For the average college football fan I'm not sure people realize how big of rivalry this actually is.  They brought Fleck in here for this stage.  While he doesn't have what he needs for this year he will be throwing everything at this Badgers team to get a win.  Wisconsin is a great team but they aren't flashy.  With the styles of these two teams I think covering this much is a tough task I will gladly take the points 

The SEC conference is down big time this year.  So we have IMO an overrated Aubrun team who played the toughest team in Georgia at home and blew them out.  So I think people realize that and we are seeing the line being adjusted in favor of Auburn.  Well, for me you have to prove a lot more than that as Bama has owned this conference forever.  Last year this line was 20.5 so your telling me in a years time that Bama got worse and Auburn got this much better?  I'm not buying it.  Let's lay the points with Bama here

Since Ohio St went on the road a few weeks and were embarrassed at Iowa we have seen a whole different team.  It's almost like that loss really woke them up.  Right now they are playing like a top 4 team in the country scoring 100 points combined their last 2 games.

I was against Michigan last week at Wisconsin in a easy winner.  This team just doesn't pass the eye test because their offense is so bad.  They will be without their starting QB here as well.  Every time Michigan has had to play a better team they loss plain and simple.

Another key factor is that the Buckeyes have styles points to play for here because they can still make the football playoffs.  Urban Meyer will have no problem running up the score on Michigan 

I love the Bruins here showing a lot of heart last week actually out playing their rival in USC last week.  Both teams in fact are coming off their rivals with Cal coming off Stanford.  UCLA still has plenty of motivation trying to make a bowl game and I think they will respond having a new coach on the sidelines.  UCLA is a perfect 5-0 at home and believe they can handle Cal who has been pretty poor on the road. 

Lets take Virginia here as I think we are getting good value with a team trending in the right direction.  I had this team last week at Miami and they were up two touchdowns in the 2nd half but kinda fell apart.  I dont think with what we have seen from Va Tech here recently they should be this big of favorite.  They should have lost last week vs Pitt who we know is a bad team.  They have only covered the number twice in the last 7 games and one of those was even lucky.  

Frost has these guys on a mission here to finish the season perfect.  This is a big time rivalry and UCF will want revenge.  Both teams have great offenses there is no hiding that, but the motivation is the angle I am playing.  UCF will not be stopped here and I think South Florida is being a little over valued because they have survived some very close games as being big favorites which suggests they might be getting lucky 

No choice but to take Dallas.  To me this is a huge over reaction as the Cowboys have lost to the Falcons and Eagles the last two games.  They are easily two of the better teams not only in the NFC, but the NFL.  I know Dallas has some key injuries but I think this team is simply due and are tired of hearing about everything.  I will take Dallas and believe they respond in a must win situation 

I did grab this line early as I expected it to drop but obviously that was before the QB change for the Bills.  They are now benching Taylor, but I still think this game could be close.  You can't fault Buffalo for last week the Saints now look like them old selves and are playing at a very high level.  The Chargers still don't have any home field advantage and you can expect more Bills fans at this game.  Rivers is also banged up as well even though he is expected to play.  I think the Bills can still keep this close enough 

Really like the Bears here as I think the Lions are vastly over rated.  Look back at last week and the Brows lead the game in the 4th quarter but failed to cover the 2 touchdowns.  The Bears stats are a lot better than their record.  Remember this Bears team at home has beat Carolina and Pittsburgh.  They also took the Vikings down to the wire.  Bears win outright 

I'm not buying into the Jags here and the hype.  The Browns should have easily covered last week leading the Lions into the 4th quarter.  They had a huge miscue before half as well that cost them at least a field goal.  I don't trust Bortles on the road at all.  

I know Winston is still out but it's not like Fitzpatrick is your normal backup as he has spent plenty of time as a starter in his career.  The Dolphins just seem like a complete mess right now after they have failed to show up the last two games after getting blown out on Thursday night against Baltimore.  Tampa clearly hasn't gave up evidence with a win last week.  They should have no problem here and they also get Evans back in the lineup

I dont believe in Hundley leading this Packer team.  Let's face it last week the game was changed when Fox challenged the call be a touchdown and was over turned for a fumble and touchback.  If it wasn't for that the Bears probably win the game.  Flacco is just so much better also than Hundley you can't ignore that.  The Ravens are still in the mix for a wild card spot in the AFC.  This is a must win game here IMO and believe they get the job done 

I know this is a big number here in a rivalry game but USC is just by far the better team.  Since USC got destroyed at Notre Dame all they have done is cover every game.  This team hasn't gave up and they still have possible PAC 12 title in their grasps.  The key here is simple and that is UCLA won't be able to stop USC on offense at all.  We have seen Rosen struggle when he gets behind also because he starts to take more risks and leads to turnovers. 

I really think Oregon is going to have a ton of motivation here with their QB returning.  I don't think the betting public will want anything to do with them.  They also will want to make a bowl game so a win here would make that possible.  Oregon has played 3 of their last 4 games on road and to no surprise with a backup QB then they lost them all.  Him being back I think rallies the team in a big win 

Call me a sucker here for this one but Arizona St has way more talent and this Oregon St team that has 1 win on the season and quite frankly don't care about this game.  They care about next week having their rival Oregon on deck.  Their defense is just flat out awful as they give up 5.4 yards per run and 6.5 per pass attempt. 

