10* Xavier (6:50 ET): For awhile there, it almost looked as if Xavier might play their way OUT of the NCAA Tournament. An ill-timed six-game losing skid likely did them no favors in the eyes of the committee, but there's nothing that a couple of games against Big East doormat DePaul can't cure. The Musketeers won both of those games and then pulled an upset of Butler in the Conference Tourney, so here they are. Meanwhile, Maryland is a team that the numbers have not liked for most of this season and neither have I. Their 24-8 SU overall record is largely owed to a rather fortuitous record in close games. But the Terps started to fade down the stretch, covering only one of their last six games and they were bounced from the Big 10 Tourney by Northwestern in their first game. As you can see, this game isn't being priced like your "normal" 6 vs. 11 matchup and rightfully so. I'll call for Xavier to pull the minor "upset" as the better team is getting points.

The Xavier losing streak I spoke of earlier happened to coincide w/ losing Edmond Sumner for the year. They actually won their first three games w/o him, but then came the six losses in a row. Still, beating Butler and playing Creighton tough in the Big East Tourney showed me that this team will no quietly. They still rebound the ball tremendously - at both ends of the court. They also still have Trevon Blueitt, who averages 18.0 points per game. In the loss to Creighton last Friday, Xavier actually led 37-31 at the half. They lost on a last second three-pointer. But being able to almost win despite Creighton shooting 54.7% from the field (13 of 20 from 3-pt range!) should tell you something. I seriously doubt that Maryland can match those kind of numbers.

Maryland was great when priced as the underdog this season, going 10-1-1 ATS. But they were just 7-11 ATS as favorites. Granted, they are the slimmest of chalk here, but the trends are still worth noting. Melo Trimble carries the Terps, who are dealing w/ a key injury of their own, that being the season-ending ankle injury suffered by Michal Cekovsky. The Terps lost four times by eight or more points down the stretch and in three of those games they were the favorite. It's hard to like a team that turns the ball over as much as they do. They are also just 1-4 ATS their L5 NCAA Tourney games. Compare that to Xavier, who is 4-1 (3-0 in 1st Rd). Xavier also won all four times this season it played with five or more days rest! 10* Xavier

10* Florida (3:10 ET): All week long, we've heard a lot of people that haven't watched East Tennessee State play talk about how good East Tennessee State is. Granted, they were the best team in the SoCon this year (finished in three-way tie for 1st), but Florida is a bad draw for the 13th seeded Buccaneers. The Gators will simply be happy to face an opponent besided Vanderbilt as the Commies upset them not only in the regular season finale, but in the SEC Tourney as well. But those B2B outright losses have served to create some pretty significant value on the favorite in this spot. The key here will be ETSU's strength (3-pt shooting) getting neutralized by a Florida defense that does a phenomenal job of limiting three-point shots. I always say to beware of the "trendy underdog" this time of year and the bottom line is this line should be higher. Lay the points. 

The last time a SoCon team won a NCAA Tournament game was Davidson back in '08. That team of course had a guy by the name of Steph Curry. East Tennessee State's last Tourney win was back in '92. They are 2-10 SU all-time in the Big Dance. What will decide this year's trip is three-point shooting. ETSU shoots an impressive 38.3% from behind the arc, led by TJ Cromer, who made nine himself in a semifinal win over Samford last week. But Cromer carries a lot of the load, perhaps too much, and one player cannot beat Florida by himself. Especially not w/ the Gators allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from three-point range. What's really impressive is that they allow only 18 3-pt ATTEMPTS per game. Limiting ETSU looks, particular Cromer's, will be huge here.

ETSU is pretty good at forcing turnovers. But their biggest problem is their propensity to also give the ball away. This will be a major issue against Florida. Yes, losing John Egbunu for the rest of the season hurts - both literally and figuratively. But the Gators have a statistical profile of a team much better than its overall record. Not only are they 4th in defensive efficiency, but they are a very respectable 30th in offensive efficiency. ESTU is 44th and 109th respectively. Florida is actually top 10 overall in the KenPom ratings. This is a great "buy low" opportunity as too many people are on the dog. At no point this season did the Gators lose three consecutive games. 10* Florida.

8* Princeton (12:15 ET): Even after B2B trips to the Elite 8, Notre Dame's Mike Brey still has the worst Tourney ATS record of any HC in the field at 5-11. With his Fighting Irish fresh off a run to the ACC Tournament Final, I feel they may be ripe for the picking in their first round matchup w/ Ivy League Champ Princeton. Sure, Princeton played through Sunday, winning the 1st ever Ivy League Tournament (2 games). But this Tigers team has not lost a game since falling at Monmouth all the way back on December 20th! So, needless to say, they'll be a "tough out." This is a 5-12 matchup and I'm sure you know the history of the pairing. It always seems as if there's an early upset on the first day of the tourney, often in a 5-12 matchup. Just last year, Princeton's rival Yale pulled the upset against Baylor. Time for a little deja vu? Take the points.

It's a 19-game win streak overall for Princeton and certainly it has included some close calls. None moreso than Saturday's win vs. Penn in their Tournament semifinal. It was a road game for the Ivy's top team and they trailed virtually the entire way. But after a last second tip-in forced OT, the Tigers were not only able to win the game, but also steal the cover (I was on them!). They followed that by dispatching of Yale 71-59 as seven-point chalk. Overall, they finished conference play at 16-0 SU, winning by an average margin of 13.1 PPG. Now, obviously it's a big jump in class to face Notre Dame. But this team can shoot the three-pointer well (38.3%) and they can defend (allow only 61.5 PPG). In conference play, they forced a turnover on an astounding 23.2% of opponents' possessions. Playing at a slower tempo should also serve them well here.

Notre Dame may have finished second in the ACC, but they were certainly NOT the conference's second best team. In fact, I don't even consider them in the top five! Kudos to the job Brey has done in South Bend, but an ankle injury to Benzie Colson is cause for concern even though the starting forward is listed as probable to play here. Colson is his team's leading scored and rebounder and the Irish are not a team that rebounds particularly well. Rebounding is probably Princeton's one weakness, but I don't think they have to worry about the Irish exploiting it. The bigger problem for ND though is that I'm not sold on their ability to defend the three-point line. Also, when factoring out home games, it is Princeton that has the better SU record. An outright upset is a very real possibility here. 8* Princeton

10* Providence (9:10 ET): I don't really understand the intial line move for this contest. Check that. I understand it; but don't agree with it. The storyline here is in last year's NCAA Tournament (Rd of 64), Providence beat USC 70-69 on a last second layup. Now USC gets its chance for revenge. But this - to me - is clearly one of those times where the revenge angle is being overrated. It certainly seems to be overshadowing the fact that the Trojans are probably the least deserving at-large team in the field. They've dropped five of eight and one would have to go back to the end of January to find the last time they beat a team that didn't finish in the bottom three of the Pac 12! Providence was lethal in the underdog role this season, going 12-4 ATS. Take the points.

In last year's meeting, USC shot much better from the field, but was only 7 of 13 from the FT line and that cost them. They returned four starters from that team and opened the season by winning their first 14 games. But few, myself included, took them very seriously. Since that 14-0 SU start, the Trojans are just 10-9 SU and, again, six of those wins came at the expense of the bottom of their league. It's telling that despite the 24-9 SU record, most don't even consider this to be a top 50 team. Their "luck rating" according to KenPom is one of the highest among all NCAA Tournament teams as they went 9-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. Might it be another heartbreaking end to the season? 

Meanwhile, one could make the case that Providence shouldn't have to play this extra game. They went 3-1 SU this year against Marquette and Xavier, two other Big East teams in the field. Comparing conferences, the Big East may not be as top heavy as the Pac 12, but it was a deeper league and probably better overall. In fact, no other conference in America sent a higher percentage of its teams to the NCAA Tournament than did the Big East (7 of 10). The Friars should be able to exploit a leaky Trojans defense which gives up 77.8 PPG away from home. HC Ed Cooley called his team's performance in the Big East Tourney against Creighton "lackadaisical" and I would agree as the Friars didn't shoot well and turned the ball over 22 times. Still, they actually led at halftime. The turnover issue is usually not a problem for them and like I just said, they should shoot better here given the number of points per game USC typically allows. 10* Providence

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Don't ask me to shed any tears for Jim Boeheim and Syracuse not being included in the Field of 68. When you post only two victories away from home ALL SEASON, your chances of making an NCAA Tournament run seem pretty slim to me. As far as the Orange's motivation for this year's NIT, there's two ways this can go. One is that the disappointment of being left out of the Big Dance will lead to a poor effort. We've seen that before from team's in their position. Or, they could take their frustration out on a lesser opponent. Given that tonight's game takes place in the Carrier Dome, I'll side with option #2. The Cuse is 16-3 SU this year in the Carrier Dome (+15.3 PPG) and one could very well question the motivation of their opponent as well. Lay the points.

UNC Greensboro is the opponent for Syracuse in this 1st round NIT matchup. The Spartans wound up being the top seed in the SoCon (Southern Conference) Tournament, but only because of a tiebreaker. They were actually a very short favorite in the semifinal round vs. Wofford, a game they won by only four. Then, they were notably a dog against East Tennessee State in the final game, which they lost 79-74. Having been so close to an automatic bid, only to come up short, leaves this side with a feeling of disappointment as well. I don't think a trip to the vaunted Carrier Dome is enough to erase that. Yes, UNC Greensboro had won nine in a row before losing to E Tenn St last Monday. But that was against much lesser competition and several of the wins came by slight margins.

Looking at this line, it seems as if Syracuse's home court advantage is not being factored in at all. They covered 11 of their 14 lined home games during the regular season, including outright upsets of NCAA Tournament teams Duke, Virginia and Florida State. They average 80.5 PPG here on 48.9% shooting. They also get it done on the defensive end as well, holding visitors to just 65.2 PPG on 38.6% shooting. I can see UNC Greensboro struggling against Boeheim's zone and it's a big step up in class going from the SoCon to the ACC. I expect the Orange to play w/ a chip on their collective shoulder here. 8* Syracuse

8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): Unless someone has hard evidence that Georgia Southern will be deliberately tanking this evening, I have no unearthly idea why this line would be so low. The Eagles were 10-2 SU at home this year, averaging 84.3 PPG and outscoring opponents by a margin of 12.6 points per game. Playing in the Sun Belt, they typically faced much better competition than what they'll see here from Utah Valley State, a team that hails from the weak WAC. Also, if you want to question Georgia Southern's motivation here, note that the come into the CBI on a three-game losing streak. They were embarrassed by Troy in the SBC Tourney, so I believe tonight they'll be looking to atone for that performance. They will. Lay the points.

Utah Valley State did not even finish the regular season w/ a winning record, in conference play or overall. They were a middle of the road team in a bad league. Two of the three teams the Wolverines finished ahead of - UT Rio Grande Valley and Chicago State - you've probably never heard of and they are absolutely atrocious. Heck, there's a good chance you've never heard of Utah Valley State! There were three decent teams in the WAC and the Wolverines went 1-6 SU against them. By far, their "crowning achievement" in the regular season was an 84-72 upset of New Mexico State in Las Cruces. But this is a bad defensive team on the road (76.6 PPG allowed) and they don't shoot well at all from three-point range. 

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has no issue scoring here in Statesboro. They haven't played here since a tough loss to UT Arlington back on 2.20, a game in which the Eagles led for much of the second half only to fall apart late. They rebounded w/ a win (as 7-pt dogs) at Arkansas State, but have since lost three straight. Two were on the road, at Ark Little Rock and Georgia State (were a dog in both games) and then came an ugly 90-70 loss to Troy in the conference tourney. That 20-pt loss was the Eagles' worst of the season, save for a loss at Minnesota back in early December. Like I said earlier, they'll want to atone for it. Troy shot a blistering 60% from the field in that game, including 14 of 22 from three-point range, something that UVSU is simply not capable of doing. 8* Georgia Southern

8* Over NC Central/UC Davis (6:40 ET): Both games went Over yday and I think this battle of 16 seeds will follow suit. For those who may be unfamiliar, NC Central is the regular season/tournament champion of the MEAC, which is not a strong league. UC Davis hails from the Big West, which also had a bad year. UC Davis was not the regular season champ in their league, but upset UC Irvine in the Tournament Final to get here. Both teams are actually pretty stout defensively, but then again, those numbers need to be taken w/ a grain of salt due to the weak competition each faced. UC Davis, in particular, is due for an uptick in overall scoring after a relatively ugly series of results recently. With both teams averaging over 70 PPG, Over is the call here.

Though they did lose the final two regular season games, NC Central really did dominate the MEAC this year. The Eagles played six lined games during the course of the year and covered them all. That includes a 3-0 ATS performance in the confernece tournament where they posted two wins of 30+ pts and held opponents below 35% shooting. But while they hold opponents to below 40% shooting for the year, NC Central faced a lot of bad offenses during the course of the year. Though no one will ever confuse UC Davis for UCLA, the Aggies are a more prolific offensive team compared to most MEAC teams. They average over 70 PPG and while recently that average has been down, that's due to two games vs. the same opponent (UC Irvine).

UC Davis' last six games all stayed Under the total, which obviously played a significant role in this number opening up so low. During the course of the season, they regularly saw totals in the 140's. On Feb 23, they beat CS Northridge, 96-85, scoring 56 pts in the first half. So this team is capable of putting points on the board. The same holds true for NC Central. While the vast majority of Eagles' games didn't have lines, we still have scores to go off of and they dropped 95 pts in their first conf tourney game. They average 75.2 PPG for the year. Again, the impressive defensive number have to be taken w/ a grain of salt due to the competition they faced. UC Davis is by no means a great three-point shooting team, but they should easily top the horrendous 29% average posted by NC Central opponents this year from behind the arc. Look for this one to sneak Over. 8* Over NC Central/UC Davis

8* Kansas State (9:10 ET): Some "good ol' fashioned" morning steam caught my eye for this one. Truth be told, when this "first four" matchup was announced, my lean was to Kansas State anyway. Some sharp money showing up on the Wildcats Tuesday morning only confirmed my line of thinking. The upset of Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals is probably what solidified KSU's place in the field of 68 and it should also be pointed out that they led a very good West Virginia team most of the way in the semis before losing by just one point. They are clearly the superior defensive team in this matchup and the fact that Bruce Weber has been here many times before matters as well. Wake Forest coach Danny Manning has tourney experience, both as a player and as the HC at Tulsa (2014), but not w/ his current group, which largely overachieved this season.

Manning's first two Wake Forest teams went just 24-38 overall including 7-29 SU in ACC play. This year, they jumped to 19-13 and 9-9. Despite losing to Va Tech in the second round of the conference tourney (as three-point favorites), they were able to get in. I'm not sure I agree with their inclusion though. Granted, the ACC is probably the toughest league in America. They do have a win over Louisville, but in Winston-Salem. Overall, they were just 3-7 SU vs. ACC teams that made the NCAA Tournament and only one of those wins was away from home (at Va Tech in reg season finale). Defensively, this may be one of the worst teams in the entire field. The Demon Deacons allow 77.9 PPG and only seven of the 68 teams are worse in terms of efficiency. Six of those are seeded 14th or worse.

Kansas State, meanwhile, gives up only 66.9 PPG and is top 27 in the country in defensive efficiency. Compared to Wake Forest's 159th place ranking, that's a massive edge. Now Wake is the better offensive team for sure, but it's defense that matters more this time of year. Not only did the Wildcats beat the likes of West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Baylor (twice) this year, but they also played Kansas tough twice, losing both matchups by three pts or less. Yes, KSU had a losing conference record, but they are the better team here. 8* Kansas State

8* Campbell (7:00 ET): This is an "off the radar" game in a tournament few will even pay attention to. But the matchup offers tremendous value. Campbell made a nice run in the Big South Tourney, getting all the way to the final game before bowing out to Winthrop. It was by no means an impressive regular season for the Fighting Camels (yes, that's their nickname!) as they finished just 7-11 SU in league play. But in the tournament, they pulled an impressive upset of UNC Asheville, who was arguably the Big South's best team. I think that the three wins they posted in the conference tourney will give this team incredible confidence going into the CIT. Meanwhile, Houston Baptist had to be somewhat disappointed after their "one and done" showing in the Southland. I do not think the road team deserves to be favored in this spot. 

Houston Baptist had been rolling going into the Southland Tourney. The Huskies had won nine straight to claim the league's 4-seed. But they were upset by Sam Houston State in the quarterfinals, at home, 63-59. They certainly picked a bad time to have their weakest offensive showing of the season. Worse yet, they wasted one of their better defensive efforts. The Huskies are not stout, especially away from home where they allow 81.5 PPG. They have just four "true" road wins all season (11 losses).  Looking back through the team's nine game win streak, you see a lot of home games and a general absence of the Southland's best teams. I put little stock into the streak as the team was just 8-12 SU prior to it beginning.

Campbell was by no means a dominant home team during the regular season, but they are clearly the better defensive squad in this matchup. They give up just 69.4 PPG at home and they've held three of their previous six opponents under 60 points. That's what you look for this time of year. The CIT is hardly a "marquee event," but I think the Fighting Camels will treat it as such. They have to be pleased just to be playing at all right now. Meanwhile, I think Houston Baptist is still smarting from its early exit in the conference tourney. Look out for Campbell guard Chris Clemons, who scored 51 pts in the upset over UNC Asheville. He is the nation's third leading scorer (24.5 PPG) and very well could be the difference maker in this one. 8* Campbell

10* Troy (2:00 ET): For a third time this year, Troy will get a chance at beating Texas State. This time, obviously, the stakes are much higher. I won't be putting a ton of stock into the fact that Texas State won both regular season meetings as each game was decided by just four points. Neither contest saw Troy shoot the ball particularly well. They had a halftime lead in San Marcos last month, but obviously could not hold on. Saturday was a tumultouous day in the Sun Belt w/ the top two seeds in the conference tourney falling. That had to send the oddsmakers scrambling and as a result, I believe they've set a line that's far too low.

Texas State took out regular season champ UT-Arlington yday, but that comes w/ a caveat. The top seeded Mavericks played w/o their second leading scorer. While it turned into a pretty lopsided final (Texas St won 83-62), that was due to a rather significant shooting discrepancy, the likes of which I don't see repeating itself here. Texas State averages only 65.3 PPG away from home this year. Troy may have finished a game back of the Bobcats and had to play an additional game to get here. But they have actually outscored SBC foes by a larger margin of the course of the year. Also, the difference between third place and eighth place in this league was razor thin. Three teams tied for third at 11-7 while three more finished 10-8. 

While Texas State was turning in a virtual wire to wire lead against the league's reg season champ, Troy needed to come back from as many as 15 down to beat Georgia State. But they faced that deficit early (first half) and still wound up winning by 11 after outscoring the Panthers 46-26 in the second half. They pulled off the comeback despite not shooting well. They were just 42.6% for the game including 6 of 26 from three-point range and missed 14 of 36 FT attempts. Fortunately, they held Georgia State to 15 of 38 on two-point shot attempts. The Trojans are now 5-0 ATS on a neutral court this year. The third time will prove to be the charm here against Texas State. 10* Troy

10* Kentucky (1:00 ET): Another lethargic start led to a "closer than it should have been" final for Kentucky yday against Alabama. The Wildcats, who are gunning for a third straight SEC Tournament Title here, shot 52 percent from the field in Saturday's semifinal. But despite going 13 of 17 over the final six minutes, they were just 69% from the FT line. Still, they never relinquished the lead over the final 17 minutes and here they are. Given that they were outrebounded, outscored in the paint (almost 2:1!) and -13 in bench points, perhaps it should be considered impressive that they won by any margin at all. I'm going to lay the points here as UK is fortunate not to draw Florida or even Vanderbilt in the Tournament Final. Rather, it's Arkansas, a team that's overvalued after a surprise blowout yday.

Arkansas routed Vanderbilt Saturday, 76-62 and they led by more than the final margin for much of the second half. It was an impressive win considering the Razorbacks were slight underdogs in the contest. But remember they were playing Vandy a day removed from an OT win that was a late finish. Here, they've got the shorter turnaround compared to the opponent. The Hogs also stand to gain little from an upset of UK. Their lot is cast as they figure to be a middle seed (8-10) in the Big Dance next week. I do not expect the Razorbacks to play as well today, especially when it comes to shooting the ball (were 48% vs. Vandy).

The Razorbacks' tempo proved to be way too much for a Vandy team that was not only off an OT game the day prior, but also playing its third game in as many days. Kentucky is a different story. The Wildcats have the SEC's best defense and had held their previous five opponents to an average of 63.9 PPG before Alabama. Overall, the 'Cats have won 10 straight. They crushed Arkansas in Lexington earlier in the year, winning 97-71 as 17.5-pt favorites. There was no meeting in Fayatteville. It sure does seem as if the oddsmakers have overadjusted the line based on the result of that first matchup. 10* Kentucky

10* Connecticut (5:30 ET): Apparently, the oddsmakers don't see fit to give UConn any credit for this year's American Conference Tournament being held in nearby Hartford. This will be the third day in a row I'm rolling w/ the Huskies. Thursday, they did come up just shy as double digit faves against USF (did lead by 13 at the half), but last night I cashed in huge as they upset third-seeded Houston, 74-65 as five-point dogs. The American is considered to be two heavyweights (SMU & Cincinnati) that are locks for the NCAA Tournament and then "everyone else." UConn draws one of those two heavyweights today (Cincy), but given what we saw yday, they clearly have a shot due to being the de facto host this weekend. I'll take the points for a 2nd straight day w/ Kevin Ollie's team. 

Cincinnati also rolled in their quarterfinal matchup yday, beating overmatched Tulsa 80-61 as 15.5-pt chalk. The Bearcats have lost only two league games all season, at SMU and at UCF, and have little to play for here. Regardless of what happens over the next two days, they'll likely be a 4 or 5 seed in the Big Dance. Other than a possible "rubber match" with SMU, there's little motivation for this side. That can be a dangerous thing this time of year. Contrast that w/ UConn, who obviously must win the next two days in order to qualify for the field of 68. Adding to that motivation here is the Huskies have double revenge. They lost to the Bearcats by double digits twice during the regular season. I see the third time being the charm, at least at the betting window. 

HC Ollie cited the home court edge as a big reason why his team was able to upset Houston last night "I could feel the energy in there and I know our players fed off it," Ollie said. "We played really disciplined basketball down the stretch. I was very proud of that." A strong close to the first half keyed the victory. The Huskies also shot 54.5% from the field, including 8 for 17 on three-point attempts. That's a far cry from how they shot the ball the last time against Cincinnati where they finished a hideous 15 of 48 including 3 of 18 on three-pointers. Clearly, they'll shoot better this go around. It was less than a week ago that these teams met. It's really tough to beat the same opponent three times in a year, let alone twice in a week. Again, Connecticut's home court edge here means SOMETHING! 10* UConn

8* Princeton (1:30 ET): For the first time ever, the Ivy League is having itself a Conference Tournament! The two-day event is essentially the equivalent of "putting one's toe in the water" as they took only the top four teams. The layout of this weekend's festivities are hardly advantageous to the regular season champ, Princeton, who actually has to play this semifinal matchup on its opponent's home floor. That would be a Penn team that they've beaten twice before this season, by 9 and 15 points. They have, in fact, beaten the Quakers six straight times. Having not lost a conference game all season, Princeton has proven itself to be the head of the class this year in the Ivy League and I feel will overcome the "home court disadvantage" this afternoon. Lay the points. 

