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NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-09-18	Redskins v. Cardinals UNDER 44		24-6	Win	100	1300 h 2 m	Show
One thing to consider in Week 1 is scoring usually is down. That was the case last year as 10 of the 12 Sunday games went Under opening week. This matchup has the makings of being lower-scoring than the oddsmaker perceives. Jay Gruden is beginning his fifth season as Washington's head coach. The Redskins have averaged 12.2 points in their previous four opening week games under Gruden. Former Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will be making his head coaching debut for Arizona. Wilks has been preparing for the Redskins the entire off-season. He wants to set a strong defensive tone. The Redskins averaged 21.4 points last season. They have less of a downfield passing threat now with Alex Smith at quarterback replacing Kirk Cousins. Smith is learning a new system, too. Arizona gave up an average of 20 points at home last season. The Redskins have good linebackers and a shutdown cornerback in Josh Norman. Their major defensive weakness is stopping the run. The Cardinals are going to be far more conservative under Wilks than they were when Bruce Arians was coach. So it's easy to project David Johnson to get a lot of carries. The Redskins know this, too. So they'll be stacking the line. Arizona has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Sam Bradford is like Alex Smith in that he's more game manager than gunslinger. So the Cardinals' attack is going to consist of a lot of running and short passes, both of which keep the clock moving.
09-09-18	Seahawks v. Broncos -155		24-27	Win	100	148 h 17 m	Show
There's nothing wrong with a highly talented Broncos defense that a decent quarterback can't cure. A seismic climate change from a combination of Brock Osweiler/Trevor Siemian to Case Keenum should prove a winning elixir especially in this spot for Denver. Given weapons and a dominant defense, Keenum led Minnesota to 13 wins in its last 15 games before a loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game. Denver has the pass rushers with Bradley Chubb joining Von Miller to make things rough on Russell Wilson, who may be without his top receiving weapon if Doug Baldwin isn't able to play because of a knee injury that kept him out of preseason. Wilson is a one-man band. Seattle has huge weaknesses in the offensive line, tight end and wide receiving depth. The Seahawks no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom defense to fall back on either due to defections and the retirement of safety Kam Chancellor. The Broncos have opened at home each of the last six years. Their record in these games is 6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS. Opponents aren't conditioned yet to play 60 minutes because of spot playing their starters during preseason. This situation is made worse for Denver's foes because of playing in high mountain altitude that increases their fatigue factor. Even under normal conditions and when their defense was much better, the Seahawks still encountered road problems early in the season going 0-6 SU and ATS the past four years in away games played during the first three weeks.
09-09-18	49ers v. Vikings -4.5		16-24	Win	100	1297 h 40 m	Show
Jimmy Garappolo sparked the 49ers to five straight victories to finish last season. But let's be clear here, Garappolo is not some elite quarterback and the 49ers are not a good team. That late season surge has made San Francisco an overrated commodity. Minnesota could have the best roster in the NFC. Certainly the Vikings have the top defense having allowed the fewest points and yards per game last year. The Vikings went 13-3 in 2017. That was having Dalvin Cook for just four games. Cook is back and Minnesota is upgraded at quarterback with Kirk Cousins. The 49ers have some serious defensive flaws. Signing cornerback Richard Sherman doesn't cover up all of their defensive backfield issues. MInnesota won seven of its eight regular season home games by more than a touchdown last season. That's not a surprise since the Vikings have had the best ATS home mark in the NFL since Mike Zimmer became their head coach in 2014. During Zimmer's four years, the Vikings have covered a staggering 67 percent of their regular season games.
09-09-18	Bengals v. Colts UNDER 47		34-23	Loss	-121	1297 h 39 m	Show
Here is a little know fact. The Colts went Under the total during their final eight games last season. Of course, that was with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Andrew Luck is back now. Luck last threw a regular season pass in 2016. He's returning to an offense that averaged 4.6 yards per play, tied for last in the NFL. Luck is going to be extremely rusty. The youthful Colts aren't likely to put Luck at risk especially behind a leaky offensive line facing excellent pass rushers Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins. So Indy's game plan figures to be highly conservative. The Bengals' offensive line also was terrible last season. It was a primary reason Cincinnati finished last in yards in 2017. The Bengals only had three games last season in which there were more than 46 points scored. Cincinnati failed to score more than 20 points in five of its last six road games.
09-09-18	Bengals +3.5 v. Colts		34-23	Win	100	641 h 26 m	Show
The Bengals are better than the Colts yet taking more than a field goal. What gives here besides Indy's home field? It's the Andrew Luck factor of course. Sure Luck is a huge upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. But Luck is going to be rusty having not played a down last season. Luck makes the Colts better, but not good enough to seriously contend in what shapes up to be a very good AFC South Division. The Colts have lost and failed to cover in seven of their last eight season-openers. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Cincinnati is an average-type team. They are better defensively than the Colts and have a strong wide receiver matchup edge with A.J. Green. Joe Mixon also gives Cincinnati the best running back. I'm not a huge fan of Marvin Lewis, but I prefer his stablility against the youthful Colts, who are breaking in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and special teams coach. The Colts could have as many as nine new defensive starters. They are making the switch to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 and the early returns are not encouraging. Their defense looks like a bottom-four type unit. I like Cincinnati's pass rushers much better than the Colts. I'm also a fan of the Bengals' new defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin. He did a good job with the Lions. Lewis and Austin are respected defensive minds. Much this game is focused on Luck. But the Colts are inferior to the Bengals in the pits. Football Outsiders ranked Indy's offensive line as the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL last season. The Colts aren't going to drastically change that just because they drafted a guard in the first round.
09-09-18	Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 43.5		20-15	Win	100	220 h 48 m	Show
The Giants' offense should be better this season with a re-tooled offensive line, a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Saquan Barkley. But it's never going to be high-scoring due to the advance age and limitations of Eli Manning. The Giants face a top-two quality Jacksonville defense that returns nearly all of its defensive starters. The Jaguars don't figure to break the scoreboard either with erratic Blake Bortles. They are a run-oriented team that is going to pound the ball and limit their chances in a road game they stand a very good chance of winning if they don't commit turnovers. Bortles lost his projected top wide receiver, Marquise Lee, in preseason. The Giants' defense fell apart last season. But two years ago it was very good. I see New York's defense playing much like it did in 2016.
09-09-18	Steelers v. Browns UNDER 46		21-21	Win	100	92 h 2 m	Show
A combination of factors put me on the Under. The weather forecast is for bad weather with high winds. Ben Roethilisberger has a history of playing much worse on the road and the Steelers now appear unlikely to have Le'Veon Bell. The Browns are running a conservative offense with Tyrod Taylor behind center. This is a division rivalry where defense should rule.
09-09-18	Steelers v. Browns +6.5	Top	21-21	Win	100	1297 h 54 m	Show
Forget last season's 0-16 record. The Browns are going to be much improved this season. The oddsmaker has lined their over/under win total at 5 1/2 victories. That should be an indicator right there. The Browns have been itching for this home opener all off-season having had to endure and live with last season's winless year. Talent-wise, the Browns are close to a .500 team. They were done in by a staggering minus 28 turnover ratio, worst in the NFL in 17 years. All but 13 of their 41 turnovers were committed by overmatched rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. Veteran Tyrod Taylor replaces Kizer. Taylor has a winning record as a starting NFL quarterback. Tom Brady is the only starting quarterback who has a lower interception rate than Taylor during the past three years. Taylor has just 20 turnovers during the last three years with Buffalo spanning 43 starts, an average of fewer than seven turnovers per season. By contrast, Cleveland quarterbacks had a combined 34 turnovers in 2017. Cleveland has decent talent with Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Zeitler, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward, Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. Pittsburgh has a history of playing down to its level of competition especially on the road. The Steelers just nipped a much worse Browns team opening week last year at Cleveland winning, 21-18. The Steelers lost to the Bears in their next road contest. They edged the Colts, who were playing a backup quarterback, by only three points at Indianapolis and defeated the sub .500 Bengals by three points at Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger has a staggering home/road difference. He plays far better at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger has thrown 49 more touchdown passes at home and has 14 more interceptions on the road. Roethlisberger has a new offensive coordinator for the first time in six years with Todd Haley leaving. Guess where Haley went? Cleveland. Haley knows Roethlisberger and the Steelers' tendencies as well as anyone. The Steelers were 25th in yards per rush last season despite having Le'Veon Bell, who could enter the matchup extremely rusty if he has another prolonged holdout like last year. If you discount the Steelers' last road game in which they scored 34 points against the Texans and their backup quarterback, T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than 21 points in seven of its last nine road games. Taylor has a 23-5 record when his team allows 21 or less points. Note, too, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are 1-5-1 ATS in Week 1 during the past seven years.
02-04-18	Eagles v. Patriots -175	Top	41-33	Loss	-175	122 h 56 m	Show
Call it fate, destiny or whatever you like, but Bill Belichick and Tom Brady aren't losing to Nick Foles. I want the Patriots going for me here and the best way to do that is via the money line. There's actually value backing the Super Bowl favorite on the money line. Sports books get overwhelmed with money line wagers on the underdog so they lower the money line on the favorite. The Eagles are Super Bowl novices having last been in one in 2005. The Patriots are going for their third Super Bowl win in four years. The Eagles lack the dynamic offense to keep up with Brady with Carson Wentz out. It's not just Wentz. The Eagles are minus their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Jason Peters, and also are without Darren Sproles. He was their most dangerous outside threat and top return man. Brady gets all the attention, but New England's defense yielded the fewest points in the NFL from Week 5. Philadelphia's defense is good, but its not dominant. Brady not only has excellent wide receiving targets, but he'll also have Rob Gronkowski back and the best set of pass-catching running backs he's ever had with Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead. Who's more likely to throw a TD pass, Brady or Foles? Who's more likely to throw an interception, Brady or Foles? We know the answer to those questions. The Patriots have won 91 percent of their last 174 games when having a positive turnover ratio. Super Bowl Props (courtesy of the Westgate) Will there be overtime? I'd play No at minus 800. There has been one overtime in the 51-year history of the Super Bowl - and it happened last year. It's a lot of money to lay out for a small profit, but the odds are overwhelming that it will be a long time before another overtime happens in the Super Bowl. Nick Foles Over/Under 33 1/2 pass attempts: Under. The Eagles' game plan is to run the ball and take the pressure off Foles. They don't want him to play gunslinger. There's always the possibility that Foles, who is not mobile, could get injured, too. Jay Ajayi Over/Under 14 1/2 rushing attempts: Over. Ajayi is the Eagles' best running back. He's going to get fed the ball here. The Eagles want to run and play keep away from Brady. That means a lot of carries for Ajayi. Will Ajayi Score a Touchdown in the First Half: Yes at plus $3.75. Philadelphia scored 62 percent of its points in the first half during its past two games thanks to excellent play-calling and preparation by Doug Pederson. Ajayi is a good choice to get a touchdown if the Eagles do score in the first half. Over/Under 4 1/2 total solo/assisted tackles by Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks: Over. The Eagles don't blitz their linebackers very often. Kendricks is an outstanding athlete who not only is good against the run, but also versus the pass. The Patriots throw a lot to their running backs, who will be covered by linebackers. Over/Under 2 on Patriots sacks: Over. Foles isn't mobile. He's also a veteran who isn't going to do something crazy when pressured. He'll take a sack if he has to. If the Eagles are playing from behind - which I anticipate - than the Patriots' sack chances increase even more.
01-21-18	Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5	Top	20-24	Loss	-103	100 h 4 m	Show
Three big reasons why I like the Patriots: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and New England's defense. The first two reasons are obvious. The combination of home-field and Brady versus Blake Bortles are worthy of the point spread right there. Jacksonville's defense was outstanding during much of the regular season. But Brady is at his finest against the type of zone cover style the Jaguars use. The Jaguars' defense also has been wearing down after carrying their offense for so many games. Jacksonville has given up an average of 32 points during its last four road games. It's the Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest points since Week 5. By far, the Patriots have the more playoff experience, big-game experience and discipline. All of that is going to matter here. The Patriots can win by talent, or by scheme and coaching. The Jaguars can't outscheme the Patriots. Brady has a balanced attack. He'll be able to slice up the Jaguars' defense with quick slants and utilizing versatile Dion Lewis. The Patriots also are expected to get back wide receiver Chris Hogan and running back James White, one of the best pass-catching runners out of the backfield in the NFL. Hogan is a big upgrade on Phillip Dorsett and gives Brady another strong receiving target to go with Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola. The Jaguars' offense looked great against the Steelers last week. But Jacksonville has yet to achieve trusted consistency on offense relying heavily on rookie Leonard Fournette. Before putting up 45 points on the Steelers last week, the Jaguars had scored only 10 points during each of their last two games. The Patriots aren't going to let Fournette beat them. I don't see Bortles, one of the most inaccurate throwers in the league, and his inexperienced wide receiving corps keeping up with Brady.
01-14-18	Saints v. Vikings -3.5	Top	24-29	Win	100	155 h 49 m	Show
The oddsmaker isn't giving the Vikings enough credit here. Minnesota's home field advantage is worth the spread alone - and the Vikings are much superior to the Saints. Minnesota is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Vikings are 7-1 at home, including defeating the Saints, 29-19, opening week. New Orleans has lost and failed to cover in its past three road games. The Saints are 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 2-6 ATS during their past eight games. Drew Brees is the best quarterback on the field. But he doesn't have the receiving talent he's had in past years and is going against the best defense in football. The Vikings have no weaknesses especially on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up the fewest yards per game and fewest points per game at 15.8. Minnesota also ranked No. 2 in run defense and pass defense. Case Keenum is having a magical and career season. He's mobile and can rely on two solid running backs plus good receivers headed by Adam Thielen, who had the fifth most receiving yards in the league. Stefon Diggs is highly effective when healthy, which he is, and Kyle Rudolph is one of the best red zone tight ends. Both Diggs and Rudolph scored eight touchdowns this season. Another plus for Minnesota's offense is rookie center Pat Elfein is back practicing after being out and is likely to play. He's had an outstanding season. The Saints defense is improved, but is back to being shaky due to multiple injuries and fatigue. The Saints peaked during the middle part of the season in October and November. They've only played really well once in their last seven games. They lost to the Buccaneers in Week 17 surrendering 445 yards. The Saints defense has been on the field for 152 plays during the last two weeks, a massive amount, while the Vikings enjoyed a well-earned bye this past week. The combination of being down four defensive starters from the start of season and a heavy fatigue factor is going to leave the Saints defense highly vulnerable, while the Saints offense isn't going to be able to generate enough points to stay with Minnesota being on the road and operating against the premier defense in football.
