Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins have lost four of their last five and send Zach Thompson to the mound whom they are 2-4 behind this season. However, he’s been much better than that, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of those starts. But I’m on the Padres because of Blake Snell. They’ve won three straight behind him. San Diego to win.

Rating: 2 Units

Getting a rather low number on Boston at home because oddsmakers aren't sure what to make of young pitcher Tanner Houck (0-3, 3.38) in just his eighth big-league appearance. In nine career innings against New York, the right-hander righty has allowed one unearned run on two hits while striking out seven. Yanks lefty Jordan Montgomery has a 5.32 road ERA and Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts kills him career (player prop hint). No Gary Sanchez tonight for the Bombers on top of Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela still on the COVID list.

Rating: 10 Unit10* Top Play Total

Hernandez and company will try their luck against right-hander Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA), who will get the nod on Thursday after being added to the taxi squad from Triple-A Durham. "I don't know if we have an exact message to give him, but we know we want him to start," Rays manager Kevin Cash said of the 21-year-old Patino. "He's done good things in Triple-A. Young pitcher that we've got to find a way to give him a little bit of a lane, create a path for him to take off here for us. And hopefully, (Thursday) is the start of that." Patino last pitched for Tampa Bay on July 2, allowing seven runs on as many hits in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He then yielded five earned runs in his next two appearances with the Bulls.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta's Charlie Morton has a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP on the road this year. Look for Freddie Freeman (3 HR, 5 RBI in the last five games) and the Braves to get to lefty Matt Moore, who has not gone more than 4.1 innings in his last three starts.

Rating: 2 Units

Been cashing all week on Detroit in this series and see no reason why the Tigers won't complete the four-game sweep and win their sixth straight overall and eighth in a row at home. Texas has lost eight in a row, all by at least two runs, and is the only winless team since the break. And it starts one of the worst pitchers in the AL in Mike Foltynewicz (2-9, 5.91). He only gave up 10 runs over 1.2 innings last time out AND will be on short rest, meaning he probably won't be out there long. He may not be out there long simply as he's not good. It almost doesn't matter which pitcher Detroit is starting (Tyler Alexander). He won't be out there long, either, with a season high of 3.1 innings pitched.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers won in walk-off fashion on Tuesday night, 8-6, completing an incredible comeback against the Giants. The win propelled the Dodgers to an impressive 31-15 record at home. I expect momentum to continue on Wednesday as the Dodgers have won four straight starts with Julio Urias pitching. Grab L.A.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs scored six runs in the top of the ninth on Tuesday, which is one fewer than the output from their previous two games combined. This offense just cannot get it going, and I expect that continues on the road against Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright. The veteran has a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home compared to 5.35 and 1.29 on the road. He blanked the Cubs over eight innings at home in May, and I expect similar results on Wednesday. Back the Cardinals and make sure to list Wainwright on your ticket.

Rating: 2 Units

In 15 matchups this season the White Sox have won 12 while averaging 7.1 runs per game. That puts immense pressure on a struggling Twins bullpen on Wednesday. Grab the White Sox to win their 13th game this season over the Twins.

Rating: 2 Units

Really, neither starting pitcher -- Jordan Lyles or Matt Manning -- is very trustworthy, although Manning is a promising prospect and has pitched pretty well in three of his five big-league starts. This is simply fading the Rangers, who have lost seven straight all by multiple runs. Detroit has won five in a row overall and seven consecutive at home, its longest home win streak since a 10-game run from July 14-August 15, 2013. Texas has the worst road record in the AL at 13-35 and is equally awful against right-handed pitching.

Rating: 2 Units

It appears the wind will be blowing slightly in from right to left at Coors Field this afternoon. Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber (6-5, 3.48) has a 1.48 ERA at home. The Mariners will use an opener before turning to Chris Flexen, who has a 1.77 ERA over his past seven outings. The Under is 10-1 in Colorado's past 11 at home as the team's pitching staff has really improved.

Rating: 2 Units

I see no reason to wait until early Wednesday to make this wager after KC burned me Tuesday. Looks to be a fairly lopsided pitching matchup with Kansas City's Brad Keller (6-9, 5.97) opposed by Milwaukee lefty Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Keller has been a bit better away yet still allowing batters to hit .313 off him on the road. Lauer has allowed just two runs and 11 hits over 18.1 innings in his past three. He loves day games with a 2-0 record and 1.86 ERA. The Royals are not great vs. lefties, Tuesday's upset against mediocre Brett Anderson aside.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m not a huge fan of Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel’s stuff, but he’s learned to manage a game better than he did in his younger years, and he’s also led his team to victory in 11 of his 17 starts. The White Sox's offense should be able to attack Minnesota RHP Bailey Ober and get an early lead. Chicago has won three of its last four games while the Twins have lost four of their last five. The White Sox are headed to the playoffs and Minnesota has no hope for the postseason. Take Chicago to win.

Rating: 2 Units

We backed the Padres behind Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.09) over the Braves and lefty Kyle Muller (1-2, 3.45) on Monday because the Friars generally destroy lefties. That game was rained out, and by all appearances it will be the same two starters tonight so nothing has changed in my mind. Atlanta is 1-3 since losing Ronald Acuna Jr.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies are just 9-9 behind RHP Aaron Nola. But we have New York RHP Domingo German’s rating sliding downward after a strong start to 2021, as the Yankees have lost four of his last five starts. New York still has COVID-19 issues, which have star performers like Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela sidelined. The Phillies are battling with wins in five of their last six games. Take Philadelphia to win.

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month

With Joe Ross still battling right elbow inflammation, Washington right-hander Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33 ERA) will start. He last pitched in Friday's 24-8 loss to the Padres, allowing three runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. His last start came on July 9 against the Giants, when he allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings.  Espino is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings with the Marlins, including a two-inning appearance on this season on June 25, when he allowed two runs, one earned, and three hits. All-Star left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31) faces the Nationals for the second time this season -- and his career. On May 2, he took the loss, giving up three runs on four hits over five innings. In his last start, the rookie gave up three runs -- two earned -- in four innings of a loss to the Braves. He struck out a season-low four batters and walked two.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams were off Monday; this was to be a night game but was pushed to the afternoon because there's apparently some other sporting event going on in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Lefty Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.33) gets the call for the Brewers, swapping in for Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Anderson isn’t as good overall but does have a 2.86 ERA in four home starts. The Royals have lost five straight on the road vs. southpaws and also lose the DH here. Kansas City's Mike Minor (6-8, 5.67) has allowed a whopping 24 runs over his past four outings. Milwaukee is 8-3 in its past 11 vs. a lefty.

Rating: 2 Units

The Halos are 4-9 in their past 13 on the road after dropping Game 1 of this series on Monday and face good-looking young A's righty James Kaprielian (4-3, 2.90), who has a 1.38 ERA in four home starts and also is better during the day overall (2.41) than at night (3.49). It's lefty Jose Suarez (4-2, 2.29) for L.A. He has nice numbers but Oakland is 22-13 vs. southpaws and Suarez is a five-inning pitcher max. I probably would have considered the Under here if the wind wasn't blowing out a bit in Oakland.

