I'm playing on SF 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Dons on Christmas Day. Playing in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic, they lost against San Diego State. That trip took a bit of a toll, as they have failed to cover in either game since. Still, they did play very well even to get to the finals of that tournament as they had to beat Utah in the opening round to do so. Not bad considering that the Utes haven't lost a game since (most recently crushing Colorado on 1/1) and that they've only lost two other games (at Xavier and vs. Butler) all season. After beating the Utes, the Dons beat a limited a half decent Illinois State squad to just 58 points. The Dons have only lost four times overall on the season and none of those losses came by more than 14 points. For last season's meeting here, Gonzaga was laying -13.5 points and won by just eight; three of the last four meetings have been decided by 11 or less. Including last year's non-cover here, Gonzaga is just 2-6 ATS the last eight times it was laying more than a dozen points on the road. While I respect the Bulldogs, I believe that this line will again prove to be too high.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* VIOLATOR. Off three straight impressive wins, the Pacers are finally starting to play up to their potential. That's going to spell trouble for a Nets team which has lost three straight and eight of nine. While the Nets last two losses have both come by double-digits, the Pacers' last two games here both results in double-digit wins. While the Nets won the game at Brooklyn, the Pacers won by 21 when the teams met here earlier. The Nets haven't gotten any better and the Pacers are stronger now than they were then. I'm expecting another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Hornets in their last game. That was on the road though and it was against a revenge-minded Bulls team which I thought was going to be desperate for a win. The shoe's on the other foot this time though. This time, the Hornets are at home. This time, off b2b losses and knowing that they've got a 5-game road trip on deck after this, one which includes stops at San Antonio, Houston, Detroit and Boston, the Hornets know that they need to take care of business tonight, or they risk getting off to a potentially ugly start to 2017. 

While the Thunder get outscored by a 107.2 to 101.9 margin on the road, the Hornets outscore teams by a 104.3 to 101.4 margin here at home. They're a modest 3-2 ATS as home underdogs of three or fewer points this season, 13-10 ATS in that role, the past 2+ seasons. Those number sound a whole lot better when compared to OKC's 0-4 ATS mark as a road underdog of three or fewer points. In fact, thats been an ugly role for the Thunder, even prior to Durant's departure. They're just 3-15 SU/ATS their last 18 as road underdogs of three or less. 

The Hornets weren't able to beat the Thunder in recent seasons but I believe they're ready to take the next step and I look for them do so tonight, covering the small nubmer along the way.

I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Commodores have dominated the Tigers for ears. They won last season's games by 47 combined points. I expect them to continue that domination this evening. The Tigers suffered their third loss of the season last time out. To their credit, they've done a good job at bouncing back from the previous two. However, this latest loss was different. First of all, it came in conference play - they're just 8-19 SU off a conf. loss the past 2+ seasons. Worse, it came in a game where they held a 12-point second half lead, eventually losing by 12. The Tigers had been rolling before that second half meltdown, arguably riding as high as they had at any point since the last time (2003) they went to the NCAA Tournament. To lose in that manner, in the first game back from Christmas, figures to be a tough pill to swallow, going into the new year. Also, Vanderbilt is much better than either of the two teams (USC Upstate and Coastal Carolina) that Auburn previously bounced back from losses against. The Commodores followed up a cover at Dayton with a win/cover at LSU. Back home, where they've won three straight and five of six, I expect them to continue their positive momentum and their dominance in this series.

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* PERS FAV. The Suns aren't favored too often but I feel they could easily be laying a bigger number tonight. The Heat, who have lost five straight and eight of nine, are a mess right now. They've been dealing with major injury issuses all season but are also going to be without Whiteside tonight, a major blow. Winslow is also out. Dragic is questionabe while Waiters doubtful, Bosh and McRoberts remain out. Sure, the Suns played last night, a blowout loss at LA. However, they had the previous couple of days off. So, its not that gruelling a spot. Also, the last time they were in a back-to-back spot, they won outright vs. a very good Toronto team. Including that result, they're 9-5-1 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Look for homecourt and superior health to be the difference in this one, the Suns bouncing back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played on the Jayhawks a couple of weeks ago, in their 89-71 win over Davidson. Since that time, they won at UNLV and TCU but failed to cover at either venue. I felt that the Jayhawks, who are as loaded as ever, were going to be a little extra motivated for the Davidson game. Back home now, facing their instate "rival," and having allowed 80 or more points for just the second time this season, the Jayhawks should again look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. Not only have the Jayhawks dominated the Wildcats for years, but they're also 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more points, going a lucrative 49-24 ATS in that situation over the years. While the Wildcats have an impressive record, they have yet to face a team anything like the one they'll see here. Note that the Wildcats, who are off a win vs. Texas, are just 4-10 SU/ATS the last 14 times that they were off a conference victory. Kansas was laying -12.5 points for the last meeting and won by a 22-point margin. I expect another one-sided result, the Jayhawks pulling away and improving to 13-7 ATS (19-1 SU) the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. Recent results are providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated Bulls team. The Bulls have thrived in home games hovering around the pick'em range. Over the past couple of seasons, they're 9-4 ATS (2-0 ATS this season) as a home underdog, or pick'em, of three points or less. During that stretch, they're also 12-6 ATS (3-1 this season) as home favorites of three or fewer points. Charlotte is 8-8 on the road, the Bulls are 10-7 at home. The Bulls know that they've got the Cavs next and that three of their next five are on the road, with the two home games both coming against quality (Toronto and OKC) teams. In other words, they need to stop the bleeding now. Added motivation provided by the fact that the Hornets beat them by double-digits at Charlotte, just over a week ago. New year = Payback time. 

I'm playing on JAMES MADISON 10* BEST BET. The Tigers check in with the better record but the Dukes are the team which enters 2017 with some positive momentum. James Madison closed out 2016 with back-to-back victories, including a double-digit blowout of Drexel on New Year's Eve. This is a team which is finally starting to come together and they'll be highly motivated to keep the roll going here. The Tigers closed 2016 with a blowout loss. They're 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season, losing both games outright. That brings them to 7-13 ATS their last 20 when laying points. During that stretch, the Tigers are also just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 1-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. During that span, the Dukes are 11-7 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 2-1 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range.JMU won by 14 in last season's meeting here, while losing by two at Towson. I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on CAL 10* PERS FAV. I believe that the Sun Devils are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After 27 straight wins here, the Bears have dropped back-to-back games. Don't expect it to happen a third time. Those last two losses both came against ranked teams and the Sun Devils represent a significant step down in class.  ASU does have a couple of fairly impressive wins under its belt already, San Diego State earlier and Stanford last time out. The Sun Devils also already have six losses though. All six came by a minimum of eight points and five came by double-digits. While they do deserve some credit for the win at Stanford, they'll be playing the second of b2b road games here, a stretch which will see them play five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road, and it figures to catch up with them here. With road games at UCLA and USC on deck, the Bears know they can ill afford to take the Sun Devils lightly. They won't. Cal bounces back big. 

I'm playing on STANFORD 10* BB. Going against the Cats cost me a couple of times in December but that won't stop me from doing so here, as I believe this is an excellent spot for Stanford. The fact that the Cardinal have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, combined with Arizona's recent run of success, has driven the line up a little higher than it could have been otherwise. The only previous time that the Cardinal failed to cover three straight, they got an extra generous line as an underdog against Seton Hall. They ended up winning outright by double-digits. The Cardinal, 34-10 their last 44 home games, have still only lost two games here this season and only one of those (St. Mary's) came by more than five points. Both teams had New Year's Eve off, after they each played 12/30. That scheduling situation figures to be a little more familar to the Cardinal. While Arizona is 0-1, when playing with one day or less of rest, Stanford is already 4-0 in that situation. The only time that Arizona did play with one day or less worth of rest resulted in an outright loss against Butler. The fact that the Cats have had time off in between all their other games has helped with their injury issues. I expect it to catch up to them tonight though as a motivated Stanford team steps up and earns at least a cover. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOM. Both these teams lost yesterday. Neither looked particularly sharp. Rondo got benched for the second half, which may well serve as a wake-up call. I like the fact that the Bulls played at 4pm ET yesterday, as opposed to the 8:00pm ET start that the Bucks had to deal with. They were already showering and getting ready to head home, before the Bucks even got started. Sleeping in their own beds should work to their advantage, with both teams in a three-games-in-four-days spot.

While the Bulls are only 3-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are just 1-5 SU/ATS when doing so. The Bulls should have some added motivation, as the Bucks beat them twice in a row earlier this month. The last thing they want to do is lose three games in a single month against a division rival which is neck-and-neck with them in the Central. 

The Bulls are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as home favorites of three or fewer points, going 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) in that role the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to rise to the occasion and close out the year with a win and cover.

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GOM. While the Wolfpack have been beating up on some weak teams, the Hurricanes have been winning but not covering. That's brought this afternoon's line down lower than it easily could have been. I believe thats providing us with very fair value here. Note that the Canes are 4-0-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Wolfpack are allowing a whopping 83.7 ppg, to go along with a 47.8% opponent's shooting percentage, when playing on the road. The Canes, on the other hand, are allowing just 57 ppg here at home, holding visiting teams to a 35.6% shooting percentage. The Wolfpack have been underdogs twice this season and they failed to cover either time. Though some of the games have been closer than expected, the Canes have still won by at least eight points in each of their victories. Expect homecourt to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* ME. The home team won both meetings last season and I'm expecting homecourt to be the difference again tonight. Though banged-up, the Wildcats are off an impressive win over New Mexico. However, they're now on the road (just their second true road game) against a much stronger opponent. I expect their nagging bumps and bruises to finally catch up with them. Cal lost against Virginia last game. However, that was the Bears' first loss here in 27 games. They're still outscoring opponents by an average score of 73.9 to 58.2 on this floor. I expect them to bounce back with an important win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played on the Pistons a couple of times recently. I backed them when they were getting a lot of points against Golden State, catching the Warriors looking ahead to their Christmas Day game vs the Cavs. Then, I backed them against the Cavs, sans Lebron, after that game vs. the Warriors. However, those were both favorable spots. With the exception of those games, the Pistons have not been very good. They lost by 25 last time out and have now dropped six of seven overall. Every one of those losses came by at least six points. The Hawks, who have won two of three, are playing with revenge from a blowout loss at the beginning of the month. Payback time.

