Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. 
After losing to a bad 49ers team last year on the road in their opener, the Vikings should be fully prepared this time around. They know they can't take a loss with the Packers and Panthers up next in Weeks 2 and 3. The Vikings rebounded from that defeat to the 49ers to cover their last seven road games. Peterson and an emerging defense are an excellent road formula. 
The Titans have lost 14 of their 16 home games during the last two seasons. Marcus Mariota is a promising second-year quarterback, but the Titans are in a huge rebuilding stage. They have a lot of youth, new starters and lack receiving weapons for Mariota. Their talent level can't compare to the Vikings. 

I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. 
Both teams are slow-motion, grind-out types where points mean something. So taking more than a field goal is big. Last year, all but five of the Bears' games were decided by five points or less. 
The Bears are well coached and fundamentally sound. John Fox is 30-12 ATS on the road in his NFL coaching career and knows the Texans and Osweiler from when he coached the Broncos. The Bears covered six of their last seven away games last season. 
I'm expecting a strong defensive game plan from Fox and his ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with so much time to prepare. I'll take their experience, savvy and tricks against Osweiler and a vanilla Houston offense that had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries during preseason and isn't likely to be in sync here.
The Bears offense is ready to take off and become a lot more vertical with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Jay Cutler is far more effective with a healthy Jeffery. 

I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver.
Certainly the Broncos are worthy of respect despite their less-than-inspiring quarterback situation. But Carolina is the more complete team extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton just had his worst game of the season in the Super Bowl.
Newton, of course, is the real deal and gives the Panthers a monster quarterback edge. He has his top receiver weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, back now which wasn't the case in the Super Bowl. 
Denver's defense still is top-notch, but several important players did leave. Carolina lost its great cornerback, Josh Norman. But the Panthers rate far better than the Broncos with a top-three quarterback compared to a bottom-three quarterback. 
The right team is favored here. 

Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Carolina is a rising power that is ready to make the next leap having made the playoffs a third straight season. This is the Panthers' best team as evidenced by 16-1 record and eight players being named to either the first or second team Pro Bowl squad. 
Cam Newton is the likely MVP accounting for 45 touchdowns and more than 4,400 yards throwing and running. Newton is more trustworthy than Carson Palmer, who also has enjoyed a brilliant campaign but hasn't played well in Arizona's past two games. The Cardinals were buried at home by the Seahawks and were lucky rather than good versus the Packers this past Saturday night winning in overtime. Palmer had not won a playoff game in his 13 seasons until that win against Green Bay. He was fortunate not to have thrown more than two interceptions as Sam Shields dropped several poorly thrown passes by Palmer. 
Led by cornerback Josh Norman and linebacker Luke Kuechly - perhaps the two best at their respective positions - the Panthers led the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Cardinals' luck at avoiding injury stopped late in the season. They are minus safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. 
The Cardinals rarely can generate quarterback heat unless they blitz. Newton has the mobility and strength to avoid blitzes. Palmer has the bigger name wide receiving targets. Larry Fitzgerald has enjoyed a monster comeback season regaining his status as an elite receiver. Carolina, though, has the far superior tight end in Greg Olsen and the more experienced, proven running back in now healthy Jonathan Stewart, who easily outplayed Marshawn Lynch last week in returning from a foot injury. 
The Panthers have won 12 consecutive home games, including defeating the Cardinals in the playoffs last season, 27-16. Arizona was down to third-string Ryan Lindley in that matchup. The Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season. Only one of those victories, however, was against an opponent that made the playoffs. 
Palmer isn't playing well and the Cardinals' ground attack has produced an average of just 2.1 yards per carry during their last two games. The Cardinals can be overwhelmed at the point of attack especially when their ground attack isn't clicking. 
Arizona also has a weak kicking game. Drew Butler is among the worst punters in the NFL and Chandler Catanzaro missed five extra points during the season. 

These are the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring teams in the NFL. The offenses are healthy, but the defenses aren't. 
Carson Palmer and Cam Newton each had career-best regular seasons. Palmer has a healthy trio of wide receivers that rank among the best in football as a unit. He's going against a Panthers secondary down two of their three best cornerbacks. They also aren't likely to have pass rusher Jared Allen. Arizona has scored 26 or more points in 70 percent of their games. 
Newton accounted for 45 touchdowns with his passing and running. He has a healthy Jonathan Stewart in the backfield and faces an Arizona defense that is weakened by the loss of safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. Newton has three receiving targets who averaged more than 14 yards per catch, including Greg Olsen, maybe the second-best tight end in football. Only once in their last 15 games have the Panthers failed to score at least 27 points.

Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. 
Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. 
Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests.
The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. 
Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury.
Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. 
Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace. 

Early money has been on the Seahawks. It's a mistake. The Panthers are the better team and are in a much better spot. 
So why is Carolina the better team besides obviously having a superior record? 
Both defenses are strong. I'd actually give a slight edge to Seattle's defense, although it is down from its previous two seasons. It remains very good, but not dominant. 
The Panthers led the league in scoring. This includes scoring 27 points on the Seahawks in their Week 6 victory - at Seattle. Cam Newton is a strong MVP candidate. Marshawn Lynch may be back for Seattle, but he wasn't having a good season. Carolina should also get its best running back, too, with Jonathan Stewart expected to start. 
Seattle's offense showed a lot of troubling characteristics against Minnesota's tough defense last week - such as misfired passes, just 5-of-14 on third down conversions, a time of possession deficit and only putting up 10 points. The Seahawks' lone touchdown was set up by a fluke play when the ball bounced right back to Russell Wilson on a bad snap. Wilson took advantage of the busted play to complete a 35-yard pass. 
Seattle would have lost to the Vikings if not for Blair Walsh's missed 27-yard field goal at the end. The success rate of a field goal from that short distance is 97 percent during the past 10 years. The Seahawks also were unbelievably lucky last season when Green Bay failed to field an on-side kick. 
So much of the Seahawks' mystique is built on luck. Carolina isn't getting enough credit for its 15-1 season, including a 4-0 record SU and ATS versus teams who made the playoffs this season. 
The Panthers are rested and home. They have a big chip on their shoulder feeling they haven't gotten the respect they deserve. They are a rising team that is ready for the next step having made the postseason each of the past two seasons. 
By contrast, Seattle is traveling for the third consecutive week. This is an early start time, too, for the West Coast Seahawks. The victory against the Vikings in frigid conditions takes a toll on the Seahawks. Seattle isn't as good as it has been the previous two seasons. The Seahawks' time is now up. 

First off this isn't Minneapolis in January. The game is in the Arizona desert Saturday night with a weather forecast of about 60 degrees, no rain and very little wind. 
Now the matchup. I see both teams scoring at least 24 points. If that occurs, this game does not go under. 
The Cardinals are the No. 2 scoring team in the NFL averaging 30.6 points per game. They rank No. 1 in total yards and No. 2 in passing yards. Only three times all season have the Cardinals been held to fewer than 22 points in a game. 
The Packers' defense isn't nearly dominant enough to stop Arizona's offense especially given that the Cardinals have had two weeks to game-plan being idle last week and Green Bay is likely to be missing its top cornerback, Sam Shields, a fifth consecutive week. These teams just met less than three weeks ago and Arizona scored 38 points.
Carson Palmer, surrounded by weapons and the aggressive play-calling and schemes of coach Bruce Arians, has never played better putting up MVP-caliber numbers. Larry Fitzgerald is the most physical slot receiver the Packers have faced all season. The Packers don't have a defensive back who can handle him. MIchael Floyd is another tall, physical wide receiver. Both Fitzpatrick and Floyd are 6-foot-3. The Packers struggle against these type of receivers. The Packers also have trouble defending athletes with speed. The Cardinals have this, too, among their weapons with John Brown and running back David Johnson, who also is dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield and in the return game. 
The key in making this over work is Green Bay putting up its share of points. I see that happening. The Packers' offense regained their rhythm and comfortable fast tempo against the Redskins. The parts always were in place. No quarterback is better than Aaron Rodgers. Even when the Packers' offense was struggling, Green Bay still put up 27 or more points in five of its last eight games. 
The Packers know the Cardinals well now from having just played them. It's a huge plus if left tackle David Bakhtiari returns. But even if he doesn't I'm fine with JC Tretter replacing him. Tretter filled-in well for Bakhitari last week after giving up a first-quarter safety. He's helped by the Packers knowing they must play the Cardinals using a quick rhythm style rather than rely on long-developing option routes, which didn't work in the first meeting. 
Rodgers and Co. are helped by the Cardinals missing the emotional leader of their secondary and maybe their best defensive player, safety Tyrann Mathieu, who is second on the team in tackles despite missing the past two games. This week the Cardinals also found out they will be without linebacker Alex Okafor, one of their best run defenders. 
Then there are intangibles. Arians is the most aggressive play-caller the NFL has seen during the past few years. Mike McCarthy isn't going to be conservative either knowing he hurt the Packers big time with his conservative decisions during last season's championship loss to Seattle on the road. 

It's a break for Green Bay to draw Washington in the first round of the playoffs. Although they are struggling offensively, the Packers defense has been solid. The Green Bay secondary will get a huge boost, too, if cornerback Sam Shields can play for the first time since suffering a concussion in Week 14.
The Redskins are a nice story winning the NFC East. Kirk Cousins actually had better numbers than Aaron Rodgers. But things need to be kept in perspective. The NFC East was a bad joke this season. The Redskins played only three winning teams - Panthers, Patriots and Jets. They were crushed in all three of those matchups.
Washington lacks Green Bay' long playoff experience and also does not have the speed and talented athletes to exploit the Packers. The Packers have made the postseason seven consecutive seasons and 18 of the last 23 seasons. They know how to step up and deal with pressure. The last time they reached the Super Bowl, which was 2010, they did it as a wild card. The Redskins haven't made the postseason since 2012 when Robert Griffin III was their quarterback. Cousins and the Redskins are totally unproven in the playoffs. Cousins has turnover traits that the Packers defense can exploit and the Washington organization has been dysfunctional ever since Daniel Snyder became its owner. They should not be trusted. Having know they were hosting a playoff game for two weeks only increases the pressure on the Redskins. 
The Packers played the far more difficult schedule playing seven games versus playoff opponents. The Packers won three of those games. Rodgers had a down season statistically, but he still potentially is the best player in the league. Green Bay's offense is much better than it has shown and it's going against a defense that is far easier than other playoff teams. 
Rodgers can take advantage of a Washington secondary that has lost three of its top six defensive backs for the season. In fact, the Redskins are so desperate for secondary help they signed 31-year-old cornerback Cary Williams this past Tuesday. 
It's not a stretch of the imagination at all to project Green Bay to get turned around and for Rodgers and McCarthy - proven winners - to step up and take advantage of a weak division champion that ranks among the bottom 10 in rushing and run defense - yet tries to play a power game - and lacks postseason experience. 

Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team.
The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season.
The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday.
The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. 

The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. 

Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate)
Over 5 1/2 Sacks
Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

On paper this seems like a tough game for the Jets going against their old coach Rex Ryan. But the truth of the matter is the Bills have regressed under Ryan and the players aren't responding to him. Ryan's strength is that of a motivator not a tactician. He is far from the popular figure he was in the Jets locker room. 
The Bills have lost four of their past six games. They are missing the playoffs for the 15th straight season, the longest drought in the NFL. 
The Jets are better than Buffalo on both sides of the ball and in must-win mode. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall are having huge seasons. New York is that rare team that ranks in the top eight both offensively and defensively. 
Buffalo has gone from leading the NFL in sacks a year ago to near the bottom this season courtesy of Ryan down 34 sacks from last season. Buffalo also is without its best running back, LeSean McCoy. 
The Jets underachieved under Ryan. They haven't under Todd Bowles, a superior coach to Ryan. 

New England has been winning with defense not offense. Only once have the Patriots scored more than 28 points during their last eight games. But defensively the Patriots rank in the top eight in fewest points, total yards and rushing yards. New England has held its last three opponents to an average of 14 points during regulation. 
Miami ranks 27th offensively in yards and points. Only once in their last nine games have the Dolphins scored more than 20 points. Ryan Tannehill has not taken a step forward remaining a mediocre quarterback talent with below average weapons. The Patriots shouldn't have problems controlling the Dolphins' pop gun attack. 
The key is if the Dolphins can control New England's offense. Miami is going to be tremendously aided by the Patriots' multiple offensive injuries and Bill Belichick likely to just play vanilla football to not tip his hand before the playoffs. Tom Brady is playing behind a makeshift offensive line. Every original offensive line starter is out or playing hurt. Brady hasn't been sacked this many times since his rookie season. Brady's left tackle, Sebastian Vollmer, won't play because of a knee injury.
The Patriots also are without their best wide receiver, Julian Edelman, and their two best running backs, Deion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount. The Patriots are so desperate for running back help they even brought a clearly-shot Steven Jackson back from retirement. Still, Belichick would like to run the ball a lot in this matchup to keep Brady from getting hurt. 
The Dolphins know their division rival well. Miami actually has won the past two times it has hosted New England. 

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Surprised to see Pittsburgh a double-digit favorite at Baltimore? Don't be. Oh, the Ravens will play hard. John Harbaugh will see to that. But the Ravens simply don't have nearly enough healthy talent to compete against elite level competition.
And the Steelers have become an elite team. They've won five of their last six scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. The Ravens are down 18 players for the season, including eight starters. Their defense is a shell of what it once was and they have no playmakers left on offense. It's why the Ravens are 2-5 at home, their worst home record in their 26-year history in Baltimore, and why they are on pace to have the fewest takeaways in team history with just 11 right now. 
Neither Jimmy Clausen nor Ryan Mallet nor Matt Schaub has the skill set and weapons to keep pace with Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton have combined to haul in 19 touchdown passes. DeAngelo Williams is going to be a 1,000-yard rusher replacing Le'Veon Bell. The battered Ravens might even be without cornerback Jimmy Smith, too. 

Neither team has a dominant defense that's for sure. But their offenses are worse. The Colts are averaging 12 points during their last three games. The Dolphins haven't scored more than 20 points in seven of their last eight games. 
Colts quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 40 and running on fumes so beaten up he's not even able to chew food. There's a possibility he can't finish the game, which would mean the insertion of third-string clipboard holder, Charlie "Checkdown" Whitehurst. 
The Dolphins are averaging 16.3 points in their last eight games. They could be minus two key members of their offensive line in center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert. Their replacements are second-year Ulrick John at left tackle and rookie Jamil Douglas at center. 
The Dolphins are on their second offensive coordinator and remain as mixed up as ever. Ryan Tannehill has become more game manager than downfield passer ranking 23rd in the passer rankings. 

On paper it seems hard to go against the Chiefs. They've won eight in a row outscoring their foes by an average of 17 1/2 points during their win streak. 
But my handicap to the Browns is a combination of the Chiefs' talent being overrated - they are more opportunistic than great in my view - and the Browns playing hard to try to save Mike Pettine's job. 
Credit to Andy Reid and the Chiefs for coming back from the dead after a 1-5 start. But take notice of who the Chiefs have recently played: The Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Chargers again and Ravens. 
The Chiefs are using backups at running back - a key position for them - and have a lackluster passing attack. They are winning by forcing turnovers - getting at least one during their past 10 games. 
Sure Cleveland could turn the ball over with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. But he's also capable of making big plays. The Browns, unlike other bottom feeders, have some talent in left tackle Joe Thomas, tight end Gary Barnidge, strong safety Donte Whitner and wide receiver/returner Travis Benjamin. Those players, along with Manizel, all happen to publicly come out and call for Pettine to keep his job. 
That's a nice loyalty gesture. You would think now they would back up their word by playing hard. The Chiefs' pass rush could be down if Tamba Hali can't play due to a broken thumb. Already out is Justin Houston. Those are the Chiefs' two best edge rushers. 

Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game.
Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. 
Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. 
Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. 
The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. 
The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game. 

The Packers are playing very good defense and their offense is back in sync with Eddie Lacy running well - like he usually does late in the season - and Mike McCarthy calling plays again. 
Green Bay is better than Oakland on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are improved, but still several tiers below Green Bay. Oakland has played better on the road going 4-3 compared to 2-4 at home. 
Derek Carr is showing signs of hitting the wall. Latavius Murray already has. Aaron Rodgers isn't having an MVP season, but he still has a 28-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Timing means a lot in the NFL. The Raiders are catching the Packers at a time when Green Bay has picked up its game. 
The difference between these two teams when playing in Oakland is far closer to a touchdown than a field goal. 

The Vikings are much improved under Mike Zimmer, but they are not an elite team and they are not built to cover margins of more than a field goal - especially against division foes - with a passing attack that ranks 31st. Only once has Teddy Bridgewater thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game. 
While Zimmer has done an excellent job, so has the coaching staff of the Bears. Since Week 4, Chicago has gone 5-5. The Bears lost two of those games in overtime and the other three by a combined eight points with none of those defeats occurring by more than three points. One of those losses was 23-20 to the Vikings in Week 8 on a Minnesota field goal at the gun.
Adrian Peterson can expect to see a stacked line keying on him. Not only is Bridgewater a bottom tier quarterback - far more game manager than playmaker - but the Bears rank second in pass defense.
The Bears' offensive line has shown improvement and their key wide receivers - Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royals - should be healthy enough to play. Jay Cutler is playing under control thanks to new offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Cutler is an easy target to rip, but I like him far more than Bridgewater. The Bears also now have two good running backs with Jeremy Langford keeping Matt Forte fresh. 
The Vikings will be without linebacker Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith again and possibly nose guard Linval Joseph. Their defense isn't as good without those key defenders. 

Not enough respect is being paid to Carolina's dominant defense with this high of a total. The Panthers rank in the top five in scoring defense, total yards, run defense and pass defense. They also are first in interceptions and third in sacks. 
This is the second-largets Carolina total of the season - and the matchup doesn't merit that. 
The Giants are one-dimensional ranking 29th in rushing yards. They don't have a a decent running back. Neither do the Panthers with Jonathan Stewart. Instead the Panthers are going to go with a three man committee of Mike Tolbert, Foswhitt Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne. 
If you discount giving up 52 points on the road to New Orleans on a fast track and in a shootout, the Giants have given up a respectable average of 21.5 points in regulation during their last six games. 
Cam Newton is having an MVP-caliber season. But he doesn't have his lead back and lacks outstanding wide receivers. The Giants' secondary is better with the return from injury of cornerback Prince Amukamara. 
This is a dangerous flat spot, too, for the Panthers. I see them playing a conservative, field-position type of game relying on their outstanding defense rather than take a lot of risks in this tough December road setting. 

Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. 
Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. 
Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. 
The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

This game has been moved to Sunday night. The Texans are not prime time ready. New England certainly is. It's rare to get the Patriots off a loss. It's near impossible to ever get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off consecutive losses. The last time that happened was 2002! 
Belichick and Brady are coming off rare bad performances for them. I want them going for me in this spot. Before getting upset by the Eagles this past Sunday, the Patriots were 8-0 straight-up and ATS when coming off a loss, with an average winning margin of 14 points.
The Texans haven't been able to put together a consistent ground attack since losing Arian Foster. New England, however, is far more banged-up. That's a big reason why this line is so low.
Still, no coach is better than Belichick at finding role players to fill in the niches and no quarterback is better than Brady in putting them in position to succeed. I fully expect Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, James White and Scott Chandler to play well replacing Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski. 
The Texans weren't able to take advantage of Buffalo missing its starting right guard and right tackle last Sunday. The Texans only had one sacks against the Bills, none by J.J. Watt.
This is a rare marquee matchup for the Texans. They have a number of former Patriot coaches and players. But their biggest game of the season actually comes next week when they play the Colts in a matchup that will hold huge implications for the AFC South Division title. 
The Patriots are used to pressure games and performing under the national spotlight. Not so with the Texans. 

The Raiders have actually played better on the road where there is less of a winning expectation. Apparently this, perhaps subconsciously, has removed some of the pressure from their young players.
Oakland has won three away games. The last time the Raiders did that was in 2011. 
Derek Carr is a much better quarterback than Brock Osweiler, who is more game manager than downfield threat. Only two of Carr's nine interceptions have come on the road. Carr also has only been sacked five times on the road compared to 11 at home. He has 26 touchdowns throws with a chance to set the Raiders' franchise record for TD passes in a season. 
Denver is extremely banged-up. Both of the Broncos' running back, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, are nursing injuries. Denver's offensive line is thinned by injuries and its defense could be missing four starters. 
The Broncos know how to win, but they are not built to cover margins like this. Only three of their 10 victories have come by more than seven points. Denver is averaging just 17.7 points during regulation in its last four games. 
The Raiders held the Broncos to without a touchdown on offense in a 16-10 loss in Week 5. 

