NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 42 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - This total has plummeted. The tropical storm approaching Florida is in the news but that is still a few days away. That said, the big reason for the drop here is that the Bucs have concerns at the WR spot. Evans is suspended for this game and Godwin is out with an injury. I do expect Julio Jones to play and QB Tom Brady (finger) also has been given the all clear for this one. Gage and Perriman and Miller all expected to be available at WR too for this one. Also Cole Beasley has been activated from the practice squad to the roster and he caught 82 passes EACH of the last two seasons for the Bills. Everyone excited about the Packers defense after they shut down Bears last week but the Chicago offense is currently putrid. The week before the Pack gave up nearly 400 yards and allowed 23 points at Minnesota. Yes that is the same Vikings team the Eagles just held to 7 points on Monday night. As for the Bucs team they have faced a dysfunctional Cowboys offense and a Saints offense with a long-term inconsistent QB (Winston) at the helm. Now the Bucs D faces Aaron Rodgers! This total is a 42 and we are talking about Brady versus Rogers. I see more points being scored than many are expecting here. Green Bay's offense was done in by turnovers in week 1 and then in week 2 they piled up 27 points in first half before taking their foot off the gas in the 2nd half and the Bears defense is solid. These teams are offering us great value on the low total here because they each have had B2B unders to start the year. 10* OVER 42 in Tampa Bay

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Being a contrarian in the NFL has served me very well through the years. I love this spot for the Colts. They just lost at Jacksonville in embarrassing 24-0 fashion. This was after an embarrassing tie at Houston in which they outgained the Texans by over 200 yards but still did not win the game. Now Indianapolis plays their first home game of the season and they are catching 5.5 points against a Chiefs team off a very lucky win. Kansas City got the non-covering win versus the Chargers last week but were outgained, even though at home, by nearly 100 yards! The Chiefs truly only won that game because of a 99-yard interception return that was essentially a 14-point swing on the scoreboard. Now we get line value this week as a result. The 2-0 Chiefs at the 0-2 Colts. Looks like a no-brainer, right? No, this is the NFL and "on any given Sunday" holds very true in many games each and every week. The Colts are much better than they have shown so far and the Chiefs piled up yardage against a bad Cardinals defense in week 1 but then struggled quite a bit against a real defense in the form of the Chargers last week. Keep in mind, statistically the Colts have been much better on both sides of the ball then the point totals show. Grab the home dog and I am expecting an outright upset here but will grab the points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +5.5

CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers -16 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - Rarely ever do I lay big points but this is one I will make a rare exception on. Even if Purdue lets up late in this game I still have them winning this game by at least 3 touchdowns. The Boilersmakers do have a pair of Big Ten road games on deck but they are off a road loss at Syracuse and are angry after letting that game slip away. Purdue, after today, has only one home game between now and November. I don't see them holding back here. They will run up the score in this one. This team throws the ball a lot and they are in need of a big win. Remember they lost a tough tight one at home to Penn State in the waning minutes earlier this season. In between the tough tight late-game losses to the Nittany Lions and the Orange, the Boilermakers crushed Indiana State 56-0. Of course Florida Atlantic is not an FCS program like the Sycamores are BUT that still does not change the fact that the Owls are not a great football team and they play in the weak SunBelt conference. This line is saying that Purdue would only be favored by 13 on a neutral field but I don't buy that given the situation. The Boilers have put up some big numbers on offense this season and FAU just does not have the firepower to keep up. Yes the Owls put up some big numbers against lesser competition but they were finally a dog last week and scored just 14 points against UCF. The other teams FAU has faced are a combined 3-7 and included an FCS school also. The Boilers, a Big Ten off a loss and having played a much tougher schedule than the Owls, absolutely pour it on in this one! 8* PURDUE -16

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion Monarchs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 6 ET - We cashed with the over involving Arkansas State last week (at Memphis) and just as I mentioned last week you will read some similar things this week. I know this is not an exciting marquee match-up but this one jumped off the page at me because if you like the excitement of a ton of points being scored, this most certainly should be an entertaining affair here. Old Dominion is off a deceiving final score last week as they allowed over 500 yards of offense but only 16 points! That kind of craziness often leads to line value the very next week and that is the case here. Let's not forget the Monarchs did allow 39 points in their prior game which was at East Carolina. Also, though the Old Dominion offense has unimpressive stats so far they now take on an Arkansas State team that has allowed huge points and yardage against FBS foes. The Red Wolves rank as one of the worst defenses in the nation. However, Arkansas State's offense does their best to try to make up for it. They scored 32 points last week versus Memphis and also did put up 50 on those same Tigers last season when they faced them. Arkansas State no stranger to shootouts is the point I am making and lets not forget they scored over 50 in their first game this season. Even though that was only against Grambling, it is proof the offense can execute when the match-up is favorable. This one is favorable for sure in terms of plenty of points scored and the Red Wolves will score their fair share here. However, they are the underdog here for a reason. They just will not be able to stop a Monarchs offense that is at home and desperately in search of that breakout game and now has the perfect poor defense to be very efficient against and pile up points. The Red Wolves don't have the defensive talent to slow them down. The result is a shootout in this one. 10* OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - When people think of the Longhorns football program right now most just keep thinking about the game against Alabama two weeks ago which certainly was an ultra-impressive performance from Texas and they should be (and have been) commended for that. However, their first game of the season was against an out-classed UL Monroe team and then, after facing Crimson Tide, they faced a UTSA team that is set to be down some this season. Also, Roadrunners are not on the same level as the UT program yet actually hung much tougher with the Horns then the final score shows. UTSA had over 400 yards of offense and had 29 first downs compared to just 21 for Texas. Now further complicating this match-up for UT is, after getting hurt in the Alabama game, their starting QB still likely will not start this game. Ewers had a collarbone injury and even if he plays here I don't think he'll be 100% here. Either way, Card or Ewers making their first road start of this season and that is another big key here. UT has had a great early season schedule with 3 straight home games and their 2 wins over foes from much weaker conferences. Now the Longhorns finally go on the road and this is a big rivalry game and the Red Raiders would love nothing more to knock off their in-state rivals. Texas Tech has played very strong on defense this season and their loss at NC State last week was deceiving as they actually had a big yardage edge and first down edge and were simply done in by turnovers against the Wolfpack. All this has led to line value on the home dog catching a full touchdown here. The fact that UT has dominated this rivalry in recent years only adds fuel to the fire that will be burning for the team from Lubbock today. This is a fantastic home dog spot! 10* TEXAS TECH +7

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 53.5 in Syracuse Orange vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - This will be interesting because Robert Anae is the offensive coordinator at Syracuse but, just last season he was in the same position at Virginia under since-retired head coach Bronco Mendenhall. The point is that Anae is going to want to show the Cavs what his Orange offense can do. At the same time, the offense of the Cavaliers led by QB Brennan Armstrong - a rare lefty QB - will be out to prove they can get it done without Anae leading the offense as the OC any longer in Virginia. A big key here is perception. The Cavs scored only 16 points last week but had over 500 yards of offense! The Orange beat Purdue last week but allowed over 400 passing yards in the win! I really wanted to fade Syracuse here as I feel they are over-rated but I just can't trust this Cavaliers defense. At the same time the Orange offense has looked good so far this season under new OC Anae as QB Garrett Shrader is off to a hot start including 8 TDs and 0 INTs. So look for both teams to have plenty of success on offense in this one. Statistically both teams points allowed stats are not commensurate with their yardage allowed this season. In other words, both the Cuse and VA should have more points per game allowed on the season. Look for this one to to turn into a wild high-scoring affair in the controlled environment of The Dome in upstate New York. 10* OVER 53.5 in Syracuse

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - If you just look at points scored versus points allowed you don't get an accurate picture of where these two 1-1 AFC North rival teams are really at right now. The fact is that Cleveland has been the much better team statistically in comparison with Pittsburgh. Adding to the value with the Browns here is they have more than just the home field edge here. It is expected to be very windy in Cleveland for this one and that makes the ground game all the more important. The Steelers are not a good a ground team and also don't defend the run well. Conversely, the Browns are strong in both those areas. They can pound it on the ground and they do a good job of stuffing the run on the other side of the ball. That said, we have excellent line value here with Cleveland laying a rather short number in this one. I like to look for dogs in the NFL generally speaking but the Steelers are a really bad football team right now on both sides of the ball. The Browns will take advantage as they are angry off the late-game home loss to the Jets last week. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh was outgained 432 to 267 in week 1 but had a 5-0 turnover edge and yet still need OT to get the win at Cincinnati. The Browns have only 1 turnover in two games and the Steelers will not be so fortunate here receiving gifts like they did in the win over Bengals. Also, Pittsburgh was again outgained big, 376 to 243, by the Patriots last week and that game was at Heinz Field! This is a tough road spot for the Steelers plus the Browns have double revenge from last season in addition to being angry about last week's loss to the Jets! 10* CLEVELAND -4

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 61.5 in Georgia State Panthers vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7:30 ET - This match-up first caught my attention because of the line as it looks funny to see 3-0 Coastal Carolina laying just a couple points against an 0-3 Georgia State team. That is part of how I arrived at a big play on the over in this one. The Panthers have played the tougher schedule but still their defense has not looked good. I just can not trust the Georgia State defense. The Panthers have allowed at least 35 points in all 3 games this season. Here they are hosting a Coastal Carolina team that has scored at least 31 points in all 3 games this season. So I see the Chanticleers moving the ball just fine here and scoring plenty of points but, based on the spread on this game too, I look at this match-up as a toss-up in terms of who wins it. That is why I am forecasting a high-scoring back and forth thriller in this one! Keep in mind, Coastal Carolina has allowed at least 26 points in all 3 games this season and they were huge favorites in their last two games so this is going to be the toughest competition they have faced since their opener against Army. The Panthers are going to score very well here as a result but Chanticleers likely to answer them score for score. Keep in mind, Georgia State was about a 20 point favorite in that game and yet still allowed a ton of points in a game that totaled 83 points and over 1,100 yards of offense. 10* OVER 61.5 in Georgia State

NFL Monday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - Long-term NFL betting has as much to do with line value as anything else and getting Philly at less than a field goal at home here is a good value. Some of this value was created by the Vikings looking strong to the betting public because of a 23-7 win over Green Bay last week but their yardage edge was slim in that game plus it was in Minnesota. Another key the value here is the Eagles had a big lead at Detroit last week but then gave up some late scoring to the Lions. That put a bit of anti-Philly buzz on this game. So with a line less than the key number of 3, why am I comfortable taking Philadelphia here besides just the value? Well, the Vikings are now on the road where last season they went just 3-6 SU. Also, one of those wins came against a Bears team that was so bad last season that they had a 5-game HOME losing streak going until they beat the Giants in their home finale. Another Vikes road win came in OT. So, the point is that the Vikings have certainly not been "road warriors" of late. As for the Eagles, they enter this game having won 3 of last 4 at home but note the only loss was that meaningless regular season finale versus Dallas last year. Eagles already knew they were going to playoffs already. The point is that in meaningful games, and after last week's road win at Detroit, Philly has won 7 of 8 in regular season action including 3 straight at home. I am grabbing the value with the home team here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -2.5

