Rating: 2 Units

The Reds have been a better hitting team at home than they have been on the road. Away, they’ve been shut out at Arizona, twice at San Francisco, and then last night in St. Louis. Ours is not to reason why. Ours is but to do… and keep doing. Good things tend to happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. They’ve won all four of them so far and scored 11, 7, 14 and 12 runs in doing so. As we said recently, Flaherty is a guy who’ll be laying -160 on a regular basis before long. Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo is not pitching to his reputation and past numbers, with his 6.06 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Two starts ago in San Francisco they gave him a 4-0 lead in the first inning but it was gone, goodbye, all of it, by the time he got his first three outs. He followed up on that stinker by losing a home game to the D-Backs giving up 7 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings.

Rating: 10 Units10* Total of the Month

Right-hander Lance McCullers (1-1, 5.27 ERA) will start Sunday as the Astros pursue the series sweep. It will mark his first start since he allowed six runs on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers while battling an illness on April 14. McCullers had allowed a total of two earned runs with 13 strikeouts over his previous two starts. McCullers is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA over 13 career starts against the Angels, posting 66 strikeouts over 70 innings. He failed to record an out in his most recent appearance against the Angels, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks in the Astros' 6-5 road loss on Sept. 4, 2020. Right-hander Dylan Bundy (0-2, 4.50) gets the start for the Angels in the series finale. He allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts over five innings in his previous appearance, a 6-4 loss to the Texas Rangers on April 19.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitchers: Baumgarner vs Smyly

Madison Bumgarner pitched better than his typical 4 IP, 7 H, 6 R outing when the D-Backs beat the Nationals in his last start. But Washington is the least efficient offense in MLB. The Braves lineup figures to be more difficult for him. Ronald Acuna returned to it from injury Friday. Although the Braves are hitting only .182 vs. lefties, they have only 88 at-bats against them, third-fewest. A team scoring 5.88 runs per game in its home park, facing Bumgarner, should improve in the “Vs. Lefties” department today. Meanwhile, the Braves put Drew Smyly back out there after he missed a turn due to forearm inflammation. Hey, two starts is a lot for a poor guy with a one-year, $11 million contract to make without a rest! Southpaw Smyly had pitched 11 innings allowing 7 runs before this. Arizona has MLB’s best team OPS vs. lefties, .898.

NOTE:  DO NOT play if pitchers listed are different than actual

Rating: 2 Units

The American League Central division’s first place team lays a short number throwing a lefty against a host that hasn’t been able to hit them. We had a winner with the Royals and Mike Minor over the Tigers on Friday and after that affair, the Tigers are still hitting only .179 vs. lefthanders with a mere 8 RBI and 2 home runs in 145 at-bats. The Royals have won the first two games of this series and if you think we’re stepping in against a desperate home team seeking to avoid being swept in a series, please be aware that the Tigers will have that opportunity tomorrow when the four-game set concludes. Michael Fulmer is a fine pitcher but as noted on Friday, he and the lousy Detroit bullpen with the 6.00+ ERA will have to out-do themselves to overcome the lack of support, should the numbers hold. Duffy is pitching well since he isn’t spending his time being found asleep in parked cars early in the morning.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

The Blue Jays got 3 runs off Tampa’s opener Brent Honeywell, Jr. yesterday, then Ryan Yarbrough gave them 5 2/3 innings of shutout relief, followed by 2 more innings of shutout relief from the finalizers. That’s the Rays’ bullpen people have come to expect, not the one that entered yesterday’s game with an ERA greater than 5.00. Today, they’re really getting creative, starting one of the kids they got from San Diego in the Blake Snell trade, 21-year-old Luis Patino. He’s a good one and by the time they figure him out, the righthander will be outta there, perhaps after only 3 innings. After that, the plan is to bring in lefty Josh Fleming, a second-year pitcher the Blue Jays got 2 hits and 0 runs against in 14 at-bats during his rookie season. Young mystery guns. Good thing the cross-town based Blue Jays are throwing their own stingy lefty, Hyun-Jin Ryu and his 1.04 WHIP, 21-2 K-BB in 24 innings.

MLB Total of the Day

The Over is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a road underdog, 11-4-1 in Marlins last 16 during game 3 of a series, and  19-7-1 in Marlins last 27 Saturday games.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a new crosstown rivalry! The Blue Jays are playing home games right across the Old Tampa Bay in Dunedin, FL, which is 35 minutes west of the Rays’ Tropicana Field. The collective fear of a nation other than the U.S. has forced their exile from Canada. They didn’t have to get on an airplane to play last night’s game, in which National League lefty refugee Steven Matz helped propel them to a win against a guy who’d been next to unhittable, Tyler Glasnow. Did driving across town, vs. packing a lot more stuff and flying 3.5 hours, have something to do with their ability to get the road W? We’ll never know for sure but it couldn’t have hurt. Tonight, they throw another one of their National League lefty refugees — they have a trio of them doing good work — against the Rays (Ray against the Rays, ha!). Tampa counters with one of their famous relief nights, opened by Brent Honeywell, Jr. It’s been a good formula for the franchise since it was instituted but the bullpen currently has an ERA of 5.21.

Rating: 3 Units

Ace vs. Ace. Sub-1.00 WHIP vs. sub-1.00 WHIP. That’s where you normally get your 1-0 or 2-1 ballgames. We’ll take 3-2, too. A 6:10 pm, ET start in Cleveland puts some shadows out there as a 10th fielder against the hitters. Bieber’s only start out of four that has gone Over the Total was in Cincinnati, against the heaviest-scoring home team in what you call your Major League Baseball. Cole’s four starts are also 1-3 OU, in which 7 of the 9 the runs in the game were scored by the Yankees against lousy Orioles pitchers Kremer, Plutko, Wells and LeBlanc. Even Jay Bruce got a home run that day. He hitting was so bad otherwise that he quit the game last week. Gave it up. Walked off.

Rating: 3 Units

Cardinals batters who have faced him have made good contact against lefty Wade Miley of the Reds. They’re hitting .321 against him in 78 at-bats, and his K-BB against them is a mere 14-12. Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, all .300 or better lifetime vs. Miley and the Cardinals are tagging lefthanded pitching in general pretty well so far with an .811 OPS. St. Louis starter John Gant has a lot of hair and a lot of walks: 11 of them in 14 innings over three starts. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league! He’s been able to somehow strand a lot of guys while accruing his lousy WHIP of 1.86, which doesn’t jive with his decent ERA of 3.21.

Rating: 2 Units

For the third time this season, there’s a Peralta-Alzolay match-up. Third time could be the charm for Alzolay and the Cubs after they lost the prior two 6-3 and 4-0, away and home. They’re on a four-game win streak and have broken out of an early-season slump. But the scoreboard is reset from 15-2 last night and maybe they’re just not ready for Freddie after his two pitching lines against them totaled 11 innings of work, 3 hits, 1 run. Peralta is backed by one of the best bullpens going. Gotta draw a line through yesterday’s game when Brewers’ starter Brett (I’m on My Way Outta Baseball) Anderson failed to get out of the first inning against the Cubs, and anti-reliever Josh Lindblom entered with gas cans full, pouring them onto the fire with gleeful zeal so that by the end of the second inning, it was 10-0 Cubs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have hit well against righthanders, but they've averaged just 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaws so far, and Detroit starter Matthew comes in with a 2.03 ERA in three outings this season. KC has a tenuous grip on 1st place in the AL Central because their pitching staff is underperforming (4.53 ERA, 4th worst in the league). The Tigers are getting an underdog price with a hot lefty on the mound.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