Rating: 2 Units

This line represents one of the two highest to which the Dodgers have played at home all season. Despite facing a strong starter in San Francisco RHP Kevin Gausman, Los Angeles still has a greater advantage in this game. The Dodgers are coming off a frustrating 6-5 extra-inning loss at Colorado. In a back-and-forth contest, the Rockies scored first before Los Angeles took the lead on three separate occasions. Since May 6, 2019, the Dodgers are 7-0 at home after a game in which their opponent scored first and Los Angeles moved ahead before going on to lose.

Rating: 2 Units

Caleb Smith’s last start lasted 1 inning, in which he was pounded mercilessly by the Dodgers for a million hits and a million runs in what became 22-1 loss for the D-Backs. But if Matt Harvey can start a shutout for Baltimore (son of a ___!!!), then Caleb Smith has the potential for something similar. Off that one start, they’re sending him back out to the mound, not to the minors, and It’s not the Dodgers coming to town, it’s the Pirates, who average the fewest runs per game in MLB (3.63 overall, and only 3.13 on the road.) It’s not Walker Buehler starting for the opponent (his team wins practically every time he starts), it’s Chase De Jong, who has a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

Rating; 2 Units

This total already has dropped to 8 at some books so we'll jump now -- doesn't look like the winds will be a factor. It's ace Kyle Gibson (6-1, 2.29) on the bump for Texas. His ERA in night games is 1.76. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize is on the bump for the Tigers (3-3, 3.59). He's on an innings limit so may not go more than five, but it should be a strong five. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Tigers' last 12 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 3 UnitMLB Play of the Day

This would normally be Jacob deGrom's spot in the rotation for the Mets, but the Cy Young heavy favorite is on the injured list (as is star shortstop Francisco Lindor). Thus, it's fade time with Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 4.97). In his lone road start, he was knocked around for five runs in D.C. The Mets aren't very good on the road as it is. Reds pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez has had back-to-back quality starts.

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to jump all over the Red Sox again after last night’s game. The Red Sox were up 1-0 while no-hitting the Yankees before it started raining. The Yankees were able to squeeze three runs in to win a 6-inning game 3-1. But it is the Yankees bullpen that is struggling without Jonathan Loaisiga and a sharp Aroldis Chapman right now. Jamison Taillon has been much better at home this season but the Red Sox have seen him once and scored three runs in 5.1 IP. Martin Perez is much better on the road with a 2.04 ERA and the Yankees have struggled against lefties this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners, which means they are going to win. The rookie right-hander has been a major driving force behind the surprising Mariners, who are only 3 1/2 games out the final wild-card spot. Seattle is 49-44 and has won eight straight behind Gilbert. He beat LHP Patrick Sandoval and the Angels 9-5 at Los Angeles on June 6. Take the Mariners to win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Athletics suffered a 3-2 loss on Saturday, ending their three-game winning streak, but RHP Chris Bassitt is on the mound, which means they're most likely going to win. They’ve won 14 of his 19 starts this season, and he’s allowed fewer than two runs in three of his last four starts. Bassitt and the Athletics will get the win.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The Royals will look to rebound from a loss to the Baltimore Orioles and take a series win this afternoon in Kansas City. The Orioles will send Matt Harvey (3-10, 7.70 ERA) to the mound, while fellow right-hander Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 4.98) will start for the Royals. Baltimore won Saturday with a big, early outburst. The Orioles scored two in the second and five in the third to build a 7-0 lead en route to an 8-4 victory. Harvey has lost nine straight decisions after starting the season 3-1. In his 12 starts since winning his third game, he's given up at least six earned runs four times. He's also had three more starts with five earned runs allowed.

Rating: 2 Units

Willy Peralta has been very good this season in limited action and the Tigers swept the doubleheader against the Twins yesterday with an improbably walk off in the second game. JA Happ has an 8.29 ERA on the road this season but he did pick up the win against the Tigers in his last start. The Tigers have been hitting lefties well lately and they have all the momentum. Take the Tigers at plus money at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Gerrit Cole is 9-4 with a 2.68 ERA, but the Yankees are 9-9 behind him which equates to -10.40 units on the season. This is one of his cheaper prices because the Yankees have some COVID-19 issues (Aaron Judge out) and other injuries leaving them with lots of Triple-A players. The Red Sox beat Cole 9-2 20 days ago. Boston is 7-0 against the Yankees this season. Red Sox to win.

Rating: 2 Units

The first-place Giants picked up right where they left off last night with a win to make it five straight, and they’ve got Anthony DeSclafani on the mound. They're 13-5 when he starts and have won seven of his last eight. His last start was one of his best with six shutout innings in a win against the Nationals. The price is cheap because Kwang Hyun Kim hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts, one of them at San Francisco 12 days ago. But I’m on the Giants to keep rolling.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's be honest. We bet/pick games if early. Can't help it. Seems a fair price here, plus I doubt Indians closer Emmanuel Clase is available after blowing the save Friday. Sometimes, it's the little things. Also, it's a day game: A's starter Frankie Montas has a 3.25 day ERA (it matters, shadows and such)

Rating: 2 Units

If oddsmakers are going to keep giving me great prices on the Rockies +1.5 at home, I'll keep taking them. Their home record of 31-17 (same home RL record, best in majors) would put the Rockies on a better than 100-win pace over 162 games at Coors. Colorado also is above .500 overall against lefties and faces Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias (not Walker Buehler as was originally listed; "Ferris" will go Saturday). Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela is always much better in Denver (3.75 ERA this year) than away (6.03 ERA). He has allowed three earned or fewer in five straight at Coors Field.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants come out of the break still in first place in the brutally tough NL West where three teams have won 53 games or more. San Francisco closed the break on a four-game win streak and start the second half with ace Kevin Gausman and his 1.73 ERA. The Giants have gone 12-6 behind him this season. The best part of this bet is that the price is 25 cents light. San Francisco to win.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore is truly wretched on the road, that shocking sweep in Houston a few weeks ago aside. And the Orioles are starting a truly wretched pitcher, at least so far in his young career, in Keegan Akin (0-4, 7.54). His ERA jumps to 8.42 on the road. It's lefty Danny Duffy (4-3, 2.53) for the Royals in what could be his final start with the team -- all but a lock he's traded by the July 30 deadline. After a stint on the IL and a few short outings, Duffy seems back in form. Only a few current O's have seen him.

Rating: 2 Units

Very unusual scheduling here as these clubs played four games against one another in Milwaukee to close the first half -- the Reds won the final three -- and now they play three immediately again in Cincinnati. This is a pitching rematch of last Thursday between the Brewers' Adrian Houser and Reds' Tyler Mahle. Both guys allowed three runs in a ND. Mahle doesn't have great home splits but is 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA at night. Houser has been a bit worse on the road this year and has a 6.75 ERA in two visits to Cincinnati. The Reds are 11-1 in their past 12 as home favorites.

Rating: 2 Units

We were on the Red Sox RL for Thursday's game, which of course was postponed due to COVID issues on the Yankees. As of now, they are planning to play today, but New York will be without two big bats in Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela, who will go on the COVID list. Boston pitcher Martin Perez has a 2.04 road ERA. New York's Domingo German has a 5.02 home ERA. Let's hit the RL again.

