10* Seton Hall (4:30 ET): It's my belief that Seton Hall is simply a better all-around team that North Carolina State. Therefore, I have zero issue laying what is a very short number Thursday afternoon in this Round of 64 matchup. The Pirates, who are a fringe Top 25 team from where I sit, come into the Tournament highly motivated after a 1st round exit LY at the hands of Arkansas. All season long it has been the players' stated goal to win a NCAA Tournament game. Adding to the motivation is an earlier than expected exit from the Big East Tournament last week. A good Butler team beat them (by one) on a last second tip-in. That was no upset though as the Pirates were slight underdogs. They come into Thursday on a 5-0 ATS run.

NC State is wholly unimpressive and I'm not exactly sure they deserved to be among the field of 68. This is a team that trailed Pitt (who didn't win a single ACC game this year) at the half. Yes, they did beat both Duke and North Carolina, the latter coming on the road. But when you start talking about the defensive end of the floor, that is when the cracks really start to show with this team. They rank 100th nationally in defensive efficiency, a dubious distinction, as only a "handful" of power conference teams that made the Tournament rank lower in that department. They gave up 91 points to Boston College last week, making them one and done in the ACC Tourney. They shot better than 50% from three-point range and 53% overall and still lost!

That kind of leaky defense should prove problematic against a Seton Hall squad averaging 79.0 PPG. Granted, the Pirates aren't the best defensively themselves, but they are 43 spots higher in efficiency compared to NC State. This is also a team that traditionally plays well when rested. They are 11-2 ATS when taking the court w/ five or six days rest. The Pirates have been "one and done" in the Tourney each of the last two years, so will the third time "be the charm?" Yes, I think so. NC State has not been to the Tournament since 2015, which was under a previous regime. Their non-conference schedule was not good and this is a team that does not fare well under the slower pace that Tournament games tend to be played at. Seton Hall is the more experienced team here and the fact they don't turn the ball over much will spell doom for a NC State team that struggles when the other team isn't giving it away. 10* Seton Hall

8* Loyola IL (3:10 ET): Of all the first round matchups, this is the one where the lower seed is most likely to win, in my opinion. The oddsmakers certainly seem to agree, installing 6th seeded Miami as only a short favorite for this battle w/ regular season and conference tourney champ Loyola IL, out of the Missouri Valley. This Ramblers are in the Big Dance for the 1st time in 33 years, so the opportunity certainly won't be taken lightly. This is a team that can shoot the lights out (50.7 FG% for the season, third best in the country and tops among tournament teams!) and perhaps more importantly they can play defense too. This is the rare time where a team seeded 11 or lower has a markedly better defensive efficiency rating than its counterpart. Loyola is 25th nationally in defensive efficiency while Miami is 45th. It all adds up to a 1st round upset, IMO. Take the points. 

It's not as if "The U" heads into the Big Dance in fine form either. Being 4-4 SU over your last eight games is unimpressive on its own, but when you consider that those four wins came by a TOTAL of eight points, well, it's even less impressive. Furthemore, the Hurricanes will be w/o soph guard Bruce Brown, Jr, due to a left foot injury. Now Brown has been out for awhile (surgery was Feb 1), but since his departure, the team's lone DD win was against a Pitt team that went winless in ACC play. The Canes have gone just 3-10 ATS their L13 games. They have not shot the ball well this year, either from the free throw line (66.6%!) or three-point range (36.5%) and lack experience. As a favorite, their ATS record this season was only 5-10. 

Meanwhile, Loyola lost only five times all year and comes into the tourney having won 17 of 18. They have five double digit scorers and six different players shoot better than 37.5% from behind the arc. As a team, the Ramblers shoot nearly 40% from distance! They beat Florida earlier this season (in Gainesville!). Their three conference losses were by a combined 11 pts, none greater than a five-point margin. Honestly, looking at this matchup, I'm not sure how much of an "upset" it would really be as Loyola may simply be the better team overall. They are top five in the country in PPG allowed, giving up just 62.7 PPG. This was an awful draw for the 'Canes. 8* Loyola IL

8* UNC Greensboro (1:30 ET): When searching for a potential "Cinderella" in the NCAA Tournament, there are several "boxes" I like to check. First off, did the team win its regular season conference crown? In the case of UNC Greensboro, that's a check, as the Spartans won the SoCon w/ a 15-3 SU record and went 27-7 SU overall. They beat a very good East Tennessee State team in the Tournamet Final, 62-47. They can also play some defense too, ranking inside the top 30 in efficiency nationally. That's another key metric I like to look at (it certainly "foretold" South Carolina's run to the Final 4 last year). For this 1st round matchup, UNCG draws LY's national runner-up Gonzaga and I think they're getting way too many points.

Gonzaga largely sleepwalked through WCC play, something that they could get away with, considering how bad the league was this season. St. Mary's not getting into the Tournament certainly hurts the Zags' resume. This team is not as strong as last year's, which entered the Big Dance #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. This year, they dropped down to 16th. But again, you have to question the resume as the Zags haven't beaten a Tournament team going back to December 1st. That makes them no different than UNCG in that regard. Gonzaga did "turn it on" in the conference tourney, beating all three opponents by double digits. But two of those teams aren't very good (Loyola Marymount, San Francisco) and they were lucky to avoid St. Mary's in the Final, instead playing BYU. The late run has the Zags a bit overvalued here, IMO.

In my estimation, UNC Greensboro would be the 4th best team in the WCC. Really, they are pretty comparable to BYU. Now, yes, I haven't forgotten what I just typed about the WCC Final. But a big key here is how Gonzaga isn't as familiar w/ UNCG as they are BYU, who they played three times. The line here is also several pts higher than it was for that BYU game. Something to make note of is that UNC Greensboro has a lot more size than you're accustomed to seeing from a mid-major. That's a big reason why this team ranked 6th nationally in PPG allowed. The Spartans covered all six non-conference games that were lined in the regular season. Not sure they'll pull the outright upset, but expect a close game here. 8* UNC Greensboro

8* Syracuse (9:10 ET): Defensive efficiency is a key metric that I will lean on throughout the NCAA Tournament. Here, it looks to be a huge edge for Syracuse. Neither of these teams should have even gotten into the Big Dance, but now that both are here, we should probably look to exploit the situation. Jim Boeheim will COACH against Bobby Hurley here and I don't know who that should make "feel older" - me, or Boeheim. Regardless, the veteran HC brings a much better defensive team into this year's tournament compared to what Hurley has. Syracuse ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while ASU is an unsightly 125th, the worst such ranking of any team from any "major" conference in the tournament. Based on that and the fact they're a slight dog, I'm all over the Orange here.

Both of these squads have the somewhat dubious distinction of owning losing records in conference play (both 8-10 SU). Again though, that seems like a knock against ASU given that they play in the weak Pac 12, which sent only three teams to the Tourney and two (them and UCLA) are "first four" participants. Meanwhile, I'm not going to ever give a ringing endorsement of a team that goes 8-10 SU in conference play, but at least Syracuse has the "excuse" of playing in the ACC, which sent NINE teams to the Big Dance, the most of any league in the land. The 'Cuse can at least say they have wins over the likes of Clemson and Miami, both of whom are seeded six or higher. While Arizona State started 12-0 w/ wins over Xavier and Kansas (both #1 seeds), the metrics were all in agreement that the offensive production (were averaging 91.8 PPG!) was unsustainable and that regression was forthcoming. That is exactly what transpired. 

Now Syracuse might be as inept offensively as any team in this Tournament. But again, it's the other end of the floor that will determine the outcome of this game. Against power five foes that average 70 or fewer possessions per game, ASU went just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in the regular season. Syracuse plays slow and will obviously play a lot of zone here. Those are two things that have given the Sun Devils all sorts of trouble. Meanwhile, ASU's defense is just terrible as they rank only one spot higher in efficiency than Radford, a 16-seed that had to win a "first four game" yday. 8* Syracuse

10* Radford (6:40 ET): We've moved past questioning the existence of these first four "play in" (opening round) games, at least I think. Every year, we've seen at least one team that played either Tuesday or Wednesday advance to the Rd of 32. Of course, none of the 16 seeds have ever done that. But seeing as no 16 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed, it's kind of nice to have these games as at least there is the chance for victory. Typically, these 16 vs. 16 seed matchups feature teams that did NOT win their regular season conference crown and such is the case here. Radford hails from the Big South and they caught a break in the conference tournament as top seed UNC Asheville was eliminated in the semifinal round, then won in the final on a buzzer beater. LIU Brooklyn won the Northeast Conference by stunning top seeded Wagner themselves in the Tournament Final. 

Though Radford didn't finish first in the Big South, it's not as if they weren't close. They finished in second place, just one game behind UNC Asheville. They come into the Big Dance on a real roll, having won seven in a row. Now I will concede that they didn't play UNC Asheville (who was the last team to beat them, by two, back on 2.10)during that stretch and instead picked up a good number of wins against the bottom of the conference (including two over last place Longwood). However, they did beat #3 seed Winthrop in the semifinals and then Liberty (who ousted UNC Asheville) in the final. The Highlanders have been playing some great defense of late, holding six of the last seven opponents to 53 pts or less. They've allowed just 50.8 PPG the L5 contests on 39.2% shooting. Though it won't matter beyond tonight, playing that kind of defense is huge this time of year. Radford ranks in the top 20 nationally for scoring defense this season. 

Long Island has also turned in some solid defensive numbers of late as opponents have shot only 35.5% against them the L5 games. That percentage seems somewhat unsustainable, however. The Blackbirds stunned reg season champ Wagner in the NEC Final, 71-61 as 9.5-pt dogs, thanks in large part to Wagner shooting only 30 percent from the field. It was Wagner's only home loss of the season (what a time!) and the 1st half was the difference maker as LIU was able to go into the break w/ a shocking 34-18 edge. I just cannot see the Blackbirds coming anywhere close to duplicating that kind of performance. It's not as if they are any kind of stout defensive team. They rank 295th in defensive efficiency, which is second worst among the 68 tournament teams. (Radford is 133rd, 2nd best among the 16 seeds (Penn)). LIU was only 13-16 SU on Feb 21st and didn't beat a single team in the field of 68 all year. They are a small team that ranks in the top 17 nationally in turning the ball over. Though Radford has not been to an NCAA Tournament since '09, this is the third time in the last five seasons under HC Mike Jones that they've won 20+ games. They are the better team here and should win relatively easily. 10* Radford

10* Pennsylvania (12:00 ET): I made a bet bet against Penn Saturday afternoon, completing underestimating the power of their homecourt advantage in this Ivy League Tournament. The Quakers absolutely rolled Yale, winning 80-57 as five-point favorites (in fairness, I wasn't the only one. The line was bet down a couple points before tipoff.) Now, we get the matchup the Ivy League brass was looking for as the top two seeds, Penn and Harvard square off to determine who will move onto the NCAA Tournament. We've seen a lot of upsets in the last 48 hours w/ so-called "bid-thieves" winning their conference tourney. But w/ the Ivy, it should come as no surprise that we have the top two teams in the final. It's only a four-team tournament and one of the co-regular season champs is playing on its home floor. I underestimated that factor for Penn yday, but won't make the same mistake again today. Lay the points. 

Penn and Harvard split the two regular season matchups, each side winning at home. First, it was Harvard's turn in a 76-67 victory on February 10th. But then Penn got some revenge w/ a 74-71 win two weeks later. Note that the Quakers were four-point favorites when they hosted Harvard, so there's some value when you compare that to today's line. Penn is now 12-3 SU this season at The Palestra while outscoring its visitors by 13.7 PPG. They are 9-1 SU as a home favorite. They never trailed on Saturday, took a 19-point lead into halftime and never looked back. They held Yale to only 32.8% shooting from the field.

Likewise, Harvard had no problems beating Cornell on Saturday. The Crimson won 74-55 (as 5.5-pt chalk), but interestingly there was no massive disparity in FG% like there was in the Yale-Penn game. Harvard didn't pull away until the second half and it boiled down to them dominating the glass (leading to 11 more FGA for them) and the three-point line where Harvard had a big edge. Again, I made a bad error in judgement, underrating the Quakers' homecourt advantage yesterday. I won't make the same mistake twice as they certainly appear to be undervalued in Sunday's Final. 10* Pennsylvania

10* Montana (8:00 ET): This is the Tournament Final in the Big Sky with the top seed Montana facing off w/ the "hottest" team in the conference, that being Eastern Washington. For over a decade, these have been the top two programs in the conference, so they are no strangers to one another nor meeting in this position. Eastern Washington has won eight in a row coming into tonight, covering the spread in all but one of those victories. But they got a break in the semifinals, drawing 10 seed Southern Utah, who upset the #2 seed Idaho the day before. That made for a relatively easy matchup for the Eagles, who won 82-70. Meanwhile, Montana's road here was far more precarious. They needed OT to get by Northern Colorado. But that sets up a strong value play here on the Golden Grizzlies, who also have revenge here. Lay the points. 

In the only regular season meeting between these two, Eastern Washington walked away victorious 74-65 as four-point home dogs. They shot 56.2% from the floor that day (Feb 15th). You can see the value though, as Montana is now laying fewer points at a neutral setting (Reno) than they were in Cheney. Granted, based on the earlier result, oddsmakers had to make some kind of adjustment. I just happen to feel that it is an overadjustment. Montana has been favored in every Big Sky game this season. They are clearly the best team the league has to offer.

That said, the Golden Grizzlies are lucky to be here. They trailed Northern Colorado most of the way last night and were down six w/ just over a minute to go in regulation. The problem they had in that game was the three-point line. Northern Colorado was 7 of 11 from behind the arc while Montana attempted only six three-pointers and made just one (in a game that went to OT!). Note in the regular season matchup with EWU, the Golden Grizzlies attempted 22 three-pointers (made only six). They are admittedly not a great three-pt shooting team, but they do make over 50% of their two-point attempts. Eastern Washington has won only three of the 13 games it has been an underdog this season, two of those coming during the last month. I just can't see Montana slipping up here. 10* Montana

8* Yale (3:00 ET): For the life of me, I can't understand why this line is so high. These teams just met last week, in the second-to-last regular season game for both, and it was Yale prevailing 80-79 as 2.5-pt home dogs. Again, that was clearly a bad line, so I'm not sure why the oddsmakers haven't really adjusted at all for this season's third meeting. Now Penn did win the first meeting, 59-50 as 5.5-pt home chalk, and they are the Ivy League Tournament hosts here as the smallest conference tournament in the country takes place at The Palestra this weekend. But even still, I believe the value is on the dog here in this second of two semifinals today in the Ivy League. Take the points. 

Only the top four teams in the Ivy League qualify for the postseason tournament and this is the #2 vs. #3 seed matchup. Penn tied for Harvard for the regular season crown and had the far better overall record, but is the #2 seed due to a tiebreaker that involved beating Yale. Because Harvard swept Yale and Penn split w/ them, it was Harvard that got the top spot. So, you can definitely say Yake cost Penn the top seed last week. The Bulldogs were somehow able to win despite shooting significantly worse than the Quakers, particularly from three-point range. It's actually pretty impressive that they were able to take the game considering the respective shooting percentages. Yale should shoot much better today while Penn is due for a decline from Saturday's regular season finale vs. Brown where they shot 56.1% overall and 11 of 18 from three-point range. 

Yale comes into the tournament having won and covered four straight. They ended their regular season w/ a 94-90 overtime win over Princeton on Saturday. Three of the wins during the four-game streak have come by four points or fewer. Still, you have to tip your cap to the Bulldogs this season for persevering w/o Makai Mason. They've actually won seven of eight w/ the only loss occurring at Harvard. Yes, it's a big break for Penn that this weekend's games are being contested on their home floor. But they are only 2-6 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. I do not see the Quakers covering the spread in this one. 8* Yale 

10* Toledo (9:00 ET): This is yet another instance of me going w/ a team that has double revenge from the regular season. Yesterday afternoon, this worked out quite well w/ Kansas beating Oklahoma State and there have been several other successful plays earlier in the week. My latest comes from the MAC Tournament where in the second semifinal matchup, Toledo is out for revenge against Eastern Michigan. The Rockets lost both regular season matchups, by six up in Ypsilanti back in late February (85-79, +2.5) and by two in the regular season finale (71-69, -5) at home. I'm sure the players (especially the seniors) haven't forgotten about what happend last week and I'm on the avenging team. 

Toledo did not cover in yesterday's quarterfinal win over Miami (OH). In fact, they barely won. It was a 71-69 final and Miami had a shot to win at the end. However, the Rockets did lead by as many as 12 in the second half. The key was their leading scorer and MAC Player of the Year Tre'Shaun Fletcher leaving w/ a leg/knee injury. Fletcher is currently listed as probable to play tonight and given the circumstance (win or go home!), you have to assume he will be out on the floor. If for some reason he is not (again, I expect he will), we'll then get an inflated line. Note that Fletcher actually played one of his worst games of the season the last time these teams met (9 pts on 3 of 10 shooting) and Toledo still almost won. That game was decided on a three-pointer made by Eastern Michigan's Paul Jackson w/ 8.8 seconds remaining. 

Eastern Michigan would appear to be the "hotter" team coming into tonight as they've won seven in a row, covering the spread in each of the last six. Last night saw a solid defensive performance in a 67-58 win over Akron as six-point chalk. However, be aware that the Eagles trailed by nine at halftime and by as many as 14 in the 2H. They then went on a game-changing 28-4 run to beat the Zips for the first time in six tries in MAC Tourney play. Akron was held w/o a single made basket for the final 6:38 of the game. Simply put, I do not believe that scenario is repeatable here. Also, let's put these teams' respective seasons into some context. Eastern Michigan was only 5-7 SU in MAC play before their current win streak began. Toledo was right behind Buffalo for the top spot most of the season before taking three of its five league losses over the last month. They are the better team, which is not properly reflected by this line. 10* Toledo

8* St. Joseph's (2:30 ET): Twice these teams met in the regular season and both times George Mason pulled an upset. The first time was in Fairfax w/ the Patriots winning 81-79 as four-point pups. Then in Philly, they won 79-76 as seven-point pups. Going back to last season, they've actually now upset the Hawks three straight times as the lone meeting in 2017 saw the Patriots prevail (again in Philly), 75-67 as four-point pups. But in addition to getting some nice line value on the favorite here (especially compared to 1st meeting when St. Joe's was a four-point favorite on the road), GMU finds itself at a distinct disadvantage as the lower seed because they had to play yday while the Hawks did not. Lay the points here.

I just can't see George Mason pulling a third upset here. There really hasn't been an upset in the A-10 Tourney so far, unless you want to count 13-seed UMass beating 12-seed LaSalle in the opening round. The top eight seeds have all advanced to the quarterfinals, with the top four (St. Joe's counted among them) all getting double byes to this point. Now many of the games have been close here in D.C. Case in point, George Mason won by only five yday, although they were only 1.5-pt favorites. The keys were FT shooting and second chance points as the Patriots did not make a field goal in the game's final four minutes and were outshot, 53.2% to 35.9%. Really, it's game - that on paper - they "should have" lost. But sinking 28 of 31 free throws plus converting 20 offensive rebounds into 26 points was huge. Note that while the Patriots come into this game having won four of five, all four wins were by five points or less.

Meanwhile, St. Joe's has been off for nearly a week and ended its regular season on a three-game SU and ATS win streak. We last saw the Hawks winning at home over LaSalle, 78-70 as 3.5-pt home chalk. But, by far, the most notable thing on their resume was their 30-point beatdown of A-10 regular season champ Rhode Island (on the road!) the game before LaSalle. That right there tells me this is a team to be feared (a win here sets up another game vs. URI potentially). I think it speaks volumes GMU was only a 1.5-pt fave over the 13-seed yday. The Hawks have covered three straight times when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. 8* St. Joseph's

8* Louisiana Tech (9:30 ET): I know the Bulldogs had to win last night (beat North Texas 68-62 as 3.5-pt favorites) and thus face an "uphill climb" here against second seeded Old Dominion in the C-USA tournament. However, this is a lot of points. They were only a 2.5-pt home dog to the Monarchs when they dropped the lone regular season meeting, albeit by a score of 82-69. ODU shot a pretty ridiculous 56.6% from the field that day, also knocking down 10 of the 20 three-point attempts they took. I do not anticipate that kind of offensive efficiency here. ODU is a hot team entering this tournament (won 8 of 9), but they really haven't played anyone of any real substance during that stretch. They're overvalued and I'll take the points.

Note that despite being the lower seed yday, Louisiana Tech didn't really "upset" North Texas, at least in the eyes of the oddsmakers as they were installed as favorites. The Bulldogs went into halftime w/ a four point lead and never trailed in the second half. What was the key? Nothing in particuar, honestly, although some good free throw shooting late put the game out of reach. It was also the fewest points the Bulldogs allowed in a game since a 73-60 win over UAB back on February 15th. In between those two wins, they did lose four straight, but three of those games were on the road and the other was to regular season champ Middle Tennessee. It goes w/o saying that the Bulldogs are playing w/ "house money" here. 

As for ODU, despite finishing second in the regular season, they probably need to win the tournament this weekend to have any shot at the Big Dance. Don't be shocked if they are already looking ahead to a potential semifinal matchup w/ Western Kentucky, who destroyed them late in the regular season, 88-66. This being the last quarterfinal of the day is a break for La Tech, who played yesterday. Were it an earlier game, I might be less inclined to take the points. But at the very worst, I sense the backdoor will open late in this game and don't discount that lookahead factor mentioned above. While ODU delivered multiple routs down the home stretch of the regular season, they also had four wins by exactly five points. I anticipate a close game here. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Kansas (2:30 ET): I absolutely love this matchup as the top-seeded Jayhawks come in not only w/ a case of double revenge, but also the advantage of a bye. Oklahoma State, who shockingly won both regular season matchups against the Jayhawks, had to win yday (over rival Oklahoma) just to get here. Kansas has been off since Saturday when they were humiliated down in Stillwater, losing 82-64 as 3.5-pt favorites. I can't see them losing to the Pokes for a second straight time, let alone a third time this season. Note this spread is nearly identical to what Bill Self's team was laying last weekend in Stillwater and now we're at a neutral setting. Lay the points. 

Oklahoma State is obviously fighting for its NCAA Tournament life right now. According to the "esteemed" Joe Lunardi, the Cowboys are among the "first four out" of the field of 68, but he also has Oklahoma among the last four "in." There is no denying that the Pokes are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have covered the number in five straight, winning four of the five straight up and the one loss was by a point at Texas. Last night, they led Oklahoma by as many as 16 pts despite not even shooting the ball relatively well. But this is obviously a very quick turnaround, something that puts them at a distinct disadvantage (which should be the case for the lower seed).

