I can't believe how much this line has gone up since yesterday.  The Chiefs to me will be a major play against early and often.  Tyreke Hill isn't a guy who walks through the. door everyday.  It will be a major adjustment for Mahomes who is great but still those guys had a special connection that just can't be replaced.  A lot of negative news regarding the Carindals which actually I like in terms of line value.  Cardinals start hot and getting 6.5 is just too many.

I know the betting public will be with me here but I really like this Eagles squad this season.  If Hurts just makes a hair improvement which I fully believe he will then this team has a chance to take a major step forward.  Eagles have weapons across the board here and a huge thing is they have what most consider the best OL in football which is huge for a young QB.  I think there is also a lot of love for the Lions because they covered a ton last season and played tough.  Well, we aren't going against the Lions when they are catching 7 or more but this line is 3.5

I will take the Texans here in this division game to start the season.  I know the Texans roster isn't great by any means but the Colts laying more than a TD here on the road?  Matt Ryan Im not convinced will be the savior here for the Colts.  I think it will be a defensive battle and a low scoring affair here which adds more value to the Texans.  Mills was an underrated rookie QB last season and in fact he threw for the most TD's as a rookie last season.  

The Steelers here are just being disrespected and so is Tomlin.  People forget that this team made the playoffs despite how horrible Big Ben played last season.  Literally anything is an upgrade for them this season and I mean that.  Steelers defense is rock solid and the Bengals hang over Super Bowl loss I think they are a play against most of the season.  Division dog first game I think the. Steelers are live for this potential upset.

I will lay the big number here with Nebraska.  They haven't looked great and are 0-2 ATS. so far but this opponent here in Ga Southern is really bad.  They won 3. games last season and are arguably the wort team in the. Sun Belt.  This is a a perfect get right game for Nebraska and I think they. leave the starters in here. to gain some confidence and rack up easy scores.

I like San Jose here in this matchup.  This is more of a play against Auburn who I am not high on at all this season.  They won 6 games last season in Harsins first year and only have 11 starters back.  Asking them to get a crazy win margin like this is a ton.   I think that is asking them to score 37+ which I dont think they get to.  They also have Penn St on deck which is clearly a big look ahead game for them. 

I like Kentucky here in this game.  I think  both of these teams are much equal across the board but Kentucky has the edge in QB play with Levis who is projected a first round pick.  So much is being made from Florida upsetting Utah last week because of where they were ranked.  Kentucky is 4-0-1 ATS the last 5 meetings here.   

Both teams coming off big efforts.  ODU beat Va Tech last week and generally I look to fade schools like this but I didn't think the line would be double digits here.  ECU almost pulled the upset on top 15 team in NC St last week.  However, there was a big scenario in the game where it flipped.  NC St. had it first. and goal from the 1 and couldn't punch it in to go 14 in the 2nd half.  The whole game turned from there.  ECU is good yes, but winning by double digits here I dont see it.

Central Mich getting a lot of love from oddsmakers here because of putting up 44 points against Oklahoma St last week.  Granted that is good against a Power 5 school but they also gave up 58.    The Sun Belt to me is by far a better league than the MAC these days and these two teams are. both equal.  Jags return 14 from last years team who won 5 games but had 4 losses by 7 points or less.  

Late Add

Utah St is a team that has a legit shot to win the Mountain West Conference.  That being said a team with a much talent as they do shouldn't be 40 point dogs to anyone.  This team also returns a ton of experience in 13 starters from a team who won 11 games.  Bama is really good and there is no hiding it.  First game for them though out of the gates and they have to replace a ton especially on defense.  Are they really gonna go score 50+?  Im betting against it

I could be way off on this game but Kentucky and the hype to me is a sell sell sell.  Levis the QB is turning heads and is a highly touted prospect for the next level and with that comes expectations.  Kentucky had a great season last year give them credit but this many points against a more than capable Miami Oh team?  Miami Oh are picked by many to with the MAC East this season and they return Gabbert at QB.  I know its the first game and everyone is looking forward to the season but Kentucky does have Florida next week which is a massive early conference game for them.  Maybe they just do enough here to sneak by and save it for next week

The only big game I'm touching this week.  I have nothing bad to say about Georgia but out of the gates laying 17.5 technically on a neutral field?  The Bulldogs lost legit pros on both sides of the ball and since Stenson is back at QB I think they are getting respect.  The one main take away for me here is that the Bulldogs D coordinator is now the Head Coach for the Ducks.  No one knows the inside and outs of Georgia more than Lanning who takes over.  Whether or not he will succeed I don't know but first game out of the gate he will have a great game plan for them.  If Bo Nix can just be slightly above average and take care of the ball, the Ducks are a loaded team.  