01-14-18	Jaguars v. Steelers -7.5		45-42	Loss	-100	149 h 52 m	Show
I could write this analysis in two words: Blake Bortles. He's not beating the Steelers on the road. No matter how good Jacksonville's defense is, the Jaguars can't beat an elite foe on the road with Bortles behind center. He's too turnover-prone and inaccurate. The Steelers' run defense has taken a hit with Ryan Shazier out, but they will load the box just like the Bills did in holding the Jaguars to 10 points at home this past Sunday. Leonard Fournette isn't nearly as healthy and fresh as he was when the Jaguars stunned the Steelers at Heinz Field in Week 5. Bortles didn't play well in that game either. It was the Jaguars' defense that came up with five interceptions that set up that victory. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history at home and in cold weather. Jacksonville hasn't played a cold weather game all season. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20s with a chance of snow. Antonio Brown should return for the Steelers. Even if he doesn't, Roethlisberger has a balanced attack. The Jaguars defense has to play things straight knowing Le'Veon Bell can beat them on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield while Roethlisberger has downfield targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant. It's just an added plus if Brown is in the lineup, too.
01-13-18	Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5		10-15	Win	100	55 h 56 m	Show
The marketplace has been active early in driving this total down. I agree with the move. The linesmaker opened this game way too high. The Falcons are perceived as a big offensive team. That was true last season. Not this season. Atlanta's defense is improved, but its offense regressed considerably minus guru offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Atlanta scored 27 fewer touchdowns and gained 816 fewer yards than last season. It's why the Falcons have gone Under during their past six games. If you factor in games the Falcons played against playoff teams this season, you'll see an 8-0 mark to the Under with the highest scoring game being 40 points. The Falcons also haven't faced a defense this good since Week 13 when they were held to nine points at home by the Vikings. Philadelphia is home and its defense is rested following a bye. The Eagles ranked No. 1 in run defense and were in the top-five in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring defense and total yards. The last three road teams combined to average only 6.3 points against the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles will be conservative on offense not wanting to trust, or open things up, with erratic backup quarterback Nick Foles. That means a heavy dose of power inside running with Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement. The Eagles lost their main outside threat and top returner, Darren Sproles, earlier in the season. The temperature should be another plus for the under with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 30s with wind around 13 mph.
01-13-18	Falcons v. Eagles +3		10-15	Win	100	55 h 30 m	Show
Too much respect is being given to the Falcons here and not enough to the Eagles. The oddsmaker has overadjusted to Nick Foles being the Eagles quarterback. The Eagles are home, by far the more rested team, have the superior defense and an edge in special teams. The Eagles will win this game with defense and a strong ground game. The Falcons have the more name players on offense, but Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman all had down seasons especially compared to last season. Ryan has not thrown more than one touchdown pass during his last seven games. Jones scored just three touchdowns this season. Freeman rushed for 214 fewer yards than last season and accounted for eight touchdowns after scoring 13 touchdowns last season. Philadelphia was unbeaten at home this season until deciding to rest many of its starters in Week 17 during a loss to Dallas. The Eagles hold a strong homefield edge made moreso by cold weather, which the Falcons have yet to encounter this season. There's also a fatigue factor to consider. While many of the main Eagles have been off for nearly three weeks, the Falcons are playing in their third road game in four weeks. The Falcons have had to play either an above .500 team, or division rival, during each of the last 10 weeks. That's not only a physical drain, but a mental one, too.
01-07-18	Bills v. Jaguars UNDER 40		3-10	Win	100	126 h 28 m	Show
First off, I don't see the Bills scoring many points here - if any. The Bills rank 31st in passing. Their best skill position player is LeSean McCoy and he will be severly hampered by an ankle injury if he even plays. Tyrod Taylor can't attack downfield. He doesn't have the necessary talent to do that, nor does he have the wide receiving weapons. Buffalo has the worst wide receivers in the AFC. If McCoy is ruled out, Taylor's running backs will be overweight, over-the-hill third-stringer Mike Tolbert and practice squad player Marcus Murphy. Making this far worse for the Bills is they are on the road against maybe the premier defense in football. The Jaguars rank No. 2 in fewest yards per game and scoring defense giving up of 16.8 points per game. They led the NFL with 55 sacks and set a franchise-record with 21 interceptions in leading the NFL in pass defense. Defensive lineman Calais Campbell, linebacker Telvin Smith and cornerback Jalen Ramsey rank among the best at their respective positions. Buffalo's strength is a bend-but-don't-break defense. If you discount their games against the powerful Patriots, the Bills held their last four opponents to 12.2 points a game. The Jaguars aren't going to do anything that would jeopardize winning this game such as attacking downfield with erratic Blake Bortles. They are going to play a conservative, field-position game with lots of running plays. The Jaguars have three good running backs. Bortles can be turnover prone and he has inexperienced receivers. Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is not a moron. He won't take chances attacking downfield. The Jaguars' offensive line isn't outstanding at run blocking. The Jaguars averaged fewer than four yards a carry in five of their last seven games. But the Bills ranked 29th in run defense. So that's where the Jaguars will attack while not risking any Bortles' interceptions. Lots of running eats up lots of clock.
01-07-18	Bills v. Jaguars -8	Top	3-10	Loss	-103	126 h 29 m	Show
It's a nice story that the Bills finally made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. But, truth be told, the Bills have no business in the postseason. Buffalo was minus 57 in point differential. The Chargers, by contrast, were plus 83 in scoring differential but failed to make the playoffs. If LeSean McCoy doesn't play, the Bills will have the worst set of skill position players I've ever seen for a playoff team. Even if McCoy plays, he will be extremely limited by an ankle injury. It's not a surprise Buffalo ranked 31st in passing. Tyrod Taylor is more runner than thrower. The Bills thought so little of Taylor they benched him for Nathan Peterman in Week 11. Taylor has no decent wide receiving options. If McCoy is a no-go, the Bills' running backs will be plodding third-stringer Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy, who was just called up from the practice squad when second-string running back Travaris Cadet was lost for the season with a broken ankle in Week 16. The Jaguars give up the second-fewest points and yards per game in the league. They rank No. 1 in pass defense. I can't see the Bills putting up many points - if any - against the home Jaguars. Blake Bortles had a strong December with the exception of his last game. If you discount that performance on the road against the Titans in Week 17, Bortles had thrown nine touchdowns in his past four games. He has 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to do the heavy lifting. There's also the Doug Marrone factor. He coached the Bills from 2013-14 and so is extra familiar with Buffalo. Marrone's stay in Buffalo didn't end well so he won't be reluctant to run up a score.
01-06-18	Titans v. Chiefs -8	Top	22-21	Loss	-110	107 h 28 m	Show
The Titans were good at two things this season - winning at home and beating foes from their weak AFC South Division. What the Titans aren't good at is winning on the road and defeating strong opponents. Tennessee has lost and failed to cover five of its last seven away matchups. The Titans' only victories during this span were against the winless Browns in overtime and beating the four-win Colts by four points. Except for the Jaguars, the Titans didn't beat a playoff team. The Titans have just two victories since Dec. 3. They lack playoff experience, too, having last made the postseason back in 2008. Kansas City is playoff-tested having made the postseason three of the past four seasons, including the last two. Andy Reid is a much better coach than Mike Mularkey and the Chiefs were able to rest a number of their key starters this past Sunday. The Chiefs play excellent defense at Arrowhead Stadium - holding foes to fewer than 17 points per game on the season - and their offense is back in gear. The Chiefs finished the regular season winning and covering their last four games while averaging 28 points. The Titans surrendered 27 touchdown passes. Their defense is far less effective on the road. Alex Smith had a career season leading the NFL in passer rating and shedding his image of being a mere game-manager. Smith's greatest strength is not turning the ball over. He has weapons with rookie Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill both establishing themselves as big-play threats. Hunt led the NFL in rushing. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. The Chiefs' braintrust of Reid and sharp offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is far superior to Mularkey, whose conservative strategies caused promising third-year quarterback Marcus Mariota to regress. Mariota was picked off a career-high 15 times. The Titans probably aren't going to have DeMarco Murray. So the Titans are left to counter the Chiefs' high-powered, balanced attack with Mariota, who has played much worse on the road, and Derrick Henry. The Chiefs are likely to load the box since the Titans have failed to establish a downfield passing game, another weakness of Mularkey. Tennessee averaged 15 points in losing its last two road games, falling to the Cardinals and 49ers. Neither of those teams made the playoffs.
12-31-17	Saints -6.5 v. Bucs		24-31	Loss	-110	33 h 23 m	Show
I don't see the Buccaneers being able to stop the Saints' balanced attack. The Bucs' defense is battered and worn down. The Saints have arguably the top running back tandem with Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. Drew Brees remains as sharp as ever on pace to set the NFL record for highest completion rate in a season at 71.9. Tampa Bay has lost five in a row. The Buccaneers have managed to hang in during this losing streak but they've been terrible through the years as a home 'dog and I just don't see a strong effort from them. Jameis Winston has had a poor year and is down several key receiver targets. Winston still isn't 100 percent due to a shoulder injury. I'm not impressed with any of Tampa Bay's running backs. The Saints' defense is much improved. New Orleans has covered 13 of its last 17 road contests. The spread is fair considering the Saints are not only the superior team, but the more motivated looking to win a division title.
12-31-17	Raiders +7.5 v. Chargers		10-30	Loss	-115	30 h 5 m	Show
The Raiders have a strong recent history of playing the Chargers tough. Oakland has won four of the past five meetings between the two teams. The Chargers' lone victory during this span came this season, 17-16, on Oct. 15. The line is inflated due to the Chargers needing to win to keep alive their playoff hopes. LA, though, really has no home field advantage. There could be as many Raiders fans in attendance. The Raiders aren't going to lie down here against this division foe. Jack Del Rio's coaching future could be on the line and the Raiders have several below-the-radar factors going their way here. One of these factors is an edge in special teams for Oakland. The Raiders have a dangerous returner in Cordarrelle Patterson and a good punter in Marquette King, who has the Raiders ranked third in net punting yards. The Chargers are below average on special teams with their inconsistent kicking game and they won't have perhaps their best special teams player in Adrian Phillips. He's out with an ankle injury. The Raiders' defense has improved since John Pagano replaced Ken North Jr. as the defensive coordinator. The Chargers have key skill position players banged-up. Tight end Hunter Henry is out with a kidney injury and Melvin Gordon may not play because of an ankle injury, which would leave third-stringer Braden Oliver as the main ball-carrier. Even if Gordon plays he'll be limited in his cutting. Gordon had 150 yards from scrimmage in the Chargers' one-point victory against the Raiders. The Chargers have a strong secondary and good pass rush. Their weakness is run defense, where they rank last in the NFL. Bilal Powell rushed for 145 yards on 19 carries against LA last Sunday and Kareem Hunt ran for 155 yards on 24 carries two weeks ago against the Chargers in helping Kansas City win, 30-13. The Raiders are going to pound away at the Chargers with Marshawn Lynch. This will make things easier for Derek Carr , who had just returned from a back injury when the team's met the first time. Mobile quarterbacks such as Carr have given the Chargers problems.
12-31-17	Jaguars v. Titans -123		10-15	Win	100	5 h 51 m	Show
The money line is low enough for me to get involved here. The Titans beat the Jaguars early in the season on the road. Tennessee is in must-win mode. I findi it hard to believe that the Jaguars will play their starters, and go all out, the entire game with nothing to play for. That would just expose them to injury. The Titans play much better at home having won nine of their last 11 home contests.
12-31-17	Cardinals v. Seahawks -7	Top	26-24	Loss	-122	133 h 30 m	Show
Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory. I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton. Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense. Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time. In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out. Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field. The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game. The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks.
12-24-17	Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 46.5	Top	21-12	Loss	-110	85 h 8 m	Show
The Legion of Boom is dead. It doesn't exist without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Injuries, attribution and low morale have turned Seattle's dominant defense into a mediocre unit vulnerable to a great running back. During its last two games, Seattle has given up a combined 72 points to the Jaguars and Rams. Leonard Fournette rushed for 101 yards against Seattle and Todd Gurley ran for 152 yards and three touchdowns this past Sunday versus the Seahawks. Now Seattle draws maybe the best running back in football, Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is going to be fresh returning from a six-game suspension. Elliott's presence transforms Dallas' entire offense especially Dak Presoctt, making him far more dangerous with play-action and targeting downfield receivers. The Cowboys averaged 31.6 points a game during Elliott's past six games never once falling below 28 points in this span. The desperate Seahawks are going to put up their share of points, too. Russell Wilson is having his finest season one worthy of league MVP status. The Cowboys have defensive injuries, too, particularly in the secondary and at linebacker. The Cowboys have recorded only five sacks in their last six games, lowest in the league during this time frame. So Seattle's below average offensive line isn't going to be as exposed as normal.
