I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While they've been on a nice roll, tonight, the Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After dropping all four games on their road trip, the 76ers return home in a very angry mood. The fact that the Thunder beat them at OKC earlier (and upset the 76ers here last year) will only intensify that anger. While they've had their issues on the road, the 76ers are a dominant 16-2 here at home. Opposing teams score a mere 101.5 ppg here. Meanwhile, the Thunder score only 103.8 ppg on the road. While OKC hits 44.4% of its fg's on the road, the 76ers hit 47.6% of theirs, here at home. Expect the "hungrier" team to win this one by double-digits. 

I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window, which has worked in our favor by keeping the line reasonably low. They've now failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games, a streak dating back to 11/25. I successfully played on them in the lone ATS win though (while avoiding them in all 8 losses) and I feel that this will be another strong spot to back them. If you looked at those games, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams won by 18 while laying 19. Previously, some of the other ATS losses included: laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. This afternoon's number is relatively small though. This is a George Mason team that the Rams beat by 16 and 35 points last season. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While its been a tough start at the betting window, I believe that a date vs. the instate rival Hokies will bring out the best in the Cavaliers. The last time that these teams met here, the Cavs were laying -7.5 points. They were already up 44-22 by the break and won by a score of 82-59. While the Hokies allowed a mere 37 points last time out, that was against lowly MD-East Shore. Note that they're just 2-7 ATS the past nine times that they allowed 50 or fewer points in their previous game, 0-2 ATS already this season. The Cavs were a dominant 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS the past two Januarys. Expect them to improve on those stats as they start the new year with another win and cover. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I believe that we can expect the Cougars to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Thats because they haven't forgotten that the Knights came in here last season, when Houston had a 27-1 record (best in the nation) and the longest home winning streak in the country, and upset the Cougars. Some called it the biggest win in UCF history. The Knights were helped considerbly by a double-double from Tacko Fall in that game. As you probably know, he's since moved on. Off b2b losses, the Knights just lost by 16 against Temple. Houston, on the other hand, is rolling. The Cougars are 4-0 SU/ATS  their past four. Three of those were on the road; the lone home game saw them win by 20 as an -11.5 point favorite. Motivated by last year's loss, expect the Cougars to keep on rolling for another day, pulling away for a one-sided blowout win. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are desperate for a win and the Grizzlies represent the perfect opponent. The Grizzlies used to be known for their defense but thats no longer they case. They're allowing 116.2 ppg this season. The Kings are considerably more stingy. They allow 108.3 ppg. Here at home, that number dips to just 106. While they lost earlier at Memphis, the Kings beat the Grizzlies both times, here at Sacramento, last season. Yes, the Grizzlies won their last game. However, that was at home, against Charlotte. Note that they're 2-4 ATS off a home win. The Kings are 4-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier (same season) loss. Losers of eight straight, over the years, they've gone 10-4-1 ATS after losing their previous eight. Expect them to play with desperation, bouncing back with a badly needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Ducks are indeed a very strong team and they've been playing well. However, in my opinion, the same can be said of the Buffaloes. They've won four straight and covered the last two of those. Last time out, they tied a school record with 17 3-pointers. Seven players scored in double-digits, the first time thats happened in more than five years. Also, the Buffs dished out 26 assists, their most in years. Keep in mind that Colorado returned nearly everyone from last year's team. The same group, essentially, which beat the Ducks (again) here last season. The Buffs allow 58.9 ppg at home while the Ducks allow 71.5 ppg on the road.  Playing in the thin air (altitude) gives the Buffaloes a big advantage. Note that Oregon has never won here at Boulder and that the Ducks will face the Utes on the road, on Saturday. That Colorado/Utah road trip is always tough, generally considered to be the most difficult in the conference. The Buffs are looking for respect and a win here will get it. Look for them to find their way into the top 25 after scoring the minor upset here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I expect homecourt to prove the difference in this one. The Bearcats come in rested and hungry. They're 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Huskies are just 3-6 ATS the past couple of seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points and that includes a 1-8 SU record. While UConn has won three straight, those games came against the likes of St. Peters, New Hampshire and NJ Tech. Its also worth noting that the Huskies are just 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they'd won their previous three. Expect the Bearcats to take this one, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. These teams split a pair of meetings last season. Favored by 4.5 points, the Bullogs won by nine, on their home floor. The Red Storm returned the favor with a 4-point home win, as a 4-point favorite. Tonight, however, the Red Storm are getting points, rather than laying them. While I respect Butler, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that St. John's knocked off Arizona, on the road, last time out. (An outright win as a double-digit underdog.) This is a team which is playing its best and which hasn't lost in weeks. The Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During the same span, the Red Storm were 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a upset win, as a double-digit underdog. Expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets have been tough at home recently. Playing with double-revenge, I expect their best effort on New Year's Eve. Since the Celtics' last visit, on 11/9, the Hornets have played 13 home games. While the Hornets only won five of those 13 games, they were very competitive in nearly every one of them. In fact, only one of those 13 home games resulted in a loss of greater than seven points. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS after having failed to cover in two or more consec. games and 1-0 ATS after having failed to cover their previous three. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Suns are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses and with their next five on the road, the Blazers know they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Suns eked out a road win last time out. However, they're still 6-8 away from Phoenix and they're also 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they were off a road win of three or fewer points. The Blazers have beaten the Suns 11 straight times. They've beaten the Suns six straight times here at Portland, the past five of those all coming by a minimum of seven points. A closer look at those past five meetings here at Portland finds that the Blazers were laying double-digits for all five games. We're being asked to lay a much lower line here and I feel thats providing excellent value. Expect the Blazers to continue their dominance in the series, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I've fared very well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I feel that this is another team that they match up very well against. Vanderbilt was 9-23 last season, 0-18 within its conference. The Commodores entered this season with just 10 eligible scholarship players. One of them, senior forward Clevon Brown, is out. Another (Obinna) is questionable. The Wildcats, who are playing their best basketball of the season with three consecutive SU/ATS wins, are 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were a road favorite (or pick'em) of three or less. Davidson is a perfect 10-0 SU the past 10 times that it had scored 25 or less in the first half of its previous game. Expect a road win. 