The Bengals took advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger when they beat the Steelers, 16-10, in Week 8. Roethlisberger threw three interceptions in his first game back after missing four games because of a knee injury.
Look for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offense to play far better this time around. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. Roethlisberger is averaging 383.2 yards passing in his last four games throwing for 10 touchdowns during this span. Antonio Brown is a monster when Big Ben is behind center. He's caught seven touchdown passes in the eight games Roethlisberger has played. 
Making matters worse for the Bengals is their secondary has injuries. Cornerback Adam Jones is not expected to play due to a foot injury. Cincinnati also may be missing cornerback Leon Hall with a back injury and free safety George Iloka with a groin injury. Another cornerback, Dre Kirkpatric, is limited by a knee injury. Jones, Hall and Kirkpatrick are all veteran cornerbacks. If they're limited - or absent - the Bengals are forced to rely on a pair of rookies one being undrafted Troy Hill against one of the top passing offenses in the league. 
The Steelers have only given up three rushing touchdowns all season. I like Roethlisberger far better than Andy Dalton if this one turns into a shootout, which it very well could do. 
The Bengals have been fortunate up to this point with injuries. That luck, though, is running out. Cincinnati has only outgained five of its last 10 opponents. The Bengals are ripe for a fall with a three game division lead on the more desperate 7-5 Steelers. Pittsburgh has a strong history playing at Cincinnati and playing in December. 
The Steelers have won and covered in four of their last five visits to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh also is 8-0 straight-up and ATS in its last eight December games. 

In today's pass-crazy, rules-favoring offense a total of less than 41 should be considered very low. This is especially so inside a fast-track dome, which this matchup takes place in. 
Detroit's offense has picked up both running-wise and in pass-blocking. Matthew Stafford has played much better since Jim Bob Cooter became the new offensive coordinator. Stafford has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. Detroit is averaging 34 points during the last two weeks. 
The Rams' defense has tailed off with just six sacks in their five games. St. Louis is surrendering an average of 29 points during its last two games. The Rams also suffered a couple of key injuries last week. Already down team sacks leader Robert Quinn for the season, the Rams also could be missing strong safety Tim McDonald and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. 
This total is low because the Rams rank last in passing. Most of the Rams' season passing statistics come from Nick Foles, who has been beyond terrible. But Case Keenum is back this week. Keenum isn't very good either but he can provide a spark. Just about anybody under center would be an upgrade on Foles.
Remember, too, the Rams have one of the best running backs in football in Todd Gurley. Both teams can be dangerous on special teams, too. 

Look for a heavy dose of running between both teams with bad weather in the forecast. Heavy rain and gusting winds are predicted. The Redskins play far worst on the road. Even though they have failed to rush for 100 yards in seven games, the Redskins figure to stay on the ground a lot. That's Chicago's plan, too, given the weather conditions and Washington's below average run defense. The weather conditions are going to make it rough on both kickers, too. 

Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. 
The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. 
During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. 
Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense.
Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. 
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing. 

Arizona ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per game (419.5) and points (31.8) per game. Carson Palmer is on pace to throw for 4,924 yards and 39 touchdowns. 
The Vikings are going to be missing three of their key defensive players - linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Harrison Smith and nose tackle Linval Joseph. That makes Minnesota especially vulnerable to the Cardinals' high-powered offense. 
Palmer has three excellent wide receiving targets and rookie David Johnson gives the Cardinals a speed element out of the backfield. 
The Vikings were roundly criticized for their poor offensive showing and play-calling in last week's 38-7 loss to Seattle. Expect a lot more of Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater taking shots downfield to loosen up the Cardinals' run defense. 
The Cardinals' defensive statistics look good because they've played the Rams and 49ers the past two weeks holding those offensively-challenged foes to a combined 16 points.
Prior to playing those two teams, though, the Cardinals had surrendered 31 points to the Bengals and 32 points to the Seahawks. 

It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday.
Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 
Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. 
The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense. 

The Colts couldn't win a shootout last year against Ben Roethlisberger losing 51-34 at Pittsburgh. That was with Andrew Luck. I don't see the Colts keeping up with Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's high-scoring offense this year with Matt Hasselbeck and a having a worse team than from a year ago.
Hasselbeck is 4-0 replacing Luck. Kudos to him. But there's a due factor - and the clock is ticking. I see it stopping in this matchup. The Colts dominate their weak AFC South Division brothers. Out of division, though, they have problems. 
Roethlisberger has led the Steelers to three consecutive games of scoring at least 30 points. The Colts don't have the quarterback to keep up, nor the defense to slow down the Steelers especially minus underrated injured linebacker Jerrell Freeman. 
Pittsburgh ranks fourth in total yards despite not having Roethlisberger for four games and is seventh in run defense. They have too much balance for the Colts, who rank 22nd in yards and 26th in yards given up. 

Denver is in a prime letdown spot traveling to sunny San Diego after upsetting New England at home in a prime time Sunday night victory at home in frigid conditions. The Broncos won in overtime exerting a lot of energy in coming back from two touchdowns down in the final quarter.
The Broncos could be down three starters on defense on top of already being thin in the offensive line. The Broncos are led by Brock Osweiler, who has done a nice job since replacing Peyton Manning. But the Broncos are not a downfield, attacking type team. They are run-oriented and short-passing with Osweiler, not built to cover mid-size spreads against division foes on the road especially in a flat spot like this.
This has been a lost year for the Chargers. But they did get a large part of their confidence back by winning on the road last week. Philip Rivers is having another brilliant campaign. He makes the Chargers live to beat any foe. The Chargers have come close against the Bengals losing by five points, hung tough against the Packers having a chance to force overtime at the Green Bay three-yard line before running out of downs late in the game and losing at the gun at Baltimore. 
The Chargers are getting healthier, especially at linebacker. Rivers' savvy covers up their offensive line injuries and Melvin Gordon ran better last week. 

It's not that I'm in love with Miami. This handicap is far more of a fade on Baltimore. The Ravens are decimated without their quarterback, top running back, top wide receiver, top pass rusher and perhaps three starting offensive linemen. All together, the Ravens have lost a staggering 17 players for the season.
Yet the Ravens pulled off an improbable road win on Monday night against division rival Cleveland. It's one of the few times the Ravens get to celebrate this season. It also puts them in a terrible situation to go back on the road on a short week to face a frustrated Dolphins team that is much healthier than the Ravens. 
The Dolphins have been disappointing much of the season. But they are 3-4 under interim coach Dan Campbell compared to 1-3 under disposed coach Joe Philbin. Campbell isn't going to outsmart many opposing head coaches, but the Dolphins have been more physical under him and usually have been at their best in a bullying role.
That's the spot here as the Ravens are the Ravens in name only. Injuries have reduced their talent level to bottom of the barrel. Matt Schaub has a 12-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio since 2013. He has become the king of Pick-Sixes throwing five of them during this span. 
A switch in offensive coordinators should help the Dolphins revitalize their ground attack, which would make Ryan Tannehill more effective. 

I like the two young quarterbacks on these teams a lot. 
Blake Bortles makes things happen - be it with touchdown throws or interceptions. He's anything but a game manager. That's the kind of quarterback I like when going over a total. 
Any total posted below 44 points in  today's pass-happy, rules-favoring-offense NFL is a sweat for going below. 
Sparked by Bortles, the Jaguars are averaging 24.8 points in their last seven games. Their defense remains bad, though, particularly against the pass. That's why the Jaguars surrender 27.2 points per contest, fourth-highest in the league. 
Marcus Mariota is a dual-threat quarterback who was held back by former Titan coach Ken Whisenhunt. New coach Mike Malarkey is astute enough to give Mariota the green light to run. I expect him to exploit a weak Jacksonville defense. 

The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. 
Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. 
Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy.
The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense.
St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. 
The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. 
This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now. 

Detroit is going to get its points. So is Green Bay. 
The Packers scored 30 points at Minnesota the last time their backs were to the wall. That was against a much stronger defense.  
Green Bay's offense has underachieved after leading the NFL in scoring last year at more than 30 points a game. But the Packers still are in the top 12 averaging just under 24 points a game. 
Aaron Rodgers has a strong history against the Lions with a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last 13 games versus them. Eddie Lacy is running better and Green Bay's offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Packers were caught by surprise by the Lions playing press coverage during the first meeting. They won't be if the Lions try that again. 
Since that game the Lions lost veteran nickel back Josh Wilson and may be without free safety Glover Quin, who is the quarterback of Detroit's secondary and probably their third best defensive player in back of pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah and linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is out for the season. Quin suffered an ankle injury in the Lions' blowout win against the Eagles last Thursday. 
The Lions would lose a lot if Quin can't play. He would be replaced by James Ihedigbo, who is a veteran but lacks speed. He was burned by Jordan Matthews on a 24-yard touchdown catch after replacing Quin. 
Green Bay's receiving corps has been disappointing obviously missing Jordy Nelson. But Randall Cobb would rate a huge edge against rookie Quandre Diggs in the slot. Davonte Adams, James Jones and No. 4 wide receiver, underrated and now healthy Jared Abbrederis, would rate edges against starting cornerbacks Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson along with No. 4 defensive back Crezdon Butler thanks to Rodgers.
There shouldn't be any missed field goals either. Mason Crosby and Matt Prater are a combined 33-for-35 in field goals and will be kicking in a dome. 

Both offenses are going to treat this matchup with a very conservative approach. New England has to because of a cluster injury problem it has at wide receiver and on the offensive line. The Broncos have to because of the inexperience of Brock Osweiler, making just his second NFL start.
There also is bad weather to take into account. The forecast in Denver for this Sunday night matchup is for 15 degrees with the possibility of snow at around 60 percent. It's going to be frigid conditions not suitable for a lot of passing. 
The Patriots are minus tailback Dion Lewis and wide receivers Julian Edelman and Aaron Dobson. If Danny Amendola doesn't play, the Patriots won't have a wide receiver with more than 17 catches on the season. I'm expecting a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount running and eating clock for the Patriots.
The Broncos give up the fewest yards in the league. They have the top pass defense and have the most sacks with 34. 
The Patriots' defense has been underrated this season. Belichick should easily win a chess matchup against Osweiler, who attempted just three passes of more than 10 yards last week, none of which were completed. The Broncos could be missing their No. 2 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who hasn't caught a pass during the last two games. 

