Rating: 2 Units

The Astros despite their loss last night, have been playing pretty well winning 5 out of the last 8 games since their return from the All-Star break. In 5 of the wins, 4 of which they defeated their opponents by at least 2 runs. Expect the Astros to bounce back against one of the worst teams in the MLB and especially during games that are played during the day. The Athletics have lost close to 85% of the games that have been played during the day, losing 39 out of 46 games. It is also important to note that the Astros had won 9 straight games against the Athletics before losing yesterday. As the price for the ML is a little steep, I expect the Astros to win on the road in dominant fashion and win by at least 2 runs. 

Rating: 2 Units

Texas has home-field advantage but the injury to Seager, who sprained his thumb in Friday’s game, could impact their lineup. Neither pitcher has been great of late as both have ERAs north of seven in their last three starts while exhibiting control issues. Perez has just one win in his last eight starts coming into this game and has posted an ERA of 6.25 over that span while allowing nine homers in 40.1 innings. He’s also barely gotten over a 1:1 K:BB ratio in that span with 21 strikeouts against 20 free passes in that stretch. That doesn’t bode well against a Dodgers team that is loaded with power and who isn’t afraid to take a walk. Los Angeles wears down Texas and comes up with a win here to clinch the series.

Rating: 2 Units

San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has been lights out since late May. The Detroit Tigers have the unenviable task of trying to solve Musgrove when they face the visiting Padres on Sunday in the finale of a three-game series. Musgrove (9-2, 3.16 ERA) is 8-0 in his last 10 starts. He's only allowed 12 earned runs during that stretch, spanning 61 1/3 innings -- good for an ERA of 1.76. Musgrove has been very stingy in three July starts. He held the Los Angeles Angels to one run and three hits while striking out 11 on July 4. He then tossed six scoreless innings while striking out seven against the New York Mets on July 9. In his first post-All-Star break appearance, Musgrove gave up one run and five hits while striking out seven in six innings at Toronto on Tuesday. Detroit is expected to turn to right-hander Alex Faedo (1-4, 6.98), who allowed seven runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on July 7 in his most recent outing.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros are 8-0 against the A's this season and have won seven of those games by multiple runs. A's starter Paul Blackburn in his last three outings (two starts), is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP, seven walks and nine strikeouts over 11.2 innings of work. Blackburn makes his seventh career appearance and seventh start against the Astros in this contest. He is 0-4 with an 11.25 ERA, a 1.833 WHIP, six walks and 14 strikeouts over 24 innings of work in those outings. Blackburn is 5-11 with a 6.41 ERA, a 1.538 WHIP, 40 walks and 106 strikeouts over 132 innings in 28 career appearances, 27 starts, at the RingCentral Coliseum. Astros starter Cristian Javier has a 7-1 record including a dominating win over the A's in May. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates lost to the Angels on Friday to fall to 19-29 on the road. Meanwhile, the Angels improved to 28-22 at home. The Angels have won four straight, overall, while the Pirates have lost 10 of their last 12. The Angels will turn to Reid Detmers on Saturday, who has struggled on the road, but has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home. The Pirates are sending Bido (1-1) to the mound for his seventh start of the season. He is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts through 27 2/3 innings pitched. In his last outing on Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, the righty tossed 2 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits. The 27-year-old has a 5.00 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings over seven games this season, while allowing a batting average of .266 to opposing hitters.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona was first in the National League West for a big chunk of the first half of the season but has fallen to second place trailing Los Angeles by two games. Arizona has lost five of its last seven. Cincinnati is battling for first in the National League Central with the Milwaukee Brewers and the Reds play well against National League West opponents, winning seven of the last 10. Cincinnati's lineup, which is 8th in runs scored, will take advantage of a below-average pitching staff for Arizona that is 24th in team ERA and 21st in batting average allowed. Cincinnati starting pitcher Brandon Williamson has pitched well in each of his last three outings. The left-hander has given up eight hits and four runs in 14 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

-  The implied probability of a win from the Astros is 72.5%.

-  Valdez has a 2.76 ERA and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 18 games this season, while 

   giving up a batting average of .227 to his opponents.

-  Athletics have won in 27, or 27.6%, of the 98 contests they have been named as odds-on 

   underdogs this year.

-  Houston is one of the most-disciplined teams at the plate this season, ranking fifth with an average of 7.8 strikeouts per game.

Rating: 2 Units

-  Atlanta is 52-22 (70.3%) when favored by -120 or more this season.

-  Braves offense has the best slugging percentage (.495) and ranks first in home runs hit (182) in 

   all of MLB. They have a collective .269 batting average, and are fourth in the league with 875 

   total hits and second in MLB play scoring 537 runs.

-  Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)

Rating: 2 Units

-  The Nationals have posted a record of 50-44-0 against the spread this season.

-  So far this season, Giants starter Wood has not recorded a quality start.

-  The Nationals have the fifth-best batting average in the majors (.261).

-  Giants come in after finishing a long series in Cincinnati with SF's bats going very cold in the 

   final two games.

Rating: 2 Units

-  A's have lost in each of Harris's last five appearances.

-  Athletics have an implied victory probability of 38.9% in this matchup.

-  Athletics are last in MLB with a .221 batting average.

-  France has seven quality starts under his belt this season and is 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA 

Rating: 2 Units

-  Bassitt has against the Padres, going 0-2 in three starts against them.

-  Padres have won seven of their last 11 games. 

-  Snell has a 2.80 ERA and 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a 

   batting average of .198 to opposing hitters.

-  Blue Jays have lost four of their last seven home games.

Rating: 2 Units

-  Alex Cobb has a 2.82 ERA overall for SF but over 4.00 away and in day games.

-  Reds rookie lefty Andrew Abbott has an ERA near 2.00 at home and in day games.

-  Abbott has had three appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero 

   earned runs.

-  The Reds are 6-2 in Andrew Abbott's starts with both losses coming to the 

   Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

The San Diego Padres remain an inconsistent squad. They were looking good before the break but lost the last three games in Philly this past weekend. The Blue Jays are hot, winning eight out of their last ten games including a sweep of the Diamondbacks. Furthermore, Padres’ starter Yu Darvish has not been a good pitcher to back. The veteran has squandered 18 runs in his last 27.1 innings pitched. Darvish especially has issues on the road where he has an ugly 5.52 ERA. Blue Jays’ starter Jose Berrios is delivering, allowing just one run in his 12.1 innings pitched on the month. The Jays have won in eight of his last ten starts.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston right-hander Brayan Bello isn't close to arbitration eligibility, yet his impressive pitching has the Red Sox already thinking about offering the second-year player a contract extension. Bello is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA this season, and he has been even more impressive lately, going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his past six starts. He is scheduled to pitch this afternoon in Oakland in the rubber game of a three-game set against the Athletics. Opposing Bello will be Oakland left-hander Ken Waldichuk (2-6, 6.66 ERA). With the exception of a three-batter hiccup by opener Joe Jacques on Tuesday, the Red Sox have pitched brilliantly in the first two games against the A's, winning 7-0 on Monday before falling 3-0 in the rematch. Bello is 2-0 in July, having beaten the visiting Texas Rangers before the All-Star break and then the host Chicago Cubs in his first start back. The Red Sox offense has really come alive as of late as well and Boston has the highest OPS versus opposing southpaws since July 1st. Additionally, they the following numbers,  .264 BA/.349 OBP/.422 SLG/.771 OPS against left-handed pitchers and .269/.341/.448/.789 in day games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates, who are going with a lineup heavy with rookies as the season has gone sideways, have lost five games in a row and nine of their past 10. Pittsburgh batters have managed a total of nine hits in the first two games against Cleveland while striking out 23 times. In the series finale, Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.65 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pittsburgh left-hander Rich Hill (7-9, 4.76). Civale has been brilliant in three July starts with a 1.50 ERA and two walks and 10 hits allowed over 18 innings. Hill has lost four of his past five decisions. The 43-year-old lefty owns a 6.43 ERA over his last four starts, with 26 hits and 10 walks yielded in 21 innings. Pittsburgh is 2-12 this month and has scored an MLB-low 235 runs since April 30.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers have won four of their last six games and three of their last four home games and have scored 20 runs in their last three home games. They’ve crushed right-handed pitching this season and Bradley has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 16 runs in his last three starts. He gave up five runs in his lone start against the Rangers last month and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Rays have won three of their last four games, but they’ve lost three of their last five road games. Even though they’ve done a good job batting against right-handers this season, they will struggle offensively in this game because Eovaldi has done a good job on the mound for Texas, especially at home where he hasn’t given up a run in two of his last three starts.

