Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:15 ET - The Fighting Irish are 8-0 SU on the season but are 3-4 ATS their last 7 and truly are over-priced here. Notre Dame is known for sliding at this point in the season and this certainly could be "upset week" for them as they are just 3-5 SU (and 1-7 ATS!) the past two Novembers. Conversely, the Wildcats are in their most relished role. As an underdog, Northwestern is now 10-3 ATS their last 13 and that includes 4-0 this season! 3 of the 4 this season were outright upset wins! The Wildcats are also a long-term 11-3 ATS as home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and 9 of those 11 wins were outright upsets! Northwestern also is known for staying hot once they get hot! The Cats enter this game having won 4 straight and they are 9-1 SU and (8-2 ATS!) their last 10 when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Ever since losing RB Jeremy Larkin for the season (career ended) this Wildcats team has bonded tremendously. They lost (but covered) their first game without him in a hard-fought 3-point loss to mighty Michigan and they've since won 4 straight games! Of course there will be plenty of Notre Dame fans here but certainly it still is not the same as the Wildcats having to face the Fighting Irish in South Bend. That said, I also like the fact that we've got some more technical data supporting this play. ND is 3-10 ATS the game after facing Navy. Notre Dame is also just 1-5 ATS when on the road after scoring more than 35 points and now facing a team that is playing with revenge. The Irish are also on an 0-5 ATS run as a favorite of more than 6 points against a Big Ten team! 10* NORTHWESTERN

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #379 Saturday CFB 8* Utah Utes (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 4 ET - Utah just wrapped up a dominating month of October as they won all 4 games both SU and ATS. Now the Utes eye revenge at Arizona State. Last year, the Sun Devils knocked off the Utes in Salt Lake City and it is time for payback here. The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams by a margin of 20 points or more and I am forecasting another road rout here. The Utes are catching ASU at the perfect time to get a big road win. The Sun Devils are off a revenging win over a USC team that was quite banged up heading into that one. Give ASU credit nonetheless but lets not forget that the Sun Devils entered  that game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. All 4 losses came by 7 points apiece. Coincidentally, 7 is the exact line on this game in most places as of Friday afternoon but I certainly am not posting this expecting a push. The Utes won their 4 games in October by an average margin of 24 points per game. In comparing these teams the Utes have a large edge on defense. Utah is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass. Also, the Utes are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they've entered a game on SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Arizona State is 3-6 ATS (and 2-7 SU!) when off a win versus a Pac-12 foe. The Sun Devils are a long-term 10-17 ATS in home games with a posted total between 52.5 and 56 points. Grabbing a red hot road team that is running the ball extremely well and also has the vastly superior defense and that is also seeking revenge is absolutely the way to go here. 8* UTAH

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #351 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - The Longhorns are off a loss at Oklahoma State. I won't be surprised to see Texas come out flat in this one after "unbeaten letdown" with the loss to the Cowboys being their first Big 12 loss of the season. It was no fluke as the Horns were outgained by 100 yards by OSU. Also, note that Texas was outgained in their wins over TCU and Oklahoma as well. Simply put, I feel that the Longhorns are a bit over-rated right now. As for West Virginia, they are truly flying "under the radar" right now as the Mountaineers are 6-1 SU on the season and, other than one embarrassing effort at Iowa State (the lone loss), they've played extremely well. The Mountaineers average margin of victory is 26.3 points per win in their 6 victories. West Virginia is 7-3 SU (and 8-2 ATS) as a road dog of 3 points or less their last ten! Look for a typical November fade from the Longhorns here (2-6 ATS last 8 in November) after last week's loss at Oklahoma State sets the tone for typical late season disappointment for the Horns. Also, Texas is 1-5 ATS their last 6 as a favorite and 2-5 ATS in home games with a total posted between 56.5 and 63 points. Look for the road team to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Will Grier and the Mountaineers offense will prove to be too much here. 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #315 Friday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - Yes, Virginia has been red hot and many are looking to ride the Cavaliers here. This is especially true as Pittsburgh, despite an ultra-impressive performance on offense (and a win), gave up a ton of yardage last week. The facts that matter the most here are the Panthers are a very physical football team and while I greatly respect Cavs coach Bronco Mendenhall, he and the Cavaliers have lost to Pitt in each of his first two seasons. Coming into this season Virginia was pegged by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Now both the Cavs and the Panthers have just 1 ACC loss heading into this battle. The Cavaliers are also ranked! However, I fully believe this is a case of a little too much too respect too soon for the Cavaliers. I am calling for the upset here but, of course, I am grabbing the points. Currently this line is at 7.5 as of early gameday morning and that is a great value. The Cavs, for all their accolades, actually have only averaged 346 yards per game their last 4 games. The Panthers, on the other hand, have averaged 479 yards of offense per game in their last 3 ACC games! Pitt is loaded with confidence after their huge performance at Duke and they also have confidence at Virginia due to recent success in this match-up. Under head coach Pat Narduzzi, the Panthers have gone 11-6 ATS in their last 17 as a road dog. Virginia is on a 2-6 ATS run in November games and is a long-term 4-7 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record and get the job done again here. 10* PITTSBURGH

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Oakland Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Niners CJ Beathard is likely to play here. The fact is that even if Nick Mullens got the call at QB is there really anybody that can not move the ball on this Raiders defense. Oakland has been awful on that side of the ball as they keep trying different combinations and nothing is working and the unit is truly in disarray. The Raiders have allowed an average of 31.1 points per game this season. The Niners haven't been much better in that department as they've allowed 29.5 points per game so far on the year. One thing that is going well for the Raiders is that they're offense got going last week as QB Derek Carr threw for 3 TDs and Oakland scored 28 points. I am well aware of the fact that the numbers on offense for each of these teams in the season leave something to be desired, to say the least. However, you simply can't ignore how bad these defenses have been. Yes the Niners held the Cards in check last week but everybody shuts down Arizona this season. The fact is that the 49ers previously allowed 28 points or more in 5 straight games! Prior to last week's under, the over was 5-1 in San Francisco's 6 prior games. Also, the lone under in that stretch did total 49 points. The over is 7-3 the last 10 49ers non-conference games. The over is 5-2 the last 7 times that Oakland has been a road dog of 3 points or less. Take advantage of the drop on this O/U as the defensive play of these two teams simply does not justify it and the weather will be great for this one too. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Western Michigan Broncos vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The strength of each of these teams is clearly on the offensive side of the ball while the defense is a weakness. Yes, against weaker teams like Bowling Green and Ball State (plus those games were at home), Ohio U allowed low point totals and less yardage. However, the Broncos do have a solid offense and yes I am fully aware that QB Jon Wassink is out for this one. By the way, the odds makers were well aware too when they set this total so this number is a big one for a reason. The key here is that Western Michigan back-up QB Kaleb Eleby is a hightly-touted recruit and played quite well (on the road at Toledo!) last week when he had to come in to replace the injured Wassink. Eleby is a legitimate dual threat QB and will give the Bobcats defense trouble here. Note that, in games played away from home, Ohio U has allowed an average of 462 yards per game this season. The Bobcats D will struggle again here but their potent offense (ran for average of 401.5 yards per game last 2) should have no trouble shredding the Broncos weak defense. Western Michigan had one strong game on defense since MAC action began as they held a weak Central Michigan team to just 10 points. However, in their other 4 MAC games, the Broncos have allowed 37.3 points per game. I am aware of the weather forecast in Kalamazoo tonight but the rain is expected to be light showers and winds are not expected to be a factor either as they are forecast to be rather light. The over is 12-3 in the Broncos last 15 home games. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 in the Bobcats last 9 Thursday games. 10* OVER the total in Western Michigan

All Treat No Trick Best Bet - Rickenbach CFB Game #306 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7:30 ET - Ball State has been ravaged with injuries and now they are forced to go with Drew Plitt at QB because Riley Neal has been downgraded to out for this game. The Cardinals also have injury issues at RB and WR. Not only that, the Cards have been hurt by injuries on the offensive line and on defense too. All the way around this is not a good spot for Ball State. As for Toledo, QB Mitchell Guadagni left the Rockets most recent game with a shoulder injury. However, even if he did not play in tonight's game, back-up QB Eli Peters has played plenty this season (including last week) and he has played well. Peters plays with confidence too and, at home, versus an over-matched Cardinals team, the Rockets can essentially "name the score" in this one. I look for them to get a huge lead and then, though they will be in a certain respect "coasting to victory" I still them piling up points. Even when Toledo turns to their ground game to grind out clock, they are likely to break off big runs. The Rockets have run for 229 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cards defense has allowed 227 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games and that includes 411 rushing yards in their most recent game. Though I generally don't lay big numbers, this is a rare case where everything does point to a blowout and Ball State, without their top QB (and other skill position guys) just doesn't have a lot of "backdoor cover" potential here. Look for the Cardinals to drop to 2-10 (SU and ATS) in October games! Note that the Rockets are 10-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 8 points and coming off a win that was by a double digit margin both SU and ATS. That system fits here as they blasted Western Michigan last week by 27 points as an underdog! There is another perfect system here too as Ball State is 0-9 ATS when they are playing with revenge against a team that is off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. That means this spot is a combined 19-0 / 100% PERFECT! Lay the points! 10* TOLEDO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #302 Tuesday CFB 10* Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 8 ET - First off, lets talk about the current injury report here. The Bulls have no one listed while the 3 guys for the Redhawks all quite important and all 3 are seniors. Of course WR James Gardner has been out since earlier this season but that was a crushing blow as he was the leader of the receiving group. The other two players are on defense and are both listed as questionable for this week. Liinebacker Junior McMullen is the middle linebacker and certainly a crucial piece of the LB corps. The defensive back is Deondre Daniels and he was the top returning cornerback. Now even without all this I still love Buffalo here. They had won 4 straight in this series but now have lost back to back games to Miami-Ohio (Bulls were down to 3rd string QB in last year's meeting). So this is a double-revenge situation and Buffalo is at home and they are laying a TD. Good value here. The Bulls are 7-1 this season and Miami-OH is just 3-5. Granted the Redhawks have played better since MAC play began but the Bulls have been playing even better (on both sides of the ball) and have the home field edge and high motivation factor here. In terms of technical support, the Redhawks are on a 1-3 ATS run in Tuesday games while the Bulls are on a 6-3 ATS run in Tuesday games. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-1 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS when they are off B2B SU wins and facing an opponent off a SU loss. Buffalo is also 7-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 2 points and are playing with revenge! 10* BUFFALO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - This one falls under the old "ugly home dog" theory but it fits well. The team nobody wants, Buffalo, is at home in a divisional game and down to their 2nd string quarterback, and they're hosting the almighty Patriots - a public team that people love to bet. You can see where I am going with this as, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the unpopular team. Of course this is not without good reason. For one thing, I fully expect the Bills to get a much better game from back-up QB Derek Anderson as he now makes his 2nd start. Additionally, Buffalo's defense has played much better than many realize. Looking at their points allowed this season (25 per game and similar to Patriots) you'd probably be surprised to hear that the Bills defense is allowing only 321 yards per game while the Pats are allowing 390 yards per game. Of course the Patriots are the much better offense but I love the fact we're getting the Bills plus two touchdowns now as a divisional home dog in their only primetime game of the season and they are at home. Having a rough start to the season, this a rare chance for Buffalo to truly shine with the ESPN cameras rolling and facing Tom Brady and Co. You know the Bills are going to bring a huge effort here and are highly motivated. The Bills are 10-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses and facing a team with a winning record. Remember that game at Minnesota this season? The Vikings were 1-0-1 at the time and the Bills were off B2B SU losses. That was the 10th straight ATS win for Buffalo in this situation and I look it go to 11-0 ATS tonight as the Bills keep this one much closer than many are expecting. By the way, in addition to the 10-0 ATS factor tonight, there are two other perfect ones worth noting! The Patriots are 0-6 ATS as divisional road favorite of more than 8 points. Also, NE head coach Bill Belichick is 0-7 ATS in road games versus a divisional opponent when that divisional foe is off a double digit loss and playing with revenge. Of course that system fits perfectly here as Buffalo got blasted by 32 at Indianapolis last week and have revenge against the Pats as they got swept by them last season. Combined edges above are 23-0 / 100% for the ugly road dog! Grab the points. 10* BUFFALO

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - Huge revenge game for Saints as, of course, they were knocked out of the playoffs last year by the Vikings. The way long-time New Orleans QB Drew Brees is playing right now I just don't see any way anyone could go against him. The Saints offense has been a machine of late and their defense also has been much improved. Of course there is no shortage of motivation here either. The kicker is that, since this game is on the road, we're getting line value as the Saints are as little as a 1 point favorite. In fact for those of you that have access to the money line, that is the way to play this one as the money line is in the pick'em range which is a great value! In terms of technical value here, the Saints last two wins have come against teams that currently have a winning record this season and that includes a blowout victory over a Redskins team that is currently 4-2. As for the Vikings, they have not beaten a team this season that currently has a winning record entering this week's action. In fact, the teams the Vikes have victories over has a combined 8-20 SU record this season. I also love the fact that New Orleans is 9-0 ATS in October games! Also, the Saints are 5-0 ATS as road favorites versus the NFC North and their head coach Sean Payton is 13-3 ATS in his career when his team is off B2B SU wins and facing a team that is also off B2B SU wins. Both teams are on winning streaks here so that system fits and I look for a road rout here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday NFL 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Of course the public will be enticed to grab the undefeated team at home here but the contrarian viewpoint is to back the dog that has a great shot at the upset and yet is catching more than a TD here. To go on the road and beat a streaking team like the Packers, you need to be strong at the QB position. That said, a team led by Aaron Rodgers at QB plus coming off a bye week is certainly a strong underdog. The Rams are finally back home but keep in mind this was preceded by 3 straight road games so Los Angeles isn't exactly "rested" at this point in time. Also, last week's big win at San Francisco was the first cover for the Rams in their last 4 games. That was a blowout win on the scoreboard but note it was fueled by turnovers. The yardage was very nearly equal in that game but the 49ers were simply done in by turnovers. Hence the line value this week. Also this is the first time this season that LA is facing a team with a winning record entering the game and that is noteworthy as the Rams are 4-8 ATS their last 12 in games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay is a long-term 22-11 SU when coming off a bye week. Also, the Packers are 8-3 ATS when a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Statistically these teams are not much different and yet when you look at the records it looks like the Rams are so much better than the Pack. That is simply not the case and the result is huge value here. 8* GREEN BAY