OMG! Extremely unusual mishaps on and off the field that happened to the Twins while they were on the road shouldn’t happen to a dog. A mean dog. They are the ‘coldest’ team in baseball, 1-9 in their last 10 games, last place in the American League Central. But it just so happens that the opponents they’ve been losing to are the hottest teams in baseball — Oakland, 11-game winning streak; Boston, who’d been 10-1 in their last 11 after taking three of four from Minnesota; Seattle, tied for first place with Oakland in the AL West. Following a curtailed trip that was cut to four games from seven, they return home — not the most serene place in the world right now but home, nevertheless — and take a major drop in class with the Pirates as the visitor. The Twins made the post-season last year, won 60% of their games. This is like a stakes horse that was shipped out of town but could never get the feel of the track and was thrown off its routine when asked to run against a fellow stakes horses on its own home track (Oakland), returning to its home course matched against an out of town allowance horse. The Twins’ bats have been weak vs. lefties but the Pirates didn’t get the memo and will start JT Brubaker, as his teammates who have faced JA Happ try to figure out why they are hitting a combined .131 against him in 83 at-bats.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals are atop the American League Central and have arrived for a four-game road series against a perennial loser they beat six times in 10 games last season. There’s a long way to go and they probably won’t last, but they’re set up to at least sustain what they’ve got going for another night in this day-to-day world. Mike Minor seems like a major asset to leverage against the host Tigers, who are ahead of only the Mets in average runs scored per game (3.37). Minor is a crafty, 33-year-old lefthander throwing at a lineup that is currently batting a Major League-low .174 against lefties with 1 home run and 6 RBIs in 121 at-bats. Although Minor has been around the block more than a few times, the current group of Tigers has only 24 at-bats against him with results that mirror their struggles against southpaws so far in 2021: a mere 3 hits, all singles, and 11 Ks vs. 1 walk. Detroit’s Casey Mize, and the bullpen behind him with the highest ERA and WHIP in MLB (6.64, 1.67), would really have to out-do themselves to overcome the lack of support if the Tigers’ offensive numbers hold.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets are making us look smart by playing to their weak Hits per Run ratio of 2.33, failing to move runners around two nights in a row at Wrigley Field. Who do they come home to play against? The team with the only offense worse than them in that particular category (Nationals: 1 run scored for every 2.38 hits). Given that Jacob Degrom is pitching for the Mets, Washington figures for a only a few hits in the first place. He is pretty much who he is, coming out of a quality start in Coors Field (few can do that) after throwing 14 innings with 8 hits and 1 run allowed against Miami and Philadelphia.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

Athletics’ left-hander Corey Irvin and Orioles’ right-hander Jorge Lopez aren’t headed for Cooperstown unless angels from above start guiding their every move. Irvin just pitched shutout ball over 6 innings in Detroit, a team that can’t hit left-handed pitching (worst average in what you call your Major League Baseball against lefties, .174). Today, the task is harder in a smaller ballpark against the Orioles’ lineup, not an All-Star collection of offensive talent but clearly better than Detroit’s, overall and against lefties. For his part, Lopez must pitch to the hottest team in baseball, lineup that has contributed to a current 11-game winning streak and is averaging better than 6 runs per game on the road. After getting 7 hits in their first 15 at-bats against Lopez with only 1 strikeout, the Oakland batters were probably thinking, ‘Can’t wait to face this guy again!’

Rating: 5 Unit MLB Total of the Day

Right-hander Alex Cobb (1-0, 4.63 ERA) will start for the Angels today after having his previous start pushed back due to unspecified reasons. Cobb was initially slated to start on Sunday but that game was postponed after the Minnesota Twins had COVID-19 issues. Cobb last started on April 12, allowing three runs on four hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in a 10-3 road win over the Kansas City Royals. He is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA over three career starts against the Astros, whom he last faced on July 31, 2017, while with the Rays. Consider that the over is 19-8-1 in Angels last 28 games as an underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets have dropped the first two games of this series and to help them avoid being swept, they start a Padres reject the Cubs have hit for a .447 Batting Average Against. In only 26 at-bats against Joey Lucchesi, Chicago batters have done a heck of a lot of damage: 15 hits (including 5 doubles, 2 home runs), 8 RBI. Yesterday we noted how the Mets have been extremely inefficient on offense, with MLB’s second lowest Hits per Run ratio of 2.34 hits for every 1 run scored. They went out and got 10 hits, 4 runs, which is 2.5 hits for every run scored. True to form! We’re not making it up here, ya’ know? Trevor Williams has made three starts for the Cubs. They sandwiched 13-4 and 5-3 wins vs. Atlanta and Milwaukee in which he totaled 11 innings, 6 hits and 3 runs allowed, in between a lousy start in Pittsburgh, against the Pirates team he abandoned after last season. Pittsburgh made their former teammate of five seasons pay for his disloyalty. It happens. As it should. Well, to be fair, the Pirates wanted to send him to Triple-A in November but he opted for free agency instead.

Rating: 2 Units

Indians right-hander Aaron Civale (3-0, 2.18 ERA) looks to continue his winning ways when he gets the nod today. He allowed one run on five hits in six innings of a 4-2 victory over the White Sox on April 15. Civale will be opposed by Yankees right-hander Domingo German (0-2, 9.00 ERA), who will take the mound for his first start since April 10. He was optioned to the alternate training site after the contest. German, 28, sports an 0-2 record with a 5.63 ERA in three career starts versus Cleveland.

Rating: 2 Units

Neither of today’s starters qualifies as being close to an ace, you’d have to say. Each started against the other lineup in the teams’ series at Arizona recently. The Reds’ Hoffman threw 82 pitches in 4 1/3 innings, giving up 6 hits, 3 walks, 3 runs. The bullpen came in and did a Hoffman impersonation, allowing 5 runs in 3 2/3 innings. Arizona’s Taylor Widener has pitched shutout ball in 6-inning starts at Washington and San Diego, two lineups that are having serious problems scoring runs against anyone. in between, the Reds got 7 hits, 4 runs in 5 innings against him. The Reds’ 9 runs per game home offense was never going to continue to be that high, but they still lead MLB with 7.45 runs per home game.

Rating: 2 Units

There aren’t many teams scoring less than the Cubs. But there is one! It’s the Mets, at 3.17 runs per game the lowest-scoring team in MLB (vs. 3.38 runs per game for Chicago). They got only 1 run here last night against Jake Arrieta and relievers, face another crafty righty tonight in Zach Davies. The Mets are challenging the Nationals for worst Hits per Run ratio at 2.34 hits for every run scored. The Cubs haven’t been getting many hits, but they’ve needed 1.72 of them to score a run, a more efficient number than the Mets, for sure. Mets’ lefty David Peterson looked great at home against the Phillies seven days ago but let’s see how he does in chilly Wrigley Field as a still-young lefty against a lineup due for much better.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros recently had four guys out on account of fear, including Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. They returned last night. Unfortunately for them, they ran into the Jon Gray buzz saw. Today’s Rockies starter is a step down from that and unfortunately for him, Austin Gomber throws left-handed. The Astros are hitting .301 vs. left-handed pitching, #2 in MLB behind the White Sox’ .302. They have 239 at-bats against lefties, second-most in MLB, making it as valid a sample size as it can be. Astros starter Jose Urquidy hasn’t pitched much in Coors Field — to only 6 batters, one of them a pitcher.

Rating: 2 Units

Phillies who have faced him are hitting only .163 against Giants’ righthander Anthony DeSclafani, with just 1 home run in 68 at-bats. DeSclafani has made three strong starts to begin his tenure with the Giants: 6, 6, 5 innings, allowing a total of only 2 runs, 16-4 K-BB. Good Zach Eflin has showed up in two of his three starts so far but bad Zach Eflin is always lurking. Giants batters are hitting .321 against Eflin with an OPS of .930.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s basically the same concept as last night. A low-hit, low run righthander starts for the Brewers, opposed by a pretty good righthander for the Padres who has gone 11 up, 11 down against Milwaukee batters who have faced him. Like Joe Musgrove last night, who went 7 innings but got the loss in a low scoring game (3-1), the Padres’ Chris Paddack won’t be pitching to Christian Yelich in the heart of the Brewers’ batting order. He’s injured and out. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes will be throwing to Fernando Tatis and his .118 batting average anchoring the heart of the Padres’ lineup. Burnes is doing his best Christy Matthewson impersonation with three 6-inning starts, allowing 2, 1 and 1 hit, a total of 0 walks and 30 Ks. Yowser. And yet, the Brewers have lost two of those games, 3-1 and 2-0. Hit the ball, why don’t you? Wait — not tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

If it turns out that Matt Shoemaker is actually opposing Luzardo, well… yeah, we’ll take him instead of the (usually) better Berrios, leaving it to the baseball gods and the A’s meager .204 team BA against right-handed pitching while getting bigger odds. One of the most frustrating things about playing baseball is targeting a pitcher you don’t think will get the job done, doesn’t, yet his team wins anyway. The A’s have won Jesus Luzardo’s last two starts and we were on the other side in one of them, vs. the Dodgers. He pitched “okay” in that game, but the Dodgers’ manager Dave “We Won a World Series Despite Me” Roberts decided that some of their best hitters shouldn’t play that day. Luzardo came back six days later to groove it over the plate to Arizona batters who frequently can’t hit water from a boat yet scored 5 runs on 6 hits in 2 2/3 innings against him. The Twins are happy to be out there playin’ ball again after their most recent games were called on account of fear, with a rested and ready bullpen.

