10* Weber State (2:00 ET): It’s rare that the oddsmakers make an error. It’s even rarer when they do so on the same matchup twice in a row. But that certainly appears to be the case here. I wish I would have gotten down on Weber State Thursday night when they hosted Southern Utah as the Wildcats rode a hot first half (led 47-27 at the break) en route to an easy 91-67 win and cover as three-point favorites. Despite that lopsided result, Weber State did not open as the favorite for this rematch on Saturday. I realize this game is in Cedar City, but my power ratings say the road team should be favored.

Getting back to the concept of the oddsmakers’ error, certainly it’s always possible that one team just had a “good day” and made them (the oddsmakers) look bad. But I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here. Yes, Weber State played a great game Thursday and they were at home (where they are now 7-0 SU this season). But I simply believe they are the better of these two teams. The Wildcats are now 6-1 ATS on the season and have won their last four games (all at home) straight up. They are only 1-3 SU on the road, but two of those losses were against Boise State and BYU, who are quality opponents.

Southern Utah is 10-3 SU, but they have four wins by five points or less and two one-point victories. Like Weber State, the Thunderbirds are undefeated at home (8-0 SU), so the expectation here will be for them to earn a split of this home and home. But it’s telling the line isn’t higher. Again, I think Weber State should be favored. Will the shooting be as lopsided as it was Thursday night? Probably not. But Southern Utah has a LOT of ground to make up and I don’t see that happening in less than 48 hours. 10* Weber State

8* James Madison (12:00 ET): So something will have to give in this Noon ET tip in the Colonial. Northeastern is undefeated in the conference (6-0 SU and ATS) while James Madison is a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. One thing is for sure. The visitors won’t lack motivation in this matchup. They’ve lost six straight times to the Huskies while also failing to cover every game. But this time, the number seems a tad too high. An early line move towards JMU seems to confirm my “suspicions” about this matchup.

Northeastern’s 6-0 start in the CAA has seen them sweep three teams - Elon, Hofstra and College of Charleston. Impressive as that may seem, three of the last four wins have come by five points or less. Now those are three that they played on the road. But still, the Huskies should feel a little fortunate. They just won two close ones last weekend at Charleston where they were slight favorites. The Huskies haven’t been favored by much in any of their conference games to this point. This opened as the largest spread to date. They have not been favored by more than six points in any game this season. 

James Madison has played only one conference game due to opponents’ COVID issues. They won that lone CAA tilt, beating Towson last Saturday by a score of 81-72 as a 2-point road dog. That was the Dukes’ third straight win dating back to Jan 5. Yes, three of their wins this season have been against non-DI teams. But they almost beat VCU as a 20-point underdog on the road, losing that game 82-81. Something that needs to be stated is that JMU has the CAA Player of the Year in Matt Lewis, who went for 30 points last time out and hit 9 of 12 three-pointers. Take the points. 8* James Madison

10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): GCU is a team I’ve played before this season, when they hosted Nevada back on December 11th. They won that game 87-77 as a 1-point dog, at the time improving their won-loss record to a perfect 4-0. A three-game losing streak then followed, but two of those setbacks were by just 1 point and they actually covered all three. They’ve played just four games here in January, winning them all, including a pair of blowouts last week vs. non-DI team Bethesda (CA). The Antelopes’ ATS record this year is 7-1. 

Dixie State is new to D-I this season and the hodge-podge WAC seemed like the ideal landing spot for a team making the jump from Division II. However, as you may have guessed, things haven’t gone all that well for the Trailblazers this season. They are just 4-5 SU, two of those wins coming vs. non-DI teams and the other two coming by a combined four points. It’s a four-game losing streak heading into this game with two of those losses coming by at least 33 points. (Admittedly, one was vs. Gonzaga). 

Going by their 7-1 ATS record, it’s clear that the oddsmakers aren’t giving Grand Canyon enough respect and that continues to be the case with this number, which should be several points higher. Dixie State is among the very worst teams in the country (my own personal power ratings say bottom 15) and I don’t see how they deal with a GCU team that is shooting 53% from the field for the season. Bryce Drew’s Antelopes are the ONLY team in the country to rank Top 10 in both field goal percentage offense and defense! This is a decent team, at least when compared to the rest of the WAC lot. 10* Grand Canyon

8* Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): These Sun Belt foes met on three different occasions in the 2019 calendar year and each time the underdog emerged victorious. Coastal Carolina won 88-75 as a 5-point road dog in January of that year while Troy then returned the favor two months later with a 74-67 upset as 11-point pups. The first meeting of last season saw Troy win 77-59 as a 4.5-point dog. But then a “sense of normalcy” was restored in the second meeting as Coastal Carolina breezed to a 90-60 win and cover as nine-point chalk. That’s the way I think this one is going to go tonight. 

Troy comes in on a three-game losing streak, every loss coming on the road. They were swept at Georgia Southern last weekend, losing 67-64 and 63-56. Offense has been a major problem this season for the Trojans as they’ve failed to score 70 in 9 of their last 10 games vs. D-I opponents. (The exception being a 79-71 home win over Samford). For the season, they are averaging only 61.2 PPG and that number dips to an ugly 56.8 when away from home. Three-point shooting (24.5%) has been abysmal. This team is also only 13-27 ATS its L40 Sun Belt games.

Coastal Carolina is off a 71-68 loss to Georgia State, the only game they played last weekend. They did cover the spread though as seven-point road underdogs. Troy’s lack of offensive punch becomes a real problem when you consider the Chanticleers come in averaging a very healthy 87.1 PPG and that number jumps to 90.0 here in Conway. Granted, that’s somewhat inflated by wins over non-DI opponents, but still the team is shooting 50% from the field at home this season, including 40.6% from three-point range. Way too much firepower from the favorite in this one as CC looks to get back to the top of the conference. 8* Coastal Carolina

10* Eastern Illinois (8:00 ET): Belmont has ruled the Ohio Valley Conference this season with a perfect 8-0 SU record and their only loss of 2020-21 came all the way back on December 5th to Samford. But it is worth noting that one loss did come here at home, a game where the Bruins were 17.5-point favorites. You have to think eventually this team is going to drop an OVC game and while it may not be tonight, the number the Bruins are laying seems quite large against an Eastern Illinois team that’s better than its record. 

Hopefully, Eastern Illinois gets its leading scorer (Josiah Wallace) back from a hamstring injury for tonight’s game. Wallace is second in the OVC in scoring (17.5 PPG) and the team has gone winless since he got hurt. The injury occurred 1/9 vs. Austin Peay, a game which the Panthers ended up losing at the buzzer, 74-71. After shockingly falling at home to Morehead State as seven-point favorites (87-61!), Tony Romo’s alma mater suffered another crushing defeat on Saturday as they fell in OT to Eastern Kentucky.

After three straight losses at home, it’s fair to say Eastern Illinois has underachieved. While the Wallace injury has a lot to do with that, this is a team that has plenty of senior talent and should be better than 3-10 ATS. I look for them to come out fired up here against a team they haven’t beaten since 2015. Belmont just gave up 91 points (no overtime) to Jacksonville State in its last game. Were Wallace to play, that would be a HUGE plus, but I’m taking the points regardless here as EIU should keep it close throughout. 10* Eastern Illinois

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): Memphis played at Tulsa on Sunday and I felt that line was way off. Turns out that I was incorrect in that assessment as the Tigers (who closed -1.5) lost by a single point, 57-56, to fall to 1-9 ATS on the season and 6-5 straight up. It’s certainly been an underwhelming season thus far for Anfernee Hardaway’s team and they’ve had three games postponed since December 30th, meaning the loss to Tulsa is the only time they’ve played this month. But there’s still time to “turn things around” and I believe it happens tonight at home vs. Wichita State. 

Wichita State’s recent form is a lot better than Memphis’ as the Shockers have won seven of eight and covered the last four. They’d had no issues with cancellations until Sunday when they were supposed to travel to SMU. I wonder if that breaks the “momentum.” Yes, I’m fully aware that in their last game the “Wheat Shockers” destroyed Tulsa 72-53, but that was at home. They’ve played just four “true” road games and while they’re 3-1 SU, the record could be worse considering all four games were decided by five points or less.

Memphis has been favored in every game this season, which should tell you something. This is a talented team with five double digit scorers and they play excellent defense, giving up only 58.0 PPG here at home. Wichita State has actually covered six in a row going back to 12/15 as two of their last eight games came against non-DI foes. Other than last time out (vs. Tulsa), they don’t have a dominant conference win to speak of, so I see the respective trends reversing tonight as the home team gets back on track. 8* Memphis

10* Arkansas (9:00 ET): After starting the season 8-0, Arkansas has struggled, losing four of its last five games. But tonight the Razorbacks are matched up against a team they’ve already beaten once this year and that win came on the road with little difficulty. Now they welcome Auburn to Fayetteville where their WL record is still 9-1 SU + they are averaging 88.7 PPG. Auburn has struggled on the road, not just this season (where they are 1-3 SU), but the L3 seasons as they’ve gone 7-17 ATS. Lay the points here.

I remember the first Arkansas-Auburn matchup well as I won by laying the points with Arkansas. The game went down on December 30th and featured plenty of offense with the Hogs winning by a final score of 97-85. Key for me is that they were laying 3.5 points in that one, now they’re laying only slightly more at home. Thus, I’m seeing plenty of value here given how that first game played out. Auburn actually shot 51.9% in the first meeting, including 15 of 27 on three-pointers, yet still lost by double digits at home! 

The Tigers are quite unlikely to match those shooting percentages tonight. They are shooting just 28.4% on the road this season from three-point range. Even with red-hot shooting, they couldn’t beat Arkansas at home. Therefore, I just don’t see much of a path to victory this time. Arkansas has gone cold in its L5 games (39.2 FG%), but given their YTD scoring average (12th in the country!) should bounce back. They shot nearly 50% from the field in the 1st meeting and also had an edge at the FT line, making 77% compared to 58% for Auburn. Those free throw percentages are right in line with the respective season averages. Off a horrible game vs. Alabama, this is a prime “buy low” spot for the Razorbacks, who are holding opponents to just 64.3 PPG in Fayetteville. 10* Arkansas

8* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is flat out rolling right now. It’s 12 straight wins for the Broncos following a season-opening loss at Houston, for which there should be no shame at all (Houston is a top 10 team). All but one of those 12 victories has been by double digits and when I took them on New Year’s Eve (at San Jose State), they won 106-54 as a 22-point favorite! The Broncos are one of a dwindling number of teams in the country that still has a perfect conference record and I see things staying that way tonight against overmatched Fresno State.

The Bulldogs come in at just 5-5 SU on the year and the road has been rather unkind to them. They’ve lost all four previous road games (by an average of 18.5 PPG) and none of them have been close. Last weekend saw FSU get swept in Reno, losing by 14 and 16 in two games vs. Nevada. That’s actually better than they did earlier in the year at Colorado State when they dropped two in a row by a combined 44 points. They’re now at Boise for a pair this week (next game is Friday) and it’s difficult to see how a team that’s 1-5 ATS vs. .500 or better teams competes here. 

Furthermore, four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They are 0-4 ATS as underdogs. They have shot just 38.1% in those four previous road losses and are making only 24% of their three-point attempts. They are also a horrible free throw shooting team. Boise State is 28th in the country in scoring (81.8 PPG) and their average margin of victory in MWC play so far is an eye-popping 23.4 PPG. They allow only 58.4 PPG at home. 8* Boise State

8* Illinois (8:30 ET): There really is no excuse for Illinois to have lost so many games thus far, even though four of the five defeats have come by six points or less (three by 3 pts or less) and the other to #2 Baylor. My own personal power ratings still consider the Fighting Illini a top 10 team in the country, but right now they are on the verge of falling out of the Top 25 in both polls (AP/Coaches) after suffering B2B losses to Maryland and Ohio State in the L9 days. Both those losses came here in Champaign! I can’t see a third straight home loss, so I’ll lay the points against a team the Illini have already beaten this season. 

This is a rematch from 12/23 when Illinois went to Happy Valley and won 98-81 as four-point chalk. Based on that line and result, you can see we are getting some value with the favored side tonight. Penn State shot 53.8% in that first meeting, something they are very unlikely to do here in the rematch as their FG% on the road this season is just 39.7. They allowed Illinois to shoot 55% in the first go-around as I see no reason why the Illini can’t come close to matching that number tonight, given how they are shooting overall (51.3%) for the season. 

Penn State has played just twice since that loss to Illinois last month. They’ve gone down in road games at Purdue and Indiana, the latter taking place Sunday. It was the third game in a row the Nittany Lions allowed at least 80 points. That’s not a good sign when taking on the 7th most efficient offense. Remember what I mentioned earlier, the Illini hung 98 points in the first meeting. Poor starts have doomed Brad Underwood’s team the L2 games. I do not see that happening here. 8* Illinois

10* SE Missouri State (7:00 ET): This is a matchup of two not-so-good Ohio Valley Conference sides and the bottom line is you would want to take the points, no matter who was favored. I’ve got the teams rated virtually even, so there’s really no reason that Tennessee State should be laying this many points … to anyone. They are last in the OVC with a 1-6 SU record and just 2-8 SU overall. While five of those losses have come by four points or fewer (what crummy luck!), I still would never endorse the Tigers as chalk. 

SE Missouri St is just 3-8 SU and 1-4 vs. the rest of the OVC. But they are 5-1 ATS on the road as well. They actually covered the spread at Belmont, notable as that’s the class of the conference and the Bruins also happened to destroy Tennessee State by 25 here in Nashville. Now the RedHawks have just one SU win in their last eight games, but it came against … Tennessee State back on January 2nd! It was an 83-79 win for SEMS, a game that went to double overtime. That the RedHawks won was pretty remarkable when you consider they shot just 35.8% including 5 of 23 from three-point range. 

SEMS has also had poor luck in close games, losing four games that were decided by six points or less. They did win the close one vs. TN State, doing so as 1.5-point chalk. I see no reason why the line should have swung so much for the rematch. As an underdog, the Red Hawks are 6-3 ATS this season with outright wins over UMKC and Lipscomb. Tennessee State has been favored only two other times, one of those being their last game, which they lost outright at Tennessee Tech 74-71. Take the points. 10* SE Missouri State

8* VMI (7:30 ET): These SoCon rivals met three times last year, once in the Conference Tourney, and while East Tennessee State won all three games straight up, it was VMI that covered the spread every time. The losses were by six, five and 13 points and the Keydets have nothing to hang their heads over as East Tenn State was a good team last season. This season, the Buccaneers aren’t quite as strong, hence this line being in the single digits (something that wasn’t the case in any of the three meetings LY). 

VMI is a strong offensive team, which was very evident on Saturday when they defeated The Citadel 110-103. No, there was no overtime. The Keydets are now averaging 82.1 PPG on the season, so it’s going to either take a lot of points by ETSU, or a really strong defensive effort, to cover the number here. VMI is 7-3 ATS on the year, including 4-0 if they allowed 80+ points the previous game. I realize their defense is shaky, but this is a spot the Keydets usually cover in. Also, two of their last four losses have been by two points. 

East Tennessee State is coming off a loss, 78-66 at Wofford where they were 9.5-point underdogs. That was their first game in two weeks, but it was late, not early, that saw them struggle. The Buccaneers can’t score at the rate VMI does and while they are the better defensive team here, I don’t think they’ll be able to contain the opponent enough to cover this large of a spread. ETSU has only been favored in three games so far and only one time by more than 3.5 points. They failed to cover, laying 12.5 to Gardner-Webb. Two of ETSU’s last three opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. 8* VMI

10* St. John’s (2:30 ET): It just feels right to be able to once again call these teams conference rivals. UConn has rejoined the Big East this season and this will be the first meeting w/ St, John’s since 2013. The Huskies not only comes in ranked (#25), but they’ve covered six in a row. The Huskies’ only loss came by two points against Creighton (a top 10 team). They’ve won four straight (SU) since including a 3-0 January record with all those games coming on the road. UConn hasn’t taken the court in a week due to a game with #3 Villanova being postponed. This game will be on FOX Monday afternoon.

St. John’s hasn’t had nearly the amount of problems with COVID cancellations than UConn has. The Red Storm have played nearly twice the number of games the Huskies have and come into today sporting a 7-7 SU record. It’s been a bit of a struggle recently as the team started 5-1, but has now dropped six of its last eight including a 2-point home loss to Marquette on Saturday. As an underdog, the Johnnies have struggled and they are also winless on the road (0-4 SU). They are in both roles Monday, but I’m expecting this to be a strong effort off the narrow loss 48 hours ago. 