I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window. They've now failed to cover the spread in seven straight games, a streak dating back to 11/25. If you looked at those games, however, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams lost by 10, as 5-point underdogs against Wichita State. That should have them in an angry mood here. Prior to that, laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. Enough is enough. The Rams are stepping down in class here and they're going to be ready to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Greyhounds have been on a nice roll but they haven't faced a defense like this one; the Rams force opposing teams to commit turnovers on 27.7% of their plays. Thats fourth best in the country. Expect a determined effort to lead to a blowout. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have already played the Bucks tough in both meetings. Milwaukee won each game by single digits. Playing at home and with double-revenge, I expect the Hawks to give the Bucks all they can handle once again. I'm well aware that the Bucks, who lost on Christmas Day, have fared well when coming off a loss. Thats not always the case though and a Christmas Day game is unique. Did you know that Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS the past five times that it was off a game where it was trailing by 20 or more at halftime? This is also arguably the "lowest profile" game/team that the Bucks will have played in a bit. With a game tomorrow, I feel they make lack their usual intensity here. While the Hawks also play tomorrow, they didn't play on Christmas and come in well-rested. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with three or more day's rest and they're 7-2 ATS their last nine in that situation. Expect the Hawks to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons 7-10 record at home isn't very good. However, its considerably better than Washington's 5-13 mark on the road. Here, the Pistons play with "double-revenge" from a pair of earlier losses. They certainly haven't forgotten that the Wizards hammered them here 10 days ago. Its important to note that the Wizards got 40 points in that game (23 and 17) from Thomas and Bertans and that neither of those players will be available for this one. The Pistons, meanwhile, played without Griffin and Drummond. Its going to be an entirely different game today. The Pistons are going to be desperate. They know they need to snap their skid today, as their next six games come on the road. Expect them to do exactly that, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Nuggets are one of the top teams in the West and this is their chance to show that to the world. I won with them when they hammered the Lakers the other day and then successfully played against them when they won but failed to cover, at Phoenix. They're back home now though and rested. Instead of facing a revenge-minded team (Suns) its the Nuggets who play with revenge, as the Pelicans beat them earlier. Note that that Nuggets are 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge a road loss where they were the favorite. The Pelicans may have won at Portland. However, they're at the end of a trip and they're still just 5-9-2 ATS on the road. They're also 0-4 SU/ATS when off an upset win as a road underdog. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. While I won with the Nuggets last night, this one favors the Suns. While the Nuggets are playing their third game in four days, the Suns are rested. Even though they've cooled off, they're still within striking distance of the playoffs, something which hasn't been the case at Christmas time in recent years. Playing with double-revenge, they're badly going to want this one. The Nuggets, 2-4 ATS off a road win and 0-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, could easily be thinking about their Christmas Day game and/or last night's win at LA. Both this season's meetings were at Denver and the Suns lost one of those by only a point. The last time they hosted the Nuggets (last season) they won outright as nine-point dogs. Playing at home, schedule in their favor, expect them to give the Nuggets all they can handle once again with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Bulldogs just earned a hard-fought double-OT win over a tough SMU team. Had they lost that game, I wouldn't like them in this one. However, having pulled it out, I believe it'll prove to be the type of victory that they can build momentum from. Now, they step down in class, against an instate "rival," and I believe they're ready to deliver a blowout. In addition to SMU, Georgia has faced the likes of Michigan State, Dayton and Ariizona State. The Eagles, who lose Tookie Brown from last year, have faced Auburn and Bradley, as their toughest opponents. They lost those two games by 39 combined points. Even North Dakota beat them by a dozen. Even after failing to cover against the Mustangs, the Bulldogs are a healthy 10-4 ATS in December games the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion here. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I believe that the Nuggets are visiting at the right time. LA is off four consecutive ATS losses, losing the last two of those outright. This is the Lakers' first game back from an Eastern trip and they could easily be already thinking about their Christmas Day showdown vs. Kawhi and co. As for the Nuggets, since going through a bit of a tough stretch, they're a perfect 5-0 their last five games. That tough stretch included a home loss vs. these same Lakers, a game Denver was favored in. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to continue their strong recent play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 22-12-1 ATS the past 35 times that they attempted to avenge a SU loss from a game in which they were favored. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs have played the Clippers tough in both this season's meetings. The game at LA resulted in a 6-point win for the Clippers, back on Halloween. A month later, for a game here at San Antonio on 11/29, the Spurs won outright, as 5-point underdogs, a 107-97 "upset" win. While I like their chances of another upset here, I'm also happy to grab the generous points. The Spurs just gave the Rockets all they could handle, losing by only two at Houston. Next, in their most recent game, they hammered the Nets by 13. The Spurs had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. This is their final home game before Christmas and they're going to want to make the most of it. On the other hand, the Clippers lost last time out. They also lost their last road game, getting upset by the Bulls, at Chicago. Unlike the Spurs, the Clippers play tomorrow. Additionally, they've got the big Christmas Day showdown coming up against Lebron and the Lakers. While the Spurs are 13-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs of six or less, the Clippers are 5-12 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. I won with the Blazers last time out. Here's an excerpt of what I said at the time: "....They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building..." Golden State actually played well but the Blazers still grinded out the double-digit win. Now, they're laying a much smaller number against another team they can handle. Once again, I believe that they'll take of business in this very "winnable" game. Anthony has settled into his role as the third option and this is a team ready to go on (at least) a mini run. The Magic have been competitive but have still dropped five of their last six. At the end of a trip, they're already looking forward to getting home in time for last minute Christmas shopping. Consider that the Blazers were laying -10 points when they hosted Orlando last season. Not enough has changed to warrant such a big line swing. The Blazers are 16-5 SU and 14-6-1 ATS against Southeast teams the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Mavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, including their first at home (now 14-1) the 76ers are going to be angry. The last time that they had lost b2b games, they snapped the skid right there with a 19-point win. The Mavs managed the upset at Milwaukee without Doncic. However, they lost against Boston last time out and his absence will be noticed again here. Talk about a tough stretch: the Bucks, the Celtics, the 76ers and up next the Mavs will face the defending world champs. Facing a highly motivated Philly team, it all catches up to the Mavs here. 76ers are 26-18-1 ATS (36-9 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range the past 2+ seasons and they improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Huge game, obviously. While both teams have been great, I believe that the Bucks are the more complete team. Playing at home, I expect them to have the advantage. Note that the Bucks won both last season's meetings by double-digits. While the Lakers have outscored teams by a solid 112.9 to 106.1 mark on the road, the Bucks have outscored teams by a dominating 122.3 to 107.9 margin here at home. While both teams hit roughly the same percentage of field goals, the Bucks are much stingier defensively. Opposing teams hit 41.5% of their fg's against Milwaukee compared to 43.6% (44.7% on road) for LA. Expect that superior defense, along with homecourt, to prove the difference, the Bucks improving to 30-11-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an upset loss. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Cougars' slow start, compared to last season, isn't that surprising. After all, they lost four seniors from last year's 33-win team that went to the Sweet 16. However, there's still plenty of talent here and they're fairly heavy favorites here for good reason. While Houston has faced quality programs like BYU, Oregon, South Carolina and Oklahoma State, UTEP's toughest opponent has arguably been New Mexico State. They did beat UC-Irvine last time out but previous wins has come against lightweights like NC AT&T and Ark-Pine Bluff. UTEP is still just 2-20 SU in lined road games the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cougars are 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a SU loss as a favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have played the Jazz tough the past couple of seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle again this evening. Two years ago, the Hawks won 104-90 here as home underdogs. Then, getting 13.5 points, they won at Utah. Last season, the Jazz won at Utah. However, the Hawks again gave them all they could handle, here at Atlanta. Getting 7.5 points, the Hawks again won outright, a 117-114 win. The Jazz are off b2b fairly close games, winning by seven and eight points, despite hosting the Warriors and Magic. The Hawks played the Lakers tough last time on this floor, losing by five. Including that result, they're 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. At 5-23, the Warriors' season is a write-off. There's no saving it. Thats not true for the Blazers though. They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building. The Blazers haven't forgotten losing at Golden State earlier or all those losses the Warriors have handed them in recent season. Tonight, they get some payback in serious blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE. This is a big line and I believe that it will prove to be too big. The Blue Demons lost a few key seniors from last season's team, two of them 5th year seniors. Despite those losses, they've been able to get off to a strong start. However, they dropped their first game last time out and I believe that the leadership lost with those seniors will show itself here. Off that loss, its going to be tough for this young team to bounce back and cover this big a number on the road. With a Big Ten team (Northwestern) on deck, followed by Big East play, it'll be easy to look past a team like Clev. State. The Vikings have won two of their last three here though, the loss coming by 15. Keep in mind that Depaul only beat this team by 10, at Chicago, last season. Playing at Cleveland, look for the Vikings to present a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Spurs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams met less than two weeks ago, at San Antonio. You may recall that one as it was a double-OT thriller. The Spurs won 135-133. The Rockets certainly haven't forgotten. So, they'll have payback on their minds. Also, they got upset here by Detroit last time out. With four road games following this one, they know they need to take care of business tonight. Note that they're 31-11 SU the past 2+ seasons, off an upset loss, 15-4 SU off an upset loss at home. During that span, the Rockets were also 31-10 SU when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Expect the revenge-minded Rockets to improve on those stats Monday, pulling away for a double-digit win while picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I won with the Wildcats in their last game, mentioning that this was a very talented team. (Full excerpt below, if interested.) Laying about 20, they won by 50. While this is, of course, a far tougher opponent, I expect the Cats to carry the positive momemtum forward into this game. These teams met, at Gonzaga, last November. Playing on their homecourt, the Bulldogs blew out the Wildcats. Needless to say, Arizona hasn't forgotten. Gonzaga, 2-3 ATS the past five times it was getting points, hasn't been an underdog yet this season. This will be its toughest game. The Bulldogs will be playing the second of b2b road games; they're 0-1 ATS in that situation this season and they're 8-12 ATS their last 20 when off a road win. Lay the short number with the talented and motivated home team. 

