Sparty is flat out horrible and I don't see how they can recover from last weeks meltdown vs Illinois as they completely imploded that game.  Yes, I realize now this is Michigan St super bowl, but quite frankly I don't think this team has anything that Michigan is scared of.  Harbaugh will also have no problem here running the score up either even if it does get ugly.  Michigan's defense is solid and I expect them to create several turnovers and even a defensive TD

I had the Browns last week -2.5 in a winner over the Bills and like the spot here again tonight.  Maybe they needed a little fire under their ass to get things going.  The betting public seems to be falling a little too hard for the Steelers right now.  I think we see the Browns make serious push as crazy as that seems.

I like the Vikings here and I know most will be scared to back Cousins here in a prime time game and I get it.  I don't think these two teams are equal or Dallas is actually better which is what the line is suggesting.  The Vikings D here will be the difference in the game as they will force Dak to beat them.  The game last week for both teams were misleading and now we get the hook here with the better team

I'm taking the Browns here tomorrow.  Most will look at this line and obviously grab the 6-2 team as a road dog.  I just think the season is finally down to this game here and I believe they respond.  Browns are most definitely better than their record and have played a tougher schedule.  

So we get a home game here for both teams actually and I just think the Giants are that much better.  I know the Giants have some injury concerns but with the Jets laying that egg at Miami last week, I  think their season is toast.  Jones needs to take care of it better and last week was very misleading vs the Cowboys

This line is crazy inflated here.  Yes, both teams are off the bye here and Brees is coming back.  I can't see this game at all here in the blowout fashion. If the Falcons had gave up o their season IMO we would have seen it the week vs Seattle with a back up QB.  I think they would love nothing more to play spoiler so I believe the effort will be there

I love the Bears here tomorrow.  If you have followed me most this season I have been against them a lot and it has worked out in my favor.  I think now is the buy low time on Chicago.  The Bears D won't have any issue getting pressure on Stafford.  Also the Lions are banged up on offense and don't have a running game at the moment.  This is also the Bears season on the line here.  The effort will be here in a huge bounce back performance

Iowa St really laid an egg last game vs Oklahoma St losing as a 10.5 point favorite.  Now, they are getting 14.5?  This seems like a major and unnecessary adjustment to this line.  Iowa St to me is still the 2nd best in the league as they have a solid defense.  The difference here will come down to whether or not Purdy will take care of the ball.  I know people will argue that Oklahoma will be pissed and prime for a let down after the Kansas St loss, but that is also a dream crusher for them as they are eliminated from the playoffs in my opinion.  Iowa St can score enough here to keep this close

Odds makers are saying here that Tennessee is better than Kentucky on a neutral field and I'm not buying it at all.  The Vols have played much better as of late and have 3 of their last 4 games.  However, those games were all at home.  They need to prove it for me to back them.  Kentucky is coming off their bye and had a lot of momentum going into it with a nice win over Missouri as a 9 point dog.  This is one they will be up for again here and a nice revenge angle

I like the Badgers here in this game.  A few weeks ago this Wisconsin team was being mentioned in the playoff mix as they really looked the part.  Well, an ugly loss to Illinois followed up by a loss to Ohio St which was actually a close game half way through the third.  Both teams are off the bye week and and Wisky knows they can still play for the Big Ten Title which is what they had hoped for.  The Iowa offense is beyond pathetic and with a stellar Badger defense I think they will get after Stanley and company and make it very hard for them to move the ball.  

I love Bama here in this matchup.  All I have heard all week is LSU this and that.  This is the best LSU team in the last decade and Burrough is the front runner for Heisman, Bama hasn't played anyone.  Everyone and I mean everyone is all over LSU here.  When that happens it makes me love the favorite even more.  Bama has Tua back and I think he is at full strength.  This Bama team will be out to prove something and I think all this talk has motivated them even more.  Bama rolls here

This game here is another public dog of the week.  The world will love Kansas here as they are coming off one of the biggest wins of all college football season in beating Oklahoma as a 24.5 point underdog two weeks ago.  I think those are the types of wins though that really empty the tank.  Texas is catching them at the right time with the Longhorns coming off a loss and a bye I think they still believe they can play for the conference title so the focus will still be there

Purdue last week poured a lot into that game in beating Nebraska and that seemed to be their defining season moment. Northwestern is a bad team I get, but this is a great spot for them here as Purdue clearly isn't a powerhouse.  Northwestern has struggled big time on offense but I believe they can score some points here in this game.  Purdue is still fighting a ton of injuries here.

