Rating: 2 Units

Five days ago, the Rangers’ Kyle Gibson pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball against the Astros and left a 2-2 game. Reliever Joely Rodriguez came in and ruined everything, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Gibson, having a terrific season (2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, an average of 6 innings per start) was matched against Lance McCullers in that game. Tonight the Astros go with 25-year-old Tyler Ivey in his Major League debut. Ivey grew up a Rangers fan living about 15 miles away from where the Rangers play their home games. That’s nice, he’ll have his people in the stands and all that, and perhaps that’s why the Astros targeted this as his first MLB appearance. But they can’t throw pitches for him. After Texas was swept in the four-game series at Houston last week — facing Greinke, McCullers, Garcia and Javier — Ivey has to be considered a cut or two below those guys until he proves otherwise, coming in with unimpressive recent minor league numbers.

Rating: 2 Units

Instead of originally scheduled Kenta Maeda, the Twins are switching to Randy Dobnak, who has pitched only in relief for them so far this season: 14 1/3 innings with a 8.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Uh-oh. Since he doesn’t figure to go deep into the start, and the Twins’ bullpen is lousy, and four relievers pitched in yesterday’s doubleheader in Anaheim, and one reliever (Tyler Duffey) is suspended, and the hitters and fielders could be a little jet-lagged after they played a pair on the West Coast yesterday then flew overnight across as many times zones as is possible within the Continental United States, the team with the second-worst winning percentage in MLB (.349) could have landed in a better situation under better circumstances, ya’ think?

Rating: 4 Units

If their average holds, then the White Sox would go Over this total on their own. They average 8.6 runs per game when the other teams starts a lefty (Montgomery). Of course, they haven’t gotten all these runs against lefty starters. They do pretty well against right-handed relievers, too. The White Sox rank #2 in MLB in runs per game on the road, 5.9. Carlos Rodon has a no-hitter to his credit and is enjoying a nice comeback season but there is a lot of right-handed power in the Yankees lineup for this lefty to tap-dance around.

Rating: 4 Units

With no DH, the Orioles, who have dipped to an average of only 3.91 runs per game, must face Steven Strasburg in his first start off the injured list. The last time Strasburg pitched fresh, he went 6 innings and allowed 1 hit to Atlanta. Good luck… some other time. The Orioles are visiting an opponent who is also in the Sub-4 Runs Per Game Club (3.85) and before the Nationals hitters figure out Jorge Lopez, he could be outta there.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

We’ve been through this drill before but let’s lay out the details never the less: The AL Central -leading White Sox arrive in New York with the best batting average against left-handed pitching (.297), the highest On base Percentage (.376) and the best Slugging Percentage (.486). They’ve had only 296 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to 693 for the Houston Astros. While it may seem like a sample too short to be serious, it’s an extension of last season when they were 14-0 when the opponent started a lefty. They are 9-2 in that scenario this season, averaging 8.6 runs per game when the other side starts a lefty. The Yankees comply with Chicago’s “go” situation, serving up Jordan Montgomery. Throw out his stats. The White Sox’ Carlos Rodon won’t be pitching a no-hitter like he did in April but he is enjoying a resurgence. The team is 5-1 when he starts. He last faced the Yankees in 2019, at Yankee Stadium, winning a 6-2 game in which he pitched 6 innings and allowed 3 hits.

Rating:  2 Untis

The Red Sox evened the series with a 7-3 win over Ross Stripling, and they are nicely poised to prevail in tonight's rubber match. Nick Pivetta has led Boston to wins in 7 of his 8 appearances (+$690 with an ERA on 3.16). The Red Sox are now 9-5 vs. lefthanders (+$250) and they've been a big money-maker outside of Fenway Park (+$825). Steven Matz has been inconsistent (4.29 ERA) so we'll take the underdog price on the visitor.

Rating: 2 Units

They’re making the Twins work hard for their money. After a whole lotta games against first-place Oakland and Chicago White Sox, they have to fly all the way out to Los Angeles from Minneapolis to play two games today against the Angels, before they fly back to Cleveland to start a weekend series tomorrow. Jose Berrios is slated to start Game 2 for them and he may be able to bail them out, but young Aussie Lewis Thorpe is the scheduled starter here, with that lousy bullpen behind him. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli could have saved our boy Matt Shoemaker for a start against the Angels, his former team, with that extra motivational edge. But no, he used him yesterday. it was just another move he could have made but didn’t, in defeat. And he’s made a lot of moves, in defeat. Quite often, a team that is dropping in class after losing many games to higher-placed foes will “wake up.” But that’s usually when they’re home. And the Angels are in the same boat, having lost a ton of games recently to legitimate contenders Tampa Bay, the Dodgers, Houston, Boston and Cleveland — 12 of their last 17, to be exact. Alex (“I’ve a Blister on My Finger!”) Cobb returns from the Injured List. No Mike Trout but they weren’t exactly a powerhouse with him and the Twins find ways to lose.

Rating: 4 Units MLB Play of the Day

The Astros are hitting .284 vs. left-handed pitching, third highest in MLB with the third highest OPS. Oakland lefty Cole Irvin has been pitching well lately, getting his ERA down from 7.45 after two starts to 3.02 entering this game. However, the 7.45 after two starts was totally against the Astros’ lineup, against whom he totaled 9 2/3 innings while giving up 8 runs and 12 hits, whiffing only 5. So, good luck to him… some other time, of course. The Astros are awaiting the return of Framber Valdez to their rotation and until then, they must make do with a guy like second-season spot starter Luis Garcia in the rotation. He’s been doing fine but he is only 47 1/3 innings into his Major League career.

Rating: 2 Units

There has been a 12-14 mph breeze blowing out to left field at Wrigley Field and the nervous linemaker overreacted yesterday, making a rather high number of 9 for last night’s match-up between classy, veteran righthanders, Max Scherzer and Jake Arrieta. The teams combined for only 7 runs. Today, in full daylight, ‘The Man’ adds only 1 run to his Total as the starters change to non-classy, younger righthanders Joe Ross (Ooh! Ooh!) and Trevor Williams. Ross didn’t play last season and before that, going back three seasons, had ERA/WHIPs of 5.48/1.67, 5.06/1.31, 5.01/1.47. The Nationals allowed him to return to them despite this display of below-averageness, and he is giving them more of the same: 5.80/1.46. Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo are thinking, ‘Gee, wish we coulda faced this guy last year!’ as they carry .500, .500 and .417 Batting Average Against Ross into today’s game, in limited opportunities of course (6, 4, 12 at-bats). Meanwhile, the one-year contract of Chicago’s Trevor Williams is proving to be one of the worst $2.5 million investments in the history of mankind, with his 6.27 ERA and 1.82 WHIP after 8 starts, in which he has pitched a total of only 33 innings (that’s an average of 4 innings per start). And they charge people money to get through the gates to watch him.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs beat the Nats again last night, but the visitor has its best chance for a victory this evening with staff ace Max Scherzer on the mound. The veteran is off to a fantastic start in 2021 (2.10 ERA in eight appearances) and he'll be taking on a Chicago team that is only 10-17 vs. righthanders (-$715, averaging just 3.7 runs per game). Jake Arrieta has not looked sharp in recent outings (8.68 ERA last two) so we'll take the road favorite tonight.

Rating: 4 Units

The Blue Jays held up their end of the bargain last night with 8 runs in their home park, where they’d entered averaging 6.14. But the Red Sox ran into a buzzsaw. Some of them had handled Hyun-Jin Ryu in the past. But last night, they did not. Running into Ross Stripling can hopefully offset last night’s blanking. Stripling has yet to show that switching from the National League to the American will be good for him, with a 5.91 ERA and 1.69 WHIP so far, only 21 1/3 IP from five starts. Last season he pitched 15 2/3 innings for Toronto after getting traded to them, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Not lookin’ good for the guy.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins have won 5 of 8 Trevor Rogers starts and the lefty has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in seven of his eight, plus one in which he allowed 6 hits and 0 runs in a 6-0 win. He enters tonight’s game with a 1.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Full disclosure: Rogers faced the Phillies one time as a rookie last season. He struck out five of the first seven batters, but then gave up 9 runs on 9 hits in his 3 innings. Young pitchers tend to make their biggest improvement in their second season and Rogers has certainly been on that path. Do the Phillies own him after that one try, or was it simply one of those days, which has since been followed by good ones? The Marlins have won four of Rogers’ last five starts, the only loss coming when he hooked Max Scherzer. Zach Eflin is not Max Scherzer and has allowed more hits than innings pitched in four of his last five starts.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles have only 8 hits in 60 at-bats against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. The guys with the most at-bats against him — Trey Mancini and Pedro Severino — are hitting .143 and .167 against him. The Rays’ pen is the Ray’s pen — reliable. Baltimore starter John Means has been consistently good. Some guys follow up no-hitters by giving up 5 runs in 5 innings and losing. He followed up on his with 6 innings of shutout ball at the Mets. They’re giving him eight days in between starts just to be cautious with a guy they consider a #1 starter, who has three seasons remaining before he can be a free agent. His ERA is 1.21, his WHIP 0.71. He is striking out more than 1 batter per inning. The Rays strike out a lot. He beat them 2-1 here last September.

