I'm playing on FLORDIA GULF GOAST.  I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Eagles are off an OT win, the type of victory which can provide a team with positive momentum. That was their fourth straight victory. Last time that they were off an OT win, they won their next game by double-digits. On the other hand, the Owls are off a tough 2-point loss, the type of defeat which can be deflating to a team. The Owls won 77-53 in this season's earlier meeting. The Eagles don't get blown out like that often and they've had this game circled, as a result. With a current O/U line of 146 or 146.5, note that the Owls are just 4-7 ATS (0-11 SU!) the past 11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. During the same span, the Eagles were 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU!) when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. Payback time. 

I'm playing on NEVADA. Both teams have struggled lately. The Wolf Pack have considerably more talent though and they got back on track in a big way last game. They went on the road and beat Utah State by double-digits, avenging an earlier ugly home loss. That's the type of victory which can provide postitive momentum and I expect that to be the case here. The Spartans, on the other hand, are off yet another double-digit loss. The worst team in the conference has now dropped 12 straight, the vast majority of those losses were of the "blowout variety." These teams will play again, at San Jose State, on Thursday. Knowing this to be the case and with their own losing streak only recently finished, the Wolf Pack will keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Laying -15.5, the Wolfpack beat the Spartans by 18 in the last meeting. I see an even bigger margin of victory happening tonight. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets won big in this season's earlier meeting, at Charlotte. I expect them to give their hosts all that they can handle again this evening. The Wolves were fortunate to eke out a cover at Indiana on Sunday. This will be their first game back home from a road trip. Note that they play tomorrow, too. The Hornets, who have tomorrow off, have had the past couple of days off. They last played on 2/12. That's noteworthy as they're 5-1 ATS the past six times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 in that situation. The Hornets, who hammered the Wolves here last season, won by 22 the last time that they played on the road. In fact, they're 3-0 ATS on the road since 1/26, two big wins and a cover at Boston. They score 115.4 ppg on the road compared to Minnesota's 109.2 at home. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. Admittedly, the Bears have underachieved so far this season. There's a long way to go though. Their sub-par results have kept this line very low, despite the fact that they're (arguably) a more talented team, playing at home. The Bears already won the first meeting, at South Carolina State. Remember, Morgan State was the preseason favorite to win the conference with the #1 ranked backcourt and #2 ranked frontcourt. While the Bulldogs are averaging a respectable 70.6 ppg on the road, the Bears are outscoring visiting teams by a 90.6 to 69 average score, here at Morgan State. The Bulldogs have come a long way from last year but they're still not ready to go on the road and beat the Bears. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers painfully blew the cover in Friday's loss to the Cavs. Despite the fact that they ultimately lost by seven, I liked what I saw from the new lineup. Now, they've got a game under their belt, I'm expecting their best effort this afternoon. The T-Wolves have been a bit of a streaky team. Currently, they're at the end of a road trip and off b2b double-digit losses. They allowed 132 and 134 points in those games. That's noteworthy as the Wolves are only 10-20-1 ATS (10-21 SU) the past 31 times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 21-39-1 ATS in that situation. This season's earlier meeting, played at Minnesota, came down to the wire. The Wolves won by two. The previous meeting, which was the most recent here at Indiana, was also very close. The Pacers won by four. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the past five in the series. Though they've struggled against teams from the East, the Pacers are a profitable 15-6 ATS against Western Conference teams. Grab the points.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While both clubs are playing their second game in two days, not all b2b spots are equal. The Cavs had to fight really hard to come back to win at Indiana last night. Stepping up in class to face the 76'ers, I expect last night's game to take a toll on them today. The 76'ers also played last night. However, they had an easier win than Cleveland. Also, they didn't have to travel at all, as their game was here. Additionally and importantly, the 76'ers had two nights off, prior to the b2b situation. That's not the case for the Cavs, as they played Wednesday. So, this makes it three games in four days for Cleveland but not for Philadelphia. The 76'ers won by 20 the last time that these teams met. Schedule in their favor, I see them also winning this one by double-digits. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers will look a lot different tonight. I expect the new additions to provide an immediate spark. These teams just met at Cleveland, on 2/6. Playing at home, the Cavs got the win and cover. The Cavs also beat the Pacers (by only four) when the teams played at Cleveland, on 1/2. The revenge-minded Pacers have finally have homecourt in their favor tonight though; they've had their way with the Cavs here over the years. They've had the past couple of days off and they also get tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Cavs played Wednesday and they've got a big showdown with the 76'ers on the deck tomorrow night. With the Pacers a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, I'm grabbing the points

I'm playing on MANHATTAN. The Hawks won big when these teams met at Monmouth. Playing on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Jaspers to give them all that they can handle. Note that two meetings here last season were both very close, decided by two and five points, respectively. The Hawks haven't been playing well lately. They're 1-4 ATS their last five games, hitting only 37.5% of their field goals, during that 5-game stretch. Last time out, the Hawks got destroyed 83-58 by Marist, a team which Manhattan recently defeated. (The Hawks were also hammered by Marist earlier in the season and followed up the loss by losing their next game.) On the season, the Hawks average 68 ppg on the road, while hitting 43% of their field goals. On the other hand, the Jaspers average 75.7 ppg at home while connecting on 49.4% of their field goals. The Hawks are 4-7-1 ATS their last 12 as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6.5 range. During that span, the Jaspers are 4-2 ATS after having failed to cover their previous three games. Grab the points with the revenge-minded home team. 

I'm playing on FSU. Both teams are on 4-game losing streaks. Playing at home, Florida State will be the team that snaps its skid. Due largely to injury issues, the Seminoles have under-achieved so far this season. This is still a really well-coached and talented team though. The same cannot be said of Pittsburgh. I expect a date with the Panthers, 0-5 ATS their last five as road underdogs, to prove to be just what the doctor ordered. Note that all five of those road losses came by a minimum of 13 points, most by a lot more than that. Yes, the Noles remain banged-up. They're a deep team though and that depth will serve them well here. Keep in mind that the Panthers scored only 47 points in getting blown out last time. As Pitt coach Jeff Capel acknowledged after that game: "... It's not going to get easier ... " While the Panthers average less than 60 ppg on the road, the Noles still average a respectable 76.6 ppg at home. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS the past four in the series. The Noles were laying -10.5 for the last meeting here and won by 15. Desperate for a victory, they won't let this opportunity slip by. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The T-Wolves just faced the Pistons in b2b games. To their credit, they won and covered both. However, both games were a lot closer than the scores indicated; the Wolves were arguably fortunate to cover in both. Either way, games against the Pistons tend to make teams look a little better than they actually are. I feel that the Wolves are a little over-valued in this one and I expect the Kings to give them all that they can handle. The Kings are quietly playing well themselves. They're 3-0 ATS in February, 2-0 SU their last two home games. They've got more home wins than Minnesota has road wins. They're also 5-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. They beat the Wolves the last time that the teams met here and I see them scoring the upset again this evening. 

I'm playing on UNLV. The Falcons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a blowout loss at Utah State, the Rebels will be looking to take out their anger on someone. They're 3-1 ATS/4-0 SU off a conference loss. The Utah State loss was the Rebels' third double-digit defeat since 12/4. After the first, they bounced back with a 20-point home win. After the second, they bounced back and beat a strong Colorado State team, on the road, by 14. Air Force, which is off b2b double-digit losses and which is averaging only 56 ppg on the road, is just 1-6 ATS the past seven times it was a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. The Rebels beat Nevada by 11 the last time that they were on this floor. They beat Air Force 80-52 the last time that the teams played here. Knowing that their next two are on the road, look for the Rebels to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN COLORADO. These teams just met on Saturday, at Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks had a great shot at holding serve at home, as they had a 5-point lead at halftime. Ultimately, however, the Bears won by three. Having come that close, only to fall short, stings and will take a toll on the Lumberjacks. They had their opportunity to salvage a split in this 2-game home-and-home series but they failed to capitalize. Now, that opportunity has passed them by. The Bears are the superior team and they're considerably stronger at home. They average 82.2 ppg (48.8% field goals) here. The Lumberjacks, on the other hand, average 62.7 ppg (38.6% field goals) on the road. With an O/U line currently in the high 140s, note that the Lumberjacks are 0-4-1 ATS (0-5 SU) the past five times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 145 to 149.5. The Bears had their wake-up call Saturday. Tonight, they'll deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. These teams met on 1/25, at Toronto. Playing at home, the Raptors won and covered. With this evening's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to return the favor.  Yes, the Raptors have played well since the earlier meeting and they're off a big win. Those results have been factored in to the line though as we're now able to get Charlotte as an underdog, as a result. Also, note that Toronto is just 3-8 ATS when off a double-digit win. The Hornets were -2.5 point favorites the last time that they hosted the Raptors. They won by 10. On the season, the Hornets are 14-10 (15-9 ATS) at home, the Raptors are 12-11 on the road. A few recent losses notwithstanding, the Hornets are 17-7 ATS their last 24 against teams with a winning record. The Hornets are also 9-5 ATS off a double-digit loss and 8-4-1 ATS (9-4 SU) after having allowed 105 or fewer points, in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and cool off the Raptors.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans again on Monday, at New Orleans, the Rockets are going to go all out to "hold serve" at home this evening. They already hammered the Pelicans in this season's earlier meeting here and they won their last game here (Cleveland) by double-digits. I backed them in that one and feel that this is another strong spot to do so. The Pelicans are at the end of a road trip. Even with a couple of recent wins, they're still 9-19 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 109.3 to 103. I noted the following before the win over the Cavs: "Admittedly, the Rockets have been inconsistent. However, they've had their moments. Recall the earlier 7-game winning streak. They've beaten teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz. When they're fully motivated and at their best, they can actually be pretty good. I expect that to be the case this evening ..." In the front end of a home-and-home set, I feel the same way here. The Pelicans are only 6-10 ATS against teams with a losing record and they're just 5-10 ATS (3-12 SU!) when playing a game with an O/U line above 220. Grab the points but expect the outright win.