I really like TCU you in this game.  Baylor in my opinion is very overrated as they are coming in with an 8-0 record.  They have had a very favorable schedule here so far and were very lucky @ Oklahoma St.  TCU will be looking forward to ruining their perfect season.  TCU has the weapons here and you know this will also be a sharp vs square side

This will be one of the most public vs sharp plays of the week.  The betting public will love the Packers here laying a short number on the road with a stadium that will mostly be Green Bay fans. I just think the Chargers will start to turn around their season as last weeks win @ Chicago will be a major boost.  I'm also not a firm believer in the Packers and just really like this spot here to go against them.  They have benefited so far from a pretty easy schedule.

I know the public side here for sure, but this is now a must win game for the Browns if they have postseason hopes.  Sure, the case you can make for Denver is that Allen can't play any worse than Flacco but still this is his first start of his career and with a limited offense this will be difficult.  I think the Browns know they need to strike first here as Denver will struggle to play catch up.  I like Baker to have a nice bounce back here 

Odds makers are telling you that these teams are near equal on a neutral field?  There is absolutely no way I believe that at all.  Sure, the Panthers looked bad last week, but that was against an undefeated Niner team who is very good.  The Titans have looked better with Tannenhill no doubt but they have also been extremely lucky and should have lost their last two games, but since they didn't that is helping this line.  Carolina will control this game in a nice bounce back.

Maybe I am way off here, but how can you possibly like the Bears.  What have they shown with Trubisky under the helm for them?  The Bears have lost 3 straight games and I think players are starting to be comes frustrated especially with the offense.  The Eagles have had their struggles for sure, but they had a coming out party last game and I like to back those teams returning home.  Bears aren't a good team and the books are slow to adjust here

I love the Jags here tomorrow in London.  I think they should actually be favored here given the fact that the Texans took a major blow with Watt being done.  The texans defense wasn't exactly lighting things up to begin with and now lose him.  Also the Jags should have won the first meeting being stopped at the half yard line after going for 2.  Also worth noting that the Jags are the most familiar team traveling to London while this will be the Texans first time and that is a huge advantage.

BYU saved their season before the bye week last game as they upset Boise St at a 7 point home dog and I think we get another big effort given the fact this is a rivalry game.  BYU has played a much tougher schedule and now its getting easier for them.  Utah St coming off an ugly performance @ Air Force and I think their defense has been exposed.  I think this line comes down 

I like the Trojans here in this game as they control their own destiny here in the Pac 12 south.  This will now be the third straight game where Oregon has to bring it and I'm not sure they can be trusted.  Throw in the fact I don't trust their coach in close games and especially on the road.  USC will move the ball in the air as we saw Wazzu do last week against them.  I like USC for the upset here

I know Arkansas is nothing special but this is crazy to me that Miss St is laying this number on the road.  Arkansas has at least played two close games even though they have lost both to Texas AM and Kentucky.  Miss St on the other hand has lost 4 straight all by double digits.  I still think Arkansas is hungry for a conference win and there is no doubt they know they can win this one

I will take Washington again here which feels like the exact same thing as a couple weeks ago vs Oregon.  Washington blew that game in the final 6 minutes but now are coming off the bye and I love Coach Peterson in that role here.  I think the love for Utah is now a little high for my liking and they simply don't deserve to be favored in this spot.  

Last week my top play was Michigan and they were an easy winner blowing out ND.  I will fade ND again here as that is their dream crushing loss and I feel its tough to bounce back from here.  Also given the fact that Va Tech is coming off a bye and have quietly turned around their season. It's so tough to know where the Irish heads are at here and laying this many I have to take the Hokies

The Huskers have failed to cover now in 5 straight games and no one wants anything to do with them now and you can't blame them.  I just don't think Frost will let the guys quit on the season as they still want to at least make a bowl game.  Purdue's injuries have really caught up with them and simply they are struggling to move the ball.  After last weeks results it seems like Purdue has gave up.  This has the feeling for a get right game here for the Huskers

