10* William & Mary (4:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is still unbeaten in CAA play (20-2 SU overall) following Thursday's 87-76 win at James Madison. If one were to omit Gonzaga from the discussion, then there's probably a legit argument to be made that the Seahawks are the top mid-major in the country this season. But laying points on the road for the second time in three days can be tricky. Here they'll be taking on a William & Mary team that is not only unbeaten at home (averaging 91.5 PPG!), but will certainly be hungry for revenge after getting humiliated 16 days ago down in Wilmington, 101-77. It should be noted that W&M covered both meetings last season including an 18-point win here at home. Take the points.

William & Mary is now 8-0 SU at home following Thursday's 82-58 blowout of a bad Delaware team. That win and cover actually snapped a five-game ATS losing skid. The Tribe shot almost 57% from the field in the win, including 11 of 23 from three-point range. They led by double digits most of the way. Looking back at that first meeting w/ UNCW, there are two things I expect to very different this go around. One is W&M leading scorer Daniel Dixon is highly unlikely to be held to just 10 pts again. That marked a season-low for Dixon, who averages 19.0 PPG in conference play. Also, the William & Mary defense is generally outstanding at home. They let UNCW shoot 55.7% from the floor in the first meeting. Look for that number to come way down here.

UNCW has dominated the CAA the L2 seasons, but they haven't had much luck here in Harrisonburg. Their last win here came back in 2012 and overall they've dropped seven of nine to the Tribe. Last year's visit was a "real bitter pill to swallow" as they allowed 23 straight points in the second half to go from 12 up to an eventual 18-point loss. I already mentioned that W&M is averaging an outstanding 91.5 PPG here at home. Well, they're allowing only 66.5 on 40% shooting as well. UNCW couldn't miss in the first meeting, but the fact they allow 47% shooting on the road while W&M shoots 53.6% at home will lead to a dramatic reversal of fortune tonight. 10* William & Mary

10* Eastern Michigan (3:30 ET): This game will carry special importance for Eastern Michigan. Not only are the Eagles coming off B2B losses, the last one coming as seven-point home faves Tues vs. Ball State, but they have not won a game here in Oxford in a LONG time. My records (go back to '97) show it's been 11 straight losses on the road to MAC rival Miami. But despite what we've seen recently, this year's Eagles team is clearly superior to the RedHawks. EMU is still tied for the lead in the MAC West, having gone 4-3 SU in conference play. Meanwhile, Miami has really struggled. They'd lost five in a row before sneaking by Buffalo (by a single point) Tuesday. I'll lay the points here as when the teams met LY in Ypsilanti, the Eagles prevailed by 25.

A lack of rebounding really hurt Eastern Michigan Tuesday night in Muncie as they were -8 on the glass against Ball State and lost 88-80. Allowing 12 offensive rebounds was a real killer and I will concede rebounding is a weak spot for this team. But that's not as big of a concern when they're making shots. They come in averaging 81.0 PPG, which is tied for 36th in the country. They scored 50 in the second half alone Tuesday. After shooting below 40% each of the L2 games, I expect massive improvement tonight. Last Friday's loss at Akron (still unbeaten in conference) was certainly excusable. This is a really important game for the Eagles to win so they can at least stay tied for the division lead. As a road favorite, they are 2-0 this season, winning by an average margin of 27 points per game.

Miami actually trailed Buffalo by as many as eight points Tuesday before rallying for the eight-point win. Typically not a great defensive team, the RedHawks held the Bulls to just 40% shooting for the game. Three of their previous five opponents shot at least 54% from the field. That's bad news against a potent offense like the one Eastern Michigan brings to town. By the way, EMU is holding conference opponents below 40% shooting from the floor so far this season! I feel they're ready to snap this long losing streak in Oxford, not to mention bounce back from a tough week overall. 10* Eastern Michigan

10* Yale (8:00 ET): These Ivy League schools just met last Friday w/ Yale winning 75-74. They were 6.5-pt road favorites in the contest, so even w/ the non-cover, it does appear there's value here with the Bulldogs back in Connecticut. Brown was able to keep pace last week due to the three-pointer (they made 12 compared to just five for Yale), but on the road, the Bears' shooting from long distance predictably dips. Furthermore, when they are the road team, Brown is allowing opponents to shoot a ghastly 53.2% from the floor. Lay the points

Tonight marks Yale's first home game in Ivy League play. They won two of three on the road so far, only losing to conference favorite Princeton. The Bulldogs won all six non-conference home games by an average of 22.1 points per game. Yes, that number is somewhat skewed due to a 102-46 win over Mitchell College on January 7th, but the last four wins have all come by double digit margins. They also have beaten Brown five straight times overall. They are 15-4 ATS L19 Friday games and 14-4 ATS when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest.

Brown is just 2-7 SU away from home this year due in large part to giving up over 80 PPG. They did win at Penn on 1.14, but also lost by 31 at Princeton the previous night. Yake has actually won 20 in a row at home (nation's 5th longest streak!), so this is a tough place to come in and win. Yes, Brown led by 12 at the half last Friday, but that was at home and I do not anticipate any kind of similar deficit taking place here. Yale is not only the Ivy League leaders in assists and rebounds per game, they are the top shooting team as well. They also commit the fewest fouls per game in the entire country! That's huge because Brown is the top FT shooting team in the league. Take away that part of the Bears' game and it should be a long night here. 10* Yale

8* Murray State (8:00 ET): This may seem like a bit of an "odd" game to choose, but after suffering an outright loss at Austin Peay on Saturday, I expect Murray State to bounce back in a major way tonight at home against SE Missouri State. Thus far, the Racers have gotten to play only two OVC games at home. Both were wins, against Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky. They've also won three of five on the conference road w/ both losses coming by four points or less. Meanwhile, SE Missouri State was just able to take care of some advantageous scheduling as they drew the two weakest teams in the OVC and beat both at home. Lay the points.

It was an overtime loss for Murray State on Saturday to Austin Peay. Nevertheless, they still lead the West Division in the OVC. Going into Austin Peay, the Racers had won three in a row. They led at the half. Here at home, the team averages 86.5 PPG and is 7-1 SU. They destroyed SE Missouri State here last season, winning by 27 points.

SE Missouri State has been a disaster away from home, going just 1-11 straight up. All but two of those losses were in "true" road games. They are being outscored by 9.4 PPG in them. At no point this season have the Indians won three straight games. Like I said earlier, they just got to host the two worst teams in the OVC (SIU Edwardsville and E Illinois). At one point in December, this team lost seven in a row, including a home game to Chicago State. 8* Murray State

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is one of only a handful of teams still w/o a conference loss. In what is a REALLY down year for "mid majors," the Seahawks are making a case that they could be the best in the nation. They're 19-2 SU w/ the losses coming at Clemson and Middle Tennessee (the other top mid major). They've gone a perfect 8-0 so far against the rest of the Colonial, winning by an average margin of 13 PPG. But I believe tonight to be a tricky spot as they're laying double digits on the road. It's a virtual certainty that they'll be getting James Madison's best shot here as the Dukes will be happy to be back home following consecutive road losses. Take the points.

While James Madison has dropped four of its last five, two of those losses were by two points or less. Since the start of CAA play, the Duke have gone 3-1 SU at home. The one loss was by two points against College of Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference. Over the last week, they've gone 0 for 2 on the road w/ a one-point loss at William & Mary and then a second loss to Charleston, this time by 13. But despite falling by double digits, the game was actually pretty even. There were six ties and 10 lead changes, but a 35-18 edge in FT attempts for Charleston largely determined the final score. It was also a tough spot for JMU as Charleston was coming off its first CAA loss, to UNC Wilmington no less.

UNC Wilmington won its game by 13 on  Saturday, but did not cover as huge 18-pt favorites at Drexel. Again, that was another game that was close at the half, but the home team was able to pull away late (even though they were just 9 of 34 from three-point range). Clearly, we've reached a point where the lines are inflated on this team in conference play. The Seahawks have scored at least 84 in five of their past six games, but here I look for them to struggle offensively as JMU is giving up just 66.8 PPG. Also, this is a big revenge spot for JMU as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against UNCW. 10* James Madison

8* Drexel (7:00 ET): Drexel is not having a good season at all as they have just one conference win against six losses. Tonight, they host CAA rival Hofstra in a big revenge spot. Hofstra has won all five H2H meetings between the schools the last two seasons, including a 3-0 sweep in 2016. But it's not as if the Pride are having themselves a memorable campaign here in 2017 either. They are just 2-6 in conference play, one of those victories coming Saturday at home against Northeastern. Both league wins have been by five points or less. The idea of this team laying points on the road seems fishy to me. Lay the points.

With a defense giving up an average of 81.6 points per game on the road, Hofstra hardly seems like an ideal candidate to be laying points. They were favored by eight over Delaware on the road in one of their two CAA wins. But they won that game by only two points. In fact, their two wins as road faves both came by two points as they beat Columbia 88-86 back on November 29th. The only other time they were a road fave was early in the year, at Manhattan, and they lost that game outright. Interestingly, they haven't won any games this year as an underdog (0-6). Though it was called an "upset" by some, they were actually slight favorites (-1.5) vs. Northeastern on Saturday. The Pride shot better than 54% for the game there and converted a 3-point play w/ just 17 seconds to go for the win.

I just don't see Hofstra making it two in a row here. Note that Drexel ran into UNC Wilmington (see other writeup) on Saturday and played them tough for a half as they were down only four at the break. Having played the best team in the CAA twice, Drexel has clearly had the more challenging conference schedule to this point. Hofstra has lost its last three CAA road games. They are just 8-19 ATS off a conference win the L3 seasons. 8* Drexel

10* Hawaii (11:59 ET): As you might expect, Hawaii is far more competitive out on the island as they're 8-6 SU here. That may not sound awe-inspiring (and it isn't), but it's also a "far cry" from what we've seen from this team on the mainland thus far, in an albeit small sample size. In four games away from home (two "true" road, two neutral), they're 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by double digit margin. Thankfully, the Warriors play at home tonight against UC Riverside, a team that is 1-9 SU in "true" road games. That one win came in their last one, last Thursday's outright triumph (were +7.5) at CS-Fullerton. They followed that win up on Saturday by beating undermanned UCSB 65-55 at home to improve to 5-0 ATS in Big West play. But I say that run comes to an end here. Lay the points.

Hawaii did lose here at home Saturday, 76-70 to Cal Davis as 2.5-pt chalk. It was a close game throughout w/ the game essentially decided at the FT line late. I'm always surprised when a road team can get to the free throw with great regularity than their host, but UC Davis did it with a shocking 37 attempts there. The loss snapped Hawaii's two game win streak as they'd beaten both Long Beach State and Cal State Northridge previously. The last time they lost a game outright as home chalk, they responded w/ a 20-pt win their next time out. This was back on November 27th against Arkansas Pine Bluff.

UC Riverside is not strong defensively as they give up 77 PPG on the road. Therefore, it was pretty shocking to see them hold their last opponent to just 30% shooting for the game, even if it was at home. But keep in mind that opponent, UCSB, is 331st in the country in scoring and currently w/o its second leading scorer. Prior to winning the L3 games, the first two as underdogs, the Highlanders had just three wins total in the first 14 games. They'd lost 9 of their last 10. The road team won both matchups between these Big West rivals last year, including the Highlanders pulling an upset as 14-pt dogs on the road. That won't happen again though as Hawaii should shoot a lot better this time around. They are 10-3 ATS off a conference loss, by the way. 10* Hawaii

10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Two Big 12 teams coming off outright wins as dogs meet Tuesday night in Ames. Actually, Kansas State has won SU B2B times as dogs, turning the trick at both Oklahoma State and West Virginia's expense. The Wildcats are now a perfect 4-0 ATS taking points this season. But for whatever reason, Iowa State appears to have become a tad bit underrated, at least according to oddsmakers and public here. The Cyclones do not lose at home often and come off a 92-87 win at Oklahoma over the weekend. With some better luck in close games (four losses by 4 pts or less), they'd be high in the polls. As it stands right now, they're not even ranked. But I have them as a Top 20 team and will lay the points here.

The four close losses that ISU has suffered came at the hands of Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Baylor and Kansas, all of whom are ranked in the Top 20. Three of them (Cincy the exception) checked in ranked in the Top 25 in the newest poll! So it's not as if the six losses are something the team should "hang its head" over. Saturday in Norman, it took two overtimes, but they were able to snap a two-game losing streak. The key was Deonte Burden scoring a career high 31 points. Also, they forced 25 turnovers and held OU to just 40% shooting. After falling behind early (were down 28-9!), ISU would go on to score 21 of the game's next 22 points and it was back and forth from there. Note that at home this year, the Cyclones are outscoring opponents by 23.4 PPG while holding them to a 36.1 FG%. Thus, this looks like a pretty short number to lay.

Kansas State is off a big win over West Virginia (got me!), but that was in Manhattan. Their four "true" road games thus far are the four games that they've been underdogs and as mentioned before, they're 4-0 ATS including a pair of losses by two points or less (at Texas Tech and Kansas). So neither side has been that lucky in close game so far, though both did just win by less than five on Saturday. K State was able to beat WVU (1st win over ranked opponent TY) thanks to forcing turnovers (similar to ISU vs. Oklahoma) and also had to rally from a double digit first half deficit. Despite both teams profiling so similarly, I feel the home court edge is being underrated and ISU is the better team anyway. 10* Iowa State

8* Under NC State/Duke (7:00 ET): Because NC State is coming off a wild 93-88 game vs. Wake Forest (lost), we are able to get an O/U line that's higher than normal for Duke, who could be w/o Grayson Allen. Allen was injured (finger) in the last game, a 70-58 win over Miami, but is listed as probable. Despite the absence of Allen's thuggish behavior, the Blue Devils still turned in a strong defensive effort against "The U," allowing just 58 points. However, concerning is that nearly HALF of their own points scored (31) came off Miami turnovers. The Dukies actually were behind at halftime (trailed by 11!) thanks to one of their worst shooting halves of the year (0 for 12 from 3-pt range). Remember they are still w/o Coach K on the bench (Jeff Capel serving as interim). I'm on the Under in this one.

NC State certainly has issues defensively. That should be obvious when you consider the fact they shot 51% at home, scored 88 pts and still lost Saturday. They're now giving up an average of 84.7 PPG in ACC play. But even though the game vs. Wake Forest flew Over, a total this high lends itself to the Under. Prior to Saturday, there had been only two Wolfpack games where the O/U line was 160+. Both stayed Under and that's even with them allowing 107 pts in one of them! What was bad about Saturday is that it was Wake Forest's first ACC road win in three seasons. Even w/ Duke's rather "infamous" homecourt edge, I do not believe they'll go 29 of 33 from the FT line like Wake did 48 hours ago. Nor will NC State shoot as well tonight.

Due to injuries and the Allen suspension, Duke has been using a lot of different starting lineups of late. The end result is they've only topped 75 points twice in the last seven games. Again, had it not been for all the Miami turnovers on Saturday, I'm not sure how the Blue Devils would have scored. Defensively though, this team is pretty solid. They are holding opponents to a field goal percentage of only 38.7% here at Cameron and giving up just 61.1 points per game. That includes just 26.6% from three-point range. In four "true" road games thus far, NC State is averaging only 64.8 PPG, a dramatic decrease (-21.4 PPG) from what they average in Raleigh. 8* Under NC State/Duke

10* Iona (7:00 ET): While still one of the top teams in the MAAC (#2 behind Monmouth?), Iona hasn't been quite as dominant this year. Well, at least on the road. Last Tuesday, the Gaels snapped a four-game skid on the road by winning 82-67 at Manhattan. They followed that up by beating Fairfield Friday, 96-89, but failed to cover the nine-point spot at home. But tonight, for the first time, they actually get to play consecutive home games in conference play. The opponent is Quinnipiac (known for it's polling!) and this would be a revenge spot for Iona as they lost up in Hamden earlier this month, 97-91 (overtime) as seven-point favorites. Given what the line was there and the change in venue, this price looks to be a real bargain on Iona. Lay the points.

In addition to being a university known for its polling, Quinnipiac has a basketball team that's been pulling it's fair share of upsets of late. Compared to other conferences, MAAC play started early this year. Quinnipiac lost its first league game, back on Dec 1, 91-72 at Monmouth. But since then, the Bobcats have roared to a 7-0-1 ATS mark in league play including three outright upsets. Two have come in the last 10 days, the last one being Friday at Canisius, a game where they allowed 58 second half pts and still won. They were fortunate to jump out to a 15-point halftime lead there and also shot 58.8% for the game (8 of 13 from 3-pt range!). I seriously doubt that they'll be able to come close to matching those numbers here on the road. It also helped that they had five days off before the Canisius game. Just to show what the market thought of this team coming into the year, Quinnipiac has been a dog in every MAAC game but one (were -1.5 vs. Manhattan). 

The first meeting between these teams saw Iona blow a second half lead and fall in OT. I took the Gaels their next time out as they responded w/ a 15-pt win at Manhattan. Friday vs. Fairfield, they never trailed (shot 56.9%) and won despite the opponent sinking 12 of 25 three-pointers. That game, like this one, was a revenge spot. It's important to note that Iona averages over 86 PPG at home where they've only lost one time. In all three MAAC home games, they've topped 90 points! I look for the Gaels to exact revenge yet again here against an opponent that is due to start regressing. 10* Iona

10* VCU (2:00 ET): VCU might be one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 (Dayton is the best, IMO), but lately they have not played like it, dropping B2B games as favorites to Davidson and Fordham. The loss earlier this week to Fordham came in overtime and by just two points w/ the game-winning basket being scored at the buzzer. That game winner came after VCU's Justin Tillman missed the front end of a one and one (game was tied). Both losses did take place on the road. This afternoon, the Rams welcome LaSalle to the Commonwealth and I like their chances of bouncing back given not only the home record, but the Explorers' lousy defense. Lay the points.

VCU is 8-1 SU at home this year, outscoring foes by 17.6 points per game. The last time they played here, they destroyed George Washington by 30. But then came the loss to Davidson last Saturday as the team shot only 35% from the floor. The Rams never led against Fordham on Wednesday (battle of "Rams") as 22 turnovers proved costly in a game where they still outshot their opponents. Defensively, I believe VCU is more than fine as they rank in the top 54 nationally, allowing just 66.1 points per game. On the offensive end, LaSalle might be first in the A-10 in FG%, but VCU is a close second. The Rams had scored 81+ in three straight games before suffering the B2B losses.

LaSalle is all offense and no defense. They give up 84.9 PPG on the road, which is a pretty frightening number. They do come into this game tied for first place in the conference as they've won five in a row. But four of those wins have come at home, two of them against St. Louis and Duquesne. The L3 games have all seen the Explorers shoot the lights out (over 58% overall!), but that's not sustainable, especially against this VCU defense. Last year, these teams exchanged victories, the road team winning both times. So it's about time the host returned the favor.  I look for VCU to take advantage of LaSalle's leaky defense in this one. Another edge is they've had an extra day to prepare as LaSalle's last game took place Thursday (at home vs. Davidson), a game they still allowed 83 points. 10* VCU

10* West Virginia (6:00 ET): I haven't even attempted to hide my affinity for Bob Huggins' West Virginia team this year. I've taken them multiple times already and with one exception (at Texas Tech), have always come out on the winning end. This evening sees them hitting the road, looking to bounce back from just their third loss of the season. Like the previous two, Wednesday's loss was close (by two points), but it was definitely the most shocking to date. As 16.5-pt favorites in Morgantown, they lost to Oklahoma in overtime. WVU's three losses this year have now come by a total of seven points, none by larger than a four-point margin. I realize Kansas State's "Octagon of Doom" is a tough place to win at, but the Mountaineers are just too good to drop B2B games. Lay the points.

Kansas State is off an impressive road win as they beat Oklahoma State 96-88 (+3) on Wednesday. Of course, West Virginia has already gone to Stillwater and won by 17. In KSU's win, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. That's highly unlikely to be repeated here, even at home. Also, it's not a good sign that the Wildcats couldn't really shake the Pokes until late, even shooting as well as they did. They allowed 88 points. Nevertheless, they'll take it as they'd previously dropped three of four, including a home game to Baylor right after the Bears got whitewashed in Morgantown earlier in the week. Making matters more difficult here is the fact that PG Kamau Stokes left the Oklahoma State game w/ an ankle injury. If he can't go here (listed as questionable), good luck handling WVU's press.

Nicknamed "Press Virginia," the Mountaineers lead the country by forcing 23.8 TO's per game. They are #1 in TO margin and it's not even close as they're more than double the #2 team. Given the fact KSU could be w/o its starting point guard and already is turning it over on 18.6 percent of possessions in league play, this does not appear to be a favorable matchup for them. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma, in part, due to forcing only 12 turnovers. I expect them to amp up the pressure here. This is a deep team, one of only two in the country to grab at least 40% of its own misses at the offensive end as well. 10* West Virginia

10* Kentucky (6:00 ET): These are the only two teams still w/o loss in SEC play. But as you can tell from the line, "not all unbeatens are created equal." While its obvious that Kentucky is the top team in its conference, a case could also be made that they are the top team in the country. The Wildcats come into Saturday ranked #5 in the country and have won six straight since their three-point loss to Louisville. Those six wins have all come in SEC play as they're outscoring foes by a whopping 20.6 points per game. Meanwhile, South Carolina might be ranked as well, but I'm not sure they're among the 35 best teams in the country, let alone top 25. Their avg MOV in conf play is less than nine points per game. I expect UK to roll here. Lay the points.

Coach Cal's team has failed to cover three in a row. They're off one of their closest calls so far as they only prevailed 88-81 in Starkville against Mississippi State as 14-pt favorites. The fact that MSU shot the ball so well (54.2%) is what kept them in the game. However, I'll point out that the Wildcats were up by as many as 17 in the second half. That was their highest shooting percentage allowed for the season and only the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor (other two were N Carolina & UCLA). Offensively, there are no issues here. They've scored at least 87 pts in every league game while shooting 52.2%! Only UCLA is rated higher in offensive efficiency, nationally.

South Carolina has never had much success against Kentucky. Over the past two seasons, they are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Wildcats, losing by 15, 34 and 27. The most lopsided loss came here in Lexington where they're just 1-16 SU past 17 visits. I wouldn't be too worried about this price range either as UK is already 6-2 ATS this season laying 12.5 or more points at Rupp Arena. Kudos to the job HC Frank Martin is doing in Columbia, but his Gamecocks are in over their head in this one. This is not exactly a favorable spot either after having to play Florida on Tuesday. They grinded out a four-point win there (at home) despite shooting a horrible 29.4% from the floor. They are now shooting just 38.1% in SEC play. Anywhere near that average here and this will quickly turn into "blowout city." 10* Kentucky

8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): This is the Aggies' second consecutive game being favored at home. They lost (by two) to Arkansas on Tuesday. That marked their second consecutive loss as they've started 1-5 in SEC play. I do not see them dropping B2B games here in College Station, so early this afternoon I'll be laying the points as they welcome in a Georgia team that's probably a bit overconfident coming off a 10-point win over Vanderbilt. That game took place in Athens, however. While the 'Dawgs might be 3-0 ATS on the SEC road thus far, I don't see them keeping that up. Last year, they were thrashed by A&M, losing by 34 at home. While I'm sure the players remember, the revenge angle is superseeded here by likelihood of an Aggies' bounce-back on their home court.

