CFB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 61 in Ole Miss Rebels vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Sometimes bad weather expectation leads to even more value with an over and that is the case here. The fact is the winds will be light and truly that is the biggest issue with a total. So rain is expected in Oxford for this one during the game but much of it will be light. There could be some heavier showers at times but really those are not expected to last long. In other words, this is not expected to be a monsoon. So with light rain or showers plus light wind, the offenses really should not be impacted much. Both teams want to play fast. Ole Miss is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and Mississippi State head coach Leach said the Bulldogs want to play fast in this one too. Miss St has a great passing attack and the Rebels have the more balanced attack on offense. They just piled up over 700 yards of offense yet lost to Arkansas. Rebels have allowed about 35 points on average last 6 games. Bulldogs have allowed about 34 points per game in last 4 against SEC opponents. Considering this as well as the potency of these two solid offenses, I expect plenty of points here. Over is 5-1 in last 6 Ole Miss games. Over is 3-0 in last 3 Mississippi State games. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* OVER 61 in Ole Miss

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants +10 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - That old adage about the wounded dog bites the hardest will hold up here. The Giants have injury issues to the offensive line and wide receiver. They are also coming off a home loss to the Lions in which they gave the game away because of 3 turnovers. New York is fired up to respond this week and facing a division rival should certainly help them. One little hidden angle that I feel could surprise here is that WR Kenny Golladay could be a positive factor. He played multiple seasons for Lions earlier in his career and is used to playing on Thanksgiving. He averaged over 100 yards receiving per game in the T-Day games from 2017 to 2019. After those 3 solid performances he missed the 2020 game and then went to the Giants. New York has a long history in the NFL but hardly ever has played on Thanksgiving. Watch Golladay and Darius Slayton have big games here. The Cowboys won the first meeting and NY wants revenge. Even if they don't get revenge I do expect them to at least get the cover. The Cowboys off the huge win over Vikings where they played a great game and everything went their way. It is hard to have games like that B2B and especially on a short week. That said, it takes nearly a perfect game to cover a double digit spread in the NFL and this is particularly true in a divisional game. Look for Saquon Barkley to bounce back with a strong ground game as he had a massive game the week before the poor game last week. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +10

NFL Thursday 8* OVER 54.5 in Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills @ 12:30 ET - Two of top offenses in league statistically. Yes, the Lions have been that strong on that side of the ball and the pass defense of the Bills has not been great this season. Couple that with both teams off a win and the fact Detroit is one of the worst overall defenses in the league and you have a set up for a high-scoring shootout here in my opinion. Buffalo has been more of an under team this season but finally the recent results starting to be commensurate with how they play and we have seen B2B overs involving Bills. This should make 3rd straight. Lions off B2B overs but most recent home game was an under. That followed 4 straight overs in first 4 home games for Detroit this season. More of the same on tap here! 8* OVER 54.5 in Detroit

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons +6.5 or +7 @ Ohio Bobcats @ 7 ET - Ohio is priced this way because they are at home and still motivated to win as they look to win the MAC East. However, their top QB Rourke was on the sidelines with a heavy brace and ice for the 2nd half of last week's game. Even if he is able to play here he will not be 100%. As for Bowling Green, they are off a big 42-35 road win at Toledo to keep their MAC title game hopes alive. They need to win here and then hope Kent State beats Buffalo on Saturday. The road win for the Falcons was no fluke as they are now 3-0 SU in MAC road games this season and have scored an average of 35.7 ppg in winning all 3. Led by a solid (and healthier) QB in McDonald, the Falcons are off an amazing late win against the Bulls that kept their season alive. BG will build off that emotional last second win, they were down 35-34 when they won it on what was very nearly the final play of the game. The Bobcats are not very strong defensively and rely heavily on their offense to win games. The Falcons are peaking at the right time and will give a wounded Ohio U all they can handle here and possibly even win the game outright. I will take the points. 10* Bowling Green +6.5 or +7

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +8.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET (Mexico City) - I know that statistically the Cardinals are not a very good team. However, they still have a dangerous offense and could have Murray back at QB for this one. If not, McCoy will be under center again and it looks like DeAndre Hopkins will be available at WR again and he had 10 receptions for nearly 100 yards with McCoy at QB last week. Marquise Brown is probably not coming back at WR this week but they still have plenty of targets in the passing game with Hopkins and Rondale Moore. Note that Moore also had a big game last week. The Cardinals are off a win versus the Rams and have scored an average of 29 points last 4 games. The 49ers are just 2-2 last 4 games and averaging only 22.5 points during that stretch. San Francisco has the better defense in this match-up but are over-valued here against a Cardinals team with great backdoor potential here. I just don't see the Niners beating the Cards by more than a 1-score margin here. Yesterday only 4 of the 12 games were victories by more than an 8 point margin. This is not unusual as it so hard to win in this league let alone to win by a big margin. In a divisional match-up winning big is even tougher. There were 4 divisional games so far this week and all were decided by a one-score margin. Grab the points here. 10* ARIZONA +8.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 52 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The reason this total has crept up higher is because good news on the wide receiver front in terms of availability for both clubs. Look for this one to turn into a shootout. Beautiful southern California weather expected and light winds. Both Mahomes and Hebert will be lighting it up. Chargers expected to have Keenan Allen back for just his 3rd game of the season at WR and as noted above, other guys got promising news on the WR front for both the Chiefs and Chargers entering this one. I like when I have an over with two confident QB's fully capable of airing it out early and often. A big key here too is both teams protect the QB so well and don't allow many sacks. Also, the Chiefs pass defense is among the worst in the league. The Chiefs passing offense is the best the league. Chargers like to air it on offense when healthy and will attack KC early and often but also will not be able to stop Mahomes and Company in this one. Not only are Chiefs 3-1 to the over in road games this season, the 3 overs each totaled at least 65 points! The Chargers have allowed 37 points or more in 2 of last 3 home games but, on the other side of the ball, their offense getting a boost in the passing attack and this team can score plenty of points when healthier. Even in a not-fully healthy recent stretch they were averaging 25 points scored per game before getting shutout in the 2nd half of last week's loss at San Francisco. The LA offense gets right back on track here at home but can not stop the Kansas City attack either. 10* OVER 52 in Los Angeles Chargers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers got back TJ Watt and they dominated the Saints last week. However, this is not the Saints. This is a Bengals team that is coming off their bye week, playing with revenge, has won 5 of 7 games and that also gets back a key defensive player this week. DJ Reader is expected back for Cincinnati and he is a key for their run defense. Bengals already are having a solid season even with him missing time and now if the Steelers struggle to run the ball, a lot of pressure is going to be on inexperienced Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. The rookie was sacked 6 times last week and with an angry Cincy team in town, things will not get any easier in this one for Pickett. The Steelers won the first meeting in Cincinnati in overtime but that was a turnover-fueled win as the Bengals had a massive yardage edge in that game. Also, a big reason Cincy is now so hot is because Joe Burrow is again playing like a star and then, as an added bonus, Joe Mixon was running great again in most recent game against Carolina. If the Bengals establish the run again here look out. The fact is that Cincinnati has won 5 of 7 thanks in part to scoring an average of 32.2 points per game in those 5 wins. As for the Steelers, they averaging only 14.6 ppg scored last 8 games since that OT win over Bengals to open the season and they have never scored more than 20 points in regulation time of any game this season. Pittsburgh just will not be able to keep up here and I expect a road rout to result. 10* CINCINNATI -3.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Colts are now coached by Jeff Saturday instead of Frank Reich. Saturday had no head coaching experience other than the high school level and was an ESPN analyst prior to being hired by the Colts before the game at Las Vegas last week. I know they beat the Raiders but, just barely, and that is a Las Vegas team with a weak defense and that, with that defeat, is now 2-7 on the season. Now Indianapolis faces an team that is angry off its first loss of the season. So they go from facing a Raiders team that is now 2-7 to facing an Eagles team that was 8-0 heading into last week's action. This is going to be a huge test for the Colts and their very green head coach. I like Saturday. So this is nothing personal. He was a great player and seems like a great guy. I just think this is a virtually unheard of jump to a head coaching spot and even though he has delegated some things like play-calling, etc to others this is still a major undertaking. He survived, barely, against the Raiders in his first game on the sidelines but this is a different animal this week. The Eagles do have some injuries issues on both sides of the ball but they are still the vastly superior team in this match-up and they will win this one in a road rout. The Colts 5 losses have been by an average margin of 13 points. 6 of last 7 Eagles wins by 8 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -7 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - 5-4 team is favored by a full TD over a 7-3 team in a rivalry game. Looks funny, right? Don't let the line fool you. The Sooners being at home for this is big. QB Dillon Gabriel has been much better at home than on the road this season. Gabriel and the entire offense had a rough game at West Virginia last week and it was a 2nd straight 3-point loss for the Sooners. Keep in mind, all five of their wins this season have been by a double digit margin. Oklahoma is going to take advantage of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders not being 100 percent. I know he came in last week to lead the Cowboys to the win versus Iowa State but he started the game on the bench for a reason. Also, that was at home against the Cyclones and now he is on the road and he and OSU now face their biggest rivals and those rivals are having a challenging season and have revenge on their minds. In other words, this is essentially Oklahoma's Championship Game if you will! They want revenge after the Cowboys snuck out the win in last season's meeting! That ended a streak of 6 straight wins for the Sooners in this series. Look for OU to get back to the winning side of things here. At home this season they have scored an average of 40 points per game! Oklahoma State has scored an average of only 12 points in their last 3 games heading into this one. The Cowboys have lost their last two road games by an average margin of 34.5 points. Another ugly defeat for OSU on the road is in the forecast here! 10* OKLAHOMA -7

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 in Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - I know the PSU defense has been good this season but they are coming off a shutout win over Maryland after also blasting the Hoosiers 45-14 at Indiana. The Nittany Lions are known for dominating Rutgers and have their home finale on deck versus Michigan State on deck. While that game against Spartans is not a big game it is still much bigger than this one and I have a strong feeling that the Lions defense is going to overlook the Scarlet Knights here. Rutgers offense has been a little better of late and the Scarlet Knights are trying to build for next season and Gavin Wimmsatt is off a season-best performance last week. He has thrown 63 passes the last two games and the Knights will look to continue to open things up a bit on offense here versus a sleepy Lions defense. Again, I know PSU has a great D but I expect them to come in flat here after the recent big wins and without much motivation here on the road at Rutgers. As for the PSU offense they have been scoring plenty of points and the Scarlet Knights have allowed about 40 points per game in their 4 games versus Mich St, Ohio St, Mich, and Minn. PSU is fully capable of hanging a big number on Rutgers here. PSU averaging 34.5 ppg in their road games this season! In fact, if you take out the Michigan game, Nittany Lions averaging 40 per game away from home. In my mind, PSU gives up some points here but the Lions manage to come roaring back. They are huge favorites for a reason. The result will be a ton of points as no precip and light winds expected on a crisp fall day in Piscataway. Each of Knights last two games totaled 48 or more points. Penn State, before last week's 30-0 win, had seen 8 of first 9 games this season total at least 47 points. In fact 4 straight had totaled at least 58 points! 10* OVER 44.5 or 45 in Rutgers

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars -3.5 @ Arizona Wildcats @ 2 ET - The Cougars have rival Washington on deck but the Wildcats have rival Arizona on deck so that is a wash. Washington State has 4 losses this season but 3 of the losses were to ranked teams! The other loss was at Oregon State but the Cougars did outgain the Beavers in that one so the final score was deceiving. The point is that this Washington State team is quite solid and they certainly have a much better defense than Arizona. The Wildcats are off a huge upset at UCLA as a nearly 3 TD underdog so this is a beautiful set-up for a letdown for Arizona. The Cats had lost 4 straight games prior to beating the Bruins. Arizona has not won B2B games all season. All 6 of their losses by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat is 18.3 points! I know they shocked UCLA last week but, prior to that, Arizona's only 2 losses since winning their season opener were against an FCS school and a Colorado team that has played like an FCS school this season! In their 4 defeats prior to beating the Bruins, Arizona allowed 45 points or more in all 4 losses! The Cougars, on the other hand, have allowed only 19.3 points per game last 6 games. We get a favorable line because they are on the road and I won't hesitate to back the much better team here and much better defense at a very fair number here! 10* WASHINGTON STATE -3.5

CFB Saturday 8* OVER 52.5 or 53 in Central Florida Golden Knights vs Navy Midshipmen @ 11 AM ET - Over is 5-1 in Navy's last 6 games. Midshipmen have allowed 30.6 last 5 games. Navy has scored 29.3 last 6 games. 4 of last 6 UCF games have totaled at least 60 points. Central Florida averaging 39 points scored per game when at home. Knights have allowed at least 28 points in 3 of last 4 games and have struggled to stop Navy's rushing attack in last year's meeting. The Golden Knights seeking revenge for that loss last year and will score plenty here but will again have some issues against the unique offense run by the Midshipmen. Look for UCF QB Plumlee to continue the strong play he displayed in his return to the field last week and that is a key to this one seeing plenty of points as well. I know Navy has a solid run defense but that is different too when it comes to stopping a dual-threat QB like Plumlee! 8* OVER 52.5 or 53 in Central Florida 

