This is a buy low opportunity on the Bengals, who looked terrible this past Monday night scoring just 13 points against the Browns and losing by 19 points. 

The Bengals don't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers don't have Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. They also don't have a lot of incentive either with a 2-6 record and in rebuild mode. 

Cincinnati buried the Falcons, 35-17, two weeks ago. The Panthers lost to the Falcons this past Sunday ending any crazy dream for them of competing in their bogus NFC South Division. 

Joe Burrow doesn't need Chase to bury the Panthers. Burrow has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, leads the NFL in passing yards and has 17 TD passes. He still has three high quality receiving targets in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst. 

Carolina's pop gun attack operated by P.J. Walker isn't going to be able to keep up. 

The Bengals want to redeem themselves after Monday's embarrassment. This is a kill spot for them at home. The line is reasonable enough to get involved. 

I don't know why there is so much respect for the Browns in this matchup. They are not a good team. I'm not buying into the home division 'dog on Monday night, nor the Ja'Marr Chase injury as reasons not to back the Bengals.

Yes, Chase is a top-five receiver. But the Bengals are deep at wide receiver and the Browns have it worse in the injury department. Out for Cleveland is its top cornerback Denzel Ward, elite guard Wyatt Teller and emerging tight end David Njoku, who had become QB Jacoby Brissett's favorite target.

The Bengals' offensive line has gotten better. Joe Burrow has taken advantage of that to throw for 1,560 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception during Cincinnati's last five games. The Bengals have won four of those contests.

Cleveland, by contrast, has lost four in a row. Brissett is a career backup. Cleveland relies on Nick Chubb and an excellent ground attack. That's needed to make up for an anemic downfield passing attack.

The Bengals are the more balanced team with Joe Mixon on the ground and Burrow still having two excellent wide receiving targets, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Cincinnati has covered eight of its past nine road games. The Bengals also have covered seven of the past eight times when playing in Cleveland.

The Packers' defense looks far better on paper than it does on the field. Despite facing four below average quarterbacks in their last four matchups, including two backups and Zach Wilson, the Packers still are giving up 25.2 points during these past four games.

Now Green Bay draws Josh Allen and a Buffalo offense that is No. 2 in scoring at 29.3 points and first in total offense averaging 440.8 yards. The Bills are fresh, too, having been idle last week.

Safe to say the Bills will score their share of points. But can the Packers contribute to getting this total Over? Yes, they can.

Despite all the negative publicity and not having Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers has put up respectable numbers entering this week sixth in the NFL in touchdown passes with 11 and 10th in passing yards with 1,597.

Rodgers is going to have to keep up with Allen. That's especially the case if the Bills should build a lead, which is expected. The Packers won't have Allen Lazard, who has been their top wide receiver. But they do get Sammy Watkins back. Watkins won't lack motivation going against his former team. The Bills have multiple injuries in their secondary, down two studs in Tre'Davious and Micah Hyde.

Through the first seven games, this has been one of the most bizarre NFL seasons. The Giants are one reason for this being 6-1.

Saquon Barkley is back to being very good. The Giants' defense is underrated and Brian Daboll would draw my Coach of the Year vote right now.

But the Giants are no 6-1 team. They have been outgained by 105 yards on the season, have just one more first down than their opponents and have only outscored their foes by less than three points per game.

Seattle is an improved team, too. Geno Smith is playing the finest ball of his career with five multi-touchdown games. Kenneth Walker III already has moved into being the top candidate for rookie of the year honors having rushed for 353 yards the last three weeks scoring four TD's during this span.

The schedule and situation set up much better for the Seahawks. So does the Giants' injury situation.

I don't see the Giants being able to take full advantage of the Seahawks' weak defense due to a cluster injury problem at wide receiver, underrated tight end Daniel Bellinger being out along with offensive right tackle Evan Neal.

The Seahawks have one of the stronger home fields. They will get plenty of crowd support being the NFC West Division leaders.

The Giants have their bye next week. They'll need it. The Giants have had to cross the globe during the past four weeks with games in London, New York, Florida and now Seattle. That's a lot of mileage and cross-country traveling. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have been on the West Coast for their past two games.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a mediocre quarterback. But he's savvy enough to know how to distribute the ball to his weapons - and he just gained a monster weapon in Christian McCaffrey.

The Rams' defense is far from dominant, surrendering 22 or more points in four of their six games.

Look for the Rams' offense to pick up following their bye. Sean McVay should have some new wrinkles and a healthier offensive line with center Brian Allen returning.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will hurt a 49ers defense that has been dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary along with linebacker Dre Greenlaw joining Arik Armstead on the sidelines.

Tennessee wins ugly, but they are the best team in the AFC South Division and superior to the Texans at nearly every position along with having a better head coach.

If you discount their games against the Jaguars, the Texans would have two victories in their last 25 games.

The Titans should be fine with Malik Willis at quarterback replacing Ryan Tannehill. The playbook will be shrunk, but the Titans don't run an intricate offense anyways. There's is no chance now of the Titans overlooking the Texans, or coming in overconfident, now that Willis will be making his NFL debut.

The Texans have the worst talent in the NFL. They average fewer than 18 points a game and rank 31st in total defense.

Oh, yes, the Texans also have the worst run defense in the league. That's not good when facing Derrick Henry, who's back in top form rushing for more than 100 yards in each of his last three games, nor is it good facing a running quarterback in Willis.

Expect a close game here. That's usually the case with Minnesota. Of the Vikings' last 12 victories, 10 have been one possession results. 
The Cardinals are getting better offensively. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins from suspension is huge for them and Kyler Murray. 

Minnesota's 5-1 record comes with warts. The Vikings are 2-4 ATS, including 0-3 when laying more than a field goal. They have outscored their foes by just 21 points. 

The Cardinals have the speed to take advantage of the Vikings' slow cornerbacks. Minnesota ranks 27th in total defense and 28th in pass defense. 
Arizona has played better on the road than at home the past couple of years going 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS during its last 12 regular-season away games. 

I want Bill Belichick off an embarrassing 33-14 home loss to the Bears this past Monday night. I'm fine with whomever Belichick goes with at quarterback, Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones. 

The Jets are improved this season. Won't argue that point. But they've also been fortunate to face a bunch of stiffs at quarterback, drawing Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, Skylar Thompson and Bret Rypien. 

Breece Hall was carrying New York's offense. It's a real hit to the Jets' morale to lose him for the season. Hall had accounted for 681 all-purpose yards and five TD's. He was propping up Zach Wilson. The Jets have some good wide receivers, but Wilson is too inaccurate to take advantage. Belichick has a history of taking advantage of inexperienced QB's such as second-year man Wilson. 

The Patriots have owned the Jets defeating them 12 times in a row. I'll take the money line in anticipation of that streak reaching 13. 

Bill Belichick has faced many difficult challenges in his 23 years as head coach of the Patriots. Devising a defensive game plan to stop Justin Fields is not one of them.

The Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL. Fields is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. He hangs on to the ball way too long. That's one reason why he has  been sacked once in every five passing attempts. That's how bad it is. 

Chicago needs to run the ball well to have a chance. That doesn't figure to happen. The Patriots are extremely well-coached defensively. They just held Nick Chubb to a season-low 56 yards on the ground and the Browns to more than 100 yards below their rushing average last week. The Bears don't have a runner near the caliber of Chubb. 

The Patriots are likely to get back starting QB Mac Jones along with Damien Harris. The run-oriented Patriots should grind down the Bears, who rank 29th in run defense. 

The Steelers have long been a great Under team on the road. The Under has cashed in 70 percent of their last 65 away games. The Dolphins have gone Under in 11 of their last 16 overall games.

Look for these strong trends to hold up here.

Kenny Pickett has cleared concussion protocol so he'll get the start. Perhaps Pickett one day might be a decent NFL starting QB. He isn't right now with a 67 passer rating and a 1-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Miami has a strong pass rush and the Steelers have a below average offensive line. Only two teams score fewer points per game than Pittsburgh's 16.2 average.

The Steelers held Tom Brady and Tampa Bay to only 18 points last week despite missing four of their top five defensive backs. They should get most of those players back, including former Dolphin and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. He's a difference-maker. The Steelers showed against the Buccaneers that they have underrated depth in their secondary.

Tua Tagovailoa is back to start for Miami. The Steelers should be well prepared for him thanks to linebackers and special defensive assistant coach Brian Flores, who was the Dolphins head coach last year. The heady Fitzpatrick also knows his old team well.

This total is too short given the 49ers' multiple injuries on defense and also because Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two finest performances of the season and now facing a mediocre Chiefs defense.

First, though, let's discuss the Chiefs' offense. Have the Chiefs missed Tyreek Hill? No, they rank first in the NFL in scoring at 29.8 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is either the first or second-best QB in football depending on how you feel about Josh Allen. Mahomes is my choice.