Miami is coming off their biggest win in how many years last week just throttling Notre Dame and not to mention the week before was another big win over Virginia Tech.  It's pretty safe to say that Miami wno't have the same intensity as they have the last two weeks.  I also think Miami has a way of playing down to teams as we saw them barely escape with a win over a terrible UNC team just a few weeks ago.  Virginia isn't world beaters but I think they can move the ball and keep it closer hre

Really like the Badgers here against Michigan.  Wisconsin simply doesn't get much love because of their style of play.  All they have done so far is just dominate teams and it's because of their #1 overall ranked defense.  Michigan does have a good defense as well but the two quality teams they have played in Michigan St and Penn St both were losses.  I do love the spot for Wisconsin as they will want to earn style points with the committee and Michigan as the biggest look ahead you could ask for with Ohio St on deck

This line will go up now that we know Zeke is suspended here.  I also believe we get a desperate Falcons team here that has played 3 straight road games.  This is a must win game for them as they go to Seattle next week and they will treat it as that.  You also can't ignore the fact that the Falcons are the best yards per play team in football once again, but they aren't winning so the public will have nothing to do with them here.   Ryan shouldn't have a problem picking apart the Dallas secondary 

Like the Bills here at home in the underdog role.  The Saints as most know thrive in the dome but now traveling in cold weather here against a Buffalo team that is a perfect 4-0 at home this season.  They have the extra time here after following a division loss.  I think the Saints have dodged some bullets here recently.  I was on the Saints last week in a easy winner but look at the teams here.  The Bucs Bears Packers (no Rodgers) Miami and Detroit.  This will be their toughest test and they don't deserve to be favored here.  

In no way do I want to lay double digits with the Detroit Lions.  I think this team has been very lucky benefiting from turnovers early in the season and they dodged one last week with Rodgers being out.  The Browns are coming off their bye week from London in a game vs the Vikings which they lead at half.  Detroit also doesn't present a problem on the defensive side here I will take the double digits 

At this point I don't think there is a choice but only to back the Bears here.  They are coming off their bye week and would love nothing more than to pound a Packer team just like what we saw from the Lions last week.  The fact that the Packers were coming off their bye week at home on Monday night and that was the product we saw.  I think there is a lot to be concerned about.  The Bears still have hope here for the 2nd half of the season and I think we see a huge effort here

I was against Oklahoma in a loss last week against their rival Oklahoma St.  There were two key things that happened I felt that really shifted momentum.  Early in the game OU fumbled was return for TD but over ruled as an incomplete pass instead.  Late in the game 1st and goal Oklahoma St had a chance to take the lead and Rudolph throws and INT which ultimately did them in.

I'm really not sold at all on this OU defense I think they are frauds giving up 6 yards per play compare that to the best defense in the Big 12 in TCU who gives up just 4.9.  

I love how TCU responded last week after losing to Iowa St in a nice bounce back game they took care of business against Texas.  7 points is a ton for a team with no defense and given the magnitude of this game.  

Lines that really make you scratch your head huh? So we have Iowa coming off their win of the season on a national televised game blowing out Ohio St.  I'm not sold on Ohio St this year and think they are overrated so I'm not gonna over react and give Iowa all the credit here.  Iowa decided to open up the playbook for once and it clearly caught the Buckeyes off guard.  Let's remind you also Ohio St was coming off a huge comeback win over Penn St the week prior.  

Wisconsin is a team that doens't get any love at all because they aren't flashy they have no stand out NFL players.  All they do is simply play every week and win.  They are catching Iowa at the right now and the Hawkeyes are no longer a surprise team.  Iowa on the road this season is 0-3 ATS.  

All the love is gone for Georgia Tech now after their hot start to covering 6 starting.  The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home and are catching Virginia Tech at the right time.  

I think after last week the Virginia Tech loss will serve as hangover as they went to Miami and just got beat down.  Tech still has plenty of motivation here IMO wanting to playing for a bowl game.  Having the hangover and playing an option type of team isn't the ideal situation you want so I think Tech wins this game SU.  

The Gators are done for the year.  If you didn't see last weeks results @ Missouri you should look that up for yourself.  

People may say well South Carolina has nothing to play for here.  If you remember Will Muschamp use to coach @ Florida so you can guarantee he would love to pour it on the scoreboard here.  This South Carolina team I had last week in a easy cover and a good effort against Georgia.  The Gators also have a laundry list of injuries.  Their season is over take the Gamecocks. 

Talk about a very frustrating last two weeks for Penn St.  They had a lead for almost the whole game @ Ohio St to only lose in the final seconds and then travel to Michigan St last week and suffer another devastating loss by 3 to Sparty.  

I just think given the situation and results of the last two games that it's going to be very hard for Penn St to be excited in this game as their post season playoff and Big Ten conference hopes are over.  This will also be an early kick here which I think benefits Rutgers as I could see Penn St just going through the motions.  

The thing here also is that Rutgers has been undervalued here is that Rutgers is 7-2 ATS this year and have covered 4 straight.  In fact they have won 3 of their 4 last games outright.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence and have over achieved but the markets haven't reacted to them.   

How much is left in the tank here for NC St?  They are coming off back to back huge efforts both in losing outcomes against Notre Dame and Clemson.  Now their season in their eyes is over and I don't think the motivation will be there.  

