Rating: 3 Units

Chris Bassitt’s turn rolls around once again. This winner of many consecutive starts for us — so many we’ve lost track trying to count them — and his first place A’s teammates are road underdogs at Yankee Stadium, where the home team is averaging only 3.76 runs per game. Bassitt was probably a $2.00 favorite the last time we used him, right? The A’s have tended to score more runs on the road than in their home park: 4.93 away vs. 4.30 in whatever they are calling their ballpark in Oakland these days. Bassitt has been as steady as…well, something very steady with his 3.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, 91-21 K-BB in 86 2/3 innings. German’s overall numbers aren’t far off from Bassitt’s, but the Yankees ain’t hitting much for any of their pitchers and Bassitt is tending to last longer in his starts than German, who was knocked out in the fifth inning of his last start, at Philadelphia, after giving up 10 hits and 7 runs. He hadn’t made it past 5 2/3 innings in three starts before that. A’s hitters who have faced German are 13-for-37 against him (.351) with 4 home runs and 12 RBI.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have beaten ace-like starters Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Brandon Woodruff already on this homestand which began on Monday and is currently
4 wins, 0 losses — a major departure from their ridiculously horrible, Hall of Shame road record of 5-27. Why can’t they beat Corbin Burnes, too? Burnes’ ERA and WHIP are among the best in the game among starters: 2.27 and 0.85. He has 102 Ks and only 10 BBs in 63 1/3 innings pitched. But despite those numbers, his Won-Loss record is a mere 3-4 and the Brewers are 5-6 when he starts. Coors Field has a habit of turning fine visiting pitching form into something less than mediocre. If you say that the answer to the ‘Why shouldn’t they beat Corbin Burnes?’ question is ‘Because Antonio Senzatela is pitching for the Rockies,’ then you might have a good point. Senzatela requires a leap of faith but anyone who took that leap the last two times he started in this ballpark was rewarded with 6-3 and 7-6 wins, and 7 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball (in an eventual loss) in the prior home start before that.

Rating: 3 Units

Yesterday we noted that the White Sox were only 2-9 as the underdog and we went with Houston as the favorite. The Astros scored early and often against Dylan Cease for the expected win. Does this mean we should be on the favored White Sox — 37-16 when favored — tonight? Maybe it does. We’ll see. But we’re sticking with the Astros. Chicago lefty Carlos Rodon has been sensational with his 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. His last start was 7 innings of 1-hit, 1-run ball at Detroit, the worst-hitting team in the majors against left-handed pitching. Tonight, his assignment is against the best hitting team in the majors against lefties, at least via Batting Average. While the White Sox are known for winning a ton of games when the opponent starts a lefty (Luis Garcia of the Astros is not a lefty), it’s the Astros who have the best batting average against them: .286. As noted yesterday, Rodon and the White Sox staff have been facing a string of lower-scoring opposition over their last six series before making this stop in Houston, who leads MLB in runs per game (5.62, and 10 last night).

Rating: 2 Units

Mets’ lefty Joey Lucchesi looked good in two straight starts against the Padres — who let him go after last season. With the personal revenge mojo out the window, he now leaves a pair of pitcher’s parks — Petco and Citi Field — for a road game against an opponent that hits lefties better than righties. The Nationals’ Joe Ross has thrown 14 consecutive scoreless innings in his last two starts. Guess this had to happen eventually but with a guy whose full season ERAs have been 5.01, 5.06, 5.48 the last three seasons and is currently 4.19 after 12 starts in 2021, the other side would seem to be due to offset that scoreless streak with the runs necessary to play to Ross’ previously established typical performance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners beat the snot out of the Twins last night, winning 10-0. Seattle is now 19-14 at home, while Minnesota is 12-20 on the road. Somehow somebody who thinks they are a whole lot sharper than me figures Minnesota should be the favorite here tonight. Justus Sheffield will toe the slab for Seattle, and while his numbers aren't great, he has been his best at home. Sheffield is 4-1 with a 3.58 ERA in five home starts. The Twins hand the ball to Bailey Ober, and the 25 year old makes his fourth start of the season. He's been just average in his first three career starts. The Mariners are 7-2 in their last nine home games.

Rating:  2 Units

A couple o’ aces are on the hill in Dodger Stadium tonight, always a good potential set-up for a 2-1 ballgame. We’ll take 3-2. 4-3 would work, too. Clayton Kershaw bounced back from a couple of bad starts with 6 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball vs. Texas in his last start. It was a 12-1 game but the Rangers started Mike Foltynewicz, hanging onto a major league career by a thread. Tonight’s visiting starter, Zack Wheeler, from his last nine starts, has median numbers of 7 1/3 innings pitched, 4 hits allowed, 1 run allowed. Wheeler has a 2.29 ERA, 0.90 WHIP.

Rating: 2 Units

The DBacks are in a full blown free fall.  Just when it looked like they may actually win a game last night vs SF, they blew leads of 7-0 & 8-3 and lost 9-8.  They have now won just 5 of their last 40 games and they’ve lost 21 straight road games!  Last night’s game was as demoralizing as any of those losses and today will be a tough bounce back for Arizona.  They will send Merrill Kelly to the mound and we look for SF to have a big night at the plate.  Kelly has allowed 100 baserunners in just 75 innings this year and Arizona has lost the last 7 times he’s started.  His last win was way back on April 27th.  The Giants counter with Anthony DeSclafani who owns a solid 2.70 career ERA mark vs Arizona.  In his last 3 starts DeSclafani has allowed a total of 4 earned runs on 11 total hits.  He’s coming off a shutout complete game vs Washington on June 11th.    The Giants have won all 4 games vs the Diamondbacks this season by a combined score of 27-14.  Going back further, the DBacks have won just 5 of last 21 meetings with the Giants. 

Rating: 2 Units

Chris isn’t exactly Flexen his muscles out there on the mound this season with a 4.68 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. But his home ERA is 2.67 vs. a road ERA of 7.27. Opposing batters are hitting only .260 against him in this park, compared to .355 on the road. J. A. Happ had his World Series Game 7-like opportunity vs. the Yankees in his last start, didn’t do much with it: 5 innings of 8-hit, 4-run ball, only 2 Ks. From his last five starts, Happ’s median length is 5 innings, median hits allowed 8, median runs allowed 4. He has allowed 5 home runs in his last 10 innings (two starts). Happ’s BAA (Batting Average Against) on the road, where he has allowed 21 runs in 25 1/3 innings, is .308. The Twins’ bullpen is generally not his friend, but it has been kind to people who wager against Minnesota, who is a slight favorite despite their .394 winning percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Indians should probably be a bigger favorite at home against Baltimore. The Orioles have lost twice as many road games as they have won. Matt Harvey will toe the slab for the Orioles, and he's allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts. His numbers against Cleveland aren't great either. Cleveland's lineup has hit a combined .494 over 28 at bats against Harvey. The Indians hand the ball to Cal Quantrill, who is still looking for his first win. His ERA of  3.21 in 20 appearances suggests he is plenty capable of earning that W here. The Orioles are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets are 12-5 in their past 17 games and 12-2 in their past 14 home games. They also boast a major league-best 2.72 ERA from the rotation, and since David Peterson allowed four runs in 2 2/3 innings a week ago in Baltimore, their rotation has pitched to a stellar 0.89 ERA (three earned runs, 30 1/3 innings) while facing San Diego in a three-game series before facing the Cubs. Taijuan Walker (5-2, 2.07 ERA) started New York's string of impressive starts and will take the mound today. On Wednesday in Baltimore, he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings while striking out nine -- his most since Sept. 1, 2017 when he pitched for the Arizona Diamondbacks.  On April 20, he allowed three runs, two hits and six walks in 3 2/3 innings but since that rough start in Chicago he is 5-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his past eight starts.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nats and Pirates rank low in many offensive categories. In fact, they are #29 and #30 in runs scored, 3.75 and 3.46 per game. Say, 3.75 + 3.46 doesn’t even equal as much as 8.5! True. But Patrick Corbin is pitching and he ought to be worth a few more runs than usual to the Pirates. Just load up the lineup with righthanded batters — anyone off the street will pretty much do — as the guy has problems getting them out, which you wouldn’t think would be the case for a pitcher the organization signed to a 6-year, $140,000,000 contract in 2018. The guy will have enough money to buy all the homes on your street then build a parking lot on it, but he can’t make a quality start, not in his last five, anyway. Righthanded batters have a Batting Average, On-Base %, Slugging % and OPS of .312, .380, .550, .931 against Corbin this season. His overall ERA and WHIP are 6.21 and 1.51. Pittsburgh’s lefty Tyler Anderson has more respectable numbers: 4.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. But they are far from  upper echelon for a MLB starter and the Nats hit lefties okay, better than most.

