Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #106 - 8* Rice Owls (+) vs Baylor Bears @ 8 ET Friday - Rice certainly fits the definition of "ugly dog" in this match-up but, simply put, the points being offered here are quite generous when you consider all the factors in this match-up. Keep in mind that, like the Owls, the Bears are also 0-2 ATS this season. They continue to be overvalued and truly, are not playing as well under interim coach Jim Grobe in comparison with the pre-scandal days. The Baylor program has certainly been impacted and this is their first road game of the season while also being Rice's first home game and the Owls made some significant upgrades to their facility that were completed this summer and Rice has been looking forward to this game with great anticipation. Bears interim head coach Grobe, after back to back ATS losses to start this season, is on a 1-13 ATS run as a non-conference favorite of 7 points or more. Though he and the Bears may win this big, I don't see them covering the current number of 31.5 points. Last week Baylor was tied at the half with SMU as penalties also have hurt the Bears early this season. This Bears team has quite a bit of inexperience and immaturity that has impacted them and I foresee another non-covering win here for Baylor. Grobe has no reason to run up the score on head coach David Bailiff and the Owls but don't be surprised if this one is much closer than many would expect. Rice had an awful season on defense last year but they returned most of those starters. Facing Western Kentucky's fantastic passing attack and Army's dominating ground game (both games on the road) back to back is a tough way to start the season. Now, at home, and playing with revenge from a 70-17 beating at Baylor last year, the Owls will be hungry for a huge performance at Rice Stadium in Houston. If Art Briles (gone after the scandal) was still the coach at Baylor this one might play out differently. But under coach Grobe (and with the team having been impacted by the off-season issues) this game is unlikely to be decided by more than three TDs. Grobe teams just don't have a knack for running up huge scores and, keep in mind, their big win in week one was against a clearly over-matched FCS team, Northwestern State. Rice is on par with the SMU team that Baylor struggled with through the first half last week and, keep in mind, that game was in Waco. The Owls keep this one respectable in their home opener. 8* RICE OWLS Friday

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs New York Jets @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Certainly the Bills offense was ugly in their 13-7 loss at Baltimore last week. Definitely this is a revenge spot for the Jets after Buffalo went 2-0 against them last season with the season finale win keeping the Jets from the playoffs. However, all of that said, Bills coach Rex Ryan has a special disdain for his former team, the Jets, and he and the entire city of Buffalo will "bring it" again tonight. I definitely like the value afforded by the line move here as the Bills opened up as a 3 point favorite but are now a 1.5 point dog as of very early gameday morning. Some key ATS stats are certainly in our favor here. Buffalo is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they are off of a game where they scored less than 10 points. Also, the Bills are 5-1 ATS when they are in the first of back to back home games. With this being Buffalo's home opener, and with a home game on deck with a strong Arizona team, the Bills will be "all in" to win this game which certainly strengthens the validity of that 5-1 ATS mark in this spot. As for the Jets, note the Bills did open up as a FG fave here and certainly it would not surprise me to see this line move back to where Buffalo ends up being favored in this game. Should that occur, note that the Jets are 1-6 ATS as road dogs of less than 4 points. Though the Bills have struggled on the road in recent seasons (and that continued in Week 1) they are a different team at home. Buffalo is 16-8 ATS in home games the past 3 seasons combined. The Jets lost a handful of starters from the defense in the off-season and I expect that side of the ball to be their downfall this season. In their season opener the Jets allowed the Bengals to complete 23 of 30 passes for 324 yards. The Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with a posted line between +3 and -3 the last 3 seasons combined. Buffalo is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional games. The Bills also are on a 4-0 ATS run in home openers. Orchard Park, NY will be rocking tonight as a big home win over a hated rival will do wonders for this team and they are starting to believe that they can finally break their 17-year post-season drought as they have inched closer to being a playoff team the past two seasons with a 9-7 record in 2014 and playing .500 ball in 2015. The Bills laid an egg last week on offense against the Ravens but they've shown a history of bouncing back after ugly efforts like that on the offensive side of the ball. Look for the Bills to play another solid defensive game to complement a bounce back performance on offense that attacks the Jets suspect secondary. 8* BUFFALO BILLS Thursday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #103/104 - 8* OVER in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Houston Cougars @ 7:30 ET Thursday - I don't foresee many defensive stops in this game. The fact that the Bearcats only allowed 20 points at Purdue last week doesn't really give an accurate picture of the way the Boilermakers moved the ball. Cincinnati was saved by 5 turnovers in that game because the Cats D allowed over 500 yards! Houston's offense is NOT turnover-prone and, especially with QB Ward and RB Catalon back for this one, the Cougars are unlikely to be stopped by the Cincinnati defense. What I do like about the Bearcats is that they have an offense that, similar to Houston, can move quickly up and down the field. Cincinnati had over 500 yards of offense last week and that was against a Big Ten team. The weak link for the Cougars defense is their secondary and the Bearcats have the personnel and the offensive coordinator to take full advantage of that. We are getting extra line value here because these teams have combined to go 4-0 to the under this season. Also, there is a lot of long-term trending that also points to the under in this match-up. The fact is that the way these teams combined for 175 plays on offense last week, you know another fast-paced game is on tap tonight at Nippert Stadium and the weather is also going to be perfect in Cincy tonight. In the last two meetings between these foes, each team scored at least 30 points in each game. More of the same here with each team likely to get to at least 35 in this one. These offenses both love to push the tempo. 8* OVER in Cincinnati Thursday

Monday Night Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #479 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 7:10 ET Monday - We're getting some line value here since running back LeVeon Bell is out for the Steelers (for the first 3 games) and also wide receiver Martavis Bryant is suspended for this season. The key is that the Pittsburgh ground game has ample support behind Bell and, there also is reason to believe that one of the top passing offenses in the league will again do just fine here. Remember the retirement of Hines Ward before the 2012 season? Or how about the departures of Mike Wallace in 2013 and Emmanuel Sanders in 2014? No matter what the situation, the Steelers have consistently found other guys ready to "step up" and pair with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to provide great complimentary firepower to #1 wide receiver Antonio Brown. I don't expect this to be any different against the Washington Redskins on Monday night as the Steelers have some talent that could "step up" once again with guys like Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers. With the Steelers on the road and with the impact of the suspension, this potential Super Bowl contender is priced at very low number and that price has dropped a little making 3 a "win number" now for Pittsburgh. That means it is now "go time" for me. The Redskins have a history of struggling (5-16 ATS) in Monday night home games. Also, even though Washington is a home dog here, that is a role that - when not facing an NFC East foe - has seen the 'Skins go 4-9 ATS overall in recent seasons. Outside of their division, the Redskins don't look so strong! As I wrote in my NFL Preview analysis prior to the season, the problem with the Redskins in my opinion, from a “value” standpoint, is that many will be on the Washington bandwagon early on when looking at the NFC East. That’s because of the Cowboys dealing with the Romo injury coupled with the fact that Washington won the division last season. As I noted then, I am expecting to see some nice “go against” ATS spots with the Redskins early this season in particular. That said, here is our first one as, sure enough, some Washington money is coming in and knocking this line down and the line was already 'short' in my opinion. The Steelers are one of the best teams in the league, the Redskins are not even necessarily the best team in the NFC East - a division that arguably could go to any of the 4 teams. Take advantage of the value here with the Bell suspension. 8* PITTSBURGH Monday.

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while only going 8-16 ATS on the road during this same stretch. I look for the road struggles to continue in a very tough "first test" missing some key players early this season. Rob Gronkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury and of course then there is the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season). That the Pats will have Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an impact here against a tough Cardinals team. Even though the line has been adjusted due to the situation with these two key players, it is not enough. Keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tougher match-ups for New England just like this one at Arizona! Garoppolo has had only 31 passing attempts in his NFL career. He is a back-up for a reason! While the Pats have thrived in the AFC East it is impressive what Arizona has done outside of the NFC West! The Cards are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games outside of their division. The Cardinals are one of the most balanced teams as they are so "stacked" on both sides of the ball and the Cards are so well coached. Arizona has gotten off to fast starts under Bruce Arians in each of his three seasons and this not just SU but also at the betting window as they are 11-4 ATS in their first 5 games over the 3 seasons. With Garoppolo, and not Brady, leading the Pats this is the perfect time to fade Bill Belichick as Cardinals coach Arians is one of the best in the league and he's got the better personnel on the field for this one plus home field edge. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Cowboys lost 11 of their 12 games without Tony Romo last season and, of course, that is the big story line coming into the new season after he got hurt in the preseason. One of the big keys here is that Dak Prescott is being hailed for his preseason performance with Dallas and that he should hit the ground running for the Cowboys here in Game one. The problem with that angle is that regular season is nothing like preseason. The trouble for Prescott is not going to be his athletic ability or his arm strength or his legs. The problem is going to be making proper adjustments to all the defensive sets he's going to see with stunts, blitzes, etc that are the type of things Prescott did not see in the preseason. The Giants offense can take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is missing some starters early this season due to suspension. With head coach McAdoo (former Packers OC), a Giants offense that ranked in the top ten of the league last season is likely to make strides again this season as they've added even more firepower. The defense also looks improved after a big spend in free agency and the Cowboys have only covered 3 of their last 14 games. Also, Dallas has long been known for struggling in their home stadium and they are actually and ugly 1-7 ATS in home openers! These teams are bitter rivals and the Giants have lost to the Cowboys in a season opener 3 of the last 4 years and now it is payback time as NY has the big edges in this season opener. Let's also not forget we're fading a Dallas team here that won only 4 games last season and that has struggled so badly when Romo is not under center. More of the same here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Early Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #458 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET Sunday - After being favored by 7, the Eagles are now down to as a low as a 3 point favorite as of Saturday evening. This is simply an insane line drop and one I will gladly take advantage of. Carson Wentz is not a typical rookie. The Eagles first rookie QB to start the first game of a season since 1939 ran a pro-style offense in college. Additionally, the guy is wise beyond his years and is an extremely intelligent player. He has grasped the Eagles offense much quicker than even the most ardent Wentz supporters could have expected. Not only that but let's not forget this is still an Eagles team that has averaged 9 wins per season the last three years. They're AT HOME and hosting a Browns team that has not won more than 5 games in ANY of the last 8 seasons. It is going to be a phenomenal atmosphere at The Linc in Philly as the fans are thrilled to see Bradford gone and welcome in the Wentz era. The Browns are 14-50 SU in road games the last 8 seasons and this is a very small number in this one after the line move so a Browns loss is very likely to lead to an Eagles cover! Keep in mind that Cleveland will be without WR Josh Gordon for the first 4 games of this season (suspension). The Browns have lost 11 straight season openers by an average margin of a dozen points per defeat. Cleveland enters the new season having lost 10 of its past 11 regular season games and the Eagles have won their season opener in 4 of the last 5 years. I am calling this one a shocker because seemingly everyone has bought into Cleveland since the opening line came out and then AGAIN after the Bradford trade. You know what normally happens in the NFL when the masses are lining up on one side! Give me the Eagles. 8* PHILADELPHIA

#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #463/464 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers @ 1 ET Sunday - What I wrote about the Chargers in my AFC West preview before the season certainly holds true here. As noted in that preview, San Diego has been an “under” team in terms of totals in recent seasons but with the offense staying solid (led by Phillip Rivers) and the defense in for a drop-off (departure of Eric Weddle and other significant starters), this team could be in for some explosive, high-scoring games. I stated in that this could be particularly true early this season as there will most certainly be an “adjustment phase” on the defensive side of the ball. With that said, this early season match-up with Kansas City certainly fits the bill because the Chiefs averaged 27.8 points per game in winning their last 10 games of the regular season last year. Kansas City's head coach will be out to show everyone that the Chiefs offense will be just fine even though last year's offensive coordinator Doug Pederson is now coaching the Philadelphia Eagles. However, on the other side of the ball the Chiefs did lose some depth from last year's solid defense and the injury to star LB Justin Houston certainly hurts. The offense has been ahead of the defense to start the season each of the last two years under coach Reid as the over has gone a combined 6-2 in their first 4 games of each of the two seasons. As for the Chargers, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7.5 points under coach Mike McCoy, the over has gone 5-1 (83%) in regular season action. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City. 

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #367/368 - National TV Best Bet - 10* Top Play OVER 52.5 in Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Tech Hokies in Bristol, TN @ 8 ET  Saturday - This total is currently in the 52.5 range as of Friday afternoon and we're getting great line value here with the over for multiple reasons. For one thing, there are likely to be 150,000 fans (a record!) for this College Football game since it is being played at Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee. These teams both draw so well and this game is being played about halfway between Knoxville, TN and Blacksburg, VA. The point is that it is absolutely going to be an electric atmosphere and the weather is going to be ideal as well with light winds. Another reason we're getting value here is because both teams under-performed last week. Even though Tennessee got the win they are very disappointed (of course) with only putting up 319 yards of offense as a 3 TD fave against Appalachian State last week. Of course the Volunteers likely were peeking ahead to this game and the same is true for Virginia Tech. The Hokies new aggressive fast-paced offense only put up 33 points against Liberty last week as a 31 point favorite. Under new head coach Justin Fuente the pace on offense will be frenetic as he brought over his up-tempo fast-paced style from Memphis. The Hokies did return 8 starters from last year's offense and they had 48 runs and 41 pass attempts last week so look out! The defense though could be an issue for the Hokies with only 6 starters back and they already had regressed last season with one of their worst performances (26.3 points allowed per game) in the Bud Foster era as a defensive coordinator. The over is 7-2 in the Hokies last 9 non-conference games and Virginia Tech is 6-3 to the over in their last 9 games against the SEC. The Volunteers are a perfect 3-0 to the over i their last 3 played on a neutral field. This one, in front of 150,000 fans should have plenty of fireworks as both squads come into this one emphasizing offense. The Vols are not happy at all about their production last week and the Hokies are going to run their offense at a fast-pace this season as we already saw last week. 10* OVER the total in Tennessee Saturday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #373 - Non-Conf Game of the Year - 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET Saturday - North Carolina put up quite a battle at Georgia last week but, after leading 24-14, the Tar Heels then allowed the final 19 points of the game to the Bulldogs. I had Georgia last week and was not surprised by the end result. However, what did surprise me is that, even though Heels starting QB Trubisky struggled some, the Tar Heels truly battled hard against a quality opponent and they now take a big step down in class as they face Illinois. Of course the Illini are now led by head coach Lovie Smith who had spent many years in the NFL. While I have plenty of respect for Mr. Smith it is going to take awhile for him to build this team in the way he wants. Illinois is off of an impressive win in Week 1 but that came against an over-matched Murray State team. Also, the Illini certainly were also helped by a turnover factor of 3-0 in favor of Illinois. The line on this Week 2 game opened up at a 10. Of course the betting markets see a road fave of double digits that ended up blowing their game at Georgia and they see an Illinois team off of a 52-3 win and now a home dog and we all see what then happens to this line. As of Friday afternoon it is down to a 7.5 and though I'd like to have a 7 here it is "go time" for me with this one. While the Illini may be feeling a little too good about themselves after last week's dominating win the Tar Heels come into this game very hungry for a win and they only have James Madison on deck. They blasted Illinois 48-14 last season but coach Larry Fedora has his troops ready for this one and certainly has warned his team that this will be a different Illini team with Lovie Smith at the helm. The problem for Lovie is he returns only 9 starters from last year's team and they are projected to be among the bottom feeders in the Big Ten while the Tar Heels are expected to finish near the top of the ACC. The Illini only returned one starter from their back seven on defense this season and they're trying to stop a UNC offense that ranked 2nd in the ACC and 18th in the nation last year with 487 yards per game. As you can see, this should prove to be a road rout! 10* North Carolina -7.5 Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #337 - Contrarian Cashout - 8* Northern Illinois Huskies +15.5 @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET Saturday - The Bulls have been a popular choice. this week. They are a solid team but to rise from a 12 to all the way about a two TD spread here is a little much. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Huskies had a very late game at Wyoming last week for more reasons than one. Not only was the game time pushed back by bad weather in the area but also it ended up being a triple-overtime thriller. While certainly a game like this that ends (literally) the next morning can be impacting to a team, lets keep in mind a few key points here. One, the Huskies lost the game and are very focused on getting into the win column this week. Two, it is very early in the season (of course) and so this type of effort (while certainly a significant effort) is not going to leave a team totally spent in what will now be just their 2nd game of the season. The Huskies are hungry and they're focused and it also doesn't hurt that this is an evening game Saturday. Much better than had it been a Noon ET start (11 AM on UNI body clocks). Another positive factor here is that Northern Illinois was only an 8-5 team in the regular season last year but they did reach double digits in victories each of the FIVE prior seasons. Yes, they are "only" a MAC team but this is a team that is use to winning. Also, last year they did beat Toledo (a 10-2 team) and their losses to Boston College and Ohio State came by only a combined 10 points! South Florida played "only" an FCS team last week and also running back Marlon Mack is not 100%. Additionally, the Bulls are now the hunted and this is not a role they are use to being in. A lot of points being laid here for a USF team on a 6-14 ATS run as a home favorite. Note that the Huskies are on a 15-4 ATS run as an away dog. I'll grab the big points with a solid QB (Hare back from injury) leading the way in what should be a much closer game than odds makers are calling for. 8* Northern Illinois Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #340 - Daytime Dominator - 8* Duke Blue Devils -5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Both teams are off of season opening wins but while Wake Forest struggled against a Tulane team that has won 3 games or less in 4 of the last 5 years, Duke absolutely blew out their opponent. Granted it was an FCS shool but NC Central was no match for the Blue Devils and allows them to build up confidence heading into this match-up with the Demon Deacons. In last year's meeting Duke never trailed the entire way and they are now 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with 5 straight SU Blue Devils victories. Wake Forest used two quarterbacks in last week's game against Tulane and neither played well as evidenced by the Demon Deacons ending up with a yardage deficit of 280 to 175 versus the Green Wave. Duke did not fare well ATS as a home favorite last season but they had gone 12-3 as a home fave in the three prior seasons so, as you can see, they have generally fared very well in this role. The Demon Deacons are on an ugly 14-24 ATS run as a road dog. Also, Wake Forest's first road game the last 7 years has seen them lose every single not only straight-up but also ATS. 8* Duke Saturday afternoon.