In fact, Texas A&M is just 1-7 ATS its last eight games. They've been favored in the L2 games, dropping both outright. Last Saturday saw them go down at Mississippi State, 67-59 as 2.5-pt chalk. They dominated the board in that game (38-23 rebounding edge), but lost due to 22 turnovers and horrific (1 of 14) shooting from three-point range. They actually jumped out to a 10-0 lead to start the game. It was another blown lead Tuesday as they blew a 12-pt second half lead vs. Arkansas. Again, the team failed to shoot the ball well from three-point range (6 of 20). But, overall, the team has shot the ball this year (47.1%) and while depth has been a concern for HC Billy Kennedy (lost four starters from LY's Sweet 16 team), it's not as if they've been playing all that poorly.

A&M can defend as here at home, they're giving up an average of just 62 PPG. It is Georgia that really doesn't shoot well from three-point range, at least on the road where they're just 27.7% for the season. I'll point out that A&M has already faced both unbeaten SEC schools (Kentucky, South Carolina) and was actually FAVORED against a top 20 Arizona team on a neutral floor. The market has simply moved too far against them for this one as simply can't see them failing to cover for a third straight time as a short favorite. They are still 38-8 SU L46 home games. 8* Texas A&M

10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET): Have we really reached the point of the College Basketball season where we can start talking about revenge? How time flies! In a result you likely missed (unless you're a HUGE fan of Horizon League basketball), Cleveland State beat WI-Milwaukee at home on New Year's Eve, 62-53 as five-point faves. The Vikings shot 53.5% from the floor in that game, 7 of 17 from three-point range and made 9 of 11 free throws. That's a highly irregular efficient day on the offensive end for this team. Asking CSU to win on the road seems a bit much given their 1-9 SU record in "true" road affairs. They are also just 3-10 ATS as underdogs. Having to only lay the shortest of numbers, WI-Milwaukee will get its revenge tonight.

Admittedly, little has gone right for WI-Milwaukee this season. They have just one win in Horizon League play thus far (66-58 over N Kentucky) and that's their ONLY win in the L10 games period. After blowing an 11-pt lead in the second half vs. Wright State last Saturday, the Panthers fell on the road to IL-Chicago on Tuesday, 71-57 as four-point dogs. That was actually their largest margin of defeat so far in conference play. Each of the L2 years have seen they cover easily here at home against Cleveland State. Last year was a 34-point win while 2015 brought an outright upset as four-point dogs. The Panthers have been far more competitive at home, outscoring opponents and holding them to just 65 PPG.

After beating WI-Milwaukee, Cleveland State promptly lost its last four games. Twice they were held to 54 points or less. But then on Monday they pulled a somewhat shocking upset, winning at Oakland 76-65 as 13.5-pt dogs. That was their first and only "true" road win thus far. They received a career-high 32 points from Rob Edwards, but expecting a repeat performance seems a little "fool-hardy." The Vikings had a strong showing from three-point range in the upset, but are actually dead last among Horizon League teams in 3-pt%. Little has gone right for Milwaukee thus far, but this is a game that they should - and WILL - win. 10* WI-Milwaukee

8* Wright State (7:00 ET): What am I missing here? Wright State has already beaten Detroit once this year, on the road, and did it as 6.5-pt road favorites. The final score was 85-72. Therefore, I'm trying to figure out this line for Friday's rematch as the Raiders are essentially being asked to lay the same number on their home floor. I get that Detroit comes in off B2B wins, one of them an impressive upset at Oakland. But this line appears to be way off from where I sit as prior to those B2B wins, Detroit was just 2-14 SU for the season w/ one of those wins coming in the season opener against a non-DI school. Lay the points here. 

Wright State had dropped B2B games before playing WI-Milwaukee last Saturday. They beat the Panthers 70-67. While they definitely had to rally late to do so (never led in the first half), it's always impressive to win on the conference road, especially when playing there for the second time in three nights. It's a much better situation here for Wright State as they've been off since Saturday while Detroit had to play Monday. This will be the Raiders' first home game since suffering an outright loss to Youngstown State on 1.7. They're still 7-2 SU at the Nutter Center, however, and outscoring visitors by 13.3 points per game. Detroit is just 1-9 SU on the road, allowing 86.2 points per game. It's no surprise (to me) that Wright State achieved its highest scoring game in Horizon League play thus far at the Titans' expense.

Detroit had lost five in a row before picking up its lone road win of the last Friday, a real shocker over Oakland as they were 18.5-pt dogs in that one. They followed that up by winning Monday, 87-71 at home over Youngstown State. Again though, this is a team w/ only four wins all year. They allowed Wright State to shoot 55% from the floor in the first meeting, including 12 of 21 from three-point range. The Raiders are shooting better than 40% from behind the arc here at home. Meanwhile, I would not expect Detroit to have a good night from three-point range as they're only 30% for the year and WSU holds visiting teams to 29%.  8* Wright State

10* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Right now, everyone in Conference USA is chasing first place Middle Tennessee, who is probably one of the top so-called "mid majors" in the entire country. One of the three teams only one game back is Louisiana Tech and I believe the Bulldogs have the best shot out of the three to catch the Blue Raiders. They won't be playing MTSU until the end of the month (in Murfreesboro), but between then and now they have some favorable draws, including this one at home vs. Rice. While sharing the same overall record as La Tech (12-6 SU), Rice is only 2-3 SU in conference play (La Tech is 4-1). The matching overall records is a bit misleading when you consider that twice in the last month La Tech has lost a one-point game. Lay the points here.

One of those one-point losses for La Tech came the last time they played here in Ruston as they fell 69-68 to UTSA as 16.5-pt favorites. Since then, they've rattled off consecutive victories on the road over Charlotte and Old Dominion. The latter came Saturday as short one-point underdogs. The Bulldogs shot a blistering 56.8% from the floor and while that will be difficult to match here, Rice is not good defensively as they allow 76.6 PPG on the road, including better than 40% three-point shooting! Despite the shocking loss to UTSA two Saturdays ago, La Tech is still 9-2 SU in Ruston and outscoring opponents here by an average of 20.6 points per game. They average over 80 PPG while giving up just 58.9. Perhaps the three-point line will be the difference here as at home, La Tech is allowing its opponents to shoot only 29.4% from behind the arc.

Rice has already played Middle Tennessee, at home, and lost 80-77. That was a pretty admirable showing back on 1.5, but now for the first time in 17 days the Owls have to hit the road. They avoided what would have been an 0-3 home stand w/ a 101-79 thrashing of North Texas on Saturday. To be clear, North Texas is very bad. I mentioned earlier that La Tech shot 56.8% from the floor in their last game. Well, they were at 61.2% the game before that. So Rice's porous defense is in trouble here. La Tech is actually one of only 10 teams in the country currently ranked in the top 50 in FG% offense and defense. What made Saturday's shooting so impressive is that ODU came in ranked fourth nationally in points allowed! 10* Louisiana Tech

8* Iowa (7:00 ET): For a third consecutive season, Maryland has started the season at 15-2 (SU) or better. This year's squad is now 16-2 SU after going to Illinois on Saturday and "upsetting" the slightly favored Illini (line was Maryland +3.5), 62-56. It was the Terps' third straight outright win as an underdog here in Big 10 play. That runs their record to an impressive 6-0 ATS as a dog this season! But, as we'll see, this has been quite the fortunate team so far in 2016-17. Meanwhile, we cannot say the same for Iowa, who is off an awful 35-point road loss to Northwestern on Saturday. What made that defeat particularly frustrating is the Hawkeyes were coming off an impressive upset of Purdue earlier in the week. I'll call for a bounce back here.

Though 16-2 straight up, Maryland has had plenty of close calls go their way. Eight wins have come by six points or less, including the last two. They also won at Michigan 77-70 on January 7th as eight-point underdogs. They followed that up w/ a home win over Indiana, 75-72, as 1.5-pt dogs. Turnover margin and free throw attempts, both roughly a 2:1 margin in favor of the Terrapins, were the keys there. Saturday in Illinois saw them come from behind to win. They were able to dominate the paint and the fact the Illini went scoreless for seven minutes in the second half was key as well. As good as Maryland likely feels about itself right now, this is their third time playing on the road in the L4 games. They continue to be w/o two players in the rotation - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky.

Fran McCaffery is infamously one of the more ornery coaches in the country, so I'm assuming he blew his gasket following his team's loss in Evanston Saturday. Nothing went right for the Hawkeyes as they shot just 35.3% from the floor while allowing Northwestern to shoot 59.7%. There's virtually no way that they'll face such a lopsided shooting discrepancy again here. Remember, Iowa beat Purdue on this floor last week. I don't care what the standings say; Purdue is a better team than Maryland. The Hawkeyes shot 56.7% from the floor in that game. They average 88.7 PPG at home for the year. Peter Jok, who leads the Big 10 in scoring, is off a season-low four points in the last game. He'll lead the rebound tonight. 8* Iowa

8* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Last Thursday, Oral Roberts won for the 1st time in Summit League play, downing South Dakota State 94-88 as five-point home favorites. They followed that up by losing on Saturday, here at home, to IUPUI. The final score Saturday was 91-85 w/ ORU being a slight (3.5-point) favorite and it was the first time in 11 matchups the Golden Eagles lost to IUPUI. At first blush, it might seem curious to find a team w/ a 5-14 SU record favored yet again, but take note that this is actually the fourth consecutive game that Oral Roberts has been laying points. While just 1-2 ATS previously, the oddsmakers are really saying something about South Dakota w/ this line. What they're saying is the Coyotes aren't very good. Lay the short number.

Now South Dakota has been finding plenty of success here in Summit League play. In fact, they're 6-0 against the spread in league games thus far. But they've gotten to play the L3 games all at home. Saturday saw them overcome 37.3% shooting to defeat Ft. Wayne 66-63 as 2.5-point dogs. That score is VERY low-scoring by Summit League standards and the Coyotes are highly unlikely to prevail again tonight were they to shoot the ball so poorly. Oral Roberts comes in averaging 82.3 PPG at home and is off B2B games where they shot 50%. Saturday against Ft. Wayne, South Dakota got a career-best 30 points from Matt Mooney and enjoyed a 20-8 edge in FT's made. Those numbers likely won't repeat themselves here. The Coyotes also actually had to rally back from an eight-point halftime deficit in that game.

Oral Roberts will have to shore things up defensively as three of their previous four opponents have shot 52% or better from the floor. Fortunately, South Dakota is one of the weaker teams offensively in the Summit League. Also, this being a home game for Oral Roberts is huge. While they're an unsightly 0-9 SU on the road, they're 5-2 at home. South Dakota is just 3-5 SU on the road (9-1 at home). It should be noted that Oral Roberts' won loss record is a bit misleading as according to RPI, it's been one of the 10 toughest in the country. This is also a triple revenge spot as South Dakota managed to take both meetings last year and the second of the 2014-15 season. 8* Oral Roberts

10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): From a bettors' perspective, there are obviously two desirable outcomes when taking an underdog. One is they can simply cover the spread. The other is winning straight up. But don't tell any of that the few brave enough to call themselves "South Dakota State backers" this season. The Jackrabbits are an unfathomable 0-10 against the spread when getting points. Overall, they're 3-14 at the betting window, which is quite miserable, but that also means the record as a favorite is actually 3-4. Tonight, they find themselves in the "dreaded" underdog role again, but I'll step in and take them w/ what I feel is an inflated number.

The opponent here is IUPUI, who didn't need the points (+3.5) in pulling off a minor upset at Oral Roberts on Saturday. One of the big reasons I like South Dakota State in this spot is that they've been off since Thursday. That gives them two extra days to prepare here. Prior to beating Oral Roberts, IUPUI had dropped three straight Summit League contests, including an outright loss here at home exactly one week ago to Nebraska-Omaha. Saturday was a big win for the Jaguars as it snapped a 10-game losing streak to Oral Roberts. I cannot see them shooting the ball as well tonight as they did on Saturday when they made 54% of their total field goal attempts.

Neither of these teams are good defensively, so that's another reason why the points look so attractive. IUPUI allows 77.3 points per game while South Dakota State allows 77.9. This will be the most points that SDSU has gotten in any conference game thus far. I think it's important to note that their last three losses have all been by eight points or less. Having failed to cover six straight games, there's now some value on the Jackrabbits. Over the last two seasons, they were favored to beat IUPUI in all four meetings (went 3-1 SU/ATS), so being the underdog is new territory here. The added time off should pay dividends. Over the L3 seasons, they are 7-3 SU when playing w/ five or six days rest. IUPUI has allowed three of its last four opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, so expect SDSU to find success offensively tonight. 10* South Dakota State

8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are looking to rebound from yet another surprising MAAC loss here. Saturday saw them go down as seven-point road favorites, in overtime, to lowly Quinnipiac. They're on the road again Tuesday, but laying a shorter number against a Manhattan team that's off a close win over Rider here at home. The Jaspers were able to win Friday despite the absence of one key reserve and preseason MAAC second-teamer Rich Williams, who has yet to play at all this season. These conference rivals are obviously no strangers to one another having met five times over the previous two seasons. While Manhattan was able to pull an upset back in the 2015 MAAC Tourney, Iona has won all four regular season matchups. I'll lay the short number here.

The big reason Manhattan was able to win on Friday was that they got a career-best 35 points from Zane Waterman. While Waterman is the Jaspers' leading scorer, that kind of production probably cannot be counted upon for a second straight game. While nether team shot the ball well Friday, Manhattan was able to beat Rider due in large part to a +11 edge in FT's made. Also, it was their second straight game having to rally from a halftime deficit at home. Last Tuesday they were behind Niagara at the break before coming out and shooting a blistering 58.2% as a team in the 2H. Defense remains an issue for the Jaspers as they are giving up 78.6 points per game. They were also outrebounded by Rider on Friday.

Iona certainly is no stranger to playing on the road. In fact, they've played only FIVE home games thus far. Could fatigue be setting in? Possibly, but I don't think the spot tonight will be too much to overcome for the Gaels. They blew a late second half lead against Quinnipiac, who by the way also beat Manhattan already. It also didn't help that Iona shot only 7 of 23 from three-point range. Things really fell apart in OT, but considering the team still averages over 78 PPG for the season, scoring points should NOT be an issue tonight. With only two double digit scorers on its roster, Manhattan should have a tough time keeping up here. 8* Iona

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): Both MAC West rivals will be looking to rebound from back to back losses here, but the situations may not be as similar as you think. Whereas Toledo is off two straight losses on the road, BG just dropped a pair at home and by larger margins. Now the Falcons are the road team and it's tough to like their chances after watching them score just 52 and 53 points in those consecutive defeats. Toledo was actually a road favorite in both of its losses last week, at Western and Central Michigan, so it looks like the market may be short-changing them a bit for this home date. They swept Bowling Green last year. Lay the points.

Last Tuesday, Bowling Green was absolutely destroyed by Eastern Michigan, 81-53. Though for the 1st half that game was relatively close, the numbers still "tell the story" and that's they allowed EMU to shoot better than 58 percent from the floor (!) while making only 33% of their own attempts. It wasn't quite as ugly Saturday vs. Northern Illinois, but the Falcons still lost a pick 'em game at home by 17 pts. It's really hard to like their chances going out on the road where they're 1-6 SU this season. That one win did come in MAC play, but at Ball State, a significantly weaker opponent than what they'll face here. They've lost five straight times to their I-75 rival and last won here in Toledo back in 2011.

Defense was a major issue for Toledo last week, but the Rockets should simply have too much firepower tonight. Incredibly, Western Michigan shot 70% against the Rockets last Tuesday. No opponent will shoot that high of a percentage against them the rest of the year. Over the weekend, not once did they lead at Central Michigan, giving up 96 pts in the process. Falling behind 11-0 out of the gate really doomed them there. But this is a team that's still 7-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visiting teams by an impressive margin of 15.6 points per game. Given that BGSU just scored 52 and 53 points in its two games LW, I don't think defense will be an issue for Toledo tonight.  8* Toledo

8* UL Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a very tough spot for favored Georgia Southern. They are coming off a huge win at UL Lafayette, 81-76 as nine-point underdogs. The win leaves the Eagles as the Sun Belt's lone unbeaten in conference play (4-0). Tonight, they hit the road again (second road game in three days!) to play the only SBC team w/o a win in league play. That would be UL Monroe. But please do not make the mistake of discounting the Warhawks chances in this one (I'm certainly not!). While 0-4 SU in league play thus far, three of those losses have been quite close, including one they just suffered here at home in overtime to Georgia State on Saturday. Incredibly, that was their third OT loss already this season (two in conf play!). I think it's time for this team to break through w/ an upset. Take the points.

The Warhawks had not lost at home before Saturday. Had their shooting not gone ice cold in overtime, perhaps they would still be unbeaten. I have to admit that I am a little concerned about the fact the team is shooting just 37.9% from the floor in conference play. But the Georgia State game was the first one that took place at home. Here at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, the Warhawks are shooting better than 50% for the year including 45% from three-point range. So, I'll call for a big bounce back offensively here. Last season, they beat Ga Southern on this floor, 83-76, shooting 54.1%. Their home ATS record is 17-9 the L3 seasons.

Beating the team that's perceived as the Sun Belt's best (UL Lafayette) was huge for Georgia Southern. It was their fifth win in a row and seventh in the last eight games overall. The only loss during the stretch came by just two points at Hampton. However, the last three wins all have been by five points or less and they've given up an average of 79 points per game. That's a difficult, if not impossible, way to sustain success. They had to rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat LA Lafayette. It was a 51-point effort in the second half, something that's hard to come by. Two keys to the Eagles pulling that upset were a) LA Lafayette going only 3 of 18 from three-point range and b) GSU making 16 more free throws. 8* UL Monroe

8* Xavier (2:00 ET): This is obviously a very big game in the Big East w/ the two of the top teams in the conference colliding. As far as "who's hotter" coming into this afternoon's clash, there is no debate. Creighton is 17-1 SU this year (only loss to Villanova) and went the "tune up" route on Saturday, hosting non-DI Truman State, whom they annihilated 101-69. Meanwhile, Xavier had to go to Butler and lost a close one, 83-78 as four-point dogs. That followed another road loss, 79-54 to Villanova. That's a tough stretch for any team, so the fact the Musketeers went 0-2 is of no real concern to me. They're 9-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 18.9 points per game so far. Lay the points.

Creighton is certainly no slouch. The Blue Jays will likely find themsleves in the top 7 when the new polls come out later today. If you're a regular of mine, then you're already aware of my lack of regard for the pollsters. I do not think Creighton is a top seven team in the country. They are top 20 for sure, but not top 10. When searching for a "best win" this year, Wisconsin early in the year and Butler last week both come to mind. But those came in Omaha. Because they're 12-4 ATS overall, I feel they're a little overvalued right now. Remember that they are still w/o senior center Zach Hanson. The team is shooting remarkably well so far (53.5 FG%), but Xavier's defense will present the toughest matchup since Villanova. 

The Musketeers could very well drop out of the Top 25 due to the B2B losses, but IMO they are still Top 25 worthy. Before the last week, they'd lost only two games and one of them was at Baylor, who (for now) is #1 in the country. The other loss came by two at Colorado. While the final score says they lost by 25 at 'Nova, note that was a close game at halftime. They led Butler at the half (by six) Saturday before another second half defensive meltdown. The fact that the Musketeers allow just 61.2 PPG at home tells me we won't have that same issue this afternoon. Point guard Edward Sumner is listed as probable to play, so don't worry about that. I look for Xavier to snap a four-game ATS (2-2 SU) losing skid to Creighton here. 8* Xavier

10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): What has happened to Northern Iowa this year? Ben Jacobson's proud program is in a massive tailspin right now as they've lost seven in a row, the last five of which have come in Missouri Valley play (the others were to Iowa and North Carolina). Results at the betting window have been even worse as not only have the Panthers failed to cover the spread in all seven of those SU losses, they're also 3-12 ATS for the year! But help comes today in the form of MVC rival Drake, who UNI always seems to beat up on. Drake is 0-8 SU on the road this year and I think we're getting this matchup at a great price due to Drake having pulled a couple of surprising upsets (at home) in the last week. Lay the points.

Being favored has not treated Northern Iowa well this year as they're just 1-6 ATS in the role, losing outright five times. The most recent instance came Wednesday at Bradley as they fell 72-61 as two-point chalk. The Panthers shot the ball horrifically (33.9% for the game) while at the same time allowing the Braves to connect on 55.1% of their FG attempts. Such a wide shooting disparity is pretty rare and I'd be surprised if we saw anything like that againt for UNI the rest of the season. Luckily for them, this game is at home where they are allowing only 61.2 points per game for the season. Their own scoring average rises (to 69.7 PPG) here in Cedar Falls. Facing a team that's allowed an average of 83.4 PPG in conference play should remedy some of the offensive woes we've seen recently.

As mentioned earlier, Drake has pulled a couple of upsets over the past week. First, they beat Evansville 88-76 as 3.5-pt dogs. Then it was an 87-70 win over Indiana State (were +1) on Wednesday. But I think that most would still conclude that the Bulldogs are still one of the worst teams in the MVC. They have never had much success vs. Northern Iowa, going just 13-27 ATS L40 meetings, and the last two seasons have produced four double digit losses. They really benefited from Indiana State shooting only 32.4% on Wednesday. Even w/o Jeremy Morgan, I expect Northern Iowa to (finally!) get back on track in this one. 10* Northern Iowa

8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): The two teams involved here brought me very different results in their respective last games. UMass treated me to a nice outright win (as 7-pt home dogs) hosting Dayton. But Rhode Island fell victim to a very hot-shooting LaSalle team and lost outright (as 12-pt home favorites). That was the Rams's second straight outright loss as they'd previously lost at Dayton (as a one-point favorite). Thus, there should be a real "sense of urgency" w/ the Rhodies this afternoon. Before Thursday, they had not dropped a home game and I'll call for them to bounce back w/ a big double digit win here. Lay the points.

UMass has not fared particularly well in "true" road games thus far. They've won only two out of six and those wins were against Holy Cross and Georgia Southern. Prior to upsetting Dayton, the Minutemen were 0-3 in Atlantic 10 play, including losses at George Mason and VCU. They also lost at home to St. Bonaventure. That upset of Dayton was largely made possible by the Flyers shooting a horrid 31.7% from the floor. It certainly helped drawing them off their big win over Rhode Island. Holding a 34-27 halftime lead proved to be the difference. Also, Dayton has not won in Amherst since 2004. So while kudos should be given to the Minutemen for what they were able to pull off Wednesday (I did have them remember!), the fact is this really isn't that great of a team and they're probably in store for a letdown. Off their previous upset win (at Ga Southern), they would go on to lose the home game to St. Bonaventure their next time out. 