Rating: 2 Units

The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins, with his 6.62 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his first seven starts for them. They tried to sneak him past us in the only early afternoon game on this beautiful day. Ah, nice try. His presence seems like a good reason to be on the other side. The guy can only pitch well against the Tigers. Who they playin’? Not the Tigers. Although the AL Central leading White Sox identity has been to hammer the heck out of left-handed starters into submission to the point where everybody and his brother knows about it, and Shoemaker throws with his right, last-place AL Central Minnesota has lost every game started by Shoemaker except his two against Detroit. The five losing scores of those games were 6-1, 11-3, 6-2, 7-0, 8-6.

Rating: 3 Units

The Blue Jays are averaging 6.14 runs per game in their ‘home’ ballpark in Florida, and 9.43 hits per game. Both numbers are #1 in the American League. The Red Sox are averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road, #7 in MLB away from home. Toronto starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has a good reputation and good numbers after 7 starts, like his 2.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. But only one of his seven starts has been in this ballpark! And the Red Sox Bogaerts, Chavis, Martinez and Plawecki are hitting .400, .333, .308 and .400 against him. Meanwhile, Toronto’s Teoscar Hernandez should just put a leash around Eduardo Rodriguez and take him home as a pet: 5-for-14 (.357) with 3 home runs.

Rating: 2 Units

Although Undecided can really come through sometimes, for the Mets tonight he or she will have to overcome the absence of Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Brandon Nimmo from the lineup and although nothing has been said about him yet, it’s hard to believe that Kevin Pillar will be able to play after getting hit by a fastball in a bad, bloody spot last night.  Mets thought that new ownership was their key to preventing injuries, a very Metsie way to be thinking. It isn’t. If they were the Padres, who played without four regulars in their lineup over the weekend, then they would sweep this series with outstanding pitching after overcoming the injuries to win 3-1 last night. But they are the Mets. Their pitching staff was already hit with injuries to Degrom and Syndergaard, who are on on the Injured list. Taijuan Walker seems set to join them after walking off the mound in the fourth inning of a 0-0 game last night, in which they burned possible-but-not-now spot starter Sean Reid-Foley for 3 hitless innings after Walker left. Braves lefthander Tucker Davidson is no sure thing but…

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day

Oh, it would so easy to believe that the Giants’ righthander Anthony DeSclafani — allowed to walk in free agency by Cincinnati after five seasons with the Reds — would come back to Great American Ballpark with an “I’ll show you SOBs what you’re missing!” kind of performance and shut down his former teammates with a vengeance. DeSclafani’s first eight starts with the Giants have produced All-Star quality numbers: 2.14 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 41-11 K-BB in 46 1/3 innings. But he was never a dominant pitcher in this ballpark, in part because he isn’t as effective against left-handed hitters, and also because GAP is kind to left-handed hitters. The lefty batters on the Reds are currently hitting .273 (#3 in the category) with a .818 OPS (#2). They’ve hit 28 home runs in 587 at-bats, which is third most total homers by lefties. (For favorable comparison, Arizona and these Giants have 30 homers apiece by lefthanded batters, in 613 and 893 at-bats by them.) We can’t, with good conscience, accept Luis Castillo as a side play against DeSclafani. He’s been too horrible (7.71 ERA, 1.79 WHIP), including on April 13 in San Francisco when, staked to a 4-0 first-inning lead, he gave up two home runs in the bottom of the first to lefties Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Crawford to make it 4-4 with eight innings still to play! But we can combine the potential power of DeSclafani and Castillo into an attack on the Total

Rating: 3 Units

The Rockies have played only 16 road games, fewest in what you call your Major League Baseball. They’re already 9.5 games out of first place in the NL West with the worst record in the National League, so having the most road games remaining means more misery following a 2-14 record in their first 16 road games. Away from Coors Field, they are hitting .224, which is actually not the worst road average in MLB. It’s #19. But their 9 home runs on the road is far and ‘away’ the fewest in that category, way behind the next-fewest, Detroit (17), who’s played three more road games. Yu Darvish has ace-like numbers after 8 starts” 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP. He went 4 of the 7 innings vs. Colorado last week in one of their double-header games, allowing just 2 hits and 1 run. Since a lousy opening day start, here’s how many runs Darvish has allowed before giving way to the NL’s best bullpen: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0. Jon Gray started that game against Darvish last week and gave up only 3 hits in 5 2/3 innings. He has a 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. The Padres are still missing 4/8ths of their regular batting order not counting the pitcher, although you wouldn’t have noticed by the way the Cardinals pitchers flopped their way around the Petco mound over the weekend.

Rating: 2 Units

Normally, we’d pass on this match-up after the White Sox rocked JA Happ five days ago in Chicago. The reason? On a six-day turnaround the other day — an in plenty of situations past in quick re-hooks involving other teams and other starters — lefty Mike Minor of the Royals made a quick improvement to help beat Chicago after they’d pounded him in his prior start. But the Royals were +175 in that game. Tonight the Twins — still with the worst record in Major League Baseball — are near even-money. That seems to be worth the target-against effort when the White Sox hit lefties as well as they do: MLB-highs .293 batting average and .853 OPS. They average 7.9 runs when the opponent starts a lefty. They got 9 runs and 9 hits in 3 1/3 innings against Happ last week in a 13-8 win. White Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel didn’t exactly distinguish himself with the big lead, but like we said yesterday before it played out in the ninth inning for an Oakland win against the Twins, the Minnesota bullpen is always in position to be your friend when you’re on the other side.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds are still averaging a MLB-high 6.88 runs per game at Great American Ballpark. Say, if they hit their average, they’ll provide 86% of this total! They can’t score 6.88 exactly, but we’ll settle for 6 or 7. They return home after sparing veteran righty Sonny Gray the agony of pitching in Coors Field, where they burned through the entire lousy bullpen to salvage a split of their four-game series. Gray went 4 1/3 innings in his last start, allowing 1 run. But 7 hits! And 4 1/3 innings is not enough with a bullpen like Cincinnati’s, whose ERA is 5.08. Gray’s WHIP of 1.46 hasn’t been this high since 2018 when he was struggling with the Yankees.

Rating: 2 Units

We can’t seem to stay away from this series. After winning two of the three overall selections, we’ll try to make it three outta four with ace Shane Bieber on the mound for the visiting Indians. Once again, we point out that these two teams are averaging the fewest hits per game in Major League Baseball. Hard to score a lot of runs with so few hits! Therefore, the Mariners wouldn’t figure to do any better than their measly average against a guy like Bieber, who enters with a 2.95 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, nice and angried up following two outings in which he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings to the Royals and White Sox each time. The world is divided into two types of people: those who think Bieber is washed up, injured, finished after those two outings, and those who think he’s due for 7 innings of 3-hit, shutout ball with 13 strikeouts and 1 BB, followed by the best pen in MLB.

Rating: 4 Units

The Reds’ Jeff Hoffman lasted five seasons with the Rockies. Although he didn’t really distinguish himself, the fact that they kept him around from 2016 through 2020 suggests that they thought he could pitch well enough in Coors Field to represent them. Except, that wasn’t the case! His home ERA last year was 13.11. His home ERA in 2019 was 6.33. His home ERA in 2018 was 10.13. His home ERA in 2017 was 7.45. So why, why, why did they keep him around? Must have been a good ‘clubhouse guy,’ who knows? Therefore, we won’t expect a triumphant return. The bullpen behind him is not good. Neither is the bullpen behind Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies, who had bad starts in three of his last four and against whom the Reds he’s faced are 8-for-18 with 10 RBI, 1-3 K-BB.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers lost for the 8th time in their last 11 games yesterday (-$640), and they are on the verge of a sweep by Atlanta. Huscar Ynoa has been the ace of the Atlanta rotation (+$275, 2.29 ERA in seven starts) and the Brewers are averaging just 3.6 runs per game on offense. Freddy Peralta has been a mixed bag so far (4.09 ERA) and Atlanta has averaged close to 5.0 runs per game against righties. Easy call on the visitor vs. a slumping home team in today's series finale.

