Rating: 2 Units

Scary-good price on Houston at home. Frankly, I don't get it. Sometimes, I can throw stats at you, etc., but this is crazy. It's not like the Stros are starting the Lupus kid from Bad News Bears (Kelly Leak, different story). I guess it's because Houston starter Jake Odorizzi has been a bit hit or miss lately but I'll take my chances at this number.

Rating: 2 Units

Kris Bubic was hit hard last time out against the Cardinals, but that was his second time seeing the lineup in a row and he had been pitching well before that. The Cubs also tend to struggle against lefties. Keegan Thompson has been good but he should only go 2 innings or so in a bullpen game. Sal Perez is in the lineup after getting banged up yesterday, take the Royals.

Rating: 2 Units

 Pretty surprised this ML is so low. Dallas Keuchel is the weak link of the Chicago rotation. Stud Rays rookie Randy Arozarena (yeah, he's tech a rookie even though he dominated the 2020 postseason) is also back in the lineup for the Rays. He got Friday off.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams are equally putrid on the road -- literally the same record away -- but Colorado is a monster at home. It also was off Thursday, while Arizona had to use closer Taylor Clarke for 26 pitches to hold off the Phillies, so he's probably out. Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.70 home ERA. He's countered by Mr. Shocking No-Hitter Tyler Gilbert. Tend to think things will go a tad differently in his second big-league start -- first start after no-hitters, many pitchers really struggle because of that previous high pitch count -- and first in Denver.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'm a White Sox fan so I hope they win (and probably would go to one of these games if the Trop wasn't such a dump and in an out-of-the-way location), but the Pale Hose are basically a .500 team on the road and the Rays are an absolute juggernaut at home. Yes, Tampa starting pitcher Michael Wacha has been pretty bad lately as Larry Hartstein mentioned on Early Edge in playing a Wacha Under prop, but the Rays have a very deep bullpen and I'm guessing Wacha has an incredibly short leash. On the flip side, the White Sox's Lucas Giolito has been wildly inconsistent. Frankly, whichever team was the underdog I would have taken at +1.5 in this one. Rays it is at -150.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota rookie lefty Charlie Barnes probably will be a bit intimidated in his first-ever start at Yankee Stadium, and he was roughed up in his lone road start so far (Cincinnati). On the flip side, Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. continues to surprise and has a 1.45 home ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

Going to jump this one early as a few books have already seen the total drop to 8 and that half-run could easily be the difference. It's Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phils, and he loves pitching during the day (1.43 ERA). Arizona's Madison Bumgarner has been one of the NL's best pitchers since the All-Star break. Educated guess: Phils All-Star catcher JT Realmuto (and maybe another regular) sits out this getaway game ahead of a big series in San Diego.

Rating: 2 Units

Even at a big price of -160, going to take Tigers +1.5 runline as a safety net (they probably win outright) only as I believe they will be -1.5 by the morning because the Angels scratched starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has been quite good. He's headed to the injured list. In his place will be lefty Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.12). He has been decent as a reliever this year but awful starting (7.22 ERA). The Tigers are five games over .500 vs. southpaws -- have won their past four -- and their rookie pitcher, Matt Manning, has been much better at home.

Rating: 2 Units

On Monday, the Dodgers did not light up the scoreboard, scoring just two runs against Pittsburgh. After completing a six-game road trip and a late Sunday flight from New York, that offensive struggle was expected. On Tuesday, L.A.'s bats should be back in order against the struggling Pirates and pitcher Will Crowe. Since the money line price is heavy, take the better price with the run line. Play the Dodgers.

Rating; 2 Units

 Amidst several injuries, the Padres will start Matt Strahm as an opener for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies. He likely won’t pitch beyond a couple of innings, lessening the impact of his high ERA (8.44). Although the Rockies have been effective at home, pitcher German Marquez has struggled since the All-Star break. Take the Padres at even money.

Rating: 2 Units

On Tuesday, the Brewers start their third straight road series, at St. Louis. Pitching for the Cardinals will be Adam Wainwright, who is coming off a complete game shutout over the Pirates. He’s also been magnificent against the Brewers, winning four of his last five starts. But I expect yesterday’s off day to be beneficial for Milwaukee, led by pitcher Corbin Burnes. Take the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

Could be history tonight as Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is one homer shy of 500 career. The Tigers were off Monday and are 7-1 in their past eight following an off day, but this is more about fading the Angels, who are playing in their third city in three nights (Anaheim, New York, Detroit), and their pitcher, Dylan Bundy. He is 2-9 with 6.21 ERA in 17 starts this year and 1-6 with a 7.48 ERA in night games. I expect this ML to rise a bit during the day.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs have now lost 12 straight games and they are 21-41 on the road. They are 1-15 since the trade deadline and Kyle Hendricks was hit hard by the Reds the last time he faced them, and hit hard by the Brewers in his last start. Vladimir Gutierrez is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in August and he pitched well against the Cubs both times he faced them this season. The Reds didn’t need to use any of their best relievers last night and now they are just 1.5 games out of the Wild Card. As long as we keep getting a ML under -200 against the Cubs, we are taking it. Especially when they’re on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees are on fire right now but the Red Sox have owned this matchup so far this season. This will be the first matchup since the trade deadline and with the Yankees just 1.5 games back, you know Yankee Stadium will be rockin. Jordan Montgomery has faced the Red Sox three times this season and was one out away from three quality starts. Tanner Houck has been good but he struggles with walks and he doesn’t get deep into games. Take the value on the Yankees at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets are in for a challenge against the Giants. On Sunday night, they were trounced 14-4 at home by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a prime-time spot. Now they travel across the country to face the best team in majors. Look for a better effort from New York, which has been priced based on its underachieving play since the All-Star break. Play the Mets.