Next up is Mahomes drawing the 49ers' defense at a great time. San Francisco has a cluster injury problem in its defensive line AND defensive backfield. The 49ers are down defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead. Nick Bosa is questionable with a groin injury. He won't be 100 percent if he plays. San Francisco is even more vulnerable in the secondary. Because of injuries to Emmanuel Moseley, Jimmie Ward and Charvarius Ward, the 49ers could be starting a rookie fifth-rounder and second-year fifth-rounder at the corners. Safety Talanoa Hufanga could be out, too, because of a concussion.

I see a shootout here because the 49ers are clicking on offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two best games of the season throwing for a combined 549 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions the last two weeks.

The Chiefs give up 24.8 points a game. They rank 27th in pass defense. Kansas City only has four takeaways.

It would be an extra boost for the 49ers if their starting tackles, left tackle Trent Williams and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, are able to play. There is optimism that both will be ready. Even if they aren't, the 49ers' attack is based on running and short passes.

Only once in six games have the Broncos permitted more than 17 points during regulation. They could have the best defense in the NFL, considering how bad their offense is, ranking second in fewest yards per play, third in defensive total yards and fourth in scoring defense.

Second-year QB Zach Wilson continues to show nothing holding the Jets' offense hostage.  

Russell Wilson has the credibility, but his level of play hasn't been that much higher than Zach Wilson's. The Broncos have scored just seven TD's in six games with the worst red zone offense in the league. Russell Wilson is dealing with injuries to his shoulder and groin. If he can't go, the Broncos would be forced to start game-manager Brett Rypien, which would be even better for the Under. 

The Jets' defense is much improved, ranking ninth in total defense. They just held the Packers to 10 points at Green Bay. 

Weather is a factor here as well with heavy winds expected and a chance of rain. 

The Bengals' offensive line and Joe Mixon have played much better the past two games. Their improvement is huge for Joe Burrow, who was 28-for-37 for 300 yards and 3 TD's in the Bengals' 30-26 victory against the Saints last Sunday.

Expect to see the Bengals continue their high-scoring ways as they draw an Atlanta defense that doesn't rush the passer well - just eight sacks - and could be without both of its starting cornerbacks. Casey Hayward is out with a shoulder injury. A.J. Terrell is questionable with a thigh injury. The Falcons rank 31st in pass defense.

The Falcons have been surprisingly efficient offensively scoring 26 or more points in four of their games. They rank eighth in scoring at 24.3 behind a strong ground attack that is No. 3 in the NFL. The Falcons should be able to run on the Bengals, whose run defense is down two of their most underrated players - nose tackle D.J. Reader and linebacker Logan Wilson. Cincinnati ranks 21st in run defense.

The dysfunctional Panthers draw Tampa Bay at a bad time. Todd Bowles just ripped his Buccaneers after they were upset, 20-18, by the Steelers this past Sunday. So zero chance of the Buccaneers taking the Panthers lightly.

An elite Tampa Bay defense should have little trouble stopping a Panthers attack that doesn't have a legitimate starting NFL-caliber quarterback. Take away three defensive touchdowns and the Panthers would be averaging 13.6 points per game, which would be the lowest in the league.

Carolina's money-burning ways have continued from last season. The Panthers are 1-13 SU and ATS in their last 14 games. They have lost their last three games all by double-digits.

This is an easy get-right game for the Buccaneers.

(Note that I released this game early in the week before the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. So the line has gone up. I still like the Buccaneers to absolutely bury the Panthers by more than two touchdowns so while much of the line value is gone the handicap still holds up.)

New Orleans isn't good anymore on defense. The Saints have yielded at least 20 points in every one of their games. They are giving up an average of 30 points during their last three games. Just two weeks ago, the Saints were lit up by Geno Smith in a 39-32 win.

The Cardinals have yet to reach their stride offensively. However, they have moved the ball ranking fifth in total yards. Kyler Murray should be in line for a big game. The Saints have only one interception and will be minus their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.

Murray lost Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is off the suspended list and newcomer Robbie Anderson provides a deep threat.

I'm fine with whomever the Saints start at quarterback whether it's Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston or even Taysom Hill. The key for the Saints is Alvin Kamara, he should come up big against a mediocre Cardinals defense. Star rookie wideout Chris Olave is back from injury to bolster the Saints' downfield passing attack. Tight end Juwan Johnson is an underrated pass catcher for the Saints.

Given the quality of Denver's defense and injuries to several of their own key players, including top pass rusher Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen, I believe the Chargers are priced too high so I'll be on the underdog Broncos.

Denver entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, second-fewest TD passes and had the fifth-most sacks.

Russell Wilson no longer is his prime. But he still knows how to win and is capable of playing much better as he makes the transition from Seattle to Denver. He faces a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense giving up 27.2 points a game and 6.2 yards per run. Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone are solid enough backs to take advantage of the Chargers' weak run defense, which in turn sets up Wilson to effectively pick his spots.

I'm not expecting Dak Prescott to play in this game. But that shouldn't matter. The Cowboys can upset the Eagles straight-up based on their tremendous defense, the Eagles being banged-up on their offensive line and the quiet efficiency of Cooper Rush.

Dan Quinn would be my candidate as the top defensive coordinator in the NFL this season. Dallas has held each of its first five opponents to fewer than 20 points. The Cowboys have held their last four opponents - Bengals, Giants, Commanders and Rams - to an average of 13.2 points. The Cowboys have the second-most sacks in the league. The Eagles could be down three offensive line starters due to injuries. Micah Parsons is becoming a dominant defensive force.

I think Jalen Hurts is a better fantasy quarterback than real one. Let's see how he fares against an elite defense behind a beat-up offensive line. I question his downfield accuracy.

Rush isn't fancy. He can't run like Hurts. All Rush does is win. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS in Rush's starts because he smartly plays within himself knowing he has skill position talent around with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, the most elusive of any of the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have won and covered during their past three games against the Eagles. They beat the Eagles by a combined margin of 45 points in the two games last season. Dallas also has covered in 10 of its past 11 road games.

The Cardinals can't win at home. But they are 10-1 SU and ATS during their last 11 regular season road games.

I see this as a get-right game for Kyler Murray. Seattle is giving up 30.8 points a game. The Seahawks rank in the bottom-three in many key defensive categories, including total defense, scoring defense and run defense. They surrendered 45 points to the Lions and 39 to the Saints this past Sunday despite New Orleans missing its starting QB and three top wide receivers.

Geno Smith is a prime candidate for regression. The Cardinals rank No. 5 in run defense and the Seahawks just lost their top running back, Rashaad Penny, for the season.

Each team is 2-3. But the Bengals clearly are the better team. The oddsmaker is telling you that making Cincinnati a road favorite. The Bengals have covered six of their last eight road contests.

The Bengals aren't where they were a year ago when they made the Super Bowl. But they are a level higher than the banged-up Saints. Cincinnati's offensive line is showing improvement. Joe Mixon is off his best game. The Bengals could have a much better record with better luck. All three of their losses have come on a field goal on the final play of the game.    

The Saints are likely to start Andy Dalton again. The Bengals are well familiar with their ex-teammate knowing full well his limitations. Dalton played for the Bengals from 2011-19. Cincinnati shouldn't also be taken by surprise by gadget specialist Taysom Hill after viewing tape of the Saints' wild win against the Seahawks last Sunday.     

New Orleans isn't expected to have at least two of its three best wide receivers with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry injured. Star rookie wideout Chris Olave is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. The Saints have the worst turnover margin in the league at minus eight.
Ja'Marr Chase could be in line for a huge game as Marshon Lattimore, the Saints' top cornerback, isn't expected to play. 

Rejoice time stops here for the Jets. While New York was celebrating beating the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback this past Sunday, the Packers were on their way home from London in humbling fashion after blowing a double-digit lead against the inferior Giants.

Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder the size of his ego. I like Rodgers that way. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with all but one of those victories coming by at least 10 points. How did Rodgers fare in these nine games? Try a 24-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Jets are fat and happy having stopped a 12-game division losing streak. They are 3-2 with a miracle win against the less-than-bright Browns, another come from behind victory against the 1-4 Steelers and receiving an early Christmas gift of drawing an unprepared and ill-equipped Skylar Thompson when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early in the Dolphins game.

Yeah the Jets are improved. They have some promising young players. But don't get carried away. The underachieving Packers are still at least two - if not three - levels higher than the Jets and are playing at home in circle-the-wagons mode. Green Bay is 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS during its last 15 home games.

Matchup-wise, the Packers can run on the Jets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. If the Jets load the box - which I expect them to do - Rodgers has enough reliable pass catching targets and MVP ability left to burn the Jets.

Green Bay is healthy on defense. They have the pass rushers with Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith to take advantage of the Jets' vulnerable offensive tackle situation, which is a fourth-string option at left tackle and a second-stringer at right tackle. Zach Wilson has yet to impress me. He's made 15 NFL starts. He's committed 14 turnovers and been sacked 47 times.