Rating: 2 Units

The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Baltimore Orioles in game 2 of their series on Tuesday night. Pitching for the Dodgers is Michael Grove, who has a 1-2 record with a 6.89 ERA. His percentiles are not exactly appealing, as he ranks in the lower end for most categories. He currently sits in the 15th percentile for xBA, 15th percentile for xSLG, 34th percentile for K% and 45th percentile for hard-hit rate. In games that he pitched for more than 3.0 innings, he has allowed 4+ runs on 6 of 9 occasions. There shouldn’t really be much of a reason to doubt the talented Orioles offense in this particular matchup. Pitching for Baltimore is Tyler Wells, who has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Unlike Grove, Wells has solid statistics regarding his percentiles. He ranks in the 78th percentile for xBA, 64th percentile for K% and 86th percentile for BB%. Through his last 8 starts, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any. The Dodgers have been hot lately, but Wells may just be the answer to slow down their bats. Simply based on the pitching discrepancy that could be at hand in this matchup

Rating: 2 Units

Today, Cleveland left-hander Logan Allen (3-2, 3.47 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (9-4, 3.31). Keller, a first-time All-Star after establishing himself as the Pirates' ace this season, pitched one inning in the Midsummer Classic last week. He will have gone a week without pitching since that appearance as Pittsburgh chose not to use him in its first four games following the All-Star break. Before the break, Keller gave up one hit in seven scoreless innings on July 8 at Arizona but did not get a decision as the Diamondbacks came back for a 10-inning win. In his only career appearance against Cleveland, on Sept. 25, 2020, Keller did not get a decision after giving up one run and no hits, with eight walks and three strikeouts, in five innings. Allen, a 24-year-old rookie who has never faced the Pirates, could earn his way back into the rotation after the Guardians went with the bullpen game on Monday.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers haven't been all that bad lately, winning 15 of their last 29 games and 4 of 6 against the Royals this season. The Royals are a horrible 14-33 at home and average the second fewest runs per game. Jordan Lyles is on the mound for KC today. Lyles comes in with a sky high 6.42 ERA as the Royals are 1-16 in his starts. He will be opposed by Matt Manning who sports a respectable 3.72 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Tigers should limit a Royals lineup that averages only 3.66 runs per game with Matt Manning pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a lead. 

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (7-6, 4.31 ERA) will look for the offense to be more consistent when he makes his 19th start of the season today. In his most recent outing, Smyly allowed four runs on six hits in four innings against the New York Yankees on July 8. He walked four and struck out three in a 6-3 loss. Smyly is 2-0 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) against the Nationals. He earned a win at Washington on May 1 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball. Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore (4-7, 4.42 ERA) will oppose Smyly after going just 1 1/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds on July 6. He surrendered no runs and one hit and struck out one before a rain delay cut his outing short. In his previous start, Gore was shelled for seven runs and six hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 1. Gore is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts versus the Cubs. He lost to Smyly and Chicago on May 1, when he yielded four runs on seven hits in four-plus innings. The Nationals have lost seven of their past 10 games, including an 8-4 loss on Sunday in the rubber game of a three-game road series against the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay's offense has been one of the best in the league this season and will need to be strong to keep pace with the Rangers, especially if McClanahan struggles for the second-straight start. They average 5.6 runs per game, while averaging .257 and 1.5 home runs per game. Yandy Diaz (.323 average) has been a mainstay getting on base, whole Randy Arozarena (59 RBI) continues to be feared. Texas offense has helped to alleviate pitching problems time after time and their ability to generate run production has been instrumental towards their run to first place. The power has been key for this group and everything starts with Adolis Garcia (24 homeruns, 79 RBI).

Rating: 2 Units

The Guardians have a solid pitching staff when healthy but are lacking in power and timely hitting at the plate. Cleveland is 15th in team batting average with .250 but drops to 22nd in on base percentage with .314 and 27th in slugging percentage with .375. Therefore it is not surprising the Guardians are 27th in runs scored with 369.  Both offenses are struggling and Pittsburgh has failed to score 5 runs in eight consecutive games, meanwhile the Guardians have scored a combined 10 runs in their previous 4 games. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins’ southpaw has been incredible this season with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.53 xERA in 19 starts while limiting hitters to just a .225 xBA. He went into the break throwing a shutout in 3 of the 4 outings, and that included against this Cardinals team. Luzardo went 6 innings and allowed only 5 hits while striking out 8 St. Louis hitters. The Cardinals sent Matthew Liberatore back to Triple-A earlier this week so Mikolas getting the start here on short rest thanks to the suspension of Friday’s game could put pressure on an already struggling bullpen. Miles Mikolas is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the game. He was absolutely terrible in the first month of the season, bounced back with a 1.89 ERA in 6 starts in May, and then went back to his old self in June. 

Rating: 2 Units

Gerrit Cole hasn’t met the Rockies since 2019, and he’s 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in seven career starts against Colorado. Cole, who’s enjoying a nice season, has thrown 12.1 innings at Coors Field, allowing six runs (four earned) on 13 hits in the process. I trust Cole to pitch well in Denver this Sunday, so give me the Yankees -1.5. On the other side, it’s hard to trust Chase Anderson, who’s yielded five or more earned runs in each of his last four outings. The current Yanks know Anderson well and are 17-for-79 with a whopping seven home runs against him. The current Rockies are only 16-for-87 with one home run versus Gerrit Cole. 

Rating: 2 Units

Justin Steele is one of the most underappreciated and undervalued pitchers in the game. In 16 starts in the first half of the season, Steele accumulated a 2.56 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. He allowed more than 3 runs in only 2 of his 16 starts which is absolutely insane to think about. In 9 of his 16 starts, Steele has surrendered 1 run or less. But perhaps the most dangerous part of Steele in this matchup is that he has not thrown more than 1 inning in more than 10 days. His last start of the first half of the season was on July 5 against the Brewers, and then he appeared in 1 inning during the All-Star Game. That means Steele is very well-rested and ready to give 100 pitches if needed.

Rating: 2 Units

A pair of left-handers will match up today when Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 4.24 ERA) and Arizona's Tommy Henry (5-1, 3.75) take the mound. Kikuchi has fanned 96 batters in 93 1/3 innings but has been touched up for 22 homers in 18 starts. He has served up 111 in 559 2/3 innings over his four-plus major league seasons with the Seattle Mariners (2019-21) and Blue Jays. Kikuchi, 32, received a no-decision in his last outing when he gave up four runs and eight hits over five innings against the Chicago White Sox on July 6. He has allowed nine runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two turns after allowing nine total over his previous six outings. The Japan native is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts against the Diamondbacks. Evan Longoria (1-for-2) has homered against Kikuchi. Henry has won four consecutive decisions since last losing on May 11 to the San Francisco Giants. Over his last four outings, the 25-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA. Henry last pitched on July 5 when he blanked the New York Mets on two hits over six innings. He received a no-decision.

Rating: 2 Units

The pitching matchup for the series finale features Atlanta left-hander Kolby Allard (0-0, 4.22) against Chicago right-hander Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.30). Allard will make his third start of the season. He pitched five innings against Cleveland on July 4 and allowed three runs on four hits, one walk and three strikeouts. Allard pitched one inning of relief against Tampa Bay in the final game prior to the All-Star Game and allowed two runs in a 10-4 loss. Allard began the season on the injured list with an oblique strain. He was recalled to make a spot start on June 28 and has remained in the rotation. Cease will be making his 20th start of the season and has not had a decision since May 23, a stretch of eight starts, when he beat the Cleveland Guardians. In his most recent appearance on July 7 against St. Louis, Cease pitched six innings and allowed five runs on 11 hits and eight strikeouts. 