MLB Play of the Day

A’s righthander Chris Bassitt did right for us in Boston earlier in the week when he pitched 7 innings of 3-hit, 2-run, 10-0 K-BB ball in victory. So we’ll go back-to-back Bassitt today. Neither Kenta Maeda nor the Twins have done right for many people so far in the 2021 season, with Minnesota living in Detroit-ville among American League Central teams, having won a mere .351 percent of their games, fewest wins in Major League Baseball (13). Last-place vs. first, and last is favored. Maeda has a 5.08 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Last year those numbers were 2.70 and 0.75, so this season’s numbers are almost doubled! In the event that Maeda rediscovers his old form, there is always the Minnesota bullpen to account for, inventing ways to lose in late innings.

Rating: 2 Units

Marcus Stroman to avoid being swept in Tampa. Sounds good, on the surface. But Stroman is discovering what it’s like to live life in Metsie-like existence, not getting  run support when pitching well and not pitching well when getting run support. The Mets entered this ballpark, located in Yankee territory, on a seven game winning streak that had coincided with the firing of their two batting coaches. So, everyone figured that must have been the reason why they weren’t doing as well as expected. But the real reason is that great expectations and the Mets are usually mutually exclusive. The logical conclusion to having swept Arizona and Baltimore at Citi Field is to get swept on the road by the Rays by decent lefty Josh Fleming and the usual good bullpen brigade.

Rating: 4 Units

Jose Quintana’s last start, 4 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball vs. the Dodgers in a 2-1 Angels win, could be interpreted as a sign that he’s back to being the good Jose Quintana. We’ll figure it as having been the calm before the storm. He walked 5 in those 4 innings and was lucky to get out alive. So seven days later, a lefty that’s barely hanging on with a 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, throws in Fenway Park against a lineup with the third highest Batting Average vs. lefties in what you call your Major League Baseball, .283. Meanwhile, the Angels’ Phil Gosselin, Juan Lagares, Mike Trout have averages of .400, .625 and .400 against Nathan Eovaldi.

Rating: 2 Units

Justus Sheffield has been alternating good and bad starts and comes off a bad one against a Rangers’ lineup that has hit lefties well this season. The Indians have not hit lefties well (.188 team Batting Average vs. left-handed pitchers) and they’ve never faced Sheffield at the Major League level. In his home ballpark, Sheffield has been much more effective. Opposing hitters have a .218 BA against him here, compared to .352 on the road. Indians’ starter Tristan McKenzie is doing okay but the team has lost four of his six starts and he has walked 8 batters in the last two, which totaled only 7 innings.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The Padres are missing regulars Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Eric Hosmer from their lineup. They must have worked their rosary beads before last night’s 5-4 win vs. St. Louis because without those bats in the lineup, they got three walks and a hit batter in the third inning to get 2 of their eventual 5 runs, which were scored with only 4 total hits. Last night’s Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo should be sent to the minors forever and subjected to repeated taunting for not taking advantage of the situation and just throwing the ball over the plate, daring the subs in a lineup that had been scoring only 4.08 runs per game with all those currently absent guys in it to hit the damn ball. The rest of the Cardinals’ pitchers who were called upon last night should be docked a week’s pay for contributing to the team total of 12 walks allowed. Unbelievable, really. But tonight’s starter, Adam Wainwright, is a crafty old pro who probably won’t make the same mistakes when the prevailing situation is so much in favor of the Cardinals. The Padres’ Chris Paddack is no slouch but he has stagnated from his 2019 rookie season when he had a 0.98 WHIP. The club is 5-8 in his starts since the beginning of 2020 and his ERA/WHIP right now are 4.78/1.41.

Rating: 4 Units

With a 5:40 pm, Pacific Time start there figures to be some shadowy things going on in the middle to later innings at Petco Park, which is already a pitcher’s ballpark and should be more so this evening because those danged shadows do nothing good for hitters. Chris Paddack is a fine, young pitcher backed by the National League’s stingiest bullpen. The Padres will be without four regulars in the lineup, due to the new national fear. Although last night’s game went Over the Total (5-4) despite the absences of Fernando Tatis, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar, the Cardinals pitching staff chose last night to walk 12 batters. The Padres got only 4 hits.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies coasted to an easy 5-1 victory in last night's series opener, winning for the 8th time in their last 11 (+$630). Tonight they face a less less impressive left-hander (Anthony Kay 9.82 ERA in two outings) with staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound (3.59 ERA in eight starts). The Phillies are available at a very reasonable price and are poised to take 1st place in the NL East. Look for the visitor to make it two in a row.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals are making a human sacrifice out of veteran lefty Mike Minor. They send him out there against the team that has been on a crusade of destruction against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season only 6 days after he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings against them in Kansas City in a 9-3 loss. Minor’s current ERA/WHIP are 5.75/1.31. Sure, Chicago starter Carlos Rodon is enjoying a resurgent season with a 5-0 record, 0.58 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in five starts, most recently 6 innings of shutout ball vs. these Royals. But — but-but-but — those numbers are unsustainable and even if he has another blanking in him, this is a situation where you’re not gonna be surprised if the White Sox exceed the Total on their own because they average 8.7 runs per game when the opponent starts a lefty.

Rating: 2 Units

We came for the Side and Total last night, too much. We’ll stay, but for only the Total tonight after the two least-hitting MLB offenses combined for only 8 hits, 6 runs in Thursday’s Under. In recent seasons, the Indians’ organization has said, ‘No big contract for you!’ to Trevor Bauer, and ‘Same to you!’ to Mike Clevinger. Both had the word “ace” in front of their names. But the franchise pretty much knew what was waiting in the wings with last night’s starter, Zach (I Shall Pitch 8 Innings of Two-Hit Ball for the Under) Plesac and tonight’s, Aaron Civale. A mystery to the Mariners, who average the fewest hits per game against pitchers they’ve seen before, Civale’s current ERA and WHIP are 2.91 and 1.04. Chris isn’t Flexen his muscles much so far for Seattle (3.43 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) but as noted yesterday, the offenses average about 6.5 hits per game each.

Rating: 2 Units

See how nicely we link one selection into the next? Veteran lefty Wade Miley of the Reds is the guy who threw the no-hitter against the Indians in his last start, the day after the Cleveland had swept the four games at Kansas City. His curveball and slider were moving all over the place that night. They have to. His fastball has topped the radar gun at only 89.5 mph this season. But when a pitcher is throwing in Coors Field, the very different atmospheric conditions prevent the ball from breaking as much as it normally would. Miley normally lasts 5 innings in his starts, 6 innings tops. But he went the full 9 against Cleveland, throwing 114 pitches. With a lesser breaking ball and sub-par fastball, he’ll be lucky to last 3 innings tonight. German Marquez’s overall numbers do not impress. But three bad starts (mixed with five good to “just fine” outings) have played a big part in creating the 5.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP that we feel are enroute to being lowered.

Rating: 4 Units

You better believe we’re going right back to Coors Field on the Over side with this match-up after they scored 21 runs for us last night. Wade Miley is coming off a no-hitter. When a journeyman like Miley pitches a no-hitter, how can you not expect him to give up 6 runs in less than 5 innings next time out? Miley relies on curves and sliders that move a lot. In the Coors Field air, pitchers don’t get the kind of movement they need on those pitches. That’s why Coors Field scores are so high, and that’s why Miley, who has pitched for about 29 major league teams, more than likely will never be extended a contract by the Rockies. Meanwhile, German Marquez has been a disappointment with a 5.65 ERA and the Reds can hit.

Rating: 4 Units

Matt Shoemaker does great against Detroit, the run-scoring team in what you call your Major League Baseball. Against most other teams, not so good. The former Angel meets a familiar foe tonight as the A’s hit town hot off a sweep in Fenway Park. Bang-zoom, we say. He’s already lost 7-0 and 8-6 games to Oakland and Seattle, two of the teams who chased him out of the AL West so that Minnesota would throw him a bone. Aren’t the A’s happy to meet up with him tonight as they have a nice, fat .905 OPS against Shoemaker from 98 at-bats? After Shoemaker, the Twins bullpen has guys ready to be as detrimental to their team as Shoemaker. Meanwhile, Oakland’s Frankie Montas: 5.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. This is on the heels of a 2020 season in which those numbers were 5.60, 1.51. We’re on a track here, Frankie, and it’s a less than ordinary one.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

This is similar to Cleveland’s four-game sweep of Kansas City recently that was followed the next day by a shutout, no-hitter loss at Cincinnati. Tonight we have the Tigers hosting the Cubs after they, too, swept their AL Central division rival, Kansas City, in a three-game series completed yesterday. The Tigers are now thinking who the heck they are, forgetting that they actually are 13-24 with the worst run differential in MLB, -64. While sweeping the poor Royals, current losers of 11 straight, the Detroit bullpen managed several miraculous escapes from self-inflicted damage, living up to its MLB worst ERA (6.55) and WHIP (1.75). Tonight they ask a lefty with a 1-9 career W/L record, and a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after five starts this season, to hold down the Cubs before the bullpen comes in and inevitably gives up runs. Tarik Skubal has appeared in a total of seven games for the Tigers this season and they have lost all seven. The Cubs are only 4-11 on the road but this is the first time they play a road game against a last-place team with a -64 run differential, right? Right.

