The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively.  The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard.  A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up. 

The Bengals are back to being a legitimate playoff contender, while the Ravens are likely to keep regressing due to a poor offense. Baltimore's defense isn't nearly the dominant force of years past. The Ravens don't have enough pieces to keep up with all of Cincinnati's skill position talent. A.J. Green always has been a Ravens-killer while being a consensus top-five wide receiver. Tight end Tyler Eifert is healthy, unlike last year. He's a premier tight end red zone threat. Added to this mix are good looking running back Joe Mixon and speedster rookie wide receiver John Ross.  The best case scenario for the Ravens would be if Joe Flacco started instead of Ryan Mallet, who is one of the worst backup QB's in the league. Flacco is expected to start, but he'll be extremely rusty having not played during preseason recovering from knee surgery and a bad back.  The Ravens' offensive line is in flux due to injuries and the unexpected retirement of center Urschel. Kenneth Dixon, probably the team's best runner, is out with injury as is tight end Dennis Pitta. There just isn't any way the Ravens can keep up with the Bengals' talent-laced skill position players.  Then there is the road factor. This is the first time Cincinnati is opening at home since 2009. The Bengals have dominated this series winning seven of the last 10, including going 5-0 at home. The Ravens have lost at Cincinnati by an average of 12 1/2-points the past two seasons - and the gap seems wider this year.  Baltimore is far less intimidating on the road. That's reflected in a 4-13 regular-season away mark. The Ravens have lost their past six road games. Their lone road victories last season occurred against the Browns and Jaguars. 

The Bears are going to struggle to move the ball with Mike Glennon under center and a very weak receiving group. Bears coach John Fox is conservative to begin with and he'll be more conservative here against an improved and aggressive Falcons defense. That means a lot of running with Jordan Howard, which keeps the clock moving and slows tempo.

It's easy to think shootout with these two teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. The oddsmaker certainly thinks so posting the highest Super Bowl total ever. Atlanta has a record-setting offense. Brady had another epic season. But a lot has to go right for a total to go above this number. These offenses are actually so precise that it's a factor for the under. Let me explain that. Neither team turns the ball over. They each had 11 giveaways during the season, tying for the lowest mark. The Falcons have had only one turnover in their last six games. So this should be a clean game meaning no short drives based on great field position off a turnover, or a fluke defensive touchdown. The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break style of a well-crafted defense. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed at 15.6 per game. Yes, the Patriots played easy offensive opponents and weak quarterbacks in most of their games. But surrendering fewer than 16 points a game for an entire season still is impressive. New England has a very strong secondary. Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty are elite players.  There probably isn't a more well-coached defense than the Patriots. Having two weeks to prepare is huge, too, for the Patriots. Only three opponents have scored 30 plus points in 33 playoff games against Belichick. In 18 of those 33 games, playoff foes scored 20 points or less.  The Falcons offense is too diversified and playing at too high of a level to hold completely down. But they are not in Georgia Dome, could accumulate some rust with the layoff and won't be able to make many long gains against a New England defense geared to prevent big plays. It's going to take long patient drives for the Falcons - featuring a balanced attack - for them to get points. Any drive resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown is a win for the under with a total this high.  Atlanta's defense has improved as the season progressed so its overall statistics are skewed. The Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. Dan Quinn has transformed the Falcons from a finesse defense weak in the trenches into an aggressive, hard-hitting unit that found the right blitzing lanes against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game. Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in sacks. The Patriots also are without their No. 1 receiving weapon, Rob Gronkowski. The way to beat Atlanta is ball-control with a lot of power running. The Patriots can do that with LeGarrette Blount mixed up with Brady moving the chains with short passes. That's an effective attack. It's also time consuming.  It's asking a lot for a touchdown to result after each long drive. That's what needs to happen, though, when you have an over/under in this record range. I don't see it occurring frequently enough. Under is the way to go. 

Prop Bet Recommendations: I find this Super Bowl harder than most for individual player props, which I normally like to specialize in, because these offenses spread things around so much. Any fantasy football player can tell you how difficult it is to project what Patriots will do well on any given week because their game plans can either go run heavy with LeGarrette Blount, or pass happy with a different receiver featured. I do think the Patriots will try to get Dion Lewis free in space against Atlanta linebackers so I would look to bet Lewis Over 2 receptions.

My top prop, though, is laying around $1.75 on NO there will not be a special teams, or defensive touchdown. Neither team has a dangerous kick returner and both teams tied for the fewest giveaways during the regular season with just 11. Atlanta has turned the ball over once in its last six games. Brady doesn't throw interceptions unless he's heavily pressured and Atlanta lacks a great pass rush.

I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. 

Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins

The Lions' defense has been torched for 73 points and 823 yards in the last two weeks facing the Cowboys and Packers in prime time games. It's not a fluke. Detroit's defense lacks playmakers, doesn't pressure the quarterback - just two sacks the past two games in 62 drop-backs - and has a vulnerable secondary.  Russell Wilson is healthy and dangerous as ever. Seattle's defense, though, isn't as good as the past three years. The Seahawks are minus injured Earl Thomas, the best safety in football, and lacks the depth they've had before. Matthew Stafford is adept at throwing to a number of different targets. That negates some of Richard Sherman's dominance.  The weather isn't going to be bad either with temperatures in the 30's. 

No team gives up fewer yards per game than Houston. The Texans have been held back by the atrocious quarterback play of Brock Osweiler, the $72 million dollar bust.  Bill O'Brien finally has seen the light benching Osweiler for Tom Savage. Now I'm not nominating Savage for All-Pro status, but he's a clear upgrade on Osweiler. Savage is a downfield threat and makes DeAndre Hopkins, a top-10 wide receiver talent, viable again.  The Texans are trying to win a division title. They are home, have the superior defense and stronger motivation. The Bengals are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in five seasons. They just lost a close game to their arch-rival, the Steelers, this past Sunday. Now they have to travel on Christmas week for a game that doesn't mean anything to them.  The Bengals are 1-5 SU and ATS during their last six road games with their lone away victory during this span coming against the winless Browns. The most points the Bengals have scored on the road s is 23 and that occurred against Cleveland and the 4-10 Jets in Week 1. In their other five road games, the Bengals average 16.2 points a game. Cincinnati management showed that it doesn't care about winning this game by making the decision to hold out A.J. Green, who had been cleared to play. 

The Ravens aren't going to have an offensive explosion against the Patriots like they did against the Dolphins this past Sunday. That was just Joe Flacco's third multi-touchdown passing game of the season. He's a below average quarterback in my view and isn't helped by any special skill position talent especially at running back. 
New England has an underrated defense ranking third in fewest points allowed at 17.2 and ninth in fewest yards given up per game. 
Baltimore has the No. 1 run defense. The Patriots have had to scale back their once diverse offense because of Rob Gronkowski being out. Their wide receiver group is down reliable possession receiver Danny Amendola, too. Tom Brady hasn't been 100 percent hobbled by a sore knee.

The Vikings are the fresher team having played last Thursday and have playoff incentive something the Jaguars lack.

Minnesota gives up the third-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points. The Jaguars are averaging just 17.5 points per contest during their last eight games. Minnesota yields just 17.4 points per game. 

This is one game where you should have a good idea of where the turnovers are going to fall. The Vikings are No. 2 in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. The Jaguars are last at minus 18. 

Blake Bortles has more pick-sixs than wins during his three-year NFL career. 

Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. 
The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. 
Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up.
Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. 
Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured. 

This is the lowest total on the Week 13 NFL betting board. So taking more than a field goal is huge even though it's with Jacksonville. 
The Jaguars are poorly coached and have injuries with Chris Ivory, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas all likely not to play.
But the Broncos are in worst shape offensively with a below par ground attack, mediocre offensive line and rookie Paxton Lynch forced to make a road start. Jacksonville has a very underrated secondary having not allowed more than 280 yards passing to any quarterback. The Broncos figure to be ultra-conservative with Lynch, which isn't a great ingredient to cover a spread as road chalk. 
Denver's defense has surrendered 83 points in its last three games. The Broncos' defense still is very good, but it's not as dominant as last season. Blake Bortles brings a huge mobility element. 
The Jaguars have come very close at home nearly upsetting Green Bay opening week, losing to the Ravens by two points, beating the Colts and falling to the Texans by three. Jacksonville could have won all of those games. The Jaguars' only bad home loss was to the 9-2 Raiders. 
Given the Broncos' limited resources offensively, the Jaguars should be in for another close call at home. 

