Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #325 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - No offense intended to former Redskins QB Kirk Cousins but the results speak for themselves. The Vikings signal-caller had played his entire career with the Redskins prior to coming to Minnesota this season. That is noteworthy because Washington for the past 7 seasons ended their year with a loss (SU and ATS) whether it was a regular season game (5) or a playoff game (2). Full disclosure, Cousins was only the QB for 4 of those games but the point is that all 4 games were losses both SU and ATS and he certainly does NOT have a reputation as a winner in the biggest of games. This is a huge game for the Vikings. Win and they are in the playoffs. However, they face a Bears team that still has a chance to improve their seeding for the post-season and Chicago also would love to eliminate a division rival from making the post-season. That said, while the betting markets continue to back the Vikings here (line keeps moving up), I am happy to grab the value on the other side. The fact is that much is being made of Minnesota's improvement on offense since they made the switch at offensive coordinator. However, the Vikings two wins came against the Dolphins and the Lions. Those teams are a combined 12-18 on the season and Miami is truly even worse than their 7-8 record indicates. Either way, two wins over two losing teams is important to note because Minnesota is 0-5 SU this season against teams that are in the playoff field (Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Saints, and these same Bears). The point is that now you have the Vikes laying nearly a full TD against a playoff team and they have not even beaten a playoff team this season! Also, Cousins reputation is not exactly one that exudes confidence in a potential "win or go home" game like this. Give me the Bears plus the points all day every day in a situation like this one! 8* CHICAGO

Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles post-season hopes are still alive. With a win here at Washington and a Vikings loss Philadelphia makes the playoffs. Certainly teams never try to worry about what the other teams are doing but, in the back of their minds, Eagles players know that a Minnesota loss is at least "possible" as the Vikes are playing an 11-4 Bears team that also still has motivation for playoff seeding purposes. Even without that, Philly would be going "all out" here as QB Nick Foles has stepped right in for the injured Carson Wentz and resumed his late season "magic" once again just like he did in last season's run that led to being Super Bowl Champions. The Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games. The injury-depleted Redskins, once atop the NFC East not so long ago, have certainly gone the other direction. Washington has lost 5 of its last 6 games and this one has the makings of a road rout with Philadelphia fully capable of dominating the trenches on both sides of the ball. In terms of technical support here, the Eagles are 10-4 SU (and 9-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Redskins are 0-3 SU (and ATS!) in their last 3 meetings with the Eagles and all 3 games were decided by a double digit margin. Look for that to be the case again in this one as well! Also, an interesting note here about Washington is they are 0-7 SU (and ATS!) in their final game of the season the last 7 years! 5 times it was a regular season game and 2 times it was a playoff game. All 7 seasons ended with a SU (and ATS!) loss and all 7 defeats came by 8 or more points. Considering that fact as well as the extremely injury-ravaged condition of the Redskins current roster, this one looks to take that "season-ending" ATS losing streak to 8 in a row! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #253 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners @ 8 ET in Orange Bowl @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL @ 8 ET - Yes this total looks big but, ladies and gentlemen, these are two ultra talented offenses loaded with talent and also buoyed by excellent play-calling. The Sooners are averaging 49.5 points per game and scored 45 points against the vaunted Crimson Tide D when these teams met in the 2013 Sugar Bowl. Alabama is averaging 47.9 points per game this season and will take advantage of an Oklahoma defense that has been so bad this season they even fired their defensive coordinator mid-season. The Sooners D showed some improvement immediately after the DC was terminated but they've reverted to their poor play soon after. Though they held Texas to "only" 27 points in their season finale, they previously allowed 47 points in their 4 prior games. The Crimson Tide allowed 24.5 points per game their final two games this season and did allow 31 points versus Arkansas earlier this season. They now face their toughest test yet and this one turns into a back and forth shootout with the scoreboard lit up early and often. The over is 10-3 in Oklahoma's games this season and 9-4 in Alabama's games this season. This is the first time this season that the Sooners have been a dog and that is a situation that saw them go 3-1 to the over the past two seasons. As a neutral field favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, the Crimson Tide have gone 5-1 to the over. Look for more of the same here in a wild one! 10* OVER the total in Alabama

Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #256 Saturday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Cotton Bowl @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX @ 4 ET - Doesn't it seem surprising to see an undefeated team that statistically has played the tougher schedule installed as a double digit dog? As expected, the public sure thinks so! The Fighting Irish have received plenty of attention in terms of number of tickets written but the sharp money (including mine!) is on Clemson here. The Tigers have the playoff experience and are so strong in the trenches! I look for the Clemson defensive line to be particularly dominant in this game and that will be a key. The Tigers last 8 games featured one rare poor game defensively against South Carolina (but Clemson still won by a 21 point margin) but the other 7 games saw them allow just 9.9 points per game! The Fighting Irish have covered only twice in their last six games. Notre Dame was somewhat fortunate in their win at USC to close out the regular season and that was the 5th time this year that the Irish have been held to 24 points or less. The Tigers have NEVER been held below 27 points this season and they've played 13 games. In fact, in 10 of those games they scored 35 points or more. Knowing how dominant the Tigers defense is and how dynamic their offense is, this one is going to turn into a rout. It may stay close early but look for Clemson, as per usual, to exert their dominance as they wear down Notre Dame as the game goes on. The Fighting Irish are on a 6-13 ATS run in bowl games. The Tigers are 11-4 ATS (including 5-1 this season) when they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Tigers head coach Swinney is 8-3 ATS in bowls and they're looking to make up for last year's loss in the CFB finals. Fighting Irish coach Kelly is just 3-4 SU and ATS in bowls. Advantage to the big favorite here all the way around and I expect a blowout rout. 10* CLEMSON

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #249 Saturday 8* Florida Gators (+) vs Michigan Wolverines in Peach Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA @ Noon ET - Florida went 4-0 SU and ATS in non-conference games this season while Michigan went 1-2 ATS. The Wolverines are also an ugly 1-4 ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. The Gators are 4-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Michigan enters this bowl having failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. A number of Wolverines players are out for this game including RB Karan Higdon. Look for them to still have a bit of a hangover too from the demoralizing season-ending blowout loss to Ohio State. Gators head coach Mullen is 5-2 SU in bowls. Michigan head coach Harbaugh has a losing record in bowls after being the lone Big Ten to lose in the bowls last year. Look for the Wolverines to continue to be a disappointment here. 8* FLORIDA

Game of the Month Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #244 Friday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Syracuse Orange @ 5:15 ET in Camping World Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - The Mountaineers were favored by a TD before QB Will Grier announced he was skipping the bowl. While the absence of star QB Grier is significant, we've now seen a 10-point swing on this line as West Virginia has gone from a 7 point favorite to a 3 point dog. The Mountaineers TEAM is not made up of just ONE player. Also, the QB that West Virginia will use is not some guy they just picked up yesterday off the streets. 6'6 Jack Allison is a sophomore whom played in multiple games this season. Trey Lowe III, a 6'2 freshman, will also be available. With the extra practice time afforded by all the bowl practices the Mountaineers have an "wide open playbook" for this one per coach Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia is aware of the line on this game. They are aware that no one is giving them a chance in this game without Grier. Yes I am aware of WR Gary Jennings JR and offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste also being out for this game. However, the Orange defense (which was already a MAJOR weakness of the team) is expected to be without a defensive end, defensive tackle, AND defensive back for this bowl game! Syracuse does have a strong offense but, from playing the high-flying Big 12, West Virginia is certainly used to facing high-paced dangerous offenses. The Mountaineers are also highly motivated here because, as noted above, no one is giving them a chance in this one. The Orange are just 2-3 SU in their last 5 games away from home. West Virginia went 3-1 away from home this season prior to a tough 4-point loss at Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers went an undefeated 3-0-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Orange went only 2-2 SU against teams with a winning record this season. I am happy to fade the masses here as Syracuse plays in the ACC. Think about it. Who impressed in the ACC this season other than, of course, Clemson! The Orange are over-rated and the Mountaineers defense, constantly ridiculed, gives one of its best efforts of the season today to support the Grier-less offense. 10* WEST VIRGINIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #241 Friday 8* OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Auburn Tigers @ 1:30 ET in Music City Bowl @ Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN - Mild weather expected in Nashville for this one and I am expecting plenty of points. The Boilermakers allowed 36 points per game in their November games. The Tigers allowed 29 points per game in their final 6 SEC games. Auburn also may not be that excited to be here as they certainly had higher hopes entering this season and have played in much bigger bowls in recent seasons. That could lead to a bit of an underwhelming effort from the defense in this one and the Purdue offense thrived this season. The Boilermakers should score plenty here. The issue for Purdue is their defense was not as strong this season as last year and that is why I am expecting a back and forth shootout to result here. The Boilermakers averaged 317.8 passing yards per game this season but also allowed 280.8 per game through the air. Auburn generally trends under but Purdue, the team that is more excited to be here, is likely to dictate the tempo of this game and I expect a fast pace to result as the Boilermakers look to put the Tigers on their heels early with plenty of quick strikes down the field through the air. The over is a long-term 32-18 (including 5-2 in recent seasons) in Purdue games with a line between +3 and -3. The Boilermakers are a long-term 7-3 to the over in December games. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Purdue

Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CFB Game #239 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Vanderbilt Commodores vs Baylor Bears @ 9 ET in Texas Bowl @ NRG Stadium in Houston, TX - No weather concerns here as NRG Stadium has a retractable roof should it be needed. I look for plenty of points in this one as, prior to their final two games, Baylor had gone through a 6-game stretch where they allowed an average of 40 points per game. The Vanderbilt offense is rolling with confidence entering this game. The Commodores wrapped up the season averaging 37 points per game their final 4 games. Vanderbilt, just like Baylor, does have some concerns on defense too. The Commodores, prior to their season-ending win over Tennessee, had allowed 27 points or more in 7 of their previous 8 games. The Bears had over 400 yards of offense in 3 of their last 4 games this season. Long-term the over is 4-1 in Vandy's bowl games. Long-term Baylor is 16-9 to the over when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games. All 3 of the Bears non-conference games totaled at least 57 points and none stayed under the total! Look for more of the same here as both teams are riding the momentum of huge performances in their final game of the regular season that gave them each bowl eligibility to get here. Look for a back and forth high-scoring match-up as a result as neither defense has been overly impressive this season and we've got a manageable total to work with here. 10* OVER the total in Texas Bowl

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #235 Thursday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 1:30 ET in Independence Bowl @ Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA - Temple has an interim coach but it the same interim coach they had for their bowl game after the 2016 season. In other words, there is still some continuity here. Also, the Owls dominated on defense for much of the season. Temple allowed 19 points or less in 8 of their last 12 games. Taking a look at the Blue Devils defense, they allowed 329 rushing yards per game their last 5 games. In other words, they faded badly as the season went on. Also, a key player on defense, Jon Giles-Harris, is still being bothered by a knee injury and the Duke linebacker is questionable for this game. Yes, the Blue Devils played a tougher schedule than Temple did but they wrapped up the season with back to back losses and the Blue Devils are the type of team that, when they get in a funk, it often continues. In fact, Duke is 4-11 SU the last 15 times when off a loss in conference action. Also, the Blue Devils are 6-11 SU (including 1-3 SU this season) when facing a team with a winning record. Temple is 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Owls are also 11-2 ATS (including 4-0 ATS this season) in games played on turf. With QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead both upgraded to probable for this game. Look for the Owls to take advantage of a Duke defense that faded as the season went on. 8* TEMPLE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #231 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Minnesota Golden Gophers in Quick Lane Bowl @ Ford Field in Detroit, MI - The Yellow Jackets option attack is always tough to defend, even when teams have extra time to prepare for it. That said, Georgia Tech is likely to enjoy some success with their ground attack here made even more dangerous by virtue of playing this one indoors on artificial turf. Also, run defense was certainly not a strength of Minnesota this season. However, don't be surprised if the Golden Gophers answer the Yellow Jackets score for score in this one. Minnesota didn't throw the ball much at Wisconsin in their season finale but that was because they jumped out to a 17-0 lead. Note that, prior to that game, the Gophers had averaged 275.7 passing yards per game in their 3 prior road games and that included a game at Ohio State. This Minnesota team will take advantage of a Yellow Jackets defense that certainly does not have pass D as a strength. Georgia Tech opponents completed 65% of their passes with 22 TDs against 12 INTs. The over was 3-0 this season in Jackets non-conference games. Also, when Georgia Tech is a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, the over is 8-3 their last 11. The Golden Gophers, prior to their season finale against the Badgers, had gone 3-1 to the over in their 4 prior road games. Also, Minny wrapped up the season scoring an average of 32 points per game in their last 3 road games. Overall, the Golden Gophers scored 28 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in the Quick Lane Bowl

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #131 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders should give plenty of effort here with this possibly their last game in Oakland - they're moving to Vegas in 2020 and where they play in 2019 is still up in the air. That said, the Raiders will go all out for the full sixty minutes here but they don't win games with their defense. Oakland has allowed 30 points per game this season. In their 6 true home games this season they've allowed an average of 33 points per game. In other words, the key for the Raiders to win their game will be production on offense. That said, the Broncos numbers on defense away from home were helped by playing at Cincinnati and at Arizona for two of those games. In their other 5 road games this season, Denver allowed 26.6 points per game. As for the Oakland offense, they've averaged 266.3 passing yards per game the last 3 weeks. Also, the Raiders have averaged scoring 22.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Broncos are off back to back low-scoring losses and that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Prior to losing to Cleveland and at San Francisco, Denver averaged 27.7 points per game their 6 previous games. The over is 4-1 in Oakland's last 5 games. The over is 3-1 the past 2+ seasons in Raiders home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The over is a long-term 42-28 when the Broncos enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. I am well aware of the Broncos current long-term under streak. But also like taking the over based on all the facts above including Denver's last two losses both being low-scoring efforts. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - While it may surprise some that the Chiefs are favored here considering the Seahawks long-term success at home, do note that KC is on a 16-5 ATS run as a road favorite. I like the fact that we can take the Chiefs off a loss here. Kansas City has yet to lose two straight games this season. The Seahawks are off a loss as well but they've already had a pair of 2-game losing streaks this season and this is a tough match-up for them. Seattle is going to have trouble keeping up with the #1 rated offense in the league. The Seahawks pass protection is much worse than that of the Chiefs. KC is 5-1-1 ATS on the road this season and also a long-term 21-9-1 ATS in games against NFC West opponents. Seattle is on a 3-7 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a regular season. The Chiefs are averaging 39 points per game on the road this season. The Seahawks have been held to 28 points or less in 10 of their 14 games this season. The Chiefs have scored 30 points or more in 10 of their last 14 games. While the Seahawks have the better defense in this match-up they've also been fortunate in terms of yardage allowed compared to points allowed. Additionally, their defensive edge over Kansas City is not nearly as significant as the Chiefs offensive edge over Seattle. Lay the small number with the away team and look for a road rout in this one! 10* KANSAS CITY

Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #127 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers passing offense ranks as one of the best in the NFL. The Saints pass defense ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. The Steelers offense has under-performed recently due to key mistakes at the wrong times. The Saints defense has looked better than it really is because they faced some struggling passing attacks that certainly aren't on the level of the Steelers. The point is that we're getting great value on this total as a result because Pittsburgh should have a huge day through the air. When the Saints have the ball you'll see one of the top balanced offenses in the league go to work and their point totals have been down in recent weeks but, once again, this leads to value here. New Orleans is going to take advantage of a Steelers defense that has given up at least 272 passing yards in 3 straight games! Prior to the win over the Patriots, Pittsburgh had allowed an average of 27 points per game in their 3 prior games. The over is a perfect 3-0 this season in Steelers non-conference games. Also, the over is a long-term 13-6 in Pittsburgh's games against NFC South opponents. Saints games are a long-term 41-25 to the over when they are at home and the posted total is 49.5 points or more. N.O. is on a current streak of 4 straight unders but this is adding to the value here by keeping this total lower than it should be. I would not be surprised to see this game finish with a cumulative total in the sixties as this turns into a back and forth shootout. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans  

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Sunday 7* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys rate as the superior defense in this match-up but, statistically, the Buccaneers have the edge on the offensive side of the ball except for one key variable: turnovers. Tampa Bay has been done in by turnovers this season but they actually have moved the ball quite well for most of this season. As a result, we're getting solid line value here with the Bucs as a big dog and all the pressure on the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is playing for price and will play loose and relaxed. Dallas is still trying to lock up the NFC East after getting blasted 23-0 at Indianapolis last week. The Cowboys have an NFC East rivalry game next week at New York against the Giants so they really want to clinch the division this week. That is why, as noted above, all the pressure is on Dallas here. The Cowboys have a history of late season struggles and that includes their current long-term run of 40-62-4 ATS in December games. The Buccaneers are on a strong 8-3 ATS run when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're matched up with a team with a winning record. They've got a great shot at being the spoiler here. Even though the Cowboys won 5 straight games prior to last week's loss, all the games were decided by single digits with an average margin of victory of just 5.4 points. The Bucs have failed to cover only 1 of their past 5 games. 7* TAMPA BAY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #114 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Eagles are rejuvenated with Nick Foles taking over for the injured Carson Wentz and coming off the biggest Eagles upset win in 33 years last week. Philly took down the Rams in Los Angeles as a double digit dog for their biggest underdog upset victory since 1985. The Eagles are still very much alive in the playoff race but they need this win Sunday over the visiting Texans. Houston is 6-13 SU against NFC East opponents and also has not covered any of their 3 games against NFC East teams this season. Also, Houston is on a 1-8-1 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a regular season. The Eagles are on a 14-5-1 ATS run in games played against AFC opponents. Philly is on an 11-6 ATS run when, past the midway point of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. So this match-up features a team that generally fades late against a team that has been "bringing it" in late season games. The Texans last 4 road wins came against teams that, entering Sunday, have a combined 21-36 record on this season. Now they face the defending Super Bowl champs that are fighting for their playoff lives and also playing their final home game of the season. The Eagles are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This strength along both the offensive line and defensive line is a key to beating a team like the Texans. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #124 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) vs Baltimore Ravnes @ 8:20 ET - Yes the Ravens have won 4 of their last 5 games. However, all 4 wins came against teams currently in last place in their respective divisions. Atlanta and Tampa Bay are tied for last place in the NFC South. The Bengals are in the cellar in the AFC North and the Raiders are in the basement in the AFC West. Those 4 teams are a combined 18 games under .500 on the season! However, all these recent wins for Baltimore are helping to keep this line lower than it should be and I won't hesitate to take advantage with a Chargers team that still has a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC post-season picture! The Ravens are 2-4 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Chargers are 3-0 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record this season. Considering LA is also at home for this one and the line has dropped to a -4 as of early Saturday morning, there is great value with the small home favorite. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #222 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Noon ET - The absence of QB Sam Hartman and WR Greg Dortch is very significant for the Demon Deacons whereas the absence of RB Darrell Henderson for the Tigers is made up for by the fact they have another very talented runner in Patrick Taylor. Wake Forest finished the season with a blowout win at Duke but, prior to that, the Demon Deacons had allowed at least 316 passing yards in 4 of their 5 prior games. Wake Forest was so torched through the air in their two games just prior to the Blue Devils win, teams didn't have to run the ball on them well. But do not that prior to that the Demon Deacons run defense allowed 253 yards per game. The Tigers, even without Henderson, have Taylor and Tony Pollard and will do plenty of damage against this struggling run defense. The Demon Deacons went 2-7 ATS in games played on turf this season while the Tigers went 7-4 ATS on turf and will take advantage of the fast track at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL. Wake Forest is also on a 1-4 ATS run when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games while Memphis is on a 4-2 ATS run when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. The Tigers defense got embarrassed in their loss at Central Florida 3 weeks ago (the 2nd time they blew a double-digit 2nd half lead against the Golden Knights this season) and they will make up for that here. 10* MEMPHIS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #219 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in BYU Cougars vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 4 ET in Idaho Bowl - Western Michigan will be without QB Jon Wassink in this one but back-up QB Kaleb Eleby now has 4 games under his belt.  Also, the the extra preparation time thanks to bowl practices will help have QB Eleby well-prepared for this game.  He should get plenty of support from the running back duo of Jamauri Bogan and LeVante Bellamy in this one.  The solid running game will force BYU's defense to respect the ground attack which will open up opportunities for Eleby downfield.  Chilly weather in Boise (as you would expect for mid-late December) is in the forecast here but it will be seasonal (truly not that cold since it is a day game) with light winds and no precipitation allowing both offenses to have fully open playbooks for this one on the fast track at Boise State's home stadium.  Western Michigan allowed over 250 rushing yards in 4 of their games this season.  Also, the Broncos pass defense was exploited for at least 247 yards through the air in 5 of their last 9 games.  Western Michigan allowed 43.3 points per game their last 4 games.  BYU's offense finished strong and averaged 35.7 points per game in their last 3 games.  Also, in their game at Boise this season the Cougars threw for nearly 300 yards and that was against a Boise State Broncos pass D that certainly is much more talented than the Western Michigan Broncos pass D!  The Cougars are banged up at the running back position (including Matt Hadley being out for this game) but this will lead to Brigham Young relying even more on the passing game.  An emphasis on the aerial attack is what you want when playing an over.  As a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, BYU is 27-18 to the over.  Western Michigan is 17-9 to the over when playing with extra rest (off a bye week or prior to a bowl game).  The over is 3-1 in the Broncos last 4 games played away from home and all 3 of those games totaled at least 77 points.  Western Michigan has scored at least 34 points in each of their last 5 games away from home but their defense will struggle to stop the Cougars in this one.  The result is a high-scoring shootout.  10* OVER the total

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #215 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in South Florida Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 8 ET - I am aware of the Blake Barnett injury but I don't see him missing this game and he should be ready to go. He already shed the walking boot this past weekend. The USF QB should enjoy success against a Marshall defense that has allowed 30.7 points per game in its last 3 road games. However, the Bulls defense also has an issue here. South Florida has allowed 39.8 points per game their last 5 games. USF has particularly struggled against the run and Marshall's ability to establish the ground game here also allows them to open things up through the passing game. Although there is rain and wind in the Tampa area early today the field is covered and should be in great shape for this game. The wind and rain both expected to subside by the time this game kicks off. Couple that with the fact that this total has dropped and I like the value we're getting here with two very capable offenses (and questionable defenses) doing battle. The over is 5-1 in Marshall's road games this season and the over is on an 11-2 run in Thundering Herd non-conference games their last 13. The over is 5-2 when USF is an underdog and also 9-4 when the Bulls are facing a team with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in South Florida

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #213 Wednesday 8* Ohio University Bobcats (-) vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - Ohio University has lost 5 of 7 against Mountain West Conference opponents. San Diego State is undefeated all-time against Mid-American Conference opponents. 13 wins and 1 tie in 14 meetings with MAC foes. That said, the odds makers are clueless, right? They made Ohio University the favorite in this match-up. This is a gift, right? While this will be the prevailing thought among many bettors, of course neither of those statements are true. Long-time followers know how I feel about situations like this and I expect the Bobcats to prevail and get a huge win in this win. Keep in mind this is not the same Aztecs team we've seen in recent seasons while Ohio University wrapped up the season going 7-2 SU in their last 9 games. In fact, while the Bobcats were very impressive in beating Buffalo 52-17 late in the year (and have now scored 49 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games), San Diego State has dropped 3 straight to end the season even with Chapman and Washington back! Also, 2 of the 3 losses were home games against UNLV and Hawaii where Aztecs were double digit favorites and lost outright! The once vaunted San Diego State defense has allowed 447.3 yards per game their last 3 games. The past 2+ seasons, the Aztecs are 3-9 ATS in games played against teams with a winning record. The Bobcats, in the same period of time, are 7-1 ATS in games played against teams with a winning record. 8* OHIO UNIVERSITY

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #211 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) vs UAB Blazers in Boca Raton Bowl @ 7 ET - The location of this bowl game (Boca Raton, FL) certainly favors the Blazers. However, the Huskies have faced a much tougher schedule this season UAB has. This is leading to some significant line value here with Northern Illinois. Additionally, I like the way the Huskies rallied against a quality Buffalo team to win the MAC Championship Game on the final day of November. Of course UNI is known for their quality defense but to see them comeback like they did against the Bulls also says a little something about the offensive capability of this team. The Huskies average points per game their last 11 games has been held down by two poor performances (vs Mia-OH and @ BYU). In the other 9 games, Northern Illinois has averaged scoring 25.8 points per game. The Huskies have a strong ground game on offense but it was also impressive to see them throw for 300 yards in the MAC Championship win over Buffalo. UAB has the better record on the season but has faced the much softer schedule and I look for the Blazers to be exposed in this game! Also, UAB is 0-3 (SU and ATS) in games played on grass and 0-2 (SU and ATS) in games against MAC opponents. UNI is a long-term 25-13 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Also, the Huskies are 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) this season in games against teams with a winning record. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach NFL Game #331 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - Perfect weather for an over tonight in Charlotte with light winds, clear skies, and mild temperatures. Additionally, a very favorable line move on this total has led to solid line value with the over in this match-up. While it is true that this is a divisional game with playoff implications, it is also true that the over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 in Carolina's last 5 home games. The over is also a perfect 3-0 in the Saints last 3 Monday Night games. Additionally, this line has been bouncing between 6 and 6.5 on New Orleans as the favorite. That is noteworthy as the over is 13-1 in Panthers games against NFC opponents when they are a home dog of more than 6 points. Look for Carolina to rise up big and put up plenty of points here at home as they seek playoff revenge from last year's post-season loss. However, the Panthers won't be able to stop the potent offense of New Orleans. The Saints scored 31 in the playoff win over Carolina and also scored at least 31 in each of the two regular season meetings with the Panthers last season. The Panthers are 13-5 to the over in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Carolina

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #329 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - Carson Wentz is out. Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles steps in. Yes the Eagles are having a rough season and nothing has seemed to go their way but they still should not be this large of a favorite in this Sunday night game when you consider a number of factors. First off, Foles has certainly shown he is the type of player capable of rising to the occasion. Secondly, the NFC final wild card spot is still up for grabs so the Eagles are not without motivation here. Thirdly, the Rams have covered only 2 of their last 10 games! They continue to be over-inflated by the betting markets. Los Angeles is 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 home games too! This is a revenge game for the Rams as the Eagles beat them here in LA last season. However, under coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 2-5-2 ATS (just 2 covers in 9 tries) when they are at home playing with revenge. Philadelphia is 10-6 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. Also, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS when off a divisional loss. Yes the Eagles are banged up but they still have plenty to play for here and one should expect a huge effort in a prime-time game with their season still having hopes of a push for a wild card spot. The Eagles won't quit until the final whistle here and the point-spread is inflated. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #327 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Crazy late game finishes have resulted in 2 of the Steelers last 3 games staying under the total. Pittsburgh's kicker fell down on a field goal that would have tied last week's game and sent it into OT where then a score would have sent the game over. Two weeks prior to that the Steelers threw a pick in the end zone in the final minute of a game when they were near the goal line and a TD would have resulted in the game going to OT and over the total. That helped to keep this total this week a little lower than it should be as the Steelers have piled up an average of 320 passing yards per game their last 6 games! The issue for Pittsburgh is they've given up nearly 300 passing yards each of the past two weeks and now they face an angry Patriots team. You know Tom Brady and company are angry after the last season Miami Miracle win that the Pats watched unfold on the final play of the game. The Patriots did it to themselves though by not scoring enough points when they had the opportunity. In other words, they won't take their foot off the gas this week and with decent weather expected for this game thanks to light winds and the rain being finished earlier in the day, this game should turn into an absolute shootout. The Patriots are averaging 300.5 passing yards per game their last 6 games and both these teams average right around 300 passing yards per game on the season. New England has allowed at least 36 points in 5 of their 7 road games this season. In fact the Pats allowed at least 31 points in 4 of those 5 away games! The over is 9-5 when the Patriots, in the 2nd half of a season, are facing a team with a winning record. Also, the over is 11-2 in the Steelers last 13 home games. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #326 Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - This is the Niners final home game against a division rival this season (host NFC North foe Chicago next week) and I look for them to make the most of it. San Francisco is catching Seattle at the right time to spring the upset. The Seahawks are off their Monday night win over Minnesota that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Now the Seahawks are on the road and on a short week and are facing a 49ers team that has averaged 345.5 passing yards per game their past two games! The first of those two games was at Seattle and the Niners outgained the Seahawks by 121 yards but lost 43 to 16 on the scoreboard. That is a statistical anomaly that we can now take advantage of in terms of public perception this week. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS as a divisional home dog of more than 3 points when facing a team off a SU win. Yes the Seahawks got a big win over the Vikings Monday but Seattle went 2-6 ATS in their final 4 regular season games the past two seasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Both teams are off key divisional wins but the Colts are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when they are off a game versus the Texans. Also, Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS when they are at home off a divisional game and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .600. Remember too that Colts head coach Frank Reich used to be with the Eagles and helped lead them to their Super Bowl victory last year. You can see how Philadelphia is now struggle without Reich and the other key factor here is that he knows the Cowboys well from having spent the past two season as an offensive coordinator with Philly. In the 3 meaningful games against the Cowboys (remember that season-ending one last year was meaningless), Reich led the Eagles offense to average 29 points per game against the Cowboys in his two seasons with Philadelphia. He and the Colts will get the job done again here in a key game for them while Dallas falls flat after yet another big victory aided by the officiating..a recurring them in recent games for the Cowboys. Reality finally sets in this week on the road. 8* INDIANAPOLIS