This boils down to the fact that I feel UConn is due for a bad game. Coming off a week layoff and playing a rare weekday afternoon game, it just “feels” like this might be it. St. John’s has had several narrow losses, just not Saturday, while UConn’s won a couple close ones. The Huskies are without leading scorer James Bouknight and quite frankly were lucky to beat Depaul last week as they were outrebounded and shot the ball poorly. Depaul was careless with the basketball and that’s why UConn won the game. St. John’s averages almost 80 PPG and will be a lot tougher to beat. Take the points. 10* St. Johns

8* Bradley (4:00 ET): These teams just played Saturday and while Bradley “only” won 69-60, they are still being undervalued for this rematch. The respective shooting percentages from yesterday’s game are very interesting to look at. Bradley shot an incredible 61.4% from the floor while Evansville finished at just 37.7%. You may see those numbers and think there’s no way that kind of difference will repeat itself. But consider Bradley was only 3 of 11 from three-point range (27.3%) while Evansville was 14 of 34 (41.2%).

Making 11 more threes than your opponent and still losing by nine is a pretty bad deal if you’re Evansville (or any other team for that matter). I just don’t see there being any way that discrepancy repeats itself again Sunday. So that’s bad news for the Purple Aces, who made only SIX two-point field goals in yday’s game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a low number! Meanwhile, Bradley shot 24 of 33 from inside the arc, so they’ve got a clear edge down low in this particular matchup. 

Evansville is now just 1-4 SU on the road this season. They are 6-7 SU overall and did cover six straight games at one point, but consider them overachievers as they’ve been favored just twice in their last eight games. They’ve now lost two straight as they fell at home, 73-68, to Illinois State last Sunday. Bradley has won two straight as they beat Northern Iowa by two on Monday. The Braves have won four in a row at home and have beaten Evansville six straight times by an average of 11 PPG. They have huge edges down low and defensively. 8* Bradley

10* Memphis (3:00 ET): Memphis has failed to cover six in a row and is just 2-8 ATS on the season. But things should change today as they face Tulsa for the second time. This spread is as off as any I’ve seen in awhile. The Tigers were 9.5-point favorites when they hosted Tulsa on December 21st. While they lost that game 56-49, my personal power ratings still have them significantly favored in this revenge spot. Oddsmakers opened them as underdogs, which appears to be a mistake as they were quickly bet to the role of favorite. I’ll follow the money on this one. In that first meeting, there wasn’t much offense to speak of. I do find it incredible that Memphis found a way to lose, at home, despite holding Tulsa to just 19 points in the first half! Things took a dramatic turn after the break with the Golden Hurricane outscoring the Tigers 37-22. Neither team shot well with Tulsa making only 34.7% of their FG attempts and Memphis making only 32.1%. The teams combined to go a horrendous 10 of 41 from three-point range. The difference came at the FT line where Tulsa made 17 of 28 compared to just 10 of 21 for Memphis. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had their last three scheduled games all postponed due to COVID, so they should be “itching” to take the court Sunday. They haven’t played since December 29th! So they’ll be fresh. Meanwhile, Tulsa just lost by 19 at Wichita State on Wednesday, snapping a six-game win streak. As well as they’d been playing, the Golden Hurricane come in averaging just 61.7 PPG and Memphis is a stout defensive team. I believe in my power ratings and the fact Memphis is better than its record (they’ve been favored in every game) while Tulsa is not as good as theirs. 10* Memphis

8* Massachusetts (2:30 ET): UMass is 4-3 SU, which has to be considered disappointing as all three SU losses came when they were favored. But those three losses - to Northeastern, Bryant and George Mason - were all by five points or less. So the Minutemen could easily be coming into Sunday with a better won-loss record. They’ve definitely turned things around over the last week or so, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island, the latter being a close game that went their way (80-78) and it was an upset as the Minutemen were three-point home underdogs.

Now they are road favorites and should have little difficulty beating a Fordham team that has yet to break 55 points in any game this season. If you recall, I just played against Fordham Wednesday afternoon when they faced St. Bonaventure. That ended up being a somewhat close call with the Bonnies prevailing 68-54 as 11-point road favorites. The Rams scored only 17 points in the second half as their offensive woes continued. Not only have they yet to score more than 55 in any of their five games, but they are shooting a dreadful 34% from the field, including 23% from three-point range.

As I mentioned in Wednesday’s writeup, Fordham was picked to finish last in the Atlantic 10 this year. You’re starting to see why. Three of their four losses have been by double digits and two of those were by 24 and 37 points. They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country. So this should be easy pickings for a UMass team that is averaging 85.3 PPG. The Minutemen have scored at least 75 in every game and beat La Salle twice, by 19 and 16, which is noteworthy as Fordham lost to the Explorers by 37. 8* Massachusetts. 

10* Florida (4:00 ET): The Gators went almost three weeks without playing a game in December. Since returning to the court “full-time,” they’ve gone 3-2 SU including a key win over Ole Miss, 72-63, in Gainesville earlier in the week. Now they head to Starkville where they’ll take on a Miss State team that lost its “shooting touch” in a 56-55 loss to Texas A&M on Wednesday. That was the fewest points scored in a game by the Bulldogs since the season opener. They had topped 80 in six of their previous eight contests. While the tendency is to back the home team in a bounce back spot, that’s not the case here as Florida is just plain better. 

Of course, the big story this season with Florida was the on-court collapse of Keyontae Johnson, back on 12/12 vs. Florida State. It was after that the team went nearly three weeks without playing. The Gators have also had to endure players missing games due to COVID, such as Scottie Lewis, who did not play in the last game. Things were not looking great following losses to Alabama and Kentucky, but then came the win Tuesday over Ole Miss where the Gators really turned up the defense. Remember that this team beat LSU a couple weeks ago. They are also playing with double revenge here (0-2 vs. Miss St L2 seasons). 

MSU has lost four games this year in which it held a halftime lead. Wednesday vs. Texas A&M was the latest. They led the Aggies by 10 at the break in that one, only to score just 22 points in the 2H. A&M closed the game with a 12-5 run to win by a single point. Don’t be surprised if that has a carryover effect. Florida has had an extra day off (compared to MSU) to prepare here. Miss State struggles to defend the three-point line and you should look out for Florida’s Colin Castleton, who had 21 pts, 10 rebounds and EIGHT blocks in the last game. 10* Florida

10* UAB (5:00 ET): UAB looks to be severely underpriced here. The Blazers have lost only one time (9-1 SU) and that was to Chattanooga (who’s now 11-3 SU) by three points. They were 10.5-point favorites in that lone defeat, which they’ve subsequently bounced back from by beating Southern Miss twice last weekend. But, as double digit favorites, the Blazers did not cover either game vs. Southern Miss. While this is only the second “true” road game of the season, they beat a decent E Tenn State team in the first and that was on the only game (besides today) this season that they DIDN’T go off as a DD favorite. We look to be getting a real discount here. 

Charlotte is 5-5 SU and coming off a terrible loss to a non-DI opponent, Belmont Abbey. That’s the only game the 49ers have played in the L2 weeks. The team had previously won four of five and covered two straight at home vs. Western Kentucky. They did have a couple impressive early season wins, beating South Carolina State by 38 and upsetting Davidson on the road as a 10.5-point dog. But their other three wins have all been by four points or less and they’re a bit lucky to even be .500 at this point. 

Defensively, UAB has been excellent, giving up just 57.0 PPG. That ranks 3rd in the country among teams that have played at least 10 games with the only two allowing fewer being Houston and Tennessee, a pair of Top 10 teams in the country. Charlotte has been through a lot recently with their last two games both going into OT and a COVID 19 cancellation vs. Marshall. Not only did they just shoot only 36.8% against a non-DI team, but they’ve allowed three of the last five opponents to shoot 50% or better. UAB has double revenge and is 5-1 ATS playing with 5 or 6 days rest. 10* UAB

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): The Hoosiers have lost seven straight times to Purdue, a streak that goes back to the 2016-17 season. But this year, IU is clearly the better team and I think they’ll show that Thursday night at Assembly Hall. I was on the Hoosiers Sunday evening when they went to Nebraska and won 84-76 as a six-point favorite. While that ended up being a close game for much of the second half, be aware that IU led by double digits at halftime and was in control most of the way. They’ve now won three of four, the lone loss coming in double overtime at Wisconsin last week. I’m laying the points here.

Purdue is off an upset as they went to East Lansing last Friday and beat Michigan State 55-54 as a six-point dog. We know Sparty is overrated this year, but don’t tell that to the contingent in West Lafayette as they were just happy to win a game after dropping three of their previous four. The Boilermakers have also really been struggling at the betting window where they are just 2-7-1 L10 games. I should mention tonight will be their FOURTH consecutive road game, a tall order no matter the opponent, but when faced with a team that has an argument to be in the Top 25 the task is obviously even more difficult. 

Purdue has played a total of five “true” road games before this. They have been held under 60 points in four of them. That seems troubling when facing a team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home, not to mention just dropped 84 on the road. The Hoosiers are also 14th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are obviously well aware of the losing streak to Purdue and thus should come in supremely motivated here. Tip your cap to Purdue for the win at East Lansing, but they trailed by 15 at halftime and won on a last second shot. 10* Indiana

8* Under California/Colorado (2:00 ET): Cal has gone Over in seven straight games, but this afternoon they are running into an opponent that I feel is among the most underrated teams in the country, that being Colorado. The Buffs scored for us on Monday, beating Utah 65-58 as a 2.5-pt favorite, though they did have to rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit to do so. This is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home where they are allowing just 55.3 points per game thus far. You’ll want to be on the Under here. 

California won its first Pac 12 game of the season Saturday by defeating struggling Washington 84-78. That was the Bears’ highest scoring effort since an 87-56 blowout of CS Northridge back on 12/19. Between those two 80+ point games, Cal was held to 70 or less four straight times. I should also bring up the fact that playing on the road should lead to an obvious decrease in offensive production. The Bears have played five “true” road games thus far and the most they’ve scored in any of them was 69. Four times they were held to 64 or less. 

Colorado is 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they’ve certainly “got the goods” to slow down Cal today. I really can’t believe this team isn’t ranked as my power ratings comfortably have them in the Top 20. It appears as if they are getting Cal at the perfect time as two of the Bears’ key players - Matt Bradley and Kuany Kuany - have been battling injuries and both missed the last game. Bradley is the team’s leading scorer, so if he misses a third straight game, it would be a huge loss. This game was supposed to be played last night, but got bumped back due to COVID protocols. The early afternoon start time may lead to a “sleepy start” for both teams. 8* Under California/Colorado

10* Over Texas A&M/Mississippi State (9:00 ET): Texas A&M really struggles offensively and as a result their last seven games have ALL stayed Under the total. To end a streak such as that, sometimes all it takes is the “right opponent.” In this instance, that’s what we’ve got with Mississippi State, a team that has put up 80+ points in six of its last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored no less than 73 in any of those eight games, so I see them “helping” A&M to its first Over in more than a month. 

As you might have guessed, Over has been the way to go with Miss State as that’s how six of their last nine games have ended up and for some it might be seven of nine. (The 78-63 win over Missouri last week fell very close to the number). On Saturday, the Bulldogs were involved in quite the high-scoring affair as they beat Vanderbilt 84-81. They shot over 60% (31 of 51) in that win and completely overwhelmed the Commodores in the paint, outscoring them there 42-18. What’s truly remarkable about the Bulldogs putting up 84 points in that game is the fact they made only four three-pointers. They attempted only seven! 

But the negative is that they did allow Vandy to make 15 shots from behind the arc. As good as they’ve been offensively, MSU has allowed 73+ points in three of its last four contests. Saturday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 80! So A&M has a shot to get its offense going here. Their three point shooting, below 30% for the season, is certainly due to get better. Of course that won’t matter if the Aggies play defense like they did vs. Tennessee, who they allowed to shoot 58.7% from the floor. This number is way too low for a game involving a team like Miss St. 10* Over Texas A&M/Miss State

8* St. Bonaventure (2:00 ET): We have what appears to be a massive mismatch from the A-10 this afternoon with the Bonnies playing at the long-time dreg of this league, Fordham. The road team comes in at 4-1 SU with the lone loss coming by six at Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve managed to beat a good (but somewhat overrated) Richmond team and then blew out St. Joe’s 83-57 last week. I don’t see any reason why the Bonnies shouldn’t win in blowout fashion again today as they face an opponent that has yet to score more than 55 points in a game this season. 

Fordham last’s game was played on Saturday and they did hang in there against Duquesne, “only” losing by three points (48-45!) as 13.5-point road underdogs. That came on the heels of the Rams’ only win of the season, a shocking 55-54 upset of Dayton here at home where they were 12-point underdogs. Prior to that, they lost by 24 and 37 to George Washington and LaSalle. Because of COVID-19, the Rams’ season didn’t even get underway until December 30th. It’s not like there was much to look forward to as they were predicted to finish LAST in the conference in the preseason poll. 

With Fordham’s offensive numbers being so dreadful, I just don’t see how they keep pace in this one. Yes, they’ve been able to rely on their defense to cover the L2 games and pull the one outright upset. But St. Bonaventure comes in averaging a solid 73.4 PPG. Furthermore, they defend the three-point line quite well as is evident by the fact their opponents are shooting just 25.7% from there for the season. Fordham is 341st in offensive efficiency this season (out of 357 teams). The Bonnies have covered six straight times against them and today should make it seven. 8* St. Bonaventure

10* Marquette (9:00 ET): This Tuesday night Big East battle is critical for both teams, but especially Marquette, who has failed to cover in five straight games. The lone SU win during that stretch was by four against Georgetown (on Jan 2), but that was quickly followed with an 11-point home loss to UConn. Friday’s game at Villanova had to be postponed and there’s a good chance (given ‘Nova is the #3 ranked team in the country) that would have been yet another defeat. I view the postponement as a huge break for the Golden Eagles as they come into tonight well rested (full week off) while the opponent (Providence) is playing its second road game in three days. 

Let’s also not forget that Marquette holds victories over both Wisconsin and Creighton. Those are both top 10 teams! So the fact they’ve been struggling so much in conference play confounds me a bit. Against UConn, they were up 18 (in the second half!) but were on the wrong end of a 42-13 run down the stretch (what?!) and scored just two points over the final 4:44. Still, I don’t think there’s any reason to panic. At home this year, the Golden Eagles are allowing a FG% of 37.9! Their own shooting, which has been poor the L2 games, should improve here against a team that’s not very good defensively. 

Providence is coming off B2B losses by a combined three points. They lost by two at home to Creighton on Jan 2, then by one at Xavier on Sunday. The loss to Xavier was particularly brutal as the Friars shot better than 51% for the game and led by seven with just over a minute to go. They allowed the game’s final eight points and the winning basket, a three-pointer, came with just 0.1 seconds left on the clock. I find it hard to believe Providence is going to be able to recover from a defeat such as that with such a short turnaround between games. They are 1-6 ATS playing with one or less days rest the L3 seasons, including 0-2 this season. Not only does the schedule work in Marquette’s favor here, they’ve got the added motivation of double revenge for a pair of losses to the Friars last season. 10* Marquette

8* Akron (3:00 ET): You may not know this, but Northern Illinois is atrocious. At 1-9 SU, the Huskies can be found among the bottom 25 teams in the country in my personal power ratings. They are the lowest rated MAC team. The one win came against a Chicago State team that could be the worst in the entire country and actually just suspended its season. But coming off a surprise loss at Eastern Michigan on Saturday, don’t look for favored Akron to take the Huskies lightly. Rather, they can sense the “blood in the water” and should win here in blowout fashion. 

The Zips were hoping for a convincing win Saturday in Ypsilanti, but were instead upset by Eastern Michigan as 5.5-point chalk. They scored a season-low 59 points as they shot just 25% from 3-point range. Turning it over 17 times didn’t help matters either. I think they re-discover the shooting touch Tuesday as NIU just allowed its previous opponent (Miami OH) to shoot 53.2%. It was almost exactly one year ago that Akron came here to DeKalb and won 72-49 as 2.5-pt favorites. 

Northern Illinois has been dreadful at the offensive end, averaging only 58.8 PPG. They’ve topped 64 only twice, against Ball State on 12/8 and Ohio on 1/5 . That Ohio game is the only one the Huskies have covered as it was a 3-point loss. Saturday’s 70-58 loss to Miami was already the sixth double digit loss (in 10 games) for the Huskies. They are now 5-14 ATS the L3 seasons coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less.The favorite won’t mess around in this afternoon game. 8* Akron

8* Colorado (6:00 ET): Colorado may or may not enter the rankings when the new Top 25 poll is released later today. Regardless they SHOULD be included as my power rankings like this team quite a bit, calling them the Pac 12’s best. They just beat Oregon 79-72 on Thursday and that’s significant because the opponent they face tonight (Utah) just lost to the Ducks on Saturday (here in Salt Lake City) by a score of 79-73. Colorado also holds a recent victory over USC, who destroyed the Utes 64-46 three days later. Oddsmakers opened this line way too low and I’m jumping on it. 

