8* Georgetown (12:00 ET): Patrick Ewing's Hoyas are off an absolutely humiliating loss to Villanova earlier in the week, as they fell 88-56. While there's no shame in losing to one of the best teams in the country, doing so by that kind of margin (at home no less!) is clearly no good. But today, G'town not only gets to stay at home, but face an opponent they've already beaten. In fact, I took them +6.5 when they went to the Big Apple and beat St. John's outright, 69-66, on January 9th. That happens to be the Hoyas' last win as they'd go onto lose at Seton Hall last Saturday, then came the Villanova debacle. But St. John's is in much worse shape right now as the Red Storm remain winless in Big East play at 0-7 SU. Lay the small number.

Georgetown was actually one of the last remaining unbeatens nationally as they opened the season 8-0 SU. But few took them seriously as they took on an incredibly weak non-conference schedule, one that saw them play just a single "true" road game. Sure enough, we've watched them go 4-6 SU the L10 games, including a 2-5 mark in Big East games. But the perception that the Hoyas padded their schedule was well-known and something that I believe created a "desire" to play against them, even at inflated prices. They haven't covered the last two games, but before that they were 5-1-1 ATS their L7. Coming off a terrible loss like the one they took against 'Nova and already having beaten St. John's, I think the Hoyas are pretty clearly undervalued in this spot.

Of course, the Hoyas' recent level of losing does not compare to that of St. John's, who last won a game before X-Mas! There have been numerous close calls in this 0-7 start to Big East play (five losses by 7 pts or less), but that actually works against them here as I seriously doubt they'll be able to match Wednesday's effort at Xavier where they shot 50% from the field, including 11 of 24 from three-point range. This is also the second of B2B road games. Meanwhile, G'town isn't about to let another opponent shoot 60% (like Villanova did Weds) and their own shooting is set to drastically improve as well (four straight games below 40%!). Consider the Hoyas were able to beat St. John's the first time despite shooting only 33.3% and that was on the road! 8* Georgetown

10* Over St. Bonaventure/Davidson (7:00 ET):  Something has got to give w/ the total in this Atlantic 10 matchup as one of the participants (St. Bonaventure) has gone Over in five straight games and the other (Davidson) has gone Under in five straight. In terms of wins and losses, the two squads are also trending in opposite directions. The Bonnies have dropped three of their last four, including a 14-pt loss at Rhode Island their last time out. Davidson, meanwhile, has won four straight and the last three have all come in dominant fashion as in by 27 points or more! Therefore, it certainly seems a bit odd that the Wildcats would be favored by so little on their homecourt Friday night, but I'm banking on them giving up far more points here than they did against either GW or Fordham, their previous two opponents. Take the Over.

Davidson has played only five home games so far and won them all. They've outscored opponents by an average of 25.6 points in those five games. On the road, they certainly had no problem w/ Fordham on Sunday, winning that game 75-45 as eight-point chalk. It was their second straight game holding the opponent to 45 points, which is "Virginia-like," however, we should note that those two opponents shot 32.7% and 37.2% from the field, respectively. In regards to that Virginia reference, the Hoos rank #1 in the country in defensive efficiency while the Wildcats aren't even the top 100! They actually rank much higher in offensive efficiency (39th), which surprised me. 

Equally as surprising is that St. Bonaventure ranks better in defensively in terms of efficiency. But they still average a healthy 76.7 PPG. They just gave up 87 pts in the loss to Rhode Island Saturday and it's not as if the Rams shot the lights out (only 46.8%). The Bonnies, picked to finish 2nd in the A-10 before the season, have been a disappointment thus far but I wouldn't give up on them just yet. They've averaged nearly 80 PPG their L5. Throw in that Davidson has averaged 83.0 PPG at home this season and we have what should be quite the high-scoring contest. 10* Over St. Bonanventure/Davidson

10* Michigan (9:00 ET): Coming off their huge upset of Michigan State last weekend, I played against the Wolverines on Monday night and was successful in doing so. They barely got by a short-handed Maryland squad (won 68-67 as 8-pt favorites), needing two free throws in the closing seconds just to pull out the SU victory. They even trailed by 10 at halftime and remember, the game was in Ann Arbord. But I can look past that as it was a pretty obvious letdown spot for the now-ranked (#23) Wolverines. Now that it's out of the way, they can concentrate on what appears to be - on paper - a pair of very winnable games coming up. Going back to early December, Michigan has lost only one game and that was by a single point to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now. They won't lose here. 

Nebraska is the opponent tonight and the Cornhuskers are coming off three consecutive close games, two of them wins. They edged Illinois 64-63 (as 4-pt chalk) on Monday. Like Michigan's one-point victory that same night, the game was not decided until the final seconds. In Nebraska's case, it was a running three-pointer from James Palmer right before the buzzer sounded that gave them the win. That came on the heels of an overtime loss to Penn State last Friday where I once again faded the Cornhuskers. That was their 1st loss of the year in Lincoln, but I'll continue to maintain this team isn't all that impressive. They've really struggled offensively here in Big 10 play, connecting on only 39.5% of their field goal attempts. That's bad news against a Michigan team allowing just 62.8 PPG for the season.

You'd have to go all the way back to the start of the season to find the last time the Wolverines failed to cover in consecutive games. They're 2-0 SU/ATS thus far as a road favorite, including a win at Iowa earlier this month. Nebraska is still dealing w/ changes to its starting lineup as HC Tim Miles inserted two new starters for the Illinois game and they didn't really yield anything in the way of positive results. After getting a (needed?) scare from Maryland earlier in the week, I'll lay the points w/ Michigan here as they are simply the better team in this matchup. 10* Michigan

8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): The Big East is a top-heavy league this year w/ four perceived NCAA Tournament "locks," these being two of them. Ironically, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Creighton ended up finishing ahead of Seton Hall in the standings when all was said and done. But, here, I think the Blue Jays are laying too many points. Sure, they should be highly motivated after being routed by Xavier over the weekend (92-70). But this is a Seton Hall team that's already beaten them once, 90-84 as five point favorites, and given that result and corresponding spread, I'm a little "miffed" by the oddsmakers call for this one. Revenge can often be overrated in this sport and if Creighton does win here, it would likely be by the slimmest of margins.

Prior to beating crushed at Xavier Saturday, Creighton's only loss in its previous 10 games was the one to Seton Hall. The Pirates have really had their number the last couple seasons, taking four of the previous five meetings. The last one, which saw both teams come in on the fringes of the Top 25, saw Seton Hall rally back from a 13-point 2H deficit. Since then, the Pirates' ranking has only continued to rise (currently #19). Creighton, meanwhile, won its next four games, but then was severely outclassed by Xavier. The Blue Jays committed 20 turnovers in the loss and second leading scorer Khyri Thomas was 0 for 8 from the field. This team is 40-18 ATS the last 58x it has been favored, plus 11-0 SU at home this year (averaging 93.5 PPG). So I understand, it's somewhat scary to fade them in this spot. But, realize that Seton Hall is 22-8 ATS the L30x it has been an underdog!

There have been only two instances of the Pirates getting points this season. They won both outright. Both were narrow wins, at Butler and at Louisville, but that's impressive nonetheless. Now, Seton Hall was recently routed as well, losing 84-64 at Marquette last week. But they quickly bounced back to take care of Georgetown, 74-61 as 12-pt chalk, on Saturday. The Pirates come in averaging a healthy 80.0 PPG themselves, so it will be difficult to defeat them by any kind of margin. These teams just seem so close that it seems foolish to want to lay points. 8* Seton Hall

8* Temple (6:00 ET): This is not the same Temple team we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. They have just one conference win; ironically it came at SMU, who had a 33-game home win streak at the time. That's probably the most shocking singular result we've seen in AAC play so far this season. Unfortunately for the Owls though, they couldn't follow up. Saturday saw them lose here at home, in overtime and at the buzzer to UCF, 75-72. They were 7.5-pt favorites as Memphis had not won a road game all season prior to that. In their last five games, the Owls have lost by three points or fewer three times. Similar to yday's winner on Northern Iowa, I find it "curious" that a team near the bottom of their conference would be favored like this. It worked yday, so I'll lay it again!

Tulsa hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire either. They come into tonight's game on a three-game losing skid. They did just take Wichita State to the limit on Saturday, losing only 72-69 as 12.5-pt home dogs. But I say it's fair to question what the Golden Hurricane will have left "in the reserve" here. They led by 10 in the first half, but attempting only five free throws (for the game!) really hurt. Also, while Tulsa may have started 3-0 in AAC play, let's remember how badly they were beaten last week in their most recent road game. It was a 104-71 loss at Houston. Their lone "true" road win this year came at Tulane on New Year's Eve. 

Temple actually has some revenge to exact here as they lost LY's only meeting, 70-68, right here in Philly. They also lost the second meeting of 2016, by 19, at Tulsa. With so many close calls in a 1-6 (SU) stretch, I have to believe the worm will soon "turn" for the Owls. Their shooting also has to improve, right? (Been below 35% three of the last four games). Tulsa allowed its opponents to shoot 55.2% and 50% in its previous two road games. Though they lost close last time out, the Golden Hurricane pulled off a number of close wins earlier in the year (beat UConn in 2OT), so their record could easily be worse. After playing well and coming up short against Wichita State, I see this being a major letdown spot on the road. 8* Temple

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Needless to say, it had been a very bad stretch of results for Northern Iowa prior to Saturday's 81-76 win and cover (were 4-pt favorites) over Missouri Valley newbie Valaparaiso. They'd lost seven in a row and four of those (all to MVC opponents) had come by seven pts or less. Truth be told, the Panthers' RPI (outdated metric) was always a bit misleading anyway, but still, no one expected these kind of struggles once conference play hit. Good news tonight though; they'll host perennial MVC doormat Drake, a team whose number UNI has had for many years now. The last four matchups - whether your're talking SU or ATS - have all gone the Panthers way and I think they'll make it five straight after tonight. Lay the short number.

Drake actually comes into tonight playing pretty well as they've won six of their last seven overall and are in first place in the Missouri Valley (5-1). Ironically, their lone conference loss came at the hands of Valparaiso, who is the only MVC team that UNI has beaten. But the Bulldogs have had a much different fortune in close games than has UNI, that being they're 3-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far. It's pretty telling that the last place team in a conference would be favored over the first place team, even at home, isn't it? Drake used a strong 1st half to blow by Evansville over the weekend, 81-65, as they shot 54% from the floor. However, I think you still have to worry about this team away from home where they're just 4-8 SU (7-0 at home) and allowing 81.1 PPG. That includes "true" road games as well as neutral site affairs. 

Prior to beating Valpo, Northern Iowa had lost three in row here in Cedar Falls. That's after winning their first seven here. The key here will be pace of play. Drake is the most efficient offense team in the conference (so far) while Northern Iowa plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country. I simply can't see teams continuing to make over 40% of their three-point shots against the Panthers moving forward. Nor can I see Drake continuing to shoot as well as it has to this point. Note that, at home, UNI still is allowing only 57 PPG. 10* Northern Iowa

8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Truth be told, I got very lucky w/ the Seminoles on Saturday. Hosting Syracuse, they blew a 10-pt halftime lead and had to go to overtime. But OT was actually a massive break for me as I was laying the points and for most of the second half, it appeared as if they had little shot to cover. The same held true in OT. Thankfully, the game then went into double OT and that's where the 'Noles took over, outscoring the Orange by 11 and getting the shocking cover. Playing on the road 48 hrs later hardly seems like an ideal spot to follow up w/ a play on them, but Boston College I believe is "ripe for the picking here." The Eagles faced Dartmouth over the weekend, making this a large step up in class for them.

B.C. had lost three of four in ACC play prior to beating Dartmouth on Saturday. That includes a 30-pt loss at North Carolina in their last conference game. Dartmouth, predictably, was a much easier task, though the Eagles only led by three at halftime. They took over though after the break, thanks to guard Ky Bowman. Now B.C. did beat Duke here in Chesnut Hill earlier this season. They're 10-1 SU at home overall, outscoring opponents by 13 PPG. That one home loss came to Clemson, by four, right after the New Year. They've already faced most of the ACC heavyweights, not to mention a very good Texas Tech team in the non-conf portion of the schedule. However, I think it's important to remember this was just a nine-win team last season (already 12 wins TY!) including a 2-16 SU record in ACC play. I'm not sure they've improved to the point we should regularly expect them to be winning.

Florida State should still find itself in the Top 25 when the new poll comes out. That's despite sustaining close losses to both Miami and Louisville prior to outlasting Syracuse. There is some concern here w/ leading scorer Terrance Mann potentially out due to a concussion. But the 'Noles are deep enough to overcome that, at least against this opponent. In last year's lone matchup w/ B.C., they won by 32. Has that much really changed in one year's time? The 'Noles were 19-pt favorites for that matchup as well. They have covered 7 of the 10 times they have been favored this season. 8* Florida State

10* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Big 10 has become a lot more wide open, thanks to the sudden struggles of Michigan State. Michigan is one of the teams that recently beat Sparty, doing so on Saturday as they went into East Lansing and prevailed 82-72 as 9.5-pt underdogs. That impressive win for the Wolverines came on the heels of them losing by only one to mighty Purdue. Now comes the inevitable letdown though. It certainly seems dangerous to lay points w/ the Maize and Blue right now, given the emotion involved from the last two games. Maryland won't be lacking in motivation here as it was embarrassed at Ohio State on Thursday, 91-69. Having had the weekend off is a nice edge for the Terps. Take the points.

Maryland has actually suffered two bad defeats in its last three games, the other coming at Michigan State. But other than that, they've played well. They'd won eight of nine heading into the Ohio State game where they shot just 36.7% from the floor while allowing the Buckeyes to make 56.1% of their field goal attempts. Sure enough, bad defense was also the culprit in the loss to Michigan State, but the good news is the Terrapins are 9-2 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. They just covered in this spot, in between the losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, beating Iowa 91-73 last Sunday. Injuries have taken a big toll on this team recently, but I think the extra time off will be a big "boon" Monday.

Maryland hasn't played many close games recently, but they have been involved in six that were decided by six points or less this year. That includes two Big 10 victories, over Illinois and Penn State. Michigan comes in red hot, having won 8 of 9 w/ the only loss coming to Purdue. But this just seems like a good spot to fade as they're off a huge upset over a rival. They didn't cover their last game as a favorite, beating Illinois by only 10. Also, the last three meetings between these two have all been decided by seven points or less. Maryland won both games last year and I fully anticipate a close game at Crisler Arena tonight. In beating Michigan State, Michigan saw Sparty sink only three of 13 three-point attempts. Maryland will be more prolific than that tonight. 10* Maryland

10* UMass (5:00 ET): Looking back at the preseason projections, St. Joe's probably wasn't banking on coming in as an underdog to UMass (even here in Amherst) nor being only 7-8 SU at this point of the season. Keep in mind they recently beat both VCU and St. Bonaventure as well, albeit both at home. The Hawks have been one of the A-10's bigger disappointments thus far and that continued earlier this week when they were beaten by George Mason at the buzzer. Now they find themselves playing a second straight road game for the first time since November. Sure, they're 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, but they've still been outscored by an average of over five points per game in those contests. They have just two wins away from home all year (2-7 SU) w/ the lone "true" road win coming all the way back in the 2nd game against IL-Chicago.

So as you can sense, I'll be on the other side Sunday afternoon. UMass comes in off an 86-79 win over LaSalle (here at home) and an upset at Dayton before that. Not a ton was expected of the Minutemen coming into the season, but they are 8-2 SU at home and that's where this game is taking place! Now the teams has gone to overtime twice in it last three games, winning one and losing the other. They had to overcome a 21-pt deficit against LaSalle on Wednesday and needed a program-record 44 pts from Luwane Pipkins to do it, eventually prevailing 86-79 in OT. That win came on the heels of another come from behind effort, this one at Dayton as eight-point underdogs (won 62-60). Those two close wins were long overdue as previously the Minutemen had gone only 1-5 SU in games decided by six points or less, or overtime. 

I look for UMass to have a strong game offensively here. They already are shooting 47.6% from the floor at home this year, including 39.5% from three-point range. St. Joe's isn't exactly what I'd call "stout" defensively as they allow 76.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the Hawks have somehow been able to average 77.8 PPG in conference play despite barely shooting 40% from the floor. That isn't likely to continue. Coming off a loss at the buzzer, you have to question the Hawks mindset here and I think they'll struggle to contain Pipkins and the Minutemen's other top scorer, Carl Pierre, as well. 10* UMass

8* Oregon (2:00 ET): The Ducks came up big for me on Thursday, upsetting what was a highly overrated Arizona State team. Naturally, you'd call for a letdown here, but they're getting points against an Arizona team that has its own set of problems right now. Wildcats HC Sean Miller recently went on the record, saying he can't get his team "to play for him" and "can't reach" them. I don't think a solitary win over Oregon State (didn't cover) Thursday at home was the cure-all either. Now you may be wondering what Miller is taking about considering his team is 13-4 SU and ranked 17th in the country. But more was expected from this team, even if they still should be considered the "class" of the Pac 12. Take the points here. 

Back to back wins over ranked opponents, both on the road no less, would obviously be huge for Oregon. Remember the Ducks were a Final Four team last year. Now they did lose a ton from that team, but HC Dana Altman is 30-15 ATS the L3 seasons in Pac 12 play and 26-9 ATS off a conference win. The Ducks destroyed Arizona State on the interior Thursday, outscoring the Sun Devils 38-16 in the paint and 15 offensive rebounds led to 15 second chance points. They are the 1st road team to win in Tempe this season. Now can they turn the trick in Tucson? History says "yes" as they are 21-5 ATS their L26 games against teams averaging 77+ PPG (Arizona comes in averaging 82.5). Oregon averages 81.3 PPG themselves, so they can hang.

Arizona is only 5-10 ATS when favored this season. They're also just 2-8 ATS against teams that have winning records. So you can start to understand Miller's criticism. It came after a loss at Colorado last Saturday. They never led in that game and it simply wasn't as close as the 80-77 final suggests as the Wildcats shot just 30 percent in the 1st half and fell behind 45-29. The 62-53 win over Oregon State was also a tad bit misleading as they trailed at the half and did not start to pull away until the final six minutes of the game. It helped that they were facing a drastically inferior opponent that shot only 39.3% from the floor. But Arizona only scored 62 and like Oregon State, the Ducks employ a zone (which always seems to befuddle the Wildcats). Also, the Ducks won't be lacking in confidence here as they won their last visit to Tucson, which ended Arizona's 49-game home win streak. 8* Oregon 

10* Florida State (2:00 ET): This is a spot that I'm all too apt to jump on as the home favorite is off a SU loss (in that same role) its last time out. Florida State lost to Louisville on Wednesday, 73-69 as 6.5-pt chalk, but lucky for them Syracuse is not Louisville. This is a really crucial game for the 'Noles as they've dropped three of four (every loss by 7 pts or less), but note the one win during this stretch came over North Carolina (here in Tallahassee). The L'ville loss was their first at home all season. This is a team I still have ranked in my top 30 nationally. As for Syracuse, not only are they not Louisville, they're not even your usual Orange squad under Jim Boeheim. They've lost three straight ACC games following the usual Jim Boeheim cupcake-filled non-conference schedule (bereft of "true" road games). Lay the points 

For the record, it's not just me that thinks highly of the Seminoles. They come into this game ranked #23 in the country (loss occured after latest poll was released). The loss also snapped a 28-game home win streak. It's not like they came out of the gates slowly either. They had a 13-pt halftime lead and it was looking like they were well on their way to another home victory. But after connecting on 18 of 39 FG attempts in the 1st half, they went just 8 of 26 from the field in the 2H. It also didn't help that they committed six turnovers in the first six minutes after halftime. This is a squad that averages 83.6 PPG overall and 88.9 at home. So, they were held well under their scoring average. I don't expect that to be the case for a second straight game.

Like FSU, Syracuse's three ACC losses have all been by seven points or less. The win came against Virginia Tech. Despite a relatively strong defense (trademark zone!), the Orange can't seem to hit "water from a boat" themselves as they're off B2B sub-40% efforts from the field, averaging just 55 PPG. If you can't win a game, at home, where you hold the opposition to a 30.0 FG% (like the 'Cuse did vs. Notre Dame), then I don't know what to say. Even against said zone, I expect FSU to shoot better from three-point range than they have in their L2 games (27.1%). This is a brutal spot for the Orange, who simply lack offensive firepower, three days after playing on the road at Virginia. They got all of ZERO bench pts in that game. That won't cut it.  10* Florida State

10* Nebraska (7:00 ET): The Big 10 weekend slate gets started a little early in Happy Valley as Penn State hosts Nebraska Friday night. In what is a VERY top-heavy league this year, these two squads are presumed for the "middle of the pack," but Nebraska comes into tonight actually tied for 4th at 3-2 SU (12-6 overall). Penn State has the same overall record, but is 2-3 SU in Big 10 play. Granted, the Nittany Lions' three losses have all come by margins of six points or fewer, but they've also yet to play either of the two heavyweights - Michigan State and Purdue. Those two are who handed Nebraska its two losses and both games were on the road. Last time out, the Cornhuskers upended Wisconsin (in Lincoln) 63-59 as 1.5-pt faves. 

The 'Huskers led by as many as 13 in the 2H vs. Wisconsin in what (as you can see by the line) was no upset. Now, free throws were a key in the win as Nebraska went 21 of 28 from the line while Wisconsin was just 4 of 10. They probably can't count on such an edge taking place here tonight, on the road. State College has also not been kind to them as they've won just one of their previous six visits here. But might this team be a little different as it has gone 3-2 SU against five NCAA Tourney teams from LY? This has been a strong spread team as well (11-5 ATS overall) and they play defense too. Their last three opponents have been held to 42.4%, 44.3% and 29.2% overall from the floor and all were Big 10 teams. Even better is that none of the three shot better than 29% from three-point range (key!).

While Nebraska was beating Wisconsin on Tuesday, Penn State lost to Indiana despite outshooting the Hoosiers, pretty drastically. The Nittany Lions finished 50% from the floor while IU was at just 40%. How then, do we explain that result? Well, the bench was outscored 25-1 and IU made 18 of its 22 free throws while Penn State made just 12 of its 18. Also, the Nittany Lions committed 14 turnovers to the Hoosiers' nine. But consider this: PSU's top two players - Carr and Stevens - combined for 48 pts and they still lost (on an overall good shooting night for the team). Nebraska managed to defeat Wisconsin despite shooting only 5 of 19 from three-point range. This spread is too high. Penn State, keep in mind, lost to Rider back on 12.22. 10* Nebraska

10* Oregon (10:00 ET): I think I speak for many when I say that I never took Arizona State seriously, not even as the Sun Devils could still claim to be one of the few remaining unbeatens in the country. They got as high as #2 in the polls, but this is barely a Top 25 team in my opinion. So, OK, they did win at Kansas in their lone "true" non-conference road game. They also upset Xavier here in Tempe. But a team that was projected to finish as low as sixth this year in the Pac 12 has predictably come back "down to Earth" now that conference play has commenced. ASU lost B2B games at Arizona and Colorado to bookend the New Year and followed that up w/ a close call in Salt Lake earlier this week (beat Utah by three). I'll take the points here as the (now) #11 team in the country is still due to tumble down the rankings a bit more. 