Rating: 2 Units

A double-shot of love, or like, or just gut-feel on tonight’s match-up between the Indians and Mariners in Seattle for several reasons. The Mariners average the fewest hits per game in Major League Baseball. They’re only getting 6.46 hits per game. Hard to score a lot of runs getting less than 7 hits per game. But the Indians are right behind them, or ahead of them, or however you want to look at it, #29 in hits per game at 6.82. Tonight is the MLB debut of Seattle righthander Logan Gilbert. He was their #1 draft choice in 2018 and has zipped through the minor leagues with a 5.5 to 1 K-BB ratio and ERA barely above 2.00. He threw 2 innings against the Angels in a March exhibition game and struck out Mike Trout and three others. He would have been with the team from opening day but the Mariners could save money on contracts by waiting until now to bring in some rookies. Who can blame them? It’s their team, their money. The team president got fired for admitting as much, which is one of the problems with the world today. These ballplayers make enough money. The team that pays it should be able to do what it wants to do, say what it wants to say about it. Anyway, Zach Plesac is making the Indians look smart for not wanting to pay the big money to that whiny righthander guy on the Dodgers and the other righty who’s injured on the Padres. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 31-7 K-BB, the Mariners have never faced him, and the best bullpen around for after he’s done.

Rating: 4 Units

The Mariners seem to have picked a good spot for the Major League debut of Logan Gilbert, their #1 pick in the 2018 draft. He has wowed ‘em in the minors following the requisite Tommy John surgery, and made a quickie appearance in spring training fanning four Angels in two innings. Did they start him in Dodger Stadium against the Dodgers? Of course not! They’re starting him against a lighter-hitting team in their own, larger, pitcher-friendly ballpark. Where they’ll have trouble separating on the scoreboard because they don’t hit much and Zach Plesac — who they’ve never faced — is pitching pretty well for the Indians. He hasn’t allowed a run to the Reds or White Sox in his last two starts, a 3-0 loss and 5-0 win.

Rating: 4 Units

The Rockies played a doubleheader yesterday against an opponent with the National League’s best bullpen, who started All-Star and Cy Young-quality guys Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Also, the Padres had key hitters out because of the ol’ Virus Thing. It was a depleted lineup, with Fernando Tatis the most noteworthy absence. Tonight, after working through the bullpen in a doubleheader, they ask Chi-Chi Gonzalez to give them some innings against a heavier hitting lineup averaging 5.24 runs per game. The Reds are averaging only 3.59 runs per game on the road but ah, they haven’t played a game in Coors Field yet, or faced Chi-Chi, against whom opposing hitters often Cha-Cha around the basepaths. Their own starter, Luis Castillo, hasn’t been pitching like the guy everyone knew the last two seasons. He has a 1.63 WHIP and 6.42 ERA. Usually, pitching in Coors Field isn’t going to help a guy who’s going like that. Both of these bullpen can take a 7-0 lead and turn it into a 7-6 game faster than you can say, ‘Rob Dibble!’

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox drubbed the fading Twins again last night, and they will send another effective pitcher in today's series finale. Lance Lynn has a stellar 1.52 ERA in five starts this year, and he should fare well against a Minnesota team that is only 7-14 (-$1420) in day games. Chicago is on top in the AL Central and riding a five game winning streak. Great price on the hot road team today at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Rating: 3 Units

Good things tend to happen when Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals. We keep saying he’ll be a -160 or greater pitcher as a matter of routine, and yet here is as underdog pitching for the team with the second best record in MLB at the moment. A bit counterintuitive on the part of ‘The Man’ to make a team 7-0 with this pitcher starting, with baseball’s second-best record and better overall hitting than the home team, the underdog. Flaherty has a 2.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 42-11 K-BB in 41 1/3 IP. Corbin Burnes’ numbers are better. But he hasn’t started since April 26 and the Brewers are only 2-3 when he starts because, as we said, they don’t hit as well as the Cardinals. They’ve lost 8-0, 3-1 and 2-0 games started by Burnes, the 3-1 loss at St. Louis when he was opposed by Adam Wainwright.

Rating: 2 Units

Quick — what Major League Baseball team has been the most profitable on a flat-bet, game-by-game basis this season? If you guessed the Texas Rangers, then you guessed correctly. You’ll recall, of course, that the Rangers were pretty much death to backers in 2020 with MLB’s second-worst Won-Loss record and the absolute worst Run Differential of -88, scoring an average of only 3.73 runs per game. Because so many people expect last season to be duplicated the next, you instead have the Rangers at 18-18, only 3 games out of first place in the AL West, reaping rewards for their backers via generous underdog odds with help from an offense generating 4.39 runs per game, more than a half-run more than last year. It’s been a while since anybody on the Giants has faced Kyle Gibson. Those who have combine for a mere .208 On-Base Percentage against him, earned when he wasn’t pitching as well as he has been lately: six straight quality starts totaling 33 IP, with only 3 ER allowed in that span. Lefty Alex Wood has given the Giants four fine starts, t’is true. But the Rangers have found ways to be 12-4 when the other side starts a lefty and in limited exposure to Wood (21 at-bats) they have 9 hits including 3 doubles and a homer.

Rating: 4 Units

The Red Sox have MLB’s #1 On-Base plus Slugging Percentage (a stat known as “OPS”). It’s .778, for those of you scoring at home. (Dodgers are #2 at .748.) Their On-Base percentage against tonight’s Orioles’ starter, Jorge Lopez, is .364. Their Slugging Percentage against him is .665. Add those two up for a Red Sox OPS of 1.029 against Lopez, considerably higher than their current MLB-best number, and it seems like Lopez can be pinata-like for the visiting bats. Which is a good thing for Boston because their starter, Martin Perez, has yet to earn a W in six starts and the Orioles’ On-Base and Slugging Percentages against him are .419 and .672, which adds up to a higher OPS than Boston vs. Lopez: 1.092. Yay-hoo.

Rating: 5 Units

The Phillies posted a 12-2 victory on Friday before the Braves rallied for four runs in the 12th inning for a stunning 8-7 win on Saturday. Philadelphia is 5-3 against Atlanta this season. Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.89 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta right-hander Huascar Ynoa (3-1, 2.36). Nola has faced the Braves once this season. The right-hander received a no-decision after allowing two runs on six hits and six strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings on April 1. He has made 21 career starts against Atlanta, going 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

Padres bullpen days are as good as most of the best teams’ bullpen days. Lefty Ryan Weathers is a candidate and he could go anywhere from 3 to 5 2/3 innings based on recent appearances. Starter Dinelson Lamet is another possibility. He got hurt recently but returned to pitch two relief innings earlier in the week. Behind these two shorties is a bullpen with a National League-low 2.80 ERA, and third-lowest WHIP of 1.12. Giants’ 35-year-old Johnny Cueto hasn’t pitched for real in 3.5 weeks after suffering an in-game (sixth inning) lat strain while he was pitching very well against the Reds. Cueto started three games against the Padres last season and San Diego scored 6, 6, 7 runs in them. The Giants won one of them, but in order to do it they had to overcome the 4 runs that Cueto allowed in 3 2/3 innings.

Rating: 4 Units

The wind is blowing in from left field at Wrigley Field today. The Man sees that and gets cute with a low Total, thinking, ‘Hey, nobody will hit any home runs.’ But he apparently has forgotten that Kyle Hendricks is a low-ball pitcher and doesn’t give up many home runs anyway, and that the Pirates can just put the bat on the ball in the freezing cold and bang out some ground ball hits, with a few errors on both sides, combined with the Cubs averaging more than 7 runs per game when the other side starts a lefthander. The Pirates’ lefthander Tyler Williams gave up 10 hits to the Cubs in Pittsburgh on Apr. 8 and five Cubbies are hitting between .300 and .750 against him.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals are surging (8-2, +$605 last 10 days) as they go for a sweep in today's series finale. The Rockies are wallowing in last place with a dreadful 8-17 record vs. right-handers (-$770), and starter German Marquez has not had any success so far in 2021 (6.21 ERA in his seven outings so far). Veteran Adam Wainwright is available at a reasonable price, so stick with the hot home team today at Busch Stadium.