Rating: 2 Units

The more encouraging part for Miami might have been third baseman Jean Segura's 3-for-4 performance. He was batting .197 on July 3 but now has multi-hit outings in four of the past five games. Miami's starting pitcher will be left-hander Steven Okert (3-0, 2.43) in what will be his first career start after 201 relief appearances. So this shapes up as a bullpen day for the Marlins as Okert hasn't posted more than two innings in any of his 37 outings this season. Okert is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA all-time against Baltimore.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners know Michael Lorenzen well and are 13-for-49 with a couple of home runs and 13 RBI against Detroit’s All-Star. Last season, Lorenzen emerged victorious in the Los Angeles Angels’ 8-7 win at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners tortured him for three earned runs on four hits and two walks across five innings, and Lorenzen gave up a solo home run to Julio Rodriguez and a two-run dinger to Carlos Santana, who’s now with the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the other side, the current Tigers are 5-for-16 with one home run and three RBI against George Kirby, who’s 1-1 in two career starts against Detroit. The Tigers hold an 87 wRC+ against the righties in July, so Kirby should fare well in this matchup. The Mariners own a 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and 124 wRC+ versus the southpaws in July

Rating: 2 Units

Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has dominated the Los Angeles Angels in his two previous starts this season. He's scheduled to face them again tonight in the middle contest of a three-game series in Anaheim, Calif., and he'll be coming off six days of rest this time around. Valdez (7-6, 2.51 ERA) hasn't pitched since allowing two runs and five hits in six innings of 3-2 win against the Seattle Mariners last Saturday. Like many of the Angels, Detmers was sharp in the month of June, going 1-1 in five starts with a 2.05 ERA. Detmers (2-6, 4.31) was also solid in his first start of July, limiting the Arizona Diamondbacks to two runs in six innings. He took a step back in his most recent outing last Saturday, however, surrendering seven runs and six hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has made five career starts against the Astros and owns a 1-2 mark and 4.62 ERA. The Angels had a few positives come out of their 7-5 loss to the Astros in the series opener on Friday night, their season-high sixth straight defeat.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has the best lineup in baseball, and it hasn’t mattered whether it’s been a lefty or righty pitcher. But more recently, the Braves have been doing better against right-handers. Since June 1, the Braves have a 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is by far the best in baseball. But they also rank 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and ISO against right-handers in that time. All that tells me Lance Lynn could be in for a very, very long day. And after Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has the 9th highest ERA in the last 30 days. 

Rating: 2 Units

Left-hander James Paxton (5-1, 2.73 ERA) goes to the hill today when he makes his 11th start of the season. Paxton has been stellar over his past seven outings, going 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. In his most recent start, Paxton allowed two runs on six hits in six innings during a victory against the Oakland Athletics on July 8. He walked one and struck out three. Paxton has never faced the Cubs. Right-hander Marcus Stroman (9-6, 2.96 ERA) will get the nod for Chicago as he attempts to get back on track. Through his first 16 starts this season, Stroman went 9-4 with a 2.28 ERA. In three outings since then, he is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA, most recently surrendering four runs on four hits in five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers on July 6. The Red Sox hit righties well, and they are hitting from 1 through 9 and all up and down their order.

Rating: 2 Units

Brayan Bello was spectacular for the Boston Red Sox in his first 14 starts of the season, posting a 3.04 ERA across 80 innings while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts. The time he allowed more than 2 was when Tampa Bay scored 3 off him in 6 innings of work. His hard-hit rate ranks in just the 30th percentile, but his elite ground-ball rate has contributed to a 57th-percentile barrel rate and only 8 home runs allowed. The right-hander has cut down his walk rate from last season as well. His sinker-heavy approach should play well in his matchup today against the Cubs. Chicago ranks just 22nd in wOBA and 23rd in SLG against right-handed sinkers this season. In the last 30 days they are just 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching overall. Bello uses 3 other offerings in his arsenal, and his 3.77 FIP ranks 28th among 83 pitchers this season with 80 or more innings of work. 

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta (60-29) has won three of its last four games, 12 of its last 14, and has won 11 consecutive series dating back to Arizona, June 2-4. The Braves lead the NL East by 8 1/2 games over the Miami Marlins. The White Sox (38-54) have lost seven of their last nine games and are 0-3-1 in their last four series. They have dropped 15 of their last 23 and lost 18 of their last 27. Chicago is in fourth place in the American League Central, eight games behind Cleveland. The pitching matchup for the series opener features a pair of right-handers -- Atlanta veteran Charlie Morton (9-6, 3.43 ERA) vs. Chicago's Michael Kopech (3-7, 4.08). Kopech has already been tagged for a career-high 17 home runs in just 86 innings pitched this season. Morton, 39, has won his last four starts. In his last appearance on Friday, he pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed one run on four hits, two walks and six strikeouts in a win over Tampa Bay.

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee ace and All-Star pitcher Corbin Burnes (7-5, 3.94 ERA) will start the series opener Friday against Cincinnati. Burnes has a pair of quality starts against Cincinnati in his previous two outings, including on July 7 when he held the Reds to three runs on two hits over six innings in a 7-3 Milwaukee win. Burnes is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances against Cincinnati, including six starts. Burnes became just the fifth player in Brewers history to be named to three straight All-Star games, joining Don Money, Dan Plesac, Ryan Braun and Josh Hader. But the last-minute replacement for Spencer Strider did not pitch in Tuesday's game in Seattle. The Reds counter with another right-hander in Graham Ashcraft (4-6, 6.28), making his team-leading 17th start of 2023. In his last start on July 5 in Washington, Ashcraft snapped a personal three-game skid and won for the first time since May 28, scattering seven hits and one run over six innings in Cincinnati's 9-2 win. Ashcraft is winless in four career starts against Milwaukee, going 0-3 with 10.13 ERA. He was tagged for a career-worst 10 runs -- all earned -- on nine hits over four innings in a 10-8 Milwaukee win on June 3 in Cincinnati.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitching for the Giants will be Ross Stripling, who has not exactly been impressive thus far. Stripling is 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He ranks in the lower end of the league for most percentiles including xBA (12th percentile), K% (23rd percentile), xSLG (5th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (14th percentile). He most likely won’t pitch too far into this matchup, but some damage could be done in the short span that he is on the mound. Pitching for the Pirates will be Rich Hill, who has a 7-9 record with a 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. While these numbers may not exactly be horrible, I expect more regression from Hill. He currently has an xERA of 5.64 and — similar to Stripling — ranks in the lower end of most percentiles. He sits in the 10th percentile for xBA, 10th percentile for xSLG, 35th percentile for K% and 40th percentile for BB%. In the last 4 games Hill has given up 15 runs and 23 hits.

Rating: 2 Units

The Padres will turn to right-hander Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.87 ERA) today against Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 2.84). Darvish, 36, admitted to feeling "close to 100 percent now" after he returned to the lineup last Friday following a bout with a viral illness that kept him sidelined since June 21. He saw his winless stretch extend to three games, however, despite allowing three runs in five innings of a no-decision against the New York Mets. Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia however this season has a 6.16 road ERA. Like Darvish, Sanchez followed two straight losses with a no-decision in his last trip to the mound. Sanchez permitted one run on four hits in six innings at Tampa Bay. Sanchez, 26, has yet to face the Padres in his career.

Rating: 2 Units

The All-Star Game has been very low scoring. In 2022, the American League won by a score of 3-2 which cashed the under. Looking at a bigger sample size, the average number of runs in an All-Star Game during the AL’s 9-year winning streak is 6.89. That would come in just under this year’s total of 7.5. Additionally, 10 of the last 14 All-Star Games have ended with 7 or fewer runs. Only once during that span did a game ever reach double-digit runs (14 runs in 2018), so the games have always been closer to staying under the total than going over the number. It’s easy to see why – these are the best pitchers in baseball. Each pitcher knows that they’re only going to get an inning, so there’s no use in nipping at the corners and being careful with certain hitters. Each pitcher is going to go out there and try to get as many strikeouts as they can before the inning is over.