12-24-17	Rams v. Titans +7		27-23	Win	100	30 h 32 m	Show
There's line inflation here because of the Rams trampling the Seahawks, 42-7, and the Titans losing to the 49ers after also falling to the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Rams are in a tough situational spot now and the Titans finally are back home where they play much better. Tennessee has won nine of its last 10 home games. Marcus Mariota has had four of his five highest rated passing games at home this season with the other one coming against San Francisco this past Sunday. The Rams have a banged-up secondary. Just two weeks ago, they surrendered four touchdown passes to the Eagles. The lookahead line for this game last week before Sunday's action was Rams minus three. So the line has more than doubled. The Rams were impressive against the Seahawks. But Seattle also played terrible, by far its worst game of the season. Still, that was the Rams' biggest victory in more than a decade and all but clinched the NFC West Division title for them. The Rams have a lot of youth, including their head coach. They have to travel cross-country in an obvious letdown spot right before Christmas. They're going to encounter a desperate and physical Titans team. Tennessee has the ability to control clock, taking advantage of LA's 24th-ranked run defense with one of the better running back tandems in the league with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A hidden key to the Rams' success is their special teams. Now those special teams took a monster hit with Greg Zuerlein out for the season with a herniated disc in his back. He was having one of the best kicking seasons in NFL history leading the league in scoring while making 38 of 40 field goals. So the Rams go from having the best kicker in football to going with unknown Sam Ficken.
12-24-17	Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins		11-27	Loss	-110	30 h 31 m	Show
The bar is not set very high here for Denver to cover, plus I have to believe the veteran Broncos show up knowing Vance Joseph isn't likely to be fired and the roster will be retooled during the off-season. This is an important showcase game for the Broncos especially quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Both could see action. I don't like either player, although Osweiler is coming off a rare splendid performance. Keep in mind, though, Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense and will be without Zach Brown, the top tackler in the league. The Redskins defense had to defend 80 plays last week, a monster number made worse by this being so late in the season. So they could easily wilt. The Broncos will be the much fresher team since they played last Thursday. I do like the Broncos' defense very much. This is a defense that carried them to a Super Bowl victory just two seasons ago and still retains dominant pass rushers and lock down defensive backs. Denver has been playing its best defense during the past two weeks holding the Jets and Colts to a combined 13 points and less than 350 yards. The Broncos defense can dominate weak offenses and Washington's offense is sputtering done in by a cluster injury problem in the offensive line and its top weapons out. The Redskins permitted 23 sacks last season. They've allowed 38 already this season and will be minus their best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out with a knee injury. The Redskins could have another new offensive line combination this week depending on injuries. Kirk Cousins can't generate much offense anymore because of his makeshift offensive line and down his top receiver, Jordan Reed, and best running back, Chris Thompson. Washington has weak special teams, too, so its offense doesn't often get good starting field position. I'm expecting the crowd count to be way down with this game rendered meaningless so the Redskins' home field advantage is reduced.
12-17-17	Titans +2 v. 49ers		23-25	Push	0	58 h 36 m	Show
The 49ers are rejuvenated thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo. But let's not go overboard here. San Francisco is 2-0 since Garoppolo became the starter beating the Bears and Texans. The Titans are a clear level higher than those teams if not two levels better. The Titans are off a bad 12-7 road loss to Arizona this past Sunday. Before that, though, the Titans had won six of seven. Tennessee's offense is capable of much better than it has shown lately. Marcus Mariotta has had some bad luck with interceptions. He remains an emerging franchise quarterback with two solid running backs. The Titans' defense is somewhat underrated having allowed 20 or fewer points in all but one of their last seven games. The Titans are very much in the playoff picture holding down the No. 1 spot right now for an AFC wild-card berth. However, their last two regular season games are against the Rams and Jaguars. So they can't afford to lose this game. The Titans are putting tremendous effort and concentration into securing a win here. That's why the team has spent this week in California practicing on grass in warm weather after playing in Arizona this past Sunday. The 49ers are improved due to Garoppolo. They still aren't a good team, though. Far from it. San Francisco doesn't usually play well either versus good teams going 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against above .500 opponents. The 49ers have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 home games, too.
12-17-17	Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47		42-7	Win	100	58 h 31 m	Show
Seattle's once dominant defense isn't so fierce when five of its top six defenders are likely to be out. The Seahawks definitely won't have their best cornerback, Richard Sherman, nor their best pass rusher, Cliff Avril. Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor also is sidelined. I'd be surprised if Pro Bowl linebackers Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and K.J. Wright (concussion) can play, too, after both were injured last Sunday. The Seahawks gave up 30 points to Blake Bortles and the Jaguars this past Sunday because of their depleted defense. Now they face the No. 2 scoring offense in the league. The Rams average 30.5 points. Their offense has been very consistent putting up 32 or more points in five of the last seven games. The Rams have a top-five runner in Todd Gurley and the top kicker in football, Greg Zuerlein. He's made 36 of 38 field goals this season. Given Gurley, decent receivers and much better coaching, Jared Goff has emerged as a solid quarterback in his second season. The Rams get back Robert Woods, who has been their most consistent receiver. Offensive left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who is having another strong season, is on track to play, too, after nursing a knee injury. So the Rams offense should be at full strength. Russell Wilson makes Seattle's offense dangerous. Wilson has accounted for 32 touchdowns, including running or passing in each of the Seahawks' last 25 offensive touchdowns. He's a strong MVP candidate. The Seahawks are averaging 25.7 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 24 points in each of their past four games, including getting 24 points on the road against Jacksonville, the top defensive team in the NFL. The Rams defense, like the Seahawks defense, is banged-up. LA's secondary is weakened by cornerback Kayvon Webster being out with a torn Achilles tendon suffered last week. The Rams have other injuries in their defensive backfield and middle linebacker Alec Ogletree is dealing with a hyberextended elbow. Weather-wise, light rain is expected but temperatures will be in the 50s with little wind.
12-17-17	Packers v. Panthers -137	Top	24-31	Win	100	54 h 19 m	Show
Everything is being made of Aaron Rodgers returning for this game. There are four factors to consider, though, that should temper the high enthusiasm of Rodgers' return. No. 4: Rodgers has missed the past seven games. So he could be rusty. Very rusty. His teammates have made the adjustment to Brett Hundley. Now they must revert back to Rodgers against a defense that gives up the fifth-fewest yards in the NFL. No. 3: Rodgers was out with a broken right collarbone. He's going to have to be careful and the Packers know this. That should limit his running, which is one of the things that make him great. Rodgers can't afford to take any shots. Green Bay has surrendered 43 sacks. That's third-highest in the league. Rodgers must curb is recklessness. He will be under orders to be careful. That could reduce his effectiveness. No. 2: Carolina is home and tied for first in the NFC South Division. The Panthers need to win, too. No. 1: Carolina is the better team. The Panthers are 9-4 and playing well with five wins in their last six games. The Panthers have a far better defense than the Packers, who rank 26th in total yards, don't rush the passer well and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Carolina just put up 31 points on the Vikings, who have a top-three defense. Cam Newton can go hot and cold. This should be one of his hot games against a defense that especially struggles versus mobile quarterbacks. The Packers have beaten one winning team since Week 2 and that was 7-6 Dallas. Rodgers coming back is a nice story. But the deck is stacked against him and Green Bay in this matchup.
12-14-17	Broncos -140 v. Colts	Top	25-13	Win	100	19 h 9 m	Show
This truly has been a lost season for Denver. But the Broncos can handle weak teams and have enough veteran pride to show up for this nationally televised game. If the Broncos play to their talent level on defense and Trevor Siemian plays under control - like he did last week - Denver should have no problem against a very bad Colts team. The Broncos give up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest yards through the air. Von Miller can terrorize Jacoby Brissett, who has been sacked more than any other quarterback this season. The Colts' porous offensive line is made even worse by center Ryan Kelly being out with a concussion. The Colts are the third-lowest scoring team in the league at 16.3 points per game. They rely on 34-year-old Frank Gore to help move the chains. Gore carried the ball 34 times, a career-hign during the Colts' overtime loss in the snow last Sunday against the Bills. He's not going to have anything left in the tank for this short turnaround game. Denver should be able to move the ball against the Cotls, who rank 31st in points allowed at 26.4 per game. Indy also allows the the fourth-most yards per game. They have three rookies in their defensive backfield. Their top cornerback, Rashaan Melvin, is out with a hand injury. The Broncos had their flagging confidence restored last Sunday ending an eight-game losing streak by shutting out the Jets, 23-0. They are capable of shutting out the Colts, too.
12-10-17	Ravens v. Steelers -4		38-39	Loss	-108	30 h 22 m	Show
It's easy to point out how the Steelers have won seven in a row and are 9-0 during their last nine regular-season primetime regualr season games. This handicap for me, though, comes down to trusting the Steelers offense at home to easily outscore Baltimore's pop-gun attack. Ben Roethlisberger is a beast at home. I regard Joe Flacco as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Baltimore's run defense has gotten much better, but its secondary is very much weakened without its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith. The Ravens are vulnerable to Antonio Brown and if their safeties help out with pass coverage - as they need to do - then running lanes open up more for Le'Veon Bell, the leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh is down linebacker Ryan Shazier, their best all-around defensive player. But the Steelers have a very strong pass rush ranking No. 2 with 40 sacks. Shazier does not have a sack on the season. I don't see the Ravens keeping up with Roethilisberger and Co.
12-10-17	Jets v. Broncos +1.5		0-23	Win	100	28 h 39 m	Show
Yes, the Jets have overachieved and Denver has been the most disappointing team in the AFC. But making the Jets a road favorite in this matchup is going too far overboard. The Jets have done their damage at home. They are 1-4 on the road with their lone away victory coming against the winless Browns in a game they were outplayed and outyarded in. Denver's defense has top 10 talent. Many of the same defenders were on the Broncos' Super Bowl team of just two years ago. The Broncos can handle journeyman Josh McCown at home. McCown could be without his top receiver as Robby Anderson sustained a hamstring injury during practice Thursday. The Broncos have been done in by atrocious quarterback play. Trevor Siemian, though, is an upgrade on Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Siemian is better than he was last week and is operating against a bottom-10 Jets defense.
12-10-17	Packers v. Browns +3.5		27-21	Loss	-105	70 h 25 m	Show
Points are going to be at a premium in this cold-weather matchup with winds in the 15 mph range. The Packers aren't good enough minus Aaron Rodgers to lay points on the road. The Browns are winless. Yes, that is a fact. It's a mistake, though, to underrate them in this home matchup when they are starved for a victory and catch the Packers perhaps looking ahead to next week when Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return. Cleveland can play effective defense. The Browns have better defensive statistics than the Packers giving up the 10th-fewest yards in the league. The Packers, by contrast, rank 25th in defensive yardage. The Browns held the Chargers to 19 points in Los Angeles last week, while the Packers gave up nearly 400 yards to the Buccaneers at home this past Sunday despite Tampa Bay missing its best running back, Doug Martin, and two of its better starting offensive linemen. The Packers have injuries in their secondary. Cleveland has receiving weapons now to take advantage with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman healthy to join athletic tight end David Njoku and running back Duke Johnson out of the backfield. Quarterback has been the Browns' downfall. But if there's a quarterback who has been as bad, if not even worse than DeShone Kizer, it is Brett Hundley, who has a 70.8 passer rating and a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hundley passed for just 84 yards last week against the Buccaneers, who rank second-to-last in pass defense and were missing starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and safety T.J. Ward. Hundley offers no downfield passing threat. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have done nothing with Hundley at quarterback. The Packers are going to take a conservative approach here running Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones knowing aggressive Browns defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is going to be putting in exotic blitz packages to take advantage of Hundley's lack of pocket presence. The strength of the Browns is their sixth-ranked run defense. So don't look for the Packers to put up many points. I find Mike McCarthy to be an extremely overrated coach fortunate to be propped up by Rodgers. The Packers are 4-15-1 under McCarthy when Rodgers hasn't played.
12-10-17	Cowboys v. Giants +4		30-10	Loss	-110	25 h 12 m	Show
It's been an emotional week for the Giants with Ben McAdoo getting fired and Eli Manning restored as the starting quarterback. Usually controversial weeks are not good for the concentration of a team. But in the Giants' case this is good because it should wake them up. The Giants have underachieved all season. Part of this has been because of a toxic atmosphere. Now, at least for this game against a hated division rival, the Giants should play with passion and intensity. Their defense still has good players and Manning is a big upgrade on Geno Smith. New York has held Dallas to an average of 15 points during the past three meetings. The Cowboys aren't that good without suspended Ezekiel Elliott. Not having him has trickled down to everyone including Dak Prescott, who has a 64.3 passer rating minus Elliott compared to 97.9 with him. Both teams are 1-3 in their last four games. The Cowboys' win during this span came against the Redskins last week at home, 38-14. Dallas was not as special as that score might indicate, though, as the Redskins allowed a punt return for a touchdown and were minus four in turnovers. The Cowboys averaged just 4.2 yards per play. Dallas also has a long injury list. I expect cornerback Orlando Scandrick and David Irving, their second-best pass rusher, to be out for sure.
12-10-17	Bears +6.5 v. Bengals		33-7	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
The Bears aren't good. But neither are the 5-7 Bengals. Cincinnati has just two victories by more than four points. The Bengals are in no position to lay this many points following their brutal Monday night loss to the Steelers, which realistically eliminated them from playoff contention. Marvin Lewis is coaching his final season. He's not going to be able to get his team up for the lowly Bears after they blew a 17-point lead to the Steelers. The Bengals would be hard-pressed to cover a touchdown even if they were healthy - which they are not. The battered Bengals may be minus seven starters if star defensive tackle Geno Atkins can't go because of a toe injury. The Bengals already are down their best running back, Joe MIxon, and top tackler, Vontaze Burfict. They also aren't likely to have linebacker Nick Virgil and three/fourths of their starting secondary with Adam Jones, Dre Kilpatrick and Shawn Williams all injured. I'm not a fan of John Fox. But I can at least trust the Bears to put forth a strong effort against Cincinnati. Fox is coaching for his future. HIs team won't quit. The Bengals offense isn't strong enough to product many points, which the oddsmaker acknowledges with this low total, and their defense is extremely beat-up. The Bears will hang in and are live 'dogs to win straight-up.