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Year

Even though Logan Webb had been placed on the injured list because of side effects from the COVID-19 vaccine, he's expected to start Tuesday. Webb (0-1, 4.76 earned run average) will be making his fourth appearance and his third start. Webb has never faced the Phillies. The Phillies will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (1-2, 3.00 ERA), who will be making his fourth start. After a strong opening start, Wheeler has allowed 17 hits in the last two, both losses. In Wheeler's career against the Giants, he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts. Consider that the Over is 12-5-1 in Phillies last 18 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Matt Harvey is pitching tonight for his latest team, a perennial bottom-dweller in the American League East. Apparently, they are striving to maintain their reputation and standing in the world with acquisitions such as this. Miami’s Nick Neidert has been opposed by Atlanta’s Charlie Morton and the Mets’ Taijuan Walker in his two starts. Morton is an established ace, Walker was a highly sought-after guy at the trading deadline last season whom Toronto couldn’t keep after adding him at the 2020 deadline. Walker had a 1.37 ERA in six starts for the Blue Jays after leaving Seattle, and the Mets have won 3-2 and 4-3 games in his first two starts for them. The Orioles are 1-2 when Harvey starts, and his longest stint was 5 innings with 7 hits allowed. He had a 2.74 WHIP for the Royals in 11 2/3 innings last season. He made four starts for them, three relief appearances, yet totaled only 11 2/3 innings. He could use all the support they can possibly give him but the Orioles lose their DH in a National League ballpark. Marlins who have faced Harvey are 7-for-17 against him (.390). Nobody on the Orioles has faced Neidert. Mystery man.

Rating: 2 Units

His former team, the Pirates, beat Joe Musgrove one start after he pitched his no-hitter. But he pitched 4 innings of 1-run ball in that game, not bad at all. Musgrove was lifted for pinch-hitter after 81 pitches in that game because he’d been allowed to throw 121 during his no-hitter. He can keep up the good work against the Yelich-less Brewers lineup. Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff faces a tougher task than in his last two starts against the Cubs, in which he allowed only 4 hits in 13 innings with 14-1 K-BB. But that was nothing to sneeze at, eh? Both starters are backed by mighty fine bullpens, Milwaukee’s being better than it’s 4.57 ERA and the Padres with the #2 relief WHIP of 1.03 with an ERA of 2.41, the NL’s lowest.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Duffy

The Royals will host the Tampa Bay Rays for the start of a three-game series Monday night. Matheny will count on left-hander Danny Duffy (2-0, 0.75 ERA) to repeat his performance from his first two games, in which he pitched six innings both times. Duffy has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings. Last Tuesday, in his most recent outing, he allowed one run in six innings against the Los Angeles Angels and held them to 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. On his 100th pitch of the night, he struck out Jack Mayfield on a 95-mph elevated fastball with the bases loaded to end the top of the sixth inning. Duffy is 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay.

NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Flaherty

The Cardinals have won all three of Jack Flaherty’s starts and before the season is over, he’ll probably be a pitcher with whom bettors will have to lay -160 or more quite often. His teammates got Nola’d yesterday by the Phillies ace. They also got shut out over 6 innings by Washington’s Joe Ross, five days ago, similar to how Ross’ Washington teammates had been stymied by Flaherty the day before. Ross has yet to give up a run this season. Joe Ross is suddenly an ace? Joe Ross is as good as Aaron Nola? Or Jack Flaherty? Probably not. If Joe Ross > or = Aaron Nola or Jack Flaherty, then we’re the Amazing Criswell. Meanwhile, the Nationals rank dead last in MLB in a category called Hits per Run. They have 2.48 hits for every run scored. They made Madison Bumgarner look good yesterday, getting only 2 hits and 1 run in 5 innings against a pitcher who’d been giving up 7 hits and 6 runs in less then 5 innings. The Cardinals have been much more efficient at the plate: 1.54 hits for every run scored (#3 in MLB).

NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs are hitting .168 against right-handed pitching, too low to be believed as a level they’ll remain at but it is what it is right now. Their OPS of .585 is a heck of a lot lower than the #29 OPS rank of Colorado. So, go Bryce Wilson, go. The 23-year-old was called up in September last season (when he was 22), had nothing but 1- or 0-run starts including a playoff outing against the Dodgers in which he lasted 6 innings and gave up only 1 hit in a 10-2 victory when matched against Clayton Kershaw. The big stage didn’t get to him then, so an ESPN nationally televised game against a lineup that is essentially the opposite of the Dodgers should be a piece o’ cake, too. Kyle Hendricks is ol’ reliable for Chicago and has strung together season WHIPs of 1.08, 1.16, 0.98, 1.19, 1.15, 1.13, 1.00 for them prior to this season, in which his first start stunk and his second start was 6 innings of shutout ball.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacob deGrom gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, but the New York Mets have another pitcher worthy of headlines. Marcus Stroman (2-0, 0.75 ERA) has proven to be a more than adequate No. 2 in New York's rotation, putting together a 2-0 record with a 0.75 ERA in two starts this season. He'll get his third official start when the Mets wrap up a three-game series with the Colorado Rockies in Denver. The Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela (1-2, 7.07 ERA) to the mound for the third game in the last two days. A snowstorm postponed Friday's opener, so the teams played a doubleheader on Saturday.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals’ Brady Singer had three very good starts towards the end of last season, 8-, 6- and 7-inning 11-1, 4-0 and 3-1 wins against Cleveland, and Detroit twice. But maybe it had something to do with the relatively weak opposing lineups. His two starts this season have totaled only 8 1/3 innings, in which he has allowed 12 hits and 10 runs. (Against the Indians last year, he went 8 innings and gave up only 1 hit and 0 runs.) The Royals are atop the American League Central with an 8-5 record, but a Run Differential of only +1. Robbie Ray was a hard-luck, 3-1 loser against Yankees’ ace Gerritt Cole in New York earlier this week but he gave up only 3 hits in 5 innings, the three runs coming on two home runs by back-up catcher Kyle Higashioka (who should probably be the Yankees’ #1 catcher, but we digress). Four Blue Jays relievers threw three innings of shutout ball after Ray left. Toronto’s National League lefty reclamation project has been working out well, with Steven Matz improving to 3-0 after he beat the Royals 5-1 in the first game of yesterday’s double-header.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

“The Giants are getting a much-needed addition to the rotation with Alex Wood set to take the hill against the Miami Marlins on Sunday…” So says some cliche-ridden report (‘much-needed’, and ‘take the hill,’ geez). Whatever. Maybe he’ll pitch a great game and help prevent them from being swept in this three-game series. But the Reds and Dodgers didn’t want him, and the Dodgers’ disposal of him came after re-acquiring him from Cincinnati before the start of last season. The Giants signed Wood to a one-year, $3 million contract for 2021 and he thanked them for it by opening the season on the injured list, which is par for the course for a Major League pitcher. Wood throws left; so far in 2021 the Marlins happen to be hitting .310 against lefties, #3 in MLB with the #1 OPS of .922. Giants’ batters haven’t faced Pablo Lopez since May, 2019, when he went 6 innings throwing 4-hit, 1-run ball against them on this field.

Rating: 2 Units

After a strong start the Astros have hit the skids, losing their last six in a row (-$525 overall). The Mariners are top the AL West having won 7 of their last 10 (+$650) and they'll catch a generous underdog price vs. Zack Greinke, who's been average at best in  three starts so far (4.08 ERA). Seattle is averaging close to 5.0 runs per game at the plate, so look for them to stay hot when they square off against Houston tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Big Game Darvish, he is not. Yu Darvish spent a half season with the Dodgers and couldn’t cut it in the clutch. The Dodgers who’ve faced him since are only
2-for-27, a terrible .042 Batting Average, but the sample is small and he’s in a match-up against Clayton Kershaw. The Padres are coming off a loss in the first game of this series in which they used 9 relief pitchers. Hello? They fancy themselves as worthy challengers to the Dodgers in the NL West, and for the eventual National League pennant. But they’ve lost 10 of the last 14 games against L.A. and put too much pressure on themselves. Kershaw won’t be available for as small a lay as this very often. Hardly ever. Gotta get him now, before he goes on the injury list because of his shoulder, elbow, forearm, back, blister, neck, finger, or…

Rating: 5 Units

MLB Total of the Month

Pittsburgh right-hander Trevor Cahill (0-1, 8.00 ERA) is scheduled to face Milwaukee left-hander Brett Anderson (1-1, 4.50 ERA).  Consider that the over is 21-8-2 in Pirates last 31 during game 2 of a series, 34-15-2 in Pirates last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 36-17-1 in Pirates last 54 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

The run sequence for the Indians in their last five games is now: 3, 2, 0, 4, 3 after last night’s 10-3 defeat. The Reds’ run sequence in their home ballpark is 6, 9, 12, 5, 14, 11, 10. They’ve scored more runs in every single home game than the Indians have in any of their last five games. The Reds continue to be the top-hitting home team in MLB, with a .321 batting average at — what’s it called this year? — oh, still Great American Ball Park. That’s nice. The Indians haven’t faced Sonny Gray since he was struggling for the Yankees in 2018, and he beat them 5-2. Tristan McKenzie has made it to the fourth inning in his two starts for the Indians, in 4-3 and 3-0 losses to the Royals and White Sox. Like Logan Allen last night, they’re asking him to retire a bunch of the hottest hitting home team hitters in the game right now, backed by what stacks up as less than average run support.

