It's not just that both defenses have improved as to why I like the Under.

Check out the injury situation. I expect Aaron Jones and Christian Watson to play for Green Bay. Jones is a major upgrade on plodding A.J. Dillon, who is an Under bettor's dream every time he carries the ball for his two yards up the middle. But don't overlook offensive line injuries. As many as five starting offensive linemen could be missing.

The Packers definitely won't have their two best offensive lineman as left tackle David Bakhitari and left guard Elgton Jenkins are out. The Lions won't have right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Detroit also could be minus their other starting guard, Jonah Jackson, and left tackle Taylor Decker. Both Jackson and Decker are questionable.

There are quarterback issues, too. Jared Goff isn't mobile and has a history of not playing as well outdoors on grass as he does inside a dome. Jordan Love has accuracy issues and is averaging just 6.8 yards a completion.

Rashuan Gary is back for Green Bay. He had three sacks against the Saints last Sunday. Gary ranked tied for No. 2 in pressure percentage through the first eight games last season. But he suffered a season-ending knee injury in his ninth game and the Packers lost their pass rush without him.

The Lions have a stud defensive lineman, too, in Aidan Hutchinson. Gary and Hutchinson aren't at the Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa top passing rushing level. But they arguably could be in the second tier of pass rushers.

The Lions held the Falcons to 44 yards rushing on 20 carries last Sunday. Atlanta entered that matchup ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing at 170.5 yards per game. They had rushed for 100 yards in 18 of their previous 19 games. Detroit defensive back Brian Branch came out of that game as a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year player.

Note, too, this is a division matchup on a short week. These teams know each other well and there isn't time for them to put in new wrinkles.

The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia.

The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here.

Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations.

The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70.

This is a low total in today's NFL. I understand why the oddsmaker made it. The Panthers have shown nothing on offense. Seattle is missing its starting offensive tackles.

However, there is more than meets the eye here as to why this total should be higher.

Bryce Young hasn't moved the Carolina offense. But the rookie isn't going to play. Veteran Andy Dalton is. Look, I'm not a big Dalton fan. Never have been even when it was with the Bengals and was a decent starting QB. But Dalton is the right QB for the Panthers given Carolina's offensive limitations.

Dalton is a veteran. He'll take what the defense gives him and Seattle's defense is missing cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Free safety Quandre Diggs isn't likely to play either because of a hamstring injury. Dalton can take advantage of this and provide more stability than the work-in-progress Young could. Dalton has veteran pass-catchers Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark and tight end Hayden Hurst along with promising rookie Jonathan Mingo. The Panthers will be able to move the sticks.

The Seahawks got around their cluster injury problem at offensive tackle by having Geno Smith throw short. Seattle put up 37 points on the Lions on the road last week despite not having its starting offensive tackles. It's not like left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abe Lucas were All-Pro-caliber either.

Smith has one of the better wide receiver trios in the NFL with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njiba. Kenneth Walker is an above average running back.

The Panthers are missing two key defensive players with their No. 1 cornerback, Jaycee Horn, out with a hamstring injury and steady, veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson out with a leg/ankle injury.

The Patriots are in must-win mode being 0-2. Luckily they draw their favorite patsy - the Jets. New England has beaten the Jets 14 straight times.

New England has held the Jets to an average of 9.7 points during the last four games. New York might not reach 10 points again with a porous offensive line and Zach Wilson back at quarterback.

Bill Belichick scheming against a Wilson-led offense is a monster mismatch. The Jets can keep deceiving themselves, but the truth is Wilson is a stiff, a colossal draft bust. Wilson faced a strong defense last week. He had a 38.1 quarterback rating against the Cowboys. Already, Wilson has been intercepted four times.

New England's offense is far from dynamic, but it's improved enough to produce 17-to-20 points here. That would be enough given the Jets' impotent attack.

So look for the Patriots to make it 15 wins in a row against the Jets.

The Jaguars beat the Colts by 10 points opening week despite Indy getting a gift defensive TD. The Colts then defeated the Texans by 11 points in Week 2 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score. Now the Jaguars get the Texans.

The oddsmaker and marketplace are down on Jacksonville, though, because of its poor performance against the Chiefs at home last week.

But now the Jaguars don't have to worry about Patrick Mahomes or Chris Jones. I see a strong bounce-back effort from the Jaguars at home against a depleted Texans squad.

Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley are in for a big game against the Texans, who have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Out for the Texans are their top cornerback, Derek Stingley, free safety Jalen Pitre and nickel back Tavierre Thomas. Also hurt and out is Denzel Perryman, one of Houston's better linebackers.

Houston also has multiple injuries in its offensive line. They may get star left tackle Laremy Tunsil back from a knee injury, but remain without three other projected opening day offensive line starters.

The Jaguars' defense is underrated. They gave up 14 points to the Colts' offense and held the Chiefs to 17 points. The Jaguars also have five takeaways, bad news for turnover-prone rookie QB C.J. Stroud.

Detroit's Ford Field indoor dome is the football equivalent of Colorado's Coors Field when it comes to high scoring.

I have to seriously look Over when there's a Lions home game and the total is less than a key 47. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lions' last 11 home games.

I'm not sold on Detroit's so-called defensive improvement, nor its run defense. The Lions faced mediocre rushing teams Kansas City and Seattle in their first two games. Now they get the Falcons, a top-three rushing team with the second-best all-around running back in the NFL, Bijan Robinson. Yes, Robinson already has established himself as that and he could soon overtake Christian McCaffrey as the best.

The Lions may choose to load the box to key on the Falcons' ground attack. That would be risky, though, even against Desmond Ridder because Detroit has a clustery injury problem in its secondary. Out are safeties Kerby Joseph, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. Gardner-Johnson is an underrated player. The Lions' defense isn't nearly adequate enough to withstand multiple injuries.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. He's averaged more than two TD's per game at home. David Montgomery isn't likely to play for Detroit. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the Over. Montgomery is a North-South runner who eats clock with his inside running. Minus Montgomery the Lions could make exciting rookie Jahmyr Gibbs their featured back. Gibbs has been underutilized at this early stage of the season.

This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are mad after blowing a double-digit lead to the Falcons this past Sunday. This is their first home game.

New Orleans goes on the road for a second straight week. The Saints have to travel on a short week after holding off Carolina this past Monday night.

The early returns on Jordan Love are positive. Love enters this week tied for the most passing TD's in the league with six. The Saints have a new starting QB, too, Derek Carr. He hasn't made a major impact.

New Orleans is averaging 18 points a game, which ranks 25th. The Packers have an improved defense and the Saints are likely to be down to third-string running back Tony Jones with Alvin Kamara suspended and Jamaal Williams injuring his hamstring against Carolina.

The Saints are 2-0 having beaten the Titans and Panthers by a combined four points. They are an indoor, carpet team coming to Lambeau Field and its grass field.

Matt LaFleur is a perfect 5-0 when the Packers have met an unbeaten opponent.

Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win.

The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL.

I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses.

Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff.

Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers.

This one isn't going to be close.

This is a prime time Monday night game. But the Panthers are not a prime time team yet. Not with Bryce Young in his NFL infancy, lacking weapons and playing behind a mediocre offensive line that lost left guard Brady Christensen for the season last week against a New Orleans defense that hasn't allowed more than 20 points per game during its last nine games.

Carolina was held to 10 points and 281 yards by the Falcons last Sunday. Young's longest completion was 14 yards. He threw for only 146 yards and was intercepted twice. New Orleans has a better defense than Atlanta.

The Saints have given up an average of 11.2 points in their last four games going back to last season.

New Orleans also has the more dynamic offense with Derek Carr, Chris Olave, a finally-healthy Michael Thomas and emerging tight end Juwan Johnson. The Panthers lost one of their better players in their secondary with cornerback Jaycee Horn suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out a while.

First-year Carolina coach Frank Reich has a history of slow starts. His Colts teams of the previous five years were 2-5-1 SU, 3-5 ATS during the first two weeks of the season.

The Saints are serious playoff contenders. The Panthers are in rebuild mode. New Orleans is at least one, if not two tiers, higher than Carolina.

The Dolphins are not going to draw Bill Belichick's Patriots into a track meet. The Patriots have the superior defense of the two teams. The Patriots offense is improved and the weather conditions are in their favor. So is the situation.

Miami has to be at least a little fat-and-happy crisscrossing the country after beating the Chargers in LA last Sunday and now having to fly to the East Coast where the weather conditions will be different with 10-to-15 mile per hour winds.

The Patriots drew a bad break when the Eagles caught an early gift TD courtesy of their defense last week. But the Patriots showed their grit coming back from a 16-0 deficit to lose, 25-20, to the Super Bowl runner-up. New England outgained Philadelphia, 385-251. The Patriots forced more three-and-outs than the Eagles had all last season.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill had monster performances against the Chargers. Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards. Hill caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two TD's against the poorly-schemed Chargers defense.

Hill could be the best wide receiver in the AFC. But Belichick isn't going to let this combination beat his team by not paying full attention to Hill like the Chargers failed to do.

The Patriots also have the capability of playing ball-control with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott keeping the chains moving on the ground and the clock running. Mac Jones has upgraded wide receiver depth and much better offensive coaching/play calling than last season with the switch of offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia, a defensive coach, to Bill O'Brien.

Give me the 0-1 home team versus the 1-0 road team. Give me the Denver defense instead of the Commanders offense.

These are the main two factors why I like the Broncos to defeat the Commanders by more than a field goal at Mile High Stadium.