Writeup from Arizona's last game: The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Thunder have fared quite well as underdogs this season. However, they havent visited Denver yet. They lost at Sacramento by a point last time out and now they're playing the final leg of a road trip and final road game before Christmas. I believe that they're going to have trouble. The Nuggets returned home from a trip and promptly pounded Portland. They're 79-23 (SU) here the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're also 27-15 SU and 26-15-1 ATS against divisional opponents, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS this season. They dominated the Thunder last season and I expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. Its been a tough start at the betting window for the Hoyas, here at home. However, I expect a visit from their hated longtime rivals to bring out their best. Indeed, the bad blood between these teams goes back a long time. The Orange won by seven here two seasons ago and they won by one (as -9.5 point favorites) at Syracuse last season. This is a far less experienced Syracuse team though, providing the Hoyas with the perfect opportunity to break through with an important win and cover. The Orange, who hammered G-Tech last time out, are just 3-6 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 0-3 SU/ATS when off a conference win of 20 or more points. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off an upset win of 15 or more, as a road underdog and 2-0 SU/ATS off two or more consec. wins as a road underdog. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Already potentially weary from playing the 5th leg of a 6-game road trip, the Clippers may also be ripe for an emotional letdown after defeating the defending champs, at Kawhi's old stomping grounds. Either way, they're going to be facing an extremely motivated T-Wolves team. The Wolves haven't won yet this month and they're desperate to change that. Since scoring only 91 to begin their trip, the Clippers have hit at least 110 in each of their last three games. That's proven that its not necessarily a good thing; they're 0-4 ATS this season after scoring 105 or more in each of their previous three games. Look for the Wolves to bring their best effort, improving to 19-11 ATS the past 30 times that they had failed to cover their previous six games.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I backed the Hornets in their last game and they rewarded me with an upset win at Brooklyn. I don't think they're going to be able to do it again tonight though. Charlotte may come in with the better record but the Bulls are starting to get going and I believe that they're the superior team. Two games ago, the Bulls lost a 1-point game against Toronto, their third straight defeat of five or less. To take the champs down to the wire was still a good effort though and they followed it up with a 136-point explosion (136-102 win) against Altanta last game. They're quietly a dominant 25-9-2 ATS in December, the past 2+ seasons. They're also 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they were off a double-digit home win. Expect another one tonight. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off the home loss against OKC, which was preceded by a loss to the Lakers, the Blazers are going to be in an angry mood. They only previous time they lost a home game to a divisional opponent this season they bounced back with a double-digit win (and cover) in their next game. The Blazers were laying -11.5 when the Knicks played here last season and won by 10. We're working with a lower line tonight but I expect a bigger margin of victory. (The previous season, they were laying -9.5 but won by 24.) Portland knows that NY is 1-9 away from MSG and it knows it has road games at Denver and Phoenix on deck. In other words, the Blazers need to take care of business here. They will. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I mentioned when I backed them last time that the Wildcats are better than their record indicates. Indeed, this is a very strong and experienced team. I've done well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I believe they're going to lay a beating on this overmatched opponent. While the Wildcats are a very experienced team, the Eagles are a very inexperienced one. They brought back only one starter and only four players appeared in more than 12 games. Indeed, this is a mismatch and with tougher games on deck, Davidson will look to continue to build positive momentum by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After a slow start out of the gate, the Gophers are playing much better basketball than they were to start the season. A 78-60 win over Clemson last time out brought them to 3-1 SU their last four and 4-1 ATS their last five. Its important to note that their four losses this season all came by single digits, the last two by five or less. Speaking of close games, the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by five or less. The Gophers won 92-87 last January and 86-82 the previous February. While the Gophers are well-rested, the Hawkeyes have been playing a lot of basketball lately. Having played three straight away from home, losing two of them and dealing with some bumps and bruises, the tough schedule could be taking a toll. Expect the Gophers to give them all they can handle, en route to AT LEAST the ATS win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers continue to treat me well. Yesterday, I won with the 'over' in their game against the Cavs. In their previous game, I successfully played against them when they lost at Washington. The game before that? I successfully backed them when they beat Utah. You get the idea. Today, its a rematch against the hated Raptors, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year and which probably prevented them from being champions. The Ratpors won this season's first meeting (I won with the 'under' in that one) but that was at Toronto, while this one's at Philly. Thats a pretty significant difference, given that the 76ers are 5-7 on the road but 9-0 here at home. Needless to say, the 76ers are going to be extremely motivated. They're 32-10 SU as home favorites of six or fewer points the past 2+ seasons and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Yesterday's game was such a blowout and it was here at home, that its not really a factor. Yet, it has helped in keeping the line a bit lower than it could have otherwise been. I say the 76ers finally get a little payback. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Huskies are a mostly experienced and well-coached team. However, they've played a fairly soft schedule thus far and therefore the loss of their leader (Pusica) hasn't really caught up with. Davidson, has played a much tougher schedule and is a far stronger team that its record shows. I believe the Wildcats, also experienced and well-coached, have a considerable edge in talent. Yet, due to the records (and venue) we're not having to lay a big number with the superior team. Expect the cream to rise to the top, talented and determined Davidson getting it done. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. Its another "all Bulldog" matchup here. Once again, I'm going with the Bulldogs from LA Tech. Some will recall that I backed LA Tech against the Samford Bulldogs last time out. LA Tech won by 22, covering by double-digits. Off that win, confidence will be sky high. Other than Villanova, which beat Miss. State, this is the toughest team, in my opinion, that Miss. State will have faced. While Miss. State is a good team, I feel it could get caught looking ahead to a big game at K-State, next up on its schedule. Note that LA Tech is 2-0 ATS against the SEC the past couple of seasons while MSU is 0-2 ATS against Conf. USA. I mentioned in the win over Samford that LA Tech brought back four starters from last season. An experienced team, look for them to give their hosts a tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the 76ers in their last game. However, that was at home and they were laying less points than they are now. That 9-point win against Utah notwithstanding, the 76ers have been playing a lot of very close games lately. Their previous four games were all decided by six or fewer points. So, thats five straight decided by single-digits. That makes covering this kind of number on the road tough. The Wizards are going to be desperate. They're 16-8-1 ATS their last 25 as home underdogs. In what should be another close one, grab the points and look for the Wizards to improve to 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a home game where the O/U line was 230 or greater. 

