The 49ers still need to take care of business with a victory in this matchup to wrap up the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Jim Harbaugh won't allow San Francisco to let up or not play hard.

The Rams are hopeless. They lost to the 49ers earlier this month, 26-0, behind second-string quarterback A.J. Feeley. San Francisco's top-ranked defense held the Rams to 31 yards rushing and nine first downs.

St. Louis isn't going to be any better this week with third-string quarterback Kellen Clemens. Josh McDaniels has a sharp offensive mind, but his system and stubborn reliance on it has proven disastrous for the Rams, who lack quality receivers aside from Brandon Lloyd and have a makeshift offensive line that is overwhelmed by strong defensive fronts.

St. Louis is averaging a league-low 11.1 points. The Rams are 31st in total offense at 281.7 yards per game. San Francisco is giving up the fewest points at 13.5 per game and also rate No. 1 in rush defense.

The 49ers are not in a good mood either after Marshawn Lynch became the first running back in 37 games to run for 100 yards on them.

San Francisco lacks an explosive offense. But the 49ers can run the ball with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. The Rams are surrendering 154.5 yards per game on the ground, worst in the NFL.

Some may think that laying double-digits on the road in the NFL is a bad thing. But each matchup has to be examined in its own individual terms. In this case, I don't see the Rams staying anywhere close to the 49ers. They don't have the talent, sophistication or motivation.

St. Louis is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games. The Rams are averaging 6.5 points during the last four weeks.

The 49ers kill the Rams in the trenches. They don't have to do anything fancy or unusual to cover this number.

The wrong team is favored in this one.

Right now Indianapolis is plain better than Jacksonville. The Colts are playing their best ball having won two in a row knocking off Tennessee, an above .500 team, and Houston, a division champion.

Jacksonville is decimated physically - down 12 defensive backs including their top four corners - and mentally.

Playing at home means nothing for the Jaguars because their apathetic fans don't care about this matchup and won't come out.

The Colts' offense is better with Dan Orlovsky at quarterback. He has three good wide receivers to throw to. The Jaguars don't have nearly the secondary depth, or decent pass rush, to bother Orlovsky.

Jacksonville is laying more than a field goal yet averaging less than 15 points per game. The Jaguars rank last in total offense and in passing yards.

The Colts will be keying on Maurice Jones-Drew knowing overmatched rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and his pedestrian wideouts can't hurt them.

The Colts also have had extra time to prepare and rest having last played on Thursday.

The Colts have a number of proud veterans. The team isn't going to lie down in order to land the first overall pick, especially when it's not crucial with Peyton Manning coming back.

New England is at least three touchdowns better than Buffalo at home.

The key for the Patriots is motivation. And the Patriots should have plenty of that. They still need a victory to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

There's also revenge. The Bills upset New England in Week 3 as Tom Brady tied a career-worst with four interceptions.

I thought this line would be much higher. Yes, the Bills are off a 40-14 pasting of Denver. Brady isn't Tim Tebow, though. Before this past Saturday, Buffalo had lost seven in a row by a combined margin of 124 points. The Bills are 0-6 on the road, 0-5-1 ATS.

New England does have injuries in its offensive line, but the Bills' offensive line is in worse shape. It's nearly decimated.

The Patriots' defense should start improving as key injured players have started to return. Before defeating the Broncos, the Bills were averaging 14.2 points in their previous seven games. New England is averaging 30.9 points and ranks No. 2 in total offense and passing.

The Patriots had won 15 in a row against Buffalo before Week 3. They are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings versus the Bills.

Buffalo generates no pass rush. The Bills are sitting ducks for a motivated Brady, who has a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games, and their offense isn't nearly strong enough to trade points.

The Jets had no problem handling the Dolphins back in Week 6 winning, 24-6.

This game should follow suit. The Jets have had a very disappointing season, but they still match up well to Miami and have more motivation since they still need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Miami has no motivation with a lame duck head coach and a losing record. Don't expect much crowd support negating home-field advantage. Worse, the Dolphins have two significant injuries on offense. Out is their best pass blocker, Jake Long, and best running back, Reggie Bush.

That leaves Brandon Marshall as Miami's only playmaker and Darrelle Reavis can handle him. The Jets play their best when their backs are to the wall. Their defense is strong enough to handle weak offenses like Miami minus Long and Bush.