Washington was nip-and-tuck with Arizona, by far the worst team in the NFL, before pulling out a 20-16 home win last week. Commanders QB Sam Howell was sacked six times and committed two turnovers in that loss.

The Commanders were turnover-prone last season committing 23. They still are turnover-prone and the veteran, savvy Denver defense knows how to take advantage.

Russell Wilson didn't set the world ablaze in last Sunday's loss to the Raiders, but he was improved under Sean Payton. Wilson completed 27-of-34 passes for 177 yards and two TD's. I'm expecting Wilson to be much better this season. He's showing signs of that. Payton gives the Broncos more credibility on offense than they've had in the past.

The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. 

Dallas may have the No. 1 defense in the league after adding star cornerback Stephon Gilmore during the off-season. The Cowboys have a devastating pass rush led by Defensive MVP favorite Micah Parsons. Dallas sacked Daniel Jones seven times in its 40-0 destruction of the Giants this past Sunday night. The Cowboys generated pressure on 62 percent of Jones' dropbacks, the fourth-highest pressure rate in the last five years. 

If Aaron Rodgers didn't get hurt against the Bills, he probably wasn't going to survive this game given the Jets' uncertain offensive line play. Zach Wilson has had two years to show he isn't a bust. So far he's done nothing to dispel that. His inaccurate dink-and-dunk approach isn't going to be anywhere close to keeping up with the Cowboys' high-powered offense that has been upgraded with Tony Pollard becoming the lead running back and addition of now-motivated wide receiver Brandin Cooks. 

Yes, the Jets' defense is good. But they aren't going to be able to sustain the motivation and emotional edge they had against the Bills. 

The Giants are going from playing arguably the best team in the NFL, Dallas, to the undisputed worst, the Cardinals.

Elite coach Brian Daboll will be cracking the whip hard after the Giants were humiliated on national television by the Cowboys this past Sunday night. The Giants draw the perfect patsy to retain their identity and get their self-respect back.

All the Giants need to do to cover this number is play a relatively clean game, something the Commanders couldn't do last week when they beat the Cardinals but failed to cover.

Daniel Jones has the most speed he's had at wide receiver and an elite tight end in Darren Waller to go with top-five running back Saquan Barkley.

The Cardinals' pop-gun attack can't compete against that with no threat of a downfield passing attack.

These two teams played in 2021. Seattle won, 51-29. The two teams played again last year this time in Detroit. Seattle won, 48-45.

Now look at how low the total is for this year's matchup.

I find it to be an overreaction to the Seahawks' dismal performance in their 30-13 home loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Not only were the Seahawks shut out in the second half, but they lost both of their starting offensive tackles to injuries.

I'm expecting a lot of points to be scored here just like in the previous two meetings. The conditions are perfect being on a fast track inside a dome.

Geno Smith played well last year. One bad game doesn't alter that. He has three dangerous wideouts and a potential star at running back, Kenneth Walker. The Lions may be improved defensively, but not by that much. They gave up the most yards in the NFL last season, 392.4, and ranked 26th in scoring defense.

As for Seattle's tackle situation, they lost Abraham Lucas but may get back Charles Cross. He's questionable with a toe injury. The Seahawks were very proactive about these injuries, signing Jason Peters. If nine-time Pro Bowl selection Peters has anything left at 41, the Seahawks will be fine.

The Lions averaged 33.1 points in their nine home games last season. Their offense could be even better this season with the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff has the longest streak in the league of not throwing an interception with 359 passes of no interceptions.

Seattle could be minus star safety Jamal Adams. He missed opening week with a quad injury. Matthew Stafford took advantage of that to throw for 334 yards despite not having Cooper Kupp.

Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here.

Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board.

The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games.

Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up.

I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's.

Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances.

Getting points is just a bonus.

It's easy to rip on the Cowboys for their lack of playoff success. But what about the Giants and Daniel Jones? They don't get a pass now that they've become playoff contenders under Brian Daboll.

After a fast start, the Giants finished 3-6-1 last season. Opponents started keying on Saquan Barkley, holding him to an average of 58 yards rushing during the final 10 games. Jones failed to pick up the slack.

When it comes to prime time, Danny Dimes should be Danny Pennies. Jones is 1-10 in prime-time games.

Jones threw only 15 TD's passes last season. He's not as good as Dak Prescott. The Giants aren't as talented as the Cowboys on either side of the ball.

So there's no reason to overthink this matchup.

Dallas is 11-1 in its last dozen games versus the Giants. This includes a pair of victories last season by seven and eight points, respectively.

Prescott has weapons. I rate Tony Pollard ahead of Barkley. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks give the Cowboys the two best wide receivers.

Jones' major receiving weapon, tight end Darren Waller, is questionable with a hamstring.

Green Bay is flat out the better team. The Packers were five games better than Chicago last season. Does Aaron Rodgers make that big of a difference? Rodgers didn't have a good year by his lofty standards.

Jordan Love, surrounded by a top-10 offensive line and exciting skill position talent and stud running back Aaron Jones, is serviceable at the very minimum. That's enough to beat the Bears, who can't compare to the Packers in either the offensive line or defensive line.

Justin Fields can be a highlight reel. But Chicago is 5-20 SU, 8-16-1 ATS in his 25 starts. Love can throw downfield. Fields has yet to prove he can.

Green Bay has owned the Bears, too, winning 13 of the last 14. Sure much of that was Rodgers. But the Packers play the Bears with a lot of confidence. Green Bay wants to show right away it can win with Love and are no longer dependent on Rodgers.

The good news for the Patriots offense is they'll get better coaching with Bill O'Brien taking over as offensive coordinator from the clown show they had last season.

The bad news is New England's offense still appears very tepid. The offensive line already is banged-up, Mac Jones excites no one and Rhamondre Stevenson, the one above average Patriot skill position player, is questionable due to illness. Ezekiel Elliott was brought in, but he's nothing more than a plus for the Under with his high mileage and boring north/south running style.

The Eagles have the premier defensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia had 70 sacks last season. The next closest team, the Chiefs, had 55. I see the Eagles dominating the Patriots' offensive line.

Once again, the Patriots' strength is their defense. Bill Belichick is especially effective with extra time to prepare. The Patriots have held their last four Week 1 foes to an average of 12.7 points a game. It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in each of New England's past five openers.

Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has well below average skill position talent around him. Now he goes into his first NFL game - on the road at a tough venue - missing four projected offensive line starters. The Texans suffered multiple injuries to their offensive line in August. They could be down to their third-string center while minus their second and third-best offensive linemen.

Making it worse for Stroud is facing an aggressive, veteran well-coached Ravens defense on the road. He certainly is not set up for success.

The Ravens are emphasizing passing for the first time with Lamar Jackson, learning a different offense and with a new offensive coordinator. So their timing could be off in this first game.

Houston's strength is its defense. The Texans should be competitive defensively under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, formerly a highly productive linebacker.

Don't get suckered by the Vikings 13-4 record last season. They were the luckiest team in the NFL going 11-0 in one-score games. They actually had a negative season point differential.

The Vikings aren't good enough to lay this many points. Only once since Week 2 of last year did the Vikings beat an opponent by more than eight points. They were 2-5 ATS as favorites of four or more points.

The Buccaneers are the much better defensive team. Minnesota ranked 31st in pass defense last season.

Baker Mayfield could surprise this season. He's a good passing fit for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who are due for bounce-back seasons. Tom Brady threw a lot of passes last season, but he wasn't that effective.

The Colts haven't won a season opener in 10 years. Don't look for that streak to end this year against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars established themselves as a Super Bowl contender going 8-3 down the stretch while beating the Chargers in the postseason before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Jacksonville should be even better this season. Trevor Lawrence improves each season and he has an upgrade in weapons with Calvin Ridley, a top-15 wide receiver, and good-looking rookie running back Tank Bisby for short-yardage situations.

I'm not an Anthony Richardson-backer - at least at this embryonic stage of his NFL career. He's not ready to be an NFL starter. He made only 13 starts at Florida and was very inaccurate. His 53.8 completion percentage ranked 13th out of 14 SEC starting quarterbacks. The Jaguars are not stupid. They'll be aware of his mobility and running ability.

Making matters more difficult for Richardson is he doesn't have stud runner Jonathan Taylor to take the pressure off.

The Jaguars enter this season extremely confident. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is ultra-aggressive. He's not the type to let up with a lead, which is what you're looking for in a favorite.

I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line.

Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list.

Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes.

The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers.

It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits.

Player Prop:

David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing.

The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes.

Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams.

The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout.

Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number.

The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain.

It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC.

Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals.

Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury.

Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months.

Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games.

Patrick Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday. If Mahomes is anywhere close to 100 percent after injuring his ankle last week, this total is too low.

Even with both team's defenses being underrated, the Bengals and Chiefs have too much offense for a total this low. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Burrow is right near him on that short list with Josh Allen.

The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring at more than 29 points a game and also were No. 1 in total yards and passing yards. They have scored at 27 points in five of their last six games.

Burrow has even better weapons than Mahomes has. The Bengals have gone against five strong defenses during their last five games - Bills, Ravens twice, Patriots and Buccaneers. During this span, Cincinnati averaged 26.8 points.

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being for sunny skies, temperatures in the upper 20's and wind in the 10-12 mph range.

Not enough credit is being given to these defenses by how high this total is. San Francisco is the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL ranking first in scoring defense and total defense while placing second in run defense and takeaways. The Eagles easily led the NFL with 70 sacks.

