Baltimore's defense is down from past editions. Peyton Manning is still an elite quarterback. Manning is front and center in the MVP discussion with 30 touchdown passes, including three per game during seven of his last 10 games.

The Broncos are averaging 28.8 points a game, second-best in the NFL. Denver is going to get its points against the Ravens' injury-riddled 24th-ranked defense. The Broncos have gone over in seven of their past 10 road games.

The key here is if the Ravens can keep up on the offensive end. I say they will especially with the change of offensive coordinators from old-school Cam Cameron to Jim Caldwell, a strong proponent of the hurry-up offense.

The Ravens' hurry-up offense is much more effective at home. Joe Flacco is an elite quarterback - when playing at M&T Bank Stadium where he's completed 63.3 percent of his passes this year for 1,800 yards with an 11-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ray Rice is running well, too, gaining 291 yards on his last 50 carriers for an average of 5.8 yards per carry. Baltimore has gone over in five of its six home games this season.

I see the Texans redeeming themselves defensively at home after surrendering 42 points to the Patriots on the road this past Monday night. Houston's defense is not as bad as it has looked the past several weeks.

The Colts are not a strong scoring team on the road, especially when playing outdoors on grass. Andrew Luck has thrown eight touchdown passes away from Lucas Oil Stadium and been picked off 13 times. His quarterback rating is down around 20 points when playing on the road.

The Colts lack a decent ground attack and are down two offensive line starters. The under has cashed in 10 of the Colts' past 11 division games.

Houston is going to be contend to mainly run the ball. The Texans need to get Arian Foster going again. Foster is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush on his last 123 carries. The Texans are a conservative lot and aren't going to run up a score, or throw late if owning a huge lead, since they play Indianapolis again in two weeks.

The Eagles pulled out a dramatic victory against Tampa Bay on the final play of the game this past Sunday on a Nick Foles touchdown pass. But don't think Philadelphia's offense is very good - because it isn't.

Only once in their last 11 games have the Eagles scored more than 23 points. Much of their firepower is gone with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson all out. Foles is a rookie playing behind a makeshift offensive line that has already had nine different starters.

Cincinnati leads the league in sacks with 42. After some early season struggles, the Bengals' defense is playing at a high level giving up an average of 12.4 points a game during their last five games.

The Bengals are more explosive than the Eagles mainly thanks to A.J. Green. But Cincinnati is going to be very vanilla on offense with the short turnaround time limiting their game and practice preparation, especially being the traveling team. The Bengals also don't want to show anything new in a non-conference matchup against a 4-9 NFC opponent since they are playing division rival Pittsburgh the following week in a game that is much more important.

These stand-alone Thursday games have gone under 75 percent of the time this season as teams don't have the normal amount of time to specifically game plan and put in anything special.

The Bengals also could have problems when it comes to field goals. Cincinnati's regular kicker, Mike Nugent, is dealing with a right calf injury. If Nugent can't go then recently-signed Josh Brown would handle the kicking. Brown is over-the-hill and a dome kicker. There won't be any wind problems, according to the weather forecast, but Brown could have trouble on a grass field.

The Eagles' defense finally showed signs of life last week holding the Buccaneers to 21 points, which was six points under their scoring average. Andy Reid has made several defensive coaching changes. Players are competing for their jobs and their future.

There hasn't been a more disappointing pair of cornerbacks than Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both are capable of playing much better and that could come here at home on the national stage. The Bengals are weak at wide receiver once you get past Green.

On the surface, this seems like an equally big game for both sides. But it actually means more to New England.


If the Patriots lose they would trail Houston for best overall record in the AFC by three games with three left and would have lost the head-to-head tiebreaker. Denver is in the picture for best record in the AFC at 10-3, but the Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos.


The Texans can lose this game and still control their own destiny as far as getting homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They would have to win out, but that's very possible with their last three games against Indianapolis twice and Minnesota.


Matchup-wise and situational-wise the Patriots are the right side, too. New England leads the NFL in scoring and total offense. No team is better on third down or in scoring touchdowns in the red-zone. They also don't turn the ball over. Not once have the Patriots lost the turnover battle in any game this season.


Houston's defense is down from what it was at the beginning of the season due to injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. The Texans are allowing 352 yards during their past three games and an average of 26 points. They should have lost to Detroit and Jacksonville during this recent span.


New England has won 28 of its last 30 regular-season home games. The Patriots are much more experienced in marquee nationally televised matchups. They are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night games winning by an average of more than 20 points per game. The Texans have yet to earn that kind of trust failing to cover on Monday night against the lowly Jets, laying an egg at home against Green Bay on a Sunday night game and sneaking past a generous Lions squad on Thanksgiving.


The Patriots also have a history of playing their best late in the season. New England is 19-1 in the last four games of the regular season since 2007.

Playoff-wise, the Lions are dead. But they're very much alive for this matchup against the division rival they want to beat the most.

The Lions should have beaten the Packers three weeks ago leading by six with less than two minutes left. Detroit wants revenge and to stop hearing about its ghastly 21-game losing streak at Lambeau Field.

The Packers are going to do more running than usual in this matchup for two reasons. The weather isn't going to be pleasant with temperatures in the 20's, a slight wind and scattered snow showers. The other reason Green Bay will run more is to protect the health of Aaron Rodgers, who already has been sacked 39 times not to mention taking a huge amount of hits after passing the ball. The Packers won't be running because they're good at it.

Green Bay has been forced to switch up its offensive line because of a season-ending injury to Bryan Bulaga. The latest change is rookie offensive tackle Don Barclay probably making his first NFL start. The Lions have two major strengths - their top-rated passing attack and an excellent defensive front seven. The Packers are going to have problems handling Detroit's defensive tackles and always have difficulty, as do most teams, keeping Calvin Johnson in check.

The Packers, remember, are still without their best defensive player, Clay Matthews, and their defensive backfield leader, Charles Woodson.

Detroit's secondary is much better with safety Louis Delmas back in the lineup. The Packers are without Jordy Nelson, arguably their best wide receiver.

It would not be shocking in the least if the Lions ended their long losing streak in Green Bay with a win on national TV after blowing three straight home games after leading during the final two minutes in each of them.

When is the betting market going to realize that the Saints aren't very good? This is not their season and this game will emphasize that. The Giants are much better than they showed this past Monday night in losing to the Redskins. Yet so far the money has been on the Saints.

The Saints rely way too much on Drew Brees. They are forced to do this because their defense is 30 yards worse than the next closest defense. The Saints can't rush the passer, tackle well or cover. Despite having the magnificent Brees, the Saints have lost the yardage battle in all but two of their games. Only once in the last six games have the Saints surpassed 385 yards in a game.

And now Brees hasn't been so good because injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of New Orleans' offensive line. Brees has been under more pass rush pressure than he's used to as he's been sacked six times in the last two games. Brees has been picked off seven times in the last two games. The Giants' front four rushes the passer as well as any in football. New York is 12-3 when getting three or more sacks in a game. That's very likely to occur here.

Not only is Brees going to be facing a premier pass-rushing unit, but he's outdoors, on a slow track in colder weather than what his offense is used to and might have to deal with rain. The Saints are not built for these conditions. They operate far better at home on turf in a climate-controlled environment.

The Giants have a history of stepping up this time of year as they make a Super Bowl run. The Saints are leaderless and have chemistry issues knowing they don't have a realistic chance of making the playoffs.

You would have to go to October of 2009 to find the last time Baltimore lost two games in a row. The Ravens have been that consistent. I don't buy them as an underdog to the Redskins, a mediocre NFC team that is overrated because they're off a Monday night victory and Robert Griffin III is so exciting capturing the imagination of the public.

The Ravens have played much better at home, but they are a playoff-tested team - one of the four best in the AFC - that is used to big pressure December games. The Ravens' offense isn't flashy away from home. But they don't need to be to beat a Washington defense that ranks 29th in total defense, has the second-worst third-down mark in the league and is second to last in yards allowed after the catch while ranking 31st in pass defense. Look for the Ravens to ride splendid Ray Rice and for Joe Flacco to effectively pick his spots against a weak Washington secondary.

Griffin isn't putting up the huge numbers he was earlier in the season as defenses know how to prepare better for him. The Ravens have a veteran stop unit and catch Washington on a short week after its huge division win against the Giants. Washington is 0-7 the past seven times the week after meeting the Giants.

The Redskins are 3-9 in their last 12 home games and their coach, Mike Shanahan, is a disgusting 4-21 ATS as a home favorite. Baltimore has covered three of the past four times it has been a 'dog during the past two seasons.

The Falcons aren't nearly as good as their fancy 11-1 record indicates, while the Panthers are much better than their 3-9 record. Carolina has the fourth-best mark in yards per play. The Panthers have such a terrible record because they've lost seven games by six or fewer points.

One of those close defeats occurred to Atlanta when the Panthers had the game won. They were running out the clock, but Cam Newton fumbled. The Falcons recovered and ended up kicking a field goal with five seconds left to win, 30-28. That was back in Week 4 and it took a long time for the Panthers to recover from that devastating loss.

Carolina is playing better going 2-3 its last five games after a 1-6 start. That record should be 3-2, but Brandon LaFell dropped a sure touchdown pass against the Chiefs last week. It looks bad that the Panthers lost to the Chiefs, but Kansas City played its finest game of the season.

Newton has raised his level matching his outstanding rookie season of last year. Newton has a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games without a single turnover during the past three games. The Falcons' biggest weaknesses is stopping the run. Newton has scored 20 rushing touchdowns in his two year NFL career.

The Panthers are 17-7 ATS in Decembers. They have strong motivation to avenge their earlier defeat to Atlanta, which led to the their season spiraling out of control. This is Carolina's Super Bowl, while the Falcons are fat and happy. They also are playing on an off-surface.

Denver has won seven in a row. The Broncos have scored 30-plus points in all but one of these games. Oakland hasn't broken the 17-point barrier in its last three games.

The scary thing is Denver still can play better. Another scary thing is Denver rolled Oakland, 37-6, in Week 4 when the Raiders were playing better. The Raiders have fallen apart losing and failing to cover in their last five games. Except for last Sunday's home loss to Cleveland, which had lost 12 consecutive road games, the Raiders had lost four straight games by double-digits against competition not as good as the Broncos.

Peyton Manning easily picked the Raiders apart in the first meeting throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns. The Broncos never punted in that game. Is there any reason for this matchup to be different when the Broncos are playing well and the Raiders have regressed?

The Thursday home side for Oakland is negated by what figures to be low attendance as the Raiders already have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 10th year in a row. Their fans are fed up. Team morale is down. Carson Palmer has been a huge disappointment. The defense has gone from below average to the worst in the league.

The Raiders have surrendered an average of 37.8 points during their five-game losing streak. They have given up 24 touchdown passes ranking last in points allowed and 28th in yardage given up. This is a turkey shoot for Manning.

Robert Griffin III has made the Redskins a nice story and a dangerous foe. Griffin nearly led the Redskins to an upset of the Giants in the first meeting. It took a 77-yard touchdown from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz with 1:13 left for the Giants to pull out a 27-23 victory in Week 7.

New York went 1-2 following that victory, before destroying Green Bay, 38-10, last week following its bye. Just like last season, the Giants are hitting their stride as the season winds down. The Giants have righted the ship and are at their best on the road where they have covered eight of the last nine times. The Giant have covered 70 percent of their last 55 away matchups.

The Redskins, by contrast, have one of the worst home field records under Mike Shanahan losing nine of their last 11 at FedEx Field.

The Giants hold major edges on defense and at wide receiver. Griffin is why this spread is low. The Giants were caught off guard by how fast and quick Griffin was when they met the Redskins the first time. They won't be surprised this time around.

Because of their outstanding pass rushers on the defensive line, the Giants will be able to successfully have one of their linebackers shadow Griffin, which lesser defenses couldn't afford to do.

Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by three on the road when Byron Leftwich was the Steelers' quarterback. Now the Ravens are home and Charlie Batch is the Steelers' quarterback. He's even worse than Leftwich.

The Ravens have won 20 of their last 21 home games, including the last 15. Their hurry-up offense works much better at home. Joe Flacco has 10 touchdown passes and averages 322 passing yards at home compared to three touchdown throws on the road and a 176-yard passing average.

The Steelers' defense still is good, but it's not nearly dominant enough anymore to hang with the Ravens. The Steelers are going to need to put up points to keep up with the Ravens and that's not going to happen with Batch playing behind a makeshift offensive line and without a strong ground attack.

The Ravens are 5-0 versus the Steelers since 2005 when Ben Roethlisberger doesn't play. This is a kill spot for Baltimore.

First, there's the record. Seattle is 11-1 ATS when taking points the past 12 times it has been an underdog under Pete Carroll, including 5-1 ATS in that role this season.

Second, there's the injury factor. The Bears have a terrible offensive line that has been made worse by a cluster injury problem that occurred last week. Lost for the season is right guard Lance Louis, Chicago's best blocker. The Bears also have multiple injuries at receiver, too, with Alshon Jeffery, Devin Hester and tight end Kellen Davis all hurt. In addition, Matt Forte, Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs are all less at 100 percent after they were injured.

Third is the matchup situation. Seattle should win the battle of trenches on both sides of the ball. Seattle plays outstanding run defense. Its safeties are the most physical in football. The Seahawks also will have both of their very good cornerbacks, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Those two are appealing suspensions for allegedly violating the league's performance-enhancing drug and are thus eligible to play in this matchup.

Seattle's defensive line should not only win the battle of the pits but dominate the Bears' bad offensive line making it impossible for Jay Cutler to get into a comfortable rhythm.

The Seahawks have the edge running the ball with Marshawn Lynch. The Bears' run defense is wearing down. They've surrendered 521 yards on 102 carries during their last four games, an average of 5.1 yards per run. Russell Wilson is getting better as the year goes on. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes with just two interceptions during the last six games.

