NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -7 vs Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - Denver enters this game off B2B wins and they are an underdog in both. However, getting B2B wins like that as a dog is rare for the Broncos. In fact, they are now just 1-9 ATS when they enter a game off a SU win as an underdog. Also, they are just 1-8 ATS when off B2B SU/ATS wins and facing a team with a winning record. That is the case here and I know the Bills have underachieved this season and sit with just a 5-4 record. However, they are more than capable of stepping up big, particularly at home. I know the Broncos just shocked KC but the Chiefs turned the ball over 5 times in the game and were coming off a big win over the Chargers, and they had a huge trip to Europe on deck. That said, it is no wonder Denver got the shocking win and Kansas City turned the ball over like crazy. The Broncos other two wins were against teams having very bad seasons. That said, I love Buffalo at a very fair price here. The line is saying Buffalo would be only -4 on a neutral site and even though they have struggled, I still do not buy the argument that the Bills are only 4 points better than the Broncos on a neutral field...no way! I also like the fact that the Bills are off loss at Cincy and lost the turnover battle 2-0 in this one. I know Denver off a bye week but they are coming in fat and happy and this Buffalo team is angry. Also, Buffalo is 3-0 SU when off a loss this season and is yet to lose B2B games. What about the cover though? Well I love the fact this line is a 7 and want to note too that the Bills are now 7-0 ATS L7 times when favored over an AFC West foe. Look for that run of ATS success to reach 8-0 ATS in this one as everything is set up perfectly! 10* BUFFALO -7

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets Pick -115 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Raiders are off a 30-6 win over a bad Giants team but the yardage was nearly equal in the game too! The Jets are off a 27-6 loss to the Chargers but they had 3 turnovers in the game and actually outgained LA by nearly 100 yards! That is why we have line value here with a respectable Jets team against a bad Raiders team. Last week's craze results are giving the Raiders more respect from the betting markets than they deserve. This Las Vegas team is still a mess and the Jets had been playing better prior to 3 fumbles proving to be their undoing last week. LV had lost 5 of 7 games prior to the win last week. The Jets had won 3 straight prior to their loss last week. The Jets have the better defense and have the better rushing attack on offense which will be able to exploit the Raiders weakness on D which is the rushing defense. Grab the road team as the Jets Wilson bounces back after the fumble problems last week. He has been better overall since his rough start to the season and has not been throwing picks like he did early on. I like the value with the road team at a great value here. The line is in the pick'em range in the -110 or -115 range. 10* NEW YORK JETS Pick -115

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play LA Chargers (+) vs Detroit Lions @ 4 ET - The Lions are 6-2 this season and have 5 wins by more than 1 point. The combined record of those 5 teams is 14-28. None of the 5 teams have a winning record this season. Now, I am certainly not saying the Chargers are a great team but they are not the ones laying 3 points here nor are they the ones who are the road for this game either. I like the home dog value here with a Chargers team that is 4-2 SU L6 games and who only has 1 loss by more than 3 points this entire season. LA is seemingly always involved in tight games when they do lose. This season they are 2-1 against NFC opponents and the lone loss was by 3 points. In fact, if you look at the last 7 times they were a dog of 2+ points against NFC opponents, they have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS! This non-conference match-up falls into that category (they were only +1.5 versus Cowboys) and I look for this trend to reach 8-0 ATS as the Lions come off the bye "fat and happy" and so often teams that were rolling and then had a bye can come out flat the very next game. When that game is also on the road and facing a non-conference foe, the odds of having that "flat game" are even stronger! Look for the Chargers, though on a short week and coming back from Monday night game at New York in a win over the Jets, to come out strong here. LA is only 2-2 SU at home this season but the two wins were by a combined 24 points while the two losses were by a combined 5 points! 10* LA Chargers +

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Line as of ultra early Sunday morning is 3.5 points. Statistically when you look at the Steelers you would think you are looking at a 3-5 team (at best!) rather than a 5-3 team. No team in the NFL has won more games with "smoke and mirrors" than this over-rated Pittsburgh bunch. That said, even though I am not crazy about this Packers team, Green Bay certainly has the much better defense in this match-up. I like taking defensive dogs against over-rated home favorites. Also, note that GB is only 1-3 SU on the road but the 3 losses were by an average margin of 2 points per game! The Packers are off a 20-3 win over the Rams last week. Under coach Matt LaFleur, GB is 6-0 ATS when they are installed as an underdog when entering that game off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Steelers have the rival Browns on deck and the last 5 times in the game prior to facing the Browns, Pittsburgh has either lost the game outright or won it by 3 points or less all 5 times. In other words, at +3.5 here, we are dealing with a 5-0 ATS situation for playing against the Steelers in addition to the 6-0 ATS situation in favor of playing on the Packers. Give me the points here! 10* GREEN BAY +

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - This total has risen to 55 as of early gameday morning. Texas gets QB Ewers back for this one. However, TCU picked up big yardage through the air last week in a loss at Texas Tech. Now, back at home, the Horned Frogs also might cut down on some of the turnovers and I like the fact this Longhorns defense has not been as impressive of late. TCU has not been nearly as strong this season but they are still more than capable of stepping up here in a rivalry game and playing on their home turf. The Frogs will be ready to go in this one but their defense is not nearly as strong this season as they have been in the past. That said, the Longhorns have a strong running game which will open up the passing game and you know that Ewers can't wait to be unleashed in this contest after missing the last two. Also, UT has revenge from losing last season's game at Austin 17-10 so they will not hesitate to pile up points here. Weather looks good for this one too. Remember that Texas has scored at least 30 points in all 9 of their games this season! Also, the Longhorns have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of last 4 games. On the season, UT has allowed at least 24 points in 3 of 4 games played away from Austin. With this line around -13, that would put this game at 37-24 which gets us into the 60s. The Horned Frogs are averaging 36 points at home this season but also have given up 38 ppg their last 2 games and this will be one of the toughest tests their defense faces this season. 10* OVER the total in TCU

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 3:30 ET - The Utes are getting as many as 9 points in this one as of early gameday morning. This is a lot of value here because, even though Utah has a recent history of SU losses to the Huskies, they actually have covered 4 in a row ATS at Washington. Even though the Huskies coach is a newer head coach to the program, Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham has been with the program for two decades! He and the Utes want revenge here as they lost the most recent meeting here SU at Washington. Also, the last two meetings between these teams in Utah were both Huskies SU wins. Whittingham, as per usual, will have his guys ready here and he wants revenge. He would love nothing more than to knock off the unbeaten Huskies here. I know Washington is 9-0 but, other than the tight win over Oregon (which certainly is impressive don't get me wrong), the Huskies have faced a rather weak schedule. Also, their defensive rankings (the important one based on yardage allowed not points) shows this is overall a very weak defense. They are coming off a shootout win versus USC but they are in trouble now against a much tougher defense. This Utes defense is tough and the Utah offense also got a huge boost in morale with the blowout win versus Arizona State last week. That said, this game is going to be a much tighter battle than many are expecting and I would not be surprised to see an upset win here but am happy to grab the security of the generous points on offer for this one! Utah is 14-3 ATS last 17 as a road dog and they also are poised to make it 5 in a row ATS in games at Washington. The Utes are out for revenge here and bring an "A game" effort and I like having the much better defense on my side getting points here! Also, could be windy conditions here for this one which helps the defensive-minded big dog. 10* UTAH (+) points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State (+) vs Michigan @ Noon ET - Line as of early gameday morning is 4.5 and I like the dog plenty in this one! Every year when Penn State is facing Michigan or Ohio State it seems to be a loss. I know the Nittany Lions already lost to the Buckeyes this season (we were on Ohio St there) but this year PSU is likely to take down the Wolverines the way I see it. First off, this game is at Penn State. Secondly, the Wolverines are dealing with a huge mess with the alleged sign-stealing scheme that has coach Harbaugh in hot water. In fact, Harbaugh likely serving a 3-game suspension beginning with this game. I know he was still coaching the team during the week and I know some will look at this and say the Wolverines are going to rally for the coach, etc. But this is different than rallying for an injured player or a coach missing a game due to illness. This is alleged cheating and it is not a good look. How does a team get fired up about that? The way I see this game, Penn State has one of its strongest teams in recent years and though they lost at Ohio State, they actually played the Buckeyes even tougher than the final score shows. This one is different than that game because the Nittany Lions are home for this one plus I don't think Michigan is as strong as Ohio State. Note that the Wolverines have proven to be a bit over-rated by the betting markets as they have only covered 4 of their 9 games this season. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, have only 2 ATS losses and those were the aforementioned hard-fought loss versus Ohio State followed by, as expected, struggling to get by Indiana the next week after the huge game with the Buckeyes the prior week. So, in my mind, the Nittany Lions are a little under-valued in the marketplace for this game when you look at their ATS results on the season and you know PSU is very hungry for this game. Penn State is tired of always losing the big games with Ohio State and Michigan and they looked more ready than ever (in that loss to the Buckeyes) to put this streak to rest. They battle hard here and have a great shot at the outright upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. 10* PENN STATE (+) points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) @ UNLV Rebels @ 10:45 ET - UNLV getting a lot of attention here because they have the better record and are at home. However, Wyoming has played the much tougher schedule. Also, the Cowboys are known for being a tough dog. This is part of the reason they are a solid 8-1 ATS when they are an underdog against a team that is playing with revenge. The Rebels are conference foes but these teams have not met the past two seasons but in the most recent meeting UNLV got destroyed right here in Vegas so they are well aware of this and will be looking to give a much better effort. However, the Cowboys have that great ATS record in this spot plus the Rebels are 1-7 ATS when they are at home and off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. So we are testing angles here that are a combined 15-2 ATS and I like the strength of schedule variance here and feel the Rebels get a wake-up call with the known physicality of these Cowboys giving them a reality check here. UNLV is much improved but they will struggle just to defeat (let alone cover against) this tough Cowboys team! 10* WYOMING (+)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:15 ET - Current total on this one is 38.5 as of early game day morning. The big story here is the quarterbacks as a pair of rookies are matched up and they are both off tough outings. Also, the under trend has been big this season and particularly in primetime action. However, we are at the midway point of the season, these trends tend to always flip at some point and especially when the adjustments start to become too much. That is the case here. This total is down to 38.5 and I am going to focus on the quarterbacks. Yes, Bryce Young is off a very tough game but it came against the Colts. Sure he made a couple of bad decisions but you know why this game was particularly tough on him before it even started? The Colts likely knew what was coming. Frank Reich is the head coach of the Panthers but he was head coach at Indianapolis each of the last 4 years leading into this one! His background is offensive coordinator. Trust me when I tell you that the Colts had an idea of what to expect facing a Reich-led team that also has a rookie QB. That said, back to looking at Young and note that he had a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his last 5 games before that disaster. Also, he had averaged 226 passing yards in the 4 games before that tough start. His counterpart here is an undrafted rookie by the name of Tyson Bagent. This guy has great mobility and ran for 70 yards last week and can make solid plays out of the pocket. Bagent made some mistakes last week too but now he is back in Chicago for a home start and he has fared well here so far and will be better now after two rough road outings that threw him into the fire. Bagent comes up big here and so does Young and we do not need a whole helluva lot to get this game into the 40s and it looks like nice weather in Chicago for this one too! Carolina is allowing an average of 36 points per game on the road this season! The Bears are allowing 27 points per game on the season. Also, the over is 100% this season and, dating back to last season, 4-0 L4 in Panthers road games against non-divisional opponents! The over is also 100% this season and, dating back to last season, 3-0 L3 in Bears home games against non-divisional opponents! Testing the 100% PERFECT trends here! 10* OVER the total in Chicago

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ 7:30 ET - This line is currently 9.5 or 10 as of early game day morning but don't hesitate to lay the big points here! ULL is off a loss and Southern Miss is off a win and this is a great set up. The Golden Eagles just beat an FBS school for the very first time this season. Southern Miss had opened up the season with a win over an FCS school but this was followed by going 0-7 SU against FBS schools prior to last week's surprising win. The Golden Eagles are just not a very good football team and now they are on the road facing a Ragin' Cajuns team that still needs one more win for bowl eligibility. Not only that, ULL has a tough trip to Troy on deck so they know they want to be sure and lock things up this week and not leave things up to chance for when they face UL Monroe in their regular season finale. ULL also has plenty of motivation here as they lost last season's match-up at Southern Miss despite having a yardage edge of 100 as they were done in by turnovers. Louisiana is now in the 2nd year under coach Desormeaux and I expect continued improvement through the end of the season as the Ragin' Cajuns had gone 34-5 the last 3 seasons before last year's disappointing campaign. Look for a 7-5 regular season finish after last year's 6-7 (including bowl loss). Here UL - Lafayette bounces back off a loss and hammers a Southern Miss team that is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Golden Eagles most recent weekday road game saw them lose 55 to 3 at South Alabama! Southern Mississippi has allowed 53 points per game on the road this season! Louisiana just beat that same S. Ala team 33-20 a few weeks ago as a double digit dog. This is a great situation for the home favorite as you can see and, though I am not normally fond of laying big numbers, the situational value here speaks for itself! 10* UL Lafayette (-)

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toledo Rockets vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles are coming off a bye week and will be ready to go. Their overall numbers on offense this season are not impressive but note they have scored at least 21 points in 4 of last 5 games and averaged 24 points in those 4 games. The Rockets are favored by nearly 20 points here with good reason of course and their offense should pile up points here. Eastern Michigan just allowed 45 points to Western Michigan and now face an even tougher test with the Rockets! Toledo has scored an average of 34 points in their 3 MAC home games and they are a very solid offense that will be tough on the Eagles here. Each of the last 5 meetings have totaled more than 50 points and that is a trend I expect to reach 6 in a row here! With this total at 46 or 46.5 as of early gameday morning, we are ready to invest on this one. 10* OVER the total in Toledo

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan (-) vs Central Michigan @ 7 ET - I love this spot because the line at -3 suggests these teams would be equal on a neutral field. That is what the average bettor sees and the fact is Central Michigan is 5-4 and Western Michigan is 3-6 so how are these teams equal? Major value on the Chippewas here, right? Actually I love this play on the Broncos here and keep in mind that Western Michigan is favored by 3 even though this series has been dominated by the road team in recent years. That also says something here because the odds makers are sharp and they are inviting Chippewas money here. My money is on the same side as the books and, that is, it is on the Broncos here! One final comment before my biggest key here is that this is a big game for each team because it is a rivalry and because each team already beat Eastern Michigan. So the winner of this one wins the "Victory Cannon" for this year in the battle among these trio of MAC teams from Michigan. This game also carries extra importance for the Broncos because they need 3 more wins for bowl eligibility. A bowl may seem out of the question when you are sitting at 3-6 on the campaign but therein lies the biggest key of all here. The Broncos have faced a very tough schedule so far and that is why their record is so bad. They are much better than their record shows. Their 3 MAC losses were to Ohio U, Miami (OH) and Toledo. Those 3 teams are a combined 21-6 this season and are considered the best teams in the MAC. As for Central Michigan, they do not have to face Miami (OH) and their final two games of the season are against Ohio U and Toledo! The point is the Chips have not been battle tested in the MAC like the Broncos have so far this season! Also, the 3 MAC wins that Central Michigan has are against teams with a combined 10-17 season. I respect the Chips and they are well-coached and have a solid QB but the Broncos are a lot better than most realize and that will show up in a big way tonight. 10* WESTERN MICHGAN (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - Current total as of early game day morning is 39.5 for this one and the Chargers last 5 road games, including playoffs and dating back to last season, have all totaled at least 48 points. From that standpoint, we are testing a 5-0 spot here because we only need 40 points to be a winner! Not only that, those 5 games averaged 54 points apiece! Also, the weather will be good for this one tonight which is good news as it can certainly get rainy and windy this time of year in New York but the weather looks great for this one with light winds and a nice autumn evening on tap. The Chargers have a very solid offense but have struggled on defense. That opens up the door for the Jets to have some success through the air in this one. Keep in mind, the Jets have won 3 straight games and Wilson has been playing better so confidence is up even though they did not score well last week against the Giants. Keep in mind, that one was played in ugly weather conditions. Also, the Jets defense - if you look at the stats - looks strong this season but certainly has given up plenty of yardage against the better teams they have faced. The Chargers will be able to move the ball well here but I do not completely trust their defense on the road. Look for plenty of points in this one as LA has given up at least 24 points in 5 straight road games but they are favored on the road for a reason here. In other words, don't be surprised if this one gets into the 50s and yet we only need 40s to be a winner. This is a great high value spot and also I want to note that under coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers are 7-1 to the over when they are favored and facing an opponent that is off a SU win and ATS cover/tie in most recent game. Also, the aforementioned 5-0 run of high-scoring road games is ready for 6 in a row here! 10* OVER the total in New York Jets

