When I see a total in this range on a Texans game, I have to think Under. Houston has the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points, total yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans' poor offensive numbers aren't completely attributable to rookie QB Davis Mills either. They've averaged 15 points and 221 total yards during their last three games since Tyrod Taylor came back. 

The Colts lead the league in takeaways with 26. The Colts have held five of their last nine opponents to 18 or fewer points. They beat the Texans, 31-3, in the first meeting. Indy is stepping way down in class after surrendering 38 points to the Buccaneers last Sunday. 

Houston is underrated defensively. The Texans rank 15th in pass defense and are in the top 10 in takeaways. They've held their last three foes to an average of 17 points. Safety Justin Reid, perhaps Houston's top defensive player, returns from suspension. 

The Under has cashed the last five times the teams have met in Houston. 

The Lions are a dead nuts Under team with their pop gun attack. Detroit hasn't reached 20 points since opening week. During their last 10 games, the Lions are averaging 14.1 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the Lions' last nine games.

D'Andre Swift is the Lions' lone explosive weapon - and he's not likely to play because of a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Thanksgiving game.

Minnesota's defense has been a huge disappointment. Multiple injuries have played a role in this. However, Mike Zimmer is a top-notch defensive mind and his team shouldn't have problems holding the Lions' down, especially considering the mindset of Lions coach Dan Campbell, who wants his team to play low-scoring games.

The Vikings will be without their most dynamic player, Dalvin Cook. He's sidelined with a shoulder injury. That ensures a heavy workload for plodding Alexander Mattison, a North/South type runner good for the Under.

In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line.

Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games.

The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington.

The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. 

So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. 

Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. 

The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. 

Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. 

The Rams have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Packers eliminated them in the playoffs, 32-18, last January.

If you recall the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp for that game and Aaron Donald was just a shell of himself suffering from broken ribs. Oh yeah, the Rams QB back then was Jared Goff.

This time around Kupp and Donald are at full strength. The Rams' QB situation is immeasurably improved with Matthew Stafford instead of Goff. The Rams have had two weeks, too, to rest and prepare. This should help newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr. get up to speed in Sean McVay's offense.

The Packers are minus two of their three best defensive players with cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za'Darius Smith out. Emerging pass rusher Rashan Gary also isn't likely to play. The Vikings exposed the overachieving Packers defense scoring 34 points on them last week. LA has permitted only 15 sacks. I see Stafford having ample time to pick apart Green Bay's secondary.

Donald is going to cause havoc to the Packers' offensive line, which is missing their two best linemen with David Bakhitari and Elgton Jenkins out. The Packers also are without their starting center, Josh Myers. Right now the Packers' left tackle is third-stringer Yosh Nijman.

Special teams continue to plague the Packers, too. Mason Crosby could be at the end of the line having missed eight of his last 14 field goal attempts.

Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points.

The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. 

Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009.

Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. 

Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span. 

The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions.

The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up.

Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree.

Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching.

The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation.

Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league.

The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season.

New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points.

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self.

New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game.

Now that Ben Roethlisberger has cleared COVID-19 protocols, I feel confident playing this game Over the total.

The Chargers have an above average offense and an elite QB in Justin Herbert. The Chargers catch a major break in that Pittsburgh is going to be without it's best pass rusher, best safety and top cornerback as T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden have all been ruled out.

The Steelers aren't the same minus the dominant Watt, perhaps the best pass rusher in the NFL, and the dynamic ballhawk Fitzpatrick. The Steelers are thin at linebacker, too, after trading Melvin Ingram to the Chiefs earlier this month.

The Chargers are averaging 29.7 points in their past four home games. The weather will be perfect here.

I expect the Steelers to contribute their fair share of points. LA ranks last in run defense. Najee Harris is the sixth-leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh's young offensive line has been showing improvement.

If the Chargers stack the line to key on Harris, Rothelisberger is savvy enough to hurt LA with play-action. It's a plus for Pittsburgh that big-play wideout Chase Claypool is expected to play.

It's not who you play in the NFL it's when you play them. That applies in this case. The Texans have lost eight in a row. Bill O'Brien really buried this franchise before departing the Houston scene. He should never be allowed to set foot on Texas soil again. The Texans are at expansion level.

But the Texans will prove tough here.

After winning six in a row - the last five against playoff teams - the Titans are in a monster letdown spot. They have the Patriots on deck.

