I'm playing the Cavs for the first half 10* FIRST HALF GAME OF YEAR. After they blew a big lead and lost the previous game outright, the Cavs came out sluggishly in the first half of the last game. At the break, they found themselves trailing by double-digits. They finally "woke up" though and won the second half by 23 points. This being an elimination game, knowing the Warriors are already waiting for them, I expect Lebron and co. to smell the blood in the water. Trying to break Boston's will early, look for them to bring the same type of intensity they showed in the second half of the last game to the opening tip tonight. The Cavs were up by scores of 61-39 and 72-31 at the break in the first two games here. I expect them to have a healthy lead at the break once again. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. Obviously, the Cavs are playing very well. Off that dominant effort in Game 1, many have already written this series off. While it will indeed be difficult to win the series, I'm not writing the Celtics off quite yet. Not for tonight, at least. This is still a team which is 35-14 at home. Meanwhile, the Cavs are still just 25-21 on the road. The Celtics are a profitable 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* BEST BET. After the first five games were all decided by "double-digits," the last game was decided by a single point. With everything on the line between two evenly matched teams, I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire. The fact that the teams had the weekend off figures to work in Washington's favor. The Celtics are just 6-11 ATS (7-10 SU) when playing with two day's rest this season. Thats pretty bad, considering how strong their overall record was. On the other hand, the Wizards are 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) when doing so. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GS 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Spurs sure looked impressive in their Game 6 win at Houston. They're obviously extremely well-coached and not to be taken lightly. That said, I believe that the Warriors are playing at another level. They have yet to lose this postseason. All but one of their victories has come by double-digits. The Spurs have only lost twice in May. However, both of those losses came by more than 20 points. So, when they do lose, they've shown that they can "lose big." Note that the Spurs are 5-9 ATS off two day's rest and 2-4 ATS when coming off an "upset" win. All three of this season's regular season meetings were decided by a minimum of 12 points, two of those decided by 20 or more. I expect the Warriors to deliver another convincing victory on Sunday. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. Since stealing Game 1, the Rockets have dropped two in a row. That essentially makes this a must win game for them and I expect them to respond with their very best effort. While the Spurs are just 2-3 SU/ATS off an upset win, the Rockets are 11-6-1 ATS and 14-4 SU, when off an upset loss. They're also 9-3-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect them to even the series, picking up the cover along the way.

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* BEST BET. After dropping the first two games at Cleveland, the Raptors are in "must win" territory. With Lowry, who did not participate in morning shootaround, a gametime decision, not many are giving the Raptors much of a chance here. With or without Lowry, I expect a determined Raptor team to come ready to play. You may recall that the Raptors lost both the first games at Cleveland pretty badly in last season's playoffs, too. For Game 3, the Cavs were -5.5 point favorites. Yet, the Raptors scored an 99-84 upset. This team, now with Ibaka, is every bit as capable as last year's team and they're not going to go down without a fight. While the Cavs are 22-21 on the road, the Cavs are 30-14 at home. While I feel that they've got a great shot at the upset, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GS 10* PERS FAV. The Jazz eked out a cover in Game 1, losing by 12. While the line has come down slightly for Game 2, I don't expect the Jazz to be so fortunate tonight. This playoff-tested team is already 3-0 ATS when leading in a series. After winning by "only" 12 in the opener against the Blazers, the line also came down a little for Game 2 of that series. Yet, the Warriors won Game 2 by 29 points, their biggest blowout of the playoffs. The Jazz may give them a tougher challenge in Utah but I don't see it happening here tonight. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO 10* PERS FAV. After getting embarrassed last time out, the Spurs figure to be much better in Game 2. They've already lost home court advantage and know they can ill afford to stumble again. The Spurs are 12-8-1 ATS (15-6 SU) off an "upset loss" this season and they're 5-2 SU/ATS when playing with "home revenge." On the other hand, the Rockets were just 2-5 ATS off an "upset win." Expect the Spurs to want this one more and for that to ultimately lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* BEST BET. I won with the Cavs in the opener. However, I expect the Raptors to put up a much better fight tonight. The Raptors won seven of 10 games this season, when off a double-digit loss. They were blown out by the Bucks twice in the first round and each time they answered with an outright win. Some might be suprised to learn that the Raptors have been superior defensively to the Cavs this season. The Raptors allow 102.2 ppg (101.6 on the road) while the Cavs allow 107.2. Opposing teams hit 45.8% of their fg's against the Cavs but 44.9% against Toronto. Even with the Game 1 result, the Raptors are still 19-6 SU their last 25 against teams which allow 106 or more ppg. Expect them to give the Cavs all they can handle here. 

I'm playing on GS 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Jazz are just off a very taxing and emotional series. The Warriors had a relatively easy time with Portland and have had plenty of rest. I expect that to work in their favor on Tuesday night. One might expect the Jazz to fare well as big underdogs. However, that hasn't been the case. Not in recent seasons, at least. In fact, the Jazz are 0-6 SU/ATS as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points the past couple of seasons. That includes a 30-point loss here on 12/20. While the Jazz did score the upset here on 4/10, the Warriors are a dominating 38-19 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. They've won their playoff home games by an average of more than 20 points and I expect another blowout here. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* MAIN EVENT. In what should be a good series, I expect the Cavs to come out swinging. While the Cavs swept the Pacers, the Raptors showed some vulnerability in the opening round, losing a pair of games by double-digits. While some teams don't perform well after a long layoff, the Cavs haven't been one of them. They were 2-0 SU/ATS this season, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Each win came by double-digits. They returned from a long break in February and delivered a 15-point win over the Knicks. Earlier, after a break in November, they blew out the Blazers by a dozen points. Expect homecourt to be the difference, James and co. drawing first blood with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on LA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Jazz had their opportunity to win this series. They're a much better team at Utah and all they needed to do was win their last game there. Having squandered that opportunity, I expect them to stumble against a determined LA team. Paul and co. showed their resolve last game, digging deep for the win. They come in with positive momentum and are going to be buoyed by the excited home crowd. While the Jazz are only 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times that they were off an upset loss, the Clippers are 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) off an upset win. LA wins, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. I won with the Raptors last game. Playing at home, the playoff-tested Raptors dominated from wire-to-wire. This is a Toronto team which rarely does things easily though. More often than not, it seems, the Raptors end up going to seven games. You may recall them winning in Game 5 of the playoffs last season against both the Pacers and the Heat, only to then go on to lose Game 6. (They'd ultimately lose Game 6 against the Cavs, too.) The last time they returned home, off a loss at Toronto, the Bucks responded with a 27-point victory. Don't count them out yet.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Warriors have looked very strong. They're going to be tough for anyone to beat in a series. That doesn't mean the Blazers can't give them all they can handle here though. In fact, I expect them to do just that. Everyone has written this series off and the Game 4 lines has gotten generously high, as a result. The Blazers have played the Warriors tough here. They've only lost by more than seven points once, the last six times that they hosted the Warriors. I don't believe they're going down without a fight and I expect them to improve to 8-4 ATS their last 12, after three ore more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. After a shaky start, the Raptors have regained home court advantage in the series. I expect them to carry the positive momentum back home with them. While the Bucks are 5-8 SU/ATS off an "upset" loss, the Raptors are 6-2 SU/ATS off an "upset" win. This line is a little lower than it was for either of the first two games here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Raptors are 29-14 on this floor while the Bucks are just 20-23 on the road. The Bucks average 101 ppg on the road, the Raptors average 110 ppg at home. In a pivotal game, expect homecourt and the Raptors' recent postseason experience to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10* PERS FAV. Given the situation, I feel that we're getting the Jazz at a bargain. Griffin is out for the playoffs. True, the Clippers are used to dealing with adversity and playing without Griffin and/or Paul. Still, its a major blow and their chances of advancing deep into the playoffs took a serious hit. Even with Griffin in the lineup, it was going to be tough to beat the Jazz here, in what is essentially a must-win game. The Jazz, now 29-13 at home overall, are 37-16-3 ATS the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge a home loss. The Clippers, 23-19 on the road, are only 2-6 SU the last eight time they were leading in a playoff series, 7-15 SU their last 22 in that situation. Expect the Jazz to bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. I lost with the Thunder in their last game. Laying -2.5 points, they won by two. The non-cover notwithstanding, it was a solid effort, one which got them back the series. I look for the Thunder to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Now 3-1 ATS their last four when trailing in a playoff series, the Thunder are also 11-6 ATS (12-5 SU) this season, after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game. While the Rockets, 2-7 ATS overall in April, are a solid 25-17 on the road, the Thunder are a superior 29-13 here at home. The pointspread should be a non-factor this time and I expect the Thunder to finish on top.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Hawks were relatively close in both games at Washington. The Wizards are tough to beat at home though and ultimiately prevailed. Washington won by eight points and seven points. While they're now 32-11 at home, the Wizards are only 19-22 on the road. Meanwhile, while the Hawks are now 20-23 on the road, they're 23-18 here at Atlanta. Expect the change of venue and home crowd to provide the Hawks with some life, enough to cover the small number. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* PERS FAV. The Thunder played much better in Game 2 but it wasn't quite enough. Down 0-2 and now moving to their homecourt, I expect an even better effort in Game 3. While the Rockets were a solid 25-16 on the road, the Thunder were an impressive 28-13 at home. With the cover in Game 2, the Thunder are now 16-9-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were trailing in a playoff series, 3-0 ATS their last three in situation. They were 31-18-1 ATS (36-14 SU) when laying points this season. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* BEST BET. Down a game, I expect Westbrook and co. to respond with a huge effort in Game 2. While the Thunder are 4-1 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, the Rockets are 4-6 ATS when doing so. The Thunder are 13-8 ATS off a double-digit loss. The Rockets are 12-18 ATS off a double-digit loss. Prior to Game 1, the Rockets had gone nine straight games without winning by more than seven points. Look for a determined Thunder team to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* PERS FAV. I'm not writing the Celtics off yet. While Thomas personally played well, perhaps the tragic passing of his sister had an effect on his teammates. Either way, I don't expect it to be the case here. This is a team that worked too hard, all season long, to just go down meekly in the first round. They're deep, talented and well-coached. The Bulls have been inconsistent on the road all season and they're only 16-30-1 (19-28 SU) the past 2+ seasons, off an upset win. Expect the Celtics to bounce back with a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. The Bucks scored the upset in the opener. With their backs to the wall, I expect this well-coach and battle-tested Raptor team to respond with its best game. The Raptors, 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) when playing with two day's rest, are 10-7 ATS off an upset loss. The Bucks may have put together an excellent defensive performance in the opener but they're just 6-18-1 ATS (7-18 SU) the past 25 times that they held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points. Expect the Raptors to bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. The Pacers had a great chance of stealing Game 1. Having failed to capitalize, I don't think they'll get another opportunity like that in Game 2. The Cavs have had their "wake-up call" and I expect them to be all business here. While the Pacers are now 13-29 on the road, the Cavs are now 32-10 at home. Throw in the fact that the Cavs are 11-7 ATS (15-3 SU) the last 18 times that they were leading in a playoff series and I'm expecting a big win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I'm hearing and reading a lot about how/why the Bulls have a chance at winning this series. I'm not buying it. In my opinion, given how strong they've been here this season, the Celtics could easily be favored by more. Including a 20-point win over the Bulls here on 3/12, they're 31-12 here on the season. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just 16-25 on the road. The Celtics are deep. They're well-coached. They're the #1 seed for a reason. Expect a statement game, the Celtics serving notice that they're the real deal. 