Rating: 2 Units

Few starters are as imposing looking as the White Sox’ ’5”, 280 Lance Lynn, or can eat as many innings as Lynn, who almost always goes 6 or 7 and whose team has won 7 of his 11 starts this season. But the Rays’ 6’8”, 225 Tyler Glasnow can challenge Lynn in both departments, having gone 7 or 8 innings in four of his last five starts. Through 13 starts and 84 IP, Glasnow has 117-26 K-BB, a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Glasnow’s Innings Per Start and Strikeout Rate are better than Lynn’s. His team is 23-10 on the road and has won 23 of its last 28 games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs are coming off a three-game sweep of the hated Cardinals to put them in a tie with Milwaukee atop the NL Central. So, is it time to send it in on the Mets, a frequent move against the series-sweeping team in their next game? Eh, well, not so fast, my friends. Can’t do that every single time.  Remember ‘Spahn, Sain and pray for rain?’ The Mets have, ‘Degrom, Stroman, W alker and… Ahhhh! David Peterson!!! We need 11 runs!!’ Peterson, in his second MLB season, is the “Which Doesn’t Belong and Why” in the Mets’ rotation, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.51 WHIP after 11 starts. Peterson lasted 3 1/3 innings against the Cubs in Wrigley Field back on April 21 in a 16-4 loss. He exits a 10-3 loss in Baltimore last week in which he went 2 2/3 innings, after failing to get out of the first inning in a 7-6 loss in Arizona, a team that can’t buy a win lately. Jake Arrieta may not be Mr. No Hitter anymore, but we’re inclined to give the 12-season veteran and 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner the benefit of the doubt when teamed with the Cubs’ bullpen (2.59 ERA).

Rating: 2 Units

The streaking Chicago Cubs bid to complete a three-game sweep tonight when they host the reeling St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs posted an 8-5 win over the Cardinals on Friday and a 7-2 victory the following day to improve to 23-10 at Wrigley Field. Chicago has won five of its last six games to remain tied with the Milwaukee Brewers atop the National League Central. St. Louis has lost 10 of its last 12 games to fall back to .500 for the first time since April 28.  Cardinals starting pitcher Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21) will try to get his season back on track after allowing 15 runs in 4 2/3 innings over his last two starts. Back on May 3, Martinez threw eight scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since then, Martinez has failed to pitch deeper than the sixth inning in any start. His ERA in his last five starts is 9.97 ERA. He is 4-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 37 career appearances (17 starts) against the Cubs.

Rating: 2 Units

Getting rid of the dead wood who goes by the name of Albert Pujols, after being free of Mike Trout and his overrated presence, has helped to produce a winning record for the Angels during this time. Everyone knows that they mostly lost with those two in the lineup every day. Guys are getting opportunities and taking advantage. Pitchers are pitching better since easily distracted pitching coach Mickey Callaway got fired. One of those guys was not Alex Cobb yesterday. He stunk for us. But the Angels won the game because the longer the game goes, the less chance Arizona has of winning it. They are now 11-18 in their home park and ask a pitcher with no real Major League cachet — 13 hits, 8 walks and 13 runs given up in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts — to help put smiles back onto their faces after they’ve lost 26 of their last 29 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Chris Bassitt Day has once again rolled around and although the number is higher than anyone would like it to be, we’ve lost track of how many consecutive Bassitt starts have been winners for us, including the one that was greater than a $2.00 to 1 job. Bassitt 4-hit Arizona over 7 innings in his last start. He now has an 86-18 K-BB in 81 innings, a 3.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Royals are asking a guy who wasn’t in their original starting rotation plans, who has allowed 14 hits and 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts — including 5 home runs — plus 4 walks, to outduel Bassitt, or at least hold things down before a bullpen duel. If Kris Bubic can do that, more power to him and the Royals.

Rating: 2 Units

Framber Valdez returns to the site of one the biggest wins of his young pitching career this afternoon when the Houston Astros face the Minnesota Twins in the rubber game of their three-game series in Minneapolis. Valdez (2-0, 1.47 ERA) was the winning pitcher in Game 1 of the 2020 American League Wild Card Series on Sept. 29 at Target Field when he replaced starter Zack Greinke and threw five innings of shutout relief in a 4-1 victory. The left-hander allowed just two hits and walked two while striking out five. Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in four career regular-season performances (one start) against Minnesota. The Twins, who are coming off a 5-2 victory on Saturday night, will counter with right-hander Michael Pineda (3-3, 3.46). Pineda is 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies have lost four of Aaron Nola’s last four starts and he has allowed more hits than innings pitched in the last two. Since a complete-game shutout on April 18, Nola’s ERA is 4.97. His overall ERA of 4.06 and WHIP of 1.21 are both higher than last season’s 3.28 and 1.08. The Yankees’ Domingo German: 3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, as the underdog backed by the better bullpen.

Rating: 2 Units

Twins starter, Berrios is 2-3 with an unsightly 6.43 ERA in five career starts against Houston. Alex Bregman is 4-for-7 with a homer against Berrios while Brantley is just 2-for-15. Astros right-hander Luis Garcia (5-3, 2.75) will be looking to win his sixth consecutive start. The 24-year-old Garcia has compiled a 1.86 ERA during the stretch while giving up five or fewer hits in each outing. He has served up just two homers in 29 innings over his past five starts after allowing six in his first 30 frames of the season. Garcia matched his career-high of eight strikeouts while beating the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. He gave up one run, three hits and walked two.

Rating: 2 Units

Alex Cobb came off the injured list to give up 4 hits in 5 innings during a 7-1 win vs. the Twins. The Angels gave him 9 days between starts and he responded by going 7 innings and allowing only 3 hits, 0 runs in a 4-0 win at Oakland. They gave him 7 days in between that and the next start, and he went 7 innings again, allowing only 3 hits in another win. They’ve given him another 7 days before this. Hey, when something works, you stick with it, especially when it’s for a team like the Angels where nothing usually works. Speaking of teams where nothing works, the Diamondbacks have sunk to MLB’s worst winning percentage (20-44, .313). Aside from their current road losing streak of 19 games, they are 11-17 in their home park. The Angels were 18-22 when Mike Trout got hurt. They are 1 game over .500 since. He is an overrated, analytics clown-fan player whose team has habitually lost a lot when he plays. All of those people would have figured the Angels to have an Arizona-like record with Trout out. Nope. Hasn’t happened. L.A. also caught a break when pitching coach Mickey Callaway was fired, not for baseball reasons. Team ERA has dropped from 5.20 to 4.11 since he got the boot.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates have the worst Hits Per Run ratio in MLB: 2.12 hits for every run scored. In the typical outing by Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes, the other side doesn’t get many hits. His median innings length in the last five starts is 6; the median hits allowed is 4. His ERA is 1.97, his WHIP 0.71. He has a 94-7 K-BB in 59 1/3 IP. Chad Kuhl would have to pitch the game of his life to beat him, probably, but the Brewers’ average of 6.92 hits per game is fewest in the National League and they have lost some Burnes starts because they supported him and relievers with only 0, 1, 0, 0, 4 and 1 run in those losses. In Burnes’ last two starts, they won 3-2 and 2-0.

Rating: 2 Units

Stroman (5-4, 2.41 ERA) is slated to oppose Joe Musgrove (4-5, 2.33) in a battle of right-handers. Stroman entered Friday with the 10th-best ERA in the NL while pitching at least six innings in each of his past six starts and in nine of 12 starts overall. Stroman earned the win against the Padres last Sunday when he allowed an unearned run over 6 2/3 innings in the Mets' 6-2 victory. Stroman is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against the Padres. Musgrove is 1-3 with a 6.11 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Mets.

Rating: 2 Units

That SOB Kershaw gave up 8 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings against the Braves when we heaped generous praises on him and backed him in his last start.  Forget about him! What a bum. He’d allowed 7 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings to the Giants before that, and he’s owned the Giants in his career. He’s probably headed for his familiar spot on the disabled list (and will no doubt pitch a no-hitter now that we’ve trashed him). Rangers starter Mike Foltynewicz has helped fuel Dodgers rallies in the past and the L.A. batters should be happy to see the ex-National Leaguer in their return home from a road trip. They’re 20-for-51 against Foltynewicz (better than .400!) with only 7 K and 9 BBs. Even Kershaw has 2 RBIs against him in 4 at-bats.

Rating: 2 Units

The long, black-bearded, gradually less-than-mediocre righthander called Matt Shoemaker is being sent back to the mound by the Twins following his 1/3 of an inning, 6-hit, 2-walk, 9-run start against the Royals a week ago, probably as Twins management collectively puts their hands together and bows their heads in solemn prayer that he manages 5 or 6 innings of 3-run ball on hard-hit line drives right at their fielders, and that some other team will be fooled into accepting him in a trade before the All-Star break. Shoemaker has been the gift that keeps giving — thus far with the ability to win only against last-place opponents — and tonight he faces the lineup with MLB’s highest team batting average, .271, which averages the MLB-high 5.42 runs per game (5.62 on the road, more than at home). His ERA is up to 7.28, his WHIP 1.58, his K-BB ratio a very low 1.6 to 1. If the Astros change from Jose Urquidy (3.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), we wouldn’t change from this selection.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves will start Charlie Morton (5-2, 4.21 ERA) against Miami's Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.30 ERA) in a battle of right-handers. Morton will be looking for his fourth straight win. In his past four starts, he has posted a 2.74 ERA. Historically, Morton has a winning record against the Marlins -- 7-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 14 starts. He has been even better in Miami, going 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in four starts at Marlins Park.