Rating: 2 Units

With an assist from facing Matt Harvey and the Orioles yesterday, the Mariners arrive home 8-5 in first place in the American League West (the Astros are 6-6). Something about playing two games in Baltimore yesterday, then flying 3,000 miles to play another tonight against the Astros, makes it seem like they won’t be at their physical peak, or at least just a little bit off, or at least not as prepared as they could be compared to the Astros, who were off yesterday, already in Seattle, not using four different relief pitchers as the Mariners did to nail down a doubleheader sweep. Houston is the only team in the AL West with a positive run differential (+11) and although it’s early, they’re 1-5 home and 5-1 on the road, the road being the place where they supposedly couldn’t win games last season (well they won only 9 of them, vs. 23 losses, so, yeah. But these things tend to turn, so why do we even bring it up?) In the Cleveland-Cincinnati forecast above, we referenced the Astros having the most at-bats vs. left-handed pitchers so far this season. They happen to have the #1 team batting average against lefties, which is a very healthy .333 along with a .918 OPS. Into that, throws Mariners’ lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

Rating: 2 Units

The 9-6 Padres are going with a bullpen night to open this home series against the 11-2, first-place Dodgers and why not? Their relief crew has a 1.94 ERA so far, lowest in MLB, and they’ll have would-be aces Yu Darvish and Blake Snell starting for them at home on Saturday and Sunday. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler gave up 3 solo homers to the Padres in one of his early 2020 starts, but those were the only 3 hits the Padres got in the 5 innings that Buehler pitched in the ballgame. The next time Buehler faced them, he went 4 innings, allowed 2 hits and 1 run and the Dodgers’ bullpen — no slouch itself — slammed the  door shut for the next 5 innings of a 5-1 win. Buehler has a 0.83 WHIP, 0 walks from his two 2021 starts that went 6 innings apiece.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds have only 65 at-bats against left-handed pitchers so far this season, fewer than everyone except the Mets and Brewers. (To compare, the Astros and Indians have 195 and 187 at-bats vs. lefties). Cincinnati’s ho-hum numbers in such a short sample don’t mean much, and they are built to do just fine against them. They are returning to a home ballpark where they put up 6, 9, 12, 5, 14, 11 runs in their first six games before going out on the road at Arizona and San Francisco. The Indians got a 2-2 series split in Chicago against the White Sox, but they topped out at only 4 runs in a 3, 2, 0, 4 sequence. They ask young lefty Logan Allen to throw in a stadium where the home team is hitting .320. More power to him if he can make his way through this lineup after beating the Royals 5-2, and losing 2-0 to the Tigers in a pair of 5-inning starts. The Indians have a .192 team BA against righthanders, and in 32 plate appearances a .157 BA against the Reds’ Jeff Hoffman.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nationals are off an embarrassing 11-6 loss to the D'backs. But they should bounce back tonight behind Max Scherzer, who is 7-0 with a 2.85 ERA in nine starts against his former team. At 3-7, the Nats could certainly use a quality outing from Scherzer here. He delivered one his last time out, allowing just one run and three hits in six innings. That wasn't enough to beat the Dodgers, but a similar effort should allow for a win against tonight's opponent. Arizona pitching has allowed six or more runs in three consecutive games entering tonight. So there is hope for Washington's hitters. They'll face Taylor Widener, who was not as effective in his second start as he was in the first. There haven't been a ton of strikeouts by Widener thus far. Despite losing, Washington had more hits than Arizona last night. I can't see them losing two straight as big favorites.

Rating: 2 Units

While Detroit just pulled off a somewhat shocking three-game sweep in Houston, I don't see them continuing to win as they fly out to Oakland Thursday night. The A's are on a four-game win streak, two of those wins over the Astros and then the other two against Arizona. They've averaged more than seven runs per game during the win streak. The Tigers will start Tarik Skubal in tonight's opener. He has not been good in either start thus far, particularly the last one where he allowed six runs and three homers.  Oakland is bound to turn around a 1-6 home record. Sean Manaea had a strong outing his last time on the mound as he held Houston to one run over six innings. Manaea has a 2.84 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: against Harvey

Matt Harvey is pitching for somebody today. Seems like a good enough reason to be on the other side, whoever it is, given that the Orioles are a perpetually losing franchise. It happens to be the Mariners, who are 6-5. Although Seattle’s run differential is -11, Baltimore’s -9 isn’t much better. Harvey has a fine chance to put Bumgarner numbers. His first two outings for Baltimore: 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits and 1 walk; 5 innings, 7 hits and 1 walk. He has allowed 6 runs in his 10 2/3 innings and his ERA and WHIP of 5.59 and 1.55 would figure to stay where they are, or rise, during however long his tenure with the Orioles may last. Although Marco Gonzalez’s two starts have been worse than Harvey’s, they’ve been almost too bad to be believed given his overall decent form from 2018-20 with Seattle.

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Rating: 2 Units

Marlins’ lefty Trevor Rogers has started 3-0 and 1-4 games for them so far. He has allowed only 5 hits in 10 innings, whiffing 16. As a second-season 23-yearold, he has an opportunity for big form improvement in 2021. Braves home games are 5-0-1 Over so far. No Unders yet. So, naturally, we have to be the wise guys to anticipate the first Under at what is apparently called “Truist Park,” but who really cares? May as well call it Turner Field for all we care. Anyway, the Marlins are averaging 8.3 runs per games so far in this series, being 3-0 in it. Two of them went 10 innings and they scored 14 runs in the other. Time for Ian Anderson to step up and stop the nonsense, against a lineup that scored only 5 runs on 8 hits in 34 at-bats against him last season in three appearances, which had scores of 5-4 (the first one, which won’t work today!), 2-0 and 4-2.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Wheeler

We were prepared to be against the Mets when Peterson was supposed to pitch against these Phillies on Monday when opposed by Chase Anderson. It didn’t happen due to rainout. They’re asking Peterson to beat Zach Wheeler this time, a tougher task, given that Wheeler and Aaron Nola are head-and-head for best pitcher on the Phillies. As noted on Monday, lefty Peterson, had a decent rookie season (6-2, 3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). But he is now a candidate for the ol’ sophomore jinx. It started with his first outing, 4 innings of 7-hit, 6-run ball in Philadelphia last week (that’s what we call a “Madison Bumgarner game.”) The Phillies should not be saddened to see him again so soon.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Berrios
What’s a stopper for? To stop losing streaks. The Twins have lost three straight, two to the Mariners and one yesterday afternoon vs. these Red Sox. Their bullpen has been blowing things late. If it fails again, we can hate their bullpen and curse it for days. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s ace, their stopper. He usually fades late in the season but last we looked, it’s still way early. The Twins are hitting .295 against left-handed pitchers (Rodriguez), #4 in MLB in that category. The Red Sox are hitting an MLB-leading .303 against right-handed pitching, but Berrios is no ordinary right-hander. He nohit the Brewers over 6 innings in his first start and has a 0.69 WHIP after two, with 20-3 K-BB.
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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Berrios

What’s a stopper for? To stop losing streaks. The Twins have lost three straight, two to the Mariners and one yesterday afternoon vs. these Red Sox. Their bullpen has been blowing things late. If it fails again, we can hate their bullpen and curse it for days. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s ace, their stopper. He usually fades late in the season but last we looked, it’s still way early. The Twins are hitting .295 against left-handed pitchers (Rodriguez), #4 in MLB in that category. The Red Sox are hitting an MLB-leading .303 against right-handed pitching, but Berrios is no ordinary right-hander. He nohit the Brewers over 6 innings in his first start and has a 0.69 WHIP after two, with 20-3 K-BB.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: go against Keller

The Angels find themselves atop the AL West, having dominated right-handed pitching up to this point (6-1, +$610, averaging 6.1 runs per game in those contests). Today they'll face off against Brad Keller, who has been rocked in two starts this year (19.31 ERA). LA has had 26 hits in the first two games of the series, so we'll lay the short price on the visitor in this afternoon's rubber match.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Castillo

The Reds won’t always be averaging as high as 6.9 runs per game but there’s no denying that they’ve been hitting a lot better than last season. And, even when they don’t hit much, like last night, they won a game 3-0. Luis Castillo is generally considered to be their best pitcher and tonight he’s available at underdog odds, throwing against a lineup whose subjects that have faced him have combined for a .119 Batting Average Against him — 4 hits in 31 at-bats. Kevin Gausman has thrown well in his two starts so far but the Giants didn’t hit well enough for him to get credit for a Win in either game, and they lost one of them. Cincinnati’s Joey Votto is 4-for-5 with a homer, Mike Moustakas 4-for-10 with a homer, Nick Castellano 4-for-16 but with 2 homers lifetime against Gausman.

