Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #178 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is a tough spot for the Steelers. I know many will be jumping on them here as they expect them to bounce back off their first loss of the season and because Pittsburgh does have the better defense in this match-up. However, due to that strange scheduling quirk with the Steelers match-up with the Ravens being played almost a full week later than originally scheduled, Pittsburgh is now playing their 3rd game in 12 days! That is tough on a team plus they faced a Baltimore team that is a physical rival of theirs plus they faced a tough Redskins defense. How much will the Steelers have left in the tank here? I feel it won't be enough to get past a strong Bills team. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh's road wins have included beating the Titans (but only by a field goal) and the Ravens (but Steelers were significantly out-statted). But the other Pitt road wins were against teams that are a combined 9-27 on the season. Now they travel to face a Buffalo team that is 5-1 SU at home this season with the only loss coming against the world champion Chiefs. Overall the Bills enter this game having covered 4 straight while the Steelers are now off back to back ATS losses. I know Pittsburgh has revenge from last year's home loss to Buffalo as well but this is simply a very bad spot for them. 3 NFL game in a dozen days and especially when facing physical teams in the 2 prior games...it is just not a good set up. The home team holds the edges here. Also, the Bills have scored an average of 34 points their last 4 games while the Steelers have averaged just 18 points their last 2 games. The home team playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be executing better on offense than Pittsburgh given the circumstances. 10* BUFFALO

Non-Conf Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #169 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets @ 4:05 ET - We are getting a little lower total here because the 0-12 Jets are involved and because the Seahawks have been trending under for many weeks now. I'll take advantage of the lower number and go with the over here based on the situation. The Jets have some confidence from scoring 28 points last week even though they still ultimately fell short to the Raiders. As for the Seahawks, they are angry about losing at home to the Giants but that was a tougher defense they faced and they still managed 21 first downs in the game but just didn't have the points to show for it. The Seahawks are now angry coming off a loss and Russell Wilson and Company won't hold back against a New York defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league. Not only that, the Seahawks defense is just as bad and Sam Darnold and Company will take advantage. Seattle is a huge favorite here for a reason. They will score a ton of points. The thing is that the Jets also could get a late backdoor cover here because their offense will score some points too. New York has scored at least 27 in 3 of their last 4 games. The Seahawks, before scoring just 12 points last week, had scored an average of 33 points per game in their first 5 home games this season. Now in a back to back home game situation, the high-scoring ways resume here. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #160 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - You wouldn't know it based on the way they played last week but the Bears do have a solid defense. That said, after getting embarrassed at home by allowing 400 passing yards to the Lions last week, I do expect a big response from the Chicago defense in the 2nd game of back to back home contests. No one likes getting embarrassed at home and no one likes losing 6 straight games but that is currently the situation for the Bears. They will respond here against a Texans team that is getting a little too much respect from the betting markets. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the league and, prior to winning their most recent road game, had been 1-4 SU and ATS in road games this season. Chicago's offense has been moving the ball better with Trubisky at QB again and will take advantage of the porous Texans defense in this one. To the public bettor it will look easy to take Houston here and fade a Bears team on a 6-game losing streak. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of that thinking and grabbing the home dog in this one as they respond off last week's home loss to Detroit. 8* CHICAGO

Game of the Month - 10* Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - The Bears have struggled on offense this season, particularly their ground game. However, Baylor has the better defense in this match-up and they are 2-1 SU at home this season. There is a reason that a ranked Oklahoma State team is favored by less than a TD against a Bears team that has a 2-6 SU record on the season. In other words, don't be fooled by the line here. It is set this way for a reason and I have a strong feeling about an upset win here. Baylor has won 4 of the last 5 meetings both SU and ATS. Also, the Bears are allowing just 355 yards per game and their defense keeps them in games. Conversely, the Cowboys have allowed an average of over 500 yards per game their last 3 games plus they enter this game on an 0-5 ATS run. The home dog is going to give Oklahoma State all they can handle here just as they seem to do every year in recent meetings. I am expecting an outright upset as this Bears defense has played motivated football all season long and the Baylor offense does have a veteran QB and a decent passing game. They'll find a way in my opinion for the outright win but I am grabbing the points for added insurance here. 10* BAYLOR plus points

Early Dominator - 8* OVER in Colorado - There is some snow in the Boulder area but the heaviest stuff is actually not coming into the area until after this early game (starts at 10 AM locally) will be in the books already. That said, the winds will be light and though temperatures are cold of course they are not brutal and certainly not anything that teams like Utah and Colorado haven't dealt with before. The Buffaloes are coming in off a low-scoring win but they had a lot of yardage in that game plus allowed a lot of yardage. In other words, the scoreboard was not commensurate with the yardage in that game. Also, though I liked the Utah offense coming into this season, the defense lost a lot of key personnel. Though the Utes have outperformed my expectations on that side of the ball in their few games. I do feel that Colorado gives them a tougher match-up and the Buffaloes will score plenty here but also have trouble stopping Utah. Keep in mind the Buffs allowed only 13 points last week but over 400 yards of offense to Arizona in that one. In other words, they were fortunate. That is helping to give us line value here and we will take advantage with the low total as the Buffaloes are off back to back unders but last week's result was a crazy one and their prior game was against defensive-minded San Diego State. This one is set up for plenty of points and yet we have a low total to work with based on recent results. 8* OVER the total in Colorado

MWC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #309 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Jose State Spartans vs Nevada Wolf Pack @ 10 ET - Both of these teams have trended under this season but that is merely helping to give us line value here as neither team's defense is as good as their O/U record this season would suggest. We are now getting late into the season to where these unusual records that were not commensurate with what happened on the field start to reverse. In other words, a high-scoring game is likely here at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, NV. Yes, this game is being played a neutral site due to covid restrictions in California. The Spartans passing attack this season has been strong with 270 yards through the air per game on average. The Wolf Pack passing attack has been even stronger with 334.4 yards per game on the season. Both teams have been solid against the run away from home this season so these teams will go to the air early, often, and throughout this game and that will lead to big yardage and less stoppages of the clock than a run-based game. We're looking at a lot of fireworks through the air in this one. San Jose State has scored an average of 34 points per game its last 4 games. Nevada's only low-scoring effort was at Hawaii. In their other 6 games this season they have averaged 33 points per game. This total is in the upper 50s but you can see why I am expecting at least upper 60s in this one given those numbers. These teams combined for 79 points in last year's match-up and the Spartans have scored 34 points or more in back to back games and the Wolf Pack scored 37 points in their most recent game. 10* OVER the total in San Jose State

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are off a huge 45-0 road win over the Chargers. However, don't jump to conclusions based on that one performance. For one thing, New England only had a yardage edge of 33 yards in that game. Secondly, the Patriots entered that game having lost 4 of 5 road games SU and ATS. So New England is off a rare road win. As for the Rams, their most recent home game was a rare loss. Yes, Los Angeles was a perfect 4-0 SU at home before they lost hosting San Francisco two weeks ago. The Rams responded by blasting the Cardinals at Arizona last week. Unlike the Pats, LA actually had a big yardage edge that justified the big win. Los Angeles dominated their division rival to the tune of a 463-232 edge in yardage. Not only that, the Rams have big time revenge here because they lost in the Super Bowl in an embarrassing performance against Tom Brady and the Patriots two years ago. Will they get their revenge? I feel strongly that they absolutely will as Brady is now in Tampa Bay and Cam Newton has struggled badly in his time with the Patriots. New England enters this game off back to back wins but has averaged just 235 yards of offense in those two victories. The Patriots will prove to be no match for a revenge-minded Rams team that has the much better offense plus one of the best defenses in the NFL. This line may seem set in a strange range considering it is a -5 but don't let that scare you away on this one. It is bigger than a 3 or 4 for a reason and I see LA pulling away for a victory by a double digit margin in this one. Look for the Rams to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games while the Patriots drop to 2-5 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS 

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7 ET - The OVER is 7-0 in the Panthers last 7 games. The Yellow Jackets are coming off an under but, prior to that, the over was 6-1 in their last 7 games. Also, though their most recent game did result in an under, there actually was over 800 yards of offense in the game as Georgia Tech totaled over 400 as well. That was an unusually low-scoring game because the Jackets were stopped on downs on 4 separate occasions. That won't happen again here. The Panthers can't just focus on stopping the GT ground game here because now Tech QB Sims actually has an 8-3 TD-INT ratio over his last 6 games. The Yellow Jackets are a little more dual threat than they have been in the past when it was all about the run. That said, the Pitt defense (which also has not been as dominant this season) will face a different challenge than they have in recent meetings. The Panthers D got thrashed by Georgia Tech in their most recent game. Prior to that, the Pitt defense had a strong road game but it was against a Florida State team that has already "mailed it in" on this season. In their two prior road games this season the Panthers allowed 31 points in each game. As for the Yellow Jackets defense they allowed 13 points in the first game this season but have since allowed an average of 40 points per game their last 8 games. The Pittsburgh offense had averaged 44 points per game in their two games preceding the Clemson debacle and, overall, the Panthers are averaging scoring 30 points per game in road games this season. 10* OVER the total in Georgia Tech

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #483 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:05 ET - Decent weather expected in Baltimore this evening as it will be chilly but no precipitation and winds will be subsiding by the evening hours after a little bit of breeziness in the afternoon. That means both offenses should be fully functional here and I expect a huge effort from the Ravens offensive unit as they get QB Lamar Jackson back for this one. He will give the Cowboys defense fits in this one. Dallas has struggled on that side of the ball all season and has allowed 32.6 points per game on the year! The offense for the Cowboys has had struggles but they faced adversity with losing starting QB Dak Prescott to season-ending injury and then also being without QB Andy Dalton some too (covid-19). Dalton will be under center for this one and, interestingly, he has had some big games in his career against the Ravens. As a member of the Bengals, Dalton would face division rival Baltimore twice a year. Can he recapture some of that magic here? The Ravens have allowed 28 points or more in 3 of their last 4 home games. Each of Baltimore's last two home games have gone over the total. Look for that to go to 3-0 L3 after this one is in the books as the Cowboys also move to 3-0 to the over their last 3 games overall. Dallas is off that ugly effort versus the Redskins and will respond here (scored 31 in most recent road game) but won't be able to stop a Ravens team that is also fired up to play better on offense with coming off a loss but now getting Jackson back. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #485 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET in Glendale, AZ - This game being played in Arizona because of the covid issues in California and that fact is crazy and I expect this game to be a little crazy as well. The 49ers are off a huge upset win against the division rival Rams and that could leave the defense a little flat for this one. Also, San Francisco had allowed an average of 32.7 points per game in its 3 games preceding the win over the Rams. Now the Niners take on a Bills team that has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 31.3 points per game in its last 4 games overall. Buffalo's defense was supposed to be its strength heading into this season but they have underachieved a bit this season and, as a result, are a little over-rated. That is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The Bills are off a solid win over the Chargers in which they allowed just 17 points but that was preceded by a stretch in which Buffalo allowed 27.6 points per game over their 9 preceding games. San Francisco is not known for their offensive production but they have scored at least 23 points in 4 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 27 points per game in non-conference action this season. The Bills have averaged scoring 36.3 points per game in their non-conference match-ups this season. All 3 of Buffalo's non-conference games went over the total while 2 of 3 for the Niners went over the total. All signs point to a high-scoring match-up here based on the long-term trending too and we'll take advantage of the lower total that has been helped by last week's results as each game stayed under the total. This match-up has much different dynamics in terms of being a non-conference match-up. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Non Conf Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #487 Monday 10* Top Play Washington (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 5 ET - This set up favors Washington in a big way. While they have not played since Thanksgiving and are well rested here, the situation is much different for Pittsburgh. The Steelers were supposed to play on Thanksgiving but the game got postponed multiple times because of covid-19 issues and did not get played until the following Wednesday. That means Washington has a rest edge of nearly a full week in comparison with Pittsburgh's situation. Also, it is simply hard to envision the Steelers finishing the season with an undefeated record. Pittsburgh is now 11-0 on the season and you know that a defeat is imminent. I am not necessarily forecasting that this happens here but I do feel the points will prove to be well worth the taking. 4 of the Steelers last 6 wins have come by a margin of 5 or less points. We're getting a solid 6.5 across the board in this one as of early Monday morning. Many don't realize this but Washington does have a very solid defense. Look for that to be a key in terms of them hanging around in this game. In Washington's last 6 games they had one bad game defensively but allowed an average of only 14.2 points per game in the other 5 games. Washington has scored a solid average of 26.6 points per game its last 5 games and Alex Smith has thrown for 1,030 yards in his 4 games since taking over after the injury to Kyle Allen. Look for the Steelers to drop to 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a non-divisional home favorite as Pittsburgh is off a divisional win and this is a non-conference match-up on short rest. Also, the Steelers have a tough road trip at an AFC opponent, Buffalo, on deck. 10* WASHINGTON

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs are over-valued here. What many are looking at here is that the Broncos looked so bad last week against the Saints but, keep in mind, they were without any of their quarterbacks. Those guys are back this week including Drew Lock and I expect a much better performance on offense as a result. The other thing many are looking at here is that the Broncos lost the first meeting to the Chiefs with an ugly final score of 43 to 16. However, Denver actually outgained Kansas City by 125 yards in that game and the difference in the game was the turnovers as the Broncos had 4 of them! Even penalties played a role as Denver had 5 compared to KC having just 1. Each of the last 3 meetings have been blowout wins for the Chiefs but that is helping to give us line value here because the Broncos already proved in the first meeting (despite the final score) that they can compete with Kansas City. The Chiefs have won 6 straight but each of their last 3 wins have come by a margin of 4 or less points. That is part of the reason that KC enters this game on an 0-3 ATS losing streak. As for the Broncos, they are 3-1 ATS in AFC road games this season. The Chiefs have the better offense in this match-ups but the better defense (despite ppg averages) belongs to the Broncos as they are allowing 19.3 yards per game less than Kansas City is. Look for another strong effort from the underdog in this one just like we saw statistically in the first game. The difference in this one is that it equates to a cover. 10* DENVER

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #489 Sunday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (+) @ USC Trojans @ 7:30 ET - This is a much a play against USC as it is a play on Washington State. Going to keep this one short and sweet but the fact is that the Trojans are very fortunate to be 3-0 on the season as they barely escaped against Arizona and Arizona State. Though the Trojans did pull away for a big win over Utah, they were fortunate in that they caught the Utes playing their first game of the season and USC took full advantage of that. However, that is certainly not the case here and the Cougars have the firepower on offense to hang around in this one. That is particularly true with QB Jayden De Laura upgraded to probable for this one. Washington State has struggled on the defensive side of the ball but they faced Oregon and Oregon State (when the Beavers QB was healthy). Look for the Cougars to fare better on that side of the ball in this one as the Trojans have been a little inconsistent on offense. As for the Cougars offense, they have scored well and moved the ball well and I certainly like that combo here with them catching nearly two full td's in this match-up at Southern Cal. 10* WASHINGTON STATE

