I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers. Los Angeles is try to erase a bad loss to Golden State when the Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday. Los Angeles has stumbled to open the schedule and head coach Doc Rivers ripped into this players, hoping to light a fire for this game.

The Clippers have been terribly inconsistent to start the year, following wins with losses in their last four contests. Los Angeles’ defense isn’t where it needs to be, allowing more than 104 points per game, but Saturday offers a chance to make a statement against a hungry team trying to leapfrog L.A. in the Western Conference.

Portland is coming off two straight wins over Cleveland and Dallas, and is bound for a letdown on the road Saturday. The Blazers offense depends a lot on PG Damian Lillard to create chances, and when he struggles so does Portland. Los Angeles will throw a lot of bodies at Lillard Saturday, using Chris Paul, Jordan Farmar and Chris Douglas-Roberts to disrupt his night.

The Clippers frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan match up well with Blazers versatile big man LaMarcus Aldridge and have the athletic ability to stay with him inside and out. Aldridge put up just 16 and 20 points in the past two games and will have limited looks Saturday.

The Clippers getting a wake-up call and bad matchups for the Blazers is why I’m playing on Los Angeles. 10* 

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday. The Blazers are coming off a statement win over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home and now try to make waves in their own conference with a victory over the Dallas Mavericks in the Rose Garden Thursday night.

Portland did a great job defensively against the Cavaliers, limiting Cleveland to 82 points on 36.5 percent shooting. The most impressive performance was the effort put in by Wesley Matthews, who checked LeBron James to 4-of-12 shooting and only 11 points. The Trail Blazers' hard-nosed defense faces a Dallas offense that ranks No. 1 in the league after just four games – averaging 111.8 points a night.

The Mavericks are opening a tough stretch of schedule that has them in action three of the next four nights. Dallas’ defense hasn’t been the tightest to open the year, giving up 105 points per game so far and allowing basement teams like Boston and Utah to hang over 100 points on them in the first four contests.

Portland has plenty of firepower as well. It boasts one of the best inside-out combos in Damian Lillard, who woke up from his scoring slumber with 27 points versus the Cavs, and forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a tough matchups for the Mavericks on both ends of the floor. The Blazers’ production will see a major increase with Lillard back on track after he misfired in the first three games of the year.

A dreadful Dallas defense and a Blazers team rounding into form is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday.

I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Pistons play host to the New York Knicks, who are coming off a loss to Washington Tuesday night. Detroit is hungry for its first win of the season and its physical brand of basketball will wear down a Knicks side playing the second half of back-to-back games.

The Pistons had the misfortune of opening the season with two straight road games, then completely laid an egg against Brooklyn at home this weekend. Detroit has had an extended break to work out those early-season kinks and new head coach Stan Van Gundy has his team prepared to face the Knicks Wednesday.

New York was rolled by the Wizards, losing 98-83 after getting outscored 58-38 in the second half. That late letdown is a sign of a fatigued team. The Knicks have a minus-6.5 point second-half scoring differential to start the year – sixth lowest in the NBA – and shot just 37 percent from the field Tuesday.

Detroit is a big physical team that bullies its way inside and crashes the boards hard, ranking as one of the top rebounding clubs in the league. That bruising style of play will wear down an already-tired New York side that kicks off a three-game road trip in Motown Wednesday night. 

A hungry and hefty Pistons side and a Knicks team running on empty is why I’m playing Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Blazers are getting discounted at home against the overhyped Cleveland Cavaliers, opening a three-game Western road trip Tuesday.

Cleveland enters Tuesday’s game coming off a hard-fought overtime win against the Chicago Bulls Halloween night. The Cavaliers aren’t crushing opponents as many predicted, instead stumbling through the same chemistry issues LeBron James faced when he joined the Miami Heat. Cleveland is nowhere near as solid on defense as the Heat were and it’s shown in the early goings.

Portland is always a tough team inside the Rose Garden, and is looking to right the ship after back-to-back losses. The Trail Blazers need more from All-Star guard Damian Lillard, who is expected to play Tuesday after nursing an abdominal injury. Lillard is shooting under 27 percent from the field to start the year but will rise to the challenge of Cleveland’s stud PG Kyrie Irving. Last season, Lillard hung 36 and 28 points on the Cavs in their two meetings.