I'm playing on STANFORD. While they came up short vs. Washington State last time out, the Cardinal have won three of their last five. They nearly beat the Huskies up in Seattle. Washington ultimately won by three points. Catching them on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Cardinal to get some payback. The game in Seattle had an O/U line in the low 140s. With today's rematch being played at Stanford, where a stingy Cardinal team can more effectively dictate the pace, the O/U line is in the mid 130s. That's noteworthy as Washington is an ugly 11-27 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Note that Washington allows 76.6 ppg on the road while Stanford allows 66.4 ppg at home. While the Huskies won at Cal last time out, they lost by 14, the last time that they were off a road win. The Cardinal, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS its last three when attempting to avenge a road loss, have dominated the Huskies here for years. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the past five meetings overall and they won the most recent meeting here at Stanford by 16. I'm expecting them to pull away for another win and cover this afternoon. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The home team has taken both meetings so far this season. The Thunder won by two at OKC. That was followed by a 16-point win by the Kings, here at Sacramento. The previous two games in the series, here at Sacramento, also resulted in big wins for the Kings. Sacramento won by 16 and 28 points. Tonight, in addition to having the venue in their favor, the Kings also have the schedule working for them. They had last night off while the Thunder are off a win up in Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Thunder will also be playing their third game in the past four days. It's this type of tough scheduling spot where the injury to Gilgeous-Alexander (and others) will catch up to them. Playing the second of b2b games, the Kings lost (but covered) at Golden State last time out. No shame in that. Prior to that, in their last home game, they beat Brooklyn by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on North Dakota. These teams have equally poor W/L records. The Mavericks are 4-19, the Fighting Hawks are 4-20. Those similar numbers have kept the pointspread reasonably low. While I'm aware that the Mavs have enjoyed success as small road underdogs over the years, I feel that this line could easily be higher. The reality is that the Fighting Hawks are stronger on both sides of the ball this season, at least when playing on their home floor. They average 72.9 ppg at home and allow 72.5. The Mavs, on the other hand, score 59.2 ppg on the road and allow 85.3. They're 0-11 away from home. The Mavs already hammered the Hawks, at Omaha. They also won last season's first meeting. However, North Dakota bounced back and won the second game by double-digits. Today, the revenge-minded Fighting Hawks will leave it all on the floor, avenging the earlier loss and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Admittedly, the Rockets have been inconsistent. However, they've had their moments. Recall the earlier 7-game winning streak. They've beaten teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz. When they're fully motivated and at their best, they can actually be pretty good. I expect that to be the case this evening. This is the final leg of a 4-game homestand. The first three games were against tough Western Conf. opponents and the Rockets stumbled. They don't want to go winless in the four games. They also have a score to settle as the Cavs hammered them, at Cleveland. That was the front end of a b2b for the Rockets; they had a revenge game against the Knicks on deck the next day. That's not the case here. They had yesterday off and they get tomorrow off. Their full attention and focus is on the task at hand. Only two of the Cavs' past seven games have come on the road. They lost both those games; they're just 1-5 ATS their past six overall. Rubio and Sexton are out for the season but the Cavs are also expected to be without Markkanen and Garland. While the Cavs eked out a 93-90 home win last time out, they're just 15-39-2 ATS (14-42 SU) the past 56 times that they scored 100 or less in their previous game. I'll happily grab the points but I look for the revenge-minded Rockets to score the upset. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. I used the Bonnies as my A-10 GOY on 1/15, in their game against VCU. Listed as small favorites, they hammered the Rams by a 73-53 score. I started my analysis of that game by saying the following: "Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by less than four points ..." I provided that excerpt as I feel much the same way. Once again, the Bonnies' struggles at the betting window have kept this line reasonably low, providing excellent value. Once again, I expect a visit from a quality team to be "just what the doctor ordered" to get the Bonnies playing up to their potential. The Bonnies are now 7-1 at home. Despite having hosted some tough teams, they're outscoring their guests by an average score of 77 to 67. The Wildcats embarrassed the Bonnies here in 2020. However, the Bonnies bounced back to win both last year's meetings, including an 11-point win on this floor. Expect them to improve to 40-10 SU the last 50 times that they were favored, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Celtics handled the Heat early in the season, a 95-78 blowout at Miami. While it may be tempting to back the revenge-minded Heat, I feel that Miami will have to wait for its chance to get some payback. It took awhile but I really like what I'm seeing from the Celtics right now. They won their last game, at New Orleans, by 10. They also won their last game on this floor by 53 points. They're 3-1 SU/ATS their past four, the lone loss coming at Atlanta, against the red hot Hawks. Note that the Celtics have tomorrow off; they're going to leave it all on the floor this evening. The Heat are generally tough (18-6) at home but they're only mediocre (14-12 SU) on the road. It should be noted that the Heat were just upset by Toronto in their last game and they face those same Raptors again tomorrow. Though they had yesterday off, the Heat will still be playing their fourth game in the past six days. The Celtics are 12-8 ATS their last 20, when off a game where they held their opponent to 105 or fewer points. While I obviously respect the Heat, homecourt in their favor, I say the Celtics build off their strong defensive performance with another win and cover this evening.

I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Tide have underachieved of late and are off a disappointing loss. However, this is an extremely talented team and I believe that a visit from Baylor will prove to be just what they need to get going. Note that the subpar results are reflected in the line; we're getting extra line value as a result of them. Alabama coach Nate Oats had this to say: "We continue to have these issues with playing up and down to the level of our competition ..." In this case, with such a high profile visitor, I expect them to "play up" to their competition. Keep in mind that this game will be played at Tuscaloosa; the Tide are 9-1 here on the season. The lone loss was by four points vs. Auburn. While the Tide were favored for the Auburn game, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. To their credit, the Bears have played really well. They've absolutely got another excellent team. That said, they lost a lot from last season, as they only returned one starter. This afternoon, those personnel losses catch up to them as the Tide rise to the occasion and avenge a close loss Waco, three years ago.

I'm playing on ORLANDO. It doesn't happen often but the Magic find themselves listed as (small) favorites. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. These teams have already met twice. The Pistons won both games. Both those games were at Detroit though. Playing with "double-revenge" will provide the Magic with some added motivation. While the Magic defense has admittedly been poor at home, the Pistons defense is even worse on the road. They allow 115 ppg, when playing away from Detroit. Host teams make 48.8% of their field goals against the Pistons. (That's the worst road defense, in terms of opponents field goal percentage) in the entire NBA. While they stumbled against the Clippers last time out, the Magic hammered the Bulls 114-95 in their previous game. That's arguably more impressive than anything that the Pistons have recently accomplished. They're 1-5 their last six, 0-3 their last three. The lone win came by two against Sacramento. The Magic are actually a solid 27-18-1 ATS (33-13 SU) as favorites the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on that 60% record on Friday evening. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Pirates are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams are at the opposite end of the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers are arguably the best team. Certainly, they're among the best. The Pirates are, perhaps, the worst. Indeed, they scored a mere 36 points in their last game, giving up 79. Yes, the Tigers have been dealing with some missing players and that's led to them going through a tough stretch. Still, I like the way that they eked out a road win at Tulsa last game. Now, back home with confidence restored and stepping down in class to face an inferior opponent, I expect them to deliver a blowout. Added motivation stems from the fact they lost by a single point, less than two weeks ago, at East Carolina. Note that the Tigers are 8-4 ATS their last 12, when attempting to avenge a road loss. Off their dismal effort at Houston, note that the Pirates are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they scored 60 or less in their previous game. I say this one gets ugly. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL. The Golden Eagles have been playing very well. They beat the Pirates by a single point in this season's earlier meeting, at Marquette. The Pirates found out that winning on the road, in the Big East, can be tough. This evening, I expect the Eagles to discover the same. While the Eagles outscore teams by a modest 71.7 to 70.4 average score on the road, the Pirates outscore visiting teams by a dominating 81.6 to 66 margin. The Pirates just lost (badly) to St. John's after having beaten the Red Strom two days earlier. (Sweeping teams in the Big East can be tough, too.) Their previous four home games were against the likes of Villanova, UConn, Rutgers and Texas. So, they've hosted some tough recent opponents. While its a very competitive Big East conference this year, the Pirates are one of the stronger teams in it. They'll remind everyone of that this evening, improving to 10-1 ATS their last 11, when off a double-digit loss at home. 