This is a really important game for Rhode Island, who cannot afford to lose a third straight conference game. Again, they were 8-0 SU at home before losing to LaSalle on Thursday. The Explorers couldn't miss as they shot a ridiculous 57.8% for the game compared to only 39.4% for the Rams. The 12-point loss was URI's largest of the season. I believe this team is better than it's 10-6 SU overall record as four of the losses have been by five points or less and another was to Duke. They did beat a very good Cincinnati team here at home earlier in the season. I can't believe that at home Rhode Island was -22 in FT attempts compared to LaSalle. UMass, who is below 30% for the year from three-point range, won't shoot the ball nearly as well. Three-point shooting is typically a difference maker for the Rams at home as they make 37.3% while allowing opponents to shoot 27.1%. They are +14.8 PPG at the Ryan Center. 8* Rhode Island

10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET): November and December were a "tale of two months" for Pepperdine. They didn't leave campus once in November and went a more than respectable 4-3 SU. December was a different story. After opening w/ a home date against Belmont (top team in the OVC), the Waves rode out 2016 with six consecutive road games. They lost all of them, only covering as 10-point dogs at Montana. They did beat Loyola Marymount in the first game of '17, but have since lost to San Diego and Pacific. And the news hasn't gotten any better in the last 24 hours as news broke they could continue to be short-handed w/ Knox Hellums and Ryan Keenan possibly out (undisclosed). But this will be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, traditionally a terrible spot. Take the points.

Pepperdine still has three double digits scorers, most notably LaMond Murray Jr, who is averaging 19.4 points per game. You can trace the team's downfall to the loss of PG Amadi Udenyi as they've won only once w/o him. But grad transfer Chris Reyes has managed to step up (15.2 PPG) and so has Jeremy Major, a career 1,000+ point scorer. The team's 38.1% shooting from three-point range currently stands as the best for an Waves team since '03. Unfortunately, opponents have not been missing many attempts from behind the arc, currently at 42%, one of the highest percentages allowed in the entire country. You have to figure that number will start to come down, if not only because it has to.

While Pepperdine lost a close one at Pacific on Thursday, Santa Clara won by an even slimmer margin at San Diego. It was 59-57 for the Broncos, who just missed out on covering as 2.5-pt faves. A made layup w/ just over one minute remaining ended up as the GW basket. Over the final eight minutes, the margin was never greater than three for either side. This just won't be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, it's also their third straight overall. They shot poorly last Saturday at Loyola Marymount (the only WCC team Pepperdine has beaten!) as in 36.8% overall and lost. Scoring only 59 points Thursday does not lead me to conclude that this is a team that should be laying points on the conference road. 10* Pepperdine

10* St. Joe's (12:30 ET): St. Joe's was the top ATS team in the country last year, at least among those that regularly play lined games. They finished 24-11 ATS (28-8 SU). Somewhat predictably, they've regressed in 2016-17, starting just 5-9 vs. the number after losing here at home to George Mason (75-67 as four-point chalk) back on Tuesday. Richmond is the next team to invade Hagan Arena and I do not anticipate this venture being a successful one for the Spiders. Sure, they come in riding a four-game win streak, including upsets of Dayton and George Washington on the road. But home games w/ Fordham and St. Bonaventure were certainly advantageous. The road team won both meetings last season, so it's naturally time for the host to return the favor.

St. Joe's has suffered a major blow w/ the loss of leading scorer Shavar Newkirk (20.5 PPG) for the rest of the season. But three players scored 16+ in the surprise loss to George Mason on Tuesday. I believe Newkirk's lost production can be made up for, specifically by James Demery and Lamarr Kimble. Also, here at home, the Hawks are typically potent offensively. So far, they are averaging 76.2 PPG here in Philly. While it's been a so-so start in the A-10 (just 2-2 SU), they did beat GW here. In the loss to George Mason, they led at halftime and into the second half. It was rare in that they allowed the opponent to shoot 50% while only shooting 42.2% themselves, including an awful 5 of 21 from theee-point range. It also didn't help that they were outscored by eight, the difference in the game, from the FT line. I guarantee we won't be seeing a repeat of those numbers here this afternoon. 

Richmond is unbeaten in A-10 play and certainly playing well. They've been between 77 and 82 points in each of their four league wins, but still only outscored those teams by 8.5 PPG, even after the 78-61 win over St. Bonaventure earlier in the week. This is the first EVER - as in program history - that they have started 4-0 SU in A-10 play. However, they actually trailed the Bonnies at halftime before exploding for 51 pts in the final 20 minutes. 10* St. Joe's

8* Virginia (12:00 ET): I routinely clown on the polls only because they are often a very poor guide for evaluating the top teams. Case in point; my play earlier this week against #1 Baylor, who no reasonable mind truly believed was the best team in the country. Even though the Bears were unbeaten, they were underdogs in Morgantown and subsequently got clobbered 89-68 by WVU. Here, it's a similar situation, only in reverse. Virginia is currently ranked #19, but the idea that there are 18 teams better than Tony Bennett's Hoos is just ludicrous. No doubt Clemson will be highly motivated here, at home and looking to break a three-game losing streak. But this number is just way too short. Lay the points.

Virginia was on its own losing streak (two games) before routing Wake Forest on Sunday, 79-62 as 12-pt chalk. The Cavs shot 49.1% overall from the floor, including a blistering 9 of 19 from three-point range. Of course, there was also their trademark defense, which held Wake to 40.4% overall and 6 of 21 from three-point range. In case you were unaware, UVA ranks 4th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allows just 52.1 points per game, fewest in the country. In their two recent losses, they gave up more than that, including an uncharacteristic 88 in their last road game, at Pitt. But I view that as "blip" on the radar, nothing more. The Cavs also have the edge here in that they've been off for five days while Clemson is playing for the second time in three days. The last time the Hoos had this much time off, they won their next game by 40 points! 

Clemson is 7-1 SU in Death Valley where the students are probably still partying over last Monday's College Football Playoff. The Tigers allow just 64.1 PPG at home, but the L3 games have seen them allow more than that YTD average (79.7). That includes an 89-86 home loss to North Carolina. Over the last week, they've lost at both Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. They lost by double digits, as 10-pt favorites, Thursday in Atlanta (at Ga Tech). Clemson fans got to cheer for one big win this week; history will not repeat itself here.  8* Virginia

8* Yale (8:00 ET): The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Yale has yet to play an Ivy League game, but they come into 2017 as the co-favorite to win the conference, along w/ Princeton. Penn just played Princeton on Saturday and I faded the Quakers in that spot. Sure enough, they failed to cover as 8.5 pt dogs (lost 61-52). While they weren't blown out and close to covering, I still see value in going against the Quakers again tonight. It's telling that they still lost to Princeton despite holding the short-handed Tigers to just 34.7% shooting from the field. It's tempting to credit the Penn defense for some of the past shooting percentages we've seen from opponents, but really I don't think it's sustainable. Yale comes in shooting at a nice 46.9% clip for the season. Take the points.

Now, clearly, things won't be as easy for Yale as they were their last time out. On Saturday, they took on Mitchell College and won 102-46, thanks to shooting 61.5% for the game. The Bulldogs have not played a ton of lined games this year, but three of their five SU losses this year have come at the expense of Virginia, Pitt and Temple, all of those on the road. They did cover at Pitt (lost by only 5) and then they lost by only 6 at Temple. So, it's not as if they haven't been challenged. They've also gone to Washington this year and won. So far, they have managed to outscore opponents by 8.4 points per game while ranking 15th nationally in assists per game (17.8) and shooting 39.2% from three-point range. Six players average at least nine points per game w/ five of them shooting above 40% from behind the arc. 

  One thing is for certain and that's Yale has had Penn's number through the years. They've beaten the Quakers eight straight times (four season sweeps) and done so by an average of greater than 15 points per game. The series history only makes this line seem more curious. Offensively, Penn continues to struggle as they average only 66.9 PPG, which is 301st. They are also only 261st in rebounds per game. One has to think if their opponents start shooting better, it could be a long year for the Quakers. Yale is more than capable of shooting well. 8* Yale

8* Morehead State (7:00 ET): It can't be understated what a big game this is for Morehead State as they get the best team in the Ohio Valley in their gym. At home is where all six of the Eagles victories have come this year (they're 0-8 off-campus) and they are averaging a whopping 91.4 points per game here. They've experienced a lot of close losses this year (two in overtime), but come into tonight's showdown off B2B wins over Eastern Illinois and SIU Edwardsville. Belmont is 3-0 SU already in OVC play and has won eight of nine overall. But this is the start of a tough stretch for them as they'll be playing two road games in the next three days. I "smell an upset" brewing tonight down in Kentucky. Take the points.

Morehead State actually needed to rally from a slight halftime deficit to get by SIU Edwardsville in their last game. But it wound up being a 13-pt victory thanks to controlling the paint (30-22 edge in pts) and points off turnovers (19 off 22). This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it's not an embellishment to say this will likely be the biggest regular season game of the year on campus. Home court advantage has proven vital in past meetings between these two schools w/ the host team taking seven of nine. That includes both last year. Over the L2 seasons, it's been nothing but close games between the two w/ all four meetings decided by six points or less and three decided by two points or less. Again, the home team has won every time.

Morehead State has lost all eight games in which it has been an underdog this season, but only one of those was here at home. That was to an East Tennessee State side that looks like it may win the SoCon. Meanwhile, Belmont has failed to cover the L2 times it has been road chalk, those games taking place at WI-Milwaukee (won by 6) and Austin Peay (won by 5). Something of concern for the Bruins is that they shoot just 25.7% from three-point range on the road. That will make it difficult to keep up w/ the high scoring Eagles, who shoot over 37% from long range overall. Until they scored 31 pts over the final 10 minutes Saturday vs. SE Missouri  State, Belmont was actually trailing at home. 8* Morehead State

10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): The Rams, fairly quietly, have found themselves on the fringes of the Top 25 for most of this year. However, in the latest poll (released earlier this week), they didn't even receive a single vote. That's probably due to the fact that last Friday saw them drop a home game to fellow A-10 power Dayton, 67-64. But, as I always harp on, the polls should not really be used as any reliable guide to betting College Hoops (see Baylor-WVU). URI is still a top 35 team country in my estimation (Lunardi has them in the field of 68, FWIW), which is a lot better than tonight's opponent, LaSalle, a team I've had no problem fading so far this season. I anticipate the Explorers' lack of defense will cost them another A-10 affair tonight. Lay the points.

Ironically, the last time I played against LaSalle, it was a poor effort at the offensive end that cost them. On December 30th, they were held to a season-low 55 points on 36% shooting as they lost at Dayton, 66-55. I'd previously played against them in a visit to Georgetown and there they allowed 93 pts in another double digit road loss. Defense has been the primary concern for the Explorers, even though they've responded w/ B2B wins since losing to Dayton. In the last game, as 11.5-pt home faves, they still allowed 81 points in a narrow win over Duquense. Their other win was against St. Louis. Safe to say, that those two wins came against two of the bottom three in the A-10 (along w/ Fordham). Not only is LaSalle allowing its opponents to shoot 47.3% from the floor overall, including 40% from three-point range, but they are giving up a ghastly 86.5 PPG away from home as well!

Rhode Island has dominated LaSalle the last two seasons, winning all four matchups. Three of the wins have been by double digits. At home this year, the Rams are unbeaten (8-0!), winning by an average margin 18.1 PPG. Defensively, they are stout, holding teams to just 64.2 PPG overall. Off the loss to Dayton, I expect this team to be fired up to take the floor tonight. They turned the ball over 17 times vs. Dayton, costing them a game they led for most of the first 28 minutes. This is also the best offensive team in terms of points per possession in the A-10. 10* Rhode Island

10* Southern Illinois (8:00 ET): I'm always a bit cautious when it comes to taking a team off an upset victory. Here, Southern Illinois did just go on the road and beat Missouri State 75-67 - as 9-pt underdogs - on Saturday. But the Salukis are returning to Carbondale for tonight's tilt w/ in-state rival Illinois State. Taking points again, I believe they're a strong value. This is ISU's second consecutive road game as they too are off a win; 77-58 at Indiana State. But make no mistake about it; Larry Bird wasn't playing for the Sycamores on Saturday. Illinois State may still be unbeaten in MVC play (4-0 SU), but they have a giant lookahead to conference heavyweight Wichita State (whom they get at home) on Saturday. Take the points here.

Interestingly enough, Southern Illinois beat Missouri State by a wider margin on the road than Illinois State did at home. Missouri State is a "middle of the road" team in the MVC, so they can serve as somewhat of a good barometer. Illinois State played them first, winning 74-71 (as eight-point favorites) at home, but needed overtime. That's one of only two games out of the last nine that the Redbirds have failed to cover. Three days later saw SIU go to Missouri State and record an upset. That was the Salukis' third straight win, so they come in hot as well. What was most impressive about Southern Illinois' performance on Saturday is that they took the lead five minutes into the game and never relinquished it.

Now Illinois State was definitely impressive Saturday as well. Led by a career-best 31 pts from MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds routed Indiana State w/ a dominant first half performance (led 47-24 at the break). But I wouldn't look for them to go 13 of 25 from three-point range again here. While the Redbirds are ninth nationally in field goal percentage defense, they will have to contend w/ a SIU team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home. The Salukis are 8-2 SU in Carbondale so far, covering five of their six lined games here. They've also done their own strong job on the defensive end, particularly at converting opponents' turnovers into points. In seven straight games, they've scored at least 12 pts off TO's! 10* Southern Illinois

8* Massachusetts (7:00 ET): Dayton is a team some might consider worthy of Top 25 consideration as they have only three losses, all of them by four points or less. But I believe them to be a tad bit overvalued for tonight's venture into UMass. The Flyers are indeed "flying high" off five straight victories, the last four of which have also resulted in covers. Friday saw them down a good Rhode Island team, 67-64, as a short home dog. But this is just their third "true" road game so far and UMass will be a lot tougher than St. Bonaventure was at the start of the month. UMass will also be a desperate bunch as they've lost three straight, the last two coming on the road to George Mason and VCU. Take the points.

Prior to this three-game losing skid that they're currently on, UMass had been playing pretty well. They were 10-3 SU going into the final game of 2016, which wound up being an outright home loss to St. Bonaventure. The Minutemen were two-point favorites there and have since lost as underdogs at George Mason (86-81) and VCU (81-64). Dayton signifies a drop in class from VCU and they're getting them in Amherst, so this should be an easier game for the Minutemen. It also shapes up almost as a "must-win" since this weekend sees them traveling to Rhode Island, another game where they'll be an underdog. I'm sure the upperclassmen remember LY's lone meeting w/ Dayton, a road game which resulted in a 30-point loss. Revenge!

Dayton shot "lights out" in that lone meeting last season, finishing at 56% from the field, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. I certainly would not expect any kind of repeat of those numbers tonight. The Flyers were kind to me back on 12.30, beating LaSalle 66-55, ironically "doing it w/ defense" against an Explorers team that is really bad defensively. Since then, they've ripped St. Bonaventure for 90 points and then came the three-point win over Rhode Island. But consider they trailed the Rhodies for the first 32 minutes of that contest. While Dayton may still unbeaten in A-10 play, UMass is 4-2 ATS as a underdog this season. 8* Massachusetts

8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Baylor may be unbeaten and the new "#1" in the country. Kansas may be the standard-bearer of excellence in the conference. But, for my money, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 this year and I'm on 'em again Tuesday night in Morgantown. Though they failed to cover Saturday (by one-half point) here against TCU, it was still a nice bounce back from Bob Huggins' Mountaineers after suffering just their second loss of the season the game previous (at Texas Tech). As you can tell, the oddsmakers have little respect for the pollsters here as they've installed the supposed "#1 team in the country" as an underdog. They are correct in doing so. Lay the points.

Here at home, WVU is 9-0 SU this season (33-5 SU L38), winning by an average margin of 36.1 points per game. They only beat TCU by 12 on Saturday, but led the entire way (by 11 at half). What cost them the cover was a second half swoon where the Horned Frogs went from 13 down to tie the game. But, in the end, Huggins will take it. His trademark press forced TCU into a season-high in turnovers (18), which is the norm for WVU opponents. Last year, in a home and home sweep of Baylor, the Mountaineers surprisingly only forced 24 turnovers in the two games. But they held the Bears to 37% shooting and won both games by 11 points anyway.

I don't think anybody - besides the pollsters - really thinks Baylor is the top team in America. In fact, they are not even in my top five. Remember, coming into the year, they were picked to finish fifth - in the Big 12 - by those who supposedly know the conference. Their ascension from being unranked to #1 in the polls is impressive, but also greatly aided by the fact they've played just one "true" road game thus far, that being at Oklahoma, who is the weakest team in the league. They did win in Norman by 16, but since then it's been a pair of narrow victories, by two over Iowa State and by four vs. Oklahoma State, both at home. Kansas came into Morgantown ranked #1 in the country last year and lost. Also, WVU just destroyed the same Oklahoma State team - by 17 - in Stillwater. 8* West Virginia

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): At first glance, Eastern Michigan hardly seems like an ideal candidate to lay points with, even a short number like this one, on the road. The Eagles are just 2-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti this season and just dropped a game there, as 7.5-pt favorites, to Buffalo on Saturday. But here they'll be faced w/ a team outside of the top 200 nationally and that's Bowling Green. The Falcons seem to be flying high off an upset of Ball State (in Muncie) on Saturday, but tonight promises to be a crash landing of sorts. Eastern Michigan will have revenge on its mind for losing LY in Ypsilanti - as 8.5-pt chalk - to the Falcons. That was a game where they dug too large a hole early (trailed by 11 at the half) to climb out of.

Prior to the loss Sunday, EMU had won three straight, all by 22 points or greater. Granted, all those games were at home. But they've actually already covered as road chalk once this year, laying a much bigger number in fact, at Detroit. As a favorite, the Eagles are 4-1 ATS this season and won 20 of 27 straight up the L3 seasons. So what went wrong Saturday? Well, for starters, they shot the ball poorly (only 36.8%). For the season, this is a team connecting at above a 45% clip. The Eagles did lead for a good portion of the game Saturday before succumbing to a late Buffalo run. It also didn't help that as the home team, EMU attempted less FT's than did Buffalo. I expect the Eagles to play better tonight. After all, this is a top 25 scoring offense in the country at 83.8 PPG.

Bowling Green pulled the upset at Ball State on Saturday as they were able to rally from a halftime deficit. Attempting 11 more free throws certainly helped. That kind of margin is certainly unusual for the road team. Also, Ball State was an abysmal 4 of 25 from three-point range. The Falcons' defense does do a good job at turning their opponents over, but EMU won't be shooting anywhere near that poorly here tonight. In fact, if anything, it will be the Eagles' trademark 2-3 zone that should "rule the day" defensively. Consider that Eastern Michigan was a nine-point favorite AT Detroit while BGSU was asked to lay the same number here at home. Not sure why the linesmakers' discrepancy has grown so much tighter in less than a month, but take advantage and lay the very short number. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): This is a triple revenge spot for Ga Southern, who lost three times (including Sun Belt tourney) to South Alabama last year. Plus, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot for USA, who I would rate as the worst overall team in the league. That combination of factors has me laying the points Monday night. Ga Southern has won five of its last six, the only loss coming at Winthrop (a game they were NOT expected to win) by two points.  Meanwhile, South Alabama is coming off B2B one-point games, the last being a 78-77 loss to Georgia State on Saturday that will prove difficult to get over.

While South Alabama should end up residing at the bottom of the Sun Belt, Ga Southern should end up being close to the top. Right now, I'd consider them third in the pecking order, behind only UL Lafayette and TX-Arlington. Saturday saw them down Troy here at home, 86-82, as 5.5-pt favorites. That failure to cover, I believe, has created some value for this matchup. It's certainly not a bad situation as this will be the Eagles' fourth consecutive home game. Having to go on the road for two next weekend (UL Lafayette, UL Monroe), I'd say it's pretty imperative for the Eagles to take care of business here. Though they failed to cover against Troy, they did lead the entire second half, typically by more than what the oddsmakers were asking for. They did so despite going only 7 of 29 from three-point range. By the way, in five home games so far, the Eagles are averaging 90.8 points per game!

South Alabama really let one get away on Saturday as they allowed Georgia State to score the game's final eight points en route to coming out on the losing end, 78-77. That result is a "bitter pill to swallow" and like I said earlier, will be difficult to get over. Of course, GSU won't be lacking for motivation here as LY's three losses to USA all came by six points or fewer. The Eagles shot poorly, as in below 37% overall, in all three games. This year's squad is much improved though and is 17-5 SU L22 Sun Belt home games. South Alabama has just two road wins thus far (lost at Stetson), one of them coming against a terrible Southern Miss team. Other than at Minnesota, Ga Southern really hasn't played a bad game this year as three of their six losses have been by three points or less. This is only their third game in the last 19 days (rested!) and I like how they defend the three-point line (opponents shooting only 30.3% against them at home). USA is shooting less than 30% from behind the arc for the year. 8* Georgia Southern

8* Illinois-Chicago (5:00 ET): This would be a classic letdown spot for favored Oakland, playing its second road game in three days and off an outright upset of fellow Horizon heavyweight Valparaiso. Make no mistake about; the Golden Grizzlies have been an incredibly successful money-maker at the betting window, covering over two-thirds of their games the L3 seasons, including the last four. But this is a pretty big number to be caught laying given the circumstances. UIC is playing its sixth straight home game and had no issue w/ Detroit on Friday, winning and covering that game 78-64 as seven-point favorites. Take the points.

Oakland can now claim to be the Horizon League favorite due to the win at Valpo. The key was taking what was a four-point halftime lead and stretching it to 15 just 3:30 into the second half. From that point forward, Valpo never got closer than five. But the Golden Grizzlies are now dealing with the burden of having to win by a certain margin. Granted, they've eclipsed it three straight times, but playing the second time on the road in three days is tough regardless of who you are and what conference you play in. Yes, this team can score in bunches and is 24-9 ATS its L33 road games. But there's a juncture when we reach a "tipping point," and for Oakland today is that time. Will they really win a fourth straight league game by double digits? 