I know this line is inflated based upon the pathetic performance by Wyoming and yes teams make the biggest leap from first to second game.  I just think this Wyoming team is that bad plain and simple.  Illinois had a pathetic offense last season and in fact a lot worse than Tulsa who ranked 28th in passing.  Tulsa has a fifth year starter at QB who can sling it and he won't have any issues moving it down field.  Wyoming is really bad bottom line

One of the rare times I will lay double digit points with a ranked team on the road but I love this NC St team.  I dont consider them a sleeper this season and most shouldn't be surprised if they win the ACC.  17 total starters back which include 10 on defense.  This defense was nasty last season ranking in the top 25 and they should be a top 10 defense this year.  This is the difference in this game here is that the Wolfpack will get stops.  I see a 34-13 type of victory here.  

I love Illinois here in this spot.  I'm not overreacting to week 0 win over Wyoming but they dominated the game.  QB transfer from Cuse in Devito could be what makes Illinois really completive this year and maybe pull an upset or two.  Illinois did win 5 game last season and are improved on both sides of the ball especially offense as I mentioned with the QB upgrade.  I truly believe Indiana is by far the worst team in the Big 10 and they have hardly any starters back from either side of the ball.  Wrong team is favored I expect this line to change 

I will take the Bengals here this weekend.  I have heard all week that the Rams DL will dominate the Bengals OL.  Yes, it sure looks like that on paper but Cincy will have a game plan on double teams etc to try and contain Donald.  The Bengals are just a tough team.  I mean going on the road through the Titans and Chiefs is no easy task.  That comeback I think do wonders for a teams confidence.  Also, the Rams aren't a team that generally blows people out.  They play a lot of close games in general and them laying more than a FG given the Super Bowl I think the Bengals cover and win it outright 

Love the Rams here.  I think that Stafford finally turned a new leaf and that confidence will carry over into this game.  The Rams lost to the Niners not so long ago either and the Rams were up 17-0 at half in that game.  The narrative will be that Shanahan owns the Rams blah blah.  The Niners won a playoff game without scoring an offensive TD, let that sink in.  Rams route them in a revenge game 

Grab this line now.  I'm not being prisoner of the moment but I really like the Chiefs laying what may seem like a big number.  You better believe that the Chiefs haven't forgot about that horrible ending a few weeks back at Cincy.  KC was well in control of that game and her broke loose late.  I think they put a number on the Bengals.  The Bengals didn't win because of Burrow lets face it, it was the Bengals deflection on D that made it possible.  

We are adding the Chiefs here in this game.  I know there are lines at -1 or -1.5 and I would play those as well.  Let's face it, if you were to tell me prior to the season that the Chiefs would lose at home twice to the same team I would say you're nuts.  I still believe that.  Chiefs have just been rolling and I'm not putting much stock into the Bills blowout win over the Patriots.  I think they rightly overachieved.  I think KC and Mahomes are too much to handle here give me the Chiefs.  

I know the Bucs are missing guys here and some are very key pieces.  I am simply putting my trust in Brady here to get to the NFC Championship game here.  The Bucs do want revenge here from an earlier season loss to the Bucs.  The Rams did have Woods at WR in that game and that was Stafford best game of the season.  He hasn't played that great and them beating a banged up Cards team isn't doing it for me. In Tom I trust here. 

I had the Bengals last week over the Raiders and that was a winner as the Bengals really controlled the game from start to finish.  I think 3.5 is to much here and I get it that the titans had a bye week but this is the worst number 1 seed in quite some time.  I'm not worried about Henry possibly returning here.  The Titans here down the stretch lost to the Texans and almost lost twice to them.  We destroyed by the Patriots, lost to Steelers, beat the Niners but in a very fluky outcome.  I think the Bengals win this game outright.

I will take the Bengals here in this game.  This is just a situation here where I think the Raiders dont have much left in the tank. Yes, I know most will say well it's the playoffs well Sunday night against the Chargers was a playoff game and it was a taxing one to say the least.  Meanwhile, the Bengals got to rest players and importantly Burrow.  I think that is a huge advantage.  Also remember just two weeks ago the Raiders were getting 8.5 vs the Colts and now just 5 vs Cincy who is better than the Colts.  Take the Bengals. 