Rating: 2 Units

To say that New York Mets right-hander Max Scherzer has dominated the San Diego Padres throughout his 16 seasons in the majors would be an understatement. In 18 career starts against the Padres, Scherzer is 7-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 0.910 WHIP and a .185 opponents' batting average while averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. The results have been even better in San Diego, where he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA across seven starts. In his past 10 starts, however, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 3.45 ERA, although he gave up four runs on five hits in six innings on Tuesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix. Musgrove knows the feeling of beginning the season slowly. He was 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his first five starts. Over his last eight starts, however, Musgrove is 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Consider that the under is 19-6-1 in Padres last 26 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Giolito (6-5, 3.50 ERA) is pitching effectively as he gets set to face the St. Louis Cardinals, and with a contract that expires after the season, he could be attractive trade bait as the White Sox sink in the American League Central standings. St. Louis will start an enigma of its own in left-hander Steven Matz (0-7, 5.02). Sent to the bullpen in late May after season-opening struggles in the starting rotation, Matz takes the rotation spot of Adam Wainwright (shoulder), who recently landed on the injured list. While Matz stumbled Wednesday in Miami, allowing two runs and three hits in 2 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 1.98 ERA over his first seven relief appearances, and he hasn't surrendered a home run since May 24. Overall, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Additionally, he has a 7.14 ERA on the road

Rating: 2 Units

The Kansas City Royals continue to struggle. They have lost five games in a row entering Saturday including losses in the opening two games of this series. Royals' starter Ryan Yarbrough is seeing his first action since May. The veteran has not been able to find a groove as seen in his 6.15 ERA. The Cleveland Guardians have won two of their last three series. Guardians’ starter Shane Bieber should dominate in this one. He just registered six shutout innings against the Royals in late June and has silenced the rivals throughout his career, posting a dazzling 2.80 ERA and an undefeated 6-0 record. Beiber is sporting a 3.02 ERA at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves and Rays play the final game of their 3-game series on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta has won the first 2 games and has the best record in the majors going into the All-Star break. The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have won 12 of their last 13 games. Tampa Bay started the season hot but has fallen off and is 0-7 in the last 7 games. The Rays will try to get a win by bringing out Zach Eflin. He has a 3.24 ERA through 16 starts with a 9-4 record. He is a strikeout pitcher who has a 26.1 K percentage, and only a 3.9 BB percentage, which is in the top 3% in the league. He will be opposed by Bryce Elder for the Braves, who has an incredible 2.45 ERA through 17 starts with a 7-1 record. The Braves are 6-2 as an underdog this year. Atlanta is the hottest team in baseball, so it is very hard to bet against them. They are 12-1 in their last 13, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-2 in their last 7 against Tampa Bay.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boston Red Sox have clicked on all cylinders over their first two games against the Oakland Athletics this weekend. Entering today's series and unofficial first-half finale, Boston has won four straight games and seven out of eight, while scoring 27 runs in just the last three games. The Red Sox have put together seven consecutive games with at least 10 hits after pounding out 15 in Saturday's 10-3 triumph. Cora is expected to use Tayler Scott (0-0, 7.71 ERA) as an opener less than a week after his Red Sox debut. He was acquired from the Dodgers in a trade late last month. While with the Seattle Mariners in 2019, Scott made one relief appearance against the Athletics, surrendering two unearned runs over two innings. Left-hander JP Sears (1-6, 4.09) is scheduled to make his team-leading 18th start for the Athletics, making him their only pitcher to remain in the rotation all season.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is going with All-Star Spencer Strider (10-2, 3.66 ERA), who leads the majors with 155 strikeouts. Tampa Bay is turning to rookie Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27), who has 76 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. Neither starter has yet to face the opposition. Strider is one of a franchise-high eight players to be selected to the All-Star Game. The 24-year-old has won each of his past four starts, fanning 34 in 24 2/3 innings in that span. He gave up three runs (two earned) with nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins on Sunday. For the Rays, Bradley has been going through some growing pains. He surrendered one run on three hits in six innings of a 7-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on June 21. But in his past two starts, the 22-year-old rookie has struggled. Bradley allowed seven earned runs in four innings in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 27, and five runs in 3 1/3 innings in a no-decision at the Seattle Mariners on Sunday.

Rating: 2 Units

The Texas Rangers took the series opener over the Washington Nationals in a comfortable 7-2 win last night, extending the Nationals losing streak to 5 games. Considering Washington has lost 7 straight home games with Jake Irvin starting on the mound, no way that this streak to end today. Irvin is below-average in several categories with a 1.45 WHIP and 5.15 ERA at home this year. He posts a low strikeout rate (6.71 K/9) and high walk rate (4.36 BB/9). If Irvin has a short outing, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in the MLB with a 4.67 ERA. Against the #1 scoring offense in the league, that’s a recipe for disaster. Washington has lost 15 of 16 at Nationals Park since June 3. The Nationals, who are in last place in the National League East, are an NL-worst 13-32 at home. Texas, which is in first in the American League West, is 25-19 on the road this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Toronto Blue Jays appear to be heating up as the All-Star break approaches. They have won four straight heading into their road game against Detroit this afternoon. Toronto right-hander Kevin Gausman will start the second game of the series. Gausman (7-4, 3.04 ERA) leads the American League with 146 strikeouts and has only given up nine home runs in 18 starts. He has posted 13 quality starts, most recently on June 27 when he held San Francisco to one run and three hits while striking out 12 in six innings. In his last outing, Gausman gave up two runs and five hits while notching seven strikeouts against Boston. However, he labored at times, requiring 98 pitches to get through five innings. Gausman, who is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 career starts against Detroit, will be making his last start prior to the All-Star Game. The Tigers will turn to Matt Manning, who is making only his fifth start of the season, and only his third start since spending some 2 months on the IL. He gave up 4 runs to the Blue Jays in April, and Manning has been below average in general so far in his career. Toronto has the far superior bullpen (at least in the back end), and we saw what happened on Friday when the Tigers’ bullpen got involved. 

Rating: 2 Units

Both pitchers have been solid all season. Gray hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this year. With a 2.50 ERA and 2.84 FIP, Gray posted 0 earned runs and 2 hits allowed in a start against this same Orioles lineup just 6 days ago. Wells is one of only two pitchers in the league with a sub-1 WHIP (0.90). While that is certainly impressive, his consistency might be even more stunning. Wells has gone 6 consecutive starts giving up exactly 2 earned runs. Furthermore, both pitchers have a solid strikeout rate with Wells at 9.03 K/9 and Gray at 9.22 K/9. As long as these pitchers continue their long string of consistent quality starts, the under will be the play. Consider as well, that the under is 10-4 in Twins last 14 overall. 

Rating: 2 Units

There's not much about the Padres' pitching staff that needs to change. The team is sixth in ERA this season. They have a reliever group that's sixth in ERA, 10th in left-on-base percentage, and third in groundball rate. San Diego's rotation has mostly been solid too, although that doesn't apply to Yu Darvish lately. Over his past five starts, the veteran has coughed up 21 runs in 26.0 innings, good for a 7.27 ERA. In four of those five starts, he was responsible for at least four runs. The Mets tagged him for five runs earlier this season, a game that the Padres lost. Consider that the over is 20-7-1 in Mets last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati starter, Andrew Abbott dominated the Milwaukee Brewers last month in his major league debut for the Cincinnati Reds. He hasn't cooled off since. Tonight, Abbott will look to help the Reds post a sixth straight win and pad their National League Central lead over the second-place Brewers in Milwaukee. The 24-year-old Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) has been a marvel while allowing five runs, including four on four homers, 20 hits and striking out 42 over 37 1/3 innings in six starts since debuting June 5. The left-hander set personal bests with 7 2/3 innings and 12 strikeouts while giving up a solo homer and three other hits during Sunday's 4-3 win over San Diego. Cincinnati is 6-0 in games pitched by Abbott, who has the second-lowest ERA among any Reds pitcher through his first six career starts. Tom Browning had an 0.95 ERA spanning the 1984 and 1985 seasons. The Brewers have been terrible against southpaws this season (.209/.304/.311 against lefty starters and .223/.304/.357 overall), too. They are favored here by virtue of Corbin Burnes, the 2021 Cy Young winner, being on the mound, but he has a 4.00 ERA and 4.22 FIP this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves come in at 25-5 in their last 30 games while scoring nearly seven runs per game in that span. They are first in home runs per game, second in runs scored, eighth in fewest strikeouts per game, and seventh in steals. Simply put, the Braves put the ball in play, they drive the ball when they do, and they can kill you with speed also. Braves' starter Morton is 3-0 in his last three starts and has seen his K/9 rate rise over 11 in that span. Morton struggled through 2022 mainly due to his inability to get swings and misses. This season, he has raised his K/9 rate back up to elite levels and the results have shown in wins and his ERA. The Rays come in looking extremely vulnerable for the first time all season. They've lost five games in a row, are 4-7 in their last eleven games, and are hitting just .228 in that time. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Philadelphia Phillies, who have won a dozen straight road games, will visit the Miami Marlins today to start a weekend series. Philadelphia's road winning streak - which includes a 3-1 win over host Tampa Bay on Thursday -- is tied for the second-longest in franchise history, trailing only a 13-game run in 1976. Today, Miami will start reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.93 ERA). The right-hander is 6-8 with a 3.79 ERA in 17 career starts against the Phillies. Alcantara has struggled all year in his encore to his Cy Young performance, posting ERAs of 5.04 in April, 4.85 in May, 4.59 in June and 7.20 so far in July. Philadelphia will start right-hander Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.03 ERA). Wheeler, who finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in 2021, has been dominant in his career against the Marlins, going 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 20 starts.