I'm playing on ILLINOIS STATE 10* GOW. This lone could easily be higher. Illinois State is undefeated at home, outscoring teams by a 77.8 to 65 margin here. On the other hand, Evansville is 1-4 away from home, getting outscored by an average of 72.2 to 64. While the Purple Aces have been rolling, this wins have come primarily at home and entirely against lesser compeition. They've lost all four games when getting points, going 1-3 against the number. The Redbirds have won four of five including a 9-point win over St. Joseph's, a team stronger than Evansville, in their last game on this flloor. I expect them to pull away for a double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* PERS FAV. The Lobos enter conference play off a bad loss at Arizona. They've had some time to regroup though. Returning home, I expect them to bounce back with a big effort tonight. Note that New Mexico is 16-2 SU the past 18 times that it played with seven or more day's rest in between games. While the Bulldogs are getting outscored away from home, the Lobos are undefeated on this floor outscoring visiting teams by an average margin of 78.8 to 63.8. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that the Lobos are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The visiting team won both games last season but the home team gets it done tonight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. The Bulls got back on track last game, earning a victory over the Pacers. That snapped a 3-game winless streak and put an end to an ugly run which had seen them go just 1-6 their previous seven and 3-9 their previous 12. Recent games have come against quality opponents. Stepping down in class to face the Nets, I expect the Bulls to build off the Pacers' win and for them to deliver a blowout.

This game's got a high O/U line. Not surprising, given the fact that the Nets allow an obscene 117.7 ppg on the road. The high total is noteworthy as the Nets are an awful 1-24 SU and 9-14-2 ATS the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During the same stretch, the Bulls are a profitable 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing at home with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Bulls won this season's earlier meeting (at Brooklyn) by 30 points. They also won the last meeting here at Chicago (last season) by 16. I'm expecting another one-sided affair. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Hurricanes are perfect on this floor and they outscore teams by a 78.2 to 55.3 margin here. They should win this one by an even wider margin than that. With conference play on deck, the Hurricanes are going to want to keep the pedal to the metal and build up confidence. Before recent wins over teams like George Washington and FAU, they'd faced the likes of Florida, Stanford and Iowa State. The 8-point win over GW was the only time in their past five games that the Canes hadnt won by double-digits. Columbia has yet to cover as an underdog yet this season and is just 7-12 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. Expect this one to "get ugly."

I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. In their final game before Big 12 play begins, the Longhorns are looking to build confidence and momentum. They're off a dominating 96-60 win over UAB,  their best offensive game of the season. The Longhorns are looking to build off that impressive performance and prove that it wasn't a fluke. Kent State should provide them that opportunity. The Flashes are off b2b losses and are just 2-4 away from home. They have yet to see an opponent as talented as this one. Look for a double-digit win, the Longhorns improving to 22-8 ATS their last 30 lined games, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their preivous game.

I'm playing on SYRACAUSE 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off an awful 93-60 loss to St. John's before the Christmas break, I expect the Orange to bounce back and win this one in blowout fashion. The Big Red have a first year coach (Brian Earl) and he's about to learn that while these teams have met regularly, this is no rivalry. Indeed, with last season's 21-point romp, the Orange have won 36 straight in the series. Cornell is only 3-8 and that includes a 30-point loss, at Houston. I won't be surprised by a similar margin here, the Orange regaining their confidence with a rout, while improving to 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the last eight times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. 

I won with the Pistons (10* PERS FAV) in their last game, as they covered against the Warriors. It was a great spot, as they were catching the Warriors off a comeback win the previous night and looking ahead to the Christmas Day matchup with the Cavs. This spot is arguably even better, as they catch the Cavs off yesterday's big win over the Warriors and wiith Lebron and Irving (potentially) out. Regardless of who plays for the Cavs, look for the revenge-minded Pistons to step up and improve to 4-0 SU/ATS when playing with exactly two day's rest in between games.

I'm playing on SDSU 10* PERS FAV. While both teams recorded impressive wins on Thursday and Friday to be here, I particularly like the path that the Aztecs took. After a dominant defensive performance in their tournament opener, a 66-51 beating of Southern Miss, the Aztecs stepped up in class a little to take on Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane gave them a good challenge, for a while, as the game was tied with 11 minutes left. Thats when the Aztecs flexed their muscles and closed the game and went on a 21-4 run.

After losing, Tulsa coach Haith had this to say about the Aztecs: "...San Diego State is a tough-minded team and very physical, and it's the type of team that you can't give any help. We weren't as tough as you need to be to win that type of game..."

With wins over Utah and Illinois State to get here, the Dons have proven that they're to be taken seriously. They're just 3-12 SU (5-9 ATS) the last 15 times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points though. With SF allowing 69.1 ppg (41%) and SDSU allowing just 62.5 (38.8%) I'm laying the small number with what I believe will prove to be the superior team. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* BB. This one sets up nicely for the home team. While the Pistons had last night off, the Warriors received a tougher test than they were probably expecting at Brooklyn. While they ultimately did cover, thanks to a huge second half, the bad start forced them to have to fight hard the entire way. Green is expected to return, and he'll be fresh from not playing last night, but the rest of the team will be in a relatively tough back-to-back spot while also playing their third game in four nights. With a Christmas Day showdown vs. the Cavs on deck, given the success they've already had on the trip, it should be easy to look past the Pistons. The Pistons upset the Warriors here last season though, a 113-95 blowout when listed as 7-point underdogs, and I expect them to come ready to play. While the Warriors are 2-4 ATS in b2b spots this season, the Pistons are a healthy 24-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an 'upset' loss. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised to see the Pistons bounce back with the outright win. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10*. The Pirates have destroyed Rutgers in recent Decembers. Last December, laying -5.5 points, they beat the Knights by a whopping 84-55 margin. The previous December was almost as bad, an 81-54 destruction, in a game where the Pirates were laying nine points. I expect another double-digit win this evening. The Pirates have beaten every opponnet on this floor by a minimum of 13 points. They're hitting 54% of their shots here, visiting teams connecting on less than 40% of theirs.

Its true that the Knights are off to their best start in 40 years, with only one loss. However, thats largely because they've only played one decent team. Their best wins came against Depaul and Stony Brook. The only time they faced a 'good' team (Miami) they lost by double-digits. Indeed, thus far, the Knights' schedule ranks as the second weakest of all the 351 Div 1A teams. 

Seton Hall's Angel Delgado had this to say about the Knights and their hot start: "They could be No. 1 in the country, we're still going to beat them. I'm coming with the mindset that we're not losing this game. That's how I feel, that's how I'm always going to feel. They were disrespecting us last year with a lot of stuff, but we're always tough here at home.''

While the Knights are 1-3 ATS their last four as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range, the Pirates are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Look for Delgado and co. to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GOW. While I respect the Celtics, I believe that the Pacers are offering excellent value here. Off a loss at MSG and knowing that the Celtics already beat them here, I expect the Pacers to be extremely motivated tonight. This is a Pacers team which had hoped to close the gap with the Cavs this season. Instead, thus far, the Pacers have gone the other way. Instead, the Pacers find teams like Toronto, New York, Charlotte and these same Celtics all in between them and the champs. While only 500 overall, they're still a solid 11-4 at home, which is superior to Boston's 10-7 road record. 

While the Celtics, who were involved in a hard-fought OT game on Tuesday, have a big home game against OKC tomorrow, followed by a Christmas Day showdown with the Knicks, the Pacers don't play for another for days after this. Look for an inspired effort from the revenge-minded Pacers, as they'll be hungry to head into the break with a winning record, rather than a losing one. Indiana leaves it all on the floor and comes away with the important win. 

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND 10* PERS FAV. Having scored a combined 225 points their last two games, the Tribe bring some impressive offensive stats to the table. However, lets keep in mind that those games came against the likes of Milligan and Savannah State. Also, both came at home where the Tribe are undefeated. Winning on the road has been an entirely different matter. Indeed, William & Mary is 0-4 away from home, all four losses coming by double-digits. 

While the Tribe gets outscored by an ugly 87.2 to 68.7 margin on the road, the Rams are outscoring teams by a dominant 78 to 60.7 points here at home. 

In their final game before conference play starts, the Rams are looking to build positive momentum with an aggressive "attacking" game. Coach Dan Hurley commented: "In a perfect world right now, with Hassan out, we wouldn't mind seeing the three guards shoot 35 to 40 shots between them in a game .... everyone in attack mode every single game. That's what we want to see from those guys."

While Hurley acknowledged his team was looking forward to conf. play, he added: "...you're also excited about the opportunity to end the nonconference the right way." 

I expect Hurley's Rams to do just that, improving to 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. They were on the road and facing a Bulls team which was going to be extra hungry due to the fact it was off a blowout loss and due to having lost three straight. The shoe's on the other foot here though. This time, the Pistons are at home and this time they're off a blowout loss, their third straight defeat. They catch the Grizzlies off a game (OT loss!) vs Boston less than 24 hours ago, playing their third game in four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. While the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS (0-10 SU) the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range, the Pistons are 7-3-1 ATS (9-2 SU) the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the Pistons to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE 10* GOW. The Golden Grizzlies bring the better record to the table. However, I believe that they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both teams are off a loss against Northeastern. However, while MSU faced the Huskies on Sunday, the Golden Grizzlies did so last night. Off last night's hard-fought defeat, this will be their third game in the past four days. 

I wouldnt have minded if Oakland had won last night, but a very close loss works even better. Either way, the Spartans figure to have plenty of motivation. Comments like these, made Monday by Oakland's coach (Kampe), figure to throw gas on the fire:

"We set this up, we knew it was coming, knew it was looming: three really good teams ... One could say that Northeastern's the best of the three teams we're going to play. I don't know if they’re better than Michigan State or not, but they sure were yesterday."

The Spartans have never lost to the Golden Grizzlies. Last season, they spotted them a 50-37 halftime lead but stormed back to win by six. This season, with the schedule in their favor, I expect them to jump on them out of the gate, as they did in 2014. In that meeting, MSU was up 13 by the break and won by 26. Look for the Spartans to bounce back big, improving to 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they had allowed 80 or more points in their previous game.