I'm playing on UCLA. These are two strong teams and this should be a good game. Though I don't expect to need them, getting points, at home, with the Bruins is providing us with excellent value. Note that UCLA is 3-0 ATS the past three times it was a home underdog of three or less, 13-7 ATS its last 20 in that role. The Bruins were slight favorites when they hosted the Wildcats last season. They won by 14. The Wildcats are off a game Sunday and they're playing their third road game since 1/20. They're just 9-12 ATS their past 21, when playing with one day's rest in between games. UCLA played Saturday, so has had an extra day's worth of rest. While the Cats can score with the best of them, the Bruins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they faced a team which scores 77 or more points per game, through the first 15 games of the season. Note that while Arizona averages more ppg overall, the Bruins average more per game at home, than the Cats do on the road. The Bruins had some early season issues with injury and Covid delays etc. However, this team is one of the best in the country and its been slowly rounding into form. A visit from the Wildcats and fans at Pauley Pavilion for the first time in two months will be just what the doctor ordered. *10 UCLA

I'm playing on GSW. The Warriors won't have all hands on deck but they're still going to have enough to take care of business at home tonight. While the Mavs are a mediocre 12-11 away from Dallas, the Warriors are a dominant 21-4 at home. Having been embarrassed at Dallas earlier this month, the night that Dirk's number got retired, and also the last time that the Mavs visited here, the Warriors will be all business tonight. The Warriors are 9-5 ATS (12-2 SU) their last 14, when playing with revenge. The Mavs, meanwhile, are just 7-11 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer points in their previous game. Curry played poorly in the earlier meeting but he'll be better tonight. Payback time. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. The Red Raiders are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Kansas plays with revenge from earlier loss at Lubbock. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. With Kentucky on deck, they're going to want a big win here. I watched the Red Raiders win over WVU closely and they were fortunate to get the cover. Yet, that result has worked in four favor by helping keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been.That was at home. Now, they're at their least favorite venue; the Jayhawaks 14-3 ATS (16-1 SU) their last 17 as a host in the series. The Raiders won't be helped that they're also suddenly dealing with some Covid issues. Expect the revenge-mined Jayhawks to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, on Monday evening

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. Prior to the season, the Bengals were projected to finish ahead of the Eagles. Now, though we're still in January, the Eagles are laying a handful of points against them, despite the game being played at Idaho State. I believe that's asking too much. These teams split a pair of meetings last year; both were at Eastern Washington. The Eagles brought back one starter from that team, the Bengals brought back all five. So, they know that they can compete with and defeat this team. The Bengals' last three games were against Weber State (twice) and Southern Utah. Those are the strongest teams in the conference. So, they weren't expected to win. The Eagles aren't in that class though. I say the Bengals bounce back and move to 7-3 ATS their last 10, after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets are off a loss. After this game, they've got a long road trip. It starts at Detroit, with a rematch against the Pistons. That makes taking care of business on their home floor absolutely mandatory. Catching the Pistons at the end of a road trip, I expect the motivated Nuggets to deliver a blowout. The Nuggets were laying -11.5 when they hosted the Pistons last year. They jumped out to a 20-point lead by halftime and cruised to a 15-point win. Tonight, off the Memphis loss, I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas. The Pistons are 4-20 away from Detroit and get outscored by a 115-101 avg score. Host teams hit 48.7% of their field goals against Detroit; terrible defense. This remains one of the tougher venues in the league. Expect a one-sided affair. 

I'm playing on OKC. Off a sub-par showing last night, the Thunder will be hungry to bounce back with a better performance. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Cavs narrowly beat them, at OKC, only a week ago. Even with last night's loss, the Thunder have still quietly gone an outstanding 55-33-2 ATS their last 90 road games. They're 9-6 ATS off a double-digit loss and 9-4 ATS after having lost their previous three. The Cavs are also off a blowout loss. They're only 25-44-3 ATS (17-55 SU) their past 72, off a double-digit loss though. While the Cavs may be the fresher team, OKC is the healthier one. The Thunder won here last season and I expect them to bring their best effort again tonight. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. In a game that could be close, I'm happy to get points. That said, I expect the Bears to win this one outright. Both teams have strong frontcourts, perhaps the two best in the MEAC. However, the Bears also possess arguably the best backcourt in the conference. While the team is improved this season, Howard isn't used to laying points on the road. Why? The Bison are 1-5 SU their last six on the road, 2-19 their last 21. Off a tough loss against Notre Dame, a game where they left it all on the floor and their third straight defeat, the Bison still could easily be thinking about what could have been. While the competition has admittedly been soft, a 3-point loss here last game notwithstanding, the Bears have been tough at home. They've handled Howard here over the years; I look for them to dig deep and get it done.

I'm playing on UTAH. The Pistons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. On a rare slide, 0-2 their last two and 1-6 SU/ATS their last six, the Jazz are going to be angry. Make that "really angry," when considering that one of those losses came by double-digits, at Detroit. Utah was laying -11 for that game, too. So, that was a game they were absolutely expected to win, which will make getting some "proper payback" mandatory for them tonight. Yes, the Jazz will be without Mitchell. That's helped keep the line a little lower than it otherwise could have been though. He's a strong player but the Jazz have plenty of backcourt depth. The Pistons, on the other hand, are less equipped to deal with their missing players. The Pistons eked out a 133-131 win at Sacramento last game, helping to win our 'over' play. They're just 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight off an 'upset' win though, 10-23-2 ATS (5-30 SU) their last 35 in that situation. The Jazz have dominated the Pistons for years. They're 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS the past five meetings here, three of those victories coming by more than 20 points. Look for the revenge-minded Jazz to deliver another one-sided blowout.

I'm playing on LIU. The Seahawks are tough. No question about it. They returned everyone from the team which finished first in the NEC (regular season) last year. They've got arguably the top backcourt in the conference. That said, the Sharks may have the top frontcourt and their pace and style gives the Seahawks trouble. The Sharks faced these same Seahawks twice last season. With all the Covid issues in NYC, both games were at Wagner. Yet, LIU won one outright (77-66) and lost the other by only two points. Now, the Sharks get to host the Seahawks. That's noteworthy as they're undefeated here on the season, 4-1 ATS in lined games. Off a 95-64 beating of Farleigh Dickinson, the Sharks are full of confidence. While Wagner averages 64.7 ppg on the road, LIU averages 87.8 ppg at home. The Sharks won by eight the last time that the teams met here. Grab the points and expect them to again give their guests everything that they can handle.

I'm playing on DRAKE. The Bulldogs have been winning but not covering. Those results have worked in our favor, as they've kept the pointspread reasonable. As I'm expecting a double-digit win, I feel we're getting excellent value. Note that Drake is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three, as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. A few narrow ATS losses notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are the real deal. They returned every starter from a team that went 15-3 in the MVC last season, 26-5 overall. The Braves have lost three straight on the road. Last time out, they lost by nine, at Illinois State. This is a much tougher venue and Bulldogs are far stronger than the Redbirds. The Braves are now 10-17-2 ATS (7-22 SU) on the road, the past 2+ seasons. The Braves average less than 70 ppg on the road, the Bulldogs avg more than 80 at home. The Bulldogs beat them by 13 the last time the teams played on this floor. Don't be surprised by an even greater margin of victory tonight. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The T-Wolves have been playing well for some time now while the Hawks have been struggling. This one sets up nicely for Atlanta though. The Hawks finally turned the corner last game, as they beat the Bucks. I backed them in that game and stated that a visit from the defending champs, a playoff rematch, was just what they needed to get going. Off that much-needed win, the Hawks had yesterday off. I expect Young and co. to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. While the Hawks were resting yesterday, the Wolves played an emotional (2-point win) game at MSG. I like that they had to really fight hard and I also like that they won. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, after having won the previous night, the Wolves scored only 88 points. This will mark their third game in the past four days. Minnesota is just 66-101 ATS over the years, against teams from the Southeast, 1-4 ATS this season. The Hawks already won big at Minnesota and they swept the Wolves last season. Schedule in their favor, expect them to continue their recent success in the series this evening. 

I'm playing on CSU BAKERSFIELD. The Mustangs were a dismal 1-15 in conference play last season, 4-20 overall. To their credit, they've already matched the four wins this season and have already won a Big West game. That said, it's still going to be another long season and tonight, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Roadrunners have started 0-2 in conference play. With four of their next five on the road, they know that they absolutely need to take advantage of a visit from the Mustangs. The Mustangs managed 82 points last game. However, that was at home and they haven't shot well on the road. Also, note that they're 1-7 SU the past eight time that they scored 80 or more, in their previous game. While Cal Poly averages 60.3 ppg (39.8% fg) shooting on the road, Bakersfield averages 74.6 ppg (45.9% fg) at home. These teams met twice last January. The Roadrunners won by 13 and 17 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory.

I'm playing on LA. The Jazz certainly looked dominant at Denver last night. However, they were catching the Nuggets playing the second of b2b games. The shoe is on the other foot this evening though. The Jazz played in the altitude of Denver last night while the Lakers rested. They've been mediocre, at best, when playing the second of b2b games. They're 3-4 SU/ATS in that situation this season, 14-16 ATS their past 30. Last time that the Jazz played the second of b2b games, they got pounded by the Pacers. The Lakers are going to be desperate. They've still won four of their past five games here. They're also 6-2 ATS their last eight against the Jazz. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN. I really like the setup for the Huskies. I also really like that we don't need to worry about laying any points. The Huskies just finished a lengthy road trip, one which dated back to last year. They stumbled in their first game back home. They're absolutely going to be desperate for a victory. Keep in mind that the Huskies brought back most of the team which went 8-2 in conference action last year. They're very well-coached and they won't have forgotten that the Blue Hens upset them here last season, or that the Blue Hens hammered them at Delaware last year. I respect the Blue Hens. They also returned a lot from last year and they should be fairly solid within the CAA. That said, this is a tough spot for them. While the Huskies will now be playing their second straight home game, the Blue Hens will be playing the final game of a 5-game road trip. They'll be starting to get road weary and will be looking forward to finally returning home. Off a loss at Hofstra Saturday, note that the Blue Hens are just 8-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons,when playing with one day or less worth of rest between games. The Huskies are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday evening. 