The 6-1 Aztecs are getting way too much love here.  This is a team that barely averages over 20 points per game.  They have been very lucky in several games but that has inflated the number here.  I think UNLV is a buy low team here for the rest of the season.  Their backup QB can sling it and I believe will put points on the board.  The style that SDSU plays will keep UNLV alive in this one 

I really love Michigan here this week.  The perception is still down on Michigan that they can't win a big game with Harbaugh as their coach.  I believe this game is the perfect storm here simply because Notre Dame is extremely overrated.  Last time we saw Notre Dame they struggled big time against a poor USC team.  I saw enough last week at Michigan isn't as bad as what the media thinks which definetly reflects what the public thinks.  Michigan wins this game fairly easily 

I simply think the wrong team is favored here in this game.  Yes, I know Texas has only lost to Oklahoma and LSU and that will be most of the others type of handicap in favor of Texas.  I will say though do they pass the eye test and the simple answer is no.  They survived two lucky scares vs Oklahoma St and Kansas and legit could have lost each of those.  TCU will create some big plays  against the weak Texas secondary.

So Michigan St couldn't have looked any worse than their last two games.  Well those happened to both be on the road and both against the two best teams in the conference in Wisconsin and Ohio St.  Sparty is now off their bye week and will be fresh here and I think in a great spot for the outright upset.  This will now be Penn's st third straight tough game following @ Iowa and Michigan last week.  These are tough stretches and spot you look to play against.  Give me Sparty and the points

I really think this Ohio St team is something special for sure.  The look ahead line here though was around 10 and now it has crossed to over two touchdowns?  Yes, they lost the game, but their season still isn't lost and I don't believe they think that either.  Ohio St hasn't seen a physical team like the Badgers in the trenches.  There won't be as many possessions clearly with the style of play the Badgers will enforce.  I think this is a great bounce back spot and a line over reaction 

Let's noot be fooled by last weeks results.  I had Illinois +31 and yes they beat Wisconsin outright, but they were outplayed in that game.  In fact Illinois has been destroyed in the box scores clearly indicating this team isn't very good.  Purdue has been plagued by injuries, but the fight is still there and that was evident last week @ Iowa.  Purdue won't have any issues moving the ball here and expect a big coming out party for the offense 

Iowa shouldn't be laying double digits here in this game.  With the line of last week against Purdue they are suggesting that the banged up Purdue team is better than NW and I don't believe it.  NW has had Iowa's number over the years and can muck it up.  This is a classic very low scoring feel to it and coming down to the last possession for someone to win.  Will take the 10

I really like this value here with the Giants. It looks like they will be returning some key pieces here in Barkley Shepard Engram which is major upgrade for them.  I also think the Cardinals are being over valued here with back to back late seconds win over the Bengals and Falcons which both could have easily been lost.  The Giants are a much improved team with Jones at QB

I love the Colts here this Sunday coming off their bye week.  I actually think both of these teams are extremely equal and therefore the value lies with the Colts here.  I think the perception here is really with the Texans that they are a lot better team.  Texans defense hasn't traveled very well on the road for the Texans giving up nearly 7 yard per play.  The Colts are also returning some key pieces on defense here which is huge.  I love the Colts here

I was on Ole Miss last week in a win as they covered @ Missouri.  I will back them again here getting 6.5 at home.  This is a competitive team here that did end up scoring 31 against Bama.  I also think this a good spot to go against the Aggies here.  They are coming off a max effort type of game vs Bama and now sit at 3-3 in the conference.  I definitely question their overall motivation here and don't think they should be favored by this much give the situation 

This Tulane team is one of the best kept secrets around this season.  They are vastly improved and it has shown as they have outgained their opponents by 2 yards per play which is huge.  Tulane just keeps winning and covering games as their only loss is to Auburn and they were competitive in that game.  Memphis is more of the household name here but they have also played some easier competition.

I love Oklahoma St here in this game.  This is a rally the team type of game with them coming off the bye week.  They entered the bye week with a sour taste in their mouths dropping a game @ Texas Tech.  Baylor is now ranked and 6-0, but they have survived two close games beating Iowa St in the final seconds and Texas Tech last week in double OT.  Both of those lucky games were at home and now this is finally a tough travel spot for Baylor here.  I actually think this line will go up so grab this number now. 