Rickenbach NCAAF Game #303/304 - ESPN2 Game of the Week - 8* UNDER 69 in Syracuse Orange vs Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET Friday - This total opened up at a 64 and surged all the way to as high as a 70.5 before settling in around the 68 to 69 range as of late afternoon Thursday. I completely understand the original upward surge as the Orange are going to an uptempo offense this season and the Cardinals are off of a game where they scored 70 points! However, this total is over-inflated and offering great value to the under. The key reasons are that Syracuse faced an FCS school, Colgate, last week and still only put up 33 points. The Orange offense is going to go through some growing pains and they now face a Louisville defense that allowed only 333 yards per game last season to rank 18th in the nation! Most of that defense returned this season and the Cardinals will be tough to score on. Last week the Cards held Charlotte to just 14 points and only 208 total yards of offense! New Syracuse head coach Dino Babers wants to move at a fast pace with his offense but he also is focused on a run game that only totaled 117 yards on the ground (3.3 yards per carry) against Colgate last week. Babers knows that not running some clock against a powerful Louisville team could be asking for a blowout loss at home so he'll have to run a little more this week and try to keep the pace reasonable. With that said, and knowing how tough this Louisville defense is, I just don't see this game getting to this elevated O/U total. The Cardinals also have a huge game on deck with Florida State so if they do (as expected) get a big lead here they will likely start peeking ahead to the Seminoles and they certainly can't be overly concerned about running up the score. Keep in mind that the Carrier Dome can be a loud venue for road teams to try to execute their offense in. This is likely to be another factor in how this game plays out. The Orange defense allowed only 22 points per game in home games last season and, even though they faced an outclassed Colgate team last week, that solid performance on defense is still a confidence booster for what lies ahead here with Louisville. The under is on a 10-6 run in Cardinals games in conference action. In conference action, the Orange are on a long-term 73-50 run to the under. 8* UNDER in Syracuse Friday night.

Rickenbach NFL Game #451/452 - Primetime Punisher - 8* OVER 41.5 in Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:30 ET Thursday - The weather forecast in Denver looks great with clear skies and light winds. The big concern out of Denver is at the QB position post-Manning but Trevor Siemian earned this start and is a highly intelligent and confident player who will not be rattled in this situation. Let's also not forget that the Broncos were actually outgained in all 3 of their playoff wins in last year's post-season. We all know it was definitely time for Peyton Manning to "hang it up". The point is that Denver's offense is quite likely to move the ball better than many are expecting here. I like to be a contrarian (particularly in the NFL) and I love the fact that this game opened up at a 43.5 on the total and has now dropped to as low as a 41 in some spots as of early gameday morning. Even though the Broncos still have a solid defense, lets not forget that Carolina is a high-powered attack on offense that is also very hungry for this shot at revenge after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. The Panthers offense averaged 31 points per game last season and they were on a 12-4 run to the over heading into the Super Bowl. "The Game" stayed under the total but the Panthers have lost some key personnel from their secondary and I wouldn't be surprised to see the vaunted defense of Carolina have a drop-off. This will be particularly true early this season. However, Cam Newton and Company get things rolling on offense in their "2nd shot" at this Broncos defense and they'll be ready to go. The over is 12-5 in Panthers road games the past two seasons. More of the same tonight as this game is highly unlikely to play out like the Super Bowl did. 8* OVER in Denver Thursday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #212 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET Monday - The Seminoles simply return too much talent in comparison with the Rebels. While Florida State returns nearly their entire offense from last season and much of a solid defensive unit as well, Ole Miss returns very little especially on the offensive side of the ball. Yes they have their ultra talented QB back and certainly have a huge experience edge at the QB position. However, the Rebels are essentially rebuilding their offense (other than the QB spot) and their rebuilding process on the offensive line is bad news when you're facing a Seminoles defense that has an extremely talented and veteran defensive line. Look for this to be a mismatch in the trenches and that should help lead the Noles to a solid win by a comfortable margin in this one. The Seminoles not only essentially have home field edge here with this "neutral site game" being played in Orlando, they also have the hunger factor working in their favor. Both of these teams went into their bowl games last year as a 7.5 point favorite. While the Rebels won theirs by 4 TDs the Noles lost theirs by 2 TDs. FSU has been anxious to get back on the field ever since and I expect the Seminoles to roll through the Rebels like a buzzsaw in this one. Though the Noles have a redshirt freshman QB he is ultra-talented and the Seminoles are also loaded at the other skill positions including phenomenal running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Travis Rudolph. 8* FLORIDA STATE Monday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #209/210 - Primetime Punisher - 8* OVER 58.5 in Texas Longhorns vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET Sunday - This total was as high as a 60.5 and then has dropped to as low as a 58.5 as of early gameday morning. I think we're getting extreme line value on the over when you consider some key changes on the Longhorns side of the ball coming into this season. First off, the Horns averaged 27 points per game last season while Notre Dame averaged 35 points per game. Based on that alone, we already have value with this number here. But the big key is that Texas has installed an up-tempo offense under new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert. The Longhorns have the right personnel to spread the field with their receivers while also having a pounding running game inside but, most important of all, they will move at a fast pace. That is going to increase scoring this season and Notre Dame's weakness (once again this season) is on the defensive side of the ball. As for the offense of the Fighing Irish they will again be very explosive. Their facing a Longhorns defense that has big concerns in terms of currently going through a youth movement (particularly on the defensive line) and I just don't see many stops happening for either D in this one! Look for a fast-paced tempo to this one as each O is able to attack the weakness of the defenses in this one. The over is 3-1 (75%) in Notre Dame's road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points the past two seasons. The over is 7-1 (88%) long-term in Longhorns games where they are a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. That's a combined 10-2 (83%) angle working in our favor here. We'll take it! 8* OVER the total in Texas Sunday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #206 - Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Arizona Wildcats +2.5 vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 10:30 PM ET Saturday - Tremendous line move here as the Wildcats have gone all the way from being 2.5 point faves to being 2.5 point dogs in this match-up. I do understand what many are looking at here. BYU is a veteran team and has the much better defense in comparing numbers with that of Arizona. Also, the Cougars "veteran" team is defined by a lot of returning starters on the offensive side of the ball including a big, experienced offensive line. This is viewed as a mismatch going against the smallish defensive line of the Wildcats. However, here are the keys that combat all this. Speedy linemen have a way of shooting the gaps when facing bigger opposition and speed kills. Arizona's defensive line may surprise with how they perform in this game. Additionally, Rich Rodriguez is in his fifth year as the head coach at Arizona while Kalani Sitake is not only in his first year as BYU's head coach, it is the first year he's been a head coach anywhere. Additionally, being an independent means the Cougars don't have conference games to look forward to. What motivates a team like this is a game like exactly what they have on deck next week. Brigham Young has a huge revenge match-up in their "Holy War" battle at Utah. The Cougars were absolutely embarrassed in last year's 35-28 bowl loss to the Utes in which BYU was down 35-0 in the first quarter. They can't help but have their sights set on that upcoming big-game match-up next week especially since the Cougars have now lost five straight to Utah! Arizona will have the home field edge (though this game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium) and the Wildcats are a Pac 12 offensive juggernaut. The Cats averaged 37 points per game last season and BYU (already peeking ahead to the Utes revenge game) simply is not going to be able to keep up in this one. Look for Rodriguez to outcoach Sitake in the latter's head coaching debut. 10* ARIZONA late Saturday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Georgia Bulldogs -3 vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 5:30 PM ET Saturday - Two quality teams in this match-up but considering the short line and the SEC vs ACC angle, there is great line value with a Bulldogs team that is also accustomed to playing in the Georgia Dome. This is truly not a "neutral site" game as the venue favors Georgia in a big way. The Bulldogs have a big edge on defense as North Carolina ranked much worse on yardage allowed than points allowed per game last season. In other words, the Tar Heels were fortunate and that defense now has to put up with the battering ram that is Nick Chubb and the powerful Bulldogs ground game. North Carolina got torched by teams with solid rushing attacks last season and this does not bode well for their opening game this season. The Bulldogs have a new head coach and he wants to get off of on the right foot. The Tar Heels have Fedora who is in his 5th year at North Carolina. Last year UNC lost their opener to South Carolina and they face a much tougher SEC opponent this time around. A big key here is that the Bulldogs are 29-7 SU and 25-10-1 in their last 36 games against ACC competition. The past two seasons Georgia went 7-3 ATS in non-conference action while North Carolina went 3-7 ATS in non-conference action. Two high-quality programs but SEC continues to hold the upper hand and the Tar Heels have lost 4 straight games (including 0-4 ATS) played on neutral sites. New Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was the DC at Alabama the past 9 seasons and he played at Georgia for 4 years in the late 90's. It's a new era beginning post-Mark Richt and the Bulldogs led the SEC in pass defense last year and returned all the starters from their secondary. The Tar Heels have had some big offensive production highlight their reason campaigns but they don't have the defense to hang tough in this one. The Bulldogs have the superior defense. The Heels improved with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik last season but the way they fell off late in the season all the way through to their bowl game was quite alarming. Great line value on the more "settled" team here. 8* GEORGIA Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #160 - High Noon Top Blowout - 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats -4.5 vs Western Michigan Broncos @ Noon ET Saturday - You can tell by the line movement on this game (downward) that many are looking at the Broncos as an underdog in this early Saturday match-up. I completely respect Western Michigan as a MAC team but that is the key to the equation surrounding my big play on Northwestern in this match-up. The Wildcats are a Big Ten team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their non-conference games last year. Note that the Broncos went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS outside of the MAC last season. I am well aware of the fact that Western Michigan has gone bowling each of the last two years and has been a team on the rise in the MAC. However, the last time they played Northwestern they got rolled by a 3 TD margin and the Wildcats have won 8 of their last 9 home openers. With this line moving down there is even more value on Northwestern here as we laying a rather small number against a team from an inferior conference. Remember last year the Wildcats home opener featured an upset win over Stanford. Even though Western Michigan is no Stanford (in terms of motivation for a big win) there is no way that the Wildcats will overlook the Broncos as Northwestern has Illinois State on deck. That means there is definitely no lookahead factor here. The Wildcats were very strong on defense last year and return 6 starters from that D which gives them a huge edge in comparing the defensive capabilities of these two teams. Northwestern allowed only 16 points per game last year while Western Michigan allowed 28 points per game. Over the last 25 years the Broncos are 3-26 SU against Big Ten teams. Over this same period, the Wildcats are 12-5 SU against MAC teams. Big difference in terms of the level of competition and I feel this is a very reasonable line on the superior team whom also has the home field edge. Lay it. 10* NORTHWESTERN early Saturday. 

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #154 - Breakfast Bash - 8* Boston College Eagles +3 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (game played in Ireland) @ 7:30 AM ET Saturday - One of the big advantages that the Yellow Jackets generally have over their opponents is that they don't have a lot of time to prep for the option. Of course that is not the case when it comes to this season opening game against Boston College. The Eagles have had plenty of time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Tech. On top of that, Boston College had one of the top defenses in the nation last year and the Eagles return 15 starters this season while the Yellow Jackets are returning only 11 starters. Boston College ranks a big edge when you compare these two defenses and also ranks an edge in terms of the all-important experience factor that is so critical especially early in the season. The Yellow Jackets have made it easy on themselves in recent years by not scheduling FBS opposition to open the season. That changes this year with not only facing an FBS school but facing one of the teams with the best defenses in the country (particularly against the run) and facing them in Ireland on top of all that! The last time the Jackets faced an FBS school to open up a season they were held to just 17 points. The Eagles allowed only 15 points per game last season. The Yellow Jackets allowed 26 points per game last season. The Boston College offense is sure to show some improvement and facing a defense that is only returning 5 starters from last season certainly helps in that regard. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE early Saturday morning.

