Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #115 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boise State Broncos vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ 4 ET - Boise State is hosting the MWC Championship Game and the weather will be decent here. Some showers around in the morning and evening but it is likely to be dry for much, if not all, of this game. Also, winds are expected to be near 12 miles per hour. High temperatures near 50 today so definitely a decent day by December standards in Idaho. That said, I look for another shootout between these teams. They combined for 96 points in their regular season meeting this year. I am aware of the QB situation for each team and the Broncos Henderson has been filling in just fine for Bachmeier. Also, the Warriors are getting strong play from McDonald so the fact Cordeiro left the last game is not an issue here. Hawaii enters this game having scored 31 points or more in 9 of 13 games this season. Boise State has scored 30 points or more in 9 of its 12 games this season. The point is that you already into the 60s here for a point total if each team just has a "typical" game on offense but, keep in mind, there was nothing "typical" about these teams combining for nearly 100 points in the first meeting. Also, the Broncos are favored by two touchdowns here with good reason. Keep in mind they want to have a strong showing here too to make sure they get a strong bowl bid for New Year's Day as well. The point is that Boise will not take their foot off the gas and Hawaii is certainly not known for strength on defense. The Warriors won't be able to stop the Broncos but look for Hawaii's offense to score their fair share as well in this game. The over is a perfect 3-0 L3 when the Warriors are off a win by 21 or more points. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 L5 when Hawaii is an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. The Broncos have averaged scoring 52 points per game in their last 6 games against the Warriors but I expect Hawaii to hang around for quite awhile in this game. That is why this game should get well into the 70s if not 80s. Look for another shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Boise State

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #113 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (+) @ Memphis Tigers in AAC Championship Game @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats rested QB Desmond Ridder in last week's game against Memphis because the contest had no bearing on anything for Cincinnati. I am well aware of the fact Ridder has been struggling but he had been hurt too. This was effecting his play. He could have played last week but the Cats held him out to make sure he could heal up even more for this game. That means he is essentially coming off a bye week and that is certainly noteworthy. Ridder has thrown for 5 TDs against just 2 INTs plus run for 169 yards and 8 yards per carry in the two games he has played this season when coming off a bye week. Look for fresh legs and arm from Ridder in this one but also note that back-up QB Ben Bryant got some valuable work in last week's game against the Tigers. The Cincy offense is in good shape here and in terms of comparing the two defenses, the Bearcats certainly hold the edge. Prior to last week's loss (again a meaningless game for Cincinnati) the Cats defense has allowed an average of just 18 points per game over 9 preceding games. The Tigers defense, prior to a win over South Florida and then last week's game which meant nothing to Cincy, had allowed 33 points per game their 6 preceding games. The Bearcats are going to be tough for the Tigers to defeat here, let alone cover the large spread! The Cats are 10-2 this season with the only losses coming to powerful Ohio State and then last week's meaningless game against this same Memphis team. I am grabbing the big points here. 8* CINCINNATI

Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #103 Friday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET in Pac-12 Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - Waiting has paid off as this line is now a 7. Keep in mind the very first line that popped on this game globally was a 2.5 and we have seen major movement ever since. Now that it has reached all the way up to a +7 it is "go time" for me with this one. The Utes have covered 8 straight games ATS and so of course they are attracting a ton of attention here. However, not enough respect is being given to an Oregon team that is having a great season too. Utah does rate the edge on defense but, keep in mind, the Ducks are at least as good, if not better, on the offensive side of the ball. Also, Oregon has the special teams edge in this match-up. The weather is not going to be great for this game with windy conditions and rain moving into the area. A lot of times that favors an underdog. Keep in mind a favorite has to not only win the game but build a margin to cash in at the window. It becomes much tougher to build a margin when you're also batting the elements. The Ducks hold the special teams edge and the kicking and punting game can become critical in a game like this where weather comes into play. I would not be surprised to see Oregon get the upset win and the fact we are not able to get +7 with the Ducks is of course a key with this game now reaching that key number as of mid-morning Friday. Oregon is 10-2 SU this season and the two losses came by 6 or less points. The pressure is on the Utes here. They still have hopes of making the CFB playoff and a huge win here is required. The Ducks are playing this game with no pressure on them. That makes a huge difference. Also, in the only two tough games that Utah has played away from home this season they beat Washington by just 5 points and they lost at USC by 7 points. Are they really going to travel outside of Utah here and beat a high quality Oregon program by more than 7 points in tough weather conditions in a game in which all the pressure is on the Utes as well? I highly doubt that. The Ducks are 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS this season when off a home win. The Utes are a long-term 1-3 ATS as a neutral field fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Utah beat Oregon last year but head coach Kyle Whittingham entered that game with a career record of 1-5 SU against the Ducks and it is payback time here. Oregon had been undefeated in Pac-12 action before their loss to Arizona State two weeks ago. That said, it is not surprising that they followed up that loss with a lackluster and sloppy effort against Oregon State last week. They turned the ball over 4 times and it was an ugly game in which the Ducks were actually even a bit fortunate to win the game by 14 points. While the Utes have already played their best football of the season, don't be surprised if that is what we now see from the Ducks in this one and I would not be surprised at all to see an upset in this game but certainly am happy to grab the 7 points as added insurance here. 10* OREGON

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys have lost 3 of their past 4 games. The Bears have won 3 of their past 4 games. Chicago is also on a 10-5 ATS run in its last 15 home games. We're down to the clutch time of the season...the final quarter...the final 4 games of the regular season. Dallas, in Games 13 through 16 of a season, has gone 1-13 ATS when off a SU/ATS non-divisional loss and facing a team playing with revenge. Keep in mind, the Cowboys lost outright as a favorite to the Bills on Thanksgiving and also the Bears have revenge from the most recent meeting between these teams in 2016 so that system is fully in play here. Also, in the final quarter of a season, the Cowboys are 2-13 ATS when they have a losing record and are playing on the road. Now I know Dallas is at .500 on the season but the point is that you can see from that stat that the Cowboys aren't known for being stalwarts when having a mediocre or losing season and playing on the road late in the season. The Bears certainly hold the momentum edge here with wins in 3 of 4 while Dallas has losses in 3 of 4. Chicago is 7-1 ATS when off B2B SU wins and facing an NFC opponent. The Bears have held 5 of 6 opponents to 17 points or less at Soldier Field this season. The Cowboys have allowed 18 points or more in 4 of their 6 road games this season. I understand why Dallas is favored as market perception carries a lot of weight with the betting masses but I expect the Bears to win this outright and will gladly grab the added insurance of having them plus a field goal as a home dog here. 10* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Something seems a little "off" with this one at first glance and that is why the public is hammering Seattle but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side here. The Seahawks opened up as a 1.5 point favorite even though there are a number of factors that would have suggested they should be a much bigger favorite at home. Sure enough the betting markets have pushed the line on Seattle to as high as a -3 but don't be fooled by all this. The odds makers set the line this way for a reason. I am aware that the Vikings have a recent history of struggling after bye weeks and Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins often struggles in night games. However, this line was set like this for a reason and I am backing the Vikings here. Keep in mind, the Seahawks are only 3-2 SU at home this season and one of the wins came in OT while the other two victories each came by just a single point! What that means is that in ALL 5 home games this season, when the clock hit zeroes in regulation, Seattle has NEVER been on top by more than ONE point! As for the Vikings, they are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and the only loss came by just 3 points. Also, 4 of those 7 games were on the road. Now you understand the line a little better and also you can see the reasoning as to why I am going with a top play here on the road dog plus the points! 10* MINNESOTA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots don't lose often but, when they do, it tends to be on the road and facing a tough team. This one fits the bill in that regard and I like having the Texans getting +3.5 here as a home dog. Houston is 4-1 SU this season at home and this looks like a great spot for a struggling Patriots offense to not be able to do enough to get the road cover. The Texans should be able to put enough points on the board here to outscore the slumbering Pats offense. New England has scored an average of just 16.7 points per game their last 3 games. The NE defense has allowed 23.5 points per game in their past two road games. The Texans have averaged scoring 33.3 points per game in their last 3 games played in Houston. In Texans games played at home or a neutral site (London), their defense has allowed an average of just 17.3 points per game. Houston won last week against Indianapolis SU but it was an ATS loss. When the Texans are off a non-covering SU win they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS the next week. After falling just short for their backers last week, look for the Texans to make up for that here and improve the aforementioned marks to 5-0 SU and ATS. Again, I know it is always tough to go against Belichick and Brady and the Patriots but this the right time and place to do just that. 8* HOUSTON

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #461 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - I am well aware of the weather conditions at Arrowhead Stadium for this one. No precipitation expected but winds of 15 to 20 mph and temperatures near freezing. This weather has helped bring this total down from mid-50s to the upper-40s and I don't expect many defensive stops in this one. The wind certainly can have some impact on the game but I like the fact that we can fade two really bad defenses here and lets not forget that much of the passing game in today's NFL is quick, short passes that are set up to allow for big yardage after the catch. It is not so much about trying to be super accurate with long passes downfield. Also, don't be surprised if the Raiders offense enjoys success on the ground here as the Chiefs rushing defense ranks among the worst in the NFL. As for the Oakland defense they particularly struggle against the pass and the Kansas City passing attack ranks among the best in the league. I also like the fact that both QBs are off sub-par games. Look for Mahomes to be much better after the bye week and look for Carr to bounce back after he and his teammates clearly overlooked the Jets last week and they paid for it by being handed an ugly loss. The over is a long-term 4-1 when Oakland is off a game in which they were a favorite but lost outright by 21 or more points. Also, the over is 3-1 this season when the Raiders are a road dog. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when the Chiefs are facing a team with a winning record. The weather is not ideal but it is not going to effect these offenses as much as many are thinking it will. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #467 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - QB Jared Goff has struggled badly in recent games but this has included facing tough defenses like the Ravens, Bears, Steelers and what started all this was a nightmare game against the tough defense of the Niners. Mixed into this stretch was a game against the Bengals and, of course, Goff took advantage of that. The point is that level of competition is an important factor when evaluating performance and I look for Goff (and the Rams) to get back up off the mat in a big way in this game. Yes LA is on the road for this one and on a short week but a road trip from Los Angeles to Arizona is not much of a road trip at all! The Cardinals are off their bye week but QB Kyler Murray is still bothered by a hamstring injury. The Cards are better this season than they've been in recent seasons but this is still an Arizona team that has won just 3 of its 11 games this season and that has been blasted by the Rams in recent meetings. Los Angeles has won the last 4 meetings by a combined score of 130 to 25. Keep in mind, LA is in an angry mood too after being embarrassed by Baltimore on Monday night football. In other words, they are not going to let up here and I look for a huge road win and will gladly take advantage of the line move here which has pushed the Rams down to as low as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - With the injuries the Steelers have heading into this week plus the switch from Rudolph to Hodges at QB, the whole world is jumping on Cleveland in this one. I'll gladly play contrarian here and grab the extra value now being offered to Pittsburgh in this divisional match-up. Watch the Steelers respond to the QB move this week as everyone ups their game on both sides of the ball. You often see this when a QB switch happens and let us not forget that Pittsburgh is at home for this game. The Steelers tend to play tougher at home and this is a defense that has allowed an average of just 15.9 points per game their past 8 games. Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU at home this season their two losses as a host came by a TOTAL of just 5 points with one coming in OT against the Ravens. This is a revenge game for the Steelers after losing at Cleveland two weeks ago. Payback time here and I'll gladly grab the points with a team that is very tough to beat at home. 8* PITTSBURGH

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #413 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in SMU Mustangs vs Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - The Mustangs are 9-2 to the over this season. They have one of the best offenses in the nation but also one of the worst defenses in the nation! The Green Wave don't rank too far behind SMU in terms of strength on offense. That said, this game should be an absolute shootout. Southern Methodist will control the pace of this game on their home field and the Mustangs are the most up-tempo team in the nation as they are averaging 81 plays per game on offense this season. SMU is scoring an average of 49 points per game in home games this season! The Mustangs have allowed an average of 42 points per game their past 4 games as their defense has withered as the season has gone on. That is bad news for Southern Methodist University here as the Green Wave will take advantage of that staggering defense. Tulane has scored 31 points or more in 8 of their 11 games this season. The Green Wave, prior to facing some tougher D their past two games, had reached at least the 38 point mark 6 times in a 7-game stretch. They'll have no problems with the weak defense their facing today but Tulane can't stop teams either! They have allowed an average of 38 points per game their lat 4 road games. Shootout here! 10* OVER the total in SMU

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #373 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 3:30 ET - Penn State angry off their loss at Ohio State and, as a result of that plus playing at home in this one, the Nittany Lions won't take their foot off the gas in this game. As a 40 point favorites in this one it is not out of the question for PSU to get this game over the total all by themselves. However, note that Penn State has allowed at least 7 points in all but 1 of their 11 games this season. If Rutgers scores at least 7 and the odds makers are correct about 40 as the point spread, you're looking at a 47-7 type game which gets over the total. While that is re-assuring I actually am expecting the Scarlet Knights to do even better here and, again, Penn State will not take their foot off the gas. Rutgers is off a shutout loss to Michigan State but scored 21 in their prior game and that was against Ohio State. Prior to the shutout loss to the Spartans, Rutgers had scored an average of 25 points per game in their 3 prior games. Look for the Nittany Lions to pour it on as this game goes on and it soars past the number as a result. 8* OVER the total in Penn State

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #371 Saturday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 3:30 ET - Minnesota is ranked higher than the Badgers and plus they have home field for this game and yet Wisconsin is favored. Must be some type of egregious mistake by the odds makers, right? You guys know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" in the marketplace. The fact is that Wisconsin is the better team and they will win the Big Ten West by getting revenge in this game for last year's loss to the Golden Gophers. Keep in mind the Badgers had beaten Minny 14 times in a row prior to last year's loss. Wisconsin has played the much tougher schedule this season and the odds makers recognize that and it is factored into this line but the betting markets are a little behind the power curve here and don't really realize that. The result is value for us here especially with the weather conditions likely limiting the only edge (passing game) that the Golden Gophers might have had in this game. The only tough win that Minnesota has is over Penn State and the Nittany Lions are proving that they are a bit over-rated. The Gophers lost to Iowa in their only other real challenge this season. As for the Badgers, they've had to battle with Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa this season. Plus they blasted Michigan State 38-0 and the Spartans are better than their record would indicate. Though the Badgers, like everyone else, lost to Ohio State this season they beat Iowa plus crushed the Wolverines too. Wisconsin is the more battle-tested team coming into this game and they are favored with good reason. The only reason the Badgers lost last season was a 4-0 turnover deficit. The year before, at Minnesota, Wisconsin won 31-0 and held the Golden Gophers to 133 yards of offense. Minny is a better team than they use to be but they are vastly over-rated this season and the weather also will be factor in this game that favors the Badgers who will pound the Gophers defsne on the ground all game long. I like the Badgers to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 10* WISCONSIN

