Denver has had 10 days to stew about suffering its first home loss in 14 tries after falling to San Diego.




Peyton Manning is chomping at the bit to take his frustrations out on Houston, which plays far worse than its statistics indicate.




The Texans are a rudderless, dispirited bunch who can't wait for the season to end. They have dropped 12 in a row. Their 3-11 ATS mark is the worst spread mark in the NFL.




The Texans are down to their third-string tailback in a run-heavy offense and may be missing their two top tight ends, too.




Back at quarterback by unpopular demand is washed-up Matt Schaub, who the few fans who come to the game will be pulling against. The Texans lack a passing game to not only keep up with Manning but to have any backdoor capability.

The line is inflated because the Chiefs have been piling up points and Indy has been struggling usually playing to the level of the competition.




These teams, though, are very close. They very well could meet in the first-round of the playoffs. So a conservative, vanilla game plan from both teams might happen with neither wanting to tip their hand knowing they could be meeting again in just two weeks. This is a plus for the underdog.




The Chiefs have built up an impressive 11-3 record by beating bad teams and backup quarterbacks. Their only win against an above .500 team was against Philadelphia in Week 3.




Kansas City has been outgained by 336 yards on the season and is allowing an average of 29.5 points a game during the last four weeks.




The Chiefs' pass rush is down with Justin Houston, who doesn't appear ready to rejoin the lineup this week.

If there is one area Cleveland has been good at lately it's going over the total. The over has cashed in eight of Cleveland's last 10 games.




If both teams reach 20 points, it can be safely assumed this is going over the total. The Browns have reached at least 20 points in all but one of their past six games.




The Jets are better offensively at home, especially their erratic rookie quarterback Geno Smith. In five of their last seven home games, the Jets have averaged 27.6 points.




Cleveland's defense is wearing down and could be missing star cornerback Joe Haden again.




The Jets are strong against the run, weak against the pass. The Browns have no rushing attack so they are likely to pass a lot, especially to Josh Gordon, who leads the NFL in receiving despite being suspended the first two games of the season. Gordon is averaging a mind-boggling 168 receiving yards in his last five games and has scored at least one touchdown in each of those games. He's in line to have another big game against the Jets' porous secondary.

Miami is 3-0 this month, used to playing in cold weather now and needs this game to close in on a playoff berth. A win against the Bills and a victory next week against the Jets and the Dolphins are in.




The Dolphins have a superior talent base to Buffalo with victories against three division leaders - Cincinnati, Indianapolis and New England.




Ryan Tannehill has shown excellent improvement. Only eight quarterbacks have thrown for more touchdowns. Buffalo rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel, on the other hand, is showing more regression than improvement. Buffalo ranks 29th in passing.




The Dolphins have a balanced attack and catch a nice break if Buffalo's underrated defensive tackle Marcell Dareus can't play.




The Bills are 0-8 ATS the past eight times following a victory.

Detroit averages better than 32 points at home. The Ravens' defense isn't nearly as good as last season and it has no intimidation factor on the road.



Reggie Bush is expected back in Detroit's lineup. If Detroit can avoid turnovers - which it should be able to do - it should put up a lot of points.



Baltimore's tackling was atrocious last week against a much inferior Vikings offense. The Ravens have only five sacks in their last four games, none during their past two.



The Ravens have to be careful about blitzing knowing they can be burned big time by Bush and Calvin Johnson.



I see Baltimore getting its share of points, too. Joe Flacco has a history of playing well down the stretch and he came up big last week. The Ravens' offense gets a big boost with star tight end Dennis Pitta back. Pitta's presence opens up things for deep threat Torrey Smith.



The Lions entered this week ranked 25th in pass defense surrendering more than 255 yards per game through the air. Detroit's defensive line is better stopping the run than getting to the quarterback.



Both teams are excellent in the return game, too. Jacoby Jones is one of the best returners in the game. Hopefully, Jim Schwartz won't get in his way by going on the field like Mike Tomlin did. Baltimore ranks No. 1 in punt return yardage and is sixth in kickoff returns.



Jeremy Ross has emerged as dangerous returner for Detroit averaging 19.9 yards on punt returns and 33.5 yards per kickoff return.



Both kickers are aided by kicking in a dome. Baltimore's Justin Tucker has made 27 straight field goals, many in tough outdoor conditions.

This is the Steelers' Super Bowl. Pittsburgh will be going all out against its hated division rival.



The Bengals are a much different team on the road, averaging 19.3 points per game. That's 14 points less than what they average at home.



Cincinnati has a losing road record. The Bengals only have one away win by more than a field goal.



Pittsburgh has won and covered five of the last seven in the series. A key to Pittsburgh's success is its defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, being able to successfully control Andy Dalton, who is completing just 52.3 percent in five career games against Pittsburgh with a 5.76 YPA and a 5-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.



Ben Roethlisberger is having a big season for Pittsburgh and has been hot his last four games with a high QB rating and a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Quietly the Cardinals have become one of the better teams in the NFL. Since opening week, their only losses have been to the Saints, 49ers and Eagles on the road and against the Seahawks. They are 7-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.



The Titans, on the other hand, have only beaten the Raiders and Rams since opening 3-0. They are not going to make the playoffs and morale is suffering. Tennessee is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 December games, also.



Ryan Fitzpatrick has once again proved too turnover prone and is going against an elite defense. The Cardinals have 38 sacks and a stout run defense allowing only five rushing touchdowns.



Carson Palmer finally has bought into offensive guru Bruce Arians' system and the result is Arizona has produced 27 or more points in five of its last six games.



The Cardinals are the superior team and have motivation.

Unlike some games, weather isn't going to impact in this matchup.



The Cardinals have gotten hot offensively averaging 28.6 during their last six games. Carson Palmer has gotten comfortable in Bruce Arians' offense throwing for more than 1,200 yards during the last four games with an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.



Larry Fitzgerald is a superstar wide receiver and Michael Floyd is enjoying a breakout season.



The Titans also have two breakout wide receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. The Cardinals' secondary took a big hit losing star safety Tyrann Mathieu.



The over has cashed in Tennessee's last five home games.

The Dolphins opened as a fashionable underdog and have drawn all the early money knocking the line into the pick range.



But this doesn't mean the Dolphins are the right side here - because they are not.



The Dolphins are a very mediocre team. They lack star power at the skill positions and their maligned offensive line with all its bad karma has surrendered a league-high 48 sacks.



New England has proven it can win without star tight end Rob Gronkowski going 5-1 this season without him. Tom Brady still has plenty of weapons without Gronkowski. New England averages 26.8 points per game. Miami has exceeded 26 points in a game only twice.



The Patriots have owned Miami, too, winning the past seven meetings. The Patriots face the Ravens in Baltimore next week. So they need to win this matchup.

I'll take a full touchdown with Washington. Who are the Falcons to lay these kinds of points?

Atlanta has been the biggest disappointment in the NFC this season. The Falcons rank 30th in run defense and start five rookies on defense.

The Redskins made the right choice in benching RGIII. Kirk Cousins has starter potential and can provide a needed a spark. With Alfred Morris the Redskins' No. 2 ranked rushing attack can play ball control and move the ball on Atlanta's weak rush unit.

The Redskins have several excellent pass rushers. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked 11 times during the past two games.

I like Jim Harbaugh in same-season revenge, especially at home where the 49ers are 19-8-1 ATS in their past 28 home contests. San Francisco has beaten the Seahawks the past four times at home.


The Seahawks dealt the 49ers a 29-3 loss in Week 2. Now it's the 49ers turn to win. Seattle is far less intimidating on the road.


Colin Kaepernick is playing better now that he has his full complement of wide receivers with Michael Crabtree back.


The Seahawks' secondary is down Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond.

Baltimore plays much better at home going 7-1 ATS in its last eight. This is a key game, too, for the Ravens since they are in the playoff hunt and their closing three games are against much tougher opponents - Lions, Patriots and Bengals.



The Vikings are off two tough division games. They tied the Packers on the road two weeks ago in overtime and then edged the Bears in overtime at home. The Ravens also are off a tough division game - but that was on Thanksgiving so they've had extra rest.



The Vikings' motivation won't be as high as the Ravens. The weather forecast is for rain and temperatures in the 30s. The Ravens are 7-1 at home since 2008 when the game-time temperature is 33 or below.



Minnesota is practically a one-man team with Adrian Peterson. The Ravens rank No. 6 in run defense. They've allowed an NFL-low two rushing touchdowns. Baltimore's pass rush is far more effective, too, with facing non-elite quarterbacks.



The Vikings have yet to win on the road this season. Baltimore is 5-1 at home where Joe Flacco has historically has played much better.



The defending world champion Ravens are much the better team with a vastly superior coach and they also draw a favorable situation.

Chip Kelly, Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy get all the attention, but the Eagles' defense quietly has improved holding their last eight foes to 21 points or less.



Detroit has outstanding skill position players. However, the Lions don't play as fast away from their dome setting and are turnover prone having lost the ball 17 times during the last 19 quarters.



Kelly has dialed back his up-tempo offense with Foles instead of Michael Vick. The Eagles need to run effectively, but no team has been tougher than Detroit recently in stopping the run. The Lions have held their last five opponents to under 40 yards on the ground. They haven't surrendered a rushing touchdown during the past 34 quarters.



Neither team has a reliable kicker and weather could factor. The forecast is for temperature in the 30s with a chance of ice pellets.

Sean Payton would like nothing better than to prove his Saints can win a big outdoor road game. They stand an excellent chance tonight against Seattle.


New Orleans' defense is greatly improved and the Saints have a much stronger passing attack. Seattle is a super home team, but once again its home number is inflated. The Seahawks are 3-3 ATS in their last six games CenturyLink Field. The Saints are a take at plus 4 or more with a healthy Brees against any foe.


Drew Brees is 9-0 the past nine times on Monday night with a 123.6 passer rating. He has the weapons to successfully pass on a Seattle secondary missing injured Brandon Browner and suspended Walter Thurmond.


The weather forecast is for temperatures in the high 30s with little wind.


The Seahawks actually have a bigger game on deck when they take on the 49ers next week in a division showdown.

Both teams have key defensive injuries. The Chiefs aren't going to be able to get away with just rushing four players against Peyton Manning with Justin Houston out and Tamba Hali not 100 percent.


The Chiefs have only two sacks in their last four games. Their defense has regressed allowing 68 points and 918 yards. Manning has the weapons, including the return of Red Zone terror tight end Julius Thomas, to pick apart the breaking Chiefs defense.


I see Kansas City turning up its offense a notch to attack a soft Denver secondary that has multiple injuries, including the loss of star free safety Rahim Moore. The Chiefs showed they have the capability of putting up a lot of points on a vulnerable secondary putting up 38 points on San Diego last week with Alex Smith throwing for 294 yards and three touchdowns.


The Broncos have been an over machine going 12-2-1 to the over in their past 15 games.

Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams are a perfect 5-0 ATS when taking eight or more points. It's not a fluke. Fisher is a tremendous 'dog coach and has made the Rams a tougher, more physical team.


St. Louis is playing its best ball right now despite losing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. In their last two games, the Rams have defeated the Colts by 30 on the road and the Bears by 21. They should have defeated the Seahawks four games ago, losing, 14-9.


The Rams have achieved this by applying tremendous quarterback pressure, becoming a run-first team thereby taking the pressure off backup quarterback Kellen Clemens and watching Tavon Austin step up as a dangerous multi-threat.


The 49ers are on a short week following a road victory this past Monday against the Redskins. Prior to facing a Washington defense that gives up the second-most points in the NFL, Colin Kaepernick had passed for 165 yards or less in three straight games.

The oddsmakers have set this total too low. There are a number of under-the-radar factors that will prove this. I feel strongly enough about this to make this my Total of the Year.


First, the game is going to be played in Toronto. But weather shouldn't factor. It's at Rogers Centre where the roof will most certainly be closed. These two teams are used to a fast track and this will be a fast track.


The Bills have played in Toronto the past five years. They are trying to win that market where they become the home team for that Canadian region. So they want to put on an entertaining show.


E.J. Manuel is now three games from his knee surgery. The rust should be off. The Bills rank seventh in the NFL in rushing and Manuel gets back his two best wide receivers, Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods. Atlanta has surrendered 23 touchdown passes and allows for one of the highest passer ratings.


Multiple injuries have help do in Atlanta's defense, which lacked depth and size from the start. The Falcons rank 27th or lower in a number of key defensive categories, including total yards, rushing yards and points allowed giving up more than 28 per game.