This young Boston College team is having the season of their lives and would love nothing more to beat another ranked team this season.  Also a win here would make them bowl eligible as well.  I also really like the fact that they are coming off a bye week.   

I'm going to roll with the Cyclones here.  I faded them last week at West Virginia coming off their huge upset win over TCU and that worked out.  I will back them as I think Oklahoma St will be deflated here coming off an emotional loss against their rival Oklahoma.  Iowa St by far has the better defense here and with them catching 7 here suggest that Oklahoma St is equal to TCU but that clearly isn't the case.  I think people fall in love with high octane offenses.  I also think the fact that Iowa St is playing the underdog role this season and still have a legit shot at the Big 12 title game gives them all the motivation.

So this North Carolina team poured their hearts out prior to their bye week against Miami and came up short.  For a team that has 1 win on the season you think these kids really have much motivation after their possible upset of the year was so close?  I don't think so.   

Pit is also coming off their bye week here and I think they will be motivated here trying to make a bowl game sitting at 4 wins right now.  I know Pitt doesn't have the greatest defense but it's not like UNC brings a power house offense to the mix.  I like where Pitt is trending here winning their last two games outright as dogs.  UNC is being out gained by over 100 yards per game.  Pitt should have no problem here 

I like Ohio here tonight catching points as this is the biggest game in the MAC for the year.  Both teams are in first place and this will probably be the preview for the MAC Championship game.  

Ohio has out performed expectations in the ATS column going 7-2 ATS and 4-1 ATS at home.  While I know Toledo is a strong program there is no arguing that I just think they have a had a lot easier road so far in MAC play.  Also, since they have covered 4 straight the line is being favored toward them.  I see a really close battle here and think this game should be a PK

This is the Packers season on the line here coming off their bye week.  Hundley has had plenty of time here to prepare and given the fact this is a prime time game I expect a huge effort from Green Bay.  I don't trust this Lions team at all laying points.  This team could easily have just 1 win as 2 of their 3 were pretty lucky.  Let's take the division home dog here

You have to be very impressed with what we have seen from Dallas the last two weeks.  They seem to get a lot out of their bye week blowing out the 49ers and then really taking to their division rival the Redskins.

They are catching the Chiefs on a short week here with them coming off the Monday night football game.  The main key here now is that Zeke is going to play and what does Dallas do best that is run the football.  What do the Chiefs struggle against that is the run giving up 4.9 yards per rush.  This is a huge game for Dallas and I think they respond here

No choice but to take the Seahawks here as they are going to ride the momentum of last weeks thrilling victory in the final seconds against Texans.  

They actually get some relief here playing Washington as they might be the most injured team in the league.  They are without both TE's, a couple starting OL, maybe Crowder their WR plus many more.  I just don't see how they can move the ball on offense here at all.  

Maybe I am way off here, but the Jags always seem to get a lot of love, but with Bortles at QB I can't lay this.  This line is saying that the Jags are better than the Steelers and the Bengals took serious money going off as 4 point dogs @ Pitt.  

Jags also don't have much if any home field advantage here as they are 0-2 this season just averaging 16 ppg at home.  Their defense gets a lot of credit but they do give up 5.2 yards per rush.  I think the Bengals defense is more than respectable and will take the points

Let's go with the Saints here in a division rivalry game against the Bucs.  The Bucs have been very disappointing to say the least and a large part of that is because of their secondary.  Well if you have a bad secondary against the Saints especially playing on their field it's going to be a long day.  

Winston just hasn't taken the step forward here as what most people thought.  He has a combined 8 turnovers on the season with just 10 touch down passes.  

The Saints are playing with a lot of confidence here winning 5 straight games and I don't think they will have a problem here against a very bad defense 

Let's take the Titans here coming off their bye week looking to go to 5-3.  I think the Ravens are very over rated here as most people are remembering their Thursday night blowout win over the Dolphins.  The Ravens have one of the worst passing offenses only averaging 4.8 yards per pass attempt.  I also think that Flacco isn't 100% if you remember he took a nasty shot to the head last week as he attempted to slide.  The Ravens are still banged up with a lot of injuries.  Titans should have no problem holding their offense down

Was really surprised by this number as I think Arizona St bounces back here in a big way after playing terrible against USC last week.  Colorado really doesn't pose a threat here and are getting a lot of respect after blowing out Cal last week who is the 2nd worse team in the PAC 12.  This Colorado team destroyed ASU last year and I really like the revenge angle here as well.  The Buffs only two conference wins have came against the 2 worst teams in the conference this number shouldn't be an issue for the Sun Devils

I just think the Rams here are the much better team in this game.  They aren't getting much respect for several reason, but the fact they are favored and Wyoming has covered 5 straight games tells you something.  Colorado St has had a rough schedule stretch here playing 3 option teams in a row.  Wyoming doesn't have much of an offense here and the Rams really can move the ball.  So I think once the Rams get up it's going to be very difficult for them to play catch up

Love Oklahoma St here in this rivalry match up against the Sooners.  Oklahoma is getting a lot of respect here in my opinion since they did go on the road and win @ Ohio St, but that was early in the year.  Oklahoma defense is very very shaky giving up 8.0 yards per attempt while Oklahoma St averages over 10.0 yards per pass attempt.  I know this series has been OU recently I also think that is played into the line.  Oklahoma St also has the better defense that ranks 35th and OU pass defense ranks 87th.  The Cowboys get revenge here

Have no choice but to take the Gamecocks here getting all these points.  Georgia is now ranked #1 in the football college playoff so they don't need to impress the committee anymore here and just need to win go forward.  