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Rating: 2 Units

The Indians hit town yesterday 5-4 in first place in the American League Central division. The 5-4 record was all against Kansas City and Detroit, the two rear bringer- uppers from way back. Or, at least the last few seasons. Last night, Cleveland lost here to the White Sox. So now they’re 5-5. Although Shane Bieber is a mighty fine pitcher, Lucas Giolito has evolved into an upper echelon guy in his own right. Also, as the White Sox have ridden a gradual improvement curve with maturing young talent all over the roster, the Indians have divested themselves of a heck of a lot of proven Major League talent over the last few seasons. Last night, and their next 18 games, will all be against these White Sox, the first-place Reds, these White Sox again, the Yankees, the Twins, and these White Sox again. Gulp. We shall see, then, how this year’s version of the Indians stacks up against opponents for whom big things are expected.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Strasburg

The Cardinals continued to struggle at the plate in last night's series opener, losing 5-2. Stephen Strasburg looked very sharp in his first outing of
2021, tossing six scoreless innings vs. Atlanta. Jack Flaherty has been far less impressive in  his two starts (5.23), even though the Cardinals prevailed in both. We'll take the Nationals and their veteran righty as a small underdog tonight.

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Rating: 2 Units

Madison Bumgarner has basically been a 4 1/3-inning, 7-hit, 6-run guy since being acquired by the Suckerba… er, the Diamondbacks. It’s not what they had in mind when they signed him for $80-something million for four years. He can cry all the way to the bank twice a month while the franchise cries every fifth day (and that’s when he’s not out injured). Arizona is 3-8 when he starts for them. Luke Weaver, who makes a lot less money than Bumgarner, took a no-hitter into the seventh inning yesterday for the D-Backs. In the typical Bumgarner performance, the no-hitter is ruined in the first inning, the shutout shortly thereafter, the chance of winning decreasing sharply by the time of his early exit. The A’s finally turned the wheel in their direction Friday and Saturday, first tripling runs 6-2 against Houston, then, when they beat the Astros 7-3, finally out-hitting somebody (11 to 9). Whatever invisible force that was holding them back in their first seven games may have been overcome. We can finally eyeball them as a legitimate wagering tool and not a ‘play against or pass’ type of entity.

Rating: 5 Units

Cleveland's rotation owns a 2.70 ERA, and the Indians will open the series with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 2>45 ERA), who is making his seventh career start. McKenzie went 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in six starts last season and began this season by allowing a run, two hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings during last Monday's loss to Kansas City. The right-hander is starting against Chicago for the first time. His only appearance against the White Sox was a two-inning stint when he struck out three on Sept. 23. McKenzie is getting the start though the Indians will monitor his workload closely since he went two years without pitching due to injuries and threw 33 1/3 innings last season.  Consider that the OVER is 7-3 in White Sox last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter, 7-3 in White Sox last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 9-4 in White Sox last 13 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami's Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 1.50 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa (0-0, 0.00) in a battle of right-handers. The Braves are fresh from winning two of three games against the Philadelphia Phillies, losing 7-6 Sunday on a controversial ninth-inning sacrifice fly. Philadelphia's Alec Bohm appeared to miss home plate on his slide, but he was ruled safe and the call wasn't reversed after a replay review. Ynoa earned another shot as the team's No. 5 starter after his strong effort against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. He threw a career-best five innings, and allowed no runs on two hits while striking out five. It was only the second time he has thrown more than three innings. Ynoa threw his fastball as high as 99 mph and averaged 96, and his slider, which he threw half the time, kept the Nationals baffled.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Ponce de Leon

The Brewers pushed across an average of only 4.02 runs per game in 2020, #26 in the 30-team MLB. So far this season, they’re scoring less, 3.62 runs per game. The pitcher they face, Daniel Ponce de Leon, has been near dominant against them in limited exposure: 36 at bats, 3 singles allowed, 15 Ks to 4 BB. That’s a .057 Batting Average, .157 OPS. The Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmitt are hitting .556 and .400 against Brewers’ starter Brett Anderson. That’s a tough 2-3 in the home team’s batting order for the guy to try to get past.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Flexen

Pitchers who’ve escaped the misery of being a Met are doing rather well. Steven Matz is 2-0 with Toronto and Chris Flexen pitched 5 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball vs. the Giants in his first start for the Mariners last Saturday. He’s mostly a mystery to the Twins batters, who’ve never faced him at this level. Matt Shoemaker won’t always get 15 runs worth of support while pitching in his hometown against the team he’s dominated (Detroit), as was the case in his last start. Although Shoemaker pitched in Seattle’s division with the Angels, only Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger have ever faced him. Seager must be thinking, ‘Yeah, you’re that ordinary guy with the long black beard and if a mediocre veteran like me, a .255 lifetime hitter who actually hasn’t hit for an average that high since 2016 could hit 2 home runs against you in his career, then my teammates should be able to tag you well enough.’

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Allen

Allen, who won a rotation spot with the Cleveland Indians in spring training, will make his second start this season against the visiting Detroit Tigers today. The lone left-hander in the rotation, Allen held Kansas City to two runs in five innings on Monday but was charged with the loss as the Indians were blanked. Allen prepared himself for a run at a rotation spot by shedding weight and working on his mechanics. The result was an 0.64 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 14 spring training innings.  Allen became Cleveland's first left-handed starter since Ryan Merritt in 2017. He retired nine of the last 10 batters he faced. Jose Urena will start for Detroit. Urena's Tigers debut on Monday was a disaster, as he allowed six runs (five earned) and four hits with four walks in three innings to Minnesota. Cleveland has slugged its way to victories in the first two games of the series. Designated hitter Franmil Reyes has blasted three homers, and the Indians clubbed a total of five long balls in their 11-3 win on Saturday.

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Rating: 2 Units

The Padres are 2-3 in their last five games, went to extra innings for one of the wins, and their run production in those five games maxed out at 3. That’s stretching it very thin for a -175 road favorite, wouldn’t you say? Major offensive cog Fernando Tatis is out injured after he hurt his shoulder swinging. Derek Jeter never went on the DL after swinging at a pitch, did he? Just curious. Cal Ripken, Jr.? That ever happen to him? Don’t think so! Major league ballplayers of the 21st century, what a group, eh? Anyway, the Rangers were swept in a four game series at San Diego last year and one of the losses was 14-4, started by tonight’s starter Jordan Lyles. Tatis drove in 7 of the 14 runs. His absence might have a negative effect, right? Based on their scoring average recently, it looks that way. Lyles gets another shot at the team that cast him aside in 2018.

Rating: 2 Units

Urquidy (0-0, 4.15 ERA) will start the series finale for the Astros on Saturday. He allowed two runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings in his season debut on April 4, a 9-2 victory over Oakland, marking the 13th time in 15 career appearances that Urquidy has allowed two or fewer runs. Right-hander Frankie Montas (0-1, 23.63 ERA) gets the start for Oakland. He took the loss in his season debut April 5 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing seven runs on seven hits and three walks with four strikeouts over 2 2/3 innings. Montas has dropped three consecutive starts dating to last season and is 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) against the Astros.

Rating: 2 Units

Although the A’s were once again outhit last night, it wasn’t by twice as many. Only 8 to 6. But the Astros tripled runs against them, 6-2. A 1-7 Oakland team consistently outhit, consistently outscored, can’t be anything but a go-against target until they get the wheel turned in their direction. They’re hitting .170 as a team, to Houston’s .289. They have 3 home runs and 10 doubles in 8 games, to Houston’s MLB-leading 15 homers with 17 doubles in 7 games. Five of the seven Astros games have been against Oakland pitching, which Dusty Baker’s boys have been feasting upon and finding to be super delicious.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher:  Musgrove

The Padres came into 2021 expecting to challenge the Dodgers for NL West supremacy. However, things have gone a bit sideways since a 3-0 start. Not only have they lost three of four, but Fernando Tatis Jr suffered when appears to be a significant shoulder injury. Still, we expect San Diego to easily defeat the Rangers on Friday. Padres' pitching has been great thus far as a 1.97 ERA leads the National league. Joe Musgrove gets the starting nod here after  throwing six shutout innings in his first outing. He allowed just three hits, no walks and had eight strikeouts, leading to a 7-0 win over Arizona. Although they have won three of their last four games, Texas is not going to be a good team this year. Kohei Arihara makes his second start after the first resulted in an 11-4 loss to Kansas City. The Rangers were 0-4 vs. San Diego last season, giving up a grand slam in every game. Don't overthink this one.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Wheeler

Charlie Morton is a pretty good pitcher but of tonight’s two starters, Zach Wheeler is the guy more likely to get through the opposing lineup one more time than the other if both are pitching to their best form. It already happened six days ago in Philadelphia when Wheeler threw 7 innings of 1-hit, shutout ball (with 10 Ks, 0 BB) against the Braves as Morton went 5 innings, giving up 6 hits and 3 runs. Last season, Wheeler finally learned how to beat the Braves after leaving the Mets, a franchise that has developed a chronic habit of losing to Atlanta, and he didn’t slack off in his first crack at them this season. He was born and raised in the Atlanta area, a little extra miscellaneous thingie that flies under the radar. Bryce Harper can slap an ownership tag on Morton: 7-for-12 lifetime with 6 RBIs. Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman is hitting .447 lifetime against Wheeler but Freddie Freeman is last season’s NL Most Valuable Player, who obviously thought he could wave the award in front of pitchers this season and repeat as he enters this game 2-for-18 (.111). Most of the Braves’ bats have been quiet; the team has a .170 batting average with a .552 OPS, both numbers third lowest in MLB.