This Tulsa team is no where near as bad as their 2-4 record.  All 4 of their losses are to more than respectable teams in Michigan St, Oklahoma St, SMU, & Navy.  I think the fact that their record is bad is creating some good value.  Tulsa two weeks ago took SMU who has been a high powered machine down to the wire and should have won that game.  This is a major overreaction here with Cincy and their 5-1 record and 5-1 ATS record.  

I simply believe the wrong team is favored here in this game.  Washington has been a tough team to read this season there is no doubt about it.  Oregon has only played one true road game @ Stanford and they didn't look that great.  I think the perception of both teams is a huge factor here.  Also Oregon lost their stud TE who was also their best receiver in Breeland which is bigger than most would think.  I like the Huskies to win outright

There is no doubt that Louisville is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They will obviously be very motivated for this game with Clemson coming to town and you better believe it that they haven't forgot last years super ugly loss.  Clemson is a very good team taking nothing away from them, but what is the motivation for them here in this early kick?  I think Louisville can get to 17 points or so and if they do they will cover this game easily.

This is the ultimate sandwich/ look ahead spot you can ask for here.  Wisconsin it just steam rolling teams right now and the betting public is most definitely in love with them.  They are coming off another 38-0 shut out over Michigan St but they have their biggest game on deck next weekend with Ohio St.  They are clearly looking forward to that game.  Illnois is a improved team and while they still aren't good, we don't need them to be.  They can score 13 here which I think is possible because the Badgers will be resting their key guys later in the game.  

I will take Denver here as we just need them to win the game.  While I know last weeks game was very mis leading with the Titans as they missed 4 FG's and had a Touchdown called back, this offense is just brutal to watch.  I also think Denver is a lot better than their 1 win shows.  They should have beat the Bears straight up, hung with Green Bay, blew another game against the Jags and last week won an impressive game at Chargers last week.  Denver still hasn't quit and I think this is a must win for them 

Another great spot here for the Chiefs as Mahomes and company dropped the game to the Colts on primetime as double digit favorites.  Mahomes was banged up but he is playing this week and won't have any issues against this Texans defense.  Yes, the Chiefs defense isn't great either, but we are now getting a discount on them for the first time with them failing to cover in 3 straight games.  The Texans are coming off a game scoring 50+ and the betting public loves to back those type of teams.  

I'm still high on this Vikings team and I think the betting public will be on the Eagles as most are remembering the road win at Green Bay, but that Eagles team was a desperate team.  I still think the Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFC and can control the Eagles offense.  The media loves to hate on Cousins and people get scared away when that happens.  The thing is though that the Vikings offense still has a ton of weapons.  I like the Vikings here to control the game and get the win and cover the short number.

I really like the Browns here at this price and feel they should be favored.  This is honestly a perfect storm set up here as the Browns are coming off an ugly showing Monday night on primetime and now the betting public will want nothing to do with them.  I think the Seahawks are extremely overrated here as they were lucky to beat the Rams and in fact they have survived 3 very close games.  The Seahawks have simply done nothing to be favored here in this game.  I love the Browns in this spot

I love the Jaguars also here in this game.  The Saints are simply getting way too much love here now going 3-0 with Teddy under the helm and the betting public will be on them no doubt this week.  I actually think this line will really move closer to game time so grab this line now for the Jags.  The Jags absolutely dominated the Panthers last week but it didn't show on the scoreboard.  This is now the perfect spot to buy the Jags with Minshew who clearly can flat out play. 

Let's grab Wyoming here.  Oddsmakers are saying that SDSU is little better than Wyoming on a neutral field and I simply don't buy that.  This SDSU team really struggled against a bad Colorado St team last week and really didn't pull away considering they were +4 in turnovers and also a huge turnover on downs right before half that would have tied up the game.  Wyoming's only loss was @ Tulsa and we saw that Tulsa team who should have beat the undefeated SMU Mustangs last week. 