Rating: 2 Units

Left-hander Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86 ERA) will start today as the Astros attempt to avert a series sweep. He logged five innings in his most recent start on Tuesday against the Oakland Athletics, his lowest total since his season debut, and allowed season highs in hits (10) and runs (six) but did not factor into the decision in the Astros' 9-6 win. Valdez had worked at least six innings in each of his previous six starts, pitching to a 5-1 record and 2.18 ERA during that span.

Rating: 2 Units

Today's starting pitchers are Luis Castillo (3-10, 4.81 ERA) for the Reds and Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.10 ERA) for the Brewers. Castilo was 'talking Cy Young' for himself after  a15-8 season in 2019 but he was just 4-6 in 2020. Castillo then opened 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA through his first 11 starts of 2021 (team was 1-10). However, he owns a 2.00 ERA over his last seven starts, despite a modest 2-2 record (Reds are 4-3). Woodruff had a terrific season in 2019, despite being limited to 22 starts due to an injury. He finished 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, while the Brewers won 18 of his 22 starts. He's made 17 starts in 2021 and his ERA is an outstanding 2.10, his WHIP is 0.78 and his BAA is .158. His record deserves to be better than 7-4 but the Brewers are 12-5  in his 17 starts. Woodruff is the better pitcher and the Brewers are the better team.

Rating: 2 Units

Alex Cobb did his job. He pitched 5 1/3 innings for the Angels last night and allowed 0 earned runs, out-pitching Marco Gonzales (7 hits, 2 home runs in 5 2/3 innings) as expected. Naturally, Angels’ manager Joe Maddon frantically searched for somebody to lose the game for him and in the third, fourth and fifth relievers, he found three stiffs to give up a total of 5 runs in the bottom of the seventh and eighth innings for a 7-3 loss. That’s the way it’s been going here. Chris Flexen of Seattle escaped to Korea for a while to rinse the Mets’ attempt at developing him from his system, came back to the states to sign with the Mariners this season and is loving pitching in this ballpark, with a 1.99 ERA in nine starts here. Angels’ lefty Patrick Sandoval is a long reliever masquerading as a starter who walked 5 Orioles at home in the 5 innings of his July 4 start. He pitched a decent home outing vs. the Mariners on June 6 with 6 innings of 5-hit, 3-run ball but Maddon was at it again after Sandoval left, finding all the relievers necessary to allow 6 runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies are 7-34 on the road. But Arizona had lost something like 26 of 27 road games before winning in Dodger Stadium last night at odds of +$2.55. Ya’ gotta do what ya’ gotta do and German Marquez has been getting done what he’s had to get done. The Rockies have won his last four starts and he’s pitched 6, 8, 9 and 6 innings in them, allowing a total of only 9 hits in these 29 innings. The Padres’ Joe Musgrove has allowed 11 hits and 10 runs in his last two starts, with 7-4 K-BB in those 11 innings. Marquez had 11-1 K-BB in 6 innings six days ago.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams played yesterday, but the Yankees had to travel from Seattle. Houston barely used its bullpen in a 2-1 home loss to Oakland, ending a six-game skid. This price feels fairly low with the Astros at home and facing fill-in Yanks starter Nestor Cortes, who surely won't go more than 3-4 innings. The lefty has a stellar 1.29 ERA in 21 innings, but this has to be a fluke if you look at his career numbers. Houston's Jake Odorizzi (3-3, 3.70) got a late start to the season due to injury but has been excellent of late, allowing just one earned run in his past four starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

Taijuan Walker has been one of the best pitchers in the NL and should be an All Star. He is 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA at home. He has only allowed more than two earned runs in three of his starts this season and hasn’t allowed more than four. The Pirates just won two of three games against the Braves giving us value tonight, but they have also lost seven of 10 games. The Mets are 26-12 at home while the Pirates are 13-29 on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The starting pitchers for Friday's series opener are Vince Velasquez (3-3, 4.50 ERA) of Philadelphia and Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA) of Boston. This marks Velasquez's seventh season, the last six with the Phillies. He's made 148 career appearances (119 starts), going 31-38 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. That pretty much mirrors what he's done in 2021, as he's made 17 appearances (13 starts) in going 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. This marks his NINTH consecutive start but he's coming of one of his worst starts of the season. He surrendered five ERs, his second most in any start this season, while allowing a season-high nine hits, with three walks and four strikeouts over six innings of an 11-1 loss at San Diego last Sunday.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves will start 37-year-old veteran right-hander Charlie Morton (7-3, 3.91 ERA). The Marlins will start 27-year-old rookie right-hander Zach Thompson (2-2, 2.25 ERA). Thompson, who made his MLB debut on June 7, has just five major-league starts under his proverbial belt, including two against the Braves. On June 12, he beat the Braves 4-2, striking out six batters in five scoreless innings. Then, this past Sunday, Thompson turned in a quality start with three runs allowed in six innings, leaving the game with a lead. The Braves, however, rallied against Miami's bullpen, winning 8-7. Morton has made 16 career starts against the Marlins, sporting a 7-5 record with a 4.42 ERA. This year, however, Morton is 0-1 with a 7.63 ERA in three starts against Miami.

Rating: 2 Units

Tarik Skubal (5-7, 4.35 ERA), who is 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA in his past seven starts for Detroit, will oppose fellow left-hander J.A. Happ (4-4, 6.09) in the opener of the final series before the All-Star break. Considering the way the Tigers are playing lately, they probably would prefer to keep going instead of taking the four-day break for All-Star Game festivities in Denver. The Tigers have won four of their past five series while earning a split against American League West-leading Houston in the other. Detroit is 6-2 in its past eight games after Wednesday's 5-3 win over Gibson and the Rangers. Minnesota has lost seven of its past nine games following a 6-1 setback to the first-place Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.

Rating: 2 Units

Colorado will send Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.52 ERA) against the Diamondbacks' Jake Faria (0-0, 5.25) in a matchup of right-handers. Faria signed with Arizona on June 16 and made his first appearance with the Diamondbacks three days later. He hadn't started a game since he was with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 but has stared twice in his five appearances since joining the Diamondbacks. He has faced the Rockies twice in his career and is 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA in just one inning against them. Gonzalez has been a different pitcher at home than on the road. He is 0-5 with a 6.81 ERA on the road compared to 2-0 with a 4.31 ERA at Coors Field. His struggles away from home mirror what the team has dealt with this year.

