10* Play on Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So, as alluded to in the promo for this pick, two nights ago saw me win with a Missouri State team that had previously been pretty dreadful at the pay window this season. But that didn't stop them from going to Indiana State and winning outright, 72-57, in shockingly easy fashion. I'm not saying this dog is going to win that easy, or even win outright, but we're getting a really good value on Middle Tennessee due to their terrible 1-12 ATS record this season. That's the worst ATS record in the country right now. But tonight they're facing a Southern Miss team that's lost three in a row and getting double digits. I say take the points.

Not only has Middle Tennessee not been covering, they haven't been winning much either. Their last SU victory came back on November 16th against Charleston Southern, 76-73, a game they were favored to win by 9.5 points. Their only other two SU wins both came against non-DI competition. The Blue Raiders have taken on some tough competition over the last two months, facing the likes of Virginia, Butler, Vanderbilt, Murray State and Ole Miss. I won't bore you w/ the particulars, but it generally hasn't been a fun time. That said, conference play has opened w/ a pair of close losses, the first time they've started 0-2 in C-USA in over a decade. The Blue Raiders were actually favored their  last time out (vs. FAU) and led by seven points at halftime. So that's a step in the right direction. 

As bad as things have been for Middle Tennessee this year, I remain unconvinced that Southern Miss should be a DD fave in this spot, even in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles are coming off a brutal six-game road trip, which ended w/ three consecutive defeats. They've generally been competitive, even against the likes of Wichita State and Kansas State, but competitive "won't cut it" in this price range. Setting aside a couple wins against non-DI opponents, USM has not won many games by significant margins this season. They even lost to a non-DI team, William Carey, back on November 25th! It's an 0-5 ATS record for the Golden Eagles as chalk this season. 10* Play on Middle Tennessee 

10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): I don't understand the way this line is moving - at all. The home team (UC Riverside) is clearly the better side here, yet not even getting the "token" respect one deserves when playing in their own gym. Perhaps this is because Cal State Northridge comes in on a 5-0 ATS run. But the Matadors have dropped B2B games SU, losing by five at San Diego State, then by four at home to Yale. Those close calls may very well have taken something out of it the Matadors (especially the Yale game as it went to OT) heading into tonight's Big West opener where UC Riverside will be primed for a big performance. 

Recently, I took UC Riverside in a big spot and they delivered. It was here at home, December 22nd, against a Loyola Marymount team that had lost only one game all season. As nine-point dogs, the Highlanders delivered for me in a major way, winning outright 60-53. Then came one of the more brutal B2B road games I've seen any team have to play all season. Wrapping up 2018, they had to play at Air Force and Western Michigan in a three-day span. That's quite a bit of holiday travel and sure enough the Highlanders dropped both games. But upon returning home last week, they crushed Bethesda (non-DI school) 112-47 in a "tune up" for conference play. 

UC Riverside is 5-1 SU at home this season, allowing just 59 PPG. That's a far cry from the kind of defense Cal State Northridge plays as they're allowing 83.6 PPG this season (345th in the country!). Again, neither of these teams are going to be cutting down the nets in March, but I just don't see how you can make the case that the home team isn't the better side here and should be priced as such. Cal State Northridge is outside my top 300 for crying out loud, so expecting them to win on the road seems a bit foolish to me. If they end up closing as a road favorite here, it would mark the 1st time all season for them in that role. A key to this game could be the fact the visitors are terrible from the FT line, shooting at a 63% clip there. They're also below 30% from three-point range on the road while allowing opponents to shoot almost 40%. 10* UC Riverside

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): #11 Auburn is set to begin its SEC schedule w/ a visit to Oxford to face an Ole Miss team that has been a covering machine this season. Obviously, this can be a tricky spot for Bruce Pearl's team seeing as Ole Miss has been the best ATS team in the country so far at 12-1. But it's a spot that I believe the Tigers are set up well to prevail. They're certainly well rested having yet to play a game in 2019. Conversely, Ole Miss had to play over the weekend, opening its SEC slate w/ a 10-pt road win over Vanderbilt. Auburn is one of the top teams in the country though and a great value on Wednesday's NCAAB card. Lay the points. 

I think people forget just how good this Auburn team is. They won the SEC last season. To me, they're a legit Top 10 team w/ an offense that ranks 9th in efficiency. They come in averaging 85.2 PPG on the year w/ four players averaging in double figures, led by senior Bryce Brown's 15.3 PPG. The last time they played was December 29th when they crushed North Florida 95-49 as 23-pt chalk. That's actually the ONLY game the Tigers have played in the L17 days. It ended a five-game ATS slide, but something to keep in mind is they were a DD favorite in the majority of those contests. For a team that was actually favored to win at NC State, this is a great value.

You've got to tip your cap to the job being done by HC Kermit Davis in his 1st year here at Ole Miss, but I can't help but feel the Rebels are a bit overrated coming into this game. They have won eight in a row, but none of the opponents were even close to the caliber of what awaits them tonight. The last time Ole Miss played a ranked team was November 24th and they lost to Cincinnati by double digits. They haven't lost since (8-0 SI/ATS), but I've got to come back to the fact that the Rebels were NOT expected to contend in the SEC this season. This is going to be a challenging week for them, first w/ this game, then a visit to rival Mississippi State over the weekend. Auburn won both meetings LY, including a nine-point win here in Oxford. Tonight will be a "reality check" for Ole Miss. 8* Auburn

8* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I targeted early on (in the season) as a regular fade and quite frankly I should have continued to do so (fade them, that is) more. The Cowboys' record is now 4-11 SU, 3-11 ATS and two of those SU wins were of the two-point variety, one of them against non-DI school Dixie State. Now that I've hopefully established that the Pokes aren't a very good team, I'll let you know that they have little to no chance tonight at San Diego State. The Aztecs are looking to rebound from a bad loss at Boise State over the weekend and will be in an ornery mood. Lay the points. 

San Diego State lost by 24 up in Boise Saturday. It was their second bad loss in the last three games as they also went down in shocking fashion at home (by 19 points) to Brown the previous weekend. In between, they did beat Cal State Northridge, but failed to cover. I made the mistake of laying the points with them there, but off this loss I feel they're in better position to cover. Wyoming's power rating is still propped up by way too lofty preseason expectations that were clearly foolish. Even last year's 20-win team was just awful defensively (78.7 PPG allowed). Losing four of the top five scorers from that team was always going to be too much to overcome. 

San Diego State's is a "buy low" stock right now after two bad losses in the last 10 days. I was shocked to see how poorly the Aztecs played Saturday night in Boise. This is normally a very good defensive team. Luckily, this game is in their gym where they only allow 63.7 PPG on 38.9% shooting. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 16.5 PPG. This is what I call a "get well" game for the favorite as Wyoming is very bad and SDSU is much better than what they've shown recently. 8* San Diego State

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is off quite the impressive win here as they went to Toledo on Saturday and easily ended the Rockets' 10-game win streak, doing so in 79-64 fashion (as 4.5-pt dogs). The Cardinals have now won and covered four in a row since suffering an outright loss to Evansville (a team they'd beaten earlier in the season) back on December 9th. They've won 9 of 10 overall since an early three-game stretch against power conference teams (Alabama, Purdue, Va Tech). They've yet to lose a game here in Muncie, winning by an average of 31.8 PPG! Sounds to me like they should roll against a bad Eastern Michigan squad Tuesday night. Lay the points. 

Do you remember the last time I faded Eastern Michigan? Maybe not as it was all the way back on November 19th. But I certainly do & it's a game Eagles' fans would just as soon forget. They set a NCAA record for offensive futility in a half, scoring just FOUR points before the break (yes, you read that correctly). They ended up losing 63-36 to Rutgers, one of the easiest bets I have ever made in my life. You would think that game would make the nadir of the season in Ypsilanti and perhaps it will be. But things have really gotten no better for EMU as they're now 1-9 ATS this season, including 0-7 as a dog. They have just two SU wins in the L9 games and both were against non-DI teams. The Eagles are 0-5 SU on the road, losing by an average of 24.2 PPG. 

Eastern Michigan's last "effort" was a 16-point home loss at Buffalo on Friday night. Before that, they lost by 24 at Kansas. Earlier in the analysis, I mentioned Ball State's tremendous MOV here in Muncie and that has a lot to do w/ them averaging 98.0 PPG at home. They are 6-2 ATS when favored this year and considering how bad Eastern Michigan has been on the road, this is really not that high of a pointspread. The Cardinals' last four wins have all been by double digits. This is also a team that went to Loyola IL (Final 4 team LY) and won last month. 8* Ball State

8* Missouri State (7:00 ET): For the lone underdog selection in this package, we turn to a Missouri State team that might be a little shorthanded (two reserves out), but is also also being undervalued. Like Eastern Michigan, the Bears are a team that struggles to win on the road. In fact, they have yet to do so in eight previous tries (1-5 ATS). Despite this, we're still looking at a team that has a positive point differential on the year (in all games). They're playing a team Tuesday (Indiana State) that they've had plenty of success against in the past. I'll take the points. 

Indiana State won over the weekend, but only by five over a bad Bradley team. That game was here in Terre Haute. Larry Bird (school's most famous alum) "ain't walking through that door" this year for the Sycamores, who are a respectable 9-5 SU, but most of their losses have come in blowout fashion. Before beating Bradley, they were destroyed by 35 at Loyola Chicago. In that game, Indiana State scored just *12* points in the first half. Things obviously went much better offensively vs. Bradley, but that was tied to the fact they attempted 47 free throws, twice the number as their opponents. It also helped Bradley was a miserable 3 of 20 from 3-pt range.

Missouri State is off a bad 82-66 loss at home to Valparaiso, a game that they were favored to win by 5.5 points. That result undoubtedly had an effect on the pointspread for this one as my numbers say these long-time Missouri Valley rivals would be close to even at a neutral setting. Missouri State played a terrible 1st half vs. Valpo, going into the break down 46-24. That was on the heels of losing a close one at Southern Illinois. I mentioned earlier that the Bears have had Indiana State's number the last couple years. They are 4-0 SU against them the L2 seasons including a 19-pt win here in Terre Haute last February. They'll at least stay within the number here. 8* Missouri State

10* Wisconsin (7:30 ET): There's never a good time to lose your coach (more on that in a moment), but for Penn State today is most inopportune as they'll be facing an angry Wisconsin team that is coming in off B2B losses. Nittany Lions HC Pat Chambers will not be on the bench here as he is suspended for shoving freshman Myles Dread in a heated altercation during the team's 68-55 loss at Michigan Thursday. It has already been a disappointing season in Happy Valley w/ Penn State starting just 7-7 SU overall, including an 0-3 mark in Big 10 play. I'm shocked they are listed in the pick 'em range here. 

Both of Wisconsin's recent losses came as favorites. The more shocking of the two was two Saturdays ago at Western Kentucky. But, for what it's worth, that was a road game and WKU had already beaten one ranked team this year in Bowling Green (West Virginia). The Badgers allowed 67.8% shooting in the second half of the game, which pretty much means you'll lose to anybody. Then, on Thursday, they couldn't buy a bucket in Madison as they lost 59-52 to Minnesota. That game saw them score only 14 pts in the 1st half and they killed themselves at the FT line where they finished the game just 7 of 17.

As they showed vs. Minnesota, the defensive issues that cost Wisconsin against WKU are certainly correctable. This is still a top 20 team nationally in defensive efficiency, mind you. So is Penn State, but their defense is likely to suffer in a game where they're playing w/o their head coach. The Badgers won here LY, holding the Nittany Lions to 35% shooting, including 2 of 14 from three-point range. I would have made them around a three-point favorite here even if Chambers was coaching this game for PSU. But he's not and I look for the Nittany Lions to drop to 0-4 ATS in conference play this season. Penn State has been pretty dreadful on offense this season, shooting below 40% in Big 10 play and just 32.1% for the year from three-point range. 10* Wisconsin

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): FSU is a team I won w/ earlier in the week as they went to San Jose State and blew out the Spartans 73-53 as 14.5-point favorites. As I mentioned in that analysis, the Bulldogs were coming off a very embarrassing loss to Utah Valley State (were 10-pt home favorites) as they shot a dreadful 34% from the field. As expected, they bounced back in a major way against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They wasted little time in gaining an early lead as they shot better than 60% from the floor in the 1st half and took a 22-pt lead into the break. From there, it was smooth sailing. I believe Fresno State is likely to consider its mastery of the Mountain West tonight as they're back at home. Lay the points.

Colorado State might be a little stronger than San Jose State, but they still should not present much of a challenge to FSU. The Rams come into this game having dropped eight of nine, including four straight. Their lone win during that stretch came at the expense of Sam Houston State. The last four losses have been a particularly brutal streak for CSU as three of the defeats have been by five points or less. But even w/ those close calls, I don't expect them to compete here as Fresno State is a much tougher opponent than what the Rams have faced recently. Last year, they came to this building and lost by 21 when priced similarly by the oddsmakers. 

Fresno State is putting together an impressive season at 10-3 SU. The loss to Utah Valley State right before the New Year is the only time they've been beaten at home. Their other two losses were to Miami and TCU, both by single digits. All but one of their wins have come by double digits and at home they're winning by an average of 17.3 PPG. Offensively, they have been very sharp, averaging nearly 80 PPG. Colorado State has been a sieve defensively, giving up almost 80 PPG. This is a second road game in four nights for the Rams and they may very well be spent after taking another close loss at UNLV Wednesday (blew 10-pt second half lead). They are ripe for the "pickin'" here. 8* Fresno State 

10* Over UTSA/UTEP (9:00 ET): In a bit of a weird scheduling quirk, these teams are playing each other in B2B games. As the underdog, I thought UTEP was a solid value Thursday night on the road. I was wrong. The Miners lost 75-60 (even though they'd been bet down all day) on what was an absolutely dreadful shooting night for them (34.0 FG%). Here at home, I'm obviously expecting a much better offensive performance. But what really sticks out to me here is the total. These teams have gone Under against one another the last 10 times they've played! I think that streak comes to an end tonight. Take the Over. 

Not only do these C-USA rivals have a history of going Under against each other, both have primarily been Under teams all season. UTSA has gone Under in 8 of its 10 lined games this year and UTEP isn't far behind at 7-2 Under. In fact, 21 of the Miners' last 30 home games have stayed Under. Since December 1st, UTSA has played in four games where the oddsmakers posted an O/U line. All four stayed Under. UTEP is 4-0 Under its last four games as well. This is highly irregular, obviously. Note that despite the terrible shooting by the Miners Thursday, the game still nearly went Over, only falling short by seven points. 

UTSA hardly shot the ball well two nights ago as they finished the game barely above 40.0% from the field. So they too are likely due for an "uptick" offensively in this quick rematch. They're also due for a downswing defensively. Before allowing just 50, 67 and 60 pts the L3 games (all wins), the Roadrunners were routinely giving up 74+ points. This total is low for them as many of their previous O/U lines this season were north of 150 points. They are averaging almost 75 points per game while giving up nearly 74 PPG. The simple laws of regression (to the mean) tell me that we are in store for an Over in El Paso tonight! 10* Over UTSA/UTEP

8* UTEP (8:00 ET): I don't see any real difference between these foes coming into the C-USA opener, thus I'll be taking what certainly appears to be an inflated number. Both UTEP and UTSA enter this game at a game below .500, though the host Roadrunners have played two more games. UTSA has won three in a row, but all were against clearly inferior opponents (two games not even lined). UTEP has been the better bet at the window this year as they've covered six of their last seven games, including a 76-65 win over Wyoming back on 12.22. They've been off ever since and come into this game w/ legit triple revenge for a trio of losses suffered to UTSA last season. 

Maybe it's the fact that UTEP hasn't won on the road yet that has the oddsmakers "down" on them here. But it's not as if the Miners haven't played a challenging set of road games thus far. They've visited New Mexico State, Arizona, New Mexico and Marquette. They covered the last two times on the road, including losing to Marquette by only seven. It was 12 days ago that the Miners last played, winning the 3rd place game in the Sun Belt Invitational over Wyoming. The only other time in this season they've played w/ this much rest was when they ended up beating Cal Riverside by double digits back on 12.16. The Miners have played only three games in the L30 days, so they should be extremely well-rested coming into tonight's conference opener.

The triple revenge angle is huge here as two of the three losses UTEP suffered to UTSA last year were by four points. Then, on an awful shooting night, they lost to them again in the C-USA Tournament. But I'm just "not seeing it" w/ this UTSA team right now as three of their six wins have come against non-DI opponents and their "best" win was against a Texas A&M-Corpus Christi team that I wouldn't even consider among the top 275 teams in the country. The Roadrunners boast only two double-digit scorers and shoot just 31.8% from three-point range. Though 2-0 ATS as chalk YTD, they are simply not trustworthy in this price range. Take the points. 8* UTEP

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This lines up as a colossal mismatch on the Wednesday card. Fresno State is one of several teams across the country that recently suffered a rather head-scratching loss. Theirs came at home Saturday against Utah Valley State. FSU was a 10-point home favorite, but lost 64-60 as they shot a dreadful 34.0% from the field. That snapped a seven-game win streak and was a "far cry" from what we usually see from this Bulldogs team on the offensive end as they still average over 80 PPG for the year. This is only their second "true" road game of the year, but I had them in the 1st and they covered there (at TCU). Lay the points this time. 

San Jose State is very bad. I count them outside the top 300 teams in the country. Now the Spartans are coming off a difficult three-game road trek where they had to play two Pac 12 teams (Stanford, Cal), then St. Mary's. In the finale, they were blown out by 30 and scored a season-low 45 points. This is a team w/ only three wins this year. One was against Life Pacific (an actual team, not a life insurance company!) and the other two were by a total of seven points against Bethune-Cookman and Northern Arizona, two other very bad teams. Among schools w/ both a D-I football and basketball program, SJSU may have the weakest athletic department in the country. The school's football program is among the worst in the country and so is the basketball team.

San Jose State won just a single game in conference play last season (by two points!), going 1-17 SU against the rest of the Mountain West. They were 4-26 SU overall. They have now lost 35 of their last 41 games. Fresno State beat them twice last season, by nearly identical scores - 77-59 at home and 77-57 on the road. It was a simple case of an "off-shooting night" for FSU against Utah Valley State as their percentages were down across the board. Look for them to bounce back in a major way in this Mt. West Conference opener. 8* Fresno State  

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): What in the world has happened in Cedar Falls? Northern Iowa, a once proud program, has fallen on some really hard times the last couple seasons including a 5-8 SU start this year. The Panthers have been even more dreadful against the pointspread, owning a 1-10 ATS mark this year. That shows the oddsmakers have been a little slow in keeping up w/ the program's overall regression. But here they've overadjusted as UNI is set to face a middling Bradley team that's been pretty overrated all season. The Braves have proven to be a poor bet in the role of favorite, so I'm taking the points here in the Missouri Valley Conference opener for both. 

Over the L6 games, Bradley has lost outright THREE different times as a favorite. Two of those were here at home as both New Mexico (+7.5) and Eastern Illinois (+13) came to Normal and pulled upsets. The Braves have not played since 12/22 when they barely escaped SE Louisiana, winning by only three as 13-point favorites. On a poor shooting night overall (34.0 FG%), Bradley made a three-pointer in the final seconds to notch the SU win. Their last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. I just think it would be a mistake to expect this team to win by any kind of margin, especially against a conference foe following a long layoff. The Braves are just 1-5 ATS in home games this season. 

Northern Iowa's only ATS win this year came back on 11/19 against Old Dominion (favorite to win the Colonial), a 54-53 upset as 2.5-pt dogs. In a weird scheduling spot, the Panthers then had to face the Monarchs again four days later (on the road) and lost by seven, starting the current 7-game ATS slide. Last Saturday, UNI lost at home to Stony Brook as 1.5-pt chalk, 73-63. Stony Brook isn't a bad team mind you (set school record w/ 12 non-conf wins this Year). As ugly as things have gotten for the Panthers at the betting window this year, I have to believe they're being undervalued in this spot. 10* Northern Iowa

10* San Diego State (3:00 ET): The Aztecs are off an absolutely shocking loss to Brown on Saturday. It's not just THAT they lost, it's HOW. They fell 82-61 as 11-pt favorites, getting victimized by a barrage of three-pointers from the Ivy League contingent. The 1st half in particular was as shocking as any box score you'll see all season w/ Brown going into the break w/ a 50-22 advantage. The Bears shot only nine free throws for the game, but went 15 of 28 from three-point range and shot 53.4% overall. That was a far cry from SDSU's shooting as they went just 35.2% overall from the field, including 5 of 17 from behind the arc. I expect a massive bounce back on New Year's Day. Lay the points. 

What made that loss to Brown all the more shocking is that it simply was not in line w/ the Aztecs' season performance at all. Even after the disaster Saturday, visitors are still shooting just 29.2% from three-point range here, for the season. The Aztecs allow just 64.3 PPG at home. Also, as impressive as those defensive numbers are, the Aztecs also rank 53rd in the country in offensive efficiency. They average 82.4 PPG at home. 

Perhaps SDSU could be tested defensively here by a CS Northridge squad that averages almost 80 PPG itself. But there's a reason that the Matadors lost 8 of their first 10 games vs. D-I opponents this season. They can't stop anybody. They are allowing a frightening 84.2 PPG and predictably that number goes up even further when they're on the road as home teams are hitting over 40% against them from three-point range. The Matadors have managed to win three straight (also 3-0 ATS), including a 94-86 home win over Morgan State on Saturday. But they are just 8-20 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. This should be a big bounce back game for the home favorite. 10* San Diego State

8* Pennsylvania (1:00 ET): Penn suffered a bad loss its last time out, 77-45 at Toledo. But that's nothing compared to the kind of SEASON Monmouth is having. The Hawks are on the verge of a winless 2018, having started 0-12. While a few of the losses have been close, generally speaking, the Hawks have been getting blown out with great regularity. This fall from grace has been quite ugly for the team from New Jersey and I'm not sure there's any immediate end in sight, not until MAAC play starts, at least. With Penn at home and antsy to atone for a bad loss, I see them rolling this afternoon. Lay the points.