While the stars will shine when these teams collide, the difference will likely be Portland’s ability to go down the bench compared to Cleveland’s shallow reserves. The Blazers can bring in veteran bodies like C Chris Kaman and PG Steve Blake at those key positions, and backups Will Barton and Thomas Robinson are instant energy players. Cleveland’s bench ranks third last in production and doesn’t get much beyond swingman Tristan Thompson.

The Blazers’ depth and Lillard’s dominance versus the Cavaliers is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Thursday. The Clippers have a chance to get a leg up on the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the season, taking on an OKC team without NBA MVP Kevin Durant. These head-to-head matchups are very important for L.A. and could be a major factor once Durant returns and the Western Conference playoff races take shape.

The Thunder looked lost in their first game without Durant at the center of the offense. Oklahoma City was dropped 106-89 by Portland Wednesday night, failing to cover as a 9-point road underdog in the Rose Garden. Russell Westbrook scored 38 in the loss, but the Thunder received little offensive help outside of that, shooting a combined 40.7 percent and managing just 12 points in the fourth quarter.

Oklahoma City is used to Durant creating points when the offense breaks down as well as finding scoring chances for his teammates when defenses key on the dynamic forward. The Thunder are reliant on his ability to stretch the floor and draw bigger defenders away from the hoop with his range from outside. 

Los Angeles has plenty of size and talent around the basket and should dominate the Thunder’s frontcourt with Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Spencer Hawes down low. This is a big game for the franchise, debuting for the first time under the ownership of Steve Ballmer. The Clippers will be motivated to open this new era with a bang.

A lost OKC offense and a bigger, motivated Clippers team is why I’m playing on the L.A. Clippers as my 10* GOM.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns enter this season as perhaps the hungriest team in the NBA after missing the playoffs by one game last year and the Lakers have the misfortune of facing them first.

Phoenix catches the Lakers on the second of back-to-back nights after L.A. fell at home to Houston last night in its season opener.  That’s a big advantage for the Suns against a banged up Lakers lineup that just lost first-round draft pick Julius Randle last night to a broken leg.

New Lakers coach Byron Scott has also said throughout this offseason he’ll be limiting Kobe Bryant’s minutes in the second of back-to-back games, another plus for the Suns tonight.

I believe Phoenix will use one of the best and deepest backcourts in the league to outlast L.A. tonight and win their seventh straight at home against the Lakers. The Suns went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the number last year against L.A. – a reflection of how they played against the bottom half of the league.

The  Suns went 30-9 against the 14 teams with losing records last campaign and should be looking forward to opening the year against a team they’ve had a lot of recent success against. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on MIAMI. I’ve successfully backed the Spurs a few times in this series now, supporting them in Game 1 and Game 3. This will be the first time that I’m taking Miami though.

The Spurs have certainly looked impressive the past two games. They’re obviously a very good team, one which is playing very well right now. The Heat are still the champs though and I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a serious fight.

Lets not forget that the Heat are still 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were trailing in a playoff series.

While neither game at Miami was close, the two here at San Antonio were. The most recent game (Game 2) here was decided by only two points. The first game here saw San Antonio win by 15. However, that game was also close until the final minutes. I won’t be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. That said, we’re getting more points with the Heat than we were for any game in these playoffs and I’m grabbing all the points I can get. 10* main event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. These teams split the first two games at San Antonio. While the Spurs did pull away at the end of the first, both games were close. I won’t be surprised to see an important Game 3 also come down to the wire. That said, I believe that getting this many points with the visitors is providing us with plenty of value. 

The Heat are well known for their ability to bounce back from a playoff loss and they added to that reputation on Sunday. The Spurs are pretty good at doing so themselves though and they tend to thrive when a series is tied. They’re 4-1 SU their last five off a loss, most recently beating the Thunder by 28.

A very well-coached team which almost never panics, the Spurs are also an outstanding 27-11 SU (25-12-1 ATS) the last 38 times that they played when a series was tied. During that stretch, they’re 32-15 ATS (39-8 SU!) off an upset loss. 