I'm playing on IONA. This is a mismatch. The Gaels are much stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They'll finish at, or near, the top of the MAAC. The Purple Eagles, on the other hand, are likely destined to finish in the middle of the pack, or near the bottom. The Gaels knocked the Eagles out of the (conference) tournament last year, winning by six at a neutral site. This year's Iona team is arguably even stronger. Prior to the season, Rick Pitino acknowledged as much: "... it's a much better team than last year's team." I like that the Gaels have been winning, but not covering, as that has helped in keeping this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. Note that they're 15-8 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. Consider that Iona was just laying -15.5 against Manhattan, a team arguably more talented than Niagara. I also like that Pitino has been unhappy with his team and demanding more. Afte the 8-point win over Manhattan, he was quoted saying: "I don't think we're playing great basketball right now and that bothers me. Where am I at in the season right now? I'm not pleased. It's up to us to do something about it. We're certainly happy with winning any game. But we're not happy with the way we played against Marist. We're not happy with the way we played against Saint Louis. And we're certainly not happy with the way we shot free throws tonight." With a tough game at Monmouth on deck, I say Pitino keeps the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. He'll recognize that a blowout win would be great for morale/momentum and that's what I expect his team to deliver this afternoon.

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have been off for some time; their last game was on 1/1. That 2-week break came at the right time. At the time, they were road-weary and not playing their best. The break offered time to recharge and regroup. Facing instate rival Idaho in their first game back is ideal. The Bengals are a respectable team which was playing badly. The Vandals are just a bad team. Idaho State brought back five starters from last season. Idaho brought back one. Those experienced Bengal players will be happy to see a team which they beat won both meetings against last season. (One win came by 26 points. The other was by six.) Both teams are 0-4 to start conference play. However, while the Vandals are allowing 88.2 ppg (49.6% fg) in their four loses, the Bengals are allowing just 68.5 ppg (41.5% fg) in theirs. Look for the Bengals to dictate the tempo and for their superior defense to ultimately lead to a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by leass than four points. The Rams are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they road underdogs of three or fewer points. They're 18-29 ATS their last 47 in that role. While the Rams are stingy on defense, they average only 63 points per game on offense. The Bonnies are averaging more than 70, more than 78 per game, here at home. The Bonnies make 47.7% of their field goals here compared to 41.2% on the road for VCU. The last meeting on this floor saw the Bonnies favored by three points. They won by a 70-54 score. The Rams' roll comes to an end here. 

I'm playing on COLGATE. I won with the Raiders in their last game. They crushed Army, 76-57. That victory snapped a losing streak and I expect it to provide positive momentum for the longtime class of the Patriot Conference. The Raiders went 50-16 the past four years in conference play. During that span, they became the first team in conference history to reach the championship game in four straight years. This year's team is flying under the radar at the moment, in my opinion. Keep in mind that the Raiders brought back four starters from last year. They're a well-coached and complete team. Navy is indeed tougher than Army. However, the Raiders can absolutely win this game outright. They beat the Midshipmen by seven points, each of the past two meetings. Navy's Greg Summers is questionable. With or without him, expect the Midshipmen to have their hands full the entire way. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the visitors score the outright win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. This is the first of three meetings between these teams, over the next nine days. They'll meet again, at Miami, on Friday. Knowing that the Heat are much better on their home floor (12-4 compared to 13-11) than on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. While the Hawks have really struggled over the past month or so, they're better than those results suggest and they're finally, slowly, getting healthy. Tonight, it's the Heat which will arguably be impacted more by missing players. While they didn't get the result that they wanted, I liked the improved defensive effort from the Hawks last game. Interim coach Jent noted: "I thought overall our defense was good. The transition defense, when can keep people out of transition, we give ourselves a chance. We didn't give the Clippers a fast-break basket in the first half ..." The Hawks won by 15 the last time that the teams played here. I see them digging deep and coming away with a much needed victory, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on UNLV. The Rebels are chomping at the bit to get a piece of the Lobos. The Rebels closed 2021 on a roll. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their final four games of the year; all four victories came by double-digits. They rang in 2022 with a close loss to a stingy San Diego State team. Then, they had their game against Air Force postponed. So, this is a team anxious to return to play and to get back to the way it was playing "last year." New Mexico should be the perfect opponent to get this year's first victory against. The Rebels won two 2021 meetings with the Lobos by 30 combined points. Unlike the Aztecs, who held UNLV to 55 points. The Lobos are not a good defensive team. That's particularly true when they're on the road. In five games, away from New Mexico, they're allowing an average of 83.8 points. Opposing teams are connecting on 47% of their field goals, in those games. On the other hand, the Rebels are allowing just 62.5 ppg at home, visiting teams hitting only 37.5% of their field goals. New Mexico lost players Muscadin (left team) and Manuel (suspension) in November and December. Both were expected to be a big part of this season's plans. Prior to the game vs. SDSU, the Rebels had scored 80 or more in three straight. Expect the offense to regain its form and for the Lobos to ultimately be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on NDSU. The Bison have dominated the Pioneers for years. NDSU has won six straight meetings winning by an average of 12 points. These teams are at opposite ends of the Summit Conference again this season. The Bison returned all five starters. In fact, they got back eight of their top nine scorers from last season, including each of their top six. Not many teams can say that. Denver certainly can't. The same Bison players beat Denver by 26 the last time the teams faced each other. While the Pioneers are off a victory, they haven't been able to string them together. All five of their previous victories have been followed by a loss. They even lost to Ottawa. Last time they were off a win, the Pioneers lost their next game by 17 points. The Bison have advantages all over the floor. They're stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They're 4-1 ATS their past five as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on NY. After playing at Brooklyn yesterday afternoon, at the end of a long road trip, one which began "last year," I don't expect the Spurs to have much left in the tank this evening. While they recently beat Boston, when playing the second of b2b games, this one sets up differently. Prior to that Boston game, the Spurs had been blown out by Toronto the previous day. They'd also had two days off, prior to that Toronto game. On the other hand, yesterday saw the Spurs lose a heartbreaker. They left it all on the floor and nearly scored the upset. In the end, however, they lost by two points, in OT. So, the first game of the b2b set was far more grueling (and gut-wrenching) this time. Also, unlike the setup for the previous b2b situation, this time, the Spurs are also playing their third game in four days. In fact, this will mark their fifth game in the past seven days. The Knicks, on the other hand, had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, after getting hammered by Boston on Saturday. The Knicks already won, at SA, by a dozen points. While the Spurs would love to avenge that loss, they're just 4-7 ATS (2-9 SU) their last 11, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for the Knicks to have fresher legs and for them to pull away for another double-digit win, improving to 15-8 ATS their last 23, against teams from the Southwest. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. The Badgers have played well. As per usual, they're solid. Top scorer Johnny Davis is going to be a handful. That said, when the smoke clears, I expect the Badgers to stumble against what I believe to be an undervalued Maryland team. Note that Wisconsin is 8-16 ATS, excluding pushes, the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. The Terps are loaded themselves. Talented and experienced. Remember, they entered the season with a higher ranking than Wisconsin. Their first two games of 2022 have both been on the road, at tough venues. So, there was no shame in losing both. (They went 1-1 ATS.) They closed out 2021 with b2b double-digit wins here at home though. Backing home, seeking that first conference victory, they're going to be giving it everything they've got. Maryland (interim) coach Danny Manning noted: "We can't wait to get back in front of our fans. We need their energy, their enthusiasm and their love." Look for that energy to prove to the difference, the Terps bouncing back with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on OKC. The Thunder are off a defensive dud last time out, as they allowed 135 points to the T-Wolves. That suited me just fine, as I had a play on the 'over.' Those types of games have been rare though, particularly at home. Despite failing to cover in that game, the Thunder are still 9-3 ATS their last 12 games. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS their last eight. The last time they were on the road, they lost by 14. I had a big play on the Thunder when they upset the Nuggets here on 12/22. Including a 108-94 loss in that game, the Nuggets are 3-2 their last five on the road. However, two of the three victories were by three points. So, only one of their last five road games has been a big win. That came against a terrible Houston team, which was playing the second of b2b games and the Nuggets still won by only 11. The Nuggets score 106 ppg and the Thunder are 13-4 ATS their last 17 against teams which average 108 or fewer points, per game. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I really like how this one sets up for the Red Wolves. Both teams played Thursday. The Red Wolves lost by six to a tough Louisiana team. The Warhawks won by eight against a relatively weak Arkansas Little Rock team. The Red Wolves narrowly missed the cover while the Warhawks covered by a bucket. Thursday's loss notwithstanding, the Red Wolves are a good team. Losses have been few and far between and they've responded to them with victories. Off their loss to Texas Tech, they bounced back and hammered Air Force by 22 points. They're 12-7-1 ATS their last 20, off a conference loss. They're also 15-5 ATS their last 20, excluding pushes, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. On the other hand, ULM is an ugly 4-17 SU the past 21 times it played with one or less day's rest. Arkansas State won both meetings last season and brought back all five starters from that team. The Red Wolves are the stronger, deeper team and will enjoy an advantage inside. Expect a victory. 