Monmouth is one of only two teams in the country that is still winless. The other is perennial bottom-feeder Coppin State. To say that it's surprising to find the Hawks this low on the totem pole would be an understatement. They won the MAAC B2B years in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and the upperclassmen have been to the NCAA Tournament before. But after last season's disappointing finish (11-20 SU), the Hawks' best player (Micah Seaborn) decided to declare for the NBA Draft. He wasn't even picked, so it was kind of a lose-lose situation all around. Now there are reports that Monmouth HC King Rice and four reserves are able to beat the starters in scrimmages. The Hawks' confidence is clearly shot right now and I don't see them getting things fixed today. 

The Toledo team that blew out Penn is no slouch. While you never want to lose by 32, the Rockets are 12-1 SU this year. It was also a road game for Penn where they were underdogs. As a favorite, the team is a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 5-0 SU at home. Remember, the Quakers upset defending National Champ Villanova earlier this month (I was on 'em!). They also won at New Mexico and upset Miami FL. This despite losing all-conference player Ryan Betley early in the season. This is a good team and with the blowout loss still fresh in its collective mind (happened Saturday), I fully anticipate the Quakers to roll here. They've been undervalued most of the year. A real key here is that Penn is 31st in the country in effective field goal percentage (they shoot 55.6% from the field at home!) and Monmouth is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now at 329th in effective FG% allowed. 8* Pennsylvania 

8* Towson State (4:00 ET): Both of these teams opened Colonial play w/ a win on Friday. Towson went to Elon and beat the Phoenix 77-60 as a one-point favorite. William & Mary was here at home hosting James Madison and won by only five, 79-74, as seven-point chalk. I realize that Towson isn't exactly being picked to finish at the top of the CAA standings this year, but I also believe they are deserving of a bit more respect than they are getting here against a middling William & Mary team. The Tigers beat the Tribe both times in the regular season LY before getting ousted by them in the conference tournament. Take the points. 

Towson actually did trail Elon by nine early in the second half before storming back and winning comfortably. Over an 11-minute stretch, they outscored the Phoenix 34-8. It was a 53-point second half, led by an 8 for 12 performance from three-point range. Will they shoot that well again? The inclination is to say "no," but William & Mary is also giving up 80 PPG on the season, so the Tigers should score plenty this afternoon. Each of Towson's last four losses have been by six points or less, so they've been competitive. Last year, they came here to Williamsburg and blew out W&M 99-73 (as three-point dogs). In fact, the Tigers hung 90+ on W&M in both regular season matchups LY.

It was also not easy for William & Mary their last time out as they erased a double digit deficit in a come from behind effort against James Madison. It was the third third this season that the Tribe won a game in which they trailed by double digits. That hardly sounds like a sustainable blueprint to me. Had they not erased a 20-point deficit against St. Joe's back on 11.24 (won 87-85), then the Tribe would have been 1-8 SU to start the season. They've won three of their last four, but have yet to beat a D-I opponent this year by more than 10 points. Three of their five wins have come by five points or less. 8* Towson State

10* Appalachian State (3:00 ET): The Mountaineers come into St. Louis as pretty heavy underdogs, but I'm not exactly sure why that is. They've been more than competitive in their losses so far this year, save for a neutral court game against a good Purdue team. Other than that, ASU hasn't been beaten by more than 10 pts in any game this season! They've been off for 10 days since a confidence-building win over Milligan, a non-board team they destroyed by a score of 99-60. They're facing an opponent this afternoon that doesn't score much, so points are at premium. That makes taking the points sound like the right move to me. 

St. Louis is a really good defensive team (22nd in the country in efficiency), but that's about all the Billikens have going for them. They were humiliated their last time out, losing 81-59 at Florida State. That marked a season-high in points allowed They do own a two-point win at Seton Hall earlier in the year, but have dropped every road game since and are just 4-4 SU overall. This isn't a team I'd want to lay double digits with, given they average only 66.7 PPG on the season. Only once in the last six games have they topped that average. Sure enough, the Billikens are just 1-6 ATS as favorites this season, including 0-4 when laying 12 or more points here at home. 

These teams play at very different tempos. App State comes in averaging 85.4 PPG (13th in the country). While they also give up their fair share, the Mountaineers definitely will be looking to push the pace here in St. Louis. That could very well make the favored Billikens quite uncomfortable, especially coming after a week-long layoff. The Billikens are just 2-9 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days rest. Though 0-7 SU on the road this season, App State is a respectable 3-4 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 7-0 SU at home, but 2-5 ATS. Two of SLU's top three scorers have been struggling from the field recently while App State leading scorer Shabazz has twice gone for 29 pts in the L3 games. 10* Appalachian State

10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): There are only five remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, and of those five, I don't think there's any disputing that St. John's is the weakest team. Really, there's a pretty huge gap that exists between three of the unbeatens (Virginia, Michigan, Nevada) and the other two (Houston, St. John's). Tonight, the Red Storm are underdogs for the very first time this season as it will be just their second "true" road game. They face a Seton Hall team that has had their number in this Big East opener and I look for St. John's to fall for the very 1st time. Lay the points. 

Seton Hall is no slouch either and this isn't simply a case of being the right team at the right time. The Pirates hold a win over Kentucky this year and will come into tonight riding a five-game win streak. Three of those wins, including the one over UK (84-83), were close (as in decided by six points or less). But the Pirates have also lost a couple tight ones as well. As I stated above, they've certainly had St. John's number in this Big East rivalry, including a season sweep last year. At home, they've won and covered 12 of their previous 14 meetings with the Red Storm. This is a team that just beat Maryland on the road its last time out. 

St. John's being undefeated is simply a byproduct of the schedule as they have played one of the weakest slates of games in the entire country to this point. KenPom has their schedule rated 344th out of 353 teams in the country. That's why they're unbeaten and not even ranked at this point. Four of the team's first six wins came by four points or less and then the schedule got real soft. They should also be concerned about the fact they just allowed Sacred Hart to shoot 50% in the last game. They were able to overcome that by sinking a school record 17 three-pointers, but fate catches up with them here and Seton Hall will hand them their 1st loss. 10* Seton Hall 

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): Looking at the respective seasons of the teams involved here, you might be surprised to see one team as a clear favorite. But the bottom line is Wright State is better than its 6-7 SU record as five of those seven losses have been by 7 pts or fewer. They remain the favorite to win the Horizon League this year. Now that conference play is set to begin, I expect the Raiders to start winning and winning big. The team is 6-1 SU at home (0-6 SU on the road) and here will be facing a UIC team that they've beaten five straight times. Lay the points.

Now Wright State may have a small problem on its hands, that being the health (ankle) of Loudon Love, the team's starting center and All-Conference player. But w/o Love, the Raiders were still able to hang tough against #17 Mississippi State last Saturday, only losing 67-63 as 13.5-point underdogs. Starting in place of Love, Parker Ernsthausen had a solid game w/ 11 points, making 3 of 4 three-pointers. Ernsthausen is the team's best three-point shooter at 46.4% from behind the arc. If the Raiders are able to hang w/ a team as good as Miss State w/o Love, then they should have no problem beating UIC if he's unable to go Friday night. 

Wright State isn't the only Horizon League team that can't win on the road. UIC is 0-6 SU away from home this year, giving up a whopping 87.3 points per game. As a result, they've been beaten by an average of more than 12.3 PPG. Now let's look at how Wright State performs at home. They allow just 63.1 PPG here at the Nutter Center and have outscored opponents by 16.6 PPG. UIC's four wins this year over board teams have all been by six points or fewer, so their record could be a lot worse. Given how well Wright State defends at home and how poorly UIC plays on that end on the road, this should end in a blowout. 10* Wright State 

8* Virginia (2:00 ET): Two more teams (Buffalo, Furman) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last night, leaving just six left in the country. Counted among them is #5 Virginia, a team that has won 41 of its last 44 games overall. While it it going to take a LONG time to wash away the stench of that historic loss in LY's NCAA Tournament (first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16), the bottom line is that Tony Bennett's Cavaliers remain one of the premier teams in the country. William & Mary won't be any match for them this afternoon in Charlottesville. Lay the points.

So far, the Hoos are 10-0 and outscoring teams by 21.1 PPG. That average margin of victory is basically what we're looking for here and we should get it (and then some) due to the combination of Virginia's own defense and W&M's lack of it. The Hoos are #1 in the country in scoring defense (as per usual), giving up just 51.3 points per game. They're even stingier here at home where they are allowing only 46.6 PPG! The only team to crack 60 against them so far was Maryland and that was a "true" road game. Four of their five visitors have not scored 50.

William & Mary can score. They come in averaging 77.3 PPG. But that's also skewed due to games against lesser competition, like their last one against William Peace College where they scored 106. Note that the Tribe has faced one top 20 defense in efficiency this year (Old Dominion) and was held to 53 points on the road. This is very likely to be worse. Then you have the fact that William & Mary comes in allowing 81.3 PPG. So in addition to their usual brand of defense, UVA should score plenty Saturday afternoon, giving this the potential to be one of the bigger blowouts on today's card. 8* Virginia

8* Drexel (1:00 ET): This battle of Philly schools may not be as lopsided as it appears. Temple, while 9-2 SU, has won a LOT of close games so far. Already, they have four wins by four points or less. Only three of their nine wins have come by a margin greater than eight points. While it's nice to have such wins "in the bag," it's also not sustainable and doesn't make for being a great favorite. Sure enough, the Owls are 1-6 ATS as chalk this season. Coming off B2B two-point victories (over UMass and Davidson), I see Temple as being ripe for an upset. Take the points here. 

Admittedly, Drexel has a couple bad losses this year (NJ Tech, MD-Baltimore County). They were also just blown out by 32 at UConn earlier in the week. But getting this game at home is going to be a big motivating factor for the Dragons, who also come in w/ revenge for a three-point loss to Temple last year. They easily covered the 16-point spot there as neither team shot the ball well. One thing that makes this Drexel team attractive as an underdog in they can score. They average more than 80 PPG on the season while shooting 39.2% from three-point range. That'll go a long way in keeping this one close. 

Now they did shoot only 3 of 16 from behind the arc against UConn. But remember that was on the road. The Dragons had scored at least 76 points in each of their four games previous to the loss to UConn. Unlike the Huskies, Temple really does not have the kind of elite offense that can blow teams out w/ regularity. The Owls needed OT to get by Davidson last Saturday, scoring the GW basket on a lucky turnover. That came on the heels of rallying back from being down 10 at the half to UMass. Really, the Owls should feel fortunate to have that 9-2 SU record as three of their last four wins have come by exactly two points. The underdog will keep this closer than expected. 8* Drexel

10* Marquette (8:30 ET): I admit Buffalo got me earlier in the week (winning at Syracuse), but this is a pretty brutal spot for the still-undefeated Bulls, who are playing as a short road underdog for a second straight time. With Texas Tech losing last night (to Duke), only eight teams remain unbeaten in College Basketball. Sooner than later, all will fall at least once and for Buffalo, tonight is that time. Marquette is a stronger team than Syracuse, despite the oddsmakers suggesting otherwise, and they're a perfect 8-0 SU here at home. Lay the short number here as Buffalo takes its first loss of the year. 

Buffalo is a nice story, but I'll continue to maintain that they are nowhere even close to being a top 15 team in the country, which is where the pollsters have them. Now, this is an experienced group that did win a NCAA Tournament game (upset Arizona) last March. Nate Oats' team is expected to repeat as MAC Champions, but the Bulls have clearly surpassed expectations so far w/ a 7-1 ATS mark. I concede that they do own impressive road wins over West Virginia and Syracuse. But this four-game road trip that they're on (takes them through the New Year) figures to provide them their first loss as this is pretty clearly the most challenging spot of the three remaining games.

Marquette has won six straight, a streak which includes wins over Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin. They too are in the Top 25 (currently 20th) following a 26-point over North Dakota their last time out, a blowout win which came in spite of 22 turnovers. The Golden Eagles only losses this year came at Indiana and to Kansas at a neutral setting. Their eight home wins have come by an average of 18.5 PPG (opponents shooting just 36.0%). Eventually, Buffalo has to lose and this figures to be the last time they are an underdog for awhile. 10* Marquette

8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Charleston comes into this game pretty red hot, as winners of seven straight. They are 10-2 SU overall, but I don't see them being worthy of this price range against this opponent tonight. Coastal Carolina might only be 6-5 SU, but they've taken only one DD loss on the year and it was by 11 to a Wofford team that is substantially better than Charleston. Other than that, the Chanticleers' other four losses have all been by six points or less. I look for them to take the favored Cougars down to the wire in this one, which should be tight from start to finish. 

This is also a revenge game for Coastal Carolina as they lost by two to Charleston at home last year. It was a dreadful shooting night for the Chanticleers last year, particularly from three-point range where they went 1 for 16. This year's edition is a pretty strong shooting team (46.7% overall) and especially from behind the three-point arc where they are nearly 39% for the season. So Charleston won't be able to count on the same poor shooting tonight. Coastal Carolina is off a nice 69-65 win over NC Central on Sunday (led by as many as 14) and has played plenty of "true" road games so far. In other words, they'll be ready for this one. 

College of Charleston is nowhere near the three-point shooting team that Coastal Carolina is, so that's a big edge for the underdog right there. In fact, Charleston is shooting below 30% from behind the arc at home this year. Coming off B2B road wins, one of them an upset of Virginia Commowealth, I think this sets up as a letdown game for the favorite tonight. The Cougars are coming off a commanding 83-58 win over Siena their last time out (where they shot 61.5% overall!), a performance they won't soon be repeating. Overall, the Cougars' recent shooting simply is not sustainable. Coastal Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog so far this year while Charleston is just 1-3 ATS at home. 8* Coastal Carolina

8* Ark-Little Rock (8:00 ET): Memphis is no longer the power that it once was under John Calipari. Really, it was a pretty fast decline under Coach Cal's understudy Josh Pastner, who would bolt for Georgia Tech. Tubby Smith replaced him an did a terrible job for two years. Famous alum Penny Hardaway is now in his first season at the helm and the Tigers are 5-5 SU, coming off an emotional loss to in-state rival Tennessee where they scored 92 points at home and still didn't even cover the spread. I believe they are "ripe for the picking" tonight and laying far too many points. 

Little Rock had a far easier time in its last games as they played Miles College and won easily, 67-47. That kind of opponent was a welcome sight for the Trojans, who had just experienced two back-breaking losses in a row. They blew a halftime lead at home to Bradley at home, then lost on a half-court heave to Central Arkansas, also at home. (That was actually their 2nd loss to Central Arkansas in two weeks). While the road has generally been unkind to Little Rock, they did cover here in Memphis last year in a similar price range, losing by only eight points. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings w/ the Tigers. 

Memphis is not good defensively and their struggles extend way beyond giving up 102 pts to Tennessee on Saturday. They're allowing over 80 PPG on the season. The only two teams not to score at least 76 against them were Tennessee Tech and Canisius. Obviously when you are giving up that many points, it's pretty difficult to cover as double digit favorites. Speaking of that, the Tigers have not been DD favorites since the season opener, when they played Tennessee Tech, and they failed to cover in that spot. While Memphis played Saturday, Little Rock has been off for eight days, giving them a bit of an edge there. The Tigers' tempo, which often leads to them not getting the best shot offensively, will be their undoing here. 8* Ark Little Rock

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): This is a total letdown spot for Old Dominion, who comes in off an upset of Syracuse at the Carrier Dome this past weekend. The Monarchs were able to rally from a double digit deficit to win by six, outscoring the Orange by 16 in the 2H. ODU is definitely a hot team right now as they've won six straight (5-1 ATS) and they can certainly play some defense (top 20 in defensive efficiency). But I'm not sure I see them going on the road for a second time in five days and coming away w/ a "W." It's their first time playing B2B road games this year and they're favored in this one. Take the points. 

While it will be difficult for ODU to match its intensity from the last game, Richmond is likely be very motivated tonight, playing at home. First off, they are in off an embarrassing loss from over the weekend as they fell 59-52 here at home to Oral Roberts as 11-pt favorites. In the loss, the Spiders shot below 30% from the field. This after shooting 50% or better in three consecutive games. Adding to the Spiders' motivation here is the fact they have legit revenge from a 19-point loss to ODU last year down in Norfolk. They didn't shoot the ball particularly well there either. It should be a different story tonight. 

It was a season-low in pts scored (52) for Richmond on Saturday. This is a team that averages 72.2 PPG on 47.8% shooting. This does figure to be a pretty low-scoring game, but that favors the underdog. Old Dominion is just 1-6 ATS its last seven time as a road fave of 6.5 to 9 points. They are shooting just 41% for the year and are below 40% away from home while averaging just 61.2 PPG. Meanwhile, Richmond is 6-1 ATS as a home dog in that 6.5 to 9 point range. This is just a bad spot for ODU, especially to be laying points. 10* Richmond 

8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): Entering Tuesday, there are still nine unbeatens left in College Basketball. Eight of them are ranked (St. John's being the exception), but only five truly deserve to be. Those five would be: Virginia, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada & Texas Tech, all of whom I believe are top 10 teams in the country. Another unbeaten is Furman, who did beat Villanova, but should still be considered well below all the other remaining unbeatens. That leaves us two more to hit on, Houston and Buffalo, both of whom are in the Top 25, but don't deserve to be. We've got a chance to play against Buffalo here, on the road against a "name" program, at an extraordinary price. I'm laying the points here. 

Syracuse dropped from the Top 25 due to a loss to another strong mid-major (Old Dominion) on Saturday. The Orange were nine-point favorites and lost to the Monarchs 68-62 as they shot a woeful 33.3% from the floor. Losing to ODU here at the Carrier Dome is clearly "something that shouldn't happen," but it did and not to make excuses, but there is an important caveat. Like Syracuse, ODU ranks pretty high nationally in defensive efficiency. In fact, the Monarchs are top 20 in that category. Syracuse, who is #16 in the country in defensive efficiency itself, won't have to worry about that same kind of suffocating opponent here as Buffalo ranks 54th in def efficiency. Among the unbeatens, only St. John's and Furman are lower. 

Buffalo is a tremendous story at 10-0 and ranked #14 in the country. But there is simply no way that Nate Oats' team is one of the 15 best in the country. Their "best" wins came at West Virginia and on a neutral court vs. San Francisco. Both were narrow victories (by 5 pts or less) and neither opponent is as good as Syracuse. Note Syracuse led ODU by double digits on Saturday before a poor second half. Also note that Buffalo really struggled against a zone defense vs. Southern Illinois Saturday. The SIU zone caused Buffalo to lose a 19-pt lead. We know what kind of defense Syracuse plays (Hint: it's a 2-3 zone) and they've beaten Buffalo 18 straight times dating back to 1963. 8* Syracuse 

10* St. Mary's (11:00 PM ET): In addition to the wrong team being favored here, this is a horrendous spot for LSU to fly out to Vegas and play a red hot team. You may recall that earlier in the week I was on the Tigers as they went to Houston. They were underdogs against an unbeaten team and I took the points, giving them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. For most of the game, they looked to be the better team, building a lead as high as 15 early in the 2nd half. They still had a double digit lead w/ just under 15 mins to go. But that's when the wheels fell off and they ended up losing by six (covered by 1/2 pt). I don't like LSU at all in this quick turnaround.

Especially when they're laying points to such a hot team. St. Mary's has won and covered four straight and should be the betting favorite here. All four wins have been by double digits, though against competition far weaker than what they'll see here. It's been a nice turnaround for the Gaels after losing four in a row, which I think is still weighing on the oddsmakers' minds here. Tuesday vs. CS-Fullerton, they led by 19 at halftime and never looked back. Jordan Ford scored all 19 of his pts in the 1st half and three other starters would join him in double figures.

The Gaels shoot the ball very well (49.7 FG%) and that's going to mean trouble for a LSU side that really doesn't, especially away from Baton Rouge. The Tigers have won just 1 of 4 away from campus so far, including an outright loss as favorite to Oklahoma State last month. Three-point shooting, as if often is, may prove key in this contest. St. Mary's is shooting 39.1% from behind the arc so far this season. They are allowing just 29.6% shooting. With the way LSU struggles to shoot away from home, I wouldn't be too confident in them being able to "keep up" in this late night showdown. 10* St. Mary's

8* NC State (2:00 ET): Every week, when the new NCAAB rankings come out, I like to compare them to my own personal top 25. There's not as much discrepancy as you might think, but there's a always at least a couple teams not ranked by the pollsters that I think deserve to be. One such team is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have started 8-1 this year, the only loss coming at Wisconsin (by just 4 pts) in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Other than that, the competition hasn't exactly been fierce, but it's worth noting that NC State is outscoring teams by 26.9 PPG this year!

This is a neutral site game w/ Penn State, another Big 10 team. The Wolfpack are obviously hoping for a better result than what they got in Madison. They should. Last year in Raleigh, they beat the Nittany Lions 85-78 as a three-point home dog. Both teams are better this season. Penn State is actually top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency right now (per KenPom), but really struggles shooting the ball sometimes. Not in the last game, mind you, when Rasir Bolton's career-high 27 pts led a 76-65 win over Colgate. The team shot 10 of 27 from three-point range as well. But the issue is that the Nittany Lions have shot just 40.7% from the field outside of Happy Valley this year, including a dreadful 29.5% from three-point range.

NC State is 6th in the country in scoring and 14th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they're not too shabby either, ranking 21st in points allowed. Again, I recognize they haven't taken on the toughest non-conference schedule, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a very good basketball team. They've scored 180 pts the L2 games and are 7-2 ATS overall. The only two times they failed to cover were as big favorites. The Wolfpack shoot the ball very well; better than 50% overall and better than 40% from three-point range. That's too much for Penn State to keep up with, so lay the short number. 8* NC State

10* Green Bay (9:00 ET): WI-Green Bay has been a covering machine this year. An underdog in all but one lined game, the Phoenix are 6-2 ATS on the year, 6-1 when in the underdog role. They've stepped up in class a couple times, playing the likes of Iowa and Oregon on the road, so they certainly shouldn't be intimidated by tonight's visit to Creighton. Outside of an ugly loss at Bowling Green last week, there's nothing to indicate the Phoenix can't hang w/ the heavily favored Blue Jays here. They average 87.2 PPG (13th in the country), so take the double digit spread.

