Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Titans lost to the Bills by 7 points last week but they missed 4 field goals in that game! As for the Broncos, they are off their first win of the season and it was an upset win at Los Angeles over the Chargers. After that big road win over a division rival, Denver is in the perfect spot to take a tumble back down to reality this week. The win last week for the Broncos was their first ATS cover too in their past 9 games! As for the Titans, they have covered 5 of their last 6 non-divisional road games. Tennessee's strength on offense is their running game. The Broncos weakness on the other side of the ball is stopping the run. That said, and with Denver off a win and the Titans off a loss, the road dog is the play here! In games 5 through 8 of a season, when Tennessee is off a SU loss and facing an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS. Also when in games 5 through 8 of a season and off an ATS loss where they missed covering by a double digit margin, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS in their next game when that game is against an opponent with a losing record on the season. The Broncos, in games 5 through 8 of a season, are 0-7 ATS off a divisional game and facing an opponent off a non-divisional game. Another issue for Denver here is they have a huge game coming up Thursday as it is a divisional game hosting the Chiefs. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Broncos (off a big divisional game and with a big divisional game up next). The fact their next game is Thursday also hurts Denver in this one. Look for the Titans to get the upset. 10* TENNESSEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - This line opened up in the 4.5 range and is now down to a -3 as of early game day morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the line move and backing the favorite in this one. I had my eyes on this match-up when the lines first came out as the Niners are off to a surprising 4-0 start this season but off a Monday night game versus the Browns. Now San Francisco catches an angry Rams team off back to back losses. Los Angeles laid an egg two weeks ago in their loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Then they fell short at Seattle in the Thursday night game last week. The Rams missed a late field goal that would have won the game. That said, LA has plenty of motivation here plus they have a significant rest edge since they played on Thursday of last week while the Niners are on a short week since they played on Monday. Los Angeles is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional action while the 49ers have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 in NFC West action. This is the perfect spot to back a Rams team that blasted San Francisco by an average margin of 22.5 points per game in their two meetings last season. Yes I know the Niners were without Garoppolo in those games but LA didn't exactly just squeak by in those games either. Lay the short number here! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Revenge game for Eagles after the Vikings (who had playoff revenge) handed Philly a 2 point loss in their meeting last season in Philadelphia. Now Minnesota is laying 3.5 points here after they ran all over the Giants last week. The Vikings won't be able to run like that this week as they face an Eagles run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL. That said, the game is in the hands of Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins. Of course there has been a lot of negative talk going on around (and within!) the Vikings organization when it comes to their QB situation. That was quieted last week because they ran the ball so well but that was against a weak Giants team. Now the Vikes face a Super Bowl contender known for stout run defense. This match-up sets up perfectly for the Eagles as a sizable underdog here. Philadelphia has covered 6 of its last 8 games as a non-divisional road dog. This game will come down to Carson Wentz and Cousins. That said, whom do you want running your offense in crunch time? Not only do we get Wentz here, we get more than a field goal on our side. Although I am making this play fully expecting an outright Eagles win, I could certainly see this game being decided on a late-game field goal as well. In other words, there is a lot of value with having the 3.5 points on your side in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - I am aware of the injury issues for the Huskers and that includes QB Adrian Martinez and WR JD Speilman. My sources are indicating both will play at Minnesota tonight. If that would end up not happening, the fact is that I still expected Nebraska to get the cover here and they absolutely have a shot at the outright upset too. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 on the season but they are so vastly over-rated at this point. Minnesota has seen 4 of their 5 wins come by 7 points or less and, keep in mind, their schedule has been very weak. The Gophers have beaten South Dakota State (FCS School), Fresno State (2 OT), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt school). Their two big ten wins came against Purdue (QB Sindelar HURT) and Illinois (one of worst Big Ten programs). Now Minnesota faces a Nebraska team that is 4-2 on the season and that blew a huge lead in an OT loss at Colorado and whose only other loss was against a Ohio State team that is one of the best teams in the nation this year on BOTH sides of the ball. That said, the Huskers are flying under the radar a bit heading into this contest. As for Minny, their 5-0 record has them a little over-hyped right now and I feel an upset is going to be the end result in this one Saturday night. If the Huskers fall short of that they'll still get the cover in my opinion. The Cornhuskers hammered Minnesota by 25 points last year and have won and covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Nebraska has covered 22 of their last 32 road games. If Martinez can't go or gives it a go and then must exit, note that Noah Vedral has a dozen games of experience and the back-up QB did lead the game winning drive last week. The Corhuskers lone loss (ATS and SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Golden Gophers was in their last visit to Minnesota. The Huskers got hammered in that one in 2017 and now it is payback time. 10* NEBRASKA

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #147 Saturday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 3:30 ET - I still feel Arizona State is over-rated. Yes they are off a win at Cal which preceded their bye week. However, the Golden Bears are looking less impressive as each week goes by. As for the Sun Devils, the last time they were at home they did lose to Colorado. They face a tougher challenge now in this home game and ASU's early season hype had a lot to do with a D that didn't allow many points in their first 3 games. However, Arizona State faced Kent State, Sacramento State and Michigan State. Of course the only tough opponent in that grouping was the Spartans and they put up over 400 yards of offense in the game but poor play-calling and turnovers led to Michigan State scoring just 7 points in the game. Now Arizona State faces a Washington State team that is also off a bye week but in a different frame of mind than the Sun Devils right now. That's because the Cougars got blasted at Utah prior to their bye. They can't wait to get on the field as that game was preceded by the insane 67-63 loss to UCLA that was at home for Washington State. The Cougars are in big-time "payback mode" here and ready to resume their early season winning. There is a reason this line was set the way it was (pick'em range) even though ASU is at home and the Cougars are off B2B losses. In other words, don't be fooled as the road team is the play in this one! 8* WASHINGTON STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - The Spartans offense and play-calling is horrible. That said, even though they have a respectable defense, they aren't going to be able to hang around in this game. Keep in mind, Michigan State is just 2-4 ATS on the season for a reason. They underachieve. They managed only 7 points in a loss to Arizona State and that was at home. In their most recent road game they did face a strong Ohio State team so is understandable they only scored 10 points there. But that game also was just last week. This is a horrible spot for the Spartans from a scheduling standpoint. They had to go toe to toe on the road last week with one of the best teams in the nation last week and then they follow it up by making a road trip the very next week to Wisconsin. It doesn't get much worse than that for a team that struggles to consistently score against strong teams. Note that the Spartans now face a rested Badgers team that has allowed an average of just 5.8 points per game on the season! I say "rested" because Wisconsin was able to rest guys last week thanks to a 48-0 plastering of Kent State! Also, the Badgers have been at home ever since their opening season road trip to South Florida in August! This scheduling situation is fantastic for Wisconsin and horrible for Michigan State and now we take advantage! Spartans on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. The Badgers have been at home in Madison the entire month of September and first two weeks of October. 8* WISCONSIN

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #172 Saturday 8* Houston Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - Once the Cougars had their #1 QB and WR redshirt for this season after 4 games, they were left for dead by most pundits. However, this Houston team has depth at both those positions and their first game after the announcements saw the Cougars knock off North Texas by 3 touchdowns. Since then they have had a bye week and now they host Cincinnati before a trip to face a bad Connecticut team next week. In other words, Houston is certainly focused and rested for this opportunity this week as a host against a ranked Bearcats team. The Cougars are catching Cincy at a good time to upset them as the Cats are off an upset win over Central Florida last week. Keep in mind that was the Bearcats first upset win over a ranked foe in 10 years! That emotional game could leave Cincy a little flat here but there is no doubt the Cougars are up for this game. Houston is off a bye week and playing their only home game in a 5-week stretch! Head coach Fickell for Cincy has failed to cover 9 of the last 12 times he was a favorite by 9.5 points or less. The Cougars have failed to cover only 4 times the last 20 regular season games in which they were an underdog. This one has upset written all over it and, if the Cougars do fall short, I expect it to be by just a field goal. 8* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #125 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - Many will look at this game and say it is too many points to lay. After all, the last five regular season meetings have been decided by a TD or less. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points. The Longhorns have issues defending the pass and this weakness is made even more concerning by the fact that Texas has injuries in its defensive backfield as well. The Sooners have allowed an average of just 16 points per game their past 4 games. The Longhorns have allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sooners hammered the Horns in last year's Big 12 Championship Game and I am looking for more of the same here. These teams are close in the rankings and this is a neutral site game. That said, the odds makers are well aware of that and also very aware, of course, that the the recent history between these teams would suggest a tight game. Like I said, they knew all that and yet still opened this line up at double digits. They know what they're doing and so do we! Lay it! 8* OKLAHOMA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET - Last week New Mexico lost to San Jose State and the Lobos scored only 21 points. However, a lot of that had to do with 6 turnovers in the game! New Mexico is likely to bounce back at home this week and score plenty of points against a weak Colorado State defense and with pleasant weather expected in Albuquerque this evening. The Rams are also off a low-scoring game but they faced a tough San Diego State defense. That said, the New Mexico defense is weak and the Colorado State offense will take advantage and get right back on track here. The Lobos pass defense is allowing 319 yards per game and even with the Rams down to a back-up QB they had been impressive until running into a tough Aztecs defense last week. The Colorado State weakness is a defense that many teams dominate and the Rams impressive numbers on D last week certainly were an aberration due to facing a San Diego State offense that ranks as one of the worst in the nation. Prior to last week the Rams had allowed 45.5 points per game in 4 games against FBS opponents. The Lobos are allowing 39.6 points per game on the season. This one will feature plenty of offense all game long. Two of the worst defenses in the nation matched up here and each team's offense can move the ball quite well. New Mexico has averaged 47 points per game in two home games this season. Colorado State had averaged 32.4 points per game on the season before being held down by San Diego State last week. They'll respond big here and both teams move up and down the field quickly in this one. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #105 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas State Bobcats vs UL Monroe Warhawks @ 9:15 ET - I don't trust either one of these defenses. Last season's meeting was low-scoring but that followed back to back meetings that totaled over 70 points each of the prior two seasons. That is the type of game I am looking for here. The Warhawks defense has struggled badly this season. The Bobcats defense, when facing FBS level competition, has been unable to stop the run this season. Of course when teams can run on you then that also opens up the aerial attack as an option too because the run game has to be respected and a defense can't just sit back on the pass. The point is that the Warhawks will be able to move the ball both ways tonight on this sub-par Texas State defense. Likewise the Bobcats should enjoy success against a UL Monroe defense that has allowed 45 points or more in 3 of its last 4 games overall. In terms of just looking at road games the Warhawks allowed 58.5 points per game. That was against tougher competition than what UL Monroe is facing here but it is plain to see that the Warhawks do have issues on the defensive side of the ball. UL Monroe, after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, has a record of 12-6 to the over. The Bobcats, as a home underdog of 7 points or less, have gone over 3 straight times. Look for 4-0 here! 10* OVER the total in Texas State

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #103 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - This is simply too many points. Yes, I am aware of the history rookie quarterbacks have when visiting Foxboro for the first time against Belichick and Brady. However, I am also aware that the Giants have covered 12 of their last 18 in non-conference action and 7 of their last 9 as a road dog. Also, certainly I would never argue the fact that New England is a great team. They prove themselves year in an year out. However, before you go announcing them as Super Bowl champions this season, note that they have played only one tough team (Buffalo) this season. Note that the struggling Steelers they faced are 1-4 on the season. Additionally, the Patriots other 3 games were against the Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. Those teams are a combined 0-13 SU on the season! Not exactly a powerhouse schedule that the Pats have faced thus far. That being said, don't be surprised when the scrappy Giants hang around in this one and get the cover as massive underdogs. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #102 Wednesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (pick) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - This line is right around a "pick'em" even though the Mountaineers are undefeated this season and have also won each of their last 6 meetings with the Ragin' Cajuns. Long-time followers know how I feel about spots like this. I am going contrarian here. This line will be so attractive to those wanting to back Appalachian State for their SU winning streaks (this season and in this series) to continue. As usual I am going against the grain and backing the other side here. However, it certainly is not without plenty of logic. For one thing UL-Lafayette is not lacking for motivation as they lost in the regular season and in the Sun Belt playoff game versus the Mountaineers last season. Also, though both offenses are rolling early this season, the difference in this match-up is the way the defenses have been playing. While Appalachian State is allowing 420 yards per game, the Ragin' Cajuns have shown improvement on defense this season and are allowing only 345 yards per game. When entering a revenge game on a winning streak of 2 or more games SU (in this case 4 straight), Louisiana is 6-0 ATS! UL-Lafayette is also 9-1 ATS versus a conference opponents with a winning percentage of .667 or better. The Ragin' Cajuns are also 6-0 ATS in their game preceding facing Arkansas State. The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS when when facing an opponent with revenge that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. Plenty of support for a play on the home team here and keep in mind Appalachian State had a new coach this year as Scott Satterfield is now the head man at Louisville. The Ragin' Cajuns finally get over the hump against the Mountaineers. This is the year the streak snaps! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - In my analysis of yesterday's play on the Packers I noted how over-rated the Cowboys were because their 3-0 start was helped tremendously by playing 3 teams that now are a combined 2-12 on the season! Now we have a similar situation here. The 49ers are coming off their bye week (by the way they have ZERO wins - SU or ATS - the L7 times off a bye) and San Francisco enters this week with a perfect 3-0 record. Note that the Niners have played Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Those 3 teams are a combined 3-12 on the season. Now, I am not saying that Dallas is a bad team or San Francisco is a bad team. I am merely stating that each of these teams is a little over-rated right now in my opinion. I went against the Cowboys in each of their games since their 3-0 start and I won with New Orleans and Green Bay in doing so. Now I will take a scrappy Browns team against go against the 49ers after their 3-0 start. When bettors think of Cleveland they can't help but think of their opening game debacle against the Titans and that is part of the reason there is current value with the Browns. Cleveland did catch a break with the Jets on their schedule but their other games were against Tennessee, the Rams, and Baltimore. All 3 of those teams are tougher than the teams the Niners have faced this season. The Titans went 9-7 last year and just missed the post-season, the Ravens went to the playoffs, and LA went to the Super Bowl. Don't underestimate the Browns here and catching 5 points with them is an absolute high value spot as it makes even a 4-point loss a win at the betting window and I look for Cleveland to be in this one all the way! By the way, the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against NFC opponents and I also look for them to move to 9-3 ATS their last dozen games in a road dog role as they get the cash here! 10* CLEVELAND

