I believe this is a discount here on Pitt who returns 11 starters from a 9 win team.  They actually get BC transfer at QB in Phil Jurkovec.   Pitt for sure believes that they can the Coastal here with UNC on their side.   Cincy is in a rough spot this season losing their head coach in Fickell.  They also are getting respect because of their name here but they only return 8 total starters.  Cincy blew out Eastern Kentucky last week which also gives some value here in the line.  I think much tougher competition spells trouble. 

Oklahoma is going to be a sexy option for the public betters this weekend as they won 73-0 vs Arkansas St.  IMO this is a great sell high spot here now following that type of performance.  SMU is a team who won 7 games last season with 4 losses by one score.  They also took care of business last week against LA Tech covering a big 21 number.  Public perception here on the Sooners and I believe SMU puts up a nice fight. 

I'm gonna ride with Maye here. at QB.  If you are suppose to be the next big hyped thing I believe you gotta win games like this.  UNC defense was absolutely brutal on defense as everyone knew that so they can't get any worse.  I also think we are getting a discount here because it is a neutral field. Rattler and the Gamecocks here are over matched.  

I really like Toldeo here against Illinois.  Illinois  is coming off a great season as they won 8 games.  I just think they will be really up against here vs. the best team in the MAC in Toledo.   Toldeo does bring in a high power offense averaging over 31 points per. game last season.  The Big Ten West is a brutal division as we witnessed last night with Nebraska and Minnesota.  Toledo will be hungry here and I believe they are live to win outright.

This Midd Tennessee team had a great season going 8-5 and winning their bowl game.  They have 13 starters returning here and remember this team went on the road last season and beat Miami. Fla. Granted I know there is a big difference but the fact they did that shows a lot.  I'm not on Bama this season and I think they will have some offensive issues.  They are going to win this game no doubt but covering 40 plus out of the gate with a lot of question marks is crazy to me.  I will take the points here as I think Midd Tenn can score 10 and get the cover.

I'm putting a lot of faith here in first year head coach. Eric Morris.   He comes from the tree of Mike Leach and he does have a solid group returning with 17 total starters in all.  I also really like these smaller schools hosting a school from the Power 5 conference as they really get up for these games as a dog.  Cal was a horrible team last season winning 4 games.  They return a lot of starters as well but man this team on defense was so bad you can't lay any number with them on the road.  

I think this. play will be on the popular side but it's just a difference in talent here.  What Boise likes to do is run the ball and that will fed right into the hands of this stout Washington defense.  I also think Washington led by Penix at QB will be able to score fairly easily.  I love this Huskies team and they are a dark horse to make the. playoffs.  

We will take Utah tonight laying a short number here at home.   I believe most will look at this because of their stud QB Cam Rising being out tonight and take a team from the SEC.  Utah is loaded here on defense with 7 returning players.  Florida is a team that. returns 7 total starters from 6 wins last year.  I also very much dont like their QB transfer in Mertz from Wisconsin.  I like the revenge angle here. for Utah as they blew this game last season on the road.  Utah makes a statement without their best player tonight. 

So both teams here are frauds I think it's fair to say. Both teams have battled injuries here all season long but the Chargers everyone like to appoint them as a great team but I dont see it.  I think a brutal matchup for the Chargers on the defense side here as the Titans will just run them into the ground.  This game is a coin flip and I see it a FG or less either way.

I like the Bucs here in this game.  Let's just look at the value here last week the Bengals were bet down to -4 @ home vs the Browns.  Bucs are clearly better than the Browns.  Now though you're telling me that the Bengals are laying 3.5 on the road against a very desperate team?  Brady's back is against the wall here and I think they show up

Love the Raiders here this week.  I know most people will look at the Raiders from last Thursday and think that they are done.  Well they might be but I think they show up here for this one as they do still have a shot to make the last spot for the playoffs.  I expect a major gameplay change here this week with a lot more passes.  Patriots were just the same here last week on Monday night vs the Cardinals and no one in their power rankings has the Cardinals the same as the Raiders.  

I dont wanna overreact to the Jags last week with an impressive win, but I think they might have found something.  I know they benefitted a lot from the turnovers but that win was probably a season saver for them.  Cowboys have also struggled not just last week vs the Texans but people are forgetting that the Cowboys were only up 2 against Colts last in the 3rd and it was such a misleading game.  Cowboys have a major look ahead with the Eagles on deck.

I like the Jets here this weekend.  This to me is the Best sell high buy low spot of the week on any game.  The Lions have won 4 of their last 5 and did beat the Vikings but it was a misleading game with Cook fumbling inside the 5 yard line.  The Lions away from home their offense only averages 15 ppg.  The Jets defense is still playing hard here and the outdoors I think Goff struggles.  Jets last 3 losses are all on the road last two home games they won both including the Bills.