Troubling for Utah is the fact they shot 55.8% against Oregon and still lost. It’s a virtual certainty that the Utes will not shoot that well again tonight. Against USC, they made only 27.9% of their field goal attempts. While it may not get that dire again this evening, Colorado is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and allows only 62.6 PPG. The fact Utah blew a 10-point halftime lead against Oregon may carry over here. 

While Utah has the home court edge tonight, that obviously doesn’t mean a ton in 2021. Colorado has the edge in rest as they haven’t played since Thursday while Utah’s game with Oregon was on Saturday. This game was originally going to be played on March 6th, but got bumped up because Colorado’s game with Oregon State (scheduled for Saturday) was postponed. Utah HC Larry Krystowiak seems to be tinkering with his lineup while Colorado will have the best player on the floor in McKinley Wright IV. Lay the short number. 8* Colorado

10* Indiana (6:00 ET): Similar to yesterday’s GOW winner on Texas Tech, I’ve got this line a lot higher than it actually is. With a 7-5 SU record, Indiana obviously isn’t going to merit much conversation for the Top 25. But my power ratings DO consider them a Top 25 team. Consider that four of their five losses this year have been to Top 25 teams with the most recent (Thursday) coming in double overtime at #8 Wisconsin. That was the third loss to a team rated in my own Top 10, two of them in OT. The Big 10 gauntlet is tough for everybody, but Nebraska is probably the worst team in the conference. So look for the Hoosiers to win big Sunday. 

Nebraska has lost four in a row coming into this game and they haven’t been all that competitive. While they covered their last game, as a nine-point underdog here at home vs. Michigan State, that was actually the Cornhuskers’ first ATS victory since November 28th (and just the second of the season). They lost by seven to Sparty, but before that their previous five losses had all been by double digits. They lost here in Lincoln as a five-point favorite to Nevada. Their only three wins this year have been vs. McNeese State, North Dakota State and Doane College.

IU won all three meetings w/ Nebraska last season, all of the wins coming by six or more points. Right before the season shut down, they ended the Cornhuskers’ season with a 25-point beatdown in the Big 10 Tournament. Nebraska is being outscored by 17 PPG so far in Big 10 play and isn’t likely to match the kind of shooting we saw from them vs. Michigan State. Defensively, Indiana is allowing just 40.7% shooting for the year. I think this is where they break out offensively, even without Armaan Franklin. 10* Indiana

10* Texas Tech (4:00 ET): Texas Tech remains one of the more talented teams in the country, but they really need to start covering some games. A failure to cover the 16.5-point spot vs. Kansas State earlier this week made it seven consecutive ATS losses for the Red Raiders, who come in at #19 in the country for Saturday’s tilt with Iowa State. This is certainly a game that the contingent from Lubbock should win as ISU is just 2-6 SU and coming off games vs. Baylor and Texas. So I’ll lay the points in this Big 12 matchup. 

Not sure what Iowa State did to the schedule markers, but this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of games for the Cyclones. As I just mentioned, in the past week they’ve had to take on both Baylor and Texas, a pair of Top 4 teams. They lost by 11 to Baylor and by 6 to Texas, so the ‘Clones were competitive and in fact covered the spread in both games. But what will they have left as they prepare for a third straight game against a top five defense in the country? Texas Tech makes you work at the offensive end and I’m just not sure ISU is gonna have much left in the tank here. 

Last season, Texas Tech swept the season series from Iowa State, winning by 20 and 30 points. So this is an opponent they’ve dominated in the past. I think it’s critical to note that while Texas Tech “only” won by 11 its last time out and Iowa State “only” lost by six its last time out, the margins were bigger for a substantial portion of those games. Iowa State has beaten only two teams this year: Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Jackson State. Some of that is due to the brutal schedule, but they did lose here in Ames to South Dakota State and were blown out (by 28) at Iowa. Texas Tech slams the door here. 10* Texas Tech

10* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Seeing Cleveland State atop the Horizon League with a 6-0 record is not something I expected to see, especially after the Vikings were throttled 101-46 by Ohio U one month ago. In that game, CSU found itself on the wrong end of a record-setting 40-0 run (spanning both halves). That’s right; they gave up 40 consecutive points to the opponent without scoring one themselves! Since that time, the Vikings are 7-0 ATS and have won six in a row in league play, sweeping IPFW, Youngstown State and IUPUI. It’s a run that’s bound to come to an end and in the words of Neil Young, “tonight’s the night!” 

Northern Kentucky is off its own sweep of IPFW last week, winning those two home games by seven and two points. The Norse were expected to be one of the Horizon’s top teams this season (#3 in preseason poll) and have started conference play 3-1 SU. While they’ve yet to win a “true” road game in 2020-21, they’ve had great success here at CSU in the past, going 4-1 SU/ATS L5 visits. I was impressed that they were able to win their last game despite only SEVEN free throw attempts (made them all). One area where I expect NKU to improve tonight is their 3-point shooting as they are hitting just 28.4% from behind the arc thus far. 

Pegged for seventh in the preseason Horizon League poll, it is definitely a surprise to see Cleveland State in 1st place sporting a 6-0 SU/ATS record. The Vikings started the season outside the top 300 in my power ratings. Give them some credit, but two of the three teams they’ve swept are expected to be the bottom two in the league. Also, only one of the six victories has been by more than 10 points. The Vikings have been terrible for years, averaging just 11 wins per season since 2017-18! Trust me when I say that the better team is getting points here. 10* Northern Kentucky

8* BYU (8:30 ET): So far, only one team (West Virginia) has been able to stay within single digits of #1 Gonzaga. It’s tough to find many flaws with the top-ranked team in the country as they’ve shot the ball at 50% or better in every game but WVU (were 49.3%) and the last six wins have all come by 23+ points. They even defeated Kansas and Iowa, two teams I consider to be Top 10 in the country, by double digits. But eventually the Zags are due for an “off-night.” All we need here is BYU to stay within 17 points, which I believe is very plausible. 

BYU beat Gonzaga last February by 13 points. They did it by holding the Zags to 5 of 25 shooting from 3-point range. Now that game was played in Provo, but note the Cougars have won both of their road games this season and those were not “easy” games at Utah State and San Diego State. The Cougars have played just one bad game all year and that was against USC on December 1st. Other than that, their only loss was by just four points to Boise State. They are more than capable of “hanging” with Gonzaga tonight. 

The win over San Diego State marked the only other time previous to this that BYU was an underdog this season. They were even favored in the USC game, which should tell you that this is a pretty talented team. Tonight is the start of a brutal stretch of three road games (at St Mary’s and San Francisco next week), so BYU does not want to start their 2021 with a blowout loss. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, so you have to expect that they’re ready for the challenge. I don’t expect them to win, but they will keep it close. Take the points. 8* BYU

10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado (8:30 ET): Here’s an “off the radar” game that quickly caught my attention. Even though Northern Colorado has gone Under in each of its last five games, I think the total is too low here. This will be the first of two meetings with Montana State over the next three days and tonight is also Montana State’s Big Sky opener. Take the Over. 

So far, Montana State has been real “feast or famine” on the offensive end of the floor. They have three games with more than 90 points scored and two with under 60 points scored. While two of the three strong efforts came at home against non-DI teams, the Bobcats did manage to score 91 in a season-opening win at UNLV. One area I definitely see improving is the Bobcats’ 43.2% shooting from INSIDE the 3-point line. That number is just awful and HAS to improve. They do shoot pretty well from three-point range (37.5%) so I see no reason why they can’t improve the shooting when closer to the basket. 

Northern Colorado has failed to reach 70 points in any of its last five games, a stretch which has seen them shoot very poorly as well. Again, you’ve got to expect improvement in that department. The Over is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times Montana State has been an underdog and a perfect 6-0 the L6 times they’ve been off a SU win. They scored 96 points in their previous game, a win over Montana Western on New Year’s Day. 10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado

8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): The Bearcats have lost five in a row, the last four all coming as favorites. They are 1-7 ATS on the season (2-6 SU). So clearly they are underperforming. But all of their losses have come vs. teams in the top 100 of my power rankings. Three of the last four have been by five points or less. So I relish the opportunity to take this team as an underdog, something that they’ve been only one other team this season (vs. Tennessee). The Bearcats have played a much more difficult schedule than SMU to this point, so I view the respective won-loss records to be very misleading (which is reflected in the spread). 

SMU just suffered its first loss of the year and it came here at home, 74-60 to Houston. Now Houston is obviously a very good team. But the Cougars also happened to be the first “good” team SMU had faced all season. The only other game they’ve played that was expected to be competitive was at Dayton, which they won by just two points. 

Two things that HAVE to improve for Cincinnati here are their 3-point shooting (just 26% on the year) and the amount of times they turn the ball over (21.1% of all possessions). One would think that those numbers can ONLY get better. The Bearcats have beaten SMU seven straight times by an average of 13 PPG, so this is a matchup they’ve definitely done well with in the past. I see no reason why Cincy should be struggling as much as they are. They were competitive against everyone except Georgia (lost by 15 on the road) and SMU’s 6-1 SU record just seems phony. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): I think it’s fair to say that most expect Furman to be the pace setter in the underrated SoCon this season. This was a strong conference last year and the teams we’ll be focusing in on today are likely competing for “who’s #2” (behind Furman). We’ve got UNC Greensboro, who is off an upset loss to East Tenn State (who was another good team from this conference LY) visiting Wofford. This is a very significant game for the visitors, not just because of the upset loss Saturday, but also because they have had problems beating Wofford in the past. I think they do so here. Take the points.

The previous two seasons have seen Wofford go 5-0 ATS, 4-1 SU against UNCG, which includes a win in the 2019 SoCon Tournament They are 7-1 ATS the L8 meetings as well. However, the majority of those games were close. Four were decided by four points or less and both games last year went into OT. UNCG ended its four-game losing streak to Wofford with an 83-79 win in the most recent meeting, but obviously did not cover as 9-point chalk. 

I think that a key to handicapping this matchup is the expectation that we will see a reversal of “shooting fortunes” from each team’s last game. UNC Greensboro shot a dreadful 32.8% from the floor in the loss to ETSU, a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points (lost 71-61). Led by Isaiah Miller, arguably the best player in the SoCon, I expect a much better effort on the offensive end tonight from the Spartans. Meanwhile, I don’t think there’s any chance Wofford matches the 63.3% shooting we saw against Samford on Sunday. UNCG is simply better at the defensive end. 10* UNC Greensboro

10* Michigan State (9:00 ET): Michigan State became drastically overrated because of a win over Duke (another overrated team) on December 1st. That was the last time they’ve covered a spread! It’s seven straight ATS losses for the Spartans heading into tonight’s home game vs. Rutgers. While I do think Sparty remains overrated at #23 in the country, the same can be said for Rutgers at #15 and I think this is where Tom Izzo’s team “gets back on track” ATS. They did just win at Nebraska Saturday, 84-77, as 9.5-pt favorites. 

I had MSU when they beat Duke back on 12/1. It was the start of this incredible 87-55-2 run I’m on entering Tuesday. You wouldn’t have known the Spartans were overrated by that performance, which saw them up double digits most of the 2H en route to a 75-69 “upset” in Durham. They did have three more “comfortable” wins after beating Duke, but were favored by 23 or more in all three. That partly explains the ATS skid. But opening Big 10 play at 0-3 was a “head-turner,” even though two of the losses were on the road and the other game was played on Christmas. I just can’t see them losing tonight at the Breslin Center though. 

Rutgers is off a 2-point home loss to Iowa, which no doubt took something out of them. While the Scarlet Knights did beat Illinois earlier in the year, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 12-point loss to Ohio State. That’s the only loss besides Iowa, but I can’t look past what a challenging spot this is as they are back on the road facing a second straight Top 25 team. Michigan State was up 17 on Saturday, so don’t let the single digit MOV fool you and they are 9-0 against Rutgers since becoming conference rivals. 10* Michigan State

8* Texas (8:00 ET): I suppose you could say this is a “letdown spot” for Texas coming off their incredibly impressive dismantling of #6 Kansas over the weekend. The Longhorns won in Lawrence, 84-59 as a 4.5-point dog, which has to be placed among the very best single-game performances by any team so far in this College Basketball season. It was the second largest road win over an AP Top 5 team in HISTORY and vaulted the 8-1 Longhorns into the top five themselves. The good news for tonight is that they don’t have to be nearly as good against an Iowa State team that’s in a trick spot itself. 

Iowa State just played Baylor over the weekend, so the schedule makers are doing them no favors by sending them to Austin right after that matchup. I was a little surprised the Cyclones were able to stay within the number against #2 Baylor, losing only 76-55 as a 15.5-point dog. But the game was in Ames. ISU is the only winless team in conference play in the Big 12. They are 0-3 and let’s not forget how they were obliterated by Iowa on the road, losing by 28. Their only win in the L6 games came against Jackson State. 

Considering Baylor didn’t even play its best game and still beat ISU by 11 on the road, I see no reason why Texas doesn’t prevail by double digits here in Austin. My own power ratings have this spread much higher, at about 17 points. The Longhorns probably are thinking “payback” here after they were blown out in Ames (lost by 29) last season. Texas showed that it is one of the best defensive teams in the country (#4 in efficiency) on Saturday and Iowa State has been held to 65 points or less by each of its previous four opponents. This one could get ugly in a hurry. 8* Texas

8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State (9:00 ET): Honestly, I sort of think the wrong team may be favored here. Wyoming just won here, 78-74, on Saturday and is now 7-1 on the season. Their only loss came by two points to Texas Southern in the second game of the season. But beating the same opponent on the road twice in three days is a pretty tall order and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to win here the other night. So I’m looking at the Under, something that hasn’t cashed a lot in Wyoming games this season, but will tonight. 

That lone Wyoming loss saw them blow a 19-point halftime lead in Laramie, so this is a team that probably “should” still be undefeated. The Over is 6-1 their last seven games, but they have not shot the ball all that well nor have they defended that poorly. Their tempo isn’t that fast. They have shot 44% from three-point range in three “true” road games though and that’s a number that’s due to come down. They were 12 of 30 from behind the arc Saturday and also 22 of 26 from the free throw line. Don’t look for them to match those kinds of numbers tonight though. 

It was just a 33-31 game at halftime when these teams played Saturday before the scoring really picked up in the second half. Fresno State actually shot much better overall than Wyoming, but was undone by a lack of three-point shooting (just 5 of 16) and by going just 15 of 22 from the FT line. There were a LOT of free throws made in the final six minutes Saturday, taking a game which looked like a sure Under (game was 58-57 with 6:43 left) to an Over. FSU is 7-3 Under when playing with revenge for a home loss. 8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State

10* So Illinois (6:00 ET): Drake looks to continue its improbable start to the season here as it hosts Southern Illinois Sunday night in a battle of Missouri Valley heavyweights. The Bulldogs are not only 11-0 SU, but also 9-0 against the spread! They opened conference play by sweeping a pair of road games at Larry Bird’s alma mater (Indiana State), winning by 18 and 7. This will be the first of two games in two days vs. SIU and you can bet Drake will be motivated since they lost both games to the Salukis last season. 

Southern Illinois is no slouch in its own right. They too were unbeaten heading into their last game, which turned out to be a shocking 84-72 loss to Evansville in Carbondale. The Salukis were eight-point favorites in that one having just defeated the Purple Aces the day before. This team covered the spread each of its first five tries this season and that includes outright wins over Murray State and Butler, the only other two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21. They won here as a 6-point dog, 79-72, a year ago. 

There is no doubt that Drake is going to be fired up for this double revenge spot, however, eventually the Bulldogs’ improbable ATS run has to come to a halt. Not only are they 9-0 ATS this season, they are 47-26 ATS the L3 seasons! Talk about making the oddsmakers look bad! You just don’t see an ATS record like that very often and the Bulldogs are even 30-12 ATS L42 as a favorite. But Southern Illinois is as tough an opponent as they will have faced so far this season and I’m taking the points with an angry dog off a loss. The Salukis led that last game at the half before Evansville caught fire from three-point range. Meanwhile, in their last game, Drake actually went into the break trailing Indiana State. 10* So Illinois

10* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from yesterday, a situation we’re going to be seeing plenty of this College Hoops season. Little Rock prevailed on Friday, winning 102-93 as four-point chalk. In what was one of the most insane things I have ever witnessed, the Trojans shot 70% from the floor including 9 of 14 from three-point range. Three months from now, my guess is that we’ll still be able to call that game Little Rock’s best offensive effort of the season. I’m taking the points with the revenge-minded underdog here. 

Now UT Arlington obviously needs to shore things up defensively today. The good news is that Little Rock hardly attempted a high volume of threes yesterday. The Trojans went into Friday averaging just six makes per game from behind the arc, so don’t expect them to go wild from deep again here. Nor can they possibly match yesterday’s overall shooting effort. The key is to try and hold Little Rock under 72 points, which - despite what happened yday - is doable. UT Arlington is 4-0 SU this season when holding the opposition under 72 points. 