I'm playing on UNC. The Buckeyes are off to a great start. However, they're playing at a very difficult venue and I expect the talented Tar Heels to bring them down to earth this evening. The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. During that span, the Heels are 4-1 SU/ATS as home favorites of six or less. While the Buckeyes scored 90 points last time out, it should be kept in mind that the opponent was Morgan State. Also, they're just 8-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. Expect homecourt to prove the difference, the ACC getting the better of the Big Ten in this one. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I successfully played against the Jazz in their last game. However, that was on the road, at a venue where visiting teams were 0-9 and the Jazz were at a scheduling disadvantage. They were also facing a 76ers team which was determined to avenge an earlier close loss. The shoe is completely on the other foot here though. This time, the Jazz are at home. This time, the Jazz are rested and facing a Laker team which played last night in the altitude of Denver. This time, the Jazz are the ones playing with revenge from an earlier loss. While their starts weren't very good, I liked the effort/heart the Jazz showed in each of their last two losses. They fell behind big in both cases but didn't quit either time. They're 11-4 ATS (12-3 ATS) their last 15, off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday night. 

I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN. The Eagles struggled last time out. Now at home, facing a Valparaiso team I feel they match up well against, I expect them to bounce back. While they only managed 56 points last time out, note that the Eagles are 10-4 ATS, the past couple of seasons, after having scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game. A closer look shows that they're 3-0 SU/ATS after having scored 60 or less in b2b games. They've also responded well to double-digit losses, going 11-5 (9-5 ATS) in that situation the past couple of seasons. While the Crusaders have fared well when they don't turn the ball over, they're 0-3 when turning the ball over more than 14 times. (The Eagles force an average of 21.4 turnovers.) The Crusaders are just 3-7-2 ATS (2-10 SU) the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz eked out a win when these teams met at Salt Lake City earlier. With this evening's rematch being played at Philadelphia and aided by a scheduling advantage, the 76ers should get some payback this evening. While the 76ers had Sunday off, the Jazz got blown out by the defending champs, at Toronto. They were crushed right out of the gate and there was a worry that the starters might get pulled. That didn't happen though as Mitchell still played more than 30 minutes, Bogdanovich 29+, Gobert more than 28 etc. While the Jazz have had a few b2b situations this season, they've been fortunate that they got to play them at home against weaker teams, New Orleans, Brooklyn, Sacramento etc. Now, however, they're on the road against one of the best in the East, a rested and revenge-minded Philly team. With a 9-0 record on this floor, the 76ers outscore visiting teams by an average of 109.9 to 99.1. The Jazz struggle to score on the road at the best of times and figure to have trouble doing so tonight. While the 76ers are 0-3-1 ATS their last four, they're also 14-6 ATS (16-4 SU) the past 20 times that they'd failed to cover in three or more straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. While both teams brought back four of five starters from last season, I believe that the LA Tech Bulldogs are a considerably better team and I expect them to show it here. The LA Tech defense forces a lot of turnovers and Samford has had real trouble on the road, going 0-4 SU/ATS. Samford has been outscored in those games by an average of 83 to 70.2. LA Tech, on the other hand, has outscored teams by an 85.3 to 52 margin here at home. Off a loss last time out, LA Tech will look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. After its previous loss, LA Tech won its next game by 33. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is a very difficult spot for the Hawks. Yesterday, they left it all on the floor in a 1-point OT loss at Indiana. That type of loss takes a toll but mentally and physically. They've won just seven of 31, when playing the second of b2b games, the past 2+ seasons. That includes an 0-4 mark this season, a 1-3 record at the betting window. In two road games, after having played the previous day, the Hawks are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by 15 and 21. This is arguably a more difficult venue than either of those ones were and the Hawks are off a tougher loss and in a tougher scheduling spot. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this represents their sixth game in the past nine days. Expect it to catch up to them here as the rested Rockets, 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON. Two solid teams squaring off in Vegas. I like the experience and depth that the BlueJays, which brought back five of last season's top six scorers, bring to the table. Note that they're 4-0 all-time at Orleans Arena, beating the likes of Wisconsin (84-74) and Arizona State (87-73) in 2012; as well as Fresno State (84-65) and DePaul (83-75) in 2008. I say that the BlueJays continue their success here, improving to 65-35 their last 100 non-conference games, while handing the Aztecs their first loss. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. The Huskies are a much deeper and more experienced than Oakland. The Grizzlies were supposed to be a really experienced team but they lost six players in the offseason, players that were expected to come back, including the team's starting backcourt. That's going to catch up with them against German and co. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS off a road win the past couple of seasons, 2-0 ATS off b2b road wins. Expect them to pull away for the win and cover, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Heat have been on a nice roll. However, playing their second straight on the road, on consecutive nights, I expect their streak to come to an end this evening. The Heat are already 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. They lost by 15 and by seven. The 76ers are 30-10 SU and 23-17 ATS when listed as home favorites of -6 or less. They won two of the three meetings last season, including the lone game here. Expect a win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. I won with both these teams in their last game. Tonight, playing at home, I expect it to be the Nets which keep it going. The Kings have been on an impressive ATS win streak. They're still only 2-4 on the road though. As I mentioned last time when the Nets won big, they really wanted a minimum of two of these three home games. After dropping the first, they can still salvage the 2-1 mark on the homestand. I expect them to be extremely motivated. The Nets took both last season's meetings, scoring 123 points in each game, including a 123-94 blowout here in Brooklyn. Nets roll. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. I successfully played against the Suns last time out. However, that was on the road against a revenge-minded Sacramento team. Now, they're back home to take on a banged-up Pelican team which is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away from New Orleans. With a pair of road games on deck and knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans in two weeks, at New Orleans, the Suns know they need to take care of business tonight. Otherwise, their hot start will soon be a distant memory. The Suns beat the Pelicans by seven the last meeting here. They're 5-2 ATS as favorites and I expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Off a tough road trip, the Nets came into their current 3-game homestand, games against the Pacers, Hornets and Kings, thinking that they really needed to go at least 2-1 and hopefully 3-0. However, they already got hammered by the Pacers in the first game. I believe thats going to lead to an extremely motivated effort tonight. While these teams split four meetings overall last season, the Nets have had plenty of success against Southeast teams overall; they're 23-13 SU/ATS against that division the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 14-8-1 ATS when off a loss by 15 or more. Catching Charlotte, which is 7-18-4 ATS off a loss of 15 or more, off a 36-point loss against the champs, expect the Nets to bounce back with their best effort, en route to a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. These teams met on opening night at Phoenix. I released a big play on the Suns and they came through for me with a decisive victory. They continued to roll for a long time after that, too. They've started to cool off now though and they're off a blowout loss against Boston last night. The Kings, on the other hand, have gone the other way. Off their opening loss at Phoenix, they really struggled for some time, going 0-5 SU/ATS their first five. They've covered every single game since then though, a 7-0 ATS (5-2 SU) run. Schedule and venue in their favor and playing with revenge from the opener, I expect the Kings to keep on rolling for at least one more night, improving to a perfect 8-0 ATS in November. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I won with the Wildcats in their last game. I noted that they were a very talented and experienced that was looking to explode, after a poor start. They did exactly that, destroying UNC-Wilmington. Nevada is probably a bit stronger than the Seahawks but is still a team that Davidson will be able to handle. I expect Davidson to carry its positive momentum to be carried forward. Note that the Wolfpack are off a double-digit loss and that they'll now be playing their first game on the road. While the Wildcats brought back their entire starting lineup from last season, the Wolfpack lost their entire starting lineup. They've got a new coach with a fairly big name (Alford) but he got a late start in recruiting and two of the players he signed are Div 1 transfers and have to sit out a season. In other words, Davidson has a vast edge in experience and depth. Expect it be to evident tonight as the Wildcats deliver another blowout. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams recently met at Milwaukee. The Bucks won by nine. Playing at home, I expect the Bulls to be even more competitive. With a very high O/U line, note that Chicago is 6-2 ATS the past eight times it had an O/U line of 230 or greater. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS on the season, after allowing 115 or more points. They're also 3-0 ATS when off a loss by six or less. The Bucks have seen four of five decided by single digits. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic are playing well right now. They beat the Spurs last time out and hammered the 76ers in their previous game. Thats three wins in their past four and they've hit triple-digits in scoring in five straight. While the Wizards have fared well as underdogs, I like how the Magic match up against them. Playing at home, I believe they'll have the advantage. With an O/U line in the low/mid 220s, note that the Magic are 9-5-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that span, they're also 17-6-2 after scoring 110 or more points in b2b games. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played yesterday. The Pacers don't typically mind playing the second of b2b games though. They're 17-12 ATS (16-13 SU) when doing so the past 2+ seasons. The only time that they did so this season, they won by 15 points. Plus, prior to last night, they had two nights off. So, they're not playing a 3-in-4 situation. In other words, I'm not too worried about the b2b spot and am happy with the extra line value its provided. As for last night, though they didn't cover, I liked the effort I saw from the Pacers. They were diving for balls right up until the closing seconds. Since dropping their home opener, the Pacers have played great here, winning five straight. While the Bucks are indeed a tough team, they're only 2-4 ATS as road favorites. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Seahawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off to an 0-2 start, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood. This is an experienced and talented Davidson team, one with big expectations on the season. This has been a good role for the Wildcats over the years. They're 16-8-2 ATS (25-1 SU) the past 26 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark their last three in that role. Even better, during that span, the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 ATS if they'd scored 25 or fewer points in the first half of their previous game. The Wildcats won by 27, as -11 point favorites, the last time these teams met here. Expect another blowout.

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Blazers got 60 from Lillard last time out but still lost. They're going to be in an angry mood here and they'll provide Lillard with a lot more support. The Hawks have lost b2b games and four of their last five. All the losses came by a minimum of nine points. The Blazers have beaten the Hawks each of the last three meetings. They won those games by 20, 9 and 21 points. The Blazers know they need to take advantage of this very winnable game. Their next game is on the road, then they host the defending champs, then they go on a lengthy road trip. In other words, winning here is critical. Expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win.

I'm playing on SEATTLE. When these instate rivals met last season, the Redhawks hammered the Eagles by an 88-68 margin. Two seasons ago, Seattle won by a similar margin, 84-65. If they can stay healthy, the Eagles should have a good season in the Big Sky. However, they're still not ready to knock off Seattle. Note that Eastern Washington was 1-9 in non-conf. play last season. Seattle, on the other hand, was 10-4 in non-conf. action, outscoring teams by a 78.4 to 68.9 ppg. The Redhawks are going to be in an angry mood after getting blown out at Washington State. Needless to say, this is a significant step down in class. Having faced the Cougars intense defense should serve them well. The Redhawks, who returned four starters from last season, know that they've got a brutal non-conf. schedule and that they can't afford to squander this opportunity. The Redhawks, 31-9 their last 40 at home, are 3-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after a road loss of 20 or more points. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs got back on track, snapping a 2-game slide with a solid 121-112 win over OKC, last time out. I feel that they're catching the Celtics at the right time and I look for the Spurs to carry the momentum of their victory over the Thunder into today's game. The Spurs handled the Celtics last season winning 115-96 and 120-111. They're 72-20 here the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, Boston is 55-43 on the road. The Celtics are off an emotional win against Kemba Walker's old team and are now playing the final game of a road trip. They're just 6-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off b2b road wins. I'm going with the Spurs. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Heat have gotten off to a great start but I expect them to stumble at this difficult venue. Note that the Heat are an ugly 5-13-2 ATS the past 20 times that they were coming off a double-digit home win, just 1-6-2 ATS if that win came by 20 or more. Also, note that Miami's hot start has helped to keep this line a lot more reasonable than it could have otherwise been. Including a 103-87 blowout of the Heat here last season, a game where they were laying -9.5 points, the Nuggets are 66-17 SU as a home favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Both these teams are young. However, the Bonnies' young players are a lot more talented and have a lot more experience. While the Bobcats return just one starter, St. Bonaventure returns a trio of starting sophomores and will have a big edge in the backcourt.  Note that the Bobcats are 7-16-1 ATS (4-20 SU) as road underdogs the past couple of seasons while the Bonnies were 13-7 ATS (18-2 SU).