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Bengals vs Oakland Raiders @ 1 ET - Late season game between two teams that have had very disappointing seasons and that also possess two of the worst defensive units in the league. When you also factor in that weather will be very mild in Cincinnati this afternoon (temperatures reaching into the 50s) and that the winds will be light and no precipitation is expected, you have the perfect set-up for an over. In terms of technical edges, note that Oakland is 17-2 to the over in when they face a non-divisional AFC opponent that is off B2B SU losses. Also, the Bengals are 5-1 to the over this season in games with a point-spread range between +3 and -3. The Raiders have averaged scoring 24 points per game their last 4 games but also have allowed 29 points per game on the season. The Bengals have allowed 34 points per game their last 7 games. Also, Cincinnati did average a solid 25.5 points per game in their first 6 home games this season before they were held to just 10 points in their most recent home game. The Bengals bounce back big here and take advantage of Raiders weak defense particularly off that upset win of the Steelers last week. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Southern Eagles (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 5:30 ET - Eastern Michigan is 0-3 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Georgia Southern is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. Eastern Michigan had a late season bye and that doesn't necessarily help them here as they will be playing for just the 2nd time since their November 10th win versus Akron. Also, Eastern Michigan is 1-12 ATS when they face an opponent off B2B SU (and ATS) wins. That system fits here as Georgia Southern finished off the season with back to back wins and covers. Unlike Eastern Michigan, Georgia Southern did have a game on Saturday November 17th. This should lead to a little less "rust" for them in comparison with Eastern Michigan. Army, a ground-based attack like Georgia Southern, completely dominated time of possession in a win at Eastern Michigan in late October. Look for Georgia Southern to dominate in similar fashion with their option attack in this game. Eastern Michigan was 3-0 SU to finish the season but they benefited greatly from turnovers in those 3 games. Nothing close to that is likely to happen here as Georgia Southern has done a great job in the turnover department all season long. The ATS trends noted above are 19-1 / 95% in our favor here. 10* GEORGIA SOUTHERN 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs Houston Texans @ 4:30 ET - The weather is very nice for mid-December in East Rutherford, NJ. The winds will not be an issue, there will be cloud cover but no rain, and downright balmy temperatures around 50 degrees for this one. Not only that, Jets QB Sam Darnold is listed as probable for this game and should be even better in his 2nd game back (after returning at Buffalo last week). This time Darnold is at home and he and the Jets should be able to take advantage of a Texans pass defense that has allowed nearly 400 passing yards in EACH of its past two games. Houston has now allowed over 250 passing yards in 5 of its last 6 games. The flip side of the equation here is also good news in terms of expecting an over in this match-up. The Texans, prior to being held to just 21 points versus the Colts last week, had averaged 29.4 points per game in their 5 prior games. Houston's offense should have no trouble bouncing back from the home loss to to Indianapolis and putting up a ton of points on a Jets defense that has allowed 34.8 points per game in its last 4 home games. The Texans are 3-0 to the over this season when off an ATS loss in a game that was decided SU by a margin of 5 or less points. The Jets are a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last 5 games against AFC South opponents. That is since the start of the 2016 season. Prior to that, the Jets also 3-0 to the over in games against the Texans. Combined trending of 11-0 / 100% PERFECT here in favor of a high-scoring match-up. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - This is contrarian all the way. The Chiefs have won 9 straight meetings with the Chargers and yet opened up as only a 3-point favorite at home here. Of course the line has already gone up a little (3.5 as of early game day morning) but an upset is likely here. The Chargers out-gained the Chiefs by nearly 200 yards in the first meeting in Los Angeles but fell short on the scoreboard. Payback time here. LA is on a 12-3-1 ATS run as a road dog in divisional games. Kansas City is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #133 Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks are off a huge win and have won 3 straight games. However, Mike Zimmer's Vikings are finally getting a shot at revenge after that unbelievable playoff loss (missed chip shot FG) ended Minnesota's season. Note that Zimmer entered this season with ATS records of 25-9 when playing with revenge and 11-1 when facing an opponent off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Here Zimmer's Vikings catch Seattle off a 27 point thrashing of the 49ers. Also, in games 13 through 16 of a season Minnesota has gone 8-1 ATS as a road dog when they are facing an opponent off a home game. This game is sandwiched between divisional games for the Seahawks as they are off the Niners and then play them again at San Francisco Sunday. Seattle is 1-6 ATS in games played week before facing SF. The Seahawks were actually outgained by more than 100 yards by the 49ers last week but won the game thanks to 3 turnovers. In fact, Seattle's defense has not impressed and they allowed 28 points per game their 4 prior games and certainly should have allowed much more than 16 versus the Niners last week. Minnesota's defense did struggle at Foxboro last week versus the Patriots but, prior to that, they had been rock solid and I am expect them to return to top form in this crucial game filled with post-season impact. Grab the points  here but expect the upset. 10* MINNESOTA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #119 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - Yes it will be cold in Chicago - as you would expect in mid-December - but no precipitation and light winds means that both teams will have the full capabilities of the playbook in this one. The key for the Bears is getting Mitchell Trubisky back at QB and the fact that they're facing a Rams defense that certainly has not impressed overall this season. As for the Los Angeles offense however, that is another story entirely. The Rams are a juggernaut when they have a ball and, keep in mind, this Bears defense did struggle against QB Aaron Rodgers (remember that 2nd half performance even though he was hurt) as well as QB Tom Brady this season. The point is that, as good as the Chicago defense has been, they have struggled when facing strong passing attacks. QB Jared Goff and company certainly fit the bill in that regard plus they also have Todd Gurley at RB which gives them an extremely balanced offense which, in turn, keeps defenses off balance! In their final 4 games of the regular season the past two years, LA has gone 7-1 to the over. The Bears are 4-0 to the over this season in games played against teams with a winning record. I mentioned Chicago's pass defense struggles against better passing attacks this season and note the Bears also gave up 251 passing yards versus TB, 246 passing yards versus Minnesota, and 380 passing yards versus Miami. This is in addition to the big performances Rodgers and Brady had against this defense. Look for a huge game from Goff here. The Bears are averaging 31 points per game their last 9 game and the Rams are scoring an average of 35 points per game on this season. Take advantage of the downward line move in this one as it should fly over the total. 8* OVER the total in Chicago

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Yes the Cowboys have a rest edge here. However, they are off a huge upset win of the Saints. Also, the Eagles lost to Dallas in Philadelphia 4 weeks ago. The revenge-seeking Eagles are 15-5 ATS as a divisional road dog. The road team is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 games in this series and Philly has covered 3 of their last 4 games at Dallas. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS when off a game against the Redskins. Also, Philadelphia is gaining confidence with back to back wins for the first time this season as the Super Bowl champions look to get their swagger back. They can tie up the Cowboys for 1st in the division with a win here so there is no concern that it is "too late" in the Eagles locker room. Could the Dallas upset of the Saints leave the Cowboys a little flat here? Note that the Eagles, in divisional games, when facing an opponent off a SU home dog win, have gone 7-1 ATS! Last but not least, when head coach Doug Pederson is off a divisional game (beat Redskins last week) and playing with revenge, has gone 5-1 ATS with the Eagles. Yes I am aware of the injury issues for the Eagles secondary but look for the road dog to rise up here after the embarrassment of that home loss 4 weeks ago with their powerful defensive line play being the difference in this rematch. On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz and company had over 400 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the first game and also did it again with over 400 yards versus the Redskins last week. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #131 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The weather will be favorable in Oakland and this match-up features two teams who will play at a fast pace in this match-up. The Steelers have thrown the ball 150 times in their last 3 games while running it just 44 times. Look for Pittsburgh to get a big lead here and then Oakland will be forced to play catch-up and the only way they can do that is through the air. The Raiders have averaged 24 points per game their last 3 games and threw for 271 yards last week while completing 29 of 38 passes. The issue for Oakland is they can't stop teams as the Raiders have now allowed 34 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Oakland's last 3 games. The Raiders are also 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games against AFC North teams. Of course the Steelers are going to be very hungry here and won't take their foot off of the gas after back to back frustrating losses. That holds some significance for sure here because Oakland is actually 17-1 to the over in when they face a non-divisional AFC opponent that is off B2B SU losses. Look for a shootout to develop in this one as that 94% angle gets the cash again. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #121 Sunday 8* New York Giants (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - I am aware of the fact that Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr is out for this game. However, the Redskins are in far worse shape as they are down to their 3rd string QB and dealing with an injury-depleted offensive line. That said, I also like the fact that the Giants are seeking payback for a home loss to the Redskins in late October. Note that New York head coach Pat Shurmur entered this season 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off a divisional game (Washington was at Philadelphia last week) and also 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off B2B SU losses (the Redskins have lost 3 straight). Additionally, the Giants are 12-1 ATS in divisional games when they are on the road off a non-divisional SU win and facing a team off a SU loss. New York is also 4-0 ATS in games played on grass this season. Washington is 11-22 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football. Look for the short rest to again be a factor for the Redskins as the Giants, supported by their 32-3 (91%) ATS trends noted above, roll to a road rout in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Texans have only truly played well in terms of pass defense once in their past 5 games and that was because that was the game that opposing QB Alex Smith suffered that devastating ankle injury on the 1st drive of the 3rd quarter. That completely changed the complexion of the game. That said, other than that game, the Texans have allowed an average of 296 passing yards per game dating back to their October 25th game hosting the Dolphins. The point is that Andrew Luck and Company should have another big game against this Houston defense just like they did in the late September match-up in Indianapolis. The Colts are off a shutout loss but threw the ball 52 times (against just 16 rushes) last week. Of course an emphasis on passing is great for an over and Indy getting shutout last week is definitely a fluke result that is helping to give us some line value this week. Indianapolis entered that game having scored an average of 33 points per game in their 8 prior games! The Texans enter this game having scored an average of 35 points per game in their last 3 home games! The Colts are a perfect 4-0 to the over in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. 8* OVER the total in Houston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #103 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Navy Midshipmen vs Army Black Knights @ 3 ET @ Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA - It doesn't matter that it was a "soft open" if you will, this is still quite impressive. The first book to post the total on this game offshore opened it up at 52.5 and it quickly got pounded down. Why? It has everything to do with the long history of unders (12 in a row!) in this series history. Of course, as you can see, I am well aware of this history. However, do you really think the initial projections on this total were that far (a dozen points) off the mark? Also the weather will be chilly in Philly but light winds and no precipitation so there are no issues from Mother Nature today. Long-term the over is 14-8 in Army games when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Black Knights are 35-23 to the over in games against teams with a losing record. The over is 4- 2 in Navy's last 6 games and they have averaged 30 points per game their last 3 games. The Midshipmen defense has allowed 35 points per game this season. I know that when these teams match up there tends to be less scoring because they run similar offensive styles and are so familiar with one another. However, you can see from those numbers that it is highly unlikely that Navy is going to enjoy success in stopping Army this season. Also, the Black Knights have averaged scoring 32.5 points per game in their last 10 games. Additionally, in all games this season where Army was either an underdog or a single digit favorite (as they are here), they allowed an average of 22 points per game. 10* OVER the total