UIC has some "momentum" (hate that word!) after shooting a blistering 57.8% from the floor in the 78-64 win over Detroit. Will the Flames match that percentage here? Not likely, but they do lead all Horizon League teams w/ a 47.2 field goal percentage. Thus, I think they can keep pace w/ the high powered Golden Grizzlies. UIC's home split, in terms of points scored vs. allowed, is roughly the same as Oakland's on the road. Coming off a conference win, the Flames are 8-1 ATS the L3 seasons. While they've lost the last four regular season matchups to Oakland, the Flames did upset them in the 2015 Conference Tourney. I just think that this line is too high. 8* Illinois-Chicago

10* Princeton (7:00 ET): Exams may be over with in the Ivy League, but for Penn, there's perhaps a greater challenge in front of them. That would be tonight's conference opener, which calls for a trip to league favorite Princeton. It's believed to be a "two-horse race" in the Ivy this year (Princeton and Yale), so pretty much disregard the fact that both of these schools come in riding three-game win streaks. I was a bit surprised to find that Penn has had plenty of ATS success at Princeton's expense through the years (25-12 ATS L37 meetings, including 15-4 on the road). Both of LY's matchups were decided by two points or less (Princeton won both). But I don't like the Quakers getting such a short number this time around.

Princeton ended it's non-conference slate on New Year's Eve by destroying Cal Poly 81-52. (My goodness, the Big West is bad!). That was the Tigers' second blowout win in a row at home as they had handled Hampton 77-49 just three days earlier (allowed only 16 second half points!). Including those victories, they are now outscoring visiting teams by 27.8 points per game at home this year. It was the offense that carried Princeton against Cal Poly as they shot a ridiculous 56% from the field. Will they match that here? Probably not, but I don't think they have to. Not w/ a defense that has held those last two opponents to just 34.1 and 36.4% respectively. I don't see Penn having much offensive success in this game. 

Penn was able to beat Fairfield on 12.30 despite starting the game 0 for 11 from three-point range! Of course, it helped that Fairfield shot a miserable 33% for the entire game themselves. The Quakers trailed at the half that last game, but were really lucky that Fairfield was an absolutely atrocious 13 of 40 on two-point attempts. Really, the Quakers have consistently benefited from awful shooting from their opponents this season. That won't happen here. This should be a double digit spread. 10* Princeton

10* Louisiana Tech (7:00 ET): Taking inventory of Conference USA, you can expect Louisiana Tech to finish at or near the top of the league this year while UT-San Antonio should reside at the bottom. There's a pretty sizable gap between the top and bottom of this large league, one that's not being accounted enough for by the linesmakers tonight in Ruston. La Tech enters this game having won five of six w/ their lone loss coming by a single point to Fla Gulf Coast (remember them?). Meanwhile, UTSA is off an awful loss to fellow C-USA lightweight Southern Miss (77-59 as 2-pt road chalk). That same Southern Miss team lost to La Tech by 24 at home the game previous. Lay the points here in what should be an absolute blowout. 

La Tech will be the top challenger to Middle Tennessee this year for league bragging rights. They don't play the Blue Raiders until the end of the month, so between now and then there's a chance to rack up a ton of victories. The Bulldogs' last four victories have all come by at least 20 points. They've dominated opponents here in Ruston, going 9-1 SU while winning by an average margin of 23.8 points per game. Again, that one loss came by a single point. Did I mention they'll be hosting a team that's 0-9 SU away from home and averaging only 62.4 PPG in such affairs? Oh, I hadn't? Well, that's the case. The average MOV in La Tech's 4-0 sweep of UTSA the L2 season has been 11.25 PPG. But the discrepancy between the two schools is as great as it's ever been right now.

That winless record away from home didn't stop the oddsmakers from favoring UTSA at Southern Miss (who is admittedly terrible) on Thursday. I can't overstate what a bad loss that was for the Roadrunners, however. Southern Miss had lost its previous nine games and was down eight at halftime. But in the second half UTSA was outscored by 26! Now they have to face a team that is shooting 51% for the year at home and has held three straight opponents around 33% shooting overall! La Tech's 64-44 beatdown over UTEP is indicative of what to expect here, only the beatdown should be more severe. UTEP was held to just 19 second half points. 10* Louisiana Tech

8* West Virginia (1:00 ET): Not all 12-2 teams are "created equal" and that's certainly the case in this Big 12 matchup Saturday afternoon. West Virginia may have been stunned Tuesday night in Lubbock (lost 77-76 to Texas Tech), but that didn't change my view that they are one of the top teams in the country. They came into the week underrated by the pollsters (only 7th??) and should bounce back in a major way here in Morgantown. The hype will say TCU is "much improved" in 2017, but I still remember the Horned Frogs losing every Big 12 road game LY. They were 0-3 overall vs. WVU in 2015-16, including a 31-point loss in Morgantown. This will be only TCU's third "true" road game of this season. Lay the points.

West Virginia's two losses this year have come by a combined five points. Tuesday's loss to Texas Tech, a back and forth affair the whole way, went to overtime. The issue was they allowed the Red Raiders to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 7 of 13 from three-point range. The trademark pressure we're accustomed to seeing from the Mountaineers also failed to produce the requisite number of turnovers (13). Plus, it didn't help that they went only 13 of 24 from the FT line in a one-point loss. A return to Morgantown would seem to be "just what the doctor ordered" though. They're 8-0 SU in home games so far, winning by an incredible margin of 39.1 points per game! Don't be worried about the number either as WVU is 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons laying 12.5 or more points here on their home floor.

TCU is 0-9 SU (2-7 ATS) as WVU's conference rival including the three losses (by a combined 59 pts) last season. Clearly, HC Jamie Dixon was a great hire as is evident by him getting Jaylen Fisher (highest rated signee EVER for the program!) and completely turning over the roster in less than one year's time. But you have to be concerned about such a young team going into this environment. Not only have the Horned Frogs turned the ball over a total of 31 times the L2 games, this will clearly be the most hostile environment they've stumbled into yet. They've already lost at SMU by double digits. Granted, the only other loss was to Kansas (no shame there), but it is this game that shapes up as the young team's toughest to date. 8* West Virginia

8* Ohio (9:00 ET): We have a Mid-American Conference matchup Friday night in Athens. Some may be "scratching their heads" over the fact that one team is a notable favorite over the other in a seemingly even matchup. But not I. The favorite here (Ohio) has lost only three times all season, two of those coming by four points or less. They are a dominant 8-0 SU here in Athens, winning by an average margin of 18.3 points per game. In comes a Kent team that comes off a "flashy" (pun intended!) 100-pt effort in its last game and an outright upset of Texas (on the road) before that. But let us not forget that this team also lost at Oregon State as well. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it will be a big deal to the faithful in Athens w/ the students having just returned from winter break. Lay the points.  

Ohio is in off a dominant performance on Tuesday as the blew out Western Michigan, 89-58 as 10-point home favorites. The Bobcats continued their sharp shooting from three-point range by going 16 of 31 from behind the arc. This was one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country LY (23rd) and they hold that same exact same rating nationally coming into tonight's contest. Defensively, they are much improved from a year ago and just held WMU to 33% shooting. For the season, they are allowing only 65.5 PPG (top 60) and are tops among MAC schools by holding opponents to just 39.6% shooting overall. Offensively, they are led by reigning MAC Player of the Year Antonio Campbell, but have three other double digit scorers as well. The Bobcats are 32-10 SU under third year HC Saul Phillips here at home. 

Kent, as I mentioned, scored 100 pts in its last game. That was due to them setting a MAC record by going 31 of 31 from the free throw line. They can't count on doing that again, especially on the road. It was free throws that took a game that was tied w/ just over 13 minutes to go and made it a comfortable win for the Golden Flashes. They lost LY here in Athens by 11, shooting only 38.6% from the floor. I would not expect shooting to improve much here as the team is last in the conference in FG% (42.3) and 11th from 3-pt range (31.9%). Kent also struggles defending the arc, letting opponents hit over 35%. For the second year in a row, I like Ohio to down their MAC East rival in Friday night home game on ESPNU. 8* Ohio

8* Hofstra (7:00 ET): This is an opportunity to use each team's most recent result to our benefit. Visiting James Madison comes in off a surprisingly one-sided win over Towson, 64-44, where they were four-point home underdogs. It was just the fourth win of the year for the Dukes. Meanwhile, host Hofstra is off a home loss to William & Mary, 95-93, where they were 4.5-point favorites. I don't see the Pride dropping B2B home games in CAA play, nor can I see JMU pulling consecutive upsets. The number here is relatively short, thus I'll lay it as there's a revenge angle brewing in this Colonial battle as well.

Hofstra has played an incredible amount of close games so far, in fact, six have been decided by four points or less. That includes the last two times we've seen them. Saturday at Delaware, they came out on the winning end, 58-56, thanks to a couple of made free throws in the final minute. That was not a pretty offensive game from either side, but Hofstra still led most of the way. There was a ton more offense Monday night when they hosted William & Mary and the game went into overtime. Unfortunately for the Pride, the Tribe hit a buzzer-beater in overtime (from NBA 3-pt range) to win there, 95-93. It was just the second loss in six home games for Hofstra thus far. 

Despite the heartbreaking loss earlier in the week, I see Hofstra responding w/ a big win tonight. As alluded to earlier, the team will not be lacking for motivation. They have lost four straight regular season meetings to James Madison, but did beat them in the 2015 CAA Tournament. Both of last year's games went into overtime. This is probably the weakest team JMU has brought to Hempstead in some time as the Dukes are just 4-11 SU, including 2-7 ATS as an underdog, 1-5 on the road. This will be their first road game since a double digit loss on December 17th at Appalachian State. They'll have to deal w/ a Hofstra team averaging 85.2 PPG at home this year. So far in CAA play, we've seen JMU shoot better than 55% against Drexel and hold Towson to 32% shooting. I seriously doubt that they'll be so fortunate to hit either of those percentages tonight being that this is a roadie. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra

10* The Citadel (7:00 ET): Let's not kid ourselves. The Citadel is not a very good basketball team. But the Bulldogs have enough going for them right now (off an outright win!) and getting enough points to make this Southern Conference matchup w/ East Tenn State more interesting than expected. Remember, I'm off a big win in the SoCon earlier in the week as UNC Greensboro upset league favorite Chattanooga. While The Citadel is more than likely to end up finishing at the bottom of the league by season's end, they've already proven they can hang by going 3-0 ATS against conference opponents thus far. That includes an upset of Wofford (as 15-point dogs), on the road, their last time out. Take the points here.

East Tennessee State is considered by many to be the second best team in the SoCon. However, the Buccaneers have played only one conference foe to date and that was VMI, the weakest of the lot. Predictably, that one went quite well for them as they romped to a 102-75 victory. We can probably expect a ton of points in this game (more on that in a moment), so the question remains: can ETSU score enough to cover this large of a spread? I think not, at least out on the road. Averaging 80.6 PPG is impressive, but as you're about to see, that likely won't be nearly enough to get the job done here. This team has only one double digit scorer (TJ Cromer) and another player (Julian Walters) just left the program last week.

The Citadel both averages and allows 100+ PPG. I'm not making this up. They play at - by far - the fastest tempo of any team in the country. While just 8-8 SU overall, they are 6-2 SU at home. Now the upset of Wofford did require OT, but it was a game they led by nine at halftime and by seven in the extra period. As an underdog this season, the Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS. They have double revenge from LY as well and in one of the losses to ETSU (at home!), they shot only 27.9% from the floor and scored just 51 points, easily a season-low. I'm sure the players remember that one. This year's group has made at least 10 three-pointers in 14 of 16 games and 15+ seven different times. They've had seven games w/ multiple 20+ pt scorers. ETSU is just 2-2 SU this year away from Johnson City. 10* The Citadel

10* Oregon State (11:00 ET): The Pac 12 is a fairly "top-heavy" league this year w/ UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and even Cal likely to "duke it out" for the top spot. But after that, the prognosis looks rather bleak for the rest of the lot, including a USC team that has just one loss. Clearly, the two worst teams in the conference are Oregon State and Washington State, who will matchup tonight in The Palouse. While this has been an incredibly miserable season thus far for OSU, one that has seen them lose their best player (Tres Tinkle) for an indefinite period of time, I still have them rated slightly above Wazzu. Thus, even after factoring in the home court advantage, this looks like a really solid value to me. Take the points.

Washington State comes in off a big upset over rival Washington, 79-74, as 12.5-pt underdogs in Seattle. That snapped a 17-game Pac 12 losing streak as they closed the game on a stunning 12-3 run after trailing almost the whole way. With a far more appealing home date looming against Oregon on Saturday (one of those aforementioned conference heavyweights), tonight's game all of a sudden shapes up to me a pretty classic 'sandwich spot.' Yes, the Cougs have triple revenge from the last two years, including a 69-49 loss in Corvallis LY in what was the teams' only meeting. But it's hard to endorse WSU as chalk seeing as the role finds them at just 1-5 ATS. That even includes a non-cover here at home against Sacramento State on 12.21. The team is on its longest win streak of the season (three games), but all three wins were by eight points or less.

Meanwhile, it has not been an ideal start to Pac 12 play for Oregon State. They drew a couple of tough assignments last week, playing both USC and UCLA. Still, they covered both and actually come into tonight riding a 3-game ATS win streak. That includes an upset of a Kent State team that just went to Texas and won. As far as "true" road games go, the Beavers may be winless, but this is still quite the generous number. Note that OSU's matchup zone defense forced UCLA into its worst shooting night of the season (44.1%). The game was actually tied in the second half. Certainly then, the Beavers can keep Wazzu in check, right? 10* Oregon State

8* Nebraska-Omaha (8:00 ET): We head to the Summit League for this play where the conference favorite (Ft. Wayne) is laying points on the road. IPFW was one of the top ATS teams in the country last year, going 21-8 at the betting window. In fact, no other team in the country that played at least seven lined games covered at a better rate! This year, predictably, has seen the oddsmakers get some of their money back. IPFW (Ft. Wayne) is just 5-5 ATS, though they do hold an outright win at Indiana. I played against them (successfully) early in the year when they went to Illinois State (as 6.5-pt underdogs) and lost 75-57. That brings me to my main point, which is that the Mastadons are only 1-4 ATS this season away from home (one win was Indiana), thus I don't like them as road chalk. That 42-22 overall ATS record the L3 seasons is due to regress. Take the points.

Nebraska-Omaha happens to be leaving its (likely few) backers pretty broke. The Mavericks are returning home from an 0-3 SU/ATS road trip and last covered a game all the way back on December 3rd, at Iowa. That's an 0-6 ATS mark L6 lined games, if you're keeping score, though they did win SU three times during that span including both home games. This will only be the FIFTH home game this year for the team. Though already 0-2 in Summit League play, this will be the first conference home game. They have a bit of revenge on their minds from LY when they suffered two painful losses at the hands of IPFW, the first coming here in overtime, 106-101 as 8.5-pt chalk. The rematch was another high-scoring affair, 94-90, w/ FT shooting being the difference.

Ft. Wayne has been a road favorite two times before this season and both times they failed to cover. The first was at Austin Peay and the second was at Detroit. This team's main problem when favored is they simply give up too many points. They are allowing 85.5 PPG away from home. You simply can't always outscore teams. The Mastadons found that out in the Summit League opener when they lost outright to a bad Western Illinois team 93-91 as 14.5-pt faves at home. They bounced back w/ a 102-91 win over Oral Roberts on New Year's Eve, but that's still 90 PPG allowed over the L3 contests! Back home, Omaha should shoot the ball better than they have the L2 games and an upset is likely. 8* Nebraska-Omaha

10* West Virginia (9:15 ET): I'm going to keep rolling w/ Bob Huggins' Mountaineers, who just might be the best team in the country right now. I had them on Friday when they went to Stillwater and dismantled Oklahoma State 92-75 as a short road favorite. I also took them the previous Friday as they rolled past an overmatched Northern Kentucky side, 92-61 as 26-pt chalk. For a second straight time, we find the team on the road and laying a short number against a Big 12 opponent they have dominated of late. Once again, the number is simply not high enough as Texas Tech's 11-2 SU record is nowhere close to as impressive as WVU's 12-1 SU mark. Kansas entered the year as the favorite and Baylor is still unbeaten. But the Mountaineers just might be the best team in the Big 12, if not the country.

I've run through the exploits of this WVU team before, but allow me to do it again. HC Huggins can go as many as 13 deep w/ this roster. The pressure defense that he employs will continue to be among the best at forcing turnovers nationally. They forced 19 TO's at Oklahoma State and pretty much led that game by double digits throughout. Like OSU, the Mounties have had Texas Tech's number in the past, going 4-0 SU/ATS against them since joining the Big 12. It was close here in Lubbock LY, but then it was a 90-68 beatdown in Morgantown. Again, I'm not worried about this team going on the road as they've already won at Virginia, 66-57. The latest polls have WVU at #7. That's just too low. 

Texas Tech, meanwhile, is nowhere near as good as its record. Prior to Friday, they had lost only one time, which was by two to Auburn. But they blew a double-digit second half lead at Iowa State and ended up falling 63-56, not even covering the 4.5-point spot. That will be a difficult defeat to get over. Also difficult for the Red Raiders will be handling the Mountaineers' press. Against Iowa State, Tech turned the ball over 15 times, which is an ominous sign for tonight's matchup. Unlike WVU, Tech really didn't challenge itself during the non-conference portion of the schedule. What's their "best" win? It certainly won't be WVU after tonight. 10* West Virginia

8* Kentucky (9:00 ET): To me, the best team in the country is either Kentucky or West Virginia. Yes, UK has already lost twice. But those losses both came against top teams: UCLA (home) and Louisville (away). They were by a combined eight points. So what I'm saying is that there's no shame in the fact they've already tasted defeat twice. They've also beaten North Carolina at a neutral setting, remember. Coach Cal and company are also off an impressive drubbing of Ole Miss, in Oxford, last week. They won that game 99-76 as 11-point chalk and I'm envisioning a somewhat similar result tonight in Lexington. Lay the points.

Texas A&M arrives in Bluegrass country off a very disappointing result as they lost at home to Tennessee their last time out. They were 9.5-point favorites in the 73-63 loss last Thursday. It was actually the second straight lined affair that the Aggies lost outright. On December 17th, on a neutral floor, they lost 67-63 to Arizona. So this is a clearly a team the oddsmakers have had overvalued. There was also an early season loss (as six-point favorites) at home to USC. Their only other loss was on a neutral floor to UCLA. No shame w/ that result, but I still feel the oddsmakers are being too kind for what will certainly be the Aggies' toughest SEC game of the year. These teams did play three tight games last year (two won by UK), but that was a better A&M team as well. 

Tonight actually marks the 1st time that Kentucky has gotten to play at Rupp Arena since December 7th. Credit Coach Cal for scheduling a pretty tough non-conference slate. At home so far, the Wildcats are 6-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 23.8 points per game. Offensively, UK has few peers as they are third in efficiency and average a whopping 93.5 points per game. That's simply way too much firepower for a Texas A&M side (74.7 PPG) to compete against. The Aggies haven't been blown out yet, but this will also likely be their most difficult assignment of the season. The fact they shot less than 35% from the floor against Tennessee last Thursday does not bode well for them at all. 8* Kentucky

8* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): We go to the Southern Conference (5th oldest in the country!) for tonight's College Hoops play and we find a home dog with plenty of value. Yes, Chattanooga is the favorite to once again win this league and is rated among the top 100 nationally. But the Mocs will encounter a worthy challenger tonight in Greensboro. Making matters for difficult for the favorite is that it's their second road game in three days. UNC Greensboro will certainly not be lacking for motivation here as they are looking to bounce back from a surprise loss (here at home) to Samford on Saturday. Like Chattanooga, two of the Spartans losses came against major conference teams. They've lost only four times overall and I love the spot. Take the points.

Chattanooga's season got off to an impressive start as they went to Tennessee and won 82-69 as 3.5 point dogs. Then came a 40-point loss at North Carolina. But since then, the Mocs have gone 10-2 w/ both losses coming by six points or less. One of those losses was at Vanderbilt (by two). They've covered all but one of their last six games and are off B2B double digit wins, including 64-48 at Western Carolina in the SoCon opener. So why the fade here? Well, for starters, UNC Greensboro isn't likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Western Carolina did Saturday. The Catamounts were an awful 34 percent overall from the floor, including 2 of 10 from three-point range.

UNC Greensboro has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, but they had lost three in row straight up to Chattanooga before pulling a big upset LY as 12.5-pt road dogs. Their impressive 79-64 win last February marked the third consecutive time the road team has won in this rivalry. It was one of just THREE SoCon losses for the Mocs last year. Chattanooga has won it's last two visits to Greensboro Coliseum, but this is a much better Spartans team now. Yes, UNCG has failed to cover three in row, including a pair of double digit losses. But prior to that, their only two losses had both been by six points or less. I'm impressed w/ the team's defense (just 63.4 PPG allowed at home) and they should shoot a lot better here than they did in the loss to Samford (37.9%), which was a surprisingly poor performance (looking ahead?). They'll bounce back here. 8* UNC Greensboro

8* California (10:00 ET): For Arizona State, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot that all Pac 12 teams will face at one time or another during the course of the conference schedule. Considering the Sun Devils just pulled off an upset at Palo Alto, beating Stanford 98-93 as 6.5-pt dogs on Friday, a letdown is all but inevitable tonight in Berkeley. Conversely for Cal, this is a chance to atone for an outright loss to Arizona (were 2.5-pt favorites) on Friday (also a five-point game). The Bears have actually now lost two in a row at home, but considering who the losses were to (Virginia & Arizona) and the fact they were close, I am unconcerned. Prior to the B2B losses, Cal had won 27 in a row at Haas Pavilion. I'll lay the points w/ them here.

Though Cal has a poor ATS record overall this season (4-9), I'm proud to say that I was on them in two of the wins and covers. The first was an 86-61 rout of Cal Davis. The second came a week later and also a lopsided result, 81-55 over Cal Poly. There is no shame in losing to Virginia and Arizona, two of the best teams in the country, by a combined nine points even at home. They played both tough. Against Virginia, it was a tie game (22-22) at the break and they never trailed by more than five in the second half. As most opponents do, the Bears struggled to shoot the ball against the Cavaliers. The Arizona loss was more disappointing as they led by 13 at one point before wilting late. Again, poor shooting was the culprit. But after shooting 36% from the floor in B2B games, I look for the offense to bounce back here against an ASU team that is giving up 82.5 PPG on 46.7% shooting.

The Sun Devils are just 3-11 ATS when off a conference win the last two seasons, so there's a history of failing in this situation. In the case of their 98-93 win at Stanford on Friday, they got a career-high 30 points from Torian Graham and a season-high 25 points from Tra Holder. That won't be duplicated here, nor will the massive shooting discrepancy they held over the Cardinal from behind the three-point line (54% to 33%). I've gone over the talent on this Cal roster previously and I like this team quite a bit. I have them rated 4th in the Pac 12 (behind UCLA, Arizona and Oregon) while ASU is third worst. The Bears are the top defensive team in the league (only 59.9 PPG allowed) and have Ivan Raab, who is coming off yet ANOTHER double-double (16 pts, 16 rebounds). 8* California

10* Miami FL (4:30 ET): While it's been a really good start to the season for "The U," success has not translated to the betting window. The 'Canes are just 2-8 ATS despite being 10-2 straight up. Their last seven lined contests have all resulted in ATS failures, but that comes w/ a caveat as they've been asked to lay 14 or more points in each of the last five. Note that a good portion of those ATS results came down to the wire with three decided by three points or less. So it's not as if they're falling well short of the oddsmakers' expectations. This is still a very good team and for the ACC opener, I do believe they're being undervalued. They'll host a NC State team that has played only one "true" road game to date and that resulted in a double digit loss at Illinois.