I'm playing on PENNSYLVANIA. Both teams have started Ivy League play with a victory. Playing at home, I expect the Quakers to be the team which moves to 2-0. While the Ivy League canceled last season, the Quakers are 9-4 SU (10-3 ATS) at home the past few seasons. During that span, the Big Red are just 4-17 on the road. The Quakers were favored by 11 points the last time that they hosted the Big Red. They won by 14. This year's team is arguably every bit as strong. Prior to the season, Penn coach Donahue noted: "We're more talented actually than we've ever been." While the Big Red are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they were off a conference win, the Quakers are 5-2 ATS when off a conference win. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday.

I'm playing on VERMONT. The Wildcats have been great at the betting window this season. They've got a solid team this year. However, tonight, they're up against the longtime class of the conference. Expect the Catamounts to remind them of that. New Hampshire was getting pretty excited a few years ago, too. The 2017 team won 20 games. Then, it ran into Vermont in the conf. tournament. Last year, Vermont finished tied for the conf. lead (5th straight year it was first) but lost to Hartford in the conf. tournament. This year's team brought back all five starters and enters America East play with a chip on its shoulder. Both teams have been out of action for quite a while. Vermont last played on 12/22. New Hampshire hasn't played since way back on 12/13 though. That's a long time to be out of action. Last season's first meeting was at NH. Laying -13, the Catamounts won by exactly 13. The game here at Vermont saw the Catamounts favored by 15. They won by 23. Including that result, the home team is 4-0-1 ATS the past five in the series. Expect the Catamounts to make a statement with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers got back on track last game. This should be a 'sweet spot' for them to make it two in a row. Portland is missing a couple of big guns. However, the Heat figure to be missing a lot more. Miami has fought hard, despite being short-handed, in recent games. Jimmy Butler has now been added to the (lengthy) list of missing players though, as he has an ankle injury. Playing the fourth leg of a West Coast road trip, Butler's absence figures to take a lot of fight out of the Heat. The Blazers had four different players score more than 20 points last game, five players scoring in double-figures.  They'll be too much for their short-handed guests to handle. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. The Panthers haven't fared too well as favorites this season. That changed last game though. Laying -11 points against Evansville, for their first game of 2022, the Panthers won by 22. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. This team is loaded, having brought back all five starters from last season. UNI has won four of the past five meetings with the Beacons, formerly known as the Crusaders. All four wins came by double-digits. While the Beacons managed 81 points last time out, they'll scoring far more difficult against the stingy Panthers. UNI is allowing an average of only 61.3 ppg at home. With Valparaiso just 5-11 ATS (4-12 SU) the past 16 times it scored 80 or more in its previous game, expect another double-digit win for the Panthers.

I'm playing on MARYLAND. This is a lot of points. Too many, in my opinion. Iowa is off three straight big wins. The last two of those were against weak opposition though. Prior to that, the Hawkeyes had dropped three straight. With the exception of Utah State, the Hawkeyes haven't beaten  a decent team by more than a single point. They beat Virginia by one. However, they lost against Purdue, Iowa St and Illinois. The rest of the schedule, besides that Utah State game, has been easy. So, the 10-3 record is a bit deceiving. Maryland started slowly but has won three straight of its own. That includes a victory over Florida. While the Terps have four losses, none of them came by more than eight points. Note that they're 2-0 ATS (and SU) the past two times that they were road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. The Terps haven't forgotten that that Iowa pounded them last year. The Hawkeyes arguably lost more from last year than Maryland did. Don't be surprised when the Terps return the favor. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are playing at home and they've got the much healthier team. Yet, they're still getting points. That shows how bad things have been in Sacramento lately. That said, the Kings did just earn a split with the Mavs and they're 2-1 their last three. This is an excellent spot for them to pick up a victory and I expect them to rise to the occasion. The Heat still have Butler, Lowry and Herro. They're missing nearly everyone else though. To their credit, they beat Houston last time out. Still, their previous game was cancelled, due to not even having enough players. They're still without the likes of Oladipo, Adebayo, Morris, Dedmon, Okpala etc. Its also worth mentioning that the Heat have a "big game" against the Warriors tomorrow night. (The Kings have tomorrow off.) The Heat are just 23-35-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit win. The Kings already had their turn dealing with Covid-issues. They won't show their short-handed guests any sympathy tonight. 

I'm playing on NKU. The Norse dominate this series. They've beaten the Panthers 10 straight times. The average margin of victory was 11 points. The Norse are 4-0 ATS in the last four of those meetings, too. Each victory came by a minimum of nine points. Despite both of last season's meetings being played at Milwaukee, the Norse still won both games by 14 points. The Norse, a rare healthy team, brought back four starters from that team, too. Milwaukee only returned two starters. The Panthers might have had a puncher's chance if Patrick Baldwin Jr. was available. However, he's out with Covid. Browning and Kane are also out for the Panthers, which hurts their depth. The Panthers gave up 80 points last time out. That's b2b games, against Div 1 opponents, that they've allowed 80 or more. Note that they're 4-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more in their previous game. I say the Norse ring in the new year with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on OKC. Off b2b road losses, the Thunder will be happy to return home. They've played three games here since 12/18 and they won all three of them. Wins came against the Pelicans, Nuggets and Clippers. Catching a NY team without Randle and others provides an excellent shot at another win. I've mentioned recently that the second unit of the Thunder has been playing very well lately. The Thunder are 11-5 ATS against losing team and 20-12 ATS when listed as underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH VALLEY STATE. These are two solid teams. Both played well in non-conference action. Both will be anxious to get WAC play started with a win. Playing at home, I expect the Wolverines to be the team which gets it done. This is the first conference game as a member of the WAC for the Wildcats. The last thing that the Wolverines want to do is to let a first-year team, led by a first-year coach, come in and beat them in their home (conference) opener. Remember, the Wolverines won at Washington last time out. Earlier, they beat BYU. One "big" advantage that the Wolverines have is Fardaws Aimaq. The 6-11, 240-pound center averages a double-double (19.4 points and 13.7 rebounds) and is one of the top big men in the country. He had a 15/15 line last game, 20/16 the game before that. The Wildcats would have been better equipped to deal with Aimaq last year, when they had 7-foot Kohl (and 6-foot-8 Pleasant) in their lineup. They don't though and will have no answer for the Utah Valley big man. Look for the Wolverines, 3-1 ATS their last four as home favorites of three or fewer points, to give the Wildats a rude welcome to WAC play. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers narrowly missed covering at Chicago, last time out. Now, they're back home and they've had a couple of days off between games. Having already lost both this season's meetings with the Hornets, they're going to be extremely hungry this evening. Note that both those games were at Charlotte and that Indiana lost by one point and three points. While the Hornets are off an impressive blowout against Houston, they're just 9-16 ATS the past 25 times that they were coming off a double-digit loss. The Pacers were slight favorites for the last meeting here at Indiana. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss against the Hornets, they won by 27. Expect them to get some payback again this evening. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish haven't been covering too regularly. That's helped keep this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While they didn't cover, the Irish still won by 10 last time out. That's b2b wins and three of four. That includes a victory over Kentucky. With Duke on deck, they absolutely need to take advantage of this winnable game. The Panthers lost last year's top player, Champagnie did a lot for them. Then, early this season, Horton (their top returning scorer) was arrested for aggravated assault. He's been suspended indefinitely Those were big losses. The Panthers didn't feel them so much in non-conf action but they will now that ACC play is here. The Irish won by 26 here last season. The combination of Champagnie and Horton had 27 of the Panthers' 58 points. To put that another way, the entire Pitt. lineup, minus those two players, scored only 31 points in last year's game. ND had 84. The Irish won't win by as many this year but they'll win by "enough." Look for them to improve to 18-9 ATS their past 27, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 120s.

I'm playing on UTAH. The Spurs have performed pretty well when playing the second of b2b games recently. However, those games haven't come against the revenge-minded Jazz. Even without Mitchell, the Jazz are loaded. They haven't forgotten that the Spurs upset them, at Utah. Note that the Jazz are 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The last time that the Jazz played here was almost exactly one year ago. Laying six points, they won by 21. The Spurs may have won three straight but they're just 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU!) the past 11 times that they were on a 3-game winning streak. The Jazz outscore teams by a 114.5 to 102.5 margin on the road, best in the NBA. Expect them to avenge the earlier loss, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Pacers are just 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) in divisional games. The lone ATS victory came against these same Bulls, last month. It was a 109-77 blowout. Considering that was their worst of the season, it's safe to say that the Bulls haven't forgotten. The Bulls have had some time off. In this case, its a good thing, as it has allowed them to get a number of players back. While last month's 109-77 blowout was here at Chicago, the Pacers are still 6-9 ATS (3-12 SU) on the road. The Bulls are still 9-5 ATS (10-4 SU) at home. Look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Bulls, as they improve to 5-3 ATS their last eight in the revenge role. 