Rating: 2 Units

This year, Alcantara has been better with backup catcher Sandy Leon (1.61 ERA in five games) than with starter Jorge Alfaro (2.67 ERA in 10 games). In addition, it bodes well for Alcantara that the Thursday contest is a matinee since he has been better in seven games during the day (3-2, 1.51 ERA) than in 11 games at night (2-5, 4.02 ERA). Then again, Urias also has a better ERA during the day (2.91) than at night (3.57). The Marlins, who beat the Dodgers 9-6 on Wednesday on Jesus Aguilar's three-run, ninth-inning homer, are 4-1 since losing to the Atlanta Braves 1-0 on Friday. Marlins starter Pablo Lopez was ejected just one pitch into that game after hitting Ronald Acuna Jr. with a pitch. After that pitch, Miami's relievers had to eat up the innings missed by Lopez, and that issue had a ripple effect, causing the Marlins bullpen to become overworked. Despite that fact, Miami's bullpen has been brilliant since that point, posting a stellar 2.61 ERA in 31 innings. The Marlins are now 4-2 against the Dodgers this year, with one game left in the season series.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals are 0-9 as favorites in the first game of a series with no rest after a loss as home underdogs in which they never led. The Reds are 7-0 in the first game of a road series with no rest after a come-from-behind win as home favorites and it is before the All-Star break.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers are 0-7 as favorites after a road game in which their opponent scored first. The Tigers are 4-0 in the first game of a series with no rest as 140-plus underdogs following a home game when playing a team that has a worse record. Detroit scored at least seven runs in each of the four wins.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs have lost nine straight, but this is the spot where they end their skid. Five of those nine losses came by one run, including the past three. Tonight they're facing lefty Matt Moore and they're much better versus southpaws. The Phils are facing right-hander Zach Davies, and they're much worse versus righties. The Cubs are 26-13 at home while the Phils are 15-26 on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins are 0-14 as 140-plus home underdogs after a game as underdogs in which they scored six or more runs. The Dodgers are 10-0 as favorites following a game as favorites in which they had more strikeouts than hits, and 9-0 as road favorites with RHP Walker Buehler when they won as home favorites in his previous start.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland is 30-18, when off a win. The opposite figures to be true for Boston. Pivetta goes for the visitors. He's got a 4.43 ERA overall and a 5.06 ERA his past three starts. Last time out, he gave up six runs, on nine hits, against the Royals. He was taken deep three times, in just 4 1/3 innings. On the other hand, Kaprielian is off b2b quality starts. On the season, he's got a dominant 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP, when starting at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Houston will turn to right-hander Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.65 ERA) today in a bid to complete the series sweep. Greinke, 37, followed up four wins in a five-start stretch by settling for a no-decision against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The former AL Cy Young Award recipient allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings before exiting after 96 pitches. Greinke owns a 10-9 record with a 3.75 ERA in 29 career appearances against Cleveland. Cesar Hernandez (5-for-13) has fared well versus the hurler, however Franmil Reyes is singing a vastly different tune by going 1-for-7 with three strikeouts. Cleveland right-hander Cal Quantrill (0-2, 4.11) will provide the opposition today. Quantrill, 26, recorded his fifth straight no-decision on Wednesday after permitting four runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers. Quantrill has yet to secure a decision in two career relief appearances versus Houston. He has yielded one run on three hits in 2 1/3 innings against the Astros.

Rating: 2 Units

Padres' hopes for a break-even trip rest with Snell, who is 0-3 in eight road starts this season with a 10.36 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .328 against Snell on the road this season, where he has a 2.233 WHIP. At home, Snell is 3-0 with a 1.43 ERA in seven starts. On the road, he has given up 33 runs on 40 hits and 24 walks with 35 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings over eight starts. Velasquez has been very impressive against the Padres. In four previous appearances (three starts) against the Padres, Velasquez is 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA, a 0.574 WHIP and a .132 opponents' batting average. In 22 2/3 innings, Velasquez has given up three runs to the Padres on 10 hits and three walks with 30 strikeouts. That is a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk average compared to a 2.15-to-1 mark this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners' late inning magic reappeared again last night as they beat Texas 5-4 in 10 innings. The win improved Seattle to 19-7 in one-run games and 9-1 in extra innings. Both of those win totals are highest in the majors. Last night's win was also the fifth straight over the Rangers, going back to a Memorial Day Weekend sweep that took place here in Seattle. Texas is now 0-13 its last 13 games in Seattle. No reason to think anything will be different here as Seattle seems to be on a roll right now. They've won nine times in the last 12 games and have also already beaten Jordan Lyles (the starter today for Texas) once this year. Marco Gonzales returns from the paternity list to pitch for the Mariners. He had a solid June and also pitches better at home than on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox have now won five in a row, while extending their lead in the AL Central to six games. They are now 9-2 vs. Detroit in head to head play (+$420), while bringing an 18-7 record vs. left-handers into today's contest. The Tigers have been profitable in 2021, but they average just 4.0 runs per game on offense. Dallas Keuchel has looked sharp in recent outings (2.80 ERA last two, +$465 overall) so we'll lay the short price on the road favorite this afternoon.

Rating: 2 Units

Forget Tyler Mahle! In a quest to target against a wider range of apparently vulnerable starters as other reliable play-ons and play-against have had their value reach questionable statuses, we’re in the early stages of a crusade against this guy. He couldn’t outpitch J.A. Over-the-Hill Happ for us two starts ago, fueling a BEST BET winner against Mahle next time out when he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs (2 homers) in 6 innings vs. Atlanta. He threw 105 pitches in those six innings, and needed 93 to complete 4 innings in his Happ-less loss. In the event Mahle does well, there is always the Reds’ bullpen to help the other side’s cause. The Cubs definitely bring the better relief crew to the table here, with Reds’ manager David Bell having his choice of fellows who’ve combined for the National League’s second highest bullpen ERA, 5.36. The fact that five of them gave up 0 runs on 1 hit in 4 innings after Sonny Gray left last night makes it seem like early fireworks are due from it tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Switching ballparks from Fenway to Oakland’s spacious layout would certainly seem to present obstacles to run-scoring that didn’t exist during the Red Sox’ home series against Kansas City in which they hung 6, 7, 6 and 15 runs on the old scoreboard. But the words “certainly seem” are merely an abstract. What “seems to be” isn’t necessarily what is. In brief exposure to A’s starter Frankie Montas, Red Sox batters like Michael Chavis, Rafael Devers, Marwin Gonzalez, J.D. Martinez and Danny Santana are 2-for-3, 2-for-3, 2-for-4, 2-for-6 and 4-for-7. Sure, most of that was in one game at Fenway in 2019, eons ago but still, hot is hot and the Red Sox average 5.0 runs per game on the road. Surely, A’s manager Bob ‘Let Me Find a Guy Who’ll Get Rocked’ Melvin can choose somebody capable of giving up some runs in the 3-4 innings that Montas won’t finish. Meanwhile, Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an average of 4.3 runs per start in his last nine and that’s in a maximum of two-thirds of a game, a level he didn’t reach two-thirds of the time.

Rating: 2 Units

The young Marlins, who are 5-2 against Atlanta, did not have a starter named to the July 13 All-Star Game. Miami (34-45) split the first two games of its series in Philadelphia, but the scheduled Thursday game was postponed because of rain. The early rainout decision means the Marlins will be able to slide right-hander Pablo Lopez (4-4, 2.87 ERA) into the series opener against Atlanta lefty Drew Smyly (5-3, 4.79) today. Lopez earned a win in his latest outing, June 25 against the Washington Nationals, when he allowed two runs on six hits in six innings and tied his season high with nine strikeouts. Lopez has held opponents to one or fewer runs in seven of his 16 starts and two runs or fewer in 13 outings. He was 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in June.