NFL Monday 8* OVER 47.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans @ 7:15 ET - Weather moving through Buffalo today but expected to clear out by mid to late afternoon. That means this early evening battle should not have any issues with rain and/or wind. That said, I am looking for both offenses to function just fine here. The Bills put up 31 at LA last week against the Rams. The Titans scored 20 but should have more at home against the Giants and ultimately they paid for it. I feel Bills defense could be a little flat here after giving so much in knocking off the Super Bowl champs last week. At the same time, I certainly do not trust the Titans defense on the road after they gave up nearly 400 yards of offense to the Giants and that game was at Tennessee. This total was in the low 50s and the crazy trend of primetime NFL games staying under the total finally meets its match here. The Packers and Bears had 31 points at half last night but still managed to stay under 41.5 and I feel all these unders also coming some line shading here that is just not justified. This one gets well into the 50s as both offenses have plenty of weapons and the game involves a pair of quarterbacks that have put up some solid numbers in some recent seasons to say the last. 8* OVER 47.5 in Buffalo

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Love taking an over when it has dropped like this one. Yes, the Bears are off an ugly 19-10 win last week but it was played in bad weather. QB Fields will be better this week as excellent weather in the forecast for Green Bay in this one. The trouble for Fields and company in this one is on the other side of the ball. Chicago is facing a much tougher test this week as now they face Aaron Rodgers and an angry Packers offense after they were held to just 7 points by the Vikings last week. At home and off a loss, Green Bay is known for bouncing back and they are, of course, double digit favorites here for a reason. I generally am not comfortable laying double digits in NFL games but this is particularly true in a divisional game where I expect the underdog to have some success moving the ball. Keep in mind Fields has added a new dimension to the Bears attack on offense plus the Packers did allow nearly 400 yards of offense this week. I would not be surprised to see Green Bay win big here but I think they surrender some points along the way as well and look for a 30-20 type game in this one. Last year's meeting here at Lambeau totaled 75 points and I'll gladly take 2/3 of that for the win here with my numbers forecasting this one to land around 50! Fields had about 300 yards of offense in that one through the air and on the ground so that helps the confidence of the young QB for this one. Plus coming off the win, even though ugly, last week also helps Fields. 10* OVER 41.5 in Green Bay

NFL Sunday 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans @ 4:25 ET - This total has risen higher but it is fully justified in doing so. This is one of those rare occurrences where I actually I am on the move rather than fading it. But the reason is that I had my eyes on this for a potential play ever since Texans allowed over 500 yards to Colts last week but miraculously only gave up 20 points in the eventual OT tie. Couple that with the fact Broncos lost at Seattle and scored only 16 points despite piling up 433 yards of offense and you have a great set up for Denver to score a ton of points here. However, I do not like laying big points in spread sports so my play here is the over rather than the Broncos. I do expect Denver to be relentless and never take their foot off the gas in this one because they are angry about how the Monday night game ended in Seattle. However, Denver will give up some points here too. For one thing the defense gave a big effort against the Seahawks and now play this one on a short week. Also, Mills was decent at QB for Houston versus the Colts last week. If they get 20 again but lose this by double digits like I fully expect they will, then this one gets well into the 50s. Expecting huge game from Russell Wilson and company after last week's frustrating final. The other thing I like here, and the reason I wait longer to release my plays, is that the weather checks out perfectly in Denver for this one. That said, and with both these kickers solid at distance, we could get some long field goals to help our cause in this one too. What happens when a guy misses a long one too? Short field the other way. Conditions and situation just perfect for plenty of points here and of course I am expecting plenty of touchdowns here but just mentioning the field goal game helps us too and I do not expect many punts in this one. 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2.5 or -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Line value because the Colts are on the road. Line value because everyone saw Colts end up in an overtime tie at Houston last week. Line value because many may not have realized Indianapolis won the yardage battle 517 to 299 over the Texans last week. Line value because many may have forgotten (but Colts surely have not) that it was these Jaguars that cost Indy a playoff berth last season. Line value because many may have forgotten (but we have not) that Jacksonville, after last week's loss, is now on a long-term 4-30 SU run. Going further back it is a 15-51 SU run for the Jags. It has been a long time since the Jaguars have put a winning team on the field as their last successful season was 2017. Conversely, this Colts team is a winner and they prove it on Sunday and get payback for last year's loss. Very comfortable laying the short number here. Look for QB Matt Ryan to cut down on the fumbles here and for Indy to, overall, have a very complete game in this one which will lead to a dominating road win. 10* INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 or -3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes +6 @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 9 ET - The Aggies were upset 17-14 by Appalachian State last week even though they were at home. The 3-point loss (so tight on the scoreboard) must have been a fluke upset, right? Actually, not at all! The Mountaineers kicked the Aggies ass all over the field. The final stats were insane. App St 315 yards to 186 for Texas A & M. Additionally, the Mountaineers had 22 first downs compared to just 9 for the Aggies. Are you kidding me? This is embarrassing and now the Aggies host a talented Miami team. The Hurricanes got caught looking ahead to this game as last week they were sluggish in the first half versus Southern Miss. However, they took over in the 2nd half and dominated the Golden Eagles for a big win. The Canes have the QB edge in this match-up for sure and I like the defensive line additions Miami made heading into this season. If the Aggies can't control the line of scrimmage on offense, they will sputter on that side of that ball. They are not getting good QB play and will not be able to establish the run game. All that said, really feel that A & M is going to have a helluva time trying to just win this game let alone win it by at least a TD. Outright upset would not surprise me for sure and no hesitation in grabbing the 6 points for this one as added insurance. 10* MIAMI +6

Saturday CFB 8* OVER 63.5 in Memphis Tigers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7 ET - I know this is not an exciting marquee match-up but this one jumped off the page at me because if you like the excitement of a ton of points being scored, this most certainly should be an entertaining affair here. Memphis really poured it on in the 2nd half of their win over Navy last week. But let's not forget the Tigers did allow 49 points in their week 1 loss. Also, these teams combined for 105 points in last year's meeting. Arkansas State allowed 45 at Ohio State last week and their defense is very vulnerable again here. The Red Wolves did put up 50 on Memphis last season plus they scored over 50 in their first game this season. Even though that was only against Grambling, it is proof the offense can execute when the match-up is favorable. This one is favorable for sure in terms of plenty of points scored and the Red Wolves will score their fair share here. However, they are big dog for a reason. They just will not be able to stop a Tigers offense that has been very efficient already this season. This is a very dangerous team that Arkansas State is facing in this one and they don't have the defensive talent to slow them down. The result is a shootout in this one. 8* OVER 63.5 in Memphis

Saturday CFB 10* OVER 47 in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - This Buffaloes team seems even worse now after Air Force lost at Wyoming last night as a 2 TD favorite! Why? Because that is the same Falcons team that just blasted the Buffs last week. I do feel Colorado will score some points here. As bad as they have been offensively, the Buffaloes should at least get some garbage points against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers, justified as a huge favorite in this spot, are going to key our over as they have shown no hesitation in piling on the points in their first two games this season. Minny is averaging scoring 50 points per game thus far and Buffaloes have allowed at least 38 in each of their first two games. That said, we do not need a whole lot from Colorado here to key our win. The Buffaloes will score some as they get redemption for a home shutout at the hands of Gophers here. The fact is though that Minnesota can run all over and steamroll this very bad Buffaloes defense just like AF did last week. The Golden Gophers rank among the nations best for efficiency on offense and also rank among the fastest in terms of plays run on offense per game. That said, we have all the right variables here including a low total to work with. Look for this one to get well into the 50s as Gophers defense, as this game goes on, can't help but look ahead to Michigan State and the beginning of Big Ten slate of games next week. 10* OVER 47 in Minnesota

Saturday CFB 8* Purdue Boilermakers +1.5 @ Syracuse Orange @ Noon ET - I was very impressed with the Boilermakers performance against Penn State in their season opener. Then they throttled an FCS school last week. Syracuse is getting a lot of love here because they beat Louisville by a big margin in week 1. However, the starts in that game show the final score was a bit of a phony final. Cardinals had a couple of a missed scoring opportunities. Also, the Orange then played a bad UConn team last week. Syracuse has beaten a Cardinals team that is now 11-16 since start of 2020 season and the Orange also beat a Connecticut team that is on an 11-54 run last 65 games. I am not sold on this Syracuse team just yet and the Orange are getting a little too much respect from the markets here. Yes, the dome in Syracuse is not an easy place for visiting teams to play but the Boilermakers play in the Big Ten. The Boilers are used to having to play in tough places and also against much tougher teams than this Orange team. O'Connell putting up big numbers so far for Boilermakers and has 6 TDs and 0 INTs too! Road team gets the win here! 8* PURDUE +1.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 or 47 in Wyoming Cowboys vs Air Force Falcons @ 8 ET - Love this spot for plenty of points. It could be a little breezy early in the game but not too bad (maybe 15 mph max) and the winds will be laying down in evening hours so, even with the early start time of 6 PM local time, we'll have great weather here. The Cowboys are off a win over an FCS school, Northern Colorado, but lets talk about what their defense has done against FBS teams! Wyoming is 1-1 so far versus FBS schools but allowed at least 34 points in regulation time of each game (their lone win was in OT). Through the years the Cowboys have had some success against the triple option attack of Air Force but the Falcons have a strong offensive line and I have not been impressed with the Wyoming defense early this season. Also, two weeks ago, Air Force played Northern Iowa and piled up nearly 700 yards of offense but did allow 400 yards to the Panthers. That is an FCS team and if UNI was able to move the ball on the Falcons defense for over 20 first downs two weeks ago you know Wyoming should enjoy success as well. Of course Air Force a big favorite here for a reason! AF allowed 17 points to Northern Iowa two weeks ago but could have allowed a lot more given the yardage stats. I do expect Wyoming to score some points here as Air Force is on the road for the first time this season. However, the Cowboys will not be able to stop the Falcons attack here. The result is a ton of points. We get line value because this series has a recent history of unders and that is keeping the posted total lower than expected as good weather expected here too and that has not always been the case when these teams meet. 10* OVER 46.5 or 47 in Wyoming

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +4 or +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I am much more impressed with the Chargers win over a solid Raiders team last week then the Chiefs big win over a Cardinals team that is a mess right now. Arizona is without suspended WR D'Andre Hopkins right now and that make them a different team in big way. Also, the Cardinals defense was already a concern coming into this season so the wounded offense was going to have to carry them. The Chiefs showed that is not going to happen but now Kansas City faces a much tougher test here. The Chargers showed last week their defense can step up. Also, LA won here at KC last season so that is a confidence boost as well. I don't trust this Chiefs defense. I know the Chargers are without WR Keenan Allen this week but they still have very solid receiving options and I love having the sizable points being offered in this one. Los Angeles has lost the money only 4 times the last 20 times they have been a divisional road dog! Kansas City will be an all-out war here just win this game...let alone win it by 5 or more points! Grab the points in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 or +4.5

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos -6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - I have said it before and I will say it again here. Generally speaking, the odds makers are the sharpest people around. The Broncos come into this season projected to reach double digits in wins. The Seahawks win total projection is just 5.5 victories. Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl indicate you have a better chance of taking your money and buying a lottery ticket. The Broncos odds for winning Super Bowl show only 5 teams with lower odds. Those 5 teams entering the season were Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers and Rams. Those 5 teams went 67-17 last season. Pretty elite company, wouldn't you say? Yes, a lot of coaching changes in Denver and a new QB in Russell Wilson but I would not be surprised to see it all click right out of the gate. Love the Broncos defense and they should enjoy success here against a Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith. There is a reason Smith has not been a regular starter in the NFL in about 8 years! That said, I have the better defense (Seattle has regressed a lot on that side of the ball), better offense (Russell Wilson over Geno Smith takes this to elite level of edges), and the better overall team that comes into this season much more confident than a Seattle team that knows the writing is on the wall for a full-on rebuild this season. Not a big fan of laying points on the road but this is one of those very special situations that has "road rout" written all over it. Wilson will not hold back against his former team here. Broncos should enjoy piling it on here. 10* DENVER -6.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER 50.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - Last year's meeting totaled 60 points but the total on this one has been dropping this week and it is with good reason. Both teams have question marks at WR and offensive line. Yes we all know about Dak Prescott and, of course, Tom Brady. Certainly two very strong QB's matched up in this one. But Cowboys lost two of their top wide receivers from last year. Also, another Dallas receiver is injured and will miss this game so you only have Lamb as the one proven WR target for the Cowboys. That said, you can guess who Tampa Bay's secondary will focus on here! The Bucs offense is not looking like a juggernaut entering this season either and the Cowboys defense is a little better than people realize. On the other side of the field, the Bucs defense should thrive under HC Todd Bowles as he was their defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons and helped develop the unit as it made significant strides. With him now taking over as head coach, TB might be a little more defensive-minded and also more conservative on offense - even with Brady under center. The Cowboys allowed an average of just 19 points their final 7 games of last season including the playoff loss to 49ers. The Bucs won 8 of 9 games including post-season action before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams. They allowed just 17 points per game in that 8-1 run. With both teams a little better defensively than people realize plus each team having some questions on offense, you can see why I like the under here. 10* UNDER 50.5 in Dallas