*After this play was released, Isaiah Thomas' sister (Chyna Thomas) passed away after being involved in a car accident. First off, deepest sypmathies to the Thomas family. As for this play, as of now, its unknown whether or not Thomas will play. Obviously, he's a huge part of this team. So, if he feels its the right thing to do do, hopefully he decides to play through the pain. However, I referenced the Celtics' depth in my writeup for good reason. Should Thomas elect not to play, I believe this team is fully capable of rising to the occasion with a big win. Either way, I still expect a win and cover. 

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. The Clippers battled hard to earn homecourt for this matchup and I expect them to make the most of it this evening. The Clippers took three of four meetings with the Jazz this season. They won both games here at LA by double-digits. The Cippers, who have won seven straight overall, are 14-6 ATS their last 20 against teams with a winning record. They finished 29-12 here at home. The Jazz, who were just 22-19 on the road, were only 6-15-1 ATS, when getting points this season. While the Jazz were 3-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest, the Clippers were 7-4 ATS when doing so. Expect homecourt to be the difference. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* BEST BET. The Spurs are obviously a very good and extremely well-coached team. However, sometimes it can be hard to just "turn it on" after not playing well for a long time. The Spurs, 3-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are only 4-5 SU their last nine games and only one of those nine games resulted in a win of greater than six points. The Grizzlies won't be intimidated. They took two of four regular season meetings with the Spurs and both their losses came by seven or fewer points. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF MONTH. I expect this game to mean more to the T-Wolves. The Thunder, who are locked into the 6th seed, rallied to deliver a knockout blow to the Nuggets in their last game. That game actually meant something though, as Denver was still mathematically alive against the Blazers for the 8th spot. They'll face those same Nuggets, at OKC, again tomorrow to close out the regular season. Tonight's game really doesn't mean much though. Its a road game against a team which is playing only for pride. Westbrook has already set the triple-double record. They already know they'll play the Rockets. (We saw what happened to them in a "meaningless road game" last night.) The T-Wolves, on the other hand, are playing their regular season home finale. A win here will reward the home fans for staying with them through a tough season. I believe they're going to be motivated to deliver that win. Note that they beat the Thunder by 10 in the last meeting here. Expect them to win and cover once again, improving to 10-6 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses. *GOM

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. There are a number of factors that favor the Clippers in this one. For starters, they're playing at home, where they are a much better team. They've 27-12 here, compared to 22-19 on the road. (The Rockets are 25-15 on the road.) Also, the Clippers had yesterday off, while the Rockets are off a win at Sacramento. Additionally, the Clippers are playing with "double-revenge," as the Rockets hammered them in a couple of games earlier. Perhaps most importantly, the Rockets have already wrapped up the #3 seed while the Clippers are in a dogfight with the Jazz, who they will face in the opening round, for the #4 spot and the homecourt advantage which comes with it. While the Rockets are a surprisingly poor 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) their last 14 against teams with a winning records, the Clippers are 13-6 ATS against teams with a winning record, during the same stretch. Payback time on TNT. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Heat beat me yesterday but that won't stop me from going against them again here. While Miami was off a hard-fought loss at Toronto, the Wizards had yesterday off. I expect a highly motivated effort from the home team. Not only is this Washington's final home game of the regular season but the Heat have already beaten them twice. Also, they know that they close out the regular season with a game at Miami on 4/12. So, if they don't beat the Heat here, they could easily be 0-4 against them for the season, a distinction which they obviously would prefer to avoid. The Heat are now 17-23 on the road. The Wizards, on the other hand, are 30-10 at home. With the Wizards also 23-12 ATS their last 35 in the "revenge" role, I say its "payback time" this evening. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. Its true that the Heat really need this game. However, the same is true of the Raptors, as they are battling for the #3 spot in the conference. Currently, the Raptors are in third place (due to tiebreaker rules) just slightly ahead of the Wizards. They'd badly like to maintain that spot and try and avoid the Cavs as long as possible. The Raptors got Lowry back last game and he makes this team much better. While the Heat are 17-22 on the road, the Raptors are 27-13 at home. The Heat get outscored on the road, the Raptors outscore teams by an average of eight points per game, here at Toronto. Thats about the margin the Raptors beat the Heat by when the teams faced each other here, a 9-point win back in November. Toronto was laying -7 for that game. Including that victory, the Raptors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight as a host of the Heat. We're getting them at a lower line this time. For the regular season home finale, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Expect another big win and cover for the Raptors. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. The home team has won both meetings. The Magic won by seven here at Orlando back in mid-December. The Nets returned the favor with a 10-point win at Brooklyn last week. Playing at home and looking to avenge that loss, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Magic. While the Magic admittedly don't have a great (14-24) home record, its much better than the Nets' 7-31 record on the road. While the Nets are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that that they were off three or more consecutive wins, the Magic are 9-6 ATS their last 15 off three or more consecutive losses. With the Nets allowing more than 115 pgg on the road, and Orlando allowing an average of just 103 ppg here, I expect homecourt to again make the difference and for the Magic to come away with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Blazers have been roling but I expect them to finally stumble this evening. The T-Wolves would love to "play spoiler" against a team which has already beaten them twice this season. A win here gets them to .500 at home on the season. The Blazers are still just 16-23 on the road. Both teams have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games recently. The T-Wolves have hit triple-digits in five straight games, scoring 115 or more in four of those five. They should put up another big number against a Portland team which allows 109.1 (110.2 on the road) points per game. The Wolves are 18-12 ATS their last 30 against teams which allow 106 or more. Look for them to "come to play," ultimately scoring the win and cover. *GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. The Mavs deserve credit for hanging around as long as they did. However, they're now officially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and I feel they may have some trouble getting up for this one. The Bucks, who will be looking to avenge an OT loss at Dallas and who have won three straight overall, are 22-17 at home. The Mavs, on the other hand, are now 10-26 on the road. The Bucks are playing with more confidence. Expect them to defend their homecourt, covering the relatively small number along the way.