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #353 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Syracuse Orange @ 12:30 ET - Wake Forest was favored by nearly a TD earlier in the week and now is down to nearly a FG favorite as of game day. I am fading the move here and grabbing the Demon Deacons. The Orange are reduced to playing for pride as they are just 4-7 on the season. Wake Forest is 8-3 on the year and they were much more dominant against Duke last week then the final score indicates. That is leading to line value here and another key is that the Demon Deacons are playing with revenge from a loss to Syracuse last season. The Orange are just 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and the Demon Deacons are not only the better defense but also the much better offense in this match-up. 8* WAKE FOREST

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #335 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in TCU Horned Frogs vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 4:15 ET - The Horned Frogs need this win for bowl eligibility and they do tend to play much better (and score more) when at home. However, TCU will have their hands full here with a scrappy West Virginia team that continues to play hard for head coach Brown. The Mountaineers saw Doege, in his 2nd start at QB, throw for over 300 yards in last week's loss. I look for another solid game from the West Virginia QB and we've got a very low total to work with here. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers are allowing 30 points per game on the road this season. The Horned Frogs are off a low-scoring loss but they were very fortunate as they did allow over 500 yards to Oklahoma in that game. TCU is allowing an average of 32 points per game over its past 7 games. I understand when looking at the recent offensive numbers this total "has" to be set low by the odds makers but the fact is each defense has shown periods of weakness for sure. Couple that with TCU generally scoring well at home and the Mountaineers getting a bit of a boost with Doege at QB and you have the set up for some solid scoring in this game. Texas Christian has averaged 37 points per game their past 5 games. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 in TCU's last 5 home games. Yes, I know their most recent over at home was very unlikely and was due to triple-OT against Baylor but the Mountaineers D is nothing like the Bears D. Even subtracting out the points from that game in the averages above, we still have big numbers in those above averages. Plenty of points expected here and I am taking advantage of low total. 10* OVER the total in TCU

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (-) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 2:30 ET - The Hawkeyes have held their last two opponents to season lows in total points. Iowa is known for their defense and they are allowing only 115 yards on the ground per game this season. However, they are not completely inept on offense either. They didn't have the points to show it for last week against Illinois but note that QB Stanley had over 300 passing yards in that game. The Hawkeyes won't make the same mistake they made against the Huskers last season. It ended up being a 3-point win for Iowa because they allowed the Cornhuskers to rally from 15 points down to tie the game with only a few minutes left before Iowa then kicked the game-winning field goal. Nebraska is off a huge win but it came against a horrible Maryland team. Lets not forget the Huskers are on a 2-9 ATS run and also have covered just ONCE the last EIGHT times they have been a home dog. Facing the Cornhuskers at Nebraska is not what it once was in terms of being difficult on a visitor. By the way, the Hawkeyes are 18-3 ATS their last 21 games as a road favorite. Look for the visitor to improve to 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. In terms of SU winner, Iowa has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. Nebraska has not beaten a good team all season. They have 5 wins and 4 came against teams with a combined record of 10-34. The other win came against a 6-5 Illinois team that is vastly over-rated and extremely fortunate to have 6 wins. Now facing an 8-3 Iowa team whose 3 losses came by a total of 14 points (against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin), the Huskers will prove to be out-classed here. Nebraska has 5 losses including 3 by a total of 84 points (!) to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Minnesota. The Golden Gophers team that beat the Cornhuskers by 27 points is the same Minnesota team that Iowa beat a few weeks ago. Big difference right now in the level of these programs right now, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. 10* IOWA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #311 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - The Rebels had a bye last week and the Bulldogs had what was nearly like a bye as they faced an out-classed Abilene Christian team. Mississippi State scored 45 points in that game and will use that as a momentum booster heading into this big rivalry game. The Bulldogs were held to just 7 points the week before but that was against Alabama. Prior to hat game Mississippi State averaged 42 points per game in match-ups with Arkansas and Texas A & M. The point is that the Bulldogs can (and will) score big here but I also look for them to struggle to stop this potent Rebels offense. The Mississippi State defense has allowed 37 points per game in the Bulldogs last 4 games against FBS foes. Ole Miss comes into this game having averaged 39 points their past two games. The Rebels pace on offense ranks them in the top 20 in the nation. The total on this game was in the 60 range but has now dropped to 57.5 and I like the value with the over in this one. The Rebels are seeking revenge after getting blasted 35 to 3 last season. The two prior seasons the meetings between these rivals averaged 67 points. Ole Miss, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, has seen the over go 7-1 the last 8! The over is 3-1 this season in Bulldogs games when they are off a SU win. 10* OVER the total in Mississippi State

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #307 Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Bills are 8-3 this season and their defense has been great. All the pressure is on the Cowboys in this one. Keep in mind the Patriots, as usual, have a stranglehold on the top of the AFC East division but the Bills are in great shape in terms of a Wild Card spot because every other Wild Card contender has 5 losses already. As for the Cowboys, the only way to make the playoffs (most likely) is by winning the division and Dallas has the Eagles just one game in back of them even though Philadelphia is dealing with a ton of injuries and seemingly trying to hand the division to Dallas. The Cowboys simply haven't taken advantage of the situation and coach Jason Garrett is on the hot seat. Again, all the pressure here is on Dallas to perform at home and I love the Bills here as a big underdog after their dominating effort on defense versus Denver. Buffalo has just 3 losses this season and 2 of those came by 6 or less points. The Cowboys have lost 5 of their past 8 games. Dallas certainly is familiar with playing on Thanksgiving Day but that hasn't helped their results at the betting window. The Cowboys are on a 1-7 ATS run in Thanksgiving games and the only cover was a fortunate one as they beat the Redskins by 8 last year as a 7.5 point favorite. They won't be so fortunate here. Dallas has failed to cover 2 of last 3 at home and the Bills are undefeated ATS in their 5 road games this season at 4-0-1 ATS. The Cowboys are 6-11 ATS against teams with a winning record including 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU!) this season! 10* BUFFALO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - With the Lions starting QB David Blough (undrafted rookie out of Purdue) at QB in this one, the markets have jumped all over the Bears. Certainly I understand that but this has gone too far. In typical contrarian fashion here I am going with the underdog that nobody wants. The Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards last week but lost due to a 4-2 turnover deficit last week. The Bears yardage edge (92) against the Giants was less than that of Detroit's edge but the markets aren't really looking at that. The markets also aren't looking at the fact that the Lions outgained Chicago by 131 yards in their prior meeting earlier this season even though they lost the game by 7 points. That game was less than 3 weeks ago and was a "phony final" as you can see by the yardage stats. The fact is that the Lions D has been solid in each of its last two road games but they did get embarrassed in their most recent home game. They'll want to make up for that here on Thanksgiving and I expect them to do just that. Let's not forget that the Bears are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and one of the victories was a 7 point win in the game they were outgained substantially by the Lions and the other was just a 5-point win over a bad Giants team last week. Look for Detroit, even with Blough at QB, to be in this one all the way. When Chicago enters a game after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, they have gone 2-5 ATS the last 7! The Lions are 8-3 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are facing a team with a losing record. 8* DETROIT

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #302 Tuesday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Zips showed last week at Miami (Ohio) that they weren't going to just lay down to end the season. It has been a miserable season for Akron and they entered that game 0-10 SU and ATS. However, as a massive underdog of 4 TDs the Zips hung tough with the RedHawks throughout that game and lost by just 3 points. Keep in mind that was on the road too and Miami has had a strong season. That is why I love taking Akron this week as a 4 TD underdog at home. Yes Ohio University needs to win this game for bowl eligibility but the Zips would love to spoil that for the Bobcats and avoid an 0-12 season in the process. While I don't see that happening, I do expect them to hang around in this game all the way through. Ohio U is off a dominating win at Bowling Green but they entered that game just 2-8 ATS this season. As bad as the Zips season has been they have had only one loss by more than 29 points in their past 10 games. Again, Akron would love to spoil the Bobcats bowl hopes and, while I don't see that happening here, I do expect them to hang within a couple scores throughout this game. The Zips are actually 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the last time they hosted Ohio U they won outright as a double digit dog! Last week's big Bobcats win was the first time this season they had won a game by a margin of more than 21 points. Also, Ohio U's first 4 wins this season came by an average margin of 10.5 points. This game will be much closer than many are expecting. 10* AKRON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - The odds makers were completely unaware that the Ravens have been playing better than the Rams this season so they set the odds at a pick'em in this one. I am kidding of course but you can see where I am going with this one. This game opened up with Baltimore as a picks and now the line is up to as high as a -4 as of very early game day morning even though this match-up is at Los Angeles. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the move here as I back LA in this one. The Rams strength on offense is the pass game and the Ravens weakness on defense is against the pass. Baltimore's strength on offense is the run game while the Rams strength on defense is against the run. Per the above and the fact I am getting more than a field goal with a quality home team, I like the dog in this one! The Rams have allowed just 11 points per game in their last 4 games while the Ravens have allowed 21 points per game in their last 4 road games. The Rams defense is not getting enough respect here and don't be surprised if their passing attack does some solid damage here on offense in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Niners are a little banged up and have covered just once in their last five games! Last week San Francisco was fortunate to even beat Arizona as the final margin of victory of 10 points was very deceiving. If anything that helped to give us some line value here because truly Green Bay has played the tougher schedule this season and also comes in rested off a bye week. They are also "out for blood" a bit in this road game. I say that because even though the Packers are off a home win, it was their most recent road effort that really had QB Aaron Rodgers fired up. That was also on the west coast and it was a 26-11 loss at Los Angeles at the hands of the Chargers. Rest assured Rodgers and the coaching staff have been reminding the team of that ugly road effort as they have now had two weeks to prepare for this game and they don't want to repeat that. The Packers were a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in road games this season before the debacle at LA. San Francisco is certainly a very strong team but they truly are a little over-rated and with the injuries they have and the fact that this situation sets up so well for the road dog, I am grabbing the points with Green Bay. The Packers have failed to cover just twice the last thirteen times they are off a bye week! San Francisco has just 6 ATS wins the last 21 times they have been a home favorite. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan is doing a great job here but note that he is 2-11 ATS when at home and off a game in which the 49ers scored 22 or more points. A lot of systems, angles, situational value all pointing the way of the road team in this one. 8* GREEN BAY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 4:05 ET - Jacksonville got blown out by 20 points last week but Nick Foles returned at QB and will be even sharper in his second game back. Tennessee is off a bye week but the Titans got a miracle comeback win over the Chiefs prior to the bye. This is the type of a situation where a team often struggles and Tennessee also has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 divisional games. The Jags come in fired up off an ugly loss and Jacksonville did have a bye the prior week so they are in pretty good shape here from a health standpoint. Tennessee is playing with revenge here from a loss at Jacksonville earlier this season when Minshew was at QB. However, this Titans defeat simply continued their recurring pattern of struggling in divisional games. Also, there is a reason Tennessee opened up as only 2.5 point favorites when lines first came out on this game. They since rose to as high as a 4 and I love fading the moves in situations just like this one. By the way, the Titans are 1-9 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a home game. Watch that big win over the Chiefs leave Tennessee a bit flat in this one and Foles and the Jaguars are coming off hungry after getting blasted at Indianapolis. Remember that is now back to back ugly defeats for Jacksonville (also lost in London two weeks ago) and the Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a loss that came by a double digit margin both SU and ATS. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #263 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Falcons are off B2B divisional wins at New Orleans and Carolina and they have another match-up with the first-place Saints in just a few days on Thanksgiving Day. Now, of course I realize this match-up is also a divisional game but the fact is that New Orleans is leading the division and I would not be surprised to see the Falcons defense have a bit of a letdown after their two preceding big road wins and plus having a huge game on deck. Also, just how good was the Atlanta defense last week? Yes they forced 4 turnovers but they entered that game having forced only 4 turnovers on the season. I am not yet fully sold on this Falcons defense and they did allow nearly 300 passing yards last week. Bucs QB Jameis Winston is off an ugly game and he is known for bouncing back after big INT games. He threw four in last week's loss and I expect him to respond here. The Buccaneers and Falcons are known for getting into shootouts. Last season each match-up totaled over 60 points and that makes it 5 of the last 6 meetings having totaled at least 54 points. More of the same here. The strength of each of these teams on offense is the passing game and both teams weakness on defense is against the pass. That said, and considering that Tampa Bay has allowed at least 27 points in 8 straight games, you can see why I like the over so much in this one. Also, this total dropped to as low as 51 after opening up as high as 54.5 when lines first game out. The Buccaneers have allowed 35 points per game their last 8 games and are about a 4 point dog here. A 35-31 Falcons win here sounds about right. This should fly over by double digits. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #185 Saturday 10* Top Play North Texas Mean Green (-) @ Rice Owls @ 3:30 ET - First off QB Mason Fine is probable for this game and of course that was an important aspect of this play. With Fine at the controls the Mean Green offense is tough to stop and I don't foresee the Owls being able to keep up in this one. North Texas is angry here as they have had time to work up plenty of energy for this one. The Mean Green got demolished 52-17 by Louisiana Tech before their bye week. Keep in mind, prior to this North Texas had averaged 37 points per game in their 6 prior games. Look for their offense to bounce back huge here and keep in mind they are facing a 1-win Rice team. In similar match-ups with struggling teams in CUSA, the Mean Green annihilated UTSA 45-3 and UTEP 52-26. I know the Owls have been more competitive this season but, again, they just don't match up well here because they don't have the offense to keep up. Rice is off a shocking upset win at Middle Tennessee but the Owls were outgained in that game and won thanks to turnovers. Rice still didn't get to the 400 yard mark on offense and they allowed more than 450 yards but won the game and the point is that the Owls 377 yards was a season high. So Rice had their best game on offense and yet still were fortunate to win. They won't be so fortunate here. North Texas has defeated the Owls in each of their last 3 meetings and all wins came by 7 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.7 points! The Mean Green are 8-2 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing a team with a losing record. When Rice is off a road game (in this case was massive upset too since they were a double digit dog) they have gone 4-12 ATS! 10* NORTH TEXAS

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #161 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Boston College Eagles @ 2:30 ET - It wasn't that long ago that Boston College was a defensive-minded grind it out type of team. A lot has changed with the Eagles this season however and that is why the over is 8-2 in their games and I am expecting another one here. BC, based on yardage stats this season, ranks nearly in the top ten in offense but also in the bottom five in defense! Keep in mind this is out of 130 teams in FBS! Notre Dame is averaging 36 points per game this season and should shred the Eagles defense here. However, even though the Fighting Irish certainly have a respectable defense, the Boston College offense has been great this season and I look for the Eagles to score much better than many are expecting here. The Irish are a 3 TD favorite in this one but BC is going to trade a few touchdowns with ND before the Fighting Irish eventually pull away. The result will be plenty of points! In the last 3 seasons combined, when the Eagles are off a tight loss of 7 points or less to a conference foe, the over is a perfect 5-0. They lost by 7 to Florida State two weeks ago and then enjoyed a bye week last week to get ready for this one. The Irish are off back to back blowout wins and have scored an average of 45 points per game in those two victories. The Fighting Irish also scored 49 points when these teams most recently met two years ago. If they get that here, which would not surprise me in the least, plus win the game by a 3 TD margin as per the odds makers, you're talking about a 49-28 type game! By the way, chilly weather in South Bend as you would expect but light winds and no precipitation. 10* OVER the total in Notre Dame