Creighton also isn't shy about scoring as they are averaging 83.6 PPG. But they do come in off B2B losses. Now those losses came against Gonzaga and Nebraska, two very good teams, one of them top five in the country. But w/ another more "high-profile" game (at Oklahoma) looming next week, I think it will be easy for the Blue Jays to overlook tonight's game, which is obviously dangerous when laying double digits. Creighton has not covered either time it was a DD favorite this year, winning those games by only 11 and 6 points and they were playing Western Illinois and East Tennessee State. 

Green Bay plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country (9th in possessions per game) and have scored 100+ pts in two of their last three games. Yes, one of those games was against a non-DI school, but the other came on the road against Belmont, a game where they were 7-pt underdogs. As for the oddsmakers, they are giving Creighton basically the same level of respect they gave Iowa and Oregon against the Phoenix. I don't think that's right. Creighton is highly suspect defensively as it ranks 301st in points allowed & is 128th in efficiency. They were just shredded by Nebraska for 94 pts after giving up 103 to Gonzaga. Giving up a lot of points here will obviously make it difficult to cover such a large spread. 10* Green Bay

8* LSU (9:00 ET): Nine teams are still unbeaten in College Basketball and you can predictably find most of them in the latest Top 25 poll. Even a schools as small as Furman finds itself at #23 in the AP due to the "0" in the loss column. But, make no mistake about it, not all of these unbeatens SHOULD be in the Top 25. Take Houston, for example. The Cougars are 8-0 SU, but I don't believe they're one of the 25 best teams in the country. LSU has been a real "problem opponent" for them the L2 years and I would not be surprised to see the Tigers end UH's unbeaten run for a second time in the last three seasons. Take the points.

Each of the last two years have seen Houston go down to Baton Rouge and suffer an outright loss to LSU as favorites. Two years ago, the Cougars were 5-0 SU and laying 4.5 points. They lost 84-65. Last season, they were 8-2 SU and 2.5-pt favorites as they paid a visit. They lost 80-77. This time, they're hoping the "third time is the charm" at home. Houston does have a few nice wins this year. They beat Oregon here at home, plus they went to BYU and Oklahoma State and prevailed. That OK State win came over the weekend as they held the Pokes to 35.1% shooting in a 63-53 win. They shot 12 of 34 from three-point range themselves. 

LSU is playing its first "true" road game here. They lost - by 13 - to Oklahoma State on a neutral floor. So between that, UH being at home and still unbeaten, it's easy to see why LSU is the underdog here. But the Bayou Bengals have four players averaging double figures and leading rebounder Emmitt Williams is expected back tonight after he missed the 91-50 beatdown of Incarnate Word on Sunday. This team is averaging an impressive 82.1 PPG on 49.7% shooting. So they're very attractive in the underdog role, which they're in for only the second time this year. They covered the first - as 3.5-pt dogs - vs. Florida State. 8* LSU

8* Portland State (9:00 ET): Portland State just got done beating Portland Bible College (really!) and Portland U. I suppose they ran out of teams within the city limits to beat so they'll venture to Provo Wednesday to meet a BYU team that has been taking care of business in its own state. The Cougars hold wins over both Utah State and Utah in the last week, a nice recovery from a three-game slide. It was a really nice win Saturday over the rival Utes, but I look at this matchup as a letdown spot for BYU. It certainly isn't a great situation to be laying this many points.

I'll admit that Portland State's numbers are a bit skewed due to three huge wins over non-board teams. They beat Portland Bible College 123-40, outscoring them 65-18 in the 1st half. Last Thursday's game vs. Portland was obviously a much bigger test and it was one that the Vikings passed w/ "flying colors." They led the Pilots by as many as 19 in the 2H and improved to 4-0 SU at home. This will be just their second "true" road game of the season, the first being a 12-point loss at Stanford. The Vikings have covered 15 of their last 20 non-conference games.

Two of BYU's four losses have come against teams that are still unbeaten, Nevada & Houston. But they've also lost to Illinois State and Weber State, games in which they were favored to win. They gave up 92 and 113 points respectively in those two losses. One did go to overtime, but it's not the one you think as the Cougars really did give up 113 pts in regulation to Weber State. They lost despite shooting 59.4% from the floor as they gave up 66 2nd half points. That's not necessarily indicative of how BYU plays defense; they just held Utah to 59 pts, for example. But I look for them to give up enough tonight that it costs them the cover. 8* Portland State 

10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Columbia got off to a terrible start to the year, losing six of its first seven games. But the Lions have kept a busy schedule here in December and won their last two games, the most recent one being a minor upset of Iona at MSG on Sunday. Now they're set to play a string of road games that will take them through the New Year. Up first is a venture to Chesnut Hill to face Boston College. B.C. has certainly had a tumultuous last week or so. It began w/ an overtime loss, 100-95, to Providence last Tuesday. Then, last weekend's game vs. Texas A&M was cancelled due to mechanical issues w/ the Eagles' plane. Now they have to lay a big number. It's not a good spot and I'll be taking the points in this matchup.

While B.C. is 6-2 SU, they've hardly taken on a challenging schedule. In fact, they've yet to even play a "true" road game. Their "best" win came in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge over Minnesota. However, they've hardly been blowing teams out. Since opening the season w/ a 20-pt win over Milwaukee, they've yet to win another game by more than 15 pts. That's key considering the number here. And an outright loss wouldn't be unprecedented considering the Eagles did lose to IUPUI as 16-pt chalk last month. Against Providence, they didn't shoot the ball well, but the bigger problem was giving up 87 pts in regulation. Leading scorer Ky Bowman has been in a slump, shooting less than 37% from the floor in three straight games. 

Columbia was able to defeat Iona despite not having its leading scorer Mike Smith. It appears as if he will suit up on Wednesday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Lions as they lost here LY, 81-66. That was despite attempting only TWO free throws the entire game! Something else to consider here is that Columbia's record could easily be a whole lot better. They have suffered three losses by a total of 4 pts (all by 2 pts or less). They have yet to lose any game by more than 11 points. So just like B.C. really hasn't been blown out, Columbia really hasn't been blown out. 10* Columbia

8* Pennsylvania (7:00 ET): Two of Philly's Big 5 meet up Tuesday night at The Palestra. Both Villanova and Penn are 8-2. Villanova is the defending National Champions, yet this season got off to a bit of a dicey start. They were 2-2 after suffering B2B embarrassing losses to Michigan and Furman (both at home). Losing to Michigan isn't that embarrassing, but losing by 27 certainly was. The Wildcats were 16-pt favorites agianst Furman. However, six wins later (the last three all coming against the other Philly area rivals) and Nova is back in the top 25. They deserve to be, but this won't be an easy game against Penn. I'm taking the points. 

Villanova is obviously Philly's finest, but a case can be made that Penn is #2. The Quakers have won four in a row, including an 89-75 victory in this gym over Miami FL. So they certainly won't be intimidated. They too are off a win over a city rival, in their case a bad LaSalle team, whom they defeated 83-65 as 5.5-pt chalk. Note Nova was a 17-pt fave @ LaSalle, yet only won by seven. That was their only other "true" road game as well. Subsequent wins over Temple and St. Joe's (at home) have made it 25 straight Big 5 victories. This team is now 29-14 ATS its last 43 games overall. But I stand by my earlier assertion that this will not be an easy game for the favored Wildcats. 

Early in the year, Penn lost Ryan Betley, a 3-pt specialist and all-Ivy League Player. But the team hasn't missed a beat. Freshman Michael Wang has picked up the slack, shooting a ridiculous 57.4% from the field. Penn is a very good shooting team overall, making nearly 50% of its shots, including almost 40% from three-point range. That will go a long way when taking points. The Quakers are 4-0 at home, averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on 56.3% shooting. Obviously, they won't approach those numbers tonight, but they should still score enough to cover. Villanova did not shoot well in its last game (37.5%). 8* Pennsylvania 

10* Washington State (7:00 ET): This should be an extremely easy game for Wazzu at home. Both of the Cougars losses this year have been on the road. Here in Pullman, they're already 5-0 SU and averaging 89.2 PPG. They've covered the spread in all five games as well. Now the competition hasn't exactly been the stingiest, but it's not like we should expect much here from a bad Montana State side that has won only two games so far. The Bobcats have had to play most of their games on the road so far and are 0-5 SU outside of Bozeman, losing by an average of almost 23 PPG. I'll lay the points here. 

In its last game, Washington State won by 20 over Idaho. They were laying a similar number to what they are here and scored 90 points. They've now scored at least 80 in every home game. That kind of offensive prowess is going to put a lot of pressure on Montana State here as the Bobcats have topped 70 in only one road game so far (at Colorado State) and were held to just 35 by Indiana. A big key here (as it usually is) will be shooting from behind the arc. Wazzu is taking nearly 30 three-point shots per game, which is top 10 in the country. That high volume is going to be problematic for their opponent tonight, who often struggles to defend the 3-pt line.

Montana State has not played in 11 days, so don't be surprised if they come out rusty. Furthermore, they're off a rare win as well. They beat North Dakota in a close game, one that saw them rally back from a halftime deficit. The 81-76 win marked MSU's second fewest points allowed in a game this season, which is kind of frightening. The only opponent to score less against them was Presentation College, a NAIA school who went for 68. The Bobcats are allowing 84.1 PPG, which is bottom 15 in the country right now. I don't think the long layoff is going to be a benefit, rather it's more likely to be a hindrance. Washington State has covered 10 of its last 11 games against teams allowing 77 or more points per game. 10* Washington State

8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Both teams are off a loss here. San Diego State's was more shocking as they fell as six-point favorites to San Diego. Cal's loss also occurred at home, but they were seven-point dogs to a good San Francisco team. I don't know if the Bears are thinking about switching conferences (only kidding!), but they've actually taken on three straight West Coast Conference teams. While they did beat a bad Santa Clara squad, the Bears not only lost to USF, but at St. Mary's as well. Of course, the team SDSU just lost to also hails from the WCC. While it may seem like a relatively even matchup Sat night, I still believe the Aztecs have a significant edge and thus I'll lay the short number. 

These schools have met each of the last two seasons, right around this time of year. It was a neutral site game that San Diego State won back in 2016, 77-65 as 6.5-pt underdogs. Last year, Cal won on the road, 63-62 as 16.5-pt dogs. So it's a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Lucky for them, Cal has won just two of its eight games this season w/ five of those losses coming by double digits. It's a real bad scene in Berkeley right now as both wins came against teams outside my top 200. This team does not defend well as they've given up at least 76 points in all six losses. 

I mentioned earlier that SDSU suffered an outright loss in their last game, to San Diego. Looking at the second half of that game, it's pretty stunning how the Aztecs fell apart. They led by seven at halftime, but were outscored 47-28 in the second half. That kind of defensive collapse just doesn't happen w/ this team very often as opponents are shooting less than 40% against the Aztecs for the season. Fortunately, SDSU is not only 26-9-4 ATS off an ATS loss, but also 5-1 ATS off their previous six SU losses. This year has already seen them respond from a couple blowout losses (to Duke and Iowa State) w/ nice wins and covers over Xavier and Jackson State. Make no mistake about it, the Aztecs are the significantly better team here. 8* San Diego State

10* Loyola Chi (4:00 ET): With all due respect to Sister Jean, we all knew Loyola Chicago would take a step back this year. I mean, how could they not after that incredible Final Four run last March? The Ramblers went an amazing 32-6 SU last season en route to San Antonio, but knew they wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone this year and have already dropped four games. One of them, I was against them in what was a huge revenge game for their opponent (Nevada). The Ramblers now come into this game as losers of three of their last four, having lost outright as a 5-pt home favorite to Ball State on Wednesday. 

Maryland is one of EIGHT Big 10 teams currently ranked in the top 25. That conference is absolutely loaded this year as there's a 9th team - Indiana - probably worthy of Top 25 consideration as well. While I just said that Loyola Chi "wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone" this year, don't be surprised if the Terps aren't taking them as seriously as they should. Maryland is coming off a series of high-profile games, all of them going down to the wire, and may not have as much "left in the tank" as they'd like. They just lost at Purdue on Thursday by two. It was their second loss in three games as they fell by five to Virginia as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. This is a young team. Seven of the top eight players in the rotation are either freshman or sophomores. 

Note this is technically a neutral site game, taking place in Baltimore. I think that's a big break for Loyola not having to go into College Park. As for those eight ranked Big 10 teams, I happen to think Maryland is the weakest of the lot and probably shouldn't even be ranked. Missing eight of its final nine shots, the Terps shot less than 30% in the second half vs. Purdue and that loss will be hard to shake. Meanwhile, Loyola is an underdog for only the 2nd time this year (first was vs. Nevada) and should be motivated back in a more comfortable role. Ball State shot 57% against them, which isn't happening again here. The Ramblers are 15-7 ATS when taking points the L3 seasons. They are also 4-2 SU L6 vs. the Top 25 and 10-2 SU L12 on a neutral court. Take the points. 10* Loyola Chi

10* Under New Mexico/St. Mary's (7:00 ET): This game is being played at Staples Center as part of the Air Force Reserve Hall of Fame Classic. It is the first of three games tonight in LA w/ the "main event" being a battle of unbeatens between Nevada & Arizona State. To me, it's the matchup where there's the most value and that value exists with the total. New Mexico has gone Over in all six games this year. St. Mary's has gone Over in every game in which it has been favored (7x total) and they are laying points here. But I see these streaks coming to an end Friday as this O/U line is simply too high. I'm on the Under. 

New Mexico just gave up 100 pts in its last game, a 35-point loss to in-state rival New Mexico State. That certainly has played a major role in why this O/U line is so high. In addition to playing horrendous defense, the Lobos shot just 28.1% from the floor. Now they should obviously shoot better tonight at Staples, but at the same time, they're not going to give up nearly as many as points. For as many as they gave up Tuesday, there were still "only" 165 total pts scored in the game. That was also their second time facing NMSU already, the first being a 98-94 shootout (lost) in Albuquerque. Tonight will be the toughest opponent they have had to face all year, at least defensively speaking. 

St. Mary's had no problems making shots in their last game as they sank 59% of their field goal attempts in a 93-61 blowout of Bethune-Cookman. It was their third straight game shooting 50% or better and second in a row hovering around 60%. That's really impressive, but also not sustainable. Also, all three of those games were played at home. I referenced the Gaels' defense earlier and they are holding opponents to just 30.4% shooting from three-point range. That's key here as this is the highest total for any SMU game so far this season. In it's two neutral site games thus far, St. Mary's has shot just 33% and averaged 60 pts. Playing in a larger "gym" than usual, look for both side to struggle shooting the basketball and the Over streaks to come to an end. 10* Under New Mexico/St. Mary's

10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): UC Riverside isn't having the best start to the season (just 2-7 SU). But here's the thing: that was to be expected. They haven't been favored in a single game and they've played just twice at home. Once was a win against non-DI team UC Merced. The other was a 10-pt loss to Cal Baptist. The Highlanders' only other win was an upset (as 5.5-pt dogs) of Elon in a Holiday Tournament. They're finally back home Thursday, hosting a Pepperdine team that is laying WAY too many points considering they aren't very good either. Take the points in this one.

The Waves of Pepperdine do own a mark of 5-1 ATS. They're also 5-3 straight up. But they just dropped a non-lined game to CS-Northridge, at home, 90-83. Pepperdine blew a double-digit lead as defense continues to be a problem for them. They're allowing 77.6 PPG so far, which is just awful, and one of their wins (Miami OH) saw them miraculously rally back from an 18-point deficit in the second half to win 88-80. Something that you may not be aware of is that the Waves won all of six games LY. So Lorenzo Romar has the program at least pointed in the right direction in his second stint coaching the team. 

But this is just the second "true" road game for the Waves w/ the first being an 88-80 loss to Northern Colorado. It'll also mark the first time they've been a "true" road favorite since the 2015-16 season! They've won a total of just 15 games the past two seasons and are 1-27 SU their last 28 road games! So you can see where I'd be of the belief that this is far too many points for them to lay. UC Riverside isn't exactly Duke, but they are sufficient enough to cover this generous spread. The Highlanders also have revenge here for an 11-pt loss LY at Pepperdine where the Waves took and made 13 more free throws. Pepperdine does deserve to be favored here, but not by this much. 10* UC Riverside

10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): I'm alot higher on this Cornhuskers team than most people. They finally cracked the Top 25 this week, but probably should be a lot higher. They're 7-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to a very good Texas Tech team, at a neutral site, on a poor shooting night. I took them when they went to Clemson and won as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. They followed that up by beating Illinois 75-60 in the Big 10 opener. They jumped all over the Illini, racing out to a 13-2 lead and never trailed. They never led by less than nine points the entire second half. The biggest key was the frequency w/ which they got to the FT line. They went 25 of 30 from the line for the game. For the year, Nebraska is now outscoring teams by 23.8 points per game.

Minnesota is a team I faded in their Big 10 opener. The Gophers had to go to Columbus to face Ohio State and lost 79-59. The game played out similarly to Nebraska-Illinois, only w/ the Gophers playing the role of the Illini. The score was 26-7 a little over 10 minutes in and never really got close after that. Perhaps the most incredible thing of all is that Minnesota missed all 13 three-point attempts it took. At home, that's highly unlikely to be repeated, but note Nebraska can be just as effective defensively as Ohio State. In fact, the Cornuskers rank slightly higher than the Buckeyes in defensive efficiency (17th vs. 21st) and scoring (4th vs. 17th).

Nebraska is 6-1-1 ATS on the season. Thus, you'd think they'd carry more respect in the marketplace. Yet they're only a small favorite against an inferior foe that just got blown out. I realize it's a "true" road game, in conference, but the Cornhuskers already went to Clemson (ranked at the time) and won. Minnesota has been dreadful in its two road games while going 6-0 SU at home or neutral sites. But even the home court can't save them here as Nebraska will own a substantial edge on the glass and their smothering defense figures to turn the Gophers over w/ great regularity. Something to keep in mind is that the 'Huskers won here LY, 91-85 as a 3.5-pt dog.  10* Nebraska 

8* Northeastern (6:45 ET): N'eastern might be down some bodies, but give the Huskies a ton of credit for still competing. They're actually missing three starters from LY's team, not because of graduation mind you, but rather due to injuries. This includes their top two scorers, Vasa Pusica and Shawn Occeus. You'd think that they'd be struggling in light of this rash of injuries, but instead they're off B2B wins, both coming by double digits! They won at Bucknell by 18 on November 28th, then returned home to down Eastern Michigan by 14 on Saturday. The task will obviously be far greater tonight in the Carrier Dome, but Northeastern is getting too many points here.

Syracuse is 5-2 SU. Given "brand recognition," it's not a surprise they drew votes for the latest Top 25 poll, though they didn't quite make it in. I don't think they belong there anyway, even though they did go to Ohio State and record an impressive 72-62 road win last week (part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge). That was followed up w/ a 63-55 win against Cornell over the weekend. But be wary of the Orange in this spot as they have a lookahead to long-time rival Georgetown this weekend. That game has always carried significant meaning throughout the tenure of Jim Boeheim, who is now in his 42nd year at the helm (incredible!). Also, last week's efforts were not exactly indicative of what we saw from this team in the first four games, which included losses to both UConn and Oregon.

Syracuse came nowhere close to covering the 21.5-pt spread against Cornell on Saturday. They are now just 2-4 ATS as favorites. Now, one of Boeheim's sons plays for Cornell (the other plays for him!), so you could argue the coach may have taken it easy. I don't think that's the case, however. The 'Cuse shot 50% overall for the game, yet still couldn't manage to pull away. Normally, this is not a great shooting team. They are just 41.9% overall for the year, including a woeful 29.1% from 3-pt range. Meanwhile, six of Northeastern's top seven scorers can shoot the three and they are 41.1% from behind the arc. Three-point shooting can play a huge role w/ a double digit spread and I think the underdog easily stays within the number here. 8* Northeastern

10* Over Rutgers/Wisconsin (8:00 ET): Conference play isn't even a week old and already I'm 2-0 in the Big 10. Not only did I have an easy one w/ Ohio State (over Minnesota) yday, but Wisconsin beat Iowa for me on Friday. The Badgers are back in action Monday and I'm now looking at the total. This will be a much easier matchup than the one Friday in Carver-Hawkeye where they ended Iowa's unbeaten run. After trailing in that one by as many as eight in the 2H, they fought back admirably to win 72-66 and are now poised to go on a favorable run here in December w/ a friendly stretch of games. They're already 7-1 SU and have scored at least 72 pts in all but two games, one of those coming against Virginia in Atlantis (only loss). 

If you recall, Rutgers was also kind to me in one of their non-conference games. Quite frankly, it was one of the easiest bets I've ever made in College Basketball, if not any sport. Back on November 19th, they blew out Eastern Michigan 63-36, a game in which they led 31-4 at halftime. That tied an all-time NCAA mark for fewest points ever allowed in a 1st half. Needless to say, the Scarlet Knights won't have a better defensive performance the rest of this season, if ever again! Now they did turn in two additional strong efforts in beating Boston U and Miami FL. But conference play opened w/ a loss to Michigan State where they surrendered 78 points. 

This is a low total. Looking at every game both teams have played this year, only one has had a lower O/U line and that was Wisconsin's game vs. Virginia. The Over is 3-0 so far when the Badgers play here in Madison w/ them averaging 86.7 PPG. As I alluded to in my analysis for the Iowa game, this is a much improved team from LY thanks to Ethan Trice (missed 23 games in 2017-18) back in the fold. He came into that Iowa game leading the country in 3-point shooting at 60%. Rutgers' defensive numbers are still skewed by that outlier performance against Eastern Michigan. I think what we saw vs. Michigan State is more in line from what we'll get from them in Big 10 play. Wisconsin is actually 17th nationally in offensive efficiency right now. This one finds a way to sneak Over. 10* Over Rutgers/Wisconsin

8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The mood this morning in Columbus may be one of resignation as the fate of Ohio State's football program seems destined NOT for the College Football playoff. But the Buckeyes' basketball program, not bad in its own right, can certainly lift the campus' spirits w/ a big win tonight. Over the last week, you may have heard about the NCAA's much maligned new rating system, NET (replacing RPI), which had Ohio State as the #1 team in the land. That ranking was met w/ almost universal mockery and it certainly didn't help that the Buckeyes lost their first game after the rankings were released. Wednesday, here in Columbus, they went down to Syracuse 72-62 as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. But foolish rankings aside, OSU remains a strong team ready to do damage as Big 10 play gets underway Sunday. I'll lay the points here.