Oregon comes into this game well-rested. They're also angry as last Friday saw them fall to rival Oregon State, in Corvallis, 76-64 as 2.5-pt favorites. It was the second time in three Pac 12 games that the Ducks lost outright as favorites as they also lost at home to Utah in the opener (beat Colorado in between). This will be the 1st time in conference play that they are getting points. It's only the third time all season that the Ducks have been a dog. They're 8-3 ATS in that role the L3 seasons, not to mention they're also 6-1 ATS the L7x they have taken the court w/ five or six days rest. They've also been exceptional against high scoring teams such as ASU, going 20-5 ATS their L25 games vs. opponents that average 77+ PPG.

Now Arizona State has enjoyed its own success at the betting window this year, covering all but two lined games, one of those coming when they were 38-pt favorites. They're also 9-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game and haven't lost at home. This is their first time hosting in Pac 12 play as the first three games were all on the road. That said, their recent shooting decline is a concern and I don't think a simple return to Tempe is a "cure-all." Oregon (a Final Four team LY, remember!) can both rebound (+6.0 rpg) and defend (opponents shooting below 40% for the year) and that can keep an underdog in any game. 10* Oregon

10* USC (10:00 ET): This is a classic set up w/ the favorite off a SU loss (as road favorites) taking on an underdog off a PAIR of outright wins as a dog. Things aren't going quite as planned for Andy Enfield's USC Trojans as they'll enter this game w/ only an 11-6 SU record. This is a team that was predicted to finish 2nd in the Pac 12, prior to the start of this campaign. But they've already lost twice in conference play, one of those coming at Stanford (77-76) their last time out. The Trojans were five-point favorites in that contest. They'll be favored again tonight as they host a Colorado team that has to be feeling pretty good about itself following upsets of Arizona State and Arizona. But both upsets took place in Boulder. Not here. Lay the points. 

USC's loss to Stanford was as brutal as it gets as the Cardinal's Deajon Davis hit a 50-foot desperation heave at the buzzer to win the game. The Trojans had led by 11 at the half and by as many as 15. Considering Stanford was coming off a double OT game three nights prior, blowing that kind of lead - even on the road - should not happen. Southern Cal is now just 5-6 SU its last 11 games, including a home loss (in OT) to Princeton. That said, this is still a good offensive team that averages 83.5 PPG at home. They have three losses by two points or less or in overtime. I anticipate them going on a bit of run here w/ a favorable stretch of games this month, making tonight a good "buy low" situation. Following a SU loss this year, the Trojans have gone 4-1 ATS w/ the avg MOV coming by double digits.

Meanwhile, now would be an opportune time to "sell high" on Colorado. As stated above, the Buffaloes just upset both Arizona schools and did it as nine (Arizona St) and 8.5 (Arizona) pt underdogs respectively. ASU was one of the final teams to suffer a loss nationally, but is way overrated. Arizona is also struggling right now, something their own HC will readily admit. A huge key here is venue as "true" road games have been unkind to CU. They are 0-4 SU/ATS in them, including double digit losses at both Oregon and Oregon State in Pac 12 play. So, it's been a very different Buffaloes team we've seen on the road compared to Boulder. This game is in L.A., so it's a no-brainer. 10* USC

8* Georgetown (6:30 ET): There seems to be a bit of a desire (from the general public) to play AGAINST Pat Ewing's Hoyas these days. That probably has a lot to do w/ all we've heard about just how weak the Hoyas' non-conference schedule was. Ironically, G'town wasn't a good bet in the non-conference as they often faced lofty spreads and weren't covering them. But now that Big East play has started and they're a dog every time, we've seen more ATS success. Yes, they were severely routed by Creighton over the weekend, 90-66, as six-point home dogs. But prior to that, they'd gone 2-0-1 ATS in conference games, upsetting DePaul and losing to Butler (2 OT) by just two points (pushed as nine-point dogs at Marquette). Here, Ewing is fortunate to be facing St. John's at a time when the Red Storm have lost four in a row and will be w/o second leading scorer Marcus LoVett. Take the points.

The build up for this game will center around the two coaches, Ewing and Chris Mullin, each of whom led their respective alma maters to greatness over 30 years ago. That makes sense, but also masks the fact both teams are struggling right now. St. John's, like G'town, is off an ugly loss as they were beaten at home (as seven-point favorites), 91-74 by DePaul. The Red Storm have played two Big East home games thus far and lost them by a combined 39 points. They're off to an 0-4 start in conference play and that is largely owed to some terrible defensive efforts. They're giving up 84.5 PPG on 49.8% shooting in league play. There seemed to be a real lack of effort at defending the three-point line vs. DePaul.

G'town is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 17-7 ATS its last 24. St. John's clearly misses LoVett (knee) and as a result one player (Shamorie Ponds) has had to carry the scoring burden. Ponds has really struggled to shoot the ball of late, including a 7 of 24 effort in the loss to DePaul. Again, the Red Storm just lost - at home - by 17 points to DePaul. That is not good. Georgetown has a sizable (pun intended!) edge in the frontcourt and I anticipate them exploiting that. The Hoyas might never have been as good as their record this season, but they are worth taking plus the points here in what could be an outright upset. 8* Georgetown

10* Iowa (8:00 ET): Maryland is a team that would find itself squarely on the bubble if this were March as most "Bracketology experts" have them right on the cutline as one of the final four teams in the field of 68. However, the Terps certainly did NOT look like a NCAA Tournament team earlier in the week when they were thrashed (by 30!) at top ranked Michigan State. Iowa isn't even thinking Tourney right now after it dropped B2B home games to Ohio State and Michigan. Just when it appeared as if the Hawkeyes had things turned around (five straight wins to end 2017), they drop a pair in Iowa City to start the new year. They have yet to win a single Big 10 game (0-4 SU!), so expect a desperate dog tonight in College Station. Take the points.

Maryland is 2-2 vs. the Big 10 and 13-4 SU overall. The two losses did come to Purdue and Michigan State, not only the two best teams in the league, but two of the best teams in the country. However, the two wins are by a combined seven points, one of them (at Illinoi) by only one. That's significant b/c Illinois is the only other Big Ten team besides Iowa w/o a win in league play. Every Terrapins' Big 10 tilt, besides the last one, was close. Thursday in East Lansing, however, they were completely decimated in a 91-61 defeat. They had no answer for the Spartans' depth or shooting (57.7% overall), which included a season-high 16 three-point FGs made. Will tonight's game be a significant drop in class for Maryland? Certainly. But might the Terps also still be "licking their wounds?" Probably. 

Iowa has its issues defensively as they've given up at least 73 points in four consecutive games and 92 the last time out, vs. Ohio State. This is a young and not particularly deep team (though they do play 11), but still, falling behind by as many as 17 pts (in the first half) in your own gym is pretty unacceptable. It was the second straight game where the Hawkeyes got off to a bad start. They also allowed the Buckeyes to shoot 53.0% from the field. But this looks to be a generous spread as the Hawkeyes haven't really been a dog of this magnitude, save for once, this season. Maryland has been good at home so far, but they've yet to blow a Big 10 opponent out. 10* Iowa

8* North Carolina (1:00 ET): In all due respect to the Big XII matchup between WVU and Oklahoma later in the day, the standout game on Saturday's slate takes place in the ACC. Both Virginia and North Carolina are probably better than their current rankings, #8 and #12 respectively, and today we'll find out who is better overall (albeit not necessarily permanently). This is a rivalry dominated by the home team recently w/ four straight wins and seven of the last nine. But North Carolina is likely the more motivated side here after losing at Florida State Wednesday (by a single point!) and thus, they'll be the proverbial "tough out" plus the points. I'm taking the underdog here.

Now, I must concede that Virginia is a very good basketball team. How good? Well, at the defensive end, they are allowing just 52.7 points per game. That's the fewest in the country right now and perhaps more impressive is the fact the Hoos have held every opponent thus far to either its lowest or second lowest point total of the season! They allow 6.2 PPG fewer than the #2 team defensively (Miami). They also don't turn the ball over much, doing so just 9x per game, fewest in the country. But Saturday afternoon will certainly be their toughest test to date as UNC comes in averaging an impressive 84.9 points per game. Off their previous two losses, the Tar Heels have won by double digits the next time out, each time scoring 86 pts. 

It's rare that UNC loses B2B games. It didn't happen at all last season en route to them cutting down the nets in April. This team may not be as good as that one, but remember they don't even need to necessarily win straight up here. Prior to routing Va Tech in Blacksburg earlier in the week (1st win there in four years), Virginia was lucky to win its ACC opener (here in Charlottesville) as they escaped w/ a one-point win over Boston College. Getting back to North Carolina, they are 35-17-2 ATS their L54 games following a SU loss. That's good enough for me as you have to figure they've been favored in almost all of those contests. There's some real nice value here taking them plus the points. 8* North Carolina

10* Northeastern (7:00 ET): Off an outright loss as a home favorite earlier in the week, I expect the Huskies to be highly motivated for this Friday night home date. On Tuesday, they lost to Hofstra, 71-70 as 5.5-pt chalk. That snapped a five-game home winning streak and was an extremely disappointing result given that N'eastern led early on by double digits. In the second half, no more than three points separated the two teams over the final 10 minutes. In a contest determined by the slightest margin possible, the keys were Hofstra shooting 49 to 45.5 percent from the floor, outscoring N'eastern 36-24 in the paint and four more free throws made. Tonight they face an Elon team in the exact opposite situation, that being off a SU win as a (slight) dog at home. I'll lay the points. 

Elon got me their last time out, beating Towson 75-72 as a 1.5-pt dog. Again, that game mirrored Northeastern's last game, only w/ the opposite result for the team in question. The Phoenix trailed virtually the entire first half and was still down six w/ just over seven minutes to go in the game. Like the N'eastern-Hofstra game, Elon and Towson were never separated by more than five pts after that. The Phoenix did not take the lead for good until the final minutes. They've now won three in a row and started 2-0 in CAA play, but both conference games were at home. Speaking of close games, these teams played a pair last season, each winning by 2 pts or less on the other's home floor. They were very different games. Elon won at N'eastern 51-49 and then the rematch went the Huskies way, 105-104, after two overtimes. 

Speaking of overtimes, Elon has been a very lucky team so far this season, winning three different OT games including one double OT game and one triple OT game! Four of their five losses have been by nine points or greater, three of those coming by 16 pts or more. All five losses were also on the road. As for Northeastern, I simply can't see them dropping B2B home games. The Huskies are allowing just 63 PPG at home this year while limited teams to 26% shooting from behind the arc. I'm banking on their defense showing up in a major way here and avenging what happened earlier in the week. Elon is just 1-5 ATS away from home this year. 10* Northeastern

10* Wichita State (7:00 ET): This season has seen Wichita State make the "move up" from the Missouri Valley, a conference which they dominated seemingly for forever, to the American. The expectation is that it will the Shockers competing w/ Cincinnati for supremacy here. Sure enough, those are the only two AAC teams ranked, currently. Wichita State won its first league game on Saturday, 72-62 over UConn, but failed to cover (barely) as 10.5-pt favorites. It was the fourth consecutive game where they did not cover. For tonight, the number is more manageable (1st time not favored by DD since SU loss to Oklahoma), but the task more difficult as they host 12-2 Houston. The Cougars are off to a 2-0 SU start in AAC play. 

Houston's two losses this year are by a combined seven points, but to Drexel and LSU, games in which they were favored. They've only been an underdog once and that game happens to be their best performance of the season, a stunning 91-65 beatdown of Arkansas. But that was at home. The Cougars were a busy team prior to the New Year, playing twice in three days and beating USF and Temple. However, those two wins did not come w/o some attrition as starting forward Breaon Brady (scored 21 pts vs. Temple) sustained an ankle injury. He may not play tonight. Going into Charles Koch Arena, one definitely wants to be at full strength. That's because Wichita State is 65-1 straight up here the last five seasons!

Wichita State will certainly be Houston's toughest opponent to date. While the Shockers didn't play particularly well last month against Oklahoma, the Sooners are also a tougher opponent against Houston. WSU's only other loss this year was to Notre Dame (who was ranked #13 at the time) in Maui and they blew a double-digit halftime lead in that one. The key to the Shockers' success has been rebound margin as they rank #4 in the country in that department at +11.6 per game. This being their 1st AAC home game, I expect a very motivated effort from WSU.  Lay the points. 10* Wichita State

8* Under UTSA/La Tech (7:30 ET): Here's a somewhat "off the radar" matchup as we travel to Conference USA where both UTSA and Louisiana Tech are looking to bounce back from losses. The latter was expected to challenge Middle Tennessee for conference supremacy this season, but has opened C-USA w/ B2B losses, albeit both taking place on the road. But it can't all be blamed on the schedule here as the Bulldogs have had lineup issues and turn the ball over too much. Jalen Harris, the team's second leading scorer, asked for and was granted a release from the program after only 11 games. Leading scorer Dequan Bracey has battled back issues, which have limited him over the L2 games, and he's also the primary culprit for all the turnovers. 

UTSA won its C-USA opener (over Rice), but then lost to North Texas by a single point on Saturday. Unlike La Tech, the Roadrunners got to play both of their first two league games at home. Not much is expected from UTSA this season as they were picked to finish in the middle of C-USA and they're simply not very good away from home. Their lone "true" road win this year came by a single point at Texas State in the second game of the season. The loss to North Texas was the Roadrunners' fourth game this season decided by four points or less and they've lost three of those. They blew a seven-point halftime lead to North Texas and missed two layups in the closing seconds. This is not a team noted for its defense as they've allowed 100 pts TWICE in regulaton this season. 

Like UTSA, La Tech can score. They average 79.7 PPG and 90.0 PPG at home. UTSA averages 85.5 PPG (still not in the top 20), but also allows 77 PPG. These teams have a history of going Over against one another w/ seven of the previous eight meetings going that way, including all four the last two seasons. But notable here is the fact the O/U line some 20 pts higher than it was for either meeting last year. Both 2017 matchups BARELY went Over as in by 2 pts and 1 pt. Five of La Tech's last six games have stayed Under and while, again, both were on the road, they are averaging just 66.5 in conference games. UTSA is also coming off its lowest scoring effort to date. 8* Under UTSA/La Tech

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Bedlam is renewed on the basketball court tonight w/ Oklahoma hosting rival Oklahoma State in the second Big 12 game for each side. The faithful in Norman may still be "licking their wounds" after the football team's disappointing loss in the Rose Bowl Monday, but they've got a pretty good basketball team too. The Sooners come in at 11-1 SU and ranked #7 in the country. In the (very deep) Big XII, they are the second highest rated team right now according to the pollsters (ahead of Kansas!). But it wasn't easy New Year's Eve, handing TCU its first loss of the season, and OK State will come in highly motivated off a loss at home to WVU. Take the points w/ the Pokes in this one.

The Big 12 looks to be loaded this year w/ five teams currently ranked in the top 18 and three in the top 10. Personally, I have OU rated as the fourth best team in the league (ahead of TCU among those ranked). I don't think they're the 7th best team in the country, by any means. Oklahoma State is in the next tier (along w/ Texas, Baylor and Kansas State) in what is potentially shaping up to be a seven-bid league in the NCAA Tournament. Certainly, they don't want to (can't afford to?) start 0-2 in conf play. They led WVU by seven at halftime in Stillwater on Friday, but shockingly the nation's #2 free throw shooting team (80.5%!) faltered down the stretch (11 for 19 in 2H). While the Cowboys were picked to finish last in the preseason poll, clearly, they're better than that as their only three losses so far have come to Top 10 teams (WVU, A&M, Wichita State). 

Winners of nine in a row, the Sooners are clearly going to be motivated here by the double revenge they have from last year (lost to OK State both times). But three of the past four meetings between these two (including both LY) have been decided by four points or less. In other words, expect a close game tonight. OU just outlasted TCU on New Year's Eve, coming from behind to win 90-89. At one point, the Sooners trailed by as many as 13 in the second half. Having had two more days to prepare here is a big edge for the underdog. Oklahoma certainly can score, but they give up plenty of points too (79.9 PPG). Maybe that's why they're just 3-6 ATS laying points this season. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Towson (7:00 ET): The Colonial is nowhere close to what it was in its "heyday" (w/ VCU and George Mason's Final Four runs bring the conference to nat'l prominence) and the team that has dominated the last couple seasons (UNC Wilmington) is expected to take a step back in 2018. Thus, we have ourselves yet another a wide-open race. Both teams here figure to be "players" in the CAA race, along w/ favorite (College of) Charleston. Now, that being said Towson does not come into this game playing well. They've lost three in a row, all "true" road games, including their CAA opener - at the aforementioned Charleston. Here, they play a fourth straight "true" roadie, at Elon, who won (here at home) over Drexel Saturday. 

Prior to the current three-game skid, Towson had started the year 10-1 SU. I still rank them as the 2nd best team in the CAA (after Charleston) despite the losses. Something to note is that the Tigers were actually favored at Pitt last week. Even though they lost, that's a lot of respect from the marketplace. The Tigers are quite battled-tested by this point as they've played only four home games (won them all). Despite that, and the three-game skid, they're still outscoring foes by an impressive 9.4 points per game. Usually, their defense is very stout (allowing 39.0 FG% for the year), but on Saturday, they let Charleston shoot above 51%. I don't see that happening again, especially not in B2B games.

Elon is 5-0 SU at home after a 90-75 win over Drexel as 6.5-pt favorites. Prior to that, they went to Terre Haute and upset Indiana State as six-point dogs. So the Phoenix are playing well right now? But can they summon up a third straight quality performance? I'm not convinced. They're only +1.8 PPG despite the 9-5 SU record and Saturday's offensive showing, where they scored 90 pts on 49.1% shooting, is atypical compared to what we usually see from them. We're only two weeks removed from the Phoenix losing by 16 at Canisius and three weeks from them losing by 31 at UNC Greensboro. They scored just 95 pts - total - in those two games and shot terribly. They're also just 1-4 ATS as underdogs this season. 8* Towson

10* West Virginia (5:00 ET): This is a potentially great matchup for New Year's Day w/ two of the heavyweights from the Big 12 facing off. Both won their respective conference openers, WVU over Oklahoma State and Kansas State over Iowa State. Even more impressive is that both wins came on the road. Can Bob Huggins' Mountaineers now make it B2B road wins? Well, considering they've won their last 12 games, I'd answer in the affirmative. WVU has ascended to 7th in the latest national rankings and while they may not be quite that good, I definitely have them ahead of Kansas State, whose 11-2 SU record hasn't exactly come at the expense of many good times. It's tough winning at the "Octagon of Doom," but WVY can do it. 

In fact, they almost did it last year, losing by only four (were -3.5). Note that after that loss, they'd go on to drub K-State in Morgantown (by 19) and then beat them again in the Big 10 Tourney. Overall, they've beaten the Wildcats in seven of the previous eight head to head meetings. As per usual, "Press Virginia" is creating a lot of turnovers; 21 per game, in fact, for the season. This is a very balanced (and deep) team that ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). Only three other teams in the country - Michigan St, Purdue and Kansas can also lay claim to that. Six different Mountaineers scored in double figures Saturday in Stillwater as they outscored OK State 46-33 in the 2nd half. 

Six Big XII teams currently find themselves ranked in the Top 25, but Kansas State is NOT one of them, which is somewhat telling. I don't always agree w/ the pollsters and this is one of those cases where I'm "with them" as I don't have Bruce Weber's team ranked in my top 40 despite their 11-2 SU record! Remember that they lost outright to Tulsa last month. They do hold road wins over Vandy and Iowa State, but that's about it. The win Saturday over Iowa State was KSU's first in Ames since 2011. I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat performance from junior Dean Wade, who went for a career-high 34 pts in that game. As a team, the Wildcats shot better than 55% from the floor Saturday, including 13 of 26 from three-point range (Iowa St was just 4 of 15 from 3-pt range). That also won't be duplicated. 10* West Virginia

8* Valparaiso (4:00 ET): Missouri Valley play got underway this week and in the case of Valpo, it did not go well. The Crusaders lost at Indiana State, 73-64, as one-point road favorites. But let's look at that situation, shall we? The game came at the end of a ridiculous SIX-game road swing (all "true" road games, at that), one that had taken them out to the West Coast for a couple of games prior to the Holiday break. Now, they're back at home - for the 1st time in December! I think that counteracts the fact that their opponents here, Missouri State, have been off for nine days since winning their MVC opener, 64-59 over Loyola (at home). The Bears come into this game having won 9 of 10, but I'm not ready to buy into them.

I've said this before, but the Missouri Valley is wide open this year due to the departure of Wichita State. Valpo replaced the Shockers, keeping this a 10-team league, but it is Missouri State that was labeled by many as the new favorite. Tip your cap to the Bears for holding Loyola, who was thought to have the best offense in the league coming into the season, to just 59 points. The game before that, the Bears held Wright State to only 28.1% shooting. For the season, the Bears are allowing just 38.2% shooting. Therefore, it shouldn't come as much of a shock to find that the one time this year they allowed better than 50% shooting, happens to be their last loss. That was also their last "true" road game, at Oral Roberts, who went for 73 pts on 53.1% shooting. 

Again, Valpo has got to be thrilled to be back on campus as they are a perfect 5-0 straight up here this season and are outscoring their visitors by an incredible margin of 28.0 points per game! The Crusaders can play a little defense as well as they're holding foes to just 39.0% shooting for the year. At home, that percentage dips down to 33.0% (just 24.4% from 3-pt range!) and opponents score only 54.8 PPG here. They went just 1-5 SU on that brutal road trip, but had started out 8-0 SU before that. Note too that the Crusaders are off B2B outright losses as a favorite. In addition to being a very short favorite over Indiana State on Thursday, they were laying 6.5 to UC Riverside in a 73-60 loss on 12.20. The market still respects them though, and so do I. 8* Valparaiso

10* Davidson (4:30 ET): Steph Curry's alma mater is off a 7th place finish in the Diamond Head Classic as they won their final game out on the island (Hawaii), thereby avoiding finishing last in the eight-team field. Now it's time to start Atlantic 10 play and the Wildcats do so here w/ a very favorable matchup against a Richmond squad that is struggling mightily. The host Spiders have dropped eight of nine, the lone win during that stretch coming by three over James Madison. Adding to the motivation, this is a double revenge spot for Davidson as they dropped both meetings LY, including one as 11-point home favorites on New Year's Eve. Though Richmond hasn't played in a week, they are off an OT loss (to Boston College) and a game that was actually delayed a day (weather) before that. I'm laying the points.

Davidson's 91-78 win over Akron on Christmas was their best offensive effort of the month, led by Kellan Grady's career-best 30 points. In retrospect, things could have gone much better for the Wildcats out in Hawaii, but they dropped two close games, one to the host. They shot only 38.1% from the field against Hawaii and that was preceded by a last-second loss to New Mexico State (by one). That loss to NMSU was particularly brutal when you consider a second half rally had Davidson in front by seven w/ 7:35 to go (trailed by eight at halftime).

Richmond is only 1-5 SU on its home court this season, largely due to the fact they are allowing visitors to shoot at a 53.3% clip here. So I'm expecting a second straight strong offensive showing from Davidson (average 79.3 PPG already) here. The Spiders are just 2-10 SU overall and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. As I mentioned earlier, they did take their last opponent (Boston College) to overtime and that came after the game vs. Bucknell was delayed a day due to weather (5" snow). Even after the long break and this still being relatively early in the season, you have to wonder what the Spiders have left to give. Right now, they project as the weakest team in the Atlantic 10, so this is a game Davidson simply MUST win if it wants to remain remotely relevant in the conference race. 10* Davidson

8* Washington (10:30 ET): Pac 12 play commences on Friday and this is an interesting conference to handicap. Arizona is usually the favorite here, but it is their Territorial Cup rival (Arizona State) that has taken the nation by storm as the Sun Devils are currently one of only three teams w/o a loss this year. However, it's safe to say that ASU is nowhere close to its #3 ranking in terms of true talent (I have them barely cracking the Top 25). Beyond the two Arizona teams, it's anyone's guess as right now I don't see the Pac 12 sending a ton of teams to the NCAA Tournament. USC is the presumed third-best team, but there's a gap between them and ASU and I certainly wouldn't want to be caught laying double digits w/ the Trojans in this spot. Take the points.