The key for the Jets is to not fall behind. They are at their best running the ball and going with a conservative offense. Their defense can easily shut down the punchless Dolphins while the Jets have enough offense to win this game straight-up.

The Jets have been gold in this pointspread range covering nine of the past 11 times they've been a road 'dog of up to three points.

Consequently, Miami is 9-30 ATS as a home favorite.

I'm not about to step in against a red-hot Drew Brees, who has thrown for 1,776 yards and 16 touchdowns with no interceptions in his last five games.

The Saints are averaging 40 points at the Superdome this season.

Note, too, though that New Orleans also gives up more yardage at home. The Falcons are going to put up their share of points. So over the total is the best way to go.

Matt Ryan plays much better inside a dome. The Falcons know the Saints are going to be blitzing. That's the only way the Saints can be effective because their base defense isn't very good.

So I'm expecting more no-huddle sets from the Falcons than usual. This will keep the Saints off balance and give Ryan more time and also the option of handing off to Michael Turner, who historically plays well against the Saints.

The two teams met six weeks ago and the Saints won, 26-23. There were seven field goals and only four touchdowns in that matchup. Despite only four touchdowns being scored the two teams came close to going over 52.

The Falcons were brutal in the red zone in that matchup failing to score a touchdown in three possessions inside the 20.

I certainly see more than four touchdowns in this rematch with both offenses healthy and heating up. Playing on a fast track in perfect conditions only enhances that.

Minus Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and now Johnny Knox, the Bears' offense is down and out. Chicago has managed just 27 points during the last three games. Now the Bears are also likely to be without Devin Hester, who has an ankle injury and didn't practice all week.

Hester and Knox are not only dangerous wide receivers, but they are Chicago's two top return men.

Caleb Hanie is out as the starting quarterback, but there's not much - if any - improvement with the switch to 32-year-old journeyman Josh McCown. McCown needs weapons around him to move the ball. He doesn't have that.

The Packers shouldn't need Aaron Rodgers to play the entire game to beat the Bears. They will be extra careful down several offensive lineman, including starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

The Bears have the defensive front seven to pressure Rodgers, especially with a still highly-effective Julius Peppers. The Packers realize that and will be calling more running plays than usual. Green Bay has its top four running backs all healthy for the first time in a month with James Starks back.

The Bears' game plan also is going to feature a lot of conservative play-calling with frequent runs. The Bears are down to their third-string tailback, Kahlil Bell. The Packers rank 12th in run defense.

Green Bay has come away with at least one takeaway in 18 of its last 19 games. The Packers also get back from a calf injury Desmond Bishop, who has arguably been their best linebacker this season.

Snow isn't expected, but temperatures are expected to be in the 20s with a seven mph crosswind.

A fast track, two elite quarterbacks at the top of their games and a depleted Lions secondary will spell over the total.

Helped by finally having healthy receivers, Philip Rivers has thrown eight touchdown passes in the last four games with no interceptions. He'll be operating against a Detroit secondary missing key personnel. Ryan Mathews has stepped up to post his best four-game rushing total averaging 113.2 yards during the past four weeks.

The Lions are giving up 30.8 points during their last six games. Detroit, though, is more than capable of scoring against a mediocre Chargers defense that gives up more than 22 points per game despite playing six weak offenses in the last eight weeks, including Kansas City, Jacksonville and Buffalo.

Matthew Stafford has thrown for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns in the last five games.

Both offenses will be aided playing in a dome stadium.

The Dolphins have become a very tough out covering seven of their last eight games.

Miami historically is outstanding on the road, too, going 21-8-1 ATS. This includes a 3-1 ATS mark in its last four visits to Foxboro.

The Patriots don't have a strong enough defense to lay this many points against a decent team. The Patriots have allowed the most first downs and rank last in total defense and pass defense.

The Patriots have compiled these horrible defensive statistics despite playing inaccurate quarterbacks. The last five quarterbacks the Patriots have faced are Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman and Tim Tebow.

The Dolphins aren't fancy, but Matt Moore and Reggie Bush are having career years. Bush has rushed for 406 yards in his last three games. Brandon Marshall is a big-time talent who can take advantage of a vulnerable Patriots secondary that has been reduced to using wide receivers.

The Patriots suffered a key defensive injury last week when Andre Carter suffered a season-ending quad injury. He was the Patriots' only big-time pass rusher.

Miami showed it could play in cold weather beating Buffalo on the road last week. That game followed the Dolphins' worst performance in their last eight games, a loss to the Eagles.