I don't expect the Packers to be flat, or to be bothered by jet lag. The Saints and Vikings played in London two weeks ago. Both won last week without the benefit of taking their bye week.

This is your classic buy low spot on the Packers.

It's been a week and I still haven't recovered from the stench of last Thursday night's NFL game when the Colts beat the Broncos, 12-9, in overtime. I wouldn't blame Roger Goodell - or put it past him - if he secretly made sure there is more offense in this Thursday game. Amazon Prime Video must have real buyer's remorse having shelled out a reported $1.2 billion per year to acquire the Thursday night broadcasts.

Now we get what looks like another stinker, the Commanders against the Bears. Tough to get involved with a side here. I'll hold my nose and go Over this total. It's an extremely low number given how the game has become so unfairly skewed toward the offense. Fortunately for viewing purposes, Jerome Boger and his inept crew of excessive flag throwers won't be the officiating crew here. They'll be doing their part to ruin the Jaguars-Colts game.

Carson Wentz has thrown the second-highest amount of passes. Justin Fields has thrown the fewest passes of any quarterback who has started more than two games. Look for Wentz to throw fewer passes and for Fields to throw more passes. That will make both of them more effective.

Wentz actually looked very good the first two weeks of the season when he went against the Jaguars and Lions. The Commanders have averaged only 11.6 points during their last three games going against better defenses in the Eagles, Cowboys and Titans. The Bears rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense and 22nd in defensive total yards. That's going against three of five offenses that were rendered weak at the time because of the situation: 49ers going with inexperienced Trey Lance on the road in a monsoon, Texans and Giants, who had both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor injured against Chicago.

Wentz is a cripple shooter. He's not good against elite defenses. However, he's fully capable of putting up good numbers against weak-to-mediocre defenses especially when given the benefit of a decent running attack. Power back Brian Robinson has returned to the Commanders' lineup bolstering their rushing balance. Wentz has 10 TD passes. Only four QB's have thrown more.

Keep in mind the bar is set low with this short total.

Cooper Kupp has 49 receptions. Justin Fields has 49 pass completions. Maybe Fields never will be a good enough downfield passer to cut it in the NFL. But Chicago needs to find that out. It's been five weeks now. The Bears' offensive line is not as terrible as perceived. It's actually held up well. The Bears finally started to open things up more after falling behind 21-3 to the Vikings on the road last Sunday. Chicago actually went in front, 22-21, before losing on a Minnesota touchdown with 2:26 left. Fields nearly engineered a successful late drive that could have tied the game, but his receiver was stripped of the ball at Minnesota's 39-yard line following a 15-yard completion.

That come-from-behind effort, though, should boost the Bears' confidence in Fields and the offense. Fields threw for a season-high 208 yards against the Vikings, completed 71.4 percent of his throws and had a passer rating of 118.8. The Commanders rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.6 points a game. They have just one takeaway.

Once again, the bar is set extremely low on this total. So I'm going Over.

No Tyreek Hill, no problem. The Chiefs' offense is just as deadly this season without Hill due to the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and stronger wide receiving and running back depth.

The Raiders have three sacks and three takeaways in four games. Aside from Maxx Crosby, they don't have any big-play defenders. They certainly don't have enough depth in the defensive backfield to effectively slow down the many receiving targets that Mahomes has.

The Chiefs are averaging 37.4 points during the eight games Mahomes has played against the Raiders. This includes last season when the Chiefs scored a combined 89 points versus Las Vegas.

Las Vegas, though, will do its share, too, to make sure this total goes Over. Derek Carr has never had a wide receiver as good as Davonte Adams. The Raiders' offensive line has shown positive signs of coming around and Josh Jacobs is off his finest game of the season. He may be the best running back on the field. Daniel Carlson may be the second-best kicker in the NFL next to Justin Tucker.

Kansas City just gave up 31 points, 373 passing yards and 27 first downs to the Buccaneers last week. Tampa Bay entered that game averaging just 17 points in its first three games.

This has been an Over series with the last four going above the total.

After starting slow against the Steelers and Cowboys, the Bengals have gotten back on track rolling past the Jets and Dolphins. 

The Ravens have yet to get on track. Something isn't right with them. They've blown 21 and 17-point leads at home to the Dolphins and Bills. Baltimore is down to its third-string offensive left tackle and its defense has struggled under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. 

Cincinnati's offensive line has been sharper in protecting Joe Burrow during the past two weeks. During this span, Burrow has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bengals own a huge wide receiving edge.

The Bengals gained a lot of confidence from whipping the Ravens twice last season, 41-17 and 41-21. 

The Bengals are on extra rest having played on Thursday during Week 4. They are 6-0 ATS as a road 'dog the past six times and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 AFC games. 

The Falcons are the last unbeaten point spread team in the NFL. They won't be after Sunday. I envision the Buccaneers putting together their first complete game of the season. If they do, the Falcons won't stand a chance.

Tampa Bay held the Cowboys, Saints and Packers to a combined 27 points. That's an average of nine points. The Buccaneers are going to be in an ornery mood after losing, 41-31, at home to the Chiefs. No weather distractions this week for the Buccaneers.

Take away Cordarrelle Patterson and the Falcons are the easiest offense the Buccaneers have faced so far. Marcus Mariota is averaging just 10 completed passes during his last two games. The Falcons lack the downfield passing attack to come from behind if a backdoor cover is needed. Kyle Pitts is the Falcons' top weapon - and he's underutilized.

Getting healthier on the offensive line and Mike Evans back from suspension was a big boost for Tampa Bay's offense last Sunday. The Buccaneers should be in better shape at wide receiver this week, too, giving Tom Brady more options. The Falcons rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.3 points and 25th in total defense allowing 386.3 yards per game.

This is the Buccaneers' get-right game.

The Saints return home from London in circle-the-wagons mode on a three-game losing streak. Andy Dalton is likely to start again, but Alvin Kamara is back to do the heavy lifting, which should ease Dalton's burden. 

The Seahawks have the second-worst defense in the league behind only the Lions. Kamara should be in line for a huge game against a Seattle defense yielding 5.4 yards per run and five all-purpose TD's. 

Geno Smith has played better than expected - so far. Keep in mind that his one superstar performance was against the Lions. The Seahawks were crushed when they stepped up in competition against the 49ers. Their other games were against the Broncos, Falcons and Lions.

New Orleans gives up the fifth-lowest completion rate and ranks in the top 10 in fewest yards per pass attempt. I see Smith returning to his game-manger, turnover-prone ways that have marked his career. 

I'm going to pounce on going Over 40 1/2 in the Giants-Packers London game with the belief that either Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor will be able to play for the Giants.

If that's the case, this total is way too low.

The Packers are getting better on offense each week as their offensive line rounds into shape and Aaron Rodgers gets more in sync with his new rookie wide receivers. Rodgers has Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon - perhaps the best running back tandem in the league - at his disposal along with several veteran receivers.

Green Bay is going to have to contend with a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, who has 463 rushing yards. That's more than 21 NFL teams. The Packers allowed the Patriots to average 5.1 rushing yards per carry on 33 attempts last week.

The defenses of these two teams are way ahead of their offenses making this total too high.

The Colts are last in scoring at 14.3 points a game. Indy's offensive line has performed below expectations and Matt Ryan is off to a slow start. Ryan has committed seven turnovers in four starts and been sacked 15 times. The Broncos have a top-six defense. Patrick Surtain has emerged as a lock-down cornerback.

Making matters potentially worse for the Colts is an ankle injury suffered by Jonathan Taylor this past Sunday. Even if he manages to play, Taylor won't be 100 percent especially on a short week.

Denver is averaging only 16.5 points. Russell Wilson also is off to a slow beginning with his new team. The Broncos just lost their best running back, Javonte Williams, to a season-ending knee injury. That means a heavy dose of mediocre Melvin Gordon, who has a fumbling problem. Gordon has lost the ball in five of his last 44 carries.

The Colts rank sixth in total defense and rush defense.

The Buccaneers have given up the fewest points in the league. Tom Brady is off to a slow start. The Chiefs are off a loss to the Colts in which they were held to 17 points.

So I get why this total is low given the caliber of these offenses.

I just find it too low.

The Chiefs had scored 24 or more points in 10 straight games until last week's loss to the Colts. The Chiefs were hurt offensively by some questionable official's calls and missed kicks from a backup kicker. They have since switched kickers with Harrison Butker still not ready.

The Buccaneers have an outstanding defense. No argument there. But it's not as dominant as the numbers show. Tampa Bay's opponents were the Cowboys, who are thin at wide receiver and in the offensive line, turnover-prone and banged-up Jameis Winston and the Saints and the ground-oriented Packers, who are in wide receiver development.

Kansas City doesn't have superstar Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs, though, have better wide receiver and running back depth than they've had before to compensate. They are two levels higher than any offense the Buccaneers have faced so far this season.