Penn comes into this inaugural Ivy League Tournament having played four straight games that were decided by three points or less. They won the regular season finale, 75-72 over Harvard, to clinch the 4 seed. In terms of talent and performance level, there is a clear gap here between the Quakers and the top three. Were it not for the home court advantage, Penn would realistically have zero shot this weekend. Even w/ it though, I think it's bound to be a long afternoon here. The two regular season games vs. Princeton saw them average a measly 50.5 PPG. The more lopsided result, a 64-49 loss as 5.5 pt dogs back on Feb 7, actually took place here at home. I just don't see any thing Penn has done since that time to make me think they'll be any more competitive here. 

Princeton dominated their Ivy League brethren this year to the tune of a 14-0 SU record while outscoring them by 13.5 PPG. They allowed just 56.4 PPG. Nationally, they rank in the top 10 in points allowed! There were only four conference games all season decided by fewer than eight points and two of those came against Harvard. The Tigers put an exclamation point on the regular season last Saturday w/ an 85-48 thumping of Dartmouth at home. Look for them to roll against Saturday afternoon. 8* Princeton

10* UConn (9:30 ET): Though they failed to cover last night (I had them) as double digit favorites against USF (won by 11), I still feel as if UConn isn't being given the proper credit here for the American Conference holding its Tournament in Hartford. Sure, it's not Storrs, but the Huskies have a definite edge in terms of locale this weekend. So even facing a rested Houston team tonight, they are the play as they are GETTING points. This is a double revenge spot to boot as Houston won the two regular season meetings by 5 and 16 points. Interestingly, the larger margin of victory occurred in Storrs, but UConn is much improved since that time. A four-game ATS losing skid may seem to indicate otherwise, but playing so close to campus here makes an outright victory a distinct possibility. Take the Points. 

Houston is the 3-seed here. Consider them to be a distant third behind conference heavyweights SMU and Cincinnati, the only two American teams guaranteed a birth in the Big Dance next week. Similar to UConn, Houston's regular season did have a great end at the pay window as they finished just 1-4 ATS over the L5 games w/ the lone cover coming on Senior Day against East Carolina. Four of the Cougars' six conf losses did come at the hands of SMU and Cincy. But that's not saying much considering the state of the league. While they shoot the three well, Houston averages just 72.1 PPG on the road. They are also only 1-7 ATS their L8x as a neutral court fave of 3.5 to 6 points.

UConn led by 13 at the break last night and upped the lead to 15 early in the second half. But they took their foot off the gas pedal and let USF back in the game. Free throws were key, particularly down the stretch. Though tighter than you'd like to see, I don't think last night's game puts the Huskies at that much of a disadvantage here. I expect them to shoot the ball A LOT better tonight than they did in either of the two reg season matchups w/ Houston. This is actually a triple revenge spot going back to the final meeting of last season. As a dog against anyone besides SMU and Cincy, UConn has covered four straight times including a perfect 3-0 ATS in American play. 10* UConn

8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Despite having lost their best player (Antonio Campbell) for the rest of the season (back in late January), Ohio remains the favorite of many (myself included!) to win the MAC Tourney this weekend. Last night, the Bobcats survived a close call vs. Toledo, prevailing only 67-66 as 2.5-pt favorites. But they catch a break here in that the 6-seed Kent State happened to upset 3-seed Buffalo, 68-65 as well. That provides the Bobcats w/ a far more favorable matchup than they otherwise would have had to deal with here in the semis. Also, one could argue that Toledo is a better team than Kent (seeding malfeasance!), so this price looks like a bargain. Lay the points.

Admittedly, Kent State has gotten hot over the last month. The Golden Flashes have won seven of eight w/ the only loss coming to Akron, the MAC's regular season champ, in the reg season finale. However, one has to wonder what they have left in the tank for tonight. This will be their third game in the tournament and so far they've had to survive TWO close calls. The first came at home (Monday) as they needed overtime to win a wild one, 116-106 over Central Michigan. They trailed that game (again, was at home) by 13 pts at halftime. Two Kent State players - Jimmy Hall and Jalen Avery - scored a career-high in points in that game. Then came last night's win over two-time defending MAC Tourney Champ Buffalo. This time, it was a strong 1st half for the Golden Flashes, who led 39-32 at the break. It was a game w/ a ton of foul shots on both sides, but Kent certainly benefited from THREE different Buffalo players fouling out. 

By virtue of being the #2 seed, Ohio has had to play just once to get here. That was last night against a Toledo team I felt was the tourney dark horse. It was not easy for the Bobcats as they trailed by eight at halftime and trailed by as many as 15 in the first half. But a 16-0 run that started in the first and carried through to the second half gave them the lead until the final minute of the game. Down one, Kenny Kaminski made a jumper w/ seven seconds to go to win it. OU has now won six of eight, their only two losses both coming by 4 pts or less to Buffalo and Akron. They split the reg season series w/ Kent (each team won at home), but the Bobcats' 18-point win in Athens was far more impressive than the Golden Flashes' three-point win in Kent. Not only is Kent playing for a third time this week, but they were the later game yday. 8* Ohio

8* Minnesota (2:30 ET): Right off the bat, I'll make a confession that I'm not particularly sold on Minnesota's long-term prospects (as in making it far in the NCAA Tournament). But w/ the edge of having a bye (when their opponent played yday) plus the motivation of double revenge and being off a loss in the regular season finale should spur them onto victory today. Because it's March, everyone figures to be on the "Izzo bandwagon," but the fact is that this Michigan State team simply is not as good as past editions. They won big yday, but that was w/ a bye themselves against an inferior, unrested team in Penn State. We saw in another early game yday between two seemingly evenly matched teams (Oklahoma St-Iowa St) how the bye matters. 

The last time Minnesota played was Sunday. They lost at Wisconsin, 66-49 as eight-point dogs. Keep in mind *I* was on the Badgers there. The loss snapped an eight-game win streak for Minnesota. Despite it not being a good shooting day (32.1 FG%), the Gophers actually led at the half, 29-27. The difference was Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig hitting five three-pointers in the second half. In two losses to Michigan State this year, the Gophers haven't shot well either (just 37.7% and 33.3%). They were blown out in East Lansing (lost by 18), but the game at home was decided by just a single point. Defensively, this team is sound as they're holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year. Again, they'd won eight in a row before Sunday and have the edge of not having played yday. I expect a very motivated side this afternoon.

Michigan State won 78-51 over Penn State yday, easily covering the six-point number. They jumped all over the Nittany Lions early, taking a 45-27 lead into halftime. Keep in mind that was the Nittany Lions' second game in less than 24 hours and had to go to overtime to win their 1st round game. Sparty is now 28-14 SU in the Big 10 Tourney all-time, winning four of the last six years including last season. But ... as mentioned earlier, this is not the same strong outfit we're used to seeing out of East Lansing. They lost B2B games to end the regular season and are still just 6-11 SU on the road/in neutral site games. Minnesota actually boasts a winning record away from home, plus is 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS this year seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* Minnesota

8* UConn (8:00 ET): As was the case w/ Siena last week, it sure does look as if UConn is not being given the proper credit as tournament host this weekend. The fact that the American is holding it's tourney in Storrs would certainly seem to at least give the Huskies a "fighting chance" against the conference's two heavyweights, SMU and Cincinnati. While this team is nowhere close to the program's heyday under Jim Calhoun or even the group that cut down the nets a few years ago for current HC Kevin Ollie, they certainly should be able to rout lowly South Florida here on their home floor. After all, they've already beaten the Bulls by a total of 67 points in two meetings this year! Lay the points! 

I took Connecticut when they hosted USF last month. What an easy one that was! They crushed the Bulls 97-51 as 12.5-pt chalk, shooting 62.5% from the field including a blistering 16 of 24 from three-point range. Obviously, it would be difficult to pull off such a lopsided margin again. But, there's plenty of room to spare even w/ this double digit spread being slightly higher than it was the last time. Clearly, oddsmakers had to adjust after what happened one month ago, but IMO, they haven't adjusted nearly enough. Earlier in the year, the Huskies went to Tampa and beat USF by 21 there. I surmise the reason for this line being lower than I anticipated is that UConn dropped its last four regular season games. But two of those were to SMU and Cincy while the other two were road losses by five points or less. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in this conference tournament the L2 years.

USF won only ONE conference game all season. It was at home against East Carolina back on Feb 11, which was the game after they got destroyed here in Storrs. What's followed has been five more losses, four of them by double digits. Against the other American teams, the Bulls were outscored - on average - by about 16 points per game. Away from home, they had just one win all year and gave up about 80 PPG. All four matchups w/ UConn the L2 seasons have been decided by 20 points or more. What's changed now? Nothing. 8* UConn

8* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Following an impressive finish to the regular season (5-1 SU/6-0 ATS L6 games), Vanderbilt has been identified as a potential darkhorse for this weekend's SEC Tournament in Nashville. It helps that the tourney is being played in close proximity to campus. The Commodores lone loss in the last six games came at Kentucky, by just six points. They ended their regular season w/ a 73-71 upset of Florida as four-point dogs on their home floor. If the Commies were to make the field of 68 w/o winning this weekend, then they'd be the first 15-loss at large time in the history of the Big  Dance. But as upward as the trajectory seems to be, I feel the team has become drastically overvalued here. I'll take the points here as Texas A&M has double revenge to boot. 

Texas A&M finished their regular season just one-half game worse than Vandy in the overall standings, but two games worse in the SEC. Thus, they are not even close to being considered for an at-large berth. Thus, it's "win or go home" this weekend for the Aggies. Though quarterfinal matchup w/ second seed Florida all but guarantees the stay will be a short one in Nashville, I do feel they'll pull the upset tonight. Ironically, the Aggies played Vandy tougher in Nashville than they did in College Station. It was just a five-point game at Memorial Gym three weeks ago. Vandy was a four-point favorite there. Even w/ somewhat of a "de facto" homecourt edge here, I think the Commies are overvalued for the rematch. As they did in the 1st meeting, A&M shot poorly on 2.16. In fact, they finished shooting about 40% from the field overall in the two games vs. Vandy this year. This is a team that shoots at a 46.2% clip for the year. 

A&M's defense must also be commended. They are holding teams to just 40% shooting - for the year. Vandy struggled in the second meeting, making only 12 of 30 two-point attempts. But they were 10 of 26 from three-point range as opposed to 3 of 16 for the Aggies. I don't expect that discrepancy to exist again here. A&M played Kentucky tough in its regular season finale, even taking a 19-4 lead to open the game. Save for Vandy, the Aggies mostly lost to only elite teams this year. Their non-conf schedule included UCLA, Arizona and West Virginia. Vandy has been one and done in the SEC Tournament the L2 years, failing to cover both times. 8* Texas A&M

10* Indiana (6:30 ET): From what I've seen, both teams here are considered to be below the cut line as far as the NCAA Tournament goes. Iowa is closer, generally regarded to be among the dreaded "first four out." Regardless, the loser of Thursday's Big 10 second round tourney matchup can kiss their Big Dance dreams goodbye. For the record, the rationale for Iowa being closer to the cut line is that they closed the regular season hotter (four-game win streak) and beat Indiana 96-90 in a game the oddsmakers had listed as a pick em. But that was in Iowa City and the game was decided in OT, one of four OT results this year for both sides (both went 2-2 SU). Interestingly, the oddsmakers have opened the 10-seed as the slight favorite here. I don't think by enough, however!

That OT loss in Iowa City from two weeks ago saw Indiana blow an 13-point lead. It's a game they probably feel that they SHOULD have won. They outshot Iowa for the game as the Hawkeyes were a woeful 5 of 24 from three-point range. The keys were Iowa leading scorer Peter Jok going for 35 pts w/ 22 of them coming from the FT line. Amazingly, as a team, the Hawkeyes got to the charity stripe a total of 47 times in that game, converting 39 of the opportunities. Indiana also shot well from the FT line, but was only 16 of 19. That kind of discrepancy in attempt should not again exist here at a neutral setting. Both teams average roughly the same number of FT attempts per game over the course of the season and it's Indiana that shoots the higher percentage.

These teams are pretty similar with each averaging slightly over 80 PPG. Both also allow plenty of points, but Indiana is slightly better, giving up four less points per game. Also, neither team has been very good away from home this year. Indiana is just 3-10 SU while Iowa is 4-9 SU. Why the edge to the Hoosiers then? Well, in addition to having revenge, I simply feel Iowa is a tad bit overvalued right now. That's thanks to stunning wins at both Maryland and Wisconsin late in the season. Meanwhile, Indiana did go to Ohio State and win its regular season finale. Iowa is just 2-11 ATS in tournament games and has been "one and done" in the Big 10 Tourney each of the last two years (0-2 ATS). 10* Indiana

8* Missouri (9:30 ET): There hasn't been a more unlucky team in the country this year than Missouri. At least according to the KenPom rating. That makes sense. The Tigers are 7-23 SU despite being outscored by less than four points per game. That's crazy. There were nine different losses by five points or less during the course of the year. Needless to say, they finished last in the SEC at 2-16 SU (tied w/ LSU). That's thanks to a loss in the regular season finale at Auburn, 89-78 as nine-point underdogs. But they get a third crack at these Tigers (also lost to them 77-72 in Columbia) tonight and perhaps this one will be the charm. Take the points. 

Auburn gives up plenty of points per game, 79.4 to be exact. Thus, they don't exactly seem trustworthy as favorites. Missouri shot the ball dreadfully in both regular season matchups (33.4% overall!), which doesn't seem right given most of Auburn's defensive efforts. Auburn's only two wins over its last seven games against LSU and Mizzou, the bottom two in the SEC. They last posted B2B wins at the start of February. Beating the same opponent, twice in a row, is difficult to do. Thus, don't be surprised to see the favored Tigers struggle in this spot. Bruce Pearl's team is pretty young and its best players is a freshman.

Missouri last won a game on Feb 11 when they clobbered Vanderbilt by 20. Again, they've been far more competitive than the record indicates. Auburn shot a season-best 56.1% from the field Saturday, including over 70% in the first half, percentages they certainly won't be able to match tonight. Despite falling behind big early, Mizzou did actually outscore Auburn in the second half. A second crack at the same opponent within a week's time should be just what the doctor ordered for the underdog here. 8* Missouri

8* TCU (7:00 ET): The way the Big 12 tournament works is that four teams have to play today in order to make the quarterfinals. That's probably fair because there's a bit of a chasm that exists between the top five and bottom five in this league w/ only Kansas State getting the "break" of not having to play today out of the latter group. The winner here is going to have to play Kansas tomorrow, so it's likely to be a short weekend for Oklahoma and TCU. But I believe the Horned Frogs are going to be the one's highly motivated to extend their season, if only for an additional day. Not only are the playing w/ immediate revenge here (lost in Norman in the reg season finale), but they're on a somewhat misleading seven-game losing streak. Go w/ the Horned Frogs here.

Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS its last six games, winning SU only three times. What's so odd about the Sooners' streak is that it coincides w/ the loss of their best player, Jordan Woodard, to a season-ending injury. Given that they won only half of the six games straight up, that tells me OU was able to take advantage of some predictably inflated lines down the stretch. All three wins came at home, by the way. In each of the three losses, they were double digit dogs. Without Woodard, Kameron McGusty becomes the team's leading scorer at 10.9 PPG. He scored a career-best 22 points against TCU on Saturday. One thing to note about that matchup is OU had two extra days to prepare and TCU was coming off a crushing one-point loss at home (to Kansas State).

I said earlier that TCU being on a seven-game losing streak is "misleading." Let me explain further. Four of the seven losses took place on teh road and the three in Ft Worth came by a combined five points. HC Jaime Dixon has noted that all the close losses began to wear on his team, but that's irrelevant now with every team having "new life." Incredibly, the Horned Frogs lost B2B games by a single point (WVU, Kansas State) before losing at Oklahoma on Saturday. Note they did beat the Sooners (by three) earlier in the year, but were actually 11-point favorites. There's been a massive swing in value from that game. Note that Oklahoma has been very streak ATS this season including a losing streak of five games before covering the last six. Their rotation goes only eight deep and w/o Woodard, it includes six underclassmen. 8* TCU

10* Over Arkansas Little Rock/UL Lafayette (6:00 ET): This is a 1st round matchup in the Sun Belt. Of the two teams, UL Lafayette is clearly the one more likely to make some noise this weekend. The Ragin Cajuns ended the regular season on a six-game win streak, culminating w/ an 83-81 upset of regular season champ UT Arlington on Senior Day. However, it should be pointed out that three of the six wins did come by two points or less. Still, this team can absolutely score (82.3 PPG!) and that's a big reason why I'm taking the Over in this matchup. Yes, Arkansas Little Rock has gone Under in eight straight games. But they've got a willing dance partner here and should see their own scoring increase significantly here. Take the Over.

Arkansas Little Rock won only three of its final 12 reg season contests, but two of the wins did come in the last three games. They're off a loss - 57-54 at Troy - a game where they held the opponent to 33.3% shooting yet somehow still lost. Of course, it hurts when you shoot only 36.4% from the floor yourself. For ALR, that game was lost at the FT line as Troy went 6 for 6 there in the final minute. Incredibly, the Trojans have gone seven straight games w/o topping 62 points and been held under 60 in six of those games. But for the season they are averaging 68.3 PPG, so if anything, they're just plain due for an increase. Overall, their last five games have averaged about 20 PPG fewer than the season average! There's value here. 

As I said, UL Lafayette will also be a willing dance partner here. Their games are played at a much faster pace and see a lot more scoring - on both sides. In addition to ranking 21st nationally in points per game, the Ragin Cajuns also have given up an average of 79.3 PPG in conference play. The last time these two faced off (1.28), it was an 88-82 ULL win w/ them shooting a preposterous 61.7% from the floor. I'm not saying the offenses will be as prolific this go around, but the precedent is there. Neither team has defended the three-point line particularly well, at least away from home, all season. With the Ragin Cajuns' games averaging nearly 160 PPG for the year, this total is too low for them. 10* Over Arkansas Little Rock/UL Lafayette

10* Idaho State (8:30 ET): On the surface, it would seem as if there's little reason to endorse Idaho State at this juncture. The Bengals lost their last eight regular season games and thus finished in the basement of the Big Sky Conference, tied w/ Southern Utah at 3-15 SU in conference play. But, if we've learned anything about these conference tournaments it's that they give teams like Idaho State a "new lease on life." Obviously, with little to play for down the stretch, it wasn't a huge surprise to see them consistently falter. But save for the regular season finale against Montana, the Bengals stayed generally competitive in those losses. The team they face in the 1st round of the Big Sky Tournament, Sacramento State, is hardly any kind of world beater and has actually been favored by more than a single point just three times in the last two months. Take the points here.

These teams played just once in the regular season and Sacramento State won (at home), 75-63 as six-point favorites. That's one of the three times the Hornets have been favored in the L2 months. Obviously they covered, but now are favored by the same amount at a neutral setting. There have been only two times that Sacramento State has been favored since that win on Feb 11, and in one of them they ended up losing outright (at home) to Northern Arizona. They're just 3-4 SU and ATS as a favorite this year and have laid more than six points in only one game. Tonight is just the second time all year they've been favored away from home. The Hornets went 0-3 SU/ATS in neutral setting during the regular season, losing by an average of 12.7 points per game.

Now I should probably point out that Idaho State has just ONE win away from home all year. It came on January 19th at Northern Colorado. It's been really tough times in Pocatello with SIX different players being lost for the season! But, as I said earlier, they weren't totally dominated in conference play. They actually shot the ball quite well in the 1st meeting w/ Sacramento State (51.0 FG%) and should be able to do so again considering the Hornets allow opponents to shoot at a high percentage, especially on the road. Also, Sac State is less than 30% from three-point range themselves away from home. Possible shocker in 1st round Big Sky action. 10* Idaho State

8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): This is the CAA Tourney Final and as expected it's a battle of the top two seeds. UNC Wilmington is the top seed, but not getting much respect due to the fact it could be a partisan crowd for Charleston. Note that this game is NOT being played on Charleston's campus, however. The teams exchanged wins on each other's floor during the regular season w/ UNC Wilmington winning 65-59 at Charleston and Charleston then returning the favor 67-66 at UNC Wilmington. Given that the Seahawks were favorites in both games, it certainly would appear - from a value standpoint - that they are the optimal side here. Lay the very short number.

UNC Wilmington lost just three CAA games in the regular season. Two of them were by one point. Since their last loss, 77-76 at Elon back on Feb 11, the Seahawks have won six in a row. The defending Tournament champs scored 105 pts in yday's semifinal win over William & Mary. They shot 59% from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. Will those numbers be difficult to duplicate tonight? Certainly. But let's note that this is a top 10 team nationally in scoring at 85.4 points per game. There aren't many "mid-majors" worth a damn this season, but UNC Wilmington is definitely one worth monitoring come Selection Sunday. This is a deep team. Sunday marked the 15th time this season that four or more players scored in double figures.

Charleston has also won six in a row. They beat Towson yday, 67-59 as 3.5-pt chalk. Unlike UNC Wilmington, the Cougars do it w/ defense as they're yielding just 63.7 points per contests this year. They held UNC Wilmington right around that average in both regular season meetings. But I have my doubts that they can do it a third time. The Cougars actually trailed much of the way yesterday against Towson and had only 21 pts at halftime. They did not take the lead for good until after the midway point of the second half. As far as Tournament Final games go, UNC Wilmington is 6-1 ATS while Charleston is 0-4. Again, I go back to the fact that the Seahawks were favored AT Charleston earlier in the year, thus it stands to reason they should be favored by more here. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* Denver (7:00 ET): Thanks to an unlikely regular season champion (South Dakota), the Summit League Tournament will be as wide open as any bracket we see all week. Already, there's been one significant upset, that being the 7-seed (IUPUI) knocking off the 2-seed (North Dakota St) yday and doing so in rather dominant fashion (76-57). The winner of this game will draw the top seed in the semifinal tomorrow. Denver is the #5 seed and did not play well down the stretch. They've lost three in a row coming into tonight, two at home and the other 88-64 at South Dakota State. But they get a crack at immediate revenge here playing the Jackrabbits a second straight time. I have these teams rated fairly evenly, so expect a much different result this time around. Take the points.

Back on Feb 19, Denver was coming off a five-day break and set to host IUPUI. The Pioneers were 8-5 SU against their Summit League brethren and certainly in a position to challenge for a top spot in the conference. But that's when things began to fall apart. They lost outright to the Jaguars - 83-72 as seven-point chalk. Then came an even more disappointing loss on Senior Night, 84-83 to Nebraska-Omaha, a game in which they were 5.5-pt favorites. But, by far, the worst result of the bunch took place last Saturday in Brookings. There, Denver lost 88-64 to South Dakota State as four-point underdogs. While the lopsided result of that contest needs to be taken into account, it sure does seem the oddsmakers are putting a bit too much stock into it. Either that, or they "forgot" that there's no homecourt advantage here. 