I have no idea how the Raiders have done it their last 3 games but what a remarkable turn around.  They have had 7 turnovers and forced 0 their last 3 games and won them all which is just wild.  They get Waller back which is huge this week.  The thing is that Herbert and company even though they have guys back their defense is simply just horrible.  I like the Raiders mojo here in making the playoffs and I will take the 3 in which I believe they will have a massive home field advantage come Sunday night 

I think the betting public will love them some Patriots here because they blew out the Jags.  The thing is here though I just see them eventually resting players.  If the Bills beat the Jets which we know they will then they win the division.  That being said the Patriots coaches will be letting the players know and I think they will sit them.  Dolphins play hard just because they lost last week doesn't mean they have quit.  

I love the Rams here at this price and would take them at 4 or 4.5 and 5.  It sounds like Lance will be the guy and if that is officially the case then this line jumps as Lance I am not a fan of by any means.  I think the notion that the Niners own the Rams is playing into this line and also the fact that Stafford has had back to back weeks of 3 turnovers.  I look for a monster effort here and they cover this short number.

Lets grab the Football team here.  This is honestly just a play on them and Coach Riveria who I believe won't let them quit and quite frankly it seems clear that the Giants have quit outright.  Last week was about as bad of performance as you could ask for.  Lay it with Washington

I just love this spot here for the Ravens.  I had the Steelers in Monday game vs the Browns and it was a homerun spot for them.  I believe this is the ultimate fade here now.  The offense is still horrible and Big Ben struggled big time.  It was just the fact that Baker injuries has been horrible himself.  Ravens want revenge from a 1 point loss earlier this season.  Also I believe they will play hard to go over .500 on the season.  

I like the Steelers here in what will be Big Ben's last home game on prime time in Monday night football.  I think it's fair to say that both of these teams are equal right now.  I mean the Steelers just beat the Titans two weeks ago.  Baker is just struggling big time and their fall here is worth noting.  I think Big Ben rises here.

Give me the 2 win team in the Lions who just play hard.  I think it's clear now that the Seahawks have gave up on the year and that was clear last week as the Bears beat them.  What does Seattle exactly want to do here?  I dont see it at all.  Their offense has been bad and them laying 7 with literally nothing to play for give me the Lions who play hard.

I will lay this number with the Saints.  I think they are very undervalued here simply because of Monday Night with a 3rd or 4th stringer in Ian Book.  Let's not forget that these Saints won 9-0 @ Tampa, yes held the Bucs to 0!  They won't have trouble here against Carolina who I believe has quit now on the season.  They will be missing several key pieces on defense.  Saints are still in the playoff hunt and hungry.

I like the 3.5 here with Washington.  These teams just met two weeks ago and the line opened Philly -4.5 at Phily well the Covid went rapid for Washington and they had to sign a 3rd string QB to start.  It was a 10-10 game at half.  I think there is extreme value here especially since Washington was embarrassed on Sunday Night Football.  

I will lay it here with the Titans for two reasons.  First, is I love the spot for the Titans here going off a Thursday night win over the Niners and having the extra time while the Dolphins are off the Monday night game vs the Saints.  Second,  The Dolphins during this streak have benefitted from playing some of the worst QB's in the league.  Book, Wilson x2,Taylor, Glennon,.  These are their most recent 5 games.  I mean come on here.  I think a big step up here and the Titans do have a healthy Brown as we saw what he means to this offense.

I know this is very square pick here in taking the Rams.  Stafford wasn't impressive at all last week but this is more of a play against the Ravens here.  This team is just so banged up especially on defense and I'm not scared if Lamar goes all signs point to he is no where near 100% anyways.  Rams OL and DL will dominate both sides here.  I will lay the short price with the Rams 

I know the sharp money will be on the Bengals but I dont think this is the spot to fade the Chiefs.  The Bengals are over valued here because of what took place last week but mind that was vs 3rd string QB.  Bengals 2 weeks ago ended beating Drew Lock who is horrible also.  Go back another 2 weeks and they lose to Chargers and Niners at home both in good spots.  Chiefs are on fire playing for the 1 seed.  

I know I grabbed a good number here with Dolphins but I would still lay it.  Sure, the Saints beat the Bucs last week but it was 9-0 with Hill at QB.  This offense still has a lot of work to do and now given their QB situation for this game facing a very underrated Miami defense I think it's an uphill battle.  I would still lay the -3

I grabbed this one early before the Covid news hit the Chiefs.  I still like the current number even though I got the worst of the number.  I simply think Big Ben and the Steelers here cooked and quite frankly they have guys out as well.  The Chiefs defense is dying around right now and Big Ben IMO will give them 2 turnovers.  I think Pringle and Hardman are good enough for Mahomes to rely on.  