I'm playing on UTAH. *This play was released on Dec. 15th. Since that time, with Doncic (and others) out, the line has climbed. I still like the Jazz at the current, much higher pointspread. Dallas is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. As of this writing, on Dec 15th, Doncic has missed a few games in a row for the Mavericks. It appears that he'll miss at least a few more. Whether or not, he's back for Christmas Day, remains to be seen. Either way, the Mavs are going to struggle. Utah has been outstanding but is still arguably flying under the radar. The Jazz sit on top of their division and (as of this writing) have outscored teams by an average of 11.1 points per game. That's right there with the Warriors (11.6) but no other team in the entire NBA is even close to that mark. Brooklyn is best in the East at only +3.5. As for the Mavs, they're at -0.1. They score 104.4 and allow 104.5. The Jazz lost their last visit to Dallas. However, they've beaten the Mavs by double-digits, each of the past two meetings here at Utah. Scores were 120-101 and 116-104. More of the same on Christmas ... Good luck and wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season!

I'm playing on UTAH. This is a mismatch, at the best of times. The Jazz already won this season's earlier meeting by 32 points. These aren't normal times though and this "situation" is far from ideal, for the visitors. The T-Wolves are off a double-digit loss and they'll be without Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley, Josh Okogie, Taurean Prince, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Playing without those important players, at one of the toughest venues in the league, in their final game before Christmas, is going to be tough. The Jazz won't take them lightly though. They haven't forgotten that the Wolves beat them in both meetings here last season. They also recently lost two in a row, before bouncing back to win last game. So, they don't want to let down at all, prior to Saturday's showdown with the Mavericks. Note that Utah is 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, 16-7 ATS (18-5 SU) it's last 23. The Jazz already outscore visiting teams by an average of 116.2 to 106.9. Again, this isn't a normal situation though. I see this one getting ugly. Jazz in a rout. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While the Cavs may not be what they were a few years ago, this line could still be higher. Virginia "got healthy" last time out and will carry the momentum into this evening's game. Laying 25 points, Virginia won by 33. The Cavs allowed a mere 49 points. They've now allowed 56 or fewer points in three straight games and seven of their past eight; the type of dominant defense we've come to expect from them. The Tigers don't fare too well when playing a road game which is expected to be low-scoring. They're 2-5 SU/ATS their last seven road games, when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cavs won by 35 the last time these teams met. They won by seven the last time the teams played here. They're 16-2 SU and 11-6-1 ATS the last 18 meetings here. Expect them to continue that dominance this evening. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Musketeers have gotten off to a great start. Tonight, however, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Keep in mind that Villanova has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Wildcats have taken on the likes of Purdue, UCLA and Baylor, three of the top five teams in the country. Other opponents have included Tennessee and Syracuse. Xavier has beaten some solid teams, like Ohio State, V-Tech and Oklahoma State. However, those teams aren't in the elite class of the ones that Villanova has been contending with. The Wildcats are already "battle-tested" against the best and that should serve them well tonight and going forward in Big East play. While the Wildcats may have lost b2b games, they're still one of the strongest and best coached teams in the country. Xavier coach Steele knows what's coming. He commented:  "... we know we're gonna get their best shot. They're coming off a loss against Creighton and a loss to Baylor before that. I know this, coach Jay Wright's gonna have them playing at a very, very high level on Tuesday night." Indeed. The Cats have dominated Xavier here and that will continue.

I'm playing on OKC. These teams faced each other on 12/2 and the Grizzlies absolutely embarrassed the Thunder. The final score was 152-79! That's the type of loss you don't forget and this is a great spot for OKC to get some revenge. That humbling blowout got the Thunder going, as they've been better ever since. They're off b2b wins and are 4-2 ATS their last six games. Last time out, they held the Clippers to just 103 points. Note that they're 12-8 ATS their last 20 in the 'revenge' role and 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they held their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points. That win over the Clippers came on Saturday and the Thunder had yesterday off. They had two days off before the Clipper game, too. That's not the case for the Grizzlies. They're off a hard-fought loss against Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Grizzlies will also be playing their third game in the past four days. Schedule in their favor, look for the revenge-minded Thunder to give their hosts all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. These teams last met two years ago. The Bulldogs were favored by 16 points. They won by 21. While the Bulldogs are laying a smaller number this evening, I'm expecting another blowout. Off a loss to George Mason, the Bulldogs are going to be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on someone. That was their first game without Jailyn Ingram and the Bulldogs missed him. However, as coach Crean noted: "Now we have a game under our belt without him. There's no question that it was different. But that's what we have now. Guys have to understand that this is our team." Crean went on to comment: "The problem for us, at times, was that we didn't follow the game plan defensively. And that just can't happen. We've got to be more physical. We've got to be more tuned into what we do, awareness-wise." I expect the Bulldogs to listen to their coach and for them to be far more physical and intense on defense. As of this writing, the O/U line is 145.5. That projected pace figures to favor the Bulldogs. They're 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11 home games, when the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. During that span, the Catamounts were 4-6 ATS (1-9 SU) in 10 road games with an O/U line in that range. Going back further finds them at a dismal 13-34-1 ATS (5-43 SU) in 48 road games with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Catamounts haven't played for awhile and may have some early rust. Look for the Bulldogs to jump all over them and keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. This line could easily be higher. Not only are the Warriors playing the second of b2b games, but they're reportedly only sending nine players to this game. That list of nine players doesn't include Curry, Wiggins, Green, Poole, Porter or Iguodala. While I'm sure that the remaining players will fight hard, they're going to be outmatched. The well-coached Raptors will know better than to take their short-handed guests lightly. The Raptors are playing well right now, as they're 5-1 ATS in December. Last time on this floor, they won by 23 points. Look for them to take advantage of this favorable situation, ultimately pulling away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Admittedly, Colorado has been a little inconsistent. That said, if the Buffaloes play up to their potential, this is a mismatch. I believe that they will. With Kansas on deck, followed by Pac 12 play, the Buffaloes need to put it all together. CSU Bakersfield is the perfect opponent to do that against. The Roadrunners are off a double-digit loss against Abilene Christian. They're averaging only 56.7 ppg on the road (39.4% field goals) and are going to have trouble scoring here. Note that they're 4-9 SU/ATS their last 13, when playing a road game with an O/U kine in the 120s. Meanwhile, during that span, the Buffaloes are 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU) when listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -18 range. Colorado coach Tad Boyle had this to say: "I would sure like to put 40 minutes together, and we haven't even come close this year. We haven't even scratched the surface ... " Expect the Buffs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a blowout victory. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are desperate to snap their skid. I expect their very best effort. I also believe that Charlotte is the perfect opponent for them to snap their skid against, as they've long dominated the Hornets here. The Hornets beat Portland in this season's earlier meeting. However, that was at Charlotte. The Hornets aren't as good on the road. Recent losses notwithstanding, the Blazers are stronger at home. That first meeting also saw Ball lead the Hornets with 27 points. He's missed games recently though and is currently questionable for this one though. Even if he does return, his conditioning may not be at 100%. Either way, the Blazers are going to be bringing it. They also lost at Charlotte last season. However, in the game here at Portland, they beat the Hornets by double-digits. Including that result, they're 13-4 ATS and 15-2 SU the past 17 meetings here. Enough's enough. Blazers bounce back. 

I'm playing on TARLETON STATE. These teams just met, at South Alabama. The game was close. The Texans had a lead at halftime. However, playing at home, the Jags won the second half, picking up the victory while covering by half a point. With this evening's rematch being played at Tarleton, I expect the revenge-minded Texans to get some payback. The Texans have taken on the best teams in the country. Literally. Their opponents have included Gonzaga, Kansas and Michigan as well as "lesser" teams like Stanford and Wichita State. The Jags also faced the Shockers (both teams lost by 14) but didn't go up against any of the others that I mentioned. Anyway, I expect that extremely difficult schedule to start serving the Texans well. They're 3-1 SU at home and the lone loss came by two points, as a 16.5 point underdog. They know they can compete with this team and I expect the Texans to score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. The Zips are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Raiders have been the best team in the Horizon the past few years. When all is said and done, the Raiders will be at or near the top, again. The Raiders are well-rested, having last played on 12/4. The last (and only) time that they played with seven or more day's rest this season, they won by 13, as a four-point favorite. The Zips are no slouches. They'll have a tough defense and should have a solid season. However, it's going to be difficult for them to keep up with Wright State in this one. The Raiders, who scored 86 points in their lone home game, are going to want to get out and run. Akron is averaging 55.7 ppg on the road. Playing at home will help Wright State dictate a faster tempo than Akron wants to play at. Behind a big game from Grant Basile, look for the Raiders to come through with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Braves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Alcorn State has played an absolutely grueling road schedule thus far. To their credit, the Braves have been relatively competitive. Still, it's starting to catch up with them. They've had some close losses but they've also had four double-digit losses. A 22-point loss at Houston in their last game was excusable, as the Cougars are tough. However, in their previous game, the Braves lost by 21 at Tulane. The Shockers are a lot stronger than the Green Wave. Like their guests, the Shockers have played some tough opponents. They've also had a few close losses. However, they also have wins over the likes of UNLV, Missouri and OK. State. They beat Norfolk State by "only" 13 last time out, narrowly missing the cover. The Spartans won their league title and went to the NCAA Tournament last year though; they're stronger than Alcorn State. The Braves' blowout loss at Tulane came after they'd had a break in between games. That's the case again here. It's going to be hard for them to go back on the road and "get up" for another blowout loss. I say the Shockers keep their foot on the gas the whole way and run their road-weary guests right out of the building. 