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - Make no mistake the Chiefs are a great football team but the situation here is perfect (literally!) to back the Colts. Not only is Indianapolis 6-0 / 100% their last 6 when playing in a game prior to a bye week, the Colts also have playoff revenge from last season. Additionally, I like the fact that the Chiefs are off a nail-biter last minute win at Detroit last week while Indy is off a disappointing home loss to the Raiders. Again, the set up here is literally perfect. I am not saying I expect the Colts to win outright but I am saying I expect this game to be decided by no more than a TD which means we've got great value here with the big points. Keep in mind, when lines were out this summer this line was closer to a -4 and now we're seeing -11 on this game for KC. Of course this has a lot to do with Andrew Luck's retirement but this is an over-adjustment in my mind. Also, the Chiefs defense continues to be an area of weakness and though Kansas City does hold the edge in terms of overall offense, the Colts have had the better ground game this season. Couple that with the better defense overall and you can make a case for Indy being "in this one" all the way! Under Frank Reich, the Colts are 6-1 ATS when they face a team with a winning record that is off a non-divisional game. By the way, while it is true that the Chiefs are undefeated on the season it also true that each of their last two wins have been very tight games. Also, 3 of Kansas City's 4 games have come against non-playoff teams that had a combined record of 15-33 last season. The Colts are well-coached and will give KC all they can handle in this one. Look for another tight Chiefs win. 8* INDIANAPOLIS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - It was great to watch the over-rated Cowboys flounder when they finally faced a formidable opponent last week. The Saints didn't even have Drew Brees and yet still beat Dallas even though the game was very poorly officiated. As per usual the flags seemed heavy against New Orleans and light against the Cowboys and yet even that wasn't enough to rescue "America's Team". Now instead of facing a back-up QB the Cowboys face Aaron Rodgers and he was on fire for the Packers in their home loss to Philadelphia last week Thursday. Yes Green Bay fell short in that game but they did outgain the Eagles by a substantial margin. Lets not forget that Dallas' wins have come against the Dolphins and Redskins and Giants. The former two teams are still winless on the season and New York is fortunate to be 2-2. The Giants only beat TB because of a late missed chipshot FG by the Bucs and then the G-men got another win because of facing the floundering Redskins. The point is that Dallas still hasn't proven they can beat a good team this season and yet many are already pronouncing them as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. As for the Packers, their wins including knocking off quality defenses in the Bears and the Vikings. Now the Cowboys face an angry GB team after a home loss on national TV in a game in which they were favored. Note that, even though this is a revenge game for Dallas, the fact is the Packers have had their number. Also, in Games 5 through 8 of a season, when the Packers have a winning record but are an underdog and are facing a team that also has a winning record and has revenge too, GB is actually a stellar 10-1 ATS in this situation! Additionally, note that the Cowboys are 0-11 ATS as a conference favorite of 3.5 points or less when they are facing a team with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. That system also fits here. The Packers got punched in the mouth by the Eagles ground game last week. They'll come ready to play this week after that debacle and there is no doubting the offense of the Pack will be the toughest offensive unit that Dallas will have faced this season! 10* GREEN BAY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #455 Sunday 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - While it may seem hard to take any winless team on the road catching only a field goal, it is not as tough when the team you're playing against is Cincinnati. The Bengals looked like absolute garbage on Monday night. Now the fact is one should never put too much weight into just one game but the key here is that the Bengals were 0-3 and facing a division rival on Monday night football. That is the type of game that EVERY team in the NFL gets up for! That said, to see a lifeless Cincinnati team look like absolute trash in a situation like that says an awful lot about just how bad of a mess things are with the Bengals franchise right now. Conversely, the Cardinals at least are showing signs of life. Yes they lost by 17 to the Seahawks last week but the stats in that game were roughly equal. In other words, it was a bit of a "phony" final score. Also, the Cards rallied in the first game of the season to force OT. The fact is Arizona, unlike Cincinnati, is at least showing signs of life under their young head coach and rookie QB. I would not be surprised to see them get the outright upset here but certainly have no hesitation in grabbing the 3 points in this one. The Bengals are 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 points or less when they enter a game off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. 8* ARIZONA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Carolina is struggling with run defense this season and Jacksonville comes into this game as one of the top rushing offenses in the league after obliterating the Broncos with their ground attack last week. Both teams are off victories last week as the Panthers won at Houston and the Jaguars won at Denver. On offense, Carolina's spirit seems rejuvenated with Kyle Allen at QB. I like taking overs when a match-up involves a pair of teams off victories. That means team confidence is high and we've got a low total to work with here too. Jacksonville's pass defense has struggled at times this season and Allen and Company take advantage here. The over is a perfect 3-0 when the Panthers are off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. Look for that streak of overs to move to 4 in a row with a higher scoring game than most are expecting here as the Panthers and Jaguars continue to thrive behind their back-up QBs. Allen gets it done again and the strong ground game of Jacksonville opens things up for Gardner Minshew to attack through the air as well. 10* OVER the total in Carolina

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #359 Saturday 10* Rice Owls (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 7 ET - Rice is in their second season under head coach Mike Bloomgreen and they have turned into the type of scrappy underdog that no one wants to face. It is a slow process but he has made great strides this season thanks to it being his 2nd year with the program and the fact that the Owls returned players with a lot of playing experience from last season. Conversely, even though UAB is an 11-win team from last season, they lost as much (if not the most) playing experience from last season's team and this is out of 130 FBS teams in the nation. Of course this is why the Blazers (11 wins last season) are not an even heavier favorite against a Rice team that entered this season having only won a total of 3 games the past two seasons. I love looking for spots like this because the marketplace is simply behind the power curve in a situation like this and the Owls make for a dangerous dog in this spot. Rice does have a bye week on deck and the Blazers could be guilty of looking right past them and underestimating them. That is because UAB  blasted the Owls 42-0 last year and that game was at Rice. Remember what I said about the coach and about experience above? The fact is that Bloomgreen and his players remember all too well the embarrassment of that ugly home shutout in his first season as head coach last year. It is time for payback at UAB this year. Now I don't necessarily expect Rice to win this game outright but I do expect there is a chance of that as I see this game being decided by the margin of a single score as it will be tight all the way. 3 of the Owls 5 losses this season have been decided by 8 or less points. That means we've got great value here with the Owls available as a double digit dog. By the way, Rice has battled hard with Army, Baylor, and Louisiana Tech this season. Even their game against Wake Forest was much more competitive than the final score indicated. The only game in which the Owls truly got blown out was against Texas and the Blazers most certainly are not the Longhorns! 10* RICE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation#339 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Missouri Tigers vs Troy Trojans @ 4 ET - There is some rain expected in the Columbia MO area today but nothing too excessive or too long in duration. That said, and with insignificant wind expected and mild temperatures, I look for this game to play out with a ton of scoring. Missouri is averaging 38.2 points per game and the Tigers are known for "keeping their foot on the gas" in games like this where they are a huge favorite and have a chance to put up big points. The key to the value with this total, even though it is a large one, is that Troy can score well too. In fact, the Trojans are averaging 40.7 points per game this season. Don't let the big number scare you here as Troy, in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 points, is actually 8-3 to the over! Also, when facing SEC competition, the over is an incredible 14-2 in Trojans games! This is Missouri's first really big total of this season but the past two seasons the over went 6-2 when the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a Tigers game. Missouri has been rolling and that is also noteworthy here as the over is a 6-3 when the Tigers enter a game after 3 straight wins by a margin of 17 or more points. When Missouri faces a team that is not a Power-5 conference, under coach Barry Odom, they have shown a knack for blowing out teams big. With also coming off a bye week and having fresh legs here, the Tigers are going to score a ton but look for Troy stay close to the spread on this game which means we should see a ton of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Missouri

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - The Hawkeyes are currently ranked higher than the Wolverines and yet the odds makers opened this game up closer to a 6 than a 3. However, many are anxious to back Iowa here because everyone remembers how Michigan got bullied at Wisconsin a few weeks ago. First off, the Wolverines were done in by turnovers in that game. Secondly, the game was at Madison. Thirdly, Iowa is not Wisconsin! In fact, one could easily question whether or not the Hawkeyes deserve the current lofty rating they have. Iowa has played a rather soft schedule and, in the only tough game, the Hawkeyes were very fortunate to defeat rival Iowa State. The Cyclones outgained Iowa by a significant margin in that game. Remember a few weeks ago there was an early line on this game and it was in the range of 2 TDs. The odds makers then opened this up closer to 1 TD this week because they knew how the markets would react after recent game results. Sure enough the market pushed it even closer down to a FG. That means we're only laying close to a FG that, only a few weeks ago, was considered 2 TDs better when hosting this opponent. I'll grab this every single time as Michigan has also heard plenty about being manhandled by the Badgers and they look to atone for that performance here. The Hawkeyes are leaving the state of Iowa for the first time this season and they aren't known for traveling overly well. As a road dog, the Hawkeyes are 3-6 ATS the past 3 seasons. The Wolverines are 14-1 SU the last 15 times they have been a home favorite and I have no hesitation in laying the small number in this one. 8* MICHIGAN

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #308 Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - Last year both these teams were ranked and they matched up in a big game with ESPN Gameday cameras rolling late in the season and the Bearcats proceeded to get embarrassed in an ugly loss. Statistically the game was not so bad for Cincinnati but, on the scoreboard, they did lose by 25 points for a very ugly loss and now it is payback time. What most people are remembering about the Bearcats right now is how they got manhandled by Ohio State earlier this season. However, the Buckeyes have been demolishing anyone and everyone that has had the misfortune of having them on their schedule this season. The point is that UC's very ugly loss to Ohio State is actually helping to give us some value in this spot because this is still a Bearcats team that has gone 3-0 in its other games and allowed an average of only 13.7 points per game to teams not named the Buckeyes! As for UCF, they are 4-1 on the season but did lose their only true "test" of the season thus far and that was a road game at Pittsburgh. In my mind losing to the Panthers as a double digit favorite is even worse than the Bearcats getting blasted by one of the best teams in the nation. The Knights do have a bye on deck while the Cats do have Houston on deck. However, UC is actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the game before the Cougars the last 6 times. Payback time here. 10* CINCINNATI

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Rams opened up as the favorites here. Unsurprisingly everyone jumped all over the Seahawks since they are also 3-1 like Los Angeles is and plus they have home field here and Seattle is a tough place to play. As per usual, I am fading the line move and I particularly love this play. The Seahawks are 3-1 but their lone loss came against the only tough team (Saints) that they faced. Seattle's 3 wins came against teams that, through 4 weeks of action, have totaled ONE win between the 3 of them. The fact is the only win among those teams came because they played each other (Cin @ Pit MNF). As for the Rams schedule, they have played 4 teams of which only 1 of the 4 has a losing record. Also, I love the fact that Los Angeles is off an embarrassing home loss to Tampa Bay. The Rams will be ready to respond here and, by the way, as tough as it is to play at Seattle, LA has won each of its past two visits here. Look for the Rams to improve to 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional games as they get a convincing road win here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) vs Temple Owls @ 8 ET - I am aware of plenty of technical data that supports the road favorite Owls in this one. However, from situational standpoint, the Pirates are the play here. I know East Carolina has been a bad team for a number of consecutive seasons now but there have signs of life in East Carolina again thanks to a new head coach and wins in 3 of their last 4 games. I know the Pirates have not played a tough schedule but playing at NC State was certainly tougher than any game Temple has played this season. So, the point is, the Owls haven't exactly played a tough schedule either. Their only road game also saw them installed as a double digit favorite and Temple lost the game outright by double digits. Also, the Owls have a big game coming up hosting Memphis. It would be easy for Temple to look right past the Pirates and be looking ahead to the Tigers. Conversely, there is no doubt that East Carolina is fully focused on this game. It is a home game on a weeknight with the ESPN cameras rolling and the Pirates seek revenge for an embarrassing loss at Temple last season. I do expect the Owls to find a way to win this game but I expect the margin to be just a single score. That said, I am grabbing the big value with the double digit home dog in this one that is showing improvement this season. With each win, their confidence is growing right along with their belief in the system the new coach has put into place. They ride the momentum again here. 10* EAST CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #277 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Neither team can run the ball so they both turn to the pass here. Of course passing is your friend when you're playing on an over. In this case we have a manageable total and the weather also is favorable. The rain in Pittsburgh Monday is expected to be moving out by the evening and the winds will be light and the temperatures mild for this MNF match-up. Both teams have struggled defensively this season. Also, the Steelers have been particularly bad defending the pass early this season and the Bengals have been one of the top passing teams in the league thus far. In other words, Cincinnati matches up well in terms of a big game through the air Monday night but I also expect the Steelers to bounce back big here at home and have a huge game but they'll have to rely on the offense to get it done. Without a running game that means taking to the air and I like Pittsburgh to score plenty at Heinz Field even without Big Ben at the controls. The Bengals have had just 3 unders in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Also, off a loss by 6 or less points, Cincinnati has had just 2 unders in their past 7 games. Overall, when off a road loss, the Bengals are 7-4 to the over. As a home favorite, Pittsburgh is on a 11-4 run to the over their past 15 games in that role! Also, as a home favorite of 7 or less points, the Steelers are 9-2 to the over! When off an ATS cover (but SU loss) in a road game, Pittsburgh is 6-2 to the over. That system fits here after the Steelers lost at San Francisco last week but got the ATS cover. Two desperate 0-3 teams and weak defenses lead to an entertaining game in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The 3 teams the Cowboys have beaten this season are a combined 1-8 and easily could be 0-9 as the Giants got their first win only because the Bucs missed a rather short game-winning field goal last week. The fact is that Dallas has had a fortunate early season schedule and this is not only the first playoff team from last season that the Cowboys are facing, it is also the first team with a winning record from last year that they are facing AND it is a road game. Even without Brees at QB, the Saints are a solid team and they are going to give the Cowboys their first true test of the season. New Orleans has played a much tougher schedule than the Cowboys as they have faced teams that went a combined 34-14 in the regular season last year. In fact, all 3 teams the Saints faced were playoff teams from last year and New Orleans was on the road for 2 of the 3 games. In other words, they are much more battle tested than the Cowboys early this season and that is why sometimes you have to throw early season stats out the window. "On paper" the Cowboys look like the better team right now but, again, they don't play the games "on paper" and the early season schedule certainly should be factored in. Also, note that New Orleans is on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog. Also, this is a revenge game as the Saints had won 10 in a row last season before facing Dallas and being handed a tough 13-3 loss. New Orleans hasn't forgotten about this. The Saints are 8-0 ATS when off an outright upset as an underdog and, though heavily out-statted, they got the outright win at Seattle last week. Also, NO is 16-2 ATS when facing an NFC foe that has a winning percentage of .667 or greater. The Cowboys are 0-10 as favorites of 3.5 points or less when facing an NFC foe. Also, Dallas is off an easy win versus the hapless Dolphins and the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when favored in NFC action and coming off a SU win in non-conference action. A lot of nice systems here plus revenge and home field all in favor of the Saints here. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos certainly didn't look good last week at Green Bay as they were forced into 3 turnovers and allowed 6 sacks. Keep in mind that is the same Packers defense that the Eagles looked pretty strong against in terms of pass protection and that also opened up holes the size a Mack Truck could run through for the Philadelphia running game to get going. The point is that the Broncos care likely to be in trouble again here with their suspect offensive line. Their now taking on a Jaguars defense that tallied 9 sacks in their Thursday night win over the Titans. Jacksonville has been solid in pass protection and in terms of their sack percentage their defense ranks #1 in the league. Now they take on a Broncos team that is near the bottom of the league when it comes to pass protection and when it comes to generating pressure on the opposing QB. With young QB Minshew continuing to look quite solid as he replaces the injured Foles, I like the fact the Jags also have had extra time to prepare for this game. They enjoyed the luxury of playing at home Thursday while the Broncos were at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Additionally, note that the 3 teams the Jags have faced this season, 2 were playoff teams and the other one almost was last season - the combined record of those teams was 32-16 for a .667 winning percentage. The 3 teams the Broncos have faced had a combined record of 22-25-1 last season. Another reason to like the Jaguars here. Don't be fooled by the short line here on the Broncos at home. You know this is an invitation to take Denver at home as this one has "trap line" written all over it. The Jags, under head coach Doug Marrone, are a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a home game and facing an opponent off a SU loss by a double digit margin. Denver lost by 11 at Green bay and the Jaguars destroyed Tennessee at home on Thursday so that system fits perfectly here. Ride the momentum with the road team here as the home team Broncos get dominated in the trenches once again! 10* JACKSONVILLE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The over is 10-2 in the Chiefs last 12 road games. They continue to dominate statistically on offense and have the #1 ranked passing attack in the league. The Kansas City defense certainly has some weaknesses though. Remember how Jacksonville threw all over them in the opener even after losing starting QB Nick Foles. Then after a bit of reprieve for the D courtesy of facing the Raiders, the KC defense faced the red hot Ravens last week. Predictably they struggled against the Baltimore offense as the Chiefs allowed over 450 yards. This game is set up well to be a shootout because the Lions defense has not looked good early this season. Detroit though is at home and brimming with confidence thanks to an undefeated record on the season and the Lions offense should continue to move the ball well. Look for Detroit to continue to ride the momentum and they are 6-3 to the over when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive ATS covers. Overall, the Lions are 11-6 to the over in games played in the first half of a season. The Chiefs continue coming out like gangbusters in their games this season and note that the over is on a 7-2 run when Kansas City enters a game after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. This one turns into a track meet on the FieldTurf at Ford Field in the Motor City. Perfect setting for a back and forth shootout. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #197 Saturday CFB 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Texas Mean Green vs Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - The big news out of Houston was that their starting QB and 2nd leading receiver announced they were taking a redshirt for the remainder of the season so of course everyone jumped on the under here. The fact is that this line move has set up excellent line value on the over in this one. Houston's QB King missed time last season so the back-up QB has seen plenty of action already and is ready to go here. The Cougars will continue to play at a fast pace and they also plenty of team speed which stretches defenses and that includes plenty of depth for Houston at the WR position. That said, this game is perfectly set up to be a high-scoring shootout because both teams emphasize offense and have had struggles on the other side of the ball. Keep in mind, North Texas averaged 35 points per game each of the past two seasons and plus returned a ton of talent on that side of the ball this year. Houston averaged scoring 44 points per game last season but allowed 37 points per game too. This season the Cougars have allowed an average of 39 points per game in their 3 games against FBS competition. The only team they "shut down" was FCS Prairie View. The Mean Green are off a great game versus UTSA but the Roadrunners offense is really bad this season. Note that North Texas did allow 34 points per game in their 3 prior games. This total is far too low when you consider how fast these two teams like to play on offense as well as the defensive limitations of each team. Also, North Texas has averaged scoring 48 points per game in their two home games this season and Houston has scored at least 31 points in 3 of their 4 games. Given the above it is easy to see why I am expecting a shootout here as the weather report for Denton, TX is also good for Saturday evening. 10* OVER the total in North Texas