Rating: 2 Units

We've said this over and over, but no team is better at home on the runline than Colorado. I get you can't really favor the Rockies over a very good Padres team, but I'll happily take +1.5 at only -125. San Diego pitcher Ryan Weathers has been absolutely obliterated in his past three starts overall and has a 9.00 ERA in three outings vs. Colorado -- which is above .500 vs. lefties. Rox starter Antonio Senzatela is nothing special but always pitches better in Denver. The Friars are 1-5 in their past six as road favorites.

Rating: 2 Units

Should the Indians even be underdogs? I'm not sure they should, but I'll take the +1.5 runline gift behind Cal Quantrill. While the Tribe lost his last outing, it wasn't Quantrill's fault as he allowed just two earned over six -- his sixth straight start allowing two earned or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Griffin Jax has a 6.14 ERA at home. The Twins are just 3-10 in their past 13 following a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel makes his first start against a non-divisional opponent since before the All-Star break. Expect that to be beneficial for Keuchel, as he has recorded just one win since June 15. Back the White Sox as they bounce back after having lost four of their previous five contests.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves continue their road trip with the opener of a three-game series in Miami. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball as it has won 10 of 12, a stretch that has catapulted the team into first place in the National League East. Expect the momentum to continue as the Marlins four-game winning streak comes to a halt.

Rating: 2 Units

Max Scherzer has been excellent since coming to the Dodgers and may have a bit more on his fastball today as his last start was only 3.1 innings due to rain. In his career at Citi Field, he is 9-2 with a 2.03 ERA. New York's Carlos Carrasco has not been great in his three outings after missing a ton of time with a torn hamstring. Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner is back in the starting lineup after a groin injury kept him out a few games (did pinch-hit Saturday).

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox thrive against lefties and face Yanks southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. He had largely been a great rotation fill in but has been a bit shaky of late and his road ERA is two points higher than at Yankee Stadium. Chicago's Lucas Giolito has allowed two earned or fewer in five of his past six.

Rating: 2 Units

Friday featured one of the strangest ninth innings on the year in MLB between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Seattle stole the win as big underdogs with a bases-loaded, walk-off victory. Yet, on Saturday night look for the Blue Jays to snap out of their two-game funk of three runs or less against lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Play the Blue Jays.

Rating: 2 Units

I am trying to figure out if there may be a hangover from that incredible Field of Dreams game. Unprecedented obviously. So I'll just take the Sox here because Dylan Cease has been so good at home and the Yanks are still without all the players why we bet against them on Thursday (and nearly had a stroke). Rare sellout on South Side and I do think that matters slightly.

Rating: 2 Units

The sporadic St. Louis Cardinals surprisingly have the second best win streak in MLB at four. To reach at fifth straight win, Jon Lester must overcome his woeful first two starts as a Cardinal. Expect a lot of runs as St. Louis drew five walks and scored five runs against Royals pitcher Brad Keller last Saturday. Take the team with momentum in St. Louis.

Rating: 2 Units

If you listen (watch? not a tech guy) the Early Edge, you know I am Cubs Fade central. They will obviously win a game or two and burn us but will still be super profitable fading the rest of the way. Won't get prices much lower than this. I don't really see that happening here. Marlins pitcher Zach Thompson has a 2.45 home ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

While Angels pitcher Patrick Sandoval has been pretty good, I'm surprised this ML is so low on Houston behind Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.69). He's 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA on the road and has a 2.57 ERA in two starts vs. the Angels. Houston also is expecting back first baseman Yuli Gurriel (.324, 12 HR, 66 RBI) off the injured list. Sandoval allowed four runs in two innings in his lone 2021 outing vs. Houston. The Astros, who destroy lefties, also have the benefit of being off Thursday, while the Angels had to use closer Raisel Iglesias for 1.1 innings so he may not be available.