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles allowed just 9 points in their game against Dallas when the Cowboys were already without Prescott and did not have Dalton either. In their other 10 games this season Philadelphia has allowed 27 points per game and they are most certainly going to struggle to stop Green Bay here. The Packers have scored an average of 31 points per game their last 6 games and have recorded just one under during this stretch. Look for the over trend to continue here. The Eagles Zach Ertz is a key target for Carson Wentz and he is listed as probable for this one (ankle). The Packers have allowed 29.5 points per game the last two weeks and are in a divisional sandwich here as they just knocked off the Bears and now have the Lions on deck. The Eagles are scoring 21.5 points per game on the season and have not been held under 17 points in any game this season. Given those facts plus the big line on this game - Packers favored by nearly double digits - it comes as no surprise that the over is the play in this one! The Eagles are allowing 27 points per game on the road this season and the Packers are averaging 32 points per game at home this season. Philly won't get many stops in this one but the Pack D has been a little shaky of late and I look for that to continue here as well. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #463 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - I am well aware of the Saints being a different team with Hill at quarterback rather than Brees. So too are the odds makers and yet this game opened up in the upper 40s and has dropped into the mid 40s as of early gameday morning. I am grabbing the line value on the other side of the move as I expect plenty of points in this one after the first meeting between these teams totaled only 33 points. The Falcons are expected to be without RB Todd Gurley in this one but get WR Julio Jones back most likely. This means even more emphasis on the pass for Atlanta in this one and the Saints defense gives up a much higher percentage of yards through the air than on the ground so it will be Falcons QB Matt Ryan that should key a strong performance for Atlanta here. As for the New Orleans offense, they have scored at least 24 points in all their games this season and they enter this one on an 8-game winning streak. Even with Hill at QB the Saints are still a dangerous team with many weapons on offense. Last week they faced a Denver team without any available quarterbacks so they simply played a 'game management' style of game on offense. They will not be afforded that luxury against a Falcons offense led by a veteran QB Ryan. As a result I look for more of a back and forth high-scoring game than most are expecting here. The Falcons have scored an average of 38.5 points per game in their last two home games. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta

Pac-12 Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #381 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 7 ET - Well aware of the injury situation with Grant Gunnell for the Wildcats and the fact he is listed as a game-time decision. I feel strongly that he would have been shutdown for the season already if the injury was more serious and I expect him to play in this one. Even if he does not, look for freshman QB Will Plummer to be much better this week than he was last week. Now he will have had a full week of practice with the first team offense and be prepared to make a start and this game is at home which is a big plus for Arizona. The Wildcats scored 30 points on 444 yards of offense in their only home game this season. Colorado is enjoying an undefeated start to the season but off a low-scoring win over a San Diego State that is having major issues on offense. That said, look for the Buffaloes defense to return to their typical performance levels this week and that is good news for over players. Colorado allowed an average of 37 points per game in their first two games as each game went over the total. By the way, Arizona allowed an average of 39 points per game in its first two games this season. Don't look for much defense in this one! In fact, when these teams meet there is almost always a ton of offense. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. This is precisely the type of situation I like to look for in terms of a big play as both of these teams are off low-scoring games but this followed 2 very high-scoring games for each team to begin the season. The Buffaloes first two games totaled an average of 78.5 points per game and the Wildcats first two games totaled an average of 67.5 points per game. Look for that type of high-scoring action to resume in a series that has been marked by its high-scoring results. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The Hoosiers are ranked higher than the Badgers and are also an undefeated 6-0 ATS on the season and yet they are nearly 2 TD underdogs in this match-up! See anything funny about that? Exactly! Don't fall for the attractiveness of what markets will say is a phony line here. The fact is that the Hoosiers would be in trouble here even if they had QB Michael Penix here but he is now out for the season. Indiana is facing a Wisconsin defense that has allowed only 11.7 points per game this season. Now the Hoosiers face them with a lot of question marks at the QB position too as they now have an unproven signal-caller stepping in. The Badgers are still angry off their loss a few weeks ago against Northwestern and haven't played since. Wisconsin is rested and ready to respond and lets not forget that their only two games besides the loss to the Wildcats were a pair of wins by a combined score of 94-18. The Hoosiers lost their most recent road game and that was the only other time they have been a road dog this season. Though Indiana only lost the game by 7 at Ohio State, they actually were getting blasted in that game and down huge at the half. The Hoosiers rallied in the 2nd half as the Buckeyes took their foot off the gas courtesy of a big lead and then Penix took over with big plays for the offense. Again, Penix is now out for the year and also the Badgers are angry and won't let up here and have a fantastic defense and they are at home. Wisconsin will win the battles in the trenches on both sides of the ball and when you dominate the line of scrimmage plus have the better QB situation (Mertz has been great and Coan is available now too if needed) you generally dominate the game! Look for that to be the case here and my projections have the Badgers winning this one by a margin of at least 3 touchdowns. Lay the big points as the home team improves to 11-0 SU L11 and 6-0 ATS L6 in meetings with Indiana. 10* WISCONSIN

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #357 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Noon ET - The Boilermakers keep allowing more points each week with no sign of the pattern breaking anytime soon. Purdue has allowed 20, 24, 27, 34, 37 in their five games leading into this one. As you can see, the numbers keep getting better and now the Boilermakers must deal with a Nebraska team that has a twin dangers at the QB position with a pair of dual threat quarterbacks. The Huskers running ability at the QB position will give the Purdue defense trouble as they have had issues with this already this season. However, the strength of the Boilermakers is their offense and they should have no trouble scoring plenty on a Nebraska team which has allowed 33 points per game in road games this season. Purdue's offense has looked much more dangerous since WR Moore returned and they are in line for a big game here against a Huskers defense that has allowed nearly 70% pass completions in road games this season. The Boilermakers average 305 passing yards per game this season but on the other side of the ball have shown no ability to get consistent defensive stops. As a result, this one should turn into a back and forth shootout. 8* OVER the total in Purdue

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8:30 ET - The Mountaineers have won 8 straight meetings with UL-Lafayette. Also, the Ragin' Cajuns have locked up the Sun Belt West Division. Those factors would lead one to believe that there is no way that Appalachian State, at home especially, is only a 2.5 point favorite in this one. My comment to that...exactly! In typical contrarian fashion I am taking the underdog in this one. Yes ULL has lost 8 straight to App State but that is actually a key to their motivation here. Even though they have locked up the SBC West, the Ragin' Cajuns are highly motivated to end their 8-game losing streak to the Mountaineers. The fact that ULL has allowed an average of only 330 yards per game their last 4 games is a good sign. Teams that control the defensive stats are a good team to bet on (particularly when a dog) and the Mountaineers dominated Troy in their most recent game but allowed 34 points in a loss in their game just prior to that one. On the season, the Ragin' Cajuns have played the tougher schedule. Also, ULL lost to Appalachian State twice last season including the SBC Championship Game and that was despite having 31 first downs compared to just 20 first downs for the Mountaineers in that game. Finally, on Friday night in Boone, NC the Ragin' Cajuns get their shot at revenge. Look for them to make the most of it. 10* UL LAFAYETTE

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #323 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Texas Mean Green vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 6 ET - I am well aware that the Mean Green scored just 17 points in last week's loss but they did have over 400 yards in that game. Also, teams make mistakes in terms of defensive assignments after a long layoff and the Bulldogs enter this game having not played since Halloween! Look for the rust to lead to problems containing the North Texas offense in this one. Also, the Mean Green are out for revenge after getting thrashed 52-17 last season by Louisiana Tech. Though I do expect North Texas to have a huge game on offense I expect that if they prevail it will be on the strength of that O because I do not trust their D here. The Mean Green have allowed less than 31 points in a game just once in 7 games this season. In the other games they have allowed an average of 45 points per game and that included a game against Houston Baptist (an FCS school). Similarly, the Bulldogs have allowed less than 27 points in only one of their games. In the other 6 games they allowed an average of 34.8 points per game. This game is a strange set up for Louisiana Tech and I could easily see them playing it with an aggressive "whatever happens" style which means that we could see plenty of points in this one. Based on the averages, this one should get into the 70s at least. Look for a wild one at Denton, TX on Thursday. 10* OVER the total in North Texas

*NOTE: I am aware that Lamar Jackson (among others) is now out for this game and Robert Griffin is likely getting the start at QB for the Ravens in this one. I am also aware that this game has been moved yet AGAIN - this time to WEDNESDAY. I still like this play plenty as it is a contrarian play offering huge value. Don't be surprised when the rest of the Baltimore team steps up in this huge rivalry (and revenge) game. Here is the original write-up:* AFC North Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #125 Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Tremendous line value here because the Steelers are undefeated on the season, come into this game on a 7-1 ATS run while the Ravens are on a 1-4 ATS run and off B2B SU losses. Plus Pittsburgh won the first meeting this season and that was at Baltimore. As a result of all those factors, a line that was as low as a -2.5 is now up as high as a -5.5 on the Steelers and I love the value being offered to the road dog in this one. The Ravens lost in a rain storm at New England two weeks ago and then they were looking ahead to this rematch game when they lost in OT versus Tennessee last week. That said, Baltimore is very under-valued right now. Keep in mind, they actually outgained the Steelers by over 200 yards (including a positive edge of 217 on the ground!) when they faced them of the first of this month. The Ravens were simply done in by turnovers in that game and that is what the betting markets seem to be overlooking here. This is a very strong Baltimore team and they are in a preferred role here as well! Why is that? Well, the Ravens have only lost the money ONCE the last DOZEN times they have been a road dog! I know the Steelers are having a great season. Everyone knows that. But their highly unlikely to go 16-0 and certainly this looks like a great spot for an upset win. Either way, grabbing the points should absolutely prove to be the ATS winner. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Too much value with the home dog to pass up on here. Keep in mind the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU in their last 4 game at home and the only loss came by just two points. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU in their last 3 road games and allowed 104 points in those 3 games. Seattle certainly has a talented offense but the Eagles have allowed a respectable 20.8 points per game in their last 4 home games. Also, Seattle's defense is certainly not a strength and the Eagles offense may surprise some people here. Philly has won only 3 of it's last 8 games but those other 5 games were decided by an average margin of 5.2 points per game. This line is up to nearly a full TD on Seattle and it is simply too much with them on the road for this one. Philadelphia lost in the regular season and in the playoffs last season to the Seahawks and each defeat came by exactly the same score: 17-9. Payback time here. There were very few outright upsets in Sunday's NFL but you know there are shockers nearly every week in NFL and this one has the makings of one. Double revenge spot for the Eagles and note that the Seahawks are off a big divisional revenge win over Arizona. Situational spot favors the home dog. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This is just too many points. The Bears could actually get a boost with Mitchell Trubisky returning at QB.  The fact is that Nick Foles had not been playing that well. Also, the last 4 meetings between these teams have all been decided by 8 or less points. The Bears have lost 4 straight games but each of the last 3 defeats have been by 7 or less points. The Packers are off a loss at Indianapolis Sunday in overtime while Chicago has the benefit of entering this game off a bye week. The Packers have played 10 games this season and only 4 of those have resulted in a win by a double digit margin. The Bears are still a proud team and they have had extra time to sort some things out courtesy of the bye week. Chicago actually piled up a lot of passing yardage in their two match-ups with Green Bay last season and Trubisky was the QB for both of those. Don't be surprised if they do some damage through the air in this one. They absolutely need a spark and Trubisky could provide it. The Packers are on a 2-4 ATS run and continue to be over-valued in my opinion. The defenses in this match-up are equal or even slightly favor in of the Bears. Of course Green Bay holds the edge on offense but I have a feeling Chicago is going to look much different this week on offense and will do enough damage here to stay inside this inflated number. This is a rivalry game and we're getting plenty of points when you consider that factor as well. This is a huge game for the Bears to try and close the gap on the division lead that Green Bay has. Don't be surprised when they put up a major fight in this one and stay close throughout this game as they seek the big upset win to stay in the division race. 10* CHICAGO

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around 45.5 and now is as low as 35.5 points. It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys. Hinton started out as a QB at Wake Forest before converting to RB. Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win. On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this. I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games. Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is having a fantastic season as he has made 20 of 21 field goals this season including 14 of 15 from 40+ yards (6 of 7 from 50+ yards). The Broncos ran for nearly 200 yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too. After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns. Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions. I will take it. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins, in my opinion, are one of the most over-rated teams in the league and certainly have been among the most fortunate. With Miami, you have a team who entered last week's action with a 6-3 record on the season and yet they have a yardage differential of NEGATIVE 72.1 yards per game on the season. The Dolphins only average 308.6 yards per game on offense and I feel last week's loss at Denver is a sign of things to come. I know the Jets are 0-10 on the season but they have covered back to back games and 3 of their last 4. They also are a sizable home dog here as they are getting as many as 7.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning. That is significant as New York has covered 13 of the last 17 times they have been a home dog in divisional action. The Jets got embarrassed at Miami in a 24-0 loss last month. They make up for that here and get a little payback. If they fall short of the outright win, they still stay inside the inflated number in this game. 8* NEW YORK JETS

AAC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #285 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers @ 7 ET - A pair of bad defenses here. Navy will be even worse than normal here as this is their first game played since Halloween! The Midshipmen are allowing 37 points per game this season and the over is 6-1 in their 7 games this season. Memphis saw their offense truly struggle in only one game this season and that was against the very tough defense of Cincinnati. Other than when they faced the Bearcats, the Tigers have scored an average of 41 points per game this season. Their defense is certainly not a strength however and they will struggle again here versus the Navy option attack. Memphis is off a dominating win over an FCS school as they thrashed Stephen F Austin. However, prior to that, they allowed an average of 40 points per game their 4 preceding games - all against FBS schools. With very nice weather expected at Annapolis, MD today, both offenses will be able to thrive in this one. Memphis likes to play fast and is averaging 80 plays per game on offense this season. The Tigers make the most of those plays too as they are averaging 530 yards per game. I expect another big game from their offense here but Navy has only truly been stopped by BYU and Air Force this season. That is because BYU is having a great season and has a solid defense and because Air Force knows plenty about the option attack. As for their other 5 games, the Midshipmen scored an average of 28.6 points per game. Look for a 42-28 type game here and, no matter how it gets there, I am expecting this game to get to at least the 70 point mark. That means we have excellent line value with this one, especially as the total has dropped to 62 heading into gameday. 10* OVER the total in Navy

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #226 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 3 ET - I fully understand that Coastal Carolina is a ranked team, undefeated on the season, and that they need to not only win but win by big margins to move up the standings. However, this is a horrible spot for them in many ways. For one thing they are off a key win over an Appalachian State team that was undefeated in conference action plus entered the game with an overall 6-1 record on the season. Secondly, the Chanticleers have an 8-1 Liberty team on deck and the Flames have also been a ranked team this season. In the middle of these two games is a 2-9 Bobcats team. I just can't see Coastal Carolina being able to fully focus here and also this game is at Texas State. The weather is expected to be very rainy in San Marcos for this one. Nasty weather generally favors big dogs as it can complicate things for offenses. I still expect Coastal Carolina to win this game but not by a huge margin and this line is up to a 17.5 as of early gameday morning. Yes, the Bobcats defense is an issue but this is a team that can score well and that means they also have backdoor cover potential should it be needed. But I am not expecting it to be necessary as I look for them to hang in tough throughout this game. I also like the fact that Texas State has played a tougher overall schedule and, outside of the SBC, they faced some bigger schools like SMU, Boston College, and BYU. The Bobcats lost by only a single score to the Mustangs and Eagles! By comparison, Coastal Carolina's schedule has been a cakewalk. Texas State enters this game on a 4-0 ATS run. The Bobcats also are scoring an average of 34 points per game in home games this season. 10* TEXAS STATE

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #221 Saturday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Noon ET - While the Cowboys are off a deflating loss last week at Oklahoma plus have QB issues, the Red Raiders enter off a bye week and with good news on the QB front. Texas Tech saw Alan Bowman come back and lead the rally versus Baylor two weeks ago. The Red Raiders also still have Henry Colombi available but it is good to see that Bowman appears healthy again. As for the Cowboys, their #2 guy (Shane Illingworth) is out this week due to Covid-19 and that could be a problem. That's because Oklahoma State's #1 (Spencer Sanders) is still dealing with a head injury. That means the Cowboys could very easily end up down to their #3 QB in this game and he is a junior college transfer. It just seems like too many points for OSU to be laying as they could be a little dejected after having lost 2 of 3 games and getting blasted at Oklahoma. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, are surging with momentum after the way they defeated Baylor with no time left on the clock and they also have the extra week of rest entering this game. 8* TEXAS TECH

