Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #118 Friday 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 11:30 AM ET - Toledo is off of a blowout road win at Bowling Green last week. That holds extra significance here because the Rockets are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 8 points after a SU win that covered the spread by double digits! After blowing out the Falcons on the road last week, Toledo blows out the Broncos at home this week. The Rockets have plenty of motivation here as they had won 5 straight in this series but have now lost to Western Michigan each of the last two seasons. It is time for payback and they have a huge advantage on the offensive side of the ball as the Broncos have been a different team without Jon Wassink at QB. Western Michigan is also very banged up at the RB position and the Rockets are averaging 513 yards per game on offense. The Broncos average only 400 yards per game on offense. Also, Toledo has played the tougher schedule this season. The Rockets also are on a 7-1 ATS run after facing Bowling Green. Western Michigan already has the 6th win they needed for bowl eligibility while the Rockets are highly motivated here in a double-revenge spot and with needing a win to guarantee a spot in the MAC title game. 8* TOLEDO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* New York Giants (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - Both teams are banged up but the Redskins have so many injuries they decided against even running a regular practice of 11 on 11 leading into this game. Washington also is a full TD favorite here. With that said, I see great line value with an underdog Giants team that is still playing for pride. New York proved last week they could still rise up as they did just that against the Chiefs and got the tight win. There will be no shortage of motivation here either as they of course detest the division rival Redskins. While one could argue that the Giants will be emotionally flat after a big upset win over Kansas City, keep in mind the Redskins also have emotional issues after letting one slip away against New Orleans last week. Washington put a lot of energy and effort into that game against the Saints and then they ended up walking away empty-handed. That is a very tough on a team and the Redskins have had disappointment as a common theme so far this season with so many blown games. The Giants ended the Skins post-season hopes last year with a late-season win in Washington. They are motivated to do it again here. Yes, it is not quite so late in the season but if the Redskins are dropped to 4-7, the glimmer of hope for the post-season certainly dims! The Giants are 3-1 ATS on grass this season and also a long-term 7-2 ATS in Thursday games. Washington is 2-6 ATS on grass and also a long-term 13-28 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Giants are also 10-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 points when facing a team off of a SU loss. New York is also 7-2 ATS as a divisional dog of more than 4 points. The Giants also are 10-0 ATS when they are dogs off of SU win that covered the spread by double digits! Last week's win rejuvenated the Giants while the Redskins entered this season 0-9 ATS when at home and facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage of .249 or less. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - Just in time for their biggest game of the season, the Rebels did something Saturday versus Texas A & M that was the last thing they wanted to do. Ole Miss showed Mississippi State the blueprint for how to shutdown their offense as they went scoreless in the 2nd half versus the Aggies after scoring 24 points in the first half. That horrific effort for the Rebels tells the Bulldogs all they need to know and Mississippi State is "out for blood" here. Yes, the Bulldogs did crush the Rebels last season at Ole Miss but they also were crushed at home by double digits two years ago. In that game Ole Miss was up 28 to 3 at halftime of what ended up being a 38-27 home loss that Mississippi State has not forgotten. I know that the new Rebels QB Te'amu has had some solid moments but I also watched him falter badly in last week's loss to the Aggies. The Bulldogs will take advantage of not having to face injured QB starter Shea Patterson and it will be Mississippi State's QB, Nick Fitzgerald, whom shines brightly in this one. With the line dropping down to 13.5 as of T-day morning, I am now pulling the trigger on a match-up I expect will be a blowout. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS at home this season. The Rebels are 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season and also had gone 0-3 ATS at Mississippi State in their last 3 visits before that big win two years ago. Now it is payback time for the Bulldogs. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 4:30 ET - The Chargers run defense is a weakness. The Cowboys, even though dealing with injuries, have still amassed 219 yards on 48 carries the past two weeks. Dallas will take advantage of a Los Angeles run defense that has allowed 308 rushing yards on 49 carries the past two weeks. Though the Chargers point production last week was certainly helped by turnovers, the fact is that LA still amassed 429 yards of offense in the win. Look for Philip Rivers and company to take advantage of a suspect Cowboys pass defense. Prior to last week's ugly loss to the Eagles, Dallas had allowed pass completions of a combined 71.6% their three prior games. I expect a big game from Rivers plus they have run for over 145 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. At the same time, I expect the Dallas offense to respond after being held to a total of just 16 points their past two games. Yes they have some issues with the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and some injuries on offense, but these are still professionals that are ready to step it up after being embarrassed the past two weeks. That means plenty of points in this one because the absence of Sean Lee on the Cowboys defense is also creating a glaring weakness. Dallas is known for struggling on D when he is not out there and he is officially out for this game. The over is a long-term 62-39 in Los Angeles games against the NFC. Also, when the Chargers are facing an NFC East foe, the over is a fantastic 18-9. More of the same here. 8* OVER in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 12:30 ET - The Vikings are off of a big win over the Rams! While the Vikings certainly have been hot, they are now traveling on a short week and facing a division rival that knows this game is critical if they have hopes of catching the Vikes in the NFC North. The Lions have also been hot with wins in 3 straight games. Detroit was only 3-4 before the 3-game winning streak but 3 of those losses were by 5 points or less and the 5-point loss to the Steelers saw the Lions outgain Pittsburgh by 90 yards! The lone ugly loss was to New Orleans but the Saints outgained Detroit by a very slim margin in that game. The point is that the Lions have been playing quite well, perhaps even better than their record shows and I feel Minnesota is very over-rated at this point. Everyone is jumping on the Vikes here because they just saw them shut down the Rams last week. However, that was the first win in this 6-game winning streak for the Vikings that has come against a team that currently has a winning record. I am not sold on a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB. I know he has played well recently but we all know his past. I'd much rather have Matthew Stafford on my side at QB and that is also a big part of the reason the Lions are my "side" in this one! The Lions have averaged 314.6 passing yards per game their last 5 games. The Vikings have had only one true road game in their last 5 games and that has helped them build this win streak. In true road games this season Minnesota has been held to 146 passing yards or less in 2 of 3 games. 8* DETROIT

Total Dominator Top Play - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 10* OVER the total in Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - The weather in Ypsilanti, Michigan will be cold but not brutal this evening. The winds will be subsiding and the rain will have moved out. That means conditions are fine for both teams to move the ball very well in this one and that spells trouble for the Bowling Green defense. The Falcons have allowed 43.2 points per game their last 5 games. BG is facing an Eastern Michigan offense that has gained at least 450 yards in 3 of it's last 5 games. The Eagles scored 56 points in their most recent home game and they'll take advantage of facing one of the worst defenses in the MAC. On the season, Bowling Green is allowing 517.2 yards per game. The Falcons though can move the ball well on offense. That is why the over is a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games. BG has averaged 36.3 points per game in their last 3 road games and they are off of a strong performance at home last week as they put up 37 points on Toledo. The Eagles defense is solid and is certainly one of the better defenses in the MAC but they're certainly not dominating. Eastern Michigan has allowed at least 392 yards in 5 of its last 7 games. The over is 3-1 in the Eagles last 4 games. The Falcons have thrown for 301.5 yards per game the past 2 weeks and they'll again enjoy success through the air in this one. 10* OVER the total in Eastern Michigan

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - Of course Seattle has revenge from last year's post-season loss to Atlanta. However, the Falcons are looking up at the Seahawks in the overall NFC standings and Atlanta is very hungry to get back to the post-season after the Super Bowl debacle versus the Patriots. A couple of keys to this play include the fact Atlanta has faced the tougher schedule and also the fact that Seattle has more key injuries. Of course at this point in the season teams are going to be banged up but the Seahawks losing Richard Sherman on defense is huge. Then, on offense, even if left tackle Duane Brown is able to play, he won't be 100% and that spells trouble against the Falcons pass rush. I am aware of the fact that Atlanta is without RB Devonta Freeman but they have decent depth in the running game and of course QB Matt Ryan and company are going to attack the Seahawks through the air. Seattle's defense has been further weakened by the loss of safety Kam Chancellor to injury. Back to the strength of schedule I noted above, Seattle's wins have included victories over the Colts, Niners, and Giants and those teams are a combined 6-24 on the season. Also, the Seahawks have beaten the Cardinals and Texans but both those teams have losing records and they faced Houston without QB Deshaun Watson. The only "impressive win" Seattle has would be that they beat the Rams but note that Los Angeles actually outgained them by 136 yards in that game! Only 2 of Atlanta's 5 wins have come against teams that currently have a losing record. Also, the Falcons losses included tough opponents like New England and Carolina. Atlanta is on a 5-1 ATS run against NFC West teams and also on a 10-5 ATS run as an underdog. Seattle is on a 34-50 ATS run when off of a win in divisional action and also on a 1-6 ATS run against NFC South teams. There is a reason this line is so low even though the Seahawks have the better record, are playing with revenge, and are at home. Don't be fooled. The road dog gets it done here. 8* ATLANTA 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys were rolling with 3 straight wins prior to last week's loss at Atlanta but it is amazing how quickly things can change in the NFL. First off, Ezekiel Elliott's suspension finally was enforced beginning last week. Then, LB Sean Lee and OL Tyron Smith got hurt. Elliott, of course, is out again this week while Lee also is listed as out due to his hamstring while Smith is listed as doubtful due to his back injury. These aren't just role players, these are KEY players for Dallas as the Cowboys have fared very poorly on defense when Lee is not out there and the absence of Smith really hurts the offensive line. Also, with no Elliott, the 'Boys run game has also been impacted greatly. Now bundle all that together and consider that the Cowboys must host an Eagles team that is rested off of a bye week, has the #1 record in the league, and that hates them with a passion. You truly have the makings of a road rout here because the Eagles won't take their foot off of the gas and they have the ability to get up big here as their offense has been so balanced. QB Carson Wentz has been phenomenal this season but defenses can't just focus on stopping him because Philly has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and they are loaded at running back after now also adding Jay Ajayi to the group! The Eagles did lose their last visit to Dallas but they also blasted the Cowboys by 14 in the most recent meeting. Also, prior to the loss at Dallas, the 2013, 2014, 2015 seasons saw the road team in this match-up go 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The home field simply hasn't meant much and also Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS their last 6 off of a bye week. Dallas has covered just 2 of their last 11 in the 2nd half of a season when they're facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles have covered 6 straight games overall and they stay hot here! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills @ 4:05 ET - I love the fact that the Chargers have the longest current streak in the NFL for unders at 4 because the fact is that their defense is truly not that good. The result is line value here because a total that opened up in mid-40s is now all the way down to a 41 as of early gameday morning. The Bills are expected to start Nathan Peterman. Buoyed by the confidence of a scoring drive versus the Saints last week, look for him to enjoy success at LA as the Chargers run defense is the worst in the league! That means the Bills rushing offense - which is respectable to say the least - will be able to enjoy success against the Chargers and that will force LA to respect the run here. In turn, Peterman gets opportunities downfield. At the same time, should he falter and Tyrod Taylor is called upon, look for him to respond big-time after being benched. As for the Chargers and QB Philip Rivers, the veteran signal-caller is one of the best in the business. The fact he is listed as probable means he has been cleared to play (concussion) and you can bet he'll be out there carving up a Bills defense that has given up 267 passing yards per game the last 5 games. Also concerning for Buffalo fans is the run defense has been knifed through for 246 rushing yards per game the past two games! The over is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 games. The over is also 4-0 in Buffalo's last 4 games versus AFC West competition. The Chargers are 6-3 to the over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Beautiful weather for this one too with mild temperatures and light winds and clear skies! 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Packers are off of a win but they certainly are not the same team without QB Aaron Rodgers. Now Green Bay has more injuries to be concerned with as RB Ty Montgomery is questionable (ribs) and RB Aaron Jones is out (MCL). Also, QB Brett Hundley is probable for today's game and I fully expect him to be ready to go but he is bothered by a hamstring injury. The Packers now host a rested Ravens team that was able to heal up some thanks to a bye last week. Baltimore is on a 7-2 ATS run when off of a bye week and their defense does rank among the top units in the NFL. Also, Baltimore's pass rush and pass protection both rank higher than the Packers in each category. Even with last week's win and cover at Chicago, Green Bay is still only 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they've been an underdog against a team with a losing record. The Ravens are currently a 2-point choice in most books. Although I would recommend grabbing the very reasonable money line if you have access to it for this one, the fact is that Baltimore is on an 8-1 ATS run when they are a favorite of more than 1 point and playing with rest! Look for a huge effort from the Ravens here off of the bye week as the offense also had a chance to work out the kinks during their bye week and the defense remains rock solid. 10* BALTIMORE

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 7:30 ET - Missouri looks great, don't they? They've won 4 straight games and have been piling up points. They must be ready to join the SEC's elite, right? Far from it! This Tigers team is one of the most over-rated I have ever seen and they are getting way too much respect here on the road. I don't blame the odds makers because they knew everyone would be crazy about Missouri here so they had to set this number high. The point is that the betting markets are fooled and that is why the Tigers are still favored by more than a touchdown as of gameday morning even though they're on the road and their last 4 wins have been against, get this, NO ONE! The Tigers have faced Florida and Tennessee programs in disarray this season (both have fired their coaches this season) and Missouri also faced a pair of non-conference teams that are a combined 6-13 this season. Keep in mind that, prior to this easy stretch of schedule, the Tigers were on the SEC road and lost both games and gave up 93 points! Now certainly I am not saying that Vanderbilt is a powerhouse because they are definitely far from it but what I am saying is that the Commodores are coming to play Saturday and they are a big home dog that absolutely win this game outright! Vandy is off of an embarrassing home loss but they turned the ball over 4 times. This is their home finale and their next game is at dysfunctional Tennessee and the Commodores are sitting on 4 wins. You can bet their going to "bring it" in their home finale as they still have hopes of becoming bowl eligible and certainly a win over the Volunteers is plausible next week. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points while the Commodores improve to 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Value is off the charts here because Vandy has played a tougher schedule than Missouri and this particularly true in recent weeks. Even with the Tigers road covers this season they are still just 4-9 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons and they are over-priced here. 10* VANDERBILT

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #413/414 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Mississippi Rebels vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7 ET - The only thing that kept this from being a top play is the fact that there still could be some gusty winds in Oxford, MS this evening but truly this should be a shootout and most of the winds should have subsided behind an afternoon cool front that also will have brought rain. It should be clearing skies and only moderate winds for this match-up and this game is going to bring out the best in both offenses. Since the Rebels replaced injured QB Patterson with Ta'amu, the offense has been completely rejuvenated. Ole Miss, with Ta'amu under center, has thrown for an average of 389.3 yards per game the last 3 games. The Rebels are averaging 41 points per game their last 5 games but their defense is still a major weakness. Ole Miss is allowing 462.7 yards per game on the season. The reason this is a contrarian play is because the total is so big that many will be looking to the under in this one but the fact is that the Aggies will also be able to pile up points in this one. Texas A & M got their confidence back on offense with last week's 55-point outburst and the only reason their more recent offensive numbers are much lower is because they faced a slate of tough defenses week after week. Now they face a defense similar to the Arkansas defense they shredded for over 500 yards in a 50-43 win earlier this season. The over is 7-0 in the Rebels last 7 games. Also, the Aggies defense has allowed 38.5 points per game in their last two games against SEC competition. More of the same here! 8* OVER the total in Mississippi