USC is off a successful trip to Hawaii as they won the Diamond Head Classic over the Holiday. The Championship Game of that tournament was played Christmas Day w/ the Trojans prevailing 77-72 over New Mexico State. Not that the Aggies are a bad team (they aren't), but I think it speaks volumes that USC was only a four-point favorite in that spot. They won and covered all three tourney games, but two of the wins (also Akron) were by five points or less. This team struggled after Thanksgiving, losing three straight, although that was against a pretty tough competition. But, remember, they also lost here at home to Princeton (overtime). Southern Cal was tied at the half against New Mexico State and needed a Ryan Boatwright three-pointer w/ 4.1 seconds left in the game, just to pull out the SU win. I view this as an EXCELLENT spot to fade the Trojans.

Washington actually comes in w/ the better non-conf record of the two as they are 10-3 as opposed to USC's 9-4. After suffering two early season losses (Providence, Va Tech), the Huskies have won eight of nine, including three straight. Like USC, there have been some close calls lately w/ two (Loyola Marymout, Montana) of those three straight wins coming by three points or less. This is actually Washington's first "true" road game of the season, but I'm expecting a closely contested affair as they're better rested having not played a game in the last week. They average a healthy 80.5 PPG. 8* Washington

10* Detroit (8:00 ET): Horizon League play commences on Thursday and w/ Valparaiso having bolted for the "greener pastures" of the Missouri Valley, this particular conference race seems to be wide open. Well, to be fair, Oakland is probably the favorite, followed by the team that won the Conf Tourney LY, Northern Kentucky. The two teams playing here, Detroit and Green Bay, are probably "middle of the pack" teams, but that doesn't make this game any less important. Especially w/ both entering conference play having losing records. Detroit, in particular, appears to be in real trouble as they've lost SEVEN in a row. But that will have them as the more "desperate" side here and thus I'll take the points.

The Titans of Detroit will play their first two Horizon League games on the road w/ a date in Milwaukee following this one, on Saturday. There are definitely some defensive issues that need fixing here - in a hurry - if they are going to have any success in the conference portion of the schedule. Giving up 89.8 PPG is not a reciepe for success and counteracts the fact they average 84.4 PPG themselves. Five of those seven straight losses have been by single digits (other two to UCLA and Michigan) and some of those could have been flipped to W's w/ some better defensive effort. Thankfully, here, they may have found the perfect opponent. Green Bay comes in shooting only 41.1% from the field for the season and was held to 60 pts in its last game.

Now that last game for the Phoenix was against Wisconsin. But they also dropped their previous home game, to Bowling Green. Overall, it's four losses in the past six games and both wins were against non-board teams. In fact, Green Bay has just one win over a lined foe and it was a two-point win, as a home dog, over Eastern Illinois. So I wouldn't be in a rush to lay points w/ this team right now. They were favored in both meetings vs. Detroit LY, but failed to cover each time, once losing outright (as 5-pt road favorites). Consider that they shot better than SIXTY PERCENT in the two games combined, something they almost assuredly will NOT be doing here, and still failed to cash. These teams have a history of playing close games. All signs point to taking the points. 10* Detroit

8* Arkansas (8:00 ET): The Razorbacks may not be ranked, but they do find themselves near the top of the "others receiving votes" category as they've only lost twice, albeit both times in blowout fashion. The first was a NCAA Tournament rematch w/ North Carolina while the other occurred in their only "true" road game to date (at Houston). Tonight should be another blowout, only this one being in their favor as they come off extended rest (last played eight days ago). The last game was another blowout that went their way, that one being a 104-69 demolition of Oral Roberts. They had no problem covering a 24-pt spread there, making it four consecutive SU and ATS wins for the Hogs. Make it five in a row here as we lay the points.

They may not be ranked, but I could make a case for the Razorbacks being one of the 15 best teams in America (they are #7 in RPI!). They are top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, ranking 18th in the former. Despite the two blowout losses, they have still managed to outscore opponents by an average of 16 PPG and here in Fayatteville, that number jumps all the way up to 25.3 PPG. During the current 4-game SU/ATS win streak, they've been a favorite of 16.5 or more points three times (and obviously covered every time). Only one of their six wins has been decided by fewer than 16 pts and that was against Minnesota (who came in ranked #14), a game they covered by double digits. Coming off the layoff, I expect little to no rust as the Hogs' ATS record when playing w/ 7+ days rest is 8-2. Last time out, they led Oral Roberts by 29 at halftime. They shot nearly 60% for the game and forced 27 turnovers. 

I should probably mention the opponent, no? Just like Oral Roberts, CS-Bakersfield is going to be ill-equipped to deal w/ the highest scoring team in the SEC and the pressure it brings. Four times this season, the Razorbacks have forced 19+ turnovers. While the WAC contingent has been better at protecting the basketball lately, that's only b/c they've been facing a weaker slate of opponents. Earlier in the year, they turned it over 25x against Northern Arizona. Despite the weak slate, the Roadrunners have still lost 5 of 8. This is just their fifth lined opponent of the season, and EASILY the toughest, save for Arizona (whom they lost to by 32). 8* Arkansas

10* North Carolina (1:30 ET): This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for Ohio State on Saturday afternoon in New Orleans, as part of the CBS Sports Classic. North Carolina is off a humiliating 79-75 loss to Wofford at home on Wednesday and I suspect will be "out for blood" as a result. Despite that embarrassment, I think it's still fair to consider the Tar Heels to be one of the top 10 teams in the country. They come into today WAY undervalued against an Ohio State team that has a similar record (10-3 SU) but is still not even in my top 40. The Buckeyes have played only one "true" road game so far, and while it was a very impressive win (83-58 over Wisconsin!), it was a conference game. Lay the points here in a "get well spot" for Roy Williams' team.

The last time UNC lost B2B games was February of 2016. Prior to the shocker vs. Wofford, their only other loss was to #2 Michigan State and they immediately responded w/ a double digit win over another Big 10 squad, that being Michigan. Making the Wofford loss all the more perplexing is the fact UNC attempted a season-high 38 free throws in that game, even making 28. They'd won 23 straight in Chapel Hill previously, but couldn't make a shot Wednesday as they were limited to 36.4% shooting for the game. Wofford, who was picked to finish SIXTH in the SoCon, was a 25.5-pt dog and led the entire second half. Simply put, you won't see a more shocking upset the rest of this College Basketball season. Remember though; it was Sunday where I cashed these Tar Heels in an impressive road win over Tennessee. 

Ohio State has played only one ranked team all season and that game did not go well as they were trounced by Gonzaga, 86-59. Gonzaga is of course the team that lost to UNC in last April's National Champ Game. The Buckeyes are only 8-15 straight up, all-time, against top five foes. They have largely feasted on a weak non-conf schedule w/ most of the games taking place in Columbus. I'd say hosting William & Mary, Appalachian State and The Citadel (OSU's last three opponents) is hardly "good primer" for this nationally televised matchup. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS their last nine neutral court games while UNC is 6-1 ATS laying between 6.5 and 9 pts at a neutral setting. 10* North Carolina

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY.... PLEASE DISREGARD! 

8* Harvard (12:00 ET): Credit the Ivy League contingent for taking on a challenging non-conf schedule as Thursday's 74-63 triumph over Boston U marked just the THIRD home game of the season to date! It's now B2B wins for the Crimson, who treated me well w/ an "ugly" 47-45 win over Fordham, all the way back on December 6th. So even though this is their second game in three days, this won't be a tired team as it's also only their second game in 17 days! Now there is some possible attrition here as two players - Bryce Aiken and Robert Baker - are both listed as questionable for this afternoon. Aiken, the team's leading scorer, injured his knee vs. Fordham and would be a big loss if he did not play. (Baker is a reserve whose presence won't matter much). Aiken or not, I like Harvard plus the points in this spot. 

GW snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday, but it was close as they only beat New Hampshire (non-board team) by four points. The Colonials even had to rally back from a small halftime deficit just to win the 1st ever meeting between the two schools. The team does hold an impressive upset of Temple (as 11.5-pt dogs) last month, but do not have a win by greater than 11 pts all season. Ironically, that 11-pt victory came against another Ivy League school (Princeton), but since that time GW has not shot the ball well, particularly in the losses to Penn State and Miami (both sub 37% performances). Against New Hampshire, they were actually outshot, allowing the Wildcats to connect on 52% of their field goal attempts. 

Meanwhile, following B2B poor shooting nights against Kentucky and Fordham, Harvard was able to regain its shooting touch by hitting 55.3% of its FG attempts vs. Boston U. Keep in mind that came w/o Aiken, which is why I'm willing to somewhat "roll the dice" here w/ the Crimson. The team's five starters made only 10 baskets against Boston U, a number which will certainly go up here, with or w/o Aiken. That will counteract any regression from the reserves, who were sensational (16 of 28 from the field!) the last game. Over the L3 seasons, Harvard has gone 11-1 ATS in the month of December (light schedule due to exams) while George Washington is 16-23 ATS the L39x it has been a favorite. 8* Harvard

10* Over Xavier/Northern Iowa (9:00 ET): Xavier is a very good basketball team, one that's completely worthy of its top 10 ranking. This, however, will be a tricky spot as they head to Cedar Falls to face an always dangerous (especially in the underdog role) Northern Iowa squad. The Panthers have lost only three times this season and those defeats came at the hands of: North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa State. The last of those occurred on Saturday as perhaps they were pointing towards this game, a rare visit from a Top 10 squad. Of course, you could also make the case Xavier was caught "looking ahead" on Tuesday when they only beat Marshall by four as lofty 19-pt favorites. I see no edge when it comes to playing the side in this matchup, but w/ the way Xavier plays, an Over should be in the cards.

The ninth ranked Musketeers come in averaging 87.7 points per game, which is 14th most in the country. Perhaps we all should have seen that close call vs. Marshall coming as the Thundering Herd happen to be one of the 13 teams averaging more points per game (89.1). Xavier comes in shooting the ball very well (52.2 FG%), which is fourth best nationally. However, defense has been a bit of an issue as in three games away from home, they've given up an average of 78.7 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by the Arizona State loss (102-86), but w/ this being only the team's second "true" road game of the year, I'd say there's still legit questions about the defense.

On the other hand, there aren't many questions about Northern Iowa's defense as they're allowing only 59.0 PPG overall and just 50.9 here in Cedar Falls! But, something to keep in mind is that the four teams the Panthers held below 50 pts were all non-board teams. They did give up 86 to North Carolina, who shot 50 percent against them. Iowa State went for 76 on Saturday. Xavier is much more efficient than both of those teams (especially Iowa St), so this may very well be a bad matchup for UNI here. I know many in Cedar Falls were hoping a win here could propel them into the Top 25, but I actually have them rated outside of the Top 80 teams in the country! 10* Over Xavier/Northern Iowa

8* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): Compared to last season, when they were still unbeaten and on their way to playing for the National Championship, Gonzaga seems a little bit "under the radar" (ranked #12). However, it should be pointed out that the 'Zags were only ranked 7th at this time last year and this year's squad has taken on a slightly more challenging schedule w/ both losses coming to Top 10 teams (at the time), one of them coming in double overtime. While that 2OT loss to Florida may look worse now, their only other defeat came at the hands of #1 Villanova at a neutral setting. The Bulldogs have had to settle for a pair of OT wins themselves, one of them against North Dakota (!) last week, but are off a 30-pt win on Monday. This may only be their 2nd "true" road game of the year tonight, but I like the Zags laying a small number.

San Diego State is the opposition here and they probably can't wait to take the court, given that they've been off for 12 days and last time we saw them, they dropped a stunner (as 16.5-pt chalk) to Cal on this very floor. The Aztecs have just three losses, all of them to Pac 12 schools, and haven't been an underdog since the second game of the year (at Arizona State). However, they don't exactly have any quality wins to speak of, unless you want to count Georgia (I don't!), who I have rated as the 75th best team in the country. Defense remains the calling card here, even w/ Steve Fisher having been succeeded by long-time assistant Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs are holding opponents to 38.6% shooting and 64.2 points per game. The problem here though is Gonzaga averages 91.8 PPG on 51.4% shooting. Few teams shoot the ball better. At the same time, SDSU is only shooting 30.5% themselves from three-point range.

With the five top scorers from LY's team gone, Gonzaga was expected to take a step back this year. The fact they've only lost twice says something positive about this group though and Mark Few's coaching. They blitzed IUPUI on Monday, 101-71, with Killian Tillie scoring a career-high 27 points. In their only other "true" road game thus far, the Zags crushed Washington by 27 points. I'm not sure what the deal was against North Dakota over the weekend (other than they didn't shoot well), but this spread is a bargain. 8* Gonzaga

8* Georgetown (7:00 ET): Because so much has been made of just how weak the Hoyas' schedule has been to this point, there's going to be a desire amongst bettors to fade this team, almost blindly, on a game by game basis. Those who chose to do so on Saturday got a huge break w/ OT as Syracuse was able to prevail 86-79 as 5.5-pt chalk, handing G'town its first loss of the season. It's important to note that at no point in regulation were the Orange covering the spread, and in fact they were down by as many as 13 in the second half! It remains to be seen how HC Patrick Ewing deals w/ his first career loss, but my guess is that North Texas isn't likely to put up much of a fight here. Lay the points. 

Yes, Georgetown's schedule has been VERY weak. All but one of their games have been at home as they didn't even bother to play in any holiday tournaments. Their eight wins have come against teams that are currently 24-64 straight up. That being said, they have "taken care of business" against most of these lesser foes. Other than the one "true" road game they played (82-76 win at Richmond), the Hoyas have won every game by at least nine points. Now that still wasn't good enough for the oddsmakers most of the time as there were some huge spreads. But one thing I'm counting on tonight is that G'town won't be shooting 2 for 17 from three-point range. Again, mock the schedule all you want, but the Hoyas had Syracuse beat. 

North Texas is in the middle of a four-game trip that will take them all the way around the country. Last time out (Saturday), they upset San Diego, 86-3 as 10-pt dogs. It was the Mean Green's third consecutive victory, two of those come as dogs. Overall, they've covered their last five games, which is the exact opposite of Georgetown. But, even though they've played plenty of road games, UNT's schedule (save for Oklahoma) hasn't been that impressive either. Note that the road win they pulled off on Saturday was pretty rare. Prior to that, they'd lost seven straight "true" road games. So, what are the chances of them now winning two, back to back? Not good, I'd say and G'town is still outscoring its opponents by 15 PPG this season. There will be plenty of spots to fade the Hoyas later in the season, but this is NOT one of them! 8* Georgetown

10* Auburn (8:00 ET): The need to adapt on the fly is a prerequisite for handicapping any sport and in the case of College Basketball something very interesting has happened over the last several seasons. It seems, almost, as if "mid-majors" are getting TOO MUCH respect in games vs. teams hailing from power conferences. This mainly applies to the 1st weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but it also applies in a situation like this when the mid-major gets to play host and you have a short number. Tempting as it may be to take the home dog, in this instance Auburn happens to be significantly better than Murray State and I simply cannot justify this line being this low. Lay the points! 

Auburn comes into tonight w/ a 9-1 SU record and is averaging an impressive 86.0 PPG. They may not have a ton of impressive wins, but their only loss came on a neutral floor to Temple. That was over a month ago and since then the Tigers have won seven in a row, five by double digits. Now last week brought a pair of close encounters as they beat UAB by five and Middle Tennessee by six. I have Middle Tennesse rated higher than Murray State and the same holds true for Temple. So unlike Murray State, this will NOT be Auburn's most difficult opponent to date tonight. Note that the Tigers held a 17-pt lead at half over MTSU, who wound up shooting 50% from three-point range. Auburn typically shoots far better than 27.6% from behind the arc (what they shot vs. MTSU), so expect improvement in that area here. 

Murray State is a very good offensive team as they are currently making over 50% of their FG attempts for the year. They've outscored opponents by 17.6 points per game, but considering Auburn is +14.3 PPG against a slightly more challenging schedule, the Racers' point differential isn't all that impressive. Murray State's only loss came at St. Louis, exactly one week ago, before bouncing back w/ a 100-pt effort against Marist over the weekend. That performance is what likely has the Racers overvalued here as there's simply no way they are going to shoot 62.5% from the field again, especially against a taller and longer opponent. Also, Auburn has won its last four "true" non-conf roadies. 10* Auburn

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Sean Millers' Wildcats certainly expected better than being on the fringes of the Top 25 coming into the season, but the real shocker for this perennial Pac 12 power is that - right now - they're not even being recognized as the best team in their own state. Arizona State (still undefeated) has caught everyone by surprise, though I assure you that the Sun Devils are certainly NOT one of the five best teams in America. In fact, were the two Territorial Cup rivals to play tomorrow, I can say w/ full confidence that Arizona would be the betting favorite. Aside from a poor showing in the Bahamas (where all three losses took place), Miller's team has been just fine and I'm looking for them to role tonight in Tucson. 

Arizona has won five in a row since that ill-fated trip to the Battle 4 Atlantis and many of those wins have been close (three by six pts or less). But that was against some quality competition, better than what they'll face here. Also, on Saturday, they picked up a nice win at New Mexico (Albuquerque is a tough place to pay), by 16 points, as they shot a blistering 64% from the field. Leading scorer Allonzo Trier was right near his average w/ 22 pts and making his first start of the season, Rawle Alkins scored a career-high 26 pts. Alkins being back from injury is huge as it coincides w/ a time where the team's overall depth is hurting due to injuries to a pair of reserves. Against a more formidable opponent, I might be concerned about that. But not here.

North Dakota State has won B2B games, but this is massive jump up in class from last week when they beat Valley City State (non-board team) 101-58. The Bison did play another Pac 12 team (USC) tough earlier in the year, losing by only 10. But they simply lack the firepower to compete here as they're averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road, which is a far cry from the 94.8 PPG Arizona averages at home. NDSU had its own three-game losing streak shortly after Thanksgiving and it included a 34-pt loss at Mississippi State. The Wildcats will - easily - be the toughest team the Bison face all year and I just don't think they're up for the challenge. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 9-22 ATS in road games and 6-16 ATS as a dog. 10* Arizona

8* North Carolina (3:00 ET): We have a Top 25 matchup Sunday afternoon in Knoxville w/ Tennessee hosting UNC. However, while the Tar Heels are probably deserving of their current #7 ranking (that's where I have them), I'm not sure I can say the same for the Vols, who to me, are a fringe Top 25 team at best. Now, it's not as if I think Roy Williams' team should be a prohibitive favorite in this spot; it's just that I believe in them winning here. Therefore, with that line of thinking, how could I resist taking them? 

North Carolina certainly comes into this game well-rested. They've been off since December 6th when they drubbed Western Carolina, 104-61 as 32.5-pt favorites. It was their fourth straight win, all of them coming by double digits. The Tar Heels' only loss this year was to Michigan State (at a neutral setting) where they shot an abysmal 24.6% from the floor. Despite that game, they still come in averaging an impressive 88.1 PPG, which is 15th most in the country. UNC is one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the Top 20 in offensive/defensive efficiency at KenPom. They're one of only four to rank in the Top 15 in both categories (11/14), joining the likes of Villanova, Mich State and Purdue. They have played one "true" road game previously this season and it was a rout (24 pts) of Stanford.

Tennessee also has just one loss and it also came to a team currently ranked in the Top 2, in their case being #1 Villanova. That took place back on November 23rd (three days prior to UNC's only loss) and like the Tar Heels, the Vols have bounced back w/ four consecutive wins. However, three of the four wins were by 10 pts or less, including the last one (against Lipscomb). That game was played last Saturday, so Tennessee isn't quite as well-rested as their counterparts are here. Much will be made of the fact the Vols have won five straight times here in Knoxville when hosting the defending National Champion (no matter who it is). Also, HC Williams is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games if the opponent is ranked. But this is the first time UT is hosting a Top 25 opponent when ranked themselves in seven years. I think the spotlight will be "too bright" for them. 8* North Carolina

10* Oregon (6:00 ET):  Even w/ this being "true" road game #1 for the Ducks, I'm a little perplexed as to the favorite/underdog dynamic here as we have one of the Pac 12's four premier teams going up against a middle of the road group from the Mountain West. I get that Fresno State comes in having won seven in a row, but I don't exactly see a lot of heavyweights on that schedule. Sure, they've been blowing out their competition, but isn't that what you'd expect w/ the likes of Montana State, CS-Bakersfield and Ark Pine-Bluff? Due to covering only one of its previous seven games, Oregon is severely undervalued in this spot.

This will be the third year in a row that these teams are going head to head. Oregon has won each of the last two years, but failed to cover each time. Still though, they were favored by 11.5 in '15 and 15.5 in '16. Granted, both of those games took place in Eugene. But has enough really changed to justify such a swing in the line? I think not. The Ducks did have a bit of trouble around Thanksgiving, dropping three of four games in eight days' time. But they've since bounced back w/ three straight wins, all at home. Wednesday marked the FIFTH time this year that they scored at least 95 pts in a game w/ an 11-pt win over Portland State. They shot 50% overall from the field, including 11 of 27 from three-point range. Another thing to like about this team is they are the best free throw shooting team in the Pac 12. Also, this will be just the second time (this year) the Ducks are dogs. They're 7-3 ATS L10 times taking points.

Lest we forget that Oregon made the Final Four last season. Sure, they are down three starters from that squad, but they remain a top tier team in the top heavy Pac 12. Meanwhile, I'm not even sure that Fresno State will be a legit contender in the Mt West. The Bulldogs aren't a terribly deep team to begin with and are going to be w/o starting guard Jaron Hopkins (back injury). Hopkins is the team's second leading scorer. Furthermore, Johnny McWilliams (a reserve) is questionable w/ an ankle injury. Any kind of foul trouble would be devastating for Fresno State here as the rotation could be down to 6-7 players. Defensively, Oregon is holding its foes to just 37.8% shooting for the year. 10* Oregon 

8* UCLA (3:30 ET): Having thankfully rid themselves of the Ball clan, UCLA can now fully concentrate on winning games. Even amidst all the distractions, they've been doing a pretty good job of that so far, compiling a 7-2 SU record, though one of the two losses occurred their last time out, at Michigan last Saturday. Certainly, the Bruins have had ample time to get over that loss and that's huge because today they welcome in perhaps their toughest opponent to date, in #25 Cincinnati. They're catching them at an opportune time though as the Bearcats just put an end to Mississippi State's unbeaten run earlier this week and that came after their own B2B losses, to Xavier and Florida. Take the points here as I smell an "upset."

Thanks to a game vs. Montana (scheduled for 12.6) being cancelled (due to concerns over nearby wildfires), UCLA has only played one game in the L13 days. It was the aforementioned loss to Michigan, which came in OT and saw the Bruins blow a 15-pt second half lead. Turnovers were an issue as they committed 20 of them up in Ann Arbor. Interestingly enough, the Wolverines had just blown a big lead in their previous game and lost to rival Ohio State. Maybe now it's UCLA's time to "flip the script?" What we do know is the Bruins are 31-7 SU their L38 home games, including 5-0 this year w/ a MOV approaching 20 points per game. Also, they are 7-2 SU the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ five or six days rest.