Rating: 2 Units

As noted yesterday, and before that, the White Sox have made a habit of devouring left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. That Royals rookie was fresh meat on their table last night, worth 8 runs in the first inning. Yowser. Mike Minor is certainly a much more experienced, crafty lefthander than young Daniel Lynch, who may never recover from last night’s shelling. But after going 12-8 and 14-10 in 2018 and 2019 for Texas, Minor was 0-5 with a 5.48 ERA for them last season before being traded to Oakland, where he was a spot reliever. So far he has a 5.23 ERA and 1.32 ERA for the Royals after six starts. Yawn. He exits three starts against the light-hitting Tigers, Pirates, Indians and his new team has now lost seven straight. But after being shut out twice in a row, then getting only 1 run last night, the Royals are due for better against Lucas Giolito, whose no-hitter form from last season gets farther in the rear-view. Seven different Royals have homered 8 times against Giolito in 132 at-bats.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

The Marlins have a +21 Run Differential but are in fourth place in the NL East. The other four teams in the division have negative run differentials. What’s up with that? Danged if we know. But we do know that Sandy Alcantara, their starter, has a 2.95 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 42-12 K-BB in 42 2/3 innings and that he beat the Brewers 6-2 with 7 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball on Apr. 28 in Milwaukee. Like the Giants with Cueto below, Milwaukee is bringing a relatively old guy, Brett Anderson, off the injured list. He lasted 1/3 of an inning against the Cubs on April 24 before straining his hamstring. 60-year-olds could probably last longer out there without injuring themselves than some of these 30-something MLB pitchers. The Brewers had lost 6 in a row before yesterday’s win here, when the 6 runs they got matched their highest single-game output since May 1. They haven’t scored more than 6 in a game since Moby Dick was a minnow (actually, since beating the Pirates 7-1 on April 17). The fine Milwaukee bullpen has a match in Miami’s, which owns a NL-best 1.01 WHIP.

Rating: 2 Units

Off six innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball vs. the offensively suspect  Brewers, Vince Velasquez seems destined for one of his 4-inning stints of giving up 6 hits and 4 runs. He’s allowed 5 home runs in his last 3 starts. The Braves can’t hit lefties very well but unless Velasquez has learned to throw with his left arm within the last five days, he’ll be throwing right-handed to an Atlanta lineup where Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Pablo Sandoval and Dansby Swanson are all hitting between .300 and .345 against him. Although Atlanta’s Ian Anderson recently duplicated his playoff-game whiz start against the Dodgers when he 1-hit the Cubs over 7 innings, he’s allowed 3 or 4 runs in three of his five starts, including to these Phillies on April 10 (5 hits, 4 runs, 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings). Neither bullpen sports a crack brigade of volunteer or professional firemen.

Rating: 2 Units

Royals’ rookie lefthander Daniel Lynch had a very promising Major League debut earlier this week vs. Cleveland. But promising doesn’t butter the biscuit. He pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowed 4 hits and 3 runs. He walked 4 and struck out 3. Cleveland struggles to hit .200 against left-handed pitching. Today he gets thrown to the wolves against a White Sox lineup that has devoured left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season and is hitting .300 against it this season. The Royals began the week in first place. They had big dreams. Now they’ve lost six in a row to three different teams in their division who aren’t last-place Detroit. They haven’t scored a run in two games and are asking a rookie to hold down this lineup in what has been a bad match-up for many a lefthander, when Lance Lynn (innings-eating stalwart with a 1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is pitching against them. Seems like an unreasonable request. Lynn pitched a complete-game shutout against KC on April 8.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Uh-oh! Steven Matz may be back. The guy who showed up in Matz’ uniform for his first four starts as a member of the Blue Jays looked a lot better than the guy who pitched for the Mets the last few seasons. The new guy
won four straight games and lasted between 5 and 6 1/3 innings and allowed only 1 run in each of his first three starts. But the National League Matz showed up on Apr. 28 and May 3 vs. Washington (oh, his nemesis, for sure!) and then at Oakland: 8 hits and 6 runs allowed in 3 2/3 innings, then 7 hits and 5 runs allowed in 5 innings. A Joe Hardy-like pact with the devil may have been terminated early here. The Astros have won four of five starts made by Cristian Javier, who has a 1.76 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, 30-8 K-BB in 25 2/3 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs are riding a four game win streak at the moment, but they could be vulnerable to the underdog Pirates today. Pittsburgh has a profitable record in day games away from PNC Park (+$575) and Trevor Williams has pitched poorly for Chicago thus far (6.00 ERA his six outings). The Cubs are only 9-15 vs. righties in 2021 (-$565, 3.7 runs per game) so take a shot with the visiting underdog this afternoon.

Rating: 2 Units

The unwritten rule in baseball says that after a team concludes a four-game road sweep of a division rival, to vault into sole possession of first place over that rival in their division, you go against it as it changes venues for the next game, especially when it’s an Interleague game. Never seen that rule? Well, we said it’s unwritten. But now we just wrote it. It’s as close as it gets to a “letdown” theory for baseball, something that often gets applied in football and basketball. In only 29 at-bats against him, Reds batters have hit 5 home runs against Indians starter Zach Plesac. Wade Miley of the Reds is no prize, but sometimes ya’ gotta bite the bullet and go with your gut.

Rating: 2 Units

The only team that Minnesota’s long, black-bearded mediocrity, Matt Shoemaker, pitches well against is the Tigers. He’s from the Detroit area. He must be angry at them for not drafting him. He went 6 innings against them at Detroit on April 5, giving up only 3 hits and 1 run. They’re 7-for-58 against him lifetime. But the Twins have lost his 5 starts since, and Shoemaker’s ERA and WHIP are 7.83 and 1.57. Even if he pitches his usual gem, note the score of his April 5 win vs. the Tigers: 15-6. These bullpens are horrible. Minnesota’s can’t strike anybody out and the closer they coveted, Alex Colome, has a 6.17 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Way to go, buddy. Meanwhile, the Tigers have lost all six games in which Tarik Skubal has appeared. His starts have not lasted longer than 5 innings and have mostly been shorter than that. HIs ERA and WHIP are 6.14 and 1.68, and the Tigers’ bullpen that figures to be used for at least half the game has the MLB-high ERA and WHIPs of 6.61 and 1.72.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Rating:  2 Units

The Braves insist on putting Drew Smyly out there. Since signing him for one year at $1 million, they are 0-4 in Smyly’s starts that have totaled 19 innings, and
Smyly himself has a frown-inducing ERA of 8.05 and WHIP of 1.53. He’s a lefty. Probably not as good a lefty as Max Fried, who the Nats lost to yesterday. Washington is still batting .300 against lefties after last night, tied with the Chicago White Sox for best average in that category. What we hope is a happy coincidence is that as lefty Jon Lester takes the mound for the Nationals in his second start of the season following a terrific first outing, the Braves are on the opposite end of the “Vs. Lefties” spectrum with a Major League low .174
batting average against them.

Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day

As duly noted on this page five days ago, life generally yields better results to people when they’re not waking up in parked cars at 5 am. For lefthanded starter Danny Duffy of the Royals, currently tied for first place with the White Sox and Indians in the American League Central, this change has resulted in a 4-1 record with a 0.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, with 34-9 K-BB. He got it all started with 6 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball at Cleveland in KC’s 3-0 win on April 5. The Indians are hitting only .198 vs. left-handed pitching and offer up Tristan McKenzie on getaway day of a series they lead 3-0. So, the Royals are playing to avoid being swept in addition to getting a one-game lead on the Indians. McKenzie’s control, or lack of it, suggests that he ain’t up to the task: 18 walks in 18 2/3 innings. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals remain atop the NL Central after yesterday's doubleheader split. They have won 9 of their last 12 (+$615) while averaging almost 5.0 runs per game at the plate. The Mets can't hit, averaging just 3.1 runs per game, and they'll face a capable right-hander in John Ganr, who checks in with a 2.16 ERA in his five outings. We get a terrific price on a hot home team, as they look to make it 3 out of 4 in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s getaway day in Philadelphia and the two starters have good control to stay ahead of the hitters by getting the calls from the home plate umpire. Brandon Woodruff is going longer than ever so far this season — 6 innings in each of his last four starts, 7 innings before that. He has walked only 9 in 35 innings and has a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, plus a good bullpen behind him. Zach Wheeler has pitched 8 innings of 1-hit ball, then 7 innings, in his last two starts. Both offenses are in the bottom third of MLB in Hits per Run. Strand those few baserunners you put on, guys!

