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10* Arizona. Analysis before 7am PST. PAC 12 GOY

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I`m playing on NEW JERSEY. While I obviously respect the Spurs, I believe that this number will prove to be a little too high.

While they may be 11-4 SU at home, the Spurs are only 5-10 ATS here. They`ve won their home games by an average score of just 103.8 to 99. Their road record is actually much better than their home record.

Last game, laying -11.5 points vs. the Kings, the Spurs won by eight. They`re 5-3 their last eight games but none of those five wins came by more than 13 points and four of them came by single-digits.

The Nets did lose by 14 at Indiana last time out. The Pacers have been more dominant at home than the Spurs have though. The Nets had quietly won three of their previous six road games though, two of the losses coming by four points or less. I look for them to show some pride tonight. 10*

I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Tide have lost quite a few games already, probably more than they would have cared for. In fairness, its been a pretty tough schedule. Those losses should provide them with some extra urgency. A win here would be just what the doctor ordered. While that won't be easy, I expect them to go all out.

A closer look at the Alabama losses shows that they have come by 3, 5, 2, 2, 10, and 9 points. (The 10-point loss was against Duke.) That's an average of only five points per loss, meaning they could potentially have a better record and also that they don't get "blown out" easily.

UCLA has been an underdog twice. It lost both those games. The Bruins were beaten by 17 by Duke and by nine by Missouri. They'd been double-digit favorites for every other game, with the exception of their opening game vs. Drexel. Laying -7.5 points in that game, they won by five. I expect them to have their hands full once again here. 10*

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While they blew the cover last game, I like the way that the Grizzlies have started to play. They led Houston much of the way last game out, before eventually losing by eight. If you read the post-game comments, you'll see the Grizzlies felt they were treated unfairly by the refs. (Randolf got fined $25K over his comments.) They were happy with their effort though. Before that, they'd won and covered back-to-back games.
On the other hand, with last night's loss at New Orleans, the Nuggets are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five. They played well to start the season but the offseason losses have seemingly started to catch up with them a little.

At least, that's been evident when the Nuggets have played the second of back-to-back games; they're 1-4 SU/ATS in that situation so far this season. The lone win was against the 76'ers; all four losses came by double-digits.

While some of the faces are now different, its worth noting that the Grizzlies have had success as a host in this series recently. They're won four of the last five meetings here, covering three of them. They were laying -6 and -7 points for last season's games here; we're getting a much better line to work with this evening.

A look ahead at the schedule shows that these teams will meet again, at Denver, on 1/3. For that game, Memphis will be in a back-to-back situation while the Nuggets will be rested.

Well aware of next week's schedule and knowing that tonight offers them a much better opportunity for the victory, I expect the Grizzlies to take care of business here. 10*

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the visitors. The Grizzlies are well-rested, having had the last couple of days off. They also come in with some positive momentum. They followed up with an 8-point win at NY with a 10-point win over Utah. The Grizzlies, who play with revenge from an earlier loss at Memphis, have played the Rockets tough recently and I look for them to do so again here.

True, the Rockets looked good yesterday. However, that was a big win over an instate rival, on National TV. Throw in the fact that it was Christmas and it figures to have been an especially emotional time/win for some of the players. I feel its a good spot for a letdown, mentally and/or physically. In addition to the back-to-back spot, note that Houston will be playing its third game in the past four days and its fifth game in the past seven nights.

While they lost (by seven points) at Memphis last month, the Grizzlies had previously beaten the Rockets twice in a row. They won their last game here by a score of 82-78.

A look at the last five games in the series shows Memphis with three wins. Only one of those games resulted in a Houston win of greater than seven points.

Off the win over the Jazz, note that the Grizzlies are 31-18-3 ATS (37-15 SU) the past few seasons, when coming off a double-digit victory. During that stretch, they've won 18 of 27, when playing with two day's rest in between games.

The Rockets played last Christmas Day. The next day they were in a battle, winning by three vs. Minnesota. While they were able to grind out the win, afterwards Harden noted the following: ''We were kind of sluggish throughout the game. We stuck with it for four quarters. Every game we're not going to score the ball, we're not going to make shots every single game. In different games you have to grind it out and try to force a win.'' I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I successfully backed the Clippers when these teams faced each other on Halloween. That was at LA though. With tonight's rematch being played at Golden State, I expect a much different result.

Off five straight wins, the Clippers are certainly playing well. (Note that four of those were at home and the other was at Washington.) They failed to cover last time out though, dropping them to 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were off three or more consecutive SU victories. Tonight's venue is a tough one.

The Warriors outscore teams by a 104.8 to 97.8 margin at home. The Clippers score only 98.7 ppg on the road, giving up 97.2

Not only do the Warriors score a lot of points, they're also better defensively than many realize. They allow 97.8 ppg at home, but hold visiting teams to just 42.4% from the field. Recently, the Warriors have stepped up their defense, too. Over the last five games, opposing teams have hit less than 40% of their shots, the Warriors holding them to 93.4 points.

Over their last two games, the Warriors have allowed 83 and 81 points. Their opponents (Lakers and Nuggets) shot 32.5% and 38.3% respectively.

They're 12-6-1 ATS (14-5 SU) the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range.