Rating: 2 Units

On the mound for the Marlins will be reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has been a near opposite of who he was last year, as he currently has a 3-7 record with a 4.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His percentiles are nothing impressive either being that he ranks in the lower end for most. He is currently in the 23rd percentile for xBA, 28th percentile for K%, 46th percentile for average exit velocity and 39th percentile for hard-hit rate. The total for this game is set at 7.5. Alcantara has had 17 starts this season; 12 of them have cleared this total. Additionally, consider that the over is 13-6-1 in Marlins last 20 vs. National League East.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies have won 11 straight road games, and they have extended the Rays' losing streak to a season-high four games. The Rays have been the most dominant team in the American League, but they have leveled off of late, dropping six of their last 10. Rays will go with right-hander Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 1.15 ERA) as an opener. He is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in four career appearances vs. Philadelphia, all in relief. The Phillies will start left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 3.26). In his latest start, a 2-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals on Friday, the 26-year-old gave up two runs, one earned, in six innings. Sanchez has done a good job on the mound for the Phillies, giving up eight runs in four starts. He didn’t give up a run in his only road start of the season and Philadelphia’s bullpen is playing well in recent games.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia is averaging 4.52 runs per game. Their .259 batting average is ninth in the league. Their .323 on base percentage is 14th, while their .421 slugging percentage is ninth. Nick Castellanos leads the Phillies with a .312 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 22 home runs, while Alec Bohm leads the team with 55 RBI. Tampa Bay is averaging 5.56 runs per game. Their .262 batting average is fourth in the league. Their .334 on base percentage is also fourth, while their .459 slugging percentage is third. Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with a .313 batting average, while Randy Arozarena leads the team with 16 home runs and 58 RBI. Consider at the over is 19-7-5 in Phillies last 31 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto will aim to stay perfect against Chicago this season while Guerrero, the Jays' All-Star first baseman, tries to stay hot. He keyed Tuesday's 4-3 win in the season opener with a go-ahead, two-run home run to the opposite field in the eighth inning. Toronto has outscored Chicago 24-5 while winning each of the first four meetings between the teams. White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn, who was slated to oppose fellow righty Jose Berrios on Wednesday night, instead will face him in the opener of today's twin bill. Lynn (5-8, 6.47 ERA) will try to avoid a second loss to the Blue Jays this season. He took the loss in an April 24 game at Rogers Centre in Toronto, spacing four runs and five hits in five innings with three walks and four strikeouts. In 11 career appearances against Toronto, including 10 starts, Lynn is 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA. Berrios (8-6, 3.74) defeated Chicago the day after his teammates roughed up Lynn. Berrios pitched seven shutout innings on April 25 while allowing four hits with one walk and nine strikeouts. Berrios is 13-6 with a 3.26 ERA in 23 career starts against Chicago, with 145 strikeouts in 140 2/3 innings. Additionally, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA during the day. Lynn is 2-4 with a 7.22 ERA at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The A’s are starting Hogan Harris, who has made several starts this season. Harris has a 5.16 ERA, and he has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts. For the Tigers, Michael Lorenzen will take the mound. The Tigers have lost his last 6 starts and Lorenzen has given up 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 outings. The Tigers tend to leave him out there, though, and I think that should lead to some runs. Even with bad offenses leading the charge, both starting pitchers are vulnerable. Neither bullpen is good, either, and Oakland specifically has the worst bullpen in baseball. There should be plenty of opportunity for runs in this one. Consider that the over is 20-8 in Tigers last 28 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati is 13-1 over its past 14 road games, while the Nationals are 1-13 in their past 14 home games. This afternoon, rookie Brandon Williamson (1-2, 5.56 ERA) will make his 10th major league start for the Reds. The left-hander was solid his last time out, allowing two runs on three hits in five innings during a loss to the San Diego Padres on Saturday. He struck out five and walked one while throwing 86 pitches. Washington will counter with left-hander MacKenzie Gore (4-7, 4.48 ERA), who will be looking to rebound from his worst outing of the season. Gore, who revealed that he was dealing with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand, allowed seven runs on six hits and three walks, lasting just 2 2/3 innings in what ended up as a 19-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. De La Cruz, Steer, India, Matt McLain and others have jumpstarted this run by the Reds and they find themselves poised to be a buyer at the trade deadline, likely kicking the tires on some starting pitching.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta can do no wrong right now, with excellent pitching, hitting, defense, and complimentary baseball when one of those things falters. Mike Soroka hasn't been sharp on the mound, but the Braves offense should tee off on Cal Quantrill, who has been worse with a larger sample size. These bullpens can match up, eliminating an edge Cleveland has over almost everyone. In a slugfest, the Braves beat Cleveland 95% of the time this year. That's what should tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies are hoping to turn their season around but the Astros look to make a push in the division and control this game at home. The Astros should drive in runs at will with Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, and the rest of the lineup making hard contact and powering the ball against the Rockies pitchers to easily circle the bases. The Astros should limit a Rockies lineup that averages only 4.42 runs per game with J.P. France building off a scoreless outing and delivering multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead. The Astros should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win at home.

Rating: 2 Units

In today's rematch, Seattle will hand the ball to Logan Gilbert (5-5, 4.19 ERA) with an eye on the break-even mark. The 26-year-old right-hander is coming off a 4-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, charged with all four runs in six innings. However, Gilbert is 4-1 on the road this season with a solid WHIP and a K/9 rate of over nine per contest. San Francisco plans a holiday parade of relievers on a bullpen day. Keaton Winn (0-1, 3.50 ERA) likely will serve as the opener. Yastrzemski's left-handed bat will be missed against the hard-throwing Gilbert in this spot. In addition, the Giants have four starters all questionable for this matchup with the most significant being Estrada and Conforto.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has not played well on astroturf, losing each of their last seven on that surface and struggles against interleague opponents that have a winning record, losing 42 of the last 62 in that situation. Tampa Bay has won each of the last five games versus Philadelphia played at home and the Rays have won each of the last seven overall against the Phillies. Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola has been hit hard in three of the last four starts, allowing a grand total of 14 runs in 24 innings, giving up four runs or more in three of the four starts. Tampa Bay starting pitcher Zach Eflin has had three consecutive solid outings allowing seven runs in 19 innings with Tampa Bay winning two of the three. Tampa Bay combines the 5th best ERA, with the third-best team batting average. The Rays have scored the second most runs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have been miserable on the road this season with a record of just 13-29. Freeland has been a part of those struggles with an ERA over five away from Coors Field. Freeland is winless over his past eight starts, with an 0-4 record, a 7.15 ERA and a .932 opponents' OPS. He has allowed seven home runs over 39 innings during that span. The Astros have rebounded from a rough stretch playing without MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez to win seven of ten games leading into this series. The Astros are hitting .270 as a team over the past ten games with 37 extra-base hits including 15 home runs. While France has struggled at home this season, he has the good fortune of battling a Rockies team that averages just 3.74 runs on the road this season. Additionally, France was solid in his last two home starts, allowing a total of three runs in 13.2 innings of work.