Brock Purdy has been a huge success story surrounded by elite weapons and receiving excellent play-calling from Kyle Shanahan. But Purdy only has started two road games in the NFL and has never faced this level of pass rushers. The Eagles sacked Daniel Jones five times last week. Jones is far more mobile than Purdy.

I'm anticipating the 49ers to go run-heavy, which keeps the clock moving, and Shanahan being extremely careful and conservative with his play-calling. He knows the 49ers will be in trouble if they have to play from behind. San Francisco already plays at the slowest pace of any NFL team.

Jalen Hurts emerged as a superstar this season. But is his passing shoulder 100 percent healthy? Hurts and the Eagles haven't faced a defense this strong all season.

Weather-wise there's a slight chance of a rain shower with the wind blowing at 10-15 mph.

I trust the Cowboys' offensive line to do their job against the 49ers. The buy sign also is back on for Dak Prescott, who is off his best game of the season. Prescott threw for 305 yards against a good Buccaneers defense last week, while accounting for five touchdowns.

Brock Prudy - Mr. Relevant - has proven himself with multiple TD passes in each of seven starts. He has a 16-to-3 TD-to-interception ratio in his starts. The 49ers have scored 33 or more points in six of their last seven games with Purdy behind center.

The Cowboys' defense has sprung leaks. During four of the last five regular-season games they surrendered 23 points to the Texans, 40 points to the Jaguars, 34 to the Eagles, who were quarterbacked by backup Gardner Minshew, and 26 to the Commanders.

Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here.

The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week.

The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games.

Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage.

I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets.

This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs.

Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher.

The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games.

The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games.

The Vikings can be explosive because of Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook and they are at home. Brian Daboll is no dummy. He knows this. His Giants have the least postseason experience of any of the playoff teams.

So it's not hard to figure that Daboll is going conservative here. That means lots of running and short passes to Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones not taking chances.

The Giants are better on defense because they are healthier. They've held their last four opponents to 17.7 points. New York is familiar with Minnesota. The teams just met three weeks ago. It took a 61-yard field goal at the gun by Greg Joseph - an inconsistent kicker - for the Vikings to prevail, 27-24, in that home game.

New York didn't have its best safety, Xavier McKinney, nor its top cornerback, Adoree' Jackson, in that game. Both are expected to play here. The Vikings could be down two offensive line starters with center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Brian O'Neill both injured. Kirk Cousins has a history of not stepping up in big games. Rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux has shown signs lately of being an elite pass rusher.

The Vikings do not have good defensive numbers. However, they have a number of excellent defenders - Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Za'Darius Smith. Minnesota is good at takeaways ranking 12th in the league.

It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills.

Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed.

The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here.

Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower.

The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin.

The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout.

Two top-10 offenses facing two below average defenses. Justin Herbert versus Trevor Lawrence. All of this had me strongly leaning to the Over. But what clinched the Over is finding out who is going to be refereeing this game. It's the Shawn Smith crew.

This is significant. This umpiring crew has ranked in the top-five for calling the most defensive penalties each of the last four seasons. They also called the second-fewest offensive holding penalties this season.

Herbert should come up big against the Jaguars, who rank 28th in pass defense and 24th in defensive total yards.

Lawrence should perform well, too, operating against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring defense and 20th in total defense. The Jaguars put up 38 points on the Chargers in Week 3 with Lawrence throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns.

There weren't more than 34 points scored in either of the Seahawks-49ers regular season games this season. I don't see that pattern changing here.

San Francisco's No. 1 ranked defense, the weather and a run-oriented conservative approach by the 49ers behind rookie QB Brock Purdy are all key factors for the Under.

Discounting a 37-34 game against the Raiders, the 49ers have held their past nine opponents to an average of 12.2 points. San Francisco surrendered the fewest yards and points in the NFL.

There is a 90 percent chance of rain, potentially heavy, with wind in the 15-20 mph range. This is on a grass field so the footing is going to be slow.

Expect the 49ers to run a lot especially under these circumstances.

The Seahawks have regressed offensively, but gotten better defensively. Seattle is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games, while giving up an average of 16.7 points during this span.

Geno Smith has never been effective against elite defenses. He had just one touchdown pass in two games against San Francisco, averaging 217.5 yards passing. The 49ers tied for the lead in interceptions and had the second-most takeaways.

I see a shootout coming here. It's taken nearly the entire season, but the Packers finally have their offensive identity. Green Bay has one of the best running back tandems with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon and Aaron Rodgers has gotten in sync with his wide receivers. The bar is set low here as the Lions have a bottom-four defense. 

The Packers also finally have a special teams threat thanks to Keisean Nixon, who leads the NFL in kickoff return yardage and kickoff return average. 

The Lions have a top-five offense. They've scored at least 25 points in six of their last eight games. The Packers' defense has been thriving not because they are dominant, but because of forcing 12 turnovers during their last four games. Detroit, though, commits the fewest turnovers in the NFL. Jared Goff, who quietly has put together a very good season with 4,214 passing yards and 29 TD passes, hasn't been picked off in his last eight games. 

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being clear with the temperature around 20 and the wind at 5-to-10 mph.  

The 2022 Broncos were a disaster under overmatched first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. But the 2023 Broncos under Jerry Rosburg are much more professional, helped by Russell Wilson finally playing better. Denver would very much like to avoid losing 13 games for the first time in the 62-year-old history of the team.

The Broncos can accomplish that by beating the Chargers.

If the Bengals defeat the Ravens - and they currently are 9 1/2-point home favorites to do so - the Chargers would be locked into the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs rendering this matchup meaningless. The Chargers would know that result since this game goes later in the day while the Ravens-Bengals is an early game.

This is what Chargers coach Brandon Staley said about that scenario, '' Once we find out about that game, we'll make the appropriate decisions moving forward ...''

The Chargers signalled their intent not to risk injury to any key starters last week pulling out starters early in the fourth quarter during their 31-10 win against the Rams.

So there's a very good chance that journeyman backup quarterback Chase Daniel could play far more than Justin Herbert.

Even if the Chargers play their starters, I still like the Broncos based on Wilson performing better, being at home and having the superior defense. The Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting the Chargers.

Nathan Peterman. Need I say more? OK, I will. The Bears have lost nine in a row, most in franchise history. Their defense has fallen apart, done in by injuries and trades to the tune of surrendering 34 points a game during their nine-game losing skid.

There's more. The Bears could clinch the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss and a victory by the Texans against the Colts.

The Vikings are in the playoffs, but they still have incentive. They have a shot at the No. 2 slot. They also want to erase the stench of a 41-17 road loss to the Packers last week. Minnesota hasn't lost two games in a row all season.

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said he would go with his starters against the Bears.

That's not the case with Chicago. Justin Fields is being held out so Peterman gets the start. I regard him as one of the worst reserve quarterbacks of all-time. Somehow Peterman has lasted five years in the NFL. He's played in 12 games, completed 52.5 percent with a puny 4.2 yards per pass and a 3-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's a threat to throw a pick-six every time he drops back to pass.

Minnesota has beaten Chicago during the past three meetings winning by seven or more points each time.

I don't see the justification in the Falcons being favored here. Yes, the 8-8 Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South Division. But they want very much to finish above .500 and build positive momentum for the playoffs. Todd Bowles knows his team has to be sharp. That's why he said he will be playing his starters, including Tom Brady.

Brady is coming off his best game throwing for 432 yards and three TD's against the Panthers, who have a better defense than the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 29th defensively in total yards and 26th in pass defense.

The Falcons aren't very good on offense either. They are averaging 15.2 points in their last five games. Atlanta hasn't scored more than 20 points in seven of its last eight games. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is set to make his fourth NFL start. He's yet to throw a TD pass. He's facing a top-eight defense in the Buccaneers, who also are tough to run against.

Tampa Bay has won the last five games in the series.

The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. 
New England has a good defense, but statistically it is not as good as Buffalo's.

Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. 

So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? 

This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. 

I'm not sold on the untested Jaguars coming through in big games. Tennessee has that big-game experience. Jacksonville doesn't.

The Titans have been in free-fall with six straight losses. They still can win the AFC South, though, with a victory here. The Titans have been decimated with injuries. But they are getting some key players back, including a rested Derrick Henry and two of their best defenders, lineman Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, their top pass rusher.

Tennessee found out the hard way that rookie Malik Willis is not a skilled enough passer. So the Titans are giving Joshua Dobbs a second consecutive start. He makes better decisions than Willis, provides the Titans with at least the threat of a downfield passing game and has Henry to rely upon. The Jaguars rank 28th in pass defense.

Henry has a strong history against Jacksonville with two 200-yard rushing games and three 100-yard rushing games.

The Titans also have an underrated weapon - punter Ryan Stonehouse. He's averaging 53 yards per punt. The NFL record is 51.4 yards set by Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh in 1940.

Tennessee has won nine of the past 11 meetings against Jacksonville going 8-3 ATS. The Titans have covered in four of their last five visits to Jacksonville.

Green Bay is in must-win mode and playing its best ball, winners of three in a row.

I'm not fooled by the Vikings' 12-3 record. They have only outscored their opponents by five points and have a losing point spread mark.

The Vikings give up the second-most yards in the NFL and rank last in pass defense.

I trust Aaron Rodgers to get this home victory. He'll have both his starting offensive tackles, star left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Yosh Nijman. So Rodgers should have time to throw.

The same can't be said for Kirk Cousins. He's been sacked 11 times during the last two games.