The Warriors are also 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times they were a host in this series, 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 10*

I'm playing on BOISE STATE. With the football team getting whipped yesterday, the Broncos' basketball team may feel it has a chance to finally gain a little recognition. Beating a nationally ranked opponent like Iowa State would certainly help. While the Cyclones certainly deserve respect, I believe the Broncos have what it takes the score the Christmas Day upset, in the Championship Game of the Diamond Head Classic.

While they don't have a national ranking and while most of their wins have admittedly come against weak teams, I believe that the Broncos will again prove to be one of the better teams in their conference. That's saying something as the Mountain West is tough; the league sent five teams to the NCAA Tournament last season.

Boise was one of those five MWC teams to make the tournament last season, finishing with 21 wins. The Broncos returned all five starters from that team, along with four other lettermen. A closer look at the stats shows the Broncs returned more than 92 percent of last season's scoring, nearly 97 percent of their assists, 98 percent of their starts and 90 percent of their total minutes.

While the Cyclones are undefeated, the Broncos are a solid 10-2. The losses came at Kentucky (no shame in that) and vs. St. Mary's - the game immediately following the Kentucky loss. They've since responded with back-to-back wins, most recently a 80-54 destruction of South Carolina. Hawaii has seemingly been treating them well.

This year's Broncos are averaging 83.8 points per game, 19th best in the country. While the Cyclones shut down Akron last game, they'd given up an average of 77.0 points per game on 46.4 percent shooting over their previous three games.

When facing quality teams, the Cyclones have had some close games. Their games against Michigan, Iowa, Northern Iowa and BYU were all decided by single digits. Two of those were decided by three or less. With a 1-point win over Hawaii a few days ago, the Broncos, who's only double-digit loss came at Lexington, have now seen two of their games decided by two points or less.

Speaking of close games, I backed an underdog from the Mountain West (San Diego State) in the final of this tournament last season. The Aztecs were getting five points (vs. Arizona) and they ended up losing by one, 68-67. (The Wildcats blocked a layup in final secs. to hang on for the win.)

I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire and am grabbing the points with the underdog from the Mountain West. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I believe the Lakers are in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

While the Lakers hosted the T-Wolves last night, the Warriors had Friday off. They figure to be in a foul mood too, after blowing a game against the Spurs on Thursday, a game in which the Spurs played without their "Big 3."

Note that the Warriors are an outstanding 16-9 ATS (17-8 SU) the last 25 times that they were off an "upset" loss.

While they've won a couple in that situation recently, playing back-to-back games doesn't figure to help the depleted Lakers. Not against a Golden State team which averages more than 105 points per game here and more than 108 in divisional games. Note that LA gives up 106 ppg on the road.

One might think that they'd fare well as large underdogs but the Lakers are only 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU) the last eight times that they were road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. During that time, they're also only 3-9 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range.

These teams have already met twice this season. The home team won both games. The Warriors won the game here at Oakland by a score of 125-94, a 31-point destruction. I expect another lopsided result here. 10*

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. I successfully played against the Seminoles a few games ago, when they lost by 10 at Minnesota. This afternoon, however, I believe that the value is on the other foot.

Admittedly, the Minutemen have been playing well. They've also been money at the betting window. I believe that's worked in our favor though, helping to keep this line close to being a pick 'em.

Since the loss against the Gophers, the Noles have responded with back-to-back double-digit wins, giving them plenty of positive momentum here. A 77-53 blowout of Jacksonville was followed by an impressive 106-62 destruction of Charlotte. That 44-point victory was their biggest of the season.

While this is technically a neutral court game, it will be played at Sunrise, Fla. That figures to favor the Noles. Note that FSU hammered Tulsa (82-63) in this even last season. Also, note that the Minutemen are an ugly 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were a neutral court underdog (or pick 'em) of three or fewer points.

After the big win over Charlotte, coach Leonard Hamilton said this of the Noles: "...I just think our guys played exceptionally well. We shot the ball exceptionally well. We made extra passes. We took care of the ball. Our rebounding effort was good. I think that this team (Charlotte) brought the best out of us."

While wins against Top 25 opponents have been hard to come by for FSU in recent seasons, the Noles have already knocked off (then) #10 VCU this season and they also played both Michigan and Florida very tough. The Noles beat the Minutemen in 2011 (and 2006) and I look for them to emerge victorious once again. 10*

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Bobcats have been a profitable road team this season. I expect them to run into some trouble this evening though.

After rallying from a 21 point deficit last time out, the Pistons have quietly won seven of their last 11 games.

The Pistons average a whopping 51.6 ppg in the paint, most in the league. With Jennings, who had five 3-pointers last time out, heating up from beyond the arc, that makes them very dangerous. Over his last eight games, Jennings had hit 20 (of 49) 3's, averaging 20.8 ppg overall.

While Wednesday's upset win at Toronto was impressive, note that the Bobcats are a dismal 7-23 ATS the last 30 times that they were off a SU win, when listed as an underdog.

After scoring 107 points last time out, the Pistons have now hit triple digits in five straight games. While the Bobcats scored 104 last time out, they'd managed 95 or less in each of their previous four games. They only average 90.8 ppg on the road.

The Pistons are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they scored 105 or more in their previous game. They hammered the Bobcats by 20 in the most recent meeting and I look for another big win here. 10*

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I'm playing on UC-IRVINE. Admittedly, the Ducks have played very well to start the season. Their 9-0 record is particularly impressive, given that they've been playing without Dominic Artis and Ben Carter, a pair of projected starters who were both suspended through the first nine games. I believe that this will prove to be a very tough spot for the Ducks though and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.