Rating: 2 Units

This isn’t Koufax-Marichal or Bieber-Cole. It’s Hyeon-Jong Yang in his Major League starting debut for Texas, against Lewis ‘Don’t Call Me Jim’ Thorpe. Yang spent 14 years in Korean baseball so he’s no kid, but still. Meanwhile, Thorpe is a lefty and the Rangers actually average about 7.0 runs per games when the other side starts a southpaw. That includes last night, when they got only 1 run in 5 1/3 innings against lefty JA Happ. But Happ had been pitching well and even if Yang does likewise, this Twins bullpen is a mess. They’re afraid to put Alex Colome in games now, with good reason. But they don’t have great options whoever they turn to. Thorpe’s most recent start lasted 4 innings and although he allowed only 2 runs in 4 innings, the Twins’ bullpen came in and did its usual lousy job in a 10-3 loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals are sizable underdogs after losing the first two games of this series, squaring off against Cleveland ace Shane Bieber. But KC is averaging 5.5 runs per game vs. righthanders (+$310), and they have a capable arm in Brady Singer, who checks in with a 3.09 ERA in his five appearances this year. The Indians average just 3.8 runs per game vs. righties, so we'll look for the Royals to get on track at Kaufman Stadium.

Rating: 2 Units

Not only did Braves’ righthander Huascar Ynoa pitch 7 shutout innings of 4-hit ball against the Nationals last night, but he also hit a grand slam in their 6-1 win. That’s ridiculous. Today the Braves throw a lefty at the Nats, who sport the best team batting average against southpaws (.305) and the second best OPS (.869). Max Fried has been no ordinary lefty but he was much less
than ordinary against Washington and Miami on April 7 and 13, his two most recent starts, allowing 17 hits and 13 runs in 6 total innings. Yow. Welcome back. Hope to see you improve in your next start in five days. Erick Fedde, after giving up 6 runs in 1 2/3 innings vs. the Braves on April 7, has allowed only 6 runs total in his four starts since.

Rating: 4 Unit

The Nationals beat Max Fried 10-4 last season. They beat him 7-6 about a month ago, getting 8 hits and 5 runs in 2 innings against him. Fried followed up that start with 4 innings of work against Miami in which he allowed 9 hits and 8 runs in a 14-8 loss. Hey, at least the Braves can hit their way back from deficits if Fried form holds in his first start since then. Atlanta has been horrible against left-handed pitching, but just fine against righties, which is Erick Fedde’s side and Fedde doesn’t seem to have a Hall of Fame tag hung on that arm. The Braves who’ve faced him have partied to a .384 Batting Average and .611 Slugging Percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets fired their two batting coaches, and now Jacob deGrom’s Tuesday start was missed due to a sore lat muscle. Lucky for them yesterday was rained out. But their hitters who aren’t hitting are still facing a stranger, whether it’s Johan Oviedo or Kwang-Hyun Kim. Both are doing just fine so far. Marcus Stroman is fine, too, but the Mets couldn’t support him well enough vs. Philadelphia last time out in a 2-1 loss. Tonight, a lousy hitting team with two days off since they last swung the bats shows up with some rust on them, too.

Rating: 2 Units

The Athletics have the best record in the AL, after winning last night's series opener. They own an 8-3 record vs. left-handers (+$445) and should make short work of Anthony Kay, who floundered in his only start (10.81 ERA).  Cole Irvin has looked sharp in his five starts (3.67 ERA), and he's taking on a Toronto team that is only 2-6 (-$390) in night games on the road. A very reasonable price on the hot home team tonight at the Coliseum.

Rating: 2 Units

Ever since the Rays waved bye-bye to Alex Cobb, he has pitched well against them. In 2018 for the Orioles he faced them twice in two weeks, in 4-3 losses. He went 6 and 7 innings, a quality start each time. He faced them twice in 2020 in a 6-3 win and a 2-1 loss. He has allowed only 1 home to them in 62 at-bats. The lineup that supports him in L.A. is better than it was in Baltimore, for sure. Shane McClanahan goes at it in his second appearance of the season after allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in 4 innings home vs. Oakland. The guy who started last night’s game for them, Tyler Glasnow (AL-best 0.87 WHIP), gave them 6 innings of 3-run ball. McClanahan probably won’t do better and the Rays are hitting only .224 as a team. The 7 runs they scored last night was their most in two weeks.

Rating: 4 Units

Former Twins righthander Kyle Gibson has been doing all right for the Rangers in his 2020 short season and so far in 2021. One would think that at first glance, coming back to Minnesota for the first time since they waved bye-bye to the guy would be a great spot for him to continue his resurgence. But this Twins lineup isn’t as bad as the team’s 11-16 record would indicate. They’ve been hitting the ball better lately and most of their struggles have been against left-handed pitching. There is also the matter of Gibson having been owned by Andrelton Simmons and Josh Donaldson, while they were members of other teams. Simmons is 7-for-20 with a double-triple and homer against Gibson, Donaldson even better at 6-for-13 with a double and 3 homers. JA Happ is off two very good outings for the Twins, but against light-hitting Detroit and Cleveland. The Rangers aren’t lighting up opposing pitchers in general but they’re hitting better than those other two offenses and have averaged better than 7 runs per outing in games started by opposing lefties.

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

As far as starting pitching in this era of Major League Baseball is concerned, Reds’ righthander Jeff Hoffman has had four very passable starts. He’s yet to give up more than 3 runs, and gave up only 1 hit to the Dodgers on April 27. Woulda been nice if he hadn’t walked 5 of them, but they won the game anyway. He is supported by the best-hitting home team in MLB with the Reds averaging 7.73 runs per game in this park, as a well as a Major League best Hits per Run rate of 1.54. The White Sox have been better vs. lefties than righties since the beginning of last season. Dylan Cease has one good start out of five, his most recent. But it came against the Detroit Tigers, the worst-hitting team in MLB. When your best was against the worst, at home, then your worst might come against the best, on the road.

Rating: 4 Units

Although the Tigers are scoring only 2.7 runs per game, this could be a situation where the Red Sox go Over the total on their own. Guys who have faced him have clubbed Detroit starter Michael Fulmer: .500 for Xander Bogaerts, .500 for Marwin Gonzalez. Detroit’s bullpen ERA hasn’t gotten any lower since getting off to a 6.00+ start. It’s currently at 6.51 and Fulmer is no innings eater. He’s 3 or 4 innings, usually.

Rating: 2 Units

Some may be willing to take a chance on Dean (Chance? Dean?) Kremer as a slight road dog. But his spring training ERA was 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work, with 17 hits and 8 walks (3 home runs). This, when you pitch for the Orioles, earns you a spot on the opening day roster and starts in the month of April. And, another today in May. This, after three more for-real starts in which his ERA is 8.40. The 24 hits (4 home runs) and 6 walks have helped to create a 2.00 WHIP. Perhaps this is why the Mariners have been on the fence with an “Undecided” for so long, because it doesn’t matter who they start? Reports of Eric Swanson are fine with us. He has thrown only 2 innings so far: 0 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB at Baltimore on April 13. Him, or a reasonable facsimile.

Rating: 2 Units

Professional managers and coaches say it all the time: ‘Your worst performance is often followed by your best.’ Mariners’ lefty Justus Sheffield allowed a career high 12 hits to the Astros in 5 1/3 innings of work last time out. “You’re not going to have all three of your plus pitches every time,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said afterwards. “There were a couple of sliders that just didn’t have that finish to it, that bite. Not quite as sharp as he has been in the past.” Well, in sports, the past is present. We hope. Angels who’ve faced Sheffield are 5-for-26 against him, 1 double and 0 home runs. Dylan Bundy has made five starts for the Angels and has yet to be credited with a win (0-2). That’s not all his fault as his numbers are fine. But the Angels’ bullpen is not.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals remain atop all of MLB with a 16-9 record following yesterday's blowout win, yet they are enormous underdogs in today's rubber match at Target Field. Minnesota continues to flounder, losing 3 of their last 11 (-$815) and they are now only 2-8 (-$1120) in day games at home. Brad Keller has been sub-par in 2021, hence the generous price. But KC is now 11-5 when facing righthanders (+$610), so we like our chances vs. Berrios & Co.

Rating: 4 Unit

You have to be a pretty good pitcher for your team to be a -130 favorite in Tampa, who is last year’s AL Champ. Cristian Javier of the Astros is becoming pretty good. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and only 8 hits in those 17 innings. Rich Hill usually gives 5 fine innings and gives way to the bullpen that started it all with the bullpen thing, which got them to the World Series last year.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nats have won three straight, and are home with ace Max Scherzer on the mound while tied for first place. Big game! What could go wrong? Well, plenty but a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber, as a relatively short favorite compared to where he’s typically been on the odds board, seems like a decent opportunity. Washington is down around Mets-Tigers level near the bottom of the ol’ Runs per Game chart (3.65), but hidden within that number is a Major-League high .312 Batting Average against left-handed pitching. Miami lefty Trevor Rogers has out-dueled Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (impressive!) and Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann (not so impressive!) in his last two starts and has allowed 0 runs in three of his five. That’s nothing to sneeze at during allergy season but all we need is for the Nats to squeeze out one more run in a low-scoring game for us to be 2-0 in it. Scherzer is an ace off a bad outing in a strange ballpark (Toronto’s, in Dunedin, FL) coming home to friendly confines. He helped Washington win a couple of 1-0 games before that.

