Rocketmansports.net - Free Picks from Expert Hanidcappers

Become a Facebook Fan!

Follow Me on Twitter!

NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-20-20	Bears v. Vikings OVER 46.5		33-27	Win	100	99 h 49 m	Show
Kirk Cousins has played extremely well during his last seven games completing 69.8 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,823 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and tossing 16 TD passes with just two interceptions during this span. The Bears' defense has regressed. Their secondary isn't nearly as good as it was earlier in the season. Meanwhile the Bears' offense has looked good the past two games since Mitchell Trubisky came back. David Montgomery is playing his finest ball averaging 7.4 yards a carry during his last three games. Trubisky has Montgomery to rely on and an underrated receiving corps headed by the superb Allen Robinson. The Vikings have given up 26 TD passes, fifth-most in the NFL, and they have the eighth fewest sacks. So Trubisky should have continued success. Playing indoors on carpet should just enhance these two hot offenses.
12-20-20	Texans v. Colts -7		20-27	Push	0	99 h 47 m	Show
The Texans' season was really done when Bill O'Brien foolishly gave away DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Watson is doing the best he can but he has no ingredients. The Texans are one of the five-worst teams in the NFL. They rank last in rushing and second to last in stopping the run. They also give up the second-most yards. The Colts dominate the trenches in this matchup. Jonathan Taylor and Philip Rivers are in line for huge games. The Texans lost their nose tackle, Brandon Dunn, and are minus their top cornerback, Bradley Roby to suspension. The Texans have allowed 25 TD passes with just three interceptions while surrendering the highest passer rating in the league. The teams met just two weeks ago and the Texans managed to hang in losing, 26-20. Since then the Texans have lost Will Fuller and Roby. Now this game has become far more of a mismatch than this spread shows. I expect Indy to win by double-digits.
12-20-20	Seahawks -6 v. Washington Football Team		20-15	Loss	-109	47 h 53 m	Show
Washington's defense has been playing well. But so has Seattle's. The Seahawks' defense has been below the radar giving up just 16.2 points in their last five games. Seattle draws Washington minus Alex Smith and probably without Antonio Gibson. That means Washington is without its top quarterback and best running back. Russell Wilson versus Dwayne Haskins is a monster mismatch. I have far more faith in Wilson and the Seahawks' offense than in Washington's offense especially with Haskins under center.
12-19-20	Bills -6.5 v. Broncos	Top	48-19	Win	100	78 h 18 m	Show
The Bills are coming together as an elite team with their defense playing much better. Buffalo was very strong defensively the previous three seasons. However the Bills began this year slowly giving up 26.5 points during their first 10 games. But following their Week 11 bye, the Bills have yielded 18.7 points in their last three games. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of Drew Lock's last nine starts. Lock has been picked off 13 times during this span. Josh Allen has turned the corner in this his third NFL season. He has accounted for 35 TD's proving to be both a throwing and running threat. The Broncos are without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye, and injured Bryce Callahan. Denver also is without injured cornerback Duke Dawson.
12-17-20	Chargers v. Raiders OVER 53	Top	30-27	Win	100	19 h 39 m	Show
I'm expecting an entertaining shootout in this matchup. The Chargers' defense hasn't lived up to expectations. LA ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 27.8 points. Losing star safety Derwin James before the season was a cruel blow to the Chargers' secondary, which hasn't been helped by cornerback Casey Hayward having a terrible season. Derek Carr finally has gotten comfortable in Jon Gruden's complicated offense producing his finest season. The Raiders have an above average offense. They have scored at least 31 points in more than half of their games. This includes a 31-26 victory against the Chargers on Nov. 8. That game produced 57 points and came close to putting up a combined 63 points because a 4-yard Chargers TD pass on the final play was reversed on replay. The Raiders' offensive line is healthy again. Tackle Trent Brown can keep Joey Bosa from bothering Carr. Rod Marinelli is the Raiders' new defensive coordinator after Gruden fired Paul Guenther Sunday night. I like Marinelli more as a defensive line coach rather than coordinator. He catches a bad break that his first game as coordinator falls on a short week and the Raiders will be down four defensive starters - strong safety Johnathan Abram, linebacker Nicholas Morrow, lineman Clelin Ferrell and cornerback Damon Arnette. Morrow has been the Raiders' best defensive player the past few weeks. Abram is a far-ranging safety and an emotional leader. Only two teams permit more points per game than the Raiders, who surrender 30.1. Las Vegas ranks 25th in total defense and has only 15 sacks in 13 games. Justin Herbert should be able to do a lot of damage with a clean pocket and passing against an extremely banged-up secondary that also is missing starting safety Jeff Heath. He went on injured reserve last week due to a concussion. I expect Keenan Allen and Austi Ekeler to play. Their injuries are not serious. Herbert has the talent, weapons and weak opposing defense to have a huge game.
12-13-20	Steelers v. Bills -2.5		15-26	Win	100	103 h 52 m	Show
Sparked by Josh Allen, who has accounted for 33 TD's, the Bills have a top-10 offense. Now the Bills' defense is coming around to where it was during the previous three seasons when it was one of the league's best. Buffalo's pass defense has a 7-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in its last six games after giving up 12 TD throws with just two interceptions during the first six games. As the Bills become a more complete team, the Steelers are regressing. This isn't surprising since Pittsburgh had won six games by an average of 4.8 points. The Steelers' ground game has gone from mediocre to one of the worst in the league and their defense has been hit hard by multiple linebacker injuries. Losing Devin Bush and Bud Dupree really hurts their pass coverage. Both teams played on Monday, but the Steelers have to make the journey to upstate New York and will be playing for the third time in 11 days. The Bills defeated the Steelers, 17-10, at Pittsburgh last season and Buffalo is better this season.
12-13-20	Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3		23-15	Loss	-120	99 h 43 m	Show
Fresh off upsetting Pittsburgh, Washington has to travel on a short week and in a rare letdown spot. The 49ers also were in action on Monday, but have a far less journey. San Francisco also has more experience playing in Arizona. Playing there isn't so bad for the 49ers considering they were 1-4 at Levi's Stadium this season. The 49ers are far from full strength, but they are getting healthier each week. San Francisco is extremely well-coached on both sides of the ball and are very familiar with Alex Smith. Washington is likely to be without its best running back, Antonio Gibson. He's dealing with turf toe. This non-division game holds a lot of meaning to Kyle Shanahan. He and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owners Daniel Synder. The 49ers shut out Washington, 9-0, last season and Kyle Shanahan awarded the game ball from that win to his father.
12-13-20	Colts -2.5 v. Raiders		44-27	Win	100	99 h 31 m	Show
The Raiders are the only team that can claim victories against the Chiefs and Saints. But Las Vegas also is capable of losing to any team. The Raiders needed a late long TD pass to nip the winless Jets last week and two weeks ago were blown out by the 4-8 Falcons, 43-6. Derek Carr is the Raiders' focal point if Josh Jacobs remains out with an ankle injury. Carr is having a good season, but I would take the Colts defense over him. The Colts give up the fifth-fewest yards, the third-fewest TD passes and have the fourth-best defensive passer rating. Philip Rivers is not a mobile QB and the Colts have offensive line injuries. But the Raiders are tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 15. The Raiders are well below average in all of the major defensive categories, including ranking 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points per game. This figure would be even higher if the Raiders didn't hold the Browns to six points in a game heavily impacted by bad weather and gusting winds. I see the Colts as a well-coached, professional team with a good defense that rarely beats itself. The Raiders can't make that claim. They are too undisciplined and inconsistent.
12-13-20	Texans v. Bears +1.5		7-36	Win	100	95 h 29 m	Show
I'll take the superior Bears defense and home field to trump Deshaun Watson. Only 11 teams have surrendered fewer points than the Bears. The Texans defense ranks 30th in yards and 31st in rushing yards. Chicago's ground attack has picked up the past several weeks with David Montgomery playing well. Mitch Trubisky gives the Bears a mobility factor they didn't have with Nick Foles. Trubisky is turnover-prone, but the Texans have the fewest takeaways in the league. Allen Robinson provides the Bears with the best wide receiver on the field. Watson's numbers go way down when he doesn't have Will Fuller, who is suspended. The Texans also are without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, too. Brandin Cooks is the Texans' best receiver left and he's questionable with a concussion. Pass defense is a Bears strength. Watson can't rely on the Texans' last-ranked ground attack.
12-13-20	Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins	Top	33-27	Loss	-110	95 h 15 m	Show
Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk.