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* PERS FAV. The Magic played a great game last night, leaving it all on the floor at Boston. They ultimately lost by a point though (117-116) and that figures to be a hard pill for them to swallow. Off that tough loss and playing their third game in four days, I won't be surprised if they're a little flat here. While the Nets are also off a tough loss, they at least had yesterday off. They know the Magic beat them at Orlando and they know they'll face them again, at Orlando, in less than a week. They're going to be hungry to avenge the earlier loss and to "hold serve" at home. This is the most winnable game on the rest of their schedule. Expect them to take advantage of the opportunity. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. I expect the Thunder to be a little more "up" for this game. The Spurs just lost a big one against the Warriors which cost them the chance at the #1 spot. They're locked into the #2 seed, this game now means little. They're 2-4 ATS their last six off a double-digit loss, 8-12-1 ATS in that situation the past couple seasons. The home team has won both meetings, each time by double-digits. With the Thunder at 27-10 (25-11-1 ATS) home, they could easily be favored. I expect them to score the "upset." 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Both teams really need this one but I like the way the Hornets are playing right now much better. Throw in the fact that they're also at home and this line could easily be higher. The Nuggets are off b2b losses. They got crushed by 25 points by the Pelicans in their last home game and followed it up with a pivotal 9-point loss at Portland. They've now lost four of fix. Charlotte, on the other hand, knocked off the Raptors last time out and has won five of its last seven. While Charlotte may be a relatively modest 21-17 at home, the Nuggets are just 15-21 on the road. The Hornets won by 10 at Denver a few weeks ago and I look for them to record the series sweep tonight. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. The Pistons badly need a victory and the Nets should provide them with the perfect opportunity to get one. Detroit has lost five in a row and no game on the remaining schedule will see them favored by this much. The fact that the Nets have already beaten them twice should only provide further motivation. Even with a 1-point loss last game (still covered) the Pistons are 23-15 at home. That compares favorably with the Nets' 6-30 road record. The Nets were favored last game but still lost. They're 0-2 SU/ATS when off a loss when favored. With the cover last time out, the Pistons are now 8-3 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses. Look for them to bounce back and record a convincing victory. 

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. The Wizards had to fight hard to beat the Lakers last night. While they don't have to travel, they're still in a tough back-to-back spot. While its true that they still have an outside shot at catching the Cavs for the #2 seed, given that they clinched the division last night, their first division title in 38 years, a letdown could easily be in order. Thats not the case for the Clippers. LA, currently in 5th in the West, is well-rested and fighting hard to get the fourth spot. As you're likely aware, the #4 seed has homecourt advantage while the #5 seed does not. After collapsing against the Kings last time out and having already lost to these same Wizards at Washington, the Clippers are going to be extremely motivated. Look for them to be both hungrier and fresher and for that to ulimately lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Hawks are on a losing streak. A look at their upcoming schedule reveals that they won't get a better opportunity than this one to stop the bleeding. After this, five of their next eight come on the road. The three remaining home games, after this one, are against Boston, Cleveland and Charlotte. In other words, they really need to take advantage of facing a Phoenix team which has lost eight straight and which is 10-30 on the road. A look at the Suns' 8-game skid shows that they allowed a minimum of 107 points in all eight of those games. Over their past three games, they've allowed 126, 130 and 120. The Hawks beat them by 13 here last season. I'm expecting another double-digit victory.

I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz have won both this season's meetings and I expect them to have the edge again this evening. While the Pelicans are off a win at Denver yesterday, the Jazz had the day off. Thats noteworthy as New Orleans is just 4-9-1 ATS (4-10 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. Off a 13-point loss, the Jazz, who are 5-3 ATS (6-2 SU) off a double-digit loss, figure to be in a foul mood. The Pelicans are are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) when matched up against a team which allows 98 or fewer points per game. With the Jazz allowing only 96.7 ppg (94.5 at home) I'm expecting a win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. The home team has won each of this season's game convincingly. The Thunder won by 11 at OKC. The Mavs won by 15 here at Dallas. I expect homecourt to make the difference again here. Off a loss last time out and with their next five on the road, the Mavs know they need to take care of business tonight. While the Mavs had yesterday off, the Thunder are off a hard-fought loss against the Rockets. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they lost at Phoenix. Including that result, they're just 3-9 the last dozen times that they played the second of b2b games. While the Thunder are now 14-21 on the road, the Mavs are 21-17 at home. The Mavs badly need this one. Look for them to have the fresher legs and to play with a sense or urgency, en route to an important win. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* PERS FAV. Off back-to-back losses, the Pacers can't afford another setback here. While they've admittedly played much better in recent weeks, the 76ers are still an ugly 10-26 on the road. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 25-11 at home. The Pacers are a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they hosted the 76ers. They won those games by a combined 72 points, an average of a dozen points per victory. In five of those six games, including this season's earlier meeting, the Pacers were laying double-digits. However, we're only laying single-digits this time. As I'm expecting the Pacers to pull away for a double-digit win, I feel the lower line is providing us with excellent value. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks badly need a victory and a visit from the Nets should provide them with the perfect opportunity. While the Nets are 5-30 on the road, the Hawks are still 19-17 at home. When the Hawks hosted the Nets a few weeks ago, they were laying -10 points. When they played at Brooklyn in January, they were laying -8.5 points. They won those two games by an average of 12.5 points. This afternoon, as a result of recent results, we're getting a far lower line to work with. I feel thats providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. These teams are going in opposite directions. Fighting for a playoff spot, the Blazers are now 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in March. Last time out, they blew out the Knicks. They've since had a day off. On the other hand, the T-Wolves are now 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games. They've given up an average of 118.6 ppg during that stretch. Off last night's loss at LA, the T-Wolves are now 10-25 SU and 13-22 ATS on the road. Note that the T-Wolves are also 11-33 SU their last 44 when playing the second of b2b games. The Blazers won by six when these teams met at Minnesota on New Year's Day. Playing at home, with more to play for and with the schedule in their favor, I expect an even bigger margin of victory tonight. 

I'm playing on OREGON 10* BEST BET. Needless to say, Kansas is a very strong team. The Jayhawks have been extremely impressive, blowing out all three opponents that they faced. Teams rarely crush every opponent though and I expect them to get their first real test here. The Ducks are also a very good team, well-balanced, experienced and well-coached. They've also shown an ability to win "close games." They won their last two games by one point and three points. While that may not be as impressive as what Kansas has done, I expect that "close game experience" to serve them well here. After scoring 90 or more in all three games, Kansas can obviously score points with the best of them. That doesn't figure to phase the Ducks though. They're 25-12 ATS their last 37 against teams that score 77 or more points per game, 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven. With the Jayhawks only 5-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s, I'm taking the generous points.

I'm playing on BAYLOR 10* GAME OF YEAR. As many of you are likely aware, my biggest play from the second round was on South Carolina over Duke. So, I'm certainly aware of what the Gamecocks have done thus far and respect them as a team. That said, they had a very big advantage in their first two games, as they were able to play in their home state. That's no longer the case, as they'll be facing Baylor at MSG. Having the support of the crowd was a huge help in beating Marquette and Duke. 

The Gamecocks defense is their strength. However, the Bears are every bit as good in that departement. The Gamecocks allow 65.2 ppg. The Bears allow only 63.5. Baylor's zone defense should match up very well against a South Carolina team which typically doesn't shoot well from beyond the arc. 

While the Gamecocks don't score as many points on the road as they do at home, the Bears score just as many points on the road.  South Carolina connects on 41.9% of its field goals on the road and overall, the Bears hit 47.7% of their shots on the road. While South Carolina is averaging 73.4 ppg on 40% shooting its past five games, Baylor is averaging 76.6 ppg its last five, connecting on a whopping 49.3% of its field goals. Indeed, the offense is currently clicking on all cylinders. 

With both Villanova and Duke out of the way, the Bears are the highest seed left in the East Region. Note that coach Scott Drew is now 9-2 against teams with a lower seed. The Bears are well-coached, athletic, experienced and tough on both sides of the ball. Expect them to punch their ticket to the Elite 8, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Pacers have alternated wins and losses for 14 straight games now. Off a loss at Boston, I expect them to bounce back and continue that pattern for at least another day. Both these teams are much better on their home floor. Off an impressive win against the Cavs last time out, the Nuggets are 20-17 at home. However, they're just 14-20 on the road. Meanwhile, the Pacers are an ugly 11-25 on the road but an impressive 25-10 at home. Last time on this floor, they beat Utah by seven. That brought them to a perfect 5-0 here, dating back to 2/24. All five of those wins came by a minimum of four points and they came by an average of nearly 12. The Pacers won by four when they hosted the Nuggets last season, a game in which they were laying -9.5 points. Obviously, we're getting a far more favorable line here. The Nuggets crushed the Pacers 140-112 when these teams met at London back in January. Playing at home, I expect the Pacers to get some payback this evening. *GOW

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. These teams have met twice so far this season. Boston won both meetings. However, both were decided by seven points or less. In fact, the last four meetings were all decided by single-digits. Speaking of close games, the last three Celtic games overall have been decided by eight or fewer points. The Pacers have won three of their last five, only one of those five games coming by more than six. Off their win against the Jazz, Jeff Teague said this of the Pacers' effort: "We played well tonight, we played hard, we were a group out there. Defensively, I think we did a really great job." Look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Pacers as they take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset.