The Mavericks are a good three-point shooting team as they are making about 10 per game, which places them second best among Sun Belt teams. In particular, keep an eye out for both Wells and Griffin, the team’s most lethal marksmen from behind the arc. This is a really big game for UT Arlington, not just because they are seeking to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play, but also they are 0-5 SU their L5 visits to Little Rock. I thought they might be the right side going into yday and will back them here today. 10* UT Arlington

8* Arkansas (12:00 ET): So this is a battle of my most overrated (Missouri) and underrated (Arkansas) teams in the country. The road team comes in ranked #12 while the home team is unranked. My own personal power ratings say it should be just the opposite. That’s something that does not happen very often. Sure enough, I just cashed Arkansas in their first road game of the season (at Auburn) Wednesday. That same night I faded Mizzou as they got blown out (at home) by Tennessee for their first loss of the season. Now I can take advantage of the power rating discrepancies on both teams in the same game! 

It speaks volumes that an unranked team would be favored over #12, even at home. Of course, I’m not surprised as I heavily touted Arkansas earlier in the week. The Razorbacks are 9-0 SU with an average margin of victory approaching 27 PPG. Every win this season has been by double digits. My power ratings call them a Top 15 team in the country. They are a senior-laden team that continues to get the job done defensively, allowing an opposing field goal percentage of just 37.7. Of course, the Hogs are pretty good at the offensive end as well with four straight games of 85 or more points. 

Meanwhile, Missouri has had trouble scoring in B2B games. Even before getting held to just 53 by Tennessee, the Tigers could only muster 54 in a nail-biter over Bradley (won that game by 1 point). Both those games were in Columbia. This will be just the 2nd “true” road game for the Tigers and easily the toughest yet. When these teams met here in Fayetteville last season, the Razorbacks held Mizzou to just 4 of 21 shooting from three-point range. The Tigers’ 3-pt shooting has gotten no better this year (only 27.3%!) and Arkansas just allowed Auburn to shoot better than 50% from behind the arc and still won by 12. Mizzou is getting too much credit for its upset of Illinois. They were picked to finish 10th in the SEC in the preseason poll. 8* Arkansas

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): What a wild season Oakland (MI) has had. The Golden Grizzlies opened by losing their first nine games. But then they were fortunate enough to run into in-state rival Detroit Mercy right before the New Year. They won both games there, 77-75 as a 4-point underdog and 83-80 as a three-point underdog. Only one Oakland game this season has stayed Under (1st one vs. Detroit) and I had the Under in that one, which cashed despite the game going into overtime. Quietly, Oakland has covered seven of its last nine, though you should be aware that this very much remains a bad team. 

Wright State is one of the perennial favorites in the Horizon League and they come into the New Year riding a six-game win streak. They too swept Detroit Mercy on the road, winning those games by 23 and 13 points. Back home, the Raiders then swept Green Bay, winning both of those games by double digits as well. In fact, all six WSU wins this season have been of the double digit variety. Tonight certainly seems like quite the favorable matchup as they’ve won and covered seven straight against Oakland, six of those wins coming by 12 points or greater. 

Not sure if it’s the fact Oakland is off B2B wins or that they’ve been covering more often than not lately, but this line seems awfully low. My own power ratings project this to be yet another “safe” double digit victory for the Raiders. This is a team that’s been able to score at least 85 points in four of its last five contests. They are tops in the Horizon League in scoring. Oakland has not shot the ball well all year long and they don’t exactly play quality defense either. Prior to facing Detroit, the Grizzlies had not topped 73 (points) in any game. They are allowing an average of 85.5 PPG. 10* Wright State

10* Boise State (8:30 ET): Those who have followed my picks through the years know it’s quite “unlike me” to play a road favorite of this size (in any sport). But there are always exceptions to be made and in this particular instance we will be going against one of the worst teams in all of College Basketball, San Jose State. Factoring out some of the smaller conferences you may not follow, it could be argued that SJSU is the worst team in a “major” conference. In terms of teams whose games are always lined, I’d say they ARE the worst. They are 0-4 SU/ATS so far vs. D-I teams with three of those losses coming by 33+ points. 

Boise State opened Mountain West play by sweeping a couple games from New Mexico. Neither game was close as the Broncos won by a combined 61 points! Overall, BSU has won six straight since suffering a 10-point loss in the opener to a very good Houston team. That includes an upset, on the road, of BYU where the Broncos were getting 3.5 from the oddsmakers. I expect tonight’s game to go very much along the lines of the pair vs UNM last week where Boise St shot almost 60% from the field! 

This really is a total mismatch. Boise State has won the previous seven meetings by an average of 22 PPG. The last five have all been decided by at least 18 points with four of them coming by 23 or more. The Broncos are #14 in the country in terms of points allowed per game, giving up only 58.0. San Jose State is allowing a frightening 88.4 PPG so far while averaging only 66.6 itself. Led by Derrick Alston Jr, the visitors can name the score tonight and they’ll head into 2021 off a very comfortable win (by the way, they get to play SJSU again on Saturday). 10* Boise State

8* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I talk about my own personal power ratings a lot. Here they are quite instructive as they very much agree with the fact that Tennessee deserves to be ranked among the top seven teams in the country. However, they vehemently disagree with the pollsters assessment of Missouri (who is ranked #12) as I’ve got them comfortably OUTSIDE the top 25. Thus, it makes perfect sense to lay the short number with the Volunteers in this battle of unbeaten SEC teams Wednesday night.

With conference play set to commence tonight, we’re going to learn a lot about the SEC in the coming weeks. Everyone knows about Kentucky’s struggles. But you’ve got three unbeaten teams (Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri) that are viewed as question marks. Personally, I think Arkansas is the 2nd best team in the conference, not Missouri. But there’s no disputing the fact that Tennessee looks every bit the part of the favorite to win the league in 2020-21. The Vols have smashed their first six opponents, winning by an average of 28.1 PPG. 

Tennessee has covered five of its six games, the lone exception being the last game when they were -33.5 vs. USC Upstate and won by 20. The competition has not exactly been “fierce” and critics will point to the fact Missouri has already beaten Illinois here in Columbia as a “sign” they can get it done tonight. But the Tigers’ wins have been a lot closer (than Tennessee’s) this season and they almost lost to Bradley (won 54-53) last week. A big key here is that UT doesn’t turn the ball over much while Mizzou forces very few turnovers. The Vols are also #2 in the country right now in scoring defense. 8* Tennessee

10* Arkansas (7:00 ET): An unbeaten team playing its first “true” road game is normally something I would tend to fade, but not here as I feel 8-0 Arkansas is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Razorbacks are not ranked, but my own personal power ratings say they are among the 20 best teams in the country right now. They’ve got double revenge on the mind tonight as they visit 6-2 Auburn, who won last season’s only meeting 79-76 in overtime (in Fayetteville). The Hogs aren’t ready to lose yet! 

Auburn has played well at home so far (4-0, +19.0 PPG) but they’ve hardly faced a “murderer’s row.” South Alabama, Texas Southern, Troy and Appalachian State were the victims and the Tigers came in as DD favorites for all four games. It’s quite the opposite here as they get ready for their toughest game since a blowout loss to Gonzaga last month. Auburn is a young team with three freshmen accounting for roughly half the team’s scoring this year. Turning the ball over has been an issue, though so far it’s been alleviated by an ability to clean up on the offensive glass.

Arkansas is a much more veteran team than Auburn with four seniors doing the majority of their scoring. This is a better defensive team than Auburn as the Razorbacks are #32 in the country in defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot just 41.2% from INSIDE the arc and 27.5% from three-point range. Auburn shoots a high volume of threes, but does not make many (29.2%). Arkansas is also even better on the offensive glass than Auburn and doesn’t turn the ball over nearly as much (only 15.6% of total possessions). They are simply better and should be a bigger favorite here. 10* Arkansas

10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama (9:00 ET): All six Ole Miss games have stayed Under this year, which is quite the streak to start a season. The Rebels are holding the opposition to just 52.3 PPG, but look at who they’ve played: Jackson State, UNC Wilmington, Central Arkansas, Middle Tenn, Tenn-Martin to name a few. Tonight they head to Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team that’s averaging almost 80 PPG. Look for this to be the first time Ole Miss goes Over the total this season. 

The Crimson Tide’s scoring average would be even better if not for a “clunker” against Clemson on December 12th where they finished with just 56 points. They’ve gone over 80 in all five wins and they are slight favorites here. They haven’t played since last Tuesday, which was an 85-69 win over East Tenn State. While that was a game they were expected to win by DD, they’ve also put up 80+ against the likes of Furman (who is very good), UNLV and Providence. On the flip side, the Tide have given up 71+ points five times already.

Ole Miss scored a season-high 90 points in their most recent game, which was last Tuesday vs. Tenn Martin. Still the game didn’t go Over as they allowed just 43 points against a very bad team. Something that sticks out to me is that neither of these SEC teams have shot the ball very well from three-point range thus far. Ole Miss is down at 28.8% while Bama is at 30.2%. Look for that to change tonight. In terms of adjusted tempo, Alabama is in the top 30 nationally. They are 23-13 Over in all home games the L3 seasons. 10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama

10* Colorado (9:30 ET): We’ve got two 6-1 teams from the Pac 12 here, although recent form has been quite different for Colorado and Arizona. The Buffaloes, whose only loss came to Tennessee (a top 10 team), have won four in a row and all four wins have been by double digits. Arizona’s only loss came in the Pac 12 opener (78-75 at Stanford) and they’ve now failed to cover three straight following a closer than expected call last week vs. Montana (won by only 6 as 15-point chalk).

This game was originally going to be played on December 2nd, but got postponed due to COVID. While neither of these teams come in ranked, my own personal power ratings say Colorado should be and that they are a top 15 team in the country! Even in Tucson, I feel the Buffaloes should be favored. Holding Tennessee (who averages over 80 PPG) to just 57 is a pretty significant achievement as far as I’m concerned. They are top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are pretty good at forcing their opponents to turn the ball over. 

Arizona actually trailed Montana by seven at halftime last Tuesday. That’s not a good sign. While the Wildcats have always been a strong home team, they don’t have anything resembling a quality win this year and I barely consider them to be a top 50 team. They have lived at the FT line this season (9th most attempts in D-I), but Colorado doesn’t foul all that much and ranks 30th in keeping opponents OFF the FT line. Arizona has gotten 43% of its scoring this season from two freshmen and that seems unsustainable. Keep an eye on Colorado’s senior guard McKinley Wright IV. The home team has won 10 in a row in this Pac 12 rivalry (oddity!) but this is the Buffs’ chance to make a statement on the road. 10* Colorado

8* Indiana State (5:00 ET): The fact these teams are playing for the second time in as many days is something you’re going to see a lot more of this College Hoops season. Yesterday, Drake turned in a huge second half performance to win here in Terre Haute, 81-63 as a three-point favorite. The Bulldogs are now not only 10-0 SU, but a remarkable 8-0 ATS. Full disclosure - I had Indiana State yday, a rare misfire, but it’s certainly worth noting that it was a one-point game at halftime. In a unique “do-over” opportunity, I see Larry Bird’s alma mater ending Drake’s unbeaten run on Monday. 

Every one of Drake’s 10 victories this year has been by double digits. So give them credit. However, as I said in yday’s analysis, the schedule has been weak thus far with two non-DI opponents and just three “true” road games (yday being the 3rd). It was a tie game early in the 2H Sunday when the Bulldogs went on a 9-0 run to seize control. They scored 50 pts after halftime, which is somewhat ridiculous, and shot 54.1% for the game (including 9 of 18 from 3-pt range). Duplicating a performance like that, in the same place with no rest, seems unlikely. 

ISU was 3-0 SU at home this year before losing yday and 24-6 L30 home games overall. Their only two losses previous to Sunday came against Purdue and St. Louis, both of whom are very good. Not only are the Sycamores looking to exact some revenge for yesterday, but they are also 0-7 ATS L7 games vs. Drake. So some serious payback is in order tonight. ISU didn’t shoot well yday (38.8%) and truthfully has been pretty cold from the floor in the L4 games. But they are due to “heat up” at the same time Drake is due to cool off. Take the points. 8* Indiana State

10* Indiana State (1:00 ET): Drake is not only 9-0 straight up, they are also 7-0 against the spread to start the season (two games vs. non-board teams). But the Bulldogs haven’t really beaten anyone of note since the season opener at Kansas State. Sunday afternoon finds them traveling to Terre Haute for the MVC opener. While this is a rivalry Drake has largely dominated at the betting window (8-1 ATS L9, 6-0 L6), ISU did win the most recent meeting, 58-56 back in January, on this floor. Close games have also been common with four of the past six head to head matchups being decided by six points or fewer.

Indiana State has played just five games so far and is 3-2 SU. Both losses are quite excusable as they were on the road against Purdue and St. Louis. The Sycamores are 3-0 SU at home after their most recent game, a 72-66 win over SE Missouri State on Tuesday. While the final margin ended up being just six points, ISU started the game with a 9-0 run and never trailed. They were up double digits for most of the second half.

Every one of Drake’s wins this season has been by double digits, so give them credit. But this will be just the third “true” road game of the season and only the second in the L30 days. Again, the schedule has been weak with two non-DI opponents, not to mention the likes of South Dakota, Chicago State and North Dakota. A side note: these teams are also playing tomorrow. I absolutely think Drake’s unbeaten run ends here in Terre Haute and Larry Bird’s alma mater is worth taking the points Sunday afternoon. They are 24-6 SU L30 home games. 10* Indiana State

10* Under Oakland/Detroit (4:00 ET): Both of these Horizon League squads are pretty bad defensively, but they should get a much welcome “reprieve” by facing each other. I say that because - as bad as both Oakland and Detroit may be defensively, they seem to even worse shooting the ball. Oakland, who is an ugly 0-9 SU, has shot just 35.4% from the floor so far and 29.0% from three-point range. Yet all but one of their games (the 2nd one) has gone Over the total! That streak should end Saturday afternoon. 

Detroit is no better when it comes to shooting the basketball. They are making only 38.5% of their FG attempts so far, including an unsightly 28.9% from 3-point range. The Titans just allowed an average of 89 PPG in a pair of home losses to Wright State. Both of those games went Over the total. Again though, their defense is going to get a major break here in facing one of the worst teams in the entire country. The most points Detroit has scored in a game this season is 76 and this is the highest O/U line for any game to date. 

Same for Oakland, whose previous high O/U line was 148.5 against Michigan State. They played Detroit twice last season and while both of those games went Over, the final point totals were 141 and 147, both of which would be UNDERS in this scenario. Oddsmakers have adjusted too much in the wake of all the poor defensive efforts these teams have delivered in the early part of the season. Again, neither is shooting the ball well and that means I am going Under on a very high total. 10* Under Oakland/Detroit

10* Ohio State (4:30 ET): We’ve got a Top 25 matchup Wednesday afternoon in Columbus with #23 Ohio State hosting #11 Rutgers. My view is that these teams are much closer than those rankings indicate with the Buckeyes probably being better. So I see Rutgers’ (6-0) unbeaten run coming to an end here. The Scarlet Knights have managed to win two straight as underdogs, but the third time WON’T be the charm here as three consecutive SU dog wins is a difficult thing to pull off. Lay the very short number. 

Ohio State won 77-70 against UCLA its last time out. It was technically a “neutral court game,” though being in Cleveland, it was obviously an edge to the Buckeyes. Still they came in as 2-pt underdogs, so it was a nice win. It was also much-needed after a loss at Purdue last week and a less than stellar showing here at home vs. a terrible Cleveland State side 10 days ago (OSU won by only six). That being said, the Buckeyes are a top 10 team in offensive efficiency right now and 20-8 ATS their L28 home games. They’ve outscored visiting teams by 19 PPG this season in Columbus. 

Everyone’s going to lose at least one game this season and this just seems like a very logical spot for Rutgers to fall for the first time in 2020. The win over Illinois on Sunday was impressive, but also came at home. The Scarlet Knights had to overcome a DD deficit in the 1st half and 54% Illini shooting to get the 91-88 victory. I don’t think they can count on scoring that much on the road. Being able to attempt 36 free throws was also huge against Illinois and that’s something that almost certainly will NOT repeat itself Weds afternoon. Ohio State doesn’t turn the ball over much and will pick up its first Big 10 win of the season here. 10* Ohio State

10* Under Purdue/Iowa (9:00 ET): Iowa is 7-0 Over this season and 3-0 Over its L3 games vs. Purdue. So this is most definitely a “contrarian” type play Tuesday as we look to buck those aforementioned trends. One more thing - Iowa comes in averaging an astonishing 98.7 PPG. They just suffered their 1st loss of the season, 99-88 to Gonzaga on Saturday. But in the face of all that info, I’m still going Under here in the Big 10 opener as there’s simply no way those types of numbers can be sustained. 