Rating: 2 Units

Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo (0-2, 5.25) is still trying to settle into his team's injury-depleted rotation. After opening his season with a scoreless 4 2/3-inning relief stint, he has posted a 6.52 ERA in five starts. Oviedo lasted just 65 pitches in his most recent start, a 5-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, but he didn't figure in the decision. He allowed two runs on three hits and three walks, one intentional. In two career starts against the Cubs, Oviedo is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA. Ian Happ (2-for-3, two walks, double, triple), Javier Baez (2-for-5), Kris Bryant (1-for-3) and Willson Contreras (1-for-4, walk, two RBIs) have hit well against him.

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas Keuchel (4-1, 4.25 ERA) of the White Sox is set to make his 13th start of the season. He has earned victories in three of his past five outings, and he pitched well his last time out despite earning a no-decision as he limited the Detroit Tigers to two runs (one earned) on five hits in six innings last Friday. Keuchel has 94 career victories, four of which have come against the Blue Jays in his career. He is 4-0 with a 4.78 ERA in six starts against Toronto while walking 15 and striking out 27 in 37 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Hyun Jin Ryu (5-3, 3.23 ERA), who has a terrific 59-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 64 innings this season. But Ryu is hoping to bounce back from his worst outing of the season, one in which he surrendered six runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Houston Astros last Friday.

Rating: 2 Units

Michael King has appeared in eight games for the Yankees this season and New York has lost seven of them. They almost always beat the Twins so we’re not going against the Yankees based on King’s unimpressive form since debuting with 6 innings of 1-hit, shutout ball vs. Toronto on April 4. Six days ago he allowed 6 hits and 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. the Red Sox. Meanwhile, before the season, the Twins acquired a couple of veterans to help them in the post-season, where they went last year. Those two vets are Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. Shoemaker, along with Matt Harvey, is one of our happy pet go-againsts. Happ? 5.61 ERA, the Twins have lost 7 of his 11 starts. The team probably won’t be going to the post-season. Although this is Happ’s World Series Game 7 — the Yankees having allegedly ‘mistreated’ him towards the end of his tenure there — his last five starts have had final scores of 13-8, 16-4, 8-5, 6-5 and 6-5, with Happ responsible for giving up 26 of the runs scored in those five games. The Twins’ bullpen, which we like to refer to as a useful tool for anti-Twins and Over players, has allowed 7 runs in 9 innings so far in this series. The number 11 is quite large for a non- Coors Field game but it’s there for a reason — like, hopefully to not be high enough.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros whacked Eduardo Rodriguez around in Houston ten days ago — 7 hits, 2 walks, 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings. He recovered a little bit against the Yankees five days later but the Yankees often specialize in hitting air with their bats (hopefully not tonight, see below). With their performances against Rodriguez on May 31, Houston batters Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa now have Batting Averages Against him of .400, .333, .667. Zack Greinke didn’t pitch against the Astros in their series in Houston, won 3-1 by Houston, who is now 2-0 in this series. Although the Red Sox are a winning team attempting to avoid being swept in a Fenway Park series, the guy starting against them has gone 8, 8 and 9 innings in three of his last four starts, can help put his team into a first-place tie with Oakland in the AL West if they win (or stay 1 game behind if Oakland wins later tonight), and has had one extra day of rest since going the distance in the Astros’ 13-1 win at Toronto on June 4, where he threw 102 pitches.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies will now look to capture the three-game set when they host the Braves on this afternoon. Atlanta took the opener 9-5 on Tuesday. Philadelphia will send Zack Wheeler to the mound for his 13th start of the season Thursday, and he is enjoying a strong campaign. Wheeler (4-3, 2.51 ERA) has recorded 100 strikeouts in 82 1/3 innings in 2021. In his past six starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA. The Braves hope Ian Anderson (4-3, 3.64 ERA) can be the guy to put them back on track after the walk-off defeat ended their three-game winning streak. However, Anderson has allowed eight runs in a combined 8 1/3 innings while losing each of his past two starts. In three career starts against the Phillies, Anderson is 0-0 with a 4.41 ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

One of the hottest pitchers on one of the hottest teams in baseball will try to lead his team to another series victory in the rubber game of a three-game series when the Milwaukee Brewers take on the host Cincinnati Reds on this afternoon. In his last start, the Brewers' Freddy Peralta (6-1, 2.25 ERA) took a no-hitter into the eighth inning at home against Arizona on Friday before yielding a hit to Nick Ahmed with one out. The Brewers closed out a combined one-hitter in a 5-1 win on Peralta's 25th birthday. Pitching like a team ace, Milwaukee is 9-3 in Peralta's 12 starts, including six quality starts. Opponents are batting just .133 (29-for-218, six home runs) with 92 strikeouts in 64 innings. Peralta fell just an out short of qualifying for the win in a 9-4 victory over the Reds on May 23 in Cincinnati. Lifetime, Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 11 appearances (five starts) against Cincinnati.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox won last night's series opener, the 8th victory in their last 11 (+$340). They are now 15-4 in night games at home (+$855) and they have ace right-hander Lance Lynn on the mound this evening (1.38 ERA in 10 starts). He's led Chicago to wins in 6 of 7 appearances at Guaranteed Rate Field (+$445). Toronto has good numbers vs. NL teams, but they have lost money vs. AL teams (-$585), so expect we'll lay the price on the home favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

The Big Cat, Casey Mize (wait, that was Johnny!), has made seven straight quality starts for the Tigers. He threw 28 innings for them last season as a rookie and didn’t accomplish much, but after 64 IP this season — still a rookie — has a 3.34 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He beat the Mariners 4-1 in Seattle on May 17, with 7 2/3 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball. The Mariners have the fewest hits of all the teams in Major League Baseball. They average only 6.6 per game and a mere 5.87 hits per game on the road. Their starter, Chris Flexen, has a  2.67 ERA in home starts but 8.10 ERA on the road. The reasons don’t jump out at anyone but it is what it is, is it not? Opponents are hitting .372 against Flexen away from Mariners Field, or whatever the heck they call their home ballpark in 2021. PNC, maybe? No, that’s not it. Maybe it’s T-Mobile. Ah, who cares?

Rating: 2 Units

Patrick ‘I Have a World Series Ring and Millions Upon Millions of Dollars As I Give Up Zillions of Hits and Runs Towards the End of My Ridiculous Contract’ Corbin is pitching for the Nationals against an opponent that has been hitting well enough to win 20 of its last 24 games. Corbin has faced a few of the Rays hitters when they played for other teams, but never when they were all part of these Rays and he’s never pitched in this ballpark. Hopefully, he’ll be wishing he never did by the time tonight’s stint is over. Since he 5-hit, 1-runned the Phillies on May 13, Cobin has allowed 29 hits and 15 runs in 20 innings through 4 starts, with only 8 Ks. Shane McClanahan has been okay for Tampa but rookies are rookies and the Nats do okay against left-handed pitching, better than vs. righties.

Rating: 3 Units

The Mets’ “C” lineup chased Matt Harvey at Citi Field after 4 1/3 innings on May 12, with 8 hits and 7 runs. They had him on the ropes as early as the second inning. New York’s lineup isn’t at full strength just yet but it’s at least back to “B” level. The Orioles wised up with Harvey in his last start, allowing him to pitch only 3 innings so that he could escape with only giving up 2 hits and 1 run. They were playing the seriously losing Twins that night and he was matched against Randy Dobnak (6.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), so they beat us. We want our money back. Tonight, as Harvey’s Exit Tour of the Major Leagues continues, he is matched against an opponent with a winning record who starts Taijuan Walker (2.17 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). The Orioles who have faced Walker when he was with Seattle have 31 plate appearances with only 6 hits, 1 for extra bases.