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #166 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are ranked and the Cowboys are unranked and yet Oklahoma State opened up as a sizable favorite here. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about odds maker "mistakes" and I love fading this false perception when it arises. In this case, I will fade Kansas State. I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats have a great long-term reputation in the underdog role but I don't see them as being able to score enough here to keep with the Cowboys in Stillwater. Note that Oklahoma State ranks in the top twenty in the nation for pace on offense as well as offensive efficiency. Especially with them being at home for this one I just don't see Kansas State keeping up on the scoreboard. The home team has gotten the SU win in 13 of the last 16 match-ups between these teams and, with this line at a -4, any OSU win is likely to be an ATS win as well! The Cowboys certainly want to make the most of this one as it is their only home game in a span of 5 weeks and, trust me, they are well aware of the fact. Also, Oklahoma State can't wait to get back on the field and erase the taste of a bitter defeat at the hands of the Longhorns in Texas last week. The Cowboys are catching Kansas State off an upset win in their most recent game (but Kansas State was not impressive statistically at Mississippi State). The Wildcats then had a bye week after beating the Bulldogs but now they run into a buzzsaw with the Cowboys angry off a loss plus playing this game with double revenge! Yes, the Cats actually won in 2017 at Stillwater too. Payback time here. The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 4-0 ATS when off a road loss. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

National TV Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #173 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - Many are looking for Notre Dame to bounce back after the loss at Georgia last week. However, that was a physical battle against one of the best teams in the country. It is not easy to turn around and face a quality opponent immediately after a game like that. Virginia is a ranked opponent and certainly a very dangerous double digit dog in a spot like this. Yes I know the Cavaliers are off a very sub-par performance against Old Dominion last week as they even trailed 17-0 at one point but clearly Virginia overlooked the Monarchs as they were looking ahead to this big game. What I particularly like about the Cavs here is they have piled up 18 sacks this season and are allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and they have a secondary led by star Bryce Hall. The Cavaliers will bring their "A game" in this one and that means the Fighting Irish are in for a dogfight in this match-up! Cavs head coach Mendenhall has never beaten Notre Dame (0-3 SU) in his career and he is a solid coach that will have a good game plan here to change that. Even if they fall short of the upset I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Look for the Cavaliers to be in it all the way. Though the Irish rolled at home earlier in their only game as a host this season that came against a bad New Mexico team. Also, even with that win and cover over the Lobos, Notre Dame is just 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 points or more. The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. 8* VIRGINIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #116 Saturday 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET - What sticks out in the minds of many is that Boston College lost to Kansas this month. But the Eagles did bounce back from that defeat with a win over Rutgers and, as for the loss to the Jayhawks, the fact is Kansas is a little better this season with Les Miles now at the helm. Boston College enters this home game 3-1 on the young season and one of the victories was over Virginia Tech. That said, they are getting very little respect here from the markets considering they are at home and Chestnut Hill can be a tough team on visitors. I know Wake Forest has had some success here but the Demon Deacons enter this game over-rated because of their 4-0 SU start to the season. This is the 3rd time under head coach Clawson that WF has reached a 4-0 record but the 5th game each time previously has been the one that trips them up and I look for that to be the case again here. This is the first time Wake Forest has been a road favorite in an ACC game in 8 years and keep in, the Demon Deacons are on an 0-3 ATS run as an away favorite. You have to like the ATS runs for the Eagles here as they have excelled in ACC play (15-3) and as a dog (10-2) and particularly as a home dog (6-1). Wake's defense has struggled at times early this season (against Utah State and they gave up 21 points to a Rice team that annually struggles). That was their only road game thus far and now Wake Forest takes on a Boston College team playing its first home game since the embarrassing home loss to Kansas. You know the Eagles want to make up for that in this ACC match-up and I expect them to do just that! 8* BOSTON COLLEGE

Friday ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The Terrapins are improved this season but just how much better are they really? Maryland has played Howard, Syracuse and Temple. Howard is an FCS school. Syracuse lost their star QB among many other personnel losses coming into this season and they are just 2-2 with wins over Liberty and a MAC school. As for Temple, their football program continues to lack in continuity as they constantly change coaches. Anyway, the point is that just as many are questioning the Nittany Lions because of a rather soft early season schedule the same could be said of Maryland and here is what we do know. The Terrapins entered this year having had 4 straight losing seasons. Maryland has a combined record of 18-31 the past 4 seasons. Penn State is expected to regress some this season as they lost key players but this is still a team that entered this season having gone 31-9 the past 3 seasons. Yes they struggled with a scrappy Pitt team two weeks ago but that is the same Pittsburgh team that upset a ranked Central Florida team this past weekend. The Panthers can play. Now with the added edge of a bye week to prepare for this game (Terps had a bye too...I am aware of that) the Nittany Lions are likely to play their most complete game of the season. In comparing these teams PSU is the more talented team and to get them at less than a TD on the road here is a bargain. The reason for the low line is because the Terrapins have earned some style points with the market place because of big wins early this season. But now Maryland faces a Big Ten foe in their Big Ten opener and this is a foe that has beaten them by a combined 142-20 in the 3 meetings the past 3 seasons. This game will absolutely be much more competitive but I still expect the Nittany Lions to win this game by at least two touchdowns. The Terrapins are improving but they have a ways to go! Maryland is off a loss to Temple that preceded their bye week. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS when facing a team with winning percentage of .749 or less that is off a SU loss as a favorite. Keep in mind Maryland was favored by a touchdown in that Temple game and they lost outright. That Terrapins defeat was against the same Owls team that then preceded to get blasted by Buffalo in their next game. Of course that is the same Buffalo team that Penn State, after a lackluster first half, ended up blowing out 45 to 13 early this season. See where I am going with all these comparisons? Road rout time! 10* PENN STATE

Thursday Night Best of the Best - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This one is all about the line value of the situation. Give the Packers credit for their 3-0 start to the season but they also are +6 in turnovers on the season. Green Bay came into the season with a projected win total for this year that was less than the Eagles but now Philadelphia is a tough 1-2 to start to the season and being written off by many. How quickly things change in terms of betting market perception. Now, even though the Eagles are getting healthier with some guys back on both sides of the ball this week, they are still catching about 4.5 point in this one. Again, even factoring in home field this match-up is one that would have been around a pick'em before the start to the season that these two teams have had. So again it comes back to value and Philadelphia being very hungry off back to back losses and getting WR Alshon Jeffery back for this game. Though still without DeSean Jackson for this game, Jeffery makes a difference and Nelson Algoholor is still in there at WR along with Zach Ertz at tight end and the two tight end sets are an option again with Dallas Goedert now healthier too. In terms of points allowed (a stat that often gets skewed) the Packers defense looks much better than the Eagles early this season but in terms of actual yardage these teams are nearly equal on defense. As for the offense, even though the Eagles have dealt with injuries they have been much more impressive than the Packers statistically on that side of the ball. Again, not taking anything away from Green Bay and their 3-0 start but it is leading to great underdog value here. The Packers haven't won more than 3 games in a row (and the Eagles haven't lost more than 2 games in a row) since the 2016 season! Philadelphia is on a 4-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Also, the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU and losses and facing a team that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. That system fits perfectly here and Carson Wentz and Company, backed into a corner, get back into the win column in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - Navy won only 3 games last season and then returned only 4 starters on each side of the ball entering this season. Complicating matters in terms of this game, the Midshipmen have only played 2 games so far and both were against much weaker competition than what they are facing here. Navy has faced East Carolina and Holy Cross in their only two games so far this season. Now, after a bye week, the Midshipmen run into a "buzzsaw" called Memphis. The Tigers averaged 44 points per game the past two games. As for the defense, they returned 8 starters on that side of the ball this season. This could be their best team yet in Mike Norvell's 4 years with the program and remember they won 10 games back in 2017. Remember last year they were ahead 21-9 in the 4th quarter against Navy and then lost 22-21. This is a revenge game for them and also their AAC opener. Like Navy, Memphis is off a bye here. The Tigers are on an 8-1 ATS run in weekday action versus a conference opponent. Memphis is also 7-0 ATS when playing with rest. Navy has Air Force on deck and that is always a big game for them as they battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy. That said, it comes as no surprise that the Midshipmen are 2-5 ATS the past 7 times in their game that is played the week before facing the Falcons. Navy has lost 13 straight road games and I know this is a lot of points but the Tigers are strong enough on both sides of the ball to dominate this game and the revenge factor insures they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. 10* MEMPHIS

Monday Night Mauling - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Teams almost always are amped up for Monday Night Football but this is particularly when they enter a game winless on the season and playing on their home field. Teams view this is as a great opportunity to right the ship while not only their home crowd, but also all of football nation, is tuned in with Monday Night cameras rolling. The fact we can get the Redskins at nearly a full TD underdog price here is a great value considering that the Bears have averaged scoring only 9.5 points per game in their first two games this season. Chicago was fortunate to get the win at Denver last week. Give them credit for sure as they finally got the clutch kick they needed but now there is even concern there again as the Bears kicker is hurting heading into this game. The Redskins have covered 9 of their past 12 games against non-divisional opponents. The Bears have an anemic offense but do have a strong defense. However, the Broncos did throw for nearly 300 passing yards against Chicago last week. The Bears have been strong at getting sacks but the Redskins have done a great job of limiting sacks early this season. That said, don't be surprised if Washington enjoys some success through the air in this game and I don't expect the Bears to be able to get much of, if any, margin in this contest. The Redskins are fired up off back to back divisional losses including the most recent one coming last week as a host. Note that Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points. Chicago is 2-10 ATS their last dozen games against NFC East opponents. 10* WASHINGTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #488 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The Rams are off a big home win versus the Saints but took advantage of a big early turnover in the game plus the Drew Brees injury. An in-game injury to a star player early in a game is very tough to come back from - just ask the Steelers (Roethlisberger) and Eagles (Jeffery and Jackson) how early game injuries can have a rough impact on a team. The point is that LA certainly took care of business at home last week but they had some good fortune due to the Saints misfortune. As a result, the Rams are now a little over-valued on the road here as this line has been driven up to as high as a -4 on Los Angeles. The Browns already laid an egg in their Week 1 home game and they certainly don't want to do it again here. That said, after taking advantage of facing the Jets last week, Cleveland now is back home with renewed confidence and ready to atone for their season-opening disappointment in front of the Browns faithful. Note that Cleveland is 4-0 ATS their last 4 against NFC teams. Also, in games 1 through 4 of a season, the Browns are 8-1 ATS as underdogs when facing a team of B2B SU wins. The Rams are off B2B games against NFC opponents plus have another NFC game, versus Tampa Bay, on deck. Los Angeles is 15-24 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The Rams have failed to cover 10 of their past 14 non-divisional match-ups and, after catching breaks early this season (Panthers Newton is not right, Saints Brees hurt in first quarter), LA now runs into a healthy team out to prove their first home game was a complete fluke. Per my projections, the Browns will do just that! 8* CLEVELAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #481 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are a much better team than they have shown early this season. The key word there being team as, keep in mind, it is about much more than just Drew Brees. Sure his absence hurts but don't be surprised if you see a huge response from New Orleans this week and, certainly, we have line value on our side here. This line has gone from a pick'em range all the way up to a 5 and the Seahawks are off an upset win back east. This is not the greatest of situations for Seattle and yet many are backing them here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side. The Saints are on a 15-2 ATS run against NFC opponents with a win percentage of .667 or better. Of course that system fits here with the Seahawks undefeated on the season. Keep in mind Seattle has played an awful Cincinnati team and a Steelers team that lost their QB to injury early in the game. That is often tough for a team to overcome in the game in which it happens. The Seahawks are on a 1-6 ATS run when favored against an NFC South team. Look for the scrappy Saints to respond after they lost Brees early in their match-up at Los Angeles against the Rams last week. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #485 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - Certainly the Niners deserve some credit for their 2-0 start but they are taking on a Steelers team that, even without Big Ben, is certainly much better than their 0-2 record would indicate. Also, San Francisco's two wins have come against a Tampa Bay team that has won just 5 games in each of the past two seasons and a Cincinnati team that entered this season off 3 straight losing seasons. Now the 49ers take on a team that is annually a threat to make a run at a Super Bowl team. Trust me, I fully realize this Steelers team is not at the same highest level that it once was. However, catching nearly a full TD here with them in a desperation spot is something I won't pass up. I liked San Francisco coming into this season and I still like them now but they are simply over-rated at this point and I could see them getting upset here which is why I like having the big point so much. Coming off back to back road wins back east and with a bye week on deck, the Niners could get caught thinking they can coast at home here and they get caught already looking ahead to their early season bye. San Francisco entered this season 1-13 ATS the last 14 times they have been a favorite. Also, head coach Kyle Shanahan is 0-7 ATS at home when off a non-divisional game and facing an opponent off a SU loss. Also, Shanahan is 1-8 ATS at home off a game in which his team scored 23 or more points. The Steelers are 12-1 ATS as a dog against an opponent with a winning record. Head coach Mike Tomlin is 11-1 ATS as a road dog against a team off B2B SU wins. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants @ 4:05 ET - In week 1 of this season Tampa Bay's defense forced only 2 punts the entire game. In week 2 they allowed over 300 passing yards to Cam "His shoulder is trash" Newton at Carolina but the 4 scores for the Panthers offense were field goals not touchdowns. Give the Buccaneers some credit for that for sure but, off of that big divisional road win, I will not be surprised to see the defense struggle with a desperate Giants team whose offense has been better than their point totals would suggest. New York has averaged 420 yards of offense per game and also has done a great job of not allowing sacks and that has been with the immobile Eli Manning at QB. Now, Daniel Jones takes over at QB in week 3 and he is a much more mobile QB that also has a great "safety valve" in the form of RB Saquon Barkley. The issue for the Giants has much more to do with their defense than their offense to be honest. That is why I like the over so much in this match-up. Jameis Winston bounced back from a very disappointing home start in Week 1 with a respectable game at Carolina in Week 2. This week, Winston is happy to be back home and wants to make up for that embarrassing performance in the home opener. Facing the horrible pass defense of the Giants should allow him to do just that. Also note that the Bucs games are on a perfect 6-0 run to the over when coming off a Thursday night game. Giants games are 6-1 to the over when they are a off a home loss by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #464 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - Just prior to kick off this season the Eagles win total was 10 and the Lions had a 6.5 for their win total. I am just trying to give you a point of reference here when looking at how over-adjusted the line line on this Sunday match-up is. Philadelphia is HOSTING Detroit here too and they are a Super Bowl contender while the odds makers, as you can from the preseason win total, do NOT expect the Lions to even be a playoff threat this year. So far Detroit has an unimpressive tie at Arizona (blew HUGE lead over the Cardinals...yes THE Cardinals!) and then the Lions beat a Chargers team that is a quality team but lets give that some perspective too. LA, a Pacific Time team was playing a 10 AM game on their body clocks at Detroit and were off a win over an AFC playoff team (Colts) with another AFC playoff team (Texans) on deck. That was a horrible scheduling spot for Los Angeles and the Lions took advantage. But how impressive was the win? The Lions lost the yardage battle BOTH on the ground AND through the air but managed to notch a tight win. Now, because the Eagles have had some injury issues we're seeing the typical over-reaction of the marketplace. Philly, a legit super bowl quality team, is laying 4.5 points at home against a Lions team that won 6 games last season and, really, how great was the Detroit offseason? Also, the Eagles still have Zach Ertz (Carson Wentz favorite target) and Nelson Agholor (huge game at Atlanta) and though Alson Jeffery is still expected to miss, TE Dallas Goedert has a decent chance of playing this week and will be a pre-game decision depending on how warm-ups go. Philadelphia, under head coach Doug Pederson, is 9-2 ATS when they are at home hosting a team off a SU win. This line was as high as a -8 and the oddsmakers were aware of the Eagles injury situation as all these happened early in the Falcons game. That said the line is now down to a 4.5 from the 8 that it was. I'll take advantage and grab the added value with the short home favorite! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10 ET - Tough spot for ASU. I know on one hand they do have revenge against the Buffaloes since they lost to them last season. However, on the other hand, the Sun Devils are off an emotional come from behind win at Michigan State last week and they won the game in dramatic fashion. Give Arizona State credit for "finding a way" last week but also note that the Spartans play-calling on offense is horrific for a top tier Big Ten program that should have much better performance in that regard. Even with that, Michigan State still outgained ASU by nearly 200 yards. With Arizona State off an upset win and the Buffaloes off an upset loss at home, this one sets up well. Keep in mind, Colorado had beaten Nebraska the week before and that followed demolishing Colorado State in their season opener. The Buffaloes also have a bye week on deck and have a very dangerous offense that is going to test an ASU defense that is highly over-rated right now. Yes the Sun Devils have some great numbers on the season but I already mentioned Michigan State's horrible play-calling above and note that Arizona State's first two games were against Kent State and Sacramento State! The Sun Devils defense is going to be stretched out in this game like it hasn't been stretched yet this season and I expect the Buffaloes to give them trouble all game long. Look for Arizona State to drop to 6-12 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 10* COLORADO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Illinois Illini (+) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I know the Illini are not a very good football team but this is the perfect "flat spot" for fading Huskers and Nebraska has a penchant for underachieving in a spot like this. Note that the Cornhuskers are off a dominating home win over Northern Illinois. However, in their only challenging game this season they blew a big lead at Colorado and lost outright. Now, of course I am not saying that the Illni are on par with the Buffaloes (not at all) but I am saying I like having Illinois getting nearly two touchdowns with Nebraska coming off a big home win and with a huge home game versus Ohio State on deck! While the Cornhuskers were happy with their performance last week versus Northern Illinois, the Illini are coming off a very disappointing home loss to Eastern Michigan. Simply put, Illinois is in "response mode" here and they have averaged scoring 35 points per game this season. The Illini had allowed only 13 points per game in their first two games before their disappointing 34-31 loss to the Eagles. Look for the home dog to respond big here and the Cornhuskers get caught still celebrating last week's win over the Huskies plus looking forward to facing the Buckeyes next week. As a result, Nebraska is in an dogfight here and I expect the Illini to fall short by just a single score in this one. 8* ILLINOIS

