I’m playing on the Cleveland Cavaliers as my 10* Personal Favorite.

Cleveland, despite the gap in seeding between the No. 2 and No. 7 teams in the East, won’t be taking the Boston Celtics lightly in Game 1 of this opening round playoff series Sunday. The Celtics have beat the Cavs twice in the past week and one of those wins came with Cleveland playing all of its starters, losing 99-90 in Boston as a 6-point road favorite on April 10.

While the big spread is a tempting proposition for underdog bettors, double-digit favorites haven’t fared well in the postseason and we expect Cleveland to set the tone for the series with an explosive Game 1 performance. The Cavaliers have had their eyes on the postseason since LeBron James returned home in the summer, and that run all starts Sunday.

Boston can’t afford to let this series turn into a shootout. The Celtics have an offensive spark in guard Isaiah Thomas, but can he guard Cleveland’s bigger backcourt of Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert – and even James if he steps in at two-guard? Fellow guard Avery Bradley isn’t 100 percent coming into the postseason, nursing an ankle injury, and towing the scoring and defense load is just too much for this pair.

The Cavaliers not taking Boston lightly and their big and talented guards are why I’m playing on Cleveland as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets finished with their third-best record in franchise history and they consistently proved to be a matchup problem for the Mavs this year.

The Rockets went 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the four meetings this season and Houston often used a lightning transition game to get the jump on the Mavericks. Dallas gave up 15.9 points on average in transition on the season but against Houston that number jumped to a sloppy 23.3 points.

The Rockets are also a much better defensive team than the Mavericks and they held Dirk Nowitzki to a disappointing 42 percent shooting in the four meetups and I'll think that's a great sign that points toward another Houston cover here. 

Center Dwight Howard finally appears healthy for Houston and I think that will be another big advantage for the Rockets – particularly when it comes to keeping Mavericks center Tyson Chandler in check, who has averaged almost 15 points over his last five games. Howard is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game and has at least two blocks in his last three games and I expect him to be a big presence in the paint.

Then there’s James Harden, of course, who finished second in NBA scoring this year. He’s going to be the best player on the court pretty much no matter who Houston plays and I expect him to own a big role in leading the Rockets to the money in Game 1. 

Houston enters this contest on a three-game winning streak and the Rockets were also an incredible 26-15 against the spread on home court this season. They've also covered four of the last five meetings against Dallas and everywhere you look, this game is pointing to a Houston win and cover. 10* Saturday Main Event

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS. It's "win and they're in" for the Pelicans tonight, who will be guaranteed a playoff spot if they can beat San Antonio. So we know we will see the Pelicans leave everything on the floor and I love the fact that they are also getting points on home court. 
San Antonio enters on an 11-game winning streak but the Spurs have also failed to cover in two straight games after being forced to give away too many points by oddsmakers. The Pelicans have won seven of their last 10 games, but all three of those losses came on the road. The Pelicans have won and covered their last four games on home court, which includes a win over Golden State where the Warriors were laying a very similar number to the one we're seeing tonight. 
Unlike most of the rest of the NBA, the Spurs have actually been a great matchup for New Orleans this year. The Pelicans have covered the spread in all three meetings and won two of them straight up. The Spurs needed overtime to win the one meeting they did capture but failed to cover as 4.5 point favorites. 
You have to also like that Anthony Davis is a matchup problem for just about any titeam right now and is coming off racking up 24 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and six blocks against Minnesota. It should also help that guard Jrue Holiday is expected back in the lineup after missing Monday's game and the Pelicans will need his 14.9 points and 6.9 assists per game. 
The Pelicans are 13-6 against the spread at home against winning teams this season while the Spurs are 7-13 against the number against winning teams on the road. So tonight's matchup shapes up as a great spot all around and I really like the Pelicans to at least cover if not win straight up. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite.

Indiana is still battling for the playoffs, sitting behind the Brooklyn Nets for the eighth and final postseason ticket in the Eastern Conference. That motivation has pushed the Pacers to five straight victories heading into Tuesday’s action, going 4-1 ATS in that span.

Indiana could get some help from the Wizards, who are locked into the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference and could choose to limit their stars in the final two games of the season. Washington found out Monday night, following Chicago’s win over Brooklyn, that they would finish fifth in the conference, which rendered Tuesday’s tangle with the Pacers meaningless to the Wizards.

The Pacers' offense has been the motor for this team’s late surge, averaging almost 104 points per game in their last 10 outings – a major improvement from their season scoring rate of 97.5 points per game. The return of Paul George has also given Indiana some scoring depth off the bench, with George averaging 10.3 points in his first four games back from a broken leg.

The Pacers’ postseason push and the Wizards not having any stake in this game are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite Monday.

The Kings host the Los Angeles Lakers after three straight road games. Sacramento is coming off a 122-111 loss to the Denver Nuggets Sunday but despite having shut down its superstars, the Kings continue to produce offensively. Sacramento should be able to overtake an offensively challenged Lakers side that has just two wins in its last 10 games, going 3-6-1 ATS in that span.

Los Angeles is putting a lineup on the floor full of unknowns and is down one of their only name-brand players in Wesley Johnson, who sprained his ankle in the loss to Dallas. Johnson was one of the few offensive threats L.A. had left. The Lakers’ bench ran only three players deep in their last games, so expect an even shorter rotation for this game.

The Kings don’t have DeMarcus Cousins or Rudy Gay but are getting great production from their young role players as well as solid contributions off the bench. This is only Sacramento’s fourth home game in the past 11 outings and the home finale. We expect a spirited effort as the Kings youngsters try to up their stock for next season and give the home fans one last win to cheer for.

The Kings getting good production from their role players and the Lakers’ limited bodies are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Denver isn’t going down without a fight, showing tremendous value in its last two games. The Nuggets stunned the Los Angeles Clippers 119-101 as 9.5-point underdogs then lost 144-143 to the Dallas Mavericks as 1.5-point favorites in their most recent contest.

Denver takes on a shell of the Sacramento Kings Sunday, with Sacramento entering full tank mode. The organization announced it was shutting down top players DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay for the remainder of the season, stripping Sacramento of most of its scoring punch. The Kings were only putting up 97.7 points per game over their last eight outings, so we could see a sharp decline in their output Sunday with these stars on the sideline.

The Nuggets can put up points in a hurry and will look to overwhelm this undermanned Kings teams with offense. Denver has averaged more than 110 points over its last five meetings with Sacramento, including a 118-108 victory over the Kings on January 9.

On top of that, a trip to Denver at this time in the season, especially with a short bench, is tough on any team. The thin air in Colorado can quickly drain the visitors’ reserves. Sacramento is just 8-19-1 ATS in its last 28 road games heading into Sunday.

The Nuggets fighting to the finish and the Kings packing it in on the road are why I’m playing on Denver as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Milwaukee Bucks as my 10* Early Best Bet Sunday.

The Bucks are clutching to the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference standings as the season winds down this week. Milwaukee is fighting off the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets, who they happen to play Sunday afternoon. The Bucks are just two games up on the Nets hosting Brooklyn in a huge matinee matchup.

Milwaukee stopped the bleeding from a two-game hiccup with a 99-91 road win over the New York Knicks last time out and have three wins in its last five contests – going 3-2 ATS. The Bucks continue to be one of the stingiest teams on defense and face a Brooklyn offense that is picking up steam as the postseason draws closer.

The Nets have won eight of their last 10 games thanks in large part to a surge in scoring, getting tremendous efforts from their standout players. Brooklyn has also benefited from a home-friendly slate, with all but three of those 10 contests coming inside the Barclays Center.

In those seven home stands, the Nets are averaging 110.3 points per game. In the three road games, they’re putting up just 96.6 points an outing. We expect a desperate Bucks team to turn up the intensity and give Brooklyn even more road woes Sunday afternoon. The Nets are just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings with Milwaukee, including covering in only three of their last 10 trips to the Bradley Center.

The Bucks desperate to hang on to the No. 6 spot and the Nets’ scoring dropoff on the road are why I’m playing on Milwaukee as my 10* Early Best Bet.

I am playing on MINNESOTA. In a game that is absolutely meaningless for both the Timberwolves and the Warriors, oddsmakers have simply gotten a little carried away with this point spread and are making Golden State lay way too many. 
This is the biggest spread of the season for either team and any time we see a number like that, you have to look hard at the underdog. The second biggest number of the season for these teams came when they met Dec. 27 when the Warriors laid 18.5. Minnesota covered the number in a 13-point loss and I believe tonight's spread is too generous also. 
The Warriors are still playing their starters but I think we'll see the bench see more time if Golden State jumps out to a big lead, clearing the path for a backdoor cover with a juicy number like this. 
Minnesota has a pile of injuries lately but Andrew Wiggins has stepped up with more weight falling on his shoulders. He's averaging 26.2 points over his last five games. Wiggins is coming off maybe his best game of the year against the Lakers last night where he poured in 29 points to go along with 10 rebounds and six assists. 
I think Wiggins and the Wolves will find a way to cover this heavy number Saturday night against a Golden State team that is just 6-7 against the spread this season when it has to give away 14 points or more. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on HOUSTON. Keeping Houston down isn't an easy thing to do, as I believe the Spurs will find out tonight after beating the Rockets 110-98 last night. 
The Rockets are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss. I think we'll see a much better game from James Harden tonight, who had an unusually cold shooting game last night when he went just 6-of-15 from the field. Harden seems to play his best when he's playing with a chip on his shoulder and I think the Rockets want to put out a better performance than what they showed last night. 
"Obviously it's going to be a great test for us because (the Rockets are) going to be a little bit mad and they're going to play with a lot of energy and we're gonna have to match that," said Spurs guard Tony Parker. 
I like that the Rockets are getting points at home and they are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings with the Spurs. They were on a 3-game winning streak heading into last night during which they averaged 112.3 points and I think they came into last night's game a little mentally unprepared.

I don't expect them to make the same mistake tonight. The Rockets are 12-8 against the spread against winning teams at home this season while the Spurs are 7-12 ATS against winning teams on the road. 10* Main Event

I am playing on MEMPHIS. This game has the feeling of a classic letdown spot for New Orleans, who is coming off a big upset win last night over the best team in the NBA, Golden State. 
The Pelicans had a big second half to pull off the win over Golden State, which was their fifth win in six games. Now they must turn around on no rest and play Memphis, which is battling for the No. 2 spot in the West, just one game behind the Houston Rockets. 
As if Memphis wouldn't be tough enough, I expect the Grizzlies to be playing a little angry tonight after losing 92-83 at home to Washington on Saturday and I'm surprised this line wasn't set higher. 
Memphis wasn't happy with its play in that game and has been working in practice to correct things ever since. Head coach Dave Joerger told reporters this week that the Grizzlies are approaching the game against New Orleans as a "mini playoff prep" and I expect them to be very tough and well rested.
I also like that the home team has won and covered all three meetings in this series this season and I think Memphis will complete that trend tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Sacramento is showing solid value against the spread as the season dwindles down, covering in three of its last four contests including back-to-back paydays in games against the Rockets and Pelicans. We like the Kings again in this spot, taking on a Utah Jazz team coming off a game Saturday.

The Jazz lost a two-point squeaker to the Phoenix Sun Saturday, snapping a three-game winning streak for Utah. The Jazz played an extremely sloppy game with 18 turnovers and now take the court on short rest in a tough letdown spot. Utah has struggled to control the ball all season, averaging 15.2 turnovers per game on the year.

Those mistakes will turn into easy baskets for the Kings, who are looking to get out a run with head coach George Karl on the sidelines. Sacramento has finally rounded into form under their new coach and has seen an uptick in offense over the past month. DeMarcus Cousins has led that charge with back-to-back triple doubles in the last two games.

Sacramento has been a solid winner versus Utah, covering the spread in 15 of their last 21 meetings and going 5-2 ATS in their last seven home stands versus the Jazz.

The Jazz in a letdown spot on the second of back-to-backs and the Kings' value against the spread are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. I successfully offered a play on the Suns when they played Thursday night and they covered the spread by 11.5 points in a last-second loss to the best team in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors.    
I am taking them again here with what is a very small spread and I believe they'll get the win on home court. T.J. Warren is a big reason why and he is a bit of a secret weapon for the Suns right now. Warren is seeing more minutes lately and has scored 17, 13 and 18 points over his last three contests. He also picked up five assists against Golden State and his efforts went a long way toward covering the spread. 
He is a big lift for Phoenix with Brandon Knight sidelined with a heel injury and he's shooting an NBA rookie best 56.9 percent from the field for the season and 61.9 percent since the All-Star break. 
Phoenix also played some great team basketball against Golden State and I think that will continue tonight. Six players finished in double figures and the weakest part of the Suns' game might have been on free throws where they shot just 65.4 percent. 
I think we'll see another great team effort against a sub.500 team whom Phoenix beat the last time these two teams met, 100-93, back in February. 10* NBA Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Kentucky Wildcats as my 10* Game Of The Year Saturday.

Kentucky got a scare in the Elite Eight, nearly letting Notre Dame upset its undefeated run to the national title. The Wildcats were playing from behind a lot of that game and will be extra motivated to get ahead on the scoreboard and stay there in Indianapolis Sunday night.

Kentucky hasn’t had many close calls this season but when coming off a tight game the Wildcats have responded with big performances. Following two close overtime wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, John Calipari’s kids trounced Alabama by 15 points. And after a two-point win against LSU, UK blasted South Carolina by 34 points. Of course, Wisconsin is a much stiffer challenge than those SEC rivals but this is a good habit of bouncing back strong from Kentucky, that isn't complacent just winning games.

Wisconsin was able to overwhelm Arizona inside and draw fouls on the Wildcats' key players. That forced Arizona to make some adjustments and step outside its game plan. The Badgers may have similar success versus Kentucky, but this brand of Wildcat runs much further down the bench and can pull four bodies deep from their reserves and not have the same letdown that Arizona suffered.

The Wildcats' habit of turning up the intensity and their deep rotation are why I’m playing on Kentucky as my 10* Game Of The Year Saturday.