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Rating: 2 Units

It is with determined anger and revenge that we do this after the A’s were once again out-hit (8-5) but managed to win their first game of the season last night, 4-3 in extra innings as the Dodgers decided it wasn’t necessary to play Mookie Betts or Cody Bellinger. We go against this 1-6 team as it hits the road to face the opponent that just swept them 4-0 at home, outscoring them 35-9 in the process. Sure, that was an over-the-top dominance, but it’s not like the A’s lineup has done anything so far that would give anybody serious confidence in it, and the pitchers have mostly been bad.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Play Against Stripling

National League pitcher comes to the American League. They often leave a trail of devastation against their new teams. Ross Stripling’s first few outings for the Blue Jays after they acquired him late last season produced a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Lovely. The Yankees knocked him out after 3 1/3 innings last week. The Angels have seen him before, although not last season. Mike Trout is 5-for-7 against Stripling, so if nobody else does anything — not likely — Trout is capable of carrying them. For this current period, Blue Jays’ ‘home’ games are being played at their spring training site in the great, courageous state of Florida that everyone should admire. However, if you read somewhere that this will give Toronto some sort of an advantage because they “know the ballpark,” please burn the paper or smash the computer screen and ignore that nonsense. People who should know better were saying the same things prior to last season when the Texas Rangers moved into a new ballpark they’d practiced in, then proceeded to be the worst team in Major League Baseball.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Lynn

Matheny will send Brad Keller to the mound for his second start. Keller lasted 1 1/3 innings against the Rangers on Opening Day. Keller allowed six runs on nine hits, but he didn't get the decision because the Royals came back twice and eventually won 14-10. La Russa will hand the ball to Lance Lynn, who pitched for Matheny with the Cardinals from 2012-17. He was 71-46 in those six seasons. The White Sox are his fourth team since leaving St. Louis. He pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowing two runs (none earned) on six hits in his first start for Chicago on Saturday. He struck out six and didn't walk a batter in the 5-3 loss to the Angels. The White Sox are still carrying a hot bat in Yermin Mercedes, who set a major league record with hits in his first eight career at-bats.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Senzatela

Former Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner signed a five year, $85 million contract with the Arizona Suckerbac… er, Diamondbacks, before last season. He ‘followed through’ on it by totaling only 41 2/3 innings in nine starts, with a 1.44 WHIP and 6.48 ERA. Their best pitcher Zac Gallen has been hurt, so they allowed Bumgarner make his customary opening day start, in which he gave them more of the same slop for their money: 4 innings of 7-hit, 6-run ball with 2 home runs allowed at San Diego. He didn’t pitch in Coors Field last year. For the Giants in 2019, he totaled 11 innings in two starts at Coors,  allowing 16 hits and 8 runs, and that’s when he was doing all right overall. Rockies’ starter Antonio Senzatela was owned by the Dodgers here last week. Who isn’t? In five home starts last season, he had a 2.10 ERA in this ballpark and draws an easier assignment this evening.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Bauer

Could there be a more seemingly impossible scenario than being 0-6, getting hits doubled against you every night, runs doubled against you or more than doubled, and needing lefty Jose Lose-Ardo to come through for the team’s first win? Anything’s possible, but last night was a continuation of a terrible string of early games for Oakland (we’d call it “start” to the season but the start was over last week and now it’s Game 7), the latest of which was 5-1 Dodgers, who out-hit the A’s 11 to 5 last night. Oh, and we almost forgot, the pitcher they need to beat is Trevor Bauer, who had a 0.79 WHIP last season, 100-17 K-BB, and allowed 3 runs on 4 hits over 6 1/3 innings at Coors Field last weekend while making his first start in a Dodgers’ uniform. His new teammates push across nearly twice as many runs per game as the Reds’ batters did for him in 2020. Luzardo…ugh. Maybe he’ll improve, but for now the phrase, “Just put it over the plate and let ‘em hit it” seems to have been invented for him.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Hendricks

After delivering a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts last season and finishing ninth in National League Cy Young voting, Hendricks will look to improve in his second home start. He did not have a start shorter than 4 1/3 innings last season. In 23 career starts against the Brewers, Hendricks is 9-6 with a sparkling 2.84 ERA over 136 1/3 innings. It is his most starts and innings pitched against any team in his career. Run support for Hendricks will be a priority after the Cubs had just a fourth-inning double from Kris Bryant on Tuesday. Peralta gave the Brewers five scoreless innings, Brent Suter had three and Brad Boxberger had a scoreless ninth in his Brewers debut. Consider that Chicago is 70-29 in their last 99 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Giolito

The White Sox destroyed lefty starters last season and are already 2-0 against them this year. Stats like that tend to fluctuate from year to year but hey, sometimes they stay the same for a while. Only three Mariners have ever faced Lucas Giolito, none of them since he got really good because the White Sox and Mariners didn’t play each other in 2020 and his last game against them was in April, 2019, his second start of that year, before he hit his best stride in what was his breakout season.

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Rating: 2 Units

What’d we say yesterday? Something about the winless Oakland A’s getting hits and runs doubled against them, right? By the end of last night’s game against the Dodgers, hits were 14 to 6 for LA, runs 10 to 3. Say, that’s more than doubled! Tonight, the Oakland batters must face Clayton Kershaw, who we hear has been a pretty good pitcher for most of his career. He is coming off a loss at Coors Field — not the first pretty good pitcher to have been hammered by the home team in that ballpark. Won’t be the last. Eventually, the A’s will stop losing games by 7 or 8 runs a night but until that begins to take shape, why expect Chris Bassitt to hound the Dodgers?

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds are going for their first 4-1 start since 2016. They've won three in a row and just opened this series with a seventh consecutive home victory over the Pirates, 5-3 yesterday. During the three-game win streak, the Reds have outscored opponents 26-10. Pittsburgh is 1-3 and hoping to avoid its first 1-4 start since 2015. They've lost three in a row and are widely expected to be the worst team in all of baseball. So betting against them early in the season (when prices are still relatively low) would be wise. They have scored all of 12 runs so far. Ke'Bryan Hayes, who was going to be the centerpiece of the lineup, is on the 10-day DL. Veteran Wade Miley is on the hill for the Reds today. Given the Pirates' issues scoring runs, this should be a relatively easy outing. The Reds' bullpen has also been great so far (2.55 ERA, 0.91 WHIP). Pittsburgh is 18-38 its L56 games vs. a LH starter. Trevor Cahill starts opposite Miley. He is 0-2 vs. Cincy in 15 career appearances and did not get in a lot of reps during Spring Training.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: May

The A’s pitchers allowed 8, 9, 9, 9 runs to the Houston hitters going 0-4 on this field last weekend and now the Dodgers are knocking on the door. Okay, good luck with that. Frankie Montas is a better pitcher than anybody we know personally but he’s a guy with a 1.51 WHIP from last season pitching against one of MLB’s top run producing lineups, backed by a bullpen that hasn’t done anything right yet . Moving from Coors Field to Oco Coliseum surely reduces the potential for the Dodgers to pile on the runs, but it hasn’t aided Oakland’s ability to produce them — only 9 in four games against the Astros. LA starter Dustin May was matched against Montas at Dodger Stadium last season in a game won by the Dodgers, 7-2, when they out-hit the A’s 11 to 5. Didn’t we win a game against the A’s a couple of days ago after noting that their hits were being doubled by Astros hits?

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Rating: 2 Units

Pitcher: Garcia

‘Angels’ Jose Quintana dominating in Cactus League play.’ That’s nice, Cactus League references. But tonight, a guy who’d been injured in 2019, then made only one (1) start in 2020, makes his first start as an Angel, a franchise that will take a chance on any pitcher because none of them ever work out for them and they’ve been so desperate that they actually signed Matt Harvey two years ago, and went to Japan for a pitcher who also plays the field and bats. They will let anyone pitch for them in hopes he can get people out. Quintana faces the hottest lineup going. Hopefully, the 4-0 Astros won’t be in mourning about not being allowed to stay in Oakland to continue to pound that pitching staff into submission.