Rating: 2 Units

Part of our routine is to eagerly await Chris Bassitt’s turn and check the odds, which have been underdog, small favorite, or at most mid-range favorite during his current run of five straight A’s/Bassitt winners for us. Tonight, he is a prohibitive favorite, at a number we rarely accept. We’ve gone >$2.00 one time this season, when it was against Matt Harvey and Baltimore with the White Sox. It worked. When it doesn’t, you feel bad. Hopefully it works tonight. The D-Backs have lost 17 consecutive road games. It’s pretty much the kiss of death to embrace our winning streaking pitcher against this uber-losing streaking visitor, whose relatively lame attempt at countering and  snapping their run of road futility includes starting a guy who has allowed 11 hits (4 home runs), 5 walks and 9 runs in his two starts, which totaled 8 2/3 innings. But here we go.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers haven’t won a road game since Moby Dick was a minnow but tonight they’re playing home. They’ve managed to do okay when the other team starts a left-handed pitcher, although we’re not sure the correlation is exactly, “Rangers are great vs. lefties!” In fact, they got only 1 run and 4 hits against the Giants’ lefty Alex Wood in a 3-1 loss at San Francisco on May 10. But it’s a long season and pitching form doesn’t always hold from month to month. Wood had been doing great, but in his last start of May and first start of June he gave up a total of 11 runs, almost twice as many as he’d allowed in his five previous starts combined. The Giants’ lineup to be faced by Rangers’ righty Jordan Lyles will suddenly be without third baseman Evan Longoria, who leads the visitor with a .280 batting average and 45 hits, and is second with 30 RBIs. A Rangers team 15 games below .500 is nevertheless 6-6 when Lyles starts, 3-0 last three in this park against the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox.

Rating: 2 Units

Marlins manager Don Mattingly pulled a fast one on us yesterday at about 1:30 pm, ET, switching from Pablo Lopez to a bullpen night in Fenway Park (losing the game, 5-3). There’s nothing we can do about managers jerking people and pitchers around after prior arrangements have been announced, except to have that general guideline in place. Obviously, in switching from Boston to Colorado, Lopez’ task becomes easier — at least in theory. The Red Sox average 5.17 runs per game in Fenway. Away from Coors Field, the Rockies average less than half that, 2.42 runs per game. Antonio Senzatela has reverse-Rockies numbers: 3.83 ERA in Coors Field, 7.15 ERA on the road. Makes no sense. But he’s had 8 home starts and only 3 on the road, so the road sample is too small to be a true barometer. Hopefully he “Senza” message to that effect tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s the ol’ “We Swept the archrival, American League East rival Yankees over the Weekend at Yankee Stadium, now we come home to lose an Interleague game to the Marlins” situation. Although it’s not football with the traditional letdowns, this is one of the least important of the 162 games on the Red Sox regular season schedule. For one thing, aside from being Interleague it’s a stand-alone single game, a rainout makeup from earlier in the season. They will host the fellow contender Houston Astros, then fellow contender division-rival Toronto Blue Jays, in the next seven games after this, all of them here at Fenway. They pretty much exhausted the “A” group to beat the Yankees, including five relievers last night in a 3:49 game that preceded a flight home and 5:10 pm, ET first pitch today. The urgency check-mark is stronger for Miami, who ended a nine game losing streak yesterday. Corey Dickerson, Sandy Leon, Starling Marte and Sierra Magneuris are 4-for-7, 2-for-4, 2-for-6 and 2-for-3 against Nick Pivetta in their very limited exposure to him. Not bad, eh? Pivetta is the only Red Sox player to have hit against Miami’s Pablo Lopez, who enters in fine form with a 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 68-19 K-BB in 67 innings pitched.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets got on the board against the Padres behind a dominant Jacob deGrom last evening, and they have another strong right-hander set to pitch today as they look to escape Petco Park with a split. Marcus Stroman checks in with a 2.66 ERA in his 11 starts, and he's backed by a team that is now 9-4 (+$415) vs. righties in day games. New York has won 7 of its last 10 (+$380) so we'll grab the generous underdog price on the visitor in this one. 

Rating: 2 Units

Gotta get up off the mat and go with the home team using its best pitcher in an attempt to avoid being swept in a series in their own ballpark. The opponent sends a virtual rookie to the mound in the fifth start of his Major League career, first in Coors Field, which is a very different environment than James Kapreilan’s home park, and also very different from the “pitcher’s ballpark” in Seattle, where he just got roughed up for 5 hits and 4 runs in a loss to the Mariners. He has a nice-looking 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but it’s early and he still has some professional dues to pay, the initiation to Coors Field that every young pitcher must endure before becoming a man. Just ask German Marquez, who had 4.59 and 4.74 Coors Field ERAs in his first two seasons as a Colorado starter, but today is coming off 7 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball, and 7 innings of 4-hit shutout ball in his last two home starts.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers are challenging the Seattle Mariners for fewest hits per game. They average a mere 6.9 hits per game, second-fewest in MLB. The Diamondbacks have hit poorly enough, for a long enough period of time, to have lost 18 of their last 20 games. They will attempt to solve Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.24 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, with 81-7 K-BB in 52 1/3 innings. Good luck to them, for they will need it.

Rating: 3 Units

Steven Matz beat the Yankees near his hometown two starts ago with a 10-0 K-BB game and then, naturally, gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the Indians in his next start. He’s peaked! Well, maybe not, but the pumped up outing in Yankee Stadium will be tough to duplicate for a guy who’s been pitching better, for a longer stretch, than he ever did with the Mets. The Blue Jays opened this season with four straight wins in Matz starts but are merely 2-5 since. Today it’s the Astros who start a guy they’ve won four in a row behind. Luis Garcia is off quality-start wins against Boston and the Dodgers in which he had 6-1 and 7-1 K-BBs, didn’t allow a home run. And this has come after they’d lost his first six starts! Long season, man. Ebbs and flows. Through it all, his 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP look pretty good and his teammates are hitting .281 against lefthanded pitchers (Matz being a lefty), highest such average in MLB.

Rating: 2 Units

The Padres prevailed over the Mets again last night but they only managed two runs in victory, and tonight they'll face the premier pitcher in MLB. Jacob deGrom checks in with a stellar 0.71 ERA in his eight starts. San Diego is in the red vs. right-handers (-$215 overall) and they are only 5-5 in their last 10. The Mets are 21-15 vs. righties in 2021 (+$215) so we'll lay the short price on the visitor this evening at Petco Park.

Rating: 2 Units

Results for the first-place Oakland A’s in the last five starts made by left-hander Cole Irvin: L, L, L, L, L. He’s allowed 5, 4, 4 runs in the last three, isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and must now give it a go in Coors Field, where scoreboard operators often suffer from fatigue. The Rockies… they get shut out in doubleheaders on the road, then come home to score 10 runs in games… or, give up 10 or somewhere in that neighborhood. But they are 19-13 home, so they’ve tended to out-score the other sides within their friendly confines. The Rockies’ home-road split in scoring runs is 5.94 per game home (round that up to 6) and 2.42 on the road. Quite a difference, eh? They tend to hit lefties better than righties. If their own lefty, Kyle Freeland, does as well as we think he can, there is always the Rockies’ bullpen to help the score approach and exceed the necessary number while making things more interesting than they need to be in victory.

Rating: 2 Units

Results for the first-place Oakland A’s in the last five starts made by left-hander Cole Irvin: L, L, L, L, L. He’s allowed 5, 4, 4 runs in the last three, isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and must now give it a go in Coors Field, where scoreboard operators often suffer from fatigue. The Rockies… they get shut out in doubleheaders on the road, then come home to score 10 runs in games… or, give up 10 or somewhere in that neighborhood. But they are 19-13 home, so they’ve tended to out-score the other sides within their friendly confines. The Rockies’ home-road split in scoring runs is 5.94 per game home (round that up to 6) and 2.42 on the road. Quite a difference, eh? They tend to hit lefties better than righties. If their own lefty, Kyle Freeland, does as well as we think he can, there is always the Rockies’ bullpen to help the score approach and exceed the necessary number while making things more interesting than they need to be in victory.

Rating: 2 Units

Here’s a kiss of death “stat” if there ever was one, courtesy of the Associated Press, a mostly useless media outlet: “LA ace Clayton Kershaw is unbeaten in 11 career regular season starts against the Braves, 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA.” Send it in on the Braves and Charlie Morton, right? Well, hopefully not. Kershaw is a very good pitcher at much lower odds than usual, on a winning team, against an opponent three games under .500. Kershaw is also coming off a bad start against the Giants, and gave the Braves some hope in the post-season last year when Atlanta beat him 10-2 in their playoff series. Naturally, the Associated Press left that game off Kershaw’s “record” against the Braves because it didn’t fit their “unbeaten in career” story line. That’s what the media does. Anyway, enough with the American cultural lesson. Given that an ace pitcher had a bad game in this ballpark the last time he was here, and a bad game in his last outing, we’ll expect a bounce-back. Dodgers’ pen > Braves’ pen.

