NFL Super Bowl Sunday San Francisco 49ers Money Line -120 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - The dominant number on the Super Bowl, as of 13 hours before kickoff, is the 49ers at a -2. Right now there is also some -1.5 out there at higher juice and even some -1 at even higher juice. That said, the best value the way I see it is grabbing the money line available at as low of a price as -120 at the time of this write-up. When it comes to the Super Bowl, so much information is already out there. The key reasons for my pick are truly all tied into my contrarian aspect when it comes to sports and, in particular the NFL! No sport is more publicly bet than the NFL and especially when it comes to the Super Bowl. Now ask yourself...who is going to be picking Purdy over Mahomes at QB here? Who is going to pick Shanahan over Reid at head coach here? Why on earth is San Francisco favored when you consider the recent playoff dominance of the Chiefs as this is their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years? Exactly! This line to me is telling everyone to go ahead and back the Chiefs and Mahomes and Reid in their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years. It is basically inviting Kansas City money! My money here, in typical contrarian fashion, is on the Niners in this one! For one thing, the Chiefs did beat the Eagles in the SB last season. It is hard to repeat as champions in this league. The last time it happened was nearly 20 years ago with the Patriots in 2004 and 2005. It is not like teams have not had chances either! In the last 10 years this will be the FOURTH time a team has had a chance to repeat and NONE of the past 3 accomplished this tough task! So many things have to break right for a team to win it all. The Chiefs are a great team but so too are the 49ers and only one team's luck can run out here. Both teams are solid defensively and in the trenches but SF does have the better ground game on offense and that will help limit Mahomes and Company as the Niners can chew up clock on offense and keep the KC offense off the field for longer stretches! Also, Purdy is up to the task here as Mr Irrelevant (last pick in the draft) and is a much better player than many realize! He and McCaffrey will be the stars of this game as well as a 49ers defense that comes in a bit under-valued due to recent performance. This SF D will surprise here after KC embarrassed them in the most recent match-up last season in a 44-23 Chiefs win. This Kansas City offense this season is simply not at the same level as last season. This 49ers team had an 800+ yardage edge on offense this season compared to the Chiefs. That included a 600 yard edge on the ground. Also, if you eliminate QB rushing yards from that the edge is about 900 yards on the ground in looking at the regular season stats of these teams. That is an average of over 50 yards per game on the ground! Teams that can run well and chew up clock can win the big games like this. Finally it is the Niners as Champs for the first time in nearly 30 years as once again a team fails for the 4th time in last 10 years in terms of a chance to repeat! SAN FRANCISCO -120

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers -7 vs Detroit Lions @ 6:30 ET - I know that the Niners barely got by the Packers last week and we had Green Bay right here and were not surprised by the tight outcome. At the same time, the Lions beat Tampa Bay and covered last week as they won by 8 points. However, the Packers were very hot at the end of the season and the Buccaneers were not. The point is that SF was tested more last week than the Lions have been in this post-season. Keep in mind, the Lions game the week before was a 1 point Wild Card round win over the Rams but LA outgained Detroit by nearly 100 yards in that one. Now the Lions will be playing on the road for the first time in 4 weeks! I respect Detroit and I respect Goff at QB but he has a history of struggling badly against the Niners. Also, San Francisco has a big edge here as they have been at home all month long and remain home for this game. The Niners got destroyed by the Eagles in last year's NFC Championship Game. They make up for that ugly result here! They will not let a chance like this get away again. Also, the Lions pass defense has been struggling for quite some time and we know what Purdy is capable of under center. Other than one horrible game against the Ravens in December, he has been consistent and strong for much of this season. Yes, we must lay a TD here but all of the Niners regular season wins were by at least 7 points and 11 of the 12 victories were by a double digit margin! Last week's tight win over Green Bay merely serving to give us line value. We have the better defense and the situational advantage and line value here. 3 of the 4 Lions road losses this season were by at least 7 points and this one will be too! I respect Detroit and they are getting close but they are not quite there yet. This is the 49ers year to get to the Super Bowl after last year's debacle in Philadelphia. Now they are home and are the more balanced team in this match-up. 10* SAN FRANCISCO -7

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44 or 44.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 3 ET - The Ravens, not including their regular season finale when they rested guys, have won 11 of 12 games! In those dozen games they have averaged scoring 33.4 ppg! As for the Chiefs, in their last 4 road games (not including regular season finale as they rested guys), they have scored an average of 26 ppg. We have solid line value with this total in the mid-40s when you consider the recent trending of these two teams. I definitely respect both defenses but Lamar Jackson is such a weapon for the Ravens and Baltimore is going to move the ball well (again!) here at home in this one! However, how can you not respect a Chiefs offense that continues to do enough to once again find themselves in the AFC Championship Game for the 6th straight season! Keep in mind, if each team just gets into the low 20s here we have ourselves a winner and both teams have been doing this all season long. Look for both teams to be aggressive here on offense as Ravens will take advantage of having dual threat Jackson and a solid ground game while the Chiefs aerial attack did produce over 200 yards passing in frigid conditions at Buffalo last week. Also, over 250 yards passing for KC the prior week in even colder conditions in Kansas City. The weather in Baltimore will be cool but not cold and winds should not top 10 mph and rain would be light. Speaking of light, both offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard here and that is what I expect to see in this one! 10* OVER 44 or 44.5 in Baltimore

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - Amazingly Mahomes has 15 career NFL playoff games and 12 were at home and 3 were neutral site (because they were Super Bowl games). That said, this is his first road start in the playoffs which is quite amazing. Now certainly I don't expect this to be a huge impact for a guy with the experience he has but it still not ideal as this is his first ever playoff game - including Super Bowls of course - where almost no one will be cheering for him in the entire stadium! The Bills are hungry and, for Josh Allen, home field does matter. He had an 11-11 TD-INT ratio on the road this season but an 18-7 TD-INT ratio in home starts. Long-term Allen has fantastic numbers at home and he and the Bills love playing here. The Chiefs have been in the Super Bowl 3 of the last 4 seasons but there is a different feel with this team this season. I am not saying either one of these teams would get by the Ravens next week to reach the Super Bowl (we will cross that bridge when we get there!) but I am saying that Bills are very hungry for their chance finally AND this KC team just has not been as dynamic on offense this season. The Bills are scoring an average of 28 points last 8 games including 6 straight wins and not a single loss in regulation. Both teams are strong defensively but Chiefs averaging only 20.6 points last 10 games NOT even including the season finale in which Gabbert was at QB for them. The last 10 games that INCLUDED Mahomes the Chiefs went just 5-5 SU and all 5 losses by at least 3 points so lay the 2.5 here with the home team! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 3 ET - Detroit is 7-1 SU last 8 games at home and last week's 1 point win was a rare exception of a very tight win as their last 11 victories overall had all been by at least 3 points. Now I know we are laying 6 points in this particular match-up versus the Bucs. However, Tampa Bay has seen 6 of their 8 losses this season come by at least 6 points. Though TB ended up being able take advantage of a dysfunctional Eagles team last week that wrapped the season in ugly fashion, they now face a Lions team that is surging at the right time and I really like their head coach as well. He has the respect of this locker room and that goes a long way in sports. Now, back to the Bucs, note that entering last week's game, though the Bucs started this season 3-1 they then went 6-7 the rest of the way. Not only that, TB went just 1-5 against playoff teams in the regular season! That included a TB loss to the Lions and that game was at Tampa and Detroit won by 14 and won the yardage battle by over 100 yards! The Lions have the better ground game in this match-up and will be able run against the Bucs here and that establishes the passing attack as it makes TB respect the ground game. Keep in mind Tampa Bay just beat the defending NFC Champion Eagles and now they are having to go on the road on short rest and face a team that is worlds better than the Eagles are right now. This sets up well for the Buccaneers to get their doors blown off here. Lay it! 10* DETROIT (-)

NFL Saturday Green Bay Packers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - This line is in the range of -10 on San Francisco as of 11 hours before kickoff. While I certainly have a lot of respect for the 49ers they also finished the season 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS L5 home games. The point is they tend to be a little over-valued here at home and I feel strongly that is the case again here. In this case they are facing a Packers team that finished the season on a 6-2 SU run and now, including playoffs, it is 7-2 SU last 9 games! Including post-season, Green Bay played 18 games this season and only 3 of the 17 games were a GB loss by more than 4 points! Surprisingly all 3 of those ugly defeats came at home! The Packers, including the win at Dallas last week, are only 5-5 SU on the road but all 5 losses were by 4 or less points and those 5 defeats averaged just a 2.6 point margin. In other words, in this game San Francisco is being asked to do something no other team has managed yet this season. The Niners are being asked to beat the traveling Packers by a spread greater than 4 points which makes this a 10-0 YTD factor as no team has done that this season! I also like taking big dogs in ugly weather games and rain and possibly wind as well could factor into this game. The Packers, as well as Jordan Love, are peaking at the right time. Look for this to be a great game decided by a one-score margin. The confidence level of the Pack is sky-high right now and the Niners could be a little rusty as the play their first meaningful game in quite some time. Sometimes teams lose momentum in cases like this and this GB team absolutely believe in itself and their run on that 10-0 YTD factor is all set for 11 in a row. 10* GREEN BAY (+)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans @ 4:30 ET - The Ravens regular season finale was a low-scoring battle with the Steelers two weeks ago but Baltimore rested a lot of regulars in that one. Prior to that game, which certainly deserves an asterisk, the Ravens were on a 10-1 run and had scored an average of 34 points in the 10 games in that stretch that followed their win over in London. The point being that if the Ravens just hit their average here of 34 points and they win by about 10 points (current line on this game is Baltimore by 10) then this game will total in the upper 50s! I am not saying we get there but I am pointing out the line value we have on this total! The Texans have scored an average of 27 points last 5 games. I know they had defensive TDs in their playoff win over Cleveland last week but they did see Stroud throw for nearly 300 yards. This is a solid running team too. I like the Texans to score well here as they are a very confident group right now but they will not be able to stop the dangerous offensive attack of the Ravens. With the running threat of Lamar Jackson a constant worry for defenses, Baltimore is going to give this team nightmares in this one. This should fly over the total as a result and I like the fact the total has ticked down a little from the mid-40s to lower-40s on this one. Take advantage of the added value. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Everyone is talking about the demise of the Eagles and, understandably so, as they as fell apart late in the season. However, with adversity can come opportunity. This is the Eagles opportunity to seize the moment and there is still a ton of talent on this team as well as the heart of a Champion. Yes, they were NFC Champions last season. For starters lets talk about the fact that the Bucs started this season 3-1 but then went 6-7 the rest of the way. Not only that, TB went just 1-5 against playoff teams this season! But wait a second, you are saying Tampa has home field here so that is a key factor? Well, guess what, the Bucs 2 home games versus playoff teams were both losses by 14 points and that included one to these Eagles. Philly ran overall them in that win and I expect them to return to that physical display up front and dominate and open up rushing lanes to again gash TB on the ground. You saw what the Lions ground game did against the Cowboys yesterday. This will be similar. Ground attacks can win playoff games. Now I am well aware that AJ Brown is out for Philly but that is what is keeping this line down and I know Hurts has a finger injury. However, it seems like a key Buccaneers injury is being ignored because of this. Baker Mayfield has a rib issue and ankle injury. He was hobbling around against the Panthers last week and then barely practiced this week. Hurts has the playoff factor edge and better health in comparison with Mayfield. Hurts was huge in last year's postseason while Mayfield only had one post-season and his first start was good but his second start helped eliminate his team from the playoffs. Look for a similar result here. The Bucs went 1-5 against playoff teams and the Eagles went 6-2 against playoff teams this year. For all the doom and gloom about Philly they are still the better team in this match-up and, after an ugly finish to the season - unlike the Cowboys, the Eagles know how to turn things up to a higher notch when the post-season rolls around. This should be a road rout ladies and gentlemen. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:30 ET - I said it all season long that the Steelers are the worst winning team in a long time in this league. They kept getting outgained but yet winning game after game. They finished the season going 4-4 last 8 games after one of the luckiest 6-3 starts in the history of this league. Pittsburgh will be exposed here on Monday by a Bills team that is coming on strong at the end of the season. Buffalo is not an easy place to play and losing Watt also hurts this Steelers team. By the way, in that 4-4 finish to the season, the Steelers only win over a playoff team was when they faced the Ravens in the season finale but Baltimore had nothing to play for and rested guys. So now a Steelers anemic offense led by Mason Rudolph faces a Bills offense led by Josh Allen who had an 18-6 TD-INT ratio in home games this season prior to throwing a pick in Buffalo's final home game. Rudolph has a 5-6 TD-INT ratio dating back to the latter part of the 2019 season when he is on the road. Though this line at -10 might seem high to some the fact is that the Bills home field edge might be closer to 4 points than 3 and that means this line is effectively set at a -6 on a neutral field. But is Buffalo a team that is only 6 points better than this over-rated Steelers team that -outstatted week after week this season - might be the worst 10-7 team in NFL history? Not in my book, no way! The Bills are at least 2 TD better on a neutral field. Look for the hosts to win this by about 17! Lay the 10 points here. 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday Detroit Lions (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Rams have been on a hot run to close out the season but this Lions team is also playing very well and they are at home and they are very well-coached which is certainly a key when you are facing a well-coached Rams team. Detroit is coming off a huge season and their only loss since December 10th was a tough 1-point loss at Dallas in which it looked like they had the game won. The Lions were robbed by the refs in that game at the end as was well-documented. In this match-up I like the fact that Detroit is the better running team and also is better defensively against the run. The Rams are certainly solid too but the edges here for the Lions in the ground game on both sides of the ball can be a key in a playoff setting. Also both home teams got big wins in yesterday's opening wild card day and laying a -3 at home is a solid line value for a Lions team whose last 11 wins were by at least 3 points. All 7 Rams losses were by at least 3 points this season. The Rams were just 4-4 SU in last 8 games on the road. Lions went 6-1 SU L7 games at home. So if you like the Lions to win the game SU at home you can also see why we have ATS value with this low line available at a -3 as of 8 hours before kickoff. Lay it! 10* DETROIT (-) 

NFL Sunday Green Bay Packers +7 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Cowboys have had an amazing regular season at home but take a closer look at the games. When they faced the Rams, LA was in the midst of a disastrous 3-6 start to the season. LA went 7-1 the rest of the way. When they faced the Eagles, Philly was shell-shocked off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers that began a season-ending 1-5 run. As for wins over other respectable teams, the win over the Seahawks was by just 6 points and the win over the Lions was by just a single point. Anyone who watched those two games knows Dallas very easily could (should) of lost both games outright! As for their other 4 home wins this season, those came against teams with a combined record of 21-47 this season! Per the above, the Cowboys 8-0 home record is a little over-valued. They are not facing a bad team here nor are they facing a team that has been stumbling. In fact they are facing a Packers team that finished the season on a 6-2 SU run! Green Bay played 17 games this season of course and only 3 of the 17 games were a GB loss by more than 4 points! Surprisingly all 3 of those ugly defeats came at home! The Packers were only 4-5 SU on the road but all 5 losses were by 4 or less points and those 5 defeats averaged just a 2.6 point margin. In other words, in this game Dallas is being asked to do something no other team has managed yet this season. The Cowboys are being asked to beat the traveling Packers by a spread greater than 4 points which makes this a 9-0 YTD factor as no team has done that this season! 10* GREEN BAY +7