Rating: 2 Units

Living in slumdog territory is a bad habit but it’s okay to visit occasionally into what appears to be favorable circumstances. Brubaker doesn’t have to try to clean up a corrupt Arkansas prison system like Robert Redford attempted in the 1980 movie of the same name. He just needs to pitch as steady as he has been lately during 5-3, 2-1, 3-2 and 5-3 losses to the Cardinals, Indians, Nationals and Dodgers in his last four starts. His home ERA is 2.67. He beat the Brewers 6-1 in Milwaukee on April 16 with 6 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball, 8-0 K-BB. Piece o’ cake for the kid, no?

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have beaten opposing aces at home in recent weeks, as well as other assorted types of pitchers. They’ve always been one of the most polarized home-road teams in sports but this season is really ridiculous with the performance/result disparities, scoring only 2.62 runs per game on the road while allowing 5.46, but averaging 5.80 runs per game at Coors Field while allowing 4.61. Adam Wainwright, just another guy at this point, one with a 6.31 road ERA so far in 2021. If Colorado can beat guys like Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff in this park, then there’s no reason they can’t beat Wainwright (unless they happen to score at least one fewer run than the Cardinals). When Wainwright gets 2 strikes on a batter he most often throws a curveball next, because with an average fastball velocity of only 87.9 mph, a fastball at that point is easier to time and connect on. But everybody knows curveballs don’t curve as much as a pitcher would like them to curve in Coors Field. He could very well be in a no-win position there.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves exploded for 20 runs in a blowout vs. the Mets last night, but they will face a much tougher opponent in Jacob deGrom, who has posted a microscopic 0.69 ERA in 12 starts so far. New York has been profitable against the Braves in head to head play (+$385), and they've racked up huge winnings against right-handers in 2011 (+$815). Atlanta has lost substantially vs. righties (-$1060) so we'll lay the price on the best starting pitcher in MLB.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The underdog Cubs were battling for us in the bottom of the eighth of a 4-4 game last night, when something clicked in manager David Ross’s brain that he should do his best to lose the game. First, he summoned something called Ryan Tepera from the bullpen to give up four runs while getting only two outs. Then, he called upon Trevor McGill to get the last out. He didn’t. McGill gave up 6 more runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, 2 home runs in that mix, failing to retire a batter. Tonight, Megill’s younger brother Tylor starts for the Mets. Remember
how Don Corleone scolded Sonny, “Never take sides against the family!”? Well, the heck with that. It’s not our family and that was a scripted movie. Vendetta!!!! Revenge!! We are dead-set against the Megill family here, hoping for whatever poison that was running through Trevor to keep going through Tylor with an “o” (come on, man), who makes his second Major League start. His first was against the Braves six days ago, when he went 4 1/3 innings allowing 3 hits and 2 runs in a 7-3 Mets win. He had the good fortune to be matched that night against Kyle Wright, whose career ERA and WHIP are 6.56 and 1.89. What was Wright even doing there? The score was 5-0 Mets after 2 innings but Megill still couldn’t last the 5 innings to get credit for the “W.” Tonight, it will hopefully be more of a “Welcome to the Big Leagues” after Megill’s exposure to the Atlanta batters six days ago plus Charlie Morton, no introduction needed, as the opposing starter.

Rating: 2 Units

Both the Mariners and Blue Jays are 13-11 in June. Toronto will start left-hander Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.35 ERA) against Seattle right-hander Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.87). Ray is 0-1, 3.71, in three career games against Seattle. Flexen will be facing Toronto for the first time.

Rating: 2 Units

Vince Velasquez (2-2, 4.74 ERA) will make his 12th start of the season for Philadelphia. In his career against the Marlins, he is 5-4 with a 4.54 ERA in 18 starts. He beat them 2-0 in Miami on May 25 when he threw six shutout innings. The Marlins arrive in Philadelphia coming off a four-game split with the visiting Washington Nationals. Miami had a day off Monday. The Marlins' Tuesday starter, rookie Trevor Rogers (7-4, 2.08 ERA), has been one of the top pitchers in the NL all season. For his career against the Phillies, Rogers is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA in three starts.

Rating: 2 Units

New York's Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.18 ERA), who is coming off his best start of the season, seeks to win consecutive starts for the first time since winning four straight starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates from Aug. 25-Sept. 12, 2018. aillon ended an eight-start winless streak Thursday when he allowed one run on five hits in 6 1/3 innings during an 8-1 win over the Kansas City Royals. Before that start, he was 0-2 with a 5.80 ERA since his other win on May 1 against the Detroit Tigers. aillon is facing the Angels for the first time and hopes to have better success against Ohtani than did Michael King, who allowed a homer on an 80 mph curveball. Los Angeles left-hander Andrew Heaney (4-5, 4.72) looks to avoid a third straight loss. After going 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA from May 25-June 8, Heaney has allowed eight runs on 15 hits spanning 11 innings against the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants, respectively. Heaney is 1-1 with a 3.47 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees. He last opposed the Yankees on Sept. 19, 2019, in New York when he allowed six runs on five hits in five innings and took the loss.

Rating: 2 Units

This looks so easy for the host Brewers, doesn’t it? The Cubs lost the ESPN Sunday Night game against the Dodgers last night, flailing at Clayton Kershaw for 8 innings in a game they probably should have forfeited when it was 6-0 Dodgers in the second. Instead, they got a late start on the way to Milwaukee, losing a few hours crossing time zones. But we’ve seen this before and it often has no effect on the outcome. The lousy Twins killed Cleveland something like 10-0 one night after a long road trip out West in the latest that comes to mind. When it comes down to it, it’s professionals trying their best in a game that’s at least 70% pitching, maybe more. Probably more. The Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks had people concerned that he might be over the hill earlier this season when he got lit up like a Christmas tree in four of his first seven starts. His ERA was 6.09 on May 9. But in eight starts since — all of them victories by these Chicago Cubs — Hendricks has lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.84 with eight straight quality starts, ‘quality start’ meaning at least 6 innings pitched, with a maximum of 3 runs allowed. In his last two starts, Hendricks hasn’t allowed a run and has a scoreless streak of 15 innings. During his lousy period, he nevertheless made two starts against the Brewers in a 16-day span, pitching 6 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball the first time then 6 innings of 6-hit, 2-run ball the next. You can’t knock the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta with his 2.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Those are wowee kazowee figures. But Hendricks has been at his craft with strings of successes much longer than Milwaukee’s 25-year old, who, if he makes it past the fourth inning tonight, will surpass his previously high number of MLB innings pitched (81) in his four seasons. The Cubs’ bullpen is good enough to have contributed three different relievers for three total innings of the team’s no-hitter at the Dodgers last Thursday night when they beat Walker Buehler, who hadn’t been dealt a losing decision in 23 consecutive regular-season starts. And, the Brewers have averaged the fewest hits per game in the National League (7.03), only 6.72 his per game at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston owns the AL's best record at 47-31 (.603), while Kansas City is just 33-43 (.434). The Red Sox come in on a high, while the Royals come in losers of 17 of 21. I'm not sure why the Royals are starting Duffy here (third appearance since Wednesday, after coming off a month-long stint on the IL), especially considering Duffy is 0-6 with a 7.26 ERA in eight career starts against Boston (team is 1-7). That record is by far his worst against any major league team he has faced more than three times. As for Richards, he is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 games (five starts / team is 4-1) versus Kansas City.