Thanks to Colin Kaepernick the 49ers have shown much improvement during the last three weeks playing the Cardinals, Patriots and Dolphins all tough. Now San Francisco steps way down in class.
Kaepernick has accounted for multiple touchdowns in his last four games. He's a dual threat maybe the best running quarterback in the NFL right now. The Bears are littered with injuries and suspensions everywhere, including inside linebackers minus Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. That makes Chicago extremely vulnerable to the 49ers' read-option offense. 
The Bears aren't going to be able to keep up with the 49ers because of multiple injuries to key offensive linemen and skill position players. Matt Barkley will be making just his second pro start. He's missing several of his best offensive linemen and is throwing to backup receivers, who dropped numerous passes last week. The Bears' two best pass catchers are Alshon Jeffery, who is suspended, and tight end Zach Miller, who's out for the season. 
Home-field doesn't matter much when it's the Bears. Chicago has lost 13 of its last 16 at Solider Field going 5-11 ATS. 

Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. 
Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. 
The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys. 

Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. 
The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. 
Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. 
Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. 
Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers. 

Credit Jack Del Rio with doing a great job this season with the Raiders. Having said that, though, I believe the Raiders are very overrated. Yes, they are 8-2. But they've also been outgained on the season, have committed the most penalties in the league by far and are 1-3 ATS in games played in Oakland. 
The Panthers are showing signs of what made them last season's NFC champions. They have won three of their last four games holding all of these foes - including New Orleans and Arizona - to fewer than 21 points. 
Carolina has won straight-up the last four times it has been an underdog. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and have also failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've played a below .500 opponent. 
The Panthers' ground attack is due to pick up now that Jonathan Stewart is back in the lineup. The Raiders have yielded 100 yards rushing in all but three of their games. 
The timing isn't good either for the Raiders here. They just played Monday night in high, high altitude and dirty air in Mexico City having to go to the wire to beat Houston. Oakland's defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes in that victory. 

Tom Brady has been back for six games. He has a 16-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and because of him the Patriots have averaged 31.6 points per game in their last six games. That would rank No. 2 in the NFL if it were computed over the entire season. 
It's a plus if Rob Gronkowski is able to play this week. But even if he doesn't, Brady has more than enough weapons especially with Dion Lewis making his season debut last week. Lost in another brilliant Brady season is the great running of LeGarrette Blount. He's seventh in rushing and tied for the league lead in touchdowns. 
The Jets' defense has slipped especially cornerback Darrelle Revis. New York is 21st in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points per game. It's a given that New England is going to get its share of points. 
But can the Jets put up their share of points, too? 
I say they can. New England's defense is mediocre at best. The Jets averaged 24.5 points against New England in their two meetings last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 295.5 yards passing against the Patriots with five touchdowns last year. The Jets have the advantage of being idle last week giving them extra time to game plan. 
There should be no weather-related problems. The forecast is for a clear day with temperatures in the 40s and just a light wind. 

You have to go back to the opening game of the 2012 season to find the last time Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than four points. Since then the Bengals have dominated this series winning the past five times. 
The Bengals have made the playoffs the past five years. That streak is in serious jeopardy if the Bengals lose this game. Cincinnati isn't as good as it has been the last few years. However, the Ravens are in down mode, too, better than last season but not nearly as good as their playoff team of two years ago. 
This is a key divisional showdown between two good defensive teams with mediocre quarterbacks so points are at a premium. I want this many points going for me here.
Both teams are averaging exactly 19.9 points per game. Andy Dalton is merely a game manager minus top wide receiver A.J. Green. But Joe Flacco is worse ranking 27th in the passer ratings. 
Much is made of the Bengals losing Green and running back Giovani Bernard to injuries in last week's 16-12 loss to Buffalo. But the Ravens have injuries, too, in their offensive line and at cornerback where Jimmy Smith, their top pass defender, is questionable after missing last week.
The Ravens are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. The Bengals have committed the seventh fewest penalties. The Ravens aren't good enough to lay this many points here against this prideful and playoff-experienced foe that has covered 15 of the last 22 times following a loss. 

Arizona is better than its 4-5-1 record. The Cardinals are in must-win mode and the pointspread has become inflated. 
David Johnson is a top-three running back and the Cardinals' defense gives up the fewest yards per game. The Cardinals get back key playmaking safety Tyrann Mathieu and have All-Pro cornerback to shadow Julio Jones. 
The Falcons don't generate much pass pressure and their offense is less effective when Jones can be handled in single coverage. Peterson is one of the few cornerbacks capable of handling Jones. 

The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot.
Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. 
The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. 
Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. 
Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. 
About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. 
Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. 
Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games. 

Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. 
The Vikings then got cold losing four in a row averaging 14 points a game during this span. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner bailed early this month and there were offensive line injuries. One of the Vikings' defeats during this time frame came to the Lions, 22-16, in overtime. The Vikings were playing their worst ball during this time yet the Lions were going to lose if not for a 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater at the end of regulation that forced overtime. 
Minnesota is playing better now having just defeated the Cardinals, 30-24, at home. The disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday is mitigated here by the short travel and the Vikings familiarity with the Lions, who they played less than three weeks ago. 
Neither team can run the ball. Matthew Stafford was hot early in the season, but has cooled off considerably. He has not passed for more than 278 yards during his last seven games. The Lions could manage only one touchdown on offense versus the lowly Jaguars at home last Sunday. Stafford is averaging one touchdown pass per game in his last four games. That's not impressive in today's pass happy, offensive-skewed NFL. 
The Vikings hold a strong defensive and coaching edge here. Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and he knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions are averaging 16.8 points in regulation in five games against the Zimmer-coached Vikings. Not once have the Lions been able to reach 20 points against Minnesota in regulation during the Zimmer era. 
The Vikings are used now to playing indoors on turf. Their offense showed signs of improvement last week more comfortable now that new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has had a few weeks to get acclimated. 

I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. 
You can talk that this is a long trip for the Patriots and they won't have injured Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots still should bury this opponent especially given the circumstances.
New England just lost at home to Seattle. That doesn't sit well with Bill Belichick. The Patriots have covered 74 percent of the time following a defeat during the past 43 instances. 
Since Week 1, the 49ers have gone 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS. Their defense has fallen apart due to their best players getting hurt and fatigue from their offense playing at such a fast-tempo. In their last eight games, the 49ers are giving up an average of 35 points and 460 yards.
The Patriots are averaging 32 points per contest since Tom Brady came back from suspension five games ago. Brady has the highest passer rating in the league at 125.5 with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. LeGarrette Blount has put up the most touchdowns of any non-quarterback. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. But Martellius Bennett is a top-10 talent. 
San Francisco's offense has improved since Colin Kaepernick took over from Blaine Gabbert. But it remains limited and well below average. The 49ers are not going to be able to keep up with a motivated and mad Patriots squad that has an elite offense. 

Miami has won four in a row. The Dolphins are staying in Southern California after upsetting San Diego this past Sunday so long travel is negated. 
The Dolphins are playing much better. A key has been the emergence of Jay Ajayi, who is the hottest running back in football with 608 yards rushing in his last four games. That's more yards than Todd Gurley has managed all season.
But the main reason for backing the Dolphins is fading the Rams with their decision to give rookie Jared Goff his first start. Goff was terrible during preseason. It's a testament to how bad Goff is that the Rams have waited all this time to bench ineffective Case Keenum. 
The Rams' strengths were supposed to be Gurley and a tough defense. Gurley hasn't cleared 100 yards rushing all season, averaging a puny 3.1 yards per carry. The Rams defense has forced only two turnovers since Week 4. 

The Lions haven't won a game by more than six points all season. They have a six-point overtime victory. Their other four victories were by a combined 11 points. 
The Jaguars actually gain more yards per game and give up fewer yards per game than the Lions. The Jaguars have outgained their last two opponents - Chiefs and Texans - by close to 280 yards. Those two teams are a combined 13-5. 
Jacksonville has an underrated pass defense and skill position talent. The Lions have a below average defense that was torched by Case Keenum at home and rank 27th in rushing yards. 
Matthew Stafford has tailed off after a hot start. He's gone six games in a row without topping 270 yards passing. Blake Bortles has been turnover prone, but he's connected for multiple touchdown passes in his last three games and is facing a Lions secondary that gives up the third-most touchdown passes and a league-high 112.4 passer rating. 