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play the total in Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:20 ET - The total is in the 50.5 range on this one as of about 10 AM ET on game day. This is a revenge game from the post-season last year as certainly Buffalo is out for revenge. The thing is Joe Burrow looked very strong last week for the Bengals and the Bills defense, yardage-wise, has truly not been as good as expected to be coming into this season. I believe Cincy will move the ball very well here. At the same time, the Bills have an ultra dangerous offense when Josh Allen takes care of the ball and he is taking on a rather weak Bengals defense that has struggled often this season. They had to come up big for the upset win over the Niners but so often defenses quickly come back down to earth after a huge game like that. Also, the weather is going to be perfect including light winds in Cincy tonight so we should two solid quarterbacks taking advantage and airing it out in this one. Bills D came up strong on the road in one game this season but they allowed 25 ppg in their other 3 games away from home. The Bengals have allowed 26 ppg in their 3 games against AFC opponents. Combining this plus the weather plus the expectation of strong QB play (Burrow looked healthy, Allen looks for revenge), I really like this over a lot. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - First off, the Eagles are a 3 point favorite here at home and this is a reasonable line considering many people look at the Eagles and Cowboys as roughly equal. However, there always tends to be some additional market love for the Cowboys and that seems to be the case again here as one could easily argue that this line should be higher. Philadelphia is 7-1 this season and that includes blowing out Miami. The Cowboys really do not have a signature win and they are in the same situation here that has seen them get hammered twice already this season. That is, Dallas is off a big home win and now on the road. So far this season they got hammered by the Cardinals and 49ers when in this situation. By the way, Eagles are in a great situation here with a bye on deck and, of course, will be fully prepared to go all out with a week off up ahead! Philly is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when a bye on deck. Another perfect trend here is that Philadelphia is 8-0 ATS when they are at home with revenge and facing a team that is off a SU win. Logically this makes sense and you can use this situation as a perfect example. Cowboys played almost the perfect game in knocking off Rams (and knocking QB Stafford out of game) last week but now go on the road and face a revenge-minded opponent. The Eagles were 13-1 last season when they then went on the road and lost at Dallas. This will be payback time for that loss and Philly gets the cover here as well to improve on both those 100% perfect trends! The Eagles are so strong against the run and it will force Prescott to try and beat them through the air and he so often struggles in the big games and is on the road for this one as well. Eagles could create problems for him once again here. The recent series between these teams has been dominated by the home team and that continues here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play LA Rams (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Rams are on the road and just got hammered 43-20 last week at Dallas so they have no chance here, right? Actually Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay, has gone 7-0 ATS when they are on the road and coming off a game in which they allowed more than 35 points. An ugly loss like that is an attention getter! Yes, I know Stafford got hurt last week and likely will not play here. However, Rypien has some NFL experience and, as you guys know, there is nothing too easy in the sports wagering world. Many will be looking and thinking that the Rams are off an ugly loss and the Packers are at home and laying 3.5 points and it just looks too easy, right? How I look at this is in contrarian fashion but certainly not without reason. Rypien has had a chance to prepare all week with the first team guys and he'll be ready and, overall, the Rams are the better team. I know that LA is struggling this season but so too is Green Bay. The Packers have gone just 1-5 SU the last 6 games and the only win was by 1 point! The Packers have failed to cover 5 straight games and that 0-5 ATS run is ready for 0-6 here plus I see the Rams taking their aforementioned situational trend here to a perfect 8-0 ATS the last 8. Grab the points (currently 3.5). 10* LA Rams + points

CFB Saturday OVER the total in Colorado Buffaloes vs Oregon State Beavers @ 10 ET - This total is right around 61 as of early gameday morning. The weather will be fantastic today in Boulder, CO which means even this evening it will be nice there with light winds and chilly but comfortable temperatures for this time of year. This is the time of year that storm systems can bring plenty of wind and snow here but not this weekend! That said, Colorado's passing attack will be able to operate to its fullest extent and that is all they have! They must throw throw throw as their running game has struggled this season. In terms of numbers of offensive plays this season the Buffs play rather fast and they must thrown and their QB is having a solid season. The good news for Colorado here is that the Oregon State pass defense has not been as good this season as we have seen in the past. The bad news for the Buffs is that their own defense is horrible and the Beavers have a balanced offensive attack that can take full advantage. The Buffaloes allowed only 28 points last week but they gave up nearly 500 yards and were very fortunate in the turnover battle. As for the Beavers, they are angry off a 27-24 loss in which they did have over 400 yards of offense and that was against a better defense than what they are facing this week. Oregon State, I expect, will score early and often and throughout this contest. As for the Buffs, they do play better at home and their last 3 home games have been wild, high-scoring affairs and I expect the same here. In terms of line value here, this total could be much higher in my opinion but the fact each team is off of an under is keeping this total lower than it would have been. Also, note that NEITHER team has had B2B unders this entire season so the odds certainly favor a bounce back over here. Oregon State games were 5-2 to the over this season before last week's under. The Buffaloes are 3-0 to the over last 3 home games! Look for the 100% PERFECT season trend for each team of NOT having B2B unders to continue here! OVER the total in Colorado

CFB Saturday Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 3:30 ET - The current line on this one is as low as 8.5 as of early game day morning. I like the Nittany Lions to roll here. You might remember we took the over in their game last week because they were off the hard fought loss to the Buckeyes the week before. Sure enough the defense was worn out and they had a bad game against Indiana as I predicted. You can bet (literally) that they are going to now "bring it" in this tune-up game at Maryland before the huge game hosting Michigan next week. Had PSU beaten Ohio State and if they, therefore, were coming into this game undefeated on the season then I might feel differently about this spot. However, coming off a loss to the Buckeyes followed by a lackluster defense effort against the Hoosiers, I am sure the Nittany Lions are going to bring their A Game in this one. That is bad news for a Terrapins team that has lost 3 straight games both SU and ATS! By the way, the Nittany Lions are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when they are a road favorite of more than 6 points against a team that is coming off B2B SU/ATS losses. This trend makes perfect sense because if PSU is favored big but on the road it means they are facing a team they are expect to dominate. Couple that with the fact that the team is off B2B poor performances and that means that struggling home team likely is slumping! I like playing trends that make good sense and Maryland was actually about a 2 TD favorite in each of those last two games. Look for the trend to reach a perfect 7-0! PENN STATE (-)

CFB Saturday Utah Utes (-) vs Arizona State Devils @ 2 ET - This line is around 10.5 or 11 as of early gameday morning. I know that might seem like a bit much but the Utes hammered ASU last season. They are so strong in the trenches, the Utes are. Utah also punches a team in the mouth. They are physical and tough and this is particularly true when they are angry. This is a perfect set up for a blowout home win. The Utes are off a bad loss to Oregon but that Ducks team is, as usual, super strong this season. That actually ties into this play because everyone talks about the Sun Devils defense but I am not 100% sold on them. The reason is because, other than Washington, have they really played ultra strong teams with ultra potent offenses? Then the Oregon factor is that ASU caught the Huskies off their upset win over the Ducks! That remains the only loss for the Ducks this season. So Arizona State only lost 15 to 7 to Washington but they caught them off the huge upset win! The Sun Devils are facing a different animal this time around as they catch the Utes off the Ducks but, for Utah, it was an embarrassing home loss! That said, this is going to be a blowout win for the road team. I know their numbers on offense are not that great but neither are the numbers of the Sun Devils on that side of the ball. The difference in this game will be that we have the much more physical team and and the stronger defense. This will allow the Utes to pull away as this game goes on! Bryson Barnes was certainly respectable through the air and on the ground in the two games prior to struggling against the Ducks. He will bounce right back with a strong game at QB here against an over-rated Sun Devils defense. This is the Utes final home game of the season other than Thanksgiving weekend so they are sure to make this one count after getting blown out at home last week. UTAH (-)

CFB Friday Colorado State Rams + @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 8 ET - This line is nearly a TD as there are books as high as a 6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that the Cowboys offensive struggles are a concern in a spot like this. The defense of Wyoming is not as much of a strength as it has been in recent seasons. As for the offense, they just do have a lot of firepower. Colorado State is by no means a stronger team than Wyoming but I would call them roughly equal. So then when you factor in that this is a rivalry game plus a double revenge spot for the Rams, the points become very attractive in this spot. Remember the other rivalry game for Colorado State against Colorado earlier this season? The Rams should have won that game outright and certainly gave the Buffaloes all they could handle in that eventual OT loss. This is going to be another game where the Rams have a great shot at the outright upset. Wyoming is 5-3 SU this season but only one win was by a double digit margin and the Cowboys enter this game off B2B losses. As for Colorado State, they had won 3 of 5 games before the loss at Air Force last week and in that 3-2 SU run one of the losses was by just 2 points. The Rams have a solid passing attack and the weather (by Laramie, WY standards) truly will not be too bad for this one. An evening game, the wind will start to lay down and is not expected to be too intense and there is no precipitation expected and temperatures in the 40s. Nice football weather really and the Rams passing attack will be the difference in this one. COLORADO STATE +

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans + @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Steelers are the worst 4-3 NFL team to be seen in quite some time. The odds makers know it too. That is why Pittsburgh is HOSTING a Titans team here that is 0-3 on the road this season yet the Steelers are hardly favored here. The current line is 3 points as of early Thursday morning and I am happy to be getting the full field goal here with a team I expect to win outright. It is a miracle that Pittsburgh has a winning record this season as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL statistically on BOTH sides of the ball. Granted the Titans are not a whole lot better but they are are going to ride the positive momentum of a strong performance from QB Will Levis last week while Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky certainly did not look impressive last week. Tennessee has some momentum coming off a win and remember too that one of their road losses was by just a single point. The Steelers do not have a single win by more than a TD this season and, again, they have been so fortunate in those games and yet still barely won. Statistically poor but showing the betting markets a team that was 4-2 entering last week facing a team that was 2-4 entering last week and plus they are at home so, naturally, the Steelers will be getting the attention here. I am grabbing the underdog Titans and fading a Pittsburgh team that has 3 losses by an average margin of 19 points and their wins have been by an average margin of 6 points. Over-rated Steelers as the stats YTD show. 10* TENNESSEE +

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play South Alabama Jaguars + @ Troy Trojans @ 7:30 ET - There are bigger match-ups tonight in Big 12 and ACC so why is my only wager in the SunBelt tonight? Because we go for the best spots not the biggest conferences or biggest games. That said, I love this spot because this is a revenge spot for the Jaguars and they are coming off a loss in this battle last season. These are two of the top teams in this conference but South Alabama does have a pair of conference losses already and is not happy about that and they just lost by double digits at home in a game in which they were favored by double digits! That is an attention-getter to say the least and the angry Jags will be ready here. Conversely, Troy is off a big win over Texas State and I like the hungry revenge-minded team that is coming off a loss here. Also, I know you can't just point to one game comparison for an example but one thing absolutely worth noting here is both these SBC foes faced a Big 12 team this season and the Trojans got hammered 42-13 at Kansas State while the Jaguars won 33-7 at Oklahoma State. There is a reason the home team with the better record is hardly favored here. This line is in the 4 or 4.5 range as of early gameday morning and the play here is the underdog. 10* SOUTH ALABAMA +

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals +5.5 @ Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - We have solid underdog value here. Yes the Falcons have the better record this season but the Cardinals are off B2B ATS covers including a SU win in most recent game. That was an outright win as an underdog and followed a solid 13 to 6 loss to Toledo. The Rockets are by the far the best team in the MAC and Ball State lost to them by only 7 points in a game in which they were a 17 point dog. So the Cardinals are playing some of their best football of the season right now. The Falcons have the better record this season but they have also lost a couple of MAC games by a combined 65 to 7 score and they have not even faced Toledo yet. The Cardinals can compete here and might even spring the outright upset. Their confidence is growing and, though BG is off a big win it came against a very bad Akron team. Upset alert here. 10* BALL STATE +5.5