The 88 points scored in the Gonzaga loss were actually the FEWEST by Iowa in a game this season! But let’s keep in mind that they’ve been able to “run up the score” against some bad teams thus far. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are far from “elite,” but they are holding opponents to just 68.5 PPG on 38.9% shooting here in Iowa City. Again, they’ve hosted some weak teams, but they’re doing a solid job at defending the three-point line plus opponents are shooting just 40.8% overall for the season, even after Gonzaga went 36 of 70. 

To put Iowa’s 7-0 Over run to start the season in its proper perspective, note there are only two other teams in the country that are 5-0 Over or “better.” Purdue comes in off an 88-78 win over Notre Dame, so they’ve done some scoring too, but I just can’t see it continuing like this. The Boilermakers are 3-0 Under as road dogs of 6.5 to 9 points the previous two seasons. Iowa has some serious revenge to exact here as they’ve lost four straight times to Purdue. They’ll be looking to play some defense. 10* Under Purdue/Iowa

8* Under St. Josephs/Tennessee (6:00 ET): St. Joe’s has played a murderous schedule thus far and things get no easier here as they pay a visit to Knoxville to face #10 Tennessee. So far, the Hawks have faced Auburn, Kansas and Villanova. Throw in a 81-77 loss to Drexel and it’s an 0-4 SU start with every game going Over the total. They’ve given up 81 points or more in every game. Do note, however, that one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) did go to overtime.

Tennessee hasn’t given up more than 56 in any of its four games and thus it’s been a pretty easy 4-0 start for them. They’d actually gone Under in three straight to start the season before shooting a blistering 58.3% from the floor against Tennessee Tech over the weekend, including 47.4% from three-point range. Six players were in double figures as the team produced its 8th largest MOV (54 points) in program history. They scored 103 points, which is something you just don’t see much in College Hoops. Of course, you have to consider the opponent. 

With UT not having allowed more than 56 points in any game so far, I have to think this is where St. Joe’s Over streak comes to an end. Assuming we get the “usual brand” of Volunteer defense, that would require them also scoring 90+ (to send this one Over) and I just don’t see that happening. Playing a second game in four days, it’s going to be next to impossible to replicate the shooting we saw vs. Tenn Tech. None of the Vols’ first three games saw more than 121 total pts scored and this is easily the highest O/U line for any of their games to date. St. Joe’s hasn’t shot well this season and the Under is 7-1 when they face a SEC team. The Under is also on a 25-12 run here in Knoxville and the Vols are allowing just 32.9% shooting YTD. 8* Under St. Joseph’s/Tennessee

10* Minnesota (8:30 ET): There are only 11 teams in the country that have won at least six games without a loss. St. Louis is one of them and perhaps even more impressive is the fact the Billikens have covered the spread in all six games as well. They’ve got two wins against “Power 5” teams (LSU, NC State), but are about to hit the road for the first time tonight against Minnesota. I like the fact St. Louis is favored in this one as it’s a great time to fade a team I didn’t really expect to still be undefeated. Take the points. 

Minnesota also began its season 6-0 SU. But the Golden Gophers just tasted defeat for the 1st time on Tuesday, getting blown out 95-62 by #13 Illinois. I think we all know that the Illini are one of the top teams in the country, so I’m not at all discouraged by that loss from the Gophers. It was on the road (their first road game) and they shot very poorly (27.5 FG%). Back at home, I expect Minnesota to be back in the 80s-90s (in terms of points scored), like we saw in the majority of their first six games this season. 

I think it’s a little telling that St. Louis isn’t even ranked despite its perfect record. Considering they just played two games in three days, with NC State a last minute addition to the schedule, this seems like the point where the inevitability of losing a game catches up with them. They trailed NC State at the half. This will now be their third game in six days. 10* Minnesota

10* Texas Tech (7:00 ET): It’s expected to be a very competitive game in Lubbock tonight as #14 Texas Tech hosts #5 Kansas. While KU has played the more challenging schedule of the two, this will be the Jayhawks’ first “true” road game of the season. The season in Lawrence began with a loss to Gonzaga. No shame there, especially with the Jayhawks winning six in a row since that lone loss. Texas Tech is also 6-1 and their only loss was to a very good Houston team on a neutral floor.

Still doesn’t sound like much of an edge either way, right? Well, Kansas has had plenty of close calls during its six-game win streak, winning half those contests by four points or less. Wins over Kentucky, N Dakota St and Creighton have been by a total of eight points. The Jayhawks easily could have lost all three of those games as they trailed in the final minute against both N Dakota St and Creighton and then by nine at the half against a Kentucky team that has otherwise struggled in the early part of the season. 

The majority of Texas Tech’s wins so far have been blowouts as you’d expect given some of the opposition. Maybe that’s why my power rankings “like” the Red Raiders so much. I’ve got them as the higher rated team, safely in the Top 10 while Kansas is outside the Top 10. Kansas’ defense seems to have slipped this season, so I expect Texas Tech to turn around their recent shooting from 3-pt range. The Red Raiders are obviously again one of the nation’s best defensively as they already rank #1 in efficiency. 10* Texas Tech

10* Over Samford/Troy (7:00 ET): All of Troy’s games thus far have stayed Under the total. Note that the last game (Central Baptist) did not have a total posted, but considering the final score (61-44), it would have been an Under had a number been posted. But here, the Trojans are finally matched up against an opponent that has no problem putting the ball in the basket. Samford comes in averaging 86.0 PPG on the season and is 41-22 Over its L63 games overall. This one will be high-scoring. Take the Over.

These teams met last season and Samford won 72-60. That was NOT an Over, however Samford shot very well in the win, making over 50% of their shots from three and overall. It was a bad shooting night for Troy, who finished at 32.3% overall and 25.9% from three-point range. Poor shooting has also plagued the Trojans during this 3-3 start as they are at just 34.4% overall from the field and 23.1% from behind the arc. Those are simply hideous numbers and HAVE to improve moving forward. Good thing then that Samford is giving up an average of 78.2 PPG so far.

Samford’s last game, a 79-75 loss to Georgia, did NOT go Over the total. However, dating back to last season, their previous seven games all had. Bulldogs’ games are average 164.2 PPG this season, which is well above the total for tonight’s game. Samford has scored at least 75 in all four games and topped 95 twice. They are a top 25 team in adjusted tempo, which means plenty of possessions and more opportunities to score. Troy is 6-2 Over at home when the total is 145 to 149.5. 10* Over Samford/Troy

8* TCU (7:00 ET): Oklahoma State may have a nice, shiny 6-0 SU record, but they’ve covered the spread just twice and are unranked. That leads me to believe this isn’t a team you should place a ton of faith in moving forward. Tonight looks like a clear opportunity to fade as they open the Big 12 schedule against TCU. The Horned Frogs are now 5-2 SU on the year following an impressive 73-55 win against Texas A&M over the weekend. I would not be surprised if Jamie Dixon’s crew ended the Pokes’ unbeaten run here. Take the points. 

Oklahoma State’s last game was a close call at Wichita State where they won 67-64 as three-point road favorites. That was the Cowboys’ 4th win by eight points or less so far and second straight. They only managed to beat Oral Roberts by five last week here in Stillwater. I’m still not sure we know a ton about OK State right now, but we’re about to learn as they open the conference slate with this game, followed by trips to Texas and Texas Tech. What I can say with confidence is the Pokes won’t be unbeaten for much longer.

TCU hasn’t had much success in Stillwater of late, losing eight of the last nine visits. This is their first true road game of 2020-21. But what we can lean on here is the Horned Frogs’ defense as they’ve given up an average of just 57.3 points in three neutral site games. With this likely to be a low-scoring game and OK State just 1-4 ATS when laying more than five points at the betting window, taking the dog is the way to go here. TCU covered against Oklahoma earlier in the year. 8* TCU

10* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Western Carolina has pulled off an incredible string of close victories this season in getting to 6-1. On Saturday, they downed North Carolina A&T 104-98 in overtime. However, that was a game they really “should have” finished off in regulation as they led by 13 with just over seven minutes remaining. As I already alluded to, winning close has been the norm for this WCU team as they have four wins by seven points or less. On the flip side, their only loss (to Troy) was by two.

VCU has looked a little better than expected so far. Thanks to a couple of upsets over Utah State and Memphis in the first few games, the Rams are now 5-2 SU. They come into tonight riding a three-game winning streak, one of them by 36 over the same North Carolina A&T team that just took Western Carolina into OT. On Saturday, it was a 23-point victory over old CAA rival Old Dominion on Saturday. They’ve covered five in a row and are 6-1 ATS overall. The only non-cover was a 12-pt loss at a very good West Virginia team where they were 10.5-point underdogs. 

While VCU has been impressive in victory this year (all 5 wins by double digits), I don’t think they are going to be able to keep winning in such dominant fashion. With Western Carolina having played so many close games already, I expect another one tonight. The “Havoc” defense of VCU is going to be tested here by a Western Carolina team that shoots the ball very well (58.2% last game). The Catamounts have covered the last five times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* Western Carolina

8* Portland State (5:00 ET): Washington State may be undefeated (4-0), but they have been living quite dangerously with all four wins coming by four points or fewer. All four wins have been here at the Palouse and save for a minor upset of Oregon State, the competition hasn’t exactly been fierce. The Cougars other three wins were against Texas Southern, Eastern Washington and Idaho. They went 0-3 ATS in those games. So there is hope here for a Portland State squad that may not be great, but was favored in its first road game of the season. 

Sadly for the Vikings, they lost that road game. It was the season opener vs. Portland and they fell 86-73 as 2.5-point chalk. Their only game since then was an 88-48 blowout of Northwestern College on Tuesday. Consider that to be a confidence builder as they go in to face a P5 foe on the road. Portland State held their opponent to 29.1% shooting on Tuesday, an encouraging sign seeing as Wazzu is shooting a paltry 35.9% on the season.

While the Wazzu faithful are hoping that this can be the first dominant win of the season, I see a team ripe to be upset. Considering the Cougars’ four wins this year have been by a total of 14 points, the idea of them laying double digits to anybody seems questionable. They have had to rally from a double-digit deficit in each of the last three games! So they are a REALLY shaky 4-0.  Furthermore, it looks as if they could be short-handed on Sunday. 8* Portland State

8* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Grand Canyon University is off to a 3-0 start having waxed Mississippi Valley State by 39 points 10 days ago. That 88-49 win was the Antelopes’ third straight (victory) by double digits to open the 2020-21 season, though the level of competition hasn’t been particularly strong. Case in point; they were 32.5-pt favorites over MVSU. Still the fact that the Antelopes have been bet to the role of favorite tonight vs. Nevada should tell you “all you need to know” about the respect this team deserves.

Nevada is off to a 4-1 SU start, having just defeated William Jessup 86-64 on Monday. Obviously, that wasn’t much of a test. Before that easy win, the Wolf Pack suffered a horrible 25-point loss to San Francisco on December 2nd, a game where they were 2.5-point home favorites. That result carries more weight for me when handicapping tonight’s matchup. Before Monday’s game, Nevada had not shot the ball particularly well this season. 

Though it’s been against weak competition, Grand Canyon looks great so far and deserves to be favored in this matchup. The Antelopes have revenge from an 8-point loss two years ago. That game was played on a neutral floor and you can bet the upperclassmen remember it. Nevada has been held below 40% shooting in two of its games thus far. They had to replace all five starters from last year, a problem for sure, so there are going to be growing pains like we saw vs. San Francisco. With Bryce Drew on the bench, GCU is going to improve a lot on the defensive end this year and three of last year’s four leading scorers are back. 8* Grand Canyon

10* Oregon State (8:00 ET): Oregon State is off B2B outright losses at the hands of Wyoming and Washington State, but should get back on track tonight against a lowly in-state foe. Both OSU losses have been close. They lost by four at Wazzu, then by only three to Wyoming. That Wyoming loss really stung as the Beavers led by six with under two minutes to go. They led Washington State by double digits early in the second half of that game as well. Really, the Beavers easily could be coming into this game unbeaten at 4-0. 

Portland is 3-1 and on a three-game win streak, but two of those three wins came against non-board teams. They did just beat rival Portland State 86-73 as a 2.5-point home dog last Saturday. The fact the Pilots were home dogs to a team like Portland State should speak volumes. I’ve got Portland ranked outside my top 300. As a reminder, there are “only” 347 D-I College Hoops teams. The Pilots have never won more than 11 games in any of HC Terry Porter’s previous four seasons here and are a terrible 7-61 SU in conference play. 

Oregon State’s problems thus far have been turnovers and a bizarrely low FG% on 2-point attempts. We should see those issues rectified tonight in what shapes up to be a “get-well game” for them. Portland also has turnover issues and while they do a great job at getting to the free throw line, they are outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency, which is very bad. Oregon State should have a significant edge on the boards in this matchup and will be looking for a “pound of flesh” after blowing 2H leads in the L2 games. 10* Oregon State

10* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is going to look to exact some revenge here for what happened on the football field. In case you forgot, the Broncos’ football team suffered its only loss of the season at BYU earlier this year and it came in embarrassing fashion on the blue turf. The hoops team heads to Provo, looking to build off an 86-55 win over Sam Houston State that came all the way back on 11/29. The Broncos only other game this season was a 68-58 loss at Top 10 Houston.

BYU has been much busier than Boise State thus far as they come with a 5-1 SU record on the year. They’re off B2B wins (against St. John’s and Utah State), the latter coming on the road by three points. The Cougars weren’t tested during a 3-0 start and then suffered a blowout loss at the hands of USC, 79-53 as 3.5-point chalk. Tonight will be the most points they’ve had to lay since that game and my power ratings say the number is too high. I’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly and home court advantage just doesn’t mean much right now. 

Boise State has really struggled from three-point range thus far, making only 21.5% of their attempts. I expect that number to start going up immediately. The Broncos do an excellent job at crashing the glass and getting to the free throw line. They also are excellent at forcing turnovers (20th in NCAA) and defending the three-point line (22.9%). Those numbers are significant as BYU has a high turnover percentage (22.1% of its offensive possessions) and struggles at the FT line. This is a good matchup for the underdog. Take the points. 10* Boise State

8* SIU Edwardsville (7:00 ET): I don’t think Valpo should be laying double digits to anybody right now, even a “lesser” opponent like SIU Edwardsville. The Crusaders opened the season with three straight road defeats, one of them as a favorite to old Horizon League foe IL-Chicago. (The other two were at Purdue and Vanderbilt, so to be fair a strong start was unlikely). An 85-45 win over Judson College on Sunday was pretty meaningless considering that the opponent was a non-DI team. 

SIU Edwardsville started with an ugly loss at Saint Louis, but has since been a competitive squad. It’s other two losses were to LSU (easily covered that game as 30-pt underdogs) and Saturday at home vs. Omaha (by just two points). The Cougars pulled an upset in their last road game, beating Northern Illinois (by 20!) as a nine-point underdog! Having lost each of the L2 seasons to Valpo (by a total of just 18 points), the Cougars will be looking for revenge. 

Valpo has struggled from distance so far, shooting just 28% from three-point range. Even if that number is set to improve (it probably will), it’s going to be tough to cover a large spread such as this one. SIU Edwardsville has shot better than 50% in three of its five games and is much more proficient from behind the arc (including an impressive 41.8% in four games away from home). A poor 1H cost the Cougars the game against Omaha on Saturday. They’ll come out sharper here. 8* SIU Edwardsville

8* Illinois (9:30 ET): It was exactly one week ago that I took Michigan State plus the points here at Cameron Indoor and watched as the underdog pulled off the outright upset. Could Duke suffer another outright loss to a Big 10 opponent at home? Yes, I think so. I’ve got Illinois rated even higher than Michigan State, so this is a no brainer for me. I expect an outright win, but will take the points with the better team. Even after factoring in the minimal home court edge, I still think the Illini should be favored tonight. 

A young Duke team is off to an 0-3 ATS start. In addition to the outright loss to Michigan State last Tuesday, the Blue Devils did not cover against Coppin State in the opener or against Bellarmine on Friday. Now to be fair, they were favored by more than 30 in both games. But those spreads also reflect the fact Duke is overvalued right now. According to my own personal power ratings, they are not even a Top 25 team, let alone #10. Their current ranking is completely based on reputation. 

Coach K is also still trying to figure out his starting lineup. Eight different Blue Devils have found their way into the starting lineup in the first three games, which is a reflection of how young the squad is. Illinois is a veteran team looking to bounce back from a double digit loss to #2 Baylor. That was a close game for the first 30 minutes before Baylor pulled away. Note that while Duke lost by “only” 6 to Michigan State, they trailed by double digits much of the second half.  8* Illinois

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): I thought the oddsmakers made an error when they opened Detroit as the favorite for this game and it appears as if I wasn’t alone in that assessment given how the line has already moved. The Golden Flashes gave Virginia all they could handle over the weekend (in Charlottesville!), taking the Hoos into overtime and coming up only seven points short. They were 18.5-point underdogs, so they covered the spread easily. The only other game Kent State has played was a 90-41 win over Point Park.