Tennessee no longer has an explosive offense. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out. It's not a coincidence the Titans have had their two worst rushing games of the season since losing Henry to a broken right foot.

Houston has the running advantage with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Tyrod Taylor, one of the better running QB's in the league, compared to the Titans' Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman.

The Texans' offensive line is terrible. But injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of Tennessee's offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 29 times. That's tied with rookie Justin Fields for being the most sacked QB in the NFL.

Taylor was extremely rusty against the Dolphins in his first start after being out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. Houston had its bye last week. Expect Taylor, an 11-year veteran with a history of not turning the ball over, to be much sharper. The Texans are plus eight in point differential during the 10 quarters Taylor has played.

This is a game Houston coach David Culley has been pointing to. He's a native of Tennessee and has an extensive college coaching record inside the state of Tennessee.

The Texans come in rested and motivated. The Titans lack the firepower to blow an opponent out now especially when in a flat spot.

The Texans have the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points and yards per game. They are averaging a mind-boggling 4.2 points in their last four road games.

Tyrod Taylor upgrades Houston's offense. But only slightly. He's far better than overmatched rookie Davis Mills, but he's still Tyrod Taylor - a conservative journeyman better at running the ball than completing downfield passes.

The Titans have excellent season numbers. However, those numbers are out of context now with Derrick Henry and Julio Jones both out. The Titans have run the ball 55 times in their last two games minus Henry. They've gained 135 yards, an average of 67.5 yards per game. That's their lowest two-game rushing total of the season.

No Jones means the Texans can fully concentrate their pass defense on A.J. Brown, who is the Titans' only above average wideout.

Both teams have protection problems. The Titans have given up 29 sacks, the Texans 26 sacks. Tennessee's defense is much improved with defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and linebacker Harold Landry playing at star levels.

Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7.

The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries.

Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years.

The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week.

The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense.

Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage.

This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster.

The Falcons have much to prove after scoring just three points in a 40-point loss to the Cowboys last Sunday. Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 21.4 in that game, lowest of his career.

It's probably a given the Falcons are going to come out motivated for this Thursday night home game. It's far from a given, though, that they score far more points than last week.

New England has an elite defense. Dallas doesn't. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.7. That number shrinks to 12.5 if you go by the last four games.

Atlanta's problems aren't fully on Ryan. Minus traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who will be missing his fourth straight game to deal with mental health issues, the Falcons are down to just two explosive players, Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts. Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury. So he may be out, too.

Given Mike Davis' ineffectiveness this season, the Falcons' primary running back could be journeyman Wayne Gallman. That leaves Pitts as a lone force and Bill Belichick is a master at taking away his opponent's most potent weapon. The Falcons won't even have the luxury of playing a second good pass-catching tight end because Hayden Hurst is out with an ankle injury.

This isn't the decent Falcons' attack spearheaded by Ryan we're used to seeing. Way too many missing parts. Ryan is going to have to be conservative because of that. The Patriots have 14 interceptions. That's tied for the second-most in the league.

The Patriots are far from explosive themselves. Take away their two victories against the Jets and last week's blowout of the Browns and the Patriots are averaging 21.5 points in their seven other games.

New England is a run-oriented, ground-and-pound team. Rookie QB Mac Jones has proven accurate, but he's not a big downfield thrower and his wide receiving corps is below average.

It's tough for a road team to win when playing on a short week especially facing a non-conference opponent. The last time these teams met was 2017. The short week limits the Patriots' game-planning and chance to be creative on offense. They'll do what they do best - run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. That's a good formula for the Under.

The Bears hosted the 49ers last week. The total was less than 41. There were 55 points scored. 

The Rams are a top-five offense averaging more than 30 points and 400 total yards. Matthew Stafford is putting up MVP numbers and Cooper Kupp has been the best wide receiver in the NFL. Tennessee has a below average defense. 

Tyrod Taylor is back under center. That makes a huge difference for Houston. Taylor is a professional. Rookie Davis Mills was a rank amateur in way above his head as a starting NFL quarterback.

Taylor played six quarters before he was injured. The Texans outscored their two opponents, 51-35, during that span. 

No Taylor isn't some savior. He's a veteran journeyman. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But their 1-7 record is the same as Miami's. 