12-10-20	Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5	Top	3-24	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
No coach is better at specific defensive game-planning than Bill Belichick. The Rams found that out the hard way when they lost 13-3 to the Patriots two seasons ago in the Super Bowl. The Rams averaged 32.9 points during the regular season that year. Jared Goff is a quarterback who doesn't keep Belichick awake at night. Belichick's schemes completely stymied Goff, who enters this matchup averaging two turnovers per game during his last five games. New England has shown plenty of defense the past two weeks holding Arizona to 17 points and shutting out the Chargers. The Patriots held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to a combined 4.4 yards per pass attempt, one touchdown pass with four interceptions and five sacks. The Rams rank in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories, giving up the second-fewest yards. The Patriots have failed to break 21 points in six of their last nine games. The Patriots rely heavily on their ground game. They have played ultra-conservative this season because of lack of firepower. Cam Newton never was a highly accurate passer and his throwing has regressed. The Rams rank third in run defense. They also give up the fewest 20-plus yards completion so don't look for many big plays from New England.
12-06-20	Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5		17-12	Win	100	60 h 9 m	Show
Don't judge this total by full season statistics. Go by current form. Sparked by the return of star safety Jamal Adams, the Seahawks have held their last three opponents to an average of 20.3 points after surrendering an average of 30.4 points during the first eight games. The Giants rank 30th in scoring at 19.5 points and 29th in yards gained - and that was with Daniel Jones. Now they have backup QB Colt McCoy, a heady journeyman with a weak arm and a deserved reputation as nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game-manager. The Giants have been running more than they were earlier in the season. They've played at the fifth-slowest pace of any team during November. Seattle has been playing even slower ranking last in tempo during the past two weeks. The Seahawks have gone back to being a ground-and-pound team instead of letting Russell Wilson throw at will. Pete Carroll has returned to this old way to give cover to his defense and protect Wilson, who has been taking a pounding being sacked 16 times during the last four games. The Seahawks' offense has produced six TD's during the last three games after scoring four or more TD's in each of their first eight games. The Giants defense is greatly improved. New York has held its last six foes to an average of 20 points. The Under has cashed in five of those six games. The Under also has cashed in Seattle's past three games.
12-06-20	Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals	Top	38-28	Win	100	133 h 8 m	Show
The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS.
12-06-20	Colts -3 v. Texans		26-20	Win	100	57 h 58 m	Show
Houston had its highlight on Thanksgiving putting the final nail on Matt Patricia's coffin. The Texans are a bad team, two levels lower than the Colts. Indy has a top-10 defense. Deshaun Watson is playing at an elite level, but he doesn't have a reliable ground game even if David Johnson returns and now he has a thin wide receiving group with Will Fuller suspended, Kenny Stills gone and Randall Cobb injured. The Colts have gotten healthier on defense. They are effective and probing rather than flashy on offense. But they have more than enough manpower to handle a Houston defense that ranks 31st in run defense and 30th in total yards. The Texans also are second-to-last in takeaways.
12-06-20	Colts v. Texans UNDER 51		26-20	Win	100	57 h 53 m	Show
These teams averaged a combined 40 points in last season's two meetings. This game shapes up to be lower-scoring than projected, too, as these division foes are very well acquainted with each other. The Colts have offensive line injuries. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is out and center Ryan Kelly is questionable. Philip Rivers figures to be more game-manager than downfield attacker. The Texans are very weak versus the run so I envision the Colts eating up clock with lots of running plays and Rivers sticking to short and safe passes. Deshaun Watson has been on fire. But he no longer has suspended deep threat Will Fuller and hasn't dealt with a defense this good since Week 3 when the Texans faced Pittsburgh and lost, 28-21. When Fuller hasn't been in the lineup, Watson has thrown for 55 fewer yards per game and a full TD pass less.
12-06-20	Lions v. Bears -3		34-30	Loss	-110	57 h 48 m	Show
Perception seems to be that the Lions are a live 'dog because they finally got rid of Matt Patricia and will play harder under interim coach Darrell Bevell. That remains to be seen. I never thought much of Bevell's play-calling when he was an offensive coordinator. The Bears are home, have owned the Lions and have a far superior defense. The Lions' plight is going to continue to be rough if Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift both remain out. I don't expect either of them to play. They are Matthew Stafford's best wide receiver and running back. Chicago has defeated Detroit five straight times, including 27-23 on the road in Week 1. Mitchell Trubisky plays great against just one opponent - this one. Trubisky has completed 67.5 percent of his throws against the Lions for 1,601 yards and 14 TD passes in six games. The Lions' defense isn't good to begin with and now they'll be minus veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant and run-stuffing nose tackle Danny Shelton. The Bears are more likely to be fired-up than the Lions. Chicago has lost five in a row, including getting buried in embarrassing fashion against the Packers in their last game. Matt Nagy ripped his team after that loss. Because their next three games are against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, the Bears still could get into the playoffs. So a hard effort should be forthcoming. Detroit has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times as an underdog.
11-29-20	Bears v. Packers -9		25-41	Win	100	21 h 52 m	Show
I want the Packers off a loss where they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost to the Bears at home when he's started and finished a game since 2015. Green Bay averages 30.8 points, third-highest in the NFL. The Bears entered their break last week averaging fewer than 16 points during their last four games. They are either last or second from the bottom in scoring, total yards and rushing yards., Chicago has a patchwork offensive line and just one weapon, Allen Robinson. The Packers can limit Robinson with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mitch Trubisky is great against the Lions. He's lousy against every other team. The Bears already have given up on Trubisky. He's back because Nick Foles is hurt and has been equally ineffective. The Bears also are 0-6 SU and ATS following a bye.
11-29-20	Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5		27-24	Win	100	17 h 47 m	Show
Given New Orleans being down Drew Brees, the Buccaneers could be the most complete team in the NFC. They have the defense to slow down the Chiefs' high-powered offense and a passing attack that can take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that in its last two games versus the Raiders and Panthers allowed 74.1 percent completions, 8.3 YPA, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while coming up with just two sacks in 83 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Tom Brady spearheads a much more dangerous passing attack than those two teams. Brady could have the top wide receiving trio in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They are getting in sync more each week. It's a bad spot, too, for the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are home with much to prove after big game home losses to the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are in a division sandwich having just gotten satisfying revenge on the Raiders and hosting the Broncos next week.
11-29-20	Titans v. Colts UNDER 51.5		45-26	Loss	-110	14 h 50 m	Show
The Colts are a run-first team that will be minus their best running back, Jonathan Taylor, and probably center Ryan Kelly. The Titans are going to feed Derrick Henry. They are down to their third-string left tackle with Taylor Lewan and backup Ty Sambrailo both out. Tennessee's next two best offensive lineman, guard Rodger Saffold, and center Ben Jones, are each questionable. Indy ranks in the top five in all of the major defensive categories. They held the Titans to 17 points just two weeks ago. Ryan Tannehill had a season-low 5.4 yards per attempt and a 55 percent completion rate in that game. Expect a brisk game with the clock constantly moving due to many running plays. The Titans will make sure to clean up their punting and special teams play, which was costly to them in their loss to the Colts two weeks ago.
11-29-20	Browns -7 v. Jaguars	Top	27-25	Loss	-104	14 h 44 m	Show
The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
11-22-20	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	35-31	Loss	-100	88 h 31 m	Show
Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
11-22-20	Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5		13-20	Win	100	83 h 18 m	Show
The Dolphins are a nice story this season exceeding expectations so far with a 6-3 record. But they are not some elite team and find themselves in a tough situational spot. Miami traveled to Arizona and nipped the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Dolphins beat the Chargers at home last Sunday and now must go on another long flight. This time into high altitude and colder weather. The 3-6 Broncos actually give up fewer yards per game and average more yards per game than the Dolphins. The problem for Denver has been a league-high 21 turnovers. Protect the ball and the Broncos should win. I'm expecting Drew Lock to play, but if he doesn't I'm fine with backup Brett Rypien, who was the quarterback when Denver beat the Jets, 37-28, on Oct. 1. I understand the Dolphins aren't the Jets. But I'm fine if Rypien plays instead of Lock.
11-22-20	Eagles +3.5 v. Browns		17-22	Loss	-115	80 h 20 m	Show
As disappointing as the Eagles have been this season, they are in first place in the bogus NFC East Division. So they certainly are not raising up the white flag. I expect improvement from the Eagles now that they are finally healthy on offense. If you subtract the two heavy-wind games the Browns were involved in against the Raiders and Texas, Cleveland would be giving up 31.6 points a game. The Browns have a banged-up offensive line and right tackle Jack Conklin is dealing with COVID-19 issues. A comparison can be made because each team has played the Ravens and Steelers. The Eagles lost by nine at the Steelers after trailing by just two points with less than four minutes and they were edged by the Ravens, 30-28, after missing a two-point conversion with less than two minutes left. By contrast, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens and blown out 38-7 by the Steelers.