This is the easiest defense the Bills have faced in 11 weeks. The last 10 defenses the Bills have seen have all been good-to-excellent - Jets twice, Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Panthers. The Falcons' defense is a huge drop down from these defenses.


The Falcons should be able to get their share of points in what shapes up as a shootout. Matt Ryan no longer can be called an elite quarterback, but he's still way above average. He has some of his weapons back, including Roddy White. The Falcons will benefit from this setting and having had extra prep time having last played a week ago from Thursday. The Bills allow near nearly 25 points per game.

Both teams are way down this season, but the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens still remain tough at home where they have covered all five of their games.



Baltimore has allowed only two legitimate touchdowns at home this season while giving up an average of 10.8 points per game.



The Steelers lack the necessary ground attack to keep the Ravens, particularly Terrell Suggs who has been a terror against Ben Roethlisbeger, from applying plenty of quarterback heat.



The Steelers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games.



Joe Flacco has a history of playing much better at home and he's coming off one of his best games of the season. Ray Rice should be more effective in this game, too, as the Steelers' No. 23 run defense will be minus injured 325-pound nose tackle Steve McLendon.


As far as playing any props for this game, I would look to go over on sacks for Baltimore, under on receiving yards for Steelers tight end Heath Miller and over on rushing/receiving yards for Ray Rice.


The Ravens rank first in sacks. The Steelers are passing a lot more than perceived and Terrell Suggs as always been a terror against Ben Roethlisberger.


Miller isn't the same since coming back from serious knee ligament surgery. He had only two catches for 17 yards in the team's first meeting this season. The Ravens are extremely tough against tight ends.


Rice should have one of his better games with the Steelers missing McLendon and he will see a lot of touches.

I'm surprised this line is under a touchdown. Yes, the 49ers have lost two in a row. Those two losses, though, were by a combined four points at New Orleans and against Carolina. Those two teams are a combined 16-5.


The Saints and Panthers also have tough defenses. The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the NFL giving up more than 31 points a game. This is a breakout game for Colin Kaepernick. He'll have a healthy Vernon Davis and Frank Gore, who has totaled 100 yards rushing and/or scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games.


While the Redskins have a bottom three defense, the 49ers entered Week 12 giving up the fourth-fewest points per game. Robert Griffin III is not close to being what he was last season and will be without his No. 2 and No. 3 leading receivers as tight end Jordan Reed and Leonard Hankerson are out.


San Francisco has covered 74 percent of its last 32 games on grass and is 11-4 ATS following a loss. Washington is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.

Regarding props, I would also look to play the 49ers over 26 1/2 points and to play on some of their players to have strong individual games.

The Redskins' defense has been dreadful from the start and it hasn't improved. The safeties are among the weakest in the NFL. The 49ers haven't put up strong offensive numbers in their previous two games because they've faced two strong defenses - Carolina and New Orleans.

Now the 49ers step way down in defensive class. Prior to their last two matchups, the 49ers had scored 31 or more points in five consecutive games.

The Colts own victories against the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. The Cardinals are not at that level where they could defeat those teams.



The Cardinals can't run the ball and have an inconsistent passing attack. Carson Palmer has more interceptions than touchdown passes. Last week was the first time this season he went a game without being picked off.



The Colts hold a huge quarterback edge with Andrew Luck.



Indianapolis is 21-9-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS when meeting an opponent above .500.

This is the first of three consecutive road games for the Titans. After this matchup are games against the Colts and Broncos. The Titans will be big 'dogs in those games. This is the game they need to win - and they know it.



The Raiders are off an upset win against the Texans. After each of their previous three victories this season the Raiders followed it with a loss.



Rookie Matt McGloin is the Raiders' 15th starting quarterback since 2005. He threw three touchdown passes against the Texans. I don't see him duplicating that success against the Titans, who have allowed just seven touchdown passes while intercepting eight passes.



Opponents also have film now on McGloin, who is not considered a major talent. He's not helped playing in back of one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.



Tennessee also is using a backup quarterback with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is playing well, though, completing 44 of 61 passes during the past two games for 486 yards and three touchdowns.



Chris Johnson gives Tennessee the best running back, too, in a matchup that should be decided in the trenches with a lot of running. The Titans hold the edge in the trenches also.

Fresh off their huge and satisfying Monday night home win against New England, the Panthers now have to travel on a short week to play the Dolphins.



Miami is in the playoff hunt and has a respectable defense. A lot has been made of Bullygate, but since Jonathan Martin left the team the Dolphins have gone 2-1.



The Panthers are in a letdown spot and could be missing star defensive Charles Johnson, who has 8 1/2 sacks. He has a sprained knee.



Carolina already has lost to the Bills and Cardinals on the road. The Panthers are vulnerable in this spot against a desperate Dolphins team.

The Jets come off their bye rested and brimming with confidence having been one of the few teams to keep New Orleans in check during a 26-20 victory.


The Jets have defeated Buffalo in seven of the past eight meetings, going 6-2 ATS. The Jets beat the Bills in Week 3 despite committing 20 penalties for 168 yards. New York held Buffalo quarterback E.J. Manuel to just 19-for-42 throwing.


New York has the No. 1 ranked rushing defense. Manuel is still rusty from having missed four games with a knee injury. Manuel will be without his two leading wide receivers, Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods. Both have been ruled out with injuries. In addition, C.J. Spiller isn't close to 100 percent bothered by an ankle sprain.

The Texans have out-yarded their opponents by more than 1,000 while ranking No. 1 in total defense and pass defense.

This road contest is too daunting of a challenge for the Raiders minus their top running back, Darren McFadden, and most likely their starting quarterback, Terrelle Pryor.

Rookie quarterback Matt McGloin is slated to make his first NFL start. McGloin has to go against their fierce defense behind one of the worst offensive lines and with below average skill position talent.

Case Keenum isn't making the bad mistakes Matt Schaub was. The frustrated Texans would like nothing more than to steamroll the Raiders for their sick coach and to regain their confidence.

There were 60 points scored when these two teams met opening week with the Eagles winning, 33-27. Neither defense has improved since then.


The Redskins rank second-to-last in points allowed giving up 31.9 per game. Philadelphia is second-to-last in yards allowed and in pass defense. Washington has gone over in six of its last eight road contests, while the over is 10-4-1 during the Eagles' past 15 home games.


Robert Griffin III was rusty in the first meeting. Griffin hasn't reached his rookie magic of a year ago, but he is coming on completing 80 of his last 128 throws (62.5 percent) for more than 1,000 yards. He shouldn't have any trouble passing against such a weak secondary especially with the Eagles forced to pay attention to Alfred Morris, who is the third-leading rusher in the NFL.


Nick Foles has proven he can do the job. He has accounted for 17 touchdowns without an interception. The last time he faced a secondary this week he threw seven touchdown passes against the Raiders. Foles also has an outstanding running back to keep the defense honest with LeSean McCoy, who is the leading rusher in the NFL.

It has been a terrible year for the Falcons, the worst by far of Mike Smith's six-year tenure. But the Buccaneers beating a disjointed Dolphins squad on Monday night doesn't erase the fact that Atlanta still is at least one level higher than Tampa Bay.



The Falcons have a lot of pride under Smith, having made the postseason under him four of the past five seasons. They are a much better organization than Tampa Bay with a far superior coach and quarterback.



Playing on grass hasn't hurt the Falcons in Tampa Bay as they've won and covered during their past four visits. The Falcons have been racked by injuries this year, but are starting to get back some of their key people, including wide receiver Roddy White and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon.



Before playing Miami with its inept offense, the Buccaneers had allowed 31, 31, 31 and 27 points in their previous four games. They do not generate much quarterback pressure, which is needed to rattle Ryan.



Ryan shredded the Buccaneers for three touchdowns and 273 yards passing when Atlanta beat the Bucs, 31-21, in Week 7.



The Buccaneers have been hit by injuries on their offensive line and now are without sparkplug running back Mike James, who had replaced injured Doug Martin. That leaves Tampa Bay with an immobile rookie quarterback and a running attack that is composed of castoffs.



Even with their victory against Miami, the Buccaneers are still 5-19 ATS as a home underdog. They are 1-13 straight-up when foes weren't resting their starters. They don't figure to be so motivated with the national spotlight moving away from them and having achieved their first win.

Granted, both of these teams have excellent defensive front sevens. The 49ers have a solid secondary, too.


But each team's offense is playing at a high level, too, and in today's NFL offense trumps defense making this total too low.


Sparked by a bruising ground game that has averaged 184 yards rushing in their last five games, San Francisco has scored 31 or more points during this span. The 49ers have gone over the total in 12 of their last 15 games.


Carolina, with Cam Newton playing his best ball, is averaging 31.2 points during its last four games. Newton has another weapon at his disposal, too, with Jonathan Stewart back. Stewart is Carolina's most talented running back.


It's hard to defend Newton and Colin Kaepernick because not only are they passing well, but they are the two best running quarterbacks in the league. Kaepernick has the mobility to escape Carolina's excellent pass rush and take advantage of the Panthers' vulnerable secondary that has been rocked by injuries and cornerback Chris Gamble's retirement.

Embarrassed and humiliated after giving up 55 points to New England last week, the Steelers will be fired-up for this matchup. Luckily, they draw a gutsy but bad Buffalo team.



The Bills need to win the turnover battle to win because their talent is so lacking. Buffalo gets back its starting quarterback, E.J. Manuel. But Manuel still is a rookie and figures to be rusty after being out the past four games following a knee injury.



Since Dick LeBeau took over as defensive coordinator in 2004, the Steelers are 16-2 when going against a rookie quarterback. Just four games ago, the Steelers beat the Jets and their rookie quarterback, Geno Smith, 19-6. Rookies have a hard time facing LeBeau's various zone blitzes.



Pittsburgh's defense is long in the tooth, but it's a prideful unit that had held up fairly well until being torched by Tom Brady. E.J. Manuel is no Tom Brady.



The Steelers' much maligned offensive line gets a lift with the return of right guard David DeCastro. That should help the ground attack while setting up Ben Roethlisberger for play action facing a Buffalo secondary that has allowed 20 touchdown passes, which was the most given up entering this Week 10.



Buffalo doesn't have a good track record either on the road. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, including 1-3 ATS this season.

The oddsmaker and marketplace have way overreacted to Aaron Rodgers not being available for this game.



Thrown in unexpectedly against the Bears this past Monday night, it was no surprise Seneca Wallace looked terrible. Wallace will be coached up this week and, for the first time, will get enough reps in practice to get the rust off.



The Packers still have a very solid offense without Rodgers with Eddie Lacy, emerging as one of the better running backs in the league, along with a deep group of wide receivers and an offensive line that will be fired-up for this game. Keep in mind, too, how bad Philadelphia's defense is. The Eagles rank last in total defense and last in pass defense.



The Eagles are going with their own backup quarterback, Nick Foles. Green Bay has greatly improved its run defense. The Packers have a deep defensive line group so they can stay fresh going against the Eagles' up-tempo offense. The Packers also could have back Clay Matthews, their best pass rusher.



Even with that loss to Chicago, Green Bay still has won 18 of its last 20 games at Lambeau Field going 15-5 ATS.



The Packers have the talent, drive and motivation to prove they can win without Rodgers. They certainly can accomplish that against a flawed Eagles team that has their own backup quarterback going.

The Redskins have the better coach, quarterback and motivation to beat the Vikings by more than a field goal. These three edges are magnified even more on a short week.


Robert Griffin III is running more each week as he tries to regain his superstar status of a year ago. Griffin, even at 80 percent, is far superior to Christian Ponder and Minnesota's other worthless quarterbacks. Ponder is without his security blanket, too, with tight end Kyle Rudolph out with a broken foot.


Griffin should put up big numbers against a decimated Vikings secondary than ranks 29th in pass defense.


The Redskins are highly motivated after holding off San Diego last week in overtime thanks to a goal line stand at the end of regulation. The Redskins know they're still alive in the weak NFC East.


The Vikings aren't so fortunate. They are hopelessly out of contention at 1-7 with road games looming the next two weeks against Seattle and Green Bay. Leslie Frazier is in over his head as coach of the Vikings. The Vikings face a fatigue factor, too, as this marks their third night game in 18 days.

The Packers have won 18 of their last 19 regular season home games. They are 15-4 ATS in these games. They've defeated Chicago six consecutive times.


Green Bay has a couple of important players out - Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb. But the Bears' injury situation is far worse.


