The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. They are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in their past six away matchups. The Dolphins are not going to the playoffs and likely will have a new coach and management team in place next season. The warm-weathered Dolphins have no interest in traveling to Buffalo where the forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with wind and a 30 percent chance of snow. That's the situational aspect. The fundamental matchup is the Bills have the superior defense and a far more mobile quarterback. Miami ranks third-from-the-bottom in both yards allowed and fewest yards gained. Ryan Tanneheill is a mediocre quarterback, who is even less effective because of a sore ankle. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Buffalo ranks No. 1 in pass defense and also gives up the second-fewest yards in the league. The Bills' defense is far more respectable than Miami's. Josh Allen provides a spark for the Bills on offense. He's already one of the best running quarterbacks having rushed for 100 yards twice this season.  The Bills outgained the Dolphins, 415-175, when the teams met in Week 13. The Dolphins won, though, 21-17. The Bills should have taken a late lead but Charles Clay dropped a throw in the end zone with 53 seconds left. 

Tampa Bay's defense has shown improvement, but not enough to overcome the Cowboys' ground attack and poor situational spot the Bucs find themselves in.  The Buccaneers' defense was on the field for 74 plays comprising 37 minutes against the highly physical Ravens on the road last Sunday. This is their second road game in a row and 11th straight week of playing. I can envision the gassed Buccaneers losing the battle of the trenches to the Cowboys offensive line and superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in run defense.  Jameis Winston doesn't often play well on the road. The Buccaneers are averaging only 16.6 points a game in their last three games. Their offense has declined as their defense has improved. The Cowboys have a top-five defense, which is made even better with the return of Sean Lee.  The Cowboys are going to be highly motivated following a 23-0 shutout loss to the Colts on the road last Sunday. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at home this season. 

It has been a disappointing season to say the least for the Panthers. That's what happens when you lose a lot of close games like Carolina has. Only twice all season have the 6-7 Panthers lost by more than a touchdown.

Physically and mentally down, the Eagles aren't ready for the Rams. LA is in a kill mood after its worst offensive performance of the season this past Sunday night. That was in cold conditions on the road against a very strong Bears defense. The Rams have multiple weapons to take advantage of the Eagles' messy cornerback situation, which has numerous injuries and is composed of second and third-stringers. Jared Goff is back in his element playing in California. Unlike last season when the Eagles outscored the Rams, 43-35, Philadelphia doesn't have the offensive capability to hang anymore with LA. The Eagles have no ground game to fall back on and Golden Tate has been a major disappointment since joining the Eagles from the Lions failing to elevate Philly's passing attack. The Eagles defense was on the field for 93 plays in their overtime loss against the Cowboys last week. They are worn down. They couldn't ask for a more dangerous offense to face on the road than the Rams. Mentally, the Eagles aren't there either with their playoff hopes realistically dashed following the loss to Dallas.

I want the Steelers going for me on national television at home after they self-destructed last week in a road loss to the Broncos despite dominating the yardage battle by having a minus four turnover ratio. 

Free of Hue Jackson, rookies Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb are playing their best ball. Mayfield is 36-for-46 passing for 474 yards with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ration in his last two games while Chubb has gained 337 yards from scrimmage and scored four TD's in the last two weeks. 

As toxic and unappealing as the Jaguars are, they still are a field goal better than the Bills. Buffalo likely gets Josh Allen back, but he's no savior but just a turnover-prone rookie. The Bills have one of the worst offenses of all-time.  Buffalo put up 41 points on the Jets in its last game and still ranks LAST in scoring at 13.7 points a game and second-to-last in yards. The Jaguars defense isn't lacking in talent. They have elite players and should be able to come up with takeaways against the punchless Bills, who rank last in passing yards. Buffalo has failed to break the 13-point barrier in seven of its 10 games. Blake Bortles remains a quarterback without a passing touch, but he does have the splendid Leonard Fournette to take the load off him and set up play-action. 

Coming off their bye, the Vikings have gotten healthier on defense and their defense is coming on ranking in the top-five during their past four games.

Now that there is film on Nick Mullens, I don't see him performing like he did last Thursday when he sparked the 49ers to an easy win against the Raiders. He is a limited player with flaws. That nationally televised game has caused this line to be inflated. The Giants are better than the Raiders and aren't tanking. This nationally televised game is a chance to give them some redemption. I expect an all out effort from the Giants. 

Neither defense can stop the other team's offense. The Packers played perhaps their finest defensive game of the season last week against the Rams yet still surrendered 29 points, which could been 36 points if Todd Gurley didn't fall down right before the goal line at the end of the game. 

Now the Packers go from West to East to face another high-powered offense and a better quarterback, Tom Brady. Look for Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel to play giving Brady his full arsenal of weapons. Until beating the Bills 25-6 on the road this past Monday, the Patriots were averaging 39.2 points in their last four games. Green Bay lacks the pass rushers, coverage linebackers and secondary to get stops against Brady. 