The Packers have been the fourth-best team in the NFL during the last five weeks behind only the 49ers, Bills and Eagles going by the metric Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures efficiency.

This total is too low given that Trevor Lawrence is playing the best since he came into the NFL, Davis Mills is underrated when playing at home and how bad these defenses are.

Lawrence has accounted for 16 touchdowns with only one interception during his last seven games. The Texans rank 30th in defensive total yards and last in run defense. So Lawrence should get plenty of ground assistance from Travis Eitenne. 

Mills plays much better at home. He's accounted for 13 of his 16 passing and rushing TD's this season at NRG Stadium. 

The Jaguars rank 26th in total defense and 29th in pass defense. 

The Eagles should polish off the Saints by more than a TD. They don't need Jalen Hurts to do that. Gardner Minshew is one of the better backup QB's in the league and the Eagles own huge edges in the trenches.

Philadelphia leads the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points a game. The Eagles have outscored their opponents by 137 points. Only twice in their last seven games, have the Saints managed more than 17 points.

Philadelphia leads the NFL in sacks. The Eagles have four players with nine or more sacks. They should overwhelm immobile, over-the-hill Andy Dalton, who is minus a couple of offensive line starters.

The Eagles are 6-1 at home. New Orleans is averaging fewer than 11 points a game during its last four road matchups.

The Saints have the fewest takeaways in the NFL with 10 while ranking 29th in turning the ball over. The Eagles have 26 takeaways, second-most in the league.

The Cardinals are bad. But so are the Falcons, losers of six of their last seven games, including four in a row.

David Blough gets the QB start for Arizona. He actually has more experience than Desmond Ridder, who has yet to throw a TD pass in two starts. Blough isn't as bad as Trace McSorley. The Cardinals nearly beat the Buccaneers last week with McSorley under center falling, 19-16, in overtime.

The Cardinals underachieved this season and were hurt by a season-ending injury to Kyler Murray. But they have more talented players than Atlanta and should provide a strong effort for retiring J.J. Watt and Kliff Kingsbury, who is trying to hold on to his coaching job.

The Bears are giving up 32.6 points per game in their last eight games. It's obvious their defense is broken. The Lions average 32.1 points at home. Jared Goff has a 20-to-3 TD-to-interception ratio at Ford Field compared to 6-to-4 in away games. His passer rating is nearly 20 points higher at home.

Safe to say, the Lions are going to get their share of points here. The big question is can the Bears keep up? They certainly did in the first meeting losing, 31-30. 

Justin Fields is motivated to break the NFL's quarterback rushing record. He's 195 yards short. Fields ran for 147 yards and two TD's in the 31-30 loss. The Lions just gave up 320 yards on the ground to the Panthers last week. 

Detroit gives up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also rank 30th in pass defense. 

No passing game without Ryan Tannehill. No ground game without Derrick Henry. No chance for the Titans.

I'm jumping on board the Titans fade train before this line reaches two touchdowns.

The Titans already have ruled out seven starters, including their three best offensive linemen. They could hold out a number of other banged-up players, too, since this game doesn't mean anything to them. The Titans meet the Jaguars next week with the winner of that matchup capturing the AFC South Division.

Tennessee has lost five in a row, averaging 15.2 points during this span. Dallas is 5-1 in its last six games still alive to win the NFC East Division. Bolstered by the return of Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are averaging an NFL-best 36 points a game during the last 10 weeks. The Titans rank 31st in pass defense.

The Titans have little back-door capability with backup rookie Malik Willis or Joshua Dobbs. The  Cowboys have 49 sacks and a plus-12 turnover ratio.

The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. 

Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. 

Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. 

The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. 

This NFL matchup is going to be like Army-Air Force - nearly all running.

Both teams are heavily ground-oriented with backup quarterbacks, who will be dealing with horrendous weather elements, including cold and heavy wind making it difficult to pass.

Baltimore has managed only two touchdowns in its last three games while missing Lamar Jackson. Tyler Huntley is a game manager. He doesn't throw downfield and he's not accurate. The Ravens rank 29th in the red zone so they'll likely be settling for field goals in what should be a very conservative game.

Falcons coach Arthur Smith doesn't want rookie Desmond Ridder, in just his second NFL start, to throw much either. I see Smith stubbornly sticking with the run despite the Ravens ranking No. 3 against the run.

Both teams play at a slow tempo, too.

The Bills are going to have to deal with Justin Fields in a real flat spot for them. Buffalo just accomplished what it set out to do during the previous three games - win division games against the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins. So motivation becomes an issue for Buffalo.

The Bills are a pass-happy team. The weather won't be in their favor. Sustained winds up to 35 mph are in the forecast. There could be snow, too, with temperatures around 10 degrees. 

Thanks to Fields, the Bears lead the NFL in rushing. They are expected to get back Khalil Herbert, one of the more underrated running backs in the league. Fields has accounted for 20 touchdowns in his last nine games. His moves outside of the pocket can't be defended. 

The Bears' defense has been playing hard and has gotten healthier in the secondary. 

Since Week 2, the Bears have lost by more than nine points only twice. 

Turnovers could be a key here. The Bears have turned the ball over nine fewer times than Buffalo. 

Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland weather will be too much for the warm-weathered Saints.

It's going to be bitter cold with the wind chill factor going below zero. That's not suitable for the Saints, who play on carpet inside their temperature-controlled dome.

The Browns should control the trenches. The highly reliable Chubb should be featured. The Saints have permitted at least 148 yards rushing in four of their last six games. They just allowed the Falcons to produce 231 yards on the ground against them.

Deshaun Watson should have less rust making his fourth start of the season while having a better grasp of Cleveland's offense.

The Saints have a key offensive line injury with guard Cesar Ruiz out. They also will be minus their top wideout, Chris Olave.

I see the Browns controlling both lines of scrimmage and thus the game.

Don't be fooled by the Vikings' 11-3 record. They have outscored their opponents by just two points and have a losing point spread mark.

The Vikings are fat and happy having already won their NFC North Division after coming from 33 points down to beat the Colts in overtime last week.

Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has already said his priority is having a healthy team ready for the playoffs.

The Giants have more urgency. They are off a key, confidence-regaining road win against the Commanders to put them in the playoff hunt.

Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can produce enough numbers against a Vikings' defense that ranks last in total yards and 28th in scoring defense to keep the Giants firmly in this game if not pull the outright upset.

No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense.

The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points.

The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points.

Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either.

Trevor Lawrence gives the Jaguars a quarterback edge. But that's not enough for Jacksonville. The Jets hold a strong defensive advantage, home-field on a short week and a situational advantage. The Jaguars also have two key defensive injuries in their trenches with offensive left tackle Cam Robinson and defensive lineman Travon Walker both out.

The Jets have a top-five defense that is made even better with the expected return of star defensive lineman Quinnen Williams from a calf injury. The Jaguars rank 27th in total defense. 

Lawrence is playing well, but he's going to be impacted by the weather. He's also stepping up in defensive class after taking on the Cowboys, Titans and Lions. The Jets have allowed the second-fewest TD passes and third-fewest yards per pass attempt. Lawrence won't have his blind side protector with Robinson out. 

The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Energy could be a problem as they just pulled out a huge comeback against the Cowboys winning in overtime last Sunday. Now they are traveling into wet weather on a short week. The forecast is for gusting winds and a quarter inch of rain. The last time Lawrence played in rain was against the Eagles in early October - and he committed five turnovers. 

I'm not a fan of Zach Wilson, but he did look better throwing for 317 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions at home this past Sunday. 

Making a trip to Lambeau Field in December is not fun for the warm-weathered Rams. This is doubly so because the Rams are out of contention at 4-9.

The Packers aren't much better at 5-8, but they still have playoff hope - if they win this game. The elements and injury situation sets up for Green Bay.

The Rams' offense is decimated and their best defender, superstar tackle Aaron Donald, is out for a third straight week because of a high ankle sprain.

There is a 70 percent chance of snow although wind shouldn't factor being in the 5-10 mph range. This is Packers weather and they have the ground game to take advantage with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Aaron Rodgers still is playing at a high level. The Packers also have found their first decent kick returner in many years, Keisean Nixon.

The Rams won the Super Bowl last season yet the Packers beat them at Lambeau Field, 36-28, last year with Rodgers accounting for three scores.

Now the Rams' offense is down to Baker Mayfield, who is on his third team this season, Cam Akers and a host of backup wideouts behind an offensive line full of scrubs.

Everything is in place for the Packers to beat the Rams by more than a touchdown.

Just two weeks ago, the teams played each other to a 20-20 tie. The Giants had scored their 20 points by early in the third quarter. The Commanders came back to get the tie with 1:45 left in regulation on a Taylor Heinicke TD pass.

Since then, the Giants have gotten more beat up on defense while the Commanders finally enjoyed their bye week.

Now, in the rematch, I see more points being scored.

Daniel Jones has a strong history against Washington. He plays better against the Commanders than any other team. Saquon Barkley gives New York the best skill position player. This is the Giants' season so they'll be pulling out everything to put up points.

Heinicke, emerging Brian Robinson and ace pass catcher Terry McLaurin should have productive games against a fading and battered Giants defense that has allowed 411 or more yards in each of their last three games.

The Giants have been missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson, safety Xavier McKinney and run-stuffing defensive lineman Leonard Williams. New York is now down to 26th in total defense and 29th in run defense.

The Titans can't stop the pass, are missing their best pass rusher, Denico Autry, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. The Chargers can't stop the run and are missing key defensive backfield players. 