Cincinnati certainly deserves a better ranking than what they currently have, based on the way they played. But as alluded to above, I hate this spot for them. They had to play a tough game during the week while UCLA was off. Miss State was unbeaten in "name only" and not as tough as UCLA will be though. This is just the 2nd "true" road game for the Bearcats, who lost their first (at Xavier) by double digits. Needless to say, this trip out West is a lot longer than the one across town. The depth issue UCLA has is shared on the Cincinnati bench and though many of the names have changed, remember that the Bruins eliminated the Bearcats from LY's NCAA Tournament. 8* UCLA 

analysis soon

10* Under Santa Clara/USC (10:00 ET): It's funny. When I think of these two programs, I can always remember that one "claim to fame" Santa Clara has (a NCAA Tournament upset of Arizona back in 1992!), but never anything memorable for USC during that last 25 years. That being said, there's no debating that the Broncos would gladly trade spots w/ the Trojans' lot in the overall College Basketball landscape. Well, maybe not right now. Southern Cal has lost three in a row, falling to SMU, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Each of those losses came w/ ample time between games. In fact, this will be just the fourth game for the Trojans in the L18 days. But I'm not about to lay the big number, particularly because they don't shoot the ball well. Take the Under. 

Both teams come into this Thurs night matchup off high-scoring affairs that double as close losses. Santa Clara suffered what could be termed a "slight upset" (were 2-pt favorites) at home to Portland State. It was the second consecutive game where the Broncos let the opponent shoot 56% from the floor. That can't happen a third straight time, right? Not likely, especially w/ USC having yet to shoot even 50% in any game this season. As for the Santa Clara offense, they've run hot and cold all season long. While they have topped 50% in four of their games, they've never done it consecutively and they've also been below 40% in four games as well. If the pattern holds, tonight should be one of the "cold ones."

USC lost by two to Oklahoma its last time out, a result that could have certainly qualified as a "bad beat" for some (were +3). The Trojans trailed by 12 at the half (and by as many as 18 in the 2H) and never led at any point in the game. The loss dropped them from the Top 25 rankings, a place I'm not sure they deserved to be in the first place. SC fell victim to an Oklahoma three-point flurry as the Sooners tied their season-high w/ 15 makes from behind the arc. Good thing they are back home tonight as they allow only 61.2 PPG in LA. Santa Clara averages only 63.7 PPG on the road. 10* Under Santa Clara/USC

10* LSU (9:00 ET): Houston has just one loss on its resume (Drexel!), but I'm not convinced they should be a favorite tonight down in Baton Rouge. This is the time of year where "investigating" a team's record would suit you well. Not all won-loss records are "created equally" and in the case of Houston we have a team that just played its first "true" road game of the season back on Saturday. While the result, a 77-58 win, appears to be a positive sign, note that it came at the expense of lowly St. Louis. UH did drub Arkansas earlier this month (at home), but remember what I said earlier - they also lost to Drexel (as 14-pt chalk, on a neutral floor). Take the points here. 

LSU has played only seven games thus far and is 5-2 SU. Their losses came against Notre Dame and Marquette, two pretty good teams (especially the Irish). Those took place right before Thanksgiving and the Tigers have since bounced back w/ a pair of convincing wins, first over Tenn Martin, then over UNC Wilmington. Both were here in Baton Rouge. While Houston can certainly score "with the best of 'em" (81.7 PPG), LSU's offense has been even more prolific and at home (where they are a perfect 4-0 SU), the Bayou Bengals are averaging a whopping 96.2 points per contest! Defensively, they may have their issues, but they do rank in the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. In fact, LSU is #1 in the COUNTRY in two-point field goal percentage (63.1!) after shooting 45 of 74 from inside the arc the L2 games.

This is the best start for any Houston team since the 2007-08 squad. Because of the good start, they are a threat to win 20+ games this year. But this is one that should end up being a loss. My guess is that the Arkansas game ends up being UH's "best win" by season's end. They won't be as successful defensively here as they were Saturday at St. Louis, whom they held to 58 points on 36.4% shooting. Look for LSU big-man Duop Reath to be the difference maker in this one as he is coming off a 30-point game (in only 27 minutes of action). His size (he's 6'11") will be an issue for the guard-oriented Cougars. 10* LSU

8* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has yet to cover a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and returns home not only looking to snap a three-game SU losing streak, but also w/ revenge on its mind. The Tigers have had plenty of time to stew over last week's 71-60 loss at GW, but perhaps foremost on their minds here will be a six-point loss to Monmouth (tonight's opponent) last season. Interestingly enough, that would be their final loss of the 2016-17 regular season as Princeton closed on a 17-game win streak (perfect vs. Ivy League!) before bowing out to Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament. They come into this year's matchup w/ Monmouth having a slightly worse record (2-6 SU) and this is their second three-game losing streak this season. But I believe the Monmouth game again signals a turnaround for the Tigers and I'll be on them tonight. 

Monmouth, ironically, also has lost its last three games. Unlike Princeton, they had to play over the weekend (Saturday) and it was a marquee game against Kentucky that they lost 93-76. After playing such a high-profile opponent (at a neutral site, no less!), this game is far less likely to hold the Hawks attention than it will for Princeton. Given the game vs. UK was closer to their "backyard," needless to say it was a disappointing showing for Monmouth, who shot only 37.1% from the floor while giving up 93 points. The Hawks trailed by 23 at half and it was never close. Overall, the Hawks have dropped six of seven and while three of those defeats have come by five points or fewer, they're still being outscored by 8.8 points per game away from home (whether "true" road game or neutral site).

Princeton has played only three home games thus far and surprisingly they've lost two of them. Early in the year, they were favored here over BYU (-3.5), so that shows the respect they had from the books at one time. A loss here to Lehigh is what begat the current three-game slide and while scoring has been a bit of an issue for these Tigers, they are at least connecting at a 37.9% clip from behind the three-point arc. Monmouth is giving up almost 80 PPG for the year, so I feel this is the game where the Princeton offense finally breaks loose. In particular, keep an eye on senior PG Amir Bell, who got off to a similar slow start last year. Bell was shutout in 32 minutes vs. GW last week, a performance that certainly won't be repeated. 8* Princeton

10* South Florida (7:00 ET): This in-state battle may lack appeal for the casual bettor, but situationally I love the spot for the short home favorite, who is off a bad loss while its visitor is off a surprise win. Both USF and FIU last played nine days ago. On December 2nd, the former lost badly up at Appalachian State, 84-61 (9-pt dogs). It was the Bulls' worst loss to date and their third in a row overall. As for FIU, they pulled a moderate upset over South Alabama that same day, winning by a shocking margin (29 points!) as two-point dogs. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing that kind of performance from the Panthers anytime soon! Note it came at home and this will be just the second "true" road game of the year for FIU. They lost the first, by 15, at WI-Milwaukee. I'm laying the short number here.

Not much is expected from USF in 2017-18 as they've been predicted to finish near the bottom of the AAC. There's not a ton of offensive firepower here as they average only 63.8 PPG, but you have to figure they'll be at least a little sharper than they were their last time here in Tampa, which saw them shoot an abysmal 29.2% from the floor in 65-47 loss to Eastern Michigan. They've since followed that up w/ two losses in North Carolina, to Elon and Appalachian State. We already discussed the latter a bit and the former came by just a single point. Defensively, the Bulls are better than what they've shown the L2 games. They allow just 60.0 PPG at home and I'm counting on them holding FIU to a far worse shooting percentage than the 51.9% we saw from App State nine days ago. 

FIU did not shoot well in its only "true" road game to date, the aforementioned 66-51 loss to WI-Milwaukee. In that game, the Panthers shot just 35% from the floor. They've only been above 45.5% in two games all year and those happen to be the last two games. Certainly, look for them to "come back down to Earth" after the stunning showing against South Alabama, a game which saw FIU feast off turnovers and benefit from USA completely imploding down the stretch (just one FG make in final six minutes). Note FIU is just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games off an ATS win and 2-6-1 ATS their L9 off a SU win. Meanwhile, USF is 5-1 ATS following an ATS defeat. Three of FIU's four wins this year have come against non-DI foes. No doubt that USF has played the tougher schedule to date (played at Indiana) and the key here will be their defense. Also, don't discount the fact that FIU is horrible from the FT line where they shoot just 57.5%. That matters in a game that's "supposed to be" close like this one. 10* South Florida

8* Chattanooga (1:00 ET): UTC was not expected to be a major player in the SoCon coming into the year and has started just 4-5 straight up. But that record could be a lot better were it not for several close decisions that went the opposite way. Three times already, the Mocs have lost a game that was decided by five points or less. That includes their last time out, a 70-66 setback at Marshall where they at least covered as eight point dogs. I think it is significant that the Mocs are favored here. Yes, it is at home, but it's also illustrative of just how weak the opponent is as well. Charlotte is 0-5 ATS right now and has dropped their last three games - SU - overall. Lay the points.

Chattanooga led by six over Marshall going into the half, but could not hold the lead and lost a close one. Making the result all the more frustrating is the fact Marshall went just 1 for 16 from three-point range. They simply could not stop the Thundering Herd on the interior as Marshall finished the game a somewhat ridiculous 28 of 46 on two-point attempts. Don't count on Charlotte doing the same, however. Even w/ 31 free throws attempted (made 22), they still could not stay within 20 points of Wake Forest on Tuesday and that was at home. The 49ers finished that game at just 15 of 47 overall from the field, 31.9%. They missed 18 of 23 three-pointers as well. 

Typically, Chattanooga has been pretty stout at the defensive end. At least at home they are, as they've held visiting teams to an average of just 59.2 PPG on 39.4% shooting. Getting this game at home "changes everything" for the Mocs as they are 0-4 SU away from home, but 4-1 SU inside of McKenzie Arena. They are particularly sharp from behind the three-point arc here, making 43.3% of all attempts from there at home. As for Charlotte, they have issues defensively as they're giving up 79.1 points per game for the year and their two "true" road games thus far have seen them yield 83 and 87 pts. As mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not covered a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and they're also just 6-35 SU L3 seasons when priced as the underdog. Meanwhile, Chattanooga is a strong 28-5 SU its L33 home games. 8* Chattanooga

8* Valparaiso (2:00 ET): It's pretty rare to find Valpo as the underdog in this in-state battle. Each of the L2 seasons has seen them favored by about 10 pts over Ball State. Now they did lose one of those games outright (here in Muncie) and won LY's rematch by only four. But given an 8-1 SU start this year, I'm fairly shocked the Crusaders are getting points here. Well, maybe not. They did lose Thursday, at Purdue, by 30 points. But that's a result we can now use to our advantage as it has created a ton of value, in essence making Valpo a "buy low" opportunity. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Ball State is off a shocking upset of Notre Dame as 18-pt dogs in South Bend. Previous results have conspired here for an ideal situation.

Admittedly, Valpo had not really played an opponent of any real consequence before venturing into West Lafayette two nights ago. But, you still would have expected more from them. Now they were actually leading the Boilermakers early. But a 21-4 run by Purdue in the 1H all but sealed the game. Valpo shot just 33% from the floor overall and 3 of 16 from behind the 3-pt line. They attempted only 12 free throws and remain winless all-time at Mackey Arena. But it's important to realize that was just one game and this team was undefeated prior to it. They are 9-1 SU the L3 seasons after a game in which they allowed 80+ points. They are also 3-0 SU/ATS this season playing for the second time in three days. 

The mentality of it "just being one game" also certainly applies to Ball State and what they pulled off earlier in the week. No one, most notably the Fighting Irish themselves, saw the upset of Notre Dame coming. BSU opened this season 1-4 SU, including blowout losses at Oklahoma and Oregon. They had turned things around a little w/ three straight wins heading into the ND game, but an outright win in South Bend was still shocking. The Cardinals had not beaten a nationally ranked opponent in 16 years. There was a shocking edge in rebounding there for BSU, something that is not common in their games this season. Also, they won on a last second three-pointer. Note they are still giving up over 80 PPG for the year and are just 8-22 ATS in the favorite role the L3 seasons (1-6 laying three or less at home). 8* Valparaiso

10* Arizona State (8:00 ET): There are only eight teams still w/o a loss this College Basketball season and one of the less heralded unbeatens is 7-0 Arizona State, who hosts St. John's tonight. While earlier in the week we successfully targeted a pair of (now former) unbeatens - Virginia and Nevada - I'm taking a different tact here. Certainly, the Sun Devils are going to lose sooner than later. But St. John's comes into Los Angeles tonight (this is a neutral site game) sans its second leading scorer, Marcus LoVett, who averaged a healthy 14.9 PPG. The Red Storm are a somewhat fraudulent 8-1 SU as they've yet to play a "true" road game and their only tough game (vs. Missouri) not coincidentally resulted in their only defeat. 

Arizona State is not only perfect straight up, they are also virtually perfect against the spread. They 'pushed' back in the season opener, which was a 20-pt win over Idaho State. Since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers w/ all but one SU victory (Kansas State) coming by double digits. And certainly there is no shame in beating Kansas State by only a bucket as that's the Wildcats' only defeat all season and the game was played in Las Vegas. The Sun Devils were even able to overcome KSU shooting 57% from the floor in that game. And then, they went on to beat a very good Xavier team, 102-86, in the Championship Game of the Las Vegas Tournament. Is ASU really the 16th best team (current AP ranking) in America? Probably not, but they've already beaten two teams that are far better than St. John's. 

As alluded to earlier, the Red Storm being short-handed here is the other key factor as is the fact they are making a cross-country trip while it's a relatively short "jaunt" for ASU. St. John's is very good defensively, but they struggle to shoot the ball (42.4 FG%) and that will become a bigger issue if LoVett does not play. This is a major step up from the last game where Chris Mullin's team faced Grand Canyon (on Tuesday). ASU (coached by Bobby Hurley) has been off since Saturday and shoots a far higher percentage from the field (53.1%!) than does SJU. In fact, their last game was the 1st time all season that the Sun Devils failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor or score at least 90 pts. Too much offense here. 10* Arizona State 

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Two typically strong mid-major programs square off tonight in Cedar Falls w/ N Iowa hosting TX-Arlington. The host Panthers, despite struggling last season, figure to be one of the big beneficiaries of Wichita State leaving the Missouri Valley for greener pastures. TX-Arlington is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Last year, the Mavericks upset both St. Mary's and Texas in non-conf play, but ultimately fell short of their goal of making the NCAA Tournament (did win conf tourney). Both programs are off to strong starts this season w/ UT-Arlington at 7-1 and Northern Iowa at 6-2. But it's the latter's defense and homecourt advantage that should prove to be the difference-makers in this one. 

UT-Arlington has lost just the one time (by a single point at Alabama!), but they've also been involved in a number of close games. They have three wins by exactly five points so far, including the last one, which came at home against North Texas as a 16-pt favorite. Of note is that in the last two games, the Mavericks have scored their fewest number of points in a game this season. That benchmark will again be tested tonight when they face a N Iowa team permitting only 58.5 PPG overall and just 50.0 here in Cedar Falls. Only North Carolina in the season opener has topped 68 against the Panthers. This game will arguably be decided by which team defends the three-point line better. I believe that will be the home team.

Northern Iowa's only two losses this year have been to North Carolina and Villanova. That's some pretty exclusive company. They're off an extended break here, having not played since last Wednesday when they downed UNLV 77-68 (in overtime) as a one-point favorite on this floor. Perhaps RPI is an outdated metric, but it's worth noting it currently has Northern Iowa at #26 in the nation! The Panthers rank fifth nationally in scoring defense. The fact they were able to still beat UNLV, despite shooting a woeful 2 of 14 from three-point range is actually a mark in their favor. Bennett Koch led the way w/ a career-high 30 points and Tywhon Pickford is #12 in the nation in rebounding. This is a good team, that's rested and playing at home. The situation favors them. 10* Northern Iowa

10* Harvard (7:00 ET): The Crimson were expected to be a contender in the Ivy League this season w/ LY's champ Princeton not expected to be as strong. But it's been a rocky start to the season. Granted, you can put blame on the fact they haven't played a home game since November 12th. (Tonight marks their eighth consecutive game away from home). But the Crimson have been favored three times in their last six outings and lost all of them. At least the majority of the games, save for ones at St. Mary's and Northeastern, were close. In fact, all but two Harvard games this season have been decided by single digits, four of them by six points or less. Tonight, it's "their turn" to win a close one. 

Fordham comes in w/ a 3-4 SU record despite not having played any "true" road games. They did go down to Jamaica for two games and were handled in both, including a 24-point loss to Florida State. As is the case w/ Harvard, the vast majority of the Rams' games this year have been tight ones. However, losing to East Tenn State at home was not a "great look" nor was beating Maine by only one there on Saturday. In fact, they needed OT to get by the Black Bears on what was a terrible shooting night for both teams. This is not a deep Fordham team and two players remain questionable for undisclosed reasons (Bunting, Ohams). I should also mention that Fordham has won only once in its last six tries as a home dog of three points or less.

These teams met last year w/ Harvard winning by 12 (64-52) on its home floor. Fordham fell victim to dreadful shooting again, as in a 33.3 FG% overall, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range. It should be noted that Harvard has taken on a far more challenging schedule thus far, including a game at Kentucky their last time out (only lost by 9, despite shooting 37.1%). They've yet to really have a great shooting night this season, but thankfully Fordham (40.7% overall) has been even colder. Harvard did make 12 three-pointers against Kentucky. 10* Harvard 

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, so now seems like as good a time as any to start "picking them off." One of the LEAST heralded from the "lucky 13" is Nevada, who not only brings a perfect 8-0 SU record to the table, but is also 7-0-1 ATS. That push came last time out in an 11-pt win at UC Irvine. Credit the Wolfpack for playing a decent number of "true" road games to this point (this will be #5), but this marks their furthest trip East to date and it's the second in four days. Nevada may be the team that's ranked in the latest AP poll (#22), but Texas Tech is higher in virtually every reasonable power rankings system and is the deserved favorite here. They hand Nevada it's first loss tonight! 

Texas Tech is off its first loss, which took place Thursday against Seton Hall, who is also ranked. That game was played in Madison Square Garden and the Red Raiders (who in the interest of full disclosure, I was ON) blew a three-point halftime lead, eventually losing by 10. What was most disconcerting was the defense. Tech came into the game ranked 5th nationally in scoring defense (55.3 PPG) and 2nd in FG% allowed (33.5%). But they allowed Seton Hall to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. The Pirates accounted for the two highest scoring halves of basketball against the Red Raiders this season.

I don't see a repeat of that from Nevada. Yes, the Wolfpack come in averaging a healthy 85 PPG. But now it's time for their scoring average to take a tumble as this will - easily - be their toughest test to date. Texas Tech is a deep team; 10 players average 10 minutes or more and at least 4.9 points per game. They are led by Keenan Evans' 15.9 PPG. Again, I point to the defense as Nevada isn't Seton Hall and back at home, the Red Raiders should reassert their dominance at that end of the floor. In terms of the situation, it clearly favors Texas Tech, who was off this weekend, while Nevada is playing the second of B2B road games. 10* Texas Tech

8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): For the third straight year, these schools are renewing acquaintances and both come in ranked in the Top 20. Virginia, at #15, is one of the 13 remaining schools nationally w/o a loss. WVU, who checks in at #20 in the latest poll, lost it's first game by 23 to Texas A&M. But the Mountaineers haven't lost since and for the 1st time in the three-year span, get to host the Hoos. They're hoping for a repeat of LY when they pulled the upset in Charlottesville, 66-57 as eight-point dogs. They wound up making a run to the Sweet 16 before being ousted by eventual runner-up Gonzaga. Virginia, who two years ago made the Elite 8, was eliminated in the 2nd round by Florida.

Virginia has played one "true" road game thus far, but it was in-state against Va Commonwealth. They did win and cover, 76-67 as 6.5-pt chalk, but keep in mind the Rams were early on under the direction of a 1st year HC. This will clearly be the Hoos' biggest challenge to date against a fast-paced opponent that forces 22 turnovers per game. Virginia, who has held every opponent but Va Commonwealth to below 55 pts, plays at a very deliberate pace. So the outcome here will largely depend on tempo. Again, the Cavaliers handled Va Commonwealth's pressure well, but WVU is a different animal in Morgantown where they're winning by an average of basically 40 points per game! 

It was an ugly opener against A&M, but since then Bob Huggins' team hasn't looked back, scoring 83 or more in every game during a seven-game win streak. They topped 100 last time out against overmatched NJIT. Virginia has covered all but one of its games, but this is a short number they're taking against an opponent that's won 33 of its past 37 home games. I see Virginia falling for the first time here as everyone's going to lose eventually and now is the Hoos' time. 8* West Virginia

10* Indiana (8:00 ET): Is it really time for conference play to begin? The Big 10 got an early jump with conference games starting over the weekend and has three more games on tonight's schedule, including this one in Bloomington where mediocre Indiana hosts mediocre Iowa. Both squads enter at 4-4 SU having dropped their respective Big 10 openers. For Indiana, they were in a terrible spot (coming off the Duke game) and lost at Michigan 69-55 (as 7.5-point dogs). Iowa lost at home, by four, to Penn State. Overall, the Hawkeyes have now dropped four of five including losses as favorites to LA Lafayette and South Dakota State. That makes it pretty tough to like their chances tonight in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are looking to snap their own two-game losing streak. Lay the short number.

Indiana drew the "short straw" in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge having to play #1 Duke. Sharp action might have been on them, but IU failed to cover the closing number (+9), losing 91-81. The Hoosiers played the Blue Devils tough as there were 11 ties and 10 lead changes in the first half alone. But a 17-4 Duke run in the 2H sealed the game. It certainly didn't help that the Hoosiers shot only 16 of 26 from the FT line and 5 of 21 from three-point range. But then, Archie Miller's team saw its streak of three consecutive games w/ 80+ points end Saturday in Ann Arbor as they shot just 40% from the field and fell into an early hold too deep to climb out of. Oddly, IU attempted only ONE three-pointer in the entire 1H. Bottom line is that I expect them to shoot much better at home.

Iowa is in far more "dire straits" than Indiana right now though. For the first time since '01, they lost at Carver-Hawkeye to Penn State, 77-73 on Saturday. Maybe, we shouldn't be all that surprised, however. The Hawkeyes were four-point underdogs in the game and as noted above, lost to both LA Lafayette and South Dakota State already. Their first "true" road game was a complete disaster as they were blown out by 24 at Virginia Tech. Still though, Iowa never led against Penn State and turned the ball over 18 times. Not good signs for this game. Nor is the fact they made only four three-pointers in their loss to the Nittany Lions. I think the three-point line will be the difference again in this one and w/ Iowa giving up over 80 PPG its last five contests, Indiana's offense gets back on track. 10* Indiana

10* Central Florida (2:00 ET): Saturday marked a bit of a bittersweet day on the campus of UCF. While the football team completed an unbeaten regular season (will go to Peach Bowl) w/ a thrilling, double OT win over Memphis, at the same time it was announced that HC Scott Frost will be departing for Nebraska (not a shock). The basketball program has far less fanfare in Orlando, but Sunday will do something that the football program would love to do and that's play Alabama. You have to wonder what the pointspread would be on the football field (my guess is it would be a little higher) if these two schools met. I'm not sure what I'd do in that hypothetical matchup, but here on the basketball court Sunday, I'll be taking the points. 