The popular opinion is likely that Artis and Carter will make this team even better. I won't disagree with that. However, they may not make them better 'immediately." This group had already been so successful without those players that adding them to the mix may result in some short-term "chemistry" issues.

Even if there aren't any chemistry problems, don't expect either player to start tonight. Coach Dana Altman had this to say: "We're not going to start them right away. We're going to work them in."

I'm not playing against the Ducks due to the returning players though. Rather, I believe that their record has caused them to be over-valued at the betting window, that their opponent is more dangerous than many likely realize AND that this is a difficult scheduling spot.

I suggest that this is a tough spot on the schedule as the Ducks are off a hard-fought win (at Portland) over a scrappy Illinois team AND as they've got a huge rivalry showdown vs. BYU on deck. (The Cougars hammered the Ducks in the last meeting, even more reason to look ahead.)

Prior to the game vs. the Illini, the Ducks had won an OT game against an SEC (Ole Miss) opponent. Off those big games and with another big one on deck, I feel it may be easy for them to look past "lowly" UC-Irvine. I believe that could prove very costly though, as the Anteaters are a dangerous team.

Indeed, UC Irvine has already won at Washington this season. The Anteaters were getting 9.5 points in that one and they won outright by 14.

While they're only 6-5 overall, note that four of the Anteaters' five losses came by six points or less.

The Anteaters, who have a massive front court, are shooting 48.3% from the field and they've got four players averaging in double-figures.

The Anteaters already possessed a very good inside game last season, as they ranked second in the Big West in rebounding and blocked shots,

Last year's roster included 7-0, 268-pound center Conor Clifford. This year, the team added another pair of "giants." Mamadou Ndiaye, a four-star, Top 100 recruit is 7-foot-5, taller than any player in the NBA. (He was pursued by Georgetown.) Meanwhile, 7-2 center Giannis Dimakopoulos played for Greece's U18 national team.

In addition to those new big guys, the Anteaters also have 6-10 John Ryan, 6-10 Mike Best and 6-8 Will Davis II. That gives them one of the biggest teams in the entire country. Add in a trio of guards (McNealy, Nelson, Alex Young) that are averaging 11.5 points or more per game and this team is indeed a dangerous one.

Note that Davis earned the Big West defensive player of the year award last season. All he did was block league-best 88 shots last season, smashing the school record of 55 he set the previous season. Davis' shot-blocking was a big part of The threat of Davis at the back end played a major role in last year's Anteaters' team limiting opponents to 38.7 percent shooting, best in the Big West and No. 15 nationally.

The last meeting between these teams (2008) was decided by just seven points. I won't be surprised to see another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10*

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. Naturally, I have a lot of respect for the Spurs. They're very well coached and they generally play both smart and well. That said, I feel they're going to get upset tonight.

Both teams are playing well right now. The Spurs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their last four games. The Clippers are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four. (The lone loss came when playing the second of b2b emotional road games.)

The Spurs have only lost twice on the road. The Clippers have only lost twice at home.

While the Spurs have been a long-time nemesis, the Clippers are "growing up" and now have a big-time coach of their own.

There are a few key things I like about how this one sets up for the Clippers though.

I like the fact that Chris Paul, who is the "straw that stirs the drink" in LA, is off a monster game. He had 38 points and 12 assists last time out.

I also like that the Clippers were 26 of 31 from the free throw stripe in that game.

While they're off a long road trip, I like the fact that the Clippers were able to sleep in their own beds last night. While its admittedly a small sample size, note that the Clippers are undefeated (SU) on the season, when returning home after playing two or more games on the road.

While both teams had yesterday off, the Spurs had previously played four games in the past five days. This will still be their fifth game in the past seven days, all five games at different venues. That stretch began in Toronto, several thousand miles from where they're playing tonight.

Note that the Clippers average 111.2 points per game on this floor (103.7 overall) and that the Spurs are only 31-42-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when facing a team which scores 99 or more points per game.

The Clippers are 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were home underdogs of three or fewer points, winning six of those outright. They've also quietly covered four of their last five against the Spurs. I expect them to rise to the occasion here. 10*

I'm playing on ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK. Obviously, Memphis hails from the much better conference. The Tigers are good, too. That said, I feel that they're laying too many points here.

Yes, Memphis brings a lot pure talent to the table. Admittedly, the Tigers have an excellent guard rotation. They're not as strong in the front court though. Rebounding and scoring in the paint figure to be a challenge for them this season.

It should be noted that the Tigers have a huge game vs. Florida, at MSG, on deck. I believe that it will be easy for them to get caught looking ahead to that matchup.

Speaking of Florida, the Trojans played at Florida and were getting less points than they are here.

The well-coached Trojans brought back four starters from last season's team. One of those is 6-10 senior Will Neighbour. Neighbour, who figures to become the first in the program to become a 3-time All Conference selection, is averaging 18.7 points per game and 7.6 rebounds. He had a big game at Florida (21 points) and I expect him to do so again here.

Prior to the season, coach Steve Shields said that strength coach John Barron had Neighbour and co "in unprecedentedly good condition."

While the Trojans lost by 14 at Tulsa last time out, they were leading that game by two points at half-time. Prior to that loss, they'd scored 88, 81, 90 and 85 points, in their previous four games.