I don't think South Carolina is getting enough credit on the defensive side of the ball here holding teams to 5.3 yards per play.  They are very good against the run as well just giving up 3.8 yards per run.  Georgia also has their biggest game of the season to date on deck next week @ Auburn. 

The love for Iowa St is just way too much for me right now.  While yes, this is a great story and Campbell deserves a ton of credit and probably just sealed the deal on coach of the year last week.  Iowa St is in the toughest spot of the year right now after a huge upset over TCU and now traveling to a tough place in Morgantown and the will be more than motivated here.  It's also worth noting that West Virginia played Oklahoma St pretty tough last week but the 5 turnovers simply did them in.  They are catching Iowa St at the right time

This Washington St team has been one you look to back at home and fade on the road.  So they have laid two eggs on the road first @ Cal, but during that game they had 7 turnovers.  Last week against Arizona who has been a red hot team here lately they committed 4 turnovers but still managed to rack up over 600 yards of offense.  

Stanford is 2-2 on the road but easily could be 0-4.  They barely beat Utah by 3 and last week without Love they should have lost to the worst team in the Pac 12 in Oregon St beating them by 1.  

This is also senior day for Washington St so they want to go out in style.  Also Stanford has a huge look ahead game with Washington coming to town

I know Norther Illinois is a respectable team, but Toledo this year is  just in a class by themselves in the MAC Conference.  

They are averaging 40.5 points per game and a massive 7.1 yards per attempt.  Nothern Illinois has a decent defense but they haven't faced a team like they will here tonight.  

The Huskies have been very lucky this season winning by 3 last week in OT, beating Buffalo by 1, and winning at Nebraska by 4 because they had two pick sixes in that game.  

I think Toledo puts the hammer down tonight

I think we are seeing the classic over reaction from just one game.  So last week the Cowboys come off their bye week and blowout a 49ers team that has been playing everyone close.  Then on Monday night national televised game the Redskins fail to cover against the Eagles.  So, now everyone jumps ship and thinks the Cowboys are back and maybe they are but the line has moved so much.  This line prior to results from last week were Redskins -1 so clearly last week is playing into this line.   The Redskins played tough @ Kansas City gave them all they wanted and people are forgetting they did beat the Rams @ LA.  

Let's go with the Saints here as the Bears on the road I don't trust.  First, last weeks game vs Carolina is one of the craziest wins you will see in the NFL.  The Bears didn't score an offensive TD but did score twice on defense.  I think the public perception now is that the Panthers are a good team, but I'm not buying into them.    The Bears also had had 2 other non offensive touch downs the week before.  It's safe to say they have been getting extremely lucky and will need some offense here to keep pace with Saints at home in the dome

All I needed to see was that Cam Newton interview and him walking out on the media once again when things don't go his way.  Tampa knows this division is still up for grabs and a win here will go a long ways especially with another division game next week.  The Bucs were in prime position last week against Buffalo but a late turnover cost them.  I know Tampa doesn't have a great defense but it's not like the Panthers are an offensive juggernaut right now.  This is normally a tight game but under a field goal let's take the Bucs here

I'm going to give the 49ers a shot here against the Eagles coming off a huge monday night win over a division rival.  Clearly their intensity won't be the same here and there is no motivation for them to blow the 49ers out.  They simply want to win the game and move to 7-1.  The 49ers caught the Cowboys at the wrong time last week with them coming off their bye week.  It's also worth mentioning here that the Eagles lost their best OL in Peters for the season and also their LB Hicks for the season.  I like the Niners to bounce back and cover this big number

This is the buy low sell high type of game for me.  The Falcons started off the season flying high with their offense going 3-0.  Now, they have dropped 3 straight and failed to cover in those 3 games.  

The Jets at the beginning of the season were supposed to be the worst team ever in NFL history and now are just 3.5 point dogs to a team that most thought could make another Super Bowl appearance.   You tell me where the value is.  

I think the Jets are in a tough spot here coming off back to back heartbreakers against division rivals in the Dolphins last week which they should have won and the Patriots the week before.  

I think this is great value here with Texas Tech who may have been caught looking ahead last week toward this game.  They lost to to Iowa St who has been the surprise team in the country so far.  Mind you this Oklahoma team also lost to them on their home field as well.

Oklahoma just isn't the same team from earlier in the season.  They have been just escaping with some narrow victories by beating Baylor who is terrible by just 8, Texas by 5 and Kansas St last week in the final seconds by 7.   It's also worth noting that they ad Bedlam on deck here with Oklahoma St as that could decide the title.  They just wanna win this game not reason to blow Tech out

I know the line has gone against us here, but I cant believe Tennessee is taking any kind of money.  After last week against Bama I think all their motivation is gone here.  They didn't score an offensive touchdown at all.  We all know Butch Jones will be fired at the end of the season if not before.  Kentucky will have the motivation here as they can become bowl eligible here with a win and I think this is a spot to back them.  

Just love Purude here this week as they come into this game dropping back to back road games.  Now, last week they lost to Rutgers but that was very misleading as Purdue out gained them by over 200 yards.  I think a large part of last week was because they were looking ahead to this game vs Nebraska.  