The Bears are without Jay Cutler and their defense is minus star defensive tackle Henry Melton along with linebackers Lance Briggs and D.J. Williams. Star cornerback Charles Tillman has a sore knee and 33-year-old Julius Peppers has one sack. The Bears still can be opportunistic on defense, but much of their talent and leadership is gone from that side of the ball with Brian Urlacher retired and Lovie Smith let go.


Chicago's defense entered this week ranked 27th in yards and 29th in points allowed. Sparked by rookie running back Eddie Lacy, the balanced Green Bay offense has gained 449, 438, 357 and 464 yards in its last four games. The Packers entered the week averaging 30.3 points per game.


It's safe to assume Green Bay is going to get its share of points against a Chicago defense that no longer is any good. The Bears' offense isn't going to be able to keep up with 34-year-old backup Josh McCown, who has a career passer rating of 72.

The Ravens have owned the Browns winning the past 10 meetings, covering seven of them. Cleveland is averaging less than 11 points during the last eight games against the Ravens.


The Browns haven't broken 17 points in six of their eight games.


Baltimore's defense still is good and Cleveland's offense still is rotten. The Browns have no ground attack and their quarterback is 32-year-old journeyman Jason Campbell, who has a special knack for making everyone around him worse. Don't be fooled by Campbell's semi-decent performance last week against Kansas City. He is an immobile quarterback with a long windup, a sitting duck for Terrell Suggs. The Browns were so down on Campbell they actually went to Brandon Weeden first after Brian Hoyer went down.


Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are having down years for the Ravens. They have a history of playing better during the latter part of the season. Baltimore was idle last week. This is a crucial matchup for them. They can get back in the division race with a victory here and next week hosting AFC North leader Cincinnati.


The addition of Eugene Monroe and the subtraction of Bryant McKinnie has improved Baltimore's offensive line. Flacco has a cleaner pocket now and his receivers finally are healthy.


The Ravens are poised to make a move - starting with this game.

I don't consider the Chiefs, the league's lone unbeaten team, to be a serious Super Bowl threat. But the Chiefs are far superior to the Bills.


This gap may grow even wider because of Buffalo's injuries. Thad Lewis has sore ribs. Star running back C.J. Spiller missed last week's game with a sore ankle. Neither may play Sunday. That would spell disaster for the Bills.


So I'm getting on the Chiefs now in full anticipation of the line climbing.


The Chiefs are giving up 12.3 points per game, fewest in the NFL. They lead the NFL in sacks with 36. The Bills are surrendering 14 more points per game than Kansas City.


The Bills need to come up with turnovers to beat decent teams. They intercepted five passes to beat Baltimore at home by just three points. Alex Smith doesn't commit turnovers. The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 12.

This is the Cowboys' lone home game during a five-week span and they're in position to explode on the Vikings.


Tony Romo has a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last nine home starts. He's facing a down-in-the-dumps Vikings defense that ranks 29th in pass defense and 27th in sacks.


The Vikings also are going to be without three-fourths of their secondary as both of their safeties are out with injuries along with cornerback Chris Cook. Dallas' offensive line has given up the ninth fewest sacks, so Romo should have a clean pocket to light up Minnesota's vulnerable defensive backfield.


Minnesota should get its share of points, too. The Cowboys rank last in total defense and pass defense. They also are giving up 4.4 yards per carry. That's good news for Adrian Peterson.

After laying an egg on Monday night and being a laughing stock all week, the Vikings are going to come out with their "A" effort against their biggest rival.


The Packers have multiple injuries, are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and failed to cover in three of their last four visits to Minnesota.


The Vikings aren't nearly as bad as they looked against the Giants. Josh Freeman, mercifully, will not be behind center. The Vikings have the best running back in football, Adrian Peterson, to help out Christian Ponder, who also has a good receiving corps headed by former Packer Greg Jennings, who knows his former team well.


Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous quarterback, but his options are limited minus Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finely. Because of these missing players, the Packers will be running more than usual. On defense, they miss their best defender, Clay Matthews.


The Vikings have the superior special teams and will be highly motivated. This is going to be a close game.

The spot is right for the Lions to pound the Cowboys.


Dallas is off an impressive offense showing against Denver and division victories over the Giants and Eagles. The Cowboys are 5-15 ATS following a victory.


The Cowboys have key injuries. Their best running back DeMarco Murray didn't play last week and their best defensive player, DeMarcus Ware, is likely out again with a quad injury. The Cowboys lack a pass rush without Ware and Anthony Spencer, their second-best pass rusher who is out for the season.


The Lions have a top-flight defensive line that can shut down Dallas' ground attack, which is way below average minus Murray, and pressure Tony Romo, who can be turnover prone.


Matthew Stafford has a 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio when Calvin Johnson has been in the lineup. Johnson had a dominant performance last week against the Bengals. Johnson being in the lineup makes Reggie Bush far more dangerous because defenses can't key on Bush.

The Dolphins have lost three in a row. They have been outgained by 149 yards on the ground and 148 yards passing. It comes out to the opposition averaging close to 50 yards more than Miami per game.


Ryan Tannehill has been sacked more than any other quarterback. He has a sore throwing shoulder and doesn't catch a break as Patriots shutdown cornerback Aqib Talib is expected back this week.


The middle of the Patriots' defense has gotten softer with season-ending injuries to nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo, but the Dolphins lack the dynamic ground game to take advantage.


New England has won 33 of its last 36 regular season home games. The Patriots are 22-9-1 ATS in October. They have defeated Miami during the past six meetings.


The Patriots offense is going to start picking up with Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup and Danny Amendola expected to play, too. Gronkowski makes the Patriots far more effective in the red zone.

The Saints have had a slower pace this season. They also are coming off a bye, which could throw off the timing of Drew Brees, who is a rhythm quarterback.


Brees may not have his top target either as star tight end Jimmy Graham could sit out.


The Saints' defense is much improved this season. So is Buffalo's. The Bills have gotten healthier in their secondary, too.


Buffalo runs the ball more than any other team, which eats clock. The Bills may be without their star running back, C.J. Spiller. They will be looking to play a conservative ball-control game with backup quarterback Thad Lewis, who they know can't win a shootout against Brees.

The NFL likes for their teams to put on an entertaining show in London. The Steelers and Vikings did that in the other game played this season in London racking up a combined 61 points. Both teams put up their highest scoring totals of the season in that game.


The 49ers certainly will do their part. Their offense is clicking the best it has all season. The 49ers have scored at least 31 points in their last four games.


San Francisco has rushed 155 times for 698 yards during this span, an average of 4.5 yards a carry. Colin Kaepernick has accounted for six touchdowns without an interception during this time frame. There is a chance for bad weather, but that won't stop the 49ers' ground attack.


The Jaguars have the softest defense in the league ranking last in run defense allowing 153.3 yards per game and are at the bottom in scoring defense surrendering 31.7 points a game. Jacksonville has given up at 34 points in four of its last five games. What really makes this pathetic is nearly all of the Jaguars' opponents have let up in the second half because of big leads.


Jim Harbaugh is not a coach who lets up on the gas especially with the 49ers on a bye next week.


Chad Henne gives the Jaguars a downfield passing threat and he has two good wide receivers in Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. Henne will be throwing a lot here. Maurice Jones-Drew also has started to play better. The 49ers remain without their top pass rusher, suspended Aldon Smith.


In today's NFL world where rules and official's calls are skewed to favor the offense, this total is much lower than what it should be.

The over has cashed four of the last five times in this series and I see the trend continuing.


Carolina has scored at least 30 points in three of its last four games. Cam Newton is playing his finest ball completing 35-of-43 for 464 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions during the last two games. The Panthers have an underrated receiving corps with Steve Smith, tight end Greg Olsen and Brandon LaFell, who is playing his best ball.


Tampa Bay's defense has shown slippage giving up 31 points each to the Eagles and Falcons during its last two games.


Mike Glennon will be making his fourth start. He's improving with each start and has developed chemistry with Vincent Jackson, one of the 10 best wideouts in football. Jackson has hauled in 19 passes during the past two games for 242 yards and four touchdowns.


The Buccaneers won't have injured Doug Martin. I always thought Martin was overrated and his statistics this season prove that as he was averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and had scored only one touchdown. The Buccaneers should be less conservative playing at home and without the need to give Martin the ball 40 times on ineffective runs.


Carolina has an excellent defensive front seven, but injuries and Chris Gamble's retirement have rendered its secondary vulnerable.

The Vikings are giving up 31.6 points per game. The Giants are even worse, allowing 34.8 points a game.


Yet, the oddsmaker have set a rather low total considering how bad these defenses are.


Why? Good question. Both teams have some name pass rushers, but the results aren't there. The Giants have the fewest sacks in the NFL with five. The Vikings have the fourth-fewest with 10.


The Giants have held only one team to less than 31 points a game and that was the Bears, who scored 27. The Vikings have the best runner in the NFL, Adrian Peterson, and are starting Josh Freeman. He wore out his welcome in Tampa, but is better than Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel with a much stronger arm. Freeman isn't accurate, but he's the first quarterback the Vikings have used during the past couple of seasons who at least presents a downfield threat. Freeman's accuracy should go up with defenses stacking the line against Peterson.


The Giants have a dangerous passing attack with Eli Manning throwing to one of the best wide receiving trios in the NFL, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle.


The Vikings rank 30th in pass defense. They have allowed 13 touchdown passes in five games. Their best defensive back, safety Harrison Smith, is out.


The weather forecast is good with clear skies, temperatures in the 50s and hardly any wind.


This matchup shouldn't just go over the total - it should easily sail way over the total.

The Packers' defense has a lot of depth. It has looked very good despite missing Clay Matthews and Brad Jones. The secondary is shored up with the return of safety Morgan Burnett.


Green Bay's defense stopped Joe Flacco last week on the road. It should encounter little problems from Brandon Weeden, one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and a player the Browns have no confidence in. Weeden lacks pocket presence, makes poor decisions and fails to make big plays. He's only playing because Brian Hoyer got hurt.


Cleveland does have a very solid defense. The Packers haven't faced a cornerback as good as Joe Haden. This is Green Bay's first game minus their star slot receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers could be missing James Jones, too.


If Jones can't play the Packers will be starting Jarrett Boykin, who was their No.4 wideout, and Myles White, brought up this week from the practice squad, will be the team's No. 3 wide receiver, which Green Bay uses a lot.


The Packers are adjusting to the loss of Cobb by going more conservative with an increased emphasis on running the ball and using more tight ends instead of wide receivers. The loss of Cobb also hurts Green Bay's return game. He was their best special teams returner.


The Browns rank No. 1 defensively in yards per play. The Packers are not going to be explosive in this matchup, partly by design and in large part by Cleveland's underrated defense.


The Packers don't want to show too much here. They have a bigger game on deck next week at Minnesota. The Vikings are having their problems, but they will be fired up for that Monday night home game and the Packers know it.

Green Bay is far less potent minus Randall Cobb. The Packers don't have anyone who can match his speed and big-play ability from the slot.


Cobb's absence causes the Packers to readjust their offense where an already emphasized ground attack will get even more work and tight end Jermichael Finley becomes more wide receiver than tight end. It changes the offense from a big-strike one to more of a grind-out-the-yards type.


Defensively, the Packers have a cluster injury problem at linebacker. They are without their best pass rusher and defender Clay Matthews.


The Browns are perceived as a lower rung team because they dealt what is looking like a vastly overrated Trent Richardson. In truth, though, the Browns are much more of a 7-9 to 8-8 team. Their 3-3 record reflects that.


The Browns have a stout defense - ranked No. 1 in holding opponents to 4.4 yards per play - and a very good offensive line and stars at tight end with Jordan Cameron and wide receiver with Josh Gordon. All the Browns are missing is a decent quarterback. But because of that and wrong perceptions, the Browns are priced too low here.

The line is short here. Tennessee has been a tough out this season, but the Titans have played a murderous schedule, are not talented at the skill positions and the 49ers have recaptured their ground attack, which makes Colin Kaepernick more dangerous.


The Titans have a bye next week. It comes at a good time. The Titans have faced three top-five defenses during the past three weeks in the Jets, Chiefs and Seahawks. Not only are these outstanding defenses, but they are extremely physical. The Titans just got through from a very physical 20-13 road loss to the Seahawks. Teams that have played Seattle are 0-5 ATS the following week.


Now the Titans have to take on the extremely physical 49ers defense that features the best inside linebackers in the NFL. Chris Johnson is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and doesn't have a rushing touchdown. Tennessee's defense is down a starter at linebacker.