History is NOT on OSU's side here. Granted, they did become the first team to swep a regular season series from Kansas in the Bill Self era. But the last time the Jayhawks lost to the same opponent three times in the same season was 1983! Now KU didn't lead at all in the regular season finale and shot just 41.7% from the floor in what was their worst effort of the year. Consider that they shot 50% or better from the floor each of the L3 games, twice topping 60%. Yes, there is bad news in that they must open this Tournament w/o Udoka Azubuike, who sprained his knee in practice on Tuesday. With that news and the fact OK State swept the regular season series (and is a bubble team to boot), it's easy to understand why this spread is several points lower than it ought to be. Bottom line is there's a ton of value on Kansas though, who remember is fighting to be a #1 seed next week. 10* Kansas

8* Memphis (2:30 ET): Memphis basketball is seemingly NOT in a good place right now w/ rumors abound that Tubby Smith will be replaced as head coach in favor of famous alum Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway. Smith has hardly been a great fit here, but it is worth nothing that the Tigers are playing arguably their best basketball of the season for their embattled head coach. They closed the regular season by winning five of six and are the fifth seed in the American Conference Tournament. That's not a bad spot to be in considering there's only three NCAA Tourney teams in this league and Memphis can avoid all of them until the semifinals. This afternoon, they look to avenge that one loss over the last six games, as they face last place South Florida.

USF has won B2B games coming into this weekend's tournament in Orlando. How rare is that? Well, before the B2B wins, they stood at 1-15 SU in conference play. They snapped an eight-game losing streak when they stunned Memphis (on the road!) 75-51 as 13.5-point dogs exactly one week ago. Consider that Memphis went into that game off four consecutive outright wins as an underdog! So, what happened? Well, it was basically one big half for the Bulls (first) as they led wire to wire. Memphis turning the ball over 10 times in the 1H and shooting only 3 of 19 from three-point range certainly didn't help matters either. USF would then go on to upset slumping SMU, 65-54 as 8.5-pt dogs, on Sunday.

Needless to say, I do not see history repeating itself this week. USF simply isn't very good. They did have a three-game win streak back in December, but that was at the expense of three very bad teams, one of them a non-board team. This is the 1st time all season the Bulls have won and covered consecutive games. The two wins have seen them turn in their two best defensive efforts of the conference slate. I expect them to regress here. Yes, it's a little dangerous to endorse Memphis given the off the court turmoil, but they've scored 83 or more points in three of the last four games. They closed the regular season w/ a 90-70 thumping of East Carolina and can do the same to the only team that finished below ECU in the AAC standings. By the way, Memphis did go to South Florida and win earlier in the season, 86-74 as 8.5-pt chalk. We're laying a smaller price here at a neutral site. 8* Memphis

10* Ole Miss (9:30 ET): As a 7-seed, South Carolina made a somewhat improbable Final Four runs last year, although their defensive efficiency rating should have told you such a run was possible. This year, things aren't looking so good for Frank Martin's Gamecocks. Eight SEC teams are currently projected to be in the field of 68, yet USC isn't one of them as they finished just 7-11 SU in conference play. There has been success at the betting window (6-0 ATS L6), but much of it has come from the underdog role. Consider they lost three of those six straight games that they've covered in. In the 1st round of the SEC Tournament, the Gamecocks draw Ole Miss, who has "nothing to lose" and will have confidence from the fact they beat South Carolina in the lone regular season meeting between the two. Take the points. 

That win over South Carolina, 73-69 back on New Year's Eve, stands as one of the few highlights of the Rebels' 2018 season. They finished last in the conference (5-13 SU overall) and have dropped 10 of the last 11 overall. A majority of the recent defeats have been by double digits. However, they have beaten teams such as Missouri, Alabama and Florida, in addition to South Carolina. As bad as things have looked in Oxford, remember the Rebels finished only two games back of South Carolina in the SEC standings. Ole Miss had to endure a mid-season coaching change as well w/ Andy Kennedy stepping down and Tony Madlock taking over on an interim basis. That's never easy. Not only are the Rebels 1-10 SU their L11 games, they are also 1-10 ATS! Yet, it's curious that they'd still come in as such a short underdog. Ole Miss has won at least one SEC Tournament game five of the past seven seasons. 

I admit that the basis of this play is that both teams are unlikely to continue their respective ATS streaks moving forward. It's pretty rare that we see such polar opposite streaks coincide at the betting window. Ole Miss actually was favored, albeit at home, in that regular season meeting. Note tonight marks only the fourth time in the past 16 games that South Carolina has been favored. There will be no Final Four run this year in Columbia as the Gamecocks seem poised to suffer an embarrassing upset tonight. 10* Ole Miss

8* Florida State (12:00 ET): This is a key matchup for both teams as a loss could prove extremely detrimental to the respective NCAA Tournament cases. Louisville, which has had to endure a horrendous year off the court, comes in at 19-12 SU overall and has dropped four of five. As of yday, they were considered "the first four out" among bracketologists. Florida State is in a slightly better spot as they're a "consensus" 9-seed right now, which makes you think it would take a lot of "bid theives" to knock them from the field of 68. Still, same as Louisville, the 'Noles don't want to lose in this spot. These teams split two regular season matchups, each winning on the other's floor. So what is the key in a matchup that seems so even? Well, it's all about recent form. 

Now, FSU hasn't exactly been "firing on all cylinders" itself these past few weeks as they've dropped four of seven themselves. In their last two victories, they had to rally both times and that was against Boston College and Pitt, two of the ACC's worst teams. The Seminoles have not been strong at the betting window down the stretch as they come into the Conference Tournament on a 0-6-1 ATS run. (That push occurred in the reg season finale vs. BC). But interestingly enough, the 'Noles last cover came back when they went to Louisville and upset the Cardinals (were 3-pt underdogs), 80-76. In both matchups w/ Louisville, FSU was able to dominate the boards and that's what I anticipate happening again in this rubber match. 

Louisville had to play North Carolina, Duke and Virginia down the stretch, losing to all three, w/ the home loss to UVA being the most infamous and painful. Once upon a time, this team was sitting pretty at 10-2 SU, but they've basically been a .500 team ever since w/ no true impressive victories. Perhaps the scandal that has engulfed the program has finally gotten the players. But whatever the reason for the late season swoon, it seems irreversible at this point. They've given up an average of 77.2 PPG their L5 contests and Florida State comes in averaging 82.0 PPG itself. Note that in Louisville's win over FSU, they trailed by as many as 17 points. The Seminoles' ability to get to the FT line may ultimately end up being the difference in this one. 8* Florida State

10* Portland State (11:05 ET): Handicapping this game reminds me a bit of a matchup I had my eyes on last night (but did not play) between Ohio and Miami, out in the MAC. There the favorite was playing w/ double revenge and got the easy cover as a favorite. Now the RedHawks weren't favored by quite as much as Portland State is here, and they were playing at home w/ immediate revenge as Ohio had come in and beaten them in the reg season finale. But, nevertheless, I think the comparison stands. Portland State has double revenge here, which is something no team should really ever have against Sacramento State. I look for the Vikings to win in a rout tonight as the third time will be the charm. Lay the points. 

Sacramento State has won just ONE game away from home all season (1-17 SU overall). That was at Portland State back on January 27th as they pulled off a somewhat improbable 71-61 victory as 11.5-pt dogs. As alluded to earlier, they also beat Portland State at home, 80-75 as 8.5-pt home dogs. Given that they were getting 8.5 pts at home against this same opponent, it sure looks like there's some real value on the other side in this neutral setting (Reno). Sacramento State finished the regular season w/ another upset, this time over Northern Colorado, but the record is still only 7-24 SU overall and 4-14 SU vs. conference opponents. The Hornets have never won B2B games this season and were winless in February. The win over Northern Colorado last Saturday snapped a nine-game losing skid. 

Portland State finished sixth in the Big Sky standings, thanks to a tiebreaker over Idaho State. The Vikings aren't going to look past this opening round matchup, given what happened in the regular season. This is a high-scoring team, one that averages an impressive 86.8 PPG, third most in the entire country. Sacramento State is averaging only 67.4 PPG. Yet somehow they shot better than 60% from the floor in the first meeting w/ Portland State. Even more shocking though was PSU only shooting 34.4% in the rematch and finishing w/ only 61 pts. The Vikings were a combined 13 of 49 from three-point range in the two games, a percentage they should improve upon exponentially here. I'm expecting a rout tonight. 10* Portland State

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET): While the 'Zags have been exerting their usual dominance over the rest of the WCC (save for St. Mary's) this season, oddsmakers have had their way w/ them. Routinely facing double-digit spreads, often north of 20 pts, Gonzaga is a money-burning 7-12 ATS in conference play. That may not sound all that bad, but consider they opened by covering four of their first five. So that means they are just 3-11 ATS since and sure enough they failed to cover the spread in their first WCC Tourney game, an 83-69 triumph over Loyola Marymount (were -19). The spread is now lower though as they face San Francisco in the semifinals (winner plays BYU-St. Mary's winner). I'm going to lay the points here. 

We are getting what looks to be some really solid value here when you consider Gonzaga was a 14.5-pt choice AT San Francisco back on January 13th. The Zags won that game by only 10 pts, 75-65, which is what actually kickstarted this ATS slide. While that spread may have been too high and - clearly - so was the 18.5-pt number when they faced the Dons at home two weeks later (won 82-73), this one is a lot more manageable. Gonzaga shot 50% or better in both games vs. USF in the regular season and comes in averaging 84.7 PPG. I find it a little odd then that they failed to reach their scoring average in both matchups. San Francisco was able to slow the games down a bit, but they didn't get to the free throw line much either time. The Dons have lost 40 of the last 45 matchups vs. Gonzaga. 

San Francisco needed overtime to get here as they beat Pacific by one point, 71-70, in the quarterfinals. Not having to play the next day is a break, but the bottom line here is that the Dons are still outclassed. Sure, Gonzaga pretty much sleepwalked through the win over Loyola Marymount. They led by only one at halftime after turning the ball over seven times in the first 13 minutes. But after the break, the offense caught fire and was shooting 80% before garbage time. That shows me that the Bulldogs can pretty much "name the score" here and the key is that this is the lowest pointspread for any Gonzaga WCC game (save for St. Mary's or BYU) all season. 8* Gonzaga 

10* Iona (7:00 ET): I've been closely following the MAAC Tourney where things were quickly thrown into chaos as the top three seeds were all eliminated in the quarterfinal round. That left Iona as the highest remaining seed and the Gaels struggled to advance yday, just getting by 9-seed St. Peters (who had just beaten top-seeded Rider) 65-62 as five-point chalk. The Gaels needed to rally from 10 points down at halftime after missing 10 consecutive field goal attempts. But they looked every bit the better team in the 2H, scoring 45 pts over the final 20 minutes. Their opponent in this Tournament Final is six-seed Fairfield, who comes in on a seven-game win streak. But the key is that the Stags were the favorite in all seven of those games. They aren't here and I have Iona getting the MAAC's auto bid to the NCAA Tournament. 

Fairfield ousted Quinnipiac yday, 74-64 as 3.5-point favorites. They were exceptionally proficient from the free throw line and turned it on defensively down the stretch, forcing the Bobcats to miss all but one of their final 11 FG attempts. But let's note that w/ the exception of the quarterfinal "upset" of 3rd seeded Niagara, the Stags have been feasting on the dregs of the MAAC during this run. Note I had the word upset in quotation marks in the last sentence and that's because the Stags were actually favored in that game vs. Niagara, so it really wasn't an upset despite being the lower seed. Fairfield's defense has been much improved during the win streak as the last five opponents have been held to roughly 11.3 points per game less than what they usually give up. 

Iona has the offense capable of reversing that trend, even though we haven't seen it so far in this tournament. The Gaels did not shoot well against either Manhattan or St. Peter's, but still come in averaging an impressive 79.7 points per game. I'm going out on a limb and calling for a breakout performance here. There certainly appears to be some line value here when you consider the Gaels were three-point favorites at Fairfield back on January 29th. They lost that game, 103-100 (in overtime), but also crushed the Stags at home earlier in the year by 19. Remember Fairfield had to play one more tourney game to get here. 10* Iona

8* Oakland (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, the "skies have opened" for Oakland in the Horizon League Tournament. The Golden Grizzlies were considered the preseason favorite to win this league, but were a major disappointment during the regular season, finishing only fourth in the standings. But the top seed in this tournament (Northern Kentucky) was eliminated in this tournament in shocking fashion last night (by Cleveland State!) and that makes the Golden Grizzlies path to the final a lot more manageable. Sure, second seeded Wright State is still alive on the other half of the bracket, but Oakland wouldn't have to worry about them until the Finals. The Grizzlies should be totally reinvigorated by yday's results and I expect them to roll today against IUPUI. Lay the points. 

IUPUI was probably like every other Horizon League team and happy to see Northern Kentucky go. But in the case of the Jaguars, the "selfishness" was quite tangible as they were crushed (at home) by NKU in the reg season finale, 75-56 last Sunday. That win had snapped a three-game win streak, all of the victories coming from the underdog role. One was against Oakland, at home, 74-67 as 5.5-pt home dogs. IUUPI covered both regular season matchups as they only lost by eight back on February 4th (were +12.5). Certainly, I agree there needs to be some sort of adjustment from the oddsmakers for this rubber match, but I think it's gone too far and there's significant value on Oakland this time. The Golden Grizzlies couldn't buy a field goal in that last meeting as they missed 23 of 31 three-point attempts and shot just 34.8% overall. Certainly, they'll be more prolific offensively tonight (they average 79.8 PPG). 

Oakland has not been good at the betting window this year, which is a reflection of them failing to match expectations. They were just 4-14 ATS vs. the rest of the Horizon League this season and 5-16 ATS for the season as a favorite. But fortunate for them is that IUPUI won just twice away from home all season. I think it speaks volumes that Oakland was favored in all but one Horizon League game and that was when they visited Northern Kentucky, a game that they won going away, 83-70 (+6.5). Trust me when I say that Oakland is your new favorite to win the Horizon League Tourney. 8* Oakland

10* Purdue (4:30 ET): There is no denying that Michigan is the "hot" team right now in College Basketball, but beating Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days is something that probably no team is capable of, not even one that comes into today riding an eight-game win streak. Granted, the Wolverines played Purdue tough TWICE during the regular season, losing by only 1 and 4 pts respectively. But that combined w/ yday's results have conspired to drive this down further than it ought to be. Purdue is on my short list of possible NCAA Tournament winners and I actually like the fact that they come in having struggled at the betting window the last month or so, as it means they'll be undervalued. Lay the points.

You probably know what Michigan did yday. They upset top-seeded Michigan State, 75-64 as five-point underdogs, which really suprised me. Yes, the Wolverines were coming off an impressive blowout win over Nebraska (by 19) the day before, but what about the fact they needed OT to get by lowly Iowa on Thursday? This is now the Maize and Blue's fourth game in four days and that is likely to catch up w/ them. Meanwhile, Purdue got a bye to the quarterfinals by virtue of being the #2 seed and has played only two games to get here. They did not cover against either Rutgers or Penn State, but remember those were two teams playing for their "NCAA Tournament lives" (no chance of at-large bid). 

Purdue has lost only five games all season, three of them coming in February, all of which were close. All three losses were by four points or less, by a combined margin of eight and two were in the road. Note that when the Boilermakers hosted the Wolverines back in January, they were 11-pt favorites. That spread was too high in retrospect, but even after factoring out the homecourt edge, the oddsmakers have overadjusted here IMO. Purdue is quite underrated offensively as they are #2 in the nation in efficiency (per KenPom), which has led to the third best scoring differential. You don't get a price this cheap on them too often and while they barely beat the Wolverines in both regular season meetings, I see the third time being the charm as far as ATS is concerned. 10* Purdue

8* Ga Southern (5:00 ET): Louisiana (16-1 SU) ran away w/ the Sun Belt regular season crown this year, but there's still a tight battle going on for third between Georgia Southern and UT Arlington. The former leads by a half game coming into today's reg season finale and can actually finish in a second place tie thanks in large part to their opponent, Troy. The Trojans upset Georgia State on Thursday, 83-70 as 7.5-pt dogs. No matter what, Ga Southern will do no better than the third seed in the SBC Tournament as Georgia State has the tiebreaker. The Eagles have already beaten Troy on the road, 86-80 in a game the oddsmakers had as a pick 'em. Therefore, it would appear there's substantial value on them as a short home favorite today. Lay the points. 

Ga Southern is 9-3 SU at home this year, one of the losses coming to Louisiana and the other two by a combined three points. They average a healthy 83.7 PPG and have had no problems scoring recently as they are off B2B 81-pt efforts. They didn't even shoot particularly well Thursday vs. South Alabama, yet still basically led wire to wire. Not only are the Eagles trying to finish second in the SBC, but they're trying to avoid finishing fourth as UT-Arlington is just one-half game behind them after winning at the buzzer last night. The Sun Belt always has teams playing either twice at home or twice on the road in the weekly Thursday-Saturday schedule. This obviously tends to favor the home side in the second leg and sure enough Troy has yet to win a second leg this year (0-3 w/ two double digit losses). 

In the first meeting, neither side shot particularly well yet Ga Southern was able to emerge w/ a six-point road win even after trailing at halftime. They actually enjoyed an edge in FT attempts as the road team. It was actually the conference opener for both. Though over two months, I'm not sure a ton has changed for either side. Troy is trying to finish 5th in the standings, but that distinction means little as they're playing an opening round game regardless. Really, Ga Southern finishing third is the key here as they'd avoid a matchup w/ Louisiana until the finals. Troy did pull the upset Thursday, but that was w/ an incredible second half that won't be duplicated here. I just can't see them beating two of the top three teams in the SBC, both on the road, in a three-day span. 8* Ga Southern 

8* Portland State (4:00 ET): We head out to Big Sky country for this one where the fight for seeding in the conference tournament is still ongoing. Portland State stll can finish in sixth if they were to win here and Idaho State loses to reg season champ Montana (which is a good possibility). Granted, either way, the Vikings will be playing an opening round game, but getting a bottom two team as the first tournament opponent would certainly be ideal. These teams have not met this season, but Portland State still has double revenge on its mind from LY as they lost both meetings w/ North Dakota, including one in the conference tournament. Lay the points. 

On Senior Day, Portland State will be looking to bounce back from a home defeat to Northern Colorado. It was the Vikings' first regulation loss since falling to Montana back on Feb 8th. They had no answer for Andre Speight (scored 37 points), but were within one w/ just under two minutes remaining. While not a dominant home team per se, I don't see PSU dropping B2B games here to end the regular season. It's strange because the Vikings are 10-5 SU on the road this year, but only 7-5 SU at home. This despite the fact they are averaging 92.5 PPG at home! Now that number is somewhat skewed due to three wins over non-board teams. But still, this is a team that put up 106 pts in 25-pt road win over Cal earlier this year! They also beat Stanford. They lost by only on a neutral floor to Butler. The Vikings have the potential to be a dangerous sleeper next week in the Big Sky Tournament.

While Portland State is off a home loss, North Dakota is off a road win. They beat lousy Sacramento State 90-73 on Thursday as two-point underdogs. It speaks volumes that the Fighting Hawks would be underdogs to a Sacramento State team that is just 6-24 SU overall, even on the road. It was the Fighting Hawks' third win in the last four games, but the other two were both by five points or less, one of them in overtime. The Hawks have not been good on the road this year, going just 2-12 SU in "true" roadies and they're giving up an average of 90.1 PPG. That doesn't bode well when getting set to face an opponent that is #3 in the NATION in points per game. 8* Portland State

10* Florida State (2:00 ET): The Seminoles are looking to bounce back from crushing double-digit defeats at the hands of NC State and Clemson over the last week. Those losses really put a damper on the 'Noles' NCAA Tournament hopes. If you believe those in the "Bracketology game," then FSU is still likely to make the field of 68, but a third straight loss could change that and they also have to avoid an early exit in the ACC Tournament. Today marks not on the regular season finale, but it's Senior Day in Talahassee and a revenge game to boot. Boston College upset the 'Noles, 81-75 (+3.5) up in Chesnut Hill in late January. So there's a number of things that have conspired to drive the line down further than it ought to be. Lay the points. 

FSU is actually 0-6 ATS its last six games w/ four of those also being straight up defeats (three by double digits). But only one of the losses came here at home and that was by four to a very good Virginia team. Overall, the Seminoles are 12-2 SU in Talahassee and averaging an impressive 87.6 points per game. They are typically a good rebounding squad, but were outworked on the boards by Clemson Wednesday. Getting back to the revenge angle, the 'Noles are 4-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a road loss. Boston College has only three victories away from home this season and just two of them came in "true" road games.

B.C. is coming off an impressive 15-pt victory over Syracuse on Wednesday, but that was at home. That snapped an overall three-game losing streak. But not all the news was good as freshman forward Steffon Mitchell left w/ a hamstring injury and was on crutches after the game. I do not expect the Eagles to go 14 of 27 from behind the arc again like they did vs. Syracuse. It is Florida State that ranks in the top 25 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). B.C. has just one ACC road win this year and it came against last place Pitt. In the first meeting between these two, the Seminoles shot just 33% from the field, including a dreadful 5 of 26 from three-point range. Obviously, they'll be much improved on Saturday afternoon. 10* Florida State 

8* Detroit (5:30 ET): Some major revenge here from the Titans persepective as they were humiliated in their home finale last Saturday, losing to Green Bay by a score of 107-97. They trailed 61-36 at halftime before making things look slightly more respectable by the final buzzer. Full disclosure - I was on Detroit last Saturday. I'm going to come back w/ them today in this 1st rd Horizon League Tourney matchup as the spot is good as is the price. Earlier in the week, my 1st Conf Tourney play was on a Robert Morris team playing w/ double revenge from the regular season and they won the rubber match outright (as a dog). I expect the same result here. Take the points.

Green Bay shot 56% from the floor last Saturday and made 13 three-pointers. At one point, they led by as many as 29 points. That's quite the embarrassing way to end the regular season if you're Detroit, especially considering they'd just lost by 23 (at home) in their previous game. At some point, pride has to kick in, no? The likelihood of Green Bay playing as well here as they did Saturday seems unlikely. While this is technically considered a "neutral site game," note the tournament is being played in Detroit (at Little Ceasar's Arena, home of the NBA's Pistons), so you do have to give the Titans a bit of a home court edge in handicapping this matchup. Green Bay had zero road wins before the final week of the regular season when they upset not only Detroit, but Oakland as well.

  Therefore, it's difficult to imagine the Phoenix winning three in a row away from home, right? Tonight marks just the fourth time all season that GB has won B2B games. They have gone 0-3 SU the next time out after the previous three times, meaning there's never been a single three-game win streak for them. Tonight marks just the SIXTH time all season that the Phoenix will be favored. Now, it's clear that Detroit has its own issues, but the Titans have to come in motivated here. They are the de facto host of this event, so that's something. Also, despite the last place finish in the regular season, I do NOT believe the Titans are the worst team in the Horizon League. (That dubious distinction will go to the loser of tonight's Cleveland St-Youngstown St matchup). 8* Detroit

8* UAB (8:00 ET): Here we find two teams jockeying for position in the upcoming Conference USA Tournament. Marshall is guaranteed a top five spot right now, but they'd obviously like to move up a spot considering the top four get 1st round byes. Right now, they are in fourth place (one game ahead of UTSA), so they'd obviously like to win out to preserve their current standing. Problem is the Thundering Herd's last two games are on the road where they are just 5-7 straight up and giving up 83.9 PPG. Tonight finds them at UAB, who is 12-3 SU at home where they outscore opponents by 14.4 PPG. Marshall is off a big win while UAB is off a big loss, which is what has created the value here in laying the points. I'm on the Blazers. 