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Similar to my play on the Bills Thursday, here I am playing on a team that has been so hungry to take the field again after an ultra-disappointing playoff finish. Tennessee earned the #1 seed in the AFC last season yet lost to the Bengals at home in a turnover-filled affair. The Titans have waited a long time to make up for that effort and the Giants will prove to be no match here. New York's Daniel Jones had a solid rookie season but has since had B2B mediocre seasons and will not be able to match Ryan Tannehill for the Titans here. Look at the numbers that Tannehill has produced the last 4 seasons including the last 3 with Tennessee and compare that to what Jones has done the last two seasons. This is a Giants team that has not won more than 6 games in a season since 2016! Yet this line is saying Titans are only a couple points better than New York on a neutral field. I say no way that is the case and I expect Jones' struggles to continue in a tough road environment here and he will be mistake-prone while Tannehill bounces back with a strong effort at home after January's disappointing playoff performance ended the Titans season earlier than expected. I truly like to take points rather than lay points in the NFL generally speaking but this one is just too much of a mismatch as we have the better defense and better overall team and the home field edge. That said, I am looking for a win by at least a full TD here for the Titans. 10* TENNESSEE -5.5

NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -5 or -5.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - Coming into this season I really liked the Bills and Saints. I feel if Jameis Winston can stay healthy for New Orleans that the Saints are capable of making noise in the NFC. As for the AFC, we all saw what Buffalo is capable of in their Thursday night domination of the Rams. The point is that even though I am not a big fan of laying points on the road in a divisional match-up in the NFL, I am not going to waver from my strong thoughts about Buffalo and New Orleans entering this season. The Falcons are a really bad team and could end up being the worst team in the league this season. The Saints might contend for the Super Bowl. They have a solid defense and the Falcons defense was horrid last season. Also, now Atlanta has Mariota at QB instead of Ryan. There are going to be some growing pains for this Falcons offense early this season while I expect Winston and the Saints to hit the ground running! 8* NEW ORLEANS -5 or -5.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -2.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 10:15 ET - Both teams played weaker foes last week but, still, you could tell by the lines that the tougher tests wa for BYU on the road at South Florida and yet they completely steamrolled the Bulls including jumping out to a 38-0 lead! Baylor hosted an FCS Albany team so they were not tested at all. The Bears lost nearly half their defensive starters from last season and the Cougars return one of the most experienced teams in the country. Not only that, this game is at home in the thin air of Provo, UT and this is another factor favoring Brigham Young in a big way. The Bears beat the Cougars last season but that game was at Baylor and BYU was banged up on defense entering that one. This most certainly is not the case here and we get the more veteran team in an early-season game at home and laying a short number. Don't let the line fool you. Some may be surprised to see a top ten team getting a field goal playing a team that barely has cracked the top 25. Trust me, is not a mistake. Lay it! This is Cougars first home game of season and they only last ONCE at home the past two seasons combined! As for the Bears, they lost twice on the road last season and lost all 5 of their road games the year before. This is still a major test for them even though they have improved a lot since that 2020 disaster. Still too much to ask for them early in the season in this one and feel strongly that Cougars win this solidly at home. 10* BYU -2.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Air Force Falcons vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - Love this spot for plenty of points. The Buffaloes just got run all over by TCU in a 38-13 loss. The Buffs just could not stop the Horned Frogs on the ground and now face the triple option attack of Air Force and the Falcons have a strong offensive line. Air Force played Northern Iowa last week and piled up nearly 700 yards of offense but did allow 400 yards to the Panthers! The Buffaloes did move the ball some versus TCU with each of their quarterbacks and if UNI was able to move the ball on the Falcons defense for over 20 first downs you know Colorado should enjoy success as well. Of course Air Force a big favorite here for a reason! AF allowed 17 points to Northern Iowa last week and could have allowed a lot more given the yardage stats but the point is that even just that puts this game at 34-17 given the spread on this one. I am expecting much more than 17 from Colorado here in a bounce back effort for their offense after struggling with TCU. However, the Buffs will not be able to stop the Falcons attack here. The result is a ton of points. 10* OVER 49.5 in Air Force

CFB Saturday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels -7 @ Georgia State Panthers @ Noon ET - The Tar Heels are not getting much respect from the odds makers here because they gave up a bunch of late points at Appalachian State last week. Two comments to that. First off, lesson learned as UNC paid for getting too comfy with a huge lead and almost blew the game. Secondly, the Mountaineers have a very balanced attack as they can both run and throw very well. As for this Georgia State team that UNC will be facing this week, that is most certainly not the case. The Panthers were 7 for 29 throwing the ball against South Carolina last week. Yes Georgia State has a dangerous ground game but North Carolina can stack the box against the run and dare the Panthers to throw the ball. That being said, just can not see Georgia State being able to keep up here! The Tar Heels were already known last season for a dynamic offense and they certainly have not disappointed in that regard this season either. UNC is averaging 59.5 points per game this season and the Panthers will hang around for awhile in this one and are exciting to be hosting an ACC team. But the fact remains the Tar Heels offense is too much and they eventually pull away for the victory by much more than a TD in my opinion. 8* NORTH CAROLINA -7

Friday CFB 8* Louisville Cardinals +5.5 / 6 / 6.5 @ Central Florida Knights @ 7:30 ET - We are getting extra line value because Cards were bad at Syracuse last week. The Cardinals indeed did not fare well against the Orange at the Carrier Dome but this team will be better this season and I have a feeling they will surprise the Knights here. I am not saying they win outright (though that would not shock me) rather I am just saying this has high probability to be a highly competitive game so I love having the points here. UCF played an FCS school last week so let's not over-react to their big win last week. Also, Central Florida lost to Louisville last season and had trouble slowing them down in the eventual 42-35 loss. Just like the value here in fading a team that last season, based on yardage offensively, ranked in the middle of the pack and they are facing a Cards team that ranked in the top 25 last season on offense based on yardage production. Yes, last week the Cardinals were stopped on downs at the 2 yard line and threw an INT in the end zone and that had a lot to do with them finishing with just 7 points in a game in which they did total 334 yards. They will be better this week and they will score plenty against this UCF defense. 8* LOUISVILLE

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I feel the Bills are going to be on a mission all season long and it starts tonight in a game they thought they would have in February. Indeed, were it not for a miraculous Chiefs win over the Bills January in a wild one, Buffalo would have met Cincinnati the next week. The way those teams match up, Bills would have prevailed over Bengals - in my opinion - and would have then faced LA in the Super Bowl. So it has been a long wait for the Bills but now they do get their shot at the Rams here in September instead and I fully expect they will make the most of it. Yes, maybe it seems hard to fade the defending champs on their home turf but this Buffalo team is so strong. I also like the fact LA lost some veteran players on defense. The Bills have a very balanced offense. Also, on defense, the Bills were one of the top teams in the league against the pass and Rams rely heavily on the pass on offense. The rushing attack of Los Angeles is not a strength so this match-up favors the Bills too. Great pass protection for Buffalo too so that helps negate a Rams strength of last season - their pass rush. I love this match-up and the hunger of the road team and it is not often you are going to be able to get the Bills at such an affordable price this season. Lay the very small number here and look for the Bills to win by at least a field goal though I truly expect a win by at least a TD here. 10* BUFFALO -2

CFB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - This total has dropped down to as low as 50.5 as of early game day morning. I feel strongly that the Tigers are going to explode for big points in this game. At the same time I am not really crazy about laying more than 3 TD's in almost any situation! That said, the safer play is the over in my opinion because I do feel the Yellow Jackets will find a way to break through for some points here. This is a desperate Yellow Jackets team with a chip on its shoulder and this is not the old triple option teams of the past. They will be airing it out a bit here and will be willing to take some risk to try and put points on the board and keep up with powerhouse Clemson. Off a disappointing campaign, by Tigers standards, they can't wait to take the field and prove last season was but an aberration. They will not hesitate in piling it on here and putting up big points. Keep in mind, before last season's grinder of a low-scoring win, Clemson had scored 125 points in wins in 2020 and 2019. Two games...125 points scored...they may not get to a level of averaging a point a minute like those two games work out to but I do expect the Tigers to score big here. Consider the line is in the 23 range so if you think Clemson can get to at least 37 (and honestly I expect much more) and if odds makers are right about the spread of 23 (like they so often are) that puts this game at 37-14 and that would give us an over. But again, how about 44-21, etc? Clemson will pile up points here and Yellow Jackets will do whatever it takes to get some respectable points on the board in this one. The result is a game that should land in at least the 60s at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta the way I see it. 10* OVER 50.5 in Georgia Tech 

CFB Sunday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -3.5 vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - The SEC sure does look strong, as per usual. LSU is the only team yet to play and every other team won their games and there was quite a bit of domination thrown around. Now, as for the ACC, Clemson will meet Georgia Tech tomorrow but, other than that Florida State is the only team yet to play. However, 3 teams already lost games (granted a Louisville or Syracuse was inevitable) and the ACC (other than Clemson) just not on the same level overall as SEC teams overall. LSU is going to be much stronger under new head coach Brian Kelly and they are facing a solid ACC team here but still look at some of yesterday's results. NC State barely beat East Carolina, Louisville scored just 7 points, Boston College and Virginia Tech each lost their games. There is still a gap in levels between these two conferences and the Tigers are VERY hungry and rejuvenated with the Kelly regime now here. LSU is off a disappointing campaign so we are getting line value here. I look for the Tigers to be back with early momentum from the coaching change! The Seminoles also disappointed last season and a win over an FCS school in Week 0 might help confidence but this is not Duquesne they are facing this week! Mike Norvell, HC of FSU, has struggled in his tenure here so far. Keep in mind, HC Kelly was 34-6 with Cincinnati and then went 92-39 with Notre Dame. Florida State, ATS, does not have a good track record in recent games with teams from the Power 5 conferences. 10* LSU -3.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 55.5 in Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos @ 10:30 ET - First thing I want to talk about here is the Boise State defense because I know it is good but consider they shutout New Mexico last season but the Lobos scored an average of only 8.5 points their final 10 games of the season! They were horrible! Boise State also allowed just 3 points in their win over Utah State but the Aggies outgained the Broncos in that one and piled up 443 yards of offense but were done in by turnovers. That 27-3 win was definitely a bit of a phony final! As for their other 10 games last season, Boise State allowed an average of 22.5 points per game. Keep in mind they were not facing a bunch of top offenses either considering they play in the Mountain West Conference. Now they face a very good Oregon State offense on the road and with great weather expected here. This is going to be a back and forth high-scoring affair. The Beavers are very talented offensively but their defense is not their strength and Boise State has the weapons to exploit. This is particularly true of a weak secondary. The Broncos averaged 29 points per game last season and have Bachmeier back at QB and Holani at RB and are very hungry after a 7-4 season last year is not the level they are use to performing at. The Beavers averaged 36 points per game at home last season and return a ton of talent. The issue is a defense that, not including game against FCS Idaho, allowed about 30 points per game last season. This total, very early, actually opened up in the low 60s and has since fallen down to the mid-50s and even below the key number of 56. QB Nolan is back for the Beavers too and leads a solid offensive attack. 10* OVER 55.5 in Oregon State