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - The Dolphins were at Buffalo in last season's playoffs and lost by just 3 points even though Miami was down to a 3rd string QB. For many years, it has been made a big deal when warm weather teams go to cold weather cities. However, Miami has certainly had their share of cold weather games in recent seasons. Also, this is a much a play against the Chiefs as it is a play on the Dolphins. Kansas City just has not looked as strong or as dominant this season. Kansas City went just 5-5 SU in their last 10 games and only 2 of the 5 wins were by more than a 1-score margin! This line is as high as a +5 as of 11 hours before kickoff and I love the value here with this scrappy Miami team. The Dolphins have the better rushing numbers both offensively and defensively in this match-up and that could be a key with brutally cold weather for this game in KC and gusty winds possible. This game could turn into a bit of a grinder and I like having the sizable points on my side here. Also, Kelce's numbers dropped off this season and there also was a decline late in the season. If you are sick of the Taylor Swift drama with Kelce - which perhaps this is impacting him too - don't be surprised if you don't have to worry about it after this week. An outright upset would not surprise me in the least as this is a hungry up-and-coming dog facing a once-dominant Chiefs team that is on the decline. We'll grab the points just in case but we may not even need them. 10* MIAMI (+)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns (-) @ Houston Texans @ 4:30 ET - Absolutely I respect the job they have done this season for the Texans but the fact is CJ Stroud is still a rookie QB making his first post-season appearance and DeMeco Ryans is still a first year head coach. Conversely, Kevin Stefanaski is in his 4th year as Browns head coach. They did make the post-season in his first season as head coach and won in the Wild Card Round over Pittsburgh. Though they lost to the AFC Champion Chiefs in the Divisional round but Kansas City went 14-2 that season. No shame in that. I like how Stefanaski took care of business for the Browns this season even though they had some significant injury issues. Also, Joe Flacco is a 38 year old veteran QB who had a huge push late this season and has this Browns team very confident heading into the post-season. He has thrown passes in 14 playoff games in his career over 6 different post-seasons. In his last 4 post-seasons he has 24 TD passes against only 5 INTs! Flacco is the veteran guy I want here and the Browns defense is the better D plus they come from a tougher division. The other 3 teams in their division went 33-18 this season while the other 3 teams in the Texans division went 24-27 and none of them made the post-season. The Browns, on the other hand, are one of 3 teams that made the playoffs out of 4 from the AFC North. There is a reason that Houston is a home underdog here. Don't let the line fool you! 10* CLEVELAND (-)

CFB Championship Game Monday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - Wow! A pair of 14-0 teams matched up for the Championship Game! The Wolverines and Huskies are both 14-0 now this season. The Wolverines have a great defense but I don't see them shutting down this ultra talented Washington offense. At the same time, the defense of Huskies is NOT their strength yet they have stepped up as needed throughout this season including last week against Texas. Here they do it again and get enough stops to let their offense do the rest to get the outright win in my opinion. We will grab the points just in case but I really do not expect to need them. Currently this line as high as a 5 as of very early game day morning which is a huge value. Alabama, who many felt should not have even made the CFB playoffs, should have beaten Michigan last week no questions asked. Conversely, the Huskies beat a Longhorns team quite handily last week that is the same Texas team that beat the Crimson Tide earlier this season. The point is that all of the above means Wolverines a little overvalued here and Huskies a little undervalued. The value is with the dog in this one. The Huskies did play the tougher schedule this season in comparison with Michigan. Grab the points in this one and look for Pennix to have another massive game as his Huskies outduel McCarthy and the Wolverines in this one. The underdog just has too much offense. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The line is as low as a 2.5 on the Bills here as of early game day morning so it is go time with this one. Buffalo has won 4 straight games and has all the momentum. Not only have the Bills won 4 straight games, they also dominated the Dolphins in their meeting earlier this season. Miami also enters this game after having had their doors blown off by the Ravens last week. It sets up well for continued domination for the Bills in this one as they have won 9 of the last 10 meetings SU. Also, the Bills have a good recent history in the final game of the regular season as they are 5-1 ATS L6 and, with this one for the AFC East title, Buffalo will be fully prepared again. Against possible division winning teams, the Dolphins only have one win and that was against Dallas in a tight game recently. Their other games against these Bills, the Eagles, the Chiefs and the Ravens were all losses. Miami just not  quite there yet in terms of their performance in the most pressure-packed games. This is another one here and the Bills have more experience in these types of affairs and that pays off here. 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Waiting has paid off here as we are now seeing the Eagles available as low as a -4 as of early gameday morning. This is an excellent line value as Philly is motivated to win for more reasons than one. Not only do they still have hopes of the Cowboys losing and opening the door for Eagles to win the division, they also just need to win to get back on track before the playoffs start. Remember they led Arizona 21-6 at the half in last week's loss. That's no excuse but is just a fact and they are capable of winning by a solid margin here against a Giants team they have beaten in 17 of the last 20 meetings. Keep in mind, both teams have struggled on defense this season but the Eagles have the much stronger attack on offense and I don't see New York as being able to keep up in this one. Prior to last week's 1-point loss, 9 of the Giants 10 losses this season have been by 5 or more points. 8 of the Eagles 11 wins this season have been by 5 or more points. The point is that with the drop on this line we now have solid line value here. If you expect the Eagles to win SU which logically most do, then you can also see that the odds favor that SU win also being an ATS cover. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Commanders are getting 13 points here and I feel strongly that it is just too much. I know Washington has struggled but Dallas is their biggest rival. If they can prevent the Cowboys from winning the division, they will certainly go hard in that endeavor. The key here is we don't need Washington to win this game outright to cash our ticket, we just need them to keep the game respectable and I fully expect them to do just that. Keep in mind, Dallas is just 2-5 SU last 7 road games and one of those was a win by just a 3-point margin. The Cowboys enter this game having failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Other than a blowout win over the Eagles, the Cowboys have allowed 27 ppg in their other 4 recent games. Sam Howell has had some big yardage numbers in his starts this season, including 300 against Dallas earlier this season, but he just needs to cut down on his mistakes. Look for Howell to make the most of his 2nd chance in a game that is the Commanders Super Bowl for this season. They will make the most of the chance and I look for this game to be tight throughout. Grab the big points. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

NFL Saturday Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Houston Texans @ 8:15 ET - This line is mostly a 2 but has moved to as high as a 2.5 on the Texans as of about 9 hours before kickoff and that means it is go time with the Colts in this one! Indianapolis has won 6 of 8 games including 4 in a row in non-road games. 3 of those were at home and one was at Frankfurt. Some of their stats are ugly but, the fact is, Indy keeps finding a way. They have allowed only 15 ppg in those 4 victories. The Texans have not won B2B games since they strung together a 3-game winning streak that lasted until mid-November. Houston is 0-3 SU last 3 times they were off a win. CJ Stroud has been a solid QB for the Texans but his numbers are stronger at home than on the road. Overall, the Texans won their most recent road game in OT but had lost 4 of 6 away from home. The Colts home field edge is the difference maker in this key battle in the AFC South! 10* INDIANAPOLIS (+)

NFL Saturday OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:30 ET - Ravens already locked up a spot in the post-season including the #1 seed in the AFC so that means Huntley will be at QB instead of Jackson. However, Baltimore is known for playing well even in meaningless games as their preseason record under Harbaugh has shown for many years. Also, Huntley has plenty of NFL experience including as a starter so he could move this Ravens offense better than many might expect. Additionally, the Steelers offense has been better with Rudolph at QB. Of course the Ravens will want to prevent their long-time rival from earning a playoff berth so I am expecting a solid effort from them here but the Steelers are desperate and will pull out all the stops here - more passing than usual, trick plays, getting the ball downfield quickly, hurry-up offense, etc - and with the drop on this total all the way down to as low as 34 as of about 5 and 1/2 hours before game time, it is go time with this one! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Sugar Bowl Monday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ 8:45 ET - Two great teams of course but I feel the Huskies are under-rated here. A team does not go 13-0 by accident and they had to beat Oregon twice to do that! I respect the Ducks plenty and Oregon is favored by 18 points today on Monday against a fellow 13-0 team, Liberty, which says a lot about how impressive it is that the Huskies beat the Ducks twice this season. Remember too that Washington also has multiple other wins against Top 25 teams as well. The Huskies have a fantastic offensive line and a stellar passing attack and the Horns weakness is pass defense. Look for the Longhorns pass D to be exposed in this game. Texas hammered Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game but their two games before that against ranked foes featured a loss to Oklahoma and a 3-point win (in OT) over Kansas State. Yes, the Horns beat Alabama this season but they benefitted from a 2-0 turnover edge in that one also. Don't get me wrong, Texas is a high-quality team but they are really going to struggle to stop this dynamic Huskies offense. Washington does not have a great defense but they can get enough stops to let the offense dominate games and that is what I expect again here. Texas has revenge here from losing to the Huskies in last year's bowl but the Longhorns actually have a poor ATS history when playing high-quality teams away from home. The win over Alabama, we talked about it above, was a rare exception. Too much value to pass up here with this line in the +4 range as of about 10 hours before kickoff. 10* WASHINGTON (+) 

Rose Bowl Monday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 5 ET - Of course these are two of the best teams in the nation or they would not be playing in this game. Now let's look at what top teams have done from the respective conferences of these two teams. Note that other top Big Ten teams including Iowa (great defense, horrible offense) are not as balanced as this Alabama team. In the bowls that have already taken place prior to today, Ohio State lost 14 to 3 to an SEC team and Penn State lost 38 to 25 to an SEC team. As for other top SEC teams that played in the bowls, Georgia just rolled 13-0 Florida State 63 to 3. Now, I fully realize there were other variables in those games but the point is that the top SEC teams have certainly looked a lot better than the top Big Ten teams. That is another key as to why I am taking the Crimson Tide over the Wolverines in this one. Another key is coaching in the biggest of games. Harbaugh has lost 6 straight (both SU and ATS) in bowls and playoff games. Now look at Saban's record in semi-final playoff games like this. He is 6-1 SU! We should not even need the points here but we'll go ahead and grab the 2 points available in this one as of about 7 and 1/2 hours before kickoff. 10* ALABAMA (+)

NFL Sunday 10* Minnesota Vikings Pick'em -110 vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Packers have been so bad defensively in recent games. The Vikings have been doomed by turnovers but this team is talented on both sides of the ball and the QB change this week will pay for Minnesota. At the same time, the Vikings defense is much stronger than the Packers and they are at home here. This is a revenge game for Green Bay and that is keeping this line in the pick'em range when the reality is that the Vikings home field edge and defensive edge should be worth much more than they are being given credit for here. I trust Jaren Hall to have a solid game at QB as he gets his chance after Mullens cost the Vikings game each of the past two weeks due to turnovers. Justin Jefferson will have a huge game at WR for Minnesota and the Packers D continues to struggle. Vikings off a home loss to Detroit but this is after allowing just 16 ppg in their 3 prior home games. Vikes have allowed only 14 ppg in their 7 wins this season and they are solid on D at home. The Packers have allowed 29 ppg the last 3 weeks and they faced teams that are a combined 15-30 this season. Green Bay barely got by a 2-win Panthers team last week at Carolina and this followed a 1-5 run last 6 road games for the Pack. They do not travel well and the Vikings take advantage here. 10* MINNESOTA Pick'em -110

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 4:25 ET - Beautiful football weather in Denver for this one. Chilly but sunshine and light winds. We get value with this total as low as 37.5 as of about 5 hours before kickoff. These teams are not known for offense but look for big upticks from each here. Wilson was benched for a reason and don't be surprised if Jarrett Stidham comes in and has a strong game as the Broncos get a boost to the offense as everyone fired up to make things work and chase a playoff berth. As for the Chargers, Herbert is out of course but I do not care who they use at QB here. LA has been given a boost by the head coaching change that absolutely had needed to happen and they will continue to play hard here and look to play spoiler against a divisional foe. The Chargers have scored more than 20 points each of their last two games but also allowed 24 points or more in their last 3 games. The Broncos have averaged 21 ppg their last 3 games but also have allowed more than 21 points in 3 of last 4. The odds favor each team getting into the 20s in this game and yet we are dealing with a total in the upper 30s. I love the value here because you have two highly motivated teams here as Chargers continue to work hard after the coaching change and Broncos want post-season chance. Also, in the thin air of Denver, the field goals can be kicked from great distance so we could see plenty of field goal chances on a nice weather day here. 10* OVER the total in Denver