Last year, just like this year, the Spurs won Game 1 and the Heat won Game 2. The Spurs would go on to win Game 3 by 36 points, the most one-sided game of the series. While a similar blowout would be surprising, another Spurs’ victory would not. 10* main event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Obviously, both teams really want to start the series with a victory. Playing at home, I believe its more important for the Spurs to do so though. I expect them to have a little more sense of urgency.

San Antonio has been all business in Game 1 the last couple of rounds. The Spurs won the opening game of the last series by 17 points. The previous round, they won the opening game by 24. Having lost the first game against Indiana - and still easily winning the series - and having lost the first game against the Spurs in last years Finals, the Heat may have the sense that they could do so again.

While the Heat are 0-3-1 ATS (0-4 SU) as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the Spurs are 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. That includes a 111-87 destruction of the Heat when the teams met here in March. I look for Popovich to have them ready and I expect them to take care of business once again. 10* roast

I’m playing on San Antonio. Nobody has forgotten the 2012 Western Conference Finals. The Spurs won the first two games against the Thunder in that series only to go on to lose the next four. While some are expecting history to repeat itself, I’m not among them.

These are not the 2012 Spurs. This is a team which does not panic. While this is a Game 5 instead of a Game 7, its obviously a critical game, one the Spurs can ill afford to lose. Here’s a small excerpt from a writeup I used the last time that the Spurs were in a “must win” situation, Game 7 against the Mavs:

"...Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed...’' (The Spurs would go on to win in blowout fashion.)

I believe that sense of calmness, which comes from their experience, their coach and the type of players (Duncan) they have, will serve them well here. They know what they need to do and I look for them to do it.

Obviously, home court has been huge in the series. The home team has won big in all four games.

The Spurs have been money over the years, Game 3 notwithstanding, when off a double-digit loss. They’re 8-6 ATS 12-2 SU the last 14 times that they were off a loss of 10 or more points, going 21-14 ATS (29-6 SU) their last 35. Going back over the years, we find them at a lucrative 124-86-10 ATS their last 220 in that situation.

I expect home court to again prove to be the difference, the Spurs improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 10* Roast

I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers were already heavy underdogs coming into the series and now nobody is giving them any chance at all. I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a fight though. The pressure is now completely off the Pacers. I believe they’ll be able to be loose, while also playing with a sense of pride at the same time.

The Pacers are still 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) their last 11 when trailing in a playoff series. During that time, they’re 39-11 at home (Miami 26-21 on road) and 15-6 off a double-digit loss.

Obviously, the Heat would really like to close out the series tonight. However, with the Spurs/Thunder now still a long way from being over, there may not be quite the same sense of urgency, as there would be if the Spurs had swept, as some thought might be the case after the first two games in that series.

The four point Game 2 loss notwithstanding, the Pacers have had plenty of recent success against the Heat here. I believe they’ll come in expecting to win.

George Hill had this to say: ''I think that is when we are at our best, when our back is against the wall. We are going to be home in front of our fans and I'm sure they're going to be going crazy.’’ I agree. 10* main event

I’m on OKLAHOMA CITY. I respect the Spurs and have backed them a few times of late, most recently in Game 1 of this series. However, I believe this is a strong spot for the Thunder. 

As you’re probably aware, the Spurs are up 2-0. Neither game at San Antonio was close. This game is at Oklahoma City though. The Thunder have won back-to-back games here and are 15-4 their last 19 here. They’ve also owned the Spurs here. In fact, they’re a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven meetings against San Antonio here.

Speaking of 7-0, the Thunder are also 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) the last seven times that they’d played their previous three or more games on the road, 18-4 SU their last 22 in that situation. 

There’s some talk that Ibaka could come back, as he’s been healing faster than expected. Obviously a healthy Ibaka would help this team a lot. I’m not going to rely on him returning though. 

Even with the loss in Game 2, the Thunder are still 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Obviously, they need a win here. With Durant and Westbrook rising to the occasion, I expect them to get it, covering the small number along the way. 10* Conf. Finals GOY

I’m playing on INDIANA. Homecourt didn’t mean much in the Pacers’ last series. However, I expect it to prove significant here.

The Heat are still only 25-20 on the road. The Pacers are still 38-10 at home. The Heat allow 97.4 points on the road. The Pacers allow only 88.9 here at home.