Coach Schmidt said this of his Bonnies: "... confidence is a big factor for these guys. Getting off to a good start is paramount … " The Bobcats will provide the Bonnies with the perfect opportunity for that good start. Expect Schmidt's team to make the most of it, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and pulling away for a blowout win. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Rockets have been terrible at the betting window so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. While the Grizzlies had Sunday off, the Rockets are off a game at Miami. They gave up 46 points in the first quarter alone in that one. The Rockets are the end of a road trip. All three games here at Memphis have been decided by single digits. Speaking of close games, the Rockets' last visit here resulted in a 1-point game. In what figures to be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Great start for the Suns, obviously. However, I don't believe this young team is quite ready to be laying points on the road. Even with the recent win in SF, the Suns are still just 19-65 on the road the past 2+ seasons. Its hard to win away from home. Note that the Suns are 1-6 the last seven times that they were off a double-digit win as an underdog. The Grizzlies beat Brooklyn their last game on this floor and they're coming in confident that this is a matchup they can win. The last meeting here resulted in a 117-96 win for the Grizzlies. Expect them to score the 'upset' here. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The home team has won six straight in this series. The last three games played here in San Antonio saw the Spurs win by scores of 108-103, 131-118 and 116-105. For this one, not only do they have the venue in their favor but the Spurs also have the schedule in their favor. While they had Sunday off, the Blazers played at Dallas. Knowing they hit the road after this, look for the Spurs to take care of business on their home floor here, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves are off a hot (2-0) start and this game sets up very nicely for them. While Minnesota had yesterday off, Miami is off an OT win at Milwaukee. I say that OT game catches up with them here, against a Minnesota team playing its home opener. Note that the Heat are just 15-25-3 ATS over the past couple of seasons, when off two or more consecutive ATS wins. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Wolves to improve to 9-5 ATS the last 14 times that they were coming off a double-digit road win. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the champs in their opening game. However, I expect them to face a tougher test here. Off a road loss at Philly, the Celtics are going to be extremely hungry to win their home opener. History says they'll have a great shot at this series has been dominated by the home team in recent years. The Raptors have won eight straight meetings, at Toronto. Meanwhile, the Celtics have beaten the Raptors five straight times, here at Boston. Those wins came by an average of 6.5 points. Wednesday's loss notwithstanding, the Celtics have been strong in divisional games overall. Look for them to improve to 9-3 SU the last 12 times that they were off a divisional loss, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. What is the world coming to? The Clippers are favored, on the road, against the Warriors. That is indeed the state of the union, in case you haven't been paying attention. Kawhi's debut was everything the Clipper fans were hoping for. Clearly, he's a special player and this is a talented team. That said, they're not going to win every game. Curry, Green and co. are playing on their home floor and they've got payback (against Kawhi) on their minds. They're going to be highly determined to start the season with a win and get rid of the bad taste in their mouths from last year's finals. True, Durant has moved on. Remember, they won a title without him. True, Klay is out. Paul George is out for LA though, too. The addition of D'Angelo Russel (29 points in 28 mins in final preseason game) is not insignificant. Playing on their homecourt, I say the defending Western Conf. champs get it done. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. By the end of recent years, even die-hard Phoenix fans start losing faith. However, every season brings new hope. I like the offseason moves that the Suns made and the building is going be full of electricity. Booker is dealing with a minor finger issue but says he's fine and has been shooting normally. I expect him to be the best player on the floor. The Suns beat the Kings 115-111 the last time these teams faced each other on this floor and they've taken two of the last three meetings here. Booker didn't even play in that 115-111 win. Instead, the Suns got huge games from Oubre and Ayton, both still with the team. Oubre had 26 points in that game including a 1-handed rebound jam with about 10 seconds to play. Ayton had 17 points and 12 boards. The Kings committed a season-high 26 turnovers. You look at the Suns' projected starting lineup (Rubio, Oubre, Booker, Saric, Ayton) with guys like Frank Kaminsky coming off the bench and there's more talent there than many realize. Expect them to start the season with a victory. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors are champs but feel that they aren't getting any respect. With Kawhi having moved on, few are giving them a chance of repeating. However, as Lowry stated, " “We know what we've accomplished. Who cares what other people think." I believe that the champs are going to be a on a mission to silence the critics. They're 7-1 their last eight against the Pelicans, most recently a 127-104 win last March. Motivated to show the world that they were/are more than Kawhi, I expect them to start the season with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I've stated several times that the Raptors rarely do anything easily. They had a chance to close out the series in Game 5 but didn't. Having missed that opportunity, I fully expect this series to go the distance. The Warriors are now 14-6 ATS their last 20 when trailing in a playoff series, 8-3 ATS when facing elimination. While the champs won't have Durant, they do have Curry and Thompson now firing on all cylinders. They didn't have Thompson for the first of the two previous home games and he was still in his first game back for the second. Cousins, too, has found his form. Kerr had this to say of his volatile center: "I thought DeMarcus was fantastic tonight. He stayed ready. He didn’t get the first call for that second-quarter run. We went to [Andrew Bogut] and then with the injury we knew we needed his scoring and he stayed ready and played a brilliant game. I'm so happy for him and he's been through an awful lot himself over the last year plus his own injuries." The Warriors are 9-2 SU/ATS their last 11 when playing a Game 6. Momentum back in their corner, expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. While Durant has been ruled out, the Warriors are expecting to get Thompson back. Needless to say, that'll be a big help. After the Warriors lost Game 1, I played on them in Game 2. At the time, I said that the "Raptors rarely do anything easily." Expect them to have their hands full with the desperate champs tonight. The Raptors aren't likely to get another massive performance (6-3-pointers) from Danny Green. The Warriors know that they can't afford to lose this one. They're going to be playing with extreme intensity right from the opening tipoff. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs had a very long layoff before Game 1. So, its not surprising that they were a bit rusty. That won't be an issue in Game 2 though. Down a game, we're going to see the Warriors' very best. The Raptors have been impressive in these playoffs. However, they rarely do anything the 'easy' way. Off a big win in Game 1, we can expect them to have their hands full in this one. Kawhai has been outstanding throughout the playoffs but he's battling a nagging injury and was noticably hobbling at times in Game 1. Siakam was the difference in Game 1. However, with the Warriors adjusting (probably a lot more Green on him) he's highly unlikely to match that effort in Game 2. The Warriors are 32-11 SU their last 43 when off a road loss. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After dominating the Pistons and the Celtics, perhaps the Bucks weren't quite ready for the type of street-fight that the Raptors were going to give them. I still think they're the more talented team though and they've had five games to get used to the Raptors intensity. Facing elimination for the first time, I expect Antekoumpo and co. to be at their very best. The Bucks did win here back in January, so they know that they can win in this building. They held Toronto to just 92 points in that game. The Raptors got a huge game from Van Fleet on Thursday; thats unlikely to happen again. Brogdon moved back into the starting lineup in Game 5. Thats a big help for Giannis as it gives them another ball handler. Bledsoe had been playing poorly on offense but was better in Game 5, scoring 20 points. A week ago, everyone was counting out the Raptors and I said not to do so. Now, I'm saying, don't count out the Bucks. This series is going the distance. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully backed the Raptors in both their wins at Toronto. So, I'm not at all surprised that the series is tied. That said, playing at home, I expect the Bucks to take this pivotal game. The Bucks earned the right to play Game 5 (and Game 7, if necessary) here at Milwaukee by being the best team all season. Even off their Game 4 loss, they're still 22-2 SU and 19-5 ATS when off a loss. Prior to their current 2-game skid, they'd only lost twice in a row once all season. Off that previous 2-game skid, they responded with a 19-point win over Indiana, holding the Pacers to 98 points. They're 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) after having lost two of their last three. The Raptors are an exhausted team as they fought a lot harder to get here than Milwaukee did and as they're starters are logging heavy minutes. The home crowd in Toronto helped provide energy but they won't have that going for them here. The Bucks won the first two games here by eight and 22 points. Expect more of the same Thursday. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Raptors in Game 3 and I'm coming right back with them in Game 4. In Game 3, the Raptors were favored. Now, we're getting them as underdogs. While I do expect an outright win, that's definitely some added value. Yes, I'm aware that Milwaukee was great off a loss in the regular season. However, this is a whole different situation. The Bucks had their chance to knock the Raptors out. If they'd won on Sunday and went up 3-0, the series was finished. They probably would have go on to sweep and that would have likely ended the Kawai ere in Toronto. That didn't happen though and the resilient Raptors now have life and momentum. They did an amazing job on Antetokounmpo, as he was 5-16 before fouling out. Losing Lowry, who fouled out in the fourth, was a huge blow for the Raptors, particularly on a night where guys like Green and Van Fleet were really struggling with their shot. To survive that and win without Lowry is going to be really good for this team. I expect Kawai and Lowry to get more help from their secondary players in this one, leading to another Raptors win.