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Titans are 2-3 last 5 games but two of those losses were in OT and all 3 losses were by exactly a 3 point margin. That is why the +4 being offered here as of 3 hours before kickoff is a solid line value! Tennessee lost to Houston two weeks ago in the most recent meeting between these divisional rivals. The Titans, after another tight loss last week, are relegated to playing the role of spoiler here. Certainly that is not a role they take lightly against bitter rivals. They would love to prevent the Texans from winning the division. Tennessee has not lost by more than 3 points since mid-November. Houston has only 2 wins by more than 3 points in their last 9 games! This is an easy call in terms of value with the points with a highly motivated divisional underdog! 10* TENNESSEE (+)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Arizona Cardinals @ 1 ET - The Eagles are about a 12.5 point favorite as of 3 hours before kickoff in this one. The Cardinals have lost 10 of 12 games and those 10 losses have been by an average margin of 15 ppg. Couple that with the fact that they are on the road for this one and facing one of the top teams in the league and their QB Kyler Murray is dealing with an illness. Remember that same issue (an illness) plagued Eagles QB Jalen Hurts a few weeks ago and it showed in his play on the field in that tough loss. Well now it is Murray that will likely play but not be 100% and he does not have the supporting cast that Hurts has either. In other words, this one will get ugly. After the Cowboys controversial 1-point win in which every key penalty call including a ridiculous one on a 2-point conversion that stole a win from the Lions, the Eagles now are in a key situation in which they must win this game. They will not mess around and will leave no doubt. They have deserved some better results than they have gotten of late and I know the Eagles recent wins have not been by big margins but this Cardinals team is very weak defensively and the Eagles are angry (even coming off a win) as they still are fired up about not having an "A game" effort and they had the undeserved loss to the Seahawks the week before the win over the Giants last week. Philly is favored with good reason here and they have averaged 30 ppg in their 11 wins this season while Cardinals have scored 15 ppg in their last 10 losses. I am looking for a 31-14 type game given all of the above but honestly a margin of 20+ points is likely here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - This line is the 5.5 range as of 8 hours before kickoff. Note that both teams have already clinched a post-season berth but there is still some motivation for both teams here. Detroit and Dallas both need to win for playoff positioning reasons but, without a doubt, the pressure is much more on the Cowboys than the Lions in this one. Detroit already clinched the NFC North while Dallas is still chasing the Eagles for the NFC East division title. So the pressure is on Dallas here and they have not been handling it well. They already lost B2B games after finally catching the Eagles at the top of the division. Losses to the Bills and Dolphins the past two weeks and the Cowboys continue their pattern of losing to quality teams. Certainly the Lions are a quality team. Also, statistically Detroit has the much better rush defense in this match-up. Their weakness is pass defense but Prescott has a history of struggling in big games against better teams. Also, another angle I like a lot in this match-up is Lions head coach Dan Campbell is a Texas guy. He played for the Cowboys during his NFL career and was born in Texas and in college he played with the Aggies of Texas A & M. In 2021, he became head coach of the Lions and it was a tough season but he has fully completed the turnaround. By the way, during his time with the Lions, they have met just one time and that was last season and was a 24 to 6 loss for Detroit. You can bet, literally, they have their eyes on payback here as this team has come a long way and this Lions team playing with confidence and without pressure whereas Dallas needs this game to have any reasonable shot in the NFC East race with the Eagles. We'll grab the points here but I do not even expect to need them. As usual, the Cowboys fall on the big stage like they so often do. Against quality teams like the Dolphins, Bills, Eagles and 49ers the Cowboys are 1-4 SU. Give me the points. 10* DETROIT (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wyoming Cowboys vs Toledo Rockets @ 4:30 ET in Arizona Bowl - The total on this one is in the 44 range as of about 6 hours before kickoff. The Rockets defense is going to struggle here. Wyoming not known for offensive prowess but they have displayed a better passing game this season which gives them a nice run/pass balance. As for Toledo, they will be using Gleason at QB and certainly he is a step down from Finn and does not give them the dual-threat capability. However, I expect him to surprise here. He has only played in a couple games last season but he was much more active last season and has thrown for 12 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions in his action in the last two seasons combined. In the last 5 appearances where Gleason has taken double digits in snaps, he has thrown for at least 2 TD passes in 4 of those 5 games! He has that respectable 12-3 TD-INT ratio and I expect the Rockets to still move the ball well in this game as this is not some newbie coming in for Finn in this one. As for the Cowboys, they are known for solid defense but always tend to be tougher at home historically. Note that prior to their season ending road blowout win, they allowed over 30 points in all 4 road games and lost all 4 of them! I do not expect Toledo to have that big of an output here but the Rockets have a solid offensive framework and will score some points here but so too will Wyoming against a weak Toledo defense. Asking each team to get into the 20s here for total points is not asking for too much given all of the above. 10* OVER the total in Arizona Bowl

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ Noon ET in Peach Bowl - This line in the 4 to 4.5 range as of about 2 and 1/2 hours before kickoff. Two very strong 10-2 teams but Ole Miss head coach Kiffin is 2-4 SU and ATS in bowls while Penn State head coach Franklin is 7-4 ATS in bowls. I also like the fact that the Nittany Lions have the much better defense in this match-up. The Nittany Lions road that defense to a 9-3 ATS mark this season and I expect one more cover from them to close the season out. Even though PSU defensive coordinator Manny Diaz left the program earlier this month as he took the head coaching job at Duke, all his systems are in place and this rock solid defense has seemed to rally around the fact they want to win one more for Diaz even though he has departed the program. Yes, the cohesiveness and bond was that strong. Diaz even came back to speak to the players after taking the job at Duke and that is not something you always see. This is a tight-knit group that this PSU defense has and the co-defensive coordinators calling this game will combine with the players for one last super strong game under the Diaz schemes. Next season Tom Allen (formerly with Indiana) takes over as the DC. In this bowl match-up, as strong as the Ole Miss offense is, they are facing one of the toughest defenses in the nation plus the Rebels defense is not strong enough to slow down a determined Lions bunch that can run the ball very well and remember that this passing attack had 27 TDs against only 1 INT all season long. Yes, that includes games against Michigan and Ohio State! 10* PENN STATE (-) 

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cotton Bowl - Missouri Tigers vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8 ET - This total is in the 49.5 to 50 range as of about 9 hours before kickoff. I know Ohio State has a great defense but do you think the Buckeyes are excited to be here? They are used to playing for the National Championship or at least playing in a January 1st bowl. This season they are not only NOT playing on New Year's Day or New Year's Eve or even the 30th of December. The Buckeyes are playing on the 29th of December! Ohio State's defense is not going to be at it's greatest in my opinion as this bowl is a letdown by their standards. That opens things up for a solid Missouri offense to take advantage. However, I do not trust this Tigers defense and they will struggle particularly against the pass. Now, of course, Ohio State has opt outs and their top QB is one of them but you know the talent level of Buckeyes recruits. Ohio State has solid fill-ins across the board on offense despite having some opt-outs at the skill positions. That said, the Buckeyes should roll here on offense but I do not expect their defense to be without some trouble in this one. Missouri is bringing a talented slate of weapons for this one on offense and they averaged in the mid-30s on offense this season as did the Buckeyes. Now, of course, given the circumstances I am not expecting the offenses to reach mid-30s here but we do not need to. We only need mid-20s range for each and I fully expect that given all of the above. That puts this one past the 49.5 to 50 number currently posted on this one. 10* OVER the total in Cotton Bowl

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (-) vs Memphis Tigers @ 3:30 ET in the Liberty Bowl which is played in Memphis. The current line on this one in the 10 to 10.5 range as of about 5 hours before kickoff. Someone knows something. Yes, this is one of those games. The Tigers have the better record, are playing at home for this game, and yet the line has moved toward Iowa State and the Cyclones are now double digit favorites in this game! Don't be surprised when the road team wins this one huge. This one features a Memphis team that did not have to play UTSA in the regular season and lost their games with SMU and Tulane. The reason I mention that is because those are the only 3 teams in the AAC that, besides the Tigers, had a winning record. So the point is Memphis has not even beaten a team in their conference that ended up with a winning record in conference action. Now the Tigers go outside their conference to face a tough Iowa State team from the Big 12. Yes, Memphis has a solid offense that puts up big numbers but their defense is horrible. The Cyclones will move the ball well on the Tigers throughout this game and the flip side is that Iowa State will be able to get some stops on Memphis. Note that, against unranked teams like the Tigers, the Cyclones have won 5 straight games and allowed only 14 ppg in the last 4 victories in that run. Iowa State is on a 6-3 run and the only 3 losses were to ranked teams and the 6 wins saw them average 34.7 ppg. Against this bad Tigers defense they will score at least that and I just do not see Memphis keeping up as the Cyclones defense is a respectable one to say the least. Also, look at what other AAC teams have done in the bowls. Although USF throttled a disinterested Syracuse team, the other 3 AAC teams that have played in bowls were all beaten badly and struggled to score points. Rice lost 45-21, SMU lost 23-14, and Tulane lost 41-20. Also, NONE of those 3 played teams as tough as Iowa State. Look for the Cyclones to roll here as AAC has proven to be even weaker than advertised! 10* IOWA STATE (-) 

Bowl Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 58.5 in Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona Wildcats @ 9:15 ET in Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX - The Sooners will be without Dillon Gabriel as he is transferring to Oregon. However, they have a 5-star recruit who does at least have some game-day experience getting the start in this one. He also is a threat with his legs and OU, even with some guys out on offense, still have an ultra dangerous offensive attack. This Sooners team averaged 43 ppg this season but they are not a very good defense. They are facing a Wildcats team that also piled up points this season. Arizona was particularly potent late in the season and they averaged over 450 yards per game on offense while Oklahoma averaged over 500 yards per game on offense this season. While OU will be missing some guys on offense it looks like the Cats will mostly be intact for this game. That said, I trust this Sooners system to score points on anyone! At the same time, Arizona will be piling up points with their full strength offense ready to roll in this one! The Wildcats finished the season on a 6-game win streak and averaged scoring 39 ppg in these victories. As you can see, both these teams can pile up points in a hurry and OU has depth so despite guys missing they will surprise and I like their QB for this one as well. I expect each team to sneak into the 30s in this one so I feel we have excellent value here with this total in the upper 50s! 10* OVER 58.5 in Alamo Bowl

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 33.5 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets @ 8:15 ET - This total is just too low when you consider that Siemian has rejuvenated the Jets offense a bit and he is getting the call as starter again this week. Also, the Browns are legitimate one touchdown favorites here and Flacco has revitalized the Browns offense as well. So here you have a Cleveland team that has won 3 in a row and is playing with confidence and they are hosting a Jets team that has won 2 of 3 and is looking to play the role of spoiler. Jets have allowed 29 points per game last two games. However, they have also scored 30 points in their last two wins. Cleveland has seen each of last five games total at least 37 points! The Browns have allowed 26 ppg last 5 games but have also scored 29 ppg last 3 games. Look at the line on this game and this total. That would put this game, given the spread by the oddsmakers, at about 21-14 but I just don't see either team being held below those numbers given the above. Also, definitely decent weather by Cleveland standards for late December for this one. I respect these defenses but the offenses are playing with more confidence of late and this posted total is just too low given the recent level of play of these offensive units. 10* OVER 33.5 in Cleveland 

Bowl Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas A & M vs Oklahoma State in Texas Bowl @ 9 ET - The Aggies lost a lot of key guys heading into this bowl game whether through injury or transfer portal. However, a number of those key players are defensive stars. As a result, Texas A & M is going to have big struggles in this game to stop the Cowboys offense. I expect Oklahoma State to score big in this game but the issue for OSU is their defense can not be trusted. The Aggies are the more talented team in this match-up, even with some replacements on offense this A & M still has plenty of talent at the skill positions and they were buoyed by late season success on offense after Fisher was fired. Overall, the Aggies have scored an average of 37 points over the last 5 games! Oklahoma State finished the season with a 49-21 loss to the Longhorns. However, the Cowboys had scored at least 27 points in 10 of their first 12 games this season! OSU does have a dangerous offense and the Aggies missing key players on the defensive line and in the linebacking group. The Cowboys have the talent on offense and a coaching edge here with veteran Gundy calling the shots and I expect them to move the ball very well here. Their defense allowed 441 yards per game this season and will be exploited here. The current total as of about 9 hours before kickoff is in the 54 to 54.5 range and I am expecting this game to get well into the 60s. 10* OVER the total in Texas Bowl

Bowl Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats @ 5:30 ET in First Responder Bowl in Dallas, TX - The current total on this one is as low as a 59.5 as of about 9 hours before kickoff. Rice does not have their starting QB for this one but his replacement has some experience. Couple that with the fact that the Texas State defense is so bad and I expect the Owls offense to function just fine in this one. Another big key here is the Rice defense is not great and the Texas State offense is a very aggressive one that has had huge success. The system brought in by the new coach has flourished here and the Bobcats attack will be relentless in this game. Looks like great weather expected for this one as well. So this one checks all the boxes for ending up a high-scoring game that should see plenty of points. Rice closed the season with B2B wins but prior to that they were 4-6 and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of those 10 games. Texas State's last two games EACH totaled at least 96 points! 3 of their last 4 games did total at least 69 points! The Bobcats are scoring an average of 36 ppg this season and are about a 4 point favorite here. That puts this one at a 36-32 final and that is more than a full TD above the current posted total on this one so we'll step in and look to take full advantage. 10* OVER the total in Rice

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - This total is down to as low as a 46 as of about 11 hours before kickoff on this one. I love going contrarian in this one. Of course you are talking about two solid defenses here but why is this total so high? Exactly! This total is high because we are also talking about two great offenses here and I feel the running ability of Jackson for the Ravens is going to frustrate the Niners in this one. He is a major headaches for defenses and, at the same time, Baltimore will struggle to slow down the Niners in this one as their offense is "off the charts" good. Lets dig into the numbers on this one. The 49ers enter this one having won 6 straight games and they averaged scoring 34.5 points per game during this stretch! So they must of played a bunch of bad teams, right? No, not at all actually! The Niners had 5 of the 6 games against teams that are likely to end up in this year's playoffs! So the point is that San Francisco can move the ball on anyone and will do so again here against the Ravens. Baltimore has won 8 of 9 games and they have scored an average of 26.4 ppg in those 9 games. Note that the spread on this game is right around a 7 and, per the above, a 34-27 final would not be a shock. Now certainly that is not what I am necessarily expecting here but that gives us a lot of wiggle room (about 2 TDs) compared to the posted total on this game! I am definitely looking for 48 to 55 as a likely range on this total. These are two of the top offenses in the NFL and the weather will be great for this one as well. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 4:30 ET - The Giants had won 3 straight before a 24-6 loss last week. However, 2 of those 3 wins were at home. In terms of road games, the Giants have lost 3 of 4 and all 3 of those losses were by at least 18 points! Overall, 5 of their last 6 road losses have been by at least 18 points and the average margin of those defeats is 19 points! The Eagles are off 3 straight losses but they faced 3 playoff teams in the 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks. Those teams have a combined record of 29-15. The Giants, on the other hand, have a 5-9 record. Philly is going to move the ball much better this week as Hurts is now healthy and the Eagles offense does look healthy, for the most part, heading into this one. The defense has some injuries but the Giants offense just does not have the weapons to take advantage. The Eagles so hungry off 3 straight losses, are at home, and they can take advantage of the Cowboys loss yesterday to move back into first place in the division. A lot of positive energy as a result of all of the above is going to see the Eagles win this one in an annihilation. The Giants just do not have the offense to keep up here. The Giants have scored an average of 9 points in their 9 losses this season. The Eagles are averaging 30 points in their 10 victories their season. That puts this game at about 30-9 which is a victory margin of 21 points and we are looking at a line that is just under the 2-TD margin - the current line on this game. The line is 13.5 on this one as of about 8 hours before kickoff. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 36.5 in Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - We get line value here due to the long-term under trending in NFL this season plus that trend being particularly strong in primetime games plus the fact that these teams each had low-scoring tendencies up until recently. Now, things are starting to change and yet the betting markets have not caught up with that and getting this total in the mid-30's is a bargain to say the least. The Broncos are off a loss but this followed a 6-1 SU run in which Denver averaged 22.6 points scored per game. Also, Denver has allowed an average of 21 ppg in their last 6 games. The Patriots are off a home loss that totaled 44 points. Also, in terms of true road games (not neutral site), the Pats have seen 4 of last 5 total at least 38 points! Those 4 games averaged 41.5 points per game and that is the range I am expecting with this one today as well. Zappe has 4 TD passes for the Patriots the past two weeks. Wilson has 3 TDs the past two weeks. Also he has 13 TDs against only 1 INT in his 7 home games this season. Patriots will surprise on the road here as Zappe continues to work hard to get this offense going and Broncos D has struggled some recently but, also, the Broncos strong play continues at home. 10* OVER 36.5 in Denver 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins PK -115 / -120 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - When the Cowboys prove they can beat a good team on the road I will stop fading them away from home. But as I noted in their game at Buffalo last week when we had the Bills, the Cowboys almost always struggle against good teams and particularly when on the road. As I mentioned in last week's write-up on Buffalo, the Cowboys were off the shocking absolute blowout of the Eagles the prior week. That was a huge divisional win for Dallas but the most shocking aspect was not just the final score and the domination. The most shocking aspect is the Cowboys finally beat a good team. The fact is Dallas almost always fails against good teams. It has been their modus operandi (m.o.) for quite some time now. The Cowboys dominate all the bad teams and plump up their stats in those games and then get everyone excited but then they crumble against quality teams. Give Dallas credit for the big win over Philly but also it looks like something continues to be amiss with the Eagles the past few weeks. That is certainly not the case with Miami. The Dolphins have won 6 of their 7 games played in Miami this season and their only loss was by a single point against Tennessee. That said, I feel we have some solid home value here with the Dolphins in this one. Dallas, including post-season action, is 0-5 both SU and ATS the last 5 times they have been road dogs. Of course when the Cowboys are road dogs it means they are facing a quality team. This goes back to what I was saying above in that Dallas usually struggles against quality opposition and, of course, road games are the toughest. Dolphins are about 1 point favorite here as of about 5 hours before kickoff but they also are available in the -115 to -120 range on the money line which is the better value in my opinion. Look for that play against situation involving Dallas as a road dog to improve to a PERFECT 6-0 the last six. 10* MIAMI (-)