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #375 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - Good weather expected in Austin this evening and I am looking for a ton of points in a game featuring two very potent offenses and two suspect defenses. Keep in mind the UT defense returned only 3 starters this season and the Longhorns D was much stronger last season and still allowed 38 points or more against Oklahoma (twice) and Oklahoma State and West Virginia. This season, Texas already allowed 45 to LSU. As for the Horns offense, they are averaging 43.7 points per game this season! The Cowboys won't be able to stop them but their own potent offense certainly should stay red hot here. OSU is averaging 49.3 points per game this season. The Cowboys are off a road win at Tulsa last week and Oklahoma State has gone 8-0 to the over their last 8 when they enter a game off a road win. Texas is 3-1 to the over in a home game with a posted total of 70 points or more. In other words, don't let the big number scare you. Also, the Horns, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games, are 19-8 to the over. Additionally, the Longhorns are 3-1 to the over as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Oklahoma State's defense returned only 5 starters this season from a unit that allowed 37.1 points per game over the final 10 games last year. The Cowboys already allowed 36 points to Oregon State earlier this season and this is now the toughest offense they have faced by far. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #320 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Pittsburgh is the kind of team that is very physical and likes to play "smash mouth" football and this is particularly true when you face them in their house. Yes, the Panthers are off a big game at Penn State last week but the positive they have going for them early this season is that Pitt has never left the state of PA. As for UCF, they are far away from home for this one and really aren't used to facing teams from Power 5 Conferences in back to back weeks. They hosted a Pac-12 foe (Stanford) last week and now face an ACC foe this week in Pittsburgh. The Panthers only have Delaware on deck and their fully focused on this game after getting blasted at Central Florida last season. By the way, the Panthers entered this season 7-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a team that is off a SU/ATS win the prior week. That system fits here as UCF blasted the Cardinal last week. The Golden Knights do have their AAC opener on deck and this is the first time this season they have to leave the state of Florida. Plus how good is this UCF team really? They've played Florida A & M, Florida Atlantic, and a normally strong Stanford team that truly seems to have fallen apart this season. Look for the scrappy home dog Panthers to keep this game much closer than many are expect. 8* PITTSBURGH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #317 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Indiana Hoosiers vs Connecticut Huskies @ Noon ET - The Hoosiers offense is ready to explode on their home field after being held to just 10 points last week. That tough performance was courtesy of facing a powerful Ohio State defense but now Indiana faces a Connecticut team that allowed 50 points per game last season! The Hoosiers need (and want) a huge win here before resuming Big Ten action next week. That said, Indiana will not take their foot off the gas in this one and they'll be piling up points all game long. Connecticut's offense averaged 22 points last season and 24 points the season before. The Hoosiers defense is their weakness and the Huskies are averaging 23.5 points per game this season and coming off a bye week. As you can see, UConn should put up some points here. As for Indiana, they had averaged 43 points per game in their first two games this season and they'll bounce back after being bottled up by the Buckeyes last week. 8* OVER the total in Indiana

Conference Clash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 9 ET - With this line having dropped to a solid painted 7 across the board as of early Friday morning it is "go time" with Boise State in this one. Air Force is off a huge effort on the road at Colorado last week in an emotionally charged OT win over the Buffaloes. Now the Falcons are in the 2nd of B2B road games while Boise State is enjoying the comforts of home. The Broncos are enjoying an entire month at home actually as they haven't been on the road since their season opening win over the Seminoles down in Florida at the end of August. Boise State has a bye week on deck before traveling to UNLV for their first game of October. From a situational standpoint, this one favors the Broncos in a big way. Also, even though Air Force would like to get payback for losing at home to Boise State last season, the fact is that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge and are coming off consecutive SU (and ATS) wins. That is the case here and I like the fact that the Broncos return 7 starters on defense this season, are doing a great job against the run this season, and also have done a solid job against Air Force's option attack the past two seasons. The Falcons have covered just 2 of their past 7 Mountain West road openers. The Broncos, as a home favorite of 7 points or less, are 9-3 ATS! This one has definitely dropped into their sweet spot and I especially like this after oddsmakers had opened this one up at nearly a double digit line! 10* BOISE STATE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - Big drop on this total as it is a divisional showdown in primetime action and the Titans have a history of shutting down the Jaguars offense. However, I look for this game to play out much differently as Jags QB Minshew (filling in for the injured Foles) has a big game but the Jacksonville defense struggles to stop RB Henry and QB Mariota. The Jaguars need to be aggressive on offense so they can keep the Titans defense guessing. The Jags can't be one-dimensional and Minshew has that "gunslinger's mentality" which, of course, can be nice to have with a play on the over. Of course the markets are pushing this one lower as a high percentage of last week's NFL games stayed under the total and there is a recent history of low-scoring games between these teams. However, note the following stats: Jacksonville over is 9-4 after allowing 14 points or less last game. The Jaguars over is 2-0 when a home dog of 3 or less points. The Titans over is 9-4 in Thursday games. Tennessee also is 11-3 to the over when off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. It was a tight loss for the Titans versus the Colts last week and Tennessee is also 10-5 to the over when off a tight loss of 3 or less points to a division rival. Both teams are off very tight divisional losses last week in which it was their offensive production that led to them falling short. That said, you know where the emphasis is going to be in this divisional match-up this week. 10* OVER the total in Jacksonville

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Tulane has a strong defensive line. However, the Cougars are well-coached (particularly on offense) and they also have a ton of talent at the skill positions. Houston will figure out ways to quickly get the ball in the hands of their play-makers and combat an aggressive Green Wave defensive line. Also, the Tulane secondary is where the weakness lies with their defense. That said, Houston will certainly test that as well. The Cougars are 1-2 SU on the season but the two losses were to Oklahoma and Washington State! Tulane is 2-1 SU on the season but their two wins were over FIU (CUSA school) and Missouri State (FCS school). Although the Green Wave did play (and lost) against Auburn, I feel the schedule has Houston as the more battle-tested team heading into this one. I also love the line move here. This one opened up as low as a 2.5 globally but is now up to as high as a 5.5 as of game day morning. I love the value with the road dog that possesses the stronger offense in this match-up. Keep in mind, Tulane's offense really sputtered it their only game against quality competition. I know the Cougars defense is an area of concern (again) this season but the Green Wave are getting a little too much respect here. Tulane is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they have entered a contest off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Houston is 7-0 ATS in the 1st of B2B road games and they are at North Texas next week. In addition to the combined 12-0 (100%) ATS mark I am happy to test here, note that the Cougars are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been on the road against Tulane. The Green Wave, when playing after a win by a margin of 21 or more points, are 1-5 ATS. Again, I am testing the aforementioned 12-0 combined ATS mark with a hungry road dog that should be in this game all the way and has a great shot at the upset. 10* HOUSTON

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - I am aware of all the injury issues here. Note that some of those are on the defensive side of the ball and that will help our cause here. After the unders cashed in 12 of the 15 games so far in the NFL this week, many will be gunshy about firing away on the over hiere but each game must be analyzed separately of course. The other games have no bearing on the outcome of the total in this game and I am expecting plenty of points. Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense are going to bounce back after last week's disastrous performance at home. Also, Trevor Siemian will surprise many with a good game. There is some talent around him at the skill positions and he has plenty of starting experience in his career. He is not some rookie being thrown into the fire. With Sam Darnold being out the Jets have had plenty of time to work Siemian into their plans for this Monday night match-up. He actually is going to surprise and be a good fit within this offense. However, about that Jets defense...they allowed a huge comeback by the Bills last week as this is a Jets D that allowed 28 points per game last week. Mayfield and Co will enjoy success here. The over is 4-1 Browns last 5 played on turf and 4-1 the last 5 times they've been a favorite and I look for the over to improve to 8-4 the last dozen times that Cleveland has been off a game where they were held to 14 points or less. The over is 7-2 when New York is a home dog of 7 or less points. Also, the over is 5-1 when the Jets are off a loss by a margin of 6 or less points. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #287 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 8:20 ET - With their loss at Minnesota last week, the Falcons are now on a 2-10 ATS run in non-divisional action. Now they host another non-divisional team this week as the Eagles are in town. Philadelphia, under coach Doug Pederson, is 5-1 ATS when off a divisional game and facing an opponent off a loss (both SU and ATS) in their prior game. That system fits here and, keep in mind, while the Eagles are off a gut-wrenching non-cover against the Redskins (allowed backdoor cover with just seconds left in game) the Falcons had no chance at Minnesota last week. Atlanta was a turnover machine in an inexcusable effort at Minnesota. The Vikings, led by perennial loser Kirk Cousins at QB, don't win big games but Atlanta gift-wrapped that one and something is wrong with the Falcons these days. Coming off another ugly preseason and then being ill-prepared for a season opener and all this on the heels of a 7-9 season last year. All is not well with Dan Quinn's group these days. Conversely, the Eagles (with a healthy Carson Wentz who was on fire last week once he got in rhythm) are a strong team that appears well-built to make another run at a post-season berth and are truly a Super Bowl contender again this season. By the way, the Eagles are 7-1 ATS in a game played after facing the Redskins in their prior game. Additionally, under head coach Pederson, Philadelphia is 3-0 SU and ATS against the Falcons. The Eagles are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will also be a difference-maker in this game as Atlanta's offensive line can not be trusted. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #285 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Chicago Bears @ 4:25 ET - It is safe to say that Broncos HC Vic Fangio knows a thing or two about the tough Bears defense he is facing Sunday. Fangio was the defensive coordinator in Chicago for the past four years before being hired as head coach of Denver. That said, I love the low total posted on this game because I am a classic contrarian. Yes, the Bears defensive struggle against the Packers in the season opener has the attention of everyone and that is keeping this total low. This is not a divisional game however, and is not even an NFC game, it is a non-conference match-up which features a Bears team chomping at the bit to get their offense going after scoring just 3 points last week at home against Green Bay. Keep in mind, the Raiders put up 24 points on this Broncos team on Monday. We're going to see some points in this one with Fangio knowing where the weaknesses (what few exist) are in the Bears defense and Denver will move the ball better here than many are expecting. But I don't see the Broncos stopping a Chicago offense that is much better than what they showed in that Thursday night opener. The Bears averaged 26 points per game last season and when off a game where they were held under 23 points (only happened 3 times) they responded by averaging 32 points per game in their next game. The Broncos, in the past two seasons, are 4-2 to the over when off a divisional game and 3-1 to the over when off a Monday night football game. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #283 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Saints barely beat the Texans last week at home but did outgain Houston by about 100 yards in the game. Also, could anyone blame New Orleans if they were perhaps looking ahead to this showdown with the Rams? The loss to LA that kept the Saints out of the Super Bowl will go down as one of the most controversial finishes ever in a playoff game. In any event, this week it is payback time and the Rams, despite last week's win, do have issues in terms of Super Bowl losers "hangover". They got manhandled by the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year and even though they won at Carolina last week it was not that impressive. They benefited from turnovers and keep in mind that this was against the same Panthers team that lost to the Buccaneers (yes those Bucs!) in Carolina to open up Week 2 NFL action. I am expecting the Rams to have a dropoff this season but early this season we're still getting value because it is not evident to the masses just yet that this LA team is set to have a dropoff. As for New Orleans, they're going to ride the hunger of last season's disappointing end result and of feeling cheated. A lot of emotions and positive energy for the Saints here and I'll take Drew Brees over Jared Goff any place any time. The Saints are 15-1 ATS when facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a non-divisional home favorite. I am grabbing the couple points being offered here and I expect a big road win. 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Washington Redskins (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys blasted the Giants last week in Dallas so they'll have no trouble here, right? That is the prevailing opinion of the marketplace on this game but I'll gladly grab the home dog. The Redskins put up a helluva fight against the Eagles last week in Philly. Yes they let a big lead get away in that game but being on the road makes a big difference. Also, with getting in the backdoor for the late cover, Washington is now 10-2 ATS in the underdog role in early season (games 1 through 4) divisional games. Of course the Redskins are again in that role here and I like the protection they gave to QB Case Keenum last week plus the way the defense played early. Washington just couldn't sustain it for the full sixty but now they are at home against a hated division rival and they've got another shot at the outright upset here, just like last season. The Redskins outgained the Cowboys by a net of 51 yards in their two meetings last year. Also, Washington did a good job of controlling the ground game and Ezekiel Elliott showed last week that he still has a ways to go after missing training camp. Washington is 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they've been a home dog against a team with a winning percentage of .601 or greater. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 1-8 ATS when off a game against the Giants. They have a recent history of struggling in their next game after battling with the Giants. That continues here. 8* WASHINGTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 8 ET - Nebraska is off an inexcusable loss at Colorado last week and that means they are going to come back home and put a beating on a foe that can't keep up. The Cornhuskers go from a road game against a Pac-12 team to now hosting a MAC team and this one is going to get ugly quick as Nebraska takes out the frustration of blowing a 17-0 lead against the Buffaloes last week. The Huskers have a lot to play for besides last week's loss too. Two years ago Nebraska hosted Northern Illinois and lost 21-17 as a double digit favorite. Of course that makes this a revenge spot for the Cornhuskers and note that the Huskies entered this season 0-5 ATS when they are off a non-conference game and now facing a team that is off a SU/ATS loss and playing with revenge. That is a 100% perfect situation that is in play here with the Huskers having revenge from the 2017 game plus coming off an outright upset loss at Colorado in OT last week. This is the final non-conference home game for Nebraska and they need a much better performance in their final tune-up before Big Ten action begins next week at Illinois. The Cornhuskers were unimpressive in their season opening win over South Alabama and then only played one good half at Colorado last week after that season-opening wake up call from the Jaguars. Now, after what happened last week with the OT loss to the Buffaloes, look for the Huskers to finally put it together for the full 60 minutes in this one. Prior to losing the last meeting by 4 points, the Huskers had beaten the Huskies by a combined 77 points in the two prior meetings! Remember Northern Illinois has a new head coach in Thomas Hammock and this is a 2nd straight road game for the Huskies. It is payback time and the Huskers are an angry bunch. The Huskies are walking right into a hornets nest in this one because the talent level disparity is too great and the home team is motivated by last week and by revenge. 10* NEBRASKA