This is a huge bounce back here for Iowa.  I had Michigan last week as a top play and they covered against Iowa.  Iowa played awful in that game and Stanley by far had his worst game of the season. Now, its the classic night time kick off in Iowa City and they are known over the years to pull some major upsets.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this game and will take the FG + here.  Iowa's defense is by far the best D Penn St has seen.  I think there are a lot of question marks surrounding how good this Penn St is.  Iowa bounces back 

I can't believe this line has floated up this much.  I think the average fan will see that Missouri is 4-1 playing at home and have covered 4 straight.  Missouri has played a very easy schedule so far this season with their best win being South Carolina?  I just think Ole Miss has the better talent.  Ignore the fact they are 3-3, 2 of those came down to final minute and ended up losing both.  Missouri lost their best defensive player which is a huge loss and I think Ole Miss can move the ball and wouldn't be surprised if Ole Miss won outright 

I'm going to take the Aggies here tomorrow.  Yes, I know this isn't a night game at the 12th man, but I still think this is way too many points.  This will by far be Bama's biggest test of the season and I think Jimbo will have his guys ready for this one.  Bama is still very good as we all know but they just aren't the same to me my eyes anyways as years past.  This is simply too many points here and will take Texas AM.  Remember the Aggies were only 15 point dogs @ Clemson and covered granted that was a lucky one but that was on the road as well.  They are catching more here at home against a team who I think is worse than Clemson

I will take Texas here in this match up.  We all know how big this match up especially for Texas here.  I just trust Herman here to have his guys ready.  Oklahoma has really boated raced some bad teams and now Hurts is in the Heisman talk.  There is a lot of love for this Sooner team.  The talent gap is not a difference here at all as both teams get big time recruits.  There will be a lot of points scored here and I definitely think the back door will be open if Texas needs that

This is simply too many points here for Georgia to be laying.  They were extremely lucky to cover last week @ Tennessee if you were watching they needed a fumble 6 late to do that and Tennessee still had their chances.  I also like the fact that South Carolina is coming off their bye week and also the week before that he looked very good against Kentucky as they dominated that game.  This is a ton of points here grab the dog

This is really more of a play against Miss St as I don't feel this team should be laying more than a TD to anyone in conference play.  Miss St is really down this season and their best win is at home vs Kentucky in which they caught them in a good spot.  Also I think after last week this is the game where we see if Tennessee has any fight left as they have Bama on deck so they know this is really a must win game.  I will take the points and trust them here with a big effort. 

Clearly we are having one of those weird situations here where we are seeing the road ranked team as a dog and when we see that is screams to take the home team.  Miami last week lost to Va Tech as a double digit favorite but they absolutely dominated that game.  The difference was though that they were 0-5 in the turnover category.  Miami still has a ton of talent and there is no doubt they will be up for this prime time game

This is a great spot here for Dallas now.  The Cowboys lost on prime time @ the Saints and looked ugly in doing so which now I think the public will love Rodgers as a dog.  Well in fact the Packers have been terrible as a dog and on the road over the years.  Green Bay was exposed last Thursday IMO has this so called better defense didn't do much against the Eagles which were the best offense they have played.  Dallas will be able to control the game with Zeke on the ground keep Rodgers off the field.  Also Adams for GB is a game time decision as well which would be a huge loss

This is simply too many points here in this division game.  The Broncos are now a team the betting public wants nothing to do with.  The Broncos were just 7 point dogs two weeks ago at a better Green Bay team.  So the fact they didn't cover the last two but actually should have and they blew the game last week, all that is creating a big over inflated line.  Chargers are banged up pretty bad right now as well which you have to consider.  I don't think the Broncos have totally quit yet and will show up against this division rival

I think the betting public will be on the Bills here, especially given that they took the Patriots down to the wire last week.  I just think that is a tough spot to follow here now.  The Bills also have big time questions with their QB Allen being questionable.  If he is indeed out and Barkely is the starter this line will sky rocket.  I think it's worth the chance here to grab this short number regardless of what happens.  Allen clearly won't be 100% even if he does go.  Titans were impressive last week @ Atlanta in which they controlled that game from start to finish.  Also worth noting that the Bills wins have came against the Jets, Giants and Bengals not exactly world beaters there

I just think there is a ton of value here with the Steelers catching more than a field goal at home in this division rivalry.  I think we are starting to see the true colors of this Ravens team.  Their two wins are against Miami and Arizona.  Pittsburgh played very well Monday night and I think their defense will hold Lamar in check.  It's also important now that Rudolph has a couple games under his belt now.  I'm not a believer in this Ravens team as they need to prove something on defense.  They are giving up 7.3 yards per play which is horrible. 