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - The Jaguars have had a disappointing season but that makes games like this, at this late stage in the season, even more important. In other words, here is a chance to really put a dent in the playoff hopes of a hated divisional foe. You can bank on Jacksonville wanting to make the most of this primetime opportunity with the entire NFL world watching. These are the games that see underachieving teams rise to the occasion. Riding the momentum of a shutout win over another division rival (Colts) last week, look for another strong effort from the Jags this week. Yes, Cody Kessler's career numbers at QB may not impress but he played the last two seasons in Cleveland. In other words, cut Kessler a little slack and also look for Leonard Fournette to help take some of the pressure off with some big runs. In terms of technical support here, the Jaguars are 9-1 ATS when they have a losing record, are entering a game off a SU win of less than 7 points, and are facing a divisional foe that is off a non-divisional match-up. That system fits perfectly here. Also, Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS when they are off a game versus a divisional foe in which they scored less than 7 points! Last but certainly not least, the Jags are a stellar 11-2 ATS when they dogs of less than 6 points and off a game in which they allowed less than 10 points. Look for the road dog, very strong defensively, to get revenge for the upset loss to Tennessee at home early this season as a double digit favorite. even if the Jaguars fall short of the outright win over the Titans, look for the points to still prove to be enough for the cover in this one. Supported by combined ATS trends of 28-3 (90%) per the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #380 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are a very banged up team and the Eagles will take advantage. We're getting line value here because it has, without a doubt, been a sub-par season (to put it mildly) for the defending Super Bowl Champs. The fact is that, with a win Monday night, Philadelphia moves into a 2nd place tie with Washington in the NFC East and will be just 1 game behind the Cowboys. That said, guess what is up next on the Eagles schedule. A trip to Dallas on Sunday. In other words, the season is still very much alive for Philly despite the ups and downs they've endured. The Redskins offense is loaded with injuries and it is much more than just QB Alex Smith's devastating injury that has them in trouble here. Washington's offensive line has practically been gutted by injuries. The Eagles powerful defensive line will take advantage. Note that Philadelphia is 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) in home games with an O/U posted between 42.5 and 45 points. Also, the Redskins are on a long-term 10-23 ATS run in Monday night games including 0-5 in recent seasons! The Eagles saved their season with last week's comeback win over the Giants and the way they played that 2nd half is the way they will come out and attack the Redskins right away beginning with the opening kick-off in this one. The result should be a home rout for the much healthier offense in this match-up. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #353 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers pulled off the unbelievable last Sunday. Pittsburgh scored just 17 points on 527 yards of offense. I remember it vividly (and sickeningly) as the Steelers Over was my Top Play last Sunday. The final nail in the coffin (among 4 Pittsburgh turnovers) was when the Steelers ended up blowing a 1st and goal from the 3 opportunity in the final minutes by throwing a pick in the end zone on a horrible pass from Ben Roethlisberger. Just a completely stupid pass that never should have been thrown and that cost me a sure totals winner. But we get our money back this week as the Steelers offense is likely to again move the ball very well (especially now that they are back home) but this time look for a lot less in the way of turnovers and missed opportunities. Not only should Pittsburgh put up a ton of points, Philip Rivers and Company certainly are going to be hard to stop. The Chargers offense has plenty of momentum after scoring 45 points last week and this match-up features two of the top passing offenses in the league. The over is 10-2 in the Steelers last 12 home games. Also, when Pittsburgh is a home favorite of more than 3 points against an AFC foe and it is after Game 6 in a season, the over has gone a stellar 10-1 in Steelers games! I know the Chargers have trended under in recent games as well as in December games the past two seasons but this particular match-up is set up perfectly to be a Rivers vs Roethlisberger shootout. The loss of LA running back Melvin Gordon to a knee injury means that Los Angeles will rely even more heavily on the pass in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #376 Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - The Patriots have won 7 of their last 8 games and when they win SU they almost always cover. The SU winner in New England's games this season is, in fact, 10-1 ATS this season and I fully expect a dominating home win and cover here. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also have gone 8-2 ATS in December games the past two seasons. The Vikings wins this season have all come against teams that currently have a losing record on the year. In their 3 games against teams that currently have a winning record on the season, Minnesota has gone 0-3 and all 3 losses came by 5 or more points. Those Vikings losses came against the Bears, Saints, and Rams. As for the Patriots they've played 4 games against teams that currently have a winning record. New England has gone 4-0 in those games and only one win came by less than 7 points. The average margin of victory in those 4 games was 8 points. The Pats have beaten the Colts, Texans, Bears, and Chiefs. I'll take the team that has risen to the occasion when its been required this season and I feel we're getting good value here as the spread on this game has dropped through the week. The Patriots are 12-1-1 ATS when they are off a divisional road game and now facing a non-divisional opponents. Look for the Pats to do it again Sunday after last week's blowout win at New York against the Jets. Note that last week's win for the Vikings over Green Bay was the first time in 5 tries that Minnesota has covered a game following a divisional game. After that big win over the Pack, look for the Vikes to fall flat here against a Patriots team on a typical December "mission" as the Pats are known for late season success, especially at Foxboro! 10* NEW ENGLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #371 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:05 ET - The Raiders aren't going to be able to stop the Chiefs highly potent offensive attack in this one. However, I also expect the Kansas City defense (allowing 34 points and 457 yards on the road this season) to give up some big plays to the Oakland offense in this one. The result should be plenty of points here and so I am happy to go contrarian here and fade the downward move we've seen on this total as of early game day morning. Note that the over is 5-1 in KC's road games this season. Also, each of the Raiders past two games have gone over the total and the Oakland defense has allowed 30 points per game on the season. The Chiefs defense has allowed at least 21 points in all 6 of their road games this season. Couple that with the fact that Kansas City's offense is averaging 37 points per game on the season and you can see why I am expecting this game total to finish with close to 60 points. Grab the value as the Raiders will move the ball on the road-adverse KC defense but simply can not stop Mahomes and Company here. 8* OVER the total in Oakland 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #358 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 1 ET - Grab the money line in this one if you have access to it. As of very early game day morning the spread on this one is in the 2.5 point range but the Falcons are available in the -125 range on the money line which is a great value compared to laying the points. I look for Atlanta to bounce back strong here after a Thanksgiving night loss that saw them lose by 14 at New Orleans despite out-gaining the Saints. The Falcons were simply done in by turnovers but that is unlikely to happen again here. The Ravens have been horrible when it comes to forcing turnovers. Also, Baltimore enters this game having turned the ball over 6 times in their last 3 road games. The Ravens are off back to back wins but both games were at home and plus they faced the floundering Bengals and Raiders! Now Baltimore is on the road and facing a Falcons team that is MUCH better than their 4-7 record would indicate. The Ravens are on a 1-7 ATS run in games played on turf. Also, Baltimore is on a 2-8 ATS run in games against NFC foes. The Falcons are 14-8 ATS in games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 49 points and also 3-1 (SU and ATS) when off a loss to a division rival. The home team bounces back STRONG this week as they also have the rest edge over the Ravens since they played on Thanksgiving and Baltimore played on Sunday. 8* ATLANTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #317 Saturday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Boise State Broncos @ 7:45 ET in MWC Championship Game at Albertson's Stadium in Boise, ID - The Broncos continue to find a way to get past the Bulldogs in recent meetings despite the great improvement we've seen from Fresno State recently. I feel strongly however that Boise State's "luck" runs out here. The Broncos are a great team but they are not on the level they were in other recent campaigns. Though Boise State has beaten Fresno State in each of their 2 most recent meetings, the Bulldogs have had a lead in each of the last 3 games (including leads at half-time and beyond and into 4th quarter) and yet have lost each of the last 2 games. It is payback time here. I know that Boise has the location edge here but the Broncos strength is their passing game and Fresno State has a strong pass defense. That said, the key edge here is the Bulldogs potent passing attack going against a Boise State pass defense that has struggled at times this season. Winds will be light for this game so despite chilly temperatures and some light snow or light rain, the passing game can flourish with no impact expected from wind here. That said, the Bulldogs hold a big edge thanks to being the much better pass defense. Finally they get their revenge here.  Boise State is 1-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. Fresno State is 12-2 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Road team revenge here for the Bulldogs. 10* FRESNO STATE

Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #319 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in ACC Championship Game: Clemson Tigers vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC @ 8:00 ET - There is rain in Charlotte today but it is expected to be lighter when game time rolls around for this one. Also, the winds are expected to be light and temperatures rather mild. The key to the value here is that Clemson's D is so strong that the Panthers will be forced to get their yardage through the passing game. Also, Pittsburgh is likely to be playing catch-up in this game so they'll be forced to the air for that reason too. Note that Panthers QB Pickett has thrown more the past two weeks and that included a huge 23 for 30 performance for 316 yards and 0 ints and 3 tds. Clemson's offense is one of the most efficient in the nation and, keep in mind, the Panthers allowed and average of 593.5 yards in games against Duke and Central Florida. In other words, the Tigers should move the ball very easily in this match-up and they won't take their foot off the gas either. Why? Because their only loss in their national championship season in 2016 came against Pittsburgh 42-41. This is a payback spot for Clemson and they've scored an average of 51.1 points their last 7 games. In other words, the Tigers could actually get this total all by themselves. However, I do feel we'll get plenty of contribution from a Panthers team that, prior to last week's ugly loss at Miami (clearly they were disinterested), had averaged 40.8 points per game their 4 prior games. Plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in ACC Championship Game

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #308 Saturday 8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-) vs UAB Blazers @ 1:30 ET in Conference USA Championship Game @ Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, TN - Those who follow me know I love contrarian plays and going against the line moves. Of course it is never automatic but, when the situation is right it is the case of a "perfect storm" as you get additional line value plus "fade the masses" at the same time. That is what I am doing again here in this particular game on Saturday. The line has gone from Middle Tennessee -3 to now being just a pick'em. Yes, I know this is a revenge game for UAB as the Blue Raiders just crushed the Blazers last week but revenge is certainly not automatic. The fact is that Alabama-Birmingham has major issues on its offensive line and those are not all resolved in the span of just one week. That said, last week the Blazers offense totaled 89 net yards for the game in this very same match-up! That said, I wouldn't trust UAB here with monopoly money! In road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points, the Blazers are 4-7 ATS (and 2-9 SU!). The Blue Raiders have played a tougher schedule this season and are 8-3 SU and ATS this season in games played on turf. They get the job done again here. 8* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns in Big 12 Championship Game @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - Big mistake by the odds makers, right? They made Oklahoma more than a TD favorite here even though each of the 3 most recent meetings have been decided by 5 or less points. Of course it is not a "mistake" folks. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points with the Sooners here but, of course, it is not without good reason. These teams last met on October 6th and that 3-point loss for Oklahoma ended up getting their defensive coordinator fired. Though the Sooners defense has been "up and down" since then, they have not forgotten the loss to UT as well as the subsequent dismissal of their DC. Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU since that defeat and the average margin of victory has been 14 points. I am expecting an OU win by at least that margin in this "rematch" game! The Sooners are 12-6 ATS in games against teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Texas is 3-7 ATS when the Horns enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. 8* OKLAHOMA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday 8* Utah Utes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ 8 ET in Pac-12 Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - The Utes are dealing with injury issues at QB and RB but they gained a lot of confidence with last week's comeback win over BYU. Utah was actually down 20 late in the 3rd quarter and then came all the way back and won the game 35 to 27. That game, of course, was not a factor in the Pac-12 so the fact the Utes closed that game strong gives them plenty of momentum now heading into the Pac-12 Championship. Of course this is a contrarian play as the early line move has gone the way of Washington. That is because of the injury situation for Utah as well as the fact that the Huskies beat the Utes by two touchdowns earlier this season. However, note that Washington has since gone 1-7 ATS as a favorite (last week's win at Washington State was a dog). I like the fact that the Utes are on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog and 14-5 ATS run in games played on a neutral field. Utah has turned the ball over just once in its last 3 games while the Huskies turned the ball over 3 times against the Cougars last week. Washington has now turned the ball over 7 times in its last 4 games away from home. The Huskies have held the upper hand in this match-up in recent years but payback is on order for the Utes in this one. Utah has forced 11 turnovers in it last 4 games away from home. The Utes are 13-2 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage under .850 that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Huskies, off that 13 point win at Washington State, fall short of the cover in this one and I am expecting an upset but grabbing the generous points being offered. 8* UTAH

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 New Orleans Saints (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are 10-0 SU their last 10 games and 9-0 ATS their last 9 games. While the Cowboys certainly deserve some respect here, I am happy to lay the points here (currently some 7's available as of Wednesday evening) with one of the best and most balanced offenses in the league. Not only does that describe New Orleans, the Saints also are the #1 rush defense in the NFL! That is significant here because the Cowboys are one of the worst passing teams in the leagues. Dallas relies on Ezekiel Elliott and the ground game for success on offense and that is a problem here. Not only is Elliott up against the #1 ranked run defense, he also has been a little bothered by his hip heading into this game. Elliott is probable but is he really 100%? It may not matter anyway as the Saints are just too much offense for other teams to keep up with. The fact is that New Orleans is firing on all cylinders right now and I also like the fact that the Saints are 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more this season. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, the Saints are a long-term 9-3 SU and ATS in their last dozen meetings with the Cowboys. Dallas has won 3 straight games and faced the Redskins, Falcons and Eagles. The Cowboys average margin in those 3 games was 6 points. The Saints also have recently faced the Falcons and Eagles plus also faced the Redskins in early October. The average margin of New Orleans 3 victories was 26 points - a 20 point variance from the Cowboys margin. The fact is I would not be surprised to see the Saints win this one by 20 but certainly I am expecting at least a double digit margin here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

MNF Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:15 ET - The Texans are 8-1 to the over in home games against a divisional opponent in which the posted total is less than 43 points. The fact is that this total is too low especially considering that Titans QB Marcus Mariota is now expected to play. Tennessee has gone 11-2 to the over when they are playing the 2nd of back to back road games. Last week they were at Indianapolis (and gave up 38 points by the way) so the system is in play this week! The Titans had a poor game on offense against the Colts but Mariota got hurt in the first half and that was a factor. The two prior games Tennessee had averaged 31 points per game. As for Houston, they enter this game on a 7-0 game winning streak and their offense has its stride. The Texans have averaged 28 points per game their last 3 games. The over is 11-5 in the meetings between these teams in Houston. 10* OVER the total in Houston 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - Both the Packers and Vikings are off losses last week and, as a result, with the Bears win over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, Chicago is running away with the NFC North Division. That means this game features a match-up of two teams desperately trying to stay alive in the playoff picture. Even though the first game between these teams this season finished in a tie, this truly is a revenge game for the Packers. Green Bay, at home, had a 13-point lead entering the 4th quarter of that match-up. Also, the Packers gave up a touchdown AND the 2-point conversion with less than a minute to go in the game. Suffice to say, Aaron Rodgers and Company have had this game circled in red ever since! Keep in mind the Vikings were also helped in that 4th quarter comeback by a controversial roughing the passer penalty. I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay is 0-5 SU on the road this season. As long-time followers know I tend to be a contrarian and this is particularly true in the NFL. Ask yourself this: how can the Vikings be favored by only about a FG here when they are 9-2 SU their last 11 at home and Packers are 0-5 SU their last 5 on the road? Exactly! When things look too easy they truly never are and I expect Green Bay to finally get that first road win Sunday night in a crucial game. I will grab the points, currently available at +3.5, as added "insurance" though should the Packers fall just short. GB is off a Thursday game so they do have extra rest and the Packers are 5-0 ATS when off a Thursday game. The Packers match-up very well with the Vikings and their biggest weakness (run defense) is one the Vikings (#31 out of 32 for rush offense) are unlikely to be able to take advantage of. That said, I'll take Rodgers over Kirk Cousins as the Vikings QB is 4-12 in primetime games in his career! 10* GREEN BAY PACKERS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have won 4 straight games for the first time in 4 years. The Dolphins enter off their bye week. Miami has been struggling but has the rest edge here and will avenge a 2015 home loss to Indianapolis. The Dolphins out-gained the Colts by nearly 100 yards in that game but lost by 6 points. Miami is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they've faced the Colts at Indianapolis! The Colts entered this season having gone 1-10 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage over .400 that is off a SU/ATS loss. That system fits here as the Dolphins were crushed by the Packers before their bye week. Also, Indianapolis is in a divisional sandwich here as they faced the Titans last week and have Jacksonville on deck. The Colts are 2-7 ATS when they have a game with the Jaguars on deck. Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS when off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Also, the Colts are 1-6 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin against an AFC opponent. A lot of technical data to like here and this one sets up perfectly from a situational standpoint as well. Grab the generous points. 8* MIAMI

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #269 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - Perfect weather in Denver this afternoon. Light winds, no precipitation and temperatures in the forties. You really can't ask for much better in the Rocky Mountains in late November. That said, the offenses should thrive in this match-up. I like the fact that both teams are off of last second wins last week as well. That means plenty of confidence for each offense here and a possible letdown from each defense after the Steelers took advantage of facing a slumping Jaguars offense while the Broncos did allow 479 yards to the Chargers last week and were fortunate to win. Pittsburgh, dating back to last season and including post-season action, is on an 8-4 run to the over their last dozen games. The over is 6-2 the last 8 times the Broncos and Steelers have met. Denver is in the lower third of the NFL for defense but actually in the top third of the league for offense. The point is that the fact that Broncos have trended under this season is a bit of a statistical anomaly and we can take advantage here as it has resulted in a posted total that is lower than it should be in this one. Pittsburgh has one of the top passing attacks in the league and Rivers and company threw for nearly 400 yards in the Chargers loss to the Broncos last week and I expect Roethlisberger and company to have similar production in this one. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - This line has gone from the Bengals being a 3-point choice to now being a pick'em in this game as of early Sunday morning. I love the value we're getting here with a Bengals team that has former Browns head coach Hue Jackson serving as an assistant to Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis. Jackson joined the staff of Lewis two weeks ago after being fired by the Browns. Of course Jackson knows the Browns very well and, of course, there is plenty of motivation here. Cleveland is on an ugly 6-15 ATS run in divisional games. The Bengals are on a 7-0 SU (and ATS!) run in their last 7 games with the Browns! They've crushed them by an average margin of 21 points per game. More of the same expected here. 8* CINCINNATI