Rating: 4 Units

The wind is still blowing out to left-center field at 12 mph and it’s still humid in San Francisco. Carry, baseball, carry. We called for home runs last night and the Giants hit four of them. Alrighty, then. Last night’s Over winner was 8-5 and we’ll take that again. Or, 5-3 will be fine. The Cubs expect Kohl Stewart to pitch as well as he did last week when they called him up from the minors for his first MLB start since 2019 (5 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball). We don’t. The Giants used Scott Kazmir and five relievers after his 2 innings last night. Kevin Gausman is pitching fine this season but perhaps a little too fine lately: 0 earned runs allowed in his last three starts. He had a 6 IP, 2H, 0 R outing vs. the Dodgers last time out but the bullpen allowed 4 runs in 3 innings after he left. Cubs who have faced Gausman have combined for a .541 Slugging Percentage and .899 OPS against him.

Rating: 3 Units

The Mets have some bats back in the lineup who were out for a while. Their long string of games scoring 4 runs or fewer came to an end as they returned. They’ve scored 13, 6, 5, 7 and 3 in their last five games, which represents drastic improvement. Tonight’s starter, Joey Lucchesi, cannot exert any New York-based Lucchese crime family influence over the outcome because that’s not his family. However, he was a Padre for three seasons until they traded him to the Mets in the offseason, when then the organization got all, “We gotta go out and get elite lefty Blake Snell, who won a Cy Young Award and pitched in the World Series! We don’t need this lefty Lucchesi!” San Diego, with a 35-23 record and Run Differential of +76, nevertheless has lost four of Snell’s last five starts, beating only road-inept Colorado at home in that span. San Diego is only 4-7 overall in Snell’s starts for them. It’s more like Blake Smell, with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, right? So, this is Lucchesi’s big night. He pitched only 5 innings for the Padres in 2020 but in his last full season in their rotation, 2019, he had a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts at Petco Park, where opposing batters hit only .183 against him.

Rating: 2 Units

The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker, who basically only beats the Tigers but also managed to beat the Orioles — another team duking it out for last-place in its division — starts for the American League Central division’s last-place Twins. The Royals are 6 games better than the Tigers, about 13 games better than Baltimore, and they just beat Shoemaker 6-3 in Minnesota on Sunday, when he gave the home fans and backers 4 1/3 innings of 6-hit, 5-run ball for their money when matched against tonight’s Royals starter, Brad Keller. Coming off a great 2020, Keller had an atrocious April. But he improved in May and after 11 starts, has a 5-4 Won-Loss record. KC has won his last four starts. His overall ERA and WHIP of 5.68 and 1.74 are not pretty but the bad April is factored in there, when his ERA was 9.00.

Rating: 2 Units

We won a 2-0 Under game in Max Scherzer’s most recent start, when matched against Brewers’ surging ace righthander Brandon Woodruff, who shut out Scherzer’s light-hitting teammates. Phillies’ righty Zack Wheeler is in as good a groove as Woodruff was coming into that game. His median game length in his last seven starts is 7 innings. His K-BB for the month of May was 57-5. His ERA of 2.52 and WHIP of 0.93 for the season speak for themselves. Scherzer has a mere 4-4 W-L record despite a better ERA and WHIP than Wheeler: 2.34 and 0.82. That’s because the Nationals score only 3.87 runs per game — which includes games against guys who aren’t as good as Woodruff, or Wheeler — and still rank #29 in Hits per Run (2.14).

Rating: 2 Units

You don’t want to overreact after just one MLB start, but before the rest of the sporting world discovers Blue Jays rookie Alek Manoah, maybe we should be on him at relatively reasonable numbers. Debuting him in Yankee Stadium against the Yankees (well, who else would they be facing in that ballpark? Duh!) was certainly a sign of confidence in the kid and he did not disappoint
with 6 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball, 7-2 K-BB. Sure, the Yankees ain’t hittin’ much but neither are the Marlins (3.8 runs per game). Before last night’s 5-1 loss, Miami hadn’t played since Saturday and the bats were rusty against lefty Robbie Ray last night. Manoah, at a menacing 6’6”, 260, brings the heat from the other side, within a four-pitch repertoire more polished than the typical 23-year-old’s. Pablo Lopez has been doing fine for the Marlins. But he’s in a hitter’s ballpark that Toronto just landed in this week after they’d been hosting games in Tampa, with a DH added to a lineup averaging 5.03 runs per game. Last season, the Blue Jays averaged 6.12 runs per game when playing in this ballpark, exiled by their fearful Canadian faithful.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles snapped a 14-game losing streak last night, in which the team also ended a 16-game losing streak against the Twins. But with Matt Harvey starting for them tonight, they should revert to typical form and avoid a winning streak, something they haven’t had since they won three in a row April 29-May 1. Harvey’s Exit Tour of the Major Leagues is unique in the sense that as a starter, he gives cameo performances, pitching 1/3 of a game, usually less than half, sometimes as little as 1 2/3 innings. He has allowed 5, 6, 6, 7, 4 runs in his last five starts, all in less than 5 innings of work, on 5, 9, 7, 8 and 4 hits. Baltimore has lost all five games. Yet he keeps coming back for more abuse, imagining that there might be an opposing lineup within MLB that he can get through. He can dream, can’t he?

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees pulled out an 11th inning victory last night, but their offense woes continued, as they managed a mere six hits in 11 innings. The surging Rays have won 16 of their last 18 (+$1100 overall in 2021) and they have a solid left-hander in Shane McClanahan, who has been effective in his six starts (+$415), with a 0.90 ERA in his last two). New York averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties (-$595), so take the the visiting underdog in the Bronx this evening.

Rating: 2 Units

We’ve waited another five days for Chris Bassitt to come back to us, and will ya’ look at that, here he is. It would be just our bad luck (for example, Jack Flaherty got injured and left with a 3-2 lead last night) for the guy to bounce down from his complete-game, 2-hit shutout of the Angels for us last Thursday. But Bassitt has won four in a row for us and is facing batters who, collectively, have hit .188 against him with a measly .211 Slugging Percentage. The Mariners have a -42 Run Differential and average only 6.42 hits per game, fewest in MLB. Only the Mets have more guys unavailable due to injury than the Mariners, and their starter, Marco Gonzales, isn’t expected to go more than 3 or 4 innings making his first start off the injured list after not pitching in a game for five weeks.

Rating: 2 Units

Fickle fellows, aren’t we? All over the Astros against the Red Sox last night for a win, but switching to Boston tonight despite Luis Garcia’s recent mighty fine outings for Houston, which included 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball against the formidable Dodgers in his last start. But he threw 100 pitches, his most of the season, which would make it the most Garcia has ever thrown in a Major League game because he didn’t exceed 86 pitches in any outing as a rookie last year. The Astros faced an obviously down trending lefty last night when they pounded Eduardo Rodriguez. Relatively steady righthander Garrett Richards hasn’t allowed a home run in his last three starts, only 3 this season, and is better leverage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nationals look to snap a five game losing streak with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. He's looked better lately (2.61 ERA in his last two starts) and he's taking on an Atlanta team that has posted heavy losses at home in 2021 (-$785). Max Fried is 0-3 in home night games (-$440, 5.06 ERA) and Washington does score more vs. lefthanders (4.5 per game). Underdog price on the visitor looks too good to pass up.

Rating: 10 units

After opening the series with soft-tossing left-hander Rich Hill, hard-thrower Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay. On Wednesday, he allowed three hits in eight innings to go along with 11 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals. Glasnow is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, including 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in New York.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox lead the American League Central with a 33-21 record, by 3.5 games over the Indians. However, their hitters have been less effective against right-handed starters, they are 1-7 in games where they’ve been the underdog (which means when facing as good or better pitchers than their own good starting cast), and Cleveland ace righty Shane Bieber is starting against them as the second-place Indians attempt to narrow the standings gap. Chicago’s Dylan Cease seems to be riding an up-curve, currently with the best ERA/WHIP he’s had during his two-plus MLB seasons: 2.98, 1.27. He’ll be pitching to a team averaging only ?? runs per game and is without its regular clean-up hitter Franmil Reyes. Chicago closer Liam Hendriks didn’t pitch during yesterday’s doubleheader split and is fresh, fit, ready to go if/when needed. A 6:10 pm, ET start in Cleveland invites shadows to become part of the attendance, which is not what hitters want to see.

Rating: 3 Units

The Arizona Diamondbacks just snapped their 13-game losing streak, but they now face the daunting task of putting together another win against the major league's top pitcher, Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets. The two-time Cy Young Award winner leads the majors with a 0.80 ERA, allowing only four earned runs in 45 innings spanning seven starts. He also has 74 strikeouts to go with only seven walks. He struck out nine in a successful return from the injured list last Tuesday in a 3-1 victory over the visiting Colorado Rockies. He has never lost to Arizona, compiling a 4-0 record and 1.65 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks. Arizona will counter with right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 4.84 ERA). Kelly has allowed only 16 earned runs in his past seven starts (41 2/3 innings) and compiled 42 strikeouts with 12 walks in that span. He is 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. He went 5 2/3 innings at New York on May 8 in a 4-2 loss. He allowed only three hits and struck out six but he also walked five batters.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals lost their first game out of 10 Jack Flaherty starts six days ago at the White Sox. It was a strange first two innings. The White Sox scored their first run on a groundout to Flaherty, their second run on two errors on one play. In the second inning, they scored on a single, a bases loaded walk, a wild pitch. It’s not like they hammered Flaherty around to jump out to their first 5 runs in an 8-3 game. We’ll take a mulligan with Flaherty as an even larger underdog this time, matched against L.A. ace Trevor Bauer. Dodgers who have faced Flaherty are 4-for-38 against him, all singles, 18-3 K-BB. Bauer has excellent numbers: 2.07 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 91-22 K-BB in 69 2/3 innings pitched. But the Dodgers are only 5-6 in his starts. Cardinals who have faced him are 8-for-22 (.363).