This is a big time discount here on the Bengals.  So they were 3.5 point dogs last week suggesting that the Bengals would have been -2 vs the Steelers who are way better than the Cardinals.  Now they are only -3 to the Cardinals?  I think the betting public will be off Cincy because of the ugly Monday night performance.  Well the Cardinals have had back to back no shows at home.  Bengals will have some big plays down field as the Cardinals have gave up plenty so far this season.  Kirk the WR for AZ is out which is Murray's big down field threat

This is a good spot here to go against SMU.  SMU is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS and now the love is getting a little out of hand here.  Tulsa is coming off their bye week and we know they have this game circled.  This game has also been very close the last couple seasons.  Tulsa has also played Michigan St and Oklahoma St so they have played teams better than SMU.  The love is simply getting out of control here for SMU take the points with Tulsa

This Auburn team is now the public darling and I think it's time to jump off that ship.  Yes, they have had some good performances and have covered every game so far which of course the public loves. I don't think they should be favored in this game.  The main key here is that Florida now has several key players back from suspension.  I really think their defense will cause some major problems for Nix at QB who has to see the speed that the Florida defense has to offer.  Remember last week Auburn went off favored by -7.5 against Miss St @ home.  Odds makers are saying that Auburn would nearly be favored by 10 over Florida @ Auburn therefore Miss St is better than Florida?  Big time overreaction here take the points

No surprise this line has dropped from the opener as this is sharp money driving it down.  Toledo has had the Broncos number the last couple seasons no doubt about it.  I just believe this year that Western is the better team.  Where they will expose Toledo is on offense.  Toledo has yet to play a powerhouse offense at all and their defensive number are terrible.  Western Mich is averaging nearly 500 yards per game and Toledo is giving up nearly 500 yards per game.  If those both go hand in hand here no doubt WMU will walk away with a victory here

This seems to be a huge overreaction based on last weeks results.  Baylor was a home dog to Iowa St and won outright, but blew a 20-0 lead in that game in the 4th quarter.  They were also +2 in turnovers and couldn't put them away.  Now they are saying if this game was played @ Baylor they would be a full TD dog.  I'm not buying that considering Kansas St was less than that last week at  a better Oklahoma St team.  Kansas St should at least be -3.5 here in this game.  They won't come out slow this week.

I think this is a discount here on Iowa St and maybe I'm on the wrong side here but this team is 3 points away from being 4-0 and if they were we all know this line would be at least a TD.  Iowa St knows now they simply can't afford any slip ups if they want to play for the Big 12 title and especially this game.  Iowa St started off very sluggish last week and I expect Campbell and company to come out hot here.  Iowa St still has the best or if not the 2nd best offense in the conference.  

This number is simply too big for the Badgers to cover.  Yes, we all know how good they are but it all boils down to motivation here.  What exactly is their motivation here in this game to blowout this Kent St team? The Badgers are coming off back to back good home wins over Michigan and Northwestern and have Sparty on deck as well.  Kent St has been tested by by a couple power 5 teams in @ Arizona St in which they covered and @ Auburn which they failed to by just 3 points at this same number.  Kent St will get a couple scores and that will be all they need in order to cover this number

I love Michigan here in this game this weekend.  People are simple overreacting here because they looked awful against Wisconsin.  The game of the year line here was Michigan -14.5 and now after 4 games it has been adjusted this much?  I think this is a rally the troops type of game for Big Blue and they put the hurt down.  I'm also not sold on Iowa, this team was extremely lucky to have won the game @ Iowa St and failed to cover in the process.  Michigan will be ready and I think that defense will rattle Stanley the QB who is vastly overrated IMO.  Michigan covers this short number in a must win game fairly easily

There is no doubt who the betting public will be all over here and that is Central Florida.  They are a very good team, but this Cincy team is nothing to hang your head on.  In UCF only true road test they lost to a bad Pitt team.  I know UCF has had their way with Cincy the last couple years, but this squad is healthy and they most definitely have this game circled.