Now the Golden Knights arrive in Tuscaloosa (first "true" road game) on a three-game losing streak and in two of the losses they were held below 50 points. But at the same time, two of the losses were by three points and the competition was pretty fierce. They played West Virginia, St. John's and Missouri, all of whom rank in my top 50. The one blowout was at the hands of West Virginia, part of the Advocare Invitational (in Lake Buena Vista), the best of the lost and in that game UCF simply could not make a shot as they finished at 24.5% overall including just 1 of 12 from three-point range. Suffice to say, they probably won't have another shooting night that bad the rest of the season. Now, defensively, there are no issues here as the Golden Knights are holding their opponents to just 37.8% shooting for the year. Taking this many points, that's huge. 

Alabama has just the one loss, the now-infamous game vs. Minnesota where they were down to three players and still only lost by five. They bounced back Wednesday w/ a win over Louisiana Tech, but only by three as 11.5-pt favorites.  The big key here is that the Crimson Tide, a guard-oriented team, is going to have trouble stopping UCF's 7'6" monster Tacko Fall, who so far is averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Purportedly, the Tide will counter w/ Daniel Giddens, who normally does not see much playing time (only averages 2.4 pts, 2.0 rebounds in 11 minutes per game). Note that the Tide had to overcome a double digit deficit in the 2nd half just to beat La Tech earlier this week as they trailed by 11 w/ 14 minutes left. UCF is a desperate team w/ size and will be a very "tough out" Sunday afternoon. 10* Central Florida

10* Kansas (5:30 ET): It's still (very) early in the season, but for my money, Kansas is the #1 team in the country. Currently, they are ranked #2, so the pollsters aren't too far off. However, I can't say the same for the oddsmakers in the spot as they have the Jayhawks favored by NOT nearly enough in a matchup w/ Syracuse down in Miami, a battle of 6-0 teams. However, as we know, "not all unbeatens are created equal" and in this instance we have an underdog that hasn't really played anybody or even had to leave the Carrier Dome (this early season philosophy has long been a hallmark under Jim Boeheim). I do NOT anticipate a repeat of the '03 NCAA Championship Game when a Carmello Anthony-led Syracuse team beat Kansas. Lay the points in this spot. 

Kansas' schedule hasn't exactly been a "murderer's row," but they did leave Lawrence once to beat Kentucky (Champions Classic) in the second game of the year. There were some struggles offensively in that game (only scored 65 pts) and perhaps there is some concern here going against Syracuse's trademark zone defense. But the Jayhawks are simply too talented. Thanks to averaging 94.5 PPG overall, they own the nation's top scoring differential at +33.0 PPG. All five starters are currently averaging at least 13.5 PPG. Last time out, they blitzed Toledo w/ a 30-2 run in the first half, shooting 75% from the floor en route to a 96-58 win and cover. Other than Kentucky, no opponent has even come within 34 points of the Jayhawks this season. Yes, those opponents haven't been great, but destroying them in the fashion they have is a mark in Kansas' favor.

A key in this game will be three-point shooting. KU is making an astounding 45.2% of its shots from behind the arc while Syracuse is at a paltry 29.1%. Compounding this issue is the way each team defends the arc. Kansas' opponents are making just 30.3% of their 3-pt attempts while Syracuse opponents are making 34% of theirs. While Jayhawks' HC Bill Self is on the record as saying "any" of his five starters are capable of scoring 20+ (pts) on a given night, Boeheim has lamented his offense by saying "we need to start making some shots." What's been key for the Orange thus far is a massive edge in second-chance points, but that likely will not exist here against a bigger, longer opponent and given the disparity in three-point shooting, I just don't see any way Syracuse keeps this game close. 10* Kansas

8* Manhattan (11:30 AM ET): It's a very early start time over in Belfast, Northern Ireland (!) and neither of these two teams are playing well. Holy Cross has lost three straight, all by double digits, while Manhattan has done the Crusaders "one worse" by losing its last four. However, two of those defeats came by four points or less and in Sunday's loss to Fordham, they turned the ball over 25 times, which doesn't seem "repeatable."  Defensively, HC is a mess as they've allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 53% from the floor and in their last game, the opponent (Albany) had 10 more FG attempts, which is how the final score got so lopsided. I look for Manhattan to have its best offensive game of the season (to date) and get the win/cover. 

Holy Cross shot the ball pretty well last Saturday against Albany (home game), finishing at 50%. They also had three double digits scorers. However, as I mentioned above, the problem was not only that they allowed the Great Danes to shoot 53.4%, but they also had 10 more attempts. Not surprisingly then, we find that HC was dominated on boards, getting outrebounded 32-23. The three-point line was another factor as Albany shot 47.6% from behind the arc and HC was at only 27.8%. Defense has been an issue for the Crusaders as they are giving up an average of 77.2 points per game.  They have also been outrebounded in EVERY game so far.

Ironically, both of these teams started their respective seasons 2-0, which included wins over Harvard by an identical final score of 73-69! Both beat the Crimson on their home floors. In both cases, our two teams here jumped out to a double digit lead and had to hold on. As I said earlier, in their last game, Manhattan turned the ball over 25 times and as a result fell to Fordham by a final score of 70-57 as 4.5-pt underdogs. If the Jaspers turn the ball over that many times again, clearly, they're going to lose. But, fortunately, TO's really hadn't been a problem in any of the first five games. Again, HC has been blown out in three straight games. This is their first lined affair, but I reckon that had the oddsmakers hung a number on any of their previous three games, they'd been 0-3 ATS.  The travel isn't an advantage for either side, but I simply believe Manhattan to be the better team. 8* Manhattan

8* South Carolina (9:00 ET): Save for a loss to Illinois State in the relocated Puerto Rico Classic, Frank Martin's Gamecocks have played pretty well this season (5-1 SU), carrying over from LY's surprise Final Four run. Not many players returned from that group, but one that did - Chris Silva - led the way Monday night w/ a career-best 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 78-61 win over FIU, the team's first "true" roadie of this campaign. All four South Carolina victories this season have been by double-digits. That's what I'm looking for tonight as they play a neutral site game vs Temple tonight in Madison Square Garden, as part of the Under Armor Reunion Doubleheader. (First game is Seton Hall vs. Texas Tech).

Temple hasn't played as many games as USC (only 4) and comes in at 3-1 SU, impressive because they have yet to play an actual home game! They are, however, off their first loss, which came at LaSalle on Sunday. It was a particularly brutal setback for the Owls considering they led most of the way and even by double digits in the second half. But, over the final 10 minutes, they allowed LaSalle to score 29 points after allowing just 58 in the first 30. The key was a three-minute scoreless stretch, which allowed the Explorers to catch up. The Owls figure to struggle to score here against a South Carolina defense which is allowing only 39.5% shooting for the year, a hallmark under HC Martin.

It wasn't just Silva getting the job done for South Carolina against FIU; four players scored in double figures, including Frank Booker, who has been a solid addition via transfer. Booker (came from Florida Atlantic) leads the team in three-pointers made (17) and is shooting 40.5% from the arc. He is a senior. Both of these teams have fared remarkably well in neutral site affairs recently w/ USC at 11-3 ATS L14 and Temple doing them "one better" at 12-3 L15. So there's no real edge there. But how about the fact that MSG is where South Carolina won its Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Games in LY's stunning NCAA Tourney run? Perhaps that's an edge? The Gamecocks have not allowed more than 69 pts to any opponent this season. FIU shot just 4 of 17 from three-point range against them and USC had a major edge in rebounding while forcing 17 turnovers. They are the better team here. 8* South Carolina

10* Miami FL (9:15 ET): The Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge continues on Wednesday w/ the latter currently holding a commanding 6-1 advantage. (I cashed Florida St last night, albeit barely!). The Big 10's only win thus far came in perhaps the most marquee game to date, Purdue over Louisville, last night. It's also important to remember that Michigan State did just clobber North Carolina in a non-Challenge game on Sunday. That said, I'm sticking with the ACC today. It is interesting to note that in four of the six games scheduled for tonight, the Big 10 team is favored. One of those is Miami @ Minnesota, a matchup of two unbeaten teams ranked in the top 12. For Miami, this will be the first "real" test and their first "true" road game as well. Minnesota has won at Providence, but other than that, their schedule has been pretty soft too. I'm taking the points.

Given the level of competition, the "U's" scoring differential is probably what you'd expect. It's currently sitting at +25.8 points per game w/ all five wins coming by at least 11 points. Their latest, 86-65 over North Florida, came Saturday. Despite making only three three-pointers (on 15 attempts), the Hurricanes still manage to score 86 points, which is a pretty good sign. It was the the third time in four games scoring that many. I don't have much of an explanation for why they only scored 57 against LaSalle last week, but it should be noted that they did hold the Explorers w/o a single three-point FG in that game. Sophomore Bruce Brown may have "turned a corner" in the game vs. North Florida as he went for a team-high 14 pts. This is a very balanced team for HC Jim Larranaga and they have seven outright wins (in 16 overall tries) as an underdog the L3 seasons. 

There's only one Pitino left in the head coaching ranks and he is at Minnesota w/ Richard (Rick's son) leading the charge. The Golden Gophers are 7-0 SU and coming off wins over UMass and Alabama in the Barclays Center Classic over the weekend. While some may cite the stronger level of competition as a positive for Minnesota here, I think it could work against them as Miami has had less to deal with coming into tonight. Also, while they did dominate from start to finish against a ranked foe (Bama) on Saturday, note the Gophers only had to play against three players for a portion of the second half! Therefore, all of a sudden, a five-point win there doesn't look so impressive, does it? Minnesota has allowed 74 or more points four times already this season, which is a concern when laying points to an opponent as talented as Miami. 10* Miami FL

8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Of all the matchups in this year's Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge, this one probably ranks near the bottom for most in terms of interest. However, it should be pointed out that both of these teams are undefeated, Florida State at 5-0 and Rutgers at 6-0. However, in the case of both (particularly the latter), that's a byproduct of a weak schedule. Rutgers has not even yet had to leave campus (nor are they tonight) and their opposition thus far has been every bit as poor as it reads (NY City Tech, C Conn St, Cleveland St, Coppin St, Bryant and East Carolina). FSU at least "dared" to leave Tallahassee for a short bit, playing Fordham and Colorado State in Jamaica. The Seminoles have yet to win a game by fewer than 19 pts and thus I'll lay a short number w/ them here. 

The 'Noles last game was an easy 113-78 win over The Citadel on Friday. Now, we shouldn't get too excited about that point total as those familiar w/ the sport will tell you that many teams score 100+ against The Citadel. However, FSU did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low 33.3% shooting. That's notable b/c LY, The Citadel led the nation in scoring. So, it was actually the effort on the defensive end that was the greater achievement there. FSU is a deep team w/ plenty of length and size. Rutgers, like The Citadel, will struggle to score in this game. Mark my words.

Four of Rutgers' six games have not been lined, which should tell you about the level of competition right there. They've yet to play a team ranked higher than #245 in my own power rankings! Florida State comes in at #40 for me, so this will be quite the major step up in class for the Scarlet Knights. Yes, I'm conceding that the Seminoles haven't really played "anyone" either, but is there anyone willing to make the claim that Rutgers is the better team here? I certainly hope not. Even w/ the homecourt advantage, Rutgers won't be able to keep this one close as they're likely to be crushed on the interior by an opponent that is shooting almost 53% from the field, for the year. 8* Florida State

8* Alabama State (7:00 ET): Normally, "best practice" when selecting an underdog, in any sport, is to have a belief that there's a chance they could take the game straight up. Clearly though, that is NOT the case here. But look at this pointspread for a minute. All we are asking for is a team NOT to lose by FORTY points! I think that's doable. And I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Cincinnati basketball team and thinks they should be ranked even higher than they currently are (#12/#13 in AP/Coaches). But coming off an impressive showing in the Cayman Islands, I look for the Bearcats to "look right past" this game as they have a huge date w/ city rival Xavier looming this weekend. Take the points. 

While Cincy is 6-0 SU (3-1 ATS), Alabama State finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum at 0-6 SU (0-1 ATS). Yes, their one lined game saw them getting 35.5 pts and they failed to cover, losing 114-56 at Oregon. But, let's give the Hornets some credit for trying, shall we? With the exception of their last game, the Hornets have done nothing but play "true" road games. They were hardly competitive in any of them, but other than Oregon, they didn't lose any by more than 34 points. It's certainly a "low bar" we're setting for ASU here, but that's where the oddsmakers come in. Now, the Hornets did just lose last week (101-97) to a Savannah State team that Cincy beat by 30 points. But a 61-point second half there (!) should at least give them some hope for tonight. That was a neutral site affair, by the way, played in Chattanooga, TN. 

Not only does Cincy have Xavier looming, but they also have dates w/ Florida, Mississippi State and UCLA coming up as well. Simply put, this game is unlikely to hold the players' interest, even though they can easily win it w/o much effort. Only twice in the L20 seasons have the Bearcats been favored in a game by more than 30 points. Also, it should be mentioned that they are playing "home games" this season off-campus, at Northern Kentucky due to their own arena undergoing renovations. Maybe that matters some? Regardless, Alabama State should be way more up for this game than Cincinnati and should keep it within 40 points. 8* Alabama State

8* Texas A&M (10:00 ET): We've got a pair of unbeatens meeting Sunday night in Los Angeles w/ USC hosting Texas A&M. The visitors will have revenge on their mind for LY's 65-63 loss in College Station where they were six-point favorites. Both teams are ranked (USC #10 and A&M #16) in the latest AP Poll while the Aggies are a few spots lower (#19) according to the Coach's (who also have USC #10). However, I have A&M rated as the better team. Tip your cap to the job Andy Enfield is doing at Southern Cal, but I'm not sure we're not "putting the cart before the horse" when it comes to this season's presumed Pac 12 favorite (along w/ Arizona). I expect payback this year from the Aggies.

This will be Texas A&M's first "true" road game, but they have won at neutral sites over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Penn State. Every win so far (5-0) has come by double digits, including two nights ago at home over lowly Pepperdine (81-65). That margin was actually not close to what the oddsmakers were calling for (-28), but I think that can be chalked up to looking ahead to this game."I thought our energy wasn't very good at times, but when we needed it we were able to raise it up a level at the end," Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy said. "Winning two big games (in New York) and then coming home, we didn't play like a veteran team." It should be noted that A&M still played very good defense against the Waves, as they held them to just 38.7% shooting from the floor, including 4 of 19 from three-point range.

They'll need to bring that same defense here as USC comes in shooting at a torrid 46% from three-point range in the last two contests, wins over Vanderbilt and Lehigh. Needless to say, I think A&M is going to hold them in check as shooting at that kind of rate from distance is hard to sustain anyway. Last year, the Aggies held the Trojans to just 5 of 26 shooting from three-point range. The level of competition USC has faced thus far has not been all that challenging. The win over Vandy was a "true" road game, but came by only four points. Both times the Trojans have been a home fave of three points or less under Enfield, they've lost outright. A&M has already pulled one upset this year, beating West Virginia by 23 when they were seven-point dogs. In four of the five games so far, A&M has allowed 65 or fewer points. They are #9 in defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings. That will be the difference in this one. 8* Texas A&M

10* Georgetown (6:00 ET): Little was expected from Patrick Ewing, perhaps the school's most famous alumnus, and Georgetown this year. But his Hoyas have started 3-0 SU w/ every win comig by at least 26 points! Now, the competition has hardly been "fierce," nor have they had to leave home. The latter changes this evening w/ a visit to Richmond, however, just like the Hoyas' previous three opponents, the Spiders should provide little resistance. They're 1-4 SU w/ three of those losses coming by double digits, two of them when favored. Consider they've already lost a game - by 33 (!) - Jacksonville State this year! Not to mention Delaware came here and won by 13. That's a pretty ominous sign for the season and I look for Ewing's chargers to remain unbeaten here. 

While Richmond is off a trip to the Cayman Islands (lost twice), Georgetown has been off for the last week. Last Saturday, the Hoyas beat MD-Eastern Shore 83-57. It was their third straight non-lined affair to start the season. Both Jessie Govan and Marcus Derrickson turned in double-doubles and Kaleb Johnson scored a career-high 24 points. The game was over by halftime as the Hoyas led 40-19 and they actually started the game w/ a 35-8 run! Now, we all figure that once Big East play gets underway, the Hoyas are going to struggle. But that's still a month away. Ewing is going to enjoy a grace period here no matter what (has never coached at any level), but he'd sure like to continue racking up the wins to earn further good will among the fan base. A (very) soft non-conference schedule should allow him to do so. 

Richmond did not do well in the Cayman Islands, meaning their backers won't be able to stash any money there. They first lost to to Cincinnati (no shame there) 75-48 as 16.5-pt dogs. Then came a loss to La Lafayette, 82-76 as seven-point dogs. That one was particularly painful as they actually led by as many as seven in the second half and by six w/ just seven minutes to go. Similar to G'town in the Big East, not much is expected from Richmond this year in the Atlantic 10. It's pretty telling that the Spiders are listed as underdogs here. They've covered only 9 of their previous 27 home games and outright losses to the likes of Delaware and Jacksonville State may mean things will get worse before they get any better. The Hoyas have covered 14 of teir last 18 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* Georgetown

10* Youngstown State (9:00 ET): With all the Holiday Tournaments going on around the country, this game is certainly likely to be off most bettors' radar, but I think it offers some solid value on the dog. Youngstown State may be only 2-2 SU, but they've scored at least 78 pts in every game, so getting some help from the oddsmakers is a nice luxury to have. Now, the Penguins have played two lined game thus far, neither working out, even though they were the dog in both. That's because they allowed over 100 pts to both Kent and Canisius. Their two wins came at the expense of Franciscan University and Westminster (PA). But it's not as if Northern Colorado is any "great shakes" as they've twice lost by double digits, only to come back and win games at Pepperdine (by two) and over non-board team Northern New Mexico. This is a neutral site game, played in Sioux Falls as part of the Sanford Pentagon Showcase. I'll take the points.

Not much is being expected from YSU this season. They finished 8th in the 10-team Horizon League last season and that's where they are being pegged again this season. They have a 1st year HC in Jerrod Calhoun, who found success at D-II Fairmont State, who he led to the title game last season. Calhoun replaces Jerry Slocum, who retired after 12 seasons on the job. There is some talent here, notably senior Cameron Morse, a two-time All-Horizon League selection. Sophomore Braun Hartfield, a Cleveland-area native, scored a career-high 31 pts in the loss to Canisius last week. Freshman Garrett Covington is off to a nice start as he scored 18 pts (career-high) in the last game and is shooting 72% from the field. He also had seven steals in the team's first win of the year. 

Northern Colorado is off a 39-point win, which I guess is why they are favored here, but I'm not sure they deserve to be. The Big Sky rep is just 4-10 ATS when laying points the previous three seasons. The Bears finished towards the bottom of the Big Sky last season. They don't shoot the ball particularly well (40.3 FG%), including 26.9% from three-point range. They easily could be 1-3 SU entering this game. 10* Youngstown State

8* Providence (7:00 ET): Fresh off taking the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, Providence returns home to host mid-major "power" Belmont Wednesday night. The Friars aren't in the Top 25 currently, but are in the "Others Receiving Votes" category as their only loss so far was to #15 Minnesota. In MSG, they beat Washington and St. Louis, the latter by 27 on Friday (90-63) thanks to an incredible shooting display of 62.0% overall, including 9 of 10 from three-point range! And that Washington win is notable b/c the Huskies are the only team to have beaten tonight's opponent this season. Belmont has won four straight since losing their season opener, but the last two were far from impressive, and I don't think this line is nearly high enough. 

Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season and so far they've shown why they can be a player in that tough league. This is an excellent shooting team (52.3% overall) that even knocked down 79.2% of its FT's against St. Louis. That last game saw the Friars lead by as many as 31 as they assisted on 21 of their 31 made field goals. Consider they did that against a defense that had been allowing just 55.7 PPG previously. A big difference between this team and previous editions under HC Ed Cooley is the depth. Ten players played at least 15 minutes against SLU and only two are averaging more than 30 per game for the season.The Friars have won 29 of their last 37 home games.

Belmont is again favored to take the Ohio Valley Conference this season, but tonight's game is a big step up in class for them after facing patsies Houston Baptist and Seattle the L2 games. Despite scoring 90+ both games, the Bruins went 0-2 ATS and even barely escaped Houston Baptist, winning by just five. It was also a close game into the 2H vs. Seattle. Now previously, they did beat a pair of NCAA Tournament teams from LY (Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee), so they've shown they are capable of stepping up. But they did lose to Washington (as two-point road favorites), who lost handily to Providence. The fact the Bruins were favored in Seattle does say something about the respect this team carries, but losing on the road was also telling. As an underdog, Belmont has dropped 12 of 17 the L3 seasons. 8* Providence

10* Davidson (10:00 ET): This is a non-Holiday Tournament matchup on the Tuesday slate, which is the exception and not the rule. It features a Nevada team that has been a covering machine the last several seasons (47-25 ATS L72) including a perfect 4-0 to start 2017. But tonight they'll host a Davidson team that is better rested and also topped 100 pts in both of its games thus far. That has me thinking now would be an appropriate time to fade the Wolfpack. In what figures to be a high-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go here. 

Expect plenty of fireworks in this game. Davidson doesn't just lead the country in three-point field goals made per game (19.5), they average FOUR more makes per game than the second-best team! They have four shooters who are a threat from behind the arc. One of them, Peyton Aldridge, was called the "Larry Bird of the Atlantic 10" by Nevada HC Eric Musselman. Another, Kellan Grady, Musslman called the "best freshman in the entire country." Those two have combined to average more than 50 pts for the Wildcats. The team won its season opener, 110-62 over Charleston Southern, thanks to a school record 26 made three-pointers (on 53 attempts). Grady made seven of those in his debut. The Wildcats turned the ball over only once the entire game and led 24-0 at one point. That was followed w/ a 108-81 win over UNC Wilmington. Aldridge scored a career-high 37 pts in that one. Simply put, this team is playing too well right now to be getting this many points. 

While Davidson has been off for a full week, Nevada has had to play twice in the previous six days, both times on the road. They did win each, over Pacific and Santa Clara (two WCC teams), by double digits. Santa Clara, they routed by 30, 93-63. Pacific was a closer game, 89-74, though the Wolfpack led comfortably throughout. Ironically, they achieved a school record in three-pointers in that game w/ 17. These teams seem pretty similar to me, but Davidson is better at making three's and turns the ball over less. Those could very well be the keys here to an outright win, or staying within the number at the very least. Then there is the rest factor. Davidson has won each of the last three times it has played w/ five or six days' rest. 10* Davidson

8* Marquette (2:30 ET): Two "under the radar" programs that have long since stopped being under the radar clash Monday afternoon in Maui. Both VCU and Marquette enter in off home losses, but those were expected considering the competition. VCU fell to to Virginia, 76-67 as 6.5-pt dogs. The "Havoc Defense" we are accustomed seeing from the Rams just wasn't there against their bigger in-state rival as it was them that turned it over a dozen times (only forced five) and they never got closer than three in the second half. Note Virginia is not currently ranked, by the way. The team that Marquette lost to, Purdue, is however. A size disadvantage was too much to overcome for the Golden Eagles as they were crushed in the paint and lost 86-71 (only trailed by 2 at half).