This line quite frankly makes no sense.  So the Raiders go off as the favorite on Monday night vs a Browns team with a depleted roster and 3rd string QB.  They needed a late second FG to win outright which isn't an impressive win at all.  Denver was favored over the Bengals by 3 who are way better than the Raiders.  If Cincy were at Las Vegas the Bengals would be favored big time.  Value here with the Broncos.  I know Lock is playing QB but they win outright.  Also the Broncos will want revenge here from a loss earlier and that was because of the Gruden letting go situation.  

I will take the Bears here in this game.  The Bears offense really struggled in the reds zone on Monday night but man did Fields make some plays. I believe this is the dream crusher spot here for the Seahawks.  First, they played on Tuesday in a division game and now are eliminated from the playoffs which I believe is very difficult for them to rise up here.  We have a struggling offense in Seattle laying nearly a full TD?  Give me the Bears 

Give me the full 3 here with the Ravens.  The Ravens have lost 3 straight games but a combined 5 points.  Two of those losses came down to 2 pt conversions at the end of the game and they failed in both.  I think Baltimore is very underrated given those losses.  Ravens have a sour taste in their mouth after the first meeting in which Cincy destroyed them.  I loved what I have seen from Huntley the backup if he goes.  Ravens win outright 

Odds makers are tilting their hand here with who they believe IMO.  The whole world saw a couple weeks ago that the Patriots beat the Bills @ Buffalo on Monday Night.  Why wouldn't they make this 3 knowing they would get Patriots money.  Bills in a lot better weather conditions here which I think means something a lot.  Give me Buffalo for another division revenge

I know it's a weird spot for the Eagles here after playing on Tuesday against another division rival.  I believe that game was misleading as the Eagles doubled up on Washington in that game.  The Giants are probably starting 3rd stringer in Fromm and I just believe they are throwing in the towel for the season now.  Philly has the best rushing offense and the #11 overall defense.  Giants are just a mess and I have no problem laying it here with Philly. 

This is the ultimate buy low sell high spot as you are going to see.  The Colts beat the Patriots last Saturday to really make a late push here for the playoffs.  The Cardinals had a horrible game losing to the Lions outright.  Cardinals couldn't have looked any worse.  Great bounce back spot for AZ who now really needs this game.  

Give me the Browns here in this game in a do or die situation for them as far as making the playoffs.  They had a hard fought effort with a 3rd stringer Monday night and came up short late.  Baker and Landry are back which is a big boost.  I actually think they can really run the ball on the Packers.  7.5 is a lot here take the Browns 

I like the spot here for Washington tonight.  They get several guys back on defense here which I believe is key.  I think most are going to look at the QB position but lets face it did Washington have a top 15 QB to begin with? Nope.  We have a division game here and both teams need it like crazy.  I dont want any part of Philly laying this many against a decent team.  

I know I'm getting the worst of the number here but quite frankly I dont care.  I think people will look at the Bears effort last week vs Green Bay as a nice one.  While it was, the Bears did have several home run plays which just dont happen during the game.  The Vikings played on Thursday and having that extra time I love here.  The Vikings I believe just will control the game and I think that was a nice momentum win for Minnesota as they are very much alive.

Give me the Steelers here and Tomlin with their backs against the wall.  Pitt is still playing hard and evidence was last Thursday when getting destroyed at the Vikings they climbed back into that game and gave themselves a shot.  Pitt just beat the Ravens 2 weeks ago.  Titans I want nothing to do with as they are still missing players across the board.  The Titans didn't look good last week even though they won 20-0.  The Titans can afford a loss here as they return their key players next week.  I think an all out effort here from Pitt gets it done.

I will take the Lions here in this spot.  So the Lions got blown out at Denver last week and I had the Broncos.  Well, the Lions were off their first win and then cover issues took over that game.  I think now is the great spot to back them though.  We are getting 13.5 with the Cardinals on a short week. Also Hopkins has been shut down for the season and Conner is highly questionable.  I dont see the effort level being there with the Cardinals.  I love Detroit here.

I think the Jets are in a sneaky good spot here.  The Jets may have lost 30-9 last week but that was a 13-6 game going into the 4th quarter.  The Jets ended up getting exposed on the ground well Miami might be without their top 3 RB's because of Coivd and are. by far without their best player in Waddle.  The Jets played Miami tough in the first meeting as it was tied going into the 4th.  Give me all the points here

I'm going to lay it here with the Jags. This whole Urban Meyer story I believe will actually make the Jags wake up and perform their best.  They clearly hated this guy as their coach.  This is nothing but a positive here for the rest of the Jags team.  Their numbers are better than the Texans across the board anyways,  The Texans are starting Davis Mills who is the worst starting QB in the league.  Lay it with the Jags 

I really like the Colts here in this game.  The Patriots no doubt will be the most bet public dog this week and those always are a cause for concern and when I look to play against them.  I know the Patriots are vastly improved but man their schedule has been so easy you can't ignore it.  I also think the Patriots on the turf will struggle here.  The Colts are 6-2 SU their last 8 games playing as good as anyone.  I think the Colts run offense will be the difference here.  