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #361/362 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Texas Tech Red Raiders vs TCU Horned Frogs @ Noon ET - It will be windy in Lubbock for this game but a lot of the Red Raiders passing attack is quick, short throws. Texas Tech has scored at least 34 points in 5 of its last 7 games. I know TCU has a good defense but the Red Raiders run a unique offense that is know for giving the Horned Frogs trouble. At the same time, Texas Tech is catching TCU off of a deflating loss to Oklahoma which could zap the Horned Frogs defense of a lot of the enthusiasm they were playing with earlier this season. One thing is for certain, the Horned Frogs should have no trouble putting up big points on this Red Raiders defense. I know the scoreboard shows that Texas Tech only allowed 24 points last week but their defense was damn lucky in that game as Baylor piled up over 500 yards of offense. The Red Raiders won't be able to stop TCU as the Horned Frogs have shown in earlier games this season that they are fully capable of putting up big yardage against weaker defenses and Texas Tech has one of the worst in the nation. The over is 9-5 when the Red Raiders play a team with a winning record and they are 46-26 to the over when they are off of a win in conference action. TCU has been an under team but the posted total in their match-up with TT the last two seasons was in the 83.5 to 87.5 range. Of course it needed to drop this season but this one has fallen way too far and the markets have over-adjusted. The result is line value for us. 8* OVER the total in Texas Tech

Big Ten Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #415 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Wisconsin Badgers @ Noon ET - The Badgers deserve plenty of credit for their 10-0 start but they've had a lot of help from the schedule-makers this season. This will prove to be their toughest test yet and, though they've clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game, Wisconsin is playing with unbeaten pressure as they're hoping to keep their CFB playoff hopes alive. The Badgers schedule has been so favorable that this is the first time this season that they are not favored by double digits! Keep in mind, this is even though they are at home for this game so that tells you a lot right there. The Badgers did beat Northwestern but they did not cover and only totaled 306 yards of offense in that game. Wisconsin also beat Iowa last week but they were fortunate as the Hawkeyes had just had the huge upset win of Ohio State the prior week and, as expected, Iowa came out completely flat against Wiscy last week. While the Badgers offense certainly rates better than the Wolverines, the defenses of Michigan is just as good as that of Wisconsin. Also, the Wolverines have faced a slightly tougher schedule than the Badgers this season. The pressure is on Wisconsin here and I am expecting the upset win for Michigan but will certainly grab the generous points. Even though this is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Wolverines, they are actually 5-1 ATS L6 in that situation. Also, Michigan is 6-1 ATS as a dog off of an ATS win by a double digit margin. Also, the Badgers are off of B2B ATS wins for the first time this season. The Wolverines also enter off of B2B ATS wins. That puts into play another solid system here as Wisconsin is 0-7 ATS when off of back to back SU/ATS wins and facing an opponent off of back to back SU/ATS wins! Also, the Badgers are only 1-7 ATS when they are favored by more than 5 points in Big Ten action against a team that has a winning percentage of .601 or more. 10* MICHIGAN 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 8 ET - Both teams need a win to become bowl eligible but, while the Blue Raiders have an easy home game on deck versus Old Dominion, the Hilltoppers have a very tough road game at Florida International on deck. In other words, Western Kentucky knows they need to get the job tonight at home and I'll gladly grab them as a home dog here. The Hilltoppers have won 6 straight home finales. Also, even though QB Stockstill is back for MTSU, he is only 31 of 61 in his first two games since coming back. Making those numbers even more concerning is the fact that he faced UTEP and Charlotte and those two teams are a combined 1-19 and certainly are the bottom feeders of CUSA. As for Western Kentucky, their passing attack has been rolling for many weeks now. Over their last 5 games, the Hilltoppers have completed 66% of their passes and averaged 381.8 passing yards per game! I am well aware of the fact that WKU has lost 3 straight but they faced a pair of CUSA teams that are a combined 10-2 in conference action this season and their other game was against Vanderbilt, an SEC foe! Even with a tough season the Hilltoppers are still 20-4 SU and 16-8 ATS in conference action the past 3 seasons combined and they'll bounce back big in this crucial game tonight. As for the Blue Raiders, they are 2-7 ATS (and 1-8 SU) in games with a line between +3 and -3 the past three seasons combined. Middle Tennessee laying a field goal here is simply a case of them being over-valued! I'll look for the home dog to notch their 7 straight home finale victory. 8* WESTERN KENTUCKY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:25 ET - The Steelers have a number of edges here. With this being a short week it certainly helps to have the home field edge. Pittsburgh also has played a tougher strength of schedule here. I also am not convinced that Titans QB Mariota is in great shape just yet in terms of his injuries. The concern for Tennessee here is that the Steelers pass rush could definitely wreak havoc on him. The play in the trenches is a big key as to why I am willing to lay the full TD with Pittsburgh here. The Titans are the worst team in the league in terms of generating sacks. Tennessee also rates only in the middle of the pack in terms of pass protection. As for the Steelers, they are up near the top of the NFL for both generating QB pressure and for pass protection. Overall, the Pittsburgh defense is up among the best squads in the NFL. The Titans D ranks only in the middle of the pack. Certainly the Steelers under-performed at Indianapolis last week but they were likely peeking ahead to this match-up with a fellow division leader. Pittsburgh is on a 10-4 ATS run as a non-divisional home favorite while Tennessee is on a 7-15 ATS run as a road dog. The Titans are coached by Mike Mularkey and, as a dog off of a SU win he has a 2-9 ATS record versus a non-division opponent. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the Steelers have excelled historically as they have gone 63-17 SU and 50-30 (63%) ATS! 8* PITTSBURGH

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Thursday CFB 8* OVER the total in South Florida Bulls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7:30 ET - Tulsa has recorded 6 unders in their last 7 games but those results have defied logic because the Golden Hurricane defense is one of the worst in the nation while the offense, statistically, rates in the top 40 in the nation. This is helping to offer some line value here because, arguably, this total could be much higher. The weather will be perfect tonight in Tampa and both teams come into this game with fresh legs off of a bye. Also, South Florida ranks as a top ten offense in the nation. While it is true that the Bulls also have a very strong defense, I am confident that USF can't help but be peeking ahead to their huge showdown with Central Florida coming up next Friday. The result of that will be a performance on defense tonight that is not as intense as what one might otherwise expect but the powerful offense of the Bulls can carve right through the weak defense of the Golden Hurricane in their sleep. The result is that this one should fly over the total. South Florida is averaging 88 plays per game at home and Tulsa is averaging 77 plays per game on the road. Both of those stats rank these teams among the fastest in the nation in term of pace on offense. That, of course, also helps an over. The Golden Hurricane have thrown for an average of 248 passing yards in their last 3 road games. Their ground game averages 249 yards per game on the season. The Bulls offense averages 39 ppg and 502 ypg. The over is 4-1 in USF home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 8* OVER the total in South Florida

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday CFB 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian. The key reason to be a contrarian is because one must recognize and respect that the odds makers are smart. This game is a text book example of that because, remember, the goal of the odds maker is to balance the action. That said, the very first lines that game out on this game were pick'ems. Since then the line has been driven all the way up to a 3.5 in most spots as of early game day morning. Considering that Miami-Ohio is at home and needs to win out to become bowl eligible and also has defeated Eastern Michigan NINE straight times by an average margin of a DOZEN points per game, isn't it strange that the line opened up a pick'em? Exactly! The odds makers set it this way because they knew the public money would come in on the Redhawks here and they wanted to balance the sharp money coming in on the Eagles. You and I will be part of that sharp money. The Eagles have played the tougher schedule. They lost by double digits last week but that was a turnover-driven loss. The yardage stats were very nearly equal! Eastern Michigan has one of the best defenses in the MAC. Again, last week's ugly loss at Central Michigan was keyed by 5 turnovers. Each of the Eagles 3 prior losses were by 3 points or less and the loss to the Chippewas was their first loss this season by more than 7 points. The Eagles are highly motivated here because the Redhawks have had series dominance in this match-up and Eastern Michigan's viewpoint is that if the Eagles aren't going to a bowl than Miami-Ohio isn't going either! I am grabbing the points here but fully expect the upset win. 8* EASTERN MICHIGAN

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 8* Akron Zips (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Zips are still alive in the MAC East race and take on the leader in the standings in this huge game. Not only that, Akron still needs a win to become bowl eligible and their season finale is next Tuesday. Suffice to say this is an ultra-important game for the Zips and coach Terry Bowden has said his team has been fired up from the start of the very first practices for the new "football week" heading into this match-up. Akron is excited to host the MAC East leader and we're getting line value here due to the Zips QB situation. I am well aware of the disciplinary issues against QB Thomas Woodson and the resulting suspension. However, even though he may be out again tonight, back-up QB Kato Nelson actually played quite well despite being under constant pressure last week at Miami-Ohio. The Redhawks have a solid defense (one of the best in the MAC based on yardage allowed) and Nelson did complete 19 of 38 for over 200 yards and a touchdown while battling through six sacks. Look for a better effort from the Zips offensive line in this one and, for that matter, from the entire team as they are fired up about hosting Ohio University with the ESPN cameras rolling tonight. No doubt the Bobcats are the better team here but they truly are over-priced and the Zips are catching them off of that massive win over Toledo (Rockets were last undefeated team in conference action in MAC). Akron has the edge here too in terms of facing an overall tougher schedule this season. Also, short week for Ohio U as they played on Wednesday last week while the Zips played last Tuesday. The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, the Bobcats are 2-9 ATS when off of back to back SU wins and facing an opponent off of a SU loss. Ohio University is 3-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points after scoring more than 35 points the prior week. That means we have combined angles of 21-6 ATS in favor of the Zips. 8* AKRON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:30 ET - The Dolphins did have a recent road win (at Atlanta) when the Falcons were clearly caught looking ahead to their Super Bowl rematch game with the Patriots. Other than that win (which was attributable to Atlanta's lookahead), Miami has struggled badly on the road. In the Dolphins other 3 games played away from home since late September, they lost all 3 by a combined score of 60 to 6 - an average margin of defeat of 18 points per game. They lost 20-6 to the Jets in New York, 20-0 to the Saints in London, and 40-0 to the Ravens in Baltimore. Suffice to say the Dolphins have been consistent away from home and it certainly has been a negative consistency. Both teams have played many weeks in a row but the Panthers do have their bye week on deck while the Dolphins lost their bye week do to the hurricane canceling their season opener this year. With that said, even though Carolina is off of a big win over division rival Atlanta, the Panthers are going to go hard here in their final game before the bye week. Carolina's most recent primetime game was that Thursday night loss versus the front-running Eagles last month. They now take on a much lesser foe in primetime action and they look to atone for that defeat. The Panthers are also certainly well aware of the fact that both the Saints and Falcons won yesterday so every win that Carolina can get right now is critical to stay in the hunt in the NFC South. The Panthers have home field edge here and they are the #1 defense in the league taking on the league's worst offense. The Dolphins will find points tough to come by in this one and Carolina, though not an offensive juggernaut, has scored 17 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Dolphins are averaging 2 (just TWO) points per game in their last 3 games away from home. That said, the Panthers, thanks to their tremendous defense, shouldn't have to score much to get the cover here even though this is a big number. Look for Carolina to win this by double digits. Remember that the Dolphins had a VERY fortunate ATS push last week when they scored a TD and a 2 point conversion VERY late to lose by just 3 as a 3-point dog versus Oakland. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS off of a divisional game and 12-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Look for the Dolphins to drop to 5-9 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* OVER the total in Denver vs New England @ 8:30 ET - This total keeps moving down and is now as low as a 44 as of early Sunday morning. I know the Broncos have a good defense overall and I know their yardage allowed stats haven't been as bad the past two weeks as the points allowed. However, when you give Patriots coach Bill Belichick an extra week to prepare and when he gets to watch how Denver allowed 51 points at Philly last week, you better believe he's got some good "wrinkles" in his offensive game plan tonight. The Patriots come into this game rested and ready and their offense has produced 302 passing yards per game on the season! The Pats are averaging 444 yards of offense per game on the road this season. The weather will be clear and cool in Denver this evening with light winds. A perfect night for offenses to fully execute their playbooks. The Broncos Brock Osweiler will be better in his 2nd start back as the game at Philly was his first start. The Denver offense has been hurt by turnovers and that has caused a lack of points. The Broncos are actually averaging 231.5 passing yards per game their lat 4 games. Denver also has run for at least 140 yards in 3 of their 4 home games this season. The offensive line lost Menelik Watson to injury this week but they also have other offensive linemen on the injury report that are now listed as probable and ready to go this week. The Broncos have been challenged and I expect their offense to respond here after last week's blowout loss. However, I don't foresee the Denver D as being able to slow down Tom Brady and company in this one! The over is 3-1 when the Patriots are off of a bye week. The over is 111-66 when the Broncos are playing a team with a winning record, 39-16 in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points, and 5-1 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points! 8* OVER the total in Denver

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Ezekiel Elliott situation was a huge distraction for the Cowboys but at least he ended up playing. Now, this week, it's different! It looks like the situation finally is resolved and, not only is he not playing this week, he is likely out until Christmas Eve. This is casting a dark cloud over the Cowboys right now and the last thing they need is to be on the road and facing the defending NFC champs who are angry as they come off of a stretch that has seen them lose 4 of their last 5. The Falcons are on an 0-5 ATS run but this is a great spot to back them. They ougained the Panthers in their loss at Carolina last week and they have plenty of confidence when it comes to facing the Cowboys. In their last meeting, in Dallas, the Cowboys were up 28-17 at the half but the Falcons won the 2nd half 22-0. Between October 15th and November 26th, this is Atlanta's one and only home game! In other words, you can absolutely bank on a strong effort from the Falcons here especially since they are off of rare back to back losses in their two most recent home games (even though Atlanta ougained the opposition in each game). The Cowboys are on an 0-5 ATS run against NFC South teams the past two seasons. Dallas is also on a 9-18 ATS run in games played on turf. The Falcons are 4-1 SU against NFC East opposition the past two years and laying just 3 here is a great value! The Cowboys running game will be hurt by Elliott's absence and the Falcons have the much better passing game! 10* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Titans have won 3 straight games but they've been outgained in each of the last two games (each of those being wins by just 3 points apiece). Also, Tennessee is off of a tough game versus the physical Ravens and has another tough match-up (with the physical Steelers) on deck. There is no sugarcoating anything about Cincinnati. The Bengals have not been playing well and they've failed to cover 3 straight games. However, Cincy had won 3 of 4 prior to the loss at Jacksonville last week and that still gives them enough confidence to bounce back after the loss to the Jaguars and I feel they will do just that. The Bengals only scored 7 points in last week's defeat at the hand of the Jags and Cincinnati is 6-1 (86%) ATS when off of a game where they were held to less than 10 points. Tennessee, entering this season, was 1-10 ATS when facing a non-divisional opponent off of a SU loss by more than 10 points. That system fits here as the Bengals were crushed by 16 points last week. The Titans upcoming game against the Steelers is on Thursday night and that is also significant here as Tennessee knows they have a short week to prepare for another physical, tough match-up. I would not be surprised to see the Titans overlook the Bengals given this situation and, in fact, Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in their game before a Thursday game! 8* CINCINNATI