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Central Michigan (+) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - This line is around 5.5 points and the home dog is the play here. Central Michigan is off an outright loss as a favorite. Now they are hosting a Huskies team that is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they have faced a conference opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite. I am sure the Chippewas are going to bring a strong effort here and note that Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings with Central Michigan. I remember two years ago the Huskies had a strong season but seemed to have the most fortunate season ever in terms of winning close games. Sure enough last season they went 3-9. This season they started the year 1-4 but now suddenly have won 3 straight games. However, the 3 wins included a blowout win over Akron and the Zips are 0-7 SU this season against FBS schools as their only win on the year was against an FCS team. Also, the other win for UNI in this 3-game win streak is they beat Ohio U but in that one they had a 3-0 turnover advantage and actually the Bobcats had more first downs than the Huskies in the 23-13 Ohio U defeat. Then the other win for Northern Illinois was over Eastern Michigan 10 days ago but again they benefited from a 2-0 turnover advantage! The Huskies trailed the Eagles by 10 points entering the 4th quarter of that one and they were a double digit favorite in that game! Simply put, based on all these above factors there is no justification for UNI being this big of a favorite on the road and the Chippewas lost the most recent meeting as a host here after winning 3 straight at home against them. This will be payback for the Chips and, as tough as their season has been this year, look at their home performances. They are a perfect 3-0 at home. Granted the competition in those 3 games was weak but it gives them some confidence and they can give the Huskies all they can handle here and possibly even win the game outright. Those two trends noted above are a combined 14-2 ATS in favor of the home dog here and I like those odds! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (-) vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - I know this line is currently a 7.5 as of early gameday morning but I feel we have the solid line value here with the home favorite. Both teams off ugly losses but the Lions have looked like the better team this season and have some solid wins to show for it and have a better chance of bouncing back. If you look at Las Vegas, their 3 wins have been over 3 bad teams that are now a combined 7-16 on the season! They are not going to be a Lions team that was 5-1 on the season prior to last week's embarrassing loss. In terms of technical support for this play, the Raiders under head coach Josh McDaniels have gone 1-7 ATS in road games against non-divisional opponents. That includes losing to the Bills and Bears this season by a combined score of 68 to 22. I do not think this one will be that much of a blowout but I do feel strongly that the Lions will bounce back at home and win this by double digits. They are the better overall team on both sides of the ball. Also, in terms of technical support, the Lions are 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they were off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. Additionally, Detroit is a fantastic 7-0 ATS when they are at home off a game in which they allowed more than 35 points! This is the perfect spot to test that perfect trend as the Lions can take advantage of home field and facing a weak Raiders team and turn this into a blowout win as the aforementioned trend reaches 8 straight winners ATS! 10* DETROIT (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Bears just got their 2nd win of the season after getting 3 wins last season. The significance of this is that these are the only 5 wins that Chicago has under head coach Matt Eberflus and they have gone 0-4 ATS so far when coming off a win under Eberflus. In fact, dating back to the season before he got here, fading the Bears when they are off a SU win is now a 5-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS the last 5. When the casual observer looks at this one they will wonder how a 2-win Chargers team can be laying 8 or 8.5 points against a 2-win Bears team! Well, the fact is the line could fool some folks for sure but not us! LA should roll here. The Bears now have a rookie QB from a Division II school making his first ever road start and this is after a "game management" win he notched over a bad Raiders defense last week. Now I know the Chargers defense has struggled too but they have faced quite a tough schedule so far and yet they have been quite solid against the run. That said, what happens if the Bears can't run well and are forced to rely on their rookie QB to win this game? Not much is my prediction and the strength of this Chargers team is its passing attack and the Bears weakness on D is the pass defense. This is a great set up for the home team to dominate especially with them coming off B2B SU losses. The Bears have suddenly won 2 of 3 but this is not a very good football team. Conversely, many had the Chargers pegged to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West this season. I don't think that assessment was entirely wrong either but sometimes it takes awhile for the cream to rise to the top. Look for the aforementioned Bears "play against" angle to move to a PERFECT 6-0 ATS L6 as the home team rolls to a double digit win. 10* LA CHARGERS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - This line is currently a -7 as of early game day morning. Look for the Eagles to roll by much more than just a TD in this one. Philadelphia allowed Washington to score late and take them to OT in the most recent meeting. They will not make the same mistake here. The Eagles were also 3-0 SU and ATS this season in road games before the turnover-filled ugly loss in New York when they fell short against the Jets. All of the above insures proper focus from Philly here even though they do have a big home game versus the rival Cowboys on deck. The Eagles are catching the Commanders at the right time to inflict a blowout defeat upon Washington. The Commanders are struggling badly and reeling after the 14-7 loss to the division rival Giants. New York was just 1-5 on the season and self-doubt is now setting in on this Commanders team that has lost 4 of 5 including their last two home games by a combined score of 77 to 23. When Washington started this season 2-0 it was truly "smoke and mirrors" and reality is setting in. If you look at the stats of these two teams, the Eagles are one of the best in the league on both sides of the ball while Washington is one of the worst on both sides of the ball. It is truly a minor miracle that the Commanders have managed 3 wins this season and they are set up to get hammered here by a focused Philly team that will want to make sure there is no OT possible in this rematch! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - We are getting line value with this total in the 41.5 range as of early gameday morning. Yes the weather will be cold in Green Bay but nothing unusual. It will be above freezing and the winds are light and no precipitation is expected. That said, I look for both offenses to enjoy plenty of success. Don't be surprised if the Vikings defense is worn out after a great effort versus the 49ers last week. That takes a lot out of a defensive unit and now they are on short rest too. As for the Minnesota offense, they could have scored even much more than they did last week and that is helping to give us line value here. Yes, the Packers defense has some decent numbers this season but have you looked at the teams (and offenses) they have faced recently. Note that when they faced a tougher team like Detroit they gave up 34 to the Lions. I look for the over-rated GB defense to have some trouble with a Vikings offense that is growing with confidence as Cousins keeps firing away downfield. Now, I am certainly also well aware that the Packers offense has been struggling and interceptions have been an issue the last two weeks as well. However, don't be surprised if they show marked improvement on the offensive side of the ball now that they are back at home this week. The Packers have played a road-heavy schedule so far this season and that has done no favors for an offense led by a young QB. The Pack offense will bounce back this week as the Vikings defense left a lot on the field against San Francisco in that big upset win Monday night. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 66.5 in California Golden Bears vs USC Trojans @ 4 ET - The Trojans have one of the most efficient offenses in the nation on the season and have continued piling up points. The Golden Bears are not nearly as prolific on offense but they do play with a good pace and that is why their number of plays run on offense is high this season. This afternoon they are likely to be playing catch-up all day long and that is why the play here is the over. USC continues to see their defense let them down week after week but their offensive unit continues to pile up points! Look for more of the same here. USC is averaging 45 points per game this season but also has allowed at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Trojans are a double digit favorite with good reason here but, though they will score well, they will also continue to give up points at the other end of the field too! California had scored 32 points per game their last 4 games before they lost badly to Utah and struggled last week. The Utes are very tough on defense so the Cal offense will get right back on track here at home against a weak defense. However, this Cal defense has now allowed an average of 41.5 points per game their last 4 games. This game looks about 45 to 35 the way I see it and, at a minimum, we should get into the 70s here the way the Trojans have been playing on both sides of the ball. 10* OVER 66.5 in California

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars +20.5 @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - The Cougars could surprise here. UT will be going with a back-up quarterback here because of the Ewers injury. I know the Horns have talented options at the back-up position but that does not mean these guys are going to come in and light things up at the Division 1 CFB level. There is a lack of experience for these guys. At the same time, everyone is saying the Horns can run all over BYU here due to some of the bad rushing defense numbers that the Cougars have. But if you can worry a little less about a team's passing attack and you can focus more on stopping the run, guess what happens usually? I am not saying that the Longhorns will not have success moving the ball here but I am going to challenge them to win this game by 3 touchdowns! I just do not see that happening. BYU is a respectable program and they showed last week again that this team can generate turnovers. They also have a defensive-minded head coach. This actually could be a tricky match-up for Texas as BYU has the experience edge at QB in this one and I feel the Cougars could hang around for a long time in this game just like we saw what Wyoming did in Austin earlier this season. The Longhorns have some big wins this season but they also have allowed an average of 29 points per game the past two games. The defense has regressed some and the offense has taken a brief hit with the Ewers injury and BYU has only truly been blown out in one game this season and they tend to be a consistently solid and competitive team. They will be in this one all the way the way I see it. 10* BYU +20.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 45 in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Indiana Hoosiers @ Noon ET - Every year after facing the Buckeyes, PSU tends to struggle a bit defensively. Keep in mind, facing a powerhouse offense like Ohio State and giving all your best to slow them down certainly can take a lot out of a defensive unit so the logic here makes sense. The fact is that other than holding Rutgers to single digits one year (and we know how bad the Scarlet Knights have been historically), the other 7 times for PSU the week after facing OSU, they have allowed an average of 24 points per game! Not only that, they have allowed at least 14 points all 7 times! The odds makers, as I have said many times in the past, tend to be the proverbial sharpest guys in the room! They have PSU as as a favorite of 31 points. So if we can logically expect Penn State to roll big here on offense but also expect their defense to give up some points (also based on logic as noted above) you are looking at about a 45-14 final here which is well past the posted number. I know the Hoosiers offense has struggled but watch them surprise a little in this game as the Penn State defense is still thinking "what could have been" in last week's loss at Ohio State (this happens every year it seems). Also note that this Indiana team has surrendered an average of 42 points per game the last 3 weeks. The weather in State College can get chilly this time of year and actually it is going to get colder here in a few days. However, the key is Saturday's weather is mild with also light winds. The result is plenty of offense here. 10* OVER 45 in Penn State

CFB Friday Charlotte 49ers (+) vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - The 49ers get a little boost of confidence with the win at East Carolina. It was not easy and the Charlotte offense has not been impressive but their defense sure has. That makes the Niners a defensive-minded home dog and I like to grab teams like this when they are getting a field goal or more. In this case the dominant line is 3.5 but there is some 4 out there as well as of about 9 hours before kickoff. Charlotte had one hiccup at SMU when you look at their last 4 games but in the other 3 they allowed an average of only 14 points per game and that included facing an SEC foe when they battle Florida. FAU just got blasted by UTSA and the Owls have gone just 2-4 SU against FBS schools this season. One of those wins for Florida Atlantic was by just 3 points. Statistically FAU has the better offense even though the Owls are not great on that side of the ball. However, defensively it is the 49ers with the edge especially in the yardage allowed category. Also, FAU has blown out Charlotte each of the past two seasons and yet look at the very small number posted on this game! Do not let the small line fool you. Grab the points with the home dog as they get their revenge here. CHARLOTTE (+)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The Bills have underachieved so far this season but statistically remain a strong team on both sides of the ball. They have frequently been done in by turnovers and that has held them back. Now they are at home and coming off a loss and are set up well for a big bounce back. I normally do not like to lay big points but this Bucs team is not very good. They have overachieved so far this season as shown by their statistics so far on both sides of the ball. Also, all their wins have come against bad teams. They will get exposed here. Also, they are off a heart-breaking divisional loss to Atlanta. Now they are facing a non-divisional foe on Thursday night. That is a situation that has not gone well for them as, when facing a team from outside the NFC South in a Thursday game, the Buccaneers have gone 0-6 ATS. Look for that trend to reach 7 in a row here. The Bills are angry off a loss and they have won both games this season when they were off a loss. I know one of those was a non-cover but the other 3 wins that Buffalo has this season have all come by a margin of 24 or more more points! I would not be surprised to see a similar result here but definitely can sense that, at the very least, Bills do win this by a double digit margin. 10* BUFFALO (-)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) @ Virginia Tech @ 7:30 ET - Most will back the Hokies here. After all, they are at home and laying only 3 points as of gameday morning. How can this line be set like this when the Orange have lost 3 straight and the Hokies are 2-1 in ACC play plus at home for this game? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. The Orange have played a murderer's row of competition in their ACC action that preceded their bye week. They will be ready to bounce back here off their bye week while I expect Virginia Tech could come into this one overconfident. The Hokies have won 2 of last 3 games and see the Orange coming into Blacksburg with an 0-3 ACC record! We have seen this movie before! In other words, the overconfident home team is set up well to get upset here and we'll grab the points just in case but Syracuse is coming into this one highly motivated and angry off the recent results and they will get back on track. Note that Virginia Tech is 0-5 ATS as a weekday favorite the last 5 times and this looks like the ideal spot for that streak to NOT be broken and reach 6 in a row. The Hokies have struggled in this situation. Also, taking a look at recent action overall, the road team is already 4-0 SU/ATS in this week's CFB action going 2-0 Tue and 2-0 Wed and I would not be surprised to see that trend continue Thu, at least in this ACC match-up. So often the home point spread adjustment is more of an overall factor and all it actually does is give us even more value with road teams. I know I fell short in my assessments Tue and Wed after another big Saturday but look for the CFB to get right back to winning as the road team value trend continues here given the situation and the factors noted above about this match-up. 10* SYRACUSE +

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Sam Houston State Bearkats (-) vs UTEP Miners @ 8 ET - Well I am not too happy this line is up as high as a 3.5 as of early gameday morning. However, the Bearcats are absolutely the play here and should finally get that solid win they have been longing for all season long. Sam Houston is new to FBS action and they also remain the only FBS school in the nation without a SU victory yet this season. So why are the 0-7 Bearkats favored here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you here. UTEP is a very bad team. Sam Houston has deserved better. Also, the Bearkats have the better overall defense. I know the Kats offense has struggled this season but they have been better statistically in their last 4 games and this will be their breakthrough game. The Miners are struggling and off a 28-7 loss last week. I went against them then with New Mexico State and I will do the same here! You might think UTEP should bounce back off such an ugly low-scoring loss but the trending actually shows otherwise. The Miners are actually just 1-10 ATS the last 11 times they have been a road dog and coming off a game in which they were held to single digits in scoring! Overall, in weekday road games, even though they won in that role at FIU a few weeks ago, UTEP is still just 2-9 ATS last 11 weekday road games. The Bearkats win big in this one and finally break into the win column! 10* SAM HOUSTON STATE (-)

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - Something fishy here with this line. It opened even lower than the current number which, as of early gameday morning, is in the 5.5 range. Love the home dog value here. Liberty is undefeated on the season but they just allowed 35 points last week and have played a very weak schedule. This could be the week the Flames finally lose but, even if the Hilltoppers fall short, I expect them to do enough for the ATS win. The key here is that Western Kentucky is only 4-3 on the season but their overall season stats are impacted by a blowout loss to Ohio State. Note that their other two defeats, including one last week at Jacksonville State, have each come by just a field goal. That said, Western Kentucky is a tougher opponent than one might think from just looking at their record and comparing it to Liberty here. In their most recent weekday home game, the Toppers blew out MTSU by a 31-10 count. That brings their current run to 7-0 ATS in weekday home games! Look for that ATS streak to reach 8 in a row here. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (+)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - Generally speaking I like playing strong teams off losses and fading mediocre or bad teams off wins. That said, this one already sets up perfectly with the Niners off their first loss of the season in an upset defeat at Cleveland plus the Vikes off the divisional win over the Bears last week. The big key though that has me pulling the trigger with a top play here is that there also is strong historical ATS data that adds to the strength factor here. In other words, we have a good situation already as we know we have the better team angry off a loss and we are fading a team off a key win that also has, by the way, alternated ATS wins and losses all season long. However, what really strengthens this one is the fact that the Vikings have failed to cover 8 in a row when they are a dog on Monday Night Football. Also, San Francisco has covered 11 times in a row when they are off an outright upset loss as a road favorite and now facing a team that is off a SU win. The 49ers also have covered 6 straight times when they are on the road on Monday night. As the saying goes, good teams win but great teams cover and I like taking a good team when the are in a spot when they should bring their top effort. That usually ends up being one of their games with a great result! In other words, I am happy to test the triple perfect ATS angles here and we'll lay the points which is currently less than 7 at 6.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) 