Grab Now

Grab Now

I really like the Bills here this weekend.  First, they are off the mini bye after playing Thursday.  I also love them for the revenge angle here and Allen will be really motivated because he cost them in the first meeting.  I also think the betting public is a little off on the Bills right now also as they really haven't been dominating to many.  Well go back to the first meeting and they were -10.5 @ the Jets.  We are getting a cheaper price here at home with a backup QB starting in White.  I dont think White will be able to do much vs a lot better D than he faced in the Vikings last week.  

Look I have backed the Steelers quite often and had them last week in a winner.  This is just too much love here for them this week.  The look ahead here was Ravens -4.5 and now that Lamar is out it has flipped this many?  Crazy overreaction considering that Huntley the backup isn't your normal backup.  This is still a division game and the Ravens still have a ton to play for.  I will take the full FG here

Really like the Raiders here this week.  This team many considered to be down and out after such a disappointing start.  However, the last two weeks they have rattled off too wins both in OT.  That is playing with a ton of grit here.  The main key here is that the Chargers rush D won't be able to stop Jacobs at all who is having by far his best season ever.  I like the direction of the Raiders here and this is a rematch from week 1 which the line was 3.5.  Wrong team favored here give me the Raiders.

I think this game should be a PK or the Bengals -1 which is giving us a good amount of value here.  Yes, everyone will be saying the Chiefs have revenge on their mind and sure they do, but does that automatically mean they will win?  I'm not buying it here.  The Chiefs are on a 5 game winning streak which people will like but they have only covered once in the last 7 games.  Bengals offense getting Chase back and I don't think the Chiefs can handle it.  Remember a couple weeks back how the Chargers moved it just having Allen back and Mike Williams left that game.  Bengals have way more weapons here

I will gladly take the Giants here.  Look, I know Washington is hot but now laying points on the road in a division game?  This is just crazy here.  The Giants have lost 3 of their last 4 so clearly this line is just recent bias.  Look Washington escaped last week vs the Falcons as they turned it over in the red zone late.  The betting pubic will be all over the Commnanders here also.  Really good value here with the Giants in the home dog role.

So the narrative here is that the Ravens are struggling but yet many still have them easily inside the top 10 overall which I agree with.  The thing here is that the Ravens have struggled to gain margin here but they are playing a team that now has completely quit.  The Broncos were pathetic last week in getting beat bad by Darnold and the Panthers.  Once the Ravens get up here I think they keep their foot down.  

I will take the Patriots here tonight.  Bills just haven't looked right the last month even though they have won two straight.  I wasn't impressed at all vs the Lions so I wonder if something is wrong with Allen.  The Patriots here home division dog with a good defense.  I also think Mac is continuing to improve as the season goes on here.   Give me the Patriots.

I like the Eagles here in this match up.  I think last Thursday was the season ender for the Packers.  You are also hearing now that Rodgers is playing with a broken thumb.  I dont see any extra motivation from him going forward.  Eagles last week were laying 7 on the road to the Colts.  Is there really a difference between Colts and the Packers?  I say no which is now giving us a discount on Philly.  Sunday night prime time and the Eagles haven't covered 3 straight so the public doesn't want them anymore.

This is just too many here for the Niners to be laying.  First, they are coming off a tough spot here playing a division rival on Monday night. in very high altitude which one. can argue that this particular game would take more out of you than normal.  The Niners since the Mccaffrey trade are riding hot winning 3 straight but now the value is too much.  There were laying this much vs the Cardinals with a backup QB.  They also have major games on deck with Miami and Tampa.  Saints D can keep this close.

I will take the Chiefs here in this game.  The Rams are now clearly done for the year after last week and now they are starting a practice squad player at QB.  I don't think the Rams really care anymore.  Will the Chiefs over look them and pump the brakes, I dont believe so.  Mahomes is too good to let them look ahead here.  I see the Chiefs in the 30's here and the Rams struggling to score more than 10, maybe a garbage one late.  

I believe that the Bucs are a play on team here.  They are coming off the crazy come back a few weeks back vs the Rams that really saved their season.  They follow it up with a dominating win vs a hot Seahawks team.  They are in lead of their division and I don't believe that is be accounted for here.  Browns seem to have given up IMO.  They are off back to back big games vs Miami and Buffalo.  I do think Watson coming back is a distraction as well.  Bucs D will dominate and Brady shouldn't have an issue spreading it around the field. 