All four regular season meetings were won by the home team. The Pacers won the two games here by scores of 90-84 and 84-83. In both cases, Indiana was favored. This time, we’re actually getting a couple of points.

Nearly everyone expects the Heat to win. I believe the Pacers match up well against them though. This is the series they’ve been waiting for all season and I expect it to bring out their best.

With their last game having come Thursday, the Pacers have had an optimal amount of rest, at least for them; not too much, not too little. They’re 15-2 SU (11-6 ATS) when playing with two day’s rest. The Pacers know they can’t afford to lose another Game 1. Don’t be shocked when they score the upset. 10* main event

I’m playing on OKC. This series has been getting closer and closer and the two previous games here at LA . The first game (at OKC) was decided by 17 points, the second by 11. When the series shifted to LA for Game 3, the game was decided by only six points. Neither team ever led by double-digits. Game 4 was even closer, as it was decided by only two points. Last game? The closest yet, a 1-point win for OKC. While we can’t keep getting closer (as you can’t get closer than Game 5) another close one tonight won’t surprise. (Overall, the total points in the series is 540-539.) That said, I believe the number of the visiting Thunder is generous.

Homecourt has meant little in the series, as the road team has covered four of five games. The Thunder covered both games here at LA, winning one by six and losing the other by two. Keep in mind that there are still distractions from the Sterling scandal still in LA. Additionally, the Clippers could easily be thinking about “what might have been,” after blowing Game 5 in heart-breaking (and controversial) fashion.

Remember last round? Just like this series, the Thunder also saw their Game 5 (at OKC) decided by a single point, a 99-100 thriller vs. the Grizzlies. Remember what happened in Game 6? The Thunder went on the road and crushed the Grizzlies by 20 points.

The Thunder know the Spurs are waiting and they’d really rather not have to drag this to a Game 7. They’re 5-1 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range and I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* main event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. After dominating the first three games of the series, the Spurs stumbled in Game 4. Give the Blazers credit for showing some pride and avoiding the sweep. However, even they know that their chances of coming back to win the series are remote, at best. With the series shifting back to San Antonio, I expect the savvy Spurs to leave no room for doubt.

The Spurs jumped all over the Blazers in the two games here. They were up 65-39 and 70-51 at halftime. They’re going to come out with a lot of intensity again and I feel it will be difficult for the Blazers to avoid falling behind. If/When they do fall behind, reality figures to set in - their season is done.

The Spurs are 11-7 ATS (16-2 SU!) off an “upset” loss. Going back further finds them at a profitable 31-15 ATS (38-8 SU!) in that situation the past few seasons. In fact, that’s been a spot they’ve fared well in throughout the majority of the Duncan/Popovich era.

The Blazers have already had a successful season and can hold their heads high. The Spurs are on a mission though and I expect them to advance with a double-digit win. 10* 2nd Rd. GOY

I’m playing on INDIANA. With three straight victories, the Pacers have taken this series over. The team that dominated much of the regular season has seemingly returned. That said, with a chance to close the deal and a line this low, I feel they’re providing us with excellent value.

The Pacers are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. When they finally got a chance to put the Hawks away, they did so decisively. I expect them to do so again here. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. We saw the road teams have success last night. However, I expect the home team to have the advantage here.

Give the Blazers credit for having a great series against Houston. That was another relatively inexperienced playoff team though. Tonight, they’ll be up against a veteran team that is loaded with playoff experience and savvy, not to mention talent. 

The Blazers are excellent at home but only respectable on the road. The Spurs, on the other hand, are dominant (35-10) at home. They outscore teams by an average of 106-97.6 here overall.

While the Blazers have been sitting around for a few days, the Spurs come in with plenty of momentum, as Sunday's Game 7 was their biggest win of the opening series. 

Off that 119-96 beatdown, note that the Spurs are 71-42-3 ATS (81-35 SU) the past few seasons, after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. 

The Spurs beat the Blazers by 13 here the last time the teams met. They were laying -8.5 points for that one. We’re getting a better line to work with and I expect another big win. 10* annihilator

I’m playing on INDIANA. Its true that the Wizards had an easier time in the first round than the Pacers did. That has allowed them some extra preparation time, as they’ve had more time in between games than Indiana. I believe the Pacers have regained momentum though and don’t feel the small window in between games will hurt them. In fact, I feel it will work to their advantage. Note that the Wizards have some similarities with the Hawks, in terms of playing style. So, the Pacers should be somewhat ready for them.