CFB Friday 10* Top Play New Mexico Lobos +14.5 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 9:45 ET - Yes the Lobos offense has been ugly. But this New Mexico defense is solid and there are situational aspects to this play that make it very unlikely the Aztecs will win this by more than a 2-TD margin so I am happy to grab the 14 plus the hook here in a game I expect to be decided by just a 1-score margin. San Diego State is hot and has won 4 of 5 but note this team is just 1-3 on the road this season. Their lone road win was by 16 points at Nevada but was helped by turnovers too. The Aztecs offense has been better since they switched to Mayden at QB but he threw for only 156 yards against the Wolf Pack. Also, he threw 2 interceptions in his other road start. Being successful on the road is not easy and I expect Mayden and the Aztecs to have some struggles here against a respectable Lobos defense that will be fired up here. This is the bowl game for New Mexico if you will. This is their home finale and has ended up being their biggest game of the season in an otherwise disappointing campaign. New Mexico Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long was the head coach at San Diego State for many years. Long will have his Lobos defense fired up for this one and I expect a tight low-scoring game here which should mean an easy cover for us. San Diego State off big game win versus San Jose State last week plus have another tough big game against Air Force on deck. This is a flat spot situation for the Aztecs whereas the fired up Lobos are fully focused here and want to get the shocker in their home finale. 10* NEW MEXICO +14.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 41 in Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:15 ET - Yes it will be cold in Green Bay but not brutal. Temperatures just a little below freezing, little to no precipitation expected, and no significant winds expected. Both offenses can, and should be, fully operational here in terms of opening up the entire playbook. That said, the Titans have not been an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination this season but remember Tannehill missed some time too. In the last 5 games he has played, Tennessee has gone 5-0 and scored an average of 21 points per game. In his last 4 games Tannehill has 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. He threw 2 touchdown passes in most recent start and the Packers Aaron Rodgers threw 3 touchdown passes in his most recent start. I expect to see more points here than most are expecting because the Green Bay offense will have some momentum again after rallying for the OT win versus Cowboys last week. The Packers offense has often struggled in true road games this season but if you look at their home games and their one neutral site game (UK), GB has scored at least 22 points in 4 of the 5 games. Given the above stats and the confidence Tannehill and Rodgers bring into this match-up, you can see why I am expecting this game to get well into the 40s. In those 5 non-road games I just mentioned, Rodgers has a TD-INT ratio of 10-1 this season! He loves playing at home and this team rallies off last week's win but the Titans have enough offense to keep up as well. That sends this one over the low posted total. 10* OVER 41 in Green Bay

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 64.5 or 65 in Tulane Green Wave vs SMU Mustangs @ 7:30 ET - Tulane has a good defense but this SMU offense is special. Last year the Mustangs put up 55 points on the Green Wave and they have scored at least 37 points in each of last 3 meetings. The Southern Methodist offense is particularly on a roll right now. The Mustangs have scored nearly 60 points per game on nearly 600 yards of offense per game the past two weeks. Tulane is averaging 35 points per game last 4 games. I know the Green Wave have solid overall defensive stats this season but they have allowed at least 28 points in 3 of last 4 games. SMU likes to play fast and they will score plenty here but, of course, Tulane is favored at home here for a reason. I am looking for a 41-38 type game and can not envision many defensive stops here as the Mustangs have allowed 37.5 ppg last 8 games! Green Wave will score very well here but again will struggle to slow down SMU, just like last season's match-up. 10* OVER 64.5 or 65 in Tulane

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 59 or 60 in Kent State Golden Flashes vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 6 ET - Both teams game up a lot of passing yards last week but their defenses were helped by turnovers. That said, I am looking for a ton of points here as the offenses were just fine last week too. Kent State is a different team when their healthier at their skill positions on offense like they are now. Also, the Golden Flashes need to win out for bowl eligibility so they will push hard here. However, they gave up a lot of yardage in their 40-6 win last week and I don't totally trust their defense and Eastern Michigan can score well. Kent State just gave up a lot of yardage to a bad Bowling Green offense. The Eagles have scored 30 points per game on the road this season. The Golden Flashes have averaged 33 points per game last 8 games and had allowed 33 points per game last 6 games before holding Falcons to 6 points (but a lot of yardage) last week. Don't be surprised if we see a 42-35 type game like we saw last night in Toledo. Another wild one in the MAC here! 10* OVER 59 or 60 in Kent State

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 50 in Toledo Rockets vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - The weather is not expected to have much, if any, impact here. Light winds, chilly temperatures, but any rain/snow expected to be light. I like the fact that the over is 4-0 in Bowling Green's road games this season. Also, the Falcons have averaged 32.5 ppg scored their past two contests away from home. Bowling Green will be looking to bounce back after getting blasted at Kent State last week. They will struggle to stop Toledo as the Rockets offense is so strong and now can play very relaxed this week too because they wrapped up the MAC West with last week's action. Toledo will be playing in the MAC Championship Game and with no pressure on them, the Rockets will just pile up points here at home where they had averaged scoring 45.5 ppg this season before scoring "only" 28 in last week's win over Ball State. That was a pressure filled key game in the MAC West race. Now that is over with and the Rockets defense will have a natural letdown too and let's not forget that the Rockets have allowed 28.4 ppg last 5 games. Given all of the above factors, this game should get well into the 50s if not 60s. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 on the season in Bowling Green road games! 10* OVER 50 in Toledo

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs Washington Commanders @ 8:15 ET - I do not normally like to lay big lines but I feel we have a lot of line value here. I like the fact that the Eagles are off a non-covering win last Thursday at Houston against the Texans. This is helping to give us some line value here. I know the Texans are not a very good team but still that game was at Houston and the Eagles were favored by 14. If you look at the lines for next Sunday's games the Eagles are favored by about the same as the 10.5 here versus Washington even though they are at Indianapolis next week! So the point is that, at home and playing with extra rest, this is a value spot in a game the Eagles should win by at least two touchdowns! The Commanders have played two divisional games so far and lose them both by at least 15 points! Also, Washington allowed 30.5 ppg in their first two road games this season. I know they then beat the Bears in Chicago but they were very fortunate in that one as they were outstatted by nearly a 2 to 1 ratio 391 yards to 214 yards! Yes they beat the Colts on the road but that is truly the one "feather in the cap" the Commanders have in terms of a truly successful road effort this season. That said, the Eagles are not the Colts! Philly is undefeated and showing no signs of slowing down and they have not had B2B ATS losses this season! Look for a big home win and cover here as the Commanders just don't have the offense to keep up here and I am sure the Eagles defense is going to "bring it" in a home game in which they are hosting a divisional foe. 10* PHILADELPHIA -10.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 or 45 in San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:20 ET - McCaffrey, Mitchell, Samuel...the Niners are getting geared up on offense this week with all these weapons around Garoppolo. Look for San Francisco to have a big game against a rather weak Chargers defense this week. I know the Niners defense is a strength but the Chargers passing game is a strength too and they will be moving the ball well this week also. I know that LA is without some top receiving talent but last week was the first week without both Allen and Williams. They will now be better adjusted to that scenario this week and note that last week Bandy and Carter and Palmer plus RB Ekeler combined for 25 receptions last week. The Chargers will surprise many here as Herbert and company move the ball better than most will expect without Allen and Williams. The 49ers are actually 2-8 ATS last 10 times off a bye. Sometimes a defense loses some of its edge when off a bye week and lets not forget the Niners allowed an average of 36 points over their two games before holding the Rams to 14 points in that key divisional win. 49ers have averaged 24 points per game at home this season. Chargers have averaged 25 points per game last 5 games. This total has fallen from its opener due to the injury issues and this has opened up excellent line value for us. 10* OVER 44.5 or 45 in San Francisco

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +4 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Dallas is off their bye week. Prior to that, lets take a look at their last 5 games. 4 of the games were against teams that currently have a losing record. The combined record of those teams is now 12-22 on the season. The other game was against the Eagles and Dallas lost by double digits. The point is that Cowboys are over-rated here. This line is saying that Dallas would be a 7 point favorite on a neutral field. I am not buying that. Green Bay has been turnover prone and has had issues for sure. But note that this Packers team has had only 3 home games this season. They won 2 of the 3. The one they lost was after they came back from the UK. No, that is not an automatic excuse to lose a game but it is not a normal scheduling spot especially when you are not afforded a bye week after going to the UK. The fact is that Green Bay can, and will, respond here. Their loss to Detroit was turnover-driven. I feel that road loss to the Lions will prove to be rock bottom for the Pack. I know it is not easy to call a "bottom" for a team or a market (stocks for example) but the fact is I sense it strongly here. Green Bay is much better than they have shown this season and here is their chance at home to get back on track and make a statement against a Cowboys team they have beaten in 8 of last 9 meetings. The fact we are getting sizable points here to work with as an underdog is an added bonus. Keep in mind the Packers first 5 losses this season were to teams that currently have a combined 29-13 record. The loss to the Lions was the first shocker so to speak and I believe it will serve to be a wake-up call. Green Bay might be destined to battle for the final wild card spot now in the NFC post-season race. But the Packers are still very much alive in that race as the current spot-holder is only at .500 on the season. Pack get back on track here and Cowboys struggles in bigger games - they are known for disappointing in spots like this - continues here. 10* GREEN BAY +4

NFL Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - I am expecting Josh Allen to play here and, either way, Buffalo to roll at home. The only road game that the Vikings have had this season that is comparable to this is they played at Philly this season. They lost that game by 17 points. Buffalo is 6-2 this season and the Vikes now a surprising 7-1 but the Bills are most definitely the stronger team and we have line value here. Without a doubt this line would be above a TD if not for the Allen injury. As we have reached gameday now it looks more and more likely that he will go and the Bills are angry off a loss. Buffalo has won all 3 home games by a double digit margin this season. The average margin of victory in those games was 26 points! 8* BUFFALO -6.5

NFL Sunday 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 9:30 AM ET (Munich, Germany) - The Seahawks have played 5 games away from Seattle and allowed 31 ppg! The Bucs have played 4 games away from Tampa and have allowed 13.5 ppg! Fade the masses as the Hawks are the hot ATS team and TB has been cold ATS but the better defense and stronger passing attack on offense will key the victory here. Buccaneers D has been getting healthier again of late too. 8* TAMPA BAY -2.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears -2.5 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Bears opened up favored at 3.5 and even as high as -5 at some of the earliest posting shops. Baylor is down to a 2.5 as of game day very early morning. Everyone is seeing that a ranked team is getting points here and everyone sees the stats that Bears were fortunate to beat Sooners at Oklahoma last week. Also, everyone sees that Wildcats deserved better at home against Texas last week. However, this is just all leading to exceptional line value here with a Baylor team that plays different when at home and is catching Kansas State off 3 straight emotional games and that is on the road for the first time in 3 weeks! The Wildcats had a chance to knock off undefeated TCU and did not then they won a huge home game against Oklahoma but fell short against Texas. That is 3 straight very big games for the Cats. Note that they have averaged scoring just 19 points per game last two road games and could be emotionally spent here. Also, the Bears have won 4 straight meetings with Kansas State! The Bears have one home loss this season but they outgained Oklahoma State by nearly 100 yards in the surprising defeat. Their other 3 home games have been won by a combined score of 146 to 40. That includes a Big 12 win over an improved Kansas team in which the Bears had 28 first downs compared to just 11 for the Jayhawks! Remember Baylor is coming off a huge season last year and yes they have regressed a little but this is still a very strong, very well-coached team, that loves to play in Waco and will be riled up for a huge win here over the Wildcats. Fade the line move as the Bears improve to 11-1 their last 12 home games! They are strong here and I do not trust this Kansas State team on the road off of 3 straight huge games. This is a tough spot for them and they will struggle to keep up with the strong offense that the Bears have. 10* BAYLOR -2.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 58 in Florida Gators vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 4 ET - The Gamecocks confidence is growing as they have won 5 of 6 games and became bowl eligible with last week's win at Vanderbilt. QB Spencer Rattler played well in that one and has been solid on the road this season. In his 3 starts away from home the Gamecocks have averaged 31 points and he has averaged 251 yards passing with 5 TDs and only 2 INTs. I like the growing confidence of this South Carolina offense against a Florida defense that is not very good this season. The Gators have allowed about 30 points per game this season and it is not fluke as the yardage allowed numbers reflect this! The key to the over here though is that is Florida's final home game and their offense has been solid and the South Carolina defense is certainly not great. The Gamecocks have allowed 30 points per game in SEC action. The Gators are off a big win at Texas A & M and have scored an average of 34 points last 7 games. 6 of Florida's last 7 games have totaled at least 59 points and I feel strongly that this one will too. QB Richardson was struggling earlier this season but he has a TD-INT ratio of 9-3 his last 6 games and had one bad game versus Missouri but averaged throwing for 250 yards per game in the other 5 games. South Carolina could get MarShawn Lloyd back at running back for this one too but, either way, I love the over in this match-up. Two solid QB's coming off strong games and each offense has some extra confidence heading into this one. Again, Gators defense down this season too and Gamecocks defense hard to trust on the road against a quality offense. 10* OVER 58 in Florida

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 vs Maryland Terrapins @ 3:30 ET - Maryland just got blasted at Wisconsin and has failed to cover 4 straight games. Not only is this a B2B road game situation for the Terrapins, they will be facing a very motivated Nittany Lions team. Yes, Penn State did win at Maryland last season but they also have not forgotten the Terps last visit to State College. That was in the pandemic-impacted 2020 season and the Nittany Lions lost 35-19 despite having nearly twice as many first downs in the game. PSU was about a 4 TD favorite in that game but was done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit and got embarrassed at home. The Lions will be ready for payback here and, with this line dropping a little bit, I feel we have excellent value here. The average margin of victory in Penn State's last 6 wins is 25.5 points. All 6 were by a double digit margin. The Nittany Lions most recent home game was a loss to Ohio State and, as noted above, they did lose to Maryland last time they met here. Those two factors mean that the Nittany Lions will be very focused here. Insuring that focus is the fact they have Rutgers (1-4 in Big Ten action) on deck. Lay it and look for the hosts to pull away as this game gets into the 2nd half. 10* PENN STATE -10.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 52 in Cincinnati Bearcats vs East Carolina Pirates @ 8 ET - The Pirates have an efficient offense but the Bearcats have a great defense. Cincinnati's offense, statistically, is not as strong as their points per game average. Also, this included scoring 63 against an FCS school. Against FBS opponents this season, the Bearcats are scoring an average of 29.5 points per game. They have allowed an average of only 17 points per game at home and just held Navy to 10 last week. East Carolina comes in off a bye week so they'll be ready to go here and the Pirates are a scrappy, tough team. However, their offense runs into a very solid defense that will be fired up for this home game too. As for the East Carolina defense, they have allowed only 21 points per game in regulation time of their games this season. Remember what I said above about Cats allowing 17 ppg at home and now note EC allowing 21 overall. This line is near a 4 and that 21 to 17 is a 4 so you can see why I am expecting this game to fall in this range of a 21-17 final and well below the low 50s total we currently have in the marketplace on this one. 10* UNDER 52 in Cincinnati 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs Atlanta Falcons @ 8:15 ET - Could be some rainy plus possibly windy and ugly weather in Carolina tonight. The hurricane that moved into Florida is bringing rain up to the Charlotte region and it is expected to be here for the entirety of this game. Look for the ugliness to help the home dog Panthers as they have the better defense in this match-up. Yes they just got throttled at Cincinnati but they are 2-3 at home this season including 2-0 in divisional home games. Carolina won those two home games versus the Bucs and Saints by a combined score of 43 to 17. I look for them to step here at home again. As for the Falcons, they are just 1-3 on the road this season and have allowed 27.5 points per game on the road this year. There is a reason that Atlanta is such a small favorite here over a team that is 2-7 on the season! Don't let the line fool you. The home dog is the play here. 10* CAROLINA +2.5 