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. Enough is enough. The Bulls have dominated the Raptors for years. The Raptors are the better team right now though and are determined to make things right by finally beating their nemesis. Dwayne Casey said this of beating Chicago: "It should be high on our radar." With the Raptors off a big weekend and back-to-back double-digit wins, now should be the ideal time. They're 12-7 ATS after scoring 115 or more and 14-6 ATS off a double-digit win. While the Raptors are 23-12 at home, the Bulls are 13-22 on the road. With the Bulls also at 2-6 SU/ATS after allowing 90 or fewer points in their previous game, I say its "payback time" on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the 76ers have been playing well recently. However, in this case, I believe that the Magic are favored for good reason. While the 76ers are off a win against Boston yesterday and now playing their third game in the past four days, the Magic are well-rested. Since closing their road trip with a win over the Suns, the Magic have had the past  couple of days off. They're healthier than their guests and they should be motivated to reward the home fans with a victory. Note that the Magic are 15-9 ATS the last 24 times that they played their previous three games on the road. When the Magic do win, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. They've won five games since the 76ers beat them by a point here back in early February. All five of those victories came by a minimum of six points. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight and for that to ultimately make the difference.

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA 10* 2nd Rnd GAME OF YEAR. The Gamecocks aren't getting much respect here. However, their second half performance against Marquette was extremely impressive and gives them a ton of positive momentum. If you missed it, South Carolina was losing at halftime of that game. However, the Gamecocks delievered a dominant 54-33 second half performance. 

Marquette head coach Steve Wojciechowski had this to say of the Gamecocks: "I thought over the course of the game their physicality wore us down."

Allowing only 64.7 ppg, the Gamecocks are one of the better defensive teams in the country. When you combine hot shooting with that excellent defense, they're a much stronger team than many probably realize. Note that they were 7-1 SU this season, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. That includes a 4-0 SU record in 2017. 

In case, you haven't heard, the Gamecocks are getting to play these games in their own state, roughly 100 miles from their own campus. Essentially, that makes this very much like a home game for them. They'll absolutely have the crowd behind them. If that seems unusual, its because it is. The reason? The NCAA pulled its first-weekend games from Greensboro,  due to the state of North Carolina's controversial HB2 (House Bill 2) otherwise known as "The Public Facilities Privacy & Security Act." In fact, if not for HB2, or if had been rejected or repealed, Duke would be the team which would be getting to play in its home state. 

Instead, we've got a team which plays outstanding defense, coming in with positive momentum off its 55-point second half and playing in front of a supportive crowd. 

While they had some trouble outside their state at times, the Gamecocks lost only three games in the state of South Carolina this season AND none of those losses came by more than seven points. Expect them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* PERS FAV. These schools faced each other in November of last season. The Spartans (+4.5) scored the upset in that one. I believe the gap between the teams is significantly wider for Sunday's "rematch" though. While the Spartans have talent and are obviously well-coached, they're also young. Currently, in my opinion, this is not one of Izzo's stronger MSU teams. On the other hand, a recent loss to TCU notwithstanding, this is a very strong Kansas team. 

Off a 100-62 destruction of Cal-Davis, the Jayhawks were arguably as impressive as any team in the tournament in the opening round. While the Spartans also looked good in beating Miami, they've still lost three of their last five games. In fact, they've lost nine times since early January. Those losses came within the Big Ten. However, when matched up against elite non-conference competition, the Spartans also often struggled. They lost by 21 against Kentucky, by 15 against Baylor and by nine against Duke. Speaking of Kentucky, Baylor and Duke, Kansas beat all three of those teams. They even beat Baylor twice. 

The Spartans are 0-3 ATS their last three as neutral court underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Izzo may have gotten the better of Self in four of six meetings since Self came to Kansas, but Self has the superior side this time. The Jayhawks are 19-1 SU the last 20 times that they scored 80 or more points. Expect them to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. The Pistons are healthier and they should be hungrier. The Pistons' current 3-game losing streak has seen them fall out of the top eight spots in the East. They desperately need to stop the bleeding here. While the Suns are also off three straight losses, unlike the Pistons, they're currently playing out the string. Note that the Suns are without Bledsoe, Knight, Bender and Chandler. Also, while Booker is probable, as of this writing, Barbosa is questionable.

Detroit's Reggie Jackson had this to say: "We are not panicking. Everybody has had their run, so 13 games left, I know in my mind I am bound to make one before it happens, so I am good. I plan to be in the playoffs. We are going to keep chasing it each and every day. I love my team and they are optimistic, just as much as I am. We are going to keep attacking this."

While the Suns did beat the Pistons at Phoenix, they're just 10-25 on the road. The Pistons, on the other hand, are 22-14 at home.

With the Suns allowing 112.5 ppg, note that the Pistons are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams which allow 106 or more points per game. Look for the Pistons to bounce back with a big win, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, after losing their previous three in a row.

I'm playing on BUTLER 10* PERS FAV. The Blue Raiders were certainly impressive in their opening round upset of Minnesota. However, I believe they're a little over-valued here, based partly on the fact that everyone remembers them from last year, when they upset Michigan State. I expect them to find things considerably more difficult against a tough Butler team.

While everyone seems to remember the Blue Raiders' upset of the Spartans, many seem to have forgotten what happened to them in the next round. In case you forgot, they got destroyed (75-50) by Syracuse. (While I didn't play a side in that game, I did cash a ticket on the 'under.') 

Like Syracuse proved to be last year,  I believe this is a very dangerous Butler team. When the Bulldogs are "on," they can beat any team in the country.  Indeed, the Bulldogs beat Villanova, TWICE. As impressive as MTSU's record was, they really didn't have a very difficult schedule. 

With their opening round victory, the Bulldogs are now 4-1 ATS in neutral court games. Going back further finds them at a profitable 71-34 ATS, excluding pushes, their last 105 lined neutral court games. That includes a 24-8 ATS mark in the "Big Dance," 5-0 ATS their last five. Look for Butler's games against the likes of Villanova to pay dividends here, the Bulldogs advancing and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DAYTON 10* BEST BET. Its not often that you find a #10 seed favored by this much over a #6 seed. While Wichita State admittedly, deserved a better seed, I don't feel that the Shockers should be laying this many points against a very competitive Dayton team. The Flyers had seven losses this season. A look at those losses shows that only one came by greater than six points and that was more than two months ago. The other six losses all came by six or fewer points. This is a team which beat Rhode Island twice and split with VCU. The Flyers nearly knocked off both St. Mary's and Northwestern. The Shockers, 7-15 ATS their last 22 tournament games, were only 3-4 ATS in neutral site games. That included an 0-2 ATS mark when listed as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Don't be "shocked" when this game comes down to the wire, Dayton improving to 5-1-1 ATS its last seven, when getting points. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON 10* GAME OF THE YEAR. While I respect the Rams, I believe that they're in over their heads here. True, the Rams come in on a roll, while the Bluejays have been a little inconsistent in recent weeks. Thats kept the line lower than it could have been, essentially making the pointspread a non-factor. Not bad when considering that Creighton is a #6 seed, facing an #11 seed. 

After an 18-1 start, Creighton lost its starting point guard, Maurice Watson, to injury. Admittedly, that was a blow to the team. It also took a toll when Watson was charged with sexual assault a few weeks later. This is a well-coached team thougha dn the adversity figures to have brought them closer together. 

Creighton's Ronnie Harrell Jr noted: "It's easy to get caught up in everything that's going on around you that you forget what's happening in front of you. So we've talked as a team, coaches included, about just staying in the moment, having each other's back as well as having everybody else's back. So I think that was the main thing for us, and I think we've done a great job of that."

Creighton coach Doug McDermott had this to say of his team: "For us to be seeded as one of the top 24 teams in the country, given everything we've been through, it's a testament to the will and togetherness, the cohesiveness of this group."

While many seem down on the Bluejays, keep in mind that they beat Providence by double-digits and then knocked off a good Xavier team to advance to the Big East finals. Thought they lost (to Villanova) when they got there, this is still a team which has proven capable of rising to the occasion and playing the #1 team in the country in their last game, at MSG, figures to help them here.

McDermott went on to say: "It's one thing for me to talk about what it's like, but to experience it and feel it, what the Garden is like on championship Saturday, it's something that's pretty incredible. And our experience here this week is going to help us moving forward and, I think, help us in the NCAA Tournament."

While the Rams are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three against Big East teams, the Bluejays were a perfect 13-0 SU (8-3 ATS in lined games) this season, when facing a non-conference opponent. They're also 11-3-1 ATS (12-3 SU) their last 15 as a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points, or a game where the line is a pick'em. Throw in the fact the BlueJays are 5-1 the last six times that they played with five or six day's rest and I'm backing the higher seed.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Warriors haven't covered in awhile but this should be a good spot to break though with a blowout win. While the Warriors have tomorrow off, the Magic play at Phoenix tomorrow. That's a far more winnable game, obviously. Once the Warriors jump all over them, they're likely to start thinking about tomorrow and may not fight as hard to try and get back in the game. In their last three games, the Magic have allowed 121, 116 and 120 points. Since they only average 99.9 ppg, that makes keeping up tough. Note that they're 7-12 ATS (4-15 SU) against teams which average 106 or more ppg. Now, they'll face a GSW team which still averages a whopping 119.1 ppg. The Warriors won the first meeting by 20 points. With the Magic only 12-25 ATS their last 37, after allowing 115 or more ppg, look for this one to also turn ugly.