This is one of the lowest totals of the season. The Seahawks have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less. Points are going to be hard to come by so taking more than a field goal is huge.

The 49ers have the best defense in football and now their offense is improved with the quarterback switch of weak-arm, conservative Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick.

Kaepernick already has nearly half as many big passes, consisting of 20 yards or longer, in two starts than Smith had in nine starts. The 49ers dropped a high number of Kaepernick's throws, but that will get fixed as they make the adjustment from Smith's soft lobs to Kaepernick's harder ball.

San Francisco has held six of its last nine foes to seven points or fewer. The Rams don't have the offense to dent the 49ers' dominant defense, which is giving up the fewest points in the league at 14.1 while ranking in the top five in pass defense and rush defense.

The Rams have only defeated the Cardinals during their last seven games. The 49ers will be taking St. Louis very serious not just because of the division rivalry but because of the team's 24-24 tie in the first meeting.

The 49ers are prime Super Bowl contenders. The Rams are young with many weak areas that need shoring up. They aren't ready to hang within a touchdown of a motivated 49ers team that is playing extremely well going 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Forget that the Saints have beaten Atlanta in 11 of the past 13 meetings, including edging the Falcons, 31-27, in Week 10 thanks to a late goal line stand.

The Falcons are the right play for many reasons not just being the home Thursday team and having a revenge angle. They are a far better team than the Saints, who have only outgained their opponents twice all season.

The Falcons' defense is of the bend-don't-break variety, but it still ranks light years ahead of the Saints' terrible defense. New Orleans ranks among the three worst defensive teams in both passing yardage and rushing yardage. The Saints can't stop the run, which is going to make Matt Ryan even more effective off play-action.

The Saints can only stay with high-octane offenses by scoring a lot of points. Drew Brees, however, isn't as dominant on the road as he is in the Louisiana Superdome. New Orleans also has a cluster injury problem in its offensive line. The Saints just lost right tackle Bryce Harris for the season with a broken leg. They also have two other offensive linemen injured so there's a distinct possibility they could be starting a fourth-stringer at tackle.

Then there's the situational element. The Falcons are thirsting for revenge. They want to show off on national TV against their long-time hated Southern rival. The Saints are down mentally having lost at home to the 49ers this past Sunday in a must win spot. It's very tough for them to travel and play on Thursday after taking on the punishing 49ers.

Obviously the folks behind Monday Night Football didn't see Carolina being 2-8 and Philadelphia being 3-7 when they sceduled this Week 12 matchup.

But the disappointing records of these two teams could play a part in this game going over as neither team has anything to lose so they might as well try to be entertaining.

This is a very low total considering the quality of skill position talent playing and the lack of defense they'll be facing. The Panthers are yielding 24.3 points per game, while the Eagles give up 25.2 per contest. If those numbers hold the combined total would be above 49.

The Eagles defense has seemed to given up permitting an average of 31.7 points in their last four games. Philadelphia doesn't generate a pass rush and its secondary is the most overrated in the NFL. The Eagles have faced four strong quarterbacks during the last four weeks, but the numbers they've given up are absolutely hideous - a combined passer rating of 143.6 and an 11-to-0 touchdown passes allowed to interceptions ratio.

Cam Newton isn't having nearly the rookie season he had last year, but he's far from a stiff. The Panthers go three deep at running back and Newton ranks with Robert Griffin III as the best running quarterback. Philadelphia ranks 19th versus the run. So Newton should be able to effectively pass out of play-action.

The Eagles' offense has suffered due to a cluster injury problem in their offense line. It's a problem, yes. They also won't have Michael Vick nor LeSean McCoy. Yet I still see the Eagles getting enough points to help push this game over. This will be Nick Foles' second start and first at home. He has a big-play receiving threat in DeSean Jackson. Carolina doesn't have an imposing secondary. The Eagles run a fast-break style of offense that is favorable to their quarterback.

The Eagles aren't very good - and that was before losing Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy. Their 3-7 record is justified and even a little lucky as their three victories have been by a combined four points. The Eagles last won in Week 4.

Carolina has even a worse record at 2-8. But the Panthers have been far more competitive. They are far closer to being a .500 team than Philadelphia. The Panthers have blown five fourth-quarter leads. They should have beaten the Falcons, Seahawks, Bears and Buccaneers, four teams with a combined mark of 28-12.

The Eagles' defense has fallen apart surrendering an average of 31.7 points per game during the last four weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have compiled a 143.6 passing mark against the Eagles during this span with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Eagles' offense consists of a rookie quarterback making his second start filling in for Michael Vick, a rookie running back making his first start filling in for LeSean McCoy and a patchwork offensive line consisting of castoffs and draft busts.

The Panthers have 26 sacks led by Charles Johnson, one of the better defensive lineman in the NFL. Nick Foles completed just two passes for five yards to his main wide receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, last week against the Redskins, who rank last in pass defense.

Carolina has three good runners along with Cam Newton, who ranks with Robert Griffin III as among the best two running quarterbacks in the league. The Eagles are 19th versus the run. So the Panther should have a balanced attack working.

It's difficult to predict turnovers, but the Eagles are minus 14 in takeaways/giveaways. The Panthers have lost the ball 11 fewer times than the Eagles.

With more at stake than the Packers, I see the Giants stepping up and playing much better than they have been. This is a statement game for the Giants and is the time of year when they make their move.

The Giants are the Super Bowl champs and have the confidence of knowing they beat the Packers, 37-20, on the road in the playoffs last season. The Giants are anxious to put behind their worst effort of the year in their last game, a horrendous 31-13 road loss to the Bengals. The Giants are off a bye and far healthier than the Packers, who likely will be missing Clay Matthews along with Charles Woodson, Greg Jennings and Bryan Bulaga.

The Packers have been fortunate to beat the Jaguars, Cardinals and Lions in their last three games. They've been just getting by rather than playing well.

This is a tough matchup for Green Bay, which is trying to get by with two offensive line starters playing out of position due to the loss of right tackle Bulaga. The Giants have the dominant pass rushers to take advantage. New York also has the better ground attack and placekicker.

These edges, along with home-field and motivation, are enough for the Giants to win by more than a field goal.

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Only the Cardinals, with their inept quarterback and offensive line play, could go plus 5 in turnover ratio and lose like they did last week against the Falcons.

That was the Cardinals' sixth consecutive loss. The Cardinals are playing far worse now then when they met the Rams in Week 5 as a 4-0 team and were whipped, 17-3. Kevin Kolb was the Cardinals quarterback in that game. Now it's rookie Ryan Lindley making his first pro start - and the Cardinals are wishing it were Kolb again.

The Cardinals have bee held to less than 300 total yards of offense in 70 percent of their games. And that was with Kolb, a legitimate starting NFL quarterback although certain a lower tier one, and with battle-tested backup John Skelton. Lindley didn't come close to beating out either of these two weak quarterbacks.

But even Aaron Rodgers would have trouble putting up points behind the Cardinals' offensive line, which is the worst pass protecting unit in the league.

Arizona has a decent defense, but it's wearing out from being on the field so much. The Rams have the much better quarterback, Sam Bradford, and running back, Steven Jackson, who is averaging 4.3 yards during his past 70 carries. The Cardinals rank a mediocre 20th versus the run. It's a plus if Danny Amendola is able to play. The Rams are 5-2 ATS when Amendola is in the lineup.

Look for Jeff Fisher to have the Rams fired up after they laid an egg at home last week as 3 1/2-point favorites against the Jets. Under Fisher, the Rams are 6-3 ATS when getting points.

The Cardinals have been awful as chalk under Ken Whisenhunt going 1-8-2 ATS,including 0-3 ATS this season.

Greg Schiano has toughened Tampa Bay up and Josh Freeman is riding a hot hand. But let's keep things in proper perspective. The Falcons are a much better team than the Buccaneers.

The Falcons have a top 10 defense, including ranking seventh in pass defense. The Buccaneers are very stout against the run, but they lack a pass rush and rank last in pass defense.

Tampa Bay doesn't have nearly the defensive backfield depth to keep up with the Falcons' up-tempo two-minute offense run to near-perfection in most weeks by MVP candidate Matt Ryan. The Bucs' most talented cornerback, Aqib Talib was traded to New England and Eric Wright isn't likely to play due to an Achilles' injury.

The Falcons have proven that playing on an off-surface isn't a hindrance. They have covered in their last five grass games. Atlanta also is 9-3 ATS in its past 12 road contests. The Falcons were very fortunate to win last week after committing six turnovers. They haven't had back-to-back poor performances all season.

The Buccaneers haven't had a strong home-field advantage covering just 28 percent of the time at Raymond James Stadium in their last 32 home contests.

The Jets temporarily saved their season by defeating St. Louis this past Sunday as a underdog. The Rams are a team the Patriots destroyed by 38 points in London.

The problem for the Jets, though, isn't just a divided locker room and serious chemistry issues. It's lack of talent on both sides of the ball. The Jets just aren't very good. New England is. New York is just 4-9 in its last 13 games.

The Patriots are No. 1 in points scored and total offense. Losing Rob Gronkowski isn't going to hurt them so much because their offense is very diversified. They have a strong enough running attack where defenses just can't tee off on Tom Brady.

The Jets have a pop-gun attack. Mark Sanchez may be the least accurate quarterback in the league and could have the worst set of receivers in the NFL. The Patriots are averaging 47 points in their last three games. There's no way the Jets can keep up that pace.

There's certainly no love lost either between these two division rivals so don't expect Bill Belichick to take it easy on big-mouth Rex Ryan. The Patriots have covered in nine of their last 11 road games against the Jets.

Dallas has failed to cover in its last seven home games and will be missing DeMarco Murray and left tackle Tyron Smith.

Still, the price is right to back Dallas at Cowboys Stadium against a Redskins squad that has a great talent in Robert Griffin III, but is highly flawed in many areas.

The Cowboys have the much stronger defense and the advantage of not having to travel on a short week. Tony Romo has far superior receivers than Griffin. Romo and the Cowboys committed 19 turnovers in their first seven games, but have turned the ball over just once in their past three games.

Romo can easily attack a Washington secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense. The Redskins can't help their weak coverage unit because their best pass rushers have been lost for the season.

The Texans had a scare nearly falling to Jacksonville at home this past Sunday. But the Texans remain in the argument for best team in the NFL. They are scoring the third-most points in the league at 29.3 per game while giving up the third fewest at 18 a game.

Detroit is perceived as being a decent team and tough on Thanksgiving. Neither is true. The Lions are 9-13 in their last 22 games. They are under .500 this year. The Lions have been turkeys on Thanksgiving losing eight straight times.

Matthew Stafford is having a down season with 12 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. The Lions have a below average ground attack and will be missing veteran left tackle Jeff Backus, which makes them even more vulnerable to J.J. Watt.

The Texans can attack the Lions' weak secondary through the air with a fully healthy Andre Johnson or run Arian Foster.

The price is cheap to get the far superior team in the Texans.

The combination of being at home and facing backup quarterback Jason Campbell still doesn't make the 49ers a full touchdown better than the Bears.

Campbell is going to be better than he looked against Houston last week having had a full week to practice with the first team and get his timing down. The 49ers are excellent against the run, but they can be passed on. Campbell is a low tier starting caliber NFL quarterback. The Bears are fortunate to have him as a backup. He can be effective if he has weapons and he has them with Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte.

The 49ers have allowed three runners to run for 100 yards against them in their last four games. As good as San Francisco's defense is it doesn't produce the takeaways Chicago's defense does, nor does it get that many sacks.

The 49ers don't have a dominant passing attack and are very conservative. They are not the right team to lay a touchdown with against another good team.

Once you get a total this low, almost everything has to go right for the under to come in no matter how dominant the defenses look on paper.

I don't see everything going according to script in this matchup.

Both are run-first teams. However, today's rules are so skewed in favor of the offense that defenses, no matter how good, are at a real disadvantage.

Jason Campbell is going to be better than he looked against Houston last week having had a full week to practice with the first team and get his timing down. The 49ers are excellent against the run, but they can be passed on.

It's not a given either that the 49ers will stuff Matt Forte and Matt Bush. Three runners have rushed for 100 yards against the 49ers during the past four games.

Campbell has some short yardage touch and already has developed some chemistry with Brandon Marshall. The Bears' passing attack also will be helped with the return of Alshon Jeffery.

The Bears' defense dominance comes from takeaways rather than completely shutting down foes. Chicago has returned seven of its league-leading 19 interceptions back for touchdowns. Of course a pick-six is alive in this matchup and would be a welcome sight going over the total, but the 49ers are a conservative team.

A dowhhill physical running team such as the 49ers can present problems to the Bears' aging defense, though.

There are some excellent return kick and punt returners in this matchup, too. So special team scores are in the mix.

The Colts have made for a nice feel-good story winning four in a row behind their star rookie quarterback for their sick coach.

The fairy tale, though, ends in Foxboro when the Colts go up against a real offense.

The Colts' four straight victories have come against the following quarterbacks: Brandon Weeden, Matt Hasselbeck, Ryan Tannehill and Blaine Gabbert. If there's a worse starting quarterback in the AFC than Gabbert I've yet to see him. Weeden and Tannehill are error-prone rookies, while Hasselbeck is washed up.

Indy's defense is a work in progress in the first year of a 4-3 after more than a decade of playing Cover-2. The Colts are no match for New England's No. 1 ranked offense, which rates first in scoring and yardage. Tom Brady can burn the Colts' base defense with passes to Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker, or he can turn loose a much-improved Stevan Ridley if the Colts go to any sub-packages. The Colts don't have nearly the depth or talent to hang with the Patriots' high-powered attack.

Andrew Luck already is very good. He's covering up the fact than the Colts don't have a good ground game and have only one decent receiver. That's Reggie Wayne and he's past his prime. Luck has played well inside his home dome with an 88.6 passer rating and 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Away from home, though, Luck hasn't been so good with a 66.2 passer rating and seven interceptions with just two touchdown throws. The Colts have turned the ball over 12 times on the road compared to just three times at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Patriots rarely lose at home as evidenced by their NFL-best 70-14 regular-season in Foxboro since 2002.