12-07-17	Saints v. Falcons +1.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	27 h 4 m	Show
It's always rough being the visitor for the Thursday night NFL game. The Saints' journey is made even more difficult by how late it is in the season when the wear-and-tear really takes a toll. The Saints had a very early bye, too, being idle in Week 5. This marks their third straight marquee matchup having traveled to LA to face the Rams two weeks ago and hosting the Panthers this past Sunday, which was a late day start. These two teams are very even with balanced, potent offenses and improved defenses. But getting the Falcons at home on a short week is worth more than a normal home field advantage especially with the Saints being the more banged-up team. Atlanta has been home for the past three weeks so it has a nice situational edge. Both teams are going to play hard. The Falcons have more at stake, though, besides protecting their home field. They need to win to keep the Saints from taking a major step in clinching the NFC South Division. A loss also would drop the Falcons to 7-6 and put them in the thick of trying to qualify for a highly-competitive wild-card spot. Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer. Matt Ryan is the reigning MVP. Brees historically has been less effective on the road. Julio Jones is the best wideout on the field. He'll be especially dangerous if Marshon Lattimore, the Saints prize rookie cornerback, can't play, or is hobbled, by an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the past two games. If you can't contain Jones, you can't beat the Falcons. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are one of the best running back tandems in the league. They are trumped, however, by Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. They've scored 16 of the Saints' NFL-leading 19 rushing touchdowns. There is a catch here, though: The Saints have key injuries besides Lattimore. Ingram has a toe injury. He didn't practice Wednesday and is questionable. Karma is a sprinter not a workhorse. His effectiveness could be compromised without Ingram to do the heavy lifting. There is more. The Saints also could be minus two starting offensive linemen. Left guard Andrus Peat already has been declared out with a groin injury. He had played in every one of New Orleans' snaps on offense. Left tackle Terron Armstread is questionalbe. He missed last Sunday's game with a groin injury, too. So the short week really hits the Saints hard. The injury news is much brigther for the Falcons. Their star cornerback, Desmond Trufant, has been cleared from his concussion symptoms that caused him to miss last Sunday's 14-9 loss to the Vikings. Nickel back Brian Poole also missed that game due to a back injury. He's expected to play, too. Pick'em type games often are the hardest to get involved in. So while this is far from a max unit recommendation, the Falcons have enough going for them with situation, home field on a short week and favorable injury status to get the nod.
12-03-17	Eagles v. Seahawks +6.5		10-24	Win	100	91 h 49 m	Show
These teams met in the Seahawks' 10th game of the season last year. Seattle was a 6 1/2-point home favorite and won, 26-15. Now, a little more than a year later, the Eagles are favored by nearly that amount. Is a 12-point swing justified? The Eagles are greatly improved. Carson Wentz has become a franchise quarterback. Seattle is missing two defensive back stars, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks have lost their last two home games. But, no, this line is out of whack. I expect the Seahawks to win this game straight-up. Never in Pete Carroll's eight years in Seattle have the Seahawks dropped three home games in a row. Century-Link Field remains the toughest outdoor venue in the league for opposing teams. The Seahawks have a history of stepping up late in the season under Carroll as evidenced by a 19-6-1 ATS mark during their past 26 December games. Seattle's defense still is very good. The Seahawks limit opponents to 98.4 yards rushing. They rank in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense and pass defense. Seattle has held its past two opponents to fewer than 200 yards passing despite not having Sherman and Chancellor. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Seattle's front seven remains imposing especially at home. Wentz has been tremendous. But Russell Wilson is one of the few quarterbacks who trump him. Wilson is the best quarterback in the NFC, accounting for a higher percentage of his team's yards than any other player in the league. Wilson has good receiving targets and his uncanny mobility offsets Seattle's poor offensive line and lack of a ground attack. The Eagles can afford a loss here. The Seahawks can't. The urgency to win is with Seattle.
12-03-17	Panthers +4.5 v. Saints		21-31	Loss	-110	88 h 21 m	Show
Both teams are 8-3 and first place is at stake in the NFC South Division. The Saints are home and have the more dynamic offense. But the Panthers are a strong road club with the superior defense and in revenge mode. The points are generous. So I'm going with the 'dog. New Orleans is much improved defensively. This improvement just makes the Saints average on defense, though. The Saints also may be missing their starting cornerbacks with Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley hoping to gain clearance after sitting out last week with injuries. Carolina has a very strong defense ranking No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and eighth in scoring defense. The Panthers have the No. 3 run defense and are sixth in pass defense. The Saints will have to earn their points. New Orleans has played three strong teams this season - the Vikings, Patriots and Rams. The Saints lost each of those matchups. Aside from beating Carolina, 34-13 in Week 3, the Saints' only other victory against an above .500 team came against the Lions in a wild matchup. Cam Newton played terrible in the Panthers' loss to the Saints. He had a season-low passer rating and threw three interceptions. I expect him to play much better. Newton is far more effective when he's running and that should be the case against the Saints in this division showdown. Carolina has covered in seven of its last eight road games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 6-0 ATS. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans. The Panthers are in a better travel spot, too. They had their bye two weeks ago and then got some rust off playing the Jets this past Sunday. The Saints were fortunate to defeat a beat-up Redskins squad two weeks ago at home and had to return from the West Coast this past Sunday following a loss to the Rams.
12-03-17	Browns v. Chargers OVER 42.5		10-19	Loss	-110	96 h 39 m	Show
The Chargers are averaging 41 points during their last two games. The well-balanced Chargers attack is going to produce a large share of points against an overworked Cleveland defense that no longer has its best defensive back (traded Joe Haden) and linebacker (injured Jamie Collins.) Cleveland ranks 30th in scoring defense giving up 26.3 points a game. The Chargers may even try to pour it on the Browns being in revenge mode. The Browns upset the Chargers for their only victory last season. The key is having the Browns produce points. I believe they will be more offensive-minded this week. DeShone Kizer can move the ball and is a running threat. He finally has two quality wide receiving targets with Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon set to make his season debut. The Browns also have one of the better receiving running backs in the NFL in Duke Johnson.
12-03-17	49ers v. Bears OVER 40.5		15-14	Loss	-110	94 h 41 m	Show
I like each team's chances of putting up at least three touchdowns. The weather is going to cooperate with temperatures in the 40s and little wind. The 49ers should get a spark with Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start for them. Garoppolo is used to Chicago weather being from Arlington Heights, which is about 30 miles away from Solider Field. Garoppolo played at Eastern Illinois. He's an upgrade on C.J. Beathard. The Bears are missing a number of key defenders, including Leonard Floyd, Jerrell Freeman, Willie Young and Quintin Demps. John Fox should take the training wheels off Mitch Trubisky. The 49ers rank among the bottom five teams in points allowed, yards given up and rushing yards. Their secondary is decimated by injuries.
12-03-17	Bucs v. Packers +1.5		20-26	Win	100	86 h 35 m	Show
Jameis Winston's return is the big news for Tampa Bay. But underneath that headline should be that the Buccaneers are going to be without two starting offensive linemen, right tackle Demar Dotson and center Ali Marpet. Both were injured this past Sunday and are out for the season with knee injuries. They were among the Buccaneers' top three offensive linemen. Doug Martin likely is out, too, for Tampa Bay after suffering a concussion. He's by far the Buccaneers' best running back. Winston might be rusty after being out a month. He's a hot and cold quarterback capable of throwing multiple touchdown passes, or multiple interceptions. The Buccaneers are 4-7 and headed nowhere. Their victories have been against foes who have a 13-31 combined record. The Packers' offense finally showed life under Brett Hundley on the road in Pittsburgh against a very strong defense, one much better than Tampa Bay's. The Packers put up 28 points, the second-most points the Steelers have allowed all season. That has to boost Hundley's confidence. Jamaal Williams has been solid at running back and Hundley should have ample time to find Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb since the Buccaneers lack a pass rush ranking last in sacks with 15. The Buccaneers also are at the bottom in total defense.
11-26-17	Packers v. Steelers -14	Top	28-31	Loss	-104	60 h 44 m	Show
You have to go all the way back to 1976 to find the last time the Packers were two-touchdown underdogs like they are here. I've been closely following the Packers since the early 1960's. It hasn't all been Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. I've seen a lot of bad Green Bay quarterbacks. Brett Hundley can take his place among them. Hundley has played 19 quarters. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 2-to-10. He's been sacked 17 times and his passer rating is 63.6. The Packers are averaging 13.4 points in the five games Hundley has played since replacing the injured Rodgers. All but one of Hundley's starts have come at home, too. Now the Packers have to play at Heinz Field where they will be lucky to score 10 points against a Pittsburgh defense that is second in sacks with 34. The Steelers defense is solid up front, has linebackers who run and hit and have a strong secondary with physical safeties in the middle. No team has scored more than 17 points on the Steelers during their past five games. Hundley isn't playing with a full deck either. Green Bay is down to third-string running back Jamaal Williams and has a huge hole at offensive right tackle. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have been exposed as mediocre commodities nearly totally dependent on Rodgers setting them up. Davonte Adams has been the Packers' only effective receiving target since Rodgers went down. Unfortunately for the Packers, they also face great obstacles on defense. The Steelers have tremendous weapons and their offense is playing at their highest level coming off a 40-17 victory against Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger has helped Pittsburgh win five in a row by throwing for 1,328 yards, 10 touchdowns and compiling a 102.7 quarterback rating during this span. Antonio Brown is leading the NFL in receptions and yards. Le'Veon Bell is back leading the league in rushing. The Packers have a cluster injury problem in their secondary and may be without linebacker Clay Matthews and underrated nose tackle Kenny Clark. Pittsburgh is on extra rest and sure to be motivated with this being a nationally televised home game. Since Heinz Field opened in 2001, the Steelers are 19-3 in prime time night games when Roethlisberger has been under center. So, yes, this is that time to lay heavy wood in an NFL game.
11-26-17	Titans -3 v. Colts		20-16	Win	100	53 h 2 m	Show
I get that Marcus Mariota has a poor road record. But the difference between these two teams is far more than a field goal. That was proven back in Week 6 when the Titans controlled the ball for nearly 36 minutes in whipping the Colts, 36-22. So what has changed? Nothing. Andrew Luck was last spotted in Europe. The Colts offense is several tiers below the Titans not only at quarterback, but in the offensive line and running back. The Colts have the best wide receiver in T.Y. Hilton, but the Titans have the superior tight end and the second and third-best wideouts. Mariota wasn't even 100 percent when the Titans defeated the Colts by two touchdowns. He is now. The Colts' defense is well below average with few legitimate NFL starters. The Colts are off a bye, but the Titans also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Titans have playoff motivation. The Colts have no such incentive and could be flat drawing their bye so late in the season. It could be difficult for them to rejuvenate their juices especially with no playoff hope.
11-26-17	Bucs +10.5 v. Falcons		20-34	Loss	-135	51 h 16 m	Show
Atlanta isn't nearly as good as last season, while the Buccaneers are playing better with the pressure off winning their last two, both with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The Falcons have a below .500 ATS mark. They are 3-4 SU in their last seven games. Only once in their last eight games have they won by more than five points. The Falcons' Big Three of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are not matching last year's marks. Ryan is averaging 53 fewer yards passing per game. Jones has only one touchdown and just two 100-yard receiving games. Freeman could be out of action for a second straight game due to a concussion. The Buccaneers have gotten healthier on defense. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay has won and covered in three of its last four meetings against the Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a Monday upset road win against the always physical Seahawks. So the Falcons are on a short week.
11-23-17	Vikings -135 v. Lions	Top	30-23	Win	100	72 h 46 m	Show
Matthew Stafford is a good quarterback. He's not elite, though, and he has no ground game and just an average at best offensive line. The Vikings have a vastly superior defense and more playmakers on offense than the Lions do. So I don't see this game being close at all. The Vikings have held seven of their last eight opponents to 17 points or fewer. This past Sunday they held the Rams, the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL entering the week, to just seven points. Minnesota doesn't have a defensive weakness. Under defensive guru Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have played the Lions seven times. Detroit is averaging 16.1 points in those matchups. Zimmer knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions were lucky to beat the Browns and Bears during the past two weeks. Case Keenum doesn't have Stafford's talent. But he's been doing a good job and has better receiving weapons with Adam Thielen, who leads the NFL in receiving yardage, Stefon Diggs and tight end Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings' offensive line has been playing much better, too, yielding only one sack in the last five games.
11-19-17	Patriots v. Raiders OVER 52		33-8	Loss	-109	135 h 46 m	Show
The Raiders are giving up an average of 29.3 points in their last three games. They were torched by Jay Cutler in their last game. Tom Brady should have a field day versus a banged-up Raiders secondary that still does not have an interception. The Patriots' offense is healthy and back on track with the offensive line playing better and Bill Belichick's many role players fitting in. The Patriots have four good running backs to attack the Raiders, who have to be concerned about how they're going to match up against Rob Gronkowski and dangerous speedster Brandin Cooks. I'm expecting New England to put up a long of points here. Note that this game is being played in Mexico City, which has a very high elevation. That could mean defenses, especially Oakland's, will be tired and worn out earlier than usual.