The 49ers' offense is coming around. Vernon Davis had a monster game last week, the ground game spearheaded by a still highly effective Frank Gore has rushed for a combined 444 yards during the last three games and Kaepernick's confidence is up with the threat of the read-option now back.


The 49ers have done well in October covering nine of their last 11 October games.

The Jets have been getting a lot of mileage out of upsetting the Falcons two weeks ago on Monday night.


New York played well particularly Geno Smith, who played well above his head against a crippled Atlanta team that is turning out to be a fraud.


The Patriots hold a huge talent gap even with their injuries. It's a plus if Rob Gronkowski makes his season debut. But New England doesn't need him to cover this number.


The Jets outplayed the Patriots when they met in Week 2, but still lost by three points. It was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Patriots have won and covered the spread in the series.


Tom Brady has had five more weeks now to get in sync with his new receivers since the team's first meeting. Bill Belichick is a master at confusing rookie quarterbacks such as Smith, who take away the Falcons game has a 4-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Patriots picked off Smith three times in the fourth quarter.


Smith needs plenty of help on offense, but the Jets have multiple injuries at their skill positions, which weren't strong anyways.


The Patriots are 21-9-1 (70 percent) during their last 31 games in October.

Kudos to San Diego coach Mike McCoy for a solid game plan this past Monday night at home in beating the Colts.


That was a nice win for the Chargers, but it doesn't change the fact they are not a very talented team. Their offensive line is below average, made worse by dealing with multiple injuries, and their wide receivers are well below par, too.


San Diego ranks 25th in pass defense. The Chargers have intercepted two passes and given up 10 touchdowns through the air.


Jacksonville's offense is much better with Chad Henne at quarterback instead of the hopelessly overmatched Blaine Gabbert. Justin Blackmon is a top-15 receiver with Henne behind center. Maurice Jones-Drew is starting to run better.


The Jaguars gave the Broncos their toughest battle of the season in Denver.


I'm not trying to camouflage that Jacksonville is the worst team in the league. But the Chargers are a below average team, too, and are in one of the worst spots of the season.


The Chargers have to travel cross-country for an early Sunday start after having just won perhaps their most satisfying game of the season this past Monday night.


The setting and points are right for the Jaguars to get the cover if not their first win of the season. The Jaguars should be going all out knowing this is a winnable game to satisfy their restless fan base.

Philip Rivers is having a nice bounce back year thanks to new Chargers coach Mike McCoy. But the Chargers are an extremely limited team with a below-average offensive line that has been dealing with multiple injuries and a secondary that has given up 10 touchdown passes with only one interception.


Andrew Luck is an emerging superstar. He has the better wide receivers and lead running back with Trent Richardson. Luck can take advantage of a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in yards given up and is 27th in pass defense.


The Colts have covered the past eight times they've met a foe with a losing record. Since the Colts drafted Luck last season they have won 15 of 21 regular season games. Thanks mainly to Luck, they have won 11 of 13 games decided by seven points or fewer.


Luck has thrown just two interceptions in his last 156 throws. He already has led Indianapolis to nine fourth quarter comebacks. He is a far better clutch quarterback than Rivers.


The Chargers suffered a tough blow losing former Colts star pass rusher Dwight Freeney. He had led the Chargers in quarterback hurries.


The Colts are at least one level higher than San Diego.

This isn't just a division game, it's a monster rivalry game. The Redskins play the Cowboys extremely tough. Only once during the past 10 meetings between these two teams have the Cowboys won by more than four points. Washington has covered in the last six meetings.


Washington also has covered in 12 of its last 15 division games.


The Redskins were 3-6 at their bye last year and turned their season around. This is the game after their bye. Robert Griffin III has had four games and now a bye to get the rust off and get back into his superstar groove. I'm expecting his best performance of the season as he's continually getting better since returning from serious knee surgery. He should have his full complement of receiving weapons, too, as Washington's tight ends appear healthy.


The Cowboys' offense is clicking, but their defense ranks 30th in passing and 28th in total yards. Dallas has surrendered a score in 13 of its opponent's last 16 possessions.


The Redskins' defense is playing better. It has better talent than their statistics indicate. The Redskins were caught off guard opening week taking on the new look Chip Kelly Eagles and then had to play a fired-up Packers team on the road.


Dallas is not a good home team as evidenced by its 6-13 ATS mark.

Don't get fooled by this past Monday night. The Jets aren't that good. They are in a letdown spot facing a desperate and proud Steelers team and have key injuries.


Pittsburgh's defense remains highly respectable. The Steelers' offense is picking up, too, with rookie Le 'Veon Bell making a difference in the run game and Ben Roethlisberger getting more in sync with his receivers and having security blanket Heath Miller back.


Roethlisberger can take advantage of a battered Jets secondary that won't have Dee Milner and could also be missing Antonio Cromartie.


The Steelers' defense is due to get takeaways. Rookie Geno Smith played well against a soft injury-riddled Falcons defense, but entered that matchup with a 4-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and being sacked 14 times. Defensive gurus Mike Tomlin and Dick LeBeau have had two weeks to game-plan for Smith.


Smith won't have his best receiver either, in injured former Steeler Santonio Holmes. The Jets won't have suspended tight end Kellen Winslow either.

This is a circle--the-wagons game for the Texans after three consecutive losses.


Last week the Rams got well picking up their first win because they got to play Jacksonville. Now the Texans get well playing the Rams.


There is nothing wrong with Houston's defense. It remains outstanding with J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing in the lineup. There is nothing wrong with Arian Foster and Andre Johnson either. They remain among the best at their respective positions.


Veteran Matt Schaub has been the issue with nine interceptions and pick-sixes in four straight games. Now Schaub is playing for his starting job.


The Texans need to go back to basics and that's run the ball with Foster and Ben Tate. This what I see Houston doing here against a St. Louis defense that ranks 29th versus the run.


The Rams have allowed 508 yards rushing in their last three games. The Rams also are giving up 28.2 points a game, which ranks them 28th. Schaub has been an effective game manager in the past. He should be able to manage well against this weak defense being home and with arguably the best running back tandem in the league to rely on.


Hold off burning those Schaub jerseys this week because I see the Texans winning by double-digits.

The Giants rank last in scoring defense. They've given up at least 31 points in every game. It's safe to say the Bears, with their new emphasis on passing more and using a quick tempo offense, are going to put up their share of points.


Chicago's pass protection has been much improved this season. Jay Cutler is on pace to set a career best in touchdown passes and completion percentage. The Giants have just five sacks, fewest in the NFC.


The Giants are going to be forced to do a lot of passing as their best running back, David Wilson, is out with a neck injury. Eli Manning has been picked off 12 times. No team is better than the Bears in running back defensive scores for touchdowns.


Manning does have dangerous receiving weapons, though, in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle.


The weather can be tricky in Chicago but the forecast is good with very little wind.

Being the visiting team on a Thursday game is hard enough. But when you're 0-5 like the Giants and already out of playoff contention it becomes especially rough.


The Giants' winless record isn't a fluke. Their offensive line is a major liability, there is no semblance of a ground game with David Wilson out and the defense is a mess yielding an NFL-high 36.4 points per game while recording only five sacks.


The Giants are a hideous minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Bears have one of the most opportunistic defenses in football. Chicago led the league in takeaways last year and have 14 this season. No team has returned more of their takeaways for touchdowns than Chicago during the past two seasons.


New York has won just three of its last 13 games and is 0-7 ATS in its past seven away games.


The Bears are off a home loss to the Saints. They are in prime position to take their frustrations out on the morale-challenged Giants. Jay Cutler is deadly with time to pass and now has two excellent tall targets to throw to in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.

A turnover-prone struggling rookie quarterback, a battered below-average wide receiving corps and mediocre running backs are not the formula for putting up many points.



That sums up the Jets' situation on offense where Geno Smith has committed 11 turnovers and been sacked 14 times. New York has multiple injuries to its receivers with its best, Santonio Holmes, out with a hamstring injury.



Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan runs a complex scheme that figures to cause Smith lots of problems. No quarterback has lost more yardage being sacked than Smith. And Smith doesn't have a reliable ground attack either to take the pressure off him against the Falcons, who ranked fifth in run defense going into Sunday.



The flip side is the Falcons are going to have problems putting up touchdowns, too. Atlanta has key injuries on offense where Steven Jackson and left tackle Sam Baker are out and wide receiver Roddy White has done nothing and shouldn't even be playing as he deals with a lingering high ankle sprain. The Falcons would be wise to sit White out since they have a bye in Week 6. Julio Jones isn't 100 percent either.



New York ranked No. 2 in total defense entering Sunday and fourth in rushing defense. The Falcons have two pedestrian runners - Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling - with Jackson missing. The Jets held Doug Martin, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller and Chris Johnson to an average of 2.0 yards per carry during their first four games. Only Martin managed more than 40 yards against the Jets on the ground and it took him 24 carries to rush for 65 yards.



The Jets don't get much good ink. But they are an underrated defensive club that has survived the departure of Darrelle Revis without a noticeable drop in overall talent. Rex Ryan is a loud mouth, but his defense does play hard for him. They can take advantage of a weak Atlanta offensive line.

Philip Rivers is having a nice comeback season. But public perception of the Chargers, based on this line, is way out of whack.



San Diego isn't nearly good enough to be laying this high of a road number against a division foe. It should be noted that while the Chargers have won eight of the last nine in this series - with much stronger teams than their current one - the underdog has covered the past eight times.



The Raiders rank near the bottom in overall talent. They likely will be missing their best skill position player in Darren McFadden. However, Terrelle Pryor is back this week. Pryor is much improved, one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He upgrades Oakland's offense and covers up many of the Raiders' offensive line warts.



The Raiders are far more dangerous with Pryor than with Matt Flynn, who does not fit Oakland's system at all.



Rivers is a name player. However, the Chargers aren't any better than Oakland in the trenches. San Diego has a cluster injury problem in its offensive line and ranks 30th in total defense giving up 432.8 yards per game. The Chargers are 29th in pass defense and 26th in run defense. San Diego ranks last in yards per play at 6.7.



The Chargers are overly dependent on Rivers. They lack a deep threat and have a pedestrian ground attack. The Raiders have a veteran secondary with Charles Woodson, Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins. These guys have all made big plays in their career and they certainly are capable of doing it again.

I feel a lot better about the Ravens now that they're going back to featuring Ray Rice rather than Joe Flacco. The right formula for Baltimore is using Rice to set up Flacco rather than the other way around. It's a plus for Baltimore if Cameron Wake, the Dolphins' star pass rusher, has to miss a second straight game. Stealing Eugene Monroe from Jacksonville is a big plus for the Ravens' offensive line.


Baltimore's defense is better than perceived. The Ravens being torched by Peyton Manning on opening night doesn't look so bad now. Since that game, the Ravens defense has held their last three opponents - Browns, Texans and Bills - to a combined two touchdowns. Both of them were scored by the Bills last week when Flacco was picked off five times.


Miami isn't that good. The Dolphins have been outgained in every game. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked a league-high 18 times. He's vulnerable to Baltimore's blitzes and to Terrell Suggs, one of the top pass rushers in football.


The Dolphins have had one less day to practice after playing this past Monday night. Miami has covered only 32 percent during the past 34 times it has been home chalk.


The Ravens, on the other hand, are 6-2 ATS as road 'dogs during the last three years.

Sean Payton is getting the Saints' offense back into high gear as we head into Week 5. He's surrounded the magnificent Drew Brees with dangerous weapons, including the hardest-to-defend tight end in football, Jimmy Graham.


The Saints, though, are going to be on a grass field facing the Bears' Cover 2 defense that has bothered them in the past. Chicago's Cover 2, though, isn't as good as it once was when Brian Urlacher patrolled the middle and defensive-minded Lovie Smith was the head coach.


Payton has two aces to beat the Bears in their Cover 2 - Graham working the open middle and dangerous Darren Sproles catching passes out of the backfield.


The Bears' defense looks better than what it is because they have an amazing knack for not only coming up with turnovers, but returning those turnovers for touchdowns. No defense has brought back more takeaways for touchdowns during the past two years than the Bears.


Marc Trestman has upgraded Chicago's offense. The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it has looked. They have multiple injuries in their defensive front seven that the brain trust of Trestman and Jay Cutler can exploit. The Bears' pass protection has held up well and Matt Forte is having a big season. He's as dangerous as Sproles on passes out of the backfield.


The chances of defensive scores and special teams touchdowns are increased, too, with the Bears.


The over has cashed in Chicago's last six games, while the Saints have gone over in 14 of their last 20 games against NFC opponents.