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Friday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - When this line opened up near a -3 on Notre Dame I fully expected the line might move to near a -7 and that is exactly what happened. It just looks too easy, right? An undefeated team that also has beaten Clemson this season and they are coming off a bye week and facing a 6-2 team with a questionable defense. Of course you know what happens when things look too easy, right? Exactly! I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here. The Tar Heels are off an embarrassing effort on defense versus Wake Forest in their most recent game. However, North Carolina still found a way to win thanks to their dynamic and balanced offense. I feel strongly that the UNC defense is going to be much better in this game as they bring their 'A game' in this rare opportunity to host one of the top teams in the nation. At Chapel Hill on Saturday, look for the Tar Heels to find a way in this one. North Carolina is averaging 43 points per game this season and has scored more than 40 in 4 straight games. More of the same expected here. The vaunted Notre Dame defense has allowed 35.5 points per game their last two games and will be heavily tested in this game. Don't be surprised if the Irish are handed their first loss of the season in this one. Even if not an outright upset, I expect the Tar Heels (only 2 losses by 3 points each this season) to stay inside the number here. 10* NORTH CAROLINA

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #123 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys versus Washington @ 4:30 ET - I had been watching this total and with the move from upper 40s to mid 40s I am now pulling the trigger on a top play with the over here.  Washington is off a low-scoring win but they were struggling to stop Cincinnati until Burrow got knocked out of that game. The Redskins only ended up scoring 20 points as the Bengals were unable to stay in the game once Burrow got hurt. Washington's offense had been surging though and that resumes here. Since Smith took over at QB the Redskins passing attack is much more dangerous. He is going to take advantage of a Dallas defense that has allowed 32 points per game this season! The Cowboys have allowed 36.8 points per game at home this season. The Dallas offense, with Dalton back under center, is also much more dangerous again and they proved that again last week with a big 31-28 win at Minnesota. The Redskins have some good overall defensive numbers this season but have allowed 28.5 points per game on the road this season. Based on all of the above and the fact that the Cowboys are out for revenge after an embarrassing loss at Washington a month ago, this game is going to have plenty of fireworks! 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Houston Texans @ 12:30 ET - Great situational spot. The Texans are off an upset win over the Patriots and the Lions are off a shutout loss at Carolina. Detroit will respond here at home and Houston, now on the road, will fall flat. Note that the Texans caught New England at the perfect time for an upset as NE had just upset the Ravens at home in a primetime game! Prior to that win the only other wins Houston has the season both came against Jacksonville. Not only are the Jaguars just 1-9 this season but one of those wins came by just 2 points. You can see why I like having the +3 with the home dog Lions in this one. Detroit should get some guys back on offense that missed Sunday's game against the Panthers. Additionally, the Texans have the Colts on deck. That is a huge division rival for Houston and they knocked them out of the playoffs the year before last season. Great situational spot for Detroit in this one and the Lions drop Houston to 3-9 ATS their last 12 games. 8* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Monday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are on a long streak of unders but this looks like the perfect spot for it to snap. Los Angeles is off a big divisional win over Seattle. The Rams also have another divisional game on deck. Could there be a little lacking in defensive intensity here for Los Angeles? At the same time, Tom Brady is fired up for a much better performance in this one. Why? Well he and his Buccaneers teammates were just recently involved in a primetime game hosting the Saints and they were thoroughly embarrassed as they scored just 3 points. It is put up or shut up time in terms of the Bucs proving they can play with the best teams in a primetime match-up and Brady and company will be raring to go here! The Rams defense is strong and so too is that of the Buccaneers but this one is about the situation. I do feel the Tampa Bay defense is susceptible here. TB has allowed an average of 28 points in its last 3 games. Also, at home this season the Bucs have allowed more than 30 points in 2 of 4 games. The over is 3-1 in the Buccaneers last 4 games and when they met the Rams at LA last season the game totaled 95 points! The Rams are averaging 428 yards per game on the road this season and scored at least 30 points in each of their first 3 road games. As for the Buccaneers, before their debacle versus the Saints, they averaged scoring 35.7 points per game in their first 3 home games. With losses in each of their last two road games, the Rams are going to come out aggressive in this one. In other words, they'll be aggressive in their play-calling and I expect plenty of points from the road side in this one as a result. But don't be surprised if Tom Brady has a big game too and this could turn into more of a back and forth shootout then many expect. We'll see some field goals too but we'll see enough touchdowns for this one to get over the total which has come down from its opener - another thing I like here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Big time revenge game for the Chiefs. Being able to get them at a -7 has me in play here. Yes I know it is a road game and laying a TD on the road can be a bit dangerous but the Chiefs had dominated in the Raiders for an extended stretch, including 3 most recent wins by an average margin of 27 points per game, before losing earlier season. That loss last month also came at home and there has been some banter about the Raiders enjoying a little extra celebration time after that game at Kansas City. The Chiefs, including head coach Andy Reid, have not forgotten. Now I know the Raiders are looking much improved this season but that upset win for Las Vegas was part of a 1-3 stretch that saw them lose the other 3 games by an average margin of 16 points per game. Since then the Raiders have played better with now 3 straight wins. But they took advantage of facing the Browns in Cleveland in a windstorm with chilly rain and sleet. Then they faced the Chargers and Broncos in back to back weeks and those teams are now a combined 5-13 SU on the season! Las Vegas goes from facing those type of division rivals to not only facing the top team in their division but also the Super Bowl Champions! Not only that but the Chiefs are angry! I just can't see this going well for the Raiders. Keep in mind that is the only loss that KC has this season. Also, they are 4-0 on the road this season and their last 3 road wins have come by an average margin of 16.7 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout. Lay it! 8* KANSAS CITY

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #462 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have been looking forward to this one. Why? They lost their most recent home game and this will be their first game since then. Indianapolis lost to a strong Ravens team in their most recent game as a host. That defeat came despite a 10-7 lead at the half and despite holding Baltimore to just 266 yards in that game. In other words, don't be fooled by the final score and that is merely serving to give us line value here. Speaking of line value, the Colts did open up at a -3 and now this line has moved so low (-1 -115) in some spots that there is even more value on the money line (-120) in my opinion. This is as of 9 AM ET on Sunday and I am pulling the trigger here on this one. The Packers are getting all the market attention but I feel the better defense prevails here. In Green Bay's only 4 games against stronger teams this season (Minnesota twice and Tampa Bay and New Orleans), the Packers allowed an average of 32.5 points per game! To put that in proper perspective, the Colts have only allowed more than 27 points once this season when they gave up 32 at Cleveland. That was also a turnover-filled loss. With the way Indy QB Philip Rivers has played last 4 games (7 TD and only 2 INT), I look for the Colts to avoid the turnover issues that had plagued them earlier this season. Rivers has averaged 292 yards passing last 4 games and only thrown 1 INT in his last 3 games. Indianapolis was firing on all cylinders in their win at Tennessee and that was a Thursday night game too so they have the rest edge over Green Bay heading into this one as well. I certainly respect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but feel strongly that the better defense prevails in this game and we don't even have to lay points (thanks to the line move) to have the home team and the better defense and this is when they also lost their most recent home game after starting the season 3-0 at home. Great situation! 10* INDIANAPOLIS

NFC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Vikings are off a hard-fought win over the Bears on Monday Night. Even though Minnesota scored only 19 points in that game they did have nearly 400 yards of offense and certainly should have scored more. I know their defense looked good in that one but the Bears have major issues on offense. Also, off of that big divisional win and on a short week, the Vikings defense will not have the same intensity for facing this Cowboys team in a down season. At the same time, Dallas will get a boost on offense with the return of Andy Dalton at QB. Look for the rejuvenated Cowboys, also coming off a bye week, to surprise many by putting up plenty of points in this one. The Vikings have allowed an average of 33.5 points per game at home this season and the over is a perfect 4-0 in their games as a host this season. Speaking of struggling defense, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 32.2 points per game this season and that includes 3 games against NFC East opponents too and everyone knows how bad the NFC East has been this season. In other words, the Dallas defense is simply atrocious and the Vikings, with Kirk Cousins playing well of late, will have a huge game here at home. This total has been kept in the upper 40s because of the Cowboys poor numbers on offense of late. With Dalton coming back, we'll take advantage of the low total as this is an ideal situation for both teams to put up plenty of points. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota 

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - In NFL in particular, more than any other sport, I like to fade trap lines. The fact is, this game looks like a trap game doesn't it? The Browns are on a 6-2 SU run and plus are 4-1 SU at home this season and yet they opened up as only a field goal favorite against an Eagles team which has won just 3 of its 9 games. The markets also remember that Philadelphia just played a horrible game at New York against the Giants last week. So, what is there to like about the Eagles here? Well they have performed well as a dog in this situation. Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS the last 12 times they have been a road dog in a non-divisional game. Also, the Eagles did open up this season on an 0-2-1 SU / 0-3 ATS run. But, since September, Philadelphia has not had back to back ATS losses. In other words, off the embarrassing performance against the Giants, don't be surprised if they respond again with a big effort when others least expect it. Again, the Browns are 4-1 SU at home on the season and the overall hotter team. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this season. The books now have this line at just a -2.5 on Cleveland in most shops. That doesn't make sense does it? Exactly! Upset alert! Grab the points! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Big 12 Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #401 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - I am well aware of the fact that each of these teams are producing some solid defensive numbers. However, I am also well aware of the fact that Oklahoma has a scary good offense and the Cowboys are ultra talented on offense that should have WR Wallace back for this one as well. Prior to struggling to score without Wallace in their most recent game, the Cowboys had averaged 33 points per game in their 4 preceding games. Yes, the Sooners are off a strong effort on defense but their 5 preceding games saw them allow 32.4 points per game. Other than games against a bad Kansas team and an FCS school, Missouri State, Oklahoma's defense has not been that impressive. As for the Cowboys defense I know they have some good numbers this season but the Sooners always seem to give them a ton of trouble and OU comes into this game on an extreme surge on offense. Oklahoma has scored 62 points in each of their last 2 games and they are averaging 46 points on the season. The Sooners are loaded with confidence right now and both teams are coming off bye weeks too. That means extra time to work in a few extra wrinkles on offense for this massive annual rivalry game. You know Oklahoma State will have a few trick plays up their sleeve as per usual. We are getting a lower total on this game this season (compared to this same match-up in recent seasons) because each team has some better numbers on defense but I just can not see OSU getting many stops in this one. I also don't see the Cowboys going down without a fight in this one. That said, the over is the way to go here as they allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games against FBS teams this season and have scored at least 30 points in all of their games. You can see why I am expecting these teams to get well into the 60s and likely even 70s in this one. The last time they met in Norman, the teams combined for 95 points! Look for another wild one here. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #396 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - This is fantastic line value on an undefeated home dog. Yes the Badgers are 2-0 but they faced a very bad Illinois team and a Michigan team that is in a world of hurt this season. Last week Wisconsin phenom QB Mertz, who absolutely is going to be a success story long-term, did start the game 1 for 5 and looked a bit "off" which is what I expected for the young QB's first road start. However, the good news for Mertz was that he was facing a Michigan team that it only takes one mistake from them to completely unravel. Indeed the Wolverines immediately turned the ball over a few times and the rest was history in yet another embarrassment for Harbaugh's team in Ann Arbor. The point is that neither the Badgers nor Mertz have really been tested by a strong defense. That changes this week. Northwestern is allowing just 14 points per game this season. Now one could argue that their schedule hasn't been overly tough either but they have won a pair of road games and have 4 games under their belt compared to the Badgers having just 2 because of covid issues this season. Also, the Wildcats did allow just 335.7 yards per game last season to rank in the top 25 defenses in the nation and so this is not a fluke what we've seen from them this season. The offense will struggle some against a very strong Wisconsin defense but to get 7.5 points here as a home dog going against a young QB still getting his feet wet on the Big Ten road is something I won't pass up. The Cats offensive attack has been balanced so far this season between the run and the pass and they have averaged 427 yards per game in their two home games. Even if they don't do enough for the outright upset here they absolutely should do enough for the all important cover. 8* NORTHWESTERN

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #333 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - What is Penn State playing for here? Pride? You think the Nittany Lions will be a proud team if they run the table and finish the season 4-4? Mind you this was a season they were suppose to possibly even challenge for the CFB championship! I know the Nittany Lions looked good after Will Levis replaced starter Sean Clifford at QB last week at Nebraska but it is not hard to look better when you come into a game your trailing 27-6 and the other team's defense (not a great one mind you) has laid back a bit at that point. Plus Levis only completed 14 of 31 passes. No matter who is at a QB here for PSU, the problems remain. This team this season looks like a poorly coached turnover machine. Not only has Penn State had 9 turnovers in their 4 games this season, they also have forced just ONE turnover in their last 3 games combined. Now they face a tough Iowa defense and the Hawkeyes have forced 8 turnovers in their last 3 games! Iowa also has revenge from losing each of the past two seasons to the Nittany Lions and that includes a home loss last season. They lost that game because of a 2-0 turnover deficit but the way this season is going that turnover battle is highly likely to go the other way in this one. With Penn State 0-4 SU and ATS this season and the Hawkeyes off back to back wins and covers by a combined score of 84-14, there is only one way to go in this game in my opinion. The Hawkeyes are allowing 14.8 points per game this season. The Nittany Lions have allowed at least 30 points in all 4 of their games. PSU has played the tougher schedule but there is not that much of a disparity to justify this line being where it is. Until Penn State proves they can win a game they are an automatic fade in my book with what I have seen on the field from these guys this season. 8* IOWA

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #344 Saturday 10* Central Florida Knights (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats have a fantastic defense and are having a great season. With an ultra-talented defense like Cincinnati has it is going to take a very special offense to do any damage against them. That said, welcome to Central Florida! Not only do the Knights play very fast on offense they also are extremely dangerous with tremendous big play capabilities. Also, UCF should have beaten the Bearcats last season but they were done in by 4 turnovers. The Knights put up 423 yards of offense but lost by 3 points and that game was at Cincinnati. The turnovers were the difference in the game. Clearly UCF has played the tougher schedule so far this season and that is why we're getting line value here too with the Knights as a home dog. Everyone sees the undefeated Bearcats on the road and having obliterated teams but this is a match-up that will give them issues for sure. Cincinnati's friendly schedule thus far includes the fact that they have been on the road only one time this season. Though the Bearcats won big at SMU in their lone road game, they actually had just 17 first downs in that game while the Mustangs had 22. Cincinnati is absolutely a very good team but they have had it quite easy so far this season with scheduling and all the breaks seeming to go their way too. That ends here on Saturday and the Knights return the favor after losing at Cincinnati last season in a game they should not have lost - UCF outgained them by 82 yards. Payback time here. The Knights are averaging an insane 619 yards of offense per game. 10* CENTRAL FLORIDA