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -6.5 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7:30 ET - Tulsa has QB issues. Brin has been hurting and, even if he plays, he has been throwing too many picks lately. The other option for the Golden Hurricane QB is Braxton but he is a freshman and would be making a road start here against an angry Memphis team that has lost 4 straight games and is ready for a huge bounce back here. The Tigers are much better than their record shows and this is their final AAC home game of the season. In a primetime situation on a Thursday night, I look for Memphis to put on a show in this one! Beautiful weather expected for this one and the Tigers can put up huge points at home in this one. I just don't think, even though Memphis D is not a strength, that Tulsa can keep up here given their QB situation. The Golden Hurricane have just 3 wins this season and they have come against a Northern Illinois team that entered this week with a 2-7 record. Also an FCS school, Jacksonville State, and a Temple team that is 1-4 in conference games this season. Tulsa's last 5 losses all by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat has been 15 points. As for Memphis, yes they have been losing but they faced some tough match-ups and lost some tight games too. The Tigers will take advantage here of taking a step down in level of opposition. Keep in mind, Memphis lost by a single point then lost a game in 4-OT, then lost B2B games against teams that were ranked in Top 25. The Tigers 4 wins this season all by double digit margins and average margin of victory was 17 points. Getting them at under a TD here is a great bargain price. Look for huge home win in a statement game for the Tigers. 10* MEMPHIS -6.5

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes -2.5 @ Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - Love the set-up and the motivational/pressure factors in this one plus the line. Why would Kent State be favored by 2.5 on the road when they are 3-6 on the season and Bowling Green is having a winning season including 4-1 in MAC play? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you here. The Golden Flashes have played the much tougher schedule overall as well as within the MAC. The Falcons are over-rated right now. Kent State certainly has the much better offense in this match-up with Schlee back under center. Also, all the pressure is on Bowling Green here. With Ohio University's win last night, BG needs a win here to maintain a tie atop the MAC East standings and plus Buffalo (in action tonight) is in the mix as well. That said, Falcons are feeling pressure while Golden Flashes looking to play the role of spoiler. Kent State has won 4 straight meetings and by a combined score of 186 to 92. All 4 wins have been by at least 7 points so were are testing a 100% streak here and the Golden Flashes have truly dominated this period as they have doubled up the Falcons in total points the past 4 years. Kent State averaging 28 points scored in their 5 MAC games but is off a tight loss last week. Bowling Green is on a 3-game winning streak but has scored an average of only 18 points last 4 MAC games! The Falcons have not had a 4-game winning streak since the 2015 season! They are over-rated right now and playing with pressure they are not use to. The Golden Flashes take advantage. 10* KENT STATE -2.5

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 56 in Akron Zips vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7 ET - This is home finale for Akron. The Zips are off an ugly 27-9 home loss to Miami-Ohio. However, they had almost 400 yards of offense in that game but were done in by turnovers. As a result, we are getting line value here. Akron had averaged 27.5 points per game the 4 prior games. Also, the Zips had averaged 26.3 points per game in their 3 prior home games. Akron will again move the ball well here as Eastern Michigan has allowed an average of 31 points in MAC games this season. However, the Zips are not good defensively and the Eagles will take advantage. Eastern Michigan has averaged 29 points per game on the road this season and 26 points per game in MAC games. In summary, Akron's D is very bad but the Eagles are not much better and with this being the Zips finale look for a huge effort from the hosts. As a result, this one turns into a back and forth high-scoring affair. 10* OVER 56 in Akron

NFL Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - Ravens off B2B wins but were on a 3-9 SU run dating back to last season prior to getting these consecutive wins. Also, even though they have extra rest since they had the Thursday night game last week, it is still not easy to go on the road again and win B2B road games. Since Dalton has taken over at QB for the Saints, they have averaged 30 points per game last 5 games. Ravens have averaged 22 points per game last 5 games. The Ravens do have a bye on deck but have covered just once the last seven times they have a bye week on deck. The Saints have the much better passing offense in this match-up plus the Ravens pass defense has been an issue this season as they rank as one of the worst. New Orleans defense builds off last week's strong performance. Also, Saints let a receiver go back to the practice squad which means they are now expecting more from some of the guys that had been banged up. Strong team effort gets the home win as confidence is building with Dalton under center for the Saints. 10* NEW ORLEANS +1.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 42.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - I know the Bucs might get a couple guys back in their secondary for this one but they may not be 100% and certainly may not play a ton of snaps if they even come back for this game. The fact is that the Rams and Bucs offense both struggle to run the ball. This game is going to be all about airing it out. Look for Brady to put on a show for TB at home in this one but I expect Stafford to finally have a bigger game as well. The Bucs defense has been been struggling and the Rams will take advantage downfield and WR Cupp is good to go for this one. Tampa is allowing 25 points per game last 5 games and those included match-ups with bad teams like Steelers and Panthers plus a Falcons team I am not so impressed with despite their surprising .500 record so far this season. Also, against the Ravens and Chiefs during this stretch, the Bucs allowed an average of 34 points per game. The Buccaneers have averaged scoring 25 points per game last 3 home games and are hungry to snap their losing skid here before heading to Germany to take on the Seahawks next week. The Rams managed just 14 points against a solid Niners defense last week but did score 24 in their prior game and I think facing a struggling Bucs defense is going to get LA going here. Los Angeles has not impressed this season on offense but they have faced a tough schedule too. They get it going again here in this one and TB will not take their foot off the gas in this one and that will force the Rams to have to throw as well. Low total considering the key factors here and decent weather expected for this one too. 10* OVER 42.5 in Tampa Bay

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals -1.5 point spread or -125 money line vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - For those of you with access to the money line I would certainly grab that rather than risk getting burned on a 1 point win here. However, I do feel confident the Cardinals should get a comfortable win in this revenge game. Yes, the Seahawks are on a 3-game win streak which started in a win over Arizona. However, this Cards team's other 4 losses this season have come against Kansas City (Super Bowl contender again), LA Rams (won Super Bowl last season), Philadelphia (8-0 this season), and Minnesota (6-1 this season). I feel this Cards team is flying under the radar now, especially since DeAndre Hopkins is back. He is such a threat in the passing game and has been fantastic in his two games since returning. With QB Kyler Murray off a game in which a couple of his picks were the difference, despite putting up big numbers, I look for a huge game here at home for the Cards passing attack. WR Rondale Moore also off a huge game and Zack Ertz, TE, a threat in the passing attack as well. The Cards just so much stronger with Hopkins back in the mix and remember they beat the Saints here 42-34 in the only home game since he came back! I know the Seahawks have been winning some games but they are over-rated in my opinion and yet leading the division. The Cards are hungry to, and will, close the divisional gap with a dominating win here! 10* ARIZONA -1.5 spread or -125 money line

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings -3 @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - The Vikings are 6-1 this season. Their only loss was to Philadelphia. Yes, to the now 8-0 Eagles. The point is that Minnesota is winning every game they are supposed to win. However, because the Vikes are on a 2-4 ATS run, the betting markets are not exactly enamored with them. Yes the Commanders have won 3 straight games but they were severely outstatted by the Bears in the victory that started this win streak. They then beat a Packers team that is now on a 4-game losing streak and has been the most disappointing team in the NFL compared to expectations for the season. Then they beat a Colts team that has been another significant under-achiever this season. Truly, other than a solid game in a loss against the Titans (but they caught Tennessee in 2nd straight road game off key divisional win), the Commanders have not impressed this season. They have been blown out by the tough teams they faced (Cowboys and Eagles). Their other 5 games besides the 3 that I just mentioned were against teams with a combined record of 12-26-1 this season. So the Vikings at just -3 in this game basically just have to win the game for us to get the money. This is, like I said, a Minny team that has only one loss this season and it was to the still-undefeated Eagles. I really like Minnesota here because they just had a bye week two weeks ago. Washington still has not had a bye. They are playing for a 9th straight week. They have not played in the same city twice in consecutive weeks this season. It has been home/road/home/road, etc all season long. The Commanders need a bye. They are not getting it yet and I see the better team prevailing here and covering along the way. One final note of importance, the Commanders Super Bowl is next week. That's right, a chance to knock off the undefeated division rival Eagles. Set-ups don't get much better than this one in my opinion. Vikings all day! 10* MINNESOTA -3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 54.5 in Kansas State Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns @ 7 ET - Sometimes crazy stuff happens in sports. The Wildcats shutting out Oklahoma State last week was one of those. Don't put too much weight into that. Kansas State is going to struggle to slow down this Longhorns offense coming off a bye week. Texas is ready to light up the Wildcats and, keep in mind, other than games against Iowa State, both the Horns and the Cats have been involved in an abundance of high-scoring games involving Big 12 foes. Again, not including the Cyclones game, the Longhorns have scored an average of 39 points per game in Big 12 action. The Horns also have allowed big points in their two true Big 12 road games - at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma State. As for Kansas State, not including the Cyclones game, they had allowed 33 ppg in Big 12 action before throttling Oklahoma State last week. The Wildcats have averaged 38.5 points scored per game in Big 12 action, not including the rare low-scoring battle with Iowa State. So the point is that both these offenses fully capable of putting up big points in this one. Also, the Horns pass defense is a concern and the Kansas State defense comes into this one over-rated after last week's surprising shutout. Watch the Horns run right through them in this game but the Wildcats surging offense will battle right back too. That means plenty of points in this one. Tough game to call the side in my opinion as this one shapes up to be a back and forth shootout. 10* OVER 54.5 in Kansas State

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - I know there are major questions at quarterback for both teams entering this one. I know the markets have moved toward Kansas in this game. I am happy to grab the extra value on a well-coached Oklahoma State team that is off a thoroughly embarrassing 48-0 loss last week. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have beaten the Jayhawks 12 straight times. Also, OSU was 6-1 SU and ATS prior to that loss last week to the Wildcats. The only loss that Okla St had suffered this season, prior to last week, was a defeat in double-OT. In other words, I feel we have seen a severe over-reaction to last week's result and we are getting value with a Cowboys team that is sure to come out angry and focused for this game. I know Jayhawks are better than past teams but their defense has been very bad too. Though Kansas enters this game off a bye, they had lost 3 straight games and by an average margin of 10 points per defeat before that week off. Lets not forget that OSU was a top ten team entering last week's game. They should bounce back strong here no matter the QB situation for either side. I know the emotion that Cowboys are going to bring to this team under coach Gundy! Look for the 12-0 run in favor of the Cowboys in meetings between these foes to make it 13 in a row! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5

Saturday CFB 10* Penn State Nittany Lions -13.5 @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - Looks like most of the weather is going to move through before this game gets underway so this one is a go for me after having to wait it out a bit. Penn State should roll to a huge win here just like they did after losing badly at Michigan last month. The Nittany Lions turned around and rolled the Gophers. Yes this time the Lions are on the road and Indiana is off a bye week but this Hoosiers team has lost 5 straight games. This included a loss to Rutgers in their most recent game and they lost WR Cam Camper to a season-ending ACL injury in that one too! Sean Clifford had huge numbers for PSU versus Ohio State last week but also had turnover problems. He has been challenged by his head coach as a result of that and I expect he and this Penn State offense to attack a bad Hoosiers defense all day long in this one! On the other side of the ball, the Indiana offense has struggled in recent games and losing their top WR certainly will not help matters. The Hoosiers already have 3 losses by 14 or more points and this one should fall into this category as well. Be warned that there is a chance that Lions could start a little slow out of the gate, though I am not expecting that, but the Lions will come ROARING back either way as they are just too much for this bad Hoosiers team. 10* PENN STATE -13.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 54 in Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers @ 10:30 ET - This total has dropped a lot because of the weather forecast in Seattle. However, this game does not start until 7:30 ET local time. As luck would have it, the weather forecast is showing the heavier rain in the afternoon letting in up in the early evening. It actually may not even be raining at all when this game kicks off. Now weather can be tricky of course so there are no guarantees. But the point is that the expectation is very light showers to no rain at all during this game. It will have rained hard earlier in the day but the field here is AstroTurf and the playing conditions should be fine. There is some wind in the forecast but even those winds are subsiding to the 15 mph range by kickoff and down to 10 mph range during the game. The wind should not be a major factor either is the point. So lets take advantage of this now-lower total. The Beavers have allowed at least 27 points in all 3 of their road games this season. Now they face one of the best offenses in the nation and off a bye week. The Huskies have scored an average of 40 ppg this season but, other than allowing 6 points to an FCS program, Washington has also allowed 31 ppg this season in their other 7 games. With this line around a 4 that puts this game at 40-36 or 35-31 as you can see based on those numbers. Oregon State has scored 31 points per game last 3 games and I expect this one to get well into the 60s and 70s would not be a total shock either as you can see. 10* OVER 54 in Washington