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors embarrassed themselves in Game 2. Back home, I expect an extremely determined effort on Sunday. This is a battle-tested Toronto team. It wasn't long ago that the Raptors were off their huge Game 7 win against Philly. Then, they almost stole Game 1 of this series. One bad game doesn't make them a bad team. The Raptors have still won five of six (and eight of their last 10) here at home. The Raptors are also a perfect 4-0 SU when off a road loss of 20 or more points, 1-0 SU/ATS in these playoffs. They still believe that they can win this series. While that remains to be seen, I fully expect them to take Game 3, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Warriors have treated me well since Durant went down. I won with them in their Game 6 close-out victory at Houston. (I also won with them in Game 1 of this series. Last game, I won with the total and didn't play the side.) Tonight, however, I expect Durant's absence to finally catch up with them. The Blazers have been a very resilient team these entire playoffs and they're not going to go down without a fight. With the Game 2 cover, the Blazers are 3-0 ATS when trailing in these playoffs. They're also 33-23 ATS (45-11 SU) when they were favored. Additionally, they're 5-1 SU/ATS off two or more consecutive road lossses. While the Warriors are a very solid 31-16 on the road, the Blazers are an even better 37-10 here at home. They beat the Warriors by 22 points the last meeting here. Expect them to play with desperation and for them to finish on top once again.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. As you likely saw, the Raptors are off a thrilling Game 7 win against the 76ers. That was an extremely hard-fought and emotional series and I feel that the Raptors may experience a slight letdown in Wednesday's series opener with the Bucks. Unlike Toronto, Milwaukee is very well rested. The Bucks have been winning big these entire playoffs. They're 8-1 SU/ATS overall. All eight victories came by a minimum of seven points. Seven came by double-digits. The Bucks took three of four regular season meetings, two of their three wins coming by double-digits. Catching the Raptors off perhaps their biggest win in franchise history, I like the Bucks to pull away for another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As of this writing, Durant remains doubtful for this game. However, his absence didn't stop me from successfully backing the champs in their Game 6 win at Houston and it won't keep me from backing them here. That Game 6 victory was huge for the Warriors. Not only did they prove again that they could win without KD but it also gave them some extra time to rest, recover and prepare for Portland. Thats a luxury which the Blazers don't have, as they're fresh off a gritty Game 7 win at Denver on Sunday afternoon. That series was extremely hard-fought and I feel that it will take a toll on the Blazers. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by double-digits. I expect the combination of the extra rest and homecourt advantage to prove the difference, Curry and co. pulling away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Obviously, the loss of Durant is a huge blow. Prior to the injury, he was on track to being the playoff MVP. That said, the Warriors are still fully capable of winning without him. Thompson finally got going last game. Curry started slow but also got going when they needed him. Don't forget that Green (and perhaps others) would love to show that they don't need Durant to win. You may recall Green previously saying something along the lines of this to Durant: "You're a b***h and you know you’re a b***h ... We don't need you. We won without you. Leave." Eight straight meetings between these teams have been decided by six or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Raptors were dominant in Game 5, I expect the 76ers to bounce back big in Game 6. The Raptors are just 12-16-1 ATS as road favorites. That includes a 4-9-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or fewer points. Its also worth noting that Toronto is just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times it was off a home win vs. a divisional opponent. While the Raptors have a fairly impressive 29-16 record on the road overall, the 76ers are a much better 34-12 at home. They're 30-16 ATS the past 2+ seasons as home underdogs, 19-11 ATS as home underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 10-3-1 ATS after scoring 90 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the 76ers are 13-4 ATS their last 17, when off a road loss against a divisional opponent. That includes a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark their last six in that situation. Expect Philly to bounce back, sending the series back to Toronto for Game 7. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I won with the Rockets in Game 3 and Game 4. I backed them in Game 3 as I really didn't expect them to just roll over. Off the OT win in Game 3, I liked their momentum for Game 4. However, we're back at Oracle now and I expect the champs to remind everyone that they're still the best in the West. The Rockets are 23-22 away from Houston. The Warriors are 31-13 at home. The Warriors are 3-1 ATS their last four, when tied in a playoff series. They're also 5-2 ATS their last seven (6-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge - 2 straight losses against the same opponent. Expect a statement victory. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets played the Warriors tough at Oracle, losing by four and six points. Back on their home floor, desperate for a win, I expect them to break through with a win and cover. While the Warriors are an excellent 30-14 on the road, the Rockets are an even better 34-10 at home. The Warriors haven't missed Cousins yet but I expect his absence to be felt here. The Rockets beat the Jazz by 59 combined points in the three games here in the first round. While they've now lost their last three against the champs, the Rockets are 5-1 SU/ATS their last six, when facing a team which has defeated them in the previous three meetings. They're 8-1-1 ATS (9-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge, going 25-10-2 ATS (30-7 SU) in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to elevate their level of play en route to a critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Bucks in Game 2 (after nailing the Under in Game 1) and I'm coming right back with them again on Friday. While the Celtics are surely happy to be home, the Bucks have no problem playing on the road. In fact, they're 29-14 (26-15-2 ATS) when playing away from Milwaukee. The Bucks have no problem playing here at Boston, either. Their last visit here resulted in a 120-107 victory. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs. The Celtics, who got blown out in Game 2, are just 5-15 ATS when off a road loss. That includes a 1-6 ATS mark when off a double-digit road loss. The Bucks made the necessary adjustments after the opener and Antetokounmpo returned to his usual self (29/10) in Game 2. The Celtics aren't going to have any answer for him here. I'll grab the points but expect the Bucks to win outright. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While I won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series, I'm backing the Bucks in Game 2. The Celtics did an excellent job of slowing down Antetokounmpo in the opener. Obviously, that was great for me. Don't expect the Greek Freak to stay silent though. Giannis has been a monster all year and is off a first round series which saw him average 26.3 ppg and 12 rebounds, while also adding 3.5 assists and 1.5 blocks. Those stats would have even been better if the Bucks didn't win those games by such a wide margin. The Bucks have been amazing at bouncing back from losses all season long. They're 21-1 SU and 18-4 ATS off a loss. The only time that they lost two in a row all season was when they were right at the end of a road trip. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when off a double-digit loss and a 15-3 ATS mark when off an upset loss overall. With the Celtics just 7-13 ATS after playing two or more consecutive road games, look for Giannis and the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments, leading them to a convincing win and cover for Game 2. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I'm well aware that the Raptors have historically fared very well at home against the 76ers. However, thats not enough to prevent me from backing Philly in Game 2. The 76ers have arguably as much talent as any team in the league. After dropping Game 1, I expect their stars to rise to the occasion here. The 76ers also dropped Game 1 of their opening series. They won Game 2 by more than 20, putting up a whopping 145 points. Even with their victory on Saturday, the Raptors are still just 2-6-1 ATS (1-8 SU!) their last nine second round playoff games. While the Raptors are 4-7 ATS off a divisional win and 2-5 ATS off a home divisional win, the 76ers are 8-1 ATS their last nine off a divisional loss, a perfect 5-0 ATS off a divisonal road loss. While an outright upset won't surprise, I'm grabbing the points!