The CFB Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah State (+) over Boise State @ 10:15 ET - Utah State's ground game is producing 217 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry.  Boise State's rushing attack is producing 159 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry.  The Aggies also have an edge in terms of pass defense on the season. Utah State is allowing only 52.3% pass completions and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  Boise State is allowing 63% pass completions and 8.2 yards per pass attempt.  The winner of this game goes to the Mountain West title game (will face Fresno State) and Boise State is a popular choice here due to their very successful home record over many seasons.  This home factoring for the Broncos is of course already playing a big role in the line because the Aggies are such a strong team and yet are getting points here due to Boise State's high success rate in home games.. The result here is line value with Utah State.  The Aggies are seeking revenge for a blowout loss at home versus Boise State last season.  Utah State was out-gained by only 26 yards in the prior year's meeting (at Boise State) and the year before that the Aggies blew out the Broncos 52-26.  The point is that Utah State (last year notwithstanding) was starting to turn the corner in this series (under head coach Matt Wells) and I expect that to continue here on Saturday night.  Also, the Broncos are off a big win at New Mexico and they are on an 0-5 ATS run when off a game against the Lobos.  Of course that 5-0 ATS play against situation is in play here as Boise State is off a trip to New Mexico.  The Aggies do enter this game on a 10-game winning streak SU.  Also, the Broncos are 4-8 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.  I expect an upset win here and won't be surprised when the Aggies win this game in a road rout. 10* Utah State

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #226 Saturday 8* USC Trojans (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 8 ET - Huge line move toward Notre Dame here has opened up solid underdog value with home dog USC. The home team is actually on a 5-0 run (both SU and ATS) in this series. After what happened last season at South Bend (worst loss ever for Trojans in this storied long-time rivalry), I look for Southern Cal to give the Irish all they can handle here. Yes, it has been a down season for the Trojans this season and they need to get the upset win here to become bowl eligible. However, USC would be highly motivated here even if that wasn't the case. I know Notre Dame has had a fine season of course but the Trojans (despite their 5-6 record) are still a very talented football team that has played a schedule with a strength level just as strong as the one the Fighting Irish have faced. Also, Notre Dame is on a 3-6 ATS run in games played on grass and 3-8 ATS run in November games. Southern Cal is on an 8-2 SU run (and 7-3 ATS) in November games. The Trojans are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've hosted ND. Also, the Fighting Irish are on an 0-5 ATS run when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are on the road and facing a team playing with revenge. That systems fits perfectly here and I love the big home dog in a game that will be much more competitive than many are expecting. 8* SOUTHERN CAL

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #218 Saturday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 3:30 ET - This line opened up with SMU barely favored. As expected the Mustangs have moved up to being a 3 point choice as of early game-day morning. Of course everyone jumped on the opportunity to fade a 2-9 Tulsa team. The Golden Hurricane, though only playing for pride, are looking to make the most of senior day and would love to spoil the Mustangs hopes of becoming bowl eligible. Though SMU certainly has some motivation to get the 6th win, don't underestimate the fact that they also have to be deflated after last week. Why? Well the Mustangs entered last week still having a shot at getting to the AAC title game. But SMU lost 28-18 at Memphis and was outgained 208 to 25 on the ground! Now the Mustangs go from playing for a shot to reach the AAC championship game to just playing to make a bowl. Certainly that is still motivation but how much will SMU have left in the tank? I feel it won't be enough to get by a Tulsa team looking to close out the season with a big home win and whom would love to end SMU's bowl hopes. The Golden Hurricane are allowing just 24.8 points per game in home games this season. The Mustangs are allowing 42.4 points per game in road games this year! SMU is a long-term 16-29 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Look for the Mustangs to drop to 4-8 (both ATS and SU) in games played in November. 8* TULSA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - The first reaction here is to look at this game the line as "off" because the Wolverines are laying more than a field goal at Ohio State. Of course the reality is that Michigan is the much better team this season and this line is absolutely justified. In fact, this is a game that the Wolverines should win by a double digit margin and that is the reason this one easily earned a spot on my Saturday card. Michigan is allowing just 13.5 points and 234.8 yards per game on the season. The Buckeyes are allowing 24.6 points and 398.6 yards per games on the year. Ohio State did have a strong recent performance at Michigan State and defeated the Spartans by a final score of 26-6. However, in their other 3 games since mid-October, the Buckeyes have allowed 43.7 points per game and 508 yards per game. The opponents for those games were Maryland, Nebraska, and Purdue. NONE of those three teams have managed a winning record this season. Now the Buckeyes host a Michigan team that has won 10 straight games since their season opening loss to Notre Dame. Also, in that season-opening loss the Wolverines did outgain the Fighting Irish. Of course ND is now 11-0 on the season entering today's action. In other words, Michigan has impressed all season long. The Wolverines have gone 10-0 SU their last 10 and allowed just 12.5 points per game. during the win streak. Michigan has scored at least 31 points in 8 of those 10 games. The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is mired in a 1-6 ATS skid. 8* Michigan

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #134 Friday 10* Top Play South Florida Bulls (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 4:15 ET - South Florida started the season 7-0 but has now lost 4 straight games. Certainly the Bulls were over-rated earlier this season. However, they are now at home catching 14.5 points (as of early Friday morning) in this rivalry game with Central Florida and they are catching the Knights at the perfect time. That is because UCF is off a huge win over Cincinnati last week. That game was expected to be a war (Knights at home and favored by just 7) and yet Central Florida won easily. It is off that type of game (with so much anticipation leading into it) that a team can end up struggling in the very next game. I do expect UCF to get the win here but by just a single score! South Florida is 8-2 (80%) ATS when they are facing a team with a winning record that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. Of course that system fits here for the Bulls and that was truly a massive victory for UCF last week. Long-term USF is on an 8-4 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bulls are 3-0 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points and 2 of the 3 wins were outright upsets! Don't be surprised if USF gives Central Florida all they can handle in this one and it goes down to the wire. 10* SOUTH FLORIDA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #109 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are stream-rolling everyone right now so, of course, they're a popular choice in this match-up. However, their line is truly over-inflated and New Orleans is facing a division rival that, before a tight loss earlier this season, had beaten them in 3 of the last 4 games. Also, 2 of the Falcons last 4 visits to New Orleans have resulted in outright wins. I am not necessarily expecting an upset here but I am expecting the Falcons to stay well within this large number. How many times has Atlanta lost by more than 10 points to the Saints in the past 13 meetings? ZERO! Also, the Falcons are on an 11-3 ATS run in Thursday games. The Saints, under coach Sean Payton, are an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off a SU win by double digits, and facing an opponent off back to back SU losses! Also, under coach Payton, New Orleans is a poor 2-13 ATS as a favorite off a non-divisional game and facing a divisional opponent whom is playing with revenge. These are strong systems that each favor the big road dog Falcons here. The Saints are also 5-13 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. Statistically these teams match up much more closely than their won-loss records would lead you to believe. Look for this one to be tight all the way which means HUGE value with the BIG points. 10* ATLANTA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #113 Thursday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - As a general rule, it is a good idea to at least take a look at the underdog in rivalry games. That's because rivalry games have a bit of an "anything can happen" theme and also because they tend to play out "tighter" than many other games with less blowouts. However, just as with anything "typical" there are exceptions and this is one of them. Last year the Rebels upset the Bulldogs at Mississippi State and this is a legitimate revenge situation and the situation is absolutely perfect to back the revenging team. Why? Because the Bulldogs are so much better than the Rebels this season! Ole Miss is on an 0-4 SU run. Also, the Rebels have gone 0-7 ATS in SEC games this season! Mississippi is allowing nearly 500 yards per game this season! Conversely, Mississippi State's fantastic defense has allowed just 12.8 points per game and only 275.6 yards per game. The Bulldogs defense gave up just 24 points when they faced Alabama while the Rebels defense game up 62 points when they faced the Crimson Tide! Mississippi State has allowed 13 points or less in 8 of 11 games this season. Ole Miss has allowed at least 31 points in 5 straight games! The Rebels are allowing 36.3 points this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS as a favorite this season while Mississippi is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this season. After losing QB Fitzgerald to injury in last season's game against the Rebels and eventually losing the game too (by 3 as a double digit favorite) it is payback time in 2018's meeting! 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins @ 4:30 ET - Washington QB Colt McCoy hasn't shown the ability at the NFL level to really stretch the defense downfield with long passes. However, he has been in Redskins head coach Jay Gruden's system during Gruden's entire time with Washington and "dink and dunk" passes and quick short strikes and screen plays actually could give the aggressive defense of the Cowboys some issues here. Dallas likes to use their defensive line to create havoc but McCoy also is a mobile QB and I strongly believe that the Redskins offense is going to have success today. The problem for Washington today is going to be that they'll struggle to stop a Dallas offense that is hitting their stride and playing with confidence. Hence, the play on the over in this one. The Cowboys have won 3 of their last 5 games and have averaged 30 points per game in those 3 wins. Also, the earlier match-up this season stayed under the total but had a last-second field goal been made, the game would have gone over the total. That is noteworthy because this series was on a 5-0 run to the over heading into that one and I expect the high-scoring ways to resume here. The Redskins defense has allowed 338 passing yards per game their last 3 road games. Washington is 8-4 to the over in Thursday games. The Redskins are also 8-2 to the over in games played in weeks 10 through 13 of a season. The Cowboys are 3-1 to the over in home games this season and a long-term 7-3 to the over when they are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Air Force Falcons vs Colorado State Rams @ 3:30 ET - Most will look at this total and feel it is too high but the set up here is actually perfect for an over. The weather is going to be ideal with high temperatures near 60 degrees and rather light winds and no precipitation. Of course late November games played in in the Rocky Mountain state certainly can have bad weather and snow and wind and cold but none of those elements are in play for this one. Additionally, there is no pressure for either team in this game. Both teams are NOT eligible for a bowl game no matter what happens in this game. That said, playing loose and relaxed, both teams simply go "all out" here and certainly won't be unwilling to take risk with plays looking for big gains. The Rams are known for struggling with the Falcons ground attack and Air Force is known for struggling to stop the Colorado State passing attack. With that said, look for plenty of points in this one. The Rams are 6-2 to the over their last 8 games versus teams with a losing record. Air Force is 8-1 to the over their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the over is a perfect 7-0 when the Falcons are a home favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* OVER the total in Air Force

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky is likely going to be out for this game. We've seen a drop in the total leading up to this game because of that fact. However, though back-up QB Chase Daniel doesn't have many starts in his NFL career, he has been around the league for quite a few seasons now. When he played in Week 3 of the preseason this year (keep in mind that is the week when the starters play the most) Daniel actually performed quite well. Also, he does have good running ability which poses another threat against the Lions defense. This is the first of back to back road games for the Bears and that is a situation in which Chicago is on a 12-2 run to the over! In November games, the Bears are on a long-term 7-2 run to the over. Detroit is on a run of 4-2 to the over in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Lions have averaged 22.3 points per game in their last 4 games versus the Bears. Chicago's pass defense has allowed 273.5 passing yards per game in their last 2 road games. The Lions pass defense has allowed 339.5 passing yards per game in their last two games. You know Lions QB Matthew Stafford will be fired up about this Thanksgiving match-up and I expect Bears QB Daniel to perform much better than many are expecting. The result should be plenty of points so take advantage of the low total posted on this game. 8* OVER the total in Detroit