Denver did beat South Dakota State earlier in the year, 91-82 as seven-point favorites. What has plagued them these L3 games is a lack of defense as they've given up 83, 84 and 88 points. But I would not look for SDSU to shoot 59.6% from the field again as they did last Saturday. The Jackrabbits have admittedly been on fire shooting the ball this month, but they did have a couple of off nights, one of which was on the road (at North Dakota St) where they finished at 36.8% for the game. Factoring out home games is key here b/c SDSU has just four wins away from home all season. They've averaged just 64.0 PPG in three neutral site games. Denver is actually the more efficient of the two offenses here (shoots 48.3% from the field) and I think too much stock is being put into last week's result. I look for the Pioneers to exact some revenge. 10* Denver

10* Wisconsin (6:00 ET): It was exactly two weeks ago to the day that I released my top College Hoops play for February on Wisconsin. The Badgers were hosting Maryland and despite a low ticket count, they'd seen the sharp money come their way. They'd go onto win 71-60 as six-point chalk. Unfortunately though, that stands as their ONLY win over the L6 games. As was the case leading into that Maryland game, the Badgers are again reeling, having lost three in a row - all as favorites. The latest setback came here in Madison, 59-57 to Iowa on Wednesday. It was just their second home loss of the season. As I stated in my analysis for that Wisconsin-Maryland matchup, the Badgers don't lose B2B home games often. In fact, they don't lose B2B games often. This three-game losing streak of theirs is the longest of the season. They bounce back in a major way Sunday on Senior Night. Lay the points.

Minnesota, like Maryland, is a Big 10 team that I feel is overrated. Now I will give credit "where credit is due" in that the Golden Gophers come into tonight on an eight-game win streak. They are 7-1 ATS during that stretch. But Richard Pitino's team has not won in Madison since '09 and already fell to the Badgers earlier in the season, 78-76 as four-point dogs, in overtime. While the Gophers covered there, comparing the two lines sure makes it look as if there's substantial value on Wisconsin here. I don't see Minnesota matching its shooting effort from that 1st meeting where they hit 46.9% overall from the field including 9 of 17 three-pointers. Away from home, the Gophers' scoring is a lot more pedestrian at 68.2 PPG. That's a significant drop from the 80.7 PPG they average at home. As a reminder, Wisconsin allows only 56.2 PPG at home where it is still outscoring opponents by 19.7 PPG! 

Not only is this Wisconsin's first three-game losing streak of the season, it's just the second three-game losing streak over the last three seasons. What better time to get back on track than Senior Day? Again, it's worth noting that the Badgers were favored in all three losses. Previously, they'd gone 18-2 SU when favored this year. While I view Wisconsin still as a top 20 team, Minnesota would hardly crack my top 35. The Gophers have three overtime wins, so the record is a bit misleading. The winner here finishes tied for second place in the Big 10, so this is a big game. Wisconsin's five straight losses to unranked teams has tied a single-season record, but I feel the market has now adjusted accordingly. They won'

t be nearly as sloppy as they were Wednesday vs. Iowa (scoreless for final 3:12!) nor as bad from three-point range (6 of 23). It's worth mentioning that Minnesota's last two wins came against Penn State & Nebraska - both at home. 10* Wisconsin

10* Siena (9:30 ET): At least for this quarterfinal matchup, I don't believe Siena is being given the proper respect as the MAAC Tournament host. The Saints finished tied for 3rd in the conference after winning their final regular season contest, but will be the #4 seed in the tourney. That's just fine though. It means they draw a Fairfield team that they swept in the regular season. But that's not the only reason that isn't a favorable draw for the visiting Stags. This will be their third consecutive road game and it's looking as if one of their starters may not play tonight. Being the tournament host could mean big things this weekend for Siena, such as the possibility of hosting top seeded Monmouth tomorrow. But before that, they must T.C.B. (Take Care of Business) here. I think they will. Lay the points. 

Despite the relatively strong finish, Siena's regular season could fairly be dubbed "underwhelming." Coming into the year, they thought they'd be able to challenge Monmouth for the top spot. But they finished well off the pace (six games back) instead. Some of that is due to Nico Clareth missing significant time. Second on the team in PPG (13.6 in just 25 min per game), Clareth returned for good in early February and the Saints are 5-2 SU ever since. Both losses came against Monmouth. Clareth scored 22 pts (off the bench) in Sunday's 80-64 win over Marist. Siena led by as many as 22 thanks to some strong shooting, particularly from three-pt range. The win also improved their home record to 10-4 SU this year. In those seven games w/ Clareth back, Siena has topped 80 points five times. They are also shooting better than 50% the L5 games.

Fairfield ended its regular season w/ consecutive wins, on the road. But both came by four points or less and were low scoring games. In a sharp contrast to the way Siena ended its regular season, Fairfield has scored 62 pts or less in each of the L4 games. Now, as referenced above, they could be w/o a starter. Amadou Sidibe, the team's only seniora that sees significant minutes and one of their best players, is battling an ankle injury. In addition to being the Stags' fourth leading scorer, Sidibe is also #2 in the MAAC in rebounding. Even if he does play, this won't be the best matchup for him as Siena has the conference's top rebounder (Brett Bisping) on its roster. Sidibe also has a propensity to get into foul trouble. Bisping helped Siena outrebound Fairfield in both meetings during the regular season. Those two games saw Fairfield get to the FT line a total of only 17 times! That's been a problem for them much of the season. I look for Siena to roll here on its home floor. 10* Siena

10* Weber State (9:00 ET): What has happened to the once mighty Big Sky power known as Weber State? The Wildcats are really limping to the finish here w/ four straight losses. The most recent came here at home to long-time rival Montana on Thursday. But even worse has been the Wildcats' returns at the betting window. They've failed to cover nine games in a row and are just 1-12 ATS their L13 games overall. That one cover came against one of the real dregs of the league, Idaho State, as well. But let us not forget that this is the same team that opened Big Sky play at 11-2 SU. The conference opener was an 87-75 win at Montana State and that's the team they close the reg season out against. The result will be similar. Lay the points. 

This being Senior Night should add to the loads of motivation Weber State already has. They are tied w/ Montana State for third place in the conference (Idaho also 11-6 SU), so a lot is on the line here. Weber State still has to be cursing itself for the way it let one slip away against Montana two nights ago. More than halfway through the second half, they were shooting 55% percent from the floor and led by double digits. Most of the time, that turns out to be a win. But it wasn't as the Wildcats went cold late and lost for the 1st time at home to Montana in 13 seasons. They are still 9-3 SU at home this year and averaging 85.6 points per contest. I just find this entire swoon to be pretty shocking and figure "tonight is the night" for it to end.

Montana State was a 4.5-pt dog at home when they lost to Weber State, 87-75, back in December. So by that line comparison, it certainly appears as if they aren't getting enough "help" from the oddsmakers for the rematch. The Bobcats have won five in a row, but are also playing their second road game in three days. Aside from beating rival Montana in the home finale last Saturday, they've mainly been beating the bottom teams in the league and not by large margins either. Again, I simply believe the favorite is being way undervalued here given their pedigree and circumstance. 10* Weber State

8* Over Duke/North Carolina (8:15 ET): The latest installment of College Hoops' fiercest rivalry is rife w/ ACC Tournament implications. North Carolina is attempting to win the regular season crown outright, something they can do by simply winning tonight. Duke cannot win the regular season crown, but a win here ensures they'd at worst finish tied for third and be seeded no lower than fifth next weekend. The Blue Devils, tied w/ both Louisville and Florida State at 11-6 SU in ACC play, did just beat the Seminoles on Tuesday. The 75-70 win was their fourth straight game decided by five points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. North Carolina has had an extra day to prepare here, but is also off a humbling 53-43 loss at Virginia which snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak. I have no opinion on the side for this one, but love the total. Let's go Over. 

As a road favorite, I faded UNC Monday night in Charlottesville. But even I was stunned at how the Hoos put their clamps down on the Tar Heels' offense. Coming in averaging nearly 86 PPG, Roy Williams' team was held to HALF their scoring average! The 43-point effort is the lowest scoring game ever under HC Williams. Virginia smartly employed a smaller lineup against the Tar Heels and forced 12 first half turnovers. Keep in mind though that Duke is not Virginia (at least defensively). While UVA is #1 in the country in points allowed, Duke is tied for 81st. North Carolina remains 11th in the country in points per game at 85.0 PPG and the number predictably gets higher here in Chapel Hill. Last month in Durham, the teams combined for 164 points, yet the Under cashed b/c the O/U line was higher than it is here. 

Duke can also score. They put up 86 on the Heels when they beat them last month. The Blue Devils are top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (UNC #4) and also average more than 80 PPG for the year. Their last road game was an ugly effort (lost 55-50 at Miami), but they should be far more prolific tonight. Both teams shot better than 52% in the first meeting, but keep mind that North Carolina made only four three-pointers. They average seven per game. Had they hit just one more than last month's meeting would have gone Over the total. Yes, the Under is 3-0 the L3 meetings and 8-0-2 in UNC's L10 games overall. But tonight's number has been lowered too much (compared to 1st meeting). 8* Over Duke/North Carolina

10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Back on February 3rd, Central Michigan beat Western Michigan 86-82 as 3.5-pt chalk. Since that time, these two MAC West rivals have gone in very opposite directions. Central Michigan would win their next game, an 97-87 upset of Ohio, but has now dropped a stunning six in a row despite the presence of Marcus Keene, who is the nation's leading scorer at 29.4 PPG. The Chippewas are also 0-6 ATS in those six SU losses. Meanwhile, Western Michigan has not tasted defeated since losing in Mt. Pleasant, going a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS its last seven games. In my opinion, these disparate streaks have created a situation where the favorite has become greatly overvalued. I'll take the points.

Keene has certainly not shot the ball well recently, which is a big reason for CMU's slide. He is a pretty miserable 46 of 127 from the floor those L6 games. With three straight 20+ losses, many are going to simply write off the team in this reg season finale. But I think that's a mistake given what Keene and CMU are capable of offensively. They were absolutely embarrassed by Eastern Michigan in the final home game Tuesday and should would atone for that miserable defensive performance (gave up 109 points). Note that this could possibly be the first time ALL SEASON that the Chippewas close as double digit underdogs! This is a team averaging 88 PPG getting plenty of points. It would take quite the prolific shooting night for Western Mich to cover this spread. Note the Broncos shot 51% from the floor in Mt. Pleasant last month and still lost. 

Western Michigan certainly can score too, especially here in Kalamazoo. But lately it been the Broncos defense that has carried them. They've held three straight opponents to 56 pts or fewer, a streak I can assure you will NOT continue here. Now the Broncos are playing for at least a share of the MAC West title. They can win the division outright if they win here and Ball State loses (at home) to Northern Illinois. So the pressure is on and I feel it will be difficult to win by any kind of margin. Note Central Michigan still has the better overall SU record this season. Similar to Central Michigan not having been a dog of this size all year, this stands to be the most points Western Michigan has had to lay to any opponent all season. The Broncos have only been favored in FIVE of 17 MAC games overall. 10* Central Michigan

8* The Citadel (5:00 ET): If you're not familiar w/ The Citadel's brand of basketball, there's one thing you should not expect much of and that's defense. Consider that despite averaging over 90 PPG (2nd most in the country), the Bulldogs are 11-20 SU. This is due to being the worst defensive team in the country, allowing more than 95 PPG! Fortunately, for their opening round matchup in the SoConTournament, they draw Western Carolina. Both teams went just 4-14 SU in conference play, but interestingly two of Western Carolina's wins came at The Citadel's expense. That seems odd, though both victories were by a margin of five or less. I can't see the Catamounts pulling off the season sweep, so I'll call for The Citadel to score enough to take this rubber match.

The Citadel is not shy about putting up three-point shots. In the two meetings w/ Western Carolina, they've attempted 76 (!), exactly 38 in each game. They've made only 26, not a great percentage. It really hurt them going just 11 of 38 in the last meeting as they lost by four at home (were six-point favorites). Something else that certainly did not help was falling behind by 18 at the half. But still, the Bulldogs wound up having a chance to tie in the final minute! The first game was a 100-95 final. Again, it was a one possession game in the closing seconds and The Citadel had a chance to tie. Though the Bulldogs defense is beyond "suspect," I just can't see Western Carolina making over 50% of its three-point attempts again as they've done in the previous two meetings.

Now onto some positives for The Citadel. They did win their final two regular season games, both as pretty big underdogs. Saturday they went to Samford (were +13.5) and won 102-96 thanks to a 60-point second half. That snapped an 11-game overall losing streak! Then, in Monday's reg season finale, they upset Chattanooga (were +8), 85-76. That's certainly an encouraging performance, especially on the defensive end. As for Western Carolina, they too won on Senior Night Monday, beating VMI (last place team in the SoCon), 81-68 as two-point chalk. What's so shocking about the regular season results between these two is that both games were played at The Citadel's pace and they still lost. Western Carolina only averages 55.1 PPG away from home and is the third lowest scoring team in the country overall! 8* The Citadel

8* Loyola Chicago (3:30 ET): An interesting situation presents itself in the first of four Missouri Valley quarterfinal matchups today. Southern Illinois will be looking to upset favored Loyola for a third time this year. Back on February 4th, they beat the Ramblers on the road, 67-61 as six-point dogs. Then, last Saturday in Carbondale (reg season finale for both), they did it again (this time as only a 1-pt home dog), 72-70. Yet despite those results and SIU being the higher overall seed (4 vs. 5), Loyola is again the slight favorite here. So the oddsmakers are clearly maintaining the Ramblers are the better team here and so will I. With the double revenge angle in play and this being the second meeting in less than a week, I'll call for the third time to be the charm for Loyola IL. Lay the short number. 

Last Saturday's win is what secured the 4-seed for Southern Illinois. Both teams came into the reg season finale at 8-9 SU in MVC play. The game was not decided until Salukis' guard Armon Fletcher made a three-point basket w/ 17 seconds remaining. Both teams shot the ball well; it just so happened that SIU made the key shot. Neither team led by more than four points at any time in the contest. The Salukis also shot well in their upset of the Ramblers three weeks earlier. Loyola did not shoot well in that first meeting, particularly from three-point range. However, I am not expecting SIU to shoot the ball that well here this afternoon. That's because when they leave Carbondale, they are averaging only 62.5 PPG for the year. 

Loyola IL is just 2-6 SU vs. their in-state rival since joining the Missouri Valley. So there's additional motivation present here beyond this just being a conference tournament game. The Ramblers did not end the regular season well, dropping six of their final eight contests, but you should note that FOUR of those losses were by TWO points or less! While obviously not a "true" road game here, I again have to go back to my belief that Southern Illinois won't score much here. In three of their last five games away from home, they've failed to score even 50 points! I just can't see the inferior side winning for a third time this year. The underdog has actually won (straight up!) each of the L4 times these teams have met. Time for that to change. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): In the buildup for this Thursday night Big 10 showdown, you're likely to hear plenty about Wisconsin "trending downward." Well, I'm not buying it. Sure, it's true that the Badgers have lost back to back games and four of their last five. But that one win happened to be my *10* Game of the Month, a 71-60 victory at Maryland's expense. That was two Sundays ago and since then, they've lost at both Ohio State and Michigan State. But are two conference road losses worth getting that upset about? I think not. Here at the Kohl Center, the team has lost only one time all year. That was to Northwestern on Feb 12. But still, they are +21.0 points per game compared to their visitors here in Madison. Iowa is likely feeling a bit "too good about itself" coming off their own win over Maryland last weekend. Lay the points. 

It is concerning that all four of Wisconsin's recent losses have come to unranked foes. But previously, they'd gone a perfect 19-0 SU vs. teams outside the top 25, winning by an average margin of 18.7 PPG. So what ails them now? Well, it's more about recent opponents getting hot from three-point range. Ohio State made 10 of 16 from behind the arc last Thursday, it's best percentage in over a decade. Michigan State wasn't nearly as hot Sunday, but Wisconsin certainly was cold. The Badgers have now been held below 44% shooting in nine consecutive contests, which must improve. But given the Iowa defense and the fact Wisky is still above 47% from the field at home, I expect that improvement to begin tonight!

Iowa is a really tough team to get a beat on. Saturday's win at Maryland was just their second "true" road win of the year. The other one came at Rutgers. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are not good. They're allowing over 80 PPG outside of Iowa City. They got a career best performance out of freshman Jordan Bohannan Saturday (24 points), which is unlikely to be repeated, as is the team's overall 8 for 12 three-point shooting from that last game. The Hawkeyes are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Badgers the previous two seasons, including an outright loss LY (as six-point favorites) at home. I cannot see them being competitive, let alone winning, in B2B road games against ranked foes. 8* Wisconsin

10* Southern Utah (8:35 ET): What in the world would possess a man (or woman!) to take a team like Southern Utah? Well, as I've stated previously, their opponent here (Eastern Washinhgton) happens to be one of the more fortunate teams in the entire country. Eastern Wash, despite a shiny looking 20-9 SU record, has only outscored its opponents by an average of 3.4 points per game this year. They've still managed to snub me a time here or there, most recently in an 82-72 win over Weber State last Thursday. But that was at home. Tonight, they're on the road and laying far more points than usual. In fact, this will be just the third time they've been favored on the road this year and the first by more than 3.5 points. Looking through Southern Utah's season (which admittedly is pretty ugly), you'll see that they are far more competitive at home. 

Though only 3-8 straight up at home, Southern Utah is being outscored by less than one point per game in those contests They average 82.5 PPG in here in Cedar City. Thus I can see them taking advantage of a leaky Eastern Washington defense that permits 76.7 PPG on the road. The Thunderbirds were able to match the oddsmakers projection for the 1st matchup vs. EWU, losing by "only" 15. I realize that included a "garbage time" comeback, but you can look for SUU to shoot a lot better tonight compared to that January game. They finished at just 35.8% at Eastern Washington. At home, they shoot 47.9% overall and 38.0% from three point range. With two games remaining, both at home, the Thunderbirds have a legit shot at finishing outside the Big Sky basement. All they need to do is win once and hope Idaho State loses out. 

I mentioned earlier that Eastern Washington has been a "lucky" team this year. The indespensible KenPom rankings have them as the third luckiest team in the nation. To help illustrate that point, they've gone 5-1 SU in overtime games this year including three wins in games that went to double or triple OT. Saturday's 89-77 win over Idaho State ensured the Eagles will be getting a 1st round bye in the upcoming conference tourney. Yes, they could still conceivably catch North Dakota for the regular season title, but that's unlikely due to North Dakota playing its final two games at home. Eastern Washington is just 5-8 SU in "true" road game this year, thus I certainly would not trust them as a favorite of this magnitude. 10* Southern Utah

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): The two Mountain West teams in question here experienced VERY different results in their respective last games. Of course, that means we can use those to our advantage as the team that experienced the much more unpleasant result (that would be UNLV) is now available at a far more affordable price than they ought to be. The Runnin' Rebels were run right off the court Saturday by Nevada, losing 94-58 here in Las Vegas. It was the Rebels' NINTH straight loss as clearly this program has fallen on hard times. As for Utah State, they are off an 89-58 drubbing of Air Force. Tonight marks the Aggies' regular season finale while UNLV still has one game left, at Fresno State, on Saturday. As bad as things have gotten for the Rebels, it is pretty shocking to see USU in the road favorite role. I'll take the points.

Utah State has nothing to play for here. The Aggies have won their last two games, which has created some distance between themselves and the bottom two in the MWC, San Jose State and UNLV. After a 2-6 SU start in conf play, USU has won five of nine. As I just stated, they've won two straight. One would have to go back to the non-conference portion of the schedule (when they were facing a series of non-board teams) to find the last time the Aggies won three in a row (Dec 6-19). This is just the second time they've been able to pull off B2B conference wins. After winning at San Jose State last Wednesday, the Aggies played by far their most complete game in MWC play, crushing Air Force by 31 in Logan. They shot nearly 60 percent from the field in that game, a far cry from what we've seen most of this season, especially on the road. For the record, the Aggies shoot just 43% from the field away from home and are 3-10 SU in those games. Tonight marks the first (and only) time this year that they will be a road fave.

Like Utah State on Saturday, I'm hoping Senior Night motivates UNLV to their strongest showing of the year. Clearly, it can't get any worse than what happened here on Saturday. Four of the Rebels' last five losses have now come by double digits. They haven't been a good shooting team this year, but recent opponents haven't been missing either. I know it was a 79-63 final when these teams met in Logan two months ago, but will Utah State really make 13 three-pointers again tonight? I think not. I also think that the Aggies may not be fully invested in this game being that it is their reg season finale. 8* UNLV

10* St. Joseph's (7:00 ET): It has been an absolutely miserable season for St. Joe's, one that has seen them lose numerous players to injury. It's a sharp contrast to last year when they were one of the top ATS teams in the entire country. Entering tonight's home finale, the Hawks have lost eight in a row. Saturday's 61-60 loss at St. Louis (were favored by 4.5) was probably the most embarrassing setback of them all. Rather than attempt to tie the game (were down three w/ only seconds remaining), James Demery elected to make a simple layup, leaving his team w/ a one-point loss. The result also leaves St. Joe's tied w/ Duquesne for the bottom spot in the Atlantic 10 Conference. But if there's anything that could provide a little boost to this downtrodden program right now, it's Senior Night. I'll take the points.

Rhode Island provides the opposition for St. Joe's tonight. While they destroyed the Hawks 88-58 in the first meeting (back on 1.3), this is obviously a road game. The Rams have won their L4 A-10 roadies plus are coming off a big 69-59 home victory over VCU on Saturday. They are trying to lock down the #3 seed for the upcoming conference tourney. But might they be coming into this game a little overconfident? Neither they nor their opponents have shot the ball well these L5 games. Remember that this is a team that lost 53-43, at home, to Fordham not that long ago. URI couldn't miss the first time they played St. Joe's, hitting an incredible 16 of 30 three-point attempts. For the year, they average just six makes per game from behind the arc. They'll score a lot less in tonight's rematch. 

While St. Joe's has not won since late January, they've generally been competitive. Four of the previous seven losses have been by seven points or fewer. As bad as things have gotten, this is just the fourth time we find the Hawks getting points at home this year. Not only that, but it will be the MOST points that they've gotten in any home game so far. Rhode Island's win over VCU coupled with their "bubble" status has them overvalued in this situation. 10* St. Joe's

8* Providence (8:30 ET):  Major revenge spot here for the Friars, who lost 64-63 to DePaul earlier in the year, on a last second three-point play. Up until last week, that was the Blue Demons' lone win in Big East play! (They beat Georgetown two points Wednesday). Both teams have been hot at the betting window, Providence especially, but considering the revenge angle and their "bubble status," I expect a rout from the home team here. This is the final home game and Senior Night for Providence, so clearly all the motivational factors you look for, are present here. Lay the points. 

Admittedly, Providence has done most of its damage at the betting window as an underdog. It's not often we find them favored and this will easily be the most points they've been asked to lay to any Big East opponent. But that makes sense given that they are hosting the last place team. They are just 2-2 SU/ATS as a fave in conf play, but did cover the last time in the role, which was a 75-63 home win over Xavier. In that first meeting w/ the Blue Demons, they led by nine at halftime, but were ultimately undone by 20 turnovers. They haven't turned it over that many times in a game since. In Saturday's 73-69 win over Marquette, they rallied from a double digit deficit, a huge win. Seeking revenge for a road loss, the Friars are now 6-1 ATS this season. They have also covered their last seven games overall! 