CFB Saturday 8* Notre Dame Fighting Irish +16 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Yes the Irish have a new head coach but is not like he is new to the program. He was the defensive coordinator last season and helped transform that unit into a very strong defense. Of course Ohio State is annually one of the best programs in the country but the Irish will play their hearts out for this head coach. The players have responded very well to him and we saw already what he was able to do with the defense last season. That solid D will be a key here in keeping Notre Dame in this game because of course the Ohio State offense is fantastic. The ND offense, despite some personnel losses, is still ultra-talented and I feel the Irish are not being given enough respect in this the game. The line opened up at under 2 TD's but has since risen above that key number. I am happy to grab the extra line value here as the Fighting Irish have been solid in recent road openers and will be up to the challenge here. I would not be surprised to see this game decided by a one score margin as the Irish come in hungry and extremely motivated and are talented enough to keep this game interesting! 8* NOTRE DAME +16

CFB Saturday 8* Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Razorbacks are an SEC team that lost to Alabama by just 7 points last season while Cincinnati got rolled by the Crimson Tide by 21 in the playoffs. The Bearcats also lost 8 players to the NFL draft so that is a lot of talent now gone from the roster. Arkansas also lost some starters but definitely have the experience edge here plus they have a powerful ground attack that will give the Cats defense some trouble here. This Cincinnati team just not going to be as strong as they were...not even close. The Hogs wear down the Bearcats as this game goes along and get the home win by a double digit margin. 8* ARKANSAS -6.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 58 in Colorado Buffaloes vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 10 ET - Both teams were weak defensively last season. Making matters worse for the Buffaloes, they lost many of the top tacklers from last year's stop unit. In other words, Colorado's defense likely to continue to struggle and this is particularly true early in the year. TCU returns most of the starters from last seasons team on both sides of the ball. But this may not be good news for a defense that ranked among the worst in the nation statistically. Not only that, they have a new head coach in Sonny Dkyes. He is an offensive minded coach so this helps the offensive production but is unlikely to help the porous Horned Frogs defense! In fact, Dykes comes over from SMU where last season, the Mustangs had some of the best production on offense in the nation but were one of the worst defenses. Considering all of the above and considering that Colorado is at home and should score better as a result and that Texas Christian will be geared up to score anywhere with Dykes on board and 10 starters back on offense, I like the over plenty in this one. Game should have a good pace and also features two very weak defenses and the weather will be great for this one also. 10* OVER 58 in Colorado

Thursday CFB 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 8 ET - So the Lions finished 7-6 last season and got hammered in their bowl game loss to the Razorbacks by a two-TD margin. The Boilermakers went 9-4 last year plus beat Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. Purdue also is at home for this game. The Boilers also return more starters than PSU. Also, though Clifford is a very solid veteran QB for the Nittany Lions, Boilermakers QB O'Connell is probably the 2nd best QB in the conference behind Ohio State's Stroud. So all that said you have Penn State FAVORED by 3.5 points here. You think the odds makers do NOT know what they are doing? The Lions are favored here for a reason DESPITE all the above and a big key is because the Boilers offense lost their top two receivers from last season as one of them was ruled ineligible due to academics while the other one, Bell, is now a Cleveland Brown in the NFL! As for Penn State, no such problems. Not only do they bring back RB Lee, they also have WR Washington back plus they brought in a transfer from Western Kentucky (Tinsley) who had phenomenal numbers for the Hilltoppers last season. PSU has the better defense in this match-up and I know there are some questions about the offensive line for the Lions but that is an area they have filled in nicely despite departures from last season. O'Connell the better QB but Clifford is very solid and led PSU to a 5-0 start last year before he got hurt against Iowa. This Lions team is on a mission this year and they play in the tough east and rank behind only Ohio State and Michigan whereas Boilers play in the weaker West and I would rank them about 4th in Big Ten West. Roll with the road favorite here as they win by at least 7 and, more likely, double digits. 10* PENN STATE -3.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 54.5 in Hawaii vs Vanderbilt @ 10:30 PM ET - The Warriors have a new head coach in Timmy Chang and we was a former star QB for Hawaii. They are going back to the run and shoot offense. They most recently ran this in 2018 and 2019. Their point totals were very high most of the time. A lot of offense and no defense. Based on their way their roster looks this season, more of the same expected here especially with running that type of offense. That is the same offense that former coach Rolovich then took to Washington State and they had some high point totals in 2020 and 2021. The point is that the emphasis for Hawaii is going to be on offense and Vanderbilt is coming off a horrible season defensively. However, they have a head coach hell bent on turning the Commodores around and I feel strongly they are coming to Hawaii to turn this thing around. But their emphasis, like Hawaii, will have to be offense. Again, Vandy was dreadful on defense last season and that is not something you turnaround overnight! I do like some of the personnel changes they have made to get their offense going and the Warriors defense has a lot of holes. As a result, high-scoring shootout in Honolulu is quite likely in this one! 10* OVER 54.5 in Hawaii

NFL Super Bowl Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 vs Los Angeles Rams @ 6:30 ET - All the pressure is really on the Rams here. Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay got to the Super Bowl a few years ago and scored a measly 3 points against the Patriots. There is immense pressure on LA to make up for that effort here. In turn, that puts pressure on QB Matthew Stafford and he has been prone to turnovers in the past. Is this the game the turnover bug bites him again? This would not surprise me if it is. The Bengals and QB Joe Burrow come into this game in an entirely different situation. Cincinnati, of course, was not expected to be here. But the fact no one expects anything from them and any win through the post-season was just a bonus, this Bengals team is playing rather loose and relaxed. That said, and with the line move to the 4.5 range, I really like having the points here in a game in which an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. But having the points is truly a solid bonus as the Bengals have only failed to cover twice in their last ten games against teams with a winning record. Cincy has been an ATS covering machine. The Rams last ten games against teams with a winning record has seen them cover only three of the games. Value with the points. We'll take it! 8* CINCINNATI +4.5

NFL ML NFC Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +165 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 6:40 ET - I like the Niners here and feel we will not need any points and the value is with the solid plus money on the money line in this one. San Francisco has played 19 games this season and only 2 of them were losses by 3 or less points. Los Angeles has also played 19 games this season and only 3 of them were wins by 3 or less points. As you can see given those numbers, the odds that the point spread comes into play here are quite slim. That said, I am grabbing the significant plus money. Something tells me this is the game that Stafford's turnover woes resume while Garoppolo continues to excel at QB for San Francisco. The 49ers were 3-5 on the season before they turned their season around after a 31-10 win over the Rams. Then in the rematch against the Rams they were down 17-3 at half but turned it around in the 2nd half for a 27-24 win. That gives even more confidence to the Niners here. As for the Rams, their season was the opposite. LA started the season 7-1 but then went a rather mediocre 5-4 the rest of the way. After beating Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champs last week, look for LA to fall flat this week. They will not be flat, don't get me wrong, but I just feel they are facing a SF team that is peaking at the right time and playing with a ton of confidence and seems unflappable right now. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +165

NFL Money Line Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills +110 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - The Bills seek revenge for last year's playoff ouster at the hands of KC. Look for last year's playoff experience to help Buffalo a lot in this rematch. The Chiefs were just not quite as strong this season and that is why you are seeing them priced as such a small favorite even though they are at home for this game. With a win here the Bills will host next week's AFC Championship Game because the Titans got knocked out yesterday. This is huge for Buffalo and I feel strongly this is the Bills year to finally get back to the Super Bowl. Buffalo has had only 3 high-scoring losses this season and in the other 15 games, win or lose, the points allowed by the Bills are truly impressive. Buffalo allowed only 13.2 points per game in those 15 games! The Bills have allowed an average of only 15.4 points per game last 5 games overall. Compare all this to a KC team that has allowed 27 points or more in 8 games this season and enters this game having allowed an average of 26.3 points per game last 3 games. The Bills have the added confidence too of having won here in Kansas City earlier this season. The Chiefs go from facing a Pittsburgh team with Roethlisberger on his last legs to facing a Bills team with Allen capable of picking apart opposing defenses. The road team trend in the divisional round continues and no points needed here. 10* BUFFALO +110

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 9* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 3 ET - Do you think the Rams are only 4 points better than the Eagles team that the Bucs just flat out embarrassed last week? Me neither! But that is what this line is telling you as the Rams are +3 this week after the closing line on last week's game was Eagles +7. That is only a 4 point variance and I am not buying it. The odds makers do not intentionally set "trap lines" but this is one that will likely "trap" public bettors as Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl Champions are only a 3 point favorite on their home turf. The Rams look like a team on a mission after their dismantling of the Cardinals last week and I love their defense. Also, this is not a pedestrian offense for LA like the poor Philly offense with a rookie QB that TB faced last week. Upset alert! 9* LOS ANGELES RAMS +3

NFC Game of the Year NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +5.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The 49ers beat a good Cowboys team last week. That was not just about Dallas being bad it was that the Niners are built well for playoff football and they proved that last week. Defensively this team is solid and, oh by the way, San Francisco plays in a division with Arizona and the Rams. LA may have made the Cards look bad last week but the fact is both the Cardinals and Rams are very good teams and finished the regular season with a combined record of 23-11. As for the Packers, they play in a division with the likes of the Vikings, Bears, and Lions. Not only did none of those teams have a winning record, the 3 combined for a 17-33-1 record. Now don't get me wrong, Green Bay is an excellent team. I am just pointing out that they might be a bit over-valued. Also, Green Bay won at San Francisco earlier this season but the Niners lost the turnover battle 2-0. The 49ers actually had 26 first downs compared to only 21 for the Packers. Also, the line in that game was SF -3 and that means the markets considered the teams equal then. Now this game is at Green Bay and the line was as high as a -6 on the Packers. Suddenly GB is now deserving of an extra 3 points compared to the original match-up? The point is that if this line was priced the same was as the original match-up it would be GB -3. This is value. Packers played 17 games this season and only 8 were wins by more than 3 points which means 9 were not! You get my point. The Niners have now played 18 games and only 5 were losses by more than 3 points which means, of course, the other 13 games were not! I just look for a very tightly contested game quite possibly decided by 3 points and whether SF wins or GB wins I don't care as long as the margin is slim like that. The fact is though I sense an upset here. The Niners allowed 17 points per game last 6 games. GB, not including meaningless season finale in which they did not care, did enter that contest having allowed 26 points per game last 6 games. The better D and a very confident group will be able to get the upset here but I am grabbing the points for added insurance. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +5.5

NFL Daytime Dominator 9* Top Play Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Huge rest edge here for Tennessee off the bye week while Cincinnati was in action for wild card weekend. Give the Bengals credit as they got it done last week and are elated to have finally won a playoff game after a 3-decade stretch without notching a post-season win. That said, Cincinnati has already achieved something and there was a lot of celebrating last week. However, now they are facing a much different animal. The Titans are not the Raiders...not even close. Playing a playoff game on the road instead of at home...not even close. The point is that Joe Burrow and the Bengals are in for a rude awakening going on the road and facing one of the top teams in the league and one with a good amount of playoff experience on its roster. Look for this to turn into a blowout as Cincinnati perfectly fits the mode of a "one and done" in terms of how they are built for a post-season run. They just don't have the ground game on offense that the hosts have and now those hosts getting back Derrick Henry at RB this week too. 9* TENNESSEE 