The Bengals are anxious to return to their winning ways after losing the past two weeks in nationally televised losses to the Texans and Cardinals. Cincinnati is very tough at home where they have covered 17 of their past 22 games.
Cincinnati doesn't have a major weakness and is one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Rams' strength is their defense and running back Todd Gurley. 
The Bengals have a balanced attack and a defense that allows 18.6 points per game, fourth-lowest in the NFL. I see the Bengals trumping the Rams on both sides of the ball. 
St. Louis' offensive line is decimated down three starters. Left tackle Greg Robinson has looked terrible. The Rams quarterback situation of Case Keenum and Nick Foles could be the weakest in the league and can't take advantage of the Bengals loading the box to stop Gurley. 
The Rams have scored fewer than 20 points in 60 percent of their games. They are averaging 14.6 points in their last three games. Their passing attack ranks last.
This also has been a very distracting week for the St. Louis players with its teammate, Steadman Bailey, getting shot. So focus could be an issue, too. The Rams can't hang close unless they produce an "A" effort. I don't see that happening based on matchups and situation. 

The Giants have dominated this series winning and covering the past five times, including 32-21 in Week 3. New York has won four of the past five games by double-digits. 
New York is off a bye, while the Redskins were pounded, 44-16, by the physical Panthers last Sunday. 
Eli Manning is on pace to throw 34 touchdown passes. The Redskins are thin at cornerback and rank 30th in run defense. They haven't been good running the ball either ranking 25th. 
Washington is a ground-and-pound team. Kirk Cousins commits too many turnovers for the Redskins to be anything but ground-and-pound. However, their rushing attack has sputtered as only once during the last six games has their leading rusher broken the 30-yard barrier.
The Giants also have their best pass rusher back, Jason Pierre-Paul. He drew constant double-teams from the Patriots two weeks ago. The Giants came close to dealing the Patriots their first defeat falling 27-26 on a field goal at the end of the game. The Redskins played the Patriots three weeks ago and were never in the game during a 27-10 loss. 

The Bills are a gritty team whose defense has improved as the season winds down with the players becoming more familiar with Rex Ryan's schemes. 
Buffalo just held the Patriots, with their second-rated offense, to a season-low 20 points. 
Kansas City is getting a lot of love, though, in this matchup because it has won and covered four in a row. Kudos to Andy Reid for keeping the Chiefs together after a tough early-season, but his team isn't that good.
The Chiefs hit a lucky patch during their win streak. First they beat the Steelers when Pittsburgh had to use Landry Jones at quarterback. Jones is one of the worst backups in the league. The Chiefs then caught the Lions in London when Detroit was still in disarray and had just made a switch in offensive coordinators. 
Kansas City then drew the Broncos when Peyton Manning was playing hurt and at his most ineffective. After that win was a victory last week against a messed-up, injury-racked Chargers squad that was at their lowest ebb. 
The Chiefs rank well below average in passing, which is no surprise with Alex Smith at center. Smith can win given weapons, but he's not going to pile on points. Because of their passing limitations, the Chiefs heavily rely on their tailback. That tailback could be third-stringer Spencer Ware. So Smith doesn't have outstanding weapons.

Houston's defense is playing extremely well giving up just two touchdowns during the last 14 quarters. J.J. Watt is having another MVP-type season with 11 1/2 sacks, including 7 1/2 sacks in his last four games.
The Texans are No. 1 in the NFL in third down defense and rank fifth in fewest passing yards allowed. Drew Brees is 36 and while still good, no longer is an elite quarterback. 
The Texans' defense playing well has coincided with Houston's offense reducing its tempo. The Texans are going at a much slower pace than they did earlier in the season. This makes sense because the Texans do no have a dynamic offense. They are going to look play ball control with their various mediocre running backs playing for field position and to run clock to keep the ball away from Brees.
The Saints were idle last week. There was a significant decision that happened during the Saints' bye week and that was defensive coordinator Rob Ryan getting fired replaced by former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen. Ryan has been out of touch with today's passing attacks for a long time. The Saints are on a record pace to give up the most touchdown passes in a season. Too many times New Orleans defensive players were out of position. Ryan's firing should have happened much earlier. 
I see the Saints defense being much improved under Allen, who built a strong reputation when he was the defensive coordinator of the Broncos. New Orleans' defensive talent is better than its statistics indicate. 
The combination of Houston's hot defense, conservative offense and expected huge improvement from the Saints defense puts me on the under. 

So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced.
Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence.
Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. 
Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. 
San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road.
When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win. 

Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. 
I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. 
The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. 
I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. 
It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. 
The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio.
Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman. 

Aside from the Patriots, the Bengals shouldn't be more than a field goal underdog to any team. The Bengals will be especially fired up to redeem themselves after being upset on Monday night at home by Houston.
This play isn't against the Cardinals. I like Bruce Arians a lot. The Cardinals are normally a play-on team - just not in this matchup at this price.
Arizona isn't helped being banged up in the offensive line and at wide receiver with Michael Floyd and John Brown each questionable. 
The Cardinals have been fortunate to play an easy schedule. Five of their victories have been against foes whose offenses are near the bottom of the statistical rankings. 
The Bengals are solid up and down. They don't have a serious weakness and own a 7-1-1 ATS mark. Andy Dalton is having his finest season backed by weapons at wide receiver, running back and tight end with Tyler Eifert, who has nine touchdowns in the red zone this season. 

No, the 49ers can't stay within two touchdowns of Seattle. Not with Blaine Gabbert and not down to street free agents at running back. 
Seattle has been dominant at CenturyLink Field and dominant versus San Francisco.
The Seahawks are 15-3 in their last 18 home games with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits. They are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing the 49ers. The 49ers haven't been able to break the 20-point barrier during any of their last nine meetings against the Seahawks, averaging a puny 10.8 points per game during this span. 
San Francisco has been held to 13 points combined during its last three games against Seattle. The Seahawks beat the 49ers, 20-3, in Week 7 outgaining the 49ers, 388-142. That was the 49ers' lowest yardage total in nine years. 
Gabbert is a downgrade on Colin Kaepernick, who was the quarterback in the first meeting. Gabbert lacks pocket presence and doesn't have anywhere near the mobility Kaepernick possess.
Seattle's offensive line finally has shown signs of coming around. The Seahawks are enduring a frustrating season. Look for them to take out their frustrations at home on a hapless foe.
The 49ers have gone from one of the better coaching staffs to one of the most overmatched. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Pete Carroll won't be shy about sticking it to the 49ers. 

Two straight losses and all of a sudden the Broncos are in the pick range with the Bears? No, no way.
Denver has a vastly superior defense that regains suspended Aqib Talib. The Bears are going to be without Eddie Royal again and possibly Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. 
Look for Denver's offense to pick up with Peyton Manning out of the starting lineup. Brock Osweiler is an upgrade. Manning had thrown the most interceptions in the NFL with an embarrassing 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he was any other quarterback he would have been benched long ago. 
The Broncos play the unbeaten Patriots next week. If they lose to the Bears they would seriously be looking at a four-game losing streak. That's another reason why the Broncos will be going all out here. 

The Raiders have a top-nine offense in both yards and points per game average. Derek Carr has emerged as a star with a 21-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. No quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes outside the red zone than Carr. 
Carr can take advantage of a weak Lions defense that gives up 29 points per game, second-highest in the NFL, and is depleted in the secondary. 
Playing inside a dome on artificial turf makes Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray faster and more dangerous for Oakland.
The Lions' offense has shown more signs of life under new offensive coordinator Joe Bob Cooter. The Raiders give up the third-most yards per game and rank 27th in pass defense. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are still a very strong hookup. 
The Raiders' pass rush is going to be down with Aldon Smith getting suspended by the league this week. 

Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game.
Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster.
This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense.
The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans. 

Both of these offenses are under the radar. 
The Jaguars are averaging 26 points during their last five games. Blake Bortles has become a playmaker in his second season. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each rank among the top 17 in receiving yards, the only receiving tandem in the NFL to rank that high. Hurns has scored a touchdown in each of his last seven games and is expected to play. 
The Titans lost their nose tackle, Al Woods, to a high ankle sprain this past Sunday. They also could be down their three top cornerbacks. Jason McCourty definitely is out perhaps for the season. Perrish Cox (hamstring) and Blidi Wreh-Wilson (hamstring) are questionable. They could be limited if they play. 
Tennessee's offense is coming around now that Marcus Mariota is healthy and Mike Mularkey is the head coach. He won't hold Mariota back or keep him from running like conservative Ken Whisenhunt did. Quietly, Delaine Walker has emerged as a top-10 tight end. The Titans' ground game has improved, too, with Bishop Sankey getting far less carries. 
The Jaguars' run defense is down a notch after losing tackle Sen'Derrick Marks to a torn right triceps this past Sunday. Only two teams give up more points per game than Jacksonville, which surrenders 28.3 per game. 
Both offenses won't be holding anything back with the chance of showing themselves off on a rare nationally televised game. 

There is a chance of rain for this game, but very little wind. 

The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. 
The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. 
The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. 
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS. 

The good news for the Cowboys is they finally get back Tony Romo next week.
The bad news is the Cowboys are 0-6 since Romo broke his collarbone. If they don't beat the Buccaneers then Romo's presence isn't going to mean anything.
This is a must game for Dallas - and I see the Cowboys getting a victory against this lowly opponent that doesn't know how to close out foes.
Tampa Bay also has been an abject failure at home going 1-12 in its last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium, 3-10 ATS. In games decided by six or fewer points under Lovie Smith, the Bucs are 2-9. 
Matt Cassel has gotten better each week he's been Dallas' starting quarterback. The Cowboys have come close in their last two games falling by one point to the Seahawks and in overtime to the Eagles. 
The Cowboys are short 'dogs. They are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times when getting points. The Buccaneers are a step down in class for the Cowboys. 