It's tough to step in against the Cowboys, who have won and covered every game since opening week. But Dallas' line is inflated here. The Ravens are well-coached and strong defensively allowing 17.8 points a game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. No team yields fewer yards and rushing yards per game than Baltimore. 
The Ravens' four losses were by a combined 19 points for an average loss of 4.7 points. 
The Cowboys are flirting with danger. They narrowly defeated Pittsburgh last week pulling the game out late in a very hard fought battle. The Cowboys also had to go through the distraction of welcoming Tony Romo back this week. The Ravens, on the other hand, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 
As a home favorite of six or more points, the Cowboys have failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times. 

This is a low total given the firepower of the Cardinals and the matchup being played on a fast track. 
Minnesota's defense isn't playing as well as it did earlier. The Vikings are allowing an average of 22.5 points during their last four games. Carson Palmer has a multitude of weapons to attack headed by David Johnson, who has put up 100 rushing/receiving yards in every game this season, future Hall of Famer and still effective Larry Fitzgerald, home run threat John Brown and a revived Michael Floyd. 
Bruce Arians is an offensive guru. It's difficult to envision the Cardinals not getting their 20 points here. They average more than 22 points per game on the season and rank seventh in total yards.
The Vikings have decent receivers for Sam Bradford, who is accurate when given protection. Stefon Diggs has emerged as a sparkplug force. The Vikings also improved their field goal and extra point kicking by finally cutting Blair Walsh. 
The Cardinals haven't been nearly as effective on defense when play on the road surrendering an average of 28 points a game - facing the Bills, 49ers and Panthers. The 49ers put up 21 and 20 points in their two games versus the Cardinals. The Vikings should be good for at least 20 points, too. 

At first this spread may seem a little high. But New England is the best team in football while Seattle is down from past seasons and caught in a horrendous situational spot.
New England is 4-0 since Tom Brady returned. Brady has the highest QB rating in the league by far at 133.9. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes without an interception. The Patriots are averaging 34.2 points per game in Brady's four games winning by 20, 18, 11 and 16 points. 
Seattle lacks the skill position talent and offensive line to keep up with Brady. The Seahawks' grit and guts can't overcome that talent gap especially when they're missing at least one key defensive player. Safety Kam Chancellor may return this week, but star pass rusher Michael Bennett remains out. 
Making things worse for Seattle is the situation. The Patriots were idle last week. New England is 11-2 the past 13 times off a bye, 8-5 ATS. The extra practice time should make Brady even sharper. The Patriots also could get back Deion Lewis for this game, which would upgrade their ground attack and give Brady an upgrade pass-catcher out of the backfield. 
The Seahawks just played on Monday night at home in a tough physical, down-to-the-last-minute victory against Buffalo. Now the Seahawks have to travel 3,000 miles on a short week playing in a time zone with a three-hour difference. 

Ben Roethlisberger has had a game to shake off the rust and is back home. That makes Pittsburgh very dangerous. Roethlisberger has a 51-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Heniz Field since 2014 compared to 19-to-19 on the road during this three-year span. 
Antonio Brown has proven himself to be the best wide receiver in football when Roethlisberger is playing. The pair can dice up a Dallas secondary that is minus Morris Claiborne and Barry Church. 
The Steelers defense has gotten healthy with the return of top linebacker Ryan Shazier and lineman Cameron Heyward. 
The Steelers are in circle-the-wagons mode after three consecutive losses. Dallas is fat and happy with a seven-game win streak and two-game lead in the NFC East Division. 

The Titans are a rising team, much better than believed at the start of the season. Green Bay has been one of more disappointing teams in the league.
But this is a chance to buy low on the Packers, who clearly are superior both at the skill positions but in the trenches, too. Green Bay's No. 3 wideout, Davante Adams, is better than the Titans' top wide receiver. 
Second-year QB Marcus Mariota isn't ready yet at this young stage of his career to beat Aaron Rodgers. The Packers offense is potent enough to score a lot of points especially against a Tennessee defense that has been coached up by Dick LeBeau, but still not very good. 
This is a good time to get behind the Packers with their backs to the wall and enduring a lot of deserved criticism for not playing hard during a surprising home loss to the Colts this past Sunday. 

I'm not buying the Saints being favored against the defending world champions whose defense remains elite. 
Denver ranks No. 1 against the pass holding foes to 183.3 yards through the air. Overall, Denver has the fourth-ranked defense. Von Miller has 9 1/2 sacks. He's the most feared pass rusher in football with J.J. Watt out. Drew Brees is not going to be able to pick Denver's secondary apart. 
By contrast, the Saints rank last in pass defense. Trevor Siemian isn't in Brees' class, not even close. However, the bar is set much lower for him facing such a terrible defense. The Saints are tied for last in sacks with just 11. Siemian has played better on the road, too, with eight touchdown throws and only one interception in four away matchups. 

Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games.
However, this is that rare spot where the Browns are worth backing. 
Baltimore is struggling mightily on offense. The change in offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago hasn't helped. Joe Flacco is having one of his worst seasons with a 76 passer rating, the Ravens' ground game has been ineffective and their offensive line has been banged-up and isn't playing well either. There haven numerous mistakes and penalties. 
The Ravens are playing on a short week after just beating their biggest division rival, Pittsburgh, this past Sunday due in part to a rusty Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens could manage only 274 yards against a Steelers defense that ranked 27th in total yards entering the matchup. If you discount Mike Wallace's 95-yard touchdown catch, which came on a slant patter where Wallace took advantage of a missed tackle, the Ravens averaged less than three yards per play versus the Steelers. 
The Ravens have been outgained their last five games. Not one of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by more than eight points. 
The Browns are playing for next year, but they sure don't want to go winless. Their defense is better now with Jamie Collins than what it was in Week 2 when they lost to the Ravens, 25-20. The Browns led 20-0 in that game. They won't lack for motivation here and their familiarity with Baltimore is a key playing on Thursday. The Browns beat the Ravens, 33-30, at Baltimore last season. 

Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. 
Seattle has a couple of defensive injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. The Seahawks still are very strong defensively. Buffalo could be missing two of its key offensive players if LeSean McCoy and left tackle Cody Glenn can't play due to injuries. The Bills actually would be doing the wise thing by holding out McCoy giving his sore hamstring another two weeks of rest since the team has a bye following this game.
Injuries have limited Russell Wilson into being merely a glorified game manager. But Wilson is healthy now restoring his dangerous dual threat capability. I can see a big game coming from him. The Bills aren't likely to have run-stuffer Marcell Dareus. So the Seahawks should be able to run, which makes Wilson even more effective.
The Bills are making a cross country journey into the toughest outdoor venue in the NFL. Since 2013, the Seahawks have won 28 of 32 home games. 

Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. 
Tennessee just may be the best team in the AFC South Division. Now perhaps that's faint praise, but Tennessee is vastly improved in all areas. 
Backed by a resurgent DeMarco Murray and what now has become a decent offensive line, Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the last four weeks. The Titans have scored 26 or more points in each of their last four games. Consequently, San Diego gives up 26.5 points a game to rank 24th in scoring defense. The Chargers also are 24th in pass defense.
Philip Rivers bravely soldiers on as the Chargers are one of the more banged-up teams in the league with a cluster injury problem at linebacker, down their best cornerback and with multiple receiver injuries. Rivers already has been playing minus his best receiver, Keenan Allen, and dependable third-down back Danny Woodhead. 
Dick LeBeau has helped coach up the Titans defense, which should get cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. The Titans' confidence is high after dismantling the Jaguars. They've also had extra time since that victory came last Thursday. 
This isn't a great spot for the Chargers, who have yet to have their bye. The Chargers lost to Oakland on the road in a division game four weeks ago. Then the Chargers upset Denver at home on national television in another division game. That was followed by an upset overtime road win against the Falcons and then last week the Chargers played another AFC West game losing a tough one to the Broncos in a huge matchup. 

The buy sign is on for Carolina. The Panthers came out of their bye refreshed and invigorated beating the Cardinals. 
I don't see Cam Newton and Co. slipping up against the Rams. Carolina is coming off an eight-sack game. The Panthers' lone major weakness is their secondary particularly cornerback. But Case Keenum doesn't have the talent or weapons to take advantage.
Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Rams, who barely average 17. Todd Gurley has been the most disappointing running back in the NFL averaging 57 yards per game and failing to break the 100-yard rushing barrier in 14 of his last 15 games. 
The Rams' defense has proven vastly overrated forcing just one turnover in their last three games and having only 10 sacks on the season. The Rams also have been dealing with key defensive injuries. It's a plus for the Panthers if the Rams continue to miss cornerback Trumaine Johnson and defensive lineman Michael Brockers. 
Carolina's ground attack is back on track, too, with Jonathan Stewart returning to  the lineup. 