Meanwhile, when they’d been playing so well, the Wizards probably didn’t need such an extended break between games. Note that Washington is only 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) the last six times it played with three or more day’s rest in between games.

Looking at some stats and we find that the Pacers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. They’re also 19-9 ATS (21-7 SU) the last few seasons, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.

The Pacers have beaten the Wizards 12 straight times here, most recently a 93-66 destruction in January. Before that, it was a 93-73 blowout in November. They’ve been laying a minimum of -6.5 points for all eight meetings against the Wizards here since 2010, including -9.5 and -10 for this season’s two meetings. We’re getting a much smaller number to work with here and I believe that’s providing excellent value. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Admittedly, the Spurs haven’t been very good to me this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though.

We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game.

One could certainly make a case for the Mavericks, as they’ve played the Spurs tough every game. At the end of the day, I believe the Spurs’ depth and experience will prove to be too much for them. Not only are the Spurs at home, they’re a superior team overall.

Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed.''

The Spurs, who were favored in Game 6, are an outstanding 30-15 ATS (37-8 SU!) the last 45 times that they were off an upset loss. I don’t believe run is over yet. I look for them to come through with their best game of the series, en route to a big win and cover. 10* main event

I’m playing on TORONTO. Many are likely going to back Brooklyn here. True, the Nets have a lot of recognizable faces and plenty of playoff experience. However, I really like the character of this well-coached Raptor team and I believe that playing an early Sunday game (something they do regularly) here at Toronto gives them the advantage.

We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game, each by a minimum of five.

Brooklyn’s Andray Blatche was doing some trash-talking and guaranteed the Nets would win this game. That didn’t sit well with the Raptors. Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez had this to say: ''Who does he think he is? He's not KG or Paul Pierce or Jason Kidd. We're not going to listen to his nonsense.’'

I agree with DeRozan when he said that the Nets had more pressure on them. He had this to say: ''Yeah, man. We ain't got not 100 million payroll or whatever they got. That's all on them. At the end of the day, they have more to lose than us.''

The Nets are just 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) as road underdogs of three or fewer points. They’re also 2-3 ATS (1-4 SU) when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. On the other hand, the Raptors are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites of three or less. Don’t be surprised when they improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* breakfast club

I’m playing on LA. This series has certainly had a little bit of everything. While the last game came down to the wire, there have also been a few lopsided victories. The more focused team and/or the one which has overcome distractions, has generally had the advantage. With this being a Game 7, once the game starts, I expect both teams to effectively block out the distractions and this one to be decided on the floor. Playing at home, I like the Clippers’ chances.

There’s a fair amount of talk about LA’s Chris Paul being injured. He’s a warrior though and I’m not too worried about that. Paul had this to say: ''I'll be there. Seven-thirty, that ball's throwed up, I'll be there. Can't wait.’”

I’m not so confident that Golden State’s Jermaine O’neal will be able to bounce back and be ready the way Paul is for the Clippers. Even if he plays, he’s likely to be at less than 100%. For a Warriors’ team already without Bogut, that figures to spell trouble.

While they failed to cover in all three games at Oakland, the Clippers won each of the last two here at LA by double-digits. Those wins came by 10 and 40 points. With Paul refusing to let his team lose, I look for the Clippers to overcome the adversity with another convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on OKC. The Thunder have regained the momentum and are back at home. They fought hard all season to be able to play this game here and I expect them to rise to the occasion with their best effort.

As if beating the Thunder in a Game 7 at OKC wasn’t already going to be difficult enough, the Grizzlies will be without Zach Randolph, who has been suspended. While that caused the line to climb slightly, I think his loss is greater than was reflected by the relatively small move. Throw in the fact that Conley is way less than 100% and things aren't going to easy for the Grizzlies, who are rarely as good on the road as they are at home.

Conley commented: "Me being banged up, you're going to have to ask more out of different guys, see a lot of guys step up ...''

The Thunder are the stronger team. They won by 20 last time out, their second double-digit win in the series. Playing at home, I look for them to dictate the tempo en route to another convincing win and cover. 10*

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. I haven’t had much success with the Spurs in this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though. 