NFL Sunday 10* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - This is a great spot for a play on the Eagles at a bargain price. As of early gameday morning the line on this one is -2.5 or -3 and Philly is at home here. Their last 4 games were against teams that all now have reached 3 wins on the season. What does that matter here? Well, the Dolphins have 4 games this season against teams that are now a combined 3-21 SU on the season! That is not a mistype. 4 teams now sitting all at 1-5 SU or worse on the season. Miami has faced two teams with a pulse. They allowed 34 points and 48 points in those 2 games. One was a 2-point win and the other was a 28-point loss. I am not sold on this Miami team just yet. I am sold on grabbing the Eagles off a loss when they are coming off a Super Bowl season and have faced the tougher schedule than their opponent and are at home and laying only a field goal. This is a great value. Philly has the much better defense in this match-up. They also are at home and they are coming off a loss. I do not see them losing two straight in a situation like this and their offense is also statistically better than their point total shows. That said, they are capable of trading scores with this high-powered Dolphins team. However, I do think their defense will get enough stops to slow this game down and not let Miami get the kind of game they want this to be. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:05 ET - There is much more than a revenge angle to this game but first off it is worth noting the last meeting between these teams ultimately cost the Rams a playoff spot. The coaches were the same and Sean McVay will be out for payback over Mike Tomlin in this one. Prior to last season's surprising disappointment for the Rams after winning the Super Bowl the year before, the Rams had only missed the playoffs one time after McVay's rookie season with the team. The year was 2019 and the Rams lost as a favorite in a game that would have improved them to 6-3 on the season had they won. LA never lost another game they were favored in the rest of the way but ultimately ended the season 9-7 and needing that 10th win for a playoff spot. The Rams ended the 2019 season as the only NFC team with a winning record to NOT make the post-season. Losing that game to the Steelers (you need to win the games you are favored in) ultimately proved to be the difference! The set up entering this one is great because the Steelers, though off a bye week, got an upset win over the Ravens the week before. Los Angeles is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when they are favored by less than 7 points and facing a team that is off an outright upset winner as an underdog! The Rams are catching the Steelers off a key divisional upset win and the timing is perfect for LA to take that run to 8-0 ATS! I am looking for a blowout home win here and taking advantage of the line value. The Steelers have won games with smoke and mirrors this season. They rank horribly from a yardage perspective both on offense and defense this season! It is truly a miracle that they have a winning record this season. We take advantage with exceptional line value here as the Rams have faced a very tough schedule with games against the NFC best 49ers and Eagles already this season and yet LA has survived to at least be 3-3 so far this season and that is despite a 1-2 record in home games because of having faced Philly and SF here. I feel the Rams are a bit under-rated right now as a result and, also, this Steelers team is absolutely over-rated right now! We take advantage. Lay the points (currently -3 as of early game day morning) with the home team in this one. The Steelers have won the recent meetings between these teams but McVay and Company get revenge for the most recent one right here right now with a dominating win. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Watch the Browns defense soften up after facing a very tough 49ers team last week and notching an upset win. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland could get a boost with the return of QB Watson. Either way, I expect the Browns offense to enjoy a lot more success this week as they go from facing a league-best Niners defense to facing one of the league's lesser defensive units as they take on the Colts this week. However, even with a bad defense the news is not all bad in Indy this week. The Colts offense will again be led by QB Minshew and I expect them to again move the ball well this week but avoid the turnovers that plagued them against Jacksonville last week. Minshew has a history of this. He'll have an ugly game with turnovers and then follow it up with a solid effort. I think he and the Colts are catching the Browns in the perfect spot to get back on track. Cleveland's defense ranks high and that is what is keeping this total low but the Browns D likely to be a bit flat after the upset win over San Francisco. Also, in a bit of a scheduling quirk, Cleveland has had only one road game this season prior to this week and we are now in late October! The Browns defense tends not to travel and they have allowed 24 points on average in last 10 games away from home. So if the odds makers are correct with their point spread here - as they so often are - that would put this game in the 28-24 range if Browns allow their typical road average. That is double digits above the current posted total on this one in the 40.5 to 41 range as of early game day morning! I love the value here considering the situation. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ USC Trojans @ 8 ET - Now the Trojans are sure to bounce back, right? After all, they were on a huge roll before getting destroyed by Notre Dame last week. However, there is a key to that hot run they were on! USC played 4 teams that currently have a combined record of 5-20 SU on the season! Surely the Trojans must have faced some tough teams before the Fighting Irish though, right? Nope! They barely hung on to beat Colorado by 7 and the Buffaloes have been proven to be a fraud and have one of the worst defenses in the league and they are very weak in the trenches. The other match-up in the Trojans 6-0 start was a 3-OT win over Arizona and the Wildcats are nothing special this season. So the point is USC had not really been challenged until they faced Notre Dame and we all saw how that went. Now they face a Utah team that is tough in the trenches and is willing to punch teams in the mouth. That is part of the reason the Utes got the wins over Southern Cal last season too. They are a scrappy, hard-nosed, well-coached team and they are catching a full TD in this match-up because QB is the high-profile position everyone pays attention to. Keep in mind, the Utes QB played well last week and we saw the Trojans QB struggle as he finally faced a tougher team and threw 3 interceptions. Based on the line movement in this one, everyone is backing the revenge-minded Trojans and the line is now up to a 7 as of early gameday morning. I love fading the popular choices and will gladly grab the gritty Utes here who just have to play a clean football game without a bunch of turnovers and they could even get the upset here. Either way I certainly like this tough defense at a full +7 and feel the Trojans could be suffering a case of unbeaten letdown this week! 10* UTAH (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Virginia Mountaineers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - We have seen this total drop from the low 50s to as low as 48 in some spots now as of early gameday morning. The last 4 meetings between these teams have all been unders too. That said, as long-time followers know, I am a contrarian and I love fading trends like this when the situation is right and the line value is there. Certainly in this case all the key factors are lining up well! The Mountaineers are off a heartbreak miracle hail mary catch at Houston to lose to the Cougars 41 to 39 last week. How does a defense bounce back from that? They do not! As for the Cowboys, they gave up a pile of points last week too but got a morale-boosting 39 to 32 win and have won back to back games over Kansas and Kansas State. Oklahoma State has scored at least 27 points in 5 of their 6 games this season. If the odds makers are right about the number here, like they usually are, the Mountaineers win this game by about 3 points. That puts this one at 30-27 if the Cowboys just hit their typical minimum this season! That is nearly 10 points higher than the current posted total and I feel we have excellent line value here. The Cowboys offense is showing big improvement of late but their defense has been susceptible of late and the Mountaineers just threw for nearly 400 yards at Houston last week. I know the WVU defense has put up some good numbers in some games this season but last week's game against the Cougars a sign of things to come and OSU has revenge here for last season's home loss. The Cowboys lost their regular season home finale to the Mountaineers and they are use to dominating in this series so they have payback on their minds here in Morgantown. The way their defense is playing though they are going to have to rely on their offense in their payback quest in this one. That said, look for plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in West Virginia

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - The line opened at nearly a TD but is down to the 4.5 range and I love fading movement like this. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU and ATS this season while the Buckeyes are also 6-0 SU but do have some ATS losses and I like that factor here as I feel Penn State is a bit over-valued here. Both defenses have been great this season. However, there is a key here in that the Nittany Lions have not faced anyone in terms of a threat offensively. The 3 Big Ten teams they have faced are Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern. All 3 have been horrible on offense. In non-conference action, PSU has also faced some really bad teams offensively. At least Ohio State had to battle a strong Notre Dame team this season plus they did face a respectable offense in non-conference action when they took on Western Kentucky. The point is I feel the Buckeyes have the better defense and are more battle-tested no matter what the stats say. Also, OSU is at home for this one and their QB already engineered a key win over the Fighting Irish in a pressure-packed situation. Conversely, though Lions QB Allard has been great this season, this will be his first real test and he is on the road and his team is facing an opponent that has been dominating them in recent seasons. I look for another solid home win here as Penn State is getting close but they are just not quite there yet and they get exposed here and the Buckeyes pull away to win this game by double digits. 10* OHIO STATE (-)

CFB Friday 10* Temple Owls (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - As of about 7 hours before kickoff the Owls are as much as a 24 point dog here. I waited for the line to jump because of the fact the Owls starting QB may not play again this week. The key difference though is last week it was announced 20 minutes prior to kickoff. This week the Owls have been preparing all week knowing that they may be going with the #2 guy. The back-up will be much better this week and we are getting a truckload of points to work with. Yes, the Mustangs are much better than the Owls but this is a rare standalone national TV game for Temple. This is the only thing going Friday night. In other words, these guys might be approaching this game as their super bowl when you consider how their season is going. Of course that does not mean they have the talent level to win this game but I do expect Temple to really step here and the Owls will keep this game a lot closer than most are expecting. Look for it to be decided by a 2-score margin as the Owls are not as bad as their record shows and will certainly be looking to put forward a strong effort at Lincoln Field in Philly. This is a rare primetime showcase for the Owls and they will make the most of it. SMU is the stronger team by far but the Mustangs also are on a 2-11 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B road conference games! That is not an easy thing to do and this their only such occurrence of that this season and we step in to take advantage! 10* TEMPLE (+)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - This line, as of mid-morning game day, is mostly a -2 or you can look at about -130 on the money line. I definitely like the Saints in this spot a ton even with the line moving slightly toward them. For one thing there are questions about the health of Jaguars QB Lawrence entering this one. But, more importantly, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Jags as they are now on short rest and this is after spending two weeks in London for multiple games there before coming back stateside for last week's game and now they have the short turnaround for the Thursday game and this one is on the road. Also, the Jags have been winning some games with "smoke and mirrors" the way I see it. A lot of favorable bounces have gone the way of Jacksonville and they have had some turnover-fueled wins. The Saints are a solid defensive team as the stats show and I feel we have excellent value with the much better defense at home and coming off a loss and facing a travel-weary foe in this one. 10* NEW ORLEANS (-)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7 ET - Current line 3.5 at time of posting late morning game day. Both teams are off a bye and both are off losses before their bye week. However, Rice actually had a huge yardage edge against Connecticut and that was a turnover-fueled loss that is helping to give us line value now this week. I say that because these Owls have been moving the ball quite well and getting decent QB play. The same can not be said for Tulsa and they also have some inconsistency issues at QB as well. I just can not trust the Golden Hurricane with the QB play they have been getting and also their 3 wins are against an FCS school and a pair of FBS schools that each have losing records this season. The Owls defense has improved some in recent weeks too. I know the Owls are still searching for their first road win but this looks like a great spot to get it and I definitely do not trust this Tulsa offense. It has not matter who is at QB for them. The Golden Hurricane had a blowout win over a bad Temple team and an FCS school but in their other 4 games against FBS foes this season, they have averaged just 16.5 ppg this season. The Owls also have more consistency in terms of their head coach in his 5th season here while Tulsa under a new coach this season. Grab the road dog here to get it done in this one. If they do fall short look for it to be a field goal at most and the current line on this as of late morning on game day is 3.5 points. 10* RICE (+)

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play New Mexico State Aggies -3 @ UTEP Miners @ 9 ET - I know UTEP is coming off a win but that was against a bad FIU team. Also, the only other Miners win this season was against an FCS team. Since that win over Incarnate Word, UTEP had proceeded to lose 4 straight games and all the losses were by at least a 2 TD margin. The Miners coming off the win over the Panthers last week simply increases the line value here on the Aggies. UTEP might be hungrier off a loss but, off their first win over an FBS team this season, the Miners are lined up well to get hammered here. As for the Aggies, they have won 4 of 6 games and all 4 victories were by a double digit margin. Their defense is at least as good, if not better than the Miners and certainly the Aggies have the edge over this UTEP offense. The NM State offense actually has been better than we've seen in the past and I look for them to pull away for a comfortable road win in this one. Remember their season opening loss to UMass was a turnover driven defeat in which they won the yardage battle by 100 yards. They have responded ever since because one of their only 2 other losses was to a strong Liberty team. The Aggies are the better team and we get line value here because they are on the road. Lay it! 10* New Mexico State -3

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - This line is right around a 7.5 as of mid-morning on gameday and I am laying it! The Gamecocks got hammered at home versus Liberty last week and this followed some fortunate come from behind wins against weaker competition than the Flames. The point is that the Gamecocks are still overrated as they played a weak schedule and are very fortunate to be 5-2 SU on the season. So the Hilltoppers are only 4-2 on the season and on the road here but they are favored by a TD plus the hook? Seems like a headscratcher, right? Do not let the line fool you! Western Kentucky has played the tougher schedule and they are coming off a bye week and they are the overall better team that also has done a great job of creating turnovers this season. Jacksonville State having a 5-2 record this season will insure that the Toppers have the proper focus entering this one and I look for the road team to roll as a result.  Also, this play falls into a 100% system for WKU as they have won 6 in a row ATS when they enter game off of B2B wins SU+ATS and are now facing a team with a winning record. All this makes good sense as it means when the Toppers are rolling and now facing a team with a solid record (which helps keep the line reasonable) they have stayed hot. Look for coach Tyson Helton to again have his team ready to roll here! That streak reaches 7-0 ATS! Lay it! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers + vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - This line is as high as a +2 on the Chargers as of early gameday morning and this is a great spot for the home dog. Los Angeles is coming off a bye. LA has been in their home state ever since a win 3 weeks ago at Minnesota when they knocked off the Vikings. They are now off B2B wins plus expected to get stud RB Austin Ekeler back for this one. He has been out since Week 1 and he is a helluva player! That is when he put up 164 yards of offense, including 117 on the ground on just 16 carries, and he scored a touchdown. He essentially ran roughshod over a Dolphins team that is now 5-1 on the season. Speaking of facing tough opposition, it is something these Cowboys had not done until facing the Niners last week and we all know what happened then. Dallas looked like a high school team trying to take on a college team. Yes, it was that bad. Here is the thing. Dallas is not that good. They are overrated. Look at their skill position players. Look at how they perform against better teams. Prescott always seems to struggle against the better teams as he showed again last week. So the Cowboys stats on the season are quite irrelevant because what really matters is who they have played and then how they perform against better teams. So heading into this week, the 4 teams Dallas had faced entered this week with a combined record of 5-15. Do you really care what stats Dallas put up against such bad teams when they now face a team that is expected to be in the playoffs this season? Also, of the 5 teams Dallas has faced so far this season 4 of them then lost AGAIN this week! Now the Cowboys are on the road AGAIN and they are favored AGAIN and I am going to sit back and happily watch them again disappoint the legion of Boys fans all over the globe. This team is just not strong against the better teams in the league. Year after year they give their fans false hope by annihilating bad teams (which pads their inflated stats) and then struggling against better teams. As I said, last week when we had the Niners over the Cowboys, "Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great!" and also as I alluded to last week I am not a fan of McCarthy as a coach and think he again will get out-coached this week. Give me the home team to make it 3 straight wins. Note their 2 losses were by 2 points to a now 5-1 Miami team and the other loss in OT by a FG. So I will grab the points being offered here but I do not expect to need them. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+) points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This total has dropped to the 43.5 range. I understand the concern here with the Giants often struggling to score points. However, New York is going to get a surprising boost here with Daniel Jones out. I believe Tyrod Taylor - his 3 biggest seasons here in Buffalo - is going to step up with a big game in place of Jones. Going against his former team and with the Bills defense not looking quite as dominant as usual early this season, Taylor and the Giants are going to surprise some people this week. I know they have issues on the offensive line but also Saquan Barkley is likely to play in this one and I am expecting a huge effort in prime-time action on Sunday. The Giants have certainly struggled badly and faced a brutally tough schedule but they will want to step up here in primetime and finally put forth a positive effort on offense. I do expect that to happen but the issue is that the NYG defense has no chance (the way I see it) to stop a Bills offense that has been one of the best in the league statistically so far this season. The Buffalo offense has been piling up yardage through the air but often has been done in by turnovers. Even with those turnover issues, the Bills have averaged scoring 36 points per game last 4 games. The Giants allowing 30.6 points per game on the season and are in trouble here on defense. But look for NY to get an unexpected spark on offense with Taylor - he wants this and will be highly motivated for a strong game! The Giants are averaging 20 points per game on the road this season but are a 15 point dog here for a reason. How about a 35-20 Bills win per the above stats? That works for me and, either way, I am looking for at least 45 in this one but truly 55 would not surprise me at all! 10* OVER the total in Buffalo