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #160 Saturday 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 4 ET - As long-time followers know I am generally against the line moves and very rarely am on the same side as a move. This is one of those rare exceptions and I have been waiting for this match-up for a long time and will not shy away from it even with the line being nearly painted 14.5 across the board as of Friday evening. Michigan State didn't just lose at Arizona State last year, they lost the game on a late field goal after never trailing the entire game. Now they get their long-awaited shot at revenge and they get it on their home field while the Sun Devils make their first road trek of the season. Note that ASU has won just TWICE in their last 11 road openers! Okay, so Sparty gets the win but what about covering the large spread here? Couple keys to that. One is revenge as, because of what happened last season, the Spartans will NOT take their foot off the gas here no matter what the score is. Secondly, Arizona State is going to have a helluva time scoring on this Michigan State defense! When you put those two factors together you have great potential for an absolutely massive home blowout! I also like the fact that Michigan State really got their offense going in a big way last week against Western Michigan. Certainly facing the Broncos was a tougher challenge than the Sacramento State team that Arizona State struggled with last week. Not only did the Sun Devils have less than 100 yards of offense at the half, they didn't even get the game-deciding touchdown until under 5 minutes were left in the game! Spartans are going to have tremendous intensity for this game and it will get ugly. They have one of the, if not the, best defenses in the nation and their offense used the Western Michigan game as a tune up for laying the boom on the Sun Devils this week. 8* MICHIGAN STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #135 Saturday 8* Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Stanford got rolled 45-20 at USC last week and this game is a classic example of over-reaction by the marketplace. Now everyone is viewing the Cardinal as trash and as having no chance in this game against Central Florida. This has resulted in a big line move toward the Golden Knights and the result is solid value on the Pac-12 dog no one wants here. If you think the Cardinal aren't going to come to play after giving up 45 points last week to the Trojans you don't understand the mindset of a proud football team. The Cardinals aren't used to getting beat like they did last week. They were a field goal underdog in that game and it got ugly. They make up for that performance here. Central Florida's first two games this season were against Florida A & M and Florida Atlantic. Stanford, on the other hand, faced a Big Ten team (Northwestern) and then a Pac-12 foe (Southern Cal) in conference action last week. In other words, BIG difference in the quality of opponents faced. That is not being viewed properly by the markets here. Keep in mind, UCF lost a lot of starters from last season's defense also. This line is now in the 9 to 9.5 range and that is worth noting as Stanford is 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they have been a dog of more than 8 points. Also, though they have Oregon on deck, the Cardinal are actually a fantastic 12-1 ATS when they enter a game with the Ducks up next. Off last week's beatdown they bring a huge effort on the road and they certainly won't look past a ranked UCF team. 8* STANFORD

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #149 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - Tulsa's QB Zach Smith struggled in their season opener but it was at Michigan State and the Spartans have one of the best defenses in the nation. As expected, the transfer from Baylor bounced back with a strong game at San Jose State last week and I expect more of the same this week in the home opener for the Golden Hurricane. Yes, Tulsa is facing a solid team this week as they host Oklahoma State but the strength of the Cowboys is offense. The Golden Hurricane won't be able to stop the OSU juggernaut on offense but Tulsa's offense is good enough to hang within two scores (current line on this one is -14) and that means you have consistent scoring throughout this game. Oklahoma State allowed 32 points per game last season and they only return 5 starters from their defense and lost their defensive line. Tulsa's defense was better last year than they had been in recent seasons but they still allowed an average of 30 points and they now face a Cowboys team that has put up 59 points or more in EACH of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The weather forecast looks great for Tulsa on Saturday afternoon. OSU is already averaging 54 points per game and 567.5 yards per game so far this season. The over is 15-7 in Oklahoma State's last 22 games as a favorite. The over is 3-1 the last 4 times the Golden Hurricane were a home underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and each of those 3 games totaled at least 83 points. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #116 Saturday 8* Temple Owls (+) vs Maryland Terrapins @ Noon ET - The Terrapins are a popular choice right now because they blew out Syracuse last week and have looked great in their first two games. However, Maryland faced a very weak team in week one and then faced an Orange team in week two that was looking ahead to hosting Clemson this week. Sure some credit is due to Maryland but they're getting far too much credit now as they lay a TD on the road against a Temple team that is coming off a bye week and that throttled them last season. The Terrapins are 1-9 ATS the last 10 times they were off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Maryland does have a bye on deck but Temple's situation is even better as they are coming off a bye. Don't be surprised if the Terrapins come into this game overconfident after back to back blowout wins and knowing they have their Big Ten opener (Penn State) coming up after their bye week. Grab the big home dog. 8* TEMPLE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #103 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 6 ET - There is a chance of rain in the Winston-Salem area this evening. However, winds are expected to be 10 mph or less and it is the wind that is the biggest factor when it comes to weather having an impact on totals. North Carolina enters this game riding high after back to back wins which have included 4th quarter comebacks from an inexperienced QB whom is quickly growing up! There is a new atmosphere in the Tar Heels lockerroom as they have responded very well to the coaching changes coming into this season. That said, I look for the Demon Deacons to struggle to slow them down. However, Wake Forest will be able to move the ball quite well on a still questionable UNC defense. North Carolina gave up 34 points per game last season. Also, the Tar Heels allowed nearly 500 yards in last week's win over Miami. Wake Forest has averaged 34 points per game the past two seasons and they've also looked very strong on that side of the ball early this season as well. However, they allowed 33 points per game last season and also lost the majority of their starters from that defense. The Demon Deacons allowed 20 first downs to a bad Rice team last week. I love their offense here matched up against the UNC defense but I don't trust the Wake Forest defense. Likewise, the Tar Heels defense is still in a full-on rebuild mode and the Demon Deacons offense should continue piling up the points this week. 10* OVER the total in Wake Forest

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - With their failure to cover last week's game, the Panthers are on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Carolina's Cam Newton insists he is healthy but he continues to avoid throwing the deep ball. There are many questioning the health of his shoulder. The Buccaneers are also off a non-covering loss but statistically they should not have lost the game by 14 points. The difference in the game was two Bucs picks returned for touchdowns. With both teams off sub-par performances last week I like having the big dog in this spot on a short week. Carolina is looking to get into the win column in a back to back home game situation but the way Newton looks right now they will be in a dogfight just to win this game let alone cover the spread. I know Jameis Winston is off an ugly game for Tampa Bay but if you review his numbers through his career he has shown a knack for bouncing back after a disastrous game and certainly last week's game falls into that category. Look for him to be much better in week two. Carolina is on a 1-8 SU run and that includes losing 4 in a row at home. So not only are the Panthers being asked to win this game but also cover the 7 points. I just don't see that happening. The home team covered both match-ups last season but previously the road team was 7-1 ATS in the 8 meetings between these teams in the 4 prior seasons. In other words, consider last season an aberration and look for the ATS road dominance to resume. The Buccaneers allowed only about 250 yards last week and, despite the scoreboard result, have new life under head coach Bruce Arians. 10* TAMPA BAY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Houston Texans @ 7:10 ET - In the history of the NFL it is hard to think of many teams that feel more "cheated" entering a season than the Saints. Without a doubt, that infamous non-call when their receiver was "mugged" by a Rams cornerback was the difference in why Los Angeles went to the Super Bowl and New Orleans stayed at home. Now the Saints get the perfect chance to show the World what a great Super Bowl we could have watched last season had it been (as it should have been) the Saints against the Patriots instead of the snooze-fest we witnessed due to one of the worst Super Bowl coaching performances (thanks Sean McVay) ever seen. The point is that New Orleans comes into this game ready to flex their muscles in what, to them, is much more than just a season opener or home opener as this is a chance to show the entire NFL what they missed out on last February. I know the Saints are known for slow starts in season openers but this year's situation is about as unique as it gets and you're going to see an extremely focused and well-prepared New Orleans team on both sides of the ball as they have been waiting to get back on the field for 8 months since their unbelievable OT loss to LA in January. The Texans are a playoff team from last season but they're expected to be a .500 team this season and keep in mind they went 4-12 in 2017. The Saints have averaged a dozen regular season wins per game the past two seasons. They also have the home field edge here. That said, the ability to get New Orleans at less than 7 (plenty of 6.5 out there as of early Monday morning) is a great value. The Saints do have a negative here in that they have the aforementioned Rams on deck BUT, even with that revenge game looming, there is no way that New Orleans is going to overlook facing a playoff team in their home opener. The Saints have been waiting a long time to get rid of the bad taste of that "playoff ripoff" from January. Look for the Texans to drop to 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC opponents as the Saints improve to 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers beat the Patriots in December and they should beat them the December before as well. That 2017 game was a 3 point loss for Pittsburgh which would have been a cover given the line on this Sunday night game. However, this game is at New England which certainly makes a difference but I do feel the Steelers aren't getting enough respect here. This is still a quality football program that will actually prove to be better for getting rid of a couple of malcontents: Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. As for the Patriots, they recently lost their starting center (David Andrews) for the entire season. New England already was without the now-retired Rob Gronkowski. It is actually a bit humorous that the Patriots have now signed the aforementioned Brown but he won't play in this game anyway as his signing can't become official until tomorrow on Monday. The Steelers are actually 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road and EACH of those last FIVE victories have been OUTRIGHT wins. It would not surprise me to see the upset here as the Patriots demise begins this season. The Eagles put them in their place in the Super Bowl that followed the 2017 season but surprisingly the Pats made one last hurrah the Super Bowl that followed the 2018 season. I look for 2019 to begin the permanent decline for New England as truly everything fell into place for the Pats to get to the Super Bowl last season and they have lost some key components from last year's team.  The Patriots, as much of a juggernaut as they have been for so many years now, have shown some early season vulnerability. Last season they failed to cover 2 of their first 3 games and the season before they began 0-3 ATS in games played at Foxboro. In my opinion those trends will ring true again here in this early season match-up and the Pats will be in a dogfight just to win this game let alone cover it! 8* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - The Giants turned into an over machine as the season went on last year going 9-4-1 in their final 14 games. I don't see that "machine" being slowed down here either. The defense is very suspect still, just like last season, and they face a Dallas team whose HC Jason Garrett has been "called out" for conservative play-calling. The fact is that the Cowboys need to open up the playbook more and be a little more aggressive if they're going to truly get to the "next level". With Dallas hosting a Giants team possessing a weak defense, this is the ideal spot for the Cowboys to "open it up" and put on quite the display on offense. However, don't be surprised if the Giants are able to "trade scores" most of the way with the Cowboys in this one. Eli Manning has something to prove this season and the Giants have averaged 249 passing yards per game in their last 3 against Dallas. The Cowboys have scored an average of 29 points per game in their last 3 meetings with New York and they have the added spark of Ezekiel Elliott coming back just in time to be on board for Game 1 of the regular season. There were 85 passing attempts compared to 47 rushing attempts when these teams met to wrap up last season and that was a wild 36-35 game. This one won't be quite so "wild" but should total more than enough points for it to get over the reasonable number here. I mentioned the Giants over trend above and also note the Cowboys are 6-2 to the over in their past 8 home games. Expect more of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #456 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - Normally I don't lay big points in NFL. The key word in this case being "normally" as there are always rare exceptions. The Eagles should blast the Redskins on Sunday. Philadelphia is one of the top teams in the NFL and also enters this season with a chip on their shoulders. The Eagles are sick and tired of being questioned by naysayers about the fact Nick Foles is now with the Jaguars. Carson Wentz is their guy and the Eagles are loaded with talent surrounding him. As for the defense, lets not forget their secondary was ravaged with injuries last season. Again, Philly is tired about being questioned about their defense as they practically played defense last season with one arm tied behind their back as they were so limited by injuries. It is a miracle the Eagles went as far as they did last season considering all those injuries. This is a very tough spot for the Redskins as they face an Eagles team that has used them as a punching bag in recent seasons and that comes into this year very fired up about flexing their muscles and establishing dominance early. Washington is off back to back losing seasons and projected to be even worse this season. They're also breaking in a new QB on the road against a division rival in a hostile environment. As noted above, this is one of those rare situations where laying the big points is absolutely a quality option. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Philadelphia. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS the last 6 times they've been a favorite of 7.5 or more. In other words, don't let the big line keep you away! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - It looks easy, right? Take the home team laying a short number and you're "home free" as you cash in later at the betting window. Not so fast. The Vikings were down across the board last season statistically and didn't have a whole lot of areas to point to as to why. Also, their QB (Kirk Cousins) has an overall losing record in his career. As for the Falcons, they also are off a sub-par season but were done in by some key September injuries too. I like the weapons they have for QB Matt Ryan and also I'll take him any day of the week over Cousins whom I just don't trust at all in big games. Certainly this is a big game and I love having the 3.5 points with an Atlanta team that could be playoff bound this season. The Falcons have shored up their offensive line and I expect the defense, now healthier, to be much better under defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn. Both teams have plenty of hunger for this season after last year's disappointment but Atlanta also has some momentum after winning each of their final 3 games last season. The Vikings lost 3 of their final 5 games and, overall, had a very disappointing 2nd half of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) the past two seasons in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. An outright upset here would not surprise but I am grabbing the 3.5 points currently being offered as of very early Sunday morning. The Vikings are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games in which their line ranged from +3 to a -3. In this particular case the line is a 1/2 point outside that range but the reason I mention it is because it supports the fact that Cousins and his Minnesota teammates tend to fall short at the betting window in games projected to be a tight battle. This one certainly fits the bill in that regard and I am riding with Ryan and the underdog Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #369 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off easy wins last week as they faced easy opponents. That said, it is hard to say we know much about either team at this point since neither team faced a true test. However, what I do know is that Texas lost a lot of key players on both sides of the ball from last season and I felt coming into this season that some strong value would be available going against them early when they're facing a strong opponent. Certainly LSU fits into that category very well. In my mind, the Horns are still highly ranked in part because of what they did last season and whom their QB is. However, the Longhorns lost so much from last season's team. As for the Tigers I feel the best is yet to come and their time has arrived. Their offense got stronger and stronger as the season went on as QB Joe Burrow got more and more comfortable. Unlike Texas, LSU returned 8 starters on each side of the ball and this should be reflect in more early-season continuity as well. The fact this game is at Texas is helping to give us value as the Tigers would be a very large favorite if this game was at Baton Rouge. With LSU being on the road we've got a very manageable number to work with and I'll lay it! The Tigers are 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and also a long-term 4-1 ATS against Big 12 opponents. The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS the past two seasons in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 points. Texas lost too much from last season while the Tigers are much stronger than they were last season in my opinion. 10* LSU