I can't see Ben Roethlisberger playing in this game. That puts the Steelers in peril for this heated, division rivalry game because the Browns, while not talented, can be ornery. They have an excellent track record as underdogs, too, 10-5-1 ATS since Mike Pettine became coach in 2014. 
Subtract Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell. Sub in Landry Jones, one of the weakest backup quarterbacks in the league, and the Steelers' offense loses their potency. The oddsmaker realizes this. That's why this is one of the lowest totals on the board. So taking more than four points is huge. 
The Browns have had 10 days between games having played in last Thursday's game. That's given them enough time to get Josh McCown back along with wide receivers Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins and several defensive backs from their battered secondary. 
Cleveland is not going to the playoffs. So the Browns have few chances to get up for games. This is one of those times against a hated division foe that has kicked them when they were down. With their bye coming up next week, I expect the Browns to hold nothing back. McCown has played surprising well for them. He holds a quarterback edge on Jones.  I'm fine if McCown doesn't play and Johnny Manziel does since he's practiced with the first-unit all week and has shown improvement. He brings a running dimension that McCown doesn't.

The Lions rank last in the NFL in points allowed giving up 30.6 a game. The Packers' offense is ready to explode after consecutive road games against the Broncos and Panthers. 

Now the Packers get their perfect patsy in the Lions. Detroit's defense has not been able to overcome the loss of linebacker DeAndre Levy and defection of lineman Ndamukong Suh. Without those two, the Lions don't have a single above average defender. 
Green Bay can take advantage being back at home especially with the obvious move to install James Starks as the primary runner ahead of ineffective Eddie Lacy. Starks also is a much better target out of the backfield than Lacy. 
The Lions' offense has underachieved. It should be better coming out of a bye. The Packers are banged-up in the secondary and some of their statistics are skewed by playing a number of weak offenses. It was just two years ago the Lions put up 40 points on the Packers, although that came in Detroit. 
The over has cashed five of the last six times the Packers have played in division and five of the past six times the Packers lost the previous week. 

San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. 
The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. 
Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. 
Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. 
San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. 
Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers.
San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. 
The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. 
Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal. 

Dallas beat the Eagles, 20-10, back in Week 2. It was a costly victory as the Cowboys lost Tony Romo. They haven't won since going 0-5, 1-4 ATS. Dallas is averaging less than 15 points a game during its last four games. 
Matt Cassel has been as bad as Brandon Weeden and that's as bad as it gets. The Cowboys have scored two touchdowns in their last three games. Dez Bryant is back, but his value is shot because he doesn't have a quarterback who can get him the ball. He caught just two passes for 14 yards last week. 
The Eagles are rested coming off their bye week. They are healthy again on defense. Philadelphia is very underrated defensively ranking in the top three against the run and top seven versus the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have picked off 11 passes while permitting 10 touchdown throws. They have 19 takeaways in seven games. The Cowboys, by contrast, have one takeaway during their last five games. 
Dallas has given up an average of 4.74 yards per rush during its last five games.
Chip Kelly is sharp enough to tweak his system to feature more running plays for DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to take advantage of Dallas' weaknesses. The Eagles' ground attack has picked up averaging 5.1 yards per rush during the last three games. 

Atlanta is much improved defensively under Dan Quinn. The Falcons have been fortunate, though, to draw a number of terrible quarterbacks.
That streak continues in this game with the worst of the worst - Blaine Gabbert. He would be terrible if had weapons, but the 49ers have nothing surrounding him. Gabbert has a career completion rate of just 53.2 percent with a 5.6 yards per average. 
San Francisco is down to its fourth-string running back. Vernon Davis is gone. Anquan Boldin is battling a hamstring injury and likely will be held out with the 49ers having a bye next week. The 49ers' offensive line has played terrible, too. 
The 49ers have been very good defensively at home holding four foes to an average of 15 points a game. Levi's Stadium is notorious for its slippery, slow grass surface. So that's a disadvantage for the Falcons, who play on carpet inside a dome. 
Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones are having big years for Atlanta. However, Matt Ryan has been mediocre. He's already committed 10 turnovers. 

First off, Tampa Bay can't win at home. The Buccaneers are 1-11 in their last 12 at Raymond James Stadium, 3-9 ATS.
Tampa Bay is giving up an average of 37.3 points in three home games this season. 
Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are red-hot. The Buccaneers rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.4 points a game. They have allowed 17 touchdown passes. 
The Giants were torched last week by Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is not Drew Brees. He's a rookie who is going to be without two of his three top wide receivers with Vincent Jackson not likely to play and Louis Murphy out. He may not have tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins either.
The Giants are the better team with the better quarterback. The Buccaneers are somewhat improved, but don't know how to win. They are 2-9 under Lovie Smith in games decided by six points or less. 

This isn't an overreaction to the Giants surrendering 52 points and 608 yards to the Saints last week. The Giants defense is real bad. There is no pass rush with only nine sacks in eight games. The linebackers are slow and the safeties are extremely shaky. 
Jameis Winston is improving each game helped by a solid 1-2 running punch of Doug Martin and Charles Sims. The Buccaneers are averaging 28.5 points in their last four games. 
The Giants' offense has improved, too, under second-year offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. The Giants rank fifth in scoring at 26.9 points a game. Eli Manning has thrown the fourth-most touchdown passes in the NFL with 17. Tampa Bay has surrendered 17 touchdown throws with just four interceptions. 
The Buccaneers are giving up the fifth-most points per game in the NFL at 28.4. 

Bad spot for Oakland. Near desperation time for Pittsburgh.
The Raiders are coming off a hugely satisfying home win against the Jets. Now, though, they have to fly East for an early start time against the Steelers. The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 Eastern Time Zone games.
Look for Pittsburgh's passing attack to be much better now that Ben Roethlisberger had a game to get the rust off. Losing Le'Veon Bell hurts, but the Steelers are fortunate enough to have one of the better backup running backs, DeAngelo Williams.
Oakland ranks second-to-last in pass defense. The Raiders have surrendered at least two touchdown passes in every game but one.
Pittsburgh's defense has been much better than perceived ranking fifth in fewest points allowed at 18.4 per game. That number shrinks to 16 points in the Steelers' last six games. Pittsburgh has held four teams to their lowest point total of the season, including the Patriots, Bengals and Cardinals. 
At 4-4 the Steelers are in must-win mode. 

Look for the Titans to come out fired-up playing harder and with more intelligence under new coach Mike Mularkey. 

Marcus Mariota gives the offense a huge lift and the running game should work better against the Saints, who allow the second-most yards per game in the NFL and third-most points per game at 29.2. 

Tennessee has an underrated secondary and it's going to be better this week with Perrish Cox, the team's best cornerback, set to return from an injured hamstring. 

The Saints achieved three of their four victories by a combined 15 points and that includes a six-point win in overtime. Their other victory was by 10 points against the Falcons, who were minus three in turonver ratio.

The Saints simply aren't good enough to be laying more than a touchdown like this against a team that should show much better than what is perceived due to Mariota being back and a coaching change. 

I can't see anything but a lopsided Bengals victory here. 
Cincinnati has way too much offense for Cleveland. The Bengals won't come in overconfident either after suffering a stunning home loss to Cleveland last year on a Thursday night. 
The Browns are going to be missing three members of their secondary, steady wide receiver Brian Hartline and starting quarterback Josh McCown.
I have no faith that Johnny Manziel can keep Cleveland in the game against this caliber of defense and on a short week. 

Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers' 6-0 is real. The Broncos' 6-0 is bogus. 
Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost.
The Broncos' offense has produced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning. 
Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He's tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He's as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true. 
The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too. 
Denver's home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can't outweigh Green Bay's considerable offensive edge. Today's game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can't keep up with Rodgers. 

Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater is coming off his best performance. Stefon Diggs has upgraded Minnesota's receiving corps and pumped up the offense. The Bears have a weak defense giving up 29.8 points per game, which ranks second-to-last. 
The Bears, though, have become dangerous on offense now that they are finally fully healthy at the skill positions. Alshon Jeffery makes a huge difference. Jay Cutler has a good history at home versus the Vikings throwing 16 touchdown passes against them in six games at Soldier Field. 

I'm not a fan of Cleveland's skill position players. I regard them as among the weakest in the league. Making matters worse for the Browns is Josh McCown is limited by a sore shoulder. Backup Johnny Manziel has proven to be near worthless disdained so far by many in the Cleveland organization. 
The Cardinals rank fourth in total defense. Only seven teams give up fewer points than Arizona, which has limited opponents to 19 points per game. 
This is a flat spot for the Cardinals, though. They are traveling on a short week. Their bye is next week. They are playing a bad, non-conference opponent. So focus could be a problem. So could fatigue. This marks Arizona's third road matchup in four weeks.  
The Browns' secondary should have back cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. The Cardinals aren't likely to have underrated wide receiver John Brown. 
Look for the Cardinals to run more since Cleveland ranks last in run defense. That's going to keep the clocking moving. 
Weather could factor, too. The forecast is for heavy winds up to 23 mph. 

Chip Kelly's high-tempo offense finally is picking up. So is DeMarco Murray, who has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and ran for 112 yards last week. Philadelphia is averaging 28.6 points in its last three games. The Eagles also have dangerous kick and punt returners so they are live, too, to score on special teams. 
Only one team runs plays at a faster pace than the Eagles. The Eagles have played five games against NFC South Division teams during the Kelly era and the combined points have never been below 50. The average total in these games is 54.6. 
The Eagles and Panthers met last year and Philly won, 45-21, at home. 
The Panthers have an underrated offense. Cam Newton is having a huge season. Greg Olsen is a top-five tight end. The Panthers showed how strong their offense is when they scored two touchdowns at Seattle during the final four minutes to pull out a victory last week. The Panthers are averaging even more points per game than the Eagles during their last three games - 30 a game. 
Newton can take advantage of the Eagles' cluster injury problem at linebacker where Kiko Alonso and Mychael Kendricks are out and DeMeco Ryans is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

The Saints have the worst defense in the league and are on the road. Not a good combination.
Chuck Pagano isn't the sharpest coach around that's for sure. But the Colts do play hard for him. They have a great track when playing bad teams - 19-4 ATS versus foes under .500. Indianapolis also is 17-3 ATS following a loss.
Andrew Luck showed enough against the Patriots that he's past his shoulder injuries.  to be trusted to put up a lot of points, especially against this opponent. Luck is 21-7 at home compared to 16-14 when on the road. 
Luck should light up a Saints secondary that has permitted 11 touchdown passes and has only two interceptions and is allowing 8.6 yards per pass.  