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) points @ New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - For those of you that did not know, the Jets win at Denver last week was practically like New York winning their Super Bowl for this season. I am kidding but only partially kidding as the fact is there had been a major war of words between Broncos coach Payton and Jets offensive coordinator Hackett. The later had preceded him at Denver as the head coach and Payton made the mistake of criticizing him badly. Hackett, though only the OC, got the game ball after the Jets win over a bad Broncos team in which New York had over 400 yards of offense and scored 31 points. On that note, this is a big-time flat spot for what is still not a good Jets team and we have some 100% angles here that support 5-0 Philadelphia in this spot. The Jets are 0-5 ATS when they are a home dog after a game in which they scored at least 28 points. Also, in terms of historical data, the Eagles are a perfect 7-0 ATS when they face an AFC East opponent that is coming off a win. So this is a double perfect spot favoring the Eagles with those TWO 100% PERFECT trends. Statistically the Jets are not good on either side of the ball yet they have managed B2B covers and have a couple of SU wins on the season. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball and this is a value line at less than a TD. Currently the dominant number is 6.5 as of early gameday morning. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) points 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) points @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This line has moved to as high as 14.5 as of 7 hours before kick-off. This has me in play here because it is not easy to cover big spreads in the NFL. These guys are professionals and they are paid to play the game for a reason. This Panthers defense is actually statistically better than the Dolphins defense on the season when looking at yards. I know the problem in this match-up for Carolina backers is that the offense is certainly worlds better for Miami that it is for the Panthers. However, the Panthers need to protect the ball, play solid defense, create some turnovers, and catch the Dolphins looking ahead to a match-up with 5-0 Philly that is on deck. The fact is if all those things happened we even could see the biggest upset of the season here. I am not banking on that but I honestly do fully expect this game will be decided by a one-score margin. Even if I am wrong, but not by too much, a 2-TD margin here still gets us the cash. I love the big dog in this match-up as the set-up is perfect. The Giants team the Dolphins just beat is decimated by injuries. The Panthers are off another ugly loss but they played better than the final score indicated. Then when you factor in Miami's trip to Philadelphia is on deck while Carolina can go all out with a bye on deck, this is a fantastic match-up for a big dog cover. The Panthers are 14-2 ATS when they are off a road loss to an NFC opponent by a double digit margin. Trust me, that loss at Detroit got Carolina and Frank Reich's attention as they look to right the ship before the bye week. 10* CAROLINA + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Miami-Fl Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET - This total has dropped to as low as 56.5 as of early game day morning and I feel we have excellent line value here in what I anticipate to be a higher-scoring game. The Tar Heels are one of the faster-paced teams in the league based on number of offensive plays per game. Also, the Heels have a solid passing attack. The Hurricanes are expected to have the same potency on offense but were done in by their own mistakes in last week's loss to Georgia Tech. The Canes actually had over 450 yards of offense but had 5 turnovers in the game! That was why they scored only 20 points. They will make up for that here because the UNC defense is over-rated right now. However, I feel the Canes defense, though good, is also over-rated and facing a tough test here with a Tar Heels offense that has been dangerous in recent seasons. North Carolina has scored 31 points or more in all their games this season. The defense has solid numbers but look at the offenses they have faced. That certainly has played a key role. As for the Hurricanes, they should have scored a lot more last week and will make up for that here. Also, the Canes entered that game having scored at least 38 points in all their games this week. Similar to the Heels, strong defensive numbers but look at the offenses they faced in a number of those games. In my strong opinion, we have two solid offenses and two over-rated defenses and we have line value because each team off an under last week as well and I am not saying the defenses are not good but they will both be exposed here by two very talented offenses in perfectly fine weather conditions this evening. 10* OVER the total in North Carolina

CFB Saturday CFB 10* UMass Minutemen + points @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - I know it may seem tough to take one of the worst teams in FBS football against one of the best in the nation but, as of early game day morning the line on this one is as high as 42 points! There are some keys here that have led to big value here in a game in which I feel the Lions will call off the dogs before running up the score. One of the big keys here that I think people may be overlooking is that rain is in the forecast all day long in State College today. Beaver Stadium in PA will still be packed with fans but the field conditions could get sloppy here. I mean we are not just talking about drizzle or mist, this is supposed to a significant and persistent rainfall. I love having big dogs in ugly weather games and you will rarely see lines bigger than this one. I know UMass is a bad football team but they won their season opener on the road and also have a 2 point road loss under their belts, a 3 point home loss in OT as well, and they had as many first downs as Toledo in their loss to the Rockets last week that was a bit of a "phony" final score. Of course, the Minutemen are nowhere near on the level of Penn State but they have been a bit more competitive this season than what I have seen from them in the past. Also, they have a bye week on deck and certainly will leave it all on the field for this one in terms of their best effort. Speaking of byes, the Nittany Lions are off a bye week after a Big Ten road win at Northwestern and they have a huge game on deck at Ohio State. This is the perfect spot for the Nittany Lions to be a bit complacent early on in this game plus then start thinking about the Buckeyes once they do get up big in this game. They will likely rest their first stringers as this game goes on plus the expected ugly weather conditions will likely make the right choice to be a conservative grind it out second half with a heavy dose of the ground game and just running clock. Note that PSU is 0-4 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .666 and this is another one of those perfect spots for the Lions to be a bit complacent. Also, Penn State has covered just 20% of the time when coming off a game against Northwestern. I like all the edges here, including the weather, to help this game end up being decided in the 20s or maybe 30s at most. 10* MASSACHUSETTS + points

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys + points vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - In Lance Leipold's first season at Kansas the Jayhawks came to Stillwater, OK and got annihilated 55 to 3. They got major payback last season when they hosted the Cowboys and won 37 to 16. So the home team in the Mike Gundy vs Lance Leipold match-ups is 92 to 19 so far. This one, of course, is not going to be that easy for the hosts but I do think the home team wins and I love the fact we are getting 3 points to work with as home dog OSU is catching a full field goal as of early game day morning. Quick...when is the last time Kansas was a Big 12 road favorite? Stumped? Don't feel bad as it has been more than a DECADE as you have to go back about 14 years to find it! Sure, Kansas is improved and Oklahoma State is down from where they use to be but their ugly home loss to South Alabama was the wake-up call this team needed. The Cowboys have been undervalued since then and got an outright win last week as a double digit home dog to Kansas State! Just like knocking off the Wildcats they can now knock off the same-state Jayhawks as well. Kansas did not win last week's game as easily as the final score would lead you to believe. At least from a stats perspective. Also, their road game before that was an annihilation loss at Texas. Kansas has wins against a lot of bad teams this season. The last two games they have been without their starting QB and he is not expected to start this game either. As for the Cowboys, they seem to have things settling down at the QB position and have added confidence of the much needed win last week. Now they look to get some revenge and this spot is also supported by an 11-0 ATS angle. The last 11 times that OSU has been a dog of less than 7 points against a team that is coming in off a SU win, they have covered the spread all 11 times! This one should make it 12 straight as the Cowboys get revenge for last year's embarrassing loss at Kansas. Gundy has his guys ready and they protect their home turf in this one! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE + points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 10 ET - This line is around a dozen points as of early gameday morning and I feel it will prove to be too much. Stanford has a new head coach this season and is having some growing pains as expected. However, now they enter this game off a bye week and having had a chance to evaluate everything and make some changes and get ready to attack the rest of the season refreshed a bit both mentally and physically. Colorado, on the other hand, has a bye on deck and they enter this game off a tight win at Arizona State where they won the game by 3 points plus were outgained by 100 yards! The Buffaloes are over-rated because of all the Coach Prime hype. I am not saying they will not win this game but I do not expect them to cover. Note that 3 of the 4 wins Colorado has have come by a margin of 8 points or less and the one by 8 points was a very fortunate OT win over Colorado State. The other key about the Buffs wins is that none of them have come against a team that currently has a winning record this season. Now, as noted above, Stanford has certainly struggled. But one could argue (and rightly so) that the Buffaloes could easily be a 1-win team so far this season just like Stanford. Also, this situation is set up well with the Cardinal coming in off a bye week and catching double digits in points. I know Stanford has been bad this season but the Buffaloes are over-valued and the Cardinal view this game as a big one to jump-start their 2nd half of the season and the lion's share portion of their Pac-12 schedule which remains. The Buffaloes will overlook the Cardinal and this big road dog comes into this one fully ready. An outright upset would not shock me but of course that is still asking a bit much. I will happily grab the big points! 10* STANFORD (+)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Current line range is 10.5 points and is too much the way I see it! Game on short rest for both teams of course but this favors Denver in my opinion. Chiefs off win but were up in Minnesota and so not only a satisfying but coming off a week that involved travel. Yes the Broncos had to travel to get here of course but is a very short trip from Denver to KC and the Broncos mentality is much different entering this one. Denver is angry off embarrassing home loss to the Jets last week. Denver is now 1-4 this season and they lost 3 fumbles last week in a frustrating defeat. The Broncos will be the ugly dog here that no one wants to back but note that Sean Payton as a head coach has gone 9-3 ATS as a road dog and the last time they were in this role they were blasted by 50 points at Miami so I am quite confident Payton will have his troops ready this go around. Also, Payton's teams have gone 13-3 ATS as a divisional dog. Also, worth noting here is that the Chiefs have the Chargers up next. LA is the only real threat to KC for the division title this season. Could they get caught looking ahead? Keep in mind, the Chiefs are only 1-6 ATS last 7 in divisional games. The Chiefs also have covered just 2 of 8 when facing a team with a winning percentage under .400 so the lookahead theory is evident there too. Additionally, Kansas City has covered just 2 of 13 when coming off a non-conference road game and that was a hard-fought win over the Vikings last week. There is even more ATS stuff on this one from a situational standpoint but I will not bore you with the details. The simple fact is this is too many points to lay on a short week and facing an angry underdog that wants to play much better football this week. The Chiefs still the much better team of course and they find a way to win but I look for this game to be decided by just a 1-score margin as the Broncos put up a helluva fight! 10* DENVER (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - When Dana Holgorsen was coaching West Virginia he left because he could not get the contract he wanted. The Mountaineers certainly could afford to pay him but they just did not want to. They felt he was not worth it and Holgorsen ended up in Houston while Neal Brown took over at West Virginia. The result was that Brown ended up on the hot seat with struggles with the Mountaineers whereas Holgorsen built up to the level of an 11-2 season and bowl win just 2 years ago. They then won their bowl game again last season but it was overall a lackluster campaign compared to the year prior. Now, having struggled some early this season too, this first game after a bye week and first chance against his former team has Holgorsen and his team fired up. They want this game badly. Sometimes bye weeks come at a great time for a team and other times it is bad timing. In this case, the Cougars had been struggling with 3 losses in 4 games since winning their season opener versus UTSA. Conversely, the Mountaineers had surprisingly been rolling with 4 straight wins. That makes this a perfect set up because Houston needed the bye but it was the last thing West Virginia wanted. Think about it too...why is a team that has won 4 straight laying just 3 points against a team that has gone 1-3 last 4 games and struggled in their Big 12 games? Don't fall for the trap here! The Cougars are hungry and at home and their coach will have them ready for this, perhaps, "do or die" game in the eyes of Holgorsen! 10* HOUSTON (+)

CFB Wednesday Sam Houston State Bearkats (+) @ New Mexico State Aggies @ 9 ET - Handicapping lesson 101. When you see a home team that is 3-3 laying only about a field goal to a team that is 0-5 on the season, it is time to take a close look. In this case, I would almost never play a favorite but would look at that winless dog. In this case, everything checks out for being worthy of a bet. I certainly respect coach Jerry Kill and his Aggies are decent, especially on defense. However, this Bearkats team has played the tougher overall schedule. There is a good reason this game is priced this way. Do not let the line fool you. The Bearkats nearly upset Liberty last week and they should have beaten Jacksonville State the week prior when they led by 8 with under 20 seconds to go! The point is that this team is much better than their 0-5 record would lead you to believe. The Bearkats have been double digit dogs in 4 of their 5 games so that tells you just how tough their schedule has been. Prior to a win over a bad FIU team last week in which the Aggies did not even pull away until the 4th quarter, New Mexico State was just 1-3 SU this season against FBS teams and Sam Houston has had just 1 home game this season while this will be the 4th home game this season for NM St. The point is that there is contrarian line value here with this 0-5 team that is catching 3 points plus the hook as of late morning game day. I am expecting an outright upset here but grabbing the points just in case. SAM HOUSTON STATE (+) 

CFB Tuesday Liberty Flames (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - Two weeks ago the Gamecocks pulled a rabbit out of the hat as -6.5 point favorites on the road at Sam Houston State. Ironically this line also is currently a 6.5 as of late morning Tuesday but this time Jacksonville State is on the other side of it as a home dog. I am laying the points with the road team here. The Gamecocks -6.5 were down 8 to the Bearkats but then scored a TD and 2 point conversion with just seconds left in regulation to force OT. They then got the ball first in OT and scored to take a 7 point lead and, you guessed it, Sam Houston could not answer. Was a miracle cover for the Gamecocks. Then last week they were down 23 to 7 at the half against Middle Tennessee State. Unbelievably Jacksonville State did it again. Not only rallying for the win they made it look even easier than it was as they won 45 to 30. All this has done is given us exceptional line value here because both those teams the Gamecocks beat are nowhere close to the level of this Liberty team. The Flames are undefeated this season and have the much better offense in comparison with the Gamecocks. I know Liberty did not dominate the Bearkats like they should have last week but they were up 21 to 10 at half and started looking ahead to this game. By the way, a few weeks ago Liberty caught FIU off an outright upset win at Connecticut. The Flames proceeded to blast Florida International in a 38 to 6 win. That makes Liberty 5-0 ATS when catching an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog! They now catch Jacksonville State in that same situation with the Gamecocks off an outright upset win at Middle Tennessee! Look for this system to improve to 6-0 ATS as J-St gets blasted! The Flames are on a 31-11 SU run at the FBS level while the Gamecocks are still quite new to this level of football. Do not let the line scare you. The road team should take this in a rout! Lay it! LIBERTY (-) 