The Chiefs are a conservative, grind-out team not built to cover margins past a touchdown. Now the Chiefs will be without Alex Smith. The Chiefs already are thin at running back and have an overrated defense that doesn't apply much of a pass rush. That problem isn't likely to be corrected until Justin Houston returns to the lineup and he's not ready this week. 
The Jaguars do possess talent - on both sides of the ball. Blake Bortles has regressed this season, but still rates a clear edge over Chiefs back-up quarterback journeyman Nick Foles. The Chiefs are much more vulnerable to turnovers now with the downgrade from efficient game-manager Smith to Foles. 
Jacksonville has had extra prep and rest time for this matchup. The Jaguars are off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Titans. The Jaguars fired their offensive coordinator following the loss to the Titans. That could provide a needed spark. 
But mainly this handicap is a fade on the Chiefs, who are overpriced at home - where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Arrowhead - and taking advantage of Kansas City's injuries at the skill positions.  

In Mike Zimmer we trust. The Vikings are coming off two terrible offensive performances. Their vaunted defense didn't cover themselves with glory either in an embarrassing Monday night road loss to the Bears. 
Norv Turner, the team's highly respected offensive coordinator, quit this week, too. The trade-off for all of this is getting the Vikings at home at a decent price against the Lions, a team that made Case Keenum look like a Pro Bowl quarterback three weeks ago when they were home and failed to keep the Texans and Brock Osweiler from scoring 20 points this past Sunday. 
How underrated is Zimmer? Minnesota has covered 19 of its last 24 games. The Vikings are 10-3 ATS as chalk. They have covered the past six times at home, including all three times this season. Minnesota has won five of those games with the only defeat coming, 10-9, in the playoffs last season when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal with 22 seconds left. 
The Vikings are back home after two straight road defeats. Detroit's one-dimensional offense is going to have problems against the Vikings, who rank No. 1 in scoring defense and in the top four in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. Opponents average less than 15 points against Minnesota. 
I have little doubt the Vikings defense will do their job especially in their new stadium, which rivals any as far as providing Minnesota with a home field advantage. 
The key for the Vikings in covering this number is how much offense can they produce? Pat Schurmur replaces Turner as offensive coordinator. He actually might be a better fit since he has a history and closeness with Sam Bradford. Jerick McKinnon is expected to play after missing the Bears game. That would give the Vikings a back who can get outside plus a receiving threat out of the backfield to go with inside runner Matt Asiata. 
The Lions also have multiple key defensive injuries, the most important being to cornerback Darius Slay. He's dealing with a hamstring injury and may be held out another week since the Lions have a bye following this game. 

Atlanta has a very good offense. The Falcons are a little improved defensively, but still very bad. The result is a great combination to go over the total. That's what the Falcons have done in seven of their eight games. No other team has a better over mark than Atlanta's 7-1.
The only time the Falcons went under is when they defeated Denver - an outstanding defensive team with a bad quarterback - 23-16. If you discount that matchup, the combined total of the Falcons' other seven games this season is 64.8 points per game. 
Matt Ryan has been an above average quarterback for nine years. This just may be his finest season. Ryan is leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 19 and in passing yards. Julio Jones is now considered by many, including myself, to be the best wide receiver in football. 
The Falcons have other weapons, though. Ryan has thrown a touchdown pass to 10 different players. Devonta Freeman is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL. 
Tampa Bay's defense ranks 25th in points allowed at 27 per game. The Buccaneers give up the seventh-most yards per game, too. Opponents have scored 27 or more points on the Buccaneers in four of the past six games.
The timing of this matchup being on Thursday is brutal for the Buccaneers' defense, which was on the field for nearly 45 minutes this past Sunday in an overtime loss to the Raiders. Tampa Bay's starting cornerbacks were on the field for 93 plays. The Bucs surrendered a staggering 626 yards to Oakland, 7.4 yards per snap. The Falcons' offense is better than the Raiders and Atlanta won't commit a record number of penalties either like the Raiders did. The Buccaneers' defense is going to be gassed early with such a short turnaround. 
Atlanta may come close to covering this total by itself. The key is the Buccaneers doing their part by putting up a fair share of points. I see that happening. Yes, the Buccaneers are down their first three running backs and No. 2 wideout Vincent Jackson is out. 
But they still have Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, one of the best wide receivers in the league. The Buccaneers put up 34 points when they beat Atlanta, 31-24, opening week. Winston had a huge game with four touchdown passes while going 23-for-33 for 281 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers had been the Bucs' main runner following injuries to Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Rodgers was putting up solid numbers, but he's not that good. His numbers were there because of high volume. Antone Smith is next man up for the Buccaneers. I've always liked him. He's fast and a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. I think he's better than Rodgers. 
The bar isn't set high for Tampa Bay to score a lot. Atlanta ranks 29th in scoring defense yielding 28.9 points per game. The Falcons give up the sixth-most passing yards.
There's a chance of light rain, but little wind. So bad weather shouldn't factor.  

The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. 
This is a Monday night home game for the Bears. But they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. People in Illinois are excited about the Cubs in the World Series not the Bears. The Vikings are going to have their share of fans for this game so the Bears have a limited home field advantage.
Minnesota is a point spread machine under Mike Zimmer covering 19 of the last 23 times. The Vikings are off an upset loss to the Eagles. Minnesota didn't play well in that game perhaps because it came following its bye week. Look for Zimmer to have the Vikings fully ready and motivated for this matchup. 
The Vikings entered this week ranked No. 1 defensively in fewest yards and points allowed. The Bears have Jay Cutler back at quarterback. That's not necessarily a plus for them. Cutler is a lame duck who the Bears don't want to keep after this season. Cutler's teammates rarely respond well  to him. 
Chicago gives an effort defensively. The Bears just have too many injuries, though, and not enough talent. They rank among the bottom 12 in points surrendered. 
This is a mismatch not fully reflected in the point spread. 

This is too many points for the Cowboys to lay in this fierce division rivalry.
The Cowboys are 3-12 ATS the past 15 times they've been a home favorite. The Eagles have defeated Dallas in five of the last six meetings, including the past three times on the road.
Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott both have exceeded expectations. The Cowboys have the better skill position players, but I like the Eagles defense better. 
The Cowboys lack a pass rush. They have just nine sacks. The Eagles' defense has been much better than perceived ranking third in fewest points and fifth in yards allowed. 
Dallas had a bye last week. That could work against the Cowboys as they had plenty of momentum before then. Too many times a team goes into their bye on a roll, hears how great they are and than is flat the following week. It happened to the Eagles and it just happened to the Vikings this past Sunday. 

Aside from Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton, the Colts hold no edges against Kansas City. The Chiefs should dominate both lines of scrimmage. They have the superior defense and running game. 
Alex Smith isn't fancy. But he gets the job done. He's facing a very weak defense. The Colts give up nearly 29 points a game and 400 yards. They rank 28th in points allowed and yards surrendered. 
The Colts haven't been able to protect Luck very well. He's been sacked an NFL-high 25 times. The Chiefs' overall team efficiency trumps Luck's one-man brilliance. 

Let me get this off my chest right away. I deplore Bill O'Brien's play not-to-lose approach. I understand it, though, because he has a stiff for a quarterback in Brock Osweiler. 
There may be only two worst starting quarterbacks than Osweiler and that's Colin Kaepernick and Case Keenum. Kaepernick at least brings a dangerous run dimension to his game. The Lions haven't faced Kaepernick, but they went against Keenum two games ago at home and made the journeyman look like Joe Montana. Keenum was 27 of 32 for 321 yards with three touchdown passes and one interception against Detroit. 
This is a big game for the Texans following their embarrassing Monday night loss to the Broncos. The Texans are not in the class of the Broncos and Patriots. But because of their defense, they are a step above the Lions. 
The Lions are a dome team traveling for the first time in four weeks. They are going to play in an outdoor grass stadium. They are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 grass games. 
Matthew Stafford is playing well. Marvin Jones is showing he can be a No. 1 wide receiver. But the Lions' defense can't compare to the Texans especially with the key injuries they have. The Lions have been out without their top run stuffer, Haloti Ngata, their best linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and last week their top defensive back,Darius Slay, suffered a hamstring injury. 
I don't trust the Texans to cover a margin. But I do trust them to win this home game. So I'm going to lay extra juice and back the Texans on the money line. 