I'm playing on FLORIDA 10* PERS FAV. True, the Gators had some trouble with Vanderbilt at the end of the year and come in with three losses in four games. Those results have keep this line a little lower, in my opinion, could easily have been.  Not only are the Gators a much stronger team, they also get to play at Orlando, quite close to home. 

While the Buccaneers were just 2-2 ATS as underdogs this season, the Gators were 17-8 ATS when laying points. The Bucs, who don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home, haven't played too many good teams. One "decent" team they faced was Datyon. The Flyers beat them by 14. 

The Bucs do have an elite player in senior guard TJ Cromer. However, he's just one player and the Gators are going to be paying extra attention to him. He'll get his points, but it won't be enough. 

In addition to being a stronger overall team which is playing at a favorable venue, I like the fact that Florida hasn't had as much time off in between games. The Gators last played on 3/10 compared to the Bucs last playing on 3/6. Thats a pretty big gap in between games for the Bucs - the longest they had this season. 

While the Bucs were 8-9 ATS in lined games against teams which score 77 or more points this season, the Gators are 4-1 ATS their last five against teams which score 77 or more. Look for them to "bounce back," serving notice that "they're back" with a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. Recent results have kept this line lower than it could have been. The Bucks have been rolling while the Grizzlies have been reeling. I feel that the low line is providing us with very fair value on what should be a desperate home team. The Grizzlies badly need a victory. After this, they've got six of their next seven on the road, the lone home game during that stretch coming against San Antonio. 

While the recent results haven't been there for the Grizzlies, it hasn't been from lack of effort. Coach David Fizdale made these comments after yesterday's practice: "As long as I see that we’re getting in the gym early, staying connected, staying positive and getting shots up then I’m encouraged. Obviously, we’ve got to iron some things out and get us playing better basketball. But I just keep looking at the body of work. Obviously, we’re disappointed because we feel like we’ve let the fans down some with these losses at home. But if our fans knew how hard these guys were working behind the scenes on being a better basketball team they’d be happy to know that. We’re going to work our way out of the mud. That’s all it is. We've hit adversity. Its punched us in the face. We have to figure out how to get up ..."

The Grizzlies, who lost at Milwaukee earlier in the season, are 17-12 ATS (19-10 SU) when playing with 'revenge.' They still only allow 97.3 ppg on this floor. They're still 19-14 here, which compares favorably to the Bucks' 12-17 mark on the road.

While they've now lost three in a row at Milwaukee, the Grizzlies have dominated the Bucks here at Memphis. They won by 20 when they last hosted the Bucks and that brought them to 5-0 SU the last five meetings here. The last four of those all come by a minimum of nine points, the last two by double-digits. The Grizzlies, who are expected to bring back Tony Allen to the starting lineup tonight, held the Bucks to 90 or fewer points in ALL five games. Expect them to bounce back with a strong defensive effort, en route to a much needed win and cover.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Heat have been on an impressive run and they won again yesterday. I expect their roll to come to an end today though. While the Heat were busy playing Toronto yesterday, the Pacers were resting, waiting for them. Its true that the Heat did have a couple of days off, prior to yesterday's game. However, they'd previously played three games in four days, including an emotional home-and-home vs. Lebron and the Cavs. So, this will still mark their sixth game in the past 10 days. To look at it another way, they've played one more game in March than Indiana has. The Pacers have only played two home games since the All Star Break and they've won them both. In fact, both wins (Memphis and Detroit) came by double-digits. Overall, they're 22-10 at home, compared to a 14-20 road mark for Miami. Playing with revenge from a pair of losses at Miami, look for the rested, revenge-minded Pacers to take care of business on their home floor. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN 10* GAME OF WEEK. Obviously, both teams have played very well to get this far. I like what the Badgers have done more though. Michigan beat Minnesota by an 84-77 margin yesterday. However, Wisconsin destroyed Northwestern by a 76-48 margin. Prior to that, the Badgers beat Indiana by double-digits on Friday. Michigan, on the other hand, needed OT to get past Purdue. Playing those extra OT minutes - and having to fight harder than the Badgers - combined with the fact that the Wolverines also had to play Thursday while Wisconsin had that day off, figures to catch up with the Wolverines here. The Badgers have been the much stronger defensive team all season. They allowed 61.5 ppg, opposing teams shooting 40.7% from the field. On the other hand, Michigan allowed 65.5 ppg, opposing teams shooting 46.5%. Look for the Badgers' fresher legs and superior defense to be the difference. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. Off four straight wins, the Blazers are playing their best basketball. The Blazers, who are a much better team here at the Moda Center, know that they hit the road for five games after this. With an 11-22 road record, compared to a 17-13 mark here at home, they know how important is to take care of business tonight. Admittedly, the Wizards have also been playing well lately. However, while the Blazers had last night off, the Wizards were forced to go to OT to beat Sacramento. Not only will they be playing the second of b2b games but this will also mark their fourth road game in the past five days. Thats a brutal schedule, made worse by the extra minutes they were forced to play last night. While the Wizards blew them out at Washington earlier, the Blazers have dominated the Wizards here at Portland in recent seasons. With the schedule and venue in their favor, expect the revenge-minded Blazers to stay hot for another day.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* ANNIHILATOR. I won with the Spartans when these teams met on 1/11. At the time, a lot of people were backing the underdog Gophers, who were playing with 'revenge' from a 1-point loss on 12/27. I opted to lay the small number with the Spartans though, expecting their homecourt to prove too much to overcome. They rewarded me with a 65-47 victory, jumping out to a 39-17 lead by half. This one, however, is at the Verizon Center and I expect an entirely different result. 

The Gophers made remarkable progress this season, a 15-game turnaround from last year. Getting knocked out in their first tournament game and losing all three to the Spartans is NOT the way that they want their Big Ten campaign to come to an end. I expect an extremely motivated effort and I expect them to be far more ready to play than they were last time. Note that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS and 8-1 SU the last nine times that it attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. 

The Gophers have the second best RPI (behind Purdue) in the Big Ten. They hold opposing teams to a 39.6% field goal percentage, which is best in the Big Ten. They also rank #1 in 3-point defense, limiting opposing teams to 30.8% from beyond the arc.

One of the impressive things about the Gophers' defense is that its been every bit as good on the road as it has been at home. Thats helped lead to a winning (6-5) road record. On the other hand, the Spartans give up considerably more points on the road (72.1) than they do at home. On the road, they allow opposing teams to connect on 43.3% of their shots. 

When the teams last met, the Gophers were part way through a 5-game losing streak. They're arguably playing much better now. Though they did lose their last one, they'd previously won eight straight. Look for their superior defense to be the difference, as they bounce back and "take the next step" by beating the Spartans and earning a tournament win. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Off three straight losses, most recently an embarrassing setback against Brooklyn on Monday, the Grizzlies are going to be in an angry mood. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a much needed victory. 

While the Grizzlies have been off since Monday, the Clippers played last night. They're 6-7 SU/ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. This is worse than a "typical" b2b spot though, as this will mark their third game in the past four days, their fifth game in the past seven days.

The Clippers have taken two of three meetings this season. The teams split a pair of games at LA and the Clippers won here, back in November. However, even with that result, the Grizzlies are still a profitable 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine times that they hosted the Clippers. 

The only previous time that the Grizzlies had lost three straight this season, they bounced back with a double-digit victory in their next game. Expect another win and cover here. *GOM

I'm playing on TULSA 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the Golden Hurricane haven't been very good in March the past couple of seasons. However, I expect them to break through with a big win this evening. While Tulsa's 14-16 record may not seem too impressive, it starts to look pretty good when compared to Tulane's 6-24 (2-14 on the road) mark.

Tulsa only connects on 42% of its shots. The Green Wave are worse though, making just 40.7% (37.9% on the road) of theirs. Its on the other side of the ball where Tulsa really has the edge though. The Golden Hurricane allow 70.3 points on 43.5% shooting. The Green Wave, on the other hand, allow 78.9 ppg on 47.4% shooting. 

Tulane does come off a rare win, an 81-69 win over the same Tulsa team they'll face here. However, the Green Wave are only 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were off a conference win, 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS this season. They wanted that game (Senior Day) more than Tulsa, but that won't be the case here. The Golden Hurricane are 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) when laying points. Look for them to take care of business, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The Hawks badly need a big win and the Nets should be the perfect opponent to provide them with one. While the Nets won big at Memphis last time out, they're still a dismal 4-27 away from Brooklyn. They give up 116.9 ppg on the road. That was just their second win in recent weeks. They followed up their last with a 15-point loss. In fact, they haven't won two games in a row all season long. They're also just 7-17 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off a double-digit win. The Hawks already won by 20 at Brooklyn earlier. They also beat the Nets by 28 the last meeting here at Atlanta. Catching the Nets, who haven't played a home game since 2/15, playing the second last leg of a long road trip, look for the Hawks to bounce back with another blowout. 