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #150 - ESPN Game of the Week - 8* Colorado Buffaloes -8 vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET Friday - In a rivalry game it is often enticing to grab the points with the underdog. In fact, the dog in this series is 13-6-1 ATS. However, prior to last year's OT win for the Buffaloes, 5 of the 7 prior meetings had been decided by a margin of at least 14 points. I expect another lopsided win in this year's match-up between these fierce rivals as Colorado simply has a huge edge in experience and the Rams have major concerns on defense. While the Buffs return 18 starters from last year, Colorado State only returns 10 starters. Particularly concerning for the Rams is that they lost their defensive coordinator from last year and they also lost all the starters from the defensive line and some of their best players in the secondary as well. CSU is likely to struggle in the trenches early this season and also will be susceptible to blown coverages downfield. In other words, the Rams are in trouble as they are unlikely to stop either the run game or the passing attack of a Pac 12 Buffaloes team that went 3-1 in non-conference action last season and averaged 38 points per game. Colorado is very experienced on the defensive side of the ball and coordinator Jim Leavitt is now in his 2nd season with the program and he has more experienced personnel to work with this season. Leavitt's blitz packages and the "stunts" will keep the Rams offense from getting comfortable in this one. This game is being played in Denver where the Buffaloes have won 6 of the last 8 with an average margin of victory of 13 points. Look for the Rams to drop to 1-4 ATS a neutral field underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* COLORADO Friday

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #143/144 - Thursday Thrasher - 8* OVER 55.5 in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Oregon State Beavers @ 9 ET Thursday - The Golden Gophers are going to a new offense under offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who was previously with Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns saw 8 of their 12 games last season total at least 57 points. The point is that the Minnesota offense is going to be quite different this season as Johnson was running a pistol formation with a spread offense at UL-Lafayette. The Golden Gophers do have excellent talent at the skill positions and their emphasis is on offense coming into the new season. They're certainly facing the right opponent to enjoy success on that side of the ball as the Oregon State defense returns only 4 starters and lost their best player from the defensive line, linebacking corps, and secondary. That doesn't bode well for what to expect in 2016 from a defense that allowed a ridiculous 562 yards per game on the road last year! So the key to this play on the over is the Beavers offense being able to hang tough in this match-up and I feel they will do just that. The Minny defense is certainly no juggernaut and the Beavers now have Utah State transfer Darell Garretson at QB. He was recruited by current Oregon State head coach Gary Andersen and early indications are that he is going to thrive in this offense. The Beavers do have solid athleticism with key returning talent at the skill positions. They started slow on offense last year but Garretson and Company appear ready to hit the ground running right out of the chute last year. The Beavers did averaged 27.3 points per game in their last 4 road games last year and I am expecting a 42-28 or 41-27 type of game here. The weather forecast is perfect in Minneapolis for tonight as well. 8* OVER 55.5 in Minnesota Thursday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Denver Broncos +6 vs Carolina @ 6:30 ET Sunday February, 7th - This line has gone all the way from an opener of a 4 all the way up to a 6 as of a week and a half before the game. I could wait longer but truly would be shocked if this goes all the way up to a 7. That's why I am pulling the trigger now that we're seeing solid +6 available. At least we've achieved one key number (6) and, as noted above, I really don't see this getting all the way to a 7. However, it certainly is apparent that the whole world is enthralled with Carolina after the beatdown they put on Arizona in the NFC Championship. This is giving some exceptional line value to Denver in the Super Bowl. Denver beat a very experienced Patriots team to get here. In and of itself, that says a lot about these Broncos. I feel that all the tight games Denver has been involved in this season are going to carry a ton of weight in this Super Bowl. Carolina's win over the Cardinals in the NFC Championship was honestly almost "too easy" and let's not forget they were also afforded a rather easy win in the divisional round. That's because the Panthers took advantage of a Seahawks team that didn't even belong there. Honestly, Seattle never should have got past the Vikings the week before as that missed Minnesota field goal will live on in infamy. All this said, I feel that battle-tested Denver is where the value is in the Super Bowl match-up. The Broncos have the Super Bowl experience edge with Gary Kubiak over Ron Rivera. Kubiak has a big edge in terms of player experience and in terms of assistant coaching experience in the Super Bowl in comparison with Rivera. Denver is now 14-4 on the season with only two losses by more than 3 points. The Panthers 17-1 mark on the season certainly is exceptional but note that their last 3 games away from Carolina featured their one outright loss and the other two games were both victories BUT they came by just 3 points apiece. The Broncos aren't going to go way easily in this one, not after being thoroughly embarrassed in that 43 to 8 debacle in the Super Bowl two years ago. Denver and Peyton Manning are ready to make amends for that horrific effort. Grab the points for a *10* Top Play with the Broncos.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play UNDER 45 in Denver vs Carolina @ 6:30 ET Sunday, February 7th - This number tried to get 45.5 but failed to really hold up there so, as of about a week and a half in front of kickoff this total is still sitting on a key number (45) and that means it's time for me to get into play here. The last under we've seen in a Super Bowl was four years ago and I had the under in that one between the Giants and Patriots. What is crazy is that we've now seen three straight overs in the Super Bowl and this seems like the perfect match-up for that streak to finally come to an end. This match-up features the two top defenses in the league. Carolina's win over Arizona marked the 7th time in their last 10 games that the Panthers held their opponent to 20 points or less. Denver's win over New England marked the 12th time in 18 games this season that the Broncos have held their opponent to 20 points or less. Look for the Broncos to rely heavily on their defense to try and keep this game tight. Denver will look to chew up clock with a run-heavy game and a passing attack dominated by short passes to keep the clock moving. The Broncos want to eat up clock and keep Cam Newton and Company off of the field. However, even when Newton is out there, let's not forget the bend but don't break defense that the Broncos have displayed throughout this season. That includes the big win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game where the Broncos solid defense battled hard on countless drives to preserve the win over the Pats. Both defenses truly have been firing on all cylinders and I look for this to be the lowest scoring Super Bowl we've seen in quite some time as let's also not forget that the field at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California certainly isn't known as a fast track for offensive production! The UNDER 45 is my Top Play Total for the Super Bowl.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Carolina @ 6:40 ET - While I have a ton of respect for Carolina (and successfully rode them to victory over Seattle last week), I firmly believe there is a reason this line is so small. It's enticing for bettors to back a Panthers team at home that is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS as a host this season. However, the Panthers did show a lot of vulnerability when they almost blew their game against Seattle last week and, make no mistake about it, getting past the Seahawks was a major hurdle for Carolina. The Panthers, invariably, are likely to have trouble coming up with a second straight huge effort both physically and mentally after knocking off a Seattle team that had beaten them three straight times. When a team finally shakes free of a nemesis like Carolina did by knocking off the Hawks last week, they often have trouble in the next game. Last week's game was very taxing both mentally and physically for the Panthers. Now, by no means and I am saying the Cardinals had an "easy" win over the Packers last week but the Pack certainly are not a nemesis of the Cards and Arizona rolls into this week's game with plenty of confidence as they have had a fantastic season. Let's not forget that last season was very promising for the Cardinals before the injury situation at the QB position and it was Ryan Lindley under center in the playoff loss to the Panthers last season. Now it's Carson Palmer back under center for this rematch and, just as Carolina finally got by a nemesis last week, I look for the Cardinals to get their revenge in this rematch of a playoff game from early January last year. In games with a line between +3 and -3 the Cardinals have gone 13-3 ATS the past three seasons. As a road dog of 3 points or less the past three season Arizona has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS. As strong as the Panthers have been, they have been outgained in three straight games and it catches up with them here as they took advantage of some fortuitous circumstances in the win over the Seahawks. Seattle was fortunate to even make it to Carolina as they really should not have gotten past Minnesota (the 27 yard field goal miss in the final seconds will never be forgotten by Vikings fans). The Panthers certainly face a much tougher challenge this week as unlike the case when the Seahawks traveled to Carolina last week, this week the Cardinals come to town with a rest edge (played Saturday) and also off of a home playoff game rather than a road game and also the Panthers don't have the extra added edge of a bye week like they had before hosting the Hawks. Look for Arizona to avenge last year's playoff defeat by getting revenge with a healthy Carson Palmer leading the way at QB on Sunday night!

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -3 @ Denver @ 3 ET - The Patriots are playing this game with revenge for two reasons. One is the ridiculous regular season loss this past season where the Pats were up 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter and then muffed a punt and went on to lose in overtime by a 30-24 score. The other reason for "playoff revenge" is that the Pats lost at Denver two years ago in the post-season. New England got some measure of revenge by winning huge in a regular season match-up in November of 2014 but the loss this past November (couple with this being their first playoff meeting since the January of 2014 loss) makes this revenge angle a huge one here. The Patriots are a fantastic 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) when playing with revenge the past three seasons combined. By the way, this is not a short-term success story for the Patriots either. The long-term numbers show a 57-34 ATS mark when playing with revenge. The Pats also are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and I'll take the current Tom Brady over the current Peyton Manning any day of the week. Manning certainly did not impress in last week's win over the injury-plagued Steelers and now he takes on a Patriots team that has gotten much healthier in recent weeks and the offense has what it takes (especially when healthy) to cause problems for the Denver defense. The Broncos have not covered a game since December 6th when they won big at San Diego. Look for this game to make it 6 straight games for Denver without a cover as I look for the Patriots to dominate this game on their way to another Super Bowl appearance.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7 @ Denver @ 4:40 ET Sunday - Of course there are some injury concerns here with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown of the Steelers but I just can't imagine Big Ben not being able to go in this game. Even if Brown is held out the Steelers still have plenty of weapons. Pittsburgh's offense really carved up the Broncos in their recent late season match-up and they can do it again here. Plus, think about his, why is Pittsburgh now +7 when they were -7 at home against the Broncos! Is home field really that huge? Of course it's not. Even though Manning is back for Denver he's been nowhere near the guy he once was. Why else was Osweiler playing? The fact is that this Broncos offense has had issues throughout this season and certainly padded their record with some fortunate wins. Now certainly my hat is off to the Broncos defense as they have been rock solid but the Steelers offense ranks among the most dynamic in the league and no offense was stronger than Pittsburgh in the latter half of the season as the Steelers were simply blowing defenses up. I think the Steelers defense comes into this game ready to roll again and already having knowledge of the Big Ben and Antonio situation. That said, the collapse we saw from the Pittsburgh D after Ben went down in the Cincy game won't be repeated here. Look for the Steelers D to give another stellar effort here but this time for the full sixty. With that said, there is certainly tremendous value being offered here with the big points. Pittsburgh is 12-4 ATS against teams with a winning record the past three seasons. Also, the Steelers are 6-3 ATS this season in games played on grass. Denver has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 playoff games and Manning is not what he once was and I certainly wouldn't trust Osweiler in this spot. That said, I'll gladly grab the big points here. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET Sunday - This play from me is certainly not "out of spite" as I did easily win my pick on Minnesota plus the points against Seattle on Sunday; but, have you ever seen a team get as lucky as Seattle did in that game? The point is that the Seahawks were truly outplayed for most of that game and yet they still got the win over the Vikings thanks to a missed "chip shot" field goal with under a minute to go. The point is that Seattle truly doesn't belong here and they now face a much tougher situation than they did last week at Minnesota. Yes, I know that this is a revenge game for the Hawks because they had a home loss to the Panthers earlier this season. However, Carolina is no Minnesota and I don't like what I am seeing from this Seattle offense right now. You can bet the Panthers intense defense (especially on their home turf) is going to give Russell Wilson and Company all sorts of trouble in this one. Of course let's not forget that Carolina went 8-0 at home this season. They covered 6 of those 8 home games and the fact this line dropped from a -3 to a -2.5 is also giving us good odds on the Panthers covering this one should they keep that perfect SU home record intact. The Seahawks are 3-6 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points the past three seasons. Also, one could certainly argue that the Panthers revenge angle here is bigger than that of the Seahawks. Yes, Carolina did win at Seattle earlier this season but last year, despite a yardage edge for the game, the Panthers lost a playoff game at Seattle. Also, Carolina has lost each of their last two home games against Seattle. In other words, it's payback time and the set up here for a rested Panthers team against a Seahawks team off of tight, physical, fortunate victory in brutal cold last week absolutely favors Carolina in a huge way here. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +7 @ Arizona @ 8:15 ET Saturday - On paper, the Cardinals should be able to crush the Packers and, in fact, that is just what they did when these teams met in Arizona just a few weeks ago and the Cards annihilated Green Bay. However, let's not forget that the Packers were in a very flat spot there. They were off of a key road win on the West Coast the week before as the Pack knocked off the Raiders in Oakland. Also, it was a true 'sandwich spot' in addition to being a flat spot as the Packers had a huge game on deck with Minnesota. Green Bay was, of course, battling the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC North Division. The Packers also had some key injury issues when they traveled to Arizona. With all that said, the only thing the 38-8 beating does (in my mind) is mean that this is a huge revenge game for a very talented Green Bay team that got their offense back on track in their big win at Washington last week AND that possesses a very talented, solid defense. Green Bay has been particularly strong against the pass this season and that is a key to slowing down Arizona. The Packers ugly loss at Arizona a few weeks ago had a lot to do with turnovers moreso than just domination in all facets of the game. In other words, and especially with team leader QB Aaron Rodgers back on track, the Packers can (and should) absolutely hang tough in this rematch. The Cardinals ugly season-ending loss to Seattle certainly has left a little doubt in their minds about just how good they really are and they also could be looking ahead to a potential rematch with their hated division rival as the Seahawks visit Carolina Sunday. If the Cards underestimate the Packers (and they just might) I would not be surprised to see GB win this outright but, even if the Cardinals don't underestimate the Pack, this is a game that should be very close all the way through. So there is excellent value with the big points here and Arizona only went 1-4 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Packers went 6-3 SU and ATS in road games this season also a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this season when playing with revenge.

Rickenbach NFL *8* New England Patriots -5 vs Kansas City @ 4:35 ET Saturday - Revenge game for the Patriots after they were embarrassed last season in a Monday Night Football drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs 41-14 on September 29th of last year. The Pats have a big rest edge here as they were able to rest last week while the Chiefs were on the road putting a beating on the Texans in Houston. That shutout win for Kansas City actually doesn't bode well for what to expect from the Chiefs this week. Teams that are off of shutout win in the playoffs (rare) have gone 1-4 both SU and ATS in the only five occurrences the past twenty years. Hats off to the Chiefs for a big win last week but the key was the five Houston turnovers. Now Kansas City goes from facing Brian 'Turnover Machine' Hoyer at QB to Tom 'Hall of Famer' Brady. The fact is that this will prove to be a tough match-up for a Chiefs team whose recent road challenges have included bad teams and or bad quarterbacks or a combination of both. The only exception was the win over the Broncos when Peyton Manning was clearly not himself and threw four picks on November 15th. The Chiefs other road 'tests' this season against playoff competition (other than Houston) were at Minnesota, at Cincinnati, and at Green Bay. The Chiefs lost all three games and failed to cover any of the three with an average margin of defeat of 10 points per game in those losses. Granted, those games did occur rather early in the season but you can see (and understand) why I expect the Chiefs to struggle against a rested Patriots team that has extra fire in their belly headed into this one. The Pats are still fired up about a poor overall finish to the regular season and they certainly haven't forgotten the embarrassing loss at KC on national TV that occurred early in the 2014 season. The rest for the Pats last week gave them extra time to heal up and they should win this game in an absolute blowout. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9 points the past three seasons and they also have a long-term futility mark of 2-10 ATS in playoff games! The Patriots are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the Pats are on an overall 17-7 ATS run in home games. No mercy from Belichick's group after that MNF beatdown a year and a half ago. 