I'm playing on LA. The Clippers have had this game circled. Recall that the Suns eliminated them from the Western Conference Finals last year. This is the first meeting since. While neither team will be at full strength, Booker's absence figures to have the biggest impact. He went down Nov. 30th; the Suns are 1-3 ATS in December. Booker averaged 25.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists in last year's six playoffs games vs. LA. The Suns may have closed out the series here. However, the Clippers are still 10-3 ATS the last 13 meetings here. Off three straight wins, the Clippers have been rounding into form. They have tomorrow off (Suns play at Portland) and they'll be bringing it tonight. Payback. 

I'm playing on NDSU. I played on the Bison in their last game. I noted the following: "The Matadors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams faced each other in 2019, at Northridge. The Bison won by nine. Playing on their homecourt, angry off a loss, I expect a bigger margin of victory tonight. This is a veteran NDSU team; some of the players are still starting that were in the 2019 win. Guys like Eady and Kreuser, a first-team All Summit choice last year. In fact, the Bison returned all five starters from last year's team. They won 114-51 last time on this floor. They're catching CSUN, which has a first year coach, off losses of 18 and 26 points. While NDSU should finish near the top of the Summit conference, CSUN should finish near the bottom of the Big West. Expect a double-digit victory." While Indiana State represents a tougher challenge, I like what I saw from the Bison and I expect them to build momentum from their victory. The Sycamores have a first year coach. Last month, they saw Tyreke Key go down to injury. He was their leading scorer from the previous year and had been considering turning pro. Note that Key led all scorers with 27 points when these teams met in 2019. His injury was devastating to this team and his absence will be noticed in this one. The Sycamores are 10-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. The Bison are 24-4 SU at home, 7-5 ATS as home favorites of three or less. They'll improve on those stats. 

I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY. The Stags have gotten off to a strong start. The Tribe has not. However, those results have provided us with an extra generous line for this afternoon's game. Consider that Fairfield was only a 1-point favorite, despite playing at home, the last time (2019) that these teams met. That was a close game, W&M eventually winning by four. With the Tribe off a 1-point game, I'm expecting another close one this afternoon. The Stags, 12-19 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, are just 6-9 ATS their last 15 as favorites. Note that all five of their road games have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Look for the Tribe to bring their best effort, taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Flyers were severely short-handed when they faced the Warriors earlier this season. They also were on the road. Yet, despite being on the road and playing without the likes of Harris, Simmons or Emibiid, the 76ers took a 61-52 lead into halftime. While they couldn't keep it up in the second half, things are different this time. This time, the 76ers are at home, where the crowd can keep them engergized the whole way. Simmons remains out but Harris and Embiid are back. Needless to say, that's a huge difference. Not only does Embiid dominate but he gets the other team in foul trouble.  Kerr sais this of Embiid: Playing against Joel is like going into a time machine,” said Warriors coach Steve Kerr. "It's like playing against Patrick Ewing or Shaq or Hakeem Olajuwon, it's a low post-game. He will step out and shoot 3s and run some DHOs and he's good with that, but he's one of the few guys in the league now who can dominate a game from the low block and they've done a great job with their roster. Putting a lot of shooting around him ...  Doc Rivers does a great job just making you guard everyone, putting you in tough spots where you have to make decisions, and leave some people open potentially. So a very difficult cover and we definitely have our hands full." The Warriors won here last season (No Harris or Simmons for Philly) but they're long had trouble here. They're just 3-11 ATS their last 14 visits here. While the talk will be about Curry chasing the record, Embiid and the 76'ers will take this one. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Musketeers have been playing well. After missing out for a few years, they should get back to the NCAA Tournament this season. I expect them to have their hands full with their crosstown rivals though. The Bearcats have lost two games. However, both losses came by six or less. They've since responded to those losses with a close win and then a bigger win. They're coming in confident and excited to play in this game. The Bearcats are off a down year and they lost by eight to Xavier. They're much stronger this season though and their new coach has them buying into what needs to be done, particularly on the defensive end. The Bearcats allow just 58.1 ppg. They hold opposing teams to a 35.3% field goal percentage. That's the fifth best in the entire country. The Musketeers are just 14-27-1 ATS their last 42, when laying points. The last two meetings were both decided by eight or less and Cincy won by 15, the year before that. Look for this one to come down to the wire, the Bearcats with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. The Hawks should fare well in their conference. They're not going to be ready for the Red Storm though. The Storm switched up their lineup before last game and it resulted in a 14-point win over Fordham. To its credit, Monmouth has played well. However, the Hawks are starting to grow a little road weary and this is a strong St. John's team. Note that Monmouth is just 3-7 ATS its past 10, after playing its previous three games on the road. The Storm only has two losses. They came against Indiana (2-point loss) and Kansas. Neither game was when they were listed as the home team. Five of six wins came by nine or more. The Storm are averaging 85.2 ppg (2nd best in Big East) and connecting on better than 50% of their field goals. The Storm have scored 74 or more in every game. Ultimately, Monmouth, which is averaging less than 66 points over its past three games, won't be able to keep up. These teams haven't met since a 10-point win by the Storm eight years ago. Sticking with the same lineup that came through last game, expect another double-digit victory for St. John's. 

I'm playing on LA. This one sets up nicely for the Lakers. LA, which should have all of its big guns available, had yesterday off. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are off a hard-fought and emotional loss against the Mavericks. It was physical and close the entire way. I call it "emotional" as there were numerous technicals called and Dillon Brooks got ejected. The Grizzlies weren't happy with the officiating and complained afterwards. While all that was going on, the Lakers were waiting for them. Last night's loss snapped the Grizzlies' season high 5-game winning streak and brought an end to their positive momentum. Remember, this team is still without Morant, its best player. Note that the Grizzlies lost by double-digits the last time that they played the second of b2b games. The Lakers beat Boston by 15 points last game. In their last road game, they beat Sacramento by 25. Their previous road game resulted in an 8-point win at Indiana. They're 27-15 ATS (31-11 SU) their last 42 road games, when the O/U line was 220 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on SE. MISSOURI STATE. These teams played a very close one, at Evansville, last season. Playing on their home floor, the Purple Aces ended up eking out an OT victory. (They won it by converting a 3-point play with 1-second remaining in OT.) With tonight's rematch being played on their home floor, I expect the Redhawks to return the favor. Note that the Purple Aces are an ugly 2-10 ATS their last 12, as road favorites. The Redhawks have many of the key players from last year's game. Eric Reed Jr. led the Redhawks with 16 point in last year's game. He's back and coming off a 33-point effort last time out. Last year's result should give the Redhawks confidence, as well as some added motivation for this one. Evansville is just 5-22 SU it last 27 road games. Expect the Redhawks to score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Dolphins are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Admittedly, the Bulldog had been struggling. However, they bounced back to beat Memphis in their last game. They were down at the break and rallied for the victory. That was what they needed and I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win in this one. Note that Georgia beat this team by 33 points last December. This will be the Dolphins fourth time on the road in their last five games. They average a mere 55 points on the road. It doesn't help matters that guard Kevion Nolan has a banged-up knee. He's the team's best outside shooter and his status is day-to-day. However, regardless if he plays, it won't be enough. They may not win by 33 again but in the end, it'll be another double-digit win for the Bulldogs. 

I'm playing on COLGATE. This is a mismatch. The Raiders have quietly dominated the Patriot League over the past four years. They were 50-16 in league play, the past four seasons, 11-1 last year. They were second in the entire country last year, in terms of scoring. This year's team brought back four starters. On paper, it's arguably even stronger than last year. They've got talent, depth and experience. Poor Columbia. The last time that the Lions played on the road they lost by a score of 98-60. That was against an opponent (UMBC) which isn't as good as the one they'l face this evening. The score was 49-19 by halftime. While the Lions did bounce back from that beating. Their win came against the Maine Brown Bears. Also, note that they're just 2-9-1 ATS their last 12, after having covered the spread in their previous game. Overall, the Lions are 0-4 on the road. With Colgate 7-2 ATS its last nine home games, against teams which have won less than 40% of their road games, expect this one to result in a blowout. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. It's been a tough start to the season for the Bengals. However, a visit from the Lumberjacks will be just what the doctor ordered. The Bengals' sub-par early resuls have helped keep this line lower than it otherwise could have been. Idaho State beat this team in both last season's games. Both games were at Northern Arizona, too. The Bengals brought all their starters back from last year and they match up well with this team. The Bengals are 13-9 ATS their last 22, when off a conference loss. Knowing that their next game will be diffcult (road game at Cal) expect the Bengals to dig deep and play their best game of the season. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have gotten off to a tough start at the betting window. However, their games have been largely on the road. They're home now and this is the start of conference play, essentially a new season. The Bengals' non-conference ATS struggles have worked in our favor here, as the line is lower than it easily could have been. This is a very experienced Idaho State team, one which has been anxiously awaiting the start of Big Sky play. The Vikings are winless on the road, where they're averaging 57.5 ppg and hitting a mere 34.4% of their field goals. Granted, those two road games have come against tough opposition. Still, the Vikings have yet to show that they can shoot away from home. They're 8-19 SU on the road, the past 2+ seasons. Speaking of homecourt, the Vikings had the advantage of playing at home for both of last season's games against the Bengals. The teams split those games. Playing at home will help allow the Bengals the opportunity to dicate the tempo of the game. The Bengals believe that they can make some noise in the conference this season. Expect them to get things started with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Hokies, they've lost two in a row and I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Of course, one could say that most of the time, when they face good teams on the road. They're 1-10 ATS their last 11 road games, when facing a team with a winning home record. With a 4-1 home record, the Terps certainly qualify. They're 31-8 here the past few seasons. Note that the Terps are 4-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. During that span, the Hokies were 0-2 ATS as road underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 9-16 ATS their last 25 in that situation. These teams haven't met for several years. However, the Terps dominated the most recent meetings, going 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Look for the 1-point loss against Xavier to take a toll on the Hokies and for homecourt to prove the difference for the Terrapins.