The Jets couldn't survive a brutal first half schedule that included four road games in seven weeks and matchups against the Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens. 
But New York still is a much better team than Cleveland. The Browns rank in the bottom three defensively in points given up, yards allowed and rushing yards. The Browns just allowed 559 yards and 9.2 yards per play to the Bengals, who had averaged 17.2 points during their previous five games. 
The Jets - unlike the Browns - do have some strong areas. They have an excellent defensive line and above average skill position talent with Brandon Marshall and all-purpose running back Matt Forte. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at quarterback. Like him or not, he's still better than the now-injured Geno Smith. Fitzpatrick won't look so bad against such a terrible defense. The Browns have surrendered the most touchdowns passes in the NFL with 18. 
Cleveland has limited firepower on offense. Josh McCown is back at quarterback. He's a journeyman like Fitzpatrick except his skill position players aren't as good, his offensive line has key injuries and he's facing a stronger defense. Cleveland fans are loyal. But right now they're involved with the Indians and Cavaliers. So having home field isn't nearly enough to negate the Jets' big-time edges. 

It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. 
Now Tom Brady is back. The Patriots are going to be extremely fired-up for this game. They had never been shut out at home in the 15-year history of Gillette Stadium before that first Buffalo game. 
Brady has numerous offensive weapons. LeGarrette Blount is having a big year, too, providing the Patriots with a needed power back. 
The situation is quite different than it was four weeks ago when Brady still was under suspension and the Bills had a healthy LeSean McCoy. Not only is McCoy hobbled by a hamstring injury, but the Bills also are without their best receiver, Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent running quarterback, but he's not a strong downfield passer. Belichick will be able to defend Buffalo's one dimensional attack. Taylor needs weapons to succeed. He doesn't have them. 
The Bills' 4-3 record is deceiving. Besides taking advantage of New England's dire quarterback problems, they also beat the Rams and 49ers. Miami exposed Buffalo this past Sunday outgaining the Bills by 187 yards and holding a 14-minute time possession edge. 
The Bills don't figure to hang around based on turnovers either as New England quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception all season.
Before losing to the Bills, the Patriots had defeated Buffalo 30 of the past 32 times. The Patriots have rolled past the Bills by a touchdown or more in 21 of their last 27 victories. New England has a bye the following week. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four times before a bye. They will be holding nothing back. This is a kill spot for the Patriots with the talent and situation stacked in their favor. 

First off, this isn't such a hard total to go over in today's NFL passing world with the rules skewed in the offense's favor. 
Still, the handicap to both team's offenses has to work - and it does.
Let's begin with the Seahawks. They are going against an Arizona defense that is down compared to last season. The Seahawks have a history of piling up points in Glendale averaging 35 points during their last three visits. Russell Wilson has been fantastic against Arizona's defense during these three road games completing 57 of 88 passes for 771 yards with an 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Cardinals have problems with mobile quarterbacks and no quarterback is more mobile than Wilson. 
Wilson is back healthy and dangerous as ever. Seattle's offensive line has improved, Jimmy Graham is healthy and contributing and Christine Michael has come through as an effective running back. The Seahawks have a balanced offense and Wilson is an elite quarterback. Seattle is going to get its share of points here. 
Now for the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like a tough matchup for Arizona's offense. Seattle ranks first in fewest yards given up and has held foes to less than 16 points per game. However, the Seahawks have gone against only one good offense. That was at home versus the Falcons. The other teams the Seahawks have played were the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers and Jets. 
So far Carson Palmer isn't having the great year he had last season. But Palmer still is much better than those first four quarterbacks Seattle drew - Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick. You could make the argument that Keenum, Gabbert and Fitzpatrick were the least effective quarterbacks during the first quarter of the season. Gabbert and Fitzpatrick have since lost their starting jobs. 
Palmer has good receivers. The Cardinals also have a stud running back for the first time in Bruce Arians' four years as coach. David Johnson rates with Ezekial Elliott as the best runner in football. Thanks to Johnson, the Cardinals have rushed for 343 yards in their last two games. 
The Seahawks can't just key on Arizona's passing game. Their first responsibility is likely to focus on Johnson. This task is made more difficult for Seattle because star strong safety Kam Chancellor is expected to miss a second straight game due to a groin injury. He didn't practice all week. 

The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. 
This game figures to be a shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. The Chargers are 2-4, but could be undefeated with better luck. They have outscored their opponents by 18 points. So their record is highly misleading.
The Chargers' confidence is up, though, after they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. That occurred last Thursday so the Chargers have had ample time to rest and prepare. Rivers can definitely take advantage of a soft Falcons defense that has multiple injuries at linebacker and doesn't rush the passer well.
San Diego has covered 20 of the last 29 times it has been a road 'dog. Mike McCoy has been under fire as Chargers head coach, but his team has covered eight of their past 10 games. 

The Vikings have been the biggest money-makers in the NFL under Mike Zimmer covering an amazing 18 of their last 21 games. 
I like the undefeated Vikings in this spot, too, off a bye and catching the Eagles tumbling back to Earth. The Eagles opened 3-0 beating the Browns opening week and taking advantage of the Bears and Steelers, both of whom were missing key skill position players at the time. 
The Vikings give up just 12.6 points per game, fewest in the NFL, and are No. 2 in total defense. The Eagles surrendered 493 yards to the Redskins last week, including 230 on the ground. Their defense was on the field for more than 34 minutes.The Vikings should get back their best wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, and upgraded their offensive line during the bye signing former Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long. 
Philadelphia couldn't manage a touchdown on offense against the Redskins' vulnerable defense. The Eagles are now without suspended offensive tackle Lane Johnson. The Vikings have a fierce pass rush. Philadelphia has been playing sloppy committing 37 penalties in their last three games. 

This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. 
The Texans have a strong defense. They rank fifth in fewest yards allowed and are No. 1 in pass defense. 
The Colts have a defense for the ages - the dark ages. It's one of their worst ever, which is saying a lot. Indy just allowed the Bears and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to roll up 522 yards in a six-point home win that was closer than the score may indicate. 
The Texans beat the Bears by nine points opening week and the Bears have regressed since then due to multiple injuries. 
I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler. But the Texans' offensive line should be much improved with the return of left tackle Duane Brown. Osweiler has a top-five wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid running back in Lamar Miller. 
The Colts are giving up 29.6 points a game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and are 30th in yards given up. 
Indy wins games by outscoring opponents in shootouts. The Colts have been fortunate to draw below average defenses in four of their first five games. Their offensive line is inexperienced and can't protect Andrew Luck, who already has been sacked 20 times. The Texans have a strong pass rush even without injured J.J. Watt with emerging stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. 
Look for the Texans to dominate both lines of scrimmage - and the game. 

The elements - both matchup-wise and weather-wise - are there for this total to go under.
Seattle's defense is as dominant as ever giving up the fewest yards per game and third-fewest points per game at 13.5. The Seahawks could have allowed even fewer points per game but their defensive numbers are skewed a bit because of giving up a fluke touchdown on an offensive fumble returned for a touchdown and letting up against the 49ers after building a huge lead. 
The Seahawks have had ample time to game plan for Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. having been idle this past week. 
The Falcons are in a flat spot having just upset the Broncos in Denver. Their offense is built for carpet inside a dome. This game is on grass in the loudest outdoor venue in the NFL. 
Atlanta is improved defensively. Falcons coach Dan Quinn knows the Seahawks having been the team's defensive coordinator before being named Falcons head coach. The Falcons do have a cluster injury problem at linebacker, but there's a very good chance star rookie linebacker and the team's second-leading tackler, Deion Jones, plays after missing last week with an ankle injury.
Bad weather is expected for this game with wind and rain.  

I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. 
Oakland is much improved. Granted. But the Chiefs have won five of the past six meetings. They have the better defense and superior ground attack. Derek Carr is an emerging star. Alex Smith wins, though. The Chiefs are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Smith behind center. 
The Raiders are facing a triple whammy here. They are fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak, including holding off San Diego this past Sunday for a big AFC West Division victory. 
The Chiefs are off their worst loss since Andy Reid took over - an embarrassing 43-14 nationally televised Sunday night loss to the Steelers. That was two weeks ago. The Chiefs were idle last week. So they will have had two weeks to stew about that defeat. 
No coach is better off a bye than Reid. His Eagles and Chiefs teams are 15-2 after being idle the week before. That's 88 percent for a 17-game sampling. 
Oakland has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home contests. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS the past 30 times laying points, including failing to cover the past five times they've been home chalk. 
The Raiders may not have their best running back, Latavius Murray, again. The Chiefs' star running back, Jamaal Charles, should be ready now for full-time duty. Smith has weapons with Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders give up the most total yards and passing yards in the NFL. They also rank 27th in run defense. 