Now that the pressure is off them, the Chiefs will play loose and win. They are better than their record having already lost to three unbeaten teams and blowing a game against the Bears over the shock of seeing Jamaal Charles suffer a season-ending injury.
The Chiefs have loyal fans and they will play hard here to reward them. It's a huge help for Kansas City's offense that Jeremy Maclin has been cleared to play. 
But the biggest factor in this handicap is the strong belief that Landry Jones is going to be Pittsburgh's starting quarterback. He's one of the worst backups in the league. He's actually a third-stringer, but Michael Vick is hurt and won't play. Ben Roethlisberger still is a week away. 
Before last week, Jones had never played in a regular season game. His statistics from last week against the Cardinals at home look good, but they are highly misleading. Martavius Bryant turned an eight-yard pass into an 88-yard touchdown.
Now Jones has to make his first start - and it comes in a very difficult road setting. Kansas City can bring a lot of heat from the edges with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.  

Miami got a boost with a new head coach and defensive coordinator last week steamrolling Tennessee. But the Dolphins are as mediocre as Houston and the Texans will be far better prepared now that they have film on what the Dolphins did under interim coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. 
The Dolphins are in a flat spot. They were super pumped for their first game under new leadership last week. Up next following this game for Miami is a Thursday matchup versus New England. 
The Dolphins have failed to cover in their last five home games, losing four of them straight-up.
Houston's DeAndre Hopkins is making a case of being the best wide receiver in football. The Dolphins are thin in the secondary. Cornerback Brice McCain is unlikely to play and Brent Grimes, Miami's other corner, is less than 100 percent because of a knee injury. 
The Texans are getting better now that Arian Foster is close to 100 percent and Brian Hoyer is back entrenched at quarterback. Those two are massive upgrades on Ryan Mallet and Alfred Blue. 

This is my Favorite's Play of the Month. I'm not surprised the line has gone up since I released the play as the Rams clearly are the right side.

The Browns have gone hard three straight weeks losing 30-27 to the Chargers, beating Baltimore in overtime and losing in overtime last week to the Broncos. 

Cleveland doesn't have an abundance of talent. The Browns' skill position players are among the weakest in the league. It takes a supreme effort for the Browns to hang in against most opponents. 
I believe the Browns are out of gas for this road matchup. St. Louis is coming off its bye week. The Rams hold matchup, situation and field edges that should result in more than a touchdown victory. 
The Browns are a grass team. This is their first dome game. Cleveland ranks 30th in total defense, last in run defense. The Rams have a potential superstar running back Todd Gurley. He's healthy now and has rushed for 305 yards in his last two games. 
I'm not a fan of Rams quarterback Nick Foles, but he's still better than Browns journeyman Josh McCown and he has speed at the flanks. The Browns were missing two key members of their secondary last week, cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither practiced on Wednesday. I'm releasing this play Wednesday night as I see the line going higher.
Foles should be able to pick his spots, too, off play-action since the Browns will be keying on Gurley. 
St. Louis has 19 sacks in five games. The Rams have the best pass rushing defensive front in football. McCown plays scared when under pressure. I envision multiple turnovers from him against this defense. 
The Rams are stepping down in class after facing Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers. They should dominate McCown and his lack of weapons. 
Coaching-wise this is a mismatch, too, between Jeff Fisher and Mike Pettine. 

Eli Manning is having an elite season, the finest of his 11-year career. The Giants are averaging more than 28 points per game during the last three weeks. They ranked seventh in scoring entering this week. 
Manning has become adept at short, precision passes in the second year of operating offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's offense. This offense is tailor-made to take advantage of the Eagles having a cluster injury problem at linebacker and ranking 26th in pass defense. 
The Eagles offense has come around during the last two weeks averaging 29.5 points during this span. Sam Bradford finally looks comfortable. The Giants rank last in pass defense. They actually made Colin Kaepernick look good last week.
Bradford should be in line for his best game of the season, especially with the crippled Giants defense losing their best cornerback, Prince Amukamara. 
The tempo is going to be high speed. This total is way too low. 

I'm fully aware of New England's strong history against the Colts during the past three years - a 4-0 record with four blowouts. 
But I'm locking in at this price rang in the full belief Andrew Luck is going to play. And if Luck plays this price range is way too high given the Colts are home where they are 21-7-1 ATS (75%) during their last 29 games at Lucas Oil Stadium. 
Luck is going to provide a huge spark and emotional lift after missing the last two games. 
New England is the best team in the AFC right now. But the Patriots haven't played a difficult schedule drawing the Steelers at home, Bills on the road, Jaguars at home and Cowboys minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. 
The Patriots have faced just one good quarterback. Their rebuilt secondary hasn't faced a strong test in three games. The Colts have a lot of talent at the skill positions. Frank Gore is averaging 4.47 yards and has had 10 days to get his legs fresh as the Colts last played on Thursday giving them extra rest and prep time. New England ranks among the bottom 12 in rush defense. 
Tom Brady is going to be without his blindside protector as left tackle Nate Solder suffered a season-ending biceps injury. 

The Lions are at low ebb right now. But they finally are in a good spot. 
The Bears are one of the least talented teams in the NFL. They've been coached up by John Fox, but are off a surprising road upset victory coming from 14 points down to beat Kansas City and have multiple injuries. This also is the Bears' first dome game. The only other time they were on turf they were shut out by Seattle.
Jimmy Clausen was the Bears' quarterback in that game. Jay Cutler is an upgrade. However, Cutler is turnover-prone and could be missing his three top receivers and his left tackle. Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal missed last week and may not play Sunday. Martellus Bennett, a very good tight end, may be out, too. 
The Bears are hurting defensively, too. Their most experienced defensive back, Antrel Rolle, is out as is one of their better run defenders, linebacker Shea McClellin. 
The Lions are the lone winless team in the NFL. They desperately want to erase that stigma. The LIons have looked bad, but they've had a hard schedule. In their last three games they've played the Broncos, Seahawks on the road and Cardinals. The Bears are playing their second road game in a row and third in four weeks. They have a bye next week. It's a flat spot for them. 
Detroit has the offense to get its frustrations out in a big way. I see Matthew Stafford having his best game of the year. The Bears have intercepted just two passes while giving up 11 touchdowns through the air and 65 percent completions. 
Calvin Johnson manhandled cornerback Kyle Fuller last year in two games catching a combined 17 passes for 249 yards. 

Much credit to the Steelers for upsetting San Diego this past Monday. But I don't see the Steelers minus Ben Roethlisberger pulling off a second consecutive upset. 
Arizona continues to be underrated and is a good fit against this opponent. The Cardinals have a high-powered passing attack, underrated ground game and an aggressive defense. 
The Steelers have allowed more than 70 percent completions, fourth-worst in the NFL. They are vulnerable to Carson Palmer and once again will be minus their top defensive talent, linebacker Ryan Shazier. 
The Cardinals' offense, good to being win, is upgraded even more with the return to health of Andre Ellington and Michael Floyd. 
The spot is tough on Pittsburgh off a last-play, emotional road win against the Chargers and playing on a short week. 
The Cardinals aren't going to lack motivation. Not with Bruce Arians who had a parting of the ways with the Steelers four years ago. 
Michael Vick is way past his prime. The Cardinals not only lead the NFL in interceptions, but their secondary also has posted the fourth-lowest quarterback rating. Vick is going to have problems figuring out Arizona's defensive schemes. I see him committing a bunch of turnovers. 

This line has come down enough where I'm going to get involved with the Broncos.
Too much of a class difference. Even an aged Peyton Manning can take advantage of a weak Browns run defense and a secondary that has given up 10 touchdowns throws with only one interception and will be missing stud cornerback Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson. 
Josh McCown has put up fancy numbers the past three weeks, but he's stepping in against perhaps the best defense in the NFL. 
Denver has a bye next week. A focused Broncos squad should win this matchup by more than a field goal. 

Now that Bill O'Brien has figured out what everybody else knew that Brian Hoyer is his best quarterback, the Texans are ready to improve. They start here against one of the worst teams in the NFL - the Jaguars. 
Jacksonville has shown small improvement, but not enough to warrant being favored here especially since Arian Foster finally is fully healthy for Houston. Foster can dominate this game. So can J.J. Watt on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville can't match and has no answer for those players. 
The Jaguars are banged-up. Their best running back, T.J. Yeldon, may not play due to a groin injury and their best offensive lineman, guard Brandon Lindor, is out. The Jaguars gave up six sacks last week in a loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so he won't be 100 percent. 
Hoyer isn't anyone's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he's a huge upgrade on Ryan Mallet in terms of accuracy, game-managing and being a leader. Hoyer also has put up decent numbers - a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 62.1 percent completions and 8.21 yards per pass attempt. 
The Jaguars have one of the weakest home fields as reflected in a 7-18-1 ATS mark. 

The oddsmaker considers these teams even with this point spread factoring in the Chargers' home field advantage being worth a field goal. 
But San Diego is a touchdown better than Pittsburgh due to the Steelers dropping down at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick. Forget the past. The 35-year-old Vick is just a shell of his former self. His sloppy ballhandling and lack of work ethic really hurt him now that his once awe inspiring talent has all but diminished. 
Vick has lost 14 of the last 20 times he's started. The Steelers' defense isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for a mediocre offense with a turnover prone quarterback.
The Chargers should have three of their starting offensive linemen healthy after being out last week. Astute San Diego coach Mike McCoy knows how to get the best of Philip Rivers, who remains in his prime. 

This is a case of going over the total with a top 10 scoring team in the Giants against a buy-low underachieving 49ers offense that has talent and is facing the league's worst pass defense.
In today's NFL, with the rules heavily skewed in favor of offense, a total in this range is low. 
Not only did the Giants enter this week ranked 32nd in pass defense giving up 316.3 yards per game through the air, but they had surrendered the 26th most overall yards. Colin Kaepernick has the receiving weapons to take advantage with Torrey Smith and a still good Anquan Boldin. 
The 49ers catch the Giants missing a number of defensive players, including linebacker Devon Kennard and pass rusher Robert Ayers. 
San Francisco gave a strong defensive effort at home last week against Green Bay. But the 49ers are way down defensively due to retirements and free agency losses. They have been at their worst on the road giving up 47 points to the Cardinals and 43 to the Steelers. On the season, the 49ers give up the fourth-highest passer rating and are tied for second-worst with a 9.2 yard per pass attempt against. The 49ers have given up seven touchdown passes in their last three games with only one interception. 
The 49ers also could be without one their better defensive players, linebacker Ahmad Brooks. His sister died this week so he may not play. 
Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. can light up this low caliber of defense.