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - The Broncos have a number of situational edges here. The Huskies already have clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game so they really have nothing to play for there. The Broncos, though they do have 6 wins to have already clinched bowl eligibility, would certainly like to improve their bowl possibilities. Also, it is Western Michigan that is playing with revenge here as they lost last year's game by 4 points at Northern Illinois. Though the Broncos have lost 3 straight games they didn't play as bad in the two ugly losses as what the final scores from those games show. Additionally, in last week's 1 point loss to Ball State, Western Michigan actually outgained the Cardinals by about 200 yards. Also, the Huskies are averaging just 308 yards per game on the road this season and it will be tough for them to get much of a margin in this game (if they even do prevail) as, other than a big win at Akron, Northern Illinois has averaged just 16.6 points per game in their other 5 road games. The home team in this series has won 4 of the last 5 games SU in this series and the Broncos are catching about 6 points in this one. The Huskies are on a 3-7 ATS run as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. This is an "ugly home dog" play but this is the kind of late season situation that gets the cash more often than not. I expect an upset with the Broncos but will grab the extra insurance with the generous points being offered. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I know this total seems "nuts" but the fact is both teams play fast, both teams have great offenses, both teams have very suspect defenses, and the weather in Los Angeles is going to be perfect for this game. Add up all these factors and I just don't see very many defensive stops at all. Both teams will move the ball extremely well and we should see plenty of touchdowns in this one. The over is 5-0 (including 3-0 this season) when the Chiefs are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Overall, the over is 8-2 the last 10 times Kansas City has been an underdog. The Rams are 7-2 to the over when off a win over a division rival. Also, Los Angeles is 29-15 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points (including 4-1 to the over in recent seasons). The Rams are 22-6 to the over when they are a non-divisional favorite of more than 3 points! The Chiefs are allowing 30.4 points per game on the road this season. The Rams have allowed 34.3 points per game their last 3 games. These two teams each average at least 33.5 points per game on offense too. In other words, this is simply a shootout in the making. Adding to the value is the fact that each team has a bye week on deck. What that means is that each of these defenses has had week after week of action and is pretty worn down at this point in the year. Yes this total is big but it is fully justified. I am expecting this one gets well into the seventies! 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Huge game in the NFC North and a rare situation in that the Vikings are having to look UP in the standings at the Bears! Minnesota has won 3 straight games against Chicago and the Vikings are also off their bye week. They will be "more than ready" in this opportunity to leapfrog the Bears for the top spot in the division. Even though Chicago has won 3 straight games, those victories all came against teams that not only have losing records on the season but actually each have only 3 wins on the season! The Vikings have played a tougher schedule than the Bears this season and yet have managed to hang "right there" with Chicago in the standings. Keep in mind the Vikings got an ATS win (or at worst "push") at the LA Rams earlier this season, they also beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in an outright upset AT Philly, and they also outgained the Saints by over 150 yards in their loss to New Orleans! Those are some strong performances against respectable teams and I feel we're getting great value here against a Bears team that, though improved, still has to show they can rise up in a huge game like this. Keep in mind that Chicago hasn't played a playoff game since 2010. The Vikings have played in 3 playoff games in the past 3 seasons under head coach Mike Zimmer. The reason I mention this is because this game is going to be played at a "playoff-level intensity" and the battle-tested Vikings have an edge in this type of game in my opinion. Note that head coach Zimmer has produced a 13-1 ATS record his last 14 in games against teams that are off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, Zimmer is 16-5 ATS when off a divisional game. The Bears are on a 5-16 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B home games. Last, but certainly not least, here is an interesting "kicker" to wrap this one up. Chicago is 0-12 ATS in divisional games when they are off a double digit SU win in which they also scored more than 28 points. Beautiful set-up here. 10* MINNESOTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #459 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are on a tremendous roll and looking like the best team in the NFL. The Eagles have played this season as just a shadow of the team that, in February, staked their claim as the best team in the NFL. Now Philadelphia gets a chance to knock their replacement, New Orleans, off their pedestal. I know this is a contrarian play but it is the type of situation that has cashed for me so many times in the past, it is the reason it is worthy of big investment for me in this situation Sunday. The Saints have won 8 straight games SU and they've won 7 straight games ATS. Conversely, the Eagles have lost 4 of their last 6 games SU. Also, Philadelphia is on an ugly 2-6 ATS skid since winning and covering their opening game this season. Why then the play on the Eagles? There is still plenty of talent on this team. Ever since the ugly road loss at Tampa Bay they've played better away from Philly this season than they have at home. They lost in OT at Tennessee but crushed the Giants in New York and beat the Jaguars in London. Granted not great teams but they've not lost a road game by more than 6 points all season. Even that ugly loss to TB was decided by just 6 points. In fact, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants is the only game they've been involved in this season that was decided by more than 7 points. The point is that these are still the defending super bowl champs and they are not an easy team to blowout no matter who you are. They are a strong team in the trenches on both sides of the ball and offensive lineman Lane Johnson has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Eagles are a much better team (proven by long-term records) when Johnson is out there. This is a key to success on offense, and keep in mind, the Saints defense ranks 27th based on points allowed this season. Yes New Orleans has a fantastic offense but the Eagles defense ranks 5th based on points allowed this season. Philadelphia has a dangerous pass rush and also does a great job of stopping the run. The Saints defense is one of the worst in the league for qb sacks. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite in non-divisional action and they have a big divisional game with Falcons on deck. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philly is 5-1 ATS when off a SU loss and facing an opponent that is off a SU win by double digits. That system fits perfectly here as the Saints blasted the Bengals last week. Also, one final "kicker" here that is also in play. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS when off a SU win by double digits and facing a non-divisional opponent that has a looking record on the season! Don't be surprised if the Eagles pull off the shocker here and win this game outright to improve on the ugly 4-5 season record they have. At the very least, they should get the cover and stay inside this inflated number! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #454 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Good line value here because, as stated before, the betting markets have a short term memory. As a result, in a case like this, because the Cowboys are off the upset win of the Eagles and the Falcons are off an upset loss to the Browns, this line is being kept lower than it should be. The fact is that Atlanta had turned the corner before losing at Cleveland as they had won 3 straight. Also, Dallas had lost all 4 road games prior to that upset win. Now, in large part because of last week's results, we're able to get the Falcons laying just a field goal at home against the Cowboys. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Atlanta is 7-0 ATS when facing a team that has a losing record on the season and is off a SU divisional win. Of course that system fits perfectly here with the 4-5 Cowboys off the big upset at Philly. The Falcons have dominated Dallas in recent meetings and, in fact, the Cowboys are a poor 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC South opponents. That means this play is supported by combined edges on a 17-1 / 94% ATS run. 8* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - This line was up around a TD and has dropped to a 5 as of early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and laying the points with the road favorite here. Many are surprised to see a team that came inches from the super bowl last season getting so many points on their home field. However, the Jaguars have faded big time this season and can't be trusted while the Steelers offense is rolling and should be able to pile up plenty of points here. Pittsburgh has averaged 35.4 points their last 5 games. Jacksonville has allowed 28.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Steelers have won and covered 5 straight games while the Jaguars have lost 5 straight games SU and also have not gotten a single ATS win during this streak. There are two other keys here besides the current level of play of these team teams. The Steelers have a rest edge here since they had the Thursday game last week and also, the big one is that Pittsburgh has revenge from January's playoff loss (at home!) to the Jaguars. It is payback time here. I know Jacksonville has good ATS history versus the Steelers, particularly when at home, but this Jags team is a mess right now. Also, as home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Jacksonville is a long-term 9-20 ATS! I also like the fact that the Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. That SU dominance is noteworthy here as the team that has been the SU winner in every single Jaguars game and every single Pittsburgh game this season has been the ATS winner. Look for that trend to remain perfect here as the Steelers win and get the road cover in doing so. 8* PITTSBURGH

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #417 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - This is the classic situation where I like backing the underdog. The higher ranked team is at home and is laying (in many spots) less than a field goal. Also, the team that is ranked higher is also off a big road win. This is the type of situation where many are enticed to simply lay the small number with the home team when the reality is there is good reason the line is so low. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this game and I expect that to favor Iowa State. The Cyclones come into this game extremely confident with wins in 5 straight games and averaging 35 points per game during this winning streak. It is no coincidence that this 5-game run has come with Brock Purdy at QB. The Iowa State quarterback has been red hot and I look for him to take advantage of a struggling UT defense today. The Longhorns are banged up in the secondary and, since their bye week on October 20th, the Horns have had to play 3 straight tough offenses. This wears a defense down as Texas has tried to stop Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech the past 3 weeks. The Longhorns, though the beat the Red Raiders last week, certainly have struggled to get stops! Texas has allowed 38 points per game their last 3 games and over 500 yards of offense in 4 of their last 5 games including each of these last 3. The Horns are beat up and road-weary as this will be just their 3rd home game since blasting TCU nearly two months ago! Iowa State has lost both match-ups with Texas since Matt Campbell took over as head coach. This game today has "payback" written all over it as the Cyclones are surging! The Longhorns, though they won in this role last week, are still an ugly 2-11 ATS when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are now facing a team playing with revenge. Like I said, UT got the job done in that role last week but this is rare for them and, this week, Iowa State gets their revenge! The Cyclones are on a 13-3 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record under coach Campbell and they get the job done again here. 10* IOWA STATE

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #403 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers @ 4:30 ET - Beautiful weather in Seattle, WA for this game and the Huskies should have no problem rolling right through the Beavers defense. The thing that I feel will surprise many in this one is that Oregon State should also score well against the Washington defense. The Huskies are in a tricky scheduling spot. Even though Washington is off a bye week they have a huge rivalry game on deck with Washington State. It is nearly impossible for the Huskies to avoid looking ahead to the Cougars, especially if they get a sizable lead in this game which they certainly should as evidenced by the point spread of nearly 5 TDs! Washington, even if distracted, will have no trouble scoring on the Beavers as they're allowing 45 points per game this season. However, what is intriguing here is that Oregon State has averaged 440 yards per game this season on the road! Also the Beavers had scored an average of 33.3 points per game in their 3 road games prior to being held to 17 points at Stanford last week. The over is a perfect 5-0 in Oregon State's road games this season. Long-term the Beavers are 10-2 to the over in road games where they are an underdog of 21.5 points or more! Washington State is 3-1 to the over when off a bye week and the Huskies are 4-2 to the over when they are a favorite of 31 points or more. The over is 11-6 in match-ups between these teams and the Huskies have averaged scoring 48 points per game in the last 5 meetings. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington 

Contrarian Crusher Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #400 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - When the lines first game out this one had to be a head-scratcher in most peoples books. Boston College is a ranked team and their loss to Clemson snapped a stretch that had seen the Eagles win 3 straight games SU and 4 in a row ATS. As for the Seminoles they've lost 3 straight games by a combined score of 148 to 51. That is an average losing margin of 32.3 points per game and yet this line opened up at nearly a pick'em! If there ever was a perfect play to fit into my contrarian system. This is it! Florida State is the type of team that is ultra-talented but yet has moments where they frustrate the hell out of their backers. The fact is that this line was set this way for a reason and I am grabbing the Noles as they catch the Eagles flat after that huge night game at home last week versus Clemson and with FSU having played better statistically than what the recent final scores would indicate. Long-term, in games with a line between +3 and -3, the Seminoles are on a 23-10 ATS run. Look for the Eagles to drop to 4-8 SU in their last dozen games played on grass. 8* FLORIDA STATE

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach CFB Game #389 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma State Cowboys vs West Virginia @ 3:30 ET - This is a contrarian totals play as the bigger total the more likely it is to draw attention from "under" players. In this case I just don't see either team getting enough stops to keep this game under the total. Both teams have very potent offenses and the weather is going to be perfect in Stillwater, OK today with temperatures likely in the low 60s at kickoff and no precipitation. The wind could be picking up a little as the game goes on but nothing too significant. As for these two offenses, the Mountaineers have one of the most efficient offense in the nation as they are averaging 7.3 yards per play. The Cowboys have one of the fastest offenses in the nation (in terms of pace of play) as they are averaging 77 plays per game. West Virginia has been red hot and has averaged scoring 49 points per game its last 3 games. Oklahoma State's last 6 games featured one bad game, a dud at Kansas State. In the other 5 games the Cowboys averaged scoring 41.2 points per game. Last year's game had "only" 33 points at the half but ended up with 89 points. The Mountaineers are 5-2 to the over in games played on turf this season. Oklahoma State is a long-term 17-4 to the over in home games with a posted total of 70 points or more. The takeaway is that, though this total may seem big, it should prove to be not nearly enough. The over is on a 7-2 run in OSU November games and a 14-4 run in Cowboys home games. Those trends continue here. 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma State

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #364 Saturday 8* Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Utah Utes @ 1:30 ET - This is a tough spot for the Utes. Utah is off a big win versus Oregon and has another big home game with BYU on deck. The Buffaloes have a couple advantages here. Not only do they catch the Utes in a tricky scheduling spot, they are also at home and it is likely to be snowing during this game. Poor weather conditions generally tend to help the underdog and I like the fact we can get the Buffaloes at more than a TD in some spots as of early gameday morning. Colorado is 5-2 ATS in this series. Also, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. When the Utes are off a SU win which they also covered ATS, and are facing a team off B2B SU losses, Utah has gone 1-6 ATS. Combined edges of 16-4 / 80% ATS here are in favor of the Buffaloes and I believe Mother Nature favors the home team in this one too as a sizable home dog. Look for the Buffaloes to get the job done in their home finale. 8* COLORADO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #315 Friday 8* OVER the total in SMU Mustangs vs Memphis Tigers @ 9 ET - On the surface, this total looks too big. However, in last year's meeting between these teams they combined for 111 points. In the Tigers last game at SMU they scored 51 points. The Mustangs enter this game having scored an average of 53.5 points per game their last two games but they allowed 50 points at Connecticut last week. SMU now hosts a Memphis offense that is one of the most efficient in the nation. The Tigers are averaging 7.54 yards per play on offense. How good is that? It ranks them 3rd in the nation behind only Oklahoma and Alabama. Good company! The point is that Memphis should roll right through a struggling Mustangs defense. However, note that the Tigers are allowing over 500 yards per game in road games this season and SMU's offense has hit its stride in recent weeks. Considering that as well as the fact that the weather will be absolutely perfect for this game, and you have the ideal set up for an absolute shootout in this one! I know the total looks imposing here but Memphis is 4-1 to the over in recent seasons in road games with a posted total of 70 points or more. Also, when the Tigers enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games, they have a long-term record of 28-11 to the over. The Mustangs are on a 7-3 run to the over in November games and another one is absolutely in the forecast here. 8* OVER the total in SMU 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Seattle has home field edge here but, really, what else do they have? That is my point in looking at the Seahawks this season. Yes, they burned me last week as they stayed inside the big number at LA against the Rams. However, Seattle is still one of the worst teams in the league in terms of sack percentage allowed while Green Bay ranks roughly in the middle. Also, the Seahawks sack percentage on defense is strong but the Packers are even stronger. I will also take Aaron Rodgers over Russell Wilson any day of the week as my QB. I respect Wilson but the point is Seattle plays in a very weak NFC West because it only has the Rams as the Cardinals and 49ers struggles continue. Conversely, the Packers are annually dealing with the Vikings and now the Bears have risen up from the depths of mediocrity. Statistically, in terms of yardage allowed, these two defenses are very similar. Offense is where the edge goes to the Packers are they are averaging nearly 100 yards more through the air than the Seahawks are this season. I realize Seattle put up some big numbers last week on offense but they did take advantage of catching the Rams off that tough game with the Saints (LA still nearly covered anyway). The Seahawks last 3 wins have come against 3 teams that have a combined record of 6-18 SU on the season. I know the Packers haven't been world-beaters either but I like the fact they were absolutely "in the game" in their losses to the Rams and Patriots and their loss to Detroit was despite the Packers outgaining the Lions by 257 yards! I know they are NOT (and it is in black and white what matters most) but Green Bay could easily be 6-0 their last 6 games. With Rodgers at the helm they are always a threat and the Packers, ever since the lost to the Seahawks twice in 2014 (reg ssn and P/O) have dominated Seattle since. GB is 3-0 with the 3 victories over Seattle coming by a combined score of 82-36. The Packers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 played in weeks 10 through 13. This is their time of year for their annual playoff push! The last 26 times Seattle has been a favorite they have covered just 10 times! 10* GREEN BAY

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #310 Thursday 8* UNDER the total in Kent State Golden Flashes vs Toledo Rockets @ 6 ET - Nasty weather at Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio is projected for this game. Temperatures right around freezing with a mixture of freezing rain and snow expected throughout the day today and into the evening. Both teams are coming off games where they gave up a ton of points so you know each teams' defense will be ready to go here as they look to atone for poor performances last week. As a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, Toledo's games have gone under the total in 8 of their last 10. Rockets games played in weeks 10 through 13 of a season also have gone under the total in 8 of their last 10. In Golden Flashes Thursday games (rare) all 6 of them with a total posted have stayed under the total - perfect 6 for 6! Also when off a loss in conference action this season, Kent State has gone under ALL 4 times! The Golden Flashes had allowed 27.5 points per game in their 4 games prior to last week's ugly loss. The Rockets had allowed an average of just 18.5 points per game in their 2 games prior to last week's ugly loss. Look for both defense to respond here and look for plenty of help from mother nature in this one. 8* UNDER the total in Kent State