The Dolphins proved against the Bills that they will continue to play hard even under interim coach Todd Bowles.

We know the Bengals have a good defense. The numbers back that up. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 in fewest points allowed, total defense and rushing defense.

But what about Arizona? The Cardinals surrendered an average of 26.1 points and 390.7 yards per game during their first seven games. In their last seven games, though, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 17.4 points and 325 yards.

There are several reasons for this among them being the Cardinals are more in sync with defensive coordinator Ray Horton's system and top rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson is improving his coverage as he gains more experience.

During this seven-game span no opponent has scored more than 23 points on the Cardinals despite two of the games going into overtime. Consequently, Cincinnati has hit a roadblock on offense. The Bengals haven't broken the 24-point barrier during any of their past seven games.

Cincinnati is averaging 15.3 points in its last three games. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has tailed off. It's been five games since he's had multiple touchdown throws in a game. A.J. Green, the Bengals' lone playmaker, has a shoulder injury and will be far less than 100 percent if he plays. The Bengals' passing attack suffers greatly if Green can't play, or is severely restricted.

The Cardinals aren't going to put up many points either with inaccurate John Skelton as their quarterback. Skelton is kind of a poor man's Tim Tebow in that he's not pretty with a quarterback rating of under 70 and a six-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he does the job as Arizona is 5-1 when he's played.

The weather is expected to be fine with a minimal amount of wind, but I see both teams playing very conservative in this high-stakes matchup.

I also see both defenses playing better than they have.

The Jets know the Giants can rush the passer well, but rank 22nd versus the run. Rex Ryan's offensive approach will be more conservative than ever. He'll look to feature Shonn Greene and keep Mark Sanchez out of harm's way.

The Giants' secondary has proven vulnerable. Sanchez doesn't have the arm, though, to take advantage especially in a cold December outdoor game.

The Jets' defense is due to step up. I see the Giants running Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs more than usual. All of this running, of course, eats clock.

Kill spot for Baltimore off an embarrassing loss to San Diego and with designs of not only winning the AFC North, but earning home-field advantage in the playoffs.

The Ravens have never lost in seven meetings against the Browns under John Harbaugh, covering six of the seven. Baltimore is 7-0 at home this season. The Ravens are 4-2-1 ATS at home with victories and covers against the Steelers, Jets, Texans and 49ers - all teams far superior to Cleveland.

The Browns have failed to cover seven of the past nine times they've gone against foes with a winning mark. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight AFC North games and 3-8 ATS as an underdog.

Baltimore is at its best when it runs Ray Rice a lot. That's what the Ravens did when the teams met in Week 13. Baltimore ran for 290 yards with Rice picking up 204 yards on the ground in a methodical 24-10 victory. The Ravens held the Browns to 59 yards rushing on 17 carries.

The Ravens are much more intimidating at home, especially with Ray Lewis back in the lineup. They should steamroll the Browns again. The Browns' run defense is worn down. In their last eight games, the Browns are giving up an average of five yards per carry.

Cleveland has little offense ranking 29th in total yards at 294.8 and 30th in scoring at 13.9 points per game. Career backup Seneca Wallace figures to start at quarterback for Cleveland. I'm not a Colt McCoy fan, but Wallace isn't any better.

There's a huge class difference between these two teams. The question is can the Texans cover this road spread with a third-string rookie quarterback and how motivated will the Colts be?

We know motivation for Houston isn't going to be a problem after the Texans were embarrassed at home by Carolina this past Sunday. The Texans can still finish 12-4 and earn a first-round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs.

The Texans caught a break with Baltimore and Pittsburgh also losing. Gary Kubiak is confident enough in his team's talent level that he's holding out his best wide receiver, Andre Johnson.

Johnson has a hamstring injury. If this were a playoff game Johnson would likely be playing. But Kubiak knows his team can whip Indianapolis without Johnson.

That should tell you something about this pointspread - it's too small thus giving excellent value to the favorite.

The Colts lack Houston's incentive. They are just playing the string out and are actually in a letdown spot after finally achieving their first victory. That takes the pressure off them.

It's actually better for the long-term future of the franchise if the Colts lose and thus don't jeopardize their chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick and getting Andrew Luck.

The oddsmaker has misread this matchup by hanging such a small line. It should be more than a touchdown. The record shows that Indianapolis has covered its last three games. But that's misleading. The Colts trailed the Patriots, 31-10, before getting a backdoor cover with two meaningless touchdowns during the final 2:12.