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #255 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET - Fantastic weather in Kansas City expected on Sunday afternoon with high temperatures rising to near 70 degrees and no precipitation and winds expected to top out at 10 to 12 mph. That said, the Broncos aren't going to stop the Chiefs on their home field. I am well aware of what happened at Denver early this season but that late rally was a sign of things to come from this powerhouse KC offense and they're not going to be stopped at Arrowhead. Besides that Denver's defense is still over-rated. The Broncos D just doesn't have the same level of personnel they had in the "glory years" and their dominating effort against a league-worst Cardinals team doesn't really tell you much. What does tell you a lot is that, prior that game, the Broncos defense had been gouged for an average of 467.3 yards per game and that included the game versus KC as well as a game against the Jets! You read that right, the Broncos allowed over 500 yards to the New York Jets! So while Kansas City is sure to get their points here the key to the value is that the Chiefs defense can't stop anybody. Well, let me correct that, just like the Broncos, they are off of one good game on defense as KC just stopped the Bengals last week. But lets not forget they previously allowed 475 yards or more in 4 of their first 6 games this season! KC averages 313 passing yards per game but is giving up 316 passing yards per game. That my friends is an invitation for an over. Of course the Broncos have revenge here and Denver is 8-3 to the over when playing with revenge. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and I look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Ultra Early Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #251 Sunday NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET (game played in London, UK) - I am going to list four names that tells you why you should play the Eagles here. Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler. The fact is that the Jaguars would take EITHER of the Eagles top two quarterbacks over their TOP quarterback. There is just no comparison and though you certainly can't base a play on just one position on the field, the fact is that QB is definitely the most important position and the Jaguars offense is a mess right now. They have struggled to the ball in each of their past two games plus have turned the ball over an average of 3.3 times per game their last 4 games. Compounding the potential QB issues here, this is a road game for both teams which certainly favors the Eagles. Philadelphia can play anytime anywhere and has turned the ball over a total of just ONE time in their past two road games. The Jaguars have turned the ball over 7 times in their past road games. Also, Jacksonville has been held to 14 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. It is hard to win when you're not scoring points. As for the Jaguars defense, they have allowed an average of 35 points and 401 yards per game in their past two road games. The Jags are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC teams. Remember when the Eagles blasted the Giants two weeks ago? That win improved Philly to 11-1 ATS when, in Game 5 through 8 of a season, they entered a game with a losing record and were facing a team that was off back to back SU losses. That system fits here too! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #125 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - Syracuse, with QB Eric Dungey leading the way, has a great offense but their defense is nothing special. That said, NC State is going to struggle to stop the Orange but, at the same time, the Wolfpack attack should have no problem putting up big points on Syracuse here. Prior to being held to just 7 points last week (faced a tough Clemson team), NC State was 5-0 this season and scoring an average of 33 points per game. The Wolfpack have allowed 26 points per game their last 4 games. Of course a big total is posted on this game but that is because there simply is unlikely to be many stops. NC State should be averaging even more points than they are as they are averaging 450 yards per game. That is nearly as much as Syracuse (475) and the Orange are averaging 43 points per game. There is not much in the way of historical or current trend data that supports the over but this is one of those games where there is more than meets the eye on the surface. NC State is going to bounce back after a frustrating game against Clemson where the Wolfpack managed just 7 points while also note that 5 of the 7 games the Orange have played this season have totaled more than 70 points! 10* OVER the total in Syracuse

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #166 Saturday 10* Top Play California Golden Bears (+) vs Washington Huskies @ 6:30 ET - Simply too many points here. You know California head coach Justin Wilcox (formerly a defensive coordinator at Washington in 2012-13) wants this game badly. The Huskies are having a solid season in Pac-12 action while Cal has been struggling but the Golden Bears can make a statement right here right now by getting revenge for beatdowns taken at the hands of Washington each of the past two seasons. This year's defense is much improved and I don't see the Huskies enjoying the success they have in past match-ups. Coach Wilcox is doing a great job with the D this season and California is allowing 24 points per game on average on the season and has held all but 2 of 7 opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Huskies have been held to 27 points or less in 5 of their 7 games against FBS foes this season and Washington has not scored more than 35 points against an FBS school this season. Based on Cal's improvements on D and the fact that the Huskies O has not been a powerhouse, I expect Washington to struggle just to win this game let alone cover the big spread. The Huskies only big road win (@ Utah by 14) was fueled by turnovers. Washington's other road games included a win by 7 and a loss at Oregon. Look for a tight one here as the Golden Bears struggles this season have been fueled by turnovers but they are off a game at Oregon State where they played a complete game on both sides of the ball. Look for that huge win over the Beavers to provide the confidence boost this team needed and the defense, solid, is already there. Now with the offense playing a complete game and building off last week's strong effort, the Bears are a dangerous home dog in this spot. In fact, the Golden Bears are 12-1 ATS when they are double digit dog and are coming off a SU win that was also an ATS cover. The system fits here and this is a superb value spot. 10* CALIFORNIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #185 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - Being a contrarian has been a key to my long-term success in this industry and, of course, most of the betting market will be looking hard at Penn State here laying less than a touchdown which would seem like a bargain since they are on their home field. I feel strongly that Iowa is going to prove to be the right side of this physical Big Ten match-up. In fact the physical nature is what I feel strongly favors the Hawkeyes here as the Nittany Lions have gotten soft far too often including the game they blew against Ohio State earlier this season. That was inexcusable and says a lot about this Nittany Lions team which has since lost as a double digit favorite versus Michigan State and barely got by Indiana last week! PSU was outgained by the Spartans and then followed that up by getting outgained by over 100 yards by the Hoosiers! The team, plain and simple, is just not clicking now as the loss to the Buckeyes really seemed to take the wind out of their sails for this season. Now they face a revenge-minded Iowa team that has the vastly superior defense. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 14 points and only 258 yards per game. The Nittany Lions have allowed at least 21 points in 4 straight games while Iowa has held 5 of 7 opponents to just 16 points or less! Upset alert here so I certainly am happy to grab the available points in this one. 8* IOWA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #187 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue Boilermakers @ Noon ET - Because it will be chilly (but not bitterly cold) and showery (but truly not heavy rain) there has been an over-reaction on this total. The weather should not be a hindrance to both of these offenses being able to operate at full efficiency as the winds will be rather light also. That said, lets take a closer look at these teams. Purdue is averaging 35.7 points and 514.3 yards per game this season! The issue for the Boilermakers is their defense has certainly been unimpressive and Purdue as been fortunate their points allowed is not higher as they are allowing 433.1 yards per game. That said, don't be surprised if the Spartans struggle to stop the Boilers solid offense but, at the same time, Michigan State scores plenty against a suspect Purdue defense. The Spartans scored just 7 points last week but that was against rival, and defensive powerhouse, Michigan. Prior to that Michigan State had averaged 29.3 points per game at home this season. Also, Purdue is off their huge upset of Ohio State. That said, while their offense should keep rolling, the Boilermakers D may not have a lot left in the tank after doing a surprisingly good job versus the Buckeyes last week in terms of keeping them out of the end zone BUT they allowed 546 yards! The Purdue offense has now averaged 40.8 points per game their past 5 games. The over is 14-7 in Boilermakers road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. Purdue O/U is also a long-term 31-17 (including 4-1 in recent seasons) when their spread in a game is between +3 and -3. The over is 4-1 this season when the Spartans are a favorite. 8* OVER the total in Michigan State

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #131 Friday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) @ Florida Atlantic Owls @ 6:30 ET - The Owls, in essence, have lost their leader on each side of the ball. Florida Atlantic's LB Azeez Al-Shaair was the Defensive Player of the Year for Conference USA and he is out for the year with a torn ACL. Owls QB Chris Robison is questionable for this game with an ankle injury but he was actually benched in Florida Atlantic's 31-7 loss at Marshall last week which was also the first Owls game without Al-Shaair. The point is that even if Robison was healthy there is already confidence lost in him due to poor play. The Owls are facing a Louisiana Tech team that is hell bent on revenge here. Last season the Bulldogs got embarrassed at home 48-23 by Florida Atlantic even though Louisiana Tech outgained them 512 to 415. You read that right...the Bulldogs outgained the Owls by nearly 100 yards but lost by 25 points on the scoreboard. Indeed it is payback time tonight and, with Florida Atlantic having issues with arguably the most important player on each side of the ball, this one should be a road rout for Louisiana Tech and I am happy to grab the points. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and also 7-1 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points and Florida Atlantic is also 1-8 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The line has been moving toward the Owls and in true contrarian fashion I am going the other way and grabbing the Bulldogs! 10* LOUISIANA TECH

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #104 Thursday NFL 10* Houston Texans (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The Dolphins are going with Brock Osweiler at QB as Ryan Tannehill is still dealing with his shoulder injury. Though Osweiler has done fairly well since stepping in, both of his starts were at home in Miami. Now he and the Dolphins are in the road and in what will be a very hostile environment for Osweiler and his teammates. Osweiler is a former Texan that had a huge contract and failed in Houston and his relationship with Texans head coach Bill O'Brien was not good to say the least. Suffice to say O'Brien and the entire Houston team are "amped up" for this game. It is a primetime weeknight game and they will make the most of it. The Texans defense is fierce including great pass rush abilities and this will force Osweiler into mistakes. Being without their two top wide receivers is also a detriment to the Dolphins offense for this one. Note that Miami is averaging a paltry 14.7 points per game on 242 yards per game on the road this season. The Texans offense is averaging 22.1 points per game on 372 yards per game this season. Houston has won 4 straight games while the Dolphins have lost 3 of their last 4 games including each of their last two road games. Miami is on a 5-9 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and the Dolphins also are on a 3-8 ATS run as an away dog. The Texans have won 7 of the 8 meetings between these teams including all 4 at home and there is some -7 out there as of early Thursday morning. Grab it and look for a home blowout here as DeShaun Watson has a big game at QB for the Texans. Miami has allowed an average of 467 yards per game their past two games. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Game #114 Thursday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears, as a big dog here, could have used some help from mother nature to help limit the potent West Virginia offense. Had this game been Friday night instead of Thursday night they would likely get it as rain is expected. However, Thursday night is expected to have spectacular weather conditions with no rain and light winds and this angry Mountaineers teams won't hesitate to run up the score on Baylor. West Virginia is coming off their first loss of the season, a dismal loss at Iowa State two weeks ago. The Mountaineers have been fired up to get back on the field but had to wait an extra week because of their bye week. Don't be surprised if West Virginia looks like they've been shot out of a cannon when this game gets going. They are fired up and a primetime weeknight game is going to have Morgantown rocking tonight! The Bears are 3-3 this season but the 3 wins were against Abilene Christian, UTSA, and Kansas State. Every time that Baylor has faced tougher competition they've lost. The 3 losses have come by an average of 17.3 points per game and the Mountaineers 5 wins this season have come by an average margin of 22.8 points per game. In fact, all except a road win have come by at least a 16 point margin. With this line dropping down from 14 to 13.5 and, considering the highly motivated situation for the Mountaineers, I won't hesitate to go to my top play rating for this one. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in road games with a total between 63.5 and 70 points. The Mountaineers improve to 4-1 ATS in games played on turf this season. 10* WEST VIRGINIA

Rare Tuesday CFB Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ South Alabama Jaguars @ 8 ET - The Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker for the season (ACL) but Sawyer Smith had already had some experience this season and had performed quite well. The fact that he had some struggles in his first start, on the road at Liberty, is actually leading to some line value here. Look for Smith to perform much better after getting that road start out of the way and he has had extra time to prepare since Troy is off a bye. It certainly will help that Smith and the powerful Trojans are going up against a weak defense. The Jaguars defense ranks in the BOTTOM 20 out of all 130 teams in FBS for defensive efficiency. Overall, South Alabama has allowed 446 yards per game this season. The Jags run defense is particularly poor and the Trojans powerful ground game can take advantage. Troy is on a 6-0 ATS run in Tuesday games. The Trojans enter this game having allowed just 19.7 points per game their last 6 games. South Alabama enters this game off a rare big win and previously had allowed an average of 47 points per game in their first 6 games this season. The Jaguars are on a 5-13 ATS run in conference action and will prove to be outclassed again by the class of the conference as the Trojans get revenge for last year's loss. Last year the Jags caught Troy after their big upset of LSU. South Alabama is not so lucky this season in terms of the situational set-up and the Trojans roll big here! Lay the big points even though they are on the road. 10* TROY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 8:15 ET - This line looked funny to many when it first was posted as, even though the Falcons have had a rather tough start this season, they are still at home here and Atlanta was in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and made the playoffs last season. Considering those factors as well as the fact that the Giants went 3-13 last year and have started this year 1-5, it is no wonder why Atlanta is getting plenty of love from the public in this one. Don't be fooled ladies and gentlemen as this game was priced this way for a reason and the sharp money is on the Giants. On Thursday night football the G-men were embarrassed by the division rival Eagles but their season is not over yet. Both Philly and the Cowboys lost yesterday and now have losing records on the season. The Giants have a shot at the NFC East first-place Redskins next week. In other words, New York knows that it just takes back to back wins to be right back in the thick of things in their divisional race. After getting embarrassed in the game against the Eagles last Thursday, the Giants D is undoubtedly going to bring a huge effort this week and they do have the better defense in this match-up with the Falcons. Although Atlanta has a bye on deck, they are actually just 1-5 ATS when playing the week before a bye. The Giants, when a road dog in non-divisional action, are on a 5-1 ATS run. The Giants are also on an incredible 9-0-1 ATS run when they are off a Thursday game. The Falcons are off a key win versus the Buccaneers are Atlanta is on an 0-7 ATS run after facing Tampa Bay. That means we have a combined 16-0 / 100% PERFECT edge here in favor of the road dog! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #464 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The betting markets tend to have a short term memory and so a total like this ends up being over-inflated. Yes, the Chiefs are off the wild Monday night game with the Patriots but their two prior games were unders. Also, each of the Bengals last two games stayed under the total. Of course statistically one can make a case for plenty of points to be scored here but, keep in mind, each of these teams LOST their last game because they gave up too many points. All each of these teams is hearing entering this Monday night game is how they can't stop anyone. The point is that this is when professional pride kicks in and, with the Sunday night cameras rolling, these D's are going to bring a huge effort tonight. Both teams certainly respect their opponents offense here too so there will be a little bit of cat and mouse keep away where you may seem each team playing for short passes and some running plays mixed in in an attempt to win the game through ball control. After what happened last week, the fact is that neither one of these teams is interested in getting involved in a shootout. Keep in mind, although the Chiefs offense has struggled this season, the Bengals offense has averaged only 303.5 yards per game their past two games. Also, the Chiefs had allowed an average of just 21.3 points per game their 3 prior games before getting throttled at New England. The under has cashed 11 of 16 when the Bengals face a team with a winning record. Also, in games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, Cincinnati's game have stayed under in 9 of their last 11. Additionally, 14 of the Chiefs last 20 home games have stayed under the total. With two teams whose defenses are each being "challenged" coming into this game, this big number should prove to be far too many points. 10* UNDER the total in Kansas City