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Warriors have been on a remarkable run at the betting window. I say it comes to an end this evening. The Suns have been every bit as hot as the Warriors, arguably hotter. Golden State is 7-0 its last seven and 18-2 on the season. Phoenix is 17-3. However, since the Suns started 1-3, they've now won 16 straight. Indeed, this is a true clash of titans. Both teams have been excellent, at both ends of the floor. However, if one looks closely, the Suns' home numbers are slightly better than the Warriors' road numbers. Not only do they score more points at home than the Warriors do on the road, but the Suns hit a higher percentage of their field goals (48.4% to 46%) while holding visiting teams to 43%. When on the road, the Warriors allow a 43.6% field goal percentage. The Suns lost their last road game against the Warriors but won big the last two meetings here at Phoenix. Scores were 120-98 and 114-93. Obviously, the Suns haven't needed Thompson. However, they've got some other players banged-up right now, too. I say homecourt proves the difference and the Suns keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on TCU. If looking at the Horned Frogs' 1-4 ATS record, it might be easy to think that they haven't been playing well. That's not the case though. The Frogs have won four of their five games and they've just narrowly missed out on the cover in three of their wins. Laying 22, they won by 16. Laying 13.5, they won by 13. Laying 11, they won by nine. In other words, they were a bucket or two away from covering. They didn't play well against Santa Clara, in their lone loss. However, I like how they responded in their win over Pepperdine. Back home and with a number of much tougher games coming up, I expect the Frogs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, in order to build up their confidence and momentum. They're catching Austin Peay at the right time. The Governors are at the end of a long 5-game road trip. It started way back on 11/12, with a 73-55 blowout loss at SUI. Now, more than two weeks later, they're finally at the end of the trip. I expect them to be a bit "road weary" and don't believe they'll have necessary energy to compete with the Frogs on their home floor. While the Frogs are 6-4 ATS their last 10, after failing to cover their previous three, the Governors are 1-3 ATS their last four road games, with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on DENVER. Jokic has missed the past few games and is currently questionable for this one. As he was close to being ready for the last game, I'm hopeful that he'll be good to go tonight. However, even if he doesn't, I expect the Nuggets to bring their A game. A date with the defending champs is always a big deal. In this case, the Nuggets are also desperate to snap their losing streak. That's even more important, given the fact thay hit the road for a long trip, after this game. While I successfully backed the Bucks in their last game, that was at home against a tired Pistons team. Now, at a very difficult venue, they'll take on a rested Denver team. The Nuggets are 19-9 SU the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in six games against teams from the West. They're just 27-44 ATS against Western Conf. teams the past couple of seasons. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ORAL ROBERTS. Naturally, I respect OSU. While they lost Cunningham from last year's team, the Cowboys are still really strong. That said, this is a tough spot and I expect them to have their hands full. Its the day after Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are on the road. After a little break, they have a big game against Wichita State on deck. Those teams played a 3-point game last year. Speaking of close games, Oral Roberts always comes to play against these Cowboys. These teams met at OSU last year and the Cowboys won by only five. In fact, the same was true the previous season. OSU was laying double-digits in both games but the scores were 83-78 and 80-75. Abmas scored in double-digits in both games including a 33-point game last year. He's back and leading the Golden Eagles again. Oral Roberts is 6-1 ATS its last seven as an underdog and 17-6 ATS against winning teams, the past few seasons. Grab the points and expect another close one.  

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pistons deserve some credit. They've really been fighting hard lately. However, hard fought losses can take a toll. Mentally and physically. Last night, in what is becoming a familiar routine, the Pistons were up on Miami. Though they hung on to cover, they blew the game. That's b2b very close losses. Both were games against good teams, which they could have won. Again, those type of defeats can be demoralizing. Now, off those "heartbreakers," they play their second game in two days and third in the past four. In fact, this is their eighth game since 11/12. That's a brutal schedule and the tough losses make it worse. The last six of those games were at home but that 8-game stretch started with a 20-point road losses. The Bucks had yesterday off. Prior to that, they'd had b2b "easy" games against the Magic. Last time out, they won by 31. They should be the far fresher team tonight. They already beat the Pistons by 28 in this season's earlier meeting. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on SMU. When these teams met last season, the Mustangs were favored by 17. They won by 30. This should prove to be another mismatch. The Mustangs haven't fared too well at the betting window, thus far. However, they've been close. In their first game, they won by 24, as a 28-point favorite. Next, they lost on the road at Oregon. No shame in that. They bounced back from that loss with a 47-point win, as a 20.5 point favorite. Then, they won by 17, laying 20. That was followed by an OT loss against Missouri. Off that tough loss, they stumbled again the next day. Now, off b2b losses, they're absolutely going to be in an angry mood. While the Mustangs have scored 70 or more in each of their last four games, the Bearkats have failed to hit the 60 mark in two of their last three. Last game, they managed a mere 55 points against Boston. They're 1-5 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to score 60 points. Expect the Mustangs to bounce back with a statement blowout. 

I'm playing on TCU. The Broncos are undefeated to start the season. I expect that to change Monday. Like Santa Clara, the Horned Frogs are undefeated. While the competition has been relatively weak, the Frogs have still taken care of business. Every win has come by double-digits. TCU is holding opposing teams to a field goal percentage of 33.5. That ranks among the best marks in the entire country. Entering the season, Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek was quoted as saying: "We're very much a work in progress with this group coming together." Facing the best defense that they've seen, I believe that we'll finally see some "growing pains" from Sendek's group tonight. 

I'm playing on UNLV. Naturally, I respect the Shockers. In fact, I've already played on them this season. However, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying points. For starters, though technically a "neutral court affair," this game will be played in Vegas. Also, the Rebels are stronger than some might realize. They're only loss was last game against a very strong Michigan team. Additionally, the Shockers are off a tough OT loss against Arizona. Those type of defeats can be tough to bounce back from. Note that the Shockers are 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) the last four times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. The Rebels, who have already been involved in three very close games, are 7-0-1 ATS the past eight times that they were a "neutral court" underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points.

I'm playing on LA. With or without Doncic, I like the Clippers in this one. If the Mavs do get their star back, he may be at less than 100%. He's pretty banged up. The return of a superstar can often also cause the rest of the team to experience a minor letdown. Off b2b losses, there won't be any letdown from the Clippers. The last time that the Clippers had lost two in a row was in late October. They immediately snapped the skid with a 5-point win. The Clippers also lost two in a row to start the season. Again, they stopped the bleeding right there, delivering a 30-point rout of the Suns. In those two "slump-busting" wins, the Clippers allowed just 86 and 94 points. Note that both LA losses came on the road. Last time here, the Clippers won by 14. Last time these teams met, the Clippers won by 15. Expect the Clippers to elevate their defensive intensity and bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. This is an absolute mismatch. The Spartans left it all on the floor last game. They came up a point short though, losing 67-66 at Cal Baptist. Now, off that tough loss and playing their third straight on the road, they take a big step up in class, as they face one of the top teams in the country. Note that SJSU is just 11-21 ATS (4-28 SU) its last 32, when facing a team with a winning record. The Longhorns bounced back from their loss to Gonzaga with a double-digit win. They allowed just 49 points. The Spartans, who have managed 66 and 62 their last two games, figure to have trouble scoring. Not Texas. The Longhorns scored more than 90 in their opener and they'll be looking to put up a crooked number in this one. Note that Texas is 9-5 ATS its last 14, as a home favorite in the -24.5 to -30 range. Indeed, this should be one of the bigger blowouts on the board. I see Texas keeping the pedal to the medal the entire way and winning by more than 30. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. Hofstra has been a force in the CAA for years. However, this is a tough spot. With Speedy Claxton taking over as head coach, the Pride switched their defense from zone to man-to-man. That may ultimately prove dividends. However, it's still a work in progress. They allowed 82 points last game and are allowing an average of 76. This Hofstra team has a lot of new faces and will take some time for everyone to learn to work together. Here, the Pride are playing their fourth straight road game. Off an 8-point loss at Iona, they're now taking a big step up in class. Indeed, this is a strong Maryland team. Off an upset loss, the Terps are going to be angry, too. Maryland coach Turgeon noted: "We have to be great on defense until we learn how to move the ball a little bit better...." Expect the Terps to elevate their defensive intensity, playing their best game and taking out their frustration on their outmatched road-weary guests. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. While I respect the Panthers, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Razorbacks have failed to cover in either of their first two games. Those results have helped keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. I feel that they're ready to put it all together en route to their first victory at the betting window. Arkansas won't be caught off guard: Coach Musselman noted this of Northern Iowa: "They're an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. They were banged up injury-wise their first two games. They'e now back healthy. … We better bring our A-game ... " I expect his team to listen and for them to be ready. While Musselman may be right that the Panthers will end up pretty good, they're not there yet and they won't be ready for what they encounter here. Yes, they are getting their players back from injury, as Musselman noted. However, this is no place to try and "work out the kinks." Note that the Panthers are 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 as underdogs. While they may not have been covering, the Razorbacks have still been playing well and winning comfortably. With K-State on deck, they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one.