I am playing on SACRAMENTO. Playoff hopes may be only a distant memory now for the Sacramento Kings but I feel this team is committed to continued improvement under George Karl and I like them tonight, getting points at home. 
The Kings proved they have no quit right now when they covered the spread in a tough matchup at Houston Wednesday night against the second best team in the West as far as the standings are concerned. They lost 115-111 but easily covered the 10.5 point spread and we saw some great signs that things could be on the up for this team in the future. 
Sacramento clobbered Houston in rebounds 57-42 and the Kings picked up 30 assists Wednesday night. The assists are a sign that the Kings are buying into Karl's system, which involves more ball sharing and a team-oriented offense. 
"George Karl’s system is great, and I’m not just saying that because I play for him," Omri Casspi told the Sacramento Bee recently, "but because I really do believe this is the right way to play basketball. Spacing the floor. Moving, making extra passes, sharing the ball. Getting our hands on balls, deflections, then getting out and running." 
Seven players scored in double figures against Houston Wednesday night and the Kings are scoring much more off assists this year - by about four more percent since Karl arrived - which takes them from second worst in the NBA in that category to middle of the pack. 
Center DeMarcus Cousins is playing off the charts rand is a triple double threat every night lately. He's had at least 24 points in each of his last three games and at least 17 rebounds in three of his last four games. 

Another reason I like the Kings here is they have won four of the last six meetings against the Pelicans. Throw in the points they're getting and I believe this makes for a fantastic Friday play where oddsmakers are being far too generous to the home team. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on PHOENIX. I think the Suns are getting too many points in a spot where I feel they will catch Golden State in a letdown spot. 
While it's true Phoenix has lost four in a row and the Warriors have won 10 in a row, I think that pads the pointspread coming into this game. Golden State officially has nothing left to play for after setting a franchise record for victories over the weekend and officially nailing down the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference.
Some may argue that you could have said the same thing on Monday when the Warriors won and covered against the Clippers. But that was against an in-state rival on home court and I think that's an easy one to get up for. 
Phoenix is still clinging to faint playoff hopes and playing with grit, even though the Suns have some key injuries. T.J. Warren is one player who has been stepping up as injuries hamper the lineup and he has 18 points and 13 points in his last two outings. I think he'll continue to get more comfortable and continue to contribute on a nightly basis, which could go a long way to helping Phoenix cover. 
I believe one of two things will happen tonight - either the Suns play the Warriors tough as they chase playoff hopes, or Golden State will pull away early and then put their bench on the floor, clearing the way for a back door cover with this large spread. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Jazz have been one of the most resurgent teams in the NBA since the All-Star break, fighting their way up the Western Conference standings to sit 11th in the standings. While Utah is very unlikely to make the playoffs, it has kept battling and presents great value against a Denver Nuggets team counting down the days until the season ends.

The Jazz have turned up the defensively intensity since the break, allowing just 94.9 points per game last month – lowest in the NBA. Utah finished March with a 10-6 SU record and takes a two-game winning run into this home stand against Denver, which it has covered against in five of their last six meetings.

The Nuggets also saw a bit of a turnaround in March but finished the month with a loss at Portland. Denver has dropped four of its last six road games and isn’t get the heaping handful of points from the oddsmakers it usually gets away from home. The Nuggets have some payback coming as well, after knocking off the Jazz in the Pepsi Center just last week.

The Jazz continuing to fight through the remainder of the season and get revenge for last week’s loss to the Nuggets are why I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

The Magic open the doors of the Amway Center to the streaking San Antonio Spurs, who are coming off their fourth straight victory after knocking off the Miami Heat in South Beach Tuesday. San Antonio has covered in seven of its last eight games and the market is beginning to pad the Spurs lines, opening up value on the home side Wednesday.

San Antonio faces the Magic on short rest, having flown overnight from Miami to Orlando for the second night of back-to-back games. The Magic have dropped three straight games but have enjoyed an extended break and should have had plenty of time to scout and prepare for San Antonio, having last taken the court on March 27.

Tobias Harris has been a spark since returning from an ankle injury. Not only has the versatile forward scored an average of 17.5 points in his two games back but he laid into his teammates for their sloppy play following the loss to Detroit. Orlando recorded 17 turnovers versus the Pistons and averages 14.9 giveaways on the season. With four days off to tighten up the offense, we are expecting a cleaner game from Orlando.

The Spurs playing the second half of a back-to-back against a well-rested and prepared Magic team are why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as my 10* TNT Main Event Tuesday.

The Clippers can make a huge statement with a win over the Golden State Warriors Thursday, setting the tone for the Western Conference playoffs. I see tremendous value in a Los Angeles team that has no qualms about burying an opponent if they get up on the scoreboard.

The Clippers have won seven straight games heading into this massive matchup with Golden State. And while the level of competition wasn’t that high for this winning streak – featuring the likes of Philadelphia, New York, and Sacramento – the fact L.A. came out of those seven games with a 5-2 ATS record speaks volumes as to how this team is playing right now.

The Warriors are also rolling, with a nine-game winning streak heading into this showdown at the Staples Center. However, six of those wins came at home and Golden State is wrapping up a four-game road trip in Los Angeles, where it has covered in just two of its previous eight road games versus the Clippers.

Los Angeles has the size to give Golden State fits, especially on the boards where the Warriors have been pushed around all season. The Clippers out-rebounded the Celtics 53-40 in their most recent outing, including 13 offensive rebounds. Golden State is giving up 12 offensive boards a game and watched Milwaukee snatch up 15 in its last contest.

The Clippers motivated to make a statement and their ability to dominate the Warriors on the boards are why I’m playing on Los Angeles as my 10* TNT Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Temple Owls as my 10* ESPN Main Event Tuesday.

The Owls have steamrolled their way through the NIT and face Miami in the tournament semifinals. Temple won its last two games by a combined 31 points and has averaged 80 points in the NIT heading to Madison Square Garden.

Miami’s path to the tournament semis hasn’t been as smooth. The Hurricanes squeaked out a two-point win in Richmond to advance to MSG and has won their three NIT games by a combined 14 points. Miami doesn’t run the same pace as Temple nor has it been as efficient on offense, with the Owls knocking down 46 percent of their shot in the NIT.

Temple spreads its scoring load over three players, with Will Cummings, Jesse Morgan, and Quenton DeCosey making up a tough trio to lock down. The Hurricanes have been leaning on Sheldon McClellan, especially with star point guard Angel Rodriguez out with a wrist injury. While the Owls are getting it done with scoring, they also sat among the best defensive teams in the country, limiting opponents to just 61.2 points per game.

The Owls’ balanced scoring and momentum are why I’m playing on Temple as my 10* ESPN Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

Toronto is trying to push itself up the Eastern Conference standings, currently sitting in fourth place but just one and a half games back of the Chicago Bulls for the No. 3 seed. The Raptors got a much-needed win against the Lakers last time out and roll that momentum over into this home stand with Houston.

The Rockets take the court for the second night of back-to-back games after playing in Washington Sunday. Houston started hot but let up in the second half, nearly letting the Wizards back into the game. The Rockets have had that bad habit all year, scoring 53.5 points per first half – second most in the NBA - then suffering a power outage in the final two frames, averaging only 49.1 points in the second half – ranked 18th in the league.

That letdown fits Toronto perfectly. The Raptors have also been cursed with a similar issue, unable to close out games. The Raptors have allowed 25.3 points per fourth quarter this season, watching numerous games slip away in the final 12 minutes. However, Toronto turned in a solid 23-point fourth versus the Lakers, limiting L.A. to just 17 points. The Raptors average 25.9 fourth-quarter points at home - fifth most in the NBA.

The Rockets’ bad habit of letting up in the second half and the Raptors pushing through their fourth quarter issues are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. I have taken Louisville the past two games and I believe it's going to pay off for a third straight game as head coach Rick Pitino makes his 12th appearance in the Elite Eight.

The Cardinals definitely picked the right time to play their best basketball of the season and they are beating teams however they need to, whether with suffocating defense or balanced offense. This is a completely different team than the one we saw stumble for a stretch of three losses in four games in February and now the Cards are looking like world beaters - and they are still being underestimated by oddsmakers by getting points here against Michigan State.  

"At the beginning of the season, there was too much 1-on-1,'' guard Quentin Snider said after Friday's win over N.C. State. "Too many guys worried about themselves. Now, we're playing as a team."

Snider is right about that. Louisville is back to playing incredible team defense, throwing zones, presses and tough man-to-man play into the mix throughout games. The result is they are surrendering just 57.3 points per game through the tournament and that's against some pretty hot shooting teams like Northern Iowa and the Wolf Pack.

The Cardinals are also getting huge performances - from the usual stars and some emerging ones - on offense. Team leading scorer Terry Rozier is off the charts right now at guard and is coming off a 17-point performance and a season-high 14 rebounds against N.C. State.

Louisville had four scorers finish in double figures in the Sweet 16 including Montrezl Harrell's 24 points. Harrell is the second leading scorer and playing great ball but there's also Quentin Snider, a freshman who averaged just 4 points this season, who now has scored in double digits in all three tourney games.

It seems like everything is coming together at the right time for Louisville and I like them to slip past Michigan State. The Cardinals won the last tournament meeting between these two in 2012, 57-44, when Louisville went on to win the national championship. 10* Elite Eight Game Of The Year

I am playing on MILWAUKEE. You may not have guessed it but the Bucks actually love playing Golden State when it comes to covering the spread. Milwaukee is 7-1-1 against the number in the last nine meetings including covering the last two times these teams met despite the fact the Warriors won. 
Now the Bucks are getting points on home court where they typically perform far better than on the road this season. Milwaukee enters this game after two solid wins against Miami (as an underdog) and the Pacers and I think the Bucks will at least keep it very close against the Warriors. 
Everyone knows Golden State is on fire these days but the Warriors enter this game after playing at Memphis just last night. I think we might see a bit of fatigue in their legs in this back-to-back spot in what is the third game of a four-game, cross-country road trip. 
The Bucks are playing great basketball right now and getting key contributions from players who are stepping up as they hold onto sixth place in the Eastern playoff standings. Ersan Ilyasova scored a career-high 34 points on Thursday and center Zaza Pachulia piled up 14 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in a big night against Miami two games ago. 
Golden State has first place in the West pretty much wrapped up so I'm not sure how much the Warriors have left to play for as they cruise toward the start of the playoffs. I think a more desperate Milwaukee squad that's getting points at home will find a way to cover or win outright Saturday night. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Oklahoma Sooners as my 10* Friday Best Bet.

The Sooners have taken care of business in their first two tournament games and now face the Michigan State Spartans in the Round of 16 Friday. No. 3 Oklahoma has shown why it’s one of the most balanced teams in the country, getting it done on both ends of the floor in the NCAA so far.

However, the betting market is overreacting to Michigan State’s impressive upset over No. 2 Virginia in the Round of 32 and actually has the No. 7 Spartans set as the betting favorite. We’re capitalizing on this public opinion and taking the Sooners to cover.

The Spartans were solid in their win over the Cavaliers but also caught Virginia in a very poor game. The Cavaliers were ice cold from beyond the arc and didn’t play their brand of defense. Undoubtedly, Tom Izzo coached this team up for the upset but it also sets MSU up for a massive letdown in the Sweet 16.

Oklahoma plays a much more frenetic pace than what the Spartans are used to dealing with. The Sooners average 71.9 points on 69.9 possessions per game and will look to push the tempo and catch MSU on its heels before it can get set in the halfcourt. The Spartans have had great success stuffing teams with help defense in slower-paced games but won’t have that on their side as the Sooners turn up the intensity.

The market shift toward the Spartans and the Sooners’ ability to beat MSU down the floor are why I’m playing on Oklahoma as my 10* Friday Best Bet.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. It seems like everyone kind of forgot Rick Pitino's teams can play some pretty good defense when they want to and as a result we are only seeing Louisville lay a tiny number here.

The Cards are playing their best hoops of the season at the right time and despite the national attention, it doesn't look to me like oddsmakers have quite caught on yet. The Cardinals have allowed fewer than 60 points in six of their last eight games and have allowed an average of 54 per game through their first two games of the tournament.

Louisville shut down one of the hottest shooting teams in the nation in Northern Iowa last game, winning 66-53. They held the Panthers to 39 percent on field goals (after a season average of 48%) and just 31.6% on 3-pointers after UNI shot over 40 percent from long range for the season. The Panthers also had a horrendous 10 turnovers against nine assists, a testament to the Cards' stifling play.

The Cards are switching it up with zones and man coverage as well as pressing at different times. I just don't feel N.C. State wants to get into that kind of game as a squad that gives up over 70 points a game on neutral courts this season.

The Cardinals are getting big offensive performances from their usual stars like Rozier and Harrell, but also from unexpected players like Quentin Snider who has 10 and 16 points in the tournament after averaging 3.8 all season.

With defense like Louisville is playing right now and production from unexpected places, don't be surprised if the Cards keep going into March and covering spreads along the way. 10* Friday Personal Favorite

I am playing on WISCONSIN. Beating the Badgers takes a lot more stopping potential national player of the year Frank Kaminsky and I don't feel the Tar Heels have enough to pull off the upset or cover the spread here.

Oregon tried to double team the big man, who averages 18.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.5 blocks. The Ducks swarmed and double teamed Kaminsky but he still managed 16 points while three of his teammates scored at least 12. Sam Dekker ripped off 17 - 14 in the second half- and is draining at least half his 2-pointers in four of his last five games.

Nigel Hayes is another versatile forward who hasn't scored fewer than 15 points in any of his last four games while also grabbing at least five boards in those efforts - not to mention an average of three assists per game during those games.

I just don't think UNC can match up in the front court here where big forward Kennedy Meeks is listed as doubtful and will likely be hurting if he does play.

The Badgers might just be too much for anybody right now with at least 70 points in seven straight games. Wisconsin can also play some defense with just 56.8 points against this season, which is about 12 fewer than UNC allows.

Bettors saw the value here on Wisconsin and pounced early. I still feel this line isn't high enough and UNC won't have the guns to keep up and cover the number. 10* Sweet 16 Game Of The Year

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I think we have some added value on the Irish in this game because most bettors are going to be focusing on the fact they have failed to cover in eight straight tournament games.

But don't let that scare you. The bigger focus should be on the two most recent games where Notre Dame just happened to be laying too many against two very good teams but still managed to gut out wins.

I'm not sure there are any other No. 3 seeds who had as tough an opening weekend as Notre Dame in facing Northeastern and Butler and I think the gritty victories will give the team a huge lift of confidence heading into the Sweet 16.

This is an offense vs. defense battle and I believe Notre Dame's No. 12 nationally ranked scoring offense will prevail. The Irish average 78.2 points per game and they rely on 50 percent field goal shooting and nearly 40 percent 3-point shooting to blow opponents away. It's how they claimed the ACC tournament championship in beating UNC 90-82.