The Packers traded away safety Ha Ha Clinton Dixon this week for a draft choice. Dixon wasn't an All-Pro, but he was a steady force on Green Bay's defense having played all but three snaps during his five seasons. His departure leaves Kentrell Brice, who is below average, as the only experienced safety. Brady is sure to exploit this. So, too, with Gronkowski.

Aaron Rodgers can hurt a Patriots defense that is only good when cripple shooting bad quarterbacks in their weak AFC East Division. New England gave up an average of 30.2 points to the Jaguars, Colts. Lions and Chiefs. 

Baltimore has the best defense in the NFL. The Ravens rank No. 1 in scoring defense giving up 12.8 points a game and they are No. 1 in permitting the fewest yards per game at 270.8. This defense is at its best at home.  The Saints are flying high at 4-1. They've had the luxury of playing mediocre-to-horrendous defenses lighting up the Buccaneers, Falcons, Giants and Redskins. Yet they only managed 21 points against Cleveland at home. The Browns gave up 45 points to the Raiders three weeks ago and 38 points this past Sunday at home to the Chargers. Point being that the Saints are stepping way up in class facing this caliber of defense. Drew Brees is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. No argument there. But his numbers never have been as good away from the Louisiana Superdome. The Saints are going from their indoor fast track to a grass field. The Ravens' secondary has gone from solid to very good with the return of cornerback Jimmy Smith.  I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco. But he's had a strong bounce back season and has the receiving targets to take advantage of a Saints defense that has shown regression and may be without their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. He's questionable with a concussion.  The Saints were idle last week. They are a rhythm offense so I look at that as more of a negative. I project the Saints to really struggle offensively and to be out of sync trying to cope with a fierce Ravens pass rush, a strong Baltimore linebacking group headed by reliable C.J. Mosley and emerging star Za'Darius Smith and a pass defense that rates No. 2 in the league. 

Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets.  Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury.  Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line.  The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts.  I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles. 

This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat.

No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition.  San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday.  The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach.  Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14.  The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes.  Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't suddenly become Joe Montana at 35. The career journeyman has put together two monster games and suddenly he's the best quarterback in the NFC. I'm not buying it. Fitzpatrick reverts back to who he really is and that's a turnover-prone backup quarterback who has played for seven teams.  The Steelers' secondary is stronger with the return of cornerback Joe Haden from a hamstring injury. The Buccaneers entered this week ranked last in yards per rushing attempt. Their offense can not continue to put up big numbers without any type of ground attack. Look for the Steelers to keep their safeties back daring the Buccaneers to run.  Ben Roethlisberger hasn't been nearly as good on the road as at home. Le'Veon Bell remains out. So the Steelers' offense isn't as strong as perceived for this matchup especially with the Buccaneers upgrading their pass rush and having a healthy Gerald McCoy, a stud defensive tackle. McCoy has the most sacks of any tackle in the NFL during the past six seasons.  Tampa Bay has a bottom-five place-kicker in Chandler Catanzaro, but one of the better punters, Bryan Anger. 

It's no secret this figures to be a high-scoring game with Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford squaring off. The linesmaker accepts that by making this high of a total. But there are some less obvious reasons that show the total still is short and that more points will be scored than expected. This is the Patriots' first game this season inside a dome. That's a huge plus for the Over. New England opened its season going against two tough defenses, Houston and Jacksonville. The Lions' defense is a huge drop. This drop will be even bigger if the Lions are forced to play without their best pass rusher, Ezekiel Ansah, and best pass defender, cornerback Darius Slay. Both are questionable with injuries.  The Lions' secondary is much worse minus Slay. Detroit doesn't have good cover linebackers and are facing the No. 1 tight end in football, Rob Gronkowski, and a pair of running backs, James White and Rex Burkhead, who are excellent pass catchers out of the backfield. The Patriots became a lot more athletic and fast on the outside after trading for Josh Gordon.  New England also has key defensive injuries. Trey Flowers, perhaps the Patriots' most effective pass rusher, suffered a concussion last Sunday as did safety Patrick Chung. They are both questionable. Kenny Golladay has emerged as the Lions' second-best wide receiver. Stafford has three strong wide receiving targets now with Golden Tate, Golladay and Marvin Jones.  Matt Patricia is off to a rocky start as the Lions' new head coach. He is the former defensive coordinator for the Patriots, though, so he should know well where to attack New England's defense. 