Rating: 3 Units MLB Play of the Day

Well, speak of the devil, it’s J.A. Happ’s turn to start for the Twins. Following yesterday’s rainout, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli has opted to go with the struggling southpaw instead of skipping him and allowing Kenta Maeda his usual turn, despite the fact that the fewest number of runs scored by the opponent in a Happ start in May and June has been 5, with him giving up the vast majority of them. The guy needed 108 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings vs. the Reds on Monday, when he walked 5 and gave up 2 home runs. Indians’ rookie Sudden Sam Hentges, like Kyle Muller above, gets his second MLB start after a very good first one that can’t be taken too seriously. But Hentges is in one of those situations where he is eligible to be carried by the baseball gods, as a native Minnesotan who grew up a Twins fan living and going to school 20 minutes from Target Field. In this stadium, 2014, he pitched a complete-game, high school State Championship victory. A kid gets only one chance in his life to make his first-ever start against the hometown team that didn’t draft him.

Rating: 3 Units

Tyler Mahle… forget him! This guy couldn’t outpitch J.A. Happ for us earlier this week, and Happ was his usual lousy self. Mahle has good numbers overall but he wasn’t going very deep into most of starts, his pitch counts for lower-than-desired innings are high, and his best outings in the last month have been against opponents with weak sticks: Colorado (not in Coors), Milwaukee, St. Louis (fewest runs scored the last month) and the Cubs (worst team batting average, sub-.200, the last month). Therefore, as Ralph Kramden and Mr. Monahan were very much aware, “Muller’s the man!…” The Braves’ righthander is just a rookie in his second MLB start and his 4 innings of 1-hit, 1-run ball at the Mets on June 21 is isn’t enough to be worthy of excessive praise, but… Mahle! Ugh! He put us in position to suffer the ultimate in ironic humiliation in the Reds’ loss at Minnesota when our precious, pet reliable whipping boy Matt Shoemaker got the win in relief after they decided what we already knew, that he wasn’t good enough to start. The Reds’ bullpen behind Mahle has MLB’s highest ERA, 5.64, and is ready, willing and able to undo any good that their starter might do.

Rating: 2 Units

Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal (4-7, 4.33 ERA), today's scheduled starter, labored through his last start and was removed one out before he was eligible for the win. Skubal gave up two runs on four hits and walked two in 4 2/3 innings while throwing 97 pitches against St. Louis on Tuesday. Astros right-hander Jake Odorizzi (2-3, 4.75), who will oppose Skubal, hasn't given up an earned run in his last two appearances. He tossed four scoreless innings in a relief stint against Texas on June 15, then held Baltimore hitless in a five-inning start while striking out nine on Monday. Odorizzi returned late last month after missing more than a month of action due to a right pronator muscle strain. Odorizzi has made 13 career starts against the Tigers, posting a 6-2 record and 3.58 ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington at Miami (Scherzer vs. Alcantara) Was goin’ this way and that way on Phillies at Mets, Wheeler/Stroman or this match-up for an Under. Landed on this one because in his first start under the “Let’s check this guy!” rules, Zack Wheeler of the Phillies had his worst start of the season earlier this week. Aha! We’ve got our eye on you, fella. Anyway, Max Scherzer survived three checks by Joe Girardi in that game when matched against Wheeler. Marlins who
have faced Scherzer are 25-for-132 against him (.189) with 45-6 K-BB. Alcantara has Scherzer-like numbers (2.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and needed to make only 86 pitches to go 8 innings against the Blue Jays on Tuesday, allowing 5 hits and 1 run. He has lost his last two starts 2-1 and 1-0 because the Marlins can’t hit. The Nationals don’t hit much better.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

Though the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies are at opposite ends of the ladder in the NL, they've been quite competitive against each other this season. Following a fourth straight matchup decided by one run, the Rockies and Brewers continue their weekend series Saturday in Milwaukee.  Sitting 10 games over .500 and in the mix for the lead in the NL Central, Milwaukee has won three straight and five of the last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago is 6-14 in their last 20 games as a road underdog and 9-24 in their last 33 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. While LA is 97-45 in their last 142 games vs. a right-handed starter, 27-13 in their last 40 during game 2 of a series, and 41-20 in their last 61 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. In addition, Chicago is 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles.

Rating; 2 Units

88% humidity with 17 mph wind blowing out to left-center field. Good night for the ball to carry farther than normal. Giants’ home games from their last two series at Candlestick, er, Pac Bell, er, whatever tit’s called, have ended in scores of 9-8, 13-7, 10-3, 13-6 and 11-2. A’s manager Bob Melvin did not use Burch Smith or Jesus Luzardo in relief of Chris Bassitt after Bassitt once again gave us the super pro-jock effort in victory, so he is eligible to summon them from the visiting bullpen to help pad the run total of tonight’s outing. Johnny Cueto has allowed 3 to 5 runs in four of his last five starts and if the Giants’ bullpen was in great shape, then those recent home scores wouldn’t have been as high as they were.

Rating: 2 Units

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (4-3, 3.46 ERA) gets the call for the Mariners, as he aims to continue a strong showing in June. Kikuchi has worked seven innings in each of his past two starts while scattering one run and seven hits with six walks and 12 strikeouts. He has struggled against the White Sox in his career, however, going 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in two starts -- a ledger of 11 runs allowed, nine earned, in 7 1/3 innings. Lefty Carlos Rodon (6-2, 1.83 ERA) is set to start for the White Sox. Rodon is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four career starts against the Mariners and has pitched to a 1.42 ERA in three starts in June.

Rating: 2 Units

Results with Robbie Ray starting are 6-7 for the Blue Jays, favored on the road tonight against one of MLB’s hottest new starters, Trevor Rogers of the Marlins. The Marlins ain’t hitting much, it’s true, but the DH-less Blue Jays eked only 2 runs across the plate in last night’s 2-1 win and have never faced Rogers, who, after 14 starts, has a 7-3 record, 1.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 95-26 K-BB in 81 2/3 innings. Blue Jays’ manager Charlie Montoyo returns from a one-game suspension with the added responsibility of deciding whether or not to pinch-hit for Ray, or leave him in. ‘Oh, no, what do I do? I actually have to manage.’ At least Don Mattingly, not headed for the managerial hall of fame, does this every day or night 162 times a year.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Michael King (0-3, 4.08 ERA), who is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA as starting pitcher, will make his fifth start for the Yankees. King most recently pitched Thursday and allowed three runs and five hits in 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Toronto Blue Jays. Kansas City will welcome Danny Duffy (4-3, 1.94) back from the injured list for his first start since May 12. Duffy will make his 200th career start after being sidelined with a left-forearm flexor strain. Duffy matches up well against a Yankee team that averages just 3.6 runs per game vs. left-handers.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Jose Urquidy (5-3, 3.65 ERA) will try to close out the sweep for Houston in his first outing against the Orioles in his career. Thomas Eshelman (0-0, 1.93) will start for Baltimore and will make his debut against Houston. The right-hander was called up from Triple-A Norfolk when Bruce Zimmermann (biceps tendinitis) went on the injured list. The Orioles have not been able to do much against Houston's pitching in this series. They did not get a hit until the eighth inning Monday and finished with just two in a 10-2 loss. Baltimore fared a bit better Tuesday, ending up with six hits, but the Orioles have a total of three runs and eight hits in the first two games of the series. The Orioles have lost four straight.