The Rams to me are one of if not the most overrated teams in the league following last season and their Super Bowl appearance.  They have been very lucky this season IMO.  First week Carolina was the better team and they got lucky there.  Against the Saints they knocked out Brees which was extremely beneficial.  The Sunday night game @ the Browns that was a coin flip late.  Now their luck finally got up with them getting destroyed by Winston and the Bucs.  I also don't trust Goff to be one of the elite QB's and I think Wilson and company handle their own in this prime time spot and Seattle is a tough spot to play at

I'm going to be a square here I admit it, but this Bears team is no good.  I don't think these teams are equal at all and that is what the line is suggesting here.  The Bears rely so much on that defense which was clearly the case again on Monday night.  The fact they weren't able to pull away and the Skins had a chance to cut the game down to under a TD says a lot about how bad that offense is.  I think the Vikings are one of the most complete teams in the league.  I know the big worry is Cousins, but I trust him a lot more thank Trubisky.  I expect this line to drop big time throughout the week

This is a rally the troops here game for the Broncos before they throw in the towel for the year.  They are 0-3 and clearly desperate and will look to back them here with the motivation edge.  They should have beat the Bears who most are high on so I think they have enough film now on Minshew.  While I love Minshew and what I have seen this, I just think this will be a tall task for him and company here.  Denver was only outgained by the Packers by 2 yards last week and despite being -3 in turnovers they still nearly covered that game and actually should have.  

The Bucs should be 2-1 if it weren't for a missed FG at the end of the game last week.  I also think the Rams are highly overrated right now.  They were lucky week 1 @ Carolina, had the luck of Brees being knocked out week 2 and won in the final seconds against the Browns Sunday night.  I also really like the spot here with the Bucs as the Rams have two big division games on deck.  Simply too many points here with a Tampa team that is clearly improved 

I had the Chiefs last week and got the worst of the number as it dropped throughout the week and they ended up covering the final number at 4.5.  I'm not a firm believer right now in the Lions as they were extremely lucky against the Chargers and also against the Eagles.  Remember week 1 this team tied the Cardinals.  Mahomes is just a whole different animal and I don't see how they can stop this offense.  Also the Chiefs last week should have covered that game as they were up double digits for most of it but of course got back doored.  The Lions defense doesn't present any problems to the Chiefs offense.

I think so far in the 3 games we saw the one outlier game with the Titans and that was week 1 @ the Browns.  The next two games have been ugly for them as Marriota simply isn't the answer at QB anymore.  The Falcons did play a good game against the Colts last week racking up just under 400 total yards.  This team feels due for a major breakout game at home.  With a high scoring team like Atlanta and a challenged offense like the Titans it will be hard for them to keep up.

I'm going to take the Raiders here in this game.  They are coming off a blowout loss @ Minnesota and the previous week vs Kansas City.  Well both of those teams are playoff teams and super bowl contenders.  I'm not going to hold that against them.  Here is where I think Oakland can take control and that is on the ground here.  The Colts defense is giving up some chunks of yards on the ground and with the rookie RB in Jacobs they love to run the ball.  Indy also isn't an explosive offensive team here.  If the Raiders take care of the ball  I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright

Coming Later

I think UNLV is worth a look here at this price.  UNLV is coming off a bye here and I think the perception of Wyoming is a little overrated as most remember their win over Missouri in week 1.  Last week they covered vs Tulsa but had no business doing so as they were dominated.  UNLV has the better athletes here along with the speed.  This number is way too big 

This game is to is a crazy over reaction.  Yes, the Buckeyes are steam rolling people right now and you can't take that away from them.  Remind you though while they blew out Cincy they were favored by 17 and sharp money took that game down.  Now they are laying more on the road in a night game against a lot better opponent.  I also think the betting public is off Nebraska as well especially since they laid that egg on the road @ Colorado.  This is a game where obviously the Cornhuskers will be up for.  Also another thing here is that the Game Of The Year line was Ohio St -7.5 and now we are seeing a huge over reaction.  

I think the wrong team is favored here.  Reason is because Marshall barely won last week vs Ohio who was actually in a better spot.  I just think this Marshall offense will be able to put up some points.  I keep going back to that week 1 game against UCLA in which they were lucky to win and clearly this UCLA team is horrible.  Marshall has been tested against a good Boise team on the road which they only lost by 7 and covered the number.  I think both teams here are equal so give me the home dog.  

This might be the public side here for sure but I just think Iowa St is the better team.  They should have beat Iowa and were the better team on the field.  I truly believe with them coming up a point short we are getting a discount.  Baylor so far has played no one and are coming off an ugly game against a very bad Rice team.  I think the Cyclones handle their own here in Waco.