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #469 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 4:05 ET - A pair of hot teams matched up here but I like the value with the road dog that also has the better offense. The Saints have won 4 straight games and also are on an 8-0 ATS run in October games. The Ravens have played well this season but are still just 3-2 SU their last 5 games and they have a knack for falling into slumps as we get closer to the mid-point of the season. Baltimore is on a 3-8 ATS run in October games. The Ravens are also 2-6 ATS in non-conference games. When the Saints enter a game on a wining streak of 2 or more SU games, they have gone 9-4 ATS. Keep in mind New Orleans just had that huge MNF performance from Drew Brees and are now off their bye week. They are rested and ready while the Ravens have expended a lot of effort the past 3 weeks as all 3 games were on the road. Baltimore has defeated the Saints each of the last 3 meetings including in the Superdome against Brees and Company in 2014. That said, this triple-revenge game goes to the hungry rested road dog. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #466 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Viking are off back to back wins against NFC foes and have a big game on deck hosting another NFC foe as the Saints are up next for Minnesota. That said, a road trip to face an AFC foe that doesn't come across as "overly imposing" is unlikely to bring out the best in the Vikings. I love grabbing "ugly home dogs" in situations like this and the Jets should bring home the cash for us. New York enters off back to back wins and, with each victory, confidence is growing. That said, unlike the Vikings, the Jets do not have a big game on deck as they face the Bears next. In other words, New York is fully focused on this game especially because they won't be home again until mid-November. Look for the Jets to bring their "A game" and they are on a 10-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season plus the Jets are on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Vikings are on a long-term run of 10-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This is a contrarian, anti-public play as you know they'll be on the Vikings and you know what usually happens when the public has an enticing game like this to grab hold of...they usually go down in flames. Make the sharp play here. 8* NEW YORK JETS

Ultra Early Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 9:30 *AM* ET in London, UK - The Titans are off an embarrassing 21-0 shellacking that they took at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore last week. Tennessee has now lost back to back games and a change of scenery is absolutely the best thing that can happen for a team that is struggling at the present time. For the Chargers, the last thing they needed was a trip to London, UK as Los Angeles had been rolling with 3 straight wins and demolished Cleveland last Sunday. Now LA tries to maintain focus and momentum heading across the pond. The Titans are 4-0 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive losses. The Chargers are facing a revenge-minded Tennessee team that lost by 8 two seasons ago when these teams met in San Diego. Payback time in London is on tap Sunday but I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS the week before a bye. Also, in games 5 through 9 of a season, the Chargers are 0-7 ATS when off a game where they scored more than 35 points and now facing team that does NOT have a winning record. Look for the 3-3 Titans to come up with at least the cover here. Combined edges of 15-0 ATS here in favor of the underdog! I'll take it! 8* TENNESSEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #368 Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) @ Washington State Cougars @ 7:30 ET - People will shy away from Oregon here since they're off the big win at Washington last week and it was a revenge game. However, those same people may have forgotten that the Ducks are on a mission right now thanks to a healthy Justin Herbert at QB and they have big-time revenge on their minds this week because they've been beaten badly by the Cougars each of the past two seasons! Look for Oregon to roll here as the Ducks, in my opinion, have faced tougher Pac-12 match-ups than Washington State has thus far. As a result, Oregon is the more battle-tested team in this match-up and their only loss this season (to Stanford) was truly a game the Ducks never should have lost. They've showed great resilience ever since then. I also like the fact that Washington State is 6-0 ATS this season so they're falling into public favor as a result and they're getting some extra shading in this match-up they really don't deserve. The Cougars luck at the betting window runs out this week in my opinion! The Cougars are 1-3 ATS off a bye week and 5-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or less points. Oregon is 46-23 in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Ducks are also 16-6 ATS in a road game with posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 10* OREGON

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #315 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in East Carolina Pirates vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 7 ET - The Golden Knights are 6-0 this season but they are in a traditional "sandwich spot" here as they just barely survived a tough game at Memphis last week - 1 point win - and UCF now has a bye week on deck. It would be easy for the Central Florida defense to overlook the Pirates here as they just won't have a lot of intensity left in the tank after hanging on for dear life in the win over the Tigers last week. With that said, I expect this game to turn into an absolute shootout. The Pirates can score (at least when they are at home), they just can't stop anybody from scoring! East Carolina has averaged 30 points per game at home this season but the Pirates have allowed an average of 42 points per game in their last 3 games overall. Central Florida has a dynamic offense that is averaging 45.7 points per game this season. The Golden Knights will have no trouble moving the ball on the struggling Pirates defense but don't be surprised when East Carolina (with a solid aerial attack) is also gaining big yardage in this game and moving the ball up and down the field. The over is 31-18 in Central Florida's October games. The last two meetings between these teams flew over the total and the average points scored was 80 in those games! In games with a posted total of 64.5 points or less this season, the Pirates are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. More of the same expected on Saturday in what should a high-scoring shootout. 10* OVER the total in East Carolina

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #353 Saturday 8* UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (+) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - The Mountaineers are an amazing 5-0 ATS this season but that has them over-valued in this spot. Appalachian State is laying nearly 4 touchdowns here even though they're facing a UL-Lafayette team that has only struggled twice this season and those tough performances were against SEC teams. App St is a good team but they're certainly not on the level of SEC teams like the Mississippi State Bulldogs or Alabama Crimson Tide teams that beat the Ragin Cajuns. Note that in UL-Lafayette's other 4 games this season they are 3-1 and the lone loss came by just 2 points! The Ragin Cajuns have averaged 46.3 points per game in their 4 games that were against non-SEC competition. UL-Lafayette was beaten badly by App State the past two seasons but they've closed the gap this season and that has not been properly factored into this line because, right now, the betting markets are enamored with the 100% ATS Mountaineers. Appalachian State is a long-term 1-5 ATS as a favorite in a range of 21.5 to 31 points. The Ragin Cajuns are a long-term 6-3 ATS in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season. 8* UL LAFAYETTE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #383 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ Noon ET - The Sooners have averaged 48 points this season. So what's the problem in Norman? A defense that got scorched back to back weeks before their bye week. It culminated with a loss to Texas in that final game before the OU bye and that led to the firing of their defensive coordinator. The guy stepping in as in the interim, Ruffin McNeil, is a players coach and they are going to fight like hell for him on Saturday. Look for Oklahoma to put forth a huge effort on defense while the offense simply continues to roll. The Sooners are an offensive machine and TCU, now 3-3 on the season, is down some this year. The result is a road rout of huge proportions here. A little uncomfortable if you have to lay more than a TD here? Sure that is understandable but Oklahoma should win this game by at least 17 points as the Horned Frogs are averaging just 15.7 points per game their last 3 games. Texas Christian University is on a 2-16 ATS run in home games. Look for the Sooners to improve to 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with TCU. 8* OKLAHOMA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #307 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams @ 9 ET - The Broncos and Rams, in terms of offensive plays run per game, rank as two of the faster paced teams in CFB as both are in the Top 20. The weather is going to be fantastic in Boise tonight. The Broncos have already shown they won't take their foot off the gas at home when they have a chance to run up the score. Boise State beat Connecticut here earlier this season by a count of 62-7 and the Broncos totaled over 800 yards in that white-washing! The fact is that the Rams are very poor defensively and won't be able to stop the Broncos powerful offense. Last season these teams combined for 104 points in regulation of an eventual 59-52 OT win for Boise. Colorado State, though poor defensively, does have a respectable offense that is averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game. The over is 4-2 / 67% when the Rams enter a game off 2 or more consecutive wins. The over is 4-2 / 67% when the Broncos face a team with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Boise

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS as a home dog of less than 7 points when playing a non-divisional opponent. Arizona is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. As for the Broncos, under head coach Vance Joseph, they are 1-9 ATS in road games. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Denver is 2-12 ATS when they are a favorite against a team that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin and that also is playing with revenge. That system fits the Cards perfectly here. Combining all the edges here and you have a 37-4 (90%) spot in favor of the hungry home dog here. Yes, both teams have been struggling this season but the Cardinals view this game as a rare chance to shine at home in prime-time action with all eyes of the football world watching. The Cards will be ready to go in a big way here. 10* ARIZONA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #304 Thursday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - At first glance this line looks a little on the high side. Of course you know what that means and long-time followers also know that I have had plenty of success through the years by being a contrarian. That is what I am doing here as I lay the big points but certainly it is not without good reason. The Panthers defense has been absolutely awful this season and the Red Wolves should roll. Arkansas State is 12-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 20 points when they are facing an opponent that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Red Wolves are on a 7-1 ATS run in October games and a 3-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Georgia State is on a 1-4-1 ATS run in SunBelt Conference games. Combined edges here are 26-4 (87%) in favor of a home blowout in this one. 8* ARKANSAS STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The over is 7-1 in the Niners last 8 games. The over is 28-12 in the Packers last 40 games. Green Bay is averaging 300 passing yards per game this season and San Francisco had allowed 276 passing yards per game before holding Arizona in check last week. However, a lot of the reason for the Cardinals not accumulating a lot of yardage on this suspect 49ers defense is because five San Francisco turnovers essentially handed the Cards the game! The point is that Aaron Rodgers should be able to throw all over the Niners in this match-up. However, don't be surprised if CJ Beathard keeps the 49ers hanging around in this games (which is why I like the over here). San Francisco has averaged 294 passing yards per game the past two weeks. Also, the Niners have run for at least 147 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Packers have allowed at least 29 points in 3 of their last 4 games while San Francisco is allowing 29.2 points per game on the season. The 49ers are 9-4 to the over as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Packers are 9-3 to the over in their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. With their bye week on deck, Rodgers and Company won't hesitate to go all out here and this one turns into a "track meet" as a result with both teams moving quickly up and down the field. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 8* New England Patriots (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The set up here is perfect. The Chiefs are 5-0 this season. Kansas City is also off of a "phony final" where they beat the Jaguars by 16 but were outgained by 78 yards. Patriots QB Tom Brady will be in "attack mode" all night on Sunday as the Chiefs pass defense is allowing a ridiculous 343 passing yards per game this season. New England has revenge here as they lost by 15 points to KC here in Foxboro to open up the 2017 NFL season. That is a loss that Bill Belichick certainly hasn't forgot and he rates a significant edge over Andy Reid in my opinion. Just like when he was with the Eagles, Reid has done a good job in most regular season games and then struggles in the post-season. Of course this is not a post-season game but it will play out like one as this is a big game in terms of vying for early season AFC supremacy. I don't see Belichick and Brady losing this game! The Chiefs are a long-term 22-37 ATS against AFC East teams. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 11-2 ATS in games where their posted total is 49.5 points or higher. Of course this game has a total much higher than that so that angle is definitely in play here and in a high-scoring game I'll take the veteran QB and the better head coach over the dynamic (but still inexperienced) Pat Mahomes and a head coach that is not known for winning games like this. Week 1 of last season was an aberration. 8* NEW ENGLAND

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Jaguars are off a 16 point loss at Kansas City but Jacksonville actually outgained the Chiefs by 78 yards! The Jags were simply done in by turnovers but that is unlikely to be an issue today. Jacksonville turned the ball over 5 times last week but the Cowboys have forced only 4 turnovers TOTAL in their 5 games this season. Dallas only lost by 3 at Houston last week but it was a deceiving final score. The Cowboys got the push ATS in that game but were very fortunate for that as the Texans failed many times in the red zone. Houston outgained Dallas by 170 yards in the game and should have the game by about two TDs. Last week's "false final" results involving both of these teams is what is leading to solid line value here. Keep in mind the Jaguars should have beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last season but blew a big lead inexplicably. In other words this is a team that was one step away from the Super Bowl last season and we're getting them off a loss here. As for the Cowboys, this is a team that continues to be in disarray and just can't find any solid footing or consistency. Their offensive line is not near what it use to be and this will be an issue as they face the attacking Jaguars defense. Dallas has just 1 ATS win in their 5 games this season. The Jaguars appear poised to improve to 10-5 SU and ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #264 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Falcons have lost 3 straight games and the Buccaneers have lost back to back games so certainly something has to give here! Look for Atlanta to be the team to get back on track as they take advantage of home field and they catch Tampa Bay sluggish coming out of the bye week. Sometimes teams need a bye but when you get blasted like the Buccaneers did two weeks ago (48-10) at Chicago, it is actually better to have a chance to play the next week and get back on track. Instead TB is left wondering why they can't stop anybody as they've allowed an average of 358 passing yards per game this season! That creates a complete mismatch here with the Falcons having Matt Ryan at QB and able to take advantage of this glaring Bucs weakness. Atlanta has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the average margin has been 10.7 points per game. Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 games played in domes. While the Falcons defense has struggled too, the Bucs defense has been even worse and the TB offense is starting to come back down to earth after a surprisingly successful start to this season. As for the Falcons offense, it remains a consistent threat week in and week out and that will prove to be the difference here as well. 8* ATLANTA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1 ET - Don't be fooled by the Browns low point total last week. Cleveland gained over 400 yards in the 12-9 win and also allowed over 400 yards. The fact the game landed on just 21 points is helping to lead to line value in their match-up with the Chargers this week. The Browns have averaged 451.5 yards per game the past 2 weeks and had scored 42 points at Oakland before last week's "fluke" result on the scoreboard. Both of these teams have had issues with pass defense this season and Cleveland has allowed an average of 360 passing yards per game the past two weeks plus allowed over 300 yards through the air against the Steelers in Week 1. Los Angeles is allowing an average of 270 passing yards per game on the season. The Chargers offensive production is the key to their success. LA is averaging 27.4 points per game this season as the passing game is averaging nearly 300 yards per game through the air! The Browns are 6-2 to the over in games where their line ranges from +3 to -3. The Chargers are 4-1 to the over this season and with mild weather expected for this one a shootout can be expected. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #117 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Virginia Cavaliers vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET - Neither team is allowing a lot of points this season so this total has been kept lower than it should be. While each of the defenses certainly deserve some respect, lets not forget about the points these teams have been putting on the board. The Hurricanes, since their season-opening loss to LSU, have won 5 straight games and they've averaged scoring 46.4 points per game during this hot streak. The Cavaliers have struggled at times on the road but they've played 3 home games (one was not in Charlottesville but the Cavs were the host), and they've averaged 38 points per game in those 3 games. The over is 5-1 in Hurricanes games this season. Also, the total dropping to 47.5 (as of Friday evening) is certainly not insignificant as 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 48 points. Weather will be perfect in Charlottesville too. My expectation here is that Miami comes out a little flat on defense after working hard for the big win over Florida State last week. The Canes also could get caught looking ahead to their bye week. As a result, Virginia takes advantage and makes an early push here as the Cavs are rest off their bye week but also fired up to respond after a 35-21 loss at NC State prior to the bye. This type of scenario, from a situational standpoint, is likely to result in a back and forth game with plenty of points! Play OVER the total in Virginia