I'm playing on RICE. I believe that there's a big gap in talent between these teams and that the Golden Eagles' best chance of staying competitive would be if the Owls took them lightly. However, with both regular season meetings having been closer than expected, the Owls have already taken them for granted. They've had their "wake-up call" and I don't expect them to make the same mistake. The Owls know how to win, regarldess of venue. They averaged 81 ppg away from home, going 9-5. Overall, they were 21-10. Conversely, Southern Miss was 9-21 and that included a horrific 1-15 mark, when playing away from home. The Golden Eagles averaged just 56.7 points in those 16 games. Look for the Owls, 4-1 ATS their last five on a neutral court, to be all business the entire way, pulling away for a blowout win. 

I'm playing on OKC. This will mark the third meeting between these teams in just over a month. I successfully backed the Thunder when they hosted the Blazers on 2/5. Last week, on March 2nd, I successfully backed the Blazers, when they were the host. That brings the home team to 3-0 SU/ATS on the season series. With this evening's fourth and final meeting being played at OKC and with the schedule in their favor, I expect the Thunder to again "hold serve" at home. While the Thunder had last night off, the Blazers had to play a game at Minnesota. This will mark their third game in the past four days. The Thunder, who have dropped three straight starting with the loss at the Moda Center, are 3-0 SU/ATS since late November, when off three or more consecutive losses this season. The last time that they were in that situation they responded with a 14-point win against Memphis. Prior to that, they beat Denver by 15. Before that, they also beat the Nuggets, this time at Denver. Expect the Thunder to have the fresher legs and for them to bounce back, once again. UPDATE: Portland's game against Minnesota got postponed, after this play was written. While that means that the Blazers are no longer in a "back-to-back spot," it does not change this play. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE 8* VIOLATOR. With a 14-15 record, the #8 seeded Vikings may not seem like a team worthy of laying this many points. However, when compared to #9 Northern Arizona, which checks in with a dismal 9-22 record, I believe that the Vikings are actually pretty good. Whether they're talking about football or basketball, you still sometimes hear people make the statement: "Defense wins championships." Well, offense helps too. The Vikings score far more points than any team in the Big Sky. Portland State averages 86 ppg. At 80 ppg, North Dakota, which finished with the best overall record in the conference, was second best. On the other hand, Northern Arizona is at the very bottom of the conference offensively, averaging just 69.4 ppg. The Lumberjacks don't do enough defensively to make up for it either, as they allow 79 ppg, when playing away from home. The Vikings, which also rank in the top 3 in the entire country in steals, may have lost a couple in a row but I feel that they're going to come in confident. Last year, they were also the #8 seed in this tournament. Not only did they win their opening round game, then nearly beat Weber State (which ended up winning the whole thing) as they were leading with less than three minutes to go. Plus, they just beat these same Lumberjacks by a dozen points on 2/25. I backed the Vikings in that game and I'm going with them again here.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Heat embarrassed the Cavs on Saturday. With the rematch being played Cleveland, expect the Cavs, who are back home off three straight on the road, to exact some serious revenge. Note that Cleveland is a lucrative 17-9-1 ATS (22-5 SU) its last 27, including 3-1 SU/ATS this season, after having played its previous three or more on the road. While the Heat are 13-20 on the road, the Cavs are 26-6 at home. The Heat lost their last road game (at Orlando) by double-digits and the Cavs won by 30 when the teams met here last. Payback time. *GOW

I'm playing on VERMONT 10* PERS FAV. While the Wildcats have been solid, the Catamounts are on a mission. They're destroying teams right now and I don't expect them to let the Wildcats, who they've already beaten twice, to stand in their way. After winning the regular season title, the Catamounts tipped off postseason play with an 86-41 obliteration of Maine. Full of confidence, the Catamounts haven't lost since before Christmas. Their last four wins have all come by double-digits. While the Wildcats have a modest winning streak of their own, it came against the bottom feeders of the America East. Playing at home in the the Roy L Patrick Gymnasium, where they've outscored teams by an average score of 75.2 to 57.3, look for the Catamounts to keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 8* MAIN EVENT. Off three straight losses, the "Cousins-less" Kings aren't getting much respect. While the Jazz are a tough opponent, they aren't quite as intimidating away from Utah. They only outscore teams by an average of 2.5 points (100.6 to 98.1) on the road; I believe this line will prove to be too high. The Kings haven't played since the first day of March. The breakfigures to have come at a good time; the Kings had been struggling it'll have given them a chance to work on the new lineup. Note that they're 2-0-1 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest. They're also 8-2 ATS when off three or more consecutive losses, winning six of those outright. While the Kings are 8-4 ATS against teams from the Northwest, the Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS against teams from the Pacific. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by single-digits including each of the last two at Sacramento. The Kings actually won three of those five games outright. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* VIOLATOR. This one should get ugly. The Cougars already won by 16 when the teams met in January. That was at East Carolina, where the Pirates are far more competitive. They're 12-5 at home but just 2-11 on the road. Off an emotional win over UConn on Senior Night, it should be easy for them to lay an egg here. On the other hand, Houston should be highly motivated. Not only is this Senior Day for the Cougars, but they're also off an ugly loss in their last game, one which saw them score only 47 points. They've had an excellent season and the last thing they want to do is to squader it and limp into the conference tournament off back-to-back losses. The Cougars won by 16 points each previous time that they'd scored 60 or fewer points this season, covering the spread in each of those. I expect them to win by an even bigger margin than that here. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played on the Blazers in their last game. Off that Thursday win over OKC, the Blazers take a big step down in class to face a road-weary Brooklyn team. They know this a game that they can ill afford to squander. While the Blazers had last night off, the Nets fought hard but ultimately lost by double-digits at Utah. They're 0-10 SU when playing the second of b2b games this season. This will make the Nets' fifth straight road game and their third road game through the first four days of March. Note that they're now 0-5-1 ATS (0-6 SU) after playing their previous three on the road. The Blazers already beat the Nets by 20 at Brooklyn, a 129-109 blowout. Facing a Nets team which allows 116.7 ppg, the Blazers are going to put up a big number again here. I don't feel the Nets are going to have the necessary desire or energy to keep up. Look for the Blazers, 9-4 ATS (12-1 SU) the last 13 times that they faced a team which allows 106 or more points in the second half of the season, to run them out of the building. 

I'm playing on LONG BEACH STATE 10* BIG WEST GAME OF YEAR. The Warriors come in with the better overall record and they won when the teams met at Hawaii. However, I believe that the 49ers are favored for good reason. While the 49ers may only have one senior (Anson Moye) to recognize on Senior Night, this game is still a big deal. A victory gives the 49ers, who are off b2b losses, some positive momentum entering the Big West Tournament. It also would give them the #4 seed for that tournament and a rematch with these same Warriors. They've been outstanding (9-2) here all season and I believe that they're going to want to "establish dominance" over the Warriors, before the tournament. Speaking of the tournament, the Warriors have had an emotional 24 hours. They just learned yesterday that they're eligible for the Big West Tournament. I believe that could easily cause them to "look ahead" to those bigger games. While the 49ers are well-rested, having not played since 2/25, the Warriors just played on Thursday. That loss dropped them to 3-6 on the road. The Warriors average 64.7 ppg on the road, the 49ers average 77.5 ppg at home. I believe they're going to be both hungrier and fresher and I expect that to lead to a win and cover. *Top Big West

I'm playing on DALLAS 10*. While I understand why Memphis, which has the far better overall record is favored, I could easily make a case for Dallas being the favorite. True, the Grizzlies hammered the Mavs when these teams met here back in November. However, at the time, Dallas was really struggling. That game came right in the middle of an 8-game losing streak and the Mavs which saw the Mavs start off with an 2-13 record. They're playing much better now though, having covered three straight. Their last two games here at Dallas resulted in a double-digit win over the Pelicans and a 7-point win over a previously red-hot Miami team. With a win tonight, the Mavs would/will have a better home record than the Grizzlies will have a road record. Already, they're outscoring teams by a 100 to 97.1 point margin here which is superior to the Grizzlies' stats on the road; they're getting outscored by a 103.7 to 103.6 margin in road games. The Grizzlies have had a couple of days off in between games. Thats not necessarily a positive for them though, as they're 1-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Note that they've got a big (divisional) showdown at Houston on deck tomorrow night. The Mavs, on the other hand, get tomorrow off. They're 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10*. The Magic have taken two of three meetings, each of the last two, against the Heat. This is a team which they match up well against and they're going to come in confident. They had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. The Heat, now just 13-19 on the road, have a game against former teammate Lebron James on deck tomorrow. If there's ever a game to look ahead to, that could be the one. Don't be surprised when the Magic score the upset. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10*. The Wizards just hammered the Raptors a couple of days ago, at Toronto. Playing with recent revenge, I expect a much better effort from the Raptors here. The Raptors, now 14-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, won by 10 when they played here earlier. They also won both meetings here last season. They're comfortable on this floor and I look for them to bounce back with at least a cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. I won with the Thunder when these teams met at OKC a few weeks ago. The Thunder were only laying -4.5 points for that 2/5 game and I felt that was a little low. However, just as OKC is much better on its home floor, the Blazers are a MUCH stronger team at the Moda Center. The Thunder are 23-8 at home but just 12-17 on the road. The Blazers are 10-22 on the road but 14-13 here at home. Not surprisingly, given those records, the Blazers won (114-95) when these teams met here back in December. In fact, the Blazers have won five straight meetings against the Thunder here. Those five victories came by an average of 10 points, too. While the Thunder play again tomorrow, the Blazers are rested and they also get tomorrow night off. Fully focused on the task at hand, look for the Blazers to continue their homecourt success in the series. 