The Mavs got big games from Nowitzki and Carter last time out and still lost by six. A closer look shows that all three San Antonio victories have come by a minimum of four points. Tonight, with a lower line, that’ll be enough for a cover. 

Speaking of the lower line, note that the Mavs are only 2-6 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. 

The Spurs, who are 70-41-3 ATS (80-34 SU) the past couple of seasons after scoring 105 or more in their previous game, have got the momentum back in their corner. Needless to day, they don’t want to see a Game 7. I believe they’ll smell the blood in the water and close things out, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. While they didn’t make it easy on themselves, the Spurs dug deep and came away with a badly needed victory last time out. Now, despite the venue shifting back to San Antonio, they’re only laying a couple more points than they were at Dallas. I believe that’s providing excellent value.

While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start. Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS (or 13-7-1 ATS) the last 21 in the series.

It should be noted that Blair is suspended for Dallas, for a kick in the last game. When he left the last game, he was 5 for 5 on shooting with 12 points and 11 rebounds (+ 2 steals) in 16 minutes. I believe that his absence will prove to be a big blow.

The Spurs have been here before. They're 23-11-1 ATS (24-11 SU) the last 35 times that they’ve been tied in a playoff series.

I believe the Spurs now have the momentum back on their side. I expect them to put it all together with their best game of the series, leading to a convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Give the Mavericks credit. They’re up 2-1 and playing Game 4 here at home. However, lets not forget that the Spurs were the best team in the league during the regular season. Night after night, city after city, they brought their A-Game. While its not an elimination game, its still one the Spurs know they desperately need. I expect them to be at their best.

Keep in mind that the Spurs 30-11 road record was better than the Mavs’ 23-18 mark here at Dallas. While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start.

Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS the last 20 in the series.

Despite failing to get it done last time out, the Spurs are still a dominating 30-14 ATS (36-8 SU) the last 44 times that they were off an “upset” loss, 10-6 ATS this season. On the other hand, the Mavs are just 5-7 ATS off a SU victory as an underdog.

The Spurs are 15-9 ATS the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. That includes a 6-3 ATS mark this season. Conversely, the Mavs are 2-7 ATS when playing a home game with a total in the same range, 8-15 ATS the past couple of seasons.

Losing in the manner the Spurs lost Game 3 can be tough on a team. However, as Ginobili noted of the extremely well-coached Spurs: ''On a tough blow like this one, having been there, having suffered way worse than this, can help … We’ve got to go for it and play better.”

I’m not counting out the top seeds yet. I expect the Spurs to play their best game of the series and for that to lead to a win and cover. 10* West Conf Opening Rnd. GOY

I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers dug deep last game and came through with a critical victory. Back home, where they’re typically much stronger, I expect them to follow it up with another very important win.

I played on the Pacers in Game 2, which was the most recent game here. Having lost the opener, they were fully focused on the task at hand. They won by 16.

Including that one-sided win, the Pacers have now taken seven of the last nine meetings with the Hawks, here at Indiana. The last five of those victories (and six of the seven overall) all came by double-digits. Indiana wins came by 16, 10, 23, 15 and 17 points.

I believe the Pacers are the superior team. They were dominant for most of the season, before going through a lull towards the end. I believe they’ve reawakened and the team that earned the #1 seed is ready to return. They’re still 36-7 here at Indiana, outscoring teams by an average of more than 10 points per game.

Paul George had this to say: "We've got to put this game and this series away.” I look for George and co. to do so in convincing fashion. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs took the Mavs’ best punch in Game 1. While they didn’t cover, they emerged victorious. I expect that close call to serve as a wake up call and feel that the Mavs aren’t likely to get another shot at an upset. 

The common logic here seems to be that if the Mavs were so close, even without a big game from Dirk. That now if Dirk plays better, they’ll win easily. That’s not necessarily the case though. Everything else is never equal - so one can’t look at it that way. 

The Spurs are 29-4 SU and 22-11 ATS the last 33 times that they played with two day’s rest in between games. They’ve dominated in the first round the past couple of seasons and I look for them to prove they’re the more complete team tonight. 10* personal favorite

10* Spurs. Analysis before 7am PST Sunday.