The Bears are a team on the rise. Right now, though, they are a work-in-progress with a below average quarterback and caught in a bad situational spot. It only is Week 3. But the 0-2 Cardinals are in desperate straits under rookie head coach Steve Wilks. They must win this home game, or already they can forget about any playoff possibility.  Chicago is traveling a long distance on a short week after beating Seattle at home this past Monday night. Chicago is 3-8 ATS following a victory. The Bears' defense is promising, but it is not at their best yet. That won't happen until Khalil Mack and rookie Roquan Smith become 100 percent comfortable in the system.  The Cardinals have their own star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. It was Jones, not Mack, who led the NFL in sacks last season with 17. No other player had even 15 sacks. Cornerback Patrick Peterson gives Arizona the best defensive back on the field, too.  Wilks, the former defensive coordinator for Carolina, should be able to devise a sound plan going against second-year quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. The game has yet to slow down for Trubisky. He isn't any better than Sam Bradford. More mobile yes, but he lacks Bradford's veteran savvy and accuracy.  Bradford will play better once the Cardinals figure out they need to get superstar running back David Johnson in space more. Wilks has had two games now to figure that out. Johnson has been under utilized. I see Johnson being the focal point of Arizona's offense and more dangerous than in the previous two games because the Cardinals will do more to get him on the outside, including putting him in the slot, or even flanking him wide.  The Bears are going to take the Cardinals' best punch. I don't see them ready to cover more than a field goal on the road in a huge flat spot. 

It's understandable that the Rams sit on top of most people's NFL power ratings. They are strong on both sides of the ball. But I envision the Rams struggling to win this game for a number of reasons.  Sean McVay held his key players out during preseason. The Rams were able to get away with that because their opponents during the first two weeks of the regular season were the Raiders and Cardinals. Both are winless. The Chargers represent a major upgrade. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. They don't carry a strong home field advantage especially against this opponent, which also plays now in LA. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 road contests.  It is difficult for a team to blow out the Chargers because of Philip Rivers. During their last 18 games, the Chargers have lost by more than a field goal only four times. Rivers is an elite quarterback and is having another excellent season ranking in the top-four in touchdown passes, yards, completion percentage and passer rating.  The Rams have a trio of good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver on the field. He trumps them all. Rivers is especially effective when he has Allen.  Much is being made of Joey Bosa being out. Sure his absence lessens the Chargers' pass rush. But the Chargers still have Melvin Ingram and their secondary, already good, is even better this season with the addition of star rookie safety Derwin James. The Rams are missing one of their key defensive cogs, too, with linebacker Mark Barron expected to sit out a third straight game due to an Achilles injury.  The Rams' kicking game was a huge strength last season because of Greg Zuerlein. However, he's out. So the Rams are going with largely untested backup kicker, Sam Ficken.

Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Texans have the talent, huge defensive edge and home field to do more about it.  DeShaun Watson is getting less rusty and better each week. Getting deep threat Will Fuller back is huge for him. As good as Odell Beckham Jr. is, I would take DeAndre Hopkins over him.  The Texans are coming off one of their ugliest and most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing 20-17 on the road to the Titans last Sunday when Tennessee was missing its three top offensive tackles, leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker and going with backup Blaine Gabbert at quarterback.  This should mean a huge maximum effort from Houston this week. The Texans' defensive line should control a disappointing Giants offense that is averaging a meager 14 points a game. Eli Manning is well past his prime. He's been terrible and so has the revamped Giants offense line. Nobody has played well on it, including left tackle Nate Solder. Manning was sacked six times in New York's Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. J.J. Watt should be able to dominate.  Pat Shurmur has not made a difference. The Giants are as bad under him as they were during Ben McAdoo's two-year stay.  Houston's offensive line is no great shakes either. But the Texans have the superior defense and Watson is extremely mobile. Those are enough important edges to ensure the Texans beat the Giants by at least a touchdown. 

Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes.  But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game.  The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed.  Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury.  The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team.  Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. 
  

I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago.  But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games.  Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team.  Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive.  Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight.   Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3.  Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers.  The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good.  Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money.    

The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet.  The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. 

Washington's defense is improved, but it is far from top level. Andrew Luck showed me enough this past Sunday that I feel confident believing he can put up the required number of points to help this total go Over. The Colts should prove to be a strong Over team all season if Luck stays healthy with a porous defense and a passing offense reliant on Luck.  The Colts are going to be passing a lot with Luck. Many of his throws are going to be short designed to move the chains because lack of a ground attack and a vulnerable offensive line that rates well below average. T.Y. Hilton is back to being a dominant force with Luck behind center and Ryan Grant is an underrated possession receiver. He fits in well with Luck as does tight end Jack Doyle.  The Redskins are a far better offensive team with a healthy Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed. Washington actually ranked No. 3 offensively last year until Thompson was lost for the season in Week 11. They plummented to 30th once he went down. Thompson provides a big-play dimension for Alex Smith, who is coming off his finest season. That was with the Chiefs, but Smith looks like a good fit with Washington. He should have no problems moving the ball at home against what could be the least talented secondary in the NFL, an inexperienced linebacking group and no feared pass rushers.  The weather forecast is calling for wind in the 15 mph range and the chance of a drizzle. That shouldn't bother either offense, though, as both are predicated on short passing.