The Buckeyes started the season 6-0 w/ a couple of impressive road wins over Cincinnati and Creighton. Considering Creighton just took #1 Gonzaga to the limit yday (led by double digits) and Cincy's rep, there's no denying those are two quality wins. Against Syracuse, a good team, things kind of fell apart in the second half. The Orange finished the game at 46% from three-point range (11 of 24), a far cry from what previous Buckeyes' opponents had shot from behind the arc. Consider that - for the season - OSU is still allowing only 28.7% shooting from three-point range. So we'll just consider what the 'Cuse did to be an aberration. It was also the just the school's ninth loss in the L42 home games. 

Minnesota also comes in at 6-1 SU on the year. The Golden Gophers lost their Big 10-ACC Challenge game, 68-56 at Boston College, which was their first and only "true" road game thus far. They've also played a game since, vs. Oklahoma State, which they won 83-76. But might that extra game be a "detriment" when it comes to preparing for this Big 10 opener? I think it may. Ohio State has been off since Wednesday while its just a 48-hour turnaround for the Gophers. Minny played OK State at U.S. Bank Stadium (home of the NFL's Vikings) and caught a break w/ their opponent going just 12 of 24 from the FT line. They still allowed the Pokes to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range, which could be a problem here. In that one "true" road game so far, the Gophers shot a horrific 29.2% from the field. They've played a challenging schedule, but figure to come up short again here. 8* Ohio State

10* Butler (5:00 ET): We'll probably always associate Butler w/ the back to back runs to the National Title Game under former HC Brad Stevens in 2010-11. But, seven years later, the program remains quite strong. I believe the Bulldogs are worthy of Top 25 consideration right now as they've started 5-1 SU w/ a win over Florida last week. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Round of 32 in LY's NCAA Tournament where it bowed out to second-seeded Purdue by just two points. Today is their first "true" road game of the season and we find them only laying a small number to a St. Louis squad it defeated by 30 points last year. I realize it's now a road game, but Butler should handle its business w/ relative ease Saturday. Lay the points.

Butler had been favored in all of its games before facing Florida (pick 'em). They did drop a disappointing decision to Dayton, 69-64 as seven-point chalk, back on November 21st. But they quickly responded w/ a 31-point win over Middle Tennessee, then came the big win over Florida. All those games took place down in Atlantis. It was an off-shooting night in the loss to Dayton, but a much different story vs. MTSU. Against Florida, it was a dominant 2nd half w/ the Bulldogs shooting 50% from the floor while "tightening the screws" on the Gators, holding them to just 29% overall, including 1 of 12 on three-point attempts. Butler is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency right now and a solid 41st defensively, per KenPom. 

St. Louis has the same 5-1 SU record as Butler, so it's a little surprising that they're only 1-5 ATS. Then again, they've been double digit favorites in four of the ATS losses and gone 0-4 vs. the number. That tells me that this is not a dominant team, even against lesser competition. The Billikens do hold an upset over Seton Hall, on the road, a rare instance of the visitor drastically outshooting its host from behind the arc. But they followed that up w/ an outright loss to Pitt (as a 4-pt favorite) in yet another hard-fought game that was decided by just two points. Last weekend, they beat Central Arkansas by only 12 points. A St. Louis team that ranks 137th in offensive efficiency is going to have issues scoring today and I just don't see them keeping up w/ their sharpshooting opponent. 10* Butler

8* Marquette (2:30 ET): As we continue to look to "pick off" teams from the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens, Kansas State will be our next target. The 6-0 Wildcats certainly aren't a fraudulent team by any means, but they're certainly overrated at #12 in the polls. Despite that ranking, they check in as slight underdogs on Saturday to an unranked Marquette team. This is the oddsmakers essentially "tipping their hand" and I'll call for the Wildcats to fall for the 1st time this season. This will be their first "true" road game and despite winning the Paradise Jam, it's hardly been a daunting schedule thus far for Bruce Weber's team. Meanwhile, Marquette won't be intimidated here having already faced the likes of Indiana, Kansas & Louisville. Lay the short number here. 

Marquette played two of those three teams tough, even beating Louisville (who just upset Michigan State) in overtime. That came two days after losing to Kansas 77-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. Both those games came at a neutral setting (New York City) as part of the NIT Tipoff. The only game the Golden Eagles played poorly this year was when they traveled to Indiana for their lone "true" road game to date. After "upsetting" L'ville (actually favored), Marquette returned home to play Charleston Southern on Tuesday. They won that game easily, 76-55 as 18.5-pt chalk. It was the fourth time this season the Golden Eagles held an opponent below 60 points. The fact that this team was favored over Louisville I think is pretty instructive as to the caliber of team we're getting here. 

If Marquette does struggle in one area, it's taking care of the basketball. They've turned it over on 20% of their possessions this year and I can see where that would be a problem vs. a team like Kansas State. But, at home, I suspect protecting the basketball will be priority #1. Remember that KSU has not had to play in a hostile environment all year. Marquette is 31-10 SU its last 41 home games and is #26 nationally in offensive efficiency. Aside from the Indiana game, they've played good defense as well. In four home games, they've allowed just 52.5 PPG. No one is going undefeated this season and for Kansas State, they'll taste defeat for the first time Saturday afternoon. 8* Marquette

10* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): There were still 18 teams without a loss in College Basketball entering yday. We targeted one of them, Sacramento State, who happened to be the weakest of the lot. They went down pretty easily (75-58), leaving us w/ 17 teams still w/ a "0" in the loss column. It's very likely that most of these teams are going to suffer that first loss soon, so I'd make a note of who's on "the list." Now the "elite" teams are less likely to lose, but those not defined by that label are easy targets. Such as this Iowa team I'll be playing against tonight. The Hawkeyes were lucky to escape at home vs. Pitt Tuesday, winning by just a single point as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge (which ended in a 7-7 tie). Wisconsin was similarly fortunate to win its game, but as the oddsmakers are clearly letting you know here, they're the better team. 

Not all unbeaten records are created equal and in this case of Iowa, it's been a pretty weak slate of opponents thus far. They did beat Oregon (ranked #13 at the time) in the semis of the 2K Classic on what was a cold-shooting night for the Ducks. The Hawkeyes have yet to play a "true" road game, something that will change next week when they visit East Lansing to play Michigan State. So we're probably going to learn a lot about this Hawkeyes team in the next two games. What we do know is they allowed Pitt to shoot a stunning 61.3% from the floor in the 1H Tuesday. They put the clamps down in the 2H, allowing just 22 pts and rallying back from a seven-point deficit at the break. Tonight will be Iowa's toughest test to date. 

Wisconsin has played three straight top 40 teams, all of whom I'd say are at least at the level - if not better - than the Oregon team that constitutes Iowa's best win. The Badgers have had to face Oklahoma, Virginia and NC State in the last week, losing only to Virginia, who is a top five team. They lost 53-46 to the Hoos and seemed poised to be headed for a second straight defeat on Tuesday, before rallying late to get by previously unbeaten NC State. Like Iowa, the Badgers trailed by seven at the half - at home. But a 50-pt 2H saved them and now they can knock off a second straight unbeaten opponent. This is a double revenge spot for Wisconsin too as they're 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Hawkeyes the L2 seasons, including an 18-pt loss here in Iowa City LY. But remember that was one of the weakest Badgers' teams in recent memory (missed NCAA Tournament for first time in 19 years) and they're much improved for 2018-19, led by one of the top players in the country, Ethan Happ. I haven't even mentioned yet that due to injuries, Iowa is down to just nine scholarship players! Their unbeaten run ends tonight. 10* Wisconsin

10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Entering play on Thursday, there are still 18 unbeaten teams in College Hoops. Of those 18, Sacramento State is definitely the weakest and also happens to have the fewest number of wins (3). It's only inevitable that the Hornets drop a game and tonight appears to be the night as they visit an old "friend" of mine in UCSB. The Gauchos came through for me, big-time, in their season opener. They walloped a bad Wyoming team 76-66 in Laramie and are now 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS on the year and enter tonight on a three-game win streak. There is some question over whether or not G Max Heidegger plays here (concussion), but his status has been upgraded and I actually don't think the Gauchos even need him to cover this spread. Lay the points. 

I mentioned earlier that Sacramento State has played only three games. Two of the wins have been by five points or less, one of them coming in OT, and the other was over a NAIA school. So, yes, it's not a stretch to call this the weakest of the remaining unbeaten teams in the country - by a pretty substantial margin. One player (Marcus Graves) is carrying the Hornets right now. He's posted a triple-double (season opener) and made the game-winner in a 58-55 win over UC Davis on November 20th. Saturday vs. Cal State Fullerton, the Hornets did lead by as many as 18 pts in the 2H, but needed OT - plus 22-12-8 from Graves - to get the win. The Hornets were slight underdogs in the last two games and tonight is their 1st "true" roadie of 2018-19.

UCSB beat Sacramento State last year, on the road, 82-72 as an 8.5-pt favorite. A year later, the spread is roughly the same, even a little lower, at home. So I see value on a side that has won four straight while covering the three lined contests. Saturday against Idaho, UCSB didn't even shoot that well (36.7%), yet still won comfortably due to another outstanding effort on the defensive end. Thus far, the Gauchos have held their opponents to a ridiculous 35.6% from the floor, including just 22% from three-point range. They've played only two home games and won them by a combined 75 points. In addition to playing on this team at Wyoming, I also won w/ them in the last home game (vs. Montana State). They've been able to win w/o Heidegger before and would be able to do so again tonight. Sacramento State is way overvalued due to the "0" in the loss column. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

8* North Carolina (9:30 ET): Whenever I see these two teams matched up, I automatically think of the famous 1993 Title Game where Chris Webber called that infamous timeout he didn't have, costing Michigan a National Championship. That loss is one of four Title Game losses for the Wolverines in the last 26 years, the most recent coming last March to Villanova. But the Maize and Blue seem pretty determined to finally cut down the nets this year, starting 6-0 SU and they've already exacted revenge over 'Nova in a stunning 73-46 beatdown that took place IN PHILLY. But this game vs. North Carolina, part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge, is Michigan's toughest to date. At the start of the season, I don't think many would have expected the Wolverines to be favored in this spot, even in Ann Arbor. UNC is still the better team IMO and I'll gladly take the points. 

The ACC has typically owned this annual event with their Big 10 counterparts. Last year, they won 11 of the 14 games. So far this year, things have been a lot more even at four wins apiece. But all four wins by the Big 10 have been by four points or less, three of them by two pts or less, which is really incredible when you think about it. Overall, this has been a very tightly contested event as the ACC pulled out a couple close ones itself last night w/ Notre Dame beating Illinois 76-74 and Louisville upsetting #9 Michigan State in overtime. Of course, the majority of these results don't have a huge bearing on our play tonight, but I do think they're instructive as to how valuable taking points w/ the ACC side is. Especially when it's North Carolina, who is rarely an underdog and still #2 overall in my own personal power ratings (behind only Duke). 

The Tar Heels did drop a game last week, losing to Texas 92-89 as nine-point chalk. Sadly, I had the Heels in that one as the allowed the Longhorns to shoot the lights out in Vegas. Coby White did have 33 points for UNC, the most by any freshman since Harrison Barnes went for 40 back in 2011. The team did bounce back in the consolation game vs. UCLA, winning 94-78. The Heels have now scored at least 89 points in six straight games. This should be a fascinating battle between the #4 offensive team in the country (UNC) against the top defensive team (Michigan). But at the end of the day, North Carolina is way underrated at #11 in the Top 25. They are the better team here. 8* North Carolina

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Georgetown looks to be way overvalued in this spot, which seems odd given that they've failed to cover the number in five of their first six games. Now they've won five of the six games straight up, but only one by double digits and that was the first game vs. MD-Eastern Shore (68-53) where they were 30.5-pt favorites. After a Jamaican trip that saw them lose to Loyola Marymount and then barely squeak by USF (needed OT), the Hoyas returned home over the weekend and again played a close game, this time beating Campbell by only eight points. They did lead by as many as 22, but that advantage had shrunk to as few as 4 pts in the final minute. 

Richmond is having a bit of a disappointing start to the season. The Spiders are 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS and enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak. Two of the losses were blowouts. Down in Ft. Myers, they lost by 16 to Loyola Chicago, then followed that up by blowing a late lead against Wyoming. A return home over the weekend seemed like it would get this team back on track, but instead they lost outright to Hampton, 86-66, as 11-point favorites. That huge misfire has obviously influenced tonight's spread pretty severely and I think we're getting a ton of value (at least several points) w/ the dog here. 

Richmond led Wyoming by as many as 11 in the second half before blowing the game and losing by two. I suspect the disappointment of that result contributed to what we saw Sunday against Hampton as the Spiders fell behind 18-4 and never led. Richmond has been favored in five of their six games, so the fact that they're 2-4 SU has to be viewed as a massive disappointment. But here's where they can at least gain some confidence by standing toe to toe w/ a "better-known" school. Richmond has revenge for a 6-pt home loss to G'town last year where the Hoyas shot the lights out (53.2% for the game). Even though the rematch is in D.C., I don't envision the Hoyas shooting that well again. The Spiders did lose third leading scorer Nick Sherod in the last game, but the team is almost guaranteed to improve its three-point shooting (went 3 of 21 vs. Hampton) even w/o him. Take the points. 10* Richmond

10* Nevada (9:00 ET): This is a colossal revenge game for the 5th ranked team in the country. As soon I saw this matchup for Tuesday, I instantly went back to last March when these teams met in the Sweet 16. Nevada, the 7-seed, led by as many as 12 early, but could not hold the lead and eventually found itself down double digits in the 2H. The final score was 69-68 as Loyola-Chicago would go on to make an improbable Final Four run. It's been awhile, so I can only assume my analysis of that game is long since forgotten. I'll briefly rehash here by reminding you I was on Loyola (+1.5) as Nevada's poor defensive efficiency stuck out like a "sore thumb" last year. But the Wolf Pack are much improved in that area this year, not to mention #1 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). Playing for major revenge, I'll lay the points w/ Nevada in this rematch. 

For some, it will probably take some getting used to seeing Nevada so high in the national rankings. I'm here to say "get used to it." As it stands now, I have the Wolf Pack set to win more games this year than any other team in the country besides Gonzaga. (BTW, shame on the Pac 12 for not even having a team in the discussion for superiority out West). As I said earlier, this is the top offensive team in the country right now as they average 92.0 PPG and have won all six games by double digits. They just dropped 110 pts on UMass in the Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational on Friday, shooting an incredible 67.4% from two-point range while also making 11 of 22 three-pointers. This team is as deep as any in the country right now. 

But the big difference between this Nevada team and last year is the defensive end of the floor. This year, they are allowing just under 70 PPG and rank a respectable 48th in defensive efficiency and are holding opponents to just 22.8% shooting from three-point range, which is key. Back in March, they allowed Loyola to shoot 55% for the game. That won't be happening again. The Ramblers aren't as strong a team this year as they lost three starters from the Final Four squad and have not played the most challenging of schedules either. Not only did they just lose to Boston College in Fort Myers, earlier in the year they dropped a home game to Furman. Nevada will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date. While the Wolf Pack don't force a lot of turnovers defensively, that issue is mitigated by them not turning it over much themselves and defending the 3-pt line well. 10* Nevada

8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): Last night, I won w/ a road team (Nebraska) that I thought should be favored in this Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Tonight, the road team I like is favored, only it's not by nearly enough. I'm also pivoting to the ACC school here as Va Tech comes in unbeaten and ranked #13 in the country. I suspect that many are suspicious of the Hokies, given we're not used to seeing them among the "blue bloods" of the sport. But Buzz Williams' team is most definitely "for real" as they've covered all five games so far and rank 7th nationally in offensive efficiency. I'll gladly lay the short number on the road here. 

Penn State has already dropped a couple of games, admittedly both of them very close decisions. They lost by two @ DePaul and by three to Bradley on a neutral court. Still, those results don't exactly bode well when getting set to face the #13 team in the country. Against Bradley, junior Lamar Stevens led the way w/ 27 points, his 5th consecutive 20+ pt effort. However, he got little help from his teammates, who combined to score just 29 points on 10 of 39 shooting. The depth issue in Happy Valley will soon be alleviated when Mike Watkins returns to the team. Watkins has yet to play this season due to an ongoing mental health issue. HC Patrick Chambers has said Watkins might play tonight, but he won't be enough to turn the tide in this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup. 

Va Tech has already beaten one Big 10 team this year, that being #19 Purdue, on their way to winning the Cancun Classic two weekends ago. They've since clobbered St. Francis (PA) 75-37. But even though they won by 38, that was actually only an 11-point game at halftime. But the Hokies were completely dominant over the final 20 minutes, holding the Red Flash to just 15 points. Tonight marks the Hokies' first "true" road game of the season, but I think they'll be up to the task. This team is legit as I've got them right around the same national ranking the pollsters do in my own personal power ratings. Penn State simply lacks the offensive firepower necessary to keep pace here. 8* Virginia Tech

8* Nebraska (7:00 ET): This is the first game of the annual "Big 10-ACC Challenge" and these schools met in LY's event as well. The 2017 meeting also took place here in Death Valley w/ Clemson holding serve 60-58, though they did not come close to covering the 10.5-point spot. This year, the Cornhuskers are a much stronger team, one more than capable of pulling the upset here. In fact, my numbers say they should be favored here and are also a top 20 team in the country. Nebraska will be a player in the Big 10 this year, mark my words, and they'll help the conference here w/ a win in an event usually owned by the ACC. Take the points.

This will be Nebraska's first "true" road game. They do have a loss already, to Texas Tech in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. But the Red Raiders are really good right now and ranked #3 in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. I'm really not sure how the Red Raiders aren't in the Top 25 (should be after Monday). Clemson is (#16 as of this writing), but off a loss to another Nebraska school, that being Creighton. It was an 87-82 loss on Wednesday. The Tigers haven't played since. Meanwhile, Nebraska did get a chance to bounce back from its lone loss. In Lincoln, they clobbered Western Carolina over the weekend (Saturday), 73-49. 

In a two-point loss LY on this court, Nebraska missed 14 of 18 three-point attempts. That was essentially the difference in a game where neither side shot well overall. Clemson also had a massive edge in free throws (+15 in attempts, +13 in makes). Not so sure the Tigers can count on those same advantages being present this time around. Nebraska is averaging 80.5 PPG so far this season, but it's real strength is its defense, which ranks 4th nationally in scoring (51.7 PPG allowed). I realize that Clemson lost only one game on its home court this season, but it is 0-3 ATS here in Death Valley so far this season. Being left out of the NCAA Tournament (despite 22 wins) last year has this Cornhuskers team highly motivated coming into 2018-19. I'm higher on this team than most and look for them to justify my faith Monday night. 8* Nebraska

10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For already the third time this season, Wofford gets a crack at a Power 5 school. They're 0-2 so far, but have taken on North Carolina and Oklahome. They actually got the Tar Heels at home (season opener!), but that's obviously one of the top teams in the country. Still, the Terriers only lost by 11. They lost by that same margin down in Norman, Oklahoma. South Carolina certainly isn't on the level of a UNC and I don't even have them at OU's level. Therefore, this number looks inflated. Wofford has topped 90 points in three games vs. lesser competition while South Carolina is 1-4 ATS w/ two SU losses. Take the points.

Wofford got to host the Gamecocks LY and came up well short, 73-52 as 6.5-pt dogs. They shot poorly (34.7% overall!) while South Carolina went 11 of 23 from behind the arc. To call this a huge week in the history of the Wofford basketball program would be putting it mildly. After this game, they'll host East Tenn State in the SoCon opener (East Tenn St won Conf Tourney last season). Then it's a date w/ current #1 Kansas. But don't think for a second that Wofford is going to overlook South Carolina, an in-state opponent, as this represents a golden opportunity to knock off a P5 school. 

The Gamecocks did not play at all the week of Thanksgiving. Last time we saw them, they turned in easily their best performance to date, a 90-55 whitewashing of George Washington. The Gamecocks were 11.5-pt favorites, so it was a game they were expected to win comfortably. But I think that final margin of victory has had some unnecessary influence on this line. You do have to tip your cap to the way South Carolina defended against GW. They limited the Colonials to 28% shooting overall, including 4 of 27 in the 1H. They went into halftime w/ an incredible 56-18 lead. Things won't come that easy again the rest of this season and certainly not tonight against a mid-major that shoots the ball very well. South Carolina is just 5-15 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days of rest. 10* Wofford

8* William & Mary (4:00 ET): W&M comes into this game on a four-game losing streak, including a home defeat at the hands of Radford Tuesday. That last loss sounds worse than it really is as not only Radford is going to be a player in the Big South this year (top team), but W&M was incredibly short-handed for the contest, down three starters. Still, oddsmakers had the game listed as pick 'em even though the Tribe were starting three freshman. Now it isn't good that W&M allowed Radford to shoot 58% for the contest or that they rank outside the top 300 (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. But, the Tribe can score as is evident by placing in the Top 60 (per KenPom) on the offensive end. Last year's team averaged 85.0 PPG, which was 4th best in the country. 

St. Joe's is coming off a loss in the third place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational last weekend. After clobbering Wake Forest in the first game (won by 20 pts), the Hawks went down in the next two, losing to UCF and WVU. The West Virginia loss is certainly excusable, but losing by to 20 UCF wasn't the best of looks. Also, there has to be a concern over the Hawks lack of defense in those two games as they face a William & Mary team that will definitely want to pick up the pace. Not only did St. Joe's give up 97 points to West Virginia, but they also let UCF shoot 55% from the field. 