The Tigers put up an impressive 96 points last time out. They also allowed lowly Northwestern State to score 76 though. I believe that the Trojans bring more to the table that NW. State.

Despite failing to cover this season, the Trojans are 19-13 ATS in lined games the past few seasons against teams with a winning record. They've lost their last two games against Memphis (2008 and 2009) by an average of "only" 10 points, covering the spread in both games. (They lost by 12 and 8.) I feel that the line is generous and I look for them to play the Tigers tougher than most will be expecting again tonight. 10*

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. I won with the Nets in their last game. Deron Williams returned and had a big game and the Nets beat Boston. The Clippers are off a win over those same Celtics. However, that came last night, while the Nets were resting. I believe that sets things up nicely for Brooklyn again tonight.

Last night's win for the Clippers was both "hard fought" and "emotional." It was hard fought as the Clippers had to erase a 9-point deficit and as the lead changed five times in the third quarter. They were still up only two points with three minutes remaining. It was emotional as it marked Doc Rivers' first game back in Boston.

While this is another big "reunion" game for Rivers, I believe his team may be a little worn out. This will mark LA's third game in four nights and its sixth game in the past nine nights. All six of those games came in a different city, too.

Conversely, this will just be Brooklyn's fourth game, during the same stretch. Not only did the Nets have last night off, they also had two days off, prior to Tuesday's win over Boston.

The Nets played the Clippers tough at LA last month, losing by seven. That was a game without Garnett, Pierce, Williams or Lopez. All those players are now back. Note that Williams' teams are 14-5 against Paul's teams, when the two former first round picks have gone head-to-head.

While they covered the last time that they were in that situation, the Clippers remain a poor 7-15-1 ATS (10-13 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. I'll grab the points but am expecting an upset. 10*

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. Admittedly, the Utes are off to an excellent start. I feel that they're laying a few too many points here though.

This has been one of Utah's worst roles over the years. Indeed, the Utes are an ugly 4-15 ATS the last 19 times that they were favored at home, in the 15.5 to 18 point range.

These teams have met here each of the last two seasons. Utah was favored by only 2.5 points in 2011, winning by 12. Last year, the Utes were favored by 8.5 and won by 11.

A closer look at last year's game shows that the Bengals actually held a 29-22 halftime lead.

Last year's Idaho State team, which had a 1st year coach, had real trouble scoring. They finished the season averaging only 57 ppg, only 336th in the country. That led to a poor 6-24 record.

This year's team has their coach back, along with three of last season's most productive players. They're averaging 79.6 points, hitting 46.6% of their shots.

Meanwhile, while they did get several new junior college transfers, the Utes brought back only one full-time starter.

While the Bengals did get blown out at Arizona State, they won outright on the road vs. a solid San Francisco team.

Including that victory, the Bengals are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were road underdogs in the 15.5 to 18 point range.

It should be noted that Utah has a big game vs. rival BYU on deck. Considering that the Cougars have beaten them three seasons in a row and by three last year, that could be cause for some "looking ahead."

Either way, I look for this one to be closer than most will be expecting. 10*

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Celtics check in as the hotter team and with the better overall record. However, I feel that the Nets are favored for good reason.

As you very likely are aware, these teams made a huge trade with each other in the offseason. Garnett, Pierce and Jason Terry all came over from Boston. So far, that trade hasn't worked out too well for the Nets. They've struggled while the Celtics are on top of the division. Needless to say, both teams will really want this one.

The Nets are expected to see the return of Deron Williams and perhaps Pierce, as well. While its true that it may take some time for everyone to get used to each other, I do expect Williams' return to provide an immediate boost.

Note that the Celtics, who are 0-3 ATS their last three off a double-digit win, remain without Rondo.

Also, note that the Celts have had one day off in between games while the Nets have had two days off. Additionally, while the Nets have tomorrow off, the Celtics will be playing a big game against their former coach's (Doc Rivers) new team.

The Nets are off an 8-point win, one which saw Lopez put up 32 points. I believe they bring more to the table and I expect them to come away with the win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Ducks have gotten off to an impressive start and bring a top 15 ranking into today's game. I expect them to suffer their first loss here though.

Give the Ducks credit for beating Georgetown (at South Korea) in their opener. However, since that victory, they've been double-digit home favorites for every subsequent game. In other words, the competition has been pretty weak.

That changes here, as they'll take on an Ole Miss team which finished with 27 wins last season, advancing to the third round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Rebels' chances for success this season improved a lot when Marshall Henderson was allowed to return to the team with only a very light punishment. Henderson will be suspended for the team's first two SEC games but he'll be around for today's contest. Given that he led the league in scoring last season and that he was the MVP of the SEC Tournament, which the Rebels won, having him in the lineup is certainly significant.

Henderson didn't shoot well from beyond the arc last game and the Rebels lost by three at K-State. He was 4 for 9 (44.4%) from 3-point range in the Rebels' last home game though, en route to scoring 19 points. Back home, I expect Marshall to bounce back with an improved effort.

Speaking of suspensions, the Ducks have a pair of players who will miss their first nine games, guard Dominic Artis and forward Ben Carter. Throw in the fact that they have seven transfers new to the program - and I believe that the Ducks are definitely beatable.

The K-State and Oregon games are two big non-conf. contests for the Rebels. Having lost to the Wildcats, the Rebels should be extremely motivated for a win here.