Another element I like about the Irish is they adjusted from game to game in the first weekend and have done what they needed to do to advance. They got badly outrebounded by Northeastern 31-36, but they turned things around against Butler. Notre Dame won the boards 36-31 against a very good rebounding squad in Butler, which shows me they are adapting to who they're playing.

I think believe we'll see Notre Dame’s best game of the tournament when they face Wichita State and I love that they are getting points. 10* Thursday Best Bet

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns are suddenly a bettor's best friend with four straight wins and covered spreads and I like them to continue that trend Wednesday night against Sacramento. 
The biggest reason why Phoenix has become such a great bet is the team has finally committed to defense as they make a run to sneak into the playoffs as it sits three games out of the picture. The Suns have gone from one of the worst defensive clubs in the NBA with over 103 points against per game to allowing just 90.2 points against over their past five. 
The Suns have actually held opponents to fewer than 100 points in seven of their last eight games and eight of their last nine games have fallen under the total. They are shockingly third in NBA defensive efficiency over the past 15 games, something I'm sure Phoenix fans thought they'd never see this season. 
I believe two things are happening - the Suns are finally buying into Jeff Hornacek's systems after the trades of Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic and they are going with a bigger lineup. 
Phoenix had to move to a bigger lineup after Brandon Knight suffered an ankle injury and P.J. Tucker was moved from small forward to shooting guard. Tucker is kicking butt on defense by shutting down the opposition's stars from that spot and Phoenix is also rebounding much better. 
They've outrebounded the competition by an average of 51-39 during the four-game winning streak. Tucker was also instrumental in holding James Harden to 16 points (Harden averages 27 per game) and the Mavs' Monta Ellis to 11 points (who leads the Mavs with 19 points per game). 
Sacramento beat the Suns in the last meeting in early February but I think the Kings are going to see a completely different and much improved Suns team and I don't believe they'll be able to adjust -- much like the rest of Phoenix's competition lately. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

It’s a toilet bowl game on Tuesday with the Philadelphia 76ers facing the Sacramento Kings in a battle of NBA basement dwellers. However, being at the bottom of the Western Conference is much different than being at the bottom of the East, and we like the situational spot the Kings find themselves in versus the Sixers.

Philadelphia is in the middle game of a three-stop West Coast road trip, playing far away from home in a late 10 p.m. ET tipoff. The 76ers are just 12-20-2 ATS on the road this season and have struggled with teams from the Pacific Division, going 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference encounters with Pacific opponents.

The Kings snapped a four-game losing skid with back-to-back home wins over Eastern opponents, defeating the Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards heading into Tuesday’s action. The Kings’ current form has a lot to with their hot hand from outside, draining 17 of their last 38 looks from 3-point range. They buried eight triples (8 for 17) in the win over Washington Sunday. Sacramento is also out for revenge against Philadelphia in this matchup, having lost 114-107 in Philly earlier this month.

The Sixers’ road woes and the Kings coming into this game with the hot hand are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Brooklyn Nets as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Nets are quickly pulling toward the front of the Eastern Conference playoff race, having won two in a row and four of their last five to sit one game back of the Charlotte Hornets for the eighth and final postseason spot – and just half a game behind Monday’s opponent, the Boston Celtics.

Brooklyn has been pouring on the points during this run, with five players averaging double-digit scoring efforts over the previous five games. The Nets offense isn’t just a flash in the pan either, taking the fight to the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks – two of the stingiest teams in the conference – the past two games. Center Brook Lopez has been a monster inside, with a total of 58 points, 22 rebounds and nine blocks in those two contests.

Boston, on the other hand, looks to be running out of steam. The Celtics have dropped three in a row and are coming off an overtime loss to the Detroit Pistons Sunday night. If Boston was feeling the effects of a long season before that, it will be running on empty against an energized Brooklyn squad Monday night on the road.

The Nets’ offensive explosion and the Celtics running on fumes on back-to-back games are why I’m playing on Brooklyn as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. The Cardinals are in a good place as far as bettors are concerned coming into this matchup and it may not be what you think – it’s on the road and as an underdog.

This solid Louisville squad typically saw too much chalk at home this season and when favored in general and the numbers show it. The Cardinals were a wallet-burning 8-17 against the number as a favorite this season compared to 3-2 ATS as an underdog. They were also 4-12-2 ATS at home compared to a much less costly 7-7 ATS on the road.

So I really like that they are getting points here and I think it has a lot to do with how their first game went. Louisville barely scraped past UC Irvine 57-55 and I think that has them undervalued here.

A big reason why that game was so close was the matchup between Montrezl Harrell and UCI’s 7-foot-6, 300-pound center Mamadou Ndiaye. Normally Louisville doesn't have so much trouble in the post and the Cards need Harrell to play well in order to keep advancing. I think he'll do so against a more manageable Seth Tuttle, a 6-foot-8, 240-pound forward who will feel like a smurf compared to Ndiaye.

Northern Iowa also likes to beat up on teams with a hot 3-ball but Louisville is holding opponents to just 29.4 percent from long range this season and the numbers were even better on the road.

I think an undervalued, pro-coached Louisville squad moves past Northern Iowa in a tough game that will be worth watching. 10* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. After successfully taking Northeastern to cover the big number against the Irish, I now believe Notre Dame will win and cover in its next game on Saturday.

For those thinking Notre Dame just didn't play well on Thursday, I don't really think that was entirely the case. The Irish simply ran into a pretty good Northeastern team that was being undervalued by oddsmakers and they got the job done.

I think this second game is a better matchup for Notre Dame. Butler is a small squad with no player listed over 6-9 and it wins with defense and turnovers. I don't think they'll be able to slow a more talented Irish squad enough to cover the number and Notre Dame is usually pretty good at taking care of the ball.

I think Butler may have trouble keeping up with Notre Dame with this one with their leading scorer, Roosevelt Jones, playing on a sprained knee (if he does play). Jones was visibly limping when he returned to the game against Texas from the injury and with Notre Dame's 78.5 points per game, this is a team you need all your scorers for.

Notre game is shooting an awesome 51.2 percent on field goals on the season and 39.2 percent from downtown, which is significantly better than Butler in both areas.

One of the spots that could also really hurt Butler is free throw shooting where it drains shots at just 68.1 percent. Notre Dame isn't known for letting teams get to the line too often and I feel that could be a key difference in them getting Notre Dame its sixth covered spread in seven games. 10* personal fav

I’m playing on the Arkansas Razorbacks as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

Both North Carolina and Arkansas got a scare in the Round of 64, with UNC escaping with a win against Harvard and Arkansas just dodging the upset bullet versus Wofford. North Carolina is set as the favorite in this Round of 32 contest but will have a tough matchup with the Hogs.

Arkansas has one of the best big men in the country, with NBA-bound Bobby Portis coming off a 15-point, 13-rebound effort in the win over the Terriers. North Carolina is used to having the most talented forwards on the floor and could struggle to contain Portis, especially on the boards. The Heels depend on controlling the glass to give themselves second-chance looks and may not find those as easily Saturday.

North Carolina played a very sloppy game against the Crimson in the Round of 64, turning the ball over 18 times. The Heels coughed the ball up 13 times in the loss to Notre Dame in the ACC championship and average 16.3 turnovers over their last three games. Arkansas is one of the best pressure teams in the country, ranked 13th in turnovers forced (15.7 per game) and 29th in steals (7.7 points per game). Those takeaways led to easy buckets for the Razorbacks.

The Razorbacks matching UNC’s size inside and their ability to capitalize on a sloppy Tar Heels team are why I’m playing on Arkansas as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns have quietly turned into a scorching hot bet and that has flown under the radar because of their straight up record. 
Phoenix has covered six of its last eight games, though the team has turned out a modest 5-3 straight up record during that stretch and the wins haven't been the prettiest. The Suns have run into some cold shooting lately and as a result they are winning with something we haven't seen much of from them this season - defense. 
It hasn't helped that Brandon Knight and Alex Len have been injured the last couple of games but the defense has stepped up to hold six straight teams to fewer than 100 points. That's not something we're used to seeing from a Suns squad that gives up a generous 103.8 points per game. 
Phoenix held the Pelicans to an embarrassing 72 points in a win Thursday night, which was also the seventh straight game to go 'under' for the Suns. I think they'll use that tough defensive effort to at least cover the spread against Houston Saturday night. 
The Rockets have won all three meetings this season but they were higher scoring affairs that saw an average of 221 points per game. I think they may struggle a little more against a different Suns team that can suddenly play some defense and is playing desperate basketball in hopes of making the playoffs. 
Eric Bledsoe has also been a nice bright spot for Phoenix lately since the Dragic and Thomas trades. He has averaged 16.5 points, 6.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds since then and only Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and James Harden average at least 15 points, six rebounds and six assists since the All-Star game and trade deadline. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on IOWA. Davidson is one of those teams that poolies love to pencil in on their brackets before tourney time but I feel Iowa is the better squad and will move on from this matchup.

The Hawkeyes play much better defense in a tougher conference and I feel they'll be able to get the stops they need them to move past the Wildcats. Iowa also holds a size advantage over Davidson's starting five with the Wildcats' tallest starter going at 6-7 and the other four listed at 6-4 and smaller. The Hawkeyes have three starters at 6-9 or bigger and I feel Iowa can dominate around the basket and in rebounding.

Iowa's Aaron White could be the difference maker in this game as one of the nation's most underrated players. He's the only player in the country to average over 16 points and over seven rebounds, while shooting above a 50 percent from the field and 80 percent from the free throw line. White highlights a great free-throw shooting team in general, where the Hawkeyes rank 34th in the nation at the charity stripe compared to 273rd for Davidson.

The two teams had one common opponent this season, North Carolina, and Iowa fared much better. The Hawkeyes beat North Carolina on Dec. 3 while the Tar Heels defeated Davidson, 90-72, Nov. 11 in Charlotte.  10* Opening Game Of The Year

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. You don't often see revenge or redemption as a key factor in an early round NCAA matchup but I think it will be a big element for Oklahoma State in this game. 
The Cowboys fell to Oregon in the teams' NCAA opener in 2013 68-55 and Oklahoma State will be extra hungry to win this one on Friday. Le'Bryan Nash, Michael Cobbins and Phil Forte are all back for OK State after being key parts of that 2013 team, while Oregon doesn't have any returning players from 2013. 
That makes this a very young Ducks team with six freshman, half of whom have made at least 10 starts this season. That makes me skeptical about how far their experience level can take them when the spotlight of the NCAA tournament is shining on them. 
Oregon had a hot finish to the season but got absolutely clobbered by Arizona in the Pac-12 final, 80-52, when the pressure was on against a top team. 
I think Oklahoma State comes into this a little underestimated. Nash is an NBA prospect with 17.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game and he's the kind of player who can take a game over. Phil Forte III also drains threes at 39 percent and averaged 15.1 points per game this season. 
Oklahoma State also ranked 22nd in blocks and 26th in steals per game this season and I think they surprise some people by advancing past Oregon. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on GEORGETOWN. Eastern Washington seems to be one of the more popular upset picks heading into March Madness but I'm not buying it. 
A big part of the hype is that the Eagles own the nation's top scorer in sophomore guard Tyler Harvey who averages 22.9 points per game. No doubt he's a great player but it's not like anyone is going to embarrass Georgetown at the guard position. 
The Hoyas have their own star guard in junior D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, who tops the team with 16.2 points per game. To complement Smith-Rivera Georgetown has a big size advantage with the monstrous Joshua Smith. The 6-10, 350-pound beast averages 11.1 points and 5.9 rebounds and I think will give Eastern Washington a matchup fit with the Eagles' tallest starter being 6-8. 
Georgetown has depth advantage also with a regular rotation of seven players and eight players are averaging at least five points per game. 
Where I feel Eastern Washington is really going to lose out is on defense, where the Hoyas are considerably better. They allow almost 10 fewer points per game than the Eagles in a much tougher conference and own better defensive shooting numbers across the board than Eastern Washington. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns haven't played since Sunday and enter this game fully rested and prepared. I think they'll earn a valuable win against the team one spot ahead of them in the chase for the final playoff spot.

Phoenix has the toughest closing stretch of schedule of any team in the NBA where only two of its opponents own sub-.500 records. So games at home with this kind of rest and preparation time are ones the Suns can't afford to lose.

Besides the prep time and home court, one big reason I like the Suns is the Pelicans enter this one shooting on the cold side from 3-point range. They went 8-of-25 against the Bucks last game and just 6-of-22 against the Nuggets two games ago.

Another reason I like Phoenix is the Suns have won four of the last five meetings straight up against the Pelicans for a 3-2 against the spread record. The Pelicans won the only meeting this year 110-106, but I think the Suns learned from that meeting.