Rating: 2 Units

Today's pitching matchup will feature a pair of rookies, James Kaprielian (2-0, 1.53 ERA) of Oakland and Logan Gilbert (0-2, 7.59 ERA) of Seattle. The 27-year-old Kaprielian made just two relief appearances in 2020 (3.2 IP) but in three starts here in 2021 (his first major-league start came May 12 at Boston), he's 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a 1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23-8 KW ratio and a .156 BAA. Gilbert's a 24-year-old rookie who has also made three starts in 2021. He struggled badly in his first two starts (6.2 IP / 7 ERs allowed) but had his best outing last week at Oakland, giving up two runs on four hits over four innings (settled for a no-decision in Seattle's 4-3 win). However, Logan's numbers hardly match Kaprielian's numbers (see above), as he owns a 7.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a .283 BAA.

Rating: 3 Units

“I’m very excited. I’m very healthy right now. Very anxious to do my best and help us win tomorrow.” So said Astros’ righty Jose Urquidy yesterday, one day before returning from the injured list, where he’s been since exiting in the fourth inning on May 12. Hey, thanks for the heads-up, Jose! Urquidy is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts, with just 2 BBs and 4 ER allowed on 15 hits in 23 2/3 innings. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed more hits than innings pitched in each of his last five starts, in which the Red Sox — a 32-20 team — are 1-4. Ah, the weak link, eh? Houston’s .283 team batting average against left-handed pitchers is MLB’s highest such number. Given that it has been produced with the most at-bats against lefties (763, vs. 658 for the next most frequent lefty-facers), it’s a more valid stat than most. Also, you don’t even need a calculator to figure that their 14-for-42 lifetime against Rodriguez equals .333.

Rating: 3 Units

The Giants plan to send veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto to the mound against the Angels. Cueto (3-1, 3.86 ERA) has faced the Angels only four times in his 14-year major league career, but is 3-0 against them with a 1.35 ERA. Cueto faced the Angels last Aug. 19 in Anaheim and earned the win after allowing two runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-2 victory. The Angels plan to send right-hander Dylan Bundy to the mound for the series opener. Bundy (0-5, 6.50) has struggled most of the season. He pitched a season-low 2 1/3 innings in his last outing against Oakland, allowing four runs and five hits. The Angels bailed him out from another loss by scoring five runs over the sixth through eighth innings in the 6-5 win. Bundy faced the Giants in August as well and surrendered a leadoff homer to Mike Yastrzemski and a two-run shot to Pablo Sandoval in the second before leaving after four innings in the 8-2 loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Compared to Kershaw, Gausman has limited experience against his opponent Sunday. He is 0-2 with a 4.44 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers, with four of his five meetings against them over the past two seasons as a member of the Giants. Gausman has not given up more than one earned run in any of his past seven starts and has delivered consecutive scoreless outings against the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco is 7-3 in Gausman's 10 starts this season. The Giants also got some help off the injured list with first baseman Wilmer Flores activated Saturday following a strained right hamstring. Flores had three hits and scored two runs. His return was welcome news after both Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf went on the IL in advance of the current series.

Rating: 3 Units

The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker starts for the Twins. He has beaten Detroit and Baltimore. Big whoop. He beat us last time out against the Orioles but we don’t fear him today against the Royals, who got 8 hits and 9 runs against Shoemaker in 3 1/3 innings on May 1. The Royals very recently got starting shortstop Adalberto Mondesi back from the injured
list and he is 2-for-5 and 2-for-4 in this 1-1 series so far, with 3 RBI. In his five games since returning, Mondesi is hitting .389. HIs teammate, Salvador Perez, should hang an ownership tag around Shoemaker’s neck because he is 9-for-15 in his career against this pitcher (.600 BA), with 3 doubles and 2 homers. The bad April of Brad Keller was puzzling because he’d pitched so well last season. But in his last start, he stopped Tampa’s 11-game win streak with a 2-1 win. Any play against the Twins includes that Minnesota bullpen frequently working for you instead of them.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays recently won 11 straight games before the streak was snapped in that 2-1 loss to Keller and KC five days ago. After that game, their manager pledged to start and extend another winning streak and by golly, they did. Tampa has won three straight. But they will start a four-game series tomorrow in Yankee Stadium. They lead the Red Sox by a half-game, the Yankees by 3.5 games, in the American League East. With Colin McHugh opening, it’s obvious that they’re setting up the rotation to be at its strongest for the intra-division series against the hated division rival, as opposed to today’s Interleague affair. McHugh last appeared in the ninth inning of Thursday’s 7-2 win vs. the Royals. Today, it’s the first inning. Two appearances ago, it was the 7th and 8th innings in a 14-8 win. There is no real routine with him, and with the Yankees coming up, the relief choices may not be the “A” team. Zach Eflin is no superstar but you have to feel that a guy whose innings pitched in 10 starts are: 7, 6, 7, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 and 6 deserves some love from the baseball gods with a decent 3.84 ERA but a mere 2-4 W/L record to show for it.

Rating: 3 Units

A couple o’ #1 starters face sub-par offenses who average a mere 3.79 and 3.85 runs per game. Those low averages — which rank #23 and #26 in the 30-team entertainment enclave — include games when they aren’t facing #1 starters, or, for that matter, #2 starters. In his five starts in the month of May, 2021, Max Scherzer hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs. His median length is 7 1/3 innings for those five starts, with 47-7 K-BB in 33 1/3 innings. Washington is only 3-2 despite his excellence, having lost 2-1 and 4-3 (the latter in 11 innings, it was 2-1 when Scherzer left in the eighth, 2-2 after nine innings). See? They don’t hit much. Brandon Woodruff’s month of May is as good: also no more than 2 runs allowed in any of five starts, 7 2/3 innings median length, 39-6 K-BB. Milwaukee is only 3-2 despite his excellence because they lost 2-0 shutouts twice. See? They don’t hit much.

Rating: 2 Units

Woodruff (3-2, 1.41 ERA) owns a 1.05 ERA over his last nine starts for the Brewers, who have won six of their last eight. Milwaukee recorded a doubleheader sweep of the Nationals on Saturday, winning the first game 4-1 before scoring four runs in the sixth inning to win the nightcap 6-2.  Washington has lost four of its last five games, and a lack of timely hitting has been the primary culprit. The frustration continued to simmer early in the first game Saturday, when star outfielder Juan Soto grounded into a double play with one out and two runners on in the third inning and the Nationals already trailing 4-0.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners took the first two games from the Rangers at T-Mobile and they look like a solid value tonight. Justin Dunn comes in with a 3.41 ERA in eight outings, and he'll be facing a Texas team that is only 10-24 when facing right-handers (-$950). Seattle has had a profitable season vs. righties so far (+$520) so we'll lay the short price on the home team as they attempt to make it three in a row.

Rating: 2 Units

We intended to go against Mitch Keller yesterday so after the rainout why not do it again today despite the pitching change? Yes, it’s the ultimate contrarian wise-guy move to be backing a 3-20 road team in both games of a double-header on the road. But the other side is the Pirates, so... Keller’s below par record was detailed yesterday, including zero quality starts out of nine. Austin Gomber just gave the Rockies 8 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball at the Mets in a 3-2 win. If there’s a team as weak, or weaker than the Mets offensively in the National League, it’s Pittsburgh.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles have lost 10 straight games and it’s Matt Harvey’s turn to start, against the first-place team in the American League Central Division. The most recent stop on Harvey’s Exit Tour of MLB was in Washington on Sunday, a light-hitting lineup that nevertheless got 9 hits and 6 runs against him in 4 2/3 innings. Before that, he lasted only 1 2/3 innings vs. Tampa, giving up 7 hits and 6 runs. The Mets — who can’t score more than 4 runs against any combination of pitchers on any opponent — nevertheless jumped on Harvey for 8 hits and 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings before that. It’s out of character for us to use a $2.00 favorite and apologize in advance if it doesn’t work out. But steady veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel would really have to throw in a terrible outing to blow this, with three regulars out injured in an already light-hitting Orioles lineup.

Rating: 2 Units

We add the Over with the game shortened to 7 innings because with Matt Harvey starting for Baltimore, the White Sox have an opportunity to get 7 runs on their own before Harvey leaves.