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers Money Line (-115) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - This line (ATS) was a -3 on Purdue earlier this week but has dropped down to as low as a 1.5 as of early Friday morning and that is why I am recommending a play on the money line because that is now available in the -115 range after this line move! I understand the move as there are rumors that QB Aidan O'Connell is a game-time decision for this one. Keep in mind the Boilermakers still have former starting QB Jack Plummer available and O'Connell barely beat him out for the starting job heading into this season. Also, O'Connell is coming off a rough game with some poor decision-making and did not have great touch on some of his throws. In other words a QB change here wouldn't even be the worst thing in the world. Teams can run all over the Golden Gophers so they don't throw much against them as a general rule but that doesn't mean their pass defense is great. In fact, Minnesota is next to last in the Big Ten in yards allowed per completion at 8.8 yards and also rank in the bottom half of the Big Ten for pass defense efficiency. As for the rush defense, it is horrible. Yes Purdue doesn't tend to run a lot but don't be surprised if you see a little extra from 6'5 230 lb Zander Horvath. He struggled against Northwestern last week but also gained 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 ypc) against a very tough Iowa defense a few weeks prior to that. Purdue is averaging 307 yards per game through the air and will enjoy success both on the ground and with the aerial attack against a very bad Minnesota defense which, other than when facing a team with a 4th string QB (Illinois), has allowed 43 points per game this season! The Boilermakers are allowing just 23.7 points per game this season. The Golden Gophers are scoring an average of only 15.5 points per game at home this season. Minnesota just lost by 28 to the same Iowa team which Purdue defeated last month. This is also a revenge game for the Boilermakers as they lost at home to the Golden Gophers last season and got blasted in their last visit to Minnesota. Also, while the Boilers have "only" Rutgers on deck, the Gophers have a revenge game against rival Wisconsin up next. Last season, the Badgers beat Minny in the regular season finale which cost the Golden Gophers a spot in a chance in the Big Ten Championship Game and ultimately a potential shot at a Rose Bowl berth. Both teams enter this game off a loss here but you can see why I feel the road team is not only the better team but also will be the more focused team in this match-up. 10* PURDUE money line -115

Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #321 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals @ 8:20 ET - This total is a big one but don't let that scare you. The weather forecast is typical for Seattle this time of year. Chilly, but not too cold. Rainy, but rather light. The good news is no significant winds expected Thursday evening. In other words, both offenses should be able to have the playbooks fully open for this one. The Cardinals last 3 games have all totaled more than 60 points. Not only that, the Cards have allowed at least 30 in all 3 games plus scored at least 30 in all 3 games! As for the Seahawks, they are off a rare low-scoring loss but that was at LA against a tough Rams defense. Now they are back home and Seattle had scored 27 or more in all of their first 8 games and they reached 31 points or more in all but one of those. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 30.4 points per game. With the Cards surging with momentum after their dramatic last-second win on a Hail Mary pass last week, the offense feels it could do no wrong. But don't be surprised if the Arizona defense continues to struggle here as winning has a way of masking the problems and then teams think things are okay but really this Cards D has issues. The Seahawks will be looking to exploit those again in this revenge game as they did lose at Arizona in their meeting less than month ago. The Cardinals also beat the Seahawks in their last visit to the pacific northwest. That said, you know Russell Wilson and company are out for big-time revenge here but their defense has been a major weakness all season. That is why I expect a ton of points in this one. The over is 3-1 in Seahawks home games this season and the Cardinals recent over trend (3-0) is destined to continue here as well. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #425 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave @ 7:30 ET - Tulsa is in a flat spot here. They are off a big win over SMU and have another huge game on deck at Houston. Also, the Golden Hurricane are now a ranked team for the first time in ten years! As a result of being flat for this one don't be surprised if a surging Tulane team does plenty of damage on offense in this one against a Tulsa defense that could be "going through the motions" a bit. On the flip side though, I just can not trust this Green Wave defense. I know that they have appeared strong in the last 3 games but those were against struggling offenses. In the 3 games that preceded those 3 Tulane allowed an average of 49 points per game. The good news for Green Wave fans is their offense is averaging 40 points per game the last 7 games! Tulsa will struggle to slow down a confident Tulane group but, at the same time, the Golden Hurricane passing attack is strong and the Green Wave are not good against the pass. It is forecast to be a windy afternoon in Tulsa but the winds are supposed to start laying down some by kickoff this one. There will still be some breeze but it should be more in the range that does not cause a problem in terms of the passing attack. The Golden Hurricane have allowed an average of 27 points in their home games and, in this flat spot, their defense could prove even more susceptible against what has become a very balanced Tulane offense this season! Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Tulsa's last 4 games and 7-2 in the last 9 games for the Green Wave. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #311 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7 ET - Toledo has dominated this series in recent years in terms of SU wins. However, Eastern Michigan has actually covered 4 straight games in this series. The last 3 meetings have all been decided by 5 or less points. Given the above, this line might seem too high. But this is where I use history like that to my advantage because it is helping to keep this line lower than it should be actually. Toledo is the much better team on both sides of the ball and the Rockets very motivated after an unreal loss at Western Michigan last week. In that game the Broncos scored 13 points in the final 45 seconds to miraculously win the game. The Rockets looked like the better team for nearly the entirety of that game. Toledo is averaging 512.5 yards per game and allowing only 352 yards per game. The Eagles are averaging just 389.5 yards per game and allowing a whopping 483.5 yards per game. The last time these teams met here in Ypsilanti, MI the Rockets fell behind 28-3 at the half in the 28-26 loss. That rally fell short but Toledo has been reminded of that game coming into this one. It is the only loss the Rockets have in the last 13 meetings with Eastern Michigan! It is payback time on Wednesday. 10* TOLEDO

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #304 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the 2018 MAC Championship Game. What does that have to do with this play? Bear with me for a minute here. The Bulls began this season with a revenge win over the Huskies two weeks ago. Then last week Buffalo beat Miami (Ohio) and on deck after this game is Kent State and then Ohio University. What do the Redhawks, Golden Flashes, and Bobcats have in common? They were the teams that handed the Bulls their only 3 MAC losses last season. The point is that of the Bulls first 5 games in this compacted MAC season, 4 of them are revenge games. The only one that isn't is this game against a Falcons team they have pummeled by an average margin of 36 points per game in the last two meetings. That said, this line is about where I would expect it to be considering the Bulls won by 30 in their last visit here. However, given the circumstances, this point spread is likely to prove to be too much. Buffalo wins big here but not big enough! Bowling Green is off back to back embarrassing losses to start the season. But the fact the Falcons are at home and off an absolute stinker in their home opener for this season means you can expect a big response from Bowling Green here. This is a flat spot for the Bulls whereas the Falcons are off a beating by a 38 point margin at Perry Stadium. In other words, embarrassment in your own house. They'll still struggle here because the Bulls are certainly the much better team. But I could see Buffalo "going through the motions" in this one while I have no doubt the Falcons "come to play" after the way their season has started. 10* BOWLING GREEN

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 - I'll gladly fade the line move here and go with the home dog in Monday night action in a big divisional match-up. The Vikings are on a bit of a surge now including a recent win over the Packers. However, Minnesota was actually outgained by 76 yards in that game plus they caught Green Bay off back to back road games. It was a bit of a tough spot for the Pack. Still let's give credit where credit is due but that was just one win for Minnesota and they actually lost the stats battle in that game. In terms of the other wins this season, they have come against teams with a combined record of 6-12 SU on the season. Now the Vikings are on the road facing a Bears team that has beaten them 4 straight times. Not only that, Chicago is off a game in which they outgained the Titans by 147 yards but lost on the scoreboard. Keep in mind that game was at Tennessee and they are 6-3 on the season. In terms of other tough match-ups this season the Bears did beat the Buccaneers (now 7-3 on the season) and lost to the Saints (7-2 on the season) on a field goal in OT. The point is that there is solid line value here with a Bears team that has proven it can play with tough teams and this is especially true when they are now catching as much as 3.5 points as a home dog in a divisional match-up against a team whose number they have had. The Vikings have been really hot ATS but the Bears are off an ATS loss and have gone 3-0 ATS this season when in that situation. I also like the Chicago defense (335.1 ypg) much more than the Vikings defense (412.9 ypg) this season. Will be chilly and potentially breezy too in the Windy City tonight and that adds even more value to the defensive-minded home dog in this one. The Vikings running attack has been great this season but the Bears are allowing an average of just 18.5 points per game in regulation time of their home games this season. Also, the Bears just faced a tough running team at Tennessee and they held the Titans to just 92 yards on the ground and only 3 yards per carry. Give me the home dog in this one. 10* CHICAGO

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - We are betting here on the weather too but that should be a key factor. Wind and rain is expected to move into Foxboro just in time for kickoff of this one. Even if we don't get that key factor which helps unders there are a couple of other key factors I like as well. One is the line move as this line has risen from near 40 up to the mid-40s. Another is the game-planning. I know full well that the Ravens solid defense would love nothing more than to march into Foxboro and completely shutdown Bill Belichick's offense which certainly has been having some issues this season. Keep in mind the Ravens are allowing just 17.8 points per game and that ranks #1 in the NFL this season. The Patriots did score big against the Raiders here but in their other 3 home games this season New England has averaged just 13 points per game. The Pats are a smart team of course though and Belichick knows the key to hanging around in this game is limiting the potent Baltimore offense. In last season's match-up the Ravens scored 37 points and Belichick knows that can not happen again. He will try to chew up a lot of clock when his offense is on the field and now lets talk about the Patriots defense. The Pats have given up too much their last few games in terms of points and that included a rough home game versus the 49ers. After getting embarrassed at home in their most recent game here, you know the defense wants to make up for it. In their preceding 3 home games the Patriots allowed an average of only 16.3 points per game. Considering the above as well as the weather conditions I am expecting a bit of a grinder tonight at Gillette Stadium. 10* UNDER the total in New England 

AFC West Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - The Broncos are off a loss at Atlanta but that was a horrible spot for them. They were off miraculous last 2nd home win over the Chargers. That left them flat for the game with the Falcons and especially because it was a divisional sandwich. Yes, after facing the Chargers it was another division rival (Raiders) on deck following the trip to Atlanta. Sure enough Denver fell flat but now they respond here. I feel Las Vegas is a little over-rated right now. The Raiders are such a bad team defensively but caught a break with facing the Chargers last week as Los Angeles still couldn't get over the unreal loss at Denver the prior week. Additionally, the Raiders other recent win was at Cleveland where their defense was helped by playing the game in horrible weather conditions that limited both offenses. Prior to these two wins, Las Vegas had lost 3 of 4 and I feel strongly that they are fortunate to be 5-3 on the season. As for the Broncos, they had won 3 of 4 prior to last week's loss and they are definitely the better defense in this match-up and are flying under the radar a bit right now because they started the season 0-3 whereas the Raiders started the season 2-0. Public perception heavily favors the Raiders in this one and yet the line has moved toward the Broncos in this one. That is sharp money in my opinion and will include some of mine too on Sunday. I am aware of the recent home dominance trend in this series but the Raiders have allowed 33 points per game in their new home and lost plus failed to cover each of their last two games in Vegas. The Broncos were 3-0 ATS on the road this season before last week's loss and again that was a huge flat spot for them. They will not be flat here. 10* DENVER

Early Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #259 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles are off their bye week and healthier than they have been in quite some time. When these teams met in Philly 3 weeks ago the line was very nearly identical to the line on today's game which is a road game for Philadelphia. That would make it seem like there is some kind of mistake here. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about mistakes by the oddsmakers particularly in the NFL. The fact is I have a ton of respect for the oddsmakers and this is no mistake line here. The Eagles are in a great situation here coming off their bye week while the Giants are playing for the 3rd time in 14 days because they also had a Monday night game prior to last week's game which was a hard-fought road win over the Redskins. I do respect the Giants defense but this is also a team that was 1-7 SU on the season prior to last week's win and they finally have their bye next week. Look for it to be a week too late for the Giants as the Eagles pull away for a road rout in this one and defeat the Giants for the 8th straight time in the last 8 meetings. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #233 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UCLA Bruins vs California Golden Bears @ Noon ET - This one follows the similar analytics we used with yesterday's totals play which was the Colorado over. California is known for defense and their last dozen games at UCLA have resulted in 8 unders. That's a 67% win rate for unders long-term but that was then and this is now. The Bruins play extremely fast and their game at Colorado last week totaled 90 points! The Golden Bears personnel losses were significant on the defensive side of the ball as they lost 3 guys to the NFL. That is some big-time talent to have departed the defense. On offense, California returns nearly everyone and they surged late last season and looked stronger on offense in their last 5 games (including bowl game) to wrap up the season. Now they also have a new offensive coordinator on board this season and Bill Musgrave has been an offensive coordinator in the NFL and had some great turnaround success in some of his stops. You know he'll be itching to put on a good show right out of the gate and here he has the perfect set-up. He is going against one of the worst defenses in the nation and plus the Bruins offense plays so fast that the Golden Bears offense will get plenty of opportunities on the field. The fact this is a game that was oddly scheduled actually helps the offenses in my opinion. UCLA had their defense preparing to face Utah while the Bears had been preparing to face Arizona State. Then, due to covid issues those games were cancelled for Saturday and now these teams face off early Sunday in an oddly scheduled game. Don't let the early start time concern you either though. Last Saturday USC kicked off the Pac-12 season with a  9 AM Pacific time start versus Arizona State and the game had 31 points in the first half. These teams both will enjoy plenty of success early, often, and throughout this game. Beautiful weather expected for this one too. 10* OVER the total in UCLA

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7:30 ET - The contrarian theme continues. Everyone loves the Badgers this week. I used them for a big play in their opening game win over Illinois (an easy win) so I know plenty about how good this Wisconsin team can be. However, I also know that the Illini are a very bad football team, the Badgers have been dealing with covid-19 issues and haven't played in a game in 3 weeks, and that the Wolverines are a much better team than they've shown so far this season. They did lose last week at Indiana but had 344 passing yards but were done in by a pair of a interceptions. The Hoosiers are now 3-0 on the season and also beat a talented (though struggling) Penn State team. In other words the "atrocities" of losing to Indiana and Michigan State (almost always a tough rivalry game) may be getting a bit overplayed with regards to this Michigan team. The Wolverines did outgain the Spartans in the lost and, again, it is a huge rivalry game in which Michigan State almost always seems to step up their game to their highest level no matter how much more talented Michigan is than they are. I know the Badgers Graham Mertz is a very talented QB and comes highly regarded (and deserves it) but if you think after 3 weeks off and valuable practice time lost due to covid-19, that he will go to Michigan and do the same thing he did against Illinois at home in Madison, you don't know football. The Wolverines are well aware of being disrespected heading into this game and they have heard all about the talented phenom Mertz and this defense will have its ears pinned back for this one. Don't forget too that Wisconsin really didn't run the ball that well against Illinois either. That is not a good sign for this game. If the Badgers can't establish the run against the Big Blue defense a ton of pressure will be on Mertz to win this game. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines have the talent to move the ball down the field and are averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game! The Badgers go from facing a very weak Illini offense to facing a team that, when it comes to play, is quite talented on offense. I fully expect an "A game" effort from Michigan in their own house here as they lost their only other game here this season plus have revenge from losing by 21 in Madison last year. When considering that plus the huge line move toward Wisconsin here, we have line value that is absolutely "off the charts" for this one. 10* MICHIGAN

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Stanford Cardinal vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - This series has a history of low-scoring games with 5 of 6 games staying under the total. Last season's game totaled only 29 points. That said, give me the over! Indeed, history is oftentimes just that...history! These are different teams than they were in past seasons of course. The Cardinal use to be known as a defensive-minded team that likes to run the ball on offense and control the clock. This is no longer the way football is played at Stanford and last season their passing attack was much better than the ground game and I expect more of the same this season. Also, the Cardinal pass defense was very poor last season and so too was the Buffaloes. That said, I am expecting plenty of points here as Colorado is off a crazy 48-42 win over UCLA which was played at a very fast pace. Even though Stanford's game against Oregon stayed under the total, they had 413 yards of offense (even without their starting QB Davis Mills) and that was against a respectable Oregon team. Also, the Cardinal allowed the Ducks nearly 500 yards. The Buffaloes game against the Bruins totaled over 1000 yards of offense. We get a low total to work with here thanks to the long-term history of the Cardinal as well as the low-scoring trend in this series. That was then and this is now and also very nice weather expected for this game as well. That said, all signs point to a game that gets well into the 60s here and might even get into the 70s. Tremendous value as neither team will be able to stop the other. 10* OVER the total in Stanford