William & Mary's health is obviously important to this game, but it looks as if at least two of the three starters that missed the Radford game will return here. This is a young team, but the freshman getting so much playing time against Radford will be beneficial for the future. The loss to Radford snapped a 23-game home non-conference win streak for the Tribe. This is an explosive team that should thrive in the underdog role Saturday afternoon. They were also short-handed against Notre Dame last week and still managed to cover that game. Besides Radford, the Tribe's other three losses all came in "true" road games and one (to UIC) was by just five points. Don't be surprised at an upset here. 8* William & Mary

8* Cal Poly (10:00 ET): Portland is the host team in this tourney and won its first game, 73-56 over USC Upstate. It was their third win in a row and fourth of the season. But most of the wins haven't been all that impressive. Two were against non-board teams and they allowed over 100 pts in the season opener vs. Multnomah Bible College, a NAIA school that went 22 of 50 from three-point range. There was another close call at Cal State Northridge, whom the Pilots downed 80-77, but only after trailing by as many as 18 pts. So what I'm saying is that I really don't trust this team laying this many points, even if they are the tourney hosts. 

Cal Poly is a conference rival of Cal State Northridge. So maybe they had a chance to dial up the Matadors' coaching staff for a scouting report. Even if they didn't, look for the Mustangs to keep up in this game. They've lost three in a row, so motivation should be high here. Two of those three losses were to Pac 12 schools, Arizona and Wazzu, so no shame there. The most recent one came here in Portland in an ugly 54-42 game w/ Texas State. The Mustangs actually led the game at the half, 23-16, but went scoreless for nine minutes in the 2H and that was the difference in the game.

Cal Poly has not been a good ATS team the last three seasons, going just 18-39 vs. the number overall. That includes a hideous 1-14 mark after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. But I'll call for them to buck the trend here. The issues against Texas State were a) getting dominated on the boards and b) shooting only 3 of 16 from three-point range. Both of those issues are easily correctable facing Portland. First off, the Pilots aren't a great rebounding team. Two, we already talked about their issues defending the three-point line. Take the points here. 8* Cal Poly

10* North Carolina (7:30 ET): This game is part of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational in Vegas and the Tar Heels are forced to make the trip w/o starting PG Seventh Woods as he sustained a concussion in practice on Tuesday. But it's important to note that HC Roy Williams has five players averaging double figures so far and Woods isn't one of them. Yes, he's an important piece, but he only averages 2.8 PPG, which is 11th best on the team. As per usual, this is a deep team coming from Chapel Hill and they've already topped 100 pts three times, albeit against much lesser competition. You'd think a team like UNC might be overvalued heading into its first real test of the season, but the opposite actually holds true here due to the Woods' injury. Lay the points.

Texas, like North Carolina, comes to Las Vegas unbeaten. The Longhorns are 4-0, having already survived an overtime test from Arkansas earlier in the year. Shaka Smart's team is not nationally ranked and my own power rankings confirm they shouldn't be as I've got them just on the outskirts of the top 40. I've already played against them one time already, that being a horrible spot vs. LA Monroe, which was the game after they beat Arkansas in OT. The 'Horns never came close to covering the 19-point spot there, winning only 65-55. They've since recorded their first ATS win of the season as they destroyed The Citadel 97-69 last Friday. The long layoff coming into this Tournament doesn't look like a good thing for Texas, however. They're 0-6 ATS the L6 times playing w/ five or six days rest.

Strangely, Texas has had UNC's number through the years. Roy Williams is just 1-6 SU/ATS vs. the Longhorns as the coach of the Tar Heels, but that record should change for the better after tonight. Were Woods healthy, I would guess this line would be double digits. Missing your starting PG is a big deal, but I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted. While Texas is 1-3 ATS, UNC is 3-1-1 ATS despite being favored by double digits in every game. Their only ATS loss came last time out in a 101-76 win over St. Francis (PA) where they were 27-pt chalk. I've got the Tar Heels ranked right behind rival Duke as the #2 team in the country. Too much scoring for Texas to keep up, in my opinion.  10* North Carolina 

10* Richmond (5:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I've already targeted multiple times this season and I've been successful on every occasion. The first was the season opener vs. UC-Santa Barbara when they lost by 10 as six-point favorites. That may end up as one of the worst lines set by the oddsmakers all year. The next time I faded the Cowboys was last Friday, again at home, facing Niagara. The Pokes lost outright yet again, this time falling 72-67 as 7.5-pt chalk. They're now 0-5 ATS on the season after losing 88-76 to Boston College on Monday, a game they were NOT "supposed" to win as they came in as eight-point underdogs. 

This game takes place in Ft. Myers, Florida and will be the second game for both Richmond and Wyoming here. I already mentioned that Wyoming lost to BC on Monday, well, that same night saw Richmond fall to Loyola-Chicago by 16 points. We all remember the Ramblers making it to the Final Four last Spring, but that was still a disappointing setback for Richmond as they were just seven-point underdogs in the contest. The Spiders come into today's game at 2-2 SU overall, having also lost to Longwood in the season opener. But they've shot well since that defeat, making almost 55% of their field goal attempts the L3 games! The problem against Loyola was the defense as they permitted the Ramblers to shoot a ridiculous 61% from the field. 

Wyoming won't be shooting that well Wednesday as their field goal percentage for the year is just 40.2. The Cowboys were picked to finish 7th in the 11-team Mt West before the season and look to be worse than projected as they are already short-handed (two players injured) in addition to losing four of the top five scorers from last year's team. The Pokes are also incredibly deficient on the defensive end, which is bad news against a Richmond squad that is shooting the ball very well right now. Look for the Spiders to run away with this one as Wyoming looks even worse on the defensive end than they were a season ago. 10* Richmond

8* WI-Green Bay (10:00 ET): It's been an impressive run so far out on the West Coast for Green Bay w/ them upsetting Eastern Washington and then taking care of Morehead State. Tonight, the task is far tougher as they head down to Oregon, but I think the Phoenix will be up for it. They're getting a lot of points here against a team in prime letdown mode following a big win. This is the end of the non-bracketed 2K Empire Classic, an event which has seen GB play two "true" road games already and go a perfect 2-0 ATS in them. The last game (vs. Morehead State) may have been the most impressive performance to date as the Phoenix led by double digits most of the second half in a game where they were a slight underdog. I'll take the points here.

Oregon is nationally ranked (#21) and I'm not going to disagree w/ the pollsters on that. But this 2K Empire Classic Event has not been all "wine and roses." They lost to Iowa in Madison Square Garden last week, 77-69, a game in which the Ducks shot just 37.1% from the floor. They never led and were down 11 at halftime. Now compare that to Green Bay's performance against the Hawkeyes, which came in Iowa City, where the Phoenix were down by only one point entering halftime. After losing to Iowa, Oregon has since rebounded w/ an 80-65 win over Syracuse, also in MSG. They were better in all facets in that game, namely holding the Orange to just 35.3% shooting. But don't think for a second that result didn't affect this line, which now looks to be inflated. 

Both of these teams have beaten Eastern Washington, Oregon doing so in much more lopsided fashion, but for them it was a home game while Green Bay had to go to Cheney to get the win. The Phoenix are 3-0 ATS their last three games and the two SU losses they have suffered so far have come by a total of 15 pts. The Ducks will be their toughest opponent to date and this is a third consecutive game out West in a five-day span. The win over Eastern Washington was an overtime game as well. But this is just too many points to lay if you're Oregon, which will have to deal w/ a full-court press that forced Iowa into 17 turnovers. Also, Green Bay has topped 80 points in three straight games, so it's going to be really tough to score enough to cover a big number like this against them. 8* WI-Green Bay

10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): Playing at home, I think Rutgers deserves more than being just a "token favorite." Sure, Eastern Michigan will be a player in the MAC this season, but all the Eagles have done so far is roll up some wins against unimpressive teams and also get annihilated by Duke. Now that latter component won't exactly put them in exclusive company by season's end. But it's the wins that have been less impressive to me, particularly one that they share over a common opponent w/ Rutgers. That would be Drexel, who EMU beat by only four points up in Ypsilanti back on November 9th. Just two days later, the Scarlet Knights rolled the Dragons by 29 in this very building. Those two results against the same opponent tell me that the favorite is undervalued in this one. 

Eastern Michigan is 4-1 so far. But their first three wins weren't all that impressive as they had the close call w/ Drexel and then two others against non-DI teams. The Eagles knew they'd be up against it facing Duke, but things went even worse than expected as they trailed 48-13 at the half and would go on to lose 84-46. Saturday saw the Eagles turn in - easily - their best performance so far as they beat Boston U 80-62 as 7.5-pt chalk and shot 52.5% overall. Senior Eliajh Minnie led the way w/ 28 pts, including 5 of 9 from three-point land. But I question the Eagles' ability to sustain that kind of three-point shooting. They were just 31% as a team from behind the arc including Minnie's 1 of 13. On the road, I think their struggles from deep are likely to reappear. 

While Rutgers is hardly a "flagship" Big 10 program, they're still a Power 5 school and Eastern Michigan has not done well in such spots. Since beating Michigan 45-42 back in 2014, the Eagles have lost nine straight to Power 5 schools and are just 5-43 SU in such games the L20 years. This includes a 3-23 SU record vs. the Big 10. The Scarlet Knights are off their first loss of the season, which was a wake-up call, as they fell by 19 here at home to St. John's on Friday. After averaging 92.5 PPG on roughly 53% shooting in the first two games, Rutgers shot just 34.9% in the loss to St. John's while at the same time allowing the Johnnie's to shoot 16 of 32 from three-point range. I suspect tonight will be a big-time bounce back from that loss. 10* Rutgers

8* Valparaiso (10:30 AM ET): The Myrtle Beach Invitational wraps up Sunday. This is a consolation game as both Wake and Valpo lost their first game. The team that Valpo lost to - Western Kentucky - will be playing in the Championship Game later tonight. There was not shame in losing to the Hilltoppers considering Valpo was a seven-point dog. WKU would also go on to upset West Virginia on Friday. Wake Forest lost its first game to a St. Joe's team that would go on to get blown out by UCF. The Demon Deacons did gain a measure of redemption Friday by beating CS-Fullerton in spite of shooting 33.9% for the game. Valpo beat Monmouth 64-53 as a six-point favorite. 

Wake lost 20 games last season, the fourth under HC Danny Manning. The season started well enough w/ a 90-pt effort over North Carolina A&T, but even then they only won by 12 as 21.5-pt favorites. Then came the St. Joe's loss where they fell victim to 16 three-pointers. Given that kind of shooting, the Demon Deacons had little chance and lost by 20. They did bounce back w/ a 66-59 win over CS-Fullerton. But even then, they needed to score the game's final seven points. To win here, they'll either need to shoot better than they did vs. CS-Fullerton or defend better than they did vs. St. Joes. Maybe both. Regardless, my numbers indicate the wrong team is favored this morning. 

Valpo was outshot badly by Western Kentucky in the first game here, but as I said earlier, that's no longer looking like a bad loss. They bounced back w/ a nice shooting night against Monmouth, also holding the Hawks to just 53 points. Over three games, the Crusaders are shooting 53%. At the same time, they're allowing just 39.7% shooting. Again, in my opinion, they're the better team here and I'll take the points. 8* Valparaiso 

10* Cal Santa Barbara (5:00 ET): The Gauchos have already treated me well this season. I took them in the season opener when they went to Wyoming and came away w/ an outright 76-66 victory as 6.5-pt dogs. Now, we know Wyoming isn't very good as we faded them again last night and came away w/ another outright winner, this time on Niagara getting 6.5 points. UCSB losing its second game, 82-63 at North Dakota State, has created a ton of value on this pick. Note the Gauchos were w/o Max Heidegger in that game as he was out w/ a concussion. He is expected back today as the team plays its second home game. They successfully rebounded from that loss to North Dakota State by thrashing D-III Cal Lutheran 88-32 on Tuesday. Lay the points here.

Montana State is a team we tried fading Wednesday, but they surprised me w/ a strong effort in covering at Colorado State. They still lost, mind you, 81-77 as 12.5-pt chalk. The Bobcats had not fared well at all in their first two games (more on that in a second), but were able to keep pace in Ft. Collins due to outshooting CSU from behind the three-point arc. Montana State made a season-best 14 three-pointers in that game while CSU went just 6 of 30 from behin the arc. I think I should reiterate the fact that the Bobcats first two games of the season saw them lose by 30 to Utah State (at home) and then by 45 at Indiana. This isn't a good team. Their one win came against non-board team Presentation College. 

These teams played last year w/ UCSB winning in a rout, 91-69. That game was Bozeman (on the road) and the Gauchos were actually slight dogs going in. I expect a somewhat similar result here today. The likely return of Heidegger, an All-Big West selection last year, will have the Gauchos going 12 deep for this game. This is an underrated team by the oddsmakers right now, so keep an eye on them moving forward. Montana State is playing its second road game in four days and I don't believe they're capable of playing as well as they did Wednesday at Colorado State (who was a little short-handed). Lay the points. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

8* Niagara (9:00 ET): Despite the reputation of having a strong homecourt advantage (due to the hight altitude in Laramie), I had no problem fading Wyoming in their season opener. They lost - outright - as six-point favorites to UC Santa Barbara, 76-66. The Cowboys followed that up w/ another loss, at Oregon State, in their next game. They finally won for the first time on Wednesday, 86-78 over Grambling, but did not cover as 12-pt chalk. So their ATS record is now 0-3 as they return home to face Niagara. While the Purple Eagles may not be as formidable as UCSB, they can still cover the spread here, if not pull the outright upset. They've already pulled one upset, 80-72 over St. Bonaventure, though that one was at home. Take the points. 

The follow up to that upset wasn't as good for Niagara as they went down 75-62 at the hands of Loyola IL. But they still covered that game as 16.5-pt dogs. Remember that Loyola-IL was a Final Four team last March! Amazingly, the Purple Eagles stayed inside the number despite shooting less than 30% for the game! I have to imagine they'll be more productive on the offensive end tonight and a huge key to this game could be free throw shooting. Niagara shot 17 of 19 from the FT line in their last game and is 48th in FTA rate. Wyoming is 288th in opponents FTA rate. I also look for the underdog to have the rebounding edge in this battle. They are 32nd in the country so far, pulling down 38.9 boards per game. Wyoming is allowing 39.1 rpg, which ranks 303rd nationally. 

I just don't think this Wyoming team is very good this year. In my analysis for Opening Night against UCSB, I cited the fact the Pokes lost four of their top five scorers from a year ago and they project as a terrible defensive team also. Right now, the team simply can't shoot. Through the first three games, they are at just 40% overall from the field, including a dreadful 27.6% from behind the arc. That's trouble for a team that was 317th in the country in points allowed last season. So far, all three Wyoming opponents have scored at least 76 points. Giving up that many points makes it hard to cover as a favorite and it's right in line w/ what they gave up last year as well (78.7 PPG allowed). 8* Niagara

8* North Dakota State (2:00 ET): I do believe that the wrong team may be favored here in a 1st round matchup of the Bahamas Showcase. Miami OH might be off a 91-42 win, but it was against an overmatched opponent (Midway) w/ extreme shooting percentages. We won't be seeing the RedHawks shoot 56% again in this game nor will we see the hold the opposition to just 26%. Note that in the RedHawks' first game, they lost 90-68 at Butler with the shooting percentages basically flipped. 

Here they face a North Dakota State team off an impressive 82-63 win over Cal Santa Barbara. They held the Gauchos to just 37% shooting. That was a nice bounce back after losing out in Las Cruces (New Mex St) in the season opener. The Bison really struggled to shoot the ball in that first game, but were much better offensively on Sunday. After taking a 15-13 lead midway through the first half, they would never trail again. 

An interesting bit of handicapping here - Miami has not played in a true bracketed regular season tournament in a decade. So this format may not favor them. They are just 2-9 ATS their L11 neutral site games and don't have a ton of depth. Like I said at the outset, I think the Bison are the better team here, so I'll take the points. 8* North Dakota State

10* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I took exception w/ LSU being included in the Top 25. So I faded them and came away w/ an ATS win on Memphis. I feel even more strongly against TCU's placement in the Top 25. The Horned Frogs will come into tonight's game ranked #21 in the country, but I do not have them in my own personal top 50! So this looks like another great spot to take advantage of the pollsters and the perception they place on the betting public. I realize that TCU has a strong core group of players, but outside of their "big three" this is a relatively inexperienced team. Fresno State is only two years removed from a NCAA Tournament berth and won 21 games last season. They are absolutely capable of pulling the upset tonight in Ft. Worth. Take the points. 

Desmond Bane, JD Miller and Alex Robinson are going to have to carry this TCU squad early in the season because w/ PG Jaylen Fisher out, the other nine players are essentially all new faces. Throw in the fact that two of the new starters, Kouat Noi and Lat Mayen, are both out with knee injuries and depth has already become a bit of a concern for HC Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs are 2-0 thus far, but failed to cover against both CS-Bakersfield and Oral Roberts. The former matchup saw them win by only five despite being favored by 18. Dixon has never lost a November game since becoming the HC at TCU, but it could very well happen tonight, even though the Horned Frogs are double digit favorites.

Not only is Fresno State a little underrated in my eyes, the Bulldogs are also well rested coming into tonight's game. They've only played one game and it was last Tuesday against Alaska-Anchorage, an easy 91-63 win. New Mexico State transfer Braxton Higgins led the way w/ 23 points. I have to say that I'm a little shocked that the media picked this team to finish 5th in the Mt West given that FSU has won 20+ games each of the last three seasons as well as four of the last five. This rested underdog is also playing w/ a bit of revenge as they lost to TCU in the 2017 NIT, 66-59, but covered as nine-point dogs. Bottom line is that I have this game being way closer than the oddsmakers do. 10* Fresno State

10* Colorado State (9:00 ET): Colorado State has had to start the year short-handed thanks to redshirting and a suspension. But it's hardly mattered as they easily disposed of two non-board teams (Colorado Christian and Ark-Pine Bluff) by an average of nearly 30 PPG. The Rams have been able to sustain the personnel losses to the fact they're a deep team this year w/ multiple freshman already contributing. First year HC Niko Medved is doing a good job w/ this team and they should have very little difficulty dominating a terrible Montana State team Wednesday night. Lay the points. 

Montana State won for the 1st time on Sunday, beating a school named "Presentation College," (a NAIA school). But before that, the Bobcats had been absolutely annihilated in their first two games, losing 101-71 to Utah State and 80-35 at Indiana. I don't think tonight's game will go a whole lot better for them. Against Indiana, which was a road game, the Bobcats shot a dismal 25.5% from the field, which is one of the lowest percentages you'll see all season. I think the fact we're getting this team off a rare win is helpful. Not only is the spread not as high as it should be, but the players themselves might now be a bit overconfident. 

When it comes to depth, this matchup is a no-contest. Six different players are averaging at least 12 PPG for Colorado State while two players account for 44% of total scoring for Montana State. If the Rams can shut down either MSU standout, Keljin Blevins or Tyler Hall, then they'll have no problem winning this game in a romp. Turnovers should also be key here as the Bobcats have been giving away possessions quite regularly so far. They had 25 turnovers against Indiana, for example. In two games, CSU has turned it over just 15 times. Montana State is a program w/ eight straight losing seasons and they simply are overmatched again tonight. 10* Colorado State

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): This looks to be too many points that LSU is laying in their first "real" test of the season. Like every other game in this package, it's also a revenge spot for the team I'm taking. Memphis, in its first year under Penny Hardaway, figures to be a lot better than they were the last couple of seasons. They won their 1st game for Hardaway, as expected, 76-61 over Tennessee Tech. But they just missed out on the cover as 16-pt favorites. I'm going to like this Tigers team more as a dog anyway, like tonight. A dreadful shooting night cost them last year against LSU. The same thing won't happen again this time. Take the points.

LSU is 2-0 having topped 90 pts in both games. But there is some cause for concern, especially at the defensive end of the floor. In a 97-91 win over UNC Greensboro over the weekend, they allowed 19 made three-pointers, the most EVER by a visiting team in Baton Rouge! Overall, the Tigers are allowing 46.4% shooting from behind the arc, which will absolutely come back to bite them if that number can't come down. Memphis is a big step up in class for them after facing SE Louisiana and UNC Greensboro. LSU is a young team as well w/ freshman accounting for more than 50% of their total pts so far. 

Memphis has a lot of freshman they're hoping to see contribute as well. The four newcomers to the program struggled against Tenn Tech, but I see their collective numbers improving after they combined to shoot just 5 of 24 in that opening game. Hardaway luckily can rely on his seniors, one of them being Mike Parks Jr, who had to miss the opener due to a back injury. I mentioned earlier that Memphis shot the ball terribly LY vs. LSY. They were just 37.3% from the field, including 4 of 22 from three-point range, in the 71-61 loss as 2-pt home dogs. This year's squad is going to do better. I'm not sure why LSU finds itself in the Top 25 this week; I barely count them among my top 50 teams in the country. 8* Memphis

10* Florida International (7:00 ET): Wisconsin-Milwaukee has started out the season quite poorly w/ losses to Boston College (by 20) and North Dakota. Expect FIU to have little sympathy for the Panthers however, as this is a revenge spot for them. It stems from a 66-51 loss last season, which took place in Milwaukee where "our" Panthers were 13-pt underdogs. This time around, it would appear that FIU has a sizable edge, though it's not being properly accounted for by the oddsmakers. I'll gladly step in and lay the short number here as the favorite should take care of business. 

It may been two clearly overmatched opponents, but FIU is certainly feeling optimistic about its chances here based on a 2-0 start. They topped 100 pts against both Webber College and Johnson & Wales, two non-board teams. They averaged 113.5 PPG on 52.3% shooting in the pair of wins. Looking ahead, it may never again be quite that easy offensively, but the Panthers should definitely find ways to score in this game. 1st year HC Jeremy Ballard, the latest to be plucked from the VCU coaching tree, walked into a great situation here by inheriting four returning starters. Offense was the primary concern coming into the year, but Ballard's boys seem well on their way to blowing past LY's production when FIU ranked 317th nationally in three-point shooting. 