I have no problem laying it here with the Jets.  By all accounts it. sounds like Fields will be out this game. With Wilson being out also I think that most will be afraid to back them.  However, I like that the fact he is because I think the D will play even harder here.  Fields just means the world to this team and how they are using him now.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears were skunked in this game.  Mike White is more than capable and most would make the point that it isn't a downgrade.

I like the Chargers here on Sunday night.  I think they keep this close and want revenge from week 2 loss in a game they should have won.  Granted they were a lot healthier then but that line was 3.5 at KC and now 6 at the Chargers.  Allen is suppose to be back which I think is huge for the offense.  The Chiefs are also a team that keeps people hanging around like last week with the Jags.  Chargers on primetime here in the dog role, I really like them.

The Steelers are just a different team with TJ Watt playing. We saw it again last week as Pitt was in full control vs the Saints and they went off favored.  Now the Bengals are still without Chase and yes I know they want revenge but the line hasn't been adjusted enough here IMO.  This is a tough division game and I think Pitt and Pickett have improved since game 1.  

Really like the Cowboys here this week.  The Cowboys are off a weird loss blowing double digits in the 4th quarter while the Vikings are off the weird come back win being down double digits.  The Vikings last. week was. extremely fluky and the Vikings defense here will be exposed on the gourd with Pollard.  Cowboys will also bring a ton of pressure here on Kirk.  I also think with the Packers already losing on Thursday that the Vikings are very comfortable in first and can afford losses

I like the Colts here this weekend.  I know last week they beat a bad Raiders team but it's become very clear that Matt Ryan is a massive upgrade over Ehlinger.  It feels like the Colts saved their season last week and they are back to being motivated to get back to 500.  They established the ground game with Taylor and the Eagles struggled against the run Monday night as Washington really controlled the clock.  Eagles got their first loss and I'm curious how they respond.  Colts D is above average and with the other injuries on offense I think Colts are live here 

The betting public will be all over the Bears here.  Over the last 4 weeks they have scored the most points in the league which is very impressive.  I think here on the road is a great spot to fade the Bears here and their defense is really really bad.  They are 28th vs the run and the Falcons are 4th in the league running the ball.  Atlanta with extra time here off the Thursday night game I think they get it done.

The Jets have been great going 4-0 on the road this season.  I also think that win over the Bills prior to the bye week will play a lot in peoples heads here.  The thing is though they were 3 point dogs vs the Patriots at home and lost.  I know it was misleading for sure and a pick 6 got called back but the Pats own the Jets and I see it happening again here.  Jets offense just isn't as explosive without Breece Hall.

I like the Trojans here quite a bit.  I know that UCLA lost last week which was a look ahead spot here but I think UCLA has been pretty lucky in terms of schedule.  Their tough true test on the road at Oregon they lost by double digits.  USC defense is the worry part here but it's not like UCLA has a stout D either.  The better O wins this game and I believe that Lincoln will wanna make a statement in year 1 of this rivalry.

I like Arkansas here in this matchup.  This is just a brutal spot for Ole Miss who's coming off the Bama loss which was an all out effort and a possibly chance to win the SEC West.  This is senior day for Arkansas and they are still hungry to make a bowl game.  This low line is indicating the bad spot here also. 

I like the Gophers here this week.  Look Iowa has won a couple and last week they did easily vs Wisky but their offense is still pathetic averaging 2.4 yards per play last week.  Iowa has had the Gophers number but with the short price here I think its great buy low spot as Minnesota can still win the West as well so they have motivation here also. Gophers are 5-1 ATS at home this season.

Clemson is locked into the ACC title game here so it's really hard to see where their motivation will come from to blow out a team.  Clemson also isn't built that way to build big margins of victory.  Miami is 3-1 ATS on the road this season. I like the fact they are coming off a nice road win last week showing me they are still playing hard.  Miami covers this huge number

We know how brutal of a spot it can be to play at WVU.  I know that Kansas St still have a lot to play for but they were just 2.5 point dogs on the road to Baylor last week and are now laying more than a TD?  This is also senior day here and I think they are motivated to make a bowl game also. WVU is a sneaky home dog remember a few weeks back they almost pulled the upset over TCU.

Simply too many points for the Niners to be laying.  Yes, they are off the bye and they have a ton of hype around them now with the addition of McCaffrey.  This Niners team does have major potential but a full TD here?  The Chargers were only 3.5 dogs prime time @ Chiefs.  Chargers have a lot of injuries I get it but Herbert will move the ball and the addition this week of Allen back will provide big help.  