11-22-20	Patriots -126 v. Texans		20-27	Loss	-126	80 h 18 m	Show
The Patriots are far better coached, have momentum with a two-game win streak and match up well to demoralized Houston. The Texans rank last in run defense and second-to-last in rushing. That's a horrible combination made worse by meeting the Patriots, whose strength is running the ball and pass defense. New England is averaging 173.3 yards rushing during its past three games. The Patriots rank third in rushing. Cam Newton is 40-of-52 for 392 yards and a combined 4 TD's during the last two games, victories against the Ravens and Jets. The Texans have only six takeaways, second-lowest in the league. The Texans lack chemistry done in by an early brutal schedule, mismanagement and Bill O'Brien's blundering. O'Brien was a terrible on-the-field coach and Romeo Crennel is not an improvement.
11-22-20	Bengals v. Washington Football Team OVER 47		9-20	Loss	-110	8 h 32 m	Show
Alex Smith has produced 300-yard in consecutive games for the first time in his career. Washington's offense has picked up with its most productive scoring stretch of the season averaging 24 points. Washington gets to face a bad Bengals defense that ranks 26th in total yards and has the second-fewest sacks in the league with 11. Joe Burrow has lived up to high expectations. The Bengals are passing more now that Joe Mixon is out. Washington isn't generating as much quarterback pressure as before.
11-19-20	Cardinals v. Seahawks -3	Top	21-28	Win	100	40 h 27 m	Show
The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010.
11-15-20	Ravens -7 v. Patriots		17-23	Loss	-105	137 h 10 m	Show
The Patriots lack talent and there is nothing Bill Belichick can do about it. The Patriots haven't been this bad in nearly 20 years. They barely managed to beat the Jets. Before that victory, New England was averaging 12.2 points in its last four games. Cam Newton is devoid of weapons and New England's defense is worse than perceived. Washed-up Joe Flacco threw for 262 yards and 3 TD's against the Patriots this past Monday. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL averaging 170 yards on the ground. The Patriots rank 25th in run defense. Baltimore has won its last 10 road games going 7-2-1 ATS. The Ravens, though, have never won at New England in five regular-season meetings. This is their opportunity and I look for a lot of pent-up frustration from the Ravens to be unleashed against the for-once overmatched Patriots.
11-15-20	Ravens v. Patriots OVER 41	Top	17-23	Loss	-115	137 h 11 m	Show
The Patriots' defense is worse than many people thought it was. New England ranks sixth-from-the-bottom in run defense and is going against the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. New England surrendered 262 passing yards and 3 TD throws to Joe Flacco on Monday, so it can't just stack the line to stop the run against Lamar Jackson. The Ravens' defense remains a work-in-progress surrendering 28 points in two of their last three games. Baltimore just lost star pass rusher Calais Campbell to a calf injury. Scoring is way up in the NFL. So this isn't a difficult total to go Over. There shouldn't be any weather problems either with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 40s with just six mph wind.
11-15-20	Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers		10-36	Loss	-110	50 h 20 m	Show
Bengals plus 8 at Steelers I like the Bengals to hang within a touchdown of the Steelers whether Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. I'm locking in now because the number will shrink if Roethlisberger is not cleared to play, which would mean Mason Rudolph under center and a far more conservative Pittsburgh game plan. Rudolph is a stiff and Roethlisberger wouldn't have the benefit of any practice this week. Cincinnati gives up a lot of yardage, but their scoring defense isn't that far below average ranking 20th giving up 26.8 points per game. Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in five of its last seven games. Expectations were set high for Joe Burrow - and he's surpassed them. I don't expect Joe Mixon back yet, but he's only had one really good game. A hidden key for the Bengals has been the tremendous kicking of veteran journeyman Randy Bullock, who is 18-for-20 in field goals and perfect on 20 extra point kicks. Only once have the Bengals lost by more than five points this season. They are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times as a road underdog.
11-15-20	Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5		12-37	Loss	-110	50 h 54 m	Show
Let's get into this handicap of Denver-Las Vegas Over the total by shooting down three false perceptions. No. 1: Derek Carr is a below average QB, more game manager than gunslinger. That may have been true before, but not this season. Carr has grasped and taken a hold of Jon Gruden's astute modes of attack. Aided by better wide receiver weapons and an underrated offensive line, Carr has a career-high and NFL fifth-best passer rating of 110. He's thrown 16 TD passes with just two interceptions. No. 2: Denver's defense is good. It isn't. Average at best. Vic Fangio is a top-five defensive coach, but the Broncos still have surrendered an average of 35.7 points during their last three games. The Broncos are especially vulnerable to tight ends - and the Raiders have an excellent one in Darren Waller. No. 3: The Broncos' offense is boring, held back by work-in-progress Drew Lock and the loss of their best wide receiver, Courtland Sutton. It remains up in the air if Lock will become a successful starting NFL QB. So far, though, he's displayed mobility and daringness to throw downfield instead of just check off. The Broncos have loads of weapons even without Sutton with Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler. Jeudy and Fant have star potential. Denver is averaging 28.2 points during its last four games. The Broncos get to go against a Raiders defense that if you discount a game against the Browns two weeks ago where there were gale force winds and snow that prevented much passing, is giving up an average of 33.7 points in their last five games. Lock should have a clean pocket, too, as Las Vegas has just nine sacks and the fewest takeaways in the league with five.
11-15-20	Eagles -3 v. Giants	Top	17-27	Loss	-114	124 h 15 m	Show
The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
11-12-20	Colts +1 v. Titans	Top	34-17	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
11-09-20	Patriots v. Jets +10	Top	30-27	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
At double-digits, I'm involved with the Jets. And, yes, my hand is firmly holding my nose. The handicap is completely anti-New England rather than pro Jets in any way although the Jets certainly won't lack motivation. This is the rare national stage for them. They are home, hate the Patriots and do not want to become the first Jets team in team history to open 0-9. The line has been adjusted upward because Joe Flacco is going to start instead of Sam Darnold. Flacco has been washed up for years. But he's a veteran and Darnold hasn't played well. So there's really not that much of a difference. Darnold has been spooked by the Patriots and Bill Belichick so I would have had little confidence in him. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' best defensive back, is out with a knee injury. Forget the past two decades. New England is terrible. The Patriots have worse skill position talent than even the Jets. New England ranks 29th in scoring and 30th in total yards. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 points in their last four games. They could have kicking problems, too, as Nick Fok is questionable with a back injury. If Folk can't kick, rookie Justin Rohrwasser would be promoted from the practice squad. The Patriots' puny offense certainly can't withstand any missed field goals. The Patriots shouldn't be laying double-digits to any team - even to the Jets.
11-08-20	Saints v. Bucs -4.5		38-3	Loss	-109	63 h 54 m	Show
The records may not show it, but there's been a turnaround since the Saints beat the Buccaneers opening week. Tampa Bay is now the superior team - and not because it is playing at home. The Buccaneers are a rising power with an elite defense and an offense that could come fully together now that all the pieces are healthy and Antonio Brown has been added. Tampa Bay had the best run defense last year and the Bucs are No. 1 in stopping the run this season overcoming the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa Bay is 6-2 outscoring its foes by 82 points. The Saints are a lucky 5-2 outscoring their opponents by merely nine points. New Orleans has won its last four games by a combined margin of 15 points with two overtime victories. The Saints have given up the second-most TD passes in the league. Tom Brady has the weapons to exploit that.
11-08-20	Dolphins v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5		34-31	Loss	-110	54 h 30 m	Show
A quarterback matchup of Tua Tagovailoa versus Kyler Murray is the headline to this matchup. But this is a sneaky Under play between two underrated defenses against offenses missing key running backs. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 11.3 points during their last three games. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are in the discussion for best cornerback tandem in the NFL. Miami won't have to worry about the Cardinals' starting tailback Kenyan Drake, who is out with an ankle injury. The Cardinals have a bend-but-don't-break defense ranking ninth in scoring defense allowing fewer than 21 points a game. Miami could be without its two best running backs. Lead runner Myles Gaskin is out with a knee injury and Matt Breida is questionable with a hamstring. This could open up carries for plodding Jordan Howard, who is the dream back for Under bettors. Arizona was idle last week. The Cardinals now have film on Tagovailoa, who wasn't impressive in his NFL debut against the Rams last week throwing for just 93 yards.