Rating: 2 Units

We keep saying that a) good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts, and b) Jack Flaherty will be a -160 or greater option before long. And yet, he keeps coming back at considerably lesser odds, this evening against a so-so foe. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Flaherty’s starts and he stretched out to 7 innings last time against the Reds, allowing 3 hits and 1 run. His WHIP is 0.95; Pirates who have faced him are hitting just .192 against Flaherty with 0 home runs in 82 at bats. Seems like a bit much to overcome for a home team scoring only 3.8 runs per game and countering with a ho-hum, hangin’ on journeyman Trevor Cahill. Paul Goldschmidt is 3-for-4, Matt Carpenter 6-for-13 against Cahill. Nolan Arenado is 3-for-12 but 2 of the hits were doubles. Cahill’s ERA is 7.11 with a 1.42 WHIP after 19 innings of alternating bad-good starts, most recently good.

Rating: 2 Units

The anemic Mets offense waster another fine pitching performance last night, losing a 2-1 decision in the series opener. They're averaging just 2.7 runs per game, and have a 1-6 record in night games on the road (-$725 so far). Zack Wheeler has been effective in his five starts for the Phillies, and the team has a 9-4 record here at Citizens Bank (+$590). The cheap price on the home team is hard to resist.

Rating: 2 Units

A couple of struggling righthanders may re-discover their best stuff today. Then again, they may not. Last night’s Cubs/Reds went Over for us 8-6. Today, the Cubs starter enters with a 9.47 ERA and 2.21 WHIP after his first 19 innings as a member of this organization, his third in the last three seasons. Zach Davies has more walks (15) than strikeouts (14) and is pitching to the lineup that averages the most runs per game in its home ballpark, 7.77. Meanwhile, the Reds have lost four of Luis Castillo’s five starts. He allowed more hits than innings pitched in all four losses. His ERA and WHIP of 6.29 and 1.60 are nowhere near his career averages of 3.74 and 1.19. Reds’ bullpen ERA: 5.81

Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day

Life in a parked car at 5 am is no fun and it pretty much inhibits you from being at your best in several key day-to-day responsibilities. Royals lefthander Danny Duffy seems to have finally figured that out, for the time being, and avoided that kind of existence. Although his 5 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball against the Tigers six days ago is next to meaningless because it came against a team that can’t do anything vs. lefties, he’d made three quality starts prior to that. With the Royals still in first place in the American League Central despite last night’s 9-1 loss here, he enters with a WHIP of 1.04, ERA of 0.39. Duffy made three straight starts against the Twins in August last season and got better each time. The Twins won all three. Minnesota acquired Matt Shoemaker from the Angels after L.A. could stomach him no more. He is a long, black-bearded mediocrity and the Twins have lost his last three starts 8-6, 7-0 and 6-2.

Rating: 2 Units

The 7-inning no-hitter thrown by D-Backs’ lefty Madison Bumgarner on Sunday was a little too good to be believed, especially since it came against the play against team from above that is hitting .139 against left-handed pitching (see how nicely we lead into these things?) Jon Gray recently beat the D-Backs in Coors Field with 6 2/3 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball. They are 4-2 when he starts, both losses to the Dodgers. He brings a 1.09 WHIP, 2.54 ERA into this despite pitching in Coors Field for five of his six starts.

Rating: 4 Units

Michael Pineda of the Twins got unlucky last time out against the Pirates when the Twins continued their habit of throwing the ball all over the field, everywhere except to where it needed to go. But shortstop Andrelton Simmons is back on the field and their defense probably can’t continue to be that bad. Pineda has a 0.90 WHIP after four starts and Royals who have faced him are a mere 7 for 52 against Pineda. Brady Singer faced the Twins in three straight starts as a rookie. He did all right, especially for a rookie facing the same playoff-making lineup three times in a 10-day span. With that trial by fire under his belt he faces them for the first time in 2021, off 2-0 and 2-1 wins in which he pitched 13 innings and allowed only 5 hits and 1 run.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves are hitting .139 against left-handed pitching. Who does that? Well, they do, so far. This level of futility comes with 4 home runs and 10 RBI in 118 at-bats. They are duking it out with Detroit to see who can be worse. Lefty Robbie Ray has a decent history against the guys he’s faced in this deficient-vs.-lefthanders lineup, allowing only 2 home runs in 80 at bats with a .286 Slugging Percentage against him. The bullpen behind Ray has a 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Drew Smyly… yawn. 4, 5, 6 runs allowed in his three starts, including 6 home runs. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.62 runs per game in their latest of friendly Florida confines in Dunedin, FL, #4 in home ballpark scoring.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs have awakened from their hitting slump and are tied with two other teams for best Hits per Run ratio in MLB, 1.57. One of the other two teams is the Reds, who return home to a ballpark in which they average 7.75 runs per game and are facing a starter who, while his short-sample 1021 numbers are better than in his last two seasons, still has much to prove as to whether or not he’ll ever achieve his old All-Star form. Meanwhile, the Cubs have 11 homers vs. left-handed pitchers, more than a bunch of teams with more at-bats against southpaws. Wind is blowing out to right-center. Up, up and away!

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves’ righthander Bryce Wilson was dropped out of the sky into a post-season game as a MLB-debuting rookie against the Dodgers last year and  allowed 1 hit in 6 innings in an Atlanta win. So far, this looks to have been a one-hit wonder (get it? He allowed 1 hit, ‘one-hit wonder’? Ha-ha). Anyway, with 9 total innings pitched in two starts, Wilson has allowed 11 hits and 6 runs. These Cubs, and the Diamondbacks, each hit 2 home runs against him. The Cubs beat him 13-4 on April 18 and should be happy to see him again so soon. Cubs starter Adbert Alzoloay has pitched only against the Brewers so far this season. Three starts, three losses. The Braves have been a more efficient offense than Milwaukee’s. Despite big struggles against left-handed pitching (.137 batting average vs. southpaws, yikes!), Atlanta’s Hits Per Run ratio of 1.58 is #4 in MLB, behind Chicago’s #2 of 1.56 Hits per Run.

Rating: 4 Units

The Tigers have been the meekest American League offensive team against left-handed pitching, with a .182 batting average against them, On-Base Percentage of only .239. White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon followed up on his no-hitter with 5 innings of 3-hit, 2-run ball on the road at Cleveland. Not bad, considering the Indians were the team he no-hit and they’d just faced him six days prior. Rodon has allowed only 2 runs and 5 hits in three starts, which have totaled 19 innings. His White Sox teammates hit heavy against lefties, close to normal vs. righties.

Rating: 2 Units

In the first two games of this series, our ‘trigger’ was the scenario of the Astros facing a Seattle lefthander after they’d done okay vs. Kikuchi in Seattle despite not having 33% of the starting batting order available, and being pro-Houston. That was the right move each time and that is the scenario here, with Kikuchi in the flesh to try to improve upon the 5 runs he allowed to the Astros’ B lineup in that game. After wins as home favorite of -170 and -160, then yesterday’s ‘pass’ on Houston against a righty at -200 (they won that one, too), today’s -150 is pretty much a ‘buy low’ on these Astros, who have proven worthy in the situation while quickly leapfrogging the Mariners in the standings. Seattle came into this series in first place in the AL West. Not anymore.

Rating: 2 Units

The Athletics look to bounce back from two defeats and achieve a split of the four game series with ace righthander Chris Bassitt, who's been flashing good form in recent appearances (3.00 ERA last two). The A's remain atop the competitive AL West (7-3, +$385 last 10 days) and come in here with a 7-3 record in day games (+$455). They'll face a first time starter at Tropicana Field, so we'll take the visitor against the Tampa rookie left-hander.

Rating: 2 Units

Eyeballing this match-up yesterday we were hoping the Rockies would still be winless on the road because it’s more fun that way. But they won last night. No problem. We’re pretty sure that that they’ll win more than 1 of 81 away from Coors Field. A good spot for another would be when starting a pitcher like German Marquez. Or, better yet, German Marquez himself. Until Jon Gray suddenly became consistently good this April (with five more months to get through), Marquez was Colorado’s most reliable starter for the last few seasons. He made two starts vs. the Giants in 2020. One was home, the other in whatever the heck they’re calling it this year — Pac Bell? SBC? AT&T? Nah, not it. But who cares? Marquez was 2-0 in those games, giving up 11 hits and 3 runs in 13 1/3 innings with 12-2 K-BB. Lefty Alex Wood, first-season Giant, is 2-0 after befuddling the Marlins in back-to-back starts. We’ll let him prove he can get past this lineup, with guys who’ve combined to hit .304 against him with a .584 slugging percentage and 17 RBIs in 56 at-bats.