So this sets up as a higher scoring game than the oddsmaker anticipates. 

Derrick Henry entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing. The Chargers are 28th in run defense and 28th in scoring defense. They are likely to be without star safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan again this week. Henry should find success running, which in turn will aid Ryan Tannehill in the Titans' passing game. 

Mike Williams returned for the Chargers last week after missing two games with an ankle injury. That makes a huge difference in LA's passing attack. Williams is the Chargers' lone deep threat. He opens up the attack for Justin Herbert. 

Herbert is in line for a monster performance operating against a Titans secondary that ranks last in the NFL. 

The Chargers have been an elite kicking team this season unlike past years. LA kickers are 25-for-27 in field goals and 30-for-30 in extra points. 

The Texans don't have too many good players and they will be missing some of those players. Among those out for Houston are cornerback Derek Stingley, wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and its best skill position player, running back Dameon Pierce. This leaves Davis Mills, a garbage quarterback, with nothing but garbage as weapons.

The Chiefs can name their score. I predict they will name it in blowout fashion. Kansas City jumped in front of Denver, 27-0, last week before holding on for a 34-28 win. The Texans nearly upset the Cowboys last Sunday before losing in the final minute, 27-23. That might have been the Texans' Super Bowl.

So I don't see the Chiefs taking the Texans lightly here. That's all that matters because the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, if not all of football, while the Texans are the worst.

Jared Goff in cold weather. Zach Wilson in any weather. That combination, along with a much-improved Lions defense and a tough Jets defense, puts me on the Under. 

Goff and the Lions offense isn't going to be high-powered against a Jets defense that ranks third in total defense and sixth in scoring defense especially in outdoor winter conditions. The forecast is for temperatures in the 30's with 15-to-29 mph winds. 

That's bad for a touch passer such as Goff, who has a poor record in cold elements. The Jets just held the Bills to 232 total yards last week. 

Wilson is another finesse passer. He lacks accuracy. He's been a bottom tier quarterback since joining the NFL last year. The Lions' defense has come on holding their last two opponents - Vikings and Jaguars - to a combined 37 points. 

The Texans don't have too many good players and they will be missing some of those players. Among those out for Houston are cornerback Derek Stingley, wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and its best skill position player, running back Dameon Pierce. This leaves Davis Mills, a garbage quarterback, with nothing but garbage as weapons.

The Chiefs can name their score. I predict they will name it in blowout fashion. Kansas City jumped in front of Denver, 27-0, last week before holding on for a 34-28 win. The Texans nearly upset the Cowboys last Sunday before losing in the final minute, 27-23. That might have been the Texans' Super Bowl.

So I don't see the Chiefs taking the Texans lightly here. That's all that matters because the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, if not all of football, while the Texans are the worst.

Doubt must be cast on Tua Tagovailoa following two consecutive poor road performances these last two weeks against the 49ers and Chargers. Miami averaged just 260 total yards and 17 points in those two games. The Chargers' defense is 28th in scoring defense and was without several important defensive players.

I don't see the Dolphins bouncing back on the road against the Bills' defense, which gives up the second-fewest points and ranks in the top 10 in total defense.

Neither offense is going to be helped by the weather conditions with the forecast calling for cold, possible heavy snow and wind in the 15-20 mph range.

These elements take away the Dolphins' most dangerous offensive feature, which is the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa remains unproven in big road games and in cold weather. The Dolphins managed only 212 yards in the first meeting, played in sunny Florida. There were 40 points scored in that contest.

Now the weather has flipped and Miami's offense is at low tide for the first time since Tagovailoa returned from a concussion.

The Bills are in a perfect spot to exact their revenge for an oddball, 21-19, road loss to the Dolphins back in Week 3. Buffalo lost to Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by 285 yards. That game was played in brutally humid South Florida conditions back in September.

This matchup is just the opposite with a winter storm watch issued. Cold, possibly heavy snow and gusting winds are in the forecast. The warm-weather Dolphins with their warm-weather QB, Tua Tagovailoa, are not equipped for this type of weather element. The Dolphins rely on precision passing timing with Tagovailoa getting the ball out fast to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has never even played in temperatures below 37 degrees.

The Dolphins have been exposed as big-game frauds the past two weeks by the 49ers and Chargers. They managed just a combined 521 total yards of offense in those games. The Chargers were minus several of their best defenders, including safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa.

MIami is giving 31.4 points on the road this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six away matchups.

Josh Allen is much more comfortable in cold weather games. I expect the Bills to score against a mediocre Miami defense and the Dolphins' offense unable to counterattack.

The Vikings rank 10th in scoring. Indy is 30th in takeaways with just 11. The Vikings are expected to get back injured starting offensive linemen left tackle Christian Darrisaw and center Garrett Bradbury. Minnesota averages 1.6 yards more rush when Darrisaw plays. The Colts just yielded 54 points and eight TD's in their last game. So I expect the Vikings to do their fair share of getting this total Over.

Same with the Colts.

Indy is off a bye and has a healthy Jonathan Taylor to give Matt Ryan ground support and thus make his play-action passing more effective.

The Vikings have yielded more than 400 yards in each of their last five games. During this span, the Vikings have permitted more than 30 points per game.

The Dolphins are 8-1 SU, 6-3 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game. The one loss came this past Sunday at San Francisco when Miami ran into the top defense in the league.

The Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. They are likely to face the Dolphins' record-setting wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. James is in the discussion for best safety in the league. Miami had produced 30 or more points in four straight games prior to the 49ers.

The Chargers aren't going to be able to slow down Miami. Justin Herbert has too many injuries around him to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. LA is averaging 21.4 points in its last seven games.

LA has not defeated an above .500 team all season. The step up is too high for the Chargers.

Tom Brady versus Brock Purdy. Yeah, I'll take 3 1/2 with that

The 49ers have become the best defense in the NFL. But they may not have their most disruptive force with Nick Bosa questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Buccaneers aren't too shabby defensively either. They rank fifth in scoring defense giving up 18.3 points a game and have the fourth-most sacks.

Tampa Bay is 14-5-2 ATS during its last 21 December games.

The 49ers have won five in a row since losing to the Chiefs. Miami was their only win against a winning club, though, during this span.

The Panthers are trying their hardest to earn trust. They are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Interim coach Steve Wilks has won the locker room in his bid to become permanent head coach. Sam Darnold is the right quarterback choice.

Seattle is in a division sandwich. The Seahawks got past the surprisingly stubborn Rams, 27-23, on a late TD pass from Geno Smith last Sunday and have their biggest game of the season on deck hosting the 49ers next week.

The Seahawks are facing an underrated Carolina defense being severely banged-up at running back. The Panthers have held their last foes to an average of 12.6 points. The Panthers should be rested and ready coming off their bye week.

Daniel Jones doesn't make enough downfield passing plays. Saquon Barkley is averaging just 2.8 yards rushing in his last three games on 44 carries. The Eagles rank No. 1 in pass defense and No. 2 in total defense. Their run defense has gotten much better with Joseph Linval and Ndamkong Suh joining a now healthy Jordan Davis.

The Giants have a bend-but-don't-break defense that gives up the 12th fewest points at 21 per game. New York's pass rush has picked up with both Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux healthy.

Both teams are run-oriented. The forecast is for light rain. This is the Giants' season. So I see a tight, ball-control conservative game plan.

The Bengals experienced a frightful Halloween losing, 32-13, on the road to the Browns.

Cincinnati is much the superior team. I see the Bengals getting their revenge. Take away that game and the Bengals would be 9-1 SU, 10-ATS. They are playing well. Cleveland isn't.

While Joe Burrow has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last seven games, Deshaun Watson is off a horrendous season debut generating no touchdowns against the Texans. Watson's passer rating was 54.3, a career-worst.

Josh Jacobs, Davonte Adams and Maxx Crosby have lifted the Raiders back into playoff contention leading Las Vegas to three straight victories. The Raiders got hot last season to sneak into the playoffs and they're showing signs of repeating that this season.

The Rams, on the other hand, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa.

Sean McVay thinks so little of backup quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, who has a neck injury, that the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers. The Browns gave up on Mayfield and now the Panthers had their fill of Mayfield.

Whoever is behind center for the Rams has to deal with backups - some fourth and fifth-stringers - at just about every offensive position. The Rams have had to use a different offensive line in every game because of multiple injuries. LA has no ground game and is minus its two best wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson.

The Raiders are playing much better defense, limiting opposing running backs to 3.07 yards during the last three weeks, which is the third-lowest mark during this span. Las Vegas also has 11 sacks during its last three games.

Jacobs is the hottest runner in the NFL. He's averaging 179 yards rushing in his last four games. The Rams' defense is far less fierce up front minus Aaron Donald, who is out, along with run-stuffing nose guard A'Shawn Robinson. So Jacobs is in line for another huge performance.

Adams is averaging 137.6 receiving yards in his last three games. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the Rams' best player in their secondary and he's been playing poorly.

The Rams put forth a great effort this past Sunday against the Seahawks, a team the Raiders beat. However, the Rams came up short, 27-23, against Seattle. I doubt the Rams produce another ''A'' game. The Raiders are likely to have better, crowd support than the home Rams.

Home field: Check mark to Buccaneers. It's an off-surface, too, for the visiting Saints. They are used to turf not grass. 

Quarterback: Check mark to Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. 

Defense: Check mark to the Buccaneers' fifth-ranked defense compared to the Saints' 21st ranked defense. 