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* BB. This is the renewal of a rivalry that goes back over the years. The teams will meet again at "The Pit" next season, the second half of the home-and-home series. While the Wildcats could easily get caught patting themselves on the back after beating Texas A&M and/or looking ahead to conference play, I expect the Lobos to be "sky high" for a chance to face a ranked opponent from the Pac-12. Note that the Lobos are 11-3 ATS over the years, as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 12.5 to 15.5 range. While the Lobos have lost a few games, only one has been by more than 13 points. Off an 83-43 win, they come in with some confidence. The Wildcats are still a banged-up team, one which beat "Grand Canyon" by only 10 points its last time on this floor. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Off four straight losses, the Hornets finally got back on track last time out, a 107-99 win at Atlanta. Back home, I expect them to follow it up with a decisive win over the Lakers. Since the win at Atlanta, the Hornets have had two days off. That break probably came at the right time, as they hadn't had more than a day off in between games for some time. Its also worth mentioning that Charlotte has thrived when playing with exactly two day's rest in recent seasons and is alreayd 2-0 SU/ATS when doing so this season, winning by an average of 13 points. The Lakers eked out a cover last time out but still lost by 11. They're just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the month. Their last three losses have all been by double-digits. Charlotte was 2-0 SU/ATS against the Lakers last season, both victories coming by double-digits. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. I lost with the Bulls in their last game. So, I know that they looked pretty bad. I'm fully willing to give them another shot tonight though. The Bulls recent 3-game skid has helped to keep this line lower than it normally might be. However, off back-to-back double-digit losses of their own, the Pistons haven't exactly looked great of late either. Also, note that the Bulls are already 2-0 SU/ATS off three straight losses this season, blowing out Orlando by more than 30 points and beating San Antonio outright. Going back further finds them at 11-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off of three or more consecutive losses. 

With an O/U line currently at 195.5, as of this writing, note that the Pistons are 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range while the Bulls are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing at home with a total in the same range. The Bulls, who will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Detroit, are also 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I like them to bounce back big tonight.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH 10* BEST BET. I'm happy to grab the points here as I believe that the Golden Eagles have an excellent shot at the outright victory. Sure, the Golden Eagles have lost three straight. However, the first two of those came at Michigan State and at Tennessee and the most recent came by only two points. The loss against Lipscomb last game wasn't what they were hoping for. However, in fairness, they'd just really fought hard against the Spartans and Vols, losing by six and 12 points, easily covering in both. Including those results, they're 7-2 ATS their last nine December lined games. 

The Paladins' 6-5 record is a little deceiving, as UAB is the only good team which they've beaten. While that win was certainly impressive, it came early in the season and it required a 62% effort from beyond the 3-point line, something they haven't come close to matching since. Last time out, they shot 28% from beyond the arc, losing at home against lowly South Carolina State. Not too impressive considering that South Carolina State, hailing from the Mid-Eastern Conference, is still only 3-8 and has still been outscored by a 83.9 to 64.2 average score. 

While the Paladins are 1-3 ATS the last four times (and 4-10-1 ATS the last 15) that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, during the same  the Golden Eagles are 3-1 ATS (and SU) in four tries as home underdogs of three or fewer points. With the Paladins averaging 69.8 ppg on the road and the Golden Eagles averaging 82.8 on this floor, I'm backing what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on PHILADEDELPHIA 10* PERS FAV. As victories are hard to come by for each of these teams, they've probably both had this one circled. With the Nets having recently beaten the Lakers by double-digits and the 76ers off a double-digit loss to those same Lakers, many might want to back Brooklyn here. Not me. Playing at home, I expect the 76'ers to have the advantage. The home team won all four meetings last season. The Nets won 100-91 and 131-114 in the games at Brooklyn. However, the 76ers won 103-98 and 95-89 in the games here at Philly. This season, the Nets have just one win on the road while have tasted victory four times here at home. The 76ers are already 7-2 ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. With a rare chance for a victory, I expect them to "rise to the occasion" and come with the win and cover.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE 10* ME. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are tough every season and thats the case again this year. That doesn't mean that we can't successfully pick spots to go against them though. Some will recall that I played on Iowa State when the Cyclones covered against Gonzaga. I thought the Bulldogs would receive a tough test that day and I look for them to get more than they bargained for again this afternoon.

While this is technically a neutral court game, its being played at Nasvhille. So, although Nasvhille and Knoxville are still a fair distance apart, the venue certainly favors the Vols. Thats noteworthy as Gonzaga has yet to play in many "hostile environments," like its going to encounter here. In fact, the Bulldogs have yet to play a "true road game" this season and most of their neutral site games, besides Florida which they faced in Orlando, have actually been pretty "neutral." Note that Gonzaga won that Florida game by just five points. Including that result, three of its four neutral site games were decided by seven or fewer points. Looking at it another way, when playing away from home, Gonzaga has only beaten one team by more than seven points all season. And that was Quinnipiac. 

Speaking of close games, the Vols have already lost by eight against Wisconsin, lost by four against Oregon and lost by two against UNC. That UNC loss was their only setback in the last six games and no team has beatem by more than eight since the first game of the season. The Vols have been money in the underdog role over the years and again so far this season. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* ANNIHILATOR. Remember when Curry almost led Davidson to an upset of Kansas in the NCAA Tournament? How about when the Wildcats actually upset the Jayhawks here at the Sprint Center? Well, those games were a long time (2008 and 2011) ago now. Curry is long gone and Davidson isn't the same team. Kansas hasn't forgotten though and I expect some payback to be in order. While the Jayhawks will head West after this, this game will be their ninth in a row played at either the Sprint Center or Allen Fieldhouse. On the other hand, the Wildcats have yet to play a home game this month. Its starting to catch up with them too, as they've lost their last two by a combined 24 points. The Jayhawks are outscoring teams by a 93.8 to 65.2 margin their past five games. Self will make sure his team remembers what happened last time; I expect him to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. I like how this one sets up for the "home" team. (*Game is being played at the Moda Center in Portland.) The Pilots got a wake-up call last time out, as Texas Rio Grande took them to double-OT. I like the fact that they were able to 'survive' and eke out the win and feel that the close victory will serve them well here. While their last scheduled game (Boise State) got postponed due to a snowstorm, note that the only three teams that have beaten the Pilots this season are Colorado, UCLA and Dayton. 

True, the Coyotes are off b2b wins. However, both those games came at home and they came against the likes of Sacramento State and Montana State. They're 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the last four times that they played away from South Dakota and the lone "cover" was a 12-point loss, as a 13-point underdog. 

Look for the close win their last time on the floor and the 'big game experience' gained from playing in the Wooden Legacy Tournament to serve the Pilots well, as they take down the Coyotes, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. As your probably saw, these teams faced each other last night, at Milwaukee. The Bucks led big almost the entire way and finished with a 108-97 victory. Back on their homecourt, I expect the revenge-minded Bulls to avenge that loss in a big way tonight. The Bulls, 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven as a host in this series, beat the Bucks by 10 and 11 points here last season. The Bulls are 7-4 at home this season, outscoring teams by a 104.5 to 99.5 margin here. The Bucks are 3-6 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 102.3 to 96.4 margin. While the Bulls have won a couple times already this season, when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are 0-4 SU/ATS in that situation. Payback time.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Warriors enter tonight's game on a 4-game ATS skid. A date with the Knicks should help. While the Knicks are clearly an improved team this season, they're still not exactly consistent. Last time out, they lost at Phoenix. The Suns entered that game with a 7-17 record and a 3-7 mark at home. Now, they'll face a Warriors team which is leading the league and which is outscoring teams by more than 14 ppg here. Note that the recent ATS losses were on the road. The Warriors won their last two games here by 36 and 29 points, respectively. 

Speaking of "blowout" wins, the Warriors beat the Knicks by 21 points at MSG last season and by a whopping 36 here at Golden State. I don't feel the Knicks, who average 104.5 ppg on the road, are quite ready to keep up and am expecting the Warriors, who average 123.9 here at home, to ultimately pull away for another decisive win. 

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Playing at home and favored by 10 points, the Knights did not look good last game. They'd connect on less than 40% of their shots and finish with less than 50 points, an ugly 58-49 loss to Pennsylvania. Not very good when considering that the Quakers had lost four of their previous five and were off a 79-60 blowout loss against George Mason. Of course, it didn't help matters that they played without their starting point guard and leading scorer, B.J. Taylor. Now, the Knights, still sans Taylor, take to the road to face a George Washington team which is off a 79-60 blowout win, a team which hammered them last season (67-50 at UCF) and which has won four of its last five. Yikes. While the Colonials continue to play without Watanabe, they're playing well without him. They're sharing the ball well (20 assists last game) and playing good team basketball. While the blowout of Howard was to be expected, their recent win at Temple was impressive. They'll be coming in full of confidence and I expect them to keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. While I respect the Rockets, I believe this line will prove to be a little too high. Yes, Houston has been winning. However, lets keep in mind that three of the Rockets' past five victories have come by four points or less. As hot as they've been, only three of their past eight games resulted in a double-digit win. Off a 116-92 blowout of the Lakers, the Kings come in with some positive momentum. While the wins haven't been there, they've quietly been very competitive. In fact, only two of their past 18 games resulted in a loss of greater than 10 points. One of those two losses came against these same Rockets, a 13-point loss on 11/25. Look for the Kings, who are only getting outscored by an average of 103.2 to 101.2 on the road this season, to be more competitive in this evening's rematch, giving their hosts all they can handle and improving to 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA 10* PERS FAV. A few weeks ago, the Bulldogs beat the Rajin' Cajuns by 14 points. While that 11/19 game was played on the football field, I expect the Bulldogs to win this evening's basketball game by a similar margin. The Cajuns bring a decent record to the table. However, the only quality team which they faced was Minnesota and they lost that one by double-digits, failing to cover as +8.5 point underdogs.

Georgia has struggled against top tier opponents but has taken care of lesser ranked teams. Three of the Bulldogs' five victories, including each of their last two, have come by double-digits.