Marshall pummelled Charlotte on Saturday, winning 103-75, but that's the last place team in the conference they were facing there. The Herd is closing the reg season strong w/ wins in six of the last seven contests, the lone loss coming at Old Dominion, which will prevent them from finishing any higher than fourth in the C-USA standings. Note that Marshall has done a great job at beating the teams that they "should" (15-2 SU as a favorite). But when not expected to prevail, the results aren't very good. They're just 2-7 SU as a dog. Something else that caught my eye when handicapping this game is the line from the first meeting. Marshall was only a one-point favoite when they beat UAB 86-78 back on January 20th. It stands to reason then that the line should be higher for tonight's rematch. (It opened low and we've already seen it get bet up). 

In that first meeting, it was the free throw line that burned UAB. Marshall went 18 for 18 at the charity stripe while UAB was a head-scratching 5 of 13! It's not as if the Blazers are a poor FT shooting team. For the year, they make a solid 74.8%. So I'm not sure what was going on that night. Also, the three-point line was huge in that outcome as Marshall went 14 of 37 from behind the arc while UAB was 7 of 23. Consider that the Thundering Herd were only 13 of 35, almost 33.3% on two-point attempts and still won the game! That won't happen again here, especially because the Blazers are allowing opponents to shoot only 40.3% overall this season and allowing just 63.0 PPG at home. Offensively, UAB had a horrendous shooting night at Middle Tennessee on Saturday. It was the third time in the last five games they shot below 36.5% from the field. But they came back and won after the previous two and will do that again here. 8* UAB

10* Charlotte U (7:30 ET): Let's get something out of the way, right off the bat. Charlotte is not a good team. All it takes to confirm that is quick perusal of the C-USA standings where you'll find the 49ers smack-dab at the bottom w/ a 1-15 SU record vs. league foes. They're also a pretty sad 5-22 SU overall. Their one C-USA win came all the way back on January 4th when a last second layup allowed them to defeat North Texas, 70-68 as 7.5-pt home underdogs. Since then, it's been 14 consecutive losses and counting. If they are to win another one, tonight looks to be the night as they are hosting a FIU team that isn't particularly good, yet is coming in off B2B victories (by a combined four points). This is a great spot to fade the road chalk.

Generally speaking, most of FIU's recent games have been close affairs. Only two of the last eight have been decided by more than six points and both were losses. Each of their last three wins have all come by three points or less and all three took place at home. The Panthers' last road win came all the way back on January 11th at UTSA and you guessed it, it was a three-point margin of victory. It's a little stunning to see this team as a road favorite, even as bad as Charlotte has been for much of 2018. The Panthers were road favorites one time previous to this and lost outright to Rice, who is 3-13 SU in C-USA play. They are only 2-8 SU in "true" road games all season. Only one time this year has FIU won three in a row and that streak included a win over a non-board team back in December. 

Charlotte was not competitive - at all - in a pair of losses last week as they lost by 38 and 28 to Marshall and Western Kentucky respectively. But at some point, pride has to kick in. This isn't the final home game (Saturday vs. FAU is), but I still expected a motivated home dog here. Note FIU did trail at the half in each of the last two wins. Charlotte's defense has been shredded by some of the top teams in C-USA recently, but I can't see FIU doing the same as they are a dreadful three-point shooting team (29.0% on the road!) and might be the worst FT shooting team in the entire country as well (59.3% for the year!). I look for the 49ers to "show up" this week, starting tonight. 10* Charlotte

10* Robert Morris (7:00 ET): This is a 1st round matchup in the Northeast Conference (#2 vs. #7 seed) w/ RMU going for revenge as they lost here only six days ago, by the lopsided score of 72-53. In fact, the Colonials have double revenge as they were also blown out at home by MSM, 67-42, back on Feb 1st. My intuition tells me the third time may very well be the charm for Robert Morris and at the very least this game is going to be a lot closer. Granted, RMU didn't exactly have a sterling end to the regular season as they've dropped three in a row. Meanwhile, Mt. St. Mary's has won three straight. But the head to head results from the reg season aren't indicative of the true gap between these teams, which is a lot smaller than you think. Take the points. 

It's been awhile since Robert Morris beat their NEC rivals. They've lost all seven matchups the L3 seasons, including the two blowouts this year. But even after dropping seven of their last night, I can make the case that the Colonials are the best of the bottom four in the NEC. They've been outscored by less than two points per game on the year and are a respectable 9-10 SU away from home. They were outscored by just over a point in conference play. Tiebreakers are what made this the 2 vs.7 (seed) matchup in the quarterfinals as RMU actually finished tied for the fourth best overall SU record among NEC teams. Meanwhile, Mt. St. Mary's was third, just three games better than the Colonials.

RMU did not shoot the ball well - at all - when they hosted MSM in the regular season. We're talking a 29.8 FG% including a horrendous 3 of 21 from three-point range. They were better in the rematch, but so was MSM. The Mountaineers do have the NEC Player of the Year on their roster, Junior Robinson, but I'm going to question how they'll respond after a huge win over top seed Wagner in the reg season finale. Yes, MSM has lost only two of its last 10 games and those losses were by a combined three points. But it's very hard to beat the same team three times in the same season, let alone a month, so taking the points is the way to go in this winner take all matchup. 10* Robert Morris

8* Creighton (9:00 ET): The only reason I can think of as to why this line opened so low is that the oddsmakers are expecting some sort of letdown from Creighton after they upset Villanova on Saturday. But a letdown is something the Blue Jays simply cannot afford right now going into the BIg East Tournament. Obviously, 'Nova and Xavier are the two teams to beat in this league (both ranked in the top four nationally). However, Creighton probably has as legit a claim as anybody to being the third best Big East team.  That being said, they enter Tuesday in a four-way tie for third (w/ Seton Hall, Butler and Providence) at 9-7 SU in conference play. Winning out would thus be a very big deal for the Bluejays.

On the other hand, DePaul, will be one of the bottom four teams forced to play an Opening Rd game next week in NYC. The Blue Demons are 4-12 SU in Big East play, one game ahead of last place St. John's. Considering they have this game, followed by Xavier, the chances of them losing out seem pretty high. Now, like Creighton, DePaul is off a SU win as a home dog. They beat Marquette Saturday, 70-62 (were getting 3 pts). There were two huge factors in the Blue Demons pulling off that upset. One was rebounding as a 49-30 advantage on the boards led to a 15-4 edge in second chance points. The other was free throw shooting. While Marquette attempted only nine free throws the entire game, DePaul had 32. I don't see either edge being present tonight. 

Creighton isn't ranked in the AP Poll (#24 in Coaches), but I have them among my Top 25 teams in the country. They had lost two in a row and four of six heading into Saturday, but beating Villanova all but clinches their spot in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, they needed overtime on Saturday after trailing by eight w/ only 4:30 to go. But consider they had learned earlier in the day that starting forward Ronnie Harrell, Jr would be out w/ a foot infection. (He could return here). The Bluejays shot the ball much better than did Villanova as well, which is impressive when you consider how efficient Nova's offense has been. But, maybe we shouldn't have been surprised as Creighton averages over 90 PPG at home (shooting 52.9%). I know it was only a one-point win over DePaul the first time (which came directly after a 20-pt LOSS to 'Nova), but consider the line value we're getting. The Bluejays were seven-point favorites on the ROAD that game. Lay it! 8* Creighton

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): The Golden Flashes play their final home game tonight and have legit revenge for an 11-point loss down in Oxford in January. That 1st meeting w/ Miami saw the RedHawks shoot nearly 52% from the field, including 10 of 25 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Kent State could only manage to shoot 5 for 18 from "downtown." A change in venue should lead to a change in result however, and it certainly helps that we're getting some added value on the home team tonight. That can be attributed to the fact that Miami is off B2B upsets, the last one coming at Akron on Saturday. I can't see the RedHawks winning B2B road games, even though they are a somewhat shocking 10-4 ATS on the road this season. Lay the points.

Kent State has been favored only seven times this season, but has won six of those games straight up. They did just fail to cover Saturday, hosting Bowling Green, as that was a 64-63 final w/ a 4.5-pt spread. That game certainly could have gone either way as there were five lead changes in the final minute alone as the Golden Flashes needed two free throws in the final four seconds to secure the win. However, I was impressed by the Flashes winning in spite of some poor shooting. Interestingly enough, their two lowest scoring efforts of February both came against Bowling Green. They're only 2-5 SU and ATS this month overall, but their home record is still 11-3 SU for the season. On Senior Night, I expected a highly motivated performance.

There's a good chance that the winner of this game will be finishing in 2nd place in the MAC East. If Miami wins, that is guaranteed. There is a chance (for both teams) that a 2nd place finish would give them a bye into the quarterfinals of the MAC Tourney in Cleveland next week. Kent State knows it can play better than it did the first time vs. Miami when they trailed by 23 pts at halftime. Defense was huge against Bowling Green Saturday as they held the Falcons to a 33.8 FG% (lowest this year vs. any D-I opponent) and set a program record w/ 11 blocked shots. I think defense will be big again here. Miami is only shooting 40.8% from the field its last five games. Their win Saturday over Akron required OT and was 51-51 at the end of regulation (they trailed 31-17 at halftime!). That was also the RedHawks' second OT game in the L10 days. They may be "out of gas" here. 10* Kent State

8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): In the final home game of the year, Va Tech will host Duke. The Blue Devils will almost certainly improve upon their #5 ranking when the new poll comes out later in the day. That's because not only did #3 Villanova lose Saturday, but Coach K's team has won and covered five straight. They're certainly in play for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they were to win the final two regular season games and the ACC Tournament. As per usual, Duke will close its regular season vs. North Carolina. (That game will be in Cameron). Virginia Tech's status is a lot more precarious after they lost here in Blacksburg to Louisville on Saturday. The Hokies could really use a marquee win and I'll take the points. 

It actually wasn't long ago that these squads last met. It was Valentine's Day in Cameron and needless to say, Duke wasn't in a very "loving mood" as they waxed the Hokies 74-52 as 10.5-pt chalk. But this is obviously a road game and four of the Blue Devils' five losses this season have come on the road. A big part of that is the fact they give up 79.6 PPG away from home. Now Marvin Bagley III is set to return Monday. But it's not as if the Blue Devils appeared to miss the ACC's leading scorer/rebounder. Might his return actually have a short-term adverse effect on the team as they work to integrate him back into the offense? It's certainly possible. 

Va Tech is a strong 6-1 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss of 20+ points. That includes a 2-0 mark this season. Furthermore, they attempted only four free throws in the first meeting. Duke went zone for the entire duration of that first meeting, something that caught the Hokies' coaching staff off-guard. It also didn't help that leading scorer Justin Robinson battled foul trouble much of the contest. The Hokies are a strong home team (13-4 SU overall, outscoring teams by about 15 PPG). Last week saw them beat a top 15 team (Clemson) here. Yes, they lost to Louisville, but the three-point line was a big difference in that one to a degree I don't believe will be present here. The Hokies actually shoot the ball better than Duke, both from two-point and three-point range. At home, they're shooting an incredible 52.2 percent. 8* Virginia Tech 

10* Connecticut (4:00 ET): Both of these once-proud programs have fallen on hard times. So it will be little on the line with the exception of pride Sunday afternoon. Pride is something that seems to be severely lacking in Storrs right now where UConn is coming off a 25-point loss at Cincinnati earlier in the week. But that was hardly a great spot for the Huskies as not only were they facing a legit Top 10 team on the road, but the Bearcats were also angry, off a loss. UConn has just two wins in its last eight games and those have come by a total of seven points over South Florida and East Carolina. But this is a huge revenge spot for them as they were humiliated down in Memphis back in January, losing 73-49 as three-point dogs. Lay the points.

That same night (Thursday) that UConn was being blown out in Cincy, Memphis was recording perhaps its most impressive victory of the season as they beat Houston 91-85 as six-point home dogs. It was the Tigers' third consecutive victory, all of those coming as underdogs. The other two were at SMU and Tulane. Note, however, that all three wins were by six points or less. Beating a ranked squad like Houston is nice, but note the Tigers did trail by as many as 13 in the contest. A lot of that can be attributed to the fact Houston shot only 32.3% from the field in the second half. Meanwhile, Memphis shot 61% in the 2H. Also, the Tigers were quite fortunate in that UH (one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country) went just 11 of 29 from behind the arc.

However, and this is a really big deal, not all the news for Memphis was good coming out of the Houston game. Starting point guard Jeremiah Martin broke his left foot, which will require surgery, so he's done for the season. That's a huge loss as the team was just starting to build some momentum. Martin was leading the AAC in both points (18.9) and steals (2.3) per game. As for UConn, a five-game ATS skid is due to end. They get back their leading scorer, Jalen Adams, who missed the Cincinnati game due to the flu. Without him, the Huskies simply never got going against a superior opponent and it didn't help that they got only five points total from the bench. This game takes place in Gampel Pavillion where UConn is 6-1 SU this season. 10* Connecticut

10* Florida (8:30 ET): The Gators have now lost three in a row and its getting harder and harder for me to justify calling this a top 25 team. Now, it should be pointed out that all three losses have been by five points or less. Wednesday, it was a poor shooting night at Tennessee (35.0%) that cost them in a 62-57 loss. Things get no easier tonight as they face the SEC's other "surprise" team, that being Auburn, who leads the conference w/ a 12-3 SU record. The Tigers are 24-4 SU overall and coming off a dominant 90-71 win over rival Alabama. That was a nice bounce back from a loss in their last road game, at South Carolina. I know it seems as if these teams are trending in opposite directions, but I'm on Florida here.

Auburn has certainly had little to no success vs. Florida through the years, particularly in Gainesville. They are 3-23 SU the L26 head to head matchups, including an 0-11 SU mark in Gainesville. So that's a lot of history going against them. Now there's no denying the job Bruce Pearl has done here and that this isn't your typical Auburn squad. Picked to finish 9th in the SEC back in the preseason, the Tigers instead can now clinch at least a share of the regular season crown w/ one more victory. The fact they have pulled this off despite losing two contributors that were projected to be key (before the season even started) is stunning. But now we're starting to see even more attrition. Only eight players suited up against 'Bama as Anfernee McLemore was lost for the season (ankle) in the South Carolina game and Mustapha Heron (second leading scorer) is battling the flu (questionable for tonight). It's obviously difficult to win on the road w/ such a short rotation. 

For Florida, it's all about tonight as they are desperate for a win. They have shockingly dropped three of their last five home games, all as favorites of nine points or greater. The last two losses came on the road, however. They led Vandy at the half, but came out very slow at Tennessee. Something to keep in mind though is that this is the same team that went to South Carolina two weeks ago and won by 24. That's the same South Carolina team that upset Auburn last Saturday. I believe tonight is a breakout game for the Gators. 10* Florida

8* Oklahoma (6:15 ET): Given that it was a little over a month ago that the Sooners came in FAVORED at Kansas State, this line sure looks a "steal," doesn't it? Now, I fully recognize there are substantial reasons that the oddsmakers have adjusted so dramatically for the rematch. One is that Kansas State won that 1st meeting by 18 points. The other is that OU has essentially gone down the tubes ever since. Their losing streak reached six games on Monday w/ a humiliating 30-pt setback in Lawrence (to Kansas) that leaves them at only 16-11 SU for the year. Their status as a NCAA Tournament team seems secure, but losing 9 of 12 overall certainly is not a good look. Monday aside, many of those losses have been close.

Kansas State has won and covered three in a row and is 9-4 ATS its L13 games overall. The Wildcats beat Texas on Wednesday, in Manhattan, 58-48 as the Longhorns shot a woeful 28.6% from the field, including 2 of 18 from three-point range. What's interesting about the Wildcats' three game win streak is the last two games were both at home and they were tied at the half. So it's not exactly been a dominant streak we're talking about here. They are only 1-5 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or fewer the previous game. I see the chances for defensive regression being high as they've held the L5 opponents to 40.3% shooting, but for the year, that number jumps substantially away from home as do the number of pts allowed.

You have to remember that there was a time where OU was the talk of College Basketball w/ freshman Trae Young drawing Steph Curry comparisons. I always thought that was a case of putting the cart before the horse and truthfully I'm not shocked the Sooners have regressed (many projection models did not like them even when they were winning). But we've now reached a point where their value could not possibly be lower. What happened Monday (on national TV) was downright humiliating and they've had two more days to prepare than Kansas State did here. The Sooners are still 11-2 SU here in Norman where they average a whopping 93.2 points per game. This has to turn around, right? 8* Oklahoma 

8* Detroit (2:00 ET): This is a regular season finale out in the Horizon League and most likely Detroit's last shot at achieving something meaningful in 2018. The Titans enter Saturday's game w/ an 8-22 SU overall record and are off an ugly 72-49 loss to Milwaukee on Thursday, which took place here at home. A 4-13 conference record has them in last place in the Horizon, but today they honor the seniors in this the final home game. Catching Green Bay just two days after they upended Oakland (as 11.5-pt road dogs) seems advantageous as there's no doubt in my mind which will be the more motivated side here. Lay the points.

The first matchup between these two this season took place all the way back on 12.28. Green Bay won 95-83, but I think it's worth noting they were only 3.5-pt favorites at home. So there has been somewhat of an adjustment from the linesmakers here. The difference in that first meeting was simply the Phoenix taking and making more shots. The number of three-pointers made and FT's attempted were actually identical. But GB had 12 more shot attempts overall and made five more. They also had only nine turnovers compared to 15 for Detroit. None of these things necessarily are likely to repeat themselves, especially w/ the Phoenix now out on the road where they are 1-13 SU this season, allowing 82.1 points per game.

This being the Titans' final home game, there should obviously be some level of motivation present in the locker room. Especially after being blown out here two nights ago. It was a terrible second half, one which they were outscored 40-24. Shooting only 28.6% from the field, over the course of a full game, is hard to do. But the Titans did it Thursday. This is a team that averages over 80 PPG at home, so I expect a massive increase in offensive production this afternoon. This is a team w/ four double digits scorers, mind you. As for Green Bay, they upset Oakland on Thursday due in large part to a career-high 36 pts from Sandy Cohen III. That won't happen again. Nor will the team be able to shoot a collective 57% from the floor again. Something to note from that game is the Phoenix trailed by seven w/ just over four minutes remaining. The win snapped a four-game losing streak as well. 8* Detroit

8* Iona (9:00 ET): Iona has lost B2B games, both as favorites, and this is their final one at home this season. Therefore, I expect a pretty motivated side here tonight. The line is certainly "curious" here when you consider the Gaels beat Manhattan on a neutral floor back in January and did so, 78-65 as seven-point favorites. Now we're getting the same line at home? Sign me up! Iona can sew up a top four finish in the MAAC w/ a win tonight and third place (one-half game back) is certainly within reach. Finishing top three has its advantages for the postseason tournament as you not only draw a bye (top five teams do), but you also get to face an opponent that had to play a 1st rd game two days earlier. I'll lay the points here.

Manhattan is off a win here, 82-72 over Niagara, but this situation has NOT treated them well most of this season. The Jaspers season has been every bit as mediocre as their record indicates (13-15 SU overall, 8-8 MAAC) as they've only posted B2B wins three times and never won three in a row. Granted, their last three losses have all come by four points or less and they haven't lost a conference game by double digits since 1.5 at Monmouth. But I would not look for a repeat of what the Jaspers were able to do offensively to Niagara on Sunday. While team's last two home games have produced their highest two point totals in conference play, Manhattan still only averages 68.6 PPG for the season and 65.8 PPG on the road.

Iona is a high scoring team that averages 79.5 PPG. Their B2B losses have been by a combined five points. They lost by one to Niagara on Friday despite the Purple Eagles losing second leading scorer Mike Scott to injury. Two days later, Manhattan did not have to worry about defending Scott as he was out. There's a bit of a "hidden edge" for Iona here as they've had two extra days to prepare. Not sure they even need it though as the Gaels were able to down the Jaspers by 13 out in Long Island last month. Iona shot very well in that game (54.5 FG%) and that was before Manhattan lost a key rotational player, Aaron Walker Jr, who has since quit the team. Iona has owned Manhattan the L3 seasons, winning and covering all five meetings. They're better rested and more motivated and this line looks like a steal. 8* Iona 

10* St. Mary's (10:00 ET): Pepperdine has had some success recently, at the pay window only, cashing two in a row as double digit dogs. But the fact remains this is a very bad basketball team, one w/ a 4-24 overall SU record that has yet to win a single time away from home (0-13 SU) and is just 1-15 SU in conference play. Tonight, the Waves find themselves in the unenviable position of having to fact St. Mary's, after just playing at Gonzaga last weekend. Full disclosure, I laid the big number w/ Gonzaga on Saturday and they never really came close to covering the 25-pt spread. However, we're getting some additional value on St. Mary's b/c of that and once again, I'll call for a bad team to get blown out. Lay it!

St. Mary's has seemingly yet to recover from losing to Gonzaga (here at home) earlier this month. The Gaels entered that game w/ an unbeaten home record and unbeaten conference record. Both were blemished by a Zags team that I was on, in a 78-65 "upset." St. Mary's would then go out and lose its next game (at San Francisco), 70-63 as nine-point favorites. They finally got back in the win column last Saturday, winning at Portland by 12 points, but again failed to cover. Starting guard Emmett Naar also left the game because of an ankle injury and did not return. But he's listed as probable to play tonight and I'm not sure the Gaels would even need him given the opposition. 

Pepperdine's lone WCC win came by a single point over ninth place Loyola Marymount (this is a 10-team league). They are very bad defensively, giving up over 80 PPG on the season. As I mentioned in the analysis for the Gonzaga game, they are playing for a lame duck head coach as it's already been announced Marty Wilson will not return next year. Since that announcement, the team has played tough, covering not only against Gonzaga, but also taking BYU into overtime. But playing the top three teams in the league, all in a row, is certainly not desirable. St. Mary's is already outscoring visitors by 16.5 PPG and virtually all of those opponents are better than this one. The Gaels already beat Pepperdine once this year, by 17 on the road, and there's no reason NOT to believe it won't be a larger MOV at home. 10* St. Mary's

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): According to bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Washington is currently among the first four out in the latest projections. That's a precarious place to be, but in my estimation, the Huskies should feel fortunate to even be in that spot as in my own personal power rankings, they're just outside the top 100. That's a few slots behind tonight's opponent, Stanford, who isn't even under any legit NCAA Tournament consideration. This weekend marks the final home games in Palo Alto this season w/ the Cardinal hosting the two Washington schools. A strong finish to the regular season could definitely improve their standing in the upcoming Pac 12 Tourney as a fourth place finish is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. I'll lay the points w/ the better team playing at home here. 

Both teams split their pair of games last week. But the difference is Washington played twice at home while Stanford was on the road for both games. The Huskies lost to Utah last Thursday, 70-58, but then bounced back w/ a big 82-59 win over Colorado. Stanford lost at Colorado on Thursday, but was able to bounce back by beating Cal 77-73 as five-point chalk. Curiously, given Cal's last place standing in the conference, the smart money moved against the Cardinal in that one and proved to be correct for doing so. Stanford is on a three-game ATS losing skid overall, but all three games were on the road. At home, they're 11-5 straight up. 