I'm playing on UAB. I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, a cover against Middle Tennessee State. This should be another good spot for them. Its true that UAB has won only one if its last seven games. Those results have actually worked in our favor. Not only have they kept the line a little lower than it could have been but they should provide us with an extremely motivated UAB team. A closer look reveals that four of those seven games came on the road and that the two home losses came against MTSU and ODU, two of the top four teams in the conference. During that 7-game stretch, the lone home game vs. an opponent (Charlotte) in a similar class as the one they'll face here, resulted in a 13-point win and cover. Speaking of that Charlotte game, the Blazers were laying -10, which is higher than they opened up here. Yet, the 49ers are arguably better than the Owls. (FAU did beat Charlotte by two points in h2h action, but Charlotte has the superior overall record on the season.) While the Owls are 5-8 on the road, the Blazers are still a healthy 10-4 at home. The Blazers have beaten the Owls three straight times, including a 104-67 destruction the last time they met on this floor. I'm expecting another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on XAVIER 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Musketeeers have really struggled down the stretch. In fact, they're in the midst of their worst losing streak in many years. On Senior Night, looking to avenge a recent loss at Marquette, I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed win. The Golden Eagles could easily get caught looking ahead to their only Senior Day, Saturday's showdown vs. Creighton, Luke Fischer's final regular season game. While the Eagles won big at BMO Harris Bradley Center on Feb 18, the Musketeers had previously dominated the recent series. Speaking of that 2/18 game, its one that the Musketeers won't have forgotten. Not only did the Eagles pound them but the Marquette fans started a chant of "F— you Xavier!" That resulted in the following statement from Marquette admin: "Profane chants don't reflect our values. They don't show support for our student athletes on the court, or respect for our opponents. And they don't send the right message about who we are to families sitting nearby, visitors from a fellow Jesuit institution or to the rest of the country watching on television." Needless to say, it didn't sit too well with the Musketeers. Keep in mind that Xavier was a Top 25 team not too long ago. Now, the Musketeers are likely going to need a strong showing in the Big East tournament for a shot at the Big Dance. I say the "bounce back" starts here with some "payback" on Wednesday. *GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. The Bucks lost a close one, at Denver, a few weeks ago. At the time, it was their fifth straight loss. So, they weren't playing well at the time and they also had a game on deck, the next night. They'd go on to win that one (at Phoenix) before dropping their next two. Since then, they've won four of their last six, the only losses coming vs. Utah and at Cleveland. So, they're playing much better than they were for the 2/3 meeting. They're well-rested and they also don't have to worry about playing a game tomorrow, as they did for the earlier meeting. Of course, they're also a much better team at home than they are on the road. A win here will pull them back above the .500 mark at home. They're just 11-17 on the road. The Nuggets have similar home/road stats, as they too are much better in their home building. While the Bucks had Tuesday off, the Nuggets were busy battling Chicago. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, this will be their third game in four days and their fifth in the past seven. Look for it to catch up with them here, the Bucks taking advantage. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON 10* PERS FAV. The Bonnies check in with the superior overall record. However, I believe that the Wildcats are favored for good reason. Both teams are going to want this one. The Bonnies will be looking for some payback against a Davidson team which knocked them out of the A-10 tourney, in "heart-breaking" fashion, last season.  The Wildcats will be every bit as hungry though, if not more. Its their final regular season home game - Senior Day - and they'll be looking to go out with a bang. While the Bonnies have an explosive backcourt duo of Adams and Mobley, this floor belongs to the tandem of Gibbs and Aldridge, a pair of Wildcat guards who are averaging better than 42 combined points on the season. Mathematically, the Bonnies can still improve their seeding for the A-10 Tourney. However, the reality is that they're likely already locked into the 5th seed. In order to improve, they'd need to win both their remaining games while also having Rhode Island or Richmond, who each play relatively easy games, to lose both theirs. While the Bonnies are 1-6-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 140s, the Cats are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were home favorites of three or less. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* BLOODBATH. There's a significant class difference between these teams and this one should get ugly. The Jayhawks are rolling right now. They've won six straight and covered the spread in their last three. Playing their home finale, I expect them to keep the pedal the metal the entire way. While the Sooners were impressive in scoring a minor upset (at OU) vs. K-State last time out, they're just 3-11 away from home. They've got a winnable game (TCU) on deck but can't be very confident about their chances here. While the Sooners average 72.2 ppg on the road, the Jayhawks average 87.8 ppg here at home. Look for Kansas, also better on the defensive side of the ball, to deliever a "statement blowout."

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* GAME OF WEEK. Some of you will likely recall that I cashed a big play (GOW) on the Heat when these teams met at Miami, back on 1/19. I had a number of reasons why I played on the Heat, at the time, and stated that I expected them to "stay hot" and "go on a winning streak." At the time, the Heat hadn't won back-to-back games for ages and were seemingly already playing out the stretch. Things are different now though.

Including the 1/19 win over the Mavs, the Heat are an improbable and impressive 16-2 their last 18 games. Thats resulted in us getting far better value with the Mavs tonight, than we were last month. Keep in mind that the line for that game closed at "pick'em," despite it being played at Miami. The Mavs are a much better team at home than they are on the road though. They're still above 500 here, at 15-14. On the road, they're only 8-21. Its fair to say that the Mavs have been an entirely different team here. Off a double-digit win over the new-look Pelicans, they come in with some momentum, too. 

Even with their recent hot streak, the Heat are still a sub-500 team. They're still 13-18 on the road. While the Mavs outscore teams by a 100.1 to 97.4 average here at Dallas, the Heat get outscored by a 102.3 to 99.4 average margin, when playing on the road. That's with the Mavs playing in the tougher conference, too. While the Heat have certainly proven worthy of respect, I believe the value lies with the revenge-minded Mavs. Look for them to avenge last month's loss and improve to 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing (SU) record. *GOW

I'm playing on QUINNIPIAC 10* MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH. I've recently won with Rider and have recently successfully played against Quinnipiac. However, in each of those instances, I was playing on a revenge-minded home team, which was playing its fiinal home game. Today, the shoe is on the other foot. Its the Bobcats which will be playing with revenge and the Bobcats which will be playing their final home game. Though the Bobcats already know they'll be the #8 seed in the MAAC tourney, I believe they're going to be extremely motivated to close out the regular season with a win. They badly want to snap their losing streak, a win here will get them back to .500 at home and avenge the earlier "track meet" loss (112-107) at Rider. Also, the Bobcats will honor seniors Harris, Chigha and Smith before the game and would really like to send them out as winners. Look for them to do just that, the Broncs falling to 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were road favorites of three or less. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE 10* BLOODBATH. I expect a motivated Vikings team to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Not only are they playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss at Northern Iowa but this marks the Vikings' final game at Peter W. Stott Center's main gym, as the entire complex is being remodeled and renovated. (Next year, the team will play at Viking Pavilion.) They'll want to close things out here with a big win, as they recognize five seniors who are playing their last game here. Northern Arizona averages 69 ppg on the road, going 3-14. On the other hand, Portland State averages 90.2 ppg here at home, going 9-3. Payback time. 

I'm playing on UCLA 10* BEST BET. The Bruins are 27-13 ATS the last 40 times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick) of three or fewer points. They won 23 of those games outright. They'll be looking to avenge a loss at UCLA, their only home loss, and I like their chances of another "upset" there. There was some initial talk that Ball might not play but as of this writing, it appears he'll be good to go. While the Cats score 78 ppg at home, the Bruins score 88 ppg on the road. While we have to go back some time, note that the Cats are just 5-10 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I'm backing the Bruins.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Kings got the post-Cousins era started with a victory. It remains to be seen what the long-term impact of Cousins' departure will be. Undoubtedly, he was extremely talented. The Kings weren't able to surround him with much though and still didn't win with him. Sometimes, a fresh start is best for all. Either way, however, this is a team still likely to struggle down the stretch. The Kings, already without Gay for the season, simply don't have much. This is a team that Charlotte can't afford to lose against. Not when the Kings already beat them last month. At the time, the Hornets were in the midst of a losing streak and off a hard fought loss against the Knicks the previous day. Cousins torched them for 35 points and 18 rebounds. This time, they're in the midst of another losing streak and off another hard-fought loss. However, this time, they had yesterday off and this time they won't have to contend with Cousins. Payback time. 