With Brandon Knight's status in doubt, hobbled on an injured ankle, the Suns may go with a bigger lineup than usual. I believe that's a better way to go against a bigger Pelicans squad and with Phoenix shooting slightly better from 3-point range right now, I think the Suns manage to pull this one out. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins have taken a lot of flak for even being named to the tournament but that gives them a little extra from oddsmakers in my opinion. 
The Bruins played the toughest schedule of any Pac-12 team and I think their record is a little better than the numbers indicate. They’ll play another tough opponent and UCLA definitely holds an experience edge with this being their third straight NCAA tournament. SMU was strong all season but I expect they’ll feel the heat of the raised stakes in what will be the Mustangs’ first tourney appearance since 1993. 
UCLA is playing its best ball of the season with nine wins in its last 13 regular season games and the Bruins were one of the best bets in the country during that stretch with 10 covered spreads. They threatened Arizona in the Pac-12 tourney, who is a legit Final Four possibility. 
The Bruins feature five players who average double figures this season and they are averaging an explosive 81 points per game over their last five. They’re shooting 52 percent from field goal range and better than 44 percent from downtown over those games. 
If they can make this a shooting contest against SMU, and I believe they can, I think they move on to the next round. They should also approach this game with all the pressure squarely on SMU after the media ripped the tournament committee all week after giving them a ticket to the Dance. 10* Thurs. Afternoon Best Bet

I am playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. Boston may be on a hot run overall right now with five straight wins, but win it comes to playing the Thunder, the Celtics are nothing but ice cold. 
Boston has lost and failed to cover in the last four meetings with OKC and has lost and failed to cover in seven of the last eight meetings. It didn’t exactly bode well for the C’s that this game opened with a point spread of 7 either – the Thunder are 7-2 against the spread this season when favored by 7 or 7.5 points. 
I think OKC should be favored by more here but the absence of Kevin Durant is giving the Thunder more value. They have actually covered the spread in three straight games and we all know Russell Westbrook is a nightly triple-double threat without Durant in the lineup in a run that’s blowing everyone’s mind. 
His worst statistical performance over his last 10 games was a 24-point, 9 rebound, seven assist effort against the Clippers on March 11. So we can pretty much assume he’s going to go off on a nightly basis. Enes Kanter also has four double-doubles in his last five games and I just don’t think the Celtics will be able to match up on the road. 
OKC needs games like this if it wants to ensure making the playoffs. The Thunder only get two more cracks at losing Eastern Conference teams this season – this game and another against the Heat. 
I believe they’ll capitalize.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. Under just about any other circumstance this season, I don't believe there's any way UConn would only be favored by only a few points at home against an Arizona State squad. 
But there's a factor in this point spread that won't show up on the stats sheet and that's the letdown factor. UConn, who is coming off a national championship from a year ago, knew the only way it was going to qualify for the tournament was by winning the AAC tournament. Just like last year and just like once before that when the school amazingly went on to win the NCAA title. 
And it seemed fated for a while over the weekend when UConn stormed to the title game but ultimately fell to SMU in a tough game where team star Ryan Boatright was held to just seven points on 1-for-7 field goal shooting and 1-for-9 3-point shooting. 
Now the Huskies have to somehow find a way to pick their tails up from between their legs and convince themselves the NIT is worth tying up their laces for. 
"We’ve got another opportunity to play in front of our fans, put that jersey on,” said head coach Kevin Ollie. “Basically, that’s it." 
Yep. Basically that's about it. 
I also like the fact that the NIT is experimenting with a shorter, 30 second shot clock which cuts five seconds off the current number. That should encourage a faster pace, which leans to Arizona State’s favor.  10* Best Bet

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. The Clippers are simply a more talented team than the Hornets and I feel they’ll  cover here on home court. 
Blake Griffin returned to the lineup Sunday after missing 15 games to injury and the Clippers fell to Houston 100-98. The first game back from an injury for star player is often a tough one for both the player and his team and it’s not overly surprising to me the Clippers didn’t beat the Rockets. 
Griffin only had 11 points , about half his per-game average, and he forced it a little too much on 4-for-10 field goal shooting. But I think he’ll rebound with a big game against a weaker opponent after shaking some game rust off in his return. 
Charlotte doesn’t exactly love L.A. either. The Hornets have failed to cover in four straight road games against the Clippers and they are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 meetings overall. 
The Hornets are also playing on back-to-back nights and could be fresh meat for the Clippers. Charlotte was humiliated in Utah in a 94-66 defeat in which the team failed to cover by a sickening 23.5 points. 
So the Hornets aren’t exactly storming into L.A. with a ton of confidence after an ice-cold shooting display in Utah where they shot worse than 30 percent from the field and went just 5-for-19 on 3-pointers.  
That’s rough to bounce back from and I feel the Clippers will take advantage. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on UTEP.  What is often the biggest factor in the NIT tournament is one that will never show up on a stats sheet or box score. It's the motivation factor. 
In this case I feel Murray State won't have it after failing to qualify for the NCAA tournament following a soul crushing loss to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game two weekends ago. 
It was an 88-87 scrape-out win for Belmont that came on a miracle three-pointer with 3.2 seconds left and it's that one-point that makes it so tough for Murray State.  
“That’s the first time I’ve walked through a handshake line and I had nothing to say,” Murray State coach Steve Prohm said last week. “I tried to be as gracious as I could, but everything was just knocked out of you. Our guys were just an emotional wreck.”
The loss snapped an incredible 25-game winning streak - including a 16-0 record in conference play - for the Racers that was rendered irrelevant by one precious point.
If the Racers played sooner after that loss, I think it might have been better for them. But 11 days is a long time to think about what went wrong and I don't think the layoff does them any favors here. 
Their hopes were crushed again on Selection Sunday when they weren't chosen for the tournament instead of having their attention focused on this game.
UTEP didn't have that problem and the NIT could be an opportunity to make it to MSG. I love that they are getting points here and they should be motivated to play on national TV in March with the chance to pull off a decent team in its own gym. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on the HEAT. I think we have an inflated line here with what I perceive to be a public perception that leans to have LeBron’s Cavs having a big showing against his former team.  
“Wherever LeBron goes, the attention goes with him,” said Miami’s Dwyane Wade.
James scored 30 points in his first trip back to Miami on Christmas Day but it was all for not as the Heat beat Cleveland 101-91 on Christmas Day. He scored 18 in a more balanced attack for Cleveland in the second meeting this season, a 10-point win for the Cavs in Cleveland. 
We don’t know if LeBron will play tonight. He had a bad fall on his right leg in last night’s game in Orlando and is listed as questionable.  If he does play, he could be slowed by the injury. Kevin Love is also a little banged up with a back injury and though he is expected to play he may not be at 100 percent. 
Another reason I like Miami here is they’ve been bouncing back from tough games lately with great performances. They are 5-0-2 against the spread following a loss and they lost in their last game, 102-92., to the Raptors. 
I think the addition of Goran Dragic since the last time the Heat faced Cleveland should help also. Dragic is averaging 16.4 points and 4.9 assists in 10 games since joining the Heat.  The Heat did not match up well against Cleveland at guard in the last meeting when Wade missed the game and Mario Chalmers and Shabazz Napier started in the back court. The Heat will provide a much tougher matchup this time around. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on WASHINGTON. I feel the Wizards are getting a great line here, maybe in part because the Blazers blew out a couple of bad teams in their most recent games. 
The Blazers are playing well lately, winning eight of their last 10 but they’ve blown up struggling squads  (Detroit and Toronto)  their last two games for 113 and 118 points and I think that has this line a little inflated. All five starters scored in double figures on Sunday against the Raptors but Toronto can’t play any kind of defense right now and the Raps don’t have the talent to keep up with Portland. 
That’s not the case in Washington, where the Wizards have a solid starting five that starts of course with John Wall. Wall is tied for the league lead with 10 assists per game and leads guards in the league with 34 double doubles this season.  He’s coming off a season tying high of 31 points against Sacramento where he also dished out 12 assists. 
Portland is going to have a much tougher time defending the Wizards than some of their more recent opponents the Wiz can play some defense too.  They rank eighth in the league at points against per game and seventh in defending field goals. They’ve also held their opponents to a combined 37 points in the fourth quarter in their last three wins. 
I don’t think Portland is going get as many easy buckets tonight as they’ve been seeing lately and I think the Wizards pull off this win on home court.  It’s worth noting that Portland is also 1-6 against the spread in the last seven meetings in Washington. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Toronto finally snapped a four-game losing skid with a victory over the Miami Heat Friday and build on that against the visiting Portland Trail Blazers Sunday. The Raptors have enjoyed some time off after the victory to study what worked for the team after such a nasty slide.

Toronto was having issues closing out games, allowing 25.5 points per fourth quarter this season, but held off the Heat for a much-need victory. The Raptors got a big boost from the bench down the stretch, with the reserves scoring a collective 40 points in the win. Portland doesn’t boast that same depth and ranks second last in the NBA in bench scoring, getting an average of only 25.9 points per game from its reserves.

Portland hasn’t shown much of a weakness since losing Wesley Matthews for the season due to injury. The Blazers have gone 7-1 in their last eight games, however, closer inspection of that record has five of those games coming in the Rose Garden – one of the NBA’s toughest venues – and the remaining three road games were against the Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings.

We expect Portland to face its first true test of depth Sunday night on the road against a hungry Toronto squad fighting to stay in the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors' deep bench and the Blazers’ overrated winning run are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the SMU Mustangs as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Southern Methodist has proven it is the class of the AAC all season and can lock up a conference it’s dominated with a win over UConn in the conference tournament championship Sunday. The Mustangs are coming off a very impressive victory over Temple in the AAC semifinals, taking down a talented Owls team in a 69-56 win.

Southern Methodist isn’t going to be taking the Huskies lightly and, in fact, will be out for some revenge Sunday after losing to Connecticut in their most recent meeting – an 81-73 loss in Storrs back on March 1. The Mustangs did handle the Huskies at home with a 73-55 victory in mid-February, limiting UConn to 34 percent shooting and forcing 15 turnovers.

Southern Methodist is well aware the Huskies have a home-court edge in Hartford, where the UConn faithful have not been kind to SMU so far this weekend, raining down boos and chants of “overrated” during the Mustangs’ matchups. Head coach Larry Brown will undoubtedly use that challenge to spark a fire under his players Sunday.

SMU is ranked among the top defenses in the country, allowing just 59.9 points per game, and will turn its attention to Connecticut star Ryan Boatright, who is the heart and soul of the UConn offense. The Mustangs will throw their pressure at the Huskies, hoping to capitalize with easy buckets off of turnovers, but can also plug up the paint, having shown a solid zone defense in the win over Temple.

The Mustangs hard-nosed defense and dominance over this conference all season are why I’m playing on SMU as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Aztecs take on the upstart Wyoming Cowboys in the Mountain West Conference championship, following Wyoming’s stunning overtime victory against Boise State Friday night. The Cowboys are ripe for a letdown in this short turnaround, taking on an SDSU squad that has played in the conference title game in six of the last seven seasons.

The Aztecs won both meetings against Wyoming this season, dropping the Cowboys 67-41 at home and 60-52 on the road. San Diego did take advantage of a shorthanded Cowboys roster in that most recent meeting, with Wyoming star Larry Nance Jr. dealing with illness. However, SDSU has locked down all comers during its first two games of the MWC tournament, including a 56-43 win over Colorado State Friday, and will be up to the challenge again Saturday.

On top of that smothering defense, the Aztecs have three proven scorers in Dwayne Polee, Winston Shepard and Aqeel Quinn. That trio combined for 44 points in the win over the Rams, and all three average double figures on the season. The Cowboys have a tough defense – ranked sixth in the country – but may not have the scoring depth to keep up with SDSU. Outside of Nance, Wyoming leans heavily on Josh Adams to spark the offense. If the Aztecs defense can take one of those two away, the Cowboys could crumble under the big-game pressure.

The Cowboys primed for a letdown and the Aztecs' championship experience are why I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the VCU Rams as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Rams have some unfinished business with the Davidson Wildcats in the Atlantic 10 semifinals Saturday. Virginia Commonwealth, which welcomed the Wildcats to the A-10 with a 71-65 win back in January, took one on the chin in their most recent meeting.

Davidson handed VCU its worse loss of the Shaka Smart era, dropping the Rams 82-55 just last week. That one-sided defeat was part of a season-ending slide for VCU, which tumbled from first to fifth in the conference while the Wildcats caught fire and took over the No. 1 seed for the tournament. We expect this to be a huge revenge spot for VCU, which is always a dangerous underdog come March.

The Rams will throw their famed pressure defense at the Wildcats attack, looking to cause chaos and score off of Davidson’s mistakes. Virginia Commonwealth forced and average of 16.6 turnovers per contest and ranked second in the country in steals, swiping nearly 10 per game. In their first meeting with the Wildcats, the Rams forced 15 turnovers and recorded 13 steals.

Davidson may be slowing down after an incredible run. The Wildcats nearly got upset by La Salle Friday night, shooting just 39 percent from the field while allowing the Explorers to knock down half their looks . They were down as many as 18 points – a deficit the Rams won’t relinquish if they get up Saturday.

The Rams out for revenge and the Wildcats perhaps peaking too soon are why I’m playing on VCU as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I am playing on DALLAS. The Mavs have been in a funk recently, which means we're dealing with a small spread here, but I think they're about to break out of their losing ways with a big win on Friday. 
There's nothing a team can fix faster than a lack of effort and it's sounding like that's been the biggest problem for Dallas lately. Recent addition to the Dallas locker room, Amar'e Stoudemire, blasted his team after a 127-94 loss to the Cavaliers Tuesday night. 
"We can't screw around in shootarounds and practices and joke around all the time and figure we're going to win games," Stoudemire said. "This is the pros. It's the highest level of basketball. We've got to act that way." and head coach Rick Carlisle followed up." 
Head coach Rick Carlisle seemed to agree because Wednesday's practice ran an hour longer than scheduled and had a more serious tone than usual. 
I think the Mavs will get the message and I expect to see a completely different team against the Clippers Friday night. It's not really something that shows up in the box score and these are the kinds of spots where we can take advantage of oddsmakers. 
Clippers' starting point guard and star Chris Paul hurt his ankle in Wednesday's game against OKC. He's questionable and if he plays it plays into the Mavs' favor that he could be playing through some pain. 10* Main Event

I am playing on TORONTO. I think the Raptors are going to come out on fire against the Heat in hopes of shaking off what is one of the worst team-vs-team losing streaks in pro sports right now. 
The Raps have embarrassingly lost 16 straight to Miami and that has to be playing on their minds heading into this one. The Raps haven't had their most memorable stretch overall lately and aftetr a 117-107 loss over San Antonio Tuesday night, team leader Kyle Lowry cussed his team's effort to reporters saying Toronto needs a "kick in the ass". 
I expect the Raps to throw everything they have at the Heat and I like the fact that their offense is picking up, despite the fact it hasn't translated into wins yet. Toronto has averaged 106.2 points in its last five games after sagging to just 90.4 points per game in the five games before that. 
In fairness, just two of Toronto's last 10 games have come on the road and I think home court will do the Raps some good. The Raptors seem to play better defense on home court where they allow about three fewer points than on the road. The Heat are also just 2-7-1 against the spread this season  on the road against teams with a .600 or betting winning percentage. 
Gimme Toronto to end the losing streak in front of a nationally televised audience north of the border. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Oklahoma State Cowboys as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

Oklahoma State runs into a familiar foe in its opening game of the Big 12 tournament, facing the Oklahoma Sooners at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. The Cowboys sputtered down the stretch, picking up just one win in their last six conference contests. But when Bedlam is involved, recent records can get tossed out the window. We see great value with the Pokes in this heated matchup.

Oklahoma State dropped both meetings with Oklahoma this season but present a challenge to the Sooners. Beating a team three times in one season is a tough task for even the best teams. Oklahoma closed the schedule with a big win over Kansas but has been soft defensively to end the season. The Sooners allowed 73 points to Kansas and 77 in a loss to Iowa State in their final two games. They also barely escaped with a 79-75 overtime win at TCU on February 21.

The Cowboys offense is hoping to find its form after watching its production drop the few past weeks. Oklahoma State did get some encouraging results in its 82-70 win over Texas Christian and scored 72 points in a loss to West Virginia to end the year. Standout guard Phil Forte II is finally starting to feel healthy again after battling the flu for most of February and is anxious to get another shot at the Sooners, who the Pokes have gone 3-0 SU against in the Big 12 tournament.