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #349 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UCLA Bruins vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 4:15 ET - The Bruins are off a disgusting result at Cincinnati last week while the Aztecs are off a very ugly win over an FCS team last week. The result now is an expectation of very little points here. The fact is this total has been pushed too low and it is time to step in and take advantage. The biggest change you often see in a season is how teams respond in week 2 compared to week 1. Rest assured, both teams will look much better on offense this week than they did last week. At the same time, note that San Diego State is truly trying to change things up on offense this season and not be so run-dominant as they have been in recent years. They should enjoy plenty of success against a Bruins defense that was a weakness last season and also allowed over 400 yards to the Bearcats last week. As for the Bruins offense, that is supposed to be their strength under Chip Kelly and note that San Diego State has had to reload with a lot of new starters on defense. As for the UCLA defense they have issues with their front seven (particularly at linebacker) where they're dealing with some injury and suspension issues. The Bruins come in with extra rest as they are off a Thursday game and that is a situation that has seen them go 9-4 to the lover long-term. In terms of short-term trending, UCLA is 4-2 to the over when off a non-conference game. As for the Aztecs, they are 6-2 to the over long-term when off a game in which they allowed 6 points or less. In terms of short-term trending that is very relevant here as well, the over is 5-2 when San Diego State is off a game in which they allowed 14 points or less. 10* OVER the total in UCLA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 South Florida Bulls (+) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 2 ET - South Florida got obliterated by Wisconsin last week while the Yellow Jackets also got blasted last week at Clemson. The Bulls missed the mark by a mile and they'll be ready to respond here as, of course their offense is much better than what it showed in an embarrassing loss to the Badgers last week. As for Georgia Tech, the problem with their offense has a lot to with the system. The Yellow Jackets are changing things up this season and they're going to have growing pains as a result. I love fading favorites when they are going through changes and still very early in the implementation mode. In this case, after so many years running the triple option at Georgia Tech, pain comes with the change. South Florida has SC State on deck so there is certainly no lookahead. Even though the Yellow Jackets are playing this game with revenge, the bigger story with that is that they lost to USF by double digits last season even though they were a better team then. Truly the Jackets are going to struggle in this campaign with what amounts to a "transition year" for them. The Bulls got embarrassed at home as they were blasted right away in the first half. That is noteworthy here as South Florida is 8-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. As for Georgia Tech, they are in the same situation, but they are 1-4 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. USF has now lost 7 straight games but they were a double digit dog in 5 of those 7 games. Look for the Bulls to make the most of this "winnable" game opportunity. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 11 AM ET - This line has dropped from as high as a -7 down to a -4 as of Friday afternoon. Yes, Pittsburgh lost last week while Ohio won but there was a big difference in level of competition. The Panthers faced ACC foe Virginia while the Bobcats took on Rhode Island! That is a huge difference and speaking of differences, lets not forget the disparity between the MAC and ACC. Additionally, the Panthers also have the home field edge here. Simply put, this one has been bet down too low and now offers great value on the home favorite. Pittsburgh is well aware of the fact that they really need this game if they're to avoid an 0-4 start as they have very tough match-ups (Penn State and UCF) on deck! Both teams lost quite a bit from last season's respective teams but the Bobcats lost even more. The Ohio offense returns only 4 starters and they'll be exposed this week after taking advantage of a weak opponent last week. Conversely, the Panthers are the team taking advantage of a lesser foe this week as they take advantage of a step down in level of competition after facing a tough Virginia team last week. Last week the Bobcats faced a Rhode Island team that is an FCS school. This will the Ohio's first game against an FBS team this season and, the past 3 seasons they are 0-3 ATS in their first game of the season against an FBS team. 8* PITTSBURGH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Friday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Rice Owls @ 8 ET - The Demon Deacons have plenty of momentum after scoring late to beat a solid Utah State last week. Wake Forest has a quick strike offense and loves to play fast. Their average scoring drive last week was less than a 2 and 1/2 minutes. This presents a match-up problem for a Rice team that scored only 7 points last week. Yes that game was on the road and this one is at home for the Owls. However, Rice is actually a poor 1-6 ATS when they are at home following a game in which they scored less than 10 points. Also, last season the Demon Deacons were up 42-3 by halftime of their game against the Owls. Wake Forest then cruised to the 56-24 victory. That said, I like the value here with the Demon Deacons laying less points in this one because it is on the road. The fact is that, even though it is on the road, Wake Forest has edges all over the field and, just as was the case in last season's match-up, the Owls will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard. I also like the fact that the Demon Deacons failed to cover last week while Rice had an easy ATS cover. Now the roles reverse this week! 10* WAKE FOREST

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing this game with a chip on their shoulders and I don't see them being denied. After back to back losing seasons (a rare occurrence) Green Bay also had to look up in the standings at the Bears (another rare occurrence) as Chicago was one of the surprise teams of the NFL last season. This included a key late season win for the Bears over the Packers in Chicago and now it is payback time. In 21 starts against the Bears, Rodgers has a 16-5 SU record. Also, we're seeing this line move toward 3.5 so even a Packers loss by 3 points still gets us in the win column here. We don't even need the SU win that Rodgers has so often provided against Chicago. I like the fact that the Packers outgained the Bears in their two games combined last season even though Chicago covered both games. That is noteworthy as these teams have met 21 times in the past 10 seasons (1 playoff meeting) and NEVER in these 10 years has there been a 3-0 ATS streak in the series for the Bears. I don't see that changing here either. Look for the Packers new wrinkles in their offense under new head coach Matt LaFleur to keep the Bears defense off balance enough that it will have an impact on the outcome of this game. I like having Rodgers over the Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. Note that the Chicago signal-caller threw 5 INTs against 4 TDs in his final 3 regular season home starts last season. He and the Bears deserve congrats for their big season last year but they're sneaking up on no one this season and the Packers have had their number for a long time and resume that series dominance starting tonight. 10* GREEN BAY

ESPN Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #217 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET - I like the hiring of Scott Satterfield as the new head coach for Louisville and, eventually, he is going to lead the Cardinals back to success. However, this program is in a complete rebuild right now after last year's disastrous 2-10 campaign. Satterfield had great success at Appalachian State but let's go back to his first year there for comparison's sake. The Mountaineers started the season 2-8 in their first 10 games under Satterfield. Their opening game that season saw them get blasted 30 to 6. Satterfield had his work cut out for him then and the same holds true here. He is known as a strong offensive mind but they've had to simplify the offense this season for QB Jawon Pass. Mistakes were too prevalent last season and now the Cardinals open their new season facing a tough Notre Dame team that is anxious to finally have a chance to put last season's playoff beatdown (versus Clemson) behind them. The Fighting Irish have been waiting ever since January for someone to punch in the mouth. Now that "someone" is Louisville and the Irish are the better team all over the field in this game. They are so explosive on offense thanks to QB Book and they are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame will beat the Cardinals at the point of attack all game long and this one turns into a road rout. Louisville is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they have been an underdog. In games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points Notre Dame is 9-4 ATS the past two seasons. The Irish allowed just 18 points per game while the Cardinals allowed an average of 57 points per game their final 7 games of last season. 10* NOTRE DAME

National TV Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #215 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Houston Cougars @ 7:30 ET - The total is a big one but I like the fact that it has gone from the mid-80s earlier this week down to as low as a 79.5 as of early game day morning. That is giving us extra value in a game where I expect very few defensive stops. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen comes over from West Virginia and the Mountaineers had faced the Sooners in each of the past 7 seasons. The theme in those games was "shootouts" and now that Holgorsen is with the high-flying Cougars, I certainly don't see the "theme" changing! Each of the last 3 meetings between Holgorsen's Mountaineers and the Sooners totaled at least 84 points. Also, he couldn't stop OU throughout his tenure at West Virginia and OU scored 44 points or more in each of the last 5 meetings. Yes the Sooners have a new QB but their offense will be unstoppable against this porous Houston defense. The Cougars allowed 37 points per game last season and only return 4 starters on defense. Offensively Houston returns a ton of talent and averaged 44 points per game. The Sooners are hoping for big improvement on defense but it is going to take time. Keep in mind their new defensive coordinator did have "ups and downs" at Ohio State last season. That said, Oklahoma will still be winning games with their offense and their potent attack averaged 48 points per game last season. The over is 5-2 the past two seasons for the Sooners as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The over is 3-1 the past two seasons when the Cougars are an underdog. Oklahoma, against American Athletic conference opponents, has gone 9-1 to the over their last 10 games so they're certainly not known for "holding back" when it comes to scoring big and putting on a beat-down. The Sooners also are 8-3 to the over in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 so don't let this big number keep you away. This game could get close to triple digits! 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #186 Saturday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 4 ET - It seems like only yesterday when, here in Vegas where I live now, the first lines for CFB came out for small limit wagers. One of the big movers then (in late May) was on this game as the Cardinal were opened up as a double digit favorite but quickly got bet down to a -7. Now, as of the night before the game, the line is down to a -6 and it is "go time" for me on a game I have had my eyes on ever since the "false move" by the market 3 months ago. Why is the market mistaken here in my opinion? It is because they're looking at a match-up featuring a pair of teams that each won 9 games last season and felt that in an "even match-up" the big line was way off. However, the fact is that this is no longer an "even match-up" because the Wildcats are going to be vastly different from the 2018 team! Losing QB Clayton Thorson (now with the Philadelphia Eagles) has this Northwestern offense looking much weaker and the Wildcats also lost their leading receiver from last year's team. I know what you're thinking...Stanford also lost a lot from last year's team too. However, they have a strong QB in KJ Costello and his guidance for the Cardinal offense will be a key here as the Wildcats struggle to get acclimated to life without QB Thorson. Northwestern has gone 2-5 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. The Cardinal are a long-term 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) in August games and also enter this game on a 6-3 ATS run in their last 9 home games. Home field makes a difference here as the Cardinal get payback for a 10 point loss at Northwestern as a 10 point favorite to open up the 2015 season. Of course these players weren't here for that but the coaches were and David Shaw is in his 9th season with Stanford and that is the ONE AND ONLY time that the Cardinal have started a season with a loss under Shaw's watch. It is PAYBACK time here. 10* STANFORD

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #181 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - I am aware of the fact that North Carolina has a freshman QB starting here. However, it helps when you're facing a defense that gave up 424 yards per game a season ago. In fact, the Gamecocks could (should) have allowed more than the 27 points per game that they did given those numbers. Plus South Carolina faced some clearly out-classed foes like Akron, Chattanooga, and Coastal Carolina. Against quality foes, the Gamecocks actually allowed 33 points per game game and they'll have their hands full with a Tar Heels team that will continue playing an uptempo style under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Look for Longo to have immediate success here as he was very successful with Ole Miss. The issue for the Tar Heels is that it is going to take a long time to turn around this defense. North Carolina was among the worst in the nation last year as they allowed 448 yards and 35 points per game last season. They'll have their hands full facing an SEC offense led by a quality QB in Jake Bentley. Last year, UNC was a dog of 8 or more points 4 times. The over in those contests went a perfect 4-0. South Carolina enters this season having gone a perfect 3-0 to the over in their last 3 regular season games played away from home. One final note here too is that, though the Tar Heels have a new QB this season, nearly the entire remainder of the starters on offense returned this season. They'll be able to score well but, again, that defense can stop no one. 10* OVER the total in North Carolina

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #159 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oregon State Beavers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 10:30 ET - The Cowboys can light up scoreboards but struggle to stop teams. The Beavers also had one of the worst defenses in the nation last year. As bad as Oregon State's defense is Oklahoma State should score at will here. However, don't be surprised if the Beavers put up plenty of points at home in this one too. Oregon State has a respectable passing attack and moved the ball quite well through the air last season. The Cowboys biggest weakness, easily, is their defense. That said, this one turns into a shootout. Don't let the big number on this total scare you. This total was in the 75 range and has dropped down to the low 70s as of early morning on game day. The Beavers went 2-10 last season. They allowed an average of 49 points per game in those 10 losses. That means if this is just an "average" game for the Oregon State defense and if the point spread is correct here (Oklahoma State -14), you're looking at a 49-35 type game. Of course that is 84 points which crushes this total by double digits and that is what I am expecting here. A double digit cover. The Cowboys went 4-0 in non-conference games last season and averaged 49 points per game in those 4 victories. The over is 4-2 when the Cowboys are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Beavers non-conference games. Oregon State is without WR Bradford for this game but has plenty of talent at the skill positions to make up for that. What they can't make up for is injuries to some projected starters on defensive at linebacker and on the defensive line plus they have a starting safety listed as questionable for this one. The game turns into a track meet as the Beavers can't stop the Cowboys but the Oklahoma State defense struggles at times throughout this one as well. 10* OVER the total in Oregon State