Rating: 2 Units

The A's have won seven straight. They should be even bigger favorites against a Texas team that's lost eight of nine while getting outscored 49-18. The Rangers rank dead last in OPS versus lefties (.641); tonight they face lefty Cole Irvin, who allowed two runs on four hits over seven innings in a 12-3 rout of Texas last Saturday. Coming off an ankle injury, Texas' Dane Dunning is making his first start since Aug. 2. Lay it as Oakland improves to 38-15 in its last 53 versus the Rangers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins are trash, but the Cubs are Lollapalooza last day porta potty sewage at this point, having lost eight in a row -- the past seven by multiple runs. Now Willson Contreras is out. Chicago also had to travel Thursday while the Fish were off. Cubs pitcher Adbert Alzolay actually looks like a potential part of the future but is 1-7 with a 5.06 ERA on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

 I enjoy being the contrarian among the experts when apt and will be on this game. Was on Boston on Tuesday as well and felt safe with the Sox up 4-1 entering the sixth only for the bullpen to implode. Now five back in the division and almost caught by the third-place Yankees, this feels like desperation time for the Sox. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has been a bit inconsistent of late but can dominate and leads the AL in fewest homers allowed per nine innings. He also has been much better at home (3.42 ERA). On the flip side, Tampa lefty Josh Fleming has a 6.39 road ERA. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Bobby Dalbec are a combined 7-for-11 off him with two HRs. Not betting the total, but consider this: In each of the last 11 meetings between these teams at Fenway Park, they have combined to score at least 10 runs.

Rating: 2 Units

the Fish are missing leadoff man and terrific rookie second baseman Jazz Chisholm (IL) and slugging first baseman Jesus Aguilar (.266, 20 HR, 79 RBI) is not starting today. San Diego is of course down Fernando Tatis Jr. and is resting Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth. The Friars have not seen Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (2.04 ERA during day) while San Diego's Ryan Weathers (1.29 ERA during day) threw four scoreless in Miami last month. Winds won't be a factor. Petco is still a pitchers' park.

Rating: 2 Units

Major travel disadvantage for the Reds as after playing Sunday at home had to fly to Cleveland for a makeup game Monday, laid an egg there to see their five-game winning streak end and then fly to Atlanta to open this series. The Braves were off Monday. Two big injury/rest notes here: Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker (.307, 23 HR, 67 RBIs) is not starting, while Braves All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman is back from a non-COVID illness. Cincy pitcher Sonny Gray has been shaky in three of his past four outings, while Atlanta's Drew Smyly rarely gives up more than three runs -- although he rarely goes more than five innings, either. The Braves are 5-1 in their past six series openers.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Sox are scuffling in a major way, but most of that was away from home -- they are 14-5 in their past 19 at Fenway. Boston is also 3-0 at home vs. Tampa this year. Rays starter Luis Patino has been terrific at home but has a 7.41 road ERA in 17 innings and has never pitched at historic Fenway. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been trending the right way and has thrown at least five scoreless innings in three of his past six. The Red Sox are 9-2 in his last 11 starts overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland is 12-4 coming off a day off (second-best winning percentage in MLB) and is hitting significantly better on the road this year than at home. Ace lefty Sean Manaea also is much better away as he has the third-lowest road ERA in the American League (2.64) and second-lowest road opponents' batting average (.198) and OPS (.565). Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA at home and 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA at night.

Rating: 2 Units

About a month ago, I probably wouldn't have bet against the Mets' Taijuan Walker but he has fallen off a cliff or shrub or whatever your metaphor (do people fall off shrubs?). The Phillies' Zack Wheeler also is regressing a bit but is still a better pitcher. Honestly don't love a lot of games today but this seems safe with the Phils on fire. What do I know? I just watched Beaches with my lovely wife and am still crying ... not gonna cry Roy!

Rating: 2 Units

 Really not sure what to say. I've done some trading and I don't get this. Bet the Rockies at home. Amazing price considering Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.98 ERA at home. This feels at least 30 cents short.

Rating: 2 Units

Still irked about Dodgers. Would have had the best day of season. Whatever. Price seems a bit low on this one. We won on the Cards on Friday and fully expect to again. Kwang Hyung Kim > Brad Keller. As Denzel said in Training Day said, this **** ain't chess it's checkers.

Rating: 2 Units

The A's rested Thursday while the Rangers dropped their third straight, 5-0 at home to the Angels, then had to fly west. Oakland is a 11-4 following an off day. Texas has scored four runs in its last three games, is 4-17 in its last 21 overall and starts Mike Foltynewicz, who has an 8.38 road ERA. Back Chris Bassitt and Oakland to get a convincing win, laying 1.5 runs at -125.

Rating: 2 Units

We've bet the Rockies all week, and they should have swept the Cubs but took two out of three. The Marlins aren't much better than the Cubs and are 15 games under .500 on the road. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is a good pitcher but worse away (5-6, 3.71 ERA) and at night (3-5, 4.06). Colorado is 17-5 in its past 22 at home vs. a righty. It starts German Marquez. He is 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA over his last eight starts and 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA over his last seven at home. VERY rare to see a total Under 10 in Denver but this one is set at 9.5. I'd probably still lean Under but will not play it.

Rating: 2 Units

 I wouldn't call the Tigers hot garbage on the road, but perhaps warm refuse. Such a different team outside of Comerica Park. And rookie pitcher Matt Manning is the same, going 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA on the road -- in late June, he was bombed for nine runs in Cleveland. On the flip side, the Tribe's Cal Quantrill has quietly become one of the AL's better pitchers. He's 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his past five. Cleveland is 11-5 in its past 16 as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

 This is a massive game in the NL East, and the Phillies come into it hot. In a matchup of two starters having strong seasons, the home team should have a nice edge that is not fully reflected in this line. Both these teams went deep into their pitching staffs using five pitchers each. The Phillies are 6-1 since June 29 coming off a road game in which they used at least five pitchers. Meanwhile, the Mets are 0-6 since July 27 coming off a game as a favorite in which they used at least five pitchers.