The Steelers are on full throttle since Le'Veon Bell returned from suspension scoring 84 points and piling up 869 yards during their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger is on fire during this span completing 76 percent of his passes with nine touchdown throws and no interceptions.
The Dolphins' porous defense, which is especially weak in the back seven, isn't going to be able to slow down the Steelers. Strong safety Reshad Jones easily is the Dolphins' best player in the secondary. He's dealing with a groin injury, though, and may not play. 
A key is if the Dolphins can hold up their end and produce their share of points. Look for Miami's offense to come around this week. The Steelers' defense isn't that good and the Dolphins - for the first time all season - are healthy in the offensive line. Their two best offensive linemen - center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert - are both expected to play. Miami also could get back its best running back, Arian Foster.
Ryan Tannehill will be far more productive with better offensive line support, which I see happening here. 

San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. 
The Chargers are banged-up in the secondary - missing two of their three best cornerbacks in Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers - and Philip Rivers doesn't have several of his key offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The Chargers' offensive line is going to have problems handling Von Miller, who already has 6 1/2 sacks, and the rest of the Denver pass rush. 
The Falcons were able to run on the Chargers. I don't see the Chargers doing that. Melvin Gordon has found the end zone this year, but he's far from an elite running back. 
Denver is fuming from losing at home to Atlanta. The Broncos defense did their job even though it permitted more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. The Broncos were done in by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch starting his first NFL game. Denver's blocking was below par, too, minus right tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green.
Word is both Stephenson and Green will be ready for Thursday game. Another key is that regular quarterback Trevor Siemian also will be ready. 
Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is expected to miss the game, hospitalized because of complex migraines. I see this as even more incentive for the Broncos to win one for their coach especially coming off a home loss. 
San Diego may have the worst home field advantage of any team in the league. The Chargers find ways to lose nearly every week having blown leads to the Chiefs, Colts and Saints. Now they draw the defending champs, a team that really knows how to win. 

Aaron Rodgers is very good at any venue, but he's an absolute monster at Lambeau Field where since 2014 he has thrown 46 touchdown passes and been picked off just four times. The Giants' defense is improved, but not nearly enough to slow down Green Bay's offense, which showed definite improvement in its last game and is coming off a bye. Jordy Nelson is nearing 100 percent, making a big difference for Green Bay. 
The Giants only have four sacks. They are weak defensively inside with below average linebackers and their secondary is beat-up with slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and cornerback Eli Apple looking like they're going to miss a second straight game. Free safety Darian Thompson may not play either due to a foot injury. That would mean New York would be missing three of its top five secondary people.
Kirk Cousins had a 106.4 passer rating against the Giants two weeks ago and Sam Bradford turned in a 101.9 quarterback rating this past Monday against New York. This bodes well for a huge game from Rodgers. 
The Giants are due for a breakout game on offense - and I see that coming here against a 29th-ranked Packers secondary giving up a 66 percent completion rate and 307 yards through the air. The Packers won't have Sam Shields, their best cornerback, and may also be missing their next best cornerback, Demarious Randall. The Giants have a strong passing attack they've just been slowed by turnovers. 
Giants coach Ben McAdoo knows the Packers well having been an offensive assistant in Green Bay from 2006-2013. The Packers haven't faced a wide receiver the caliber of Odell Beckham Jr. yet. Stefon Diggs lit up the Packers secondary for 182 yards on nine receptions three weeks ago. Then in their last game, the Packers surrendered 205 receiving yards and two touchdowns to Marvin Jones. Those were easily career-bests for Diggs and Jones. 
Weather won't be a factor with clear skies, no wind and temperatures in the low 50s. 

The Bengals are at least a whole another tier higher than Dallas. The Cowboys are thrilled when they beat the lowly 49ers. The Bengals - who have made the playoffs five straight years - expect to the beat the 49ers. That's a huge difference between these two. 
The Cowboys lack the experience at the skill position the Bengals have. They also don't have Cincinnati's veteran savvy. 
The Bengals have covered in nine of their last 10 road contests, while Dallas has lost straight-up eight of its last nine home games. 
The Cowboys gave up 300-yard passing games to Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins. They allowed Eli Manning to throw for three touchdowns. Dallas doesn't have the pass rush nor the secondary to defend against A.J. Green. The Cowboys aren't going to get passes air-mailed to them like they did this past Sunday with Blaine Gabbert.

The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points.
The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary.
Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. 
The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation. 

This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. 
The Texans get a big boost to their offense with left tackle Duane Brown slated to make his season debut. I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler, but steady Lamar Miller and Brown back will take the pressure off the Houston quarterback. Miller is a "B" type running back who forces the Vikings to respect the run.  
Minnesota has an outstanding defense, but so does Houston. The Texans give up the fewest passing yards per game. They've allowed only one touchdown throw all season, none in their past three games. Only four teams yield fewer yards per game than the Texans, who surrender barely 18 points per game.
The Vikings employ backup running backs and aren't likely to have their top wide receiver and spark plug, Stefon Diggs. That leaves Sam Bradford, who is still learning the offense, without a reliable target. 
This spot isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings showcased their new stadium three weeks ago against Green Bay on Sunday night, knocked off defending NFC champion Carolina on the road two weeks ago in a prove-it-to-me matchup and defeated the Giants at home this past Monday night. The Vikings have a bye after this game.This matchup for the Vikings is against a non-marquee, non-division opponent, a letdown for them after their previous three challenges and high profile games. 

I like the Cardinals to win here, but because Drew Stanton is replacing injured Carson Palmer I'm going to play Arizona on the money line rather than lay more than a field goal. 
The Cardinals have gotten off to a slow start, but remain vastly superior to San Francisco, which is a bottom-three team. Arizona will be extremely focused at 1-3 and off bad losses to the Bills and Rams. 
Stanton is a downgrade from Palmer, but he is more mobile, will be coached up by astute coach Bruce Arians and has an array of weapons, including David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and an emerging John Brown. 
Palmer's concussion is the main topic of this matchup, but the 49ers just lost the heart-and-soul of their defense with Pro Bowl linebacker NaVorro Bowman injured last week and out for the year. The 49ers aren't likely to have injured defensive lineman DeForest Buckner either. Those injuries really weaken the 49ers' run defense.
Johnson could run wild here and the threat of him should open up play-action for Stanton. The short practice week hurts the 49ers even more than the Cardinals because of these key defensive injuries and the 49ers' defense being on the field an average of eight more plays per game above the league average due to Chip Kelly's up-tempo offensive pace. 
The Cardinals also are well-coached on defense. They bring a variety of blitz packages and can take advantage of Blaine Gabbert's jittery pocket presence and lack of downfield receiving weapons. 

Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better.
So I'm locking into this point spread now as I envision it to go higher during the week when more people start playing attention.
The Vikings are a physical, disciplined team with excellent coaching and a defense that is becoming more dominant week to week, which isn't surprising given the tremendous talent at each position. The Vikings have held the Titans to 16 points, the Packers to 14 points and Panthers to 10 points. 
Since Mike Zimmer came on board - and hiring a top level staff to assist him - the Vikings have covered an amazing 75 percent of their games going 27-9 ATS! 
Minnesota is better off with the more accurate and downfield attacker Sam Bradford at quarterback than it was when Teddy Bridgewater was under center. Adrian Peterson's injury is overrated. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are fine with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata replacing Peterson. They did the job two years ago when Peterson missed the season and are better receiving targets out of the backfield than Peterson. 
The Giants have upgraded their defense, but it doesn't compare to Minnesota's. The Giants remain turnover and penalty-prone. Ben McAdoo can't compare to Zimmer as a head coach. The Giants just lost Shane Vereen for the season further weakening an already well below average ground attack. 