Rating: 2 Units

Hendricks struggled in his first start in May after returning from a tear in his shoulder. After his first game back, Hendricks has been money ever since. He’s allowed only 6 runs in his last 26.1 IP, helping him earn his outstanding 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Despite the fact that it’s a small sample size, Hendricks has been even better on the road. He holds a 1.77 ERA on the road with opposing batters hitting just .114 against him. Milwaukee starter, Miley’s numbers are relatively similar. With a 3.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, Miley has been cooking, allowing just 2 earned runs in his last 15.0 IP. Both teams are bottom half of the league in batting average, with the Brewers coming in at 29th, above only the A’s. Consider that the under is 38-17-3 in Cubs last 58 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds are dealing with injuries to Ben Lively and Hunter Greene and Brett Kennedy has been recalled from the minor leagues to either start or pitch bulk innings. Kennedy has not pitched in the MLB since the 2018 season as a member of the Padres. Kennedy issued a poor 6.75 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in 26 innings in his lone MLB season. The bullpen has been mediocre, reporting a 4.07 ERA on the season. Washington starter Corbin's numbers aren't strong, recording a 4.84 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP accompanied by a 5-9 record in 96.2 innings pitched on the season. Consider that the over is 16-5 in Reds last 21 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The current Mariners are 7-for-38 with four extra-base hits, a home run, and six RBI against Logan Webb, who holds a shiny 2.31 ERA at Oracle Park in 2023. But Webb has allowed seven runs (six earned) over his last two home starts (14 IP; 1-1 record), and the Mariners are hitting the right-handers well in the last two weeks, posting a 123 wRC+ and .807 OPS across 273 plate appearances. The Mariners’ bullpen had a bad June, posting a 5.38 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 4.0 K/9, and 1.5 HR/9 (4.94 FIP). In the last ten days, Seattle’s relief pitching has amassed a hideous 7.97 ERA, 5.25 FIP, and .373 opposing BABIP across 20.1 innings of work. Consider that the over is 37-18 in Mariners last 55 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

The Twins will give the ball to their ace, Joe Ryan, on Monday night against the Royals. Ryan is 8-5 in 16 starts this season including 11 quality starts. He has allowed 79 hits in 96.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 3.44. Ryan's K/9 rate is a solid 9.8 and his WHIP is 0.97. At home, Ryan is 5-2 in seven starts including four quality starts. He has allowed just 32 hits in 46.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.70. His K/9 rate stays steady at 9.8 and his WHIP lowers to a sparkling 0.79. Ryan is 1-0 against the Royals this season after going six innings and allowing three hits and one run back in April. Minnesota took two of three from the host Baltimore Orioles in a series in which it allowed just three runs. However, The Twins scored just two total runs over the last two games. Consider that the under is 21-8-3 in Twins last 32 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Atlanta Braves will try to run their winning streak to nine games when they open a three-game series at the Cleveland Guardians tonight. Atlanta also has won 16 of its past 17 games and 23 of 26 to take a nine-game lead in the National League East. Atlanta will put its winning streak in the hands of right-hander Bryce Elder (6-1, 2.44 ERA), who enters the series opener with the second-lowest ERA in the majors. Elder is 2-0 in his past three starts with a 1.42 ERA. Atlanta's offense is one of the best in baseball and their experience will allow them to take advantage of the youthfulness on the other side. Additionally, the Guardians are 1-6 in their last seven games against NL East opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

St Louis has struggled against teams with a winning record, losing 11 of the last 14 and the Cardinals have lost five of the last six on the road against a team with a winning record. Miami has won 14 of its last 12 at home against the team with a losing record and overall at home, Miami has won 10 of its last 13. St Louis starting pitcher Miles Mikolas has been hit hard in each of the last four starts allowing 30 hits and 18 runs in only 24 ⅔ innings with St Louis losing each of those four games. In contrast, Miami starting pitcher Braxton Garrett has had four consecutive strong outings allowing three runs in 23 ⅓ innings with Miami winning each of the four games. Miami has won 8 of Garrett's last nine starts.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington will start rookie Jake Irvin (1-4, 4.72 ERA) in the opener. Since having his turn skipped in the rotation, Irvin is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a no-decision at Seattle in his last outing. Cincinnati, meanwhile, looks to continue an unlikely winning streak. Luke Weaver (1-2, 6.96) will get the nod for the Reds, who have won six straight Weaver starts. The right-hander has been very inconsistent over that span -- allowing seven runs once and five twice -- but each time the Reds have done enough to come out on top. Weaver hasn't picked up any of those wins, as his last decision -- a win -- came on May 9 when he beat the New York Mets.The Reds have won four of their last five, including a series-clinching 4-3 victory over the San Diego Padres on Sunday.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have been interesting to say the least, alternating wins and losses to close out June. The wins saw the offense put up impressive numbers, while the losses were ugly in almost every way. As a team with middling run production despite a generous home field, that makes sense. Colorado does not command the strike zone, with poor strikeout and walk rates. They don't hit homers or swipe bases either. When a team relies on stringing together hits, they become prone to inconsistent production. Pitching in Coors isn't fun for anyone, including the home team. Connor Seabold actually fares better at home this season, and he can showcase why in this game, even if a 5.24 home ERA isn't a ringing endorsement. Neither is the team's 1-6 record spanning Seabold's last seven starts. Regardless, he gets to face a weak offense, which can get him back on track. Consider that the under is 42-20-3 in Rockies last 65 interleague games.

Rating: 2 Units

St. Louis starter, Montgomery has done a good job on the mound in recent weeks but hasn’t been as sharp at home where he gave up five runs in his last two starts. The Yankees will counter Sunday with ace Gerrit Cole, who originally was slated to start Saturday. Yankees manager Aaron Boone pushed Cole's start back after Friday's game was rained out. Cole (8-1, 2.78 ERA) will look to rebound from his shortest outing of the season. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cardinals.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta captured the first two games of the series, 16-4 on Friday and 7-0 on Saturday. The Braves have won seven straight games and 15 of their last 16. Atlanta has won eight of nine games against the Marlins, who they now lead by eight games in the NL East. Alcantara (3-6, 4.82 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Spencer Strider (9-2, 3.73), the major league strikeout leader who is trying to become the fifth pitcher to reach double-digit wins. Braves Strider comes in with a strikeout rate of over 15 at home this season and a WHIP under one. He will be backed up by the most dominant offense in baseball in June, with the Braves hitting over .300 as a team in June and belting 61 home runs.

Rating: 2 Units

Twins right-hander Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.67 ERA) looks to continue the stinginess evidenced by Minnesota starters in the series thus far. Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober combined to limit the Orioles to one run and five hits over 13 innings in the first two games. The Orioles have lost four straight and 16 of their last 31 and will try to avoid being swept for the first time this season today. It might not be so easy for Baltimore to get back on track, though. Gray has the fourth-best ERA in the American League and has allowed no more than three runs in each of his 16 starts this season, though the Twins have only managed an 8-8 record in those contests. Last time out, Gray allowed three runs on seven hits over 6 2/3 innings of a loss to the Atlanta Braves. He struck out five and walked one. Gray is 6-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 12 career starts versus Baltimore. Left-hander Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.18) gets the nod for the Orioles. Irvin will be making his seventh start and ninth appearance of the season on Sunday. He is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA in his past four appearances.