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #141 Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs (+) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ Noon ET - It looks easy, right? Just take the home team with the better record and the better defensive numbers laying only a field goal? In typical contrarian fashion, I am on other side here. Give me the dog no one will want. Why? For one thing, the Horned Frogs have played the tougher schedule. The Mountaineers opened up their season with Eastern Kentucky. Also, West Virginia's last two games of this season are against Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Those are a pair of tough 5-2 teams which the Horned Frogs have already had to face. Lets talk then about teams that each team already has faced. The Mountaineers have lost two of their last three games and those defeats came at the hands of Texas and Texas Tech. TCU beat both of those teams and that included beating the Red Raiders by 16 and beating the Longhorns in Austin! In fact, the Horned Frogs are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this season in road games and I fully expect those trends to continue here as the strength of schedule factor is a big one favoring the road dog in this one. It is also a revenge game as West Virginia beat them in Fort Worth last season (despite TCU winning the yardage battle) and the Horned Frogs were a 14 point favorite in that one. Payback today! 8* TCU 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Friday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7:30 ET - This is a potential flat spot for the Bearcats. Of course I expect Cincinnati to win this game and, perhaps, even handily. But winning a game handily or comfortably doesn't mean covering a 4-TD spread. I expect about a two TD margin here which means we have a lot of cushion to work with. Cincinnati is off 3 straight big games against tougher opponents plus has a tough game on deck at Central Florida. A game against the fast-paced Knights, and a game that is at UCF no less, is the one that could trip up the undefeated Bearcats. That said, there is no doubt that upcoming game is on the minds of Cincinnati at least to an extent and it doesn't take much to throw a team off that has to be firing on all cylinders to cover this enormous spread. Keep in mind, the game between these teams last season was decided by just 3 points. Also, in the Bearcats 4 home games against FBS schools this season they have averaged 34.8 points per game. The Pirates are averaging 29.2 points per game this season and have not been held below 21 points in any of their 6 games. Now, of course, I am well aware that the Bearcats defense is much better than the East Carolina defense but the point is that the Pirates offense is a pretty solid unit and if Cincy just loses a little focus for this game it will be closer than many are expecting. If the Bearcats do eventually pull away it will hard to pull away by a lot and the Pirates talented offense means they have a great shot at backdoor cover - should one even be needed! In an otherwise disappointing campaign, this is a chance for East Carolina to make some noise on center stage on a Friday Night game on ESPN. The Pirates are certainly well aware that they are 1-5 and Cincinnati is 6-0 on the season and ranked in the top ten in the nation so look for an "A game" effort from the big dog in this one! 10* EAST CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Historically I like playing against line moves and have had particular success when a line flips. What I mean by that is when you have a team that was the favorite earlier on actually become the dog as the week goes on. That is the case here with the Titans having been favored by nearly a full field goal earlier this week and yet now on game day morning they are a +1 in some spots. I'll take it! I do respect the Colts and their tough defense but Rivers and Company have struggled against tougher teams this season. Rivers has some very strong positive numbers against bad teams but against the Ravens, Bears, Browns (the only teams currently with a winning record which he has faced) he has put up a total of only 1 TD while also throwing 3 INTs. Note that the Colts are only 2-2 SU on the road this season and they entered this season 7-17 SU on the road the 3 prior seasons combined. Both teams are on a short week of course with this being a Thursday game. However, it is a little more manageable for the Titans because this is the 2nd of back to back home games for them. For the Colts, they are on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and plus they just played a physical Ravens team. This season, teams are 2-5 ATS the week after playing Baltimore and, again, in this case it is a short week too which makes it even tougher for the Colts. I know the box score was an ugly one for Tennessee last week and they were fortunate to beat the Bears but I am sure they were peeking ahead to this huge division rivalry game a bit too. Keep in mind Indy has dominated this series long-term and that includes winning the last two games here by a combined score of 52-34. The Titans are poised to say "enough is enough" and I look for Ryan Tannehill (19-3 TD-INT ratio) to bounce back after a 10 for 21 performance last week. Tennessee simply wasn't good last week but they still improve to 4-1 SU at home on the season and are now 25-12 in home games since the start of the 2016 season. Titans finally get it done against the Colts at home as Tannehill outplays Rivers as the main story line in this one. 10* TENNESSEE

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #123 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET - Fortunately, if you like offense, this game is being played Thursday and not Friday. There is a weather system moving into the Pacific Northwest with wind and snow and rain but that is not getting into the Boise area until Friday. That said, Thursday night's weather looks great. No precipitation and winds near 10 mph and chilly (but very normal) temperatures for this one at Albertsons Stadium. As long-time followers know I love fading prevailing opinion and this is such a beautiful example of that which hopefully will cash nicely for us. The Broncos were without running back George Holani last week and he is doubtful again this week so everyone expects Boise State to struggle again running the ball. No, no, no! The key to any running game is how well guys can block up front to open up holes for the running game or to consistently get strong forward push so the backs (ANY back!) can gain positive yardage. The problem last week was NOT Holani being out, it was that the Broncos faced a BYU defense that has been incredible this season. In fact the Cougars have been fantastic on both sides of the ball this season and Boise State simply ran into a buzz-saw last week. I am also aware of the Boise State QB situation but they have plenty of capable arms no matter who is under center for this game and this is particularly true because they are at home and facing a very questionable Rams pass defense. One thing Colorado State does have going for them is a solid offense and the Broncos defense certainly has not looked as strong this season as they have allowed at least 30 points now in back to back games. The last time these teams met in Boise the game totaled 84 points. This one may not get that high but truly 70s would not be a surprise to me and I feel very confident this one gets into the 60s. The Broncos are angry off a loss and so their offense is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one. Last year's match-up at Colorado State had 38 points at the half but still finished under the total due to a low-scoring 2nd half. That is merely serving to give us extra line value here and note that the over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in Idaho. That trend continues here. 10* OVER the total in Boise State

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #120 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos vs Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - When it is early in the season it helps once you've see a team twice to know a little bit more. I know what you're thinking. This teams have only played once so what I am talking about? Let me explain. Toledo destroyed Bowling Green last week but then I watched the Falcons get destroyed again last night by a Kent State team that, no disrespect intended, shouldn't be beating anyone else in the MAC by a 38 point margin especially when on the  road. So the point is don't put too much stock into the Rockets destroying the Falcons last week. As for the Broncos, they destroyed the Zips last week and that game was at Akron. Then what did we see from Akron last night, a determined effort at Ohio University where they were a 4 TD underdog and didn't even give up 28 points on the night in the 24-10 hard-fought loss. The point is that, even though it is early in the season, the Broncos might be stronger than most anticipated. These teams were projected to finish 1-2 in the West Division of the MAC. With the fact that the Rockets have dominated this series recently but the Broncos at home for this one and revenge-seeking and perhaps even stronger than many anticipated entering this season, I am going big on Western Michigan here. The Broncos are a very strong along the offensive line and also their defense looks deeper this season. The offense will attack a Toledo secondary that is a bit of a question mark entering this season. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #112 Tuesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 8 ET - The Bulls are off a revenging win at Northern Illinois last week. The Huskies had beaten them in the MAC Championship Game year before last. Now Buffalo has another revenge game this week. Last season one of their few MAC losses was at Miami-Ohio. The Bulls lost that game because of 4 turnovers and 10 penalties for over 100 yards! Buffalo outgained the Redhawks by 164 yards on the ground and I expect that to be a theme again in this year's rematch. The Bulls catch Miami-Ohio off a hard-fought home win over Ball State. They lost QB Brett Gabbert in that one and I would be very surprised if he plays this week. Although AJ Mayer was solid in taking his place that game was at home against a weak Cardinals defense. He will face a much tougher defense this week plus he is on the road. Even though the stats weren't so great for the Bulls last week I do like the fact they averaged 5.4 ypc on the ground while Miami-Ohio averaged only 3.2 ypc on the ground against a generally sub-par Cards defense. If Mayer gets the start here it will be the first start of his career and it comes on the road and it comes against the best team in the MAC East and it comes with the Bulls in revenge mode and playing their home opener. I am not a big fan of laying big points but this one meets all the requirements I look for when doing so. Also, note that the Bulls have covered 8 in a row as a MAC home favorite. That streak continues here. 10* BUFFALO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. That said, with the Patriots having averaged scoring only 12 points per game their last 4 games and the Jets having scored an average of only 7 points per game their last 4 games, there was only one way I am looking in this game and that is the over. But why? Of course there has to be good reasoning and in this case there is sure is. For one thing we are getting incredible line value with such a low total posted on this game. But in terms of how it will play out Cam Newton was better last week for the Patriots and I expect him to have a strong game here against a Jets defense that has allowed an average of 30 points per game this season. Also, New York's offense might surprise some people tonight. I am expecting both Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder back for the Jets tonight. That is a couple of key talents back at WR for New York tonight and that gives the New York QB some talented targets in the passing game. Now I know what you're saying. Sam Darnold is likely out for this game. No offense to him but he has not been healthy and hasn't looked right. The Jets offense will be in much better hands tonight with the veteran Joe Flacco back there and he'll be attacking a Patriots defense which has allowed an average of 28 points in 3 road games this season. Based on the spread on this game as well as the total the betting markets are calling for a 26-16 type NE win. I am telling you I expect both teams to exceed those respective point totals and that is why I am going big on the over in this game. Yes it is a contrarian play per se but being contrarian (especially in the NFL) is how I have lasted successfully in this industry for two decades. You have to pick your spots to be a contrarian but this is one of those spots and, almost forgot to mention this but, the weather is certainly going to be spectacular this evening in East Rutherford, NJ for this one. Light winds, no precipitation, and very mild temperatures. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - the saints have won 4 straight games, i fully realize this is a revenge game for tampa bay but the buccaneers last 4 games have featured a loss and a 2-point win, there is great value with having the points on your side in this match-up, the bucs defense grabs all the headlines but the saints defense is better than you think, take a look at the yardage stats rather than just point totals to get the full read on a defense, in this case the buccaneers are allowing 299.5 yards per game while the saints are allowing 328.4 yards per game, as you can see this is only a small variance, i also like the fact that new orleans should have wr michael thomas back for this game, overall the saints are getting healthier than they have been and that is another reason i expect them to improve to 5-0 su/ats L5 meetings with TB, new orleans is 7-1 ats the last 8 times they have been a dog and in this match-up they are catching as much as 4.5 points as of early gameday morning, the bucs are off a monday night game and that was their 2nd straight road game and this game will be their 9th straight this season without a bye, new orleans a little fresher courtesy of a bye week just a couple weeks ago, the saints are a 1/2 game back in the standings and this is their chance to leap frog tampa bay for 1st place in the division, look for them to make the most of the opportunity, if they do fall short i expect it to be by 4 or less points, grab the dog, 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:25 ET - the dolphins are over-rated in my opinion and we're catching them at the perfect time to fade them, miami is coming off a big over the rams even though they were outgained by 326 yards and had 23 less first downs, of course this is leading to line value this week because it is also noteworthy that tagovailoa will be making his first road start, arizona has a big edge here with coming off their bye week and that was preceded by 3 straight wins both SU and ATS, if the dolphins were having a poor season the cardinals might overlook them, the fact that miami has a winning record and just beat the LA rams makes sure of the fact that the cardinals will have proper focus here, also another AFC team is on deck for arizona so there is no lookahead here, the dolphins are on a 5-10 ats run as a road dog in a non-divisional game while the cardinals are 4-1 ats their last 5 games against afc competition, statistically the cards have one of the best offenses in the league while the dolphins have one of the worst and i just don't see miami being able to keep up in this one as the cardinals get after tagovailoa early and often and disrupt the dolphins entire game plan  10* ARIZONA

NFC North Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions @ 1:00 ET - This total plummeted because of Matthew Stafford, Lions QB, having been exposed to someone with covid on Monday. However, he is cleared to play as long as his final test this morning comes out okay and even if he didn't I would not be surprised to see back-up quarterback Chase Daniel enjoy success against this struggling Vikings defense! Minnesota has allowed 38 points per game in its 3 home games this season. The good news for Vikings fans is the Lions defense is also very bad and Minnesota had their run game going against Green Bay last week and, of course, once the run is established that makes the passing game even that much easier to get going! Detroit has allowed 29.4 points per game this season. Minnesota has scored 27.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Lions are averaging 25.3 points per game on the season. Look for the over to remain perfect in Vikings home games this season - it is already 3-0 on the year and all 3 flew over by a double digit margin! Also, I am aware of Kenny Golladay being out for this game but the Lions have plenty of other weapons on offense and this is particularly true with the current bad shape that the Vikings defense is in. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota 

Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #353 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Buffaloes vs UCLA Bruins @ 7:00 PM ET - I know these teams have not played yet this season as this is the opening weekend for the PAC-12 but the over is in a great spot here. UCLA will feel like they are playing at home today. Why? Well the forecast is high temperatures near 70 with sunny skies and light winds for this one. In a couple days it will be snowing in Boulder Colorado and, undoubtedly, the long-term under trend between these teams has been impacted by weather a few times. These are the types of situations you want to take advantage of because this total was already posted a little on the low side and then moved even lower because the markets just aren't seeing this one properly and are basing it too much on long-term history that, quite frankly, has no bearing on the outcome of this game. The fact is that UCLA was one of the fastest paced offenses in the nation last year. The Bruins want to play quickly. Another factor here is that these were two of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year! The Buffaloes are breaking in a new QB but what better situation than this? At home, ideal weather conditions, and facing a bad defense. The set up is perfect for Colorado to put up plenty of points in this one but UCLA matches them score for score. With this total dropping to the key number of 56 it is now 'go time' with this one. One final note is that we have seen a lot of missed assignment errors by defenses in their first games of the season this year as each conference has gotten underway and I expect more of the same in the PAC-12 today and that will help lead to some big plays for the offenses! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

AAC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - I am aware that Houston has some injury issues here but I have had my eyes on this match-up all along and will not hold back here as this play gets my highest rating. Cincinnati is a very strong football team but they are over-valued here. Yes they are 5-0 on the season but 2 of those wins weren't even a challenge as they faced Austin Peay as well as a very bad USF team. In their other 3 games, though the Bearcats dominated the scoreboard, they actually had LESS first downs than their opponent in 2 of those 3 games. Now, even with that said, Cincinnati is absolutely the better team in comparison with the Cougars. However, being favored by nearly 2 touchdowns here will prove to be far too much. I don't expect the Bearcats to go undefeated this season and an upset here would not surprise me. But at the very least I do expect Houston to stay within one score of the Bearcats throughout this game. Yes, the Cougars got throttled by UCF last week but that is one of the scariest offenses to face in college football. The Knights are an absolute machine on offense. As for their other loss it came against BYU and we saw again last night (throttled Broncos AT Boise State!) that this Brigham Young team is a beast this season. In other words, I think the Cougars defense is much improved over last season but they haven't had a chance to fully show that yet based on facing a much tougher schedule than the Bearcats have. As for offense, that has never really been a question mark for the Cougars and they'll have some special plays in the playbook for this one to give Cincy some troubles on defense. I fully believe the Bearcats are challenged in this one and, after winning your first 5 games by an average margin of 27.6 points, suddenly finding yourself in a tight dog-fight can change the mentality of a team real quick. Cincinnati might end up 'pressing' a bit on offense in this one as a result and the Cougars, on the other hand, come into this game very relaxed knowing that no one is giving them a chance in this game. That sets up for a very dangerous underdog and I love having the scrappy dog on my side for this game. 10* HOUSTON