Scott NFL Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans Money Line +145 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - Seattle on a short week plus traveling. Seahawks also off miracle in over the Eagles on Monday night. It was not just a miracle in terms of the late drive for the last second game deciding score. It was a miracle because of a non-pass interference call in the end zone not too long before that which would have given the Eagles the ball first and goal and they would have pushed in with their tush push play like they always do. Philly was already leading the game at the time and would have cemented the game away right there but instead the officials decided it was okay to let a Seahawks defender push the Eagles receiver away so he could intercept the ball. Yes, I had a huge play on the Eagles and yes I am bitter about it but that is merely serving to gives us line value here. I will enjoy watching this Seahawks resume their losing ways this week. Seattle had lost 4 straight before that "phantom win" over the Eagles and the Seahawks also have a disgruntled QB in Geno Smith who will now start this week. This spells disaster as Seattle faces a Tennessee team who gets a rejuvenated Ryan Tannehill back at QB for this game and the Titans will take advantage of hosting a Seahawks team that has a "sparkling" 0-5 SU run in their last 5 road games! I am happy to test this 5-0 play against streak here and we do not even need the points here to test it. Give me the money line here and the Titans have not lost in regulation since mid-November. The point is that the Titans could easily be 4-0 last 4 but they were on the wrong end of two OT games. 10* TENNESSEE +145 

NFL Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings Money Line +135 vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - This is another home dog situation I like a lot as the Vikings have the much better defense than the Lions D. Plus Minny is at home for this game plus the Vikes are off that game versus the Bengals in which they completely blew the game and lost it in OT. This followed wins in 6 of last 8 games and the Vikings have allowed an average of 16 points in their last 3 home games and that even included a win over the 49ers. This Vikes team can D up and was off a shutout win on the road just prior to last week's loss at Cincinnati. Minny will bounce back from that here and note that the Lions have lost each of their last two divisional games. Also, before beating Denver last week, Detroit had allowed an average of 30 ppg in their last 5 games! I am grabbing the better D at home and off a loss and we do not even need the points. Grab the money line in this one. 8* MINNESOTA +135 

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play LA Chargers (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 8 ET - As of about 7 and 1/2 hours before kickoff this line is in the 13 range. The Chargers will be a different team this week. Yes they got blown out by Raiders and Broncos the past two weeks but the yardage was not nearly commensurate with the final scores of those games. They were fluke final scores. Now the Chargers have fired their head coach and will be different this week. After getting blasted 63 to 21 at Las Vegas last week on Thursday, Los Angeles is anxious to get back on the field and make up for that embarrassment. Yes, the Bills are a solid team but to be laying nearly two touchdowns here sure seems like a bit much. Buffalo is off 3 straight huge games - Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys - and has a divisional revenge game on deck versus Patriots. Don't be surprised if this game is decided by a single score margin. The Chargers, prior to B2B losses, were just 5-7 on the season but only 2 losses by more than 3 points in those dozen games! A lot of line value here with the huge points for the home dog in a situation where the road favorite may not be 100% focused. 10* LA Chargers (+)

CFB Bowls Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 7:30 ET - The Utes coach Whittingham is 11-5 SU in bowls! The Wildcats coach Braun is 0-0 SU in bowls! Indeed, this is his first ever bowl and Whittingham has been coaching at Utah as a head coach since 2005. At that time Braun was still PLAYING - not coaching - College Football at Winona State in Minnesota. In fact, Whittingham's coaching career dates all the way back to 1985 when he was a graduate assistant at BYU so he has been coaching since the year Braun was born! I know the Utes had higher hopes this season but they are still coming to Vegas with sights set on winning this bowl. If they did not care about winning it they would not have asked their QB to stay and play in this game even though he will be transferring after this season. By the way, why is he transferring? Is Bryson Barnes disgruntled with the program? No, not at all. He just wants to play and he knows that Cameron Rising, off a huge 2022 season, will be back in 2024 with Utah after missing all of 2023. Barnes does not want to ride the bench behind a star QB like Rising potentially all season long next year. So Barnes will look to go out on top here with the Utes and I like the coaching experience edge and the fact that Whittingham demands the best from his players. The Utes finished 8-4 this season but the 4 losses were all to teams in the top 20 when they faced them. The Wildcats finished the season 7-5 and 3 of their 5 losses were to unranked teams and Northwestern scored an average of only 8 points in those 3 losses to unranked foes! Northwestern faced two ranked teams this season and lost those games by a combined scored of 29 to 7! The Utes also get a boost with the return of RB Micah Bernard for this one. He is a solid running back and he is solid out of the backfield too in the receiving game as well. Utah wants this game and they have won Pac-12 Championships in this stadium in Vegas in recent seasons as well. They are use to playing here, are the stronger team, and we get line value with this one dropping from a 9.5 down to a 6.5 as of about 8 hours before kickoff. 10* UTAH (-)

CFB Bowls Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in South Alabama Jaguars vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7 ET - This total has dropped to as low as a 44 as of 9 hours before kickoff and yes I am aware of the opt outs and guys entering the transfer portal as well. The fact is this has resulted in line value on this total as it is far too low in my opinion. For one thing, South Alabama is a huge favorite for a reason and this Bowl game is being played in their home venue as well! That said, if the odds makers are close with the spread here (as they so often are) that means we just need about 14 points from the Eagles and we win this total. That's because, in theory, that would mean a 31-14 final given this spread of the Jaguars as a 17 point favorite. Eastern Michigan has scored more than 20 points in 7 of last 8 games! In those 8 games, the Eagles have averaged scoring 23 ppg! South Alabama played another MAC team, Central Michigan, earlier this season and that was a 34-30 loss. Again, this posted total just too low here as we get line value due to opt outs. Neither team is good against the pass. Both teams will attack through the air regardless of who is under center. The Jaguars have averaged scoring 32 ppg last 11 games. The Jags have allowed 22 ppg last 9 games. Take advantage of the low posted total here and look for an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in South Alabama

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 67.5 in Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 6:30 ET in Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, FL - This total has gone from low 60s to upper 60s and it is just too much the way I see it. Yes, each team is known more for offensive production than defensive strength but, even with that, 8 of 12 UCF games totaled less than 63 points! As for GT, 9 of 12 games totaled 65 or less points! Both teams know they are facing defenses that do tend to struggle against the run and I do expect a heavy dose of the ground game in this one from each team and that means running clock. Georgia Tech is a more pass-oriented offense than they use to be in years past when they ran the option attack heavily on offense. However, they still know that controlling the time management of this game with a heavy dose of ground attack is going to be a key to keeping this explosive UCF offense off the field as much as possible. As for the Golden Knights, they want to utilize their ground attack throughout this game to take advantage of a GT defense that allowed over 200 rushing yards in 5 of last 6 games. To get a game into the 70s in total points you generally need an emphasis on the aerial attack and I just do not see that being the case for either team in this one and this one lands in the 50s the way I see it. Take advantage of the added value of the line move on this total as well and look for 65 or less. 10* UNDER 67.5 in Gasparilla Bowl

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Rams vs NO Saints @ 8:15 ET - Waiting as this has paid off to delay release time some and this line is down to a 45 as of about 6 hours before kickoff. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in 6 of last 8 games. They have averaged 25 points per game last 10 games. New Orleans is off B2B wins and the Rams have won 4 of 5 so each team playing with extra confidence here. Also, Los Angeles has scored an average of 30 points per game during this 5-game stretch. Though there is some rain expected in the area this evening in LA it is expected to light at least for the majority, if not all, of the game. Also, winds expected to be light as well. That said, both offenses should be able to operate as they want tonight and the Saints have allowed 24.5 ppg in their last 4 games away from home. The Rams have allowed 24 ppg last 9 games. We should see both teams getting to at least the 24 point mark here and I see this game finishing in the 50s for total points scored as two confident offenses are squaring off in this one. Carr and Stafford both poised for big games in this one the way they have been going. The Saints will have WR Olave back for this one as well. Also, in terms of trending, the over is 3-0 / 100% this season when the Rams are off a game decided in regulation (non-OT) in which they scored at least 28 points! This one tests that 100% season-long trend and I expect the winning to continue as we should see another high-scoring match-up here given all of the above. 10* OVER the total in LA Rams

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (-) vs South Florida @ 8 ET - This is the Boca Raton Bowl in Florida so the location certainly favors the Bulls. However, the Orange are the stronger team and this line has dropped from near 6 to near 3 and it is go time for me. Syracuse has an interim coach here but Nunzio Campanile will bring out the best in this team here. I realize the Syracuse QB is out for this one but look for the Orange to have a Wildcat offense in place for this one that utilizes the skills of their skill position players at QB. They should not have a problem here against a Bulls defense whose D is a major weakness. USF has allowed 455 ypg on the season and they played a weaker schedule than the Orange did. Also, Syracuse is going to take advantage of a team that had lost 4 of 6 before closing the season with a win over Charlotte. In those 4 losses, the Bulls allowed at least 49 points in all 4 losses! It is hard to trust a defense like that to stop anyone and I like what I am hearing from the side of the Orange in this one in terms of being motivated for this game. The faves are going to bring an "A game" effort here and they cover the FG along the way! 10* SYRACUSE (-)

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play: OVER the total in Frisco Bowl - Marshall Thundering Herd vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 9 ET in Frisco, TX - This total has dropped to the low 50s as of early game day morning and yes I am aware of the opt outs and the fact that Marshall's starting QB is one of them. However, guys can step in and surprise and yes I know Cole Pennington has ugly numbers thus far. The Roadrunners defense is not as strong as past versions but they do have a great offense and this is Frank Harris' final game. They will go all out and push the pace here and the weather looks just fine for this one in Frisco. Look for both offenses to be able to fully open the playbook and Pennington will show improvement here as he has worked with the first team offense heading into this one and he knows he is the guy for this one. Marshall off the 35-21 win in their season finale and will look to build off that here as that got them into this bowl. They are, however, a double digit dog in this one with good reason. Marshall will surprise with moving the ball here but they will not be able to slow down UTSA. Note that the Runners had won 7 straight games before the loss to Tulane to end the season and UTSA had scored an average of 41 ppg in those 7 wins! The Runners are allowing 25 ppg and the Herd are allowing 28 ppg and this one should get well into the 50s. Contrarian play but I see a well-paced game here as the Roadrunners will force the tempo and will force the Herd to play catch up. Great value here with the drop on this line. 10* OVER the total in the Frisco Bowl

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - The Eagles are mostly 3 point favorites, though you may find a 2.5 or two out there, as of early gameday morning. I am aware of the Hurts illness but expect him to play at QB for Philly. In any event, lets also not forget that Geno Smith is still dealing with a groin injury and is unlikely to be 100% if he even plays here. That could leave little-used Drew Lock as the starting QB for Seattle here. Even though the Seahawks have strong receivers, I like the fact that the QB situation could certainly be impactful in that regard! The Eagles defense also could be aggressive here with Patricia taking over the play-calling duties and I expect the Philly D to respond after looking lousy the last couple games. The Seahawks, keep in mind, have lost 4 straight games. The Eagles, courtesy of the Dallas loss yesterday, are again in the driver's seat for the NFC East division and I do not expect them to let this opportunity slip through their hands. Philly is 7-1 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses if the latter of those two losses was against a divisional foe. This one fits the bill in that regard. Also, the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS when they are off a divisional road game. Keep in mind they last were at home off a divisional road game where they had lost at the Rams and then got pounded 31-13 by the 49ers. This is all now part of an 0-4 stretch in which they have allowed 33.3 ppg last 3 games. The Seahawks now off another ugly loss to the Niners this time at San Francisco so this one fits that system play that is 7-0 ATS going against the Hawks! Look for that one to make it 8 IN A ROW right here! Seattle has a great home record this season but played a lot of struggling teams here. The Seahawks are 4-2 at home but 3 of the 4 home wins against teams that are now a combined 9-33 SU this season! The Eagles are 5-2 on the road this season and 3 of the road wins have come against teams that at least a have a .500 record on the year. They can beat this 6-7 Seahawks team and I have no hesitation in backing the 7-0 angle! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

CFB Bowl 10* Monday OVER the total in Famous Toastery Bowl - Old Dominion Monarchs vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ 2:30 ET - This total (51 as of 6 hours before kickoff) has been dropping due to the likelihood that Austin Reed will not be suiting up at QB for the Hilltoppers. Even if that is the case, don't be surprised if Turner Helton has a big game. Yes, I am aware of the opt outs and that the offensive line has been impacted for Western Kentucky but this has happened to them in past bowls as well and they have still piled up points. I do like the Monarchs to score their fair share as well here as they are certainly favored for a reason and WKU has given up some big point totals throughout the season. Note that Old Dominion has some key opt outs on defense as well for this one so Western Kentucky is going to take advantage of this I am sure. WKU is well coached with explosive schemes on offense. They both averaged and allowed around 30 ppg this season. Old Dominion not a big scoring team but they take advantage of a Toppers team that had two solid defensive efforts this season but allowed 32 ppg in the other 10 games. This one should get well into the 50s based on all of the above. Western Kentucky only had 3 of 12 games total less than 51 points this season! Old Dominion allowed 29 ppg in their 6 games away from home this season. 10* OVER the total in the Famous Toastery Bowl