11-19-17	Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	33-8	Win	100	143 h 46 m	Show
The Patriots are coming together both offensively and defensively. New England hasn't allowed more than 17 points to any of its past five opponents holding those foes to an average of 13.4 points during this span. Tom Brady is having another masterful season. He should pick apart a soft Raiders secondary that still does not have an interception yet. Dion Lewis is coming on, Rob Gronkowski is healthy and speedster Brandin Cooks has to be taken into account, too. The Raiders were torched by Jay Cutler in their last game. So they're very vulnerable to the much superior Brady. Derek Carr still might not be 100 percent. He's not going to be able to keep up with Brady. This game is being played in high altitude in Mexico City. The Patriots just played the Broncos in Denver and are staying in Colorado this week to get fully acclimitated to the higher elevation.
11-19-17	Chiefs v. Giants OVER 43.5		9-12	Loss	-120	99 h 46 m	Show
The Chiefs should rack up a lot of points going against a Giants defense that has shown signs of quitting. Morale is low on New York to say the least. New York has given up a combined 106 points in its last three games. The names are there on the Giants defense. But the production isn't. Jason Pierre-Paul and Landon Collins are having terrible seasons. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Janoris Jenkins have taken turns getting suspended by the team. Olivier Vernon isn't 100 percent. Eli Apple has gotten worse. The Giants have surrendered four touchdown passes of 47 or more yards during their last two games. They were torched by C.J. Beathard and the toothless 49ers this past Sunday giving up 31 points and more than eight yards per play. The Chiefs rank fifth in points per game and yards. They've had two weeks to prepare and game plan. Alex Smith is having a career season. Travis Kelce is a top-five tight end and should have a monster game as the Giants have given up a touchdown to every tight end they've faced this season. Rookie Kareem Hunt should be rejuvenated. While the Giants defense is off the rails, Eli Manning keeps fighting. The prideful Manning has gotten more in sync with his new receivers. The Giants' ground game has improved, too. The Chiefs are no prize on defense especially on the road where they've allowed 27 or more points in seven of their past eight away matchups, including the last six.
11-19-17	Jaguars v. Browns +8.5		19-7	Loss	-115	28 h 28 m	Show
I understand the Browns are snake bit and find ways to not only lose games, but fail to cover spreads. But I have to take more than a touchdown here with Cleveland. The oddsmaker is projecting a low score and I concur. That means points should be at a premium. The Browns rank 11th in total defense and fourth in run defense. They have talent on defense. The Jaguars are run-oriented. They could be missing their best runner, rookie Leonard Fournette. He's dealing with an ankle injury. This is Jacksonville's first cold weather game of the season and first away matchup in four weeks. The Jaguars are in a flat spot, winners of three in a row and now playing the worst team in the NFL. Cleveland is hungry for a victory especially at home. Rookie DeShone Kizer is coming off his best game. Kizer has derailed the Browns offense with his turnovers. However, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has been a turnover machine, too, during his NFL career. Improvement should continue to come for Kizer as we're into Week 11. The Jaguars would prefer to grind out a victory without having to trust Bortles especially with a banged-up wide receiving corps. That should ensure a close game. If Bortles throws more than warranted than the Jaguars are going to be in trouble.
11-19-17	Bucs v. Dolphins OVER 41.5		30-20	Win	100	28 h 36 m	Show
The Dolphins have opened up their offense more since they've moved on from Jay Ajayi and a power ground game to set up the pass. Jay Cutler has been playing better and Kenyan Drake, Ajayi's replacement, has more speed and is a more dangerous pass-catcher out of the backfield. Tampa Bay's defense has been terrible on the road surrendering at least 30 points in each of their four away matchups. So I'm expecting the Dolphins to put up a fair share of points. I equally expect the Buccaneers to put up a lot of points, too. Miami's defense is at low ebb allowing an average of 37.3 points in its past three games. The Dolphins are particularly vulnerable on pass defense starting a rookie and second-year player at the cornerback spots. Mike Evans is back from suspension joining DeSean Jackson in giving Ryan Fitzpatrick two big play weapons. Fitzpatrick is turnover-prone, but he knows the Dolphins having played against them three times in the last two seasons enjoying good success against them. The Dolphins have the second-worst quarterback rating in the NFL at 104.8. They have only three interceptions while allowing 16 touchdown throws. Fitzpatrick, given his receiving weapons and running back Doug Martin, should produce good numbers.
11-12-17	Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 46.5		41-16	Loss	-110	103 h 9 m	Show
The Patriots have more trouble against the Broncos, especially playing in Denver, than they do against any other defense. The Patriots have played three times in Denver during the past two seasons and been held to an average of 19.3 points. The Broncos rank in the top-five defensively in fewest yards per game, run defense and pass defense. The prideful Broncos were embarrassed, 51-23, by the Eagles in Philadelphia this past Sunday. That was their third straight road game. Despite that lopsided loss, the Broncos defense still may have the most talent and savvy of any defense in the league. They'll be out to redeem themselves against this hated conference rival. The Patriots are likely to be down one of their better wide receivers with Chris Hogan nursing a shoulder injury. Remember the Patriots are missing Julian Edelman, too. The Patriots' offense has been going downhill averaging 21.8 points a game during their last four games after averaging 32.5 points in their first four games. The flip side is the Patriots' defense is much improved. Since Bill Belichick simplified defensive roles, the Patriots have given up just 12.7 points per game during their last four games. Belichick shouldn't have to game plan too hard facing Brock Osweiler, who has 22 turnovers in 17 starts, but he's had extra prep time anyways with the Patriots being idle last week. Poor quarterbacking is killing the Broncos. If not for two touchdowns in garbage time against the Eagles, one of which was scored by the defense, the Broncos would have scored fewer than 20 points for the sixth consecutive time.
11-12-17	Chargers +4 v. Jaguars		17-20	Win	100	93 h 10 m	Show
Jacksonville is improved, but not enough to be laying more than a field goal to a decent Chargers squad that has won three of their last four with the lone defeat during this span coming to the Patriots. The Jaguars have a minimal home field edge. This is an early start and a long road trip for LA. But the Chargers had a bye last week so there should not be a fatigue factor. Philip Rivers not only gives LA a huge QB edge, but he has the savvy to know how to attack a talented Jacksonville defense. Rivers can move the ball with throws to Keenan Allen in the slot and Melvin Gordon out of the backfield. The Chargers finally have their No. 1 draft pick, wide receiver Mike Williams, ready to contribute. The Chargers defense has been playing well giving up just 37 points during their last three games and gets back linebacker Denzel Perryman from injured reserve. The Jaguars have a limited offense and Blake Bortles is turnover-prone.
11-12-17	Jets v. Bucs +2.5		10-15	Win	100	27 h 16 m	Show
The Jets have no business laying points on the road where they are 1-3 SU and ATS. New York's lone road win was a fluke against the Browns. The Jets were totally outplayed and outgained by 207 yards. They won because of rookie QB DeShone Kizer's turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly is no rookie. He's played well when he's replaced Jameis Winston this season and will be highly motivated going against the last team he played for before coming to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers won't have suspended Mike Evans, but Fitzpatrick still has other weapons, including underrated tight end Cameron Brate. Fitzpatrick plays best against man coverage, which is the Jets' preferred style. There's a chance, too, the Jets could be missing their top cornerback, Morris Claiborne. The Jets won't have their second-best wideout, suspended Jeremy Kerley, and might also be without defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. The Buccaneers have received good news on the injury front. They get back their best cornerback, Brent Grimes, and could have a healthy offensive line. The Jets are one of the few teams who haven't had their bye yet. That comes next week. So their focus may be off.
11-12-17	Vikings v. Redskins OVER 40.5		38-30	Win	100	27 h 13 m	Show
The combination of Kirk Cousins and a mediocre Washington defense makes the Redskins a very good Over team. The proof is in the record: 22 Overs in Washington's past 29 games. I see that trend continuing here. The Redskins are expected to get back some of their injured offense linemen along with wide receiver Jamison Crowder and possibly star tight end Jordan Reed. Minnesota has a very good defense - hence the low total. But Cousins can attack the Vikings with quick, short passes. He has the personnel and astute coaching from Jay Gruden to accomplish this. There may not be a more dangerous pass-catching running back than Chris Thompson. I expect the Vikings to put up their share of points, too. Case Keenum is playing to keep his starting position with Teddy Bridgewater back from injury. The Redskins are vulnerable to the Vikings' ground attack and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Already down two key run-stuffers with lineman Jonathan Allen and inside linebacker Mason Foster out, the Redskins may be msising their best linebacker, Zach Brown. He missed practice because of an ankle injury. The Vikings rank in the top 10 in rushing. The Redskins have been gashed on the ground the past two weeks by the Seahawks - who are not a good running team - and the Cowboys surrendering an average of 158.5 yards rushing to those two teams.
11-12-17	Packers +6 v. Bears	Top	23-16	Win	100	27 h 19 m	Show
Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 13 of the last 15 meetings. The Packers were 7 1/2-point favorites in Week 4 when they rolled past the Bears, 35-14. But now the spread has swung two touchdowns the other way with Aaron Rodgers out. It's too much of an ajustment. The Packers are better than they showed this past Monday night and the Bears aren't good enough to lay this many points. Sure Brent Hundley is going through growing pains filling in for Rodgers. But so is Bears rookie quarterback Mich Trubisky, who will be making only his fifth start. The Packers have far better receiving weapons than the Bears. Trubisky just lost his security blankett, too, with tight end Zach Miller suffering a serious leg injury. Trubisky is a game manager and game managers operating an ultra-conservative offense behind a defensive-minded coach, John Fox, aren't a team to back at this price. The Packers pulled in ranks after releasing distractful Martellus Bennett. Look for the unified, prideful Packers to beat the Bears here.
11-09-17	Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals	Top	22-16	Win	100	36 h 39 m	Show
Seattle isn't as good as it has been the past few years. Attrition has taken a toll on the Seahawks' defense. But the Seahawks are still a well above team. Arizona is a bottom feeder with Drew Stanton behind center. If the Seahawks didn't blow Sunday's game to the Redskins, this line would look much higher. Seattle was better than Washington, though, outgaining the Redskins by nearly 200 yards. The Seahawks couldn't overcome a franchise-record 16 penalties and Blair Walsh missing three field goals. Walsh was 12 of 13 in field goals prior to that game. The Seahawks are taking heavy criticism for that bad disappointing performance. They are in bounce back mold and I fully expect that to happen. Russell Wilson is having a huge season. Paul Richardson is having a breakout season joining Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham to provide strong receivers for Wilson. Seattle's offensive line is upgrade with the addition of Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown. Thomas Rawls is healthy giving Seattle its best running back option. Arizona's defense is merely average. During their past four games, the Cardinals have gone against three good passing teams - the Eagles, Rams and Buccaneers. The Cardinals allowed an average of 419 yards through the air against those foes. Arizona has recovered only one fumble on the season and is tied for 25th in takeaways/giveaways at minus 4. The Cardinals' offensive line has started to play better. However, the Cardinals' attack now consists of just ancient Adrian Peterson running and Larry Fitzgerald catching short passes. Stanton is an immobile stiff, who can't hurt a defense with downfield passes. Peterson is 32, a senior citizen by running back age. He just ran a career-high 37 times this past Sunday. Now he's playing on a short week. His legs won't be there. The Seahawks aren't going to have a problem shutting down the Cardinals' scaled-back, limited attack and Arizona's defense isn't strong enough to contain Wilson and his weapons.
11-06-17	Lions v. Packers +3	Top	30-17	Loss	-120	15 h 28 m	Show
Detroit a road favorite against the Packers at Lambeau Field where the Lions have lost nine of the past 10 times? It's true. That's what happens when Aaron Rodgers is out. Is this justified? The answer is no on many counts. Let's begin with the fact that Detroit is just a mediocre team. Much is being made of Green Bay having lost two in a row. Well the Lions have dropped three straight - home to the Panthers, at the Saints and home to the Steelers. The Lions are 3-4 with two of those victories coming against the Cardinals and Giants during the first two weeks of the season. The Lions can't run the ball - rushing for more than 96 yards just once - and have a below average defense ranking 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in yards given up. The Lions are without their best pass rusher, Kerry Hyder, and top run-defender, Haloti Ngata. Winning a division road game without a good running attack and defense is extremely difficult unless you have a superstar quarterback. Matthew Stafford is above average. He's not elite, though. The situation is against the Lions. The Packers desperately needed a bye to regroup. They've had two weeks to game plan and get healthy. Green Bay's offensive line is expected to be at full strength. Green Bay is 9-2 following a bye under Mike McCarthy. None of those losses came at home. The Packers have owned the Lions through the years winning 16 of the past 20 meetings. It's going to be cold. The Lions have become a warm weather team playing in a dome. All of this, though, is secondary to how Brett Hundley performs. This is the key. I say Hundley comes through here. Hundley was maybe the best quarterback in the league during preseason. OK, that was preseason facing vanilla defenses and backups. But he did display talent both with his arm and running ability. Now many are down on Hundley because of poor performances against the Vikings - when he suddenly was thrust into the game following Rodgers' broken collarbone - and versus the Saints. Those two teams have a combined record of 12-4 and rank third and 10th, respectively, in fewest points allowed per game. Their defenses are far superior to Detroit's defense. The Saints are giving up an average of 13 points during their last three games. This will be Hundley's second start. McCarthy and his ace offensive staff have had 15 days to work with Hundley and game plan for this matchup. Hundley not only will be fully assimilated into the offense, but adjustments will be made that feed into Hundley's strengths such as read-option plays. As added bonuses, Hundley has a healthy offensive line - something he wasn't close to having before - and the emergence of Aaron Jones has given Green Bay a respectable ground game. The Packers have had two of their three best rushing games during their last three games because of Jones, who has run for 413 yards and three touchdowns during this span. The Lions probably will try to take away Jones by putting an extra defender in the box forcing Hundley to beat them. Hundley can do that with one of the deepest receiving groups in the NFL headed by Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. No Hundley isn't close to being Rodgers. But he has a balanced attack behind him, should be coached up with ample prep time and with a healthy offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage against a mediocre defense playing on the road.