Marquette is patiently waiting for the 6'11" Harry Froiling, a SMU transfer, to become eligible next month. Until then, look for HC Steve Wojciechowski's team to play small ball. Sam Hauser and Markus Howard form an excellent starting backcourt. This team is more than capable of really lighting it up from three-point range w/ the addition of Andrew Rowsey, a UNC Asheville transfer that has 48 pts in two games. Off their first NCAA Tourney appearance in four years last season, the Golden Eagles likely finish as a middle of the pack team in the Big East this year. But that does not necessarily mean they are not a good team. 

VCU is one of only eight programs to make the NCAA Tournament each of the last seven seasons. But they have a new HC this year as Will Wade departed for LSU. Mike Rhoades was an assistant back in the Shaka Smart days, so he knows the program well. Still, the inability to force turnovers against Virginia was certainly disconcerting. Rhoades felt his team was "well prepared" for that UVA game, but if so, that's not a good thing considering the result. This is one of the weaker VCU teams in recent memory and they have lost 13 of the last 15 times (straight up) that they have been an underdog. 8* Marquette

10* Clemson (9:30 ET): Perhaps taking a cue from the school's football team, Clemson basketball is already 4-0 this year w/ three of the wins coming by double digits. The one exception was an 81-76 win over Ohio on Thursday, but they led that game by as many as 15 pts before letting the Bobcats in through the "back door." The Tigers are averaging 82.7 PPG thus far, an impressive number. Tonight finds them as a slight favorite against a Temple team that has played only twice (both wins) and off a minor upset of Auburn on Friday. The Owls' season didn't even begin until Thursday when Clemson had already played twice by that point. I think the additional games played for the Tigers is a big edge here and I'll take them here in Charleston at a great price.

This is the third time that Clemson has reached the Final Game of the Charleston Classic. It's their first time participating in the event since 2013-14, which - not coincidentally marked the last time they started a season at 4-0 SU better. This particular edition of the Tigers is not shy about hoisting three-pointers (45 attempts last two games) and was 10 of 28 from behind the arc in Friday's 78-59 win against overmatched Hofstra. While they have only two starters back from LY, the starting five accounted for 68 of the team's 78 points. Defensively, it was a strong effort as they held the Pride to only 44% shooting from the floor. This event taking place in Charleston is obviously a huge edge for Clemson. 

Temple has now covered 12 of its last 13 November games following a 2-0 ATS start this year. It was a "tale of two halves" against Auburn on Friday as they shot only 33.3% in the first  (led by one at the break), but then 67.9% in the second and pulled away for the 88-74 win as a 2.5-pt dog. The team's first game was against Old Dominion and they won there 76-65 as a short favorite. Interestingly, it was the complete opposite of the Auburn game as they shot 51% in the first half, but only 25% in the second. So they've yet to really play a good game for 40 minutes. This will be the Owls' toughest test to date and it comes at an event where Clemson is 7-1 SU all-time, including a win over Temple in the 2008 Final! The Tigers have held three of their four opponents under 70 pts and that's huge because Temple is just 1-14 SU the L15 times it has not gone over 70 pts. 10* Clemson

10* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has opened a disappointing 0-2 SU/ATS, having faced both Butler and BYU. They were favored over the latter, at home, Wednesday night but shot only 37.7% from the floor and scored 56 points. That was a major disappointing considering how well they shot (55.6%) against Butler (road game) in the opener. I'll call for something close to that here as Princeton faces a St. Joe's squad, which has given up an average of 90 points through its first two games. The Hawks would be 0-2 themselves if not for an overtime win at UIC Monday. They trailed by as many as 11 late in the second half there. That was after giving up 98 in regulation at Toledo in the season opener. Though less rested and on the road, I like the underdog here.

This game will come down to how well Princeton can shoot the ball. Considering they shot at a 55.6% clip already this year, we know what they're capable of doing. They even shot 60% from three-point range in that first game. The issue there was they fell behind early (trailed by 10 at half) and were dominated on the boards by Butler (outrebounded 31-18). I do not expect either situation to present itself again tonight. Against BYU, the Tigers actually enjoyed a 36-23 edge on the boards, but in a cruel twist of fate could not make baskets. It was a two-point game w/ just three minutes to go, but Princeton could get no closer.

As I stated earlier, St. Joe's should feel pretty fortunate that they too are not entering this contest at 0-2 SU. Trailing UIC by double digits is not a "good look," even if the Hawks were slight underdogs on the road. Nor was getting blitzed by Toledo a good look either. St. Joe's fell behind in that game, 18-4, and trailed the whole way. They also allowed the Rockets to make 14 of 25 from three-point range! Considering Princeton has shot at a 47.1% clip from behind the arc these first two games, look for that to be an effective option tonight. Take the points. 10* Princeton

8* Quinnipiac (6:00 ET): This is a neutral site affair, part of the Paradise Jam, which takes place in Lynchburg, Virginia. The winner will play either Drake or Wake Forest in Saturday's semifinals. Colorado is 2-0 SU, having beaten in-state foes Northern Colorado and Denver by double digits. But despite also going 2-0 ATS in those games, it really tells us very little about where the Buffaloes are actually at entering 2017. This is a much different team than the one that went 19-15 SU a year ago, personnel wise. Four players were lost to graduation, leaving a rotation that is a "work in progress" according to HC Tad Boyle. There are eight newcomers that have seen action thus far. One of them is NOT freshman Evan Battey, who was expected to be a starter in the frontcourt, but instead must sit out this entire year due to academics.

Quinnipiac is 1-1 SU so far, having played two close games against Ivy League schools. They opened w/ a one-point win over Dartmouth and then followed that up by losing by seven to Brown. Both were home games for a school known more for its polling institute than its athletic programs. From 2009 to 2014, the Bobcats produced three 20+ win seasons. However, they are just 34-57 SU the L3 seasons under HC Tom Moore. One positive here though is that they have covered four of their last five neutral court games. They also have one of the top players in the MAAC, that being Chaise Daniels, a senior who has 39 pts, 11 rebounds and six blocks in the first two games. Freshman Rich Kelly looks to be an impactful newcomer as he's scored in double figures in both games.

Though they've previously covered twice as double-digit favorites, this is the biggest spread to date for Colorado and I wouldn't trust them just yet, especially at a neutral setting. Furthermore, they've actually lost 6 of their previous 10 neutral site games. Not saying they'll lose this one outright, but winning by this kind of margin seems unlikely. The 27-point win over Denver on Tuesday can be explained by the fact that the Buffs had four days off before the game. They still allowed the Pioneers to shoot 55.6% from the floor in the 1H though before the underdog admittedly ran out of gas. I'm also not sure CU will get to enjoy a 2:1 rebounding edge, like they had vs. Denver, again tonight. Quinnipiac actually shot well in the loss to Brown (48%) and if they can do that again, they should easily cover here. 8* Quinnipiac

10* Utah (8:00 ET): Here's an interesting, early-season non-conference battle. Both Missouri and Utah are 2-0, but that was expected by the oddmakers. The Utes have played a couple of cupcakes - Prairie View A&M and Mississippi Valley State - and blew them out by a combined 59 points. Missouri actually opened w/ Iowa State (in Columbia) and won by 15 as six-point chalk. The Tigers' last opponent, Wagner, was totally overmatched in a 99-55 final. So who comes out on top here? Well, the answer to that question likely depends a lot on who will or won't play here. Mizzou could be w/o at least one key contributor and that could be the difference. Regardless if they are shorthanded or not here, I'm fading them in their first road trip of this young season.

Utah outscored MVSU by 20 pts in each half on Tuesday, resulting in a 91-51 win. What it was clearly an overmatched opponent, I was nevertheless impressed w/ how the Utes dominated despite being w/o one of their top players Sedrick Barefield (sick). They also didn't have Jayce Johnson for a second straight game. Those are expected to be two key contributors for a team that lost four of its top six scorers from a year ago, so it's pretty impressive that they haven't "skipped a beat." Barefield is reportedly feeling better and thus is probable to play tonight. As I'll get to more in a moment, this game taking place in Salt Lake City is huge and not just because the Utes are 32-5 SU their last 37 games here. 

Missouri has lost an unconscionable 35 consecutive "true" road games dating back to a win at Arkansas in 2014! I'd say that's a "pretty big" deal in handicapping this matchup, don't you? Also there's a good chance they will be w/o their projected NBA lottery pick Michael Porter Jr, who is battling a hip injury. He's currently listed as questionable for tonight. Also, another player - guard Blake Harris - left the last game w/ a leg injury. Not only has Mizzou been an atrocious road team that last four seasons, they predictably haven't been good as an underdog either, losing 39 of 44 straight up in that role, most of those coming away from Columbia. More of the same here. 10* Utah

10* Northwestern (9:00 ET): We find a Big 10 team laying a pretty short number here to a team from the Big East, even though the game takes place in the former's gym. Northwestern has started its season w/ a couple of closer than expected victories over Loyola MD and St. Peter's, both coming by just single digits. I believe that's played an instrumental role in driving down this number far more than it ought to be. Creighton, on the other hand, has scored 92 and 109 points in its two victories, so it's easy to see why they'd look so attractive as an underdog. But I won't be taking the bait; in fact, this marks a great opportunity to take an undervalued favorite that is ranked #20 in the country. 

Michigan State is obviously the heavy favorite this year in the Big 10, but don't be surprised if Chris Collins has this N'western team not too far behind. I've seen the Wildcats pegged as high as a third-place finish! Again, they are ranked (currently #20), so they won't be sneaking up on anybody. The close win over St. Peter's comes w/ a caveat in that the Wildcats led by 18 w/ 12 minutes to go. It was clearly a case of letting the underdog back in through the back door. It was a similar story in the first game against Loyola, who they allowed to score 51 points in the second half. I suspect such lapses will not be taking place in this game. At least they better not or the Wildcats will taste defeat for the 1st time this season. Remember that Collins got N'western to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history last season. Four starters are back from that team. 

Creighton always seems to rank near the top of the country in offensive efficiency for HC McDermott. They've already made 24 three-pointers this season, shooting at a 41.1% clip from behind the arc. But that was also against much lesser competition than what they'll be facing here. Two players - Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas - have accounted for 40% of all Blue Jays' scoring this year, which is quite a bit when you consider the team has scored 201 points in the two games. Those two are the only two starters back from LY, so they're less experienced compared to their opponent tonight. That matters this time of year as does the fact Creighton is just 8-13 ATS the L21 times it has been an underdog, winning only five of those games straight up. Northwestern has covered three straight against Big East opponents, plus is 14-5 ATS their last 19 against that conference. 10* Northwestern

8* Duke (7:00 ET): Unlike football, we don't have to wait for a playoff for #1 vs. #2 in College Hoops as we're getting it here in just the second game of the season! It's Duke vs. Michigan State tonight as part of the "Champion's Classic" in Chicago The top ranked Blue Devils have actually played twice and as you'd expect, they had no difficulty in dispatching of both Utah Valley State and Elon. Michigan State has just one game under its belt and similarly had no problem, even covering a 31-point spread (barely) against North Florida (won 98-66). Sparty does have revenge here for a nine-point loss in Cameron LY (were 13-pt dogs), but the Blue Devils will be too tough yet again.

Everyone likes to say how Coach K "does things the right way," but all the young talent he's "renting" for the time being would make even Coach Cal blush. Only one Duke player - Grayson Allen - even played in LY's Michigan State game. The freshman class, led by the superb Marvin Bagley III, will carry this year's team. Thus far, Bagley has been as good as advertised, posting a double-double in each of his first two games. Bagley went for 24-10 Saturday against Utah Valley State (99-69 final), helping Coach K become the first in his profession to 1,000 career wins. Three other freshman also scored in double figures. Incredibly, Duke's first 40 points were all scored by freshman. Four start and expect there to be times when five are on the court together here. By the way, none of this should be viewed as a negative. This team is supremely talented. 

Michigan State has some key freshman as well and they'll be charged w/ helping Sparty's six-game losing skid to the Blue Devils. That includes a 2015 Final Four loss. One concern I have here for Coach Izzo's team is that they shot only 25% from three-point range in the season opener. They will NOT be able to impose their will here on the inside against a much stronger opponent. Were the spread a bit larger, I'd at least consider the underdog here, but it's basically nil and all we basically need is a straight up win from the favorite. Duke is the better team on paper and I do expect them to win. Consider that Izzo is just 5-14 SU his L19 game when listed as the dog. Look for #1 to beat #2 in this early season showdown. 8* Duke

8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Last year, LaSalle and Penn played the final of the Big 5 (Philly schools) matchups. This year, they face one another almost right out of the gate. Both squads have a game under their belt w/ LaSalle winning and Penn losing. LaSalle beat St. Peter's, handily, 61-40 as 9.5-pt home chalk on Saturday. Penn, on the other hand, got off to a disappointing start by losing 80-72 at Fairfield (also on Saturday). As much as the Quakers will be looking to bounce back here, there's another factor at play that I deem more significant and that's the fact the underdog (LaSalle) comes in w/ double revenge. Penn beat them each of the last two seasons, including an upset LY in their own gym. I'll call for the Explorers to turn the table here tough and pull off their own outright victory. Take the points.

Since making the NCAA Tournament back in 2013, La Salle has experienced some lean years. Things bottomed out two years ago w/ a 9-22 (SU) campaign, but HC John Giannini got them back to respectability last season w/ a .500 finish that was actually a bit on the disappointing side as they were 11-5 SU at one point before losing 10 of their final 14 games. They were even 5-1 SU in A-10 play at one point. This year's team is being pegged for middle of the road in the conference standings, but who knows as both Dayton and VCU should be "down" in 2017-18, thus leaving the door open. I was impressed by the team's defense in the season opener as they held St. Peter's to 15 of 49 shooting (30.6%!). I'm hoping for something similar here as LY, they allowed Penn to shoot 47.5% in a game the Explorers probably should have won. 

The Ivy League contingent shot only 36.1% in its opener, including 9 of 39 from three-point range. That number of attempts marked a school record, so we know what the philosophy seems to be here. The Quakers were outscored in the paint 36-26 by the Stags, not really a good sign when you think about it as they get set to face a bigger opponent. LaSalle clearly needs to exploit the interior in this game. It's not as if Penn is some powerhouse out of the Ivy League; they're expected to finish below Princeton, Harvard and Yale. Last year, they were fortunate to hold off LaSalle, winning by just three thanks to a career-best 35 pts from AJ Brodeur. This is a pretty young roster, especially for an Ivy League team. With two games coming against ranked teams next week, it's pretty imperative that LaSalle wins this one. I think they will. 8* LaSalle

10* Louisville (2:00 ET): To say it was a tumultuous offseason for Louisville just might be the understatement of the decade. Rick Pitino was forced to resign in disgrace amidst scandal that had engulfed the program. So too were multiple assistants. But while the coaching staff may have changed, there is still plenty of talent remaining on the court. New HC David Padgett (just the third L'ville HC since 1971!) inherits a Top 20 team with numerous returning starters back and I have no reason to believe that the Cardinals won't be very good this season. Early on, I think we'll be able to take advantage of some soft lines as the expectation is L'ville might "fall on its face." That's not going to happen though and my read for this opener is that they're severely undervalued. 

This is a deeper L'ville team compared to last year. Just how much they'll miss Pitino's coaching remains to be seen, but my guess is that it's something that's being overstated. Padgett can lean on preseason award winners Deng Adel and Quentin Snyder, both of whom averaged more than 12 PPG last season, not to mention a trio of returning starters - Ray Spalding, V.J. King and Anas Mahmoud. Furthermore, there is a trio of freshman and one key incoming transfer (Dwayne Sutton) that should bolster the depth. Again, this is a very talented team. As long as Padgett can block out the distractions, the Cardinals are going to win plenty of games this year and possibly nap second place (behind Duke) in a loaded ACC.

George Mason (forgot to mention them!) is the first opponent for Padgett and Louisville. The Patriots have already played a game, winning Friday by just two (67-65) over Lafayette. The game was won on a pair of free throws w/ just six seconds left. GMU has some quickness, but will be severely overmatched inside as L'ville has a massive size advantage w/ four players checking in at 6'6" or taller. George Mason's tallest player in the starting lineup is 6'7" (Goanar Mar) and there really isn't any other bigs to speak of beyond him. The Patriots won on Friday in large part to Lafayette shooting only 42.2% from the field. Louisville will shoot much better than that thanks to the advantage down low and that will eventually wear the underdog down. 10* Louisville

8* DePaul (4:00 ET): While virtually all of the South Bend faithful will be paying attention to the football team's huge Top 10 showdown w/ Miami tonight, Notre Dame's basketball team comes into the season ranked #14 in the land. It's a solid starting point, but probably a bit too high in my estimation and it's not like the Fighting Irish have ever been a particularly great road team under HC Mike Brey. Therefore, I'm making the call to take underdog DePaul and the points in this season opener. This will be one of the bigger games of the year for the Blue Demons, who are unveiling their brand new arena in Chicago. For Notre Dame, it's simply "just another game" and not one they'll have much interest in winning by any kind of significant margin. 

DePaul is off a 9-23 SU season, but they have four starters back, at least giving them some much-needed experience. They should be extremely motivated here. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real," said Blue Demons' junior guard Eli Cain. He added "It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal." Furthermore, the Blue Demons haven't beaten Notre Dame in some time. They've lost nine straight times to the Irish, their longest losing skid EVER in the 105 all-time meetings and are just 1-8 ATS in those games. But it will be a stronger DePaul team than per usual taking the court Saturday, one that not only has four returning starters, but also three key transfers. 

Led by senior Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame is thinking Final Four this season. Last year's team only made it to the Round of 32 (eliminated by West Virginia), but the two years before that, they made it all the way to the Elite 8. Again, my view is the Irish are slightly overrated coming into this season. The team was picked to finish third in the rugged ACC (by the media), behind Duke and UNC, but I think it's a VERY thin line between third and seventh in the league and the Irish could finish anywhere in between. They are only 3-8 ATS the L11 times they have been a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, losing five of those games outright. They've also failed to cover in any of their last three games vs. Big East opponents. Take the points here in what should be a close game. 8* DePaul

8* Vanderbilt (9:30 ET): Vandy typically owns one of the more unique homecourt advantages in all of College Basketball and we should see that on display in the season opener against overmatched Austin Peay. The Commodores were a NCAA Tournament team a year ago, their first under HC Bryce Drew, and once again figure to be a factor in the SEC. Don't let the pointspread scare you here as Vandy is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it has had to lay at least 12.5 points at home while Austin Peay is 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've gotten that many. The Commies are also 25-7 SU, 18-10 ATS the L2 years here in Nashville. Austin Peay has a brand new HC (1st time since 1990) and a pretty young roster to boot. They're really "up against it" tonight.

Last year ended in heartbreak for Vandy when Matthew Fisher-Davis inexplicably fouled Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh in a tie game when there were just 14.6 seconds remaining in a 1st round NCAA Tournament matchup. Fisher-Davis was arguably the team's best player LY and he's back for 2017-18, ready to build on a 13.9 PPG scoring average. The All-SEC guard should also have some help up front w/ the triumvirate of Clevon Brown, Djery Baptiste and Ejike Obinna. If even one of those players steps up, it should be a good year for the Commies. Also, there is Jeff Roberson, who is in-arguably the team's best two-way player. 

It's a new era for Austin Peay as Dave Loos is done patrolling the sideline, which he occupied since 1990! Former South Carolina assistant Matt Figger replaces him and has a lot of work to do considering all the newcomers on the roster. Figger also will likely be implementing the defensive system learned under Frank Martin at South Carolina and that's going to take time and there will be growing pains. Especially here as Vandy has a number of holdovers that can shoot the ball, plus two impressive newcomers in Saben Lee and Max Evans. This should turn into a blowout rather quickly. 8* Vanderbilt

8* North Carolina (7:00 ET): Defending Nat'l Champion UNC has to start the season w/o the services of PG Joel Berry II, but still shouldn't have much difficulty here w/ Northern Iowa. Berry is certainly a key loss; he was named Most Outstanding Player in LY's Final Four and it's a completely silly reason why he is out (broke his hand punching a door after reportedly losing a video game!), but nevertheless there's still plenty of talent on hand for the ninth ranked team in the country. It was another strong recruiting class, which will be counted on to replace the top four rebounders from a year ago. Seventh Woods and Jalek Felton will be the ones charged w/ filling Berry's lost production and, if anything, because of that injury the Tar Heels are undervalued for their opener.

Now Northern Iowa is no stranger to pulling upsets. Two years ago, they even beat UNC, but that was at home. Last year was an ugly 85-42 loss in Chapel Hill and while it may not get that bad again this year, clearly the Panthers are outclassed here. Ben Jacobson's team was a disappointing 14-16 SU overall last season and thus they enter 2017-18 w/ reduced expectations compared to previous seasons. Last year's team was also a very poor 10-19-1 ATS at the betting window. While that usually results in a better mark the following year, the fact is the Panthers were just terrible as underdogs a season ago, going 3-10 SU and getting outscored by 17 pts per game. You may want to wait until MVC play begins to start betting this team. 

UNI is picked for second this season in the Missouri Valley as they have four returning starters plus an impressive freshman in Tywhon Pickford. But, still, they should be outclassed here as they'll struggled to keep pace and find success on the boards against what is certainly a taller and more athletic team. Typically, the Panthers are not very good away from Cedar Falls (9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS L2 seasons) and they really struggled to score on the road last year (59.1 PPG). Obviously, that's quite problematic when facing a foe that averaged 84.4 PPG last year, which was among the highest averages in the entire country. Last year's meeting saw UNI shoot only 33.3% from the floor and get to the FT line just eight times. 8* North Carolina

10* Gonzaga (9:20 ET): It has all come down to this. Two #1 seeds, one stored program and the other not so much. Gonzaga let me and the rest of their backers down Saturday, beating South Carolina 77-73 as 6.5-pt dogs. (They had led by as many as 14 in the second half). But the 'Zags will "take it" as they won their first Final Four game ever. North Carolina also survived a close call, winning by just a single point over Oregon and thus not covering. To preserve the victory, they got two offensive rebounds after going 0 for 4 at the free throw line. It was a very lucky win as was the one over Kentucky in the Elite 8. That's two straight wins by two points or less for UNC. Teams favored by two points or less in the National Championship Game have lost four straight times. I'm on Gonzaga here.

Defensive efficiency is such a key metric to me. It's something I've been harping on throughout this tournament. It actually served as a great predictor of South Carolina's surprising run as they rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 1st. North Carolina isn't bad, but they're 16th. They held Oregon to just 37.9% shooting Saturday, which was impressive, not to mention needed as they only shot 36.8% themselves. Outside of Kennedy Meeks, no UNC player had a good offensive game. People will want to predict improvement for this matchup, but I'm not so sure. Gonzaga has held 11 of its last 12 opponents below 42%. Only three teams shot better than 40% during that span. I expect the most efficient defense to assert itself again here and triumph over the UNC offense. 

Despite the non-cover Saturday, Gonzaga is still 23-10 ATS this year. Tonight will mark the first time all season that they have not been favored. I would have them favored here. Yes, much of the focus here will be on UNC atoning for LY's Champ Game loss to Villanova. But this is Gonzaga's year. They have been the best team in the nation virtually the entire year. They will show that tonight and win the school's first ever Championship. Roy Williams and company will have to settle for being bridesmaids a second year in a row. 10* Gonzaga

10* Gonzaga (6:09 ET): Just to show how unlikely a run its has been for South Carolina getting to the Final Four (1st appearance in school history), note that they have been an underdog in all four games in this Tournament. Yes, they were even a slight dog as the higher seed vs. Marquette. Three times they have trailed going into halftime. Sunday, in the Elite 8 against Florida, they faced a seven-point deficit at the break, but were able to overcome that by holding the Gators to 0 for 14 from three-point range after half. Gonzaga also is making its first Final Four appearance in school history, but in their case the trip is long overdue. This has been one of the nation's most successful programs over the last 17 years. A top seed, the Bulldogs are now 23-9 ATS this season. They have been favored in every game. I'll lay the points here as South Carolina's unlikely run ends. 