The Colts scored a meaningless touchdown on the final play against Baltimore to get another backdoor cover in a 24-10 loss as a 16 1/2-point underdog. Then this past Sunday the Colts had a plus two turnover advantage, including returning an interception off Matt Hasselbeck for a touchdown in their win against Tennessee. If you discount an 80-yard touchdown run by Donald Brown on a broken play, the Colts managed just nine first downs and 207 yards of offense against the sliding Titans.

Houston had its seven-game win streak and 6-0-1 ATS mark snapped this past Sunday against Carolina. The Texans outgained the Panthers, but were done in by a minus three turnover ratio.

The Texans rank in the top five in the major defensive categories. They will have no trouble containing a punchless Indy offense that ranks second to last in total yards and averages just 15.1 points per game. Houston is familiar with Dan Orlovsky, who was a backup quarterback for the Texans the previous two seasons. Orlovsky is 1-9 as an NFL starter.

The Colts already have lost at home to far inferior teams than Houston. The Colts lost by eight to Cleveland, by four to Kansas City, by 14 to Jacksonville and by eight to Carolina.

The Texans crushed the Colts, 34-7, opening week. Houston did have Matt Schuab in that victory, but was missing its best player, running back Arian Foster.

The Colts defense was fresh back then. Now it's worn down from injuries and being on the field way too long. Most star running backs have tired legs at this late stage of the season. But Foster is fresher than most having missed most of the first three games because of a hamstring injury.

Foster and Ben Tate, who rushed for 116 yards in the first meeting against the Colts, are the keys. The Texans will ride these two excellent backs, which will take the pressure of T.J. Yates and allow him to successfully play-action and pick his spots.

Houston ranks second in rushing averaging more than 151 yards per game and is first in average time of possession. The Texans will methodically wear down an already worn down and unmotivated Colts team.

I'm not sold on the 49ers being an elite team like the Steelers.

But the timing and situation are right for the 49ers to cover this small number.

Baltimore losing to San Diego last night takes the pressure off Pittsburgh. While Green Bay falling to Kansas City gives San Francisco a glimmer of hope that it can finish with the best record in the NFC.

The 49ers are home with more to prove than the Steelers. San Francisco also is the healthier team even though I'd be surprised if star inside linebacker Patrick Willis is able to play.

But while the 49ers are likely to be without their best tackler, the Steelers are missing far more key players. Out for Pittsburgh is star center Maurkice Pouncey, suspended Pro Bowl linebacker James Harrison and Emmanuel Sanders, their third-best wide receiver.

In addition to these players being out, sack-leader LaMarr Woodley is hobbled as is Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to start. Pouncey's absence means a disjointed offensive line. That's not good for Roethlisberger, who might be lifted at any time. Roethlisberger's backup is washed-up Charlie Batch.

The 49ers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last 35 games. The Steelers are going to need to pass to beat them, which is made far more difficult by Roethlisberger being less than 100 percent and Pouncey being out.

San Francisco also holds a special teams edge with dangerous Ted Ginn returning kicks and punts and kicker David Akers having a magnificent season.

The marketplace has been all over the Patriots so far. I agree with the steam.

Denver's defense is much improved, but it has faced only one good quarterback during the past six weeks and that was Philip Rivers, who is having a down year.

The only two other outstanding quarterbacks the Broncos have faced were Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers and Detroit put up 45 points and Green Bay scored 49 points on Denver.

Only once during their last five games have the Broncos even broken the 17-point barrier. Denver is beaten-up in the secondary. Tom Brady should have a field day against the Broncos' depleted secondary.

I don't see Tim Tebow being able to trade points with Brady. The Patriots are last in pass defense, but Tebow lacks the accuracy and downfield touch to burn New England.

If there's a defensive guru who can effectively defend Tebow for all four quarters it's Bill Belichick.

The Patriots lost the last time they visited Denver two years ago. Belichick will have his team fired-up for this matchup, which has become a marquee game. The Patriots have covered in eight of their last 11 road games.

The Broncos can't hold New England to less than three touchdowns, which has been the key for them in building a six-game winning streak. The explosive Patriots are No. 2 in total yards at 424.7 and No. 3 in scoring at 30.5 points per game.

New England is hitting its stride offensively averaging 34.8 points in its last five games. Denver's defense isn't nearly good enough to keep Brady in check. Tebow's a great story, but he doesn't have nearly the passing skills to take advantage of New England's patchwork secondary, or overcome Belichick's defensive acumen.