11-05-17	Raiders v. Dolphins OVER 44		27-24	Win	100	84 h 60 m	Show
The Raiders are going to put up their share of points with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree working against a vulnerable Miami defensive back seven. I'm not a fan of the Dolphins secondary and their linebackers are more dirty than good. The key question is will the Dolphins come up with their share of points to push this Over? Miami ranks last in the NFL in scoring and yards per game. I believe Miami will. Both Jay Cutler and Davante Parker return to the lineup from injuries. Adam Gase is a sharp offensive coach. The Dolphins dealt Jay Ajayi this week. That changes the dynamics of their offense. I see the Dolphins throwing more than usual against the Raiders, who rank 26th in pass defense and are the only team in the NFL not to have an interception. Ajayi was capable of 200-yard rushing games, but he wasn't consistent. The Dolphins have more spreed in their backfield now and their running backs are better pass catchers than Ajayi.
11-05-17	Redskins v. Seahawks -7	Top	17-14	Loss	-110	145 h 32 m	Show
Seattle's defense is down a notch from its elite status of the past few seasons. The Seahawks can't run the ball either unless it's Russell Wilson taking off on a scramble. But the Seahawks still will beat the Redskins by more than a touchdown being at home and given all of Washington's injuries on both sides of the ball. Seattle's defense still is well above average. The Redskins can't compete against it on the road with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, a weak ground attack and two of their three tight ends injured, including Jordan Reed. There's a chance Washington could be minus four starting offensive linemen plus their top reserve lineman. Wilson is playing at the highest level. His receivers are stepping up especially Paul Richardson. Jimmy Graham is healthier and becoming a factor. The Redskins have key defensive injuries. They are without their best run stuffer, Jonathan Allen. They also are down linebacker Mason Foster and maybe their second-best cornerback, Bashaud Breeland. Special teams play has become an issue, too, for the Redskins.
11-05-17	Broncos +8 v. Eagles		23-51	Loss	-110	28 h 12 m	Show
This is last stand time for the 3-4 Broncos. They have the right personnel to upset the Eagles, who are flying high at 7-1 and due to crash. Philadelphia may take this one for granted with the Broncos making the decision to start Brock Osweiler. The Eagles also have a much bigger game on deck next Sunday - a division game against the Cowboys. The Broncos rank ninth in rushing. They are fourth in time of possession. They can stay on the ground with a trio of decent running backs in C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker. This would limit Osweiler's exposure. Osweiler is helped by getting back wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The Eagles rank 27th in pass defense. Carson Wentz had a monster October throwing a franchise-best 14 TD passes. Wentz, though, is just a second-year QB. He can be loose with the ball and is going against the toughest defense he's faced all season. Denver gives up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest rushing yards per game. The Broncos' cornerbacks are so good they can cover one-on-one and Von Miller is a top edge pass rusher. The Eagles are without their No. 1 offensive lineman, Jason Peters.
11-05-17	Rams v. Giants OVER 42		51-17	Win	100	28 h 10 m	Show
This total is too low for a Rams game. The Rams average 30.3 points a game, second-highest in the league. They draw the Giants without four defensive starters, including star cornerback Janoris Jenkins, pass rusher Olivier Vernon and middle linebacker B.J. Goodson. The Giants have given up 100 yards rushing in six of their last seven games. They are going to have problems controlling Todd Gurley, who ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing. Jared Goff has played better away from home with a road touchdown-to-interception ratio of six-to-zero. New York should contribute its share of points with two weeks to prepare and facing a mediocre Rams defense.
10-29-17	Steelers -145 v. Lions	Top	20-15	Win	100	102 h 54 m	Show
Put simply there is a class difference here. The Steelers are coming on both offensively and defensively. Ben Roethlisberger has a history of playing much better at home, but the Steelers are winning by riding Le'Veon Bell. He's rushed for 484 yards and three touchdowns during the last four games carrying the ball 117 times during this span. Bell's matchup is helped by the Lions not having injured run stuff Haloti Ngata. Because of Roethlisberger, the Steelers are perceived as being bad on the road. Yet they've won seven of their last 10 away games. They also are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in October. The Lions can't just key on Bell because once again Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in football. The Lions limped into their bye having surrendered a combined 79 points to the Panthers - who just were held to three points by the Bears this past Sunday - and Saints during their past two games. The Steelers are tied for second with 24 sacks and give up a league-low 4.4 yards per play. Matthew Stafford does not have a good track record against foes with a winning record. Stafford entered his bye thoroughly beat-up playing behind a porous offensive line. The Lions rank 28th in rushing and they won't have their best receiver, Golden Tate, who is out with a shoulder injury.
10-29-17	Texans v. Seahawks -6		38-41	Loss	-108	10 h 19 m	Show
Going into Seattle is always rough. It's made rougher for the Texans because the Seahawks are playing well - three straight victories - and Houston's focus could be off due to comments made by team owner Bob McNair. McNair's "inmates running the prison" comment has caused a huge distraction among the Texans. Many plan to protest before the game. The Seahawks still have an elite veteran defense. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season, but he's a rookie going into the lion's den here. Houston is 1-6 ATS following a victory.
10-29-17	Falcons -4 v. Jets		25-20	Win	100	95 h 9 m	Show
OK, I get that Atlanta is having a painful Super Bowl hangover. The Falcons have lost three in a row - all to AFC East opponents. Now the Falcons draw the weakest AFC East foe, the Jets. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Falcons. And the Jets are a good foe for them to get well against. I don't see any advantage the Jets have in this matchup with the Falcons holding major edges at the skill position spots. I also like the Falcons' defense better than the Jets particularly with Vic Beasley back in the lineup from injury. Matt Ryan isn't having a magical year like last season. But he's still Matt Ryan, which rates far above Josh McCown and his motley crew of below average wide receivers. The Falcons should dominate with Ryan, Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman. The line is fairly priced, too, because of the Falcons' losing streak.
10-29-17	Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48.5		13-21	Win	100	95 h 39 m	Show
Normally you wouldn't think of these two teams as having defenses you can trust to play Under. But the Chargers are coming off a shutout of Denver. They've given up an average of 12.6 points in their last three games. No team has scored more than 26 points on the Chargers all season. Tom Brady has been sacked 18 times. He only was sacked 15 times in 12 games last season. The Chargers are tied for the fourth-most sacks in the NFL. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa have combined for 16 sacks, which is the most in the league by two teammates. The Patriots have yet to fully replace Julian Edelman in the slot and their red zone touchdown percentage isn't what it has been because of it. New England's defense was record bad during its first four games allowing an average of 32 points. But Bill Belichick has made the proper adjustments simplifying things for his secondary particularly Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon. The Patriots have held their last three opponents to 12.7 points per game. Two of those foes, the Buccaneers and Falcons, have strong offenses. Philip Rivers has played better on the road than at home, but his performance has been down the past couple of seasons. He's still an above average quarterback, but not the elite gunslinger of previous years.
10-29-17	Colts v. Bengals OVER 42		23-24	Win	100	7 h 42 m	Show
The Colts are giving up an average of 42.7 points in three games on the road this season. Indy is going to be missing perhaps its three best defensive players here. Linebacker John Simon is out. So are defensive backs Rashaan Melvin and Malik Hooker. Melvin, not Vontae Davis, had emerged as the Colts' top cornerback. Hooker leads the Colts in interceptions. The Colts do not have good depth in the secondary. The Bengals are due to breakout offensively given their skill position talent, which is made better with rookie speedster wide receiver John Ross healthy at last. The Colts have some talented skill position players, too. T.Y. Hilton is a top-15 wide receiver and Marlon Mack an exciting runner, who is starting to get more playing time. Look for him to be effective on screen passes. There is bad weather across the NFL landscape today - but not in Cincinnati. No rain is in the forecast. Temperatures are in the middle 40's with little wind.
10-23-17	Redskins v. Eagles OVER 48.5	Top	24-34	Win	100	123 h 7 m	Show
Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But they don't get nearly the respect they deserve especially Cousins. Because of Cousins, the Redskins have become a great Over team. They have gone above the total in 20 of their last 26 games and 13 of their past 16 road contests. Cousins has the third-highest quarterback rating in the league. He's averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and has only two interceptions in 158 attempts. He's on pace to throw for more than 4,000 yards for a third consecutive year. Cousins accomplishes this without a star wide receiver or good running back. The Eagles are vulnerable in their secondary because of injuries. Wentz has justified the Eagles' investment in him. He ranks No. 7 in the NFL in passing. He entered this week tied for second with the most touchdown passes with 13. Wentz has been picked off only once in his last 135 attempts. The Redskins will be missing two key defenders, cornerback Josh Norman and lineman Jonathan Allen. Norman is one of the top cornerbacks in the league. Allen was one of the better run defenders. Washington also may be without its No. 2 cornerback, Bashaud Breeland. He suffered a knee injury last week and is questionable.
10-22-17	Broncos +1.5 v. Chargers		0-21	Loss	-110	96 h 2 m	Show
The Chargers have yet to win or cover a game at home this season. It's not a surprise the Chargers are 0-3 at StubHub Center since they have no home field advantage in LA. Playing there is almost like being on the road. Philip Rivers certainly isn't fond of the team's new venue. He has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to 7-to-2 on the road. Rivers is having a down year for the second straight season. He ranks a below average 18th in passer ratings. The Broncos give up the fewest yards per game in the NFL. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are one of the best, if nto the best, cornerback tandem in the league. The Broncos have beaten the Chargers 11 of the last 13 times they've met, including a victory opening week. The Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. Denver is sure to be fired-up, too, after laying an egg on national TV this past Sunday night in a shocking home loss to the Giants.
10-22-17	Saints -5.5 v. Packers		26-17	Win	100	94 h 51 m	Show
No player is more important to his team than Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. But the Packers' problems, unfortunately, go beyond Rodgers. Green Bay has cluster injury problems on the offensive line and in the secondary. The Packers are still shell shocked after losing Rodgers for the season with a broken collarbone. They played their worst game in years in losing to the Vikings this past Sunday. The Packers have their bye next week. They'll need it. They aren't ready for this week. The Saints are playing their best ball in years winning three in a row. The Saints have defeated the Panthers, Dolphins and Lions by a combined score of 106-51 during this span. The Saints beat the Panthers and Dolphins on the road. The Saints have only lost the ball three times. So they shouldn't beat themselves here. Drew Brees is as good as ever. His offensive line is improved and he has two good running backs and a deep group of wide receivers, who can take advantage of Green Bay's thin secondary. Green Bay lost six of seven games when it played offenses ranked 15th or better in offensive efficiency last year. And that was with Rodgters. New Orleans has improved its defense, too. It's now to the point where it is respectable. Look for the Saints to do plenty of blitzing against Brett Hundley, set to make his first pro start. Hundley has yet to prove that he has good pocket presence. The Packers had to finish against the Vikings with three third-stringers in their offensive line - left tackle Justin McCray, left guard Lucas Patrick and right tackle Ulrick John. McCray and John were terrible. This isnt' a question of good players having an off-game. These guys are backups who aren't nearly talented enough to be starters.
10-22-17	Panthers v. Bears OVER 40.5		3-17	Loss	-112	93 h 1 m	Show
This is a very low total in today's NFL world where rules now favor offense so much more than defense. Carolina should be able to run at least semi-successfully on the Bears, who rank 15th in rush defense. This would set up Cam Newton. Despite losing star tight end Greg Olsen, Newton has two tall quality wideouts in Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. Rookie speedster Curtis Samuel has returned from injury. He's due to make his presence known. Newton also has a dangerous target out of the backfield in first-round rookie draft choice Christian McCaffrey. So Newton has a lot of weapons. A key to Carolina doing well offensively is the expected return of Ryan Kalil, one of the better centers in the league. He's been out with a neck problem for the past five weeks. The Bears are the third-best rushing team in the NFL. Jordan Howard is one of the best running backs in football. Mitch Trubisky will be making his third start and is at home. So he should show improvement. Trubisky gives the Bears a scrambling component at quarterback, something they lacked when Mike Glennon was behind center. Chicago would catch a nice break if star linebacker Luke Kuechly is ruled out after suffering a concussion last week.
10-22-17	Cardinals v. Rams OVER 47		0-33	Loss	-110	92 h 14 m	Show
The Cardinals found their offense last week against Tampa Bay putting up 38 points and 432 yards. Arizona's much maligned offensive line played better and Adrian Peterson showed he still has something left. The Rams are the most improved offensive team in the NFL. In fact, they're the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 29.8 points a game. Jared Goff can take advantage of a Cardinals secondary that has a huge hole at their No. 2 cornerback spot. The Cardinals really are in trouble if No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson can't go because of a quad injury suffered last week. Goff's huge improvement has led to a resurgence for Todd Gurley, who is back in the argument for best back in the league. Gurley is the leading rusher in the NFC and tied for first in touchdowns. The Rams have gone Over in five of their six games.
10-22-17	Jets v. Dolphins -3	Top	28-31	Push	0	127 h 49 m	Show
The linesmaker opened this game Miami minus 3 at home. This basically is saying then that these two teams are even if you factor in about a three-point home field edge for the Dolphins. My checkmarks give the Dolphins far more edges than the Jets. The situational element also favors Miami. The Jets are coming off a huge effort and a near-victory against their arch-rival the Patriots. The Dolphins have quick revenge after being embarrassed by the Jets in Week 3. The Jets thoroughly outplayed the Dolphins in their 20-6 win. The Dolphins were lucky they weren't shut out. But there were extenuating circumstances. Hurricane Irma had caused the Dolphins to not play opening week. The Dolphins then went to the West Coast and beat the Chargers in Week 2. Then they had to fly to the East Coast to play the Jets. Miami's offense still was a work in progress so early in the season with Jay Cutler getting in sync with his new team. The Dolphins' offense isn't good by any means. But they have some stability now with all that back-and-forth traveling, including a trip to London in Week 4, finally ending. The Dolphins showed a lot of heart coming back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to upset the Falcons on the road this past Sunday. Cutler did enough for Miami to win that game and Jay Ajayi had his best game of the season with 130 yards rushing. Ajayi will be the best running back on the field. Jarvis Landry is the best wideout of the two teams. DaVante Parker would be the second-best wideout if he's recovered from an ankle injury. Josh McCown is not better than Cutler. The Dolphins definitely have the better defense ranking third in fewest points allowed per game and 11th in fewest yards given up. The Jets were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns two weeks ago. Cleveland outgained New York by 202 yards and had eight more first downs. The Browns were done in by three turnovers and two missed field goals. This is the spot to recognize the Jets for being who we thought they were - a terrible team.