These are three strong handicapping factors as to why I believe the Buccaneers will beat the Saints by more than a field goal. 

The Saints are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four true road games. They haven't won on a grass field all season, including last week when they were shut out by the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. 

Not only is Brady much superior to turnover-prone Dalton, but he has better receiving weapons with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is coming off his best game of the year since suffering a knee injury last December.

The Saints could be down two members of their secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven games due to an abdominal injury and safety P.J. Williams suffering a knee injury last week. 

Brady entered this Week 13 leading the NFC in passing yards. He's been picked off just once since opening week. Dalton has been intercepted six times in his last four games.

Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bucs rank fifth in pass defense and ninth in total defense. The Saints rank 21st in scoring defense. They have the fewest takeaways in the league with just six. 

The Rams have no hope this season and Sean McVay knows it. He admits he doesn't have the players to compete anymore. The oddsmaker has not fully grasped this yet.

Minus Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and going with their 11th different offensive line combination, the 3-8 Rams are dead. They have lost five in a row, averaging 14.8 points during this span.

Seattle isn't about to feel sorry for the Rams. The Seahawks have lost two in a row with the latter coming in overtime to the Raiders. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. Geno Smith is playing his finest ball, a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. He's helped the Seahawks average 26.5 points, fourth-best in the league. Seattle has averaged even more during their last four road games producing an average of 37 points.

Losing Donald really hurts the Rams' defense and their offense is broken, forced to use scrubs at quarterbacks and fourth and fifth-string type offensive linemen.

This should be a loose and fun game between a pair of 4-7 teams.This matchup is inside a dome thus ensuring a fast track. Both head coaches are aggressive. All pluses for an Over.

Trevor Lawrence is finally living up to his immense hype. He's enjoying his best three-game NFL stretch completing 77 percent of his throws for six TD's and no interceptions during this span. The Jaguars just put up 28 points against a much better Ravens defense.

The Lions give up the most points in the NFL at 28.2. They've allowed 24 or more points in all but two of their games.

Detroit, though, is a top-eight scoring team. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in five of their 11 games. Jared Goff is a much better quarterback when playing in warm weather. He faces a Jaguars pass defense that ranks 25th.

The Commanders are 6-1 in their last seven games. They've gotten a big boost since making a QB switch from toxic Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke. 

But I see the Commanders running out of gas in this divisional matchup. The Giants are getting healthier and are on a mini-bye having last played on Thanksgiving. The Commanders haven't had their bye week yet. 

I like Brian Daboll more than Ron Rivera. I favor Daniel Jones above Heinicke and I certainly like Saquon Barkley far more than any Washington skill position player. Barkley's matchup is enhanced by the Commanders missing highly underrated linebacker Cole Holcomb. Barkley gets another boost with the expected return of good-looking rookie offensive right tackle Evan Neal from a knee injury.

Jones has a history of playing well against Washington. He has nine TD passes against them, which is four more than he has thrown against any other opponent. 

Heinicke has provided an emotional spark to the Commanders. Talent-wise, though, he's not very good. He's short and doesn't have a strong arm. Heinicke has a 7-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his six starts. 

The Giants have covered five of the last seven times in this series. 

Pittsburgh has yet to win two in a row this season. I don't see it happening here. It's a tough spot for the Steelers traveling on a short week following an upset road victory against the Colts this past Monday. Pittsburgh has failed to cover seven of its last 10 away contests.

Cordarrelle Patterson gives the Falcons the most dynamic skill position player on the field. He's also a star kick returner. I trust veteran Marcus Mariota against the Steelers' 30th-ranked pass defense more than Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett.

Pickett has a passer rating of 73.5 and a 3-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers' top two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, are both banged-up. Harris will be a go, but Warren's status is up in the air.

Much has been made about the Packers' steep descent this season. But look at the Bears. They are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with five consecutive losses. Injuries and trades have made their defense a laughing stock.

Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears, beating them 24 of 29 times. Rodgers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games versus Chicago.

Rodgers is banged-up. But the Packers finally have their bye next week. So I expect Rodgers to be going all out. He'll be looking at a decimated Chicago secondary that is missing three starters, including both safeties. Chicago has the fewest sacks in the NFC with 16.

Matt LaFleur does one thing consistently right - and that's beat the Bears. He's the only Green Bay coach to win his first seven regular-season games against Chicago.

Justin Fields is expected to start, but he'll be missing his No. 1 wide receiver with Darrell Mooney done for the season with an ankle injury. Fields is a tremendous runner, but the Bears likely will be cautious with him. Fields has an AC-joint shoulder sprain and the Bears have their bye next week.

The Packers also may have finally found a special teams weapon as Keisean Nixon had two 50-plus yard returns against the Eagles last week.

Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him.

The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games.

Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games.

The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game.

Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury.

Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now.

The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division.

The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal.

It's last stand time now for the Packers. So you know Green Bay is going to give everything here. The Eagles can take a defeat. The Packers can not. 
Philadelphia hasn't played well the last two weeks losing at home to the Commanders and nipping the Colts by one point. The Eagles are 9-1. They are solid more than dominant, however. The only above average teams the Eagles have met were the Cowboys and Vikings. 

It's easy to forget, but just two weeks ago the Packers came back from two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys. A loss last Thursday to the Titans erased much of that big win. The Titans happen to be 7-1 in their last eight games with the lone defeat during this span occurring to the Chiefs in overtime. 

Aaron Rodgers isn't having that bad of a season. He's in the top-six in touchdown passes, passing yards and completions. Rookie Christian Watson has come on to score five touchdowns in the last two games giving Rodgers a much needed deep threat. 

The Eagles' offense isn't as potent minus injured tight end Dallas Goedert. The Packers' defense is way overdue to step up. This is their chance. 

Jimmy Garoppolo is becoming dangerous. It's easy to see why when he has a good offensive line and skill position players Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to surround him. The 49ers are averaging 30.3 points in their last three games.

The Saints have been without their best cornerback, Marhson Lattimore, and two best defensive linemen, Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. New Orleans is surrendering an average of 28.7 points in its last seven games if you discount a freakish shutout of the Raiders.

I don't see the Saints stopping the 49ers. The Saints should be able to contribute their share of points, too. Andy Dalton is off his best game of the season completing 21 of 25 passes for 260 yards and three TD's against the Rams last week.

Justin Herbert is back on track and has most of his weapons back. Kyler Murray is ready to go after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. He has Deandre Hopkins and could have Marquise Brown. Also back for the Cardinals is James Conner, their best running back. Conner is a touchdown machine with 22 TD's in his last 23 games.

Neither defense is any good.

So this total is too low because it's not fully accounting for these factors.

The Chargers allow 25.8 points a game. That ranks 29th. They rank 30th in run defense and 25th in defensive total yards. The Cardinals' attack is far more dynamic with Murray instead of short-armed game manager Colt McCoy.

The Cardinals just surrendered four touchdowns to the 49ers. They are on a short week after playing in high altitude this past Monday in Mexico City. The Cardinals entered this week ranked tied for second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points a game.

It's a nice bonus for the Jets if Justin Fields can't make the start for the Bears. That would force the Bears to start Trevor Siemian, a career journeyman and noted stiff.

But even if the dynamic Fields plays, I like the Jets to beat the Bears by more than a touchdown now that they've made the quarterback switch from ineffective, morale-killer Zach Wilson to Mike White.

The Jets have close to a Super Bowl-caliber defense. But Wilson has held New York's offense hostage with his inaccuracies, lack of big plays and interceptions. The Jets have good receiving weapons, especially with Corey Davis expected back to join Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims.

White has proven himself. Just ask the Bengals. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns in his first start last season leading the Jets to a 34-31 win against the AFC champion Bengals.

The bar is much lower against a Bears defense that has surrendered an average of 35.5 points in their last four games.

As well as Fields has played recently, it hasn't translated to victories because of the Bears' porous defense. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven games, losers of four in a row.

I wouldn't try to buck this total - even though it's low by today's NFL offensive-driven standards - if the quarterback matchup was going to be Trevor Siemian versus Zack Wilson. But it's not.

There's a chance Justin Fields plays and Wilson definitely won't start, replaced by Mike White, who threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals in his first start last year.

Fields has accounted for 14 touchdowns in his last four games. The Bears are averaging 29.6 points during their past five games. The Bears' first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has gotten more comfortable in directing a more aggressive Chicago offense. Even if Siemian gets the call, the Bears' passing attack has improved. Siemian is a veteran, who might be a more accurate passer than Fields.

The Jets' defense isn't expected to have defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. That would be a boost to David Montgomery.

The key here, though, is the Jets' offense should be energized with the quarterback switch away from the egregious Wilson. The Bears' defense has become dreadful after dealing away their best defender, linebacker Roquan Smith. Chicago has allowed 20 or more points in eight of its last 10 games. In their last four games, the Bears have permitted 27, 31, 35 and 49 points.

The Dolphins went into their bye last week off an impressive 39-17 victory against the Browns. But in their previous six games, the Dolphins lost to the Bengals, Jets and Vikings and beat the Steelers by 6, Lions by 4 and Bears by 3. So I find this spread to be inflated.

Yes, the Dolphins are good this season. But they have flaws. They are not a great team that can cover two touchdowns. Great teams don't squeeze past the Steelers, Lions and Bears by a combined winning margin of 4.3 points.

Miami might not have Raheem Mostert and their kicking game could be in trouble. Jason Sanders ranks fourth-from-the-bottom in field goal percentage accuracy and punter Thomas Morstead has been dealing with illness.