Rating;  Units

I've been fading the Cubs all week, and many times I probably will not when Kyle Hendricks is on the mound, especially at home, but man that lineup looks laughable today behind Hendricks with Willson Contreras getting the game off and Jason Heyward (not that he's any good) landing on the injured list. I don't see how the Cubs score much against the Sox's Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07). The Sox do lose the DH but are keeping Eloy Jimenez's bat in the lineup by playing him (dangerously) in left field. The wind is blowing out pretty hard at Wrigley, and Hendricks does give up a lot of homers. Lynn does not.

Rating: 2 Units

Phillies starter Aaron Nola isn't nearly the ace he was in years past, but he's been pretty close the last two times out, allowing just three runs in 14 2/3 innings while striking out 14. The Nationals' new-look offense shouldn't be a problem for him. On the other side, Nationals starter Joe Ross spun five scoreless innings against the Phillies on July 26. Seeing him again with this quick turnaround is generally a big benefit to the offense with the familiarity. Plus, the Nationals' bullpen is a disaster right now. Even if it has to be late, the Phillies roll for their fifth straight win.

Rating: 2 Units

As I've said in this space and the Early Edge all week, I'll be FADING the Cubs in nearly every road game the rest of the season. Probably plenty at home, too. Yep, they burned me in a bit of a fluke on Wednesday, but this still will be a winning strategy overall. The Rockies will go with Antonio Senzatela, who hasn't pitched in about a month after a bout with COVID. His splits are much better at home and during the day. Chicago's Jake Arrieta might be the worst pitcher in the National League right now with a 9.55 ERA over his past eight, and he has really been hammered in three career starts at Coors Field.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's try this again on Detroit after losing on the runline Wednesday. Boston lefty Martin Perez is really coming back to earth after a solid start to the season as he hasn't won in his past four and his July ERA was 6.26. Detroit has won five of its past seven at home vs. lefties. It's southpaw Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, and he has been better at home with a 3.74 ERA (also better during the day). The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Tigers at -135 on the RL.

Rating: 2 Units

 I said in backing the Rockies on Tuesday that I'll be fading the Cubs PLENTY the rest of the season, and there's no reason why not to do so again here. While Tuesday's pitching matchup looked somewhat even, this doesn't. Colorado's Jon Gray has gone 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA since being reinstated from the injured list on June 25 and is 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA at home this year. Chicago's Alec Mills is 0-3 with a 5.93 ERA on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

A common theme for the Braves is the inability to get to or over the .500 mark. Yesterday’s win over the Cardinals puts them at 53-54. With Drew Smyly’s inability to extend beyond five innings, I look for the Cardinals to capitalize against the Braves bullpen. Grab St. Louis in J.A. Happ’s Cardinals debut.

Rating: 2 Units

We knew the Phils were going to be missing Andrew McCutchen, who landed on the IL earlier this week, but All-Star catcher JT Realmuto is getting the night off. Thus, I think Washington is a solid home wager at essentially a pick'em. Philadelphia pitcher Chase Anderson (2-4, 6.75) isn't very good and has an 8.74 ERA in 22.2 road innings. Washington's Paolo Espino has pitched to a 2.35 ERA with 15 strikeouts and two walks in his last three starts.

Rating: 2 Units

 This is the old-timers special trend with one team (Giants) winning three straight and another (D-backs) losing three straight. Bet it the fourth time to happen again. We don't really need a system for that obvious wisdom. It’s Arizona. But Johnny Cueto was dominant in his last start against the Dodgers allowing no runs in a 5-0 win. Giants to win.

Rating: 2 Units

No Fernando Tatis Jr. for San Diego, which we knew due to injury, but also big trade acquisition Adam Frazier is out of the lineup as well even though the Padres add the DH. Apparently, it's simply because the A's are starting a tough lefty in Sean Manaea. Last Wednesday in San Diego, he held the Padres to one hit in six scoreless innings and has a 2.18 ERA and opponents' batting average of .196 since the start of June. Friars lefty Blake Snell was torched for seven runs over four opposite Manaea last week. Snell actually had good home numbers entering that one but has a ghastly 8.02 road ERA. San Diego is 0-6 in its past six as a road dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Post-trade deadline, the Cubs might have the worst everyday lineup and bullpen in the National League -- and I say this as a fan. Complete white flag, and I don't mean the one with the W. I'll be fading them a lot the rest of the way. The Rox remain an excellent home team and Kyle Freeland has a 1.98 ERA over his last seven starts since June 22, the third-lowest ERA in the Majors over that span. The Cubbies are 1-8 in their last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has alternated wins and losses every game since the break, the longest such streak in MLB history. The Braves did lose their most recent game Sunday for what that's worth. They start Max Fried, who is 2-4 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. It's the Cards debut of Jon Lester, and he was solid in two starts vs. the Braves this year while with Washington. St. Louis has won 15 of its past 21 at home since June 9, the best home win percentage in the majors over that span. St. Louis’ .667 win pct. (10-5) on Tuesdays this season is tops in the NL. Not predicting an outright win here, but I'll take the runline at -135.