FIU is also playing some defense as it held the first two opponents to just 31.1% shooting while forcing 55 turnovers! Again, I realize the teams that they played had no chance. But the performances will definitely give this team some confidence for its first "real" test of the season. Wisc-Milwaukee is shooting a dreadful 30.3% from the floor so far and managed only 17 first half pts Saturday at home vs. North Dakota. It's a bad sign when you're leaning on a transfer who only averaged 1.4 PPG last season. Wisc-Milwaukee has just three players total back from LY's sub-.500 squad, including only one starter. They are going to struggle this year. 10* Florida International

8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Yet another revenge spot! Although unlike the other two matchups in this report, this is NOT a battle of teams w/ the same nickname. It is, however, a battle of in-state rivals. UNC Greensboro won LY's meeting, 71-58, as 8.5-pt home chalk. It would appear as if the oddsmakers are giving the Spartans a bit too much "credit" out here on the road. I can only assume that has to do w/ them taking #22 LSU down to the wire in Baton Rouge over the weekend. By making 19 three-pointers in the contest, the Spartans were easily able to cover the 10-pt spread in a 97-91 loss. But I don't think they'll replicate that kind of shooting here. 

UNC Wilmington is 0-2 on the year, so they enter tonight as a desperate team. A 97-93 loss to Campbell was an auspicious start to the year, but be aware that game went into overtime. It was close the whole way. That game was on the road, so the Seahawks hoped for better in their home debut Friday vs. Stanford where they were drawing an opponent making a rare cross-country trip. Unfortunately, the Seahawks lost that game by 13 on a bad offensive night (shot just 35.2% overall). They did lead by as many as eight early, but actually went into the break down 14 thanks to a 7 1/2 minute stretch w/o a field goal. 

So you have one team, laying points on the road, coming off a historically great shooting night. Then you have a home dog coming off a poor shooting performance. I'll side with the latter here in what should be a bounce back performance. It was poor shooting that cost the Seahawks last year's meeting. But I don't see that happening again. This is more points than they were getting against Stanford, which seems crazy. This is also UNC Greensboro's third straight road game to open the year, all played within a span of a week. Good spot to fade them. 8* UNC Wilmington

8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a bad spot for Texas to be laying so many points. Shaka Smart's Longhorns just survived an overtime game against Arkansas over the weekend, winning 73-71. Despite leading at the half, the Horns were somewhat lucky to even get the game into OT considering they went almost 10 minutes in the 2H w/o making a single field goal. Close games have somewhat become the norm in Austin under HC Smart as half of their games LY were decided in the final minute or overtime. Heck, they only won their opener against Eastern Illinois by 12 points. LA Monroe is an underdog deserving of respect. The Warhawks won't win, but they'll keep it close.

There was some fear in Monroe that this team might struggle to score in 2018-19 due to being fairly thin along the front line. However, so far, those fears have proven to be unfounded. Four players are averaging double figures so far, led by senior Daishon Smith (17.0 PPG), a transfer from Wichita State. And the concern about a lack of big men hasn't really mattered as the Warhawks have blocked 15 shots in two games, both wins. They've won at Jackson State (75-66) and then clobbered non-board team Millsaps 94-52 Saturday in the home opener. Against Millsaps, they shot better than 50%. Obviously, it's going to be a far greater challenge tonight. But this dog can score enough to stay within a generous number, in my opinion.

These squads met last year w/ Texas winning easily, 80-59 as 17.5-pt chalk. Both teams are better this season, so I'm a bit surprised to find the spread has increased for this rematch. LA Monroe shot very poorly LY here in Austin, making only 30% of their total shot attempts, including 8 of 34 from three-point range. They also attempted only 11 free throws. It's been established that the Warhawks are much better offensively now than they were at this time a year ago. We'll see about the size issue, but the Longhorns might still be gassed from playing an OT game 48 hrs ago. Plus they struggled to score, making covering a large number like this problematic. 8* LA Monroe

10* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Pitt is off to a nice start this season w/ a pair of double digit wins over Youngstown State and VMI coming by an average of 27.5 PPG. That may not sound like a whole lot to get excited about, but remember the Panthers hit a program low point last year when they went winless in ACC play. Right now, this team is underrated (and should continue to be in the early part of the season) as I love the Jeff Capel hire as HC. Capel learned under Coach K. While he has a young team, it's one that is coming together more quickly than expected. Lay the points.

Troy comes into this game 1-1. They did lead by as many as 13 at St. Louis on Saturday, but could not hold on due to poor shooting. The Trojans shot just 38.9% for the game, including a woeful 23.8% from three-point range. It was certainly a far cry from their 96-50 victory in the season opener against Fort Valley State, but then again that was to be expected given FVS is a D-II team. My view is that the Trojans are going to continue to struggle to score as Wesley Person (graduated) is going to be missed this season. Person scored more than 2,000 points and shot better than 37% from 3-pt range in his four years here.

Adding to Troy's offensive problems here is the fact Pitt held its first two opponents to 26.9% and 33.9% shooting and an average of 54 points. At the same time, Pitt shot 63% from the floor against VMI (who admittedly is NOT known for its defensive prowess). Three freshman have stepped up for the Panthers, who also got senior Jared Wilson-Frame back in the lineup vs. VMI. Pitt has covered its last six non-conference games and while Troy did cover at St. Louis, they're just 1-4 ATS when off an ATS win. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State (4:00 ET): Obviously, this is not a matchup I'd normally pay much attention to, unless something caught my eye. In this instance, we have a clearly inflated total due to the previous peformance of one of the two participants and that performance clearly is not going to be duplicated again here. I'm referencing Fort Wayne and their 112-point effort Thursday against D-III Earlham College where five players scored in double figures. It's a big step up in class for the Mastadons on Sunday as they visit Ohio State. 

While everyone in Columbus is probably still out celebrating yday's win on the football field over Michigan State, hopefully the basketball team's 64-56 win over Cincinnati was not missed. Wednesday night saw the Buckeyes (were +4.5) upset the Bearcats in the latter's return to its on-campus arena where it didn't even get to play one game all of last season. OSU did it w/ defense, holding Cincy to a ridiculously low 27.4% shooting for the game. It was a shockingly easy victory for the Buckeyes, who led virtually the entire way and at point held the Bearcats w/o a field goal for eight minutes in the 1st half. 

We obviously need to be wary of the Fort Wayne defense here as it was torched for 96 points by UCLA in the season's first game. But I don't see Ohio State coming close to matching that here, given they were hardly world-beaters offensively Wednesday night. They're looking to replace some key contributors from LY's 25-win team, including their top three-point shooter. Right before the start of the season, both of these teams lost a player; Ohio State via transfer and Ft. Wayne to injury. Note that Ft. Wayne was a dreadful 9 of 34 from three-point range in the game vs. UCLA. One good thing is they're allowing just 30% shooting from behind the arc in the two games. Look for this be more of a "grind it out" type game. 10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State  

8* UL Lafayette (7:00 ET): Tennessee is a top 10 team playing at home, but they're laying too many points here. Let's not put a ton of stock into the Vols' 81-46 over non-board team Lenoir-Rhyne either. The Bears did not have a single starter w/ more than one made field goal and they barely shot 20% from the field. Clearly, they were not a formidable opponent. But I believe the Ragin Cajuns can be as they too dominated a lesser opponent in their opener, scoring 121 points. Take the points. 

Louisiana shot a ridiculous 67.1% from the field en route to scoring 121 pts on the University of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Obviously, as is the case for UT, things will be nowhere near that easy tonight. But with six players scoring in double figures in the opener, the Ragin Cajuns certainly are capable of making a "run at it" this evening. This team shot 58.3% from three-point range in the opener. Am I a little concerned about the defense? Sure. But ULL can score enough to hang within a huge number. They won 27 games last season. This was a top 15 team nationally in scoring too.

Tennessee has a lot of hype, which may be working against it right now. I think there could be some defensive regression this year in spite of what we saw in the opener and all the talent back. Consider that over the last two seasons, the Vols are just 1-4 ATS when laying more than 12.5 points at home. They have bigger games they might be looking ahead to on the docket. This is the highest preseason ranking in school history. Two guards, Jalen Johnson and Lamonte Turner, are battling injuries and could be limited here. 8* UL Lafayette 

8* Evansville (8:00 ET): Both of these teams are in rebuild mode. Illinois is in the second year of their rebuild under HC Brad Underwood while Evansville is set to embark on its own, under 1st year HC Walter McCarty (yes, the former Kentucky standout). The situation almost begs for you to take the points as scoring should be at a premium in this game where both teams are trying to find their way. Both teams are expected to finish near the bottom of their respective conferences. Illinois, the favorite, allowed 73.8 PPG last season. Take the points.

The Illini bring back only four players from last season, one of them being talented guard Trent Frazier. He's pretty much the only holdover worth mentioning as the other key player figures to be highly touted freshman Ayo Dosunmu. Overall, Underwood will have SIX freshman playing for him this season, so this is a really young Illinois team. Such a young team could be likely to overlook an opponent like Evansville and is not a good candidate to lay points with. In the games that they were favored to win last season, the Illini only won by an average of 8.1 points per game. 

Evansville is going to have to deal w/ a press, but I feel the 1st game of the season allows you adequate time to prepare for that. Like Illinois, there is a lot of roster turnover here for the Purple Aces. It's top three scorers from last year are all gone and the three most talented players on the roster are all ineligible right now. That's hardly a good sign, but this team can play defense and hopefully that continues under McCarty. Lsat season, the Purple Aces ranked 11th in the country, giving up just 63.9 PPG. If they can keep Illinois close to that number, then they should cover w/ ease tonight. 8* Evansville

8* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Wright State should not be laying this many points, in my opinion. They did win 25 games and the Horizon League last season, but this year's squad lost two of that team's key players - Grant Benzinger and Justin Mitchell - both of whom were double digit scorers. Now it has been B2B 20+ win seasons for the Raiders under HC Scott Nagy and my projections for this year have them right line for that win total again this year. But this is a big number to lay for a team that was not a double-digit favorite all that often last year. Take the points. 

Western Carolina finished sixth in the SoCon last season w/ a sub-.500 record and was 13-19 SU overall. It was a poor finish to the regular season as the lost seven of their final 10 games, then were one and done in the Conference Tournament. For this year, the Catamounts have a new head coach (Mark Prosser), though he will need a find a way to replace lost production from the top two scorers from LY both graduating. While it may seem like Western Carolina has no chance here, don't be surprised to see them be a better shooting team than they were last year (were 327th in FG%).

It may seem odd that I'm calling for improved offense against a Wright State team that held its opponents under 60 PPG last year. But with this promising to be a pretty low-scoring game overall, taking the points is definitely the way to go. Wright State failed to score more than 65 points in almost a third of its games last season. Look for the underdog to find a way to stay under the big number. 8* Western Carolina

10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Wyoming traditionally has one of the top homecourt edges in the sport (high elevation!), but I don't think that alone wil be able to carry them against what is a gutty underdog. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. Under the guidance of a 1st year HC (Joe Pasternack), UCSB completed the second best single-season turnaround in D-I history last year, going from 6 to 23 wins. They were denied a postseason berth as they lost in the Big West Tourney semis, but did go 11-4 ATS on the road last season. Wyoming was a terrible defensive team LY and also lost four of its five top scorers. Take the points. 

UCSB also must deal with some key departures as they have only one starter back from last year's turnaround team. Max Heidigger (19.1 PPG) is the one key holdover. But unlike Wyoming, the Gauchos appear to be well-positioned to replace that departed talent. They had the best recruiting class in the Big West plus added a few key transfers, Devearl Ramsey from Nevada, JaQuori McLaughin from Oregon State and Ar'mond Davis from Alabama. Ramsey is a speedy point guard while the other two will definitely help the Gauchos' shooting from long-range.

Wyoming is off B2B 20+ win seasons. They also won 10 conference (Mt West) games LY, just the 2nd time in 16 years they'd done that. But as mentioned above, four of the top five scorers are gone and that's not good news for a team that didn't really shoot the ball all that well anyway. Even worse is the team's defensive outlook. Last year, the Cowboys ranked a horrendous 317th in scoring, allowing 78.7 PPG. That makes them a dicey proposition to lay points with, and they had a losing ATS record at home last year anyway. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

8* South Alabama (9:00 ET): Auburn will start the season ranked #11 as most consider them the third-best team in the SEC, behind Tennessee and, of course, Kentucky. The Tigers were a 4-seed in LY's NCAA Tournament, but bowed out in embarrassing fashion in the Round of 32, losing by 31 to Clemson. They were not a healthy team come Tourney time and a couple of key offseason departures have me a little "lukewarm" on them to start the year, even though they're still expected to score plenty of points here in 2018-19. But this is a big number to lay in the first game and I'll take the points.

South Alabama has a new HC, Richie Riley, who comes over from Nicholls State. Riley, a former assistant at both UAB and Clemson, led Nicholls State to the regular season championship in the Southland. After five straight losing seasons, the Jaguars should be significantly improved this season and be a player in the Sun Belt. They return the majority of LY's roster, including their top five scorers. Riley inherits a team that was in the top 15 in the country in forcing turnovers, doing so on 22.4% of opponents' possessions. The Jaguars will have to improve their shooting, both from three-point rang and the free throw line. They should do that. 

You may have forgotten that Auburn opened last season by winning 16 of its first 17 games. At one point, people were buying Bruce Pearl's team as a possible #1 seed (I did not). The key to their eventual downfall was a season-ending injury to Anfernee McLemore. He is back, but Mustapha Heron (transferred to St. John's) is not, nor is LY's leading rebounder Desean Murray (transferred to Western Kentucky). Also, Danjel Purify is ineligible for the season's first nine games due to the scandal that has engulfed the sport. Austin Wiley, like Purify, was ineligible LY due to the scandal. He had actually been cleared, but is now doubtful for the season opener due to a foot injury. I believe we're not going to see the Tigers score the way they did last season, at least initially. 8* South Alabama

10* Michigan (9:20 ET): There are two ways to view Michigan's path to Monday's National Championship Game. One is the fact that they've been extremely fortunate. In five games, they have yet to play a team seeded higher than six. They benefited from the fact that the top two seeds in their region, Xavier & North Carolina, failed to make it out of the first weekend. (Now, it's worth noting the Wolverines did later go on to beat the two teams that upset Xavier & UNC). They also won a game at the buzzer (over Houston). Then, in the Final Four, they were matched up w/ the ultimate Cnderella (an 11-seed at that), Loyola Chicago. A more positive/optimistic view of their path is that they've advanced this far despite - pretty clearly - NOT being at their best in four of the five games (Texas A&M, the exception), at least on the offensive end. They even covered for me (big time!) Saturday night vs. Loyola despite trailing much of the game. 

Villanova has had no difficulty in this Tournament. They've won all five games by double digits, by an average of 15.8 points per game. They are 5-0 ATS. They so thoroughly dominated Kansas, a 1-seed, that the game was over arguably less than seven minutes after it started (led 22-4). It was a double-digit game the rest of the way as the Wildcats would go onto record a Final Four record w/ 18 three-pointers made and they shot 55% overall from the field. It was the fourth time in the tourney that they topped 80 pts. Now it should be pointed out that Kansas was - by far - the weakest Final Four team in terms of defensive efficiency. Michigan, as noted in my GOY writeup, is the strongest (3rd in the country). If you've been following this incredible tournament run of mine, then you already know defensive efficiency is the key metric I've been leaning on most. The fact the Wolverines are so stout defensively, and getting points for the 1st time in the Tournament, makes them quite attractive to me. 

Michigan allows only 62.9 PPG for the season. They've held four tournament opponents, Texas A&M the exception ironically, to 63 pts or fewer. NCAA Tournament opponents are shooting just 38.7% against them overall. John Beilein's team is also 7-2 ATS as an underdog. Though the Tournament opposition has been easier than expected, it's not as if they haven't beaten any good teams this season. In the Big 10 Tournament, they beat Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive nights. There is next to zero chance that 'Nova will shoot as well here as they did Saturday. In fact, I feel pretty comfortable in calling for their worst offensive performance of the Tournament Monday night. At the same time, despite the issues of shooting in a dome, I believe Michigan is due for a far better offensive performance than what we saw Saturday. While 'Nova is going for its second title in three years, Michigan will be trying to erase an 0-3 SU record in Championship Games since '92 (two losses by Fab Five). The Wolverines aren't likely to be blown out (only two double digit losses all year), so I'll take the points. 10* Michigan

10* Michigan (6:09 ET): In the more unlikely of the two national semifinal matchups, we have #3 seed Michigan vs. #11 seed Loyola Chicago. The latter is the lowest seed ever to make a Final Four, matching the achievement set by former Missouri Valley member Wichita State back in 2013. Ironically, that was the same year that Michigan last made the Final Four! Both of these squads wound up w/ far easier than expected paths to San Antonio. Incredibly, the Wolverines did not have to defeat a team seeded higher than sixth to win their region! The two top seeds in their region, Xavier and North Carolina, failed to make it out of the first weekend. However, after their own close call vs. Houston in the second round (won at the buzzer), the Maize and Blue did defeat the teams (Texas A&M, Florida St) that ousted those top two seeds. Like Michigan, Loyola also saw the top two seeds in its region fall in the first weekend. They did beat Tennessee (a 3-seed) in Rd 2, but other than that, they also didn't beat a team seeded higher than sixth. Again, just like Michigan, they beat a 7-seed (Nevada) in the Sweet 16 and then a 9-seed (Kansas St) in the Elite 8. 

While we've established that Michigan and Loyola had similar paths to this point, that doesn't necessarily mean the two sides are equal. I don't think there's any disputing the Wolverines are better on paper (that's why they're favored). They also have the highest defensive efficiency rating of any of the Final Four teams and if you've been following this great Tournament run of mine, then you know that's the key metric I've been leaning on throughout. While Michigan shot astronomically well in the 99-72 win over Texas A&M (I had 'em there!), they've been below average offensively in the other three wins (scored 61, 64 and 58 pts). Here, I envision a scenario where they continue to play well defensively, while at the same time shooting the ball better. I don't think that's a unrealistic scenario. After all, they have allowed just 63.1 PPG over the course of the season and only two of their last 12 opponents have topped 64 points. Offensively, they are shooting at a 47% clip this season, but have been below that in three of four Tournament games. Even in the spacious Alamodome, I expect their three-point shooting to be better than it was against Houston and Florida St (combined 12 of 52). 

Loyola's first three tournament wins were by a combined four points, two of them won on a shot in the final seconds. Then, they blew out Kansas State 78-62 on a hot shooting night where they finished 57.4% from the field. It was the third straight game the Ramblers shot 50% or better. They are a ridiculous 56% from the field the L2 games. Needless to say that's not happening here. Not against a Michigan team that is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency. It's pretty clear to me that the Wolverines are not only the best team Loyola will have faced in this tournament, but all year as well. Obviously, the same is not true the other way around. In fact, I would rank both Houston and Texas A&M as better than Loyola. It's pretty crazy to me that the spread here is essentially identical to 'Nova-Kansas, despite the gap in talent here being far wider. Michigan has covered all five times this year it has faced an opponent that allows less than 64 PPG. 10* Michigan

10* Utah (7:00 ET): I'm a little surprised that Western Kentucky has been able to sum up the motivation here in the National Invitational Tournament. They were upset in the finals of their conference tournament (by Marshall), losing as six-point favorites. Now they were favored in the first NIT game, winning 79-62 vs. Boston College. But one might have expected it to end there. It obviously didn't though as they've upset USC and Oklahoma State, both on the road, to get here to MSG. They've now covered the spread comfortably in all three games, but here the line is a virtual non-factor (essentially a pick) against a Utah team that's desperately trying to salvage some dignity for the Pac 12 Conference. The Utes recorded an impressive upset of their own, beating St. Mary's, to get here. That was after home wins over Cal Davis and LSU. I'm taking the Utes to advance to Thursday's final. 

I had Utah in their second round win over LSU. Now homecourt advantage was a big reason for that, but still, homecourt alone wasn't enough to justify how decisive that win ended up being. The Utes won 95-71 as they led 30-11 after the 1st quarter (yes, we're playing quarters, not halves, in this year's NIT). They shot 58% from the field overall, made 14 three-pointers and all five starters scored in double figures. The game was never close as the Utes led by as many as 27 at one point. Impressive as that win was, going to St. Mary's and winning 67-58 may have been just as - if not more - impressive. Yes, the final score is a little misleading in the sense that the game did go into overtime. But look at how few points St. Mary's scored in 45 minutes of action. The Utes became the only team besides Gonzaga to win at SMU this season. The Gaels (previously 18-1 SU at home) were averaging close to 80 PPG at home for the season. 

Now, Utah's edge defensively won't be as pronounced here as it was each of the L3 games. Plus, they'll be facing a Western Kentucky team that has scored at least 79 pts in all three NIT games, including 92 in the upset of Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals. The Hilltoppers have shot 52.5% or better in all three NIT games as well, but I'll call for that number to drop - rather significantly - here as Utah is allowing its opponents to shoot just 41.7% from the floor for the season. Over the last five games, Utah opponents are shooting below 40% from the field. I realize WKU has the better record away from home, but note Utah is the only team left in the NIT field that was seeded higher than fourth (#2). I think this line is off and the Utes deserved to be favored here. 10* Utah

10* Duke (5:05 ET): Compared to the wild "left-side" of the bracket, the right side has been downright "chalky." Almost every year, it seems as if we get one 1 vs. 2 (seed) matchup and this year it comes from the Midwest Region in the form of Kansas vs. Duke. However, it's rather interesting that the 2-seed comes in favored. Doesn't surprise me though as Duke has been the better team all year. They also have a drastically better defensive efficiency rating than Kansas, which for me, is the kicker here. If you've been following this incredible Tournament run of mine, then you know defensive efficiency is the key metric I've been harping on the whole time. I expected the Blue Devils to be favored in this spot and will lay the points.  