Eight of Miami's 10 wins this year have come by double digits. None have been by fewer than eight points. The two losses came at neutral settings against good teams (Iowa State and Florida), both of whom are worthy of the Top 20 in my estimation. NC State is outside the Top 50. The Hurricanes remain on the fringes of the top 25 ("others receiving votes") and have an average margin of victory 21.1 PPG here in Coral Gables. That's after only beating Columbia by 11 on Wednesday (as 23-pt favorites), which stands as one of their biggest misses from the oddsmakers' call. Turnovers (20) were the primary issue there, but they'll come down that from season-high number of miscues here. It should also be noted Columbia was coming off nearly three full weeks of rest. 

NC State didn't challenge itself much during the non-conference portion of the schedule, save for a loss to Creighton where they got blown out. Their last six games all took place in Raleigh against non Power 5 foes. Unlike Miami, the Wolfpack have experienced success at the betting window as they are 4-0 ATS here in December. But Tennessee State, Appalachian State, Fairfield and Rider are hardly an impressive slate of opponents. None of NC State's last five opponents have shot better than 38% from the floor, which I credit more to inferior opposition than the Wolfpack's defense. This team has three wins by four points or less so far, all against pretty weak competition (Ga Southern, Loyola-IL and Bradley). Lay the points. 10* Miami FL

10* Dayton (6:00 ET): This is the Atlantic 10 opener for both Dayton and LaSalle, the former coming in as the favorite to bag the regular season conference crown. The Flyers finished in a three-way tie atop the A-10 standings last year, along w/ St. Bonaventure and VCU. They are by no means a decided favorite to win the league in 2017, but they certainly are a "cut above" this evening's opponent, LaSalle. The Explorers finished in the A-10 basement last season at 4-14 SU in conference play and 9-22 SU overall. They already have six wins this year and played #1 Villanova relatively tough at a neutral setting. But that was still a double digit loss and this will be too. Dayton won't take this game lightly as they actually lost at LaSalle (as 11.5-pt favorites) last season. Lay the points. 

Considering Dayton was a 20-pt favorite when they hosted LaSalle last year, this seems like a really good value. The Explorers have lost 13 of their 14 all-time visits here. There was a bit of a concern over whether or not Flyers' leading scorer Charles Cooke (19.2 PPG) would play here due to a wrist injury, but HC Archie Miller has said "he's a go." He missed last week's game vs. VMI, but it hardly mattered as seven Flyers' scored in double figures en route to an easy 92-56 win. This team is shooting the ball preposterously well so far and against VMI they were better than 60% from the floor, including 55.6% from three-point range. Defensively, they are significantly stronger than LaSalle, which will ultimately be the difference here. 

It's not just that Dayton is better than LaSalle defensively, it's that the Explorers are pretty awful defensively. Actually, that's putting it mildly: they are one of the worst defensive teams in the entire country. Currently, they are allowing 83.2 points per game, which is 338th out of 351 teams. They are 349th when it comes to defending the three-point line at 43.1%. Considering what we just saw from Dayton in the last game, not to mention all season, LaSalle is going to give up a ton of points here. I've already played against the Explorers once this year and they lost 93-78 at Georgetown. Since then, they've won a pair of games decided by four points or less, over Fla Gulf Coast and Mercer. That game against Mercer, their first outside of Philly this year, went to triple overtime and actually saw them score their fewest pts in regulation to date. This shapes up as a total mismatch. 10* Dayton

10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): West Virginia has won and covered all four meetings w/ Oklahoma State the L2 seasons and is the always tenuous short road favorite this afternoon in Stillwater, the first Big 12 game for both. Typically, such a scenario would have me leaning the other way, but I simply have way too much regard for the Mountaineers and cannot for the life of me understand why this line isn't higher. Also, how is WVU only 11th in the polls? I have them rated as one of the five best teams in the country (at least!). Maybe it's because Oklahoma State now has Brad Underwood running things on the bench that this line is so low. Underwood, of course, previous served as HC at Stephen F Austin, who upset WVU in LY's NCAA Tournament. But that fact won't be lost on Bob Huggins and these Mountaineers players, who are out for revenge.

I took West Virginia exactly one week ago in their last game. They actually only led Northern Kentucky by seven at the half (this was in Morgantown), but put the clamps down late and pulled away, outscoring the Norse by 24 over the final 20 minutes. As discussed in LW's analysis, WVU is a very deep squad - sometimes going as deep as 13 players - and is also #1 in the country in forcing turnovers. They are top four nationally in defensive efficiency and top 14 in offensive efficiency. Six of their last seven wins have been by at least 27 pts. Sure, you might make the argument that this is a "true" road game, just their second of the season to date. Well, in their first they went to Virginia and won 66-57 as eight-point dogs, the lone non-27+ pt win over the L7 games, yet perhaps the most impressive victory of the bunch. 

Oklahoma State had to hire Underwood because the program had fallen on hard times under predecessor Travis Ford. The Cowboys went just 12-20 SU last season, so clearly they have a long way to go. They're already 10-2 SU for Underwood, but a 107-75 loss vs. North Carolina earlier in the year tells me they are nowhere near ready for an opponent of this caliber. Underwood is trying to build his team the same way Huggins has his, and in the same vein as we saw at SFA. But the problem here is that WVU is simply much better in all facets of the game right now. 10* West Virginia

8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Officially, Portland State hails from Big Sky country. However, the Vikings may want to petition to join the West Coast Conference. That's because already we've seen them pull off three outright wins over WCC foes, all on the road and all as underdogs of 8.5 pts or more. For the record, the three teams that they beat were: Pepperdine, San Francisco and Portland. Maybe PSU is the team that could finally unseat Gonzaga? In all seriousness, the Vikings appear to primed and ready to roll in tonight's conference opener vs. a North Dakota side that has dropped three in a row. These two are expected to be the top challengers to Weber State in the Big Sky, so a win would go a long way. I expect the home team to get the job done.

Portland State has won all four of its home games, by an average 33.8 points per game, though I should point out that none of those games were lined. (All four opponents were non-D1). The most recent visits came from Walla Walla exactly one week ago and that resulted in a 118-59 victory. But prior to that were the upsets of San Francisco and Portland. Against the latter, they impressively controlled the game most of the way, even leading by double digits at the half. With the exception of two games this year - losses at Arizona State and Loyola Marymount (another WCC team), the Vikings have scored a minimum of 77 pts every time out. Among all Big Sky teams, this one was tops offensively and record-wise through the non-conf slate.

North Dakota is 0-3 ATS head to head w/ PSU the L2 seasons, though they did win SU (by three) in LY's lone meeting (were -4 at home). Because Portland State was initially pegged so low in the Big Sky this season, we are still able to grab some nice value in this spot. As mentioned above, North Dakota did not finish its non-conference schedule well, though a double digit loss at Iowa was to be expected. They've been off for seven full days, which could actually work against them (rest vs. rust?). In the end, all we are looking at here is a team winning SU on its home court. I don't think that's too much to ask in this matchup. 8* Portland State

10* Purdue (8:30 ET): The Big 10 Conference enjoyed a renaissance on the football field this year, challenging the all-mighty SEC as the best in the land. However, somewhat quietly, the level of play we've seen in Big 10 basketball has ironically faded at the same time. During the Big 10's time as arguably the strongest league nationally, Iowa was a program that never really lived up to the hype. The Hawkeyes certainly aren't as strong now as they've been in past years, thus I shudder to think what the reaction will be from the always temperamental HC Fran McCaffery here as his team faces what I have ranked as the standard-bearer for Big 10 basketball in 2016, Purdue. I look for the Boilermakers to roll tonight in West Lafayette. Lay the points.

Really, one could make case that any one of three teams could win the Big 10 this year. Iowa is not among that group. Purdue is, along w/ Wisconsin and Indiana. But as stated earlier, I currently have the Boilermakers rated as the best of the lot. They finished the non-conference slate at 11-2 SU w/ a 46-pt rout of Norfolk State seven days ago. Their only losses so far have come to Villanova and Louisville, who are a combined 23-1 straight up. The loss to 'Nova did come here in West Lafayette, but otherwise they're 7-0 SU at home and still outscoring visitors by a whopping 24.5 points per game. Since losing at Louisville on 11.30, Matt Painter's team has covered all five of its lined games, including an impressive 86-81 win over Notre Dame. Every other win has come by at least 24 points. This is a loaded roster, which contains the Big 10's leading scorer (Peter Jok at 22.6 PPG) and Caleb Swanigan, who just went for 32 points and 20 rebounds in the last game.

Making this play all the more appetizing is that it's a double revenge spot for Purdue as they lost both meetings last season. In the game here at home, they blew a 17-point halftime lead and somehow lost despite holding the Hawkeyes to just 20 first half points. This year, Iowa is not as strong as they've already lost five times, including a game to Nebraska-Omaha. The Hawkeyes have played just one "true" road game thus far and lost it (by double digits) to the same Notre Dame team that Purdue just beat. Including neutral site games, Iowa is just 1-3 away from Iowa City. They, like Purdue, come in with plenty of rest, but the problem there is an 18-40 ATS record when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Purdue has been one of the best teams to bet on in recent years, going 46-25 ATS in all games L3 seasons, including 7-1 as a favorite so far in 2016. 10* Purdue

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): In the rugged ACC, Syracuse is on the verge of becoming somewhat irrelevant. Perhaps that's an overreaction. After all, the program was just in the Final Four (as a 10-seed) last season. But it does appear as if another mediocre regular season is in the cards, judging by recent results. The Orange are nowhere close to the level of North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Louisville. That become patently obvious when they lost outright, by 33, to former Big East foe St. John's here at home, six days ago. They were 14-point favorites in that game. It was the Orange's second home loss in three games and the worst ever at the Carrier Dome. But there is a precedent for a bounce back and keep in mind this team used to never lose non-conference home games. I'll still lay the points here. 

Syracuse was simply atrocious from the field against St. John's, which partly explains the shocking result. They were just 32.8% overall, including 4 of 24 from three-point range. This is the first time in Jim Boeheim's coaching career that he's lost five times in the non-conference portion of the schedule. St. John's has generally been awful under Chris Mullin, so I really can't state how shocking a loss, particularly the margin it came by, was. But, as I said earlier, there is precedent for a bounce back here. After losing to Georgetown on 12.17, two days later the Orange blew out Eastern Michigan here at the Dome, 105-57. I expect something similar, maybe not quite as severe, here. The team is 5-2 ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. 

Cornell is the opponent Monday and they are a regular on the Syracuse schedule. Not surprisingly, the head to head matchups have been lopsided in favor of the Orange. It was a 21-point win last year. Cornell is not as strong this season as they have only three wins, one of them coming their last time out against SE Missouri State. The 78-62 win there represents their largest margin of victory - easily - all season. Away from home, where the Big Red has played most of its games, they are giving up over 80 points per game. Offensively, they have only three players averaging more than six points per game. 10* Syracuse

10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): I've seen terms like "upstart" thrown around when referring to Northern Kentucky, who comes to us by way of the Horizon League. And perhaps that's true; the Norse are 9-3 straight up in this still young season, having already pulled off three outright upsets. Overall, they are 7-1 ATS at the betting window, including a perfect 4-0 when getting points. But, needless to say, it's a big step up in class from their previous opponent (NAIA school Brescia) to West Virginia, who almost everyone considers one of the seven best teams in the country. Well, except the pollsters, but what to do they know? Bob Huggins' Mountaineers are 8-0 SU in Morgantown w/ an avg MOV of 41 points per game! So, yeah, don't be afraid to lay this number, which should be several points higher.

WVU is a deep team. Huggins has elected to go w/ a 13 man rotation at times. Given the defensive pressure we see from them, that's probably a wise move at this juncture of the season. Currently, the Mountaineers lead the country in forcing turnovers at a whopping 26.3 per game. They are a top four team in terms of defensive efficiency and also top 15 on the offensive end. The lone loss came at a neutral setting against Temple (by four) and since then the Mounties have won six in a row, five of those coming by at least 27 points. The one exception, ironically, was perhaps the most impressive in the streak: a 66-57 win at Virginia. Despite beating Radford 84-57 three days ago, Huggins was sure to label his team's second half performance as "really lethargic," so expect this to be a motivated favorite this afternoon. For the record, while WVU was outscored in the second half by Radford (35-31), they also entered halftime w/ a 53-22 advantage.

Maybe Northern Kentucky is an "upstart." But here they're simply "overmatched." Norse HC John Brannen wasn't exactly pleased w/ his team's last performance, despite it also being a 20+ pt win. But the difference between NKU and WVU is that the former is in no position to "name the score" here. Picking to finish seventh in the 10-team Horizon League, the Norse have taken advantage of some generous lines thus far. Remember, their last two opponents were Eastern Washington (maybe the biggest overachiever in terms of wins & losses in the country) and a NAIA school. They have lost to Austin Peay, NC Central and Illinois by 15. Without question, this will be the toughest opponent they face all year. 10* West Virginia

10* Air Force (4:00 ET): This will be the second time this week that I'm taking the Flyboys here in Colorado Springs. Monday, I backed them getting points against Colorado. Though Colorado somewhat gifted us the cover w/ some bad FT shooting down the stretch, note that it was also a tie game w/ just under 10 minutes remaining. Air Force outrebounded the Buffs, but all of those achievements are nothing more than Pyrrhic considering it was the Falcons' second straight loss at home and sixth in the last seven games overall. But, I feel the third time will be the charm Thursday in Colorado Springs. What is it with these bad Big West teams? Yesterday's 10* College Hoops play saw me fade Cal State Northridge and today I'll do the same w/ Cal Davis. Lay the points.

Cal Davis snapped its own four-game losing skid last Saturday, but that came at the expense of William Jessup. The Aggies actually burned me by covering last week at North Dakota State, a game where they were getting 10 points. I'm not so sure that the difference between N Dakota State and Air Force is as great as the oddsmakers are making it out to be here. Note that the entirety of Cal Davis' losing streak came away from home, either in a neutral site game (1) or "true" road games (3). I did successfully play against them in a 25-point loss at Cal on December 10th. Save for Cal, it's been a pretty weak schedule for the Aggies to this point. 

These teams have exchanged upset victories each of the last two seasons. In 2014, it was Cal Davis coming here to Colorado Springs and winning outright as 6.5-point pups, 81-75.  The AFA returned the favor last season by winning 67-60 as 4.5-point pups. This year, I say it's time for the favorite to hold serve. Air Force is most certainly the better team here and they're at home. Despite the losing streak, they've arguably been competitive in every game as all but one loss was by single digits. As I continue to harp on, the bottom of the Big West seems to be really bad this year and Air Force is 6-2 ATS its last eight games vs. this conference. I just can't see the Falcons losing a third consecutive home game and the number is small. 10* Air Force

10* Boise State (9:00 ET): This time of year, the faithful on the Boise State campus are typically more concerned with the school's upcoming bowl game. This year, the Broncos' football team will be facing Baylor, next Tuesday, in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. But there's also a basketball game taking place on campus tonight and that's against a struggling Cal State Northridge team that is ripe to be routed. I've successfully targeted many of these Big West bottom feeders during this incredible College Hoops run I'm on and one could make the argument that the Matadors are the worst that conference has to offer. They come into tonight only 3-8 SU/2-7 ATS on the season and they've yet to win on the road. Lay the points.

A 100-95 loss to Bethesda on Friday was certainly not a "good look" for Northridge. That's a NCCAA (National Christian College Athletic Association) school for those keeping track. Thus, one could say the Matadors don't have a "prayer" here (heyyyyyy-o!). By the way, that game did not got into overtime. CSN actually allowed 100 pts in regulation to a non D-I school, at home! Bethesda led the entire second half and by as many as 10 at one point. It would be one thing if the Matadors had been playing well previously, but they had not. Two of their three wins this year came in games where they were favored and those wins were both by three points or less. (The other was against a non DI school). So calling for a "bounce back" in this situation seems fruitless. 

Boise State made a strong accounting for itself its last time out, waxing Idaho State 82-59 as 15.5-pt chalk. Ironically, Idaho State is also one of the three teams that Cal State Northridge beat this year. But the Matadors won by only three over the Bengals. Boise State has beaten SMU, a good team, on this floor. They've also gone to Oregon, a top 20 team, and lost by only five. In eight of their 10 games, the Broncos have had the lead at halftime. This is a strong home team as well w/ a 41-1 SU run vs. non-conference foes. Overall, they are 59-8 SU L67 home games. Three-point defense is huge for the Broncos as opponents are only making 4.5 per game against them at a 29% clip. In other words, this is a total mismatch and I look for BSU to end its non-conference slate on a high note. Cal State Northridge may also again be w/o Aaron Parks (undisclosed), who is one of their four double digits scorers. That would really hurt a team w/ little depth. 10* Boise State

8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Oregon, now ranked #20 in the polls (fair ranking), has lost only two times all year. One of those came in their lone "true" road game, at Baylor, all the way back on November 15th. The other came six days later vs. Georgetown in Maui, a game they fell way behind early, only to have a furious second half rally come up just shy. There should be no need for a rally Tuesday evening in Eugene as Fresno State comes to campus. Given what we've seen from the Ducks thus far, I have every reason to believe that this will end up being another blowout adding to their already impressive average margin of victory (+24.6 PPG) here at home. Fresno State, playing its second road game in four days, is off a tough two-point win over Pacific. I question what the Bulldogs have left in the tank here. Lay the points.

Having covered that last game (barely) as 1.5-point favorites, FSU is now 4-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS overall. But the competition hasn't been all that impressive and they've actually lost a pair of non-lined games to Prairie View A&M and Cal State Bakersfield. Prairie View A&M is among the worst teams in the entire country and the CS-Bakersfield game was on the road. Since then the Bulldogs have won six of seven, the only loss coming by three at Marquette, but this will be their toughest foe yet. That game on Saturday vs. Pacific saw the Bulldogs nail a pair of free throws in the closing seconds as they erased what had been a five-point deficit w/ just 1:15 to go.

Oregon comes into tonight riding a 32-game home win streak, which is third longest in the nation. They are currently w/o leading scorer Chris Boucher, but Jordan Bell more than picked up the slack w/ 16 pts and 12 rebounds in the 20-point win over UNLV (which took place in Portland) Saturday night. Remember, this Ducks team not only won the Pac 12 last year, they reached the Elite 8. Fresno State has NEVER won in Eugene and has not beaten a Top 25 squad since 2002. Should be an easy one for the Ducks. 8* Oregon

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): Very little has gone right for James Madison so far this season. Case in point, they couldn't even manage a cover (as underdogs) against Appalachian State on Saturday despite the game going into OT. The Dukes were outscored 14-2 in the extra period, thereby ensuring they would NOT cover the 3.5-point spread. While close throughout, JMU led at the half and was up three w/ just six seconds remaining in regulation. So they were actually outscored 17-2 over the final 5:06. The loss leaves the Dukes at a rather ugly 1-9 SU this season as well as 1-7 ATS. The lone cover came at old CAA rival George Mason back on 11.26 while the lone SU win came at the expense of non-board team Longwood on 12.3

That all being said, I see some value on the Dukes in this spot as they get set to host Richmond. Obviously, they should feel somewhat "robbed" of the cover their last time out. Not only that, but this team has lost four other games by seven points or less, so it's not as if they're being routinely blown out. They also get to return home for the 1st time since 11.23. That's nearly a full month, if you're keeping score at home. This team has played just three home games thus far and while I faded them in an ugly loss to Rice early in the year, we've now come full circle. They're now hosting a team that they've beaten outright each of the last two seasons!

I'm not sure that Richmond deserves to be favored on the road, even against a 1-9 opponent. The Spiders are also in off a loss, theirs coming at home to Texas Tech. That will be a tough loss to get over as TT is a good team and Richmond had the lead at half. But they were down by as many as 17 in the second half before rallying. Also, there was a scary situation with freshman Grant Golden collapsing on the bench. Now playing as a road favorite for the 1st time in 2016, this is a tough spot for the Spiders. They are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far this season, including an outright loss to another old CAA rival of JMU's, that being Old Dominion. The Spiders are just 2-11 ATS in the month of December the L2 years and have lost outright three of the past four times they've been road chalk of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* James Madison

10* Air Force (9:00 ET): These are in-state foes, remember. Colorado has won and covered its last three visits here to Colorado Springs and also beat the AFA last season in Boulder, 81-70, albeit they failed to cash as 15-pt chalk. For this year's matchup, I do not like the setup for the Buffaloes perspective. This will be their second game in three days and while the last one was a "cupcake," only beating Fort Hayes State by 10 points is a bit of a troubling sight. Meanwhile, the Flyboys have been off since December 10th when they lost here at home to Denver. That was their first home loss of the year after starting 6-0 SU, so grabbing the points seems ideal and a nice value. Air Force has lost five of six, but most of the losses have been close.

The AFA has run into some red-hot shooting opponents of late, most notably Denver, who finished the game at a blistering 56.9% from the field.The Pioneers got a career-best effort from Daniel Amigo, who finished w/ 33 points. It was a similar story on 12.7 at Army as the Cadets shot better than 50 percent. But the time off should help shore up the defense and quite frankly Colorado isn't a good shooting team anyway. The Buffs are barely above 40% from the field the L5 games, which cost them games vs. Colorado State and BYU. Earlier, I spoke of the fact that the AFA has played well at home this year. They are averaging 85.6 PPG here and outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. They are also 8-2 ATS the L10 times taking the court w/ at least seven days rest.

Colorado HC Tad Davis did not mince words concerning his team's performance Saturday, the second half in particular, despite coming out on the winning end. "This team has two things going for it right now," Boyle said. "Number one, they own the most-disappointing loss in that seven-year span, the Colorado State game a few weeks ago. And now they also can add to that, that they own the most-disappointing win." Beating a D-II school by only 10 pts at home, following a long break, is certainly not a "good look." Yes, CU led by as many as 21 in the first half. But they barely outrebounded Fort Hayes State and allowed a player (Rob Davis) to score 29 pts after halftime.  The Buffs are just 7-19 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. 10* Air Force

10* Tennessee (4:00 ET): It's no secret that I've been targeting the rapidly dwindling number of unbeaten teams left in the country. That number is still six after Saturday, though the weakest of the bunch (USC) got a major scare from 22-point underdog Troy (who I was on) as did UCLA and Creighton. Aside from defending National Champion Villanova, I don't believe any of the other unbeatens are among the very best in the nation, though everyone except USC belongs in the top 25. One of those teams is Gonzaga, who takes the court for the first time in eight days. The Zags have yet to play a "true" road game and while this one isn't on Tennessee's campus, you still have to figure it will be quite the partisan crowd in Nashville at the Bridgestone Arena (home of the NHL's Predators). I'm taking the points. 