10-15-17	Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 49.5		17-16	Win	100	11 h 29 m	Show
The total is set high here because Derek Carr is back behind center after suffering a fracture in his back that caused him to miss last week. That type of injury normally keeps a player out 2-to-6 weeks. Carr still has pain in his back. The Chargers have a strong pass rush thanks to Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 12 sacks. That's the most in the league among two teammates. So the Raiders have to be extremely careful with their franchise quarterback. That likely means more running plays and short, quick passes where Carr isn't so much at risk. This will keep the clock moving. Oakland's offense hasn't been in gear. The Raiders have put up only 37 points in their last three games. Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch are having terrible seasons so far. The Chargers' success rides on Philip Rivers and he isn't having a good season either. Rivers is completing less than 60 percent of his throws, has five interceptions and ranks just 21st in passer ratings. LA is likely to run more than usual, too, because the Raiders have a trio of undersized linebackers and middle linebacker, Marquel Lee, is out. Another reason not to expect a Rivers-Carr shootout is the Enviornmental Protection Agency has said the air quality is unhealthy for this game, which is being played at the Oakland Coliseum. This is due to the lingering North Bay fires. I look at this circumstance as a plus for the Under because the teams could run the ball more during the final quarter trying to gain the upper hand by controlling the trenches.
10-15-17	49ers v. Redskins OVER 46.5		24-26	Win	100	83 h 41 m	Show
Both team's offenses are heating up. After five games, the 49ers are showing signs of picking up Kyle Shanahan's intrigue schemes and designs. Brian Hoyer is coming off his best game as a 49er throwing for two touchdown passes and 353 yards while compiling a 101.1 passer rating against the Colts on the road last week. The Redskins will be without their elite cornerback, injured Josh Norman. Shanahan and Pierre Garcon, who is having a good year for the 49ers, know the Redskins well. Shanahan was Washington's offensive coordinator from 2010-2013 while Garcon played the previous five seasons for the Redskins. They will know the soft spots in the Redskins' coverage. Kirk Cousins is back on track for Washington. He's 39-for-54 for 585 yards with a five-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Redskins will be fresh having had their bye last week. The time off has allowed star tight end Jordan Reed to be healthy for the first time this season. The 49ers defense gives up the fifth-most yards per game and is second-to-last in opponent's third-down percentage. San Francisco's defense could get tired early, too. This marks San Francisco's third consecutive road game. It's an early start time, too, for the 49ers. The 49ers defense has had to endure overtime games the past two weeks. They've been on the field 37:17 and 36:15 during the past two games.
10-15-17	Bears v. Ravens -5		27-24	Loss	-105	1 h 17 m	Show
Tough spot for the Bears traveling on a short week. Baltimore plays much better at home. The Ravens are 11-0 versus foes starting a rookie QB against them, which is the case here with the Bears and Mitch Trubisky. Ravens defense is far more intimidating at home. Joe Flacco is having a terrible year, but he's getting better each week as more rust comes off. He can put up enough points against a weak Bears secondary.
10-15-17	Patriots -9.5 v. Jets	Top	24-17	Loss	-110	129 h 8 m	Show
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
10-12-17	Eagles v. Panthers -3	Top	28-23	Loss	-115	65 h 53 m	Show
OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span. The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week. Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests. It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe.
10-08-17	Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 45		42-34	Loss	-110	41 h 56 m	Show
Lost in the glare of the recent brilliance of rookies Kareem Hunt and Deshaun Watson is that these are two conservative teams that operate at a slow pace, run the ball a lot and have good defenses. The Texans just could have the best defense in the NFL with J.J. Watt back healthy. This is a sell low on a total that is higher than it should be based in part on the Texans putting up 57 points on the Titans last week and Hunt's fast start. Watson is going to be up-and-down. Justin Houston is getting back to his dominant pass rushing skills of two years when he had 22 sacks. Marcus Peters is a shutdown cornerback. I find Bill O'Brien to be one of the most conservative coaches in the league with a play not-to-lose attitude. On the flip side, I see Alex Smith reverting back to his old check-down, game-manager way of playing especially going against this caliber of defense on the road. Hunt took advantage of a Patriots defense that was far worse than anyone could imagine to put up awesome statistics. He'll find things much rougher here.
10-08-17	Packers v. Cowboys -135	Top	35-31	Loss	-135	151 h 21 m	Show
The Packers could get away with their massive amount of injuries and patchwork offensive line against the lightweight Bears at home last week. But Green Bay is in big trouble against this caliber of foe on the road. The balanced Cowboys can attack Green Bay's youthful secondary and mediocre linebackers through the air with Dez Bryant, who burned the Packers with nine catches, 132 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs last season, and on the ground with Ezekiel Elliott and highly mobile QB Dak Prescott. The Packers surredered 141 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry in their lone road game this season, which was at Atlanta. This is a huge revenge game for the Cowboys, who fell to the Packers on a 51-yard field goal at the gun in the postseason, 34-31. Dallas is going to get its points again. The Packers aren't going to be able to keep up with their first five offensive tackles all injured. The Packers got past the Bears using four guards and a center. Lane Taylor, an average guard, played left tackle last week. Justin McCray, a converted guard, played right tackle. Unheralded Lucas Patrick made his NFL debut at left guard. Demarcus Lawrence has become a passing rushing terror for the Cowboys leading the league in sacks. The Packers also could be without their No. 1 running back, Ty Montgomery, and starting wide receiver Davonte Adams. This puts way to much of a load on Aaron Rodgers, who averages less than two touchdow throws per game on the road compared to averaging nearly three touchdown passes when playing at Lambeau Field.
10-08-17	Jets v. Browns +1		17-14	Loss	-114	80 h 49 m	Show
I never thought I would be writing these words this season, but the Jets are going for their third win in a row. Don't expect them to get it. The Jets have defeated the Dolphins and Jaguars in overtime last week. Both wins were achieved at home. They have their bigget game of the season going next week when they host the Patriots. This marks the Jets' lone road game during a four-week span. The Browns' roster is better than one AFC team - the Jets. Cleveland's defense will be bolstered by the return of lineman Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall draft pick. It's an added bonus if nose guard Danny Shelton and linebacker Jamie Colllins also are able to play. The winless Browns have a much stronger sense of urgency than the Jets for this one and they are home. It's not too much to ask Cleveland to simply win this game against a team where they hold a talent edge on in the offensive line and defensively. The Jets are one of the few teams that also doesn't hold an edge against the Browns skill position-wise.
10-08-17	Jaguars v. Steelers -8		30-9	Loss	-110	80 h 48 m	Show
The Steelers play much better at home particularly Ben Roethlisberger, whose passer rating is 24 points higher at Heniz Field since 2014. During the past four years, Roethlisberger has a 62-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to only 24-to-23 on the road. Le'Veon Bell is coming off his best game after a slow start rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. Bell should be in line for another big game versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks last in run defense allowing 165.5 yards on the ground per game. Bell's running should set up Roethlisberger's play-action. The Jaguars seem better coached just because they've figured out their best way to win is run the ball and let Blake Bortles be a game manager rather than a gunslinger. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. But it's not strong enough to carry a weak offense. The Steelers are intimidating and play with a swagger defensively at home. Their offense can put up points fast taking the ball out of Leonard Fournette's hands and forcing Bortles to beat them. That won't happen in Pittsburgh. Bortles has been the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league with a knack for throwing pick-sixes. The Jaguars had to lose a lot of confidence by being outplayed and losing to the lowly Jets last week. This is a kill spot for the Steelers. They've buried much stronger teams that the Jaguars at home.
10-08-17	Bills v. Bengals -150		16-20	Win	100	33 h 17 m	Show
The Bills have overachieved and are in a flat spot following a stunning upset road win against the Falcons last Sunday. This marks Buffalo's third road game in four weeks. The Bengals need this win bad to go to 2-2. They've been much better the past two weeks since a change in offensive coordinators nearly upsetting Green Bay on the road last week falling in overtime. Joe Mixon is a highly talented rookie running back. He's due for a breakout performance. It could come here at home. The Bengals are idle next week so a full effort should be forthcoming. There's also a revenge angle. The Bills nipped the Bengals, 16-12, at Cincinnati last season. Mike Nugent missed a pair of extra points for the Bengals and they lost the indespensible A.J. Green early in that contest.
10-01-17	Giants +3 v. Bucs		23-25	Win	100	98 h 48 m	Show
The Giants are in must-win mode at 0-3. They should have beaten the Eagles last week. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL last season and their defense remains top-rate. Offense has been a major problem for the Giants. But things should click better now that Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy. The timing is good here for the Giants because the Buccaneers have a cluster injury problem on defense with their top defenders injured. Likely out for sure are linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. The Buccaneers also could be missing their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker, along with cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves. Promising pass rusher Noah Spence also is hurt with a separated shoulder. Eli Manning has never lost to Tampa Bay going 5-0. The Buccaneers have failed to cover eight of the last nine times when laying more than two points. The Giants won 11 games last season on their way to making the playoffs. The Buccaneers last made the postseason in 2007. The timing is ripe here for the Giants to get back on track against an inconsistent Bucs offense and extremely banged-up defense.
10-01-17	Eagles v. Chargers		26-24	Loss	-115	97 h 25 m	Show
At 0-3 this is the Chargers' season. They catch the Eagles off a big division win against the Giants in which the Eagles were outgained by nearly two yards per play. The Chargers easily could be 2-1 instead of 0-3 if not for kicking mistakes by rookie Younghoe Koo. Philip Rivers is a high level QB. He's coming off one of the worst games of his career with a 37.2 passer rating and three interceptions against the Chiefs. I believe Rivers will bounce back strong here against an Eagles defense that is vulnerable in the secondary due to injuries and probably will be without its best defensive lineman, injured Fletcher Cox. The Chargers have a huge receiving edge with Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin operating against Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills. The Eagles lost their most versatile threat and a top punt returner when Darren Sproles was injured against the Giants and lost for the season. Philly struggles to run the ball. Sproles was their best player in space. Carson Wentz has been sacked 11 times. Sparked by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, two of the top pass rushers in the league, the Chargers have recorded 11 sacks.
10-01-17	49ers +7 v. Cardinals		15-18	Win	100	23 h 6 m	Show
The Cardinals have allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 11 times, the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Palmer could have more trouble now that the left side of his offensive line has been ruled out as neither left tackle Mike Iupati nor left guard Alex Boone will play. Boone is out with a pectoral injury while Iupati was put on IR. Palmer is past his prime and doesn't have his security blanket, David Johnson. The absence of Johnson greatly weakens not only the Cardinals' ground attack, but also its passing. Johnson is the best pass catching starting running back in football. Arizona's receiving corps is banged-up, too, as neither John Brown nor JJ. Nelson are 100 percent. The 49ers got their offense going against the Rams scoring 39 points while finally showing a grasp of Kyle Shanahan's new offense. The 49ers' defense is improved from last year and better than it showed against the Rams, who are the most improved offensive team in the league. The 49ers have had extra rest and practice time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are on a short week having played this past Monday night. The Cardinals haven't been very good at home either failing to cover 12 of their last 18 home games.
10-01-17	49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5		15-18	Win	100	23 h 5 m	Show
The Cardinals' offense is missing superstar running back David Johnson and the left side of their offensive line with Alex Boone and Mike Iupati out. Carson Palmer is past his prime and his receivers are banged-up. The 49ers' defense is improved from last year and better than it showed last week against the Rams. San Francisco's offense is a work in progress. The 49ers have scored fewer than 10 points per game during two of their three games. The 49ers' best offensive player, running back Carlos Hyde, isn't 100 percent. The Cardinals' defense gets back linebacker Deone Bucannon for the first time this season.
10-01-17	Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys		35-30	Win	100	29 h 34 m	Show
Did you know the Rams are leading the NFL in scoring? It's true. After averaging a league-low 14 points last season, the Rams are putting up 35.7 points per game. The key is monster improvement from second-year quarterback Jared Goff. He was hindered by Jeff Fisher's neanderthal coaching last year. New coach, QB guru Sean McVay, has helped raise Goff's passer rating from 63.6 to 118.2. That's the largest increase ever for a QB going into his second season. Todd Gurley is a major factor now that defenses no longer can stack the line against him. The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and are coming off a Monday night road win against the Cardinals. This is a short week for the Cowboys and a flat spot for them. Dallas hosts the Packers next week in a marquee matchup.
10-01-17	Bengals -3 v. Browns	Top	31-7	Win	100	96 h 56 m	Show
The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games. The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points. Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has. I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again.
10-01-17	Saints -150 v. Dolphins		20-0	Win	100	93 h 3 m	Show
The Dolphins are not at the stage the Saints are. The Saints have a dangerous offense thanks to Drew Brees and their defense proved respectable against a struggling offense, Carolina, last week. The Dolphins aren't in sync. They haven't had time to get Jay Cutler up to speed because of Hurricane Irma. This marks Miami's third straight away trip. The Dolphins won on the West Coast against the winless Chargers then flew coast-to-coast where they were manhandled and embarrassed by the Jets, the worst team in football. Now they have to fly overseas to London. The lack of practice and coehision really showed last week with the Dolphins as they were shut out by the Jets until the final play and outgained by more than 111 yards. Brees gets Willie Snead back from suspension and can easily light up a weak Miami secondary. The Saints have covered in 10 of their last 12 away contests.