I'm gonna lay it here with the Rams who have flat out owned the Cardinals.  I think this team is trending downwards big time.  I know the Rams offense have failed them miserably but the Cardinals dont exactly bring the best D against them.  The Rams are 9-1 SU vs the Card L10. I trust Mcvay here to get it right

I like the Browns here in this spot.  They are off their bye week after playing and beating their divines rival in the Bengals.  Their defense was very impressive in that game and I think they can contain the red hot Miami offense.  The other thing here is that the Dolphins defense has been getting gashed and it showed last week vs the Bears who I had in a winner.  I think the Browns really dominate the possession here and long drives and that spells upset.  Bad matchup here for Miami

I like the Texans here in this game.  They are coming off the mini bye after playing on Thursday night vs the Eagles.  They actually looked pretty impressive in that game only being outgunned by 57 yards and they did cover.  The Giants have by far been one of the most surprised teams but now laying this many?  This isn't the role you want the Giants in.  They were favored in one game and it was against the Bears -3 way early in the season when the Bears were bad and they only won by 8.  The Giants aren't a team that can get margin.

Steelers are off the bye and I like them here.  I think we see a switch in the playbook here for Pickett and Warren to young guns who can be major contributors.  The Saints haven't won a road game period and yet they are favored?  The Steelers have also played a brutal schedule here with their last 5 being the Jets, Bills, Eagles, Bucs & Dolphins.  Wrong team is favored here.

I like the Broncos here this week off their bye week.  Having the extra time off that London win I think was important for this team to look forward to the 2nd half of the season.  The main thing here is that the Titans played the Chiefs close on Monday night and they are getting respect because of that.  Denver can really lock you down on the outside and I think they do the same here with Malik Willis who hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball down field.  Denvers D keeps them in it and eventually Russ makes one play to win it

Love the spot here for the Bucs.  This is literally a spot of the year type.  They have had extra time now after playing last Thursday and honestly I love tat Brady's divorce is behind him and final.  I think that takes something off his shoulders here.  Rams were in a great spot last week vs the Niners off the bye with revenge and they looked like the same old team that relies heavily on Kupp.  Kupp is also not 100% here and that is a huge factor.  Brady bounces back in a big way this weekend

I will back the Bears this weekend here against the Dolphins.  Yes, I know there is some concern with the Bears making trades to a defense that was already average at best.  You can't ignore how much different this team has looked after their bye week.  Last week they came back to make it a 5 point game with Dallas in the 2nd half and then the weird fumble scoop and score happened and it was pretty deflating.  That was a legit top 10 and probably top 5 defense in the league in Dallas they were moving the ball on.  Dolphins defense was horrible last week giving up 27 vs Lions I the first half.  Dolphins outside on this grass will slow them down a little bit here. I do think both teams score more here than what is expected.  I see a 24-28 type of game. 

The Vikings have been one of the luckiest teams in the league to say the least.  They are 6-1 and escaped one last week as the Cardinals were down 2 getting the ball back then they muffed the punt return setting up a short field for the Vikings to score a TD.  Commanders are riding high here with Heineke at QB.  I really think Washington can move the ball up and down the field on them here vs a very weak secondary.  I think Washington wins this outright.

The Bengals are such a weird team to try and figure out but this feels like the ultimate discount on them here.  Yes, they looked horrible on Monday night vs the Browns.  This just has seems like a great spot here to back Burrow and get it done against a bad team.  The Panthers are in a tough spot I believe here after two huge efforts vs division rivals.  We are getting a discount because they did cover both of those games.  Bengals put it to the Falcons a few weeks back and yes that was with Chase I know, but the Panthers and Walker here did a step back this week.

I love the bounce back spot here for the Raiders.  They were flat out embarrassed last week vs the Saints as they didn't score, heck they barely crossed the 50.  They stayed in Florida this week as I think they know their season is on the line.  There was also the rumor of the flu going. around so if that had any legs to it then I think more of a reason to back them here this week.  Also the jags just continue to find close games to lose every time.  I know the Jags have done the London trip a lot but after that loss I just wonder where their heads are.  

A lot of this IMO is because of last week and what Kansas St did to Oklahoma St.  Texas just has the better athletes here overall plain and simple.  I'm not a believer in the Wildcat team white yet. They need to prove it after that type of win last week to see if they can do it back to back.

Cute is just reeling right now losing back to back games and this line is giving you the indication of that.  Pitt returning back home after back to back losses and are hungry here.  

Wrong team is favored here in this game.  Wazzu only road win was @ Wisky and I just don't think they are that good.  Stanford is nothing special either but shouldn't be a dog here.  This team did just beat ND two weeks ago on the road.  

Oklahoma getting too much credit for winning at Iowa St lat week and they didn't look impressive at all.  Baylor has much better offense and will score against this very bad Sooner defense.  Baylor has won 4 of their last 6 with one being a 3 point loss and the other to Oklahoma St who they were favored over.  I think they should be favored here