Rating: 2 Units

Big price, but the Pirates are sitting their best remaining hitter (post-Adam Frazier trade) in Bryan Reynolds as well as very good starting catcher Jacob Stallings. Both are excellent defensively, while Reynolds' 44 extra-base hits are tied for third among all National League outfielders. His 18 homers and 58 RBIs lead the team. That lineup likely won't do much against Adrian Houser, who has a 2.05 ERA in his past five starts and 2.49 in four outings this year vs. Pittsburgh. The Bucs start struggling rookie Max Kranick (7.31 ERA), who was roughed up at home last week by these Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Twins have lost four of their last five games and now give the ball to RHP Kenta Maeda, who has been outstanding in his last five starts - even though the team has lost the last three. Minnesota looks lifeless at times and now is 18 games below .500. The Reds (56-50) are fighting hard to make the playoffs and are only four games behind in the race for the final NL wild-card spot. Cincinnati has won 14 of RHP Tyler Mahle’s 21 starts, including the last two. Take the Reds to win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays were one of the big home favorites who were surprised Monday night, but they don't lose back-to-back at home often. Even with Monday's loss, the Rays are 27-9 at home since May 13, best in the majors over that stretch. They face Mariners All-Star lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who might be hitting a wall with a 7.71 ERA in his past four starts. Tampa's Luis Patino has pitched just 14.2 innings at home this year but has a 0.61 ERA. Seattle is 5-0 vs. Tampa Bay, which should be plenty of motivation for Rays manager Kevin Cash to give his guys. Nelson Cruz is 4-for-5 career off Kikuchi with two homers.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington had a chance at yesterday’s matchup, but its thin bullpen ultimately let the Nats down. The matchup today is much tougher. Washington lost in yesterday’s series opener, 7-5. The Nationals are 0-6 since Sept. 12, 2020, as a dog after a game as a home dog in which they allowed at least six runs. The Washington bullpen allowed six runs in that game including all five runs in the ninth inning. The Nationals are 1-10 since June 25 past the first game of a series after their bullpen allowed multiple runs in the previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Angels finally have announced their starting pitcher: Chris Rodriguez is being recalled but probably won't go more than a couple of innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 big-league innings and this will be the rookie's first start. I feel comfortable taking the Rangers at home on the runline behind Dane Dunning, who is 4-2 with a 2.58 ERA at home. Texas is actually pretty competent in its own ballpark

Rating: 2 Units

Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez's last appearance came in relief against Washington on Thursday. He'll make his first start since 2018 this time around. That puts Suarez in a tough spot, as he gave up an unearned run, two hits and a walk on Thursday. Grab the Nationals to cash as home underdogs in RHP Josiah Gray’s team debut.

Rating: 2 Units

Look for the Yankees to tee off on the Orioles' Jorge Lopez, who is 0-6 with a 7.43 ERA in his last nine starts. He owns a 7.23 career ERA versus New York, including an 8.44 ERA this season. Andrew Heaney makes his Yankees debut and is coming off two strong starts in which he allowed five earned runs over 13 innings while fanning 15. With D.J. LeMahieu expected back in the lineup, I'll back the Yanks -1.5 runs

Rating: 2 Units

Today  is "Civic Holiday" in Canada so why this game is the lone matinee on the MLB schedule. I believe the Jays are going to have a massive home-field advantage this season with all the strict COVID protocols involving other teams. They will just want to get out of there because they are essentially under hotel lockdown (too bad because Toronto is awesome; I'd move there tomorrow if not so cold). Appears to be a huge pitching mismatch between Cleveland's Eli Morgan (1-7, 7.47) and Toronto's Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04). Not much value on the Jays -260 on the money line, so we'll do the run line at -138.

Rating: 2 Units

In this matchup for the AL East lead, Tampa Bay does not have the advantage that this line would suggest. Boston desperately needs to salvage the series finale and should be all in to achieve that. There has been a value on Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta as an underdog of late. Boston is 6-2 since Sept. 27, 2020 when Pivetta starts as an underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

Daulton Jeffries has made one career start and Reid Detmers is making his Major league debut today. Neither of these pitchers will be much better than the other but the Angels have scored 1 run in the first three games of this series. The Athletics have the bullpen advantage and the lineup advantage with the Angels battling through injuries, take the As.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta's Charlie Morton is better than Milwaukee's Brett Anderson by a fair amount. Solid price

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies are desperate to avoid the sweep and they've got a significant pitching edge Sunday, with Kyle Gibson versus Mitch Keller. The Pirates have never seen Gibson, who made the All-Star team this season while with the Rangers. Keller just got recalled from the minors. In the majors this year, he's posted a 7.04 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Lay it.

