Rating: 2 Units

Boston will be at a decent disadvantage here having to travel late Sunday night after facing the Yankees (letdown game possibility as well). And, who knows, someone could get hurt Sunday, too. Trevor Story was out of the lineup with an illness so perhaps he doesn't play Monday, either. Monday's Sox starter Michael Wacha is nothing special; he had a 5.05 ERA last year with the Rays. Detroit was 2-1 at home vs. Boston in 2021 and is 5-2 in its past seven at home overall vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Orioles aren't going 0-81 at home. Their starting pitcher, Bruce Zimmermann, had a decent 3.89 ERA at Camden Yards in 2021. The Orioles probably will draw flies most of the year but will have a big crowd today. Sometimes it's the little things. I also don't think the Milwaukee lineup is all that great. The Brewers have faced one lefty starter this year and didn't score off the Cubs' Justin Steele. Dating to last regular season, Milwaukee is 1-8 in its past nine on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

Astros sat Alex Bregman last night and Yuli Gurriel was placed on the paternity list, and they still only lost 2-0. All the Angels top bullpen arms pitched while all the Astros top bullpen arms were able to rest as well. Bregman should be back in the lineup today, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Angels rest one of their top guys as well. Astros are 15-7 against the Angels since the start of last season and they were the fourth best team in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Jose Suarez actually faced the Astros twice last season and pitched well both times, however I think if the Astros keep it close they will win it in the bullpens.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs are giving a lot of their regulars the day off, including Wilson Contreras, Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom. Marcus Stroman is making his debut, and I think he will be very good for the Cubs this season, however the Brewers should get a breath of fresh air avoiding a lefty today. The Brewers were the second best team in the league on the road last season, and they were 8-2 at Wrigley Field. Take the value on the Brewers on the road to avoid the sweep.

Rating: 2 Units

 I think the White Sox are a little overvalued on the road here, they were an under .500 team on the road last season at just 40-41. The Tigers were 42-39 at home last season. Michael Kopech has elite stuff but he has yet to be stretched out as a Major League starter and he has command issues. Tarik Skubal pitched well in his first two starts against the lefty crushing White Sox last season, and he actually doesn’t have a ton of trouble with righties like we would expect a lefty to have. Tim Anderson is back in the lineup for the White Sox but Yasmani Grandal is out. The Tigers just swapped Victor Reyes for Akil Baddoo which is an improvement after watching his ABs yesterday. Take the value on the Tigers at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets won the first two games of this series handily and they did it mostly off the Nats bullpen. The Nats bullpen should continue to be featured here heavily as Joan Adon will be making just his second career start for the Nats. Chris Bassitt is coming off a career year and will be making his Mets debut. Since the trade deadline last season, the Mets have won 10 of the last 13 games between these teams. The Mets also used their top bullpen guys in Game 1 so they should all be available for this game. Francisco Lindor was hit in the face by a pitch yesterday and the Mets have been frustrated all series about the number of HBPs. I think they come out focused today looking to start 3-0.

Rating: 2 Units

Honestly, I don’t trust Nick Pivetta much and I don’t trust the Red Sox bullpen. However, Pivetta did pitch well in his most recent start against the Yankees last season and the Yankees bullpen isn’t is too much of a better place. Luis Severino is making just his fourth start since 2019 and he has pitched just 18 innings since then. He also seriously struggled in Spring Training walking a lot of batters while striking out fewer than normal. These teams are about as evenly matched as two teams get and either team could win any game when they get together. Take the value in the Red Sox.

Rating: 2 Units

I'm huge Carlos Rodon guy as a White Sox fan. If he's right, he's awesome. Was a Cy Young contender for a while last year. The problem is that he's often injured. He is healthy now with the Giants and I don't think the slap-hitting Marlins will touch him. Cheap price.

Rating: 2 Units

Mitch Keller is getting the start for the Pirates and he has looked much better this season, even touching 100mph at times. However, the Pirates don’t have a great bullpen behind him, and he shouldn’t go more than 5 innings. Miles MIkolas is coming off a shortened season because of injuries but he did pitch solid in his only two starts against the Pirates last season. The Cardinals were able to avoid their top bullpen arms with their beatdown of Pittsburgh in Game 1, and they had a day off anyway for their guys to rest. I like the Cards at home to win again, especially at this value.

Rating: 2 Units

I think Dylan Cease is going to win a Cy Young someday, his stuff is honestly that good. However, he is still young, and he shouldn’t go deep in the game in his first start of the season. The White Sox also used all their top pitchers yesterday trying to pick up the win, including a 33-pitch outing from Liam Hendriks and 1.2 IP from Kendall Graveman, so even if they do pitch they shouldn’t be as effective. The White Sox have a ton of depth in their bullpen but they were also under .500 on the road last season at 40-41. The Tigers were over ,500 at home at 42-39 and they get their top righty on the mound in Casey Mize. Tim Anderson is still out and Yoan Moncada is on the IL. Casey Mize faced the White Sox three times last season pitching two quality starts, and he should have success against a righty heavy lineup. Take the value in the Tigers at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Weirdly enough, the Blue Jays have actually lost 10 straight games on Opening Day. However, I think that streak ends here. Usually, I don’t play teams just because they’re at home, but this is a different home game. This will be the first actual Toronto Opening Day since 2019 and you know that city is fired up about their team. Blue Jays also swept the Rangers when they played in Toronto last season. Jose Berrios didn’t allow a hit in his first start last season and he pitched a quality start when he faced them last June. Berrios went on a ridiculous run pitching 7 straight quality starts to end the season as well. Rangers haven’t been much better on Opening Day, losing 6 of their last 8 games. They signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in the offseason, but they don’t have much depth other than that. Some might think getting away from Coors Field will pay immediate dividends, but Gray was actually worse on the road at 3-7 5.22 ERA last season. His career ERA is also slightly worse on the road. Take the Blue Jays at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Giants won 107 games last season including going 54-27 at home. Logan Webb is getting his first Opening Day start and he was 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA last season. He was also 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home. Webb faced the Marlins in April last season and pitched 7 innings without allowing a run. The Marlins were just 25-56 on the road last season. Sandy Alcantara was very good last season posting a 3.19 ERA, although he somehow went 9-15. He also faced the Giants twice in April last season not pitching particularly well in either game. The Giants had the best record in the league last season yet they are just -140 at home to open the season against a team that didn’t make the playoffs. Take the Giants to win on Opening Day.