I'm going to lay it here with the Chiefs.  I know this is a public play because of how hot the Chiefs have been playing.  Their defense has been so good quite frankly not talked about enough here.  They have held their opponents to under 20 points for 6 straight games.  They also want revenge here after losing to the Chargers earlier this season.  Chargers defense here is no good as they give up a ton a big plays. I think with the Chargers winning and covering their last 2 games is keeping this line low.  Lay it with the Chiefs. 

I like the Broncos here.  We are getting the Lions off an all out effort and their first win of the season.  The Broncos are off one of the most misleading games of the week.  they outplayed the Chiefs and held that offense to just 15 points.  Broncos should have covered that game easily but since they didn't its a discount here.  Denvers defense is playing well and I think given the spot can really shut down their opponent here.

I really like the Raiders here this week and this is a role they are so good in.  They are 5-1 ATS their L6 games as a road underdog.  The Raiders have lost 4 of their last 5 but their one win was as a 7.5 point dog t the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.  They are just a different team when catching a lot of points.  They have lost several coin flips like last week also.  Raiders are still better than Denver and these lines are the same as last week.  Chiefs offense wasn't that impressive as they needed a late pick 6 to get into the 20's.  

I must be missing something here with this game.  I think this game should be a PK.  I mean the Falcons didn't cover last week by they were only down 17-20 vs Bucs at half and didn't score at all the 2nd half.  They were only outgunned by 47 yards.  Too much respect for Carolina off the bye.  McCaffrey is done for the year once again and what is there to exactly like?  Darnold has been horrible.  Panthers have lost 4 straight home games.  Give me the Falcons here

Cowboys are off extra time winning and covering Thursday night vs the Saints.  They weren't impressive at all and need a couple late game turnovers that helped put it away.  Dak to me doesn't look right at all.  The Cowboys are just 2-3 SU their last 5 games with the two wins being the Saints and Falcons.  Washington I had in a winning effort last week.  Their defense is really playing very good right now holding 4 of their last 5 games to under 20 points.  In this league that is very impressive.  

The look ahead here was 6.5 and sure it has crossed 7 but I love Seattle here.  The Seahawks showed me a lot of fight last week in that win over the Niners and the Texans well they showed me a lot of quit.  I think that was the throwing in the towel moment last week as they scored zero.  Seattle still under valued because of their record and we all know in large part because of Russ injuries.  He finally looked healthier last week.

Plug your nose here with this game. The Saints here are bingo priced as if they are a top. half team in the league and there is no way they are.  The Eagles last week were -6.5 so odds makers are saying that the Saints and Eagles are almost equal?  Not buying it.  Saints have bad injuries across the board on defense.  Saints have lost 5 straight so you have to winder where their heads are.

I'm going to grab this one before it hits 3.  This is the homer spots of homer spots here for the Browns.  They are off their bye week and prior to that was their game Sunday night @ Baltimore.  It was a very close game they could have won despite getting no help from Baker.  The bye week came at a perfect time.  I also believe that the Browns know this is a must win here.  You can't drop below .500 right now or the season is over.  The Ravens haven't looked right in a while not scoring over 20 points for a month plus.  

I think the world and the betting public are all over the the Patriots.  I give them credit yes and everyone says well the they keep improving.  Everyone is putting Mac Jones on this pedestal and quite frankly he doesn't deserve that all.  I just think Buffalo is undervalue now and going into the season we all knew the Bills were the team to beat in this division and they still are.  Now Im getting them at home under FG?  Lay the 2.5 or the 3.

Alright we are seeing a huge overreaction here in this line.  The Ravens were laying less at home on a primetime game vs the Browns than they are that should be your first pause.  This is big time rivalry game in which the underdog has dominated.  Pitt looked horrible last week and were destroyed by division rival Bengals.  I think a great buy low spot here on the Steelers.  The Ravens were very lucky to not only win but cover Sunday night.   Lamar has looked horrible.  The offense is hasn't scored over 20 for 3 straight weeks.  Give me the live home dog here.