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:20 ET - The current line as of Friday morning is a 3 and I love the value with the small road favorite in this one. The Ravens are actually 5-1 on the road this season. The Jaguars are just 2-3 SU last 5 games and one of those wins was against a Tennessee team that is now 5-8 on the season. The Jags, not including OT points of course, have allowed 26 ppg last 5 games. The Ravens enter this game 10-3 on the season including 7-1 last 8 and Baltimore has allowed only 14 ppg in last 5 games played away form Baltimore. The Ravens are the much stronger defense, particularly against the pass, and Trevor Lawrence is off a game in which he threw 3 picks. This is also a revenge game for the Ravens since they lost here last year by a single point. Baltimore knows they have extra rest on deck with a big Monday night game (their only one scheduled this season) on deck and the Ravens have gone 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when they have a Monday Night game on deck. The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS this season in true home games (not neutral site like London) against non-divisional opponents. That means we have double perfect angles we are testing with this play and I look for another Ravens cover in this one as they are the stronger overall team playing the better football right now and they have the better defense. Getting a 3 here makes this is a great value! 10* BALTIMORE (-) 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The line on this one is as low as 1.5 as of about 5 hours before kickoff but also the money line is as low as a -125 if you have that option as well. The Bills off the big win at Kansas City but the Cowboys off the shocking absolute blowout of the Eagles last week. That was a huge divisional win for Dallas but the most shocking aspect was not just the final score and the domination. The most shocking aspect is the Cowboys finally beat a good team. The fact is Dallas almost always fails against good teams. It has been their modus operandi (m.o.) for quite some time now. The Cowboys dominate all the bad teams and then crumble against quality teams. Give Dallas credit for the big win last week but also it looks like something was amiss with the Eagles the past few weeks. That is certainly not the case with Buffalo. The Bills have won 2 of last 3 and their only loss was at the Eagles in OT in a game that Buffalo deserved to win. That said, I feel we have some solid home value here with the Bills in this one. Dallas, including post-season action, is 0-4 both SU and ATS the last 4 times they have been road dogs. Of course when the Cowboys are road dogs it means they are facing a quality team. This times back to what I was saying above in that Dallas usually struggles against quality opposition and, of course, road games are the toughest. Look for that streak to reach 5-0 ATS here as the Bills continue their strong level of play and catch Cowboys off that huge divisional win over Philly. Arguably this game means even more to Buffalo also as their playoff hopes are hanging in the balance but they gave themselves a boost with the win over the Chiefs last week and will build on that momentum here! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - This total offering great value in the upper 40s. The Cardinals have been a different team since Murray came back at QB and I expect them to score well here but Arizona also has little chance of slowing down a 49ers team that has been clicking and is one of the most dangerous teams in the league. San Francisco is a huge favorite here with good reason of course. Note that they are 10-3 on the season and in their 10 wins they have averaged 33 ppg! The Cardinals, since Murray has come back, have averaged a respectable 20 ppg. Also, Arizona's 6 home games have averaged 52 ppg this season. Look for another high-scoring battle here as the Cards also are off a much-needed late-season bye week. Arizona will have fresh legs here and will move the ball well on their home field and with a rejuvenated offense. However, they are allowing 33 ppg in their home losses this season and the Niners will impose their will against a suspect Cardinals defense as this game goes on. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Giants have rallied around DeVito at QB. They are getting much better play on the offensive line. The defense and even special teams at times is forcing turnovers. New York has a very positive vibe right now and I like backing sizable underdogs in spots like this. They have the momentum and even though the Saints won last week they were outgained by about 100 yards in that victory and it was against a Panthers team that is 1-12 on the season! So New Orleans is a still a bit over-rated right now and the points are generous in this one. The Giants are a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they have entered a game off of exactly 3 straight SU wins. The Saints are 0-3 SU the last 3 times they were off a win in which they allowed 17 points or less. That makes this a double perfect spot and I would not be surprised to see the Giants win outright but we will grab the points just in case. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in California vs Texas Tech @ 9:15 ET in Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA - This total in the 58 range as of about 12 hours before kickoff and this is an excellent value for the over the way I see it. There are so many quarterback opt outs or guys entering the transfer portal in these early bowls in this bowl season and yet here is a rare case where we have the QBs we want entering this match-up. Not only that, these are two teams that are quite solid offensively and yet I can not trust either defense. Particularly the Golden Bears defense has struggled badly much of this season but the reason they are just 3.5 point dogs here is because of their potent offense. I fully expect them to enjoy success against a Red Raiders defense that has proven susceptible at times. Cal closed the season on a winning run but did allow 45.4 ppg in their first 7 conference games this season. Now they face a Red Raiders team that can move the ball well and will take advantage. Texas Tech wrapped the season with a 57-7 loss to Texas and the Red Raiders did allow 29 ppg in their 11 games against FBS schools this season. You can see why I am expecting both teams to enjoy success against these defenses today and note that the Red Raiders, other than the ugly loss to Texas and a low-scoring loss to West Virginia, did score an average of 30 ppg in their other 10 games. Look for both teams to get into the 30s in this one as Cal did average 31.6 ppg in their games this season and are on a 3-game winning streak entering this bowl. 10* OVER the total in Independence Bowl

Saturday NFL 10* Denver Broncos (+) @ Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - Current line is 4.5 as of Friday morning. Not only is Denver 6-1 SU last 7 games, the Broncos had 5 of the 6 wins come against teams that are in the mix for a playoff spot. Now look at a Lions team trending the other way as Detroit has gone just 4-3 SU last 7 games and only 1 of the 4 wins was against a team with a legit playoff shot. That would be the Saints who have a decent chance because they play in a division that does not have a single team with a winning record entering this week's action. The Lions other 3 wins in this 7 game stretch came against 3 teams that entered this week a combined 15-24 and, barring a miracle, will not be in the post-season. In fact, the last time the Lions beat a team that currently has a winning record was way back in Week 1 when they beat Kansas City in a surprise season-opening win. The Broncos also have a win over the Chiefs plus also the Browns, Vikings and Bills - all 4 of those teams have winning records right now entering this week's action. The point is that the Lions have been trending the wrong direction and are not a true 9-4 team the way I see it while the Broncos have been trending the right direction and confidence growing with each win. With each victory, the confidence of Denver is growing. I am not saying they win this outright necessarily but I do feel we have excellent value with this line at 4.5 as of Friday morning meaning that the common final margins of both 3 and 4 would both provide winning tickets with the dog in this one. Goff has thrown multiple picks in 2 of his last 4 games and both were against a Bears team that is just 5-8 this season. Conversely, Wilson had thrown NO picks in 7 of last 8 games prior to his 3-INT performance against the Texans which gave Denver its only loss last 7 games. I like the way the Broncos are trending and feel the Lions are starting to show their true colors as the season has gone on. Give the big points in this one! 10* DENVER (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (+) vs UCLA Bruins @ 7:30 ET in LA Bowl - Points will be at a premium here with both teams having issues at the QB position entering this one. With defenses likely to rule the day, I feel we have excellent line value here with getting the full +6 points in this one as of about 10 hours before game time. The Broncos finished the season much stronger after their coach was fired and the Bruins did not look strong at all wrapping up this season. UCLA lost 3 of last 4 games and did not score more than 10 points in any of those 3 losses! The Broncos won 4 straight games to close out the season and they scored an average of 39.5 points per game in those 4 victories. I know they are starting a true frosh at QB in this one but Boise State still has a solid overall team and plenty of weapons they will utilize on offense in this one as well. The Broncos being given generous points here and I will not pass up on it! 10* BOISE STATE (+)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (Pick'em) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:30 ET - This line is right around a pick'em and is as much a play AGAINST the Steelers as it is a play on the Colts. Followers know I have been very anti-Pittsburgh this season as the wins the Steelers have definitely have seem to come mostly by virtue of smoke and mirrors. Statistically Pittsburgh has been outgained in almost every single game this season. Indianapolis enters this game off an ugly loss but this followed 4 straight wins. I like the fact that Pittsburgh has beaten Indy 8 straight meetings yet this line is a pick'em. Looks easy to take the Steelers going for 9 in a row does it not? Well the fact is their offense has been struggling badly and Pittsburgh is averaging just 14 points per game last 4 games and I look for that 8-0 SU run to come to a screeching halt right here. The Steelers have lost 3 of 4 now and quickly are coming back down to earth and the last two losses were at home as well. Now they go on the road. They are now 0-5 ATS when they are coming off an outright upset home loss in non-divisional action. This one, just like their loss to the Patriots after upset home loss to Cardinals, fits the bill in that regard and I look for that "go against Steelers" spot to make it to 6-0 ATS as the hungry Colts get it done at home here. Indy is the much more consistent offense and respectable on the ground and through the air. 10* INDIANAPOLIS 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers + @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - The current line on this as of about 12 hours before kickoff is in the 3 to 3.5 range and I feel we have solid underdog line value with the Chargers in this one. LA will be starting Ethan Stick at QB in this one. Yes he has a little NFL experience but this guy was a winner at North Dakota State - a solid FCS school - and he has some experience already in the LA system here. Now with a full week to prepare for this game and work with the first team offense again, Stick will be fully prepared here and I expect him to surprise. This Raiders team covered their game last week despite not scoring a single point! They lost 3-0 but were 3.5 point dogs last week. They are favored here because of the home field factor in this one but the road team is actually 8-5 SU in Chargers games this season as LA has been better on the road than at home. Also, one of those 5 SU wins for the home team was when the Chargers beat the Raiders in LA earlier this season. Remember too that the Chargers just recently won 6-0 at New England after a low-scoring loss in which they scored just 10 points at home the week before. The Chargers are now a perfect 9-0 ATS when they are on the road and coming off a game in which they scored 10 or less points. Coming off the 24-7 home loss to Denver last week and now on the road at Las Vegas, look for LA to bounce back strong here and take that ATS run to a perfect 10-0 ATS! 10* LA CHARGERS + points

NFL Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The Giants will likely have Tommy DeVito under center for this one and he has been a pleasant surprise as he has improved each week. This one sets up well from a situational perspective. The line has gone up on Green Bay and is now a solid 6 as of early game day morning. The Packers are off that huge upset win over the Chiefs while the Giants benefit here from a late season bye. Note that New York won their two games before the bye week too. I know those wins were over bad Commanders and Patriots teams but, the point is, the confidence of New York is growing with each win. They also will have Tyrod Taylor available here to back up DeVito. The Packers won their most recent road game in upset fashion at Detroit but they had lost 4 straight road games prior to that. Now Green Bay is in an unusual role (for this season) as they are a larger favorite in this one. Keep in mind, the Packers (before these wins over the Lions and Chiefs), had only one win by more than 3 points in the 9 games preceding these two bigger wins. As bad as the Giants have been, they only have lost by more than 5 points twice in their last 7 games and they have the rest edge entering this one plus a home dog edge as they have been much better here since losing big in their first two home games to the Cowboys and Seahawks. Grab the home dog here and don't be surprised if we see an outright upset. Not only is GB off the big upset of KC but they also have TB on deck and the Bucs are in the mix along with the Packers for a Wild Card spot in the post-season. This is a tricky spot for the Pack all the way around. Give me the points. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - This is a classic case of recent results creating an immediate over-reaction from the marketplace. The Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points here as of the overnight hours heading into Sunday. Dallas lost at Philly earlier this season but, since then, they have won 4 straight. However, they barely got by Seattle last week after having walloped the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. The combined record of those 3 teams is now 9-28 on the season. This is classic Cowboys. Dallas tends to look great and pad stats against bad teams and then struggle mightily against others. Note that the Cowboys are now facing 4 straight tough games against teams with a combined 34-14 record. Part of the reason Dallas has such a strong record this season is they have played a weak schedule. The Cowboys already are 0-2 against stronger teams: SF and Philly. The Eagles have already played Buffalo and Miami while Dallas still has those teams on deck. Philly also beat the Chiefs in addition to toppling the Bills and Dolphins. Now, I am well aware that the Niners just waxed the Eagles but the Cowboys got rolled by them as well. The ugly Philly loss to SF just happened and creates the line value here. You know the Eagles will be hungry to bounce back and prove that defeat was a fluke! I have no hesitation in grabbing the points here and challenging Dallas to win this game by more than field goal. The Cowboys just do not have a history of performing well in big games against strong teams. Dallas will struggle just to win, let alone cover, in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - Current line in the overnight hours is as high as a +1.5 for the Bills. The Chiefs are at home where they are 4-2 on the season. The Bills are on the road where they are 1-4 on the season. Kansas City also lost last year's meeting at Buffalo so this is revenge even though yes, I know, the Bills have had some memorable playoff battles recently against the Chiefs that went the wrong way. When you consider all of the above factors, how is KC such a small favorite in this spot? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you! The Bills are the play! Who can bet against Mahomes and Company at a home in a game where the line is virtually a pick'em and we are playing on a team that has had tough road trips this season? We can! Buffalo has a key edge here in that they are coming off a late-season bye week. So the Bills have had plenty of time to rest both mentally and physically plus "recharge their batteries" for this game. The set-up here is a solid one for Buffalo. Remember that the Bills made a change at offensive coordinator last month. The Bills are off that OT loss at Philly but they scored a pile of points and this followed a thrashing of the Jets the prior week. As bad as the Jets are, they do have a respectable defense and the point is that Buffalo put up big yardage against them and against the Eagles. They outgained Philly by over 100 yards and should have won that game. They have averaged nearly 450 yards per game in the two games since the OC change. Conversely, the Chiefs offense just has not been what it once was. The Bills season has ended here in Kansas City in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Though the Bills won a regular season game at KC last season, this is yet another shot at more payback that is on the very field where the Bills season had ended in EACH of the two seasons prior to last year. Payback time. 10* BUFFALO 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - We get line value here (in the 2.5 range as of overnight hours) because the Bengals are off that upset win of the Jaguars on Monday night. Note that the Bengals had lost 3 straight before that. I know Browning had a big game for Cincinnati and is a solid QB. However, Cincinnati is now on a short week and with travel involved as they were in Jacksonville for the battle with the Jags. Indy has won 4 straight games and, like Jags QB Browning, Colts QB Minshew is off a big game. The Colts were favored in this one but the line has flipped to having Indianapolis as the dog. I love fading line moves like this and expect the Bengals struggles to quickly resume. Yes, both teams off OT wins but the Colts have a rest edge here plus they have now won 4 straight whereas the Bengals had lost 3 in a row before that victory. Cincy is allowing 28 ppg last 4 games while Colts allowing 17 ppg last 4 games. 10* INDIANAPOLIS (+) 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Navy Midshipmen vs Army Black Knights @ 3 ET - First off, this game being played in Foxboro, MA instead of Philly. Don't be surprised if we see the change in venue result in the change of results this year as well. Last season's match-up did go over the total but it took OT to get there also. If you only factor in regulation points, last season's game would have ended 10-10 and would have been the 17th straight under in this series. Long-time followers know I am a contrarian. The total was in the low 30s for this match-up and has dropped to the upper 20s. We have value here and I will buck the long-term under trend. For one thing the weather will be surprisingly mild and for this one. Certainly by New England standards it is unseasonably mild and little wind and no precipitation expected. Both teams have averaged about 15 pass attempts per game on the season. That may not seem like much but for these teams it is and it means it will not necessarily be just "run run run" here like we so often see in this match-ups. Of course this will also help in terms of an over. I know that both teams know how to defend the option because they see it so often and that is what leads to a lot of unders. But sometimes there is an overadjustment and I do believe that is the case here as well. I am even seeing some 27.5 out there in some spots as of about 7 hours before kickoff. Again, I completely get it that this low total is all about the match-up but the game being in a different locale this season, the decent weather, a little more passing from each team, plus consider the numbers. Army has had only 2 games out of 11 this season finish with less than 31 points. 7 of 11 Navy games have totaled at least 37 points. I am looking for at least a 17-14 type game here at a minimum. 10* OVER the total in Army/Navy game