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Rating: 2 Units

Nick Castellanos' strong start is a big reason the Cincinnati Reds won their season-opening series against the St. Louis Cardinals. He also has been very good against the Pittsburgh Pirates during his career. Castellanos looks to stay hot and help the Reds to a third straight win against the Pirates at home on tonight. Cincinnati totaled 27 runs, 30 hits and belted six home runs while taking two of three from NL Central Division-favorite St. Louis. According to Elias Sports Bureau, it's the third time the Reds have scored at least that many runs through the first three games of a season. It's an especially strong start after the Reds ranked last in the majors in batting (.212) and 28th in average runs per game (4.05) in 2020. Castellanos went 6-for-11 with a pair of homers, a double, triple, six runs scored and five RBIs during the opening set.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (1-1, 2.91 ERA in 2020) is scheduled to oppose Zach Davies (7-4, 2.73 ERA in 2020) in a battle of right-handers. Keller, who turns 25 today, is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts against the Cubs. Consider that Pittsburgh is 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Chicago.

Rating: 2 Units

Twins’ ace Jose Berrios outdueled Brewers’ up-and-coming Corbin Burns yesterday in a 2-0 win but now Minnesota has used new closer Alex Colome in both games, making him a question mark for today. For our money, the Brewers had the better bullpen to start and would have the better bullpen to finish this particular game. The Milwaukee batters who’ve accumulated 73 at-bats against Michael Pineda have a .332 batting average, .520 Slugging Percentage, .887 OPS against him. An example of how good the Milwaukee bullpen can be: In Houser’s one start vs. Minnesota last season, a 4-2 loss, he allowed a third-inning grand slam to Edwin Rosario. Following Houser’s exit after 5 innings, Freddie Peralta pitched 4 innings of 1-hit, 8-0 K-BB shutout ball.

Rating: 2 Units w/ Singer

The Rangers will send Jordan Lyles to the mound Sunday as he tries to prove his 1-6 season in 2020 was not the pitcher he can be. He finished 2019 with a 7-1 record in his final 11 starts with Milwaukee, prompting the Rangers to sign him as a free agent following the season. But Lyles struggled throughout 2020, with a 1.56 WHIP. Manager Chris Woodward has decided to use him in a "tandem" role, piggybacking him with another pitcher to use up the innings normally assigned to the starter. For the Royals, Brady Singer will try to prove that the high expectations that come from a first-round selection in the 2018 draft and his debut two seasons later was the right choice. Singer had a solid 2020, finishing with a 4-5 record and a 4.06 ERA. But he finished strong, winning three of his last four, including allowing just one hit in eight innings in Cleveland. He then backed it up with a strong spring, going 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in four starts. In his last spring start, against Cleveland, he allowed just two hits -- only one out of the infield -- in five innings, striking out five against just one walk.

Do Not Play if Pitcher is different than actual

Rating: 2 Units w/ Skukal

Indians starter Aaron Civale was 4-6 with a 4.74 ERA last season, during which — it is reported — he “led” the American League in hits allowed (80), highest batting average against (.282), and tied for the league “lead” in hits allowed per nine innings (10.0). A pitcher doesn’t want to “lead” the league in any of these categories. Cleveland was 5-7 in Civale’s starts last season. And yet, they are favored at Comerica after losing the first two games of this series while totaling only 4 runs on 13 hits. When Civale “beat” the Tigers 10-5 last season, he allowed 8 hits and 4 runs in 6 innings, K-ing only 3. He happened to be matched against Ivan Nova on a bad day for Nova, whose bad days are worse than most other guys’ bad days. Tarik Skubal has no grand following but as a 24-year-old lefty with minimum exposure to the ordinary-hitting Indians (for 2 1/3 of his 32 rookie innings last year, 3 hits and 1 run allowed with 5 Ks and 1 BB), why not him?

Do Not Play if pitcher is different than actual

Rating: 2 Units

Major League mercenary Lance Lynn, making his first start for his fifth team (fifth in last five seasons) faced the Angels three times last season. The White Sox haven’t faced Alex Cobb since Moby Dick was a minnow, or, May of 2019 to be exact. Before that, it was September of 2016. Lots o’ water under those bridges. The home underdog knows what’s coming at them better than the road favorite does. The current members of the White Sox have combined for only 24 at-bats against Cobb. The White Sox brutalized lousy lefty Andrew Heaney yesterday, continuing their southpaw-shellacking trend of 2020. But they lost 4-3 Thursday when the Angels started righty Dylan Bundy, who threw a quality start against them.

Play only with Cobb

Rating: 2 Units

On a very hot, dry day at the neutral site of Dodger Stadium, Houston’s Lance McCullers had a bad post-season outing against the A’s last October, giving up three home runs among 8 hits and 5 runs in 4 innings. But we can use yesterday’s rallying cry with a slight adjustment: ‘Who won the game? Houston!’ They simply out-hit the A’s that day, 16 to 8, and outscored them 10-5. Very nice ratio, twice as many hits and twice as many runs. In that
game from October, there were a total of 6 home runs hit in 91-degree temps. Today’s game is in a bigger ballpark on a cool, damp day where the temperature won’t hit 60 degrees and McCullers can work his ol’ curveball better. Oakland lefty Cole Irvin was supposed to be the team’s #5 starter but Mike Fiers is injured and other stuff is going on so they’ve moved him up in the rotation, suddenly putting him in a stopper’s role with the team 0-2 after a
parade of other pitchers have, in two games, allowed 17 runs on 23 hits and 11 walks to happy Houston hitters. Irvin’s last two appearances in 2020 were 1 2/3 innings giving up 4 hits and 3 runs, and 1 inning giving up 5 hits and 4 runs.

Play only with McCullers

Rating: Units

The Marlins were underdog darlings last season. But when a team makes the post-season with a -41 run differential, people tend to miss the negative run differential part and see only ‘Hey, they’ll definitely improve now, because, well, I don’t know why, just because!’ Tonight, the superior team that played in the World Series last season lays only a teeny bit against a teeny-tiny home dog with much to prove, especially at the plate. The Marlins haven’t scored a run yet. Hard to win if you can’t score. Joey Wendle didn’t play for the Rays yesterday. He’s not injured or sick. He figures to be in the lineup tonight against Miami starter Pablo Lopez, because he’s 4-for-8 against him with a double and a homer. Ryan Yarbrough pitched 6 2/3 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball on this field last August in a 2-0 Rays win.

Don Not Play if Yarbrough does not pitch

Rating: 2 Units

Play with Keller

Both these teams finished near the bottom of the standings last year, and neither team is likely to be a factor in 2020. But the Royals got a boost from Brad Keller in 2020, who managed a 2.47 ERA in nine starts for KC (+$525). Texas was a dismal 6-24 outside of Arlington (-$1515) while the Royals were profitable vs. righties here at Kaufman Stadium. Look for the Royals to break through with an opening day win.

Rating: 2 Units

While the first two games of the 2020 World Series have flown "over" the number, Game 3 sets up as more of a pitchers "duel." The Dodgers turn to Walker Buehler, who has posted a 1.89 ERA and 19 K's over four playoff starts so far. The Rays counter with Charlie Morton, who is 3-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 17 K's in the playoffs. The "under" has hit in Buehler's last five starts and Morton has arguably been the best pitcher during the entire playoffs. Look for these two capable starters to battle deep and expect this total to fall "under" the number.

Rating: 2 Units

Clayton Kershaw gets the opportunity to set aside his postseason demons when he takes the ball for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night in Arlington, Texas. The two teams that compiled the best regular-season records in the majors will be on the field for the first neutral-site Fall Classic, but most of the focus will be on Kershaw as Los Angeles seeks its first World Series title since 1988. The left-hander is considered one of the top pitchers of his era and a sure Hall of Famer, but his postseason performances have been filled with blemishes. The three-time Cy Young Award winner and 2014 National League MVP is just 11-12 with a 4.31 ERA in 35 career postseason appearances (28 starts). He has made five World Series appearances (four starts) and is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA

Rating: 2 Units

Glasnow, 27, has provided good theatre by striking out 20 batters in 13 1/3 innings this postseason for the Rays, who have won each of his last 11 starts including the playoffs. Glasnow also won his lone career regular-season encounter against Houston after permitting one run on six hits in five innings in 2019. George Springer is 2-for-3 in a small sample size versus Glasnow, but Michael Brantley (0-for-8, two strikeouts) hasn't been as fortunate. Houston right-hander Zack Greinke will get the nod on Wednesday. The former AL Cy Young Award winner surrendered a pair of home runs and four runs total in 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision against the Oakland A's on Thursday. Greinke owns a 4-6 record with a 3.36 ERA in 17 career appearances (14 starts) versus Tampa Bay

The Astros saw Snell three times in last year's ALDS, beating him 3-1 in Game 2 behind a homer by Bregman and the pitching of Gerrit Cole. Snell's other two appearances were in relief, including getting two outs and a save in Game 4.  Snell also started once against Houston last year in the regular season, allowing homers to Altuve, Brantley and Springer on a 5-1 loss on Opening Day. He was opposed that time by Justin Verlander. The Astros lost Cole in free agency last offseason and won't have Verlander in this series following Tommy John surgery. Overall for his career, Snell has made six starts against the Astros in the regular season, going 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA.  Snell (1-1) has opened both previous series for the Rays, beating Toronto 3-1 in Tampa Bay's 2-0 sweep before losing 9-3 to the Yankees in what turned out to be a five-game series.  Valdez (2-0), meanwhile, had a Game 1 win in the Minnesota series and a Game 2 victory in the Oakland series, allowing just two runs and seven hits in 12 innings.  The 26-year-old has never faced the Rays, who will be making their first ALCS appearance since beating Boston 4-3 en route to the 2008 World Series.