NFL Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +4 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The road team won both meetings in the regular season. Rams on a 2-4 ATS run in home games. Cardinals were 8-1 SU and ATS in road games. Los Angeles known for playoff disappointment. I also like Murray over Stafford at the QB spot as the latter has been a little turnover-prone of late and the former is such a dangerous playmaker. The Cards are offering line value here because there is a lot of anti-Arizona sentiment based on their late season fade but a lot of that had to do with some injury issues that have since improved. Other than the split against Arizona, Los Angeles went just 1-4 SU in games against teams that ended up in the playoffs this season. Also, the Rams had a pair of wins against two other teams (Colts and Ravens) that came by margins of just 3 and 1, respectively. The point is that there is a lot of value with grabbing the points here in my opinion and an outright upset would certainly not surprise me in the least. 10* ARIZONA +4

NFL Wild Card Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 46 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - Decent football weather expected for this one with no precipitation, temperatures right around freezing and winds around a moderate 10 mph. Both offenses will have the playbooks wide open for this one. Now I know that the Steelers offense has struggled but the way I see this game playing out is the Chiefs getting a big lead and then we're going to see some extra scoring in garbage time for sure. Just like Big Ben had a big game in his final home game of his career two weeks ago, the Steelers also want to give him a good send off here and everyone will likely be doing their part in that regard. That means more points than you would likely expect from the Steelers here. Keep in mind, the Chiefs have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of last 4 games and that is part of the reason the over trend is 5-0 last 5 Kansas City games. Also, about that Steelers defense, it has not traveled well. Pittsburgh has allowed 33.4 points per game in last 5 road games. The Chiefs are favored by about two touchdowns here and given the above numbers and the situation with Roethlisberger airing it out in this game I feel certain, look for a 35-21 or 38-24 type game here. This should fly over as a 6th straight KC game tops the number. 10* OVER 46 in Kansas City

NFL Contrarian Crusher Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +3 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - You all likely know the traditional factor of a home team generally having a factor of 3 points in the line in the NFL. That said, this line is saying that these teams are equal even though Dallas finished 12-5 and won their division while the 49ers barely made the playoffs! San Francisco's 10-7 record placed them 3rd in their 4 team division. With all this said, you know where that places me on this game. When something does not look right most will just line up on that side where they feel there is a mistake and now they miraculously have some gift from the odds makers. It just does not work that way folks. Many may be enticed to play Dallas at home -3 here but in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the public in this one. The Cowboys went only 5-3 at home this season and the Niners went 6-3 on the road. Also, SF won 7 of last 9 games and Dallas - other than 2 wins against Eagles in divisional battles - went 1-4 in games against playoff teams. This is another game where all the pressure is on the home favorite. In fact, the expectation is that if Cowboys don't make a run in this post-season there will be some coaching staff shake-ups. This is a lot of pressure on a team and Dallas has never been known for handling pressure well. Upset alert! 10* SAN FRANCISCO +3

NFL Earliest Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The big underdog Eagles getting some help from mother nature in this one as very windy conditions expected in Tampa for this one. This could limit the passing games a bit and when you compare the running games of these teams the Eagles certainly hold the big edge. Since Philadelphia went to their heavy ground attack, that is when the team has flourished. Prior to their loss in a season-ending finale that had no meaning to them (guys sat, etc) Philly had won 7 of 9 games. Of course the Buccaneers are the defending Super Bowl champs and finished the season red hot so I am not saying the Eagles win this outright of course. I am simply saying that getting more than a TD is offering great value here. Before their blowout win over the Panthers in the season finale, only 5 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games were Bucs wins by more than a TD! The Eagles know they must get after Brady in this game and between the wind and QB pressure, I think Tom Brady and Company will be held in check more than usual in this game. The "we have nothing to lose" Eagles come into this game loose and relaxed knowing nothing is expected of them while all the pressure is on Brady and Company as one of the Super Bowl favorites. Glad to grab the big points here. 8* PHILADELPHIA +8

AFC East Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots could be hosting this game but they instead went 1-3 their last 4 games. The Bills could be on the road for this game but instead they got the job done and went 4-0 last 4 games. Also, the experience of last year's post-season run for Buffalo and QB Josh Allen is huge. Allen had a 5-1 TD-INT ratio in last year's playoff run and that included a 3-0 ratio at home. Now he and the Bills take on a rookie QB Mac Jones making his first ever playoff start and it is on the road and it is in frigid conditions for a QB who played his college ball at Alabama. As for Allen, he played his college ball in Wyoming and certainly is no stranger to cold weather games. It will be frigid at Orchard Park Saturday and Allen and the Bills stay hot and make it 5 straight SU wins and, along the way, they get the cover too! 10* BUFFALO -4.5

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line has moved back toward the Bengals now. We are seeing some +6 with a plus money price and even some +6.5 are now out there. Anyway, is now about 5 hours before kickoff so I don't want to hold off any longer because I don't think we are going to see any 7's show up on this one but we definitely have value with the big dog here in my opinion. All the pressure is on a Bengals team that is on an 0-8 SU run in the post-season and has not won a playoff game in 3 decades! Cincinnati is favored and feels the pressure to win here. The Raiders come into this game loose and relaxed plus on a 4-game winning streak. This is the perfect recipe for a dangerous dog situation! That is what I see here is an underdog that has been playing with an "us against the world" mentality for 4 straight weeks now and I look for them to at least get the cover even if their SU winning streak does finally come to an end. I don't trust the Bengals laying this many points in this situation and would not be surprised to see this game decided by a margin of only 3 or 4 points. 8* LAS VEGAS +6.5

CFB Money Line Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide Money Line +132 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 8 ET - There are multiple ways to look at the line in this game of course and I am going to talk to you about my angle on the ATS side but then grab the extra value here by utilizing the money line. Georgia is a helluva strong team of course. The Bulldogs were nearly 7 point favorites in the SEC Championship Game between these teams 5 weeks ago. The Georgia defense got embarrassed in that game and you know they will want to respond here. However, the odds makers know this too yet they priced Georgia as only a 2.5 point favorite. They knew the markets would back the revenge-minded Bulldogs and so they had to shade the line some. Sure enough an already-shaded line has been driven by the markets to a -3. Long-time followers know I love fading line moves and fading public perception. There is a reason this line was priced so low even though Georgia has revenge from SEC Championship Game as well as from losing the last National Championship Game 4 years ago in OT after rallying from a 13-0 halftime deficit. Don't fall for the trap line here folks. Not only is the Crimson Tide the play, we don't need any points. Money line top play here. 10* ALABAMA +132

NFL GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Win and you are in! So this one pretty clear cut in terms of its magnitude for the post-season. That said, the winner is going to be the road team in my opinion and don't be fooled by the fact that the home team is an underdog here. Yes the Raiders have won 3 straight games but we will take a closer look at that 3-game win streak right after I remind you that Las Vegas had lost 5 of 6 before that 3-game run! So about those 3 wins, they faced a Colts team that got QB Wentz out of covid protocol essentially right before the game and it showed as Indy had their lowest yardage output of the season but clearly they were not ready for the game. The week before that the Raiders beat a Broncos team without QB Bridgewater and Denver was struggling on offense without him. The week before that LV beat a Browns team that was down to 3rd string QB and dealing with a covid mess. The point is that the Raiders got a ton of breaks during this 3-game winning streak and they had lost 5 of 6 before the string of good luck. Their luck runs out here as they face a QB that picked them apart in first meeting and is raring to go for the rematch as well. The Raiders finally face a healthy #1 QB and a rather healthy team overall that also is playing with a ton of motivation. The Chargers last 3 ROAD games against teams that are all now going to the playoffs were all wins and came by a combined score of 98 to 70. I look for another big road win here as the Raiders have had a season marred by off the field issues and problems and simply got lucky to even be in this spot. This is the week their luck has run out as this Las Vegas team - take a close look at them - simply does not have the look of a playoff team. The road favorite proves that on the field tonight! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2.5

NFC West Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 48 in Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks and Cardinals each off huge wins. Seattle, of course, eliminated from playoffs but they are out to prove things with Russell Wilson at the controls and it showed in their 51-29 win over Detroit last week. They can prevent Arizona from even having a chance at the NFC West title by knocking them off here so you know they are going to pull out all the stops in that regard. However, the Cards are going to be tough to stop on their home turf and coming off the key 25-22 win over the Cowboys last week. That sets this one up nicely as far as turning into a high-scoring shootout! Arizona will take advantage of a Seahawks team that has allowed an average of 27 points per game last two weeks even though they faced bad teams from NFC North and the games were in Seattle! At the same time, the Seahawks will enjoy success as this is an offense that has had just one bad game the last five games and averaged 34.5 points in the other 4 games. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games and I expect another one here. 10* OVER 48 in Arizona

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts -14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Colts need a win for the playoffs and the Jaguars need a loss for the top pick in the NFL draft. Look for both teams to punch their ticket! The Colts are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games! The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS last 7 games overall. This line falling into the -14 range makes Indianapolis worthy of investment here. The Colts should absolutely annihilate a Jags team that is again the laughingstock of the NFL. Supposedly some Jacksonville fans will show up dressed as clowns for this game as that is how far things have fallen for Jags. You have to feel sorry for Trevor Lawrence getting into this mess after all his success at QB at a powerhouse CFB program like Clemson. That said, QB Carson Wentz and head coach Frank Reich are coming off the Colts worst yardage performance of the season in last week's loss to the bad defense of the Raiders. They simply overlooked them and now they take out their frustration on a bad Jags team. This one gets very ugly and I know the line is big but you can see per the stats (6-0 ATS, 0-7 ATS) above that it is 100% justified and I am expecting a win by at least a 3 TD margin here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS -14

NFL Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +11 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:30 ET - The Chiefs can still get to the #1 seed in the AFC if they simply win this game and the Titans lose Sunday. While the former has a good chance (though I expect a tight game) the latter is highly improbable as Tennessee is also a double digit favorite this weekend since they are facing the Texans. Mentally, the Chiefs are not in the right frame of mind for a blowout win here. They blew their chance at the #1 seed by losing to the Bengals last week. There will be some carryover effect from that loss into this game. Also, KC's biggest concern here has to be staying healthy. The Broncos, on the other hand, have no such concerns here and I expect them to be flying all over the field with aggression as they host a long-time division rival that has had their number for about 5 or 6 seasons in a row now. Yes, the Broncos have a tough QB situation but this team is highly motivated here, will be going hard at home in this one, and can throw caution to the wind in an all-out effort to finish the season with a win over a hated division rival. I will grab the big points here as I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Chiefs need to stay healthy. They know their chances of the #1 seed are very slim and it is better to avoid injury here. 10* DENVER +11

CFB Situational Slaughter Tuesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers +7 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 9 ET - The Wildcats scored a COMBINED total of just 27 points in their last two games of the season and that included one against a Longhorns team that had a bad season. The Tigers scored 27 points in EACH of their last two games of the season and that included an outright upset win over a solid Texas A & M team which made sure LSU got their 6th win and is the reason they are playing in a bowl game. I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. Kansas State has gone from being a -2.5 favorite to now being favored at a full -7 as of game day. Yes there are reasons for the line move but long-time followers know I love to fade line moves and grab the value on the other side. Certainly the Cats played a respectable schedule as they play in the Big 12 but the Tigers and the SEC schedule was even tougher. Too much value to pass up on with the big points being offered here. 10* LSU +7