Detroit is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS as they’ve covered the spread against Michigan State and Notre Dame. Both games have come in the last five days. The Titans were very fortunate to draw Michigan State just a few days after Sparty went to Cameron and upset Duke. The situation played out just as you might think as Detroit took advantage of MSU being in the letdown spot, staying even for most of the game before losing 83-76. On Sunday, the Titans lost by eight at Notre Dame, a game they were expected to lose by 12.

Though Detroit has played two P5 teams tough thus far, they are the ones in a bit of a letdown spot Tuesday night. The team is probably somewhat discouraged by the fact they didn’t win either game and isn’t likely to “get up” as much for an opponent like Kent State. So look for the Golden Flashes to take full advantage as they are better rested and confident after taking Virginia to OT. Had it not been for FTs, they would have won that game. Another reason they should be confident is that they beat Detroit by 35 points last season. 10* Kent State

8* UNC Wilmington (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is gunning for a third consecutive upset here as they travel to face 3-0 East Carolina. The Seahawks have previously beaten UNC Asheville and Troy, games where they were six and three-point dogs, respectively. All three of their games thus far were played in Asheville (which is a lovely place to visit) as part of a tournament to open the season. They are led by Jaylen Sims, who is coming off a career-high 29 pts vs. Troy and averaging 26.7 PPG (on 63% shooting) overall. 

East Carolina might be unbeaten, but that’s a byproduct of who they’ve played. A season-opening win over Charlotte was a decent resume builder, but since then it’s been victories over NC Wesleyan (non-DI opponent) and Radford. The Pirates’ defense has been pretty good so far as they are allowing just 56.3 PPG, but I don’t expect that to continue. UNC Wilmington has scored 73 or more points in all three games and shoots very well (40%) from three-point range. The Seahawks have two other double-digit scorers besides Sims. 

While UNCW did allow 98 points to Western Carolina in the season opener, they’ve been much better defensively in the last two games, particularly vs. Troy. They held the Trojans below 30% shooting for the game and allowed only 50 points. While not expected to make a ton of noise in the Colonial this season, the Seahawks deserve more respect than they’re getting here against a team that’s overrated simply because they have a “0” in the loss column. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* California (8:00 ET): The university from Berkeley treated me so well yesterday on the football field (outright win over Oregon as my 10* NCAAF Game of the Week) that I thought I’d try the basketball team on Sunday. In all seriousness, me taking both programs on the same weekend is mere coincidence as this play is all about my skepticism over UCLA being ranked in the Top 25. I don’t see it. 

The Bruins’ season started with them losing outright (as a 3-pt favorite) to San Diego State. While it was a road game, they lost by 15 points and only managed to score 58 points on 39.5% shooting. From there, they did score 107 points the next game, but that was because of TRIPLE overtime. The Bruins were extremely fortunate to get the ATS win against Pepperdine (won 107-98) as they were NOT covering the 7-point spread for roughly 99% of the game. After a game with Long Beach State was postponed, UCLA finally got to play its home opener Thursday and it was their most complete effort to date. But that 78-52 win came against lowly Seattle, who was a 20-point underdog. 

Cal is 2-2 SU, but 0-2 in Pac 12 play. They’ve suffered losses to Oregon State and Arizona State, both coming by exactly eight points. The Bears didn’t shoot well in either game (just under 40% overall) and really struggled from 3-point range. But I didn’t exactly see great defense from UCLA in their first two games. Thus the Bears should see improved shooting tonight. The eight-point final margin against Arizona State was actually somewhat misleading as it was the largest they faced the entire game. It was a close game throughout. The same should end up being true here. Take the points. 10* California

8* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is off to a 1-3 start (straight up), but that record doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Mavericks have been in those four games. Rather you should look to the fact they are a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 5 at Louisiana Tech and by 12 at Arkansas. The Tulsa team that they are facing Friday is 0-2 SU and ATS and hasn’t done much in the way of scoring. When these teams met in Arlington last season, the Mavericks were 14 pt winners, holding Tulsa to just 59 points. This is a matchup where taking the points makes a lot of sense. 

Covering as underdogs is nothing new for UT Arlington. After all, they are a remarkable 70-38 ATS the L108 times taking points including 3-0 already this season. The fact they’ve been able to cover all of these games has been a testament to their defense as the Mavericks are shooting below 40% from the field thus far. They were able to hold Arkansas to just SIX points over the final 10 minutes on Wednesday, but it still wasn’t enough. You have to figure they’re going to start shooting better moving forward and I say that happens here.

Tulsa’s season has started with losses to TCU and South Carolina, both of which were part of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. Despite only losing by 5 to TCU, the Golden Hurricane never led in the second half. They jumped out to an early 9-0 against sloppy South Carolina, but after that were pretty much dominated and ended up losing by 11. This is the first time Tulsa has been favored and UT Arlington is on a 14-5 ATS run vs. teams with losing records. Tulsa’s three-point shooting has been dreadful and I smell upset here. Take the points. 8* UT ARLINGTON

8* Niagara (8:00 ET): These two upstate New York teams have combined to play just ONE game thus far and it was Syracuse delivering a thoroughly unimpressive 85-84 win over Bryant. While you’ll always take a win, given the fact the Orange were favored in that game by 22 points, winning 85-84 is not what they had in mind. The fact they made only 40% of their field goal attempts against such a lesser foe is NOT a good sign moving forward and the Orange could be looking ahead to next week’s game vs. Rutgers, who is a Top 25 team. Take the points in this matchup. 

It would not be a shock to see Niagara keep this game close. After all, last year they lost by only 14 (71-57) here at the Carrier Dome and that was despite shooting just 32.4% from the field, including 6 of 27 from three-point range. You’d expect them to shoot better this time around. The 2019-20 season was not a good one for the Purple Eagles offensively, but they should be better at that end of the floor this season. They return LY’s leading scorer Marcus Hammond, who is one of the top players in the MAAC. 

The fact that Jim Boeheim’s son (Buddy) is the best player on the team is an insight into the relatively sad state of Syracuse basketball right now. No longer is this program a power on the national level. They are probably looking at a middle of the pack finish in the ACC. While they are likely to win tonight, their struggles in the season opener reiterate this is not a team you want to lay a ton of points with. Failing to cover against Bryant drops the Orange to 1-5 ATS the L6 times they’ve been a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. 8* Niagara

10* USC (7:00 ET): Two unbeaten teams here meeting in the Mohegan Sun Arena for what is a de facto home game for UConn. It seems as if it’s been FOREVER since the Huskies were relevant on the national scene, but they are 2-0 right now and averaging 85.0 points/game. Still, neither win could be considered all that impressive as one was against Central Connecticut State and the other a non-cover vs. Hartford. Tonight is the Huskies’ stiffest test to date as they face a 3-0 USC team. 

Southern Cal has shot 50% or better in all three of its games thus far and played exceptional defense in the last two. After holding Montana to just 33.3% shooting last Saturday, the Trojans were even stingier vs. BYU, limiting the Cougars to a 27.5 FG% in what was termed an “upset” two nights ago. But you wouldn’t have known USC was a 3.5-point dog by the way they played Tuesday. They won by 26 (79-53) on this same floor. Both Mobley brothers finished with double-doubles and Drew Peterson led the scoring with 19 points. 

I’ve got USC rated as the better team here. If this were just a “one-off” at the Mohegan Sun, I’d be less inclined to back them, but that’s not the case. After watching the Trojans destroy BYU here two days ago, I’m comfortable in pretty much disregarding any advantage UConn might otherwise have by playing this game within the state border. It’s not as if fans are a factor in 2020. I’ve been very impressed with the USC defense the L2 games while UConn’s scoring average is inflated by one big game against a terrible opponent. UConn had its game (vs. Vanderbilt) scheduled for Tuesday cancelled and will struggle with USC’s size. The Trojans have won six straight going back to the end of last season. 10* USC

8* Oregon State (10:00 ET): The Pac 12 has wasted little time getting conference play underway and here we have Oregon State travelling to Pullman to face Washington State. Both teams are 2-0, however Wazzu is 0-2 ATS as both wins were close. OSU is coming off a 114-point effort last Friday, albeit against a non-DI opponent (Northwest Col). But the Beavers also have already picked up a win over a conference opponent, beating Cal 71-63 in the season opener. 

Oregon State is hoping to avoid a repeat of what happened LY here in Pullan when they arrived as 3.5-point favorites and lost outright, 89-76. That was a bad shooting night for the Beavers, at least from three-point range where they finished just 2 of 13. That shouldn’t happen again here as the Beavers are deep and one of the most experienced teams in the entire country. Six players are averaging in double figures thus far, led by senior Ethan Thompson, who has started every game in his career. 

Washington State had to rally past both Texas Southern and Eastern Washington to win by four and three points, respectively. The Cougars shot poorly in the first game, then actually trailed 16-3 early against an Eastern Washington side that was down to just seven scholarship players (COVID). Looking at the injury report here, I see a lot of question marks for Wazzu and that’s not good for a team that simply isn’t very deep. They have the worst record in the Pac 12 over the past two seasons as well. 8* Oregon State

10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): The better team is getting points here, at least in my opinion. Even if you may not agree with that assessment, there certainly is no denying that the underdog is the more “battle-tested” of the two teams. South Dakota State has already played #11 West Virginia, Utah State & St. Mary’s. The Jackrabbits have emerged from that stretch with a 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, Iowa State has played only one game (Ark-Pine Bluff) and is without starter Tre Jackson. 

All three of South Dakota State’s games were a part of the Bad Boy Mowers Classic, which was held in nearby Sioux Falls. They were actually favored to beat St. Mary’s (-3), which shows this team is already respected in the marketplace. That line was probably also based on the fact the Jackrabbits had just clobbered Utah State by 24 points the day prior. Playing their third game in three days, SDSU had an “off-shooting” night vs. SMU (36.2 FG%), which included 2 of 12 from 3-pt range. They even missed 12 of 27 FT attempts. Keep in mind that the Summit League contingent was able to outrebound West Virginia in the season opener! 

Iowa State will miss Jackson as he was one of the team’s best three-point shooters. Though they ended up winning comfortably (80-63), the Cyclones actually trailed Arkansas Pine Bluff at halftime here in Ames in the season opener. South Dakota State returns the fourth most minutes in the entire country from last season, so this is a veteran team that won’t be intimidated by playing in a Big 12 building. (Home court advantage obviously doesn’t mean much right now anyway). They’ve been off since Friday, giving them plenty of time to recoup after the Bad Boy Mowers Classic. 10* South Dakota State

10* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Michigan State has had a curious lack of success against Duke through the years. Their only win in the L10 tries against the Blue Devils came in the Elite Eight of the last NCAA Tournament played (2019), a 68-67 “upset” as 2.5-pt underdogs. Sparty is 0-3 SU all-time vs. Duke when matched up in the Champions Classic, plus they lost outright to them LY in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge 87-75 as 6.5-pt chalk. Things are different this year, however. I’ve got MSU rated as the better team, so this is looking like a good value. Take the points.

Michigan State is already 2-0 with wins over Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame. They defeated Eastern Michigan 83-67 as 22.5-pt favorites and then Notre Dame 80-70 as a 9.5-pt favorite. The Spartans shot better against Eastern Michigan, which is to be expected, but also played better defense vs Notre Dame. Joshua Langford is back after missing all of last season and the final 18 games of the year prior, which is a big boost. Also, don’t let that final score vs. ND fool you. Sparty led by as many as 28 in the 2H. 

After having its first game (vs. Gardner-Webb) cancelled, Duke finally opened its season on Saturday with an 81-71 win over Coppin State. They too opened a sizable lead (17 pts), but were unable to hold on to it. Still, the Blue Devils never even came close to covering the 39-point spread in that one. That was due to a combination of letting Coppin State make 10 three-pointers plus 22 turnovers. Duke is a young team and home court advantage doesn’t matter much in this scenario. MSU is 16-6 ATS after scoring 80+ points and I like them as a dog early in the season. 10* Michigan State

8* Texas (12:30 ET): Both of these teams started the season with a win. However, Texas was clearly more impressive than Davidson. The Longhorns clobbered a clearly overmatched Texas Rio Grande Valley 91-57, easily covering the 21-point spread. Davidson won comfortably against High Point, 82-73, but didn’t come close to covering the 19-point spread. For both teams, it boiled down to defense. Texas held UTRGV to 26.1% shooting. Davidson let High Point shoot a far more respectable 46.6% overall. 

That impressive showing by the Longhorns in the season opener was a continuation of what we saw from this team last year in non-conference play. They gave up only 61.5 PPG in non-conference play in 2019-20, going 10-3 SU in those games. Meanwhile, Davidson was just 6-6 SU in non-conference play a year ago. This is a big step up in class for the Wildcats facing the #22 ranked team in the country. I’ve got Texas very high in my own power ratings and expect this to be a blowout win Monday. 

This game is part of the “Maui Invitational,” which is actually being held in Asheville, NC. Despite the in-state advantage for Davidson, I still feel this should be a double-digit spread. Texas shot 57% from the floor in the opener. While it probably won’t be that easy on Monday, Davidson did just allow High Point to make 11 three-pointers and shoot 40% from behind the arc. The Longhorns did struggle on the offensive end last year, so their shooting in the opening game was certainly a welcome sight. I think it carries over here. Lay the points. 8* Texas

10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): Little Rock and UNC Greensboro were both good teams last year. Little Rock went 21-10 SU and were regular season champs in the Sun Belt. (Conference Tournament was never played). UNC Greensboro won 23 games in 2019-20, finishing third in the always tough SoCon. The Spartans would not have made the NCAA Tournament though as they were upset in the 1st round of the conference tournament by Chattanooga. 

Arkansas Little Rock has already played a game this season while UNC Greensboro has not. Little Rock’s first game here in Louisville was far too close for comfort if you’re a Trojans fan as they could only beat a bad Prairie View A&M team 71-66 despite being 14-point favorites. Had they not enjoyed a massive edge at the free throw line (+25 in attempts, +19 in makes), they very well could have lost the game outright. The Trojans trailed at the half and let Prairie View A&M shoot nearly 50% for the game. That’s not a good sign when getting set to face a much superior team tonight. 

UNC Greensboro actually failed to cover the spread in its final five games last year. That has the Spartans undervalued coming into this 2020-21 season. This was a good defensive team last season as it held opposing teams to just 63.1 PPG. They return 11 players and have won 103 games the last four years (20+ wins every season). "I think this may be the deepest team I've ever coached," said HC Wes Miller. This looks like one of the better mid-majors in the country, so lay the short number. 10* UNC Greensboro

10* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU in all-time meetings with Tennessee Tech, though the last one took place back in 2017. It was an 87-59 win here in Bloomington. Tennessee Tech did not have a good season last year as they finished with a 9-22 SU record. What’s interesting is that four of those wins came in their final seven games. They closed on a 6-1 ATS stretch and were 4-0 ATS L4. Despite that, they failed to even qualify for the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. 

I wouldn’t put much stock in that finish to last season for Tennessee Tech. At one point, their record was just 5-19 SU. Will the Golden Eagles be more competitive this season? Ultimately, yes. But not here against a “blue blood” program. Indiana was 20-12 SU last season and while they do lose some depth, LY’s leading scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis does return. The Hoosiers should definitely be back in the NCAA Tournament in March. They received votes in the initial Top 25 and certainly deserved consideration to be in that first poll. 

The last few seasons have seen IU be a really strong home team. They’ve won 30 of the last 40 games here at Assembly Hall and are 15-0 SU when favored by 12.5 or more. Of course, winning straight up is not the concern here for the Hoosiers. Given that they averaged 77.2 PPG at home last season and Tennessee Tech averaged only 58.4 while going 3-14 SU away from home, I can say with full confidence that you should lay the points in this one. The Hoosiers won their first eight non-conf games last year, all by double digits. 10* Indiana

8* Oakland (12:00 ET): This is a lot of points than Xavier is laying here. Leading scorers from last year, Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall, are both gone. Hampton transfer Ben Stanley’s eligibility waiver was denied, so he won’t be making the expected impact. While there is some returning talent and promising newcomers, I just think that it’s too many points for a Musketeers team predicted to finish in the middle of the Big East to lay in the first game. They are just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more.

After a hot 9-1 start to last season, Xavier really sputtered down the stretch. Their season officially ended with a 1st round loss to DePaul in the Big East Tournament. But it was dropping six of their first eight conference games when things really began to take a turn for the worse. The Musketeers did finish with a 19-13 SU record, but they were only 11-20 ATS and the season ended on a three-game losing streak. 