The Buccaneers are not facing an elite defense taking on the Chiefs. Brady should get back into rhythm with the Buccaneers getting healthier in the offensive line and at wide receiver. Mike Evans coming off suspension is huge.

The Raiders are 0-3. But they could be 3-0. The Broncos are 2-1, but could be 0-3. 

So don't be too surprised that Las Vegas is favored against Denver. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks and defeated the winless Texans and disappointing 49ers by a combined eight points needing fourth quarter comebacks. 

The Raiders have yet to play a complete game. Las Vegas goes on the road to meet the Chiefs next week. So this clearly is a circle-the-wagons game for them.

Denver's defense has put up some outstanding statistics. The quarterbacks the Broncos have faced are Geno Smith, Davis Mills and a rusty Jimmy Garoppolo. Derek Carr is a cut above those quarterbacks and has two elite receiving weapons to challenge a Denver secondary that is minus star safety Justin Simmons with Davante Adams and Darren Waller.

Russell Wilson has had only one good drive in three games for the Seahawks. He has just two TD passes and 22 yards rushing. He sure looks like he has regressed. Maxx Crosby is one of the better pass rushers in the league. Las Vegas also expects to get back from injury a pair of underrated defenders, linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Tre'von Moehrig. 

The Raiders have owned the Broncos winning and covering six of the last seven in the series. 

The Seahawks blasted the Lions, 51-29, in Week 17 last season. Rashaad Penny rushed for 170 yards in that game.

Since then the Seahawks have gotten worse and the Lions have improved. Detroit's improvement has come on offense. Defensively the Lions remain inept. They are last in scoring defense surrendering 31 points a game and 29th in total defense. They only have two takeaways and just lost Tracy Walker for the season with an Achilles tendon injury. He was one of the Lions' few good players on defense and a team captain.

The Seahawks have enough playmakers around Geno Smith to produce points against such a weak defense. Seattle also has enough defense to keep this close - if not pull the upset - when you take away the Lions' two best skill position players plus their kicker. That's the case here. D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Austin Seibert are all out.

I like the Lions in an underdog role. But laying points is not something I want to do with Detroit especially when the team is minus the dynamic Swift and reliable go-to receiver St. Brown.

Both teams have surprised on offense. The Browns are averaging 28.3 points, rank fifth in total yards and have the NFL's leading rusher, Nick Chubb. 

The Falcons are averaging 26.7 points. They've faced a pair of respectable defenses, too, in the Rams and Saints. 

A key is each team's quarterback has performed better than many expected. Jacoby Brissett has completed 74 percent of his throws with three TD passes during his last two games. Marcus Mariota has completed 63.3 percent of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, on the season. He's given the Falcons a running dimension they haven't had at quarterback during the long Matt Ryan era. 

The Falcons have three playmakers - Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Browns permitted washed-up Joe Flacco to have his best game in a decade two weeks ago allowing him to throw for 307 yards and four TD passes. The Browns lost linebacker Anthony Walker to a season-ending injury last week and won't have premier pass rusher Myles Garrett, who was involved in a car accident this week. 

The Browns' dominant offensive line should control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons. Atlanta yields 27 points a game and ranks 26th in total defense. 

The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league.

Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line?

The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers.

I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense.

Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season.

Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow.

Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game.

It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries.

The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays.

The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games.

The oddsmaker has overreacted to no Dak Prescott with this low of a total. 

Cooper Rush is a serviceable backup quarterback. He's not a stiff. He has skill position talent to rely on. Ezekiel Elliott looks much better than he did last season. Tony Pollard is a home run threat and drawing more playing time. The Cowboys also get back Michael Gallup to upgrade their wide receiving corps. The Giants aren't likely to have Leonard Williams, their best defensive lineman. 

The Giants are far more credible on offense under Brian Daboll. New York's offensive line has improved and Saquan Barkley is running the best he has since his rookie season, finally free of injuries. Barkley entered Week 3 leading the NFL in rushing yards.

It doesn't take much in today's NFL, with its rules skewed toward offense, to get above a total less than 40. 

Right now the Broncos aren't very good. They lost to the Seahawks and had to struggle at home to get past the Texans. Russell Wilson hasn't looked any better than he did last season when he had an off-season failing to meet his lofty standards of past seasons. New Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett's decision making has come under serious scrutiny. Discipline has slipped, too, with the Broncos committing 25 penalties.

The 49ers may have caught an unintended break with Trey Lance suffering a season-ending broken ankle. That's bad for Lance and the 49ers long-term. However, short-term they now will have more experienced, reliable and accurate passing with veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. It's easy to knock Garoppolo, who certainly doesn't have Lance's mobility and big-play ability, but San Francisco is 31-14 in his starts. That's a 69 percent winning percentage.

Denver's secondary already has taken a massive hit with safety Justin Simmons out with a thigh injury and Patrick Surtain questionable with a shoulder injury. The Broncos are stepping way up in class after going against the pop-gun attacks of the Seahawks and Texans. It's an added plus for the 49ers if George Kittle is ready to make his season debut as expected He's arguably the best all around tight end in football.

San Francisco has an elite defense. It held the Bears and Seahawks each to fewer than 220 yards. The 49ers know Wilson well from having played him twice each year in the NFC West Division for 10 years. The Broncos haven't meshed yet with their new quarterback by dropping passes, committing way too many penalties and failing to score TD's in the red zone

Emerging skill position talent, above average offensive line and a still-terrible defense make the Lions an attractive Over team. The Lions have sailed well above the total in each of their last four games, including both games this season.

I see that trend continuing against the Vikings, whose offense is unshackled with a coaching switch from old school Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell.

The Lions are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 35.5 points. Detroit's already good offensive line gets back center Frank Ragnow. The Vikings have aging and slow cornerbacks. They also are likely to be minus star safety Harrison Smith, who suffered a concussion this past Monday.

The Vikings should feast at home versus a bottom-three Lions defense that is allowing 32.5 points and 425.5 yards per game.

I have no doubt the Colts will be up for this game. They have to be sitting 0-2. But Indy can't compete offensively with the Chiefs. 

Patrick Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill. But this loss has been more than offset with better receiving depth both at wide receiver and at running back along with an improved offensive line. Gus Bradley is the Colts' new defensive coordinator. He's an overrated defensive coordinator, whose style is a conservative Cover 3 defense. Mahomes picks apart this style of coverage. He's thrown for 966 yards with a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past three times he's gone against a Bradley defense. 

Matt Ryan can't keep up with this. Ryan isn't Tom Brady. He's an old 37. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, Ryan has limited weaponry. He's looked terrible so far. Ryan's been sacked seven times, thrown four interceptions and fumbled five times in his two starts with Indy. 

The Chiefs are on an extra rest, too, having played their Week 2 game on a Thursday. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches with extra prep time. 

I've been very impressed with Jalen Hurts this season. But Carson Wentz hasn't been bad either. Wentz is tied for the TD passing lead with seven and ranks No. 2 in passing yards with 650. He's the Commanders' best quarterback in at least four years.

Washington has set Wentz up for success with a sturdy offensive line and four underrated receiving targets - Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas.

The Commanders' defense isn't likely to reach their top-five status of 2020, but it should be better than last season.

But a big key here is the spot. The Eagles are off an impressive Monday night beatdown of the Vikings. Now they're traveling on a short week while laying a touchdown against a division rival.

Philadelphia is not a good road team either from a point spread perspective going 5-12 ATS in its past 17 away contests. The Eagles also have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 September games. The underdog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS during the last four meetings.

The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now.

But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago.

Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up.

The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense.

Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40.

I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range.

As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett.

The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game.

The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday.

Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era.

Both teams look improved. But there's a class difference in the trenches that make the Eagles the superior team. I also like Jalen Hurts better than Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia has home field advantage, too. 

Hurts is close to being a top-10 quarterback - if he isn't already - given his mobility and addition of A.J. Brown to go with two speedy running backs, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, one of the better tight ends in the league. The Eagles may have the best offensive line in football. 

The Vikings have Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook to prop up glorified game manager Cousins. Minnesota's offensive line, though, is not nearly the caliber of the Eagles' offensive line.

The Eagles also upgraded their defense, drafting stud defensive tackle Jordan Davis and signing Haason Reddick, James Bradberry and Kyzir White. The Lions had trouble running last week when Davis was on the field. Reddick is one of the top pass rushers and Bradberry an elite cornerback. 

The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with.

Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups.

The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears.

The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here.

Stop worrying about Trey Lance. He'll be fine playing at home without having to deal with a hostile Chicago crowd playing in monsoon-type conditions. He has a solid offensive line, an ace play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and a real weapon with versatile Deebo Samuel. It's an added bonus if George Kittle can play.

Instead fixate on Seattle's situation. The Seahawks are off a huge home Monday night upset win of Denver and Russell Wilson. Even playing their division rivals, the Seahawks are in a dreadful spot traveling on a short week following that emotional victory.

The Seahawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory - and that was with Wilson. Now their quarterback is Geno Smith. One game doesn't change the fact that Smith is a game-manager with a propensity for turnovers.

Smith isn't helped playing behind one of the worst and most inexperienced offensive lines in the league. The 49ers hold a monster edge in the trenches with their defensive line. The Seahawks were able to protect their two rookie offensive tackles by throwing only 17 times against the Broncos. That's not likely to happen again. Nick Bosa is right there with Aaron Donald as the most disruptive defensive lineman in the NFC.

The 49ers are going to be up for this game after blowing a 10-0 lead against the Bears. They will play with urgency. San Francisco has covered its last four home contests.

Lance's task is made easier by the Seahawks losing their best defensive and most versatile player, safety Jamal Adams.

Despite being plus 5 in turnover ratio, the Steelers needed overtime to get past the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow. And the only reason the Steelers even managed to win that game was because the Bengals lost their deep snapper in the second half, which caused stud kicker Evan McPherson to get an extra point blocked and miss an easy field goal.

The Steelers did lose T.J. Watt in that game. Watt is the NFL's reigning defensive player of the year, a difference-maker.

The Patriots are a work-in-progress, too. But at 0-1, I see them bouncing back to beat the Steelers. I trust Bill Belichick in this spot. He easily can put together a game plan against Mitch Trubisky, a bad Steelers offensive line and banged-up workhorse running back Najee Harris, who is dealing with a foot injury.

The Steelers were forced to roll out on nearly every pass play because their offensive line can't pass block. Trubisky missed a number of throws like he's done in past performances. The Patriots had three sacks in their loss to the Dolphins. New England held Miami to 13 points on offense as one Dolphins touchdown came on defense.

Pittsburgh has failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a point spread cover.

Carson Wentz lit up a bad Jacksonville defense last Sunday. He's capable of doing that given the underrated receiving weapons he has to go with Terry McLaurin in Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, a healthy Logan Thomas and both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic out of the backfield.

The Lions' defense is as bad as Jacksonville's defense, if not worse. Detroit is giving up an average of 39.6 points in its last three games going back to last season.

Detroit has firepower, though. Jared Goff plays his best when he's home on a fast indoor track and the conditions are pristine. That's the case here.

The Commanders yielded 22 points to the inefficient Jaguars last week, who continually made mistakes on offense. The Commanders didn't really stop the Jaguars. The Jaguars stopped themselves. Washington remains without its best interior defensive player with Chase Young out.

These teams have as many defensive stars as they do offensive stars. It's the offensive stars and offensive linemen, though, that are the banged-up parts of these teams, though.

The Buccaneers traditionally struggle against New Orleans. The last time these teams met, the Saints shut out the Buccaneers, 9-0. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in its last four regular-season meetings against New Orleans. Tom Brady turned the ball over 10 times and was sacked 13 times during these four games.

Brady could be in for another long day as the Buccaneers have cluster injury problems in the offensive line and wide receiver. Every one of Tampa Bay's wideouts is dealing with some sort of injury. Chris Godwin is unlikely to play. The Bucs are forced to start two inexperienced offensive line starters, too, because of injuries. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs is Tampa Bay's only reliable offensive lineman.

The Saints have offensive line issues, too. Their offensive line has regressed because of injuries and defections. Alvin Kamara also is dealing with sore ribs.

Both teams have defensive coaches now as their head coach. The Saints go from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen, who was either defensive coordinator or interim head coach during the past four games between the two teams, while Todd Bowles is the Buccaneers head coach replacing Bruce Arians. Payton and Arians were each well-respected for their offensive acumen. Allen and Bowles are sharp, too, - but on the defensive side.

Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent.

The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now.

The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line.

Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out.

The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs.

Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks.

Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too.

I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time.

The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting.

The Colts have failed to cover in their last seven season-openers. Expect that streak to continue. Division underdogs in Week 1 traditionally fare well. That should be the case here especially given Indy's history. Going back to 2014, the Colts are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS opening week. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS mark under Frank Reich.

Indy didn't look good during preseason. The Colts are making the transition to a new QB - Matt Ryan. And his best days are behind him. Ryan also has a below average wide receiving corps with Michael Pittman the only reliable wideout. The Colts also are minus a couple of key defensive pieces. Star linebacker Darius Leonard is hurt and Matt Eberflus, their ace defensive coordinator, is gone, taking over as the Bears' head coach.

The Texans aren't the worst team in the NFL. They actually are better than perceived on the offensive line, quarterback where Davis Mills flashed last season and at running back where promising Dameon Pierce has taken the No. 1 role. Pep Hamilton is one of the more underrated offensive coordinators. The Texans held their last four opponents to an average of 24 points, a below average figure but not disastrous. Houston went 3-0 in preseason while holding their opponents to an average of 11 points a game.

The Texans won't lack motivation in Love Smith's debut as their head coach. The Colts swept the Texans last season by a combined score of 62-3. Indy hadn't defeated the Texans by more than a touchdown during the previous six meetings before last year.

Later in the season this point spread will be considered a gift to the 49ers. I already consider it way off. The 49ers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bears have the worst talent in the league.

Trey Lance and Justin Fields are similar. Both are in their second NFL-season. Both have tremendous mobility and big arms. But Lance is surrounded by superior talent both offensively and defensively.

The Bears had a minus-96 point differential last season. They could be even worse this year. Fields is inexperienced and not accurate. But he's not even among the many major problems the Bears have, which include perhaps the worst offensive line in the league, multiple holes on defense and a well-below average pass receiving group.

Lance won't be asked to do too much because the 49ers should have no problem pounding the Bears on the ground thus setting up Lance to pick his passing spots. San Francisco was seventh in rushing last season. The Bears ranked in the bottom-10 in run defense.

The total is large here, but not big enough given the matchup. 

Buffalo's defense rates among the best going by last year's statistics. Truth be told, though, it's not as good as it's ranking, especially with star cornerback Tre'Davious White out with a knee injury. The Bills fatten their defensive numbers by steamrolling easy competition. Buffalo played only two playoff teams during the regular season - the Patriots and Chiefs before they got rolling. 

The Bills are really going to miss White in trying to deal with Cooper Kupp, who had maybe the finest receiving season in NFL history with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rams upgraded their No. 2 wideout position, too, signing Allen Robinson. Also Cam Akers, LA's most talented running back, has proclaimed himself healthy. The Rams finished in the top-nine in scoring and yards last season. They should do even better this season. 

I'm more sold on the Bills' offense compared to their defense. Buffalo's passing attack is a fine oiled machine right now. Josh Allen is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Buffalo scored the third-most points in the NFL last season. The Bills could be even more dangerous with the emergence of speedster Isaiah McKenzie in the slot and the pass-catching talents out of the backfield of rookie James Cook to go with elite wideout Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox. 

The Rams may have the top cornerback in the league, Jalen Ramsey. But their strength is star power not depth. They don't have enough quality players in the secondary to stay up with all of Allen's targets. Allen also neutralizes Aaron Donald because of his tremendous mobility. The two most explosive offenses the Rams faced during their last 11 games were the Packers and Buccaneers. Green Bay scored 36 points. Tampa Bay produced 27 points. 

Another plus for the Over is the game being played on a fast track at SoFi Stadium, which has artificial turf. This is the first game of the season. It's nationally televised. The league wants points to be scored that's why rules have been skewed to favor offense. I can't imagine the NFL wants its opening showcase game to be littered with a lot of offensive holding penalties either. 

Given the high quality of quarterbacks, wide receivers and offensive coaching acumen and aggressiveness of Sean McVay and Zac Taylor, I easily envision at least 50 points being scored in this Super Bowl just like eight of the last 13 Super Bowls.

Defenses don't have a chance anymore against great offenses in today's modern game. The NFL has manipulated the rules so much that quarterbacks and wide receivers get way too much protection.

Teamed up for the first time under offensive guru McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp produced their finest seasons. The Bengals ranked 26th in pass defense. The Rams are going to get their points here. LA is back to being balanced with the return of Cam Akers to go with inside runner Sony MIchel.

Only Tom Brady threw more TD passes than Stafford. Kupp had one of the greatest receiving years in NFL history leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's. Kupp hasn't been contained all season.

Burrow and his trio of outstanding receivers plus Joe Mixon, the NFL's third-leading rusher, trump LA's defense. The Rams have a pair of defensive studs in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. However, the Rams are below par at linebacker and safety. This is where they are really going to miss underrated injured safety Jordan Fuller, who was the Rams' captain, defensive signal-caller and leading tackler.

The Rams are most vulnerable in the middle of the field. This is where Burrow likes to attack with short passes to his trio of star wideouts Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, who has come on to produce five 100-yard receiving games in his last nine games. The threat of Mixon helps keep LA's strong pass rush neutralized.

Neither McVay nor Taylor coach scared. They aren't afraid to go for it on fourth down. This is the right way to coach when both team's have outstanding offenses and the rules are skewed almost completely in favor of the offense.