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Jaguars are off of back to back wins but they faced a pair of teams (Bengals and Colts) that are a combined 6-11 this season. I know the Chargers also have a similar unimpressive record but Los Angeles comes into this game off of their bye week and they had won 3 of 4 games heading into their bye. Also, the Chargers first 4 losses this season featured 3 by a field goal or less! Another big difference in terms of the challenge the Jaguars will face today is at the QB position. They faced Indianapolis without Luck and they faced a Cincinnati team that has been having major issues at the signal-caller position. Now they face a Rivers-led Chargers team that has a much better passing attack than those two teams. I am aware that Jacksonville's pass defense has been rock solid this season but Rivers and company come back from the bye week with fresh legs and ready to attack. The Chargers are averaging 244 passing yards per game and are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Jags. Jacksonville is an ugly 4-14 ATS when they are a home favorite against a non-divisional foe. The Chargers are on a 6-2 ATS run when on the road and facing a non-divisional opponent with a winning percentage above .600 and that system fits here. Also, the Jaguars are 0-10 ATS when they are at home, playing with revenge, and off of a double digit ATS cover. That system fits here as well! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #216 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Wildcats vs Oregon State Beavers @ 10 ET - The Beavers have been a different team since the coaching change. The losses have continued but they've been more competitive and, keep in mind, they put up 569 yards against Colorado and Arizona's defense is arguably in the same class as that of the Buffaloes. The problem for the Beavers is also defense as other than a game played in poor weather versus Stanford, Oregon State has allowed an average of 51 points per game in their 5 Pac-12 games since mid-September. The Wildcats dynamic offense (46 points per game last 5) will have no problem here but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Arizona has allowed 40.4 points per game their last 5 games and all 5 games have gone over the total. I am not about to go against that trend as the Wildcats were gouged both on the ground and through the air versus USC last week. The fact is that Oregon State will find some success one way or the other against a Cats defense that hasn't allowed less than 30 points in any of their conference games. Don't let the big number scare you here as the over is actually 5-1 when Arizona is at home with a posted total of 70 points or more. Also, the over is 10-2 the last 12 times the Wildcats have been in the favorite's role. The Beavers are 3-1 to the over on the road this season and Oregon State is 5-2 to the over in road games where they are a dog of 17.5 to 21 points. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #172 Saturday 10* Northwestern Wildcats (-) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 7 ET - Purdue's starting QB David Blough got hurt in the win versus Illinois last weekend and is out for the season. Boilermakers back-up signal-caller Elijah Sindelar will be under center today and the sophomore has 3 interceptions and no touchdowns in his two Big 10 road games this season and one of those was against Rutgers! That doesn't bode well for Sindelar here as he faces a Wildcats team that is rolling with momentum right now. Conventional wisdom says to fade a team off of an OT win but Northwestern is simply on fire right now as they've won 4 straight games and each of the last 3 have been in overtime! The Wildcats are a team on a mission right now and they've blasted Purdue by a combined 66-31 the last two years! Northwestern and the Boilermakers have each faced Wisconsin and Nebraska and if you look at the stats from those two games you will see that the Wildcats fared much better than Purdue. They are truly an under-valued home fave here and I am not about to get in front of the freight train especially with Sindelar getting the start for the Boilermakers here. Look for the Cats to take this one by double digits. 10* NORTHWESTERN

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #163 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Louisville Cardinals @ 3:30 ET - All 3 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less - average margin of 5.3 points. With the Cardinals opening up as a double digit fave and then moving even higher (now favored by a dozen) I'll gladly get involved with the Cavaliers here. Simply put, it just wasn't the Cardinals season. Yes they are off of their bye week but no matter what they do the rest of the way they know they will have underachieved expectations. Conversely, Virginia is making good strides in Bronco Mendenhall's 2nd season and there is also some solid technical support for this play. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS when they are on the road off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. That lone loss in that system just happened when they got annihilated by Pittsburgh by a final score of 31-14 but that one truly was a "phony final" as the Cavs actually outgained the Panthers in that game. Riding the momentum of last week's win over Georgia Tech, QB Benkert and company can have another big game here. The Cardinals defense has struggled this season including allowing a ridiculous 519.5 yards per game in conference action. With just a 2-4 record in ACC action, Louisville is mentally fatigued at this point in the season while the Cavaliers are riding the momentum of their best season since 2011 (which is also their last bowl appearance). Give me the big points in this one! 8* VIRGINIA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #155 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Noon ET from AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - This neutral site game is always good for a ton of points. The point totals from the last 7 meetings here have ranged between 83 and 108 points with most games finishing in the high 80s or 90s. Even though Baylor's offense is not what I used to be in their big years from 2011 to 2015, they still have plenty of athletes at the skill positions and can put up big points against sub-par defenses. They scored 38 against Kansas and 36 against West Virginia in recent games. Also, what adds to the value with this total only in the 70 range is that many are looking at Baylor's drop-off on offense from the "big years" but, keep in mind, this Bears defense has also fallen considerably. From 2013 to 2015 they allowed an average of 379 yards per game. This season Baylor's defense is allowing 480 yards per game and that's even after a rare strong performance last week as they faced a Kansas team that is the worst offense in the Big 12. The Bears had allowed 43.4 points per game in their 5 games prior to facing the Jayhawks. Off of their first win of the season and with a strong game from QB Charlie Brewer, the Bears are confident again on offense and now facing one of the Big 12's worst defenses. Of course the Baylor defense is right there with Texas Tech in terms of worst defenses in the Big 12 and that's why this one has "over" written all "over" it. The Red Raiders have averaged 42.3 points per game in their last 3 road games. 8* OVER the total in the Baylor/TT match-up at AT & T Stadium EARLY Saturday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Temple Owls @ 7 ET - Since Frank Nutile has come in at QB for the Owls the offense has been much improved. Nutile has 5 TDs and just 1 INT plus a 71% completion percentage in his two starts. The weather will be cold in Cincinnati tonight but no precipitation plus light winds means both offenses should operate freely here. The Bearcats are very poor in terms of pass defense and the Owls have averaged 30 points per game their last 4 games with 319.5 passing yards per game in those 4 contests. Cincinnati only scored 17 points in last week's win at Tulane but the Bearcats actually totaled 456 yards in that game. Also, in their last two home games the Cats have averaged 414.5 yards per game. On the season Cincinnati is averaging 24.5 points per game at home. The Bearcats pass defense is allowing 300.7 yards per game in their last 3 home games. The Temple defense is allowing 28.3 points per game in their last 3 games. The long-term trends here will NOT point to an over but the way these two teams have been playing of late has displayed much improved offense and weakness on defense. That said, I'll happily take advantage of the low total posted here. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:25 ET - The Seahawks are fired up after a home loss to the Redskins. Seattle did outgain Washington by 193 yards in the defeat! Arizona is off of a win but it came against the 0-9 Niners. In fact, two of the Cardinals 4 wins have come against win-less San Francisco and the other two wins came against the 2-6 Buccaneers and 3-6 Colts! Seattle is 6-2 ATS in games played between weeks 10 and 13 the past two seasons combined. Arizona is on a 3-7 ATS run as an underdog and 3-13 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals are also on an 0-10 ATS run when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less! Arizona is also 0-6 ATS in Thursday games versus teams with a winning record. Seattle is on a 7-0 ATS run in Thursday games. That means we have a combined edge of 23-0 ATS favoring the revenge-minded Seahawks in this one. They lost at home to the Cardinals in their most recent meeting on Christmas Eve last year. Time for payback Thursday. 8* SEATTLE

TV Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Northern Illinois Huskies vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - The Huskies are fired up after a loss at Toledo last week and they certainly should be able to "pour it on" against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 51.2 points per game in its last 5 games. In 4 of those 5 games, Ball State allowed at least 55 points. The total on this game is currently in the low 50s so there is good value here. That's because as bad as the Cardinals have been, they have faced solid defense the past two weeks and yet they did score at least 14 points each game. So I look for a 45-14 type game here (at least) and one that should easily fly over the total. It will be cold in DeKalb, Illinois this evening but no precipitation and the gusty afternoon winds are expected to be dying down by the time this one kicks off. The over is 5-1 in Ball State's last 6 games and the over was 2-0 in the Huskies previous 2 games before they lost at Toledo. In those two games Northern Illinois averaged 39 points per game and the Huskies offense will certainly be back on track against a Cardinals defense that ranks 126th out of 130 teams in terms of scoring defense this season. The Cards are 4-1 to the over as an underdog of 31.5 points or more. Also, as a road dog of 21.5 or more points, Ball State is 9-3 to the over. The last 7 meetings between these teams have all totaled 55 points or more and the average points scored in those 7 games has been 72 points! Great value here with this total. 8* OVER the total in Northern Illinois

Wednesday Watch-n-Win - Rickenbach CFB 8* Toledo Rockets (-) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Rockets had won 12 in a row over the Bobcats before being upset as a two-TD favorite at home last season. Toledo hasn't forgotten that loss and is ready to avenge it here. Both of these teams have been winning this season but the Rockets have played the tougher schedule. Also, Toledo is averaging 100+ yards more in the passing game than the Bobcats are there will be light winds with no precipitation on a chilly evening in Athens tonight. That means the passing game can excel and Ohio U, other than games against Hampton (FCS team) and Kent State (worst offense in FBS), has allowed an average of 305 passing yards per game this season! Though the Bobcats beat Miami-Ohio last week the Redhawks were still without QB Gus Ragland. As for the other 3 wins Ohio U has in MAC action, they came against teams that are a combined 7-20 this season! Now the Bobcats take a big step up in terms of level of competition and 3 of the Rockets 5 wins in MAC games have come against teams that currently have an overall winning record. Those 3 wins all came by double digit margins too and averaged a 19 point margin of victory! Toledo is on an 8-1 ATS run as a road fave. This line has dropped all the way down to 3.5 and, as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, the Rockets are a long-term 31-16 ATS! As for Ohio U., prior to back to back home covers against the wounded Redhawks and deplorable Golden Flashes, they had been on a 2-5 ATS run in home games versus FBS foes. They are again being over-valued here and I'll gladly fade the line move here as this line had opened up in the 7 range! 8* TOLEDO ROCKETS 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 8* OVER the total in Miami-Ohio Redhawks vs Akron Zips @ 7:30 ET - There is rain expected in Oxford, OH through the morning hours Tuesday. However, by the time this one kicks in the evening it will simply be overcast with light winds. It will be cold but certainly not frigid and both offenses will certainly be able to operate at full efficiency. Couple that with the fact that starting Redhawks starting QB Gus Ragland is likely to be back tonight and you have a good set-up for the over in this one. Last week Miami-Ohio was hurt by turnovers but back-up QB Billy Bahl did lead the Redhawks to 350 yards through the air. So even if Ragland doesn't go Tuesday night the odds are good for a strong performance from the Miami-Ohio offense in this one. The concern for the Redhawks is a defense that has allowed an average of 33 points per game in their last 5 games. During this stretch Miami-Ohio has allowed an average of 410 yards per game. The Zips also have concerns on defense as they have been fortunate to allow only 25 points per game considering they are surrendering 444 yards per game. 8 of Akron's 9 games this season have stayed under the total but this is truly a statistical anomaly and I expect that trend to reverse here. The Zips have thrown for nearly 300 yards in each of their past two games and I expect another strong performance through the air here against a suspect Redhawks defense. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when Miami-Ohio allows more than 21 points and Akron comes into this game averaging 24.2 points per game in conference action. The Redhawks defense proves leaky again but their offense enjoys a resurgence tonight at home and that results in a bit of a shootout in this one. 8* OVER the total in Miami-Ohio

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (-) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - First off I just want to note that the Lions are such a small favorite here that I would recommend taking the money line if you have access to it. Now, onto the analysis: The Packers have won 25 of the last 26 meetings between these division rivals at Lambeau Field. That said, how can the Lions possibly be favored here? Think about that for a second before you answer! Do you think the odds makers are stupid? The fact is that Detroit with Matthew Stafford at QB is a much better offense than Green Bay with Brett Hundley at QB. Hundley was simply disastrous in his first start other than his running ability (which you can bet the Lions will be focused on here). Hundley did not look comfortable in the pocket, had poor timing with his throws, held on the ball too long (including one time on a strip-sack where GB got the ball back) and he completed only 12 of 25 passes for 79 yards! As for the Lions, they come in with Stafford having thrown for an average of 346 yards per game their past two games. That included a game at New Orleans and yes that is the same team that the Packers just hosted and the Saints outgained the Packers by over 200 yards! Green Bay is simply a much different team without Aaron Rodgers at QB. This is not just a minor drop-off, this is a major drop-off in terms of the 2nd man up at QB for GB. By the way, that lone win that the Lions have had at Lambeau over the past quarter-century did come just 2 years ago so that does help the confidence factor here.  I know the Packers are off of a bye week and that allowed extra time to work with Hundley but his pocket presence is a major concern and Green Bay is one of the worst teams in the league in terms of pass protection. In terms of trending, the Lions are 6-1 SU and ATS in November games the past two seasons while the Packers are a surprising 2-7 SU and ATS the past two years in November games. Detroit's weakness on defense is the pass D but Hundley won't be able to take advantage and the Lions are very solid against the run (ranked 7th in the league). The point is that Green Bay's game-plan tonight is likely to be very run-dominated in their offensive attack tonight and that plays right into the hands of the Lions here! Also, look for Stafford to carve up a Packers pass defense that has allowed 73.5% pass completions their last 6 games with average passing yards given up of 237.8 per game. 10* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (-) @ Miami Dolphins @ 8:30 ET - This is the time of the season where it generally pays to invest in teams that have under-achieved but are still poised to make a move. The Raiders certainly fit the bill as that type of team. Oakland already beat Kansas City this season and they still have another game against the Chiefs coming up so the Raiders are still very much "alive" in the AFC West. While it looks like Oakland just got blasted at Buffalo last week, the Raiders actually outgained the Bills but were done in by turnovers in the 34-14 loss. Oakland has a bye week on deck so they're certainly going to go "all out" here and I'll take Derek Carr over Jay Cutler any day of the week! Yes, Cutler is due back for the Dolphins this week but the QB has aveaged 136 passing yards in his last 4 starts. Carr worked out the kinks in his first start back from injury when he faced the Chiefs a few weeks ago. Since that start he has had two more starts and has averaged 365 passing yards per game! You can see that's nearly triple what Cutler has produced. The Dolphins have the worst offense in the NFL and they simply won't be able to keep up here. I know Miami has a solid defense but the Raiders defense, for the most part, has played well this season. They had 2 sub-par efforts - against the Redskins and Chiefs - but the Dolphins offense is not comparable to those two offenses. That said, in Oakland's other 6 games this season they have allowed an average of just 326 yards per game! The Dolphins poor performance on offense last week was the 4th time in their last 6 games that they have been held to 225 yards or less of TOTAL offense! The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. 8* OAKLAND

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - The Redskins are only 3-4 on the season but 2 of the losses came to the NFL's hottest team, the Eagles. The other two losses came against the Cowboys and Chiefs. That means the 3 teams the Skins have lost to have a combined record of 16-6. As for the Seahawks, yes they are an impressive 5-2 on the season but 3 of the 5 wins came against the Niners, Giants, and Colts. Those teams are a combined 3-20 this season! Seattle's other two wins came against the Texans and Rams. Houston actually has a losing record this season and the Rams only lost to the Seahawks because of 5 turnovers. LA actually outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game! The point is that this match-up is set up perfectly this week in terms of value because, right now, the Redskins are vastly under-valued and the Seahawks are greatly over-valued. Seattle gave up over 500 yards to Houston last week. This is not the same Seahawks teams of their dominant years. Yes they are 5-2 this season but the schedule has been kind to them and now they face a much tougher test. The Redskins know that if they're going to make a push it must start now. Washington lost to Seattle in Jay Gruden's first season here as head coach, in 2014. Payback is on order here and the Redskins are 18-8 ATS when on rest of 6 days or less between games. Seahawks off of the emotional late fourth quarter win over the Texans last week where they expended a ton of energy in a valiant effort. In front of them, Seattle also has a short week to prepare for a divisional match-up Thursday at Arizona. 10* WASHINGTON

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New York Giants (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 1 ET - The Giants are coming off of their bye week and, prior to that, they did lose to Seattle as a 4 point home dog. However, previous to that defeat, the Giants were on a 5-0 ATS run as a home dog of 4 points or more. Now, fresh off of a bye week and hosting a Rams team that, though also off of a bye week, is off of a big divisional win over the Cardinals in London, New York is in a good situational spot here. Los Angeles is 2-5 SU (and ATS) when off of a win over a division rival. While it is true that the Giants already have 6 losses on the season, they haven't thrown in the towel yet! They have some injury issues but the bye week certainly did them some good and the Giants know that, with a win, it means every potential wild card team in the NFC would already have at least 3 losses. Also, New York has another winnable game (facing win-less San Francisco) on deck. So don't count out the Giants just yet. They've gone 6-2 ATS in November games the past two seasons and they are looking to make a push here in the 2nd half of their season. This is a perfect spot to back them against an over-confident Rams team that is likely to overlook them. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS 