11-08-20	Ravens -121 v. Colts		24-10	Win	100	53 h 48 m	Show
I think the Colts are a solid, well-coached team with a quality defense. But the Ravens, with Lamar Jackson, trump them especially in this spot. Baltimore is fighting mad after outplaying but losing at home to the Steelers last week because of four turnovers. The Ravens' defense is better than it was last season and their offense has more firepower than the Colts. Baltimore is off its best running game of the season - and it came against the very tough Steelers. Indy hasn't faced the competition Baltimore has. The Colts have feasted on the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, Bengals and Lions. They lost to the Jaguars and struggled against some of those other lower-echelon teams. The Colts haven't gone against a QB who is the dual threat Jackson is. They also haven't encountered such a strong running attack. The Ravens have done their best work on the road winning nine straight away games.
11-08-20	Giants v. Washington Football Team -139		23-20	Loss	-139	53 h 44 m	Show
Washington has short division revenge. The teams met just two weeks ago. The Giants won, 20-19, when Washington missed on a two-point try with 36 seconds left. The Giants had scored on what turned out to be the winning TD on a 43-yard fumble return. Washington outgained New York by 130 yards. Following that game, Washington buried Dallas, 25-3, outgaining the Cowboys, 397-142. Washington had a bye last week. Rookie Antonio Gibson emerged to run for a career-best 128 yards in that game while Kyle Allen continued to improve. This will be his fourth start since replacing Dwayne Haskins. You might not think much of Allen, but Daniel Jones is proving not to be the answer for the Giants. He's thrown just two TD passes in four road games and has committed at least one turnovers in every game. He's thrown the third-most interceptions in the NFL. I give a talent edge to Washington with Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Terry McLaurin and Gibson along with a coaching edge in Ron Riveria against first-year Giants coach Joe Judge.
11-08-20	Seahawks v. Bills UNDER 55		34-44	Loss	-109	53 h 43 m	Show
Don't let the season defensive statistics of these two teams fool you. The stats are skewed. The Bills are healthier on defense now and Seattle has two key defensive reinforcements - All-Pro safety Jamal Adams and two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap. Seattle's defense looked sharp for three quarters last week holding the 49ers to 117 yards, but let up during fourth quarter garbage time after building a 23-point lead. Adams is that rare defensive player who could be worth something on the betting line that isn't being reflected. The Bills are averaging just 18.7 points during their last four games. They could be without center Mitch Morse (concussion) and deep threat John Brown (knee). The Bills are a ground-oriented team that will try to control the clock to keep the ball away from Russell Wilson. Buffalo's defense hasn't been as dominant as last season somewhat in part due to multiple injuries. The Bills are healthier now and could catch Seattle forced to play third-string RB DeeJay Dallas if Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have to miss a second straight week because of injuries.
11-05-20	Packers -7 v. 49ers	Top	34-17	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
The combination of injuries and COVID have destroyed the 49ers for much of the season. This situation is at its worst for the 49ers in this Thursday game. Not only do the 49ers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and injuries in their secondary, but their offense is now devastated, too. San Francisco has to play this game minus starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, star tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams plus be without its top running back, Raheem Mostert, and its three top wide receivers! Talk about a depleted roster. Green Bay is likely down its three best running backs as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are out and I don't expect Aaron Jones to play either. But Aaron Rodgers can overcome this because the Packers have a diverse offense with many short passing options. The Packers are averaging 31.3 points, third-best in the NFL. 49ers QB Nick Mullens operating an offense devoid of weapons will not be able to match Rodgers.
11-01-20	Cowboys v. Eagles -8.5		9-23	Win	100	60 h 36 m	Show
A third-string offensive line and third-string QB Ben DiNucci makes all of the Cowboys' fantastic skill position weapons impotent with the possible exception of rookie CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles' defense is strong enough to take advantage of the Cowboys' extensive injuries. Carson Wentz doesn't need his top two tight ends nor DeSean Jackson to put up a huge number on the Cowboys' hapless defense that gives up the most points per game in the league and ranks last in run defense. A maximum effort should be forthcoming from the Eagles against this hated division rival knowing their bye comes up next week.
11-01-20	Saints v. Bears UNDER 45.5		26-23	Loss	-108	124 h 31 m	Show
Weather in Chicago can get tricky this time of year. Sure enough the weather forecast is for a windy day with gusts in the 19 mph range. The Bears have gone Under in their last four games. No surprise since they have an outstanding defense and a bottom-five caliber offense. Chicago ranks last in rushing and Nick Foles has become more game manager than gunslinger. The Saints have a respectable defense that should see improvement as injured players such as Marcus Davenport are back healthy. Alvin Kamara is a home run hitter. But even with Kamara, the Saints are one of the least explosive teams in the NFL. Drew Brees rarely attacks deep anymore. The Saints also have been without their two top wide receivers.
11-01-20	Titans -4 v. Bengals		20-31	Loss	-125	150 h 41 m	Show
Zac Taylor has been on the job in Cincinnati for nearly 1 1/2 years. So far the Bengals have three victories to show for it. They also are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times as home 'dogs. Taylor has a nice building block in rookie franchise QB Joe Burrow. But right now that's about all the Bengals have. And it's not nearly enough for them to hang with the Titans. Tennessee is averaging nearly 35 points during its last five games. Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing last year and he ranks first this season by a wide margin. Ryan Tannehill has become a top-10 QB and has a healthy set of receivers headed by A.J. Brown. The Titans are going to breeze past a Bengals defense that has below par linebackers and multiple injuries both in the defensive front and secondary. Veteran defensive end Geno Atkins hasn't been quiet in his criticism of the Bengals coaching. Cincinnati surrendered 20 fourth-quarter points to the Browns this past Sunday despite Cleveland being minus Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. The Bengals finished their game against Cleveland minus three starting offensive linemen. They also aren't likely to have RB Joe Mixon back either. The Titans are one of the most opportunistic teams in the NFL with a plus nine turnover margin.
11-01-20	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44		21-24	Loss	-109	124 h 32 m	Show
Both are ground-oriented teams especially the Patriots, who have a struggling passing attack and injuries in their offensive line. The Patriots' strength is their defense, particularly their secondary. The Bills couldn't produce a TD against the Jets last week. The Patriots are averaging 9.3 points during their last three games. The Bills' defense has gotten healthier. The weather forecast is for rain and 15-19 mph wind.
11-01-20	Colts -2.5 v. Lions		41-21	Win	100	84 h 37 m	Show
Simply put, the Colts know how to win. The Lions don't. Indy is coming off its bye. The Colts are much better coached than the Lions and own a far superior defense ranking in the top four in many of the major categories. The Colts are fresh and should control the trenches. The Lions rank 26th in run defense. Jonathan Taylor is lined up for success, which in turn takes the pressure off Philip Rivers. The expected return of superstar linebacker Darius Leonard makes the Colts' defense even stronger. Opposing QB's have just a 7-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus the Colts. The Lions have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been underdogs.
11-01-20	Raiders v. Browns -134		16-6	Loss	-134	25 h 9 m	Show
Weather is going to factor in this game with heavy winds projected. The Browns are a running team, while the Raiders rely far more on the pass. So the conditions favor Cleveland. The Browns' strength is running the ball. Kareem Hunt is good enough to carry the load without Nick Chubb. The Raiders are giving up 32.8 points per game, 2nd-highest in the NFL. Baker Mayfield should be able to pick his spots in favorable yardage situations. The Browns have been opportunistic. They lead the NFL with 14 takeaways. The Raiders are minus 5 in turnover differential. Note this is an early start for the Raiders. The Raiders are 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS when playing in the Midwest or East Coast under Jon Gruden with an averaging losing margin of 13 points.
11-01-20	Vikings v. Packers -6.5	Top	28-22	Loss	-112	150 h 60 m	Show
The Packers crushed the Vikings, 43-34, on the road opening week. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 29-10 in the fourth quarter and went on cruise control. Green Bay had 522 total yards and owned the ball 41:16-18:44. The Vikings couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams. Nothing has changed from that except the Packers have proven they are indeed for real while the Vikings have gone into rebuild mode with a 1-5 record. Minnesota signaled its intentions to begin a rebuild by recently trading stud defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue knowing Dannielle Hunter was not going to return this season. Rodgers can attack a youthful Vikings secondary that ranks among the bottom-four while having a clean pocket. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with only two. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is on pace to throw 27 interceptions. The Packers are 8-0 in NFC North Division games under Matt LaFleur. The line has dropped due to Green Bay injuries. But left tackle David Bakhitari is expected to play and the Packers have a deep roster with one of the best backup RB's in Jamaal Williams.