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #176 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - The Mountaineers are a ranked team and an undefeated team and so when they opened up as a rather small favorite here of course the betting masses jumped all over them. This has led to even more value here with an Iowa State team that is much better than their 2-3 record indicates! The key to that value is that the Cyclones have played a much tougher schedule than West Virginia has so far this season. That is why West Virginia has been a double digit favorite in 4 of their 5 games this season while Iowa State has been an underdog in 4 of their 5 games and that includes being a double digit underdog each of the last 3 times the Cyclones were a dog. Iowa State enters this game with added confidence after the big win at Oklahoma State last week. While some may expect them to now fall flat at home, this is the Cyclones only home game in a span of 5 weeks as they've been on the road for back to back weeks plus they have a bye week on deck. That said, Iowa State is going to make the most of this opportunity to host a ranked and undefeated Big 12 foe! As for the Mountaineers, they also have a bye on deck but that situation can play out much different mentally when you are an undefeated team. West Virginia is likely already thinking about their bye and could look right past a Cyclones team they have enjoyed plenty of success against in recent meetings. The Mountaineers, in fact, are known for this is in recent seasons as they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 against teams with a losing record while the Cyclones are known for stepping up against tougher competition as they are 11-2 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record! 10* IOWA STATE

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #184 Saturday 8* Memphis Tigers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida is ranked in the top 10 and is undefeated on the season. Of course the Golden Knights are getting plenty of attention in this spot as a result. However, 4-2 Memphis is playing this game with double revenge from last season as they lost in the regular season and in the conference championship game. Finally the Tigers get UCF in Memphis and I expect them to make the most of this opportunity. The Tigers statistically compare well to the Golden Knights and the home team has been the SU winner in each of the last 9 games Memphis has played (not including the bowl game of course). The Tigers are 16-2 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points when facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .750 on the year. Also, the visitor in this series is on an 0-5 ATS run. In other words, it is a great time to fade Central Florida in this one as the angles are 21-2 ATS in favor of the Tigers in the home dog role here. 8* MEMPHIS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ Noon ET - After the home loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma State will be in full-on bounce-back mode at Kansas State Saturday. The Cowboys also have the add motivation of revenge here as they suffered an outright upset loss as a home favorite of nearly 3 TDs in their game versus the Wildcats in Stillwater last year. Suffice to say it is now payback time! Kansas State has lost 3 straight games and their only two SU wins this season came when they were favorites in the 3 TD range. The Cowboys are 8-1-1 ATS when they are playing with revenge and facing a team that has a losing record on the season. Kansas State has been a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7.5 points just twice in recent seasons but they lost both games and were blown out by an average margin of 12.5 points per game in those two contests. I expect another home loss by double digits here as the Cowboys get revenge. OSU is averaging 44 points per game this season while Kansas State is averaging exactly half as much. Indeed the Wildcats are averaging only 22 points per game. The Cats offense simply won't be able to keep up with the 'Boys in this one! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #110 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - From mid-September to late-October, this is the only home game for Tulsa. The fact that they are getting to host a conference foe that is currently a Top 25 team and it is a weeknight game with the ESPN cameras rolling just adds to the factor that the Golden Hurricane are going to be sky high for this game. Yes Tulsa's record looks bad but they've played a much tougher schedule than South Florida has and the Golden Hurricane have been done in by turnovers. Each of the last two games for Tulsa have been "phony finals" where the final score has not been commensurate with the yardage for the game. Also, the Golden Hurricane lost by just 7 points at Texas earlier this season. As for the Bulls, they won by 16 at UMass last week but allowed nearly 500 yards to the Minutemen. 5 turnovers is what led to the big win for South Florida. Their two prior wins were both by 7 points or less and those were teams they were favored to beat by 2 or 3 TDs. In other words, the Bulls are coming into this game over-valued while the Golden Hurricane are certainly under-valued at this point in the season. Look for redshirt freshman Seth Boomer to play much better in his 2nd start at home after having to play on the road last week. Tulsa was a 17 point dog at Houston in that game and led the game outright by 9 points in the 4th quarter before things came unraveled due to turnovers. This Golden Hurricane team is so hungry and has proven they can hang with teams like Houston and Texas on the road. In other words, facing USF at home is certainly not going to be as tough as a task as those games were and Tulsa covered both of those games. The Golden Hurricane are 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. South Florida is 2-6 ATS in a road game with a posted total in the range of 56.5 to 63 points. 10* TULSA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles have won 3 straight SU in this series. With this number dropping back down to a -2.5 on Philly, there is great value with the small road favorite in this one. Philadelphia has lost back to back games SU and has failed to 4 straight games but that has led to line value in this spot. Home field has not meant a lot in this series and, that said, laying less than Field Goal with the super bowl champs is excellent line value. Yes the Eagles are banged up at RB but they still have plenty of talent at the skill positions plus a powerful offensive line and one of the better defensive lines in the league. The Giants are just 1-4 SU this season and off a disheartening late loss at Carolina after rallying back for a shot at the victory. That is a tough loss to bounce back from and this is particularly true on a short week. Look for Eagles QB Carson Wentz to deliver a huge game here and look for Philly to dominate in the trenches as Philadelphia improves to 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 Thursday games. The Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS their last 2 Thursday games. 10* PHILADELPHIA 

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Thursday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 7:30 ET - Though QB Alan Bowman is now listed as doubtful for this game for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are expected to have McLane Carter available as well as Jeff Duffey. The latter is very athletic and could give the TCU defense some trouble with his running ability. Keep in mind, the Red Raiders have been piling up yardage (as usual) this season no matter whom has been under center. Texas Tech enters this game having averaged 48.4 points and 591.4 yards per game on the year! While the Horned Frogs have a solid defense, it is certainly not as strong as we've seen in years past with TCU. The Red Raiders are getting as much as 7.5 here as of early game day morning and Texas Tech is seeking revenge for a 27-3 loss at home in Lubbock last season! Note that the Red Raiders did outgain the Horned Frogs in that one so the final score is truly not commensurate with the way the game played out. Also, Texas Tech won their most recent to TCU. Additionally, while the Red Raiders have perennially bad Kansas on deck, the Horned Frogs might be peeking ahead to their huge game against Oklahoma coming up next week. The Red Raiders are 6-3 their last 9 as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Horned Frogs are on an ugly 2-14 ATS run in home games! 8* TEXAS TECH

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - The Mountaineers look very impressive this season but other than their season opener versus Penn State, Appalachian State has faced a very weak schedule. The Red Wolves had to face Alabama, the best team in the nation, but also have faced tougher teams than the Mountaineers in their other games. That said, the betting markets are enamored with Appalachian State here because they have a balanced offense, have put up a ton of points this season, and the Mountaineers have the better record. However, strength of schedule is super important in analyzing college football and with Appalachian State climbing all the way up to a 10 point favorite the value is with the home dog in a big way here. Consider that the Red Wolves, other than versus the Crimson Tide, have allowed an average of only 22.3 points per game in their other 4 games. Also, Arkansas State is off of a loss to Georgia Southern but they did outgain the Eagles by over 100 yards in that defeat and the Red Wolves got their offense going in a big way. A home dog in a rare primetime game nationally televised on ESPN2, you can bet that Arkansas State is ready to go here! As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS and they also are on a 7-0 ATS run in October games! Give me the big home dog in this one! 8* ARKANSAS STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are coming off of their bye week but are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 after a bye. The Saints have a bye week on deck and are 7-3 ATS when playing the week before a bye. We also have good value here in that Washington has overachieved early this season while the Saints have underachieved early this season. Yes New Orleans is 3-1 on the season but everyone remembers their opening game loss at home versus Tampa Bay and then how the Saints barely beat the Browns in Week 2. This is why New Orleans is less than a TD favorite hosting the Redskins here while last season they were favored by nearly double digits when they hosted Washington! Certainly one could argue that the Redskins have the better defense in this match-up but the Saints are the better team on offense and I expect Washington will not be able to keep up here. Keep in mind, this is just the 2nd time this season that the Redskins are on the road. Their first road game was against an Arizona team that is 1-4 on the year and playing at New Orleans is certainly a much tougher draw than facing the Cardinals at Arizona! The Saints are also 7-0 ATS in their last 8 October games while Washington is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games on Monday night football. That is an 11-0 / 100% perfect situation favoring the home team in this one! 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #476 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - After an 0-3 start the Texans got a key win on a last second field goal last week at Indianapolis. That is the type of victory that can really get a team going with momentum. If you haven't lived in Texas in recent years you wouldn't understand how important this match-up is to the Texans. They truly feel like they always play 'second fiddle" to the Cowboys fans in the state of Texas. After the Oilers left Houston and went to Tennessee to become the Titans even more and more fans in Texas pledged their allegiance to the Cowboys. Sure the Texans have a huge following in the Houston area but they really do get tired of being the "ugly step-sibling" to the Cowboys. That is why a non-conference match-up like this is actually a huge game for Houston especially with it being in primetime under the Sunday night lights! The Texans are averaging 336 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Cowboys have averaged just 137.5 passing yards per game on the road this season. Dallas is an ugly 1-3 ATS this season. The Texans are on a 6-3 ATS run in October games. 8* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Rams are undefeated on the season and I am not saying they necessarily lose outright here but I do feel strongly that this is going to be a very tough game for them. Of course the Seahawks are truly a shell of the team they once were but the Rams crushed the Hawks at Seattle last year 42-7. That was the worst defeat in 8 years with Carroll at head coach for the Seahawks and it came on their home field too! You know Seattle is going to be rocking for this game and motivation, emotion, home field edge are all things that can go a long way in a game like this. Seattle would love nothing more than to avenge that embarrassing loss and put the first loss into the ledger of a division rival. As strong as the Rams offense has been, they did allow nearly 400 passing yards to the Vikings last week! The week before that LA allowed 141 rushing yards. The point is that this Rams defense has certainly shown a few holes in recent games and Russell Wilson and company will be looking to take advantage. At the same time, the Seahawks defense will bring their A game. Yes they are not what they once were but the entire team will be up for this one especially after the ugly incident with safety Earl Thomas last week. Teams really "come together" after incidents like that and this team is going to rally this week. The Seahawks have won 13 of the last 18 home meetings with the Rams SU and here they're getting 7 plus the hook which is good value as Los Angeles is a great team but is a little too over-valued by the markets right now. 8* SEATTLE 

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49'ers vs Arizona Cardinals @ 4:25 ET - The Cardinals are the only NFL team that has yet to have a game result in an over. Of course odds are that this can't continue for too long into the season! This looks like the perfect spot for their first one! San Francisco actually got a solid effort from Beathard (replacement for the injured Garappolo) last week other than the turnovers. He threw for nearly 300 yards. The Cardinals defense is allowing 23.5 points per game this season. The 49ers defense has allowed at least 24 points in all four of their games this season. San Francisco has allowed 33.5 points per game the past two week. The Niners didn't use the ground game as much last week but it has been solid this season and the Cardinals run defense is not good. The SF pass defense has been their weak link this season and Josh Rosen is getting more comfortable with each game under center for Arizona. Keep in mind Larry Fitzgerald and JJ Nelson each dropped TD passes from Rosen last week. This Cardinals team has been on the cusp of more points and they'll get them today against a suspect Niners pass defense. The Cards defense won't be able to stop a Niners offense that has scored at least 27 points each of the last 3 weeks. Take advantage of the low total here. The over is 7-2 in San Francisco's games in weeks 5 through 9 of a season. The over is 11-5 in Arizona's road games. The over is 3-0 in the 49ers last 3 games overall. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs are undefeated on the season but coming off of a short week and a last minute win at division rival Denver on Monday night. Kansas City also has a big game on deck with the Patriots! KC has won each of the last 3 meetings with Jaguars so this is a triple revenge spot for Jacksonville. Keep in mind, none of the 4 teams that KC has beaten currently have a wining record. As for the Jags, they've beaten the Patriots (3-2 and arguably better than that record indicates of course) and they lost to a Titans team that is now 3-1 on the season. The Jaguars were one of the top teams in the AFC last season and they are well aware of the undefeated record of the Chiefs here. Public bettors will be enamored with backing a home team laying just a field goal considering they haven't lost a game yet this season. The fact is that the road dog is the way to go here as Jacksonville it highly motivated and the Chiefs are truly in a tough scheduling spot. Also, as good as Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense has been, the Kansas City defense is one of the worst in the league right now while the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league on defense. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #349 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Virginia Tech Hokies vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 8 ET - Notre Dame if off of a huge effort on defense versus Stanford as they held them to just 229 yards last week. After such a strong effort in such a big game, it is only normal for a drop-off to occur in the next game. While that would normally make Virginia Tech worth a look as a side play here, I simply don't trust their defense. The Hokies came up big at Duke last week but they allowed over 600 yards at Old Dominion the prior week. Virginia Tech is allowing over 300 passing yards per game this season even though two of their games were against Old Dominion and William & Mary! Couple that with the fact that Notre Dame is getting their passing game going (over 275 yards passing in 3 of last 4 games) and the fact that the Irish ground game has totaled over 240 yards in 3 straight games, and you have the makings of a back and forth shootout. Light winds and mild temperatures are expected in Blacksburg as well as very little chance of precipitation so the set up is perfect for a high-scoring game. The Hokies had to go to their back-up QB last week but that worked out just fine as he threw for over 300 yards. Virginia Tech is averaging scoring 38 points per game this season but they won't be able to stop the ND offense here. The Fighting Irish are 5-2 to the over the last 7 times they've been a road favorite and this looks like another one here as the over improves to 3-1 in the Hokies last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Virginia Tech