The Sooners softening on defense and the Cowboys out for revenge on the big stage are why I’m playing on Oklahoma State as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

I am playing on MINNESOTA.  There is no way around this one – Rutgers is just plain horrible and I think the Scarlett Knights will be happy to be put out of their misery on Wednesday. 
The Knights will already be deer in headlights in their first Big Ten tournament, much like they were for most of the season.  They lost 10 conference games by double digits this season and went 0-9 on the road so it shouldn’t matter much that oddsmakers are handing them a bunch of points. 
Rutgers ranks last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (59 points) and in 3-pointers per game (4.7) and ranks second last in turnovers. The Gophers learned how generous the Knights can be in the last meeting when they coughed up the ball 19 times in a game Minnesota won 89-80. 
The Knights enter this matchup on a 14-game losing streak and they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. They’re shooting worse than 40 percent over their last five games from field goal range and that’s just not going to be good enough to cover the spread in this one. 
I believe it helps a bit that Minnesota comes in into this one off a pair of losses. I think that means the Gophers will be a little hungrier to beat up on this Rutgers squad.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on BROOKLYN. There are two main factors I like here in taking the Nets and those are that the Nets catch the Pelicans in a back-to-back spot and Tyreke Evans is expected to miss tonight's game for New Orleans. 
The Pelicans beat up on Milwaukee 114-103 last night and then had to get on a plane and head for New York. The Nets should be the fresher team on Tuesday, especially considering Anthony Davis played over 40 minutes last night in racking up a career high 43 points. 
I think Brooklyn will have a bit of an easier time containing Davis tonight on tired legs but also because Evans likely won't be on the floor. The New Orleans guard scores 16.8 points and dishes 6.5 assists per game and I believe he's one of the most underrated back court players in the league. With him out of the lineup, I don't think things will be so easy for Davis as the Nets zero in on him and I don't believe oddsmakers have adjusted enough. 
Brooklyn currently sits 2 1/2 games outside of playoff contention in the East and these are the games they absolutely have to win if they hope to make the postseason. The Pelicans are a mid-level squad and the Nets have the benefit of home court. 
New Orleans is just 1-5-1 in its last five games at Brooklyn and I think the Pelicans will run into some more trouble tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PORTLAND. I think the Pilots are being slightly underestimated by oddsmakers here in the WCC tournament contest in Las Vegas.  Portland is smaller than just about everybody and it faces a BYU squad that comes in on a seven-game winning streak. But BYU also enters on a one-game against-the-spread losing streak and I think that’s because the Cougars are overvalued heading into this tournament.  BYU comes into Las Vegas a little overconfident after a win over Gonzaga just before the tourney and the Cougs needed some late heroics to pull past inferior Santa Clara in the tournament opener. The Pilots, meanwhile, are coming off possibly their best game of the season.  Portland played some fantastic team basketball and held a very good St. Mary’s squad to just 30.2 percent shooting in a 69-52 thrashing in their tournament opener. The Pilots held the Gaels to just 2-of-16 shooting from 3-point land and four Pilots finished in double figures as they shared the ball around the court for great looks at the hoop.  I think we may be looking at a dangerous Portland team that could storm its way to the finals of this event if it keeps playing like it did Saturday. I especially like the Pilots Monday night when they are getting this many points on a neutral court.  10* Main Event

I am playing on MEMPHIS. In this battle of division leaders I’m going to take the team that’s better on defense and in my opinion is playing on fresher legs.  The Grizzlies own the best scoring defense in the league with just 95.6 points against per game and I love taking a strong defensive team against a team playing on jello legs. That’s how I expect the Bulls to come into this game in what will be their fourth game in five nights in one of their worst stretches of schedule of the season.  It’s not just the number of games in that short stretch, it’s the quality of opponents. Chicago will have faced the Wizards and Pacers on back to back nights followed by the Spurs and Grizzlies on back to back nights by the time it’s over with just one day of rest in between. And the Bulls aren’t exactly the greatest on short rest. They are just 7-10 against the spread this season on zero rest, their worst spot in terms of days rest this campaign.  While the Grizzlies are also playing their sixth game in eight days, I also like the fact the away team has won and covered the spread in the last four meetings between these squads. And I feel the Grizz have more depth and can handle tough stretches of schedule a little bit better.  The addition Jeff Green, who was acquired in a three-team trade in January, is a big reason why. They are 18-7 since he switched squads and 15-6 when he starts.  Green gives the Grizzlies a little more depth down low and in transition and I think it will give the Bulls a look they haven’t seen before or will be able to handle on Monday in this tough spot.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on DETROIT. If the Pistons have any hope of making the playoffs ,Charlotte is a team they can’t afford to lose to and I think they’ll come up with a big effort here at home on Sunday.  The Pistons trail the eighth and final playoffs spot by just four games and they trail the Hornets by 4.5 games. There are six teams fighting for the last couple of spots right now and beating those teams on home court should bring out some desperation in this Detroit squad that has had a roller coaster ride of a season.  I think oddsmakers are underestimating the Pistons here in setting a tiny spread. I feel they’ve been adjusting with a new look in the back court with the addition of Reggie Jackson back there and their transition woes showed up on their recent three-game road trip. The Pistons lost three in a row – albeit they covered in two of those despite getting only a small handful of points – and the thing I like is that it was cold shooting that cost them.  Detroit is still getting great looks at the hoop and plenty of solid chances to score and I think the cold shooting will turn around as soon as the team is back at home on Sunday.  Jackson is averaging 15.8 points and 7.0 assists and is helping to open up the floor through his first six games with his new club. The problem is that he’s shooting just 36.7 percent.  I believe we’ll see things heat up Sunday afternoon. The Pistons hammered Charlotte by 28 points last month in the only meeting of the season and I think the Hornets will struggle again here in a game where I feel oddsmakers are giving us a soft line.  10* NBA Personal Favorite

I am playing on MINNESOTA. I love the Gophers in this early Sunday afternoon contest for a few key reasons and two of them are that it’s Senior Day and that it’s a must-win situation for Minnesota.  Five seniors will play their final home game on Sunday, where the Gophers typically look like a much better team compared to their play on the road (they are 7-7 ATS at home versus 4-8 ATS at home this season). I’m expecting a crowd that will push the decibel levels in a contest that will be featured on the Big Ten Network, especially considering Minnesota will clinch a spot in the Big Ten tournament with a victory here after Northwestern fell to Iowa on Saturday.   This crowd will be especially hungry for the W against a Penn State squad that beat Minnesota in the first meeting of the season back in January. If the Gophers show up, I really don’t anticipating them having much trouble with the Lions. Penn State has chosen the closing stretch to play its worst basketball of the season and the Nits have now lost six in a row and failed to cover in five of those.  Penn State has been a special kind of bad on the road lately too, failing to score even 60 points in any of its last four road outings. I think the Lions will struggle mightily against a Minnesota squad that ranks fourth in the nation in steals per game (9.8) and fifth in turnover margin (5.0) this season.  10* Breakfast Club

I’m playing on the North Carolina Tar Heels as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

The Tar Heels and Blue Devils add another chapter to college basketball’s best rivalry, with North Carolina out to avenge a 92-90 loss to Duke in Durham last month. The Heels are slim favorites in this important matchup, trying to better its spot in the ACC tournament pecking order.

North Carolina dominated the paint in its previous meeting with Duke, scoring 62 points inside and pulling down 17 offensive rebounds. If it wasn’t for a hot shooting night for Duke. especially beyond the arc, UNC would have walked away with the win in Durham.

The Blue Devils won’t have the Cameron Crazies on their side Saturday. Duke is shooting 37.3 percent from beyond the arc on the road, knocking down seven triples per contests. North Carolina has been stellar at defending the deep ball this season, limiting visitors to just 29 percent shooting from distance in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina has a safety net with its offense and doesn’t depend on those long looks to fall. The Tar Heels will impose their physical play on the Blue Devils, pounding away for 40 minutes and picking up plenty of second-chance looks with their athletic forwards cleaning the glass. North Carolina ranks ninth in the country in offensive rebounds at 12.2 per game.

The Tar Heels out for revenge and their ability to snuff out the Blue Devils' 3-point looks are why I’m playing on North Carolina as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

Philadelphia plays host to the Atlanta Hawks, who are coming off a massive win over the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday night. We see major letdown potential from the Hawks in this overnight trip to Philly. And with oddsmakers handing over a truck load of points, this should play out as an easy cover for a Sixers team that has covered in back-to-back games heading into the weekend.

The 76ers fell short against the Utah Jazz Friday, losing 89-83 at home, but did manage to cover the 7.5-point spread. Philadelphia played Atlanta tough in its last meeting, losing 91-85 as a 16-point road underdog and seems to rise to the occasion against the NBA’s elite. It’s coming off solid efforts versus Oklahoma City, Toronto, and even stood toe-to-toe with Golden State last month.

The Hawks have played three straight games against tough opposition and will be looking to catch their breath against the lowly Sixers Saturday. Before the win over Cleveland, Atlanta took down Houston and Miami. The Hawks haven’t been a good bet as big chalk, failing to cover in each of their last four games as double-digit favorites.

The Hawks ripe for a letdown and the Sixers rising to the occasion are why I’m playing on Philadelphia as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Longhorns head into the final Big 12 game of the schedule versus Kansas State, firming resting on the NCAA tournament bubble. Texas is coming off a win against a ranked Baylor squad after missing chances to boost its March resume versus Kansas and West Virginia in the previous two games. Now, this final game could either make or break the Horns’ season.

We expect Texas not to take any chances with a dangerous Kansas State squad and leave it all out on the floor. Making the tournament cut could also be the determining factor whether head coach Rick Barnes keeps his job or not. So there is plenty of added motivation to finish Big 12 play with a bang.

The Wildcats are coming off two huge wins, taking down Kansas and Iowa State - setting up a masisve letdown spot Saturday. Kansas State scored 70 points in each of those respective upsets, getting a big boost from the home crowd in Manhattan. However, now KSU must hit the highway where it's struggled mightily this season.

Kansas State is just 1-7 SU on the road in Big 12 play, covering the spread just once in its last five away from home. The Wildcats, who average only 61.1 points as visitors, are just 3-16 SU in true road games the last two years.

The Longhorns’ added motivation and the Wildcats road woes are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the New Orleans Pelicans as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

The Pelicans host the Boston Celtics, who are playing some of their better basketball of the season. The Celtics have won four of their last six games, losing to Golden State and Cleveland in that span, and that has altered the spread value for this matchup, opening up opportunity to play on the home side Friday.

New Orleans is also tearing through the schedule, losing just once in its last seven games with a 5-2 ATS record in that span. The Pelicans welcomed back star center Anthony Davis back in their last outing, getting 39 points and 13 rebounds and eight blocks from the former Kentucky standout in an 88-85 victory over Detroit.
 
The Celtics have slowed their pace in the second half of the schedule. Boston was pushing the tempo faster than most teams to start the year but has taken on a more methodical offense lately, which plays in New Orleans' halfcourt sets. The Pelicans defense will have time to set up and funnel the Celtics toward Davis.

Boston is terribly thin up front since losing forward Jared Sullinger to injury. The Celtics were unable to sure up the frontcourt before this matchup with the Pelicans, leaving them coming up short against Davis’ two-way talents. Boston has just Tyler Zeller, Jonas Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk in the middle – none of which can keep pace with New Orleans big man.

The Pelicans' hot play and Davis taking on a thin Celtics frontcourt are why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* TNT Main Event Thursday.

The Bulls welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder the United Center Thursday night. Oklahoma City is playing its second game of back-to-back nights, after traveling overnight from home following a matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers Wednesday.

The Thunder could be a little worse for wear in this tough situational spot, getting more than they bargained for against the Sixers. Oklahoma City isn’t playing with a full roster, namely missing star forward Kevin Durant due to a foot injury. It’s depending a lot on Russell Westbrook to pace the offense, and may be running on fumes by the time the Thunder take the court Thursday.

Chicago is also dealing with multiple injuries, losing both Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. However, the Bulls have been here before when it comes to absorbing key losses. They showed their resiliency in a 97-92 victory over the Washington Wizards Tuesday, getting a combined 33 points from the replacement backcourt of Aaron Brooks and Tony Snell.

The Bulls still present one of the best frontcourts in the NBA, headlined by veteran big man Pau Gasol. His finesse inside is complemented by hard-working center Joakim Noah, who is rounding into form after missing a lot of time due to injuries. That ability to grind out offensive sets inside should make a huge difference against an OKC team that has been pushed around in the paint this season.

The Thunder playing the second stop of back-to-backs and the Bulls’ ability to absorb injuries are why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* TNT Main Event Thursday.

I’m playing on the Minnesota Golden Gophers as my 10* ESPN Main Event.

The Golden Gophers play host to the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers Thursday night. Minnesota is coming off a big win over Michigan State, snapping a three-game skid, and looks to build off that victory against another Big Ten powerhouse.

These teams played just two Saturdays ago, with Wisconsin edging Minnesota 63-53 in Madison. The Golden Gophers covered as 15-point road underdogs despite an off night for leading scorer Andre Hollins, who went just 1 for 8 from the field for two points. Minnesota was within one point midway through the first half and cut the lead to eight late in the second before the Badgers shut the door with some big 3-point buckets.

The Gophers were one of just four Big Ten teams that beat the Badgers on the boards, out-rebounding Wisconsin 28-25 including holding it to just five offensive rebounds. Minnesota has picked up its presence on the glass in the last three games and must limit the amount of second-chance looks Wisconsin scoops up Thursday.

Minnesota has had Wisconsin’s number when it comes to covering the spread. The Golden Gophers are an impressive 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Badgers, including a 3-1-1 ATS mark in their last four home stands against Wisconsin.

The Golden Gophers building off their recent win and their ATS success against the Badgers are why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* ESPN Main Event Thursday.

I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.


The Hornets are back home after going 2-2 on a four-game road trip, most recently thumping the Orlando Magic 98-83 Sunday. Outside of an off night versus Boston, Charlotte maintained its defensive prowess during that trip - ranked sixth in defense in the NBA - and will put the locks on a Los Angeles Lakers team opening a three-game road trip in Charlotte Tuesday night.


The Lakers have had some success scoring the basketball in recent games, averaging 105 points over their last five games. However, Los Angeles played four of those games inside the Staples Center and now cross the country for this road stop. The Lakers are scoring only 97.7 points per game on the road and have gone just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away from La-La Land.