Here are my Super Bowl props: 

I don't trust the Rams' offense against the 49ers. San Francisco held LA to an average of 17 points and 271.5 yards in the team's two meetings this season. The Rams have been held to an average of 17.5 points during their last four games against San Francisco.

Matthew Stafford had a great season with 41 TD passes. But Stafford also tied Trevor Lawrence for the most interceptions with 17. The 49ers can generate a strong pass rush without having to blitz. This is huge because Stafford is strong against blitzes. Nick Bosa can be just as disruptive to an offense as Aaron Donald is for the Rams.

Keep an eye on the status of each team's starting offensive left tackles. The 49ers' Trent Williams was on crutches following the 49ers' win against the Packers last week, while the Rams' Andrew Whitworth missed his team's victory against the Buccaneers because of an ankle injury.

The 49ers ranked No. 3 in defensive total yards. They were in the top seven against both the run and pass.

The Rams' pass rush has come on strong with Von Miller making an impact. Jalen Ramsey gives the Rams the best defensive back. The 49ers are heavily ground-oriented so that is going to eat clock.

I don't trust Jimmy Garoppolo. He's an extremely limited quarterback.

So Under is the best course of action.

Joe Burrow has elevated the Bengals. Cincinnati is going to be a serious playoff contender for years if Burrow stays in one piece. But this isn't Cincinnati's time. Kansas City is the elite team in the NFL and the Chiefs are peaking at the right time. They also are home.

The Bengals have too many holes, including a 26th-ranked secondary, to keep Patrick Mahomes and his bevy of weapons from scoring touchdowns. Mahomes has regained his status as the best QB in football. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in each of their last seven games. During their two playoff games against the Steelers and Bills, the Chiefs averaged 42 points and 515 yards.

The Bengals' defense isn't nearly at the level of Buffalo's top-ranked unit.

This puts tremendous pressure on Burrow to keep up with Mahomes. Burrow has the talent, poise and athleticism to do this. He doesn't have the offensive line, though. The Bengals surrendered nine sacks to the Titans yet still came away with a playoff victory last week because of Ryan Tannehill's three interceptions. Mahomes has committed one turnover during his last five games.

Until giving up 36 points to the Bills in last week's overtime shootout, the Chiefs had permitted the fewest points per game since Week 8 allowing 16.1 points.

Kansas City has won 10 of its last 11 games with the lone defeat occurring to the Bengals in Cincinnati. Kansas City is 9-2 at home this season with an average winning margin of 14.2 points.

I'm not going to step in against the Chiefs.

Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night?

I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion.

Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games.

The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.

The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble.

The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.

This is one of the Packers' strongest offenses ever thanks to Aaron Rodgers, who during his last 6 1/2 games threw for 1,929 yards with a 20-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rodgers has a deep wide receiving corps headed by Davante Adams, a top three overall wide receiver, and one of the best running back combos in the league, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Cold weather isn't going to derail this attack especially when wind won't be a major factor. The 49ers don't have the backend up to hang with all of Rogers' targets. Green Bay could have nearly its entire starting offensive line intact, too, for the first time this season. San Francisco is hoping to have back its best two defenders, pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Both were injured against the Cowboys last week. It's just an added bonus for Green Bay if either of those players is out.

The cold elements shouldn't bother the 49ers either because their attack is predicated on running and Jimmy Garoppolo playing point guard distributing short passes to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom are outstanding at gaining yards after the catch. Samuel has the most unique skill set in the NFL with his pass catching skills, rushing talents and even the ability to pass.

The Packers could get back cornerback Jaire Alexander and pass rusher Za'Darius Smith. Even if those two return, they aren't likely to play the entire game and their talents are more suited to defend against the pass rather than the run. The physical 49ers should control the trenches when running.

Green Bay's defense slipped noticeably as the season wore on. If you throw out holding the Vikings to just 10 points when Sean Mannion was Minnesota's QB, the Packers have surrendered an average of 30.1 points during their last six games.

Nice season for the Bengals. But it ends in Nashville. The Titans have the right style, playoff experience and improved defense to beat the Bengals by more than a field goal.

Cincinnati ended up in a death struggle to get past the Raiders at home last week finishing that game down three defensive linemen. The Bengals definitely won't have defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi.

These current Bengals have never played in a postseason road game. Tennessee, 7-2 at home this season, is playoff-tested and rested having had a first-round bye. Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU and ATS following a bye beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points per game.

The extra time should allow Derrick Henry to make his return from a foot injury. Cincinnati has permitted 100 yards rushing in five of its past six games. The Titans averaged 29.1 points a game during Henry's last seven games before he was injured. Ryan Tannehill is a much better QB when defenses have to key on Henry.

The Titans' bruising, ball-control style keeps Joe Burrow off the field. But it's not just that. The Titans were one of the most improved defenses during the last 11 games giving up 17.5 points and 300.3 yards per game during this stretch. They have a number of underrated pass rushers and athletic linebackers. I doubt the Bengals' youthful offensive line will hold up at the line of scrimmage to the detriment of Burrow.

The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. 
Arizona is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals' defense has been below par the second half of the season. Their secondary has given up 14 TD passes with just one interception during the last five games. 

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. 

This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. 

McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. 

The Chiefs' explosive offense is back on track averaging 35.4 points during their last five games. This includes producing 36 points against the Steelers in Week 16. The Chiefs scored on each of their first four possessions, piling up 381 total yards of offense. Patrick Mahomes threw for 258 yards and 3 TD's despite not having Travis Kelce. 

Pittsburgh has surrendered at least 36 points in four of its last five road games. 

Safe to say, the Chiefs are going to get their share of points here. 

But what about the Steelers? Can Pittsburgh contribute its share of points? 

I believe the Steelers can. The Chiefs' run defense has become leaky giving up an average of 143.2 yards rushing in their last four games. If Najee Harris is effective on the ground, the Steelers' passing attack can be effective off play-action. 

If the Chiefs load up to stop the run by committing their safeties, Ben Roethlisberger will attack their man coverage. Roethlisberger won't be shy about passing in what likely is his final game. 

I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily.

Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes.

The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury.

Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower.

The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line.

The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog.

It's easy to remember the Raiders' last game. That being a memorable, 35-32, home overtime victory against the Chargers on national TV this past Sunday night.

Those combined 67 points and Joe Burrow's hot hand may have influenced this opening total, which I find too high given the matchup and expected weather conditions.

The forecast is for temperatures to be in the 20s with a 50 percent chance of snow. Las Vegas hasn't played in under 44 degree weather all season.

Burrow was sizzling in Weeks 16 and 17 combining to pass for nearly 1,000 yards with eight TD's. Burrow, though, may have lost some of his hot hand after being rested this past Sunday. The Raiders are a respectable 13th in pass defense. Las Vegas had allowed 15.6 points in its past three games prior to meeting the Chargers.

Cincinnati's defense was much improved this season especially against the run, ranking fifth in the NFL. The Bengals held the Raiders to 13 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in their, 32-13, victory in Week 11.

Before scoring 35 points on the Chargers, the Raiders had averaged only 14 points during their last five games. Derek Carr needs Josh Jacobs to keep him out of obvious passing situations. I don't see Jacobs doing much, though, against Cincinnati's strong rush defense.

Prop Bet

When healthy, Darren Waller is one of the top-five tight ends in football. Waller missed Weeks 13-17, but returned last week against the Chargers.

The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years.

I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season.

The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup.

Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return.

I understand that both of these offenses have regressed very much.

But this total is too low especially with this game being played on a fast track inside a dome.

The Saints may get both of their starting offensive tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramzcyk, back. That would be a huge plus as Armstead and Ramzcyk are well above average.

I consider dual threat Taysom Hill a major upgrade on Trevor Siemian. Alvin Kamara is an elite all-purpose back. Hill will be operating against an Atlanta defense that ranks 29th in points allowed, 26th in run defense and 24th in total defense.

Matt Ryan has endured a down season. But he's not devoid of weapons with Cordarrelle Patterson, who has put together a Kamara-type all-purpose season with 1,154 yards from scrimmage, and star tight end Kyle Pitts, who will be trying to break Mike Ditka's rookie record for tight end receiving yardage.

I find this line inflated because the Dolphins are out of playoff contention and the Patriots are off a 40-point victory against the Jaguars and are alive to win the AFC East.

The Dolphins, though, aren't going to roll over with a chance to finish above .500, beat their long-time division rival and have a number of players reach performance bonus incentives.

The Patriots won't win the division with a victory here if the Bills beat the Jets. The Patriots know the Bills aren't losing to the Jets.

Until giving up 34 points to the Titans last week on a short week and in a flat spot, Miam had held its previous seven opponents to an average of 11.7 points. Even in the loss to the Titans, the Dolphins held them to 308 total yards.