Adding to the case for Stanford here is the fact they already beat UW up in Seattle last month. It was a 73-64 final where the Cardinal came in as a 4.5-pt underdog. Washington did not shoot well in that game, connecting on only 37.5% overall, including 5 of 22 from three-point range. Normally, there might be an expectation of an improved offensive performance in the rematch, but not on the road. The Huskies' last two road games resulted in a 25-pt loss to Oregon and a loss (in double overtime) to Oregon State. The Oregon loss saw them score only 40 pts in a truly putrid performance. As for Stanford, the last time they were at home, they beat Oregon by 35 points! So homecourt advantage definitely plays a significant role in handicapping this matchup. Stanford has lost only two Pac 12 home games (one vs. Arizona) and those two losses were by a combined five points. 8* Stanford

8* Nevada (10:00 ET): The class of the Mountain West, Nevada, can pretty much "name its score" here as they host the last place team in the conference, that being San Jose State. The Wolfpack have climbed into the the Top 25 (currently #20) thanks to three straights wins and covers. The most recent was Saturday when they won at Utah State, 93-87, shooting 59.3% from the field. I may be a little more skeptical of their chances for success next month, but there are computer systems (such as KenPom) that essentially agree w/ the pollsters. Where there is no debate is the fact they are head and shoulders above the rest of the Mt West. They are 12-2 SU in conference play, outscoring opponents by a healthy margin. Lay the big number here. 

San Jose State, meanwhile, has yet to even win a single conference game this season. They are 0-14 straight up, losing by an average of 14.6 points per game. Keep in mind that the majority of teams in the Mt. West are nowhere near as good as Nevada. In the first meeting of the season, Nevada beat SJSU by 17, 71-54, and that was on the road. The Spartans weren't actually as fortunate to cover as you might think as they even led at the half! However, that game marked (at the time) season lows for Nevada in point scored (24), field goals made (8) and shooting percentage (26.7%) in a half (all in the 1st). There is no basis to claim SJSU is capable of holding Nevada "in check" like that again. Note only one of the Spartans' losses on the conference road this year did not come by double digits. That loss was by nine points at UNLV. 

Nevada is 12-1 SU in Reno this season, its only loss coming at the hands of TCU, who was ranked #20 at the time. Over the last week, they recorded a pair of road wins (over Boise State and Utah State) and both are tough places to play (hence the relatively small MOV). Ranked #11 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom), the Wolfpack average 85.3 points per game at home. San Jose State is already giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play coming into tonight. So I expect the Wolfpack to "blow by" the 71 pts they scored in the first meeting. San Jose State is 1-12 SU on the road this year (-13.5 PPG). Nevada has covered 28 of its last 42 home games. 8* Nevada

10* Pittsburgh (9:00 ET): This season has been a complete disaster for once powerful Pitt. Not only are they 8-20 SU overall, but they're also winless in ACC play (0-15 SU!). Things have gotten really dire recently w/ six consecutive double digits losses, four of those coming by at least 23 points. Tonight, they host the second worst team in the conference in what is their last realistic shot at achieving a conference victory in 2018. Now, we do know the Panthers are significantly worse than the field in the ACC. But are they this much worse than Wake Forest? I don't think so. The Demon Deacons, just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year, being favored by this many away from home is pretty much unprecedented. Take the points.

Wake has won only three ACC games this season and all were in Winston-Salem. The most recent came last week, 79-62 over Georgia Tech, who is third from the bottom in the league. The Demon Deacons then resumed their losing ways on Saturday as they fell to NC State (as a favorite?!), 90-84, and trailed by double digits for much of the second half. Given the line (-2.5), obviously it was a home game. The road, particularly the conference road, has been quite unkind this season. They are 0-7 SU in ACC road games and while only two of those losses have come by double digits (Duke, Louisville), it's a whole different dynamic w/ the Demon Deacons being favored here. This is a team being outscored by almost six points per game in conference play and they're favored on the road, prohibitively so. Not sure I've ever seen such a thing.

Now obviously, there's not a whole lot of positive spin for Pitt here. Their last win occurred all the way back on 12.22 against Towson. However, I will point out they are at least a respectable 7-9 SU at home, which is where all but one of their wins this season have come. Defensively, they've been a lot better here. The Panthers showed some fight over the weekend against Florida State, even leading at the half (on the road!). But they couldn't overcome a foul trouble and a corresponding disparity at the FT line where the Seminoles had 18 more attempts. Make no mistake about it - this is a play AGAINST WF, who simply should not be favored by this many on the road, no matter the opponent. 10* Pittsburgh

8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Going into Friday, Rhode Island had the nation's longest win streak and was one of two teams in the country that could still claim to having a perfect (SU) conference record. Well, both of those things are no more after losing to St. Bonaventure, 77-74 as two-point favorites. Tonight is a tricky spot as they're a road fave for a second straight game and laying a pretty big number to boot. LaSalle has certainly had its fair share of struggles at the pay window this season (8-16-2 ATS overall), particularly of late as they've failed to cover 11 of their previous 12 games. But there's no denying the Explorers will be "up" for their biggest A-10 home game of the season. I'm taking the points as URI is primed for a letdown.

Before facing the Bonnies, Rhode Island had won 16 in a row. They remain ranked this week, at #18, but I think that's far too high as this isn't even one of the top 25 teams in the country (my opinion). They lost to St. Bonaventure despite holding them to 38.1% shooting. The A-10 is very weak this year as the only way it gets multiple bids in the NCAA Tournament is if someone besides URI wins the conference tourney. The Rams did beat LaSalle last month, but pushed as 12-pt favorites (won 74-62). Looking at that line for the first matchup, it's clear that the oddsmakers have adjusted. But why? It's not as if LaSalle was blown out the first time. I can only suspect that it's because the Rams are off a loss, and thus there's an anticipation of a "bounce back." But that's no guarantee.

There's also a key factor worth noting from that first matchup. LaSalle was w/o the A-10's leading scorer B.J. Johnson. He's been back for the L10 games and averaged 18.9 PPG. He's been in double figures all 10 games. For the year, Johnson averages 20.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. So his absence was definitely key to the Explorers losing by 12 in that first meeting. Since his return, the team is 4-1 SU at home. All four Rhode Island losses this season have come out on the road. Though they did not cover Saturday, LaSalle did win SU on Saturday, 69-62 over George Mason. They did have to rally from a 13-pt halftime deficit as GMU shot better than 60% in the 1H. Still, being able to win (by seven!) despite all that is impressive. 8* LaSalle.

10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): There's definitely been a bit of a "fall from grace" for A&M since SEC play began as the team is just 6-8 SU in games played in 2018. They are coming off B2B losses, both on the road, as short dogs to Missouri and Arkansas. Yet, they are still considered as a "safe bet" for the Big Dance next month and digging through the numbers, it's easy to see why. First off, they remain in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. That's something that can carry a team a long way in March. Secondly, there's a good chance they could be favored in each of their four remaining games. So even though they are an ugly NINTH in the SEC right now, look for that to improve by the end of the regular season. Lay the points here.

On Tuesday, it will be Mississippi State that comes calling to College Station. The Bulldogs just whacked rival Ole Miss on Saturday, 79-62 as 7.5-pt favorites, for their seventh consecutive cover. However, it hasn't exactly been the most challenging SEC gauntlet for them. They've avoided Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Arkansas, who collectively I believe are the top five teams in the conference. A&M would be 6th for me. Note that just one game separates third from eighth place in this league right now. Note that the win over Ole Miss did not come w/o some attrition. Aric Holman, one of the Bulldogs' three double digit scorers, injured his leg and is questionable to play tonight. His absence here would be significant.

Given A&M's defensive prowess, don't look for MSU to come anywhere close to shooting 56.4% like it did vs. Ole Miss. Visitors to College Station are shooting only 38.0% from the field this season. While they're 17-1 SU in Starkville, Mississippi State is only 2-7 SU otherwise (road/neutral site games) w/ one of those two wins coming at a neutral setting. A&M is outscoring opponents by 13.8 PPG at home so far. Saturday's loss at Arkansas was arguably the worst showing by the Aggies all season and something they'll be eager to bounce back from. Something else to note about A&M is that they are third in the country (1st in SEC) in rebounding margin. This is a team that won at Auburn less than two weeks ago and also beat Kentucky by 11 on this floor. They're simply a much better team than MSU. 10* Texas A&M

8* Akron (7:00 ET): We haven't checked in on the MAC much this season, but a quick glance at the standings reveals both divisions are essentially "sewn up" w/ Buffalo taking the East and Toledo likely to do the same in the West. Only one other team is above .500 in conference play and that's Ball State. So for Akron and Bowling Green, the only goal at this point is to win next month's conference tournament in Cleveland. Akron would also like a repeat of what they did to BG back on January 13th at the James A. Rhodes Arena and that's win. It was an 80-78 victory as 3.5-pt favorites. Curious that despite the non-cover, we've seen the line adjusted so much. As I'll get into, that has a lot to do w/ recent ATS performance, which we can exploit here. Take the points. 

Akron has won just one of its last seven games. They're also 1-5 ATS L6. But they also came into that 1st matchup w/ Bowling Green on a three-game losing streak. Overall, the Zips have really had the Falcons number, taking 26 of the last 28 meetings. This is considered a real "down year" in LeBron's hometown as this team is used to competing for MAC Championships. Saturday's 78-68 loss to rival Kent State was perhaps the most disappointing result of the year as the Zips shot just 39.1% from the floor and lost to a team that had dropped its four previous games. Incredibly, Akron has not won a single time away from home this season (0-12!), including 0-9 in "true" road games. But tonight they'll be facing a team that gives up plenty of points and is unaccustomed to the role of favorite. 

Bowling Green enters this game on a six-game ATS win streak. But they did lose Saturday, 95-82 to Buffalo (covered as 14-pt dogs). They trailed by as many as 17 in the 1H and had no answer for the Bulls defensively. Buffalo shot 60 percent from three-point range (12 of 20), essentially giving the Falcons little chance to catch up. Bowling Green is giving up 77.4 points per game this year, which is a lot (221st in points allowed), and it's worth noting that the only time they were favored in this 6-0 ATS stretch saw them -1 against Kent State. Overall, this will be just the fourth time that they are favored in MAC play this season and sixth time overall. After scoring 80+ pts the previous game, they are 1-4 ATS this season. 8* Akron

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): I think many of us knew that regression was coming for Oklahoma, we just didn't think it would be quite this severe. The Sooners lost their fifth consecutive game on Saturday, falling in Norman to rival Texas by a score of 77-66. It was their third time losing as a favorite during the streak. Even worse is OU has now failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games and is also 1-10 ATS its L11! All this sounds very bad as they head to Allen Fieldhouse on Monday, a place where they have not won at since 1993 when both schools were still apart of the Big 8 conference. The losing streak currently stands at 16 and counting. Not sure if OU can "right the ship" and win straight up here, but I do like them plus the points. 

One reason to like OU plus the points here is they already beat Kansas this year. Just last month, it was 85-80 in their favor down in Norman. Led by sensational freshman Trae Young's 26 points, they were able to rally back for the victory (trailed by as many as eight in the 2H). But there was also a strategy employed by HC Lon Krueger, reminiscent of the "hack a (insert poor free throw shooter's name here)" that we sometimes see in the NBA. It was done to Kansas' Udoka Azubuike, who ended up missing 7 of 8 FT's. Azubuike was much better from the charity stripe Saturday vs. WVU (also led the team w/ 21 pts), so it will be interesting to see how Krueger handles him tonight. One thing is for sure though and that's Young needs to get back on track. While he still leads the nation in scoring (29.1 PPG) and assists (9.3 per game), he's gone just 10 of 51 from three-point range the L5 games. I "smell" a bounce back. 

Kansas was very fortunate to get by West Virginia here on Saturday. The Jayhawks benefited from an almost unheard of 35-2 advantage in free throw attempts in an eight-point win. Unlike years' past, the Jayhawks have not been infallable here in Lawrence, already losing three times, including once to Oklahoma State. It's been almost exactly one month since KU won three in a row and they are 2-7 ATS this year off a Big 12 victory. The FT disparity they enjoyed vs. WVU was their largest EVER in a Big 12 game. They trailed that game by as many as 12 in the 2H and did not pull ahead by enough to cover (which they ended up doing) until the final minute of the game. 8* Oklahoma

10* Northern Kentucky (7:30 ET): Northern Kentucky figures to be in an ornery mood tonight when they hit the court for their final home game of the regular season. That's because the Norse, 19-8 SU on the season and co-leaders in the Horizon League, are off a two-point loss at Wright State on Friday. That result is what has those two teams tied atop the Horizon, each 12-3 SU in league play. Tonight's opponent - Youngstown State - is NOT in the mix for the regular season crown, in fact the Penguins are just 6-10 SU in league play and 8-21 SU overall. These teams met on the first of the month and while NKU won 95-85, they actually failed to cover as 11-pt road chalk. Still, that line suggests the number for tonight's home date should be a lot higher. Lay the points.

Northern Kentucky had won five in a row heading into the Wright State game. The final result is made even more disappointing by the fact Wright State also won the first meeting here in Highland Heights. For the season, that's one of only two home losses for the Norse, who now must deal w/ the fact they lose the tiebreak to Wright State. They are outscoring teams by an impressive 21.4 PPG here at home and when you couple that w/ Youngstown State's poor road mark, then the potential for a blowout is obviously there. YSU gives up a frightening number of points per game on the road (86.7!) w/ opponents shooting 52.4% against them. I see this as a clear "get well" spot for the home side. 

Playing its final home game when off a loss should be all the motivation the Norse need this evening. Then you throw in the fact the opponent is not a good team and that's why I'm willing to lay the big number here. Youngstown State is just 2-16 SU away from home this year while being outscored by roughly 16 PPG. That's against mostly inferior competition than what they'll face tonight. Friday saw the Penguins lose by 10 at home to Detroit, the last place team in the Horizon League. That snapped a two-game win streak, however, the Penguins have still allowed 80+ pts in six of the last seven games w/ three teams going over 90. Northern Kentucky holds teams to 38.1% shooting here at home. 10* Northern Kentucky

10* Purdue (8:00 ET): What on Earth has happened to the Boilermakers? It seems as if it wasn't even two weeks ago that they were considered among the consensus top three teams in America (alongside Villanova and Virginia) and poised to - easily - earn a top seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. But, suddenly and shockingly, they've dropped three in a row. Last week, they lost to Ohio State and Michigan State (the other top of the top three in the Big 10) by a combined four points. That was somewhat excusable even though the loss to OSU was at home and saw the Boilers blow a 14-pt second half advantage. But I was shocked to see them lose at Wisconsin on Thursday as 11-pt favorites. After all, this is the same team that had won 19 in a row prior to the current three-game skid. I'm still willing to lay the points in this spot.

While Purdue is looking to rebound tonight, Penn State is going to be avoiding any kind of letdown following a shockingly brilliant performance at home Thursday against Ohio State. The beat the Buckeyes 79-56 (were -1.5), completing a season sweep, and keep in mind those are the Buckeyes' only two Big 10 losses this season. Overall, the Nittany Lions have now won four in a row as they try and make their case that they belong among the field of 68 next month. As of right now, they still are not considered a safe bet to make it. A win here over Purdue would certainly go along way in changing that, but easier said than done. Ohio State is the lone ranked team PSU has defeated this season (non-conf schedule was weak) and Purdue is 14-1 SU at home, winning by an average margin of almost 25 PPG. 

I simply can't see Purdue losing a fourth straight game, nor at home again. This is clearly still a Top 5 team in America and I think they are #2 (behind only Villanova). They and Michigan State are the only two teams in the country to rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). In fact, Gonzaga is the only other team to rank in the top 20 in both. Penn State has not won a game here in West Lafayette since 2006. Once again on Thursday, the Boilermakers blew a 2H lead (led Wisconsin by 7). They easily could have won all three games during the losing streak. They take their frustrations out here on the Nittany Lions. 10* Purdue

8* Illinois (3:30 ET): Back on January 15th, Illinois lost a one-point game in Lincoln, NE (64-63), but still managed to cover the spread as four-point dogs. Fast forward to the present and Nebraska has covered in every game since, going an impressive 8-0 ATS. In fact, the Cornhuskers have one of the best ATS records in the country right now as they are 20-6 overall at the pay window, including covers in 16 of their last 17 lined contests. Still though, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team. By Big 10 standards, they've faced a relatively lackluster schedule w/ a 20-pt home win over Michigan being the exception to the rule. They are 0-4 SU against Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State, all of those losses coming on the road. 

Now Illinois most definitely is nowhere close to the upper echelon of the Big 10. As a matter of fact, they're in last place w/ a 2-12 SU conference record. Wednesday saw them suffer a fourth consecutive loss, 78-68 at Indiana, as the Hoosiers shot a ridiculous 59.1% from the floor. Poor three-point shooting certainly didn't help as the Illini went 1 for 12 from behind the arc. Also, they were just 20 of 30 from the free throw line. The 25 pts scored in the 1st half were a season-low, but the key number here is 75 as Illinois has not won a game all season when giving up that many points. Fortunate for them, Nebraska averages "only" 68.9 PPG on the road where they've been outscored for the season. The Illini are a somewhat surprising 11-5 SU at home and average 81.2 PPG here. 

In that first meeting, Illinois again shot poorly, making only 39.0% of its total shots, including 3 of 18 from three-point range. Yet they still only lost by one on the road. Seven of Nebraska's previous 11 games have been decided by six points or fewer, with five of those being wins, so the record really could look a lot different coming into this one. I happen to agree w/ the "experts" that this is NOT a Tourney team and its worth noting that more often than not, the Cornhuskers have been an underdog in Big 10 play. The current six-game win streak is their longest of the season and I see the "bubble bursting" (not necessarily permanently) today in what looks to be a tricky spot. This is Illinois' second to last home game and their best shot at a win (Purdue is final home game). 8* Illinois 

8* Tulsa (3:00 ET): Something that we need to get "out on the table" right away here is that USF is not a good team. The Bulls have dropped six straight and 13 of 14 overall here in conference play. That obviously has them in last place in the American and really there's no "light at the end of the tunnel" here. Back on Wednesday, they lost by 15 at UCF as the numbers continue to get uglier and uglier. This afternoon, they visit a Tulsa team that already beat them once this year - by nine points - despite shooting only 29.1% for the game! I can't remember the last time I saw a team shoot below 30% from the field and win. The Golden Hurricane not only won that Feb 4th meeting, they also covered as 7.5-pt road chalk. Now that they're the home team, I'm not sure as to why they're not favored by more. Lay the points.

There's a clear top three in the American (Cincinnati, Wichita St, Houston) and really a top two (sans Houston), if you want to be frank about it. But Tulsa is streaking its way into the fourth position thanks to a four-game win streak. That includes the win in Tampa two weeks ago, which has been followed up w/ a pair of two-point victories. Thursday, they upset UConn - in Storrs - as three-point road underdogs. That game saw the Golden Hurricane hit 11 three-pointers and shoot 55.3% overall from the field. Sterling Taplin led the way w/ a career-best 30 points. Despite not winning the rebounding battle against UConn (surprising), Tulsa is still +11.3 rebounds/game compared to its last three opponents. They were able to rally back from a nine-point halftime deficit as they swept UConn for the 1st time ever.

Now USF must contend w/ the fact Tulsa is a very good home team. The Golden Hurricane have covered 25 of their last 36 here at the Donald W. Reynolds Center and are 10-2 SU here this season, averaging 81.2 PPG. Meanwhile, USF is bad no matter where they play. They are being outscored by roughly 17 PPG by conference opponents and the road has been particularly unkind this year w/ a 2-9 SU record that has seen them get outscored by 17.3 PPG. This spread being several points under that average makes little sense to me as the Bulls are being outshot this season by an incredible margin and I project that to continue here. 8* Tulsa

8* Gonzaga (8:00 ET): Laying a number this large can potentially be pretty dangerous especially when you consider Gonzaga has NOT been very good at the pay window of late. To be fair though, a lot of that has to do w/ the fact that the WCC schedule - more often than not - isn't going to inspire them to the degree that the oddsmakers are calling for. At one point, they failed to cover eight consecutive games (but lost only one of them). However, I took them last Saturday in what was the biggest game of the year, a revenge spot at St. Mary's. They won there, 78-65, then followed that up w/ a 30-pt win Thursday vs. Loyola Marymount. I'm looking for them to make it B2B 30-pt wins now as Pepperdine is just terrible. Lay the points. 

Obviously, Gonzaga and St. Mary's are the class of the WCC. BYU has been a solid addition to the conference as well. After that, well, Gonzaga really doesn't lose to anybody else. Pepperdine is in last place in the WCC w/ a 1-14 SU record. The Waves come in at just 4-23 SU overall. The first time these teams met this year saw Gonzaga win by 30 on the road and they were "only" 24-pt favorites in that one. Using that as our baseline, this spread should pretty clearly be north of 30 pts. Over the previous 44 meetings, Gonzaga is 40-4 SU vs. Pepperdine, also going 30-12-2 ATS. That includes a 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS record at home. Each of the last three meetings have been decided by at least 30 points. 

Making matters more challenging for Pepperdine is that they are playing for a lame-duck head coach. It's already been announced Marty Wilson will not return next season, so I don't exactly see a lot of effort forthcoming. Yes, the team did play inspired at home against BYU on Thursday. Their last three losses have all been by six points or less. But once the inspiration runs out, there's little left here. The Waves' lone WCC win came by a single point. They shot a respectable 44.8% the first time against Gonzaga and still lost by 30. Gonzaga has held its last five opponents to 58.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead on Loyola Marymount Thursday w/ all five starters scoring before any LMU player scored. This is a complete mismatch in every sense of the word. 8* Gonzaga 

8* Hofstra (4:00 ET): We head down to the Colonial here, a conference which has lost much of its luster since the halcyon days of George Mason and VCU (both of whom bolted for the greener pastures of the Atlantic 10). Right now, it looks to be a two-team race between Charleston and Northeastern for the regular season crown, but don't count out a Hofstra squad that is lurking in the shadows and only a few games back. The Pride pulled into a third place tie w/ William & Mary by virtue of beating the Tribe on Thursday and scored 90 pts in the process. While they "only" won by six (were -4.5), Hofstra led by as many as 17 in the 1st half. It was the 2nd time in February that Hofstra scored at least 90 pts in a game. Lay the points.

Hofstra has shown they can beat teams in a variety of ways as not only have they twice scored 90 this month, but there's also been two recent wins where they held the opposition under 60 points. Given Drexel's defensive liabilities, I figure the Hofstra offense will again carry the load here. The Pride have a variety of scoring options as leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman (24.3 PPG) owns the nation's fourth longest streak of finishing w/ 10 or more points (49 straight games), but he was one of only three players to finish in double figures vs. W&M. Rokas Gustys going for 22 points and 21 rebounds, his 12th double double of the season and 46th of his career, I haven't even mentioned Eli Pemberton yet. He went for 17 pts against W&M and averages 16.1 per game, second most on the team.