I will take the Seahawks in which this is a game most will be staying away or takin the Niners.  I know Russ has looked pretty poor to say the least but remember this team @ Green Bay still was in the game and that was a 3 point spread.  Now they are catching 3.6 at home vs a division rival?  Niners are without their do everything guy in Deebo Samuel which I believe will be a huge loss.

With this number staying right here all week tells you a lot.  The Raiders are coming off a big time Thanksgiving win @ Dallas.  The betting public will love them here laying less than a FG.  Well Cowboys were without their 2 best WR's for the game which played a huge factor.  Waller is hurt and highly questionable for this week which he is their best offensive threat.  I really like the momentumn that Washington is playing with right now winning 3 straight and getting themselves into the Playoff picture again.  The defense is actually playing better without Young.  

Too much love being given to the Bengals right now.  Cincy is coming off a blowout win over division rival in the Steelers.  Oddsmakers know that there won't be a shortage of money coming in on the Bengals given that they are playing well.  So two weeks ago the Chargers were -6 vs the Steelers and last week the Bengals were -3.5.  This is suggesting that the Chargers just two weeks ago on a neutral so really saying that this game should be a PK.  This is the Chargers all out game here trying to avoid going back to .500

I really like the Falcons here at this price.  The Bucs if you have watched them since their bye week a lot of things dont look too well.  The Bucs have covered their last two games but both were ugly.  The Bucs only road cover was last week and they needed a ton of help as the Colts had 5 turnovers and the game still came down to the end. In the first meeting the Falcons were only down 3 late in the third until Matt Ryan through a pick 6 and the wheels came off.  Brown is still out for Tampa and that is a huge loss.  Bucs still have injuries in the secondary and I think the Falcons keep this division game close.

I'm going to lay it here with the Eagles.  There sure aren't many times in the season where you can fade the Jets in a good spot, but here is one of them.  They are coming off a road win @ Texans with Zach Wilson returning.  He didn't look great despite winning.  Eagles have the bet rushing attack and I firmly believe that they will control the ball as the Jets are one of the worst teams against the run.  Eagles had a misleading final last week @ Giants.  They lost 13-7 and still had a chance at the end despite being -4 in turnovers.  

I will take the Texans here in a home game vs the division rival in the Colts.  I think this is a big time let down game here with the Colts off huge efforts the previous two weeks @ Bills and home to the Bucs.  Yes, last week was misleading for the Colts but the Texans lost to the Jets so clearly the line will be inflated.  In the first meeting they Texans had more first downs and the thing I like the most is that Taylor will be at QB not Mills, major upgrade. 

I like Michigan here to really blowout Iowa.  Iowa has been one of the luckiest teams all season long having crazy turnovers go their way in order to win games.  Last week they were a 1 point dog to a 3 win team in Nebraska.  I was extremely impressed with that Michigan win over Ohio St.   The thing is the Michigan defense will have a feast here over the lack thereof QB play for Iowa.  Michigan will shut down the run game and Iowa will be playing from behind which isn't great for them

I dont see a let down happening here for Oklahoma St.  They are coming off a win over their rival in Oklahoma.  I think they still have a ton of motivation here as they believe they can make the College Football Playoff as they are sitting in 5th. If they do get up in this game which I believe they will no problem but they won't be taking their foot off the pedal here.  Oklahoma St has a great defense here and I think will shut Baylor down.  

I love the Cowboys here tonight.  The Cowboys are off back to back losses and 3 of their last 4.  I believe this is a great spot to back them tonight at a shorter price.  They really need this game as their lead in the division has shrunk with their recent struggles.  I think to much is being made with McCarthy being out.  Also last week on Thanksgiving vs the Raiders the Cowboys were without Lamb and Cooper and still nearly won the game.  The Saints have lost 4 straight and I dont see getting better from here on out.

I will happily lay the price here with the Ravens.  Neither team right now has been covering at all as the Ravens have only covered 2 of their last 6 and the Browns just 2 of their last 7. I think the Browns are in a world of trouble.  If you take out the one outlier game which was the Bengals in which they score 41.  The other previous 5 they have failed to score above 17.  Baker is clearly banged and that is a huge concern.  Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, I will gladly take here laying just over a FG

The Rams I had circled entering this week.  They are off their bye week and I actually love that they entered it with a sour taste in their mouths losing their 2 previous games.  A lot of bad things have been said about Stafford but I fully expect a bounce back.  The Packers are really banged up on the OL right now which isn't good facing this Rams pressure and throw in the Rodgers foot trouble I think big concern here.  Love the revenge angle from playoffs and also you know Stafford is motivated going back to Lambeau to get a win

I believe these two teams are equal plain and simple.  The Chargers are laying a FG in a divines game on the road?  The Chargers defense is really really bad and do you not understand how good Teddy is as a dog?  This Broncos team is getting no respect.  Remember they went on road just two weeks ago and destroyed Dallas

This is just too many points here for the Bengals to be laying.  The Bengals are a team I want nothing to do with laying more than a FG and the Steelers are a team I would love to back in a division game getting more than a FG.  I know Pitt isn't great but they for sure have revenge on their mind and quite frankly I trust Tomlin more here.  Cincy destroyed them in the first meeting, they need to prove it to me again here.