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Ravens Joe Flacco is now listed as probable for this game and Baltimore's spirits have also been bolstered by the 40-0 win over Miami last week. Statistically that win was not as impressive as the final score but the fact is that Ravens defense certainly answered the call. Keep in mind, Baltimore has now allowed an average of only 285 yards per game their last 4 games. Even though the Titans are off of their bye week, the Ravens game last week was on Thursday so they're well-rested too. Also, the concern for Tennessee here is that they are facing a tough defense and the Titans offense has been rather anemic of late. Yes, Tennessee had a big game against Indianapolis but the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Other than destroying Indy, the Titans other 3 games since September went into the books have seen Tennessee average only 217.3 yards of total offense per game! The Titans are on a 2-7 ATS run in November games and also Tennessee is on a 1-5 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore is 4-2 ATS against AFC teams this season and 6-2 SU in November games the past two years. More of the same here! 8* BALTIMORE

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - At first glance this looks like a mismatch as the 2-5 Bucs are on the road at the 5-2 Saints. New Orleans has won 5 straight games (both SU and ATS) while Tampa has lost 4 straight games (SU) and is on a win-less (0-5-1) stretch ATS! As the saying goes...on any given Sunday...and in this case it looks like an upset could be in the offing here! The Saints defense looks much improved but, keep in mind, 3 of their last 4 games have been against offensively-challenged opponents! Miami and Chicago are two of the worst teams in the league on offense. Also New Orleans faced the Packers after Aaron Rodgers was hurt. Everyone knows Green Bay's offense is hurting badly without Rodgers! So what has the Saints D done in their other 4 games this season? They've allowed 29 points per game and 415 yards per game! In other words, I am not sold on the Saints D just yet! Now that New Orleans D faces a Bucs passing attack that is averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game. Certainly Tampa Bay's defense has struggled at times this season but turnovers by the offense certainly has put the Bucs D in bad spots at times. The fact is that the Saints have forced opponents into more than 1 turnover in just 2 of their 7 games. I don't expect the Buccaneers to be impacted by turnovers here. In fact they may end up on the right side of the turnover battle here as they've forced 6 turnovers in their last 4 games and the Saints have turned the ball over 7 times in their last 3 games. Each of the last 6 meetings have been decided by no more than 7 points and we're getting great line value with this one at 7 points. Also, the Bucs lost 17-3 versus Carolina last week and that is noteworthy here as TB is 11-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points when they're off of a games where they were held under 10 points! Also, Saints head coach Sean Payton has a 2-13 ATS mark when favored off of a non-divisional game and now facing a divisional opponent playing with revenge. The Bucs are looking at avenge December's loss at New Orleans! Also, the Saints are an ugly 2-16 ATS when they are at home in divisional action and facing an opponent that lost their prior game by double digits compared to the spread. That system is also in play here and I look for the Buccaneers to be in this one all the way and to either spring the upset or lose by 6 or less. 10* TAMPA BAY

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #375/376 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in SMU Mustangs vs UCF Golden Knights @ 7:15 ET - First off just want to mention that I am fully aware of the "baby on the way" situation for 42-year old head coach Scott Frost. Central Florida's offense will not be stopped here however. They are one of the most efficient offenses in the nation as they averaged nearly 8 yards per play! Also, the Golden Knights have scored an average of 51 points per game this season. The Mustangs defense is a definite weakness as they have allowed 297 passing yards per game their last 7 games and 253 rushing yards per game their last 3 games. Will UCF get 550 yards of offense here? It would not surprise at all as they are averaging 530 yards per game this season! The key to the over here is that SMU is also a big time offensive juggernaut. They're averaging 41.5 points per game and 507.4 yards per game this season. The Mustangs are a true "run and gun" type team and their average of 76.3 plays per game on offense ranks them in the top 20 in the nation for "fastest paced" offenses. Central Florida is 20-12 to the over as a road favorite and I expect another one here. The Mustangs want this game badly but they're only chance is to "out-gun" the Golden Knights. SMU's defense is a weakness and they won't be able to stop UCF. That means Southern Methodist will really have to "push the pace" on offense which they are certainly known for doing at home! They've averaged 48.6 points per game at home this season. With great weather (unseasonably warm) in Dallas, this one will turn into a high-scoring shootout. 10* OVER the total in SMU

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #421 Saturday 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Washington State Cougars @ 3:30 ET - This is a big-time revenge game for the Cardinal as they were embarrassed 42-16 at Stanford by the Cougars last season. The weather for this one in Pullman, WA actually favors the Cardinal. Washington State likes to throw the ball a lot (84 pass attempts last week!) and the weather is expected to be right around freezing with light snow showers this afternoon. That means the physical Stanford ground game could certainly be the key. The Cardinal are known for being physical on both sides of the ball and having RB Bryce Love (listed as probable now) back for this game is a big plus. The Cougars allowed 310 rushing yards (and 9.1 yards per carry!) at Arizona last week. Washington State also is playing a 10th straight week! They finally have a bye after this game but, from a physicality standpoint, the Cougars are likely to struggle to match Stanford here. The Cardinal just had their bye two weeks ago and, in fact, seemed to "sleep-walk" out of their bye as they struggled (and were actually fortunate) to get by Oregon State last week! However, the Cardinal also were clearly looking ahead to this big revenge game and they'll take advantage of a Washington State team that is suddenly having issues at QB. Falk got benched but his back-up, Hilinksi, threw for a ton of yardage but threw 4 picks! Hilinski makes too many mistakes and Falk is an "over-thinker" and "perfectionist" which is the type of QB that is unlikely to respond well off of a benching. In other words, the Cougars recent struggles (have lost 2 of 3) continue here against a Cardinal team that has won 5 straight games! Washington State is 1-7 ATS as a home fave of less than 10 points when facing an opponent with revenge. Cougars also are 0-5 ATS as a favorite when they are off of a game where they scored more than 30 points and are now facing a team with a winning record. Combined 12-1 ATS spot favoring the Cardinal here. 10* STANFORD

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #348 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 3 PM ET - We're getting solid line value here because the Cavaliers are off of back to back ugly losses and the Yellow Jackets have been a covering machine this season. Also, Georgia Tech is off of a loss so many expect that they will bounce back here. However, this is truly a "sandwich spot" for the Jackets as they're off of a big game at Clemson and they have another big game, hosting Virginia Tech, on deck. That said, Georgia Tech may not be fully focused on this Cavaliers team and I am expecting Virginia to give them plenty of trouble here. Keep in mind that the last time the Cavs hosted the Jackets (in 2015) they got the outright upset win at home. Then, even though the Cavaliers lost last season's meeting at Georgia Tech, the Cavs actually outgained the Yellow Jackets by 88 yards and had a 25-8 edge in first downs! Suffice to say the 14 points loss for Virginia was a "phony final" and I expect the Cavaliers to again play very tough versus the Yellow Jackets. Part of the reason they fared so well against the Jackets (statistically) in last year's match-up is the fact that the Cavs are coached by Bronco Mendenhall who faced the option plenty of times during his tenure at BYU. that said, and with solid defensive personnel on hand this season, look for the Cavaliers to again enjoy success in slowing the Jackets run game. Last season Georgia Tech was held under 200 yards of rushing which is an accomplishment as, for example, this season GT averages 348 rushing yards per game. The Yellow Jackets are 0-3 ATS (and SU!) as a road favorite in recent seasons and an outright upset here would not surprise. However, I am certainly grabbing the generous points being offered. The Cavaliers are on a 6-2 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, the host in this series with Georgia Tech is on a 7-0 ATS run. Additionally, the Cavs are 5-0 ATS when off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and facing an opponent who is off of a SU loss! That system is in play here and means we have angles that are a combined 12-0 ATS in favor of the home dog here! 8* VIRGINIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #379 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Kansas State Wildcats @ Noon ET - The Red Raiders are off of back to back sub-par performances on offense but they faced a tough Iowa State defense in their most recent home game and Texas Tech was at Oklahoma last week. Now, back home and facing a weaker defense (Kansas State allowing 483.4 yards per game in Big 12 action), the Red Raiders are set to explode on offense. There is record warmth in Texas right now and the temperatures are unseasonably warm in Lubbock Saturday so both offenses will be able to fully execute here. That's good news for a Wildcats offense that coach Bill Snyder feels is functioning even better with Alex Delton at QB. It really wouldn't even matter so much who is at QB for this one as Kansas State takes on a Texas Tech defense that is one of the worst in the nation. The Red Raiders D is allowing 471 yards per game in their last 7 games. In terms of pace on offense the Wildcats are one of the slowest teams in the nation averaging just 60 plays on offense per game but, keep in mind, against Texas Tech there will be plenty of success with those plays! As for the Red Raiders, they average 76 plays on offense per game and they will be pushing the tempo here at home. The over is on a perfect 5-0 run in this series and I expect another one here. The over is an incredible 42-18 (70%) in Kansas State's November games. The over is 16-8 (67%) in Red Raiders home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points and this total has dropped as low as a 63 as of early gameday morning. 8* OVER the total in Texas Tech

Early Dominator - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6 ET - Of course the Thundering Herd would love nothing more than to knock off the last undefeated team in Conference USA action. However, the Owls have played a much tougher schedule than the Herd and this is what the betting markets appear to be overlooking as they continue to pound Marshall in this one. As of very early gameday morning this line has dropped all the way down from as high as double digits earlier in the week to just 6.5 in many spots. I am happy to lay the points here considering that Marshall's 3 wins in CUSA action came against teams that are a combined 6-17. When the Thundering Herd finally stepped up and faced tougher competition they lost by double digits to a Florida International team that is now 5-2 overall on the season. Also, that game against the Golden Panthers was at Marshall! Now the Herd are at a 5-3 Florida Atlantic team that is 5-3 overall on the season and 4-0 in CUSA action. Owls non-conference action included facing Wisconsin and in terms of CUSA games they've faced (and defeated) North Texas and Western Kentucky - each of those teams are 5-3 this season. Certainly Marshall has the better numbers on defense this season but, again, strength of schedule must be factored in. Also, in addition to the home field edge here, the Owls certainly have the much stronger offense in this match-up. Florida Atlantic is averaging 47.2 points per game their last 6 games. Marshall has won all 4 meetings with the Owls so payback is certainly on order here! The Thundering Herd are on a 2-5 ATS run in November games and could run out of gas here on a short week and playing their 4th road game in the past 6 weeks and dealing with the heat and humidity of South Florida. Payback time for the Owls! 8* FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:25 PM ET - The calendar says November but the weather certainly won't feel like it in East Rutherford, New Jersey Thursday. After a day where high temperatures get up into the 70s, it will be a mild evening with light winds and no precipitation. That means both offenses can have an "open playbook" here with no limitations. I realize the Bills don't give up a lot of points and certainly they deserve credit for creating a lot of turnovers too. However, the numbers don't lie and Buffalo has allowed over 300 yards passing in 3 straight games. In fact, the average passing yardage the Bills have allowed is 338 yards per game in those 3 games. The Jets are on a 5-0-1 ATS run at the betting window but, like Buffalo, they've been quite fortunate of late as well. New York has allowed an average of 271.5 passing yards per game in their last 4 games and yet only 2 of the 4 games went over the total. The Bills have completed 40 of 60 passes and scored an average of 32 points per game the last 2 weeks. The Jets have completed 74 of 107 passes for an average of 250 passing yards per game their last 3 games and you can see why I am expecting both teams to have success through the air in this one. Also, the over is 10-2 in Bills games played in weeks 5 through 9. Buffalo also is 14-4 to the over when they are the favorite in a match-up. Included in that is a perfect 3-0 over record when they are road fave of 3 points or less. The Jets are 4-1 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less. 8* OVER the total in New York Jets

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday CFB 10* OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - Navy has revenge from last year's meeting as they lost in the AAC Title game and that ruined their hopes of potentially playing in a New Year's Day bowl game. The Midshipmen offense, led by QB Zach Abbey (healed up thanks to bye) is ready to steamroll an Owls defense that has struggled with strong ground games. Temple has allowed 312 rushing yards to South Florida and 248 yards on the ground to Army. The good news for Owls fans though, even though Temple won't be able to stop the Navy triple option, is that the Owls aerial attack should enjoy plenty of success here. QB Frank Nutile is coming off of his first career start but gave a strong performance in place of the injured Logan Marchi. Nutile threw for nearly 300 yards and completed nearly 70% of his passes against the Army defense. The key here is Navy's pass defense is even worse than that of Army's. I know Navy is off of back to back unders and I know Temple has been an "under team" this season but this situation is perfect for an over. Great weather in Philly, Navy seeking revenge and wanting to rely on their offense to put a beating on the Owls, Temple's only option (since their D will struggle against the run) is to beat the Midshipmen through the air...all of this combines for what will surprise many as a shootout. The Owls do have some injuries on the offensive line but those have mostly healed up and they're ready to go here. Look for the over to improve to 7-1 in Navy's last 8 November games. 10* OVER the total in Temple 

Early Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday CFB 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 6 ET - Both these teams come into this game at 4-0 in conference action. However, the key is that the teams the Huskies have played entered this week with a combined overall record of 8-25 on the season! The Rockets have faced a couple of weak teams too but they also have faced two teams with overall winning records, Akron and Central Michigan, and Toledo won those games by a combined score of 78-31. Of course the betting markets are seeing a pair of teams undefeated in conference action and that have played to tight finishes in recent seasons and they're jumping all over the big dog here. That is why a game where the very first numbers to come up were double digits has been driven down to a 7.5 as of early gameday morning. I love to fade the masses and I think the Huskies are in for a "rude awakening" here as they finally are facing a tough MAC foe for the first time this season. The Rockets last 3 wins have all come by a margin of at least 20 points and Toledo is a long-term 30-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois had defeated the Rockets 6 straight times prior to last season's loss in this series. However, the Rockets aren't done getting revenge as they haven't beaten the Huskies in Toledo since the 2009 season! Payback is on order here and the Rockets offense (40.5 ppg, 520.6 ypg) will prove to be too much for the Huskies (27.9 ppg, 398.0 ypg). 8* TOLEDO

Wednesday Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan Broncos vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 8 ET - I am well aware of the fact that rain is expected in Kalamazoo, Michigan tonight. However, we're not talking downpours and also the FieldTurf at Western Michigan's Waldo Stadium does drain well. The rain is not expected to start until right around kick-off so there is also a chance (we all know how quickly weather forecasts can change) that it gets pushed back a little bit later and has even less impact here. However, even if it does hit "on time" it is not going to be super heavy and we're not talking about gusty winds here. Nothing too significant. Also, even though Broncos QB Jon Wassink is out for this game and Reece Goddard is a freshman QB making his first start, the run game is the key for Western Michigan. The Broncos are averaging 252 rushing yards per game and about 5 yards per carry in MAC games. Also, the Chippewas run defense allowed 246.6 yards per game in their 5 games prior to last week's shut down of a Ball State team that has one of the worst offenses in the nation. The very first total that popped up on this game was a 58.5 and, of course, as with all early numbers that was a "soft" number. However, that is telling you what the odds makers thought was "right" here and yet now on gameday morning the total is down in the 47 range. This is a huge drop and one I won't hesitate to take advantage of. As noted above, I understand the reasoning of the betting markets but the QB situation of the Broncos is not so impacting when you consider they are a run-heavy offense and the weather also is not that big of an issue tonight. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Central Michigan is 6-2 to the over. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Broncos are 6-0 to the over. 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan

ESPN Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 8* Miami (OH) Redhawks (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 8 ET - The Redhawks might get QB Gus Ragland back tonight. Even if he does not play Billy Bahl looked solid in his 3rd straight game under center as he led Miami to victory versus Buffalo last week. The Bobcats have the better record this season but Ohio U has played a weaker schedule and they also have big games on deck with Toledo and Akron. The Bobcats injury issues are mounting. With the loss of RT Jared McCray for this game and RG Durrell Wood already having been injured, the entire right side of Ohio's offensive line has been impacted. Also, two of their projected starters at WR are out for this game as Keevon Harris has been downgraded to being out for this game and they lost Elijah Ball for the year before the season even started. Also, before the season started they lost returning safety Mayne Williams to injury and now DE Sam McKnight is out for this game. Truly the Redhawks are the healthier team and QB Ragland had been eyeing this game for his return. I love having the points in a rivalry game like this and this is "The Battle of the Bricks". Miami is seeking revenge for having lost the past two meetings and scoring a total of just 10 points in those two games. It is payback time here and the win versus the Bulls last week certainly helps the confidence factor. The Redhawks have allowed 21 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games and have a solid defense. One of the two games where Miami allowed more than 21 was against Notre Dame and of course that was expected! Ohio U comes into this game off of a dominating win over Kent State but the Golden Flashes offensive production (thanks in part to QB injuries) has been a disaster. Prior to holding Kent to 3 points, the Bobcats allowed an average of 33.3 points per game in their 6 prior games. That said, it's tough to cover a big number when you're giving up big points and you have a rather mediocre offense. Ohio U has some big point totals this season but they had been held under 400 yards in 3 of their 6 prior games before exploding against a bad Golden Flashes team last week. The Redhawks D has held 6 of their 8 opponents under 362 yards this season! 8* MIAMI (OH)

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - Turnovers hurt badly in football and the Broncos have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their past two games. Keep in mind, Denver had started the season with a 3-1 record. Then they lost the winless Giants even though they outgained New York by a margin of 412 to 266. That was followed by a shutout loss (first for Broncos in 25 years) at Los Angeles last week against the Chargers. In that game Denver did outgain LA but they lost by 21 at the scoreboard. The point is that we're getting some solid line value this week with the Broncos at Kansas City because their results the past two weeks don't tell the full story. The fact is that Denver's defense ranks near the very top of the NFL while Kansas City's defense ranks near the very bottom of the NFL. Also, while the Chiefs seem to rate a huge edge on offense, a lot of the Broncos problems have been related to turnovers and missed opportunities. The way Denver has moved the ball ranks them in the middle of the league in terms of production on offense. The Broncos have won 7 of their last past 10 meetings with the Chiefs. Also, Kansas City enters this game off of a very tough last minute loss at Oakland last week. Not only are those defeats the toughest type to bounce back from, note that the Broncos are 12-2 ATS in divisional games when they are facing an opponent that is off of a loss (SU and ATS) in divisional action. That system fits here as the Chiefs were a 3-point fave at Oakland last week and lost outright to the Raiders. Also, KC is 1-9 ATS in their game after facing the Raiders. Last but certainly not least, the Chiefs are 1-8 ATS as a home fave in divisional action when they are off of a loss (SU and ATS) and facing an opponent off of a SU loss. I love the systems in play here in addition to the fact that I get an under-valued defense-minded divisional dog that is ready to explode with a strong game under the lights on Monday Night Football. 10* DENVER

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 8:30 ET - At first glance this seems like a tough spot for the Steelers. The Lions are coming in rested off of their bye week and Pittsburgh is off of back to back big wins as they knocked off the previously undefeated Chiefs two weeks ago and then the division rival Bengals last week. However, the Steelers are the play here for numerous reasons. One is that Pittsburgh already had their "wake up call" three weeks ago when they got embarrassed on their home filed by the Jaguars. The Steelers took it to heart and they've used that as their motivation going forward. Also, Pittsburgh does have their bye week on deck and when they return from the bye they face a bad Colts team. In other words, there is no doubt the Steelers are fully focused on the Lions in a big primetime game as Pittsburgh knows they can rest later. They certainly won't let up tonight. Keep in mind, the Steelers are the #1 defense in the league and that is thanks in large part to their success defending the pass. Everyone knows the NFL is now a passing-dominated league and a key to success is stopping the pass. The Lions, unlike the Steelers, rank in the bottom third of the league in pass defense. Additionally, Detroit is ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of offensive production while the Steelers are in the top third of the league. The Lions have given up 39.5 points per game in their past two games. Detroit's production on offense at home has also dropped with each game as the yardage has gone from 367 to 324 to 242. The Lions also are 1-12 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Also, when Detroit is off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and they're now facing a team that is off of a SU win, the Lions have gone 1-10 ATS! On deck for the Lions is a Monday night game at Green Bay and Detroit is on a 1-6 ATS run in their game before facing the Packers. Also, the Lions are just 1-4 ATS the game before a MNF game. The Steelers are 4-1 in games where they are a road favorite of 3 points or less and they are offering great value as a small fave here as they are fired up about staying hot and earning one more win before their bye week! 8* PITTSBURGH

NFC East Game of the Year - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the road team has covered 6 straight in this series. However, the Redskins have played the tougher schedule this season and the Cowboys are getting way too much respect as this line has continued to move in their direction all week long and now through early gameday morning as well. The fact is that Dallas has faced only 2 winning teams this season while the Redskins have faced only 2 losing teams so far this year. Also, the Cowboys are off of a win but have yet to win back to back games this season while the Redskins are off of a loss and have yet to lose back to back games this season. Also, the Cowboys did win both games over the Redskins last season. This is a huge rivalry and Washington is hungry for payback here. The Cowboys are off of a big win over the 49ers but of course San Francisco is a winless team this season. In fact, the 3 wins Dallas has this season have come against teams that are combined 4-17 on the season! The Redskins have played a tough schedule and 2 of their losses have been to the 6-1 Eagles. Also, Washington did beat Oakland by 17 and the Raiders are better than their record would indicate. Also, the Redskins knocked off a Rams team that is 5-2. Most all of you probably also remember the Washington primetime game at Kansas City where the Redskins clearly looked like the better team before suffering a tight loss that was much closer than what the final score indicates. That was a bad beat for Skins backers and Washington clearly could have won the game outright too! The situation here is also set up well even though the Redskins are on a short week. The Cowboys are 2-11 ATS in divisional games when they are a road favorite off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin and now facing an opponent who is off of a straight-up loss! The Redskins are a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are a home dog and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .401 or more. The Skins already knocked off the 2-0 Raiders with that same system in play earlier this season. 10* WASHINGTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Panthers are off of back to back losses but the first one came to the hottest team in the league, Eagles, and the second one saw Carolina lose despite holding the Bears to 153 yards of offense! Sometimes "fluke" games do happen and Chicago beat the Panthers 17-3 despite Carolina winning the yardage battle by 140 yards over the Bears. Suffice to say, the Panthers are fired up after back to back losses and they're ready to take out their frustration on a division rival. While Carolina is allowing only 261.9 yards per game (one of the top defenses in the league), Tampa Bay is allowing 408.5 yards per game and ranks as one of the worst defenses in the league. The Panthers are on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog. The Buccaneers are on a 2-9 ATS run as a home favorite. Also, the Panthers are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 meetings with Tampa Bay. 8* CAROLINA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1 ET - The Chargers shutout the Broncos last week but now they go from facing one the weaker offenses in the league at home to facing one of the best offenses in the league on the road. A key here for me was weather which is why I had to wait until gameday morning to release my plays. It looks good as rain and some wind are moving into the Foxboro area but that shouldn't take place until after this game is already in the books. With that said, both offenses should have the full playbooks available to them and the Patriots are averaging 300 passing yards per game! The problem for New England is they allow 310 passing yards per game and they now face a Chargers passing attack that has only truly been stopped by Denver this season. That said, the Broncos are one of the top defenses in the league. In LA's 5 games not played against Denver this season, the Chargers have averaged 282.4 passing yards per game. Now facing a "suspect" Pats defense, you can see why I am expecting Los Angeles to match New England score for score in this one. The over is 3-1 in Patriots home games this season and 2-1 in Chargers road games this year. As a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, LA is 8-2 to the over! In a home game with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Patriots are 7-1 to the over! 10* OVER the total in New England

PAC-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #173 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:45 ET - After everyone watched USC get blasted at Notre Dame last week no one will want the Trojans here. The fact is that Southern Cal made some key early mistakes against the Fighting Irish and it "snowballed" from thereon. This is helping to give us some great line value because USC is still a very high quality team and they have played a bit of a tougher schedule than Arizona State has. Also, the Sun Devils caught a break last week against Utah as it was Utes QB Huntley's first game back. Yes ASU also knocked off Washington the prior week but just how good were the Huskies anyway? Washington was indeed undefeated at the time but the Huskies had played a very weak schedule and, in fact, were a favorite of at least 28 points in 5 of their first 6 games. Keep in mind, before these two solid defensive performances for ASU, they had allowed 483.6 yards per game! I am not sold on the Sun Devils defense just yet! Now Arizona State takes on an angry USC team playing with a chip on its shoulder and, before last week's loss to the Irish, the Trojans had gained over 450 yards of offense in 6 of their first 7 games. USC beat the Sun Devils by 3 TDs last season and by 4 TDs the prior season! Remember too that ASU's win last week was at Utah (a very physical team) and the Sun Devils may not have much left in the tank here! The Trojans are 11-0, 100% ATS when they are favored and are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points! Southern Cal makes a statement tonight and that record moves to 12-0, 100% ATS! 10* USC

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #177 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oregon Ducks vs Utah Utes @ 5:45 ET - Beautiful weather in Eugene this afternoon with light winds, comfortable temperatures, and clear skies. Certainly both offenses will be able to have the playbooks fully open for this one. Of course Oregon is still hurting at QB because it is currently Braxton Burmeister at the controls but I expect him to be better today back at home after struggling in the two games away from home. I also expect Utah QB Tyler Huntley to show improvement this week in his 2nd week back. We're getting a low total here because of recent results and I am glad to step in and take advantage because Burmeister has already proven to be better at home than on the road and Huntley will be better in his 2nd game back after shaking the rust off last week. Keep in mind the Utes defense can be run on and the Ducks will be dangerous on their home turf. They've got plenty of athleticism at the skill positions. The issue for Oregon is their own defense has issues as well. The Ducks have allowed an average of 35 points per game their last 5 games. The Utes have allowed an average of 26 points per game their last 4 games. The over is on a 14-3 run in Oregon's home games. Also, 3 of the last 4 times the Ducks have hosted the Utes the game has gone over the total. The Utes are 9-5 to the over in their last 14 road games. 10* OVER the total in Oregon

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #186 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - A ranked Michigan State team opened up right around a pick'em in this game and, of course, the public and the betting markets are all over the Spartans. This line has been driven up to as high as a 3 as of early gameday morning and I'll gladly grab the home dog here. First off the Spartans are off of a miracle cover last week as they were laying about a TD versus Indiana and were down 9-3 before scoring two TDs in the final 6 minutes. Michigan State is simply an over-rated football team this season and they're likely to be exposed these next few weeks. The Spartans have Penn State and Ohio State on deck after this "tougher than it looks" match-up with Northwestern. The Wildcats defense has allowing an average of just 338 yards per game their last 5 games and that included match-ups with Wisconsin and Penn State! Northwestern is at home for the 3rd time in 4 weeks while the Spartans are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks plus have a "lookahead" situation with the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes on deck! Of course the Spartans have a strong defense but their struggles on offense are evident this season with just 22.7 points per game and they've been held to 18 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The Wildcats have averaged 447 yards per game at home this season while the Spartans have averaged just 308 yards of offense on the road this year. The line move has opened up great value here and Michigan State is on an 0-7 ATS run as a road favorite. The Wildcats are on a 9-3 ATS run in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 of a season. 8* NORTHWESTERN

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #204 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (-) vs Arkansas Razorbacks @ Noon ET - The loss of Austin Allen to injury at QB for Arkansas means Cole Kelley gets the start here. While Ole Miss also is without starting QB Shea Patterson, I like their replacement more than the Kelley for Allen situation. I also like the fact that Jordan Ta'amu gets this start at home. From a situational standpoint this is a great spot for Ole Miss as they're playing their 3rd straight home game while the Razorbacks are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. Also, Arkansas has lost 3 straight games by an average margin of 30 points per game! The Rebels have revenge from a 4 point loss at Arkansas last season as well as a loss (in 4 OT!) the last time Ole Miss hosted the Razorbacks. Prior to last week's loss to LSU, the Rebels were a perfect 3-0 at home this season. As for Arkansas, they have lost both road games and their other game played away from home (neutral site) this season. This line has dropped all the way down to a 3 but it is certainly worth noting that the Rebels are 4-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the long-term numbers on that are 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS. Good spot for a big home win as Ta'amu is a dual-threat QB who certainly has a ton of potential. You'll see that today! 8* OLE MISS

Friday Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* OVER the total in Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - There is a cold front moving into Memphis today on Friday. However, by the time this game kicks off, most of the rain will be gone from the area and most of the winds will have subsided. In a nutshell, the weather should have no impact on this game. In terms of the set-up with these teams, both have weaknesses on defense but both showed plenty in terms of their offensive firepower and "fight to the finish) mentality in their games last week. Memphis rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit to win 42-38 at Houston last Thursday. Tulane rallied from being down 34-7 to lose by only 6 points in their 34-28 loss against a Central Florida team that has a solid defense. That said, scoring 21 unanswered points against the Golden Knights was certainly impressive for the Green Wave. Memphis is allowing 488.4 yards per game and Tulane has run for 266 yards per game on the season plus they threw for 221 yards in last week's game. Unusual passing success for the run-heavy Green Wave but certainly it gives the Tigers sub-par defense another threat to be concerned with here. Memphis has thrown for 372.8 yards per game in their last 6 games so they'll have no trouble attacking Tulane's D through the air. Also, in home game this season the Tigers have averaged 194 rushing yards per game so they certainly have a balanced enough offense to keep the Green Wave defense off balance. The over is 24-9 when the Tigers enter a game on a winnig streak of 2 games or more. 8* OVER the total in Memphis

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Thursday NFL 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:25 ET - The Ravens are banged up (particularly) on offense but they also are fired up and have enough healthy bodies here to get the job done against the Dolphins. Baltimore is out to prove themselves at home in a primetime game and this is when teams playing with a chip on their shoulder tend to be at their best. Look for Joe Flacco and company to surprise people tonight. Though it has been a frustrating season for the Ravens QB thusfar, Flacco has been better at home and only 3 of the 4 "home" games for Baltimore have been true home games as one was played in London. Baltimore has scored 24 points in 2 of their 3 games played in Baltimore and that type of production should be enough to take down the Dolphins. Sure Miami looked better after Matt Moore took over at QB for the injured Matt Moore last week but the Dolphins were facing a Jets team that was downtrodden after a tight loss to the Patriots the week before. Now Miami faces an angry Ravens team off of back to back losses. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS at home when they are off of back to back losses (both SU and ATS) and they're hosting a team with a winning percentage under .750 - that system is fully in play here. The Dolphins are on a 1-5 ATS run in games against the AFC North Division. 8* BALTIMORE

Total Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday CFB 8* OVER the total in Northern Illinois Huskies vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7 ET - It will be a mild evening in DeKalb tonight as the cold air is not moving in until after this game will already be in the books. That said, this one truly is set up well for a lot of points. Eastern Michigan's defense has allowed over 400 yards in each of their last 3 games and now they're playing their 4th road game in 5 games and this has all taken place within a span of 27 days. Look for the Eagles defense to be worn down and they're facing a Huskies offense known for giving them trouble. That is why Northern Illinois has won 9 straight games against Eastern Michigan. The Huskies come into this one having averaged over 500 yards of offense per game in their past two games and those were on the road. The issue for the Huskies here could be a lookahead to the big match-up at Toledo coming up next week. Northern Illinois has enough offense to still win this game tonight but don't be surprised if their defense gets exposed as they start to peek ahead to the huge game against the Rockets that is slated for next Thursday. That will spell trouble against an Eagles offense that is averaging 274.4 passing yards per game this season! Both these teams have trended under this season but this match-up, for all the reasons noted above, is set up perfectly for an over. Also, the over is 46-30 when the Eagles enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Eastern Michigan is also 5-1 to the over in Thursday games. 8* OVER the total in Northern Illinois