Weather sometimes can be a negative factor in December games. But that won't be the case here in the desert with temperatures in the high 50s, no wind and just a slight chance of rain.

Now the question is can these two teams produce enough points to get over this low total?

The answer is yes. The Cardinals can take advantage of Cleveland's 31st-ranked run defense that is worn down and vulnerable to a bruising inside runner such as Beanie Wells. The last time Wells went up against such a bad rush defense he ran for 228 yards against St. Louis three weeks ago.

I'm fine no matter who the Cardinals' starting quarterback is. They are 4-1 with John Skelton as their quarterback. He's off his finest performance going 19-for-28 for 282 yards and three touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 106.5 in an upset last week of San Francisco.

The Cardinals have gone over 18 of the last 26 times in December.

Cleveland is expected to start backup Seneca Wallace at quarterback instead of Colt McCoy, who has a concussion. I like Wallace better because he's more mobile and has a stronger arm.

Arizona's defense has improved, but the Cardinals defense still is far from an elite unit. The Browns have had extra time to prepare Wallace and game-plan having last played on Thursday.

Both teams also have dangerous kick and punt return specialists.

The Giants aren't strong enough defensively to be laying this big of a number to a division foe.

New York has given up an average of 40.3 points during its last three games. The Giants rank 30th in total defense and 29th in passing defense. Both their secondary and defensive line has key players injured.

Rex Grossman threw for 305 yards and had two touchdowns with no interceptions when the Redskins beat the Giants, 28-14, opening week.

Roy Helu has stepped up to rush for 100 yards in each of the last three weeks. Helu's excellent running takes the pressure off Grossman, who still has a dangerous deep threat in Santana Moss.

The Redskins have covered five of their last six NFC East games. The Giants are 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. New York also is 1-11 ATS when hosting an opponent with a losing road mark.

The Giants often play up or down to the level of competition. In the last two weeks, the Giants nearly dealt the Packers their first loss and then pulled out a dramatic victory this past Sunday night on the road against Dallas. Up next for the Giants is an in-state grudge match against the Jets.

The Redskins are loose with nothing to lose. They host Minnesota next week. So Washington's full focus should be on this matchup against a long-time hated rival.

The Saints were flat last week, but managed to escape with a road win against Tennessee. New Orleans has now won and covered five in a row.

The Saints have struggled on the road, but they are in a natural dome setting on carpet facing a decimated secondary. New Orleans is averaging 35.7 points in eight dome games this year.

Drew Brees has a 19-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last seven games accounting for 20 touchdowns during this span. Brees has passed for 300 yards in 10 of 13 games and should have no problem putting up huge numbers against a Minnesota secondary minus its two top cornerbacks - Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook - and top cover safety Husan Abdullah.

The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up even with Adrian Peterson back in the lineup. Peterson says he's about 85 percent after missing the last three games with an ankle injury.

Rookie Christian Ponder is struggling and has limited mobility with a hip injury. The Saints are going to be aggressively blitzing the now immobile Ponder.

The Vikings could turn to Joe Webb, who is very mobile but not an accurate passer.

The Vikings have played hard the last two weeks losing at home to Denver by three points when they blew a late lead and nearly upsetting the Lions on the road this past Sunday after trailing 31-14 midway through the third quarter.

I don't see the Vikings having enough in the tank physically and mentally to stay with a red-hot Brees, who will find the pickings easy against such a beat-up secondary and playing on a fast indoor track.

Buffalo did it again. Failed to make the playoffs for the 12th straight season.

But the Bills won't lack for motivation in this matchup. There's enough of a situational edge and injury factor to back Buffalo.

Miami had been playing well, but fell 26-10 at home to Philadelphia last Sunday. Now the Dolphins, in the midst of their lost season, have to travel to upstate New York to face a revenge-seeking division opponent with a new head coach.

This will be Miami's first cold weather game. Temperatures are expected to be in the 20s with a chance of snow and 8-10 mph winds.

The Dolphins stuck it to the Bills, 35-8, in Week 11. Buffalo hasn't won since. Todd Bowles will be coaching his first NFL game having replaced Tony Sparano. Bowles is unknown, but this is a difficult spot to step into since the Dolphins obviously want a bigger name to be their head coach. So the players may consciously, or unconsciously, let up with Bowles as the coach especially in weather elements foreign to them.