Rating: 2 Units

Friday game. Colorado was an absolute ATM on the runline at home last year, so I'm going to keep playing the Rockies (+110 here) as such until they prove to me that 2022 will be different. It will be Kris Bryant's regular-season debut for the Rox. It's Walker Buehler on the mound for LA, and he's my Cy Young pick but had a 4.86 ERA in three Coors Field starts in 2021. I honestly don't care if Colorado wins the game, just lose by one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays went 18-1 against the Orioles last season. Rays were also 53-30 at home last season while the Os were 25-56 on the road. The Orioles actually hit lefties decently well last season. However, Shane McClanahan faced the Orioles 4 times last season, all in July or later. He pitched at least 5 innings allowing 3 runs or fewer in all 4 of those starts. The Rays tend to struggle against lefties, however they faced John Means 4 times last season and his best outing was a five inning, 1 ER performance that they still lost. I don’t think either pitcher will go very deep into the game, and the Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season. As long as this stays under -200, take the Rays on their Opening Day.

Rating: 2 Units

This Athletics lineup is bad with a capital B. I think the public has caught on to the Athletics being bad, but I don’t think they realize how bad they will be. Frankie Montas could pitch well but the As don’t really have any options after that besides Lou Trivino and AJ Puk. Aaron Nola has been very hit or miss the last couple seasons, but when he has had trouble, it has been with the home run. Well, there aren’t any home run hitters in this Athletics lineup anymore. Seth Brown, maybe, but that’s it. The Phillies added Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to an already potent lineup, and they added bullpen arms in Brad Hand and Corey Knebel as well. They were also 47-34 at home last season, take the Phillies at home as long as they’re under -200.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox are without All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson and third baseman Yoan Moncada today. Moncada isn't that big of a deal (out a few weeks injured) but Anderson (two-game suspension) is because he's the key to that offense. The Pale Hose were basically a .500 team last year without Anderson and 23 games over .500 when in there. Chicago does crush lefties and the Tigers are starting southpaw and new acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez, but, again, Anderson is a big part of that. The Tigers look pretty darn good on paper offensively, especially after landing Austin Meadows in trade earlier this week from Tampa Bay. Chicago pitcher Lucas Giolito was 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA last year against the Tigers and their lineup is way better in 2022.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'm not about to predict an Arizona win, but I'll be taking home teams at +1.5 on the runline often this season and we pay only -115 here. That strategy has worked absolute wonders in hockey, and batting last in MLB is even a bigger advantage than having the last line change in the NHL. San Diego's lineup simply isn't the same without Fernando Tatis -- and SD struggled against lefties in 2021 even with Tatis in there. Friars starting pitcher Yu Darvish was horrible on the road last year (2-7, 5.54 ERA). Snakes southpaw starter Madison Bumgarner isn't what he used to be but still more than capable of an excellent outing.

Rating: 2 Units

The Angels were just 17th in the league at hitting lefties last season although their lineup is looking much healthier. The Astros were also 13-6 against the Angels last season. Framber Valdez is coming off a long playoff run where he played a big role for the Astros. However, he didn’t debut last season until the end of May so the long season shouldn’t affect him. Valdez pitched 6 quality starts in his first 7 games last season and he faced the Angels twice. He allowed 4 ER in 5 IP in his first start against them, then dominated in his second start now allowing a run in 7 IP. Shohei Ohtani is coming off an MVP season, but it did take him a little while to get settled in last year. He faced the Astros twice and also had one very good start and one very bad start. He has actually never beaten the Astros, he is 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA against them in five starts. The Astros lost Carlos Correa, but they still went to the World Series last season and return everyone else. Take the Astros as underdogs.

Rating: 2 Units

Our first MLB pick of the season! Think I will be fading the Pirates about 100 times this season. They are going to be terrible and may trade their best player, Bryan Reynolds, by Opening Day. One of the NL Rookie of the Year favorites is 6-foot-7 Bucs shortstop Oneil Cruz, but the team is starting him in the minors for service time reasons. It will be the final Opening Day for Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright and catcher and future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina (and presumably for newly signed Albert Pujols as well). Wainwright had a 2.74 ERA at home last season and was 4-0 with a 0.30 ERA in four starts against the Pirates. JT Brubaker is scheduled on the mound for Pittsburgh. He was 5-13 with a 5.36 ERA last year.

Rating: 2 Units

Well, I have to bet the first game of the season, don't I? Although this is in some jeopardy weather-wise, like many across the majors on Opening Day (two already postponed). It's reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound for the Brewers, but the winds blowing out fierce might actually be in Chicago's favor. I'm still not overly impressed with that Milwaukee lineup and the Cubs' should be better with the likes of Nick Madrigal and my pick for NL Rookie of the Year, Seiya Suzuki. Clint Frazier could be a sneaky pick for NL Comeback Player of the Year. Cubbies starter Kyle Hendricks usually pitches better at Wrigley. Getting Chicago even money on the runline is worth it. This will be our full-time introduction to the universal DH.

Rating: 2 Units

: I picked both the Astros to win the series and the Astros in 7 games on Early Edge before the World Series, so you could consider this play a bit of a hedge, but I also think if the Braves are gonna win the World Series they need to do it in Game 6. Max Fried has struggled his past couple outings and I think he will struggle again against one of the best lefty hitting teams in the league. However, Snitker was able to save Matzek, Jackson and Smith to give them 2 days off before Game 6. Two days rest and playing in the AL Park means he will extend his relievers to try to get 4, 5 or even 6 outs each if he needs to. Luis Garcia is pitching on 3 days rest for just the second time in his career and the Astros top relievers didn’t get the luxury of Game 5 off. The Braves add the DH while the Astros don’t really get an offensive boost adding someone like Chas McCormick before Maldonado in the lineup. Take the Braves to win the World Series tonight

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves are now 7-0 at home in the World Series and they are just 1 game away from their first World Series since 1995. But they are starting Tucker Davidson today instead of pushing Max Fried up on short rest, so I think they are kinda punting on this game. The Astros lineup is still a big mystery as to when, or if they will break out, but I think today will be the best chance they have. If they take the lead early, they will avoid all Snitker’s big bullpen arms. Snitker also wouldn’t mind that scenario because then all his best guys have 2 days off and Max Fried is on normal rest. Valdez struggled in his first outing, but I think he will have more success the second time around like he did against the Red Sox. Take the Astros to force a Game 6.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have been putting runners on base and threatening the over the past couple games, but they just haven’t been able to get that big hit. Both bullpens have been really good, but this is the third game in a row so everyone’s gonna be pretty sore at this point. However, I think one of these lineups will be shut down but I am not sure which. Valdez struggled in his first outing, but I think he will be much better the second time around. I could see a lot of hits like yesterday but the score staying low because it’s an elimination game. I could see a 5-2, 6-2 finish but I think one of these offenses gets shut down.