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 46 in Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Look for the Eagles to simply do enough here to win and move on. They are on a short week. Yes it is Jalen Hurts homecoming and he would love to have a huge game here in his hometown. But does Philly really want to risk him too much in this one? I could see the Eagles going with a run-heavy and short quick passes to minimize injury risk for Hurts in this one. I mean Philly should be able to sleep-walk their way to another SU win here but they don't need a blowout win and the Texans just do not score much at all. Houston's offense is a mess and the Eagles defense has been playing with a lot of pride ever since they gave up 35 to the Lions at Detroit in week 1. Before their blowout win over the Steelers, the Eagles had averaged 24.6 ppg their 5 prior games. They are not piling up huge points every week. Their defense has been the real story though and each of their last road games were easy unders and Philly has allowed only 13.8 ppg their last 6 games. The Texans will struggle to score much here as they are averaging only 16.6 ppg on the season and now face the only undefeated team in the NFL. I look for a bit of an ugly grinder that plays out 24-10 in favor of the Eagles. Something along those lines. Maybe 27-13 or 28-14. Think this one stays in the 30s but at best, low 40s the way I see it. 10* UNDER 46 in Houston

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 63.5 in Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - Chase Brice, App St QB, has almost thrown for 22 TD's and only 4 INT's this season. Brice has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards already this season. Coastal QB Grayson McCall has 19 TD's and only 1 INT and has just eclipsed the 2,000 yard mark in passing on the season. The fact is that this should turn into a high-scoring shootout as good weather is expected in Conway, SC as well. So you have the ideal set-up for both teams to air it out so don't let the big number scare you here. Also, the Mountaineers can run the ball well and we have seen Coastal Carolina struggle against the run recently. The run game being dominant can then open up the passing attack. So App St should move the ball very well here but the Chanticleers at home and facing a weak pass defense will absolutely turn this game into a back and forth score-fest. If you are a fan of the punting game tune in elsewhere because I don't expect to see the punters on the field much in this one! Both teams move the ball very well and plenty of points throughout. App St has scored at least 42 in 3 of last 4 games. Chanticleers did not score well in most recent home game but had averaged 35 in first 4 home games and bounce back here. 10* OVER 63.5 in Coastal Carolina 

Wednesday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 55.5 or 56 in Northern Illinois Huskies vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 7 ET - The Chippewas made the switch at QB last week with Bauer coming in during the game for an ineffective Richardson. That QB competition is going to help spark things here no matter which one gets the start. As for the Huskies, they could get QB Lombardi back this week but either way, they should move the ball well here. Northern Illinois was averaging 33 points per game this season before being held to 14 last week in a deceiving final score as they did outgain Ohio University. As for Central Michigan, they have allowed 150 points in their 4 road games this season. Also, the Chippewas are averaging 26 points scored per game on the road and that even includes facing Oklahoma State and Penn State. In their road game versus Toledo they scored only 17 points as 3 lost fumbles in the game kept them from getting any rhythm going. I look for the QB situation for each club to help spark things here and the weather will be very nice with unseasonably mild weather expected for this one Wednesday evening. The Huskies allowed 38 points per game in their first 6 games this season so I am not sold on their defense just yet after being better their last two games. 10* OVER 55.5 or 56 in Northern Illinois

Tuesday CFB 10* OVER 62 in Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - The question marks with injury issues has led to this total dropping. The result has been excellent line value. The Kent State defense is not good. However, their offense proved last week that they can move the ball well even with Kargman at QB instead of Schlee. Also, Ball State has not scored well lately but they have an excellent passing attack and the Golden Flashes pass defense is a major weakness. Great weather for a November game in Kent, OH is expected for this one as well so both offenses will be able to have their full playbooks at their disposal in this one. Both offenses have been better statistically than in scoring and that also leads to value here as their point totals will improve to catch up with the stats they have produced. That is not an absolute but is likely as some breaks have just not gone the way of either offense really. Ball State allowing 36.3 ppg on road this season. Golden Flashes allowing 32.5 points per game in MAC games. This one will surprise some people because Cardinals have not scored well recently but their offense is better than people realize and will put up a ton of points against this bad pass defense. But, again, the issue for Ball State is they can stop no one! 10* OVER 62 in Kent State

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Waiting has paid off as we are starting to see +3.5 show up on this game for Cleveland and I love the home dog in this spot. Cincinnati, and deservedly so, is receiving high praise for their defense. But note that the Browns are off a great defensive effort at Baltimore and held the Ravens to just 254 yards but lost the game due to losing the turnover battle. Yes Cleveland is an ugly 2-5 on the season but 4 of their 5 losses have been by 3 or less points. Again, another reason I love the fact we can now get 3 plus the hook in this one with the Browns. As for the Bengals, they are 4-3 on the season but their wins are against teams that are a combined 17-15 on the season. They also have lost to a Pittsburgh team that is 2-6 this season. I am not saying that Cincinnati is not the better team in comparison with the Browns. I am just saying that this is a tough spot for them here in my opinion as Cleveland has won 7 of the last 8 meetings and gives them a lot of trouble. Also, the Browns back home off a tight road loss while Bengals on the road after a blowout road win. These set ups often work out well for the hosts and particularly when they are a home dog! The Browns have been just as solid as Bengals in terms of pass defense and they also are the much better rushing team on offense. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 or 47 in Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - Very nice weather expected, surprisingly, for upstate New York in late October. Both offenses will take advantage. I know the Packers have been struggling on offense but watch Aaron Rodgers and company redeem themselves on national TV tonight as Buffalo's defense underestimates and comes in overconfident off the bye week. At the same time though, this GB defense has struggled much more than expected and now faces the best offense in the league and Josh Allen and company, at home and in nice weather, are going to put on a show in this one! Bills have averaged 40 points scored per game in their two home games this season. The Packers allowing 25 points per game last 4 weeks and facing a MUCH TOUGHER test here. By the way, GB has scored more than 20 in 3 of last 4 games and the Bills have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of last 4 games. Lets say the Packers get their 21 points here and the oddsmakers are right about the double digit spread...that puts this one into the low 50s! The fact is I am expecting much more than that given the situation and the good weather and this one could push the 60 range! 10* OVER 46.5 or 47 in Buffalo

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans Pick or +1 @ Houston Texans @ 4:05 ET - The Titans Ryan Tannehill is out for this game. Malik Willis gets the start. I know he is an NFL rookie. I know he did not look good in preseason. But he started his college career at an SEC school, Auburn, and then went to Liberty so he could get playing time. He is a true dual-threat QB and in his two seasons at Liberty he threw for 47 touchdowns and ran for 27 touchdowns! He is not facing a great defense here. Also, unlike preseason, he is working with all the starting talent around him. This Titans team is first in the AFC South and this Texans teams is dead last in the division and one of the worst teams teams in the league. I think this is a classic case of value being created by an injury situation. Tennessee is the much better team and now is not even favored here and they have a strong ground game and will do damage on the ground here. The only team in the AFC with fewer losses than the Titans is the Bills. The Texans are tied with the Lions as the only teams in the NFL that have only 1 win on the season. There is simply a much bigger disparity between these teams than what this line is reflecting and we can take advantage of the added value. Houston's only win this season was against (now 2-5) Jacksonville. Tennessee has a game at Kansas City on deck so they know they need this game against the Texans. The Titans want to maintain their hold on the top spot of the division and next week's game at KC will be tough. Look for them to be fully focused here and everyone dialed in on offense to help Willis along and the result will be a surprisingly solid win here! 10* TENNESSEE Pick or +1

NFL Sunday 8* Chicago Bears +10 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys did beat Detroit 24-6 last week but they were down at the half and, with THREE minutes to go in the ENTIRE GAME, Dallas was up only 10-6. They scored 2 late touchdowns to make for a deceiving final score in their win over the Lions. As for the Bears beating the Patriots, Chicago had 24 first downs and the Pats had just 12. That was a dominating win and was at New England. I am not here to tell you that Chicago wins this game outright. I just feel that the Bears getting double digits is far too much. Dak Prescott is still coming back from a thumb injury. The Bears confidence is growing and remember they should have beaten Washington 2 weeks ago as they had a huge yardage edge in that game. We are getting value with a solid defensive team that also can get yardage on the ground because Fields is a very dangerous QB with his legs too. This can give a solid Cowboys D some issues and this game will be decided by just 1 score in my opinion. 8* CHICAGO +10

NFL Sunday 8* Denver Broncos +2.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET at Wembley Stadium in London, UK - Getting 2.5 points with the Broncos is a great value here. They have the much better defense in this match-up. I know their offense has been bad but Denver's Russell Wilson took a week off to rest up and the Broncos have a bye on deck so he can go all out here. I have a feeling that Wilson is going to end up being the star of this game. Keep in mind, the Jaguars are on a 3-14 ATS run. I know Denver has been bad too but I trust their defense in this match-up and feel the Broncos offense is going to be better in this one because of the Wilson situation. They will be rejuvenated here and two of Bronco's recent losses in OT and they are catching a Jacksonville team that has lost 4 straight games by an average of 7 points apiece. 8* DENVER +2.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 60.5 in Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Baylor Bears @ 7:30 ET - The Red Raiders play extremely fast. They, by far, run more plays on offense per game than any other team on average this season. Texas Tech has a very dangerous passing attack, long known for an "Air Raid" offense and they got it going in a 48-10 win last week. The Red Raiders will move the ball against a Bears defense that has not been as good as advertised this season. Baylor particularly struggles on the road defensively and the weather is going to be very nice in Lubbock for this one too. So the Texas Tech offense should stay hot here but look for Baylor to answer them score for score as well! After all, this line is priced at nearly a pick'em for a reason! Look for this game to be a back and forth shootout! The Red Raiders had one bad game at NC State this season in which they scored only 14 points but in their other 6 games they have averaged 40 points per game! Also, in the 3 games prior to facing the Mountaineers, Texas Tech allowed 37 points per game. The Bears, similarly, had one poor offensive showing (at BYU) but have averaged 40 points per game in their other 6 games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the 70s and why I am fully confident we will get this one into the 60s at the very least. 10* OVER 60.5 in Texas Tech

CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET - The Cowboys have been a covering machine this season and they enter this game red hot ATS. Not only that, Kansas State is off a loss at TCU plus won their prior game by just a single point and already lost a home game versus Tulane this season too. Also, the Wildcats are hosting an OSU team that has performed well as a Big 12 road dog under Gundy and I love the fact the line has flipped here. The Cowboys have gone from being the favorite to the dog in this one. Kansas State did beat Oklahoma by a TD this season but that win is looking less impressive now that the Sooners have struggled so much this season. The point is that I am not a believer in the Cats being a very solid 5-2 team. The Cowboys, in my opinion, are a very strong 6-1 team that suffered it's only loss this season in double OT! OSU is off big win versus Texas but Cowboys do NOT have a penchant for letdowns under Gundy. His team will be ready here and having a veteran QB like Spencer Sanders is a HUGE plus as well! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +15.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - Remember when Penn State was so awful against Michigan and got blasted by the Wolverines? Yes? Well, so does everyone else and that is impacting this line. You know who remembers it the most? These Nittany Lions! They are at home and with a chance to make up for that embarrassment. They know they are better than that. They are not Ohio State and they are HIGHLY unlikely to beat the Buckeyes here. However, in my opinion, they also are HIGHLY unlikely to lose this game by more than 2 TDs. In fact, I expect this game to be decided by a single score as PSU has something to prove here and is capable of playing tough hard-nosed football against a very strong OSU team here. 10* PENN STATE +15.5

Friday CFB 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -3 vs East Carolina Pirates @ 8 ET - This is as much a play against East Carolina as it is a play on BYU and, trust me, the Pirates are solid and respectable team. But I think the difference in the current level of these two programs is not being properly estimated by the betting markets here. Not only that, traveling West for a weekday game is not easy and is not something the Pirates are really use to either. They have been particularly spoiled by their early season schedule. That, to me, is one of the biggest keys here. I personally do not feel the AAC is a very strong conference. Yes, Cincinnati and UCF have had their moments in recent seasons but this is still not a Power 5 Conference like the SEC or Big 12 or Big Ten or ACC or Pac-12. So far this season East Carolina's toughest game had been versus NC State and though they fell just short that tight loss is becoming less impressive with each successive ATS loss that the Wolfpack continue to suffer. Now credit must be given for the Pirates beating UCF last week but that was a turnover-fueled win as the yardage and first downs were about equal. Plus East Carolina was at home for that one and the 21-point margin of victory is serving to give us line value here. BYU is an independent but has played a ton of tough match-ups. Tough game have included facing Baylor and Oregon and Notre Dame and Arkansas. Look for the battle-tested Cougars to bounce back and respond after an embarrassing loss at Liberty last week as they take advantage of home field here and stop their 3-game losing streak! 10* BYU -3

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 55 in Washington State Cougars vs Utah Utes @ 10 ET - I fully understand the downward move on this total as both teams off a bye week and can be fully prepared defensively for what they are about to face and Cougars have scored only 12 points per game last two games! However, Washington State QB Cameron Ward did throw for 345 yards in the loss at Oregon State in which they scored only 10 points. Keep in mind too that in his last 3 home starts, Ward has averaged 339 passing yards per game! Also, he has a 12-5 TD-INT ratio in his 4 home games this season. Additionally, prior to 1 TD and 1 INT against the Beavers he did have a 2-0 TD-INT ratio at USC against the Trojans. I just think we will see a ton of points here because the weather will be chilly but decent because no precip and winds below 10 mph. Also, the Utes have allowed 42 points in each of last two games and Washington State will be ready for a huge home game! Also, the Cougars will struggle to stop the Utah offense! The Utes are averaging 41 points per game this season. Even if you take out the blowout win over an FCS school, Utah is averaging 35.3 points per game! They are a 7 point favorite here for a reason. A 42-35 or 35-28 type game sounds about right and you have a total in the mid-50s for this one. I'll grab the value! 10* OVER 55 in Washington State