Duke is the only team in the field to be ranked top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, making them a great value pick to win the whole Tournament. It's rare that a Coach K team actually has value (public usually over the Dookies), but this year is the exception. I saw many brackets that had them failing to get by Michigan State in the Sweet 16. Well, they caught a "break" in that Sparty was upset in Rd 2, by Syracuse, a conference rival that Duke was familiar with, key because the zone is something they're accustomed to seeing. Of course, it's been much ballyhooed that the Blue Devils are also playing zone and the move has worked to perfection as the last 11 games have seen them allow an average of just 61.4 PPG. Only once during that stretch have they allowed over 70 and that was to rival UNC (who scored 74).

Kansas bettors have suffered back to back brutal beats. In the Round of 32 (vs. Seton Hall), a last-second "meaningless" three-pointer went in, putting the final score at 83-79 (Jayhawks were 4.5-pt favorites). Then, in the Sweet 16, they led Clemson by as many as 20 in the second half only to win (again) by only four points. They were favored by five to beat the Tigers. That's too bad b/c even as a dog I'm not about to endorse Bill Self's team considering they have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the Elite Eight (46th). Duke is 9th, a huge gap, not to mention also 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency. Self has had his issues in the Elite 8 before as his record is only 2-5 straight up, including a loss to Oregon (as a favorite) last year. Meanwhile, no coach has more Elite 8 appearances than Coach K (since Tournament field was expanded). Duke did lose to Kansas (by two) last season, even with the Jayhawks making only 2 of 17 three-point attempts. But KU still finished above 50% overall from the field, which won't happen here as I simply cannot stress how improved the Blue Devils have been on the defensive end this season. 10* Duke

8* Texas Tech (2:20 ET): Villanova is 3-0 ATS in this tournament, basically the lone exception of a top team playing above the oddsmakers' expectations. In the second round, I stepped out against them once and paid the price for doing so as they whipped Alabama 81-58 as an 811.5-pt favorite. (Note: I haven't lost a Tournament play since!). That came after an easy win against overmatched Radford (who was playing for a second time in three days), 87-61 as 22.5-pt chalk and before a Sweet 16 win over West Virginia, 90-78 as 5.5-pt chalk. But now comes - easily - their toughest test of the Tournament in the form of Texas Tech. This will be the best defensive team the Wildcats will have seen all season, so you know what that means ... take the points. 

Texas Tech was a nice winner for me in the Sweet 16 as they "upset" Purdue (were 1.5-pt dogs) 78-65. All tournament long, I've been harping on teams' defensive efficiency rating and it's obviously treated me quite well. In this department, the Red Raiders now rank 3rd nationally. They moved ahead of Michigan thanks to the performance against Purdue. That means the Red Raiders are now - at least temporarily - the top defensive team left in the field. Purdue isn't held under 70 pts often (finished 0-5 when it happens), but Chris Beard's team was able to do it. Sure, you can cite the Boilermakers not having leading scorer Isaac Haas, but I don't think he alone could have changed Friday night's result. Texas Tech is holding opponents to 64.6 PPG on 40.4% shooting for the season.

The Red Raiders also have Keenan Evans. In my analysis for the Purdue game, I mentioned that a late season Evans' injury was the reason for a Texas Tech swoon. He was not at full strength for four games and the team lost all four. But now, Evans is back and playing at an All-American level. He had only 16 pts vs. Purdue (still a team-high), but is averaging over 20 PPG for the Tourney. Usually, Villanova's Jalen Brunson is the best guard on the floor, but that may not be the case here. Not sure I understand how Texas Tech comes in as a bigger underdog here than WVU did for the Sweet 16. Going back to that Alabama game, 'Nova was held below 40% shooting by a top 20 defense. Texas Tech is top four. Note that the underdog here has only one loss all season by more than 10 points. 8* Texas Tech

8* Michigan (8:45 ET): The third seeded Wolverines have caught numerous breaks during the course of this Tournament run. Poor shooting nearly cost them in each of the first two rounds, but they were able to overcome a slow start vs. overmatched Montana and then of course hit the buzzer beater to get by Houston. I thought the Maize and Blue came in drastically undervalued in their Sweet 16 matchup w/ Texas A&M, thus I jumped on them and boy was I richly rewarded as they absolutely thrashed the Aggies, 99-72, thanks to a spectacular shooting display (61.9 FG% overall), most notably from three-point range where they went 14 of 24. Before the Tournament started, I had Michigan making the Final Four and thanks to a far more favorable Elite 8 matchup than I envisioned, I'm sticking w/ that. Lay the points. 

Now, if you're a regular client of mine, you may recall that I had A&M in the Rd of 32 against North Carolina. One of the major reasons I then chose to fade the Aggies was that I didn't think there was any way they could come close to matching that performance against Michigan. So why am I not taking a similar tact w/ the Wolverines after Thursday night's incredible showing? Well, for starters, how about their defense. They are the top team left in the field when it comes to defensive efficiency (my key metric!) at #3 in the country. I'm confident in what I've seen from them defensively in this Tournament can/will be maintained here, thus negating any potential offensive regression from the Sweet 16. Then, there's the Elite 8 opponent. I had expected Gonzaga to be here (even before the Tournament started), which would have meant a significant disadvantage in fan support for the Wolverines. Instead, it's a Florida State team that doesn't play defense as well as Gonzaga or certainly Michigan. 

Now we should give some credit to the Seminoles. They came into this Tournament likely undervalued due to an 0-7-1 ATS run. But they dominated Missouri and have pulled B2B upsets of Xavier and Gonzaga. I had them against top seeded Xavier, but that was a top seed in name-only. In fact, I would have had any of the other top four seeds in this region (UNC, Michigan, Gonzaga) favored against the Musketeers. Nor do I think Florida State is as good as the last two teams Michigan has beaten, Houston and Texas A&M. This really is a dream draw for the Elite 8 for Michigan, who will certainly shoot better against the Seminoles than either Missouri or Gonzaga did. Of the 12 remaining teams in the Tournament, Florida State is 11th in defensive efficiency. Again, Michigan is #1. 8* Michigan

10* Kansas State (6:05 ET): Perhaps it has something to do w/ their #1 fan Sister Jean, but Loyola Chicago has gotten to the Elite 8 by winning their three games by a total of four points. That's pretty remarkable. I've been on the winning end of two of those games, the Rd 1 win over Miami and the Sweet 16 victory over Nevada. Similarly, I was on Kansas State in the Sweet 16 and they rewarded me w/ a huge win, beating favored Kentucky 61-58. Now both teams were more dominant than their respective Sweet 16 scores show as they each led virtually throughout. Now we are left w/ an unprecedented 9 vs. 11 (seed) matchup in the Elite 8. As has been the case throughout this Tournament, I'll side w/ the team that has the better defensive efficiency rating, especially considering the price here. 

Kansas State beat Kentucky despite shooting only 35% from the field. They were -15 in free throw attempts (a disadvantage somewhat negated by Kentucky making on 23 of 37) and were outrebounded 38-29. Yet, they still be a superior team and basically led throughout. This is owed to defense, which I can't harp on enough in this Tournament. They held UK to 38.1% shooting including 3 of 12 from three-point range. Kentucky is certainly a better team than Loyola Chicago or any team the Ramblers have beaten to this point. Yes, there was a little "divine intervention" for K-State in this Tourney as they became the first team in history to get to face a 16-seed (UMBC) in the 2nd round. But there was nothing fluky about the win over Kentucky, nor the 1st round win over Creighton for that matter. The Wildcats have yet to allow 60 pts in any game this Tournament and are now ranked #14 in the country in defensive efficiency. Remember they've done this despite basically getting zero contribution from leading scorer Dean Wade!  

I had a lot of respect for Loyola coming into this Big Dance, hence me playing them twice so far. But they got a fortunate Sweet 16 draw w/ Nevada, a team that had trailed at halftime in each of its previous five games, including three by double digits. After a slow start vs. the Wolfpack (initially trailed 20-8), the Ramblers took their own 2H double digit lead. Things then got close at the end (always does w/ Nevada!) despite the Ramblers shooting 55% for the game and making their first 12 field goal attempts after halftime. It was their second straight game shooting at least 50%, something that I don't see happening here given KSU's defensive prowess. Sister Jean or not, Loyola is very lucky to have advanced thus far (three wins by four total points!) while Kansas State has largely been in control of all three of its tourney contests thus far. 10* Kansas State

8* Texas Tech (9:57 ET): I have yet to play on/against either of these teams in the NCAA Tournament. Texas Tech has faced two tough defensive-minded teams thus far, Stephen F Austin and Florida and beat back both. Purdue was a somewhat popular choice to be upset in the last round as they had lost their best player, Isaac Haas, to injury in the 1st round win of CS Fullerton. But the Boilermakers played well w/o Haas and ousted pesky Butler, 76-73 (did not cover as they were favored by four). Oddsmakers are still adjusting in light of the Haas injury, but not by enough here in my estimation. Texas Tech is the significantly better defensive team in this matchup (#4 in efficiency vs. Purdue's #29) and has its best player (Keenan Evans) as close to full strength as he's been in a while. I like the Red Raiders. 

Evans has led the way for TT, averaging 22.5 PPG in the Tournament. Coming into the Big Dance, the Red Raiders had gone just 2-5 SU in their L7 games w/ virtually every game being close. Both wins were by four points and three losses were by three points or less. The key is that Evans clearly was not at full strength in four of those games due to a toe injury and the team went 0-4 SU. The one game he missed the entirety of was at West Virginia and coincidentally, that was the worst loss of the bunch. But now Evans is back to looking like an All-American and coupled w/ the Red Raiders' outstanding defense, that means trouble for Purdue. Texas Tech forced nine first half turnovers vs. SFA and contested all but two of Florida's three-point attempts.

Purdue being w/o Haas is a major loss. I thought it was being overrated vs. Butler, but Texas Tech is a tougher opponent and the Boilermakers will absolutely miss him here. Don't look for them to shoot 50% from the field here like they did vs. Butler or 11 of 24 from three-point range. Take Carsen Edwards out of the equation and the rest of the team was 22 of 35 from the field overall and 8 of 14 from three-point range. Unsustainable! With no Haas and a supporting cast likely to regress facing a team that is holding opponents to 40.3% shooting for the year, look for the Boilermakers to have a rough offensive night in the Sweet 16. 8* Texas Tech

10* Clemson (7:07 ET): This is our latest example of an underdog having a significantly higher defensive efficiency rating than its favored counterpart. Taking the points in these situations has proven fruitful for me in this Tournament, most notably last Sunday where Texas A&M, Clemson and Florida State all won their games outright. Two #1 seeds didn't even make it to the Sweet 16, including the #1 team overall, Virginia. Of the four 1-seeds, I had Kansas rated third coming in and they are definitely more vulnerable compared to the other still remaining, that being Villanova. Clemson is up to #7 in the country in defensive efficiency (Kansas only #45) after their absolute thrashing (won 84-53!) of Auburn in the Rd of 32. I'll take the points here.

The "no respect" card is nothing new to these Tigers, who came into the Tournament w/o Dante Grantham. Much was made of their pedestrian record since the injury, but as I said in my analysis of the Auburn game, "perhaps that had more to do w/ the rugged ACC and less w/ the Tigers themselves." As expected, they overwhelmed Auburn w/ their defense, holding them to 53 points on a palty 25.8% shooting. It was a 43-19 game at halftime! But the thing w/ Clemson is they're not just defense. They put up 84 pts on Auburn and that was after shooting better than 55% in Rd. 1 against a New Mexico State team that was ranked inside the top 20 in defensive efficiency. Something else I noted in the analysis for the Auburn game is that Clemson has really feasted on non-conference competition this year. They're now 13-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and have shot 55% or better four times. They are 46 for 80 on two-point attempts in this Tournament. 

Kansas suffered a brutal beat in its Rd of 32 game vs. Seton Hall. They gave up a three-pointer w/ no time remaining, which allowed the Pirates to get inside the number. Normally, I might then consider a reprieve the next time out, but I don't like this matchup for the Jayhawks - at all. With a less than 100% Udoka Azubuike, they are quite vulnerable on the inside as we saw when Seton Hall's Angel Delgado turned in a 24-23 (pts-rebounds) performance. HC Bill Self wants to play a four-guard lineup, but I don't think that works here. The Jayhawks are shooting 40% from three-point range this season, but good luck getting to that number here. The likelihood of an upset here is high. 10* Clemson

8* Kansas State (9:37 ET): Well, the deck certainly appears cleared for Kentucky to make another Final Four run, doesn't it? If the Wildcats were to make it to San Antonio, the highest seeded opponent they will have beaten is a 7, and that's only if Nevada wins its Sweet 16 game vs. #11 Loyola Chicago. Already it's been a fairly "easy" ride to the Sweet 16. After getting by pesky 12-seed Davidson in the Rd of 64, UK got to face 13-seed Buffalo (who had upset #4 seed Arizona) in the Rd of 32. The Wildcats were my 10* Game of the Week selection in that one and they rolled the underdog Bulls, 95-75, as an almost outrageously priced 5.5-pt favorite. Here's where I take advantage of public perception though and grab some value. This battle w/ Kansas State is a lot more even than people think. Not saying the Wildcats win this one outright, but I will take the points. 

Now Kansas State was another beneficiary of a big upset to get here. In their case, they were the 1st team to take on a 16-seed in the Rd of 32. That was thanks to UMBC's historical upset of overall top seed Virginia. It was a very ugly affair w/ UMBC, who the players couldn't possibly have been ready to play. KSU won 50-43 by holding UMBC to 29.8% shooting for the game. They led at halftime despite going 0 for 8 on three-point attempts and being w/o leading scorer Dean Wade (who could come off the bench in this game). The Wildcats were also w/o Wade when they beat Creighton in Round 1, 69-59. Incredibly, Creighton and UMBC were held to a combined 32.1%. Tough to lose when you're playing defense like that. 

Statistically, these teams are a lot more even than you might think. Kansas State is slightly ahead in defensive efficiency and we've seen that be huge for underdogs thus far in this tournament (see A&M over UNC). Plus, the line here is basically the same as it was for Kentucky-Buffalo. Now obviously, there's some influence based on what the Wildcats did in that last game, to a team that had just beaten Arizona by 21 pts. But let's not be too quick to forget that Kentucky finished 6th in the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They have shot 50% or better in four consecutive games, but I do not see that happening here as this game will be a struggle. At 9-1 ATS L10 and heavily favored to get to the Final Four (wasn't the case last week), UK is overvalued. 8* Kansas State

8* Michigan (7:27 ET): Texas A&M has treated me incredibly well in this Tournament as I've cashed in on both of their games. First was a spot as a small favorite against a Providence team I simply didn't have a ton of respect for. After a slow start to that game, the Aggies roared back by controlling the boards and playing suffocating defense (won 73-69). It was a similar story in Rd 2 when I took them plus 6.5 points against North Carolina, a game they trailed early, but then quickly took control of and never looked back. In fact, this was a much bigger beatdown as they were up 14 at half and kept pouring it on after that, leading by 20+ for most of the second half. This is an athletic team that dominated their first two opponents on the inside, just like I thought they would. Problem is, I feel they'll meet their match in Michigan. Lay the points. 

The set up here is eerily reminiscent of that Providence-A&M matchup I spoke of at the outstet. Only this time the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot." Whereas A&M was the short favorite lacking in respect vs. Providence, here we have a situation where the majority of bettors are ON them as a short dog. Yes, they still have their "fearsome twosome" of Davis and Williams, who combined to go 10 for 12 from the floor against UNC. But what Michigan has that UNC didn't is outside shooters. The Tar Heels basically shot themselves out of that second round matchup, going 6 for 31 from three-point range. Trust me when I say that we won't be seeing that poor shooting here from the Wolverines. They shoot better than 36% for the year from 3-pt range. 

Remember; Michigan hasn't lost since February 6th. They bring an 11-game win streak into the Sweet 16 and it's actually been less about their shooters and more about defense. Did you know the Wolverines rank 3rd in the country in defensive efficiency? Only twice during the current win streak have they allowed more than 66 pts. They've held the last five opponents to 59.6 PPG on 38.6% shooting. Yes, it took a last second miracle to beat Houston in the Rd of 32. But let me let you in on a little secret - Houston is better than Texas A&M. Michigan hasn't even got much yet from leading scorer Moritz Wagner (just 17 pts in two games) in this tournament. No way A&M plays as well here as they did vs. North Carolina. Michigan is being underappreciated in this spot. 8* Michigan 

10* Loyola Chicago (7:07 ET): One of the most unlikely Sweet 16 matchups in recent memory (or ever?) takes place Thursday night in Atlanta as 7-seed Nevada meets 11-seed Loyola Chicago. As you might expect, it has not been a dominant path here for either side. Loyola, champions of the Missouri Valley, have won both games by two points or less (by nearly identical scores) and needed last second shots each time. Nevada, an at-large team that won the Mt West reg season crown (upset in conf tourney), has taken an even dicier path. They've trailed by double digits in the second half of both games - including down 22 to Cincinnati on Sunday. By rule, one of these teams is actually going to end up in the Elite 8 and I'm going to side w/ the one that has the clear edge in defensive efficiency, the metric I've been harping on all tournament long.

Defensive efficiency is the metric I leaned on heavily when it came to key second round calls such as Clemson over Auburn, Florida State over Xavier and Texas A&M over North Carolina. Now, going by that standard, Nevada should have been eliminated back in the Rd of 64. They've beaten Texas (#12 in def efficiency) and Cincinnati (#2). I laid off the Nevada-Cincinnati game though (spread too high) and it's obviously a good thing I did. But it bears mentioning that the Wolfpack - by a wide margin - have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team still left in the Tournament, They are 109th in that department. The next worst team is Florida State at #55. Six of the Sweet 16 teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency and 12 are in the top 30. Loyola Chicago, for the record, is 27th. In the regular season, they held opponents to 33.2% shooting from three-point range and turned them over only roughly 20% of all possessions. 

The Ramblers come into the Sweet 16 having won 19 of 20 games (only loss was by 2 at Bradley). I played them against Miami in the Rd of 64 and remember what I said in my analysis. This team beat Florida earlier in the year. They're not all defense either. They also rank third in the country in field goal percentage made (50.6%). They've also connected on 39% of their three-point attempts in this Tournament. Yes, both wins were close, but they never trailed in the manner Nevada did in both of its games. The Wolfpack looked like an inferior side against Texas (needed OT) and Cincy before miracle comebacks. Trailing by double digits in B2B games is not a sign of an Elite 8 team. 10* Loyola Chicago

8* Louisville (9:00 ET): You can't underestimate the importance of homecourt advantage in the NIT. Last night, I rode w/ Utah, who demolished LSU in Salt Lake City. That being said, three of the top four seeds in this tournament are OUT, one of them Baylor at the hands of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are back in action tonight, again on the road, in quarterfinal action at Louisville. Needless to say, this has been quite the tumultuous season on the L'ville campus, starting w/ Rick Pitino resigning in disgrace. But the Cardinals' players can still salvage some semblance of pride by winning the NIT and I have them advancing to the Final Four next week in MSG w/ a comfortable win tonight. Lay the points. 

Louisville, the #2 seed in Region 2, has won both of its NIT games by double digits. Their first victim was Northern Kentucky (reg season champs out of the Horizon League), 66-58 as 7.5-pt chalk. Then came an 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee (reg season champs in C-USA) as 4.5-pt chalk. Now you can make the arguement that both of those teams were battling some disappointment over getting bounced from their respective conference tourneys. But Middle Tennessee did win still win its first NIT game and I might argue that they are a better team that Mississippi State is. Something to note is Louisville easily beat Middle Tennessee despite leading scorer Deng Adel not scoring a single point - with just one shot attempt - in 21 minutes of action. The team still went on to make 11 three-pointers. 

Mississippi State beat Baylor on a last second three-pointer Sunday, after blowing all of a 14-pt halftime advantage. Three-point shooting was the real difference in that game as the Bulldogs went 13 of 22 from behind the arc while the Bears were a paltry 3 of 12. Remember though; the three-point line has been extended for NIT play (experimentation!). I'd be a little leery of MSU being able to outshoot a second straight opponent so decisively again, especially in another road game. That win over Baylor was only the third "true" road win of the season for the Bulldogs. Thus I can't see them turning the same trick twice in a three-day span. Furthermore, Louisville has covered five of its last six as a home favorite of -3.5 to -6. 8* Louisville

8* Utah (9:00 ET): The Pac 12 had a very brief and disastrous run in the NCAA Tournament (all three teams lost 1st game, two of them in the "first four"), but the conference is well represented here in the NIT w/ five teams, all of whom WON their first round games! Now Oregon did bow out of the tournament yday, but that still leaves four schools, all of whom are in action tonight. Three are the higher seed and thus host their respective quarterfinal matchups, one of them being Utah. The Utes won their 1st rd NIT matchup, 69-59 over Cal Davis, but failed to cover the 12-pt spread. LSU won and covered its 1st round matchup, beating in-state "rival" LA Lafayette 84-76 as 3.5-pt chalk. 

The homecourt advantage is something you really have to take into account when handicapping the NIT. Now, two home teams did lose quarterfinal matchups over the weekend. But I don't see that happening here as the Utes are 14-3 SU in Salt Lake City, outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game. Visiting teams shoot only 38.8% here. In fact, going back to the Pac 12 Tournament, the Utes have held three straight opponents below 40% shooting. Only one of their previous 10 opponents have shot better than 43.1% from the field. I've been stressing the importance of high-level defensive play in my NCAA Tournament picks, which have obviously been quite successful, and the same applies here to the NIT. 