The Patriots don't have an explosive offense when going against a good defense. Bill Belichick doesn't have a good track record either when playing in Miami during December and January going 2-7 SU and ATS the past nine times. Playing in high 70-degree heat in January is not what the Patriots are used to.

This one is about mindset and numbers. The Cardinals are alive for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. All it would take is for them to win here and for the Rams to lose to the 49ers for the sixth time in a row.

Arizona ranks in the top 11 in nearly all of the major statistical categories, including giving up the fifth-fewest points and being ranked eighth in total offense.

Seattle won't be making the postseason for only the second time in the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks have below average offensive numbers and rank 30th in total defense and 31st in pass defense. And this was padding their statistics with a 51-29 victory against the Lions last week.

The Seahawks could enter this matchup, which for them is meaningless, fat and happy following that victory lacking a killer instinct. Seattle isn't likely to have its best defensive player, middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. He suffered a knee sprain last week.

The Cardinals have played three tough opponents during their last four games having drawn the Rams, Colts and Cowboys. Seattle, on the other hand, got to go against the Texans, Bears and Lions during three of its past four matchups.

Arizona defeated the Seahawks, 23-13, at Seattle in Week 11 outgaining the Seahawks by 147 yards.

Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers.

Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. 

Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. 

The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. 

I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. 

The Colts have thrived because of turnovers and the running of Jonathan Taylor, who has emerged as a superstar leading the NFL in rushing.

Stop Taylor and don't turn the ball over and you can beat the Colts. Turnovers are hard to predict when there's a veteran at quarterback, which the Raiders have in Derek Carr.

The Raiders have improved their run defense. They held Nick Chubb to less than 4.0 yards a carry in beating the Browns two weeks ago. Then Las Vegas stopped Denver's rushing attack completely last week in a victory. The Broncos managed only 18 yards on the ground.

The Colts are expected to have Carson Wentz. It's a big break for the Raiders if rookie Sam Ehlinger has to make his first start. I'm not counting on that. But lost in the news that Wentz is likely to play is the Raiders getting four key defenders removed from the COVID list - leading tackler linebacker Denzel Perryman, linebacker Cory Littleton, lineman Darius Philon and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is having a huge bounce back season.

The Raiders are 2-1 in their last three road games. They can clinch their first playoff berth in 19 years with a victory here and in Week 18 against the Chargers.

Two bad offenses playing in cold weather. Sounds like an Under, right? No, not when the total is this low and two worn down defenses are involved. 

The Giants are giving up an average of 30.6 points during their last three games. The Bears have scored at least 22 points in three of their past four games. 

David Montgomery is in line for a big performance with the Giants possibly down several of their run-stuffing defensive linemen. Andy Dalton can be effective with Montgomery doing the heavy lifting. Dalton has several underrated receiving targets. Matt Nagy shouldn't be afraid to open the playbook for the veteran Dalton. It's not like Nagy has anything to lose since he's likely to be canned at the end of the season.  

Former Bear Mike Glennon should get the start for the Giants. Glennon is a stiff, but he has some talented skill-position weapons and the Bears defense has not been good for a while now giving up an average of 27.6 points in their last nine games. 

The Cowboys' defense is better. However, their offense is worse. The combination of that, short revenge for Washington, the return of Taylor Heinicke and a boatload of points in this long-standing division rivalry puts me on Washington.

Dallas may not have its full motivation having clinched a playoff berth already when the 49ers lost to the Titans on Thursday.

The Cowboys nearly blew a 19-point lead when the teams met two weeks ago winning, 27-20. Washington will have Heinicke back after being forced to go with street free agent Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles last week due to Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen being sidelined by COVID-19. Washington is 6-6 with Heinicke under center.

Dak Prescott (calf) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are not 100 percent - and their performances have reflected that. Prescott has failed to exceed 238 yards passing in four of his last five games. Prescott has three TD passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Elliott hasn't broken the 52-yard rushing barrier in his last eight games. He's averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry only once during these past eight games.

Mike McCarthy brazenly and foolishly guaranteed the Cowboys would beat Washington in the first meeting. Ron Rivera could not have taken kindly to that amateurish display. Rivera is the better coach. It wouldn't shock me if Washington won this game straight-up.

Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week.

Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons.

Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season.

I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games.

Jacksonville has a real opportunity to do something it hasn't done during the last 15 games - win on the road. 

The opponent and timing are right for the Jaguars to halt the NFL's longest road losing streak. 

The Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball giving up the most yards and points while ranking 27th in scoring. They've also committed the most turnovers. If this isn't bad enough, the Jets are dealing with a major COVID-19 problem. Currently they have 18 players on the protocol list along with head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets already have many key injuries. They don't have the depth to deal with this. 

Jacksonville has the better defense, superior quarterback and top running back in James Robinson. The Jaguars give up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 21st in the league. The Jets rank last allowing 6.2 yards per play. 

I'm not a huge fan of Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, the Jaguars' new offensive brain trust. But they are professionals and an upgrade on clueless Urban Meyer. The Jaguars should be more focused for this matchup without the toxic Meyer after having to play the Texans last week just three days after finding out Meyer had been fired.

Missing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for much of the year, Matt Ryan has had a very disappointing season. So have the Falcons. 

The 6-8 Falcons still are alive for a playoff spot, though. This is a get well game for them and the timing couldn't be more perfect. 

The Lions are off just their second victory. Detroit has yet to win on the road. The Lions nipped the Vikings, 29-27, three games ago for their first win. Detroit followed that up by getting hammered on the road by the Broncos, 38-10. 

Now the Lions are off a 30-12 victory against the Cardinals and taking to the road. The Lions aren't expected to have Jared Goff. There's a huge drop from Goff to backup Tim Boyle, who is not going to be helped playing on the road. 

Detroit also has a cluster injury problem at cornerback. The Lions already were down Jeff Okudah and his replacement, Jerry Jacobs. Now they aren't expected to have Amani Oruwariye, who has become their No. 1 corner. Oruwariye has a thumb injury and may need surgery. 

So the Lions will have to face Ryan with Will Harris, a converted safety, and rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu at the starting cornerback spots. It's not like the Lions have the depth to fill these areas. Detroit ranks in the bottom-eight in all of the major defensive categories. 

The Falcons can't beat elite teams, but they've been solid against sub .500 foes having defeated the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers. 

The Eagles have won four of their last five games to reach 7-7. The Eagles are more average than good, though. During this five-game span the Eagles have faced the following five quarterbacks: Garrett Gilbert, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Siemian and Teddy Bridgewater. 

Philadelphia's lone loss during this time frame came to Jones and the Giants, 13-17, in Week 12. Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year NFL career in that matchup throwing three interceptions. 

The Giants won't have the injured Jones. Instead they'll go with untested Jake Fromm, who will be making his NFL first start. Fromm is a downgrade from Jones, but he can't be worse than Mike Glennon. Fromm has had a full week of working with New York's first-stringers this week. He has good skill position weapons. 
The Eagles are on a short week having beaten COVID-19 decimated Washington, 27-17, this past Tuesday night. The Eagles might not have their head coach, Nick Sirianni. The Eagles have the most inexperienced coaching staff in the NFL. It's a challenge for them to prepare on such a short week.  

The Giants are out of playoff contention at 4-10. But their defense has been hanging in and they will have motivation for this matchup. If you discount games against the Chargers and Buccaneers - two offenses with far stronger passing attacks than the Eagles - the Giants have given up an average of 17.8 points in their last six games. 

Besides this being a long-standing division rivalry, the Giants still hold a legitimate grudge against the Eagles for Philadelphia tanking in last season's finale against Washington. The Giants beat the Cowboys in their final game, but were denied the NFC East Division title when the Eagles failed to beat Washington. Then Eagles coach Doug Pederson replaced Hurts with backup Nate Sudfeld during the fourth quarter against Washington. Sudfeld was horrible, to no one's surprise, committing two costly turnovers. 

The Giants also want to see if Fromm can do anything given an opportunity. So there's some intrigue there. 

There's a certain ying/yang, zig/zag flow to the NFL season. Similar to the stock market, there is a buy low time. That time is now to get the Cardinals.

Arizona is better than the 3-4 record it has during the last seven games, while the Colts aren't as good as their 5-1 record during their past six games. The Cardinals looked terrible losing to the Lions last week, while the Colts were outstanding in handling the Patriots last week.

I expect a change-up this week and the price certainly is cheap enough to back the home Cardinals in circle-the-wagons mode.

The teams have had eight common opponents. The Colts went 4-4 SU and ATS against those foes while the Cardinals went 7-1 SU and ATS.

Indy needs Jonathan Taylor to succeed. But the Colts' excellent offensive line has injuries and COVID issues. They could be down as many as three O-line starters. Kyler Murray draws all the attention, but the Cardinals defense has been very good giving up the fifth fewest points in the league.

Murray holds a huge edge on Carson Wentz. James Conner has 16 TD's, just three fewer than touchdown leader Taylor.