Perhaps swayed by a quarterback duel between Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning, the oddsmakers opened this game too high.

The turnover-prone Chargers have become more of a running team, though. Rivers isn't what he was two years ago and his wide receivers aren't as good minus the departed Vincent Jackson.

The Chargers are just a middle-of-the-road offensive club. Their defense, though, ranks seventh in total yardage. They are the second most difficult team to run on. Peyton Manning's play-action passes are less effective if Willis McGahee isn't picking up yards on the ground, which is going to be difficult to do versus the Chargers.

Manning gets all the attention. But Denver has a very solid defense ranking in the top 11 in all the major statistical categories. Von Miller is in the discussion for most effective pass rushing linebacker and Champ Bailey is still a lock-down cornerback.

Rivers is going to be hampered if his left tackle, Jared Gaither, has to miss another week.

The weather in Denver also can turn tricky this time of year.

Things are looking up for the Saints. They've won four of their last five and just dealt the Falcons their first loss. But the Saints are in a tough spot here and they don't have the defense to make up for it.


New Orleans is flying cross-country and will be playing outdoors on grass. The Saints are a dome team that plays faster on carpet. They are 1-3 in their grass games this season, including losing to 2-7 Carolina.


Not only is this a prime letdown spot for the Saints - who probably are overconfident after seeing Baltimore score 55 points on Oakland this past Sunday - but also in a look ahead spot, too. The Saints' next two games after this one are home against San Francisco and a rematch with their arch-rivals the Falcons.


The Raiders laid an egg against Baltimore. But they have a dangerous passing attack with speed on the flanks, perhaps the best kicker/punter tandem and are 4-2 ATS the past six times they've been underdogs.


Drew Brees is a great quarterback inside the Louisiana Superdome. He's not as great away from home. Yet Brees has to be near perfect along with the rest of his offense to carry such a weak defense. The Saints rank either last or second-to-last in total defense, pass defense and run defense. They are giving up more than 28 points per game and are on pace to surrender the most yards in a single season.

The bad news for the Lions is it's desperation time. They are in a must-win situation and facing Green Bay, a team they've lost to 12 of the last 13 times.

The good news for the Lions is they are home and catch the Packers down nine starters and without many of their key players, including Clay Matthews, Bryan Bulaga, Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson.

The Packers have very little pass rush without Matthews. Matthew Stafford has been hot and can take advantage with a clean pocket and going after a youthful secondary minus their leader, Woodson.

The Packers have been flat the last couple of weeks. They were fortunate to enter their bye having faced Jacksonville and Arizona at home. Those are two of the most inept offenses in the NFL. Facing the Lions and dealing with Calvin Johnson is going to be quite a change and challenge for the Packers.

The early betting marketplace activity on this game has been on the under with the thinking being the Eagles' offense will suffer with rookie Nick Foles replacing injured Michael Vick.

The Eagles do have a cluster injury situation with their offensive line. A rookie quarterback behind a makeshift offensive line usually is not a good combo.

But I disagree with the early over/under money on this game. The total now is low enough to play over.

These are two bad defenses. The Eagles are a fast-tempo, passing team built to attack. That's not going to change with Foles behind center. He's a very good prospect who shined during preseason. Foles has plenty of weapons and is operating against the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. The Redskins have given up an NFL-high 20 touchdowns through the air.

The Redskins are yielding 27.6 points per game. The Eagles give up 24.6 points a game. That adds up to a combined 52 points.

Robert Griffin III should have a big game against Philadelphia's faltering defense, which lacks a good pass rush and has an overrated secondary. The reeling Eagles have surrendered an average of 30.5 points during their past four games.

I know. I know. It's hard to get away from those 29 giveaways and unworldly minus 20 turnover ratio when making a case for the Chiefs. Poor coaching doesn't help the argument either.

At some point, though, the turnover ratio has to come down because the Chiefs actually have a decent defense ranking 13th in yardage. That start could come here because the Steelers have created just eight turnovers, which was second-fewest in the league entering this Week 10. The Steelers are even in takeaways/giveaways so they're not particularly opportunistic.

There's a certain randomness to turnovers, even when discussing the Chiefs. So let's turn to matchup, injuries and situation.

Pittsburgh is a good, but far from great team at 5-3. They have lost to the Titans and Raiders, who are a combined 7-12. The Steelers have gained just 78 yards more than their opponents, which comes out to less than 10 yards more per game. Pittsburgh's average win margin is nine points.

The Chiefs are healthier than Pittsburgh. They also have by far the best running back in Jamaal Charles. The Steelers are missing several key players, including Troy Polamalu, offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert and Antonio Brown, their second-best wideout.

Thankfully this is the Chiefs' last stand-alone nationally televised game. So Kansas City shouldn't lack for motivation to show the nation they are better than its 1-7 record and not the worst team in the NFL. Talent-wise, the Chiefs are far better than Jacksonville, the other contender for worst team.

Pittsburgh is off a big upset road win against the Giants. Up next for the Steelers is a Sunday night home game against Baltimore in a division showdown game. That game is far bigger than this one. So even though this is a Monday night game, it's still not the greatest situational spot for the Steelers.

Chicago has a great knack for coming up with touchdowns on defense putting up seven scores. But let's knock off all this talk about the Bears being one of the greatest defensive units ever.

The Bears have a number of name defensive players, but Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers are all past their prime. Chicago has beaten only one team with a winning record and that was the Colts.

Chicago's offense isn't anything special with a leaky offensive line, only one good receiver and a streak quarterback, Jay Cutler, who hasn't been a winner his entire career. The Bears' defense has set up their offense with an NFL-best 28 forced turnovers.

Chicago plays a conservative Cover-2 style defense that chokes off big-plays and takes advantage of impatient, inaccurate quarterbacks. The Texans, though, are a conservative, grind-it-out team that uses the run to set up the pass not the other way around. The Texans can do that because they have the best running back in football, Arian Foster. The Texans don't turn the ball over as evidenced by their league-low six turnovers.

Without the benefit of a turnover edge, I don't see the Bears winning this game. Houston has the more talent - on both sides of the ball. The Bears have surrendered 14 sacks in their last three games. The Texans have only given up 10 sacks all season. J.J. Watt has more sacks than the Texans have allowed.

This is a big road test on the national stage for Houston. But the Texans have won seven of their last eight road matchups and are anxious to redeem themselves on national TV after an embarrassing Sunday night home loss to Green Bay three weeks ago.

Houston also is 10-1 the past 11 times Matt Schuab has been under center.

The Lions are playing well and coming on. It's just the opposite with the Vikings.


Matthew Stafford didn't play well early. But he's a stud and is getting hot completing 68 percent of his passes during the past two weeks for 637 yards and three touchdowns. Christian Ponder is totally going the opposite direction. He's completed 51 percent of his passes for 372 yards in his last three games. This mark is especially alarming since Ponder is a dink-and-dunker. He's been picked off six times in his last four games.


The Vikings' offense entirely consists of Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. The Lions, who have a solid front seven, obviously are going to stack the line against Peterson. Harvin is extremely banged-up and may not play.


Minnesota has dropped three of its last four. Its lone victory during this span was against Arizona at home and the Cardinals outgained the Vikings by 150 yards. The Vikings have lost to the Redskins by 12, to Tampa Bay by 19 at home and last week lost by 10 at Seattle.


The Lions had an easy time beating up on Jacksonville last Sunday. The big news from that game was Mikel Leshoure scoring three touchdowns on the ground. The Vikings have allowed four straight 100-yard rushers. They've given up 663 yards on the ground in their last four games and six rushing touchdowns.


The Lions weren't playing nearly as well as they are now when they lost 20-13 to the Vikings in Week 4. Still, they held the Vikings to two field goals and 227 yards on offense. The Vikings won by returning both a punt AND kickoff back for touchdowns. That's not likely to occur again as the Lions have fixed their special team problems.

Taking advantage of some bad defenses, the Buccaneers are averaging 36 points in their last four games. That's impressive no matter who the competition is. Josh Freeman and Doug Martin have been impressive, too, during this span.

But now the oddsmaker has caught up to Tampa Bay assigning the Buccaneers their highest over/under in a matchup not involving the Saints. This one comes against San Diego, which has a very respectable defense. The Chargers rank No. 4 versus the run and are in the top 10 in total defense and fewest points allowed.

Freeman and Martin are not nearly as talented as their recent numbers indicate. They are due for a huge regression and I see it happening here. Martin is going to find little running room against a Charger rush defense yielding 84 yards per game. The Chargers' secondary is going to be pumped to take on former teammate Vincent Jackson. Keep in mind, too, the Buccaneers are operating without their two best offensive linemen, Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks. Both guards are out for the season. That didn't matter for the Buccaneers against the Raiders last week, but it will in this matchup.

The Chargers' offense is much less effective when left tackle Jared Gaither is out. He's Philip Rivers' blindside protector. Rivers' yardage and passing completion are down when Gaither has missed games. Rivers' touchdown-to-interception ratio is 6-to-3 when Gaither has been in the lineup and 6-to-7 when he's been out. Gaither won't start because he has a sore groin and is unlikely to play.

Tampa Bay's defensive strength is stopping the run. The Buccaneers are giving up 77.1 yards on the ground per game, fewer than any team. The Chargers have gone conservative in light of Rivers' many turnovers. Ryan Mathews is the focal point of their offense. He's a fumbler and not an elite back. San Diego ranks just 26th in total offense. The Chargers also have a history of coming out flat when playing an early game with a three-hour time difference than what they are used to.

The Buccaneers' secondary can be passed on, but Rivers doesn't have the weapons he used to and he has been turnover prone. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is just 12-to-10. The Buccaneers caught a break in that cornerback Eric Wright has yet to be suspended, which may happen after this game.

This is one of the higher totals of the season, but still it's not high enough. This is going to be a first-rate shootout between two very good offenses facing two soft defenses. The Saints are giving up 471.3 yards per game, the most by far of any team. The Saints are believed to be the first team in NFL history to yield 400 yards in each of their first eight games.


The Saints don't generate a pass rush, tackle poorly and have a porous secondary. They haven't been very good defensively at home either giving up 4.9 yards per run, 9.75 yards per pass attempt and allowing road quarterbacks to average 124 for their quarterback rating. New Orleans has managed just three sacks in its four home contests.


Neither team can stop the run ranking last and second to last in the NFC. This should set up effective play-action passing from Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, two of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL this season.


Brees was sharp this past Monday at home against the Eagles. He has his full set of wide receivers. Although Darren Sproles is out, the Saints are deep at running back. Look for Saints tight end Jimmy Graham to have another monster game as star Falcons linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is out with an ankle injury. Weatherspoon was a key in Atlanta's coverage schemes.

The Saints' season. Michael Vick's starting job. A lot is at stake in this matchup and these two desperate teams are going to attack with everything they have.

The Eagles have dumbed-down their offense to try to limit Vick's turnovers. That's not the right approach because Vick is ineffective when playing tentative. The Eagles are going to turn Vick loose to see if they can indeed win with him and live with his reckless style. I see Vick coming up big - aided by going against a defense that is on pace to allow the most yards in a single season.

The Saints can't rush the passer and ranked second to last in pass defense entering this week. Their run defense rates even worse - being last giving up 170.1 yards on the ground. New Orleans is giving up an average of five yards per carry. Only the Bills have given up more rushing touchdowns.

LeSean McCoy is one of the top five running backs in football. So all the pressure isn't on Vick. The Saints won't be able to key just on Vick.

While the Saints are giving up 30.9 points per game, they also are averaging 27.1 points and feature the No. 1 passing attack. Drew Brees is especially effective when playing inside the fast track of the Louisiana Superdome where he's thrown 29 touchdown passes in his last eight home games. The Saints, thanks to Brees, are averaging 37.7 points in these past eight home games.

The Eagles switched defensive coordinators during their bye two weeks ago. They found last week that it's their players and not the scheme that is bad. The Falcons scored on their first six possessions against the Eagles last week. The Eagles don't generate much of a pass rush and their secondary is vastly overrated particularly Nnamdi Asomugha.

The Eagles can't stop high-powered passing attacks, especially on the road on carpet. Don't be intimidated by this big total. It would be a surprise if either of these teams didn't put up at least 28 points.

This is a horrible spot for the Cardinals traveling on a short week following an emotional and physical pounding during Monday night home loss to San Francisco.

The Cardinals' scheme-based defense was exposed by Alex Smith. Now the Cardinals are going to get lit up by Aaron Rodgers, who is as accurate as they come. Rodgers is hot, too, with 11 touchdown passes in his last three games. It doesn't matter if Jordy Nelson can't play a second straight week because the Packers have the deepest set of receivers in the league.

The Cardinals have scored just 36 points in their last five games. They've allowed 33 sacks during this span. They're going to encounter plenty of problems keeping NFC sacks leader Clay Matthews in check.

Arizona doesn't have the necessary quality ground game to keep Rodgers off the field. The Packers were flat last week against Jacksonville. Mike McCarthy will have them playing much better this week heading into their bye next week.

The Cardinals don't have their bye until next week. Their defense is getting worn down after playing eight straight weeks and being on the field most of the time. Traveling with short rest after playing Monday night doesn't help.

Aaron Rodgers is red-hot again with 11 touchdown throws in his last three games. The Packers won't have Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson may sit a second straight week. That won't slow down Rodgers. He has the deepest set of receivers in the league. Randall Cobb is blossoming into a star with increased playing time.

The Cardinals are going to be passing a lot, too. The Packers' secondary is vulnerable without Charles Woodson. Green Bay also has lost two of its three best linebackers.

The weather in Green Bay is going to be fine with sun, temperatures in the high 30s and little wind.