The Cornhuskers are done for period.  This team couldnt manage to get up for home games vs Wisconsin and Ohio St, I don't care if they are off their bye they have no interest here.  Purdue is eager here to make a bowl game and they need this one in order to do so.

A lot of Iowa St love going on right now.   Yes, the story is a great one and you have to give coach Matt Campbell all the credit in the world.  I just think he is running into the best team in the conference and they are pricing Iowa St as possibly the 2nd best team.  TCU won't be over looking this match up now as they know what's at stake.  

Yes, this may seem like to big number to lay because it is UCLA with the pro QB, but this team can't play a lick of defense.  Don't let last weeks results fool ya as they beat up on a injured Oregon team.  UCLA has yet to win a true road game and now have their toughest task by far.  

I think the bye week did a lot of good for the Huskies who was be more than motivated after dropping their recent game @ Arizona St.  Arizona St held them to just 7 points which was crazy because they hadn't scored under 30 all games prior.  They will bounce back here as they face a terrible and I mean terrible Bruin defense.  

I did have Notre Dame last week against USC in a easy win.  I will go against them here this week as this is a extremely tough spot for them.  

First, the line is inflated big time here as NC St is better than USC in my opinion and we are catching 7.5.  The thing here is that the Wolfpack have a lot better defense than what people realize.  The other main key is that the Wolfpack are coming off a bye here and I always think that is key especially catching a team coming off a national victory like Notre Dame last week 

Yes, we know Penn St has been a covering machine all season long and are coming off a very impressive win over Michigan.  I'm not very high on this Michigan team this year so when you look at their schedule it has been pretty easy to say the least.  

Ohio St is in the perfect situation here as they are coming off a bye with plenty of time to prepare.  Meyer off a bye almost never losses a game.  Granted Ohio St hasn't been playing the greatest competition either, but their offense is starting to come a live at the right time.  

This will by far be the biggest challenge for Penn St especially on defense which I still have questions about.  With all time to prepare and the Buckeyes season is on the line I look for them to cover this one

I would sure like to think that is Florida St team and Jimbo have a lot more fight in them and won't let the players quit on this season.  Remember just a few weeks ago this Florida St team took the undefeated Miami Hurricanes down to the wire.  I just think the talent level is to far apart.  While Boston College is doing a great job I need more points to back them here

I've been high on this Rams team from the get go this season.  So, this game is being played in London and you have to give the Rams a huge edge there for the simple fact they traveled across the pond last season and are familiar with this situation.  The Cardinals are getting a lot of respect because of Petersen and what he did last weekend which was impressive.  I don't think with the Cardinals bad OL and Rams great DL that he will have a great game.  Therefore, I don't trust Palmer in this game as we have seen him hit a wall in his career.  Rams are the real deal

Give me Notre Dame as I think they are one of the best teams in the country.  I'm not sure why USC is still taking money here.  Notre Dame is also coming off their bye week here and their QB Wimbush is probable to go.  USC was lucky to escape with a victory last week vs Utah as nearly two touchdown favorites.  The Irish only loss this season was to the undefeated Georgia Bulldogs by just 1 point.  

I did have LSU last week in a crazy come back against Auburn and they ended up winning the game outright after being down 20-0.  This isn't the role here where LSU will be successful coming off that big win and let's not over look the fact they have Alabama on deck.  Ole Miss and their QB Patterson is starting to rise here and he will be a factor.  A large part of Ole Miss early struggles were because they played 3 consecutive road games against Alabama, Auburn, and Cal. 

Really like Michigan St here as I don't think Vegas is pricing them right.  I was lucky last week to cover with Minnesota as Sparty went to their house and dominated.  So it was a little misleading there and Indiana was misleading as well as they came back to take it to OT vs Michigan.  were 7 point dogs to them on their home field and now 7 on the road to a team that won @ Michgian?  Vegas is still pricing Michigan better than Michigan St.  I think Indiana is deflated here as last week and Michigan St controls this game start to finish 

I will take Northwestern here as I think they should be favored here in this game.  They have the better defense and offense.  Iowa has been a part of some very misleading games like the Penn St game where they were out gained by over 300 yards and it came down to the last play of the game.  Illinois is by far the worst team in the Big 10 and Iowa need a late 89 pick six in the 3rd to stretch this lead out or else Illinois takes the lead there.  NW got their offense going last week racking up over 530 yards @ Maryland.  To much of this line is being played into Iowa coming off their bye week

Let's go with Texas Tech here as I think they respond in a big way here.  Last week they should have won the game @ West Virginia up 35-17 as a touchdown dog and couldn't get the cover.  Now Iowa St is getting a lot of respect because they went into Norman as 31 point underdogs an won SU, then followed up by pounding Kansas last week.  Texas Tech has big time revenge in mind also after getting embarrassed in Ames last year.

We are hearing all week now how there is something wrong with the Steelers locker room so on an so forth.  While, some of that might be true I think they respond in a big way.  Big Ben is simply too good here to have another bad game.  The offense will be able to move the ball as the Chiefs are banged up pretty good in the secondary.  I think this is a gift catching 5 considering two weeks ago this line is probably a PK.  

I'm not very high at all on this Lions team and think they are extremely over rated.  I faded them last week hosting Carolina in a win.  They have had the benefit of the turnovers so far.  As I have mentioned before those will equal out.