AFC North Game of the Year Monday NFL 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Browns are eliminated from playoff contention while the Steelers remain alive with a win tonight though they would also have to win plus get unlikely help next week. The point is that Pittsburgh is playing with playoff pressure while Cleveland is not. The Browns have now gone from being a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog in this one. The line swing of about a full TD is simply too much. Keep in mind, the Steelers are a rival for Cleveland. Just as their playoff hopes were squelched yesterday, the Browns would love nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's playoff hopes tonight. There is no pressure to do so but they would love to do it. So you have a road team playing loose and relaxed and hungry for an elimination win over a rival. You have a host that has not even scored a first-half touchdown in ANY of their last FIVE games and is playing with playoff pressure here. The Steelers are a bit lucky they are even 2-3 SU in their last five games and I look for them to struggle to score points again in this one. The Browns will deliver a "shocker" tonight as Pittsburgh is the team that needs to win but, to this day, the betting markets have just never fully gotten a grasp on this. The reaction is that if a team needs to win it will win and that is just not how this stuff works. This is particularly true in a rivalry game. I'll happily take the points in this one! 10* CLEVELAND +3

NFL Game of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +13 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 PM ET - Frigid temperatures expected for this one and it is a divisional battle and it is just too many points in my opinion. Even though Vikings are with their #2 QB, Mannion can be a good game manager and I am expecting a huge game from RB Cook in this one. The Packers should still win this game but I expect it to be by a margin closer to the original 1 TD line on this game not two TDs! The home team has won just twice in last five meetings between these divisional foes and the two wins by the host were each by 5 or less points! Green Bay has won 4 in a row but all but 1 were by 8 or less points! The Vikings have played 15 games this season and not one of them have been a loss by more than 8 points! That means if you had the Vikes +13 in all games this season you would be a perfect 15-0! Happy to test that edge here! 10* MINNESOTA +13

NFC Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41 in Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions @ 4:25 ET - Late in the season I like to look for overs in games involving teams going nowhere. When you have teams eliminated from playoff contention you generally have teams disinterested in terms of having a lot of defensive intensity on the field. I am also a contrarian and with somewhat ugly weather expected in Seattle Sunday afternoon I will gladly go against public perception and take the over with the low total being offered. Yes I know that Stafford is out at QB for the Lions in this one but that means Boyle gets a 2nd straight start and that will help him here. Also, Russell Wilson still would like to go out with a bang this season and I expect a big game here in the 2nd to last week of the regular season. No holding back here for either QB as neither team has anything to worry about as there is no playoff pressure. Note that Detroit had scored 29 or more in 2 of last 3 games before their 20-16 loss last week. The Seahawks have scored 24 or more in 3 of last 4 games and all 3 of those efforts resulted in an over. Look for another one here! 10* OVER 41 in Seattle

NFL PA Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 @ Washington Football Team @ 1 ET - The Eagles dominated Washington in their game last month much more than the 27-17 final would indicated. Philadelphia outgained them by 282 yards so the final score could have been much worse! Now Washington enters this game off an ultra-embarrassing loss to the rival Cowboys. A performance like that against a rival is an indication of a football club that has quit on the season. That said, I look for the Eagles to pound the Football Team again in this one and we have good line value here because Philly is on the road. If they were at home they would be laying double digits but on the road it is keeping this line in the -4.5 range and each of the Eagles last 6 wins have been by 10 or more points. As for Washington, each of their last 8 losses have been by 7 or more points. Lay the number with the road team in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

CFB Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels -1 vs Baylor Bears @ 8:45 ET - Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense in this match-up. Also, could Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon be impacted by the fact he has missed some recent game action with a hamstring injury? I believe the answer to that will prove to be yes. Keep in mind, the Rebels allowed an average of only 18 points per game over their last 4 games. The Bears are off a tight 21-16 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game but did allow 24 or more points in 6 of 9 games heading into that one. Also, in their win over the Cowboys they actually were outgained by nearly 100 yards but were the beneficiary of 4 Oklahoma State interceptions in that game. That is not happening again here as Mississippi QB Matt Corral threw only 4 all year and plus threw for 20 touchdowns. Also, the Rebels have an excellent ground attack so they have a balanced offense and a tremendously solid defense! The Bears are in trouble here and are over-rated in my opinion and the SEC foe how had only 2 losses this season will get it done. One of their only two losses was to mighty Alabama and the other one was to a very solid Auburn team that had almost beaten the Crimson Tide this season. 10* OLE MISS -1

CFB Contrarian Crusher Saturday 9* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - This is a contrarian play here. The common viewpoint on this game is that Ohio State is disappointed to be here. Lets not forget this is the Rose Bowl! Yes the Buckeyes were playing for the national championship last year and this year they will not be. However, this is an Ohio State team that is angry after losing badly at Michigan to finish their regular season off. The Buckeyes want to erase the bitter taste of defeat from their mouths here and they also want to get some redemption against a Pac-12 foe as their only other loss this season came at the hands of Oregon. That is the same Ducks team that the Utes manhandled twice this season. However, Ohio State is coming to play here and Utah does not have the explosive offense that the Buckeyes have. Look for that to be a key difference maker here and the favorite pulls away as this game goes on. They are far more motivated for this game than most realize. 9* OHIO STATE -3.5

CFB Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -7.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Wolverines are known for struggling in big games. I know Michigan finally came up big in their big game versus Ohio State and also won the Big Ten Championship over Iowa. However, that does not change the fact that the Wolverines have lost 4 straight bowl games both SU and ATS and now they face a team that might be the best team in the country. I know Georgia lost to Alabama but this Bulldogs team is really something else. They had allowed only 7 points per game in 12 straight wins before the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now we get a chance to take one of the best teams in the country off a loss and laying only about a TD and we can fade a team with a poor recent bowl history under Harbaugh...I'll take it! Lay the points for a big play here. The Bulldogs defense will be the difference in this one. The Wolverines allowed 23.6 in their 5 games away from home before the Big Ten Championship. The Bulldogs never allowed more than 17 points this season until the loss to Crimson Tide. Michigan allowed 17 points or more in all 5 of those games away from before beating Iowa. The Dawgs D rules the day here. 10* GEORGIA -7.5

CFB Contrarian Crusher Friday 9* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats are undefeated and yet nearly a two TD underdog against a Crimson Tide team that has one loss on the season. Big mistake by the odds makers, right? Hardly! In typical contrarian fashion, laying the big points in this one! Look for Alabama to crush Cincinnati here. The Tide played a tougher schedule, have the much better passing attack and the much better run defense. All signs pointing to a blowout here as the Bearcats finally find out what it is like to take a major step up in class in terms of the high level of opponent they are now facing. They finally got their wish of being a part of the national title discussion and having that chance to prove that a smaller program can get it done on the big stage. Unfortunately for Cincinnati though, this story does not have a good ending. 9* ALABAMA -13.5

Peach Bowl Blowout Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - The Panthers have the better numbers overall this season and I definitely like their edge on defense in this match-up in particular. Yes there are some opt-outs for this game but that is effecting both teams. I also know the Spartans have the better recent bowl history but feel we have value with the defensive-minded physical underdog in this match-up. The Panthers hold the edges in pass defense and I like their ground game too. Strong rushing team and with a solid defense and they are an underdog. This one has all the right ingredients that equate to value. Also, Pat Narduzzi is Pittsburgh's head coach and he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan State from 2007 to 2014. The Spartans are coached by Mel Tucker and this is the first ever bowl game he has coached in. Grab the points! 10* PITTSBURGH

CFB Bowl Insider Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:15 ET - The Sooners are the much better overall team in my opinion. Yes they have lost a couple games recently but they only trailed Baylor by 3 entering 4th quarter of the defeat that ended a 17-game winning streak for Oklahoma. Also, the Sooners other loss was by just 4 points to another strong team, Oklahoma State. That said, take a look now at the Ducks losses: lost to a Stanford team that has since lost 7 straight games and finished the season 3-9. Also, Oregon lost twice to Utah by a combined score of 76 to 17. The fact we can still get Oklahoma in the TD range for this game has me rating this play with my top play rating as I feel we have the much stronger team here at a bargain price and the Ducks have shown on 3 different occasions this season that they are fully capable of really disappointing in a game. They do it again here and the Sooners roll. 10* OKLAHOMA -6.5

CFB Bowl Annihilation Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 57.5 in Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:45 ET - The Red Raiders defense struggled down the stretch. The Bulldogs should be able to score plenty in this one against Texas Tech and, of course, Mississippi State is a big favorite here with good reason. However, don't be surprised if the big dog in this match-up also moves the ball quite well. Texas Tech has a solid aerial attack and, other than a shutout loss to Oklahoma State, note that the Red Raiders scored an average of 33 points per game this season! That was their average in the other 11 games. The Bulldogs had one bad game - 9 points against Alabama - but averaged 33 points in the other 11 games this season! Don't be surprised if we see a 42 to 31 type game here which pushes this one well over the total. 10* OVER 57.5 in Mississippi State

NFL Primetime Thrasher Monday NFL 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Ian Book of the Saints is scheduled to make his first ever NFL start and, in the eyes of the betting marketplace, that means the Dolphins win this game. I disagree. It is not as if Book has never played on the big stage as he played his College Football at Notre Dame! This guy is use to big game settings and also this game is at home. Having the support of the home fans will certainly help Book. Also, New Orleans is a solid team battling to stay alive in the playoff race and they are catching value here because the Dolphins have been on a winning streak. Keep in mind, two of those six Miami wins were over a Jets team that is 4-11 and another one was over a Giants team that is 4-11 and also Houston is 4-11 and Carolina is 5-10. So of the 6 wins in their win streak, 5 were against combined current records of 21-54 (counting Jets record twice). I am just not sold on this Miami team and only one of those 6 wins was on the road and prior to that road win the Dolphins had lost 4 straight games when away from home. 10* NEW ORLEANS +3.5

CFB Earliest Blowout Monday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +7 vs Western Michigan @ 11 AM ET - In the regular season the situation here for Nevada would be devastating. But, in bowl time, when a team has extra time to prepare for a game things can be managed much better. Nevada has a number of opt outs for this game but nearly the entire defense is intact and it is made up of veteran players. On offense yes they are starting an inexperienced QB but the 6'9 signal-caller has had extra time to prep with this team and they are going against a MAC defense. The MAC has not performed well overall in these bowls thus far. So, what about the MWC? They are a perfect 4-0 and that includes beating a Pac-12 team (Ore St) and a team (UTSA) that nearly finished with a perfect record in the regular season. This line has gone from Nevada -3 or -4 to now the Wolf Pack being a +7 underdog. More times than not these line moves never work out like the betting masses think they will. A 10 point swing here? A MAC team favored by 7 over an MWC school? I know that Nevada also has an interim head coach for this one but he has this team believing and viewing this is as their "one game season" together. Practices have been spirited and you are going to see a spirited effort from the Wolf Pack come game time too. Look for the defense, mostly intact other than being without one top player, to absolutely be the dominant force in this game! 10* NEVADA +7

NFL Primetime Punisher Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Football Team +9.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Washington gets Taylor Heinicke back at QB for this game. This is a rivalry game. Washington swept the Cowboys last season but now has revenge from a loss at home versus Dallas two weeks ago. The Football Team now in a little better shape from the covid that had impacted their roster recently. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 Cowboys games. Also, Dallas is 1-2 SU and ATS last 3 home games. The road team gets the money in this one. The set up is perfect, everyone is on the Dallas bandwagon now after their big road trip and now, as per usual, the Cowboys return to Jerry's World and disappoint. Look for the Cowboys to win but not cover as I expect this to be a tight game decided by a one-score margin. Look for a huge game from Heinicke in this one and the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to Arizona in a tough match-up in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +9.5