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Aggies (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are 5-0 this season and the Aggies are just 3-2 and yet opened up as nearly a TD favorite. Long-time followers know where I am going with this one! Texas A & M has played the tougher schedule and also is very tough at home. The odds makers know this too and that is why this line is priced like this. The Aggies have had time to adjust now under new head coach Jimbo Fisher and, keep in mind, the two losses that Texas A & M has on its ledger came against Clemson and Alabama! The Aggies put up nearly 400 yards against the Crimson Tide and did reach 500 yards against the Tigers! Those are very impressive numbers for any offense going against a defense like each of those teams possess. That said, there is great value here because I don't believe the Wildcats offense can keep with the Aggies here. Kentucky has averaged just 313.5 yards per game on offense the past two weeks. Texas A & M is averaging over 500 yards per game this season despite having to play Clemson and Alabama this year! The Wildcats are off of a huge win versus South Carolina last week but 4 Gamecocks turnovers were the key to the victory as the yardage was nearly equal. This is a high value spot for a play because right now the betting markets are enamored with the Wildcats but the unranked Aggies are favored at home for a reason and they prove that to everyone here. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Kentucky is a long-term 7-15 ATS. The Aggies are already 4-1 ATS this season and are coming off of their first non-cover this season. That makes this the perfect time to back them! 10* TEXAS A & M

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #355 Saturday 8* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 4 ET - Of course this line looks ultra favorable to the public in terms of backing the home team. After all, Colorado is the team off to a hot start and Arizona State already has a couple blemishes on its record. The key here though, as per usual, is what you find when you dig a little deeper. The Sun Devils have played a much tougher schedule so far this season in comparison with the Buffaloes. Also, Arizona State is still hungry for that first road win under coach Herm Edwards I must admit Edwards has done a better job with ASU than I expected. One of the keys has been the assistant coaches he brought in. That has helped speed the growth under Edwards and the Sun Devils are undervalued in this spot. The Buffaloes are over-rated because of their flashy record which certainly has been helped by playing a weak schedule. Look for the hungry road dog to get the job done here and get their first win away from home under Edwards. Remember they did beat a quality Michigan State team earlier this season. Upset alert here. 8* ARIZONA STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #336 Saturday 8* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ Noon ET - The Gamecocks QB situation is actually adding to the value here. Jake Bentley is listed as doubtful for this game but many believe he needed to benched anyway. The Gamecocks last last week's game versus Kentucky largely due to 4 turnovers and it has not been a good start to the season for Bentley. Looking at South Carolina's stats they would certainly be in much better shape if not for the sub-par play of Bentley. That has led to value in this spot. The Gamecocks are at home and hungry for a win and yet are now a home dog in this spot. Will be a huge effort from the Gamecocks against an over-rated Missouri Tigers team in this one. 8* SOUTH CAROLINA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-) @ Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The big key here is the triple option attack of Georgia Tech. This is something Louisville is not familiar with and it is going to give this defense all sorts of trouble in this one. The strength of this factor is compounded by the fact that the Cardinals have to face it on a short week too since this is a Friday game. Louisville did play well against Florida State last week but still came up just short on the scoreboard and that just adds to the frustration of this campaign for the Cardinals. Conversely, Georgia Tech comes into this game rolling with confidence after their blowout win versus Bowling Green. The Yellow Jackets have already lost outright twice in this price range (laying about 4) on the road this season but that is the same line range they are in here. Of course the odds makers know what they're doing. In other words, look for the "third time is the charm" to hold true in this case as Georgia Tech goes out and proves why they are a road favorite here. The Yellow Jackets have turned the ball over a total of just 3 times in their last 3 games. Conversely, the mistake-prone Cardinals have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their past 2 games! The Cards are on a 2-4 ATS run as an underdog and Louisville is also on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. In weeks 5 through 9 of a season, the Yellow Jackets are on a 6-2 ATS run and last week's big win is a sign that, once again, as per usual they are hitting their mid-season stride again. The option shreds the Cards defense. 8* GEORGIA TECH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - First off let me state that I am well aware that there are some injury concerns relating to the Colts TY Hilton and the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. However, did you see the yardage totals and pass catch totals that the Colts put up against the Texans last week that were unrelated to Hilton? The fact is that this Indianapolis team still have plenty of weapons even if Hilton doesn't play and I love the situation here. The Patriots needed a win badly last week and they got it as they dominated the over-rated Dolphins on both sides of the ball. However, now there will be the proverbial "let up" in defensive intensity after the Pats D "saved face" last week. The fact is that New England had allowed an average of 447.5 yards per game in their two prior games and the Patriots had allowed an average of 25.7 points per game in their first three games this season. The Colts threw for over 400 yards in last week's loss versus the Texans and though there may be some scattered showers in Foxboro Thursday evening, the winds are expected to be light with mild temperatures. In other words, both offenses will be fully functional. The Patriots are a long-term 28-15 to the over in games versus AFC South opponents. Also, in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, the Pats are on an 18-9 run to the over. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Colts are on a 19-7 run to the over. In October games, Indianapolis is on an 8-2 run to the over the past two seasons. Take advantage of the drop on this total (has fallen from its opener). 10* OVER the total in New England

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Thursday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game for Houston and Tulsa certainly hasn't looked good so far this season so that explains the huge number posted on the Cougars as the favorite in this one over the Golden Hurricane. The reason I am going the other direction and going with Tulsa here is because they truly needed that bye week last week and I expect them to come out and play much "cleaner" football this week as they've been done in by turnovers this season. As for the Cougars, they've been killing their own defense because of their fast-paced offense. It seems to be wearing down the Houston defense and they've truly been fortunate this season as statistically they have not been as impressive as some of their final scores would indicate. The Cougars beat Rice by 18 but they allowed 439 yards in that game! They beat Arizona by 27 but only outgained the Wildcats by 20 yards! Houston also lost by 14 at Texas Tech and allowed over 700 yards in that game. The point being that, even though the Cougars are likely to put up big yards in this game, I don't expect Houston to be able to get enough stops to win this game by more than about 10 points. Tulsa will be fired up off of the bye as this a team that inexplicably went 2-10 last season and then has started slow this season. Keep in mind the Golden Hurricane outgained the Owls by over 100 yards at Temple two weeks ago and yet lost the game by 14 points. Don't be surprised if this game is much closer than many are anticipating. Tulsa is 5-0 ATS when playing the 2nd of back to back road games. The Golden Hurricane are on a 7-2 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Houston is 0-4 ATS when off of a bye week and the Cougars are 0-3 ATS as a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* TULSA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Broncos. Adding even more value to this spot though is that Denver has gone from Super Bowl champs to 9 wins to 5 wins the last 3 seasons! While the Broncos are clearly on the way down, the Chiefs have been on an upward trajectory with double digit wins totals in each of the last 3 seasons! Kansas City could be ascending even higher this season thanks to the play of Patrick Mahomes. He currently ranks as the #1 QB in the NFL based on passer rating and Mahomes has thrown for 13 TDs without a pick on the season. As for the Broncos Case Keenum, he ranks among the league worst in QB's so far this season and he has thrown for just 3 TDs while also throwing 5 INTs. Though the Chiefs defense has struggled this season their offense has absolutely been a machine moving up and down the field. Also, Kansas City's biggest weakness (defense) is unlikely to be exposed by a Broncos offense that has had issues with drives stalling out due to turnovers and simply being inept at crucial times. That is why Denver's yardage stats look quite good on offense but they are averaging only 20 points per game. The Chiefs are nearly double that as they are averaging 39 points per game. Simply put, the Broncos just won't be able to keep up here. KC is 12-6 SU and ATS in road games and, in addition to covering 5 in a row against Denver, the Chiefs are on an overall 7-0 ATS run in regular season games. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been an underdog of at least 3 points. That means this is a triple perfect play with angles combining for 18-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS. Monday 8* KANSAS CITY

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers have defeated the Ravens three straight times. Pittsburgh lost their only home game this season so you know they're going to be ready to go here and make up for the defeat versus Kansas City two weeks ago. As for their other two games, the Steelers did have to settle for a tie versus Cleveland but that was truly a crazy finish after Pittsburgh did lead 21-7 in the 4th quarter. As for their other game (a win last week versus the Bucs), the final score was tight but the Steelers were up huge in that game. You can bet that after these disappointing finishes (blown big leads) and having lost their only game at Heinz Field so far this season, Pittsburgh is going to go a full 60 versus their hated rival, the Ravens, in this one. Of course the betting markets focus on Baltimore's big win last week and the fact that the Steelers let some leads slip away and so now the market has made the move toward Baltimore here. More often than not I like to fade the popular choice and the Ravens are attracting the money in this one. Again, Steelers will not let up against Baltimore like they did against the Browns and Lions. Also, I prefer having Ben Roethlisberger as my QB here rather than Joe Flacco as the latter tends to be turnover prone in the biggest of situations. Note also that, per the injury reports, the Ravens are the more banged up team. Baltimore is only 3-10 SU and 5-7-1 ATS the last 13 times they've been an underdog. The Steelers are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS) the last 13 times in games their line ranges from +3 to -3. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional games and facing a divisional foe that has double revenge against them. Steelers haven't lost B2B home games since early in the 2016 season and I don't expect them to drop to 0-2 at home on the season. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - Giants gave up 368 yards through the air last week. Of course the New York offense is not considered their strength but they have been consistent through the air and have thrown for at least 210 yards every week. The Giants aerial attack should have no problem with the Saints defense this week. New Orleans is allowing an average of 337 passing yards per game. On the flip side, it is unlikely the Giants are going to be able to slow down the Saints offense. They are averaging 345 passing yards per game and 35 points per game. The over went 8-3 the past two seasons when New Orleans faced teams with a losing record and I look for them to take advantage of a Giants defense that is not as strong as it has been in the past. Dating back to the regular season and including their post-season games, the Saints are now on a 5-1 run to the over after last week's high-scoring OT win at Atlanta. 62% of the Giants plays this season have been passing plays. 67% of the Saints plays this season have been passing plays. With both teams defenses susceptible to the pass that will be the emphasis of each offense here and, of course, an emphasis on the pass means even more plays and less running clock. Don't let the big number fool you here. With the weather also expected to be ideal for this game, there will be no limitations on either offense here. 10* OVER the total in the New York Giants game

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Texans are still searching for that elusive first win so definitely extra hunger here for the road team. Though Houston suffered a home loss last week versus the Giants they did outgain New York and that was also the case in the Texans prior game. Houston outgained Tennessee the prior week by over 150 yards but lost. The Texans season opening loss was at New England. The point is that based on schedule (trip to Foxboro) and a few bad bounces (past two weeks) Houston is 0-3 despite playing better than their record shows. As a result, we have great value here in going against a Colts team that was very fortunate to get a cover last week at Philadelphia. The Eagles actually outgained Indianapolis 170 yards but you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score. Again, this is leading to more value here in terms of going against the Colts with the hungry Texans. In terms of technical value, the Colts are just 1-5 SU and ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Texans are 11-2 ATS in divisional action when they enter a game with a losing record, off of a loss, and they're facing a team with a losing record. Indianapolis is 1-10 ATS when they are facing a team with a sub-.400 record that is also off of a SU and ATS loss in their prior game. Combined edges here of 26-4 (87%) ATS in favor of the small road dog. 8* HOUSTON

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Eagles got the SU win versus the Colts last week but certainly should have had the ATS win as well. Philadelphia outgained Indianapolis by 170 yards but QB Carson Wentz was a little rusty and the Eagles won the game by only 4 despite the yardage domination. This week look for Wentz to be much more sharp and the set-up is perfect here for Philly as they catch Tennessee off of a big upset win at Jacksonville. The Titans are just 1-7 ATS when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Eagles are on a 21-9 ATS run in games played on grass. Off back to back divisional wins, Tennessee certainly could be "out of gas" for this one especially after the big upset win as a double digit dog at Jacksonville. The Titans offense struggles with the pass and relies on the run and that plays right into the hands of the Eagles who currently rank #1 in the league against the run. The Philly defense also is ready to make up for the poor effort they gave in their first road game at Tampa Bay. That loss and poor effort on the defensive end in that game plus with Wentz now back for this road game and having a game under his belt, this is the ideal spot for a huge effort from the Eagles. Considering those factors as well as the small line, look for a road rout in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #195 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LSU Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 9 ET - The Rebels are known for their offense but also have no defense. This has certainly been the case early this season. Ole Miss is averaging over 500 yards of offense per week but is also giving up over 500 yards. The Rebels have averaged 42 points per game so far this season. However, they've allowed an average of 40 points per game the past 3 games. Against LSU, Ole Miss has allowed an average of 39 points per game. The Tigers are allowing 244 passing yards per game and the Rebels strength on offense is their aerial attack as they are averaging 347.5 passing yards per game! Ole Miss also has enough of a running attack to keep the LSU defense "honest" (they have to respect the run) so the balanced attack should lead to plenty of plays downfield. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, Ole Miss is 4-2 to the over. Also, the Rebels are 7-2 to the over in games played in weeks 5 through 9. The Tigers normally do tend to trend under but they certainly have not given up the points that one would have expected based on the yardage allowed in their games this season. Louisiana Tech threw for over 300 yards on the Tigers defense last week and the Rebels are even more dangerous in that regard. That said we have great line value here because Ole Miss won't be able to stop the LSU attack. The Tigers have been very balanced on offense this season and have even enjoyed success against tough defenses like Auburn and Miami - which are certainly much better than the Rebels defense. 10* OVER the total in LSU

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Though Ohio State has been getting the SU wins in recent meetings between these teams, Penn State has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these rivals. Also, neither one of these teams has faced a tough schedule so far this season. That said, while one could argue that the Nittany Lions are unproven so far, one should also consider that the Buckeyes have played an easy schedule thus far. That said, what sticks out in the minds of most in the betting markets is that Ohio State has dominated every single week while the Nittany Lions struggled to get past Appalachian State in week one. The key though is that PSU has responded since then with 3 straight blowout wins and they get this game at home plus they are an underdog of more than 3 points. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as a result. While it is true that Penn State has struggled at Ohio State for many years now, it is also true that they give the Buckeyes all they can handle when they meet at State College. The Nittany Lions have covered all but 4 of the last 12 meetings in Happy Valley and and they've won half of the dozen games straight-up. The public is enamored with Ohio State right now (as per usual) but they truly struggled to get past TCU and that is the same Horned Frogs team that just lost badly to Texas. The Frogs lost by 15 points and turned the ball over 4 times in that game. The point is that Ohio State may be just a little over-rated right now. The Nittany Lions are a superb 16-2 SU (and 17-1 ATS!) when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. In recent seasons Penn State is 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Also, long-term as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Nittany Lions are also 5-1 ATS! Ohio State is just 1-3 ATS their last 4 on grass. Also, the Buckeyes are 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The last two match-ups have been decided by a TOTAL of just 4 points! Grab the value with the home dog points in this one. 10* PENN STATE