Last Friday we saw another USC QB go down and their 3rd stringer come in and beat a good Utah team.  I will say that game was a very misleading final which is creating value now with Washington.  I think this will be a similar case to when USC went on the road granted a 2nd string at this time @ BYU, but they came up short.  What did Washington do @ BYU last week?  I had them and they blew them out.  This offense is rolling right now and I think the environment will be to much for a 3rd string QB.  

This has all the feeling of a let the frustration out game.  No one wants a part of Vandy right now after an 0-3 start and failing to cover in every game.  Well they have played the toughest schedule in the country which I don't think is being taken into consideration.  While they were blown out last week vs LSU they did still manage to score 38 points.  Northern Illinois is coming off a bye which does help them but they gave up a fortune to Nebraska last time out.  This team is down compared to most seasons and I think Vandy lets it all out here looking for their first win

I was against Arizona St last week and they lost outright vs Colorado.  I definitely see the value on them here against Cal on Friday night.  I actually think both of these teams are very equal, but the fact that Cal is ranked and undefeated that betting public will love them.  I like this spot for a bounce back for the Sun Devils and will take the points.  I could also see Cal over look ASU here with a trip @ Oregon on deck

I think we get the max effort here from the Eagles tonight avoiding to go 1-4.  They have lost back to back coin flip games in the final minutes and easily could be 3-0.  Also they haven't covered the spread yet so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  I think the Packers are overrated here playing two bad teams in Chicago and Denver.  The Denver game last week was a misleading final as well.  Even when they jumped out to a big lead against the Vikings they couldn't put it away and that is a concern.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won outright tonight

I have to take the Redskins here in this game.  The Bears have shown zero signs of an offense so far and were extremely lucky last week @ Denver who is a bad football team.  I simply don't trust Trubisky on the road at all.  The Skins despite not having big time play makers have shown some offense against the Eagles and Cowboys.  Odds makers are saying that the Bears would be favored by double digits on @ Chicago and no way am I buying that 

Coming Later

We are seeing a big time over reaction here on this game.  last week the look ahead line was Pittsburgh -1.5 and now with Big Ben going out, the line has moved 8 points?  He isn't worth 8 points no way.  People are also forgetting that Mason Rudolph played 70% of the game last week and still almost beat Seattle and would have had a great chance but a bad call at the end cost him the chance.  San Fran goes from small dogs in both first two games to now TD favorites?  Huge over reaction and I think Pitt keeps this very close.

So the betting public will most definitely be off the Chargers here.  The Chargers out played the Lions big time last week, but had some brutal mistakes like missing a couple field goals and a fumble at the 1 yard line that Detroit recovered.  Based on the result though I think we get a really focused SD team that the betting public won't want anything to do with.  The Texans are an overrated team and should have lost last week at home vs the Jags.  The Texans still struggle big time on the OL as they gave up 4 sacks last week and I think the Chargers will get after Watson again here.  

I will take the Chiefs here in their home opener for the season.  Mahomes to me is the best QB in the league and just so dangerous with all the weapons around them.  They are able to score points in a hurry and we saw that last week @ Oakland down 10-0 and then rattle off 28 straight.  I'm also not sold on the Ravens at all here as they have played the Dolphins and Cardinals.  They actually looked very sloppy last week and Murray threw for over 300 yards against them.  I think everyone still remember Lamar lighting up the Dolphins in week 1 and see this @ 6.5 and instantly bet it.  I don't think the Ravens are a come from behind team here and I like the Chiefs to really pour it on

I think the Bills are simply getting way too much respect here because they are 2-0 against an 0-2 team.  The Bengals went on the road week 1 and should have Bearns Seattle, I think people are forgetting about that.  Bills beat the Jets and Giants so which is nothing to impressive.  I wouldn’t be surprised here if the Bengals won outright

I think SDSU is being a little over valued here since they beat an awful UCLA team and then followed that up with another road win and cover last week over a bad New Mexico St team.  This Utah St has the best QB in the Mountain West in Love.  Utah St nearly won @ Wake who is clearly a very good team as we saw them beat North Carolina last week.  Utah St will put up points here and I don't think SDSU can keep up.  This is a short number and the Aggies are off a bye as well