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - This line has gone from a pick'em to Ohio becoming nearly a field goal favorite in this one. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move here and, as always, it is certainly not without reason! This Buffalo team is on a mission. Bulls head coach Lance Leipold is in his 4th year at Buffalo and the Bulls have yet to reach the post-season. Keep in mind this is the same Leipold who won FIVE Division III national championships at Wisconsin-Whitewater. That said, it is no surprise to me that Buffalo is having their best season yet under Leipold. That fact is that even if the Bulls lose this game they can still clinch the MAC East even if Ohio wins again next week. Buffalo could do that by virtue of defeating a bad Bowling Green team next week. However, the Bulls don't want to go that route. They want to clinch this right here right now on the Bobcats own field. Keep in mind Buffalo, under Leipold, has won both home match-ups with the Bobcats but they lost the lone meeting at Ohio University by 24 points in 2016. They must have been dominated, right? Actually the Bulls outgained Ohio in that game but were done in by turnovers. Buffalo atones for that road loss with a road win here. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in MAC games this season and 4-0 ATS in road games on the year. They are also the healthier team entering this match-up. Buffalo also has an extra day of rest compared to Ohio heading into this one. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS when off a game against Kent State. Also, though some would argue these teams schedules are roughly equal this season in terms of strength, the numbers tell a different story. For the 2nd straight year the Bobcats schedule included just 2 teams that had a winning record last season. As for the Bulls, their schedule included 5 teams that had a winning record last season. I like having the points here as the Bulls "mission" under Leipold continues! 10* BUFFALO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 6 ET - Both teams have been struggling but the Broncos are still the superior team and will respond after getting blown out in back to back games. In fact, Western Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they've entered a weekday game off B2B SU losses. The Broncos are also a fantastic 10-2 ATS as road favorites of more than 6 points when facing a team with a losing record! Ball State is an ugly 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Western Michigan. In fact the Broncos have blown out the Cardinals by a combined score of 161-30 in the last 3 meetings! I am well aware that EACH of these teams has issues at the QB position but at least Broncos QB Kaleb Eleby had a solid effort when he first replaced the injured Jon Wassink 2 games back. As for Ball State QB Drew Plitt, he has come in place of the injured Riley Neal but turnovers were a major issue in his first game. Another key factor here is that, with the QB situation for each team, the running game carries extra importance. The Broncos run defense had been solid for many consecutive weeks prior to the last two weeks. Though Western Michigan's run D struggled in its past two games they certainly didn't struggle as much as the Cardinals did. Ball State allowed an average of 307.5 rushing yards per game the past two games! Also, in terms of rushing yardage on offense, the Broncos have averaged 251 yards per game on the ground in their last 4 road contests! The Cards have gained more than 160 on the ground just once in their last seven games. Ball State is on a long-term 6-16 ATS run in conference games and with this line dropping to a 7 as of Tuesday evening, it is "go time" with the Broncos! 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - Both teams come in with extra rest as the Niners last game was a Thursday game when they demolished the Raiders as QB Nick Mullens had a huge debut. As for the Giants, they are coming off their bye week and now QB Eli Manning will be going for his 3rd straight game with at least 300 passing yards. I expect him to get it and for that to be a difference maker here. Last week's game for San Francisco saw them face an Oakland team that has been dysfunctional. That is why the Raiders managed a meager 3 points in that contest. The Giants, though they have issues, still have guys like Odell Beckham Jr that love the Monday night spotlight and can make big plays and the fact is the 49ers defense is nothing special. In fact, San Francisco's last two games were against the bumbling Raiders and the near-death offense of the Cardinals! That is why the 49ers recent numbers on defense look good. Prior to this, San Francisco allowed an average of 31 points per game in the first 7 games this season! As for the Giants defense, they've allowed at least 20 points in all 8 of their games this season. Also, prior to holding the Redskins to 20 points in their final game before the bye week, New York had allowed an average of 31 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Giants over is 2-0 this season in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points and also 2-0 the past two seasons when off their bye week. The 49ers last 3 games have remained under the total but, prior to this, the over was 7-1 in their 8 previous games! That type of trending resumes tonight. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Philadelphia is always fired up when the Eagles host the Cowboys. However, last season's match-up in Philly was a RARE exception! It was the final regular season game and meant nothing to the Eagles as their playoff position was clinched and they were more concerned with marching toward the super bowl than facing the Cowboys. Not surprisingly the game ended up an ugly 6-0 Dallas win. This game will play out much differently as it has plenty of meaning and, of course, the Eagles are ready for payback after Dallas handed them their only home loss last season. Though I do expect Philadelphia to win this game, they are a very pricey favorite and I feel the best value will prove to be with the total. The Eagles averaged 29 points per game in their last 3 meetings with Dallas that actually were meaningful games. As for the Cowboys, they only scored 14 points last week but they moved the ball a little better than that point total would indicate. Remember that Dallas had previously averaged 25 points per game in their 4 prior games. I know a lot of trends and angles are pointing to the under here but I don't see the Cowboys D stopping a very determined (and talented) Eagles offense that has even more weapons now thanks to acquisitions and improved health. At the same time the Cowboys should enjoy success against an Eagles D that has collapsed at times in recent home games (losses to Carolina and Minnesota). Look for plenty of points here as the trends pointing to under just don't matter here based on the situational aspects of this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Surprisingly the early indication on this one, prior to gameday, is that the Seahawks are the popular choice. Of course it makes sense as many remember that Seattle lost by just two points in the prior meeting this season plus many are feeling the Rams will suffer "unbeaten letdown" after their undefeated start to the season ended last week in New Orleans. Ladies and gentlemen, that game against the Saints was a hard-fought battle and Los Angeles has nothing to hang their heads about in regards to that defeat. In other words, look for the Rams to come out blazing hot here looking to atone for that defeat and there is no way the Seahawks can match them score for score. That is why I am very willing to lay a sizable number here as this game has rout written all over it. Some are even mentioning that the Rams have the trip to Mexico City on deck against the Chiefs, one of the AFC's best. The fact is that a non-conference match-up, no matter where it is played, does not take precedence over a divisional match-up! Also, this is especially true this time around because the Seahawks beat the Rams in their last visit to LA! The Seahawks are on a 3-8 ATS run in games played on grass. The Rams are 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in games played on grass this season. Los Angeles has the much stronger passing attack in this match-up and, off a loss, they won't take their foot off the gas in this match-up. The Seahawks are averaging just 23 points per game this season. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in 7 of their 9 games. I like my odds for a double digit cover in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - This is a contrarian play because the betting markets have a short-term memory. In their minds the best bet here is to fade the Titans with the almighty Patriots because, well, New England tends to be a covering machine PLUS the key factor that Tennessee is on a short week. However, that Monday Night win over the Cowboys gives a huge confidence boost for the Titans heading into this match-up with the Patriots. I love the fact that Tennessee also gets this game at home, the Pats Rob Gronkowski may not play, and the Titans have playoff revenge from that ugly loss at Foxboro in January. While it is true that New England has the better offense in this match-up, it is also true that Tennessee has the better defense. I like the physical style that the Titans play and feel that, especially at home with playoff loss revenge, they are going to give the Patriots a lot of trouble in this game. Tom Brady and New England is off that big showdown win versus Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. Also, the Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run as a dog and this is their only home game in the month of November! In fact, it is Tennessee's only home game between mid-October and early December so, with playoff revenge also factored in, you know this one has been circled in red on the Titans calendars! The Titans are also 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record and again, are being undervalued here in my opinion. Grab the hungry home dog! 8* TENNESSEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Bears thoroughly obliterated the Bills last week, right? After all the final score was Chicago 41, Buffalo 9. Well, ladies and gentlemen, the fact is that the Bears were actually outgained in that game! Chicago only had 180 yards of total offense and yet they had 41 points. It was a turnover-fueled win for the Bears and you can see where I am going with this. It absolutely has led to significant line value this week for a Lions team that is coming off a deceiving final score of their own and will absolutely be ready for this divisional match-up. Detroit did lose at Minnesota last week by a margin of 15 points but they were only outgained by 74 yards. Also, the Lions have been ready for their biggest games. Again, the Vikings loss was a bit of a faulty final score and in their only other divisional game so far this season they beat Green Bay by 8. The other big game for Detroit this season was when they faced head coach Matt Patricia's prior team, the Patriots, and indeed the Lions got the upset win in that game. The point is that this divisional game at Chicago is certainly one that falls into the "important" category for Patricia and Company. That means you can expect a huge effort here and the Bears are simply over-valued. None of the 5 teams that Chicago has beaten this season has a winning record an the combined record of those teams is 14-28 for a .333 winning percentage. To see them as a TD favorite here shows just how skewed public perception can get. By the way, the Lions are on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in November games and the Bears are on a 6-15 ATS (and 4-17 SU!) run in all games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. 8* DETROIT

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #195 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in USC Trojans vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET - This total has gone from being closer to 50 to now closer to 45. This is completely understandable because Cal has played very solid defense this season and is coming of a pair of strong efforts in that regard. However, this is leading to huge value in this match-up in my opinion. I know USC tends to play at a slower pace than most teams when you look at their stats this season. However, Trojans head coach Clay Helton took over play-calling duties for last week's game and also the offensive line coach was fired prior to that game. In other words, coach Helton certainly means "business" when it comes to lighting a fire under this offense. Right on cue USC responded by putting up 38 points last week. Now guys of course I am no fool and realize that strong performance was against the weak defense of Oregon State. However, I love the set-up here because not only are the Trojans back home and feeling confident after that win, they catch a Golden Bears defense that has gone very hard for 3 straight weeks and that is playing in their 4th location in 4 weeks! Cal traveled to Oregon State then came home to face Washington and then headed north again to face Washington State and now they head south to faced the Trojans. Give the Bears defense credit for holding up in these 3 games but note that they did allow 334 yards passing last week. Also, the Southern Cal defense allowed over 300 passing yards last week for the 2nd time in 3 games. Also, though their run defense was strong last week, USC previously allowed an average of 241.5 rushing yards per game in their two prior games. With big games for the Trojans against rival UCLA and undefeated Notre Dame on deck, the USC defensive focus may not be at its absolute best here. At the same time, with the Bears off such a grueling stretch, I think this is the week Cal's defense finally collapses. Combining all these factors with the downward line move and the spectacular weather expected in LA Saturday night and you have the perfect scenario for a solid over. These teams have averaged scoring 65 points per game in their last 5 meetings and none of the games totaled less than 48 points. The Golden Bears are a long-term 11-5 in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. Also, California is 6-3 to the over as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Trojans are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 home games. I know this is a contrarian play in many ways but, from a situational perspective these are the types of spots that offer the greatest value. Also note that Cal's offense is averaging 426 yards per game on the road this season and Southern Cal's offense has averaged 32.5 points per game their last 6 games and there is a lot of confidence with Helton calling plays again. Cal will be forced to air it out some to try to match the Trojans and so look for more points here than many are expecting! 10* OVER the total in USC

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #122 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - I have a ton of respect for Clemson. The Tigers are a tremendous football team. However, they have enjoyed a string of blowout wins now that has resulted in an inflated line in a situation that truly is likely to be one of their toughest games, from a situational standpoint, of this season. A night game in mid-November at Boston College means temperatures likely starting out in the upper 30s and possibly falling to near freezing as well as some extra wind chill with some pretty stiff winds blowing through Chestnut Hill as well. The point is that this is certainly not typical weather for Clemson to deal with. Now certainly this doesn't stop Clemson dead in their tracks. They're very talented, very fast, and very skilled. The point is that the Tigers will score some points. But for them to go to Boston College and blast the Eagles by a 3 touchdown margin is something I don't see happening. The Eagles have a solid defense that has also shown a lot of "bend but don't break" this season. BC is allowing just 20.8 points per game their last 4 games. Also, the Eagles are solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This includes an offensive line that returned all 5 starters from last season and is loaded with experience. The Eagles have averaged over 500 yards of offense per game at home this season. Granted the Clemson defense is tough so there will be many challenges in this game for the BC offense but they have the veterans and the physicality to get some push against this tough Tigers defense. Boston College is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and that includes 3-0 ATS this season. Long-term the Eagles are 3-1 ATS as a home dog in a range of 17.5 to 21 points. They lost all 4 of those games SU but the point is they covered all but 1 and I love the value here on a cold night at Chestnut Hill with a very physical team capable of winning battles in the trenches. Grab the big points! 10* BOSTON COLLEGE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) @ Utah Utes @ 5:30 ET - This is a contrarian play because certainly, on the surface, it would appear that Utah is a great play in this spot. After all, the Utes are at home, they're playing with revenge, and they're laying a small number of points. Upon closer inspection though you'll see why I am going contrarian here. Even thought the Utes are off a loss and the Ducks are off a win (another reason that would normally support backing Utah) the value is with the road dog in this match-up. The Utes are going to be without RB Zack Moss for this game and QB Tyler Huntley has been lost for the season. The RB issue is significant but the QB issue is very concerning as the Utes have inexperience at that position behind Huntley. In terms of technical data, Utah is a long-term 33-49 ATS in games where they are favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, the Ducks have won 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams and that includes 3 of the last 4 at Utah. With the Utes having redshirt freshman Kelley at QB and the visitor having covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, I like having the points with a Ducks team poised for another road win at Utah. 8* OREGON