Rickenbach *10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Clemson vs Alabama @ 8:30 ET - This total has dropped from a 53.5 to a 50.5 as everyone is so enamored with the defense of the Crimson Tide. While Alabama is certainly impressive on that side of the ball, the Michigan State offense has nothing on Clemson and I expect the dynamic Tigers offense to challenge Alabama early and often in this one. The key to the play on the over though is that this SEC offense is going to also enjoy plenty of success in this one against an ACC defense that will get bowled over as Alabama establishes it's power running game early and, in turn, that forces the Tigers defense to crowd the line which will lead to some big opportunities for the Alabama aerial attack. The Crimson Tide scored 38 points against the Spartans and Alabama has averaged 38 points in their last four games overall. Bama's offense has produced over 400 yards in each of those four games. Clemson has averaged 39 points in their last 5 games and the Tigers have averaged over 500 yards of offense per game on the season. As strong as Alabama's defense has been this season, the Clemson offense presents a challenge that is at another level and that will be evident on Monday night. Clemson's defense allowed just 17 points to the Sooners in their playoff game but Oklahoma did gain nearly 400 yards in the game. Additionally, the Tigers gave up at least 27 points in 4 of their last 6 regular season games. Alabama's powerful offense is going to do some damage against the Tigers D and I am taking advantage of the drop in this total as that is offering even more line value on the over. The over is 6-2 in Alabama's last 8 games on a neutral field. Look for another one Monday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 45 in Washington vs Green Bay @ 4:40 PM ET - Granted the Packers offense struggled in their last two games of the season but they faced the tough defenses of Arizona and Minnesota. Also, they were plagued by some offensive line injury issues. Though those issues have not completely gone away, the Green Bay offensive line is in better shape heading into this playoff game than it has been for quite some time. Additionally, the Packers offense is going to be able to take advantage of a Redskins defense that has given up at least 290 passing yards in 4 of their last 6 games. This includes allowing 765 passing yards combined in their final two games of the season and those were against weak NFC East foes - Philly and Dallas. The Redskins come out of the NFC 'Least' and they will be susceptible to a Packers offense fully capable of getting right back on track. However, the reason this play is on the over rather than Green Bay is because the Packers D has been struggling against the ground game and this opens things up for the aerial attack. That said, in recent road games, Green Bay has allowed an average of 241 passing yards per game and I look for Redskins QB Cousins to have a huge game. Note that he had a ratio of 22 TDs and just 1 INT in Redskins victories this season and he's fully capable of exploiting a Packers defense that has been shaky in road games. The Redskins went over the total in each of their last four games this season. Washington is also 5-1 to the over in their games against teams from the NFC North division. The Packers are on a 6-2 run to the over in games where they are a road favorite of 3 points or less. A mild high temperature in the upper 50s is expected Sunday afternoon in DC and the rain is expected to have moved out by then. Weather conditions should be just fine for supporting this huge play on the over. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Minnesota Vikings +5 vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET - Brutal cold in Minnesota is going to help limit the production of what has been a red hot Seahawks offense. The Vikings have revenge here from a beatdown they took at home against Seattle five weeks ago. In that game Minnesota was outgained severely and ended up embarrassed on their home turf. You can bet that the Vikes are ready for redemption here. Let's not forget that in the Seahawks other games against teams with a winning record this season, Seattle only won 2 of the 6 games. The Vikings got a big boost with the return of some key personnel on the defensive side of the ball in Week 16 against the Giants. This helped the Vikings get big wins over the Giants and then the Packers in Week 17 to vault into ownership of the NFC North title. The Vikes allowed an average of just 14.3 points per game in their final three games of the season. Combining the solid defense (now healthy) of the Vikes with the NFL leading rusher (Peterson) leading the ground attack and a weather forecast of temperatures below 0 fahrenheit and you have the makings of a tough home dog to ouster out of the playoffs. I look for the Vikings to hang tough throughout this revenge grudge match. Look for Minnesota to improve to 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs Cincinnati @ 8:15 ET - Cincinnati's Andy Dalton is doubtful. The Bengals are likely to be led by QB A.J. McCarron. Dalton was knocked out of the game against the Steelers on December 13th. The Bengals enter the post-season now having lost 2 of their last 4 games. Because of being forced to go with McCarron at QB the Cincy passing attack has averaged just 169 points per game in their last three games. The Bengals are hosting a Steelers team that has a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. Note that the Steelers have thrown for at least 348 passing yards in five of their last seven games. That is more than double the passing yardage the Bengals have been averaging with McCarron under center. You can see why this is shaping up to be a mismatch! The Steelers are the healthier team and they are riding a wave of emotion after getting into the playoffs thanks to the Bills upset of the Jets in the final week of the regular season. This Steelers offense has been so hot that it is a team that no one wants to face right now, but particularly a division rival that is without their starting QB does not want to see this team to open up the playoffs. The Steelers are averaging 32 points per game in their last 8 games. The Benglas are averaging 21 points per game in their last 4 games. The Steelers have won 13 of their last 15 games at Cincinnati and are on an incredible long-term run of 19-6 ATS in games played at Cincy. Pittsburgh dominates the Bengals in their own house once again. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Houston Texans +3.5 vs Kansas City @ 4:35 ET - The Texans lost their season opener at home against Kansas City and now it is payback time for Houston. Though the Chiefs come into this game having won 10 straight games, it is important to note that they have not faced a single winning team in their last 7 games. Also, on the season, Kansas City went just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. I have been very impressed with the Texans this season as, thanks in part to a phenomenal defense, Houston was able to have a solid winning season even though they used 4 different starting QBs during the year. The Texans had one of the top defenses in the league in the regular season and Houston also held their opponents to 10 points or less in nearly half their games this season! Even though both these teams come into this Wild Card match-up red hot, I like the fact that the Texans can be grabbed at +3.5 as a home dog. Houston has impressed me as they have not been outgained in any of their last 9 games except for one (New England). As for the Chiefs, they have actually been outgained in four of their last six games. In my opinion, Kansas City has definitely been winning some games with smoke and mirrors. Look for the Chiefs to lose their ninth straight playoff game! Kansas City hasn't won a playoff game since their 1993 playoff run. As for the Texans, they have won each of their home playoff games (2011 and 2012) and I look for them to do it again here as all the pressure is on Kansas City where they haven't been able to get off the schneid in the post-season and they have the better record and are favored here on the road. A lot of pressure on the Chiefs.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Green Bay Packers -3 vs Minnesota @ 8:30 ET - The Eagles play a big part in this play! Why? Read on please. The Vikings are off of a huge blowout win over the Giants last Sunday night. New York simply laid a FAT EGG after they watched the Eagles also lay a FAT EGG the night before. That's right, Saturday night's Eagles loss to the Redskins was so monumental and unexpected (and it ended the Giants post-season hopes) that it not only cost Eagles coach Chip Kelly his job, it also led to one of the most uninspired efforts you'll ever see from a football team when the Giants got shellacked by the Vikings last week. Minnesota also had the benefit of facing New York without the suspended Odell Beckham, Jr. The point of all this is that the Vikings 49-17 smashing of the Giants has helped to keep this number at a -3. The Packers played an awful game at Arizona last week and lost 38-8 but you know they will now respond at home with the division title on the line! In Green Bay's last two home games they have averaged over 203 rushing yards per game. The Packers ground game will quickly open things back up for QB Rodgers to get back on track through the air. The Vikings barely outgained the Bears in their deceiving 38 to 17 win that preceded facing the lifeless Giants. Let's not forget that, prior to that, the Vikes had lost 3 of their last 4 with the only win coming against a Falcons team that was in the midst of a 9-game winning streak. I'll take Packers QB Rodgers over the Vikings QB Bridgewater in a big game any day of the week. Grab the line value with the small home fave here. Play Green Bay -3 as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 37.5 in San Francisco vs St Louis @ 4:25 ET - Why the low total here? The Rams have stayed under the total in 11 of their 15 games this season. Also, this match-up features two of the teams that have produced the weakest production on offense of any in the NFL this season. Why then would I have a Top Play on the OVER here? Because an end of season game can play out much differently than the rest of the season. These teams have nothing to play for but pride. There is no reason to hold anything back here so both offenses will take chances here and certainly will open up the playbook as much as possible. The Rams have won three straight games so even though they haven't been lighting up the scoreboard, St Louis certainly has plenty of confidence heading into this game. The Rams have averaged a respectable 25 points per game during this 3-game winning streak. The Niners have allowed an average of 25 points per game in their last 6 games and, not surprisingly, 5 of those 6 performances resulted in losses for the 49'ers. San Francisco is on a long-term 15-6 run to the over in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 38 points. Three of the Niners last four games against teams with a losing record have gone over the total. 9 of the Rams last 15 games against teams with a losing record have gone over the total. Look for a wide open affair as this is truly anybody's game and the offense will be on display in what has otherwise been a boring season for each of these teams. Here is a chance to open things up a bit and end the season on a high note. Play OVER 37.5 in San Francisco as a *10* Top Play selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Oakland Raiders +7.5 @ Kansas City @ 4:25 ET - If you played defense alongside the Raiders Woodson and you knew this was the last game of his illustrious 18 year career would you want to let him down? Of course not! The Raiders have been playing solid defense for many weeks now. They got the OT win over San Diego last week and held the Chargers to 20 points. Prior to that win the Raiders had given up 310 yards or less in each of their 4 prior games. Oakland is playing hard for Woodson and that will continue Sunday at Kansas City as the Raiders also aim to get 8-8 and avoid a losing record on the season. While technically the Chiefs have something to play for here, Kansas City also knows the likelihood of San Diego going into to Denver and knocking off the Broncos is slim. That said, the focus here for the Chiefs may not be as pinpoint as one would think. I look for a bit of a lackluster effort from Kansas City here while Oakland certainly goes all out in this one. We also got some line value here because the Chiefs beat the Raiders by a 34-20 score last month in Oakland. The Raiders led that game 20-14 in the 4th quarter before they had the ultimate of meltdowns. That won't be repeated here and an outright win for an emotional Raiders team would not surprise. Certainly though the best value is with grabbing the generous points. Play Oakland +7.5 as a *10* Top Play selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 52.5 in Atlanta vs New Orleans @ 1 ET - At 52.5 of course this total seems awful high. But there is no reason this game shouldn't get well into the sixties! Saints QB Brees led New Orleans to victory last week with a 412 yard performance and 3 TDs. The Falcons are off of their huge upset win over the Panthers last week as WR Jones had 9 catches for 178 yards. There is no reason this game shouldn't turn into a back and forth shootout. There are no playoff implications for either team so the defenses can't help but let up in intensity while the offenses have no pressure and can just air it out. Being a dome game means no weather to worry about even though it's early January. I look for both teams to simply "air it out" in this one in the type of game where the last team with the ball wins. As I have said many times before, the odds makers are not stupid. The reason this total is so high (even though the Falcons have stayed UNDER in NINE straight games) is for exactly the reasons I have noted above. Considering the situation and factors leading into this game, it's got "shootout" written all "OVER" it! The Saints have the worst defense in the league but I don't see the Falcons shutting down Brees and Company...especially with Atlanta off such a big win last week by putting an end to the Panthers unbeaten season. The last time these teams met in Atlanta 71 points were scored. The over is 5-2 in Falcons games where they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is 6-2 in the Saints last 8 games heading into this one. Play OVER 52.5 in Atlanta as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play OVER 63 in Arizona State vs West Virginia @ 10:15 ET - The Mountaineers have a potent offense and absolutely will take advantage of a porous Sun Devils defense in this one. Arizona State allowed 538 yards per game in their last five games and gave up 40 points per game during this stretch too. The Mountaineers should move the ball virtually 'at will' in this game. They key things is that West Virginia absolutely will need to do just that because Arizona State scored at least 34 points in 7 of their last 11 games. The Sun Devils wrapped up the season by averaging 49 points per game in their final two games of the regular season. Arizona State threw for an average of 323.4 yards per game in their final five games of the season. Also, the Sun Devils averaged 226.2 rushing yards per game in their last five games of the season. The Mountaineers average a potent 463 yards per game on offense and, couple that with the weak defense of the Sun Devils, you have the makings of an absolute shootout at the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix Saturday night. When playing with two or more weeks of rest, West Virginia has gone 26-12 to the over including 12-6 in bowl games. Arizona State is 4-2 to the over after a bye week. Also 15 of the Sun Devils last 24 games against teams with a winning record have gone over the total. Why? Because they just can't stop good offense but they certainly do have a good offense of their own. Shootout!

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play TCU Horned Frogs +7 vs Oregon @ 6:45 ET - Of course everyone by now has heard of the suspension of TCU starting QB Trevone Boykin due to his late night drunken antics here in San Antonio just a few nights before the bowl game. While this has resulted in an incredible line move in favor of Oregon, it has in turn opened up fantastic line value on the Horned Frogs. I look for Texas Christian University to rally around the fact that Boykin and WR Josh Doctson (injury) are out for this game. What the market is failing to adjust for properly here is the fact that the Frogs do have a senior QB back-up ready to go for this game. When Boykin was out for the game against the Sooners earlier this season, senior QB Bram Kohlhausen did not get the start because his father had just passed away. However, Kohlhausen did end up playing in relief in that game and very nearly rallied the Horned Frogs back for the comeback win over Oklahoma. Look for the Horned Frogs to rally around Kohlhausen in this game and everyone Horned Frog player is likely to step up their game and their intensity level as they respond to the Boykin suspension. The Horned Frogs have the much better defense in this match-up. TCU allowed 21 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. Conversely, the over-rated Ducks allowed at least 28 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. Oregon's D is allowing nearly 100 yards more and 10 points more than the Horned Frogs. That plus the site location favoring TCU and the ability to get a full TD now with a dangerous underdog has me siding with the Horned Frogs in a BIG way on Saturday. Don't be surprised if this turns into a huge upset win for TCU but I am certainly grabbing the generous points. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play OVER 67.5 in Ole Miss vs Okla State @ 8:30 ET - Oklahoma State's defense allowed an average of nearly 600 yards per game in their last five games of the season. Look for the Ole Miss offense to have a huge night on the speedy turf at the Superdome in the Sugar Bowl. The Rebels scored at least 38 points in 7 of their 12 games this season and they certainly should have no problems with the porous defense of the Cowboys. The flip side is that, despite some overall solid defensive numbers on the season, the Mississippi defense is likely to falter here. The Rebels D often faltered against teams with stronger offenses as evidenced by the fact that Ole Miss allowed at least 37 points against each of these four bowl teams: Alabama, Florida, Memphis, and Arkansas. The Rebels are certainly going to have their hands full with Oklahoma State's offense. The Cowboys averaged 41 points per game this season. This, of course, is a big total on this game but there is no reason not to expect this game to not only get into the 70s but truly the 80s or 90s is a real possibility for total points. The Ole Miss offense really picked up steam when offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil returned to action and this is a team that knocked off Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, and Texas A & M this season. The Rebels will move the ball very well here but the Cowboys, like Ole Miss, average around 500 yards of offense per game. The over is 5-1 this season in Oklahoma State games against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys lost their last their final two games this season but they are 6-2 to the over when off of a straight up loss to a conference foe and 11-5 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of two games or more. The Cowboys offense responds to the recent defeats today with a big performance in the Sugar Bowl but they will not be able to stop the potent Rebels offensive attack and the play here is the OVER.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal -6 vs Iowa @ 5 ET - Iowa narrowly missed an undefeated season but they were so fortunate overall. The Hawkeyes regular season schedule was kind as they avoided the Buckeyes, Spartans, and Wolverines. This helped Iowa to enjoy a big season until they ran into Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship and the Spartans put an end to their unbeaten season. Not only did this end the Hawkeyes chances at gunning for the National Championship, it also exposed their weaknesses as Iowa was outgained by nearly 100 yards by the Spartans. Yes, that's the same Spartans team that lost 38-0 to Alabama yesterday. In other words, Iowa may have trouble remaining competitive in this game against the Cardinal. Stanford comes into this game with an 11-2 mark on the season and, unlike Iowa, the Cardinal are coming into this game off of a win. Stanford knocked off Notre Dame this season and USC (twice) including in the Pac 12 Title game which Stanford took over the Trojans in dominating fashion with a 41-22 win. The Hawkeyes just don't have the offense to keep up here. Stanford, after a disappointing 16-6 loss to open up their season, averaged 40 points per game the rest of the season and the Cardinal scored at least 30 points in every single game! By comparison, Iowa was held to 31 points or less in 8 of their 13 games and only once did they score more than 40. Keep in mind Stanford AVERAGED 40. The powerful Cardinal have edges across the board on offense and they also have the special teams edge and played the tougher schedule in comparison with Iowa. Combining all these factors with the Hawkeyes suffering "unbeaten letdown" with the loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship and you have the perfect spot for a blowout rout for Stanford who get the added benefit of playing this game in their home state.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Ohio State Buckeyes -6 vs Notre Dame @ 1 ET - Ohio State certainly was disappointed that they were unable to make it to the playoffs. Notre Dame has only two losses on the year and those each came by a margin of just two points. That said, how can the Buckeyes by favored by nearly a TD here? Think about that for a minute...exactly! The reason is because Ohio State should roll here. Don't fall for the trap with this line. Ohio State already proved they would bounce back off of a disappointing situation when they blasted Michigan by 29 points after suffering the heart-breaking 3 point loss to Michigan State the prior week. The Buckeyes now will be out to prove that they did belong in the playoffs and so they will show no mercy against an over-matched Notre Dame team here. Keep in mind, all the Buckeyes wins this season came by at least 7 points. Even though the Fighting Irish have played well this season they did allow at least 24 points in 7 of their last 11 games. To put that in to perspective in terms of comparison with the Buckeyes, note that Ohio State allowed 17 points or less in 9 of their last 11 games. Of course a 24-17 Buckeyes final score gets the job done here but I am expecting an even bigger margin than that. Ohio State not only has the superior defense in this match-up, the Buckeyes also have averaged 40 points per bowl game under coach Urban Meyer. Combining his 3 bowls with Ohio State with his prior history, coach Meyer is 9-2 SU and ATS in bowl games. He also has 3 national titles! The Irish offense won't be able to do enough damage against this powerful Buckeyes defense to keep in this game. That turns this into an Ohio State rout!