Rating" 2 Units

Dylan Lee is starting for the Braves in what should be a majority bullpen game. It should also be mostly left handers with Minter, Matzek and Smith available for the Braves after Lee. Zack Greinke is starting for the Astros and he has really struggled lately. In his only postseason start, he only recorded 4 outs while allowing 2 ER. The Astros were one of the best teams in the league at hitting left-handed pitching during the regular season, and they should get a steady dose of them today. I don’t think Dusty will hesitate to bring in his relievers with Framber Valdez expected to start tomorrow, and Snitker also has said he will play to win today. However, the Braves have yet to lose at home this postseason and I think they will have the pitching advantage today so I will side with them at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Ian Anderson has yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start in 7 starts in his postseason career. He has a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 IP, as long as he can get out of the first inning, he should have success. Luis Garcia is coming off easily his best postseason outing, but that was also his only good postseason outing in 4 starts. The Braves head home for their first home World Series game since the 90s and it will be loud. The Braves top relievers will have had 2 days off after working hard in Game 1 and I think they have the starting pitching advantage with Ian Anderson’s deadly changeup. Luis Garcia is still just 24 years old, and he was hit hard in his only road postseason start against the White Sox. Yordan Alvarez should play in the OF instead of DH meaning he will add offense, but that means the Astros will also be giving up defense. I also think pitchers will be pulled earlier than normal in the NL Park, meaning we should get a lot of bullpen innings. I think the Braves have the bullpen advantage as well, so I am taking the Braves at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Max Fried had been on a roll until his last start in Game 5 to try to clinch the Braves trip to the World Series. He got a little too fast in his delivery and it led to a poor outing. I think he will be able to correct that mistake, but the Astros are one of the best teams in the league at hitting lefties. They are also very good at hitting the inside fastball, and that plays to the Astros because Fried throws a lot of fastballs. Jose Urquidy hasn’t been pitching well lately but he does have postseason and World Series experience from when he pitched against the Nationals in 2019. I don’t think either starter will have a ton of success, but I like the Astros at home against a lefty.

Rating: 2 Units

Tonight I think we will see the Astros' bats come back to life. This team has scored more than six runs per game in the playoffs and faces an important game tonight if it wants to avoid heading to Atlanta down 0-2. Last night's Game 1 saw both teams use a heavy dose of relief pitchers. This lack of top bullpen options plays well into the Over, and last night was only the second postseason game in which the Astros stayed Under the total. The Braves should plate a few runs as well, so we should get back on track here with the Over.

Rating: 2 Units

Charlie Morton faced the Astros two times in the ALCS last season including Game 7 and he didn’t allow a run in either start. Charlie Morton also started, and won, Game 7 of the World Series in 2017 when the Astros won. Framber Valdez absolutely shoved in his last outing against the Red Sox and his only bad postseason outing was against the Red Sox in Game 1 on the ALCS. I think this game is a toss-up, so I am going to lean with the underdogs in the Braves.

Rating: 2 Units

Here we go again: Oddsmakers hugely overpricing the Dodgers with Max Scherzer on the mound. I simply don't get this moneyline number on the road, so I'll take advantage and grab the Braves at -110 on the runline. I get L.A. being favored a bit, but not this much. Atlanta starter Ian Anderson has had a scoreless outing in four of his first six career postseason appearances overall. Three of those six starts have come against the Dodgers, who scored two runs in three innings against him in Game 2. L.A. is now down a key reliever in Joe Kelly.

Rating: 2 Units

Normally, I would be all over Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox here but I think Cora put him in a bad situation by having him pitch in Game 4. Not to mention, he hasn’t looked as dominant as he has been in previous playoff starts. But even if he pitches well, he should run out of juice earlier than usual because of his Game 4 appearance, and he still hasn’t gone more than 5.1 IP in these playoffs in the first place. Luis Garcia struggled in his first two playoff starts but that was mostly due to walks. I think he will model after Framber Valdez and attack the zone early to get the Red Sox hitters out. And if he struggles, the Astros have Jake Odorizzi rested and ready to pitch in long relief if need be. Eovaldi’s fastball plays into a lot of these Astros right-handed bats well, I will take the Astros at home to go to the World Series.

Rating: 2 Units

Max Fried will be facing the Dodgers bullpen in a crucial Game 5 with the Braves up 3-1 in the NLCS for the second straight year. Last season, they blew the 3-1 lead and the Dodgers ended up winning the World Series, so you know that is on the Braves minds. Usually, teams are fine with a 3-2 lead going home but you know the Braves want to end it now. Max Muncy has been out and now Justin Turner will be out after pulling his hamstring last night. Trevor Bauer is still out. This high-powered Dodgers team is falling apart while the Braves just keep improving. Lefties have been the Dodgers kryptonite and Max Fried has been dealing lately. He has pitched two quality starts this postseason including one in Game 1 against the Dodgers. The Braves have seen all the Dodgers bullpen arms multiple times now with this being their second bullpen game, so I think the Braves will end the series tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

This may drop to 7.5 soon as the Under is juiced a bit. The Dodgers will go with a bullpen day and I'd imagine that Dave Roberts uses pretty much every single pitcher other than Julio Urias (who started Game 4) and Tony Gonsolin (pitched past two games) to keep the season alive. It's ace lefty Max Fried for the Braves. He led MLB in ERA in the second half of the regular season and held the Dodgers to two runs over six in Game 1. Dating to the regular season, Fried hasn't allowed a run in his past three on the road. LA also will be without Justin Turner in the lineup. The winds are blowing out slightly but not enough to concern me here. Lance Barksdale is considered a moderate Under umpire.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves haven't announced their Game 4 starter yet, but it doesn't really matter as it will be a bullpen day -- probably largely for Los Angeles, too, after Julio Urias puts in 3-4 innings or so on short rest. I expect the Dodgers to win after ripping out Atlanta's heart in Game 3, but backing LA at -220 is ridiculous without a true starting pitching edge. So, Braves runline at -118.