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #182 Saturday 8* Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - Very tough spot for Texas and the perfect time to fade them as the betting markets generally have a tendency toward a short term memory. The Longhorns have been hot and are off of back to back wins over USC and TCU but keep in mind this is a bad spot for them. The Horns are off B2B big wins plus have their annual huge match-up with Oklahoma on deck. At the same time as Texas is over-hyped and in a bad scheduling spot, you have a Kansas State team coming in as a dangerous home underdog. Under head coach Bill Snyder, the Wildcats are known for performing well as an underdog but that hasn't been the case so far this season. That said, off of a bad loss at West Virginia where they were outgained by 146 yards but lost the game by 29 points, there is additional value with the Cats at home and hungry off of an embarrassing road loss. You can bet they'll be ready to go against Texas this week. The home team has won each of the last 6 meetings SU (and is 5-1 ATS) and Kansas State is also 5-0 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've faced the Longhorns in Manhattan. The Wildcats offense returned 8 starts on offense this season including all 5 on the offensive line and, after scoring just 6 points last week, this Kansas State team comes out with a fire lit under them this week. Look for the Wildcats to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been a home dog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* KANSAS STATE

Afternoon Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #139 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida has rolled so far this season but they have played a very weak schedule. Pittsburgh has played a Big Ten team and a pair of ACC teams the last 3 weeks. After falling just short at North Carolina last week, the highly motivated Panthers are likely to give the Golden Knights all they can handle here. UCF is a huge favorite but is only 2-4 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. A lot of points expected here and that means the back door cover option is also open here should we need it. Central Florida has been susceptible to the ground attack this season and gave up over 300 yards rushing to Florida Atlantic last week. The Panthers have run for over 225 yards in three of their four games this season. Pittsburgh is a solid 7-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Long-term the Panthers are 11-4 ATS when they are a road dog in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. Look for the big points to prove well worth having in this match-up as the Golden Knights finally are matched up with a tougher foe. 8* PITTSBURGH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #107 Friday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Buffaloes vs UCLA Bruins @ 9 ET - Both teams off of a bye week. Plenty of time to prepare and the Bruins needed time off after their 0-3 start to the season. Though their offense under new head coach Chip Kelly has sputtered early this season, they have certainly played a much tougher schedule than the Buffaloes have. Look for UCLA to bounce back big on offense here but I don't trust their defense to get enough stops here against the Buffs especially with this game being played in Colorado. That said, this looks like a back and forth high scoring shootout. The weather forecast looks great and both teams should be fully functional on offense as a result. No concerns with wind rain. I also like the line value here with the downward move on this total. The Buffaloes defense allowed over 500 yards at Nebraska earlier this season. Colorado has averaged 41 points per game this season on offense. The Bruins have not fared as well on offense of course but the 3 teams they've faced are currently a combined 10-1 on the season. I know the Buffs also have a great record on the season but this has been due to facing weaker teams. The point being that UCLA is going to get their points here but again the Bruins won't be able to stop a confident Colorado offense. Look for the over to improve to 16-9 in UCLA's last 25 road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. In a home game with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points, Colorado's O/U is 3-1. The Buffaloes, as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, are 4-2 to the over. Look for another one here. 8* OVER the total in Colorado

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The betting markets often operate on a short-term memory and, as a result, there can be excellent line value in situations like this. As of early game day morning, the line on this game has been driven up to as high as a 7.5 as many just can't stop thinking about that embarrassing home loss the Vikings just had against the Bills on Sunday. The keys to the value here are that, prior to that game, Minnesota had a tough early season schedule as the Niners (with Garappolo at QB) were certainly a formidable match-up and then the Vikings went to Lambeau Field. After having to settle for a tie at division rival Green Bay and then knowing that this big match-up with the Rams was on deck, it is not a huge surprise that he Vikes were flat against Buffalo. Of course an outright loss was not expected but some struggles were expected. The fact that Minnesota did lose outright (and bad) actually only strengthens the power of this situation here. The Vikings will be ready to go and they're taking on a Rams team that has beaten the Raiders, Cardinals, and Chargers. Those 3 teams have a combined record of 1-8 this season! I do respect the Rams but they are truly getting too much respect from the betting markets here and the fact that we can now get 7 plus the hook in this one has me raising it to a top play. In terms of long-term technical data, the Vikings are 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against the Rams and Los Angeles is on a 2-8 ATS run in Thursday games. The Vikes should improve to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games versus NFC West opponents. 10* MINNESOTA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #103 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 8 ET - There has been a downward move on this total early this week and I certainly understand that based on the Hurricanes impressive numbers on defense so far this season. However, Miami has played a light schedule (other than LSU) and the Hurricanes did allow an average of 28.5 points per game in their two tougher match-ups (LSU and at Toledo). That said, the Tar Heels weakness is certainly on defense and I expect the Hurricanes to fully exploit this. However, don't be surprised if UNC also scores very well in this game. They do have a potent offense that has averaged 440.5 yards per game the past two weeks. Also, North Carolina is going to be unable to stop the Canes (Heels allowed 38 points per game past two games) so their best hope here is to be very aggressive on offense and looked to get into a shootout where a key turnover possibly also breaks their way and they have a shot at the upset. So the point is, UNC's game plan here will NOT be conservative but they simply can not stop the Hurricanes. Miami has averaged scoring 40 points per game the past two weeks and the "under trending" in this series is what is also helping to give us line value here. I'll take it! The over is 3-1 in Canes games this season. The over is 4-2 long-term when North Carolina is a road dog in a range of 17.5 to 21 points. Also, the over is 8-4 in Tar Heels September games. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Miami

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The winless Steelers are at the 2-0 Buccaneers and the earliers lines on this game had Pittsburgh as nearly a field goal favorite. Now the Steelers are the underdog in this match-up as of early Monday morning and I love the value we're getting here with the road team. While it is true that Tampa Bay is 2-0 this season, it is also true that the Bucs have allowed an average of 376.5 passing yards per game. That porous pass defense will be trying to stop Big Ben and Company and note that the Steelers passing attack is averaging 377.5 passing yards per game thus far. Look for that match-up to be the key to this game. Yes I know that the Pittsburgh run defense has not been good so far this season but they'll be fired up in the trenches and ready to go here as a winless team on the road under the Monday Night lights. Big opportunity for the Steelers here and note that Tampa Bay managed less than 2 yards per carry in their win last week. In games with a line between +3 and -3, the Steelers are on a 9-3 SU run. Pittsburgh also is a long-term 31-10 SU in Monday night games! In games with a total of 49.5 points or more, Tampa Bay is a long-term 4-12 SU! You can see that a lot of points are expected here and I don't expect the Buccaneers to be able to keep up. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS when they are a road dog and facing an opponent that is off of back to back straight up wins. Of course that system is in effect here and I am grabbing the very hungry road dog in this one. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #488 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - This total opened up in the mid-40s (very early line but this still tells you something) and got steamed up all the way up into the mid-50s. I feel we are getting excellent line value here because this game is going to be much of a chess match than many people realize. Now I know when you look at the Lions and all the points that have been scored against them you would find this hard to believe. However, the fact is that Detroit has allowed an average of only 347.5 yards per game so far this season. Their head coach, Matt Patricia, was the defensive coordinator at New England from 2012 to 2017. You know that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is going to want to prove here whom really is the mastermind behind making proper defensive adjustments. This is why I mentioned "chess match" previously because I really believe we are going to see this game be much more about defense than many are expecting. With the Pats off of a bad game defensively against a highly motivated Jaguars team, I expect Belichick's group to be ready to return to the form that led to just 325 yards being allowed versus the Texans in Week 1. New England, prior to last week's dismal effort, had allowed 20 points or less in 13 of their last 16 games (regular season and playoffs included). In true road games (not including neutral site games), the Patriots offense has been held to 27 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. Now you see why the odds makers had this total in the mid-40s to start with! Indeed, look for it to finish in the 40s as both coaches look to one up the other with quite the effort in terms of play-calling on the defensive side of the ball in this one. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, New England has stayed under in 5 of 6 (83%). In home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, the Lions have stayed under in 11 of 17 (65%). Look for another one here. 10* UNDER the total in Detroit

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #486 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks Money Line (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - This line has dropped so low on the home favorite Seattle that the Seahawks money line (as of Saturday evening) is now available for as low as a -120 price. I'll take it! While Dallas is off of their first home game of the season (and a win), it is Seattle that is now playing their home opener and that is still seeking their first win of the season. Yes the Cowboys have revenge from the home loss to the Seahawks late last season that basically ruined Christmas for Dallas but the fact is that the value is with Seattle in this match-up. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that this Seahawks team is not the same team it has been in recent seasons but that is also why we're getting phenomenal line value here. That is factored into this line and Seattle is a different "animal" when they play at home too! In a home game with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points the Seahawks are 4-0 SU their last 4. Seattle is also 4-1 (SU and ATS) their last 5 vs NFC East opponents. When installed as a home favorite of 3 points or less, the Seahawks are a long-term 26-10 ATS. Note also that Seattle is on an 8-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS run when they are a home favorite and they are entering the game off of back to back SU losses. That system fits here and the Cowboys offensive line is a shell of its former self and I expect the Seahawks defense to take advantage! 10* SEATTLE

PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Eagles should dominate this game. Yes they have some injury issues at running back but they're getting some healthy bodies back at WR and, most importantly in terms of injuries, QB Carson Wentz is back this week. However, he is actually not even the biggest key to this play. The most significant edge the Eagles have is in the trenches because they are so strong on both the offensive line and defensive line. With the Colts having a glaring weakness in terms of their offensive line, the Eagles D can exploit this and I expect this to be a huge mismatch all game long. In truth it won't even be fair to compare Indy QB Andrew Luck to Wentz in this game because I expect the latter to have a huge edge in terms of time in the pocket and the ability to make throws after plays develop. As for Luck, he is going to need some "luck" just to evade the Eagles aggressive pass rush. Philly is at home and off of a loss and they are fired up. The fact this line is currently available at 6.5 (in a number of shops) as of Saturday afternoon is an added edge. Lay the points with the Eagles and look for a blowout as the set-up is perfect with Indianapolis off of a big road win where they are actually outgained and the Eagles off of a road loss and returning home where they have been so tough under coach Doug Pederson. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This is the ultimate in "line metrics" that fools the betting markets but that should take care of us very nicely. The fact is that many are looking at this match-up wondering how the 2-0 Dolphins at home are laying only 3 (or 3.5 in some spots) against an 0-2 Raiders team. Of course the reason is because the odds makers know exactly what they're doing here and I firmly believe that this will be Oakland's first SU win this season but certainly am glad to grab the extra value of at least a field goal in this match-up. The Dolphins beat the Jets at New York last week but they were outgained significantly in that contest. Keep in mind that Miami's season-opening win came at home against Tennessee and the Titans yardage was roughly equal with the Dolphins in that game and plus the Titans are certainly no powerhouse. I like the fact that the Raiders have had to play the Rams and also visit Denver to open the season (and covered and should have won outright over the Broncos) while the Dolphins have played two teams that many consider to be two of the weaker teams in the NFL. We're getting a lot of line value here as a result and Oakland, statistically has been stronger than Miami so far this season but that just hasn't translated to SU wins and losses yet. Look for that to change this week! The last 18 times that the Raiders have had a line between +3 and -3, they've only failed to cover 5 times! The Dolphins have covered just 3 times in their last 11 games when off of a divisional game. Not only are they off of one, Miami has one on deck too - at New England! Perfect set up here for the road dog. 8* OAKLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #392 Saturday 8* Utah State Aggies (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 10:15 ET - Utah State blew a double digit lead against the Falcons last season but that game was at Air Force. That was the 3rd straight loss for the Aggies in this series and they're certainly ready for payback. Utah State is on a 7-2 ATS run as a home favorite and they are the much stronger team in comparison with Air Force this season. The Falcons have lost many key players to graduation the last two seasons while the Aggies have have one of the most veteran groups of players they've ever had. The past two seasons Air Force is 2-0 against Utah State. However, against the rest of the Mountain West, the Falcons are 2-12 ATS! You see my point? The Falcons struggle to compete against conference competition at the betting window and, in a season that is likely to be another down year for them, I feel there is great value here in going against them in this triple revenge spot! Utah State is 8-1 SU the last 9 times they've been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The reason that holds significance here is because the Falcons entered this season on a 7-13 ATS run and their only "big board" game so far this season was two weeks ago against Florida Atlantic. They were fortunate to get the cover as their defense was a disaster and I expect the Aggies to fully exploit that weak pass defense here. 8* UTAH STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #397 Saturday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ UL-Monroe Warhawks @ 7 ET - I am well aware that there are some weather concerns in the Monroe area for Saturday. However, this side play is such a fantastic situation that I am not going to shy away from it. The hope is that any weather in the area happens earlier in the day and does not interrupt this game. UL Monroe's home stadium is FieldTurf which helps in term of drainage and avoiding a super muddy field as can be the problem on natural surfaces should there be rain in Monroe on Saturday. In my opinion Troy is still the class of the SunBelt Conference and to get them at this low of a number against a Warhawks team that has not won more than 4 games in a year since the 2013 seasons, is a great bargain! Some may be concerned about the Trojans being off the big upset win at Nebraska last week but, keep in mind, two years ago, Troy was nearly a double digit dog at Southern Miss and got the upset win over the Golden Eagles and then turned around won their next game by a 46 point margin. The Trojans last year had the huge upset of LSU and then faltered the next week as they lost outright as a nearly 20 point favorite. Trust me, lesson learned and this Trojans team is fully focused on the task at hand this week. That "task" is that this is their conference opener and Troy will be ready to go here in a big way. Also note that UL-Monroe is actually 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they've faced a team that is off of an outright win as an underdog! Of course that system fits with the Trojans off the upset of the Corhuskers as a double digit dog last week. Also, the Warhawks lost big to Texas A & M last week and failed to cover. That is noteworthy here as UL-Monroe is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they were off of a SU loss that was also an ATS loss in non-conference action. This is the Warhawks SunBelt opener too and it is time to get serous in conference action. That favors the more talented and stronger Trojans and I am happy to lay the short number. We just need to keep the storms away from the Monroe area as much as possible. They are expected to move away during the evening hours. 10* TROY