Sparano wasn't a sharp coach, but the Dolphins could usually be counted on to give a full effort under him. Buffalo's Chan Gailey has one of the better offensive minds of the head coaches.

Gailey has kept the Bills playing hard despite losing close to a dozen key players to injuries. This week, though, it's the Dolphins who have two important injuries.

Quarterback Matt Moore probably will start despite suffering a neck injury last week. He has limited talent and the injury could affect his play. There's a chance Miami could use J.P. Losman later on even if Moore starts. Losman was a bust with the Bills. Buffalo knows Losman and can take full advantage of his many holes. If Losman does get into the game, the Dolphins are in big trouble.

The Bills are last in sacks, but the Dolphins are unlikely to have star left tackle Jake Long due to a back injury. The Dolphins have allowed 44 sacks, which is the second-highest amount in the league behind only St. Louis.

Even the Bills will be able to get to Miami's weakened offensive line. Miami has been playing better defense, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is due for a good performance and he's home. He also gets back veteran left tackle Demetrius Bell, who had missed the last eight weeks with a shoulder injury, to protect his blind side.

Sure the Texans are still alive for best record in the AFC, but their intensity level has to be down after clinching their first division title and playoff berth in dramatic style last week. They edged the Bengals on the final play from scrimmage.

It's going to be difficult for the Texans to cover a touchdown spread with a third-string rookie quarterback without a strong effort against a feisty underdog.

Cam Newton makes Carolina dangerous. The Panthers have had the lead in every one of their games except one. They are a respectable 3-4 in their last seven games.

Newton is a monster accounting for 28 touchdowns. He's averaging 5.2 yards per rush, same as DeAngelo Williams. A rejuvenated Steve Smith is second in the league in receiving yards. He's the best wideout on the field with Andre Johnson unlikely to play after straining his hamstring.

The Panthers catch a break, too, in that Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips won't be coaching following a surgical procedure. He's this year's defensive coordinator of the year. Phillips called the defensive plays for the greatly-improved Houston defense.

The Panthers have covered 15 of their last 21 games in December.

Banged-up, demoralized and leaderless, Tampa Bay is a dead team.

The Cowboys are off a tough home loss and need a big victory in their quest to capture the NFC East Division.

The talent gap between these two teams - especially considering the Buccaneers' banged-up defense - is much wider than a touchdown. The combination of a huge talent edge and motivation is more than enough for the Cowboys to romp.

The Buccaneers are surrendering an average of 32.5 points in their last nine games. Their run defense has absolutely fallen apart since star tackle Gerald McCoy was lost for the season with a bicep injury. In the seven games McCoy has missed the Buccaneers have allowed 956 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on the ground.

The Cowboys certainly have the firepower to exploit such defensive shortcomings ranking in the top 10 in points, total yards and passing. Felix Jones is more than a capable replacement for DeMarco Murray, who was behind Jones in the depth chart until Jones was hurt earlier in the season.

It's not just the Buccaneers' defense either that has fallen off. Josh Freeman has had a dramatic regression. He's turned the ball over 13 times in the last five games.

Dallas is in a foul mood after losing at the end to the Giants this past Sunday night. Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has taken justifiable heat for his conservative coaching. He and his Cowboys will be taking their frustrations out on the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay has lost seven in a row and eight of its last 10. The Bucs last won a game in mid-October. They've only covered one of their last seven games and that was a nine-point loss to Green Bay on the road. The Buccaneers have been horrible at Raymond James Stadium going 4-13-1 ATS, including 2-4 ATS this season.

The Buccaneers are a young team with a young coach and they have bad chemistry. Raheem Morris doesn't have the experience nor the acumen to turn the Bucs' lost season around. The Buccaneers are the perfect team to fade right now when backing a superior team with an explosive offense that has far more motivation.

Atlanta is 24-4 straight-up at home with Matt Ryan under center. There's little doubt the Falcons are going to win this game, the key obviously is can they cover a double-digit pointspread?

The answer is yes.

Jacksonville averages 14.8 points per game. The Jaguars rank last in total offense and passing offense. Their only good offensive player is running back Maurice Jones-Drew and Atlanta's defensive strength is its run defense.

Blaine Gabbert doesn't have the pocket presence or accuracy to hurt the Falcons, even though they will be keying on Jones-Drew and have injuries in their secondary.