I really believe that the wrong team is favored here in this game.  I'm not sure why all the Panthers love here.  I mean this team lost to Washington last week and are now laying points on the road to a team has has won 3 straight in the Dolphins?  I must be missing something but I think the wrong team is favored.  Cam isn't a starter anymore folks

Kentucky is 8-3 and Louisville is 6-5.  I just think that Lousiville is the better team here.  I love how the Louisville offense has looked here the last two weeks scoring over 100 combined points.  I think for that fact that Kentucky has the better record is why the line is saying lower than it should.  

I like Tulsa here in this spot.  SMU was on their all out effort last week vs Cincy and got embarrassed I just dont see the motivation here for SMU has they have already clinched a bowl game.  Tula on the other hand needs to win this game in order to make a bowl game.  They have won their last 2 and I think the motaviton edge definitely sides with them

Oregon is off their dream crusher loss by losing at Utah last weekend.  Its so hard for a team to bounce back knowing that they have zero chance now of playing for the college football playoff.  Oregon St I just think will be up for this one with all the motivation.  The Beavers are playing well and I believe they hang in there tough 

I know Bo Nix is out and that is a big loss here for Auburn.  Auburn hasn't played well losing 3 straight.  I just think that this is too many for Bama to cover in a rivalry game like this.  Auburn would love nothing more than to spoil the party here.  Bama just wants to win and move on.  Auburn has enough on defense to not let it get completely away from them.

I love the Buckeyes here.  I mean this team is just on a mission right now blowing people out left and right.  Michigan I'm sorry they just don't have the offense here to hang tight.  The Buckeyes are a big play machine right now and Michigan doesn't have that style to try and keep up here.  I believe Ohio St hangs a big number here.

I know Washington has been one of the most disappoint teams in the country this season but I trust them here to show up in the rivalry game.  Washington St has really struggled @ Washington over the years and that can't be ignored.  Washington is also a lot better than their record indicates.  in their last 5 losses just one by double digits and that was exactly by 10 points.

I think East Carolina is live here in this game.  There is no doubt they will be pulling out all the trick to try and spoil the undefeated season of the Bearcats.  ECU is more than a capable team winning 4 straight games and covering 6 of their last 7.  Cincy is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season. 

Martinez the starting QB is out for the Huskers here, well no problem.  Iowa has also been without their starting QB the last couple games and he is no good.  Iowa is probably the most overrated teams out there.  Oddsmakers telling you exactly what they think of the Hawkeyes for the fact they are dogs to a Nebraska team that only has 3 wins.

I will lay here with Boise St on the road.  I think books are clearly titling their hand here for the fact that SDSU is ranked and are home underdogs.  Boise needs this game to make the Mountain West Conference Title game.  SDSU has been skating by with one score wins, I think Boise wins easily. 

I know I'm late to the party with the line move here but I really like the Bills.  The thing is here most people won't want anything to do with them given how bad they have looked the last month.  A big part is because of the turnovers.  Also though the Saints have major injuries everywhere now and Karmara is out again which is why I was holding out.  Saints have lost 3 straight games and I dont see how they slow the Bills offense down. 

I will lay it here with the Bears.  The fact that Dalton is playing actually makes me like this quite a bit because I know he won't be throwing in the towel.  The Lions aren't healthy here at all and yes I know they are playing hard and covering back to back weeks but I also think that is playing into the line.  Bears are much better than their record indicates.

The Chargers here I also grabbed a great early number.  Big Ben by all means is out here and Im not sure how much of a downgrade it is to Rudolph.  The main reason though is the Steelers defense suffered injuries.   Watt arguably the best defensive player in the league might no play and is no where near 100%.  Haden and Fitzpaptrick are highly questionable as well.  The Chargers just a couple weeks ago were favored by more over the Patriots.  Granted they lost the game outright but we can all agree that the Patriots are way better than the Steelers.  Lay it here

I love the Chiefs here and grabbed a great early number.  Cowboys will be the public dog of the week there is no doubt about it.  When Mahomes takes care of the ball this team is simply hard to beat.  The main reason honestly for the Chiefs is because they rank near last in turnovers in the league.  The Cowboys defense still isn't anything special and they have proven to keep given up chunk plays.  Last night Sunday night vs the Raiders was the turning point for me in the Chiefs season and I think they beat Dallas easily.  Also the Chiefs D has big time improved the last month.