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -10 vs Michigan State @ 8 ET - This is a traditional "trap line" game and that's why I am unloading on the Crimson Tide here. It is a match-up of 12-1 teams and therefore many feel that Alabama certainly should not be a double digit fave against such a strong Big Ten foe. This is especially true since this SEC powerhouse lost last year to Ohio State in the Bowls as an 8 point favorite! However, the reasons above are precisely the reason you want to back Alabama here. The line is fooling the general public. The Crimson Tide are seeking to atone for last year's Sugar Bowl loss to he Buckeyes that kept Alabama out of the national championship game. Let's also not forget that Michigan State beat Oregon even though they were outgained by over 100 yards. Also, the Spartans beat Ohio State and Michigan on last second plays as Michigan State never held the lead in either one of those games and yet one each on the final play. They also beat Iowa on a TD with less than 30 seconds left in the game. They have led a 'charmed life' to say the least so far this season and I expect Alabama to dominate here. The Crimson Tide have seen 11 of their 12 victories this season come by a margin of at least 13 points. Alabama has allowed an average of just 12 points per game in their 12 wins. As solid as Michigan State's defense is, the Spartans allowed at least 21 points in 8 of their first 9 games this season. Look for the powerful Crimson Tide to impose their will here. Look for Alabama head coach Nick Saban to make the most of his first ever match-up with his old school as he was the head coach at MSU for 5 years in the last 90's. Lay the points as Alabama does what it's been doing all season long. Dominate on defense and win the game by a double digit margin!