Charlotte is fighting to crack the postseason picture and can’t afford to let opportunities like Tuesday’s game slip away. The Hornets have some revenge fueling them in this matchup after losing to Los Angeles 107-92 in L.A. back in November. However, Kobe Bryant was still on the court then and the Lakers were in much better health than they are now.


The Hornets’ dominating defense and the Lakers’ woes away from home are why I’m playing on Charlotte as my Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.


The Scarlet Knights have dropped 12 straight games and don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Rutgers does, however, present some excellent line value hosting the Maryland Terrapins Tuesday night.


The Terps come into this Big Ten battle on a five-game winning streak, including a pair of impressive home victories over Wisconsin and Michigan last week. Maryland is a shoe-in for a ticket to the Big Dance and will likely do some damage in the conference tournament. This could have the Terrapins sitting fat and happy heading to Jersey, where they’re giving a lot of points.


Rutgers covered as a 14-point underdog in a 73-65 loss at Maryland back in January and is coming off a strong effort against Purdue this weekend, falling 92-85 as a 13.5-point pup. The Scarlet Knights throw plenty of size at opponents and boast some versatile talents that can give teams matchup fits. They have the chops to scare some big-name teams, with an outright upset win of Wisconsin earlier this year.


Maryland can do some damage from distance, averaging almost eight 3-pointers per game on 38 percent shooting. Rutgers has checked opponents to just 30.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc at home and without those easy looks from outside, the Terps may not be able to put enough distance between them and the Knights to cover this hefty spread.


The Terrapins ripe for a letdown and the Scarlet Knights tightening up on 3-point shooters are why I’m playing on Rutgers as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

Toronto is officially pushing the panic button after an embarrassing loss to the New York Knicks – the Raptors' fifth straight defeat. Toronto still holds a comfy lead in the Atlantic Division but is just hanging on to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, with Chicago and Cleveland breathing down its neck.

Things couldn’t get much worse for the Raptors right now – that is unless they lay another egg when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers Monday night. We’re banking on a big bounce back for Toronto in this game, feeling the urgency for a win.

Philadelphia will be playing the second night of back-to-back games, traveling back home from Indiana overnight Sunday. The 76ers have a hard enough time stopping teams on rest, let alone on double dips. The Sixers have allowed an average of almost 103 points per game in their last five outings.

Toronto has dominated Philadelphia when it comes to paying out at the window. The Raptors have covered the spread in 21 of their last 32 clashes with the 76ers, including two pushes in that span. Toronto is expected to have all-star point guard Kyle Lowry back in the lineup after he rested in the loss to the Knicks.

The Raptors’ desperation and the Sixers’ defense playing on the second night of back-to-back games are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

The Longhorns’ NCAA tournament window is closing. Texas balked at opportunities to boost its March Madness resume with losses to ranked West Virginia and Kansas last week, and this Monday's matchup with Lone Star State rivals, the Baylor Bears, could be the Horns’ final chance to impress the selection committee.

On top of that motivation to secure an at-large bid before the Big 12 tournament tips, Texas could also be playing for head coach Rick Barnes’ job. There is a strong call for the coach to be fired following a disappointing season in Austin. We expect an all-or-nothing effort from the Longhorns at home Monday night.

Baylor is rolling along, winning four straight contests and seven of its last nine Big 12 games. That stretch includes a one-sided win over Texas, knocking off their state enemy at home 83-60. The Longhorns, who will have revenge on their minds in the rematch, shot just 38.6 percent from the field in that loss, including going 5 for 26 from beyond the arc.

Texas is much better team in front of the home faithful, averaging 71.3 points for and allowing just 57.2 points against inside the Frank Erwin Special Events Center. The Longhorns put together one of their best defensive efforts in the loss to the Jayhawks, blocking a school-record 14 shots and limiting KU to 36 percent shooting – including just 1-for-8 shooting from beyond the arc. Texas can build off that performance in this must-win game Monday.

The Longhorns desperate to build their tournament resume and coming off one of their best defensive effort are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Ohio State Buckeyes as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

The Buckeyes were among the Top 25 programs in the country for a while but a recent skid has dropped them from the national polls and has Ohio State’s NCAA tournament future a little hazy. The Buckeyes still have work to do to avoid having their March Madness bubble burst and can’t afford a poor outing against the Purdue Boilermakers at home Sunday.

Two recent road losses to Michigan State and Michigan, and a road loss to Purdue have Ohio State’s pedigree in questions. The Buckeyes have been able to take care of the weaker Big Ten schools – like their 81-57 blowout of Nebraska last time out – but lack some beef on their resume. This is a revenge spot for OSU, which can erase that 60-58 loss in West Lafayette and give it some momentum heading into the final week of the season and Big Ten tournament.

The Boilermakers throw a lot of size at the Buckeyes, but barely won the battle on the boards in their last game versus Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been strong on the glass in their last three games, limiting opponents to just 7.3 offensive rebounds while collecting an average of 10 offensive boards of their own in that span.

Ohio State has also done a great job of avoiding shot blockers – getting stuffed just 2.6 times per game – and knows it must attack Purdue’s big men and get them in foul trouble to open up this game. The Buckeyes shot just nine free throws in the last meeting with the Boilermakers, but has already seen an uptick in aggressive play, getting to the stripe 22 times in their win over the Cornhuskers.

The Buckeyes solid work on the boards and desperation for a resume win at home are why I’m playing Ohio State as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

I’m playing on the BYU Cougars as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

Brigham Young is one squad no one wants to see make the tournament cut. The Cougars are a live bubble team but lack big-name wins on their NCAA resume. They can fill that gap with a victory over Gonzaga Saturday.

Brigham Young is a lofty road underdog against the projected tournament No. 1, seed but there is serious motivational value with BYU in this do-or-die situation. The Cougars have covered the spread in five straight games while Gonzaga is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven WCC games. The Bulldogs are no longer the mid-major darling and oddsmakers have treated them like an elite program, stacking a pile of points on the line for each of their outings.

The Cougars are the most explosive offensive team in the country, topping the land with 84.4 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting. Brigham Young has two superstars in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth, as well as boasts four players averaging more than 13 points per game on the year. They’re a tough team to key on, with nearly every starter presenting a scoring threat.

BYU runs one of the faster paces in the country, with 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes. The Bulldogs don’t have those same wheels and rely on their loaded frontcourt to do damage inside and open up the wings for open shooters. The Cougars look to put Gonzaga on its heels and beat those big men down the floor. Gonzaga’s lone loss on the season came against Arizona in overtime, with the Wildcats possessing similar scoring depth on their roster.

The Cougars desperate for a resume win and their explosive offense are why I’m playing on BYU as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

Phoenix opens the doors of the US Airways Center to the defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs Saturday. The Spurs traveled overnight from Sacramento where they took on the Kings and their up-tempo attack Friday night. The Suns can catch a road weary – and aging - San Antonio side in a tough spot, especially with the way the Spurs have stumbled on their annual “Rodeo Road Trip”.

Heading into Friday night, San Antonio had dropped the first four games of the Western Conference side of this extended nine-game road swing. The Spurs defense, which has limited foes to just 97.5 points per game (ninth in the NBA), has gone soft. They’ve allowed 107.5 points per game in those four losses and face a well-rested Suns squad coming off a statement win in the conference pecking order.

Phoenix handed Oklahoma City a 117-113 loss in overtime Thursday, getting massive efforts from Eric Bledsoe and Markieff Morris, who scored 28 and 29 points respectively against the Thunder. The Suns are ranked third in the league is scoring, putting up 106.3 points per night, and will overwhelm a tired San Antonio side playing the second of back-to-back nights.

The Suns' offense picking up steam and the Spurs' road woes are why I’m playing on Phoenix as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Aztecs play host to the Boise State Broncos at Viejas Arena Saturday, looking to snuff out Boise State’s NCAA tournament hopes. The Broncos are on the NCAA bubble – the same spot in which they sat last year around this time. Boise State crumbled under the pressure and missed out on the big dance last season and we expect a similar situation on the road against the Mountain West Conference’s top team.

San Diego State has jumped to the top of the conference with a red-hot four-game winning streak, which included wins over programs like Wyoming, Colorado State (two teams on its heels in the standings) and old rival New Mexico. In fact, the Aztecs most recent loss came at the hands of the Broncos, losing 61-46 in Boise in what was SDSU’s worst showing of the season. There is a heated revenge spot here for San Diego State, who won’t be taking BSU lightly.

The Broncos have never defeated SDSU on the road and face an Aztecs defense that doesn’t allow much room when in the role of host. San Diego State is giving up only 47.3 points per home game – lowest in the entire country – and limiting visitors to just 35.6 percent shooting.

The Broncos crumbling under the bubble and the Aztecs out for revenge at home are why I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

Toronto welcomes the Golden State Warriors to the Air Canada Centre – a far cry from the sun and surf of the Bay Area. The Warriors travel overnight from Cleveland after a massive clash with the Cavaliers Thursday and are in a tough letdown spot against a very opportunistic Toronto club.

The Raptors went 1-3 on their latest road trip, losing the final three games of that trek to Dallas, Houston and New Orleans. Toronto is back home and can’t afford to extend this skid to four games. The Raptors are a tough matchup for the Warriors, running a similar guard-heavy offense that can put up points in a hurry. Toronto is averaging almost 105 points per game – fifth in the NBA.

The Raptors fell to Golden State when they visited the Bay Area in early January. The Warriors shot better than 53 percent from the field in that 126-105 beating, while Toronto coughed the ball up 17 times. Don’t expect a repeat with this non-conference series swinging north of the border. The Raptors boast the eight fewest turnovers at home (13.5) and limit opponents to just 96.9 points per home game – a drastic drop from the 104 points against per game on the road.

Toronto has been beaten up in the fourth quarter during this three-game skid and recognizes it must close out teams in order to snap this funk. The Raptors, who have allowed more than 29 points per fourth quarter in those three losses, will look to take advantage of a Golden State side feeling the effects of the road on the second half of back-to-back nights in the final frame.

The Warriors primed for a letdown and the Raptors hungry for a home win are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

The Pacers play host the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are coming off a massive showdown with the Golden State Warriors Thursday. Cleveland is having to hop a plane and take the court for the second night of back-to-back outings after facing the Warriors' fast and furious pace.

There is tremendous value go to against Cleveland, which is ripe for a letdown. On top of that, Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season, picking up victories in seven of its last 10 games and boasting a 7-3 mark against the spread. A big-name opponent like the Cavs come to town only pumps up the Pacers home line even more, which we’ll gladly take advantage of.

Indiana has seen a spike in scoring during this hot streak, averaging 103 points per game this month - a massive uptick from the Pacers’ season scoring average of just 96.1 points per game. They’ve already knocked off Cleveland this month, serving LeBron & Co. a 103-99 defeat in Ohio on February 3.

On top of that offensive surge, Indiana remains one of the better defensive clubs in the NBA, giving up just under 98 points per game during that 10-game span. The Pacers are even stingier at home, allowing only 96.4 points on 43.4 percent shooting – a big reason why Indiana has covered in four straight home stands and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games versus the Cavaliers inside Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

The Cavaliers ripe for a letdown and the Pacers picking it up on both ends of the floor are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns could definitely use some wins to help their fans and bettors forget about having to trade away Goran Dragic. I think one of those wins will come against the Thunder Thursday night.  The Suns have been scoring lately, which hasn't slowed since Brandon Knight joined the team over the weekend from Milwaukee. Phoenix has scored 227 points in the two games since Knight came to town and the Suns are averaging 111 over their last four games.  Unfortunately, that hasn't resulted in wins in any of those games but I don't feel the Thunder will be able to keep up with that kind of pace - not without Kevin Durant, anyway. Durant has missed the last three games with a foot injury and is out indefinitely.  Although the Thunder won and covered all three of those games, they were against the Denvers, Charlottes and Indianas of the world. Phoenix isn't the No. 1 team in the NBA, but the Suns are better than those squads and they are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA.  Knight becomes the third former Kentucky player on the Suns roster to go along with Eric Bledsoe and Archie Goodwin. I think he'll be good for chemistry once this team finds some on the court and the Suns have a great starting backcourt with Bledsoe and Knight.  I feel this is too many points for the Durant-less Thunder to have to give away on the road, especially against a somewhat desperate Suns team that is going to get more comfortable every game with its new teammates. 10* TNT Main Event

I am playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols may look like a weakening team with three straight losses coming into this game, but I think you have to look at the competition they've faced and realize this is a great spot to play on them.  The Vols lost to three of the top five teams in the SEC heading into this matchup and now they face the so-so Vols, who are just 5-9 in conference play this season. I think they'll bounce back against their state rivals on home court and will be fully revitalized after the tough stretch of schedule.  Tennessee is playing its first weekday SEC game on a Thursday this season. Every other weekday game has been on a Tuesday or Wednesday for them in conference play and coach Donnie Tyndall took full advantage by giving his team two full days off before returning to practice on Tuesday.  The Vols needed the rest and returned to have a great practice on Tuesday and I expect them to come back and sweep the season series with Vandy. Tennessee won the first meeting 76-73 in OT, which was actually the Vols' last win.  Four players finished in double figures for the Vols and Josh Richardson annihilated Vandy with 27 points. I think we'll see a similar story again on Thursday from a fully recharged Vols squad. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on the BUCKS. I think Milwaukee finally covers its first spread as a new-look team since shipping out leading scorer Brandon Knight three games ago.

Nevermind the fact the Sixers have the most road losses in the NBA with 24 this season. Or the fact the Bucks have won and covered the last four meetings with them.

Those are nice-to-haves but the Bucks are starting to find a little more comfort with their new teammates and a big reason I like Milwaukee to win handily against the Sixers is turnovers. The Bucks have been shooting themselves in the foot lately with bad turnovers, including 24 against the Hawks two games ago.

Why that could be a positive here is that I don’t think Milwaukee will be as penalized by any turnovers it makes Wednesday night against the Sixers because the Sixers cough the ball up more than anyone in the NBA at an average of 18.5 times per game. 

The Bucks may even get a chance to show off new point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who is expected to play after missing his first three games with his new team with a toe injury. Carter-Williams is a big, do-everything kind of point guard and I think he can get this Bucks offense rolling again after they failed to reach 90 points in any of the three games since they traded Knight.