Rating: 2 Units

Chris Sale and Framber Valdez will face off for the second time this series and I honestly don’t think either will pitch very well. Both these starters were out by the third inning in Game 1, but this time the Astros won’t have Christian Javier available to take up bulk innings. The Red Sox put up 14 runs after the first time they lost this postseason and 12 runs against the Astros after the second game they lost this postseason, so the Red Sox have responded well to losses. The park shift with Framber Valdez and Chris Sale now pitching in Fenway Park should help the Red Sox too. This series is now guaranteed to go back to Houston so this is more of a must win game for the Red Sox than the Astros, take the Red Sox at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Difficult to have any faith in Houston starter Zack Greinke as he wasn't good in his final three regular-season starts and not particularly good in his one inning in the ALDS vs. the White Sox. He's probably only available for 40 pitches and then followed by Cristian Javier. The Houston bullpen overall is in shambles because the team's starting pitchers have accounted for just 5.1 of the 26 innings pitched in this series. Boston's Nick Pivetta will be making his first career postseason start. He has appeared twice in relief so far in these playoffs, allowing three earned runs and striking out 11 batters in 8.2 innings. The way the Sox are killing the ball right now, simply can't go against them at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers had chances to win each of the first two games and they couldn’t do it, in part because of poor hitting with runners on and in part because of poor managing. They are now down 2-0 headed back to Los Angeles because of it. The Dodgers haven’t lost a home game since August and they have their ace Walker Buehler going. Buehler has a career 2.50 ERA in the postseason and hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a playoff start in his last 11 appearances. He pitched 11 innings allowing 1 ER against the Braves in the NLCS last season. Charlie Morton has been solid in his playoff starts and very good in his career in the playoffs, but he allowed 5 ER in 4.1 IP to the Dodgers in his only playoff start against them last season. The Dodgers will be managing this game like it is an elimination game for them while the Braves will be playing to just win at least 1 out of the 3 games, take the Dodgers to stay alive in this series at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Jose Urquidy will finally get to make his 2021 postseason debut and he has been nails in the playoffs in his career. He has a 2.81 ERA in 25.2 IP in the playoffs. He faced the Red Sox once this season and allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP. The Astros went down 9-0 after the second inning in Game 2 so they didn’t have much of a chance in that game. Urquidy should be able to give them solid innings and they should face the lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. He was hit hard by Houston both times they faced him this season allowing 6 ER in 4.1 IP in both games. This will be just Rodriguez 4th career postseason start and the Astros are one of the best lefty-hitting teams in the league. Take the Astros.

Rating: 2 Units

Ian Anderson has faced the Dodgers once this season and he allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP on just 1 hit and 3 walks. The Braves have seen Max Scherzer plenty from his time in the NL East, but he hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in either of his first 2 postseason starts, and he threw six scoreless on September 1 against them. In the NLCS last season, Anderson allowed 0 runs in 4 IP and 2 ER in 3 IP, so even if he does pitch well he won’t go very deep. The Dodgers outhit the Braves yesterday and had many more chances, they just couldn’t push that last run across. I expect them to push a few across early against Anderson today and chase him.

Rating: 2 Units

Max Fried will start for the Braves in Game 1 after Charlie Morton pitched on short rest on Tuesday. He has been on a dominant run and he already pitched two quality starts against the Dodgers earlier this season. The Dodgers struggled against lefties this season as most of their righties actually hit right-handed pitchers better and they should have Albert Pujols at first base and AJ Pollock in the outfield instead of Gavin Lux and Cody Bellinger. In the NLCS last season, Fried faced the Dodgers twice pitching a quality start in each outing. Max Scherzer is expected to start for the Dodgers. He pitched an inning against the Giants Thursday but that was his bullpen day. The adrenaline is a little bit different for a winner take all save though, so I would expect a little bit of an energy loss. Take the Braves at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Neither of these teams exactly lit up the scoreboard in their last series but that is also in part because both have very good pitching staffs. Neither team has multiple guys going well right now either, and both teams will have a day off to reset their bullpens so I like the under.

Rating: 2 Units

Nathan Eovaldi is just one of those guys that turns it on when the playoffs come around. He now has a career 1.93 ERA in 8 postseason appearances, and he pitched in Houston twice in 2018 in the ALCS and pitched two quality starts. Nick Pivetta has been dealing and he should be able to piggyback Eovaldi. Luis Garcia was hit hard by the White Sox in his 2nd career postseason start and he has yet to pitch more than 2.2 innings in his two starts. The Astros don’t really have anyone to bridge that gap to the back end of their bullpen now after losing pitching depth with Lance McCullers Jr. injury.

Rating: 2 Units

We have a battle of southpaws in Game 1 in Houston between Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Valdez was actually hit hard in the playoffs for the first time in his career against the White Sox, but the White Sox are one of the best lefty hitting teams in the league. Chris Sale has actually been very bad in his career in the playoffs, including his only start this postseason where he allowed 5 ER in the first inning before being removed. The Astros were ranked 4th in the league in wOBA against lefties this season but the Red Sox weren’t too far behind at 8th. I am guessing the Red Sox will go with Tanner Houck or Nick Pivetta out of the bullpen to piggyback Sale if they are up, but I think the Astros will take an early lead and hopefully keep either of those guys from coming in the game.

Rating: 2 Units

Logan Webb tossed a gem in Game 1 in his first career postseason start and I don’t see much changing the second time around. Julio Urias also pitched well in his start in Game 2, and he has been very good in playoff elimination games in his career. The Dodgers have a couple key players not hitting right now, mainly Justin Turner in the middle of their lineup, and the Giants have been a very good team at home all season. The Giants feel like a team of destiny while it seems like the Dodgers have been working their hardest to stay alive. The Giants barely edged the Dodgers in the season series and in the division race, I like the Giants to edge them out one more time.

Rating: 2 Units

Tony Gonsolin will be pitching for the Dodgers playoff lives against Anthony Desclafani after the Dodgers were shut out for the second time in three matchups in this series. Anthony Desclafani will be making his playoff debut and he did not pitch well against the Dodgers this season, although he has been pitching well lately. Tony Gonsolin will be making his fourth career playoff start and he hasn’t pitched very well at all in the playoffs, but he should be on a very short leash. Gonsolin has been better at home and last night was the first game the Dodgers lost at home since the beginning of September. Expect an offensive explosion from the Dodgers tonight, this series was destined to go 5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers bats have put up 2 runs total in this series with both runs coming in Game 1. However, today they face Huascar Ynoa who has been struggling in September. He pitched well in 1 career playoff start but he did walk 4 batters. The Brewers also touched up Ynoa for 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his only matchup against them. Eric Lauer allowed 3 ER in 3 IP to the Braves in his only matchup against them but that was a different Braves lineup in May and Lauer didn’t start that game. This will be Lauer’s first career playoff start but he allowed 1 run or less while pitching 5 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. Both these teams were better on the road during the regular season, take the value in the dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have been terrible with the bats, with neither team scoring more than 3 runs in a game yet and no total going over 3. I don’t see the bats waking up today, especially with the wind blowing in. Both teams will have just about all options available out of the bullpen in any sign of trouble also. Take the under.

Rating: 2 Units

The questions about Carlos Rodon haven’t been about his performance but about his durability. He has been pitching well when he has pitched, just 6 times since the end of July. However, he was experiencing a heavy velocity drop in his most recent outings. The Astros had the fourth highest wOBA against lefties this season, and they definitely won’t have a problem if Rodon loses velocity like he has been. Lance McCullers Jr. was dominant in his start in Game 1, and he has been very good in the playoffs throughout his career. The Astros bats are hot right now, and they have the experience. Take the Astros to finish this series in Chicago.

Rating: 2 Units

Sure, Max Scherzer is starting at home and the Dodgers just put up 9 runs, but do we really think they are -200 favorites in a playoff game? The Giants not only beat the Dodgers in their season series going 6-4 in Los Angeles, but they also had more regular season wins. The Giants have a very good bullpen, and they can piece together some outs while we saw Max Scherzer not at his best in the Wild Card game. This game should be much closer to 50-50, take the value on the Giants.