Rating: 2 Units

So far this weekend, the Baltimore Orioles’ offense has vanished. As the O’s and Twins finish up a series on Sunday, the Twins have won the first two games and are sending one of their best pitchers to the mound. The Orioles have amassed a total of only 7 hits through the first two games in the series, and 1 total run. Either you bank on their struggles continuing, or you bet on the bounce-back positive regression game. Consider that the under is 11-5-1 in Orioles last 17 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Guardians are playing well at the moment and they’ve won seven of their last ten games. They are currently tied with Minnesota in the AL Central standings and will try to increase their division lead with a win over the Cubs, which will give them their eighth win in their last 11 games. Cleveland is averaging 4.01 runs per game. Their .249 batting average is 16th in the league. Their .314 on base percentage is 22nd, while their .376 slugging percentage is 26th. Chicago is averaging 4.54 runs per game. Their .247 batting average is 17th in the league. Their .327 on base percentage is 10th, while their .399 slugging percentage is 17th. Consider that the over is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.04 ERA) is scheduled to start for the White Sox today. Cease made five consecutive solid starts in June but emerged with five straight no-decisions. He wound up with a 2.20 ERA, 42 strikeouts and 10 walks in 28 2/3 innings last month. He did not allow more than two runs in any outing, all of which wound up in being one-run games, with Chicago winning three of them. The fifth-year major-leaguer has dominated the A's in three career meetings, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 18 innings. The 27-year-old's only previous start in Oakland saw him throw six shutout innings, allowing three hits, in a 4-1 win last July. Oakland is flat-out the worst team in the league and is playing the part again following their June hot streak. 

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore starter, Bradish (4-3, 3.75 ERA) is aiming to win a third consecutive start. The right-hander is 2-1 with 2.37 ERA over his past three starts, striking out 16 and walking four in 19 innings. On Sunday, he held the Seattle Mariners to two runs on two hits over seven innings. He struck out seven and walked two while throwing a season-high 103 pitches. Bradish retired 13 of the last 14 batters he faced in a 3-2 win. Minnesota will start Bailey Ober (4-4, 2.97 ERA) on Saturday. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 3.89 ERA over his past seven starts, with 38 strikeouts and eight walks in 39 1/3 innings. In his latest outing, Ober allowed three runs on five hits over six innings of a no-decision against the Detroit Tigers on Sunday. Minnesota is just 18-23 on the road while the Orioles are nine games over .500.

Rating: 2 Units

Texas starter, Eovaldi (9-3, 2.82 ERA) is attempting to become just the second Texas pitcher since 2013 with double-digit wins prior to the All-Star Game. Lance Lynn accomplished the feat last in 2019, going 11-4 before the break. Eovaldi had a no-decision in his last start at the New York Yankees on Sunday, allowing two runs on four hits with two walks and five strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings. Against the Astros, Eovaldi is 2-3 with a 4.43 ERA in eight starts over his career. He earned a win in his previous start against them on Aug. 1, 2022, allowing two unearned runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings as a member of the Boston Red Sox. For the Astros, Brown (6-4, 3.62) is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the Rangers. He has dominated, allowing just two unearned runs on eight hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts over a combined 13 innings. Brown faced the Rangers earlier this season on April 15, allowing two unearned runs on five hits with one walk and five strikeouts over seven innings in an 8-2 win.

Rating: 2 Units

Michael Wacha is on the mound in this one. Wacha missed his last start due to a minor injury and is ready to go. He limited the Giants to only two runs in six innings in his previous start, resulting in another no-decision in a game the Padres lost. The veteran right-hander has been dominant, registering a minuscule 1.54 ERA this month, and is sporting a stellar 2.90 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP complemented by a 7-2 record in 80.2 innings pitched. Wacha posted six shutout innings against the Reds last month and has a stellar 2.57 ERA and a 12-3 record in 133 career innings. Consider that the under is 21-8-1 in Padres last 30 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays are 5-1 in their last six meetings with the Mariners. They're 5-0 in their last five Friday games and 4-1 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 7-21 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.The Mariners hit poorly, even at home (.228 BA/.309 OBP/.383 SLG/.692 OPS). The Rays hit .260/.328/.439/.768 on the road and .268/.335/.478/.813 in night games. To cap it off, the Rays are 13-2 in games McClanahan has started. 

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota has struggled to put runs on the board of late with just 11 runs in their last five games. Lopez has struggled after a strong start to the season, posting just one win in his last 10 starts entering this contest. Minnesota is just 17-23 on the road this season and stands two games below .500 on the season while dropping out of first place in the weak AL Central. Baltimore sputtered against the Reds but they are a good team at home, posting a 25-16 mark at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are good offensively, which is something that the Twins, despite their collection of talent, have failed to put together consistently.

Rating: 2 Units

The New York Mets have struggled of late losing six of the last eight overall and when playing at home, New York has lost four of the last five. San Francisco has played very well over the last 3 weeks, winning 13 of the last 16. On the road, San Francisco has been victorious in 10 of its last 11 and during June the Giants are 7-3 over the last 10 played. New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has a 6.19 ERA and has struggled throughout the first half of the season. Carrasco has allowed four runs or more in his 10 starts this season. In his 10 starts, Carrasco has allowed 11 home runs and has issued 23 walks in a total of 48 innings pitched. The Mets have struggled on the mound as New York's team ERA is 4.59 and opposing hitters average .250 against New York pitching which is 20th.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston starter, Paxton is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, two walks and 18 strikeouts over 16.1 innings of work. Paxton makes his 11th career start against the Blue Jays in this contest. He comes in 5-3 with a 4.53 ERA, a 1.329 WHIP, 26 walks and 48 strikeouts over 55.2 innings of work against them. Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA, a 1.136 WHIP, 18 walk and 28 strikeouts over 34.1 innings in six career starts at Rogers Centre. Toronto starter, Berrios is 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, four walks and 17 strikeouts over 17.2 innings of work. Berrios makes his 12th career start against the Red Sox in this contest. He is 1-5 with a 4.15 ERA, a 1.415 WHIP, 19 walks and 66 strikeouts over 65 innings of work against them. Berrios is 16-5 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.126 WHIP, 35 walks and 182 strikeouts over 183 innings in 31 career starts at Rogers Centre. Consider that the under is 10-2 in Red Sox last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Padres will have Seth Lugo open the series. Lugo allowed three runs in five innings against the Nationals last time out and was hit with the loss. The veteran right-hander missed over a month due to injury but has been solid upon his return earlier this month. Lugo is sporting a 4.01 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP accompanied by a 3-4 record in 51.2 innings pitched on the season. He limited the Reds to only one run in six innings in a 7-1 win last month and has a minuscule 1.16 ERA and a 2-1 record in 23.1 career innings against the Reds. Reds starter Ashcraft produced his best performance of the season against the Padres, limiting them to one run in six innings in a game the Reds won. Consider that the under is 24-9-1 in Padres last 34 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

The Philadelphia Phillies are facing off against the Chicago Cubs in game 3 of their series on Thursday night. The Phillies are listing Taijuan Walker as their starting pitcher who currently has a 4.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Walker’s percentiles are quite concerning, as he ranks in the lower end for a majority. On the mound for the Cubs will be the right handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has an impressive 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. While his percentiles show that he is not exactly a big strikeout pitcher, they do show that he limits hard hit balls and keeps them in the park (1 home run allowed through 6 starts). He also doesn’t give up many free bases as he is in the 74th percentile for BB%. Hendricks has the ability to control a game and go deep into the game as well, which is something many others cannot do.  

Rating: 2 Units

Adam Wainwright's farewell tour with the St. Louis Cardinals has not gone as hoped. He has given up a ton of hits per start, has lost the ability to put batters away, and has coughed up five home runs in his last three starts. Wainwright has been even worse at home this season, without a quality start in five starts and an ERA over seven. Houston starter France has been very consistent for the Astros with five quality starts in his nine starts overall. On the road, he's been even better with three quality starts in five this year and an ERA that dips under two and a half this season. France has done a much better job than Wainwright in keeping runners off base this season with fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. The Astros power bats should have a field day with Wainwright on the mound.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets' miserable June continued on Wednesday, when Blake Perkins laced a tiebreaking single in the sixth inning to help the Brewers to a 5-2 win. New York, which went 101-61 last season, has gone 7-17 this month to fall into 12th place in the National League. The Mets are 19th in the majors in OPS (.714) and 25th in ERA (4.59). Scherzer earned a win on Saturday when he allowed two runs over six innings as the Mets beat the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2. He is 3-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts) against the Brewers. Scherzer lost at Milwaukee on April 4, when he yielded five runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. Houser last pitched on Friday, when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief in a 7-1 win over the Cleveland Guardians.