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ Noon ET - West Virginia is off an upset win at Kansas State but the Mountaineers were outgained by over 100 yards. That has set up nice line value to go against them in this spot. West Virginia entered last week's game against the Jayhawks having lost 5 straight games and a number of them were blowout losses. The Mountaineers average margin of defeat in those 5 losses was nearly 20 points. Oklahoma State enters this game having won 3 straight games and all 7 of their wins this season have come by 7 points or more. This one will too. The Cowboys are the better team and the much hotter team and they keep their momentum going here. While the defenses here rate about equal, the Cowboys rate a huge edge on offense and that will be the difference in this game. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #150 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Noon ET - Minnesota in a bad situation here for a myriad of reasons. They are suffering unbeaten letdown after their first loss of the season last week. So the Golden Gophers are off a huge game at Iowa and they also have another tough opponent, Wisconsin, on deck for their season finale at home next week. I could easily see the Gophers struggling a little mentally in this match-up with the Wildcats. Along the lines of struggling mentally, Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan is also questionable for this game after he got his bell rung late in the game against the Hawkeyes last week. The Wildcats have had an ugly season but a huge upset win over a ranked Gophers team would sure be  nice way for Northwestern to close out the home portion of their schedule this season. In their home finale, I look for the Cats to step up big and I expect them to lose this by no more than a single touchdown and we're getting a pair of touchdowns here thanks to the market move. Yes it was a very bad UMass team that the Wildcats faced last week but that is also the type of win that helps to build confidence. Off that blowout win and playing at home for the 3rd straight week and 5th time in 6 weeks, the Cats will be in this game all the way! 8* NORTHWESTERN 

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #144 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - Iowa has a fantastic defense but a pedestrian offense. That makes it seem tough to lay big points with the Hawkeyes in a spot like this. However, Illinois is ripe for a beatdown. They have had some unbelievable good fortunate in wins versus Wisconsin and at Michigan State and now reality will set in after a 4-game winning streak that included wins over Purdue (without QB) and Big Ten bottom-feeder Rutgers. Note that prior to this streak the Illini had allowed 34 points or more in 4 straight games and an average of 40 points per game during that 4-game losing streak. Even though they had the miracle win at Michigan State in their most recent game, they did allow 34 points to the Spartans. That holds significance here because the Spartans, like the Hawkeyes, are known for struggling on offense but, just like so many other teams have done, Michigan State got to 34 against the Illini. So, about that Iowa defense....they are allowing an average of only 12.4 points per game. Keep in mind that includes games against some top Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I feel the Illini won't even get to 10 points here but even if they do, don't be surprised if the Hawkeyes have one of their best games of the season on offense as they take advantage of facing weaker competition here. The Illini have been so fortunate of late they didn't need the bye week. That is actually going to kill the mojo they had going. Home team wins this one by at least 21 in my opinion. 8* IOWA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #113 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wyoming Cowboys vs Colorado State Rams @ 9:30 ET - Wyoming plays at a slow place and of course it will be cold in Laramie tonight. However, contrary to what you might expect, an over is in the offing here. The reason is that the Rams defense is a huge weakness. Certainly Colorado State should put up some points here but their not going to be able to stop the Cowboys offense. Look for Wyoming QB Vander Waal to bounce back after he threw 3 interceptions in last week's loss. Colorado State is allowing 33 points per game this season and they've allowed nearly 40 points per game in their 5 games played away from home this season! The Rams have played 10 games on the season and only one finished with less than a total of 51 points. The Cowboys are averaging 33 points per game at home this season and are 5-0 there. So Colorado State scores a fair amount here but their defense continues to let them down just like it did in the 2nd half of the loss versus Air Force last week when they gave up 28 points in the 2nd half! By the way, though it will be cold in Laramie this evening, the winds will be rather light and no precipitation expected. 10* OVER the total in Wyoming

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #109 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Injuries to the offense always tend to grab more attention for the public in comparison with injuries to the defense. That said, both these teams are quite banged up on the defensive side of the ball and I am looking for plenty of points in this one. The Texans have stayed under the total in 3 straight games but this is very surprising and it is a trend that will reverse because their offense ranks right around #7 this season but their defense ranks around #26 out of 32 teams. Houston lost at Indianapolis earlier this season and also got knocked out of the playoffs by Colts last season. The over is 30-17 when the Texans are playing with road loss revenge. The over is 38-21 when Indianapolis is off a home stretch of two straight games. They off a big home win versus Jacksonville and the Colts have scored 24 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Their game earlier this season versus Houston saw the teams combine for over 600 passing yards! The Texans are off a beatdown at Baltimore and have allowed 24 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Colts should get at least 24 here and so will the Texans as they bounce back in my opinion. That said, I am forecasting this game to get into the fifties. 10* OVER the total in Houston

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Thursday 10* Top Play NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 8 ET - The Wolfpack have struggled recently but their defense looks healthier now than it has in recent games and also it was their secondary that was injury riddled. That means they match-up better with a run-heavy team like Georgia Tech than they would against teams that like to air it out. That being said, I like this match-up for NC State. Yes both teams have had tough seasons but the Wolfpack actually outgained Louisville last week and were simply done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. As for Georgia Tech, they got smashed by Virginia Tech last week by a count of 45-0. The Yellow Jackets are getting outgained by nearly 165 yards per game in ACC action! The Wolfpack, on the other hand, actually have a positive yardage margin in ACC games this season! The road team has won 5 straight in this series and the Wolfpack need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. For the Yellow Jackets, their season is over and they certainly played like it last week too! More of the same expected here. 10* NC STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #106 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7:30 ET - Both teams off disappointing losses but Toledo now has to go on the road after battling all the way back from a 28-7 deficit at home against Northern Illinois only to lose on a late field goal. Though mathematically alive in the MAC West race, the Rockets know the reality is that the loss to the Huskies essentially squashed those dreams. This is a very young team too and they have struggled often when facing adversity. I expect that to be the case again here. As for the Bulls, they are off a crazy loss to Kent State where everything improbable actually happened in the Golden Flashes late comeback from a 27-6 deficit. Now with a well-coached Buffalo team at home off a loss and having the much better defense in this match-up in this one, I am look for the Bulls to win in a rout. Buffalo ranks 9th in the nation on defense while Toledo ranks 116th! Also, the Rockets are on an 0-5 ATS run overall. Toledo is also 0-4 ATS on the road this season. Buffalo opened the season with a non-covering win over an FCS school but, at home, in FBS action, the Bulls have been red hot ever since as they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a host against FBS schools this season. As you can see, triple perfect ATS support for backing the home team in this one. Lay the points with the host as they dominate this one with their strong pass-rushing ability on defense and their dynamic ground game on offense. The Bulls dictate the tempo in this one and control the clock in this game and win by double digits. 10* BUFFALO 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Huskies are off a 31-28 win at Toledo but Northern Illinois actually led that game huge before the Rockets rallied late. It was a tight win but the point is that had the Huskies been at home for that one I would have expected the blowout to go on for the full sixty minutes. Now here they are getting a rare home game as they have had a very home-heavy schedule thus far. Northern Illinois finishes the season with a pair of home games and I expect them to make the most of it. Eastern Michigan is off a huge win but it came against an Akron team that is the worst team out of all 130 teams in FBS! The Zips are simply dreadful this season. Prior to that win the Eagles had lost 4 of 5 games with the average margin of defeat being 16 points. These teams each struggle on offense but the Huskies are the better defense and have home field here and have won 11 straight games in this series. I look for the streak to reach a dozen games and I expect the victory margin to be double digits just as the Huskies two prior home wins were this season. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - This is a neutral site game as it is being played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. Considering the fact it is a neutral site and that Chiefs Andy Reid continues to be the worst late game manager in NFL history, I am happy to back the Chargers here. Kansas City lost at Tennessee last week partially because they have defensive breakdowns in critical moments but also because if Reid was smarter about play-calling to close out games the Titans would not have even had the ball to have a chance to win the game. Reid has had issues with this since his days in Philadelphia and that is part of the reason the Eagles finally won a Super Bowl AFTER he was shown the door! The point I am making here though is that it is hard to lay points with him unless it is a game that is destined to be an absolute blowout and I certainly don't see that being the case here. Everyone is on Kansas City here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side. Chargers QB Rivers is off a rare poor game and he'll be ready to bounce back here. At the same time, this is a Chiefs defense that gave up over 200 yards on the ground last week and that means LA can do some damage here on the ground which will further open up things for Rivers to attack downfield through the air. Under head coach Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 9-2 ATS when facing a team off an outright upset loss. That system is in play here as the Chiefs lost outright as a 6 point favorite over the Titans last week. We are getting close to the stretch run of the season and note the following stat when Kansas City is playing in games 9 through 12 of a season. When KC has a winning record and is favored over a team that is coming off an away game, the Chiefs have gone 1-8 ATS! Not only where the Chargers at Oakland last week, their game was on Thursday (while KC played on Sunday at Tennessee) so LA does have a rest edge for this game also. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Rams are off a loss but simply came out of their bye week with their timing off and they delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. From a yardage standpoint the teams were nearly even but Los Angeles was done in by turnovers. While LA was on the road last week, the Bears were at home and they got the win over the Lions. However, Chicago was outgained in that game and the Bears are simply not a very good football team right now. This week Chicago now goes on the road and I feel we've got great value here with the Rams at home. LA of course is much better than they showed last week plus they are at home and also playing this game with revenge from last year's last season loss that the Bears handed Los Angeles. That was just the 2nd loss of the Rams season last year and also came on Sunday night. LA, undoubtedly, has not forgotten and gets payback under the lights tonight. The Bears defense has not been as strong as it was last season, particularly against the pass. The strength of the Rams offense is the passing game. Good match-up for LA here in that regard. As for Chicago's offense, they rank among the worst in the league. Coming back to the Bears pass defense too, note that they allowed over 275 passing yards to a back-up QB in last week's fortunate win. In terms of system support here, Chicago entered this season on an 0-8 ATS run when on the road in a non-divisional game as a dog of 7 or less points facing a team that is off an upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here with the Rams off the loss as a 4-point fave at Pittsburgh last week. Including playoff games too, LA is on a 10-4 ATS run extending back to the final two games of last year's regular season. Once again, the Rams will bounce back with a cover after an ATS loss last week. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Both teams enter this week off a bye week last week. First off I am going to talk about the always good but always over-hyped Patriots. While it is true that New England blew out Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season lets talk about what has happened since then. The Patriots have played 8 games since then and 6 of them were wins by 14 points or more. The other two were games the Pats lost ATS. More on the latter in the moment but lets first talk about all those "tough" teams that New England faced in those 6 big wins. Here is their current record of each of the teams they faced week by week: 2-7, 2-7, 1-8, 2-8, 1-8, 3-6. Noticing a pattern here? The Pats took care of business a lot but they faced trash a lot! So how about those other two games? The Patriots barely got by the Bills and did NOT cover and then two weeks ago New England got absolutely dominated by the Ravens. Notice this pattern? When Mr Brady and Mr Belichick have to step up and face a formidable opponent things suddenly change. The Eagles beat a MUCH tougher Patriots team to win the Super Bowl in Feb of 2018 and so this Pats team is much more susceptible to what the Eagles bring to the table here and this game is NOT at a neutral site. The Philadelphia schedule has been much tougher than the Patriots schedule has been. The Eagles have faced 5 tough teams in their last 6 games and 4 of those teams have a combined record of 26-12 on the season! The Eagles run defense ranks among the best in the NFL and the Patriots, despite facing a mostly cupcake schedule, rank in the bottom 3rd of the NFL for running the ball. That said, when a team struggles to run the ball their offense of course becomes more predictable and you know The Linc is going to be rocking for this game and I expect the Philly defense to bring a huge game here. This is just the 2nd home game the Eagles have had in the past 6 weeks! Look for the Patriots to drop to 0-3 ATS on the season when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-1 SU at home this season and many will be looking for the Pats to bounce back here after that ugly loss at Baltimore two weeks ago. However, Philadelphia is off B2B wins and has moved back into a first-place tie in the NFC East so they are "feeling it" again and check out the following stat. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS when off a SU win and facing a non-divisional foe with a winning percentage of .667 or greater that is off a SU/ATS loss. That PERFECT system fits here. Also, under head coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 10-3 ATS when they enter a game with a winning record on the season and they are an underdog against a non-divisional foe. Also, under Pederson, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS when they enter a game off B2B SU/ATS wins. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philly is 10-2 ATS when off a SU/ATS win and facing a team that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. New England, in regular season games, is now on an 0-5 ATS streak when they are on the road and facing a team that has a .500 record or better. The Eagles should win this outright but I am happy to grab the points as added insurance here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Saturday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Lions back-up QB Driskel actually played quite well in last week's loss at Chicago. In fact, Detroit outgained Chicago significantly in the loss and Driskel threw for 269 yards. The Cowboys are also off a loss last week as they fell short against the Vikings. Dallas, of course, would love to right the ship on the road here but the Cowboys already have lost on the road to a team like the Jets. Also, when Dallas lost to the Saints in New Orleans earlier this season, NO wasn't playing that well at the times as they had just recently lost Brees to injury at that point. As you can see, I am not that impressed with a Dallas team that had a chance to get a stranglehold on the NFC East division but has proven time and time again that they are not ready to make the jump to being an elite team. Again, the Cowboys now face a road test in a game they are expected to win but we have seen how these have gone before. The line on this game opened at less than a TD but has now risen to as high as a 7.5 as of early gameday morning and let us not forget that Dallas also has a major road test with the 8-1 Patriots on deck. Certainly, the Cowboys could overlook a 3-5-1 Lions team. Solid system here favors the underdog as Detroit entered this season 11-1 ATS when facing a non-division opponent off an outright upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here as the Cowboys were favored by 3 over the Vikings last week but lost outright. Dallas is 1-2 both SU and ATS in their last 3 road games. Perhaps they do notch the SU win here but I fully expect it to be by 7 points or less if that is the case. That said, the Lions have a great shot at the outright upset here and, of course, an even greater shot at getting at least a cover. 8* DETROIT