Rating: 2 Units

I was all over the Rays to start the playoffs so I can’t give up on them now. Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, and Nathan Eovaldi have been the best 3 pitchers this series but all 3 should be unavailable for the Red Sox for tonight’s game. Eduardo Rodriguez was hit hard in Game 1 by the Rays and the Rays have been absolutely lighting up left-handed pitching lately. The Rays won 100 games in the regular season and scored the most runs in the league, they won’t go down easy. I think the Red Sox will have a good chance in Game 5 once they get those three pitchers available, but I think the Rays win today with a bullpen game against what would probably be some combination of Rodriguez and Sale.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Brewers bats would have put up 18 scoreless innings if it weren’t for a late home run by Rowdy Tellez in Game 1. However, I think they finally put it together today. Freddy Peralta has only made two postseason appearances, but he pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Braves earlier this season, although that was before the trade deadline. Ian Anderson has made 4 postseason starts and he has pitched well in all four. I think this will end up coming down to the bullpens so I will take the Brewers because of that reason.

Rating: 2 Units

Dylan Cease is much better at home, so it makes sense why they wanted to give him the start here. However, this should have been Carlos Rodon’s spot and that would have given the White Sox a much better chance to win. This is obviously an elimination game for the White Sox too so I think they will pull Cease at any sign of trouble. Luis Garcia was worse on the road this season, just like the Astros were at 44-37 while the White Sox were 53-28 at home. Garcia faced the White Sox once this season allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. Cease was hit hard in his first start against the Astros this season but gave up 3 ER in 5.2 IP at home. Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks have yet to pitch in this series and the White Sox won’t have a chance if they don’t. I think the White Sox avoid the sweep at home today, but I think the Astros will end this series in Chicago. Take the White Sox to last 1 more game.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Dodgers were shut down by Logan Webb in Game 1 and while the offense is compromised without Max Muncy, there are far too many great hitters to for them to stay stifled. They led the NL in runs this season. Giants starter Kevin Gausman was very good this season, but a lot of that came early. He had a 4.42 ERA after the All-Star break. He's also been worse at home than on the road. Dodgers starter Julio Urias was better on the road and the Dodgers have won his last 11 starts overall. He had a 1.77 ERA in those outings. He also had a 2.08 ERA in three starts in Oracle Park this year, too.

Both these teams actually play better on the road. The Braves had the tying run on third base yesterday before grounding out to end the game. Brandon Woodruff has pitched very well this season, but he allowed 3 ER in 5.1 IP to the Braves earlier this season. He was also 0-3 with a 4.09 ERA in September. Max Fried hasn’t faced the Brewers this season but the Brewers struggle against lefties and Fried is absolutely dealing right now. He has pitched 12 straight quality starts and he has allowed 1 ER in his last 23 IP. The Brewers were tied for 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties and they weren’t doing much better in September ranking 22nd overall in wOBA against lefties. Take the value in the Braves.

Rating: 2 Units

Logan Webb is 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home, and he went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts vs. the Dodgers this season. LA posted a .127 on-base average against him. The Giants have won 10 of his last 11 starts. Walker Buehler is even more dominant, but he struggled in his last start at Oracle Park, giving up six runs on seven hits in three innings. The Giants went 54-27 at home and continue to be undervalued.

Rating: 2 Units

Shane Baz is making just his fourth career start although he did pitch well in his first three. Chris Sale will be making just his 8th career postseason appearance and 5th career postseason start so despite being the veteran he doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience. He also has a 5.76 ERA in the postseason. The Rays had the 3rd highest wOBA in the league against lefties since the start of September and they crushed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez early in Thursday’s game. Chris Sale made 3 starts on the road this season and went 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA. He also faced the Rays twice, pitching a quality start and getting blown up. Sale wasn’t getting deep into games either this season, and the Red Sox bullpen is very questionable while the Rays can just go to theirs whenever they need. The Rays are now 8-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 12 of the last 16 matchups straight up. Take the Rays.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves come into the playoffs red hot, winning 12 of their last 14 games to close out the regular season. They had teams like the Philadelphia and the New York Mets chasing them in the NL East, so it was like playoff baseball for them after they finally got over .500 for the first time on Aug. 6. Players acquired in trades to make up for the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) paid off. The Brewers found themselves being bored down the stretch after leading the NL Central for 137 straight days. No one truly threatened them, but they finished the regular season having lost 10 of their last 14 against teams such as St. Louis and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Can they simply flip the switch in the postseason? I'm on the Brewers in Game 1 because of the dominance of RHP Corbin Burnes, who is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award. While Milwaukee was sluggish in September, Burnes was still a dominant force. They won 12 straight games behind him before he worked only two innings in his last start, an 8-3 loss to the Dodgers.

Rating: 2 Units

Both these starting pitchers have been very good in the playoffs in their short playoff careers. Lucas Giolito has made just 1 postseason start, but he tossed a 1 run, 7 inning gem last year. Framber Valdez also made his postseason debut last year with no fans, and all he did was pitch at least 5 innings in all four starts without allowing more than 2 ER in any of them. The White Sox had the 5th best wOBA in the league against lefties this season but the Astros had the 4th best wOBA in the league against righties. Valdez faced the White Sox twice this season and allowed 2 ER in one game and 4 ER in the other while pitching 7 and 6.1 innings, respectively. Giolito faced the Astros once this season, and tossed a 1 run complete game, but it was at home. The White Sox are 40-42 now on the road this season including the postseason and they are 27-30 against teams over .500. Take the Astros at home.

Rating: 2 Units

 I was planning to stay off this game with the Rays opening at -180 but now the odds have swung enough to make a play. The Rays had been crushing left-handed pitching to end the season putting up the 3rd highest wOBA in September in the league against lefties. The Red Sox have been worse against lefties in the same time span, although they haven’t been terrible at 8th in the league. Eduardo Rodriguez has been pitching well lately to just about every team but the Rays, who he allowed 6 ER in 3.2 IP to in his last matchup. Shane McClanahan has faced Boston three times this season and allowed 1 or 0 runs in 2 of the 3 games pitching at least 5 innings in all 3 starts. The Rays are 7-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 11 of the past 15 matchups straight up. The Red Sox will be riding the momentum of their Wild Card win which is the only thing I am worried about, but with the line coming down so hard there is much less risk. Take the Rays.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16) of the Astros and Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69) of the White Sox are the scheduled starters in Game 1. McCullers pitched two of Houston's five earlier wins over the White Sox, allowing a total of just three runs and four hits in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts. The Astros won those games 8-2 at home and 7-1 on the road. The 28-year-old has made six career starts against Chicago, going 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. Lynn, meanwhile, was bombed for six runs and eight hits in four innings in his only previous start against the Astros this season. The visiting White Sox were beaten 7-3. The 34-year-old has gone 5-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 14 lifetime appearances against Houston, 13 as a starter.