Though Gonzaga arrives here at 10-0 SU and off three consecutive covers, they have had some close calls thus far. Three times they've won by seven points or less, against Iowa State, Florida and Arizona. Those games were all contested at far more "neutral" sites than this one. Last time we saw them, they drubbed poor Akron 61-43, a game where the Zips shot a miserable 26.7% from the field. It was a similar story for Gonzaga's previous opponent, Washington, who was held to 30.4%. Fortunately for our sake, Tennessee comes in shooting 46.9% for the year. They've been above 45% in each of the L6 games, four times making more than they missed.

At the same time, the Vols have done an excellent job defending, the three-point line in particular. None of their L5 opponents have shot 45% from the field and for the year teams are shooting below 30% from behind the arc against them. Tennessee is no stranger to playing elite teams this year as this will be the fourth Top 20 foe that they've faced. They're a perfect 3-0 ATS against Oregon, Wisconsin and North Carolina and actually led the Tar Heels for much of the second half, in Chapel Hill, last Saturday. While Gonzaga's been off, the Vols have played twice this week, blowing out both Tennessee Tech and Lipscomb. This is a revenge spot as well from an eight-point loss in Seattle last year. 10* Tennessee

8* Troy (10:30 ET): With two weeks to go in the calendar year, six unbeaten teams remain in College Basketball. One of them, USC, is significantly worse than the rest. (Admittedly, Villanova is also appreciably better than the other four). Therefore, I'll fade the Trojans here against an opponent of their same namesake. Though part of the Las Vegas Classic, note this is still a home game for USC, who has now cracked the top 25 in the AP Poll. But they still haven't cracked my own top 25, nor are they that close to doing so. (Top 35 is more appropriate). Despite missing Bennie Boatright, they still haven't been tested recently, but I'll call for that to change in this late Saturday night start. Charles Buggs is also listed as questionable here w/ a hamstring injury.

Troy has taken advantage of a pretty light schedule here in December in rolling to three consecutive victories over non-lined foes. Last time out, these Trojans blew out Point University 114-52, the second time they've topped 100 pts against a non-DI foe this year. Scoring has dipped rather dramatically when they take their act out on the road, but this is still a big pointspread for a team that has lost by more than 12 pts only one time this year. A 1-5 ATS record has just as much to do w/ this spread as does USC's surprising start and as we so often see, this confluence has led to an overreaction by the marketplace. In my estimation, this spread should be several points lower.

Boatright was considered to be one of the best power forwards in the nation, so his loss is significant. Buggs is not really a major contributor, but his potential absence still thins the roster. Granted, USC had no trouble w/ Pepperdine on Sunday (won 93-67), their only game in the last two weeks. But I can't see a duplication of their red-hot shooting from that game (56.6%!), nor is Troy likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Pepper

10* California (8:00 ET): Last Saturday, Cal was my 10* Game of the Week and the Bears treated me well w/ a 86-61 win over UC Irvine. They haven't played since and a week later we find them drawing another overmatched Big West opponent. That would be Cal Poly, who has said "goodbye" to home for the remainder of 2016 as the Mustangs are embarking on a six-game trip which will lead into the start of conference play. Granted, this isn't a long trip, but it's a daunting one given that Cal is now at full strength and looking good. Cal Poly has already lost to one Pac 12 team, Arizona State, by 22 earlier in the year. Cal is a significantly better team than ASU, so lay the points here.

Cal Poly, like Cal, was off all week due to exams. Unlike the Bears, they lost their last game. It was a double-digit defeat at the hands of Fresno State to start this six-game trip. Again, that's a much inferior squad compared to what they'll face here. The Mustangs trailed by as many as 20 points last Saturday and matched their lowest offensive output of the season (59 points) due to some pretty dreadful shooting (19 of 51 from the field). It was the second time in three games that they scored only 59 pts, which is not a good sign here against a Cal team playing excellent defense. Extended rest has never helped the Mustangs in the past as they're just 1-6 ATS the last seven tries taking the court w/ at least five or six days rest. They had been off a whole week prior to playing Fresno State as well.

Cal has allowed more than 65 points in a game just once all season. Here in Berkeley, where they are undefeated (7-0, winning by an avg of 17 PPG), they are holding teams to 59 PPG on 36.7% shooting. So it promises to be a long night for Cal Poly on the offensive end here. This is a big game as Cal can set a new school record w/ a 27th consecutive victory at home!  As I mentioned in my writeup last week, the Bears are now healthier than they've been all season. Having Ivan Raab also helps as the preseason All-American is averaging 14.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. But it is freshman Charlie Moore now leading the way w/ 17.6 PPG. The Bears have three double-digit scorers and are a top 16 team nationally in rebounding and points allowed. This shapes up as another mismatch for them at Haas Pavillion. This team will be a threat in the Pac 12 this year. 10* California

10* Miami (FL): These two Floridian schools are both coming off long breaks (exams) and big wins. The last time we saw Miami FL, they were drubbing a clearly overmatched South Carolina State squad, 82-46 (non-lined game). That same day (December 6th), Florida Atlantic pulled of a major upset in beating Ohio State, in Columbus, as 20-pt underdogs. While the Owls have been competitive this year (three losses by four points or less), I feel the upset of OSU has created a situation where they're getting far too much respect from the market here. Miami is a better team than the Buckeyes and thus deserving of a higher price range. Yes, some adjustment must be made for FAU's win, but this would be a classic overadjustment. Lay the points.

Florida Atlantic has played three "true" road games to this point and all have been decided by two points or less! That's two losses (Hawaii & UT Martin) plus the stunner in Columbus. How did the Owls upset the Buckeyes, you ask? Well, first let's point out the game went into overtime. FAU had to rally back from an 11-point second half deficit just to get the extra five minutes of game time and they were clearly aided by a bevy of Buckeyes' turnovers and missed three-pointers. The key to the upset, as it often is in this sport, was beyond the three-point arc where FAU went 10 of 25 and Ohio State was just 4 of 20. Perhaps the long break between games somewhat mitigates the concept of a "letdown" taking place here, but I still think the Owls are drastically overmatched heading into Coral Gables.

The U is not ranked currently, but to me they are on the fringes of the Top 25. (For the record, they are in the "others receiving votes" category). Their only two losses this year have been to Iowa State and Florida, both on a neutral court. Those are both Top 20 teams, IMO, and they were actually favored over ISU (small dog vs. Florida). Those two losses begat a four-game ATS slide, so many may be wary of laying this kind of weight, but note that the 'Canes just missed out on covering similar DD spreads vs. Wofford and Rutgers. Teams are shooting just 36.2% against The U for the season. Meanwhile, The U is shooting 47%. FAU can enjoy the hiring of Lane Kiffin because this game will not go well. 10* Miami FL

10* Murray State (8:00 ET): We have a relatively "short" number that a SEC school is laying against a so-called "mid-major." It's for good reason. The fact that Ole Miss checked in at #26 in the RPI heading into their last game (80-75 loss at Va Tech) shows just how flawed that particular metric is. The far more reliable KenPom ratings have them 93rd, which is about where Vegas has them as well. That game at Virginia Tech, the Rebels' first "true" road date of the season, saw them trail the entire second half and fall behind by as many as 14. Defensively, there are major issues in Oxford and I think those will cost them tonight laying this number against an always dangerous Murray State squad. 

This may not be the finest edition of Murray State basketball that we've seen through the years, but the Racers are deadly in this spot nonetheless. Yes, they've failed to cover their last five lined games, losing outright twice as a favorite. But they were at least able to build some confidence by blowing out NAIA school Bethel, 103-65 on Monday. While the Racers have yet to win B2B games this season, this will be the most points they've been catching so far. They covered as 9-point pups in the second game of the year, at Middle Tennessee, who is a better team that Ole Miss. Don't believe me? The Blue Raiders beat the Rebels 77-62 in Oxford on November 30th! That loss to Middle Tennessee is one of three for Murray State this year to come by six points or less (11 pts total).

In nine games this season, Ole Miss has allowed at least eight made three-pointers eight times. Overall, they are giving up over 80 PPG. There's been only one game all year where they didn't allow at least 77 points. That's good for the underdog here as the Racers come in averaging 80 PPG and that's even after the dreadful shooting performance last week at Evansville. Ole Miss allowed Va Tech to sink 10 three-pointers on Sunday. Note that Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference rival UT Martin came here to Oxford and nearly won outright (as 17-pt dogs), losing by just three. That's one of three wins by five points or less so far for the Rebels. Murray State, while yet to play a Power 5 team, has scored at least 73 points in every game but one, that being the disaster that occurred vs. Evansville. Ole Miss has covered only four times this season, twice in losses where they were the underdogs and twice as a fave of 4.5 pts or less. The number is too high here. 10* Murray State

8* UC Santa Barbara (10:30 ET): On paper, this shapes up as a colossal mismatch and there's no way I can stump for UCSB to win this game straight up. But at some point, the market has to run some "interference" and that's what I believe will take place here as the Gauchos' 0-5 ATS record should be remedied by what will certainly be the largest spread they'll face all season. Of course, there's a reason for this spread and the reason happens to be UCLA is unbeaten and rolling. The Bruins are 10-0 SU, ranked #2 in the country and have covered the spread in each of their last seven games. But they're due for a bit of an "off night" at least once, right? After high-profile games against Kentucky and Michigan, I'l call for that "off night" to take place here.

Note that in three of UCSB's five lined games, they have been the betting favorite. That includes Sunday's 77-68 loss to San Diego where they were 2.5-pt chalk on the road. Missing on 18 of 23 three-point attempts, plus going just 9 of 17 from the FT line did the Gauchos no favors in that one, especially w/ the Toreros making 12 three-point FG's and making over 90% of their own FT attempts. Going from a road favorite to near 30-pt underdog is quite the swing here for UCSB and while this is a really tough opponent, it's not like they haven't faced some strong competition. Already this season, they have played at both SMU and USC, the latter of whom is also still undefeated (though not nearly as strong as UCLA). Yes, UCSB's lone win thus far came against a non-DI school. But I believe they'll compete here.

At some point, UCLA HAS to cool off from three-point range. Right now, they are shooting an unsustainable 47.1% from behind the arc and Saturday vs. Michigan saw them go 15 of 24 from there and shoot 67.2% overall from the field!! In seven of 10 games, this team has now scored at least 97 points. Again, this cannot possibly continue. One thing I would worry about if I were a Bruins fan is defense as opponents are also shooting 40% from 3-pt range against them here at Pauley Pavillion. It was a 50-50 game (literally, that was the score) at halftime Saturday vs. Michigan. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points here. 8* UC Santa Barbara

10* North Dakota State (8:00 ET): North Dakota State is a university known for football and this Saturday will see the Bison square off w/ James Madison in the FCS semifinals. But it's the school's basketball team that I'm interested in tonight as they're at home, off a home loss. The 74-56 home loss to in-state rival North Dakota exactly one week ago dropped the Bison to 0-5 at the betting window on the still young season and was the second time they lost outright as favorites. But tonight in Fargo, I see them bouncing back in a major way against poor Cal Davis, who was the victim of my 10* Game of the Week selection on Saturday when they lost at Cal 86-61, the third consecutive time they've tasted defeat. Lay the points here.

It's hard to envision what Cal Davis might have left in the tank here. This is their third straight road game to start December and, in fact, 10 of their 11 games this season have been played on the road or at neutral sites! In my analysis Saturday, I spoke of the Aggies' propensity to turn the ball over too much and how they were subpar at both ends of the court. Nothing I saw in Berkeley changed my mind. They turned it over a season-high 21 times against Cal and shot a woeful 17 of 42 on two-point attempts. Going into halftime, it was a 39-18 game and whether or not Cal would cover the 17-pt spot was the only question. Did I mention the Aggies also allowed the Bears to shoot 56.5% from the field?

NDSU has dropped three of four and this will be the final non-conference home game before Summit League play begins. With a three-game road trip looming, which includes a game at Arkansas, it's really critical for the Bison to win here to build some "momentum." (hate that word!). Fortunately, UC Davis should be a willing "dance partner." These teams met in LY's season opener and it was NDSU winning on the road, 79-71, as three-point chalk (actually trailed by six at halftime). I think the combination of a week off + looking to atone for a home loss has the Bison ready to go here. They are giving up just 63.8 PPG this season and have covered three of the last four times they've played w/ five plus days rest. 10* North Dakota State

10* Morehead State (9:05 ET): My, oh my, what a curious line this is. We have the home team (Eastern Washington), winners of six straight, laying just the "token" three points to our side, which has lost six straight. If you think something is "rotten in Denmark" here, you're not alone. A clear trap has been set here by the oddsmakers and it's one that I, personally, will not be falling for. Note that while EWU has won its last six games, two of those (against the same opponent!) have come in double overtime, another in just single OT plus and two more were decided by six points or less. Save for the last game, a 103-76 win over non-lined Great Falls, this has been one of the least dominant six-game win streaks that I can recall. Take the points.

The team that Eastern Washington beat twice in double overtime, in a 12-day span mind you, is Seattle. The first occasion took place on 11.22. The game saw EWU tie the game up on a three-pointer w/ less than six seconds to go in both regulation and the 1st OT. The second time around, this time at Seattle (on 12.4), saw them have to rally back from a 14-pt deficit in the second half. The Eagles also had to rally from a halftime deficit to defeat Denver in OT here at home on 11.27. "Way back" on 11.21, they benefited from 34 FT attempts and a career game from Bogdan Bliznyuk to beat Bryant by only four. Free throws were again key in a six-point win over San Francisco on 11.27 as the Eagles were 23 of 26 from the charity stripe while the Dons were just 14 of 22. That game also saw EWU have to rally from a seven-point halftime deficit. So, what I'm saying is that this team is extraordinarily lucky to be 7-2 SU right now. 

Morehead State would obviously "kill" to have that record, but I see more positive things on the horizon for these Eagles tonight. There's a bit of controversy here as HC Sean Woods (former player at Kentucky) is still suspended as an investigation takes place over his treatment of players. But the real issue for Morehead State has been their opponents simply can't miss from three-point range. Their last two opponents, Purdue and Lipscomb, have combined to 30 of 55 (54.5%) from behind the arc! That's insane. (Note the Eagles had beaten Lipscomb earlier in the year). That doesn't even include ridiculously hot shooting games from Pitt and Evansville either. This can't all be blamed on the Morehead State defense either as they are quite good at forcing steals (8.8 per game, which is 24th in the country) and have a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio, which leads their conference (OVC). This was pegged to be one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley this season and I see them going to Cheney and picking up a road win. 10* Morehead State

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): To me at least, this is a shockingly low number for a team that still has only 1 loss to be laying against such an inferior foe. I actually played against Maryland in their lone loss of the season, which came back on November 29th, to Pitt, 73-59 (were 4.5-pt favorites). In my analysis for that game, I did mention how the Terps' unbeaten run was somewhat living on "borrowed time" considering they'd posted several close wins to start the year, two of them by exactly one point. Immediately after the Pitt loss, they posted another (71-70 over Oklahoma State), which ironically I was on. Since then, they've won by double digits over both Howard and St. Peter's. I see that being the case here again tonight vs. overmatched Jacksonville State. Lay the points.

Whomever handles Jacksonville State's schedule must be part sadist. Either that, or the school is simply trying to rack up frequent flyer miles. This will be the Gamecocks' 11th game of the season and 10th away from home! Furthermore, they'll be playing nothing but "true" road games from now until the end of the calendar year. The current trek began w/ a three-point win over Alabama State on 11.29 (same day Maryland suffered its only loss). Since then, they've lost at Samford and LA Monroe, both times by five points or less. While those were close games, the step up in class here is rather immense. Shockingly, this spread is almost identical to the one JSU faced when taking on Tulsa, a team I rate seven points worse than Maryland! Yes, the Gamecocks won that first game outright, but again, this will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date.

Fatigue could certainly be a factor for the Gamecocks here as well. The loss at LA Monroe took place Saturday and that game went into overtime. Maryland also played Saturday, but that was at home and they were not tested (never trailed!). Yes, center Damonte Dodd is out here w/ a knee injury, but that should not affect this game. Leading scorer Melo Trimble has found support in the form of a pair of freshman - Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter. Keep in mind that the Terps led by as many as 25 in the second half Saturday before clearly taking their foot off the proverbial gas pedal.  10* Maryland

8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): Entering play on Sunday, there are seven teams in the country still undefeated. KenPom, a far more reliable ranking system than the pollsters, has five of them in the top 20 (only Villanova cracks the Top 10!). The other two are South Carolina and USC, who are tied for the fewest number of wins among the unbeatens (8) and no one is really taking seriously. While USC is unlikely to fall at home Sunday night, their unbeaten record sure does have them overvalued as they host Pepperdine. This is a bit of a tricky spot for the Trojans as they've been off for the last week (last game was on 12.3) and won't play again until 12.17. Seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Take the points.

Pepperdine isn't likely to scare anyone being that they're currently riding a four-game losing streak, but the Waves can be competitive. They've proven that by cashing all four times they've been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the previous two seasons. They are about to enter a very tough stretch of games as Wednesday's loss at Long Beach State marked the beginning of a six-game road trip that will take them to the end of the year. Aside from a somewhat embarrassing loss to Portland State (at home) earlier this month, it's not like the Waves have been drastically underperforming expectations. This marks the sixth game in a row that they will be an underdog. They do hold a neutral site win over Ark-Little Rock back on 11.22.

The last time we saw USC, they beat BYU 91-84 at Staples Center. The game marked their first w/o starting forward Bennie Boatright, who will miss the next six weeks due to a knee injury. Boatright is a key loss as he averages 10.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. It should be pointed out that the Trojans lost the rebounding battle vs. BYU. Though BYU missed 18 of its 23 three-point attempts, they were still able to score 84 points, including 52 in the second half. So Pepperdine should have no issues scoring here and given the large pointspread, that's a winning combination as far as the betting window is concerned. The Waves are dealing w/ injuries as well, but have a 22 PPG scorer in Lamond Murray Jr. The team is shooting better than 40% from three-point range as well. 8* Pepperdine

10* California (10:30 ET): Since winning and covering their season opener, Cal has has its issues at the betting window. But help comes tonight in the form of UC Davis, a team outside the top 250 in the country. While Cal has struggled to cover games (2-7 ATS), they are 7-2 straight up, including a perfect 6-0 here in Berkeley. Off a loss to Seton Hall Wednesday (in Hawaii), I anticipate they'll be looking to blow the doors off UC Davis here and the Aggies should be pretty compliant given a 1-33 SU mark as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points. 

Cal did lead Seton Hall at the half Wednesday (34-31), but overall it was a poor shooting night, especially from three-point range where they were just 3 of 16. Cuonzo Martin's team entered the break having shot 52.4% overall from the field, so it was clearly the second half that cost them. Back at home, I imagine we'll see better shooting tonight. One thing that we can count on w/ the Bears is their defense, which is permitting just 60.0 PPG. Only one opponent, San Diego State, has topped 65 points against them this season. That's pretty impressive and thus you would expect that they would have covered more games. They did beat Princeton in the Pearl Harbor Invitational, holding them to only 51 points. This remains a top 50 team nationally.

UC Davis has been off for a week, but this will be their second consecutive road game. They lost at Idaho, 68-66 as 6.5-point dogs, last Saturday as that game was decided at the buzzer. They did win their only other road game to date, outright, as they upset Santa Clara 63-58 as 5.5-pt dogs back on November 12th. But this shapes up as the Aggies' most difficult game to date. Cal is very good at forcing teams to take tough two-point shots and UC Davis is shooting only 46.4% on two-point attempts this year, which ranks 250th nationally. The Aggies are below par on both ends of the floor compared to the national average an also have a propensity to turn the ball over way too much. Led by preseason All-American Ivan Rabb, Cal simply has too much height for this overmatched opponent and don't forget 7' junior center Kingsley Okorah. The Bears have been dealing w/ numerous injuries so far, which explains them falling short of the oddsmakers expectations, but head into this contests as healthy as they've been all season. For UC Davis, who has played 10 games total, this is their ninth on the road. 10* California

8* Michigan (8:00 ET): UCLA is one of eight remaining unbeaten teams in the country. Ironically, I don't think any of them, save for #1 Villanova, belong in the top 10! UCLA is currently ranked #2 by the pollsters, but I don't know of anyone besides them who thinks this is the second best team in the country. This will be the Bruins' first game since their upset of then-#1 Kentucky last Saturday and while a week can be a long time, I still view this as a letdown spot in Pauley Pavilion. Michigan has lost twice, but both times were as favorites and one of them was by just three points. The other was their first "true" road game (at South Carolina), but I believe John Beilein will have his Wolverines "ready to go" Saturday night in primetime.

Michigan is coming off a 53-50 win over Texas in Ann Arbor on Tuesday. They were 10-pt faves there, which shows how much the market was respecting them. Curiously, this Wolverines team is nowhere near as sharp-shooting as past Beilein editions. I can assure you this is not a misprint, but the Maize and Blue were an all-time horrific 19.2% from the floor against South Carolina, which explains that loss. They shot only 41.2% against Texas, which was their next lowest shooting percentage to date. The team is shooting just 34.9% from three-point range, which would be the lowest percentage for any Wolverines team since 2009-10. I expect these shooting numbers to drastically improve moving forward as almost 45% of their total attempts from the field are from behind the arc. Sooner rather than later, those shots will start to go down. 

Meanwhile, UCLA is due to regress as they're currently hitting an unsustainable 45.4% from three-point range. The win over Kentucky was not w/o some ugliness as Lonzo Ball was just 2 of 8 from behind the arc and committed five turnovers in the first half. With six straight covers, the last one being an outright win as 10.5-point pups, it's only natural for the oddsmakers to have the Bruins overvalued coming into this tilt. Michigan is dangerous as a dog, a role they have yet to find themselves this season, until now. 8* Michigan

10* Georgetown (2:00 ET): This game is being contested in Miami, FL as part of the Hoophall Invitational. For LaSalle, it's their second straight Big East opponent. In non-tourney action, they took on city (Philly) rival Villanova Tuesday and actually played the #1 team in the nation pretty tough, losing only 89-79 as 17.5-pt dogs. Coming off a high-profile game such as that, Georgetown may not have the Explorers' full attention and that could prove problematic. With a shaky ATS mark already, the Hoyas barely escaped Elon (won by 3) their last game. But that was on Sunday and I figure JTIII will have his team very focused for this neutral site affair. Lay the short number here.