There's a class difference not reflected in the spread. The Bears are a solid team with a strong defense. The Titans are weak on both sides of the ball.

Tennessee quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is past his prime. He's no longer able to drive the ball relying on Chris Johnson and a dink-and-dunk passing attack. That's not going to get the job done against the Bears.

Chicago is giving up just 14.3 points per game and ranks No. 1 versus the run allowing less than 78 yards on the ground per game. The Titans have scored fewer than 14 points in three of the four games when Johnson has failed to rush for 90 yards.

The Bears have the most interceptions in the NFL. They have 23 takeaways, second-most in the league. The Titans are minus 3 in turnover ratio. Making things worse, is Tennessee has a cluster injury problem in its offensive line.

The Titans are giving up 32.1 points per game. Only Buffalo is giving up more per game at 32.4. The Titans have just 11 sacks.

The Bears have dangerous skill position players in Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. Chicago's problem has been pass protection. That won't be an issue, though, against the Titans' non-existent pass rush.

The Bears have won five in a row. They received a scare last week at home against Carolina in a game they should have lost. The Bears rarely are flat two weeks in a row. That game was their wake-up call.

Baltimore is just 5-6 in its last 11 road games, including 1-2 this season. But the Ravens still are much better than the Browns, a young team that tries but has no offense.

Cleveland is 2-12 in its last 14 games. The Browns aren't a good home team either going 5-9-2 ATS.

The Ravens have had two week to stew about being blown out at Houston in their last game. They made the mistake in that game of not running Ray Rice enough. That won't happen here.

The Ravens have key injuries on defense, but they do have back their best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs.

Baltimore has beaten Cleveland nine straight times, going 6-3 ATS. The Browns haven't broken the 17-point barrier during the past four years against the Ravens.

Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL lacking talent and health on both sides of the ball. The Lions have their passing game going. Calvin Johnson is due for a breakout game and could get it against a beaten up Jacksonville secondary.

The Jagaurs have nothing going on offense without Maurice Jones-Drew. He was 41 percent of their offense. Blaine Gabbert is one of the least accurate passers in the NFL and he's playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder.

The Jaguars have been outscored 95-20 in three games at home. They've lost every one of their home games by 17 or more points.

There's a huge class difference not reflected in the point spread.

The Atlanta Falcons are 7-0 and have gained 87 more yards from scrimmage than their opponents.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-6 and have gained 130 more yards from scrimmage than their foes.

I point this out not to argue that the Chiefs are in any way better than the Falcons, but to show that statistically speaking Kansas City isn't that bad.

Talent isn't the problem with the Chiefs. Turnovers, caused by bonehead quarterback play, is the major reason why Kansas City has just one win. The Chiefs have by far the NFL's worst turnover differential at minus 18. Dallas is the next closest team at minus 11.

San Diego has a negative turnover ratio, too. The Chargers have almost been as disappointing as Kansas City. San Diego has lost three in a row, failing to score during the last six quarters. Philip Rivers hasn't been an elite quarterback for the past two years. He hasn't been any better than Matt Cassel when it comes to protecting the ball having turned it over 37 times in his last 23 games.

The two teams met in Week 4 and San Diego won, 37-20. That score is misleading, however. The Chiefs outgained the Chargers, but were done in by a minus-five turnover ratio.

I don't see the Chiefs committing nearly the turnovers they have because this week they have finally figured out that their best offense is featuring Jamaal Charles. Cassel is going to pick his spots and let Charles set him up rather than the other way around, which has been a disaster. I rank Charles as one of the four best running backs in the NFL.

If the Chiefs don't self-destruct they definitely can hang in if not win outright. The Chargers are far from a dominant team, have turnover problems themselves and are just as poorly coached.

It is a disadvantage to travel on a short week, but the Chiefs know the Chargers well being in the same division and having already played them this season. It's actually a plus for the Chiefs to get out of Kansas City where they are being heavily criticized.

The pressure in this matchup is all on the Chargers. Little is expected now of the Chiefs. They'll be motivated to prove themselves with a national TV audience viewing.

The Giants are the superior team and have covered the past seven times on the road, Dallas is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home matchups.

New York also has won and covered the last three times in Dallas. This is a big division revenge spot for the Giants. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since the Cowboys embarrassed them at home in Week 1 on national television.

Eli Manning is 25-5 in October. The Cowboys have lost nine of their last 11 games in October. Tony Romo already has nine interceptions. There's a difference in quality between these two quarterbacks just like there is in the teams.

The Cowboys are constantly overrated year after year. They've won one playoff game since 1997. They are just a .500 team since 2011. The Giants win Super Bowls. The Cowboys just talk about them.

New York's offenisve line has only allowed one sack during the last five weeks. The Giants are healthier than they've been while the Cowboys are dealing with injuries to their center, Phil Costa, and best running back, DeMarco Murray.

The marketplace has overcompensated on this total. It is now too low and worth playing over.

Last year, the Falcons and Eagles combined for 66 points in their matchup. That game was inside the Georgia Dome. This game is outdoors on a slower track. Rain is in the forecast, but it will not be cold weather.

The two offenses are much better than the defenses. The Falcons have become an up-tempo, no-huddle team with an emphasis on passing rather than employing more of a balanced attack. This change in philosophy has helped Matt Ryan become an MVP candidate.

Ryan heads up a very strong passing attack. The Eagles have just seven sacks, second-fewest in the league.

Both teams were idle last week. So there could be some new wrinkles. The Eagles fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo. That was a long overdue move. I expect Philadelphia's defense to improve, but it's not going to happen right away.

The Eagles are going to put up their share of points against an overrated Atlanta defense that is more about coming up with takeaways than being dominant. LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick are dangerous runners. The Falcons rank 28th in run defense and 22nd in total defense. They've been bailed out by 17 takeaways.

Turnovers have been a big problem for Vick. But moving the ball hasn't. It's not too much to ask these two offenses to go over this middle range number. Each scored more than 30 points in last year's game. Even a drop of 7-to-10 points per team gets this total over.

Jeff Fisher has done a great job with the Rams, but this is where his team gets exposed.

The Rams don't have the offense to keep up with high-powered offenses. This was proven this past Sunday when the Packers beat St. Louis, 30-20. The Rams played hard, but they were out-classed. The score wasn't as close as even 10 points because the Rams scored a meaningless touchdown with 15 seconds left.

The Patriots are healthier on defense than Green Bay, have a more stout run defense and the league's No. 1 offense. The Patriots rank first in points per game at 31 and in total yards averaging 436.1.

The Rams have managed just 11 touchdowns in seven games. New England has 10 touchdowns on the ground and 12 more through the air. The Rams have an active defensive front line, but they don't have the secondary depth to stay with all of Tom Brady's targets.

I like Sam Bradford, but he has no chance to be an elite quarterback with his present surrounding cast. The Rams' battered offensive line is full of castoffs and street free agents. Their wideouts are all backup type quality. Steven Jackson, their most productive offensive player, is averaging less than 54 yards rushing per game and has only one touchdown.

Technically this is a home game for St. Louis. However, the matchup is at Wembley Stadium in London. This is a venue the Patriots are familiar with having buried Tampa Bay there, 35-7, in 2009. The Patriots have a strong fan base in England. Traveling to London is a new experience for the Rams, one of the youngest teams in the NFL.

The last thing people are remembering about San Diego is the Chargers blowing a 24-0 lead to the Broncos on Monday. That was inexcusable. But it doesn't alter the fact that there is a class difference between these two teams that isn't being reflected in the line.

Cleveland is 1-12 in its last 13 games. The Chargers are better than the Browns on both sides of the ball. The Chargers are giving up 70 yards less per game than the Browns, who rank 27th both offensively and defensively in yardage.

Philip Rivers isn't the elite quarterback he was two years ago, but he's still far better than rookie Brandon Weeden. Rivers should be more steady and less turnover-prone with a cleaner pocket as left tackle Jared Gaither is expected back. Rivers is 45-for-65 for 563 yards with a 4-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the two games he's had Gaither protecting his blind side.

The Browns rely heavily on Trent Richardson. However, Richardson is dealing with a painful rib injury and is less than 100 percent. There remains the possibility of the Browns holding Richardson out for the next two weeks when they reach their bye.

Historically, the Chargers don't travel well going to the East Coast for an early start. This, though, is negated by the Chargers having been idle last week. The Chargers are sick of hearing about their Monday night choke job. They've had two weeks to stew and prepare for this matchup.

Cleveland is 4-9-2 ATS at home while the Chargers have covered in seven of their last eight games versus AFC opponents.

NFC underdogs have been golden this year cashing an unbelievable 83 percent of the time. I see that trend continuing with this matchup.

The Vikings are improved, but they don't have strong enough quarterback play to cover this big of a number against a Tampa Bay squad that also has improved, particularly mentally under new coach Greg Schiano.

The Buccaneers are 2-4, but their four losses have been by a combined 22 points. That's an average loss of 5.5 points. The Buccaneers have yet to lose by more than seven points in any game. Minnesota has the better straight-up record, but Tampa Bay is better against the spread going 4-2.

The Buccaneers have won the last five in this series, including 24-20 last year at Minnesota. The Bucs came back from a 17-0 halftime deficit.

Josh Freeman and Doug Martin, the Buccaneers' two key skill position players, have been performing better lately. Vincent Jackson is averaging 21.7 yards a catch while proving he is indeed one of the best wideouts in football.

The Vikings rely on Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. The Buccaneers' strength is stopping the run, though, where they rank third allowing just 76 yards per game on the ground.

Christian Ponder, the Vikings' second-year quarterback, has tailed off the last three weeks committing seven turnovers during this span with a 5-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Lacking a ground attack, the Lions have relied on Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson to produce big plays. But that hasn't happened. Stafford has just four touchdown throws, none to Johnson.

Perhaps he's pressing, but Stafford's mechanics have been off. He isn't playing anywhere to the level of his 2011 season. Defenses have been limiting Stafford's big-play ability by playing deep zones. This is the style the Bears favor under Lovie Smith. They may play the Cover-2 better than any team. The Bears went into Week 8 with 17 takeaways.

Detroit has a tough front seven defensively. They can limit the Bears' ground game and apply pressure to Jay Cutler. The Lions' secondary received a big boost with the return of safety Louis Delmas last week. He made a difference in Detroit's upset road win against the Eagles. The Lions can pay more attention to Brandon Marshall since Alshon Jeffery is out.

The Bears' scoring figures have been skewed due to five defensive touchdowns. Chicago's offense still is a work in progress.

There's always the weather factor when playing in Chicago during the fall and winter. The early forecast is for 11-14 mph winds with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Jaguars have had two weeks to stew and be embarrassed about a 41-3 home loss to the Bears.

The Jaguars are making the long trip to the West Coast, but that is negated by being idle last week. As bad as the Jaguars are, they have covered both of their road contests beating Indianapolis and losing to Minnesota in overtime. The close loss to the Vikings is impressive considering how improved Minnesota is.

The Raiders aren't very good either. They have been terrible as a home favorite failing to cover 16 of the last 20 times in that role. Even the Jaguars should be able to pass on the Raiders' depleted secondary, especially with extra time to put in some added wrinkles.

This is no contest. The Patriots have retained their high-powered offense - which is now even better with Aaron Hernandez back - while improving their defense, especially against the run.

The Jets, on the other hand, have regressed. They are missing their best defensive player, Darrelle Revis, and lone playmaker on offense, Santonio Holmes.

Mark Sanchez has failed to complete 50 percent of his throws in four of the last five games. The Patriots are in a foul mood after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead last week against Seattle. They are going to show no mercy to their hated division rival and their loud mouth coach, Rex Ryan.

This is the Jets' first road game in four weeks. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road matchups. The Jets are run-oriented. They can't play from behind and their defense has regressed. The Patriots beat the Jets twice last season winning by an average of 15 points. New England is just as good this year and the Jets are worse.

I'm not impressed with the Buccaneers. They've been outgained in every game except one.

The Saints finally got their much needed first victory beating San Diego at home. The Saints have now had two weeks to rest and game plan for this matchup. Drew Brees remains in his prime and has too many weapons for the Buccaneers to handle, especially with cornerback Aquib Talib suspended.

New Orleans isn't going to have a top-notch defense, but the Saints players are starting to get more used to the schemes and new system brought in by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Saints held the Chargers to 113 yards in the second half.

The Buccaneers have a below average quarterback and ground attack. The Saints just need to pay attention to Vincent Jackson. The Saints will be able to handle Tampa Bay's offense while generating plenty of points themselves taking advantage of Tampa Bay's 31st-ranked pass defense.

The Packers finally are getting it together. Aaron Rodgers is heating up.

The Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season, but they've been playing way above their heads. This isn't going to continue.

Kudos to Jeff Fisher, but the reality is the Rams may have the worst offensive line in the NFL and not one of their wide receivers is starting quality with Danny Amendola out. They aren't going to be able to keep up with Green Bay's high-powered offense, which is even better on carpet.

The Packers are 20-8-1 ATS on the road versus foes with a winning home record.

Minnesota is improved, but the Vikings are not a full touchdown better than Arizona.

The line is climbing because backup John Skelton is the Cardinals' starting quarterback replacing injured Kevin Kolb.

Two things about this. First, the Cardinals win with their excellent defense. Second, Skelton is the Cardinals' most effective quarterback. He beat out Kolb during preseason, but got hurt allowing Kolb to take over the starting spot.

Skelton has better chemistry and statistics with Larry Fitzgerald, who is the Cardinals' key playmaker. It's easy to rip Skelton, but the Cardinals were 5-2 last year during his starts. Two of those victories were against the Eagles and 49ers, teams better than the Vikings.

The Cardinals are not considered a good road team, yet they are 4-3 ATS in their last seven away matchups. Earlier this season they upset the Patriots on the road holding New England to its lowest point total of the season in a 20-18 victory. Last year, the Cardinals beat the Eagles on the road and shoud have beaten the Ravens in Baltimore losing 30-27 after leading 24-6.