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Clemson Tigers +4 vs Oklahoma @ 4 ET - Certainly I have a lot of respect for Oklahoma but the Sooners have overachieved this season. OU was fortunate that their match-ups with Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State featured major issues for their opponents at the QB position. Certainly QB injuries in the Big 12 (but Sooners QB Baker Mayfield staying healthy) helped Oklahoma reach the top spot. As I stated above, I certainly do respect the Sooners but the point of all this above is that I do question them being a 4 point favorite over an undefeated Clemson team. The Tigers are 13-0 on the season but certainly are getting no respect here as they opened up as a 3 point dog and now this line is up to a solid 4 points on this game. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson gives the Tigers a dual threat option and is the better talent at the QB position (especially from a dual threat perspective) although Mayfield has thrived this season in the "Air Raid offense" installed by offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. The Sooners are running into a very tough pass defense here and the Tigers defense, overall, allowed just 17 points per game before they let up some late in the season. That let-up was inevitable after they knocked off Florida State and then were a huge favorite in the rest of their regular season games until they ran into North Carolina in the ACC title game. Even though the Tigers only beat the Tar Heels by 8 they did outgain them by 226 yards in the game. To summarize, the potent Tigers just aren't being given the respect they deserve here and Clemson is highly motivated by virtue of being ranked #1 and yet being installed as an underdog here. They will play extremely hard with a chip on their shoulder throughout the game as the Tigers look to scratch and claw their way to the national championship game. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Houston Cougars +7 vs Florida State @ Noon ET - The Seminoles will be the popular choice here as an ACC team while the Cougars come in from the less highly regarded AAC. The fact is that this venue and the situation both strongly favor Houston. Florida State can't be too excited about this match-up after last year playing in the Rose Bowl in a Playoff Semi-Final. After an ugly loss to the Ducks in that game, the Noles were hoping for a big push this season and giving themselves another shot at a national championship. With that scenario not working out for the 10-2 Seminoles, look for them to struggle to match the intensity and motivation edges that 12-1 Houston brings into this game. The Cougars have the big advantages in those categories as well as at the QB position. On the fast track in a dome setting, look for QB Greg Ward to have an absolutely monster game here. Houston averaged 40.6 points per game this season and they roll into this match-up with plenty of momentum after getting a big win in the AAC Championship Game. Florida State comes into this game with disappointment as they lost 2 of their last 5 ACC games and the Noles certainly had higher hopes than facing the Houston Cougars to end the season. Motivation goes a long way in a game like this and the Cougars have the potent offense to give the Seminoles all sorts of trouble in this one. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +3.5 vs USC @ 10:30 ET - The Trojans certainly have the eye-catching talent on the offensive side of the ball. However, defense wins football games and the Badgers had one of the best defensive units in the nation this season. I look for the Badgers to be up to the challenge of shutting down USC's offense. At the same time, USC has already begun cleaning house on the defensive side of the ball but getting rid of five defensive assistants right before a bowl game is unlikely to pay immediate dividends. Look for the Trojans defense to continue to show that it is in a state of flux and that will allow a mediocre Badgers offense to get plenty of points to support a prolific Wisconsin defense that should dominate once again. Keep in mind that USC seemed to struggled every time it was asked to step up against tougher competition this season. The Trojans lost to Stanford (twice!), Oregon, Notre Dame, and also to a mediocre Washington team. Other than the loss to the Huskies, the other four losses came by an average margin of 15 points per game. Conversely, the Badgers went 9-2 after the season-opening loss to Alabama and the two losses came by an average of just five points. Wiscy doesn't get blown out, the Trojans do, and that has me grabbing the available points here with a motivated underdog that is seeking it's 5th win in it's last 7 non-New Year's Day bowls. The Badgers will be ready here. Play Wisconsin +3.5 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play OVER 48.5 in Louisville vs Texas A & M @ 7 ET - Well aware of the QB situation for Texas A & M but, with all the extra time to prepare, I look for Jake Hubenak to surprise for the Aggies. Look for the Cardinals defense to be so focused on getting pressure on him that they over-pursue at the line of scrimmage and this will help lead to some big runs for a potent Aggies ground game. The Aggies have a powerful rushing attack that will also then key some success for Hubenak through the air as it keeps the Louisville defense honest. On the other side of the ball, look for a Cards offense - led by a mobile QB - to be a real problem for the Aggies defense. Mobile QB's like Louisville's Lamar Jackson are a nightmare for defenses. Jackson is so dangerous both with his arm and his legs. The Cards offense really came into it's own as the season progressed and with good weather in Nashville, I look for the success on offense to continue. The Cardinals averaged 38 points per game in the last four games of the season. The Aggies averaged 45 points per game in their four non-conference games this season. The over is 25-16 in Louisville games when they are off of a bye week. The Cardinals last four games this season all went over. The over is 4-2 in Aggies games when they are playing with two or more weeks of rest. I know the Aggies D put up some nice numbers in the last few weeks of the season but facing a mobile QB like Jackson is going to create all sorts of problems here. Play OVER 48.5 in Louisville as a *10* Top Play Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* NC State Wolfpack +7 vs Mississippi State @ 3:30 ET - The Bulldogs did not impress in the way the finished up the season and I like the motivated Wolfpack in this spot. Mississippi State lost two of their three final games and allowed an average of 40 points per game in those final three games. NC State also comes into this game having lost two of their last three games but they didn't come into the season with the same big aspirations that Mississippi State had. With that said, the Wolfpack are fired up about this opportunity to take on an SEC foe in the Belk Bowl in their home state. Look for NC State to make the most of it. The Wolfpack saw what happened to Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott when he faced a lot of pressure against Ole Miss in Mississippi State's season finale. That said, you can bet that NC State will have plenty of pressure dialed up for this match-up with Prescott and Company. The Bulldogs defense also took a blow late in the season as they lost two starters from their secondary including lockdown corner Will Redmond. Look for Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett (19 TDs against just 4 INTs) to take advantage. Even though NC State lost RB Matthew Dayes to a season ending injury in game 8 of the season, the Wolfpack still have a talented group of running backs fully capable of filling in. The powerful NC State running game will open things up for Brissett to take advantage with throws downfield and I look for the motivated Wolfpack to steal the upset here. If they do fall short it should be by a field goal or less. Play NC State +7 as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 vs LSU @ 9 ET - LSU entered the season as a title contender but they certainly fell well short of that with an 8-3 record. The Tigers certainly can't be too excited about playing in the Texas Bowl on December 29th when their aspirations heading into the season were certainly much higher than this. With that said, the motivated underdog Red Raiders are the play here. Texas Tech, similar to when they knocked off Arizona State in the 2013 Holiday Bowl, are very excited to be here. There is a strong possibility that the Red Raiders get another outright upset against a stronger foe once again in this bowl match-up. Texas Tech has such a potent offense with QB Patrick Mahomes leading the way that I just don't see LSU getting many defensive stops in this one. Certainly LSU will enjoy some offensive success against the Red Raiders D as the defense of Texas Tech is a weakness. However, RB Leonard Fournette truly finished up the season in disappointing fashion and I don't expect him to be at his best here after not even attending the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. On the other side of the ball the Tigers defense faltered as the year went on and they're now facing a Red Raiders team that already knocked off a similar SEC team (Arkansas) in the regular season. Texas Tech is certainly going to give LSU all they can handle here and I will be surprised if the Tigers can even answer the Red Raiders score for score in this one. Grab the highly motivated, ultra dangerous underdog in this one. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Colorado State Rams -3 vs Nevada @ 7:30 ET - The Rams are looking to atone for last year's ugly 45-10 bowl loss against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Colorado State comes into this bowl match-up on a big roll as they have won four straight games and the average margin of victory was 11 points per game. The Wolf Pack come into this game heading the opposite direction as they have lost each of their past two games and Nevada allowed 31 points in each. Colorado State has a good history with the Wolf Pack as the Rams have won 11 of the last 13 meetings. Also, Nevada has won just 1 of 8 bowl games in their history. Though both teams have powerful ground-based attacks I look for the Rams to prevail here. CSU averaged 258 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games and Nevada was out-gained on the ground by a 320 to 35 mark in their season finale against San Diego State. The Wolf Pack do want to avoid a losing season but the Rams are the hotter team and you can bet that head coach Bobo has his team fired up for his first bowl game as a head coach. Colorado State is very hungry here and has the intensity I like to see from a team heading into a bowl game.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play OVER 68.5 in North Carolina vs Baylor @ 5:30 ET - Baylor's Chris Johnson is expected to start at QB as he's recovered from a concussion. Couple that with the fact that head coach Briles has had extra time to prep (since this is a bowl game) and you can bet that the Bears offense will have plenty of 'good stuff cooked up' for this match-up with the Tar Heels. The weakness for North Carolina was their defense and they allowed a total of 79 points in their last two games of the season. The potent Bears offense (scored at least 45 in 8 of 12 games) will pick the Tar Heels defense apart. When UNC has the ball, you can bet that they will also be marching right down the field in this one. The Tar Heels will take advantage of a Bears defense that allowed 31.3 points per game in their last 7 games. North Carolina, after scoring just 13 points in a season opening loss, went on to average 43 points per game in their final 12 games of the season. The Tar Heels potent offensive attack will slice and dice the Bears defense and couple that with the fact that it will be nice warm weather down in Orlando Florida and you have the makings of a fast-paced 'track meet' on the artificial turf at the Florida Citrus Bowl stadium. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* California Golden Bears -6.5 vs Air Force @ 2 ET - I realize that, overall, Cal's defense was a weakness this season. However, they did defeat San Diego State 31 to 7 early this season and that is an Aztecs team that runs the ball very well. Air Force lost to that same San Diego State team in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 final. California's defense will stack the line with eight men in the box to slow down the option attack of Air Force. As for when the Golden Bears are on offense, look out! Cal is led by QB Jared Goff and he should enjoy phenomenal success picking apart the weak pass defense of Air Force. California just missed getting to a bowl last season and that gives them even more motivation to take care of business in the Armed Forces Bowl Tuesday. With the Golden Bears able to focus on shutting down the running attack of the Falcons, look for Cal's more balanced offensive attack to be the difference in this match-up as Air Force only averages about 12 pass attempts per game. The Falcons offense simply won't be able to keep up with a Cal offense that produced 41 points per game in their last 3 games of the season. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Cincinnati Bengals +4 @ Denver @ 8:30 ET - Both teams have back-up QBs in this one but I give the edge to McCarron over Osweiler. The Bengals QB was very solid in his first career start and it was on the road where McCarron helped Cincinnati jump all over the 49'ers early and amass a 21-0 lead. The Bengals beat Denver last season in a similar situation as it was a Week 16 Monday night football game in Cincinnati. Even though this game is on the road, the Bengals are 14-5-2 ATS as a road dog. Overall, Cincy comes into this game with an 11-2-1 ATS mark on the season and the Broncos have struggled with Osweiler at the controls. Denver barely snuck by Chicago by 2 points, then were extremely fortunate in their win over the Patriots in OT, and most recently have lost two straight games. The Bengals big road win at San Francisco last week is a huge confidence boost for the team in their first full game without Dalton at QB. In a battle for playoff positioning I see great line value with the Bengals now a dog of more than 3 points in this one. Fade the line move and ride the hotter team in this one. Denver has a tremendous defense but continued struggles on the other side of the ball will prove to be the downfall of the Broncos once again Monday night. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play OVER 48 in Minnesota vs Central Michigan @ 5 ET - Central Michigan does not run the ball well but that means plenty of focus on the aerial attack when the Chippewas are on offense here and that bodes well for an over. The Chips are led by QB Cooper Rush who finished #2 in the MAC with over 3,700 passing yards this season. The Chippewas averaged 30 points per game in their last 8 games of the season. Minnesota, as you would expect for a Big Ten team, played a much tougher schedule and should enjoy success going against a MAC defense in this one. The Golden Gophers come into this one with a chip on their shoulders after a disappointing 5-7 season so I expect plenty of aggression from a Minnesota offense that will be on the attack from the opening possession in this game. After a bit of a slow start on the offensive side of the ball this season the Golden Gophers rebounded to average 28 points per game in the last 7 games of the season. On the fast track of Ford Field indoors in Detroit look for plenty of offense in this one in what should be a wide open game as neither team is feeling particular pressure here. Minnesota (5-7) can't end with a winning record on the season and Central Michigan (7-5) can't end with a losing record on the season. The teams open up the playbooks for this one and air it out early and often.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* OVER 52.5 in Navy vs Pittsburgh @ 2:30 ET - When Pittsburgh faced the option attack of Georgia Tech in the regular season they allowed 28 points and they were fortunate more points were not put on the scoreboard in that one as the Panthers defense got sliced and diced for nearly 500 yards of offense by the Yellow Jackets. Navy comes into this bowl game averaging 330 rushing yards per game and 37.5 points per game. Look for Pitt to again struggle to defend the option. However, the Navy defense is nothing special and they gave up an average of 24.5 points per game in their last 8 games of the season. The Midshipmen gave up 41 points to Notre Dame and 52 points to Houston. Navy now takes on a Pittsburgh team that averaged 32.5 points per game in their last four games of the regular season. The Panthers were an underdog 6 times this season and 4 of those 6 resulted in overs. In Navy's last five games of the regular season only 1 stayed under the total. Look for plenty of points in the Military Bowl Monday afternoon. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* New York Giants +7 @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET - This is a contrarian play as most will look at last night's results and figure that the Giants will "lay down" here at Minnesota and get blasted on Sunday night. The fact is that, even though New York was eliminated from the post-season by last night's Redskins win over the Eagles, the Giants are a likely to put up quite a fight tonight. The Giants still have their sights set on finishing at .500 for the season by getting wins this week and next week. Additionally, this is a primetime game and that means all the players want to bring their best efforts to shine under the lights of nighttime football and the national TV cameras. Though the Giants will be without Odell Beckham (suspension), the G-men have plenty of other talented players at the skill positions that are excited about stepping up in this spot under the national spotlight. Also giving value to the Giants here is the fact that it will be bitterly cold in Minnesota tonight. In almost all situations where weather is a factor, it tends to favor the dog. If there is difficulty hanging onto the ball or gripping it properly it means that it is more difficult for the better team to dominate in a way they otherwise might. When it's below 20 degrees fahrenheit outside it can become more difficult to grip the ball properly for QBs and for their receivers to make the catches. The Giants have averaged nearly 30 points per game in their last 7 games while the Vikes, before last week's big win over Chicago, had been held to an average of just 15 points per game in their four prior games. The Giants are 6-2 ATS in games played on turf this season and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 December games. The Vikings have lost 2 of their last 3 home games and the two defeats came by at least 17 points apiece. The G-men are a dangerous dog here. Play the New York Giants plus the points as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 40 in Seattle vs St Louis @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks have scored at least 29 points in 6 straight games! Seattle has averaged 34 points per game during this 6 games stretch and I see no reason for the Seahawks offense to slow down today. In fact, the Hawks are likely to put the pedal to the metal throughout this game as they have seek to avenge a 34-31 loss in overtime at St Louis in their season opener this year. The Seahawks won't let up in this game and the result should be a blowout win. However, don't be surprised if the Rams manage to stay within about 10-14 points of the Hawks in this game. St Louis has some confidence for multiple reasons heading into today's game. For one thing the Rams are off of back to back wins and have averaged 26 points in the two victories. For another, they did put up 34 points against the vaunted Seahawks defense earlier this season. St Louis also has nothing to lose here. They are simply trying to improve for next season and they can play a "wide open" game here as they is certainly no playoff pressure. The Rams are just trying to finish the season strong with some solid efforts. The Rams D won't slow down a Seahawks offense that is firing on all cylinders right now but the St Louis offense should stay hot and will get their fair share of points as well. 3 of the Hawks 4 divisional games have gone over the total this season. Play OVER 40 in Seattle as a *10* Top Play Sunday. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +5 @ Arizona @ 4:25 ET - The world is likely to be lining up on the Cardinals here and this line could move up to the 6 point range on this game. However, in the interest of getting my plays out early on this Sunday morning I am releasing this play at +5. It is a great value to have a solid 10-4 Packers team plus significant points. Yes, the Cardinals have been fantastic this season but they will be challenged here by a Green Bay team that is the hungrier of the two teams. The Cards have already locked up the NFC West but the Packers are in a dogfight for the NFC North crown as they battle with the Vikings. Both the Pack and the Cardinals benefited from turnovers in their wins last week and the Cards big win over the Eagles looks much less impressive when you look at how the Eagles performed in their do or die game against the Redskins last night. A key factor that many may overlook here is that the Packers have played a tougher schedule than have the Cardinals this season. I feel this oversight is resulting in extra line value here for Green Bay. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in road games this season and already 3-0 ATS against the NFC West this season. The Cardinals are 2-4 ATS in home games this season and 0-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. As strong as the Cards offense is, their defense has allowed at least 300 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Packers D has given up 252 passing yards or less in 6 straight games! Green Bay could spring the upset here and certainly there is significant value with the points. Play Green Bay plus the points as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5 vs UCLA @ 9:15 ET Saturday -  Why is an 8-4 team favored by less than a TD against a 5-7 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskers here with this line at more than field goal. Nebraska battled hard and suffered many tight losses this season. That is helping to create line value here as, based on playing a tough schedule and suffering some tight beats, this line is much higher than it should be. 5 of Nebraska's 7 losses this season came by 5 points or less. The Cornhuskers did not have a single loss by more than 10 points and the average margin of defeat in their 7 losses was 4.7 points per defeat! The Huskers did fall short against Iowa in their regular season finale but Nebraska outgained the Hawkeyes by a 433 to 250 margin. The Huskers also had the big upset of Michigan State this season and I can't see the Bruins being too excited about this game as they are still lamenting their loss by a 40-21 loss to USC that wrapped up their regular season. Remember that UCLA even had national title aspirations coming into this season. Now their bowl game is the day after Christmas. The Bruins aren't nearly as excited as the Cornhuskers are to be here. Play Nebraska +6.5 as a *10* Top Play Saturday. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 48 in Philadelphia vs Washington @ 8:25 ET Saturday - The Eagles struggle to stop anybody. Though this is a huge game with massive playoff implications for both teams in this NFC East battle, it is set up to be a shootout. The Redskins have struggled on the road all season long and, even though they were home last week, Washington gave up 452 yards against the Bills. The Eagles gave up nearly 500 yards to Arizona last week. Philadelphia has allowed at least 400 yards of offense in each of their last five games. Being on short rest certainly won't help this weary defense that has given up at least 493 yards in 2 of their last 3 home games. The Redskins have allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 5 match-ups with the Eagles. Overall, the over is 4-2 in Washington's last 6 games heading into this one and 4-1 in Philly's last 5 games heading into this one. The Redskins, when playing with 6 days of rest or less this season have gone 7-3 to the over. The Eagles offense has been solid with QB Sam Bradford under center but they certainly must cut down on their turnovers. The Eagles have averaged 25 points per game in their last three games and the Redskins have averaged 26 points per game in their last 26 games. I look for the Eagles defense to struggle with QB Cousins but the Eagles offense has been quite solid in their past four home games. This should turn into an absolute shootout as a result. Play OVER 48 in Philadelphia as a *10* Top Play.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play OVER 61.5 in Virginia Tech vs Tulsa @ 5:45 ET Saturday - I have a lot of respect for the Tulsa offense and they averaged over 500 yards per game this season plus 36 points per game this season. The flip side is that I have no respect for a Golden Hurricane defense that got ripped apart for over 530 yards per game this season and very nearly 40 points per game on the year. The Hokies are certainly going to want to do all they can do to insure that they get a big win for coach Frank Beamer in his final game. That said, I do expect the Hokies to keep the hammer down all the way through this game and they should be able to pile up a ton of points. The issues for the Hokies though will come about in trying to stop this potent Golden Hurricane offense. The Hokies again had a solid defense this season but it is certainly not as strong as what they have had in past seasons under Beamer. There were five games this season where Virginia Tech allowed at least 30 points. Tulsa scored at least 34 points in 9 of their 12 games this season. Look for this game to quickly turn into a back and forth shootout as the Hokies exploit a weak Tulsa pass defense while the Golden Hurricane offense continues to move the ball well no matter the opposition. Play OVER 61.5 in Virginia Tech as a *10* Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Washington Huskies -8 vs Southern Miss @ 2:20 ET Saturday - Why is a 6-6 team favored by more than a TD against a 9-4 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskies here with this line in single digits. Southern Mississippi played an extremely weak schedule, one of the weakest in all of NCAA Division 1 football. The Golden Eagles will be exposed here by a solid Pac-12 team that played a very tough schedule this season. The Huskies are led by head coach Petersen who went 5-2 SU and ATS in his bowl games with Boise State. That said, after losing the Cactus Bowl last year in his first bowl game with the Huskies, Petersen and Company are fired up about getting a big win in their second bowl game! In addition to the huge edge here based on strength of schedule, the Huskies have the vastly superior defense in comparison with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are led by head coach Monken and this is his first ever bowl game. The Huskies faced 10 bowl teams this season while Southern Miss faced only 5 and the Golden Eagles lost 4 of those 5 game with the average margin of defeat at 16 points per loss. Another double digit loss looms here! Play Washington -8 as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 46 in Oakland vs San Diego @ 8:25 ET Thursday - The rain expected in Oakland today as well as some wind is helping to keep the posted total down on this game. The fact is that the rain is expected to be gone well before game time and, as you would expect, the winds will be starting to subside because this is an evening game. I'll gladly grab the line value here with the over as there is no reason not to expect a shootout here. The Chargers offense got back on track last week but putting up over 440 yards of offense in their 30-14 win at Miami. The Raiders, as usual, found a way to lose plus give up a bunch of points as their 30-20 loss to the Packers last week was the 5th time in their last 9 games that they've allowed at least 29 points. Of course the reason that Oakland is favored here is that the offense should be able to move the ball very well against a San Diego team that has struggled in road games this season. The Raiders and Chargers both have strong passing attacks and are not afraid to use them! San Diego is averaging 45 pass attempts per game this season (tops in the AFC) and the Raiders have attempted at least 43 passes in four of their last seven games. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's home games this season and the Raiders are 7-2 to the over in their games against AFC opponents. The over is a long-term 84-58 in Chargers games against teams with a losing record. Play OVER 46 in Oakland as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 vs San Diego State @ 8 ET Thursday - Both teams are missing their starting QB but the Bearcats are in much better shape with Hayden Moore at QB in comparison with San Diego State forced to go with Christian Chapman at QB. The Aztecs QB only had 38 pass attempts this season in comparison with 194 for Moore. The Bearcats have had trouble stopping the run this season but when that can be your focus (because you know you're facing a weak or injury-impacted offense) it does make a big difference. The Bearcats have good size on their defensive line and they won't just be run over by the Aztecs ground game. Look for Cincinnati to put 8 men in the box and to challenge a very inexperienced QB to try and beat them through the air. Cincy is a very talented team overall and, while their 7-5 record may not be overly impressive they did play a much tougher schedule than the 10-3 Aztecs. I also love fading the big line move here as it's moved by nearly a full TD. This is offering exceptional line value to an under-rated Cincinnati team that has a passing attack that is tough to stop and that is true even with Moore at the controls. San Diego State coach Long has a 2-7 bowl record while Bearcats coach Tuberville has a 7-5 record in bowls. Play Cincinnati plus the points as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +4.5 vs Western Michigan @ Noon ET Thursday - The MAC teams started off red hot in the bowls but may have shown their true colors yesterday as both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green got blasted in bowl action. That doesn't bode well for what can be expected from a Western Michigan team that came into the season with many not expecting the Broncos to reach a bowl. The defense of Western Michigan was expected to be the weakness and still is truly an area of concern entering this game. Though the Broncos come into this game off of a big season-ending win over Toledo, it did seem the Rockets (9-1 at the time) truly overlooked Western Michigan (6-5 at the time) in that game. Middle Tennessee State certainly is not going to overlook the Broncos as the Blue Raiders are excited to be in this bowl. They did not make a bowl last season despite being eligible and this has the Blue Raiders playing with some extra motivation and hunger in this game. Western Michigan was invited to a bowl last season and they lost to Air Force by two TDs as the Broncos have now lost all four bowl games they've been in the past ten seasons. Before Western Michigan's surprising season-ending win over Toledo they had lost two straight. Conversely, the Blue Raiders wrapped up their season with four straight wins (and averaging over 300 passing yards per game in the victories) and definitely come into this bowl game riding a huge wave of momentum. Play Middle Tennessee State plus the points as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Bowling Green -7 vs Georgia Southern @ 8 PM ET - The MAC enters the December 23rd action with a perfect 3-0 ATS mark so far in the bowls. Not only is the MAC rolling so far but the situation with GODADDY BOWL looks particularly strong as Bowling Green is only laying a TD and yet they are facing a team from the weaker SunBelt Conference. Georgia Southern certainly deserves credit for a solid regular season and they did amass an 8-4 ATS mark on the year. However, they faced a much weaker schedule than did the Falcons and Bowling Green went 9-3-1 ATS on the year. The Eagles run the triple option on offense and though that can be a difficult offense to defend against it does mean that pass defense is nearly completely taken out of the equation. Also, coming from the MAC, the Falcons certainly have faced plenty of tough running attacks and the extra time off before the bowl game helps Bowling Green to be fully prepared for what Georgia Southern's offense is going to throw at them. The Falcons had back to back strong performances on defense to wrap up the regular season and that also boosts their confidence for facing the Eagles attack. Conversely, Georgia Southern's defense got ripped for nearly 500 yards in their ugly 34-7 loss to Georgia State in their season finale. The Falcons potent offensive attack (561 yards per game!) will be too much for the Eagles to keep up with. Play Bowling Green -7 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Northern Illinois +8.5 vs Boise State @ 4:30 PM ET - Northern Illinois lost starting QB Drew Hare but 2nd stringer Ryan Graham has been practicing with the first team offense and looks ready to go for this game. MAC teams have performed very well so far this bowl season and I expect that to continue Wednesday. Can't see the Broncos as being too excited about this match-up. They were playing in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve last year. Now Boise State is in the Poinsettia Bowl two days before Christmas. Play the motivated dog here as the Huskies powerful ground game will make a big difference in this one. Look for MAC teams to improve to 4-0 ATS so far in this bowl season. Play Northern Illinois +8.5 as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Temple Owls -2.5 vs Toledo @ 7 ET - Temple has the vastly superior defense in comparison with Toledo. The Owls only allowed 329.5 yards per game this season. Additionally, the Owls have been very strong against the pass with only 203.3 passing yards allowed per game. Besides the defensive edge for Temple in this one there is also a large coaching edge. That's because the Rockets former head coach, Campbell, took the job at ISU and that mean that the offensive coordinator, Candle, is taking over the head coaching reins for this bowl game. Not only is this his first ever bowl game, it actually is his first game as a head coach ever. This coaching situation is certainly going to be impacting to Toledo as is the way they wrapped up the season. The Rockets were in control of their own destiny but lost AT HOME to Western Michigan and that prevented Toledo from making it to the MAC Championship Game. The disappointment of that sour ending to the season coupled with the questionable coaching situation for this game is putting Toledo at a significant disadvantage entering this game. Temple is a veteran team that entered the season loaded with returning starters and with plenty of seniors on the roster. These guys want to end their college careers the right way and this Owls team has impressed me throughout this season and I look for them to go out on top here. Play Temple -2.5 as an *8* selection Tuesday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Detroit Lions +3 @ New Orleans @ 8:30 PM ET - Good underdog line value here. The Lions fell flat last week at St Louis and fell short 21 to 14. Of course it was understandable that Detroit was a little "down" last week as they had lost their prior game in ridiculous fashion with a hail mary on the final play of the game. That long pass by the Packers gave the Lions a brutal divisional loss and left them very sapped of emotion heading into last week's game with the Rams. However, now off of the loss to St Louis, I look for a motivated Detroit group to respond on Monday night football. The Lions are catching the Saints off of a rare win so that certainly helps. Detroit is facing a Saints team that had lost four straight prior to last week's rare win and New Orleans has continued to have trouble on the defensive side of the football despite firing their defensive coordinator. Overall, the Saints continue to rank among the worst defenses in the league while the Lions have allowed an average of just 18.2 points per game in their last 5 games. The Lions have been solid against the pass this season and that will be a key in slowing down the New Orleans offense. At the same time, the Saints defense is unlikely to have any luck slowing down a Lions offense that was surging before last week's lackluster effort at St Louis. The Lions have some bad memories about key losses at the Superdome in years past and they want to erase those today with a strong performance. In a game with no playoff implications you look at motivation and current levels of play as key barometers. That said, the value here is with the underdog Lions. Play Detroit +3 as an *8* selection Monday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Western Kentucky -2.5 vs South Florida @ 2:30 PM ET - The key here is that the Bulls offense is not going to be able to keep up with the Hilltoppers. I am well aware of the fact that South Florida scored a bunch of points in their last few games of the season. However, a lot of that scoring was helped by the fact that the Bulls benefited from 9 turnovers in the last 3 games. The South Florida offense did run the ball very well but their passing attack is not "dangerous" enough and I look for Western Kentucky to work hard to stop the running game and this will challenge the Bulls offense to try and beat them through the air. The Hilltoppers defense gets a bad rap but they actually held their last 5 opponents to just 22.4 points per game. Also, Western Kentucky held their last five foes to an average of only 296.4 yards per game. These guys can play some defense and they are highly motivated about playing their former coach who ditched them to take the South Florida coaching game and that was right before a bowl game in 2012. The program hasn't forgotten that he bolted before the bowl game (one in which they lost) and that adds some extra incentive here. The Hilltoppers are averaging 520 yards and 44 points per game and this potent offense led by the fantastic talent of QB Brandon Doughty will prove to be too much for the Bulls to keep up with here. Play Western Kentucky minus the short number as an *8* selection Monday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +4 vs Arizona @ 8:30 PM ET - Even though the Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the league this season and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, there is a reason the line on tonight's game is so low. The Eagles are a very dangerous underdog in this spot. Philadelphia will be fired up for hosting this primetime game but truly has no pressure on them. Sure it would help the Eagles to win this game but their most important games are up ahead and against the Redskins and Giants. Philadelphia controls their own playoff destiny but they can get in even with losing today's game. Being able to play loose and being spurred on by the recent return of Sam Bradford means the Eagles are likely to have a big game tonight on their home turf. In home games where Bradford is under center, the Eagles have played well this season. The Cardinals are certainly due credit for how well they've played this season but the schedule has also been quite favorable. In match-ups against potential playoff teams (like the Eagles) Arizona lost to Pittsburgh, gave up 32 points to Seattle, and barely snuck by Cincinnati and Minnesota by a field goal margin each time. The point is that there is a lot of value with this line in the +4 range for the Eagles. In the 11 games that Bradford has played in this season, the Eagles have gone 6-5 and 3 of the 5 losses were by 3 points or less. That said, giving Philly +4 in each of their games with Bradford at QB this season and they would have a 9-2 ATS mark. Philadelphia's linebacking group is much healthier now then it has been earlier this season. They have played as well as they have all season in recent weeks. Yes the Eagles have been giving up some big yardage at times but they are known as a bend but don't break defense and the Eagles are flying high right now off of the back to back wins. The Cardinals do have some extra rest heading into this game but the Arizona injury report shows much more 'damage' than the Eagles injury report heading into this game. The healthy, hungry, and confident Eagles will 'play loose' tonight and I expect that to lead to a huge game for the offense that functions so well when it is running right and Bradford is the most comfortable he's been all season. Play Philadelphia plus the points as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs Denver @ 4:25 PM ET - Certainly Denver didn't necessarily "deserve" to lose to Oakland as the Broncos did outgain them by a 310-126 margin. However, the concern for the Broncos is simply that they don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the red hot Steelers in this game. Denver has been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The one game that Denver did eclipse 17 points was a bit of a fluke as they were down 21-7 to the Patriots in the FOURTH quarter of that game before the Pats essentially gave the game away. Now the struggling Broncos offense (still without Peyton Manning at QB) must try to keep up with a Steelers offense that has averaged 35 points per game in their last 5 games. Pittsburgh has not been held under 35 points in any of their last 5 games. The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 games while the Broncos have split their last 6 games. Pittsburgh is on a 12-4 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Denver is on a 6-10 ATS run when they are off of a divisional game. While I certainly respect the Broncos defense, this is the toughest offense they have seen since facing the Patriots - a game they definitely should have lost. Sunday afternoon look for the Steelers potent offense to key this victory. Play Pittsburgh -6 as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* OVER 42 in Seattle vs Cleveland @ 4:05 PM ET - There was some rain in Seattle this morning but the heavier showers will have moved away by gametime so it's no concern here. The Seahawks offense has been one of the best in the NFL in recent weeks as Seattle has averaged 35 points per game and 450 yards per game in their last four games. Overall the Seahawks have won 6 of their last 7 and have regained the swagger they seemed to have lost earlier this season. I look for another huge day from the Seattle offense today but don't be surprised if the Browns hang around in this one by putting up some solid points of their own in this one. Cleveland produced nearly 500 yards of offense last week and it was the 2nd time in the past three weeks that the Browns put up at least 24 points on the scoreboard. Seattle has allowed at least 27 points in 3 of their last 4 home games and the defense could reflect a dropoff in intensity this week as they are off back to back road wins that were a little bit "too easy". This is when teams tend to get too comfortable and I expect the Hawks defense to have some issues with that this week. But, that said, there is no stopping this Seahawks offense right now and that is why I am expecting a ton of points in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Play OVER 42 in Seattle as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Houston Texans +2 @ Indianapolis @ 1 PM ET - Both of these teams are off of bad losses last week but the Texans faced an angry and ultra-talented Patriots team that was fired up off of back to back losses. The Colts would struggle to find an excuse for their abysmal performance against the Jaguars last week. Indianapolis got blasted by Jacksonville and has now lost their last two games by a combined score of 96 to 26. The Colts performance (or lack thereof) on defense has been very concerning of late. That makes this a touch match-up for Indianapolis as they face a Texans team that has one of the top defenses in the league and that has been performing particularly well in recent weeks. Houston has allowed 313 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games! The Texans are seeking revenge from a 27-20 home loss to the Colts earlier this season and will take advantage of Andrew Luck's absence today. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. The Texans are 2-0 ATS this season (and 42-25 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on a losing streak of two games or more. Play Houston +2 as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play OVER 68.5 in Louisiana Tech vs Arkansas State @ 9 PM ET - It is difficult to envision either team getting many defensive stops in this one. The Red Wolves have scored an average of 49 points per game in their last 8 games! The Bulldogs only scored 24 points against Southern Mississippi in their season finale but they did have over 400 passing yards in the game. Louisiana Tech's offense was simply done in by turnovers in that game and that certainly was uncharacteristic of this team. The Bulldogs averaged 40 points per game in their first 10 games of the season. As you can see, even though the total on this game is a big one, there is really not a reason to expect anything less than a point total in the range of 90 points when the dust settles on this one. In fact, there will be no 'dust' in this game because it's being played indoors at the Superdome in New Orleans. Of course this adds even more value for the over in this game because it will be played on the 'fast track' of artificial turf and in a controlled environment where weather is of no concern. Add all this up and you have the perfect set up for this game to turn into a shootout/'track meet' in the New Orleans Bowl. Arkansas State enters this game off of a 55-17 win over Texas State and the Red Wolves are an incredible 15-1 to the over the last 3 seasons when they are off of a win versus a conference foe. The Bulldogs just allowed 58 points in their season finale and they are 3-1 to the over this season in non-conference action. The offenses are way ahead of the defenses in this one and it's a shootout in the Superdome. Play OVER 68.5 in Louisiana Tech as a *10* Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* New York Jets -3 @ Dallas @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys had a glimmer of hope of staying alive in the NFC East playoff race after the big Monday night win at Washington two weeks ago. However, even though they are still mathematically alive, the Cowboys have really hurt themselves with last week's loss at Green Bay. With all 3 of the other NFC East teams sitting at 6-7 on the season and Dallas a full two games back at 4-9 with just 3 games to go, the Cowboys know the handwriting is on the wall. Their playoff hopes are, for all intents and purposes, truly over. Dallas, after producing just 7 points on only 11 first downs and 270 yards at Green Bay last week, now has to host a Jets team playing with a ton of energy and emotion. The Jets have ripped off three straight wins to vault right into the AFC Wild Card race with a solid 8-5 record. This match-up Saturday is a classic case of two teams at the opposite end of the motivation/emotion scale and I look for the Jets to win this one in a road rout. The Jets have produced over 400 yards of offense in each of their last three games. The Cowboys have been held under 318 yards in each of their last three games. Look for Dallas to drop to 1-6 ATS in home games this season while the Jets improve to 9-2 ATS in December games the last three seasons combined. Play the New York Jets -3 as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Ohio University Bobcats +7.5 vs Appalachian State @ 5:30 PM ET - Though Ohio University has been dealing with injuries this season, the Bobcats have truly 'scratched and clawed' their way to a solid finish. Ohio U. ended up with an 8-4 record on the season thanks to three straight wins to end the season. This was a very impressive finish for a Bobcats team that was certainly impacted by injuries. Ohio University is highly motivated for this game as they feel disrespected by the line on this game. Appalachian State is a SunBelt Conference foe and, even with a 10-2 record on the season, the line on the Mountaineers here is truly over-inflated. The MAC may not be a power conference but it's stronger than the SunBelt. Additionally, the Bobcats beat a solid Northern Illinois team to wrap up the season. In addition to the motivation and 'strength of schedule' edges, Ohio U. also has the significantly better special teams units and a big coaching edge here with Solich having coached 6 bowl games with the Bobcats and 6 bowl games when he was with Nebraska. Mountaineers head coach Satterfield will be coaching his first ever bowl game. Appalachian State has a long-term 4-9 ATS record in non-conference games. Ohio U. is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. The motivated big dog is going to give Appalachian State all they can handle here and might even spring the outright upset. Play Ohio University +7.5 as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 @ St Louis @ 8:25 ET Thursday - A lot of line movement toward the Rams here has opened up some nice line value for the Bucs here. St Louis is off of a win against the Lions on Sunday but the Rams had previously lost five straight games and three of those losses came by a margin of defeat of 24 points. That said, I see great line value with being able to get the Buccaneers at a full +3 in this game. Tampa Bay is off of a loss at New Orleans but had won three of their four prior games. The Bucs also are seeking revenge here for a home loss to the Rams last season. The Buccaneers have taken advantage when facing weaker competition this season as Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs are also 4-2 ATS in road games this season and, again, great value with getting the full field goal here. St Louis is 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS the last three seasons in games with a line in a range of -3 to +3. The Rams don't have a good history with Thursday games either as they are 1-5 ATS in these weekday affairs. The Bucs defense has struggled recently against the pass but the Rams have one of the worst passing attacks in the league so St Louis will be unable to take advantage. That said, Tampa Bay's recent run of success at stopping the run continues here and that should turn this one into a nice road win for the Bucs. Take the better offense, off of a loss, and playing with home loss revenge. Play Tampa Bay +3 as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Miami Dolphins +2 vs NY Giants @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Giants continue to find ways to lose games even when they have the late lead. This team just can't be trusted right now. Also, could Eli Manning's ankle be a bother to him tonight? You know the Dolphins defense tonight will be designed to pressure him early and often. As for the other side of the ball, much has been made of Ryan Tannehill's poor performance last week but he was off of a huge game against the Jets the week before. Also, the Giants are last in the league for sack percentage on defense. The inability of the Giants front line to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks has a lot to do with the secondary consistently getting burned as the Giants have the worst pass defense in the league. They were torched by the Jets last week and that's the same Jets team that Tannhehill just had a huge game against two weeks ago. The Giants only managed 14 first downs against the Jets. The Dolphins had 20 first downs in their game against the Jets. Miami is 3-1 straight-up and ATS in home games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The fact that a high-scoring game is expected here has mean going strong with the Dolphins. I feel their defense at home can be trusted much moreso than the Giants defense on the road to get the key stops necessary to win this game. The Giants defense has failed them so many times in the fourth quarter of games too. If you're looking for the Giants to bounce back just because they've lost three straight you may be disappointed. The Giants are 5-10 straight-up when they enter a game on a streak of two or more consecutive losses. Also, the Giants are 1-3 straight-up and ATS in their last 4 Monday night appearances. The Dolphins win over the Ravens last week was not pretty but it is a victory they can build off while the Giants sink further into their current state of a true meltdown. Play Miami as an *8* selection Monday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -4.5 @ Houston @ 8:30 ET - The Patriots should blast the Texans here. JJ Watt's injury is a significant concern as it's not just the broken hand, it's the groin injury that is effecting him. The Patriots lost to the Eagles last week for a RARE second straight loss but they ougained Philadelphia by nearly 200 yards in the game. The same blunders (including special teams) that impacted them last week are unlikely to occur again this week. Of course with Tom Brady we have a huge edge at the QB position with comparing these two teams and the Patriots are extremely hungry and have not lost three straight games since 2002. The Texans defense has been getting a lot of positive press but they truly are impacted by the Watt injury and the fact they got shredded throughout the first half of the game against the Bills last week is cause for concern. Some of their other big recent performances had a lot to do with facing weak opposition. Even with some of his weapons being hurt, Brady still has plenty of options to go to and he and coach Belichick can absolutely pick apart this Texans defense. Look for the Pats to improve upon a 54-34 ATS record when in the last four weeks of the regular season. Also, New England is 22-13 ATS against AFC South opposition. The Texans are in trouble as the Patriots are angry, focused, and ready to operate at precision under the primetime lights Sunday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs Dallas @ 4:25 ET - The Packers were indeed fortunate in their win at Detroit in last week's action. However, a win like that can also do wonders for a team's momentum and this is especially true when that team is now at home and also now in a tie for first place in their division. Green Bay comes into this game with extra rest since they faced the Lions in a Thursday night game last week. Also, they catch Dallas on short rest as the Cowboys battled the Redskins in Washington last week. That huge Cowboys win was the first for Dallas without Romo under center this season. The Cowboys are still just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in games that Romo has not started at QB for Dallas this season. I look for the Cowboys to get blasted on the road here. Huge home field edge for Green Bay here and the big rest edge is just adding even more line value. This line has dropped on gameday morning and that is adding even more value to this play. Green Bay is 18-9-1 ATS as a home favorite facing a non-divisional foe. Dallas has been held to 20 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games. The Cowboys anemic offense is going to struggle to keep up with a Packers offense that has scored at least 27 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. Look for Dallas to drop to 2-7 ATS in games not started by Romo while Rodgers and Company, rejuvenated by last week's results, roll at home here and improve on a long-term 60-36 ATS mark in December games.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 @ Cincinnati @ 1 ET - Steelers seek revenge for home loss to Cincinnati earlier this season. Roethlisberger was rusty in that game as he had just returned from injury. There is certainly nothing rusty about the way the Pittsburgh QB has been playing now. The Steelers will build off of their absolutely dominating effort against the Colts on Sunday night by upsetting the Bengals on the road here. Going to grab the points but don't expect to need them. Steelers have been piling up yardage like crazy. The Bengals offense truly has not been as strong as some of their recent point totals would lead you to believe. Just take a look at the yardage stats for further evidence of that. Also, Cincinnati is 3-2 in their 5 games since facing the Steelers but they beat a 2-10 Browns team twice and a 4-8 St Louis team in the other game. The Bengals lost both of their games against tougher competition (Houston and Arizona) and Cincy now faces a red hot Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is on an 8-1 ATS run in December games. I don't see trend ending here. Pitt is fired up about finishing the season strong with Big Ben under center and healthy again. Key game for post-season aspirations of the Steelers and they get the job done here.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Philadelphia Eagles +1 vs Buffalo @ 1 ET - The Eagles were certainly fortunate in their huge upset win at New England last week. However, don't discount the fact that Philadelphia made plays when they had to on offense and certainly the defense and special teams made huge plays to be catalysts for the win. With that victory the Eagles are now tied for first place in the NFC East and that has done wonders for the locker room. What has also done wonders for the locker room in terms of adding motivation for this game Sunday is all the 'chalk board material' that Bills RB, and former Eagle, LeSean McCoy has been providing. The Eagles defense is fired up beyond belief for this game. At the same time, the offense is absolutely going to take advantage of a Bills defense that has been ravaged by injuries including losing some of their best players heading into this game. Buffalo is on a 13-24 ATS run as a road dog of 3 points or less. The Eagles are on a 17-11 ATS run against teams from the AFC East. Huge edge here with the line in a pick'em range, the Eagles at home, the Bills defense hurting, and with McCoy giving the Eagles plenty of motivation - not that they needed it, playoffs are in sight for Philly after last week's results.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 41 in St Louis vs Detroit @ 1 ET - Look for the Rams offense to get a boost with Case Keenum at QB. Certainly things can't get much worse for the St Louis offense but the fact is that a QB change at a time like this can do wonders for a team and the Rams will certainly come into this game relaxed as they are truly at a point of just "playing out the string" on the season. What will help their offense here is that I expect the Lions defense to be a little flat after the emotional impact of losing on a hail mary pass on the final play of their game against a key division rival, the Packers, last week. That really was a crushing blow for the Lions and their defensive intensity is likely to suffer here as a result. On the other side of the ball, the Detroit offense certainly has been firing on all cylinders and they averaged nearly 260 passing yards per game in their last four games. Having scored an average of 34 points per game their last two games, Detroit's offense is unlikely to be slowed down by a Rams defense that has allowed 140 rushing yards or more in four of their last five games. St Louis also has given up an average of 280 passing yards per game the last four games. The Over is 4-0 in Rams games where they are a home dog of three points or less. The over is 13-6 in Lions games where they are a road favorite of three points or less. 