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #133 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs UCLA Bruins @ 7 ET - The Bruins return a lot on both sides of the ball. That is likely good news for the offense which did progress as the season went on last year. However, the defense was abysmal last year so a lot of returnees is not necessarily a good thing. This is a revenge game for UCLA as they lost 26-17 at home against the Bearcats last season. To exact revenge the Bruins will have to do it with their offense. Yes, Cincinnati had great numbers on both sides of the ball last season but they head into this season having lost 3 of 4 starters from the defensive line. The offense returns a ton of talent from last season's potent Bearcats squad. Hence, the play on the over here. This total opened up in the 62 range but has fallen to the 57 range and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am taking advantage of the line move and playing the over in this one. Very nice weather expected in Cincinnati for this one as well. The past two seasons the Bruins played 6 games on turf and the over went 5-1 in those games. The Bearcats, as a home favorite of 7 points or less, have gone 3-1 to the over the past two seasons. In summary, I expect the Bruins to be much better in Chip Kelly's second year at the helm but I still don't trust their defense. Look for plenty of points in this one as the Cincinnati offense picks up right where it left off last season but the Bearcats D struggles some due to personnel losses in the trenches. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #291 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (-) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - This line opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move and laying the points here. Florida was 10-3 last season and that was head coach Dan Mullen's first season with the team. I am projecting the Gators to be even stronger now that it will be Mullen's second season at the helm. Mullen has been a head coach since 2009. As for the Hurricanes Manny Diaz, he has never been a head coach at any level of football. Yes, he had been the defensive coordinator for the Hurricanes under Mark Richt but being a head coach is still a much different task. While the Gators have experience at the QB position, the Hurricanes are starting a redshirt freshman. Jarren Williams is likely to struggle here against a talented Florida defense. Yes the Hurricanes defense also certainly commands respect but I like the talent level of the Gators (including on offense) and expect them to have some success putting points on the board. I give Mullen the coaching edge, the Gators the overall experience edge, and I like the fact that the Hurricanes are 7-9 since they were 10-0 and ranked 2nd in the nation back in 2017. It has been all downhill since then for the Canes and the Gators are off a 10-win season they are fully prepared to build on as well. The Hurricanes are on a 9-16 ATS slide the past two seasons. The Gators are 6-2 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. Look for the SEC to flex its muscles again in this battle with an ACC foe that is likely to endure some growing pains early this season as they adjust to Diaz at the helm plus an inexperienced quarterback. 10* FLORIDA

Super Bowl Side - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) vs New England Patriots @ 6:30 PM ET @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - One could argue that the Rams are lucky to be here. After all, that was the story after the NFC Championship Game and the blown pass interference call. However, lets not forget the luck of the Patriots either. Not only did they catch the West Coast Chargers on the East Coast for back to back weeks when they met in the Divisional Round, New England got the added benefit of facing arguably the worst playoff coach in the history of the NFL in the form of Andy Reid in the AFC Championship Game. There are so many mistakes he made in that game it would be too tiring and lengthy to list them all here but lets just put it this way: Rams head coach Sean McVay is at another level compared to Andy Reid. Yes, McVay is very young but I trust his decision-making many times over in comparison with Mr. Reid - known for great regular seasons and horrible playoff flops throughout his career. However, the Patriots luck didn't just stop with the opportunity of facing the Chiefs, they also won yet another coin flip and the way those offenses were moving late in the game do you really think the Patriots would have stopped KC had it been the Chiefs that won the coin toss in overtime? The point is that the Pats have had their share of good fortune to say the least and the fact is I feel strongly that the Patriots reign ended with the Philly Special in the Eagles impressive Super Bowl win over the Pats last season. Everyone and their brother is going to be on New England in this Super Bowl as the savvy veteran Bill Belichick looks to become the oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl while, arguably, the "inexperienced" Rams head coach McVay would be the youngest to ever win a Super Bowl. I feel the Patriots defense is a glaring weakness and the Rams defense doesn't get enough credit for how solid they are. Both teams are good offensively but one could argue Los Angeles has the more dangerous weapons and I am expecting Todd Gurley to bounce back big after an awful performance in the NFC Championship game. The extra time off will no doubt help him. Now, about those defenses. The Patriots defense allowed 26 points or more in 6 of their 9 road games. The Rams have allowed just 15.8 points per game in their last 4 road games. All 4 of those opponents were held to 310 yards or less. Conversely, New England has allowed an average of 387 yards per game in their 9 games away from home this season! I am fully expecting the upset here but grabbing the points should the underdog fall just short. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Super Bowl Total - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams (+) vs New England Patriots @ 6:30 PM ET @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - The over is 5-1 in the last 6 Super Bowls. The Patriots, with an improbable over in their Conference Championship Game at Kansas City, are now on a 7-1 run to the over in their last 8 playoff games. Remember that 5-1 Super Bowl over run includes the improbable over two years ago when the Patriots rallied and managed to send the game to OT in their dramatic win over the Falcons. Facts are facts and Patriots games, as long as Brady is on the field and Belichick is on the sidelines, are likely to continue to have a flair for the dramatics and that means plenty of late scoring. That said, with this total having moved down to as low as a 56 as of Tuesday, it was "go time" for me in this one. The Rams have played 4 games against AFC opponents this season. Those games averaged 63 points per game! The Patriots 4 games against NFC opponents saw them score an average of 30 points per game. Would a final score somewhere in the neighborhood of 33-30 or 35-31 or 34-28, when you consider the potency of these offenses, really surprise you? Me either...no surprise here...plenty of points with another wild playoff game involving the Patriots. 10* OVER the total in the Super Bowl

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #313 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET - Original talk about the weather for this game was temperatures near 0 degrees. However, the strength of the arctic surge of air stayed further east and north. As a result the game time temperature could be near 25 degrees for this one and may only drop to 20 during the game. Chilly? Yes. Unusually cold for football? No. Also, the biggest impact on a total is wind and that is not expected to be an issue here and there is no precipitation in the forecast either. All signs point to both the Tom Brady Patriots and Patrick Mahomes Chiefs being able to fully open up the playbooks in this one. Also, unlike last week these defenses are facing much bigger challenges this week. Last week the Patriots faced the Chargers playing the 2nd of back to back road games and the game was at New England. Likewise the Chiefs were at home off a bye week too and got to face a worn out Colts team playing the 2nd of back to back road games. Look for the offenses to prevail in this one as the over is 6-1 in the Patriots last 7 playoff games. The Chiefs were 4-0 to the over their last 4 games against teams with a winning record prior to last week's game against the Colts staying under the total. In other words, normalcy resumes this week in KC and you're likely to see a shootout in this one. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET - The Patriots are off a completely dominating win against the Chargers last week. However, that game was set up perfect for them. They were at home playing with an extra week of rest and facing a Chargers team traveling to the East Coast for a second straight week. Now the situation is much different as the Pats are on the road and facing a Chiefs team that will be playing a home game for the 5th time in their last 6 games! Only one time since an early December game at Oakland have the Chiefs had to leave Kansas City! The Chiefs lost at New England earlier this season but remember they won at New England the prior season and now they're finally getting the Patriots in Kansas City. That is certainly significant as the Chiefs were 8-1 SU at home this season and all 8 wins came by at least 3 points (the current line on this game as of Thursday night). New England went only 3-5 SU on the road this season and 4 of the 5 losses were by a margin of at least 7 points. The Patriots went 1-4 SU and ATS in games played on grass this season. Also, in road games with posted total of 49.5 points or more, the Pats went 0-3 SU and ATS this season! New England benefited this season, as usual, from playing in the weak AFC East and, in my mind, the Patriots dynasty ended when the Eagles got the best of them in the Super Bowl last season. This year, the Pats won't even get to the Super Bowl. It is the Chiefs turn! 10* KANSAS CITY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #311 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 3:05 ET - The Saints just beat the defending Super Bowl champs last week. Not only is that a big win to come down from in terms of the emotional high, New Orleans was quite fortunate to win that game. When the Eagles were up 14-0 and driving again a very ill-advised play call and poorly thrown ball by Philadelphia QB Nick Foles led to an interception that turned that game around. After the Saints locker room was blaring Meek Mill in the locker room after the game and making light of the Eagles Super Bowl win last year and that they've now "taken over", don't be surprised when they get knocked off their pedestal after just one week. I am well aware of home team's recent dominance in conference championship games. However, the Rams have won and covered 3 straight games and going on the road here actually helps Los Angeles remain focused and not over-confident. As for the Saints, they are on an 0-4 ATS run and over-confident here already talking Super Bowl, etc as New Orleans already beat the Rams here in the regular season as well. Lets not forget the Saints have not been as impressive down the stretch and the Rams get their revenge as they're firing on all cylinders at the right time. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #311 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams @ 3:05 ET - The Saints did next to nothing in the first quarter against the Eagles on Sunday. That said, they essentially gained all of their 420 yards of offense in the final three quarters of that game. Of course that projects out to 560 yards over four quarters. The point is that New Orleans is "feeling it" again on offense and I look for this game to turn into another massive shootout between these teams. The last two times these teams have met in New Orleans the average total points scored is 75. Keep in mind the Rams have scored 29 points or more in 14 of their 17 games this season. Los Angeles is averaging 32.8 points per game on the season and do you really think the Saints aren't going to match the Rams score for score here? The points is that both teams are likely to get into the mid-30s here and that is why, though this total may seem very large, the odds makers were fully justified in setting this total in the mid-50s. There will not be many stops in this game. The Rams will be forced to the air because the Saints run defense has been solid. The Saints love going to the air against LA as they've had 346 passing yards each of the past two times they've hosted LA. The point is that both teams will be airing it out early, often, and throughout this game. Of course plenty of passing is great for an over and the Eagles Foles location last week was off on key passes or the Eagles would have scored a ton. Don't look for the Rams Jared Goff to miss those opportunities. I was not impressed with the Saints secondary. At the same time, New Orleans has proven time and time again they can throw on the Rams. Los Angeles enters this game having gone over the total in each of their two prior games with an average of 66 points scored per game. The Saints are on a 12-4 run to the over in playoff games even with last week's game versus the Eagles staying under the total. The high-scoring trend resumes here as the Saints gameplan will be much different than it was against the Eagles defense. This is an entirely different match-up and both offenses will be attacking downfield early and often. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:40 ET - Though they would deny it, there certainly were some questionable play calls (one in particular) in terms of the Saints running up the score when they met the Eagles in mid-November and crushed them 48-7. That loss easily could have sent Philadelphia into a tailspin but, instead, they "rallied the troops" and made the playoffs. Keep in mind they had to beat the Rams in Los Angeles just to get here. Then they won on the road at Chicago last week to open up the post-season. Just like the Rams game, the Bears game was another game where the Eagles had "no chance" and yet prevailed. Once again this week the Eagles have "no chance" against the Saints. Of course this is laughable. These are the defending Super Bowl champs. Philly is again building up confidence with Nick Foles at QB while the secondary which has been so injury-depleted all season continues to grow with confidence thanks to the continuity of more and more playing time together during this late season run. Keep in mind the Saints had a great season BUT their high-flying prolific offense truly peaked with the aforementioned blowout "rub salt in the wound" over the Eagles in mid-November. Since then New Orleans has averaged only 299 yards per game. I did not mis-type! The almighty Saints offense has averaged just 299 yards per game since ripping the Eagles to shreds on November 18th. In 3 of the games the Saints were held to 14 points or less. They do have the rest edge here of course and should win this game but I don't see the win coming by more than a TD and I truly feel the Eagles have a great shot at the upset win. This is a huge revenge game for the defending champs who took the worst beatdown ever for a SB champ at the hands of these Saints. It is payback time. Keep in mind, the Eagles are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Saints went 0-3 ATS this season when a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points and 2 of those losses were outright upsets. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #305 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1:05 ET - Of course it will be cold in Foxboro on Sunday but the winds will be rather light and no precipitation is in the forecast. That said, both offenses will be able to operate freely and fully in this one and I am expecting plenty of points. The Chargers are 7-2 to the over as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Patriots are 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 playoff games. New England is also on a 4-1 run to the over when coming off a bye week. Keep in mind this total is only in the 47 range and the Los Angeles has averaged 26.5 points per game in road games this season. Also, the Pats have averaged 33 points per game in home games this season. The Chargers have scored at least 23 points in 8 of their 9 road games this season and, keep mind, the Patriots are favored by 4 in this game. The point is that if the Chargers just have a "normal" game and New England does what they're supposed to here and continues their high-scoring ways at home, this game flies over the total. The Chargers got a bit of a break last week with facing a very inexperienced QB on the road. Note that in their prior road games against quality teams with quality QBs Los Angeles allowed an average of 27.5 points per game. Those games were @ Pitt, KC, Sea, and the Rams. The Patriots D rates in similar fashion as they take advantage of facing weak foes but have struggled against stronger offenses this season. That said Philip Rivers and Co can't be counted out here in the same way that Tom Brady and Co should have a huge game too. In other words, plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in New England

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #304 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Cowboys are set up to get pummeled here. While it has been a great run for Dallas and has rejuvenated Cowboys fans everywhere, Dallas has covered just once in their last four games. The point is that they're a bit over-valued by the betting markets over the past month and that has continued here. To be able to get the Rams at a -7 is a tremendous value. Keep in mind, Los Angeles has a significant rest edge here and the Cowboys have expended a lot of energy in back to back weeks as they barely squeaked by the Giants at the Meadowlands two weeks ago. Then last week it was post-season time of course and Dallas barely eeked out a win over the Seahawks. The Dallas offense, on the season, has averaged only 324 yards per game on the road. The fact is that the Cowboys have been a very lucky team this season and also have got a ton of help from the refs in tight games / crucial situations. I tell it like it is folks and while that also builds up momentum, it also leads to being over-valued when facing a VERY high-quality foe and that is certainly the case here with the Rams. Keep in mind, LA has averaged 37 points on 453 yards per game in home games this season. Remember the Cowboys 324 yards per game figure above, Dallas has averaged just 17 points per game on the road this season. That is a 20 point differential between these teams and yet the line here is a -7 and it is Los Angeles with the rest edge. This is VALUE! Look for Dallas to drop to 0-4 ATS in their last 4 January games while the powerful Rams improve to a potent 3-0-1 ATS when coming off a bye week. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:35 ET - The Colts are on a great run but they now run into the #1 seed in the AFC. Not only did the Chiefs certainly earn that #1 seed, they also earned the bye last week and home field edge. That means a lot here. Kansas City is rested and ready plus their defense was much stronger at home than on the road. For the season the Chiefs potent offense averaged 35.3 points per game but their much-maligned defense also allowed just 18 points per game at home. As strong as the Colts run has been, lets not forget that they've averaged only 19.5 points per game their last 4 road games. Simply put, Indianapolis won't be able to keep up with the potent Chiefs in this one. The Colts are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC West opponents. Also, Indianapolis is a long-term 9-15 ATS in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. The Chiefs went 10-2 SU (and 8-4 ATS) this season versus AFC foes. The Colts had dominated this series prior to Kansas City winning the most recent match-up. Also, the Chiefs (and head coach Andy Reid) are known for their playoff struggles. However, this team is different with Mahomes at the helm and with the play of the defense in home games as well as the rest factor, I do not see the Chiefs being denied here as they make up for a blowing a huge half-time lead in last season's playoff debacle. The Chiefs went 7-1 at home this season and only one of those 7 wins came by a margin of less than 7 points. 10* KANSAS CITY

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #151 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Alabama Crimson Tide vs Clemson Tigers in National Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA @ 8 ET - High temperatures near 60 today with no precipitation and winds not expected to be an issue either. That said, while I respect both of these defenses I respected the explosiveness of each of these offenses even more. The Crimson Tide averaged 47.7 ppg on 527.6 ypg this season. The Tigers averaged 44.3 ppg on 530.4 ypg this season. Even though Clemson scored "only" 30 points against Notre Dame in the Semi-Final, the Tigers gained 538 yards in that game. Also, prior to that game Clemson's previous 8 games saw them average 50 points per game. If we get each team to 30 points here, which in my mind is absolutely likely, we have a guaranteed winner. Alabama scored 45 points on 528 yards of offense in their win over the Sooners in the Semi-Final. The Crimson Tide scored at least 29 points in 13 of their 14 games this season. With the line move on this total from low 60s to upper 50s, we've got additional line value here. Look at it this way too, the Tigers have never been held below 27 points this season and the Tide were only held below 29 points once. The point is that even if BOTH of these teams had one of their worst night offensively this game is likely to go over. The fact is, with the momentum these teams have heading into this one and the fact they know each other well and know how to find the holes in the D (last two Championship meetings averaged 75.5 ppg), I expect plenty of points in this one. Clemson has scored at least 27 in every game this season and Alabama is about a 6 point favorite here. That tells you at least 60 points LIKELY in this one! Yes, both teams have solid defenses but of course each facing very explosive offenses in this one and though game may start a little "slow" look for it quickly to turn into a game filled with huge plays from each of these teams offensive starts. 10* OVER the total in National Championship Game