NFL AFC Total of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER 45.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - Mild weather in Kansas City for this one but driven by strong south winds. That said, the wind should be enough to limit the passing attacks here and I expect a bit of a low-scoring grinder in this one. The Chiefs on a 7-game winning streak and off a high-scoring win at LA against the Chargers but had allowed only 11 points per game in the first 6 victories in the streak. The Steelers have allowed 19 points or less in 2 of last 3 games. Pittsburgh's defense has had some issues at times this season but considering the magnitude of this game in the playoff race I look for the D to deliver another strong game here and the Chiefs defense resumes their recent domination as well. Couple those factors with the potential wind issue here and we should see a bit of a grinders. 10* UNDER 45.5 in Kansas City

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles will take advantage of facing a QB making his first ever NFL start against a division rival hungry for a playoff berth. Also, Jake Fromm on the road for this start. I know the line looks big but the Eagles are 7 wins this season have featured 6 by a double digit margin with those 6 wins having an average victory margin of 19.5 points per game. In other words, don't let the big line keep you away from this one. The Giants are a bit of a mess right now and firing the offensive coordinator has not helped. New York is still struggling. The Giants have lost 10 of 14 games this season and 6 of their last 7 losses have been by 11 or more points! In fact, those 6 defeats have come by an average margin of 18.8 points per game. This one gets ugly! 8* PHILADELPHIA -10.5

NFL Primetime Punisher NFL 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Cardinals have lost back to back games and 3 straight home games! Not much home field edge here for Arizona. As for the Colts, they are one of the hottest teams around with going 8-3 last 11 games! Indianapolis is off a key win over the Patriots but they will not let up here and the key is they also had a bye week before facing New England. The Colts are the fresher team and hotter and they are still chasing the Titans for the top spot in the division so, again, no letdown here! The Colts have covered 9 of last 11 road games and I will take the points here but don't expect to need them as Arizona is starting to doubt themselves. B2B losses and 3 straight defeats at home...the doubts are creeping in on this team and this Colts team is even better than their full season record indicates. Keep in mind they started the season a poor 0-3 so they have come a long way since then. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +2.5

NFL Afternoon Thrasher Saturday 8* Cleveland Browns +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:30 ET - The Browns are consistently involved in close games. 6 of their last 8 games decided by 6 or less points! Looking at the Packers last 7 games only 2 of them were GB wins by more than 8 points. Green Bay is off a win over Baltimore while Cleveland is off a loss to the Raiders. Packers have a rest edge here but it is not a big one and the Browns off a loss looks very attractive here. Cleveland has won 5 of 6 games when off a loss and I look for them to again avoid a losing streak here as they bounce back after the loss to Las Vegas last week. We have a cushion to work with here as we are getting 7.5 points so I am speaking about an ATS win here. Loss by 7 or less for the Browns if they don't manage the outright upset. I look for this game to be a tight one decided by a one-score margin. 8* CLEVELAND +7.5

CFB Perfection Play Saturday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals +6 vs Georgia State Panthers @ 2:30 ET - Value with the points here. Feel we are getting extra value in this line simply based on the fact that the Panthers went 8-4 ATS this season while the Cardinals went 4-8 ATS this season. There is really not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Ball State is getting about 6 points in this one. Yes, they come from the MAC and that conference has struggled in these bowls but Georgia State is from the Sun Belt Conference and that is certainly not a powerhouse conference. The Cards have had extra bowl prep time to prepare for a Panthers offense that is rather ground-heavy while I feel strongly that the Cardinals have the better passing attack and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one. 10* BALL STATE +6

NFL Thursday Thrasher 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Titans are off a loss at Pittsburgh but they nearly doubled up the Steelers in yardage. Tennessee was simply done in by turnovers in that game and this is helping to give us line value here. Keep in mind this Titans team has beaten the Colts twice this season plus the Chiefs, Rams, and Bills. Tennessee can beat anybody on any given Sunday and love them in this spot as a home dog against an over-valued 49ers team! 10* TENNESSEE +3

CFB Game of the Week Thursday 10* Top Play Central Florida Knights +7 vs Florida Gators @ 7 ET - Too many points. Florida has not covered 6 straight games. Central Florida, in this match-up, is like the little brother facing the big brother, an SEC team from the same state. That said, the more motivated team to (no offense intended) to be playing in the Gasparilla Bowl rather than a bigger bowl closer to (or on) New Year's is going to the Knights. They will prove to be the team that wants this more. UCF has won 5 of 6 games SU and here they are getting a full 7 points. Florida's only 3-5 SU last 8 games and one of those wins was by just 3 points and the other 2 were against Samford and a bad Vanderbilt team. The Gators just have not shown us much this season and I expect more of the same in this bowl game. 10* UCF +7

CFB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 54.5 in North Texas Mean Green vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 3:30 ET - The over is on a 3-1 run last 4 games for Miami-Ohio. The Redhawks have scored an average of 40 points last 4 games. The Mean Green have averaged 36 points last 5 games. This total is only in the mid-50s yet should get to at least 60s or even 70s the way these teams have been going in terms of offensive production. 10* OVER 54.5 in North Texas

CFB Bowl Annihilation Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 53 in Missouri Tigers vs Army Black Knights @ 8 ET - The Black Knights option attack is likely to give the Missouri defense a lot of trouble. It is simply an offensive attack the Tigers are not use to seeing. The other side of the equation is that Army rarely faces a passing attack as potent as what Missouri possesses. Given the above factors, I am looking for plenty of points in this one and we have a rather low total to work with here. I'll take it! 10* OVER 53 in Missouri

CFB Money Line Game of the Month Tuesday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs Money Line -135 vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7:30 ET - With the line in the -2.5 to -3 range I feel it is well worth it to lay just a little extra juice and take the Aztecs at -135 on the money line in this game. I just don't see San Diego State losing this game. The Aztecs are off an embarrassing 46 to 13 loss in the MWC Title Game and will respond big here. Compared to UTSA, San Diego State played the much tougher schedule this season. Also, the Roadrunners don't have the defense that the Aztecs do and that will make a huge difference in this game. In the regular season San Diego State allowed 14.8 points per game in their 11 wins. The Runners allowed 28 points or more in 6 of their 13 games this season. Remember they played a weaker scheduled too but yet, in those 6 games, UTSA allowed 37 points per game! I am grabbing the better defense from the stronger conference that also has additional motivation because they did not play in a bowl game last season and they coming off the ugly MWC Championship Game loss. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE

NFL PA Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Washington Football Team @ 7 ET - The Eagles are rested off a bye week and also much healthier both on the injury front and in terms of covid issues as you compare these two teams heading into this one. That said, I like the Eagles to roll big at home. Philly finally gets a chance to give Washington some payback as they had won 6 in a row from 2017 to 2019 but then lost both meetings last season. Now it is time for the Eagles to resume the domination and their ground game and better health status and the home field edge will all be key factors as they pull away for the double digit win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

NFL Early Blowout Tuesday 9* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +7 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 7 ET - Just too many points now that Seattle has gotten healthier and is playing a little better. The Rams are a quality team but so many times they disappoint and you know the Seahawks are going to bring their "A game" here and that means we should see quite the ball game here. This one likely to go down to the wire and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. That said, we have excellent line value here with the +7 on this one. The Seahawks off B2B wins and though they have 8 losses this season 4 of those were by 3 or less points. The Rams are of B2B wins and covers but had lost 5 straight ATS prior to that. LA appears overvalued here and the road dog gets it done. 9* SEATTLE +7

CFB Daytime Dominator Tuesday Top Play 9* Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 3:30 ET - The Golden Flashes are a MAC school facing a stronger MWC team here. Don't be fooled by their 6-6 record. Wyoming got better on offense as the season went on and the defense, as per usual, has been the consistent backbone for this Cowboys team. That will be the key again here as Kent State struggles to score and also eventually gets worn down by their opponents ground game. 9* WYOMING

NFL NFC North Game of the Year Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - I am aware of the Bears having injury/covid issues which has been particularly impacting to their secondary. However, other players for Chicago will step up as needed and let's not forget that Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is just 1-9 SU in Monday Night games. I know not all of that falls on him but it is still a stat that is hard to ignore and now here the Vikings have to win by 7 or more to beat us. I'll grab the big home dog points. You know the Bears are going to bring it in a divisional game like this at Soldier Field. Also, Chicago has won 5 of last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. The Vikings enter this game on a run that, for me, just makes it tough to trust them at all as a favorite. Minnesota nearly blew last week's huge lead versus Pittsburgh as the Vikings defense has now allowed 30.5 points per game last 4 games. Before getting blown out at Green Bay last week, a loss fueled by turnovers, the Packers had allowed only 17 points per game in their 3 divisional games this season. They will bounce back here and the Bears have allowed only 17 points per game in their last 4 games against the Vikes. Typical contrarian angle for me here as the whole world is looking at the situation with the Bears secondary but there is much more to this game than just that aspect and the hungry home dog finds a way to overcome the adversity. 10* CHICAGO +6.5

NFL Contrarian Crusher 9* Top Play Cleveland Browns -3 vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 5 ET - Long-time followers know that I am a contrarian in my handicapping. Most will be lining up on the Raiders here because it was the Browns with all the covid issues. But that means bettors are overlooking the fact that Las Vegas has lost 5 of 6 games and has had a very rough season due to all the off the field distractions. Even if Baker Mayfield can't go for the Browns or Case Keenum could not go then Nick Mullens, solid NFL experience with 49ers, would likely get the call here. Either way I like the fact that we get the Browns at home just favored by the typical 3 points assigned for home field advantage. I say that because the markets are implying these teams are equal and I just don't think they are right now. The moving of the game from Saturday to Monday has allowed the Browns to get healthier and they will get it done in this one and improve to 6-2 in home games this season. 9* CLEVELAND

CFB Daytime Dominator Monday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane -8.5 vs Old Dominion Monarchs @ 2:30 ET - Both these teams are 6-6 but Tulsa is the vastly superior team and played a much tougher schedule. Also, check out their performances against some quality teams and tell me if you think the Monarchs could have duplicated such efforts. Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State by just 5 and were leading that game in the 4th quarter. Also, the Golden Hurricane hung around with Ohio State until the Buckeyes finally pulled away convincingly over the final 5 minutes. Tulsa also nearly beat Cincinnati outright on the road. I can not imagine Old Dominion coming anywhere close to duplicating those efforts. Also, the Monarchs did not even play last season - covid - but the Golden Hurricane did and went 6-0 in their conference games but then lost their bowl game last season. Most of those players returned this season and their motivation level is very high to close this season differently! Last year they faced an SEC team in the bowls and this season they face a CUSA team. Huge difference and they should win this handily by a solid double digit margin. 10* TULSA -8.5

NFL NFC South Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +11.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 PM ET - The Buccaneers are over-valued here. The Saints have owned this series, last season's playoff loss notwithstanding, for quite some time and actually are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS last 7 regular season meetings. Now I am certainly not saying they will win this game outright but I do expect them to keep this game very competitive throughout. Yes, last week's win was against "only" the Jets but it also was a game in which the Saints got back some key players on offense and that showed in the results. I am well aware the Bucs are the more talented team in this match-up but they continue to be overvalued. Keep in mind a few weeks ago they looked like they would not cover the 3.5 versus Colts but then Fournette got a late TD run when really they were just trying to set up winning field goal. Then last week they were very fortunate to beat the Bills let alone cover the 3.5 as every late break went their way and, again, it was a long late TD run when setting up for FG would have won it. This Bucs team could easily (and should) be just 5-8 ATS this season and the Saints have been a road covering machine and a divisional covering machine in recent seasons and that continues here. Just too many points to give a respectable team like New Orleans even though they are a different team without Winston at QB. Look for Hill to continue to give opponents trouble with his running ability and look for another big game from RB Kamara here as his return last week was big for this team. 10* NEW ORLEANS +11.5