Look for the Steelers offense and Ben Roethlisberger to pick up now that Le'Veon Bell has returned to the lineup. Not only is Bell a top-five running back, but he also could be the team's second-best receiver behind only the incomparable Antonio Brown. 
The Chiefs have gone against weak quarterbacks the past two weeks in Brock Osweiler and erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas City only has three sacks on the season, missing its top pass rusher Justin Houston. The Chiefs' lack of cornerback depth should get exposed here as the Steelers plan on sometimes putting Bell in the slot. 
Kansas City has some underrated playmakers and expects to have Jamaal Charles for the first time this season. The Steelers have just one sack and have yielded 384, 412 and 426 yards in each of their three games with the yardage numbers going up in every game. The Eagles lit up Pittsburgh for 34 points, their season-high. The Eagles are coached by Doug Pederson, who for the previous three seasons was Andy Reid's offensive coordinator in Kansas City. The Chiefs run a similar West Coast offense to the Eagles with a lot of misdirection plays and screen passes. 
The Steelers are weak in the secondary with injuries and will be minus key linebacker Ryan Shazier, who is their top coverage linebacker. 

Let's not overthink this game. Tampa Bay is 3-15 SU, 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Buccaneers don't know how to beat a good opponent such as the Broncos and this isn't a good fundamental matchup either for them.
Yet the oddsmaker has made a short line because the Broncos are playing their second consecutive road game and Tampa Bay is off a bad loss.
So what. Not only do the Broncos have a vastly superior defensive edge, but their coaching, experience and savvy are major advantages, too. 
Jameis Winston has great potential being in his second season. But he still forces things versus aggressive defenses. The Buccaneers have a minus 6 turnover ratio and are facing the top defense in the NFL. 
Denver has not allowed more than 20 points during any of its last eight games. The Broncos are giving up an average of 17.2 points per game during this span - and they've played better offenses than the Buccaneers in this time frame: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Panthers twice, Bengals twice and Colts.
The Broncos' pass defense is first-rate. The Broncos can be attacked on the ground, but the Buccaneers are missing their best running back, Doug Martin. 
Trevor Siemian is coming off his finest game as a pro. That was last week on the road against the Bengals, who have a much better defense than the Buccaneers.  

Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. 
The Panthers actually could be better offensively than a year ago with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. Carolina is stepping way down in class defensively taking on the Falcons. The Panthers are at their best when they can bully and dominate the lines of scrimmage. They couldn't do that versus the Broncos and Vikings. They can against the finesse Falcons.
Carolina whipped the Falcons, 38-0, at home last season. But the Panthers won't forget losing 20-13 at Atlanta last season for their lone regular season defeat. This is a revenge spot for the Panthers and they catch the Falcons on a short week.
Even with the Falcons beating the defenseless Saints this past Monday, Atlanta still has covered just four of its last 15 games. Second-year head Falcons coach Dan Quinn hasn't been able to fix a leaky defense, nor upgrade a weak pass rush. 
Matt Ryan is having a big season so far and does play better in a dome setting, which this is. But the Falcons' two top wider receivers are both less than 100 percent. 

There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. 
Miami was life and death with the Browns at home this past Sunday. It took three missed field goals by the Browns, including one at the end of regulation, that allowed the Dolphins to escape with an overtime victory. 
Cincinnati is one of the best all around teams in the NFL. The Bengals protect their home-field well, too, only losing five times during their last 25 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are off a disappointing home loss, though, to the Broncos. So there is little chance that they'll take the Dolphins for granted, or look past them. Even with that loss to Denver, Cincinnati still is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 games. 
The Bengals' defense has been solid, rather than outstanding. But look for the Bengals' defensive level to be raised a notch with the return from suspension of star linebacker and defensive leader Vontaze Burfict. 
The Dolphins are weak defensively in their back seven and could be without all three of their starting linebackers. Miami is vulnerable to A.J. Green and in big trouble offensively with their top runner, Arian Foster, out again and a cluster injury problem in the offensive line. 
Miami very well could be starting third-string center Kraig Urbik. Starting center Mike Pouncey is out at least another week with a hip injury and backup Anthony Steen suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns. Also out for the Dolphins is starting tight end Jordan Cameron with a concussion. 
The combination of the Bengals' talent edge, home field advantage that is magnified by a short week and the many Miami injuries make the Bengals a solid play as they should win by double-digits. 

I believe the Bears will respond better with Brian Hoyer under center than Jay Cutler, who isn't a popular teammate. The Bears have more talent than their 0-2 record indicates.
The Bears did suffer multiple injuries on defense in their Monday night upset loss to the Eagles, but Dallas also is thin defensively due to injuries and multiple suspensions. 
The Cowboys' offense is limited by rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who hasn't proven he can scare defenses when throwing downfield. Dallas is 2-14 the past 16 times Tony Romo hasn't played. 
The Bears should play extremely hard with their season already in deep peril at 0-2 and off an embarrassing Monday night home loss. 
The Cowboys have a terrible track record as a  home favorite failing to cover 12 of the past 14 times in that role going back to the middle of 2013. 

The Eagles have looked surprisingly good so far. But look at whom they have beaten - the winless Browns and winless Bears. 
Now the Eagles are stepping way up facing one of the top seven teams in the NFL. 
Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL in touchdown passes. He can - and should - easily exploit a short-handed Eagles secondary that is minus cornerback Leodis McKelvin. The Eagles have looked better than they are defensively by facing Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer. Roethlisberger gets back his No. 2 wideout, Markus Wheaton, to go with Antonio Brown. The Steelers have two solid other wide receivers. 
Carson Wentz will be going against the best defense he's seen so far. He won't have tight end Zach Ertz either. The Eagles need to set up Wentz by churning out rushing yards. Wentz has never played from behind before. The chances are strong that happens here. The Eagles don't have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers' high-powered attack. 
The Steelers have been solid as chalk covering 10 the last 13 times when favored. 

The Dolphins are 0-2 and playing their first home game. They are in a kill spot. Except for a bad first half against New England, the Dolphins' defense has looked solid especially their front. 

The Browns are forced to go with third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown. Kessler isn't nearly ready. He looked bad during preseason - overmatched - and he's not helped by the Browns' offensive line being much inferior to the Dolphins' defensive front.

The Browns also may be without their best defensive back, Joe Haden. 

Miami's offense should pick up having gotten more in tune with offensive guru Adam Gase's system. The Dolphins step way down in class having opened on the road against Seattle and New England. Those two teams can make any team look bad. 

The Browns also aren't used to playing in South Florida kind of heat. Look for their depth-shy team to wear down in the second half.

I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money eight of the last 11 times. 
The Giants are 2-0 having eked out last-minute victories against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined four points. New York's defense is much improved from a year ago courtesy of a $200 million spending spree. But it's far from dominant and the Giants offense has yet to impress averaging 18 points a game. The Giants have a below average ground attack.
Kirk Cousins isn't Pro Bowl caliber. But he's also better than what he has shown so far this season. He has excellent receiving weapons - especially with a matchup of Jordan Reed against the Giants mediocre linebackers - and has received excellent pass protection. The Giants have a below average pass rush.
The Redskins have moved the ball they've just had trouble putting up touchdowns in the red zone. That should change with better play-calling, including not overusing fade routes that don't work. 
Josh Norman shores up the Redskins' secondary and the coaching staff finally has figured out to move Norman around. That means he's likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. Norman got inside Beckham's head last season. He's probably the cornerback that Beckham least likes to face. 

The Packers' offense will pick up at home where Aaron Rodgers and Co. are more comfortable. Green Bay opened with its first two games on the road. Jordy Nelson should be close to full strength now that we're in Week 3.
The Lions will be missing their two best defensive players, pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah and linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Detroit can put up points with its no-huddle offense. The Lions also catch a huge break in that the Packers will be without three of their top four defensive players as out are Clay Matthews, Sam Shields and Morgan Burnett. The Packers' defensive front seven could be especially thin, too, as Letroy Guion and Datone Jones are doubtful. 

Much is made of legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's great record against rookie quarterbacks. Texans coach Bill O'Brien doesn't have a shabby record either in this regard. His Texans are 6-0 when facing a first-year quarterback.
Look for that mark to reach 7-0 after Thursday's Texans-Patriots game. 
As great a coach as Bill Belichick is - and there is none better - he's extremely limited by the timing of this matchup even though the Patriots are home. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't going to be able to go leaving Belichick no choice but to toss rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett into the fire. 
Brissett isn't nearly ready to start an NFL game and Belichick and his brilliant staff don't have enough time to coach him up with this being a Thursday game. The Patriots may again be without Rob Gronkowski, their top playmaker. New England has to heavily rely on power back LeGarrette Blount, who is entering this short week having carried the ball 29 times this past Sunday. So he could get tired early. 
Perhaps Belichick could dodge this bad combination of quarterback injury/Thursday game if his team was playing a lesser foe. They aren't, though. The Texans are a playoff team with an improved offense and the NFL's third-ranked defense. The Texans lead the NFL in sacks and J.J. Watt is just now starting to come around. 
I'm not a big fan of Brock Osweiler, but he's an improvement on what the Texans have had at quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins is an upper tier wide receiver and first-round rookie Will Fuller has looked good. The Texans' offensive line showed signs of coming around in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs last Sunday. Lamar Miller is an above average back and the Patriots give up 4.6 yards per rush attempt. 
New England's pass rush is down with Rob Ninkovich suspended and Dont'a Hightower perhaps missing another game due to a knee injury.
The Texans know the Patriots extremely well despite being a non-division opponent. That's because they have a number of ex-Patriots as coaches and players, including O'Brien, Mike Vrabel and Vince Wilfork. 
The timing is wrong here for the Patriots. This is the Texans' chance to shine. 