The Rebels have won 23 straight home games against non-conference opponents. Going back further finds them at 62-2 under coach Kennedy in such games. I expect them to keep that impressive streak in tact here. 10*

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. With Kobe soon set to return, we may not see the Kings favored over the Lakers again for awhile. Kobe isn't expected to be back quite yet though - and I believe the Kings are favored for good reason tonight.

While the Kings haven't been getting the "W's" to show for it, they have been playing well of late. I backed them last game and they nearly came back to beat OKC, losing by only two. In fact, three of the Kings' last five losses came by a combined five points and another came in OT.

The only "bad" loss during that stretch came against these same Lakers. However, that was at LA and the Kings were off a 1-point heartbreaker vs. the Clippers the previous night.

This time, they're at home and well-rested. They're 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they hosted the Lakers and I look for them to get some payback tonight. 10*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Off seven straight wins, the Nuggets enter as the hotter team. However, the Cavaliers are off a victory of their own and they've also got both the venue and the schedule in their favor. I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here.

The Nuggets got a remarkable 72 points from their bench last night. So, its true that none of the starers logged heavy minutes. They still had to play though and will now be playing their third road game in the past four days.

Note that the Nuggets are 0-2 SU/ATS this season, when playing the second of back-to-back games. They lost both by double-digits, 122-111 at Houston and 114-103 at Phoenix.

Even with last night's cover, the Nuggets are still only 3-4 as favorites this season. They're also still just 5-7 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range.

The Cavs got back on track with a much-needed win last time out, taking down Chicago in the process. They've since had plenty of rest in between games, probably a good thing for Bynum and the team in general.

Yes, Andrew Bynum is still around. In fact, the 7-foot center is off a monster game. He had 20 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks - his best effort in recent memory.

Bynum figures to carry the momentum into this evening; he's averaging 24.8 points and 11.8 rebounds his last four games against Denver. He scored 30 the last time he faced the Nuggets.

You may recall that Bynum blocked 10 shots in a game against the Nuggets that season too, 11% of their shots.

At the time, Kobe Byrant said this of Bynum's performance: "His timing was impeccable today. He really understood the rhythm of their offensive players. He was just there at the exact moment, either to change or block the shot."

Kyrie Irving, who has averaged 24 points and 7.3 assists in three career games vs. Denver, is certainly pleased to see Bynum playing well. He said this of the Cavs' big man: "When you have someone you can throw it down to, you know he can get his shot when he wants. He draws so much attention. It opens up a lot of opportunities for all of us."

I'll take the points but I look for the Cavs to put together back-to-back wins for the first time, snapping Denver's winning streak in the process. 10*

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I believe the Pelicans are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off a 1-5 road trip, the Bulls figure to be seeing red here. They've been a MUCH better team at home though, unbeatable in fact. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a big win.

Speaking of "bouncing back," the Bulls have been excellent at doing just that, after getting upset in their previous game. In fact, they're 22-10-1 ATS (27-6 SU) the last 33 times that they lost, when favored, their previous game. The last time that they were in that situation, they responded with a 20-pooint win.

While the Bulls had yesterday off, the Pelicans were busy upsetting the Knicks, at MSG. In addition to the back-to-back spot, they'll be playing their third game in the past four nights.

Of course, losing Anthony Davis last night didn't help matters. Davis, who hurt his hand in the first half yesterday, averages 19.6 points, 10.6 rebounds (both best on the team) AND he leads the league in blocked shots.

While the Pelicans were able to overcome Davis' injury last night, it figures to catch up with them here.

Without Davis, the Pelicans will be forced to rely more on Ryan Anderson. However, he's only shot 28.6%, including 20.6% from 3-point range, his last five against the Bulls.

While the Bulls are 2-8 on the road, they're 5-0 at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of greater than 12 points per game here. Given the situation, I expect another double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on OKC. This one sets up nicely for the home team. While the Thunder had last night off, the T-Wolves were busy beating the Mavs, at Dallas.

The Wolves are 0-2 SU/ATS the last two times that they played the second of b2b games, most recently losing by double-digits against Houston.

Off six straight wins, the Thunder are rolling. While they only won by one last time out, the previous three wins had come by an average of 14 points.

The T-Wolves should have OKC's full attention. That's because they hammered the Thunder back on 11/1, at Minnesota.

The Thunder are 34-24 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They beat the Wolves by 16 last time the teams met here and by 22 the previous meeting here. Overall, they're 22-13-1 ATS (27-9 SU) the last 36 meetings, when listed as the home team. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to continue that dominance this evening. 10*

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Both teams are expected to be without a key player. The Rockets will likely be without Harden. The Grizzlies will be without Gasol. Playing at home, I believe the Grizzlies will be the team best able to overcome that loss.

The Grizzlies didn't fare too well last time out, getting blown out by the Spurs. The Spurs are very tough though and that was the first game back home from a road trip, which can sometimes be a tough spot. The Grizzlies have that first game back out of the way now and the Rockets aren't quite yet in that class as the Spurs, at least not without Harden.

True, the Rockets fared well with without Harden last time out. However, they were at home and facing a Minnesota team which was playing its fourth game in the past five days. This time, they're on the road against a rested opponent. Note that Houston's only road game without Harden resulted in an outright loss at Philadelphia.

Prior to the loss vs. the Spurs, the Grizzlies had won four straight, including road wins vs. the Clippers and Warriors. So, they'd really started to play well. They've also been solid at bouncing back from a bad loss so far this season.