The Dolphins give up even more yards than the Texans. Miami ranks 31st in defensive total yards and 29th in scoring defense permitting 29.1 points. 
The Dolphins on offense are just as bad ranking in the bottom-four in yards gained, points, rushing yards and turnovers. 

Houston has a bye next week. So the Texans should be putting forth a strong effort. 

Miami isn't nearly the playoff team it was last season. So you have to wonder about the Dolphins' morale. 

Dallas' defense is much improved. But it's far from an elite unit. Jerry Jeudy is back from an ankle injury. He's Denver's most consistent wide receiving threat. His presence opens the field for their other receivers, including the highly-talented Courtland Sutton.

Teddy Bridgewater has completed better than 70 percent of his throws. Expect Bridgewater to be passing far more than usual as he'll need to keep up with Dak Prescott and an explosive Cowboys offense.

The Broncos' defense looked good at the start of the season. However, they were playing weak offenses and that was before multiple injuries struck. Denver is without its two best inside linebackers, Josey Jewell and A.J. Johnson. That opens up the running game for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

Denver's pass rush is without Bradley Chubb and now the traded Von Miller. So Prescott should have time to pick his spots. The Cowboys' deep wide receiving corps is made even deeper with the expected return of Michael Gallup, who is talented enough to be a starter on some teams. The Broncos suffered another key defensive injury, losing Bryce Callahan. He was one of the best slot coverage defensive backs.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame collected Mike White's jersey from last Sunday's stunning Jets' 34-31 win against the Bengals. Heady stuff. Kudos to the Jets, who caught the Bengals traveling in a division sandwich spot after beating the Ravens and hosting the Browns this week.

The Jets are in the bad spot this week in their own letdown situation and playing a Thursday road game against a frustrated and motivated opponent that is at least two levels better than them.

So I'm not afraid to lay this number with Indy. It's the Colts' first prime time home game in four years.

The Colts are much the superior team and are in near must-win mode after blowing a two-touchdown lead last week in their AFC South Division showdown loss to the Titans.

White isn't throwing for more than 400 yards and three TD's like he did against Cincinnati. White doesn't possess that kind of skill level. Defenses have film on him now, too, and Indy is well-coached defensively.

The stunning victory against the Bengals obscures just how wretched the Jets really are. New York averages 13 fewer points per game than its opponents and 84 fewer yards. The Jets have the worst ground attack in the league and the highest percentage of passes intercepted.

Carson Wentz has thrown multiple TD's in six straight games. Jonathan Taylor has reinforced his reputation as a stud running back. The Colts' offensive line has gotten healthy.

Expect a Colts blowout.

A lot has to go right defensively and on special teams for a total of less than 40 to go Under in today's NFL with so many rules skewed to offense. 

The Cardinals rank fourth in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.1. That's legitimate with Kyler Murray having an MVP-type season. 

Arizona ranks first in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game at 16.3. That's not legitimate. Yes, the Cardinals' defense is much improved. But it's not the dominating unit that the statistics show.

Arizona has permitted just 29 points in its last three games. Those matchups, though, were against the 49ers, Browns and Texans. The Cardinals faced two rookie quarterbacks during this span - Trey Lance in his starting debut and overmatched Davis Mills - along with a banged-up Baker Mayfield, who probably shouldn't have played against the Cardinals in what was one of his worst performances ever. Mayfield couldn't hit open receivers all game against Arizona. 

The Packers won't have Davonte Adams and Allen Lazard. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling has to miss a fifth straight game due to a hamstring injury, Green Bay will be without its three top wideouts. 

Normally this would create a huge problem. That problem isn't the mess the marketplace believes it is in driving the line up to a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers still has weapons. Green Bay has outstanding wide receiver depth. Rodgers has been great since Week 2 with 17 all purpose touchdowns and just one interception during his last six games. 

By the way, the Packers are 6-0 since 2019 in games Adams has missed. 

The Cardinals will get Chandler Jones back, but J.J. Watt won't play. I have complete confidence that Rodgers will put up his share of points helping this total go Over.

Murray certainly is in line for another big game. Arizona has scored 30 or more points in every game except one. The Packers won't have their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, nor their best pass rusher, Za'Darius Smith. They may not have their other starting cornerback, Kevin King, nor their third-best pass rusher, Preston Smith. Both missed last Sunday's game and are questionable here not helped by the short week. 