This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans.
Wentz, though, went against maybe the worst defense in the NFL - the Browns. He was home, too. Now he makes his road debut and it's on the Monday night national stage against a much-improved, well-coached Bears defense.
Wentz has an aging offensive line and below average wide receivers. He's not likely to have his security blanket either as tight end Zach Ertz has a serious rib injury and is not likely to play. I see Wentz struggling in this spot.
Jay Cutler has physical tools, but is not an elite quarterback. We know that. But Cutler will do better this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. I rate Jeffery as the eighth-best wide receiver in the NFL. His presence is huge for Cutler's confidence and the Bears offense. The Eagles secondary can't cover him. 
Cutler is at his best when he's not facing adversity. He won't have to deal with that in this matchup. 

It's easy to think offense when talking Falcons and Raiders. The Raiders nipped the Saints, 35-34, in Week 1 for a combined 69 points while the Falcons lost 31-24 to the Buccaneers for a combined 55 points.
So it's no surprise the oddsmaker has hung a high total on this matchup. 
But there is more than meets the eye here. Both teams are coached by men with strong defensive backgrounds - Dan Quinn and Jack Del Rio. Each coach is in his second year so their defensive systems should be kicking in soon. I'm not suggesting either team's defense is first-rate - because they certainly aren't - but they will be improved. The Raiders defense is loaded with high draft picks. 
So I see this total being overadjusted based on perception and opening week results. The Raiders put up their points against the worst defense in the NFC and were playing on a fast track. 
Matt Ryan has a history of playing better at home and inside domes on a carpet surface. This is a road game for the Falcons on grass. Ryan has averaged 1.3 touchdown passes in his last 16 away contests compared to 1.7 touchdown passes at home. The Falcons play at a slower pace on the road. It's a factor why the under cashed in seven of their eight road matchups last season, including the last six. 
Ryan's two best receivers, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, both aren't 100 percent because of ankle injuries. 

Tennessee is a much improved team. The oddsmaker is a beat slow in realizing this based on the line. 
The Titans should have beaten the Vikings in Week 1. They led by 10 at halftime, outgained the Vikings and their defense didn't allow a touchdown. 
Unfortunately for the Titans they self-destructed. The Lions are noted chokers themselves. They are likely to be missing their star linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and are very weak defending tight ends having surrendered the most touchdowns last year to tight ends. Detroit yielded three tight end touchdowns to the Colts last week. The Titans have one of the best tight ends in Delaine Walker, who led all tight ends in receptions last year. 
Detroit has a huge lookahead game, too, facing the Packers in Wisconsin next Sunday. The Lions lack the maturity and overall talent to cover a margin in this spread range against an under-the-radar improved foe that has a pair of good runners, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A strong ground attack is pivotal for an underdog on the road. 

I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher.  
The Panthers hold edges in all areas against the 49ers. Not just minor edges either. The Panthers have all-pros at many positions. The 49ers have below average starters at many positions.  
The 49ers' problems are made more difficult by the scheduling dynamics. The Panthers have had nearly 1 1/2 weeks to sit around stewing about blowing a lead to the Broncos in the opening Thursday night game. Cam Newton is going to have a much easier time against the 49ers defense. 
The 49ers are fat and happy after whipping the Rams at home this past Monday night. Now they have to make a cross-country journey on a short week. Carolina is 19-7-1 in its last 27 home games. 

Biased by the Bills playing at home on a short week, oddsmakers opened Buffalo a favorite against the Jets.
Wrong. By Wednesday afternoon, the marketplace already was in full correction mode. Yes, it's difficult being the road team for a Thursday matchup. But this is just a short trip for the Jets and these division rivals know each other extremely well. So normal negatives for a Thursday road team aren't really a factor for this game. 
Rex Ryan, of course, used to coach the Jets failing to make the playoffs during his last four years from 2011-2014. The Jets won four games in Ryan's last season two years ago. New York won 10 games under Todd Bowles, Ryan's replacement, last season. 
No defense suffered more regression than the Bills last season when Ryan came on board. The Jets hold a huge head coaching edge. They also have a sharper offensive coordinator. Chan Gailey helped the Jets set team records in total yards, passing yards and completed passes last season accomplishing that with former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. 
Greg Roman is the Bills' offensive coordinator. He's one of the least innovative and most ineffective coordinators in the NFL. A work-in-progress Ravens defense held the Bills offense to 160 yards of offense and 11 first downs in a 13-7 opening week victory. Roman's ultra conservative game plan didn't help. Neither did the play of Tyrod Taylor, whose feel good story of a year ago could take some serious regression now that opposing defensive gurus - such as Bowles - have had a year of film to study him. Taylor has never played worse. 
The Bills are going to be missing key players on both sides of the ball. Fitzpatrick is at his worst when he's forcing things. That shouldn't happen here, though, with the Bills minus projected rookie starting linebackers Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland - both injured - and suspended Pro Bowl nose tackle Marcell Dareus.  
The Jets, meanwhile, welcome back Sheldon Richardson, who was suspended for just the first game. There may not be a better defensive line trio than the Jets' Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams and Richardson. Wilkerson already is a star and this looks like Williams' breakout season. 
Buffalo is going to have to deal with the Jets' dominant defensive line minus offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn, out with an ankle injury. His replacement, Cyrus Kouandjio, struggled against the Ravens. 
LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are the Bills' playmakers. McCoy has been disappointing the past couple of seasons and could be on the downside of his career while Watkins is enduring pain from his surgically repaired left foot. There's even the possibility he may not play. 
Prideful Darrelle Revis was torched by A.J. Green last week. Revis isn't in the discussion anymore for best cornerback. But he's still Darrelle Revis and he'll be going all out to redeem himself probably locked on Watkins. 

Given the low quality of these two offenses, the oddsmaker opened this total way too high. Unfortunately the marketplace realizes this and the total has been bet down since I released the play. I still like the play but at less than 43 the unit rating goes down.
San Francisco finished last in points in 2015 averaging fewer than 15 points per game. The Rams were 29th in points putting up less than 18 per game.
The Rams are a conservative, ground emphasis team that has a bottom-five passing attack. 
The total opened higher than it should have been because Chip Kelly now coaches the 49ers. But he has perhaps the worst skill position talent in the NFC. The Rams' strength is their defense, particularly their pass rush. It should have no problem keeping check-down quarterback Blaine Gabbert from making big plays.The 49ers are a work-in-progress. This is their first game under Kelly. 
Kelly may even alter his ultra up-tempo style to protect his defense knowing this is one of the few games the 49ers have a legitimate chance of winning.  

I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort. 
The oddsmaker has devalued Detroit too much because of the retirement of Calvin Johnson.
Matthew Stafford was one of the hottest quarterbacks during the second half of the season last year with the second-highest passer rating during the last eight games and a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. If not for an Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary touchdown pass the Lions would have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. 
Johnson, of course, will be missed but the Lions still have three excellent wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and a still effective Anquan Boldin. The Colts have two new cornerbacks, over-the-hill veteran Antonio Cromartie and rookie T.J. Green. The Colts aren't going to be able to stop the Lions' passing game while the Colts may not be able to keep up with their beat up offensive line. 

The Chargers will be seeing blood here in a double revenge spot. This year the Chargers are healthy in the offensive line, improved defensively and have Ken Whisenhunt back as their offensive coordinator, a huge plus for Philip Rivers. 
Keenan Allen is back, too, for the Chargers. Expect much better from Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs aren't going to be able to control Rivers especially with their top front seven defender, Justin Houston, out. The Chiefs lose a huge portion of their pass rush with Houston out. 
Kansas City also is likely to be without its best running back, Jamaal Charles. His replacements are nothing special. 
Bottom line is this is too many points for the Chiefs to be laying in a division matchup.