Neither of these offenses impresses me. 
I rank the Browns as having the worst skill position players in the league. The Ravens' defense is down from past greatness, but still is respectable especially at home. I have no confidence in Josh McCown, who has lost 13 of his last 14 starts and has more turnovers than touchdown passes during this span. 
McCown is good for the under. He's not talented enough to make effective downfield throws. But he's savvy enough to be careful with his throws and play-calling, which is usually very conservative. He also doesn't make good plays off broken plays preferring to take a sack unlike Johnny Manziel, who should be the Browns' starting quarterback. 
The Ravens are down two of their four best wide receivers, including Steve Smith Sr. They also could be missing left tackle Eugene Monroe. If you discount their game against the Raiders, the Ravens are averaging less than 20 points per game during regulation. 
The Browns have a respectable defense. 

The Chiefs have a strong offense. Jeremy Maclin is a very good wide receiver. Jamaal Charles is a top three running back and Travis Kelce is a top five tight end.
Kansas City is 10th in the league in scoring at 25 points a game. The Chiefs have achieved this despite opening against the Texans, Broncos, Packers and Bengals. Now they step way down in class to face the Bears. Chicago has been terrible defensively the past two years - and the Bears are just as bad this season surrendering 31.2 points per game. That's the second-most points given up per game in the NFL. 
Bears coach John Fox knows he doesn't have the right personnel nor talent to field a good defense this season. Already the Bears have started dumping defensive players for low draft choices. 
The Bears, though, are respectable on offense with Jay Cutler back behind center. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago's best wide receiver, also should be back this week. 

The Rams have that winning combination with the best pass rushing defensive front in football and potential franchise back Todd Gurley to run the ball. 
Finally healthy and comfortable in a new offense, Gurley had his breakout party last week rushing for 146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona. Green Bay has improved its run defense but still ranks 21st versus the run. 
The Packers are vulnerable to a great pass rushing defensive line minus right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Green Bay's weak links on its offensive line are replacement right tackle Don Barclay and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who will be matched against Robert Quinn. The Packers won't be able to double team any of the Rams because St. Louis doesn't have a weak link on its defensive front. 
Instead look for Green Bay to run the ball more than normal, which eats clock. Aaron Rodgers already is down Jordy Nelson and doesn't expect to have Davonte Adams either. 
The last time Nick Foles played at Lambeau Field was in 2013 when he led the Eagles to a 27-13 win throwing for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Gurley makes Foles and everyone else on offense a better player. 
Jeff Fisher has long been a money-making as an underdog coach with better than a 58 percent ATS record when his team gets points. 

This is a kill spot for the frustrated Chiefs, who are much better than their 1-3 record indicates. The Chiefs have already gone against three undefeated teams - Broncos, Packers and Bengals. 
The Bears are in total rebuild mode. They aren't going to win too many games this season. One of those rare victories came this past Sunday at home against Oakland. Now the Bears are traveling fat and happy to have achieved their first victory.
The Chiefs have a top 10 offense and their defense is stepping down in class. Justin Houston ranks with J.J. Watt as the best pass rusher in football. He'll be going against a Bears offensive line that will be missing its injured starting center and possibly left tackle. 
Jay Cutler is highly turnover prone when pressure is applied to him, which it will against a fierce pass rushing opponent in a very hostile environment. 
Chicago's average loss this season is by 19.6 points. I see a similar result here. The Chiefs have covered five of their last six home games when taking on a foe with a losing record. 

Seattle's defense is rounding into championship form with the arrival of safety Kam Chancellor last week. 

Detroit has problems offensively. The Lions rank last in rushing, their work-in-progress offensive line has allowed Matthew Stafford to absorb way too much punishment and Calvin Johnson has lost some of his explosiveness. 
Playing in the NFL's loudest outdoor venue can only make these problems worse for Detroit. This is the 0-3 Lions' season. But their offense hasn't found balance and the offensive line hasn't come together. That's not going to happen here against this elite defense. 
Detroit also has road issues covering just one of their last eight away matchups. 
Russell Wilson doesn't lose at Century Link Field. He's won 23 of 25 starts there. The Seahawks won't have Marshawn Lynch, but they are deep at running back and the Lions still will be missing their best defensive player, linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Much is being made of the Lions in must-win mode. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Seahawks know they must win this game as their next two games are against undefeated teams - at the Bengals and hosting the Panthers. 

The Saints are desperate at 0-3. They'll receive a huge lift with Drew Brees returning to the lineup. It's a Sunday night nationally televised game at home so the Saints will be super pumped. 
The Saints' offense is better than it has shown. It can expose a vulnerable Dallas defense that has relied on its offense to hide its shortcomings by playing ball control. 
The Cowboys, though, aren't capable of sustaining long drives minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts. 
Weeden needs weapons to succeed, but Dallas just has fringe, role players manning the skill position spots with Bryant out and Murray in Philadelphia. 

Given how crisp their offense has been, the Cardinals can nearly cover this total themselves.
Arizona leads the NFL in scoring at 42 points per game. Carson Palmer has thrown nine touchdown passes. Only Aaron Rodgers has thrown more this season. Thanks to offensive guru Bruce Arians, Palmer is playing at his highest level. 
The Rams have an excellent pass rush, but they are not a dominant defense. 
St. Louis has enough offense to put up its share of points helping this total go over. The Cardinals don't have a dominant defense either. They've been fortunate to play the Saints, Bears and 49ers - all of whom have quarterbacks that have played sub-par. 
The Rams offense will be helped by an improved ground attack that should be better with Todd Gurley playing in his second game. Arizona's defense misses astute defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, now the Jets head coach. 

Granted San Diego has a big edge at the skill positions. But the Browns have five Pro Bowl players combined in their offensive line and secondary. 
Philip Rivers can't do much when he's not adequately protected, nor can the Chargers take advantage of Cleveland's vulnerable run defense when their offensive line is battered by injuries.
Left guard Orlando Franklin already has been ruled out for San Diego. The Chargers had three other offensive line starters who didn't practice Friday and may not play either. They also could be down to their third-string tight end as Antonio Gates remains under suspension and Ladarius Green is questionable. 
The Browns aren't flashy, but quietly they are 5-0 ATS when taking five or more points under Mike Pettine. They also have the most dangerous player on the field in big-play guy Travis Benjamin, who already has five all-purpose touchdowns. 
Veteran Josh McCown should have time to pick his spots. The Chargers only have one sack on the season. 
The Chargers have been serious money-burners failing to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. They are just 1-5 during their last six home games. 

Atlanta is a surprising 3-0. The Falcons are fat and happy right now. 
New coach Dan Quinn has improved the Falcons. But they still are more finesse than brawn, vulnerable mentally and physically to the Texans. Houston is a power team. No team runs the ball more than the Texans.
I like Houston's edges in the trenches. The Falcons don't have a dominant blocker who can handle J.J. Watt. The Texans can control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons' defensive line, too.
The Texans are expecting to get back from injury this week star running back Arian Foster and left tackle Duane Brown, their best offensive lineman. Ryan Mallet is getting better as he settles into a starting role. This will be his third start in a row. Alfred Blue had a breakout performance this past Sunday and would be capable if Foster still isn't ready to play.
The Texans rank in the top 12 in yardage both offensively and defensively. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank in the bottom six in yards given up. 
Atlanta could be 0-3 in which case this line would be much different.
The Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter during all three of their games. They took advantage of a sleepwalking, out of sync Eagles team at home opening week, beat a bad Giants team in Week 2 and this past Sunday were able to overcome a big early deficit to defeat Dallas, which was minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and several key defensive players. 
The Falcons are ripe for a loss. The Texans are a bad matchup for them. 

Take away Ben Roethlisberger and the Ravens are the better team. Much of the disadvantage of being the road team on a Thursday game is negated by the Ravens knowing the Steelers better than any team from their long-standing division rivalry and the short travel distance involved.
Still, I respect the rivalry aspect of this matchup. These teams have played a lot of games through the years that were determined by exactly three points. So with respect to that, I believe the best approach is to lay higher juice and take Baltimore on the money line - to win straight-up without laying any points.
The Ravens are in desperate straits at 0-3. Their defense is down this season, but it still is better than Pittsburgh's. The Steelers had a supreme gutty effort against the Rams last week, but that took tremendous effort and emotion. This short week hurts them. It also cuts down on the prep time for Michael Vick, who never was a quick study and now is so far past his prime that he looks finished. 
The Steelers are going to rely heavily on Le'Veon Bell. The Ravens know this. They haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 consecutive games. They'll be stacking the line daring the washed-up Vick to beat them. 
Joe Flacco is going to produce points. The Steelers have given up two or more touchdown passes in 11 of their last 13 games. The only quarterbacks not to throw multiple touchdown passes against the Steelers during this span were Nick Foles and Alex Smith. 

There are reasons why Detroit is 0-2. Namely the Lions' offense isn't clicking and their defense is much worse than last season. 
Matthew Stafford is far from 100 percent. Denver has the top pass defense in the league and has the pass rushers to take advantage of Detroit's banged-up, refurbished offensive line that hasn't played well. 
On defense the Lions are greatly missing the departed Ndamukong Suh and injured linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions surrendered 33 points, 28 first downs and 483 yards to San Diego in Week 1. Then last week the Lions allowed the Vikings 350 yards and 20 first downs. 
Peyton Manning doesn't possess the physical skills he had in his prime. But he's still perhaps the smartest quarterback in the game and is much better in the shotgun. That's the formation Manning should find himself in against the Lions after new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak made the mistake of putting Manning under center opening week. 
Detroit's run defense is down from a year ago. I see C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman producing their best games of the season, which will set up Manning for his still deadly play-action passes. The Broncos also run better out of the shotgun averaging 3.6 yards from that formation compared to 2.7 when Manning is under center. 