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - As of about 8 hours before kickoff the dominant number on this total is 30 but there is even some 29.5 starting to show up. I totally understand the low number but am happy to go against it here. Don't be surprised if Trubisky has a big game for Pittsburgh here and if New England surprises pleasantly whether it is Zappe or Jones under center. Note that the Steelers are not nearly good defensively as their points allowed would lead you to believe. Statistically, Pittsburgh ranks poorly against both the run and the pass! New England ranks only in the middle of the pack statistically against the pass. So, even though the Patriots have some low points allowed numbers o late, don't be surprised if things come unraveled here. The Steelers had scored an average of 19 ppg in their last 5 home games prior to struggling versus the Cardinals last week. Also, 6 of their 7 home games have totaled at least 30 points this season. The Patriots, before a 10-7 loss to the Giants in New York, had seen 4 of their last 5 true road games (non-neutral site) had seen each of their last 3 road games total at least 38 points. The point is that recent point totals have caused an over-reaction in the marketplace. This has created on value on the over here. Also, the weather in Pittsburgh will be perfect football weather. Chilly but little wind and no precipitation expected. Also, the overall trending of night games under the total this season is starting to show signs of a reversal. Last week all 3 primetime games went over the total. Getting this one into the 30s is not too much to ask. Each team has quarterbacks and offenses hungry to prove they can get going again. No this will NOT be a shootout but we don't need a shootout to get into the 30s in this one! Look for each offense to enjoy moderate success here and that gets the job done in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - This line is currently in the 10 range with even some 10.5 out there as of early game day morning. First off a couple of perfect systems here in this situation involving the Bengals. Cincinnati beat Jacksonville the last time these teams met and it was recent enough that it matters. This one in 2021 and that makes this a revenge game for the Jaguars. That puts the Bengals into a nice system angle here as they have covered 10 times in a row when they are a road dog and the team they are facing is playing with revenge. Also, Cincinnati has covered 8 times in a row when they are in non-divisional action against an AFC foe that is on a SU winning streak of at least 2 games. Now, to the meat and potatoes of this spot, I think the Bengals were still dealing with shock last week as they lost their star QB for the season in the prior game. As a result, they got crushed by the Steelers as it was about more than just Joe Burrow being gone for the season, the overall team morale was just crushed and they could never get it going in that game. Keep in mind, these are still professionals and after an effort at Pittsburgh in which they were outstatted by a big margin, they will bounce back here. The Bengals come to play in this one on primetime TV and I love having big dogs that will give big effort in the NFL. Browning is now expected to have Higgins back at WR for this one after he missed 8 games and having him along with Chase makes the offense a little more dangerous. I liked Browning in College and feel he will be stronger now after getting that first start under his belt. The Jags are having a strong season but in 11 games so far they have only 3 wins by more than 10 points on the season. I think this is a on-score game and we have excellent line value. 10* CINCINNATI (+) 

Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - There is snow in the area today but it will be mostly gone by kickoff here. Winds will have also died down by kickoff. It will be cold but nothing brutal. The point is I do not expect either offense to be impacted here. We all know the Chiefs can move the ball well but the big key here too is that the Packers offense has been stronger of late too. Green Bay did tally 377 yards last week and they have scored an average of 24 points per game last 3 games. The Packers have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of last 4 games at home and now face the defending champs. Kansas City only scored 17 points in that recent loss with Philly but they should have had a lot more scoring in that one. They dropped too many passes. The Chiefs then scored 31 last week at Vegas and, other than a fluke 9 point performance at Denver, they have scored 24.7 ppg in their other 10 games. There has been a big under trend on primetime NFL this season and this has forced the numbers down further than they should be. Keep in mind, both teams off divisional wins plus the Chiefs have a big game with the Bills on deck. The defenses are unlikely to be at their best in this kind of scheduling situation and I love the fact this total is in the low 40s. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

NFL Sunday 10* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - The dominant number on this one is a 4 as of about 6 hours before kickoff. The Browns have struggled to score points in their past two games and now they have to go with Joe Flacco at QB in this one. He is a veteran but is entering this game off the practice squad and has not seen live action in a long time. I expect Cleveland's offense to continue to struggle here and they are facing a Rams team that has been much better since their bye week. The confidence of B2B wins for this LA team was much needed and, though the Rams are not spectacular in any one facet, they have solid overall teams stats in terms of the run and the pass numbers on offense and defense. The Browns are very weak on the passing attack and that will be the difference in this one! Don't be surprised if Flacco struggles in his first action in a long time in this one and this is a new team for him as well. The Rams barely snuck by the Seahawks and also just beat a Cardinals team that is having a tough season but the confidence and the locker room atmosphere that is now present in LA is getting contagious. These guys believe they can make a run at the post-season yet and I am expecting another strong effort here to result in the home win and cover in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - This line is a solid 6.5 as of 5 hours before kickoff and this is unchartered territory for the Steelers this season. Look for that to be the difference in this one. Every line in Steelers games this season has been in the 4 range or less (whether dog or fave) and this is a rare bigger favorite situation for Pittsburgh. Yes they put up some big yardage (finally!) last week but this team has been outgained in almost every single game this season and is one of the most fortunate 7-4 NFL teams the league has ever seen at this later stage in the season. This is the perfect spot for a letdown. The Cardinals have a bye on deck. The Steelers are facing a non-conference opponent that has one of the worst records in the league. This game and this line is Trap City for the Steel City! Don't let the line fool you. I was hoping for +7 but there is a reason this line is holding at 6.5 across the board. The ugly dog Cards are the play. The Bengals are really a mess because the entire team morale plummeted after the Joe Burrow injury. The reason I am talking about Cincinnati here is because that is the team the Steelers just piled up all those yards against last week. The Bengals have issues now with Burrow out for the season. The defense of the Cards, though not great, is going to at least bring an effort here. These guys not happy at all about their record and will be going all out for an upset road win before their bye week. 10* ARIZONA +6.5

CFB Saturday SMU Mustangs (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - This line is a around a 3 and certainly presents as a head-scratcher, right? Think about it. Tulane has won 11 straight AAC games and it all began with the last time these teams met. Tulane smashed SMU 59-24 last season as party of a huge campaign they had. They then won 2 more AAC games and are perfect 8-0 in the conference this season too. So now notice this line is around a field even though the Green Wave are at home, won the last meeting by 35 points, have won 11 conference match-ups in a row, AND (here is the kicker) the Mustangs just lost their starting QB for the season. All of those factors and this line is a -3. This is a trap line if I have ever seen one and the key for me is that, even though Stone is out, Jennings is a solid option at QB. Not only that, the Mustangs do rate a slight edge on defense and a strong edge on offense. Now, with Stone out, one could dispute that latter fact but the odds makers certainly are not! This game is priced this way for a reason! Grab the underdog here as Jennings will have a big game here. He does have some experience and has a lot of talent all around him to work with. I am fading the 11-0 SU run of Tulane but even if they sneak out a win we could still get the cover with having the points on our side. Great spot to fade an 11-0 run and I expect an outright upset. 10* SMU (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Boise State Broncos (-) @ UNLV @ 3 ET - This is another one of those funny line scenarios as UNLV is at home and has the better record yet Boise State is favored by about a field goal in this one. The line is holding around a -2.5 as of about 6 hours before kickoff. I like the fact that Boise State was left for dead not too long ago and then their head coach was fired and they could have just packed it in. Instead these team has shown incredible fortitude and fought their way through the battles and somehow ended up in the MWC Championship Game. Hats off to the Broncos for this performance and I expect their momentum to carry them all the way through this game. Certainly the amazing turnaround at UNLV was impressive this season but they had a couple of tight wins and some losses late in the season and I feel some cracks are starting to show here. Keep in mind, the Rebels have a 10-2 ATS record this season but that was also the case with Oregon and New Mexico State last night and both lost their games SU and ATS. I have Boise State rated better on each side of the ball plus they are used to playing this MWC Champ games while the same can certainly not be said for the UNLV Football program. At this time of the year, I like taking teams playing their best football of the season and that is the case with the Broncos. Solid season for the Rebels but they face a surging team with a lot of dangerous playmaking options on offense in this one. 10* BOISE STATE (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - This line is up to 15.5 and it is just too much the way I see it. Yes, Texas has revenge and is the better overall team but we saw that last night also with Oregon when they faced Washington and the Huskies ended up winning outright! I am not expecting an outright win here but I am expecting a solid underdog cover. The Cowboys have been tough as underdogs under head coach Mike Gundy and has covered 4 of 5 as a big 12 dog this season and 15 of 21 long-term when installed as a big 12 dog. As for Texas, they have not been great ATS away from home. Remember that, prior to barely covering at Iowa State, the last 3 Longhorns games played away from Austin were all ATS losses. The Cowboys did beat Oklahoma this year. The Horns lost to that same Sooners team. Don't get me wrong though, I am not saying Okla St is better than UT because of something like this. I am just telling you that this is a quality 9-3 team that plays well as an underdog and is well-coached and is getting too many points here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (+) vs Oregon Ducks Friday at 8 ET - Current line around 10 as of early game day morning. I have tremendous respect for Dan Lanning and the Ducks but feel strongly that they are over-valued here. Kalen DeBoer and the Huskies have some edges in my opinion here and I am expecting a 1-score game as a result. Don't be surprised if Oregon gets their revenge but the win comes by just a FG or TD the way I see it. The big key here is that this is a pair of 2nd year coaches and Lanning is 21-2 with the Ducks against teams not named Washington and DeBoer is 23-2 with the Huskies overall. The key point here is Lanning is 0-2 against DeBoer so far. All the pressure is on him and the Ducks here. I know the Huskies have unbeaten pressure if you will but I feel this is a game in which Oregon has all the pressure to prove they can finally beat Washington again and you know DeBoer and the Huskies have extra confidence from winning the meetings both last season and this season. Also, notice that these teams played the exact same conference schedule expect the Ducks played the Pac-12 worst Buffaloes while the Huskies had to play a top tier Pac-12 team as they faced the Wildcats. Arizona is 10-2 ATS this season also and so is Oregon. Washington did get straight-up wins over both these 10-2 ATS teams and the Huskies are 12-0 SU on the season. Also, consider that the Ducks non-conference schedule included an 81-7 win over an FCS school which certainly padded stats. The Huskies non-conference schedule included, instead of an FCS school in that slot, a Boise State team that is now playing for the Mountain West Championship title tomorrow. The point is that the Huskies are 12-0, played the tougher non-conf schedule, played the tougher conference schedule, have won both meetings that featured these two head coaches, and are getting double digits in points here. This is a lot of line value. Ducks are a great team but this Huskies team is not undefeated by accident. They might lose this game but I expect an epic finish if that is the case. Lanning wants this game bad but, as the line shows, all the pressure is on him here. Lose a 3rd straight to the Huskies (and this one as a double digit fave) and that tarnishes what he has done with this Ducks program so far. This is a pressure game for Oregon. I'll take the big points as the Huskies schedule to end the season was a tough one with 3 straight ranked teams and then rival Washington State so they are better than some of their late season stats would lead you to believe and, keep in mind, they still found a way to win all 4 of those games. These guys are winners. Two very strong teams...I am taking the big points. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The current number as of early game day morning is 9.5 or 9 in most books. I was hoping we might see 10 points popping up but, either way, based on this current line we are essentially challenging the Cowboys to win this game by double digits. I love this spot as a spot to fade Dallas. They are off a big home win but when you look close at what the Cowboys have done this season, it has been a typical Dallas season. They beat up on bad teams (other than when they fell short at Arizona) and they lose to stronger teams (Niners, Eagles). Now I am certainly not saying the Seahawks are in the category of a San Fran or Philly. But I they do have a winning record this season and were 6-3 before suffering B2B tough losses. The Cowboys are 8-3 this season and taking away the two games against the only two teams they have faced that currently have a winning record, the other 8 teams they have faced have a combined record of 26-55 this season! So the Cowboys 8 wins (including twice beating Giants) plus the lone loss to a bad team (Arizona) means that Dallas is 8-1 against teams with a losing record. Those teams current combined losing record is 26-55. Seattle is not SF or Philly but they also are better than all the teams that Dallas has made a living feasting off of this season. This is going to be a much tougher game than most are expecting. Carroll will have his team ready on the road coming off B2B losses and to top it off, the Cowboys have Philly on deck! This is a huge lookahead situation because Eagles are playing SF this week. Dallas knows that Philly could lose that game which means if the Cowboys win this plus beat Philly next week then both teams would be 10-3 and tied at the top of the NFC East! Trust me Dallas has this in their head too and all this in their head means this "cakewalk game" turns into a "lookahead situation" and traditionally these are the types of games Dallas struggles in. Seattle has beaten Detroit and Cleveland this season and those two teams have a combined 15-7 record this season. The Seahawks are 11-2 ATS when they face a non-divisional opponent that has a winning record. Also, coach Carroll's teams have produced a 20-5 ATS record when entering a game off B2B SU losses and this their first losing streak of the season! Even with the big win over Washington on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys are still just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite in Thursday games. Seahawks bounce back here and might even pull off the shocker. Grab the big points. 10* SEATTLE (+)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - This total is a 44 as of early gameday morning. Considering all the unders cashing consistently in the NFL this season and all the primetime unders as well, this total seems too high, does it not? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. This divisional showdown between two teams generally known for defense more than offense might surprise people to see a total posted in the mid-40s. It is no mistake! Note that the Bears will have Justin Fields back at QB for this one. The Vikings Josh Dobbs has been solid at QB so far since being acquired from the Cardinals. Now, look at some recent numbers for these teams. The Bears have given up piles of points when away from Soldier Field this season. Chicago is allowing 29 ppg this season when they are away from home. The Vikings defense has been solid overall this season but even they are allowing 22 ppg at home this season. The Bears offensive production can ramp up again with Fields under center and the Vikings low points allowed numbers hides the fact that their pass defense has been mediocre. Chicago has a decent ground game that can open things up through the air as the ground attack of Herbert and Foreman (plus Fields dangerous legs) keeps the defense honest as they must respect the ground game. As for the Bears defense, they have struggled against the pass this season and the Vikings have good overall numbers through the air this season. Dobbs is not Kirk Cousins but he has looked solid and should be especially strong at home in this one. The first meeting was just 19-13 (Vikes win) and the posted total was also 44. Now the rematch has the same total despite the first one staying under by double digits and the Vikings having only one offensive TD in that game. Head-scratcher? No...just another solid sign from the books that the play here is the over! I expect 50+ in this one! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:25 ET - This is a very tough spot for the Eagles. They are off two of their biggest wins of the season as they beat their biggest division rival threat, the Cowboys, and then went out and got Super Bowl revenge at Kansas City Monday night. Short week, traveling, B2B huge wins...and now hosting a Bills team that is off a huge win after firing their offensive coordinator. Before you say it was only the Jets last week, the fact is the New York defense is respectable and the Bills really did a number on them last week. I look for the Eagles to be emotionally spent for this one and I expect Buffalo to take advantage. The Bills have a bye week on deck so they will go all out here. The Eagles did have a bye week between the Cowboys and Chiefs game but I still think this Philly team is going to be out of gas here. Keep in mind, if that pass was not dropped last week, KC wins that game over the Eagles. In my mind, the current Bills, after the OC change, are truly a much better team than their 6-5 record while the Eagles are a very strong team but truly not a 9-1 team. Just look at this line for validation of that. The odds makers are saying this 6-5 team is equal to this 9-1 team and that is why Philly favored by only 3 even though this game is on their home field! That said, the public likely to look hard at the Eagles here but the sharp money - including ours - will be on the Bills. 10* BUFFALO