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - The Eagles aren't getting very much respect here. Quick...name all the teams in the NFL with 1 loss or less...the answer is one word...Eagles. No one is undefeated as you know and Philadelphia is the last remaining 1 loss team even though 4 of their first 6 games have been on the road. The Eagles already beat the Redskins in their season opener in Washington and now they get them at home. Certainly I have plenty of respect for the Redskins, a quality division rival of Philadelphia. However, the Eagles went 5-1 last season when Lane Johnson was in the lineup. A top offensive tackle of the Eagles who was suspended for 10 games last season, Johnson makes a big difference when he is in there. Johnson has been dealing with a concussion but is listed as probable for this game and that's great news for Philly. Not only did they go 5-1 with him in the lineup last season they are already 5-1 this season and they know this game is huge in terms of creating significant gap at the top of the NFC East. The Redskins had owned the Eagles in recent seasons but Philly proved they already have turned the tables on this season with that win back in week 1. There is a certain "aura" around the Eagles that this is their year. They've played extremely well on both sides of the ball and are well rested here. Remember that Philly played on Thursday of last week in their impressive win over the Panthers. The Redskins are off of a Sunday game and did not impress in a rather tight win over the winless 49'ers. The Eagles are on a long-term 9-1 ATS run on MNF when they are off of a SU win. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in home games where they are facing a team off of a SU win! That streak continued when they blasted Arizona two weeks ago here in Philly. The Redskins are a long-term 10-21 ATS in Monday night games and that includes 0-4 ATS in MNF the last 3 seasons combined. So we have a perfect 10-0 ATS spot favoring the Eagles in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* UNDER the total in New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons @ 8:30 ET - The Falcons have been waiting for this one and they bring a solid defense into the rematch. I know Atlanta is off of back to back home losses but they have allowed just 312.4 yards per game this season and that ranks them as one of the top defenses in the NFC. The problem for the Falcons has been their offense. Atlanta has been held to just 17 points in each of their past two games. Even though the Patriots defense ranks dead last in the NFL this season, you know that coach Bill Belichick is going to have some special play-calling put together for this game. Even though Atlanta scored 28 points in the Super Bowl, the Falcons were held to just 28 points. The key in that game was the late rally for New England of course. It was truly a "miracle rally" that led to the Pats evening it up late and then winning in OT in a classic finish. In any event, that has resulted in line value here because this O/U has been driven higher all week long. I feel the Falcons defense is being under-rated here and I look for this game to surprise a lot of people because the Atlanta's offensive struggles could continue against a Belichick-coached team. The Falcons were up 17-0 in last week's loss to Miami and then started looking ahead to this game and allowed the Dolphins to rattle off 20 straight points for the upset win. The angry Falcons will play the full sixty here but this one looks like a war that will find points harder to come by than what the public is expecting. Look for each team to record their 3rd straight under as this one falls short of the total. Also, Atlanta is 5-1 to the under when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Patriots are 23-15 to the under as a home fave of 3 points or less. 8* UNDER the total in New England

Golden Ticket - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers are off of their upset victory over the Chiefs at Kansas City last week while the Bengals were resting thanks to a bye week. I know Pittsburgh is known for being tough at home through the years but they've been an "up and down" team this season and have yet to cover 2 straight games. On the other side of the equation, the Bengals come into this game riding a 3-game ATS win streak and seeking revenge. Pittsburgh knocked Cincinnati out of the playoffs 2 years ago. Since then the Steelers also have won each of the last two regular season meetings. This is their first meeting this season however and the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Bengals also are on a 6-1 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. Specific to divisional road games, Cincy has covered 7 of their last 10. In the Steelers last 7 home games in regular season home games, they are just 2-5 ATS. Look for the Bengals momentum to continue here as, whether or not they get the upset and get their revenge, I do expect them to make it 4 in a row ATS with another cover here. 10* CINCINNATI

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos scored just 10 points in their home loss to the Giants on Sunday Night but that was a ridiculous statistical anomaly. Denver actually totaled 412 yards in that game but they were done in by 3 turnovers and 2 missed field goals. The Broncos certainly should bounce back here against a Chargers defense that ranks last in the league against the run. Of course once a team can establish the run game against an opponent it really opens things up for the passing game and Denver had 366 passing yards against the Giants last week. The weather will be hot in Los Angeles today and the clear and very warm conditions will be conducive to a strong showing on offense from both teams. Keep in mind, the Chargers do have one of the top passing attacks in the league and, being division rivals with Denver, Philip Rivers and company are certainly very familiar with what the Broncos defense brings to the table. The Chargers have not scored less than 19 points in any of the past 4 meetings. Couple that with the fact that is LA is riding the momentum of back to back wins and has averaged 23 points per game in their last 3 games and I like my chances with a strong performance from the Chargers offense. The Bolts are 8-4 to the over in October games. In weeks 5 through 9 of a season, Denver is 65-40 to the over. Also, this O/U moving lower has opened up some solid value and the Broncos are 5-2 to the over in road games with a posted total in a range of 38.5 to 42 points. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (-) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - There is a good chance of rain at this game but the winds are not expected to be significant and the rain is expected to just be light showers rather than heavy rain. That is significant here because with the Saints having Drew Brees and the Packers being without Aaron Rodgers, New Orleans holds a huge edge in terms of offensive potency in this one! Green Bay QB Brett Hundley had a 1-3 ratio last week and the Packers offense totaled only 227 yards last week. Surprisingly, even when Rodgers has been playing for Green Bay, the Packers offense has struggled overall this season. The Pack ranks 21st in the league on offense while New Orleans ranks 7th. The Saints defense also has come on strong and have forced 9 turnovers their last 3 games. I know that New Orleans gave up big points to Detroit last week but much of that happened after they had built up a huge lead and then "let up" in the game. Green Bay is looking ahead to their bye week and a chance to get healthy and to do a little more with their QB situation. As for the Saints, they're looking to 4 straight wins and I feel they will do just that and make it 4 straight covers also! New Orleans is 10-1 ATS when they are on the road after scoring more than 40 points. The Saints are also 9-0 ATS when facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage above .666 as is the case with the 4-2 Packers. New Orleans is also 5-0 ATS in road games against NFC North teams. The Packers are 0-6 ATS when off a SU loss by a double digit margin in divisional action (Vikings last week) and now facing a non-divisional opponent in the current week. That means the Saints are supported by systems that are a combined 30-1 ATS including a triple perfect 20-0 ATS when combining those 3 perfect ATS stats! I'll take it! 8* NEW ORLEANS

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #393 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8 ET - Pace of the offense is key when handicapping totals and I expect this game to be played at a very frenetic pace. West Virginia is averaging 79.2 plays per game on offense that ranks them 4th fastest out of all 130 FBS teams. As for Baylor, their pace on the season is not as high but, in recent games, they've certainly sped things up (trying to get their offense back to the Bears of recent seasons). Baylor's offense has averaged 79.3 plays per game in their last 3 games. As you can see, that pace aligns them perfectly with the Mountaineers and that means we can expect a "track meet" style of game in Waco tonight. Some weather is expected to be moving into the Waco area but not until after midnight so the only electricity in the air for this one will be from the offense putting up a ton of points. Now I know Baylor hasn't scored a lot this season but they have moved the ball quite well and plus have totaled at least 41 points in 2 of their 3 home games. Also, West Virginia has allowed over 450 yards per game this season. The key for the Mountaineers has been a dynamic offense that is averaging 44.2 points per game and, keep in mind, Baylor's defense is allowing over 500 yards per game. There just won't be many stops at all in this game as the Bears offense is a different "animal" when at home but the Baylor D has no chance of slowing down the red hot Mountaineers offense. West Virginia is already 5-1 to the over this season and a perfect 4-0 in games played on turf! The last time these teams met here (2 years ago) the game totaled 100 points! 10* OVER the total in Baylor

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #401 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (+) @ Notre Dame @ 7:30 ET - The mystique of playing at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, IN causes a lot of shading of the line toward the Fighting Irish in home games. That is the case here and, simply put, it has resulted in phenomenal value for the better team. Southern Cal is on a mission to be a playoff team representing the Pac-12 Conference this season. The Trojans know they can ill afford another loss and they also have revenge against the Irish. Yes, USC did defeat them last year (rather handily too!) but they still remember the loss 2 years ago in South Bend where Notre Dame got the better of them despite the Trojans outgaining them by more than a football field! The Irish have not played an easy schedule, not at all, but Southern Cal's schedule has been even tougher. That strength of schedule edge for USC will come to the forefront here because Notre Dame also is fortunate to be 5-1 as they were outgained (again by more than a full football field) when they won at Michigan State earlier this season. 3 Spartans turnovers keyed that victory for the Irish. Give them credit of course but Notre Dame now faces a USC teams that is throwing for nearly 300 yards per game while the Fighting Irish are barely throwing for half that per game. Yes, ND does run the ball well but USC has been very tough against the run with just 118.8 rushing yards allowed per game the last 5 games. When Notre Dame is a favorite off of back to back wins (both victories SU and ATS) with the most recent win coming by a double digit margin, they've gone just 2-9 ATS! Look for Southern Cal to improve to 7-3 ATS in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 10* USC

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #371 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Navy Midshipmen vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - The Golden Knights should be able to score at will here. UCF is averaging 50.6 points per game and Navy just doesn't have the defense to match-up with the athleticism of Central Florida's dynamic offense. One thing the Midshipmen do have going for them here is the fact that their triple option attack on offense will present a nightmare challenge for a Golden Knights defense that is not used to seeing it. UCF has allowed 300 rushing yards on 63 carries the past two weeks but the challenge for their run defense is even greater than that here. Yes, Navy only scored 27 points last week but that had a lot to do with having 5 turnovers in the game. Look for the Midshipmen offense to be executing much better at home in this one. Remember Navy has averaged 45 points and 520 rushing yards per game in their last two home games. Both those home games went over and this one will too. The Midshipmen are on an 11-5 run to the over in home games and the weather will be ideal today in Annapolis, MD. Central Florida is on a 20-11 run to the over in games where they are a road favorite. 8* OVER the total in Navy

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #398 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - Both teams are having tough seasons but Florida State has played the toughest schedule in the nation this year. The Cardinals defense has been awful this season. Taking a look at their last 5 games Louisville, of course, had an easy time with over-matched opponents like Kent State and Murray State. But, in their other 3 games, the Cards allowed an average of 562.7 yards per game! Compare that to a Seminoles defense that has had no cupcakes and yet is allowing only 330.6 yards per game on the season. FSU also has revenge from last season's embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville. The Noles get payback today and the drop in this line has opened up solid line value for us. I'll take it! Also, Louisville is 0-5 ATS when they are an underdog in conference play and coming off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more. After losing 45-42 at home versus Boston College last week, that perfect angle is in play here. Overall, the Cardinals are on a 3-14 ATS run dating back to last season and, though the Seminoles have been struggling at the betting window, the strength of opposition they have faced has had a lot to do with that. Look for last week's win at Duke to be a sign of things to come for the Noles. 8* FLORIDA STATE

ESPN Smash Pass Friday - Rickenbach CFB 8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Blue Raiders starting QB Brent Stockstill is doubtful for tonight's game but sophomore QB John Urzua now has filled in quite well and this would be his 6th straight game. The key for Urzua is minimizing turnovers and he has been much better about that on the home compared to on the road. Look for another big game from him here at home where he has 3 TDs against just 1 INT plus Urzua has completed 49 of 63 (78%) at home! Overall he has thrown for 292 yards per game in his last 4 games and I like the fact that the Middle Tennessee has played a tougher schedule thus far in comparison with Marshall. Though the Thundering Herd are 2-0 in conference action they've faced Old Dominion and Charlotte - teams that are a combined 2-11 on the season! The teams that MTSU has faced are a combined 6-2 in conference action and none of the 3 teams has a losing record. Also, the Blue Raiders won their lone home game in CUSA action thus far and they won it by 20 points! Middle Tennessee plays this game with revenge after losing badly at Marshall last season due to a 4-0 turnover deficit! The host is a perfect 4-0 ATS all time in this series and I look for the Blue Raiders to make that 5-0 tonight! 8* MIDDLE TENNESSEE 

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - Kansas City is scoring an average of 36 points per game on the road this season but their defense has allowed 27 points or more in 2 of their 3 road games. The over is 2-1 in Chiefs road games and also 2-1 in Raiders home games. The only under that Oakland has had at home was last week but that was the first game back for Raiders QB Derek Carr. Now that he has shaken off the rust he'll be much sharper here. Both teams rank toward the bottom of the league on defense. Raiders are 14-4 to the over in their last 18 home games. 8* OVER the total in Oakland

ESPN Smash Pass Thursday - Rickenbach CFB 8* OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Memphis Tigers @ 8 ET - The Cougars are 0-6 to the over this season but it is one of the most "faulty" records I have seen in a long-time. Their defense allowed nearly 300 yards rushing to Tulsa last week and they gave up 45 points. Prior to that, taking a look at Houston's last two home games, the Cougars defense allowed over 520 yards of offense in each game! Houston's offense is averaging 458 yards per game at home and I do expect them to respond after scoring just 17 points at Tulsa last week. That said, this one has the makings of an easy over because Memphis is averaging nearly 500 yards of offense per game this season. The Tigers have scored at least 30 points in all but one of their six games this season. Last week they got run all over by Navy, the 2nd time in 3 games that Memphis has allowed over 300 yards rushing. Also, the Tigers pass defense had allowed over 250 yards of passing in all 5 games this season prior to facing the run-heavy Midshipmen last week. That game versus Navy did stay under the total for Memphis but they were previously 4-1 to the over this season. Also, the Tigers are 23-9 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games and Memphis is 7-1 to the over in Thursday games. The Cougars are 13-7 to the over on Thursdays. 8* OVER the total in Houston

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 8* OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:30 ET - The Colts offense got a boost with a big game from Jacoby Brissett last week and that gives them extra confidence heading into this match-up with the Titans. Of course the fact that Indianapolis has won all 10 meetings with Tennessee since Chuck Pagano took over at head coach also bodes well for the Colts here. Indianapolis has averaged 28.9 points per game in those 10 victories. As for the Titans, their offense has been miserable the last two weeks but they lost Marcus Mariota after throwing just 10 passes in their game at Houston two weeks ago. Tennessee was then without Mariota in their next game, last week at Miami. Now, with Mariota back, the Titans offense should enjoy much better production. Tennessee had averaged 28.7 points per game in their first 3 games before Mariota got hurt. Both of these teams allow a ton of points so don't look for many defensive stops in this one! The Titans are allowing 28.4 points per game and the Colts are allowing 31.8 points per game this season. When the Colts are a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the over is on a 19-6 run! In games played on grass, Indianapolis is on a 12-1 run to the over and it will be beautiful autumn weather tonight in Nashville so no limitations for the offenses in this one. The Titans are 10-3 to the over as a favorite including a perfect 4-0 to the over when they are a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for a shootout in this one! 8* OVER the total in Tennessee

Total of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New York Giants @ 8:30 ET - The Broncos are off of a 16-10 defensive-minded win over the Raiders two weeks ago. Believe it or not, that was their first under this season as Denver had been on a 3-0 run to the over. Speaking of a run like that, the Giants enter this game on a 3-0 run to the over. Yes, New York is dealing with a ton of injuries but those have impacted their defense too and they continue to blow leads late in games. That said, the fact this total has made a downward move is leading to some exceptional line value in a game that may surprise some people. It will be perfect weather in Denver this evening with clear skies and pleasantly cool temperatures. The Broncos, prior to their bye week, are off of a divisional win over the Raiders and Denver has back to back divisional games on deck versus the Chargers and Chiefs. That said, don't be surprised if the Broncos defense slips up some tonight. It's easy to underestimate a wounded appointment and the Giants offense comes in with a chip on their shoulder and with a number of guys looking to "prove themselves" on national TV tonight. The Giants have averaged 23 points per game in their last 3 games. The Broncos, prior to shutting down the Raiders, had allowed 21.3 points per game on the season. I just think this total is very low when you consider these numbers. The Broncos offense, prior to putting up just 16 points in back to back games, had averaged 33 points a game in their first two games. The over is a long-term insane 23-6 (79%) in Broncos games versus the NFC East! The Giants are 7-2 to the over when they enter a game on a streak of 2 or more SU losses. This one will surprise some people. The Giants defense (26 ppg L4 games) has really slipped and Denver's defense is going to underestimate the New York offense since the G-men are without Odell Beckham, Jr as well as others! 10* OVER the total in Denver

Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - The Chiefs magical luck on the field and at the betting window continues. Not only is Kansas City the only undefeated team this season - 5-0 SU mark - they also are the only 5-0 ATS team as well. Of course they deserve credit for achieving this mark but taking a look back at their games raises some interesting doubt. They rallied late at New England (deceiving final score) and KC then had to rally again versus the Eagles (Philadelphia looked like the better team for much of that game). Kansas City then beat a Chargers team that is only 1-4 on the season and that preceded the absolutely ridiculous miracle cover versus the Redskins (another game where Chiefs opponent looked like the better team for much of the game). Now, after a win at Houston (but allowing 34 points), I expect Kansas City's luck has run out. They're running into an angry Steelers team that is off of an embarrassing home loss to Jacksonville. Even though Pittsburgh's win at KC in the post-season gives the Chiefs revenge in this spot, the Steelers are so "ticked off" right now that they will be the team showing much more "fight" in this game. Also, that win at Kansas City only game by 2 points for the Steelers but they significantly ougained the Chiefs in that game. In fact, the Steelers have outgained KC by an average of 120 yards per game in the last two meetings. More of the same here. The AFC North is known for tough, physical football and the Chiefs can't hang. Look for them to drop to 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC North. I love having the substantial points here and the Steelers are a long-term 74-53 ATS as an underdog. Pittsburgh entered this season 10-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points when facing an opponent on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Steelers are 5-0 ATS as dogs when facing a team with a winning record that is playing against them with revenge! Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS when they are home off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. 10* PITTSBURGH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:05 ET - The Jaguars are off of their huge win at Pittsburgh last week. Jacksonville has yet to win back to back games this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Rams are hungry after their tough home loss versus the Seahawks last week. Los Angeles is a very improved football team this year as they actually outgained Seattle by over 130 yards in the 16-10 loss but they were done in by turnovers. That has helped to create some line value here and I do expect the Rams to respond in a big way after last week's frustrating loss to the Hawks. LA is averaging 272 passing yards per game as Jared Goff has responded very well to all the coaching staff changes that took place for the Rams heading into this season. By comparison, Jacksonville's passing attack is averaging only 159.6 yards per game. I look for the aerial attack to be a key difference-maker in this game. Being a favorite is certainly not a good role for the Jags. They've gone 2-6 ATS (and SU!) as a fave and the Jaguars are also an ugly 1-7 ATS (and SU!) in their games against NFC opponents. Give me the hungry road dog off of a loss as I expect Jacksonville gets caught still celebrating their huge win at Pittsburgh! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Saints are getting accolades for their defensive turnaround in their past two games but I am not sold on them just yet. Yes they had the good performance versus the Panthers 3 weeks ago but that was largely a victory fueled by 3 Carolina turnovers. Note that in their other 3 games, New Orleans has only forced 1 turnover! Also, the fact the Saints shut down the Dolphins two weeks ago could certainly have an asterisk by it for two reasons. One, strange things happen in those games played in London - Ravens completely annihilated by Jaguars there earlier this season! Secondly, the Dolphins are absolutely the worst offense in the NFL. The point is that the Saints face a major challenge this week with Matthew Stafford and company coming to town. The Lions, of course, are use to playing in a dome and they won here both last season and the prior season as well. Detroit will be very hungry here as they fell just short of the comeback win versus Carolina last week. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the Lions are on a perfect 4-0 ATS (and SU!) run. The Saints are 0-2 ATS (and SU!) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. That makes this a "double perfect" spot to back the Lions and that's precisely what I am doing. The Saints are off of their bye week but the Lions have their bye week on deck and are coming off of a loss. They'll be hungry to get back on the winning track prior to their bye. 8* DETROIT

Sunday Special - Rickenbach CFB 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) vs Akron Zips @ 1 ET - The weather is a key to this play. While the rain that forced the postponement of this game from Saturday to Sunday has mostly ended, the key weather element today is the wind. It will be very windy with gusts up to 40 mph. This is going to force these teams to rely on the rushing attack and that is where the Broncos have a huge edge. Western Michigan's weakness on defense has been the passing attack but the Zips can't exploit that, especially with today's weather. However, as for the ground game, the Broncos have allowed only 68 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games while their own offense has run for an average of 302 yards per game! Western Michigan is ultra talented in the backfield with 3 tailbacks that all can create havoc for opposing defenses. The Zips are off of a big win but they faced a Ball State without their starting QB. I know the Broncos are off of a 7 OT win versus Buffalo but the fact they did hang on for the win PLUS now got an extra day of rest thanks to Mother Nature AND they're at home here means that we've got a solid "play on" situation here. The Broncos battles with USC and Michigan State early this season really helped set the tone for them and they've now won 4 straight games and their 3 home games this season have all been wins by an average margin of 32 points per game. By the way, Western Michigan also beat the Zips by a count of 41-0 last season. Akron is on a 3-12 ATS run as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team that is off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - The Trojans have underachieved so far this season but they're getting a little healthier now and the odds makers set this line "big" even though USC is on an 0-4 ATS run because they know what they're doing! Southern Cal is set to blast Utah here as the Utes are definitely not the same team without QB Tyler Huntley and he is listed as doubtful for this game. Utah is off of a home loss to Stanford and the Cardinal aren't the powerhouse they once were so that says a lot right there. The Utes could be suffering from unbeaten letdown here. Also, USC has revenge from a 31-27 loss at Utah last year. Southern Cal is 3-0 both SU and ATS the last 3 times they've hosted the Utes. Also, USC has played a MUCH tougher schedule this season than the Utes have. Look for battle tested Southern Cal to be ready to blast Utah in this one. The markets and the public will be fooled here because they're not properly factoring in the QB situation for Utah (having to turn to Williams) and the fact that Utah has played the much easier schedule and now faces a tremendous road test here against a revenge-seeking Trojans team that also plans to make a "statement" in this game. 10* USC

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #201 Saturday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) @ North Texas Mean Green @ 7 ET - The Roadrunners, after an undefeated start, got a much-needed wake-up call last week as they got upset by Southern Mississippi. That outright loss as a double digit fave will end up doing some good for UTSA and the "good" starts here as they should get right back on track against North Texas. Neither team has played a very difficult schedule so you can basically compare "apples to apples" when you look at the stats of these teams. While both teams have solid offenses, the key factor here is the Roadrunners big edge on defense. UTSA is allowing just 269.8 yards per game this season while North Texas is allowing 400.8 yards per game. While the Mean Green are giving up 34 points per game the Runners are giving up only 18 points a game. As a home dog of 3 points or less, North Texas has gone just 4-10 ATS and 3-11 SU. I would recommend taking UTSA on the money line here if you have access to it because, as of early gameday morning, it is available in the -120 range which is a bargain price considering the Roadrunners opened up in the 4.5 point range as a favorite in this one. Everyone is over-reacting to last week's results and, the fact is, UTSA is on a 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) run as a road favorite and also an overall 6-2 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Even though North Texas has revenge here, they are 1-11 ATS when playing with revenge against a conference foe that has a winning percentage of .600 or greater. Also, prior to their bye week, the Mean Green got a big upset win over Southern Miss and that is noteworthy because North Texas is 2-14 ATS when they are off of an upset win in conference action! UTSA is 3-1 SU (and ATS) against the Mean Green and, in the lone loss the Roadrunners outgained North Texas by over 100 yards but fell short on the scoreboard. Take the superior team in an advantageous situation (motivated off of a loss) and look for a road rout here. 10* UTSA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #157 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Houston Cougars @ 4 ET - The Cougars have gone under in all 5 of their games this season but it is the most ridiculous thing I have seen. Their offense averages a respectable 429 yards per game. The Houston defense has allowed an average of 532.5 yards (but only 24.5 points) in their last 2 home games. Now the Cougars are on their road and this will certainly be the toughest test their defense has faced on the road since their opener at Arizona in early September. The point is that Tulsa should score plenty here but the key to the over is the fact that the Golden Hurricane defense is nothing short of atrocious. Tulsa is allowing an average of 44 points and 587.5 yards per game this season! The Golden Hurricane are allowing an average of 8.2 yards per play and that ranks them 130th out of 130 teams - dead last among FBS schools! Tulsa's offensive production has been a little "up and down" but facing a Houston defense that has been ripped for over 500 yards in 2 of their last 3 games certainly should result in a great day for the Golden Hurricane offense at home. Tulsa's rushing attack is averaging 269 yards per game this season and that will force the Cougars defense to respect the run which, in turn, will create opportunities for Tulsa's passing game to attack through the air. The over is 18-9 in the last 27 games the Golden Hurricane have played on turf and I expect another one here! 10* OVER the total in Tulsa

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #129 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Connecticut Huskies @ Noon ET - The Owls finally got their offense going in last week's win at East Carolina. The fact that Temple is now back home and off of a game where they scored 34 points and totaled over 500 yards of offense bodes well for another strong effort here. The weather will be very good in Philly Saturday with mild temperatures and light winds so both offenses will be able to execute as they wish. Connecticut is averaging 469 yards per game on offense this season. The Huskies have scored at least 27 points in 4 of their 5 games this season. The problem for UConn is a horrible defense that has given up an average of 575.6 yards per game this season! The Huskies are allowing 49.5 points per game in their 4 games versus FBS schools - their opener was against Holy Cross, an FCS school. The over is 4-0 in Connecticut's 4 games versus FBS schools this season. Look for that streak to reach 5-0 here. The Owls have been trending under this season but they've run 79 offensive plays in each of their past two games. In other words, Temple is playing at a much faster pace and the 34 points and 523 yards of offense against the Pirates last week is a sign of things to come! By the way, the Huskies are throwing for an average of 375 passing yards per game in their last 3 games. The Owls - not including the games against South Florida and Notre Dame because the Fighting Irish and the Bulls didn't have to pass since they simply ran all over them - have allowed 310 passing yards per game in their other 4 games. Neither team will be able to stop the other team here and the pace should be good for an over with the way the Owls have been playing. 8* OVER the total in Temple 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Syracuse Orange (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - With QB Kelly Bryant now listed as probable for this game, the line has jumped to as high as 24 as of early gameday morning. Keep in mind, the last thing the Tigers want to do is risk further injury to their starting QB in a game which they should win comfortably. In other words, I am looking for Clemson to win this game by about 10 to 17 points but that's it. They will look to coast to victory once they get up by a decent margin and Syracuse certainly has the potential for a backdoor cover too (if needed). The Orange offense has averaged 468.8 yards per game this season. Syracuse is also known for being much tougher to play against when they are at home. As a perfect example of that, the Orange got blown out 54-0 last year at Clemson but they only lost by 10 points the prior year when they faced them in Syracuse. I also like the fact that the Tigers have a bye on deck here. They could end up being a little too "relaxed" for this one as Clemson is 6-0 on the season and playing for a 7th straight week and certainly they are looking ahead to enjoying a much-needed week off. It could result in this game being much closer than many are expecting as Syracuse is averaging 32 points a game this season. Clemson is on a 2-4 ATS run as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The Orange are on a 5-2 ATS run as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Also, the Orange have gone 8-4 ATS their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record and that includes a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. 8* SYRACUSE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:25 ET - Even though Panthers are 4-1 on the season, they are 2-1 in the last 3 games and those 2 losses each came by just a field goal. Getting the Eagles at +3.5 is certainly a great value here as the Panthers only blowout win this season came against a 49'ers team that is still winless on the season. The Panthers other win saw them score just 9 points versus Buffalo. Although the Eagles are expected to be without offensive tackle Lane Johnson in this one, his back-up is Halapoulivaati Vaitai and he has plenty of experience. Also, Philadelphia will look to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that is a bit banged up right now. Keep in mind the Eagles offense averages 397.8 yards per game which is behind only the Patriots and Chiefs this season! That's pretty good company to keep and Philly is averaging 27.4 points per game this season whereas the Panthers have scored a TOTAL of only 22 points in their two home games this year! Also, the road team has won 4 of the 5 Thursday games this season and while the Panthers were in Detroit Sunday the Eagles enjoyed a home game Sunday versus Arizona. The Panthers are 2-6 ATS all time in Thursday games. Even though this line is currently 3.5, it is still worth noting that the Eagles are 13-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 4 points when they are playing with revenge against an NFC team. It shows you that Philadelphia does play well in scenarios like this and the Eagles lost in their last visit here in October of 2015 and I am expecting payback tonight. 8* PHILADELPHIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Thursday CFB 8* OVER the total in UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Texas State Bobcats @ 7:30 ET - These are two bad football teams so, of course, it is very difficult to trust either team from an ATS standpoint. However, I do feel the total is offering very good line value for us. The Bobcats defensive numbers are very bad when you eliminate their game against an FCS school, Houston Baptist, which was their season opener. Since that opening game Texas State has allowed an average of 440.8 yards per game. Also, the Bobcats come into this game having allowed at least 44 points in each of their last 3 games. The Ragin' Cajuns also have certainly had trouble on that side of the ball as well. UL-Lafayette is off of a rare strong performance on that side of the ball as they held Idaho to just 16 points last week. However, the Vandals are a very poor team on offense. Prior to that game the Ragin' Cajuns had allowed 45 points or more in each of their first 4 games. Of course the Bobcats are not known for their offense either but they have some added confidence after putting up 27 points (and amassing nearly 400 yards of offense) versus UL-Monroe last week. Couple that with a fact that they're now facing a UL-Lafayette offense that allowed 563.5 yards per game in their first 4 games this season and you certainly have a situation where Texas State is likely to again enjoy some success on offense. Also, the over is 3-0 in the Bobcats last 3 games and the over is 4-1 in all of UL-Lafayette's games this season. The over is also a long-term 10-3 when the Ragin' Cajuns are a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and they are 46-23 to the over long-term when they are a favorite of any number! 8* OVER the total in UL-Lafayette

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday CFB 8* OVER the total in Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars @ 8 ET - The Trojans offense struggled in their season opening loss at Boise State but they've since averaged 27 points per game and won 4 straight. Truly Troy's point totals could have easily been even higher as the Trojans have averaged 204 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games. Also, prior to their passing attack struggling some against an SEC defense (at LSU) to close out the month of September, Troy had averaged 318 passing yards per game in their 3 prior games. You can plainly see then why I am expecting the Trojans to get over 500 yards here against a weak South Alabama defense. The Jaguars have given up 81 points in their 1st two road games this season and truly, in all 5 games this season the only team that South Alabama was able to slow down was an FCS team. Against FBS opponents, the Jags defense has been shredded. The good news for Jaguars fans though is that they should be able to put up some significant points here. South Alabama, other than a whitewashing suffered at the hands of Oklahoma State, has averaged scoring 28 points per game in their other 4 games. The Jaguars will take advantage of facing a Trojans defense that has allowed an average of 288 passing yards per game in their last 3 games. Though both teams have trended to the under this season, the over is 6-0 the past two seasons when South Alabama is facing a team with a winning record. Also, the over is 7-3 when the Jaguars are off of a bye week and they are 8-3 to the over as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points including a perfect 3-0 when they are a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points. 8* OVER the total in Troy Wednesday evening.