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 4:40 ET - Be careful what you wish for. The Bears decided it was better to face the Eagles than the Vikings. Chicago got a big win at Minnesota last week and that kept a division rival out of the post-season and welcomed Philly to town. However, was that really a smart move? Would you rather face Kirk Cousins (a QB known for NOT being able to get the win in key games) or Nick Foles (Super Bowl MVP and absolutely red hot right now)? The fact is that I feel strongly that last week's Bears win that allowed the Eagles into the playoffs and stamped their invitation to Soldier Field is ultimately going to spell the demise of Chicago. Yes, I am grabbing the points here but I expect an outright victory for the Eagles. Make no mistake about it the Bears defense has been great this season. But Philly has positive history in recent meetings with Chicago and Alshon Jeffery (former Bear) is poised for another huge game and has become a key target for Foles. Also, Golden Tate (former Lion) has seen plenty of the Bears secondary in his recent seasons matched up against the division rival. Of course Darren Sproles being healthy is another key catalyst for the Eagles offense as the veteran has incredible quick play capabilities and it forces defenses to NOT be able to focus on just TE Zach Ertz (100+ catches this season) coming across the middle. Back to the QB situation, Foles ribs are only bruised. He will be fine here. No disrespect intended but just be honest with yourself here. Would you rather have Mitchell Trubisky leading your team or a Super Bowl Champion QB whom completed 25 straight passes before exiting last week's game with bruised ribs? The Bears defense has been great this season but there is something magical again (just like last season) about this Eagles team as certainly they were counted out by many when they dropped to 6-7 after that devastating (and ref-impacted) loss to the Cowboys. On the season the Eagles played a tougher schedule than the Bears. This line is offering tremendous underdog line value. The Bears are 0-6 SU (and 1-5 ATS) their last 6 against NFC East foes. The Eagles are 11-4 SU (and 10-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. They are hot again, Foles is feeling "it" again, and this team is truly feeling "it" again and also has had a chance to heal up some in their secondary. Keep in mind that is their biggest weakness (due to injuries all season long) but their defensive line (and offensive line for that matter) is one of the best in the game. Trubisky is not going to have much time to beat the Eagles downfield. They just won't give him time. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 1:05 ET - Give the Ravens credit for their big road win at Los Angeles last month. Certainly that road victory is going to have many backing Baltimore at home in this match-up. However, as per usual I am going contrarian and going with the Chargers in this match-up. Keep in mind that game at LA was played when the Chargers were in a divisional sandwich situation. They had just beat the Chiefs AT Kansas City and had another big divisional ROAD game on deck. In other words it was a definite flat spot for Los Angeles. Of course it goes without saying that the Chargers are NOT going to be flat here and I'll take Philip Rivers over Lamar Jackson at QB in a playoff game anytime anywhere. Keep in mind the Chargers are 7-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and their last 3 wins came at Denver (not an easy place to play) and Kansas City and Pittsburgh. That is no small feat! As for the Ravens, they wrapped up the season going 6-1 after going 4-5 prior to their bye week. However, Baltimore's wins (other than against the Chargers) came against a slate of sub-par teams! The Ravens other 5 wins came against teams with a combined 29-50-1 record. NONE of those 5 teams finished the season with a winning record. The Ravens are 4-8 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more consecutive games. In Sunday's match-up look for Baltimore to drop to 4-8 ATS on the season in games in which they are a favorite. The Chargers fully fit the definition of a "live dog" here! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Saturday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Just a couple days ago this line was very nearly a pick'em and now the Cowboys are inching closer to being a 3 point favorite as of early game day morning. With all due respect to the Cowboys, the Seahawks have some key edges here. First off at head coach I would take Pete Carroll over Jason Garrett any day of the week. Secondly at quarterback, I certainly like having the veteran leadership in crunch time of Russell Wilson over the talented but still learning Dak Prescott. Keep in mind too, when Prescott and the Cowboys have to play from behind, things become particularly problematic for them as Prescott seems to press and get rattled. The Cowboys are 2-9 SU in their last 11 playoff games. Certainly they do not have a good history while the Seahawks are a PERFECT 6-0 their last 6 Wild Card playoff games and 4 of those have been in the Pete Carroll era. Overall, under Carroll, the Seahawks are 7-3 in playoff games their last 10. This season Seattle has failed to cover just ONCE in NINE games with a line between +3 and -3. By comparison, the Cowboys have only 3 ATS win in NINE games with a line in that same range. That said, having the points here sure could prove handy though I do expect an outright upset win for the Seahawks! Seattle is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus NFC East teams. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS their last 4 versus teams with a winning record this season. Dallas has covered just 2 of their past 7 wild card round playoff games. The turnover battle has been won 3-0 in favor of the Seahawks in each of the past two meetings and look for that to be a key again here as Carroll has his team ready and the Cowboys make the crucial mistakes again. 10* SEATTLE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Saturday NFL 10* Top Play Houston Texans (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:35 ET - When these teams met AT Indianapolis earlier this season the Texans were a 1 point favorite on the road. Given that, when they met later in the year in Houston a line of -7 on the Texans would not have surprised. However, that was a revenge game for the Colts and Houston ended up only at -4 and Indianapolis got the outright upset. But now it is the Texans with revenge and they are at home and it is playoff time and yet a line that very easily could have been -7 earlier this month (given the above) is now a PICK'EM! Of course the reason is that Andrew Luck and the Colts have been red hot. However, let us not forget that in road games against playoff teams, Indy went 1-2 and was outscored by a combined 79 to 64 in the 3 games - win at Houston, and losses at Philly and New England. As for the Texans at home against playoff teams, they did beat the Cowboys and had the one loss to the Colts. Overall at home this season Houston has won 6 of their last 7 games with the lone loss to Indianapolis. It is payback time here. The Texans are 5-1 SU the last 6 times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Colts are 1-4 SU the last 5 times they've been a road dog of 3 points or less. With the current line on this game showing Houston as low as -1 point favorite, a price range of -115 to -120 is currently available on the money line in a number of books and I look for the Texans strong play at home to continue. 10* HOUSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #801 Eastern Washington Eagles (+) vs North Dakota State Bison @ Noon ET in FCS Championship Game @ Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX - The Bison are looking to win their 7th title in the last 8 seasons. However, this will be the final game for North Dakota State head coach Chris Klieman as he accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State - replacing Bill Snyder home finally retired. This could be a bit of a distraction for the Bison no doubt. While they are the better team defensively in this match-up, the Eagles are arguably the better offense and grabbing the big points with Eastern Washington is the way to go. The Eagles have averaged 540 yards per game compared to 470 yards per game for the Bison. Eastern Washington QB Eric Barriere has stepped in and been fantastic (24 TDs, 7 INTs) after starting QB Gage Gubrud got hurt after just 5 games. The point being that the Eagles have been even better since the injury to Gubrud. Though the Bison have the huge experience edge in Title Games and have each of their last 6 appearances, the Eagles did win their only other appearance and it was here @ Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX in 2010. Considering the possible coaching distraction as well as the huge points that are offered, North Dakota State (currently as high as a 16.5 point favorite) are over-priced here. Yes the Bison have rolled through the playoffs but that has resulted in an inflated line here and, don't forget, the Eagles offense is so potent it certainly has backdoor cover potential (should that be needed) but I expect them to hang in tough throughout this game. 10* EASTERN WASHINGTON

January Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #278 Tuesday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Texas Longhorns in Sugar Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, LA - The Bulldogs are out to prove they belong in the CFB Playoffs and I expect they will do just that. Sure Georgia is disappointed about their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and the fact that kept them out of the Playoff. However, they've had a full month to get over that and they are out to prove they still should have gotten the call for the CFB Playoffs. In my mind, it already has been proven. While Georgia played Alabama very tough in the SEC Championship Game (and truly should have won) and also lost last year's CFB Championship to the Crimson Tide in OT, let's talk about Oklahoma for a second. Yes, the same Sooners team that beat these same Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game and very nearly rallied to beat the Horns in their annual Red River Rivalry Game during the regular season got absolutely annihilated by the Crimson Tide in the Bowl Playoff Game. The point is that just like Oklahoma getting smashed by Alabama, I feel another Big 12 team is going to find out they don't match up well with an SEC powerhouse either! The Bulldogs, in my mind, are right up there with Alabama and Clemson as the top 3 teams in the nation while Texas finished up the season going 3-3 SU in their last 6 games. The 3 wins for the Longhorns came against 3 Big 12 teams with a combined record of 16-21 this season. Texas allows nearly 100 yards more per game than Georgia and the Bulldogs ground game averages nearly 100 yards more rushing per game. UT enters this game on a 2-6 ATS run. The Bulldogs went 6-1 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and are a long-term 7-1 ATS in games in which they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Blowout alert! 10* GEORGIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #275 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Washington Huskies @ 5 ET in Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA - As of 7 AM ET the forecast is calling for winds near 15 mph for this game. Originally they had been calling for winds to drop to near 10 mph for this game. Of course as we all know, Mother Nature can play hell with weather forecasts from time to time but even if the winds are near 15 mph, I am not going to shy away from a situation that I had circled as one of my favorite totals of the post-season when the bowl lines first were posted. My gut feeling is that Huskies senior QB Jake Browning is going to have a huge game here. Yes, he is unlikely to ever "stick" as an NFL QB but he certainly could impress all eyes that are on him with a big game here and the Buckeyes defense has shown plenty of weakness throughout this season. Ohio State allowed 240 passing yards per game this season and also allowed an average of 217 rushing yards per game their last 3 games. The strength of the 2018 Buckeyes was offense and that is the other key to this play. I know Washington has strong numbers on defense on the season but Ohio State scored at least 45 points in each of their final 3 games this season. They are hot at the right time and are going to give the Huskies defense a lot of trouble all game long. Both of these offenses averaged about 180 rushing yards per game this season and the Buckeyes passing attack averaged 367 yards per game! The over is 5-0 in the last 5 Rose Bowls and I see no reason for that trend to come to a halt today. 10* OVER the total in Rose Bowl

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #272 Tuesday 8* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 1 ET in Citrus Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - Penn State head coach James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he came to the Nittany Lions beginning with the 2014 season. Of course the Commodores are an SEC team and Franklin has some extra familiarity with Kentucky as a result. In fact Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops began his career there in 2013 and Franklin's Vandy team beat Kentucky by 16 points in their lone meeting. Another double digit win is what I expect in this bowl game for Franklin's Nittany Lions. Note that Stoops has a losing record overall and has gone 0-2 in bowls while Franklin has enjoyed great success with Penn State and is also 3-1 ATS in bowls. Kentucky has a solid defense but their weakness is offense and the Wildcats simply won't be able to keep up with the Nittany Lions here. Also, when playing outside the SEC, Kentucky tends to be overvalued. The Cats are 3-11 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. As for PSU, they are 19-2 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. While the Lions enter this bowl game having won 3 straight games, Kentucky wrapped up the season on a mediocre 4-3 SU run and went an ugly 2-5 ATS in those game. 8* PENN STATE

Bowl Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #267 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas A & M Aggies vs NC State Wolf Pack @ 7:30 ET in Gator Bowl @ Everbank Field in Jacksonville, FL - The Aggies points per game numbers are somewhat inflated by the 7 OT thriller versus LSU that wrapped up the regular season. However, even factoring in just scores through regulation time, Texas A & M averaged 30.6 points per game this season. As for NC State, again factoring in their lone OT game (A & M had two this season), the Wolfpack averaged 35.1 points per game on the season. NC State scored at least 23 points in every single game this season except their loss to Clemson. But of course the Tigers are playing for the national championship next Monday and the A & M defense is nowhere close to the level of a Clemson. The point is that if the odds makers are correct (as they so often are) and the Aggies win this game by 7 points and NC State scores their MINIMUM (23) that they have all season we're talking about a 30-23 game. Again, this is a MINIMUM in my mind and that total of 53 points gets us very close to the number currently posted on this total. I feel strongly that NC State will be around "only" their average in this game and that is 35 points, and keep in mind that average was brought down some by facing Clemson. If Wolfpack hit their average and Aggies win by 7 (as odds makers expect) we're talking about a total in the mid to upper 70s here! Note that NC State is a long-term 14-5 to the over in neutral site games. Also, the Wolfpack are 10-3 to the over in non-conference games. The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 to the over in neutral site games the past two seasons. Look for more of the same here. 10* OVER the total in the Gator Bowl

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #264 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 3:45 ET in Liberty Bowl @ Liberty Bowl Stadium in Memphis, TN - I love taking the undervalued 6-6 team in a spot like this. Of course the Tigers are a big favorite as they are 8-4 and play in the SEC. However, not enough respect is being given to a Cowboys team that has a very dangerous offense. In fact, the Oklahoma State offense is the exact type of offense that makes a team a threat for a backdoor cover should one be needed here. That's because the Cowboys can score in a hurry. I also like the fact that OSU has gone 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) in non-conference games. Additionally, the Cowboys are on a 8-2 ATS run (including 7 outright upsets!) as an underdog! Keep in mind, the underdog is on a PERFECT 7-0 ATS run in Oklahoma State's last 7 games. The Cowboys beat West Virginia and Texas during that stretch plus lost by just a single point as a 3 TD underdog against Oklahoma! As for Missouri, the Tigers lost to Kentucky and South Carolina plus lost by 2 TDs to Georgia and 4 TDs to Alabama. The point is that, even though Missouri is 8-4 this season, they did struggle against quality opposition. That said, I am comfortable challenging them to win this game by double digits. Missouri is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) when playing with 2 or more weeks between games. Also, the Tigers long-term run in December games is an ugly 4-11 SU (3-12 ATS). Look for those trends to continue here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #321 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Rain is expected to move in during this game but it will start out light and, of course, the timing on these things is always questionable. The key factors though from a weather standpoint are mild temperatures in the 50s and light winds. Also, if the rain pushes back on the timing just slightly, it may only be light rain during this game. Either way the light winds mean the full arsenal of the playbook is available for each offense. Titans QB Marcus Mariota is officially listed as questionable for this game but I don't see him missing this "win to get in" game that is a battle for a playoff spot. As for the Colts, Andrew Luck and Company have been on fire so I am expecting plenty of points in this one. Indianapolis is known for giving the Titans defense trouble as the Colts have averaged 26.8 points per game in their last 5 games against Tennessee. The Titans have averaged 31 points per game in their last two home games versus the Colts and both of those flew over the total and I expect a similar result here! Tennessee enters this game having averaged 28.8 points per game in their last 4 home games. Indy has had just one ugly showing on the scoreboard in their last dozen games. That was a shutout loss at Jacksonville but in the Colts other 11 games dating back to Sept 30th, Indianapolis averaged 30.9 points per game. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Colts games with spreads in a range of +3 to -3. Also, the Titans are a long-term 26-13 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less! Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the Titans last 6 games. This total has already moved to 44.5 in a lot of spots and note that the Colts are a long-term 10-2 to the over in road games in which Indianapolis is a favorite of less than 6 points and the O/U is 44.5 or more. Look for that impressive record to improve to 11-2 to the over when all is said and done in this one! 10* OVER the total in Tennessee