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:05 ET - This line is -1 as of about 8 hours before kickoff but why even lay -1 -110 when there is access to -120 or -115 on the money line. The latter is my recommendation on this one and I do look for Denver to come up with a dominating win but, just in case it is tight, would be nice to have a pick'em rather than laying even 1 point. The Browns got a tight win last week but that was at home and now their rookie QB is going on the road for the first time and the Broncos come into this one surging. Also, Cleveland's win with the rookie at QB was over a Steelers team that entered the game 6-3 on the season but has now been outgained in all 10 games this season. The point is that this is going to be a tough spot for Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) as Denver is at home and has won 4 straight games. Even the defense is gaining some confidence as the Broncos have allowed only 17.4 ppg last 5 games and that included facing Chiefs twice plus Bills and Vikings! Both the Browns and Broncos have been winning tight games of late but, again, this is first NFL road game for a rookie QB and if we have another tight game on our hands I will take the now-rejuvenated veteran Russell Wilson over an NFL rookie making his first ever start every time. Look for Wilson and the Broncos to stay red hot. Cleveland might be out of gas off B2B tight, hard-fought late wins over divisional opponents. 10* DENVER (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - This line is currently as high as +2.5 as of about 6 hours before kickoff and I have been waiting but, of course can't wait too long, hoping we might even see +3 start to pop up. Either way, I don't think we'll even need the points. In my opinion, the Steelers are the worst 6-4 football team in the history of the NFL. They have been outgained in every single game this season. Yes, 10 straight games to start the season Pittsburgh has NEVER won the stats battle. It will catch up with them. They lost to the Browns in OT last week and now this week I expect them to lose to the Bengals. We get line value here with a nice home dog spot on Cincy because of Burrow being out. Don't be surprised if Browning plays well here. It is good he got some action last week and now he's been able to work with the first team offense and prepare all week for this game. He is ready and so is Cincinnati. This is a big game for them. The Steelers have revenge here as they suffered a home loss in the most recent meeting between these division rivals. However, Pittsburgh entered this season 1-6 ATS when playing with revenge and facing a team off a SU loss. The Bengals off tough B2B SU/ATS losses and will bounce back here. In fact, Cincinnati is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 7 times they have entered a game off B2B SU/ATS losses. 10* CINCINNATI +

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide (-) @ Auburn Tigers @ 3:30 ET - This line keeps dropping and is now down to a 13 as for about 7 hours before kickoff. The fact is the Crimson Tide are already locked into the SEC title game next week BUT there is no way they will come out flat in this rivalry game. Coach Nick Saban knows that coach Hugh Freeze has led his teams to a few wins over him in SEC action and no one else has won more than one over him. Not only that, Saban knows his team can not afford come out flat here and have an ugly performance and then expect to be at their best against Georgia next week. So the Tide will be well prepared and roll here as they have been rolling for quite some time now after a slow start this season. They are now 7-0 SU in SEC action on the season while the Tigers are 3-4 SU in SEC games and here is a huge key. The 3 wins for Auburn have come against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. Those 3 teams are a combined 2-21 in SEC action this season and are easily the 3 worst teams in the league. Now the Tigers face one of the leagues best and the Crimson Tide have won 4 straight games each by 14 or more points. This line dropping to 13 make this one particularly attractive. The Tigers off that ugly loss last week which completely deflated their confidence. Auburn got hammered by New Mexico State last week! The Tide will bring their A game and are firing on all cylinders right now and win by a multi-TD margin! Mismatch! 10* ALABAMA (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3 ET - This line is around a 20.5 as of 7 hours before kickoff. As long-time followers know, I do not normally lay big points. However, when the situation calls for it, I have no hesitation. This Colorado team is really bad. They are so weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball. So no matter how much talent you have at the skill positions, you struggle as a team. Now, even more concerning for the Buffaloes here is the most key skill position of them all (QB) is an issue heading into this one as Sanders got hurt in most recent game and may not be able to go here. Even if he is under center for this one, he will not be 100% and will be running for his life most of this game. The Utes come into this one angry off a bad loss at Arizona. Utah has lost 3 of 4 but the other two losses were to Oregon and Washington. Those are two very strong teams of course. Also, they did cover against the Huskies and, after the ugly loss to the Ducks, they responded as they so often do. They thrashed Arizona State 55 to 3! Now, after an ugly loss to the Wildcats, I am sure we will see a response here! The Utes are often so strong in the trenches and that is particularly true off a bad loss. Utah is known for toughening up and pounding teams after they themselves suffer a rare beatdown. Whittingham has coached the Utes for nearly two decades and he is the exact opposite of flashy Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders who is in his first year at Colorado and getting a baptism by fire in the Pac-12. The Buffaloes are 4-7 but could just as easily be 1-10 on the season. They get exposed again by a superior team and the Utes will not let up here. 10* UTAH UTES (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ Noon ET - Michigan has won the last two meetings but this was after many years of domination for Ohio State. The Buckeyes should resume their winning ways in this rivalry this season as this will be the game that the Wolverines being without coach Harbaugh is finally going to come back to bite them. These two teams are quite evenly matched and for me the key angle here is the revenge factor and the coaching factor. It is not often that Ohio State is a dog and, when they are in a range of +3.5 (the line here) to +7.5 it shows you they are playing a quality team but also means the situation is not such a disadvantage that they are a heavy dog. Sure enough the Buckeyes - this includes bowl games - have excelled in this situation of being a dog of more than a FG but less than 8 points. In other words, not a 2-possession line. They have actually gotten the upset on a number of occasions when priced between 3.5 and 7.5 as an underdog but the key is they are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times and no this is not ancient data. It is all since the 2014 season. I like the Buckeyes again in this spot as it makes sense this angle works as you have one of the best teams in the nation getting points. I respect Michigan but they have not looked as sharp past two games and again being without Harbaugh will hurt them as they now face a dominant team that has continued to roll here late in the season. Grab the points, 3.5, as of about 4 and 1/2 hours before kick-off. 10* OHIO STATE +

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - The Red Raiders are catching +14 here as of early game day morning. This is a big rivalry. These schools definitely do like each other. Even though Texas has revenge and should find a way to win this, I feel the line is far too big. The Red Raiders clinched bowl eligibility last week so you might think they would be flat here. On the contrary though, I feel this will allow Texas Tech to play loose and relaxed and confident here and that makes for a dangerous underdog. The Red Raiders would love nothing more than to prevent Texas from getting to the Big 12 Championship. The Longhorns lost to Oklahoma earlier this season so an OU win, Okla St win and Texas loss would leave Horns out of the picture. I am not saying an upset happens here but I am saying all the pressure is on UT. The Horns are 5-1 SU last 6 games but only one of those wins was by more than 10 points. Also, the Red Raiders are 5-2 SU last 7 games and on a 3-game winning streak SU and their first 3 losses this season were by 8 or less points. They only have 1 loss (17 points) by more than a 13-point margin this entire season. Given all these numbers, a 2-touchdown line here is substantial. Grab the big points. 10* TEXAS TECH (+)

CFB Friday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) at Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET in Detroit - This is a neutral site venue but of course if favors the Spartans as the game is at Ford Field in Detroit. However, the fact the Nittany Lions are traveling actually is good news for their backers. Penn State lost on the road at Ohio State (as usual) this season but their other 3 road games have all been wins and by a combined score of 122-41. The Nittany Lions only two losses this season are to the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. They are just not quite at the level of OSU or Michigan just yet but they are close. Michigan State is not and that is why this is a play for me even with the Nittany Lions a 22-point road favorite as of early game day morning. The Spartans are a mess with the in-season coaching change and player departures and player injuries. Yes they snuck by Indiana last week but they lost by a combined 87 to 3 to Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions are not far from the level of those two teams as I noted above. That said, the average margin of those two Michigan State defeats was 42 points and we only need to win this by about half that. Penn State is going for a New Year's Day bowl so they will still be focused here. With no concerns about a Big Ten Championship they can play loose and relaxed here and I expect their season-long trend of pounding the bad teams (especially away from home) to continue here with a win by at least a 4 TD margin! 10* PENN STATE (-)

NFL Friday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 3 ET - We are getting 9.5 points in this one as of early game day morning. Home field matters in this one. I know the Dolphins are off a home game they should have covered (but were done in by turnovers) and that the Jets have struggled badly on offense of late. However, this New York team at home already beat the Eagles and Bills here and 2 of their 3 losses were by 6 or less points. Now look at what the Dolphins have done away from Miami and also keep in mind that, though not too cold, it will be chilly and windy for this game in New York. Note that the Dolphins are just 2-3 SU in games played away from Miami and both victories were by 7 or less points. This is a divisional game and the Jets have a respectable defense that will be amped up for this one. I expect this one, like so many Jets home games this season, to be decided by a slim one-score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS (+) 

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - NO...your eyes are NOT deceiving you. The actual posted number on this FULL GAME total is down to 24.5 points as of about 7 hours before kickoff. This is the lowest posted total in CFB history! Of course it is because Iowa continues to trend under and their offense is lousy but they have a fantastic defense. Also, they are matched up with a Cornhuskers team that has also been playing great defense but struggles on offense. Nebraska has a solid ground attack but they struggle through the air. The key to this over play however is situational. The Huskers need a win to be bowl eligible. This is one of those games where Nebraska is going to have to get creative on offense and make some things happen. There will be some risk taking even if it involves some crazily designed running plays. But the fact is the Iowa defense may not be at its best here either. That's because this Hawkeyes team has already punched its ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game. How can they be fully focused here when they know that is on deck and this game really does not mean much to them. Sure, Iowa still wants to win and I expect them to have some success on offense here and it won't take much to get this over the total. Keep in mind, if each team gets to just 12 points we can not lose this game because someone will score in OT. We just need 12-12. So now take a look and note that Nebraska has scored at least 14 points in 8 of last 10 games. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 15 points in 8 of 11 games this season. Yes this will be a tight game and not a lot of scoring but I can't foresee anything less than 27 points in this one. Look for at least a 14-13 type grinder here at the very least. The Hawkeyes may look a little different this week since their Big Ten Championship Game spot is locked up and Huskers are desperate and will push hard here. Will make for some interesting dynamics here because each team known for conservative play and defense but both are in a situation where you throw caution to the wind. They will each be willing to take risk here. 10* OVER the total in Nebraska

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - This total is in the 44 range as of early gameday morning and this is a big battle for 1st place in the NFC West division. The big story leading into this one has been the health of Seahawks QB Geno Smith and, now that he is expected to play, this total is even ticking up a bit. I feel we have huge value with the under in this one. The Seahawks are facing a very tough defense and the last thing that Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll wants to do here is to get into a shootout with the Niners. San Francisco has the much better offense in this match-up. I know the Seattle defense has not been great but they are at home and this is a huge game and the defense is known for stepping at home in primetime key games like this through the years. I sense a raucous atmosphere for this one and the Seahawks to bring it with a huge effort on D here. The Niners have been better since the bye week and I love their defense but lets not forget that San Francisco had produced only 17 points in each of three games before the bye week. The Seahawks have scored an average of just 17.5 points last 6 games. I see some value in this total in the mid-40s. The 49ers have allowed an average of only 14.8 points in their 5 road games this season. But I look for this to be a game management type of game from both sides. The Niners are on the road in a loud venue and want to lean on their defense and a strong ground game. The Seahawks also are likely to be conservative here as they face a top defense and also are well aware of the recent results from SF QB Purdy. Yes this is a playoff revenge game for the Seahawks but they will have their hands full. Look for a hard-fought game here and I am projecting a 21-14 final based on all of the above. That means we have some wiggle room for sure with this big total. 10* UNDER the total in Seattle

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - Too many points. This line around 10 or 10.5 as of gameday morning. Yes, it was only Southern Miss whom they most recently faced but the Bulldogs got a couple key guys back and looked like a much better team and rolled to an easy win. They now will have a much tougher match-up with this Ole Miss team here. However, this is a rivalry game and Mississippi State is at home and the points are just too much. I am happy to challenge the Rebels to cover this double digit spread. The fact Ole Miss has a 9-2 SU record and Mississippi State is a horrible 3-8 ATS this season is keeping this rivalry game line higher than it should be. Other than one bad game their last 5, the Bulldogs allowed just 18.5 ppg in the other 4 games. The Rebels have faced some tough road match-ups this season but losses away to Georgia and Alabama and only getting by Auburn by 7 points means we have some value here with the big points. Ole Miss is not exactly sky-high with confidence on the road and they did lose to the Bulldogs last season. Also, the home team is on an 0-8 ATS run in this series but sometimes a simple trend like that gets over-played and over-valued. That seems to be the case here. Too many points and note that Ole Miss, despite two ATS wins this season, has still covered just 6 of the last 32 times they have been a road favorite of less than 16 points. Also, the Bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. I know the home team has that 0-8 ATS run but I am happy to put it to the test here...in contrarian fashion...home team it is! Grab the big points. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE (+) 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - If you look at the two big home favorites on Thanksgiving Day, the Lions were at home last week too while the Cowboys were on the road. I am not involved with the early game today but, the point is, we are getting bigger points with this match-up when Dallas is definitely in the tougher scheduling situation in comparison with Detroit. The Cowboys were back east in Carolina last week, then traveled back for this Thursday game and they now have a tougher match-up on deck with the Seahawks next THURSDAY too! In fact the Cowboys have a very tough schedule remaining with Seattle, Philly, Buffalo, Detroit and Miami remaining. They have home and away games against the Commanders but the 5 match-ups in between are brutal. I believe Dallas could get caught looking ahead a bit here. Tough spot for Dallas to be such a large favorite. The Commanders are getting nearly two full touchdowns - early game day morning line is 13.5 - and this is a rivalry game. I feel we are getting some extra value here because everyone just saw Washington lose to the Giants but they had an insane 6-0 turnover deficit in that game. They'll clean things up here. Also there is a unique system edge here. The Commanders are a perfect 8-0 ATS when they are coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin and they are facing a divisional opponent that has revenge against them and is entering the contest off B2B SU wins! The Cowboys lost regular season finale at Washington last year and enter this game on a winning streak so the system fits perfectly after Commanders got blasted last week in a fluke final against the Giants that was turnover-driven. 10* WASHINGTON + points