The Cardinals have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been a 'dog while the Vikings are 2-7 ATS when favored.

The 49ers have been golden off a loss during the Jim Harbaugh era winning and covering all five times. The 49ers have won most convincingly, too, beating their opponents by a combined 90 points while covering the spread by an average of 15.2 points. The 49ers also are 10-2-1 ATS at home under Harbaugh.

Seattle is 4-11 SU in is last 15 road games, 5-9-1 ATS.

Seattle's doesn't have the offense nor the quarterback to put up many points in this game no matter how strong its defense is. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after posting a big upset home win against New England. So it's also a bad situational spot for the Seahawks.

The 49ers are furious after being embarrassed at home by the Giants. Russell Wilson is far from Eli Manning. He's going to have problems against San Francisco's elite defense.

The 49ers have owned the Seahawks at home winning the past three games by a combined 48 points. Look for a bounce back game from Alex Smith, who before last week had a 30-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

All the early money has been on Denver. But I see the Chargers winning this game. It's a huge home game for San Diego.

San Diego has beaten Denver five of the last six times at home. The Chargers rank third in run defense giving up just 74 yards on the ground.

That statistic would hold more meaning if Denver didn't have Peyton Manning. San Diego has defensed Manning well through the years, though. The Chargers are 5-1 against Manning. Defensive coordinator John Pagano has been one of the architects to this success. The key is applying pressure from the inside on Manning making him uncomfortable in the pocket. San Diego has executed this maneuver well against Manning.

The Chargers have the better balanced offense with Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews, who has rushed for 382 yards in three games against Denver averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He's rushed for at least 120 yards in each of those games.

October hasn't been a good month for Denver. The Broncos have failed to cover in eight of their last nine October games while the Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven AFC matchups.

This is a good time to be playing the Packers and a bad time to be taking on the unbeaten Texans. This is an especially bad matchup for Green Bay.

The Packers are still out of sync offensively. Aaron Rodgers isn't having the MVP season he had last season. Greg Jennings remains out. The running game, not good to being with, is at its lowest point with Cedric Benson out. The offensive line is soft and is going to have problems with J.J. Watt, who is putting up MVP numbers with 8 1/2 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, 11 tackles for losses and eight knocked down passes. Rodgers has already been sacked 21 times. It's scary to think how many more times he would have gone down behind the line of scrimmage if he wasn't highly mobile.

The Packers had problems with Seattle's defense three weeks ago scoring just 12 points. Houston's defense is much bigger and stronger. Green Bay's offensive line has yet to prove it can handle pressure from a very good defense on the road. Rodgers' ability to freeze the defense with play-action is severely restricted without any threat of a ground attack.

Green Bay's defense is improved, but not nearly enough to the point of making crucial stops. The Texans can control possession with their balanced attack. If nose guard B.J. Raji can't play the Packers are in even more trouble defensively trying to stop Arian Foster.

The Texans have won their last nine games with Matt Schuaub under center, winning by nearly 20 points a game. The Texans have covered 11 of their last 14 games. Houston is 4-1 ATS this season covering by an average of nine points in those four covers.

The Texans should be pumped playing a rare nationally televised game at home with this being the Sunday Night Game.

The line has been pushed up a bit with Brady Quinn getting the start. Quinn has never been very good in the NFL. He's been nothing but a conservative, checkdown type of quarterback. But in a matchup where points are going to be hard to come by, Quinn is exactly the type of quarterback the Chiefs need.

Kansas City has outgained its opponents by 415 yards. They've won the time of possession in all but one of their games. This is impressive considering the Chiefs have played a number of strong offenses and quarterbacks in going up against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore and San Diego.

So why are the Chiefs a miserable 1-4? They are a staggering minus 15 in turnover ratio. Matt Cassel was a big reason for that with 13 turnovers, including a terrible goal line fumble last week that probably cost the Chiefs a straight-up win against Baltimore.

Tampa Bay is 1-3. They are more disciplined and better coached than last season under first-year taskmaster Greg Schiano. But the Buccaneers don't have the Chiefs' talent having lost their best offensive lineman, Darvin Joseph, and one of their best defensive players, end Adrian Clayborn, for the season. The Buccaneers have been outgained in every one of their games. If it weren't for a plus 3 turnover edge they likely wouldn't have covered a game all season.

The Bucs are going to be as conservative as the Chiefs with their erratic quarterback Josh Freeman. There is going to be a lot of running and the Chiefs hold a huge edge with Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs rank No. 2 in rushing averaging 180.8 yards per game on the ground. Charles is first in the league in rushing and total yards from scrimmage. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and looks to be 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.

Tampa Bay ranks 27th in yards given up and is 30th in total offense. They don't have the skill position talent Kansas City does.

The Chiefs are better defensively than they've shown. Their offense has put their defense in tough holes due to frequent turnovers. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are one of the better duo pass rushers in the NFL. The underrated Houston has 13 1/2 sacks going back to Game 13 of last year. No player has more sacks during this time frame.

The line has gotten low enough where I confidently can back the Eagles. Michael Vick has been plagued by 11 turnovers. But Vick is in line for a monster game against a porous Lions secondary that is giving up 66 percent completions and does not have an interception.

Free safety Louis Delmas, Detroit's best defensive back, is set to make his season debut after being out following knee surgery. He's far from 100 percent, though.

The Lions have looked like an NFC version of the Raiders - undisciplined, sloppy and arrogant without the results to back anything up. Oh, yes, the Lions' special team coverage units are the worst in football.

The Lions are overrated because of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Defenses have taken advantage of Detroit's lack of a running attack, by playing deep zones thus limiting Stafford's big-play ability. The Eagles are solid against the run and have a top 10 pass defense.

There are numerous disturbing trends surrounding the Lions such as 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven road games, 0-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and 1-11 ATS against NFC competition.

The Eagles are clearly at least a level higher than the Lions, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. The spread has been reduced enough for us to get involved.

These two teams met in Week 2 and there were 61 points scored with the Bengals winning, 34-27.

So why should there be far fewer points scored this time around?

The first factor is the return of suspended Browns cornerback Joe Haden. He ranks with left tackle Joe Thomas as the best player on Cleveland. Haden is close to the class of Darrelle Revis as a shutdown corner. He's one of the few corners in the league who can match up to A.J. Green.

The Bengals have a terrible ground game made worse by losing their most talented running back, Bernard Scott, for the season. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis is a plodder who has fumbled three times the last 40 times he's handled the ball.

Cleveland's bend-but-don't-break defense can frustrate the Bengals. The under has cashed in Cleveland's last seven home games.

The Bengals have had a top-10 defense the past couple of years. It has showed slippage this year. However, in the last two weeks the Bengals have faced second-year pro Blaine Gabbert and rookie Ryan Tannehill. They held Jacksonville and Miami to a combined 27 points. Now they draw rookie Brandon Weeden, who is in that lowest tier QB group with Gabbert and Tannehill.

The Browns have failed to score more than 16 points in three of their five games.

Much of the focus on Tennessee's disappointing season has come on its offense where Chris Johnson continues to be in a funk averaging an embarrassing 2.9 yards per carry and Matt Hasselbeck looks washed up.

What's not being discussed as much is how bad and soft the Titans' defense has become since Jeff Fisher left. The Titans are giving up the most points in the NFL, an average of 36.2 points per game. They rank 29th in yards allowed. The Titans don't generate much of a pass rush, their best linebacker is playing at less than 100 percent and they could have the worst starting safeties in the league.

The Steelers have the weapons to take full advantage especially with a now healthy Rashard Mendenhall. He gives the Steelers a legitimate back and sets up Ben Roethlisberger's play-action passes. Mike Wallace, one of the NFL's most feared deep threats, is in line for a big game.

I expect the Titans to put up their share of points, too. This is a quick turnaround for Pittsburgh's aging defense, which has seven starters in their 30s and greatly misses defensive end Aaron Smith and linebacker James Farrior. The Steelers' defense has looked slow this season. They haven't generated much of a pass rush and have shown leaks against the run. Not helping matters for the Steelers is that LaMarr Woodley, perhaps their most dangerous pass rusher, and star safety Troy Polamalu are both out.

The Titans should get a boost with Kenny Britt, their most talented wideout by far, expected to see his most extensive action.

Through the first month of the season, the Texans have been the best team in football. The Texans are 4-0 for the first time in their 11-year history. They have been a pointspread covering machine going 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games.

They are anxious to show the country on national television, especially in the media center of the nation, just how good they are.

The Jets were a very flawed team before losing Darrelle Revis, their best defensive player, and Santonio Holmes, their lone playmaker on offense. Now they are a team in deep trouble devoid of their weapons and swagger.

The Texans aren't the kind of team that beats themselves. They have a balanced offense with the top running back in the league in Arian Foster. Matt Schaub is an accurate game-manager with receiving weapons Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels.

Wade Phillips, with the addition of J.J. Watt, has built Houston into a dominant defense. The Jets are going to have problems scoring and their defense is far from elite minus Revis.

Look for the Texans to grind out a double-digit victory.

The Saints aren't going to make the playoffs. Not starting 0-4 and in a tough division. But they will be up for this nationally televised home game against an overrated foe.

Thanks to Drew Brees, the Saints still have an elite offense. Brees is at his absolute finest when playing at home. In his last nine games at the Louisiana Superdome, Brees is 236-of-351 (67 percent) for 3,029 yards and 32 touchdowns with just seven interceptions.

Yes, Brees does miss the coaching acumen of Sean Payton. But Brees still is on pace to throw for 5,400 yards and 40 touchdowns. The Saints are going to put up plenty of points on the Chargers. The key question is can the Saints' defense stop anyone?

The Saints lack talent on defense. They are not good tacklers, nor pass rushers. But they will get after Philip Rivers, spurred on by their home crowd in this matchup. This wil be the Saints' Super Bowl game.

Left tackle Jared Gaither is back to protect Philip Rivers' blind side. Gaither is a hupe upgrade for San Diego. But he is rusty after missing training camp, preseason and the first three games of the season with back problems.

The Chargers do not have a strong early-season history. Norv Turner has had much better teams at San Diego than this one. Still, his record with the Chargers during September and October is just 20-20.

San Diego is 3-1, but the lone time it stepped up in class it was buried. That came at home against the Falcons, who won 27-3. Victories against bad foes - Raiders, Titans and Chiefs - don't impress me. The Chargers were out-gained by the Chiefs, but won easily because of six Kansas City turnovers.

The improved Vikings have been one of the feel-good stories during the first month of the season.

But now it's time to step in against Minnesota. The Titans won nine game last season. They are better off with veteran Matt Hasselbeck behind center in this matchup.

Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder has been drawing some nice publicity, but he's still a dink-and-dunker helped tremendously by Adrian Peterson and multi-talented Percy Harvin. The Titans' run defense is going to pick up with the return to health of middle linebacker Colin McCarthy.

The Titans outgained the Texas by 28 yards last week. They held Arian Foster in check. They can do the same with Peterson. Tennessee has been hurt by a minus 6 ratio. Expect fewer turnovers with the more experienced Hasselbeck in charge.

Chris Johnson showed signs of breaking out of his season-long funk as he rushed for 141 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, against an outstanding Houston defense.

The Titans aren't as bad as their record. The Vikings have been overachieving. Expect a correction to come in this game.

I'm going to ride the Jim Harbaugh pointspread marching and lay this number before it reach double-digits. The 49ers are a fantastic 17-5-1 (77 percent) ATS in their last 22 games.

The Billls are a soft team playing the most physical opponent. Not only is this a grass game, but the Bills also are making a long trip reducing their practice time. Buffalo's confidence is down, too, after being steamrolled once again by the Patriots.

The 49ers return home after two weeks on the road. The 49ers' defense is top-rate. Their ground attack is much better than New England's and the Patriots gashed the Bills for 277 yards on the ground, averaging 6.1 yards per run. The Bills also struggle with tight ends and Vernon Davis is one of the best. He's averaged a touchdown per game in his last nine games.

Making matters worse for the Bills is they are not healthy offensively. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are coming off injuries. The Bills are likely to be without two starting offensive linemen, too, as left tackle Cordy Glenn and right guard Kraig Urbik were injured against the Patriots.

The NFL is all about when you play a team - and the timing is right for Kansas City in this matchup.

This is a flat spot for Baltimore. The Ravens are three straight prime time games. They scored a huge home revenge win against New England two weeks ago followed by a short turnaround last Thursday with a hard-played home victory against division rival Cleveland. That was their fourth game in 18 days. Up next after this game for Baltimore is a home game against Dallas. The Ravens have failed to cover the last four times they've faced an opponent with a losing record. They also are 1-3 ATS in their last four road non-division games.

The Ravens' defense isn't nearly as intimidating on the road and it's down this season minus their best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs. The Ravens can be run on to to the outside. Jamaal Charles is healthy again. A healthy Charles could be the most dangerous runner in the league. He's rushed for 325 yards in his last two games as he gets nearer to being 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.

The Chiefs have outgained their opponents by 375 yards, an average of 87.5 yards per game. But are just 1-3 due to an NFL-worst 15 turnovers. Matt Cassel is in danger of losing his starting job. Cassel is never going to be an elite quarterback, but he can be a competent game-manager. He has the league's No. 1 ground attack behind him and a solid No. 1 receiving target in Dwayne Bowe.

Baltimore wins with its offense these days not its defense. The Chiefs have the pass rushers with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston to disrupt Joe Flacco's timing, especially playing in noisy Arrowhead Stadium.

It doesn't matter that the Colts are coming off a bye and the Packers probably aren't going to have Greg Jennings.

The Colts are a young team in total transition. Making things harder for the Colts is they have injuries on their offensive line and in their secondary. They also are down their well-liked first year head coach, Chuck Pagano, who is undergoing treatment for leukemia.