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Alabama Crimson Tide @ 3:30 ET - Alabama, of course, is the best team in CFB and they dominated LSU more than anyone really expected. However, that huge win last week over the Tigers does leave the Crimson Tide in, arguably, their biggest flat spot of the season. Last week's game was "The Game" where, if Bama was going to get upset this season, that was going to be it. With that being said, and the fact that it did not happen and the Tide rolled, I see this week's game being much more challenging than many expect. Alabama is breathing a sigh of relief for winning at LSU last week but this Bulldogs defense is not going to be fun to deal with. Mississippi State has played a strength of schedule very comparable to that of Alabama's and the Bulldogs numbers on defense are very bit as good of those of the Tide. Now, for certain, the key edge that Alabama does have here is their passing game. However, the Bulldogs pass defense has allowed just 177 passing yards per game this season in SEC action. I am, of course, NOT saying that Mississippi State is going to shutdown the powerful Alabama offense. But the fact is I do feel strongly that is going to be tough for the Crimson Tide to build a huge margin in this game and will gladly take advantage of the big number posted on this game. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS their last 8 as a double digit dog. Alabama is on a 4-7 ATS run in home games. I'll grab the big points. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Friday 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This is the point in the season where a game like this means PLENTY to a team that is 2-7 on the season. If this game was on a Saturday afternoon it would not mean so much but Louisville knows they are THE GAME in early action Friday and the college football world will be tuned in for this one as it involves a ranked Syracuse team. Of course the Cardinals have no shot at bowl eligibility and so a game like this is a rare opportunity to do something positive late in the season. We all saw what happened last night with Wake Forest upsetting the Wolfpack at NC State and that line was nearly identical to this line. Now, of course, the Demon Deacons needed a win to help in their quest for bowl eligibility but, seriously, how many people really expected Wake Forest to win outright as a nearly 20 point dog? The point being that late season games like this (especially on a weeknight) can be dangerous for large favorites. I expect that to be the case again here. While I don't expect Louisville to get a massive upset, I do fully expect them to stay inside this massive number. We're simply getting some extra line value here because everyone saw the Cards get destroyed by Clemson Saturday but the Tigers, of course, are one of the top teams in the nation. Syracuse, for as strong as their offense certainly is, definitely has a sub-par defense. The Orange are allowing nearly as many yards per game as the Cardinals are per game this season! Louisville, in a rare big dog role, is a long-term 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. Syracuse is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record and that includes 0-3 ATS this season! Overall, the Orange have been outgained over their last 5 games and they were outgained in last week's 17 point win over Wake Forest. In other words, it was a bit of a "phony final" and is also helping to give us line value here. Additionally, Syracuse was only 2-2 SU in their 4 prior games and the two wins came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. The point is that the Orange are being severely over-valued here and I am happy to grab the big dog value with a team looking to atone for last week's horrible performance where they were embarrassed by one of the best teams in the country. 8* LOUISVILLE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #108 Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is looking to fade the Steelers here because they're off the big game against the Ravens. However, when they faced Baltimore earlier this season they then blasted an NFC South foe in their very next games as Pittsburgh crushed the Falcons 41-17. In fact it was that very game that began the current run for the Steelers and they've never looked back. Very quietly this team has made tremendous progress on defense but many are not taking notice. Pittsburgh has allowed just 18 points per game their last 4 games and the yardage allowed is even more impressive. The Steelers have given up only 276 yards per game in their last 4 games, all wins! Those who like historical data will like the fact that Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games versus the Panthers. Overall, the Steelers have excelled against the NFC with a 10-5 ATS in their last 15. Carolina is 2-7 ATS long-term in Thursday games including 0-3 ATS in recent seasons. The Panthers road games this season saw them lose at Atlanta and at Washington. The only road win they had was at Philly and, though they certainly deserve some credit for the comeback, the Eagles certainly "helped" Carolina rally late from a 17-0 deficit. The point is that the markets are giving a little too much credit to the Panthers right now in my opinion and not enough to a Steelers team that is really starting to put it together on defense plus has the home field edge here. The Panthers are off 3 straight wins but they aren't known for rattling off long winning streaks. Prior to last week's win and cover Carolina was 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Steelers have the better passing attack offensively and, in terms of pass defense, the Panthers have allowed an average of 285 passing yards in 6 of their 7 last games (they had one exceptional game against the Redskins in this stretch). The Steelers have allowed just 192 passing yards per game their last 3 games. I respect the Panthers but this is the only home game for Pittsburgh between late October and early December and they're ready to make the most of it. 10* PITTSBURGH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #109 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 7:30 ET - With Demon Deacons QB Sam Hartman out for the season and a very high total posted on this game, the first reaction would be that there is value with the under. However, in typical contrarian fashion I am going with the over in this match-up. First off, Wake Forest does have other options at QB. Secondly, the weather is going to be great in Raliegh, NC Thursday evening. Thirdly, both teams have been piling up yardage on offense. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, both teams have been giving up a ton of yardage and have been struggling to get stops. This is one of the those games where both teams should move the ball up and down the field with plenty of points scored. Wake Forest has averaged 512.5 yards and 40 points their last two games. NC State has averaged 479 yards and 44 points their last two games. The Wolfpack have averaged 38 points per game their last 4 games at home. The issue for North Carolina State is a defense that has allowed an averaged of 492 yards and 40 points per game their last 3 games. As the season has gone on, they have worn down and this game is on a short week. As for Wake Forest, they've had issues on defense all season long but, like the Wolfpack, the Demon Deacons D also appears especially vulnerable of late. Wake Forest has given up 44 points and 534 yards per game their last 4 games. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times the Wolfpack have been a favorite. The over is 6-2 in the Demon Deacons last 8 games. Also, Wake Forest is 2-0 in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. This number is big for Thursday's game with good reason! 10* OVER the total in NC State

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #103 Wednesday 8* Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Bobcats, at least in early wagering through Tuesday evening, are the popular choice. Of course this makes sense as Ohio University has rolled 3 straight teams heading into this game and also the Bobcats have had the upper hand in this series going 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. However, in the Redhawks are a very dangerous home underdog here. This is a rivalry game and means a lot to Miami-Ohio even though they have a sub-par record on the season. The Redhawks want this game badly and Ohio U is truly in a classic lookahead spot here as the Bobcats have a huge game on deck against Buffalo. The Bulls entered Tuesday night's game versus Kent with a 5-0 record and, of course, it is hard for the Bobcats not to get caught looking ahead. For the Redhawks their full focus is certainly here and I also like the fact that Miami-Ohio has played the tougher schedule this season in terms of comparing these two teams. While it is true that Ohio U has held their last 3 opponents each to just 14 points, the Redhawks have averaged 37 points per game their last 6 games and have not been held below 30 in any of those games. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS this season when coming off a conference game and 12-6 ATS the last 2+ seasons as an underdog. Miami-Ohio is 15-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points.  The Redhawks also have the rest edge here as they played last week on Tuesday while the Bobcats played on Thursday. I expect an upset but will grab the "insurance" with the FG + the hook in this one. 8* MIAMI-OHIO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) @ Buffalo Bulls @ 7:30 ET - When you are a huge underdog, you welcome all the help that you can get from Mother Nature. In this case, this game at Buffalo is offering plenty of help based on the weather forecast. The Bulls, as you would expect for a MAC team, play in a rather small home venue. That means that when the winds are whipping through there it can create havoc for the passing and kicking game. Winds are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph range on Tuesday night in Amherst in the Buffalo area. I love the big dog in a spot like this catching more than 3 TDs. The Golden Flashes have been playing a little better in recent weeks. One of their biggest weaknesses on the season is pass defense but, again, based on the strong winds forecast for Tuesday night, Buffalo is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot. In comparing these two teams, they are nearly equal in terms of the ground game both on offense and defense. The big edge the Bulls would have is the passing game but, again, that is going to be at least somewhat (if not significantly) impacted by the weather in this one. The Golden Flashes have played better in recent weeks even though they've had a road-heavy schedule (they finish the season with two home games). Kent State is only 1-3 SU their last 4 games but two of those three losses came by just a single point. Another key here is that Buffalo is in a sandwich spot. The two teams closest to the Bulls in the MAC East standings are Miami-Ohio and Ohio U. With Buffalo off a key win over the Redhawks last Tuesday and having a huge game on deck with the Bobcats next Wednesday, this is a "tricky" scheduling spot for the Bulls. The Golden Flashes are playing hard for head coach Sean Lewis. At the age of 31 he is the youngest head coach in the nation and has brought a lot of positive energy to the program and they are heading in the right direction despite their unimpressive W-L record. Another key to the value here is that Bulls linebacker (2nd in the NATION in tackles last season) Khalil Hodge is out for the 1st half of this game due to a targeting suspension. Look for the Golden Flashes to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 10* KENT STATE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Though it may seem tough to back a team off 3 straight losses, going contrarian is absolutely the way to go here. Indeed, the Titans have lost 3 straight games but 2 of the 3 losses came by 1 point. That said, there is some solid line value here with grabbing the points. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS the last 6 times they've been a dog. Also, the Titans are on a long-term 6-0 ATS run in Monday night football games. When Tennessee enters a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games, the Titans have gone 5-0 ATS! The Cowboys have covered just 1 game in their last 5 contests. Also, 1 of their 3 SU wins this season came by just 2 points. Again, the key point being here that there is value with having the points in this one. Both teams are very hungry as they each are coming off a bye week that followed a losing effort in their most recent game. All that untapped energy now has been building for extra time and I look for a tight, physical contest. That is precisely the type of game where, more often than not, having those points on your side proves to be key! Note that the Titans are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game as a dog of more than 3 points against an NFC foe that has a losing record! Also, under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 4-9 ATS when off a loss to a division rival in their prior game. Not only is Dallas off a loss to the Redskins, they have a big game at Philly on deck Sunday night. Grab the points. 8* TENNESSEE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - While it is true the Packers are going all the way from a game on the West Coast to one on the East Coast, it is also true that the Patriots are coming off a Monday night game. The point is that the short rest for New England really negates any edge they would have had based on the Green Bay situation. Also, not to get too technical but, the fact is that with this being a night game, going from the West Coast to the East Coast loses some of its problem factor. As for the match-up here, I love the fact that the Patriots had a very fortunate cover last week at Buffalo. The Pats won the game by 19 points but outgained the Bills by only 54 yards. Now instead of facing a Bills team with a very tenuous back-up QB situation, the Patriots face one of the game's best in Aaron Rodgers. Also, you know that Rodgers (and the entire Packers team) is going to be extremely hungry here. Not only did they lose late at LA last week, they also suffered a fumble on the final kick-off from the Rams. It was a horrible gaffe and part of what cost that kick returner his spot on the team as he was released after that! The fact of the matter is that the Packers had plenty of time to try and get into field goal range...especially with Rodgers at the helm. As a result, there is simply no discounting the hunger that this Green Bay team has coming into this game. The Packers want this game and it is with good reason that the odds makers opened this one up with NE as less than a TD favorite. Overall the Packers pass defense ranks much better than the Patriots does. As for the offense, Green Bay holds the overall edge there as well on the season. You can see why I like getting a hungry dog like the Packers when they've got numbers like this to support them as well! There is also an interesting ATS stat here that fits perfectly. The Packers, under head coach Mike McCarthy, with last week's cover at the Rams improved to 10-1 ATS when they face an opponent that is off back to back away games. LA was off of 3 straight road games last week and note that the Pats are off B2B road games heading into this one. Grab the generous points here as an outright upset certainly would not surprise but I love the insurance of the points in this one! 8* GREEN BAY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - When an 8-0 team opens up at nearly a pick'em line it is not a mistake. However, the markets usually jump all over these types of situations and, sure enough, that is precisely what happened here. LA has gone from roughly a pick to a -2.5 as of Saturday night and I love the value we're getting here with the Saints. How many teams go undefeated in an NFL season? It is RARE as you know and, the point is, even though this is only the half-way point of the season, you know a loss is likely coming for LA sooner rather than later and this look likes the perfect spot for it! The Saints are on a roll and I know they were out-gained significantly by the Vikings last week but, the point is, New Orleans continues to find a way to win and their confidence is sky-high and they are at home for this one!  A lot of factors going in their favor here. Also, for a FIFTH straight week, the Rams are playing in a different city. Seattle has gone from Seattle to San Francisco to Denver to home in Los Angeles and now right back on the road again at New Orleans. The Saints are on a 6-0 SU run and 5-0 ATS run so they are the ideal team to step up and knock off the Rams here on Sunday. Also, New Orleans is 6-2 ATS their last 8 as a home dog. The Saints have a long-term reputation for stepping up in games against winning teams. Not only did they knock off the Vikings last week but also the Redskins early this season. In fact New Orleans entered this season 12-1 ATS in games against NFC foes with a winning percentage greater than 66.6% and I look for another cover here as I do expect the upset win but definitely will grab the points for insurance. With last week's win and cover against a Vikings team that was on a winning streak, the Saints are now 14-3 ATS under head coach Sean Payton when they're on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games and also facing an opponent on a winning streak of 2 or more games. Keep in mind, though the Rams are 8-0 SU on the season they've covered just once in their last 5 games. Great home dog value with the Saints in this one. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #461 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - The Falcons have an edge here coming off their bye week. The Redskins are off a big divisional battle with the Giants last week. Washington is in an ugly 2-8 ATS when they are coming off a divisional game and facing an NFC opponent. The Redskins are also 0-6 ATS in games where they are favored by more than one point against an NFC South opponent. Washington, under coach Jay Gruden, is also a disastrous 1-9 ATS when they are a home favorite against an opponent off a home game. Of course the Falcons, prior to their bye, got the win over the Giants at home in Atlanta and New York rallied for the cover in that game. In other words, there is some additional line value here because of the non-covering result in that game for Atlanta. The Falcons, under Dan Quinn, are 9-2 when they are an underdog after being a SU winner in their prior game. The Redskins defense has been strong overall this season but they rank only in the middle of the pack against the pass. That is an issue here as the Falcons strength on offense is their passing game as it ranks as one of the best in the NFL. The Redskins passing attack ranks as one of the worst in the league and I feel Washington is over-valued at this point in the season with their 4-2 record while the Falcons are much better than their 3-4 record is showing the betting markets. The result? Big value! 8* ATLANTA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - This may seem like a lot of points since the game involves the perennially awful Browns. However, Cleveland's offense has looked a little better at times this season and this is an interesting match-up as it features Baker Mayfield's Browns going against Pat Mahomes' Chiefs. Keep in in mind these guys last met in 2016 when Mayfield was at Oklahoma and Mahomes was at Texas Tech. That game totaled a ridiculous 1,700 yards of offense. Now, of course, we're not likely to see more than a third of that total in this "rematch" but just now that these guys are doing to do everything they can to outdo each other there. Also, as November days go in Cleveland, Sunday is going to be one of the more exceptionally nice days you'll have there. Mild air with highs in the upper 50s and a south wind and no precipitation. It sets up well for both of the offenses to thrive. The Chiefs rank among the best offenses in the league but also among the worst defenses! The Browns offense, as noted above, has been "spotty" but they'll take advantage of facing a weak defense in this one while, at the same time, Cleveland's biggest weakness is their defense. Going through a coaching change is unlikely to help in terms of "continuity on defense" and Mahomes and the Chiefs pick them apart all day long in this one. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Kansas City's road games this season while the Browns O/U improves to 5-2 in games against AFC opponents on the year. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #385 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Huskies vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET - Newsflash...it could be raining in Seattle Saturday night. Guys, all kidding aside, as everyone knows...it rains very often in Seattle. It is not a big deal especially with the rain is likely to be rather light and especially when the winds are light. The heaviest rain and best chances for rain are during the day but when this game kicks off at 6 pm local time it is likely to be very light rain even if that. The reason I mention all this is because I feel the weather forecast has had a lot to do with the drop on the total on this one and I am happy to step in and take advantage! Ladies and gentleman the Stanford defense is atrocious! The Cardinal were in a must win game last week, had a huge lead at the half, and they blew it and lost to Washington State. That was the 4th time in the last 5 games that the once vaunted Stanford defense has allowed 31 points or more. I don't even have to tell you, with those kinds of numbers, that this Cardinal defense has issues. What I will say is a positive for Stanford is their production on offense. They've averaged 27.3 points per game their past 6 games. Also, a Cardinal offense once known for Bryce Love and the run game really is pass-intensive now and they've averaged 287.2 passing yards their past 5 games. Of course a pass-heavy offense is good for an over. The over is 4-1 in Stanford's last 5 games. Now I am well aware that the Huskies have put impressive numbers on defense this season. However, prior to holding the Golden Bears to 12 points in a loss at Cal last week, Washington had allowed an average of 355 yards per game their 3 prior games. Also, the Huskies have trended under heavily this season despite the fact that their offensive production has been good. Before being shutdown by Cal's solid defense last week, Washington was averaging 430.5 yards per game this season. Considering how bad the Cardinal defense has been of late, we can count on plenty of points from the Huskies here but don't be surprised if Stanford is matching them score for score in this one. This one will be much higher-scoring than many are expecting. 10* OVER the total in Washington