The common theme is that this is a matchup of two bad football teams. That's only part true. The Browns, now that they've found the right quarterback and have dynamite wide receiver Josh Gordon back to go with an underrated defense, are not far from respectability.


The Bills are terrible, totally reliant on coming up with turnovers to be able to stay in games.


The combination of the Bills traveling on a short week, having their best player limited, dealing with a cluster injury problem in their secondary and going against a fired-up Browns squad playing their best ball puts me on the favorite.


Cleveland ranks third in total defense and has allowed only two touchdown passes. The Bills are running a limited offense for rookie E.J. Manuel. They are in trouble here with a short preparation week and having C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson banged-up. Doug Marrone has yet to figure out how to get the dangerous Spiller in space. Spiller isn't a given either to play after suffering an ankle injury last week.


Buffalo has lost 14 of its last 16 away games, going 4-11-1 ATS. The Bills also are 3-11-1 ATS following a victory.


Brian Hoyer has surprised his critics. He's been aggressive with his throws and has two outstanding targets in Gordon and tight end Jordan Cameron, who is emerging as the second-best tight end next to Jimmy Graham. These two should have a big night operating against a depleted Buffalo secondary that could be without three starters again. The Browns really don't need overrated Trent Richardson and his 2.9 yards per carry average since they've become a passing team.

Both Miami and New Orleans are 3-0. But the Saints are the more legitimate undefeated team. Miami has been outgained in each of its three games.


The Dolphins are improved, but they are far from an elite team.


The Saints are regaining elite status with Sean Payton back coaching. New Orleans has won AND covered its last 11 home games when Payton has been its coach. The Saints are also 19-6-1 ATS when hosting a non-division opponent and have won eight straight games on Monday night. They are used to center stage. The Dolphins aren't.


Both teams have trouble running the ball, but the Saints don't need an effective ground attack because they have one of the four best quarterbacks in football in Drew Brees and the No. 1 tight end, Jimmy Graham. Payton and Brees mastermind a highly effective air attack that no team has been able to stop, especially inside the Louisiana Superdome's fast track.


The Saints' defense is highly improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan. The Saints defense has given up just 31 points in dispatching the Falcons, Buccaneers and Cardinals. A key to the Saints' defensive turnaround is a better rush. The Dolphins have allowed 14 sacks and rank 26th in total yards.

The Cardinals keep suffering injuries on defense, have yet to figure out an effective offense and are making their third long trip in four weeks making this a bad situational spot for them.


Tampa Bay has some team friction. Josh Freeman has been disappointing so far. But the Bucs' defense has been outstanding and their offensive line should get even better now that Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks has returned.


The Bucs have given up just four touchdowns despite having faced New Orleans and New England as two of their three opponents. Their secondary is much improved with the addition of Darrelle Revis. This is important because the Cardinals have become a heavy passing team with the addition of quarterback Carson Palmer and new head coach Bruce Arians.


The Cardinals haven't played well in their last two games. They have yet to establish a ground game or protect the immobile Palmer. Arizona's best player, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, has been less than 100 percent because of a hamstring injury.


Arizona has lost four defensive starters and will be without suspended linebacker Daryl Washington. The Buccaneers have skill position talent with Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to take advantage especially with Nicks solidifying the offensive line.

Certainly I respect the undefeated Seahawks. But I'm not ready to anoint them as the best team in football, or to agree that they should be a road favorite against the Texans. The Seahawks were very fortunate to beat Carolina in their only other road game this season.


An early start time and a cluster injury problem on their offensive line isn't going to help the Seahawks.


The Seahawks already are without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Russell Okung. Now they aren't likely to have center Max Unger and right tackle Breno Giacomini. Both are listed as doubtful. This should set up more dominating performances from dominant defensive players J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing.


The Seahawks are ground-oriented. Russell Wilson has attempted the fewest passes in the league of any starting quarterback. He has no marquee receivers. The Texans are giving up just 3.2 yards per run, fifth-lowest in the league.


Seattle has been playing great defense. The Texans have a balanced attack, though. Their passing attack gets a big boost as Andre Johnson is expected to play.


The Texans have won nine of their last 11 home games. The Seahawks aren't nearly as intimidating away from their noisy outdoor stadium. The Texans have been a strong September team going 10-3 since 2010. They also are 10-1 ATS in Week 4 the past 11 years.

Once again the defending world champion Ravens aren't getting enough respect. Yes, they are down weapons and Ray Rice is a game-time decision.


But the Ravens still are far superior to the Bills, especially considering Buffalo's many injuries on defense. No teams has suffered as many key injuries on defense as have the Bills especially in their secondary. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill had big games last week for the Jets against the Bills' depleted secondary. Those two hadn't done anything all season.


Joe Flacco is set up to have his best game of the season. This is his strongest matchup. The Ravens should be able to run the ball, too, with capable backup Bernard Pierce if Rice can't go. The Bills have allowed the Jets, Panthers and Patriots to average 4.68 yards per rush. We're talking about unsung ball carriers such as Bilal Powell and Shane Vereen.


Despite losing Ray Lewis to retirement, Baltimore's defense still remains solid with plenty of talent. The Ravens haven't allowed a touchdown during their last two games. The Ravens are sixth in sacks. Terrell Suggs can cause rookie dink-and-dunk quarterback E.J. Manuel plenty of trouble.


The Bills haven't done a good job of getting dynamic running back C.J. Spiller in space. The Ravens are giving up just 3.3 yards on the ground per rush.

The Bears get a lot of takeaways, but their defense has regressed and isn't that strong anymore ranking 25th in total defense and 29th in sacks. Chicago's aged defense is especially vulnerable on carpet and missing Pro Bowl defensive tackle Henry Melton. Cornerback Charles Tillman, who usually is on Calvin Johnson, isn't 100 percent dealing with groin and knee injuries. He missed 22 snaps last week.


Matthew Stafford has major weapons to take advantage with Johnson and Reggie Bush back in the lineup.


The Bears are going to get their points, too, against Detroit's weak secondary. Jay Cutler is on pace to set career highs in touchdown throws and completions. Cutler is playing better than he ever has in a Bears uniform helped by better pass protection and head coach Marc Trestman, a quarterback guru coach.


Look for Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte to have big performances in support of Cutler. Marshall primarily will be operating against 33-year-old washed-up cornerback Rashean Mathis. Forte has a strong history against the Lions gaining a combined 1,200 yards rushing and receiving and scoring nine touchdowns in the last 10 meetings, nine of which have been won by Chicago.

Could the 49ers lose three in a row for the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era?


I don't see it happening here.


The 49ers' problems are well documented. Their offense hasn't moved the ball the past two weeks. Aldon Smith is suspended. Patrick Willis is hurt and may not play. Vernon Davis is a game-time decision. Yes, the 49ers have lost their mojo. But they still are much superior to the Rams.


The Rams very well could be 0-3 if not for the Cardinals blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead against them opening week. The Rams fell 21 points behind the Falcons, who haven't looked good, and then were absolutely destroyed by Dallas last week.


DeMarco Murray came to life to bash the Rams for 175 yards rushing, averaging nearly seven yards per carry. The 49ers can bash the Rams' defense, too, behind one of the best offensive lines in football with the running of Frank Gore and Colin Kapernick operating option plays. Kaepernick is going to be tougher to handle playing on turf.


The Rams have covered all four of the matchups between the two teams under Jeff Fisher. There's no way the 49ers will underestimate St. Louis in this matchup.


St. Louis has become one dimensional with no running game. That puts the entire onus on Sam Bradford, who is far from an elite quarterback. I would easily take Kaepernick over Bradford. The Rams have improved their speed,but their offense is a work in progress way too ovrereliant on passing.

Forget about all that nonsense about taking more than two touchdowns with a division rival. That's old school NFL.


New school NFL is all about passing. The Broncos are the best at it and the Raiders are one of the worst.


Peyton Manning has been unstoppable this season thanks to an upgraded receiving corps. He's thrown nine touchdown passes in two games. Manning's touchdown-to-interception ratio is up to 46-to-13 in 18 regular-season games with Denver.


The Raiders' defense is no match for Manning especially after losing safety Tyvon Branch to an ankle injury last week.


Oakland played hard in getting a cover against Indianapolis in Week 1 and then took care of the worst team in the NFL by far, Jacksonville, last Sunday at home. But now the Raiders are stepping light years up. Denver very well could be the best team in the NFL right now,


Oakland quarterback Terrelle Pryor can't throw downfield. He's just dangerous with his feet. Denver won't be fooled by him. The Broncos aren't going to let Pryor run. The Raiders are not build for shootouts, or for coming from behind. So they're going to be in big trouble once they start surrendering touchdowns to Denver's high-powered offensive machine.


Don't look for a Denver letdown either following its impressive road win against the Giants last week. The Broncos hate the Raiders and this is on the Monday night stage.

The Saints have won AND covered their past 10 home games when Sean Payton has been coaching. Look for that streak to continue in this matchup.


This is a bad situational spot for Arizona traveling cross-country following a highly-satisfying home win against Detroit. An early start time is not good either for the Cardinals.


New Orleans has covered 17 of its last 22 in the Superdome. The Cardinals have been strong against the run, but rank 21st versus the pass and only have one sack, tied for last in the NFL. The Saints only pay lip service to running the ball. They are a throwing team all the way and will be at the goal line, too, after watching disappointing Mark Ingram get stuffed again trying to score on a short run.


New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has improved the Saints' defense. New Orleans held Atlanta to just 17 points opening week and last Sunday gave up just 14 points and 273 yards on the road to the Buccaneers.


The Cardinals are passing a lot more under new coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Carson Palmer. But those two aren't on the same page yet. Arizona's passing attack is a work in progress. Not helping matters is star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has a nagging hamstring injury that reduces his effectiveness.


The Saints are far more aggressive on defense under Ryan. They will be blitzing Palmer in the loud Superdome. Palmer is a statue in the pocket. He could be in for a rough afternoon.

The oddsmakers have opened a wrong favorite. We've been down this path before with these two teams.


They met in Week 3 last year at Carolina and the Panthers were favored. The Giants ended up blasting them, 36-7, scoring on eight of their last 10 possessions.


The Panthers are operating the wrong offense for Cam Newton and their secondary is highly vulnerable to the Giants' excellent passing attack. Already weakened by the retirement of cornerback Chris Gamble, the Panthers lost their leader in the secondary this past Sunday with free safety Charles Godfrey going down with an Achilles' injury.


The Giants should have beaten Dallas on the road opening week but were done in by a minus 5 turnover ratio. There was no shame in losing to Denver this past Sunday. The Broncos are in the argument for best team in the NFL.


The Panthers, on the other hand, let the Bills and a rookie quarterback beat them. They couldn't protect Newton surrendering 4 1/2 sacks to Mario Williams alone.


Carolina is just 2-5 ATS when chalk. The Panthers are poorly coached. They are 2-14 SU in games decided by seven points or less under Ron Rivera.


The Giants, on the other hand under future Hall of Fame coach Tom Coughlin, are 8-3-1 ATS as underdogs.

This is a circle the wagons game for the 0-2 Redskins. I see Robert Griffin III playing his best game of the year now that he's had two games to get the rust off him. He's facing a weak secondary.


Washington doesn't need extra motivation, but the tragic shooting in D.C. this week could add additional emotion.


The Lions have covered less than 35 percent of their road games during the past seven years. This is an off-surface for them and their second consecutive road game. Detroit is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on grass. Lions kicker David Akers can no longer kick well on grass.


The Lions are undisciplined and poorly coached. They are a bunch of front runners who can't handle adversity, which crops up often on the road. Already the Lions have committed 19 penalties totaling nearly 200 yards.


Detroit is heavily reliant on Reggie Bush, both as its main runner and a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. Bush, though, probably isn't going to play after suffering a knee injury last week. Bush was hurting after Week 1, too.

Neither team has a good secondary. The Giants only have five sacks in their last seven games so they've been unable to mask their trouble in the secondary, which is made worse this week with cornerback Corey Webster unlikely to play. Lack of depth in their defensive backfield is a real problem for the Giants.


Look for the Panthers to pass more than they have to take advantage and also knowing their run-oriented style isn't best suited to Cam Newton's talents. The Panthers should be effective, too, though when they run. The Giants have allowed their first two opponents, Denver and Dallas, to combine to rush for 200 yards and average 4.2 yards per rush.


The Giants are going to score their share of points, too. The Panthers' secondary, already weak to begin the year, has a cluster injury problem with free safety Charles Godfrey out for the year with a torn Achilles'. They also have injuries to their strong safety, left cornerback and to their nick and dime backs.