Rating: 2 Units

The gritty Cardinals used a 17-game win streak in September to get here, but they're playing a Dodgers team that's won 15 straight at home. And the pitching matchup favors LA. Max Scherzer faced the Redbirds on Sept. 6 and allowed one unearned run over eight innings. For the season, Scherzer has a 0.00 ERA and a ridiculous 22 strikeouts in 14 innings vs. St. Louis. Since being acquired by LA, Scherzer has a 1.98 ERA in 68.1 innings. Adam Wainwright is an ageless wonder, but the Dodgers got to him for four runs over 8.1 innings in their only matchup this season. Back the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs 

Rating: 2 Units

New York RHP Gerrit Cole has seriously struggled lately, but if there is anyone that can lock it in for one start, it’s him. Cole hasn’t had great success against Boston this season, but he also hasn’t been terrible. However, Cole is a different beast in the playoffs, as he owns a 2.68 ERA and has allowed more than two runs just twice in eight starts over his last two postseasons. Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi recently was hit hard by the Yankees in Boston. His only playoff experience came in 2018, when he made two starts and pitched well. I think playing on the road will settle the Yankees instead of the pressure that would come at home game if they were to trail early. Take the Yankees and their pitching staff.

Rating: 2 Units

You may be noticing a trend here in that I'm backing all the teams with something to play for Sunday. Seattle needs a win and some help to earn a wild-card spot. The Angels are starting the awful Reid Detmers (1-3, 7.11). That's a give up.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants lost yesterday but they still win the division with a win today or a Dodgers loss and I don’t think they will squander that chance against the Padres bullpen. The Padres fired their manager yesterday and just wanna get home so if the Giants can take the lead early they should have success. Logan Webb has been the Giants best pitcher lately and he hasn’t lost a start in over 15 games. The Padres are going with a bullpen game starting with Reiss Knehr. The Giants are 22-7 in the past month, good for the best record in baseball. The Padres are 7-20 in the past month, good for the worst record in baseball. Take the Giants to clinch.

Rating: 2 Units

How much do the Rays hate the Yankees? We will find out today because Tampa Bay has squat to play for and New York everything. Honestly, I hope I get this pick wrong but I have to lean the motivated side. Yanks earn a wild-card spot with a victory.

Rating: 2 Units

Nats prized prospect Josiah Gray will be starting against Tanner Houck in what looks to be a bullpen game for the Red Sox. Josiah Gray has been very good his past couple starts and last night’s game was closer than it seemed. The Nats had the bases loaded early with no outs and couldn’t cash in and still lost by only 2 runs. The Red Sox bats have been struggling and they are once again without a DH. Take the Nats and lets hope for maximum chaos in the Wild Card.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants need 1 more win to cap off their season by winning the NL West and you know they don’t want it to go down to the last day. Kevin Gausman has been their best pitcher all season so it makes sense that it comes down to him to clinch. Joe Musgrove has been very good this season too, but the Padres have been the worst team in the league since September 1 and I don’t see that changing today. This is a relatively cheap price to get the Giants at home especially in a clinching scenario, take the Giants.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Yankees are starting with Jordan Montgomery but they will go with mostly a bullpen game. Shane Baz has been good for the Rays but he hasn’t faced the Yankees in a clinching scenario in the Bronx. The Yankees can clinch the playoffs with a win today and I think they’ll get it done. They have the best ERA in the AL and they are using their bullpen to their advantage today while last night it seemed like they were kind of setting their bullpen up for today. The Yankees have won 8 of 10 and while the Rays have been good in the Bronx all season, they are still worse on the road. Take the Yankees to clinch.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners have the longest postseason drought in sports, and now they have to win 3 games to break it. Honestly, I thought the pressure was gonna get to them last series, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does this series either. This is still a very young team, but they have also won 11 of their last 13 games while the Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games. Jose Suarez has been solid since being inserted into the starting rotation but he allowed 4 ER in 5 IP in his last start which was against the Mariners. Marco Gonzales is 4-0 with a 3.90 ERA in September and he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP against the Angels in his last start. It’s juicy, but this is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, take the Mariners.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves clinched the division last night so they should be sitting a lot of their players today. Huascar Ynoa also hasn’t been great since returning from the IL going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in September. Tylor Megill has struggled lately but he has pitched well against the Braves this season and he should be facing a watered down Braves lineup. The Mets haven’t been great at 11-16 in September, but this is a bet banking on the Braves starters sitting after winning the division.

Rating: 2 Units

 Of course we were on the Orioles the only game of the series against the Red Sox that they didn’t cover, but that’s just how it goes sometimes. However, the Red Sox are spiraling having not scored more than 3 runs in 5 of their last 6 games now. They face another lefty tonight in Josh Rogers after facing all the Orioles lefties that gave them fits. Josh Rogers has been solid for the Nats in five starts so far not allowing more than 3 runs in any of them. Eduardo Rodriguez has been decent lately but the Nats have the best wOBA in the league against lefties, and Rodriguez should get the hook at any sign of trouble. The Red Sox have been much worse on the road this season AND they lose the DH. My main worry is the Nats bullpen so Nats F5 would probably be the best play but I am taking the value in the Nats at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays are in no way gonna lay down in this game, but they have to look ahead. They could be facing the Yankees in the ALDS if the Yankees win the Wild Card game, so they won’t want to show their hand in these games that don’t matter for them. That doesn’t mean they aren’t gonna try, but it does mean they might go with pitchers that might not make the ALDS roster or pitch relievers in different roles. The Yankees on the other hand are 2 games up on the Wild Card, and would clinch a playoff spot if they win and either the Red Sox or Mariners lose. Shane McClanahan has been good lately but he has struggled against the Yankees when he faced them, and the Yankees have been hitting lefties well lately. Nestor Cortes Jr. has a 2.38 ERA at home and he has allowed more than 3 ER in a start just once since being inserted into the starting rotation. Take the Yankees at home.

The Braves can clinch the division with one more win and I think they’ll do it tonight at home against the Phillies. They have won 5 straight games and 9 of their last 10 games while the Phillies have now lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 10. Kyle Gibson and the Phillies have both been worse on the road and Gibson is actually 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in September. Ian Anderson is coming off 1 ER in 7 IP in his last start and he has been solid in September. Take the Braves to clinch the division tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays not only clinched their division already, but they clinched home field advantage throughout the AL in the playoffs last night so they REALLY have nothing to play for. Getaway day for the Rays and they should go with a bullpen game. The Astros on the other hand still need 1 more win or 1 more Mariners loss to clinch the division, and since the Mariners don't play tonight, winning is their only chance to clinch tonight. Lance McCullers Jr. has been the Astros best starter this season, lay the juice at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cards regulars should all be back in the lineup today as the try to build momentum for the Wild Card game and they are facing lefty Brett Anderson. The Cards have been one of the best teams in the league at hitting lefties the second half of the season. Anderson has been worse on the road and he allowed 6 runs in 1.2 IP in his last start which was against the Cards. He shouldn’t go too deep even if he does pitch well. JA Happ has been solid since a blowup game in Cincy not allowing a run in two of his last three starts. Take the Cards to win their 18th game in 19 tries.