None of the last six games in this series have gone over the total. I see that trend continuing here. 
The Bills have a top-four defense. The Dolphins lack dynamic players at the skill positions and their best offensive lineman, left tackle Branden Albert, isn't likely to play due to a hamstring injury. Tailback Lamar Miller and tight end Jordan Cameron are banged-up, too, for Miami but I expect them to play. 
Buffalo led the NFL in sacks a year ago. Their defense is just as strong this season. The Bills defense is looking for redemption, too, after getting buried at home last week by the high-scoring Patriots. Miami is averaging 10.6 points its last three games against Buffalo.
Look for the Dolphins to show well defensively, too. Bill Belichick showed the blueprint on how to stop Tyrod Taylor and that's keep him in the pocket. This is Taylor's first road start in the NFL. The Dolphins' run defense should improve each game as Ndamukong Suh and his new teammates get more comfortable with each other. 

The Colts are out of the gates slow. But keep in mind they faced two of what I consider to be the top four defenses in football the Bills on the road and Jets where they suffered a turnover festival.
Do you really see Indy opening 0-3? I sure don't. The Colts are stepping way down in class against the Titans, a team they swept last season winning by an average of 20.5 points. The Colts have won the past seven in this series going 6-0-1 ATS.
The Titans defense was weak last season and has yet to face a good offense this season going against the Buccaneers and Browns. Even so the Titans surrendered two long touchdown passes to Johnny Manziel before the Browns went conservative. If Manziel can do that against the Titans, it's scary to think of what Luck can do against the Titans. 
The Colts have injuries in their secondary, but they do have their top cornerback, Vontae Davis, healthy enough to play. This is a kill spot for the Colts. 

This total is too high. It would make more sense if the Cowboys had anybody worthy at the skill positions and this was the Falcons defense of a year ago. 
Atlanta is much improved defensively under Dan Quinn, who was the Seahawks' defensive coordinator last season. 
The Cowboys are minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Without those two, the Cowboys' skill position players rank with the Arian Foster-less Texans and Browns as having the worst skill position set. 
Brandon Weeden is the worst starting quarterback going in Week 3 - and that's saying a lot with Jimmy Clausen and Luke McCown also drawing starts. Weeden is turnover prone, locks into one receiver and throws a high number of simple checkdown passes that gain little yardage.
The Cowboys do have a solid offensive line. However, their running backs are below average. Tempo is very important when playing a total. I see the Cowboys playing at an extremely slow pace and very conservatively. Their goal is to control clock keeping the ball away from dangerous Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. 
Ryan doesn't play as well outside of Georgia Dome. The Falcons also are without their best running back, Tevin Coleman. 

This is my strongest totals recommendation of the season so far. Indy's offensive struggles were well documented this past Monday night in clear view of a national audience - and the oddsmaker. 
That's why I believe this over/under is short. The Colts' offense is much better than it has shown. The big thing to keep in mind is the Colts opened on the road in bad weather conditions at Buffalo. Then they faced the Jets. Those are two elite defenses. I would rank both Buffalo and the Jets as top-four defenses.
Now the Colts drop way down in class to face Tennessee, a team they averaged 34 points against last season. Andrew Luck has better weapons and more depth at wide receiver this season. The Titans lack the talent and personnel to put heat on Luck like the Bills and Jets did. 
I have no doubt the Colts are going to put up their share of points. The matchup also sets up well for the Titans' offense, which is much improved with potential franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota. He's impressed me with his accuracy and poise. The Titans have underrated receiving weapons and Dexter McCluster provided an unexpected upgrade to Tennessee's ground game last week.
The Colts' defense isn't strong to start with and it's further weakened by a cluster injury problem in the secondary. 
Given the caliber and state of Indy's battered defense, Mariota can hang with Luck in what should be a shootout. 

The Colts really struggled in Week 1 at Buffalo. But that was due to a combination of going against a strong Bills defense on the road and dealing with unfamiliar cold, windy weather conditions. 
The Colts' offense will look a lot better back at home in their normal setting on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts were out of sync opening week, passing way too much and losing their franchise receiver, T.Y. Hilton, during the game.
Hilton practiced Saturday and should be a go. Andrew Luck has a loaded hand with the additions of Andre Johnson, Frank Gore and rookie Phillip Dorsett joining Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Luck also has a pair of good pass-catching tight ends, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, to attack the Jets.
Few teams can match Indy's skill position depth. The Jets' defense is going to undergo some culture shock going from playing the Browns opening week at home to now facing the high-powered Colts on the road. Further hurting the Jets is that Antonio Cromartie, a versatile and very good cornerback, isn't likely to play after suffering a knee injury against Cleveland. 
The Jets' offense is better than perceived. Ryan Fitzpatrick was coached up at Buffalo by Chan Gailey, who is the Jets' offensive coordinator. Fitzpatrick is at his best when he has weapons around him and doesn't have to overdo things. 
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker provide Fitzpatrick with an above average receiving duo. Chris Ivory is expected to have a big year and he didn't disappoint in Week 1. Ivory should play despite getting nicked up in practice during the week. He is one of my fantasy football starters this week. That's how much confidence I have in him. 
The Colts' defense gave up 10.3 yards per pass to Tyrod Taylor, who was making his NFL starting debut, last week and 6.2 yards per run to Buffalo. The Bills don't have a big-play offense, yet they still produced seven plays of 20 or more yards against the Colts. 
Indy does not have a defense to match its offense. The Colts are vulnerable through the air especially in this matchup because their No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks - Greg Toler and Darius Butler - are both out. 

This isn't just a normal game for the Packers. It's their Revenge Game of the Century. And that's saying a lot since they've been in the NFL since 1921! I've personally closely followed the Packers since 1963, being a native of Wisconsin, and have never seen a bigger revenge game.
The Packers dominated the Seahawks on the road for 55 minutes of the NFC Championship Game this past season. Mike McCarthy's conservative play-calling and being unable to recover an on-side kick cost the Packers the game in which they once held a 16-point lead.
But now things are different. The Packers finally get Seattle in Green Bay. Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have eight Pro Bowl-worthy players on offense. Aaron Rodgers put up insane record numbers at Lambeau Field last season: a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 133.2 regular season passer rating, highest in NFL history.
Seattle's defense is down from its previous two dominant seasons. Attrition and defections have chipped away at the Seahawks' defensive line and secondary depth. Two defensive guru coaches - Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn - have left for head coaching jobs. Safety Kam Chancellor, the quarterback of the defense, is holding out.
The Rams - with maybe the worst offensive line and starting two rookie linemen - scored 34 points on the Seahawks. 
Green Bay's defense is middle of the road. Seattle has offensive line problems with a lot of shuffling. It's mediocre at best. So are the Seahawks' wide receivers. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had as many big games away from Century Link Field. 
Seattle isn't nearly intimidating and doesn't play nearly as well on the road. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their past 11 September road matchups. 
This is a kill spot for the Packers. They'll get it done in a big way. 

The Eagles finally got their offense in gear during the second half against Atlanta. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they had dug themselves into too big of a hole to recover. Still, they could have taken a late lead if not for a missed 44-yard field goal.
The Eagles will be sharper in Week 2 at home. Dallas' pass rush is down without suspended Greg Hardy and injured Randy Gregory. The Cowboys also are without suspended linebacker Rolando McClain. 
The Eagles have improved defensively and draw the Cowboys minus Dez Bryant, their lone deep threat and by far their best receiver. The Cowboys lack the running backs and wide receivers now to trade points with the high-powered Eagles. 

The Bengals are better than perceived. They are solid on both sides of the ball without any major weaknesses. 
Cincinnati has been dominant at home going 14-2-1 SU, 13-3-1 ATS. The Bengals draw San Diego traveling from the West Coast with an early start time.
The Chargers are not the complete team Cincinnati is. San Diego has a weak run defense, vulnerable to the inside pounding of Jeremy Hill. They also lack a good pass rush.
Andy Dalton has his full complement of weapons with Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones healthy, unlike last season. 
On offense, the Chargers are without suspended tight end Antonio Gates and injured tackle D.J. Fluker. Melvin Gordon has yet to step up to provide more than a mediocre ground attack in support of Philip Rivers. 

The Steelers are a much better team than San Francisco and catch a huge scheduling break.
The 49ers are off a home win Monday night against the Vikings and now must travel West to East on a short week. The 49ers had a lot to prove against the Vikings - and they did the job. Now they're in a letdown spot. This is an early start time, too, so their biological clocks are going to be off. 
The Steelers have extra rest and preparation time having opened last Thursday. The Steelers outgained the Patriots by 103 yards in their opening week loss. Even without suspended Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers have far more firepower than the 49ers.
Colin Kaepernick has been in steady decline for the past two seasons. Even with his mobility Kaepernick was sacked an NFL-high 52 times last season. The Steelers' defense has a lot of youth. They will improve as the season goes on. The Steelers' defense will look a lot better against the 49ers. 

The Saints are getting by on reputation considering how big of a spread this is.
Truth be told, the Saints' defense is awful again unable to get sacks or takeaways. Their secondary is highly vulnerable due to a cluster injury problem that has eliminated their two best defensive backs.
Drew Brees can't cover this up anymore. Brees is past his prime and has the least effective weapons he's had since being with New Orleans. 
The Saints' home mystique no longer is there either. Not only did the Saints fail to cover in their last five games at the Superdome, but lost each game straight-up. 
Tampa Bay lost to the Saints in overtime and by three points during its two meetings last season. The Buccaneers are better this year. Jameis Winston should play much better this week after enduring butterflies in his first NFL start last Sunday.
Not only is Winston going against a porous secondary, but he's expected to have Mike Evans. Evans missed Week 1, but should be a go this week. He's an elite, tall target. His presence makes Winston better. 

The Bears' defense has been franchise-history bad the past two years - and it's still very bad this season. John Fox and Vic Fangio have outstanding defensive backgrounds, but the players they have now don't fit their defensive philosophies. 
Chicago is composed of a bunch of defensive ends trying to play linebacker. The Bears' secondary is very weak, too. Kyle Fuller has regressed since the first half of his rookie season. 
The Cardinals have the passing game to take advantage with Carson Palmer throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and underrated John Brown. The Cardinals also have upgraded their receiving at tight end. Palmer has a 30-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last 16 starts while throwing for 4,466 yards during this span. 
Arizona's defense is down from last season after losing ace coordinator Todd Bowles. The Bears still have firepower on offense. Matt Forte remains one of the best all-around running backs in football.