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 7 ET - LSU is simply over-valued here and it is a great spot to fade them after their huge win at Alabama last week. Keep in mind, the Tigers were on the road at Vandy this season and were favored by 24 points in this game. In other words, this line today is basically saying that Ole Miss is just as bad of a team as 2-7 Vanderbilt and that couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, the Rebels beat the Commodores 31-7 earlier this season. I am confident that, especially because they are at home and especially because they catch LSU off such a huge win, Ole Miss is absolutely going to hang around in this game for all 4 quarters. Keep in mind, the Rebels ugliest loss this season was by 28 points and that was at Alabama. One could argue that means LSU should win this game by a similar margin of course. However, note that the Rebels other 5 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of just 7.4 points.  The loss to Alabama was the only time a game "got away" from Ole Miss. Since they are at home for this one, and catching LSU in a flat spot, look for this one to play out much differently than the one against the Crimson Tide did. The Tigers have failed to cover 10 of the last 12 times they were off an outright upset win on the road and that is the case here after LSU's win at Alabama as a dog last week. After starting the season 2-1, Mississippi has since gone 2-5. However, they are a viewing today's game as a huge opportunity to make some headlines for sure and note the following: Rebels, when entering a game after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, have gone 3-1 ATS and SU. Now of course an upset would be a reach here but I do expect the Rebels to lose this game by only 1 or two scores. They're highly motivated and hang tough in this one all the way. 10* OLE MISS

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #339 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Ball State Cardinals vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 3:30 ET - Why I am playing a MAC game on a Saturday with so many bigger games to choose from? Exactly! The fact is love this match-up up to feature plenty of points and we have decent weather (by mid-November standards) in Muncie, Indiana for this one. The over is 8-2 this season in Central Michgan's games. As for Ball State, they're scoring in the mid-30s this season but allowing about 30 points per game. The Chippewas struggled in only a few games this season on offense and two of those were because they faced Miami (of Florida NOT Ohio) and Wisconsin. When you take those two games out of the equation, the Chips have scored an average of 36 points per game! As for the Cardinals, they have been particularly potent in home games this season as they are averaging 40 points per game in contests played here at Scheumann Stadium. Ball State has allowed an average of 34.5 points per game in their past two games as their D is wearing down as the season goes on and Central Michigan allowed 43 points in their most recent road game. 8* OVER the total in Ball State

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #383 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Memphis Tigers @ 3:30 ET - Memphis has gone over the total in 7 of 9 games this season and the Tigers are certainly not showing any signs of slowing down. Memphis has scored an average of 48 points per game in their last 3 games. The Tigers D has allowed 44.5 points per game their past two games. Going further back and looking at road games only, Memphis has allowed an average of 35 points per game in its past 3 games away from home. Houston's defense has had its two best performances this season against over-matched teams. When the Cougars faced UConn and Prairie View they allowed just 17 points in each of those games. Take those two weak match-ups out of the equation and Houston has allowed an average of 37 points per game this season. The point is that these teams should each get to the 35 range if they had an "average" game today but there is plenty of reason to think it will not be an "average" game. The Tigers offense has been on absolute fire and the Cougars offense also has come on stronger their past two games as they were big double digit dogs in each game and yet still scored an average of 30 points per game. Memphis ranks in the top ten in the nation for offensive efficiency while the Houston defense ranks in the bottom ten in the nation for defensive efficiency. You can see why I am expecting the Tigers to score plenty in this one as it is a horrible match-up for the Houston D. However, don't be surprised if the Cougars (known for playing better at home) also match Memphis score for score for much of this game and that is why I am expecting this one to get into the 80 range in terms of points scored. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #387 Saturday 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ Noon ET - Last season Michigan State got rolled at home in this match-up in a non-covering loss. However, the Spartans entered that one on a 10-0 ATS run in this series. In 2 of the last 3 meetings prior to last season Michigan State pulled the outright upset. The Spartans are very angry here after their historic collapse at home last week. They had Illinois beat and done for the day until a late TD right at the end of the first half gave the Illini unexpected life. To that point Illinois had managed scoring only 3 points. It is not a valid excuse for the Spartans but it happened and the game played out completely different than it would have if that play had not happened. Momentum is huge in football and it completely skewed the results of that game last week and has led to line value here as everyone is now very anti-Spartan. The fact is that Michigan State is always up for this rivalry game and they'll be ready to go here and their defense, last week notwithstanding, is good enough to keep them in this game all the way. Michigan is off a bye week which followed a blowout win at Maryland. Huge edge for the Spartans here, right? Actually they got blasted at Wisconsin earlier this season and that was coming off a bye week. Now of the course I am not saying the Spartans are the Badgers and also Big Blue is at home for this game but what I am saying is this...that ugly loss in Madison dropped the Wolverines to 1-7 ATS when coming off a bye week. I expect the Wolverines to find a way to win this game but I expect Michigan wins it by just a single score. 8* MICHIGAN STATE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #315 Friday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) @ Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Lets talk about injuries and suspensions first because that is a key reason that this line has been driven from -2 to a -6.5 as of early game day morning. First off the Bulldogs are without a safety (James Jackson) but the Thundering Herd are without one (Brandon Drayton) too. As for the WR spot, yes I know that Adrian Hardy is Louisiana Tech's "big name" guy and he is suspended for this game but when you look at the Bulldogs statistically, they have a group of wide receivers all in the same range of total yards as Hardy PLUS with a lot more touchdowns too. Hardy is not as big of a loss as people think and, keep in mind, Marshall lost their starting slot wide receiver, Artie Henry, early in the season. So the big glaring one, and main driver of this line, is the suspension of QB J'Mar Smith for La Tech. I am here to tell you that the Bulldogs have capable back-ups and the right guy, even if it is more than one QB that sees action here, will be who gets the majority of playing time here and they are NOT going up against some elite defense either. Louisiana Tech has been fantastic this season and a lot of it has to do with their system on offense. In other words, others can step in and have better functionality with the offense than you would think. The Bulldogs are having a great season that side of the ball and their defense is roughly equal with that of the Thundering Herd. That said, I have no hesitation in going contrarian here and backing the big dog and fading the masses! The Bulldogs are averaging a dozen points more per game than Marshall this season. I am aware that La Tech has faced a weak schedule this season but the Thundering Herd haven't exactly faced a powerhouse docket this season either. Also, the Bulldogs have covered 15 of last 20 as a road dog while the Thundering Herd have covered just 5 of their last 21 when favored in a Conference USA clash. 10* LOUISIANA TECH

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #309 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - The Browns allowed just 16 points in last week's tight win over Buffalo. However, Cleveland entered that game having allowed 24 points or more in 5 straight games. The Steelers allowed just 12 points in their big win versus the Rams last week but they have allowed an average of 25 points per game in their 3 road games this season. Certainly they have a respectable defense but it will be tested more over the stretch run of the season as this begins a stretch of 5 road games out of their final 7 games of the season. Pittsburgh has been fortunate to have a home-heavy schedule thus far this season. Cleveland's last 5 divisional games have seen 4 of the 5 go over the total. Also, in terms of meetings between the Browns and Steelers, 4 of the last 5 have gone over the total. Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 317 passing yards per game in road games this season! Cleveland allowed 32 points per game at home this season before holding the Bills in check but Buffalo did have success through the air against them and that is not a big surprise as the Browns are allowing 254 passing yards per game at home this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #312 Thursday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The markets are all over Buffalo here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Kent State. Yes the Bulls have won 3 straight games and the Golden Flashes have lost 3 straight games. However, Kent State just was on the road at Toledo a little over a week ago and they took the Rockets to the wire and they were a 7 point dog in that game. There is not a huge difference between Toledo and Buffalo in terms of their level of play within the MAC and the Golden Flashes lost by just two points to the Rockets. Yet now, after this line opened up at a 3, it has been driven all the way up to a 6 even though Kent State is at home for this one and playing with revenge from an embarrassing loss to the Bulls last season. Also, this is just the 2nd home game for the Golden Flashes since late September. They're going to want to make the most of this! That said, Kent State is going to fight all the way to the final gun in this one. The Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by an average margin of just 5 points per game. They have been "right there" in each game and this time I see them getting over the hump and getting the win. Kent State is a much more competitive team than they've been in the past and yet the still carry that "negative perception" with the marketplace from years of ugliness. They will fight tooth and nail in this game and an outright upset would not surprise but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Note that Bulls are off a big road win that preceded their bye week and they also had a big road win against a dreadful Akron team. However, prior to that they started the season 0-3 on the road with all 3 losses by a double digit margin. The Golden Flashes are in this one all the way. 10* KENT STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #307 Wednesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) @ Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian when it comes to handicapping games. That said, why in the world would a 6-3 Toledo be such a small favorite at home against a 3-6 Northern Illinois team? Exactly! Give me the underdog Huskies here while most of the world will likely be jumping on the Rockets! Now, I am never a contrarian without some reasoning of course and Northern Illinois does need to win out to be bowl eligible. They still have that going for them and, in the process, they'd love to hurt Toledo's chances of winning the MAC West. From a statistical standpoint the Rockets certainly have the better defense but note that defense tends to win football games this time of year and the Huskies have the much better defense. Based on yardage allowed Toledo ranks #117 out 130 teams while Northern Illinois ranks a much stronger 51st on defense. The Huskies have won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these teams and I expect another victory here on the road and will grab the couple points being offered. We might start to see some +3 on this one but I am happy enough already at the +2.5 that is prevalent right now. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6:30 ET - With Ohio U having home field it is is not a huge surprise that the betting markets have flipped the favorite on this one. Western Michigan opened up as the favorite in this one and now they are the dog. I love fading this type of a line move and especially when I have a strong situation favoring our side that many might be overlooking. The Bobcats didn't just beat the Broncos last season...they blasted them. Ohio U won that game 59-14 despite having a yardage edge of only 150 yards. What happened was a turnover-filled first half for Western Michigan that led to a 45-0 deficit. Now it is payback time here and, keep in mind, that ugly loss featured the Broncos as the host. That said, they would love nothing more than to return the favor tonight by rolling the Bobcats at Athens, OH with the ESPN2 cameras rolling for this Tuesday night match-up. Statistically the Broncos are the better team on both sides of the ball and, though 0-4 SU and ATS on the season in road games, do you think the odds makers were unaware of that when they made them the favorite here! Don't be fooled by the line move here, the road team gets it done as the Bobcats drop to 2-8 ATS on the season with another loss here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Monday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks SU record in primetime games under Pete Carroll is an incredible 27-5 with one tie. They have also won 80% of their Monday night games with Carroll as they've been victorious in eight of ten. Of course it looks enticing to back the undefeated 49ers and lay less than a TD but in typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing the points here. I feel Seattle has a great shot at the upset here and that means great value in this one. Though the Seahawks kicker has been less than stellar this season, note that the San Francisco kicking situation could be even worse off here as they have injury concerns. In a game projected to be a rather tight back and forth divisional battle, don't be surprised if the kicking game plays a role here and Seattle actually holds the edge here based on the Robbie Gould injury situation as he has been downgraded to doubtful for this one. Keep in mind, other than the Niners huge win over the Panthers two weeks ago, their other 3 games since mid-October have seen them score an average of just 19 points per game. San Francisco is 6-13 ATS as a home favorite while the Seahawks enter this game having covered 5 in a row as a divisional road dog! In fact, Seattle enters this game with a perfect 4-0 SU record on the road this season too! The Seahawks are scoring an average of 28.5 points per game away from home this season. Seattle's D had a poor game last week but clearly they were looking ahead to this game. Also, the Seahawks strength on D is their rushing defense and the Niners strength on offense is the ground game so this one sets up well for the Seattle D to have a bounce back game in a key divisional showdown. The Seahawks can move within a half game of the division lead by winning this game and they have a bye on deck so they're definitely going the full sixty in this game. Great underdog value in this one. 10* SEATTLE 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Nice set up here for a defensive-minded road dog. The Vikings are off a tough loss at Kansas City as they lost on a 44 yard field goal as time expired. Minnesota is on regular rest here while the Cowboys are on short rest. Even though Dallas is at home for this one, keep in mind they were in East Rutherford, NJ on Monday night taking on the Giants. That was not only a divisional win for the Cowboys, it also was more of a hard fought win than what the final score would indicate as it was a 1-point game heading to the 4th quarter. One thing I like about fading Dallas here is that they have truly struggled outside the division against better teams. Keep in mind the only two times they've really been tested in a non-divisional game this season they lost at New Orleans and then followed that up by losing at home to the Packers. In terms of some ATS support here. Dallas, is 2-7 ATS in their first game after facing the Giants. Also, the Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when off a Monday night game. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when they are favored off a divisional game and facing a team with a winning record. The Cowboys beat MIke Zimmer and his Vikings in Minnesota in 2016 in their most recent meeting. In games 9 through 12 of a season, when the Vikings are off a SU loss and playing with revenge they are 10-2 ATS! Entering this season the Vikings under Mike Zimmer were also 11-2 ATS when facing an opponent off a double digit ATS cover. Before their tight loss at KC last week, the Vikes had won 4 straight games all by double digits! 8* MINNESOTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #270 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Great spot for a home dog here. So far the teams that have played in London this season, entering this week, have gone 0-4 ATS. Yes, even though those teams get a bye week after the trip to London it still seems to take a lot out of them. Not only have they gone 0-4 ATS they have also gone 0-4 SU with the average margin of defeat being 18 points! Now I am not saying that the Steelers are going to steamroll the Rams just because of those numbers but what I am saying is that Pittsburgh is going to be a very tough home dog in this spot and I expect the Rams to be less than 100% here just like the Bears, Raiders, Buccaneers and Panthers were after their bye week that followed their London trips. The Steelers have plenty of momentum here as they have won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. In fact, since a season opening loss to the Patriots, Pittsburgh has not been blown out in any of their games. After the embarrassing loss at New England, the Steelers have gone 4-3 and the 3 losses have come by an average of 3 points with no margin of defeat more than 4 points. You can see why I am liking the points here! Also, Los Angeles enters this game off back to back blowout wins but those victories came against Atlanta and Cincinnati. Those two teams have a combined ONE win between them this season. That is note worthy here because, prior to that, the Rams had lost 3 straight games (2 of the games against tougher competition) and Pittsburgh is certainly no slouch.  The Steelers have covered 14 of last 18 as a home dog and 5 of last 6 in non-conference games. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #263 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers @ 4:25 ET - The Packers are off a disappointing road loss at Los Angeles against the Chargers. However, Green Bay is now back at home and has a bye week on deck. To say the Packers are going to go "all out" here doesn't even fully describe just how strong of a performance I am expecting from the GB offense in this one. That coupled with the fact that their defense ranks among the worst in the NFL is why I am backing the over big in this one. The over is 12-2 the last 14 times the Packers have hosted an NFC South team. Also, Carolina allowed only 20 points at home last week but they were fortunate as the Panthers gave up 431 yards in that game but benefited from 3 turnovers. Carolina gave up over 300 yards passing that game and their run defense is among the worst in the NFL. For that matter, so too is the Packers. So if both defenses have to respect the run here that, in turn, opens up great opportunities in the passing game. The Panthers offense has been resurgent under QB Kyle Allen since he took for Cam Newton. Of course Aaron Rodgers has been huge again for the Packers this season. Of course is it mid-November and it is Wisconsin so the weather is going to be cold this afternoon but it will not be brutal. Also, no precipitation expected and winds in the 10 to 15 mph range means weather should not have an impact on this game. Another strong O/U stat in addition to the 12-2 mentioned above is that Carolina is 13-1 to the over when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage of .651 or greater. Combined edge of 25-3 here in terms of systems favoring the over and I will take it as I expect both teams to struggle to get stops in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #252 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Mahomes is back this week at QB for the Chiefs but, undoubtedly, there will be some rust. Also, a start on the road at Tennessee is not exactly the top choice a QB would have either. The Titans defense is certainly a respectable one and the entire team is coming into this one with their ears pinned back. Tennessee is off a 10-point loss at Carolina last week despite the fact they outgained the Panthers by 61 yards. Kansas City is off a home win versus the Vikings that came on a game-winning 44-yard field goal. It was a hard-fought win, to say the least, and now the Chiefs are on the road this week. We have reached the 2nd half of the season and in games 9 through 12 of a season, when KC has a winning record and is favored against an opponent that is coming off a road game, the Chiefs have gone 1-7 ATS! The Titans, when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .601 or greater that is off an ATS win, have gone 8-1 ATS! Motivation off a loss, home field, and the Titans are catching a rusty Mahomes at QB as he will be adjusting after all that time off. 8* TENNESSEE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #137 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 3:30 ET - QB Jamie Newman returned for Wake Forest last week. He had missed the Florida State game with an injury. It is no coincidence that the game against the Seminoles ended up being the lowest scoring output (22) for the Demon Deacons this season. With Newman under center Wake Forest has averaged 40 points per game in his 7 games. That is the key edge here is that the Demon Deacons simply have too much offense for Virginia Tech to be able to keep up here. The Hokies beat the Hurricanes 42-35 earlier this season but they were outgained by over 200 yards in that game. It was a deceiving final score and they only gained 337 yards in that game! 42 points on 337 yards yes you can see just how deceiving that game was! The point is that the only other "big" games that Virginia Tech had on offense were against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. Note they only scored 31 points in regulation of their 6 OT win over UNC. So taking away the crazy Hurricanes game and games against an FCS school (RI) and a bad (1-8) Old Dominion team, let's look at what Virginia Tech has averaged in terms of points scored in regulation of their other 5 games...22.6 points per game. You can see why I am expecting the Hokies to be unable to keep up here. Demon Deacons in a road rout. 8* WAKE FOREST