The Giants have one of the best receiving trios in football with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle. Eli Manning does have seven interceptions, but he also is second in passing yards, fifth in touchdown throws and second in 20-plus yard completions.

As expected, the Chiefs are much improved under Andy Reid. But this a terrible situational spot for them traveling on a very short week following a big home win against Dallas.



What makes it worse is tangling against the Eagles and their new look fast-break offense.



The Eagles' offense hasn't been slowed this season. The Eagles rank second in yardage at 477 per game and third in points at 31.5 per contest. Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are all healthy again and having major seasons.



A lot is going to be made of Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia. That's another distraction for Reid and the Chiefs to deal with. The Eagles are going to be steaming mad after losing at home at the end to San Diego.



Alex Smith isn't nearly a good enough passer to trade points with such a high-powered opponent. The Eagles have a weak secondary, but Smith is a dink and dunker who is unable to take full advantage.



The Chiefs rely heavily on Jamaal Charles and he isn't 100 percent.

Sometimes it can be a mistake to overreact to what happens on opening week.


But not in the case of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is in deep trouble.


The Steelers were the AFC's lowest scoring team during preseason when they went 0-4. Their troubles continued at home against Tennessee as their offense produced just seven points and 195 yards. This was against Tennessee, which gave up the most points per game last year of any team.


Pittsburgh has its youngest offensive line in 56 years. The Steelers' one key offensive lineman, Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, was lost for the season against the Titans. Pittsburgh's offensive line imploded without Pouncey. Cincinnati has one of the 10 best defenses and had a franchise-best 51 sacks last year.


Ben Roethlisberger has no ground game to turn to with a running back committee of rejects and his passing attack is minus deep threat Mike Wallace and reliable tight end Heath Miller.


The Steelers' defense still is good, but it's not dominant anymore. The linebacking corps took a hit with a season-ending injury to Larry Foote. Pittsburgh's defense is getting old and missing several former mainstays, including linebacker James Harrison, who is now with Cincinnati. The emotional Harrison will be super psyched going against his former team.


The Bengals have won seven of their last nine regular season games. Their only losses during this span were by one point to Dallas last year and by three points to Chicago on the road last week in a game they should have won.


Cincinnati's offense is improved with Andy Dalton more experienced and rookie running back Giovani Bernard and tight end Tyler Eifert joining A.J. Green, the best wideout in the AFC.


The Steelers have dominated Cincinnati through the years. Now the Bengals have a chance for payback on national TV catching the Steelers when they are physically down and their confidence is at low ebb.

Two big throwing offenses meet here with plenty of big-play personnel in the respective lineups. So, no, the oddsmaker has not made this total high enough.


The Lions are better offensively with Reggie Bush. He gives them an outside running threat AND a dangerous checkdown receiver out of the backfield.


The Cardinals' offense is much improved this season. Bruce Arians is an offensive guru and Carson Palmer has a big arm and a downfield mentality. His days of being an upper tier quarterback have been over for several years, but he's Arizona's best quarterback since Kurt Warner.


The Cardinals actually have two good receivers and one great one in Larry Fitzgerald. They are all made dangerous because of Carson and Arians' emphasis on passing. They will attack the Lions' biggest weakness, which is their secondary.


The oddsmaker hasn't quite fully adjusted to all the new rules skewed for offense. This used to be a big total to go over. Not anymore. Nowadays what should be over/unders of 48 and 49 should be put at 52 and 53 to accommodate what today's NFL has become especially when good quarterbacks are involved.

Both defenses were overworked last week. The Redskins are traveling on a short week. Their defense had to face the Eagles, the most up-tempo team in the NFL, and was on the field for nearly 33 minutes. Green Bay's defense was on the field for close to 39 minutes against San Francisco.


The Redskins are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots with declining veterans DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson. The Redskins ranked 30th in pass defense last season. They are vulnerable to the Packers' devastating passing attack.


Green Bay is averaging 34.4 points in their last five games and that's going against the 49ers defense twice and Vikings defense twice. The over has cashed 17 of the past 24 times (71%) in Green Bay's home games.


Robert Griffin III was rusty in the first half in his first action since off-season knee surgery. He started to get going in the second half and should be sharper in his second game of the game.


The Packers still can't find a pass rusher to complement Clay Matthews and could be without two key members of their secondary again, Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward.


There is a chance of rain, but only a slight wind.

Andy Reid knows more about the Cowboys than the Cowboys know about Reid's Chiefs.


Kansas City has four Pro Bowl players on defense and an improved offense. The Chiefs won't commit the turnovers they did last year with Alex Smith behind center.


The Cowboys were celebrating like crazy after beating the Giants at home Sunday night. Dallas won by five points despite having a plus 5 turnover edge. That's not impressive.


The Cowboys have problems on both their offensive and defensive lines. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant aren't 100 percent either.


The Chiefs have one of the best home field edges in football. Dallas is playing outdoors on grass, which isn't a natural setting for them. The Cowboys also are 0-4-1 ATS the last five years when playing in Week 2.

It's usually a mistake to go under in a Patriots game. But not this time.



This is a Thursday game so both teams preparation has been scaled down. Offenses often come out flat on Thursday games. These two teams know each other well, too, being in the same division.


The Jets have a pop-gun offense. They lack any talent at the skill positions. Geno Smith will be making his first road start. He's going against one of the greatest defensive minds of all-time in Bill Belichick.


The Patriots finished 10th last season in fewest points allowed per game. They won't have any problem handling the Jets' offense.


The key in winning this under is holding New England down. The Jets have a decent defense. The Patriots are running the ball more. They also are missing key skill position players Danny Amendola, their best wide receiver, and running back Shane Vereen, who is their best receiver out of the backfield.


Tom Brady is not in sync yet with his stable of new receivers. The time to play the Patriots under is early in the season before Brady gets into a rhythm with his new teammates.

Just like last year, the oddsmaker opened the Texans too short in Week 1. The Texans were steamed last year against Miami and they easily covered that opener, 30-10. It was the third straight time the Texans have won and covered their opener with their average victory margin being by 19 points.



I see the same thing happening here. The best time to back the Texans is now because this line is only going to go higher.



I rank the Texans with the Patriots and Broncos as the class of the AFC. The Chargers are rebuilding at best and are a bottom three team at worst.



The Texans are solid at every position and should dominate the trenches. The Chargers are breaking in new corners, are thin on the defensive line, have beat-up wide receivers and a bad offensive line making them prey to J.J. Watt. In fact, the Chargers have an extreme talent deficiency all across their team.



Perhaps the linesmaker isn't fully aware yet - but San Diego is going to be very bad. This is the chance to get a far superior team at a very cheap price.



Arian Foster should play. But even if he doesn't, I'm fine with Ben Tate getting the majority of carries. He's one of the best backup running backs in the league.

Lots of big names at the skill positions, but a closer study of the two teams reveals what should be a dead nuts under game.



The Packers have upgraded the depth in their defensive line and secondary. So their defense should be improved. Green Bay is highly motivated to control Colin Kaepernick after he embarrassed the Packers in the playoffs last season. The Packers have had an entire season now to prepare for Kaepernick and his read-option attack. Kaepernick is without his leading receiver, injured Michael Crabtree.



The 49ers' defense is elite. Justin Smith is healthy, which he wasn't down the stretch last season. His presence makes Aldon Smith a terror. Smith led the NFC with 19 1/2 sacks. The 49ers' defense should dominate the trenches. Green Bay has reshuffled its offensive line. The Packers are without their best tackle, too, with Bryan Bulaga out for the year.



The Packers are starting a rookie at left tackle and a second-year player at right tackle. Expectations are low for both players. The Packers are highly vulnerable protecting Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked a league-high 51 times last year.



The timing between Rodgers and his two top wide receivers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, figures to be off, too, since both were hurt during preseason. Cobb still may not be 100 percent. He's dealing with a bicep injury. DeJuan Harris, Green Bay's change of pace back who was going to split carries with Eddie Lacey, is out for the year.



The Packers could run more than usual to keep the 49ers honest and to slow down their pass rush. Lacey is a move-the-chains type of runner not a sprinter. This is going to kill clock. Playing on grass also slows down the Packers and Kaepernick.

The Raiders are going to struggle to put up touchdowns with one of the worst offensive lines and starting quarterback in the NFL. The Raiders had one very good offensive lineman - left tackle Jared Veldheer - and he's out possibly for the season. Replacing Veldheer is rookie Menelik Watson, who played one year of college football.



Making matters even worse for Oakland is its quarterback position. The starter, at least for now, is Terrelle Pryor. He can run, but he can't hide. He also can't throw with any accuracy. He's not helped either by a well below average wide receiving group.



The Raiders' key to upsetting the Colts is maintaining ball control by running Darren McFadden. The Raiders actually are 10-2 when McFadden rushes for 100 or more yards, including winning the past six times that has happened. To try to make this happen, the Raiders have changed their offense going to a power scheme. They figure to run the ball a lot against a smallish, but quick Colts' defensive front seven. That's going to eat clock. Pryor can only hurt defenses with his feet not with his arm.



The Colts have tweaked their offense. They lost their interim coach and offensive guru, Bruce Arians. New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton favors a shorter passing attack. The Colts' offensive line is average at best and Oakland's strength is its secondary, which features three solid veterans in Charles Woodson, Mike Jenkins and Tracy Porter.



The Colts should win this game. So this would be a good game for them to run more getting newcomer Ahmad Bradshaw carries since he didn't play in preseason while not showing their hand on their new style of offense saving things for next week when they have a more challenging opponent in Miami.

New England has owned Buffalo beating the Bills 23 of the past 26 times. This game shouldn't pose any problems either for New England.


Tom Brady lost his main receivers from last year and won't have Rob Gronkowski. But he does have Danny Amendola and a much improved ground attack. The Patriots have averaged 40.1 points in their last six games versus Buffalo.


The Bills have a new defensive system, have a cluster injury problem in their secondary, inexperienced wide receivers and a rookie quarterback.


Bill Belichick can easily game plan to stop rookie E.J. Manuel, who didn't play in the last two preseason games because of swelling in his knee, or undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel, who has little arm strength.


There is no way for the Bills to keep up with Brady, who shouldn't have any difficulty picking apart the Bills' battered secondary.

I'm always attracted to the superior team getting points. That's the case in this matchup.



Cincinnati holds key edges in the trenches against the Bears and has greatly upgraded at the skill positions giving Andy Dalton additional weapons to work with besides the great A.J. Green. The Bengals very well could have the best tight end tandem in the NFL with Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert.



The Bengals covered six of their eight road games last year. They have won seven of their past eight regular season games and were 5-1 in their last six games versus NFC foes. Their only loss in these six games was to Dallas by one point.



The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Solider Field. They have failed to cover the last four times they've been favorites of 3 1/2 points or less.



The Bears are old on defense - while the Bengals defense is in its prime. Chicago lost a lot of leadership - especially on defense - with Lovie Smith getting fired and future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher retiring.



Marc Trestman is unproven as a head coach. He's an offensive coach who inherits Jay Cutler, a hot-and-cold gunslinger who has yet to prove he can win. Cutler is a pocket passer and the Bears haven't been able to protect him. He's been sacked 61 times in the last 25 games.



The Bengals set a franchise mark with 51 sacks last year. They have a number of excellent pass rushers, including Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. They can take advantage of a new Chicago offense that very much is a work in progress.

Carolina should have beaten the Seahawks at home last year, but were stopped on the 1-yard during a goal line stand when Cam Newton misfired with a receiver open in the end zone.


The Panthers have revenge and like Seattle are better now than when they faced the Seahawks in Week 5 last year. Carolina finished last season winning six of its last nine as Newton played much better. The Panthers knocked off the Falcons, Redskins and Saints in New Orleans during this span.


The Seahawks have numerous defensive injuries and face a strong look-ahead game. They host the 49ers next Sunday night in one of their biggest games of the season. The Seahawks are not helped either by the early start time since they playing three hours ahead of their normal time.


Seattle has a new defensive coordinator after Gus Bradley took over as head coach of Jacksonville. Star pass rusher Chris Clemons may not play due to a knee injury. Linebacker Bruce Irving is suspended and tackles Brandon Mebane and Tony McDaniel are dealing with injuries. Free agent acquisition defensive end Cliff Avril has a hamstring injury.


This is a classic ambush spot. The Panthers are underrated and motivated. Seattle has become a public team and is overrated.