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #385 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - I am well aware that there are some weather concerns in the Waco area for Saturday. However, having previously lived in Texas before moving out to Las Vegas, I can tell you from experience that the typical pattern is storms move quickly in and out rather than becoming entrenched for a long period of time in one area. Again, this is the case more often than not and I expect them to get this game in even if there would happen to be a weather delay which, of course, would be unfortunate but we can not control that. What I do know is that it the turf at Baylor's home stadium is a type of artificial turf and, as a result, we don't have to worry about the field getting sloppy if there is rain at some point during the day Saturday. The key to the value here is the Bears offense is certainly still a potent one but their defense continues to be a major weakness. Of course Kansas is known for having a bad defense as that has been the case for many years now. What I like about the Jayhawks here is they have averaged over 300 rushing yards their past two games and Baylor has allowed at least 220 rushing yards in 2 of their 3 games this season. As for the Bears offense, they've averaged 500 yards per game so far this season. Keep in mind the Jayhawks defense has some good numbers so far this season only because they've been fortunate in terms of turnovers and because they've faced some very weak offenses. That changes in a big way this week and note that the over is 2-0 in Baylor's games this season and the Bears are 7-3 to the over the last 10 times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Jayhawks are 19-11 to the over when they enter a game off of back to back SU wins. Also, Kansas is 3-0 to the over in their last 3 road games with a posted total in a range of 49.5 to 56 points. 10* OVER the total in Baylor

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #340 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ Noon ET - The Bearcats are 3-0 SU and ATS on the season and have played well on both sides of the ball. The Bobcats are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS and have played an even weaker schedule than Cincinnati has. Ohio U had their season opener versus Howard and they were favored by 30 but only won by 6. The Bobcats have underachieved thus far and are allowing nearly 600 yards per game! The Bearcats are off of a confidence building blowout win over Alabama A & M last week. While that skewed their offensive stats in a positive fashion, there is no doubt the Cincy defense has played well all season as they are allowing an average of just 8 points per game and they've held the opposition under an average of 230 yards per game. Ohio U is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The Bobcats are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against AAC teams. Keep in mind this game is more important than a "typical" non-conference match-up. That's because these teams are located only about 150 miles apart but haven't met in over 35 years. That said, there is recruiting "turf" at stake here and Cincinnati is out to encourage future signees in the region to be a Bearcat and not a Bobcat. Take the rolling home team as the Ohio U defense continues to struggle. 8* CINCINNATI

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on the Trojans here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the value on the other side. The fact is that USC is, of course, seeking revenge here. However, that doesn't make this game any less important to Washington State. For the Cougars, this is their Pac-12 opener this season. Now, I am well aware of the fact that Washington State has played a much weaker schedule than USC has so far this season. However, the Cougars certainly were impressive in their lone "challenging" game thus far as they won by 22 as a 3-point favorite at Wyoming in Week 1. The fact is that Washington State's 3 straight blowout wins (the other two against weak opponents) has served well as a confidence builder for this team. As for the Trojans, they just can't stop the bleeding. That game at Texas should have been "the game" for them as they needed a bounce back effort after Stanford and yet they got pushed around by a Longhorns team that lost at Maryland to open up this season. The point is that there are some internal issues right now with this Trojans team and I am going to challenge them to snap out of it here because I feel they won't. USC continues to have issues on both sides of the ball and, keep in mind, the Cougars win over the Trojans last season was no fluke. Washington State outgained Southern Cal by 135 yards. USC is 0-3 ATS this season while the Cougars are 3-0 ATS. Washington State is on a 5-0 ATS run when they have Utah on deck and that is the case here. USC is on a 3-12 ATS dating back to early last season. Maybe they snap the skid and get a win here but if they do I expect it to be by a field goal or less and I like my chances with the Cougars rolling with confidence right now while USC filling up with self-doubt. The Cougars are a long-term 17-9 ATS as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* WASHINGTON STATE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+)  Cleveland Browns @ 8:20 ET - I understand the line completely as many experts feel the Jets and Browns are equal teams and therefore Cleveland is merely favored for home field edge here. However, the fact that we can get +3 or even +3.5 with New York in some shops as of Tuesday night is a big value in this one when you consider that Browns have not won a single game since Week 16 of the 2016 season! I really like the fact that the Jets outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards last week but yet came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. This also helped add line value this week because, keep in mind, the Jets blasted the Lions in Week 1. As for Cleveland in Week 1, yes they did tie Pittsburgh but the Steelers gave that game away late as they blew a 21-7 lead. Pittsburgh actually outgained the Browns by 145 yards in Week 1. The Browns tie with the Steelers and their close battle with the Saints last week become less impressive when you consider both of those teams have plenty of issues as they each are still seeking their first win of the season. That said, I am certainly not saying that the Jets are not without some issues too but you can absolutely see why, per all of the above as well as New York's stat edges early this season, I am happy to back the road dog here and fade a team that hasn't even won a game since 2016. The Jets have failed to cover just once in their last five versus AFC North opponents. Cleveland was 7-4 SU through game 11 in the 2014 season. Since then the Browns are 4-49 SU! Will I fade a team that is laying 3 plus the hook in some spots and has won just 4 of its last 53 games? Yes indeed and I will elevate this to a Top Play too. 10* NEW YORK JETS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7:30 ET - This total was as high as a 59 but it has now dropped down to as low as a 55 as of Tuesday night. I like the added value here as I am expecting quite the shootout. The Temple defense may not have a lot left in the tank after the Owls went on the road and upsetting Maryland last week thanks in part to a huge effort from the D. As for the offense of the Owls, they are expected to get a boost with the return of QB Frank Nutile this week. Temple's O will take advantage of facing a Tulsa defense that has been one of the worst in the nation in recent years. The Golden Hurricane have allowed 441.5 yards per game the past two weeks. The point totals allowed could have easily been higher. As for the offensive production of Tulsa they've waited to get going until too late in their game each of the past two weeks (at Texas and versus Arkansas State). Certainly they've learned their lesson and will be flying around from the opening whistle in this one and taking advantage of a Temple D still basking in their huge effort from last week. That said, you can see why I am expecting the Golden Hurricane to score plenty put with their sub-par defense, they won't stop the Owls either! Temple has averaged 32 points per game their past two games and they'll get at least that here as Nutile will be unleashed. The Owls had a lot of success on D last week because they were able to take the ground game of the Terrapins away but they won't be able to do that against the powerful ground game of the Golden Hurricane. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times that Tulsa has been an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Each of the last two meetings between these teams went over the total and that included last year's game which totaled 65 points. More of the same here. By the way, weather in Philly for Thursday evening looks good! 10* OVER the total in Temple

MNF Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 Monday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Yes the Seahawks have a few injuries but that is factored into this line. We're getting great value with road dog Seattle as we go against a Chicago team that is just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite. Also, the Bears QB is Mitch Trubisky while the Seahawks QB is Russell Wilson. You can't base a play on one position but, one thing is for certain, the QB position is an extremely critical one and Seattle has a huge edge there in this match-up. Also, while Seattle's D did struggle at Denver last week they did garner 3 interceptions in that game and hung tough in a 3-point loss. As for the Bears, it is tough to come back after an extremely deflating defeat to the division rival Packers. Chicago blew a huge lead at Lambeau Field last Sunday night and now feels the pressure of another primetime game on Monday night. While Bears head coach Matt Nagy is in his first year with Chicago, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is a long-time veteran. When Seattle is on the road against an NFC foe following a game against an AFC foe in the prior week, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. I also like backing the Seahawks off of a loss. Seattle is 11-2 ATS when they are off of a SU loss outside of their division and are facing a team that has a losing record. The Bears are 0-16 ATS when they are a home favorite against an NFC foe that is off of a SU loss. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 5 road games (one push) against NFC opponents. That means this play is supported, in addition to a number of solid angles, by a pair of angles that are a combined 20-0 / 100% perfect. 8* SEATTLE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #287 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The total has trended under in recent meetings between these teams. Also, each of their games in Week 1 of this season went under the total. You know what that means for me on Sunday night don't you? OVER! The fact is that the Dallas offense is going to come out like they have a fire lit under them after that dismal effort at Carolina in Week 1. Of course the Giants are going to blitz and try to pressure Prescott but the Cowboys will be ready and the running of Elliott as well as Prescott having some quick throws to beat the blitz is likely to lead to some big plays for this Dallas offense. Keep in mind the Cowboys put up an average of 423 yards per game on the Giants in last year's meetings. New York's offense struggled against Dallas last season but with Beckham back at wide receiver and the explosive Barkley (out of Penn State) in the backfield, the Giants offense is going to really pressure the 'Boys defense in this one! The last 4 times that Dallas has been held to 8 points or less in a game their next game has averaged a total of 50 points and all 4 games totaled at least 46 points! Look for the Cowboys offense to bounce back here but they're going to struggle to stop the Giants here (hungry after scoring just 15 points last week) and that helps to send this one flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #285 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos hung on to beat the Seahawks by 3 points last week despite 3 interceptions thrown by Case Keenum. This created a perfect set up this week because there is a false confidence in the Broncos because of the win and some impressive yardage totals for Denver last week. So most of the marketplace is pro-Denver right now and anti-Oakland because, of course, everyone saw the Raiders collapse against the Rams in the 2nd half of that game. However, note that the yardage in that game was roughly equal and note that Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions. However, I still would pick Carr over Keenum to quarterback my team any day of the week. I also prefer a veteran coach like the Raiders Jon Gruden over the Broncos Vance Joseph. So, in this match-up, I have the better QB and the more experienced coach and I am getting nearly a full touchdown even though my team is undoubtedly the hungrier team. I'll take it! The Raiders are ticked off after what happened on Monday night while Denver is feeling a little too good about themselves after beating Seattle in week one. The Broncos are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 divisional games. Also, Denver is a long-term 2-10 ATS when they are at home in a divisional game and favored by less than 17 points and their opponent is off a SU loss. Again, hunger and motivation so important and I expect a lot of fight from the Raiders after what happened Monday and they should be in this one all the way and have a great shot at the upset. 8* OAKLAND

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #283 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Don't underestimate that Jags win over the Giants last week in New York. The Giants have some solid talent at the skill positions with Odell Beckham, Jr back in the mix and now Saquan Barkley running very well already in his rookie campaign for New York. That said, the Patriots were somewhat fortunate to sneak past the Texans last week and that was at home. Now they play in very high heat and high humidity in Jacksonville Sunday and they face a team that should have beat them in the AFC Conference Championship Game last year and that one was in Foxboro! In other words, I like my chances with the Jaguars as they won't blow a big lead against the Pats in Jacksonville in September like they did in New England in January. The Jags outgained the Patriots in that big playoff game and also dominated time of possession but they were done in by penalties. They are going to make the most of this opportunity for revenge. Of course the Patriots have been a covering machine in recent years and that is priced into this line. In other words, the wrong team is favored here but that is to satisfy the masses and, as long-time followers of my program know, I like to fade the masses. Keep in mind, since this line has Jax as a dog we can talk about their SU streaks as they do apply here and Jacksonville has won 6 in a row SU at home. As strong as the Pats have been overall ATS they have covered just 2 of their last 5 away from home and I like the Jags in the stifling oppressive heat of Florida in this one. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #263 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - First off let me start by saying that I am well aware that Carolina has some injury issues head into this game. However, the key factor is the Panthers have some solid depth at those positions (in particular, the offensive line) and I really like the big dog value being offered here. That was not a bad Cowboys that the Panthers thoroughly dominated in Week 1. At the same time the Falcons faced an Eagles team whose offense was totally out of rhythm and had questionable play-calling and never really could get in sync and yet Atlanta still lost. This is why I am going contrarian this week because most are expecting the Panthers to fall short after a big win over Dallas while the Falcons bounce back after a tough loss to the Eagles. It is the old "zig zag" theory. This is helping to give us a lot of line value here because Carolina's defense looked great last week while the Falcons traditional red zone struggles on offense continued. As a result, getting close to a TD here is a big value because there is no way the Panthers will be flat here. They are up for this game as they've had a history of struggles against Atlanta in recent meetings and it is payback time. The Panthers are a very cohesive group right now where everybody is pulling even closer together because of some of the injuries they've had. I really like what I am reading out of Carolina and, in terms of technical edges, the Panthers are a long-term 24-12 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points while also having gone 9-4 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons combined. 8* CAROLINA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #210 Saturday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:30 ET - The Sun Devils rallied for a home win against Michigan State last week. As a result, Arizona State was able to sneak by a ranked Spartans team even thought they allowed nearly 400 yards in that game. Now the Sun Devils are on the road for the first time this season and facing arguably their toughest challenge yet (first away game and hosted weak UTSA team in Week 1) and yet ASU is favored by nearly a full TD here. The markets are not grading this team properly. Head coach Herm Edwards was considered by many to be the most questionable (and possibly worst) off-season hire and now after just two games they're laying nearly a full TD on the road. I just don't see it and yes I am aware of the Aztecs QB being out for this game. Keep in mind San Diego State is a run dominated team. Also, a big key to this play is that Edwards plucked away their defensive coordinator from the Aztecs. Do you think long-time veteran head coach Rocky Long wants this game? This match-up certainly has special importance to him. He has been coaching in some capacity ever since his playing career ended in the mid-70s and he is known as a defensive specialist. He does not want to get out-witted by his pupil (the ASU DC) on the opposite sidelines. This will be Long's 230th games as an NCAA head coach while Aztecs coach Edwards does have NFL coaching experience but will be coaching his first ever road game in college action. I love the home dog here as the running game of the Aztecs and a huge edge with coach Long on our side of this play proving to be keys to victory. It also certainly is important to mention the scheduling situation here heavily favors San Diego State. While the Aztecs are at home and off of an easy win over an FCS team and with a MAC team on deck, the Sun Devils are off of a grueling upset win over a ranked Big Ten team plus they have their PAC-12 opener on deck. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get here. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #201 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs USC Trojans @ 8 ET - The Horns allowed 21 points to Tulsa in the second half of last week's game and were somewhat fortunate that the Golden Hurricanes didn't score in the first half. Long story there but I won't digress. Instead, the point is that I feel there will be some carryover from the late softening of the Longhorns defense last week and USC will be able to score on Texas early and often in this one. Keep in mind UT allowed 34 points and over 400 yards at Maryland in their season opener. The issue for the Trojans in this match-up will also be their defense. They allowed over 300 rushing yards (and 7 yards per carry) in their season opener versus UNLV and then last week gave up 5.5 yards per carry as Stanford ran very well against them. USC will struggle with a balanced Longhorns attack on offense that is averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game and is averaging 250 passing yards per game. Last year the posted total on this match-up was 20 points higher than the current posted total on this game as of early afternoon Friday. That said, I really like the value here with the over. The over is 6-3 in USC's last 9 non-conference games. The over is a long-term 15-9 in the Longhorns last 24 home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 49 points. This one is posted within that range and this one flies over as there are simply too many weapons on offense and too many question marks on defense for both of these teams to result in a total as low as what is posted on this game. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #146 Saturday 7* Oklahoma State Cowboys Money Line (-) vs Boise State Broncos @ 3:30 ET - This is definitely a contrarian play as everyone seems to be lining up on Boise State. In fact, this line has moved so much that Oklahoma State is now just a 2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday. We can take the value even a step further by grabbing the Cowboys on the money line as OSU is available in the -120 to -130 range as of about 1 PM ET on Friday. That is why the rating has been reduced to 7* here but we up our odds of a winner by grabbing the money line here with Oklahoma State. Neither team has really been tested this season and that is why I believe the markets are truly over-reacting to the Broncos positive stats so far this season. The Broncos did allow nearly 400 yards of offense at Troy State in their season opener but you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score. That said, I look for Boise State to have plenty of trouble stopping the Cowboys in Stillwater! Of course Oklahoma State is known year in and year out for their dynamic offense. However, the key here is that the OSU defense has gained confidence with two solid efforts to begin the season. They brought in their defensive coordinator from Duke and the Cowboys returned 7 starters from last season's D and that fit in well with Jim Knowles 4-2-5 scheme on defense. The Blue Devils had a very strong defense and now Knowles is calling the shots for the Cowboys defense. I really believe this is a "hidden edge" in this match-up and that we're getting tremendous line value. Boise State is 5-9 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back wins. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS (and 9-1 SU!) in its last 10 non-conference games. 7* Oklahoma State Money Line