Rating: 2 Units

White Sox starter Lance Lynn hopes to improve on an awful season as he's allowed 69 runs in 90 innings pitched. Moreover, with a .449 expected opponent Slugging Percentage, a 10.1 Barrel Percentage, and a 4.69 expected ERA, opponents are making hard contact and powering the ball against Lynn to easily drive in runs. Angels starter Patrick Sandoval has shown flashes this year with a 34.8 Hard-Hit Rate but has struggled, allowing 39 runs in 75.2 innings pitched. In addition, with a .276 expected opponent Batting Average, a 16.9 Strikeout Percentage, and a 4.59 expected ERA, opponents are making contact and putting together strong plate appearances against Sandoval to easily drive in runs. Consider as well, that the over is 6-1-1 in Angels last 8 during game 4 of a series.

Rating: 2 Units

Although you can’t put a lot of faith in the starters on the mound today, these offenses have been incredibly unreliable this season. The Guardians are 27th in runs scored (4.02 runs per game) and 22nd in OPB (.311). Meanwhile, the Royals are 28th in runs scored and rank dead last in wOBA (.305). Although Greinke’s numbers haven’t been impressive, his home vs away splits are drastic. He has a 7.04 ERA on the road and a 3.77 ERA at home, including just 11 earned runs in his last 5 home starts. I trust Greinke to have a solid outing in KC against an unreliable offense. Bieber hasn’t been great on the road, allowing 12 earned runs in his last 2 road starts, but facing this lackluster Royals offense is a solid opportunity for him to get back on track. Consider that the under is 13-5 in Guardians last 18 during game 3 of a series.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tampa Bay Rays are in Arizona to face the Diamondbacks in game 2 of their series on tonight. Pitching for the Rays will be Zach Eflin, who has notable numbers through this point of the season. He currently has a 3.35 ERA and an impressive 1.03 WHIP. His percentiles back up these numbers too, as he sits in the higher end of most categories such as xBA (74th percentile), xSLG (69th percentile), K% (63rd percentile) & BB% (95th percentile). The Diamondbacks are definitely talented, but Eflin has the tools needed to potentially slow them down. On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be Zach Davies. He has struggled thus far, having a 1-4 record with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. His percentiles are the near opposite of Eflin as he sits near the bottom of the league in most categories. Additionally, the Rays are 8-2 in their last ten vs. a team with a winning record while the D-Backs are 21-53 in their last 74 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Rating: 2 Units

Detroit starter, Joey Wentz, has been horrific this season with a 6.72 ERA and a 5.47 xERA paired with a 5.46 FIP. He also has just a 63 ERA+, so all signs point to Wentz not having a good game. He’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in June and will have to travel to the hitter’s paradise known as Globe Life Field for today’s start. This will be the southpaw’s first trip to Arlington this season, but it won’t be his first start against the Rangers. At the end of May, Texas knocked Wentz around in Detroit for 7 hits in 4.1 innings but managed to only get 1 run across – an odd occurrence from a powerful lineup. It only gets worse for Wentz too because he’s been worse on the road than at Comerica Park this year. In 6 starts away from home, the lefty is 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average.

Rating: 2 Units

While Houston has struggled in their last ten games, going just 3-7, they have been more consistent on the road overall this season. The Astros are hitting .250 on the road this season but have shown off their power away from home, hitting 113 extra-base hits away from home this year in 37 games. They have hit 22 home runs in their last 15 road games and should be able to do some damage against Cardinals' starter Mikolas who has had trouble putting hitters away via the strikeout this season. The Cardinals are just 23rd in runs allowed per game this year and are allowing nearly a run more per game at home this season than on the road. The Cardinals are also just 4-7 in their last eleven home games after last nights win. The Cardinals have also lost each of Mikolas' last four appearances. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets will start rookie Kodai Senga who has a 3.52 ERA through 14 starts with a 6-5 record. Senga has been a solid pitcher especially for a rookie but his run support has been dwindling. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 4 of Senga’s last 6 starts. He will be opposed by Wade Miley for the Brewers. He has a 2.91 ERA through 10 starts with a 5-2 record. He has been fantastic in his last 3 starts allowing 3 runs or less. With these 2 starters on the mound, and both teams struggling at the plate, I like the under in this game. The Brewers are bottom 3% of the league in xBA and only average 4.10 runs per game. The Mets have better hitting statistics throughout the season but their record over the last 20 games says otherwise. Consider that the under is 39-17-4 in Brewers last 60 vs. a team with a losing record.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are starting very questionable starting pitchers. For the Braves, Kolby Allard will make his season debut. He’s not a terribly good pitcher, and he probably wouldn’t be making a start if not for the total decimation of the Braves’ pitching staff. He is fortunate that the Twins are just about the worst team in the league against left-handed pitching. Still, Allard should not be in the game long, and I think if they are going to hit anyone, the Twins should hit a below-average lefty making his season debut. The Twins are going with Kenta Maeda who gets to face what might be the nastiest offense in baseball, and the Braves are also the hottest team in the league right now. It’s going to be a long day for Maeda. Consider that the over is 35-17-3 in Twins last 55 interleague road games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have lost eight of their last 10 games and four of their last seven home games. They have struggled offensively and scored 11 runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggle will continue in this game because they haven't hit the ball well against left-handers and Kershaw has done well in the mound for the Dodgers in recent starts, giving up four runs in his last four starts. He gave up one run in his last two starts against the Rockies and will keep their offense in check once again. Consider that the under is 20-7-2 in Dodgers last 29 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Rating: 2 Units

Through the first three months of the season, Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has ranked among the top contenders for the American League Cy Young Award. Valdez (7-5, 2.27 ERA) will try to further his case Tuesday when he faces the Cardinals on Tuesday to open a three-game series in St. Louis. He has the second-best earned-run average among the league's qualified pitchers, trailing only Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan (2.23 ERA). Valdez is coming off a 4-2 victory over the New York Mets on June 20, which snapped Houston's five-game losing streak. He allowed the two runs on four hits over eight innings while striking out nine batters and walking just one. Valdez is 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his past six starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 15 starts overall. The Astros have a little momentum after winning Sunday night, while the Cardinals are jet-lagged after playing in London. 

Rating: 2 Units

Ryan is an excellent pitcher, but he's been defeated more often than not recently, losing three of his last five outings. In two of those starts, he gave up five-plus runs and two long balls. If he's anything like that on Tuesday, the Braves will jump on him early, putting the Twins in a deficit they're unlikely to recover from. Minnesota hits .221/.300/.374/.674 on the road (37 GP) and .226/.303/.399/.702 in its night games (41 GP). Its' June splits (.229/.293/.401/.694) fall short of the mark, too. Elder has held eight of his last ten opponents to two or fewer runs, and six of those foes were held to one or no runs.

Rating: 2 Units

The San Diego Padres are in need of wins and I expect them to rebound in this series against a Pirates squad that has been a disaster this month. The Pirates now look similar to last year. They recently lost 10 in a row and have just one win in their last 13 bouts due to a slumping offense. Padres’ starter Yu Darvish has shined against the Pirates in his career, sporting an outstanding 2.63 ERA and a 4-2 record in nine career meetings. Pirates’ starter Rich Hill has squandered six runs in his last 10.2 innings pitched and has a 4.62 ERA at home. The Padres have been stellar against lefties this season, posting a .778 OPS compared to a .695 OPS against righties.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners have won two of their last three games and five of their last seven home games. They are playing very well offensively at the moment and scored 27 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because Williams has struggled on the mound, especially on the road where he has given up 16 runs in his last four starts. With the Nationals also having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down Seattle’s hot bats. The Nationals have lost seven of their last nine games and five of their last eight road games. They have struggled offensively and scored only eight runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Castillo has done a good job on the mound for Seattle, giving up nine earned runs in his last four starts. He gave up only two runs in his last three home starts and will keep Washington’s offense in check.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have to fly in to kick off this series, which eliminates any rest advantage to speak of here. Cease goes on an extra day of rest for the White Sox as they chose to send Tanner Banks to the hill in Sunday’s finale against Boston. With that said, he hasn’t been great with extra rest in his career, posting a 10-8 mark with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.363 WHIP, 104 walks and 219 strikeouts over 186.1 innings in 36 starts on five days rest. Detmers has been sharp his last few turns through the rotation and the Angels have been more consistent offensively this season. Playing at home with a lineup brimming with confidence is enough to give the Angels the advantage in this contest.