Statistically, the Jaguars appear impressive on defense ranking fourth in fewest yards allowed and seventh in fewest points given up. But that defense has been hit hard by injuries during the past few weeks losing their best cover defensive backs and run-stuffing linemen. The Jaguars lack the depth to make up for these injuries.

Jacksonville is ripe to be plucked. This hasn't happened in four of the Jaguars' last five games because the quarterbacks they faced in those four games were third-string rookie T.J. Yates, who was making his first appearance, Curtis Painter and the Colts, Colt McCoy and the Browns and banged-up Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers.

Philip Rivers was the only big-time quarterback the Jaguars faced during this span and he lit them up for 38 points at Jacksonville.

Ryan plays much better inside a dome at home. He has explosive weapons, including a now healthy Julio Jones. The Falcons came out flat last week and then stormed back to beat Carolina on the road. They won't make that mistake of starting slow here. Atlanta is 16-5-1 ATS versus losing teams.

Since Week 1, Jacksonville is 3-9 straight-up and 4-7-1 ATS. The Jaguars got their much needed win last week against Tampa Bay, scoring more than 20 points for the first time this year.

This is a kill spot for the Falcons and they will apply the hammer.

I can't see the Rams being competitive in this game. They have no business being on the national stage. A blowout loss might even be good for the Rams because then their ownership might be embarrassed enough to do more for the sinking franchise.

The Rams are decimated both on the offensive line and secondary. St. Louis has lost a staggering 10 defensive backs and allowed 39 sacks.

The Rams would be foolish to risk Sam Bradford, who isn't 100 percent with an ankle injury.

Backup A.J. Feeley is out so the Rams probably are going to be reduced to using a street free agent at quarterback. Not good.

They can't rely on Steven Jackson either. He's never rushed for 100 yards in 14 meetings against Seattle and has looked sluggish as the long year wears him down. The Seahawks' strength is their run defense and huge home-field advantage.

The Seahawks are playing well. They are on a 7-2-1 ATS streak. Marshawn Lynch is running as well as any back.

The Seahawks are well-rested. This is their third consecutive home game. They've had extra preparation time, too, from having played last Thursday when they beat the Eagles in impressive fashion.

Pete Carroll isn't adverse to running up a score. He would do it here, too, on national television.

Seattle has owned the Rams winning 12 of the past 13 meetings, going 10-3 ATS.

Yes, the Giants have lost four in a row. But look at who they have played: 49ers, Eagles, Saints and Packers.

The Giants beat the Patriots in New England five weeks ago and should have defeated Green Bay this past Sunday.

Dallas has played an easier schedule having faced the Redskins, Bills, Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals.

The Giants have the offense to pile up points on Dallas and the pass rushers to bother Tony Romo. Eli Manning is having his finest season. The Giants are dangerous when healthy and they got two key players back last week in running back Ahmad Bradshaw and linebacker Michael Boley.

This is the Giants' season. They can't afford a loss here. New York The Giants have defeated Dallas the past two seasons on the road. They are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games versus the Cowboys.

Dallas is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Going back to the past 16 times they've been chalk, the Cowboys are a miserable 3-12-1 ATS. They also are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games played in December.

The Giants are 23-9 when taking points.

The Chargers are healthy on offense. That makes them dangerous against bad defenses such as Buffalo, especially when playing in warm weather.

Philip Rivers has his three main receiving targets healthy for one of the rare times this season with Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd. The Chargers' offensive line also has gotten back some of their walking wounded with the return of starting guards Louis Vasquez and Tyronne Green.

The Chargers did not give up a sack this past Monday in destroying Jacksonville on the road, 38-14. The Jaguars don't rush the passer very well and their secondary is beat-up.

This sounds very much like the Bills, who also lack a pass rush and have lost several key defenders including cornerback Terrence McGee and possibly safety George Wilson. Given time, Rivers can pick apart the best of defenses. The Bills' defense gives up 25.3 points per game.

San Diego's defense is down from past years. The Chargers have surrendered at least 20 points to all but two opponents. Buffalo's offense has tallied off, but still has big-play capability and Chan Gailey has a good offensive mind.

The Bills are 6-0-1 to the over in their last seven road games and 9-1-1 to the over after not covering the week before.

The Raiders lack the offense, consistency and discipline to keep this matchup close at Lambeau Field.

Travel could be getting to Oakland as this is its second long trip in two weeks and fourth road game in five weeks.

Playing in Green Bay in December is never fun either especially for a California team.