Detroit beat the Cardinals after they lost Johnson during that game, they beat the win less Giants and were lucky at Minnesota to face back up QB and Vikings lost their RB Cook during that game to a torn ACL.

THe Saints have responded nicely after dropping their first two games of the season.  The win over the Panthers at their place stands out big time holding that offense to 13 points.  Now the Saints are coming off a bye and I think they expose the Lions D

Yes, the Browns are terrible again surprise surprise.  I do know they have only covered one game as well.  If they can't cover in this spot I will be done with this team.  So we clearly know who the better team is in the Texans.  

One thing from last week was a change at QB in Hogan who actually provided a spark for the Browns.  Another key for me is that Watt and Mercilus are both out which is huge for this defense.  We all know Watt is probably the most important defensive player as far as spreads go in Vegas eyes.  

The Browns haven't been playing awful it was just that Kizer had turned the ball over way too many times and cost them.

I'm not sure where the 49ers hearts will be here after a hard fought loss last week @ the Colts and now this will be their 3rd straight road game with further travel here.  The Redskins are fresh here as they are coming off their bye week.  I think this Redskins team is pretty good actually.  Their only 2 losses are to the undefeated Chiefs and the Eagles who are now 5-1.  How impressive do their two wins look beating a healthy Raider team and winning @ the Rams looks very good right now.  Redskins have no problem blowing the 49ers out

Love the Vikings here in this spot catching more than a FG.  Since the Packers were able to make a major comeback last week @ the Cowboys after being down 21-6 and scoring with 10 seconds the betting public loves that and will jump on board with them.  

Let's look at this so last week the Packers are underdogs @ Dallas by 2 points.  Now this week on the road again against a division rival and a better team than Dallas and are favored by more than a field goal?  Especially considering how much better the Vikings defense is.  This makes no sense to me at all. 

I really like the value here we are getting with Arizona St given this spot for them.  When you look back at the Sun Devils their losses don't actually look that bad as they had a close loss to SDSU and Texas Tech both teams have proven them selves this year.  The Sun Devils beat Oregon SU as a 15 point underdog and followed that up by covering at Stanford losing by 10 as 17 point dogs.  Now, they are coming off a bye and have highly rated Washington coming to town which they will be ready for 

The limelight is now off PJ Fleck for a while as they have dropped two straight games to Purdue and Maryalnd.  I think Fleck will have his guys ready here as they are catching Michigan St at the right time with them coming off their huge win over rival Michigan.  The main reason for Sparty winning last week is pretty simple.  It was because Michigan had 5 turnovers to Sparty's 0.  Sparty does have some injuries here at RB and might start their 3rd stringer and this is important because of ground and pound style they play.  

This will be the divide of the Pros vs Joes.  The betting public will be all over Auburn here as they continue to climb in the rankings.  I was all over LSU early last week grabbing them at +3 at Florida and they went off as two point favorites.  

Auburn is just getting a lot of respect because of their close loss @ Clemson, but that was early in the season and the game was a little misleading as Auburn should have lost by a lot more considering they barely had above 100 total yards. 

This is a huge game here for LSU with two road games looming here and one of those is Bama.  With Auburn coming off back to back blowouts over both at home I think they will be challenged big time here as LSU does have a defense.  

Really love Tennessee here this week coming off their bye week and this is gut check time.  They were just embarrassed at home last time out vs Georgia.  Now, Jones job is on the line he knows it and I think we see a big response here

I just think this South Carolina team is very overrated especially now coming off a blowout win over Arkansas who appears to have thrown it in for the season.  That was a misleading score as South Carolina scored 21 from their defense. This is a South Carolina team that trailed 16-0 at home vs La Tech and came back to win by 1. 

I realize many have gave up on Tennessee as they haven't looked great so far.  However, I do love this spot/situation for them here and let's not forget they did beat Georgia Tech and that is their only loss of the season.  With Alabama on deck Jones can't afford a loss here 

Well the number has simply gone to high to pass up here on Cal.  Wazzu is getting to much love for me after they are coming off wins over USC and a injured Oregon team.  Remind you last week Wazzu were dogs at Oregon and now based on results they jump to over 2 touch down favorites.  

Cal was 17 point dog at Oregon two weeks ago and mind you that was a healthy Oregon team then.  So on a neutral field Wazzu should only be favored by 14 two weeks ago.  Now 16 on the road it's definitely inflated. 

This Cal team gave USC all they wanted as 17 point dogs only losing by 10 and had 6 turnovers in that game.  Give me Cal to keep it close tonight 

I think we are seeing a superstar in merge before our eyes in Watson.  He is taking this Texans team to a whole different level.  This is a big time game for them to make a statement and I believe they do here.  

Everyone is talking here about the Chiefs being the best team in football right now which gives extra motivation here to the Texans.  The public will no doubt be on the Chiefs here as they are the only undefeated team in the league and have covered every game so far.  

I'm throwing week 1 out for the Texans as they didnt start Watson and were behind the eight ball right from the get go because of the turnovers.  They should have won at New England and believe their defense is elite and will keep them in it and come away with a win

This is a great situation here with the Cowboys to have a bounce back game after losing to the Rams last weekend.  I think the motivation here for Dallas plays a huge factor since they lost to the Packers last year at home in the playoffs.  I know the main concern in the Cowboys secondary, but I think the Packers have huge OL issues so Dallas can put enough pressure on Rodgers where they won't get beat bad in the secondary.  