The recent schedule has been unkind to Drexel as the Dragons have had to play at both Northeastern and Charleston in the last seven days. This game makes it three straight on the road against the top teams in the CAA. I mentioned earlier that Drexel is not very good defensively. They allow 78.9 PPG for the year and in conference play that number has jumped to an unsightly 83.3 PPG. Not good news considering Hofstra averages 85.0 PPG at home. The Dragons even shot the ball well Thursday against Northeastern (52.9%) and still lost. Not a good sign here. They lost the first meeting (at home) to Hofstra as 2.5-pt home dogs, giving up 91 pts in the process. Not only is this their third road game in a week, but the game prior to that was an OT affair. Look for the tired Dragons to get blown out. 8* Hofstra

8* Florida Atlantic (2:00 ET): With Lane Kiffin on board, FAU is most definitely a "football school" for the forseeable future, but the Owls' hoops team has a big game today against rival FIU. These teams opened the Sun Belt campaign against one another (back on 12.30) and it was Florida International emerging victorious, by a single point, 58-57. But FAU escaped w/ the cover as 1.5-pt dogs. There were more lead changes than one could count over the course of the game and it easily could have gone either way. Interestingly, at the time, FAU had lost three in a row and would go on to lose six straight. They come into today's game on a four-game losing streak. But I still like them to exact revenge as a short home favorite. 

Interesting to note that these two rivals have played the same eight opponents over their last eight respective games. FAU has gone 2-6 SU and ATS while FIU is 3-5 SU, but 6-1-1 ATS. That would seem to favor taking the Panthers, who are also already 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 22-9 ATS their L31 road games. They've had a full week to prepare here, but this will also be their third consecutive road game after losing at both Marshall and Western Kentucky last week. Note though that WKU was w/o its star center Dwight Coleby most of the way, which was not the case when the Hilltoppers downed FAU earlier in the week. FIU has only two "true" road wins in nine tries this year. A big reason for the positive ATS record is they are almost always getting more than 4.5 points.

Neither of the teams shoot the ball particularly well, but at least the Owls jump up over 45% from the field here in Boca Raton. As a result, their scoring average increases to a reasonable 73.8 PPG, up from 65.0 PPG on the road. They shot only 34% against Marshall last Saturday, yet still were tied 55-55 midway through the second half. Like FIU, the Owls have had a full week to prepare here. I simply happen to believe FAU is the better team here, before even factoring in the home court edge, and that makes them a bit of a bargain at the current price. 8* Florida Atlantic

10* Miami FL (12:00 ET): Other than the B2B losses, I have no idea why the Hurricanes would be getting "little more" than the token number for homecourt advantage in this ACC matchup. They are clearly superior to Syracuse in my eyes as right now they "should" be a top six or seven seed in the NCAA Tournament while the Orange are on the fringes of the cut. Syracuse is off a loss as well, 74-70 to NC State, as six-point favorites in the Carrier Dome. As much as they "need" this game, it's not as if Miami couldn't stand to build its resume as well. Playing in Coral Gables and coming off B2B defeats will have the Hurricanes quite motivated Saturday afternoon and I'll lay the short number here as I worry about Syracuse offensively.

Miami lost last Saturday to Boston College, by two points, on the road. That's certainly not a "good" loss, but take note they did lead by seven late in the 2H before missing their final nine shots. They also played the game w/o HC Jim Larranaga (sick), which I'm sure had an effect on their late-game execution. The poor shooting then carried over into Tuesday's home date w/ Virginia as they never led and made only 38.3% of their field goals in a 59-50 loss. But given the opponent, that isn't a total shock. Here, they face a Syracuse that is also in the top 13 in defensive efficiency (Virginia #1), but note the 'Canes aren't chopped liver on that end of the floor either as they rank 20th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom). They held Virginia to 59 pts and are 8-2 SU this season after allowing 60 pts or less their previous game. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU after scoring 60 or less.

Syracuse is notorious for not playing any "true" road games in the non-conference under Jim Boeheim. (They did travel to face old Big East foe Georgetown this year). They've gone just 2-4 SU on the ACC road so far this season and while all of those games have been close, recent performances suggest they simply aren't going to be able to stay within the number here. For starters, they lost at home to Virginia by 15 pts. Also, last time out (vs. NC State) was just the third all season that they shot better than 50 percent from the floor, and they still lost. Miami allows just 63.4 PPG at home where they've lost only twice and that was to two top five teams (Duke, Virginia). 10* Miami FL 

10* Georgia State (9:00 ET): Tonight, it's the "Battle of Georgia" down in the "Fun Belt" where everyone is chasing 1st place Louisiana. The only team within realistic striking distance of the Ragin Cajuns would be Georgia State, who is 10-3 SU in league play (and two games back). Everyone else has seven or fewer wins w/ Georgia Southern being one of the many in a logjam of 7-6 and 7-7 squads. The Eagles host tonight, looking to avenge a 17-pt loss to the Panthers that they suffered last month. For that initial meeting, Georgia State was a 6.5-pt favorite and used a big 2nd half run for the win and cover. They shot better than 50% in Atlanta while Ga Southern shot only 33.8%. Will it be that easy in the second go-around? Probably not. But Georgia State is the better team and I'm taking them. 

Now perhaps Georgia State got caught "looking ahead" to this rivalry game as last Saturday saw them get upset (as 13.5-pt chalk) by Louisiana Monroe, 90-82. Or perhaps it was a letdown considering the Panthers were less than 48 hours removed from handing Louisiana its first and only conference loss of the season. Incredibly, the Panthers scored 106 (in regulation!) in the upset of the Rajun Cajuns. Not a ton of defense is played in the Sun Belt, but note it was an OVERTIME loss to La Monroe on Saturday. It was certainly a disappointing loss for Georgia State's perspective as not only did it snap a 10-game win streak, but they had battled back from a 16-pt second half deficit as well. While defense is sometimes optional in this conference, note Georgia State is pretty good at it (putting aside the L2 games), even on the road. They are giving up only 63.5 PPG away from home, which has translated into a 10-3 ATS record.

Georgia Southern comes in off three consecutive losses, so they're not in good form right now. Their latest loss came Saturday as they were in the unfortunate spot of having to face Louisiana right after Georgia State beat them. Still, giving up 100+ pts on your home floor is not a "good look." Overall, the Eagles have now dropped five of seven, beginning w/ the loss to Georgia State. Though they are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five visits into Statesboro, I like GSU to get the job done tonight. They simply can't afford another loss if they want to keep pace w/ Louisiana. Every other Sun Belt squad, Georgia Southern included, just needs to be thinking about the conference tournament at this point. 10* Georgia State

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): I'd like to think that I was pretty early on the "sell Arizona State train." Numerous metrics suggested that regression was on the horizon for the Sun Devils when they started the year 12-0 straight up (10-1-1 ATS). Sure enough, that regression has taken hold as they team has gone just 7-6 SU since, all of those conference games. But the Pac 12 isn't a particularly deep league this season, which has allowed ASU to stay in the thick of things. As of today, they are still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but that's "faint praise" for a squad that once found itself listed as a potential top seed (ridiculous!). Tonight brings a matchup w/ the best team in the conference, Arizona, and that means another loss for the Sun Devils. 

These rivals have met once before this season, the conference opener in fact, and Arizona won 84-78 (-6) handing ASU its very first loss of the season. The Sun Devils come into the rematch on a three-game win streak, the last two coming here in Tempe. But last week was the first time the Sun Devils swept their schedule since conference play began and they hadn't even won B2B Pac 12 games before the current streak began. They have lost five in a row to Arizona, going 0-4-1 ATS as well. Ranking 14th nationally in offensive efficiency is nice, but it largely won't matter when paired w/ a #97 ranking on the other end of the floor. Arizona State shot only 37.9% from the floor in the first meeting, thanks in large part to Deandre Ayton, who is in the running to be the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft in June. 

Arizona had dropped B2B games (Washington, UCLA) before beating USC at home on Saturday. They opened conference play at 9-1 SU, so I'll chalk the losses up to a little "mid-season blues." The Wildcats shot 56.1% against USC as they too can light it up (rank 8th in offensive efficiency). Truth be told, I'm not going to be a big believer in either of the teams come March, but as far as the Pac 12 is considered, Arizona is still king, Something else to consider is that they have been a favorite in every game this year dating back to December 5th's victory vs. Texas A&M. So this is a really good price as well. Arizona State is 4-15 ATS off its previous 19 conference wins. 10* Arizona

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): The 8th ranked Buckeyes (#9 in Coaches Poll) have definitely made the Big 10 more than just a two-team race between Purdue and Michigan State. In fact, they come into tonight leading the conference at 13-1 SU! That one loss is what they'll be looking to avenge this evening as they visit Penn State. The loss occurred in Columbus, ironically enough, 82-79 back on January 25th. OSU was 10-pt favorites for that game, so there's definitely been an adjustment by the linesmakers. But should there be? That game was decided at the buzzer and saw Penn State shoot preposterously well for the game. We're talking 58.3 percent overall from the field, including 11 of 14 from three-point range. That won't be happening again.

Going back to the win over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have now won five of six w/ the lone loss coming at Michigan State. Still though, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team as the win over the Buckeyes should be considered a "season highlight." They're only 3-5 SU in Big 10 play otherwise including losses to Minnesota and Northwestern. Recent wins have largely come at the expense of the bottom of the league, most recently a 74-52 win over a terrible Illinois team on Sunday. They outscored the Illini 37-16 in the 2nd half on another hot shooting night (54.5 FG%).

Not sure homecourt advantage can save the Nittany Lions here as Ohio State has won all five "true" road games this season, doing so by an impressive average of 13.0 PPG. They even won at Purdue in a very impressive comeback. They're 5-0 ATS in those games as well. Revenge can be often overrated, but not here when you're talking about avenging your lone conference defeat. The Buckeyes rank 12th in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and are clearly a "legit" squad. I was certainly not in universal agreement w/ the committee's top 16 teams (revealed Sunday), but Ohio State was an obvious inclusion that everyone would have to agree with. Kam Williams will also be back in the lineup here after being suspended the L3 games. Not that the team needed him in those three games as they won all of them. 8* Ohio State

10* Boise State (11:00 ET): I'll use a seemingly unrelated result to open the discussion of this Wednesday night Mountain West matchup and that's UNC Greensboro's 74-56 win over East Tennessee State on Monday. That matchup saw a conference (Southern) favorite actually come in as a slight dog despite an unbeaten SoCon record (not to mention the nation's longest active win streak). Well, it's something similar here as Nevada (10-2 in Mt West play) is an underdog for the first time all year to a conference opponent, that being Boise State. While not unbeaten in conference play like ETSU was, the Wolfpack are the perceived "best team by a mile" here in the MWC. But the oddsmakers obviously think otherwise. 

In fact, despite perception, at the end of the day today Boise State may very well find itself in first place in the MWC. They are a half game back w/ a 10-3 SU conference record (compared to Nevada's 10-2). Boise State is 20-5 SU overall. Nevada is 21-5 SU overall. This is a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost by six down in Reno last month. That game saw them go a miserable 3 for 21 from the three-point line. Perhaps they got caught looking ahead to this game b/c on Saturday they lost at Utah State, 71-65 as three-point chalk. They were outscored 44-31 in the second half. Pretty incredible is the fact that 9 out of Boise State's last 10 games were decided by six points or fewer.

The big key here though is where this game is being played. Boise State is 13-0 SU at home this season and averaging 85.5 PPG here. Their average margin of victory is 19 PPG. They've never been a home dog all year and even w/ all the close games, they've yet to drop B2B games at any point this season. Being at home and off a loss, facing the top team in the conference, I expect the Broncos to come up huge here. 10* Boise State

8* Davidson (7:00 ET): The A-10 "ain't what it used to be" w/ everyone chasing Rhode Island (who is unbeaten in conference play) and likely needing to win the Conference Tourney just to get into the Big Dance. Here's two teams that have made "NCAA Tourney noise" in the past, albeit some of it when hailing from another league. But this year, both VCU and Davidson are simply fighting to stay relevant. Davidson has a game in hand and can move into a second place tie (w/ St Bonaventure) w/ a win here tonight. They just lost at Rhode Island on Friday, 72-59, but at least had an additional day to prepare here, plus VCU had to go into overtime Saturday to beat Dayton. I'll lay the points. 

Prior to losing to URI on Friday, Davidson had been gaining steam. They'd won three straight games - all by double digits - and two of those wins came by 29 points! Unfortunately, that made them a bit overvalued (even as a road dog) against the Rams. After making 20 three-pointers last Tuesday vs. St. Joe's, the Wildcats were held to just 4 of 17 from behind the arc by the Rams. In retrospect, the closing line for the game seems a bit ridiculous given the gap between Rhode Island and the rest of the A-10. But it also speaks volumes that they come into this game laying points. I expect the offense to bounce back after Friday's terrible performance.

VCU needed a career-high 37 points from Justin Tillman, as well as an extra five minutes of action to get by Dayton on Saturday. That was a home game and they did shoot 53.7% from the floor. I don't expect them to shoot that well as a team here, nor do I expect Tillman (19.2 PPG average) to come anywhere close to that career-high performance. VCU has not fared well as the underdog this year, going 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the spread in this role. They are giving up an average of 76.6 PPG in conference play. Compare that to Davidson, who is allowing only 60.8 PPG in conference play. 8* Davidson

8* Miami FL (9:00 ET): With Virginia off a loss, it's 1st in ACC play all season, conventional wisdom will have the Hoos bouncing back. After all, they are still ranked #1 in all of the land. But laying points on the road isn't always the best situation for a "bounce back." Miami is 9-1 SU here in Coral Gables, the only loss coming to Duke. Plus, the 'Canes are off a close loss themselves. So they won't be lacking for motivation either. Then there's the fact that the "The U' hasn't lost by more than two points in regulation in almost a month. Take the points here as Virginia should certainly be on "upset alert."

Virginia's loss to Virginia Tech was an overtime affair, a 61-60 final where they were playing from behind most of the way and shot only 34.4% overall. Obviously, there's nothing wrong with a defense that allows only 61 pts in an overtime game. Sure enough, the Cavaliers have the second best defensive efficiency rating by any team over the last 10 years. So this is a team that should certainly be taken very seriously. They'd won 15 in a row before Saturday. There's two interesting things about their ascension to #1. One, obviously, is that they did so despite losing. Well, that's because each of the top three teams in America lost last week. The second is that this is the first time since 1982 (the Ralph Sampson days!) that a Virginia team has been ranked #1 in the country. Remember - they came into this season UNRANKED. I'm intrigued as to how they'll handle the target being on their back.

Miami allowed the last nine points of the game Saturday at BC to lose 72-70 as 1.5-pt favorites. As if they needed any extra motivation (they don't!), what better than getting to host the #1 team in the country on national television? The Hurricanes are 9-1 SU at home, winning by an average of 15.2 PPG. Visitors shoot less than 40 percent here. That will come in handy against a defensive-minded team like Virginia. With point potentially at a premium, taking the points seems like a natural move. Note Miami won in Charlottesville LY (were +7.5), 54-48. This will be the most points that "The U" have gotten in any game all season. 8* Miami FL

10* Oklahoma (7:00 ET): Led by Trae Young, Oklahoma got off to an incredible 14-2 start. But many of the advanced metrics raised some "red flags" and sure enough those red flags have came to fruition as the team has lost six of its last eight games. Now the majority of those losses have been close, including one by two points last week at home to West Virginia. Saturday saw them again lose as a favorite (-6), this time on the road to Iowa State. But that didn't stop the NCAA Tournament committee from pronouncing this as one of the top 16 teams. The pollsters aren't quite as high as the Sooners check in at #23 in the latest Top 25 poll. Things get no easier tonight w/ a visit to Lubbock to face #7 Texas Tech.

The seventh-ranked Red Raiders are trending in a much different direction that OU right now. They've won six straight, the last three all coming by double digits (3-0 ATS). This is the #3 team nationally in defensive efficiency (trailing only Virginia & Cincinnati) and they are holding opponents to only 58.9 points per game here at home where they have yet to lose a single time this season (15-0 straight up). Yet, this line seems inflated due to recent results. When they met last month in Norman, not only did Oklahoma win 75-65, they did so as 2.5-pt chalk. Given that result, it sure seems like the number has swung too far in the other direction for the rematch. Again, I suspct this has to do w/ recent results. But that's a small sample size, remember.

After losing B2B games as a favorite, Oklahoma is coming into this game highly motivated. Young has struggled in the previous two road games, at Texas & Iowa State, going just 14 for 43 overall from the field, including 3 for 22 from three-point range. I suspect he's going to have a big, bounce-back type game here, in spite of the Red Raiders' defensive numbers. In the first meeting, Young went for 27 pts (w/ 10 assists) and that was despite not shooting all that well. This is a player that has scored 43 or more points in four different games (he's the nation's leading scorer). By Big 12 standards, Texas Tech's recent slate of games hasn't been all that challenging. I expect nothing worse than a close loss from OU here. 10* Oklahoma

8* Baylor (9:00 ET): The back half of the Big Monday doubleheader sees Texas hosting Baylor in an important games for both sides. As of today, it would appear as if both teams are right near the "cut line" for the NCAA Tournament. Baylor looks to be on the wrong side ("out") though they did just deliver their most impressive win of the year Saturday, beating Kansas 80-64 in Waco as three-point underdogs. That was the Bears' third consecutive win and cover. Texas, if you believe the "Bracketologists" would be in the field of 68 (anywhere between a 10-12 seed), even though they sport the very same 15-10 SU record as Baylor and have lost B2B games. I have the underdog rated as the better team here and given their lot, I think they're the more "desperate" side here. Take the points. 

Full disclosure - I did play against Baylor on Saturday. That was a mistake as the Bears put together one hell of an effort. In the first half, Kansas had more turnovers (9) than field goals made (7)! Now, I did say in my analysis that in my own personal power rankings, Baylor was ahead of not one, but two Big 12 teams that were thought to be "in" the Big Dance. Those being Kansas State ... and Texas. Baylor won the first meeting w/ the Longhorns this season, 69-60 as 2.5-pt chalk. They did so despite going 3 of 12 from three-point range. The key to victory was defense as Texas shot only 34.3% overall and attempted only five free throws. It will be hard to duplicate those kind of numbers, but it's not like the Longhorns have improved much offensively over the last month. 

Now Baylor has shot the ball extremely well during its three-game win streak, hitting 50% or better from the field in every game. They shot 56.6% from the floor against Kansas! Texas, known for its defensive efficiency (8th nationally), has allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51.6% or better from the field. TCU shot 54.8% against them in an 87-71 loss (for Texas) Saturday. Both of these teams have experienced their "fair share" of close losses in conference play, but Texas is the only one that's really been blown out. Not only was there the TCU game, but they also lost by 35 @ WVU. Baylor is 5-7 SU in conference play, but four of those losses have come by three points or less. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS off a conference win this year. 8* Baylor

10* UCF (4:00 ET): This is one of those challenging games to handicap due to key absences on both sides. But I have UCF rated as the better team, even after factoring in homecourt, thus they're a play for me on Sunday. Back on January 3rd, they proved they are a better team than Memphis, beating the Tigers 65-56 as eight-point home chalk. The line appears to have now swung far too much in the other direction, especially given the result of the 1st matchup. Granted, the Golden Knights just got their doors blown off by Cincinnati (lost by 37!) on Tuesday. B.J. Taylor reinjured his ankle in the loss after missing all five shots and is questionable to play today. But with or without him, UCF can lean on the fact there is simply no way they can be as bad from three-point range here as they were vs. Cincinnati (0 for 14!) and they remain one of the top defensive teams in the country. Take the points.

Memphis is also coming off a blowout loss. There's was suffered at the hands of Wichita State, the other "power" in the AAC. It was a 20-pt home loss and the Tigers' fourth setback in the past five games. As I've stated before, this is not your "older brother's Memphis' team." It certainly appears as if the players have tuned out HC Tubby Smith. Malik Rhodes was recently suspended for his public gripes over playing time. Keep in mind last Saturday, the Tigers lost to a terrible East Carolina team, 88-85. It wasn't just that they lost either; East Carolina came in as the nation's WORST three-point shootingt team and yet went 11 of 24 from behind the arc. That is one of just three AAC wins for ECU on the season and it clearly illustrates there's hope for the UCF offense here, regardless if Taylor plays or not.

I mentioned earlier that UCF is one of the top defensive teams in the country. This is true. Per KenPom, they rank fourth nationally in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 61.3 PPG w/ opponents shooting less than 39% for the season. Really, it's a shock that they are only 14-9 SU. That record has more to do w/ injuries than performance, however, and coming off a humiliating defeat I'd expect a motivated team today. As for Memphis, they are a terrible three-point shooting team (28.8% for the year!) and have allowed 80+ pts in B2B games. 10* UCF

10* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): This is the game Gonzaga has been waiting for as they seek to avenge their lone conference loss of the season and one of just four losses this season, period. They have lost since falling at home to St. Mary's, 74-71, as 7.5-pt chalk back on January 18th. Interestingly enough though, they have not covered a single spread since then either. The Zags are now on an eight-game ATS losing streak, which goes back to the game before losing to St. Mary's. Their YTD margin of victory, whether you're talking overall (+17.4 PPG) or in WCC play (+19.4) remains impressive. However, it's definitely taken a "hit" recently. None of the L4 wins have come by more than 10 points. This one doesn't have to be though, and that's key as I'll take the points.

Computers and power rankings seem to like these two more than the pollsters, which is nothing new. I believe Gonzaga to be the better team and one of the 10 best in the country for that matter. St. Mary's wouldn't be too far behind, but Top 20 is a better designation for them. The issue of homecourt advantage then comes into play here. The Gaels have won all 14 home games this season, by an average of nearly 19 points per game. Of course, homecourt advantage certainly didn't matter the first time these teams met when SMU pulled the upset (Gonzaga's lone home loss of the year). The line has swung about 10 points for this rematch, which seems like (to me) an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. Take note that both teams played Thursday and St. Mary's is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing w/ one or no days' rest.

The Gaels last loss occurred on November 26th, in overtime, at a neutral site against Georgia. That particular holiday tournament (Wooden Classic in Fullerton) is responsible for both losses this season as the game prior saw them lose to Washington State. Outside of Gonzaga, St. Mary's has not faced another ranked team all season. So the schedule can definitely be called into question. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has faced a schedule that includes games vs. Ohio State, Florida, Creighton and Villanova. Any of those four teams would be SMU's hardest or second-hardest game to date. St. Mary's was ridiculous from the field in that first meeting, shooting 56.6% overall and 8 of 13 from three-point range. Don't look for those numbers to be duplicated tonight. 10* Gonzaga

9* Over Purdue/Michigan State (4:00 ET): Maybe they were caught looking ahead to this game, but Purdue blew a 14-point second half lead Thursday against Ohio State and saw it's 19-game winning streak come to an end. It was also the 5th consecutive game they failed to cover. The other half of the equation in this Big 10 showdown is Michigan State and the Spartans have struggled at the betting window of late as well, going 0-4-1 ATS their L5 games. Somebody "has" to cover today obviously (or maybe it will be a push?), but my interest is w/ the total. I had the Over in the aformentioned Purdue-Ohio State game and while that came up short, I don't see that being the case here in a battle of two teams both averaging 80+ PPG.