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #175 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ 3:30 ET - I used UAB last week and they got embarrassed at Tennessee but it was a deceiving final score. The Blazers were only outgained by 65 yards but they lost 30-7 because they were done in by turnovers. The point is that UAB was hardly outgained by an SEC team on the road last week and yet now they're getting more than a TD back in action against a CUSA team. While the Golden Eagles do rank an edge here, albeit slight, in terms of offense note that the defensive edge lies with the Blazers in a big way. Southern Miss has allowed nearly 30 points per game this season while UAB ranks 5th in the nation in defense based on yardage allowed. Look for the Eagles to get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves. They got a big win against a win-less Rice team two weeks ago and then had a bye week last week. Before the big win over the Owls, Southern Miss had allowed an average of 35.7 points per game in their 6 preceding games. The better defense gives the Blazers a great shot at the upset here and certainly the points are a high value play the way I am forecasting this one! Blazers are ticked off after that loss to the Volunteers followed their bye week. 8* UAB

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Troy Trojans (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 3:30 ET - Great spot for a home dog. The Eagles were on the road last week and got the upset win at previously undefeated Appalachian State. Watch Georgia Southern now come out very flat this week after that huge upset in a weeknight televised game over a team that was 7-0. Certainly the Eagles deserve credit for pulling off the upset but the Mountaineers had 23 first downs compared to just 15 for Georgia Southern. Prior to that victory the Eagles only had one big win this season (41-7) but that came against a horrible New Mexico State team. Their other 3 wins came against Maine (an FCS school) by just a single score and South Alabama (2 OT) and Coastal Carolina (3 OT). In fact 3 of the Eagles last 4 wins have been by just 3 points so you can see why I like having the +3 on our side in this one. Troy is angry after a 1 point loss at Coastal Carolina that dropped them to a surprising 3-5 on the season. I like taking undervalued teams that are due to step up late in the season. The Trojans are off back to back road losses but this is a team that has scored 37 points or more in all 4 of its home games! While the Eagles have the better D, the Trojans are the much better O plus have home field here. Considering all that as well as the situational edge, there was no doubt for me here in terms of backing the home dog. 8* TROY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET - This is a game I had my eyes on since two weeks ago when the Spartans got hammered by 3 touchdowns at home against Penn State. Keep in mind, that is the only game that Michigan State has played since October 12th. Now, 4 weeks later, they are finally playing again as they have had two bye weeks in the past three weeks. This is exactly what the Spartans have needed as they most certainly have fresh legs here and they are ready to take out the frustration of three straight losses on what will prove to be an out-classed foe. Note that the Spartans lost to a "Murderers Row" of opponents as their last 3 games have come against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Now they face an Illinois team that is coming into this game over-valued. Lovie Smith is a weakness at head coach and they don't have the talent level (not even close) to match up with the big boys in the Big Ten. Yes, I know the Illini managed that miracle upset over the Badgers a few weeks back but upsets can and do happen. What matters most is the long-term results and the situational spots. That said, I expect the Spartans to destroy Illinois here and give them a dose of reality. The Illini come into this game with a 5-4 record but their other 4 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-29. Keep in mind the Spartans last 3 losses have come against teams with a combined record of 22-2 and the Badgers are probably the best 2-loss team in the nation by the way. That said, the rout is on here. With this line coming back to 14, after having risen above that, it is "go time" for me with a big play on the home team in this one! 10* MICHIGAN STATE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #123 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Virginia Mountaineers vs Texas Red Raiders @ Noon ET - From a statistical standpoint comparing yardage stats to points stats, the Red Raiders offense is even better than their points scored would lead you to believe and their defense is even worse than their points allowed would lead you to believe. On offense Texas Tech ranks in the top 20 for yardage gained and on defense they rank in the bottom 15 for yardage allowed. This leads to value in a spot like this because over the last few games of the season stats like this start to come back to where they should be and I expect a ton of points in this game as a result. The weather is good and the line move is on our side because this one came down from above 60 to settle into the 58.5 range as of early gameday morning. West Virginia is also poor on the defensive side of the ball and they'll struggle to stop the Red Raiders here but what I like about the Mountaineers in this spot in terms of their offense is they are back at home and coming off a tough performance last week because they were on the road and facing a tough Baylor defense. The Bears defense is worlds better than the Texas Tech defense and that will end up being reflected in a huge way in terms of how this game plays out. 10* OVER the total in West Virginia

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #113 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs UCF Knights @ 7 ET - Both these teams like to play fast as they each rank in the top 11 for pace on offense this season. Also, the Knights offense ranks 6th in the nation for efficiency on offense as they pick up big yardage consistently. While the UCF defense also ranks solid for efficiency they have not been as strong on the road on this season and the Golden Hurricane offense at home should score plenty in this one. Yes it is a big total but the weather is going to be ideal for an over this evening in Tulsa. Autumn temperatures, light winds, clear skies combine to allow both teams to be able to have huge days on offense. The UCF offense is averaging 46 points per game this season. If they just hit their average here and the odds makers are right about the Knights being a 17 point favorite, then that would put this game at 46-29 and into the mid-70s. Also, Tulsa's offense may surprise tonight. Their yardage stats are better than their scoreboard stats this season on offense so we're getting a little extra value as a result. The Golden Hurricane scored 41 points in their most recent home game but their defense has allowed 40 points or more in 3 of its last 4 home games. The Knights defense started the season great in their first two games but have allowed 27 points per game game in their last 7 games. In other words, don't be surprised if Tulsa gets close to 30 here and UCF is close to 50 and I am looking for this one to get near or even above 80 in an absolute track meet up and down the field! The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 to the over in their past 5 games. The Knights are 6-1 to the over in their past 7 games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #107 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) @ Oakland Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Chargers have won 4 straight meetings with the Raiders and the last 3 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 16.7 points. The strength of the Los Angeles offense is the passing game and the weakness of the Raiders defense is defending the pass. This is not a good match-up for Oakland as a result and they continue to be banged up along the offensive line too. The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and they were at home last week against Green Bay so this is not a bad trouble situation for LA considering they are just heading up the coast in California for this one. The Raiders have the worst pass defense in this league and their passing attack on offense ranks just "middle of the pack" on the season. The Raiders are the better team on the ground but in the pass-happy NFL, it is often the aerial attack that keys victories. The Chargers pass defense ranks 5th in the league and their pass offense ranks 6th in the league. The Raiders are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 divisional games and this line is right around a pick'em. In other words, the SU winner is likely the ATS winner as well! Oakland is off a big win (and cover) versus Detroit last week and that is noteworthy here in this AFC West match-up. In a divisional game the Raiders are 0-12 ATS when they are off a SU/ATS win and facing an opponent that is off a non-divisional game. That system fits here as the Chargers hosted Green Bay last week. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 1-8 ATS when off a SU win and facing an opponent that is off an ATS cover by double digits. LA absolutely rolled the Packers last week! Look for the Chargers to improve to 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Total Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Thursday OVER the total in South Florida Bulls vs Temple Owls @ 8 ET - This total has dropped from the mid-50s range down into the upper 40s and I am grabbing the great value we're getting in this spot. South Florida started the season slow but they have since turned it around. They have had only one ugly performance on the scoreboard (at Navy) in their last 6 games. In the other 5 games the Bulls have scored an average of 39.2 points per game! In their 3 home games since getting shutout at home by the dominating defense of Wisconsin, USF has averaged 34.3 points per game. Temple's defense is really down this season and this has been particularly true as the season has gone as they seem to be getting worn down. The Owls have allowed 45.3 points per game their last 3 games! They have not traveled well this season as Temple's D has allowed an average of 33.3 points per game in their 3 road games. I see this game easily getting into the 50s and likely into the 60s. I know USF is one of the slower paced offenses in the nation but Temple really pushes the pace as their 77 play average per game on offense ranks them 7th in the nation! The Owls will push the tempo here but the Bulls offense is likely in for a huge day of big plays against a Temple D that has proven susceptible to the big play time and time again. So even if USF plays their typical slower pace, there will still be plenty of points and this total has been pushed far too low in my opinion. Arguably it should have been moving the other way from its opener! Note that the Bulls defense is nothing special and has allowed an average of about 30 points per game its last 5 games. 10* OVER the total in South Florida

Total Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #106 Wednesday 8* UNDER the total in Ohio University Bobcats vs Miami-Ohio RedHawks @ 8 ET - Recent meetings between these teams have been rather high-scoring, though last season's stayed just under the total but did amass 58 points (which is higher than the posted total on this season's match-up). Even though we've seen quite a few points in recent meetings between these teams (73 in 2017 meeting), I like the under in this rivalry match-up. This one carries extra meaning because each team is 3-1 in conference action and battling it out in the MAC-East. These teams both rank in the bottom 20 in the nation when it comes to offensive snaps per game. That said, the pace definitely favors us here. In Bobcats weakness is their defense but the RedHawks offense ranks as one of the worst in the nation. As for the Ohio University offense, they a decent team on that side of the ball but they also are very run-heavy and that favors unders as it keeps the clock moving. Taking a look at their last 4 games, the Bobcats had one game where their run plays and pass play calls were nearly equal. However, in the other 3 games Ohio U ran the ball 149 times and threw it only 63 times. Also, the Miami-Ohio defense is better than what the points allowed would you lead to believe. They actually rank in the middle of the pack on defense based on yardage allowed this season as Miami-OH allows 395 per game. Keep in mind that includes tough match-ups where they were out-classed by Ohio State and Iowa. In fact, in MAC games the RedHawks are allowing just 348.5 yards per game. Ohio U's defense has not been as good BUT they now face one of the worst offenses in the nation and they are at home in their biggest rivalry game of the season and seeking revenge for last year's loss. Don't be surprised if this is a pure "grudge match" that lands with a point total in the 40s or possibly even in the 30s Wednesday. 8* UNDER the total in Ohio

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toledo Rockets vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 7 ET - This game has what I would term "hidden value" in my opinion when it comes to the total. First off, by November standards, we will have pretty decent weather in Toledo, OH this evening. Clear skies, chilly but not brutal temperatures, and winds tailing off to around 10 mph since this is an evening game. The value I like here is that, even though Kent State's offensive numbers are not good this season, they will be taking advantage of a bad Toledo defense. For certain, the Rockets respectable offense can do plenty of damage against a bad Golden Flashes defense too. Now, about that value. There are 130 FBS teams in football and though Kent State ranks close to #90 in points allowed, they are closer to #120 in yardage allowed. As for the Rockets, they are right around #70 on offense and defense when it comes to points. But looking at yardage, the Toledo offense actually ranks closer to #30 and their defense ranks closer to #120! Now you see the value as the points in Rockets games haven't been commensurate with the yardage stats in Rockets games...and it hasn't even been that close honestly. That is why this game has a total closer to 60 than 70 even though this game has a great chance of finishing in the 70s for points! The Rockets have allowed an average of 32 points per game in their 7 games against FBS schools this season and, again, that average should be even higher when you consider their yardage allowed. Kent State has had one strong defensive performance in their 7 games against FBS foes this season. In the other 6 games, the Golden Flashes have allowed 37 points per game. 10* OVER the total in Toledo

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Giants are having a tough season but, keep in mind, they made the switch to Daniel Jones at QB in Week 3. Even though they are only 2-4 since then, two of the four losses came by 6 or less points. In other words, getting the +7 they are being offered at it in this Monday night game would have resulted in a 4-2 ATS record the past 6 games. Also, one of the only two blowout losses the Giants have had the past six weeks was to the Patriots and the Cowboys are certainly not at New England's level. Yes, Dallas is off a huge blowout win over the Eagles but lets not forget Dallas lost 3 straight games prior to that both ATS and SU! The Giants have covered 4 of their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys, when off a home blowout win by a margin of 21 points or more, have gone 11-24 ATS! New York is 8-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The Giants, after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games, are a perfect 5-0 ATS. The Cowboys have swept New York each of the past two seasons and, having already beaten the Giants earlier this season, you know the home team is going to be fired up for the division leaders and will do everything they can to avoid a 3rd straight season sweep at the hands of Dallas. Give me the hungry home dog in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - As everyone knows, a perfect season is very hard to attain! That said, when we get to the midway point in the season and there are still teams that are undefeated I look to go against them when the opportunity is right. I did that on Thursday with the Cardinals against the undefeated 49ers and though they didn't get the upset win they did get the cash at the betting window. I am doing the same thing on Sunday with the Ravens and, though I do expect the outright upset here, I am grabbing the points (some 3.5 available as of early Sunday morning). Baltimore is a great spot here as they are off their bye week and the Ravens have gone 13-4 ATS the last 17 times when off a bye week. Also, Baltimore enters this game on a 3-game winning streak and with plenty of momentum after their win by a 2-TD margin over the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest. Of course it is hard to knock the Patriots as they are big winners year in and year out under the mastermind Bill Belichick and with Tom Brady at the controls. However, they do have a bye week on deck and last year prior to their bye week (also around this time of year) they went into Tennessee and promptly got crushed 34-10. The other important thing I want to talk about here is the Patriots schedule. The Pats have feasted on a plethora of weak opponents early this season. The Bills are the toughest team the Patriots have faced this season and they did not cover in that win. The rest of New England's schedule has been against teams with losing records including teams with just 0, 1, and 2 wins and we're now at the mid-way point of the season! Bad teams and the Pats really take a step up in level of opponent and the situation is perfect for an extremely strong game from a physical Ravens team ready to bring that physicality in a punishing way coming off their bye week. There is also a "tightener" relating to the Ravens off a bye week and that is that if they are off a bye and facing a non-divisional opponent, they've gone 11-1 ATS! I'll take it! 10* BALTIMORE

Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday NFL 8* Denver Broncos (+) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - There has been an over-reaction here because of the injury to Broncos QB Joe Flacco. I expect Brandon Allen to surprise people with his level of play here. He also has mobility which is a plus. The key here though is we're now getting a very solid defense plus as many as 4.5 points and they are at home in this one and coming off a loss. Yes Denver's season has been a disappointment thus far but so too has the Browns season. Cleveland has struggled this year and, like the Broncos, has just 2 wins on the year. Also, the brash personality of Browns QB Baker Mayfield has put a target on the back of the Cleveland offense every time they step on the field. Defenses love "getting after it" when they face a QB who has a little too much bravado as they love to "put him in his place". Keep in mind, the Browns came into this season with very high expectations and they have fallen well short thus far. Trying to right the ship at a tough place to play and facing a tough defense...I just don't see it happening. The Browns beat the Broncos here late last season but Denver entered that game having beaten Cleveland 11 straight times and now it is payback time. The Browns struggle to stop the run and the Broncos have a respectable ground game and that will help Allen get acclimated into the offense here as Denver establishes the run. The Broncos defense allowed 30 points recently to the Chiefs but that was a fluke as KC only had 271 yards of offense in that game. Considering that as well as the fact that Denver has allowed an average of only 9.3 points per game in their other 3 recent games, you can see why I am expecting the Browns to struggle against this Broncos defense at Mile High! Give men the points with the home dog here. 8* DENVER

Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Packers are a fantastic 7-1 SU on the season but if you take a look at their last 6 games it tells you why they are a bit over-valued here. Green Bay's wins included victories over Denver, Detroit, and Oakland. None of those teams have a winning record. The Packers lost to the Eagles and then, though they beat the Cowboys, Green Bay was heavily out-statted at Dallas. As for their most recent game GB took advantage of KC being without star QB Patrick Mahomes. Even facing the Chiefs without their star, the Packers still barely won that game. Now the Pack face a Chargers team that has a knack for playing tight games and yet GB is as high as a 4.5 point favorite in this one. I won't hesitate to grab the home dog here as LA also has momentum courtesy of finally getting a much-needed late game victory at Chicago last week. The Chargers lose so many tight games that this was a big confidence-booster for them and totally changes the morale of locker room heading into this match-up with a 7-1 Green Bay team. The strength of the Los Angeles defense is defending the pass and the Packers rely heavily on QB Rodgers and the passing attack. That said, the edge goes to LA here and that is particularly true because the Chargers edge is also the passing attack and they're now going against a defense that ranks in the bottom fourth of the NFL. Make no mistake about it, considering the Packers defensive production this season, they are very fortunate to be 7-1 at this point and that is why I am expecting an upset loss for GB here but I am grabbing the added insurance of having the points here in case LA loses on a late field goal as they so often seem to do. 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #465 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Detroit Lions @ 4:05 ET - Nice weather expected in Oakland today and we've got two QB's involved who both can light it up. I like the fact that the Lions and Raiders are two of the worst teams in the league when it comes to pass defense. Overall the Oakland offense has been respectable this season although they've certainly wasted some opportunities to put points on the board but that actually helps with the value here with keeping this total a few ticks lower than it should be. The Detroit passing attack ranks as one of the best in the NFL and that is why I am expecting a back and forth shootout here. Detroit has had one ugly game offensively on the scoreboard (13 points) in the Lions home opener against the Chargers. However, in their other 6 games this season they have averaged 28 points per game and I am expecting at least that today against a Raiders defense that has allowed just under 30 points per game in their last 6 games! As for the Oakland offense, they have averaged 26 points per game their last 4 games. Detroit's D has had one impressive game (against the Chargers, just 10 points, in the aforementioned home opener) but has mostly struggled. In their other 6 games this season the Lions have allowed an average of nearly 30 points per game. With this total down close to 50 and my projections calling for it to finish closer to 60, this one easily got top total status for me this week. The over is 4-1 in the Raiders last 5 games and the only under came last week by the slimmest of margins. This week's game makes up for that. The over is also 4-1 in the Lions last 5 games and the only under also came by the slimmest of margins. A  ton of value here in what should be a very entertaining back and forth shootout. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Eagles are getting healthier and getting some reinforcements on both sides of the ball for this one. After the ugly disappointment of their disaster at Dallas a few weeks ago, Philadelphia got it with a dominating win at Buffalo. They have a bye on deck next week and this is the Eagles only home game between early October and mid-November. In other words, they have had this game circled as a key game to notch the victory heading into their bye week and an upcoming showdown with the Patriots on the 17th. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS the last 6 times in a game before a bye week. They'll take advantage of facing a Bears team that is in a free-fall with 3 straight losses. Chicago's offense continues to struggle as last week was the 4th time in 7 games that the Bears have been held to 16 points or less. Also, prior to last week's tight loss to the Chargers, the Bears normally stout defense had allowed an average of 30 points in their two prior games. Chicago is in the wrong place at the wrong time to try and fix these types of problems. The Bears are 3-10 ATS their last 13 games against NFC East opponents. Of course Chicago would love to get revenge for last year's home playoff loss (a heart-breaker) to the Eagles but note also that the Bears are 0-3 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite and that is the case here after another disheartening loss last week to the Chargers that was a winnable game. The Eagles were a small dog to the Bills in Buffalo last week and won the game by an 18 point margin. Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times off an upset win as an underdog. They'll again carry that momentum well here, especially with DeSean Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Tim Jernigan all listed as probable for this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #345 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ UCLA Bruins @ 9 ET - The Bruins are playing better but they also have had some good fortune in the way the scheduling worked out recently and that helped them. UCLA has 3 wins this season and their first was the unforgettable 67-63 miracle comeback win at Washington State. However, their last two wins (they enter this game on a 2-game win streak) were helped by scheduling. They caught Stanford when the Cardinal were still celebrating their huge upset win of Washington as a double digit dog. Then the Bruins caught Arizona State last week after the Sun Devils had just played a very physical game against the Utes. It is never easy to play at Utah and ASU did that just prior to then facing UCLA. In other words, certainly the Bruins deserve some credit for their wins but there are some noteworthy aspects for sure. That said, I like backing Colorado now that they're getting a full +7 in this match-up. The Buffaloes have a knack for playing tight games as 5 of their last 7 games have been decided by 7 points or less. Colorado, other than when playing a vastly superior foe, tends to always be in their games because they have a dangerous offense. The match-up I like here is the Buffaloes #51 offense (yardage gained) facing a Bruins #114 defense (points allowed). The key is not just that match-up but the fact that the Buffs catch UCLA off B2B wins and that the Bruins were a small dog in each game. I could see UCLA being a little flat here after back to back upset wins and having a bye on deck. Bruins already thinking they could just coast into the bye. Note that the underdog is now 5-0 ATS in UCLA's last 5 games. Playing the underdog in Colorado games has produced a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games. The Buffaloes covered as a double digit dog against USC last week. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS when off an ATS cover by a double digit margin. 10* COLORADO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #367 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - UAB has been a team on the rise under head coach Bill Clark. They won 2 games the year before he arrived and have since recorded seasons of 6 wins, 8 wins, and 11 wins in succession. Now the Blazers are already 6-1 this season plus enter this game off a bye week. That said, the set up here is perfect because they are catching Tennessee off a massive upset win over South Carolina. The Volunteers were a home dog in that game and yet won the game by a 20 point margin. Certainly it is important to note that UAB has played a very weak schedule this season and, as we all know, it is not easy for the schools from weaker conferences when they travel to take on an SEC foe. However, this does not change the fact that the Blazers have won 17 of their last 21 games and are a team loaded with confidence as a result. They full believe (and expect) that they can go into Knoxville, TN and walk out a winner. Now that is certainly easier said than done but with the line moving even higher here on the Vols, I have no hesitation in backing a very dangerous underdog. Tennessee is off back to back huge SEC games at Alabama and then hosting the Gamecocks for the upset. Also, the Volunteers have another SEC game (at Kentucky) on deck. The Vols are an ugly 2-11 ATS when they face a non-conference opponent off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Volunteers are 1-8 ATS as non-conference favorites of 11.5 points or more. Also, here are a pair of perfect angles in play here! Tennessee is 0-11 ATS when facing an opponent that is off B2B SU/ATS wins. Also, the Volunteers are 0-9 ATS when off a SU win by 14.5 points or more. That puts this one in a 20-0 ATS spot for backing the Blazers! 8* UAB

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #363 Saturday 8* Army Black Knights (+) @ Air Force Falcons @ 3:30 ET - Certainly Army is down this season after back to back very strong seasons. However, this is a rivalry game and this is simply too many points being offered to the Black Knights. Keep in mind, even though they have struggled at times (particularly on offense) this season Army is still allowing just 23 points per game on the season (compared to 22 for Air Force). Note that the home team has covered just 4 of the past 15 meetings between these teams. Also, even though the Black Knights are only 3-5 SU on the season, all five of Army's losses have come by a single digit margin. Now Air Force is being asked to cover more than two TD's against a team that hasn't lost a game by a double digit margin this season. I just don't see it. I know the Falcons have been playing very well but now in the past couple weeks they were at Hawaii and then also in a big home win versus Utah State last week. This will be their 8th straight week playing a game while Army had the benefit of a bye just a few weeks ago. The Falcons are just 2-7 ATS the last 9 times they have been a double digit favorite. The Black Knights are in their preferred dog role here and are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are a dog of 4.5 points or more and coming off B2B SU and ATS losses. That system is in play and goes to 7-0 Saturday. 8* ARMY

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #381 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte 49ers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ 3:30 ET - Beautiful weather expected in Charlotte, NC this afternoon and the set-up here is perfect for plenty of fireworks on offense. Keep in mind, there are 130 teams in FBS football as you take a look at the following rankings. Defense, based on yardage allowed, has Middle Tennessee ranked #121 in the nation! Defense, based on points allowed, has Charlotte ranked #127 in the nation! That said, we're talking about two very bad defenses here and the reason I look for so much point production today is because of the momentum each of these teams have on offense right now. Both are coming off big wins keyed by their offense. Middle Tennessee scored 50 points last week as they rushed for nearly 500 yards! The Blue Raiders potent offense is finally coming together as they have averaged 40 points per game the past two weeks. As for Charlotte, they are coming off a big momentum-boosting win as they scored a very late TD for the 39-38 win versus North Texas last week. The 49ers offense plays with a lot of confidence at home because they have enjoyed a lot of success there this season. In home games, Charlotte is averaging 42 points per game this season. Look for the 49ers to score plenty again in this one but the Blue Raiders are the field goal road favorite here with good reason. In other words, Middle Tennessee will be matching them score for score. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #307 Friday 8* OVER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - Nice weather expected for this one with no precipitation and light winds and typical chilly autumn temperatures. That means both offenses can open at full throttle. Though the Navy defense has put up good numbers this season, they'll be facing a Connecticut offense that got a big boost from facing miserable Massachusetts last week. Facing the downtrodden Minutemen resulted in the Huskies putting up 56 points on the scoreboard. Now UConn catches the Huskies in what could absolutely be a flat spot for them. They are off a fierce battle against Tulane that was one on a last second field. That game totaled 79 points. I expect another high-scoring game here because it would be feasible for the Midshipmen defense to have a bit of a letdown after that big win over the Green Wave. The Huskies offense at home and off a huge performance could enjoy some early success in this one which will help insure we're seeing plenty of scoring from both teams in this one. That's because I certainly don't foresee the Huskies defense slowing down the Middies option attack in this one. Keep in mind the Connecticut defense faced the option offense when they faced Tulane a few weeks ago and got shredded for 49 points! With this total coming down to the 54 range I like the value with the over in this one.  The over is 6-2 in Navy's last 8 games against teams with a losing record. The over is 5-1 when the Midshipmen enter a game after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. The over is 5-1 for the Huskies when they enter a game after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. 8* OVER the total in Connecticut

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers are 7-0 SU this season but the Cardinals are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against San Francisco. Now, of course, I am not saying the Cards are going to win this game outright but I do feel we've got great home dog value in this match-up. The Niners are over-valued after their blowout win versus Carolina last week while Arizona is under-valued after their blowout loss at New Orleans last week. As strong as the 49ers have been, they haven't run away with the division just yet. That's because the Seahawks are right behind them and, up next for the Niners, a huge game on deck versus Seattle a week from Sunday. With that said, can the 49ers maintain full focus here and win this game by double digits on a short week? I am forecasting that the answer to that question is a no. The Cardinals entered last week's action on a 3-game winning streak but they ran into a buzzsaw as they faced a red hot Saints team that also got a big boost with the return of Drew Brees at QB! The Cards will perform much better back at home this week. When Arizona is a host, and facing an opponent off a win (both SU and ATS), they have covered 15 of the last 17 times! The fact the Cardinals are getting double digits in points here after the line move (originally line was around a TD) means we've got even more value to work with in this one. 10* ARIZONA 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8 ET - Both teams coming off bye weeks and the Bears offense has been fantastic this season. That said Baylor won't hesitate to put up plenty on the board in this one because it is also a revenge contest for them. The Bears lost 58-14 at West Virginia last season. Of course that is why the spread on this game (18.5 range) is so high and I feel the value here is with the over. The Mountaineers have struggled to run the ball this season but Baylor gave up nearly 300 rushing yards in their game at Oklahoma State prior to their bye week. That said, once West Virginia gets the ground game established in this one it will open up things through the air. Keep in mind, even though Baylor has a top 20 defense based on points allowed this season, the yardage allowed ranks them closer to a #50 defense. With that said, I love the value with the rather low total considering the Bears potent offense will do plenty of damage against a weak Mountaineers defense. Clear weather and light winds expected in Waco on this Halloween evening. The over is 4-1 when West Virginia enters a game off a road loss. Also, the over is 10-4 when the Mountaineers are off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival. Baylor's over is 5-2 off an upset win as a road underdog and they won outright at Oklahoma State prior to their bye week. Also, the Bears are a perfect 3-0 to the over as a home favorite this season. At 7.32 yards per play, Baylor is one of the top teams in the nation for offensive efficiency. The Bears and Mountaineers are set to get involved in a shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Baylor