Gonzaga had no problem w/ 11-seed Xavier in the Elite 8, winning that matchup 83-59 as 8.5-point chalk. I laid the points there as well. Something that continues to get overlooked is the fact that the Zags are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. They held Xavier to just 35.5% shooting. That was the 8th time in the L11 games where they held the opposition below 37% shooting. So, with all the talk likely to be about South Carolina's defense, note Gonzaga's is better. Northwestern is the only tournament opponent of Gonzaga's to score more than 60 points thus far. This is just the fourth team in the last 20 seasons to enter a Final Four w/ a scoring differential better than +20 PPG.

While South Carolina is #2 nationally in defensive efficiency, they are outside the top 100 offensively. For the sake of comparison, Gonzaga is 14th in offensive efficiency. It's been rather shocking to see South Carolina score 70 or more in every Tournament game so far, but here is where I expect their offense to begin to struggle. In the halfcourt, Gonzaga's defense is allowing only .69 points per possession, an astounding number. They've allowed more than 65 points just four times in the L22 games. The 'Zags depth should allow them to avoid "wearing down" in the second half, something we've seen from previous South Carolina opponents. Also, Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over much and that's an area that the Gamecocks have really benefited by forcing 17 TO's per game. South Carolina also is - by far - the weakest of the four remaining teams from behind the arc. For the year, they are connecting on just 33.3% of their three-point attempts. Gonzaga holds its opponents below 30% while hitting 37.8% itself. I think this line is off here far more than it was for the Zags game against Xavier. 10* Gonzaga

10* Under Kentucky/North Carolina (5:05 ET): Lost in all the 5-star recruits and Coach Cal bluster is just how good of a defensive team Kentucky is. Ranked #7 nationally in defensive efficiency, they seen 9 of their previous 10 games stay Under the total. They carry the nation's longest win streak (14 games) into what is certainly the most anticipated Elite 8 matchup, a date with top seed North Carolina in Memphis. The Tar Heels aren't quite as stingy as UK, but can certainly "hold their own" as is evident by their own #20 ranking in defensive efficiency. Both teams average exactly 85.2 PPG for the year and played a very high scoring game in the regular season, a 103-100 win for Kentucky and, no, there was no overtime. Those factors have conspired to make this O/U line a lot higher than it ought to be. Take the Under.

That regular season matchup was played at a frenetic pace. It was 56-51 at halftime. I expect a the tempo to be a lot slower here. Malik Monk scored a UK freshman record 47 points in the regular season win and I don't expect him to come close to that here. Nor is De'Aaron Fox likely to match his 39-point effort from Friday's game against UCLA. The stakes are simply much higher now than they were in Lexington back in December. I don't envision we're going to see both teams shoot 53% from the floor and go a combined 19 of 35 from three-point range. The defensive intensity should be turned up a notch. UK did just hold UCLA to 75 points, which may not sound all that impressive, but the Bruins were the top scoring team in the country and that's 15 PPG below their season average.

North Carolina topped 90 points in its Sweet 16 win over Butler. They also topped 100 in their 1st round victory over 16 seed Texas Southern. But in between, I cashed an Under ticket when they faced Arkansas. Interestingly, of their three Tournament matchups so far, that one was projected to be the highest scoring and ended up being the lowest instead. The Tar Heels have enjoyed a tremendous edge on the board so far in this Tourney (rebounded 43% of its misses!), but that won't exist here. On the flip side, UK hasn't been turning the ball over at all its L3 games, so that should limit UNC opportunities in transition. The Tar Heels are 16-7 Under this season after scoring 80+ pts their previous game while Kentucky has gone Over in nine straight games vs. teams that average 77+ PPG. 10* Under Kentucky/North Carolina

10* Florida (2:20 ET): This line is several points lower than it ought to be and I'm taking full advantage. It always stinks not to be able to cash a winning ticket, but nevertheless I still came away impressed w/ Florida did Friday night. The Gators won what was the "game of the Tournament" thus far, beating Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime on a miraculous three-point shot at the buzzer. How ironic that Wisconsin sent the game to OT on a similar shot. Though it was not a cover for me (had UF -2), being able to win after such a dominant peformance the previous round is pretty impressive. I still put a ton of stock into the Gators' 65-39 dismantling of Virginia in the second round. Meanwhile, I do not believe South Carolina will be able to respond as well from its best Tourney performance to date, a 70-50 beatdown of Baylor in the Sweet 16. Lay the short number here. 

Defensive efficiency is so important this time of year and in that department there is no real edge in this matchup. South Carolina may have been considered a "long shot" to make the Tournament, but they rank 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency, one spot ahead of Florida. It was the 70-50 win over Baylor on Friday that moved them slightly ahead. In that game, the Gamecocks held their opponents to just 30% shooting for the game. That's after holding Duke to 38% in the second half in a stunning second round upset. But Florida is no slouch in this department as they held Virginia to 29.6% shooting. Wisconsin shot 50%, but again, that makes winning all the more impressive for the Gators. But the real key here is a massive gap on the offensive end. Florida ranks 25th in offensive efficiency while South Carolina is 115th, easily the worst among the Elite 8 (no one else lower than 27th).

These teams being SEC rivals, obviously we have regular seasons results to analyze. This will be a rubber match w/ each team having won on its home floor. The Gamecocks won 57-53 in Columbia due Florida going an unfathomable 0 for 17 from three-point range. In Gainesville, the Gators were 9 of 19 from behind the arc and won 81-66. The two games have seen South Carolina only shoot 37 of 107 from the floor (including 7 of 27 from three-point range). Often, I might call for those numbers to improve, but not here. Florida holds its opponents to just 30% shooting from three-point range for the year. The Gators are also 25-3 SU when favored this season, going 19-8-1 ATS. 10* Florida

10* Oregon (8:49 ET): Kansas seems to be the "toast of the town," both literally and figuratively right now. Playing in Kansas City, they are heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four as the top seed in their region. They may want to consider applying for membership in the Big 10 after thrashing both Michigan State and Purdue in their last two games, winning by a combined 52 points. But their Elite 8 opponent, Oregon, just happened to beat the Big 10's hottest team (Michigan) themselves. The Ducks have been able to persevere despite losing big man Chris Boucher to a season-ending ACL injury before the Tournament. It's rare to find them getting this many points (in fact, this will easily be the most they've gotten in any game this season), so I'll leap at the opportunity. Take the points.

The Ducks have been an underdog in only three games all season, twice to UCLA and in an early season game at Baylor. That's a pair of Sweet 16 teams. Kansas is better than both, so it's not shocking to find the Jayhawks favored by more, but I still believe the line is inflated based off KU's last two results. Note that it was only a five-point game vs. Michigan State at the half and the margin stayed the same halfway through the second. Closing the game on a 30-15 run (including 21-6 over the final 7 minutes) certainly skewed perception. Then against Purdue, Bill Self's team trailed most of the first half. Again though, it was a dominant second half performance. I simply refuse to believe the Jayhawks can continue shooting at the current rate (47% on 3's, 60% on 2's!) and I've got to again point out the team has a fortunate 12-3 SU record in games decided by single digits.

Oregon has shot the ball quite well themselves in this Tournament and has an offense capable of matching Kansas. The Ducks turned the ball over just FIVE times against Michigan. Given the Jayhawks have been making a "killing" in transition, if Oregon can take care of the basketball again, they should be in good shape. They are after all 11-3 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77 points or more. And remember they were favored in the bulk of those contests. Defensively, these teams are basically even w/ Kansas 23rd in efficiency and Oregon 24th. The Ducks actually own the better scoring differential, however, at +13.5 compared to "just" +12.1 for KU. All things considered, I would have this spread several points lower and it's probably a good time to fade Kansas coming off a "peak" performance. 10* Oregon

8* Gonzaga (6:05 ET): Xavier has clearly represented a "buy low" situation thus far in the Tournament as they've won all three of their games as an underdog (I was on them all three times!). Most forget that the Musketeers were actually considered a Top 10 in the country early in the season. Injuries, the most notable being the season-ender for Edmond Sumner (knee) threatened to derail the campaign though. A six-game losing skid last month had their NCAA Tourney hopes on "life-support," but Chris Mack's team then responded by winning six of seven while going a perfect 7-0 ATS at the betting window. However, here is where the Cinderella story ends and I jump off the bandwagon. Top seed Gonzaga has survived some close calls thus far, but I believe is primed for their best showing of the Tournament tonight. Lay the points. 

I keep stressing teams' defensive efficiency for a reason. It is typically a great predictor of future success. Even an Elite 8 "longshot" like South Carolina ranks 3rd nationally at that end of the floor. Xavier, however, is 67th. That's easily the lowest ranking of the remaining eight teams. In fact, no one else is lower than 24th! Gonzaga is 1st, which is something that I bet most don't know. They just held West Virginia to an ugly 26.7% shooting for the game in the Sweet 16. That's really impressive even by the Zags' lofty standard. Incredibly, only one of their previous nine opponents has shot better than 41.5% from the floor (BYU, who handed them their one loss). Seven times during that stretch, Mark Few's team has held the opponent below 37% shooting. In the Tournament, they've held teams to 37% shooting on two-point attempts. This is really impressive!

Xavier comes in having shot at least 50% from the floor in all three Tournament games, so clearly something will have to give here. I'm banking on it being the Musketeers' offense obviously. A key reason that I've played Xavier in all three games thus far is that I've felt all of their opponents were overrated in terms of seed. That ceases to be the case here. Another huge key has been Xavier's Tourney opponents shooting only 24% from three-point range despite a rather high volume of attempts. That seems unsustainable. Gonzaga has shot just 29% themselves from behind the arc, but don't let that fool you into thinking this is a great matchup for the underdog. Rather, I believe we'll see some regression to the mean on both sides of that equation. Look for the Zags to make their shots and advance to the school's first ever Final Four in convincing fashion. 8* Gonzaga

8* Florida (9:55 ET): The East region has been thrown into total upheaval with the early exits of the top two seeds, Villanova and Duke. Furthermore, Virginia was considered the "darkhorse" third option and they're gone too. To me, that leaves the team that eliminated the Hoos, Florida, as the new favorite. While all the talk will be about what Wisconsin did to 'Nova, Florida's massive beatdown of Virginia may have been the most impressive win of the entire Tournament to date. They absolutely bludgeoned UVA, 65-39, which I assure you is not a misprint. Yet, they're only a small fave for this Sweet 16 matchup and don't seem to be getting the majority of public support. I don't understand that all and will gladly lay the short number here.

Wisconsin was probably underseeded, something that was quite unfortunate if you're Villanova. The Badgers did have a late season three-game skid including an outright loss in Madison (as 11.5-pt faves) to Iowa. But since the regular season finale, they've turned things around. Their only loss in the L6 games was in the Big 10 Tournament Final to Michigan. The final margin over Va Tech in Rd 1 may have been 10 pts, but that was their largest lead of what was a basically a two possession game the whole way. The Badgers also benefited there from a school record eight three-pointers by Bronson Koenig. Then came the upset of 'Nova. Yes, the Badgers led for a large percentage of that game, but they were also down 57-50 w/ just over five minutes remaining. They very likely will not be as fortunate to shoot as well here as they did vs. Nova (53.1%!) considering the Gators rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. I know Wisconsin "has experience," but they still turned the ball over too much and got into foul trouble the last game.

There are a number of Sweet 16 teams that have been able to overcome key injuries. Count Florida among the list. They lost big man John Egbunu to a season-ending knee injury back in February. They proceeded to go just 3-3 SU their next six games, twice losing to Vanderbilt, but have had little problem in the first two rounds of this Tournament. I had them against East Tennessee State, which was a 15-point win. Then came the brutal beatdown of Virginia. The "impressiveness" of that victory cannot be understated. They held the Hoos below 30% shooting for the game, including 1 of 15 from three-point range. Will they be able to duplicate those numbers here? Unlikely. But if they even come remotely close, they'll advance w/ ease. Remember that Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Speedy guards Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza broke down the vaunted Tony Bennett "Pack Line defense" like it was nothing. Even w/o Egbunu, the Gators have four players that can lead the team in scoring and both Devin Robinson and Justin Leon had double doubles (21 total rebounds) against UVA. 8* Florida

10* Kentucky (9:35 ET): Though I didn't expect it to be by much, I have to say that I'm pretty shocked Kentucky isn't favored here. They are after all - Kentucky - and the higher seed. If the line holds, or even goes up for some reason, then it will be just the second time this season that the Wildcats close as the dog. The first was admittedly not a pleasant experience as they lost at Florida by 22. But the Gators may very well end up being a Final Four team. UCLA is a group that I tabbed as overrated long ago. Sure, the Bruins proved me wrong by covering against Cincinnati, but they actually trailed at the half in that game. Their struggle to put away Kent State in the first round also should be a red flag. Simply put, the Bruins 77th place ranking in defensive efficiency (lowest among 16 remaining teams) is bound to eventually catch up with them and I think Friday is the time and place. 

As was expected, UK got a scare in Round 2 from a severely underseeded Wichita State team. I took the points w/ the Shockers (and covered!), but that play wasn't due to a lack of respect for what Coach Cal's team is capable of doing. Rather, I respected WSU that much. UK might be the youngest team left in the field, but they now also boast the longest active win streak in the country at 13 games. They've been able to advance despite their best player Malik Monk not shooting all that well. Imagine if he turns it around. Unlike the matchup vs. Wichita State, UK has a significant edge on the defensive end here as they rank 8th in efficiency. This is also a revenge spot for a five-point loss in Lexington back in December. That day, UCLA was able to score 97 points (shot 53.0%) in an outright upset as 10.5-pt dogs. I do not see history repeating itself here and it sure seems as if there's been a massive overadjustment w/ the line. Kentucky has not lost a neutral site game all year (9-0 SU).

As mentioned above, UCLA trailed Cincinnati at the break on Sunday night. It may not have been a significant deficit, but they certainly struggled against an athletic and long defense. Kentucky is both longer and more athletic than Cincinnati. Thus, I believe we're more likely to see something resembling the Bruins team we saw in the 1st Half vs. Cincy than the 2nd (when they scored 49). On the defensive end, there has been much discussion about an alleged "improvement" down the stretch by UCLA. I just don't see it. They gave up 80 pts to Kent State. Unlike the Bruins first two Tournament opponents, Kentucky has an offense capable of "keeping up." (they average 85.2 PPG). Look for the 2-seed to advance in this one. 10* Kentucky

10* Xavier (10:05 ET): The Musketeers have treated me quite well so far in this Tournament. I've been on them in both games. First, they knocked off overrated Maryland 76-65 as a two-point dog. Then came one of the most impressive performances of the entire tournament as they whipped Florida State 91-66 as 7.5-pt dogs. That was their sixth consecutive cover as it's become pretty apparant this team was undervalued in the wake of the Edmond Sumner injury. But like Oregon w/o Chris Boucher, they are making "due." Sure, there was a six-game losing streak towards the end of the regular season, but they've clearly righted the ship. Arizona is a team that's also been covering of late (5-0-1 ATS L6), but I feel they're drastically overrated. Take the points.

In the interest of full disclosure, I went against Arizona against St. Mary's. Though that play was ultimately unsuccessful (Wildcats won 69-60 as five-point chalk), note that they were NOT "in the money" most of the way. In fact, they got behind big early, trailing 24-14. But credit them for catching fire in the second half where they shot 59.1% from the floor. But such a come from behind effort cannot be counted on regularly. Granted, 'Zona is 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. But, defensively, I believe them to be the INFERIOR foe in this matchup. Yes, they held St. Mary's to only 60 points, but that has as much to do w/ the Gaels' slow tempo as anything else. Prior to that win, the Wildcats had allowd 75+ pts in five of six games. Meanwhile, Xavier has held five of its last six opponents to 65 pts or less.

What the Musketeers did to Florida State last Saturday was really impressive. The Seminoles were the tallest team in the field, yet Xavier actually outrebounded them and was able to shoot 55% from the field. There was also a massive discrepancy from behind the arc as Xavier was 11 of 17 while FSU was only 4 of 21. That is unlikely to be repeated, but I don't think it has to be for the Musketeers to pull off yet another upset. Their zone really confused the 'Noles and I'd be shocked if we didn't see it again here. Also, Xavier did a great job at taking care of the basketball last game, turning it over just nine times. I don't have Arizona rated that much higher than FSU, so this line looks to be a real "steal." Arizona has shot 53.5% from the field its last five games. That's due to regress, right? 10* Xavier

10* Purdue (9:39 ET): It seems as if Kansas is getting a lot of "love" as the potential favorite to cut the nets down next week. I'm not buying it. I felt the Jayhawks were - clearly - the weakest of the four #1 seeds coming into the Tournament. Yes, it was another Big 12 regular season crown for Bill Self, but his team wasn't as dominant as per usual. They were quite fortunate to go 12-3 SU in games decided by single digits in the regular season. Sure, they've rolled in the first two tournament games, but beating Cal Davis by 38 meant next to nothing and second round Michigan State was highly overrated (certainly not one of Tom Izzo's best teams). Meanwhile, despite being Big 10 regular season champs, Purdue doesn't seem to be getting a lot of credit here. Take the points.

The fourth seeded Boilermakers, like Kansas, were "one and done" in their conference tournament. But unlike Kansas (who lost to TCU), Purdue at least had the "excuse" of running into a quality team as they fell to Michigan and let's not forget that was an overtime game as well. In fact, the Wolverines are the ONLY team to beat Purdue since the start of February (did it twice). Let's note that the Big 10 as a whole seems to undergoing a critical re-evaluation in this Tournament as they've placed a total of three teams in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin has already upset Villanova while Michigan beat Louisville. There's no reason not to think that Purdue can't do the same to Kansas here. Getting this many points, I believe they are a simply tremendous value. It's pretty rare to find them getting points (only happened three times previously this year.

Purdue's 1st round game saw them beat Vermont 80-70. They shot the ball very well against the Catamounts, making nearly 52% of their attempts. Remember that Vermont was a team that came in riding the nation's longest win streak (21 games). The final score of Purdue's 2nd round matchup vs. Iowa State (80-76) was a little misleading in the sense that they led by as many as 19 in the second half. That's an Iowa State team that did beat Kansas during the regular season. Interestingly, Purdue also swept the Michigan State team that Kansas just beat. Look for the Boilermakers' size to be an issue for the Jayhawks and I simply don't believe that Josh Jackson can continue this hot run he's been on. Purdue actually has a better scoring differential than Kansas over the course of the year and is higher ranked in defensive efficiency. 10* Purdue

10* Under Michigan/Oregon (7:05 ET): They might be a 7-seed, but Michigan is as hot as any team in the country right now. The Wolverines won the Big 10 Tournament (including a win over top-seed Purdue) and probably have as impressive a two wins as any team in the Sweet 16. They first beat Oklahoma State 92-91 (fell victim to a backdoor cover), then upset 2-seed Louisville 73-69 as a three-point dog. Despite being the lower seed here, the Maize and Blue are actually slight favorites, probably based on the premise that this is the "hot" team right now. Certainly they've been hot from an Over bettors' perspective as well (9-2 Over L11) as has Thursday's opponent, Oregon. The Ducks have gone Over in eight of their last nine, including both Tournament Games. But looking at this number, the O/U line simply seems too high. Take the Under. 

Oregon had little trouble w/ Iona in Rd 1, beating them 93-77. But Rhode Island proved to be a far greater challenge on Sunday. The Ducks had to rally from an eight-point halftime deficit and didn't secure the game until a three-pointer in the final minute from Tyler Dorsey, who finished the game 9 of 10 from the field including four three-pointers. Rhode Island was actually the team that shot better for the game, but Oregon was far more efficient from three-point range. The fact that the Ducks have been able to advance this far w/o Center Chris Boucher is pretty impressive. But will Boucher's absence finally catch up w/ them against Michigan, who is easily the best team the Ducks have faced in the Tourney?

Both teams can obviously score as is evident by the fact they each topped 90 pts in their respective first round matchups. But scoring for both dropped pretty significantly in Round 2. Each defense is somewhat underrated as Michigan only gives up an average of 66.3 points per game while Oregon is slightly stingier, allowing just 65.6 PPG. Neither team's total PPG average exceeds what the O/U line is here, which is certainly notable. As hot as Michigan has been, they cannot possibly continue to shoot this well. They've gone 32 of 36 on uncontested shots, which is pretty ridiculous. Even wide open, you'd expect college players to miss more than 10% of the time. They have made 39% of all three-point attempts the L6 games, including 47.8% in the NCAA Tournament, percentages which should start to come down. Oregon is holding teams to just 31.3% shooting from behind the arc this year. This is one of the highest totals of the year for any Michigan game. 10* Under Michigan/Oregon

10* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Coastal Carolina moved from the Big South to the Sun Belt this season and experienced what has to be considered a moderate amt of success given the step up in class. While finishing in a three-way tie for sixth place hardly sounds impressive on the surface, note that all of one game separated third from eighth place. A tough draw resulted in the Chanticleers running into top seed UT Arlington in the SBC Tourney and they lost there 71-54. But they've since taken full advantage of the "postseason experience" by winning their first two CBI games by comfortable margins. First, they took out Hampton 83-67 as nine-point chalk. Then it was Loyola MD, 72-63 as five-point faves on Monday. At home again, I feel that this team is being severely undervalued against IL-Chicago in this semifinal matchup. Lay the points.

IL-Chicago is the poster child for the excess of the College postseason. The Flames have a losing record overall and were just 7-11 SU in the Horizon League. As the nation's youngest team, I can see why they'd accept this invite though. They've made the most of it as well, including an upset of George Washington (as six-point dogs) on Monday. Their first CBI game was a close one, however, as they squeaked by Stony Brook by just two points (Sea Wolves shot just 34.1%). This will be UIC's first road game of the tournament though and I think that spells the end for them. They give up 81.4 PPG away from home and it's been more than a month since they won a true "roadie." Their regular season finale at Wright State resulted in an ugly 38-point loss. 

Clearly, the oddsmakers were off in installing UIC as six-point home dogs against GW Monday. The Flames led the whole way, much of the time by double digits. But playing on the road is a whole different animal. While they did win a total of four conference road games, note that two came in overtime. Not surprisingly, the two regulations wins were games where their defense actually showed up. They allowed just 54 pts to Cleveland State on 1.12 and 69 to Detroit on 2.17. But in the other seven Horizon League road games, they gave up a MINIMUM of 82 pts. That's bad news facing a Coastal Carolina team that averages a healthy number here in Conway. But perhaps more important is the fact the Chanticleers hold their opponents to just 38.5% shooting here at home. 10* Coastal Carolina

10* Cincinnati (9:40 ET): I faded UCLA in their 1st round matchup against Kent State and despite being the vastly superior unit there, the Bruins still could not cover the spread. Granted, they came close (won 97-80 as 18.5-pt chalk), but I feel that the final score was pretty misleading. Kent State didn't even play well (started the game 1 for 11 from the field), yet was within four early in the second half. Were it not for an early 16-2 lead, one has to wonder how UCLA would be viewed right now. They did shoot a blistering 62.7% from the floor Friday night, but that number will be almost impossible to repeat here against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 11th nationally in efficiency. Meanwhile, it's rather frightening that UCLA allowed Kent State to score 80 pts, but then again their defense has been suspect all season. Unlike against Kent State, UCLA simply won't be able to overwhelm by sheer talent here. Take the points.