This is also just the 2nd time all season that Purdue checks in as an underdog. The first took place all the way back on 11.24 vs. Arizona, who at the time was ranked #2 in the country. That game took place in Atlantis and it's crazy that those two teams were playing for 7th place in the tournament. Were they to play again today, Purdue would clearly be favored. It's also interesting to note that at the time the Boilermakers were off B2B losses. Beating Arizona is what started the 19-game win streak as they scored 89 points on 57.4% shooting. Wednesday's loss to Ohio State saw the Boilers shoot only 42.6% overall and it was their lowest scoring game of the year (63 points). Pretty clearly, you should expect a bounce back offensively here. We've seen 9 of their last 11 games stay Under, so we're also "due" for an Over.

East Lansing has seen its fair share of high-scoring games this season as the Over is 9-3 in all Spartans' home games. Sparty is also off a high-scoring win on the road and, really, that's putting things mildly. They won 96-93 at Iowa on Wednesday and, no, there was no overtime there. MSU scored 48 pts in each half and shot 56.1% for the game. While those numbers may be hard (if not impossible) to duplicate here, note that Purdue has allowed a shooting percentage of nearly 50 percent its last five games. Michigan State also is averaging a stunning 90 PPG here at the Breslin Center. Purdue averages a not too shabby 83.2 PPG overall and both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency nationally. 9* Over Purdue/Michigan St

8* Kansas (2:00 ET): #10 Kansas finds itself in a dogfight as it looks to win an unprecedented 14th consecutive Big 12 regular season title. The Jayhawks enter the weekend tied for 1st w/ #7 Texas Tech at 8-3 SU in conference play. After suffering a somewhat shocking home defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State last Saturday, Bill Self's squad quickly bounced back by defeating TCU 71-64 as seven-point chalk. Today, they'll hit the road to face Baylor. The Bears, who played KU tough last month (lost by only three in Lawrence) are off B2B victories, though they'd also lost four in a row before that. That loss to the Jayhawks last month was particularly painful as the Bears still have NEVER won in Allen Fieldhouse. They led by six w/ just over two minutes remaining. I expect a similar result this afternoon in Waco. 

Baylor is just 4-7 SU in Big 12 play and 14-10 SU overall. Right now, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team, the only Big 12 team besides Oklahoma State and Iowa State with that distinction. Quite frankly, it would take one heck of a close to the regular season or more likely winning the conference tournament just to get to the Big Dance. To illustrate how strong this league is, I have the Bears ranked 32nd in the country, which would be sixth best in the 12-team Big 10 (ahead of both Texas and Kansas State). While there have been some close calls in this rivalry recently (last five meetings all decided by six points or less!), all of them have gone Kansas' way. The Jayhawks have even found plenty of ATS success here in Waco, covering in 10 of the previous 13 visits. 

Baylor has won consecutive games by double digits, but those came against the two weakest teams in the league, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Needless to say, the defensive effort put forth in Tuesday's "upset" (were +2) in Stillwater likely won't be repeated here as they held OK State to 37.3% shooting for the game. Kansas comes in ranked in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and that's something that only a handful of teams in the county can lay claim to (only 5 to be exact: Purdue, Mich St, Gonzaga & WVU being the others). I just can't see the Jayhawks losing here, so that combined w/ a low spread has me laying the points. 8* Kansas

8* Oklahoma State (12:00 ET): The Big 12 likes to fancy itself as the best - and deepest - conference in America. Yet, there is a good chance that we'll be seeing the same end result we always do come the end of the regular season, that being Kansas on top. #19 West Virginia would certainly like to change that though. But even after B2B wins have gotten the Mountaineers within one game of the conference lead, there's still plenty of work to be done in Morgantown, especially considering the team had dropped five of six prior to the B2B victories. I have them rated as better than #19, but also can't see them winning by more than the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here against a game OK State squad. Take the points.

The Pokes are near the bottom of the Big 12 and have the league's worst RPI (outdated metric). However, that doesn't mean they haven't been competitive. Last Saturday, they went to Kansas and won - as 12-pt underdogs - 84-79. It's a little interesting to see them getting an almost identical number now against a slight inferior team. This underdog has generally been quite competitive on the road this season, leading Texas Tech, Kansas State and Arkansas in the second half. They ended up losing to those three teams by a combined 10 points. Then there was the first meeting w/ WVU, who they led by as many as 13 (w/ only seven minutes remaining!) before faltering late and losing the game 85-79. OK State didn't even end up covering as they were three-point dogs.

Using the the line for the first matchup as a baseline and the line for LW's Kansas game, it sure does seem as if there's some value on the underdog in this early Saturday tip. Keep in mind WVU is off a two-point victory (75-73) over Oklahoma as three-point underdogs. Also, Oklahoma State came here and won outright last season, 82-75 as 10-pt dogs. The road team has actually won each of the L4 meetings! Even against a great defensive team like WVU, I have to imagine the Cowboys will shoot better here than they did Tuesday vs. Baylor (37.3%) when they lost 67-56. Only one time, that being 1/3 at Oklahoma, have the Pokes been blown out in conference play. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Detroit (9:00 ET): The Horizon League lost Valparaiso (to the Missouri Valley) before this season, opening up a void that needed to be filled atop the conference. Currently, three teams are separated by just one game and are at least three games ahead of the rest of the field. Neither of these two teams are among that power trio (which is Wright State, Northern Kentucky and UIC). Yet there will still be a sense of pride on the line Friday night as in-state rivals Oakland and Detroit meet. Especially because this is a rare national TV game (on ESPN2). The first matchup of the year produced a 92-86 Oakland win, although they failed to cover as nine-point road favorites (thanks to a big Detroit 2H rally). I'll be taking the points here.

A couple things to consider here before we break down the actual matchup on the court. One is that an official statement has been released that this game WILL be played tonight, regardless if Oakland is forced to "shut down" the campus due to inclement weather in the area. Obviously, given the weather situation, I expect crowd support to be low and thus decrease the value of "homecourt advantage" in this one. Two, a lot of names (on both sides) won't be playing. Just SIX scholarship players suited up for Oakland in Sunday's 82-74 win over IUPUI. That's because THREE players were injured in last Friday's 79-73 loss to UIC, one of them a season-ender (ACL) to starting PG Brailen Neely. Detroit's depth is also being tested as three players were already out due to suspension (undisclosed or academic) and now three more are either injured or battling the flu. Good grief! 

WIth both teams possibly running "skeleton crews" on the floor Friday night, taking the points only seems logical, especially w/ this being a rivalry game. The first meeting saw Oakland jump out to a 50-29 halftime lead before winning by only six. I can't see Detroit digging themselves such a hole this time around. I also have to question the psyche of an Oakland team that was the preseason favorite in the Horizon League and has massively underachieved (just 4-11 ATS as a favorite). Meanwhile, Detroit (currently in 10th place) can still improve its position for the conference tournament as they are only two games back of fifth place Milwaukee in the loss column. 8* Detroit

analysis soon

10* Delaware (7:00 ET): Tonight, we head to the CAA, a league that is nowhere near what it once was during they "heyday" of George Mason and VCU. Both those schools left for the "greener pastures" of the Atlantic 10, leaving behind a field that is generally competitive, albeit no longer than dangerous come March. Northeastern is one of the teams currently competing for the top spot as they enter the day just one game back of 1st place Charleston. The Huskies snapped a two-game losing streak by beating UNC Wilmington 107-100 on Saturday, but as you can tell from that score, it was an overtime affair. Tonight, they hit the road for what "looks" to be a winnable game, but it's always dangerous laying points in this situation and I'll fade. 

Delaware is your host tonight and things have not been going well for the Blue Hens of late. They're on a six-game losing streak, three of those coming at home. But, as you might expect, the losses at home have generally been closer calls than those that took place on the road. They covered here against both Towson and Hofstra, losing those games by only a combined nine points. Tonight marks a revenge spot for the Blue Hens, who lost up in Northeastern last month by a score of 76-64. Interestingly, they were "only" 10-pt dogs in that contest, so by comparison, tonight's line looks like it has some substantial value. Delaware actually led the 1st meeting at the half, 31-28.

Now not having leading scorer Ryan Daly is something Delaware must overcome here. He injured his ankle against Charleston back on Jan 25 and hasn't played in any of the three games since. However, even w/o him, the Blue Hens were competitive in two home games. Tonight's spread appears to be an overreaction to the injury. Even in Saturday's 13-pt loss to Elon, offense really wasn't an issue as the Blue Hens scored 76 pts despite going only 6 of 25 from three-point range. Northeastern isn't a great defensive team by any means and their offensive numbers are obviously "skewed" by the last game. As a nine-point underdog LY, the Blue Hens upset the Huskies here at home. I think they are capable of doing it again. 10* Delaware.

10* Over Ohio State/Purdue (8:30 ET): This sets up as a GREAT matchups as these two teams have gone a combined 23-1 SU vs. the rest of the Big 10 w/ that one loss belonging to the Buckeyes (at home to Penn State). Purdue is one of the consensus top three teams in the country right now (along w/ Villanova and Virginia) and I could make a case that there's NO team better than Boilermakers, who have outscored their opponents by 19.8 points per game over the course of the season. However, they are off a close call at Rutgers (won by only 2) on Saturday and have failed to cover four in a row. This spread MIGHT be too low, but I'm more comfortable wagering on the total tonight, which I'm confident is too low. Take the Over.

While Purdue had to thwart a comeback effort Saturday vs. Rutgers (led virtually the entire game), Ohio State required a comeback to get by its lowly Big 10 opponent (Ilinois) on Sunday. The Buckeyes trailed by as many as 11 in the first half before taking control by halftime and leading the rest of the way. Something I noticed right away here is that despite both teams basically shooting 50% from the field in conference play, we've seen a rash of Unders from both sides. Ohio State has averaged 75 points its last three games and the two that went Under did so because of the opposition. Six of the Buckeyes' last seven games have stayed Under as they're now 17-6 Under for the season. But this team isn't very accustomed to playing out on the road (just four "true" road games!) and I'm wondering how and if their defense "travels." 

Purdue has uncharacteristically been struggling on the defensive end of late. Their last five opponents have shot 49.7% against them, though that clip is largely owed to Michigan's stunning 60% effort back on 1.25. Still all five teams shot at least 44.1% from the field. Not enough people talk about the Boilermakers' offense, which is third in the nation in efficiency and averages 87.4 PPG here in West Lafayette. They are shooting better than 50% for the year (all games), including a ridiculous 42.7% from three-point range. That helps explain why they've won 19 in a row (nation's longest win streak) and in the L17 games, they've scored no fewer than 70 every time. 10* Over Ohio State/Purdue

8* Maryland (6:30 ET): After last night's success (10* on Northwestern), it's back to the Big 10 we go. As discussed in yday's analysis, this top heavy league has three clear locks (Purdue, Ohio St, Michigan St) for the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is considered to a be 4th team that's "in," but the Wolverines did themselves no favors by losing last night. As for everyone else, it's going to take either an a) incredible late regular season run, b) winning the conference tournament or c) both a and b. Maryland and Penn State enter Wednesday in the middle of the pack, both at 16-9 straight up overall. The Terps ended a three-game losing streak on Sunday by rallying to beat Wisconsin. Penn State has covered four straight (3-1 SU) and off its biggest conference win to date, 82-58 over Iowa. 

First, let's address the "elephant in the room" here, shall we? Maryland could again be w/o 7'1" Michal Cekovsky, one of three injured players on this roster. Injuries can certainly help explain how this team went from 14-4 SU to just 16-9 SU in a hurry. However, they didn't have Cekovsky when they beat Wisconsin on Sunday. Note that there is a chance he plays tonight as he's listed as questionable on the injury report. Either way, this play stands. With or w/o Cekovsky, the Terps can stay in any game as long as their defense keeps playing the way it has. Opponents are shooting just 40.5% against them for the season. Also, while the record away from home looks bad (3-7 SU road/neutral site), note they've only been outscored by 3.7 PPG in those contests. 

I think that Penn State's previous result works against them here as it has artifically inflated this line. The Nittany Lions shot 54.7% from the floor against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes are a pretty atrocious defensive team and that adjective might be considered kind in some circles. While they've won three of their last four overall, including an upset over Ohio State, Penn State has won B2B games just one time in 2018. This is their longest ATS win streak of the season. I know Maryland has yet to win a single time as an underdog all season (0-8 SU), but tonight could very well be "their time." They beat Penn State back on Jan 2 (forgot to mention that!) as 3.5-pt chalk and that was despite making five fewer baskets in the game. 8* Maryland

8* Ole Miss (9:00 ET): The Rebels host Missouri tonight in a SEC tussle. While Mizzou is considered a NCAA Tournament team right now (Ole Miss is not), it's pretty interesting to note how the line has "flipped" overnight and you should be aware that while Ole Miss' SEC record is only 4-6 straight up, Mizzou's is just 5-5 SU. So despite the respective distinctions when it comes to the Big Dance, this is a lot closer matchup than most on the national level will make it out to be. In fact, I firmly believe that at home, the Rebels are likely to win here. Yes, they've lost three in a row, including a humiliating setback Saturday at Tennessee. But Mizzou is in prime letdown mode following a win over Kentucky that same day. 

Prior to winning B2B games (both by identical 69-60 scores), Missouri was dealing w/ its own three-game losing skid. All three losses were by double digits as well. Then came a win at Alabama last Wednesday and an even bigger victory Sat afternoon vs. Kentucky. The Tigers held those two opponents to about 33% shooting overall, which is obviously really tough to do. At the same time, Ole Miss shot only 35% from the floor against Tennessee. But a big key here is the game being Oxford where the Rebels average an impressive 81.6 PPG. Bottom line is I expect the hosts to be a lot more proficient on the offensive end tonight while the road team's defensive numbers from the L2 games should decrease rather dramatically here.

Missouri has dealt w/ plenty of attrition this season, losing four players from its original rotation. Michael Porter, Jr was obviously considered the biggest loss, but they've been dealing w/ his absence for almost three months now. Still, off their 1st EVER win over Kentucky, it's only natural to have a letdown in this spot. As for Ole Miss, they should be fully motivated coming off a 33-point loss on the road. They beat Missouri three times last season, so what's one more? Coming off an SEC loss, the Rebels are an incredible 19-3 ATS the past three seasons (4-1 ATS this year) and 65-33 ATS their L98. They are also a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less. 8* Ole Miss

10* Northwestern (7:00 ET): It remains to be seen just how many teams from the Big 10 make the NCAA Tournament. Three - Purdue, Michigan State and Ohio State - are considered absolute locks. After that, Michigan is considered the only other team "Tournament worthy" at this point. The Wolverines, winners of B2B games at home, will hit the road tonight for a critical game at Northwestern. Fresh off their 1st NCAA Tourney appearance last year, the host Wildcats came into this season w/ Big Dance aspirations (four returning starters) and were even ranked in the top 25 at the start of the year. But they have been one of the bigger disappointments in the country so far as they are only 14-10 SU and probably need to win the Conference Tournament to make the field of 68.

Of course, a late season run would certainly improve N'western's chances as well. Looking at their remaining schedule, there's reason to believe such a run is possible. Purdue and Ohio State are both out of the way and only one game (vs. Michigan State on 2.17) figures to see them as a substantial underdog (and even that one is at home). With the Big 10 having expanded, you simply don't see as many regular season rematches anymore. But this is one. Last Monday in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines downed the Wildcats 58-47 in an ugly shooting night for both sides. Northwestern turning the ball over 16 times (Michigan only five) was definitely a factor as was the venue. Michigan is 13-1 SU in Ann Arbor this season (+15.9 PPG) while they're just 4-4 SU in "true" road games (only +1.9 PPG). Meanwhile, N'western is 10-3 SU at home, averaging 79.1 PPG, which is a dramatic rise in scoring compared to their season average.

Northwestern has played two rematches in conference play thus far and won both. The first, like this game, was a revenge spot against Penn State (won 70-61 here in Evanston). The second saw them sweep the season series from Minnesota, winning 77-69 on the road. Michigan has played only one Big 10 foe twice so far and dropped both games to Purdue. Note N'western did lead by nine in the first half in the first meeting in Ann Arbor. Defensively, they are playing better since switching to a 2-3 zone. They've also been off since Thursday while Michigan had to play an overtime game on Saturday, squeaking by short-handed Minnesota. 10* Northwestern

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): This matchup is used to carrying a lot of national importance, but not so much this time. Louisville is good, and the job that HC Scott Padgett is doing here should really be commended, considering the circumstances he inherited. However, the Cardinals are not ranked and are unlikely to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Syracuse might be lucky even to make the field of 68 at this point as they are coming off an 0-2 week where they were held below 100 total pts by Georgia Tech and Virginia. Of course, L'ville was also 0-2 SU last week. So something is going to have to give here and I'll take the points, noting Syracuse had not been beaten by a margin larger than seven in ACC play (discounting an overtime loss) prior to Saturday. 

Looking at Syracuse's last seven days, their lack of success simply boils down to an inability to make shots. They shot 30% and 33.3% in the two losses, thereby negating some of their own strong defensive efforts. Note that this team actually ranks ninth in the country in defensive efficiency, which would serve them well if they were to make the NCAA Tournament. But it's actually been three straight games shooting 35.2% or worse from the field. Talk about being "due" to make shots! Prior to the loss to Virginia on Saturday (no shame there), the Orange had allowed field goal percentages of 27.7% and 33.3% its last two games. They are fourth in the nation in field goal percentage allowed. Saturday was a case of simply running into a better team. Only four Syracuse players scored, which is downright unconscionable! 

As for L'ville, they have given Syracuse problems in the past, especially here at home. Not only have the Cardinals won and covered seven of the last eight meetings at home, they are 3-0 SU and ATS the L3 overall. However, that was a different (and better) regime. This Louisville team has dropped three of its last four and for the 1st time in two seasons has dropped B2B ACC games. They were held to 12 of 33 shooting after halftime vs. Florida State on Saturday and outrebounded severely as well. Junior Ray Spalding (ankle) was also injured in the loss. Before Virginia on Saturday, Syracuse's ACC losses were by two, seven, 11 (misleading as it was a 2OT game) and four points. I like them as the underdog here. 8* Syracuse

8* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): If you're a regular client, then you may be getting a little "sick" of the Badgers right about now. After all, I've tried unsuccessfully w/ them, not once but twice, in the past seven days. Monday, they lost at home to Nebraska by a score of 74-63 (were 3.5 pt favorites). Wednesday, they again lost as a small home favorite, this time to Northwestern by a score of 60-52. The team has now lost seven of its last eight games overall (2-6 ATS) and its only role in the Big 10 race moving forward will be that of a spoiler. Call me stubborn; but I think they're undervalued in this spot (granted I thought the same the L2 games). So, let's say "the third time is the charm" and take the points.

Maryland is the Badgers' third opponent in the last seven days. The Terps aren't exactly playing well either as they've lost three straight and five of the last six. They will also not be at full strength Sunday. Leading scorer Anthony Cowan is dealing w/ a thumb injury and thus won't be at 100 percent. Furthermore, two other players - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky - are listed as doubtful, thereby costing them depth. Maryland's one strength is rebounding, but they failed to control the boards in Tuesday's 75-67 loss at Purdue. Granted, that's one of the top teams in the entire country, but the Terrapins fell into a big early hole and never led in that game.

Wisconsin's season also took a nosedive in part due to injury, but at least they've become accustomed to playing w/o both D'Mitrik Trice and Kobe King. I realize that the Badgers have just one win outside of Madison all season, but rarely are they blown out and when they are, it's usually by a very good team. Maryland is not very good and the only reason they have a better record than Wisconsin has to do w/ a softer non-conference schedule. The Badgers have won each of the last two meetings against the Terps, both by double digits. Granted, they are nowhere close to the same time this year, but I think they have enough to stay within what is a generous number. 8* Wisconsin

8* Indiana (8:15 ET): Indiana has performed somewhat admirably in conference play, covering six of its last eight. However, the schedule has not been kind to them of late as tonight's game vs. Michigan State will be their THIRD in a row vs. Top 25 team! They did stick within the number here in Bloomington vs. Purdue (lost by only seven as 8.5-pt dogs), but then were never really "in it" Tuesday at Ohio State (lost by 15 as 10-pt dogs). Drawing a Michigan State team that absolutely annihilated them last month in East Lansing is probably the last thing the Hoosiers wanted to see for this weekend. But I think there's some substantial value to be had here as there's no way they'll play as poorly in this rematch. Take the points.

Michigan State was "only" a 14.5-pt favorite in the first meeting when they shot 54.2% from the field, including 10 of 20 from three-point range. Sparty was also off a loss there (to Michigan), so it was a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for IU there. The Hoosiers certainly didn't help themselves in that first meeting, shooting only 33.9% from the field and missing 18 of 26 three-point tries. It was a 19-point game at halftime and from there the margin ballooned to 28 by the final buzzer. When you look at the line for tonight, there's been a clear adjustment by the oddsmakers and I would dub it an "overadjustment" quite frankly. 

IU has lost three straight, but when they lost to Michigan State earlier in the season, they were coming in on a three-game win streak. As I mentioned, Sparty was off a loss. Now they've won five in a row as they look to keep pace w/ Purdue and Ohio State atop the Big 10 standings. However, let's be sure to note the Spartans needed to rally to beat Penn State at home Wednesday (trailed by six at halftime). That makes it two in a row where they had to rally back from a deficit that got as high as double digits (trailed Maryland by as many as 13 Sunday). Let's also not discount the sexual assault controversy currently engulfing the Michigan State campus right now and the impact that can have on the coaches and players. Tom Izzo is repeatedly being asked about it and at this point, it's got to be at least a little distracting. This is too many points to lay on the conference road. 8* Indiana

10* Oregon (5:00 ET): As discussed yday, the Pac 12 is not a particularly strong or deep league this year. Right now, we're looking at three, maybe four, teams making the Big Dance. Neither Oregon nor Stanford are currently among that quartet. However, Oregon (a Final Four team last year!) looks like their making a run at it. The Ducks (who lost four starters from LY's team) have won three straight, all as favorites, most recently 66-53 over Cal on Thursday. The Ducks have been a great bet the last few seasons, especially when coming off a conference win, a role they are 29-9 ATS in since 2016. They are also 10-3 ATS as a dog the L3 seasons and here will be traveling to Palo Alto to face a Stanford team that had lost three in a row prior to Thursday. 

The Cardinal snapped their losing skid by beating lowly Oregon State, here at home, two nights ago. They opened a 15-pt lead at halftime and the margin never got closer than six in the second half. Despite struggling of late, Stanford has been solid at the betting window, covering eight of its last nine games overall! But that has a funny way of working itself out as an ATS streak such as that often leads to teams becoming overvalued in the marketplace and that's what we have here. Even at home, I do not believe the Cardinal should be favored in this game. This will also be the first time in three weeks that we find them playing a second game in three days, which is actually a common spot in the Pac 12, but one they've obviously avoided of late. 