NFL Total of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Not only is there a chance Lamar Jackson might play, bone bruise rather than ankle sprain, there is no denying that Tyler Huntley has played quite well in his last two appearances for this Ravens offense as his back-up. Either way I like the over a ton in this spot. Baltimore is off an over at Cleveland and, though their most recent home game was an under, the Ravens preceding 4 game stretch of home games went 3-1 to the over. The Packers have a QB by the name of Aaron Rodgers you might have heard of! In all seriousness, Rodgers can break down defenses with the best of him and Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 run to the over the last 3 games! The Pack has scored an average of 37.3 ppg during this stretch but also allowed 30.7 points per game and I look for this one to be a very entertaining affair. Also, from a weather standpoint, if this game was an early game the winds might be an issue but as it is played toward evening hours the winds are expected to be subsiding by then and really be no issue at all in this one. 10* OVER 43.5 in Baltimore

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* New York Giants +12 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys are over-priced here even though the Giants will again be without QB Daniel Jones. New York is on a 7-2 ATS run against divisional foes. You know this team is going to be "up" for hosting the division leaders as well. About hosting, note that the Giants are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 games at home! Now, I am not saying they will win this game outright but I am saying they should keep this one to a single digit margin. The Cowboys are 9-4 SU this season but only 3 of those games have been Dallas wins by more than 10 points. This one likely decided by a single score as I see it! 8* NEW YORK GIANTS +12

NFL Saturday Slaughter - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2 vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are 6-0 on the road this season and the Colts are 3-4 at home this season. Why is Indianapolis favored here? Exactly! At the end of the day, the odds makers are the sharpest people around long-term. Sure things fluctuate from day to day and week to week and month to month but those guys are extremely good at what they do. The point here is, don't let the line fool you. Many will be piling up on a New England team that has won 7 straight games but the Colts are the play here. Of the Pats road wins, they faced the Bills in a windstorm that completely changed the complexion of that game. Their other road wins are against the 8-6 Chargers but then 4 teams that are a combined 16-36 on the season! In other words, this is going to be a tougher test than most anything that the Pats have faced on the road this season. Colts hungry to make a statement at home. 10* INDIANAPOLIS 

CFB Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -6.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:30 ET - I know this UAB team is respectable for sure and I know the location of the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA also favors them. However, the line move on BYU from 8.5 to 6.5 has helped to raise this one to top play level for me. BYU started the season with 5 straight wins and ended the season with 5 straight wins. The two losses were in the middle of that were against Boise State and Baylor. No shame in losing to those two teams. Conversely, the Blazers were a 23.5 points dog versus Georgia and lost by 49 points. Also, UAB lost to Liberty by 24 and also got upset by Rice even though they were favored by 24 points in that one! Yes the Blazers should not have lost their game with UTSA and the Roadrunners did have a great season but the fact is UAB did lose it and they play in the CUSA which is certainly resulted in them playing a much weaker schedule than the 10-2 Cougars did! Look for Brigham Young to prove to be too much in this one. 10* BYU -6.5

CFB Top Annihilation Friday 10* Top Play OVER 62.5 in Cure Bowl @ 6 ET - Northern Illinois faced a tougher strength of schedule but, other than that, all the edges here appear to line up with Coastal Carolina. However, I am never too excited to lay double digits particularly in an early bowl season match-up. That said, the best value here does appear to be with the over in this one. Yes I know both teams like to run the ball a lot which normally lends itself to unders but I feel each rushing attack holds a big edge over the run D they are going against and this game should see some big breakaway runs too as a result. Some quicker scoring strikes than you would expect. Also, the passing game for each, particularly Coastal Carolina, is strong enough that the defenses certainly can not just stack the box to stop the run here. The quarterbacks have had solid success and the Huskies are off an under but 5 of 6 games before that went over the total. As for the Chanticleers, they have averaged 40.4 points per game on the season! 10* OVER 62.5 in Cure Bowl (CC/N.Ill)

CFB Earliest Cash Friday 8* OVER 49.5 in Bahamas Bowl @ Noon ET - Toledo has a potent offense and I just do not see Middle Tennessee State being able to stop them. However, I also do not trust laying double digits with the Rockets especially after they opened up around a TD favorite. The best value here appears to be with the over as the Blue Raiders did average 30 points per game this season on offense and are hungry as, just like the Rockets, this is their first bowl since 2018. Don't trust either defense and the offenses rule the day in this one. 8* OVER 49.5 in Bahamas Bowl (Toledo/MTSU)

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have been hot but they faced a fading Raiders team twice during this 6-game win streak. They also faced a Giants team that is now 4-9 and faced the Packers when they were without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs also benefited from 3 turnovers in their wins over the Cowboys and Broncos and actually were outgained 404 to 267 by Denver in that deceiving 22-9 win. Give KC credit for getting all these wins but the point is that there has been some good fortune in there too. Now facing the #2 team in their division that can tie them in the standings with a win on Thursday, Chiefs are in for a real challenge here. I like the Chargers a lot as a home dog here. Both these teams have strong passing offenses but the key could be the pass defense here. Based on yardage allowed, the pass defense of LA far superior to that of KC on the season. The home team wins the air battle here in this one and, in doing so, also wins the game. 10* LA CHARGERS +3

NFL NFC West Game of the Year - NFL 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Jaguars were just what the doctor ordered for the Rams! Last week's blowout win by 30 over Jacksonville was exactly what Los Angeles needed. Building momentum off that huge victory I look for LA to come up big again here. Yes, they lost to the Cardinals earlier this season at home but the Rams got the series sweep both SU and ATS each of the two prior seasons. Also, the bad news for the Cards here is that this game is at home. All kidding aside, the fact is that the road team is 5-0 SU/ATS in the Cardinals last 5 games! I look for that trend to continue here as LA is not happy at all about the way the first game between these teams this season played out. They will respond big here. The Rams are two games behind Arizona in the NFC West standings but after tonight there are still 4 games to go in the regular season and LA can move within 1 game of the Cardinals with a win tonight. Look for them to get it as they resume their series dominance plus make it 6 in a row in terms of road team victories in Cards games. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +2.5

NFL NFC North Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43 in Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Decent weather expected for this one with winds near 10 mph, no precipitation and temperatures in the mid-30s. Not bad at all by mid-December Green Bay standards. Also, quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields both expected to start for their respective teams in this one. I know the Bears offense does not excite but Fields was showing some promise with the way he was playing before he ended up out for a few games. His running ability also makes thing tough on defenses. As for Rodgers he often comes up huge in the big game settings and I look for him to do the same in this Sunday night. The Packers are averaging 28 points per game at home this season and are off a bye week which followed GB averaging 33.5 points the prior two games. The Bears have gone over the total in 3 of last 5 games and did score at least 22 points in all 3 of those games. Chicago has allowed 29 points or more in 4 of last 6 games. The Packers have averaged 33.3 points in last 3 games versus Bears and I expect another big effort here in that regard but something tells me the visitors are going to respond huge with getting a boost of momentum with Fields back under center and this game will surprise many by getting into the 50+ range for total points scored. 10* OVER 43 in Green Bay

NFL Non-Conf Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills +3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - The Bills are on short rest this week and the Bucs have regular rest. I certainly understand that factor. However, the fact Buffalo lost at home Monday versus the Patriots and they are 4-0 SU/ATS this season when off a loss has me liking the Bills a ton in this spot. Buffalo won those 4 games by a combined score of 137 to 34 says a lot. No, this game will not be a blowout like that but the point is the Bills respond very well off losses and I like them to at least get the cover in this one. Keep in mind, Buffalo has only lost the money once in last dozen games as a road dog and also they have covered all but 1 of last 10 in non-conference action. Tampa Bay has won and covered 3 in a row but this team was 3-6 ATS on the season prior to that. The Bills have the much better pass defense and rushing offense and I look for both of those factors to help lead the way to a road cover, if not outright win, in this one! 10* BUFFALO +3.5

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Washington Football Team +5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Washington has won and covered 4 in a row overall plus they are at home for this one. They beat Dallas in both meetings last season and are playing with a lot of confidence and momentum right now. The Cowboys had failed, both SU and ATS, in 3 of last 4 before the win over the Saints last week. I know Dallas has a little rest edge coming into this one since they last played on Thursday but the Football Team is really starting to believe they can make a run for post-season and absolutely have a shot at 5 in a row here and can narrow gap with Cowboys. Keep in mind they face them again at Dallas in two weeks. Huge game today and value with the home dog. 8* WASHINGTON +5

CFB Blowout Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 34.5 in Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen @ 3 ET - This series has a recent history of unders but this one is going to play out different. Since they demoted their offensive coordinator after an ugly start to the season, Navy has scored an average of 23 points per game and they did averaged 36.5 points last two games of the season. Army has scored an average of 35.5 points per game this season. Now, of course, I am well aware that these are option teams which helps the defenses of each team because they are use to seeing the option often, including plenty of it in practice throughout the season. However, I still feel this total is far too low considering the numbers I just mentioned above. We are not likely to see numbers quite that big here but I am expecting at least a  24-17 or 27-20 type game here and that gets us well past the posted total on this game. 10* OVER 34.5 in Army

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers are off a key divisional win versus Baltimore where their defense had to give a tremendous effort. Now it is a short week situation for them and they may struggle to slow down the Vikings on the road here. The over is 2-0 in Pittsburgh's last two road games. The over is 3-0 in Minnesota's last 3 games overall. While I do fully expect the Vikes to score well here (Dalvin Cook is expected to be ready to go here), I do not trust this Minny defense at all. The Vikings off a disheartening last second loss to the Lions. Note that Minnesota has now allowed 28 points or more in 3 straight games and 5 of their last 7. Pittsburgh has allowed 27 points or more in 3 of last 4 road games and the Steelers gave up 41 in each of last two road games! 10* OVER 43.5 in Minnesota

NFL ESPN Blowout - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The weather is going to be quite bad tonight in terms of winds which is going to make the ground game more important in this one. Statistically, both teams are solid in terms of running the ball but in terms of rush defense the Bills rate much better. That plus home field could make a huge difference in this game. Also, in terms of cold weather familiarity and dealing with blustery winds, Bills QB Josh Allen played his college ball at Wyoming while Mac Jones played at Alabama. These couple keys I just mentioned may seem like minor ones but they do carry some weight here and can be a difference maker in a key divisional battle like this. The Patriots have certainly been the hotter team of late but I like the Bills in this one at home and looking to make up for the embarrassing effort against the Colts the last time they played here at Orchard Park. 10* BUFFALO -2.5

NFL SNF Blowout - 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - This looks like the perfect spot for the Chiefs to put it all together. They are facing a rival they typically dominate. They are coming off a bye week. They have won 4 straight. Speaking of 4 straight wins, Kansas City has won last 4 meetings with Broncos by sweeping them each of past two seasons. The Chiefs beat Denver by an average margin of 19.3 points in those 4 wins. I know the Sunday Night pointspread may seem a little steep but don't let it scare you away. Remember, before last week's Broncos win Denver lost by 17 at home versus the Eagles. Also, the Chiefs have played the tougher schedule this season thusfar in comparison with Denver as KC has had games against Buffalo, Tennessee, and Green Bay. This game is priced high for a season and I expect a huge game from Mahomes with the advantage of the added prep time and I look for the Chiefs defense to really get after Bridgewater in this one. The KC defense will have their ears pinned back and they have allowed 17 or less points in 5 of last 6 games. More of the same here. 10* KANSAS CITY