I'm playing on EMU 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Huskies won by 12 points when these teams met at NIU a few weeks ago. That game marked the beginning of what has turned out to be a dismal (winless) February for Eastern Michigan. Playing their final home game of the month, where they should be able to more effectively dicate the tempo, I expect a motivated Eagles team to exact some revenge this afternoon. While the Eagles score a healthy 85.8 ppg at home, the Huskies score a mere 66.2 ppg on the road. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they were favored at home in the -3.5 to -6 range. Payback time. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* BLOODBATH. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three consecutive losses, their first losing streak of more than two games, the Bears are going to be in an angry mood. This also marks their final home game of the regular season (Senior Night) and they'll be looking to send Jabari Bird, Sam Singer, Roger Moute a Bidias, Stephen Domingo and Grant Mullins out in style. With an 0-14 record on the road, the Beavers represent the perfect opponent. Expect the Bears, who still have a shot at a first round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament, to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, en route to a blowout win.

I'm playing on DAVIDSON 10* MAIN EVENT. The Flyers are on a winning streak and are likely going to be a popular play here. However, I like the Wildcats to score the upset. Davidson, which lost at Richmond last time out, has long thrived off a conference loss. In fact, the Wildcats are 50-19 SU and 44-23 ATS the last 59 times that they were off a conference loss. That includes a 13-8 SU/ATS mark their last 21 in that situation. The last time that they lost, they followed it up with a double-digit victory over George Washington. That also happened to be their most recent home game. Keep in mind that the Wildcats have already beaten VCU here, the team Dayton is battling for top spot. So, they've shown that they can compete with the best in the conference, on this floor. Speaking of VCU, Dayton plays the Rams next, a huge game. Though the Flyers do get a few days off first, on their current winning streak, it could be easy to look past Davidson and ahead to that one. I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. The Raptors have covered all three meetings with the Celtics this season, going 2-1 SU. That includes a 114-106 win in the game here at Toronto, a game they were laying -5 for. We're getting a considerably lower line to work with here, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. While the Celtics are 3-8 ATS in divisional games, the Raptors are 10-2 ATS. The Celtics are a solid 17-12 on the road. However, the Raptors are a superior 19-10 at home. Boston outscores teams by a modest 106.9 to 105.4 margin on the road. Toronto outscores teams by a 111.6 to a 103.1 margin at home. I expect homecourt to prove the difference, the Raptors continuing their success in the series and moving to 5-1 SU/ATS their last six as a host in this series. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The Heat hammered the Hawks on the first day of February. That was when they were in the middle of their big winning streak. That streak is now over, however, and the Heat are now playing on the road. The Heat are 12-18 on the road. The Hawks are 16-11 at home. The Hawks won by eight when these teams played here earlier this season. They were laying -9 for that game. (They were laying -10.5 when they hosted the Heat last February, too.) While things have changed since then, I don't feel that they've changed enough to warrant such a dramatic line shift. Look for homecourt to be the difference, the Hawks avenging the this month's earlier loss, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* PERS FAV. Homecourt means a lot to both of these teams. The Utes won big when they met at Utah earlier. Playing on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Buffaloes to return the favor this evening. While the Utes are 5-7 on the road, the Buffaloes are 11-3 at home. Utah gives up 71.3 ppg on the road, Colorado gives up 67.7 at home. Colorado also scores 77.3 at home, compared to 74.9 for the Utes on the road. The Utes just got swept in Oregon, losing by 18 at Eugene against the Ducks and by a single points at Corvallis against the Beavers. That last loss figures to sting a little, as 1-point losses often do. It also shows how much differently this team plays on the road, as the Utes had beaten those same Beavers fairly comfortably when the teams played at Utah. Homecourt proves the difference, again. 

I'm playing on RIDER 10* GAME OF WEEK. I won with the Jaspers in their last game. That was a great spot for them. This is not. Last game, the Jaspers were playing their regular season home finale, "Senior Night." They had a chance to get to .500 at home. They were also playing with 'revenge' against a Quinnipiac team which had defeated them in their previous game. Perhaps most importantly, they were catching their opponent off a deflating OT loss. None of those things apply here, however. 

This time, the Jaspers are on the road. They're just 3-12 away from home. They're facing a Rider team which is coming off a momentum-building 18-point win at Iona and which is playing its home finale. A victory here ensures the Broncs of a winning season overall, as well as a winning home record. Rider lost a close one (76-73) at Manhattan back in mid-January. Payback time. *GOW

I'm playing on BAYLOR 10* MAIN EVENT. The Sooners are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Bears are going to be in a foul mood. They've only lost back-to-back games once and they responded with a win and cover (at OSU) in their next game. The Sooners have had a long season and have little hope in winning either of their remaining two road games. These teams met at OU earlier, the Bears winning by 26 points. That was with the Sooners playing at home and playing with Jordan Woodard, their best player. He's now out making an already tough task that much more difficult. Sure, they'd love to avenge that embarrassing loss. However, in this case, wanting to do something and actually doing it are two entirely different matters. If the Bears hadn't just lost those games, one could make a case for them looking past the Sooners ahead to Iowa State. I don't see that happening here though. Baylor wins big, again. 

I'm playing on UVA 10* VIOLATOR. On Saturday, I successfully played on Miami while also successfully played against Virginia. So, some might be surprised that I'm "going the other way here" and playing on Virgnia and against Miami. However, each game needs to be looked at on its own individual merits and in this case, I feel that its the Cavs who will have a decided advantage. 

One of the (several) reasons that I played on the Hurricanes on Saturday was that I knew the had this game, a likely loser for them, on deck. Likewise, I knew that the Cavs, who have now dropped three straight for the first time this season, had this winnable game on deck. 

While this is the first time that the Cavs have lost three in a row, its the second time in which they failed to cover three straight. The previous time that happened? They responded with a win/cover in their next game, a 76-53 blowout of ECU. Including that result, they're a perfect 6-0 SU the last six times that they'd failed to cover three in a row.

The Canes are tough to beat on their home floor but they're below .500 on the road. They're also just 7-12 ATS against teams with a winning record. Here, they'll face an angry Virginia team which allows a mere 50.9 ppg on this floor. I'm expecting the Cavs to deliver another dominant defensive effort, en route to a double-digit victory.

I'm playing on MANHATTAN 10* MAAC GAME OF YEAR. I really like how this one sets up for the Jaspers, who are going to be highly motivated to avenge an earlier (2-point) loss at Qunnipiac and to win their final home game of the regular season. 

Both teams are off three straight losses. However, the Jaspers were blown out at Siena on Thursday while the Bobcats lost in heart-breaking fashion, at Fairfield, on Friday. I believe that Manhattan's loss - and the extra day of recovery/preparation - to prove  I call it "heart-breaking fashion," as the Bobcats were down 16 points in the second half, gave it everything they had and fought back to finally take a lead. Then, with less than one second (0.1) remaining, Fairfield hit a basket to force OT. The Stags would go on to lose by an 89-86 score. Some types of losses sting more than others and that one figures to fall into that category. 

While the Bobcats are 4-10 on the road, the Jaspers can get to .500 at home with a win. They're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were off three or more consecutive SU losses and I expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on UNC 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR. No matter what school or team one is talking about, life in the ACC is almost never easy. This is an incredibly challenging conference. You rarely get a break, or easy game. It can wear down the best of teams. I think thats started to happen to Virginia of late. The Cavs are just 1-3 SU/ATS their last four games. They responded to a loss at Syracuse by returning home and beating Louisville. However, that was followed by a narrow 2-point loss against instate rival V-Tech and proceeded by a double-digit loss against Duke. Things certainly don't get any easier here. Indeed, the Tar Heels are perfect on their home floor this season. 

Don't expect the Heels to show the Cavs any sympathy. UNC just got one of those "easy" wins, a 24-point blowout win at NC State. However, the Heels are well aware that this game marks the first of a 5-game stretch to close out the season which will feature four games against ranked teams. They also know that they'll be facing the Cavs, at Virginia, on 2/27. In other words, they better take care of business here. 

With four losses in six games, Virginia may be lacking some confidence. Monday's home game against Miami may provide them the opportunity to get some back. Not today though. Not here. The blowout of NC State and the perfect home record will have the Tar Heels brimming with of confidence. They score more than 90 points per game at home while Virginia scores less than 70 ppg on the road. Homecourt proves the difference, UNC "holding serve" and improving to 14-8 ATS the last 22 times it was a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range.