Oakland has a LOT of new faces to open the 2020-21 season. They have eight freshmen on the roster and five players left via the transfer portal. But while it looks like a rebuilding year for HC Greg Kampe, I’m banking on him getting the most out of his team on Wednesday. This will be his 22nd year on the bench. Though off B2B losing seasons, the Golden Grizzlies did close LY by winning six of seven before falling to Green Bay in the Horizon League Tournament. Their three-point shooting should be a lot better in 2020-21. Take the points. 8* Oakland

10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas (9:25 ET): Both teams have been going Over a lot recently (three straight for Vandy and five straight for Arkansas). But when facing each other, Under has been the way to go in the past. The last four head to head meetings have all stayed Under including a 75-55 Hogs’ win in Fayatteville two months ago. Look for this 1st round SEC Tournament matchup to do the same. 

Arkansas has basically been going Over in almost every game this year. Not only do they come into the SEC Tourney on five-game Over streak, the Razorbacks are 15-2 Over in conference play this season! The Vandy game was one of the two that stayed Under obviously, a 73-59 loss at Florida on 2/18 was the other. Of course, this is a team that played FOUR overtime games in the regular season (helps w/ Overs) as well. The L5 games have been far higher scoring than normal for the Hogs, averaging 164.8 PPG, which is way up from where they are at for the season (145 PPG). The recent numbers aren’t likely to hold. 

While not on campus, the SEC Tournament does take place in Nashville, giving Vanderbilt a slight boost. The Commodores finished last in the regular season though w/ only three conference wins. Two of those three came in the last eight days in upsets over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commies averaged 85 PPG in that pair of victories, which is highly unlike them as they average only 71.7 PPG for the season. They too are “due” for a downturn in scoring. They’ve shot less than 40% in conference play this season! 10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas

8* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Look, there’s no sugarcoating how badly Nebraska has been beaten up by the rest of the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers not only enter the Tournament as the lowest seed, but also short-handed due to the suspensions of Burke and Mack. With their last win coming all the way back on January 7th, they clearly are not long for this event. It’s a 16-game losing streak they're on right now.

But Indiana happens to be the classic “overvalued” bubble team tonight. If you believe in Joe Lunardi, the Hoosiers are currently one of the “last four in” the field of 68. They would be the 10th team representing the Big 10 in the NCAA Tournament. Because of the “must-win” nature that they face right now, bettors have jumped on IU here and driven the line up to a far higher place than it should be. I don’t see the line getting any bigger, so jump in and play now. 

Indiana has beaten Nebraska twice this year, but both wins were by single digits. The Hoosiers have a problem outside of Bloomington in that they only average 60.8 PPG. Incredibly, they did not win a single “true” road game during the regular season (0-12). Ask yourself - do you really want to lay double digits with a team like that? The Hoosiers have dropped three of their last four games and were held under 60 pts in two of the losses. 8* Nebraska

10* Arizona (5:30 ET): Is it really true that Washington was once ranked in the Top 25 this season? I swear that it is! The Huskies even opened their season by beating Baylor. They got as high as #21 in the polls before the “bottom dropped out” and that “bottom” just so happened to be “conference play.” Going into last week, UW was just 3-13 SU vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and two of those victories came back in January. Two wins last week are not enough to convince me that this team is ready to make a move in the conference tournament. 

Arizona can be prone to some truly awful shooting nights. But I believe this team is MUCH better than its 5th place regular season finish in the Pac 12 would seem to indicate. There’s a case to be made that on any given night the Wildcats are as good as any team in the league. Even though they underachieved and (like Washington) are no longer ranked, I still consider Arizona as a Top 20 team and a real “darkhorse” in the NCAA Tournament. 

This is a revenge spot for the Wildcats, who dropped the regular season finale (at home) to Washington by a score of 68-62. They went into that game as 10-pt chalk. It was one of their “bad shooting nights” as they finished just 35.1% from the field despite shooting a reasonable percentage from 3-point range. Still a top 15 team in defensive efficiency, I’ll call for the Wildcats to shoot the ball MUCH better from inside the arc here. I can’t see Washington pulling a third straight upset after going 1-10 SU its previous 11 games. 10* Arizona

10* Iona (7:00 ET): I thought Iona underachieved this season, but now they have a chance to atone for that in what looks to be a wide-open MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City. The Gaels’ regular season ended with three consecutive losses, but all were either by three points or less or in overtime. That’s almost par for the course for a team that was favored in the majority of its games this season only to end up with a losing SU record (11-16). But the irony of the three-game losing streak is it placed them in the bottom half of the tourney bracket (seeded 7th) and away from top seed Siena. In the first round, they face a Canisius team they swept in the regular season!

Canisius finished second to last in the MAAC with a 7-13 SU conference record. They are just 12-19 SU overall. While the Golden Griffins were generally pretty good as underdogs (14-5 ATS), they failed to cover at Iona (+2.5) and were then blown out in the rematch 86-65 as a 1.5-pt home favorite. They are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. Iona the L2 seasons. So while Iona obviously would have loved to avoid playing in the first round of this tournament, Canisius is definitely not a bad matchup.

Canisius did end the regular season w/ B2B wins, but they came against arguably the two weakest teams in the MAAC (Niagara, Marist) and one of those wins was by a single point. The Golden Griffins hadn’t won B2B games since mid-January prior to the current streak. They came into March having lost 11 of 13 games and BOTH wins were by 1 point! I have no unearthly idea how they were able to beat Niagara in the regular season finale as they shot below 40% overall (including 5 of 21 on 3-pt attempts) and made only 8 FT’s. Iona’s luck changes here!  10* Iona

8* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Northern Kentucky came into yesterday knowing that whomever the opponent was, the Horizon League Championship Game would be an opportunity for revenge. The Norse have lost only two games since the start of February. One was a two-point loss to regular season champ Wright State. The other was a shocking 30-point loss to UIC. Surprisingly, they find themselves with the opportunity to avenge the more shocking defeat as UIC upset top seed Wright State in yesterday’s semifinal round. 

Of course, NKU also had to handle its own business in the semifinals yesterday. They did just that, beating Green Bay 80-69 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Norse weren’t necessarily dominant, but they got the job done. They went ahead for good with 9:52 left in the game and now look to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last four years. They’d been regular season champs each of the past two seasons, so make no mistake about it - this has been the dominant program in the Horizon League.

When the Norse lost 73-43 (at home!) to UIC back on Feb 16th, they had to endure one of the most wretched shooting nights of the entire College Basketball season. They connected on only 22% of their total field goal attempts and were 4 of 32 from three-point range. Meanwhile, UIC shot 50% overall and was 11 of 20 from behind the arc. Needless to say, that kind of shooting discrepancy isn’t happening again here. Northern Kentucky beat UIC by 16 in the season’s first meeting and should roll in similar fashion tonight. 8* Northern Kentucky

8* Northeastern (8:30 ET): The second of the two Colonial semifinals is NOT the matchup anyone expected as the 6-seed Northeastern faces the 7-seed Elon. Elon ensured that William & Mary would not make their first ever NCAA Tourney, beating the 2-seed 68-63 as a 7-pt dog yday. In the nightcap, Northeastern upended 3-seed Towson, but what was most interesting about that quarter final battle is that the lower seeded team (N’eastern) was the betting favorite (-3.5). They won 72-62. 

Elon is actually playing its third game in as many days here, which puts them at a pretty distinct disadvantage. Before last night’s upset over William & Mary, the Phoenix had to come from behind to defeat James Madison 63-61 in the 1st round of the tourney on Saturday. JMU finished in last place in the CAA this year, so that less than impressive win made Elon’s upset yday all the more surprising. Prior to Sunday, no team seeded 5th or lower had pulled an upset in the CAA Tournament since 2011. The fact we had two teams do it is noteworthy!

Again though, Northeastern’s win on Sunday should NOT be considered an upset as they went off as the betting favorite. Now it was an upset when Elon beat N’eastern on Feb 1st 74-69. They were 7-point dogs, but playing at home and they shot a ridiculous 61.4% from the floor. This is a neutral setting (Washington D.C.) and before yday, Elon had failed to cash in seven straight neutral court games. Northeastern did win the season’s first meeting 77-68 and should win by a larger margin tonight. 8* Northeastern

10* Ga Southern (7:00 ET): The Sun Belt Tournament gives a tremendous amount of preferential treatment to the teams that finished at the top of the regular season standings (as more “mid-major” tourneys should). The top two teams get triple byes into the semifinals, which take place in New Orleans, and prior to that all games are at campus sites and hosted by the higher seed. Here we’ve got the #5 seed Georgia Southern hosting the #8 seed Louisiana (who had to beat Arkansas State Saturday just to get here).

Louisiana benefited from the home court advantage rule against ASU on Saturday, winning 73-66 as a 3.5-pt favorite. While five Ragin Cajuns finished in double figures, they only led by one in the final minute. Neither team shot well, though Louisiana did a much better job at converting its free throw opportunities. Important to keep in mind that the Cajuns are a below .500 team (14-18 SU) that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are only 3-11 SU on the road while being outscored by 11.7 PPG. Take away the games where they were a home favorite and Louisiana’s record falls to 8-18 SU and 9-14-1 ATS. 

Ga Southern comes into the Sun Belt Tourney off a 1-pt loss, which should have them plenty motivated here. The loss was at home last Tuesday, to Arkansas State, and saw them blow a 10-point lead in the final minutes. The good news is that the Eagles are 9-3 off a loss this year and 9-5-1 ATS when playing on 3+ days rest. They were 12-pt favorites when they hosted Louisiana earlier this year (won by 20), so this is a great value we’re getting. They also beat the Ragin Cajuns by 7 in Lafayette. 10* Ga Southern

10* Over Iowa/Illinois (7:00 ET): While these two teams are both considered safe for making the NCAA Tournament, they’re each off a loss. Obviously, you don’t want to head into your conference tournament on a losing streak. But that will be the reality for either the Hawkeyes (who lost 77-68 at home to Purdue on Tuesday) or the Fighting Illini (who lost 71-63 at Ohio State on Thursday). What I see taking place tonight in Champaign-Urbana is a high-scoring game. Take the Over. 

I have to admit that I do have some reservations about Iowa entering the NCAA Tournament. While one of the premier teams in the country at the offensive end of the floor (7th in efficiency), they are just 88th in defensive efficiency and that’s traditionally not a good sign this time of year. Of course, those kinds of numbers also seem conducive to producing lots of Overs. Despite poor shooting from both sides (around 37%), the game vs. Illinois still went Over. I look for the Hawkeyes to shoot a lot better in this game.

The winner of this game will finish 4th in the Big 10 standings and thus get the final double-bye for the tournament. So plenty is at stake in this one. Illinois held Ohio State to 37.5% shooting on Thursday but still couldn’t get the job done in Columbus. Iowa is a tougher team to defend as they shot 50% in the first meeting and made 10 three-pointers en route to a 72-65 victory. The Over is 5-2 for Illinois following an ATS loss. 10* Over Iowa/Illinois

10* UC Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): The second place team in the Big West concludes its regular season Saturday night and couldn’t have asked for a better opponent as it’s the last place team in the conference Cal Poly. When these teams met earlier in the year, UCSB won by 18 on the road as they held the Mustangs to 28.3% shooting. Compounding problems for the underdog tonight is they’ve lost six in a row and given up at least 77 points in five of those games. This should be a very easy win for UCSB. 

This game has some major seeding implications for UCSB. The Gauchos could clinch the #2 seed in the Big West Tournament with a win, but could fall precipitously down the standings with a loss. The team they are tied for second with is Cal Northridge and they swept the regular season series from the Gauchos. But again, UCSB couldn’t have asked for a better opponent in this spot. 

It’s tough to ignore the kind of defense UCSB is playing right now. They just held Cal State Fullerton to 53 points Thursday as they held on for a two-point win. The Gauchos are allowing just 64.1 PPG this year at home where they’ve gone 12-3 SU. Incredibly, Cal Poly is 0-16 SU away from home this year and lost those games by an average of 13.2 PPG. They lost Thursday 80-73 at Long Beach State and are just 5-22 ATS the L3 seasons following a game in which they allowed 80+ points. 10* UC Santa Barbara

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Throughout this season, I have NOT been as high on Auburn as the pollsters. The Tigers clearly benefited from being one of the last unbeatens in the country, just like the Duquesne team I successfully faded last night, but in similar fashion (to Duquesne) there has been “sputtering” down the stretch as four of the Tigers’ six losses this season have come over the L6 games. They just got beat at home Wednesday 78-75 (as a 12-pt favorite) by Texas A&M. 

Tennessee will be honoring its senior class today, fresh off an upset at Kentucky earlier in the week. The Volunteers won 81-73 in Lexington as an 8.5-point dog, which followed a big win last weekend (here in Knoxville) against Florida. Speaking of seniors, UT’s John Fulkerson has led the way the L2 games w/ 49 points. Some other good news for the Vols is that they are 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game. 

I think it “speaks volumes” that Tennessee is favored here, even at home. The KenPom ratings list Auburn as the 39th best team in the country and my own personal power ratings are pretty much in line with that (#33). Tennessee is holding visitors to just 58.1 PPG here in Knoxville and in addition to having a chance to defeat their former HC (Bruce Pearl), the Volunteers have a shot at avenging a 73-66 loss from earlier in the year where they blew a 17-point lead. 8* Tennessee

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Other than #3 Dayton (who has completely dominated this conference), no other team from the Atlantic 10 is considered a safe bet to make the NCAA Tournament. Two teams vying for second best in the conference meet Friday and the winner could have a case for the Big Dance. Richmond is the hotter of the two, having won 8 of its last 9 games. The lone loss during that stretch was by 4 pts at St. Bonaventure. Tonight the Spiders travel to face a Duquesne team whose number they’ve really had through the years. 

Duquesne was actually one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country. They started out 10-0 SU but are just 11-8 since. I personally never took them very seriously, although they have played Dayton tough on two different occasions. The Dukes also just beat VCU three days ago, 80-77, but needed OT to do so in what was their third straight win by 4 points or less. Two of those have been overtime games. The Dukes have been among the most fortunate teams in the entire country this season w/ NINE wins coming by six points or less.

As alluded to above, Richmond has owned this particular A-10 rivalry. They are 22-2 SU the L24 times facing Duquesne while also going 18-6 ATS. The teams have not previously met this season. But Richmond has clearly been the more impressive team in conf play, going 13-4 SU w/ a +9.3 PPG scoring differential while Duquesne is 11-6 and only +1.5 PPG. The Spiders beat Davidson 80-63 earlier in the week and are 7-1 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80+ pts.  10* Richmond

8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Since picking up a huge overtime win at Arizona two Saturdays ago, the Ducks have played a “light schedule.” They’ve played only one time and it was a 69-54 win at Oregon State last Thursday. They’ll conclude the regular season w/ a pair of home games they definitely “should” win - this one and vs. Stanford on Saturday. Plenty is still on the line, not just for seeding purposes in the NCAA Tournament, but the Ducks are also competing for a Pac 12 regular season championship. They currently trail UCLA by one game in the win column. 

California has little to play for this week, though they’ve shown some grit recently by pulling three outright upsets in their last four games. Two were last week as they beat Colorado 76-62 (as an 8.5-pt dog) and Utah 86-79 (as a 1.5-pt dog). But both wins came in Berkeley. While they did win at Washington State the previous week, that’s the Bears’ ONLY “true” road win of the entire season (1-8 SU) and Wazzu is hardly on par with Oregon.

Two days after they went to Wazzu and won, Cal lost by 35 at Washington. Lack of offense has been a real issue for the Bears when they leave campus as they are averaging a paltry 54.8 PPG away from home. That’s a real problem for tonight as not only has Oregon won 20 straight games in Eugene, but they are averaging more than 80 PPG here this season. This one turns into a rout in a hurry. 8* Oregon

8* Under Boise St/UNLV (5:00 ET): This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Mountain West Tournament. Neither team had to win to get here and the winner will (likely) face top seed San Diego State in the semifinal tournament tomorrow. UNLV is the host team of this event (as per usual) and comes in hot. The Rebels have won and covered five straight games, including handing San Diego State its only loss of the regular season. But that’s not the only streak on the line today. Boise State has gone Under in eight consecutive contests.

These teams split the two regular season matchups, each winning at home. UNLV obviously has the edge here by being tournament hosts, but this is hardly a good shooting team. During their 5-0 SU/ATS run, they have made nearly 50% of their FG attempts. But that number figures to come down here. The Rebels are not a good outside shooting team (just 30.9% at home) and the two regular season games vs. Boise State saw them make only 12 of 49 attempts from behind the arc.