I'm expecting an all-out desperation effort by the Cardinals. The Colts, on the other hand, could be flat after last week's performance and deflated knowing their long shot division chances took a huge hit when the Titans upset the 49ers this past Thursday.

I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell.

San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years.

The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team.

Much has changed since the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 31-27, back on Oct. 31. None of it good for New Orleans.

His toe may hurt, but Aaron Rodgers is in MVP-form with a 10-to-zero TD-to-interception ratio in his last three games. The Packers are averaging 37.3 points during this span. Davante Adams has been at his masterful best during the last three games, too, with 25 receptions for 340 yards and four TD's. Rodgers and Adams face a Ravens secondary full of injuries.

Tyler Huntley proved himself last week if Lamar Jackson can't play. Huntley was 27-of-38 passing for 270 yards with one TD pass and no interceptions against the Browns after Jackson suffered an ankle injury early in the game.

Green Bay is surrendering 30.6 points in its last three games.

Special teams are another factor. The Ravens have the best special teams in the league, including the top kicker. The Packers are well below average in special teams coverage.

No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role.

The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games.

Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given.

San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this.

On the surface this total may seem correct since the Texans are averaging just nine points in their last three games, while the Jaguars are averaging 9.1 points during their last seven games.

But the dynamics have changed. I doubt we see the combined 58 points that these teams put together opening week when Houston beat Jacksonville, 37-21. I do see, though, enough points being produced to safely get this above the listed total.

The Texans have had enough of veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor. Rookie Davis Mills is auditioning for the starting quarterback role. The Texans want to see what they have in Mills so they want him to air it out. Mills threw a season-high 49 times for a career-high 331 yards against the Seahawks last week. Mills has a pair of quality wide receiver targets, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.

Jacksonville ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 26.2 points a game.

I'm expecting the Jaguars' offense to become much better without Urban Meyer around to screw things up. Returning this week for the Jaguars is their center Brandon Linder, who was out with a back injury. James Robinson is expected to get a full workload - something Meyer should have done. This will make things easier for Trevor Lawrence, who also should come up big minus Meyer.

Houston has permitted 64 points during its last two games and are down key defenders due to injuries, sickness, or getting rid of.

Buffalo ranks first in total defense and third in scoring defense giving up 17.6 points a game. The Panthers have no passing game and their ground attack is greatly lessened with Christian McCaffrey out. The Panthers have become a full-fledged ground-and-pound team - excellent for Under the total - when they fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Panthers are averaging fewer than 20 points a game.

Josh Allen isn't 100 percent because of a foot injury. He's taking on a Carolina defense that ranks No. 1 in pass defense and gives up the second-fewest yards per game. Allen has turned the ball over at least once in each of the last six games committing 10 turnovers during this span.

This is a December game in Buffalo so the weather is going to be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the high 20's with 10 mph winds.

Pittsburgh is home and in must-win mode at 6-6-1 while the Titans have clear sailing to the AFC South Division title. The Titans, though, are not the same team since losing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, their best wide receiver. 

Tennessee hasn't broken the 23-point barrier in its last four games, averaging 17.2 points during this span. The Steelers' defense should be much better with T.J. Watt and cornerback Joe Haden returning to the lineup. Ryan Tannehill hasn't passed for more than 213 yards in four of his last five games.

The Titans' defense isn't strong enough to carry their depleted offense minus linebacker Bud Dupree and a banged-up secondary. Najee Harris has lived up to lofty expectations and Ben Roethlisberger still is showing life averaging 270 yards passing his past four games with nine TD throws during this time frame. 

The Steelers also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. That's big this late in the season. 

Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. 

As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point.

The Packers went into their bye last week after producing 36 points against the Rams. They should be fresh with a strong game plan and with the possible return of their best offensive lineman, David Bakhtiari.

Chicago's defense has been weakened by injuries to several players, including Khalil Mack, and sinking morale. The Bears have surrendered 29 or more points in four of their last six games. Their run defense ranks 23rd. The Bears will have to deal with the Packers' two-headed running back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, while also having to contend with Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of picking apart Chicago.

The Bears are getting some of their injured offensive players back, including Allen Robinson and Justin Fields, who should be well prepared and have fresh legs having been out the last two games.

Weather shouldn't be a major hindrance with temperatures in the 20's, no snow and wind in the 10-15 mph range.

It didn't show against the Patriots this past Monday night because of the extreme weather conditions, but the Bills are vulnerable defensively against the pass minus their injured star cornerback Tre'Davious White. Tom Brady, who leads the NFL in passing yards and passing TD's, is sure to exploit White's replacement, Dane Jackson.

Tampa Bay has scored 30 or more points in more than half of its games. The Bills' defense is worse than perceived. Buffalo fattened its defensive numbers by going against a number of mediocre-to-bad QB's. The Bills gave up 41 points to the Colts and 34 to the Titans. Brady is much better than Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill. Brady also has a much deeper set of receiving targets than those QB's have.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in seven of their 12 games. Both teams play at a very fast tempo, too. Unlike last week, weather won't be a hindrance for Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense.

Let's start with the premise Denver is going to win. This is perfectly logical since the Broncos are favored by double-digits and the Lions have one victory during their past 16 games.

Now the hard part. Will Denver cover the spread? The evidence and situation say they will.

The Broncos are 6-6. Their six victories were by 14 against the Giants, by 10 against the Jaguars, the Jets by 26, 7 over Washington, 14 against the Cowboys and 15 versus the Chargers. So all but one of their wins was by double-digits. The Broncos take care of business against bad teams. Their average winning margin against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets was 16.6 points.

Denver has lost only once to a sub .500 team. That was to the 6-7 Eagles.

Now the situation. The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt. The Lions are fat and happy having ended the NFL's longest losing streak with their victory against the Vikings at home last Sunday. The Lions hadn't reached 20 points since opening week prior to beating the Vikings, while averaging a puny 11.4 points during their previous four games.

Vic Fangio isn't going to be too challenged devising a defensive game plan to face such a weak offense, which probably will be devoid of its best player, injured D'Andre Swift. Jared Goff has never been a cold weather quarterback. The Broncos have an excellent secondary and their pass rush has improved.

Anyway you cut it, the Giants are going to be terrible at QB with a choice of injured Daniel Jones, immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, or fourth-stringer Jake Fromm, who was on Buffalo's practice squad last week behind three other QB's.

The Giants are not in sync with their new offensive coordinator, Freddie Kitchens. They have a bad offensive line, a battered wide receiving corps and Saquan Barkley remains unproductive nowhere near his elite status before he suffered a serious knee injury last year.

New York is averaging 14.4 points in its last five games. The Giants' offense looks much better on paper than it really is.

The Chargers are dealing with COVID-19 problems that have struck their two best wideouts, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Unlike their offense, the Giants are better defensively than perceived, giving up an average of 16 points during their last six games.

The Texans have one of the all-time worst offenses regardless of who their QB is, Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills. Houston ranks last in points, yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans are averaging 10.6 points in their last 10 games.

Seattle's defense has gotten much better. The Seahawks have surrendered 20 or fewer points during regulation in six of their last eight games.

The Seahawks' defense has accomplished this despite a weak offense that doesn't have any semblance of a ground attack. Russell Wilson is having a down year caused in part by a finger injury.

The Texans' defense usually plays hard. Prior to giving up 31 points to the Colts last week, the Texans had allowed an average of 17 points in its past three games.

It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards.

Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game.

It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game.

The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week.

Not only do the Patriots and Bills have the two best statistical defenses in the NFL, but there is a strong weather factor, too. Throw in this being a huge division game with two top-notch defensive coaches and you have all the right ingredients for an Under. 

New England is first in scoring defense holding foes to 15.8 points a game. Buffalo is next giving up 16.5 points. The Bills rank No. 1 in total defense. 
The weather forecast is frightful - rain, gusty winds in the 20-40 mph range and cold weather. In other words, Buffalo in December. 

Mac Jones hasn't experienced this type of weather. Bill Belichick is sure to have a sound defensive game plan for Josh Allen, who isn't having the big year he had last season. The Patriots are second in takeaways. 

The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday.

Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 

Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. 

A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. 

It's not just the expected return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins that makes the Cardinals worth backing. It's also the disarray that is the Bears and their key defensive injuries.

Khalil Mack is out for Chicago. Aikeem Hicks is questionable. So is Roquan Smith. He's been the Bears' best defensive player with nearly twice as many tackles as any other Bear. His sideline to sideline presence and pass rush threat would be highly missed by the Bears.

Matt Nagy is on his way out. It probably already would have happened if word didn't leak out before the Bears were ready to make the move. The Bears are extremely poorly coached. They were fortunate to beat the winless Lions on Thanksgiving.

The Cardinals are the fifth-leading scoring team in the NFL averaging 28.2 points despite Murray and Hopkins missing three games. Chicago averages 16.3 points. The Bears are last in passing. Their porous offensive line is going to have problems against sack masters Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden, who have combined for 18 sacks.