10-29-20	Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49	Top	25-17	Loss	-108	41 h 11 m	Show
The key here is each team reaching 24 points. I definitely see that happening. Only five teams produce more yards per game than Atlanta. The Falcons' offense shifts into another gear when Julio Jones is back in the lineup, which is the case now. Jones has played in Atlanta's last two games after recovering from a hamstring injury. He's caught a combined 16 passes for 234 yards and scored twice in those two games. Matt Ryan has completed 74.4 percent of his throws for 709 yards with a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception in those games. The Falcons are averaging 31 points during the past two weeks. Ryan is your classic pocket passer. He's deadly effective when he has a clean pocket. The Panthers are tied for the fewest sacks with six. Carolina has an inexperienced secondary and a below average run defense. Todd Gurley shouldn't lack motivation to exploit this after his touchdown-scoring blunder this past Sunday helped cost the Falcons a victory against the Lions. Teddy Bridgewater also should have a clean pocket. Bridgewater is proving that he's a quality NFL starting QB with the second-highest passing percentage in the league while ranking fifth in passing yards. The Falcons rank second-to-last in the NFL in defensive total yards and passing yards. They are giving up 29.6 points a game and a league-worst 19 TD passes. Christian McCaffrey is eligible to return here having been out since Week 3 with a high ankle sprain. It's my guess the Panthers hold him out until their next game. It's just a huge bonus if McCaffrey plays because I still like this total to go Over even if he doesn't. Mike Davis has done well filling in for McCaffrey.
10-26-20	Bears v. Rams UNDER 45	Top	10-24	Win	100	28 h 34 m	Show
The NFL likes to have high-scoring games especially during its nationally televised games. The league probably is going to be disappointed when this one finishes because it has the makings of a low-scoring contest. The Bears entered this Week 7 ranked in the bottom-six in scoring, rushing and yards per play. So why are they 5-1? Their defense has given up a league-low 4 TD passes. Jared Goff has had more trouble versus the Bears than any opponent. Goff has a 0-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 33.9 in two career matchups versus Chicago. Goff actually has played better on the road this season where nine of his 10 TD passes have occurred. The Rams have held four of their six opponents below 20 points. Aaron Donald entered this week leading the NFL in sacks with 7 1/2. He's going to be a load for a mediocre Bears offensive line. Nick Foles has regressed to being more game manager than gunslinger. So this game figures to be conservative. The teams have met the past two seasons and there was not more than 24 points scored in either one.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots UNDER 45.5		33-6	Win	100	124 h 46 m	Show
Both of these teams lean heavily toward the run. The Patriots have become the Cam Newton show. Newton is more feared as a runner than passer. Each team is banged up in the offensive line, too. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is well acquainted with Jimmy Garoppolo, who served as Tom Brady's backup before going to the 49ers. The 49ers will be without their best running back, injured Raheem Mostert. Despite injuries, the 49ers rank fifth in fewest yards allowed per game, while the Patriots yield the ninth fewest yards.
10-25-20	Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 47.5		43-16	Loss	-126	99 h 18 m	Show
Now that we're heading into late October weather can be a factor. That's likely to be the case in this matchup where snow and wind are in the projected Denver forecast. Kansas City has become more run-oriented. That's likely to stay the same with the addition of Le'Veon Bell. The Chiefs have an underrated defense. The Broncos are missing their best wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, and Drew Lock is trying to get the rust off. Denver scored a combined nine points in its two games against Kansas City last season. Denver's strength is its well-coached defense under Vic Fangio. Bradley Chubb has emerged as a top pass rushing force.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots -125		33-6	Loss	-125	56 h 44 m	Show
You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time the Patriots under Bill Belichick lost three games in a row. The spot, matchup and injury situation strongly favor the Patriots, who have covered 67 percent of the time during the past 74 instances following a loss. The Patriots were in a tough spot last week unable to practice on the field because their facilities were shut down due to COVID. It's business as usual this week for the Patriots, who have been able to practice and get back to their normal routine. It's the 49ers who have the bad timing. They just defeated the Rams at home in a pivotal division game this past Sunday. San Francisco has another huge division game next week against the Seahawks. Cam Newton should finally be back to 100 percent. The Patriots are expected to get reinforcements back on both their offensive and defensive lines, including star center David Andrews. The 49ers aren't as lucky. They are down their best running back and have multiple defensive injuries to a number of important players, including Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander and Solomon Thomas. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't played well this season. Garoppolo backed up Tom Brady before going to the 49ers. Belichick certainly knows Garoppolo's tendencies. Both teams are ground-oriented and conservative. Newton is superior to Garoppolo. The Patriots also have the stronger secondary and Belichick is the best coach in football.
10-25-20	Packers -3 v. Texans		35-20	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
A terrible defense and bad coaching have done in the Texans. Their season, for all practical purposes, was to put to rest when they blew a late lead against the Titans this past Sunday. That loss put the Texans at 1-5 and crushed what little morale they had picked up when Bill O'Brien was fired. Opposing QB's are completing 70 percent of their throws versus the Texans for 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Houston also ranks last in run defense. Look for the Packers to come back strong after being embarrassed by the Buccaneers this past Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davonte Adams should produce huge numbers. Despite their loss to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been strong on the road under Matt LaFleur going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Green Bay also has not lost two consecutive games under LaFleur. The Texans have failed to cover the past six times they've been underdogs.
10-25-20	Cowboys -108 v. Washington Football Team		3-25	Loss	-108	120 h 44 m	Show
The Cowboys have serious problems. That was evident watching them this past Monday night. But don't overreact to that game. Washington is worse than Dallas. Washington has trailed by double-digits with the ball in every one of its games. Only one team can match that embarrassing mark - and it's not the Cowboys but the Jets. Andy Dalton will have had two weeks of working with the Cowboys' first-string offense. He's a decent QB when he's surrounded with skill position weapons, which he has with the Cowboys. Washington can't come close to matching the Cowboys' offensive talent. So the Cowboys defense doesn't face a stiff challenge here like they did in five of their previous six games. The Cowboys have covered 79 percent of their last 19 division games.
10-25-20	Panthers +7.5 v. Saints		24-27	Win	100	8 h 9 m	Show
The Saints are an overrated bunch just 2-2 in their last four games and lucky not to be 1-3 after pulling off an improbable overtime home win against the Chargers in their last game. New Orleans hasn't fared well following its bye the past couple of seasons and will be without its two top wideouts, including superstar Michael Thomas. The Panthers have shown defensive improvement and a respectable balanced offense despite not having Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS as a road underdog in his NFL starting career.
10-22-20	Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45	Top	21-22	Win	100	18 h 30 m	Show
This is the first time I have ever led an analysis talking about punters. But they matter here because I envision a lot of punting in this Thursday matchup. Not good for viewership, but plenty good for going Under the total. Opponents have returned just nine of Giants' punter Riley Dixon's 18 punts. Dixon has placed half of his punts inside the 20. Eagles punter Cam Johnston ranks second in the NFL in gross average and fourth in net yardage. Don't look for these teams to have good field position throughout the game. The Eagles are off their most physical matchup of the season. They exerted a lot of energy in a 30-28 loss to the Ravens last week after trailing by 16 points midway through the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz was sacked or knocked down 18 times. Now the Eagles have to play again on just three day's rest. Philadelphia will be without its star running back Miles Sanders, who had all but 17 of the Eagles' rushing attempts during their last five games. Tight end Zach Ertz is out, too. Wentz has been sacked a league-high 25 times playing behind a patch-work offensive line. He has the worst completion percentage of any starting QB in the league. He's thrown nine interceptions, two more than he had all of last season. Daniel Jones has thrown one TD pass since Week 1. His nickname has gone from "Danny Dimes" to "Danny Turnovers" because he has turned the ball over 32 times in 18 career starts. The Giants rank last in yards per game and are second-to-last in scoring averaging 16.8. Losing Saquan Barkley for the season was a killer for the Giants offense. New offensive coordinator Jason Garrett hasn't helped, which is no big surprise. The Eagles have a bigger game on deck hosting Dallas next week. They need to physically survive this game keeping Wentz in one piece. A conservative game plan should be in place sprinkled with a little Jalen Hurts. The Giants have held their last four foes to 3.3 yards per carry. New York's defense is better than its offense. The Giants have good safeties and cornerback James Bradberry is above average. The Giants also have the 11th-most sacks. The Giants don't figure to come into Philadelphia, a place where they have lost the last six times, and try to play wide-open. They don't have the personnel for that, nor the coaching acumen. The Giants need to keep things simple for second-year QB Jones and limit his turnovers. Jones has become more dangerous as a runner than thrower ranking 31st in the league passer ratings. The Eagles have held opposing running backs to 3.3 yards per run.