The Texans should get a boost with a quarterback switch from David Mills to Kyle Allen. Mills has been terrible on the road. Allen is a career backup, but he might provide a spark here. He has Dameon Pierce to rely upon. Pierce leads all rookie running backs with 780 yards rushing and 915 scrimmage yards.

The Bucs enter this matchup at their most healthy and fresh off a bye. The Browns were hoping to hang on until Deshaun Watson could take over. But that didn't happen. Cleveland is 3-7 with six losses in its last seven games.

Morale is bad with the Browns. So is their defense, which ranks tied for 31st giving up 26.9 points a game. Tom Brady has the passing attack to take advantage along with an upgraded ground attack thanks to more usage from outside threat Rachaad White, who is now properly factored into Tampa Bay's offense.

Tampa Bay has a top-six defense and its offense that has the second-fewest turnovers. Cleveland has only eight takeaways, which ranks 29th. The Buccaneers held Seattle's star rookie running back Kenneth Walker to 17 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago in their last game. Walker had averaged 102 yards rushing during his past five games.

This doesn't bode well for Nick Chubb, who the Browns heavily rely upon. The Buccaneers are going to be tough to run against with the Browns losing emerging center Ethan Pocic to a knee injury.

If you're impressed with the Vikings' 8-2 record don't be. Minnesota has a losing point spread record and has been outscored on the season.

The Vikings were exposed at home by the Cowboys, 40-3, last Sunday. Minnesota lost its best offensive lineman, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, in the second quarter of the game due to a concussion. The Cowboys recorded seven sacks on 30 Minnesota dropbacks.

The Patriots have a dominant defense, too, ranking No. 2 in giving up the fewest points per game at 16.9. New England ranks No. 2 to Dallas in sacks with 36. Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks. Kirk Cousins lacks mobility. He's going to have trouble against New England's pressure, well-coached defense.

New England has a pair of good running backs and receiving depth. The Patriots produced nearly 300 yards of offense against a much superior Jets defense last week in cold weather. Now the Patriots are in a dome facing a banged-up Minnesota secondary.

Josh Allen and Co. won't have an easier defense to go against all season than Detroit. The Lions give up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also are likely to be minus their best defensive backfield player in cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is in concussion protocol. 

The Bills just played at Ford Field this past Sunday when their game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit. A fast track makes the Bills' up-tempo offense even more potent. 

The Lions have won three in a row beating the Giants, Bears and Packers. The Bills are a huge step up for them. Buffalo is overdue to play better after not producing an "A'' level game during the last four weeks since beating the Chiefs. 

Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when Jim Caldwell was its coach. Don't look for the Lions to end that streak here. 

The Chargers nearly upset the Chiefs back in Week 2. If it weren't for a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown, the Chargers just might have done it before losing, 27-24.

Fast forward nine weeks later. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. The Chargers are mediocre, heavily weakened by key injuries especially on offense where their best offensive lineman and two top wide receivers have been out.

This, along with a rib injury, has greatly reduced the effectiveness of Justin Herbert. He has just eight TD passes with five interceptions in his last seven games. Herbert doesn't have the weapons to keep up with sizzling Patrick Mahomes, who has emerged as the MVP frontrunner with 17 TD passes in his last six games. Kansas City is averaging an NFC-best 30 points per game.

The Chargers' five victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons. Those teams are a combined 13-32-1.

The Chargers have little home field in the crowded LA sports market. They are 0-3 ATS during their past three home games with two of those defeats occurring to the Jaguars, 38-10, and 37-23 to the Seahawks.

The Bengals and Joe Burrow were extremely rusty opening week when they met the Steelers. The Bengals lost the turnover battle, 5-0. Yet it took the end of overtime for the Steelers to pull off a 3-point victory and only because Evan McPherson missed an extra point near the end of regulation and a chip shot field goal in overtime because the Bengals had lost their long snapper to an injury during the game.

Now the Bengals enter the rematch rested off their bye and in revenge mode.

Burrow has gotten better pass protection since that Week 1 matchup. The result is Cincinnati is 5-2 in its last seven games.

Ja'Marr Chase remains out. Burrow still, though, has enough weapons and the Bengals get back stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader, who has been out since Week 3 with a knee injury. He's the Bengals' top run defender. That's huge because rookie Kenny Pickett needs a ground game to set up his passing.

Pickett is an overmatched rookie, who has a 2-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked way too many times.

The last time an 8-1 team was a home underdog was 1976. But that's the case here with the Vikings. Yet I say Dallas deserves to be favored.

The spot sets up well for the Cowboys and the Vikings are not nearly the dominant team that their 8-1 record may indicate.

The Vikings have a losing ATS mark, rank fourth-from-the-bottom in defensive total yards and have a banged-up vulnerable secondary. They also could be without their offensive left tackle, Christian Darrisaw. That could loom large as the Cowboys lead the NFL with 35 sacks.

The NFC North is so weak the Vikings have a chance to clinch the division before December. So there is no urgency for the Vikings here unlike the Cowboys, who are off a blown two-touchdown fourth quarter lead against the Packers.

The Vikings still are on Cloud 9 after their near-miracle 33-30 road victory against the Bills last Sunday in what had to be the most insane game of the season. Minnesota rallied from a 27-10 second-half deficit.

Dallas beat the Vikings at Minnesota last season behind backup QB Cooper Rush. Dak Prescott is back now. The Vikings could be down two of their three best cornerbacks.

The Cowboys have covered 10 of their last 13 road games going 5-1 ATS when favored in those matchups.

It may seem surprising the Cowboys are road chalk against 8-1 Minnesota, but it's completely justified and the right side.

Here are three major reasons why I like the Rams here: 1. Coaching mismatch. Sean McVay versus Dennis Allen, who isn't qualified to be a head coach. 2. Quarterback mismatch. Matthew Stafford is miles ahead of Andy Dalton even without Cooper Kupp. 3. Aaron Donald getting to play Godzilla against a battered Saints offensive line likely to be without three starters. 

The Saints are 1-4 in their last five games. Their defense is down their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, their top pass rusher, Cameron Jordan, and their most active linebacker, Pete Werner. 

The Rams have a battered offensive line, too. But McVay is sharp enough to effectively game plan having Stafford to take advantage of the Saints' key injuries. 

The Saints continue to trot out Dalton, who always has been mistake-prone but is even worse now that he's on the downside of his career. New Orleans has the worst turnover differential in the NFL at minus 12. 

It's taken only two years, but Robert Saleh has built a strong Jets defense. New York is giving up just 15.8 points per game during its last six games.

The Jets just held the powerful Bills to 17 points in their last game two weeks ago. They certainly are capable of holding the Patriots' pop-gun attack to 17 points or fewer, too.

Defenses should dominate this matchup. Both teams are coached by defensive gurus and have had two weeks to prepare. Each team has an inexperienced, game-manager for a quarterback.

The Jets sacked Mac Jones six times in the first meeting. They held New England to 3.8 yards a play and 288 total yards of offense. The Jets' defensive line holds a huge edge against the Patriots' mediocre-to-bad offensive line.

Bill Belichick has been dominating inexperienced quarterbacks such as Zach Wilson for a long time. The Patriots picked off Wilson three times in their victory two games ago. The Patriots feature the NFL's sack leader, Matt Judon. He has 11 1/2 sacks.

The weather could work against these offenses, too, with the forecast being for temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 15-17 mph range. That should ensure plenty of running plays.

The Titans have been winning ugly all season. It catches up to them here traveling on a short week with multiple defensive injuries facing a rejuvenated Packers team that saved their season by coming from two touchdowns behind in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys this past Sunday.

This is a huge game for Green Bay. The Packers can't take a loss here with their next game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Titans can be excused if they don't match the Packers' intensity. The Titans have a two-game lead in the very weak AFC South Division.

The timing of this road Thursday game is very bad for Tennessee. The Titans are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now especially on defense. They were outplayed but managed to beat the bumbling Broncos this past Sunday despite missing five defensive starters, including star tackle Jeffery Simmons and big-play linebacker Bud Dupree. The Titans then suffered three more defensive injuries against Denver.

The Packers blew out the Titans, 40-14, at home two seasons ago when the teams last met.

The 49ers are at full strength on offense for the first time this season. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have to be Joe Montana with Kyle Shanahan calling plays and backed by elite weapons Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. 

The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points a game. 

Fresh off their bye, the 49ers also are healthier on defense, too. This doesn't bode well for the Chargers, who remain extremely banged-up offensively.

Justin Herbert has become just a glorified game manager minus his star left tackle and without his two best wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Herbert has not completed a pass longer than 20 yards during his last three games. He's also gone four consecutive games without reaching the 300-yard passing mark. 

The Chargers haven't defeated a good team yet. Their victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons with three of those wins

The Raiders have been on the road in their last two games and those two losses - getting shut out by the Saints and blowing a 17-0 lead to the Jaguars - have put enormous heat on Josh McDaniels and the entire Las Vegas franchise. 

But remember the last time the Raiders were home, they rolled past the Texans, 38-30. Houston is the worst team in the AFC. The Colts are at Houston Texans' level now. So against the worst at home, the Raiders should be trusted. 

The Raiders actually were a playoff team last season. They've blown three 17-point advantages. If they would have held on in those games their record would be 5-3 and we would be talking about a much higher point spread here. 