Interestingly, Utah's 1st round opponent (Cal Davis) is a better defensive team than LSU. That may explain why that game was a little closer than expected. There are also the rule changes to this year's NIT as the teams are playing four 10-minute quarters as opposed to two 20-minute halves. The three-point line has also been extended and the free throw lane widened. Utes HC Larry Krystowiak was also ejected from the game vs. UC Davis as his team found itself down by as many as 11 at one point. But then they held the Aggies to 1 of 11 shooting down the stretch. LSU simply overwhelmed Louisiana in its first round game Wednesday, shooting 52% from the floor, but that won't happen again tonight. The Tigers have just three "true" road wins all season, the last one coming in early January. When it comes to defending a shorter three-point distance, Utah already had a clear advantage, thus I'll lay the short number w/o hesitation. 8* Utah

8* West Virginia (9:40 ET): I smell a rout cooking here as West Virginia should roll 13-seed Marshall. Granted, I predicted that Marshall would get blown out in its first round game against Wichita State, and not only did that not happen, the Thundering Herd obviously pulled the outright upset, 81-75 as 13.5-pt dogs. Tip your cap to Dan D'Antoni's (brother of Mike) squad though as they looked every bit the better team down the stretch. But note I made a big mistake in handicapping that game as Wichita State came in outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. All tournament long, I've been harping on that metric and for one game I downplayed it and got burned. Maybe I overlooked it because Marshall had never won a NCAA Tourney game before in its history or maybe it was because they only rank 126th themselves in that department. But now let's see how they fare against Bob Huggins and "Press Virginia." My call is that this game won't go well for the underdog. Lay the points. 

This is obviously a battle of in-state schools, so spirits should be high. But emotion alone will not be nearly enough for the Thundering Herd to pull another upset here. I'm concerned that leading scorer Jon Elmore played the full 40 minutes vs. Wichita State and now has to go up against perhaps the most frenetic pressure defense in the land (w/ just one day in between games). Also, Marshall was down seven midway through the second half on Friday and appeared headed for an exit. That is when Elmore got hot though and Wichita State simply fell apart. That won't happen w/ WVU though as the Mountaineers come into this game ranked 43rd in defensive efficiency. That's far lower than usual for a Huggins-coached team, but still much better than Wichita State. 

Odds are not in Marshall's favor here. Teams seeded 13 or lower are just 9-47 SU in the Round of 32, including Buffalo's loss to Kentucky yday (that was my *10* Game of the Week!). We know West Virginia is going to press and while Marshall was careful w/ the basketball vs. Wichita State, this is a whole different animal that they are facing here. WVU rolled Murray State in Round 1, 85-68, despite making only four three-pointers the entire game. Murray State's leading scorer Jonathan Stark went 1 for 12 from the field, an ominous sign here for Elmore. Marshall simply isn't good enough defensively to hang w/ WVU, let alone come close to pulling another upset. 8* West Virginia

8* Florida State (8:40 ET): There has yet to be any real "upset" in the West region where the #3 seed Michigan and #4 seed Gonzaga have already moved onto the Sweet 16. The lone instance of a lower-seeded team even winning a game in this region came late Friday night w/ Florida State dismantling Missouri, but even then, the ninth-seeded Seminoles went off as the betting favorite in that particular matchup. Now the Noles are in an underdog role against top seed Xavier and I see the signs of a "legit" upset being pulled here. Yes, Virginia suffered the all-time embarrassing upset on Friday, but the Musketeers came into the tournament - easily - the weakest 1-seed on paper. I don't even have them rated as a top 10 team and taking the points here seems like a no-brainer to me. 

Whomever wins this game will very likely be the lowest rated team in defensive efficiency going into the Sweet 16. The only three teams that are lower than these two in that department are: Nevada, Marshall and UMBC, all heavy underdogs to go home after Sunday. Xavier only being #60 in the country in defensive efficiency makes them appear particularly vulnerable as a #1 seed and especially laying points to a comparable foe in this area. Now the Musketeers did score over 100 pts and win by 19 on Friday over 16-seed Texas Southern. But they were also facing a team that was playing for the second time in three nights and probably just "happy to be there." This will be a big step up in class and I'm concerned this team leans far too heavily on leading scorer Trevon Blueitt. It's unlikely they get a career-high 24 pts from Kerem Kanter again like they did vs. TX Southern. I also don't see the team shooting 11 of 24 from three-point range again as they did Friday night. 

Florida State now appears likely to be w/o their leading scorer Terance Mann here after he strained his groin in the win over Missouri. That's a shame, but not something the Seminoles can't overcome. I say this because they got 42 of their 67 points from the bench in the highly impressive Round of 64 triumph. In what was supposed to be an "even battle," the Noles dominated Mizzou from the start, taking a 22-point lead into halftime and allowing just 32.7% shooting for the game. This is the ACC's third highest scoring team (81.8 PPG) and they've got legit revenge for an upset suffered in LY's Tournament when they, as a 7.5-pt favorite, fell to Xavier 91-66. Look for a much closer game this time around. 8* Florida State

8* Clemson (7:10 ET): We have a seemingly "even" 4 vs. 5 matchup here w/ the oddsmakers giving a slight lean to Auburn. However, after defeating a tough 12-seed New Mexico State (a very trendy upset pick that did NOT come to fruition) in Round 1, I believe Clemson is set to advance here. The Tigers are top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and if you've been following my tournament selections, then you already know that's the metric I lean on the most. Note: Auburn isn't too shabby in that department either, ranking 32nd. But that's not top 10 and it's not as if "those Tigers" were overly impressive in the Rd of 64 as they beat Charleston by only four points on what was a bad shooting night. Just like on the football field, look for defense to be the difference maker in a Clemson vs. Auburn matchup. 

Conversely, Clemson shot the ball very well in a 79-68 victory Friday night. They were a blistering 55.9 percent from the field and that came against a New Mexico State team that was also top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Tigers' guards routinely beat the NMSU pressure and that resulted in a double digit lead by halftime. While only 8-6 SU since the loss of Dante Grantham, perhaps that had more to do w/ the rugged ACC and less w/ the Tigers themselves. They have really feasted on non-conference competition this year, going 12-1 SU (8-2 ATS) and shot 55% or better four times. In ACC play, they topped 50% only one time. But Shelton Mitchell appears ready to "pick up the slack" as he scored a season-high 23 points on Friday.

Auburn has also had to cope w/ a key injury as they lost Anfernee McLemore midway through the season. Like Clemson w/o Grantham, they initially struggled. I worry about a team that is somewhat limited offensively to begin with (188th on 2-pt field goals for the season) now facing a much better defensive team in the second round. While they did hit multiple contested three-point shots late, Auburn was only 5 of 21 from behind the arc vs. Charleston, plus they benefited from having the wrong FT shooter (i.e. a much better one) sent to the line at a critical moment. Clemson also isn't going to turn the ball over as much as Charleston did. 8* Clemson

10* Texas A&M (5:15 ET): There has yet to be any real "upset" in the West region where the #3 seed Michigan and #4 seed Gonzaga have already moved onto the Sweet 16. The lone instance of a lower-seeded team even winning a game in this region came late Friday night w/ Florida State dismantling Missouri, but even then, the ninth-seeded Seminoles went off as the betting favorite in that particular matchup. The top two seeds in the region are back in action today and in the case of the #2 vs. #7 seed matchup, I do see plenty of upset potential as North Carolina takes on Texas A&M. The Aggies have the higher defensive efficiency rating coming into this one, as they rank 12th while UNC is just 35th. Take the points. 

A&M got off to a somewhat rough start in its first round game vs. Providence (didn't score first field goal until 7:17 into the game!), yet was able to quickly recover and take the lead by halftime. They would go up by as many as 11 pts in the 2H, including having that lead w/ just 31 seconds remaining. Providence made a couple three-pointers in the closing seconds to make the final score a bit closer, but make no mistake, the Aggies were the better team that day (I had 'em!). A big reason I had the Aggies Friday afternoon was their size advantage over the Friars. They'll enjoy a similar advantage here against the Tar Heels, believe it or not. I wasn't kidding in my analysis for Friday when I said A&M had one of the most talented frontcourts in the country. The tallest player in UNC's starting lineup is 6'8". A&M has two, often three, players taller than that on the floor at any given time. 

North Carolina beat Lipscomb 84-66 on Friday, but only outscored the Bisons by single digits in each half. It will obviously be a big step up in class here after facing a 15-seed, and one that had NEVER played a NCAA Tournament game to boot. A&M dominated Providence on the glass (outrebounded them 44-26) w/ the talented duo of Robert Williams and Tyler Davis combining for 29 of those rebounds. North Carolina is going to have problems w/ those two, mark my words. North Carolina is balanced, but unlikely to get 18 points against from Kenny Williams like they did vs. Lipscomb. With an edge in height and on defense, Texas A&M is more than capable of pulling this upset. Remember they were ranked very high at one point and beat West Virginia early in the season by 23 pts. North Carolina struggles to defend the three-point line. 10* Texas A&M

10* Kentucky (5:15 ET): Well, it sure does seem if the Wildcats' half of the bracket "opened up," hasn't it? Gone is top seed Virginia thanks to a historic upset suffered last night at the hands of UMBC (first time a 16 seed ever beat a 1 seed). But prior to the Hoos bowing out in the most infamous of fashion, Coach Cal and company had to be feeling pretty good about itself. That's because the 4-seed, Arizona, also lost. So now UK is looking at a scenario where they'll only have to beat a 13-seed, then the winner of Kansas State-UMBC (9 vs. 16 seed), to get to the Elite 8. Saturday evening sees them taking on the team that took out Arizona, that being Buffalo, champions out of the MAC. I had Kentucky beating Arizona in this spot anyway and we're getting a great line here due to all the hype surrounding "Cinderella." Lay the points. 

What UMBC did to Virginia last night was an all-time shocker, but let's not forget that Buffalo beat Arizona by 21 points and looked every bit the better team Thursday night. The Bulls basically led the entire way (never trailed by more than three) and totally overwhelmed their favored counterparts w/ quickness from the guard position. Buffalo shot almost 55% for the game, taking advantage of an Arizona team that quite frankly wasn't great on the defensive end to begin with. The three-point line was also a deciding factor as Buffalo made 15 of 30 from behind the arc while Arizona went an ugly 2 of 18. But now the question comes - can Buffalo do it again? Kentucky is a lot better defensively compared to Arizona, so obviously my thinking here is a great big "no." 

Kentucky appears to be "peaking" right now as they come into the Rd of 32 having won eight of nine - both straight up and against the spread. A 5-seed, they were actually a popular pick to be upset in the first round by Davidson (Note: no 12 seeds won this year). But they overwhelmed the Wildcats, winning 78-73 in a game that wasn't necessarily as close as the final score indicates. Kentucky never trailed after the opening minutes and was up double digits going into the final minute (not to mention, at halftime as well). Davidson made a meaningless three in the closing seconds to make it a five-point game. Interesting is that Kentucky was able to win the game despite not making a single three-pointer. So while Buffalo is likely "due" to cool off here, UK is likely to be more proficient from deep. They dominated Davidson in the paint, outscoring them 36-20, and I see the same thing happening here. 10* Kentucky

8* Alabama (12:10 ET): To most, I think Bama's 86-83 "upset" of Va Tech in Round 1 won't register as anything special. But I came away wholly impressed w/ the Crimson Tide, who were able to win a game despite allowing the Hokies to score 83 pts on 55.6% shooting. Defense is typically this team's calling card, but on Thursday night it was the offense leading the charge. The Tide shot a ridiculous 60% from the field en route to their highest scoring effort since November. However, I'm still going to lean on the fact that this team is in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency. They rank higher than Villanova in that area, key because I think this could end up being the ONLY time in this entire tournament that the team w/ the better defensive efficiency is getting double digits. Take the points.

Villanova obviously looked impressive Thursday night. They jumped out to a 31-8 (!) lead and it was basically over at that point. With 11:45 left in the game, and up 69-37, the top-seeded Wildcats were shooting a ridiculous 75% overall and 60% from three-point range! As impressive as all that is, remember they were facing a 16-seed (Radford) that not only had zero chance of winning, but was also playing for a second time in three nights. There's a huge jump from 16 seeds to every other team in the Tournament. So you almost have to disregard the result in a sense. (Note: That preceding sentence was obviously written before UMBC's historic upset over Virginia!). Now Villanova is obviously still very good, but I come back to the fact they rank slightly lower than 'Bama in defensive efficiency. All that win over Radford did is ensure we'd have a really nice number to grab w/ their second rd opponent.

I really came away impressed w/ the athletes on Alabama. None moreso than freshman Collin Sexton, who scored 21 of his game-high 24 pts in the second half, making six of 10 field goal attempts and 10 of 14 free throws. Might he be the best player on the floor Saturday afternoon? That's certainly something to consider. There's also Sexton's fellow freshman in the backcourt, James Petty. As a team, Alabama made 67 percent of its two-point attempts for the game. This team can both score and defend and is a huge step up from Villanova's 1st round opponent. They are certainly more than capable of keeping this game within single digits, if not pull the outright upset. 8* Alabama

8* Syracuse (9:40 ET): Similar to Nevada-Texas, this is a 1st round matchup where one side will enjoy a massive edge in defensive efficiency (I keep harping on this for good reason!). It was far from the most "aesthetically pleasing" victory for Syracuse in the "First Four," but their defense shined in a 60-56 victory where they held the Sun Devils to 40.4% shooting. Their next opponent, TCU, profiles very similar to Arizona State in that they have a rather dramatic split in offensive vs. defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are 8th in offensive efficiency, but only 105th on the defensive end. (Arizona State, for the record, was 19th and 125th). Syracuse is now 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency and that will again be the difference here. Take the points. 

That Syracuse defense held ASU to its lowest point total of the season - easily -as the previous low was 64. It was only the third time all year that the Sun Devils were held below 70 points. With the "vaunted" 2-3 matchup zone, I figure the Orange will give TCU similar problems. Sophomore PG Jaylen Fisher was lost for the season, remember, and the Horned Frogs are just 6-6 SU overall the L12 games w/o him. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs were just 3-10 SU vs. NCAA Tourney teams this season, including two losses each to Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas Tech. They were "one and done" in the Big 12 Tournament, getting upset by Kansas State, 66-64 as three-point favorites. In its previous two losses before that, the Frogs shot just 41 percent from the field. 

Syracuse's zone should frustrate the TCU guards. Remember that the Orange is also the tallest team in the country, not just the tournament. Conversely, the TCU defense should allow the Orange's shooters some opportunities they are usually not afforded. TCU is an atrocious 324th nationally in three-point FG% defense, allowing opponents to convert at a 38.3% clip. While Syracuse can struggle to score at times, they were able to beat a top-20 offense despite barely shooting 40% from the floor themselves and missing 10 of 23 free throw attempts. I think they'll be better offensively here. But defense tends to beat offense this time of year and experience matters too. This is TCU's 1st NCAA Tourney appearance since 1998. 8* Syracuse 

8* Texas (4:30 ET): This is yet another matchup where one side has an extreme edge in defensive efficiency, this one possibly the most extreme example yet. Texas may have gone just 18-12 SU overall and 8-10 SU in conference, but they finished Top 10 in defensive efficiency nationally. Nevada, 27-7 SU overall and regular season champs in the Mountain West, ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. That massive gap will prove to be the difference maker in this one. Also, it could be said the Wolfpack (tied for highest seed in program history) were somewhat exposed w/ an early exit in the conference tournament where they were beaten badly by San Diego State. Texas hails from the better conference and is being vastly underrated in this spot.

Texas has plenty of size and one of the most impressive frontcourts in the country. The good news is that stud freshman Mohamed Bamba  is set to play here. Bamba is second in the country w/ 3.8 blocks per game. He'll give the Horns a massive edge - literally and figuratively - inside. He played only 14 minutes in the team's 68-64 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinals. That's a good team that they were able to cover against, without their best player. The Longhorns have covered three of four down the stretch, including an impressive win over West Virginia in the regular season final. The 'Horns obviously play in a much stronger conference than Nevada, so take the respective records w/ a grain of salt. 

Nevada has only played eight games against NCAA Tournament teams and three of those were vs. San Diego State (went 1-2). Another was against 16-seed Radford. They went 0-2 SU vs. the BIg 12, losing to TCU and Texas Tech. The Wolfpack are also a banged up team right now. PG Lindsey Drew was lost to an Achilles injury back in mid-February and since then, they've lost twice. Several other players are banged up too and this is just a six-man rotation for HC Eric Musselman. If there's any kind of foul trouble, Nevada will most definitely be "up against it." The way you beat the Wolfpack is by slowing the game down and controlling the boards. Coincidentally, those are the ways Texas wins. In the MWC Semifinal loss to San Diego State, Nevada was -10 in rebounds and found themselves down by THIRTY at the half! In the L3 losses, they are -30 on the boards. The Longhorns get the first NCAA Tourney win of the Shaka Smart era! 8* Texas 

8* Butler (3:10 ET): This is another of these first round matchups where a team that is clearly better (to me) is laying a really short number. It also looks to be one of only two games (also FSU vs. Missouri) where the lower seeded team is favored. Now I will concede that Arkansas is a formidable offensive team and is coming off a nice run in the SEC Tournament. But this time of year is when I put more stock in the defensive end of the floor and there is where the Razorbacks' resume can be picked apart as they rank 103rd nationally in defensive efficiency. That's one of the lowest rankings of any team from a power conference in the tournament. Arkansas beat both South Carolina and Florida in the SEC Tourney, but was then exposed by Tennessee in an 84-66 semifinal loss. Lay the points here w/ Butler.

Over in the Big East Tournament, Butler did not have a good semifinal experience either. They lost to Villanova 87-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. That came on the heels of a buzzer beating victory over Seton Hall, a revenge game for a loss in the regular season finale. The Bulldogs did not finish the regular season particularly well, going just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS their last nine games. But seven of those games were against tourney teams, four away from home, and they still walked away w/ three victories. That may not sound all that impressive, but note the Bulldogs lost three games to teams seeded #1 in the NCAA Tourney, Villanova twice and Xavier. Butler is a respectable 31st nationally in offensive efficiency, not far behind Arkansas (#18), but as alluded to earlier, it's the other end of the floor where the clear edge comes into play. The Bulldogs rank 49th in defensive efficiency. 

But while Butler's edge might be on defense, let's not discount their offense. They scored 101 pts in a victory over Villanova on New Year's Eve (Wildcats' 1st loss of season) and average 79.1 points per game. They are also top 50 in the country in two-point FG%. They've got experience as well w/ six players having been in the Tournament before. Arkansas was already thin in the front court before dismissing Dustin Thomas (a starter!) prior to the SEC Tournament. Also, nine of the Hogs' 10 losses this season came by double digit margins. 8* Butler

analysis soon

8* Texas A&M (12:15 ET): I'm not really "getting" the love for Providence in this spot. Sure, the Friars pulled an upset of Xavier (a #1 seed) last weekend in the Big East Tournament, but they're a pretty pedestrian team from where I sit. Their 3-0 ATS performance last weekend (beat Creighton & Xavier, covered vs. Villanova) can be picked apart in the sense that all three games went into overtime, which probably works AGAINST them here. For what it's worth, Providence has the lowest BPI rating (ESPN) of any at-large team in the field. With the line having shifted, I now see some significant value on Texas A&M. Granted, the Aggies didn't exactly close strong, bowing out earlier than expected in the SEC Tournament w/ a one-point loss to Alabama. But that was a tough spot facing the Crimson Tide a second straight time (beat them in reg season finale). A&M is still #12 in the country in defensive efficiency and that carries a lot of weight w/ me. Lay the points. 

Really, I'm not sure what area Providence has in this matchup. They're also outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. That's owed in large part to a lack of three-point shooting. Only one player on the roster shoots better than 40% from three-point range and the team was second from the bottom among Big East teams from behind the arc. They do a good job defending, particularly the arc, and actually led the Big East in PPG allowed. However, that being said, A&M is still superior defensively. Also as good as the Friars may be at guarding the three-point line, they are in the bottom 100 nationally in two-point FG% at 51.7. Falling behind is never good, but especially for a team the likes of Providence that isn't really built to come from behind.

A&M has both talent and depth in its frontcourt, led by probable 1st rd NBA draft pick Robert Williams, who shot 67% on two-point attempts during the regular season. Given the info provided above on the Providence defense, I look for Williams to have a big game here and exploit the edge the Aggies have on the interior. While Providence is in the bottom 100 nationally in two-point FG defense, A&M is in the top 15. That's a massive edge. Suspensions and injuries hurt the Aggies in the early going of the SEC slate, but now they're at full strength and have six players averaging at least 9.0 PPG. A&M is the better team here and laying a short number, somewhat of a "no-brainer." 8* Texas A&M 

8* Houston (7:20 ET): This Houston team is a legit darkhorse. Ranking in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency, the Cougars are coming off a strong run in the American Tourney where they upset Wichita State, then took Cincinnati to the limit in the Final (lost by only 1 in a real "rock-fight," 56-55). I think they're a solid value Thursday against a San Diego State team that is only here thanks to an upset of Nevada in the Mountain West Tourney. Without that and the subsequent win over New Mexico in the conference tourney final, the Aztecs would be in the NIT, not here. To me, they are clearly the inferior squad here. Lay the short number as I expect Houston to roll in this 6 vs. 11 matchup. 

In terms of talent and the metrics, I think Houston is a lot closer to Cincinnati and Wichita State than people realize. It definitely was a "Big 3" in the American this year and I would argue that the Cougars were actually better than Wichita State! This is an excellent rebounding team, one that has a +7.7 edge in boards per game over their opponents. Then there is the defense, which gives up just 64.9 PPG. Teams shot less than 40% for the season against the Cougs. They do have an issue w/ fouling too much, but I don't think that will hurt them here. Something else that is key is they come into Thursday off a loss. Despite an 18-11 SU record, UH NEVER lost B2B games during the regular season. 

San Diego State seemed headed for a pretty pedestrian season under 1st year HC Brian Dutcher. They were 13-10 SU going into a Valentine's Day tilt w/ Wyoming, but won that game and haven't lost since. It's nine straight wins coming into the Tournament. The big one was obviously beating Nevada in the MWC semis. It was actually the second win in less than a week over the Wolfpack, a pretty good achievement. They also beat Gonzaga earlier in the year. But other than that, there really aren't any other quality wins. They finished fourth in a pretty weak conference and are a fringe top 50 team. I have Houston ranked inside my top 20. While the Aztecs are also pretty good defensively, they lack a "go-to" guy offensively and aren't very prolific from three-point range. Houston, conversely, shoots 38.7% from behind the arc. 8* Houston