Rating: 2 Units

After 1-hitting the Mets for 101 pitches through 7 innings on June 4, Blake Snell couldn’t last more than 4 innings in his next two starts at the Mets and  Rockies, giving up 14 hits and 10 runs in a total of 7 1/3 innings. Maybe there’s a reason the Rays’ manager took him out early in the World Series. Although you usually want to go Under or Nowhere when two aces oppose, Snell is not pitching like an ace. The excellent first try vs. the Mets was an exception to his general 2021 rule in a season where his ERA and WHIP are 5.72 and 1.57 and the Padres, a 43-32 team, are 5-9 in his 14 starts. Meanwhile, Kershaw gave up 3 runs in 7 innings losing 6-1 to the Padres on 4/23. Three runs in a Kershaw start is a good number and he’s actually allowed 4 or 5 in four of his last nine starts. It’s getting near the All-Star break so he’s due for the injured list.

Rating: 2 Units

Including his victory this season, LAA starter, Heaney is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani (7-2, 3.01) will start for San Francisco, coming off victories in each of his past three starts. That includes a two-hit shutout against Washington on June 11. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, limiting opposing teams to two runs or fewer in 10 of his 14 starts. While Heaney relies heavily on his fastball, DeSclafani thrives when he commands his changeup, as was the case in his shutout of the Nationals.

Rating: 2 Units

Fortunately for the Mets, Stroman is the one player who has paired an ability to stay healthy with a routinely high performance level. Stroman took a hard-luck defeat Thursday, when he allowed two runs over seven innings in New York's 2-0 loss to the Chicago Cubs. It was the career-high eighth straight start in which Stroman has lasted at least six innings. He ranks ninth in the National League in ERA and is 14th in innings pitched (84 1/3). Consistency has eluded Morton this season, but the 37-year-old veteran flirted with history last Thursday, when he carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He earned the win after surrendering three hits over 7 2/3 innings in the Braves' 4-0 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. The scoreless effort was the first this season for Morton, who gave up fewer than three runs just four times in his previous 13 starts. He also recorded an out beyond the seventh inning for the first time since he tossed 7 2/3 innings for the Houston Astros against the New York Yankees on April 30, 2018. Stroman is 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four career starts against the Braves. Morton is 1-3 with a 3.52 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) against the Mets.

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Sox have won Eduardo Rodriguez’ last two starts by scores of 10-8 and 12-8. He allowed 12 hits and 10 runs in 8 2/3 total innings in the two games. For the season, his ERA is 6.12, his WHIP 1.47. Lifetime, he has good numbers against Tampa batters. But he hasn’t faced them since July 2019, when he shut them out on 2 hits over 7 innings. The guy was in a great groove back then, in a string of five straight starts in which he allowed 0, 2, 1, 1 and 2 runs. 2021 Eduardo just completed a five-game stretch of allowing 4, 6, 3, 6, 4, and 5 runs. He’s a different guy now, apparently. Just about anyone the Rays could possibly send out to the mound after opener Andrew Kittredge (1.34 ERA, 083 WHIP) will have better numbers than Rodriguez.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros have had one of baseball's best offenses this season, and they showed more of the same in this game with 10 runs and 13 hits. Every starter -- manager Dusty Baker emptied the bench in the late innings -- posted at least one hit, and the Astros went 5-for-14 with runners in scoring position despite stranding 10. Houston has won 12 of its past 14 games and has bashed the ball during the winning streak. They've scored 65 runs in their stretch of eight wins and have taken over first place in the American League West. Houston had not been alone at the top since May 20. The Astros (44-28) lead Oakland (44-30) by one game. On the injury front, Baker said he expects outfielder Kyle Tucker (illness) to be activated later in the week. Right-hander Zack Greinke (7-2, 3.74 ERA) will get the start for the Astros on Tuesday. He is 2-2 with a 5.32 ERA vs. Baltimore in his career. For the Orioles, Jorge Lopez (2-8, 5.95) will start Tuesday in the middle game of this three-game set. The right-hander has an 0-1 record and a 23.14 ERA in one career appearance against the Astros. Baltimore's recent struggles continued with Monday's loss. The Orioles have dropped 11 of their past 12 games due to problems on offense and pitching -- especially in the bullpen.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The White Sox just lost a four-game series at Houston. They are bullies, bottom-feeders who feast upon the weak. We’ve noted how they’ve been great as the favorite (37-17), but lousy as underdogs (2-12). Besides being swept in four games by the Astros, they also got swept in a road series at the Yankees recently — and the Yankees aren’t juggernauts this season. But in going from Houston to Pittsburgh, the White Sox are transitioning in opponent from the highest-scoring team in Major League Baseball, to the lowest-scoring team. That’s a fact, Jack. The Astros average 5.68 runs per game, the Pirates a mere 3.50. The White Sox have thrived when the opponent starts a left-handed pitcher; we’ve been through that before. At the Pirates’ home park, Forbes Fi… no, Three Riv… no whatever it’s called, lefty Tyler Anderson has a 3.79 ERA vs. 6.06 on the road. But in terms of Batting Average Against, opposing batters have a .269 BAA here, slightly lower .252 BAA on the road. Right-handed batters have a .526 Slugging Percentage against him, while lefties’ SP is only .239. Good night to be just about every guy in the White Sox lineup?  Meantime, Lucas Giolito is a stingy pitcher (3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 103-27 K-BB in 81 2/3 IP) pitching to a lineup that struggles to score runs and has the fewest home runs (51, 15 fewer than the next-lowest HR team, the Arizona SOBs who beat us last night).

Rating: 2 Units

This is about three weeks late and hopefully not $1.20 short as the kind of unnecessary roughness / piling on / late-to-the-party penalty that the Diamondbacks need to snap a 17-game losing streak. But come on, man. Why do they even bother suiting up? They’re 2-30 since May 16. Very often, they’ve been a $2 dog, meaning the other side has been a very heavy favorite, the type we try to avoid because if it doesn’t win, you need to win twice to make up for it. Nevertheless, Investing in Arizona during this stretch would have netted a loss of about -$2,600, while the other side made about +$2,600 (investing >$6,000). In 4 1/3 innings against the Brewers’ lefty Brett Anderson on June 3 in Milwaukee, the D-Backs got 8 hits but only 3 runs in a 7-4 loss. Having done
that well against him recently, they’ve got people thinking that they’re ready to bust out and win a game for a change. Maybe they will, but bad teams tend to fool lots of people into thinking they can win, before they find a new way to lose. Like they did at Milwaukee on June 5 when Kelly allowed 5 runs in 6 innings and the bullpen gave up 2 more.