So DePaul's two conference wins have come by a total of three points. They are being outscored by 11.5 points per game in Big East play and average only 62.7 PPG on the road. Look for them to struggle again offensively tonight as Providence is giving up only 63.8 PPG at home this year. After being competitive in both games last week (lost by only three at home to Seton Hall on Saturday), look for the Blue Demons to revert back to past form. They'd lost five straight by double digits before the win over Georgetown. While a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 games, two of those saw them come in as large underdogs. Providence knows they let one "slip away" the first time these met and isn't about to let that happen again. 8* Providence

8* Creighton (8:00 ET): It is not a good scene right now in Omaha. Creighton's starting point guard Maurice Watson has been arrested for alleged sexual assault and less important is that the team is on a two-game losing streak. This is the backdrop for the home finale tonight against St. John's. Clearly, it would be easy to dismiss the Blue Jays as double digit favorites here, but the contrarian in me sees an opportunity to "buy low." The Blue Jays remain one of the most efficient offenses in the game and note that Watson had actually been out dating back to Feb 6 due to a season-ending knee injury. So while the latest news is very serious, the team had already been w/o him for several games. St. John's does not scare me, particularly on the road. Lay the points.

Now there are signs that missing Watson was significantly hurting Creighton. They've lost five of nine overall, including three of five since his knee injury. But several of those losses were close, most notably a 68-66 loss to Providence last Wednesday, which was the last time the Blue Jays played a home game. Few teams are going to win at Villanova, which is where they played over the weekend. That 79-63 loss is a little misleading in the sense that it was actually a tie game at halftime. The only other time this season that Creighton found itself coming off B2B losses was on January 28th when they routed DePaul. They have covered 14 of their last 18 games against teams w/ a losing record. They come in averaging 84.3 PPG at home and already beat St. John's earlier in the year, 85-72 as seven-point road favorites. 

The road has generally been unkind to the Johnnies. Six of their seven Big East road games have resulted in double digit losses. They are off a win over Georgetown, but that was at home. They can thank 22 Hoyas' turnovers for that one, not to mention the fact they were able to shoot 7 of 13 from three-point range. I would not expect to see a repeat of either of those numbers here tonight against a desperate and motivated Creighton side. In that first meeting, Creighton really dominated and led by 18 at the half. Chris Mullin's bench could be a little thinner than normal here as Darien Williams is questionable w/ an ankle injury. 8* Creighton

10* Virginia (7:00 ET): North Carolina is as hot as any team in the country currently. They should find themselves in the Top 5 when the new poll is released later today. It's been four straight wins and covers for the Tar Heels, one of them being a 65-41 destruction of Virginia in Chapel Hill. Tonight is the rematch at John Paul Jones Arena. The Hoos picked up a much needed win Saturday, turning in one of their better offensive efforts in some time at the expense of hapless NC State. I also happen to fell that Tony Bennett's team is underrated as I still consider them among the top 20 in the country. The revenge angle is strong here and as I suspected might happen UNC comes in as an underserved favorite. Virginia is still the top defensive team in the country. Take the points. 

When these teams met nine days ago in Chapel Hill, it was all Tar Heels. Virginia had an atrocious shooting night, making only 27.8% of their overall field goal attempts, including 2 of 10 from three point range. It was a 65-41 final, a game where UNC was a six-point home favorite. The Virginia offense would again be held below 50 pts in a home loss to Miami last Monday (overtime game!), but then bounced back w/ what was definitely one of the better efforts in sometime. Saturday at NC State saw the Hoos shoot 48.9% overall including a blistering 11 of 16 from three-point range. The team was due to start shooting better and I think Saturday will be a big confidence boost. Defensively, there are no issues here. HC Bennett's "pack line" defense gives up the fewest number of points per game in the country at 55.8. That numbers dips down to 51.1 in home games w/ their oppnents shooting just 36.7%. 

North Carolina followed its win over Virginia by beating Louisville pretty handily last Wednesday. The L'ville game was also at home. Then they went to Pitt on Saturday and won 85-67 as eight-point chalk. Clearly, HC Roy Williams has his team playing well at the right time, but tonight marks the 1st time they've had to play B2B road games in a three day span since ACC play began. Not surprisingly, this will be the 1st time that Virginia has been a home dog all season. In fact, it's been a very long time since they've been a dog to anyone in Charlottesville. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-3 ATS taking points, all of those being road games. This game means more to Virginia than it does North Carolina, who hosts Duke in the reg season finale on Saturday. 10* Virginia

10* UAB (1:00 ET): Middle Tennessee is the top dog in Conference USA and truth be told, one of the few mid-majors capable of winning a NCAA Tournament game this year. But this is going to be a tough spot for them visiting UAB. While they've been off since last Saturday, this will be the Blue Raiders' third consecutive road contest. UAB has also been off for a week and the Blazers will undoubtedly treat this as their biggest game of the year. Not just because it's a visit from MTSU, but also because they're desperate to end a season-worst three game losing streak. Prior to a 60-49 loss on New Year's Day, UAB had covered four straight head to head w/ the Blue Raiders. They were 8.5-pt road dogs in that game, so when you factor in the change in venue, this appears to be a really solid value. Take the points.

Middle Tennessee has lost only one conference game and four games total this season. Three of those losses took place before X-Mas, so overall they've won 14 of 15 w/ the only loss coming by three at insanely hot UTEP. They are coming off a 97-point effort vs. Marshall, which was their highest scoring effort against any D-I opponent all season. However, concerning is that they also allowed the Thundering Herd to score 60 pts - in the second half! That win clinched the #1 seed for the upcoming conference tourney, so the Blue Raiders don't have much to play for here down the stretch. That makes them a shaky bet laying points, particularly on the road. Not only is MTSU 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts, they are 1-4 ATS after scoring 80+ pts. Conference USA has a lot of bad teams, so some of their margins of victory this season aren't really as impressive as you might think.

UAB is just 1-5 SU/ATS in the month of February and they were actually favored in FOUR of those games. So they've certainly been falling short of the oddsmakers' expectations. That's also the case when priced as a dog as their record in that role this season is just 1-6 ATS. But this will be the FIRST time they've gotten points at home all year. They are 10-3 SU here w/ an avg MOV of 13.2 points per game, which is obviously impressive. I view this as an excellent "buy low" opportunity w/ the team shockingly off three straight DD losses. The last two were on the road. Before losing here to Old Dominion on 2.11, the Blazers had won 26 straight C-USA home games! 10* UAB

8* UC Irvine (10:30 ET): I think most people would consider UC Irvine the class of a weak Big West Conference. However, the Anteaters now find themselves in a first place tie w/ UC Davis (both 9-5 SU) after dropping a game on the road Thursday (as 5.5-pt favorites) to Cal State Fullerton, 56-54. It was a game they led by six midway through the second half. Given that they held CS Fullerton to 31.4% from the field for the game, including 4 of 21 from three-point range, it's a game the Anteaters probably feel they "should" have won. An interesting thing I found in breaking down that box score is that while CS Fullerton shot slightly worse than did UC Irvine, they also had 21 more attempts from the field (offensive rebounding!). Rarely do you see a discrepancy like that.

With the Anteaters somewhat desperate to bounce back, the line for tonight's matchup against Cal State Northridge looks far too low to me. Let's start w/ the fact that UC Irvine won the season's first meeting 105-73, on the road! While topping the century mark obviously grabbed the headlines there (season high in points scored), it was also another in a long line of solid efforts on the defensive floor for the Anteaters as well. They held Northridge to just 30.3% shooting for the game. Ranking 37th nationally in points per game allowed (65.1), they allow only 60.6 PPG at home. In terms of field goal percentage defense, the numbers get even more impressive as opponents are shooting only 38.3% against HC Turner's outfit. Meanwhile, CS Northridge's defensive numbers look somewhat horrific in comparison as they allow 81.3 PPG.

Making life even more challenging for the underdog here is that they are now w/o starter Rakim Lubin, who was lost for the season due to an Achilles tear. This will also be the Matadors' second road game in three nights. Thursday, their lousy defense again cost them as they gave up 96 points in an ugly loss at UC Davis. The two road games in three nights scenario tends to be a killer on most College teams more often than not, but having to do so against the top two teams in your league is particularly brutal. Throw in the fact that it's Homecoming tonight on campus and UC Irvine should be extra motivated. It just looks like the oddsmakers were "asleep" in setting a low line for this one. 8* UC Irvine

10* Elon (7:00 ET): Today marks the end of the regular season in the Colonial, so all the home teams should be fairly "fired up" on their respective Senior Days. But none more so than Elon, who is trying to solidify its place among the top four in the upcoming CAA Tournament. The Phoenix are off a heartbreaker Thursday night as they fell here at home in double overtime, 105-104, to Northeastern. They fell prey to a freshman, Bolden Brace, hitting 10 three-pointers in a stunning display that led to a career-high 40 points. Losing at home when you score 81 points in regulation and turn the ball over just three times is pretty frustrating. Luckily, Elon will have Delaware to kick around tonight. The Blue Hens are playing their second road game in three days, having just lost at College of Charleston Thursday. It was their second straight double digit defeat. Lay the points. 

Delaware has just five conference wins, putting them in second to last place, ahead of only Drexel. Three of the wins came in a row earlier this month and one of them came at Elon's expense. It was another OT loss for Elon, this one coming by a score of 76-74 as seven-point chalk. That was also the first of three straight wins that all came by two points or less for Delaware. As alluded to above, they have since regressed w/ B2B double digit losses to William & Mary and Charleston. The road has generally been unkind to the Blue Hens this season as they are just 3-13 SU away from home and getting outscored by about 14 PPG. Looking at the line for the first matchup between these teams and then factoring in the change in venue, this looks to be a really solid value on Elon.

Senior Night should obviously have the home team highly motivated here as should Thursday's loss. In the first go around w/ Delaware, the Phoenix shot only 40.7% from the field. We should see a stark rise in offensive production here as they are averaging 82.3 PPG at home this season. But it's largely been the defensive end of the floor where Elon has been excelled this year, at least in CAA play. They are tops in the conference, holding opponents to just 42.3% from the field. Thursday's game vs. Northeastern marked an "off night" as they allowed the Huskies to shoot 50%, the highest percentage by an opponent during the conf schedule. Previously, they'd held 10 of 11 opponents below 45% from the field. They are 9-1 SU this year when holding the opponent below 40%, not a surprising record, but what is key is that Delaware shoots just 39.9% on the road. Elon is also the top defensive rebounding team in the conference. They are 6-1 ATS this season after allowing 80+ points the previous game, so again, this looks like a clear bounce back spot for them. 10* Elon

10* Cornell (7:00 ET): Penn should probably not be laying points on the road, against anyone. Granted, the Quakers did just win a pair of road games last week, one of them as a favorite (at Brown). But following what is now a four-game SU/ATS win streak, they certainly seem to be a bit overvalued for this trip to Cornell. Tonight marks the first home game for the Big Red in nearly three weeks. They went just 1-3 SU on the road over the L2 weeks, which included an 82-63 loss at Penn, who were 6.5-pt favorites. That certainly makes this line curious by comparison. It was the Quakers fifth straight win and cover in this Ivy League rivalry, so while history may not be on Cornell's side Friday, the law of averages certainly is. Take the points.

Penn was just 7-12 SU overall before this win streak started two weeks ago. Admittedly, it has been a pretty dominant four-game run. After beating Columbia 70-62 at home exactly two weeks ago, the Quakers have rattled off three straight wins by 16 or more points. Against Cornell, they shot 54.7% from the field (Big Red shot 38.9%). Incredibly, the Quakers 42-14 going into halftime. Needless to say, that kind of advantage happens maybe once or twice all season. The sharpshooting continued last week at both Brown and Yale as Penn finished above 50% from the field in both games, including 57.6% against Brown. To call this stretch of hot shooting "surprising" would be an understatement. For the year, the team is just 284th nationally, averaging only 68.7 points per game. Of course, Yale shooting only 32.8% from the floor on Saturday helped as well. 

This year will see the 1st ever conference tournament in the Ivy League. Only the top four teams make it. Right now, Princeton, Harvard and Yale all appear to be sitting pretty. The fourth spot is absolutely still up for grabs. Thanks to the four-game win streak, Penn is now in position to qualify. But lest we forget, a 4-6 SU record in conference play means that the Quakers started 0-6! Cornell is just one game back at 3-7 SU. I expect the Big Red to play a lot better at home where they average 77.9 PPG for the year. Meanwhile, I expect all these road game to start catching up w/ Penn. 10* Cornell

8* Weber State (9:05 ET): This is a big game in Big Sky country. Weber State once the conference, but has suffered two of its three losses over the past four games. The one that really hurt came last Saturday at home to North Dakota. That allowed the Fighting Hawks to take over first place. Weber State trails by just one-half game, so a win here and they are tied, although UND swept the season series. Not far behind is also Eastern Washington, who is 10-4 SU in Big Sky contests, which puts them one game back of Weber State. When these teams met the first time, Weber State was a NINE-point favorite and I just don't think enough has changed since that time to justify the rather massive swing we're seeing here from the oddsmakers. I'll take the points.

Not only has Weber State suffered a pair of SU losses recently; they've also failed to cover the spread in six straight games. This will be just the second time in conference play that they have been an underdog. The first was all the way back on New Year's Eve when they went to Montana (were +2.5) and won 84-81. Remember that these Wildcats opened Big Sky play 4-0 and 9-1. There have been a number of close calls recently, but I just don't see the justification in making this team a dog in this spot, even on the road. There are no significant injuries to speak of. It's not often that I go w/ the road team in College Hoops, but I'll make an exception here as the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS taking points this year. They were 5.5-pt favorites against North Dakota last Saturday. 

By the metrics, Eastern Washington has been one of the luckier teams in the entire country this season. They are an amazing 5-1 SU in overtime games including three wins in games that went to double or triple overtime! Their only loss over the last five games also came at North Dakota. They've since responded w/ a couple blowout wins over a couple of bad teams, Northern Colorado and Idaho. Even there, the Eagles experienced a bit of "luck" as those two teams combined to shoot below 35% from the field. Don't count on that kind of fortune here as Weber State comes in shooting at a 49.5% clip for the year including a lights out 41.9% from three-point range. It took a big second half rally to beat EWU the first time, but still I really disagree w/ this pointspread. 8* Weber State

10* Florida Atlantic (7:00 ET): The rise of UTEP is one of the most "under the radar" stunning things of this entire College Basketball season. Basically "left for dead" at 2-13 SU, the Miners have inexplicably won 9 of 11 and covered 10 consecutive games! I suppose this is somewhat comparable to what the Heat did in the NBA. But like the Heat, the idea of UTEP being a legit threat in Conference USA seems a bit far-fetched. Tonight, they are at Florida Atlantic. It was a one-point game (66-65 UTEP) when these teams met earlier in this season and that was the last time the Miners did NOT cover (were -1). This ATS streak is bound to end and considering the team has lost straight up each of the previous two times it has been on a three-game win streak, tonight looks like the night! 

FAU stopped a three-game losing streak w/ a 94-82 win at lowly Southern Miss Saturday. It was the Owls' highest scoring game of the year against a D-I opponent. They shot 61.2% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. Will they be able to match those numbers tonight? Probably not. But let's give this team some credit. Save for games against the top two teams in their league (Middle Tenn, LA Tech), they have been competitive virtually every time out. Five of their C-USA losses have come by six pts or fewer, two of them in overtime. Earlier in the year though, the Owls went to Ohio State and won in OT! While just 4-8 SU at home this year, the Owls have only been outscored here by an average of 1.2 PPG. They are better than their record shows. 

There's been a stark contrast w/ UTEP when it comes to close games. The Miners' stunning surge has largely been a byproduct of winning a lot of close ones. Of their nine conference victories, five have been by six points or less and three were decided in overtime. Two were one-point games, one of those the win over FAU, a game which did to go OT. That game was decided on a buzzer-beater and was actually the Miners' second straight one-point win in OT at the time. There have been four wins by four points or less for UTEP during the 9-2 SU run. So what I'm saying is that they're due to lose a close one. There's definitely some value here on FAU considering the change in venue as it was a 1-pt spread in El Paso. Again, UTEP has failed to win both times they've been on a three-game win streak this season. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Creighton (9:00 ET): Creighton is off big 87-70 win over Georgetown (shot 53.1%) Sunday, which improved the Blue Jays' record to 22-5 SU on the season. Unfortunately, all five of those losses have come in Big East play and as a result they are still looking up at both Villanova and Butler in the conference standings. Four of the five losses have come over the last month and they are at Nova on Saturday. So, winning tonight is imperative. The Jays host a Providence team which has covered five in a row and eight of its last nine. The Friars are 11-3 ATS as underdogs this season. But this number looks too low to me and as a result, I'm laying the points. Creighton already beat Providence - by 14 - on the road earlier in the season. 

Though Providence has found success at the betting window, road games haven't gone all that well for them. They have the ignominious distinction of being the ONLY Big East team to lose to DePaul this season. They've won just one road game over the last month and that was by one point at Marquette. Having a full week to prepare here may seem like an advantage to some. But I sense the time off is a contributing factor to this line being so low. Remember last Wednesday's 75-63 win over Xavier isn't as impressive as it may seem considering the Musketeers were w/o their two top scorers. At home, the Friars were actually down at the half before pulling away late.

In the first meeting, Creighton's efficient offense was on full display as they shot a blistering 56% from the field. This is one of the nation's top shooting teams, in fact, only UCLA is shooting at a better percentage for the year. They are better than 50% for the year in Big East play, which would be the highest percentage by a conference member since Syracuse in the late 1980's. The sharp shooting is nothing new as in the six years under HC Greg McDermott, the Blue Jays are top five in the nation in both overall and three-point shooting percentage. They're averaging 85.5 points per game this year. Providence, like G'town on Sunday, will have no answer defensively. 8* Creighton

10* Georgetown (7:00 ET): On the surface, DePaul has been competitive - at least by its woeful standards - the L2 games. Though they still lost by an average of 14.5 PPG, the Blue Demons managed to cover against both Villanova and DePaul. But the fact remains this team has just ONE win in Big East play this season (an upset of Providence back on January 10th) and is 0-11 SU away from home. They've been outscored by an average of 13 PPG by conference foes, which has to be a sweet sound for tonight's opponent, Georgetown. The Hoyas are still licking their wounds a bit after being taken behind the proverbial woodshed at Creighton Sunday. But this is a big drop in class for them and one they should handle w/ ease considering they've already beaten DePaul on the road this season. Lay the points.

John Thompson III's bench might be a little shorter tonight w/ two reserves - Bradley Hayes & Tre Campbell - both listed as questionable due to foot and knee injuries, respectively. But it's no matter against this weak opponent that they've beaten six times over the L3 seasons. It's been more than 20 years since DePaul won here. About three weeks ago, the Hoyas won at DePaul. It was only by a three-point margin, but that sets us up well here w/ some good value. G'town was eight-point favorites for that first meeting, so w/ the switch in home court, it certainly appears to be some decent value. Again, DePaul has not won a single game away from home this year. They've been outscored - on average - by 14.8 PPG in those 11 contests. 

If you happened to have DePaul on Sunday, god bless you. A half court heave at the buzzer gave them the cover at Butler. The final score was 82-66 and DePaul was 17.5-point underdogs. They closed the game on an 11-0 run over the final two minutes after trailing by as many as 27. That was thanks to some sloppy play from Butler (turnovers!) and more free throw attempts than they should have been getting. It was a similar story earlier in the week vs. Villanova as the Demons trailed that game 39-18 at the half and again fell behind by as many as 27 in the second. This second road game in four days is the culmination of a brutal stretch for the worst team in the Big East as they just had to play the top three teams, all in a row. G'town had no answers for Creighton's efficient offense on Sunday, but this will be a far easier task, obviously. It should be noted that the Hoyas project to shoot much better tonight from 3-pt range than they did Sunday when they were a woeful 3 of 22. 10* Georgetown

8* Temple (7:00 ET): Temple has lost B2B games as a favorite. Perhaps they were looking forward to this revenge spot against UCF, who beat them by 24 back on New Year's Eve in Orlando. The first of those two outright losses was pretty embarrassing as they fell to lowly East Carolina 78-64 as 6.5-pt chalk. How did that happen? Well, the Owls went ice cold in the second half as they went from a halftime lead (by 1) to a 17-point deficit pretty quickly. Sunday, here at home against UConn, it was a much tighter affair. Again, the Owls blew a halftime lead, this one was six points. They lost on a last second layup (just 2.9 seconds remaining). It was a game they led almost the whole way and by as many as 10 pts in the second half. I look for them to take out their frustrations on UCF tonight. Lay the short number. 

The loss to UConn was actually the second time this season that Temple lost a home game in the closing seconds. The other was against Tulsa back on 1.14. They are already guaranteed just their third losing record in conference play over the L34 seasons because of those two defeats. Injuries also have taken a toll, but here they may actually be the beneficiary of a key absence on the other side. UCF's fourth leading scorer Tanksley Efianayi is listed as questionable due to a knee injury. After missing last Tuesday's game vs. Tulsa entirely, Efianayi played only four minutes at ECU Sunday, a game the Golden Knights won by only three. That game required UCF closing on an 11-2 run just to pull out the SU victory. So they too very easily could have lost to the Pirates.

When these teams met on New Year's Eve, Temple couldn't hit water from the boat. They finished at just 31.2% from the field including an ugly 5 of 25 from three-point range. Aside from a game against a very good SMU team, that is their lowest scoring effort against any American Conference opponent. They were also -20 in FT attempts, not that it mattered in a 77-53 loss. But this time around, it's UCF's shooting I'd be concerned with. The Knights average just 63.9 PPG away from home. They have lost the last five times they've been a road dog of three points or less, covering only once. Meanwhile, Temple is 18-6 ATS the L24 times it has been asked to lay three or less at home. 8* Temple

10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Colorado State visits the famed "Pit" in Albuquerque for a very important Mountain West matchup. The Rams are one of three teams currently tied atop the MWC at 10-4 SU in league play. New Mexico isn't far behind, just 1.5 games off the pace at 9-6 SU. But if they are to catch the top three, winning tonight is probably a neccessity. The homecourt edge may not be what it once was for the Lobos, but it is still strong as is evident by their 10-3 SU record at "The Pit" this season. They are only 3-7 ATS in those games, however, which reflects inflated lines based on their past strong history here at home. But the number is short tonight, probably due to the fact Colorado State is 9-1 ATS in "true" road games. I'm laying the points as the Lobos already beat CSU in Fort Collins earlier this season. 

When New Mexico arrived in Fort Collins for that earlier meeting, they were struggling. They'd lost three in a row. But they responded w/ an outright 84-71 win as four-point underdogs as they shot 55% from the floor. But that game was more notable for the fracas that took place afterwards between a UNM assistant CSU forward Emmanuel Omogbo. So clearly, emotions will be high for this rematch. But the problem from Colorado State's perspective is that there's turmoil from within right now as a report came out three days ago alleging their own HC (Larry Eustachy) berated and intimidated players, creating a "culture of abuse." There have been calls for Eustachy's job, something that is likely to create major distractions moving forward. 