While the Rockets are 2-3 SU off a win by 10 or more points this season, the Grizzlies are 3-1 SU when off a loss by 10 or more. I expect them to respond with their best effort, en route to a win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH. These teams met at Milwaukee last season. The Golden Eagles were 2.5 point underdogs but won by double-digits. I believe this year's team, which returned four starters, is stronger. Even better, this year, they get to face the Panthers at home. I expect an "upset."

Tennessee Tech coach Steve Payne said this before the season:

I'm playing on LA SALLE. The Explorers have yet to cover a spread. They should have a significant advantage over tonight's opponent though and I expect a double-digit blowout.

Morgan State is 0-4, getting outscored by an average score of 79-62. While the Bears are an experienced bunch, they've been suffering from the loss of DeWayne Jackson, a 2-time All Conference selection.

The Explorers are also an experienced team, one from a much better conference, one which returned four starters from last season's 24-win team.

The Explorers are 18-2 SU their last 20 games against teams with a losing record, 10-3 ATS in the ones which had lines. During that time, they're 3-1 SU/ATS after three or more consecutive ATS losses.

The Explorers can't afford to drop this game. They didn't come all this way (to Virgin Islands) to lose to the likes of Morgan State and I expect them to flex their muscles with a big win. 10*

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Rockets looked pretty dominant last night, showing the type of potential that they have. That was at home against a weak Boston squad though. Tonight, they're on the road against an instate rival, one which has revenge on its mind and one which is currently playing very well on its home floor.

While they lost at Houston a couple of weeks ago, the Mavericks are a perfect 5-0 at home. They've outscored teams by an average of 110.8 to 100.2 here.

On the other hand, the Rockets are giving up 112 points per game on the road, scoring 112.8 themselves. Overall, they're allowing 106.2 per game.

Note that the Mavs are 28-17 ATS (29-16 SU) their last 45 against teams allowing greater than 99 points per game.

The Mavs have dominated the Rockets here in recent seasons and I expect them to finish on top again tonight. 10*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavaliers haven't gotten off to a very good start at the betting window. However, this should be a great spot to get back on track with a big win.

The Cavs are 0-6 on the road, including a loss at Charlotte. However, they're a perfect 3-0 here at Cleveland. True, all three wins were "close." However, that figures to change against a Charlotte squad which averages only 89.5 points per game on the road, while shooting just 38.5% from the field.

Even with the earlier loss at Charlotte, the Cavs are still a profitable 22-12 ATS their last 34 against Southeast division teams. That includes a 122-95 destruction of the Bobcats the last time the teams met here, a game in which the Cavs were laying six points.

Including that destruction, the Cavs are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were a host in the series. All four of those victories came by double-digits. Looking to avenge the earlier loss, I expect the Cavs to put it all together en route to another blowout tonight. 9*

I'm playing on UAB. These teams met at Rutgers last December. The Knights, who hit 15 of their first 16 shots, jumped out to a big halftime lead and finished with a 88-79 victory. Playing on their home floor, I expect an improved Blazers team to return the favor.

Last year's Blazers had a new coach and they started out the season poorly. Road wins were few and far between and they'd finish at just 16-17 overall. However, a closer look reveals that they actually won six of nine to close out the regular season, then knocking off SMU in the first rd of their conference tournament.

As coach Jered Hasse, a former North Carolina assistant who played at Kansas and Cal noted:

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. As you may be aware, these teams faced each that at Philadelphia last night. The Cavaliers got off to a quick start but the 76'ers fought back and finished with a comfortable 94-79 win. Back on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Cavs to return the favor.

While the 76'ers may have won their lone road game, road wins are still likely going to be hard to come by for them this season. I'm still not sold on this team, one which lost back-to-back games by double-digits before last night.

The Cavs are 2-0 at home and they've held opposing teams to 93 points on 38.1% shooting here. The teams they beat (Brooklyn and Minnesota) were both arguably far more talented than the one they'll face tonight.

The 76'ers are just 6-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. During that span, the Cavs are 2-1 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

With a pair of road games on deck, I believe the Cavs could really benefit from a one-sided win - and that's exactly what I expect them to get. 10*

I'm playing on PORTLAND. This is the front end of a home and home series between these teams. Playing on their home court, I expect the Blazers to hold serve this evening.

This is a step down in class for the Blazers. So far, they've played two games on the road and their two home games have come against San Antonio and Houston. Sacramento isn't in the same class as either of those clubs. While the Kings did eke out a home win on opening night, they've lost all three games since.

The Kings lone road game resulted in a double-digit loss. They had a 34.5% field goal percentage while allowing their opponent (GS) to connect on better their 51% of theirs.

The Blazers are 3-1 SU/ATS as a host in the series the past couple of seasons. All wins came by double-digits, most recently an 18-point blowout here last December. While the Kings could give them a good battle tomorrow, I expect homecourt to prove significant tonight. 10*

I'm playing on MIAMI. I played on the Clippers last Thursday. However, I'm going against them here.

Last Thursday, the Clippers were playing at home. They'd had the previous night off. And, they were facing a team (Golden St) which had played the previous night. Tonight, the shoe is on the other foot. The Clippers lost at Orlando last night. They're on the road. And, they're facing a Miami team which had last night off.

The Clippers are now 1-2 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 105-101.