Rating: 3 Units

Tyler Mahle is finally becoming a real guy in this, his fifth MLB season. The Reds have won 11 of his 14 starts, his ERA and WHIP are 3.39 and 1.09, his K-BB is 90-23 in 74 1/3 innings pitched. Not bad. Not bad at all, and he’s only 26 years old. The Reds swept a series in Milwaukee last week but then got swept in four games at San Diego over the weekend. Angry Reds, off the airplane! Instead of facing good pitcher after good pitcher like they did in San Diego, they get to step in against J.A. Happ, an experience that has been very pleasant for many other teams/hitters recently, and for us, too. Happ is approaching Matt Harvey/Matt Shoemaker status with a 6.12 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Opposing batters have 26 hits and 15 runs scored in his last three starts, spanning 14 innings. Yikes! The Twins signed Happ for one year, $8 million, thinking he was a key to them getting farther in the post-season. They’re 30-41. Hello? Seven of his last eight starts have been non-quality starts, meaning less than 6 innings pitched and more than 3 runs allowed. In those starts, he has allowed as many as 9, 6 and 5 runs. Hard to win in this league when your starter gives up that many runs. The Twins have needed to score 7, 6 and 8 runs to win in the last three games they’ve won when Happ started but Mahle has allowed 1, 4, 2, 0, 0 runs in his last five starts, all wins, and only 1 home run in those games. There aren’t many bullpens as shaky as Cincinnati’s,
but the Twins have one of them.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros have won seven straight games and now they head on the road to face the Orioles who have lost 10 of their last 11 games. Jake Odorizzi has been solid this season and he is coming off a scoreless outing against the Rangers. Keegan Akin allowed eight runs in 5.2 IP in his last start but he doesn’t really get deep into games. The Astros have taken over the White Sox with the highest wOBA against lefties in the league. 

Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month

Things can turn around in quickly in Major League Baseball. Take these two teams for example. The Padres came into this series having lost seven of eight while the Reds were on a six-game win streak. Fast forward to the present and it's the Padres looking to finish a four-game sweep on Sunday. They've averaged six runs per game in this series and should have a "good time" at the plate today facing the embattled Luis Castillo, who has a 3-11 team start record for the year. Castillo has been better of late, but he's been facing teams that he was familiar with. Opponents are still batting .275 against Castillo, who has a WHIP of 1.51.

Rating: 2 Units

Zach Eflin is an enigma wrapped in a puzzle wrapped in gray synthetic fabric with red trim, topped with a red cap with a “P” on it. He usually gets to the 6th inning and finishes it, pitching well enough to win, but also well enough to not win. He has a 3.99 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Matt Harvey, Matt Shoemaker and some other pitchers not named Matt who can’t get batters out would love to have those numbers. But the Phillies don’t win much when he starts. They’re only 5-8 in Eflin’s starts this season, 2-6 in May-June. When the Phillies embarked for this road trip, they had a horrible record vs. left-handed starters. But then they beat the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw — albeit only 2-0 and ace Zack Wheeler started. But yesterday they took Giants’ lefty Alex to the Wood shed. Maybe the worm is turning for them. Southpaw Sudden Sammy Long makes his first MLB start for the Giants after coming in for an opener in his first two appearances after being called up.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston will send right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 3.76 ERA) to the mound. Kansas City will counter with left-hander Mike Minor (5-4, 4.63).  Hoping to keep the Royals in a funk will be Eovaldi. He is coming off a tremendous outing against the Blue Jays, when he allowed no runs on three hits in 6 2/3 innings. Eovaldi has given up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. In 10 career games - six starts - against the Red Sox, Minor is 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

The Athletics have relied heavily on their top relievers and could use a lengthy outing today from starter Sean Manaea (6-2, 2.99). The 29-year-old has allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts and is 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA over that span. Manaea surrendered one run on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings in last Monday's 8-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Rougned Odor is 4-for-20 with seven strikeouts against Manaea, who is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in four career starts against New York. The left-hander has not allowed an earned run in two career outings covering 12 innings at Yankee Stadium.

Rating: 2 Units

The gift that keeps giving, Matt Harvey, gets the start again for Baltimore. Hard to believe but true, worthy of a “That’s Incredible” segment except that show went off the air in 1984. The Orioles keep him in the rotation — according to all reports — despite the 7.76 ERA and 1.72 WHIP, allowing him to continue his Exit Tour of the Major Leagues and that’s just fine with us, despite the big odds to lay. Gotta dance with the guy who brung us, ya’ know? Five days ago, Harvey did us yet another solid by allowing 6 runs on 6 hits in 3 1/3 innings at Cleveland. This was after he allowed 7 runs on 8 hits in 3 innings vs. the Mets six days before that, another favor to his loyal “fans” at Sports Reporter. Harvey is not married, has no Father’s Day kids (that anyone knows of) to impress or pitch for to get some extra motivation or support from the baseball gods, and the guy he opposes has a 3.43 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. A start by Hyun-Jin Ryu typically lasts twice as long as the recent Harvey outing.

Rating: 2 Units

Off back-to-back BEST BET wins with the Astros, we go with the White Sox tonight. But what would Casey Stengel do? With a road underdog that has had overwhelming success in games started by opposing lefthanded starters, facing an Astros lineup that has a higher batting average against lefties than righties, he’d play the percentages and expect his innings-eating righthander, Lance Lynn, to out-pitch the other side’s lefty. Lynn is an angry, ornery SOB coming off a loss to Tampa Bay in which he allowed 3 runs in 6 innings. He still has an ERA and WHIP of 1.51 and 0.93, stellar stuff. We don’t expect Houston lefty Framber Valdez to gush oil like the Exxon Valdez, not after three straight outings of at least 7 innings, allowing a total of only 4 runs in 21 1/3 IP of three straight Astros wins. He’s in fine form with a four-start 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP after getting a late entry to the 2021 season due to early injury. But we need only 1 more run than the other side, like last night, when our side was today’s other side.

Rating: 2 Units

Brad Keller’s recent form doesn’t inspire much confidence...unless you’re looking for leverage in an Over! The Royals needed to score 14 runs for him to get his last win (actually, they needed only 6 but got 14). He has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his last three starts, the most recent a 10-3 loss to the light-hitting Tigers in this ballpark. Opposing batters barely touched Keller in this stadium last season, when his home ERA was 0.27. But short samples are what they are — short samples. After seven home starts this season, Keller’s home ERA is 7.80 and opposing hitters have a .330 batting average against him in those games. Meanwhile, since beating the Astros 5-1 and giving up 0 runs in 7 2/3 innings, Martin Perez has failed to get past the second inning in two straight starts, giving up 11 runs on 12 hits and 4 walks (4 home runs) in a total of only 3 1/3 innings. Yikes!

Rating: 2 Units

10* Total of the Month

Cleveland right-hander Cal Quantrill (0-2, 3.11 ERA) is expected to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Wil Crowe (0-4, 6.75 ERA). Quantrill is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career appearances, two of them starts, against Pittsburgh. Consider that the over is 20-6-1 in Indians last 27 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs came up flat in last night's opener, but they are still hard to beat here at Wrigley (24-10, +$1305) and they are available at a cheap price today. Pablo Lopez has been sub-par in his last couple of appearances for the Marlins (4.91 ERA) and Miami has been a losing proposition in road games (-$535). The Cubs are in a competitive race, while the Marlins should continue to fade.