Boise State averages 81.1 PPG at home, but only 71.8 on the road. Good for them then that they do a great job defensively at guarding the three-point line, holding opponents below 30% there for the season. Another thing to consider here is that UNLV plays at a very slow pace. They are just 249th (per KenPom) in adjusted tempo this season. Prior to scoring 92 pts against a terrible San Jose State team in the final regular season game, the Rebels had gone Under four straight times themselves. 8* Under Boise St/UNLV

10* Providence (6:30 ET): Providence has made an impressive run the last two weeks by going 4-0 SU and ATS. Three of those victories have been upsets as they’ve beaten Seton Hall, Georgetown (on the road) and Villanova (also on the road). This run has the Friars somewhat “solidly” in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) later this month as the current projections have them around a 9-seed. But they can’t afford any kind of letdown here in the final week of the regular season. A strong finish would cement their status. 

As a whole, the Big East is projected to do well on Selection Sunday. There could be as many as seven teams from the conference making the Big Dance. Besides Providence, Xavier is another team fighting to make the cut line. The Musketeers only played once last week and they earned a 3-pt win @ Georgetown. While they failed to cover (were -3.5!), they are still 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 games. Note, however, they needed a 3-pointer w/ 4.5 seconds remaining to beat G’town. Xavier easily could have lost that game. 

This is a rematch from a game played almost a month ago where Xavier won 64-58 as a 4-point choice. In that game, neither side shot well from 3-pt range. Providence had the lead at halftime, but could not hold. At home, the Friars seem to have the advantage though as they outscore opponents by 13.6 PPG here as opposed to a -3.0 PPG differential on the road. That’s a pretty dramatic swing there. The Friars area also 4-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss this season. 10* Providence

10* Baylor (9:00 ET): The last time #2 Baylor was off a SU loss, we grabbed them and cashed a winning ticket. It was last Tuesday when they crushed Kansas State 85-66 as a DD home favorite. The Bears will almost certainly have dropped in the rankings by the time tonight’s game tips off as they fell Saturday in Ft. Worth, 75-72 to TCU (were -9.5) in what was certainly their “worst” loss of the season to date. But just like last Tuesday, I expect them to bounce back in a major way here.

Baylor’s only two other losses this year were to Kansas (current #1 team in the country) and out in Washington in the second game of the season. All of a sudden, after a record 23-game win streak, the Bears have now dropped 2 of 3. But as they showed against Kansas State, this team certainly remains formidable at home. They are 13-1 SU in Waco, winning by an average margin of 14.3 PPG. Getting them as a single digit favorite is a real bargain tonight.

Now Texas Tech presents a far greater challenge than Kansas State did, but the Red Raiders also aren’t Kansas (the only visitor to win in Waco this season). The Red Raiders are off a bad week where they lost to both Texas and Oklahoma (favored in both games) and that will certainly drop them out of the Top 25 when the new rankings are released later today. Back in January, Baylor went to Lubbock and won 57-52 as a 3.5-pt underdog. Following two more sub-60 pt efforts LW, I can’t see TT scoring many points tonight and that’s obviously problematic. 10* Baylor

10* Louisville (6:00 ET): #11 Louisville has a chance to be in first place all by itself w/ a win tonight. That’s thanks to Florida State getting upset Saturday. But with the Cardinals having been swept by FSU this season, that means they’ll need to finish at least a game ahead. I look for them to take no prisoners Sunday in this matchup w/ Va Tech. L’ville is off its second straight loss to FSU, which occurred Monday in Tallahassee. They’ve had plenty of time to “stew” over that 82-67 defeat. 

Virginia Tech has had little to no success throughout this ACC campaign. The Hokies have dropped eight of their last nine games, the only win coming at home vs. Pitt (were three-point favorites). They just lost Wednesday in Blacksburg, to Virginia, 56-53 as a three-point favorite. They’ve now failed to cover 10 of their last 11 games. 

Louisville has won and covered three straight in this ACC rivalry including 72-64 in Blacksburg in their only meeting last season. With almost a week to prepare and coming off a loss, I expect a really strong effort here. They’ve had two extra days to prepare compared to Va Tech. It’s also “Senior Day” (final home game). Yes, they must overcome the injury to Malik Williams, but the Cardinals are 16-1 SU at home this season, winning by almost 17 PPG. 10* Louisville

10* Over Creighton/St. John’s (12:00 ET): Very quietly, Creighton is a team peaking at the right time. While the Bluejays may not be garnering much national attention, they have made a pretty clear case to be considered one of the top 15 teams in America and perhaps the best in the Big East. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games including a current five-game win streak where they’ve covered the spread in every game. The primary reason for their success is an offense which ranks 5th nationally in efficiency. 

St. John’s isn’t having as much success as Creighton this season, but they can still score. Especially when they play at home. The Johnnies are averaging 77.2 PPG here, but that hasn’t done them much good lately as they are coming off losses at both Seton Hall and Villanova. Over the L5 games, the Red Storm have permitted their opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field. Creighton is obviously going to present a very tough challenge considering they come in averaging 78.2 PPG for the season.

I’ve established that both teams are capable of scoring plenty of points on any given night. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the last time they met, which was back on Feb 8th in Omaha. Creighton won that game 94-82 as an 8.5-pt favorite and it obviously sailed well past the total. I know it’s been “tough sledding” of late for the Johnnie’s w/o leading scorer Heron, but they’ll do enough offensively here for another Over. 10* Over Creighton/St. John’s

10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Utah State is trying to make sure that TWO Mountain West teams get in the NCAA Tournament (San Diego State the other) as they have won six in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But while the last 10 days have seen the Aggies prevail by scores of 78-58 (over Wyoming) and 94-56 (San Jose State), both of those games were at home. They also were against the two weakest teams in the conference. Tonight they visit Albuquerque where the home team has lost only three times. 

When it hosted San Diego State back on January 29th, New Mexico was undefeated at home (13-0). They were blown out in that game, 85-57, and have subsequently nosedived with six more losses in the last seven games. They are now 14-3 SU at home and the reason for the downturn has to do with injuries and players leaving the program altogether. Still, you should expect the remaining Lobos to “show up” for this final game of the regular season. 

The Lobos still average 83.2 PPG at home. The game vs. San Diego State marked the only time they were getting more than a single point here in “The Pit.” I think Utah State is due for an “off-night” here as they get ready for the Mt West Tournament, an event where they must at least make the final. They’re just 3-6 ATS on the road. 10* New Mexico

10* Davidson (7:00 ET): Dayton has emerged as a national force this season by winning 26 of its 28 games. The Flyers currently rank #4 in the country and unlike a San Diego State team that just lost its first game this season, I’ve got this team more in line with the pollsters. Right now, the only other team in the country w/o a conference loss is New Mexico State and they play in the rather hideous Big West. 

I’m not sure what it says about the rest of the A-10 that no one has been able to beat the Flyers yet. What’s interesting here is that Dayton was NOT even the preseason pick to win the conference. They were pegged for third behind VCU and Davidson. The latter is who comes calling Friday and lately the Wildcats have FINALLY begun to flash the form that made them a choice to finish ahead of Dayton this year. They have won 8 of 11 including a very impressive 74-49 beatdown of LaSalle earlier this week.

Looking at the only three games Davidson has lost over the last month or so, one was a 4OT game and another was decided by a single point. You’d have to go all the way back to early December to find a game that the Wildcats lost by more points than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While it’s been a disappointing season for them, this will be treated as the “Game of the Year.” Dayton’s last four wins have all been by single digits. 10* Davidson

10* Purdue (7:00 ET): Despite an overall record of .500 (14-14 SU), Purdue’s NCAA Tournament hopes aren’t done yet. But it’s getting to be “do or die” time for the Boilermakers, who not only need a strong finish to the regular season, but a strong showing in the Big 10 Tournament as well. They’ve lost four in a row, two of those coming as home favorites. But they’ll have many more chances to show that they’re better than several of the Big 10’s presumed NCAA Tourney teams, including here as they face the last time they beat.

It was back on Feb 8th that Purdue went to Indiana and won 74-62 as a three-point dog. That was the night Bobby Knight made his long-awaited return to Bloomington. At the time, it seemed like the Boilermakers were finally ready to “turn the corner” for good. They were coming off an impressive shellacking of Iowa (104-68!) here in West Lafayette just three days prior. But things haven’t gone their way since, including an ugly 71-63 home loss to Michigan on Sunday where they shot just 28% in the 1H.

IU has won three of its last four since Purdue handed them what was (at the time) a 4th straight loss. But I still consider Purdue the better team here, especially at home. This is the first time the Boilermakers have lost B2B home games in six years. Despite the .500 SU record, I still consider them to be just on the outskirts of the top 25 teams in the country. It’s been a massively disappointing season so far for Matt Painter’s team, but they’ve got a chance to rewrite the script against an Indiana team that is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games including 2-6 (SU and ATS) this season. 10* Purdue

10* Missouri (9:00 ET): I happen to think the SEC isn’t very good this year. Other than Kentucky, there’s no team I feel is a strong bet to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament (and the Wildcats are far from a lock to do so themselves). Neither of the two teams in question here are going to even make the NCAA Tournament, but it’s a matchup where there’s definitely value as the last place team in the conference is getting far too much respect here.

Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 1-13 SU conference record. That one win was a real shocker as they upset LSU (who was unbeaten in conference play at the time), here in Nashville. However, other than that, this season has been a disaster for the Commodores. They are being outscored by 11.4 PPG in SEC play and have lost their last five games by a pretty similar margin. I see no reason to expect them to win tonight. 

Missouri isn’t exactly a world-beater but this spread basically dictates that all we need from them tonight is a SU win. The Tigers had covered four in a row before losing to Arkansas last Saturday. Mizzou has had a lot more success in the SEC this year than has Vandy, beating the likes of Arkansas (first time around), Auburn and Florida, all of whom could be NCAA Tournament teams. They also nearly upset LSU on the road. Lay the points here. 10* Missouri

10* Baylor (8:00 ET): Pretty simple here as Baylor is looking to bounce back from its loss Saturday to Kansas. That loss snapped the Bears’ 23-game win streak and dropped them from #1 in the polls. Still though, there’s plenty to celebrate here in Waco. This remains a very likely #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they could end up as the #1 overall seed in the field of 68. 

Kansas State is the team that finds itself in the unenviable position of facing Baylor tonight. This is a case of “wrong place, wrong time” for the Wildcats and to make matters worse they come in on a seven-game losing streak. The most points they’ve scored in any of those games is 67, ironically against Baylor, but the issues scoring are likely to really bite this team tonight w/ Baylor allowing just 56.8 PPG at home.

Provided there’s no letdown amongst the players, Baylor should easily roll in this one. Kansas State has major issues scoring (60.5 PPG away from Manhattan) and has just one win away from home all season. The Wildcats’ current form doesn’t inspire any confidence that they can get the job done here and this one has the potential to get “ugly” in a hurry. Baylor is #2 in the country in defensive efficiency and has proven it can win games by large margins even w/o large production from its leading scorers. 10* Baylor

10* Under LaSalle/Davidson (7:00 ET): Davidson had certainly hoped to be a bigger factor in the A-10 this year, but like everyone else in the conference, the Wildcats are looking up at Dayton. Still though, that hasn’t stopped them from playing better of late. Davidson has won 7 of its last 10 games with one of the losses coming in 4OT’s and another coming by a single point. Of particular interest to this selection is the fact the L4 games have all gone Over the number. 

LaSalle went 2-0 last week including an upset win at GW on Sunday. The Explorers entered their last game as three-point pups and came away w/ a 72-62 win in what was (sadly) maybe their most impressive showing in conference play so far. Prior to last week, LaSalle was just 2-10 SU in A-10 games. Their three conference wins besides the one at GW have come at the expense of Fordham & St. Joe’s, who are a combined 2-26 SU in conference play and tied for last. 

I mentioned earlier that Davidson’s L4 games have all gone Over. Well, the last one would NOT have done so had it not been for OT. There was also another game in the streak that saw them sink a season-high 18 three-pointers (against Fordham), which won’t happen again anytime soon. Davidson is actually a good defensive team (allowing just 61.1 PPG at home) and w/ LaSalle shooting only 40% in conference play, this looks like a pretty clear Under to me. 10* Under LaSalle/Davidson

10* Texas (7:00 ET): West Virginia has a problem winning on the road. An overtime loss at TCU Saturday dropped them to just 3-7 SU and ATS in “true” road games. It was their 5th consecutive loss away from Morgantown and three of those have come as favorites. As good as the Mountaineers are at home, I just can’t trust them laying points on the road right now and will play accordingly tonight as they visit Austin. 

Texas is coming off a 2-0 week, including a win over TCU. While the Longhorns got the Horned Frogs here at home, they did have to travel to Kansas State for Saturday’s win and Manhattan is not an easy place to win. Even more impressive is that the 70-59 upset (UT was +5) was a lot more lopsided than the final score showed. The Longhorns led 42-23 at the half and were never really threatened. 

To say Texas is “thinking revenge” here would be putting it mildly. They lost by 38 up in Morgantown last month, a result I’m sure HC Shaka Smart and his players have not forgotten. As noted above, WVU is obviously a much different team on the road. They are just 1-4 SU/ATS their L5 games overall. The Longhorns allow just 60.8 PPG in Austin and have allowed less than that in three of their last four games overall. Believe it or not, WVU is just one game up on Texas in the Big 12 standings. The Longhorns are getting career-best production out of Courtney Ramey right now. 10* Texas

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): At last glance, Cincinnati is considered to be one of the last teams in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) that wouldn’t be in a “play-in game.” That makes today’s game vs. Wichita State critically important for the Bearcats as a loss here would place them squarely on the Tourney bubble. A win further solidifies their status as one of three teams from the American Conference likely to get in. 

Wichita State is one of the two (Houston being the other) that is considered “safe” as far as making the Tourney goes. After a three-game losing streak to start the month, the Shockers have now won three straight - all by double digit margins. But those three wins have all come against bottom teams in the American. Interestingly enough, two of those three losses they took earlier this month came against Houston and Cincinnati. They lost 80-79 at home to Cincy as five-point chalk. 

Cincinnati has only been beaten twice in its last nine games. Once was by a single point at UConn. The other was Wednesday vs. UCF, a game which went to double overtime. So, again, you can see how important this game is for them. While they’ve failed to cover four straight (overall), this is a team that’s 11-2 SU at home and covered both times they’ve been in the -3.5 to -6 range here. 10* Cincinnati

10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge (10:00 ET): UC Irvine has been the dominant team out in the Big West the last two seasons. Last year, the Anteaters went 15-1 SU in conference play and 31-6 SU overall. They’re not nearly that dominant this season, but still have only lost two conference games and come into Saturday having won three straight. Thursday saw them avenge one of those two Big West defeats as they easily handled Long Beach State, winning that game 70-55 as 15-point favorites (so it was a push). 

CS Northridge was a team seemingly “left for dead” at one point as the Matadors started their season with seven consecutive losses. They are 11-9 SU since, but just got blitzed by UC Davis on Thursday, losing 110-98! No there wasn’t any overtime involved to get to that final score. Both teams shot almost 60% from the game and were a combined 25 of 44 on three-point attempts. While we shouldn’t expect that level of shooting again, it would require a pretty substantial dropoff for this one to go Under. 

UC Irvine’s last four games have all gone Under as they’ve held the opposition to just over 60 PPG. But that’s going to be hard to do here as CS Northridge averages more than 80 PPG at home. Of course, you should also expect UC Irvine to score it’s “fair share” as Northridge is giving up almost 80 PPG for the season. This is the first meeting of the year and what’s interesting for UC Irvine is that the majority of their first meetings w/ conference opponents this year have gone Over. 10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge

10* Purdue (2:00 ET): Purdue has been one of the most confounding teams in the entire country this season. Thought by many (including me!) to be among the top 25 teams in the entire country, the Boilermakers have suffered 13 defeats and are now in serious danger of failing to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. At 14-13 SU overall, winning out between now and the Big 10 Tournament may be a necessity, especially in light of three straight losses. It’s obviously a “must win” today vs. Michigan. 

The Wolverines went from unranked at the start of the season to as high as #4 in the polls. Clearly, they were underestimated with an unproven HC (Juwan Howard), but it was laughable to me that they were ever considered the 4th best team in the country. They got that high on the strength of an impressive early season showing in the Bahamas. While beating Gonzaga still looks impressive, the win over UNC (who was #6 at the time - HA!) definitely isn’t. 

The Wolverines just handed Rutgers its first home loss of the season, 60-52 on Wednesday. They were 3.5-pt dogs in that game and it was their fourth consecutive win - SU and ATS. Two of those four wins have been as underdogs, but I don’t see them pulling the trick in B2B games as Purdue is about as desperate as it gets here. The Boilermakers are still 10-3 SU when playing at home and 12-4 SU as a favorite. We’re getting a great discounted price on them today. Trust me. 10* Purdue