10-19-20	Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-109	85 h 22 m	Show
If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12.
10-18-20	Rams v. 49ers OVER 51	Top	16-24	Loss	-118	82 h 21 m	Show
Take away Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman and assorted other defensive players and what is left for the 49ers? A defense that gave up 43 points at home to the Dolphins last week. The Rams' offense is far more potent than Miami's. The Rams have numerous receiving weapons, including two good tight ends, rank fourth in the NFL in total yards and have maybe the league's sharpest play-caller in Sean McVay. Jared Goff is having a big season. McVay has been surprisingly conservative at times this season. That shouldn't be the case here facing a banged-up 49ers' secondary and lacking their best pass rusher. The 49ers' offense should be far better this week. Jimmy Garoppolo is healthier and got the rust off last Sunday. He also has his weapons back, including San Francisco's No. 1 running back, Raheem Mostert. The Rams also have injuries in their secondary. LA ranks third in scoring defense holding foes to only 18 points a game. That number is misleading, though, since the 49ers held Washington and the Giants to a combined 19 points in its last two games. The Rams surrendered 35 points on the road to the Bills three games ago. There were 80 and 65 points, respectively, scored in the two meetings last season between the teams with the Rams winning, 41-39, and losing, 34-31.
10-18-20	Packers v. Bucs UNDER 56		10-38	Win	100	58 h 45 m	Show
I don't get why this total is so high? The Packers' defense isn't elite, but it's decent. Pass rusher Za'Darius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander are among the best at their respective positions. No Vita Vea for Tampa Bay. He's a tremendous run-stuffer. But Tampa Bay still has the No. 1 defense in the NFC. The Buccaneers give up the second-fewest yards per game in the NFL. Green Bay leads the NFL in scoring averaging 38 points. The Packers also have gone against all soft defenses - Vikings, Lions, Saints and Falcons. Every one of those teams rank among the bottom seven in points allowed. Aaron Rodgers has yet to face a pass rushing tandem the equal of Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. As for Tampa Bay's offense, we've yet to see vintage Tom Brady. Heck, Brady showed his age, having a senior moment by forgetting it was fourth down on the Bucs' final possession last week against the Bears. The Buccaneers' wideouts are banged-up and Leonard Fournette isn't likely to play leaving the running up to mediocre Ronald Jones.
10-18-20	Bengals +9.5 v. Colts		27-31	Win	100	55 h 1 m	Show
The Bengals are 10-4 ATS as road 'dogs and have shown marked improvement this season. Joe Burrow is living up to his hype and status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. He has solid skill position help and Cincinnati's offensive line is getting better. The Colts defense surrendered 32 points to the Browns last week despite Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100 percent and Cleveland missing Nick Chubb. Indy's defense isn't the same without star linebacker Darius Leonard, who is doubtful to play here. Cincinnati's defense is another facet that has improved. The Bengals sunk a lot of money into upgrading their defense. They finally got back their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, last week. The Colts don't have the offense to lay this big of a number. The Colts rank second-to-last in yards per rush at 3.6 per carry. Yet the Colts have to remain a ground-based, two-wide receiver, two-tight end offense because of wide receiver injuries and the steep decline of Philip Rivers, who has become one of the least effective starting QB's in the league.
10-18-20	Ravens -7.5 v. Eagles		30-28	Loss	-110	55 h 39 m	Show
The Eagles winning the Super Bowl three years ago has become a distant memory. The reality is they have an extremely banged-up offensive line, depleted receiving corps and a defense that gives up the 10th-most points a game with a leaky secondary that would be made worse if Darius Slay can't play due to a concussion. The Ravens don't have a dominant pass rusher. But their defense is opportunistic and well-coached. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. The Ravens will try to exploit the Eagles' offensive line, which will be down their three best linemen if Lane Johnson can't play, with an assorted array of blizes and schemes. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 19 times and thrown nine interceptions. I see Baltimore holding all the advantages here. The Eagles won't even hold much off a home field edge with just 7,500 fans allowed into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday.
10-18-20	Texans +4 v. Titans		36-42	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
The Texans are on the upswing following a much needed coaching change going from toxic Bill O'Brien to popular Romeo Crennel. The Texans responded to the move by getting their first victory, rolling past Jacksonville by 16 points last week. Houston played the hardest September schedule of any team. But now that portion of the schedule is finished and the Texans have their confidence and morale up. The Texans draw Tennessee in a vulnerable spot. The shorthanded Titans are fat and happy after rolling past the Bills, 42-16, this past Tuesday. So this is a very short week for Tennessee, which isn't up to full strength and is dealing with the distraction about its supposed lack of adherence to pandemic protocols. The Titans are 4-0, but their first three victories came by a combined six points all stemming from game-winning field goals that occurred with less than two minutes left. Tennessee is a more well-rounded team than Houston. But the Texans have the better quarterback and the two best defensive players in J.J. Watt and linebacker Zach Cunningham. If the Texans are going to get back into the AFC South Division race they need to win this game. They are the team with the greater urgency.
10-12-20	Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50	Top	27-30	Loss	-104	15 h 4 m	Show
Quarterbacks usually are the focal point. But give a close look to the trenches and that each team will be missing a key skill position player. When doing that this matchup spells Under to me. The Chargers rank 13th in scoring defense. They have a premier pass rusher in Joey Bosa, good run-stuffing linebackers and a solid secondary. Michael Thomas will be missing his fourth straight game. There's a big drop from Thomas to the Saints' other wide receivers. Offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. New Orleans ranks sixth in run defense and 14th in pass defense. This is rookie Justin Herbert's first NFL dome game and just his second road start. He won't have Austin Ekeler, the Chargers' best running back, nor will he have his three best offensive linemen. Center Mike Pouncey is done for the season. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga and right guard Trai Turner have been ruled out for this week. This means the Chargers have backups at three spots and their two left side offensive line starters, Sam Tevi and Forrest Lamp, are below average. Tevi ranks among the league's worst in missing pass blocks. Saints star pass rusher Cameron Jordan has the second-highest pressure rate in the league among defensive linemen. Despite being in different conferences, the teams have a familiarity. They have faced each other in joint practices the past couple of years. This should be a plus for the Under as neither team figures to get caught off-guard.
10-11-20	Colts v. Browns +1.5		23-32	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager.
10-11-20	Bengals +13 v. Ravens		3-27	Loss	-110	53 h 27 m	Show
The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite.
10-11-20	Cardinals -7 v. Jets		30-10	Win	100	53 h 25 m	Show
The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase.
10-11-20	Eagles v. Steelers -7		29-38	Win	100	53 h 24 m	Show
The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS.
10-11-20	Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5	Top	23-16	Loss	-105	54 h 30 m	Show
The Panthers have shown they have plenty of weapons and can put up points despite missing Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater has the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL. Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore rank among the best wide receiver tandems in the league and Mike Davis has been solid filling in for McCaffrey. The Falcons are decimated in the secondary especially at safety. Atlanta is giving up 34.5 points per game, second-most in the NFL. Atlanta, though, can produce points with excellent skill position strength even if Julio Jones doesn't play. Veteran Matt Ryan can exploit a young Carolina defense. So I have no trouble envisioning each team producing at least 27 points especially playing inside Atlanta's fast-track dome.
10-08-20	Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45	Top	19-20	Win	100	32 h 53 m	Show
Look for defense to rule here. The Buccaneers rank No. 2 in run defense and give up the fourth fewest yards. The Bears have given up just three passing TD's, fewest in the league. Chicago also draws an extremely banged-up Tampa Bay offense. The Buccaneers won't have O.J. Howard and probably not Chris Godwin. They also could be minus running back Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy leaving plodding Ronald Jones to handle the running load. The Bucs' remaining wideouts - Mike Evans, Scotty Miller and Justin Watson - aren't at 100 percent either. Playing on Thursday really hurts the Bucs. The Bears are a below average running team and Nick Foles looked worse than Mitch Trubisky. Foles was really hurt with no preseason games to get his timing down with his new team. This will be just his second start with the Bears. I'm not expecting much.
10-04-20	Bills -2.5 v. Raiders	Top	30-23	Win	100	125 h 14 m	Show
Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests.