09-28-17	Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5	Top	14-35	Loss	-110	69 h 49 m	Show
The Bears have the worst wide receivers in the NFL. The Packers are going to be forced to scale their passing attack way down due to injuries to their top five offensive tackles. The result should be an Under, which would be the fifth time in the last six meetings played in Green Bay between these two teams that Under would cash. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times, most in the NFL, due mainly to the absence of his starting offensive tackles, David Bakhitari and Bryan Bulaga. They've yet to be on the field at the same time. Both of their fill-ins are hurt, too. In desperation, the Packers just signed Ulrick John from Arizona's practice squad. He could actually start. This being a Thursday game is a terrible break for the Packers. Not only does the short week hurt the Packers getting their deep back-up offensive tackles up to speed, but they may not have Randall Cobb either. He's their top slot receiver. This cluster injury problem at offensive tackle and the short practice time means the Packers are going to be forced to run more than usual. This is not a strength. Green Bay ranks 29th in rushing. The Packers have yet to find a capable backup behind starting running back Ty Montgomery. They let James Starks go during the offseason, drafting three rookie running backs, none of which have distinguished themselves yet. Both teams are well-coached defensively. The Packers rank in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed. The Bears have held the high-scoring Falcons to 23 points and Steelers to 17. Their defense has surendered six touchdowns versus three good offenses - Falcons, Buccaneers and Steelers. The Bears, though, average only 15.7 points a game. Not only is their receiver group the worst in the NFL, but Mike Glennon is a total stiff at quarterback. Straight out of the Brady Quinn check-down school, Glennon completed one pass to a wide receiver against the Steelers this past Sunday. That was a nine-yard pass on a third-and-16 in the fourth quarter. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen are going to get a ton of carries, which will run the clock and keep Rodgers and Co. off the field.
09-24-17	Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 45.5		24-10	Loss	-110	122 h 58 m	Show
The Chiefs are explosive with Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill. Alex Smith is much more aggressive with his downfield passing this year. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. It is plain wrong thinking to believe the Chiefs are a conservative team nowadays. The Chiefs are going to get their share of points against a Chargers defense that is likely to still be without stud cornerback Jason Verrett. The Chargers are almost always good for their share of points with Philip Rivers under center. Rivers has his full complement of receiving targets plus a top-10 running back in Melvin Gordon. Rivers' job is made easier with star safety Eric Berry out for the Chiefs. That's a huge plus for Chargers tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry.
09-24-17	Bengals +8 v. Packers		24-27	Win	100	32 h 52 m	Show
Aside from Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' two most important players are defensive lineman Mike Daniels and offensive left tackle David Bakhtiari. Neither is expected to play against the Bengals. The Packers may have offensive right tackle Byran Bulaga and wide receiver Jordy Nelson - stressing the maybe - but the Packers are going to be without star pass rusher Nick Perry, probably linebacker Jake Ryan and wide receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers also have several injuries in their secondary. So Green Bay is far from 100 percent. The Bengals are a desperate 0-2 team. The Bengals have been a major disappointment offensively, but their defense is solid. Cincinnati had made the playoffs five straight seasons until last year. Only one of their last six defeats have been by more than five points. Cincinnati has too much skill position talent for its offense to stay this bad. The Bengals' work-in-progress offensive line catches a huge break with Daniels not likely to play. A change in offensive coordinators from Ken Zampese to Bill Lazor could spur immediate improvement while boosting sagging team morale. A.J. Green is the best receiver on the field. Lazor will make sure Green and promising rookie running back Joe Mixon are big parts of the offense. The Bengals have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played in the Thursday game last week. The Bengals have been a jinx team to Mike McCarthy and Rodgers as they've never beaten them.
09-24-17	Seahawks +3 v. Titans		27-33	Loss	-110	133 h 57 m	Show
The Seahawks are struggling to put up touchdowns through two games. The Titans very well could be the best team in the AFC South Division. They have a lot of young talent. But the Titans lack the pedigree and experience to beat an elite team. I see the Seahawks, with their defense dominant as ever, hanging around to get the victory. The Seahawks know how to win. Tennessee isn't at that stage yet. The Seahawks should have had two additional touchdowns against the 49ers last week, but C.J. Prossie and Tanner McEvoy each couldn't hold on to touchdown passes that were on the money. Russell Wilson is better than ever and the Seahawks may have found their most effective running back with Chris Carson rushing for 93 yards on 20 carries against the 49ers. Thomas Rawls should also be more effective in his second game since returning from a high ankle sprain. The Titans could be without their lead running back, DeMarco Murray, and good-looking rookie wide receiver, Corey Davis. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries.
09-24-17	Browns v. Colts +1		28-31	Win	100	130 h 54 m	Show
The Colts are home, have the better skill position players and I like their quarterback better. The Browns have lost their last 14 road games. Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer has been sacked 10 times and picked off four times in six quarters. He'll be without his top receiver, injured Corey Coleman. The Colts acquired second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett from the Patriots on Sept. 2. Brissett had only seven practices before starting this past Sunday against the Cardinals. He nearly led the Colts to an upset win against the Cardinals with Indy losing in overtime. Brissett has excellent mobility and a big arm. He helped lead the Patriots to an easy win against the Texans, a much stronger defensive team than the Browns, last season. The Colts have more skill position weapons for Brissett than the Browns do for Kizer, including elite wideout T.Y. Hilton. The Browns will be without Myles Garrett and possibly star linebacker Jamie Collins, who is in the league's concussiohn protocol.
09-24-17	Giants +6.5 v. Eagles		24-27	Win	100	28 h 26 m	Show
It's a mistake to underestimate the Giants even though they are 0-2 and coming off a dreadful Monday night home loss to the Eagles. Clearly, the Giants have problems offensively. Eli Manning is past his prime and is behind a terrible offensive line without a good running back. But the Giants have an upper tier defense. The Giants didn't win 11 games by fluke last season. They are in desperation mode at 0-2 and are a nice value play here as previous to Monday night they were in the plus 3 1/2 range in early-look ahead lines. Odell Beckham Jr. is the healthiest he's been all season. The Giants' pass-first offense is going against a weak Eagles secondary made weaker by an injury to their best cornerback, Ronald Darby. Beckham should have a big game against Eagles cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas. This is a perfect example of an inflated line due to an overreaction of the Monday night game.
09-24-17	Ravens v. Jaguars +4	Top	7-44	Win	100	127 h 44 m	Show
Forget perception. These two teams aren't that far apart. Baltimore hasn't made the playoffs the past two seasons. The Ravens have a below average offense made worse by several key injuries. The Jaguars are better coached now and an ascending team with plenty of defensive talent. There's also another major factor here: This game is at Wembley Stadium in London. Jacksonville is trying to establish London as a second home base. The Jaguars have played the last five years in London, winning the past two times. Baltimore has never played an overseas game. Anyone who has flown overseas can tell you how much a physical toll the time difference makes. There's also a mental focus. The Ravens are riding high at 2-0 and have arch-rival Pittsburgh on deck next week. This is a flat spot for them. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a foul mood after laying an egg at home against the Titans this past Sunday. The Jaguars know they can play well against this opponent having defeated the Ravens on the road in 2015. They nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last season losing 19-17 on a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left. Blake Bortles is more game manager these days with heavy duty rookie Leonard Fournette to keep defenses honest. Joe Flacco isn't 100 percent after missing August recovering from a herniated disc in his back. He's alerady lost his most reliable running back, Danny Woodhead, and top offensive lineman, Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda, to injuries.
09-21-17	Rams v. 49ers OVER 39.5	Top	41-39	Win	100	29 h 12 m	Show
Guru quarterback coach Sean McVay is making an early difference as head coach of the Rams. The Rams joke offense of the Jeff Fisher era is gone. LA is much improved offensively ranking fourth in points and 10th in yards. Jared Goff has a 103.2 pass rating while averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. Last year's figures were a 63.6 QB rating and 5.3 yards per attempt. Goff's huge improvement has made Todd Gurley relavent again. Gurley is back to being the elite runner he was two years ago during his rookie season. The 49ers were a disaster both offensively and defensively last year. Their defense has improved, but it's still bad made worse by injuries to key defenders safety Eric Reid and linebacker Reuben Foster. San Francisco has looked dreadful offensively. Two major reasons for this is an adjustment period learning new coach Kyle Shanahan's offense and the schedule. The 49ers opened up against Carolina and Seattle. Now they drop down to the Rams defense. The 49ers aren't going to remind anyone of the Patriots, but their skill position level isn't as bad as it has showed so far. The 49ers offense should be better, especially here at home having had a couple of games to work the kinks out and dropping down in class. Brian Hoyer has had success before operating Shanhan's offense and he has a respectable runner in Carlos Hyde and wide receiver in Pierre Garcon.
09-18-17	Lions v. Giants OVER 42	Top	24-10	Loss	-110	17 h 7 m	Show
The Giants offense looked terrible in their opening week 19-3 loss to the Cowboys. But this total is too low even if Odell Beckham Jr. misses a second straight game. It's an overreaction to how bad the Giants offense played against Dallas. Before the rules heavily favoring offense, particularly passing, were instituted this total would be the equivalent of an over/under in the 30's. It's too low. Both the Lions and Giants are passing teams. The Lions defense is well below average. Detroit's defense set a modern-day record for highest completion percentage allowed last year along with finishing last in in opponent's average drive time. Eli Manning is at his best in a short passing offense, which is made to take advantage of Detroit's type of defense. The Giants' defense is strong, but may be without top cornerback Janoris Jenkins and leading tackler linebacker B.J. Goodson. The LIons should put up their share of points regardless if those two Giants play. Matthew Stafford has full command of Jim Bob Cooter's offense. The Lions went with a no-huddle on nearly half their plays last Sunday, the highest percentage of any team in Week 1. So the pace figures to be fast, which is a huge plus for the Over.
09-17-17	Packers v. Falcons -2.5	Top	23-34	Win	100	128 h 14 m	Show
Maybe the Packers will finish as the best team in the NFC, but right now the Packers defense isn't ready for Atlanta. Green Bay's defense showed improvement in Week 1. That was at home, though, against Seattle, which has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Now the Packers go on turf to take on the Falcons playing their first regular-season game in their new $1.5 billion dollar stadium. The last time these two teams got together was in the NFC championship game, also in Atlanta. The final was Atlanta 44, Green Bay 21. The score wasn't even that close. The Falcons bolted to a 31-0 lead and coasted. The Falcons also beat the Packers during the regular season in Atlanta last year. Matt Ryan threw for a combined 680 yards in those two contests versus the Packers, while accounting for eight touchdowns. Ryan has his main weapons back. The Packers' young and inexperienced secondary isn't nearly ready for this kind of early road test. Look for Julio Jones to have a monster game. Defensive guru Dan Quinn has Atlanta's defense on the upswing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be able to keep up with Ryan. The Packers' offensive line isn't as good as it was last season. They are going to have a great degree of difficult playing in this setting especially if star right tackle Bryan Bulaga remains out with an ankle injury.
09-17-17	49ers v. Seahawks -13.5		9-12	Loss	-110	123 h 8 m	Show
The Seahawks have dominated the 49ers at home winning the past six times. They've beaten San Francisco by 19 and 16 points, respectively, the past two years. Seattle has the top defense in the NFL. All of the Seahawks' defensive studs are back and run-stuffer Sheldon Richardson has been added. The 49ers' work-in-progress offense isn't ready for this caliber of defense, especially in the toughest outdoor road venue. San Francisco could only manage three points and 217 yards of offense at home against Carolina this past Sunday. Russell Wilson has the best set of receivers he's ever had. Wilson is primed for a huge year. The 49ers defense took a huge loss when promising rookie linebacker Reuben Foster suffered a high ankle sprain this past Sunday. The Seahawks are in a foul mood after losing to the Packers opening week. They'll take their frustrations out on the hapless 49ers here.
09-17-17	Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 45.5		19-17	Loss	-110	24 h 18 m	Show
he Dolphins are much more dangerous offensively with gunslinger Jay Cutler replacing game-manager Ryan Tannehill at quarterback especially with Adam Gase, who coached Cutler to his best season in Chicago, as head coach. Cutler has an elite running back in Jay Ajayi and solid receivers with Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Julius Thomas. The Dolphins catch a break, too, in that the Chargers will be without their top cornerback, injured Jason Verrett. Ajayi should be in line for a big game, too, as the Chargers' new 3-4 defense was torched for 140 yards on the ground by the Broncos' mediocre rush attack last week. The teams met last season in Southern California and the Dolphins won, 31-24. Philip Rivers didn't have his best wide receiver, Keenan Allen, for that game. Allen is healthy now. Both teams are better offensively now than they were then, but the total is much lower than the 55 points they combined for last year.
09-17-17	Titans -125 v. Jaguars		37-16	Win	100	117 h 35 m	Show
Tennessee is the superior team with a much better quarterback in a matchup of Marcus Mariota versus Blake Bortles. The line is low because the Titans lost to the Raiders at home while the Jaguars dominated the Texans opening week. The well-coached Titans defensive brain trust, headed by Dick LeBeau, is going to stack the run against the Jaguars knowing Jacksonville's simple game plan is pound it on the ground with Leonard Fournette and have Bortles be a game manager instead of a gunslinger. The Titans have a much more balanced offense with two good runners and underrated receivers. Bortles is a turnover machine and doesn't have his No. 1 wide receiver as Allen Robinson was lost for the season with a knee injury. Only twice in the last three years have the Jaguars managed to string together consecutive victories.

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