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - I know it may seem tough lay big points with a 2-4 Steelers team. However, keep in mind we're fading an 0-6 Dolphins team and Pittsburgh is at home and coming off a bye week. Also, Miami had scored an average of just 8.4 points per game in their first 5 games this season! Certainly the Dolphins showed a little more on offense last week but that came against a Bills team that promptly got blasted by the struggling Eagles yesterday. In other words, perhaps one shouldn't put too much weight into Miami's performance at Buffalo last week. Also, the Steelers are on a 4-0 ATS run. They've gone 2-1 SU in their last 3 games and the lone loss was in overtime. In regulation time Pittsburgh has allowed 14.3 points per game their past 3 games. Not only is the defense playing well but the offense gets QB Mason Rudolph back for this one. The most comparable game to this one is when the Steelers hosted Cincinnati on a Monday night. The Bengals were (and still are) win-less. Pittsburgh rolled Cincy by a margin of 24 points and that is what I am expecting here as well. The fact the line moved down from a 17 to a 14 means we've got even more line value here. I am going with my highest rating of a 10* Top Play as a result. Lay it as the Steelers make it 5 straight covers! 10* PITTSBURGH

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have no chance here without Pat Mahomes, right? Actually I feel better about Kansas City than most do heading into this situation. Keep in mind, this is still a quality team on both sides of the ball and it is not as if they are now turning to a rookie QB with zero NFL experience. The fact is that Matt Moore is a 35 year old veteran with plenty of NFL experience and he had to play many years on mediocre Dolphins teams. Now he is surrounded by teammates that are part of a legit Super Bowl contender. Having had a full week and a half to prepare for this game (after being thrown into the fire Thursday night at Denver), Moore will be ready here. The Packers laying nearly a full TD on the road in this one is simply too much. Keep in mind, Green Bay has had the luxury of a very favorable schedule as this is just their 2nd game away from Wisconsin in the past 7 weeks! Also, this will be just their 3rd game this season against a team that currently has a winning record. In the other two games (against Dallas and Minnesota) the Packers did get the win in each game but the stats tell the full story! Green Bay was outgained in both games and, in fact, was outgained by more than a total of 300 yards by the Cowboys and Vikings. Now the Packers take on a strong Chiefs team on the road and are laying nearly a TD...I don't think so! Green Bay struggles to run the ball on offense and their defense is suspect against both the run and the pass. The Chiefs strength on defense is against the pass and I also look for the KC defense to really ramp things up at home as they are fired up about hosting Aaron Rodgers and his high-flying Packers in this one. The Chiefs D will be ready and, on the other side of the ball, Moore will utilize his weapons very well and the KC offense will take advantage of Packers weak defense! 10* KANSAS CITY

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - It is difficult to envision many defensive stops in this one. The Raiders have allowed an average of 30 points per game in their past 5 games. Though their defense has struggled, Oakland's offense has produced 24 points or more in 3 straight games. As for Houston, they have allowed 24 points or more in 3 straight games! The Texans offense has averaged 36 points per game in their past 3 games. The over is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and 3-0 in Houston's last 3 games. Both these teams have respectable offensive production but each team ranks near the bottom of the league for pass defense. Of course in today's pass-happy NFL that is the perfect recipe for a high-scoring game. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 on the season in Raiders games played away from Oakland (this includes their "home game" in London flying over the total). At the same time the over improves to a perfect 4-0 in Texans games with posted total of 49.5 points or more. This one is in the low 50s and it is justified to be posted at that level. I expect this one to get close to 60 points as both defenses struggle to get off the field all game long. 10* OVER the total in Houston 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - It looks easy to take the undefeated team here considering they are at home and laying a short number. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the road dog in this one. Keep in mind, the Niners are off a road trip to the east coast last week as they were in Washington DC to take on the Redskins. Also, SF is actually on a 5-13 ATS run as a home favorite. Each of the last 6 meetings between these teams have seen Carolina get the cash! Also, the Panthers have covered 10 of their last 13 when they are a road dog and not facing a divisional opponent. I like the fact that Carolina is playing with plenty of confidence as they are 4-0 (both SU and ATS) with Allen at QB. Unlike San Francisco, the Panthers are very rested here as they are coming off their bye week. This one sets up well for big situational edges for the road dog and I am grabbing the points. I would not be surprised to see the 49ers unbeaten season come to an end here but I am grabbing the points as added insurance should the Panthers fall just short on the scoreboard. 8* CAROLINA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1 ET - After getting thoroughly embarrassed with their performance at Dallas on Sunday night, look for a tremendous response from the Eagles this week. Philadelphia will take advantage of a Bills team that is over-valued right now. Buffalo is off a win versus Miami last week but they were out-gained in that game. The Bills won the game but were not impressive and certainly the win was aided by a pair of Dolphins turnovers. Philly is on a 15-6 ATS run in games against AFC opponents. In regular season action, the Eagles are 13-0 ATS when they are on the road after a game in which they were held to 10 or less points! Also, Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses and facing a team off a SU win by a double digit margin (Bills won by 10 last week). The Eagles already cashed in this role earlier this season when they upset the Packers at Lambeau Field! Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 1-5 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Buffalo is 2-10 ATS when at home and facing an opponent off a SU loss by a double digit margin. As you can see, great situational edge here for the road dog in this one. Also, included in the strong trending above, a pair of perfect angles combining for a 19-0 ATS mark in support of the Eagles in this match-up. The public is considering the Eagles a dead team after B2B poor road performances. When a team is most under-valued, it is the best time to step in. Hungry road dog gets it done here! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - Once again I am making a top side play that is contrarian to public opinion. This line was around a -2.5 on Michigan and now the Wolverines are the underdog in this match-up. Once again the public thinks there has been some kind of mistake here as, after all, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh so often loses the bigger games. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds-makers. There is a REASON why the odds makers made the lower-ranked team the favorite. Yes Notre Dame is in the top ten while the Wolverines are barely hanging on in the top 25 but I like a couple key factors here. One is that this game is at Michigan and the host is 8-1 (both SU and ATS) in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Another key I like here is that the Wolverines have played the tougher schedule. Michigan got embarrassed at Wisconsin earlier this season but they've been a different team ever since and actually outgained the Nittany Lions by over 130 yards last week and had a huge 26-14 edge in first downs. The Wolverines didn't get what they deserved on the scoreboard at Penn State but they'll make up for that here at home. The only truly tough match-up for Notre Dame this season has been facing Georgia. The Irish lost that game. I know the Fighting Irish have the better offense in this match-up but the Wolverines have the better defense and the home field edge and Michigan is ready to make the most of what is their one and only home game out of a 6-week stretch from early Oct to mid-Nov. The Wolverines lost at Notre Dame by a TD in the season opener last year. That is noteworthy here as Michigan is 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they have been at home and playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning percentage of .899 or less. The Wolverines already rode their defense to a big home revenging win earlier this season when they held Iowa to just 3 points in avenging a loss in their prior meeting with the Hawkeyes. Look for payback here and take advantage of additional line value offered by the line move in this one. Notre Dame has had a very home-friendly schedule this season and now drops to 1-2 SU on the season away from home with losses to the Bulldogs and the Wolverines! 10* MICHIGAN

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #147 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ 4 ET - Ideal weather conditions expected in Albuquerque, NM this afternoon with mild temperatures, clear skies, and light winds. That said, there will be no limitations on either offense here and plenty of points expected in this one. The Lobos have had trouble defending the pass and the Warriors love to attack through the air. Hawaii has had trouble defending the run and New Mexico has a strong ground attack. This is why, even though this total is a big one, it will prove to not be big enough. The Warriors lost 56-26 at home last week as Air Force ran for over 350 yards against them. This was preceded by Hawaii giving up over 200 yards on the ground against Boise a couple weeks ago. New Mexico is off a low-scoring loss last week but playing at Wyoming is why the Lobos were involved in a rare defensive struggle. The Lobos are allowing over 350 passing yards per game this season and that ranks them dead last in the nation. New Mexico's 3 home games this season have averaged 78 points per game and this one should get well past the 70 mark. When on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games, Hawaii is 36-18 to the over. When off a home loss to a conference rival, the Warriors are 24-9 to the over. When the Lobos enter a match-up after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, the over is 3-1. The Warriors have allowed 57.5 points per game the past two weeks. Hawaii has scored an average of 45.5 points per game in their past two road contests. The Lobos get their offense back on track at home but the Warriors pile up points too. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #189 Saturday 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ Noon ET - QB N'Kosi Perry has been upgraded to probable for the Hurricanes in this one and is expected to get the start. He has completed 60% of his passes and has 7 TDs against just 1 INT since moving into the primary QB role this month. Miami is off a disappointing OT loss to Georgia Tech last week and, as a result, will bring their "A game" on the road at Pittsburgh this week. The Panthers are just 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Miami but are favored here due to being at home plus the Canes recent disappointment. That said, the result is great line value in a spot like this. Pittsburgh has won 4 straight games but they have not won 5 straight games in TEN years! Also, the Panthers 4 wins have all come by just a single score. Prior to being Syracuse by a TD last week, Pitt's 3 prior wins in this streak all came by 3 or less points. I see great value here with catching, as of early game day morning, +4.5 with the Hurricanes in this one. The Orange team that the Panthers beat last week by a TD is really down this season. Syracuse wins have come against Liberty, Holy Cross, and a MAC team. In other words, don't put too much stock into the Panthers beating Syracuse. Pitt's most recent home game is also quite telling as they won by just 3 points against Delaware! The Panthers were a 30 point favorite in that game and yet scored only 17 points! Now Pitt faces a tough Hurricanes defense off a disappointing loss. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh, 2 years ago, they entered the game 10-0 on the season but the Panthers upset them. The Canes got some payback with last year's home win but they still want to get it done AT Pittsburgh as well. They won't let this opportunity pass them by! Grab the handful of points here but we shouldn't need them. 8* MIAMI

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #105 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Buffaloes vs USC Trojans @ 9 ET - Beautiful weather expected in Boulder on Friday evening and that means both teams will be able to fully execute their game plans on offense. That is bad news for two defenses that are both struggling (Colorado) and hobbled (USC). I also look for the Buffaloes offense to play much better at home after struggling badly in tough conditions at Washington State last week. Colorado had scored very well this season prior to running into tough road games against the Cougars and at Oregon the prior week. The Buffaloes had averaged 34.6 points per game in their first 5 games this season. As for the Trojans, they had one bad game offensively (at Washington) that is dragging their numbers down a bit on offense. Take that "outlier" game out of the equation and Southern Cal scored 27 or more in each of their other 6 games this season. USC averaged 33.5 points per game in those 6 games. Also, prior to allowing just 14 points last week (and by the way Trojans D could be peeking ahead to HUGE game versus Oregon on deck), the SoCal D had allowed an average of 25.7 points per game this season. Long-term the over is 16-9 in USC games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. The over is 9-4 when the Buffaloes enter a game off consecutive road losses. Based on yardage allowed this season USC ranks 92nd defensively while the Buffs rank 123rd. Don't look for many stops here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Redskins @ 8:20 ET - After getting shutout last week in rainy weather on their home field in DC, Washington will put up some points at Minnesota this week. Of course this is a short rest situation for both teams and the Vikings defense allowed 30 points at Detroit last week. Minnesota also comes into this game having averaged 36 points per game the last 3 weeks as Kirk Cousins, former Redskin, is back in the zone. Case Keenum, former Viking, will be under center for Washington here. Look for these guys to try and outduel each other and this is a low total even though Minnesota, last week notwithstanding, does have a strong defense. The Vikings pass defense this season only ranks them in the middle of the pack this year while the Redskins overall defense ranks them in the bottom third of the NFL. The over is 9-4 in Redskins Thursday games. Also, Washington is 6-2 to the over when they are off a game in which they allowed 14 or less points. Look for the Vikings over to improve to 3-0 their last 3 games as the Redskins enter this game having gone 3-0 to the their over their last 3 against NFC North opponents. The over is 21-11 when Minnesota enters a game having scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. In other words, don't look for the Vikings to slow down here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7:30 ET - With SMU off a blowout win over Temple and Houston off an unimpressive win against a bad UConn team, the markets are shaded heavily toward the Mustangs here. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the Cougars here! Give me the big points with the home dog as Houston is known for playing much better at home and also they get their QB back this week after he missed last week's game and the Cougars were down to #3 on the depth chart with Logan Holgorsen. Houston will have Clayton Tune back this week and I look for him to atone for his 3 INT performance in his most recent game as that was against a tough Cincinnati defense. Note that SMU has allowed an average of 30 points per game in their 3 road games this season! Also, the Mustangs are overvalued here because they have been a covering machine this season. The Cougars have done well in the big dog role and I fully expect that to continue here as you know Houston will be "up" for this game against an in-state conference foe that is undefeated on the season and also ranked in the top 25. This is a big game for the Cougars that they are relishing to have at home and with the ESPN cameras rolling! Houston is a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a SU road win in conference action. As a dog of +1.5 or more, the Cougars are 15-3-1 their last 19 games. More of the same expected here! SMU is 0-4 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin over a conference rival. Not only are the Mustangs off the big win over the Owls last week, they also have a huge game with Memphis on deck. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Weather can be an issue at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ but that will not be the case tonight. Light winds, clear skies, and comfortable temperatures combine for the perfect setting for plenty of offense in this one. The Patriots Tom Brady has dominated the Jets defense in recent meetings. The Jets got back their QB, Sam Darnold, last week and he had a huge game against the Cowboys. That is the same Dallas defense that made the Eagles offense look like it was "boys against men" last night. In other words, don't be surprised if the Jets offense has more success tonight than many are expecting. That is the "contrarian" aspect of this play and I am looking for plenty of points as a result because I certainly don't expect the Jets D to be able to slow down Brady and Company. New England has averaged 31 points per game in its last 6 games against the Jets. The Patriots are favored by about 10 points in this game. Would anyone be surprised to see a 31-21 final tonight? I sure wouldn't and that would mean this game gets into the low 50s. The over is 61-38 when the Pats enter a game after scoring 35 points or more last game. Yes, the New England defense has been fantastic this season but note that the over is 4-2 when the Patriots enter a game after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games. Also, the over is on a 10-4 run the last 14 times the Jets have played a team with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Dallas has lost 3 straight games. That said, the ability to get +3 in going against them in a huge divisional rivalry game is an absolutely massive value. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have 3 wins this season and those came against teams that are now a combined 3-14 on the season. The Eagles, like Dallas, are only 3-3 on the season but they at least have one signature win as they handed Green Bay (now 5-1) their only loss of the season. That is the same Packers team that beat the Cowboys. Also, Philly absolutely dominated the Jets and the Cowboys are off a loss to the Jets in New York last week. The Eagles are getting a little help back in the secondary this week and that will be a key against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Note that Dallas has beaten Philly 3 straight times but one of those victories was the meaningless season finale two years ago when the Eagles were resting players for their playoff run which culminated in a Super Bowl Title. That said though, Philadelphia certainly hasn't forgotten about being swept by their most hated rivals since taking home the Lombardi trophy! It is payback time Sunday night in Big D and right now, Carson Wentz is playing more consistently than Prescott. Wentz has one more TD toss and HALF as many picks as Prescott so far this season. Also, the Eagles rush defense is one of the best in the league and Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott has struggled against top competition this season. When Philly is playing with revenge against an NFC foe and the Eagles are on the road and entering the game off an ugly ATS loss by a double digit margin, they are 8-1 ATS! After getting embarrassed at Minnesota last week, the Eagles come out with fire this week and get their revenge. Look for the Eagles to get the upset but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:25 ET - The Ravens like to blitz a lot but Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has had great success against the blitz this season. Overall, both Seattle and Baltimore are enjoying plenty of success on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, the weakness of each team on defense is against the pass. In other words, look for plenty of points in this one. The kicker for me in terms of the tremendous value here is that this total was as high as a 51 and yet is now as low as a 48 as of early game day morning. Jump on the line value available with this one. The over is 3-0 in Ravens road games this season and, overall, on the year Baltimore is scoring an average of 31 points per game. The Ravens have not been held below 23 points in any of their games this season. The Seahawks have not been held below 21 points in any of their games this season. As you can see with these numbers, we're already in the mid-forties with this total even if both teams have season-worst performances in terms of point totals on the board and I simply don't see that happening in this non-conference match-up. These AFC/NFC battles tend to be played with a little less intensity on defense and, again, both teams have had trouble against the pass this season. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games and they have scored at least 27 points in all 5 of those games! In fact, that is another way to look at this one too. If Ravens score at least their minimum on the season (23) and the Seahawks score at least their minimum the past 5 games (27) you have this game already getting to 50 points! The over is 14-7 when the Ravens are entering a game off 3 straight divisional games! The over is 9-2 when Seattle is off a win by a margin of 6 or less points. Also, the over is 8-3 in Seahawks games against non-conference opposition. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Lions are on a short week coming off a Monday Night trip to Lambeau Field. However, the set-up here is otherwise perfect. Detroit is back at home after falling just short against the Packers. The Lions catch the Vikings off a huge win over the Eagles last week. Detroit has double revenge here from getting swept by Minnesota last season. Also, the Vikings have struggled early this season on the road in divisional action as they already lost at Green Bay and Chicago. The Lions have covered 6 of their last 8 games overall. The Vikings, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when on the road after an ATS win by a double digit margin, have gone 2-9 ATS. In other words, don't be surprised if they fall flat away from home after trouncing Philly in Minnesota last week. As for the Lions, they are on a 4-0 ATS run but have lost SU each of the last two weeks. Note that, under head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions are 4-1 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive SU losses. Detroit, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when facing a team with a winning record are 10-2 ATS when coming off a SU loss in divisional action! After getting swept by the Vikings last season, the Lions respond in their first opportunity against them this season. 8* DETROIT