I realize that this is also Oregon's second road game in three days, but they covered in this spot the last time they were in it (I remember b/c I was on them!), losing to Arizona by only seven as nine-point dogs. At the time, it was actually the Ducks' third consecutive road game and they were off an upset of Arizona State. Oregon has the better overall record of these two teams, 15-7 vs. 12-11, and really they should have beaten Cal by more on Thursday. They led by double digits most of the way, yet did so despite turning the ball over 17 times and giving up 19 offensive rebounds. Clean up those issues and you have a team that can make a late season run in the Pac 12! 10* Oregon

8* LSU (3:30 ET): The SEC may be king in football, but that's definitely NOT the case in basketball. While the latest projections have as many as SEVEN teams from the conference making the field of 68, none seem like legit Final Four contenders to me. Arkansas is one of those seven projected "in," but the Razorbacks are only 4-5 SU in league play and really can't afford too many more slip ups. They just lost, 80-66, at Texas A&M on Tuesday and have been a complete disaster at the betting window, going just 1-8 ATS vs. the rest of the SEC. That doesn't even include last Saturday's win (but non-cover) at home over Oklahoma State, 66-65 as seven-point chalk. Problem here for the Razorbacks is this is another road game. They are just 1-5 SU and ATS in "true" roadies so far. 

LSU is just 3-6 SU in conference play, but that's the same record as the Texas A&M team that just beat Arkansas. Consider there are currently eight teams currently 4-5 SU or 3-6 SU in SEC play, so it's a real logjam in the middle. Just 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games overall, the Tigers have been struggling. The last week has not gone well for them - at all - as they lost to Auburn and Tennessee by a combined 48 points. But both of those games did take place on the road. Here in Baton Rouge, they are a respectable 8-4 SU and outscoring visitors by 14.3 points per game (shooting better than 50%). Their last home game was a win, 77-65 over Texas A&M, as two-point underdogs. Two of their four home losses have been by three points or less. 

Something else to consider is what LSU did to Arkansas in the first meeting. They went to Fayatteville and prevailed 75-54 as 10-pt underdogs! Arkansas couldn't make a shot to save their lives as they finished the game at only 33.3% from the field and trailed by 20 at halftime. I'd say that's something that's pretty important to note! Now, even though they're now at home, it certainly won't be that easy for LSU here. However, Arkansas is not good defensively as they are giving up 81.7 PPG in conference play. LSU shot 52.7% against them in the first meeting and obviously had its way inside considering that, like the Hogs, they were just 4 of 18 from three-point range. The Tigers will have a deeper bench for this game w/ two players back from suspension.  8* LSU

8* UCF (12:00 ET): Though Cincinnati and Wichita State are the headlines, there's more to the AAC than just those two this season. Right now, both Houston and SMU are considered NCAA Tournament teams, although they are by no means "off the bubble." Then there is UCF. The Golden Knights have some ugly conference losses on their resume, yet are still in position to finish as high as second place in the conference w/ a late surge. Wednesday, here at home, saw them down UConn by a score of 70-61 as 5-pt chalk. Today, they host aforementioned Houston, who is off a loss and playing the second of back to back road games. It was Cincinnati that got the Cougars on Wednesday, 80-70, in a game w/ an 8.5-pt spread. 

To make that late surge, UCF is going to have to overcome some injuries. Definitely Tacko Fall (2nd leading scorer) and possibly Chance McSpadden (5.5 ppg) could be out today. However, it's important to note that neither played against UConn Wednesday. Ironically, a key midseason return (B.J. Taylor) led the way. Taylor, who is now the team's leading scorer after just five games, scored 20 points. He was one of four Knights to score in double figures as the team picked up just its second win EVER over UConn. After giving up the first basket of the game, UCF never trailed again. So it was a pretty impressive victory. As a home dog of three points or less, the Golden Knights have covered 10 of their past 12 (also 10-2 SU).

A loss here would obviously be crushing to Houston's resume, but they have to prove to me that they can win on the road. They are just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in "true" road games thus far and as mentioned earlier, just dropped another one this week. It was the third time in the last four road games that the Cougars allowed 80 or more points. It's goes w/o saying that it's pretty tough to win on the road when you're giving up that many. UCF is by no means a prolific offensive team, but they do give up only 59.3 PPG at home this season w/ opponents shooting below 38% from the field! They actually rank #6 nationally in defensive efficiency. One of the few teams ahead of them in that category is Cincinnati, who just beat Houston. The Cougars have failed to cover the L3 times they have been a road fave of -3 or less. 8* UCF

8* Utah (9:00 ET): The Pac 12 isn't particularly strong this season. Outside of Arizona, I really don't see any other team making any "noise" come March. Remember when Arizona State was one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country? Right now, no one (outside of the pollsters of course!) considers the Sun Devils even among the top 40 nationally and I'd say there's a decent chance they won't even make the NCAA Tournament! Right now, if you believe the "Bracketologists," only three Pac 12 teams would make the field of 68. Two teams struggling to find their way will meet Friday night in Boulder as Utah comes calling to play Colorado. The Utes swept last year's season series and have beaten the Buffs three straight times overall.

CU hardly comes into tonight in top form. They've lost three in a row, all by nine points or more. Saturday, it was an 80-66 loss at Arizona State where they again failed defensively in the second half. The last two games have seen the Buffaloes give up 98 points atfer halftime. That's way too many. It also didn't help that they failed to get to the FT line (only nine attempts) against ASU and their own top two scorers combined for only 10 points. Obviously, some of those numbers are set to improve upon a return home, but the bottom line is that this team simply isn't very good. Since opening the year 6-0 SU (all six wins at home), the Buffs are just 6-10 SU their L16 games. 

Utah was hoping to enter this game, their third in a row on the road, on a four-game win streak. But they lost by a single point at Arizona on Saturday, 74-73. The Utes rallied back from a deficit that got as high as 13 pts in the second half. That was a tough spot though as two days earlier, they'd gone to overtime and beat Arizona State in Tempe. Arizona simply could not miss as they finished the game at a ridiculous 64.4% from the field, including 10 of 16 from three-point range. I seriously doubt that Colorado can come close to matching those kind of offensive numbers. Interesting to note that CU has only been favored twice in Pac 12 play thus far. This line figures to close around a pick 'em, but still. The Buffaloes have scored more than 71 pts just one time in the previous six games. 8* Utah

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET): At this time last season, Gonzaga was still unbeaten and would stay that way until the regular season finale when they lost (at home) to BYU. But, as we know, it was the second loss that stung more as it took place in the National Championship Game to North Carolina. This year's team isn't quite as good and as a result, has been flying "under the radar." They're currently ranked 14th, but I believe them to be better than that. Most computer ranking systems, as well as my own personal power rankings, have them inside the Top 10. Thus, despite being a relatively large favorite here, I believe there's some value on the Zags. They've beaten tonight's opponent, San Diego, 18 straight times here in Spokane. How about one more? 

San Diego actually brings some legit credentials into this year's first of two meetings. The Toreros are #1 in the COUNTRY in defending the three-point line and hold opponents to just 39.3% shooting overall (14th). That said, they just allowed 82 pts in a win over Loyola Marymount Saturday, the most points they'd given up in regulation all season. The 89-82 win was a bit of a misleading final as they led by 23 at halftime and by 15 w/ just 80 seconds remaining. Still though, the defensive numbers have to be a concern now that they're going up against an offense that is 5th nationally in FG% (51.2) and makes more than nine three-pointers per game. Here at home, Gonzaga averages a whopping 92 PPG. 

Like USD, Gonzaga dominated by more than final score indicated in their last game. The 'Zags were leading San Francisco by double digits w/ just over six minutes remaining on Saturday, but had to hold on as the Dons cut it to a three-point game. Gonzaga is now 0-5 ATS its L5 games, including a SU loss to St. Mary's, with none of the four wins coming by a margin greater than 16 points. But, their first five WCC victories did come by an average of 35 PPG. I think that the Bulldogs "get back on track" tonight and do what they usually do to San Diego - that's rout them. The last four matchups, all Gonzaga wins and covers, have been decided by 36, 22, 36 and 58 points. That's an average margin of victory of 38 points per game! 8* Gonzaga

10* Wisconsin (8:30 ET): I've talked about this before, but outside of Purdue and Michigan State (two legit Final Four contenders), I'm not entirely sure if we can be certain anyone else in the Big 10 is any real threat. Ohio State has definitely stepped up, but I don't think for a second that the Buckeyes are going to make a deep NCAA Tourney run. The current state of things in the conference has to have both Northwestern and Wisconsin (who meet tonight) "feeling blue." Off their 1st Tournament appearance EVER, N'western came into the season ranked in the top 25. But they've been one of the bigger disappointments as they're only 13-10 SU overall and off a 47-point "effort" at Michigan. I'll be fading the Wildcats tonight.

It's almost one year to the day that N'western came here to Madison and beat Wisconsin, 66-59 as 11.5-pt dogs (happened Feb 2, 2017). The Badgers would get their revenge in the Big 10 Tournament, winning 76-48. But what's interesting here is N'western has not won in Madison, in consecutive seasons, since 1969-70! In fact, before winning two of their last three visits here, they'd dropped 14 in a row from 1997-2012. Tonight marks their third consecutive road game overall and it comes right in the middle of a "Michigan sandwich." The Wildcats will get their shot at revenge against the Wolverines (for the aformentioned loss) this Saturday. Monday saw them shoot just 38% as they failed to hold an early 19-11 lead on the road.

Wisconsin is also off a loss, although at home. It's not just one loss the Badgers are looking to bounce back from, however. They come into tonight on a three-game losing skid and are just 1-6 SU their previous 7 games. They were actually -3.5 vs. Nebraska on Monday (full disclosure: I had them), but it was not to be as the Badgers blew a double-digit 2H lead. They scored only eight points over the game's final nine minutes as the Cornhuskers threw a 1-3-1 zone at them (unlikely wrinkle). Going 16 of 31 from the FT line, including nine misses in the 2H certainly didn't help matters either. But in taking the double digit lead, the Badgers showed me they are more than capable of "holding court" against a team like Northwestern. The Wildcats are just 2-6 SU on the road (-8.5 PPG) and 1-7 SU when priced as an underdog (-13.9 PPG). 10* Wisconsin

10* Valparaiso (8:00 ET): When Valpo moved from the Horizon League to the Missouri Valley, finishing in last place is obviously not what they had in mind. Remember that the Crusaders finished tied for 1st in the Horizon last season. But they've won only 2 of 10 games in their new conference this season w/ the last one coming exactly three weeks ago. Both wins were at home, however, and against better teams than what they'll face tonight. Indiana State has also fallen below .500 overall on the year having dropped B2B games. The Sycamores are also traditionally a very bad road team (8-26 SU L34) while Valpo is still 39-6 SU its last 45 games. Therefore, I'll gladly lay this short number. 

Valpo's very first MVC game was against Indiana State and they lost 73-64 in Terre Haute. Their struggles weren't known back then, but still it's interesting to note the Crusaders were slight (as in one-point) favorites in that game. That makes this price look like a real value by comparison. The difference in the game was ISU going 10 of 18 from three-point range and also having 12 more FT attempts. I don't think either of those things will repeat themselves in this rematch. Valpo is much better defensively here at home, giving up an average of just 61.8 PPG on the year w/ opponents shooting just 37.9% overall and 28.2% from three-point range. Thus, it's not a real surprise that they're 7-3 SU here.

Speaking of three-point shooting, Valpo couldn't "buy one" Saturday at Illinois State as they missed their 14 attempts from behind the arc and finished 3 of 19 in a game they never led. Obviously, there's no way they'll play - or shoot - that poorly again. Meanwhile, Indiana State just lost to a Bradley team that had previously not won on the conference road. A key to me here is Valpo is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS when favored this season. So they typically take care of business when they're supposed to. They didn't the first time they faced the Sycamores, but I don't see a season sweep taking place here.  10* Valparaiso

8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): As is an annual case, Syracuse finds itself firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble as we head into February. That's what happens when you never play any "true" road games on the non-conference slate, thereby "inflating" the won-loss record, which then inevitably takes a hit once the far more challenging ACC schedule hits. Right now, the Orange have won three straight to get to 15-6 straight up. But of those three wins, two were against Pitt (winless in ACC play) and the other vs. Boston College. Preceeding the current win streak was a four-game losing skid (every loss close). Fortunately for Jim Boeheim, his team will be facing another conference lightweight tonight, that being Ga Tech. This is a game the Orange "can't lose" and I don't think they will. 

Ga Tech has lost four in a row, three of those coming by double digits. The last one, Sunday at home vs. Clemson, was decided by only two points. That was a tough one for the Yellow Jackets as the game wasn't decided until the closing seconds. While competing hard against a ranked team (Clemson #18) looks good on paper, there is no denying that the Yellow Jackets are in poor form right now. They play good defense, but Syracuse is even better on that end of the floor. Also, there's the fact Syracuse won LY's lone matchup, 90-61 at the Carrier Dome. Ga Tech shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range in that game as they couldn't solve the zone defense. I don't see them solving it here either.

Syracuse actually ranks just outside the top 10 (11th) in defensive efficiency nationally. That should serve them well moving forward. Now they are short-handed coming into tonight as the Howard Washington injury leaves them w/ potentially a six-man rotation. Good thing then that for a fourth straight game they are facing a team in the bottom five in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets rank 324th (out of 351 teams) in points per game. Syracuse doesn't shoot the ball particularly well either, but they are 4-0 ATS this season after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. And as far as the schedule goes, the Orange have played only five games against teams w/ losing records (Ga Tech is 10-11 SU) and won them all. 8* Syracuse

8* Iowa (9:00 ET): Both of these Big 10 squads are really struggling right now. Minnesota has lost six of seven - both straight up and against the spread. That's after a 13-3 SU start. Iowa has dropped six of eight and never really even got "out of the box" this season. They're also just 2-6 ATS in those eight games. So something will have to give tonight in Carver-Hawkeye. As discussed yday, the Big 10 is pretty top heavy. I see this being only a four-bid league in March. The only team Iowa is ahead of right now is Illinois and that could change w/ another loss. One thing the Hawkeyes can do is score as they average 84.0 PPG at home. They did win their last home game, 85-67 over Wisconsin, and I think they win this one as well. Lay the short number. 

It's been a tumultuous season for Minnesota w/ the Reggie Lynch situation and I don't think it's any coincidence that things have hit the skids since that came to light. Four of their last six losses have been by double digits. They just lost at home to Northwestern, 77-69. exactly one week ago. They had the weekend off, but I doubt that can cure what ails them. The Gophers have a real depth issue right now, which was apparent down the stretch vs. Northwestern when they blew a double digit lead. HC Richard Pitino has already had to use five different starting lineups in 10 conference games. Who knows what he'll trot out tonight?

Iowa gave up 98 points in its last game, a loss at Nebraska. They allowed the Cornhuskers to shoot 57.7% overall, including 11 of 19 from three-point range. Nebraska also got to attempt 36 free throws. No way Minnesota approaches any of those numbers tonight. After all, the Gophers are shooting less than 40% in conference play! Iowa shoots 50% at home and if they can play their style of game, they should win this one going away. 8* Iowa 

10* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): As top heavy as the Big 10 is this year, it sure is strange not to see Wisconsin in - or anywhere near - the mix. The Badgers have declined significantly from their "heyday" under HC Bo Ryan as this Greg Gard coached team is banged up and floundering at 10-12 SU overall. Last week brought not one, but two double digit defeats - at the hands of Iowa and Michigan State - although both were on the road. Tonight, the Badgers return to Madison and are slight favorites over a Nebraska team desperate to strengthen its somewhat weak resume. The Cornhuskers are 16-8 SU overall, but not really considered a legit at-large candidate for the Big Dance in March. This is a revenge game for Wisconsin as they lost by four down in Lincoln earlier this month. 

Only five Big 10 teams currently have winning records in conference play and Nebraska is one of them at 7-4 SU. The Cornuskers' four conference losses have all come against fellow teams w/ winning records. Three of them have been by single digits, the lone exception taking place at Michigan State back on Dec 3 when they lost by 29. Two of their non-conf losses were to Kansas and Creighton and it's been an inability to beat any of the top teams on the schedule that likely precludes them from at-large consideration. They're also 12-1 SU at home, but only 2-6 SU on the road (including neutral site games). They have been a bit of a covering machine lately, going 8-1 ATS in January, so it will seem "odd" to some that they are the underdog here.

When Wisconsin lost down in Lincoln earlier this month, the big key was the free throw line. Going only 4 of 10 from the charity stripe is really bad and made even worse by the fact Nebraska was 21 of 28. That was basically the difference in the game. Injuries have also really derailed the Badgers' season. They badly miss both Kobe King and D'Mitrik Trice, both of whom are done for the season. However, in Madison, I still believe they are worth a shot - particularly in this price range. Nebraska won't shoot the ball as well as they did Saturday (57%) against Iowa. Nor will Wisconsin shoot as poorly as they did Friday at Michigan State (36.2%). Also, the one extra day to prepare is key for the home team here. 10* Wisconsin

8* The Citadel (6:00 ET): Let's get it right out in the open that The Citadel is not a good team as you don't get to be a home dog of this magnitude by playing quality basketball over any period of time. Of course, the other side typically has to be pretty good as well and sure enough East Tennessee State is one of 10 teams nationally to be 7-0 SU or better in conference play. The SoCon leaders enter this game at 9-0 SU in conference play, 17-3 SU overall and inside my top 75 overall. That said, this spread is still too high. It's the Buccaneers second road game in a three-day span, plus it'll be just the third time in conference play that they've been asked to lay double digits. Take the points. 

Last year's two meetings did not go well for The Citadel as they lost by 21 and 44 points. But at least they come into this tussle w/ a little bit of "momentum." That stems from an outright win (on the road!) Saturday over Mercer as 16-pt underdogs. The Bulldogs scored 51 pts in the 2H to claim the two-point win, 76-74, snapping a 13-game series losing streak to the Bears. At one point, The Citadel went on a 26-3 run, enabling them to overcome a halftime deficit and take a comfortable lead themselves. Now, the question is how do they follow up? They've only won B2B games one time all season, but a SU win is probably out of the question anyway. However, I'll point to the fact the Bulldogs are only being outscored by about six points per game over the course of the year and have never been a home dog of more than 15 pts the L3 seasons!

East Tennessee State has not lost since 12.16 at Xavier when they only fell by two points. They're ripped off 12 straight wins since and the majority of them have not been close. Yet, their PPG differential for the year is "only" +11.9 per game. They've been a bit of a covering machine so far as a 13-3-2 ATS record is the best win percentage in the country at the betting window among teams that have played at least four lined games. But the only two times they've been a double digit favorite in conference play were at home and this will be only the third time in the L3 seasons that they have been asked to lay 12.5 or more on the road. One of the previous two was here last season, but I just don't see a blowout taking place again tonight. 8* The Citadel

10* Clemson (6:00 ET): Clemson is off a humiliating 61-36 loss here, but it was to Virginia and right now the Hoos are making a lot of teams look bad. It's a severe drop in class in terms of opponent for the Tigers here as they go from facing the best team in the ACC to one of the conference's weaker teams. Georgia Tech has lost three in a row, a streak that began when Virginia held them to only 48 pts. Since then, the Yellow Jackets have dropped a couple road games - at North Carolina and Florida State. All three losses have been by double digits. In spite of their Virginia result, I still view Clemson as potentially a Top 25 team. This is a short number to lay and I'll play accordingly. 

It's important to note that Clemson has not lost B2B games this season. They opened 14-1 SU and have since alternated wins and losses. All three ACC losses have come on the road, one of them by a single point at North Carolina State. (They also lost at North Carolina, in addition to Virginia). As a favorite, they are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. I find it almost impossible to believe their field goal percentage won't increase dramatically from the last game when they shot just 31.6% against Virginia. For the year, they are shooting 47.3% from the field. 

Georgia Tech usually does a decent job of defending, but the last game saw them allow 88 pts on nearly 60 percent shooting. That was to Florida State, who is a pretty comparable team to Clemson in terms of where I have them ranked nationally. Believe it or not, but a win here and Clemson would be tied w/ Duke for third place in the ACC. Georgia Tech resides near the bottom, with only two teams - Wake Forest and Pitt - having fewer wins. The Yellow Jackets have upset Clemson twice in the previous two seasons, so this isn't a game the Tigers will take lightly. 10* Clemson 

8* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): It's certainly not been your typical season in Cedar Falls where Northern Iowa comes in near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, ahead of only conference newbie Valparaiso. Here, the Panthers travel to play the 1st place team in the MVC, Loyola Chicago, which is NOT something I thought I'd be saying before the start of the season. Yet the Ramblers are 17-4 SU overall (7-2 SU vs. MVC). They come into Sunday on a six-game SU and ATS win streak. Interesting is how they've had Northern Iowa's number the past few seasons, going not only 5-0 ATS against them, but 4-1 straight up as well. But they were the favorite in only one of those five games. Earlier this season, they went to Cedar Falls and pulled an upset, 56-50, as five-point dogs. 

Northern Iowa at one point had lost seven in a row and didn't cover a single spread during that time. However, more recently, they've "righted the ship" a bit by winning three of their last four. Earlier in the week, they won at home, 83-72 over Illinois State as 6.5-pt favorites. Their last three wins have all been at home while they still don't have a "true" road win to speak of this season. But let's note the Panthers have outscored their opponents over the course of the season. They are allowing only 62.2 PPG and that should be enough to keep them in any contest. This is the most points they've gotten against any opponent since facing Villanova back in November. 

Loyola has been favored by more than two points just twice during this 6-0 SU/ATS run. Admittedly, they just destroyed Drake, winning on the road by a score of 80-57. What's amazing about that final score is the Ramblers were actually trailing at halftime! In fact, with 9:19 left in the game, the score was tied 51-51. From that point forward, it was all Loyola obviously as they'd go on a 22-2 run and end up shooting 56.7% for the game. I don't see that being repeated today. Yes, the Ramblers did beat Florida back when the Gators were ranked #5 in the country and thus deserve to be taken quite seriously. But, to me, this sets up as a game where we're going to get UNI's best and that should be enough for at least the cover. 8* Northern Iowa

8* Wake Forest (8:00 ET): Tip your cap to the job being done by David Padgett at Louisville as this season easily could have gone off the rails given the embarrassing way it started w/ Rick Pitino having to leave in disgrace. Padgett has the Cardinals at 15-5 SU coming into today, but the squad is off a loss (in overtime) earlier in the week. They fell to Miami 78-75 in what was quite the competitive affair. Full disclosure: I was on Miami there and did not get the cover as the Hurricanes were 4.5-pt favorites. Laying points to what is - on paper - pretty clearly an inferior ACC foe becomes a dangerous spot, however. Wake Forest is coming off games vs. Virginia and Duke and certainly won't be intimidated. Take the points.

At the betting window, these squads have been trending in very different directions. While Louisville is 6-1 ATS its last seven games, Wake Forest has failed to cover six in a row (also 0-6 SU). It's not as if the Demon Deacons haven't been competitive though. Only two of those six losses came by a margin greater than 10 pts and both were vs. Duke. They also lost by only four at North Carolina earlier in the year. Turnovers really hurt WF Tuesday at home vs. Duke as they committed 21 of them. It also didn't help that they were just 5 of 20 from the three-point line. They did outrebound Duke though and will have a chance to do the same to L'ville, who was outrebounded by Miami Wednesday.