10-04-20	Seahawks v. Dolphins +7		31-23	Loss	-120	123 h 57 m	Show
Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 45		31-38	Loss	-109	123 h 53 m	Show
It's not a big surprise the Under is 3-0 in Chargers' games this season. The Chargers under Anthony Lynn are a dead-nuts Under team. Lynn runs a conservative offense relying on a strong defense to win the overall field position battle. Lynn is not going to change that style especially with rookie QB Justin Herbert set to face the toughest defense he's ever seen. The Buccaneers have an upper level defense. They are fourth in takeaways and fourth in total yards. Tampa Bay led the NFL in run defense last season. This year they rank third. The Buccaneers' offense, though, remains a work-in-progress. Tom Brady is far less of a risk taker than Jameis Winston preferring short, safe throws instead of attacking over the top. Brady is still trying to get in sync with his new team. Brady is getting a downgrade in offensive lines from the ones he's had in New England.
10-04-20	Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team		31-17	Push	0	36 h 43 m	Show
The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs -6.5		31-38	Win	100	36 h 42 m	Show
The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either.
10-01-20	Broncos +2 v. Jets	Top	37-28	Win	100	16 h 59 m	Show
Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good.
09-28-20	Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54	Top	34-20	Push	0	13 h 46 m	Show
Yes this is a high total. But it's not high enough considering the teams and situation. It's rare to find the Chiefs with a healthy Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Over has covered five of the six times it has happened. The Chiefs should score more than 25 points having accomplished that 84 percent of the time when Mahomes has been the starter. Kansas City's offense potentially could be even better than last season with an upgrade at tailback with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs' defense has given up more than 6 yards per play in both of their games and face fatigue issues traveling West to East after being on the field for nearly 80 plays during last week's road overtime game against the Chargers. Kansas City is especially vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks and Lamar Jackson is the best running QB in the NFL. The Ravens should encounter little resistance on the ground, which in turn will set up Jackson's passing. The Chargers rushed for 183 yards against the Chiefs. The Ravens are a far better running team. The Over should be helped, too, by rules skewed to high-scoring games and official's calling less penalties this season.
09-27-20	Packers v. Saints -3		37-30	Loss	-110	82 h 52 m	Show
Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal.
09-27-20	Bucs -6 v. Broncos		28-10	Win	100	78 h 23 m	Show
Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies.
09-27-20	Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 42.5		28-10	Win	100	38 h 41 m	Show
Take out Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay and Denver's offense isn't so promising. Instead the Broncos face a run-stuffing elite Tampa Bay defense with nothing but dink-and-dunk backup QB Jeff Drisel and Melvin Gordon. The Bucs led the NFL in run defense last season and held their first two foes, Saints and Panthers, to 2.5 yards rushing. Gordon isn't nearly as good a back as Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. The Buccaneers also have excellent pass rushers headed by former Bronco Shaq Barrett, who led the NFL in sacks last season. I envision the Broncos going very conservative here with their conservative coach, defensive-minded Vic Fangio. Fangio probably is one of the three best defensive coaches in the NFL. Denver's defense is not dominant anymore, but it remains respectable. The Broncos defense catches Tampa Bay at a good time. The Buccaneers' offense is not yet in sync as they transition in Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette. The Bucs aren't the pass-happy team of a year ago when Jameis Winston was under center. They are more balanced now with Fournette, a ground-and-pound inside running back. Brady hasn't been overly sharp. He's thrown interceptions in his last four games and is averaging 228 passing yards in his first two games with Tampa Bay. Neither offense is going to be helped by the weather conditions either with heavy winds expected.
09-27-20	Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46		23-23	Push	0	75 h 25 m	Show
Scoring is on a record pace this season in the NFL aided by the official's calling far fewer penalties, which probably is by league design. So to get this total before it hits 47 - a key totals number - is a real plus. Joe Burrow continues to impress. He's looked very good both with his throwing and mobility. Burrow has the targets and a good running back, Joe Mixon, to keep the Eagles off-balance. The Eagles have a vulnerable secondary and Burrow has the receivers to take advantage. The Eagles are due for a big-scoring game. This is a right opponent for that to happen. The Bengals surrender 5.5 yards per run - good news for Miles Sanders - and have just one sack, great news for a banged-up Eagles offensive line and Carson Wentz.
09-27-20	49ers v. Giants +4		36-9	Loss	-115	55 h 45 m	Show
The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation.
09-27-20	Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns		20-34	Loss	-117	34 h 15 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog.
09-27-20	Raiders v. Patriots -6	Top	20-36	Win	100	76 h 53 m	Show
Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat.
09-24-20	Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48	Top	31-13	Loss	-110	20 h 57 m	Show
Through two weeks, the NFL is on a record scoring pace with an average of 50.4 points per game. That's the highest mark since the 1970 merger between the AFL and NFL. It's not a fluke. There is new leadership in the NFL's officiating department. It's clear their emphasis - perhaps league mandated -- is to only call obvious penalties. Because penalties are at their fewest in 18 years. This has helped result in Overs covering 66 percent at 21-11. I expect another Over in this matchup being a nationally televised stand alone Thursday night game featuring offenses that are much better than their defenses. Jacksonville is a top-10 scoring team averaging 28.5 points. Gardner Minshew has underrated receiving targets and running back James Robinson has been one of the season's early surprises. The Dolphins have faced quarterbacks Cam Newton and Josh Allen. Neither is known for their accuracy. Miami allowed them to go 39-of-54 passing for 72.2 percent with a 10.6 yards per attempt and a 4-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those two combined to rush for nearly 100 yards, too, with two rushing touchdowns. Miami is likely to be without its top cornerback also as Byron Jones has a groin injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good quarterback to have going for you when he's going against a bad defense and you're betting an Over. Fitzpatrick isn't afraid to throw deep. He attacks and also is careless with the ball resulting in interceptions. Fitzpatrick should be throwing a lot because Miami has a bad run-blocking offensive line and the Jaguars once strong secondary has been gutted. Jacksonville only has two sacks, too. This is a far easier defense for Fitzpatrick to solve after Miami opened against the Patriots and Bills. The Jaguars gave up 363 passing yards to the Colts in Week 1 and were torched for four TD passes by Ryan Tannehill last Sunday.
09-21-20	Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49	Top	24-34	Loss	-110	63 h 38 m	Show
The Saints have an excellent defense with tremendous depth. It's their offense, though, that gets most of the attention. New Orleans' offense, however, isn't going to be as good as Michael Thomas is out with a high ankle sprain. There's a huge drop from Thomas, maybe the best wide receiver in the NFL, to the rest of the Saints' wideouts. The Raiders' defense is young, but has potential. It's a better unit now that underrated safety and sparkplug Jonathan Abram is healthy. He had 13 tackles in Week 1. The Saints should be able to keep Derek Carr and Las Vegas' offense in check. Carr is more game manager than gunslinger having reached 300 yards passing just once in his last 20 starts. The Saints' defensive coordinator is Dennis Allen, who is familiar with Carr having been the Raiders' head coach from 2012-2014.
09-20-20	Patriots +4 v. Seahawks		30-35	Loss	-108	35 h 45 m	Show
Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact.
09-20-20	Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers	Top	23-20	Loss	-106	86 h 27 m	Show
The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs -9		17-31	Win	100	83 h 59 m	Show
The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs OVER 47.5		17-31	Win	100	83 h 58 m	Show
There were 64 points scored in Carolina's 34-30 opening week loss to the Raiders. Those kinds of Overs are going to be typical in Panthers games this season. Carolina has the worst defense in the league and an up-tempo offense with the top all-purpose back in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey. That combination is going to produce a lot of Overs. Tom Brady and his left tackle Donovan Smith didn't play well opening week against the Saints on the road. Now the Buccaneers drop well down in class. Those two are in good position to atone for their poor performances. Brady and his bevy of high-caliber receivers should light up an inexperienced Panthers defense that allowed game-manager type Derek Carr to have an 8.0 YPA and failed to record not only a sack, but failed to even get a quarterback hit. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in their last 29 games. Brady is most comfortable in the pocket. He shouldn't be bothered. Brady with time still is a high level quarterback. Carolina should contribute to this total going Over, too. The Panthers have an aggressive spread-the-ball around passing approach and a new deep threat, Robby Anderson. McCaffrey is a major plus because defenses key on him rather than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
09-20-20	Giants +5.5 v. Bears		13-17	Win	100	31 h 28 m	Show
The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
09-17-20	Bengals +6 v. Browns	Top	30-35	Win	100	43 h 16 m	Show
Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams +3	Top	17-20	Win	100	108 h 19 m	Show
The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
09-13-20	Bucs +3.5 v. Saints		23-34	Loss	-104	104 h 16 m	Show
No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
09-13-20	Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers		24-20	Win	100	104 h 5 m	Show
There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games.