The Packers got their offense back in gear. Aaron Rodgers is going to put up plenty of points playing indoors against such a vulnerable defense.

Andrew Luck is going to be an elite quarterback. But right now he's a rookie and he's going to encounter problems with an improved Packer defense and their savvy defensive coordinator Dom Capers, who will be mixing up different looks and blitzes. The Colts are going to have problems containing Clay Matthews.

Green Bay hasn't been sharp on both sides of the ball. But now the Packers are stepping way down in class after playing the 49ers, Bears, Seahawks in Seattle and high-powered Saints.

This is the time to lay the wood with Green Bay.

The emphasis of this matchup seems to be defense and the offensive line problems each team has been having.

Neither team's offense has looked sharp during the past two weeks.

However, the NFL is all about adjustments. Both teams have playmakers. Adjustments will be made to put these playmakers into favorable positions.

I find Chicago's defense to be overrated. It has a lot of age, Brian Urlacher isn't the force he once was and the secondary isn't elite. The Cowboys are a dangerous team to defend with a healthy DeMarco Murray. Jason Witten already has had his season fill of dropped passes. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are in the discussion for best wide receiver tandem.

Last year, Dallas had three games where the total was between 40 1/2 and 41 1/2. All three went over. This is the Cowboys' lowest over/under of this season. It won't take much for this to go over.

The Bears are learning a new offense. This already, though, is their fourth game. Jay Cutler hasn't had a receiver anywhere near as good as Brandon Marshall since he's been with the Bears. There's a good chance Matt Forte plays, which would be an added plus. The Bears also hold a dangerous special teams weapon in Devin Hester.

Weather won't be a factor. Both offenses will be helped playing on a fast track. So should the kickers. There shouldn't be any missed field goals.

Considering the lack of offense on both sides, taking this many points is huge.

The Cardinals' defense is playing well, but their offense has put up more than 23 points only once during the past 12 games. Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals have no playmakers on offense and Kevin Kolb never has taken full advantage of Fitzgerald's considerable skills.

Miami ranks No. 3 in run defense giving up less than 2.5 yards per run. The Cardinals are 26th in rushing and their backfield depth took a hit with the loss of Beanie Wells. Arizona ranks 29th in passing yards and 31st in total offense. It's easy to knock rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but Miami averages more than 100 yards per game than Arizona does. It's a big plus that Reggie Bush appears ready to play. He's the Dolphins' best weapon and is off to his finest start.

The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL during the last 12 regular-season games going 10-2. But Miami has covered five of its last six road games and is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing a foe with a winning record.

The Cardinals are on a nice roll, but the oddsmaker has caught up to them. This has all the makings of a play-for-field-position type of game that is decided by a field goal at the end.

Now that this total has been bet up by a field goal and past a key totals number, it's time to get involved and fade the move.

Cincinnati's defense isn't as bad as it has looked while its offense isn't as explosive as it appears. The Bengals have put up 34 and 38 points, respectively, the last two weeks. Those outbursts were against two of the worst passes defenses, Washington and the Joe Haden-less Browns.

Look for the Bengals to have a tougher time through the air against the Jaguars, who have surrendered just two touchdown passes. The Jaguars' strength is their pass defense. They play a tough Cover-2 and give up few plays. Andy Dalton is a young quarterback, who could get frustrated facing this style.

The Jaguars have one of the worst passing attacks with Blaine Gabbert. If you discount a fluke 80-yard catch-and-run touchdown by Cecil Shorts to beat the Colts last week, Gabbert has completed 16 of 39 passes for 128 yards during the past two games. The Bengals' pass rush has picked up with the return to health of Carlos Dunlap.

This is going to turn into a running game between Maurice Jones-Drew, who is going to be keyed on, and plodding Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis. Green-Ellis is popular in some fantasy leagues because he scores touchdowns, but he is the least elusive back in the league. He's gone 328 straight carries without breaking off a run longer than 20 yards.

The weather could negatively impact the game, too. There is a 35 percent chance of thunderstorms with a 10 mph wind.

Caught in a flat spot, the 49ers were upset by the Vikings on the road this past Sunday. The 49ers are spending the week in Youngstown, Ohio practicing and stewing about that defeat.

Under Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have always won and covered following a loss. They were 3-0 SU and ATS in that situation last season.

The 49ers have been a covering maching under Harbaugh going 14-6-1 (70 percent). The 49ers possess the most physical defense in the league. The Jets are weak at the skill positions. They are below average at quarterback, they lack a running back with speed and their wideouts are nothing special. The Jets are primarily a running team, but the 49ers have allowed only one rushing touchdown in their last six games.

The 49ers possess not only the better defense, but a much more balanced and effective offense. Alex Smith doesn't turn the ball over, Frank Gore is still fresh and the 49ers have a deeper set of wideouts and a star tight end, Vernon Davis. They can take advantage of a Jets squad that is now missing its best player, cornerback Darrelle Revis. There's a huge drop from Revis to backup Kyle Wilson.

Houston is unbeaten and getting lots of love from the media and betting markets. But this line has become over inflated.

Let's keep in mind, the Texans have played Miami, Jacksonville and Denver. Each of those teams has a losing record. Jake Locker is the second-best quarterback the Texans have seen.

The Titans received a huge needed boost of confidence with their overtime victory last week against Detroit. This is a division game that means a lot more to the Titans in their battle to reach the playoffs. The Texans play next Monday night on national television against the Jets and then have huge home marquee matchups against Green Bay and Baltimore.


The Titans were an above .500 team last season. Their defense and running back Chris Johnson are better than they've shown so far. They are due for much better performances. The Texans are due for a fall. I see a close game here.

The Patriots haven't dropped three in a row since 2002 and that streak isn't going to end against Buffalo.

The Patriots have a losing record, but they very well could be unbeaten having been victimized in two games by replacement referees.

New England's improved defense can handle Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns during his last 13 games, and the Bills' backup running backs as it's doubtful if Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be able to play.

The Bills aren't going to be able to keep up with the Patriots' high-powered attack that has overcome the loss of Aaron Hernandez by the improved running of Stevan Ridley, resurrecting Wes Welker and getting Brandon Lloyd comfortable in the offense. Then there's Rob Gronkowski, who has scored 24 touchdowns in the last 25 games.

The Patriots have owned the Bills beating the 16 of the last 17 times covering 12 of the 17 matchups.

The house absolutely will be rocking in Seattle, which already is the loudest outdoor venue in pro football. Seattle is more physical than Green Bay, but the Seahawks' offense won't be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' high octane offense. The crowd isn't going to bother the composed Rodgers either.

Seattle has to pay lip service to Green Bay's ground now that Cedric Benson is in the backfield and its secondary doesn't have enough talented bodies to prevent Rodgers from having a big game. It's a plus if Greg Jennings plays for Green Bay. I would be surprised if he doesn't play.

Rookie Russell Wilson is a nice story, but the fact is Seattle ranks last in passing and is 29th in total offense. The Packers have improved their pass rush during the last two weeks. Marshawn Lynch is the key to the Seahawks' attack. The Packers are decent against the run and will be keying on Lynch. The Packers run a similar zone running scheme as Seattle so they will be well-coached and well-positioned to defend Lynch.

The Packers have a history of starting fast under Mike McCarthy covering in 14 of their last 20 September games. They are the superior team and will cover this short number.

Guess which team has the best NFC record during the last 11 games? Go to the head class if you answered the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 9-2 during their past 11 games. They don't get any respect because of their quarterback difficulties, but their defense is highly underrated. The Cardinals haven't allowed more than 23 points in any game during the past 11 matchups. During this span, the Cardinals have an NFL-best 33 sacks. Darryl Washington is a stud linebacker.

The Cardinals have captured their last six home games. They catch the Eagles off a victory against Baltimore and hosting the Giants next week. The Eagles are 2-0 with two one-point wins, including a sloppy victory against lowly Cleveland. The Eagels have already turned the ball over nine times and committed 19 penalties. They are not in sync yet despite their 2-0 record.

The Eagles also suffered three key injuries last week losing their center, offensive left tackle and most consistent wide receiver, Jeremy Maclin. Losing center Jason Kelce for the year really hurts Philadelphia as its backup is inexperienced.

The Cardinals beat the Eagles at Philadelphia last season, 21-17. They are more than capable of beating them at home this season especially considering the Eagles are in a flat spot and have yet to look impressive.

The Cardinals have one of the most underrated defenses in football. They haven't allowed more than 23 points during their last 11 games. They've held their two opponents this season - Seattle and New England - to an average of 17 points per game.

Now the Cardinals host Philadelphia. The Cardinals are giving up an average of 16.3 points during their last six home games.

The Eagles have yet to get in sync offensively. Michael Vick played only 12 plays during preseason and has been picked off six times already.

Making it worse for Vick and the Eagles is they will be without three key offensive starters. Center Jason Kelce is out for the season, left tackle King Dunlap is out and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin isn't expected to play.

The Eagles catch a break in that Kevin Kolb will be starting at quarterback for the Cardinals. The Eagles are familiar with their former teammate and know all about his many weaknesses. The Cardinals have yet to exceed 23 points during their last 11 games. Not only do the Cardinals have one of the worst starting quarterbacks, but they also have a terrible offensive line and below average ground attack.

The Bengals are a playoff-tested team that has superior receivers to Washington and a defense that has placed in the top 10 during two of the last three seasons.

This will be the toughest defense Robert Griffin III has faced. Griffin was great versus the Saints. He was good last week against the Rams. Look for his play to drop a notch from those performances against the Bengals. This also is the first time Griffin, who played his college ball on artificial turf at Baylor, will be on grass. Both of Griffin's first two NFL games were on carpet inside a dome. He won't be quite as quick and fast on grass.

The Bengals will be able to move the ball on the Redskins. Washington's pass rush took a huge hit last week with season-ending injuries to Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker. In addition, cornerback Josh Wilson suffered a concussion.

Superior defense, superior quarterback and a good situation are all reasons why I like the Jets to defeat the Dolphins by more than a field goal. It's safe to say that before Week 2, the Jets would have been much higher favorites than this.

Miami was perceived as being maybe the worst team in football after being buried by the Texans in Week 1. But because the Dolphins caught the Raiders traveling cross country on a short week with an early start time, they were able to bury Oakland in the second half last week. Now the Dolphins appear much better to the public.

Right now the Raiders could be the worst team in the NFL. The Dolphins, though, aren't much better going with overmatched rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He's going to struggle against the Jets, which have a top-seven quality defense especially with Derrelle Revis expected to play after missing last week. The Jets have held the Dolphins to a combined 35 points in their last three meetings.

Mark Sanchez isn't better than many NFL starting quarterbacks, but he's still a level higher than Tannehill. He also has more receiving options, especially with tight end Dustin Keller expected to return to the lineup.

Miami is off a win while the Jets are off a loss and face tough matchups in the next two weeks when they meet San Francisco and Houston.

Stepping in against Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers' speeding train isn't the easiest thing to do. But this is the spot to do it.

This is a flat spot for the 49ers, who have failed to cover the past three times they've been a road favorite. San Francisco opened with an impressive road win against the Packers. They followed that up by beating the Lions at home. So they go from Aaron Rodgers to Matthew Stafford to Christian Ponder. Even the fiery Harbaugh may have trouble getting his team up for this matchup. The 49ers travel to the Big Apple next week to face the Jets in the media center of the country.

But first comes this matchup. San Francisco is making the long journey from the West Coast. The 49ers played in the Sunday night game last week and have an early start time here, which almost always is a negative for a West Coast team playing on East Coast time. This also is the 49ers' first game in a dome stadium after playing on outdoor grass in their first two games.

The Vikings are dangerous at home with one of the loudest indoor stadiums. Jared Allen can disrupt the timing of any offensive line, Ponder is much improved in his second season and Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are a pair of dangerous playmakers. So the Vikings don't lack for weapons.

The 49ers aren't built for covering large spreads. They are very conservative on offense. Alex Smith is an efficient game-manager. He doesn't attack downfield.

I consider Denver improved with Peyton Manning replacing Tim Tebow behind center. But I don't consider the Broncos to be a heavyweight yet. It's going to take a heavyweight to beat the Falcons in the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta has won 26 of 32 games at home since Mike Smith became head coach. Matt Ryan is 26-4 inside Georgia Dome. This may be Smith's best team yet.

The Broncos haven't won a road game against a team that went to the playoffs in the same season since 2009.

I'd take Ryan at home over Manning right now. This is just Manning's second game in more than a year. He looked good against the Steelers at home last week, but there is rust.

I also would take Atlanta's wideouts, Julio Jones and Roddy White, over any of Denver's wide receivers. Jones may be the second best wide receiver in football next to Calvin Johnson. I also like the Falcons' tight end Tony Gonzalez against anything Denver offers.

The Falcons have the weapons to successfully spread out the field. The Broncos still have to pay lip service to bullish Michael Turner in the backfield.

Atlanta also has a less publicized ace in the hole in Mike Nolan. Not only is he one of the more respected defensive coordinators in the game, but he also was the Broncos' defensive coordinator so he knows Denver's protection schemes. The Broncos still run some of those same schemes from when Nolan was there.

I don't put much stock in the Jets putting up 48 points against the Bills in Week 1. New York's offense isn't as bad as it looked during preseason when it scored just one touchdown while the team went 0-4 SU and ATS. But it's not nearly as good as it looked against Buffalo either.

The Jets put up defensive and special teams touchdowns while their offense faced little resistant from a Bills defense that didn't rush the passer well or defend against the pass.

This matchup is going to be quite different for the Jets facing an angry Steeler team that lost on national television this past Sunday night. The Steelers ranked first in pass defense last season and will have free safety Ryan Clark back and possibly star linebacker James Harrison.

The Steelers have covered each of the last eight times they've lost a game. If they need any extra motivation, all they have to do is look across the field and spot Tim Tebow, who ended their season in 2011 with a long touchdown pass in overtime.