The recent ATS records are a little misleading in my estimation. We've already been over how Wake Forest may not be covering, but they're not getting blown out either. With Louisville, it's just the opposite. They may be covering, but they're hardly blowing teams out. Four of their five ACC wins have been by eight pts or fewer, the exception coming against last place Pitt. With two teams having recent stretches of close games, it just seems logical to take the points. Wake Forest won LY's only meeting (in Winston-Salem). Louisville, to this point, has avoided all of the ACC heavyweights, so I take their conference record w/ a grain of salt. As for Wake, they've already played Duke, North Carolina and Virginia a total of four times. 8* Wake Forest

10* Dayton (4:00 ET): The Atlantic 10 "ain't what it used to be" as right now Rhode Island is running away with things. Other than the Rams, there may not be another NCAA Tourney team in the field, unless someone is able to win the Conf Tourney that is. Certainly, the two teams in question here have no other option than cutting down the nets next month at Barclays Center. Dayton is who I'm looking at in this one as they are coming off a one-point win over Davidson on Tuesday. Their opponent, St. Louis, is off a one-point home loss to VCU. Those razor thin margins really don't mean much as - clearly - either team could very easily be off a win or loss. But Dayton has so thoroughly dominated the Billikens in recent years, that I can't look past that. Take the points.

Note that the final margin over Davidson got to one only when the Wildcats made a "meaningless" three-pointer w/ 3.3 seconds remaining. I use the word meaningless in quotes b/c that basket actually cost Dayton the cover (were -2!). The Flyers have now failed to cover three in a row, the other two games being double digit losses to Rhode Island and St. Joe's. Maybe that one win over Davidson doesn't impress you, but it should as the Wildcats are a top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency and Dayton held them to just 64 pts. The Flyers certainly have had no issue defending St. Louis recently, sweeping the previous two season series, never giving up more than 63 pts in any of the four meetings. Three of the wins have come by at least 20 points. 

St. Louis is right w/ Dayton in the middle of the A-10, but is one game worse in the conference standings and has one more loss overall. However, the latest loss may be a difficult one to "get over" as the game w/ VCU went to overtime and saw the Billikens blow a halftime lead. Not only that, but the game only went to OT after VCU hit a three-pointer at the end of regulation. Suffering such a deflating loss can certainly have an effect on a team its next time out, especially one as mediocre as this. The Billikens were going for their third straight victory when they met VCU as they'd previously beaten Duquesne and UMass. A key here is St. Louis is just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5x it has been a home favorite of three points or less. 10* Dayton

8* Duke (2:00 ET): What a matchup we have here as two of the top five teams in the country square off. In my own opinion, there are five teams better than the rest of the field this season - the other three being Villanova, Purdue and Michigan State. So this is a rare time I actually agree w/ the pollsters. Virginia has yet to lose an ACC game as they come into Saturday at 18-1 SU overall (8-0 ACC), that lone loss coming in Morgantown, WV. That, not coincidentally was the only other time before today that they had been an underdog all season. This game taking place in Cameron Indoor is huge for Duke, who is 10-0 SU at home this year with the margin of victory approaching 30 points per game! Lay the points. 

Coming into Saturday, there are still 12 teams that own conference records of 7-0 (SU) or better. Running your entire conference slate is difficult to do, so targeting some of these teams might be a prudent manuever over the next month. In the case of Virginia, they are rolling. They've covered six of their last seven games, the only exception being a seven-point win over Syracuse. All other wins have come by double digits. The last one may have been the most impressive of all. They beat Clemson, the 18th ranked team in the country mind you, 61-36. Yes, you read that correctly. The Hoos held Clemson to 36 points on 31.7% shooting. They did so w/o their best defender, Isaiah Wilkins. Even more impressive is that UVA actually trailed 23-16 in the first half. But Clemson would score just 13 points over the game's final 26 1/2 minutes! 

However, keeping Duke in check in going to be a much taller order. The Blue Devils rank #2 in the country in offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and average 91.6 PPG. At home, they are averaging 96 PPG! So, clearly, something will have to give here. Being that the game is in Durham, I just have to favor Duke. They have scored at least 80 pts in 16 consecutive games. I doubt they'll be able to hit that threshold this afternoon, but they will clearly be the top test Virginia has faced all season. Now the same could be said the other way as well, but Duke is 11-3 SU all-time in top 5 matchups here at home. This is also Virginia's third straight road game and they may be w/o Wilkins again. 8* Duke

8* Baylor (12:00 ET): Today's slate is chock full of Big 12 vs. SEC matchups, an annual event to determine "conference superiority." I can't imagine that you'd get any arguement that the Big 12 isn't the deeper of the two leagues in 2018. Yet, Baylor finds itself as a pretty substantial underdog today at Florida. That probably has a lot to do w/ the fact the Bears have dropped B2B games as well as four of their past five. However, be aware that three of those losses were by seven points or less. As for Florida, they too are off a loss, here in Gainesville to South Carolina as 10.5-pt favorites on Wednesday. Baylor also has a bit of a "hidden edge" here in that they've had two extra days to prepare. I'm taking the points. 

 Last we saw Baylor was Monday as they hosted Kansas State and lost as a small favorite, 90-83. That was a crippling loss as it dropped the Bears to 2-6 SU in Big XII play while at the same time strengthening Kansas State's own NCAA Tournament resume. A win here might be needed for the Bears to impress the selection committee as they're tied for last in the conference. But they did go 10-2 SU vs. the non-conference, including a win over Creighton. Their only non-conf losses were to Xavier and Wichita State. Baylor is a lock to play better defensively tonight than they did on Monday where they allowed K-State to shoot over 57% from the field. Remember, despite that insane percentage, they still only lost by seven. Over the L3 seasons, the Bears are 9-1 ATS after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. 

Florida was perhaps "still celebrating" (its big win at Kentucky last Saturday) when it got upset by South Carolina on Wednesday. Though they led by nine early in the second half, the Gators had no answer for the Gamecocks going 11 of 21 from three-point range. Defending the three-point line has been an issue all season for Florida as they rank dead last in the SEC in that department and a woeful 296th in the country. After climbing into the Top 25 this week, look for it to be a short stay for the Gators. 8* Baylor

10* Oakland (9:00 ET): Valparaiso's defection to the Missouri Valley left a huge void atop the Horizona League entering the year and, right now, two teams are looking to fill it. Both Wright State and Northern Kentucky have started 7-1 SU in conference play w/ the latter's lone loss coming to the former. But we're targeting the Norse here tonight as they host Oakland in what is a revenge spot for the underdog. Oakland was the betting favorite (three points) in the first meeting, at home, which they lost 87-83. Much has changed since that time. Namely, NKU has emerged as a top team in the Horizon w/ the only loss coming to Wright State on Jan 11 (were -10.5 in that game). For Oakland, the loss to NKU was the middle game of what would end up being a three-game skid. But they've since rallied to win four straight coming into tonight. Take the points.

For both teams, this is the first time taking the court since Saturday. Oakland won on the road, beating Detroit 92-86 as nine-point chalk. Leading scorer Kendrick Nunn poured in a career-best 38 pts (8th game w/ 30+ this season!) and the Golden Grizzlies led 50-29 at the half. Northern Kentucky also won on the road, beating Green Bay 77-65 as 11-pt chalk. They too enjoyed a lead larger than the final score most of the way. Both teams are off B2B road wins here, but the fact Oakland is playing a third straight away from home is counteracted by the fact this is also just their third game in 14 days. Northern Kentucky played three games last week.

In the season's first meeting, Oakland led at halftime (47-41) and shot the ball well (52.8%). Looking at the numbers, it's actually pretty tough to explain how the Golden Grizzlies lost! They were outrebounded pretty severely, 38-25, and that obviously led to more second chance pts for NKU. But other than that, it was an even game. Oakland has averaged 85.4 points over the L5 games, making them quite dangerous in the underdog role. Tonight actually marks the 1st time they've been a dog - all season - in Horizon League play! They are also 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court on five or six days rest. 10* Oakland

10* BYU (11:00 ET): As is usually the case, the computers and power ranking systems like St. Mary's a lot more than the pollsters due. I'm not saying than one is necessarily "more right" than the other (though I personally usually side w/ numbers over humans), it's just the reality of the situation. In fact, you could say the same for SMU's main rival in the WCC, Gonzaga, as well. The Gaels just beat the Zags, by the way, 74-71 last week in Spokane. Predictably, there was then a bit of a letdown on Saturday when they only beat Pacific by three. However, coming off a four-game road trip, I view this game as being more dangerous for the Gaels. They're facing the #3 team in the WCC and historically have NOT performed well in this spot (read on for more detail). Take the points. 

BYU is the previously unnamed opponent here and they come in w/ a solid 17-4 SU record. They've won four in a row and five of the last six w/ the lone loss coming by a single point, at Pacific. The Cougars also have revenge for a 10-point home loss to SMU back on 12.30. That result dropped them to 1-5 SU/ATS the L6 head to head meetings. Though they did actually lead that December 30th game at halftime (31-29), the Cougars did not shoot well (40.7 FG%) while the Gaels did (50.9 FG%) and that was the difference. Making only five three-pointers certainly didn't help either. Note that - for the year - BYU is shooting 49.3% from the field, including 38.3% from three-point range. So, I'd expect a better offensive showing in this rematch. In fact, BYU has shot better than 50% in 9 of its previous 10 games and is at 54.5% the L5! 

St. Mary's is now 4-23 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. That's after failing to cover against Pacific on Saturday as 10.5-pt road chalk. That game was close throughout (w/ neither team leading by more than seven points) and the Gaels trailed at halftime. Fortunate for them, Pacific isn't very good. BYU is and obviously comes in w/ a ton of motivation. Yes, the Gaels have won 14 in a row, but BYU has won four straight - all by 15 pts or greater - so they should be feared as a dog, just like SMU was at Gonzaga last Thursday. As a favorite, SMU is just 7-9 ATS this year. 10* BYU

8* Miami FL (8:00 ET): Though many are making the case that it is the Big 12 that is the best conference in the land, if you believe Joe Lunardi, the ACC will be sending the most teams to the Big Dance (9). These are two of them in what, on paper, looks to be an even battle. But two things separate Miami from Louisville in this matchup. One is obviously home court advantage. I'm pretty impressed that the Hurricanes "are where they are" despite having played just seven times so far here in Coral Gables (6-1 SU, only loss is to Duke). Second is defense. Louisville is a good defensive team, but Miami is better and ranks in the top 10 nationally in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). I'll lay the short number here.

Both squads are in off wins. Louisville has won four straight, in fact, and was also on a 5-game ATS run before failing to cover Sunday at home vs. Boston College. I'm impressed that the Cardinals have been able to withstand all the off the court turmoil and remain a tournament team. The ugly departure of Rick Pitino obviously had the potential to really set the program back, but that hasn't really happened. But, away from home, they're just 3-3 straight up. They're also just 1-4 SU vs. the RPI Top 50 w/ the one win coming by four over Florida State. They have not taken on the most challenging of ACC schedules, having avoided Duke, North Carolina and Virginia thus far. They don't even play Duke or UNC until mid-February. They did lead big over B.C. on Sunday before winning by only eight, but that was after a double OT win over Notre Dame and coming from behind to beat Va Tech. 

Miami is off a really nice win at NC State over the weekend where they shot 58 percent from the field. While that kind of offensive display will be difficult, if not impossible, to duplicate here, I don't think they'll have to. As stated earlier, the Canes are top 10 in defensive efficiency. They've outscored visiting teams by over 18 PPG this season. This is their first home game since losing here to Duke, whom they led by 13 in the second half. This is a really critical game for "The U" given they've dropped three of five overall. L'ville is in 2nd place in the ACC right now, but they are pretty clearly NOT the league's 2nd best team. 8* Miami FL

10* Kentucky (9:00 ET): We're not used to seeing Coach Cal in this position very often. His Wildcats have dropped B2B games as well as three of their last five and now find themselves out of the Top 25 for the 1st time since 2014 (when, ironically enough, they ended up making a Final Four run). Remember, this team opened #5 in the country and was in the top 10 as of Christmas Day. But they have yet to beat a single ranked team and aren't even in the top 25 nationally in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Now that we've got all that out of the way, it's time to "buy low." Tonight, UK hosts a Mississippi State squad that's dropped four out of five and is just 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season (4-10 ATS overall). Lay the points.

Until Saturday night, Kentucky had not lost a home game all season. They fell, 66-64 to Florida, the first time in 30 games they lost to a SEC opponent here in Lexington. What are the odds then of it happening two times in a row? I'd say "not likely" considering they did lead the Gators late in that game. Also, in the loss to South Carolina earlier in the week, they had a 14-point lead in the second half. It's got to be especially disheartening to have lost both of those games considering UK held South Carolina and Florida to 37.7% and 33.3% shooting, respectively, from the field. For the season, opponents are barely shooting above 40% against the Wildcats. On offense, they do need to get their act together from behind the arc. 

Fortunately for UK here, Mississippi State does NOT shoot the ball well, particularly on the road. The Bulldogs have won just once away from Starkville this season and are 0-4 SU in "true" road games. You don't have to dig too deep to find out why that is. They average just 58.8 PPG away from home, "thanks" to a 38.1 FG% and they are below 30% from three-point range. So they are really an ideal opponent for Kentucky right now. Furthermore, MSU is just 1-7 ATS this season against teams w/ winning records (Kentucky is 14-5 SU). Last year, UK was a DD favorite in Starkville. This looks like a really good value on Coach Cal and company, who are playing B2B home games for the 1st time in '18. 10* Kentucky

10* Baylor (9:00 ET): The Big XII did not treat me well on Saturday as I came out on the losing end of a couple close games. One of them involved Kansas State, who was able to outlast TCU 73-68 as a 2.5-pt favorite (I had TCU). It was a good week for the Wildcats, who went 2-0 SU, also beating Oklahoma. But both wins came in the Little Apple (at home). Now they hit the road where they have not won since 12.29. Baylor, on the other hand, comes off a deflating three-point loss at Kansas, a place where they still have NEVER won. This sets up as HUGE game as "esteemed" bracketologist Joe Lunardi has both of these teams among the first few OUT of the field of 68 in March. It will be a crippling loss tonight for whomever falls. I'm siding w/ the home team in the "must-win" spot. 

Baylor actually led Kansas by five w/ less than five minutes to go Saturday night. They'd just scored on nine consecutive possessions and rallied back from an 11-pt halftime deficit. Then the wheels came off as the Jayhawks outscored them 14-6 over the final 4:39. The Bears' last five losses to Kansas have come by a combined 20 points, which has to be frustrating. So too is the fact that the team's record isn't better than 12-7 SU, including 2-5 in conference play. Of those five Big 12 losses, three have come by exactly three points each. Six of the team's seven losses have come against Top 25 teams. This is a classic case of a squad being better than its record. Personally, I would have the Bears ranked just outside the top 25 teams in America. 

Kansas State would still be a little lower for me, so factor in the homecourt advantage and Baylor is the play here. The Wildcats have recently come out on the winning end of a number of close games, basically the opposite of Baylor, though they too lost close in Lawrence (to Kansas) - in their case by just a single point. But since 12.20, they've also posted three victories by five points or less. That's in an eight-game span. Key to the Wildcats' victories last week was that they shot the ball exceptionally well; 56.5% and 52.9% respectively from the field in the two games. I don't see that happening tonight on the road. Baylor has only been favored five times this year, but covered four of them. They have NOT shot the ball that well recently, but that should change here at home where they are 38-9 SU the L47 tries. They've outscored visitors this season by an average of almost 19 PPG while holding them below 40% shooting. 10* Baylor

8* Virginia (6:00 ET): I have a ton of respect for Tony Bennett's Cavailers. The Hoos come ranked #2 in the country and there's no doubt they are in fact one of the best teams in the country. Tonight finds them in search of a 10th straight victory. Granted, they're on the road for just the third time in ACC play and 2nd time in a week. But the pointspread has not really been an issue for this team as they've gone 11-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Their lone loss came at West Virginia back on 12.5. So much of their dominance is predicated on their defense, which gives up the fewest number of points per game in the country at 52.6! Wake Forest, one of the weaker teams in the conference, just doesn't stand a chance here. 

Tuesday saw UVA win at Georgia Tech by a score of 64-48. That was the eighth time this season that an opponent failed to score even 50 pts, which is obviously very impressive. During the current win streak, they have not allowed more than 61 pts in any game and 52 or fewer six times. Here, they face a Wake Forest opponent that can score (made 9+ threes in every ACC game), but the Demon Deacons struggle to defend (allowing 76.8 PPG in ACC play). If Virginia comes anywhere close to what WF is allowing in conference play, then this will be an easy win and cover for the favorite. Last year in Charlottesville, they beat the Demon Deacons 79-62. 

Wake Forest is also only shooting 39.4% overall in ACC play. That's not the kind of number you want to have when facing Virginia. They suffered a fourth straight loss on Thursday, 72-63 at NC State as the Deacons gave up the game's final 11 points. The fact that WF is just 3-9 ATS against teams w/ winning records this year does not bode well considering they are about to embark on a six-game stretch of facing teams that either are currently ranked or have previously spent time in the Top 25 this year. Virginia holds teams below 30% shooting from three-point range, so that's one weapon the Demon Deacons likely can't rely on here. 8* Virginia

10* Kentucky (8:15 ET): Not being the favorite in the SEC is certainly irregular in Lexington and coming off a disappointing loss at South Carolina earlier in the week, this shapes up as a very big game for Coach Cal and company. With the ESPN cameras present, I expect a big effort tonight vs. 1st place Florida. Strangely, the Gators come into this game unranked. That had me a little wary of going in on the Wildcats here, but the bottom line is they are a perfect 11-0 SU here at Rupp Arena, outscoring their visitors by 13 points per game. Florida lost its last road game (at Ole Miss) and had a close call in the one before that. It is unlikely that they're going to play anywhere near the level they did vs. Arkansas (in Gainesville) earlier this week. Lay the points.

Tuesday's loss to South Carolina simply should not have happened as Kentucky blew a 14-point second half lead. They led the Gamecocks to 37.7% shooting for the game, including 5 of 23 from three-point range. But it was the Wildcats' own poor shooting from distance that helped doom them as they went 1 for 11 from behind the arc, virtually all of the attempts coming from Kevin Knox. This being a Coach Cal squad, there's a lot of freshman, but unlike past seasons, the head coach has yet to settle in on a lineup. Part of that is PG Quade Green has missed the L2 games w/ a back injury. He's listed as a game time decision for tonight. Also, freshman Jarred Vanderbilt is just getting going. The team was significantly better on defense when he was on the court Tuesday. I just can't see a team this talented struggling offensively again the way it did vs. South Carolina (a top defensive team, mind you). The Wildcats scored only three points over the game's final six minutes and were outscored 36-14 over the final 12:28.

Meanwhile, Florida ripped Arkansas on Wednesday, using a fast start as the catalyst. It also helped that KeVaughn Allen went for 28 points. But the Gators have struggled away from home this season, going just 5-3 straight up and that's primarily due to the defensive end as they are allowing 78.6 points per game in those contests. As I mentioned earlier, they lost at Ole Miss last weekend and before that beat Missouri by only two. Kentucky is a far greater challenge obviously and one I don't think they'll be able to overcome. 10* Kentucky

8* TCU (4:00 ET): Here's another Big 12 battle on Saturday. Check the opening of my analysis on Oklahoma-Oklahoma State for my take on the depth of the conference. Here we have two of the "mid-tier" teams in the conference, though that distinction undersells what TCU has accomplished this season. I have the Horned Frogs ranked in my top 20, despite a 2-4 record in conference play, and the pollsters have them in the Top 25 as well. They picked up a big win earlier in the week, literally, as they routed Iowa State 96-73, snapping a three-game losing skid. Today they pay a visit to a Kansas State team that should be in prime letdown mode after upsetting Oklahoma earlier in the week. Take the points. 

I talked about the Oklahoma-Kansas State result in the analysis for the other Big 12 game in the package, but just to rehash, the Wildcats were able to hold Trae Young, the nation's leading scorer, in check in the 87-69 win as 2-pt dogs. They also forced 20 Sooners' turnovers. Coming off a one-point loss to Kansas last weekend, that was a pretty impressive performance from Kansas State. But can they follow up? History says "no" as they are 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 80+ points the previous game. Furthermore, they shot 56.5% from the field against the Sooners and that's not likely to be repeated here, even though TCU is a weaker defensive team. It's still early, but the Wildcats have yet to string together consecutive conference wins. 

TCU comes in at 14-4 SU overall and all four losses have been by five points or fewer, two of them in overtime. Taking a team that has yet to be blown out, as an underdog, certainly seems like a prudent maneuver. Jamie Dixon's team entered the Iowa State game w/o starting PG Jaylen Fisher (out indefinitely), but it didn't matter as backup Alex Robinson came in and filled the void. All Robinson did was dish out a school record 17 assists. So the Horned Frogs certainly seem okay the position. Kansas State is also w/o its starting PG, Kamau Stokes, who is also listed as out indefinitely. His backup, Barry Brown, is averaging 24.7 PPG. So this one may very well come down to the battle of backup point guards. I'll still side w/ TCU though as they have been the better team all season and remain an underrated side. 8* TCU

8* Oklahoma (2:00 ET): Just in case you hadn't been paying close attention, the Big 12 is absolutely stacked this year. The league could send as many as 8 of its 10 members to the Big Dance in March, which would be quite the remarkable achievement. It's also somewhat of a "top-heavy" conference w/ five teams currently ranked in my top 18, none of whom have emerged as the clear favorite (let's be honest though, would anyone be shocked if Kansas wins the regular season crown again?). Oklahoma is one of those five teams and is off a SU loss here, perhaps its worst of the season, 87-69 at Kansas State. But this afternoon, the Sooners find themselves playing one of the two "also-rans" in the conference, that being Bedlam rival Oklahoma State. I'll lay the short number on the road.

OU has lost just three times this year, all to quality opponents. The infamous "Octagon of Doom" in Manhattan, KS is a tough place to play, so there's no shame in the Sooners losing to Kansas State earlier in the week. But it clearly was a bad performance as leading scorer Trae Young had arguably his roughest night of his outstanding freshman campaign. The Sooners' guard was held to only 20 pts, his fewest in a game since the opener, on 8 of 21 shooting. "I didn't do very well tonight. I played terrible," the freshman guard said. "I blame a lot of the loss on me. All of the loss on me. I didn't play very well tonight," said Young after the game. Obviously, I would expect him to be significantly better tonight. It was 20 turnovers, more than anything else, that prevented OU from coming anywhere close to its scoring average of 93.6 PPG (#1 in the nation!) against KSU.

Now Oklahoma is absolutely NOT the 4th best team in the country (current ranking) right now. They'll drop b/c of Tuesday's loss, however, this remains an ideal bounce back situtation. They've already faced Oklahoma State once and put up 109 pts on them in Norman. Young had 27 pts, 10 assists and 9 rebounds in that game. Keep in mind that not only does Young lead the country in scoring (29.5 PPG), he is also #1 in assists (9.8). Oklahoma State is just 1-6 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77+ points per game. Though they haven't played since Monday (lost 76-60 at Baylor), having to take a bus home from Waco (inclement weather) does the Pokes no favors coming into this one. 8* Oklahoma