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The current spread on this one is as low as 1.5 as of early game day morning or you also have the option of money line at -125. I am expecting a solid home win here. Why is 1-3 Vegas favored? Think about that for a moment. Yes, Green Bay is coming off a down season but Love has been playing quite well at QB for the Packers and they are a .500 team this season that are only a season removed from producing season after season of solid win totals. Herein lies the key, when a bad team is favored over a team that most would consider to be the better team, it is always for a reason. Of course nothing is fool-proof or 100% but I do like this situation and the line and there actually is a stat on this that is on a 100% ATS run. That is that when the Packers are a dog of 4.5 points or less but facing a team with a losing record, they are 0-7 ATS the last 7 times! Again, like I said above, LV is favored for a reason and yes I am backing a favorite that is only 1-3 SU this season! One thing that helps this week is Jimmy G will be back for the Raiders. They are at home off a loss and I am expecting a strong effort from the hosts here. Also, the Packers are visiting Las Vegas and have a bye week on deck. This is not an easy situation for Green Bay to remain focused. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a sloppy game from the Packers while the Raiders should be razor sharp with focus and also excited to have Jimmy G back under center for this one. Look for the aforementioned ATS trend to make it 8 WINNERS in a row! 10* Las Vegas (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The NFL is the most publicly bet sport worldwide. When public money is involved the public teams get more attention. There are many Cowboys fans out there and they love their 'Boys. That serves us well in cases like this. Take a look at this current line being very nearly just a field goal as of game day morning. That implies that on a neutral field this would be anybody's game. I completely disagree with that assessment. Dallas finally won a road playoff game last season for the first time in a very long time. The fact is the Cowboys often are great at hammering bad teams and inflating their stats in those games but then struggling against quality opponents. It has been this way for many years and has not really shown any signs of changing. Consider this also when assessing whether these teams are equal. Who would you rather have coaching your team? Shanahan or McCarthy? How about QB? Big-game mistake prone Prescott or up and coming Purdy who is off to a phenomenal start this season. The Niners are arguably the best run NFL organization. This team has done things the right way and is running a solid ship. Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great! The Niners are built to be a much better big-game team and, in fact, there is another key stat that supports that as well as supporting our play here. The Niners are 7-0 ATS in last 7 home games against an NFC opponent with a winning record. Keep in mind the 3-1 Cowboys have revenge here but they had that last year too when they faced the Niners in the playoffs after losing to them in the post-season before that too. Yes, that was the 2nd straight season that ended for Dallas in the post-season at San Francisco. Revenge is often over-played and the Cowboys could not get their revenge then and they will not get it now. Dallas overlooked Arizona two weeks ago and lost there. The Cowboys 3 wins are against teams that currently have a combined 3-9 record this season. At least the Niners have beaten a couple teams that have a .500 record so far this season plus they hammered the same Cardinals team the Cowboys overlooked. This is the difference of a well-run professional organization compared to a team that does not have the same leadership from top to bottom. This is a value line for the home team in my opinion. Lay it! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:05 ET - The Rams won the Super Bowl in February of 2022. Then they went 5-12 in the 2022 season that followed that. Which team is LA this season? Well it is still a little too early to tell for sure but Los Angeles certainly is not at the level of the Super Bowl team. I know Cooper Kupp is back this week for the Rams but he may not be performing at his typical elite level in his first game back. Both teams have some injury issues but Rams hip injuries to Matthew Stafford plus their starting RB could keep those guys from being as strong as usual. If you look at the week 1 stats when the Rams beat the Seahawks you will know that the result was not commensurate with the stats. Other than LA has two losses, including to a struggling Bengals team, and an OT win last week over the Colts in which the Rams blew a huge lead. I just do not think this Rams team is on the level this Eagles team is. Philly is on a mission to get back to the Super Bowl and to win it this time. They have a road game on deck in New York but against the Jets rather than the long-time rival (but struggling) Giants. That said, there is clearly no lookahead here and I expect a very focused Eagles team to come out and dominate in the trenches in this one. Yes I know Fletcher Cox is out for Philly but they have more defensive line depth than they use to. Eagles off an OT win versus Washington in which they gave up a late score to the Commanders that forced OT. That was only a 3-point win but 16 of 18 wins before that came by 5 or more points for the Eagles. In other words, if you like them to win here you can also see why you can feel comfortable laying the current number of 4 points too. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens -4.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - We get some line value here because the Steelers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings but this year Pittsburgh is way down in my opinion. I know they are 2-2 on the year but their stats tell the real story. The Steelers do not run or throw well. They also do not defend the pass well and do not stop the run. The Ravens have edges all over the field in this one. They also have revenge on their minds from losing the most recent meeting late last season. Remember that Lamar Jackson was hurt last season and missed BOTH meetings with the Steelers. Look for the  Pittsburgh defense to struggle with him in this one! The Ravens have great numbers on defense so far this season and big rushing numbers on offense. That is a combination that can win plenty of road games and especially when Harbaugh is your coach and your QB is healthy! The Steelers were very fortunate to beat the Browns (just look at the stats from that one) and their other win was against a dysfunctional Raiders team. Now they face a Ravens team with which coach Harbaugh has produced only one losing season in his 15-year tenure! Steelers QB Pickett expected to play but could be running for his life with this one and they are still without a starting WR plus now lost their starting TE to injury! 10* BALTIMORE -4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET in London, UK -Current line as of about 4 hours before kick-off is a 4.5 and this is a great value. Buffalo got their wake up call early this season as they already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders the next week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not looking back and certainly showing they are not done yet because they have now won 3 straight games and scored more than 35 points in each win! Buffalo did it again last week with a huge victory over Miami and the Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road in London. In fact, note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won eight in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. That trend continues here as Jacksonville is over-rated in my opinion. Yes they have an edge here in that they were already in London for this games as the knocked off the Falcons here last week. However, the yardage was roughly equal in that game and Atlanta actually had more first downs in the game but were done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. We get line value here because of the scheduling situation seeming to so strongly favor the Jags. I might argue that Jacksonville having now been in London for so long that it could even be a distraction for them in preparations for this game. Plus the Bills have been one of the top teams in the NFL in recent seasons. The Jaguars had some good fortune last season but this team is still not on the Bills level and that 8-0 ATS situation I mentioned above will turn into 9-0 ATS here! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - Kentucky just beat Florida and they are 5-0 SU this season and 4-0 ATS against FBS foes as their only non-cover was against an FCS school. Also, the Wildcats 4-0 ATS last 4 against Georgia. The Bulldogs enter this game 0-4-1 ATS on the season. So all of these perfect angles favor a play on the big dog Cats in this one and yet I am on the Dawgs! The fact is this line is 14.5 (as of game day morning) for a reason! Why would a game involving two ranked teams have one team laying more than 2 touchdowns? Exactly! The odds makers know what they are doing folks and I am expecting an absolute blowout home win here. Georgia has not been as impressive early this season and that is why they are still seeking first ATS win. However, this does not change the fact they are undefeated SU and national champs, etc. Also, the only team that Kentucky has faced this season that had a winning record last season was the FCS school Eastern Kentucky and they were only 7-5 this season. Yes beating Florida last week was big for the Wildcats but the Gators are not what they were a few years back. Also, Kentucky ran all over the Gators but the Bulldogs won't allow that here in their house. This will force the Wildcats to pass and their passing attack is still suspect. There are a number of injury concerns for Kentucky entering this one as well. So, analyzing all the variables here, I am fully expecting a blowout win and have no hesitation in facing the triple perfect trends ATS that are noted above. 10* GEORGIA (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UCLA Bruins vs Washington State Cougars @ 3 ET - This total has dropped a lot from the upper 60s where it once was. It is now as low as a 59 as of early gameday morning and I do understand the line move. UCLA is coming off a horrible effort on offense at Utah prior to their bye week AND the Bruins have a defense that ranks as one of the most efficient in the nation thus far. They have been stingy on opponents for sure but this is an early season key in evaluating stats and that is look at who UCLA has played. They finally faced a tough foe in Utah but the Utes were still without QB Cam Rising and have been playing very conservative without him. The Bruins other games were against an FSC school, a SBC team that is struggling early this season, and a Mountain West team known for struggling to score points! This UCLA defense is set up perfectly to get lit up by a very talented Washington State offense. Not only are the Cougars undefeated this season, their offense is now a different animal under Ben Arbuckle. He is their offensive coordinator after helping the Hilltoppers light it up last season in the same role at Western Kentucky. The Cougars are scoring an average of 46 points per game so far this season and off a high-scoring win over a tough Oregon State team before their bye last week. The Washington State defense is not strong and UCLA will bounce back at home as they had been scoring well prior to the trip to Utah and their young QB much more comfortable at home. So the Bruins get their points here but their defense is facing a tough offense for the first time this season and will be exposed as the Cougars pile up big points! I am expecting a back and forth shootout here! 10* OVER the total in UCLA

NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET @ Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas - Current line, as of about 6 hours before kick off is a solid 5.5 and this is a huge revenge game for the Sooners. I know revenge is overplayed but this is not just any revenge game. That's because these teams have been meeting for over 100 years! You read that right, they meet each other every year in the Red River Rivalry in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and this neutral site game is a big deal for these two schools. Before last year's shellacking, each of the most recent 4 meetings had been decided by 8 or less points. I expect another tighter game here in this year's match-up but sense an upset. We'll grab the points as added insurance but Oklahoma and Texas off to great starts this season but the Sooners - unlike in their first year under Venable last season - are a very confident bunch this time around. Texas won 49 to 0 last season! You read that right...49 to 0 and it was complete domination. Yes, Ewers has been great at QB for the Longhorns but Gabriel (missed last season's game due to injury) has also been fantastic this season for the Sooners. Gabriel will make up for missing last year's game and OU will make up for getting blown out. Texas has not won B2B games in the Red River Rivalry since 2008/2009 and that win in '09 was by just 3 points. The last time the Longhorns won B2B games in the RRR and would have covered a spread of 5.5 was when they won the 2005/2006 match-ups. So yes it has been over 15 years! I like the odds when you consider those facts and though I think UT deserves the hype they are getting early this season, I also feel that OU is on a mission this year and they are much better than the markets are giving them credit for here. Give me the big points! 10* OKLAHOMA (+) points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Illinois Illini (-) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I was on Nebraska earlier this season when they scored just 14 points at Colorado. Yes that is the over-hyped Buffaloes that are not very good defensively. In the Buffs other 4 games against teams not named Nebraska they allowed an average of 42 points per game! Again, the Cornhuskers put up a measly 14 points. Here lies the problem with this 2-3 Huskers team is that they only scored decently in two wins over two very bad teams. Louisiana Tech lost again last night and only had 3 wins in each of the last two seasons. Also, Northern Illinois is just 1-4 this season. Those are the Huskers two wins. In their other 3 games this season they have scored an average of just 10 points. Yes one of those games was Michigan (last week) but what the hell happened in the other games? Exactly! Not a whole helluva lot! I am not big on Illinois this year but they are home laying just 3.5 points (as of early game day morning) and this is as much a play against the Huskers as it is a play on the Illini. Note that Illinois has faced Penn State and Kansas this season and those two teams are a combined 9-1 on the year with the Jayhawks only loss coming to undefeated Texas. So the point is that the Illini might be a little better than their record shows and they are 2-1 in their other games. The Illini are coming off an ugly loss to Purdue on the scoreboard but the yardage in that game was about equal. The Illini will bounce back here at home and though Matt Rhule will eventually get things going at Nebraska it will take time. His first year at Temple he was 2-10 SU and his first year at Baylor he was 1-11 SU. This is his first year at Nebraska and he has 2 wins so far but against very bad teams and when you look at his remaining schedule it will be tough to get wins for sure. Unlike Rhule, Brett Bielema is in his 3rd year at Illinois and the Illini had gone 2-6 the covid year before he got here and then went 5-7 and then 8-4 last season. So the Bielema project is much further along than the Rhule project at this point in time. Also, taking a look at the Illini, again their other 2 losses this season they were a dog and those 2 teams they lost to are a combined 9-1 this season. The loss to Purdue is the one outlier for Illinois and that just happened. Teams often bounce back off embarrassing losses like that and I expect the Illini will do just that here. 10* ILLINOIS (-)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6 @ Washington Commanders @ 8:15 ET - Both teams off tough losses last week but the Commanders was even tougher the way I see it. They lost in OT at Philly and that is a divisional match-up for Washington and was a physical battle that took a lot out of them. The Bears, on the other hand, are coming off a non-conference battle versus the Broncos. Though it is still sickening to Chicago that they blew a huge lead against Denver and lost, I also think they will be better set physically and mentally for this match-up at DC. Note that Chicago has lost 14 straight games SU and is on the road here yet getting less than TD. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about purported "odds maker mistakes" and this is particularly true in the NFL. In other words, grab the points with the team on a 14-game losing streak. Chicago is 0-6 ATS last 6 road games but the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in Commanders games this season. The latter of those two trends is the one I see continuing here. The Bears dominated their game statistically but were done in by turnovers last week. Conversely, Washington was outgained by Philly and keep in mind that even includes all the yardage the Commanders picked up at the end of regulation with a game-tying drive when Eagles went in to prevent defense. I like the fact the Bears showed improvement on both sides of the ball last week and they will build off that here and actually have a good shot at finally getting back into the win column. At the very least, they get the road cover here the way I see it! 10* CHICAGO +6

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -6 @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 8 ET - One could argue that Louisiana Tech's best player on offense is QB Hank Bachmeier. He might be out again this week but even if he does play he will not be 100% due to shoulder injury. One could also argue that the Bulldogs best player on defense is senior linebacker Brevin Randle and he will not play in this game as he has been suspended for a head stomp in the win at UTEP. Louisiana Tech was actually outgained by the Miners in that victory and UTEP is not a good football team. Yes the Hilltoppers overall stats are not great this season but they also played Ohio State and, as expected, were thoroughly dominated by the Buckeyes. That is certainly impacting their stats. Keep in mind, they went 3-1 SU in their other 4 games and the lone WKU loss was by just 3 points while each of the 3 wins was by a margin of at least 17 points! Louisiana Tech's only other FBS win, besides the unimpressive win over UTEP last week, was a 5-point win over a bad FIU team. The Bulldogs have 3 losses this season and 2 of those have been by at least 14 points and I expect this one will be too! QB Austin Reed is solid for the Toppers and he is the healthier of the QBs here and overall the road favorite has big edges over a home dog that is simply a bad football team. They have won just 3 games each of the past two seasons and their win at UTEP last week was their first road win in 17 tries dating back to the 2020 season. Yes they are now back home for this one but a streak of 16 straight road losses prior to last week shows just how bad this team really is. I like the road team to get the win here and love the fact the line has dropped down some and is below a TD. The value is with the road favorite against a wounded home dog dealing with some issues on both sides of the ball. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY -6

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 8 ET - This line is around a 3.5 as of very early gameday morning and I am expecting a solid win and cover for MTSU here. They are at home and coming off a turnover-fueled loss at Western Kentucky last week. The game against WKU is a big one for the Blue Raiders and so I did some research on this and they have lost a few in a row when facing the Hilltoppers and the result has been a big bounce back effort the following week. In fact, MTSU is now a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times when off a game against Western Kentucky. Look for that trend to continue here as they catch Jacksonville State off a last-gasp fortunate win and cover at Sam Houston. They rallied late against the Bearkats for a game-tying touchdown with the necessary two point conversion as well! Then the Gamecocks got the win in overtime. Not only that, this big comeback OT win was on the road. I feel that will have taken a lot out of Jacksonville State and they did give up 300 yards of passing offense to a Sam Houston team that had been very weak on offense this season. Now the Gamecocks face a Middle Tennessee State team angry off a loss and, keep in mind, turnovers played a key role in that defeat at Western Kentucky! MTSU has faced the much tougher schedule and that is offering huge line value here! Trust me, there is a reason this 1-4 Blue Raiders team is favored over this 4-1 Jacksonville State team and the line is no mistake! Lay it! 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Under head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants have been strong off a loss. They won at Arizona in Week 2 after ugly home loss to Dallas the week before. Now, off an ugly road loss against a strong 49ers team, the Giants are at home and ready to respond. Not only are they 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday night game, they also went 4-0 ATS last season when they were at home and coming off a loss. That means that, under coach Daboll, the Giants are a perfect 4-0 ATS when at home and off a loss. I know they are 1-2 SU this season and have some ugly stats but, keep in mind, the Giants two losses were to a pair of the best teams in the NFL and the Cowboys and Niners are now a combined 7-1 SU on the season. Yes, the Seahawks are 2-1 SU this season but 2 of their 3 games have been against teams that are combined 2-6 SU on the season! Early in the season you can get some extra line value based on early market perception influenced by a lack of factoring for the schedules. By the way, so far this season, the Chiefs and Eagles failed to cover on the Thursday night games and each covered their very next game. Look for the Giants, after the ATS beatdown at San Francisco, to continue that trend. I love the fact that the Giants have yet to get an ATS cover this season as that has led to line value here. We step in and take advantage. The Seahawks are off B2B covers but this followed a 1-9 ATS stretch dating back to last season and I feel Seattle is very over-valued here on the road. The Giants have the rest edge here. Again, consider the strength of schedule too. The Seahawks have faced 3 non-playoff teams from last season that went a combined 21-30 SU. The Giants have a win in the game they were supposed to win and a pair of losses in games against teams that went, including post-season, a combined 28-11 SU last season and are also now 7-1 SU this season so far. The home dog is the play here and, though 1.5 is the dominant number, there is some 2 out there as well. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS + points