Thus far, G'town has covered only one game, a 65-61 upset of Oregon (were +9) on 11.21. They've been big money-burners when favored, going 0-4 ATS including early season losses at home to both Maryland and Arkansas State. At one point, they stood at only 2-4 SU, but the team has since rattled off three consecutive victories. The disappointing records - SU and ATS - have led to a bit of a reevaluation in the marketplace and right now I believe it to be a great time to "buy low" on them. One thing that the Hoyas do well is defend the three-point line as opponents are shooting only 30.6% from distance against them this year. That's key facing a LaSalle squad that's currently making an unsustainable 41.6% from behind the arc.

LaSalle played Villanova very tough on Tuesday and you have to wonder what they'll have left in the tank here. A flurry of late three-pointers had them down only four, which was also the halftime deficit, late in the game. But the Explorers eventually wilted and lost by 10. While this team can certainly score, I'd be concerned about a defense which is permitting 80.4 PPG on 48.7% shooting. Opponents are making almost 40% of their three-point tries against LaSalle. Georgetown unexpectedly struggled in its last game on the glass, but w/ Isaac Copeland now back in the fold, I see them dominating that department here against the Explorers. The five days off should do the Hoyas some good and I'll point out that they've gone 31-2 straight up under Thompson vs. opponents giving up 77+ points per game. 10* Georgetown

8* Longwood (7:30 ET): Sure, Longwood is not even one of the top 325 teams in America? Do you even know what conference they hail from? (Answer: Big South). Do you even know their nickname>? (Answer: Lancers). The answers to those questions are actually quite irrelevant because this is just a horrible spot for still unbeaten Creighton. The Blue Jays are just two days removed from an in-state tussle w/ Nebraska where they clearly brought their 'A-Game.' Of course, Nebraska really did not as the 'Huskers shot just 32.4% from the floor in the 77-62 final (Creighton was favored by four). Will Longwood win this game? Obviously not. But this is an absolute boatload of points to take going against what should be a very disinterested favorite.

Longwood rarely plays a lined game, but they have one under their belt in 2016. As 18-point underdogs, they ended up covering @ SF Austin, losing by only six. Obviously this is a big step up in class here, but the Lancers have generally been competitive. Their only "bad" loss came by 22 at home to Maine, which was the season opener. They are coming off a loss to a previously winless James Madison team last Saturday, but I imagine the players will be very excited to take on this challenge. This is their first time playing a ranked opponent since Georgetown in 2012. They have three double-digit scorers, led by Darrion Allen (15.7 PPG). No matter how "outgunned" you may think Longwood is here, I guarantee they shoot the ball better than Nebraska did on Wednesday. The Cornhuskers missed 19 of 22 three-point attempts, for crying out loud!

Creighton has an eight-day break after this game, so don't be shocked if they're already peeking ahead to that. There has been only one time in the L3 seasons that the Blue Jays have been asked to lay more than 30 points at the betting window and not surprisingly, they failed to cover the spot. This is just an insane spread, regardless of matchup, and I keep coming back to the fact this is their second game in three days and clearly the less interesting of the two. Total letdown game for Creighton, who will not be interested in winning by the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. 8* Longwood

10* UT-Arlington (10:00 ET): The number of unbeatens in College Basketball was reduced to nine last night w/ both Butler & TCU losing. Of the nine remaining, #1 Villanova (defending Nat'l Champs) is clearly the strongest. After the Wildcats, we find a group of teams that likely fall between the 10th and 20th best teams in the country right now. One of them is St. Mary's. Unbeaten starts are nothing new for the Gaels; last year the team also started 6-0 SU. But then they lost their next game at Cal. For the record, it should be pointed out that SMU has played the fewest # of games of any remaining unbeaten. Tonight, they host a worthy adversary in UT-Arlington, who happens to be one of the top mid-majors in the country. Take the points.

The Mavericks of UT-Arlington are a formidable foe here as they have already won outright at Texas, as 7.5-pt underdogs, back on 11.29. The preseason choice to win the Sun Belt, UT Arlington has thrived in the underdog role through the years, going 44-22 ATS including 16-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Already they're 3-1 ATS this year w/ not only the outright win at Texas, but also at Fordham as well. They also covered a game at Arkansas. So don't look for the team to be intimidated at all by playing the #12 ranked team in the country. This is already the Mavs' seventh road game and the start of their third three-game trip. So they're battle tested. Be on the lookout for SBC Player of the Year Kevin Hervey, who is averaging 13.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.

While UT Arlington just played two nights ago and St. Mary's has been off since 11.30, I do not see that being a significant edge for the favorite here. It's not as if UT Arlington was tested on Tuesday; they won by 50 over a D-III school (Texas-Dallas). Also, don't be surprised if St. Mary's is perhaps a bit rusty coming off the week-plus break. This is just the second time in the last three seasons that they've had 7+ days off between games and they failed to cover in the only previous instance. While the Gaels have already beaten the likes of Dayton and Stanford, a case can be made that UT Arlington is on par w/ those teams. Yet they're getting a far more generous spread. 10* UT Arlington

8* Nebraska (9:00 ET): In-state bragging rights are on the line here and it's the bigger state school that finds itself in the role of home underdog for this one. While one could argue that this game "means more" to unbeaten Creighton, don't discount Nebraska's motivation in this one. Sure, the folks in Lincoln may still be more concerned with the Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee later this month. But for those inside Pinnacle Bank Arena tonight, this game looms large. Creighton is #10 in the nation and as I said earlier, still unbeaten (one of 11 remaining unbeatens in the country). The Blue Jays have had the Cornhuskers' number through the years, going 15-5 ATS, including B2B double digit wins. But I'm calling for a different end to the story tonight. Take the points. 

This will be Creighton's first "true" road game of the season. Granted, they don't have to go far, but it's still a hostile environment. I cannot possibly see the Bluejays' hot shooting continuing, at least at the current clip. They've shot 50% or better in every game so far and average 90.2 PPG. But the first true road game seems like a good spot for that average to dip and Nebraska is allowing only 62.5 PPG thus far, on 39.3 percent shooting. Here at home, the scoring average dips down to 53.5 PPG. Last year in Omaha, Creighton attempted 21 more free throws while the 'Huskers shot just 4 of 21 from downtown (three-point range) and that was the difference.

Nebraska has definitely challenged itself this year as they played UCLA, the current #2 team in the land, and Virginia Tech. Not to mention, they had to go to Clemson as a part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge and came up just two points short there. That's three top 40 opponents away from home thus far. Creighton did beat Wisconsin early in the year, but that's their only top 60 opponent to date. Shockingly, the Bluejays are only 7-18 SU in "true" road games the previous two seasons. 8* Nebraska

10* SMU (8:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball and four of them are in action tonight. Perhaps the weakest of those 11 is TCU, who is actually an underdog this evening at in-state rival SMU. Despite a 16-5 ATS record vs. the Ponies, the underdog distinction is absolutely justified here for the Horned Frogs. This is a team that hardly cracks the top 50 in most rating systems, including my own. They'll be playing a "true" road game for only the second time all year (won close over UNLV back on 11.25). SMU has won 37 of its past 40 home games overall and has taken on the far more challenging schedule to date compared to their Texas brethren. Lay the points in this one as TCU will be handed its first loss of the season.

SMU has started December w/ a pair of cupcake games, beating CS-Bakersfield and Delaware State here in Dallas. Against the former, they did not shoot the ball well at all, in fact they finished the game at just 31.8% from the field. But they allowed only 43 points on 29.8% shooting, then had far less difficulty w/ Delaware State on Sunday. This will obviously be a stiffer test tonight, but getting the game here at Moody Coliseum is huge. They've won 19 straight here over non-conference competition. Four different Mustangs are averaging double figures in scoring and this team also boasts the 6th best rebounding margin in the country. They did beat TCU LY in Ft. Worth, 75-70, albeit failing to cover as 6.5-pt chalk. But a shorter number at home seems like a real bargain to me.

I'm just not a buyer on this TCU team as they've yet to play anyone of real substance. Sure, they did beat Washington twice, but the Huskies hardly crack the top 90 teams nationally. Their toughest opponent to date may very well have been Illinois State. Meanwhile, SMU has taken on the likes of Pitt, Michigan, USC and Boise State, all away from home. Even w/ the win at UNLV, the Horned Frogs are still a lousy 3-18 SU last 21 "true" road games. We've seen similar starts from this program before, only for things to unravel once the conference portion of the schedule hits. Once again, TCU's weak non-conference slate isn't fooling me. 10* SMU

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Revenge alert! Ball State lost at Bradley last year, 54-53 as two-point favorites. As you can ascertain from that final score, it was a pretty miserable night shooting the ball for both teams. This year, the Cardinals get to play host and have the additional motivation of being of a loss, here at home no less. They fell Saturday to IUPUI, as six-point favorites, 73-62. As was the case w/ the play on Rider last night, I don't see our side dropping B2B home games. Bradley is also off a home loss here, theirs more severe, as they fell 91-69 to Nevada. The Braves have pulled off a few upsets this year, but not here. Lay the points. 

Ball State is actually just 1-2 SU here in Muncie, losing outright as the betting favorite twice. The first came to Indiana State back on November 15th. Then there was Saturday's setback. The lone home win for the Cardinals so far was against a non-D1 foe (Indiana-Kokomo). That being said, poor shooting was to blame for both home losses. I see the Cards shooting the ball better here against a Bradley team that just gave up 91 points on 55.6% shooting. Saturday's loss was a tough one for BSU as they led IUPUI 36-29 at halftime and led by 11 w/ 14:37 to go. They shot just 33.3% in the second half and scored only four points in the final four minutes. They were 3 of 10 from the FT line w/ only two of those attempts coming after halftime. Bottom line is the Cardinals know they let one slip away Saturday and should come out highly motivated.

Poor shooting was again the culprit in LY's loss at Bradley. Ironically, Bradley shot worse though. The Braves were held to 31.9% from the floor, including 5 of 20 from three-point range. But making nine more free throws than BSU did was the difference in a one-point game. Bradley's game Saturday vs. Nevada was a part of the Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley Challenge and saw the Braves fall behind by 20 at halftime. They never led in what was a very one-sided affair. Bradley has won just 3 of its last 25 "true" road games, one of those wins being an upset LW at Eastern Illinois. I wouldn't look for them to make it two in a row. 10* Ball State

10* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider didn't play its first home game until Thursday and they promptly lost it 76-67 as 3.5-point favorites to Fairfield. Tonight, they host a Siena team that beat Fairfield, 80-73 as 7.5-pt home favorites, just two days later. Thus, most will naturally favor the Saints in this MAAC battle, but not I as Rider has some revenge to exact here, plus Siena may be a little road-weary from playing its sixth "true" road game since November 15th. They're 0-5 SU so far, so I see no reason why they should be the favorite here, especially considering they've given up an average of 83.4 PPG in those five losses. Take the points.

Rider had no answer for Fairfield's Tyler Nelson, who went for 38 points last Thursday. Needless to say, it was a career night for Nelson as he made six three-pointers, all 10 free throws and was 11 of 20 from the field. While the Broncs did trail the entire second half, they had managed to close the gap to five before free throws put the game away. Meanwhile, Siena was able to beat the Stags in their MAAC opener as one of their players (Nico Clareth) had a career night w/ 33 points. Nelson scored only 23 for Fairfield this time. Note that the Saints actually gave away a 16-pt lead in the second half, allowing the Stags to score 16 straight points. Something to note here is Siena was only 9 of 19 from the free throw line and those kind of numbers can cost a team moving forward.

Siena won both matchups LY and has beaten Rider three straight times overall. The Broncs were embarrassed last year here in Lawrenceville, losing by 20, and given that they just dropped the home opener, I expect a real emphasis placed on the result here. I was impressed that Rider was able to win three of five on the road to start the year and they should be the fresher team here, not just because they've had two additional days to prepare, but also due to the fact they've played two fewer games overall. The Broncs are also a strong 14-3 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points.  10* Rider

10* Coll of Charleston (4:00 ET): Davidson rolls into Charleston pretty hot as the Wildcats have won (and covered) four straight following a 78-57 beatdown of Mercer on Tuesday, their first "true" road tilt of the season. The lone loss on the resume of Bob McKillop's team was to Clemson, back in the second game of the season where they allowed 95 points. Meanwhile, Charleston has responded well after losing three straight, posting B2B wins over USC Upstate and Navy. Two of those three losses did take place at home (other at Villanova), but the Cougars are getting a few too many points, in my opinion, to pass up on here. It looks as if the line is climbing as well, so you may even want to wait a little bit before playing! Take the points.

This is a double revenge spot for the home team as they've lost each of the last two seasons to Davidson, including by one on the road in 2015. They were 15-point road dogs LY. This was an old conference rivalry before Davidson ditched the SoCon for greener pastures. Last year's game featured a total of 19 lead changes and 11 ties and was a brutal defeat for the Cougars, who led 81-76 late (under 4 minutes to play), but allowed the Wildcats to score the game's final six points. So, what I'm saying is that motivation will not be lacking from the home side here.

While I am a bit worried about Charleston and its shooting percentage going up against a Davidson team that's allowed it's six opponents to shoot only 37% from the field, the Cougars will not be intimidated here considering they've already faced the likes of Wake Forest and, both of whom are bigger and more athletic than Davidson. I think that Charleston is deserving of more respect than Mercer was and given the virtually identical lines, that doesn't seem to be the case. Granted, an adjustment had to be made after Davidson blew Mercer out, but I think the oddsmakers and now public are overreacting. 10* Coll of Charleston

10* Maryland (9:00 ET): The Terps were embarrassed earlier this week, losing 73-59 to Pitt here in College Park. I went against them in what was their first loss of the season. They have yet to cover a spread here at home (0-3 ATS), but tonight they're not getting any respect against fellow 1-loss team Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are playing their first "true" road game of the year and considering they lost to Maryland by nine last year in Stillwater (as 9-pt favorites), I do not see them getting the job done here.

It was an awful first half vs. Pitt on Tuesday. I was quite happy to look at the scores and see Maryland down 45-24 at the break as the likelihood they'd come back from that kind of deficit, let alone cover as a favorite, was quite minimal. But I did like how the Terps fought back to cut that deficit to eight. They held Pitt to 26 percent shooting in the second half after allowing them to convert at a 61% clip in the first half. I think that considering this was an unbeaten team entering the week, this is a pretty extraordinary price on Maryland here at home. I realize that I was quite dismissive of the Terps' unbeaten start in my analysis of the Pitt game, but this is a great value. I have the Pokes and Pitt rated fairly evenly, so the market has overadjusted here. 

OSU has given up at least 85 points in four of their seven games. That includes games vs. Central Arkansas and Rogers State. Many will point to the fact the Cowboys destroyed a Georgetown team (by 27) that Maryland only beat by a single point. But, I'm not sure that matters. Besides, it was a "true" road win for the Terps over the Hoyas. OSU isn't going to be able to simply outscore Maryland, like they did to some of the lesser teams on the schedule, and they are just 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of three points or less or a pick em. Consider that each of the Cowboys last three opponents have shot 51% or better and even Rogers State was at 56.9%, unfathomable given the talent discrepancy. Maryland will bounce back big-time offensively here. 10* Maryland

8* Georgia Tech (1:00 ET): The Yellow Jackets are off just their second loss of the year. The final score at Penn State Tuesday was remarkably similar to their first loss, which took place back on 11.18 at home vs. Ohio U. They fell 67-60 in Happy Valley, as six point underdogs. (They were 3.5-pt home dogs in the 67-61 loss to Ohio). I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm" for GT getting points as that's the scenario Saturday afternoon in Knoxville against Tennessee. The Vols have not played since Maui, a tournament which ended before Thanksgiving. They've played just five games overall and their lone win on the Island was against the host, D-II Chaminade. Their only other win this year was a wild 103-94 affair vs. Appalachian State. I believe the better team is getting points here.

Georgia Tech shot just 36.4% against Penn State, yet was able to stay in the game virtually throughout. It was a two-point game w/ just two minutes to go. Three-point shooting (7 of 16) was able to keep them in the game. Getting to the free throw line only seven times didn't help. Not coincidentally, the Yellow Jackets' worst two shooting games of the year are also their two losses. With Tennessee giving up an average of 80 PPG thus far, I feel the Jackets should be able to put plenty of points on the board today.

The three-point line could be huge here. I already mentioned that Georgia Tech was pretty sharp from distance last time out. Well, they also defended the arc well (Penn State missed 11 of 15 attempts). Meanwhile, Tennessee is not shooting the ball well from long range. They are at just 29% for the year, including 25.7% for the year. Therefore, it's odd that they've been able to still score so many as this is a relatively small team. Overall, the Vols are just 8-23 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons and 10-22 ATS in home games. They lost to Georgia Tech LY in Atlanta, by two, as seven-point underdogs. The line has shifted significantly in one year's time, too much I believe. Take the points. 8* Georgia Tech

10* Cal Poly (11:00 ET):  TX-San Antonio is not a good team at all; they currently rank outside of the top 300 in most projection systems. So the fact they are off a win, as five-point dogs no less, can be used against them here. Even if it means a half-hearted endorsement of a Cal Poly team I just went AGAINST not that long ago. Granted, the Mustangs sit outside the top 250 themselves and are off an unsuccessful stint in DeKalb for Northern Illinois' Thanksgiving Classic Tournament. But returning home, laying a relatively short number, should not be an issue against this weak opponent. While this is the first D-I opponent they've played in their gym, the Mustangs are 2-0 SU at home so far w/ both wins coming by double digits.

The game that I went against Cal Poly was last Friday vs. Illiniois-Chicago as they were actually four-point favorites at a neutral site and ended up losing 84-71. Note that came on the heels of upsetting the tournament host (as 10-pt underdogs), two days earlier. The Mustangs did not shoot the ball well against UIC (only 38.5%) and fell into a rather sizable halftime hole that they could not climb out of. In fact, they missed 23 of 31 field goal attempts in the first half. Things were better the following day against Elon, where the Mustangs in fact had a slight halftime advantage. But attempting 14 less free throws for the game proved to be a difference maker there and helped turn a game that was tied w/ a little over four minutes remaining into a six-point loss. Still though, Cal Poly actually covered the closing line (+6.5).

After allowing 52% shooting in the last two games, Cal Poly's defense should be a lot better here. I say that knowing full well that TX-San Antonio is shooting a woeful 37.4% from the field for the year, including 25.5% from three-point range. The Roadrunners have shot better than 40% in only one game all year (Prairie View A&M) and in their two wins were the beneficiaries of opponents shooting the ball even more dreadfully. One was the Prairie View A&M game (31.5%) and then last Friday, Texas State finished at just 30.0% on ALL field goal attempts (scored just 48 points). The Roadrunners are just 1-6 SU following a game where they allowed 60 or less points. 10* Cal Poly

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Following last night's proceedings, we're down to only 19 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops. Three went down yday: Maryland (who I faded), Houston and Tennessee State. More of these teams are likely (guaranteed) to fall in the coming days and tonight I'm targeting Rutgers, who seems like the surest of the bunch to go down. Not only are the Scarlet Knights the second weakest of those 19 remaining unbeatens (only Texas A&M-CC weaker), they are huge underdogs tonight at Miami. But I don't think the spread is large enough as the 'Canes should absolutely roll Wednesday night as they return home smarting off B2B losses. Lay the points.

Though Miami is not in the Top 25, I believe them to be worthy of discussion for being ranked. Yes, they did just lose to Iowa State and Florida in the Advocare Invitational, but those are both worthy adversaries. Poor shooting, not to mention turnovers, cost them in both contests. They shot just 37.7 percent from the floor against Florida and 36.0 percent vs. ISU. There were a combined 32 turnovers. I envision the shooting will improve tonight and the number of turnovers will come down. This will be just the third "true" home game for Jim Laranaga's team. They did beat a good Stanford team in their first game in Lake Buena Vista. Defensively, I see no issues as the team ranks 28th in FG% defense (37.4) and 12th in scoring (58.7 PPG). 

Tip your cap to this start from Rutgers as the program has not had a winning season since 2005-06. They went 7-25 SU last year, including a horrendous 1-17 mark in the Big 10. But before we go anointing the Scarlet Knights anything that they are not, let's note they have yet to play anyone of any real substance these first six games. They're off a narrow, two-point win over Hartford where the GW basket was scored w/ just six seconds remaining. My guess is that had that result gone the other way (which it easily could have), then this line would be much higher and basically where it SHOULD be. In fact, the Scarlet Knights actually trailed Hartford at one point by as many as 13 pts in the second half! This team does not shoot the ball well at all (just 43%) and has been fortunate to get bailed out by an unsustainable rebounding rate. They won't have that here and you have to figure the shooting woes will continue against a strong defensive foe like Miami. 8* Miami

10* Marshall (7:00 ET): It's yet another unbeaten that I'm targeting on Wednesday, this one happening to be Ohio University. The Bobcats are 4-0 SU, easily the fewest wins of any of the 19 remaining unbeaten teams in the land, and hardly crack my own top 100. The do have a win over Georgia Tech, on the road no less, but tonight I don't see them having that kind of success in Huntington, WV where Marshall awaits, looking to exact revenge from an 85-70 loss in Athens LY. The Thundering Herd also are off their first defeat of 2016, that coming at the hands of Ohio State on Friday, 111-70. After suffering that kind of blowout and already looking for revenge, I look for the Herd to come out highly motivated this evening.

When these teams met last season, Ohio enjoyed a sizable edge in free throw attempts (+20!) and w/ 12 more makes than Marshall, that was essentially responsible for the final margin. It should also be pointed out that the Bobcats shot the ball quite well (50.8%). But it's a little concerning to see that they were at only 37.3% from the field against Tennessee Tech on Friday, a game they failed to cover as 16.5-point chalk. It should also be pointed out that OU was 11.5-point favorites last season, so Marshall has obviously improved. The Thundering Herd are likely to do better than 22.7% shooting from three-point range (5-22) now that they're at home.

Both teams defend the three-pointer well, but Marshall does it better. Opponents are shooting just 28.6% from behind the arc against them this year and that's after Ohio State's blistering performance on Friday. Meanwhile, it's really just one game helping Ohio's three-point FG% defense, that being the upset of Georgia Tech (youngest team in the country!) where the Yellow Jackets were a dreadful 3 of 11. Kenny Kaminski made five three-pointers in that game, but his status is listed as questionable for tonight due to a shoulder injury. That looms large. Meanwhile, Marshall gets back starter Ryan Taylor after the one-game suspension vs. Ohio State. That suspension was actually HC Dan D'Antoni's decision due to Taylor getting ejected from the team's 71-61 win over Jackson State. I like Marshall in this one. 10* Marshall

10* Illinois (9:00 ET): Though I'm not feeling too good about the Big 10's overall prospects in this year's "Challenge" vs. the ACC, here's a game where I feel the conference can "steal one." Granted, John Groce's Fighting Illini come into this one having not covered a single game in 2016. But, even after three consecutive losses, I like this line a lot. NC State is off a real nailbiter, 79-77 over Loyola IL, which was their second two-point victory of this campaign already. The first came in the opener against Georgia Southern. The Wolfpack were double digit favorites in both of those games, so imagine what is likely to ensue in a matchup perceived to be far more even by the oddsmakers. Take the points.