The Raiders have a sloppy passing attack and their most explosive skill position players are all out again.

On defense, the Raiders still blown way too many coverages, which is deadly against the league's most explosive team.

Green Bay is averaging 39 points at home. The Raiders can't keep close to that.

This is a dangerous flat spot for the Saints. Following their bye, the Saints destroyed the Giants at home on a Monday night and then took care of the Lions also at home this past Sunday night.

But now the Saints have to travel for the first time in four weeks and play on grass for the first time since mid-October when they lost at Tampa Bay.

New Orleans ranks 27th in total defense and its offense isn't nearly as explosive away from their home dome, especially on a grass field. Drew Brees' completion percentage drops from 68 to 63 on the road and his passing yardage falls from 341 to 290.

In the Louisiana Superdome, the Saints have averaged 39.8 points in six home contests. In their last five road games, however, the Saints are averaging 23.4 points during regulation. New Orleans has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road contests.

The Titans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings against NFC competition. The Titans already have covered against the three other NFC South Division teams this year, beating Carolina and Tampa Bay straight-up by a combined 33 points.

Tennessee's defense doesn't get much fanfare, but the Titans are allowing just 19.1 points per game, which is sixth-best in the NFL. The Titans are respectable versus the pass and can play ball control with a ground attack that is picking up steam.

Chris Johnson was the best running back in football two years ago. After a very slow start, caused in large part by a protracted holdout, he has come on strong rushing for 343 yards the past two weeks.

If the Titans pull the upset, they have a real shot at making the playoffs. It's something they are well aware of. The spot and opponent match up well for the underdog to get the money if not win the game outright.

In a battle of two strong defensive teams, I'll back the Bengals, who have the better quarterback and are at home. The pointspread at a field goal or less, is enough to back them.

I like T.J. Yates. But he's the Texans' third-string quarterback and won't have his security blanket and top receiver Andre Johnson. I much prefer the Bengals' good-looking rookie Andy Dalton and his stellar group of young wideouts headed by A.J. Green.

The Texans have won six in a row to build up a two-game lead in the AFC South. The Bengals, on the other hand, can't afford a loss as they try to earn a wild-card spot.

Cincinnati has played twice against Pittsburgh and once against Baltimore in its last four games. Houston is much improved defensively, but its defense isn't as physical as those two opponents.

The Texans are vulnerable in the secondary. They haven't faced a quarterback as good as Dalton during their last three road games having played the Jaguars, Buccaneers and Titans. I like the matchup of Green and Jerome Simpson against Houston cornerbacks Jason Allen and Kareem Jackson.

Two beat-up secondaries playing inside a fast track dome spells lots of points.

That's the scenario in this matchup.

Tim Tebow passed for 200 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings on the road last week inside a dome. It's scary to think what Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and a real passing attack can do against Minnesota.

The Vikings can't defend the pass anymore minus their two best cornerbacks and top cover safety. Injuries have reduced the Vikings' secondary to second- and third-stringers at three of the four defensive backfield positions. In their last seven games, the Vikings have surrendered 18 touchdown passes while coming up with no interceptions.

I expect Christian Ponder to start for Minnesota. It's a bonus if Adrian Peterson plays. But I'm fine with this total over if neither plays.

Joe Webb would be the Vikings' quarterback if Ponder can't play. He's very athletic and has the weapons to put up points against a Lions defense missing their best front-seven player in suspended tackle Ndamukong Suh and best defensive back, injured safety Louis Delmas.

The Falcons beat the Panthers, 31-17, in Week 6 and I see nothing changing in this matchup.

Carolina is more beat-up on defense. Besides having lost their best linebackers, the Panthers also are down run-stuffing defensive tackles Sione Fua and Terrell McClain, both of whom went down last week.

This makes the Panthers highly vulnerable to the rumbling of Michael Turner, who has ran for at least 100 yards in five of his last six games against the Panthers. He gashed the Panthers for 139 yards rushing and two touchdowns in the team's first meeting this season.

Matt Ryan should perform better with the emphasis on Turner, especially with rookie Julio Jones healthy and teaming up with Roddy White.

The Falcons intercepted Cam Newton three times in the first meeting and held him without a touchdown throw. The Faclons rank No. 3 in the NFL in run defense. They've allowed only one 100-yard rusher in the last 15 games.

This is an off-surface for the Falcons, but they've covered 11 of their last 16 road games.