NFL Sunday 10* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - I am not a big fan of laying big points in the NFL but this Jets team is really bad right now. Currently this line is in the 8.5 range but there is some 8 out there and I am expecting a double digit road win here. Even though the NYJ defense can be solid and will do their best here, this offense just can not be trusted at all. They have been so bad as many are questioning the entire QB situation of course ever since Rodgers went down with injury right away in week 1. That game in week 1 was a bit of a miracle win for New York and now reality has quickly set in. The same holds true for the Chiefs. They had a shocking loss in week 1 but their reality has set in now as they are off B2B wins and really dominated the Bears last week. I know it was just "da Bears" but the defending champs are a confident group that really has their offense clicking now on all cylinders. The Jets had 171 yards last week and the Chiefs had over 450 yards of offense last week. This will be a blowout. KC will have some extra focus here and will really bring an A game effort here. Even though they are the defending champs, the primetime games still carry extra weight. Having lost the first one this season is something the Chiefs have not forgotten and they want to make amends for that right here right now in New York. I look for them to do just that. The last 6 times on MNF that they were facing a team off a SU loss they showed no mercy to say the least. KC went 6-0 ATS in that situation and they do it again here as the Jets struggles on offense will be the key culprit here. 10* KANSAS CITY (-) points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - When you look at the point totals that the Raiders have put up, it is not a big surprise that this total has dropped some and is down to a 48 as of early gameday morning. However, all this means for us is even more value with an over that should get well into the 50s. The Chargers defense has had some struggles and so too has the LV defense. Also, the Raiders have moved the ball better than their point totals show as they also have been hurt by turnovers. As for Los Angeles, their offense has been great so far this season and they are favored by nearly a touchdown here with good reason! So if Las Vegas just gets into the 21 range and the odds makers are right about this line, you already have a game that is in the upper 40s. The fact is the Chargers have allowed an average of 29 points per game this season and never allowed less than 24. The Raiders have allowed 30.5 the past two weeks and their defensive numbers were only better last week because of facing a Steelers team that has an anemic offense. The Raiders defense will get lit up here but look for them to also have success against a Chargers defense that is dead last in pass defense so far this season. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +9 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - First off some technical stuff here. The Commanders just got throttled at home by the Bills last week - we were on Buffalo in easy win - but Washington is in a perfect 7-0 ATS spot here. Generally I like decent teams off horrible losses and the Commanders have a great divisional angle here. When they are playing a divisional foe and Washington is off a double digit ATS loss and the team they are playing is on a winning streak of at least 2 games plus playing with revenge, the Commanders have covered 7 times in a row. Sometimes revenge is overplayed and I know Washington won at Philly the last time these teams met and it ended the Eagles unbeaten start to last season. That said, Philly wants this game but they are on short rest off a MNF Game plus still have been dealing with some injury issues. I am not saying they won't get revenge and at least win this game but I think asking them to win this by double digits is asking too much. Eagles are 3-0 this season but statistically have not been that dominant. They will look to pound the ground game and grind out a win here but Washington has enough firepower to keep this one close. The last 5 times Philly entered a game off a SU road win they have gone 3-2 SU but all 3 wins were by 7 or less points. I look for a very tight game here as the Commanders respond off an embarrassing loss. Look for the above trend I mentioned to improve to 8-0 ATS as the dog gets the cover here. 10* WASHINGTON +9

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET - The dominant number as of about 5 hours before kickoff on this one is a 3 but there is some 3.5 out there and I would recommend jumping on that now if you can. The Jaguars are off B2B losses and the Falcons have the better defense and are off their first loss of the season. I could see Atlanta bouncing back huge here off a defeat in which they scored just 6 points. They will take advantage of a weak Jaguars defense. Much is made of the travel here and that Jacksonville is use to it and the Falcons are not - in terms of London games. But to put this in proper perspective, the USA is so big that went teams go East to West they are sometimes traveling 5 to 6 hours in the air just to get to the West Coast and it is a 3-hour time difference to adjust the body clocks. The point is that going Atlanta to London is about 7 hours in the air on a non-stop flight and when you land there it is a 5-hour difference on the body clock. So the point is that going to London for an NFL team in the Eastern Time Zone is not much different than going to a West Coast NFL city. Speaking from experience as I live in Europe right now, the travel going back to USA is tougher for sure. It is longer and more difficult to adjust the body clocks. That said Jaguars being used to this trip is not relevant in my book. Both teams coming off ugly losses and I trust the better defense getting points! Very quietly these Falcons have allowed an average of only 18 ppg their last 9 games as they finished last season strong too on the defensive side of the ball. The Jaguars have a long-term history of struggles against NFC opposition and, within that, they have actually lost 10 in a row ATS when facing a team from NFC South. I look for that play-against situation to reach 11-0 ATS here as Falcons have great shot at outright win but should at least get the cover. 10* ATLANTA + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Texas State Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Golden Eagles and Bobcats both have gotten their run games going. What that does is further open up the passing game options. Both teams have piled up big yardage recently and it will continue here. I like Texas State to score well as their offense has been clicking as one of the most efficient in FBS so far this season. Also, they are facing a Golden Eagles defense that has been one of the least efficient in the FBS so far this season. But do factor in that Southern Miss is at home here and they got their offense really going last week so they are confident and at home and should move the ball well here. However, the Bobcats will look to keep the hammer down on the road and they have truly been ultra impressive so far this season and I love the fact this total was in the 60s but has dropped to the upper 50s. I feel this has given us fantastic extra value in this spot and I won't hesitate in recommending this play as my top total today on Saturday. Other than a low-scoring loss at UTSA, Texas State has seen their other 3 games average 78 total points per game! Again the posted total here is about 20 points less than that number. Southern Mississippi has seen 2 of their last 3 games total at least 79 points. After such an ugly performance at home in their recent loss to Tulane, the Golden Eagles will bring a supreme effort here at home and I look for them to move the ball well on a suspect Bobcats defense. However, this Texas State is sure to pile up the points here as well. 10* OVER the total in Southern Mississippi

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) vs Central Florida @ 3:30 ET - Current line is in the 9 or 9.5 range here and I am going to challenge the big favorite to win this by double digits. Baylor is expected to Shapen back at QB for this one while Central Florida is still without Plumlee. I know the Bears are 1-3 this season but their 3 losses this season were to an improved Texas State team and to Utah and Texas! These are all solid teams that entered this week's action with a combined 11-1 record on the season! I don't think Baylor is what they use to be BUT they are also much better than their record shows and Shapen is a very strong QB that will give this team a huge boost this week. UCF is also not what they use to be and, though they have been surviving without Plumlee in recent weeks they will struggle more without him in a tougher game like this. The Bears feel their backs are to the wall and they get their starting QB back and there is a feeling of "now or never" for Baylor. I think they will come out strong and this Knights team is not what they use to be. UCF is 3-1 this season but 2 of the wins against FCS schools and one of those was against Boise State and the Broncos are not as strong as in the past. Also, coming off a loss against Kansas State last week that ended their unbeaten start to the season, the Knights may be thinking they just come home and all is well again because they are in the Bounce House. However, this Bears team is going to come to play and an outright win would not surprise me. At the very least I expect the road dog to lose this one by only a one score margin if they even lose. 10* BAYLOR (+) points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Northwestern Wildcats vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - This is a great spot for plenty of points and this total is in the 46.5 to 47 range. I know the Nittany Lions defense has been great but this is an ideal flat spot for the D. They are off B2B wins in Big Ten action but they won at Illinois and then hammered Iowa last week. The Hawkeyes offense is anemic and the Illini offense has averaged just 19.7 points per game the last 3 games. Penn State has a bye week on deck and then Massachusetts next. So off 2 big wins in conference action and then able to coast a bit after this the Nittany Lions could start their coasting a bit a week early. The Wildcats rallied from a 31-10 deficit last week for the win over Minnesota in OT. That huge 4th quarter comeback and big OT win means their confidence is surging heading into this home match-up with PSU. They will not be able to stop this solid Lions offense but don't be surprised if they score plenty here too. This one will surprise some folks because Penn State is certainly a deserved huge favorite for a reason but the Wildcats can score well here as Lions defensive intensity will falter here a bit. They are already looking ahead to the bye week and that win over the Hawkeyes was a big one for them last week. The Cats have scored at least 31 in each home game this season and they will not get that here but the point is, especially with good weather, they will score well here. 10* OVER the total in Northwestern

CFB Friday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 10:15 ET - I like the underdog line value after the line move. This line has swung toward the Bearcats and currently we can get home dog BYU at +1 or +1.5 as of very early gameday morning. The fact is that Cincinnati had a lot of coaching changes heading into the season and even the assistant coaches that Scott Satterfield had ended up taking "better" opportunities elsewhere. Of course former head coach Luke Fickell moved onto Wisconsin. The point is that this one, for me, is as much a play against Cincy as it is a play on BYU. This is a tough spot for the Bearcats the way I see it. Yes they knew that beating Oklahoma last week was a lot to ask and sure enough they lost by two TDs. Still, the Cats did want that home game badly and now they are traveling on the road on a short week and in the thin air of Provo in Utah. This Brigham Young team is off a loss but they faced a tough Kansas team that is now 4-0 on the season. The Jayhawks are a different team under head coach Lance Leipold and there is no real shame in that loss for BYU. Still, that was the first loss of the Cougars on the season and I look for them to bounce back here at home and though the competition was weaker it is still worth noting something here. Brigham Young won first two home games this season by a combined score of 55 to 16 and they will make the most of this spot as it is their first home game in 3 weeks. Both teams have a bye on deck but I like the fact Bearcats are on the road here. Cougars will take advantage. The Cats lost at home to Miami-Ohio which is bad news for sure about the current state of this program. The fact that is their only ATS loss in 4 games this season while BYU is 1-3 ATS this season is also helping to give us line value here. Lets take advantage. 10* BYU + points

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - This total has mostly held at 46 but is starting to drop to 45.5 at the time of this posting Thursday morning. The Lions caught the Falcons last week off a tight win over, ironically, these same Packers. It was Atlanta's first road game of the season and the perfect spot for the Falcons offense to fall flat and they did just that. Sure some credit is due the Lions defense but lets not forget the week 1 win over KC saw the Chiefs, like a lot of teams, struggle on offense. Detroit then gave up plenty in the 37-31 OT loss to Seattle. I do like the Lions offense so far this season but am not yet sold on the defense. That said, the Packers should move the ball well here. They have really played well with Jordan Love at QB. Keep in mind in limited action last season he also played well behind long-time Packer Aaron Rodgers - now with the Jets but out with injury. The point is that Love is finally getting his opportunity and he is making the most of it. Now he can build momentum off a come-from-behind win last week. GB got that key win after a very slow start and lets not forget the Pack averaged 31 points in the first two games this season. So the point is that both teams are off lower-scoring games last week but these offenses showed what they could do the first two weeks this season. Considering the low-scoring trend of primetime NFL action this season are you surprised the odds makers have this total set in the mid-40s? Trust me it is not a mistake and the books are honestly expecting the same thing I am here and I am looking for 50+ in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:30 ET - The dominant line here as of early game day morning is 6.5 but there is some 6 out there and I am laying it. I am going to start here by talking about Colorado State which may surprise you but it is with good reason. What does Colorado State have to do with this game? Plenty! The Rams had the memorable devastating double-OT loss to Colorado two weeks ago. They never should have blown the big lead and lost that game and it was heartbreaking. Following the gut-wrenching loss they were going on the road to Middle Tennessee State. Situations from the scheduling gods don't get much better than that for the Blue Raiders. They were catching a team playing B2B games away from home and they were catching them off a soul-crushing loss. How did MTSU handle it? Like the very weak team they are. The Blue Raiders lost outright even though they were favored in that one. Now they face a Western Kentucky team that has dominated them in recent meetings and also comes in angry off B2B losses. The Hilltoppers are going to roll here at home. Not only have they won big in the last two meetings, they are also on a 6-0 ATS run in weeknight home games. You know the Toppers are fired up with this primetime weeknight opportunity on their home field and they will pull away as this one goes along! WKU improves to 7-0 ATS in this spot! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:15 ET - The current dominant number on this one is 5 though you might find a stray 4.5 out there - at least as of very early game day morning. This is a battle of early season unbeatens and the Eagles have started at least 3-0 (last season started 8-0), 3 times in the past 9 seasons. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has not gone 3-0 in nearly TWO decades as you have to go all the way back to 2005. The Bucs have been around since 1976 - nearly a HALF century - and yet they only have started a season 3-0 THREE times! As you can see with historical odds like this, the Eagles certainly are the likely team to win this SU but what about the all-important cover? Well, Philly has 9 straight wins by 5 or more points and 15 of last 17 by 5 or more points. So 5 may not seem like a key number but it has been for the Eagles and, either way, look for a win by at least a TD in this one. Tampa Bay's last 7 SU losses have all come by 6 or more. The Eagles are so strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will be key here. Also, imagine you are starting a team would you rather have Jalen Hurts at QB or Baker Mayfield? That is no disrespect to the latter but I have a feeling he is going to get a reality check this week against a tough Eagles defensive line that will pressure the hell out of him. Also, Sirianni is now 25-11 SU in regular season NFL as a head coach while Bowles is 36-50 SU as a head coach. The Eagles also have the rest edge after playing on Thursday last week so they have had extra time off compared to TB as the Bucs beat the Bears Sunday. The Eagles and Buccaneers have each played the Vikings this season. The Bucs were outgained 369 to 242 by Minny. Philly outgained Minnesota 430 to 374. In other words, the D numbers were similar but the Eagles offense put up nearly 200 yards more than TB. The Bucs are a decent team but they are over-rated right now. Philly is a Super Bowl contender. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) the points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the Steelers than a play on the Raiders but either way I do like this spot for laying the points with Las Vegas. The line is available at a 2.5 as of early game day morning and the Steelers are on a short week and traveling west and their off a key divisional win. They were heavily outgained by the Browns and so it is a deceiving win for the Black and Gold. This Pittsburgh team is just not that good as I have written before about them heading into this season. The Steelers have been continuing a downward trajectory and I faded them when they were destroyed by the Niners in Week 1. I know that they got the win last week but that was a gift-wrapped game from the Browns and the stats show that Pittsburgh has really struggled early this season. The Raiders are off an ugly loss but they faced an angry Bills team that is one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo was playing its home opener and was off a loss and the Raiders were in the wrong place at the wrong time. From the start of the season until October 9th, this is the only home game for Las Vegas and so they will make the most of this home opener. Also, under coach McDaniels they covered five of six times ATS when facing a team that was off a SU/ATS win like the Steelers are here. Pittsburgh started last season 1-4 and the year before 1-3 and Tomlin is in for another slow start this season and they will not be so lucky again this week like they were hosting Cleveland. First road game of the season for the Steelers and the Raiders have the rest edge and situational edge and roll huge at home. 10* LAS VEGAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - There are multiple ways to analyze this game, just like any game really of course. But I do feel my angle on this is the right one. This total is around a 43 as of early gameday morning and I feel strongly that it will prove to be far too low. I think Dallas could be a little flat defensively here. They played great in the divisional win at the Giants in Week 1. Then, in week 2, they played great in their home opener. Those were 2 very big, important match-ups. Now this week they have a non-divisional road game against a team projected to be one of the worst in the NFL. Do you really think the intensity level of the Cowboys defense is going to the be the same it was for a season opener against a division rival followed by a home opener? Me neither! At the same time however, the offense was not that good in week 1 as Prescott and everyone was rusty. They looked much better in week 2 and Prescott and company want to keep building on that here and they will take advantage of a very bad Cardinals defense here! As for the Arizona offense, they have been respectable early this season and, keep in mind, the Cowboys defense faced a Giants offense that has now been horrible in 2 of 3 games this season and a Jets offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers to injury before they ever arrived in Dallas for that week 2 match-up. The Cardinals had nearly 400 yards of offense last week and I feel certain they will move the ball well here at home against a bit of a disinterested Cowboys D that will come in underestimating this team. At the same time, this weak Cards D has no chance of stopping a Dallas offense that is hell-bent on showing improvement with Prescott and Co on a mission early this season to prove the doubters wrong. 4 straight meetings and 6 of the last 7 between these clubs have totaled at least 45 points and this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - Look around the league at undefeated teams after just 2 weeks of the seasons and one of the surprises is Washington. That is helping give us some value this week because this team is not that good and it is an undefeated team that deserves to be faded now. Adding to the value is the fact that Bills are just 1-1 this season. Buffalo already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders last week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not done yet because now the mantra is to prove they can win on the road. The Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road. Also, there are triple perfect angles supporting this play. Note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won six in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. They will carry momentum here! As for Commanders coach Ron Rivera he has not fared well when his team has at least a .500 record on the season and his team is installed as an underdog as his teams have lost seven in a row ATS in that situation. Also, the Commanders have a divisional foe on deck in the form of the Eagles and they have lost four (or five depending on line) in a row ATS when Philadelphia is up next for them. All this is just situational data but the fact is it further supports our play here. Buffalo has been one of the top teams in the league in recent seasons while these Commanders have not had a winning season since the 2016 season. This line is around a 5 as of early gameday morning and this is in an excellent value. 10* BUFFALO (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Huskies vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET - This total has dropped quite a bit from the opener and is in the 57 range as of early gameday morning. I feel we have excellent line value here as too much respect is being given to some defensive stats each team has but take a look at some of the offensive production. Cal is averaging 80 plays per game on offense and that rates as one of the highest rates in the nation. Washington rates as the most efficient team in the nation as their yards per play average is nearly 10 yards! Keep in mind, that is an average of nearly getting a first down with every snap. The Huskies are very dangerous and strong offensively and it looks like only light winds and light rain in the forecast for Husky Stadium Saturday night in Seattle. Keep in mind, the Huskies have scored more than 40 in every game this season and it is not like they faced FCS foes! The Golden Bears faced a tough defense when they faced Auburn but they woke up to score 31 points last week in the 2nd half against an FCS foe. In other words, had they also been awake for the first half one could logically say they would have scored 62 points! They did score 58 points in their first game and that was against an FBS foe as they faced North Texas. The point is that both teams are confident right now yet the Huskies favored by 3 TDS for a reason. Lets say the odds makers are right about this line. If Cal scores just 20 points but the line is correct at 3 TDs then a 41-20 final puts this game into the 60s. I feel we have excellent value here because this Huskies offense is running like a well-oiled machine so far but Cal can move the ball as well. The Golden Bears offense looks better than it has in the past and they have scored at least 20 in each of last 3 meetings with Huskies. This one gets into the 60s the way I see it! 10* OVER the total in Washington