The Rams have won and covered four straight entering tonight, but all of those wins came before the report on Eustachy was released. Normally, having a week off (as CSU has had here) would be a good thing. But this being the 1st time the Rams have taken the court since the report came out may work against them. They do host San Diego State on Saturday, so this may be a bit of a lookahead spot as well. Not so for New Mexico, who is off a loss at Fresno State Saturday. But that was just their third loss in the last nine games. Curiously, two of those losses were to bottom tier MWC teams, but the Lobos also hold road wins over three of the top teams in the league as well. They also average 78.4 PPG here at home. 10* New Mexico

8* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): The MAC West remains one of the most wide-open races in any conference in all of College Basketball. Currently, five of the six teams are separated by just two games. However, of late, it appears as if both Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are determined to play their respective ways out of the race. Northern Illinois has lost four straight, the last two at home and those were killers considering they came against Toledo and Ball State. Not to be outdone, Central Michigan has lost three in a row, the last two also coming at home. Playing one more time in Mt. Pleasant, I can't see the Chippewas losing another home game, thus I'll gladly lay the points in this revenge spot.

You can always expect plenty of points when Central Michigan takes the court. Case in point; they've scored a total of 193 points the L2 games and lost both. Saturday was a painful overtime loss to Ball State, the current MAC West leader, by a score of 109-100. The Chips were a small 2.5-pt favorite for that game. They lost despite Marcus Keene scoring 40 pts for the sixth time in a game this season. He is the nation's leading scorer at 29.8 PPG and as a result CMU is third nationally in points per game at 89.9. They average 95.2 at home. Prior to losing to Buffalo and Ball State over the L7 days, the Chips were 10-1 SU on their home floor. I find it very difficult to believe that a Northern Illinois squad that's averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road can keep pace here.

Back on January 7th, Northern Illinois did beat Central Michigan 87-83 in DeKalb. They did so despite making nine fewer three-pointers than the Chippewas, who also got to the FT line 44x. Shockingly, NIU controlled most of the game. Given the statistical profile, that almost seems impossible. At the time, that was the start of a four-game MAC win streak for the Huskies. But they're only 2-7 SU since w/ one of the wins coming by just a bucket. This is not a good shooting team - at all. They are just 38.7% from the field on the road, including 26.8% from three-point range. They've lost 16 of the past 19 visits to Mt. Pleasant and I can't see them winning this one either. 8* Central Michigan

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): The MAC West is very wide open right now w/ every team besides Eastern Michigan separated by just two games. The two teams in question here are both tied at 7-7 SU in conference play, which is one game behind division leader Ball State. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan have all been fading of late, so this is a very important game as both Toledo and Western Michigan will still get to host Ball State later this month. Toledo is the home team here as well and I love the set up from their perspective. Not only is it a revenge game (lost 90-74 in Kalamazoo last month), but WMU is just awful away from home. The Broncos are 1-13 SU when they're not the home team, which includes four neutral site losses than came by an average of more than 16 PPG. I say lay the number here.

The aforementiond 90-74 loss to WMU stands as Toledo's worst conference loss of the season. Four of the other six have been by six points or less w/ three of those coming by four points or less. The Rockets were actually 4.5-pt favorites when they visited Kalamazoo, so by comparison, this line looks like a steal after factoring in the change in venue. Especially w/ how bad of a road team Western Michigan has been. Toledo comes into tonight having covered four straight w/ the only SU loss during that stretch coming at Akron. They beat Northern Illnois by eight, on the road, Saturday in overtime. However, while they may have needed an extra five minutes to put away the Huskies there, note that the Rockets actually led by as many as 15 in the second half. They shot 54.5% from the field for the game. 

In the first meeting between these teams, Western Michigan shot an insane 70% from the field, also matching that number from three-point range (7 of 10). I assure you that's not a misprint and also they will not be matching that performance here tonight. The Broncos' road woes are actually more attributable to the defensive end, however, as they give up over 80 PPG on better than 50 percent shooting. That's trouble against a Toledo side which is one of the better shooting teams in the entire country and is at 54% overall the L5 games. At home, the Rockets average 82.3 points per game. Toledo's only two home losses this year have come by a TOTAL of three points. I look for the Rockets to be the ones to keep pace tonight in the MAC West. 10* Toledo

8* West Virginia (9:00 ET): Well, Bob Huggins team finally won an overtime game. They entered Saturday 0-3 in OT contests, which accounted for half of their losses this season. It took TWO OT's to dispatch of Texas Tech and while they failed to cover the spread (my ONLY NCAAB loss this weekend), they actually came pretty close, winning the game 83-74. (The closing line was -10). Some may attempt to make the case that this would be a bad spot to lay points w/ the Mountaineers given that they they are only two days removed from a marathon win. But, it's a big drop in class from Texas Tech to Texas and that isn't being properly accounted for by the linesmakers. When WVU went to Austin earlier this year, they were an 11.5-pt choice. Thus, it looks as if we have plenty of value for tonight's rematch when factoring in the change in venue.

I have not attempted to hide my affinity for WVU this season. I think this is one of the top teams in the country and a squad that can make a LOT of noise come Tournament time. They are certainly better than their record. Even at #9 in the country (new poll comes out later today), I feel they are ranked too low. Remember last Monday, they had Kansas "dead to rites" - in Lawrence. At home this season, they are 14-2 SU and outscoring opponents by 24 points per game. It was not easy Saturday vs. Texas Tech, but they outrebounded the Red Raiders, forced 20 turnovers and were able to overcome the opponent shooting a blistering 58% from the field in regulation (held them to 13% in the two overtime periods). I will again mention how big turnovers are for this team; they lead the country in the number forced and differential. 

Texas is highly unlikely to shoot 58% from the floor in this game. Not just because WVU had held its three previous opponents all below 35%, but also due to the fact the Longhorns are a dreadful three-point shooting team. We're talking 30.3% overall from behind the arc (27.1% on the road) for the season. The Longhorns have not won a SINGLE game away from home this year (0-12 SU!) and in doing so, average only 63.8 points per game. They are 330th nationally in three-point shooting and 311th in foul shooting. They played surprisingly well in Austin against the Mountaineers, but that won't be the case here. 8* West Virginia

10* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): The sadists that run the Sun Belt have done it again as all four road teams Monday are playing away from home for the second time in three days. The only one of the four being asked to lay points is TX-Arlington, who not coincidentally is also the only one of the four that won Saturday. The Mavericks should probably be considered the SBC's best team at this point, though by no means is that a definitive distinction. Tonight they face one of the two teams that's just one-half game off the lead, that being Ga Southern. TX-Arlington was a very fortunate winner Saturday at Georgia State, so they could easily be coming into this game - perhaps the biggest in the remainder of the SBC reg season - off a loss. I'll take the points w/ the home dog.

TX-Arlington won Saturday by hitting a 35-foot shot w/ just two seconds left. The final score was 68-67 at Georgia State and as I said, they should feel very fortunate to have won that game. Not only because of the last second shot from Eric Neal, but also because - as a team - they shot just 35.5% from the field. Sure, we should probably expect that number to improve here. But, by how much? For the year, the Mavericks are shooting a woeful 30.8% from three-point range when away from home. All six of their losses have been "true" road games this year. Half of those have been as favorites vs. conference foes. Here they'll have to deal w/ an offense which averages a very impressive 85.5 PPG on its home floor. The result of that average is Georgia Southern is 10-1 SU in Statesboro. 

Georgia Southern also won a close one Saturday, beating Texas State 70-67. Though they did not hit their season average in points per game, they did shoot the ball well. I talked about the likelihood of TX Arlington shooting better tonight than they did in the last game. Well, similarly, we should probably expect an increase in point production from the home side as well. A big difference in the last games from these respective teams was game control. Aside from the final score, TX Arlington never led in the second half. Georgia Southern led Texas State the whole way, by as many as 17. The Bulldogs' lone home loss of the season came all the way back on Dec 4, by three, against Florida Gulf Coast. By the way, this is also Senior Night on campus as it's the final reg season home game for GSU (next three all on the road). Expect a very motivated team and a raucous crowd. 10* Georgia Southern

10* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): Count me among the group that is not a strong believer in Maryland. Yes, the Terps are an impressive 22-4 SU overall, including 10-3 SU in Big 10 play. But they've had a tremendous amount of good fortune along the way, namely a 9-3 SU record in games decided by six points or less. The majority of those close wins came early in the season, thus we've already started to see some regression to the mean in this department, including a pair of losses to open February. They did just win at Northwestern (as 2.5-pt pups) on Wednesday, improving to an unfathomable 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (10-1 straight up!). But this stands as their toughest test to date as they face one of the two teams in their league that I have rated as clearly better. I'll call for Maryland's incredible streak as an underdog to come to an end here. Lay the points.

Wisconsin is currently tied w/ Maryland at 10-3 SU in Big 10 play, so the winner here will move into a first place tie w/ Purdue, who won Saturday. To me, Purdue and Wisconsin are the class of this league and there's a gap between them and the field. They are the only teams worthy of the Top 25 in the Big 10 in my estimation. However, the Badgers are coming into this big game a little wounded, both literally and figuratively. Literally in the sense that Bronson Koenig is still battling a lower leg strain that caused him to miss the Michigan game on Thursday. Figuratively in that the team has now dropped B2B games w/ a pair of sub-60 pt performances. They fell here in Madison (rare home loss!) to Northwestern last Sunday, then w/o Koenig fell at Michigan.

Thursday marked the first time in his career Koenig missed a game. Reports are that he practiced Friday. His status is still listed as questionable for today. But regardless if he suits up or not here, I'm on the Badgers. Though a senior and an important cog on the team, Koenig is NOT Wisconsin's best player. They'd actually been winning despite some subpar individual performances from him prior to the injury sidelined him. The Michigan game was neck and neck w/o him throughout and that was on the road. This is the first time all season that the Badgers have dropped B2B games. I should point out that the N'western game marked their 1st and only home loss of the season. They are 13-1 SU at the Kohl Center, outscoring foes on average by 21.8 points per game! I'll bank on that defense that is holding foes to just 55.8 PPG here to "rule the day." After he scored a career-high 32 points in the last game, Maryland start Melo Trimble should come back down to Earth here. 10* Wisconsin

10* UCLA (10:00 ET): While I admittedly have some concerns about UCLA (specifically, their poor defense) come NCAA Tournament time, I have far more concerns regarding their rival, USC. This may seem like a lot of points to lay in a rivalry game, but it's telling that USC remains unranked despite just five losses this season and playing in a Power 5 Conference. I actually do not consider them one of the top 50 teams in the country, let alone the top 25. Therefore, I've got no issue laying this number w/ a Bruins team that is among the best in the country offensively and well rested, playing its third straight home game.

I should bring up that this is a revenge spot for UCLA. One of their three losses this season came on January 25th at USC, 84-76 as seven-point chalk. At that time, they were coming off a loss to Arizona, which remains the only time they've dropped a home game all year. They actually shot much better overall than the Trojans in the first meeting, but the difference was USC making 14 three-pointers compared to just six for the Bruins. That +24 margin from behind the arc is what enabled the Trojans to pull the upset. That was a season-high for them. UCLA also committed 17 turnovers (a season worst for them) and the 76 points still stands as the fewest they've scored in any Pac 12 game this season. This is a team that averages 91.9 points per game, which is the most in the country, and that average jumps to 94.6 PPG at home!

This spread looks like a great value considering what UCLA was asked to lay in the first meeting, on the road. Their average margin of victory here at home is 20.1 PPG. Since losing to USC, they've won four straight, three of those by 16 points or more. The latest came Sunday vs. Oregon State, 78-60. Lonzo Ball again led the way in that one w/ 22 pts and nine assists. The Bruins were actually held to just 32 points in the first half, a season-low, but still won comfortably. Having not played since Sunday, they should be rested and ready for tonight. USC has been off since last Saturday when they lost at Oregon, 81-70. It's easy to see this team's 9-2 SU record away from home this season and think the points are a bargain, but the Trojans have been quite fortunate throughout the year. UCLA gets its revenge in a major way. 10* UCLA

8* Oregon (3:00 ET): The seventh ranked Ducks have lost only two Pac 12 games all season. One was at UCLA last week, a game where they blew a double digit halftime lead. The other, also on the road, came against Colorado. They'll look to avenge that one this afternoon and with the national TV cameras present here in Eugene, I expect a highly motivated favorite. Oregon has been unbeatable here at home this season - literally - as in they're 16-0 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 21.1 points per game. This being the second road game in three days (dreaded spot for Pac 12 teams) does Colorado no favors here. Lay the points. 

Oregon was a 6.5-point favorite when they ventured into Boulder last month. While oddsmakers certainly have to account for the result of that game, it still appears (to me) that the Ducks are a bargain here at this price. As you probably know, the effect of home court advantage is quite drastic in college basketball. I already meNtioned Oregon's perfect home record. Well, Colorado is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games. One of those wins came Thursday at Oregon State, who is winless in conference play. I played against the Buffs in that game and it was tooth and nail most of the way. They even trailed at halftime. In my analysis, I called it a "sandwich spot" as CU was off a blowout win Sunday over Washington State (81-49) and had this higher profile game on deck. I think I was proven right.

The first meeting between these teams marked Oregon's worst offensive effort to date in conference play. It also tied their lowest scoring game of the season. It's one of just three games they failed to score at least 70 points. Here in Eugene, they average 82.8 points per game. Aside from one bad half against UCLA, the Ducks have been pretty close to perfect the L4 games. They absolutely destroyed Arizona on this floor, 85-58, two weeks ago. Thursday, it was a 79-61 win over Utah. They shot 53.4% for the game and led by 16 at halftime. Oh by the way, it's not just this season that Oregon is dominating at home. They've won 41 STRAIGHT TIMES here, which is the nation's longest home win streak! The two teams they've beaten over the L7 days (USC, Utah) are both better than Colorado, a team that lost its first seven Pac 12 games. 8* Oregon

8* Ohio (2:00 ET): One might make the argument here that Ohio is in store for a letdown after pulling B2B upsets on the road. But not I. Really, it's been pretty remarkable what the Bobcats have been able to do since losing leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year. I had them when they hosted MAC leader Akron two weeks ago. They won that game convincingly, 85-70, handing the Zips their first conference loss of the season. After that was a letdown here in Athens w/ OU losing (as nine-point chalk) to Central Michigan. But since then, they've won twice on the road - both times as dogs - beating Ball State and Eastern Michigan. Both wins were relatively close, but one that was not came back on January 28th when they destroyed today's opponent, Bowling Green, 96-72. That was w/o Campbell and as seven-point chalk. Thus, the Bobcats look like a bit of bargain here. 

Bowling Green, as you might surmise, is not a good team. They've lost both games over the past week, both by double digits. The latest came at Western Michigan by a score of 89-79. The Falcons were seven point underdogs in Kalamazoo, but even the oddsmakers can't help when you continue to play poor defense. BGSU has now allowed six of its last seven opponents to score at least 82 points while only one of the last six hasn't shot 51.9% from the floor or better. For the season, the team is allowing over 80 PPG away from home and that's a big reason they are just 2-9 SU in such games. Last Saturday, they allowed Buffalo (who is not a great team) to shoot 63.5% from the floor! If the Falcons shoot anywhere close to what they did in the first meeting w/ Ohio, then they are in major trouble yet again.

In that first meeting, Ohio held BGSU to just 33.3% from the floor including 7 of 34 from three-point range. Consider that Ohio made only TWO free throws the entire game (went to the line just 7 times!) and still won by 24 on the road. Of course, it helped that they shot 53.5% from the floor including 18 of 35 from three-point range. Bowling Green's track record indicates that the Bobcats may be able to match those numbers here this afternoon. Again, that win came w/o Campbell in the lineup. Ohio is 5-1 ATS its last six times laying between 9.5 and 12 points in Athens, including a perfect 2-0 this season. This line should be higher. 8* Ohio

10* West Virginia (2:00 ET): This matchup has many elements you look for in handicapping College Basketball. First off, WVU is going to be in an ornery mood in its return to Morgantown after blowing a huge lead late at Kansas Monday. They lost in overtime (still covered), a game they will certainly rue for some time. But I anticipate HC Bob Huggins channelling what happened in a positive direction. This is also a revenge spot for the Mountaineers, who lost by one down in Lubbock earlier this season. At home, WVU has destroyed opponents to the tune of a 25.0 PPG margin. For this afternoon's rematch, they are catching the Red Raiders right after an upset of Baylor on Monday. The revenge angle is strong here and I anticipate a blowout. Lay the points. 

With less than three minutes to go, West Virginia led Kansas by 14 points Monday. Again, that was in Lawrence. They held the Jayhawks to 34.4% shooting for the game. It is almost inexplicable that they ended up losing. Still, as disappointing a result as that may be, I still view this team as one of the very best in the country. Defensively, we all know about the press that forces opponents into turning the ball over at a high rate. But the Mountaineers have also held four of their last five opponents below 50% shooting including the last three all under 35%! Texas Tech has done a good job of not turning the ball over lately, but I question that ability in this environment. Their road record is just 1-6 SU and a big reason for that is their overall shooting numbers drop dramatically.

The Red Raiders upset Baylor Monday thanks to some strong shooting (51%). But I don't see them being that sharp here having to deal with the West Virginia press. Remember that the 1st meeting went to overtime w/ the score tied 67-67 at the end of regulation. Again, while Texas Tech has been careful w/ the ball lately, they are facing a deep team that leads the country in turnovers forced and turnover margin. It will be a whole different animal facing the Mountaineers in Morgantown where as mentioned earlier, the home team is bludgeoning opponents, outscoring them on average 90.9 to 65.9. Also consider that three of West Virginia's losses this year have come in overtime. They are better than the overall record and still a top 5 team in my estimation. 10* West Virginia

8* Wichita State (12:00 ET): Northern Iowa got off to an uncharacteristically terrible start in Missouri Valley play, losing its first five conference games. Needless to say, the faithful are not used to seeing those kind of results. However, there has been somewhat of an incredible turnaround in Cedar Falls w/ the Panthers winning 9 of their last 10, the only loss coming on the road to second place Illinois State. UNI is seeking to become the 1st team in MVC history to start conference play 0-5 SU or worse and still finish above .500. They may very well achieve that, but this afternoon is a tall order as they visit the top team in the league, Wichita State. The Shockers have lost only one MVC game all year, also at Illinois State, and they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.8 PPG. Northern Iowa has been hot, but lay the points here.

It's pretty ridiculous that Wichita State is not ranked in the Top 25. The Shockers are 24-4 SU overall and two of those losses, to Michigan State and Louisville, took place back in November. Last time I played them was the revenge spot against Illinois State and they destroyed the Redbirds 86-45 here at home. Since then, they've continued to roll, posting three more double digit victories. The latest came Wednesday at Southern Illinois where they won 87-68, covering the 13.5-pt spread. They shot 55.6% from the floor, which will be a difficult number to duplicate here, but then again the Shockers are one of the top shooting teams in the country and above 50% at home where they are destroying opponents by an average of 27.3 points per game. I just don't see how this team isn't considered among the 15 best in the country right now.

When Northern Iowa opened conference play 0-5 SU, one of those losses came at the hands of Wichita State. It was an 80-66 loss as 10.5-pt home underdogs. Using that line and result as a baseline, the favorite sure looks undervalued here, don't they? I realize that the Panthers have seemingly turned their season around, but the majority of the wins have come at the expense of the bottom of the league, which is very weak. When facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG (WSU averaging 81.8), UNI is 0-9 ATS this season. A big reason for that record is that they are averaging only 63.3 PPG for the year and an ugly 59.8 PPG on the road. Incredibly, during Wichita State's current nine-game win streak, only one of the wins haven't been by at least 15 points! 8* Wichita State

8* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider's record (14-13 SU overall, 7-9 in MAAC) won't cause you to do cartwheels, but the Broncs most definitely have been competitive of late. Therefore, at home tonight, I anticipate them beating a Canisius team they already took care of on the road earlier in the year. Rider has covered three straight and in both SU losses, they lost the lead in the final two minutes. They led Fairfield on the road Monday night, but could not hold on as they went cold down the stretch. They still covered though, as four-point dogs, losing only 69-67. That came after an insane 112-107 win last Saturday over Quinnipiac here at home. No, there was no overtime. Also, last week saw the Broncs play Monmouth (MAAC's top team) tough, losing by only five. Take the points as I believe the home team will finish off a season sweep here.

Canisius comes off an 89-83 home win over Iona where they were slight one-point favorites. They are now two games up on Rider in the conference standings. The game w/ Iona was tied in the late stages before the Golden Griffins closed on a 6-0 run. However, I remain concerned about this team's defense, or rather lack of it. Somehow they have managed to go 9-6 SU, 10-4-1 ATS on the road despite allowing an average 83.7 points per game! Each of their last five opponents - and seven of the last eight - have shot 50% or better from the field. Rider may be w/o assist leader Stevie Jordan, but they still have four other double digit scorers on the roster. Twice the Golden Griffins have been road chalk in MAAC play and both times they lost the game outright. Those were against bottom tier teams Niagara and Quinnipiac, both of whom are looking up at Rider in the MAAC standings. 

When Rider won at Canisius earlier in the year, they shot exactly 50% from the floor in a 72-66 upset as 6.5-pt dogs. Using that number as our baseline and factoring in the switch in home court advantage, you'd certainly think the Broncs would deserve to be a slight home favorite for the rematch, especially considering they won SU the first go around. Something to note is that they pulled that upset despite making only two three-pointers the entire game! They are now 4-1 SU/ATS the L5 meetings vs. Canisius and 16-3 SU the L19 times hosting them. Rider sees its scoring average jump all the way up to 80.4 PPG here at home, so I see another strong offensive showing tonight. 8* Rider

10* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for Loyola Marymount here. They are venturing into St. Mary's right after the Gaels lost for the just the second time in conference play. That loss did take place here at home, against rival Gonzaga on Saturday. The Gaels played the Zags tough, but ultimately came up short (by 10 points) on the scoreboard. Both WCC losses so far have come to Gonzaga. Otherwise, St. Mary's has taken care of business in conference play w/ 11 of its 12 wins coming by double digits. One of those came all the way back on December 29th as they beat Loyola Marymount on the road, 72-60 as 11.5-pt chalk. I suppose you could make the case that this is a big number to lay after suffering a disappointing loss, but SMC has had adequate time to get over what happened on Saturday. Lay the points.

Loyola Marymount had the misfortune of playing Gonzaga two days before St. Mary's did. They lost by 30, at home. If you're going to make the case that the Lions might take advantage of a letdown here from the Gaels, then you probably would have also argued that they should have taken advantage of a lookahead spot last week. That clearly didn't happen. Loyola did win its next game, 66-60 over Portland on Saturday, but the Pilots are a very bad basketball team. I mean really bad. As in their last win was December 31st. St. Mary's beat them 74-33 here at home. Note Loyola is also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less their last game. Also troubling for the Lions is that they've shot worse than 40% from the field in three consecutive games. As I'm about to get into, St. Mary's can be a very staunch team defensively. 