Rating: 2 Units

Young Dunning has done okay so far for the win-later Rangers after being traded by the win-now White Sox for Lance Lynn over the winter. While the White Sox validated themselves by shellacking the heck out of him five days ago (‘Hey, we traded you. You think we’re not going to kill you now?), he’d given the Rangers three starts of 6, 4, 5 innings prior to that, allowing 10 hits and 1 run in 15 innings with 17-2 K-BB. But then came his former teammates, in Chicago, to put the second-year major leaguer in his place. But the Angels have never faced Dunning as the scoreboard re-sets to 0-0 and Alex Cobb opposes him. In nine MLB seasons before this, his first with the Angels, Cobb’s K-per-9 inning rates have been: 6.3, 7.0, 8.4, 8.1, 6.5, 6.4, 6.0, 5.8, 6.5. So far in 2021 after three very spaced-apart starts, that rate is 13.2 Ks per 9 innings. That’s what we call ‘No way, Jose’ numbers, whiffing almost twice as many guys per 9 IP as in any of the last five seasons. A guy with a 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP despite the too high-to-be-believed K rate destined to come down, seems like a meaty bone being served to a hungry home dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs lost to Atlanta for the fourth time in five head to head games this season (-$350) when they squared off last night, and they're poised to get swept at SunTrust Park. Chicago now has a pitiful 4-13 record vs. right-handers in 2021 (-$1120), averaging a mere 2.9 runs per game in those contests. Huascar Ynoa checks in with a 2.25 ERA at home, while Kyle Hendricks has been ineffective in four starts for the Cubs (-$355, 5.68 ERA). Good spot for the Braves to pick up another win over the struggling visitor.raves to pick up another win over the struggling visitor.

Rating: 4 Units

Steven Matz has been having just a high old time of it for his new team, Toronto. Four starts, four wins. a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Sign him up to start the All-Star game and begin engraving his name on the Cy Young Award, right? Well, not so fast, my friends. This National League refugee has been foolin’ American League teams. Washington is in the National League. They know this guy from being in the same NL East with him. They have driven Matz to many an ERA-inflating early exit. Speaking of early exits, we give you the Nationals’ Erikc Fedde, averaging less than 5 IP per start with an ERA of 5.55, WHIP of 1.47. Blue Jays are averaging 6.14 runs per game in their Florida ballpark.

Rating: 2 Units

Sonny Gray has faced the Dodgers only once since coming to the National League. It was in April, 2019, and he threw 6 innings of 2-hit ball against them. Nice, but, even though it was only two seasons ago, there is much water under that bridge. The Dodgers have become a better-hitting team in the interim. Gray, meanwhile, tailed off badly in the latter part of 2020, made a late 2021 debut, and after two starts has a 7.88 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. He couldn’t complete 5 innings against Cleveland, then failed to make it out of the fourth inning at St. Louis. It’s a 1:10 pm, PT local start, in broad daylight throughout. No shadows to help. Nowhere to hide. That goes for Kershaw, too, who is who he is but it would not be a surprise if, given Gray’s most recent history and some Cincinnati bullpen meltdowns, L.A. went Over this total on their own.

Rating: 2 Units

A lay as large as last night’s, and now tonight’s, is higher than we’ll typically go but ya’ gotta do what ya’ gotta do in order to win. Right? Right. We referenced the situation yesterday: Houston hits lefties pretty well. They got to one in Seattle despite missing 33% of their starting batting order but lost the game. They got to one last night for 12 hits and 5 runs in 5 1/3 innings with all of those guys back. (Hey, with 12 hits, they shoulda scored more than 5 runs against Sheffield, for cryin’ out loud!) Even Jose Altuve, whose status they were keeping under wraps, showed up for the first time in a while and went 3-for-5 with 2 RBI. Did Seattle learn anything? Seemingly not. They insist on throwing another lefthander at the Astros tonight, against whom the Houston batters have a .318 against in 138 at-bats. Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman… hitting .429, .500, .444 and .348 against Marco Gonzalez. The Astros counter with Cristian Javier, who exits a pair of 5-inning, 3-hit, shutout ball starts against the A’s and Angels with total K-BB 16-3.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets have the second worst Hits per Run scored ratio in MLB, 2.32 hits for every run. They are #28 of 30 in runs per game: 3.29. With this offense — always eligible to improve but being what it is right now — they throw lefty David Peterson, who has yet to log a full Major League season, at the lineup with the best road batting average and slugging percentage in MLB, .286 and .510. When the Cubs were having mysterious problems at the plate, the baseball gods sent Peterson to Wrigley field last week to help revive Chicago bats in a 16-4 Mets loss started by Peterson, who allowed 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Only 3 of the runs were earned but 3 runs in 3 1/3 innings is a better offensive rate than the Mets have been scoring at over 8 or 9 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

Nationals ace Max Scherzer is pitching like Max Scherzer: three starts five days apart totaling 19 innings, only 9 hits, 1 run, 24-4 KK-BB. He and his teammates head Blue Jay way to play against Tampa-based Toronto batters who have combined for 6 hits in 56 at-bats against Scherzer. That’s an .066 Batting Average. It’s a good thing for them that they haven’t had to face Scherzer in every at-bat, or they’d have to find a new profession for a lot less money! Meanwhile, Toronto is turning Tyler Thornton into a reliever/opener. So far, so good with a 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings. Toronto’s bullpen has a 2.10 ERA, lowest in MLB, paired with a respectable fifth lowest WHIP of 1.12. Home pitchers will be tossing at the lineup with the worst Hits per Run ratio in MLB: 2.39 hits for every run scored by the Nationals.

Rating: 5 Units

One of the pleasant surprises for Matheny has been Tuesday's starting pitcher, RHP Jakob Junis. Originally slated for long relief and the occasional spot start, Junis is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA. He's gone exactly five innings in his three starts and appears to have found a solid spot in the rotation. Junis will face lefty Tyler Anderson, who is 2-2 with a 3.92 ERA. He has been steady, going five or 5 1/3 innings, and allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. He's struck out 21 in 20 1/3 innings. Neither Junis or Anderson has faced Tuesday's opponent before.

Rating: 4 Units

You have to believe that Kenta is Maeda better stuff than the efforts that have produced a 6.11 ERA and 1.87 WHIP after four starts. He made 11 starts in his first season with the Twins and had an ERA of 2.70, WHIP of 0.75. There’s regressions, for sure, but this is too far the other way. The light-hitting Indians are a good lineup for him to get back on track against. But the Twins batters have gone cold against just about anybody and everybody, lefty, righty, young, old, doesn’t matter. In the one game Minnesota has managed to win in their last 13, they scored 2 runs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros aren’t hitting .300 against lefties anymore but their run production against them has been just fine, as it was when they faced a different Mariners lefty — Kikuchi — in Seattle during a recent road trip. They got 5 runs against that guy despite playing without Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. But they still had a 5-2 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh of that game, when the bullpen started to blow it. Altuve has still been out but the others are back. Justus Sheffield has a more difficult lineup to get through than any of the Seattle pitchers had during that prior series in Seattle. Jose Urquidy gave the Astros 5 2/3 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball in that loss which is all you can ask for and not unreasonable to expect again.

Rating: 2 Units

Nobody’s been hitting Corbin Burnes well. The first to do it wouldn’t figure to be the Marlins, coming out of San Francisco off the red-eye after scoring 0, 3, 5, 3 runs in that series. Burnes has made four starts, all 6 innings, allowing 1, 1, 2 and 4 hits, a total of 1 run in 24 innings with 40-0 K-BB. That’s 0 walks, not a misprint. It’s 1-2-3 strikes you’re out!… 1-2-3 strikes you’re out! The bullpen behind Burnes is good. Miami starter Trevor Rogers is doing well in his own right: 4 starts, a total of 22 IP, with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, only 1 home run allowed. Not bad, kid. Rogers pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball vs. Baltimore five days ago, needing only 82 pitches in a 3-0 win. The Yelich-less Brewers have never faced him at this level and are hitting a mere .222 vs. left-handed pitching.

Rating: 4 Units

The Royals’ Brad Keller has been having serious trouble early, failing to make it out of the second inning twice, and the fourth inning another time. He has allowed 16 hits and 16 runs in 12 inning pitched. Yow. The Tigers’ offensive woes have been at their worst against left-handed pitching. Keller is righthanded. On the opposite end of the trouble spectrum, the Tigers’ bullpen has an ERA of 6.11, WHIP of 1.59. The ERA is highest in MLB, the WHIP second-highest behind Colorado’s 1.61.