I know this will be a public play here with the Bengals but I simply believe in them more currently than the Raiders.  I had the Chiefs last week over the Raiders in a easy winner simply because I feel like the Raiders and all the distractions will be catching up to them.  The Raiders have overachieved to start the season and now is the time to fade them.  Burrow off the bye week and the Bengals have a sour taste in their mouths losing to the Jets and getting destroyed by their rival in the Browns.  I love the spot.

I grabbed an early number on the Niners here in this game.  I think this team has underachieved and we finally saw what can happen when healthy especially on offense.  They destroyed the Rams and yes they will be on a short week I get it.  I also believe that too much love is being given to the Jags because they have been covering and they still have that win over the Bills from a few weeks back.  I think the Niners absolutely own them this week on both sides of the ball

The Bills somehow have managed to have one of the easiest schedules you could have asked for.  They shouldn't be laying more than a TD to anyone with a pulse.  This team struggled with Miami a few weeks back and lost outright to the Jags.  Now, they blew out the Jets and I am supposed to be impressed?  Bills numbers are also inflated because of how weak their schedule has been.  Weather is also an issue this week and the Colts D I do trust.  If Went keeps things in control I see this game coming down to the wire.

I really like the Texans here.  They are coming in off their bye week and and have Tyrod back in the lineup with plenty of extra prep time.  No one should like the Titans here as favorites.  This team was succeeding in the underdog role for over a month and now laying double digits.  Last week they were extremely lucky to beat the Saints as they were outgained in that game.  Give the spot and situation I really like the Texans here in this game

This will be the public vs sharp game of the week.  The betting public simply can't get enough of the Packers as they continue to cover week in and week out.  The fact that they keep covering and Vegas doesn't inflate their lines tells you what you need to know about this team.  I think we will see a true regression and it starts this week.  Last week Wilson couldn't do anything and Rodgers still struggled vs the Seahawks.  The loss of Jones at RB hurts big time.  Vikings are the desperate team here and I think they win outright

I will take laying the 3 here with Miami.  The Dolphins showed me a lot in that win over Baltimore on  Thursday night.  This team you could make the case for has been the most disappointing when it comes to win season totals for the year.  The Jets I believe have thrown in the towel now after last weeks terrible effort.  The Jets are starting Flacco and I dont need to elaborate much on this besides he will be a statue and expect several turnovers. 

South Alabama here is getting no respect for a team that is 5-5.  I know there starting QB in Jake Bentley is out here but this is a pure motivation game for me.  Tennessee is off an all out effort here vs Georgia. They know they can go through the motions here to get bowl eligible especially knowing they have Vandy on deck.  I don't see how Tennessee rise sup for this game. 

I wil take Kansas St here.  This team has really been impressive down the stretch here and catch Baylor in a great spot where we know the betting public will be all over Baylor as they are fresh off that big win over Oklahoma.  The Wildcats have won 4 straight here and I believe Baylor is fat and happy and in a role or position that they are familiar with.  Baylor's last two road games well you guessed it they lost outright. 

This is a good price here to back USC.  They are off their bye week and while the season has been anything but special I think they rise here in this rivalry game.  Also mind you that USC was -25 vs Utah just a month ago, so clearly a big adjustment has been made.  USC has the big edge here in the air with the ball as the Bruins secondary ranks 113th in the country.

I really like Nebraska here in this game.  This team has actually played a pretty tough schedule in Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St and Oklahoma.  They haven't been great as far as wins go but they havent lost a game by double digits al season long.  Wisky is hot right now which is why this line is above a TD.  I think Nebraska will show up here off the bye week with a great effort. 

I like Iowa St here this weekend in Norman.  This would have been a huge game if Iowa St didn't lay another game on the road.  This team under Campbell is just better in the underdog role and I think we get a major effort still.  OU finally suffered their first loss which was a long time coming.  They have had a lot of luck in one possession game which the Cyclones have not.  Iowa St wins this outright

I really like Rutgers here in this game.  I think this is a great sandwich spot to fade Penn St here.  They are off a big game last week an all out effort vs Michigan and just came up short.  There is no way the motivation is here now for Rutgers coming to town especially at an early kick.  Penn St has Michigan St on deck here also.  Rutgers is hungry looking for their 6th win.  Rutgers is 9-1 ATS L10 road games.