Nearly all of this handicap, however, is a fade on the Colts. You have to wonder if Colts owner Jim Irsay has gone on tilt, or made the decision to tank. Jeff Saturday, who has never been a coach on any level, inherits an offense that ranks last in scoring at 14.7, 30th in yards per play and 30th in rushing. The Colts have committed a league-high 17 turnovers. 

Bill Walsh would have trouble coaxing points out of this Colts offense, which has a stiff at quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, behind an offensive line that has deeply regressed. Jonathan Taylor is hobbled by an ankle injury. The play-calling falls upon Parks Frazier, who like Saturday, is totally inexperienced in this capacity. 

The Raiders aren't good defensively. They don't have to be against this foe. 

Davante Adams had a big first half last week. McDaniels knows enough offense to realize the Raiders just need to keep feeding Adams and run Josh Jacobs to take care of the Colts, who are without their best big-play defender, injured Shaquile Leonard. 
Las Vegas is in must-win mode now, trailing the Chiefs by four games in the AFC West Division. 

A total of less than 41 in today's NFL, which is unfairly skewed toward offense and scoring, is a very low bar.

Both the Texans and Giants have excellent running backs and each defense has trouble stopping the run. The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL by far yielding more than 180 yards a game on the ground. They have to deal with Saquon Barkley, who has regained his stature as a top-five running back and will have fresh legs following New York's bye last week.

If I could pick one player to have in fantasy football this week at running back it would be Barkley. The Giants also are getting healthier at wide receiver. If you discount the Texans holding the Jaguars to six points, Houston would be giving up an average of 28.2 points in their last five games.

The Texans should contribute to this total going Over riding Dameon Pierce, who is averaging 23.3 carries and 110 yards rushing during his last six games. The Giants are permitting 5.4 yards per carry, ranking 25th in run defense. There's the possibility the Texans get back Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins this week. They are the Texans' top two wide receivers.

I'm taking the Broncos even anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back for the Titans. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a third straight game. Willis is averaging 67.5 yards passing on 11 completions in his two games mainly throwing dump-off passes. He can't connect with anyone downfield. The Titans haven't been very good passing with Tannehill either.

Tennessee hasn't reached 260 yards of total offense in five of its eight games. The Titans are totally dependent on Derrick Henry. This isn't lost on the Broncos, who even without traded Bradley Chubb have a well above average defense giving up 16.5 points a game, which is No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense.

The Broncos have finally shown a little life offensively. Denver was on a bye last week giving Russell Wilson additional time to heal and get more in sync with his new team. While the Broncos were resting, the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime last Sunday night. Tennessee's defense was on the field for 91 plays in that loss.

The Titans are going to be missing their best defensive front-seven player, Jeffery Simmons, along with linebackers Bud Dupree and Zach Cunningham.

Tennessee already is sailing toward the AFC South Division title. The Titans have no competition in their weak division. This game means far more to the Broncos. So Denver should have its intensity while the Titans have a fatigue factor working against them.

The Bills don't need Josh Allen to beat the Vikings, who are a bogus 7-1. Only one of Minnesota's wins has been against a winning team with six of its victories occurring in one-score games. The Vikings have a losing ATS mark. The one time the Vikings had a step-up game, they lost 24-7 to the Eagles.

Already the Vikings have built up an insurmountable five-game lead in the loss column in their NFC North Division. I doubt the Vikings get as motivated for this game as the Bills will at home off a terrible loss to the Jets.

I want Buffalo in this spot and I'm fine with Case Keenum, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and is surrounded by weapons in the Bills' high octane offensive attack. Keenum is experienced and proficient in Buffalo's spread type offense. I don't see the Bills, with their aggressive nature, dialing things back.

Not only is the spot bad for the Vikings catching the Bills off a division loss, but the setting isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings are a dome team traveling into Buffalo in mid-November with the forecast calling for possible snow showers and wind in the 10-20 mph range.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the NFC. So it's a no-brainer for me to lay less than a field goal against them especially when the Panthers are going to start P.J. Walker at quarterback. 

Walker's 317-yard passing performance against the Falcons two weeks ago was an outlier. Walker's ability is far closer to the 3-of-10 passing for nine yards and two interceptions he had against the Bengals last Sunday. The Falcons rank last in pass defense. Walker won't be able to exploit that.

I'm not a fan of Baker Mayfield. But at least he's a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, albeit a lower class one. Walker isn't. Even a fresh Sam Darnold would be a better choice than Walker in attacking such a vulnerable secondary. 

The Falcons aren't very good either. But they do run the ball well with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Marcus Mariota, who is more of a rushing threat than a passer. The Bengals gashed the Panthers on the ground for 241 yards, averaging 6.2 yards on 39 runs. If you can't stop the run, you're going to have trouble with Atlanta. 

Not only did the Panthers trade their best offensive chip, Christian McCaffrey, but they have injuries to three of their key defenders: pass rushing star Brian Burns, underrated lineman Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn. I'm expecting Burns and Brown to play - it's a bonus if they don't - but the Panthers still are going to have problems stopping the Falcons' ground game. Carolina has surrendered 79 points during the last two weeks. 

The fallout in Carolina from its one-sided loss to Cincinnati is more coaching turnover. Interim coach Steve Wilks fired two defensive coaches, Paul Pasqualoni and Evan Cooper. The Panthers are a rudderless team right now. They don't have the quarterbacking, nor run defense, to beat the Falcons even at home on a Thursday night. 

The buy sign is on for the Monday night home underdog Saints following their best game of the season, a 24-0 home win against the Raiders last Sunday. The Saints held the sometimes potent Raiders to 183 yards of offense.

A key for the Saints is an improved ground attack spearheaded by Alvin Kamara that is averaging 171 yards rushing in their last four games.

The Ravens have been favored in three of their last four games and failed to cover each of those times.

Baltimore shored up its defense trading for Roquan Smith. However, the Ravens are down their two best receivers with tight end Mark Andrews and wideout Rashod Bateman both out. It' not likely Gus Edwards is going to play either.

I'm going to lay this dead number anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back this week. Even if Tannehill is under center, I don't see the Titans staying within two touchdowns of the Chiefs. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a second straight game because he's nowhere near being ready as an NFL starting quarterback.

The Titans were able to get away with Willis last week because they could totally rely on Derrick Henry against the Texans, who have the worst run defense by far in the NFL.

Kansas City has the No. 3 rush defense in the NFL. The Chiefs will be loading the box to stop Henry. The Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare having been idle last week. No coach is better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 19-3 during the regular season after being off the week before.

The Chiefs won't lack incentive. The Titans embarrassed them, 27-3, in Tennessee last year.

The Titans don't have the makeup to play from behind because their wide receiving group is so weak.

The Packers aren't finished yet. Lose here to the 1-6 Lions, though, and they are done. I don't see it happening.

Aaron Rodgers gets to face the worst defense in the league. The Lions give up the most points and yards per game. 

Green Bay's defense is capable of playing far better, especially against the run. The Lions hoisted up the white flag when they dealt away tight end T.J. Hockenson. Their best skill position player, D'Andre Swift, isn't physically right slowed by an ankle injury. 

Dan Campbell is a likely lame duck coach. He's compounded his team's serious defensive woes with terrible on-field coaching decisions. He could be the worst in-game coach in the NFC. 

We know the Jaguars are terrible again this season, losers of five in a row. 

But are the Raiders as bad as their 2-5 record? Their performance in a 24-0 road loss to the Saints this past Sunday might have been the worst of any team all season. It's called into question the merits of Josh McDaniels' coaching ability and Derek Carr being anything better than just mediocre. 

Prior to that shutout loss to New Orleans, the Raiders had outscored their opponents by 13 points. Their losses were by five points to the Chargers, six points to the Cardinals in overtime, two points to the 5-2 Titans and one point to the 5-2 Chiefs. 

Las Vegas was a playoff team last season. If the Raiders win here, they have a chance to reach .500 as their next two games are against the Colts and Broncos. 

Carr has been disappointing for much of the season. But Trevor Lawrence has yet to turn the corner. The Jaguars' lone decent skill position player is emerging Travis Eitenne. 

The Raiders afford Carr more weapons than Jacksonville with Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs - the NFL's fourth-leading rusher - Hunter Renfroe and tight end Darren Waller, who could play for the first time in several weeks. I rank Daniel Carlson has the second-best kicker in the league behind only Justin Tucker. 

If you discount their last five games against the Colts, the Jaguars would be 4-24 ATS in their last 28 games. 

There's also a situational element to this game. The Raiders stayed in the South following their defeat to New Orleans. That was a smart move. The Jaguars had to come back from London following a disappointing loss to the Broncos. So they have to deal with jet lag. 

The perception is the Chargers are an explosive team. They were at the start of the season before injuries struck. Now they aren't. Take away star pass protector left tackle Rashawn Slater, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Justin Herbert is left playing dump off to Austin Ekeler. Herbert also is banged-up with a painful rib injury. He's thrown only six touchdown passes in his last five games.

The Falcons have cornerback injuries. But Herbert is just left with inexperienced wideouts and tight end Gerald Everett. So he's not going to be able to exploit that as much as the oddsmaker anticipates with this high of a total.

Atlanta is being looked upon as a high scoring team off a 37-point game against the Panthers. The Falcons, however, were averaging 20.7 points during their previous four games. They rank 29th in passing and 25th in total yards.

The Falcons are not about super-talented Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Instead they feature mundane reserve running backs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in Arthur Smith's caveman run-oriented, eat-up-clock slow moving offense. Marcus Mariota has been in the NFL for eight years. He's still more feared as a runner than passer.

This one is priced wrong so I'm going Under.