MNF Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Monday NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Bears have been very strong on defense this season. Chicago is allowing only 306.2 yards per game. Their biggest problem has been turnovers by the offense. That is why the switch to rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly doesn't cause me concern. It actually does give the Bears a better chance to win because QB Mike Glennon had been a turnover machine for Chicago. Although Sam Bradford is likely to be back at QB for the Vikings here, his knee is not 100% and the Bears defense is very aggressive and likely to cause some problems for an inconsistent Minnesota offensive attack. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between the teams and the one loss by a home team in the last 4 meetings came by just 3 points. In this spot we're getting more points than that with the home dog Bears and I like our chances. Chicago is actually 7-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in a road game with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Bears had the Thursday game last week so they've had extra time to prepare Trubisky for this game and get him ready working with the other starters on the offense as they prepare for this critical divisional match-up. The Bears have revenge from a 38-10 beating at Minnesota in the last meeting with the Vikes. That is significant here as Chicago is off of a blowout loss at Green Bay (due to turnovers) and the Bears are 11-2 ATS when they are at home and playing with revenge and coming off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin! The Vikings, in divisional games, are 1-7 as road favorites when they are off a loss (both SU and ATS). The Vikes were favored last week and they lost outright to Detroit. That is noteworthy here as Minnesota is 0-10 ATS when they are road favorites and coming off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on the road in Monday night games. As you see, there are plenty of ATS stats that support playing on Chicago and playing against Minnesota. Just adding up the perfect ones (1 in support of the Bears and 2 going against the Vikes) and you have a 23-0 ATS spot tonight that favors the Bears. I'll take it! 8* CHICAGO

Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - This total has dropped heading into game-day and, in turn, it is offering great value on the over. The Monday night game with the Chiefs hosting the Redskins certainly had no business going over the total as it went over the closing number on an insane finish that also burned Washington backers (like me) who had the right side all the way in that game. In any event though good analysts must separate things from week to week and just because the Chiefs last game undeservedly went over the total it does not mean this one doesn't have the right set-up for an over. In this case, the Texans and Chiefs appear to be destined for a lot of points. I believe Kansas City's defense is going to struggle badly after getting pounded on by the Redskins last week and now playing on a short week and facing a resurgent Texans offense led by QB DeShaun Watson. Houston is playing with a ton of confidence on offense right now thanks to Watson and they've averaged 45 points per game the past two weeks. The Chiefs, even though it's taken some craziness, continue to "find a way" each week and Kansas City is averaging 30.5 points per game so far this season. I know the Texans are known for a solid defense but they did allow 337 passing yards to New England a few weeks ago and the Chiefs have thrown the ball very well in 3 of their 4 games. Also, KC has run the ball very well in 3 of their 4 games. The balanced offensive attack is a challenge for any defense and that includes the Texans! The over is 8-2 in Houston's last 10 October games. Also, the over is 17-7 in Texans games when they are a home dog of 3 points or less. The Chiefs are 24-16 to the over in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Kansas City's defense has consistently allowed over 100 yards rushing AND over 200 yards passing in each game so the red hot Texans are going to be able to move the ball here as the Watson era continues to develop. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Revenge Rout - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Dallas Cowboys Money Line (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The line is small enough here (-2 or -2.5) that the money line is actually available at a favorable enough price (-135 or -140) to make that the way to go here if you have access to it. The Cowboys, of course, have big-time revenge on their minds in this one. The only two times that Dallas has made the playoffs under Jason Garrett they've been knocked out each time by the Packers. The Cowboys are off of a home loss to the Rams last week and Dallas has alternated wins and losses so far this season. In fact, the Cowboys haven't lost back to back regular season games since the 2015 season. Dallas is averaging 416 yards per game on offense in their home games this season. The Packers are 3-1 on the season but lost their only road game (and it was ugly) at Atlanta. Green Bay is on a 9-10 run in road games (includes 2-2 in playoffs) dating back to October 2015. We are getting some line value because the Packers won 35-14 over the Bears last week and we'll take it because GB was actually out-gained by Chicago in that game. The Cowboys have struggled in post-season match-ups with the Packers but, overall, when hosting Green Bay the Boys have gone 9-2 SU (and 8-3 ATS) in the last 11 meetings. Also, the Cowboys are 11-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more and are now facing a team that is off of a win by a double digit margin! While the Packers have a big divisional game with Minnesota on deck, the Cowboys have their bye week up next. Dallas has averaged 159 rushing yards per game at home and Green Bay allowed 141 rushing yards in their lone run game this season. Don't be surprised if the Cowboys ground game has a huge impact in a big home win here. 8* DALLAS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:05 ET - With Derek Carr out for the Raiders, this is sure to be a contrarian play. The fact is that I expect EJ Manuel to come in and do a nice job in his place at QB as he takes on a Ravens defense that is reeling a bit. Baltimore has given up 169.5 rushing yards the past two weeks and 248.3 passing yards the past three weeks. If they have that type of day again here than it means the Raiders are tallying a total of about 418 yards of offense and that is going to put some significant points on the board for sure. On the other side of the equation, the Raiders run defense has given up 128.3 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games. Also, the Titans and Redskins averaged 305.5 yards through the air against Oakland's pass defense in Games 1 and 3 this season. That said, it is likely the Ravens offense is going to enjoy some success here. Baltimore's offense has been plagued by turnovers this season but the Raiders have forced an average of just 1 turnover per game this season. The Ravens are settled back in after the London trip was a disaster and then they had to come back and face a tough match-up with the division rival Steelers last week. Also, the Raiders are 16-1 (94%) to the over when they are facing a non-divisional AFC foe that is off of back to back losses. Of course the Ravens fit the bill and after scoring 22 points a game in their first two games (both wins) but then just 8 points a game in their last two games (both losses), I look for the Baltimore offense to surprise and put up some big points in this one. The over is 4-1 in the Ravens last 5 versus AFC West opponents. Oakland is 5-0 to the over against AFC North opponents and the Raiders are 3-0 to the over when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. Combining all of these factors with the 16-1 above and you have a fantastic 28-2 (93%) spot favoring the over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The Eagles defense is still quite banged up and they have a short turnaround ahead as they travel to Carolina for a Thursday night game this coming week. Philadelphia has given up 354 passing yards per game in their past two weeks. That spells trouble against an Arizona team that has thrown for an average of 302 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks! On the flip-side, the Cardinals have allowed an average of only 191 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Eagles are 3-1 on the season but, in Week 1, they didn't pull comfortably away from the Redskins until very late. Since then the Eagles have gone 2-1 but the two victories each came by no more that a field goal margin. The point is that Philadelphia is going to again have their hands full this week as nothing has come easy for them this season. Should the Eagles prevail I look for it to again be by 3 points or less. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS on the season but they are certainly one of the best win-less ATS teams that have seen at this point in a season and we are getting extra line value as a result. I'll take it. The past two seasons the Eagles have gone 1-3 (both SU and ATS) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Philadelphia is also 0-4 ATS their last 4 against NFC West opponents. Arizona is 11-1 ATS when on the road against a non-divisional opponent with a winning percentage greater than .700 and the Eagles currently sit at .750 on the young season. Combining these "play on" and "play against" factors and you have an 18-2 (90%) ATS spot in favor of the Cardinals. 8* ARIZONA

AAC Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #399/400 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that all 4 of the Cougars games this season have stayed under the total but it truly has been a bit of a miracle that this has occurred. Last week Houston took advantage of facing a dreadful Temple offense but the prior week the Cougars gave up only 27 points versus Texas Tech even though the Red Raiders gashed them for over 500 yards. In Houston's only other game against a solid offense the Cougars allowed only 16 points but it was only nearly 400 yards by Arizona. The take-away here is the fact that Cougars defense certainly hasn't been as good as the points allowed per game would lead you to believe. That said, I see a lot of value here with a rather low total here consider Houston is in revenge mode against SMU (Cougars lost outright bad as a huge road fave versus Mustangs last year). Houston will be hungry to put up a ton of points on this Southern Methodist defense and they should be successful in doing so as the Mustangs are allowing 34 points per game in their last 4 games. During this stretch SMU has allowed an average of 370.25 passing yards per game! While D is certainly their weakness, the fact is that SMU's offense is a real strength. The Mustangs are confident here as they've averaged 33 points per game in their last 2 games versus Houston. Also, SMU is averaging a fantastic 48 points per game on 500 yards a game so far this season. This has the makings of a shootout and the over is a perfect 3-0 when SMU is an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. 8 of the Mustangs last 12 road games have gone over the total and the Cougars want to put a beating on them but SMU should score right with them which will send this flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Insider Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - This game is being played in my backyard as I live in the San Antonio area. As a matter of fact my 4-year university degree is from UTSA and I follow the Roadrunners closely. This is the perfect spot to fade them. They are 3-0 this season but truly are over-hyped at this point. They've played a super easy schedule as the 3 teams they have beaten are a combined 2-11 on the season. Also, the Runners are the most penalized team in the nation as they've averaged 103 penalty yards per game! That is going to eventually catch up with them in a close game and that is precisely what I am expecting here. UTSA is facing a revenge-minded conference foe as Southern Miss got embarrassed in their last game here (last October). The Golden Eagles lost by 23 even though they held a 31-17 edge in first downs! Needless to say it was a "fluke" final score and payback is on order here. The Southern Miss running back, Ito Smith, is one of the best backs in the conference. Their wide receivers, Allenzae Staggers and Korey Robertson, are both 6'1 and very athletic and will create some match-up problems for the UTSA secondary. The Golden Eagles have had this game circled and they were 3-0 ATS on the season before last week's embarrassing home loss to North Texas. That loss to the Mean Green helped to create additional line value here as well. UTSA does have North Texas on deck and they are 0-4 ATS the week before facing the Mean Green. Also, the Roadrunners entered this season just 1-5 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 6 points against an opponent seeking revenge. That is the case here and the Golden Eagles are going to give them all they can handle in this one which makes the big points very generous. 10* SOUTHERN MISS

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #387 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - Oftentimes, when a team is rolling, the last thing they need is a break but they don't have a choice. That is the case here with a TCU team that is off to a 4-0 start this season but then had a bye week last week. Note that last season the Horned Frogs went 0-2 ATS when coming off of a bye. Another factor against TCU here is that they've been winning even though they're giving up huge yardage. The Horned Frogs allowed at least 463 yards in each of their last two games and yet managed to win each by an average of 16.5 points. In their final game before the bye they were actually outgained at Oklahoma State but managed to win by 13 thanks to 4 Cowboys turnovers. All of this has created line value here because, while TCU certainly should win this game, they are over-priced. West Virginia's defense certainly hasn't been impressive either but they're not the team laying nearly two touchdowns here! That said, it is the Mountaineers offense that will keep them in this game. As noted above, the Horned Frogs have been giving up some big yardage but have been taking advantage of turnovers. West Virginia has had 0 or 1 turnover in 3 of their 4 games and another solid effort from a Mountaineers offense that is averaging 596 yards of offense per game is going to keep pressure on TCU all game long. West Virginia's only loss this season was the opener against Virginia Tech but the Mountaineers did outgain the Hokies by 123 yards in that game! TCU is on a 6-16 ATS run as a favorite and the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. As you can see, TCU hasn't fared well in home games expected to be shootouts and this one certainly fits that description! I am expecting this play against situation that favors the Mountaineers to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS! 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #373/374 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Noon ET - For many years Kansas has been a dreadful football program. Certainly their defense still falls into the dreadful category this season as they're allowing 40 points per game on 485 yards per game this season! However, what has impressed about the Jayhawks this season is their offense is much improved. Kansas is averaging 32.2 points per game on 480.5 yards of offense per game. The over is a PERFECT 4-0 this season in Jayhawks games and it is a PERFECT 5-0 RUN to the over extending back to last season. Kansas is playing at a very fast pace, 80 plays per game from the offense, and that fits in well with what Texas Tech likes to do as they're averaging 76 plays per game from the offense. The Red Raiders are averaging 42.2 points per game on 536.5 yards per game this season! The Texas Tech defense, as usual, is a weakness as they've allowed 454.8 yards per game on the year. The Red Raiders have merely been fortunate that more points haven't been given up. But that is actually helping to give some line value in this game because this total is being held in the upper 70s even though, the way these teams play, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach the century mark just like we saw with my play on the Memphis/UConn game last night on Friday. The over is 3-0 the past 3 seasons when Texas Tech is a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Jayhawks are off of a bye week and the over is a long-term 15-6 when they enter a game with 2 or more weeks of rest. Look for a shootout as the weather is also perfect for this game too! 8* OVER the total in Kansas

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* OVER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Memphis Tigers @ 7 ET - The Tigers defense has been ravaged by injuries. That certainly played a role in Memphis giving up over 600 yards versus South Florida last week. The Tigers have now allowed 36 points per game on the season and the Huskies are ready to take advantage. Connecticut has thrown for over 400 yards each of their past two games. Like the Tigers, the Huskies weakness is defense. UConn allowed nearly 500 yards last week and also allowed an average of 611 yards per game the two prior weeks. With good weather expected here, and a Memphis offense that was averaging 43 points per game before getting shutdown by South Florida last week, you have the makings of a shootout here. I just don't see either team being able to get many stops in this one and there is plenty of big play potential for each team here. Of course that means some quick scoring drives and that is why, though this total is high, it will prove to not be high enough. The Tigers are fired up after last week's loss but their defense is vulnerable. Memphis will push the pace and be very aggressive on offense but the Huskies are likely to answer them score for score throughout much of this game. 8* OVER the total in Connecticut

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* New England Patriots (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - As I had mentioned prior to this season, the Patriots were one of my teams to generally fade this season as they had such ridiculous ATS success last season. That included burning me in the Super Bowl in that miracle comeback and cover versus the Falcons. In any event, indeed the Pats have been a team to fade this season and they've gone just 1-3 ATS thus far. However, their lone cover came after their first SU loss and I expect New England to again respond off of a loss here with a cover. The Patriots have played a much tougher schedule thus far in comparison with the Buccaneers. Also, Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 4 times this season and they have not forced any turnovers in their past two games. New England has turned the ball over only once this entire season and the Pats have forced 4 turnovers in their past two games. Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Patriots, in weeks 5 through 9, are on a 9-0 SU run and 7-1-1 ATS. 8* NEW ENGLAND

ESPN Smash Pass Thursday - Rickenbach CFB 8* OVER the total in NC State Wolfpack vs Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET - Both these teams have been piling up huge yardage as the Cardinals are averaging 575.4 yards of offense per game this season and the Wolfpack are averaging 461.2 yards of offense per game. This is a big total posted on this game but NC State is averaging 35 points a game and Louisville is averaging 40 points per game. Also, keep in mind, the Cardinals only loss this season was to a fantastic Clemson team. In their other 4 games the Cards are averaging 45 points per game. The Wolfpack lost their season opener to South Carolina despite over 500 yards of offense. NC State responded by winning 4 straight and they've averaged 36.5 points per game during the streak. Both teams come in confident and both teams come in with their offenses truly firing on all cylinders. That spells over in this one. The over is 9-3 when Louisville enters a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. As for NC State, their game versus Syracuse stayed just under the number but the over had been 3-0 in all of their home and neutral site games this season. Look for the trending toward overs to quickly resume here as both these teams also play at a fast pace with the teams averaging, between them, running 77 offensive plays per game. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in NC State

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday CFB 8* OVER the total in Georgia Southern Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 8 ET - Even though Georgia Southern has not scored a lot of points this season, they have averaged 237.5 rushing yards per game in their past 2 games. The Red Wolves, other than when they were a 53 point favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, have allowed 269.5 rushing yards per game. The point is that the Eagles are likely going to be able to mount quite the ground based attack on Arkansas State. However, Georgia Southern has a poor defense and that is why the play here is the over. The Eagles have allowed 46.5 points per game in their two games against FBS schools. Also, Georgia Southern is facing a Redwolves offense that is averaging 472.3 yards per game. The over is 8-3 (73%) when Arkansas State is facing a team with a losing record and the over is 4-1 (80%) when the Eagles enter a game off of consecutive SU losses. 8* OVER the total in Georgia Southern