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #459 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Oakland Raiders @ 1 ET - The Raiders strength this season is running the ball and we have seen the Packers run defense (other than rare exception Monday versus Lions) struggle badly. On the flip side, Green Bay's offense tends to be led much more by the passing of Aaron Rodgers rather than the ground game. Again, Monday versus Detroit was a rare exception as the Packers rushing attack was strong. But the key here is that Rodgers and Company will be going against a Raiders defense that has struggled more against the pass than the run. The point is that the match-ups here favor both offenses over the defenses they will be facing in this one. Couple that factor with the fact that the weather will be very pleasant this afternoon with no precipitation and light winds and this means you have the ideal set up for a non-conference high-scoring shootout! The Raiders are off a bye week which followed an outright win as a 7 point dog against the Bears in London. Oakland is 5-2 to the over when off an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Raiders are 4-2 to the over in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Green Bay is an incredible 16-2 to the over when off a home game and that includes a perfect 3-0 when off a home win versus a divisional foe. Additionally, the Packers are 6-1 to the over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. After I got burned with the over falling just short in their Monday night match-up with the Lions, I come right back with it (and cash it) here. 8* OVER the total in Green Bay

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Georgia State Panthers (+) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - The Panthers coaching staff includes personnel very familiar with the option. That gives Georgia State an added edge here that most teams don't have when facing Army. Additionally, the Black Knights offense has actually struggled this season and ranks #117 in the nation based on total yardage. Conversely, the Panthers offense ranks 19th in the nation based on total yardage. I am aware of the fact that Army has the much better ranking defense in this match-up. But again, the fact that the Black Knights are now running into a team whose coaches have experience in how to defense the option attack which Army employs certainly gives a bit of an edge there. Additionally, the way the Georgia State offense has been playing, I don't see Army being able to shut them down. The Panthers also have the home field edge here and have scored 31 or more points in 5 of their 6 games this season! This is just the 3rd home game of the season for Georgia State and, in the first two, they scored an average of 50 points per game! Last week's loss at Western Kentucky was the 3rd time this season that Army has been held to 14 points or less. The Black Knights have now lost back to back games SU and are also on an 0-3 ATS run. On the other hand, Georgia State is off back to back wins and covers. Momentum clearly in favor of the Panthers in this one and I'll grab the home dog as they stay hot. 8* GEORGIA STATE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #359 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 6 ET - The Utes were picked off 3 times in last year's match-up with the Sun Devils and this helped lead the way to Arizona State getting the win by 18 points. That said, not only is this a revenge game for Utah, they also are quite likely to keep their foot on the gas just like ASU did in last year's big win. That is why I love the over in this match-up even though a little bit of rain and 15 mph winds could be around Salt Lake City this afternoon. The fact is that Arizona State's defense is overvalued because they have played so many bad offenses. Now they face a tough Utes offense and, keep in mind, ASU did allow 34 points both times they were "challenged" this season as Colorado and Washington State each put that number on the Sun Devils defense. As for the Utah defense, it certainly is a good one but they did allow 30 points to USC and also have allowed 26 points or more in each of their last 3 meetings with the Sun Devils. In other words, Arizona State has a history of success when facing the Utes defense and, despite being a double digit dog in this one, ASU hangs around in this one for awhile which also helps it get over the low total. The Sun Devils are off a tight win versus Washington State last week and the over is 20-11 when Arizona State is off a win by a margin of 6 or less points. Utah's offense has plenty of confidence rolling into this one after hanging 52 on the scoreboard at Oregon State last week. Note that the Utes over is 20-11 when off a road win by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Utah

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #390 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 4 ET - The Bears are 6-0 on the season and, for the first time under head coach Rhule, are ranked in the top 25. That said, the odds makers must have made some kind of mistake here, right? After all, how can the unranked Cowboys be favored over a Baylor team that has won 8 straight games dating back to last season? Exactly! Don't be fooled. It is no mistake. The odds makers know what they are doing. The Bears are off a tough game where they had to rally to force OT and ended up winning in double-OT over Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this was a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits so, in other words, quite unimpressive. Speaking of unimpressive, look at the Bears schedule this season! That said, they now face their toughest test of the season and I like an Oklahoma State team playing at home and that comes in rested off a bye week last week! The situation is set up perfect for the Cowboys to roll at home and their potent offense won't take their foot off the gas either. That's because last year the Bears took it to Oklahoma State and won the game 35-31. Now it is time for payback! The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 home games against Baylor. Also, note that the host has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between these teams SU. While the Bears are off a dramatic win last week, the Cowboys suffered a loss by 10 to the Red Raiders two weeks ago at Texas Tech. That was prior to the OSU bye. That is noteworthy here as Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times in their first game after playing Texas Tech. Also, when playing with extra rest following a SU loss by a double digit margin, the Cowboys are 9-1 ATS! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #343 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - Ideal set up for grabbing a huge underdog in what should actually be a very competitive game. Of course in comparing Iowa and Purdue, the Hawkeyes are the much better team and plus are at home for this one. However, the Boilermakers enter this game off a confidence-boosting 40-14 win over Maryland and they catch Iowa off very physical and emotionally draining losses at Michigan and versus Penn State the past two weeks. Of course the Hawkeyes want to get back into the win column and I certainly expect them to do that here. However, how much will they have left in the tank in terms of truly putting on a beatdown of a Big Ten rival that will certainly have no shortage of emotion for this game. This spread is around 18 and, keep in mind, the Hawkeyes have been held to scoring 18 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games. Also, Purdue is playing their 7th game of the season and they've only had 2 ugly losses this season. The Boilermakers other 2 losses were tight and, with last week's win over the Terrapins, they now have 2 SU wins this season as well. The visitor is actually 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams and the Boilermakers do have a history of playing well here. They made some changes to their O-line last week and their back-up QB had a huge game as a result. Iowa, of course, has a very tough defense, but this road dog has some confidence now and the Hawkeyes defensive energy is a little worn down after facing the Wolverines and Nittany Lions the past two weeks. 8* PURDUE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6:30 ET - The Owls got blasted at Marshall last season and are looking forward to revenge here at home. Florida Atlantic is lead by head coach Lane Kiffin and he is on a 13-6 ATS run in games against Conference USA opponents. The Thundering Herd have been trending the other direction as they have lost the money in 13 of their past 18 games! Marshall is off a non-covering win against a bad Old Dominion team and the Thundering Herd entered that game having scored an average of just 16.8 points per game in their 4 prior games. That has a lot to with QB Green not exactly "lighting it up" for the Thundering Herd. On the other hand, Owls QB Robison certainly has been strong this season for FAU. With a very manageable number at home I have no hesitation in laying the short number here. In Kiffin's first year on the job the Owls went 9-0 in conference action in 2017. However, in 2018 they went only 3-5 SU. Of those 5 SU losses, 3 of the opponents were to be faced by FAU again this season. Those 3 were Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. So far the Owls are 2-0 on the revenge tour with wins over the 49ers and Blue Raiders. Now it is time to make it a 3-0 revenge tour sweep by knocking off the Thundering Herd and I look for the Owls to do just that! 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - Broncos off a home shutout win while the Chiefs are off a home upset loss. That makes this the perfect set up for backing the small home favorite. Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for this game. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's teams are 11-3 ATS when they enter a game off a straight up loss in non-divisional action and are facing a team off a straight up win. KC is now off back to back losses after a 4-0 start while the Broncos are off back to back wins after an 0-4 start. That makes this the ideal spot to back Kansas City. Denver has gotten the cash just once in their last seven meetings with the Chiefs and the Broncos have not gotten the cash a single time in their last five as a host in this series! There is an old adage about "defense wins football games" and I am well aware of the fact that Denver has the much better defense in this match-up. However, not only is Kansas City's offense much better than the Broncos offensive attack, this one is also simply very strong from a situational standpoint. I don't see KC losing 3 straight and I don't see the Broncos winning 3 straight. That said, I have no hesitation in taking advantage of the line move here and laying the short number with the Chiefs. 10* KANSAS CITY

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Thursday 8* UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (-) @ Arkansas State @ 7:30 ET - UL Lafayette is off a low-scoring loss but they faced a tough Appalachian State team. Now the Ragin Cajuns face the struggling defense of Arkansas State and I expect this one will turn into a road road. UL Lafayette entered their game against the Mountaineers having averaged nearly 550 yards and 45 points per game! Their offense will surely bounce back against a Red Wolves defense that has been hurt (literally) by injuries this season. Arkansas State has allowed averages of 45 points per game and over 600 yards a game the past month. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 7-1 ATS run (not including bowl game) in their last 8 games played away from home! The road warriors get the job done again Thursday as they bounce back off their first ATS loss of the season. Arkansas State is off a bye week which was preceded by them getting blasted 52-38 at Georgia State. The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS when they are a dog of 6.5 points or less and off a game in which they allowed 36 points or more. The Ragin Cajuns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. 8* UL LAFAYETTE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars @ 8 ET - The Jaguars offense has struggled this season but they're facing a Trojans defense that ranks 98th out of 130 teams. That will help South Alabama get back on track offensively. But the Jags issues will be trying to stop a potent Troy offense. The Trojans were held in check in their most recent game but that was because they faced Missouri. Of course that level of opponent is "out of their league" literally. That said, note that the Trojans entered that game having averaged 41.3 points per game in their first 4 games. Also, Troy QB Barker (had been hurt in game against Tigers) is back and listed as probable for this game. The Jaguars, as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points, are 4-2 to the over their last 6. The Trojans, as a home favorite of 14.5 to 17 points, are 4-2 to the over. Also, Troy is 5-1 to the over when off a bye week. The Trojans are also 15-7 to the over after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games. South Alabama also was off last week so there is extra prep time and more rest time for each team heading into this one. With the Jags needing a breakout game offensively and the Trojans off a dud at Missouri and looking for a lot more offense here, I'll take advantage of the low total posted on this game. 8* OVER the total in Troy

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - Chilly temperatures in Green Bay this evening but that is certainly not unusual for mid-October. The positive factors are no precipitation and light winds expected this evening for this divisional battle. Nice weather that will not limit the playbook of either offense. That said, and I am aware of the Davante Adams injury for the Packers, both teams should light up the scoreboard tonight. The over is 3-1 in Lions games this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 weeks in Green Bay's games. The Packers are seeking revenge for last year's season-ending shutout at the hands of the division rival Lions. That game stayed under the total as Green Bay didn't contribute at all to the total. Of course that changes in a big way tonight and, prior to that meeting, the over was a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. The Lions have allowed 24 points or more in 3 of their 4 games this season. Green Bay has allowed an average of 29 points per game the past two weeks. Though the Packers allowed "only" 24 points to the Cowboys last week, they did allow over 400 yards of passing at Dallas. The Lions will be able to attack the Packers D through the air. Detroit ranks as one of the better passing attacks in the league but their pass D ranks near the bottom. This is another reason I am expecting both Stafford and Rodgers to light it up through the air in tonight's game. The over is 3-1 in Detroit's games when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Packers games when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Don't be surprised if QB Devlin Hodges plays well for the Steelers on Sunday night. Getting some work in against the Ravens last week (and nearly rallying Pittsburgh for the win) will serve him well here on the road at LA. The Chargers enter this game off a disappointing performance as they managed just 13 points against the Broncos last week as they turned the ball over 3 times. They had scored 30 points the prior week at Miami. The Los Angeles offense, under QB Philip Rivers, will get back on track here against a Steelers defense that, other than dominating hapless Cincinnati, has struggled often this season. Pittsburgh's non-Bengals game have seen them allow an average of 27 points (NOT including OT) in 4 games! The Steelers offense has averaged 24 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and ALL 5 games totaled at least 44 points! The low total posted on this game could be a key as well as Pittsburgh's over is 4-2 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. The Chargers over is 3-0 off a home loss against a division rival. The LA over is 11-4 off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. Rivers bounces back this week but Hodges plays well for the Steelers too and a surprising shootout breaks out in beautiful weather for this one Sunday evening. 10* OVER the total in LA CHARGERS