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Since the Clippers came back to shock them in Game 2, the champs have been on a mission. They won Game 3 and Game 4 by a combined 35 points. With a chance to close out the series here, I expect them to be all business right from the opening tip. Despite blowing the cover in Game 4, the Warriors remain a dominant 29-12 ATS (30-11 SU) their last 41 first round playoff games. In other words, when they win in the first round, they almost always cover. The Clippers are just 6-10 ATS off a home loss. Going back further finds them at an ugly 19-29 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. The Warriors won Game 1 here by 17. Before their meltdown in Game 2, they were on pace for another decisive win and cover. That meltdown will ensure that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Expect them to advance to the next round in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. Needless to say, Milwaukee has dominated this series. That said, I don't expect Detroit to just quit and feel that this line is too high. Down 3-0, we saw the Pacers battle until the end against Boston yesterday. The Celtics won by four. The Pistons will also fight hard the entire way. The Pistons are still 26-16 on this floor, not much different from Milwaukee's 28-14 road record. Griffin returned in Game 3 and played well; he just didn't get much help. Coach Casey commented: "That young man is giving us everything he has. He said he was feeling good. I was concerned about his conditioning with as much time as he's missed. You can't really simulate 5-on-5 basketball when you're rehabbing. But he came in and gave us what he could. He just has a presence that we can't replicate." While the Bucks did win the last one here by 16, the two regular season games here were decided by 10 and three points. Expect this one to be closer, the Pistons not making it easy and ultimately covering the generous number. 

I'm playing on UTAH. After dropping both games at Houston, the Jazz have now lost four of their last five overall. However, a closer look reveals that all four of those losses came on the road. The lone home game resulted in a double-digit win over Denver. Indeed, this team is much better on its home floor. While the Rockets are 22-19 on the road, the Jazz are 29-12 at home. Note that they're also 5-1 SU/ATS after having lost four of their previous five. Both Utah's losses at Houston came by 20 or more points. Thats only happened twice the past 2+ seasons, situations where the Jazz were off b2b losses of 20 or more. In both cases, they won and covered their next one. Overall, they're 11-6 ATS off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Saturday. 

I'm playing on OKC. The Blazers took both games at Portland. Playing at home, desperate for a win, I expect the Thunder to respond with their best effort in Game 3. Note that they're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off b2b losses against a divisional opponent. While the Blazers are very tough to beat at home, they're mediocre on the road. They're also 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +6.5 +12 range. The Thunder are 27-14 at home. They won both regular season meetings here. Scores were 120-111 and 123-114. When Nurkic went down a few weeks ago, it was a big blow to the Blazers, as he'd been playing great. To their credit, the Blazers haven't missed a beat. Kanter has proven to be a key pickup. That said, I feel that the Nurkic loss will eventually catch up with them and I say that happens here. Expect Adams to get the better of Kanter, his former teammate, the rest of the Thunder digging deep and improving to 11-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Spurs scored the upset in Game 1. Don't expect it to happen again here. The Nuggets remain a dominant 34-8 here at home. The Spurs are still 17-25 on the road. The Nuggets, 7-1 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games, are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS after failing to cover in three or more in a row. Jokic is unstoppable. Though he got a triple-double in Game 1, he was often getting double-teamed and forced to pass. It didn't help that the Nuggets as a team shot terribly from the outside, hitting 21% from beyond the arc. Thats not going to happen again though; they normally hit 35% of their 3-point shots. They normally average 113.7 ppg here. (The Spurs normally allow 113.6 ppg on the road.) If and when they double-team Jokic, he'll continue to find the open man and the Nuggets will start connecting. They beat the Spurs by a score of 113-85 here a couple of weeks ago, hitting 36.4% of their shots from outside in that one. They're 11-5 ATS as home favorites of six points or less. I'm expecting a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Off their Game 1 loss, expect the 76ers to be all business in Game 2. While the Nets are still 20-22 on the road, the 76ers are 31-11 at home. Even off the Game 1 loss, the 76ers are 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. They're still 4-2 ATS their last six first round playoff games. The Nets have already accomplished what they wanted, stealing a game on the road. The 76ers have bounced back and earned a double-digit win off each of their last two defeats. Expect more of the same on Monday. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons closed out the reg. season by beating Memphis in their home finale and then hammering the Knicks, at MSG, in their road finale. That's noteworthy as they're 10-4 ATS off a road win and 4-1 ATS off a double-digit road win, a perfect 3-0 ATS when off a road win by 20 or more. The Bucks did indeed win all the regular season meetings. However, none of those lines were nearly as large as this one. Note that two of the games were decided by 10 or less. Note that the Pistons are also 7-3 ATS when facing a team which defeated them in three or more straight meetings. The Bucks are just 3-11-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. A look at Milwaukee's last seven games shows a 4-3 record with all four wins coming by 10 or less. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs coasted through the regular season but I expect them to be all business now that the playoffs are here. While they rested regulars down the stretch, the Warriors are healthy. It took awhile but Cousins finally got rolling towards the end of the season. Adding him to the mix, to go along with Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green and co. give them an element - a center who can contribute offensively - that they never really had before. Looking back over the years finds that the Warriors are 27-10 ATS in the first round of the playoffs and 13-7-1 ATS in the first game of a playoff series. The Warriors beat the Clippers by 27 points less than a week ago. I'm expecting them to start the series with another convincing victory. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs have been winning but not covering. Thats got the line down a lot from what it would have been, to the point where a win will now very likely also result in a cover. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Note that the Cavs are 78-12 SU their last 90 as favorites while the Red Raiders are 10-17 SU their last 27 as underdogs. Many will only remember that the Cavs needed to hit three free throws in the final second to advance. They'll forget that they played a great game until the final five minutes though. I believe the close wins are going to serve them well here. While the Red Raiders are on a great run, they haven't faced a defense like the one they'll face here. After last year's first round debacle, the Cavs come all the way back and win the title. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met at Denver a couple of days ago. The Nuggets won that one, which clinched the division title for them. That was a pretty huge accomplishment for them and should have them in letdown mode here. The fact that Jokic (and potentially others) are getting the night off is huge. Murray and/or Millsap may also get the night off. Note that those three players had a combined 70 points and 24 boards on Friday. Unlike the Nuggets, the Blazers still need wins, in order to help secure homecourt advantage. The revenge-minded Blazers are 4-1 ATS their last five, when off a division road loss. Expect them to get some payback tonight. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. With wins over Kansas, UNC and Kentucky, Auburn has certainly taken down some giants, winning a lot of fans in the process. The Tigers haven't faced a team like this one though and I absolutely expect their magical run to come to an end. Auburn, of course, wants to keep going. However, the Tigers have already achieved more than they could have dreamed. The tournament is a success for them, no matter what happens here. Virginia, on the other hand, will not be at all satisfied if it doesnt win this game. While one could argue that puts more pressure on the Cavs, in my opinion, its going to make them that much more focused. There's no letdown for them. This is a team on a mission, out to completely wipe last year's first round debacle from the record books. The Cavs allow just 55 ppg. Before going to OT vs. Purdue, they'd held all three tournament opponents to 56 or fewer points. Expect their dominant defense to be the difference, the Cavs punching their ticket to the Finals while providing us the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils may be a little fortunate to be here but that doesn't mean that they're not a dominant team. Duke beat MSU by seven in 2017 and by nine in 2016. You might be surprised to learn that the Spartans are just 11-23 ATS their last 34 as underdogs of three points or less, when playing away from home. Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU (7-3 ATS) this season, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s. The Blue Devils are also 30-4 SU when favored this season. Expect the combination of Williamson and Barrett to prove to be too much for the Spartans, the Blue Devils improving on those stats while covering the small number along the way.