Rating: 2 Units

Walker Buehler is expected to get the start here. The Padres were held to 2 or less runs in half of their ten games against the Dodgers this season. Buehler is 24-9 with a 3.15 ERA in his career. He held opponents to a .178 batting average this season. In his 7 post-season starts Buehler has a 2.90 ERA and a .170 BAA. The Padres rallied to get by the Cardinals in the Wild Card round but face a much tougher test here

Rating: 2 Units

The Houston Astros are heating up at the right time, first sweeping Minnesota in the Wild Card round before winning the opener of this best-of-five ALDS against Oakland. The Astros look to keep rolling today with left-hander Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) on the mound. Valdez held Minnesota to a pair of hits when working five innings out of the bullpen last Tuesday. He held Oakland to one earned run with nine Ks through seven frames earlier this season. As for A's starter Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.50 ERA), the left-hander has not pitched since September 23 and has allowed six runs on 13 hits in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts. Consider: Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 Divisional Playoff games. Athletics are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff games

Rating: 2 Units

New York's Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA) allowed two runs and struck out 13 in his victory over the Tribe. Cole has now allowed just five earned runs over his last five games. Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24) allowed seven runs over his last five starts for the Rays. Snell was sharp in his win over the Jays, allowing one hit over 5.1 innings, but he will have his hands full with this healthy and hard-hitting New York line-up. Snell has the propensity to give up the long-ball, which clearly doesn't bode well facing this talented opposing line-up.

Rating: 2 Units

The A's figure to have the advantage in Game 1, which will be played at Dodger Stadium. McCullers was sharp down the stretch but hasn't started  since 9/26. So, its been a layoff. Bassitt, who started Game 2 against the White Sox, was excellent all season and downright dominant down the stretch. He was 3-0 with a 0.34 ERA in September

Rating: 2 Units

Los Angeles enters these playoffs as the overwhelming favorite to win the World Series, and for good reason, as they had the best record and run differential in all of baseball during the regular season. They outscored teams by 136 runs in 60 games. Buehler gets the start in Game 1. He had a 0.67 WHIP at home this year and a 7-1 TSR overall. Milwaukee is a sub-.500 team that didn't even score more than three runs in any of its last eight games. Their Game 1 starter, Lindblom, has a 6.11 ERA on the road!

Rating: 2 Units

Bieber has an 8.31 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees and Cole is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts vs the Indians (teams are 3-2). In 2019,  Cole posted a 4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston. What's more, his final three starts of the current season saw him go 3-0 while pitching seven innings in each one. He gave up a modest 10 hits over those 21 innings and two ERs for a 0.67 ERA and a 24-3 KW ratio

Rating: 2 Units

Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in SEVEN of his eight starts (Cards are 6-2). He's pitched at least six innings in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). Wainwright has pitched well against the Royals in his 15-year MLB career, going 5-2 with a 3.96 ERA in 13 games (10 starts / Cards are 6-4). In fact, that's the most appearances and starts against any American League team, with the exception of the Astros, who were in the National League for the first seven years of Wainwright's career.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers posted three runs -- one earned -- with five hits, and walked four times and struck out nine over six innings against scheduled Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA) during a 3-2 win on Aug. 25. Castillo, though, has been stellar in September, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA. The right-hander allowed three hits and struck out 10 with a walk over seven innings of a 1-0 win against Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Milwaukee's Ryan Braun is 1-for-12 against Castillo.  Milwaukee is 1-7 its last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cincinnati has won its last six home games vs. righties

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale (3-5, 3.80 ERA) is searching for a spark after posting an 0-3 record in his last five trips to the mound. Civale, who last won on Aug. 19 following a complete-game gem, sports a 2-2 record with a 3.38 ERA in four career outings against Chicago. The 25-year-old allowed one run on five hits in seven innings of a hard-luck 2-0 setback on Aug. 7.  Chicago right-hander Dane Dunning (2-0, 2.33 ERA) has made quite the impact since entering the majors. Dunning recorded his second straight win on Tuesday after allowing two runs (one earned) over seven innings in a 6-2 victory against Minnesota. The White Sox have won all five of Dunning's starts. The 25-year-old will be getting his first look at Cleveland in his career on today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants announced after Saturday's game that they will push ace Johnny Cueto back a day to start Monday at home against Colorado. In his place, lefty Tyler Anderson (2-3, 5.06), who was ejected after two innings in his start Thursday against Seattle, will get to deal with the new-look A's. Anderson has never pitched against the A's. He is scheduled to be pitted against Oakland left-hander Mike Minor (1-5, 5.40 ERA), who is 3-2 with a 3.27 ERA in eight games (seven starts) against the Giants in his career. Minor will encounter a team that's totaled just nine hits -- eight singles and a Brandon Crawford double -- in the first two games of the series.

Rating: 2 Units

In the series finale, St. Louis right-hander Jack Flaherty (3-2, 5.52 ERA) is scheduled to face Pittsburgh right-hander Joe Musgrove (0-5, 5.74 ERA). Against Pittsburgh. Flaherty is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA with 47 strikeouts in eight career starts against the Pirates, and his five wins are his most against any opponent. It's a different story for Musgrove. Through six starts, with three weeks off while he was on the IL, Musgrove has performed below expectations. On Tuesday, he struck out eight in five innings but allowed four runs and six hits in a loss against Cincinnati -- but his teammates have contributed. Or, to be more exact, they have struggled to contribute. He has pitched 26 2/3 innings, and the Pirates have provided him with just a handful of runs while he has been in the game. Musgrove has struggled to beat the Cardinals -- he is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in eight career starts against them.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami starter, Alcantara, is 2-2 with a 3.45 ERA in five starts (28 2/3 innings), pitched six quality innings in his last outing Tuesday. Despite taking the loss against the Red Sox, Alcantara struck out five and walked two while allowing only one run on five hits. Alcantara has yet to face Washington this season, but is a career 0-5 with a 7.66 ERA in five starts allowing 21 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. In 23 career starts (147 2/3 innings) against the Marlins, Scherzer is 13-4 with a 3.23 ERA with a 5.96 strikeout-to-walk ratio -- his best against any division foe.

Rating: 2 Units

Lynn (6-2, 2.40 ERA) isn't just eating up innings for the Rangers, but he's turning in quality performances as well, giving up two runs or fewer in nine of 11 outings this season, helping him move to the forefront of AL Cy Young Award consideration. His lone poor outing came on Sept. 3, when he gave up six runs and eight hits in six innings of an 8-4 loss in Houston. Lynn will be matched against Angels left-hander Andrew Heaney (4-3, 4.02 ERA) for the third time this season. Lynn was the winning pitcher in the first two meetings against Heaney, improving his overall career mark against the Angels to 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA in eight starts. Heaney, meanwhile, was the losing pitcher, falling to 2-5 in his career against the Rangers with a 5.29 ERA in 12 starts

Rating: 2 Units

Rookie right-hander Cristian Javier (4-2, 3.22 ERA) will make his 11th appearance and ninth start for the Astros on Saturday. He struck out five batters while allowing one hit over two scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday in his second relief appearance. Javier's most recent start came Sept. 7, when he surrendered two runs over five innings with three hits and three walks with three strikeouts in a 6-0 loss in Oakland. Javier earned his first career victory against the Diamondbacks on Aug. 4, allowing one run on four hits and one walk with two strikeouts over six innings in an 8-2 win at Chase Field. Right-hander Luke Weaver (1-7, 6.70 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Diamondbacks (20-32) on Saturday. He is winless over his last five starts, posting an 0-4 record and 4.70 ERA during that stretch while allowing a .773 OPS with nine walks and 21 strikeouts over 23 innings.