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #125 Saturday 7* Florida State Seminoles Money Line (-) @ Syracuse Orange @ Noon ET - Florida State lost their first game of the season but it was because of turnovers against Virginia Tech. The Seminoles than looked lackluster on defense against Samford last week but did force 5 turnovers in an unimpressive victory over an FCS school. This has led to line value here on FSU this week. That's because Syracuse has looked great early this season but they've faced a bad MAC team (Western Michigan) and an FCS school (Wagner). The Orange finally get tested this week and their mobile all-everything QB will find it is much tougher when matched up with an ultra-athletic defense like the Seminoles have. The Noles are 23-9-1 SU (and 23-10 ATS) long-term when lines are in the +3 to -3 range. Within that there is a "tightener" too as they are 7-2 SU and ATS when they are a road favorite of 3 points or less. As of mid-day Friday the line is in the -2.5 range but the money line is in the -140 range and that is why I am reducing my rating to 7* here and suggesting that you take advantage of the low money line price being offered on this one. Look for the Orange to drop to 5-9 ATS in their last 14 home games. 7* Florida State Money Line

ESPN Smash Pass #1 O/U - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Friday 8* OVER the total in Memphis Tigers vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7 ET - The Tigers are in a foul mood after losing at Navy last week. QB Brady White has impressed for Memphis and he can pick apart a weak and inexperienced Panthers defense that has definite weakness in the secondary. Additionally, the Tigers running game has been very strong and this will set up the Georgia State defense to be beaten through the air because they certainly have to respect the run. Of course, as you can tell by the line, Memphis is expected to win this game in blowout fashion. What I like about the over here is that the Tigers are angry after the loss to the Midshipmen so their offense won't take the foot off of the gas. However, in blowouts there are also opportunities for the opponent to score extra points in garbage time and Georgia State did return 7 starters on offense from a unit that averaged scoring 30.5 points per game in their final 6 games away from home last season (including their bowl game). The fact is that the Panthers were much better away from home last season in terms of production on offense and I expect them to bounce back this week after scoring only 7 points last week on 349 yards of offense! As a road dog of 4 or more points, Georgia State went 2-0 to the over last season. As a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points, the Tigers are a long-term 7-2 to the over. 8* OVER the total in Memphis

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The very first number that popped on this one was the Ravens -3 and now Baltimore is in a pick'em range and even a small dog in some books as of Wednesday evening. This is offering great line value to the revenge-minded Ravens. Baltimore, as many may recall, missed out on the post-season last year because of an unbelievable late-game loss to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season last year. Of course revenge tends to be over-played so I am always careful when getting involved in situations with avenging teams. In this case it absolutely looks like the right play. The Ravens have seemed like a team on a mission ever since pre-season kicked off. They went 5-0 in the preseason and then began the regular season with a thumping of Buffalo. Certainly the Bills are expected to be a bad team this season but that games wasn't even close and Baltimore was dominant on both sides of the ball. On the other side of the equation, the Bengals faced a Colts team with a suspect offensive line and a rusty Andrew Luck under center and yet still needed a late rally for the win. Don't be impressed by the final score as Cincinnati scored the final 17 points and the fact is the yardage was roughly equal in that game. Look for the Ravens to improve on a 7-3 ATS run in road openers. The Bengals, in divisional games, are 0-7 ATS if they are facing an opponent whom is playing with revenge and whom scored more than 35 points in their prior game. This perfect system fits perfectly here and Baltimore is ready to roll! The road team was the SU and ATS winner in both match-ups last season and that trend continues here. 8* BALTIMORE

ESPN Smash Pass #1 Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Thursday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 5:30 ET - The road team has dominated this series of late with four straight wins. Also, Boston College is seeking revenge for last year's home loss where they got drilled 34-10 despite the yardage being roughly equal. The Eagles were done in by 4 turnovers in that game. The over-play of the revenge angle in sports is leading to nice value for us here in fading the betting markets. There has been a big push toward Boston College in this one as their line has risen higher early this week. I am happy to fade this because at least the Demon Deacons have faced one semi-tough test this season. Wake Forest was favored by a little shy of a TD in their win at Tulane in Week 1. As for the Eagles, both their games have been at home and they were huge favorites in both games because of the weak competition they faced. As a result, Wake Forest is the more battle tested team early this season as they had to battle hard for their win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. As for the Eagles, both their games were easy blowout wins. Keep in mind, when BC won at WF last season it was by just 3 points and in their previous visit two years prior it was by just 6 points. I expect Wake Forest to be in this game all the way and to have a great shot at the outright upset. The Demon Deacons are on an 11-2 ATS run as an underdog. Look for Boston College to drop to 7-13 ATS long-term as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Yes I am well aware that Wake Forest QB Kendall Hinton is still out for Wake Forest. However, Demon Deacons QB Sam Hartman has done a respectable job for them and now has two games under is belt as the replacement for the suspended Hinton. 8* Wake Forest

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #479 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Lions vs New York Jets @ 7:10 ET - The Lions averaged 25.6 points per game last season and will continue to be one of the better producing offenses in the league with Matt Stafford at the controls. Of course the big story in Detroit is new head coach Patricia. He was the defensive coordinator at New England of course but, as impressive as being with the Patriots sounds, the fact is the Pats defense ranked as one of the worst in the NFL last season in terms of yardage. They were a bit of a bend but don't break unit as they did better in terms of points allowed but, the point is, Patricia doesn't have the same group to work with in Detroit that he had in New England. The Lions were one of the worst units defensively in the league last year in terms of yardage allowed and weren't much better in terms of points per game. The point is I like the Lions offense to stay strong early this season but the defense will be going through a lot of adjusting early and the Jets, even with a rookie QB in Sam Darnold, have the firepower to take advantage. New York has a lot of talent at the skill positions and they will do some damage against a "questionable" Lions defense. However, it is the Jets defense that will also prove to be their downfall especially early this season. They struggled last season and this is one of the more inexperienced defenses in the league and a veteran QB like Stafford will take advantage. There is simply not a lot of veteran leadership on this Jets D. New York went over in 3 of 4 games against the NFC last season. The Lions are on a 7-2 run to the over in home games and I look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy while the Packers Mike McCarthy is in his 13th year with the Packers. Chicago is still resting their hopes on a QB by the name of Mitch Trubisky while Green Bay has a healthy Aaron Rodgers returning as the signal-caller for The Pack in this one. So far I have listed for you a coaching edge and a huge edge at arguably the most important position. Now add in the fact that the Packers have one of the biggest home field edges in the NFL and the fact that this line is down to a 7 and you can see why I am happy to back Green Bay in this one. Keep in mind Chicago has a combined record of 8-24 the past two seasons. In terms of ATS stats the Bears have gotten the cash just twice in their last nine games. Also, for those of you whom like technical trends: Chicago is 0-5 ATS when they have a Monday night game on deck. Last year the Packers season was impacted greatly by injury but do not forget that this team, including playoffs, averaged 12 wins per game the 3 prior seasons. Green Bay knows how to win and with Rodgers back under center this game is a complete mismatch and with the line at -7 it is "go time" for this one. The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears! As a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points, GB is on a 7-2 ATS run. The Bears are on a 4-12 ATS run in road games the past two seasons and I am happy to take advantage of the downward line move here. 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos, based on the markets, appear to be a popular choice this week. This is understandable from the anti-Seahawks sentiment as certainly Seattle has lost some key components from the team that took the field last season. However, I have to wonder if people heavily betting Denver stop and think about this interesting factoid: the Broncos win totals keep decreasing! They won 12 games 3 years ago, 9 games two years ago, and only were victories 5 times in 16 games last season! Is this a team you want to lay points with against a Seahawks team that still has plenty of professional pride and has been a top team for many years now. Also, do you want Case Keenum at QB or Russell Wilson? Of course most everyone would take the Hawks signal-caller give the choice! The point is just the simple fact that a little too much respect has gone the way of the Broncos in my strong opinion. We can now get a full field goal with the team, that in my opinion, is still the better team. Sure there is the important factor of home field but the Broncos have covered just once the last five times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. Overall, Denver's home field has been nothing special the last two seasons as they've barely played above .500 in the Mile High City. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU against AFC teams the past two seasons. The Broncos are on an overall 2-10 ATS run. You still have to score points to win games and so, while I respect the Denver defense, I think their offense is still going to have growing pains with Keenum at the helm. Seattle averaged scoring 5 points per game more than the Broncos last season plus the Seahawks D - even after personnel changes - is still a solid unit. The Hawks are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing the first of back to back road games. Also, head coach Pete Carroll is in his 9th year with the Seahawks while Vance Joseph is in his just his 2nd with the Broncos. That difference in experience is worth something too. 10* SEATTLE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #455 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The 49ers were a different team late last season with Garoppolo under center and I expect the San Francisco QB to stay hot early this season. Keep in mind, the Viking are going through a lot of transition on offense in terms of the QB position as well as their offensive cooridinator. That said, the upstart Niners could surprise the Vikes here. Sure, Minnesota has been excited too re-take the field after that embarrassing post-season loss to the Eagles. However, the 49ers have been just as eager to get back on the field after their strong start finish to last season. This San Francisco team is an up and coming unit with a great mixture of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. With this line climbing up to as high as a +7 as of Saturday evening it is go time with this dangerous underdog. Both these teams have been covering machines of late as the Niners covered 5 straight to end last season while the Vikings finished up the regular season covering 10 of their last 11. However, the key to the value here is the transition taking place with the Minny offense as well as the fact that they are the public team so that is why the money flow has gone their way and the line has moved accordingly. I am grabbing the value on the underdog side with this one and look for the 49ers to improve to 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road openers. 8* SAN FRANCISCO

Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #381 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 8 ET - Though there is a chance of storms in the Austin area Saturday this is normal at this time of year and they tend to be afternoon storms that fire up in daytime heating and then dissipate as the sun goes down. The point is that I don't expect rain to have an impact on this game and winds will be light and temperatures not as hot as they have been in Texas for many months now so the conditions are favorable for both offensive units to go "all out" here. The Longhorns are angry after their 34-29 loss at Maryland to open up the season with a loss to the Terrapins for the 2nd season in a row. Keep in mind, last year after this happened the Horns responded by scoring 56 points in their next game. Texas should have no trouble putting up big points on a Tulsa defense that is annually one of the worst in the nation. They've allowed an average of 37 points or more in 3 of the last 4 seasons! Last year was the 2nd time in 3 seasons under coach Phil Montgomery that the Golden Hurricane defense allowed an average of 529 yards or more per game. One thing Tulsa does have going for them however is they do score well. Keep in mind the Longhorns allowed over 400 yards to the Terrapins last week and this Golden Hurricane offense has averaged about 36 points per game in their 3 years under Montgomery. Tulsa was a little sloppy in their game against an easy opponent, Central Arkansas, as they were likely looking ahead already to this game, but they still put up nearly 500 yards of offense. Look for this one to turn into a shootout as the Horns need a huge effort at home but they will have trouble stopping this solid Tulsa offense. That turns this one into a back and forth "track meet" with both teams marching up and down the field. Look for the over to improve to 10-4 in Tulsa's last 14 games versus Big 12 opponents. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #367 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Missouri Tigers vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play because rain is expected Saturday in Columbia Missouri and also because Wyoming is certainly not known as a juggernaut on offense. The keys to the value include: 1) Drop from an O/U of 56 that was the opener; 2) The rain is expected to have moved out of the area by kick-off; 3) The surface at Missouri is FieldTurf not natural grass so the field should be fine; 4) Missouri likes to play fast and is known for running up the score on out-classed foes; 5) Wyoming did return 10 starters on offense from last time and certainly they are capable of points in late game garbage time too. A look inside the numbers shows you that Missouri averaged 37 points per game last season but also allowed 32 points per game. Wyoming has scored at least 28 points in 4 of their last 6 games played away from home. The Tigers returned nearly all of their starters on offense including the offensive line. However, they lost quite a bit on defense especially up front. The Cowboys defense will get pushed around here while on the flip-side, the Wyoming offense will enjoy some surprising success because the Tigers strength is certainly not their defense and that is especially up front. The Wyoming running game is going to find some holes and this will open things up for some shots through the air downfield as a results. The Tigers love to keep their foot on the gas so they'll roll up the points against at home this week and that helps send this one easily over the total. 8* OVER the total in Missouri