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #350 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ Noon ET - I was waiting to see what this line did and things have worked out perfectly. As a result of the suspension of Iowa wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette this line has dropped even though this is a fantastic situation for the angry Hawkeyes. First off, after throwing 3 picks last week how much do you think the Hawkeyes are going to be firing the ball downfield trying to get huge gains in this one? The fact is that Iowa is going to win this game with their defense and also with pounding away with their ground game and a very short passing game. The point is that the Hawkeyes can still win this game handily even without Ihmir Smith-Marsette so his absence has merely given us even more value with this line dropping instead of possibly going the other way and going above a TD. Keep in mind that Michigan State is a rather inexperienced team and they are off a huge win over rival Michigan and now playing a 2nd straight road game. Additionally, the Spartans are facing an Iowa team that has started a season 0-2 for the first time in 20 years. Yes Michigan State looked great in upsetting the Wolverines but lets not forget their other game was a turnover-filled debacle which resulted in a 38-27 loss to Rutgers! The Spartans are 3-9 ATS the last two years when they are off a SU win. Also, Michigan State has failed to cover 11 of their last 14 in Big Ten games. Iowa should improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 games in this series as they bounce back from two tight losses to start the season. Blowing a 17-0 lead in last week's turnover-fueled home loss also means the Hawkeyes defense comes into this fired up and with their ears pinned back. They have heard plenty about QB Lombardi and his big game last week and they're highly motivated to shut him down. The Spartans haven't been able to get much going on the ground early this season and that puts an awful lot of pressure on Lombardi to try and beat a tough Hawkeyes defense through the air. I just don't see that happening and the home team pulls away to win this one by double digits. 8* IOWA

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #309 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in NC State Wolfpack vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET - The Wolfpack are off a bye week which followed getting embarrassed by their in-state rivals. After losing to the Tar Heels I am sure that NC State will respond here but their defense is not very good at all. The Wolfpack will have to score a bunch of points to hang in this game and I like my chances in that regard but I always see Miami scoring a ton too. Before their ugly loss to North Carolina, the Wolfpack averaged scoring 33.6 points per game in their first 5 games this season. The Hurricanes are off a low-scoring win over Virginia which was followed by a bye week. However, prior to that tight win, the only time the Miami offense really struggled was against one of the best teams (Clemson) in the nation. In their other 4 games this season, the Canes averaged 40.3 points per game and they should enjoy a huge game against the porous Wolfpack defense. NC State is allowing 34.2 points and 447.5 yards per game this season. This one will turn into a back and forth shootout in ideal weather conditions in Raleigh Friday evening. 10* OVER the total in NC State

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know the 49ers have injury issues at QB and TE. Also, I am well aware this is a revenge game for the Packers since they lost the NFC Championship here last season. However, this line is getting out of hand. Everyone has been pounding Green Bay and the line is now a 6. When you factor in home field that line is basically saying that the Packers are 9 points better than the 49ers on a neutral field. I strongly disagree. Yes, San Francisco has some injury issues but QB Nick Mullens has gained some valuable experience under center and he wants to make up for his rough effort in primetime when he faced the Eagles not too long ago in a primetime match-up. I also like the fact that the home dog Niners knocked off the Rams in a convincing win as an underdog host just a few weeks ago. San Francisco is a scrappy team and they were 4-3 before the loss at Seattle last week and 2 of those 3 losses were by 5 or less points. Taking a look at Green Bay, they are 5-2 SU on the season but 4 of their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-22 SU on the season. I am not totally sold on this Packers team just yet. Remember that they got embarrassed by the Buccaneers this season plus are coming off a loss to the Vikings where they couldn't stop their running back. This was similar to last year's NFC Championship game in which Green Bay couldn't stop Mostert. All the talk in this game is about Garoppolo and Kittle being out for the Niners offense but their defense is better than people realize and I am not totally sold on this Packers team. Look for the 49ers to keep this game very close and possibly even spring the upset as I am expecting Mullens to have a solid game. He has a lot of confidence after playing well when he came in at Seattle Sunday. 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #307 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nevada Wolf Pack vs Utah State Aggies @ 7 ET - Perfect weather for this game. Colder weather is finally moving into Reno starting Friday and even will make its way down to Vegas where I live by Saturday. However, Thursday is beautiful weather with sunny skies mild temperatures and light winds for this one. The high temperature forecast for Thursday is an unseasonably warm 75 degrees in Reno. Both teams will be able to take advantage of the phenomenal weather conditions. I know the Aggies numbers on offense look putrid this season but Utah State was done in by facing a pair of tough defenses in the form of Boise State and San Diego State. Nevada is not nearly on that level. The Wolf Pack enter this game off a big win over the struggling division rival. I know UNLV did not score well but that team is in a transition with a new coach and struggling. As for Nevada's other game they did allow 34 points (only 3 were in OT) against a Wyoming team not generally known for explosive production on offense. That said, and catching the Wolf Pack off a win over their instate rival, don't be surprised if Utah State puts up plenty of points here. The issue for the Aggies in this one is their defense is allowing 40 points and 510 yards per game and the Nevada offense is averaging nearly 500 yards plus has scored 37 points (only 6 in OT) in each of its first two games. Utah State will not be able to stop the Wolf Pack here and they have a dynamic passing attack so the Aggies go from facing a run-heavy San Diego State team to a great passing offense and this is a tough transition for the defense. 10* OVER the total in Nevada 

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #296 Wednesday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Chippewas did lose some talent from last year's team but this is still a Central Michigan team that went to the MAC Championship Game last season. Also, after losing that game plus losing their bowl came, the Chips couldn't wait to get back on the field. This team is hungry to bounce back from those two season-ending defeats and is ready to prove they can win even without the services of QB Dormady and RB Ward. Ohio also lost their starting QB and he, Rourke, was a huge for this team. They do now have Rourke's younger brother and also UNLV transfer Rogers but either guy is likely to struggle early on. I like the Chippewas handling of the QB replacement situation much better and, keep in mind, this is a Central Michigan team that went a perfect 6-0 SU at home last season and they were blowout wins too! As for the Bobcats, they are getting a little too much respect from the betting markets here in my opinion. I know Solich is a veteran coach but Chippewas coach Jim McElwain has been a head coach at Colorado State and Florida! He has experience in bigger conferences than the MAC and that paid off last season and now he is in his 2nd season with the Chips and I feel that they are under-valued in this spot. Yes they lost some key personnel from last year's team but the same holds true for Ohio University. I am happy to take the home dog here as this line was originally a pick'em. 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Of course this goes without saying, and is evident with the big point spread posted on this game, but the Buccaneers are the much better team in this match-up. However, that certainly does not mean they are worthy of laying nearly two touchdowns on the road against a Giants team that is a little better than people give them credit for. In terms of situational value, this is a great spot for New York as they catch Tom Brady and the Buccaneers right before a huge Sunday night game against Drew Brees and the Saints. Not only is that a divisional game for TB, it is also a revenge game as the Bucs lost their season opener at New Orleans this year. Based on records entering this weekend's action, other than the Packers, none of the 6 wins the Buccaneers had were against teams with a winning record. Now they face a Giants team with a poor record too but that's not my point. The point I am making is that be careful giving too much credit to TB based on their early season schedule and, keep in mind, of the 3 tougher teams they placed they won only 1 of those games. They beat GB and lost to NO and the Bears. In Monday's match-up the Giants are going to be tough to put away. They are a respectable defense that has allowed 26 points or less in 5 of 7 games. In terms of putting points on the board, New York has been better in their last 3 games as they have averaged scoring 25 points per game. As good as the Bucs defense is, this is a Tampa Bay team that has allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. I see TB winning this game but I don't see the victory coming by a double digit margin and those numbers I just mentioned support my theory on this one. Additionally, the Giants are well-rested coming off a Thursday night game. They blew a late lead in that one while the Buccaneers were up by just a single score against Vegas last week before they pulled away in convincing fashion late. I like the fact too that QB Daniel Jones led New York to the comeback win (22-3 2nd half) in their win at Tampa Bay last season. The Bucs are better this season but the Giants again won't go away without a fight here and that gets them the cover in this one in my opinion. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - It might seem difficult to lay double digits with a 2-4-1 Eagles team but I can quickly ease your mind about that for sure. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this season. Yes indeed Dallas has not covered a single game this season and I certainly don't see that changing this week. I don't expect to see Andy Dalton here as he is in concussion protocol. That means Ben DiNucci is expected to get the start here. He'll be protected by a makeshift offensive line that is the worst in the NFL this season. He'll be handing off the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and he is having a rough season with as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns. Also, the Eagles have one of the top defensive lines in football. This will create havoc for the Cowboys as plays will get blown up at the line of scrimmage. Dallas has scored an average of 6.5 points per game the past two weeks! Each of the Cowboys last 3 losses have come by 11 points or more - average margin of defeat was 20.3 points per game. The Eagles will show no mercy here and are getting a little healthier on the offensive side of the ball. This is a big rivalry for Philly and they are at home and have a bye week on deck. Remember the Eagles blew a 17-0 lead against the Redskins in the very first game of this season. In other words, they already know no lead is safe no matter the situation. Carson Wentz has been playing much better in recent weeks and leading this team to victories. They are facing a Dallas defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL and now has even started unloading veterans to get younger guys more playing time. Waving the white flag? No it is still too early for that but the fact is that this Cowboys team is in disarray and they are in big trouble in this one. The Eagles have scored an average of 26 points per game their last 4 games and that included 2 wins and note that the 2 losses were against 2 of the best teams in the NFL - Steelers and Ravens. The Cowboys last 3 games included games against the Giants and Redskins and yet they still allowed an average of 32 points per game during this 3-game stretch. I just don't see the Dallas offense doing much and Wentz has averaged 277 yards passing the last 3 weeks and thrown for 6 TDs and run for 2 more. Considering all factors, this one turns into an absolute rout because there is no love lost between these two rivals and the Eagles still remember the Redskins loss in a key week 1 divisional battle. Philly won't take their foot off the gas here and the Cowboys defense is one of the worst units in the league. 8* PHILADELPHIA

NFC West Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - I am envisioning a shootout here. Yes I am aware of the most recent injury news (both good and bad) for each team. That said, the Niners Jimmy Garoppolo is set to have a huge day against the league's worst secondary in Seattle. As for the Seahawks Russell Wilson, he'll pick apart a Niners secondary that has been impacted by injuries. Yes, the 49ers had a great performance on defense last week but that is because they faced Patriots QB Cam Newton whom, in my opinion, likely spends more time looking at fashion choices and what he'll wear to the next game than actually preparing for opposing defenses. All kidding aside, Newton does indeed have a "few screws loose upstairs" in my opinion. That said, now the Niners face the best offense in the league and this one has all the right ingredients to be very high-scoring. The injury issues have actually helped us because it has kept this total from going higher (at least so far). The fact is I just don't see many stops here. The #1 offense gets it done at home but a surging Niners team with Jimmy G at the helm can also give the league's worst defense problems too. If you like seeing the skills of punters don't watch this game! I expect very few punts! The 49ers seem well past their 2-game slump against the Eagles and Dolphins. Keep in mind, prior to that they had averaged 29 points per game their 1st 3 games this season. They also enter this game averaging 28.5 points their last two games. As for the Seahawks, they are averaging 34 points per game on the season! They are also allowing 29 points per game! I know this is a big divisional showdown but it also sets up well to be a shootout! Beautiful weather in Seattle today too. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation#253 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - Why is it that the Packers did not make it to the Super Bowl last season? That question could generate a number of responses but, technically, there is just one reason. Green Bay lost to the 49'ers in the NFC Championship Game. Today is Sunday. 4 days from now the Packers are at San Francisco for a Thursday Night game. This is clearly a lookahead situation. I know what you're thinking...that the Vikings are a division rival, etc. Valid thinking for sure but GB already beat Minnesota this season and the Vikes carry an ugly 1-5 record into this game. Green Bay might subconsciously be thinking this will be an easy game. That is the thinking that will proven wrong and the Pack get in trouble here as they already have one eye on a revenge game at SF coming up! That wasn't just any loss folks...that was a loss that kept Aaron Rodgers and company from playing in the Super Bowl! In terms of additional value here, the Vikings are off a bye week and that is a chance to hit the reset button on what has been a tough start to the season. Additionally, the Vikings last 4 games resulted in just 1 SU win but 2 of the 3 losses came by just a single point! That means if you had Minnesota +6.5 in each of their last 4 games you would have cashed 3 of your 4 tickets. Indeed the Vikings do come into this game on a 3-1 ATS run. The only ugly loss was when the Vikes faced a very determined Falcons team right after they had fired their coach. The last two meetings between these teams at Lambeau Field resulted in a 5 points Vikes loss and a tie game. This one will be another tight game the way I see it and, if the Vikings don't win outright, they'll lose by a very small margin in my opinion. 8* MINNESOTA

SEC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a big dog. The Tigers have played a very tough schedule so they are a battle-tested already and building momentum as they are off back to back wins. I also like the fact that Missouri proved they could win no matter the style of play. They beat LSU 45-41 in a high-scoring thriller and then beat Kentucky 20-10 in a low-scoring grinder. I really like the Tigers defense this season. Major improvements on that side of the ball in terms of personnel and coaching and it has paid off. The bigger point totals that Missouri allowed in the first 3 games are actually a bit deceiving. Note that the Tigers have allowed only 365 yards per game. That said, the bigger point totals allowed in the first 3 games certainly had some other variables and are merely helping to give us line value here. I also like the fact that the Gators will be playing their first game in 3 weeks (covid issues) and there could be some rust and lingering issues as a result. After Missouri got back to back wins in this series, Florida exacted double revenge last year but the first downs were only 18-15 in that 23-6 final. Another case where we're getting some extra line value baked into this line. I look for Missouri to be in this game all the way. The Gators lost to A & M in their most recent game and their only other two games this season saw both decided by 16 or less points. The point is that even if factors were normal for this game I could see the Tigers hanging within this 14 point spread all game long but, with extenuating factors, I feel this tough Mizzou defense could keep this team within 7 all game long and the Tigers just might even be in line for a huge upset win late in this one. Grab the big points. This year it is Missouri with revenge on their minds and they have a bye week on deck while Florida has huge game with Georgia on deck! 10* MISSOURI

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #175 Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - Baylor's season has been tremendously impacted by Covid. Sure they were able to win their first game but that was against a Kansas team that is annually very bad and has prove to fall into the "very bad" category once again this season. Following that win the Bears lost 27-21 in double OT to West Virginia but they were fortunate that game even got into OT. The Mountaineers never trailed the entire game and led by at least 7 points most of the way. Speaking of misleading finals, Baylor also managed to fall by just 11 points at Texas last week but they were dominated in most aspects of the game and trailed it by 27-3 at one point before some good fortune led to a late rally that was still well short of threatening anything but the cover. The point is that Baylor beat a bad Jayhawks team and then were clearly outclassed in their next two games and they will be outclassed again here by the Horned Frogs. TCU has played a much tougher schedule than Baylor. That said, the Horned Frogs 1-3 SU record may not impress but the teams they have played have a combined SU record of 13-7 and all are tough Big 12 teams. I love taking solid teams off back to back losses and that is the case here with the Horned Frogs. We get a good team off consecutive SU losses and, keep in mind, they take on a Baylor team with a first year head coach. Yes, Dave Aranda is a solid coach who knows how to construct good defenses but he is in his 1st year as a head coach and first year with the Bears and it is a pandemic-influenced year. On the other side of the field, instead of introducing new coaching and new systems in a year impacted greatly by covid (reduced spring practice too, etc), the Horned Frogs are coached by Gary Patterson...yes, the same Gary Patterson that has been there for 20 consecutive seasons. Considering the above as well as the fact that TCU has revenge from last year's home loss to Baylor, this one is set up perfectly for a road rout. The Horned Frogs beat Texas outright as a double digit dog 4 weeks ago while Baylor faced the same UT team last week and got dominated. Lay the short number with the road fave here. 8* TCU

Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #177 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Knights vs Houston Cougars @ 2 ET - I know this total is a huge one but this game might even hit the century mark. Last week UCF faced Tulane and that game totaled 79 points through 3 quarters. The only reason the scoring slowed down was because the Knights had built a huge lead on the Green Wave and so they took their foot off the gas and the last points were just 6 from Tulane in the entire 4th quarter. Now, in this game you have a point spread of just 3 points and this truly is expected to be a back and forth shootout. The over is 4-1 in Knights games this season. The over is 3-0 in Houston's games this season. Based on the current total and the line on this game the odds makers are expecting a 42-39 UCF win. However, the Knights have actually scored 49 points or more in all but one of their games and Houston can score right along with them. I expect this game to get into the 90s. The Knights are the #1 ranked team in the nation for pace on offense as they average 91.8 plays per game on offense! However, their defense is giving up 482.2 yards per game game and allowed 50 points at SMU in their most recent road game. The Cougars allowed 43 points in their most recent home game and are in real trouble here against a Knights offense averaging 646.8 yards per game! UCF allowed over 700 yards in that SMU game however. This game simply has shootout written all over it with Gabriel (UCF) and Tune (Houston) being very talented QB's facing defenses they can pick apart. The Cougars defensive numbers would be even worse if they didn't face Tulane and Navy this season...two teams that are having issues on offense this year. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #108 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-) vs East Carolina Pirates @ 9 ET - Last season Tulsa outgained East Carolina by a margin of 286 yards and that was on the road! Not only that, this is the first home game of the season for the Golden Hurricane and so I expect them to roll big here. Normally I don't like laying big numbers but this is a rare exception. Not only is this one quite a mismatch in terms of talent level of these two teams, the Pirates have also been hit by covid-19 issues. This has even hit their starting QB but he is expected to play in this game but he and other players have missed practice time and there have been quarantine issues and the list goes on. I know that East Carolina can score some points but the Tulsa defense has been fantastic this season and I expect that to continue here. In terms of common opponents, East Carolina faced UCF and they were at home for that game and still got blasted by 23 points. Tulsa faced the same Knights team and they were on the road for that game and yet got a huge upset win as they won outright by 8 points as a 3-TD underdog. The Golden Hurricane are allowing only 18.3 points per game this season while the Pirates are allowing 37.8 points per game. Defense and the fact that this is Tulsa's first home game of the season will prove to be the difference in this game. East Carolina is allowing 212.8 rushing yards per game and last season the Golden Hurricane ran for 338 yards against the Pirates and that was on the road! 10* TULSA

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #158 Thursday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 10 PM ET - The Bulldogs are off an ugly season-opening loss marred by turnovers. However, they were facing a revenge-minded Hawaii team they had beaten 3 straight years. That is not an excuse but simply a fact as they faced a hungry dog that is an improving program and they struggled. Now it is Fresno State that has revenge on their minds as they take on a Colorado State team that defeated them by double digits last season. Edges for the Bulldogs abound in this one as last season they were the better running team plus the better team in terms of defending the run. Also, Colorado State hired the former Boston College coach soon after he was fired after being mostly mediocre for the Eagles. This was not consider a great hire in Fort Collins circles and the pandemic has added to the challenges for him in his first season with the Rams. Spring practice time ended up being much shorter than it would have been and also, in recent weeks, practices leading up to this game have been impacted by some covid-19 issues on the team. That significantly hampers a team that also hasn't played yet while Fresno State does have the edge of having a game under the belt. Additionally, the Bulldogs defense is going to take advantage of the Colorado State offensive line which is an area of concern for the Rams and is what prevents them from establishing a consistent ground attack. Look for the home dog to have the better ground game here and look better on the defensive side of the ball too. Will grab the 2 points in case it is tight but should not need them. 10* FRESNO STATE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - I know it may seem tough to trust the Falcons here after they found a way to lose another late lead but, keep in mind, Atlanta has been playing better since the coaching change. There is a different atmosphere around this team now and the resilience will shine through in this divisional game which is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Matt Ryan has been piling up yardage for the Falcons and, though Carolina got the win in the first meeting, they'll struggled to stop a rejuvenated Atlanta team in the rematch. The fact this game is at Carolina just means line value for us because we get a few points to work with too. Also, though the Panthers are off a cover against the Saints last week, they were heavily outgained including by over 100 yards on the ground. Managing to get a cover when you lose the yardage battle on the ground by more than the century mark in an NFL game is nearly a miracle. That said, there will be no miracles here and I expect the better offense (Falcons) in this match-up to rule the day. Keep in mind, Atlanta blew a huge lead against the Cowboys and the Bears to lose those games but that was then and this now. Combining those tight losses with the loss to the Lions this past Sunday however, the point is that 3 of their 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 2 points. In other words, great value with grabbing the points here although I am expecting an upset win for the Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are in the -250 range on the money line. What does that have to do with laying the points here? Well, as you can see from that line, Los Angeles has a high probability of winning this game and the fact is I have had my eyes on this one ever since successfully using the 49ers against LA last week. The Rams are in full-on bounce back mode here and now the point spread has dropped to as low as a -5.5 in some spots as of early game day morning. Now, about that all-important cover...if you are confident the Rams will win you can also be quite confident of the cover. Why is that? Well of the last 12 wins that LA has had, only one (the 3-point win over the Cowboys in Week 1) has come by less than 7 points. Indeed, 92% of the Rams last dozen wins have come by a margin of at least a TD. I fully expect this one will too. I know the Bears have a solid defense but so too does Los Angeles. Also, I really like the LA offense to have a breakout game here. The other two times this season when the Rams were off a game in which they scored 20 points or less they have responded by averaging 33.5 points in their next game. Look for another response here after scoring just 16 last week against Chicago. The Rams have not yet had a breakout game at home as they are averaging just 18.5 points per game at home this season. Look for this to be the game for Jared Goff and company as they are very fired up after last week's poor effort. As for the Bears, I know they have made some positive strides since Nick Foles took over but their only two tough opponents this season both were faced in Chicago. In those two games - versus Indy and TB - the Bears averaged just 15.5 points per game and that included 8 points on a late TD and 2 point conversion against the Colts with under a minute to go in a game that was really all but already decided at that point. In other words, I am not impressed with this Bears offense and now this is the first time this season they are facing a tough team on the road. They won't be able to keep up with the Rams as I expect LA to have a huge game offensively. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #468 Sunday 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Every week I always am on the lookout for what I would call "strange lines" in NFL. They are games I want to investigate because if it is something the public is likely to line up on then of course I want to be on the other side of it. This game is a perfect example. Seattle is off their bye week, they are 5-0 on the season, and they have been available as low as a -3 in a game against a Cardinals team that is certainly not known as a powerhouse and already has 2 losses on the season. Who do you think the public is going to take in this game? Exactly! So in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side but, also in typical fashion, of course it is not without good reason or at least what I certainly feel very strongly is good reason. Yes the Cardinals are off a huge win on MNF over the Cowboys but if you think they are going to fall flat against an NFC West rival that they are chasing for the top spot in the division, there is just no way! Adding to some additional value for the home dog here is the fact that they have a bye week on deck. The Cardinals will absolutely go all out in this one and I expect them to win outright but certainly am happy to grab the 3.5 points being offered. The Seahawks have the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. Seattle is allowing 471.2 yards per game which is 125 ypg more than the Cardinals are giving up. Seahawks must have faced a powerhouse schedule, right? Nope! Even though one could argue their schedule has been tougher than the Cards, the fact is the teams Seattle has faced have a combined record of 9-20 this season and none of them have a winning record. The Cardinals dominated the Seahawks on the scoreboard AND in the stats when these teams last met and that was in Seattle. In the meeting that preceded that, the Seahawks beat the Cards by 17 points here in Arizona but the yardage edge was only 21 for Seattle and now it is payback time. This Cardinals team is better than people realize and the Seahawks defense is going to struggle badly to try and contain elusive QB Kyler Murray. Look for a home dog outright upset as another unbeaten falls this week but there is no way I am passing up on grabbing the 3.5 points here. 8* ARIZONA

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:25 ET - The Chargers are very close to the bottom ten of the league for team defense as they are allowing 380.6 ypg. The Jaguars are near to the very bottom of the league as they are allowing 414.5 ypg. This one should see plenty of offense as a result. LA is coming off a bye week and healthier then they have been all season. I expect a big game from QB Justin Hebert here. As for the Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, I know his season numbers are not so impressive but now he faces a team that has one of the worst pass defenses in the league so far this season and he'll take advantage. This game is off the radar of most people because neither one of these teams is trending to the over or the under or this season. However, that is just how I like it as that preserves the line value for us in being able to take the over in a game involving two defenses that have struggled and we'll also have very nice weather conditions for this one. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:05 ET - First off, many of you know that I live in Vegas but want everyone to know I am not a Raiders fan. Not saying I am against Las Vegas, I wish them well and hope the franchise is very successful here just like the Golden Knights have been in hockey - also not a fan of that team by the way. So, the point is, there is no favoritism involved with me making this big play. This is purely based on situational value and waiting has paid off in terms of getting a better number too. As of gameday morning, this line is up to a 5.5 as the big news this week in Vegas was the covid testing and impact on the offensive line for the Raiders in this one. However, let me give you the bigger news on this one! Las Vegas enters this game off a bye week while Tampa Bay enters this game off a huge win over previously unbeaten Green Bay. Now many of you will say the home team here is also off a huge win since they won at Kansas City two weeks ago. However, the key here is the bye week and also the fact that the Raiders lost at home in their game that preceded the upset of the Chiefs. Now the even bigger news flash here that seems to be forgotten by some is Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden has it out for the Buccaneers in this one. Why? He was fired by them after 7 seasons about a decade ago. This Raiders gig is his first foray back into head coaching since that happened. You think he might have a little extra motivation for this game? Ya think?!?! Indeed he has had two weeks to prepare for this one and Las Vegas will be ready here and I feel the covid situation will prove to not be a big deal at all and the O-line will be just fine in this game. Don't be surprised if the Bucs are a little flat after that fantastic effort against the Packers. As for the Raiders, there will be nothing flat about their game on Sunday. They will come ready to play and I expect a huge game for them. Yes the Buccaneers have the better defense in this match-up but they will struggle to come anywhere close to matching the effort they just gave against Green Bay last week. Couple that with the fact that the Raiders offense (399.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Bucs offense (358.2 ypg) and you have a fantastic home dog situation here. With Tom Brady in Tampa they will continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. We take advantage. 10* LAS VEGAS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - In a match-up of unbeatens I am happy to take the better defense in this one. I know Tennessee has made a lot of noise in their past two games with huge offensive performances but the Titans defense (409.8 ypg) ranks among the worst in the league. The Steelers defense (285.2 ypg) ranks among the best in the league. Yes, Pittsburgh has a huge game with the Ravens on deck but there is no way they are looking past an undefeated Titans team. This is particularly true when they themselves are also undefeated and certainly looking to stay that way. I also like the fact that all of the Steelers wins have come by 5 or more points while Tennessee's first 3 wins all came by 3 or less points and then last week's win was in OT. Also, I am sure some Titans fans sent thank you letters to Texans interim head coach Romeo Crennel for his idiotic decision to go for 2 late in the 4th quarter instead of being a normal coach and being happy to kick the extra point and have an 8-point lead. That is the key reason the Titans are still undefeated and, with all their close games this season, it is only a matter a time of that "playing with fire" gets Tennessee burned. I expect them to feel that "burn" this week. 8* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #386 Saturday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Gophers typically are the punching bag of the Wolverines but things are changing. As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian in many situations and this one is no exception. History can lead to value when times are changing and Minnesota is on their way up in recent season while Michigan continues to tread water. Yes the Wolverines defense should be solid but their offense has some major question marks heading into this season. Minny is really going to be up for this game and they have a very potent offense which I feel strongly will prove to be too much even for a solid defense like Michigan has. That said, the Wolverines offense will not be able to keep up in this one and that will be the difference in the game. Some will argue this point but I feel it is easier to replace guys on defense than offense. The Golden Gophers lost a lot of key personnel from last season's defensive unit while the Wolverines suffered massive attrition to the roster on the offensive side. Statistically these teams were nearly equal last season. Considering the above as well as the 3.5 point line and I feel the value clearly lies with the home dog here. Most will be lining up on Michigan here with their history of success at Minnesota. Keep in mind, this Gophers team has a lot of confidence now after their 11-win season last year. This program is stronger than it has been in some time and you'll see that on the field Saturday. 8* MINNESOTA

Big 12 Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 5:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a home dog. The Red Raiders are off a bye week which followed 3 straight losses. They are making a change at QB and I like the move and they have had extra time to prepare for this week's game which means its "all systems go" and I expect a jolt of energy for the team. While on paper it looks like the Mountaineers have the much better defense, note that the Red Raiders have faced some tough competition (like Texas) that ran up their stats in a negative way on the defense side of the ball. West Virginia faced a bad Kansas team and a Baylor team with a new coach and struggling with covid-related issues. The Mountaineers also had a game against Eastern Kentucky. Their only truly tough game was against Oklahoma State and they got rolled by two touchdowns. Lubbock, TX is not an easy place to play and that is particularly true for a Big 12 team that is based in West Virginia! The situation is perfect for the Red Raiders and they are hungry for a win and very hungry for a home win too as this is their first home game since they let a huge late lead slip away against rival Texas a month ago. The home team gets back on track here and I am glad to have the added insurance of the 3 points too with this home dog. 10* TEXAS TECH

Top Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #331 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Knights vs Tulane Green Wave @ 2 ET - The Knights are an offensive juggernaut and the Green Wave won't be able to stop them here. UCF averages 90 offensive plays per game and that makes them the fastest team in the nation in terms of pace on offense. The Knights also can't wait for this game because they are off back to back losses. Central Florida, amazingly, scored only 26 points on 455 yards of offense in their lone home game this season. As you can see, the points were not commensurate with the yardage in that one and that is helping to lead to value in this one. Value with a total over that is set in the 70+ range? Yes, value! The most recent game for the Knights saw them lose 50-49 at Memphis! The aforementioned strange home result of 26 points is the only time this season in 4 games that UCF hasn't scored at least 49 points. Now Central Florida takes on a Tulane team that has allowed an average of 43 points per game the last two weeks. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 Green Wave games. The over is 3-1 in UCF's 4 games this season and that lone exception was a strange result for sure. The story line here is that Tulane has a powerful ground game (even without RB Tyjae Spears) and the Knights have a potent passing game. When you match that up with the defenses this one spells trouble on both sides because UCF can not stop the run and Tulane can not stop the pass. UCF will again score at least 49 here and Tulane has averaged 36.4 points per game this season. The numbers are truly off the charts here with the Knights offense averaging 636.2 yards per game but their D giving up 517.8 yards per game. Yes their games are averaging 1,154 yards this season. That is crazy but true. When you factor that in along with the fact that UCF is off back to back losses, you have the ideal situation because the Knights won't take their foot off the gas here but they can not stop anyone on the other side of the ball and I expect the Green Wave to score quite well too. That should result in this game getting into the 80s.  If you like seeing the scoreboard lit up this is the place to be on Saturday afternoon! 10* OVER in Central Florida