There was a game two weeks ago where St. Mary's allowed just 27 points. Not in a half, but in a GAME. That was at San Diego on Feb 4. For the year, the team is giving up just 56.6 PPG, which is second best in the nation, trailing only Virginia. Besides Gonzaga, only one WCC team has been able to score 70 against the Gaels and that was Pacific, who hit it right on the nose. St. Mary's average margin of victory here at McKeon Pavillion is 15.8 points per game. Against a below average foe like Loyola Marymount, they should be able to top that. The only team besides Gonzaga that came in here and won this season was TX-Arlington. That was all the way back in the second game of the season. After a couple of bad shooting performances last week, the Gaels should rebound here against a team which allows its opponents to make 48.8% of its field goal attempts (38.6% from 3-pt range) on the road. 10* St. Mary's

8* Oregon State (9:00 ET): There's no sugarcoating the fact that this has been an awful season up in Corvallis. Not only has Oregon State yet to win a single conference game (0-13 SU!), but they have been w/o their best player, Tres Tinkle (coach's son), ever since January 7th due to a wrist injury. The result has been them getting outscored by an average of 16.7 PPG by Pac 12 foes. Most of the games, as you can tell, have not been close. But one that was took place at the end of January at Colorado. There, the Beavers were able to stay within the generous 18-pt spot, losing only 85-78. The rematch is tonight and it seems as if the oddsmakers still haven't learned their lesson as, now on the road, CU is still laying too many points given that they are a below average Pac 12 team. Furthermore, this is hardly a great spot for the Buffs. They're in off a blowout win on Sunday and have a far "bigger" game on deck, at Oregon, later this week. Take the points. 

Oregon State actually has a history of playing Colorado tough, at least here in Corvallis. They've both won and covered the spread in five of the past six meetings here, including LY's 60-56 win as three-point favorites. There haven't been many Pac 12 wins since, but at least the Beavers can enter w/ some confidence knowing they've been able to at least hang w/ the Buffs recently. They were also able to hang w/ UCLA, at least most of the way, on Sunday. Taking on one of the league's top teams, OSU actually led late in the first half and held the Bruins to a season-low 32 1H pts. The 78-60 final is a bit misleading, although UCLA pulled away halfway through the second half. But still, OSU stayed within the number (+25.5) the whole game. 

Colorado dominated Washington State on Sunday, winning 81-49 as 12.5-pt home favorites. It was their second straight game scoring 81 pts on better than 50% shooting. But both of those games took place in Boulder. The Buffaloes have just one Pac 12 road win this season and it came at Stanford back on 2.2. They are 0-6 SU otherwise. One key reserve, Deleon Brown, may be out tonight as he sustained a concussion Sunday. CU is only 5-10 ATS this year when laying points. As mentioned above, they'll be at Oregon this weekend, a date that they players and coaching staff are probably pointing to alot more than this one. The Buffs are also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less in the previous game. Coming off a blowout like that has inflated this line. 8* Oregon State

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): The Hoosiers are in a bad way right now. Some of that had to do w/ losing leading scorer James Blackmon. But Blackmon was back on the court Sunday when the team lost 75-63 to Michigan at Assembly Hall. It was their fifth loss in the last six games and the one win during that stretch was against Penn State and required three overtimes. So you would actually have to go all the way back to a January 21st home victory over Michigan State to find the last time this squad won a game in regulation. That sounds bad and I realize the road record isn't good (1-5 SU/ATS), but let us not forget this is a team that beat BOTH Kansas and North Carolina this year. Time to get back on track tonight. Take the points.

Minnesota is one of a handful of Big 10 teams I believe to be highly overrated (Maryland and Northwestern are the others). The Gophers actually ended January on a five-game losing streak. While they've certainly turned things around here in February (won three in a row), the competition has been weaker. Saturday saw them go to last place Rutgers and prevail 72-63. The Scarlet Knights shot the ball terribly and didn't rebound as well as they normally do. That was the Gophers second straight Big 10 road win, but they've come at the expense of the bottom two teams. The other was 68-59 at Illinois back on Feb 4, another game where they benefited from poor opponent shooting (38.1%). In between, there was a VERY fortuitous cover here at home against Iowa. That game, which went to double overtime, actually saw the Gophers cover as seven-point favorites, 101-89.

Minnesota is just 6-6 SU in league play and will have trouble containing this offense. Indiana comes in averaging over 80 PPG and is also a top 36 team nationally in rebounding. Lately, the offense has struggled, but that's had a lot to do w/ Blackmon. He's gone just 5 of 21 from the field in two games since returning to the lineup. That's gotta improve, right? With everyone starting to write off the Hoosiers, I feel now is the perfect opportunity to jump on board? I can see an outright upset here as these teams would be rated relatively even on a neutral floor. Even with the homecourt edge, Minnesota is favored by too much. 10* Indiana

8* Butler (8:30 ET): St. John's has covered five straight games, the latest being a minor upset of Seton Hall (at home) on Saturday. Meanwhile, Butler is off an outright loss at Providence (were three-point favorites). That and the fact that the Johnnie's upset the Bulldogs in the first meeting of the year have created some much needed value on the favorite tonight. Consider that Butler was an eight-point favorite in NYC when they lost to the Red Storm, 76-73, back on December 29th. That game saw St. John's shoot 54% from the floor, their best mark to date in conference play and well above their season-long average of 43.8%. HC Chris Mullin has - somewhat shockingly - turned things around here, but his team is due to get blown out. Lay the points.

Butler is considered to be a NCAA Tournament team right now, but losing at Providence Saturday certainly won't help their cause. The team is still ranked in the Top 25 mind you (#24), even though they've lost three of four. That was after an 18-3 start though that included an 11-0 SU mark at home. The Bulldogs have actually lost B2B home games - to Georgetown and Creighton - as they allowed both of those teams to shoot the lights out. But usually it's Butler that has no issue scoring here in Hinkle Fieldhouse. They average 79.8 PPG on 50.0% shooting here. I expect the team's leading scorer Kelan Martin (15.4 PPG) to have a bounce back effort tonight after totaling only 20 pts in the L3 games. Notable is the Bulldogs' 3-1 SU/ATS record this year off a Big East loss.

St. John's had a full week off prior to winning Saturday. Their opponents (Seton Hall) were coming off a pair of overtime wins, so certainly it was an ideal spot for the Red Storm. Another key in winning that game was turnover margin. They forced 18 and converted those into 30 points. Meanwhile, they turned it over only eight times themselves. Maybe they've simply been undervalued, but the bottom line is that the only two times St. John's has been favored in league play this year came against last place DePaul. The market catches up with them tonight.  8* Butler

8* East Carolina (7:00 ET): This is most definitely a tricky spot for the road favorite, Temple. Not only are the Owls playing the second of B2B road games, they pulled an upset in the first leg, beating Temple 74-62 as six-point dogs Sunday. It's a shorter turnaround compared to their opponent as East Carolina last played Saturday. Admittedly, ECU isn't exactly in the finest form right now (lost 9 of 11). But the Pirates are 10-4 SU at home where they hold their opponents to just 58.4 points per game. Furthermore, there's a little value on them for this rematch as in the 1st meeting w/ Temple, they were nine-point road underdogs. Yes, there had to be adjustment after losing the game 81-62, but the market has swung too far against ECU here. Take the points. 

Even after beating Memphis, Temple is still near the bottom of the American, just one place ahead of East Carolina. The Owls entered Sunday at just 4-8 SU in conference play, so I question how worthy they are of laying points on the road. This will be just the second time as road chalk this year in conf play. They pushed the 1st time, winning 79-71 at Tulane, who is worse than East Carolina. Sunday in Memphis, the Owls won due a strong close to the first half. They actually trailed 23-14 early before going on an 18-0 run over an 8:42 span. That run essentially decided the game. Like I said earlier though, this is not your typically strong Temple squad. They've been outscored by about four points per game in conference play and particularly concerning here is that they are 0-4 ATS off an conference win this year. 

East Carolina did not shoot the ball well in the first meeting with Temple (3 of 14 from three-point range). The Pirates aren't a great shooting team to begin with, so that's hardly a surprise. Still, we should see improvement at home tonight. But the real improvement should come on the defensive end. That's a really impressive number that they're holding visitors to here at home. Note they held Cincinnati to just 55 pts in their visit last month. The Pirates have covered five of the last seven games overall. A big key here is that leading scorer BJ Tyson, who has been out w/ a knee injury, could be back on the floor for the first time since Jan 11. He was in uniform (but did not play) for Saturday's disappointing road loss to USF (ECU were 2-pt favorites). ECU did beat Temple here in Greenville last season in a near identical price range. 8* East Carolina

8* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Fordham, like the team we played against yday (Marist), is not a good team. Thus I can't see why anyone would endorse them, even in this price range. The Rams may not be the worst team in the Atlantic 10 this year, but as per usual they're near the bottom of the league. Their only win over the L5 games was a double OT affair at St. Joe's. Tonight, they'll travel to Rhode Island to face another group of Rams, this one better and likely more angry. The Rhodies lost here at home their last time out, 75-74 to Dayton, a result which knocked them 2.5 games behind the conference leaders. The Rams are most certainly a "bubble team" right now in the eyes of the selection committee and really could use a blowout win in this spot. They'll get it. 

Any time a team loses by a single point at home, there's going to be a feeling of disappointment. But for Rhode Island last Friday, they REALLY had to be kicking themselves. They led a good Dayton team 73-69 w/ just 24 seconds left, but let it slip away despite holding the Flyers to 41.1% shooting for the game. That's a scenario where you HAVE to close. Two losses to the Flyers (by a combined five points) may ultimately sink URI's postseason hopes, but the bottom line is this team had won and covered four in a row prior to Friday's setback. Those four wins all came by a remarkably consistent 8 to 12 pt margin against the "middle class" of the A-10. This is a matchup w/ a bottom tier team that the should win by a larger margin. Friday was just the second home loss of the year for the Rams, who are outscoring visitors by 12.2 PPG to begin with this year. 

Fordham only averages 62.5 PPG on the road, so they'll have trouble keeping pace tonight. This will be their only meeting w/ Rhode Island this season, but the Rams should take it very seriously considering they actually lost at Fordham last year. But at home, URI won by 16. Both games saw Rhode Island shoot better than 50% from the floor. Given that scoring average, it should be no surprise that Fordham doesn't shoot the ball away from home. They're at 39.6% for the year. They also can't stop their opponents, particularly from three-point range. The fact they let home teams shoot 43.1% from behind the arc is really alarming. Rhode Island may just be 2-8 SU against the top 100 of the RPI, but they are 14-0 SU against everyone else. 8* Rhode Island

10* St. Peter's (7:30 ET): Marist is a very bad basketball team. They have just three conference wins this season, the last one coming all the way back on January 16th against Niagara. Since then, it's been seven straight MAAC losses, five of them by coming by double digits. One of those five was to tonight's opponent, St. Peter's, an 81-65 loss that took place at home. Tonight, they head to Jersey City as decided underdogs and I don't see this game going well for them. St. Peter's, playing a pretty road-heavy schedule of late, has covered six of its last seven games and were it not for an an abundance of close losses, they'd be right there w/ Monmouth, challenging for the MAAC regular season title. I see them "putting the boots" to the underdog in this one. Lay the points.

Incredibly, five of St. Peter's six conference losses have been by three points or less. While five of their last six games overall have taken place on the road, ironically it was the one home game that that accounts for their lone ATS loss during that stretch. They fell at the buzzer, 72-70 to Canisius, as three-point favorites. That and a two-point home loss to Niagara last month really sting. The Peacocks have also recently lost by just a single point at Monmouth in overtime. That was after beating the MAAC leaders here at home, 71-61, earlier in the year. But let's talk about what the Peacocks do well, shall we? Last week, they went 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, crushing both Quinnipiac and Manhattan by a combined 48 points. Sunday in Manhattan, they shot 56% from the floor and never trailed. This is also a very good defensive team. They allow just 62.6 PPG, which is 14th best in the country. 

While SPU went 2-0 on the road last week, Marist was 0-2 at home. The Red Foxes lost by 20 to Fairfield and then by seven to Siena. Unlike tonight's opponent, they do not defend well. On the road, Marist gives up an alarming average of 80.1 points per game. They've also shot just 37.2% from the floor over the last five games. On the road, they are just 2-12. Here they'll have to contend with the fact that St. Peter's is 12-4 ATS in conference play and 6-1 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 pts or less. I think a decent case could be made that St. Peter's is a major darkhorse come conference tourney time. These teams are in completely different classes right now. 10* St. Peter's

8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Friday, Eastern Michigan failed to do what Ohio did the week prior. That's beat Akron at home. The Eagles fell for a fourth consecutive time as the Zips shot a blistering 52.9% from the floor. That 87-76 final was EMU's sixth loss in the last seven games and after leading the MAC East at one point, the Eagles are now just 13-12 SU on the season. Meanwhile, Ohio has had an interesting L4 games, alternating a pair of upsets w/ SU losses as a favorite. After being Akron two Saturdays ago, the Bobcats fell at home (as 9-pt favorites) to Central Michigan. They responded by pulling a minor upset at Ball State on Friday, 79-77 as 1.5-pt dogs. I just can't envision Eastern Michigan losing again here, especially considering they're at home, so I'll lay the very short number. 

Though I was on Ohio when they beat Akron (Zips' 1st MAC loss of the season), I warned that this was not the same team we saw at the start of the season. That's because they lost leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year (knee injury) back on January 20th. Again, the team has alternated wins and losses in the six games w/o him, three times losing SU as a favorite. Another of their three remaining double digit scorers, Kenny Kaminski, was injured in the last game. However, he may still play here. But what Bobcats' backers need to be concerned about here is their team gives up 76.8 PPG on the road. Also, it was an awful shooting night the first time they faced EMU this season. In an ugly 53-49 loss, Ohio shot just 30% from the floor. That was at home w/ Campbell in the lineup, mind you. Another troubling sign is Ohio's propensity to blow big leads. Twice in the L4 games, they've lost a lead of at least 18 points. They actually blew all of a 25-pt lead Friday at Ball State before pulling out the two-point victory. 

Eastern Michigan also needs to be concerned about its defense. They've allowed two straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor and on Friday, Akron hit 18 three-pointers against them. Ohio can be a deadly three-point shooting team as well, but we've already see the Eagles put the clamps down on them once. What EMU need not worry about here is their offense, which averages 87.0 PPG here in Ypsilanti. Note Ohio actually led EMU 26-19 at the half in the 1st meeting, so that's another blown lead. Having lost four in a row, Eastern Michigan is a desperate team here. I see them picking up their first home win since 1.17 tonight. 8* Eastern Michigan

8* LA Lafayette (8:00 ET): Maybe more than any other conference in America, the Sun Belt seems to take perverse enjoyment in making its members play two road games over the span of three days. (Note: The Pac 12 typically does this a lot too, only Thurs-Sat). Tonight, South Alabama is forced to do the deed after pulling out a three-point win at LA Monroe on Saturday. This will actually be the Jaguars' third consecutive road game, they won the 1st too (at Troy, 76-71, as six-point underdogs), so this is an attempt at a somewhat improbable sweep. Prior to the trip starting, the team was just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year. They'll be visiting LA Lafayette, who just lost their fourth game in a row Saturday, at home, to Troy. Given situation and circumstance, I'll back the Ragin Cajuns here. Lay the points. 

LA Lafayette is just 4-8 SU in conference play, but the majority of losses have been close. Four have come by five points or less. Now they did just give up 100+ pts for a second time. Troy hit the century mark on the nose thanks to a career-high 31 pts from Jordan Varnado. The 100-88 final was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was a six-point game in the final 30 seconds. (Troy made 12 of 14 FT's in the final 1:19). Defensive ineptitude aside, the Ragin Cajuns can score, especially here at home. They average 87.4 PPG here at the Cajundome, so it's actually pretty head-scratching that they've lost four times here. Prior to the loss to Troy, the team had lost B2B road games - both by four points or less.

South Alabama has covered four in a row, their only loss during that time coming by just three points at Georgia State. So it would appear to the "naked eye" that these are two teams trending in opposite directions. However, considering that the Jaguars average only 69.8 PPG on the road, it's right to question just how they'll be able to keep pace here. The team's overall field goal percentage has also been up of late and is thus likely to start regressing back to the mean (42% for the year) sooner rather than later. Both recent road wins were close for USA; on Saturday they faced the last place team in the conference and won by only three. That snapped a seven-game losing streak to Monroe, so there could be a bit of a letdown here in what shapes up as a tough spot anyway. 8* LA Lafayette

8* Virginia (6:30 ET): In past analysis, I have not hid my affection for HC Tony Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers. The Hoos are off perhaps their finest win of the year here having downed Louisville 71-55 on Monday. That was in Charlottesville and a much needed performance after dropping two of their previous three (both losses by 4 pts or less). Here, they'll hit the road to face a team they recently destroyed in Charlottesville, that being Va Tech, who found itself on the wrong end of a 71-48 beatdown back on Feb 1. As a result, the number for tonight's rematch is obviously a bit inflated, but in my opinion it is still not high enough. The Hokies are simply nowhere near UVA's class and the Cavaliers will take this game seriously considering they lost LY's visit to Blacksburg. Lay the points. 

Virginia continues to lead the nation in points allowed, giving up just 54.0 per game. As mentioned earlier, they held Va Tech to only 48 in the first meeting. The Hokies shot a woeful 35.7% from the floor in that game (including 3 of 20 from 3-pt range!) in what ended up being the most lopsided margin of victory in this in-state rivalry over the last 25 years. Even with the scene shifting to Blacksburg, I can't really see much justification for Va Tech keeping this one close. The Hokies are 12-1 SU at Cassell Coliseum this season, averaging over 85 PPG, but Virginia has won 23 of its last 33 ACC road games. While 3-3 SU over its last six games, two of Va Tech's wins were by a single point. They lost again (at Miami) on Wednesday.

Virginia has had an extra two days to prepare here, which should be considered an advantage they probably did not need. If there is one area that the Cavs do need work on it's limiting turnovers. They have given it away 29 times the L2 games after averaging just nine per game previously. Fortunately, Va Tech does not force many TO's. Again, Virginia is not bothered by playing on the road where they've gone 7-2 against the spread. On Monday, they looked as good as any team in the country (in the 2nd half at least), outscoring Louisville 39-21. Remember the Cardinals came into that game as hot as any team in the country. I believe Virginia is a top 5 team nationally and should be pretty close to that ranking after a win tonight. 8* Virginia

10* SMU (4:00 ET): Cincinnati is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. The others are: Vermont (America East), Princeton (Ivy) and Gonzaga (WCC). However, a case could certainly be made that the Bearcats are NOT the clear-cut best team in the American. Today they'll face what will be their toughest conference game of the season, a trip to SMU. Not only are the Mustangs perfect at Moody Coliseum this season (8-1 ATS too!), they're 46-3 SU here the L3 seasons. They have also won seven straight, six of those by double digits, since losing the first meeting w/ Cincinnati by just two points. That 66-64 loss (as 4.5 pt dogs) on Jan 12 is the Mustangs ONLY loss dating back to November! Last Saturday, we saw three teams w/o a conference loss get priced as underdogs. All three lost, so I'll lay the points in this situation.

SMU comes in averaging a very impressive 1.18 points per possession in conference play. That's quite the efficient offense there. At the same time, they also are giving up only 58.6 points per game, which is fewest in the country and third fewest in the country. They are led by Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, who is one of only two players in the conference averaging both 17 pts and 5 rebounds per game. He dropped a career-high 30 points (also had 10 boards) in Thursday's 66-50 win over Temple. Scary is the fact the team didn't shoot particularly well (37.9 FG%) and still won comfortably, on the road no less. They completely dominated Temple on the glass, outrebounding them 49-32. They also outrebounded Cincy in the first meeting. The fact that SMU just cracked the Top 25 is a bit preposterous. I've had them safely ranked in my Top 20 for some time.

Cincinnati was able to build a lead as big as 15 pts in that first meeting as they shot the ball much better than SMU, particularly from three-point range. But good luck w/ repeating that feat considering SMU outscores its visitors by 22 PPG at home. Both Bearcats losses this year took place out on the road. Granted the last one took place all the way back on Dec 10 at Butler. Like SMU, Cincy shot the ball poorly in its last game, yet still won by double digits. That should tell you right there that these are easily the two best teams in the American. But the key today will be the homecourt advantage plus the fact the Bearcats are just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams allowing fewer than 64 PPG. 10* SMU

10* Iowa State (6:00 ET): All the goodwill that came with last Saturday's upset of Kansas (in Lawrence!) was quickly swept away as Iowa State was upset by Texas on Tuesday. Given it was the second of back to back road games and what the Cyclones did against the Jayhawks, maybe such a result was inevitable. They came out of the gate ice cold, making only 2 of their first 17 shots from the floor. They were down 30-13 to start the game. They eventually fought back, tying the game in the final minute, but lost on a pair of free throws in the closing seconds. While the Cyclones have now dropped three of four overall, I like their chances of bouncing back tonight against an Oklahoma team that is not playing well. ISU is 6-1 ATS the L7 games in the series, including a five-point win in Norman earlier this year. 

OU was actually a two-point favorite in that first meeting, but that was before we knew how bad this season would be for the Sooners. They've now lost six in a row and are coming off a tough result Wednesday vs WVU as they scored only 50 points at home. That was a bitter pill to swallow considering they led for much of the first half. But their shooting never got on track (33% for the game) and they struggled badly against the Mountaineers' press. This is clearly the worst team in the Big 12 this year as they're just 2-9 SU in conference play. They've failed to top 70 pts in any of the L4 games and probably won't here considering ISU allows only 63.9 PPG at home. 

While the loss to Texas was disappointing, last Saturday's win at Kansas shows Iowa State can play w/ anyone. With the exception of a loss to Iowa, there hasn't been a single game this year they haven't been in. They lead the conference in transition points (20.5 per game) and PG Monte Morris is a player to keep an eye out for. His assist to turnover ratio (4.59) is currently on pace to be the best in league history and the best by any player in the country in the L20 years. I already mentioned how the Iowa defense performs at home, well, the offense is pretty good too. It averages 82.3 PPG, so it's an avg MOV of 18.4 PPG here in Ames. I think the Cyclones are a lot better than their given credit for; I'd certainly consider them "top 25 worthy" in fact. They'll show that here. 10* Iowa State

8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): Oklahoma State lost outright as a favorite its last game while Texas won straight up as a dog. That typically creates a situation where there's value on the home side and this afternoon in Stillwater is no different. Beating Iowa State (at home) and having a 6-1 ATS road record may look impressive. But note that the Longhorns are an ugly 0-10 SU outside of Austin this season! Oklahoma State, whose games typically don't lack for scoring, averages an impressive 93.5 PPG in Stillwater. So I'll call for the Pokes to bounce back from Wednesday's disappointing result where they scored only 69 pts here and lost to Baylor by three points. They were actually 1.5-pt chalk for that matchup, notable because Baylor has lost only two games all year. That should tell you right there about how the marketplace views the Cowboys. Lay the points here.