10* Total of the Week

The 0ver is 15-4-2 in Twins last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record, 21-6 in Twins last 27 during game 2 of a series, and 26-10-3 in Twins last 39 vs. a team with a winning record. While the over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 interleague home games, 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter, and 5-1-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Rating: 2 Units

Wow cheap price. The White Sox now have the best bullpen in the majors after landing Craig Kimbrel, whom I assume is available. Not like he had to move. If Chicago leads after six innings the rest of this season with Michael Kopech, Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks, it's over. The ML is a bit low because Sox starter Dallas Keuchel is meh. But the Indians are in white-flag territory.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners have that last AL wild card in sight, only 2.5 games back, and know they have to win games against bad teams like the Rangers. This bet is mostly against Texas' Taylor Hearn making just his third start this season; the first two were Rangers losses. New Seattle starter Tyler Anderson had a decent season with the Pirates who went 9-9 in his starts. He’ll give up a few, but I’m expecting the Mariners to jump all over Hearn. Seattle to win.

Rating: 2 Units

Angels starter Jaime Barria will be pitching for the team for just the fourth time this season. He has an expected slugging percentage of .496 in his limited work at the Major League level, which isn’t good, and he is likely to struggle against a solid A’s lineup. I see Cole Irvin as a pitcher who should be able to keep Oakland in the game; he has only allowed more than four earned runs once all year in 20 starts. I’ll back the A’s to win their eighth straight against the Angels.

Rating: 2 Units

Just like I thought Thursday's line was way too short on the A's, I think this is too. Remember, the Halos are without three of their best hitters on the injured list with Jared Walsh joining this week. Shohei Ohtani walked three times in Thursday's loss, and I don't know why the A's would bother pitching to him (or any team would right now). It's All-Star Chris Bassitt (10-3, 3.46) on the mound for Oakland. He's 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two starts this year against the Angels, who have lost four in a row vs. teams with winning records.

Rating: 2 Units

The Twins will scratch ace Jose Berrios as he was traded to Toronto so I will jump the Cards at -150 on the runline while they are still moneyline underdogs. They won't be for long. I'd take St. Louis as a ML dog right now if I knew Nolan Arenado was playing, but he's in question with a bruised right forearm. Plus, not known yet whom Minnesota will start but I feel more than comfortable at the Cards +1.5 with it not being Berrios. Wade LeBlanc has been serviceable on the mound for the Redbirds.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Mariners are just 2.5 games behind the final wild card spot and face what is now the worst lineup in the AL and one of the worst starters in Kolby Allard. (Texas has lost seven straight Allard starts.) Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert is the hottest starter in baseball with the M’s winning his last 10 starts, including all five of his road starts. The Rangers are batting only .159 and averaging just 1.8 runs since the All-Star break. Mariners to win.

Rating: 2 Units

It's Matt Harvey Day! Wait, is Harvey actually good again? Rather improbably, the Orioles right-hander has pitched six shutout innings in back-to-back starts to "lower" his ERA to 6.65. Sorry, I'm not buying that the Dark Knight is back. The Tigers have won 10 straight at home and go with lefty Tarik Skubal, who has been better at home this year. He has allowed two earned or fewer in three of his past four at Comerica Park, and the O's have never seen him. They are 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees will lose the designated hitter, which is usually Giancarlo Stanton, but presumably Friday will be the debut of trade acquisitions Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. Good look navigating that lineup. Jameson Taillon's road ERA is 6.08, but he has turned things around away from home in allowing just four earned runs over 20 innings in his past three on the road -- and against lineups much better than Miami's. Overall, Taillon has allowed two earned or fewer in six of his last seven outings. Plus, if you have ever been to South Florida, this will be a Yankees home crowd if that type of thing matters to you.

Rating: 2 Units

 Books just opened this because the Angels will not start Alex Cobb as they hoped (blister) but instead Dylan Bundy (1-7, 6.69). He's the West Coast version of Matt Harvey and should always be faded. His ERA in 5.2 innings vs. Oakland this year? 17.47. A's starter Frankie Montas has a 1.42 ERA in two starts vs. the Angels, who lost another big bat to IL this week in Jared Walsh. Meanwhile, it should be the debut of A's trade acquisition and outfielder Starling Marte.

Rating: 2 Units

I suppose you worry about a team a day after scoring 17 runs as it usually seems then said team scores like one, but Detroit was without two of its better hitters Thursday in their 17-14 win over the Vikings, err Twins, in Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera and both are back in there tonight. Detroit enters on a nine-game home winning streak, its longest since a 10-game streak from July 14-August 15, 2013. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize (5-5, 3.63) generally won't last more than five innings but usually not give up more than two runs. It's southpaw Alexander Wells for the Birds (1-1, 4.35) and Detroit is 7-3 in its past 10 vs. a lefty.

Rating: 2 Units

Pretty even pitching matchup overall between lefties Hyun Jin Ryu and Eduardo Rodriguez, but Ryu has a 3.00 ERA this year in two starts vs. Boston and Rodriguez has a 5.73 in two vs. Toronto. What sways me toward the Toronto runline is that Sox WAR leader Rafael Devers (3.7 WAR, 27 HRs, 82 RBIs) isn't playing. He has been scorching hot of late. I almost never take outright MLB underdogs on the moneyline.

Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Month

Heaney (6-7, 5.32 ERA) gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in a 3-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. That result couldn't have come soon enough for Heaney, considering his previous outings. The 30-year-old posted a 1-4 record with an 8.79 ERA in his previous five starts. So perhaps it's no surprise that Heaney gave himself a little pep talk after each inning against the Twins. Heaney will be opposed Wednesday by Rockies right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06), who has surrendered six runs or more in four of his 15 starts. The most recent such occurrence came July 16 when he was rocked for seven runs and nine hits in just four innings of a 10-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox are 16-0 as a road favorite of at least -135 after playing as a road favorite when their opponent's starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than 2.00 on the season and it is not a series opener. The Royals are 0-15 as a dog of at least +125 when they are coming off a game as a dog in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and it is not a series opener.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh didn't put up any fight in the series opener and now will face Brewers RHP Adrian Houser, who has helped bring significant success to the team of late. Milwaukee rolled to a 9-0 victory on Tuesday and is 8-0 since June 8, 2019 in the second game of a series following a win by at least five runs as a favorite. Pittsburgh's offense was unable to get going even as that contest went on. The Pirates are 0-13 since May 23 after a game as underdogs in which they did not score after the third inning.

Rating: 2 Units

 We’ve got a battle of southpaws in San Diego today with Blake Snell vs. Sean Manaea. Manaea is coming off a 13 strikeout performance and should be able to get deep into the game. Blake Snell has been very hit or miss, and the Athletics are good at taking their walks. Neither of these teams are exceptional against lefties so take the value in the dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Seattle might have the slight starting pitching edge in lefty Yusei Kikuchi over Jake Odorizzi, but the Astros have the vastly better lineup and bullpen. Plus, the Mariners players are still apparently outraged that management traded their best reliever to Houston on Tuesday. You won't get Houston at this low of a price often so it's worth the road risk -- plus, the team kills lefties.

Rating: 2 Units

Not sure I've ever backed a team as a betting favorite on a 12-game losing streak, but there's a first for everything. To be fair to Texas, the past 10 of those losses have been on the road (they have led for one half-inning in that span) and the team has been pretty competitive this year at home. Pitcher Dane Dunning is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA at home and has a 2.89 ERA in his past four starts overall, three of them won by the Rangers. Only the Rockies have fewer road wins than the Diamondbacks, who are 0-7 this year vs. the American League.

Rating; 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays are 10-0 in the first game of a home series with rest after a contest as road favorites in which they hit at least one home run. The Yankees are 0-9 as underdogs following a game as dogs in which they hit more homers than their opponent and 0-8 all-time with LHP Jordan Montgomery as underdogs when he had a WHIP of better than 1.2 in his previous start.

Rating: 2 Units

The first-place Brewers aren’t going with their best starter in LHP Brett Anderson, but the price is cheap because of it. Meanwhile, LHP Tyler Anderson has had a rebirth of sorts with Pittsburgh, which is 9-9 behind him. One of victories was a 2-0 triumph over Milwaukee on July 4. That defeat ended the Brewers' six-game winning streak in the series. Milwaukee has been dominating the Pirates for over a decade and will win again on Tuesday.

Rating: 2 Units

Coming out of the All-Star break, Angels RHP Shohei Ohtani looked extremely sharp on the mound and he should benefit from extra rest again. This is an opportunity for Ohtani to start as a solid home favorite, a spot in which he has shined. The Angels are 7-0 since May 13, 2018 when Ohtani starts as a home favorite of at least -125. Colorado has lost back-to-back games, both by one run to the Dodgers. The Rockies are 0-14 SU since August 12, 2011 as underdogs of at least +130 when they are coming off two straight one-run losses.

Rating: 2 Units

Kansas City is riding a season high-tying five-game winning streak after sweeping a three-game home series against Detroit. But the bubble has to burst soon as the team is 13 games under .500 and hosting a division leader. Royals LHP Mike Minor has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts and is 1-3 lifetime against Chicago. Meanwhile, White Sox LHP Dallas Keuchel is 6-1 versus Kansas City. Take Chicago.

 Gonna jump on this total at 8.5 while I can because I'm seeing it dropping to 8 at some books. Weather/winds don't look to be a factor, but the Cubs don't have big bat Javy Baez in the lineup against Wade Miley (8-4, 2.72). His road ERA is 2.52. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (12-4, 3.61) has a 2.19 ERA in four starts this month and allowed one run over six in his lone outing vs. Cincinnati this year.

Rating: 2 Units

The Washington Nationals continue to slide as they have lost four straight. On Today, they will battle an NL East divisional opponent in the Philadelphia Phillies, with Joe Ross returning from the injured list. Ross has not pitched since July 4 and likely won’t be over-extended. Look for the Phillies to capitalize in the latter innings against the Nationals bullpen that has struggled as of late.

Rating: 2 Units

Game 1 of a doubleheader so scheduled for seven innings. For what it's worth, the Braves have lost their past four DH openers and this is their sixth already this year. Since sweeping Washington in both games on April 7, Atlanta has lost five of seven doubleheader games overall. Mets pitcher Marcus Stroman comes off a dominant outing in Cincinnati and is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career starts against the Braves. New York has won six straight series openers.