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7:30 ET - It is impossible to forecast the exact timing of the rain but showers followed by heavy rain and some wind - not too windy but possible gusts - are moving into the area because of Tropical Storm Opheila. State College, PA is over 200 miles away the ocean but the fact is those bands of rain are coming deep inland and I love having big points with an underdog when conditions are a little bit sloppy. This is particularly true when it is a defensive-minded dog that likes to run the football. I know that the Nittany Lions have a great record so far and have looked good but they benefited firstly from rather easy opponents then first two weeks - dysfunctional West Virginia team and an FCS team (Delaware) - and then secondly from Illinois turning the ball over 5 times against them last week! Penn State is a rock solid team and I really like their QB too. They have the definite aerial attack edge in this match-up but you can tell by the low total posted on this game, this one is expected to be a low-scoring defensive-minded rush-oriented match-up. This Hawkeyes team has a very tough defense and they are well-coached. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the nation and has been here for a quarter-century now! The Hawkeyes have won the the last two meetings outright and, while I am not anticipating that here, I am expecting this one to be decided by a one-score margin. That means excellent line value with Iowa available at +14.5 and no less than +14 as of early gameday morning. We'll take it! 10* IOWA + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3:30 ET - This line has been all over the place because of the uncertain status of QB Cameron Rising for the Utes. Let me tell you what we do know about this match-up. Kyle Whittingham is a better coach than Chip Kelly. The UCLA young quarterback has played well but makes his first ever PAC-12 road start. The Bruins are playing right into the teeth of revenge as UCLA won a tight one (though double digit final margin of 10) over Utah last season. That was the 1st win in 4 tries for Kelly with the Bruins against Whittingham with the Utes. The first 3 meetings...how did those go? Utah won all 3 by at least 20 each team and with an average margin of victory at 32 points! There is nothing average about that and the Utes defense got embarrassed last season at UCLA. That is where one of the biggest keys lies in this rematch. Everyone is talking about QB Rising and the fact he may miss again but the Utes offense has still been decent and they still have the better defense in this match-up plus they are at home and plus this Utah defense wants to prove that last season was an aberration. A lot of key factors including a solid low number here (3.5 as of early gameday morning) have me all over the Utes in this one! 10* UTAH (-) points

Friday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 53.5 in Purdue Boilermakers vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - I am going to take advantage of a low total here. This total is based more on long-term reputation of the Badgers defense but this Wisconsin defense is just not what it once was. Even Georgia Southern threw all over them last week and would have had a lot more points were it not for turnovers. The week before the Badgers allowed 31 at Washington State. The Badgers have scored at least 35 points in both their wins this season and they are favored here for a reason. However, the fact that Purdue has a solid passing game, led by a former UT QB (Card) whom I liked quite a bit there, means that the Boilermakers should turn this into a back and forth high-scoring affair. The Boilers have a solid passing attack but, like the Badgers, they have had some issues on defense. They are allowing about 400 yards per game and they allowed at least 35 in each of their two losses. It will be very nice weather for an over in West Lafayette, IN tonight as well. Light winds and very mild temperatures. Last season these teams totaled 59 points in their meeting and the defenses were better then than they are now. The Badgers offense will continue to get a little better week by week as they have a new head coach in Luke Fickell this season. Wisconsin has averaged scoring 39 points in last 4 meetings with Boilers. Again, the issue is the Badgers defense is not a typical Wiscy defense and we take advantage just as the Boilermakers passing attack will as well! 10* OVER 53.5 in Purdue

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Laying double digits in the NFL is always a scary proposition in my book and the situation becomes even tougher on a short week. That's because a lot of things have to go right to beat any NFL team by double digits. That is why you don't see many double digit lines in the NFL. Being fully prepared to blowout a team is even tougher when playing on a Thursday after a Sunday win over a divisional foe. SF has failed to cover 6 of last 7 on Thursday when coming off a SU win in their prior game. This line is a solid 10.5 at the time of this posting and I feel we have excellent value with the big road dog in this one. Everyone is still thinking about the Giants losing to Dallas 40 to 0 in Week 1 primetime but are forgetting that the Cowboys only had 265 yards of TOTAL offense in that game! To put that in proper perspective, this 49ers team (which certainly is strong and has a solid defense too) allowed 297 PASSING yards to the Rams in their win last week! So lets not bury the Giants just yet in comparison to the Niners. The Giants got caught still lamenting the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys when they were down by 21 midway through the 3rd quarter at Arizona last week. However, the Giants rally did two things last week. It gave them a win of course, which is big, but the bigger thing it did was give them confidence. This Giants team feels much different now emotionally and mentally heading into this battle with the Niners and they have done very well as a road dog under HC Brian Daboll as they went 8-2 ATS in that role last season. I know Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants here but guess who Matt Breida started his career with? San Francisco of course! Watch Breida have a huge game against his former team and the Giants surprise in this one! I am not saying they win this one outright but I am feeling confident in a game decided by a one score margin. Give me the double digits here! Daboll will have his team ready and he was Coach of the Year last season and will not be embarrassed again on primetime like they were in that sloppy week one loss to the Cowboys. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina (-) vs Georgia State @ 7:30 ET - This series has been dominated by the road team recently and, in my opinion, that is keeping the line (6.5 at time of this posting) on this one lower than it should be. Coastal Carolina is really rolling under their new coach after all the changes made after last season's last collapse. I like this Chanticleers team. I am not crazy about their defense but they have enough offense to dominate in this one. Keep in mind, new head coach Tim Beck was offensive coordinator at NC State and he has this offense firing on all cylinders now. They have played the tougher schedule than Georgia State thus far. The Chanticleers had to face the Bruins at UCLA and having that one really tough game and a SU loss helps them here. Georgia State is 3-0 SU but has not really been challenged yet. The Chanticleers are 3-0 ATS this season as they did cover in that SU loss at UCLA. The Panthers have been allowing more points than Coastal Carolina and CC has the stronger offense too. Combining all that with the home field edge, the play here is the home team as laying less than a TD is a real bargain here and the current line is 6.5 on this one at time of posting. The Chanticleers are 100% ATS this season and I am happy to test that here. Look for 4-0 ATS after this one goes in the books! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This total has been adjusted down to 38 and is just too low in my opinion. The Steelers got dominated last week but that was a solid 49ers defense they faced. Now they catch the Browns off a dominating divisional win. Yes, the Cleveland defense looked great last week but did you see the Bengals offense again yesterday at home against the Ravens? This Cincinnati team has issues on offense and so I expect the Steelers to do much better on offense at home against a Browns defense that is solid but a bit over-rated already early this season. Pittsburgh did move the ball last week against that strong 49ers team but they just couldn't get much going down the field. They will find more openings here against a Browns team that has given up at least 22 points in 21 of 27 road games (including post-season) under Stefanski. That includes an average of 32 points in 4 road games at Pittsburgh. The Browns defense will be tested here but part of the reason I faded the Steelers last week (and won with SF) is because I do not trust this Pittsburgh defense. Sure enough they gave up nearly 400 yards and the damage might have been worse were it not such a blowout in which the Niners were able to stop pushing much on offense. I look for Cleveland to move the ball well here too just like SF did and with this being more of a back and forth game, the Browns will not back down and with having such a bad history here in regular season games, I know Cleveland will keep pushing hard for the win. Game could go either way late in terms of the SU winner but, in terms of the total, this should get well into the 40s in a back and forth battle with good weather in PA for this one too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh 

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers + vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:15 ET - Dennis Allen is head coach of the Saints. With the win he got last week, his NFL career head coaching record is 14-38. That is not a mistype. 14-38 is his career record. I know the Saints could win this division this season but the NFC South is truly a bit of an up for grabs type of division these days so that is not saying much. I personally think even the Panthers could ultimately challenge. Frank Reich was offensive coordinator of the Eagles when they beat the mighty Patriots in Feb of 2018. He then went to be head coach of the Colts and had a 40-33 record with them including taking them to the playoffs twice. His record is not fantastic but Reich has a leg up on Allen when it comes to head coaching edge in this match-up the way I see it. I know the Saints have the more established QB now and the Panthers were done in by turnovers last week but they will be better here at home in week 2. Also, they actually outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in that week 1 loss. That is the same Atlanta team that beat GB yesterday and though that win was by just as single point, the Falcons actually outgained the Packers by 200 yards and actually only punted ONCE the entire game! That is domination and the points is that the way the Panthers defense played in week one looks even more impressive now as the Falcons are 2-0 and flying high on offense. The offense of Carolina will be better this week and Reich's background is offense. So the key here is this is a solid defense that can contain the Saints offense. New Orleans benefitted from turnovers in their week 1 win so this is another point of value here in evaluating week 2 match-ups. Now with this line at a solid +3 and you might even find some 3.5 starting to show up, this is an excellent home dog spot. The Panthers were 4-0 ATS in home games last season when coming off a road loss in their prior game. They respond at home here and I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points just in case. 10* CAROLINA +

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots + vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The dominant number as of early game day morning is 2.5 but there is a little bit of 3 out there. Either way I am looking for an outright win here for the home team but it is nice any time you have a line that sets up where a 2 point loss is still a win as well and that is the case here. First off, I like the home dog factor here. Secondly, I like the fact the Patriots fell short against the Eagles despite outgaining them last week. Did you see how Philly than ran all over the Vikings Thursday? Give this Patriots defense some credit for holding Philly in check last week! As for the Dolphins, they are off a shootout win and I love fading teams off high-scoring wins like that. The fact Miami snuck away with the victory over the Chargers even though they gave up a pile of points and big yardage set this one up well. The Dolphins may not fully realize how much they need to focus on the defensive side of the field for this one. They come in 1-0 but off an effort in which they allowed 34 points plus huge yardage on the ground. After playing in LA last week the Dolphins now go coast to coast for this one and the Pats threw for over 300 yards last week. I know Miami piled up yardage too but their D is a weakness. I trust NE to get some stops here and the Pats offense will be able to move the ball all game long. They threw well against Philly plus the Dolphins proved last week they are susceptible on the ground so the Patriots should enjoy plenty of success here on offense and I expect the defense to hold up. 10* NEW ENGLAND + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this as of early gameday morning is 8.5 and this an over-reaction to the Cowboys 40-0 win last week and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers to season-ending injury. Keep in mind, Dallas actually only won the yardage battle by 94 yards last week. That does not equate to a 40-point beatdown of course. That is not much of a yardage edge. The Jets have a very strong defense that can also create havoc and turnovers as the Cowboys did last week. In fact, the Jets proved that with their upset of Buffalo in OT Monday night. I know this is a short week for the Jets but it is still early in the season and you are still talking about fresh bodies that are in much less banged up than as the season goes on. Later in the season, short rest is more of a factor. The Cowboys were originally around a FG favorite in this game. Now they are favored by more than a TD. Take advantage of the line value here. The Cowboys are actually 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they are at home and coming off a game in which they scored 40 or more points! Look for Dallas, known to stumble at home in spots like this, to come in overconfident after last week's big road win over a division rival. Conversely, the Jets are well aware of the blowout win that the Cowboys just delivered in their own stadium (the stadium they share with the Giants) and they will be geared up and well prepared for the upset win here. Their defense will really test Prescott in this one just like they did against the Bills Allen. They may not get the outright upset but I expect this game to be decided by a one score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens + @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - As of early Sunday morning there is still some 3.5 available on this one and even if TE Andrews does not play for Baltimore I do expect them to get the cover in this match-up. Looking for an outright win but we will grab the points just in case. I am aware of RB Dobbins now out for the year for Baltimore. However, have you seen the different running backs the Eagles are using this year and how they ran all over Minnesota Thursday night. The point is that if a team has the right play-calling, a solid offensive line, and is well-coached they get their ground game going no matter who the running backs are. Of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is also an ultra-dangerous threat with his legs too and keeps defenses honest. He was not available when Ravens lost at Cincinnati in the post-season last year. The fact is, however, the Ravens significantly outgained the Bengals in their 3 match-ups last season even though the majority of those stats were without starting QB Jackson which, unlike RB, is absolutely an extremely critical position. You see where I am going with this...we are getting even more line value here because of the RB injury for the Ravens. This is a major revenge game for Baltimore and they used last week's blowout win over the Texans as a tune-up for this game. As for Cincinnati, they were in the process of a blowout loss last week at Cleveland. You might think that makes this a great spot for the Bengals but actually they have failed to cover 7 straight times when in the following situation: at home and favored by less than a TD and coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. That makes this a play against spot for Cincinnati and I look for this play-against angle to reach 8 WINNERS IN A ROW as this spot is further strengthened by the revenge aspect for the Ravens and the fact this is a division rival too. 10* BALTIMORE +3.5 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - I am expecting starting QB Michael Pratt to go in this one even though he is a game time decision. In my opinion that is keep this total - currently as low as 48.5 - lower than it should be as of early game day morning. Pratt is expected to suit up here and go through warm-ups and has been increasing practice throughout the week. The feeling here is they did not want to risk him last week in a tough match-up against SEC foe Mississippi. Kai Horton got the start in that game and I am 100% comfortable if he goes again here. That is because Southern Miss has a defense that pales in comparison to an SEC defense! The Green Wave will move the ball well here as they seek revenge for last season's loss to the Golden Eagles which also means Tulane will not take their foot off the gas in this one. Southern Miss did allow 66 points last week. I do expect the Eagles to struggle again here on that side of the ball but they will score better at home as well. Southern Miss has averaged scoring 32.6 ppg last 8 home games. The Green Wave are coming off a huge season and are very talented offensively and scored 37 in Week 1 before struggling against Ole Miss last week - a strong SEC team. Both teams has played 2 games so far this season and all 4 of these games have totaled at least 54 points and this one will as well. Tulane averaged 36 ppg last season and they will likely repeat that average again this year. A lot of value with the low posted total here. 10* OVER the total in Southern Miss