The discrepancy between what Oklahoma State averages at home and Texas averages on the road is quite significant. The 'Horns average just 61.9 PPG on the road, so as you can see it will take quite the yeoman's effort on the defensive end to keep pace today. I'm not sure they have it in them. They did pull off an 82-79 win over OK State, in Austin, back on January 4th. That still stands as UT's highest scoring game - by a wide margin - in Big 12 play. They were down at the half, however, and were aided by an edge in FT attempts, an area where they typically do not convert. Note that wasn't a good spot for OSU as it was a "sandwich game" between West Virginia and Baylor. Tevin Mack had a career-high 27 pts for Texas, but is of course now out indefinitely due to a suspension. Given Mack's absence, it was pretty shocking to see the Horns upset Iowa State earlier in the week. Again, that game was shockingly decided at the FT line, which is not Texas' strong suit. Iowa State also shot the ball terribly early on. Perhaps that had something to do w/ the letdown spot they were in, coming off their own upset of Kansas.

OSU had a five-game win streak snapped w/ the loss to Baylor. Again, the idea of a letdown spot was in play as the Cowboys were off an impressive upset of West Virginia, in Morgantown no less! Playing two top 10 teams in a row is a tough spot. This will be a clear drop in class. Texas won't shoot the ball as well as Baylor did Wednesday as the loss of Mack clearly should catch up w/ them. OSU did hold Baylor w/o a field goal over the final four minutes of the game, so they can play some defense too. 8* Oklahoma State

10* North Dakota State (3:00 ET): North Dakota State currently leads the Summit League, but two teams are within one game of them. They faced one of the two today, at home, as Denver comes calling. This will be a revenge spot for the Bison, who suffered one of their three league losses this year at Denver, nearly one month ago. They were embarrassed actually, losing 79-55 as a two-point favorite. Given what the spread was there and what it is now, it sure looks as if there's some substantial value on the favorite for this rematch. They are off a blowout of South Dakota State on Thursday, which thankfully snapped a two-game losing streak. Denver is off B2B wins, one a blowout of Oral Roberts (as an underdog) and then a close call at home vs. Ft. Wayne last Saturday. 

The fact that Denver has been off for a week may have influenced this line as well. But I'm highly skeptical of this team being able to replicate recent performances. Back on Jan 31, they shot a ridiculous 72 percent in the second half against Oral Roberts, which led to a 93-69 win as three-point dogs. The Pioneers are a good shooting team (50% in conf play!), but that's taking things to an unsustainable level. Sure enough, their next time out they declined to 41.7%, but still managed to beat Ft Wayne thanks to C.J. Bobbitt's buzzer beater in overtime, which gave the team a 76-73 win as 2.5-pt home favorites. While having only played twice in the past 11 days seems like a nice luxury, it could lead to some rust and certainly NDSU will not be lacking for motivation here.

The Bison experienced a dreadful shooting night in the 1st meeting vs. Denver as they finished a lousy 31.7% from the floor (19 of 60!). That is easily their worst offensive showing of conference play. After losing as favorites to both IUPUI and South Dakota last week, NDSU bounced back by making over 51% of its shots in an 82-65 rout of South Dakota State on Wednesday. Note that the Bison have been a favorite in every Summit League game thus far. At home, their record is 9-2 SU and their scoring average jumps to 79.5 PPG. They have hit 80 pts in 7 of 10 Summit League games thus far. This is a pretty deep team w/ seven different players scoring at least 18 pts in one game this season. 10* North Dakota State

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Saturday, I played against Akron and they promptly dropped their first MAC game of the season, 85-70 at Ohio. In my analysis for that game, I'd brought up how the Zips should be considered one of the luckiest teams in the entire country as they could boast six wins by five points or less. Well, you can now make that number SEVEN (wins by 5 pts or less) as they rebounded from the loss to OU by beating Ball State 65-63 on Tuesday. They were nine-point favorites though, so they failed to cover for a fourth consecutive game. Tonight finds the Zips playing at Eastern Michigan. EMU was leading the MAC West for much of the season, that was until this current three-game losing streak that they're on. But I have them bouncing back here in Ypsilanti.

Akron does hold a 70-63 win over Eastern Michigan, back on January 20th. But remember they'd also beaten Ohio at home too. That loss by Eastern Michigan was what started the current slide as they've not only lost three straight, but also five of six overall. Two of those have come at home as favorites. They are still more than alive in the division, however, as all but one team in the MAC West is separated by just one game in the standings. Meanwhile, still w/ a sizable lead in the East, might we start to see some complacency set in w/ Akron? Note that the Zips' last three wins have all been by three points or less and by a total of six points. While they are a dominant home team (won 29 straight!), results on the road have been so-so as Akron is just 3-5 SU in "true" road games this year and 13-19 SU the L3 seasons. 

Eastern Michigan averages an impressive 88.0 PPG at home. Two Saturdays ago, they were a play for me as they went to Miami and recorded their 1st win in Oxford in over 20 years and did so in pretty dominant fashion. Since that time though, they've dropped three straight. In all three games, free throw shooting was an issue for the Eagles. Against both Kent State and Northern Illinois, they watched as opponents got to the charity stripe w/ tremendous regularity. Tuesday in Toledo saw them get to the line only EIGHT times themselves while the Rockets shot a blistering 53% for the game including 10 made three-pointers. But with an avg MOV of 19.5 PPG at home, I can't help but think EMU is a tremendous value, especially in such a desperation spot. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Louisiana Tech (9:00 ET): La Tech is 16-8 SU overall and currently in second place in Conference USA. They trail Middle Tennessee by only two games. A one-point loss way back on January 7th to UTSA (were 16.5-pt favorites) still looms large. But I believe the Bulldogs can certainly still end up finishing in first place, although it will be tough considering they've already lost to MTSU. For this game, I feel they're drastically undervalued. Part of it is a four-game ATS losing streak. The other half of the equation is UTEP has pulled not one, not two, but THREE consecutive upsets. They were underdogs of seven points or more all three times. The latest saw the Miners beat Middle Tennessee at home Saturday, 57-54 as 11-point dogs. They can't do it again, can they? I'll lay the points.

These two met back on January 5th and it was all La Tech in 20-point (64-44) win in Ruston. Neither team shot well (both below 40%), but a key difference was La Tech making 10 three-pointers while UTEP only made two. The Bulldogs offense was again on full display Saturday night w/ a 94-point effort Saturday against Marshall. Granted, the defense wasn't very good (gave up 90 pts), but I don't think UTEP is capable of that kind of point production. Even with the recent resurgence, UTEP has scored more than 66 points only twice in its last 10 games! 

Prior to winning six of their last seven, UTEP was just 2-13 SU on the year. So color me skeptical of them. Teams have not shot the ball well against the Miners recently as Middle Tennessee was actually the first in the L6 games to be above 40%. You have to tip your cap to UTEP for handing MTSU its first league loss of the year. But they actually trailed 27-16 at the half and didn't take their first lead until there were less than three minutes left in the game. It was a similar story last week against UAB as the Miners trailed that game 28-19 at halftime before rallying to win 63-59 as seven-point dogs. As impressive a run as this has been, eventually the Miners will revert back to the team we saw earlier in the year. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Florida International (7:00 ET): According to KenPom, FIU has been one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country. That's confirmed by six losses by five points or less while they have no such victories. Of course, the Panthers have won only five games all season and just one of their last 10! They are coming off a 15-point loss at Charlotte Saturday, which dropped them to 0-10 SU in "true" road games. But here at home, they've been far more competitve (outscoring opponents!) and I like the spot hosting a Rice team that will be laying points for a second straight road game. The favored Owls did cover Saturday as they won 95-80 (sound familiar), but that was against North Texas, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country!  Take the points. 

As you might guess, FIU shoots the ball a lot better at home. They are at 48.9% overall from the field including 38.1% from three-point range. Then again, offense certainly wasn't the issue Saturday against Charlotte, who shot a blistering 59.6% from the field against the Panthers. Expect the defense to be better tonight simply because it can't be any worse than it was there. Now Rice is a top 25 offense in terms of points per game, but they've also been able to take advantage of what has been a really weak recent schedule. You would not expect a team like Rice to be 3-0 SU as road favorites, but they are. However, covering in that spot twice in a row is unfamiliar territory. 

Rice's defense also gets significantly worse away from home. They allow opponents to shoot 46.7% from the field in road games. Curiously, the Owls are 0-9 ATS their L9 Thursday games. The last one, they lost to Old Dominion, outright, as 4-point favorites. Something else that should be noted here is Rice had been off for a full week heading into the North Texas game. This week, they play not only here at FIU, but at FAU on Saturday. The home team has won each of the last two meetings between these schools. Look for this one to be closer than expected w/ an outright upset a distinct possibility. 10* Florida International

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Like Xavier-DePaul, this is another game where the home team should roll. UConn is looking to bounce back from an 82-68 loss at Cincinnati (the top team in the American) on Saturday and has the perfect opponent to do just that. South Florida has yet to win a game in conference play and I don't see them starting tonight. UConn already beat USF once this year, by 21 down in Tampa, and were 7.5-point favorites when they did so. Using that number as our baseline, it would seem as if tonight's line should be several points higher. Lay the points.

I will concede right off the bat that this is not your typical strong UConn team. Barring some miraculous late season run or winning the AAC Tournament, they will not even make the field of 68. They trailed the whole way Saturday against Cincinnati, but again that's a very good team they were facing. Because of injuries, they've been down to as few as six scholarship players at times this year, but it appears as if both Juwan Durham and Steven Enonch will be back tonight from their respective foot injuries. Prior to losing to Cincy, the Huskies were on a season-best three-game win streak. They've won four in a row here at home. I suspect we'll see a lot better defense from Kevin Ollie's team tonight after they gave up 82 points to Cincinnati. That was the most allowed in any conference game this season.

Also helping the UConn defense in this one is the fact South Florida comes in averaging only 62.4 PPG in conference play. They have lost all 11 American games by an average of 16.4 points. Their last win came all the way back on 12.22 vs. Delaware. They only time they won a road game this year came back on 12.1 at Troy. What's real concerning here for the Bulls is they just shot better than 50% in B2B games and still lost - comfortably - both times. I would expect a sharp decline in the team's overall shooting tonight as UConn holds its visitors to just 61.2 PPG at home. Don't be too fooled by the final score from Saturday (83-74) as the Bulls actually trailed Temple by 23 at the half and only shortened the margin once the game was well in hand. The first time these teams met, USF allowed UConn to make 12 three-pointers. 8* Connecticut

8* IPFW (7:00 ET): Among schools whose games were regularly lined, Fort Wayne was the top ATS team in the country last year at 21-8 (72.4%). Despite the predictable regression in that department this year (they're just 7-11 ATS) and the fact they are just 5-5 SU in conference play, I still view this as the best team in the Summit League. One thing is for sure and that's the Mastadons take care of business at home where they are 11-1 SU and averaging a whopping 95.9 PPG. Tonight, they look to rebound from a tough road loss at Denver as they host South Dakota in what is a revenge spot. I look for the Mastadons to win big in this one. Lay the points.

IPFW lost to Denver at the buzzer - in overtime - on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in the last six games, a far cry from last season when they lost only four conference games all season and were the top seed entering the Summit League Tournament (were upset in the semfinals). But again, I feel that the homecourt edge tonight will be the difference maker. The Mastadons have not only covered 19 of their last 27 games played on this floor, but they've topped 100 pts in three of the last four home games! It's been a road-heavy schedule that's contributed to the downturn of late. This will be just the second home game for the Mastadons in the last month. The first saw them beat rival IUPUI by 30 on January 25th.

South Dakota pulled an upset over IPFW at home on January 14th. It was an ugly 66-63 game where neither side shot well. Unfortunately for the Coyotes, they won't be able to count on Ft. Wayne shooting that poorly again. Especially considering they give up 78.7 PPG away from home to begin with. South Dakota pulled an upset Saturday, beating the first place team in the Summit (North Dakota State), 76-66 as six-point underdogs. But this will now be their third consecutive road game. They've shot above 50% from the floor in the first two, but I do not see that trend continuing this evening. Note IPFW is a strong 9-1 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* IPFW

8* Xavier (6:30 ET): The Musketeers just upset Creighton, 82-80 as five-point dogs on Saturday, and did so w/o the services of Edmond Sumner. Sumner (knee) was lost for the year in late January and remember that Myles Davis has also left the team. So there's plenty of attrition going on here, but it didn't stop the team from recording its first win over an RPI Top 25 opponent on Saturday. If the Musketeers were able to down a team like Creighton, then certainly they should have little difficulty here against Big East lightweight DePaul, right? The Blue Demons enter this contest having lost all but one league game and they are 0-9 SU on the road as well. Let's continue to take advantage of Xavier still being undervalued in the wake of some personnel looses. Lay the points.

How did Xavier upset Creighton? Well, let's start by pointing out that they shot better than 50 percent from the field and got really hot late. Five three-pointers were the key during a 19-7 second half run which essentially decided the game. It also helped that Creighton missed free throws. Now starting in place of Sumner, Quentin Goodin scored 15 points. It was the Musketeers third straight win, so they've yet to lose since the Sumner injury. All three wins have been close, but tonight marks - by far - their easiest league game of the season. Xavier is 11-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 14.8 points per game. They've beaten DePaul by double digits three straight times, including twice last season. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as home favorites of 12.5 or more points.

Saying DePaul is "not good" would be putting it mildly. Their only Big East win of the season came by a single point, at home, vs. Providence. True road games have been a complete disaster as they've lost all six (also 0-3 at neutral sites) by an average margin of 17.1 points per game. They come into tonight off a 13-point loss to Marquette, at home. They gave up 92 points there and that's not a good sign when you only average 62.0 per game on the road. Incredibly, the Blue Demons are shooting just 35.7% from the field this season when away from home. That includes an atrocious 24.9% from three-point range! At the same time, they allow opponents to make 48.7% of their FG attempts and 38.2% from three-point range when they are the road team. This should be a blowout. 8* Xavier

10* Michigan (9:00 ET): When these teams met nine days ago in East Lansing, Michigan State was a desperate team. They entered the game on a three-game losing streak. However, they were able to defeat the rival Wolverines 70-62 as slight three-point favorites even though the sharper dollars appeared to be on the other side. Now it's Michigan that's desperate. They lost here in Ann Arbor to Ohio State over the weekend, 70-66 as four-point chalk, dropping them to just 4-6 straight up in Big 10 play. However, I don't see them dropping B2B home games. After all, they are 12-3 SU this year in Ann Arbor, holding opponents to just 62.0 points per game. Therefore, I'll lay the short number. 

Michigan State was a play for me last Thursday as they went to Nebraska and won 72-61 as a short road favorite. So it's now B2B wins for Sparty and they were off this weekend. But this team simply isn't as strong an outfit as we're used to seeing under HC Tom Izzo. Thursday marked just their second "true" road win of the year and when they're not a home favorite, the team's record is just 5-8 SU this season. They did shoot a blistering 63 percent from the field in the second half against Nebraska, but that's unlikely to be matched here due to the Michigan defense not to mention the simple laws of regression. They also made 11 of 17 three-point field goals in that game, which is well above their norm.

Michigan is better at home primarily because the defensive numbers improve so much, but they also shoot the ball slightly better. They did not shoot the ball well at all in the first meeting w/ MSU, finishing that game at just 33.9% from the field including 7 of 26 from three-point range. Note that prior to suffering that loss in East Lansing, the Wolverines had just blown out Indiana by 30 (here at home) the game previous. While MSU is considered "safely" in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) right now, Michigan is right on the bubble. They BADLY need to win this game and I think they will as the hot shooting we're used to seeing from John Beilein teams should return. They were only 37.3% from the field against Ohio State Saturday, which was pretty shocking. 10* Michigan

10* Rider (7:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for MAAC-leader Monmouth. But because of that, the spread is inflated. The Hawks haven't fared too well on the conference road thus far, going 1-3 ATS w/ the one cover being a four-point win at Canisius. Of course, they also didn't fare well the first matchup vs. Rider (back on New Year's Eve) when they lost 93-90 as 14-pt home favorites. That was an overtime game that saw Monmouth fall behind by 13 at the half. They would go on to lose their next game as well (at St. Peter's), but have since won nine in a row. Still though, this line is clearly inflated if you use the number from the first meeting as our baseline. Rider certainly won't be lacking for motivation here either as they lost by 21 to Iona on Friday. Take the points here.

Elsewhere on Friday, Monmouth avenged its only other MAAC loss from this season. They faced St. Peter's in a situation similar to this, only at home and the number certainly appeared to be more advantageous from their perspective. I took the bait and was let down as the Hawks only prevailed 71-70 (were -8.5) and needed OT to do so. While they initially raced out to 14-2, Monmouth struggled from that point forward, letting St. Peter's tie the game by halftime. They even faced an eight-point deficit w/ just over six minutes remaining. While this is the Hawks' second nine-game win streak of the season, note the program has NEVER won 10 consecutive games.

The first time these teams matched up, Rider definitely benefited from catching Monmouth at the right time. The Hawks were off a high-profile game vs. North Carolina where they were blown out 102-74 and thus more ripe to be upset. Rider pulled off the SU dog win by outscoring the Hawks 41-28 in the first half and holding them to 38.9% shooting for the game. For tonight's rematch, another break may have already gone Rider's way as Monmouth's second leading scorer Micah Seaborn (15.4 PPG) injured his knee on Friday and may not play here. Though they average plenty of points, Monmouth is hardly a great shooting team (42.9%). Rider was on the wrong side of a pretty massive shooting discrepancy Friday vs. Iona, but the Broncs are also a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts last game. I'd be a bit surprised if Rider pulled out another SU dog win at Monmouth's expense here, but the number is generous. 10* Rider

8* California (4:30 ET): It appears as if you have to be a pretty good team to beat Cal. Their last four losses have come against Virginia, Arizona, UCLA and Oregon. Sunday's opponent, Colorado, is not at that level. Yes, the Bears did lose earlier in the year to San Diego State and Seton Hall. But those were neutral site games. Here in Berkeley, the team is 13-2 SU w/ an avg MOV of +12 points per game. The only two home losses came to Virginia and Arizona by a combined nine points. It was a double overtime win here on Thursday (over Utah) and while that can take a lot out of a team, the fact that Colorado is playing its second road game of the weekend mitigates that. I can't see the Buffaloes pulling back to back upsets (won at Stanford on Thurs). Lay the points.

I really like this Cal team. Even though it was a double overtime game Thursday, they never trailed Utah by more than three points. The Utes came in shooting a Pac 12 best 53.9% from the field, but Cal held them to just 41.5%. It was just the second game all year that the Bears were outrebounded. I do not think it's going to happen in B2B games. Ivan Rabb now has 11 double-doubles and the Bears blocked nine shots against Utah. There should be a massive edge inside for the home team in this game. By the way, Colorado is just 1-11 SU all-time in Berkeley. While just 1-5 ATS the L6 games, Cal has won all but one of those straight up, a visit to an Oregon team that has not lost a home game all season. Defensively, the Bears have a massive edge in this game. They allow only 59.9 PPG at home while Colorado allows 80.4 PPG on the road.

Colorado is just 3-6 SU in "true" road games this year. They upset Stanford on Thursday despite a season-high 23 turnovers and making just one field goal over the final six minutes. That actually made it B2B upsets as they shocked Oregon last week in Boulder. This three-game win streak looks "nice and shiny," but remember that the Buffs opened Pac 12 play 0-7. With a tough three-game road trip looming, this is almost a "must-win" for Cal. I feel they're going to dominate the inside and score at will this afternoon. At the same time, Colorado is due to regress after pulling off a pair of upsets. 8* California

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): The Warriors may be in the second game of a back to back, and off an upset, but they're getting far too many points tonight at Cal State Northridge. The host Matadors have won three consecutive games, oddly as 1-pt favorites every time, but this price range is a bit of rarefied air for them. Only twice all season have they been asked to lay this many points and both times they failed; home games against Idaho State and UC Riverside. Thus, I'll look past what is typically an unfavorable situation for Hawaii as I think they're getting enough help from the oddsmakers to make this a winning ticket. Take the points.

Believe it or not, but Hawaii has played only THREE "true" road games so far. Thursday was their first win as they went to UC Riverside as 3.5-pt dogs and won outright, 72-63. It was their second consecutive win after routing UC Santa Barbara at home last Saturday by a score of 78-56. Three of the team's four Big West losses this year have been by six points or less. The only bad one was to UC Irvine, who is easily the top team in this league. Thursday saw the Warriors jump up to a huge 20-point halftime lead and then coast in the second half. They have already beating Northridge once this year, 80-77 as 2.5-point home favorites. It was pretty remarkable that they were able to win despite a -16 disadvantage in FT attempts.

CS Northridge is not a good defensive team as they allow over 81 points per game. That makes them pretty unappealing as a favorite right there. They are off a wild 108-98 win over Long Beach State Thursday, their 1st game hitting triple digits on the scoreboard since a double overtime loss in 2014. The Matadors do lead the conference in points per game, but at "only" 79.1. They had trouble getting stops in the season's 1st meeting vs. Hawaii and are 1-9 ATS this year coming off a game where they allowed 80+ points. The Matadors are not only 6-17 ATS seeking revenge for a road loss, but also only 1-6 ATS at home this year. 8* Hawaii

10* UAB (4:00 ET): The Blazers just lost (on the road) to a bad UTEP team Thursday night, but will get a chance to bounce back here against one of C-USA's other bottom-feeders, that being UTSA. Given the events of 48 hours ago, UAB is now available at a far cheaper price than they ought to be. Prior to losing at UTEP, they had won seven of eight. Meanwhile, UTSA has lost four in a row. Thursday brought their first home loss of the year, to Middle Tennessee, but this may be viewed as  a bit of a letdown spot by the players after hosting the league's top team. They even had a lead at halftime, but obviously could not hold on. I think it will be tough for the players to get over that disappointment. UAB is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss. Lay the points. 

UAB also enjoyed a halftime lead in their previous game, only to come up short. In their case, they held UTEP to only 19 first half points. But a key 14-2 second run by the Miners totally changed the game and UAB could not recover. It was a rare off night from the floor for the Blazers, who shot just 39.3% for the game, including 6 of 20 from three-point range. They also certainly did not help themselves from the FT line where they went just 9 of 18. That's a killer in what ended up being a four-point loss. I anticipate UAB's shooting will improve dramatically here as in each of the six games previous to the loss to UTEP, they were above 50% from the field. They are also normally a very good FT shooting team (76%); in fact, they are 20th in the country at the charity stripe! 

UTSA does well defensively, at least at home (61.4 PPG allowed), but struggles offensively. They are 325th nationally in scoring offense and 341st in FG%. The Roadrunners have been below 40% from the field in five straight games. While they've got the nice home record, most of the wins were close. They come into today off four straight double digit losses, a streak which began w/ one of the ugliest performances of this entire NCAAB season, that being a 59-39 loss at UTEP. I feel that given the disparate ways these two teams shoot the ball, there's a reciepe for a blowout here. Something that's also benefited UTSA at home this year is opponents are only making 63.4% of foul shots. That cannot possibly continue. 10* UAB

10* Ohio (12:00 ET): The number of teams still w/o a conference loss continues to dwindle and THREE such teams will be an underdog on Saturday. The first is Akron, who visits MAC East rival Ohio. These teams have already met once this season w/ the Zips (obviously) winning 83-68 as six-point favorites. Since then, their cushion in the division has grown to four full games as Ohio has lost two more times, including their last time out as they fell 90-85 at Western Michigan on Tuesday. That game saw the Bobcats blow a 21-pt lead (were up 10 w/ just over 5 mins remaining). As heartbreaking a defeat as that may be, I expect OU to get over it quickly in this revenge spot. Lat the points. 