Rating: 2 Units

Yes, Kyle Gibson (6-2, 2.86) is on the mound for Texas, and he has nice numbers overall and vs. Houston but appears to fading of late with a 7.41 ERA this month. Texas should have traded him when value was high. Even better: The Rangers' most dangerous hitter, Joey Gallo, is not in the lineup. Again, big price and will use in a parlay, but the Gallo news convinced me. Under might be wise too.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays have lost their last three games, and the Mets have won their last two. Taijuan Walker is on the mound for the Mets, which means they are likely to win. They’ve won 14 of his 17 starts this season, including all eight of his starts at home where his ERA is 1.75. Bettors are up 12 units overall behind him this season. How is Walker not favored today? Mets to win.

Rating: 2 Units

Seems a solid price on the Phils, who are pretty darn good at home. Checking the lineups (this is why you won't see my NFL/NCAAF picks early in weeks; I'm always going to wait), it appears every key Philadelphia player is in there. Braves starter Drew Smyly is meh and has a 6.75 ERA vs. the Phillies this year in 9.1 innings. Vincent "don't call me Vega -- Royale with cheese!" Velasquez was very good in his lone 2021 start against Atlanta.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers haven’t lost a game since the All Star break and they are 38-27 since May 8th, good for fifth best in the AL. Willy Peralta has been great, having not allowed more than one run in his last five starts. Kris Bubic has been hit hard lately after starting the season strong. He has allowed four home runs and nine walks in his last three starts. I don’t see a reason not to keep backing the Tigers as they are one of the most profitable teams all season. Take the Tigers at plus money.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the first time in his Yankees career that AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole is a betting underdog (see news feed), so I have to take NYY on the runline simply out of principle because I won't get Cole at +1.5 again. I'd probably take the Yanks on the moneyline if they weren't missing a few injured/COVID guys. While Cole struggled for a bit after the sticky stuff crackdown, he has dominated in his past two. New York should have won Thursday's opener at Fenway, but Aaron Boone for some reason didn't use closer Aroldis Chapman. Presuming he's available here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Indians really need to take advantage of quality starts and squandered one Thursday, using up all their key bullpen members in the process. That puts Cleveland in a tough spot here as its starter tonight, Zach Plesac, is unlikely to be able to work deep into the game. Tampa Bay was victorious in Thursday's series opener, 5-4, in 10 innings. The Rays are 11-0 since Sept. 19, 2020, past the first game of a series coming off a one-run win as a favorite of less than -230.

Rating: 2 Units

 Steven Matz returns to his old stomping grounds in New York tonight to face the Mets and he has been much better on the road at 6-2 with a 3.70 ERA this season. Tylor Megill has now made five starts this season although against only three total teams. He hasn’t faced a lineup nearly as good as the Blue Jays yet and although the Blue Jays lose the DH, they won’t be losing a key player in the lineup. The Mets struggle against lefties, take the Blue Jays with plus money.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies are an excellent home team but no surprise they were routed by the Braves on Thursday because Atlanta had the clear pitching edge. That belongs to Philadelphia on Friday with Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.44). He has a 1.37 ERA in three starts this year vs. the Braves. The Phils rested outfielder Andrew McCutchen and All-Star catcher JT Realmuto on Thursday and both should be back in there. Atlanta starter Max Fried has a 6.43 road ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs will have Kris Bryant back in the lineup -- barring a trade (Nelson Cruz deal burned me Thursday night) -- and closer Craig Kimbrel should be available after he wouldn't have been yesterday. This is Chicago's first home game since the break and the Cubs are simply a different club at Wrigley. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 2.78 ERA in day games this year. I don't take much stock in day of the week trends, but Arizona is a laughable 2-14 in its past 16 Friday games and just horrid on the road. The Snakes are without leading hitter and OBP guy Josh Rojas as well. He's tied for the team lead with a WAR of 2.1. I tend to agree with Justin Perri on the Over and that's a great stat he provided.

Rating: 2 Units

Should Seattle even be a home dog? Consider that starting pitcher Chris Flexen (9-3, 3.35) has a 1.77 ERA in his past seven starts overall and has a 1.76 ERA at T-Mobile Park, the third-best home ERA in the majors among qualified pitchers. The Mariners are 38-21 between Thursday and Sunday this season and way under .500 the other days. Yes, Oakland's Sean Manaea (6-6, 3.28) was brilliant in Seattle earlier this year, but he hasn't won since mid-June and has a 5.29 ERA this month. The Mariners are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter. We'll take the Seattle RL (-135) to be safe.

Rating: 2 Units

Two breaks for the Cardinals here: Kris Bryant, who destroys left-handed pitching, is out again (truly might be traded any minute now) for the Cubs, and stud closer Craig Kimbrel surely isn't available after pitching the past two games. St. Louis blew a ninth-inning lead Wednesday because closer Alex Reyes wasn't available but now should be. It's southpaw Kwang Hyun Kim for the Redbirds, and he brings in a career-best 21.0-inning scoreless streak, which is the longest active of any NL starter. Chicago's Adbert Alzolay is 1-6 with a 4.89 ERA on the road.