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +2 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The Bucs have lost 4 of 5 games. Most concerning too is that their last 3 games have been against teams with a combined record of 7-14 this season. None of those teams have a winning record. Tampa Bay beat just one of them, Atlanta, but did not cover and TB enters this game on an 0-5 ATS run. In fact, 5 of Tampa's 6 games (since beating Dallas in season opener) have seen them face teams that currently have a losing record. The record of those 5 teams is now a combined 12-23. Consider that and now consider that the Buccaneers have lost 4 of 5 games! This team is just not the team it use to be. Keep in mind, former head coach Bruce Arians is now a senior football consultant for the Bucs. That is is not the same as being the guy patrolling the sidelines and calling the shots. That guy is Todd Bowles who should have stuck to just being a defensive coordinator (which he absolutely has excelled at). As an NFL head coach though, Bowles now has a combined record of 17-38 dating back to the 2016 season. John Harbaugh has a 47-25 record as head coach of the Ravens dating back to the 2018 season. Baltimore's defense was struggling earlier this season but they have started to turn the corner ever since a solid effort in the tight loss to the Bills. The Ravens offense is one of the better ones in the league in terms of points scored and is led by dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. With the Bucs offense a shell of its former self, I have no hesitation in grabbing the points for a strong play with the road dog in this one Thursday. 10* BALTIMORE +2

Monday NFL 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +9 @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - First off I like the fact the Bears have extra rest since they last played Thursday. Secondly I definitely like the fact that Chicago lost that game despite having a huge yardage edge of nearly a 2 to 1 ratio over the Commanders. Thirdly, and the biggest key here, is that even though New England is 3-3 this season one should take a look at their schedule! The Patriots are 3-3 but the 3 wins have come against team that are 5-15 on the season. Now, of course, one could argue that the Bears are also a bad team and I certainly understand that sentiment. However, I have a strong feeling that the Pats are entering this game overconfident off B2B wins and facing a 2-4 Bears team. New England will end up surprised that this Chicago defense is quite solid. The Bears have lost 3 straight games but all were by 8 or less points. Chicago has a high compete level and they have a solid rushing offense and a strong pass defense. Oftentimes teams like this make the best big road dogs! By the way, Chicago has lost the money ATS just once in last 8 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots can improve to 4-3 with a win here and that would put them just behind the 5-2 Jets and 5-1 Bills in the AFC East but those 5-2 Jets are on deck for the Pats too. Could New England get caught looking ahead here? I do feel that New England will circle the wagons in time to win this game Monday but I don't see them covering this inflated spread. Bears will be in this game all the way and have a legitimate shot at the outright upset. 10* CHICAGO +9

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins -7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Yes the Steelers just beat the Bucs but they were outgained in that game. The Dolphins lost to the Vikings but actually outgained Minnesota by over 200 yards in that game and had twice as many first downs. Miami was done in by turnovers in that one. The Dolphins get back Tagovailoa for this one at QB and still have Bridgewater and Thompson available to back him up. The Steelers welcome back Pickett at QB this week but he has struggled so far this season with a poor TD-INT ratio. Also, his back-up is Trubisky and he is not known for striking fear into opposing defenses. The Steelers are still in rebuild mode here and flukes like the upset win over TB will happen from time to time but Pittsburgh generally a different team on the road. Couple that with the fact that the Dolphins are starting a stretch in which their 5 opponents - including Steelers - have a combined record of 8-19-1, you know Miami realizes they can still salvage their season. They started 3-0 then went 0-3 and now they get back on track in a big way to improve to 4-3. Look for them to be revitalized with the return of their starting QB and playing at home in SNF. Miami has lost the money just 3 times the last 15 times they have been a home favorite. Dolphins roll by 7 or more in this one! 10* MIAMI -7

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 49 in San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - Both teams off unders last week but that has set us up for great value here. The Niners had about 300 yards of passing offense at Atlanta but were done in by 3 turnovers. The Chiefs and Bills combined for over 800 yards of offense in their game but key missed early game opportunities prevented it from going over the total. This game makes up for all of the above. The Niners have great stats on defense this season but it could have a huge asterisk by it...really! San Francisco has faced horrible offenses in Chicago (and in rainstorm) and in league-worst Carolina. Also, the stumbling Broncos and and a Rams team when Stafford was struggling badly and the entire LA offense was a mess. The other two teams they faced were Atlanta (who scores well but is statistically poor on offense) and Seattle. Give a little credit for slowing down the Seahawks but you can see why I am not so impressed with the Niners defensive numbers when you consider 5 of the 6 opponents they have faced. Now they face a Chiefs offense that has been annually one of the best in the league for years now and it has continued this season. The problem for KC is their defense is very bad against the pass and I look for Jimmy G and the Niners (who add some key personnel this week) to have plenty of success at home against a bad Chiefs defense. Kansas City was averaging 32 points per game before last week's loss but also is allowing 25 points per game on the season. Look for this one to get well into the 50s and 60s would not shock me. The Chiefs already have been involved in 3 games that totaled 59 points or more! 10* OVER 49 in San Francisco

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Colts seek revenge for the first meeting and actually outgained the Titans by over 120 yards in that one and held Tennessee to just 243 yards in the upset loss due to turnovers. With Matt Ryan off a huge game in which he threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions, I love this spot with the Colts! Ryan had a bad game recently in the OT win at Denver two weeks ago but Indy is actually 3-1 the last 4 games and in his 3 games besides the Broncos game he has averaged 322 yards passing and thrown for 7 TDs against just 1 INT. I think Indy is quietly starting to turn their season around and, statistically they are much better than the Titans on both sides of the ball but Tennessee has been more fortunate because the Colts had some turnover issues this season. So we get some built-in line value here and I will not pass it up. Indy has the much better passing attack and much better pass defense and that will key the road win here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +2.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 53.5 or 54 in California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies @ 10:30 ET - There could be some wind for this game tonight in Berkeley but I still think this total, especially after the downward line move, is too low. Washington is going to push the tempo in this game and all 7 of their games this season have totaled at least 58 points and, in fact, have averaged 71 points! California's scoring defense makes it look better than they actually are as their statistical defense is similar to that of the Huskies and you have seen how crazy Washington's games have been this season. That said, plenty of points expected here as the Huskies have averaged 42 points per game on the season and an angry Cal team should score better at home after an embarrassing loss at Colorado. The Golden Bears have not scored well in their last two games but both of them were on the road. Cal opened the season 3-1 and that included 3-0 at home where they have averaged 34.3 points per game this season. So again, when you factor in all of the above, should this total be anything less than the 60 range? I really don't think so and I feel we are getting extra line value because of Cal's recent road struggles. They will respond here at home but the are not going to slow down the electric Penix and this thriving Washington offense. The Huskies have scored at least 38 points in 6 of 7 games this season! 10* OVER 53.5 or 54 in California 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -4.5 vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - Penn State is certainly no powerhouse this season but the same holds true for Minnesota and yet if you factor in the home field edge for this one it is almost as if the line would be a pick'em on a neutral field and I disagree with that assessment and feel we have excellent line value here! Minnesota is 4-2 this season but the wins were against New Mexico State, Western Illinois, Colorado and Michigan State. Well NM St and Colorado are very bad football teams. Michigan St is having a down season and W. Ill is an FCS school. The Golden Gophers opened the season 4-0 but against those teams. They have since been absolutely been dominated by an Illinois team that is playing very well but is certainly no Michigan (that is who PSU just lost to) and and the Golden Gophers also lost at home by double digits to a Boilermakers team that Penn State defeated earlier this season at Purdue! Also, even though Auburn is down this season the Tigers are an SEC program and PSU crushed them by 29 points. Their schedule has been tougher than that of Minny. I know they have Ohio State on deck but they won't look past this game and they are angry after being completely manhandled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against the Wolverines. So this game means more to them than you might think and, after first loss of the season, the Nittany Lions bounce back and also send over-rated Minny to 3rd straight loss! 10* PENN STATE -4.5

CFB Saturday 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys +6 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - Stillwater is not an easy place to play. I know the Cowboys are going to be fired up after they let their game slip away at TCU last week. Yes that was a 2OT loss so you might think that OSU will have trouble bouncing back this week or could be spent physically and emotionally. However, the key is that this game is at home. If it was in Austin, I probably would not trust Oklahoma State here but being at home and angry off the loss to the Horned Frogs and getting 6 points here...it just all adds up to a lot of value. UT is absolutely a much better team under the new coaching regime. However, Texas has only played one true road game (the OU game was neutral site of course) and they lost outright at Texas Tech as a 7 point dog and they had to rally just to send that game to OT. By the way, that same Red Raiders team lost to this same Cowboys team by double digits! Love the home dog value here. When coach Gundy is off a loss he has only lost the money ATS 5 times the last 20 games. Also, the Cowboys have covered 9 of last 11 ATS as an underdog in conference action. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +6

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 58.5 in Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs UAB Blazers @ 8 ET - The Hilltoppers and the Blazers both have some solid defensive stats but the offenses deserve plenty of credit too. Western Kentucky is averaging 40 points per game this season. UAB is one of the most efficient teams in the nation averaging 7 yards per play on offense! There is going to be plenty of scoring in this one. UAB had over 500 yards of offense last week so they should have scored even more than they did in their non-covering win. Western Kentucky had over 440 yards of offense last week but hurt themselves a bit with turnovers (3) or they would have more points than the 35 they ended up with. I like the fact that both these teams are off unders as that is helping to give us some value here. The Toppers had given up 31 or more in 3 of 4 games before last week's solid road win. The only one they did not, they scored 73 points themselves! So, again, we'll see points here. The Blazers had a low-scoring 21-14 loss at Liberty early this season but have averaged 39 points in their other 5 games. Again, WKU averaging 40 points per game on the season. You can see why I am expecting this one to get into the 60s and why 70s would not surprise me either. By the way, great weather expected here as well. 10* OVER 58.5 in Western Kentucky

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - The Saints will get Olave back at WR for this one. That is key as he had 9 catches for 147 yards in his most recent road game. Overall, in his last 4 games (before missing last week) he caught 22 passes and averaged 87 receiving yards per game. He had a TD in each of the last two games. Cardinals pass defense is not too good and the Saints do have respectable numbers on offense this season. New Orleans also has averaged scoring 30 points per game last 3 games but also has allowed an average of 30 points per game last 3 games. Arizona scored only 9 points last week but did have over 300 yards of offense. Look for Cardinals to bounce back here against a Saints defense that has struggled at times. I know Arizona lost WR Brown to injury they get Hopkins back this week. He is NOT coming back from injury, he is coming from a suspension. He is healthy, his batteries are fully charged, and this guy is a playmaker. He can't wait to get going in this game and will help bring out the best in QB Murray in this one as well. Saints have gone over the total in 3 straight games and the Cards are allowing 28 points per game at home this season. We get a low total because overall the NFL has trended to unders this season and it seems like in primetime that trend has been magnified too BUT these types of things have a way of reversing at some point and it tends to be when the markets start to have to over-adjust. That looks like the case here with this very low total. We'll take advantage! 10* OVER 43.5 in Arizona 

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 47 in Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - Georgia Tech has been playing much better. However, they still do not score a lot of points. This is a Yellow Jackets team that, against FBS schools, has averaged only 13.2 ppg scored in regulation time. The key though is they are different team since the coaching change and I like the fact that the Jackets have allowed 21 points or less in each of the past two games and now are coming off their bye week. Virginia comes into this game averaging only 14.6 ppg scored their last 5 games. I know the Cavaliers allowed some bigger points before their bye week but that was against tougher offenses than what they are facing here. Both these offense struggle. They are two of the worst offenses in the nation and in this ACC battle and with both teams off a bye week and Virginia pushing hard for their first conference win of of the season, I look for defenses to rule the day in this one. The Yellow Jackets really need a win here to keep bowl hopes alive here too. So both teams going to bring strong highly-motivated efforts on defenses in this one and the D has been ahead of the O for both teams this season. 10* UNDER 47 in Georgia Tech

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 58.5 in Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - It will be chilly in Boone, NC for this one tonight but there will be rather light winds after a breezy afternoon and no precipitation expected. I look for the offenses to dominate this one. App State has allowed 32 points per game in the last 3 games against FBS teams. The Mountaineers had scored an average of 36 points the last 3 games before an embarrassing loss at Texas State as a huge favorite. The Panthers are averaging 35 points per game over the last 5 games. Georgia State is scoring well but this is a team allowing 438 yards per game. Because they also have a potent offense, Georgia State games average 875 yards of offense and I am expecting a shootout here as the Mountaineers have a solid passing attack and the Panthers have a weak pass defense. The Georgia State offense has been rolling and they can get their ground game going against Appalachian State here. Also, they scored just 16 points in last year's meeting but the Panthers were done in by turnovers as they did pile up a lot of yardage in that one. The Mountaineers have won 8 straight meetings with Georgia State and should have no trouble moving the ball here. Appalachian State has scored an average of 39 points in the last 3 meetings with Panthers. I would not be surprised, given all of the above, to see each team eclipse the 30-point mark in this one. 10* OVER 58.5 in Appalachian State