With an O/U line in the 150s, this game is projected to play at a fairly fast tempo and to be quite high-scoring. That figures to favor Georgia. The Dawgs are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the past couple of seasons when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s and that includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a game here at home with a line in the 150 to 154.5 range. During the same period, the Cajuns are just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s.

The Bulldogs, who lost to Marquette on 12/4, are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons when playing with seven or more day's rest. They've responded to each of their previous losses with a double-digit win in their next game and I look for them to do so again here.

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* PERS FAV. The Broncos have gotten off to a tough start. Playing at home, against a UC Riverside team which has been terrible on the road, provides the perfect opportunity to build some positive momentum. In four road games, the Highlanders have been outscored by an average score of 82-60. The Broncos actually do bring some positive momentum into tonight's game, as they just beat up on a weak team (Cal State East Bay) by a 75-50 margin. Delivering another big win against a Highlanders team which beat them by 14 last season figures to be more rewarding. Last season's game at Riverside came early on in the year and an inexperienced Broncos team was still learning how to play together. I believe that the Broncos are catching the Highlanders at the right time this season. UC Riverside, which lost by 42 points last time out and 18 the time before that, hasn't played for two weeks due to its exam break. Look for the Broncos to take advantage of the venue and schedule, avenging last season's loss in convincing fashion and improving to 6-2 ATS their last eight lined games, after failing to cover their previous three or more. 

I'm playing on MOREHEAD STATE 10* BEST BET. While the (Morehead State) Eagles have admittedly gotten off to a tough start, I believe this is a case of getting points with the better team. True, Eastern Washington has been winning while Morehead State has been losing. However, thats largely been a matter of the quality of opposition. The (Morehead State) Eagles, who have lost six straight, haven't lost seven in a row since 2006-2007. Preston Spralin, interim coach, noted "Its the great thing about college basketball, you don't have time to feel sorry for yourself ... " With an O/U line in the low 150s, this is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games on Tuesday's card. That figures to suit Morehead State just fine as its a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 150s. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played on the T-Wolves in their last game. However, that was a much different setup from this one. Not only were the T-Wolves playing at home, but they were getting double-digits by the oddsmaker. Also, they were catching their oponent playing the second of b2b games and in a four games in five nights situation. They covered, but still lost by eight. Things set up differently here. This time, while still underdogs, the T-Wolves aren't getting nearly as many points. They're also on the road, where they really struggle and facing a Chicago team which is well-rested. Note that the Bulls are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that the played with two day's rest in between games, 2-0 SU/ATS already this season. Those wins both came by double-digits, too. The T-Wolves, who have lost four straight and eight of nine overall, are 3-9 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 109.8 to 103.5 margin. The Hawks, on the other hand, have won seven of 10 at home, outscoring teams by a 105.6 to 99.6 average. I expect them to win by more than that margin here.

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* GOW. With a top 25 ranking and an undefeated record, South Carolina is certainly off to an impressive start. I believe that the battle-tested Pirates are favored for good reason though. The Pirates have indeed played a very tough non-conference schedule, traveling all over the place while taking on a number of top teams. By comparison, the Gamecocks have played all but one of their games at home. I expect the Pirates' experience playing away from home to serve them well for tonight's big game at MSG. It should certainly help matters that the Gamecocks will be without starting guard Sindari Thornwell, as he was suspended last week. As the Gamecocks haven't played since 12/4, this will be just their second game without him. While they were able to beat (they didn't cover) lowly FIU without him, Thornwell is a senior who leads the teams in both scoring and rebounding. He'll be missed against a Seton Hall team which averages better than 78 ppg. The Pirates, who have allowed just 57 points in consecutive games, are now 13-3 ATS (14-3 SU) the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Heat upset the Wizards at Washington last month. I expect the Wizards to return the favor tonight. The Heat entered the 11/19 meeting at Miami off a 23-point victory and off of three straight ATS wins. Things set up differently now as the Heat are off five straight losses and aren't quite as healthy as they were a month ago. Homecourt has not been an advantage to the Heat either; they're 5-9 on the road but just 2-8 here at Miami. (That includes a 0-4 SU/ATS mark as home underdogs of three or fewer points.)

The Wizards, who are a solid 50-38 ATS when playing with 'revenge' the past couple of seasons, entered the earlier meeting having lost three of their previous four. They're starting to finally play better though, having won three of their past four. As many of you know, I've successfully backed them twice in a row. This is another winnable game that they can't afford to squander and I'm going back to the well with them one more time. 

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S 10* PERS FAV. Given their inexperience and the fact that their star player has been out all season, the Anteaters got off to a pretty solid start. However, that inexperience is starting to catch up to them and I feel that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I said the same thing when they visited Arizona last Tuesday. That was the last time that the Anteaters faced a quality opponent and they got blown out by 22 points.

Off their first loss of the season, an unlikely 65-51 loss against Texas Arlington, the Gaels figure to be in a foul mood. With the exception of a 4-point road win at Dayton, every one of the Gaels' wins has been by double-digits this season. While UC Irvine averages 57.7 ppg on the road, St. Mary's averages 80.7 ppg here at home. Look for the Gaels to bounce back with a blowout win, improving to 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they'd been held to 60 or fewer points in their previous game.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Wizards have had their way with the Bucks here the past couple of seasons. With the schdule in their favor, I expect them to have the advantage again this evening. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Bucks were busy losing at Atlanta. Thats noteworthy as they haven't fared well when playing the second of b2b games. In fact, the Bucks are 0-3 SU/ATS in that sitiation so far this season, losing by 23 at Miami (also off a game vs. Atlanta) by 15 at Detroit and by 11 at Dallas. Three tries, three double-digit losses. Look for the Wizards, who know they'll have a home-and-home series with these same Bucks later this month, to take care of business on their home floor, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

'm playing on GEORGETOWN 10* ME. A poor start at the betting window for the Hoyas has resulted in a very low line for this afternoon's game at Maui. I believe that low line is providing us with excellent value. With their wins coming against Bucknell, Lehigh, Drexel and Delaware, none of them by more than 11 points, the Explorers have to defeat a strong opponent. Losing against Villanova was obviously expected and even the loss at Temple wasn't too bad. But this La Salle team also lost a home game against Texas Southern from the SWAC Conference. Though they haven't been covering, off three straight wins, the Hoyas have started to put it together. Note that all five of this season's victories have come by at least four points. I expect them to finish on top once again, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. I believe that there's a considerable talent gap between these teams. Playing on the "Big Ten Network" on a "stand-alone" Friday game (today's other two games both start earlier)  that Pitino will be happy to run up the score, showing the "world" that this year's team is the "real deal." Much stronger than last season, the Gophers are 8-1 so far.  They've beaten teams like Vanderbilt, Arkansas and St. John's. The Gophers, 3-0 SU/ATS against Sun Belt teams the past couple of seasons, are undefeated on this floor. Their lone loss came at Florida State. While the Gophers are allowing an average of only 62.2 ppg their last five, while holding opponents to a mere 35.9% from the field. Despite playing against lesser competition, the Eagles are allowing 74.2 ppg their last five, opposing teams hitting 47.3% of their shots. Look for the Gophers to flex their muscles in front of national audience, another dominant defensive effort leading to a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. I successfully played on the Pacers when these teams met way back on 10/26, just my second play of the season. While Indiana did win by nine, it was actually somewhat of a "fortunate" win. The Pacers had blown numerous opportunities to put the Mavs away and found themselves in a dogfight down the stretch. Fortunately, they pulled away for the cover in OT. While its true that the Mavs are dealing with some injuries at the moment, I like the fact that they're getting roughly as many points tonight as they were for that game at Indiana. Venue does matter to both these teams. Though the Mavs admittedly haven't been great here at Dallas, they do have three times as many victories here as they do on the road. Meanwhile, while they're a solid 8-4 at home, the Pacers are only 3-7 away from Indiana. The Pacers are playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip tonight. Tomorrow night, they host a Portland team which just hammered them last Wednesday, the first game of their trip. That being the case, it may be easy to look past Dallas, a team they've handled. While they have lost b2b games here, the Mavs had won two of their previous three home games. Given the fact that they get outscored by an average of 115.7 to 105.7 on the road, just asking the Pacers to win is asking a lot. I'll gladly take the generous points but I like the Mavs' chances of winning outright. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Nuggets. Last night, they fell behind big (68-52 at halftime) at Brooklyn, fought hard to get back, but ultimately lost. While not all the Nuggets' starters logged big minutes - due a frustrated Malone mixing up the lineups - it was still the type of game that figures to be difficult to immediately bounce back from. Not only will the Nuggets be playing the second of b2b games but they're also playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. The Wizards, who had last night off, have played one less game during that seven game period and that figures to make a difference down the stretch tonight. Note that the Nuggets are 0-3 the last three times (10-31 L41) that they played the second of b2b games. All three of those losses came by a minimum of seven points and they came by an average of 13. Off a loss to the Magic last time out and falling further in the standings, the Wizards can't afford to squander this very winnable game. I expect their best effort and look for them to improve to 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S 10* PERS FAV. These schools are separated by only about 15 miles. Dating back to 1909, they've faced each other 87 times. The Red Storm are a commanding 25-3 the last 28 of those and 65-22 overall. Last year, however, was different. While St John's was inexperienced, the Rams had an experienced team, one which was sick of losing to its "rival." The Rams didn't just earn a rare win in the series, they hammered the Red Storm by a 73-57 margin. The fact that Neubauer left the Rams' starters in and continued to play "pressure defense," after the outcome was already decided, didn't sit too well with Chris Mullin.

While Marcus LoVett appears unlikely to go, playing at home, the revenge-minded Red Storm should have more than enough to take care of a Fordham team which isn't nearly as strong as last season. The Rams have lost three straight, those losses coming against the likes of Texas Arlington, Sacred Heart and Harvard. They managed a mere 52 points last time out and have been outscored by an average of 80-55.5 in two road games (0-2 SU/ATS) overall. The Red Storm got off to an ugly start but have started to play better. They're off b2b wins, averaging 85.5 points in those victories. Payback time. 

I'm playing on LA 10* ESPN MAIN EVENT. This is the first of four meetings between these teams this season. Both teams will be hungry. The Warriors want to prove they're still the best in the west while the Clippers want to prove that this year will be different. The last meeting between these teams here at LA saw the Warriors, who were laying -4 points, win by three. Another game decided in the final possession won't surprise. As good as the Warriors have been on the road - and they have been outstanding - the Clippers have arguably been very nearly as good here at LA. GS has outscored teams by 12.7 ppg on the road. LA has outscored teams by 12.6 ppg here at home. While the Warriors are obviously very dangerous offensively, the Clippers are among the best defensive teams in the league. Note that while the Warriors are just 5-4 ATS in road games with an O/U line of 210 or greater, the Clippers are 2-0 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The schedule sets up favorably for the Clippers. They've had the past two days off and they also get the next two off. The Warriors, on the other hand, have had one day off and play tomorrow. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on SMU 10* GOW. The Horned Frogs come in with a perfect record, undefeated under coach Jamie Dixon. However, I believe the Mustangs are favored for good reason, as I expect TCU to suffer its first loss. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Mustangs are 37-3 SU on this floor, 27-3 SU in "lined" games. That includes a modest 3-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range and a perfect 5-0 ATS mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. They're undefeated at home so far this season, outscoring teams by an average score of 74 to 53.6 here.

The Frogs, on the other hand, are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're just 4-18 SU on the road overall. They've only played one "true" road game this season and that resulted in an ATS loss at UNLV. The Frogs deserve plenty of credit for their perfect start. Beating Washington and winning at UNLV are both worthy accomplishments. That said, this is the Frogs toughest test yet. They've got a number of freshman in the lineup (even Dixon has acknowledged the team is a work in progress) and I don't feel they're going to be quite up for it. Look for SMU, which has added forward Semi Ojeleye (transfer from Duke) who is averaging a team best 17.2 points to go along with 7.7 rebounds, to win its fifth straight in this series, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Hornets were embarrassed by these same Pistons here just over a week ago. Tonight should provide an excellent opportunity for some payback. For the game here last Tuesday, the Hornets were off a game the previous night and playing their fourth game in the past five days. A brutal scheduling spot. The Pistons, who had enjoyed two straight days off, came in well-rested and routed them by a 112-89 margin. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, while the Pistons were busy beating Chicago, the Hornets had yesterday off. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Pistons will also be playing their third game in the past four days. While Reggie Jackson may not play in the b2b spot for the Pistons, the Hornets hope to get Marvin Williams back, which would essentially put them at full strength. Even with last week's win here, the Pistons are still only 4-8 SU/ATS on the road. Look for the revenge-minded Hornets, who can climb back above .500 here with a win, to get some payback, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. It would be easy enough to make a case for the Jazz; admittedly they've been playing better than the Suns. A big part of beating the NBA is about taking advantage of favorable scheduling and/or "emotional" situations. In this case, I really like how things set up for the visiting Suns. The Jazz are off a fairly hard fought game at LA last night, Hayward, Gobert and co. logging relatively heavy (36 and 39) minutes. Note that Hill has been out and likely remains a gametime decision. Also, the Jazz have continued to play without Burks and now Favors.

While the Jazz have actually been pretty good when playing their second game in two nights, they'll also be playing their third game in four nights here. The abscence of Favors figures to be magnified. Additionally, they've got a big game against Golden State on deck. That being the case, it should be easy to look past the "lowly Suns," who are off a blowout loss to those same Warriors and who the Jazz swept last season. That'll prove costly though. The Suns are well-rested, having had the past two days off. They're also hungry to bounce back from the embarrassing loss against Golden State.

While the Jazz are 7-10-1 ATS their last 18 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, the Suns are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were off a double-digit loss and 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they gave up 105 or more points in their last game. Already 3-0 ATS this season, when listed as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range, I like the Suns to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover.

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND. I believe that the Monarchs are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rams are off a tough loss against rival Providence, their second straight 3-point loss. Both came on the road though. They're back home, where they're still perfect (4-0) on the season, and I expect them to be in an angry mood.

While Rhode Island fans surely would have liked to beat the Friars, I agree with coach Dan Hurley that there's no reason to panic. Hurley had this to say: "We lost two tough road games against two pretty good teams in tough venues in games seven and eight of the nonconference. We've just got to have a little perspective and not lose our minds."

The Monarchs aren't slouches by any means, as they're a strong defensive team. That said, they only score 61.8 ppg (61.4 on the road) and they're up against a Rams team which is averaging 88 ppg on this floor. While the Rams may not hit that average tonight, its still going to be tough for the Monarchs to keep up. The Monarchs beat the Rams, at Old Dominion, last December. I expect the Rams, 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range, to return the favor, in convincing fashion, on Tuesday evening.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* GOW. While I successfully played against the Bucks in their last game, I believe that they're offering excellent value tonight. Last time out, given the situation, I felt that the Bucks were laying a few too many points as they were favored by 10 against a revenge-minded Brooklyn team. Though the Bucks failed to cover (barely) they still won by nine points. That marked their fourth straight victory. One of those was a 118-101 win over Cleveland, too. The Bucks had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. Outscoring opponents by a 109.4 to 103.9 margin on this floor this season, they're going to come in full of confidence. The Spurs are on an extended hot streak and are off b2b victories. However, it should be noted that neither of those victories came by more than seven points. They beat a depleted Dallas team by only seven and then only squeaked by the Wizards by two. Note that Parker didn't play in either of those games, after tweaking his leg against the Magic on Tuesday. (Popovich has called him day-to-day.) Unlike the Bucks, the Spurs play (at Minnesota) tomorrow. That being the case, although its still early in the season, you never know when Popovich might surprise by resting a player. While we obiously won't count on that, I don't expect that we'll need to. Note that the last time that the Spurs played the front end of b2b games, they got blown out at Orlando. The Bucks are 4-2 ATS against teams from the West and I like their chances of AT LEAST another cover again tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The home team won and covered both meetings last season. The Blazers were laying -6.5 for the game here and they won by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. The Blazers know that they have a difficult stretch coming up. After this game, they hit the road for five games. Then, they're back home for just one game (OKC) before hitting the road again. In other words, they absolutely need to take care of business here at home, before they go. Off a 22-point win over the Pacers last time out, Portland has now won two of three. The Heat have already had a successful road trip and may already be looking forward to getting home. They're 1-3 ATS their last four off an "upset win" and 0-4 ATS the last four times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers, who had two days off before their blwout of the Pacers, have again had two days off. They'll be fresh and I look for them to be hungry. The Blazers are averaging 118.4 ppg their last five and 113.3 ppg (47.1%) at home on the season. I think that the Heat, who average only 96.9 ppg (42.8%) on the road, are going to have trouble keeping up. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps have had a great SU record at home over the years but have struggled at the betting window. Here's a case, however, where a SU win is likely also going to result in an ATS cover. The Terps have won four of five here this season, outscoring opponents by a 72.4 to 60.6 margin here. They're 38-3 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. While they did drop their last game here, it was their fifth game in 10 days and appeared flat, as a result. They've had some more time to recover now and I expect a much better effort. Led by point-guard Jawun Evans, the Cowboys have wins over Georgetown and UConn to their credit, along with a blowout loss vs. UNC, so they're certainly not slouches. That said, this is their first "true road game," and they're just 4-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. This hasn't been a good role for them over the years either, as they're just 8-21-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick) of three or fewer points. Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon described Thursday's practice as: "... among the best of the season." I expect that to carry over into tonight's game, homecourt ultimately proving the difference. Maryland bounces back. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* BEST BET. This is the biggest number that the Bucks have been asked to lay this season; I feel it will prove to be too high. The Bucks are off three straight wins, most recently beating these same Nets at Brooklyn on Thursday night. Playing with such recent "revenge" should provide the Nets, 2-0 ATS the last two times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, with some added motivation. While the Bucks' 3-game winning streak has helped in driving up the line, note that Milwaukee is an ugly 2-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after three or more consecutive SU victories. Going back further finds the Bucks at a money-burning 48-88-7 ATS their last 143 in that situation. The Nets played the Bucks tough here earlier in the season, losing by only two. Look for them to give the Bucks all they can handle once again here.

I'm playing on DENVER 10* PERS FAV. This is a very tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Last night, they left it all on the floor at Golden State, ultimately winning in double-OT. Harden played a whopping 45 mins. Anderson (44) and Ariza (42) were both up there, too. After logging that many minutes, playing in the high altitude of Denver figures to be tougher than normal. In addition to the back-to-back spot, note that the Rockets will also be playing their third game in the past four nights. Meanwhile, the Nuggets had last night off and have played just one game since 11/28. Needless to say, they should have the fresher legs tonight.

The Nuggets have fared well against high-scoring, "defensively-challenged" teams like Houston. They're 6-2 ATS against teams that allow 99+ points per game and 7-3 ATS against teams which score 99+ per game. The Nuggets, 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were home favorites of three or fewer points, had their way with the Rockets last season, going 3-0 SU/ATS. With the schedule in their favor and knowing that they badly could use a win before hitting the road for six games after this, I expect more of the same tonight.

I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. As some of you will likely recall, I successfully played on the Tide in their last game and they rewarded me with a 76-46 blowout win. As impressive as that victory was, winning at Texas is an entirely different deal from playing at home against Charleston Southern. While they've got some more experience than last season, the Tide have yet to play a "true" road game; I expect that they'll be dealing with some more growing pains away from home this season. They've won just nine of 25 times on the road the past couple of years and are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to +6 range, during that time. Off three straight losses, the Longhorns are going to be in a foul mood. They've won 30 of 39 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. During that time, they were 3-1 SU/ATS after failing to cover their previous three games. I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* MAIN EVENT. I like the Cyclones and was really impressed with their effort in the recent AdvoCare Invitational tournament, as they played hard the entire way. Some of you will recall that I backed them in the finals of that tournament. Facing a strong Gonzaga team, the Cyclones found themselves trailing by 15 at halftime. However, they didn't quit. I included a quote in my analysis of that ISU/Gonzaga game from an ISU player (Naz Mitrou) stating that "This tournament means everything." The Cyclones played like it. They stormed back and earned the 'cover,' eventually losing 73-71.

While the Cyclones have had a few days off to recover, I still believe thats going to prove to be a difficult loss to immediately bounce back from. When a game "means everything" and you fight so hard, only to come up just short, that takes a toll.

Don't expect the Bearcats to show them any sympathy as they've also been playing great basketball. They've responded to their lone loss - against a good Rhode Island team - with three conesecutive double-digit victories. Full of confidence, they're looking for a "statement win" here. They also haven't forgotten a very close (81-79) loss at the hands of these same Cyclones, at Cincy, last season. While it appears the Bearcats may not have Clark, I believe they've got more than enough to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. While most knew it was going to be a long season, Dallas fans probably didn't expect it to be this bad. Indeed, the Mavs (3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS) are a mess right now, a shell of the team that they once were. Give them credit for fighting hard against San Antonio last night but expect it to catch up with them tonight. This will be the third time that the Mavs will play their second game in two nights. The first two times saw them lose by 29 combined points, while going 0-2 SU/ATS. Don't expect the Hornets to show them any mercy. Charlotte lost last time out. The Hornets were off a game the previous night though and playing their fourth game in five nights. Having won by 19 the previous night, we can forgive the last loss, or at least explain it. While the Mavs, who will be without Nowitzki and Barea, are 1-5 ATS against teams from the East, the Hornets are a solid 4-2 ATS against teams from the West. With the schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Hornets to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* PERS FAV. After winning three straight to start the season, including a fairly impressive victory at Iowa, the Pirates dropped two of three at the Advocare Invitational, failing to cover in all three games. Losses came against Florida and Stanford. They're back home now though and they've had some time off (last played on Sunday) to recover and prepare to get back to business. Note that they've won their two games on this floor by scores of 91-70 and 82-58. On the other hand, Columbia just lost a tough (88-86) one against Hoffstra on Tuesday and hasn't had much time to recover from it. Note that Columbia lost by 20 at St Joseph's, the only other time it faced a decent team on the road. Yes, its true that the Pirates have failed to cover a few in a row. That shouldnt prevent us from pulling the trigger though. Note that they're 3-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover three straight. The Pirates are 12-3 SU and 10-3 ATS their past 15 in December. Look for them to start the month off in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Anteaters hammered the Broncos last season. Playing at home, I expect the Broncos to return the favor tonight. While the Broncos are a relatively experienced team, the Anteaters lost the majority of the players who were around for last season's 79-61 beatdown. The lone returning starter was Luke Nelson. However, he has yet to play a minute, as coach Russ Turner has been extra cautious with his star.

Turner recently had this to say of Nelson: "It's a tough deal because he’s got a hamstring issue, which is difficult to define. I feel like he is close to playing. But until he is 100 percent, I'm going to be cautious with that, and that's because the conference race and the conference tournament specifically are so much more vital than the games that we're playing now."

In the (unlikely) event that Nelson does return, he can't be expected to be dominate in his first game back - and the return of a team's star, after he's been gone for a long time, often initially causes the other players to "stand around" a little, or at least it takes some time for the lineup to adjust. Note that Nelson led the way for the Anteaters in last year's win over Santa Clara, going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc with 20 overall points and six asssists.

Nelson's absence and the Anteaters' overall inexperience is starting to catch up with them. Losing by six against East Tenn. State last time out wasn't too bad. However, they were hammered by 54-37 by a weak Wisconsin-Milwaukee team before that. (The only other team that Wisc-Milw has beaten thus far is the "Milwaukee School Of Engineering" and every other game has resulted in a double-digit loss.)

The Broncos have also lost two in a row. However, those losses came against Vanderbilt and Arizona (big difference from Wisc-Milwaukee!) and both were by 10 points or less. The Broncos won their last two games on this floor by double-digits. I look for them to rise to the occasion and avenge last year's loss.

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOW. I played against the Lakers last night and they got destroyed at New Orleans. Now, they're at (arguably) an even more difficult venue, while playing the second of b2b games. (The Bulls are 4-1 SU/ATS here, outscoring teams by an average of 109 to 98.4.) Note that the Lakers have just five wins the last 37 times that they played the second of b2b games. The last two times that they were in that situation they lost by scores of 149-106 and 125-99.

In addition to playing in a b2b spot, the Lakers will also be playing their third game in the past four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. Thats a pretty gruelling stretch, made worse by the fact that they're missing D'Angelo Russell right now. Also, Nick Young who provides valuable minutes off the bench and was even more important after Russell went down, left last night's game and needed help getting to the locker-room. While his status isn't entirely clear until after today's MRI, it'd surprise me if he played.

Regardless of whether the Lakers have Young for this game or not, the well-rested Bulls are more than capable of delivering a blowout. They already won by eight at LA last week and the previous two meetings both resulted in double-digit wins. Speaking of double-digits wins, this will be just the Bulls' third home game since 11/5. Both previous ones resulted in double-digit wins, the Bulls winning those two games by 43 combined points.

With an O/U line currently sitting at 212, the pace figures to favor the Bulls. They're 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when doing so at home. With the schedule in their favor, I'm anticipating another beatdown. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Lakers embarrassed the Pelicans here earlier this month. I say New Orleans gets some payback tonight. While the Lakers were healthy, the Pelicans were still without Jrue Holliday for the 11/12 meeting. It also didn't help matters that Davis went down and left the game game at a critical time. (While Davis did return, the Lakers went on a 14-0 run while he was out.) As for Holliday, he's playing now, with some games under his belt, and that makes this N.O. team a lot better.  A couple of recent road losses notwithstanding, the Pelicans are playing well right now, winning four of their last six. Since the loss to LA, they've gone a perfect 4-0 here, beating Boston, Portland, Charlotte and Minnesota. They won those four games by a combined 39 points, nearly 10 points per game. This time, its the Lakers who are dealing with a signficant injury in the backcourt, as D'Angelo Russel has gone down. He was +13 with 22 points, six assists while adding a couple of rebounds and a block in the earlier meeting. Note that Randle who led the Lakers with 11 rebounds and a +17 plus/minus mark in that game is also currently questionable. He was limited to non-contact work during yesterday's practice and will likely be a gametime decision. Either way, with the Lakers are just 4-9 ATS (3-10 SU) their past 13 off a double-digit win and the Pelicans at 20-12 ATS their past 32 off an "upset" loss, I say its payback time. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10* BEST BET. Its true that Butler has played a much tougher schedule, as Utah has been beating up on cupcakes. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs deserve a lot of credit for winning the Continental Las Vegas Invitational. Beating Arizona in the finals was no small feat. However, they may well be in 'letdown mode' here and have had little time to recover. Either way, I expect the Bulldogs, who are still getting used to the six new players in their lineup, to stumble against a hungry, undefeated, and prepared Utes squad. Note that Butler is just 2-4 ATS the last six times it was listed as a road favorite of three or fewer points.

Utah coach Krystkowiak has been preparing for this game, working in concepts into practice to help against Butler (whom Utah coaches saw play last season in Puerto Rico) without specifically telling players. "This is for the Butler game." Krystkowiak commented: "A lot of that is built into our practices without talking about Butler." This is the first of a home-and-home series between these schools; next year they'll square off at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. With the schedule in their favor, look for the Utes to "hold serve" this year. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. Both these clubs have struggled to start the season. While the teams are much different, both bring similar stats to the table. The Wizards are 5-10. The Kings are 6-10. The Wizards score 102.1 points and allow 105.1. The Kings score 102.5 ppg and allow 105.5. While contending in the West is likely (again) going to be difficult for the Kings, the Wizards are fully capable of righting the ship and returning to the playoffs in the East. That said, they need to take care of business at home against teams like the one they'll face tonight.

As you likely recall, Wall and Cousins played together at Kentucky. About six weeks ago now, the two stars squared off against each other at their old stomping grounds, as these teams played an exhibition game against each other at Rupp Arena. Cousins and the Kings finished on top, 124-119. With this evening's "rematch" being played at Washington, I expect Wall and co. to return the favor.

Washington is off a loss last time out. That was against the Spurs though and they were playing the second of b2b games. Prior to that, they'd won back-to-back games and three of four. The Wizards have been a little cautious with limiting the minutes of their starters on both the front and back end of b2b situations. They didn't play last night though and they also get tomorrow off. While Cousins will obviously present a difficult matchup, Wall (and Beal) should enjoy a considerable edge in the backcourt. Note that the Kings are already 0-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.

The home team easily won and covered both meetings last season, the Wizards winning 113-99 in the game here at Washington. Knowing they hit the road for three games after this, including tough games at OKC and SA to start the trip, look for the Wizards to up their game and come away with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. While the Pacers will be without Paul George, I believe that they're offering excellent value here. Obviously, George is a great player and he makes the Pacers a much better team. That said, they've been pretty inconsistent and have under-achieved to start the season. In that type of situation, learning how to play and win without its star can often help a team. While the competition (Nets) was admittedly on the weak side, the Pacers played great without George last time out, earning a 21-point win over Brooklyn, a win which should provide them with plenty of confidence. Coach Nate McMillan said this after that win: "Tonight is what I feel we can become. I told the guys we can't go back. We can't keep going back and forth. We've got to build off of this and establish our identity." The Clippers proved beatable last time out, stumbling at Detroit. Knowing that this is their last home game for awhile and that they'll face these same Clippers again on their upcoming road trip, I expect the Pacers' best effort and for that to result in AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Playing at MSG, the Knicks beat the Hornets in OT yesterday. With tonight's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to return the favor. In three b2b situations this season, the Knicks have allowed 118, 118 and 119 points. Not surprisingly, they were 0-3 SU/ATS in those games. All three losses came by a minimum of seven points, two of them by double-digits. They're now just 11-30 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. This season, the Knicks are only 1-5 on the road, allowing an ugly 112.5 ppg. The Hornets, 7-4 ATS when laying points this season, are 48-38-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* GOW. By coincidence, last "Black Friday," I also released my NBA "Game Of The Week." It also involved the Clippers. Only last year, I was playing on the Clippers (they won 111-90, capping a 7-0 day) and this year I'm playing against them. Last season, the Clippers were playing at home and facing a New Orleans team which was playing without Anthony Davis. Yet, they were still only laying -6 or -6.5 points. This year, they're on the road against (arguably) a tougher opponent, yet they're laying a similar number. I believe thats providing excellent value with the capable home underdog. I backed the Pistons in their last game and they rewarded me with a 23-point beating of Miami. That blowout win should provide some confidence here. Knowing that the Clippers already hammered them at LA - and also knowing that they take to the road after this - should provide the Pistons with some added motivation. They're now 6-2 SU/ATS at home, outscoring teams by a dominating 101.2 to 88.1 margin here. With the Clippers an ugly 9-22 ATS the last 31 times (3-10 ATS L13) that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. These teams met last Thanksgiving Day, Arizona closing as a 24-point favorite. Santa Clara very nearly scored the upset though, the Cats ultimately winning 75-73. As per usual, the Wildcats are tough. However, I believe the Broncos are capable of providing another "Thanksgiving scare." The Broncos enter today's game with a modest 3-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record. That shouldn't scare us off them though, considering that they were 0-5 SU/ATS when they entered last season's near upset. As of this writing, the O/U line is 139.5 across the board. Thats a little higher than last seasons but still in the same "range." Note that the Broncos are 5-1 ATS their last six neutral court games where the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5 while the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS the last six times that they played a neutral court game with a total in that range. While they're 2-2 ATS thus far this season, November hasn't been kind to the Cats' bettors in recent years; they're just 6-11 ATS in November the past 2+ seasons. The Broncos have thrived in neutral court settings and are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons as neutral court underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. Last season's game is going to give them some confidence coming in; I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on PURDUE 10* GOW. The Boilermakers received a wake-up call in their last game and I expect it to work in their favor here. Favored by 18.5 points, the Boilermakers found themselves trailing lowly Georgia State by double-digits (56-44) with only 7:08 to play. While Georgia State deserves some credit, Purdue was clearly in 'letdown mode' from having just suffered an emotional 79-76 loss against Villanova in its previous game. The Boilermakers didn't quit though. Rather, they put together an awesome 20-0 run to end and win the game. I expect them to carry that positive momentum into this evening's "Cancun Challenge" contest. While the Aggies are worthy of respect, we shouldn't make too much out of their undefeated record. Their toughest opponent was UC Irvine, which played without its best player. Through four games, the Aggies are allowing just 61 ppg. That shouldn't phase Purdue though. The Boilermakers are 18-7 ATS their last 25 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. During that stretch, Purdue is also 16-7 ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points and 9-3 ATS in all tournament games, 1-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite in the -9.5 to -12 range. I believe that we'll see the Purdue team that played so well against Villanova (and the one that closed out last game on a 20-0 run) not the one that struggled through the first part of last game. That'll be enough to lead to a double-digit win against an Aggie team which has yet to face this level of opposition.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. Davis is obviously a dominant force. However, the Hawks still have the more complete team. While they lost at MSG last time out, the Hawks are a dominant 6-1 SU/ATS here at Atlanta. They're outscoring teams by "double-digits" here, an average score of 112.4 to 102.4. The Pelicans are off b2b solid wins. However, those both came at New Orleans.They're only 1-5 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 100 to 92.7. Off their "upset" of Charlotte, note that the Pelicans are a dismal 12-26-1 ATS (12-27 SU) the last 39 times that they won outright as an underdog, in their previous game. They lost by seven against Orlando and by 27 against the Lakers so far in that situation this season. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 24-16-1 ATS (27-14 SU) off a SU loss in a game where they were favored. Knowing they hit the road for five games after this, look for the Hawks to bounce back and take care of business at home tonight.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Its been a bad start to the road trip for the Blazers and with more difficult games to follow, they know that they need to take care of business this afternoon. I expect them to do just that. The Nets are coming off a difficult road trip of their own. While they've admittedly been much better at home, playing the first game back from a long trip can often be challenging. The Blazers are 8-5 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, one of their better roles away from Portland. They were laying -4 points here last season and won by 12. I'm expecting them to bounce back with a similar effort this afternoon. 

I'm playing on PACIFIC 10* BEST BET. Some of you may recall that I successfully backed the Anteaters a couple of games ago. Listed as small favorites, they rewarded me with a solid 73-58 victory. The Anteaters followed that up with another well-played game, as they took Cal to OT. True, they caught the Bears without a few regulars. Stil, they were huge (+16) underdogs and to get to OT was impressive. That said, I expect that game to catch up to them here. The Anteaters had a chance to win that one in regulation and couldn't capitalize. The thought of 'what could have been' figures to linger in the lockerroom. The continued absence of star Luke Evans (hamstring) doesn't help matters either. They keep listing him as questionable but he has yet to play. In the unlikely event he did play tonight, off an extended absence, he can't be expected to perform miracles in his first game back. The Tigers have had a couple of extra day's rest and come in off a momentum-building 18-point win, the first victory of the "Stoudamire era." Note that last season's meeting was decided by three points and that the Tigers are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* BEST BET. Last night's game at Boston didn't end up proving to be too taxing for the Warriors. However, they still had to play. They'll be playing their third road game in the past four days here, the first of those (at Toronto) a considerably tougher game than last night's. They'll be taking on a rested Milwaukee team which upset them here last season - you remember that game - and which comes in believing that it can do the same thing this season. (The Bucks also covered at GS last season, too.) The O/U line for last year's game here was 'only' 205. At 220, or higher, tonight's is considerably higher. That should suit the Bucks just fine. They're 7-2-1 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion once again, earning at least another cover. 

I'm playing on Texas A@M 10* PERS FAV. Both teams are 2-0, each beating up on some weaker opposition. With this game being played at College Station, the first time that the Trojans have played here since 1936, I expect the Aggies to have the advantage. USC is playing its first true road game here and road wins have been pretty tough to come by in recent seasons. The Trojans were 3-7 on the road last season (5-16 L2 years) and they're an ugly 20-71 on the road the last eight seasons. Meanwhile, the Aggies are now 33-5 on this floor the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 2-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Going back further finds them at 19-7-1 ATS their last 27 in that role. Its also worth noting that the Aggies are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Trojans are still pretty young. Look for this trip to prove to be a rude awakening. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers took advantage of a short-handed Wizards team last night, earning a rare win. Don't expect a repeat performance. Off their recent win over Indiana, the 76ers also were forced to play the next day. The result? A 21-point loss. (They also lost by 16 the only other previous time that they played the second of b2b games this season.) Now, in addition to the b2b situation, the 76ers will be forced to play their fifth game in the past seven nights. I expect it to catch up with them. The Wolves couldnt quite get past Charlotte last time out. However, a 26-point win over the Lakers, in their previous game, shows that they're capable of "winning big." With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to do just that, moving to 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* TV MAIN EVENT. As you likely know, Providence lost Chris Dunn to the NBA. A 2-time Big East Player Of The Year, he was selected fifth overall by the T-Wolves. The Friars lost Ben Bentil to the NBA, selected 51st overall by the Celtics. Those are big shoes to fill. As some of you also know, I successfully backed the Friars in their first game. I noted that I thought they still had some decent talent and depth, that they were tough to beat at home and that they were going to be highly motivated to show they could win without Dunn. That was a home game against Vermont though. Now, they're on the road against Ohio State. With a victory under their belt, the desire to prove that they can win without Dunn may not be as strong. The Buckeyes have yet to cover but are already 2-0 on the season. They'll be relishing the chance for a big win over a team from the Big East. The Buckeyes dropped some early non-conf. games last season and have learned their lesson from it. Matta called them out for being flat in their opener. I expect them to respond with a far more focused effort here, en route to a win and cover. 

'm playing on UNLV 10* PERS FAV. The Highlanders have some quality players, as Johnson and Thames are both capable scorers. However, I believe they're coming to the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rebels are going to be in a fould mood, after getting upset by South Alabama. Its true that UNLV has slipped since its "the glory days." Its also true that this is a fairly young team, one which is dealing with some early injury adversity. They're a young team with talent though, one which will be determined to get Menzies his first win as coach of UNLV. The defensive effort was their in the first game, but they were lacking in offensive execution. I expect that game to serve as a good learning tool. They're also likely not going to need as many to win against the Highlanders. UC Riverside scored only 55 points in its loss at Portland. UNLV won by 11 at UC Riverside last season, covering as 6-poiint favorites. Including that result, the Highlanders are a dismal 2-10 ATS (0-12 SU) their last 12 against teams from the Mountain West. Rebels roll.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Cavs are playing well these days. I look for them to stumble tonight though. The Pacers got back on track in a big way last time out. I expect them to carry them momentum into tonight's big game against the Cavs. While its been a slow start, I still believe that this is a very capable Indiana team, one of the few teams capable of beating the Cavs. Tonight, they're catching Cleveland off a hard-fought game vs. Toronto last night, the team that took them to the brink in last year's Eastern Conference Finals and playing their third game in the past four days. The Pacers believe so, too. The purpose of their offseason moves was to give them a team that could compete with Cleveland in the playoffs. Note that the Cavs are an ugly 7-16-1 ATS the last 24 times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that stretch, the Pacers were 5-3 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Cavs. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. While they've failed to cover recently, the Blazers have still won five of their last six. This should be a good spot to break through with a win AND cover. The Bulls have played well at home. However, they're only 2-3 on the road and have yet to win at a venue as difficult as this one. Chicago's two road wins came at Brooklyn and Miami, against a pair of sub-500 teams. When they stepped up in class to play stronger teams on the road (Atlanta, Indiana, Boston) the Bulls lost all three times. Each loss came by a minimum of seven points and by an average of 11. While I respect the Bulls, I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference, the Blazers covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UC Irvine 10* PERS FAV. Both teams got hammered in their opener. Both will be hungry to bounce back. One could make a case that the Jackrabbits were 'better' in their blowout loss, as it came against a much stronger opponent. They lost at Cal while the Anteaters were beaten by Utah State. I believe that b2b home games are going to serve the Anteaters better than b2b road games will treat the Jackrabbits though. While South Dakota State is below .500 on the road, the Anteaters, 4-1 ATS their last five off a double-digit loss, are 21-6 at home the past 2+ seasons. The Anteaters played without their star Luke Nelson in the opening loss. They're hoping to have him back for tonight's game. Either way, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* PERS FAV. The Pacers figure to be in a foul mood here. After getting upset by the 76ers in OT, they lost to Boston last time out. They've had a day off to recover and stew in their anger though and I expect them to come out swinging tonight. They catch the Magic off a hard fought upset win at OKC yesterday and playing their third game in the past four days. While they've had trouble on the road, prior to the Boston loss, the Pacers had yet to taste defeat at home. They're still 4-1 here, averaging greater than 115 ppg on this floor. Averaging only 93.6 ppg their past five outings, the Magic figure to have trouble keeping up. The Pacers are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in this series. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This was already going to be a tough matchup for Yale. While you may recall that the Bulldogs made it to the NCAA Tournament season, the first time they'd been there since 1962. This year's team lost all but one starter from that team though. Fortunately, for Yale fans, their lone returning starter is Makai Mason. If you remember Yale playing in the tournament, you'll remember Mason. He was the guy that scored 31 points in the first round upset of Baylor. Unfortunately, at least for Yale fans, Mason broke his foot in a recent scrimmage and won't be available for here. For a team that was relying on him more than ever, thats a devasating blow. While the Huskies also lost some key players from last year's team, the cupboard isn't as bare. They've still got a couple of starters from last year along with guard Markelle Fultz, considered to be one of the top freshmen in the country. Look for the Huskies to take advantage of their "Mason-less" guests, starting the Fultz era off with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. Both teams played yesterday. The Lakers beat the Pelicans while the T-Wolves lost against the Clippers. The fact that the T-Wolves didn't have to travel in between games should work in their favor, in this b2b spot. Also, with the T-Wolves having lost last night, they should be a little hungrier than their guests. A closer look at the scheduling for both teams shows that the Wolves had two day's off, prior to last night's loss. On the other hand, the Lakers had only one day off, prior to last night's win. That means that LA will be playing its third game in four nights here while that will not be the case for the T-Wolves. The Wolves played arguably their best game of the season, the only previous time that they played the second of b2b games, a 123-107 destruction of Orlando. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight, as they bounce back with another win and cover.

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* SPECIAL. As evidenced by their lofty rankings, both these teams are going to be good this year. However, the Jayhawks have the higher ranking for a reason and they should have the advantage out of the gate. The Jayhawks, who added the nation's top recruit in Josh Jackson, will be looking to tie tie UCLA's all-time Division I record of 13 consecutive conference championships this season and there's little reason to doubt that they'll do it. Bill Self had this to say of this year's team: "I love our experience. I love our depth. And I think our young kids could be our most talented. There's no reason not to be optimistic." All Big-Ten point guard Yogi Ferrell has moved on for the Hoosiers. That's significant as he'd been running the offense for a long time. While the Hoosiers had a strong season last year, it started off with a 1-2 record in Maui. They're on a different island (Oahu) this time but I expect them to again get off to a tough start. Look for this loaded Jayhawks team to get off to a winning start, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* GOM. I successfully played against the Lakers in their last game. Favored against the Mavs, the young Lakers got blown out, losing by 12 points. Their 'winning streak' snapped, I look for the Lakers to struggle again tonight. The Kings come in healthy and off back-to-back wins. They got Collison back from an 8-game suspension last time out and he gave them 28 minutes. While he didn't start that game and may not again tonight, he makes their backcourt significantly stronger. Of course, Cousins is the straw that stirs the drink, as he does it all for this team. The Kings beat the Lakers all four games last season and Cousins led the way. In those four games, the Kings' star averaged 27.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks, all while shooting better than 50% (50.8%) from the field and hitting 83.3% from the line.

Last game was the first time that the Kings were really favored all season, as they've had a fairly difficult opening schedule. Their first game was on the road. Then, they hosted the Spurs for their home opener. They won a pick'em game against the T-Wolves in their next game here and that was followed by a 5-game road trip. They struggled on the trip but closed it out with a win at Toronto, which is no small feat. Finally, they got an 'easier' game, as they returned home to host the Pelicans. They took care of business in that one, winning by eight. That means that they're 2-1 at home with the lone loss coming against San Antonio. Needless to say, while they do have some quality young players, the Lakers, who are 1-3 on the road, aren't in the class of the Spurs and they still don't have an answer for the Kings' big man. Look for Cousins and co. to take advantage of the winnable game, improving to 9-6-1 (11-5 SU) the last 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. While the T-Wolves certainly have some talented players, they're in a bit of a funk at the moment. Last night, they lost at Brooklyn. That dropped them to 0-3 SU/ATS their last three and 1-5 SU/ATS on the season. They have yet to win on the road. Given that poor start and the fact that they're in a back-to-back spot, one might expect the T-Wolves to be a bigger underdog. The Magic don't get much respect though and thats kept this line relatively low. Note that Orlando is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it was favored at home by three or fewer points. The Magic have won back-to-back games on this floor. They're 2-1 SU/ATS here on the season In last season's game against the T-Wolves here, they erased a double-digit halftime defiicit to win by three. Later, they'd go on to also win by three at Minnesota. While they failed to cover in the first of those, as they were favored by five, the Magic are a healthy 15-5 ATS their last 20 against teams from the Northwest, 37-23-1 ATS their last 61 against teams from the West overall. I like the addition of Ibaka to this Magic team, combining with the likes of Vucevic and Gordon. All three are averaging double-digits in points thus far, while Fournier leads the team with 17.4 ppg. With the schedule and venue in their favor and catching their guests in a slump, I look for the Magic to win their sixth straight in this series, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. The Lakers have been a profitable team at the betting window thus far and they enter tonight's game on a nice roll. I successfully played on them in their only 'non-cover' (blowout loss at OKC on 10/30) though and I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them once again. Note that LA remains a poor 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the last 10 times that it was off a double-digit win. During that stretch, the Lakers were also 0-3 SU/ATS after winning their previous three games. 'It wasn't easy but the Mavs got themselves on track last time out, earning an 86-75 victory over the Bucks. One wouldn't know it by the final score but that game went to OT, the Mavs dominating once they got there. With the monkey (of getting their first win) off their back, I expect the Mavs to build some positive momentum from that effort. Even without Dirk, they're the more experienced team in this matchup. They've dominated the Lakers in recent seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again tonight. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. While the Nuggets come in as the hotter team, I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis started the season dealing with a number of injuries but is now starting to get healthier. Last time out, Chandler Parsons made his season debut for the Grizzlies. While he admittedly didn't shoot well (0 for 8!) he's now got a game under his belt and will make this team stronger, even if minutes are limited a little at first. Playing the final game of a 4-game home-stretch and off b2b losses, the Grizzlies badly want to bounce back and salvage the split of the four games. Note that they're 14-10-2 ATS (16-10 SU) the past couple of seasons, off an 'upset' loss. Opposite of the Grizzlies, the Nuggets are playing the final leg of a road trip. They're just 6-12-3 ATS the last 21 times that they played their previous three on the road. Off their upset win at Boston, it wouldn't be a stretch for them to get caught looking ahead to Thursday's home showdown vs. the Warriors. The Grizzlies are 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) the last 18 times that they played their previous three or more games at home. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Mavs in their first game of the season, a 130-121 loss at Indiana. The Mavs played relatively well in that game, as they took a tough Pacers team to OT. Losing in OT to start the season seemed to take a toll though, as did four straight games against teams from the West. Indeed, the Mavs enter today's game with an 0-5 record and now playing without Dirk. They finally get to "host" an Eastern Conf. team though. In fact, this is the first time that the Mavs have actually been favored in a game. Knowing that opportunities like this one may be few and far between and desperate for their first win, I expect the Mavs to give us a highly motivated effort. The home team won both games last season; the Bucks won by one at Milawaukee but the Mavs won by 10 here at Dallas. Look for them to rise to the occasion with another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. Some of you will recall that I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. That was a tough spot for them though. Not only were they on the road but they were coming off a big win over the Knicks the previous night and playing their third game in the past four nights. I thought fatigue might be a factor, and it was. That won't be the case tonight, however, as the Pistons have had the past two days off. They're also back home, where they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Its true that the Nuggets are playing pretty well right now. They've split their first four games, covering three of them, with all four games being competitive. This is already their fourth road game through their first five games though and it represents the middle games of their current 5-game trip. While the Nuggets, 7-10-2 ATS their last 19 as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, did have last night off, they may be getting a little road weary already, all the close games taking a toll. Either way, they'll be taking on a Pistons team which has beaten every team by double-digits here. Though they lost last season, the Pistons have won 15 of the last 18 meetings with the Nuggets here. With the Pistons also at 21-6 ATS the last 27 times that they were off an "upset" loss, I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Pelicans are hungry for their first win and this should be an excellent spot to get it. While the Pelicans are 0-5, the Suns (1-4) haven't been much better. Give them credit for beating Portland last game. However, keep in mind that they were playing in Phoenix and that the Blazers were coming off a loss vs. the Warriors the previous night. The Suns are 0-2 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 114.5 to 104. The Pelicans are 24-15-2 ATS against Pacific Division teams the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS home record in games against the Suns. The lone Suns win (4/9) was a game where Davis (and a laundry list of others) didn't play and where the Pelicans were off an upset win the night before and playing their fourth game in five nights. Things set up much more favorably for the Pelicans this time. When they hosted the Suns last November, with Davis in the lineup, they beat them by six. Davis had an off-shooting night (until the 4th) and still finished with a 32/19 stat-line, to go along with four blocks and two steals. Look for him to "will" the Pelicans to another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on GS 10* MAIN EVENT. The Warriors dropped their first game of the season, a home loss against the Spurs Then, they won a couple of fairly close ones on the road. Last time out, however, they put it all together with a 23-point win at Portland. Returning home, where they're still searching for their first win, I expect them to build off the Portland win with another complete effort tonight. Obviously, both teams will want this one. The Thunder will want to beat their old teammate. Durant and co will feel the same way though and they're in a better spot to do so. Not only are they playing at home, where they're 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight against OKC, but they're also rested while the Thunder are off a hard-fought win against the Clippers last night. Note that OKC is just 4-9 ATS its last 13 off an "upset" win. With the Porltand win, the Warriors are now 30-2 SU and 21-11 ATS in November, the past 2+ seasons. I say Round 1 goes to KD, the Warriors earning the cover along the way.