Rating: 2 Units

 Max Fried has been absolutely dealing lately as he is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last 7 starts and he is coming off a complete game shutout in San Diego. Aaron Nola is noticeably worse on the road and he has really struggled this season. He pitched well against the Braves last time they met, but he wasn’t too great in any of the previous matchups. He also allowed 6 ER in 6 IP against the Pirates at home last start. If the Braves win tonight, they can’t clinch the division but they can clinch at least a tie for the division. The Braves have won 4 straight and 8 of 10, take the Braves.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays pitching staff is a liability while the Yankees have the best ERA in the AL right now. The Yankees have some hot hitters, mainly Giancarlo Stanton who is good for about a home run a game right now. But the Blue Jays are also running cold having won just 5 of their last 10 games. The Yankees have won 7 straight games and if they win tonight behind their ace they have the chance to clinch a Wild Card spot tomorrow. Jose Berrios pitched well against the Yankees in his first start but I think the only chance the Blue Kays have tonight is if Berrios pitches a quality start and goes at least 6 innings. The Yankees have the 3rd best record in the league the past 2 weeks at 9-3 and they are 5-1 on the road. The Blue Jays are just 6-6 the past 2 weeks and 3-2 at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Lets see how hot we really are… Both these teams have been pitching well lately, and the Red Sox haven’t been scoring much. Nathan Eovaldi was shelled in his last start against the Yankees but he gave up 3 ER in 5 IP against the Orioles in his start before that. Zac Lowther pitched 5 scoreless innings in his last start and he should build off the momentum of the good starts the Orioles pitching staff has been putting together. The Red Sox haven’t scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 4 games and the Os won Lowther’s start 3-0 last time around the rotation. The Red Sox struggled with lefty Bruce Zimmermann last night, I don’t see much changing tonight. Im gonna take the value on the Orioles at home on the run line at +143

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers have yet to lose a home game in September and I don’t see that happening with Walker Buehler on the mound tonight. He is coming off a rocky outing in Colorado so I think he will be juiced up for tonight. Yu Darvish has been better lately but he is still inconsistent. The Padres have been THE worst team in September going 6-16 and 2-9 on the road. The Dodgers have been the 4th best team in September going 16-7 and 7-0 at home. Take the Dodgers.

Rating: 2 Units

: Interesting move by the schedule makers having these teams play again but the Cardinals just swept the Brewers in 4 games in Milwaukee before extending their franchise long win streak in Chicago to 16 games. Now they head home where you know it will be rowdy as they look to clinch the Wild Card spot with a win. Adam Wainwright gave up a first inning Grand Slam in his last start against the Brewers but he will be much more settled down at home. Brandon Woodruff allowed 6 ER in 5 IP in his last start against the Cards and he hasn’t been exceptional losing each of his last three starts despite pitching ok. If the Cards are gonna continue to be underdogs on this streak there’s no reason not to take them... at least until they clinch.

Rating: 2 Units

 I hate to do this as my heart is with the Blue Jays but the Yankees are playing very good baseball right now and Giancarlo Stanton is hot. Jameson Taillon is coming off the IL to make this start but I don’t think he will have a long leash as the Yankees have a very good bullpen. Hyun Jin Ryu is also coming off the IL to make this start and he has dominated the Yankees this season. However, he has been very bad lately, and the Yankees have been crushing lefties. Rogers Centre will be rockin' tonight, but it’s not like Fenway Park wasn’t the past few days. The Yankees have won 6 straight games and the Blue Jays have lost 5 of their last 10. The wrong team is favored, take the value in the underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates are playing some of the best baseball in the league right now while the Cubs have lost 11 of their last 13 games and 14 of their last 18 games. The Pirates are 6-3 at home in September and Mitch Keller has been solid in September going at least 5 innings in all his starts and only allowing more than 2 runs once. He also pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Cubs earlier this month. Alec Mills allowed 5 ER in 5.2 IP to the Pirates when he faced them and he is 0-1 with a 7.08 ERA in September. The Pirates have the starting pitching advantage, and they are the hotter team, take the Pirates at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners are 12-4 against the Athletics this season and they have won 9 straight games straight up. Chris Flexen is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 7 games and he allowed just 1 run in 7 IP against the As in his last start. Cole Irvin is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA in his last 7 games and the best he pitched against the Mariners this season was his last start where he allowed 3 ER in 5 IP. The Mariners have won 8 of their last 10.

Rating: 2 Units

Josiah Gray was good in his last outing but he has never pitched in Coors Field. He also struggled when he faced the Rockies in Washington last week. German Marquez has been good at home this season and so have the Rockies. However, the Rockies have weird reverse splits in September but I think they’re more due than anything. Not to mention, their home games have been against the Giants and Dodgers. The Nats bullpen has been awful and they should play a big part in a game at Coors Field.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox flew into Detroit for a single game today before they fly home tomorrow and they are sitting plenty of regulars including Tim Anderson. They have nothing to play for right now while the Tigers are still at home after yesterday’s series and they have something to play for in getting to that 81st win. Matt Manning has been much better at home and he allowed just 3 ER in 5 IP in his last start which was against the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel is 1-3 with a 7.92 ERA in his last 7 games and he allowed only 2 runs in 5 IP against the Tigers last start but he gave up 11 hits. The Tigers just swept the White Sox at home last week, take the Tigers at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cards keep winning and keep getting undervalued. At this point, I just think its dumb not to ride the Cardinals until their streak runs out. The Cubs have lost 11 of 13 games while the Cards have won 15 straight games. It is a little bit of a possible letdown spot with the Cardinals beating the franchise record win streak yesterday, however I will keep taking the Cards if they are this cheap. Jake Woodford is stretched out and he has a 1.47 ERA in September. The Cubs will be going with mostly a bullpen game starting with Keegan Thompson and they have the second worst bullpen ERA in the league since the trade deadline. Take the Cards.

Rating: 2 Units

If the Nats had a bullpen, they could be 15 games over .500 since the trade deadline. Today, Josh Rogers is pitching and he has been really good and most importantly, gotten deep into games. Tyler Mahle is noticeably worse at home for whatever reason. Juan Soto is the hottest hitter in baseball and the Nats have a couple other players going well right now too. The Reds have been terrible this month so I can’t understand why they are this heavy favorites. Take the value in the Nats.