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #314 Saturday 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Florida State Seminoles @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a 7 even though the Cardinals have lost 4 straight games. Why? Well, Florida State is off an upset win over North Carolina while Louisville has lost 4 straight games. But here are the keys. The Cards have played the tougher schedule and they also have revenge here against the Noles. The markets have moved this line lower (as I expected) and that is why there is great value with the home team in this one. The Cardinals lost to Notre Dame by just 5, the Seminoles lost to the Fighting Irish by 16. The Cards lost to to Miami by just 13 while the Noles lost to the Hurricanes by 42. Louisville is allowing about 100 yards less per game than Florida State and the better defense and home field and revenge factors all add up to a big home win here. Plus FSU QB Jordan Travis was with the Cardinals previously so they know plenty about him and his tendencies. 8* LOUISVILLE

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #388 Friday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - It is RARE for me to lay this many points and the situation has to be special for me to ever do it. We have a VERY special situation here. The Badgers were 6-0 last season and destroying everyone they encountered before a trip to Illinois for their 7th game of the season. Wisconsin was a 4 TD favorite in that game and they LOST! It was absolutely one of the MOST unlikely upsets of the entire CFB season. Coming into this season the Badgers are expected to be at the top of the Big Ten West while the Illini are projected to be at the very bottom of the Big Ten West. This game is a complete mismatch. I am fully aware of the QB injury for the Badgers Coan but Mertz is a highly skilled QB that will have very little trouble going against this weak Illini defense. The last two times that the Illini visited Camp Randall they lost by an average of 37 points per visit. Wisconsin's last 3 season openers have been won by an average margin of 43 points! Normally I don't lay big points because of the fear of backdoor covers or a team taking their foot off of the gas late. That is not going to be the case here. The Badgers don't want to just win this game, they want to pulverize Illinois in this game. Though Wisconsin has some injury issues at the skill positions on offense they still will have plenty of firepower and their ground game will push the Illini defense all over the field as the Badgers O-line bullies the Illinois D-line. The strength of the Badgers is their defense and I can't see Illinois scoring much at all in this game yet the posted total on this game opened up at 52.5 points! What does that tell you? The odds makers are expecting Wisconsin to score plenty in this game and I concur. Badgers roll by at least 4 TDs in my opinion. 10* WISCONSIN  

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #304 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This line made a major move on Monday around 2 PM ET (11 AM PT here in Vegas where I live). I watched the screens light up as the Eagles line got pounded down. The thinking process here by the betting markets must be that the odds makers have no idea about injury situations and don't watch the games. They saw Miles Sanders get hurt and they were aware of the Zach Ertz injury. Yet they still posted this line near a -7 which is where it belongs. But now due to false market perception this line has been driven down to a 3.5 which is basically saying the Giants and the Eagles are equal teams if they played on a neutral field. I vehemently disagree with this assessment. Note that as good as Zach Ertz is, the fact remains he has averaged only 16 receiving yards per game the past 3 weeks! He has NOT been a huge component of the Eagles offense in recent weeks. Also there is a decent chance the Eagles will get WR DeSean Jackson back for this one plus Alshon Jeffery even has an outside shot at playing too. Certainly the Sanders injury hurts but the Eagles have some other running backs they will make use of here. Their comeback against the Ravens (would have tied it if not for a late failed two point conversion) did not feature Sanders or Ertz. After going toe to toe with the Ravens now the Eagles take on a Giants team that barely hung on for their first win of the season. New York had started the year 0-5 and other than one 34 point outburst against a horrific Cowboys defense, the Giants averaged only 13.4 points per game in their other 5 games and did not top 20 in any of those games. Conversely, the Eagles have scored at least 23 points in 4 straight games and have averaged 26 points during this stretch. Again, Ertz has played little role in this too. Just look at his stats if you don't believe me. The Eagles have swept the Giants each of the past two seasons and the average margin of victory in those 4 games is 12 points. Eagles hungry for a win, Giants just got their first, Wentz starting to look better (even against powerful Ravens) and Jones for the Giants is still a very young QB trying to find his way at the NFL level. Jones now faces a dangerous defense in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a powerful defensive line. Grab the line value with the small home favorite that is very hungry to get back into the win column and will take care of business against a division rival once again here just like the other recent meetings. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7:30 ET - The Mountaineers could have some rust because they haven't played in 4 weeks in this pandemic-impacted season. However, Appalachian State is still a far superior team to Arkansas State and also is at home for this one. As a result, look for the Mountaineers to eventually have no problem in pulling away as this game goes on. The big difference is Appalachian State can actually play a little defense while Arkansas State has been horrendous on that side of the ball. The Mountaineers have allowed a TOTAL of just 58 points in their 3 games this season. Conversely, the Red Wolves have allowed 52 points in a single game twice in their last 3 games! Arkansas State is allowing 40 points per game and 482 yards per game this season while Appalachian State allowing just 323 yards and 19 points per game! The Mountaineers improve to 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in SBC action. 8* APPALACHIAN STATE

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The line on this game prior to the Dak Prescott injury was Dallas -3 and it was moving toward -3.5 for sure. But then he got hurt on Sunday so the game came off the board and when it went back up it was Arizona -3. Now all week long I have patiently waited for this one as I knew "America's Team" would get their love from the betting markets and that we'd eventually get the Cardinals as a dog in this one. Sure enough the line has swung back almost to where it was with Prescott at the controls! We are now seeing 1.5 show up this morning on the Cowboys and, in all likelihood it could even climb higher. However, this is the time of day I post my picks here generally so, for me, it is now "go time" with this one. Keep in mind, the last thing the Cowboys could afford was an injury to Prescott. Why? Well because their offense is the only thing they have going for them. This team's defense is atrocious and now led by Andy Dalton at QB. He had some good years in Cincinnati for sure. The key word there however is "had". Note that in Dalton's final season there he threw nearly as many INT's as TD's and had his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season and had a career high in fumbles. Why do you think the Bengals were ready to move on? And, keep in mind, this is the Bengals we're talking about folks! The Cardinals defense will have their ears pinned back for this one (on the attack like angry dogs) and they are allowing only 20.4 points per game. As for the Cowboys defense, they have allowed 40 points per game their last 4 games and have allowed at least 34 points in all 4 of their games since a season opening 20-17 loss to the Rams. Dallas barely held on to beat the Giants last week and their only win so far this season was their miraculous 1 point win against Atlanta earlier this season. Keep in mind, Atlanta and the Giants were a combined 0-10 entering this weekend's action and the Cowboys defense allowed 73 points in those 2 victories. Unless Dallas can pull a rabbit out of the hat on defense I see them struggling against a Kliff Klingsbury coached team with Kyler Murray at QB. Both those guys have Texas roots and Murray has fond memories of games played here in Big D. In fact, Murray is 6-0 all time in games played here including 3 state championships here when he played for Allen High School and also he won a Big 12 title game here too when he was with OU. I would take Murray over Dalton all day every day and it is hard to dispute the importance of the QB in this day and age of pass-happy pro football! Plus he is a dangerous runner too. Overall the Cardinals are the better team and this Dallas defense can't stop anyone and that will end up putting a lot of pressure on Dalton in this one to try and trade scores with the Cards. I don't see that happening. 10* ARIZONA

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 5 ET - The Chiefs are off a loss so the whole world seems to be lining up on them here and ignoring some key facts. One, the Bills are a pretty good team in their own right. Two, this game is being played at Buffalo. Three, the Bills are also off a loss and they are angry about it as it was an ugly one at Tennessee. When you consider these factors above it simply makes no sense for this line to have gone from a field goal all the way up to nearly a full six points as of game day morning. Just like we saw last night with the 49ers standing up strong as a home dog after an embarrassing loss, I am confident we will see the same thing tonight with the Bills. One of the Chiefs 4 wins came by 3 points in OT. For the Bills, they were a perfect 4-0 SU their first 4 games and I just don't see them getting blown out here. If they lose I am projecting it to be by 4 or less points but an outright home dog upset like we saw last night with San Francisco would not surprise me either. This Bills team is better than people realize. Yes, Kansas City is a very good team but this is not a fun place to play and the temperature will be holding in the 40s with a good chance of rain throughout this one. All of that favors the home dog as well. 8* BUFFALO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian by nature. That said, it should come as no surprised that I am backing the 2-3 Niners over the 4-1 Rams in this one. In a primetime game especially (when the lights are shining and they know the entire NFL world is watching them), a home dog is going to bring its best effort. This is made even more true when that home dog is facing a hated division rival. The 49ers did sweep the Rams last year so I am well aware of the fact that this is a revenge game for Los Angeles. However, that sweep last year also means that the 49'ers have had the Rams number so to speak too! Note also that all 4 of Los Angeles' wins have come against the NFC East or, as it is more appropriately known, the NFC Least! The combined record of those 4 teams is 4-15-1. The only time Los Angeles faced a tough team was when the Rams faced the Bills in Buffalo. Though they rallied in that game they actually were down huge in that game before the late rally. I like the Niners defense here and also am expecting a huge bounce back from the offense. They'll absolutely be ready here with some positive adjustments after the horrific effort against the Dolphins last week. The 49ers are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and get the cash again here. 8* SAN FRANCISCO

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - two weeks ago when this line first came out the bucs were favored by 2.5 points...now the bucs are a 1 point home dog in this match-up...the line made a move after the bucs lost last week to the bears but, keep in mind, tampa bay outgained chicago by nearly 100 yards in that game...in comparing the buccaneers and packers, the bucs have been the more impressive defense early this season...i know rodgers has been the much better qb for green bay than brady has for tampa bay...however, i would not be surprised to see brady come up with a huge performance here...factor that in along with the better defense and home field edge and i feel we have great line value here...yes the packers are undefeated on the season and the tampa bay already has two losses but, with my contrarian way of thinking, that is part of the reason i like this play even more...keep in mind, green bay is 4-0 this season but the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 5-14...the only team with a winning record that the packers have beaten is the saints (currently 3-2 on the season) and they appear to be really down a few notches this season...i am not totally knocking the packers here but just saying this was a very intriguing line to me and, with the movement and the current market perception that is anti-tampa bay and pro-green bay i absolutely love this spot for a home win...8* TAMPA BAY

AFC South Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #257 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Titans have scored an average of 35.3 ppg their last 3 games. The Texans are a new team after firing coach Bill O'Brien and with Romeo Crennel taking over head coaching duties on an interim basis. Even though they threw 2 picks in last week's win (their first victory of the season) the Texans still managed 30 points and piled up a ton of yardage. However, this is still a Houston team that allowed an average of 31.5 ppg their first 4 games of the season and I expect them to struggle to contain a potent Tennessee offense on the road. The issue for the Titans (and what is helping gives us value here) is that their defense is worse than what has reflected on the scoreboard. They have benefited based on some key turnovers but that stuff usually doesn't go on forever and, now, facing a newly-inspired Texans team is likely to cause issues for the D of Tennessee. The Titans are allowing 261 passing yards per game and Houston is throwing for 275 passing yards per game. This total opened up in the mid-50s for a reason and I love the fact that it has dropped to the low 50s and feel we have great line value here with this number lower than it should be. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field here. Yes, the Texans held the Jags to only 14 points last week but they allowed nearly 300 yards passing! Houston was helped by 2 Jacksonville fumbles. The Titans will score plenty here but will struggle to slow down the Texans. 10* OVER the total in Tennessee

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #143 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 4 ET - No one will want Mississippi State here. After all, everyone just watched them turnover the ball like crazy and score just 2 points against Kentucky. That said, the Bulldogs have no chance here, right? After all, they are facing an Aggies team that just beat Florida and outgained the Gators by a substantial margin in doing so. In typical contrarian fashion, I actually like Mississippi State a ton in this spot. The Bulldogs beat LSU by double digits in their season opener but then laid an egg against Arkansas the very next week. As a result, there is great line value as the Bulldogs want to atone for Razorbacks defeat here as that has been their only home game so far this season. Texas A & M is 2-1 this season but they barely squeaked by Vanderbilt even though they were a 30 point favorite in that game. In fact, each of the Aggies two wins this season have been by 5 or less points. In between those two wins was a blowout loss at Alabama and the Aggies scored just 24 points in that game while Ole Miss put up 48 on the Crimson Tide the very next week. Mississippi State has revenge here for an ugly loss last year which followed 3 straight Bulldogs wins in this series. Historically the Aggies are not known for traveling well nor for coming up big in back to back big games. The home dog, as a result, is absolutely the way to go in this one. The Bulldogs defense allowing just 4.24 yards per play while Texas A & M allowing 6.75 yards per play. That is a big difference in defensive efficiency and certainly is not being properly accounted for by the betting markets in my opinion. 10* Mississippi State

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #119 Saturday 8* Duke Blue Devils (+) @ NC State Wolfpack @ 3:30 ET - The Blue Devils are off another game marred by turnovers. Yet Duke still won that game by two touchdowns and had a yardage edge of more than 350 yards. I like those kind of numbers as they now get involved in a rivalry game that has seen the dog cover 7 of the last 9. The home team has covered only twice in the last ten meetings! Overall, coach Dave Doeren has led NC State to just 5 covers in their last 14 games as a home favorite in ACC action. The Wolfpack have done a great job of eliminated pressure to their quarterback so far this season but now face a Blue Devils team that already has amassed 18 sacks this season. NC State is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread this season but they have been the beneficiary of bounces for sure and two of their three wins have come by three or less points. I suspect that this one will too and an outright upset from the road dog would certainly not be a complete surprise. Additionally, NC State has North Carolina on deck and that is their biggest rival. The Blue Devils have a bye on deck. From a situational standpoint, this one is excellent and I won't hesitate to back the road dog here. 8* DUKE

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #139 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Arkansas Razorbacks vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 3:30 ET - I know this may seem like a ridiculously high total but I am very confident that is not nearly high enough. Arkansas will get their share of points at home in this one as they take advantage of facing the least efficient defense in college football. That's right, the Rebels are allowing 8.79 yards per play which is, by far, the worst in the nation. What Ole Miss can do though, despite being able to stop anyone, is score plenty. Ole Miss plays fast and averages 77 offensive plays per game and they also are efficient on offense as their 7.44 yards gained per play on offense ranks among the best in the nation. Considering all of the above it comes as no surprise that a ton of points are expected in this one. The Rebels first 3 games have averaged 93.3 points per game and all 3 of them totaled at least 83 points. Arkansas had no problems moving the ball in last week's tight loss at Auburn and that gives them plenty of confidence heading home to host Ole Miss here. This play is centered around the fact that Ole Miss plays fast and won't slow down here and has a great offense but their defense is like a sieve and Arkansas, at home and facing easily the worst defense they have seen this season, will have a huge day. That turns this one into a back and forth shootout. 8* OVER the total in Arkansas

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulane Green Wave vs SMU Mustangs @ 6 ET - I am going to take advantage of the line move here. With season ending injuries to Mustangs WR Roberson and RB McDaniel we've now seen this total drop down to a 64.5 from a 69 and I love the value here. Keep in mind SMU has a very deep WR group and also a ton of talent at the RB position. Sure they would love to have Roberson and McDaniel but they will get along just fine without them as long as QB Buechele is under center as he continues to light up defenses. Buechele should certainly have no problems with this Green Wave defense. Tulane allowed 476 yards in last week's trouncing at the hands of Houston and now face an SMU offense that has averaged nearly 400 yards passing per game in their match-ups with FBS competition. As for the Mustangs defense, I do not trust them and that is why I am big on the over in this one. Tulane has a talented offense, particularly when at home, and the Southern Methodist defense has allowed at least 24 points in all 3 of its FBS games but that easily could me more. The Mustangs have been fortunate because when you look at the yardage stats in those games the fact is that SMU is struggling to get stops. The Green Wave are averaging 37 points per game this season and the Mustangs are averaging 44 points per game this season. If you like seeing the scoreboard lit up this is the place to be on Friday night! 10* OVER in Tulane