Of all the remaining teams in the field, UCLA is clearly the worst defensively. Well, one could make a case for Arkansas, but the bottom line is that the Bruins rank 83rd in efficiency and give up 77.6 PPG outside of Westwood. They rely on the nation's top scoring offense, but will be "up against it here" against a Cincy squad which allows just 60.8 PPG. Making matters more challenging for the Bruins is that Lonzo Ball injured himself Friday on a hard fall. He'll play, but he clearly wasn't 100% down the stretch against Kent State. Also, Ike Anigbogu is still battling a foot injury which kept him out of the Kent State game entirely. He's expected to return tonight, but he too won't be 100%. Again, UCLA is not going to enjoy the hot shooting they had on Friday.

Let's take a moment to recognize what HC Mick Cronin has been able to do here at Cincinnati. The Bearcats have been able to win an average of 25 games over the L7 seasons and entered this year's tournament at 29-5 SU, just one game back of UCLA in the loss column. They had little difficulty dispatching a gritty Kansas State team Friday, winning and covering that game 75-61 as three-point chalk. Incredibly, they shot just as well as UCLA did against Kent State! But they also held the Wildcats to just 38.9% shooting. They also enjoyed significant edges in points in the paint and rebounding. The Bearcats are 4th nationally in scoring defense and thus probably the stingiest team UCLA will have faced all season long. Note that UCLA is 3-8 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. 10* Cincinnati

8* Baylor (7:45 ET): USC is, without question, the worst remaining team in the field. In fact, I'd argue that they were the weakest at-large team to make the Tournament. Yes, I know Trojans fans, they've "gotten this far," but it's been a pretty shaky road for Andy Enfield's team in having to overcome double digit deficits against both Providence and SMU. Now playing their third game in five days (remember they had to win a 'Play In Game') what can they possibly have left in the tank? Baylor isn't getting much respect here due to past Tournament failures, but is the vastly superior team here and should have no problem winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. Lay the points. 

Baylor won its first round game 91-73 over New Mexico State and covered as 11-pt chalk. It was a somewhat shaky first half (actually trailed at the break!), but the Bears completely dominated the 2H, holding the Aggies to 37 percent shooting. USC is probably more adept at dealing w/ Baylor's size and length, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to overcome it. In fact, I expect Baylor to completely dominate the glass in this matchup as the Trojans are not a good defensive rebounding team. Baylor is also the far better team on the defensive end as they rank 10th in efficiency compared to just 86th for USC. The Bears allow roughly 10 PPG fewer over the course of the season. 

I still can't get it out of my head how lucky USC is to be here. They trailed Providence by 17 early in the second half. They trailed SMU by as many as 12. The team's record is games decided by five points or less is now a somewhat improbable 9-3 SU. In terms of luck rating, they rate among the eight most fortunate teams in the country in terms of expected vs. actual victories. Despite being 26-9 SU on the season, at no point this year have I even considered this to be on of the top 25 teams in America. In fact, in Pac 12 play, they finished just sixth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency and that was not a deep league. What happened was they really took care of business when favored (21-2 SU), but they're still only 4-7 SU as a dog this year, getting outscored by 8.7 PPG. 8* Baylor

10* Under Arkansas/North Carolina (6:10 ET): This shapes up as the most lopsided second round matchup, at least according to the oddsmakers, who have installed top seed North Carolina as a DD favorite. That's probably deserved, but I don't dare lay that number even after watching the Tar Heels win by 39 in Round 1. Arkansas clearly benefited from the much-debated "flagrant foul" call at the end of their game w/ Seton Hall as they won 77-71 as a 1-pt dog (they opened as slight fave). But the Hogs could very well be game here. Therefore, we turn to the total. Both teams average a ton of points per game, but this is a really high O/U line and as a result, I'm going Under. Neither team sees it's total # of PPG exceed the O/U line we have to work w/ here. 

The regular season saw Arkansas threaten Kentucky for honors as the top offense in the SEC. They come in ranked 26th in offensive efficiency nationally (Kentucky is 14th) and average a healthy 79.7 points per game. In the 1st round matchup vs. Seton Hall, the Razorbacks shot the ball okay and nearly hit their season average. But a key to this matchup is that they don't really play as "fast" as some think. In terms of tempo, they barely make the top 100 in the country. Defensively, they've actually been able to hold four of their previous five opponents under 39% shooting. The only exception was Kentucky. In terms of the number, the Under was 5-2 in the reg season for Arkansas when the O/U line was between 160 and 169.5. 

Similarly, North Carolina didn't regularly see O/U lines this high either. The fact that they topped 100 points against overmatched TX Southern in Round 1 only serves to help inflate the number here. Now the Tar Heels are one of the top scoring teams in the country (85.4 PPG), but they too have been playing quality defense of late. Four of their previous six opponents have not shot the ball better than 40 percent from the field. There's been a bit of an issue guarding the three-point line outside of Chapel Hill, but Arkansas comes in averaging just five three-point makes per game in road/neutral site games. Though Joel Berry II is expected to play here, the UNC forward did not practice as a result of an ankle injury. The Tar Heels offense will not be the same w/o him at 100%. 10* Under Arkansas/North Carolina

8* Wichita State (2:40 ET): It's pretty much been accepted that Wichita State was drastically underseeded. Some metrics consider the Shockers to be among the top ten teams in the COUNTRY, so it's clearly laughable that they were seeded 10th. Round 1 saw them favored by a record amount as a lower seed, but it was by no means easy against Dayton. They won 64-58, but did so despite some terrible first half shooting, which included 2 for 12 from the three-point line (10 of 28 overall). However, they were able to turn the tables in the 2H, holding Dayton to just 8 of 29 shooting. I feel the fact that they were able to advance despite not playing well is a GOOD sign. The Shockers being underseeded is not good news for Kentucky and remember this is a revenge spot for a couple of years ago when UK was drastically underseeded and "upset" a top-seeded Wichita State team. Take the points.

Kentucky had little difficulty ousting Northern Kentucky Friday, winning that 2 vs. 15 matchup 79-70. However, they came nowhere close to covering the 20-point spread. Like Wichita State, they too had a bad shooting night from three-point range (3 of 17), but were able to overwhelm the Norse w/ their size and De'Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe finished a combined 15 of 25 in the paint. But things won't come that easy vs. the Shockers, nor will the Wildcats be able to dominate the glass as they are accustomed to doing. UK has hurt itself this season (at least at the betting window) by getting off to slow starts. Interestingly, that was not the case against Northern Kentucky. Instead, it was a poor second half that kept the game closer than it should have been. Bottom line is that I'm troubled by the Wildcats' seeming inability to put together a "complete" 40-minute performance. It will cost them here.

Wichita State is outscoring team by 19.2 PPG this year. Obviously, that number must be taken with some "grain of salt" considering the Missouri Valley isn't very deep, but even so, their adjusted MOV is still second best in the country. Also, this will be the 1st time all season that the Shockers will be getting points. Great value! I look for them to turn this into a half-court type game and if they can hold UK to a shooting percentage anywhere near what they held Dayton to (31 percent) or if the Wildcats shoot like they did vs. Northern Kentucky, then this one will be an outright win for the dog. I have the two teams rated basically dead even, so take the points. 8* Wichita State

10* St. Mary's (7:45 ET): In terms of the books' handle, this is shaping up to be the most lopsided game on the board today. That's just fine by me as I was banking on St. Mary's being underrated anyway. These teams are a lot more even than most realize and I actually have the Gaels rated higher (despite being a 7-seed while Arizona is a 2). So, naturally, I'll take the points. Both teams rolled to easy 1st round wins. St. Mary's obviously did so against a tougher opponent, VCU, whom they beat 85-77 and really it wasn't that close. Meanwhile, Arizona rolled to 100 points against overmatched North Dakota. The fact that the Wildcats hit triple digits only further adds to them being overvalued in this spot. People want to focus on the fact that St. Mary's was 0-3 vs. Gonzaga this year, but their statistical profile is excellent and the country is about to find out just how good this team really is.

St. Mary's shot 63% from the field in the first half vs. VCU. That's obviously impressive, but even more so when you consider the Rams were holding foes to just 42% for the season. Hot shooting is nothing new for the Gaels, who have been at 55% or better four of the last five games. For the season, they are shooting at a 49.6% clip overall, which is 8th best nationally. Oh, by the way, they are also second in the country in points allowed at 57.1 per game! Clearly, holiding Arizona in check will be a tough test, but I feel the Gaels will be up to it. Remember that Gonzaga beat Arizona as well, in Tucson no less. So SMC's 0-3 SU/ATS record vs. the Zags isn't a huge concern for me here. They've lost only one other time this season and that was back in December to an underrated UT-Arlington team. Against VCU, the Gaels took the lead for good midway through the first half and led by 15 at the break.

Meanwhile, I think there's little takeaway from what Arizona did to North Dakota on Thursday. UND was clearly no match. But the fact the Wildcats scored 100 pts is likely to gain favor with the public. Again, that's just fine by me. Despite an impressive record away from home, I've had Arizona as one of my most overrated teams for much of the season. Note that they have allowed 75+ points in six of their last seven games, including four straight. They are 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts (North Dakota scored 82, which is kind of alarming). Arizona has had the good fortune of going 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. That good fortune will end here, however, as the underdog is the far better defensive team plus owns one of the top rebounding margins in the country. 10* St. Mary's

8* Butler (7:10 ET): I get the fervor surrounding Middle Tennessee right now. For the second year in a row, the Blue Raiders ousted a Big 10 team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Last year was a bonafide stunner as they beat Michigan State as a 15-seed. This year, they really didn't catch anyone by surprise as - despite being a 12-seed - they were actually favored against Minnesota Thursday. With a better team than last year, the expectation is now that MTSU will make it farther in the Big Dance. But, not so fast. Butler is a team that likes to play at a methodical pace and I think their performance Thursday against Winthrop was pretty underrated. They led the entire way in a 76-64 win and cover as 10.5-pt chalk. That improved them to 9-0 SU all-time in the Tournament when facing a lower seed. I'll lay the short number here.

I mentioned earlier that Middle Tennessee was actually favored in its first round game vs. Minnesota. That was one of the few poor jobs by the selection committee in terms of seeding (Wichita St as a 10-seed was the other). There's simply no way that Minnesota deserved to be a 5-seed. Still, you need to tip your cap to the Blue Raiders for winning their 11th straight game. They've also covered five in a row dating back to the regular season finale. But tonight marks their toughest test in a LONG time. You'd have to go all the way back to a December 17th matchup vs. VCU to find the last time MTSU was a dog. I'll argue that Butler is - easily - their toughest opponent to date. The Big East is obviously a much tougher league than Conference USA. And if you want to retort that so is the Big 10, I'll agree, but the Big 10 (Minnesota) isn't as strong as the Big East and quite frankly is pretty overrated.

Over its last five games, Middle Tennessee has averaged 85 points per game, which is well above their season average of 75.2. I'll call for some severe regression to the mean tonight thanks to Butler's propensity to slow down the pace. Something else to consider is that Butler owned by far and away the lowest turnover rate in the Big East. Rarely do they make mistakes. Avery Woodson has committed only 10 TO's - all season! Despite now coming off the bench, Kelan Martin is the Bulldogs' best player and leading scorer. The team's one weakness - rebounding - should not be an issue here against the smallish Blue Raiders. 8* Butler

8* Xavier (6:10 ET): I played both of these teams on Thursday. The fact that I won w/ Xavier and lost w/ Florida State isn't the only reason I'm taking the points with the Musketeers here. I was really disappointed by the way FSU failed to take advantage of its size against Florida Gulf Coast. Truth be told, the 'Noles played pretty poorly down the stretch and were fortunate that FGCU didn't shoot the ball well. Speaking of shooting, I don't see FSU repeating its own 55.6% performance from the field here against a Xavier team that has held four of its last five opponents to 42.9% or below. While they were a perfect 18-0 SU in Talahassee this year, the Seminoles are just 8-8 SU otherwise while being outscored. This number is now too high. Take the points.

Without Edmond Sumner, Xavier wasn't even expected to be here. There was a stretch in the regular season where they lost six in a row (also went 0-6 ATS). But they've quickly rectified that w/ five consecutive covers, the only loss during that stretch coming by three at Creighton. The Musketeers looked quite good on Thursday against Maryland. Really, I wouldn't even call that an upset as I said the "better team was getting points" in my analysis and that held true. Key here is Xavier's zone defense. Maryland really struggled shooting against it (26% from three-point range) and it's not as if Florida State is prolific from behind the arc. In fact, they were an awful 2 of 13 against FGCU.

Where Florida State dominated on Thursday was in the paint, which was to be expected. They shot 22 of 28 there and that's why they won. Still, they only won by six against a 14-seed despite shooting 55% from the floor. That's alarming. So is the team's free throw shooting. They missed 15 of 39 attempts from the charity stripe against FGCU. I don't see them getting that many attempts again here and the percentage of makes has been a problem all season (63.4% on the road!). Another issue Thursday was the 'Noles turned it over 16 times. Xavier may have gotten more than a point from only six players Thursday, but two were off the bench and they still have Trevon Blueitt, who didn't even play particularly well in the 1st half. While playing Orlando is theoretically an edge for FSU, Xavier has actually won seven straight times in the city! 8* Xavier

10* West Virginia (12:10 ET): Given that I couldn't possibly make the case that Notre Dame is a better team than WVU, this number would seem to be incredibly short. I played against the Fighting Irish Thursday (successfully) and I think it's certainly notable that they only won by 2 despite Princeton shooting just 38.6% overall including 8 of 31 from three-point range. As I noted in my analysis for that game, despite B2B Elite 8 runs, Irish HC Mike Brey has the worst Tournament ATS record (now 5-12) among his peers. The physical advantages that ND had against Princeton certainly won't be present here against "Press Virginia," who had a relatively easy time w/ Bucknell in Rd. 1. I've said it all year - the Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the country. They'll show that here. Lay the points. 

Known for its pressure 'D', West Virginia only forced 13 turnovers in their 86-80 win over Bucknell. That's well below their nation-leading 20.3 per game average. This would appear to be a "strength on strength" matchup as ND happens to own the lowest turnover rate in the country. So who blinks? I'm banking on it being the Irish. First off, if WVU can score 86 pts in a game where they forced fewer TO's than per usual, imagine what they can do if they turn the trademark pressure up. When applying the press, WVU held Bucknell under a point per possession Thursday. Offensive rebounding is something that will be critical here for the Mountaineers as well. 

Outside of South Bend, Notre Dame outscored its opponents by less than one point per game. WVU was at +7.4 PPG. In the adjusted scoring margin metric, the Mountaineers rank 4th in the entire country. But again, turnovers - or lack of them - will likely decide this game. WVU forces one on roughly 24% of all opponents' possessions w/ Jevon Carter leading the country w/ 89 steals. Again, Notre Dame may have the lowest TO margin in the country. But they've yet to face pressure quite like this. Then there is the issue of rebounding. WVU dominates the offensive glass. Notre Dame will struggle with this. In the regular season, the Fighting Irish ranked 12th in the ACC in defensive rebound percentage. That's not good. Love Bob Huggins' crew in this matchup. 10* West Virginia

8* Kent State (9:55 ET): What an incredible run this Kent State team is on. Not only have they won 9 of 10 (only loss to Akron), but they just beat the top three teams in the MAC (including top seed Akron) in three consecutive nights to get here. There is no doubt that they've been winning close. Their largest MOV during the streak was 10 points and that came in a wild overtime game (against Central Michigan) where they had to rally back from a 13-point halftime deficit at home! Six of the nine wins have been by five points or less. Still, I look for them to keep this game close against overrated UCLA. The spread is pretty huge here. It's the largest of any of the 3 vs. 14 matchups, in fact. Because of Lonzo Ball, the Bruins have become a stock that's far too overvalued coming into this Tournament. Take the points.

UCLA had won 10 in a row before losing to Arizona in the semifinals of the Pac 12 Tournament last Friday. They've lost only four games all season and have the top scoring offense in the entire country (3rd in efficiency). That all being said, there are question marks. We've seen teams w/ the most "NBA ready" prospect flame out before. Plus, rumors of HC Steve Alford leaving for the Indiana job do the team no favors whatsoever. Alford was asked about it - a lot - yesterday and this could be a major distraction. On the court, I worry about the Bruins' defense, or rather lack of it. They are 75th in defensive efficiency, which is obviously not good. I think that prevents them from building any kind of significant lead here. Speaking to the market being too high on UCLA, they are 0-3 ATS their L3 games. 

After pulling off so many close wins, I see Kent State's destiny as likely being a close loss here. The team is 9-4 ATS as a dog coming into tonight. That's with EIGHT outright upsets. There's no denying that this will be the toughest opponent that Kent State has faced all season. But I believe they'll be able to score plenty. They come in averaging 76.9 PPG and given UCLA's poor defense, I can see them exceeding that average here. Not only that, but UCLA isn't exactly 100% healthy right now. Ball is dealing w/ a sprained thumb. Forward Ike Anigbogu injured his foot in practice earlier this week and may not play. TJ Leaf is also dealing with an ankle. After a day where we saw virtually no upsets, expect this one to be a lot closer than the experts think! 8* Kent State

10* Over Michigan St/Miami FL (9:20 ET): This is the lowest total on the board for Friday by a somewhat significant margin. Given that Miami has gone Under in six straight games, perhaps that should not be too surprising. (Michigan St has gone Under three straight times as well). But I feel the respective Under streaks have created a situation where the O/U line is simply too low. At the end of February, MSU posted B2B games of 80+ points. Miami, which went cold down the stretch, is due to improve offensively and this is not the usual well-rounded team that Tom Izzo is bringing to the Big Dance. The Canes should be able to score on Sparty. Looking through recent O/U lines - on both sides - it's pretty clear that this is a really low number for both. Take the Over.

There's a very good chance that this closes as the lowest total for any Michigan State game this season. There have been just two times all season where they've seen an O/U line that was sub-130. Both games - vs. Wisconsin and Rutgers - went Over and did so easily. In fact, the Spartans ended up turning in two of their better offensive performances of the entire season in those games! Now, they were NOT at their offensive best in a Big 10 Tourney loss to Minnesota last Friday (shot just 32.8% including 6 of 30 from 3-pt range). But that was their second game in as many days and I have them bouncing back from that season worst performance. This is a team that shoots 46.8% for the year and averages 71.7 PPG. The Over is 10-4 this season when they're a dog plus 11-3 the L14 times they've seen a total in the 120 to 129.5 pt range. 

Likewise, Miami did not shoot the ball well down the stretch. Over the L5 games, they averaged just 57.6 points per game on 40.2% shooting. That's pretty awful. But note they are averaging 69.4 PPG on 45.3% shooting for the year. So, like Michigan State, we should see some regression to the mean here. There is no denying that the Hurricanes have been an Under team this year (20-8 in all games!), but this number is also way low from their perspective. In fact, there's been only one total lower all season and that came against Virginia, who is the top defensive team in the country. Looking through the season to date, you see a lot of totals in the high 130's and 140's. There's value here. I look for both offenses to improve here from their late season swoons. 10* Over Michigan St/Miami FL

10* Creighton (4:30 ET): The market sure seems like it's not a fan of the Blue Jays here. I can think of two reasons why that is. The first is they lost starting PG Mo Watson to a season ending injury. But that happened some time ago (back in January) and they've been able to manage relatively fine. In fact, they just made it to the Big East Final against Villanova and beat a couple of NCAA Tourney teams (Xavier, Providence) along the way. The second has to do with their opponent. Rhode Island is fresh off winning the A-10 Tournament, which took them off the bubble and guaranteed a spot in this event. But there's certainly a bit of "recency bias" involved in the public backing the Rams so strongly here. I'll fade the line move and go w/ what I feel has been the better team all season.

Creighton was a Top 10 team earlier this season, so this certainly appears to be a "buy low" situation. Granted, their offensive efficiency has dipped some w/o Watson. But they still rank 31st nationally in that department. They were 18-1 SU prior to the Watson injury, but just 7-8 SU since. But I view this situation as similar to the one we saw w/ Xavier (who I played!) yday. The wins over Xavier and Providence in the Big East Tourney show that the Blue Jays seem to have adjusted to life post-Watson. Besides, the team likely has a new star on the horizon in the form of 7' freshman center Justin Patton, who made 70% of his FG attempts in the Big East Tourney including a dominant 10 of 13 effort against Xavier. There are also eight different players in the rotation that shoot at least 34 percent from three-point range. 

While Creighton is somewhat far removed from its top 10 ranking, there is no denying that Rhode Island is currently at its peak for the season. The Rams have won eight straight. But before the A-10 Tournament began, there was some question over whether or not this team would even make the field of 68. I'd preach caution in how much stock you put into LW's run. They only had to beat one NCAA Tournament team (VCU) as they were the beneficiaries of top seed Dayton getting upset by Davidson. In fact, VCU is the only Tourney team URI has beaten during this eight-game run of theirs and VCU had nothing to play for in Sunday's final. The Rams lost to Fordham, at home, last month. I should also point out that the Big East is simply a much stronger league than the A-10. To me, this one is "all about value" as I feel the Rams (now favored) are being viewed in far too favorable terms. 10* Creighton

8* Florida State (9:20 ET): Florida Gulf Coast is another of those trendy upset picks for Thursday. I can only assume that has a lot to do w/ the famous "Dunk City" run that the program had (as a 15-seed) back in 2013. But the problem is that no one is left from that team, including the coach (Andy Enfield now at USC). While this team did run through the Atlantic Sun w/ relative ease, I think they're being overvalued here. Florida State is getting little respect despite a second place finish in the ACC and a massive size advantage. In fact, the Seminoles are the tallest team in the entire field. That height advantage should prove critical here as unless FGCU gets red-hot from distance, they're going to be "one and done" on a lot of possessions. Lay the points. 

Typically, the way an upset unfolds this time of year is that the underdog gets hot from three-point range. Well, unfortunately for FGCU, they shoot just 28% from three-point range. Therefore, they tend to shoot a lot of two-pointers. Problem there is that Florida State is as good at defending two-point field goal attempts as any team in the country. They're also good at forcing turnovers. The vast majority of the FGCU offense goes through 6'2" PG Brandon Goodwin. A player of that size creating his own offense against the 'Noles seems unlikely. Outside of Goodwin, the Eagles just don't have a ton of offensive threats. To summarize, it will be much more difficult to score against the Noles than you're average Atlantic Sun team. I see FGCU not even coming close to their 79.2 PPG average. 

The talent level on Florida State is quite underrated. Likely NBA lottery pick Jonathan Isaac and 7'1" senior Michael Ojo should dominate the interior tonight. Then there is Dwayne Bacon, who might be one of the most talented players in the entire tournament. His three-point shooting has improved tremendously this year. There are only nine teams in the country that rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and the Seminoles are one of them. Despite a mediocre finish (4-4 SU L8 games), this is clearly Leonard Hamilton's best team ever in Talahassee. Their last two losses were both by five or less to the two ACC Tourney Finalists, Duke and Notre Dame. I'm not worried about that. Too much talent for FGCU, who will not be making any kind of run in this year's Tournament. 8* Florida State