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - Chargers have been strong offensively but have some concerns on defense this season. The Broncos have not performed well on offense but I am expecting a big bounce back game from Russell Wilson this week after he had some treatments on his throwing shoulder this week. The problem is more in the lat below the shoulder than the shoulder itself and that is good news. It also is not a severe problem. Again, I expect success this week for a Broncos team that has moved the ball well at times but then failed in the red zone. The Chargers defense has not been stellar and Denver takes advantage. Keep in mind this is just the 3rd road game this season for Broncos. The last one totaled 55 points. The one before that was low-scoring but Denver put up a ton of yardage in that one at Seattle but did not have the points to show for it due to red zone failures. I feel all of this is helping to give us some market perception value in this one because also the Broncos have had some injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball and this Chargers offense is really heating up. Perfect weather in LA this evening too. The Chargers had a bad home game versus Jacksonville last time here so they will be ready to make up for that debacle and LA has scored an average of 28 points per game in their other 4 games. Los Angeles has allowed an average of 29 points last 4 games! You can see why I am expecting this game to surprise people and get into the 50s for total points! 10* OVER 45.5 in LA Chargers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys are expected to again be without QB Dak Prescott. Even though QB Cooper Rush has been a solid game manager for Dallas so far this season, the Cowboys still have an offense that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. They are fortunate to be 4-1 this season. The Eagles are NOT fortunate to be 5-0 this season. They have dominated for long stretches in games and are fully deserving of their undefeated record. They have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league and a solid defense that ranks well against both the run and the pass. The Cowboys are lacking a bit in terms of run defense and the Eagles had the #1 rushing attack last season and are again near the top of the league so far this season. Philly has hopes of getting to the Super Bowl this season but, until then, this is their Super Bowl. Indeed the Eagles, and the entire city of Philadelphia hates the Cowboys more than any other team in the NFL. They want revenge here for the fact they have lost 3 straight to Dallas by an average margin of 22 points per game. Keep in mind, last year's ugly loss to the Cowboys in Philly was after the Eagles clinched playoffs so they weren't playing for anything. This time they are playing for plenty and Philadelphia is 6-0 / 100% ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Dallas beat the Rams last week but were very fortunate as they were outgained by 100 yards. Now they go from the west coast to the east coast for this one and the Philly fans will be rabid for this one. What a time in Philly for the fans. Phillies going to NLCS, Flyers have started season 2-0 under new head coach, Sixers again considered an NBA title contender coming into season, and the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. I only mention that because the passion and energy of the crowd tonight will perhaps be about the highest level you will have ever seen in a regular season NFL game in Philadelphia. I am 100% serious about that and you have the hated Cowboys in town and the Eagles currently firing on all cylinders and the likely QB match-up is early season MVP candidate Jalen Hurts over Cowboys QB Cooper Rush. I am not disrespecting Rush but just saying he was undrafted out of Central Michigan. The Eagles Hurts was a star at Alabama and Oklahoma - traditionally two of the best programs in College Football. Again, I respect what Rush has done with the Cowboys as a game manager but this will be his toughest test yet and if Prescott does play I would expect plenty of rust. Dak was very limited in practice and I really think they are going to wait on him and let the thumb heal more. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6 or -6.5

NFL 10* Top Play OVER 54 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills @ 4:25 ET - I have tremendous respect for the Bills defense and I know they want revenge here and are going to bring their best effort. However, that does not change the fact that we have good weather in Kansas City for this one and the Chiefs (just like the Bills) are one of the best offenses in the league. KC is firing on all cylinders on that side of the ball right now too but I don't trust the Chiefs defense. The Bills should have no problem moving the ball here but likewise for Kansas City. Again, this is a match-up of the two best offenses in the NFL. Now the past big games between these teams, including post-season, certainly is going to up the ante in terms of defensive intensity here. But I just don't think it will matter. These two quarterbacks and these two offenses are just too good. By the way, I know Bills allowed only 3 points versus Pittsburgh last week but the Steelers actually had over 300 yards of passing offense and that was with Kenny Pickett at the controls! Can you imagine what Patrick Mahomes and Company is going to do in this one? Exactly! At the same time the Bills piled up 38 points last week and could have had even more and it was the 3rd time already this season they have topped the 30 point mark. The Chiefs have averaged scoring 32 points per game this season but are allowing an average of 25 points per game. This one turns into a huge back and forth showing between Mahomes and Josh Allen. This is going to be good! Last team with the ball wins...again...just like last year's epic battle! 10* OVER 54 in Kansas City

NFL Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins +3 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - I am a contrarian and it is something that has served me well in the NFL through the years. In this case, the Vikings have been rolling and this line has flipped from Miami being a small favorite to Minnesota being now favored by a field goal on game day. Now of course part of the reason for the move is that  Tagovailoa is still out for this game and Bridgewater is expected to only be the back-up for this game. That means Skylar Thompson gets the start. What everyone is looking at with him is that he struggled last week on the road but I want to mention a couple of key factors with him. This guy had a phenomenal preseason and, even though that is only preseason, it still shows he can move a team down the field. Now this week he got full reps with the first string all week long and will be fully prepared for this start here and this is a home start. Keep in mind, he played his college career at Kansas State which means he faced some tough teams during his college career. This is not some guy coming out of a small college where you have concerns about the level of competition. I really like Thompson to surprise in this game and feel we have phenomenal value here with the home dog. If this game was at Minnesota, no I would not play it. But this is an entirely different situation. On that note, Dolphins on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog. Overall, Miami on a 10-4 ATS run entering this one and Vikings on a 2-6 ATS run entering this one. Dolphins also have covered 8 of last 12 versus NFC foes. 8* MIAMI +3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 53 or 53.5 in Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7 ET - I fully understand the line drop here on this total because Southern Mississippi plays slow on offense. However, no matter how slow they play they are still likely to score at will against one of the worst defenses in the nation. Indeed, Arkansas State known for giving up a ton of points. The one think the Red Wolves can do though is keep things interesting in games with their offense. I know Southern Miss has been involved in a lot of lower-scoring games of late but those were against different teams with much better defenses and a much different style of play than how Arkansas State plays. So don't be surprised, especially with great weather for this one, if we see it get well into the 60s. Note that the Red Wolves are playing for a 7th straight week and all 6 of their games have totaled at least 55 points! Other than the Ohio State game, Arkansas State is scoring an average of 36 points per game. Again, some of their stats are ugly but they will have to be quick on offense here to avoid sack problems and I expect some quick passes to result in some big plays as Southern Miss will be trying to bring the house on defense at times with blitzes. On the other side of this note that the Red Wolves have allowed 38 points per game last 5 games. The Golden Eagles were turnover prone at Troy last week and did struggle against an ACC team (of course!) when they faced Miami earlier this season. But in all their other games this season they scored at least 27 and now they take on a very bad defense and the Eagles are at home for this one. I look for this to be a game that they pour it on in terms of scoring. We'll see a ton of points here and I am taking advantage of the downward line move. 10* OVER 53 or 53.5 in Southern Mississippi

CFB Saturday 8* NC State Wolfpack +3 @ Syracuse Orange @ 3:30 ET - Like the fact that the Wolfpack already have a loss and that it came against a powerful Clemson team. I also like the fact they have a bye week on deck. Conversely, the Orange are undefeated but most of their schedule has been weak. I know Syracuse is off a bye week but they have a huge game at that same Clemson team on deck! The Orange two toughest games recently have been versus Purdue and Virginia. They hung on for the win in each but each were by 3 or less points. I like the fact we are getting the full field goal here and I love the scheduling situation. Yes the Orange will be focused her but they can't help but to be thinking "if we can just win this then we face Clemson as an undefeated team". I think Syracuse gets caught over-thinking it whereas this very strong NC State team already has that first blemish as noted above. So you have a situation where the Wolfpack are playing with less pressure and after their bye week they have a lousy Virginia Tech team on deck. So this means that NC State is fully focused here and I look for the Orange to finally get "peeled" for the first time this season! 8* NC State +3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +4 @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on TCU in this revenge spot here. Revenge is over-played for sure in sports! It is a factor for sure but it is often over-valued. The result is you often can get value on the other side by playing against the revenging team. This is one of those cases. You don't think Oklahoma State is motivated too? Remember both these teams come in undefeated. The Cowboys want to stay that way just as bad as the Horned Frogs do. Also, the last 6 times that OSU has been in a game where both they and their opponent were ranked the Cowboys have won 5 of the 6 games and, keep in mind, we're getting 4 points to work with here too! I love the line value in this one because both defenses, deservedly, are much maligned BUT the Cowboys lead the Big 12 with 3.2 sacks per game. Also, Oklahoma State is leading the NATION (FBS) in tackles for a loss with 10.2 per game. So look for both teams to certainly enjoy some success on offense in this one but look for OSU to be the team making the key defensive plays that will be the difference in this game. Last, but certainly not least, note that Spencer Sanders rates the QB edge over Max Duggan in this game. I know both have strong career numbers and Duggan is also having a strong season again but how did he lose the starting job to Chandler Morris coming into this season. The coach saw something there, right? The only reason Duggan is back in there is Morris got hurt. Now I am most definitely NOT saying Duggan is not a good QB, I am just saying that there is a reason all that transpired and now, in the biggest of games, who would you rather be counting on? Sanders or Duggan? To me we have big edges in this game. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +4

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 57 in SMU Mustangs vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Navy got their triple option attack going in last week's big win over Tulsa. They will carry momentum right into this game as a result and I don't see the Mustangs stopping them. SMU is allowing 39 points per game their last 3 games and they don't see the triple-option attack very often and with last week's game against UCF moved to a Wednesday they did not have much extra time to prepare for this week's Friday game. What Southern Methodist does have going for them though is a potent offense that can destroy a weak Navy defense here. SMU plays fast and will keep the Midshipmen defense guessing all game long with quick strikes and all kinds of different play-calls in their potent playbook. Yes they have a horrible 2nd half against the Knights last week but, prior to that, SMU was averaging 31 points per game. Navy has faced only one team with an attack similar to the Mustangs and that was Memphis and the Midshipmen gave up 37 points to the Tigers in that one. Every Mustangs game this season has totaled at least 58 points and this one will too with very nice weather in Dallas expected as well! 10* OVER 57 in SMU

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders Pick -105 @ Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - When I see a 1-4 team that has lost 4 straight games as a pick'em on the road against a 2-3 team I will be grabbing that road team nearly 100% of the time. The line looks funny, right? This line is telling you that Commanders would be favored by 3 on a neutral field but how can that be when they keep losing every week plus the Bears have the better record? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you! I like to look at scoring stats compared to yardage stats and Washington shows the better true defense even though Chicago shows the better scoring defense. Also, in terms of offensive production, though the scoring is about the same, the yardage stats show the Commanders have a better offense than the Bears. In terms of pass protection and pass rushing based on sacks, Washington also holds the edges over Chicago in both categories. Turnovers have been an issue for the Commanders but they do have the much better passing offense in this match-up and that will lead the way to the road win here over the Bears. 10* WASHINGTON Pick -105

CFB Thursday 8* Central Florida Knights -23 vs Temple Owls @ 7 ET - This line was as high as 28 but is now down to 23 and I love fading line moves. The fact is the Owls just can not score points. They are 2-3 this season but the 2 wins were against a bad FCS team (Lafayette - PA) and an annually horrible FBS team (Massachusetts). You can practically throw the stats from those 2 games out the window. In their other 3 games, all losses, Temple has scored an average of just 6 points per game! I know it looks like they held Memphis in check in their 24-3 loss before a bye week last week. However, the Tigers had a big game on deck versus the Cougars and they were sleepwalking through the first half before they woke up and dominated the 2nd half. With UCF at home and off a big 2nd half versus SMU last week, I don't think we'll see sleepwalking here. Look for the Knights to be ready from the opening kick and they should win this one in a blowout. Of course Central Florida is going to win this game SU and that is worth noting as the Knights are scoring an average of 41 points per game in their 4 victories. So if Temple hits their average here of 6 points or even if fortunate enough to reach their highest point total (14) they have had in any loss this season, that still puts UCF with an ATS win even if the Knights just hit their scoring average. But truly this looks like a game that the Knights should even score closer to 50 than 40. Blowout time! 8* Central Florida -23 

CFB Wednesday 8* Marshall Thundering Herd -10 vs UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams have been solid defensively but have struggled offensively. However, the more I dug into this match-up it is a game in which the home team has a much better shot at getting the offense going. The Thundering Herd are at home and have the better weapons on offense. I also like the revenge aspect here as Marshall lost to Louisiana in their bowl match-up last year in December. Both teams did not play on Saturday of course because of this being a Wednesday game. Look for the Thundering Herd to benefit more from the time off as they have the better coaching and will be very prepared for this home game after some recent disappointment. This is a Marshall team that was able to rise up and beat Notre Dame earlier this season. The Thundering Herd were a 3 TD underdog in that one so it shows what this team is capable of. The Ragin Cajuns were favored by double digits in each of their two road games this season and yet lost both outright against weaker competition. I think this is the right spot for the Thundering Herd to have one of their best games of the season and for the Louisiana road struggles to again be a major issue. 8* MARSHALL -10

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 51.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - There is a reason this total is creeping higher even though there has been a plethora of unders in primetime football this season. This one is going over the total and will be a shootout. When a total is moving up but given all the unders we have had this season you know something is going on here. Note that the Raiders have allowed at least 23 points in all 4 games this season and now are facing one of the top offensive units in the league in the form of the Chiefs. The Raiders have scored an average of 26 points last 3 games and will be good to go here but they are a 7 point dog here for a reason. 34-27 sounds about right and that put this total closer to 61 than the 51 posted in some spots as of early Monday morning. Kansas City has had one low-scoring game at Indianapolis but has averaged scoring 37 points per game in their other 3 games! The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in all 4 games this season and this match-up features two solid offenses but a pair of weak pass defenses. Both teams giving up a pile of yardage through the air and the weather is going to be ideal in Kansas City for this one to feature an all-out aerial assault! The Chiefs put up 48 points on the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium last season and will have a another huge game here. But the Las Vegas offense starting to look better under head coach Josh McDaniels and don't be surprised if they match the Chiefs score for score here. 10* OVER 51.5 in Kansas City

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 47.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The Bengals got their confidence back with a big win over the Dolphins last week. It was big for QB Joe Burrow to have a solid game. I know you see the final score with Miami scoring just 12 points and you think the Bengals defense played well but they did allow nearly 400 yards of offense but two interceptions helped them for sure. Now they face a Ravens offense with the dynamic Lamar Jackson at QB and he is ready to make up for the INT that ended their game last week. The Bengals, prior to facing Miami, faced a horrible Steelers offense, annually bad Jets team, and a Cowboys team with Cooper Rush at QB because of the Prescott injury. Now the Bengals face a revenge-minded Baltimore team that was averaging 33 points per game before running into a Bills team that is arguably the best team in the NFL and certainly has a stellar defense. Ravens lost both games to Bengals last season and they want some payback here at home. They may indeed get it but they will have to lean on their offense to do so. The Ravens defense is among the worst in the NFL this season and remember this fade started last season when they ended the season on a bad losing streak. This Baltimore defense just a shell of what it was in the past. Ravens allowing 425 yards per game this season. That puts them in the same company with winless Texans and the Seahawks and Lions who both have been horrific defensively this season. In other words, the primetime streak of unders is coming to an end tonight. This game will get into 60s is my forecast but at least 50s. Neither team will be able to stop the other on an evening of beautiful fall weather in Baltimore too. Burrow versus Jackson and the scoreboard going to be lit up all night long. 10* OVER 47.5 in Baltimore