Milwaukee has only lost three games in a row once this season, which was in early December. I don’t anticipate that pattern repeating itself Wednesday against a Sixers team that has lost its last 10 road outings. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on the ROCKETS. Houston has won its last two games by an average of 16.5 points, taking their backers to the ticket window to collect both times. I like them to continue their moneymaking efforts in a revenge situation at home against the Clippers tonight.  The Clippers have won and covered in six straight meetings against Houston which includes two meetings this season. League-leading scorer, James Harden, had a combined 25 points in those two games in what were two of his worst shooting performances of the season and I think we’ll see him a little extra motivated to correct that tonight.  Harden is a wrecking ball right now and has been a triple-double threat in just about every game he's played lately. He picked up his second triple double of the season against the Timberwolves last game with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. I think he’ll have an absolutely huge game against the Clippers tonight and lead Houston to the win and cover.  The Rockets are on fire at home where they've covered six of their last seven games and have covered their last four against the spread there against winning road teams.  Houston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can keep pace with the Clippers, with both teams ranking in the top five in the league in scoring. The Rockets love to rain 3-pointers with an NBA record 40 games with at least 30 3-point attempts this season. The Clippers don't exactly defend the three-ball well, allowing opponents to shoot 34.4 percent from downtown this season and 36.2 percent on the road. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on the KNICKS. The Knicks may have lost seven games in a row but they are right where they want to be on Wednesday: anywhere but MSG.

When you look at the numbers, New York is actually a better team on the road than at home and it's not much wonder. It can wear on a team, taking the abuse from fans, media - and oh yeah, Phil Jackson - while they stink up the Big Apple.  

Jackson was taking rips on Twitter about his team after it got humiliated on home court by the Cavs. The Zen Master said the Knicks were giving the basketball gods heartburn after losing by 18.

Well, New York can thank the basketball gods for road games. The Knicks are just 3-23 straight up on the road this season but are 12-12-2 against the spread. Compare that to 9-19 against the number at home and you can see the difference in value here.

As odd as it is, the Knicks shoot better on the road from 2-point range, 3-point range and on free throws than they do overall this season. Boston, meanwhile, is just 13-14 ATS at home and 17-10 ATS on the road. The Celtics apparently don't like playing at home any more than the Knicks do.

I think we'll see a big response from New York Wednesday night if the team has any pride left at all. The road team has actually won both meetings this year between these two squads and the Celtics have sloppily allowed at least 109 points in each of their last three games. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on UCONN. I feel the Huskies are getting a great number from oddsmakers here and it's because UConn has lost and failed to cover in six of its last seven games on the road. 

Why that makes this a great spot is because the two most recent road losses came against good teams in two of the toughest places to pull off a road win in college hoops right now - Memphis and SMU. They were tough losses and the truth is that the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season right now with four wins in their last six games overall.

Six-foot-seven shooting guard Daniel Hamilton is playing his best and most consistent basketball of the season and was very close to pulling off triple-doubles in each of his last two games. UConn is giving him the ball more on offense because he can shoot from anywhere but also loves to dish and rebound. It's opened up the floor and I feel the Huskies are playing their best team ball of the year.

UConn isn't a great bet this year overall at 8-15 against the spread but another reason I like this play is most bettors don't realize the Huskies are a much better bet on the road than at home. They are just 2-7 against the spread at home and 6-8 ATS on the road. 

It may not sound like much, but I think the way the Huskies are playing right now they are just a much better team than ECU and oddsmakers are giving them a generously small number to cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the West Virginia Mountaineers as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

West Virginia has a ton of momentum heading into the home stretch of the Big 12 schedule, taking a win over Kansas and, most recently, grabbing a huge road victory over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The Mountaineers can continue to puff up their NCAA resume and gain ground before the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tuesday.

The Mountaineers won’t be looking past the Longhorns after those impressive victories. Texas has a victory over WVU already this season, smashing West Virginia 77-50 in Austin back on January 17 – the Horns' lone win over a Top 50 RPI team. This is a big revenge spot for the Mountaineers, especially with a coach like Bob Huggins who will use everything he can to fuel his players’ fire.

West Virginia shot a dismal 24 percent from the field in that loss to Texas, including a 6-for-20 performance from beyond the arc. It was an ugly game for both programs, with a total of 36 turnovers. Needless to say, WVU will have a much sharper game at home where it averages 76.4 points per game.

The Mountaineers will look to overwhelm the Horns’ bigger lineup with their frantic pace that averages 72.2 possessions per game. West Virginia will beat the Texas 2-3 zone back before it can set up and press on defense, getting in the face of the Texas backcourt. The Longhorns depend on the size up front to keep them in games but WVU’s quickness in transition will erase that edge.

The Mountaineers out for revenge and ready to run the Longhorns out of the gym are why I’m playing on West Virginia as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns love beating up on the Celtics at any time but I especially like them here where they catch the C's on back-to-back nights after Boston went to OT with the Lakers last night. 

Phoenix has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings with the Celtics and I am thinking the Suns face the Celtics on some tired legs tonight. Boston's top six players played at least 30 minutes last night and four of those players played at least 35 minutes. Boston lost 118-111 and played some terrible defense, allowing the Lakers to shoot 51.2% from the field and 38.9% from long range. 

That's two straight games where Boston has lost and failed to cover in games where both teams scored more than 100 points, which is exactly where I expect Phoenix to try to push Boston Monday night. 

Phoenix has shot at least 50 percent from the floor in 18 games this season, which ranks second in the NBA. The Suns are also the third highest scoring team in the NBA with 106 points per game and I think we’ll see them push the pace tonight. Brandon Knight makes his second appearance at point guard for Phoenix and I feel he could be a fantastic addition in the desert. 

Knight is shooting 40.9 percent from 3-point range this season, which is an added threat that should help spread the floor for Phoenix and I believe will help them score even more. Knight doesn't mind leading the fast break either with 5.4 assists per game and is a steal machine who can score in transition. 

I expect Knight to see more minutes tonight against Boston than the 24 he saw in his debut for the Suns and I think he'll spark them to a much needed win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on ST. JOHN'S. I like the Johnnies to claim their second win in nine days against the Musketeers on home court at MSG in a big TV game on FOX Sports 1.

Xavier coach Chris Mack called the Red Storm "the most athletic team" in the Big East and he might just be right. St. John's has four players who average at least 13 points per game and D'Angelo Harrison is one of the most athletic in the league.

Harrison averages 18.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and can shoot from everywhere, not to mention can play some defense too. Harrison scored 18 against the Musketeers in the last meeting (which is Xavier's only loss in its last five games) but the Johnnies' Sir'Dominic Painter provided even bigger problems.

Painter racked up 24 points on 9-of-10 field goal shooting and was a beast on defense with four steals and two blocks.

Xavier struggled with that inside-outside threat from St. John's and also the depth problem. Xavier likes to be able to beat teams with its own depth where scoring is balanced and seven players average at least six points. Against most squads in the Big East, that's a tough challenge to overcome over the course of a full game, but not so much for St. John's.

The Red Storm have won four of their last five games and are starting to round into their best form of the season as tournament time draws near. I don't think oddsmakers set this tiny spread high enough, especially on home court where St. John's tends to play tougher defense. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Connecticut Huskies as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

The Huskies are desperate for a win after dropping back-to-back road games to Memphis and Southern Methodist. Connecticut will take that frustration out on Tulane Sunday, matching up with a Green Wave program that has just one victory in its last seven outings, including a 62-53 loss to UConn at home on February 7.

Tulane stunned Cincinnati last weekend then promptly suffered a letdown against Central Florida this week, falling 69-55 as a 7-point home favorite. The Green Wave don’t pack much of a scoring punch, averaging just 64.8 points per game on the season and consistently playing below that bar during conference play, being held to 55 points or less in seven straight contests.

The Huskies aren’t the most explosive team on offense either but do have the horses to run up the score, especially with the way Daniel Hamilton is emerging as a scoring threat. The UConn freshman had 25 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in the loss to Memphis. Hamilton - a 6-foot-7 guard - is a tough matchup for even a good defense and should give Tulane fits as he blossoms into an elite talent.

Storrs is always a tough place to play – regardless of how good or bad UConn is. The Huskies will have a decisive home-court edge, allowing only 55.4 points per home game (almost 10 points fewer than on the road) and forcing foes to shoot just 36.8 percent in those games.

The Huskies hungry for a win at home and the Green Wave’s miserable offensive outings are why I’m playing on Connecticut as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Milwaukee Bucks as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

The wheels are coming off the Atlanta Hawks' red-hot run, with the NBA All-Star break disrupting the team’s momentum into the second half of the season. Atlanta fell 89-88 to the Boston Celtics before the break and was thumped by the Toronto Raptors, 105-80, in its first game back Friday night. The Hawks have come back to earth and there is value to be had fading the Eastern Conference’s top team.

The Milwaukee Bucks are the perfect team to kick Atlanta when it’s down. The Bucks have won four straight contests – picking up where they left off with a victory against Denver Friday – and are an impressive 9-1 in their last 10 overall. Milwaukee’s brand of smothering defense will attack the Hawks' offensive issues and avenge a 90-85 loss to Atlanta in their most recent tangle on Dec. 27. The Bucks beat the Hawks the day before that loss in the opening game of a home-and-home set.

The Bucks are giving up just under 97 points per game on the year – ranked third in the NBA – and have limited opponents to just 42.4 percent shooting at home, including a 33.3 percent clip from beyond the arc. That comes in handy against a 3-point-dependent Hawks offense that can’t seem to find its stroke from outside.

Atlanta is just 15 for 67 from outside in the last two games – 22.3 percent shooting for a team that sits second in the league from distance (38.5 percent) and knocks down 9.9 3-pointers a night.

The Hawks’ ice-cold shooting and the Bucks’ defense taking advantage of a reeling Eastern rival are why I’m playing on Milwaukee as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the St. Mary’s Gaels as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Gaels welcome the rival Gonzaga Bulldogs to McKeon Pavilion in Moraga for a game that is always circled for the Gaels. These clashes with Gonzaga often dictate the pecking order in the West Coast Conference and can be the difference between making the cut and getting snubbed on Selection Sunday for St. Mary’s. There is no bigger game than hosting the Zags for SMC.

The Gaels have plenty to prove Saturday after getting rolled by the Bulldogs in their first meeting of the season. St. Mary’s was trumped 68-47, shooting a dismal 36 percent from the field, including a 2-for-15 performance from beyond the arc. We expect a much different outcome from the Gaels this time around, averaging nearly 11 points more at home than compared to the road.

Gonzaga has wobbled at bit at the top of the WCC and has covered just once in its last five conference games. The Bulldogs are on track for a No. 1 seed in the tournament - if they can avoid a conference loss – and the market is not giving the Zags any wiggle room when it comes to their nightly spreads. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six conference road stops while the Gaels have covered in seven of their last eight WCC contests.

The Gaels' big-game motivation and the Bulldogs’ troubles covering on the road are why I’m playing on St. Mary’s as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Houston Rockets as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Rockets are back home looking to rebound from a flat outing against the Dallas Mavericks in their first game back from the All-Star break. Houston opens the doors of the Toyota Center to the Toronto Raptors, who are ripe for a letdown spot after clashing with the Atlanta Hawks Friday night. Toronto blasted the NBA’s top team 105-80 and now travels overnight to Texas for this non-conference clash.

The Raptors rolled Atlanta, checking the Hawks for just 33 percent shooting including an 8-for-38 night beyond the arc. Toronto had the hot hand from outside in that win, knocking down 13 of its 30 shots from downtown. But the Raptors will be playing with fire if they want to get into a shootout with the Rockets' sharp shooters.

Heading into Friday’s game, Houston topped the NBA in 3-pointers made – 11.8 per game – and percentage of points from 3-pointers (34.3 percent). The Rockets have a much more perimeter orientated offense with Dwight Howard on the shelf until March, and aren’t afraid to get into a 3-point war with opponents.

On the defensive side, the Raptors are a favorable matchup for the Rockets at this point. Toronto doesn’t present a dominant big man like most Western Conference foes, and not having Howard down low isn’t as exposed as it would be against a conference rival. The Rockets have a bevy of solid on-the-ball defenders – Patrick Beverly, Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer – and will challenge the Raptors’ drive-and-dish offense.

The Rockets' ability to knock down the 3-pointer and defend the ball and the Raptors ripe for a letdown are why I’m playing on Houston as my 10* Personal Favorite.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Longhorns host the Iowa State Cyclones in a Big 12 battle to cap off Rivalry Week. Texas is eager to get back on the court and erase a bad loss at Oklahoma earlier this week, allowing the Sooners to put up 71 points on the Horns’ 20th-ranked defense. We expect a rededication to stopping the basketball from Rick Barnes’ kids Saturday.

Iowa State finally picked up a conference road win with a challenging victory in Stillwater over the Oklahoma State Cowboys this week. The Cyclones, however, are a much different squad when they hit the highway, averaging just 61.8 points as visitors. That’s a big drop off in production compared to ISU’s scoring average of 73.5 points per game at home. Texas’ tight defense will look to exploit that inability to produce in enemy territory.

The Longhorns aren’t lost on how a win over Iowa State would look on their NCAA resume. Texas can drastically improve its seeding in the national tournament and send a statement through the Big 12 with a victory at home Saturday.

The Horns have seen an improvement on offense in recent games and played one of their best scoring contests in an 89-86 loss in Ames on January 26. They’re generating more scoring chances through their playbook, rather than relying on their dominance on the boards and second-chance looks. Iowa State is one of the softer defenses in the Big 12 and can find itself lost if unable to simply overwhelm opponents with offense.

The Cyclones' issues away from home and the Longhorns’ defense ready to rebound are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. I think Los Angeles is a team that will benefit from the All-Star break and come out strong at home against a Spurs team that sits just a half-game behind the Clippers in the playoff standings.

Some may not think a 35-19 team needs a break, but the Clips have had an up and down season where many feel they haven't come close to reaching their full potential yet.

I think we'll see a rejuvenated squad that had a chance to focus on defensive woes this week in practice and had a chance to escape the spotlight that has burned brightly from the critics to this point. I believe we'll see them topple a Spurs team that has to trek to the road again after the break in the midst of their annual rodeo road trip.

The Clippers were just starting to adjust to life without Blake Griffin before the break, who won't return until at least March after elbow surgery from a staph infection. L.A. lost its first three games without Griffin but won and covered the next two just before the break, thanks to some better defensive play and DeAndre Jordan.

The Clippers held two straight foes to under 100 points for a change and Jordan piled up 46 points and 47 rebounds in the two games. He now has three 20-20 performances in the last six contests.

I think Jordan provides some problems for the Spurs, who will obviously have to key on him. If he can't score down low, there should be some openings on the perimeter, which has been a sore spot for San Antonio lately.

The Spurs are allowing opponents to shoot 39.1 percent from 3-point land over their past five games and I think that could be a big mismatch opportunity for the Clippers. It's also nice to know the Spurs are 0-4 ATS their last four against teams with a .600 or better record at home.

I am playing on MEMPHIS. These two teams are tied for fifth in the AAC and the top five teams get a bye in the conference tournament, so this game may have a little added intensity to it.

I love that Memphis is at home at the FedEx Forum, which could be the biggest crowd UConn has played in front of all season. That's not exactly what the Huskies need right now because the road hasn't been kind to them, where they've failed to cover in four of their last five tries. Some were questioning whether the crowd got to them Saturday night in Dallas at SMU, where UConn got waxed 73-55 and seemed to soften up as the game went on.

The news gets better for this play because the Tigers are actually the best home team in college hoops since 2004-05 with 188 wins and just 25 losses. Memphis is 7-5 against the number at home this year compared to 3-7 on the road and pretty much all the numbers that matter are better for Memphis at home compared to overall this season.

For whatever it's worth, the Tigers are also 4-0 at home against defending national champions, which most recently includes a win over Louisville last year, who won the championship in 2013.

Memphis might have the player with the hottest hand on Thursday also with Shaq Goodwin. Goodwin is averaging 13.8 points and 12.8 boards over his last four games. He's picking up the slack for team leading scorer Austin Nchols, who is out with a sprained ankle.

Nichols is questionable Thursday night but if he does end up playing, I love Memphis even more here. If he doesn't play, I still like the Tigers on home court against a UConn squad that has been a little timid on the road lately. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. I think we will see a very inspired, very desperate Colonials squad Wednesday night that will give Davidson one of its best efforts of the season.

George Washington badly needs some decent wins in order to boost its NCAA tournament chances, but it can also climb its way up the A 10 standings with a strong finish. A win over Davidson would be a great start as Davidson sits just one game above GW in the conference and the Colonials, despite being in sixth place, sit just two games out of first.

I think George Washington will bounce back with some grit and intensity after having a 12-game home winning streak snapped over the weekend against VCU. I believe the Colonials' tough defense will prevail against a high flying Davidson team that has a tendency to try to simply out-score opponents and as a result can get soft on defense.

GW ranks second in the conference in 2-point percentage defense and allows just 62.8 points at home. I expect Patricio Garino to have a big game as one of just two players in the A 10 who ranks in the top 20 in the league in scoring, rebounding, steals, field goal shooting and free throw percentage.

A sloppy free-throw percentage is something that has hurt the Colonials in recent games but I think those types of issues are easy ones to clean up in practice and I expect to see improvement there Wednesday night.

Davidson has allowed at least 69 points in its last four road games and I think they'll struggle against a GW squad that will grind this game down to a slower pace. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the New Mexico Lobos as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

New Mexico holds home court against the No. 25 San Diego State Aztecs, trying to snap a four-game losing skid Tuesday night. The Lobos’ losing ways have puffed this line up and given solid value to a tough home team hungry for a victory.

Three of those last four losses have come away from The Pit, one of the most notorious venues in college basketball. The Lobos are a different team at home, especially when it comes to defending the basketball. They’re giving up just 55.5 points per game as hosts – compared to 62.2 on the road – and limiting opponents to 36.6 percent shooting in those home stands.

San Diego State could be ripe for a letdown in this game. The Aztecs toppled Wyoming and Colorado State, two teams chasing them in the MWC standings last week. They’re just 2-6 ATS away from home and haven’t been able to find the same defensive edge when taking the role of the visitors. San Diego State limits foes to a mere 47.3 points per home game but has watched the number balloon to 62.2 point on the road.

This is a very prideful New Mexico program that wants to prove it is still one of the gatekeepers in the Mountain West Conference. With the Lobos likely not making the NCAA cut, spoiling the party for the Aztecs is plenty of motivation for Craig Neal and his kids.

The Lobos' toughness at home and the Aztecs' defensive troubles on the road are why I’m playing on New Mexico as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Georgetown Hoyas as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

The Hoyas look to lay some lumber on the St. John’s Red Storm at home, leaning on their size and physical play in the paint – on offense and defense – Tuesday night. Georgetown is a tall task for the Johnnies, exploiting some size mismatches with its methodical Princeton offense.

The Hoyas can put the breaks on an up-tempo athletic Red Storm squad, which doesn’t have the same height among its key contributors. St. John’s tallest players hardly see the floor, outside of 6-foot-10 center Chris Obekpa, and the Red Storm don’t have the depth to try and match the Hoyas’ big men.

St. John’s only runs about eight deep into the rotation while Georgetown’s phenomenal freshmen have allowed John Thompson III to go way down his bench and throw multiple looks at opponents. The Hoyas have seven players scoring 5.5 points or more and nine players picking up over 13 minutes of playing time per game.

The Hoyas aren’t giving away an easy looks on defense, especially inside the key. They average almost five blocks per game and have some sizable defenders on the perimeter. Georgetown is holding opponents to 38.3 percent shooting for 62.3 points per home game, and faces a Johnnies team that relies on turning the game into a track meet.

St. John’s won’t find that pace in the Verizon Center. St. John’s may have won three straight games – averaging almost 83 points in that span – but those wins came against some bottom-tier Big East foes.

The Hoyas’ size and depth and the Red Storm’s smaller, shorter rotation are why I’m playing on Georgetown as my 10*Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Virginia Cavaliers as my 10* Main Event Monday.

The Cavaliers are trying to hold on to their spot atop the ACC and had a scare in their last outing versus Wake Forest. Virginia escaped with a one-point victory over the Demon Deacons Saturday, which should serve as a wake-up call for Tony Bennett’s kids heading into this matchup the with the Pittsburgh Panthers Monday.

The Cavaliers defense was coming off two very impressive performances, holding both NC State and Louisville to 47 points, before the near loss to Wake Forest. Virginia is still the top ranked defense in the country, allowing only 50.9 points per game, however it watched Wake Forest knocked down 10 of 24 looks from beyond the arc this past weekend.

Pitt depends on its offense to put distance between opponents. The Panthers are coming off an 89-point effort in a win over North Carolina and are averaging 75.2 points per game in their last five outings. The Panthers have enjoyed four wins in those five games with that lone blemish coming at Louisville. Pitt is just 1-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS away from home, watching its offensive production dip to 64.1 points per game in those situations.

The Cavaliers looking to return to form on defense and the Panthers’ road woes are why I’m playing on Virginia as my 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Quinnipiac Bobcats as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

Quinnipiac plays host to the MAAC-leading Iona Gaels, who find themselves in a tough stretch of schedule Sunday. The Gaels are playing their third straight road game which so happens to be their third game in five days. We’re getting great value with the Bobcats program riding a three-game winning streak into this massive home stand.

Quinnipiac played Iona tough in their first meeting, losing 81-73 and covering as a 9.5-point road underdog in New Rochelle, and have revenge on their minds heading into the weekend. The Bobcats are playing much stiffer on defense since that first encounter, giving up just 60 points per game over that three-game win streak and locking opponents to just 37 percent shooting.

The Gaels lean on their high-octane offense to overwhelm opponents. However, with this being their third game in five days – and all of those contests coming in enemy territory – Iona may not have the same pop on offense. The Gaels scored 72 and 70 points in the first two road games, well below their season scoring average of 81.9 points per game.

The Bobcats riding momentum into this revenge spot at home and the Gaels running on fumes during this tough road stretch are why I’m playing on Quinnipiac as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Mississippi Rebels as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

Ole Miss could be the hottest team in the country, reeling off six straight wins including a thrilling victory over the Florida Gators in Gainesville Thursday. The Rebels are outscoring opponents by 7.5 points in that span, and have covered the spread in all but one of those contests.

Ole Miss would usually fit the mold of a letdown team following that win in Florida, however, the SEC won’t let the Rebels take it easy, welcoming a ranked Arkansas team to Oxford Saturday night. Mississippi continues to hold solid betting value and we’re expecting another strong performance from Andy Kennedy’s kids.

The Rebels play a tough physical game and like to push the tempo, leaning on a deep rotation to keep the offense from suffering a letdown. Not one player logs more than 29 minutes a game and Ole Miss boasts 10 players enjoying at least 10 minutes of court time. Mississippi has one of the most explosive backcourts in the country, with Stefan Moody, Jarvis Summers, and LaDarius White combining for more than 40 points per game.

Arkansas has earned its national ranking, winning three in a row and six of its last seven outings. The Razorbacks can also put the points on the board, topping the SEC with an average of 80.2 points per game. However, the Hogs have been exposed on defense against stronger scoring teams, like Ole Miss. The Rebels knocked off Arkansas 96-82 in Fayetteville back in January, shooting better than 56 percent from the field.

The Rebels’ momentum and deep scoring attack as well as the Razorbacks’ defensive weakness are why I’m playing on Mississippi as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on VALPARAISO. There is a reason Valpo is tops in the Horizon League and it is the Crusaders’ amazing depth.

Three players average double figures per game and five more average at least five points per game, while all eight of those players average at least 2.2 rebounds. Valpo just keeps coming at you for 40 minutes until you can’t keep up any more – especially when it’s a low spread like the one we’re seeing Friday night.

The Crusaders are 5-1 against the spread this season when the number is set at 4.5 or lower in their games, whether as a dog or a favorite. They are coming off an impressive performance against Oakland where six players finished in double figures, though they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites.

Big spreads have really been the biggest problem for Valpo. The team has won nine of its last 10 games but only covered six of those spreads because numbers started getting more inflated the more the wins kept coming. I think we’ll see a cover here Friday night with a spread that opened at a small number that’s a little more comfortable.

The Crusaders can also play some D where they rank 51st nationally in scoring defense and 19th in field goal percentage defense. They’re also 11-1 straight up on home court and 6-2 against the spread against winning teams and I have a feeling they’ll put on a big performance for this nationally televised game on ESPN2. 10* Main Event

I am playing on CHICAGO. I think the Bulls catch the Cavs in a prime letdown spot here that is way too good to pass up making a play on.

The Cavs host LeBron's old team, Miami, Wednesday night and I fully expect all of Cleveland's energy and focus to be poured into that game as far as their week's schedule goes. The Heat beat the Cavs in their first meeting of the season and that sent Cleveland into a 2-10 train wreck of a losing skid and you know James has been salivating to face them again - especially considering the Cavs are red hot right now after winning 13 of their last 14 heading into Wednesday's game.

I think Cleveland's mind will still be on the night before by the time they roll into Chicago on Thursday and if it's not on that, it will be on the All-Star break ahead. Kyrie Irving and LeBron are set to jettison off to New York for the game while the rest of the team has visions of some down time.

I believe that adds up to a perfect spot for the Bulls, who will be at home and are likely looking for a little payback against the Cavs. They lost and failed to cover in both meetings with Cleveland this year and I expect them to give a big effort here in what is the only NBA game on the slate for the evening.

Chicago has a tendency to play to the level of its competition this season too, and I like the fact the Bulls are 5-1 against the spread against the last six winning teams they've faced. 10* Main Event

I am playing on UCONN. The Huskies have won four straight home games and if you're wondering why they managed to cover only one of those contests, it's simply because oddsmakers slapped them with too much chalk.

UConn failed to cover loaded spreads of 14, 14 and 16.5 in their three most recent home wins and I like the fact they have a small number to contend with Thursday night. While it's true they are playing one of the two best teams in the conference, UConn's overall numbers matchup almost identically when it comes to shooting and defending shots, but the Huskies hold a clear edge at home.

UConn turns into a bit of a defensive powerhouse in Hartford, where the Huskies are holding opponents to just 56.4 points per game and 37.3 percent field goal shooting. The Huskies didn't allow more than 60 points in any of those four recent home wins and they've allowed just 53 and 52 points in their last two games, both wins.

I think we'll see a much different Huskies team Thursday than what we saw against Tulsa in the first meeting of the season in January when the Hurrican won 66-58 as 1-point dogs.

UConn guard Ryan Boatright said "we played a horrible game" this week in reference to Tulsa and I think this team is motivated for revenge. It will help that Boatright, the Huskies' leading scorer, is scorching hot right now and is averaging 23.3 points over his last six games. 10* Main Event

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. The Aztecs are coming off their worst loss in three seasons and 107 games ago after getting pummeled by 15 points at Boise State on Sunday.

Some would say that's a reason to fade the Aztecs but seeing as how San Diego State is back at home and playing the team with whom they are tied atop the Mountain West Conference, I think that loss will be a huge motivator and a key factor in helping them cover on Wednesday.

The Aztecs were simply flat and couldn't find their shot against Boise State - maybe because they were peeking ahead to Wednesday's game. Now I believe they'll be much more honed in and will show off their stifling defense, which ranks third in the country in points against per game (53.8).

San Diego State also ranks 15th in the country in field-goal percentage defense and the scary part for opponents is that the Aztecs get even more suffocating at home. The under has cashed in all seven San Diego State home games that featured a posted total and it’s no wonder. The Aztecs allow just 46.5 points at home while holding opponents to 35.2 percent shooting on 2-pointers and 25.1 percent shooting on 3-pointers. Wow.

It won't help Wyoming's cause that its top scorer, forward Larry Nance Jr., was diagnosed with mono a few days ago. He's listed as day-to-day and even if he does play, who knows how much energy he'll have. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I think we are watching the Thunder start to come into their own finally this season and they catch Memphis at a good time on Wednesday at home.

The Thunder have won four of their last five games and have covered three of their last four outings, including two straight wins in which they piled up a combined 255 points while covering those spreads by 20 points put together.

They'll play a Memphis squad whom they'd like to get a little revenge against after going 0-2 against the Grizzlies this season and Memphis could be in a bit of a letdown spot after handling the NBA's best team, Atlanta, last game.

I think the Grizzlies are in for a bit of a rude awakening against a sizzling hot Kevin Durant, who hasn't been held to fewer than 27 points in his last three games and he scored 40 last game against Denver. Durant also showed some signs of nastiness and looked like a guy who wants to lead his team into the playoffs. He got a technical foul for knocking Kenneth Faried to the floor and has been more verbal in games and on the bench.

Russell Westbrook is even hotter than Durant right now and when those two guys are on fire, it's hard not to love a play on OKC. Westbrook has been a triple double threat in each of his past six games and has scored at least 40 points in three of his last seven.

Those are scary numbers if you're Memphis and it gets even better. OKC is 8-4 against the spread at home against winning teams, which is by far the team's best ATS spot this season. The Thunder are also 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Personal Favorite