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Buffalo Bulls @ 7:30 ET - The Bulls started having weekday games on Halloween and then through this month of November. Not only did they lose all 3 SU they also lost all 3 ATS! But now we are not just talking about a short-term streak either. This brings the run for Buffalo to 0-9 ATS in their last 9 weekday games! Indeed, the Bulls are better served to stick to Saturday CFB but, of course, they have no say in the matter as it pertains to their season finale here on Tuesday. That said, I love the points here with Eastern Michigan. The Eagles need one more win for a .500 season and to secure bowl eligibility. Yes the teams they have beaten in the MAC are having tough seasons but the same holds true for Buffalo. Eastern Michigan is 3-2 SU this season against MAC teams that currently have a losing record in conference games on the season. One of those two losses was by just 3 points and here we are getting 5.5 points with the Eagles! Rallying for the win against Akron last week as they prevailed in double-OT, the Eagles have some extra confidence heading into this one. Eastern Michigan is 9-2 ATS in weekday road games when they are an underdog and I expect the Eagles, even if they fall short of the SU win, to get at least the ATS cover. This one in a 9-0 ATS play-against Buffalo situation as noted above and I look for the trend to reach 10 in a row ATS here! This is also a revenge game for the Eagles as they allowed 50 points in a home loss to Buffalo last season. They have not forgotten! It is the only time since 2016 that the Eagles have allowed 50 or more points in a regular season game. Payback here! 10* EASTERN MICHIGAN (+) points

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - This line is currently +3 in some spots as of early game day morning and we will jump on that as I am not sure it will last. There is a lot of +2.5 out there as well. The line is actually a key to my play here. In fact, this will not be the normal write-up you typically see from me. I am sure all of you know plenty about the Eagles and Chiefs and the current situation with each. I am going to talk to you purely about the betting angle with this one as that is the key. How in the world are the Chiefs favored by just 2.5 or 3 points against a team that everyone - save for people from Philly, maybe - would say is better than the Eagles? This is not a neutral site game like the Super Bowl was! This is a night game at Arrowhead and this line is basically telling you that the Eagles are at least as good if not better than the Chiefs. But the betting markets have a general idea of the knowledge that Philly, in between these two most recent years of going to the Super Bowl, had a combined regular season record of 31-33-1 in the 4 seasons from 2018 to 2021. How in the world is this line a -2.5 or -3 for KC when the Chiefs have gone 50-15 over those same 4 seasons? The point is both teams are off great seasons in 2022 and met in the Super Bowl just 9 months ago and both are having great seasons this year, but the Chiefs are the much more consistent team getting it done for many years! Kansas City, as you all know, just won the Super Bowl over this same team on a neutral field! So why is this revenge game for the Eagles priced this way? Someone knows something...and we do too! Based on this VERY interesting betting market for this one and my own interpretation of this match-up, I expect the Eagles will win outright but I am happy to grab the value of taking the points with the field goal available here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - The Broncos have won 3 straight games and it is amazing what confidence can do for a team. So playing at home on Sunday Night Football I do expect another decent performance here and they'll move the ball on this Vikings team. With each win they notch on their belt this Broncos team is starting to believe they can get the job done and win the games with a decent ground game helping to open things up for the passing game to get going again. The Vikings will also move the ball well here as Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise at QB and Minnesota is also hot with 5 straight wins! So you have two teams squaring off here that are each growing with confidence week by week. I know we have seen a huge under trend in NFL primetime games this season but don't be surprised if Thursday's OVER in Baltimore is a sign of things to come. These trends have a way of reversing in the middle portion of the season and this total down around a 41 is just too low of a range in my opinion. Another thing you get with these season-long trends is an eventual overadjustment of the numbers. The Vikings are averaging 24.6 ppg in their 5-game winning streak. They also are, ironically, averaging 24.6 ppg in their 5 road games this season. Denver has scored at least 19 points in 7 of last 8 games and has averaged 22.3 points in their 3-game winning streak. This one gets into the 40s! 10* OVER the total in Denver 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - The dominant line on this one as of about 7 hours before kickoff is a 7.5 but I am not going to let the line being above 7 keep me away from this fantastic spot. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo and the Bills are also coming off their first true home loss (also lost in London, UK) as they fell short against the Broncos Monday. So they have revenge against the Jets from a season opening loss at New York plus they are angry off B2B losses including their first loss in Orchard Park this season. The Jets were a small favorite at Las Vegas and lost outright to the Raiders. Note that the Jets are a long-term 0-11 ATS when they are coming off a game against a non-divisional AFC opponent in which they were favored but lost outright. The Bills are off B2B losses for the first time this season and it has only happened 3 times the past 3 seasons. Each of those 3 times they won their next game by at least an 8 point margin every single time. I know Buffalo has disappointed this season but this is still the stronger team in comparison with the Jets and now they are coming off a home loss as well plus playing with revenge plus we are testing a a play-against angle with the Jets that is 11-0 the last 11. I like our chances for a dozen straight here as the Bills have a fire lit under them for this game! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -1.5 / -2.5 / or money line -130 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - As you can see from the lines shown here, this one offers a number of options of how to play it as of about 5 hours before kickoff Sunday. What we know here is that the Browns will be without QB Watson and of course RB Chubb has been out since early this season. In fact, that was the first match-up with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. This will be revenge payback here. The Steelers are the worst 6-3 NFL team in recent memory. They have been OUTGAINED every single week this season yet they somehow have miraculously won 6 of 9 games. The nonsense stops here. I know the Browns are off the emotional last-second win over the Ravens last week but this game is huge too. Cleveland will not come out flat here as this game is just too important. They have still been strong on the ground this season even without Chubb. Also, the Browns have a solid rookie option at QB and at least his first start comes at home and against a weak defense. Yes, the Steelers statistically bad against the pass and the run. They also are bad statistically on offense. They have won games with "smoke and mirrors" a lot this season. But now we get line value with the stronger team on their home field and we get that line value because of Watson being out. The Browns are still the better team here and they have revenge on their minds after not only losing Chubb but also losing to the Steelers in that game earlier this season. Cleveland lost that game despite a huge yardage edge. This will be payback! 10* CLEVELAND (-) 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in South Carolina Gamecocks vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7:30 ET - This is a great set-up for big points and this total at 52 should prove to be far too low! South Carolina is off a huge 47 to 6 win but that performance for the defense will absolutely prove to be an aberration. The Gamecocks entered that game having allowed 31 points per game this season! The offense has been looking strong with big performances at home all season long! South Carolina will continue to roll here on offense as the Wildcats defense certainly took a step back this season. The Cats had a recent huge performance in which they allowed only 3 points but in their other 4 games since early October they have allowed an average of 43 points per game! I know the UK offense struggled recently but you must consider the opposition they faced in the lower-scoring efforts. Kentucky has a solid ground game and a respectable QB, just like South Carolina, and here they are going up against a weaker defense which will allow them to get going again on offense here. This one should feature plenty of scoring given the recent struggles of both defenses. South Carolina scores so well at home and UK averaged 27 ppg on the road this season even though one of those games was at Georgia. This total is a bargain in a game in which I expect both teams to push into the 30s. The over is 6-1 in the Wildcats last 7 games and the over is 4-1 in the Gamecocks home games! The high-scoring trends continue here. 10* OVER the total in South Carolina

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Houston Cougars @ 4 ET - This line is a around a 6 or 6.5 and is offering excellent value on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State just got crushed by Central Florida. This was after their big game with Oklahoma. The Cowboys won that game over the Sooners and they historically struggle ATS after facing OU and particularly it makes sense for them to struggle when they have upset Oklahoma like they just did. Keep in mind, that was a 5th straight win for the Cowboys and they were hot. Now, after a very ugly loss to the Golden Knights, I feel certain that OSU is going to bounce back strong here. The Cowboys are the much stronger team on offense and I know their defense is going to come to play after that ugly loss to UCF. As for the Cougars, they have lost 6 of 9 games. Also, two of the only three wins that Houston has in that action was over two teams that now have a combined 5-15 record this season. The Cougars now are facing an angry OSU team that was 7-2 this season and 5-1 in Big 12 games before the embarrassing loss to UCF! I know we are laying points on the road here which is not my favorite thing to do but really there is a decided edge here with the Cowboys. They have been the stronger team all season long and definitely are the much better team on offense and the motivation factor is huge. The Cougars, by the way, just lost to a Cincinnati team that has been dreadful this season. The Bearcats were 0-6 in Big 12 and having a horrible season. Houston struggles again in this one and the Cowboys should roll by much more than a TD. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - This total is around a 40 or 40.5 as of about 5 hours before kickoff. The Nittany Lions are off that loss to Michigan as they again lost to the Wolverines and Ohio State as they seemingly do every meeting. However, this one got the offensive coordinator fired. Now I am well aware that Rutgers has a solid defense but this Penn State team is angry, fully focused on a strong performance on offense in this one, and the weather looks good for this one in State College today. That said, the Nittany Lions will be relentless and aggressive on offense. They are 8-2 this season and lets talk about their average points in the 8 wins because, of course, as a 20 point favorite here PSU is expected to win this one as well. The Nittany Lions have averaged scoring 44 points per game in their 8 wins! As for Rutgers, they have a solid ground game on offense and they had averaged 25 ppg in their 3 games prior to the shutout loss against Iowa last week. Those 3 games included facing Ohio State by the way. That said, 44-25 is near the 20-point line on this game. Now, I am certainly not saying that is where this one ends up but you see the logic in arriving at that scoreline and even if shave double digits off each side of that, it puts this final at a reasonable 34-14 and that is more than a TD above the current total on this game. We have solid line value here the way I see it and I truly expect a relentless and dominant effort from the PSU offense here. 10* OVER the total in Penn State

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 10:30 ET - I know the Cougars have their annual rivalry game on deck with Washington but this week's game versus Colorado is the home finale for Washington State. Not only that, the Buffaloes need 2 more wins for bowl eligibility and you can bet (literally) that there is some extra motivation here for the Cougars to make sure flashy Deion Sanders and Company miss out on bowl season. No one in the Pac-12 liked all the attention showered upon the Buffaloes this season and that is a big part of the reason that Colorado is now 1-6 in conference games this season. Now, granted, the Cougars have also had a dreadful season but they can at least get some measure of satisfaction from this season with a win here. The Cougars also are 9-1 ATS when they are a home favorite by a single digit margin of points and hosting a team that is off at least two straight losses! That system fits the bill here with the Cougars a 4-point favorite in this one and the Buffaloes entering this one having lost 4 straight and also 6 of their last 7 since their "smoke screen" 3-0 start to the season. By the way, the Cougars are 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings with Colorado and also 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they have hosted the Buffaloes. A home finale loss for Colorado is how the Buffs enter this one after their disappointing OT loss last week. Now this is their first B2B road game situation with next week's season finale also on the road. Note that Buffaloes are on a 1-7 ATS run when they are playing the first of B2B road games. They could be flat here too after losing a crucial home game last week. Just like everyone else gunning for the Buffs this season, the Cougars will be highly motivated here despite their disappointing record and I expect a huge home finale win as they take each of the aforementioned perfect ATS runs to 4-0 apiece! 10* WASHINGTON STATE (-) points

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Current total in the 46 range as of early morning Thursday. The weather will be perfect in Baltimore for this one. Also, the Bengals are facing an angry Ravens team off a home loss in which they blew the game against the Browns. Note that Cincinnati games are 13-3 to the over in divisional action when the divisional foe they are facing is off a home loss. Also, Bengals divisional road games are 10-2 to the over when the divisional foe they are facing is coming off a home game. In terms of current statistical edges here, I like the fact that Baltimore has averaged scoring 31 points in last 5 games. Also, the Ravens have allowed more than 30 points twice in last three games. The Bengals also off a high-scoring loss and have scored 27 points per game in last 5 games. We should see plenty of points here as Cincinnati is allowing an average of 22 points in their road games this season and they gave up huge yardage in the loss to the Texans last week. The Ravens pile up rushing yardage and the Bengals defense is bad overall including against the run. Cincinnati can score well here however as their passing attack has been piling up yardage under Burrow on a consistent basis for many weeks now.  10* OVER the total in Baltimore

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - Current line is a -3 as of early gameday morning. The last 3 times that the Panthers were at home and on a losing streak of 3 or more games and facing an unranked foe, they have gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS! Also, that streak does not include - Louisville was a ranked opponent - their big home win earlier this season when they snapped a 4-game losing streak by winning big over the Cardinals at home here in Pittsburgh. You can tell by this line that there is more than meets the eye with this match-up. The 6-4 Eagles are a 3-point dog against a 2-8 Panthers team...how can that be? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. The Panthers were done in by turnovers last week against Syracuse at Yankee Stadium but now they are back home where they have been solid in recent games and I am looking for a very strong effort from them in what is their last home game of the season. The Panthers will make it count and they will get revenge for losing the most recent meeting with Boston College by a single point in 2020. Under Pat Narduzzi, that is the only season in the past 5 that the Panthers did not play in a bowl game and now this season is the same but they can at least finish the home portion of their season schedule with a big weeknight win and make the most of this primetime opportunity with the spotlight in College Football only on Pittsburgh tonight as this is the lone game going in CFB. With the Panthers entering this one on a 4-game losing streak, look for the aforementioned "back to winning at home" streak to reach a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS! 10* Pittsburgh - points

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio University Bobcats vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 7 ET - Important game for both teams and I know that Ohio U is certainly known for defense. However, Central Michigan is off B2B high scoring games and both piled up and allowed a lot of yardage in each of those games. They will force the issue here and the weather will be very good by Ohio standards for this time of year. Not only that, this total is a solid 46.5 as of early game day morning and each of the last 4 meetings between these teams have tallied 47 or more points so the value is with the over here as I look for that high-scoring trend to reach 5 games in a row. Ohio U, as noted above, is known for defense. However, overall the Bobcats are one of the top teams in the conference and they will take advantage of facing the porous defense of the Chippewas in this one. Of course they are favored by double digits for a reason and are at home. But I am sure the Chips are going to give them plenty of trouble when they have the ball in this one and it should fly over the total as a result. The Bobcats are off a 20-10 road win but, prior to this, did allow 22 points per game over their 4 prior games and 3 of those 4 were at home. That would put this game at a 33-22 final based on the current ATS spread in this one and I feel we have strong value here in a game that I am projecting to get into the 50s. The last two games for Central Michigan have each topped the 65 point mark. Look for that trend note above to reach 5 in a row in this series. 10* OVER the total in Ohio University

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Both teams are 4-6 on the season and trying to keep bowl hopes alive with each having one game remaining after this one and, of course, needing to get to 6 wins. That said, I like the momentum factor here and feel the Broncos are undervalued. The Huskies are off B2B losses and the Broncos are off B2B wins. So, entering this game, you have one team surging and one fading and plus Northern Illinois was favored in both of those games they just lost, once favored by nearly a TD and then once favored by nearly 10 points. Overall, the Huskies are on an 0-3 ATS run. The Broncos have covered 3 straight and 6 of last 7. Western Michigan is 14-2 ATS the last 16 times they have been a MAC dog of more than 3 points! Last season the Broncos faced the Huskies late in season as well and that 24-21 loss on a Northern Illinois TD with under a minute to go ultimately cost the Broncos a 6-6 season. They would go on to win their two games after that and finish the season 5-7. This season is shaping up for a different finish the way things are going for each of these teams right now. Look for the surging road dog to grab the cash again in this one and truly I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points as added insurance. Currently this line is a 5 as of early gameday morning. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN + points