I'm playing on MIAMI. A look at the upcoming schedule shows that this game offers the Hurricanes their best chance at a victory. Three of their next four are on the road, none of them at easy venues, (V-Tech, Virginia and FSU) and their only remaining home game is against Duke. That means that they better take care of business this afternoon. I expect them to do exactly that. While the Tigers are 5-7 on the road, the Canes are 12-2 at home. Clemson allows 74 ppg on the road, opposing teams shooting 45.2%. Miami allows 62.3 ppg at home, visiting teams hitting only 39.3% of their shots. The Tigers won by 11 at Clemson last season. However, the Canes won by 11 here at Miami the previous season. Homecourt makes the difference once again. 

I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON 10* BIG SKY GAME OF YEAR. When the Vandals rejoined the Big Sky a couple of years ago, they brought with them an 18-0 conference win/loss record against Eastern Washington. (Idaho had been an original "charter" member of the conference in 1963 but left in 1996.) Things changed while the Vandals were gone though. Including a 69-62 victory at Moscow in late December, its the Eagles who have now won five of the last seven in this "rivalry." 

Tonight's game has important implications for the upcoming Big Sky Tournament. The Eagles have a far superior overall record; they're 17-9 overall while the Vandals are 13-11. However, the teams are still close in terms of conference records; EWU is 9-5 while UI is 8-5. While the Eagles should already have an excellent shot at a first round bye (top 5 teams in the conference get a bye) they believe that they can achieve even more than that. 

As EWU coach Jim Hayford noted: " ... With a good homestand, we can fight for the conference championship ... "

Admittedly, the Vandals have played well in recent weeks. However, their positive momentum came to a crashing halt last time out, an 88-65 reality check at North Dakota. On the other hand, the Eagles bring some positive momentum into tonight's game as they're off a convincing 70-44 thrashing of Northern Colorado. 

As mentioned, the Eagles won at Idaho. They've been much better here at home, however. In fact, they're 12-1 SU in all "home" games, 8-1 SU in "home lined games." The Vandals, on the other hand, have won only four of their 12 road lined games.

Idaho isn't that great offensively, averaging just 73.3 ppg overall and 71.1 ppg on the road. That can make keeping up with good offensive teams (EWU averages 86 at home and has averaged over 90 its last five games) difficult. With an O/U line of 143 across the board, as of this writing, note that the Vandals are just 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. 

The Eagles know that they need to win here, to make the upcoming Weber State game here really meaningful and to keep any chance of the Big Sky reg. season title alive. They jumped all over the Vandals in the last game, taking a 39-25 lead into the break. Coming off the big win and with Idaho coming off the big loss, I expect "more of the same" tonight, another win and cover for the Eagles. 

I'm playing on MARSHALL 10* PERS FAV. I backed the Blazers (free play) when these teams met last month at UAB. So, I wasn't all that surprised to see UAB hold serve on its home floor. Including that result, the Blazers are 10-3 on their home floor but 5-8 when playing on the road. Marshall's home/road difference is even more pronounced. The Here are 3-10 when playing away from home but a dominating 11-1 here at home - the best home record in C-USA, in fact. While the Blazers are 1-8 ATS in road lined games, the Herd are 8-1 ATS in home lined games. UAB has had its way in the series in recent years including a close win here last season. I look for that to change tonight, homecourt making the difference once again.

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* PERS FAV. While the 76ers have been improved of late, they're not playing at the level that the Celtics are right now. Not many teams are, as Boston has won 10 of its last 11. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS record in the Celtics' past three games. Playing their final home game before the break and first game back home in more than a week, I expect them to keep it rolling for another day. The 76ers have won three in a row for the third time. In the previous two instances, they were 0-2 SU/ATS in the following game. They lost those games by (16 and 17) 33 combined points. The Celtics average 109.7 ppg here and I don't expect the 76ers to be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Explorers have upset the Bonnies each of the past two seasons but I don't see it happening here. Though the Bonnies have failed to cover a few in a row, this should be a good spot for them to break through with a big win. While the Bonnies average better than 82 ppg on this floor, the Explorers allow more than 82 ppg, when playing on the road. The Bonnies lost a close one last time out, after winning by 15 in their previous game. However, they've been at their best in that situation as they're a perfect 4-0 SU (2-1-1 ATS) on the season, when off a conference loss. They won those games by an average of 13 points, the victories coming by 10, 20, 7 and 15 points. Expect homecourt to be the difference, the Bonnies again bouncing back with a win and cover.

I'm playing on K-STATE 10* MAIN EVENT. These teams have very similar home/road stats; each is significantly better on its home floor. The Cyclones are 9-3 on their home floor but 6-6 when playing away from home. Likewise, the Wildcats are also 6-6 when playing away from home but they're 10-3 here at home. Not surprisingly, given those records, the Cyclones won when the teams played at Iowa State. With this evening's rematch played at K-State, I expect the revenge-minded Wilcats to have the advantage. While the Cyclones are 2-4 ATS this season, after scoring 80 or more points, the Wildcats are 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) after allowing 80 or more. The Cyclones allow 76.7 ppg on the road, the Cats allow 64.5 ppg here at home. Payback time. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The T-Wolves got back on track in a big way on Sunday, crushing Chicago by 28 points. That wire-to-wire blowout should provide them with some confidence. The Cavs, who are expected to be without Love and perhaps Shumpert, have a big divisional showdown vs. Indiana on deck tomorrow night. Having already just pounded these same T-Wolves on the first day of February, it could be easy to look past them tonight. While the Cavs actually get outscored by an 108.4 to 108 average margin on the road, the T-Wolves outscore teams by a 106.4 to 103.8 average margin here at Minnesota. I really liked what I saw from them on Sunday and I expect them to deliver (at least) another cover here. 

I'm playing on KENTUCKY 10* ANNIHILATOR. A lot of handicappers, amateurs and pros alike, are quick to back an elite team in revenge situations. I did so myself last night with Kansas (which didn't go so well!) and am doing so again here. I don't do so blindly though, as I'm well aware that the pointspread tends to be pretty high on these teams, in these situations. I'm also well aware that Kentucky doesn't have a profitable recent history, when playing in the 'revenge' role. That said, I always look at each game individually and without bias. Every way I analyze this one, I get the same result - a big win for the Cats. 

Its been awhile since the Cats "blew a team out" and I feel that they're going to be motivated to do so here. Partly because the Vols beat them already. Absolutely. But also because they've got their next two on the road before hosting Florida, a team which beat them by 20 less than two weeks ago, in their next game here. I feel that they're going to look to build some confidence here - and I believe that the Vols will provide them that opportunity. 

The Vols are below .500 on the road. They only score 73.8 ppg away from home and they allow 74.4. Here, they'll face a Wildcat team which outscores teams by an average score of 92.4 to 72.4 on this floor. 

Note that the Vols are off a tough 1-point loss, as a favorite against Georgia, in their last game. Those types of defeats tend to sting and can be deflating. Not what you need when heading into hostile Kentucky. 

While they may not always thrive in the revenge role (4-6 ATS and 8-2 SU L10) the Cats have fared very well as home favorites of this size, in recent seasons. In fact, they're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. With payback on their minds, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10*. Off back-to-back losses, the Jazz figure to be an in an angry mood. This marks the third time in 2017 that they've lost back-to-back games. In both previous instances, they responded with a win and cover in their next game, snapping the skid before it reached three games. While the Clippers have started to win some games without Paul and are off back-to-back road wins, they're still a modest 16-13 on the road. They'll take on a Utah team which ranks as the stingiest in the entire league and which is 19-10 here at home. While the Clippers allow 109.3 ppg on the road, the Jazz allow just 94.1 ppg here at home. With the Jazz, who lost at LA earlier, at 69-41-3 ATS in the "revenge role," the past few seasons, I'm laying the points. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* GAME OF WEEK. While the Mountaineers are a fairly deep and talented team, I don't think they've got enough to sweep this very talented (and very well-coached) Kansas team. The Jayhawks are off back-to-back very close wins, which should serve them well in a "wake up call" way, here. They know they were a bit fortunate. They know they have to play better. Those results have also helped us in keeping the line a little lower than it easily could have been. Note that the Jayhawks are 69-11 SU the last 80 times that they were listed as favorites. During that 80-game span, they were only listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range twice. They won and covered both of those games. 

While the Mountaineers are 7-3, averaging 78.5 ppg on the road, the Jayhawks are 11-1, averaging 88.2 ppg, at home.

They're 50-12 SU the last 62 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss, 9-2 their last 11. Look for the Jayhawks to improve on those numbers, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10*. The Bucks got back on track with an impressive win at Indiana on Friday. They'll have both the venue and the schedule in their favor here. While the Bucks had the day off, the Pistons are off a big game at Toronto yesterday. Now, they're playing their third game in the past four days. While the Pistons are well below .500 on the road, the Bucks can get back to .500 at home with a win. With the Pistons at 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine when playing the second of b2b games, most recently a 21-point loss at Indiana, I'm laying the small number with the home team.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10*. This is an absolute "must win" game for the Hornets. I expect them to respond accordingly. Mired in a losing streak and with a lengthy road game on deck, the Hornets simply can't afford to lose to the 76ers. True, the 76ers have been much improved. However, they're still a team which is 7-18 on the road. The Hornets, now 16-12 at home, are just thinking about winning right now. However, they also haven't forgotten that the 76ers beat them (at Philadelphia) last month. When the teams met here at Charlotte, earlier in the season, the Hornets won by 16. That marked the seventh straight time that Charlotte has beaten the 76ers here. They won those seven games by an average of 13 points. With their backs to the wall, I expect the Hornets to bounce back and continue their homecourt dominance in this series. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Aztecs are going to be in a foul mood this afternoon. Not only are they coming off an upset loss at SJ State but they also haven't forgotten that the Wolfpack beat them by three points back in early January. Both those losses came on the road, however, where the Aztecs are now below .500. Here at home, they outscore teams by a commanding 75.2 to 62.9 margin. Nevada is having a strong season and is currently on top of the conference. The Aztecs are still the top defensive team in the Mountain West though and I believe they're favored for good reason. Expect them to bounce back big, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* MAIN EVENT. With all due respect to the Spurs, who are very good regardless of venue, this is a lot of points. Consider that the Cavs were laying only four points here just a week ago. (Cleveland won by 7.) Admittedly, the Spurs are more consistent than the Cavs, on the road. However, in this particular situation, I don't feel that they should be laying roughly twice as many points. 

With back-to-back difficult road games on deck, the Knicks could badly use a win here. While they're only 1-4 in February, only one of those five games resulted in a loss of greater than eight points. Note that they're 5-2 ATS off an upset loss.

The Knicks have the next two days off and can go "all out" here. The Spurs, on the other hand, are in the middle of a lengthy road trip and play at Indiana tomorrow. I've learned not to rely on Popovich resting any starters - and won't be relying on him doing so today - but you never know. Either way, I expect a hungry Knicks team. 

The last meeting between these teams was at San Antonio. The Spurs were laying double-digits but only won by a single point. Look for this one to also prove closer than expected, the Knicks with a solid shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S. With a #1 ranking and an undefeated record, Gonzaga is obviously having a great season. If they can get through today, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way. Don't expect that to be easy though. While the Gaels haven't been as awesome as the Bulldogs, they've still been very good. In fact, they've won seven straight and they're 16-1 their last 17. The lone loss, during that span, was a blowout, at Gonzaga. Catching their rivals on their home floor and with a rare chance to earn a victory against a #1 seed, I expect the revenge-minded Gaels, who are allowing an average of just 48.6 ppg their last five games, to rise to the occasion. Look for them to earn AT LEAST the cover with an excellent shot at the upset. 

10* RIVALRY BLOWOUT, I'm playing on MSU. The Hawkeyes gave a great effort on Wednesday. It wasn't enough though. If you bet on them, it was a very bad beat. Getting +6.5 or +7 points, they lost by 12, in double-OT. While theyve since had a couple of days off, that loss still figures to take a toll on them today. The Spartans may not score as many as Iowa, but they've got the considerably better defense. The Hawkeyes are just 3-11-1 ATS their last 15, after having allowed 80 or more points. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 8-2 ATS their last 10 against teams which score 77 or more points per game. I'm going with the home team. 

10* PERS FAV, I'm playing on UCF. The Huskies won big when these teams played at UConn last month. Playing on their home floor, where they're 11-2 on the season, the Knights should return the favor. While the Huskies get outcored by an average score of 70.7 to 68.8 on the road, where they are 4-8, the Knights outscore teams by a commanding 71.1 to 56.6 margin here at Central Florida. While its no secret that the Huskies will be looking to push the pace, the Knights should be able to more effectively slow the tempo in their own buidling. UConn is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five as a road underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. During that span, UCF is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Going back further finds the Knights at 14-8 ATS (20-2 SU) their last 22 in that role. I say, "its payback time." 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Hornets desperately need a win. They'd just dropped all three games on a West Coast road trip. They badly need to do something with this 4-game stretch at home, which they're now 1-1 on. Thats due in part because they're back on the road the day after Valentine's, a trip which includes a visit to take on these same Clippers. Though the Clippers are still tough with Griffin and co, they're not the same team without Paul. While the Clippers are 3-8 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the Hornets are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven as home favorites of three or less. LA gets outscored on the road, Charlotte outscores teams by an average of more than three points on this floor. I expect a highly motivated effort and a win/cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. With a victory here, the Bucks can climb back over the .500 mark, at home. Facing a Laker team which gets outscored by a 112.2 to 100.4 margin on the road should provide them the perfect opportunity. The Lakers are 8-40 SU and 19-28-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During that span the Bucks are 13-7-1 ATS (14-7 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Bucks, already 3-0 ATS against Pacific division teams and 10-6 ATS against the west overall, won by seven when they hosted the Lakers last February, a game they were laying -9 for. They're laying a lot less than that here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Bucks bounce back big. 

I'm playing on PENNSLYVANIA 10* PERS FAV. It might seem funny to see the Quakers laying points, as they're still winless in conference play. However, I believe that they're favored for good reason. The next two games (this one and Cornell, which is on deck) are critical for this team, particularly this one.

Even Penn coach Donahue had to acknowledge: "In terms of making the tournament, I think both of the games this weekend are must-win. When you play at home against teams in front of you in the standings, you just can't keep losing."

Yes, the Quakers have dropped three straight. However, two of those were on the road and the other was against Princeton, the top team in the conference. While still not "easy," Columbia isn't quite in that class. The Quakers are 9-4 ATS off three or more consecutive losses the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to bounce back and take this critical game, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UCLA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Bruins are going to be in an angry mood. Not only did they lose their last game on this floor - their only home loss of the season - but they also lost by two points, at Oregon, on 12/28. Including that result, the Ducks are a perfect 15-0 as the home team. However, they've tasted defeat three times when playing away from home. While the Ducks average 71.9 ppg on the road, the Bruins average a whopping 97 ppg here at home. The Bruins also haven't forgotten that the Ducks defeated them here last season. They've only played one other game, on this floor, this season when the O/U line was in the 160s. The Bruins won that one by 40 points. They need this game to stay in the Pac-12 hunt and I expect them to get it, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. Speculating that the Cavs may rest one or more stars, I released this play basically as soon as the lines became available. As of this writeup, its still unclear which Cleveland stars, if any, will be rested. However, it now appears likely to happen. (Some of the DFS sites are currently suggesting that "The Big 3" are likely to all rest.) Either way, I like the Thunder to come up with a big win tonight. While Cleveland was busy battling Indiana last night, the Thunder had the night off. The Cavs just beat them by 16, at Cleveland, less than two weeks ago and they'll be anxious to avenge that 1/29 loss. While the Cavs have been pretty mediocre (14-10 after last night's win) on the road, the Thunder are an impressive 18-7 here at OKC. They're 12-7 ATS their last 19 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Playing on National TV, I expect them to serve up a healthy dose of "payback" here. 

*Important Update: As expected, the Cavs have indeed elected to rest their stars. Naturally, the line has jumped significantly, as this has now turned into a mismatch. I'm expecting a double-digit OKC win and am comfortable laying as much as -10. If the line goes higher than that, this becomes a no play. 

I'm playing on UC IRVINE 10* PERS FAV. The Anteaters already won by four at Santa Barbara. Now they'll face a rebuilding Gauchos team which is even more banged-up now than it was then and which is 0-11 when playing away from home. Normally, the Gauchos might have a shot at hanging around and covering the big number. However, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses, the Anteaters are going to be furious and looking to take out their anger on someone. A couple of weeks ago, the Big West was looking like it belonged to them. Now, they've squandered their lead. Expect them to play with anger. The Anteaters outscored teams by a 77.9 to 62.2 margin at home. Conversely, the Gauchos get outscored by a 79.4 to 62.4 margin on the road. It all adds up to a blowout. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Heat beat me last time out and are obviously "red hot." That won't prevent me from going against them here though. The Bucks got back on track last time out, delivering a convinging 25-point blowout win. They're a "streaky" team. That win gives them some much needed confidence and positive momentum and has them streaking in the right direction. 

Having just wrapped up a 3-game road trip, its worth mentioning that the Bucks are 3-0 SU/ATS after having played their previous three on the road, a profitable 13-6 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. 

While both are about 50/50 at home, both these teams struggle to win on the road. The Heat are 13-13 at Miami but only 9-17 on the road. The Bucks are 9-16 on the road but 13-13 here at Milwaukee.  

This season, the Bucks average 109.5 ppg here at Milwaukee. By comparison, the Heat average just 97.4 ppg away from Miami. Given those stats, its not surprising that the home team has won and covered all three meetings this season.

The Heat won by 23 and 12 points at Miami but the Bucks won by eight here at Milwaukee. They were laying -7.5 for that game. Now, less than a month later, due to Miami's hot streak, we're getting the Bucks at a much lower line. I believe thats providing us with excellent value and I'm expecting homecourt to again prove the difference.

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE 10* ANNIHILATOR. This one should get ugly. Off a bizarre OT loss vs. VCU, the Bonnies are going to be in a foul mood. Note that they're already 2-0-1 ATS (3-0 SU) off a loss in conference play this season, including a road win at Duquesne and double-digit wins against Fordham and a strong George Mason team. They beat Fordham by 20, a team arguably stronger than St. Louis. The Bonnies already won by 19 on the Billikens' home floor and the Billikens are just 1-8 away from St. Louis. With the Billikens, who are 0-4 ATS (0-5 SU) their last five against teams which average 77 or more ppg, averaging only 55.9 ppg on the road and the Bonnies averaging 83.6 ppg here at home, I see this one going only one way. 

I'm playing on MARQUETTE 10* GAME OF YEAR. The Golden Eagles have had this one circled and they'll have payback on their minds. You may recall that they blew an 18-point halftime lead in a January game at Hinkle Fieldhouse. 

Marquette's Andrew Rowsey was quoted as saying: "... we owe them something from last time we played at Hinkle."

While I respect the Bulldogs, I believe that the Eagles are catching them at the right time. While the Eagles are off a confidence-building double-digit win, the Bulldogs check in off back-to-back home losses. 

While Butler has outscored teams by a modest 72-69 margin on the road, Marquette has dominated teams by a 85.5 to 69.8 average score in going 11-2 at home. 

While it may change throughout the day, as of this writing, the O/U line is 154. I mention that as Marquette is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS its last six home games, with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Meanwhile, Butler is 0-4 ATS its last four on the road, when the O/U line was in the 150 to 154.5 range. 

While the Bulldogs destroyed them at Butler last season, the Eagles won the game (by 6) here at Marquette. Look for homecourt to again prove the difference, revenge-minded Marquette settling the score. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. I think that this one's going to get ugly. The Magic lost by 27 last time out. They allow over 108 ppg on the road, allowing host teams to connect on 46.6% of their shots. Now, they'll travel to Houston to face a well-rested Rockets which averages nearly 115 ppg here and which hits better than 46% of its field goals here. The Rockets have alternated wins and losses for a few weeks now and haven't actually recorded back-to-back wins for nearly a month. I believe that they're going to be highly motivated to finally string together victories. Having had the past three days off and with no game on deck tomorrow, there's no reason not to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. While the line may seem steep, note that the Rockets are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. They're also 17-7 ATS (21-3 SU) against teams with a losing record. I expect them to put up a big number and don't believe that the Magic will be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on MONMOUTH. The Hawks took all three meetings with the Broncs last season, one of those coming in the quarterfinals of the MAAC Tournament. This season, the Hawks are again dominating the MAAC.They're currently 19-5 on the season, an impressive 11-1 on their home floor. Their lone home loss came at the hands of these same Broncs, as Rider scored a major upset against them on New Year's Eve. A closer look reveals that the Hawks were still licking their wounds from a blowout loss at UNC a few days earlier. The UNC loss, combined with the fact that it was New Year's Eve, seemed to result in a lack of focus from Monmouth in the first meeting. This time, however, the Broncs should have the Riders' full attention. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* PAC 12 GAME OF YEAR. The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. The Buffaloes won by eight at Colorado. The Bears won by 14 here at Cal. I expect homecourt to again make the difference this afternoon. 

The Bears are just 3-4 when playing away from home. However, they're 13-2 here on their home floor. Playing dominant defense here, they've outscored teams by an average score of 71.9 to 59.9. Visiting teams connect on a mere 37.8% of their field goals here. 

On the other hand, the Buffaloes allow more than 76 ppg on the road, where they're just 4-7. While they won 81-74 at Stanford last time out, the Buffaloes have yet to win back-to-back road games and are just 2-6 ATS after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. I'm backing the Bears. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* GAME OF YEAR. After losing three straight, the Thunder got back on track in a big way last time out. They defeated Memphis by 12 points on Friday. They're now just 12-15 on the road but an impressive 17-7 here at home. 

Like the Thunder, the Blazers have long been much better on their home floor. Having recently been at the Moda Center watching basketall, I can attest that is still the case. At Portland, the Blazers can compete with any team. They're 14-11 overall in games there. Games on the road have been a different story. Indeed, the Blazers are only 8-18 when playing away from the Moda Center. That included a 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record when playing a road game when the O/U line was listed at 210 or greater. 

The recent OKC losses were "excusable." Two were at difficult road venues, games at San Antonio and Cleveland and the other was a home game which was in a back-to-back spot. After this game, the Blazers play two of their next four on the road (at Indiana and at Washington) and their two home games come against Cleveland and against Golden State. In other words, all four of those games will likely be challenging. Armed with this knowledge, the Thunder know they need to take care of business, at home, this afternoon. 

Added incentive stems from the fact that the Blazers hammered the Thunder in this season's only meeting, a 114-95 blowout at the Moda Center in mid-December. They're a solid 10-7 ATS their last 17 in the 'revenge role.'

The last meeting between these teams here at OKC was an entirely different story. Laying -8 points, the Thunder won by 34. In fact, the Thunder are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three home games in this series. All three victories came by double-digits. 

Given the situation, schedule and venue and given the fact that the Thunder are 7-1 SU/ATS when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, I believe this line could easily be higher. Look for OKC to avenge the December loss, contining its homecourt dominance in this series. *GOY

I'm playing on VILLANOVA 10* GAME OF MONTH. At first glance, some might find this line to be a little. However, a closer look reveals that it could easily be higher. Keep in mind that the Wildcats were favored by 27 when they hosted St. John's last February. Also, note that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. So, they've been "comfortable" in this role. 

Off a few close games, I believe that the Wildcats will be motivated to flex their muscles with a blowout win and that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. St. John's lost by 28 at Georgetown, one of four straight double-digit losses in January. So, the Red Storm are susceptible to a big loss. They're 0-2 SU/ATS the last couple of seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the 15.5 to 18 range. 

Including a 13-point win at MSG earlier, the Cats have beaten the Red Storm 13 straight times. Jay Wright said after the Providence win that "we still have a lot of work to do." Look for him to have his team ready to go from the opening tip and for them to ultimately pull away for a 20+ point blowout win.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The road team has won both meetings this season but the home team should have the edge here. The Magic are off an upset win against the Raptors yesterday and playing their third game already in February. Ibaka and Fournier both played 35+ hard-fought minutes. They're just 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU) when coming off an "upset" win. Like the Magic, the Hawks are off an upset win, as they won at Houston last time out. Unlike the Magic, they've had a day off in between games. While the Magic are 11-16 on the road, the Hawks are 14-10 at home. Look for the homecourt and scheduling advantage to lead to a win and cover for the Hawks. 

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. Off three straight wins, the Hoyas are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. However, next up is a road game against the national champs. Thats followed by Marquette and another difficult road game, this time at Creighton. So, they've got some tough games in their immediate future. Later, this month, they'll take on these same Pirates, at Seton Hall. That all means that they absolutely need to take care of business at home this afternoon. Facing a struggling Seton Hall team which has lost five of six, the lone win coming home at home against St. John's, I expect the Hoyas to do just that. The Pirates, who are off an emotional 2-point loss at Xavier, are already 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a true road game after also playing on the road in their last game. Overall, they're 0-5 on the road since Christmas. Homecourt makes the difference, the Hoyas covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BYU 10* MAIN EVENT. You'll hear a lot of talk about BYU's Nick Emery getting sent home from practice with an illness. Needless to say, thats not ideal. However, with or without him, I believe that the Cougars are going to be ready to play tonight. 

Obviously, the Bulldogs are having a remarkable season. They're a great team and they'll be tough to beat. Anywhere. Against anyone. They like to run though and the Cougars to do too. In front of thousands of their screaming fans, I expect the Cougars to be one of the few teams capable of keeping up. BYU is averaging 86.9 ppg here while Gonzaga is averaging 83 on the road. 

While its possible this total will close in the 150s, I'll still note that the Cougars are a perfect 11-0 SU and 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 160s. During that span, they're also 7-3-1 ATS when playing a team which averages 77 or more points, after 15 or more games of the season. They don't mind a quick tempo.

Coach Rose, going for his #300th win, likes the mood of his team and had this to say: "I think that you can visually see from the guys, just the last couple of days, the excitement and the opportunity they feel. I think that any time you play a team in the top 25, but especially in the top 10, that it brings a real kind of national relevance to the game. I think our guys are excited about that." Look for Rose to have them ready to play as the Bulldogs, who would probably benefit from a closer game, finally get challenged. 

I'm playing on SA 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers are an improved team (from recent seasons) and they had a nice run in January. However, a tough recent schedule has caught up with them. They couldn't keep up at Dallas last night (lost by 18) and things don't get any easier tonight. 

In addition to having to play back-to-back games, this will mark the 76ers' fourth game in the past five days and their seventh game in the past 10 days, a grueling stretch which occurred due to them having to play a make-up game against Sacramento on 1/30. 

While its always possible that Popovich could rest someone, the Spurs have no reason to do so. They had last night off and they have tomorrow off. Either way, it shouldn't matter. Having lost two of their last three, the Spurs aren't going to take any team for granted. The last time they faced the 76ers? A 51-point destruction. 

The Spurs did follow up their two losses with a 14-point win over OKC last time out. They're 6-0 SU/ATS against Atlantic teams and 13-6 SU/ATS off a double-digit win. Given the scheduling, talent and coaching advantage, this one should result in another rout. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. These teams will meet again on 2/21, at Oakland. However, the Grizzlies will be double-digit favorites for that one. Here, we're getting them at a more reasonable number. While that might still seem like a lot, this is a team which has thrived on the road in recent seasons. In fact, the Grizzlies are 26-11-1 ATS in road lined games, the past 2+ seasons. 

When the Grizzlies win, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. Nine of their last 11 victories, including each of their past two, have come by a minimum of nine points. 

While the Grizzlies have been profitable on the road, the Penguins are just 8-19 ATS (and SU) in home lined games the past 2+ seasons, 2-6 ATS so far this season. Yes, the Penguins won last game. However, that doesn't usually mean much to them, as they're already 0-3 SU/ATS off a conference win, 3-8 ATS (1-10 SU) their last 11 in that situation. 

Last season, almost exactly one year ago to the day, the Grizzlies were laying -12.5 points when they visited here. They won by 22. The previous year, almost exactly two years ago to the day, laying only -3 points when they visited here, the Grizzlies won by 16. 

The Grizzlies have been money when failing to cover three in a row, most recently winning by nine at Northern Kentucky. I'm expecting another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. Some will take a look one look at the matchup, see the low line and assume that the Clippers are a bargain. They're not the same team without Paul (out for at least another few weeks) running the show though and I believe this one sets up well for the home team. 

Paul went down on 1/18. At the time, LA was on a 7-game win streak, covering six of those game. Since then? A 1-4 SU/ATS record. Part of that is due to the fact that they were playing at home during the winning streak and on the road during the slump. However, the injury to Paul is obviously significant.

Tonight, the Clippers are playing the final leg of a road trip. With Golden State on deck tomorrow night, it should be easy to look past the Suns, who they've already beaten by double-digits twice this season. 

Those earlier results should provide Phoenix with plenty of extra motivation here. Unlike the Clippers, the Suns have tomorrow night off. They're 11-6 ATS off a double-digit loss; I expect them to bounce back with at least another cover here. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. *10* GAME OF WEEK. Both teams have been much better of late. The 76ers survived a monster game from Cousins to score a minor upset over Sacramento on Monday. They're now a lucrative 13-3 ATS their last 16 games. At 8-2 ATS their last 10, the Mavs have been every bit as profitable the past few weeks. The Mavs' recent wins have also arguably been far more impressive. Last time out, the Mavs beat Cleveland. The previous night, they beat the Spurs, at San Antonio. How many teams can say that they've beaten both the Cavs and Spurs in a two-day span? Since then, they've had a day off. Unlike the 76ers, who will play at San Antonio tomorrow, the Mavs also get tomorrow off. 

While the 76ers are still just 6-14 on the road, tonight's game offer the Mavs a chance to get back to .500 at home. They're 6-1 ATS their last seven against teams which average 99 or more points per game (Philly now averages 100.9) and they're 5-1 ATS on the season, when laying points. They beat the 76ers by 26 points last year; I expect them to keep on rolling with another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON 10* PERS FAV. The Tigers are in need of a big win and the Yellow Jackets should provide them the perfect opportunity. While Georgia Tech averages 63.9 ppg on the road, Clemson averages 81.2. ppg at home. Clemson connects on better than 47% of its shots here. GT hits only 41% of its fg's on the road. The Tigers also have the edge on the other side of the ball. They allow 67.2 ppg here as compared to the 75.9 ppg which GT allows on the road. The Tigers, who will be looking to avenge a January loss at GT, won by 14 the last time that these teams met on this floor. The gap between the teams is arguably bigger now than it was then and I'm expecting another double-digit win.

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* PERS FAV. The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in four straight games, losing three of those outright. This should be an excellent spot for them to break through with a big "blowout" win. 

The Rockets are in one of their best roles here. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Note that they're also 28-18 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit loss. 

This is a very difficult scheduling spot for the Kings. Not only are they playing their second game in two days, they're also playing their fourth road game in the past five days. Yesterday's loss, a make-up from an earlier postponed game, was a difficult one, too. The Kings blew a double-digit lead and had to fight hard the entire way. Cousins had a huge game but it wasn't enough, the Kings' star eventually fouling out. 

The Rockets have won both of this season's meetings with the Kings by double-digits. They won those games by an average of 23.5 points. I'm expecting this one to also "turn ugly."

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* PERS FAV. While I successfully played against the Buckeyes in their last game, I expect them to bounce back with an important win here. While the Buckeyes are now just 2-6 away from home, they're a much better team on their home floor. Off a win against Minnesota in their last game here, they're 11-3 when playing at home. All three of those losses came by two points or less, too. So, they could easily be even better here. Knowing that they'll be visiting Maryland in less than two weeks should add some urgency, as they know they need to hold serve at home. Needless to say, they could really use a victory against a ranked opponent. Its true that the Terps are having an outstanding season and also that they remain undefeated on the road. However, they're in the middle of a stretch which sees them play five of seven away from home. This will mark their fourth road game in the past five. Wtih a showdown vs. Purdue on deck, I expect it to catch up with them here. Coach Matta had this to say: "We have to play our best basketball Tuesday night. To quote Jim Tressel a few years ago, we have to be better than we are." Look for the Buckeyes to do just that, getting back on track with a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* MAIN EVENT. A loss against the Nuggets in their last game notwithstanding, the Suns have been playing quite well lately. They're now 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 games. I believe that they're offering excellent value as a home underdog this evening. The Grizzlies are only a .500 team on the road, where they get outscored by a 104.4 to 102.5 average margin. 

One might expect the Grizzlies to fare well against "defensively-challenged" teams like the Suns. However, they're actually only 15-20 ATS against teams which allow 99 or more ppg including 0-3 ATS their last three. On the season, they're 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. In fact, they're 0-7 ATS (1-6 SU) their last seven in that situation. 

Meanwhile the Suns are 2-0 ATS on the season, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 205 to 209.5 range. They're 18-11 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. 

Knowing that they're going to face the Grizzlies, at Memphis, in a week, the Suns should be extremely motivated to "hold serve" here. With the Suns also a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were off an "upset loss," I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the 76ers have been playing rather well of late. I'm still not ready to call them a great team though. The Bulls are off b2b losses and they've got a difficult 6-game West Coast road trip on deck. In other words, they absolutely need to stop the bleeding here. I expect them to do just that. The Bulls beat the 76ers by 16 (at Philly) in this season's only previous meeting. The last meeting here at Chicago also resulted in a double-digit win for the Bulls. Normally, the 76ers would have had tomorrow off. However, they have a make-up game to play against Sacramento. That means that they'll rest Joel Embiid as they'd rather have him ready for the home game. Look for a "desperate" Bulls team to take advantage. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* ANNHILATOR. While they blew the cover in the fourth quarter, the Cavs bounced back with a much needed win last time out. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. While the Thunder have won a few in a row, those opponents weren't in the same class as the defending champs. For the season, the Thunder are just 7-10 ATS when getting points. Overall, they're 12-13 on the road while the Cavs are 20-5 at home. The Cavs still outscore teams by more than nine ppg here at home while the Thunder still get outscored by nearly five ppg on the road. Look for Lebron and co. to put it all together for the full four quarters, improving to 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Grizzlies are off back-to-back losses and thats going to have them in a foul mood here. This is the third time that they were off b2b losses. Each of the previous two times they responded with a win and cover. They also haven't forgotten that Milwaukee beat them here last season. I believe that they've got a considerable talent edge (Milw averages 64.9 ppg on the road, Oakland averages 81.6 ppg at home) and expect them to improve to a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Off a loss at Marquette, the well-coached Wildcats figure to be an angry team here. The only previous time that they lost this season, they responded with a win and cover, winning by 12 points. That brings them to 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference loss. With the Cavs just 7-17-1 ATS their last 25 against teams from the Big East, I'm laying the relatively small number with the champs. 

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* BEST BET. The Ducks are obviously a very strong team. However, I feel that they're a little over-valued here. The Buffaloes snapped a losing streak last game, knocking off Oregon State. That gives them some much-needed positive momentum and confidence. It should be noted that each of their previous three losses had come by three or fewer points. The Buffaloes, who lost by single-digits at Arizona, have beaten Xavier here. They've beaten Texas on a neutral floor while losing by six against Notre Dame. They got blown out at Oregon last year but beat the Ducks by four here at Colorado. In fact, they're 4-0 against Oregon here since 1997. I expect them to give the Ducks all they can handle again here. 

 I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* PERS FAV. The Nuggets are expected to be without but Mudiay and Jokic here. The Jokic injury is particularly significant as he's been an absolute beast in recent weeks. The Suns will be playing with "triple revenge." Not only did they lose twice to the Nuggets earlier in the season but they also just lost at Denver a couple of days ago. Counting that one as a 'push,' the Suns are a healthy 10-3-1 ATS their last 14 games. They're 19-14-2 ATS the last 35 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss and I expect them to get some "payback" this evening. 

I'm playing on IOWA. 10* MAIN EVENT. With the pointspread likely a non-factor, I expect homecourt to make the difference in this one. The Hawkeyes are 10-3 at home, outscoring teams by an average score of 87.2 to 75.6 here. On the other hand, the Buckeyes are 2-5 away from home, getting outscored by a 75 to 69-point margin. Going back further finds Ohio State at 10-16 in true road games the past 2+ seasons, while Iowa is 37-9 at home. Hawkeyes bounce back. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* PERS FAV. Off a loss last time out, the Grizzlies are going to be in a foul mood tonight. The Phoenix are a capable team and they average a healthy 79.8 ppg. In fact, thats more ppg than Oakland, which averages 78. However, the Grizzlies tend to be at their best against high-scoring teams and the Phoenix remain below .500 on the road. The well-coached Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS the past couple of seasons against teams which score more than 77 ppg. During that stretch, they're also an outstanding 32-15 ATS against teams with a winning record overall. While GB may score more points per game overall, the Phoenix get outscored on the road, where they allow a whopping 79.6 per game. Oakland, on the other hand, outscores teams by an average score of 82.4 to 69.7 here at home. The Grizzlies have dominated the Phoenix here, including an 18-point win last season and a 20-point win here two seasons ago. I'm expecting another double-digit win this evening. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. These teams have split a pair of meetings this season. In both cases, the home team won and covered. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. The Hawks are a solid 13-9 at home. The Wizards are a terrible 6-14 on the road. Atlanta averages 105.5 ppg at home while Washington allows 107.9 ppg on the road. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off three straight losses, the Cavs are going to be an angry team tonight. Lebron was clearly not happy in the post-game interviews after the Sacramento loss. I expect him to be "on a mission" tonight. Note that the Cavs are 1-0 SU/ATS after losing three straight this season. 

While the line may seem high, note that the Cavs are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) on the season, when favored in the -12.5 to -18 range. As for the Nets, they're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. 

The Cavs have beaten the Nets by 20 points in each of the last two meetings here at Cleveland. I expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on DARTMOUTH 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Big Green had a terrible start to the season. They started to turn things around with three straight wins to close out December. However, they threw up an air-ball in their first game of 2017, losing by four points to CS-Bakersfield. Since then, they've played just two games - and both happened to come against Harvard, the top team in the Ivy League. Not surprisingly, they lost both of those, too. The Lions, who are off b2b close games (1 win, 1 loss) against Cornell, aren't in the same class as Harvard though. They're also one of a few teams with a better record away from home. With a big showdown on deck vs. Harvard on deck tomorrow, it may be easy to get caught looking past Dartmouth. That'll be a mistake though as Columbia isn't strong enough to overlook any team. Only three of the Lions' 15 games has resulted in a win by more than eight. Prior to the Harvard games, Dartmouth had seen five of six games decided by six or fewer points and the other was a 14-point win. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on UTAH 10* PERS FAV. Oregon is admittedly a strong team which is playing well. The Ducks are fully deserving of their national ranking. That said, I believe that the Utes opened as favorites for good reason. 

The Utes, who lost by one here against UCLA, know that they desperately need a "signature win." They also know that this will be one of the last opportunities for them to get one. 

Utah didn't have very high expectations coming into the season. The Utes have proven to be much better than most expected though and come in full of confidence. They're 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) within the conference. They're also 8-5 ATS (12-1 SU) when laying points.

The Utes 81.6 ppg has them ranked second in the conference, in terms of scoring. The number has been on the rise too, as they've scored 82 or more points in five straight games. Over that 5-game stretch, the Utes are averaging a whopping 87.6 ppg, on the strength of hitting 52.6% of their field goals. 

Including a 17-point loss at Baylor earlier in the season, the Ducks, who may again be without Dillon Brooks, are only 1-3-1 ATS (1-4 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. 

Oregon coach Dana Altman had this to say about the Utes: "They're a greatly improved team with the two transfers they added at Christmas time. They're deep, they're experienced. I like their team. ... They're well-coached. They don't take bad shots. Their ball movement is really good. They're doing some different things defensively than they have in the past. Utah (against UCLA) ... went right down to the wire. That (final) shot didn't go in. If it goes in, they're probably talked about a little more."

Don't be surprised to see the Utes crack the Top 25 in the next poll, after tonight's win and cover. 

I'm playing on BOISE STATE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Wolfpack are coming off arguably their worst two-game stretch of the season. Normally a hard-working team, Nevada got "out-toughed," to borrow coach Musselman's words. They played terribly in the second half against lowly Air Force and then followed it up by losing outright - for the second time this season - to Fresno State.  Nevada was outrebounded in those two games by a combined 72-49 margin. The Wolfpack were outscored in the paint by a combined 70-52 score. While this is still a talented, capable and well-coached team, a visit to Boise is NOT the place for them to get back on track. 

Nevada's recent rebounding woes figure to particularly hurt them here. That's because the Broncos are an excellent rebounding team, both on the offensive and defensive glass. In fact, they're the top rebounding team in the conference. 

While they did drop a game against New Mexico recently, the Broncos rarely lose here. In fact, only three teams have beaten them here over the past few seasons - and Nevada isn't one of them. The last two times these teams met here, the Broncos won by 19 and 32 points. 

The Broncos shook off the loss vs. New Mexico by recording a double-digit win at San Jose State. Note that they're 21-9 ATS the last 30 times that they were off a conference win. 

The Broncos are already 7-2 ATS when laying points this season. I believe they're catching the Wolfpack at the right time and I expect another win and cover this evening. *GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Bucks got back on track on Monday, posting a double-digit victory over Houston. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to deliver a repeat performance this evening.

The 76ers are certainly playing a lot better these days. This is a tough spot for them though, as they're off a win vs. the Clippers last night. They were just in this situation a few days ago - off a win and playing their second game in two days - and they lost by double-digits vs. Atlanta. That 17-point loss dropped them to 1-8 SU, when playing the second of b2b games. 

The Bucks, who are 6-2 SU/ATS when coming off an "upset win," will be looking to settle a score, as the 76ers beat them here less than two weeks ago. I expect them to have their revenge, in "blowout fashion."

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. With the Cavs off back-to-back losses, the Kings are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. 

The Cavs already beat the Kings by 12, at Sacramento, a couple of weeks ago. In the last meeting here at Cleveland, the Cavs beat the Kings by 20. This one should also turn ugly. 

The Kings also had the misfortune of facing Cleveland off b2b losses the last time the teams met. However, this will mark the first time that the Cavs played a home game, following b2b losses. Needless to say, they're going to be in a foul mood and looking to make amends. 

With tomorrow off and Brooklyn on deck the next day, the Cavs have no reason to look ahead, or to hold back. Including this season's win, the Cavs have defeated the Kings four straight times. Those victories came by an average of 13 points. Fully motivated, I expect the Cavs to exceed that average here. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN 10* BEST BET. I respect the Zips and succesfully backed them in their last game. However, I feel that the value lies the other way tonight. These teams faced each other a few weeks ago, at Akron. The Broncos gave the Zips a pretty good challenge, losing by seven, while listed as double-digit underdogs. They're a MUCH better team at home, too.

In fact, the Broncos arguably have the biggest home/road disparity in the league. They're 0-11 SU in road/neutral games but 6-1 when playing at home. (The lone home loss came by five points, when they were +6 point underdogs.) Meanwhile, Akron is only 2-3 SU in true road games and both victories came by fewer than five points. 

Western Michigan, which has already covered the spread against the likes of UCLA, Washington and Villanova, is 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. Akron, on the other hand, is just 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. 

The Broncos are 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. That includes a 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) record their past three times in that role. During the same stretch, Akron was only 2-4 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

With the Broncos at 14-5 ATS the last 19 (5-1 ATS L6) times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, going against this very talented Golden State team can be a bit hard on the nerves. However, this should be an excellent spot to do so. Off three straight victories, the Heat are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. They already played the Warriors fairly tough at Golden State, losing by 12 as +14.5 point underdogs. They also covered the spread in both meetings against the Warriors last season, losing by six and eight points.

While the Heat had yesterday off, the Warriors are off an afternoon game against the Magic. This will actually mark the first time since before Christmas that they played two games in two days. The last time that they were in that spot was on 12/23, when they failed to cover at Detroit. 

While they covered a larger number yesterday, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. With the Heat at 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season, I'm grabbing all those generous points.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE Divisional GAME OF MONTH. These teams are neck-and-neck in the Southeast division. Washington is 23-20 overall. Charlotte is 23-21. Both teams have been much better at home. The Hornets are 15-7 at home but 8-14 on the road. Likewise, the Wizards are 18-6 at home but only 5-14 on the road. Not surprisingly, the Wizards finished on top when the teams met at Washington. With this evening's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the Hornets to have the advantage. 

Both teams had Sunday off. While the Hornets have tomorrow off, the Wizards play Boston tomorrow, a team which recently defeated them. 

The 109-106 loss at Washington notwithstanding, the Hornets have been outstanding against divisional opponents. They're 6-1 SU/ATS against fellow Southeast opponents. The Hornets won both meetings here last season, taking them by an average of nine points. I expect them to finish on top once again.

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. While they've failed to cover a few recently, the Eagles are the currently the class of the Sun Belt. They're a perfect 6-0 in conference action. While they've been involved in a few close ones lately, this should be a good spot for them to break through with a big win. 

The Chanticleers are off a terrible effort last time out, losing by 20 at Georgia State. They're now just 1-6 in true road games. ALL six losses came by double-digits. While Coastal Carolina connects on only 37.2% of its field goals away from home, Georgia State hits 49.4% of its field goals at home, while keeping its guests below the 40% mark. 

With the Eagles outscoring opponents by an average score of 90 to 71.4 at home, the Chanticleers' road woes figure to continue for another day. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON 10* PERS FAV. Playing in the ACC is tough; the Tigers have just completed a difficult stretch which included Louisville, Virginia, UNC and Notre Dame. While the Hokies aren't slouches either, this is a game that the Tigers know that they need to take advantage of. Clemson is 4-2 ATS its last six when favored at home in the -3.5 to -6 range, 1-0 ATS this season. While the Hokies won last time out, that win came at home, against G-Tech. They're 0-2 SU/ATS off a conference win and only mediocre on the road. The Hokies won a close one at VT last season but the Tigers pounded them by 21 the last meeting here at Clemson. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Suns are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, for the fifth time this season, the Raptors are going to be highly motivated to get back on track. 

In each of the previous four instances that the Raptors had lost two straight, they responded by winning their next game. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games, including 1-0 SU/ATS when playing here at Toronto.

In addition to wanting to "get back on track," the Raptors will be motivated by the fact that Suns upset them, at Phoenix, a few weeks ago. 

A look back at that 12/29 game at Phoenix reveals that the Raptors were off a big game against Golden State the night before and playing their third game in four days. 

The shoe is on the other foot this time though. Not only are the Raptors playing at home, but this time they're the rested team. Phoenix, on the other hand, is off a game at MSG last night, vs. its former coach. In addition to the back-to-back spot, the Suns will be playing their third game in four days. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* CONF GAME OF YEAR. While they lost a couple of games here to begin the year, the Lobos have long been known for their homecourt advantage. Off back-to-back impressive road wins, I expect them to carry the positive momentum back to their home floor this evening. 

The Lobos have just accomplished something that no other team has done before, defeating San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State, all on the road, all in the same season. That's not something thats done by fluke. This is a very capable group of Lobos. They're going to have a ton of confidence entering today's game and will be hungry to keep the roll going. 

The Cowboys are off a road win of their own. However, that was their first road victory in conference play and it came against lowly San Jose State. This will mark the third time that the played two straight true road games. In each of the previous two instances, they lost the second of those b2b game by double-digits. 

While the Lobos are averaging 82 ppg their last five, the Cowboys are allowing 82.4 ppg their last five. 

New Mexico coach Craig Neal knows how important this game is and knows his team needs to take care of business at home. He commented: "Unfortunate that we didn't take care of the two home games. But I think our guys are in a good place." 

I also believe that Neal's crew, which is now 14-7 ATS its last 21 in January, is "in a good place." I expect them to put up a big number here with the Cowboys unable to keep up. *top Mountain West play

I'm playing on NY 10* REVENGE GAME OF YEAR. While the Suns certainly have some capable players, the Knicks have the superior lineup. They're also much better at home than the Suns are on the road. The Knicks are 12-10 SU (14-8 ATS) here at MSG, the Suns are just 6-18 on the road. The Suns consistently give up a lot of points and they allow more than 113 ppg away from Phoenix.

Speaking of bad defense, NY has been at its best, when coming off a sub-par defensive effort. Off a 113-110 loss against the Wizards last time out, note that the Knicks are a lucrative 17-8 ATS the past 25 times that they'd given up 105 or more points in their previous game. 

Looking at the game from a motivation standpoint and the Knicks should be the hungrier team. For starters, they're fighting for their playoff lives in the East, while the Suns are playing out the string in the West. If the season ended today, the Knicks would be out. They know they can't afford to squander a home game against the team with the worst record in the West. 

There's more to it than that though. Current NY coach Jeff Hornacek was fired by the Suns. The Knicks talked about winning his return to Phoenix for him last month but the Suns spoiled those plans by beating them, in OT. After that game, Hornacek commented: "I don't think we came out with the intensity that we needed to play the game."

Expect Hornacek to have his team ready to go. In this case, the 'revenge' factor is real.

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 8* BLOWOUT. The Aggies, who advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, have admittedly  gotten off to a tough start this season. Thats partly due to a difficult schedule and partly due to losses suffered from last year's team. That said, I still believe that they're a little better than their record indicates and I expect them to be "ready to go" on Saturday afternoon. Off an upset loss last time out and knowing their next two games are on the road, the Aggies know that they can absolutely cannot afford another loss this afternoon. 

Prior to the Arkansas loss, a game they let get away, the Aggies won their previous home game (LSU) by 30 points. This is still a team which gave UCLA all it could handle earlier in the season. 

The Bulldogs have been tough at home but only mediocre on the road. Georgia coach Mark Fox noted this of the Aggies: "... I think they're way better than what their record shows. I do think they have a really good balance between inside and outside scoring ..."

While the visiting team has taken the last couple of meetings, I look for homecourt to be the difference this afternoon. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers actually come in hotter. However, I still believe that the Blazers are the superior team and I expect them to show it this evening. 

Fighting for their playoff lives, the Blazers can ill afford a winless road trip. Their recent skid has seen them fall to 9th, a half game back of Denver. Knowing that tomorrow night's game at Boston will be tough, they know that they absolutely need to take care of business at Philly tonight. Note that the Blazers are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. 

For the past few weeks, there's been quite a lot of talk of a trade between these teams. Fairly rich at center, he 76ers may be interested in dealing Noel, as his contract expires at the end of the season.  McCollum has been a big part of most of those discussions. Look for him and Lillard to lead the way tonight, their edge in the backcourt ultimately making the difference.

I'm playing on AKRON 10* MAC GAME OF YEAR. These teams are both on top of their respective divisions. With a 15-3 overall record, Akron is #1 in the MAC East. At 12-6, Eastern Michigan is tied with NIU and Ball State for the top overall record in the MAC West. Playing at home, where they remain undefeated on the season, I expect the Zips to have the advantage here.

The Zips have yet to lose at home all season long. They dropped their opening road game of the season and have since proceeded to go 15-2, the only losses coming at Gonzaga and Creighton. As of this writing, those teams are a combined 35-1. So, there's no shame in those losses. At home, the Zips are outscoring teams by a commanding 83.8 to 63.7 average margin.

Going back further finds that Akron has actually won 26 straight games here, the third longest active streak in the country.

The Eagles have also been tough to beat on their home floor. However, they're only 4-5 when not playing at home, 3-5 in true road games. 

While the Zips allow only 63.7 ppg on their home floor, the Eagles allow more than 76 ppg on the road. 

While the Zips are 7-1-1 ATS (9-0 SU) the last nine times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -6 range, during the same stretch, the Eagles are 3-11 ATS (2-12 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. 

All things considered, the number could easily be higher. Expect the Zips to continue their homecourt dominance. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. The Broncos have been a profitable team when matched up against the Bulldogs in recent seasons. As per usual, Gonzaga has a strong team. The Bulldogs have been playing well, too. That said, I feel that this line will prove to be too high. Last time out, the Bulldogs blew out St. Mary's. As the Gaels have been the primary rival in the WCC for years, that could well be cause for a bit of an emotional letdown.

The Broncos aren't slouches and I expect them to be come ready to play. Santa Clara is off back-to-back road wins. In their last home game, the Broncos crushed Portland by a 70-42 margin. In fact, they've won each of their last four home games by double-digits. 

The Broncos have only lost one game by more than 15 points all season. That came on the road. All three of their home losses came by single-digits. They were +15-point underdogs the last time that they hosted the Bulldogs and lost by only two. I expect the Broncos to give them all they can handle, once again. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GAME OF WEEK. Its been more than a decade since these teams met in the finals now. While neither will be returning anytime soon, both are coming off impresive upset wins. The Mavs knocked off the Bulls last time out, earning their third straight win. The Heat defeated a red hot Houston team. I believe Miami will be the team which "stays hot" here. 

Though they had yesterday off, the Mavs have done alot of travel lately. After playing at Minnesota, they faced Phoenix in Mexico City. Then, back to Dallas, before moving on to Chicago. Note that they've only won b2b road games once all season. Tomorrow, they'll return home to host Utah. 

The Heat, on the other hand, have tomorrow off. and they haven't played a game outside of Miami since 1/13. While "winning streaks" have been few and far between, I believe that they're going to be hungry to follow up the win against Houston with another victory. 

A look at Miami's schedule shows that each of their recent victories has been followed by a road game. So, thats made winning consecutive games tough. They're well aware that tonight's game - against a Dallas team which is an ugly 6-16 on the road - provides them with an excellent opportunity. 

Its been a few weeks since the Heat were favored. The last time that they were laying points was before Christmas for a game against the Lakers. They won and covered. I expect the Heat, who won and covered both meetings against the Mavs last season, to protect their homecourt, taking advantage of a beatable opponent and winning back-to-back games for the first time in 2017. 

I'm playing on IOWA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps bring the higher ranking into tonight's game. However, I expect the Hawkeyes to be the team which finishes on top. Its true that they've had trouble away from home. However, the Hawkeyes have continued to play very well here. In their last home game, they knocked off a strong Purdue team. That brought them to a perfect 7-0 their last seven games here. That includes a 78-64 blowout of Iowa State, which happened to be ranked #25 at the time. 

The Terps, who are off a 62-56 win at Illinois, will be playing their second straight on the road. That marks the first time that they will have played consecutive true road games this season. Note that they're just 9-16 ATS their last 25 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game, 2-3 ATS in that situation so far this season. The last time that they allowed less than 60 points, also against Illinois, they proceeded to lose outright vs. Nebraska in their next game. 

Behind a big effort from senior guard Peter Jok, who took the blame for the NW loss, look for the Hawkeyes, who won by 16 the last time they hosted the Terps, to bounce back and continue their strong play at home for another day. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Kings beat the Pacers in both games last season. That included a 108-97 victory here at Sacramento, almost exactly one year ago. I like their chances again tonight. 

This is the final game of a homestand for the Kings. Knowing that their next eight games will come on the road, including one at Indiana, the Kings should be highly motivated to earn a victory tonight. Note that they're already a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points. 

I like the Pacers as a team and believe that they're probably a little better than their record indicates. That said, they've been terrible away from home all season. Indeed, they're 5-14 (SU and ATS!) on the road and that includes an 0-3 ATS mark as road underdogs of three or fewer points.

With the Pacers also an ugly 2-7 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the Kings. 

 I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* GOW. I won with the Panthers in their last game. That 79-60 blowout of Drake snapped an extended losing streak; I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's contest. Note that they're 29-4 SU the last 33 times that they were off a conference win. 

While the Ramblers have been impressive at home, they've only won two of their six true road games. That includes a 4-point loss at Drake, the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference. While they were favored for the Drake game, the Ramblers are also already 0-1 SU/ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, having lost at Toledo. 

On the other hand, the Panthers are an impressive 24-11 ATS (25-10 SU) the past 35 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points.

The Panthers, who lost earlier this month at Loyola-Chicago, are also 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. They're 39-9 SU the last 48 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 10* ANNIHILATOR. This season's Razorbacks have yet to lose against a team from Texas. However, I expect that to change this evening. Admittedly, the Aggies didn't play too well last time out, turning the ball over far too many times. That was on the road though. Some of you may recall that I also played on the Aggies in their most recent home game, a 30-point destruction of LSU. This is a team, battle-tested against the likes of UCLA, which has been much better on its home floor. Arkanasas, which has long struggled away from home, has still only played three true road games, losing two of them. 

Last season's game at Arkansas was close, the Aggies winning by three. However, the game here at College Station resulted in a 23-point rout, the Aggies moving to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host in this series. 

As of this writing, the O/U line is 146.5, across the board. While that may well change throughout the course of the day, I mention it because the Aggies are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The LSU beating was the most recent. (During the same stretch, Arkansas was 9-15 ATS and 7-17 SU when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range.) Ultimately, look for homecourt to again prove the difference, the Aggies earning the win and cover.

I'm playing on G-TOWN 10* PERS FAV. Though they were unable to cover, I believe that the Hoyas will be able to carry some positive momentum from Saturday's victory over UConn. The Hoyas were down big in that one but were able to storm back in the second half. Off that momentum-building comeback, the Hoyas will now get a chance to avenge a recent loss at Providence. While the Friars are an outstanding 11-1 when listed as the home team, they're a dismal 1-6 in seven games away from Providence. They won a neutral site game against Memphis in November and have lost every game away from Providence since. That includes a loss at lowly Depaul, last time out. Payback time. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* MAIN EVENT. As you know the Cavs knocked off the Warriors in the Finals last season. As you may also be aware, the Cavs beat the Warriors on Christmas Day, too. Those results should ensure we see the Warriors' very best game on Monday night. I expect that to be enough for a convincing win and cover. While they're an oustanding 18-3 at Cleveland, the Cavs are a medicore 11-7 on the road. The Warriors, also 18-3 at home, are an excellent 32-17-2 ATS (42-9 SU) the past few seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' Payback time. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played against the Pistons in each of their past three games. In each case, I had reasons why. (Feel free to scroll through my past results/picks to find out what those reasons were.) Tonight, however, I believe the Pistons are going to be extremely motivated to close out their road trip with a victory. This is a trip which started out very well, before turning sour in the second half of the Sacramento game. A win tonight will salvage the trip, or at least keep it from being a complete disaster. 

The Lakers aren't a good team and they currently aren't playing well. They're off three straight losses, all coming by double-digits. The most recent of those came against the Clippers yesterday, putting LA in a back-to-back spot. (The Pistons had yesterday off.)

This is projected to be a fairly high-scoring game and that figures to also favor Detroit. The Pistons don't generally see too many O/U lines this high. However, they are 2-1 ATS on the season when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 7-3-1 ATS (7-4 SU) their last 11 in that situation. Going back further finds them at a profitable 30-14-1 ATS the last 45 times that they played a game with a total of 210 or greater. With the Lakers now a money-burning 27-46-3 ATS (18-58 SU) the past couple of seasons, with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the rested and motivated visitors. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. After winning with them a couple of game ago, in their victory over the Grizzlies, I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game, a double-digit loss at Minnesota. I feel that this will be another good spot to go against them. 

I won with the Kings two games ago, as they delivered an inspired comeback win against the Pistons. They were unable to follow that up with another victory but thats not surprising, given that they were up against the Cavs. This year's Thunder are beatable (on the road) though. In fact, the Kings already hammered them here (116-101) earlier this season. Including that result, OKC is just 9-11 on the road, getting outscored by an average margin of 107.3 to 102.6. (The Kings score more points than that here at home, while allowing less.)

Both teams had yesterday off. The Thunder have a showdown vs. the Clippers on deck tomorrow though, followed by a date with Golden State, while the Kings have the next two days off. 

The Kings have been at their best off a big loss this season, going 8-3 ATS (7-4 SU) when off a double-digit loss. I like their chances of scoring the upset. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 8* ANNIHIALTOR. The Panthers are still seeking their first conference win and the Bulldogs should provide the perfect opportunity. Its true that Drake has played better since Jeff Rutter (a former UNI assistant) took over as coach. However, they're far from being a strong team. All their "success" has come at home too, as the Bulldogs are 0-8 when playing away from home. They've lost their two 2017 road games by 39 combined points. The Panthers are 23-4 SU (17-5 ATS in lined games) their last 27 against sub-500 teams. They've dominated Drake for years and they won last year's two games by 49 combined points, including a 77-44 destruction here at NIU. Look for them to "get healthy" with another double-digit win this afternoon. 

I’m playing on WASHINGTON. The 76ers earned a rare win last night. Don't expect it to happen again. The Wizards, who had the past two nights off, come in with a score to settle. Thats because the 76ers beat them earlier. Thats going to ensure that they don't overlook them and it should help in "keeping the pedal to the metal" the entire way. Note that the Wizards a profitable 14-7 ATS when playing with 'revenge.' Off a 117-108 loss at Boston on Wednesday, its also worth noting that the Wizards are 15-9 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. Prior to that loss, they'd covered three straight. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. While the Spurs will likely have quite a few fans cheering for them, I believe that that the Suns already having played here gives them a considerable advantage. The Spurs had to travel here and adjust. The Suns have already got a game under their belts down here, a chance to adjust to the altitude and become familiar with the nets. I don't mind that they lost (I won with the Over) as it should add to their hunger here; they'd like to salvage a split out of the trip. Off a 40-point win, the Spurs, who had last year's trip here "smoked out," could easily get caught looking past the Suns, a team which they've already beaten them twice by double-diigits. That figures to prove costly, as no team has beaten the Suns by more than 11 yet in 2017. Given the situation, I feel the number is generously high and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on VT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Irish have a strong team this season and are playing well. They're worthy of their top 25 ranking and already have some impressive road wins under their belt. That said, this is a very tough spot, as they'll be playing their second ACC tough road game in three days.

That may not sound like much but its a situation that will only happen to three other teams in the ACC this season. In addition to ND, only Duke, UNC and Louisville will have to play two ACC road games with a day in between this reg. season. Don't expect the Hokies to show them any sympathy. VT was one of three teams to have to play two ACC road games in 3 days last season; the Hokies lost both games. 

The Hokies know this is a great opportunity. They're undefeated on this floor including a double-digit win over Duke. True, the Blue Devils were without Allen for that one. Stil, this is a VT team which plays with confidence on its home floor. Off a double-digit win against Syracuse here last time out, they've now won 15 straight here.

The Hokies gave the Irish all they could handle at ND last year, losing by two as double-digit underdogs. With the schedule and venue now in their favor, I expect them to return the favor, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on UTAH 10* MAIN EVENT. I don't mean to keep picking on the Pistons, but this is another tough spot for them. The loss at Sacramento was of the "deflating" variety, as they coughed up a big second half lead against one of the weaker teams in the West. Last night, they got blown out by the best offensive team in the league. Now, playing the second of b2b games and their third game in four days, the Pistons have to take on the league's stingiest team.

The Jazz allow just 94.9 points per game. Next best is San Antonio and the Spurs allow 97.9. At home, the Jazz allow a mere 93 points per game. Opposing teams shoot just 41.9% from the field here. By comparison, the Pistons allow 103.8 ppg on the road, allowing teams to hit 46.9% from the field. 

Last night's game was costly, in that Pope went down to injury. As of this writing, he's listed as questionable. He did fly to Utah with the team, where he'll have an MRI today. I'm guessing he doesn't play though, given that he looked to be in considerable pain. He gives them a ton of minutes and figures to be missed. Either way, the Pistons are going to have some trouble. 

The Pistons are just 2-5 SU/ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've been in that situation twice (vs. Indiana on 12/17 and at Charlotte on 12/7) since the start of December and lost by double-digits each time. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Warriors haven't covered for some time but I feel this will be a great spot for them to explode with a lopsided win. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game, backing the Kings on Tuesday. That one didn't look good at all, as the Pistons were up double-digits in the second half. In fact, they stretched the lead all the way to 18 at one point. However, the Kings made a run and the Pistons couldn't answer.

As The Detroit News called it, that was a "devastating loss." The Pistons had won back-to-back games and a victory would have had them riding a 3-game winning streak and bringing some confidence into tonight's game. That didn't happen though and I expect Tuesday's second half meltdown to have a negative effect on them tonight.

Though they haven't covered, the Warriors have still won their last two games by double-digits. While the Pistons are now 8-13 (SU and ATS) on the road, the Warriors are 17-3 here at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of 14.4 points here. Note that they beat the Pistons by 14 here last season. 

The Warriors had yesterday off and they haven't had to play back-to-back games (two games in two days) since before Christmas. After tonight's game, they get a few days off. In other words, there's no reason to hold back or save themselves.

The Warriors are 72-52-4 ATS when off a double-digit win the past 2+ seasons, 19-1 SU their last 20. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way here. 

I'm playing on MIDDLE TENN. STATE 10* PERS FAV. This is a big game between the last two with undefeated records in C-USA. The Thundering Herd have had this one circled ever since the Blue Raiders knocked them out of the conference tournament last season. As you may recall, the Raiders would go on to the NCAA Tournament, where they'd knock off Michigan State, a stunning #15 vs. #2 seed upset.

Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for though. Wanting to beat the Raiders and actually doing so are two different matters. While last year's tourney loss was at a neutral site, the Herd are 0-2 SU/ATS their last two visits here, losing by an average of 24 points. Middle Tennessee State outscored them by a combined 173-125 margin. Including those results, the Raiders are a dominating 72-13 here since the 2011-12 season.

Sure, Marshall is expected to get Terrence Thompson back, after he missed a dozen games or so. He's likely to be eased in though. Marshall's coach Dan D'Antoni noted: "If we win, it's a big step up. If we lose, they're going to make us better." Given that the only road wins Marhall has are at FAU and FIU, I expect it to be the latter. Raiders with a statement win. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The Tigers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Tigers' football team pounded the Aggies here a little less than two months ago, winning by 15 points. I expect the Aggies' basketball team to avenge that 11/24 loss in a big way Wednesday, winning by at least as big a margin. 

To say this is is a "must win" game for the Aggies, who are 0-3 in SEC play, is an understatement. Remember, this is a team which went to the Sweet 16 last season, its 13th appearance at the Big Dance. They're likely going to need 21 wins to get in there this season and there are only 16 games + the SEC Tournament remaining. Basically, if they don't win this game, they'd need to score an upset against either WVU or Kentucky. Needless to say, taking care of business here should be a much easier task. 

The Tigers are off a 17-point loss vs. Mississippi State last time out, their third loss in four games. Those three losses came by an average of greater than 19 points. 

While the Aggies have several losses, they've been close to winning some big games. They stayed within four points of both ranked USC and Arizona. When the Aggies have won, its mostly been by a comfortable margin; three of their last four victories have been by a minimum of 12 points. They're stepping down in class here, while the Tigers are stepping up in class. 

The Aggies were laying -7.5 when hosting the Tigers last January. They won by 14. That brought them to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host of the Tigers and 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven. Badly in need of a big win, I'm expecting another double-digit margin.

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. The Thunder will have payback on their minds as the Grizzllies embarrassed them, at Memphis, less than two weeks ago. The Grizzlies won that 12/29 game by 34 points. While the Thunder are below .500 on the road, they're 14-6 here at home. The loss at Memphis was the start of a stretch which saw the Thunder lose four of five. However,  off back-to-back double-digit blowout wins, they're healthy now and have found their groove. They beat the Grizzlies by 18 here last January and by 16 the previous meeting. Revenge will be even sweeter, in front of the national TV audience.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Rockets are obviously red hot, I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them. I backed  the Wolves in their last game, a 9-point win on Monday and liked what I saw from them. Off that momentum-building win, unlike their guests, the Wolves had yesterday off. Meanwhile, Houston was busy beating Charlotte. Its true that the Rockets have fared quite well when playing the second of b2b games. However, this will also be their third game in four nights and their fifth game in the past seven days. I could see it finally catching up to them here. The Wolves already gave the Rockets all they could handle here a month ago, losing by just two points. Like now, the Rockets were rolling at the time and also coming off a win the previous night. Look for the Wolves to give them all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* ANNIHILATOR. I successfully backed the Aztecs on Christmas Day, in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic tournament in Hawaii. That trip resulted in a bit of a hangover, as they came back and home and were upset by the Lobos on New Year's Day. Not all that shocking a loss, given the travel and holidays. Next, the Aztecs had to play back-to-back road games. They battled in each but ended up coming up short in both of them. Thats going to have them in a foul mood tonight; they'll be looking to take out their anger on somebody and the Spartans, which lost their last two road games by 25 and 19 points, should be the perfect team to do that against. Note that the Aztecs won by 32 points earlier this season, after losing three straight. Including that victory, they're 4-2-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the last seven times that they were off three consecutive pointspread defeats, 29-17-4 ATS their last 50. The Aztecs won last season's meetings by 15 and 22 points. I'm expecting another blowout.

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* PERS FAV. Off three straight losses, knowing they've got three fairly difficult games (Cleveland, OKC, Indiana) on deck, followed by a tough road trip, one which will include a game against these same Pistons, the Kings are going to be very hungry to take care of business this evening. Note that they're 4-1 ATS off three consecutive losses and 7-3 ATS off a double-digit loss. While the Pistons are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the Kings are 2-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. With the Pistons also at 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range, I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. Off four straight losses, the T-Wolves could really use a big win. Tonight should be the perfect spot to get one. While the T-Wolves admittedly haven't been great at home, they at least do outscore teams by a slight margin here. The Mavericks, on the other hand, get outscored by a 102.7 to 94.6 margin on the road, where they're just 4-15. While Dallas scores 94.6 ppg on the road, Minnesota scores 104.3 ppg here at home. 

In recent seasons, the Mavs have had their way with the T-Wolves. This year's Dallas team isn't as strong as past teams though while the talented young T-Wolves' players are slowly getting better. Knowing that they'll face the Mavs again at Dallas, in less than a week, the T-Wolves should be particularly anxious to "hold serve" at home and to finally get a win against a team which has had their number. Off a cover against the Jazz on Saturday, the T-Wolves are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they'd lost three or more (SU games) in a row. I expect them to improve on those stats here, the Mavs falling to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE 10* PERS FAV. While they didn't cover, I really like the way that the Panthers won their last game. Down seven points late, in danger of losing three in a row, playing without freshman guard D'Marcus Simonds for the third consecutive game, and also with Jeremy Hollowell and Willie Clayton having both fouled out, the Panthers closed the game on an 8-0 run to win by a point. While they may again be without Simonds, currently questionable as of this writing, now the Panthers know that they can win without him. Thats the type of comeback victory that they can build positive momentum from. 

While the Panthers are off a momentum-building win, the Trojans are off back-to-back close (deflating) road losses. They haven't played a game on their home floor in ages, as their last six have all been on the road, or a neutral site. They finally play at home next game, but look for the road-weariness to hit them here. The home team won both meetings last season and homecourt means a lot to both teams again this year. Troy is 3-7 away from home, Georgia State is 5-1 at home. The Trojans score 72.5 on the road while the Panthers score 85.3 at home. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* BEST BET. These teams have battled each other for the top spot in the conference in recent seasons. Both lost some key personnel from last year's teams. Admittedly, the Shockers have adjusted much better than the Panthers, at least thus far. Despite losing their three top scorers from last season, the Shockers are undefeated in conference action and 13-3 overall. While the Panthers overall record is indeed pretty poor, keep in mind that they've faced the likes of UNC, Iowa and Xavier (twice). They've beaten teams like Oklahoma and Arizona State and no team has beaten them by more than four points on this floor. They're only allowing 57.4 ppg here. While the Shockers are off a couple of blowout wins, those both came at home and both against weaker teams. They won their last road game by eight. The last two meetings were both decided by five points or less. Don't be surprised when this one also proves closer than most will be expecting.

I'm playing on UAB 10* GAME OF WEEK. Admittedly, losing Nick Norton back in November was a blow. However, these Blazers are still a formidable team. A look at the Blazers' schedule shows that the've alternated wins and losses all season long. Every win has been followed by a loss. Every loss has been followed by a win. Much of that has been due to circumstance though, as the Blazers have had to play against team like Kansas and St. Mary's after a win, as well as at venues like Memphis, Texas and Middle Tennessee State. Rice can also be pretty tough to beat at home. However, I believe that the battle-tested Blazers will be up for the challenge. This is a team that still believes its the best in the conference. Having already lost at Middle Tennessee State on this trip, followed by a win at North Texas, the Blazers badly want to assert themselves - and to finally win two in a row - with a victory here. 

The Owls are just 4-7-1 ATS when laying points the past 2+ seasons and that includes an 0-1 ATS mark when listed as home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While the Blazers, who were 14-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when facing a team witha winning record through at least 15 games of the season, have had a chance to bounce back from their loss to the Blue Raiders, the Owls have not. UAB comes off a potentially momentum-building 2-point win while Rice comes off a potentially deflating 3-point loss. Note that the Owls, who lost that one by an 80-77 score, are just 6-10 ATS their last 16 lined games, after allowing 80 or more points. UAB has won five of the past six meetings, including a 12-point win last January. With both teams off very close games, I could see this one also coming down to the wife and am taking the points. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. This is a tough spot for the Knicks. Last night, they gave everything they had in their game at Milwaukee. To their credit, they fought back, erased a huge second half deficit and won the game. However, they used a ton of energy to do so. Keep in mind that they've still lost six of seven. Now, off that extremely hard-fought battle and playing their sixth game in the past nine days, they'll take on a rested and rejuvenated Pacers team which is enjoying its best stretch of the season. Note that NY is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The Knicks lost those six games by 79 combined points, an average loss of more than 13 points. Five of the six losses came by a minimum of seven points. 

Finally starting to play up their potential, the Pacers have won four straight, covering all in all four of those. Three of those four games came here at Indiana and all three resulted in double-digit victories. While the Knicks beat them at MSG just before Christmas, the Pacers have dominated them here at Indiana in recent seasons. The most recent meeting here resulted in a 12-point Pacer win, last April. With the schedule firmy in their favor, I expect them revenge-minded Pacers to keep rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 8* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Pirates have been winning but not covering. They're 11-3 in the standings by 4-8 at the betting window. This should be a good spot to pick up a win in both those columns. A look at the first part of this season's schedule shows that the Pirates never had much of a chance to catch their breath in 2016. Since their opening game on 11/11, they didn't have a break of more than four nights until after their 12/17 win against Delaware. After getting five nights off, they responded with a win and cover vs. Rutgers. They came out of the Christmas Break (still only with four nights off) and lost at Creighton - no shame in that - before beating Marquette by three last time out, failing to cover (against the closing line) by half a point.

While they may not have beaten the closing number, the Pirates figure to gain some positive momentum from the win over Marquette. Having not played since New Year's Day, they've finally got some proper time off. Note that with the Rutgers win, they're 6-1 ATS and 7-1 SU the last eight times that they played with five or six day's rest.

While the Pirates bring some positive momentun, the Blue Demons are going the other way. They've lost four straight are winless on the road. While the Blue Demons are averaging 62 ppg on the road, the Pirates are outscoring teams by a 81.7 to 65.7 margin here at home. With three straight road games on deck, I expect them be all business here. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are cathing the Clippers at the right time. Not only is Griffin out, but Paul is also expected to miss Friday's game. He's currently listed as doubtful. Even if he were to play, however, I like the Kings' chances tonight. The Kings looked fairly impressive in winning at Denver in their first 2017 game but couldn't follow it up with another victory, when playing the second of b2b games. They had yesterday off though and they're coming in looking to settle a score with an instate "rival" which has dominated them here in recent seasons. The Kings, 8-5 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, are 3-1 ATS against divisional opponents thus far while the Clippers are just 2-3 ATS. I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on VALPARAISO 10* MAIN EVENT. This is a huge game in the Horizon. While I repect Oakland, I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. The Crusaders, 7-1 at home this season, were the regular season champs last season, winning 25 games. With a total in the mid-high 140s, note that the Crusaders are a highly profitable 40-22 ATS over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a home game with O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. During that stretch, on the other hand, the Golden Grizzlies are just 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. The women's Grizzlies absolutely destroyed the women's Crusaders team on New Year's Eve. Look for the men to exact some revenge here, showing that they're still the team to beat in the Horizon. At least, for now. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY 10* HC GAME OF YEAR. If you're looking for an "exciting" Friday game in the Horizon, you'd probably be better served checking out Oakland/Valparaiso. (They're currently the top two teams in the conference and they'll be going head-to-head at 9 ET on ESPN2.) Thats because I expect this one to be pretty lopsided. 

While the Valparaiso/Oakland game might be stealing the spotlight, its the Phoenix who lead the Horizon League in scoring. They're averaging a whopping 80.8 ppg. They've won four in a row and have scored 90 or more in three of those. They're going to come in full of confidence and knowing that they'll be gaining a game against one of the top two teams in the conference, provided they take care of business tonight. 

While the Phoenix are averaging over 80 ppg and over 90 ppg on their home floor, the Panthers are averaging a paltry 65.3 overall and just 64 away from home. Given their offensive shortcomings, its not all that surprising to learn that the Panthers are an ugly 5-12 ATS (4-13 SU) their last 17 against teams which score more than 77 ppg. 

The Panthers are playing their third straight road game, the first time that they opened Horizon League play with three straight on the road since the 2000-2001 season. Now 1-7 on the road, they've only played four games in their own building. Competing hard but coming up short in the first two games figures to take a toll on them here. The Panthers could have easily beaten Youngstown State but ended up blowing it and losing 88-87, in OT. They gave up a game-tying 3-pointer with 0.2 seconds left in that one. Next, they fought back late at Cleveland State, only to come up short. Now losers of six straight, its going to be hard for them to have much confidence. 

While the Panthers tested them last season, the Phoeix have still dominated them in recent seasons. I expect them to put up a big number again tonight, and for the Panthers to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* BEST BET. While the Magic had last night off, the Rockets were involved in a hard-fought battle against the Thunder, a 118-116 thriller. Harden and Westbrook are battling for the MVP and the two battled each other pretty hard last night. Harden, one of four Rockets to play more than 30 minutes, was on the flloor for 38 minutes.

While the Rockets have proven that they can win when playing their second game in two nights, not all b2b spots are equal and last night's game (an MVP showdown, which came down the wire, on National TV) was the type of game that it can be easy to have a bit of an emotional letdown from. Also, off that win and with Toronto on deck, they could easily look past lowly Orlando. Either way, I expect the rested Magic to be ready for them. 

The Magic played the Rockets tough in both games last season, covering in each of them. They lost by just five at Houston (as +9 point underdogs) and they won 104-101 in the game here at Orlando. Harden got his points (31) but the Magic limited his time spent on the free throw line and played a solid team game themselves. Including those results, Orlando is actually 16-8-1 ATS its last 25 against teams from the Southwest. Knowing that they hit the road for six games after this, the Magic should be highly motivated to take care of business at home before they go. Like last year, I expect them to give the Rockets all they can handle again here, with a great shot at another outright win.