Mark Sanchez is a below average quarterback and he lacks consistent reliable targets. Tight end Dustin Keller is out and Santonio Holmes has gone 26 straight games without reaching 100 receiving yards. The Steelers won't let their ex-teammate do anything to beat them.

The Jets' defense is far more respectable than their offense, but will be missing star cornerback Darrelle Revis. This is a huge plus for Ben Roethlisberger and a Pittsburgh offense that has become more pass-heavy under new offensive coordinator Todd Haley.

The Colts are at least a field goal better than the Vikings at home. Even though Adrian Peterson scored two touchdowns in a surprising Week 1 performance, I'm not convinced he's 100 percent healthy yet.

I like the Colts' passing game with Andrew Luck much more than the Vikings' feeble passing attack. Reggie Wayne still has something left in the tank and this week the Colts could get back their best receiver, Austin Collie.

Indianapolis going to surprise people this season. Chuck Pagano has a solid defensive mind and has good building blocks with cornerbacks Jerraud Powers and Vontae Davis. Robert Mathis still is a supreme pass rusher no matter where he lines up on the field.

Luck was overshadowed by Robert Griffin III this past Sunday, but make no mistake Luck is an elite talent. Look for him to make his mark against a feeble Vikings secondary that actually made Blaine Gabbert look respectable.

The Chiefs' defense is much better than it looked opening week when they were down several injured defensive players and minus suspended Tamba Hali, their best pass rusher. They will be in much better shape this week as Hali returns from his suspension.

The Chiefs have far more talent than Buffalo. They have six No. 1 draft picks on defense and Jamaal Charles on offense. Charles is by far the best player on either team's offense. The Bills could be without their most reliable running back, Fred Jackson. He suffered a knee injury in the Bills' loss to the Jets.

Buffalo has been terrible since the second half of last season. The Bills are 1-8 in their last nine games losing six of those games by 16 or more points. This doesn't include a winless preseason either.

The Bills can't keep getting away with starting Ryan Fitzpatrick. He led the NFL in interceptions last season with 23 and already has thrown three this season.

This is a big revenge spot for the Chiefs after the Bills embarrassed them, 41-7, at Arrowhead Stadium in their opener last year. That was the Chiefs' worst opening loss ever.

It' a bonus to get this many points with the Chiefs as they should win this game straight-up. The Chiefs have covered nine of the last 11 times they've been underdogs.

Get ready to move Joe Flacco into elite status. Flacco is going to be much improved this season as the Ravens are changing their offense to fit his strength going with an up-tempo, no huddle attack. Ray Rice is going to put up good numbers, too. He's ran for 681 yards against the Bengals in eight career games, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and nearly 120 all-purpose yards.

Baltimore's defense is missing its best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs, but still is solid and intimidating at home. The Ravens will be able to take advantage of the Bengals' losing starting offensive linemen Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton for the season.

I'm not impressed with Cincinnati's offense. Andy Dalton has too many limitations. In his last nine games, he's accounted for just seven touchdowns with 12 turnovers. Aside from A.G. Green, Dalton lacks weapons. The Bengals aren't as strong at running back and wide receiving depth as they were last season. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis is a plodder whose lone strength is scoring short-yardage touchdowns. He's going to be no help when the Bengals fall behind.

Baltimore usually gets off fast in September under John Harbaugh covering nine of its last 12 September games. The Bengals started off 6-2 last season taking advantage of playing the league's easiest first-half schedule. But when the schedule got tougher they finished 3-6 losing their last two games, 24-16, at home to the Ravens and to the Texans, 31-10, in the playoffs. They failed to defeat a playoff team.

I don't see the Browns and rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden being able to keep up with the high octane Eagles offense.

The Browns are missing defensive tackle Phil Taylor and several of their linebackers. They are inexperienced on offense. Weeden had trouble handling the speed of the pro game during preseason along with lacking NFL pocket presence and had accuracy issues. The Browns are counting on another rookie, Trent Richardson, to shore up their offense. But Richardson didn't get any preseason reps because his knee was scoped. He may only see limited duty.

The Eagles were a lot better than their record last season. They ranked in the top 10 offensively and defensively and were playing much better down the stretch. The Eagles have way too many weapons for the limited Browns defense to handle.

Cleveland hasn't been very good at home going 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 home contests. The Browns also have historically been disappointing on opening day losing their past seven openers while going 0-6-1 ATS.

The two teams met in a preseason game a little more than two weeks ago. The Eagles easily won, 27-10. The key about that game was the Eagles' backups out-played the Browns starters. The Eagles bothered Weeden anytime they brought pressure even though they were being somewhat vanilla. It's going to be worse now for Weeden.

Those who bet early on Houston have the best of the number. This number has really steamed since opening just minus seven. Still, the Texans are worth a unit laying double-digits as they will beat the Dolphins by at least two touchdowns.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are healthy giving the Texans an excellent passing attack to go with one of the best ground games in football. The Dolphins were decent defensively last year, but have retooled their defense so growing pains are going to occur.

Miami's real problems, though, are going to be on offense where Ryan Tannehill is set to make his NFL debut. He's going to make it on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. The Texans just may have the best front seven in football. Even losing Mario Williams in free-agency, they still have five dangerous pass rushers in J.J. Watt, Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed, Connor Barwin and rookie Whitney Mercilus. The Dolphins are likely to be without their best protector, left tackle Jake Long.

Making things even worse for Tannehill is the Dolphins lack good skill position players. They may have the weakest set of receivers in the AFC. Miami's wide receivers can't get open and they can't catch. Tannehill won't be able to handle the Texans' defensive speed and he has no one to rely on or bail him out.

Houston has been very good in a favorite's role going 8-3-1 ATS the past 12 times it has been chalk.

The Lions put up 44 points on the Rams two years ago at home and they are better offensively now with Matthew moving into elite status and Calvin Johnson being the undisputed top wide receiver in the NFL.

The Rams are breaking in five new defensive front seven players and also have two rookie starters in their secondary. The Rams also have a rookie punter.

It wouldn't be shocking at all for Detroit to put another 44 points on the Rams. The Rams should be able to help out with the over, too, taking advantage of the Lions' already vulnerable secondary probably missing two starters.

Sam Bradford should revert back to his rookie form of two years ago when he played much better than last year with a healthy and rejuvenated Steven Jackson in the backfield and his top possession wideout, Danny Amendola, back after being out last season.

No coach is better than Bill Belichick with extra preparation time. The Patriots are 8-0 in their first game of the season during the past eight years. Belichick can really concentrate on this matchup since the Patriots host lowly Arizona next week.

New England is going to be much improved defensively. Belichick is going to throw a lot of different looks at inexperienced Jake Locker and he now has better chess pieces in which to maneuver. Locker brings more excitement to Tennessee's offense than over-the-hill Matt Hasselbeck, but he's not nearly as accurate as Locker.

The Titans aren't going to be able to keep up with New England's high-powered offense. The Patriots averaged more than 30 points per game during their first five games last year and Tom Brady has a better wide receiving target to pair with Wes Welker in Brandon Lloyd. The Titans lack the pass rushing skills to disrupt Brady.

New England should be better on the ground, too, with Stevan Ridley showing improvement. He's faster, slicker and more of a pass-catching threat than the Patriots' main ballcarrier from last season, plodding Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis.

The oddsmaker isn't at his sharpest opening week and it showed with this line. The Lions will beat the Rams by double-digits.

Jeff Fisher is under no pressure to turn around the Rams right away. It's going to be a long-term thing and ownership knows that. The Rams have 31 new players.

Matchup-wise, this game is a nightmare for the Rams. They have a rebuilt defensive front seven and two rookies in the secondary. Growing pains are evident. They have no one who can remotely guard Calvin Johnson. Matthew Stafford is a top-five quarterback when playing at home. He should have no problem lighting up a porous Rams defense.

The Lions have covered 11 of their last 16 home games, while the Rams are 1-9 ATS during their past 10 road contests.

The Lions hosted the Rams two years ago and won, 44-6. So what has changed? The Lions have improved as Stafford has become an elite quarterback while the Rams are still rebuilding.

Dallas would have a tough time beating the Giants on the road if it was healthy. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they are not close to being healthy.

There's a strong possibility Dallas could be missing star nose tackle Jay Ratliff and cornerback Mike Jenkins. On offense, Tony Romo could be without his two best possession receiving targets - Jason Witten and Miles Austin.

Dallas' offensive line hasn't been looking good, which is another concern especially facing one of the best pass rushing defensive lines in the NFL. Last year, the Giants sacked Tony Romo nine times in two games.

The Cowboys have failed to cover during their last six division games and have had trouble stopping Eli Manning. Last year, Manning threw for 746 yards and five touchdowns. Now he goes against a revamped youthful Cowboy secondary that has promise, but is short on experience at the corners and will be vulnerable in this spot.

The Giants swept Dallas last year, including winning by 17 points at home, and have covered five of the last six in the series.

Look for the Hall of Fame combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to get it done. The Patriots still feel the sting of being upset by the Giants in the Super Bowl four years ago when they were 18-0.

Certainly the Giants will be just as motivated as New England, but there will be zero chance of the Patriots not fully respecting the Giants.

My pick isn't based on anything negative against the Giants. I like Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning has had a great year and the Giants' defense got hot late when their outstanding front line became full healthy.

As good as Manning has been this season, he's still trumped by Brady. Brady is in the highest tier of quarterbacks with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. He broke Dan Marino's yardage mark this season with 5,239 yards while also throwing 39 touchdown passes.

Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were the only teammates to each have more than 1,000 yards in receiving. But the Patriots were the only team to have three players with more than 900 receiving yards - Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The Patriots don't have the Giants' receiving speed at the flanks, but Gronkowski and Hernandez are hybrid tight ends who will cause the Giants major matchup problems. So will Welker with his quick slants across the middle. Brady can beat the Giants' excellent pass rush with these quick, timing plays that have been honed to perfection. He's far less likely to be sacked five times like he was when the Giants upset the Patriots in the 2007 Super Bowl when Randy Moss downfield was his major target.

Brady can take full advantage of a Giants secondary that yielded 4,082 yards through the air. Only three teams allowed more.

Gronkowski is redefining the tight end position breaking the single-season record at the position for touchdowns with 17 and hauling in 15 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns during the Patriots' two playoff victories.

The Giants have been performing better than any team, but the extra week off is going to slow their momentum. I like Belichick more than any other coach when given extra time to prepare.

New England's defense isn't as bad as perceived. Yes, the Patriots surrendered lots of yardage. But they were 15th in fewest points, 14th in sacks and had 34 takeaways. Only two teams had more takeaways.

In this day and age in the NFL offense trumps defense. The Giants have the superior quarterback, much better wide receivers, a dominant pass rush and loads of momentum.

This will prove enough to overcome the 49ers, who are inexperienced in playoff games and still walking on air after last week's tremendous victory against New Orleans.

Alex Smith played the finest game of his career versus the Saints last week. I don't see Smith duplicating that effort. He hasn't thrown for 300 yards all season and his wide receivers are barely adequate. The Giants will be paying full attention to tight end Vernon Davis, the 49ers' lone legitimate receiving threat.

Lost in the glare of the 49ers' great win against the Saints was the fact that Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes and shredded San Francisco's perceived great defense for 462 yards.

The 49ers just nipped the Saints in the final nine seconds despite a plus 4 turnover advantage. Now the 49ers do have an NFL-best plus 28 turnover ratio and it's not a fluke because their defense hits hard, but it's highly doubtful the 49ers are going to have a big turnover edge on the Giants.

If Eli Manning isn't an elite quarterback, he's close. He threw for nearly 5,000 yards. Manning is a proven commodity in the playoffs, too, with a 4-1 postseason road record with a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those games.

The 49ers are extremely tough to run on, but their secondary isn't that strong. The few times the 49ers faced good quarterbacks they gave up big chunks of yardage. This was the case against Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Matthew Stafford and Manning. The 49ers were fortunate to draw the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was hobbled.

Manning has the NFL's best wide receiving tandem - Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz - to throw to. The Giants' ground attack has picked up, too, with the return to health of Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants are 21-4 when Bradshaw rushes for 60 or more yards.

The Giants are playing the best football in the league steamrolling the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers in do-or-die matchups. No team can match their defensive line when it comes to pass rushing. The Giants have recorded six sacks and 12 hits on the quarterback in their two playoff games.

While the Giants were winning must-win games against tough opponents, the 49ers were sailing through the weak NFC West. Before defeating the Saints, the 49ers had played the Rams, Seattle, beat-up Pittsburgh, Arizona and St. Louis.

First let's talk about the weather. It's not going to be as dire as some are predicting. There is a 40 percent chance of rain, but temperatures are going to be in the 50s and the wind won't be more than 10 mph at the absolute worst.

A slick field, by the way, hurts the pass rush of both teams.

We have a history between these two teams. They played on Nov. 11 at San Francisco and there was 47 points scored with the 49ers winning, 27-20. Ahmad Bradshaw didn't play, which impacted the Giants' ground attack. Still, Eli Manning threw for 311 yards and two touchdowns.

The 49ers' pass defense has proven vulnerable to the few top quarterbacks they've gone again such as Manning. They surrendered 416 yards to Michael Vick, 345 yards to Tony Romo and 293 to Matthew Stafford. All three of those quarterbacks threw two touchdown passes against the 49ers.

This was during the regular season. In their one postseason game, the 49ers yielded four touchdowns and 462 yards to Drew Brees and the Saints. Against these four elite quarterbacks, the 49ers gave up an average of 24.2 points.

Alex Smith is off his finest game as a pro. Smith proved dangerous not only with his arm against the Saints last week, but with his legs, too, running for a key 28-yard touchdowns. The Giants gave up 66 yards on the ground to Aaron Rodgers on just seven carries.

The 49ers have a strong ground attack spearheaded by Frank Gore to keep New York's star pass rushers at bay.