A Thanksgiving trip to Brooklyn did not go well for Illinois, but they also had to take on pair of ranked teams in consecutive nights. The first was West Virginia and they were humiliated there, 89-57. Friday saw them go down by double digits again, this time "only" 72-61, at Florida State's expense. That was actually a tie game w/ less than 10 minutes to play, so don't let the final score mislead you. As uninspiring as those results may be, NC State will absolutely be a drop in class for the Fighting Illini in terms of opponent and I imagine Groce will have his team highly motivated as they return home off three consecutive losses. Over the past two seasons, the Illini are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS when taking the court on a three-game losing streak.

NC State is still w/o Maverick Rowan (concussion) as tonight will be the fifth consecutive game that he's missed. This is in addition to another player,  Omer Yurtseven, being suspended for the first nine games of the season. Note that it was not easy for the Wolfpack on Saturday against Loyola IL as they fell behind by double digits in the first half. Granted, the Ramblers were red-hit from three-point range (58.8%), but that probably shouldn't have happened in Raleigh. Now they play a "true" road game for the first time all year. I look for Malcolm Hill to play better for Illinois tonight as the team avoids what would be a second straight loss to an ACC opponent. 10* Illinois

8* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Early returns have indicated that this year's ACC vs. Big 10 Challenge may end up a fairly one-sided affair in favor of the former.  Now, you wouldn't deduce that judging from last night's 1-1 split, but rather the body of work that lies outside the official "Challenge" where ACC teams rocked their Big 10 counterparts in a number of early season matchups. The ACC has not won this event since 2008, but already is 7-1 head to head vs. the Big 10 in 2016! Interesting is that of the 22 teams still w/o a loss nationally, six will be participating in this event. That should make for some interesting fade opportunities, including this one w/ 7-0 Maryland, who will get perhaps their stiffest test to date w/ a visit from Pittsburgh. Take the points.

The Terps may be unbeaten, but this has the "feel" of a pretty even matchup. Pitt has lost only one time, to SMU at a neutral site. I think that a big key here is the fact Maryland is coming off a much tougher weekend and may have less "in the tank." While Pitt made 11 three-pointers in a 76-63 win over Morehead State on Friday, Maryland had to play close games w/ both Richmond and Kansas State Friday & Saturday in Brooklyn. The 69-68 win over Kansas State, as three-point underdogs, saw Melo Trimble make a layup w/ 6.9 seconds remaining to give the Terps the win. It was the team's second upset of the year already as early in the campaign, they went to Georgetown and won 76-75 as 6.5-pt dogs, a game that the Hoyas basically gave away and was again won by Trimble in the final seconds w/ a pair of free throws. 

So that's two last second, one-point victories for Maryland in seven games, which is pretty fortunate. In fact, they already have five wins by six points or less! That includes home games against American and Towson State. Teams are going to start shooting better from three-point range against the Terps than they have been thus far (28.7%). Earlier, if you recall, I mentioned the fact that Pitt sank 11 three-pointers in their last game. They come in averaging 81.3 PPG overall. With the spread being so short, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this ends up being an outright win by the dog. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Butler (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes to the discrepancy between the the two teams that Butler comes in favored here in Salt Lake City. To me, the Bulldogs are a Top 25 team. But I can't say the same for the host Utes, even though they too are still undefeated. Butler has raced out to a 6-0 SU start, including wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona on consecutive nights (Thurs and Fri) over Thanksgiving Night. This marks their first "true" road game, but the Bulldogs also represent Utah's first "real" competition. The Utes' 4-0 SU start includes wins over the likes of NW Nazarene, Concordia, Coppin State and UC-Riverside. The two D-I opponents both rank outside my top 250 w/ 0-7 Coppin State being one of the worst teams in the entire country. Butler is both better overall and more battle-tested. Lay the short number.

With six new players on the roster, many though this would be a rebuilding year for Butler. Think again? They proved they are for real by beating the #8 ranked team in the land (Arizona) Friday in Las Vegas. It's not like that win surprised the oddsmakers; the Bulldogs actually came in as the slight favorite! Again, I feel this is one of the 20 best teams in the country right now. While shooting the ball at a 50% clip themselves, including 38.5% from three-point range, Butler is holding its opponents to just 41.3% from the field. By the way, they've also now covered 22 of the last 32 non-conference games! Already, they have three wins over Power 5 teams (N'western, Vandy, Arizona). 

All we really know about Utah at this point is they are tall. The schedule thus far has been ranked as the easiest in all of Division I! Like Butler, there's been a lot of roster turnover from last year. The fact the Utes have won 32 straight at home vs. non-conference foes should be respected, but again this line "speaks for itself." Butler probably will be in the Top 25 by tipoff and I see them staying there. 8* Butler

10* Stanford (7:00 ET): This is the final day of the Advocare Invitational as Stanford and Seton Hall play a consolation game. Both teams lost in the first day of the event, Stanford to Miami FL and Seton Hall to Florida. Each bounced back yday. Stanford beat Indiana State 65-62, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. Seton Hall took on Quinnipiac and while they won 90-79, the too failed to cover (as lofty 22-point favorites). You may recall from a play earlier this year that I've identified the Cardinal as a 'play on' team for 2016. Meanwhile, as you may also recall, I just played against Seton Hall vs. Florida, citing the Pirates' ATS record from last season as a driving force to fade them more often than not this season. Take the points.

Things started well this year for Stanford as they opened 4-0 SU, covering their first three lined games. I had them in the opener against Harvard, a game they won 80-70 as 3.5-point favorites. They followed that w/ dominating wins over CS-Northridge and Weber State. A 16-point spread proved to be too much against Colorado State, though they still won SU, 56-49. Poor shooting has hurt them here in Lake Buena Vista though. Against Miami, things started well w/ a nine-point first half lead. But after going into the break up by just four, they allowed Miami to shoot a ridiculous 62.5% after halftime. Stanford shot just 41.2% and was actually worse against Indiana State (36.5%) despite winning that one. It took a massive edge at the free throw line and a last second three to pull out the 65-62 win Friday, but I still liked what I saw enough to endorse the Cardinal here. 

Seton Hall, unlike Stanford, has shot the ball well this season. The one exception though was the game I went against them. They made only 42.9% from the floor against Florida, scoring a season-low 76 points. But while the Pirates can score, can they play defense? They've allowed an average of 81 points the L3 games, so as a favorite it's going to be tough to cover. While they were 22-10-1 at the betting window last year, Seton Hall is just 1-3 ATS this year, the lone cover being the upset at Iowa. Bad news (for them) is that Pirates starting forward Ismael Sanogo is a game-time decision due to a shoulder issue. Defensively, the Cardinal are the much better team here as they hold teams to just 36.9% shooting overall, including 26.7% from three-point range. 10* Stanford

8* Fordham (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is 3-3 SU so far and the results have essentially gone "according to script." Their three wins have all been against non-lined opponents - TX Southern, St. Francis-IL and Mount St. Mary's - while their three losses all came on the road, to Minnesota, Florida Gulf Coast and Arkansas. Here, they have opened as a slight favorite for another three-game trip, which begins in Fordham. The Rams lost their only road game so far, the season opener, 96-59 at East Tennessee State. But they've bounced back with five consecutive home wins, including routs of their only two lined opponents - Rider and St. Peter's. So I see some value in them only needing a SU win this afternoon.

This is also a revenge spot for Fordham, who lost 77-72 (+3) at UT Arlington in the season opener last year. Despite shooting the ball better overall, including from three-point range, the Rams still lost by 5. The key was they only got to the free throw line six times. While they converted every opportunity from the charity stripe, it wasn't enough even w/ UT Arlington shooting only 57.1% there. That's because the Mavericks got to the line 21 times and their six extra makes were essentially the difference. I do not expect that discrepancy to exist today and if it does, it will be in favor of the Rams. Also, the teams both attempt about 21 FT's per game. Fordham is shooting 77% there while UT Arlington is 58.4%.

The Rams have won 16 straight at home against non-conference competition, so you can see why this can be perceived as a great value. Defensively, this team seems to be much improved this year. While the class of opponent can be called into question, they've allowed an average of just 55.8 points the L4 games. Forcing turnovers has been huge as they are averaging over 11 steals per game. On both ends of the floor, Joseph Chartouny has led the way as he's averaged better than four steals per game during these L4 games while on the offensive end he's averaging 16.2 PPG on 56% shooting. Meanwhile, UT Arlington will likely be unable to continue its recent hot shooting from the L2 games (53.4 FG%), here on the road. 8* Fordham

10* Illinois-Chicago (4:30 ET): This is the second game for both teams and of the day in the NIU Showcase (Northern Illinois), played here in DeKalb. Obviously, one stands to reason that UIC would have the edge in whatever crowd support is present Friday afternoon. But Cal Poly did just beat the host team of this event, 68-64 as 10-pt underdogs, Wednesday night. However, for that very reason, I'm calling for a letdown here from the Mustangs, who now curiously find themselves in the role of favorite for this second game here. UIC, meanwhile, looks to atone for a 91-80 loss suffered against Elon. The Flames have scored 80+ points in every game so far, making them the proverbial "tough out" taking points.

Interestingly, Cal Poly had dropped its first two "true" road games of the campaign, losing at both Pepperdine and Arizona State by a combined 31 points. Wins over non-lined foes Cat St. Dom Hills and Bethesda weren't enough to impress me, so I actually faded them Wednesday vs. Northern Illinois. That obviously turned out to be a mistake as the Mustangs shot 51.1% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range, which was probably the difference in the game. After leading for much of the first half, Cal Poly wound up falling behind by six with just over eight minutes remaining in the game and it was looking as if I might have a shot at the cover. But, the Mustangs were able to mount an impressive rally from there and instead take the game outright. Note that they are just 9-14 ATS in the favorite role the past two seasons.

UIC is 2-2 SU on the young season. Besides what happened Wednesday, their only other loss came by two points out in San Francisco. Overall, the Flames have shot the ball quite well thus far. They're at 47.7% from the floor. But they've struggled from beyond the arc, connecting at only 28.2%. Assuming Cal Poly "cools off" from outside (compared to their last game) and UIC has a modicum of improvement in that department, there's your difference maker right there. I just can't see Cal Poly winning B2B games out here in the "Land of Lincoln," so an outright upset is a distinct possibility here. 10* Illinois-Chicago

10* Florida (8:30 ET): It's certainly been an interesting start to the season for Florida. They've yet to play an actual home game as the O'Connell Center is still being renovated. This hasn't seemed to bother them though as they've opened the year w/ four consecutive wins at neutral sites, the most recent being a 78-61 triumph over Belmont on Monday. It was their third double digit victory of the young season so far. Tonight, a much closer game is expected against Seton Hall as part of the Advocare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista. The Pirates arrive in the Sunshine State fresh off a minor upset of an Iowa (in Iowa City!) and while I can see why a lot of people are calling for the same thing here, the value is on the Gators. Lay the short number.

It's not like Florida has had to venture far this season. The first two games of the season were played in nearby Jacksonville and neither Florida Gulf Coast nor Mercer proved to be much competition. St. Bonaventure was able to hang tough in Lakeland last Thursday, but as mentioned above, Belmont was no match in Tampa earlier this week. I feel that the fact the Gators have to play their first 11 games all outside of Gainesville will benefit them greatly. While not ranked, I certainly feel Mike White's team is making a strong case and should be favored by more in its home state. A great sign for the Gators thus far is their free throw shooting is much improved from last year when they ranked 323rd (out of 346) nationally. This year, they are up to 75.2% from the charity stripe and that's proven to be a big edge for them so far (more on that in a bit).

Seton Hall has shot the lights out in their first three games at 54.2% overall. But here they'll be running into a team that has limited its opponents to a 38.4% shooting thus far and only 60 points per game. Free throw shooting can decide games and this year it looks to be a problem for Seton Hall, who is only at 56.6%, barely higher than their overall field goal percentage! Florida has really benefited thus far from poor opponent FT shooting (57.8%), so could that trend continue? Speaking of trends, Seton Hall is due to regress after posting one of the better ATS records in the country last year. The Pirates could come out flat after being off for a week. 10* Florida

10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): After losing for the first time, I like the Huskies' chances of getting back on track tonight in DeKalb. Saturday, they lost by two out at Cal State Northridge (covered as 2.5-pt dogs), but here it's a West Coast team having to make the trip to their gym. All things considered, it's been an impressive start for Northern Illinois as they've won all three home games, including one against Indiana State. Can't say the same for Cal Poly-SLO, however, as the Mustangs lost and failed to cover their first two road games, at Pepperdine and Arizona State. Back to back home wins over the likes of Cal St Dom Hills and Bethesda aren't going to change my view of this team whatsoever. Lay the points.

This is NIU's own tournament, so you'd naturally expect them to play well. Elon and IL-Chicago are also in DeKalb this week and will be the next two opponents for both teams with three games played over a four-day span (no games tomorrow). Yes, I did play against Northern Illinois on Saturday in that trip to CS-Northridge. I was lucky enough to escape with a push (bet the game at -2), but the reality is even that was quite the fortunate result. One could reasonably conclude that the Huskies would have won that game were it not for a massive shooting disparity that saw them make only 34.1% of their FG attempts while CS-Northridge was 51.9%. Both teams actually made the same number of field goals (28), but NIU had 82 attempts to 54 for CSN! If just two of those extra 28 shots would have gone down, they would have won!

A big reason that I went against Northern Illinois in that spot was they were on the road and their opponent had revenge. Neither of those situations are present tonight. The Huskies have won 31 of their past 37 home games and are 14-1 SU (10-3 ATS) after scoring 80+ Points the previous game. In the first three games in DeKalb, they averaged 80.7 PPG. Meanwhile, Cal Poly is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games and allowed both Pepperdine and Arizona State to shoot better than 50% from the field earlier in the year. If NIU can get off anywhere near the number of shots they did at Cal-State Northridge, they'll win this one easily. 10* Northern Illinois

8* James Madison (4:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Dukes of JMU. I should know as I played against them 10 days ago, when as a 6-point favorite, they lost outright to Rice 94-70! They're now 0-4 following losses to Montana State and Texas Southern. Therefore, it may seem curious that the oddsmakers would favor them here, but that probably speaks to how bad UL Lafayette is. The Ragin Cajuns dropped their first two games, both on the road, one at Montana State as well. They've since "bounced back" w/ B2B wins at home, but both came against non-lined opponents, OK Panhandle State and Delaware State. Monday's win over Delaware State came only by a single point. Lay the points here.

James Madison did not shoot the ball well vs. Texas Southern and that's putting it mildly. They shot only 18 of 50 (35%) overall from the floor, including a dreadful 5 of 21 from three-point range. It was their second straight bad shooting night as they were just 30.4% overall at Montana State! Ironically, their best shooting game of the young season came in their most lopsided loss, the aforementioned game against Rice. That one was at least at home, so that's something to lean on. I see the offense increasing tonight against a LA Lafayette team that has already given up 82+ points in three games this season. Meanwhile, in the Ragin Cajuns first two road games, they too were below 37% shooting.

A big issue for JMU to this point has been the status of Ramone Snowden and Vince Holmes, two key transfers that were expected to contribute immediately. However, both were quickly suspended for violating team rules. Holmes has yet to play in a game. Snowden, who comes by way of Niagara, has played in every game but is struggling to find his shot (30% FG). I look for Snowden to break out here. Winless and off a game where a comeback effort fell short, I'm expecting to see some fire from JMU here in what will be their last home game before December 20th! There's a sense of urgency in Richmond right now that the visitors will be unable to match tonight. 8* James Madison

8* Indiana (9:00 ET): This will be my second time playing against IPFW this year and the reason here will be, generally speaking, the same as the first. Unbeknownst to many, the Mastadons were the top ATS team in the country last year. That's going by percentage at least as they were 21-8 at the pay window. No team that played at least seven games LY covered at that high of a percentage (almost 75%). Therefore, I've stipulated that regression is coming for 2016-17. After IPFW covered the spread in the season opener, losing 92-83 at Arkansas (but as 15-pt dogs), I target them for a fade last Wednesday and they got hammered by Illinois State, 75-57 (getting only 6.5). I've got no problem laying points here w/ an even better team.

This is a rare early season road date, but obviously they won't be going far. It's their only scheduled "true" road game of the non-conference slate. Having won by nearly 40 pts on Saturday (against Liberty) and w/ the next game not until Sunday, the Mastadons should have the Hoosiers' full attention here. Already, IU has recorded one impressive win as they beat Kansas in the season opener, 103-99 as six-point dogs. Tom Crean typically fields an offensive juggernaut and this year appears to be no different. Through three games, the team is averaging 96.7 PPG. Yes, overtime was needed to beat Kansas, but even then the Hoosiers scored 89 pts in regulation.

One of the games IPFW failed to cover last year was against Indiana. Playing in Bloomington, they lost 90-65 as 20-pt dogs. I don't think that the linesmakers have shifted enough to represent the growing discrepancy between the two programs for this year. Indiana is now ranked #3 in the country. As mentioned earlier, they just destroyed Liberty, holding the Flames to 29.7% shooting from the floor and forcing 26 turnovers. The Hoosiers dominated the rebounding battle and shot better than 60% themselves. It may not be that dominant this go around, but it doesn't have to be. 8* Indiana

8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU, but have yet to cover the spread a single time (0-3 ATS). Wins over Navy, NC Central and Providence have all been by 10 pts or less. Therefore, on the surface, it may not seem like a good idea to lay this monster number tonight as Western Carolina pays a visit. But the Catamounts are prime material to get routed seeing as they've already fallen by more than this spread twice this season and this will be their second road game in three days. The first resulted in a 35-point loss at Marshall (were +16 there). They've also lost at Miami FL by 49, in the season opener (were +22.5 there). Lay the points.

This game is a part of the non-bracketed, Global Sports Invitational. The two sides have already played one common opponent, that being NC Central. While the Buckeyes certainly could have been a lot more impressive against the Eagles, they still won 69-63 here in Columbus, last Monday (were -24). Meanwhile, Western Carolina lost to them at home, 67-59, in a non-lined affair. "I didn't like a whole lot of what I saw tonight," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said in reference to his team's win over NC Central. Matta would go on to say, "We weren't physically and mentally very tough. Obviously, we have to get that corrected." Fortunately for Matta, his team looked a lot better in Thursday's 72-67 win over Providence, though the MOV was no greater. But OSU did dominate in terms of shooting the basketball, 50 percent to 35.4.

Western Carolina scored only 59 pts against NC Central and has been even more inept offensively on the road, scoring just 53 PPG in road losses to Miami and Marshall. Even worse, they've shot below 30 percent in those two losses. I just don't see the issues being corrected here. The Buckeyes have been one of the more dominant home teams in the country under Matta, posting the most home wins of any D-I team at home since 2007-08 w/ 124. JaQuan Lyle had a monster game vs. Providence, registering 21 pts, eight rebounds and seven assists. 8* Ohio State

10* Georgia (7:00 ET): This game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri and is a semifinal matchup in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. After losing the season opener, 74-64 at Clemson, the Bulldogs have bounced back to post B2B victories in this event, beating UNC-Asheville and Furman. While both games were closer than the 'Dawgs would have liked, I'm still impressed enough by what I saw. Remember that this is a program that has won 20+ games each of the L3 seasons under HC Mark Fox. As for George Washington, they arrive in KC at 3-0 SU, but were hardly impressive in narrow wins over MD-Eastern Shore or Siena (both decided by four points or less). In their last game, the Colonials were fortunate that Ark Pine Bluff shot a woeful 26.7% from the floor (GW was at 35.6%).

It was a different kind of game last time out for UGA as they had to deal w/ Furman shooting the ball at a 50% clip on Thursday. What kept the Paladins in the game was a 10 of 21 mark from three-point range (UGA was just 5 of 18). But while the 'Dawgs may have struggled from distance, they dominated on the interior, going 23 of 35 on two-point attempts. Yante Maten and JJ Frazier again carried the scoring load w/ a combined 55 points. Over the L3 seasons, this team is 9-4 ATS coming off a game where it scored 80+ points. Also of interest is they don't get upset much; their SU record when priced as the favorite is an impressive 31-6 SU.

George Washington won the NIT last year, but has far less experience on this year's squad w/ eight underclassmen suiting up. Contrast that w/ Georgia, who figures to be a threat in the better SEC. Again, GW struggled to get by MD-Eastern Shore in its opener (despite a massive +20 edge in attempts at the FT line) and then was back and forth virtually the whole way w/ Siena at home last Tuesday. The Colonials won't have the same edges on the interior here as they did against the Saints, nor will Georgia shoot the ball as poorly as Arkansas Pine Bluff did on Thursday. Neither team has shot the ball particularly well from three-point range, but I'll point to the fact that Georgia has more overall talent and GW is just 2-8 ATS its L10 games vs. the SEC. 10* Georgia

8* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): UCLA is 3-0 and played three home games against overmatched foes. Not surprisingly, Pacific, CS-Northridge and San Diego all fell by the wayside by double digit margins. Tonight, they host a Long Beach State team whose record is unfair as they've certainly been unafraid to step up and take on strong competition. That's been the hallmark under Dan Monson, but this year has taken things to a whole new level. The 49ers have played Wichita State, North Carolina and Louisville in the L3 games and due to some uncharacteristically poor shooting, all three went really poorly. But I look for a bounce back here and I'm taking the points.

Playing a fourth straight top foe on the road and third ranked opponent in less than five days seems like a really tough spot. But Monson should have his team ready. They've shot just 31.2%, 36.4% and 29.5% those L3 games and I cannot state enough how they're almost certain to top those percentages tonight. UCLA is allowed 80 and 87 pts its first two games. Also, bad defense has hurt the 49ers. Both Wichita State and North Carolina shot better than 55% against them. Again, those numbers are a virtual lock to come down. This perennial Big West power is better than its shown thus far and is due for a competitive game. They've played UCLA tough each of the last two years, losing by only 7 and 14 pts.

While UCLA is getting at least 14 PPG from five different players, they will not be able to keep that up. Four players on the roster are dealing w/ injuries right now. It should be pointed out that they failed to cover against both CS-Northridge and San Diego. In games with high totals such as this, these teams have experienced very different results. If the total is 160 to 169.5, UCLA is 0-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, LBSU is 11-2 ATS L13, 5-0 if away from home. They are also 10-4 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. This is a bounce back spot for the underdog and a great spot to fade an overvalued favorite. 8* Long Beach State