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - This is a contrarian play so this write-up will be rather short. Everyone will want the Cowboys here as they have 3 straight  and plus they catch the Rams on a short week off Monday Night Football at San Francisco. Also, everyone has watched LA struggle versus Buffalo and the 49ers in primetime games. So again, the favoritism has been toward Dallas here which is why the line has moved their way. Let us not forget however, the Rams did not even leave the state of California for the Monday Night Game. They also are angry off that loss. Dallas is off B2B divisional wins and has huge divisional game against currently undefeated Eagles in Philly on deck. The Cowboys also traveling west for this one which often does not go well for them. I know Stafford is having a rough start to the season and the offensive line struggled badly against the Niners last week. But I am here to tell you that Los Angeles is going to dig deep for this game and Prescott is still not coming back for this game. It is still Cooper Rush at QB. No offense to Rush but I don't think the Bengals are very good this season and the Commanders certainly are not and the Giants are a team that has not won more than 6 games in about 6 years. So he is going to get tested by an angry Rams defense in this one. I look for LA to really come together strong for this one and get a convincing win. The numbers and trends and stats will not support that. But the NFL is about much more than what people perceive from those things. Rams step up big here and still are well-coached and they do not want to drop below .500 on the season. Look for them to pull away as this game goes on. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -5

NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -4.5 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - This Seahawks is one of the worst teams in the league. They have a horrid defense. I know this team is 2-2 this season but they never should have beaten the Broncos in week 1 as anyone who watched the game knows. It was a fluke win. Then they lost their next two games by a combined score 54 to 30. Then last week they did get the win but allowed 45 points. This Saints team can play defense. Also, Dalton looked solid at QB last week in the loss at London versus Vikings. Dalton played just fine and now New Orleans gets RB Kamara back this week. Also they have a rookie WR who has been excelling and showed good chemistry with Dalton last week and that helps alleviate the concern of WR Michael Thomas again being out this week. Better defense, at home and off a loss and note Seahawks allowing an average of 36 points per game in road games this season and playing the 2nd game of a B2B away from Seattle. Saints have had only one home game and it was against a tough Bucs team. They are going to take advantage of their first home game against a weak foe and then they win this convincingly. 8* NEW ORLEANS -4.5

NFL Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers -8 vs New York Giants @ 9:30 AM ET (London) - The Packers outgained the Patriots by 162 yards last week. Yes was OT win but Green Bay was better than final score indicated. The Pack, based on yardage stats, the better team on both sides of the ball in comparison with the Giants. I know New York has a good record so far this season but I feel a regression is coming. Lets not forget the Giants have not won more than 6 games in a season in many years. New York has been fortunate to win some tight games this season but this one unlikely to be tight. Green Bay just too much for New York. The Giants toughest match-up this season, based on current records, was Dallas and they lost to Cowboys despite being at home and despite the Boys being without Prescott at QB. The Packers, in my opinion, have faced the tougher schedule including Vikings and Buccaneers. Green Bay is a team many consider to be a threat for the Super Bowl this season. The Giants are not expected to be a playoff team and the Packers also have the edge in pass protection here. Look for the favorite to pull away as this game goes on and win this by double digits. 8* GREEN BAY -8

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +4 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET - Love this spot for an underdog upset but happy to grab the points here too. Illinois just won their Game of the Year. The reason I say that is their head coach, Brett Bielema used to coach the Badgers. The Illini just went to Madison last week and beat Wisconsin convincingly on their home turf. Now watch this over-rated Illini bunch come out flat as a pancake for this game. First off, give credit for the win over Wiscy but Badgers nowhere near the team they use to be. Then look at who else this Illinois team has played this season. Wyoming is bad this season, Virginia is bad this season, the Indiana team that the Illini lost to just lost B2B games to Cincy and Nebraska by a combined score of 80 to 45. The other win Illinois has was over an FCS school. Now, I do know that Iowa is off a tough physical battle with Michigan last week. But I also know the Hawkeyes have a bye week on deck and they will go all out here coming off a loss. There is no quit in this physical Iowa team and they will be inspired to go hard for the win in conference action. They did throw for over 200 yards against the Wolverines in a game in which the stats were nearly equal. That is impressive as Michigan is one of the top teams in the country. Look for the Hawkeyes to be able to run and pass better than you would expect against this over-rated Illini defense that could come out flat here too. Iowa hungry off a loss and lets not forget the allowed an average of only 6 points per game first 4 games! That did include a 3 point loss to a solid Iowa State team. The Hawkeyes have only lost once in last 14 meetings with Illini and that includes 8-0 SU last 8. I fully expect that streak to reach 9 here but am happy to take the 4 points as added insurance too. 10* IOWA +4

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -3.5 vs North Carolina @ 4 ET - Remember when everyone was so down on Notre Dame earlier this season? You might be asking what that has to do with this play but, quite a lot actually, and I will explain. The Fighting Irish were on an 0-2 ATS run and 1-2 SU run and off a non-covering win versus Cal after an embarrassing loss to Marshall. Their next game was AT this North Carolina team. Even at Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels got embarrassed. The game was 38-20 entering the 4th quarter and, for the game the Irish outgained UNC 576 to 367. Keep in mind the game was 38-14 before UNC gained 230 yards and scored 18 points over the final 20 minutes of the game after it was already out of hand. The point is that the Tar Heels had one test this season and they failed miserably. Now they are on the road and facing a similar foe. This Hurricanes team is angry and off a bye week. Miami should have beat Texas A & M a few weeks ago - we had the Canes there and they dominated everything but the scoreboard. Then, after that demoralizing loss, Miami came out flat and lost to Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago as a big favorite. Then the bye week last week and now you have an angry Hurricanes team that, by the way, is playing their first ACC game of the season. They are the only team in ACC without a conference game yet. They can still, in theory, go undefeated in ACC. Of course I am not saying they will but the point is that this is the ideal perfect fresh start situation for Miami. Similar to Notre Dame, this Hurricanes defense will give the Tar Heels offense some trouble. As for the UNC defense, it is atrocious and will not be able to stop Miami. The Heels just dominated Virginia Tech but the Hokies are a very bad football team this season. Prior to that, UNC had allowed 40 points per game this season! The Hurricanes open up their ACC season with a big win here as the situation, the home field, and the much better defense all add up to a huge win. 10* MIAMI -3.5 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 64 in LSU Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers @ Noon ET - Tennessee has played two games versus tougher teams and they allowed over 1,000 yards combined in those tight wins over Pittsburgh and Florida. I look for the Volunteers defense to struggle here. I know that Jayden Daniels, LSU QB, is coming off a tough game at Auburn. However, he was having a solid season before that and the Vols will struggle again facing a dual-threat QB. The strength of the Volunteers is absolutely their offense and their QB Hendon Hooker should have another massive game here with his arms and his legs. I just do not see many defensive stops here and though the game could start out a little tightly played - it is an SEC battle after all - I do think this one is going to turn into a wild shootout particularly in the 2nd half. Back and forth high-scoring affair likely in this one! Tennessee averaging 48.5 points per game this season. Tigers were averaging 39.3 points per game this season before last week's tough road effort. They bounce back now at home again for this one! 10* OVER 64 in LSU

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - Rutgers has lost 20 straight Big Ten home games and Nebraska is favored by only 3 points. There is your write-up. All kidding aside the fact is we certainly have history on our side here and I also like the fact that the Scarlet Knights have a big mess at the QB spot. I know they had some good defensive numbers before facing Ohio State last week and most certainly the Cornhuskers are nowhere close to the level of the Buckeyes. However, Rutgers played bad teams in the form of Boston College, Wagner, Temple and also an Iowa team known for its defense not its offense. The point is that the Scarlet Knights defense will be challenged a bit by a pretty solid Nebraska offense here. The other key is that the Huskers defense woke up after the firing of their defensive coordinator and they played very strong against Indiana last week. I know this is a road game on the east coast and it is hard to trust the Cornhuskers on the road but I feel strongly that last week's game against the Hoosiers is a sign of things to come. Also, how can anyone trust a Rutgers team that has lost 20 straight home games in conference action and that has a messed up quarterback situation with injuries, etc? I sure can not! Go Big Red! 10* NEBRASKA -3

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 or 42 in Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:15 ET - We are already starting to see some 41.5 on this game and I know this is a contrarian play but I love the value here. In the Colts first road game this season they had over 500 yards of offense but turnovers did them in a 20-20 tie at Houston. Now, in their most recent game last week, they were at home against Tennessee and managed only 17 points despite over 300 yards of passing offense. Indianapolis was again done in by turnovers. By the way, they could not run the ball against the Titans so they had to throw. A lot of passing is what you want when you have an over and, by the way, the weather conditions will be perfect in Denver tonight. Additionally, the Broncos are coming home angry off a loss. However, the Raiders did expose some holes in this Denver defense you can put Frank Reich, a smart offensive-minded head coach, will be ready to take advantage here. I know the Colts offensive line has not been good this season but Reich is sharp and Matt Ryan is a wily veteran. This offense will have things designed to get rid of the ball quickly and also to utilize misdirection and other elements to keep the Broncos defense a little off-guard. Also, if Denver brings the house on blitzes they can get beat deep. This Colts team still has plenty of talent to get the ball to downfield. Everyone is looking under in this game and I totally get it based on the results so far this season. But you know what usually happens when the masses are all looking one way on a game. I feel strongly that Denver at home is finally going to have that breakout game on offense that we've been waiting for. When they played at Seattle to open the season they had over 400 yards of offense but just did not have the points to show for it. This is a value spot on a low total as Russell Wilson is going to end up in an aerial show with the other QB veteran, Ryan, in this one and I feel strongly that we will see more fireworks than most are expecting. Remember the Broncos defense faced some struggling offenses to start the season. Then they ran into a talented Raiders offense and struggled last week. The Colts, prior to that gut-wrenching loss to Jacksonville to end last season, were on a run in which their 13 games before that saw them average 30 points scored per game! That is over 13 games. Not a short-term run. Do you really think they have fallen that far from one season to the next? No, their passing yardage has been there but they must cut down on turnovers. I think Reich is going to have a great gameplan here but I also expect a huge game from Wilson and the Broncos at home. Take advantage of the line movement here. 10* OVER 41.5 or 42 in Denver

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 62.5 in Central Florida Knights vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - I really wanted to play Central Florida here. Gus Malzahn is the head coach of UCF and spent many years at Auburn coaching in the toughest conference in College Football, the SEC. Conversely, Rhett Lashlee has a grand total of 4 games of head coaching experience and it is all here this season with SMU. However, I am going with the over because I just can't trust the Knights defense here. I do feel Central Florida will pile up plenty of points as the Mustangs defense is a proven weakness. However, this SMU offense is for real. It is proven to be ultra dangerous and they play fast. The Mustangs have allowed 38 points per game last two weeks. The Knights have lower point totals allowed this season but Georgia Tech, despite scoring only 10 points, threw for over 300 yards against them last week. In their only other challenging game, UCF faced Louisville and lost 20-14 but again there could have been a lot more points as the Cardinals both ran AND passed for over 200 yards in each category. The Mustangs are averaging 38.5 points scored per game this season but UCF seeking revenge for a 55-28 beatdown last year at SMU. Indeed the Knights might get their revenge but I don't trust the D enough to lay the short number at home. Simply put, this game should be all about the fireworks on offense! 10* OVER 62.5 in Central Florida

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +1.5 or +2 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Motivation is so important when professional players are paid many millions to play the sport they love. Guys still sometimes don't have it. They come to the game not fully prepared mentally and they pay for it. That is what happened when the defending Super Bowl Champs opened the season against the Bills and got thoroughly embarrassed on national TV with the whole world watching. Los Angeles got caught still celebrating the Super Bowl victory and thinking a little too much of themselves entering the new season. What does that have to do with this game you might ask? A helluva lot! This is the Rams first chance since then to redeem themselves on the big stage. No one likes to be embarrassed. This is Monday Night Football. It is a division rival. The defending champs will bring their "A game". Now I am not here to tell you this Rams team is as good as last year because they are not. However, they are still better than the 49ers. Yes San Francisco has a great defense but the Rams have a solid defense too, to say the least. Also, LA is particularly strong against the run and the Niners are not a good passing attack (as per usual). So this is where the final key comes in. Rams QB Stafford and the overall LA passing attack ranks the edge over the Niners in that department for sure AND it was Stafford that got embarrassed too with a rough game against Buffalo on opening night. Redemption time here and I know some will point to the revenge angle here for Niners from last year's playoff loss. But these teams just plain don't like each other AND the Rams had actually lost 6 IN A ROW to the Niners before that playoff win. So there is still some payback to be served here and SF has scored less points this season than LA has the past two weeks. Stafford stats the past two weeks are 45 of 61 for 521 yards and 3 td vs 2 int. Garoppolo only 31 of 50 for just 365 yards with 2 td vs 1 int. Also Jimmy G got sacked 4 times last week. Stafford just once each of past two weeks. The Rams ability to move the ball better through the air is the difference in this game. The motivation because of getting drilled on opening night of season on national TV is the other as they show the world the Rams are still a force to be reckoned with by delivering a Monday night bounce back and improve to 3-1 while trying to bury the rival Niners and knock them down to 1-3 on the young season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +1.5 or +2