The champs have had their wake-up call. Since dropping a pair of early road games, they've won back-to-back games, each win coming by a minimum of nine points. Now, playing a National TV game against a team they could potentially meet in the Finals, I look for the Heat to be fully focused and to be at their best.

The Heat are in one of their better roles here. They're 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) their last nine as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. During the same stretch, the Clippers are 10-12-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.

The Clippers beat the Heat 107-100 at LA last season. However, the game here at Miami resulted in a 111-89 victory for the Heat. I expect home court to again prove important, the Heat holding serve with a solid win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The 76'ers got off to a terrific 3-0 start, surprising nearly everyone. That included a victory over these same Wizards, at Washington. The 76'ers came back down to earth in a big way in their last game though, as the Warriors came in here and hammered them. Facing a Wizards team determined to avenge last week's loss, I expect the 76'ers to stumble once again.

Philadelphia's Spencer Hawes had this to say about the 76'ers last game: "There's no beating around the bush, they beat the heck out of us."

Not only should the Wizards be motivated by "revenge," they should desperate just to win a game. They're off to a disappointing 0-3 start and they've got some far more difficult games on the horizon. Their next one comes against an improved Brooklyn team. After that, they play road games at OKC, Dallas and San Antonio. Needless to say, none of those games will be easy. That makes taking care of business tonight all the more urgent.

Philadelphia coach Brett Brown knows the Wizards are going to come out a determined bunch. He had this to say: "They're going to want to make amends, we're going to have a much more difficult game."

Although they came up short, the Wizards are off arguably their best performance of the season. They fought hard against Miami, trimming a 23-point lead to seven.

Washington coach Randy Wittman noted: "This is how we've got to play. Nobody wants to lose but I thought we took a good step in the right direction."

This has been one of the Wizards' best roles the past couple of seasons, as we find them at 30-16 ATS the last 46 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. I believe that they bring a little more to the table and I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 10*

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Lakers have gotten a couple of wins without Kobe. However, they got hammered by 31 points in their lone game away from LA and I expect them to struggle again tonight.

The Mavs also lost their lone road game. However, they're 2-0 here at Dallas, winning by nine and 12 points. The 12-point win came in their most recent game, a 111-99 victory over Memphis.

Now, the Mavs get to face an LA team which has long given them trouble. I don't expect them to show the Lakers any sympathy/mercy because Kobe isn't in the lineup. They'd like nothing better than to kick the Lakers while they're down.

Note that the Lakers are an awful 15-33 ATS the past couple of seasons, after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game.

The Mavs are in one of their better roles. Indeed, they're 13-4 ATS (16-1 SU) the past couple of seasons as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

During the same stretch , the Lakers are 3-10 ATS (1-12 SU) as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. During that stretch, they're an ugly 28-54-1 ATS on the road overall, 23-38 ATS as underdogs overall. I expect a double-digit win for the well-rested home team. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. At first glance, it might seem a bit funny to see the undefeated 76'ers catching this many points on their home floor. However, while the 76'ers have certainly off to a great start, I believe the visiting Warriors are favored by this many for good reason.

I successfully played against the Warriors in their only road game this season. However, that was vs. the Clippers and the Warriors were off a game the previous night. That's not the case here. The 76'ers aren't nearly as talented as the Clippers, nor are the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back games. Even including the Halloween loss at LA, the Warriors are still a lucrative 46-34-1 ATS on the road, the past 2+ seasons.

With the Warriors averaging 112.7 points and the 76'ers averaging 110, we're seeing a very high O/U line. While every season is obviously different, that hasn't been a good situation for the 76'ers over the years. Indeed, they're just 5-17-1 ATS the last 23 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more, going 15-33-1 ATS their last 49 with an O/U line of 210 or more overall.

While the 76'ers are 13-20 ATS (9-24 SU) against teams which average 99 or more points, the Warriors are 29-18 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when facing a team which allows 99 or more points per game. Facing their first Western Conference foe of the season, I expect the 76'ers to get a dose of reality. 10*

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. Many are going to see this matchup and automatically assume a victory for the Nuggets. I don't think we should be so quick to that though.

True, the Nuggets made the playoffs again last season. However, they also lost in the first round, again. That led to some major offseason changes. When the smoke cleared, the Nuggets lost both George Karl (the reigning Coach of the Year) and general manager Masai Ujiri, the Executive of the Year. Even Ujiri's assistant, Pete D'Alessandro, left.

Introduced as the new general manager, Tim Connelly immediately stated this his first priority was re-signing star player Andre Iguodala. That didn't happen though, as A.I. left for Golden State.

Brian Shaw was a hot commodity and was probably a good hire at coach. However, he's got an entirely different philosophy from Karl. So, we can't necessarily expect immediate success.

In addition to losing Iguodala, the Nuggets also start the season without Danilo Gallinari, another of the team's top scorers. While Kenneth Faried (hamstring) is probable, Ty Lawson (groin) is currently questionable.

The Kings also have seen some offseason changes. However, while I believe the Nuggets are likely going to take a step back this season, I like the moves in Sacramento.

I like Malone's attitude at coach. I like that he ripped the team after a poor practice on Monday, letting them know they need to get serious. Immediately.

Lets not forget that the Kings' home record was actually better than the Nuggets' road record last season. I expect them to tip things off with a win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on MIAMI. While Game 6 didn't go the way I wanted, it was certainly exciting. I also believe that it sets up Game 7 very well.