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* OVER 50 in Navy vs Army @ 3 PM ET - This is a contrarian play to say the least. These teams have combined to stay under the total in each of their last nine meetings. Of course the posted total on this game has dropped down lower this year as a result and I always enjoy going against the grain and feel there is justification for the over here. For one thing, the weather is springlike in Philly right now. It is just absolutely unseasonably mild and the winds are expected to be light with warm temperatures again on Saturday. This is significant because oftentimes this game is played in cold conditions or with rain or snow falling. The mild weather will allow both offenses to function well and I just don't see Army's defense as being able to stop Navy here. The Black Knights have allowed at least 31 points in 5 of their last 7 games. In fact, in those 5 games Army allowed an average of 36.6 points per game and the Black Knights will struggle to contain a Navy offense that has averaged 44 points per game in their last four games. The other key here that is not being recognized properly by the betting markets here is that Navy's defense just got ripped for 52 points in their most recent game. That has shaken their confidence a bit heading into this game and Army has scored at least 21 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The end result here is a game that should end up in the 44-21 range and that spells o-v-e-r in a big way. Play OVER 50 in Navy as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 45.5 in Arizona vs Minnesota @ 8:25 ET - The Vikings defense is loaded with injuries right now including some of their top defensive players. Now Minnesota, all banged up, must go on the road and face a Cardinals offense that ranks among the best in the league. The Cards certainly could have scored more than 27 points last week as they erupted for over 500 yards off offense. That was the 4th time in their last seven games that Arizona has gained over 450 yards. The Vikings won't be able to stop them. This will result in Minnesota having to abandon their ground game and get QB Bridgewater to get the ball down the field early and often. He and the Vikings offense are eager to atone for an embarrassing performance at home against Seattle last week while the Cardinals defense could get caught here feeling a little too good about themselves after their dominating effort at St Louis last week. The Cards are 4-1 to the over in their home games this season. Arizona also is 6-2 to the over when off of a divisional win and 15-8 to the over in their last 23 as a favorite. The Vikings have mostly been an 'under team' this season but all the defensive injuries coupled with the fact that Vikes will have to throw the ball to try and keep up with the potent Cardinals offense here has me liking the over quite a lot in this one. Look for Bridgewater and company to get some redemption this week but their defense is likely to get ripped apart by the potent Cardinals offense. Play OVER 45.5 in Arizona as an *8* selection.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Dallas Cowboys +4 @ Washington @ 8:30 PM ET Monday - The Cowboys are again without Tony Romo but their loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving Day was deceiving. Turnovers were the key as Dallas did hold the Panthers to just 294 yards of offense in that game. In fact, the Cowboys have now held five of their last six opponents to 327 yards of offense or less. This has all come since the bye week and, even in their final game before the bye week Dallas held New England to 356 yards. I like having the dog here in a primetime affair where motivation will be high (not to mention the fact this game is huge for Dallas to get back into the NFC East race). Also, the Cowboys have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Redskins and the lone loss came by just three points. Dallas has averaged 147 rushing yards per game in their last three road games. I look for the rested Cowboys to establish the run early against the Skins defense and I look for yet another solid performance from the Dallas defense to key this road upset win. I am grabbing the points but expecting the outright win. The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played on grass. The Redskins are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. The Skins have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games. Washington has been held to 270 yards of offense or less in 4 of those 7 games. Look for the Redskins to again struggle in the role of a favorite. It's been an issue with Washington for a long time.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 vs Indianapolis @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Steelers put up over 500 yards of offense on the road at Seattle last week. That's not an easy thing to do at the home of the "12th Man". What is also not an easy thing to do is to put up over 500 yards of offense and still lose the game. Needless to say, the Steelers are fired up here after the tough defeat on the road and Pittsburgh is known for dominating in these primetime games. Look for the Steelers to bounce back off of that tough loss as they have some good game planning in place to put a stop the Colts improbable recent run. Indy's QB, Hasselbeck, is now 4-0 as a starter on the season but certainly Indianapolis has taken advantage of facing some weaker opposition and that all comes to an end this week as they face the Steelers in Pittsburgh and in primetime action and in a situation where the opposing defense will have their ears pinned back. The Steelers D was not happy at all about all the missed tackles and poor tackling last week and they will be extremely fired up for a huge performance on national TV tonight. Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 ATS in the month of December the past two seasons. Also, the Steelers are on a 10-4 ATS run in games against team with a winning record. The Colts are on 9-14 ATS run as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Just like last year's 17 point victory in their match-up with Indy, look for the Steelers to get another blowout win here. Play Pittsburgh minus the points as an *8* selection Sunday night. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in San Diego vs Denver @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Broncos are coming off of their amazing come from behind win over the Patriots last week. That ended New England's undefeated season and also means that Denver is now 2-0 with Osweiler at QB. While I do expect Osweiler and the Broncos offense to enjoy continued success here against the weak defense of the Chargers, I also expect the Broncos defense to be a little flat after the big win over New England. It's inevitable after the emotional high of shutting down Tom Brady and Company and, keep in mind, the Patriots are really hurting with injuries to the offense right now. That said, the Broncos defensive performance against the Pats may not be as impressive as one might think. Now Denver has to face a Chargers offense that, thanks to Rivers at QB, is one of the top passing offenses in the league. Also, San Diego is much healthier than the Patriots offense is right now. The Chargers will get their share of big points here but the San Diego defense has struggled all season. They particularly have been getting gashed on the ground and this will allow Denver to get the ground game going and open things up for a big aerial attack from Osweiler and Company in this one. The over is 5-1 in Chargers home games with posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The over is 9-5 in the Broncos last 14 games against teams with a losing record. Play OVER 43.5 in San Diego as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Oakland Raiders +3 vs Kansas City @ 4:05 ET Sunday - This is a classic contrarian play. With the Chiefs having won and covered 5 straight games why would they only be a 3 point favorite against an Oakland team that has a combined 12-31 record the last 3 seasons combined? Seriously...think about that for a moment...and the conclusion you come to is that, indeed, it does not make sense! That is precisely a key reason as to why Oakland is the play here. The reason the Chiefs are such a small favorite here is because they are off some big wins and they've also been very fortunate. The turnover margin is 14-0 in favor of the Chiefs in their last five games. Certainly some credit goes to Kansas City for achieving that margin but, make no mistake about it, the ball has been bouncing their way. Now the Chiefs face a hungry Raiders team that definitely has its sights set on moving into a 2nd place tie in the AFC West with Kansas City by getting a big home win today. Note that the Chiefs allowed over 400 yards to the Bills last week and that game was in Kansas City. The Chiefs were fortunate to get that win and now head west to face a Raiders aerial attack that has produced at least 282 passing yards in 5 of their last 6 games. Oakland has averaged 26 points per game in their last 6 games. The Raiders defense has been quite solid in recent games and allowed less than 250 yards at Tennessee last week. Oakland is 6-2 ATS against AFC teams this season and the Raiders are 5-2 ATS as an underdog. The Chiefs are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Play Oakland +3 as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 43 in St Louis vs Arizona @ 1 ET Sunday - Big revenge game for the Cardinals as they lost 24-22 at home against the Rams back in early October. Of course what this means is that Arizona is going to keep the hammer down in this one even if they do get a big lead and that is why the over is a strong play here. The Cardinals won't take their foot off of the gas in this one and this is an Arizona team that has averaged 32 points per game this season. As for the Cardinals defense, they were fortunate to only allow 13 points to the 49'ers last week as San Francisco threw for over 300 yards against them. Look for Nick Foles to have a big game for the Rams as he steps back in as the starter at QB this week. The St Louis offense has been victimized by turnovers in recent weeks so don't be fooled by their low recent point totals. The Rams can put up some big points here. The Cardinals defense had allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last three games before holding San Francisco to just 13 points. As noted above, that low point total was a bit of a fluke when you look at the success in the passing game that the Niners were able to achieve. That said, look for plenty of success for both offenses in this one on the fast track turf in the dome in St Louis. The Rams are 16-10 to the over in dome games. Arizona is 5-1 to the over in dome games this season and the Cardinals are 6-1 to the over the last three seasons when they are off of a win against a division rival. Play OVER 43 in St Louis as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Michigan State -3.5 vs Iowa @ 8:15 ET Saturday - The line may look 'off' to many but that's precisely why this is such a big play for me. Why is an undefeated and higher-ranked Iowa team the underdog in this match-up with an 11-1 Michigan State team? Precisely! It's exactly why I love the Spartans here and it doesn't take much investigation to uncover the key reasons for the 'head-scratching' line that was set on this game. The biggest key is strength of schedule. The Spartans played a much tougher schedule this season than did the Hawkeyes. The schedule worked out very favorably for Iowa this season as they were able to avoid all the power in the Big Ten East. The Hawkeyes did not play Michigan State, Ohio State, or Michigan this season. Note that the Spartans did play both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines and won both games. Though the Michigan win was certainly a fortunate win the fact is that just having played huge games against top tier teams in the conference like Michigan and Ohio State is giving a huge edge to Michigan State in this game in my opinion. The Hawkeyes are extremely fortunate they remained undefeated on the season as last week's game at Nebraska saw Iowa outgained by nearly 200 yards and the Cornhuskers doubled up the Hawkeyes in first downs! This is a huge game because, of course, the winner is heading for one of the top 4 playoff spots and Michigan State comes into this game with a full head of steam after following up their key win over Ohio State by steam-rolling Penn State last week! The Spartans late loss to Nebraska on November 7th actually helps them here as they no longer have the unbeaten pressure that still remains on Iowa. As shown recently, Michigan State is rolling ever since that defeat and the Hawkeyes are starting to show the effects of the unbeaten pressure as they were truly outplayed by Nebraska last week. This week it catches up with the Hawkeyes as they face their toughest test of the year and I don't see them having success against this fierce Spartans defense. Play Michigan State minus the points as a *10* Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play OVER 58 in Stanford vs USC @ 7:45 ET Saturday - This is a very manageable total especially when you consider the Trojans have scored at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games this season. USC did put up 31 points against Stanford in their regular season match-up back in September and the Cardinal got to the Trojans for 41 as that game went over the total easily. Stanford began this season with a 16-6 loss at Northwestern but they have since scored at least 30 points in every game this season. The Cardinal have averaged nearly 40 points per game in their last 11 games and I look for both teams to again enjoy plenty of success on offense today. Perfect weather conditions, both teams coming off of confidence-boosting wins in rivalry games, and two defenses that haven't exactly been setting the world on fire recently. The Cardinal have allowed an average of 32 points per game in their last three games while the Trojans have given up  30 points per game in their last 7 games. Both teams are off of emotional wins that could leave the defenses a little 'spent' heading into this one while each offense has so much firepower (including big play potential) that I see this game turning into a back and forth track meet. Play OVER the total in the Pac 12 Championship Game as a *10 Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* San Diego State -6.5 vs Air Force @ 7:30 ET Saturday - The big news for the Aztecs is the injury to their QB but with their powerful ground game and the size edge they have with their offensive line, I just don't see the undersized Falcons stopping the powerful rushing attack of San Diego State. The Aztecs have absolutely dominated in Mountain West Conference action with an 8-0 SU mark and a 7-1 ATS mark and the Falcons are off of a game where they allowed 377 rushing yards at New Mexico! Air Force now has to try and stop a San Diego State team that put up 320 rushing yards on Nevada last week. Also concerning for the Falcons is the fact they are facing one of the top defensive units in the nation. The Aztecs are allowing an average of 11.3 points per game in their last 8 games. San Diego State has not allowed more than 17 points in any of those 8 games. They also are the host of this Mountain West Championship game and the Aztecs have averaged nearly 34 points per game in their home games this season. This game has blowout written all over it as the Falcons triple option attack is something the Aztecs defense is built to stop. Play San Diego State minus the points an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Bowling Green Falcons -12 vs Northern Illinois @ 8 ET Friday - As much as I do respect Northern Illinois their QB situation is simply so bad here that it is just too much to ask QB Tommy Fiedler to come in and be their savior in the MAC Championship Game. First off, the Huskies are lucky to even be here. Northern Illinois lost starting QB Ryan Graham to injury in the game against Ohio University last week and this helped pave the way for a loss to the Bobcats. The only reason the Huskies made it to the MAC Championship Game is because Western Michigan beat Toledo last week and that created a tie at the top of the standings that allowed Northern Illinois to sneak into this game. The Huskies can say all they want about how they're ready for this game and how they have full confidence in their freshman QB, etc. but the fact is this guy is going from no college action (prior to the Ohio game) to now starting in a MAC Championship Game and trying to help his team match scores with a Bowling Green aerial attack that has simply been phenomenal this season. I just don't see this happening. I don't see the Huskies being able to keep pace with the Falcons on the fast track at Ford Field. The Falcons also have revenge on their minds after losing to the Huskies by 34 in this game last year. The year before it was Bowling Green on the right side of a 20 point blowout. I look for this year's game to land somewhere in that range as well with BG on the right side of a win by a margin of 3 to 5 TD's. The Huskies offense will struggle with Fiedler at the helm while Bowling Green's offense comes in averaging a ridiculous 566 yards per game on the season. Additionally, the Falcons confidence on the defensive side of the ball has grown as they've allowed just 14.2 points per game in their lsat 5 wins so it hasn't just been the offense getting the job done for Bowling Green. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS this season as a fave of 10.5 to 21 points. The Huskies are on a 2-7 ATS run in dome games. Play Bowling Green minus the points as an *8* Play Friday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Detroit Lions +3 vs Green Bay @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Many may be looking for Detroit to be flat after their big Thanksgiving win over the Eagles and for the Packers to be in full bounce back mode are their Thanksgiving loss to the Bears. In fact, that is what is helping to give line value to the home dog Lions here. The fact is that this is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions but we can take advantage of line value being offered because of traditional market metrics. The traditional market adjustments would suggest that the Packers need to bounce back off of a loss, the Lions will be flat off of a big win, and Green Bay will be fired up to avenge their home loss to Green Bay a few weeks back. The reality though is that the Packers have lost four of their last five games since their bye week while Detroit has won three straight games since their bye week. The Lions are peaking at the right time and have played exceptionally well on both sides of the ball the last two weeks. The Packers have struggled so much recently that there is a bit of weakness now in this locker room and the same confident swagger this team had before just isn't there right now as injuries have certainly also impacted that factor as well. Detroit has won and covered the last two meetings here by a combined score of 59 to 17 and the Lions have a ton of confidence heading into this game. The Packers are on a 4-11 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record (as GB continues to be overvalued) while I look for the Lions to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 Thursday games! Play Detroit plus the points as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -2.5 @ Denver @ 8:30 ET Sunday - Bill Belichick is going to have a field day with Brock Osweiler. Sure the Broncos QB had a good first NFL career start against a 4-6 Bears team last week but now he faces the 10-0 Patriots and NFL mastermind Belihick. The Patriots head coach has long been known for throwing confusing defensive schematics at young, in experienced QBs and you know that Belichick will have some tricks up his sleeve for this one. The Broncos were fortunate to escape Chicago with a victory and the QB situation here of Tom Brady over Osweiler makes this play a very safe bet barring any unforeseen nonsense in this game. New England's defense has quietly shut down 3 of their last 4 opponents as the Pats have allowed just 10 points per game in those 3 games. Denver's defense has been the 'headliner' this season but the Broncos now face the top ranked offense in the league. Also, Denver's defense did allow 28 points per game in their two games prior to sneaking out the win over the Bears. New England has won the last two regular season meetings between the teams but lost in the playoffs in Denver in January of 2014. That means it's time for a little payback on Sunday and, as noted above, a huge key is going to be how Belichick's D completely frustrates the young Denver QB while Brady and Company continue their solid season on the other side of the ball. Yes, the Pats offense certainly has a few injury issues but this team is still an offensive juggernaut that will get the job done in the mile high city tonight. A little snow is not a bother to the Pats. Play England -2.5 as a *10* Top Play Sunday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Seattle vs Pittsburgh @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Steelers are fresh off of their bye week and have averaged over 400 passing yards per game in their last two games. The Seahawks are showing a boost in confidence as they've now won 3 of their last 4 games and have averaged 30.5 points in their last two games while producing over 500 yards of offense last week! Pittsburgh has averaged 34 points per game in their last two games and I am expecting a wild one in Seattle Sunday. The Steelers have been boosted with the return of Ben Roethlisberger and the Seahawks defense has allowed at least 27 points in half their games this season. Pittsburgh has a solid offense that will test the Seahawks defense early and often and the Hawks D just isn't quite the dominant force it once was. As for the Steelers defense, they have struggled to stop the pass and even with Marshawn Lynch out it is not like Pittsburgh can ignore the run game of Seattle. RB Rawls posted 255 total yards last week and had two TD's and his running ability is opening up the aerial attack for the Seahawks who looked much sharper on offense last week. They are settling into a nice rhythm offensively and both teams should move the ball extremely well here. Seattle has gone over the total in 4 of their last 6 games and they're 3-0 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 9-2 in Seahawks games against the AFC the last 3 seasons combined. The over is 8-3 in Steelers games against the NFC the last 3 seasons combined. Play OVER the total in Seattle as a *10* Top Play.