This isn't like the old days with totals. A 47 isn't that high of a total anymore because of the many rule changes implemented during the past few years favoring offense. The rules have gone too far giving offenses far more advantages than defenses.

The Ravens' defense is sprinkled with big name players. But nearly all of these defensive players are either past their prime, or not at 100 percent. Baltimore also is minus their top cornerback, Lardarius Webb.

Baltimore's defense stepped up big time on the road against the Patriots, but the Ravens also were very familiar with New England. They don't know the 49ers' offense, no opponent really does because San Francisco's attack is cutting edge thanks to multi-talented Colin Kaepernick.

The 49ers are combining old fashion power football with various college elements, including the pistol and option elements, in taking full advantage of Kaepernick's running and passing skills. This is truly unique. Kaepernick's passer rating during his nine starts would have placed him fifth if it included the entire regular season instead of the final seven games plus two playoff matchups.

San Francisco has the superior defense. But the 49ers' defense, while good, has been far from dominant during the last quarter of the season. If you discount the 49ers' game against the punchless Cardinals, who were starting fourth-string quarterback Brian Hoyer, San Francisco has allowed an average of 32.7 points during its last four games.

San Francisco has gone over the total in its last six games. The Ravens have gone over in six of their nine matchups against playoff teams with one of the unders occurring during a meaningless Week 17 game against the Bengals when their offensive starters hardly played.

Joe Flacco is riding his best hot streak ever when factoring in road contests outdueling Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks. Flacco has eight touchdown passes during Baltimore's three postseason victories.

Both Flacco and Kaepernick are going to be aided playing on carpet inside the Superdome.

Yes, I understand this is more of an exhibition than a real game. And, yes, I know that a combined 96 and 100 points have been scored during the last two Pro Bowls.

But there is a handicap to this game - and it's not to the over.

The game was so bad last year that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is strongly considering ending it. The players don't want that. A decision will be made by April on the future of the game and much of that decision will be influenced by how this year's game is played.

Goodell has urged the participants to play harder. Peyton Manning is urging the same thing. So I believe, that unlike previous years, there will be some pride at stake and defenses will actually tackle and try to defend. They will be under a lot of scrutiny. That makes this total way out of whack.


The two best quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, won't be playing.


The AFC's quarterbacks are Manning, Andrew Luck and Matt Schaub. Luck finished 26th in the quarterback ratings, one spot behind Blaine Gabbert. Schaub is more of a game-manager than downfield attacker. I rank him 17th among starting quarterbacks.


The NFC quarterbacks are Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Russell Wilson. Not only is Rodgers not playing, but neither are Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Tony Romo and Cam Newton. I rank those four ahead of Wilson.


Defenses are very vanilla in the Pro Bowl. But there are a number of excellent pass rushers and each squad's offensive line isn't used to working together as a unit.


Then there's this ridiculously high total. Even if the defenses don't produce as well as I believe they will, it still takes 12 touchdowns to get over. That's far from a given even in this exhibition.

Everybody thinks offense with the Patriots. Everybody remembers 73 points being scored in last week's Ravens-Broncos game.

But this matchup is different and the total has gotten high enough where an under play is warranted. This is going to be a very physical matchup between two teams that know each other well.

It's an outdoor January game in Foxboro where the wind forecast is for 20 miles per hour. There were 43 points scored when Baltimore played New England at the same venue in last season's AFC title game.

New England's defense has improved since then. The Patriots ranked in the top 10 in run defense and their secondary has gotten better with Devin McCourty moving from cornerback to safety and cornerback Aqib Talib coming from Tampa Bay.

The Patriots' offense is less diverse and less dangerous without star tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots have become more run-oriented this season. They actually led the AFC in rush attempts.

Baltimore's defense is down from past seasons. But the Ravens will play with an all-out savage attitude spurred on by Ray Lewis in what could be his final game.

The Ravens have averaged 13 more runs per game since Jim Caldwell replaced Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator in Week 15. Joe Flacco has not been a good road quarterback with the exception of last week. The Ravens are going to feature Ray Rice more than a no-huddle, which means more time running off the clock and less time stoppage.

The 49ers are stronger physically than the Falcons - and mentally, too, under Jim Harbaugh.

The Falcons had problems with Russell Wilson. They'll have worse trouble with a red-hot Colin Kaepernick, who runs better than Wilson. The Falcons could be missing their top pass rusher, John Abraham, too.

The 49ers ranked second in scoring defense and were either third or fourth in the rest of the major defensive categories. They played a much stronger schedule than Atlanta meeting playoff foes Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle twice and New England. The Falcons just drew the Broncos and Redskins - and both of those games were early in the season before those teams were playing well.

No team played a softer schedule than the Falcons.

For all the talk about Atlanta's home field edge, the Falcons actualy scored fewer points per game at home than on the road and Matt Ryan had 10 fewer touchdowns at home and is quarterback rating wasn't nearly as good in the Georgia Dome compared to the road.

The 49ers' offense has gotten much more explosive with Kaepernick. The Falcons are weak versus the run giving up 4.8 yards per carry. A still highly effective Frank Gore can take advantage not to mention Kapernick. Under Kaepernick, Michael Crabtree has reached his enormous potential becoming one of the better wideouts in the league. Vernon Davis still remains dangerous, too.

I'll take the Falcons at home in this short price range. Atlanta has won 11 of its last 12 games at Georgia Dome. The Falcons' only home loss during this time span occurred in Week 17 to Tampa Bay when the Falcons already had home-field advantage clinched.

Matt Ryan led the NFL in completion percentage while finishing in the top five in touchdowns and yardage. Russell Wilson is a nice story, but he can't compare to Ryan especially in Ryan's home dome where he has won 33 of 38 regular season games. Ryan has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last five games with just one interception. Wilson, by contrast, has a 9-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road.

The Seahawks have a losing road record. They have lost to the Cardinals, Rams, Lions and Dolphins away from home. The Falcons are much more dangerous in their home dome setting then the Lions, who put up 28 points and 352 passing yards on Seattle.

The Falcons are healthy while the Seahawks are without their best pass rusher, Chris Clemons. The Seahawks are traveling for the second time in two weeks while the Falcons are well rested.

I'm not sold on the Seahawks' offense either. I like Wilson, but he's not an elite quarterback like Ryan. I also like Marshawn Lynch, but the Falcons will be keying on him. The Falcons faced Cam Newton twice and Robert Griffin III - when he was healthy - so they have experience with option-type quarterbacks such as Wilson.

Much is being made of the Falcons being 0-3 in the playoffs during the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan era. Don't put any stock in it. Two of those defeats came when the Falcons were on the road.

Atlanta is the better team and in the better situation.

The combination of the Ravens and road hasn't been a good one. But Baltimore is playoff road-tested under John Harbaugh with a winning spread mark in eight away games.

The Ravens' defense isn't nearly what it was in the past, but it still has good players and has gotten healthier with the return of Ray Lewis, Dannell Ellerbee and Bernard Pollard. That's 244 tackles. All three missed the Dec. 16 game when the Broncos beat the Ravens, 34-17.

A lot is being made of Denver crushing Baltimore as the game was more lopsided than the final score. However, the Ravens were right in there but couldn't overcome a possible 14-point turnaround when Joe Flacco was intercepted at the goal line and the interception was returned 98 yards for a touchdown.

Since that game, Flacco has not committed a turnover. The Broncos have a solid offense and defense. But I'm not convinced they are a dominant team that can beat a prideful, playoff-tested opponent by double-digits. Denver picked up six of its victories playing division patsies Oakland, Kansas City and San Diego while also beating Cleveland.

Beating those lower tier opponents can built up misleading statistics. I see the Ravens, with their experienced proven leadership, stepping up and keeping this matchup close.

There are three main misperceptions about this matchup. The oddsmaker has bought into them causing this total to be higher than it should. They are the major basis for my favoring the under.

Misperception No. 1: The Redskins have a terrible pass defense since they rank 30th. Yes, only New Orleans and Tampa Bay surrendered more passing yards than Washington. But the Redskins' secondary has gotten much better and will be reinforced by the return of veteran cornerback Cedric Griffin from suspension. The Redskins held six of their last nine foes to fewer than 235 yards passing. This includes holding Dallas and a hot Tony Romo to just 218 passing yards last week in the battle for the NFC East title.

Misperception No. 2: Robert Griffin III is the most dangerous dual threat - passing and running - player in the NFL. This was true before Griffin suffered a knee injury. Now he's forced to wear a bulky knee brace and his mobility is greatly restricted. Before the injury, Griffin averaged eight carries a game. Since the injury, he's averaged half his regular number of carries. The Seahawks are experienced in defending mobile quarterbacks who mix in option runs and pitchouts. The Seahawks defeated and defended well against two top option-caliber quarterbacks in Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. They held Newton to a combined 183 yards and Kaepernick to 275 in a 29-point victory two weeks ago over the 49ers.

Seattle has a top-10 run defense and arguably the hardest-hitting secondary in the league. Seattle's secondary is going to be even better now with the return of suspended cornerback Brandon Browner. Cornerback Marcus Trufant and linebacker Leroy Hill practiced this week and both are expected to play, too. Browner and Richard Sherman, who emerged as a shutdown cornerback, can take away Griffin's major receiving threat, Pierre Garcon.

Misperception No. 3: Russell Wilson is a stud quarterback. Wilson is - but only when he's played at home where his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 17-to-2. On the road, Wilson has been picked off eight times and thrown just nine touchdown passes. The Seahawks' offensive line was exposed last week by the Rams, who sacked Wilson six times. That came in Seattle, too.

The Seahawks are not some high-scoring machine on the road. Some have that perception, however, because Seattle put up 50 points on Buffalo in its last road matchup. That game, though, was played in Toronto, a neutral site. This one is a true road test for the Seahawks and is on grass, which slows down both Wilson and Griffin. Discount that game against the Bills and the Seahawks averaged 17 points on the road.

Baltimore hasn't looked good, but my feeling is the Ravens will show up strong at home where they have won 15 of their last 17 and Joe Flacco has a history of playing well. Ray Rice should have a big game, too, going against the Colts' 29-ranked run defense.

The Colts are a nice story, but the bottom line is they aren't very good. They compiled their record by beating a lot of bad teams in close games.

The Colts have been outscored by 30 points on the season. They've struggled big-time on the road when they've faced superior opposition getting blown out by the Bears, Patriots and Texans.

Aside from their 29th-ranked run defense, the Colts rank 26th in total defense. They don't run the ball well and Andrew Luck finished 26th in the passer ratings behind Blaine Gabbert.

This is the game where the Colts get exposed.

For one of the rare times this season, Aaron Rodgers is going to have all his weapons as Randall Cobb is expected to play. The Vikings don't have nearly the defensive backfield depth to stay with Cobb, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley, who has played well down the stretch. Green Bay's improved rushing attack and Rodgers' outstanding mobility can keep the Vikings' pass rushers in check. The Vikings' secondary could really be down if Antoine Winfield, Minnesota's best cornerback, is rendered near helpless with a hand injury.

The Vikings have stepped up with their two best games of the season during the last two weeks upsetting the Texans on the road and Packers at home. I don't see Minnesota being able to play its "A" game a third consecutive week, especially after just beating the Packers. Christian Ponder isn't as bad as he looked earlier in the season, but he's not as good either as he played last week. He's a dink-and-dunker nearly totally dependent on Adrian Peterson.

Peterson isn't going to be that much help, though, if the Vikings fall behind, which I expect to happen.

Green Bay has a history of coming back strong after a loss covering eight of the last nine times in that situation.

The Lambeau Field playoff mystique can't be discounted either. Green Bay is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 home matchups. The Packers are used to pressure January games. This is the first time the Vikings have made the postseason under Leslie Frazier.

Peterson and Rodgers are both great players. I wouldn't have a problem if either one was named MVP. But Rodgers has far more weapons and is home. The Packers' defense is better than it showed at Minnesota last week, especially Tramon Williams. Green Bay will be helped, too, by return of Charles Woodson.

Sparked by fantastic Robert Griffin III, Washington just has to win this game to capture the NFC East Division despite a 3-6 start.

The Redskins are playing well, but so are Dallas and Tony Romo. The Cowboys have won five of their last seven with one of those defeats occurring in overtime to New Orleans. Romo has thrown for 1,328 yards with a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. Romo has a 104.4 quarterback mark since the start of November, which is the second-best in the league during that time frame.

Romo has been aided by the return to health of DeMarco Murray, who provides the Cowboys with a respectable ground game, and the emergence of Dez Bryant as a consistent elite wide receiver. Bryant has turned his vast potential into great production scoring 10 touchdowns and picking up 808 receiving yards during the past seven games.