MLB Play of the Day

The Rockies are 3-20 away from Coors Field. Godawful, eh? But they’ll win more than three games on the road. Hopefully that milestone is reached tonight in Pittsburgh, the National League’s last-place team with MLB’s worst Run Differential (-84). The Pirates average only 3.64 runs per game in their home park, where they are 8-14. If you can’t win on the road, it helps to be facing a bad host, right? Jon Gray has been the Rockies’ best starter with a 1.18 WHIP. The Pirates he’s faced are just 6-for-32 against him, 13-1 K-BB, Slugging Percentage of .157. Early listings have the Pirates switching Mitch Keller to Game 2 against Austin Gomber, with J.T. Brubaker to oppose Gray. Fine with us. Brubaker has allowed 15 hits and 12 runs in his last two starts, which totaled 11 innings. Among the 15 hits were 4 home runs. Yesterday’s rainout gave the Colorado bullpen a break after a double-header against the Mets the previous day.

Rating: 2 Units

Justus Sheffield gave up 10 hits and 7 runs to the Rangers in Texas on May 9. The southpaw has a 5.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, both higher than last season’s 3.58 and 1.30. The Rangers have been hitting lefties pretty well this season, managing to win 12 of 18 games when the opponent starts one (they’re 10-24 when the opponent starts a righty, like last night, when Seattle’s Chris Flexen shut ‘em out.) Jordan Lyles doesn’t get anyone excited to get out of the bed and on the phone with The Man, that’s for sure. But the Rangers have won four of his last five starts, three of them against the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros.

Rating: 4 Units

These are two pretty decent pitchers but the Padres’ Dinelson Lamet has been used sparingly and spottily and hasn’t been going deep into starts, while Framber Valdez is making his first start of the season for the Astros. it’s an Interleague game and managers tend to shake up their rotations and bullpen usage in these instances while hoping their hitters overcome their managerial ways. Both sides hit well enough (#1 5.2 runs per game for the Astros, #10 4.65 runs per game for the Padres to expect their averages, or better, once the starters are out and the relief crews over and done with. The Houston pen isn’t as good as the Milwaukee pen that San Diego just closed a series against.

Rating: 2 Units

A 21 mph wind blows in from center field at Wrigley Field this afternoon. That should keep most if not all the well-struck fly balls in the ballpark. We’ll take a flyer on Cincinnati rookie righthander Vladimir Gutierrez in his MLB debut. He can throw 96 mph, maybe get an extra push on it with the wind at his back. Adbert Alzolay has stuck in the Cubs’ rotation with his 0.86 WHIP. He’s been quite unlucky with a 4.30 ERA, a number you rarely see matched with such a low WHIP. His K-BB is an impressive 45-7 after 44 IP, and he won’t be facing injured Joey Votto or Mike Moustakas in the Reds’ lineup.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s our man Chris Bassitt. After three straight road wins for us at Boston, Minnesota and the Angels, he turns around to face the L.A. lineup again, this time in his home park. He and his teammates beat the Angels 6-2 five days ago with Bassitt hounding them through 7 2/3 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball, 8-1 K-BB. In his last five starts, four of them Oakland wins, Bassitt has a 38-4 K-BB. Yow. No Mike Trout for the Angels, and Anthony Rendon, since he returned from an injury two weeks ago, is 6-for-30 with 0 HR, 1 RBI. Angels’ multi-purpose Ohtani is 3-for-16 lifetime vs. Bassitt, (.188), with 7 strikeouts. He has to face him, but Bassitt doesn’t have to face Ohtani. Oh, that’s not fair. And who cares about fair?

Rating: 4 Units

The White Sox were averaging 8.6 runs per game against left-handed starters before going into Yankee Stadium and getting stifled by Jordan Montgomery. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann is a lefty with a 5.59 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, who they should enjoy teeing off against at home. They’ve supported Dylan Cease with 11-0, 9-0 and 9-3 wins and have the ability to go Over this Total on their own.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals dropped a close 2-1 decision last night, but they've kept the Tampa offense in check the past two nights, and they're getting a huge price at Tropicana Field. They've made money vs. left-handers (+$360 in road games), and Shane McClanahan comes in with 4.36 ERA his last two appearances. Brady Singer has pitched well in recent appearances, so look for KC to prevail in today's rubber game.

Rating: 2 Units

Why leave Citi Field if nobody is forcing us to get out? The Rockies entered last night’s game averaging 2.8 runs per game on the road, got 1 run and 3 hits against 5-inning Jacob deGrom and three Mets’ relievers. The men in Mets uniforms — many of them not supposed to be playing as much as they have been in recent days — continued their string of staying under 4 runs, getting 3. The Mets haven’t scored more than 4 in a nine-inning game since May 12. They got 9 hits, but all season long they’ve been among the worst teams in Hits per Run ratio, currently #28 at 2.13 hits for every run scored. German Marquez and Marcus Stroman are capable veteran pitchers, especially when the opposing lineups don’t have much pop in them. All the best relievers got an unscheduled day of rest yesterday and will be available. As always with these doubleheaders, double-check the times and pitching matchups because 19-year-olds with hardly any experience are posting information in Las Vegas and online, posing as expert insiders.

Rating: 2 Units

Team with as good or better a bullpen than Milwaukee’s, with MLB’s best Run Differential of +80, vs. the Brewers’ -24, is only a short favorite. The Brewers’ team batting average of .209 and on-base percentage of .295 are lowest in the National League. They’ve never faced Ryan Weathers — 1.48 ERA, 0.92 WHIP — and by the time they think they have him figured out, he’ll be gone by the 4th innings, replaced by somebody just as capable. Adrian Houser’s 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, a mere 1.9 K-BB ratio… not doin’ it for us.

Rating: 2 Units

The Diamondbacks had nine hits but couldn't push across a run in their latest defeat. Arizona has scored two or fewer runs in 10 of the setbacks during the 13-game stretch. The Diamondbacks stand 13 games behind the San Diego Padres in the National League West. Last-place Arizona is 12 1/2 games behind the second-place Los Angeles Dodgers and 11 1/2 games behind the Giants. Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.34 ERA) will look to continue his career-long success against Arizona. The 35-year-old Cueto is 11-3 with 3.04 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Diamondbacks. He is 8-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 outings at Chase Field. Eduardo Escobar is 3-for-9 with a homer against Cueto, while David Peralta (1-for-15, nine strikeouts) and Nick Ahmed (1-for-12) have struggled. Cueto gave up one run and five hits in five innings while beating the Cincinnati Reds -- his former club -- last Thursday.  Meanwhile the Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 5.05) has lost his past three starts and is winless over his last four.

Rating: 2 Units

Seems similar to last night’s match-up, when it was Kershaw vs. Greinke. The Dodgers’ starter, in this case Trevor Bauer, is capable of going longer and giving up fewer runs than the Astros’ starter, in this case Luis Garcia. Bauer’s starts for L.A. have averaged 6.4 innings and his WHIP is 0.77. Garcia’s starts for Houston have averaged only 4.9 innings and while his WHIP is a fine 1.10, Bauer’s 0.77 is clearly stronger. Things being what they are, Bauer should exit with a lead and then it’s up to a pretty good Dodgers’ bullpen to do its job.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston pitcher Nick Pivetta will try to keep his undefeated streak intact today against a very familiar foe. The right-hander (5-0, 3.59 ERA) will close the two-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves, a team Pivetta has appeared against 15 times (12 starts). He will be opposed by left-hander Drew Smyly (2-2, 5.11). Pivetta is 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 games against Atlanta, including 3-0 as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017. But Pivetta said he has become a different pitcher since being acquired by Boston last August. "They gave me the confidence in myself, which was really good," he said. "They valued me, they traded for me, which was really nice of them. They valued me as a starter, which was huge, so it instilled a lot of confidence in me. They kind of let me be me, but they've helped me." He is 7-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 11 starts with Boston and is only the third pitcher to go unbeaten in their first 10 starts with the Red Sox, joining Mike Nagy in 1969 and Matt Clement in 2005.

Rating: 4 Units

Mariners’ touted rookie Logan Gilbert has yet to distinguish himself after two starts that lasted 4, then 2 2/3 innings. He’s allowed 9 hits and 7 runs, facing two of the American League’s weakest hitting lineups, Cleveland and Detroit, at home. He may not be ready for prime time. Doubts about the Oakland pitching staff linger. Cole Irvin has been a regular in the rotation but after striking out 9 Blue Jays in an 8-inning start on May 4, he has thrown 17 2/3 innings in three starts since, whiffing a total of only 6.

Rating: 10 Units

Right-hander Zack Greinke (4-1, 3.77 ERA) will start the opener for the Astros on Tuesday. He is coming off his best outing in four weeks, having allowed one run on four hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings in an 8-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics on May 19. The Astros feature one of the top offenses in the majors, leading the league in batting (.270) while ranking second in OPS (.761), third in on-base percentage (.334) and fourth in slugging (.427).