I want no part of the Seahawks right now as they aren't a good team by any means.  Seattle has the worst OL in all of football as we see week in and week out.  Rams have one of the best DL in all of football.

Rams are finding life with Goff right now and I see him continuing to grow here.  Their win last week at Dallas shows what this team is capable off.  They have a lethal offense right now and Gurley is showing he is an elite RB in the league.  

Seahawks only two wins came against the Niners and Colts.  Wilson is just 6-10 SU as a road dog for his career

I'm not a believer at all in these Detroit Lions.  They have benefited big time as they have the best turnover differential in the NFL.  That will likely come to a hault as the season goes on.  

Carolina I feel is quietly 3-1 on the season and believe they show up with another big performance following that huge win last week against the Patriots.  

The Lions have no running game at all only averaging 3.3 yards per rush.  Carolina only give up 4.2 yards per rush.  I think they will be in the back field all day long against the Lions an create big problems for Stafford.  

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK!

Love the Bengals here only laying 3 as the perception is the Bengals are a terrible team and the Bills are a team on the rise.  

The Bills are in a difficult spot coming off a huge win @ Falcons beating an undefeated team.  The Bills were outgained by a total of 283 yard combined their last 3  games and still won 2 of those.  That's not the sign of a 3-1 team.  The main reason they are is because of the TO differential which will likely balance itself out.  

The Bengals are being underrated because of their 1-3 start but this team hasn't lost hope as they should have won @ Green Bay in week 3.  They did come through last vs scoring 31 points.  They will provide a huge effort here wanting to gain momentum heading into their bye week which I believe they do

From what we have seen from Stanford so far this season they simply don't deserve to be this big of favorites here on the road.  They are getting way to much love because of Love teir RB who is putting together a Heisman run.  What people are missing is that this Utah team has an outstanding defense and can keep him in check.  Utah is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and oddsmakers haven't caught on.  This is a statement game for them here.  I also think the fact that Stanford has Oregon on deck is a look ahead here.

Really like the Longhorns here in a night game as I believe Herman will have this team ready knowing if they want to make a bowl game.  K St has only played two hard teams and that was Vandy which they lost 14-7 and Baylor last week who has been a major disappointment and they beat them by 13.  They were actually outgained in that game by Baylor.

Texas is a team that is vastly improving since game 1 vs Maryland.  I'm not counting that game as a huge loss because this Maryland team has been a very nice surprise so far even with all the injuries.  They had a great game @ USC in which they should have won SU as 16.5 point underdogs.  They were in a tough situation @ Iowa St on a Thursday night game and held them to 7 points for a team that was scoring over 38 a game.  

What Texas does best is stop the run what K St does best is run the ball.  You definitely have to give the edge here to Texas to stop them here since it is at home.  Everyone loves Snyder as an underdog but I'm not buying it 

No one wants any part of LSU right now after losing as 21 point favorites to Troy last week.  I think this is now a perfect bounce back spot here for them against Florida who I haven't been impressed with this year.  

I just think this Florida team is very overrated in the fact they barely beat a very bad Tennessee team and should have lost @ Kentucky.  They will also be without their best player and play maker in Callaway as he is suspended.

LSU will return their best player here in Guice which will give them a huge upgrade here on the offensive side of the ball.  

I really like this spot here for Virginia coming off a bye week after a huge 20 point road win as a 14 point underdog @ Boise St.   I  think the momentum here really carries over with that extra time off.  Duke is a team I think they have over achieved so far.  They are coming off a very hard fought game vs Miami and now have a huge look ahead with Florida St on deck.  The spot/ situation here screams to take Virginia.  Let's lay the short price here 

I really like this Georgia team a lot going forward as they are clearly the 2nd best team in the SEC and its not even close.  However now we are seeing a huge over reaction in the line here based on Georgia's results.  Let's just look at last week's results when Georgia went into Tennessee and destroyed them, but remind you they were only favored by 7.5 in that game.  Now, they have another road game here against a better team and are favored by 18?  This is a huge overreaction here to me.  Vandy is limited on offense I realize, but this is simply way to many points

Really like the Wolfpack here to make a statement on the big stage tonight.  Yes, this team has been a disappointing in terms of covering games, but they shouldn't be a dog here as this should be a PK.  I really question how good or bad this Louisville team is as they have played a bunch of cup cakes so far outside of Clemson.  The only other power 5 team was Purdue and they struggled against them.  NC ST has a very good defense here and I think they can keep Jackson in check.  I expect this line to drop throughout the day here take all the points you can grab now 

Really like the Broncos here in this match up against their rival the Raiders.  I'm not sold at all on the Raiders defense here.  They were exposed big time last Sunday vs the Redskins.  I also think tis is a great spot to back Denver after they suffered a ugly loss @ Buffalo last weekend.  The Broncos as we all know have one of the leagues best defenses and especially at home they are a tough out.  Denver gets the job done 

Little surprised this number hasn't came down.  The Giants are a team that is very very desperate right now in need of their first win.  Going 0-4 in the NFL means your season is over in a hurry.  I think they rally here and get the job done.  They did find some life on offense last week in the 4th against the Eagles in getting OBJ the ball.  I think that will carry over here.  