Griffin returned last week against the Eagles after missing the Redskins' win against the Browns with a sprained knee. Griffin was sharp again passing going 16-for-24 for 198 yards and touchdowns, but his mobility was severely restricted wearing a knee brace. He carried just twice against the Eagles for only four yards. Griffin remains good, but he's not a dominant two-way threat like he was before the injury.

The Redskins beat Dallas on Thanksgiving, but prior to that had lost three of the last four meetings. Washington hasn't been in this big of a pressure game this late in the season since 1999. They are not used to these situations. Expectations are even higher with the Redskins playing at home.

This is the Sunday night game. So if the Vikings lose to the Packers and the Bears, a 3-point road favorite against Detroit, should also lose the Redskins would clinch a playoff berth even before this game started. If that were to be the case, the Redskins' intensity level could drop leaving just Dallas to need a victory for a playoff berth.

It's not a fluke the Packers have defeated the Vikings in 10 of the last 13 meetings, including the past five times. The Packers are the superior team. Green Bay beat Minnesota, 23-14, in Week 13 despite not playing well.

Look for Green Bay to play much better this time around. The Packers are clearly peaking winning nine of their last 10. Green Bay is 12-3 ATS the past 15 times they've met a foe with a winning record.

The Vikings took advantage of a surprisingly flat Houston squad this past Sunday. Kudos to the Vikings for that. But the Vikings remain a limited team with a major weakness at quarterback.

Adrian Peterson is getting a lot of MVP run. No one has made a greater comeback in his first season back from a serious knee injury like Peterson. He's a great player. But Aaron Rodgers is quietly having another MVP-type season, too, with a 35-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Vikings' strengths are Peterson, their pass rush particularly Jared Allen and a decent secondary. The Packers are well aware of Peterson. They are going to key on him knowing they don't have to respect the downfield passing of Christian Ponder. No Minnesota wide receiver has more than 53 receiving yards in a game since Week 10.

Rodgers nullifies Minnesota's pass rush with his quick release and outstanding mobility. The Packers quietly have improved their ground attack rushing for triple digits in six of their last seven games. So the Vikings have to pay at least lip service to Green Bay's rushing attack.

Cincinnati is playing well going 6-1 in their last seven games with its only loss during this span coming to Dallas by one point on a Cowboys field goal with four seconds left.

Baltimore has lost three of its last four and does not perform nearly as well on the road as it does at home. Before scoring 33 points against the Giants at home last week, the Ravens had averaged 18.2 points in their last five games.

Joe Flacco has his lowest road completion percentage of his career this season at 57.1 percent, averaging just six yards per attempt on the road. The Ravens' defense, racked by injuries to key performers, is down from past editions. The Ravens have surrendered 29 or more points five times this season.

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis will not be resting starters. He wants to win this game to go into the playoffs with momentum. The Bengals have been eliminated in first-round playoff action two of the past three years because Lewis sat out starters and his team was flat.

The Ravens, by contrast, are best served by actually losing this game. That would give them the No. 4 seed in the AFC and allow them to play the Colts and then possibly the Texans instead of a second-round draw against the Patriots or Broncos.

Both San Francisco and Seattle have top-notch defenses. But don't expect a repeat of the team's Week 7 meeting won by the 49ers, 13-6. There is going to be much more scoring in this rematch on both sides.

Jim Harbaugh crossed the Rubicon and gave the go-ahead to ditch his conservative Alex Smith-led offense and go with Colin Kaepernick. It was a gutsy and right call. The 49ers are much more dangerous offensively now with their offense opened up by the mobility and big arm of Kaepernick, who has a combined nine touchdowns and just one interception. The Seahawks are down one of their starting cornerbacks, Brandon Browner.

Russell Wilson has improved, too, since Week 7. He's been especially strong at home with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The key is that these young quarterbacks - Kaepernick and Wilson - have outstanding running backs to take the pressure off them in Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch. Gore runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Seattle's run defense has slipped. The Seahawks actually surrender the eight-highest run per carry at 4.5. Kaepernick is a dangerous runner in addition to completing 66.4 percent of his throws averaging 6.3 yards per rush. Kaepernick proved his worth winning a shootout against Tom Brady at New England last week.

The 49ers' defense was exposed by a great offense in that victory. Seattle doesn't have a great offense, although Lynch is close to being a great back. But the Seahawks are playing their finest ball scoring 50 and 58 points, respectively, during the past two weeks. Seattle is going to encounter a tired 49ers defense, too. Lynch has averaged 105 yards rushing on 5.2 yards a carry during his last two games against the 49ers.

San Francisco's defense was on the field for 94 snaps last Sunday night against New England. The Patriots ran a lot of no-huddle in the second half to really tire out the 49ers. The 49ers probably won't have underrated star defensive lineman Justin Smith either. He suffered an elbow injury versus the Patriots. Aldon Smith is leading the NFL in sacks thanks in part to Justin Smith. The 49ers didn't apply any pressure on Brady once Justin Smith went out.

OK, the Bears failed in their big NFC North Division showdown last week against Green Bay. But let's not get carried away. The Bears, despite their second-half slump, are still more than a touchdown better than Arizona.

The timing of this matchup, though, makes this a lower than it should be point spread. The Cardinals just defeated Detroit, 38-10, at home. That victory, though, doesn't obscure the fact that the Cardinals have the worst offense in the NFL.

Thanks to their defense coming up with turnovers, the Cardinals scored three short touchdowns on offense against Detroit last week. That gives Arizona's offense 11 touchdowns in its last 10 games. The Cardinals rank last in yards and rushing. They are in the bottom four in scoring and passing. Ryan Lindley and John Skelton have combined to throw just two touchdown passes with 15 interceptions. Lindley, who gets the start here, has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has eight turnovers.

The Bears still have an upper tier defense ranking in the top five in yardage and fewest points. The Bears own the skill position advantages with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall, who has 46 more receptions than Larry Fitzgerald, 724 more receiving yards and six more touchdowns.

Prior to defeating the listless Lions, the Cardinals had lost nine straight. Arizona has failed to cover in four of its last five home contests.

Chicago hasn't lost to a losing team all season. The Bears' losses have been to the Packers, Texans, Seahawks, 49ers and Vikings. The combined record of those teams is 49-20. The Bears are 10-4-1 ATS on the road when playing a foe with a losing home mark.

All of this makes this my NFC Game of the Year.

Buffalo is out of the playoffs for the 13th consecutive year. But it's wrong to assume Buffalo won't have anything to play for in this matchup. Jobs are at stake. This is a division rivalry matchup.

Miami doesn't have a strong enough offense to lay this big of a number and Buffalo's defense isn't nearly as bad as last week's 50-17 score might indicate. Prior to losing to Seattle, the Bills had held their last four opponents to 15, 18, 20 and 14 points. The Dolphins have failed to reach 280 yards of total offense in seven of their last 10 games. Only twice in their last seven games have the Dolphins exceeded 20 points.

Buffalo and Miami met in Week 11. The Bills held the Dolphins to just 184 yards in winning 19-14. The Dolphins are 1-2 ATS as home favorite. They have been terrible in that role through the years covering just 21 percent of the time since 2003.

The Bills have the edge at the skill positions. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown twice as many touchdowns as Ryan Tannehill. Stevie Johnson is the best wide receiver on either team and C.J. Spiller is better than Reggie Bush. It's a plus for the Bills if injured center Eric Wood is able to return.

Despite giving up 45 sacks and Mason Crosby missing at least one field goal in eight straight games, the Packers have gone 8-1, 7-2 ATS.

The Packers are getting healthier and draw one of the league's weakest teams, Tennessee. This game is made far worse for the Titans because they are traveling into cold weather on a short week following their 14-10 Monday night win against the Jets.

The Jets are terrible, too, but the Titans just managed to squeak past them at home despite a plus 5 turnover advantage.

Now the Titans, a warm-weather team, are facing a late December day in Green Bay with the temperatures expected to be in the 20's. The Titans haven't played a cold weather game in three years. The last time they did was against New England - and they got buried, 59-0.

The return of star linebacker Clay Matthews last week was huge for Green Bay. Matthews makes everyone around him better. The Titans are down four starting offensive linemen plus underrated tight end Jared Cook. Tennessee's only healthy offensive line starter is Michael Roos, who is having a down season.

Some people don't believe in laying double-digits in the NFL. Don't get caught up in any rules like that. The Packers have the explosive offense to put up big numbers against much better defenses than the Titans. The timing of this matchup - a horrendous situational spot for Tennessee - and the Titans' cluster injury problem in the offensive line should ensure Green Bay winning by more than two touchdowns.

Just a couple of years ago, I would give serious pause to trying to go over a total this high. That thinking is old-fashion now in today's high-scoring, protect-the-quarterback, favor-the-offense style that the NFL favors and supports. To be honest, I'm surprised this total isn't higher.

Streaky Tony Romo is hot and he's going against one of the worst defenses of all time last week not withstanding. Despite shutting out Tampa Bay last Sunday, the Saints still rank last in total defense surrendering 433.3 yards per game. New Orleans rates second-to-last in rushing defense AND passing defense.

Romo is averaging 346.4 yards passing at home, the second-best mark in NFL history. Dallas is averaging 29.5 points in its last six games. The return of running back DeMarco Murray, who has scored in each of the last three games after returning from an ankle injury, has been a huge help to Romo.

The Saints are going to put up a big number, too, in this matchup. Drew Brees broke out of a rare slump last week with a four-touchdown game against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have the worst pass defense in the league, but Dallas has lost its best inside linebackers and is vulnerable up the middle. The Cowboys also have injuries in their secondary. Brees has passed for at least 298 yards in nine of the Saints' 14 games.

Brees is helped, too, by the long awaited emergence of Mark Ingram. The former Heisman Trophy winner has averaged 5.6 yards in his last 28 carries and has to be accounted for by Dallas with its run defense severely hindered by a season-ending injury to linebacker Sean Lee.

So both teams have balanced offenses right now, are led by elite quarterbacks and going against vulnerable defenses on a fast track.

Matt Ryan is back on track. The Falcons still have motivation needing a win here to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Lions' vulnerable secondary can't handle the Falcons' high-tier passing attack featuring Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

The Lions have lost six in a row. There is no guarantee they will even come to play after rolling over dead this past week against Arizona. Even if the Lions do come to play, they don't know how to close games. They are the biggest choke artists in the league having blown three double-digit leads.

The Lions have a startling lack of discipline, which is reflected in a large number of penalties and stupid plays. Their strengths are stopping the run and throwing the ball. Atlanta's major weakness is stopping the run, but the Lions lack a strong ground game to take advantage of that.

This is a cheap number considering how much better the Falcons are than the Lions.

The Jets get far more publicity, but with injuries to Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes they are not better than Tennessee.

My matchup analysis rates the Titans as the superior team on a neutral field. Throw in home-field and the Titans are worth backing at this low number.

Both teams are run-oriented. The Titans have the better run defense, though, and Chris Johnson rates far ahead of New York's plodding duo of Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell. New York ranks 29th in run defense. Johnson has had four games of rushing for more than 125 yards in his last 10 games.

The Titans also have the better quarterback with Jake Locker over Mark Sanchez and the better wide receivers. The Jets have the weakest wide receiving group in the league.

The Titans also rate an edge on special teams and their defense has improved.

Pittsburgh is the better and more desperate team. Dallas is terrible at home. How terrible? Try 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games, including 0-6 ATS this season. Dallas also has a poor history in December failing to cover seven of the last nine times.

The Steelers were caught overlooking a San Diego squad that rose from the dead to deal them a stunning 34-24 home loss last week. That was the Steelers' worst game of the season. Expect a much better effort and result. The Cowboys, on the other hand, could have trouble focusing as the reality of linebacker Jerry Brown's death hits home.

The Steelers just assumed they could whip the Chargers at home with Ben Roethlisberger back. They will be much more focused here. Roethlisberger is one of the elite quarterbacks because he upgrades everyone around him including make Mike Wallace relevant again. Dallas has surrendered 971 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns in its last four games facing only one really good quarterback, Robert Griffin III. The other three quarterbacks were rookies Brandon Weeden, Nick Foles and second-year man Andy Dalton.

The Cowboys have a leaky offensive line and their most dangerous receiving threat, Dez Bryant, has a serious finger injury that is going to hamper his performance if not keep him out. The Cowboys' run defense has suffered, too, losing both of their inside linebackers, including the highly talented Sean Lee.