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Lance Lynn gave the White Sox 7 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball last night against the franchise which, after six seasons of pitching for them, five of them with a winning Won-Loss record, sent him on his way to what is currently a four-season, four-team, money-raking journey for the guy. The Cardinals had that coming to them from the baseball spirits, especially since Tony LaRussa, their former manager from 1995-2011, is leading the White Sox ten years after the Cardinals thought they’d put him out to pasture forever after two World Series wins, three NL pennants and nine post-season appearances. How satisfying a win was it? Glad we asked that question for you: “That was probably the most satisfying win in my career aside from the playoffs,” Lynn said. “I definitely enjoyed it.” Alrighty, then. But it’s a tough act to follow for their starter tonight, Lucas Giolito. He’s a fine and dandy young pitcher coming off 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball at Minnesota — so he is his own tough act to follow, isn’t he now? Good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. So far in 2021, nine (9) good things (wins) and no (zero, 0) bad things (losses).

Rating: 2 Units

A 1.79 ERA and 0.62 WHIP are just too good to be believed, as far as their chances of being sustained at those super-elite levels over the course of a season, or half-season. That the Brewers are only 2-5 in Corbin Burnes’ seven starts despite his excellent numbers suggests a few things: hitting woes, which they most certainly have had; and wasted opportunities from excellent efforts that seem to be due to level off. With the Padres loss here last night, they are nevertheless 9-1 in their last ten games and have all their guys back from the virus nonsense (which didn’t affect them in a bad way, at all!). They are a +73 Run Differential underdog visitor against a -17 Run Differential home favorite. Few bullpens can match Milwaukee’s for depth of quality but the Padres’ pen is equal or better, actually better to date for 2021 with an MLB-low 2.47 ERA and #2 WHIP of 1.09.

Rating: 4 Units

The Braves rid themselves of Charlie Morton batting in favor of a DH. Charlie Morton pitching hasn’t exactly been the Charlie Morton of recent seasons. He had four straight sub-par outings allowing 5,4, 6 and 3 runs in no more than 5 1/3 innings (and as little as 2/3 of an inning) before beating the Mets with 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball last week. The Mets are pulling people off the street to hit the danged ball, so that effort by no means suggests that Charlie Morton of Astros and Rays post-season fame will be showing up in this ballpark tonight. Garrett Richards and Fenway Park aren’t getting along very well just yet. He has a 7.11 ERA in it after three starts, 12 1/3 innings in which opposing batters have 16 hits, scored 10 runs and are hitting .320 against him.

Rating: 2 Units

The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins tonight. That, in itself, is a decent enough reason to be on the other side. Shoemaker actually had a good outing against somebody other than Detroit in his last start (White Sox), but the Twins still managed to lose the game, and we were grateful for that. Having John Means as the Orioles starter adds another fine reason to be against the Twins, who continue to be set frequently at favored odds despite being tied for the American League’s most losses. Yes, we know that Baltimore is the team they are tied with and that the Orioles are 1-9 in their last ten games. But they’re 11-11 on the road and Minnesota is 8-15 in their home park. That’s something. Isn’t it? Means has a 1.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. That’s something else.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

The Padres had the pleasure of facing the weakened Mariners bullpen over the weekend. Milwaukee’s is full strength and better to begin with. Nobody’s pen has been better than San Diego’s. So, you have two good bullpens behind two good starters. Brewers hitters have 0 home runs, a measly .185 Slugging Percentage and 1 RBI against Blake Snell in 39 at-bats against him. Padres hitters have 0 home runs, a .195 Slugging Percentage and only 4 RBI in 43 at-bats against Brandon Woodruff, who enters with a 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 65-14 K-BB in 57 innings pitched. Snell has 60 Ks in 40 IP.

Rating: 2 Units

Trevor Rogers is becoming a folk hero in Miami with his 6-2 won-loss record from nine starts,1.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, and 65-19 K-BB in 51 2/3 innings. Rogers has allowed a total of only 3 home runs, and more than 2 runs in a game just once, when he gave up 3 in a 3-1 loss. He has won three shutouts, and then his last three outings by 3-1, 5-1 and 6-1 scores. We were on him in the 3-1 win, noting that while the Phillies got 9 hits and 9 runs in 3 innings against him in a game last season, he’d improved dramatically since then. Meanwhile, only one MLB starter has a K-BB Ratio better than Zach Eflin’s 11.4 to 1. That would be Yankees’ ace Gerritt Cole (11.5 to 1). For further purposes of comparison, the fine pitcher we’re on in the game above, John Means, has a 5.36 to 1 K-BB Ratio

Rating: 4 Units

Again, as was the case for yesterday’s Over, the Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. Although Yu Darvish is an ace capable of pitching a shutout against the team that gets the fewest hits per game in what you call your Major League Baseball, the Padres are capable of exceeding this Total on their own. Justin Dunn isn’t likely to give them more than 5 innings. He walks too many (22 in 32 IP). The Mariners’ bullpen is stocked with minor league call-ups for the next seven days. And after Darvish exits, the Padres can afford to use ‘B’ relievers with a lead in an Interleague game.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Chris Bassitt has started Oakland victories at Boston and at Minnesota for us in his last two outings. Tonight he’s on the road again facing, like the Twins, a last-place opponent. The Angels have a -47 Run Differential, closing in on Detroit for worst in the American League. They were a lousy team before Mike Trout went on the Injured List and are 1-4 since that day, winning when Alex Cobb threw some blistering innings for them, and us, against the — last-place — Twins. Two weeks ago, the Orange County Register reported that Angels manager Joe Maddon “values Patrick Sandoval as middle-innings closer.” He values him so much in that role that he’s starting today. “I love middle-inning closers. That’s been a big part of the success that I’ve been around in the past.” Yeah, well, try not to live in the past. That’s what propelled him to bring lefty Jose Quintana to the Angels, for yet another loss last night, when his “middle-inning closer” Mike Mayers turned a 4-3 lead into a 6-4 deficit in a hurry. Some reports say “Dylan Bundy” for the Angels, who’s been getting hammered lately, falling in line with what happens to most pitchers when they come to the Angels. Either, or.

Rating: 4 Units

The Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. The non-infected crew rose to the occasion here last night by… allowing 8 runs after starter Chris Flexen choked and allowed 8 of his own in 1 2/3 innings! Justus Sheffield is always an accident waiting to happen and even if he does well, the Seattle bullpen situation is not good. This is one of those instances where the Padres seem like they can exceed the Total on their own. It’s an Inter-league game, so the ‘A’ bullpen guys wouldn’t necessarily need to be called upon after Weathers’ night is done after probably no more than 5 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Sox reward for hammering the heck out of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola and the bullpen last night is to step in against Spencer Howard. This guy owes us money. He spent most of his rookie 2020 season giving the Phillies deficits to overcome, following big hype that wasn’t met. He had a 5.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts for them last season. So far, they’ve let him throw just 4 1/3 innings this season and he’s allowed 4 runs on 6 hits. The Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi is having a decent enough season but as a fastball pitcher with good control, you can’t help but see 2 homers coming from Bryce Harper, who’s hitting .381 against Eovaldi. Hoskins, Joyce, McCutcheon and Segura are at .333, .300, .429 and .333 against him.

Rating: 2 Units

Since the beginning of last season, the Dodgers are 16-4 (80% wins) when Walker Buehler starts. He’s 4-0 vs. the Giants in his MLB career, during which San Francisco batters currently on the team have gotten only 13 hits in 66 at-bats (.197 BAA), just two of them for extra bases. Maybe this is why the Giants are “Undecided” about who to start against him? Because it doesn’t matter? An 80% pitcher’s odds figure to be less than 80% in this match-up, which would lift the Dodgers into an NL West first-place tie with the Giants if they win (although the Padres can beat the virus-depleted bullpen of Seattle and lead the division by one game after their 10:10 pm game is completed).

Rating: 4 Units

After pounding out 20 runs on 20 hits to do a psyche job against the Pirates pitching staff last night, the Braves only need to face Mitch Keller today. The Braves have been woeful against left-handed pitching but pretty good against righties. The Pirates’ righty Keller has a 7.16 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Arrgh. Atlanta’s Bryse Wilson still hasn’t approached that 6 inning, 1-hit job he threw in the post-season vs. the Dodgers. His ERA is 5.50, his WHIP 1.61.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles have fallen a full 10 games below .500 following last night's loss in the series opener (2-8, -$530 last 10 days, with a 5.57 ERA among starters). The Nats have an edge with veteran Jon Lester (3.80 ERA) on the mound vs. Bruce Zimmermann (-$385, 5.40 ERA in six starts). The NL East is very competitive, and the Nats are in good shape, especially with Stephen Strasburg
back in the rotation. We'll look for them to prevail again today