One could easily use stats to make a case for either team. I believe homecourt and confidence/momentum will prove more important than anything else.

Having seen how close the Spurs were to winning Game 6 and knowing that they covered the entire way, many bettors will likely be quick to grab the points.

I believe that the Spurs had their opportunity though and that they won't get another one on Thursday night.

Losing in that fashion figures to be deflating for the Spurs. Winning in that manner has to make the Heat feel invincible.

There is certainly a lot of pressure on Lebron and the Heat. Now, in my opinion, the Spurs will also be feeling the pressure.

This entire series, in the eyes of most, the Spurs have been underdogs to win the title. However, that changed they were up double-digits in the second half of Game 6 - and leading the way they were in the final minute. The series was theirs.

Despite failing to cover Tuesday, the Heat are now 46-7 at home, outscoring opposing teams by more than 10 points.

After a number of close games early in last year's Finals, the Heat closed out the Thunder with a 15-point win in the final game of the series. I won't be surprised to see another double-digit win here. 10*

I'm playing on MIAMI. You guys know the story-line already. The champs are down 3-2 but heading home. They're off a blowout loss and now need to win two in a row. Some are writing them off but I expect them to pull it off.

Lets remember that the Spurs were 23-18 on the road in the season while the Heat were 37-4 at home. Lets also remember what happened last game here - a 103-84 blowout win for the champs.

Including their last loss here, the Spurs are a modest 6-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series and only 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

Including that Game 2 victory, the Heat are 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were trailing in a playoff series and 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

While the Spurs have obviously had excellent success in the Finals over the years, the Heat are still the defending champs. And, as we hear Rudy Tomjanovich proclaim before each of these games: "Don't ever underestimate the heart of champion." I'm not going to do so. With James at his best and an improved defensive effort, I expect the Heat to extend the series, covering the number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MIAMI. As you're surely aware, the Spurs dominated Game 3 and have a 2-1 lead in the series. While I lost with them last game, I'm not writing off the champs yet.

The Heat are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were trailing in a playoff series. They've been in that situation twice this season, most recently in Game 2 of this series. They responded with a 103-84 win. When trailing the Bulls, they responded with an even bigger blowout, winning 115-78.

Its also worth noting that the Heat have won 22 of 30 - and seven of their last nine - after a double-digit loss.

Its worth noting that Parker is reported to have a hamstring strain. While I won't necessarily count on it effecting his play, its definitely not going to help him.

Lebron had this to say about tonight's game: "Something has to give tomorrow night. They have a championship pedigree. They have four titles. We have two. So something has to give. We'll see what happens. We

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Heat dominated the second half in Game 2 and I believe that they'll carry the momentum into Game 3.

The Heat were the best team in the league this season and when they play like they did in the second half of Game 2, they're very hard to beat - regardless of venue.

The Heat are typically at their best when tied in a series, going 9-3 ATS their last 12 in that situation, 4-0 ATS their last four.

While it wasn't the case the previous season, this year's Miami team has excelled when listed as an underdog. Its been as if they feel that, as champions, they should always be favored. Indeed, they've been listed as underdogs seven times this season and they rose to the occasion with outright wins in six of those. I expect them to be all business again tonight. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MIAMI. Down a game and desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole with three games at San Antonio to follow, the Heat are ready in a "must win" situation. I expect them to respond with their best game.

The Heat, who haven't lost two straight home games all season, have been in this situation before. In fact, in the previous three times that the Heat opened a playoff series with a Game 1 loss, they won the following four games. It happened last month against the Bulls in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Heat are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they attempted to avenge a home loss and 16-9 ATS their last 25 in the "revenge role" overall. They're also 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were trailing in a playoff series.

The Heat understand how important this game is. Wade had the following to say: "It's very urgent. Obviously you don't want to go down 0 2 going to San Antonio for three straight games. Odds are not that good. They are not in our favor. We're not a team that really says too much like, 'This is a must win game.' But this is a must win game."

I expect James, Wade and co. to "up their game," play with a sense of urgency and ultimately earn a win and cover. 10* Finals GOY

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Spurs had a much easier time in the Conference Finals than the Heat did. They swept the Grizzlies while the Heat were forced to go to seven games against the Pacers. The Heat were fortunate with the schedule though. Despite going the distance vs. Indiana, they still get a couple of days off before the finals start. That means that they should be well-rested, which isn't always the case for a team that goes to Game 7.

On the other hand, the Spurs are playing with a lot of extra rest. They last played way back on 5/27. I won't be at all surprised if there's some "rust." Note that they're just 1-3-1 ATS the last five times that they were off a SU win as an underdog.

The Heat know first hand that an extended break isn't always an advantage in the first game of a series. When playing with multiple days between games, they lost outright vs. Chicago and needed OT to beat Indiana by a single point

While the Heat are 0-2 ATS when playing with extended rest in the playoffs, they're 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) the last 12 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. The last time (5/13) they were in that situation, they went on the road and beat Chicago by 23 points. In the first round, when playing with two day's rest, they won and covered vs. the Bucks, another double-digit win.

The Heat, 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, have been dominant here all season and both their last two games here resulted in double-digit wins. I believe they've had their wake-up call and I expect them to bring their "A-Game" right out of the gate. Ultimately, I expect that to least to another convincing win and cover. 10* Main Event