LOVE the Vikings here on Sunday against a division rival.  I'm not a believer in this Lions team at all and don't let the 2-1 record fool ya here as their wins were against the Lions and Cardinals.  The Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence as they might have the best defense in the NFL right now.  I think this is a huge discount especially since Bradford is out.  This line would be 6 or more.  Stafford on the road against a quality team I don't want any part of 

I think to many people were making the dolphins win over the Chargers somethin.  We now see how bad they actually are loosing to the Jets.

now the Saints went on the road and upset division rival in the Panthers last week.  Sure they were desperate but their losses were to the Vikings and Patriots, you can't fault them for that.  

Another key worth pointing out here is that Miami has had an absolutely brutal travel schedule dealing with hurricane stayed in LA longer then to New York now London?  How much actually be left in the tank? 

I also don't trust the Dolphins offense here at all.  I do like the fact the saints return WR Snead from suspension who Brees will definitely target

I think we are getting a huge discount here on the Aggies that have just found their stride after beating Arkansas in OT last week.

I'm not high on this South Carolina team at all as they were extremely lucky last to beat Louisiana Tech as they are down 13-0 going into the 4th.  They have been extremely fortunate beating NC St earlier this season despite being out gained by 258 yards.  They were also out gained by a terrible Missouri team.  They then lost to Kentucky at home. Now they have lost their best play maker in Deebo Samuel. 

Texas Am is a team yes, that hasn't looked very impressive but still have won 3 straight and could easily be 4-0 if it wasn't for that crazy come back from UCLA in week 1.  They have now found a new QB in Fond who threw for over 200 and ran for over 100 last week vs Arkansas.   

Will take the 10 points here with Miss St as they were just destroyed in a tough spot @ Georgia, following a huge blowout win over LSU as 8.5 point dogs.  I won't take anything away from them for losing last week as Georgia to me is the 2nd best team in the SEC.  

Now Auburn is a team that I feel is extremely overrated.  Yes they blew out Missouri last weekend and that team is in shambles.  They are still getting credit for playing Clemson tough even though they barely managed above 100 total yards for the game.  

This is a perfect bounce back as I feel Miss St does have a very solid defense and are also in a perfect bounce back spot.  

I like Akron here to get the job done against what looks like the worst team in the MAC right now in Bowling Green.  BG in 4 games this season have not only been out gained every game but only one of those were under 200 yards.  They have just been dominated in every aspect.  

Akron just has the better play makers here granted they are only 1-4 but they have played a lot tougher competition so far.  They were shut out against Penn St which is nothing to be ashamed off, Iowa St is much improved this season.  Akron last week were 17 point underdogs at Troy and nearly did pull the upset.  

I'm gonna go ahead and grab this one early do my write up for it.  There isn't a more deflating loss than what the Hawkeyes suffered over the weekend.  They had Penn St on the ropes as it came down to the final play of the game and Penn St needed a TD.  This Penn St team is for real.  They actually dominated the game out gaining Iowa by over 300 total yards it was a very misleading final score.  Sparty was on the hand of a bad beat here and misleading they actually out gained Notre Dame by 149 yards and lost by 10.  Figure that one out.  The main difference here was because of the turnovers as Sparty had 3 and ND had 0.  I think Michigan St bounces back here as the Hawkeyes struggle to recover from that game 

Not many probably watched the Maryland game last week but they are now down to their 3rd string QB this week.  So now we clearly aren't getting the same Maryland team that won at Texas in week 1.  While the Gophers aren't exactly the flashy team I think coach Fleck has done wonders making this team believe.  They are also coming off their bye week so they won't be over looking this game for their big ten opener.  I realize the Gophers haven't played a tough schedule but the defense has showed up so far only allowing 24 points on the season 

It's hard to figure out this Duke team this year thats for sure.  While I know the week day games home underdog are popular plays I just think they haven't seen a team like this.  The Hurricanes continue to go under the radar IMO.  They are a fresh after 2 weeks off because of the Hurricane that happened.  I know this isn't a great spot because now they do have Florida St on deck.  I think Richt will have his team read here and he knows this is a nice statement go on National TV on a Friday night. 

Really like the Cyclones here and yes both teams coming off a bye week.  Thursday night in Ames is a scary time and this team is vastly improved.

I'm not sold on Texas right now either as most are going to remember their recent game @USC in which they should have won.  With that being said most have now forgot how bad they were against Maryland in week 1 as 18 point favorites.  

I'm not sold on this Texas defense at all and really believe Iowa St will be able to move the ball here.  They have a more balanced attack than the past here.  Texas will have their hands full here  

Well gonna have a late add here.  I'm not sure how "good" the Cowboys actually are.  Their defense has taken a step back as you can throw the Giants came out the window because they are terrible. The Cardinals as we watched all weekend are a despe team and this will also be their first home game of the season which are huge positives

Give me the Titans here as the Seahawks continue to struggle on offense with no good signs going forward.  The Titans have a better defense that what most think here.  I'm also not going to fault them for losing week 1 in which they are also a 3 point favorite over the Raiders who right now is a top 5 team in the league.  Seattle ranks 26th on offense right now and just 15 on defense.  I think it's very alarming that couldn't do anything against Green Bay  and we saw ow bad that defense still is Sunday night.  Titans should be able to really control the game here on offense here as they do have the 6th ranked in the league