It takes 20 points from each team to ensure an over. That shouldn't be a problem. Keep in mind that with a short spread range overtime is more of a possibility than normal.

The Patriots absolutely crush Tim Tebow and Denver, while Baltimore fails to cover against Houston and its third-string rookie quarterback.

What does it mean? An inflated pointspread that's what.

Tom Brady is having another magnificent year. But as the Saints and Packers found out the hard way last week a great quarterback can't compensate for a weak defense at the upper level playoff stage.

New England ranked 31st in total defense and passing yards. The Patriots' defense can't compare to Baltimore's defense. The Ravens have a much stronger pass rush and secondary. They gave up nearly 2,000 fewer yards than the Patriots. That's mind-boggling. So is the fact that Baltimore surrendered 1.6 yards less per pass and 1.1 yards less per run than the Patriots.

Still, the oddsmaker is swayed by Brady and the marketplace to make the Patriots a strong touchdown or more favorite.

This is a slap in the face to the Ravens. During the John Harbaugh era, the Ravens have won playoff games at four different road sites. This includes a 33-14 victory against the Patriots at Foxboro just two years ago. They also have covered 88 percent of the time during the Harbaugh years when getting 7 1/2 or more points.

The Ravens aren't fancy, but they are very solid. Joe Flacco has passed for more than 3,600 yards each of the last three seasons, Ray Rice is one of the best all-purpose backs in football and Anquan Boldin is one of the league's better possession wide receivers.

Baltimore's defense ranked in the top four in all the major statistical categories, including third in fewest points at 16.6 and in total yards at 288.9. The Ravens also won all seven games they played this season versus playoff teams.

The only playoff teams the Patriots went up against besides the bogus Broncos were the Steelers and Giants. New England lost both of those games.

Aside from Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots don't have any big stars. Their running backs are mediocre, they lack speed at wide receiver and their offensive line is banged-up.

The Ravens have the coaching, playoff experience, veteran leadership, top runner and outstanding defense to hang in against the Patriots if not win straight-up just like they did two years ago.

Kudos to the Houston Texans for winning the AFC South and making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Taking out Cincinnati in the first-round was a bonus.

But now the Texans have gone as far as they can possibly go with 12 players on injured reserve and being led by limited third-string rookie quarterback T.J. Yates.

Just once has Baltimore lost at home during the past two seasons in going 15-1 at M&T Bank Stadium. Make no mistake, this is a strong home field advantage, especially when a rookie quarterback has to face the Ravens in Baltimore.

Yates has thrown just four touchdown passes in his six starts. The Texans are 3-3 in these starts. They rely on a solid defense and a top-notch ground attack spearheaded by Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

Baltimore has an excellent run defense, though, particularly at home where it has yielded an average of just 83 yards on the ground and only three rushing touchdowns. Foster is going to be constantly looking at a stacked front line.

Yates is going to have to make downfield plays for the Texans to have a chance - and I don't see that happening. Yates doesn't have the experience and is going against too good of a defense at one of the toughest road venues in the league. Yates also is playing with a separated left shoulder.

The Ravens have allowed an average of 16 points at home during the past two seasons. Their defensive intensity, intimidation and blitzing all goes way up at home. Yates was sacked every 6.3 times he tried to throw when opponents blitzed. Only Chicago's pathetic backup quarterback Caleb Hanie had a worst percentage. The Ravens had 48 sacks during the season, with 68 percent of them coming at home.

Baltimore already has defeated four playoff teams at home this season - the Steelers, Texans, Bengals and 49ers. The Ravens held those four opponents to an average of 13 points.

The Ravens defeated the Texans, 29-14, in Week 6 when the Texans still had starting quarterback Matt Schaub. The Ravens held the Texans to less than 300 yards of offense, including 93 on the ground. The Ravens have never lost to the Texans in five lifetime meetings.

It's not just Baltimore's defense that is better at home. Ray Rice and Joe Flacco also are much better at M&T Bank Stadium. Rice averages 132 yards rushing at home and 1 1/2 touchdowns per home game.

Flacco has a 4-3 playoff record. Those games have all been on the road. Now he's finally home and will have veteran wideout Anquan Boldin available. Flacco has fired seven touchdown passes during his last four home contests.

The Texans' defense is going to get worn down from carrying what's become a one-dimensional offense that failed to score more than 22 points during their last six regular-season games with Yates at the control.

The Ravens are well-rested and will be fully prepared. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have gone 4-0 following a bye during the regular season with all four of those victories coming by 15 or more points.

Look, I'm just not sold on the 49ers. Yes, they had a great regular season with a strong defense.

But they don't have enough offense to keep up with the Saints.

The Saints would be vulnerable in this matchup if they were one-dimensional and if there were going to be weather issues. Neither is the case, though. The Saints actually have a strong ground attack with four quality runners and the weather is going to be nice with temperatures in the 60s and no rain.

Just because the Saints are great indoors at home doesn't mean they can't produce on a grass field. Drew Brees is too hot and has too many weapons for the 49ers to shut down New Orleans.

The Saints are averaging 34.2 points a game. They've only lost the ball 19 times, which was the fourth-fewest in the league. A large part of San Francisco's success was tying for first in takeaways with 38.

Brees is playing his finest ball, which is saying a lot. He has a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. His quarterback rating in outdoor games was still above 100 percent.

Note, too, the Saints are 12-4 outdoors during the last three seasons.

The Saints have won nine in a row with seven of those victories coming by 11 or more points. They have produced at least 42 points during their last four games.

The 49ers can't come close to matching that. Sure San Francisco's defense is much better than Detroit's and Atlanta's - two playoff teams the Saints beat during the last four weeks - but it's strength is run defense not pass defense.

New Orleans has far more big-game experience, too, than San Francisco. The 49ers aren't as battle tested playing in a far easier conference. The 49ers' last five games were two matchups against the Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals and Steelers with a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger.

The Saints' defense is adept at blitzing. The 49ers are vulnerable when forced to pass. They gave up 44 sacks, seventh-highest in the league.

New Orleans has enough edges, including a major one at quarterback, to win by more than a field goal.

I know some team has to represent the AFC West in the playoffs, but Denver being in is an absolute joke.

The Tim Tebow magic is long gone. There are at least 22 teams better than the Broncos.

In the last three games, the Broncos have averaged 13.3 points. They managed that puny total against the Patriots, Bills and Chiefs.

Now Denver is looking at an elite defense: Pittsburgh. The Steelers give up the fewest points and yards. They are tops against the pass and rank in the top 10 in run defense.

The line opened much lower than I thought because Pittsburgh is banged-up. Rashard Mendenhall is out and Ben Roethlisberger has a bad ankle. Still, Roethlisberger on one leg is far better than a healthy Tebow. The Steelers also have the much better receiving corps with game-breakers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.

Roethlisberger's injury gets the attention, but the Broncos also have several key injuries. They could be down to their third string guard with starter Chris Kuper definitely out. Fullback Spencer Larsen is hurt as is safety Brian Dawkins their most experienced defensive back and leader of their secondary.

The Broncos' defense is worn down from having to carry such a weak offense for so long. Star rookie linebacker Von Miller hasn't had a sack during the last three weeks.

The Steelers are playoff tested having gone 9-2 SU and ATS in the postseason since 2005. The Broncos last made the playoffs in 2005. Pittsburgh has covered 10 of its last 11 January games.

The Steelers hold every edge except home-field advantage. But that certainly can't save Denver. The Steelers are at least two-touchdowns better no matter where this game is played.

Forget about previous seasons and any old sayings about how you should never go over a total this high in the NFL.

Not that there ever was a higher playoff total than this Lions-Saints over/under.

But this is the new NFL where passing and offense reign supreme and the past means nothing.

Defense is trumped by offense not visa versa anymore and neither Detroit nor New Orleans have much of a defense.

But both possess great offenses thanks to Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. Brees threw for 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns. Stafford was right behind him passing for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns, including a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. Still think this is your dad's NFL?

I expect this total to hit 60. So what. The Saints average 41.1 points at home. Detroit should be good for at least three touchdowns. There's 62 points right there.

The Lions' defensive front four can apply heat. The Saints, however, were tied for second in fewest sacks. Detroit has injuries in its secondary and its linebackers are weak in coverage. Brees isn't going to miss a beat in carving up the Lions.

Lions coach Jim Schwartz has been forced to use more zone coverage due to his team's defensive backfield injuries. There isn't a defense that can fully stop Brees, but this type of defense is even more vulnerable to New Orleans' high-powered attack.

Marques Colston is brilliant in finding holes in the zone. There's also no better tight end in the NFC than Jimmy Graham in exploiting zone defenses by catching passes in the middle of the field. If Brees can't find a downfield receiver he still has a dangerous receiving weapon out of the backfield in Darren Sproles.

The Lions have to respect the Saints' ground game, too. New Orleans has a very underrated ground attack. The Saints could have the deepest set of quality of running backs in the NFL with Pierre Thomas, Sproles, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory. The Lions give up five yards per carry.

Detroit is going to get its points, too, with Stafford and the unstoppable Calvin Johnson, who led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,681 and in touchdown receptions with 16.

The wheels are coming off for overachieving Denver and Tim Tebow.

In the last two weeks, the Broncos have lost by 18 points to New England at home and by 26 to Buffalo, which had lost seven in a row.

Defenses have figured out Tebow and the Broncos' lopsided reliance on the run. The Chiefs have recent exposure on Tebow having lost to the Broncos, 17-10, in Week 10. They will be ready for him.

The Chiefs have excellent cornerbacks who can cover one-on-one leaving the rest of their defense to key on Tebow and Willis McGahee.

If you discount a 35-point effort in the dome against Minnesota, the Broncos are averaging just 16.6 points in their last six games.

The Chiefs are motivated to win for popular interim coach Romeo Crennel, especially Kyle Orton. He was waived by Denver last month after being the Broncos' starter for nearly 2 1/2 seasons.

Kansas City's offense has been much better since Orton became its starter two games ago putting up 438 and 435 yards of offense.

Denver's defense is worn down from bailing out its offense and the Broncos' secondary is young and banged-up.

The youthful Broncos are not used to pressure situations like this having not made the playoffs since 2005.

The Raiders own the better record, but the Chargers are the better team.

The question here comes down to motivation and poise. Oakland wins the AFC West with a victory. The Chargers are out of it.

It's highly likely this is Norv Turner's last game as Chargers coach. Turner has been miscast as a head coach, but his players like him. They will play hard for him. There also is no love lost between the Chargers and the Raiders, who beat San Diego in Week 10, 24-17.

The Chargers have the firepower to beat the Raiders. The Chargers also can win by the Raiders giving them the game. I don't trust or like Oakland in a must-win type of spot. The Raiders have failed to cover 14 of the last 18 times they've been a home favorite.

The Raiders are undisciplined and don't take care of the football. Carson Palmer has 15 interceptions in nine games. The Raiders are probably going to break the NFL season-record for penalties and penalty yards.

Oakland hasn't been able to stop great passers this month getting rocked by Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback.

The Chargers have been a strong December team under Turner winning 12 of the last 14 times. San Diego blew out Baltimore, Buffalo and Jacksonville before losing last week on the road against the Lions.

The Raiders have been outgained by 268 yards on the season. They have allowed 44 more first downs. San Diego, on the other hand, has outgained its foes by 801 yards and has made 51 more first downs.

I like the Ravens to cover this short number. I'm not saying the Ravens don't have flaws. They certainly do. Joe Flacco isn't very accurate, the team hasn't performed well on the road and special teams aren't great.

But the Ravens are a legitimate playoff team and Super Bowl contender. Cincinnati is not. The Bengals are more about overachieving than being a playoff team.

Who have the Bengals beaten? Nobody. The only above .500 team Cincinnati has won against is 8-7 Tennessee. The Bengals have lost to the Broncos, 49ers, Texans, Steelers twice and to the Ravens, 31-24, in Week 11 after Baltimore build a 31-14 lead.

Baltimore is 7-0 in its AFC North Division games. The Bengals have feasted on bad opponents and bad quarterbacks having the good fortunate to go against six backup quarterbacks.

Cincinnati's defense is good, but it's trumped by the Ravens, which rank No. 2 in rush defense, No. 3 in fewest points at 16.7 and No. 3 in total defense.

Baltimore's Ray Rice is the best skill-position player on the field. Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has tailed off. He has as many interceptions, six, as touchdown throws during the last seven weeks. He hasn't cleared 200 yards passing since November.

Star wideout A.J. Green is the Bengals' top playmaker and Dalton's top target. However, Green has a sore shoulder that hampers his play. He played in spite of the injury last week but could only manage two receptions for 25 yards.

The Panthers are not an easy out anymore. The Panthers have won and covered four of their last five games. Cam Newton has accounted for 34 touchdowns.

That makes Carolina a very dangerous team, especially if the Saints decide to mail this game in, which very well could be the case.

New Orleans has won the NFC South Division. The Saints are the No. 3 seed. They only could be the No. 2 seed and get a first-round bye if the 49ers lose to the Rams. That's not going to happen. Both New Orleans and San Francisco have early start times on Sunday.

So Saints coach Sean Payton is going to be doing a lot of scoreboard watching. If the 49ers stomp the Rams - and they are double-digit favorites - then Payton won't take chances with Drew Brees and other key starters. He'll yank them since that would render this matchup meaningless from a New Orleans perspective.

Saints backup quarterback Chase Daniel has thrown only five career passes.

Even if Payton elects to play his starters the entire game, the Saints will be in for a tough afternoon. Carolina is averaging 33.1 points in its last six games.

The Saints have a great offense, but leaky defense. New Orleans ranks 30th in passing yards and 26th in total defense.

Carolina nearly upset the Saints back in Week 5 losing 30-27 when New Orleans scored a touchdown with 50 seconds left. The Panthers have covered five of the past seven in the series.

Rarely have the Panthers been blown out. Of their nine defeats, six have been by eight points or less.