The Packers holding Washington to 10 points last Sunday is highly misleading. Washton marched up and down the field on Green Bay picking up 430 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play. Taylor Heinicke just made too many goal line mistakes to take advantage. The Packers have allowed the second-most quarterback rushing yards. That bodes well for double-threat Murray. 

This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. 

I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison. 

There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play. 

Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8. 

The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects. 

Seattle swept San Francisco last season and the Seahawks should win this game because of Russell Wilson. He has the arms, legs and intelligence to take advantage of the 49ers' cluster injury situation in their secondary. 

I'm expecting rookie QB Davis Mills to get the start for the Texans. That's certainly not a plus for Houston as Mills isn't nearly ready to start a regular season NFL game. 

There were a combined 32 and 34 points scored in the two meetings last season between these teams. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup this time, too.

I don't see the Cowboys being able to stay within double digits of the Buccaneers.  Unlike last season, when it took them half the season for them to gel under new QB Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are fully in sync. The Super Bowl champs have all of their starters back and their deep set of receivers should carve up a Dallas defense that was historically bad last season.  I don't expect the Cowboys to surrender 29.6 points a game and permit 34 TD passes like in 2020. But I certainly don't expect them to be one of the better defensive units either as they make the change to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.  This will be Dak Prescott's first game since suffering a horrific broken ankle last year. He'll be behind a thin offensive line minus several players due to injuries and COVID. The Buccaneers are top-notch against the run so I'm not expecting a big game either from Ezekiel Elliott.  Super Bowl champions opening at home are a dominant 18-2 SU, 14-4-2 ATS. 

The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under. 

I'm expecting a shootout. These team's offenses trump their defenses. 

 Tampa Bay produced 38 points on the Packers in their Week 6 matchup - and its offense has gotten better and more diversified since then. Tom Brady has the savvy and weapons to take advantage of the Packers' inexperienced linebackers and lack of depth in the secondary. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette not only provide Brady with reliable short-yardage running backs, but they set him up well for play-action. Green Bay doesn't have enough quality defensive backs to handle Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. The Packers also have extremely weak punt coverage so the Buccaneers should be operating in good field position. Not that the Buccaneers are going to be receiving many punts because I also see the Packers producing far more points than the 10 they managed in their 38-10 Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay. Green Bay led the NFL in scoring. That Week 6 game was the only time their offense was held in check.  Aaron Rodgers is as great mentally as he is physically. The Packers have made many adjustments since that loss. Their offense is in peak form. The Buccaneers love to blitz. That's the signature of their aggressive defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Rodgers is a master at reading the blitz. It's actually good for Rodgers that he's played the Bucs this season. He'll know what to expect. Green Bay's offensive line is playing better since that game even without injured star left tackle David Bakhitari.  Blitzing isn't going to hide the Buccaneers' warts in their secondary that Rodgers will expose. The Packers took apart the Rams' No. 1 defense last week. Green Bay's offense is too in sync to be slowed down at this late stage especially given the Hall of Fame form Rodgers is in now.   
  

If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. 

I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. 

Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup.

The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week. 

The Colts defense isn't the elite unit it was earlier this season when they opened against five out of six mediocre-to-bad offenses. Their two major defensive statistics have shrunk from top-three to No. 8 in total yards and 12th in scoring defense. That's what can happen when during the last six games you've faced Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger. 

Houston's season was finished before Halloween. Now the nightmarish 2020 year concludes for the Texans against Tennessee, one of only three teams in the NFL to average 30 points. 

I'm eagerly anticipating a no-pressure, let-it-all hang out shootout between two bad defensive teams in this Las Vegas-Denver meaningless finale.

Sean McVay may have picked up a few critics since the Rams' Super Bowl loss to the Patriots two seasons ago. I'm not one of them. The Rams have a far better defense than the Cardinals and McVay had an entire week to prepare fill-in QB John Wolford and devise a suitable game plan. 

Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points. 

I get why the Browns are such heavy favorites. I just don't trust them even though the Steelers will be sitting a number of starters, including Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, who probably will be named Defensive Player of the Year. 

Sure on paper this game shapes up to be high-scoring. The Titans lead the NFL averaging 31.1 points per game. The Packers are right next to them averaging 31 points. 

Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week.  The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown.  It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19.  I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers.  The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson.  Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception.  This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league?