Rating: 2 Units

Huascar Ynoa has been decent since returning from the IL but he faces Vince Velasquez tonight who shouldn’t pitch too deep after pitching 1 inning and allowing 3 runs just three days ago. The Padres are 6-14 in September while the Braves are just 1.5 games up on the Phillies for the NL East. The Braves should be playing with some urgency and their bullpen is much fresher after 2 bullpen games for the Padres yesterday while Max Fried tossed a complete game. Take the Braves.

Rating: 2 Units

Tarik Skubal has been good at home with a 3.72 ERA and he shouldn’t go too deep into the game today so his stuff should play up a bit. Jon Heasley is making his second career start and he allowed 4 ER in 4 IP in his first start. The Tigers are 12-8 in September and 7-3 at home in September. The Tigers had plenty of chances in last night’s game but just couldn’t get runners crossing the plate for whatever reason. I mentioned yesterday how I didn’t think Comerica Park would benefit the Royals because they need home runs to score, so instead they hit two triples that resulted in runs. I don’t think that happens again tonight, I think the Tigers bounce back from their loss yesterday. Take the Tigers at home.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Cardinals have now won 14 straight games and I am not really sure why they are under -200 still. Jon Lester has pitched 5 straight games going 5 innings and allowing 2 or fewer runs which is big because the Cardinals bullpen is pretty worked right now. Adrian Sampson has been solid for the Cubs but he isn’t stretched out and shouldn’t go more than 5 innings. The Cubs have lost 10 of their last 12 games and they were beat bad twice yesterday. The Cards are 11-3 on the road in September and they are just 5 games up in the Wild Card. They have 8 games left so you know they see the finish line. The Cards scored at least 8 runs in both 7-inning games yesterday. Take the Cards to win their 15th straight.

Rating: 2 Units

Jose Suarez has actually been solid lately and the Mariners are just 4-3 in LA this season, so I can see why this line is where it is, but the Mariners have won 5 straight games and they are 13-7 in September including 10-3 on the road. The Angels are 7-13 in September and 3-9 at home. Logan Gilbert pitched well against the Angels in his first start against them and he has actually been better on the road. Gilbert is 1-0 with a 2.01 ERA in September (against Houston x2, Boston, and KC) and the Mariners have a much better bullpen than the Angels. Take the Mariners to keep Rollin.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers will be more than happy to see a team other than the Cardinals right now, and the poor hitting Mets are the perfect opponent. The Brewers have lost 5 straight games but the Mets have lost 8 of 10 games. Eric Lauer is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in his last 7 starts and 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA in September. The Mets struggle against lefties and they struggle on the road at 29-46 on the season. Tylor Megill is 0-3 with a 4.41 ERA on the road this season and he has really struggled in September going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Take the Brewers at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball since the beginning of June and they have won 4 straight games. They are 12-7 in September and 7-2 at home, and they just came off a home sweep of the White Sox. The Royals have been decent in September going 10-11. Carlos Hernandez struggled in his last outing allowing 7 ER in 4 IP, and he struggled against the Tigers the last time he faced them. Casey Mize won’t go deep into the game, but the Tigers bullpen has been lights out recently. The Royals need home runs to score, and I don’t think Comerica Park helps that tonight. Take the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees just swept the Rangers at home, but they are still just 10-11 in September. The Red Sox are finally healthy after a COVID outbreak and they have won 7 straight games. They are also 13-6 including 8-3 at home in September. Nathan Eovaldi is much better at home going 6-3 with a 2.99 ERA and he has pitched well against the Yankees every time he has faced them this season. Gerritt Cole has struggled against the Red Sox this season and he has struggled in August going 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA. The Red Sox have been one of the best home teams in the league since the trade deadline and they are 49-29 overall at home. The Red Sox are 10-6 against the Yankees this season and 6-1 at home.

Rating: 2 Units

This line seems like a mistake. The Cards are on a 12 game winning streak and I doubt they want it to stop until they clinch the Wild Card. JA Happ has actually been really good since coming over, only allowing more than 3 runs in 2 of his 9 starts. Justin Steele has been decent but he has had command issues having walked 9 batters in 14 IP this month. The Cards hit lefties well and they are 9-3 on the road in September. The Cubs have lost 8 of their last 10 games.

Rating: 2 Units

 White Sox will have clinched the division with a win in the first game so I have to imagine they will be sitting some players in game 2. Zach Plesac has been solid and we lost the first game of this doubleheader so we will play the home dog again and try to turn a profit. I am a little worried this line will skyrocket with the lineups announced in game 2 if everyone sits, so we will make this play before the game ends and hope the White Sox A. don’t blow it and B. sit their starters in Game 2.

Rating: 2 Units

Logan Webb has been tone of the best pitchers in the league lately and he pitched a quality start in his only appearance against the Padres this season. Yu Darvish has been one of the worst pitchers in the league lately and he allowed 4 HR and 8 ER against the Giants 10 days ago. The Giants are 15-5 in September and they are 8-0 on the road, good for second in the league. The Padres are 5-13 in September, good for second to last in the league. Buster Posey will probably be out of the lineup but it’s the Giants lefties that pose the biggest risk to Darvish. Padres have lost 5 straight and 8 of 10, take the Giants.

Rating: 2 Units

Adrian Houser has pitched well lately and pitched well against the Cardinals this season, but Adam Wainwright has pitched just as good, if not better and he has pitched well against the Brewers this season. The Cardinals have won 11 straight including the first 3 games of this series yet they are still dogs. The Cards are 15-6 while the Brewers are 10-9 in September, so with the starting pitching matchup a wash, I am gonna take the team that’s hot. Not to mention, the Cards gave all their top bullpen pieces the day off yesterday with the blowout. Take the Cards.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the first game of a doubleheader and the Indians are home dogs in both games currently. The White Sox were just swept by the Tigers while the Indians salvaged the last game of a series against the Royals. I don’t think either team is good enough right now to sweep today and I think the Indians have the starting pitching advantage in both 7-inning games so I will go with the home dog in the Indians. If they win, we stay off game 2, if they lose we go with the Indians as home dogs again and hope to profit.

Rating: 2 Units

Normally I would stay away from betting against Walker Buehler but Coors Field is a little different. German Marquez is 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season and the Rockies are 45-28 at home. The Dodgers are just 6-5 on the road in September. If the Rockies can keep this game close going into the late innings, I think they can steal a win tonight. Take the value in the Rockies at home.

Rating: 2 Units

 I don't even need to see the lineups for this game as the wind is projected to be blowing in from left field at nearly 23 mph -- hence the tiny total. Twins pitcher Joe Ryan (2.12 ERA) has been very good in his three big-league starts, and the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks is always capable of shutting a team out.