09-13-20	Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45.5		43-34	Loss	-110	101 h 34 m	Show
These two teams know and hate each other. The intensity level is at its peak. It's shown on the defensive end where five of the past six meetings have gone under. This includes both games last season, which had a combined 37 and 33 points, respectively. The Vikings are in double revenge. Minnesota's defensive line usually gives the Packers problems. The Vikings have a top safety tandem in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris. Minnesota's defensive weakness are youthful and untested cornerbacks. Defensive guru Mike Zimmer has a history of coaching up cornerbacks, though. Minnesota has a run-oriented conservative offense. Kirk Cousins is not a gunslinger. The Vikings will be staying on the ground. The Packers have switched to that style, too, under Matt LaFleur. Green Bay could be minus Billy Turner, who is its third best offensive lineman. He suffered a knee injury during practice and isn't likely to play. The Packers are thin in the offensive line and have bad receivers behind Davante Adams.
09-13-20	Colts v. Jaguars +9.5		20-27	Win	100	100 h 27 m	Show
You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
09-10-20	Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5	Top	20-34	Loss	-103	59 h 55 m	Show
Deshaun Watson is one of the few quarterbacks who can trade points with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' high-powered offense. The Texans put up 31 points in both meetings against the Chiefs last season. Watson is at his best when the Texans are in comeback mode and not trying to establish their feeble ground attack. They certainly figure to be trailing in this game. Kansas City has a strong pass rush, but a very inexperienced and vulnerable secondary. The Chiefs find themselves in this spot because Bashaud Breeland, their most experienced and best cornerback, is suspended for the first four games. Here's a telling quote from Chiefs general manager Brett Veach: "With Bashaud Breeland being out four weeks, we're all aware there could be some growing pains and some lumps along the way," he said about his team's secondary. The Chiefs have the best attack in football - and are healthy. They are upgraded at tailback, too, with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire a starter. Mahomes spearheaded the Chiefs to seven straight touchdowns in Kansas City's 51-31 playoff victory against the Texans. Houston's defense has not improved this season. If anything it has gotten worse.
02-02-20	49ers v. Chiefs -120	Top	20-31	Win	100	318 h 27 m	Show
San Francisco has the superior defense. Kansas City has the superior quarterback. So, which way to go in this Super Bowl? The choice is simple for me: Patrick Mahomes. There's no reason to wait. I'm firing on the Chiefs because of Mahomes, the 49ers' lack of a passing attack and KC's vastly improved defense. Mahomes' numbers the past two seasons spanning 34 regular season and playoff games is mind boggling - 10,316 passing yards, an 84-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and five rushing TD's. These numbers include a 3-1 postseason mark with nine TD's and no interceptions. Kansas City is averaging 37 points in four playoff games the past two seasons. Kansas City has won eight games in a row - all by seven points or more. The Chiefs' average margin of victory during their last eight games is 16.1 points. I respect San Francisco's defense especially now that it is fully healthy again. But in this day and age where rules are out-of-whack skewed to favor offenses - particularly passing offenses - a once-in-a-generation quarterback trumps a strong defense. The best quarterbacks the 49ers have seen this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. I don't include Aaron Rodgers, who had a down year and appears past his prime. In those games, the Saints produced 46 points, the Falcons scored 29 in pulling an upset and the Seahawks came within inches of sweeping the 49ers. I would take the Chiefs' offense ahead of those offenses. It's not just Mahomes versus Jimmy Garoppolo, a game-manager type who is far less crafty and commits more turnovers than Mahomes. Kansas City also has a huge wide receiving edge with speedsters Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. I would take Hill and Watkins over any of the 49ers' wideouts. Travis Kelce is just as good if not better than George Kittle, who is Garoppolo's major receiving weapon and security blanket. Kittle is great. But so is Kelce. No defense has been able to stop Mahomes and Co. The reason for this is because it's impossible. Mahomes is too talented, has too many weapons, gets solid pass protection and the rules are in his favor. An added bonus is Andy Reid off a bye. His record is tremendous in this spot. I don't see the 49ers keep pacing. Kansas City's defense is much improved from last year and the beginning of this season. The Chiefs held their last six regular-season foes to fewer than 12 points a game. KC's run defense would have ranked in the top-10 if based on just the last six games of the season. Just once in their last eight games have the Chiefs allowed an opposing running back to rush for more than 70 yards. They held Derrick Henry to 69 yards and a 3.6 yard average in the AFC title game. Raheem Mostert is a great success story, but he's no Derrick Henry. The Chiefs' pass rush is better, too, with Chris Jones returning from injury and veteran Terrell Suggs coming on board. Suggs is in the top 10 in all-time sacks. The worst case scenario for the Chiefs is falling behind by double-digits. They did that in both of their playoff games this season. It didn't make a difference. The Chiefs still beat the Texans and Titans by 20 and 11 points, respectively. But if the 49ers fall behind by double-digits they are dead because Garoppolo doesn't have the skill set, nor receiving weapons to come back.
01-19-20	Packers v. 49ers OVER 46.5	Top	20-37	Win	100	51 h 58 m	Show
Aaron Rodgers plays best when he has a chip on his shoulder. So he should play well here. Rodgers has taken a hit from the press for not having a Rodgers-type statistical season. All the Packers have done, though, is go 14-3. Aaron Jones has emerged as an elite all-purpose back so Rodgers hasn't had to carry all of the load. Rodgers has well above average offensive tackles and a very good center to go with a top-five wide receiver, Davonte Adams. That's enough for him to produce points against any defense whehter it's home or road. Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career in the first meeting against the 49ers this season. He won't lack motivation or the brains to make sure a repeat performance doesn't occur. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't close to being in Rodgers' class. But he doesn't have to be. The pressure is off Garoppolo because the 49ers should have no trouble running successfully on Green Bay. The Packers have permitted an average of 4.6 yards per rush during their last five games. San Francisco goes three deep at running back and can take advantage of that. The Packers lack experienced cornerbacks to prevent Garoppolo from making short yardage throws in favorable down and distance plays. Title games can sometimes get out of control if the losing team is trailing late because all stops need to be pulled out. That could be the case here.
01-11-20	Titans v. Ravens OVER 46.5	Top	28-12	Loss	-107	76 h 13 m	Show
The Ravens were the top-scoring team in the NFL averaging 33.2 points. The Titans were right there with Baltimore during the second half of the season after making the move inserting Ryan Tannehill as their starting QB leading the league in yards per play during this span. Tennessee averaged 33.4 points during its last seven regular season games. Derrick Henry came on to lead the NFL in rushing establishing himself as the best running back in the league rushing for at least 149 yards in five of his last seven games. Tannehill has underrated receiving weapons in A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. Tannehill enjoyed a career season, but did not play well in his first playoff start. Tannehill should play better now that's he experienced the postseason facing a defense not as good as New England's. Baltimore certainly is going to get its points against a Tennessee defense that ranked 21st in yards allowed and 24th in passing yards and has a banged-up secondary. Lamar Jackson had the best pass/rush ratio of any QB in NFL history. No defense has been able to figure out Jackson and his unique dual threat ability. The Ravens have scored 30 or more points in seven of Jackson's past nine starts. Jackson heads a well-balanced Ravens attack. If this isn't enough, the Ravens also have the top and most accurate kicker in football, Justin Tucker.
01-05-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 49	Top	26-20	Loss	-115	45 h 39 m	Show
Overlooked by Lamar Jackson and being out with a hand injury, Drew Brees hasn't been given full credit for how well he's played this season. Brees has been on top of his game since returning in Week 9 completing nearly 75 percent of his throws while putting up a 25-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Brees has a full complement of weapons headed by a now fully healthy Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, who set the NFL's single season record for receptions this year. The Vikings' defense is down from past seasons due to poor play from their secondary. Thomas and tight end Jared Cook are set for big games especially with mobile linebacker Eric Kendricks dealing with a quad injury. The Vikings are going to do their part, too, in making this a shootout. Minnesota is much more dangerous with Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen back in the lineup and healthy. The Saints' defense took a hit with defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport out. The 49ers put up 48 points on the Saints four games ago. Cook is better than any 49ers running back and San Francisco can't come close to matching the Vikings' wide receiver tandem of Stefon Diggs and Thielen. Kirk Cousins had a very strong season despite his poor performance in Week 16 against the Packers. That game stands out because it was on Monday night. But Cousins had a career-high 107.4 passer rating with 26 TD passes despite sitting out last week. Cousins also has a better history when playing indoors with a passer rating 14 points higher.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14