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs scored just 9 points when Andy Reid and company met Tom Brady and company in Feb of 2021. You can bet that NO ONE in this Chiefs organization has forgotten and KC is fired up for this game. Tampa Bay's defense has been great this season but they have not faced an offense like this just yet. Plus Kansas City is off a loss at Indianapolis last week. Chiefs are in a foul mood and will be raring to go here. Trouble for Chiefs? I do not trust this defense one bit. I just don't. Too many times I have seen them scorched and they are not that good away from home either. The defense that is. The offense is just fine. But when KC defense does not have the home crowd behind them they just don't seem the same. So Tampa Bay has not looked good on offense so far but they have faced a trio of solid defenses. No one can question how good Dallas and Green Bay has looked on that side of the ball and their other opponent was the Saints who have solid defensive stats too. The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in all 3 games this season and I know their stats on defense are "okay" but the 3 teams they have faced have a total of 3 wins in 9 games this season. This Bucs team is 2-1 this season and on their home field and ready to attack coming off a 14-12 loss to a tough Green Bay defense last week. I look for this game to prove to be much more wide open than many are expecting here. 10* OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +2.5 or +3 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - The betting markets still don't believe in Denver. The Broncos should be 3-0 this season already. They absolutely dominated the Seahawks in Week 1 but were handed a tough loss despite a massive yardage edge. The Raiders, on the other hand, continue to get the respect of the markets despite being 0-3 on the season. They were chasing for the entirety of the game at Tennessee last week as they got down to the Titans and that had to try to battle back but it was too little too late. It takes awhile for a new coach, Josh McDaniels, to get his team all on the same page and Las Vegas is now 0-3 both SU and ATS this season. I know the Broncos have not scored well this season but this offense can still produce and has Russell Wilson at the controls. Their offense is also more well-balanced than a Raiders offense that relies so heavily on the pass. Also, the Broncos are, without question, the much tougher defense. That sets this one up well for an upset victory but I am happy to grab the 2.5 or 3 points being offered in this one as of very early Sunday morning. Another key for me here is that the Broncos have lost 4 straight in this series. They want this game and they have the QB now, in Wilson, to get the job done and lead them to victory on the road here. Raiders have failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they have been a home favorite. 10* DENVER +2.5 or +3

NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Coming into this season the Jaguars were expected to notch about 6 wins and the Eagles about 10 wins. Now with the Jags off to a surprising start the betting markets have over-reacted and you have this game priced in a way that indicates Eagles would only be favored by a FG over Jacksonville on a neutral field. I am not buying it! This Eagles team is for real and was forecast to reach double digits in wins for a reason. Jalen Hurts put in a lot of off-season work and it has paid major dividends for him and for these Eagles. Now they are at home and laying less than 7 against a Jags team that is a perennial loser. I am not saying the Jaguars with Lawrence at QB and Pederson at head coach deserve respect. They absolutely do merit respect. But they are still not the same talent level right now as this Eagles team. Philly has a game out West at Arizona after this. They know they must make the most of this home game. They got 9 QB sacks last week. The Jags have been great in pass protection so far but this is a different animal they are facing this week! Also, remember all the turnovers the Eagles generated in their only other home game this season versus the Vikings! Jacksonville has covered just 3 of last 11 overall and 3 of last 11 when in road dog role too. Also, Jaguars incredible 4-30 ATS against NFC teams long-term. The Eagles have covered 5 in a row as a home favorite and I love the line value here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 9:30 AM ET in London - I am well aware of the QB situation for the Saints but with Winston having some turnover issues the fact that Dalton and Hill will be the QB options for New Orleans here may not be such a bad thing. Also, the Saints outgained the Panthers substantially last week at Carolina including by nearly 200 yards through the air but they were done in by turnovers. The Vikings hung on to beat Detroit last week but they did lose the stats battle there. Remember their last road game was at Philly and they got destroyed by the Eagles. I have a strong feeling the Saints win this one outright given all of the above. Statistically, they are the better team on both offense and defense so far this season but have been done in by turnovers. Watch Dalton and Hill both produce well for the Saints offense in this one. Grabbing the generous points here. 8* NEW ORLEANS +3.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 62.5 in Oregon Ducks vs Stanford Cardinal @ 11 PM ET - The Ducks got a 44-41 road win last week and now are back home and weather conditions perfect for this one. Unseasonably warm evening in Eugene and a perfect scenario for plenty of points here. The Ducks are a big favorite for a reason and will dictate the tempo and plus the Cardinal don't just always try to ground and pound anymore like the days of old. I don't see the Ducks taking their foot off the gas in this one either no matter the score. That's because last season they were holding on to a late 7 point lead but allowed a late score and then Stanford beat them in overtime by a TD. Ducks seek redemption here and their offense is flying high right now. Oregon has scored 52 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Cardinal just allowed 40 and 41 points in their last two games. Stanford is averaging 30 points per game so the offense has some confidence too. But the defense is likely to be shredded here. Keep in mind though the Ducks are allowing 31 points per game this season and that even includes a game against an FCS school. The Cardinal should hang around enough in this game to force the scoring to keep going. The Ducks will be relentless for the reasons I noted above and that is why this one getting into the 70s would not surprise me in the least. But we should at least eclipse low 60s. 10* OVER 62.5 in Oregon

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -8 @ Auburn @ 7 ET - Laying 8 points on the road when in a rivalry game with a history of home team dominance? Must be crazy, right? No, in this case it makes all the sense in the world. LSU has Jayden Daniels at QB and his lower back strain is a minor one and he left last week's game because it was a blowout moreso than it being an injury concern. As for Auburn, the QB situation is much different and is ultra concerning. They ended up being down to their 4th string QB last week and barely got a win versus Missouri last week. Auburn's TJ Finley is listed as doubtful but likely to miss this game and was unable to practice. With Zach Calzada now out for the season, that means Robby Ashford gets the call here. He has 1 TD and 2 INT so far this season and now faces the toughest defense yet. I do not expect this to go well for Auburn given their injury situation at QB and LSU is also 3-1 just like Auburn. But LSU comes in rolling off 3 straight wins and their only loss was by a single point in week 1. Auburn comes in struggling with a blowout loss to Penn State two weeks ago and a nail-biter win last week. LSU has double revenge for home loss last season in this match-up and for ugly loss here at Auburn two years ago. This one is going to go a lot different for sure. Road rout here. 10* LSU -8

CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 @ Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - This is a tough spot for Baylor in my opinion. They started the season at home, then went all the way to Utah to face BYU, then home again, then north Iowa to face Iowa State, and now back home again. They face a talented Oklahoma State team that is coming off a bye week. Not only that, they have revenge on their minds from last year's Big 12 Championship Game loss to Baylor. They actually won the yardage battle by about 100 yards in that one but were done in by turnovers and they failed to win despite being favored by nearly a TD. That said, how do they do as a road dog? The last 7 times they have not lost the money a single time! One push and 6 covers as an away puppy and given they have the scheduling edge and the revenge, love the Cowboys in this spot. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +2.5

CFB Saturday 8* OVER 52 in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 12 ET - I am expecting Purdue QB Aidan O'Connell to go here in this one but I know he is listed as game time decision. Even if he did not go, note that Boilermakers did notch 21 first downs in last week's non-covering win without him. The key here is that I feel the Golden Gophers defense is a little over-rated. At the same time, Purdue's defense is a weakness and they will not be able to stop this potent Minny attack. But the point is that Minny's defense, while deserving of praise, has feasted on a New Mexico State team that scored 8 points per game in first 4 games this season as well as an FCS school Western Illinois as well as a bad Colorado team that has averaged 12 points per game so far. Though they also faced Michigan State, the Spartans deserved much more than 7 points but were done in by 3 turnovers in the game. Again, this Minny D is very good but some of their stats have been helped by the schedule greatly! If O'Connell is not back here I still think Boilermakers score enough to get this over the total. Last week's experience without him would help in that regard. However, the bigger key is that the Gophers will be piling up points like crazy in this one. The Boilers defense is a proven concern so far this season. 8* OVER 52 in Minnesota

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies -2.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 10:30 ET - I know the Huskies are certainly not known for being Pac-12 road warriors but they are every bit deserving of their #15 ranking on the season. On that note, UCLA is 0-12 SU the last 12 times they have faced a team that is ranked #15 or higher and many of those games were at home just like this one is. Also, the Bruins also lost all 12 of those games by at least 3 points. So, with us laying 2.5 points, this is indeed a 12-0 / 100% SPOT in favor of the Huskies! Look for that streak to reach 13 in a row here. The Bruins did beat a #16 LSU team last year so I do want to note that but this other streak has been triple checked and I like it a lot! UCLA known for struggling to seal the deal in the biggest games. What I really like here is the way former Indiana QB Pennix has thrived in Washington. This is his 5th year so he is loaded with experience. Thompson-Robinson certainly commands respect for the Bruins as well but I feel we have the better overall team in this match-up. The Huskies have faced tougher teams the past two weeks with games against Michigan State and Stanford. Those match-ups certainly tougher than the Bruins facing South Alabama and Colorado. The fact is the Buffaloes are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 while the Jaguars are a Sun Belt team who, by the way, nearly had the Bruins beat here at UCLA in that match-up! The hosts had to rally to win the game in the 4th quarter. So UCLA won the game by 1 point in a game in which the yardage was nearly equal and in which the Bruins trailed by 8 points going to the 4th quarter. Huskies have faced the tougher schedule and have looked better in doing so. I know those games have been at home but the Huskies can win on the road too and they are loaded with confidence right now. 10* WASHINGTON -2.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Statistically the Dolphins are one of the top teams in the league for passing offense but one of the worst in terms of pass defense. That is the perfect set up for an over and we also have beautiful weather expected tonight in Cincinnati so both offenses can have the playbook wide open for this one. Love the fact that the Bengals have had all 3 of their games stay under the total and the Dolphins have had 2 of 3 stay under. This means we have a value spot here and sure enough the posted total has moved a little lower and I already felt it could have been higher. Bengals did not score well in the home loss to Pittsburgh to open up the season but they had 432 yards of offense in that game! Cincinnati will have another big performance in what is just their 2nd home game of the season but this time they will have more points to show for it. Keep in mind the Dolphins just faced a #1 ranked Bills defense and another one of their games was against a Patriots defense that has been solid in terms of yardage allowed this season. The point is that this Miami offense, their passing attack, is legitimate and will put pressure on this Bengals defense but I look for Cincinnati to match them score for score in what should be a wide-open and high-scoring affair. QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle both were on the injury list as questionable but both expected to play here and I think the way they were handled this week is more precautionary than anything else. 10* OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati

CFB Thursday 10* OVER 59.5 in BYU Cougars vs Utah State Aggies @ 8 ET - The Aggies have disappointed so far this season and that is why this total has been dropping. Two key points to that though. Utah State is not going to stop this ultra-dangerous BYU offense. The Aggies have a veteran QB in Logan Bonner who had a fantastic TD-INT ratio coming into this season. He is off a very ugly game against UNLV in terms of turnovers but he will bounce back here. The Aggies will score some points but they are a 24 point dog with good reason here. That said, I love the over in this spot. BYU has seen 3 of their 4 games total more than 60 points this season. The Aggies, other than the game against Alabama of course (yes, Utah State had to face the Crimson Tide this season), have had better yardage in games than points to show for it. I feel that changes here. Utah State will be excited for this big game facing BYU as THE Thursday game this week and they will want to make the most of it. They will score some points as a result but, again, just not stopping a BYU team that has put up some huge numbers statistically on offense other than the tight relatively low-scoring OT win over Baylor. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Brigham Young games on the season. Also, I like the fact the weather is very mild and will be great weather for the offenses to fully operate tonight in Provo, Utah. 10* OVER the total in BYU

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +1 @ New York Giants @ 8:15 - It is hard to stay undefeated in the NFL for very long. This is the final game of week 3 and only the Dolphins in AFC and Eagles in NFC are 3-0 teams. The point is that the Giants have a chance here too as they are 2-0 but it shows you how odds are stacked against this happening considering there are 32 teams in the league and all but 3 of them have at least 1 loss on the year. Aside from the "odds factor" here, I am playing Dallas in this one because their defense really impressed in the week 2 win over the Bengals and I also liked what I saw from Cooper Rush at QB. Yes it has hurt the Cowboys that they are without QB Dak Prescott but they still are a very talented team that annually is a threat for double digit wins in recent years. Conversely, the Giants have annually been a threat for double digits losses for half a decade now. New York has played better than expected and is 2-0 to start the season but I still don't trust QB Daniel Jones. After a good rookie season he had nearly as many INTs as TDs the past two seasons combined. I know he is off to a good start this season but he is going to face a tough challenge here with the way Dallas can get after the QB. I expect the Cowboys to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Also, Cowboys have won 9 of last 10 games against Giants. Also, Dallas has covered 6 straight games in divisional action. The Cowboys, long-term, on a very strong ATS run and that opening game primetime embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay has them primed for a much better effort on the road in this primetime affair. They can know up the Giants for a tie for 2nd place in the division with a win here. Yes it is early in the season but you can bet the Cowboys are very hungry here while Giants dealing with a little extra pressure to remain unbeaten and they are at home and facing a nemesis and coming off B2B dramatic tight wins. 10* DALLAS +1

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers have a good defense no doubt but San Francisco has seen bad offenses so far this season. Bears one of worst offenses in league and that opening week game at Chicago was played in rainy conditions. Then in week 2 the Niners faced a bad Seahawks offense. Seattle, like Chicago, will likely end up being one of the worst teams in the league this season. Now I know what your thinking...the Broncos lost to that bad Seattle team in week 1. However, Denver outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards and that was simply a bad beat for people that backed them - just like I did win week 1. That was a Monday night game and a big one for Russell Wilson in his return to Seattle. So the Broncos QB and the entire Denver team had a bit of a lackluster effort against a bad Texans team ad playing playing on a short week last week. Trust me, they'll now be ready for this primetime affair and they are not getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Broncos also have a good defense just like the Niners do. The difference is the 49ers lost QB Trey Lance to a season-ending injury and Jimmy G was the back-up for a reason. He gets the start again here and the SF offense just is not that good no matter who is at QB. The Broncos have the better weapons and they have the better QB in Wilson. Add it all up plus the home dog value here and I am all over this one! 10* DENVER +1.5