Ohio has not been the same since losing Antonio Campbell for the year. The senior forward was leading the team in scoring (16.4 PPG). All four league losses have come since the injury. But they've also managed to win big at both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green w/o him. Plus, they did lead WMU big on the road. The Bobcats did not have him the first time they faced Akron, so it's not as if they will have to make up lost production. They've also shot the ball at 50% or better in each of the L3 games. Here in Athens, they're 9-2 SU and holding teams to just 61.9 points per game. Those two home losses have been by a combined seven points. They happen to be the last two home games they've played. So, that's another reason motivation will be high here.

Akron could also be w/o a key contributor Saturday afternoon. Michael Hughes is listed as questionable. Even with him, the Zips have been a pretty lucky team this season. Their luck rating at KenPom is actually second highest in the country, trailing only Sam Houston State. What do I mean by that? Well, for starters, they have a ton of close wins. Six by five points or less to be exact. Five of those took place in January, including the last two times they've been in action. Last Saturday, they squeaked by Buffalo by a single point, 91-90 as 7.5-pt chalk. They won that game via two free throws in the final seconds. Then on Tuesday, they had to rally back from a 14-point halftime deficit to win at Northern Illinois, 76-73. So we have a team off a huge come from behind victory visiting a team that just blew a huge lead and lost its previous game. With this also being the second of B2B road games for Akron, it's tough to like them in this spot. Ohio is 29-11 ATS its L40 games as a home favorite of three points or less. Akron goes down for the 1st time in MAC play. 10* Ohio

10* Monmouth (7:00 ET): Though they've won eight straight and are seemingly in control of their conference, don't expect any kind of letdown from MAAC leader Monmouth in this situation. That's because they're matched up w/ the last team to beat them, St. Peter's. When these schools met back on January 2nd, the Peacocks prevailed 71-61 as 5.5-pt home dogs. That result left Monmouth at 0-2 in conference play. It was a bad shooting night for the Hawks, who scored only 19 points in first half en route to what still stands as their lowest scoring output in conference play this season. St. Peter's has remained formidable, especially when taking points, but tonight should be Monmouth's night to garner revenge. Lay the points.

Like I alluded to, St. Peter's has been really strong at the betting window. They've gone 9-2 ATS L11 and since the upset of Monmouth, their only three SU losses have come by 2, 2 and 3 points. But tonight is their third consecutive road game and they are off a loss, at Iona, on Sunday. That was an overtime game as well and saw the Peacocks fail to get the job done defensively. Iona made 13 of 23 three-pointers and that's something to keep an eye on here as Monmouth makes an average of nine shots per game from behind the arc. I'm pretty surprised to see St. Peter's doing this well in conference play considering nationally they rank outside the top 300 in points, rebounds and assists per game! It should be noted that the L2 times the Peacocks have been on a three-game ATS win streak (as they are here), they've failed to cover the next time out. 

Monmouth is 10-1 SU at home and averaging 86 PPG. Last time here, they set the school record for points scored in a single game w/ 95 in a beatdown of Quinnipiac. That was their second straight home victory scoring 90 or more points. Monday, they poured in 83 in a double digit win at Marist. Overall, the team has won four in a row by double digits. There's some definite value here considering the Hawks were favored by 5.5 at St. Peter's last month. While they actually trailed Marist at the half Monday, I'm not too concerned given that Monmouth should shoot a lot better than 40% here. They did score 56 pts in the second half. Again, this figures to be one that the Hawks have had circled on their calendar for some time. They'll take no mercy. 10* Monmouth

10* Fairfield (8:00 ET): The opening suggested that these two MAAC teams are relatively even, but I don't believe that to be the case. Sure, Fairfield had its share of struggles in January. At one point, they'd lost five in a row, clearly bottoming out w/ a 42-point loss at Monmouth on 1.22. But since then, the Stags have rallied for B2B victories, both here at home. The last one came by 29 points, Tuesday vs. Manhattan. Niagara is also off a win, 80-67 over Rider on Saturday, but the Purple Eagles now find themselves on the road. That's a place they haven't been too often recently, in fact, only one of their previous six games took place on the road. This is a small number and Fairfield is already 5-1 ATS this season when taking on a team w/ a losing record. Lay the points. 

This is the first meeting of the season between these two. Fairfield swept last year while Niagara did the same in 2015. While the visitors come into this game having won three of four, two of the wins required late rallies. On 1.21, Niagara scored the game's final six points to beat St. Peter's by two. Then on Saturday, they closed on a 24-9 run to get by Rider, 80-67. That marked the Purple Eagles' largest margin of victory in a MAAC game this year. They benefited by Rider shooting only 36.8% for the game. I expect them to struggle defensively in this game, given that they allow 77.7 PPG for the season. They are just 2-9 SU on the road as well. 

As mentioned above, Fairfield also rolled to victory in their last game. They held Manhattan to only 25% shooting in a 78-49 win Tuesday. While it's a quick turnaround here for the Stags, I expect them to keep rolling at home. Saturday, they beat Marist here by double digits as well. At home, the Stags do a great job of defending the three-point line as they allow just 26.9% shooting from behind the arc. 10* Fairfield

10* South Florida (7:00 ET): USF got absolutely rocked in its last game, losing by 41 to the best team in the American, Cincinnati. Thus, it was a given that the number would be inflated for their next game (and it is) as they return home to host Memphis. Memphis is not as good as Cincinnati and while USF certainly has plenty of ground to make up after Saturday, this is a good value. Yes, I realize the Bulls have yet to win a single conference game this season and are averaging less than 60 PPG in AAC play. But Memphis seems unworthy of this price range, given their defensive struggles on the road and overall problems covering the spread (1-4-1 ATS L6). Take the points.

South Florida has already played Memphis tough once this year, losing by only six on the road. That game took place a little over two weeks ago and was a pretty ugly affair. Had USF gotten to the FT line more than SEVEN times, perhaps they could have pulled an outright upset. They held the Tigers to 35.1% shooting. Whatever offensive improvement we see from Memphis tonight will be mitigated on the defensive end. They are giving up 76.9 PPG on the road so far this season. They are just 2-2 in American road games w/ one of the wins by only a three-point margin. Even at home, they didn't shoot the ball well Saturday, making just over 30% of their shots in an ugly 57-50 win over East Carolina. 

Obviously, when a team is 0-9 SU in conference play, there aren't a ton of positives to report. But South Florida is third in the league in three-point percentage and they have outscored opponents by 86 points in the painted area. As hard as it is to win conference road games, this is just way too many points for a pedestrian team like Memphis to lay. 10* South Florida

8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Believe it or not, Nebraska actually swept the season series from Michigan State last year. The two wins came by a combined three points, however. Still, that makes this a big double revenge spot for HC Izzo and Sparty, who could use the win anyway. This MSU team is not as strong as per usual. Their record is only 13-9 SU and prior to beating rival Michigan on Saturday, they had dropped three in a row. Of course, this is the time of year when the Spartans traditionally "turn it on." They've gone 10-3 ATS the L2 seasons in the month of February and I do believe they're catching Nebraska at an opportune time here. The Cornhuskers just upset Purdue here in Lincoln over the weekend, so they're likely in store for a letdown. 

Prior to that win over Purdue, Nebraska had really been struggling. They'd lost five straight, which makes MSU's three-game skid seem like "small potatoes" by comparison. Granted, two of those five Huskers losses were decided by a single point and were decided at the buzzer. But one came to lowly Rutgers. What went right for them against Purdue? Well, two players (Jack McVeigh and Jeriah Horne) came off the bench to score a total of 37 points, which was an unlikely boost. I don't think that duo can be counted on a nightly basis. While a couple of close games may not have gone Nebraska's way recently, note all four wins in Big 10 play have been by four points or less. Then there was last season's pretty fortuitous sweep of Michigan State. What I'm saying is that another close loss tonight would not surprise me. 

Michigan State is still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but a loss here could do some real damage to their resume. Like Nebraska, they were able to turn things around over the weekend. Unlike Nebraska, they did it w/ defense by holding the Wolverines to just 33.9% shooting for the game, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. This is still a top 50 defense in terms of efficiency, mind you. While MSU has lost nine times, it's not as if many of those defeats were bad losses. Five of them came at the hands of Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke and Purdue. Those are all top 20 teams. I just can't see a third consecutive loss to Nebraska taking place as I would have MSU as the slight favorite, even on the road. Revenge will be theirs. 8* Michigan State

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This is another revenge spot, for Fresno, as they lost to the Flyboys last month in Colorado Springs. What followed for the Bulldogs was an impressive three-game win streak, including victories over Boise State and Nevada. But that came to a halt Saturday night w/ a bit of a surprising loss at Utah State (were 2-pt favorites). Air Force has not played since last Tuesday when they shocked San Diego State 60-57. That, ironically, snapped a three-game losing streak and was their first win since beating Fresno State back on 1.11. I look for Fresno to get its revenge here as the home court advantage is a big deal, not only considering their own 9-1 SU home mark, but the fact Air Force is winless on the road. Lay the point. 

The home-road disparity has played itself out for FSU throughout conference play. They're 4-0 SU at home and 1-4 SU on the road. At home, they just seem to be a bit of a different team as they average 80.0 PPG on almost 49% shooting. That one MWC road win was a big one as it came at Nevada, giving them a season sweep of the Wolfpack, who are considered to be the best the conference has to offer. This has been a bit of a covering machine this season as they're 12-4 ATS overall and 5-1 at home. A bad shooting night (35%) of their own combined w/ hot shooting from the opponent (56%) is what doomed them Saturday in Logan. But I don't see Air Force being able to create the same kind of disparity that Utah State did. Certainly not on the road. 

The Falcons have lost all eight times they've venture off campus this year, including six "true" road games. In the process, they are giving up an average of more than 81 PPG. It's a real stark contrast between home and away as in Colorado Springs they're outscoring opponents by double digits while on the road they are being outscored by double digits. The season best effort on the defensive end against SDSU last week isn't likely to be duplicated here as the Falcons are just 3-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 pts or less the previous game. I also think the week off can hinder more than help. Just look at FSU, who was in the same spot on Saturday (also coming off an upset). Though the AFA has covered 8 of the past 10 matchups vs. Fresno, the Bulldogs have still won eight of those straight up. 8* Fresno State

8* Duquesne (8:00 ET): The Dukes may very well always be a bottom tier team in the Atlantic 10, but tonight they're catching a nice number at home against a vulnerable St. Bonaventure squad. The Bonnies are off a loss at Rhode Island on Saturday and are now being asked to play B2B games on the road for the 1st time since conference play commenced. Duquesne, meanwhile, will just be happy to be back home following road losses to Davidson and Richmond last week. Each team's loss on Saturday can be explained by bad FG% numbers. St. Bonaventure shot just 29.5% against Rhose Island while Duquesne ALLOWED Richmond to shoot 53.4% (and gave up 101 pts in the process w/ no overtime). I feel Duquesne's defensive numbers are more likely to dramatically improve here than SBU's offensive numbers. Take the points. 

Scoring 90 points and not covering as a double digit dog is tough to do in this spot, but Duquesne pulled off the feat on Saturday. It was their fifth loss in a row and seventh in the last eight games. Making matters more frustrating from Saturday's ATS loss is that the Dukes actually led outright, 57-52, early in the second half! It also didn't help that Richmond essentially doubled them up at the free throw, which was key in the result at the betting window. While the conference record obviously isn't good, it's not like the Dukes were favored to win many of these games (only one, vs. St. Louis, whom they beat). It also hasn't helped that they've had to play most of the top teams in the conference. Overall, they've remained competitive as they're only being outscored by 3.0 PPG for the year.

While 13-7 SU overall, St. Bonaventure's margins of victory have tended to be razor thin. Their most impressive work of the year came at neutral settings. Take those six games away and they're winning by an average margin of less than three points per game! Prior to losing at Rhode Island on Saturday (trailed wire to wire), the Bonnies needed to rally back from 18 down to overcome St. Joe's the game before. With a big home game looming vs. VCU this weekend, I look for this to be a bit of a trap spot for St. Bonaventure, who is just 2-2 ATS as a favorite in conference play. 8* Duquesne

10* Clemson (7:00 ET): If his team keeps it up, Georgia Tech's Josh Pastner is certainly going to win ACC Coach of the Year. He probably is worthy of some National COY discussion. That's because his Yellow Jackets, picked to do next to nothing this year, keep pulling upsets. In the last six games alone, they've won straight up four times as a dog. They're 6-0 ATS overall. That stretch started w/ a 75-63 win in Atlanta over Clemson (were +10). Tonight is the rematch w/ the Tigers, in Death Valley, and incredibly Clemson will be asked to lay fewer points here than they were on the road. Granted, CU had lost six in a row before Saturday's 67-60 win at Pitt. But this is still a good team, one that is clearly capable of winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. Lay the points.

Again, I'd like to point out that Ga Tech has yet to be favored in a single ACC game! Their latest upset came on Saturday when they stunned Notre Dame on a last second buzzer beater. It was the Jackets' second victory over a top 15 team last week as they also destroyed Florida State. Both games took place in Atlanta. Against Notre Dame, they trailed by as many as 10 early and were able to overcome poor three-point shooting. Despite the impressive week (and month for that matter), you have to wonder when the Jackets will begin simply regressing to the mean. They are only 1-3 SU on the ACC road mind you. At Virginia, they managed only 49 points. At Duke, they were beaten 110-57. On the offensive end, the team has yet to shoot better than 50% in any conference game this season.

Clemson may not be in the same class as a Virginia or Duke, but like those two teams, they can beat Ga Tech by double digits. Remember that the Tigers opened the year 12-2 SU. Then 2017 happened. After opening ACC play with a win at Wake Forest on New Year's Eveb, the team dropped six straight, four of the losses coming by five points or less. They've had to play North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville and Virginia. No shame in losing to those teams. Really, the only "bad" loss is the one to tonight's opponent as they were 10-pt favorites in Atlanta. In retrospect, that was clearly a bad read by the oddsmakers but that doesn't mean it's not a tremendous value now laying fewer points at home. In that first matchup, Clemson shot just 36.7% from the floor. I project major improvement from that number here as they are at 47.2% at home where they average an impressive 81.2 PPG. 10* Clemson

10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): Both teams here are off home losses. That said, it's still a huge benefit for San Diego State to be at home. Whether you're talking football or basketball, Wyoming sports always seems to have one of the sharpest home-road dichotomies. This year's Pokes also have a strong split in terms of being favored or an underdog. When favored, they're 10-0 SU. When they're an underdog, they're just 2-6. Take away the one time they were favored (won 80-70 over lowly San Jose State) and they're just 1-5 SU in "true" roadies with all of the losses coming by six points or more. It's been many years since they last won here at Viejas Arena. Lay the points.

San Diego State was the consensus choice to win the Mountain West this year, but stumbled out of the gate, losing its first three league games. They went on to win the next three, but tonight hope to avoid a pattern as they're off B2B losses, both as favorites. First it was a road loss at Air Force last Tuesday, 60-57, as 6.5-pt chalk. That game saw the Aztecs blow a second point lead. It was another narrow setback on Saturday, this time on the road, as they lost in the final seconds at Colorado State. That was a one-point game. In fact, three of the Aztecs' five league losses have come by three points or less. All three wins have been by double digits. They do remain tops in the conference, giving up just 62.9 points per game. I really do like their chances of a bounce back here.

Among Mountain West teams, Wyoming takes the most three-pointers and makes the fewest. That's a rather dubious combination. They are making less than 30 percent of their attempts from behind the arc in conference play. On the road, that number drops to a horrendous 26.5%. I think the Cowboys simply lack the firepower to keep pace here against what should be a very motivated favorite thaty's looking to bounce back from a pretty rare home defeat. 10* San Diego State

10* Ohio State (7:00 ET): Maryland is 19-2 SU and ranked #17 in the country. But, like many, I feel they have been one of the more fortunate teams in the country this year and are nowhere near as good as their record and ranking might seem to indicate. They are 8-0 as an underdog, not just against the spread, but straight up as well. So they've certainly beaten the oddsmakers' low expectations. But, eventually, regression will hit a team I do not believe to be even one of the top 40 in the nation. Yes, you read that correctly. Tonight, they're getting points at Ohio State and while that perfect record as a dog certainly has to give you pause, I'm fading the Terps in this one.

While Maryland went to Minnesota on Saturday and pulled off its eighth outright upset of the year, Ohio State lost at home as a 1-pt dog to Iowa. It was the Buckeyes' second loss in the last three games and each of their previous four (before the Iowa loss) had been decided by six points or less. While OSU is only 3-6 SU in Big 10 play, they started 0-4 and have lost twice at home by two points or less. Their home record is 11-3 SU w/ visitors to Columbus averaging only 63.7 PPG. This is a revenge game too as the Bucks were swept by Maryland in LY's season series, including a close five-point loss here at home. Motivation should be especially high coming off the disappointing performance at Iowa City where they trailed by as many as 20 and let the Hawkeyes shoot 50 percent despite no Peter Jok.

Not only is Maryland 8-0 SU/ATS as a dog, they've won all eight road/neutral site games as well. But this will be their fourth "true" roadie in the last five games overall and eventually that's going to catch up w/ you. It was a come from behind effort Saturday at Minnesota, a performance that is highly unlikely to be duplicated. The Terps scored 59 points in the second half and shot better than 50% for the game, including a preposterous 11 of 18 from three-point range. Maryland is a young team and what we've seen from them thus far is something I view as unsustainable. They profile as a team likely to be upset on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is 8-2 ATS after giving up 80+ points its last game. 10* Ohio State

full analysis soon

8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): We're going all Sun Belt with this three-game report as there are some real commonalities with the games. Here, we have Coastal Carolina hosting a revenge game against a TX-Arlington team that is playing on the road for a second time in three days. That's the dreaded spot we've been targeting the last couple days. The Mavericks did win Saturday, 83-67 as seven-point favorites over Appalachian State. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover. But I feel it will be tough for them to win/cover as a road fave for a second time in this short of a span. Coastal Carolina, a SBC newbie, still remembers what happened to them on New Year's Eve. Take the points.

What happened to Coastal Carolina on NYE was a 90-69 beatdown from UT-Arlington. It was a game w/ a ton of three-point attempts (75 total!), but it was actually the Chanticleers inability to make two-point shots that hurt them. Of course, they didn't play any defense either. It's been a real "up and down" start to CC's first year in the Sun Belt as after the loss to UT Arlington, they immediately went on a four-game win streak. They've since dropped three in a row, including a two-point loss here at home to Texas State on Saturday. Their poorest offensive effort of the season was untimely considering they held the Bobcats to just 33.9% shooting.

With Ga Southern losing Saturday, UT Arlington is now just one of three teams within a game of 1st place in the Sun Belt. It should be noted that the Mavericks actually trailed at the half Saturday, 32-24, before exploding for 59 second half points. They did not take their first lead of the game until there was 13:34 left. So the fact they ended up winning by 16 does not tell "the whole story."  Both conference losses took place on the road, for the record (Texas State and Troy). I expect Coastal Carolina to be a lot better defensively here compared to the 1st meeting as they allow only 66.1 PPG at home for the season (opponents shooting only 38%). UT Arlington's average margin of victory as a road favorite is just 2.3 PPG. 8* Coastal Carolina

full analysis soon

10* Evansville (4:00 ET): Has it really been since January 1st? That's the last time Evansville won a game apparently. They beat Northern Iowa 70-58 that day as short 2.5-pt home favorites. Since then, it's been seven straight losses in MVC play for the Purple Aces. What has gone wrong? Well, averaging 61.2 PPG simply isn't going to get it done this time of year. Note that this season was always considered to be a rebuilding year, but I think even the biggest pessimist would not have forecast this. With little to play for the rest of the way, facing the Missouri Valley's top team at home, in a revenge spot no less, may be the last chance to fire the Purple Aces up. With the underdog 11-4 ATS the L15 H2H meetings, I'm taking the points here.

Illinois State is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. Of course, just yesterday, I targeted one such team (UNC Wilmington) and came away quite happy (they lost big, laying pts on the road). These two teams actually opened conference play against one another and it was ISU winning 62-50 in Normal. Evansville had an awful shooting night, making only 14 of 54 field goal attempts (25.9%!) including 2 of 12 from three-point range. That's still the fewest points scored by the Purple Aces in any game this season. Of note to me is the fact that Illinois State was a 7.5-point favorite for that contest. The line is essentially identical here for the rematch, despite the change in venue!

Illinois State is in first place in the MVC, but they are not the best team in the league (Wichita State is). I tip my cap to the Redbirds for beating the Wheat Shockers two weeks ago (game was in Normal), but you can bet Greg Marshall will have his team ready for next weekend's big rematch. ISU stayed unbeaten in conference play w/ a narrow 71-66 win over Larry Bird's alma mater (Indiana State) on Wednesday. It was their 10th straight win, but it didn't come easy as they trailed at halftime (at home) and shot only 40.8% from the field. It's difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, let alone cover both times. The fact that Evansville allows only 61.7 PPG at home will keep them in this one. 10* Evansville

8* Detroit (2:00 ET): At one point, Wisc GB was the lone remaining unbeaten in the Horizon League. The Phoenix began conference play 5-0 SU, but it was hardly the most daunting slate of games. Then they dropped B2B games at Valpo (blown out) and at home to Youngstown State (stunner!). They've seemingly "reversed course" over the past week though w/ wins over Cleveland State and more notably, Oakland. The Phoenix were eight-point underdogs for their visit to Oakland, which they ended up winning straight up by eight points. But this marks the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot where I love to fade teams, particularly if they're laying points on the road. This is a proverbial letdown spot for the road chalk.

Detroit is certainly hoping for a bit of a letdown from the Phoenix because they've lost three straight, giving up 100+ pts twice in the process! Ironically though, they are off an overtime loss where the final score was only 73-69. That was Friday, here at home, versus WI-Milwaukee. The Titans were short-handed for that game as starter Chris Jenkins (leading rebounder) was out w/ a hip injury. He could return today. Also, Jenkins or no Jenkins, the Titans should have won Friday. But they were an absolutely atrocious 9 of 29 from the three throw line! Such a performance cannot possibly be repeated again this season. While it's certainly been a rough season thus far for the Titans, let's take into account the Jenkins' injury and the fact they've have to play five of their last seven on the road. Remember - this team also upset Oakland on the road - as 18.5-pt underdogs.

Detroit's defensive numbers definitely gave me pause initially, but then again, Wisconsin GB is no defensive stalwart by any means. The Phoenix allow 76.6 PPG, a bad number when you're favored on the road. Unlike Detroit, this team has gotten to play the majority of its Horizon League games at home thus far. In only one of the previous four, against Youngstown State (worst team in the league), were they favored.  It's important to note that the Phoenix could again be w/o starting point guard Trevor Anderson.  8* Detroit