10* Alabama State (9:00 ET): I’ve won by going against Mississippi Valley State before and now seems like a good time to do it again. The Delta Devils, just 1-21 SU on the season, have surprisingly covered three in a row. That’s their longest ATS win streak of the season. They didn’t win any of the games, mind you, but lost to Jackson State by four, Alcorn State by eight and Alabama A&M by two. Their chances of staying close for a fourth straight game seem remote, given how the season has gone for them. 

Alabama State is coming off back to back losses and will be looking to rebound from getting upset 75-70 (as eight-point favorites) Saturday by Arkansas Pine-Bluff. The big difference in that game was Alabama State’s inability to take advantage of the fact they had eight more free throw attempts. Despite the B2B losses, the Hornets remain tied for second place in the SWAC’s Eastern Division. A strong close to the regular season means improved seeding for the conference tournament and this is a must win.

Alabama State won the first meeting, 84-75, thanks to shooting 53.7% from the floor. MVSU is just a disaster defensively as they give up almost 90 PPG on the road while averaging just 63.4 themselves. I have them rated as the worst team in the country. Their last game went to FOUR overtimes and that was on Saturday, so there has to be a sense of fatigue here. Lay the points. 10* Alabama State

8* William & Mary (2:00 ET): Save for Providence, I’m not sure there’s been a “luckier” team in College Basketball this season than UNC Wilmington. The current CAA leaders have been an underdog more times than they have been favored and are 9-2-1 ATS when getting points with eight outright upsets. It’s been the Seahawks’ record in close games that has really been the key, however. When the final margin is six points or less, UNCW is 9-2. That includes Saturday’s 85-79 win over Charleston. 

So the Seahawks aren’t blowing many teams out. That’s fine when you’re the underdog 50% of the time, but here they are double digit favorites for the first time in conference play. William & Mary is second to last in the Colonial, so perhaps this makes sense, but consider that it was just a few weeks ago that UNCW was actually an underdog (on the road) to the last place team (Northeastern). Things may not have gone well for W&M the first time they faced UNCW (lost by 22), but in this early start time I think they can stay within the generous number rather easily. 

Other than the win over William & Mary, UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. As I’ve stated before, there are FIVE teams in the CAA rated ahead of the Seahawks in my power ratings. Obviously, they’ve cleaned up at the betting window to this point, but this is a team to fade down the stretch. UNCW has won seven games this year where they trailed by double digits. Four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half. I’m just not a believer. Take the points. 8* William & Mary

8* Iowa (2:00 ET): I think Iowa is better than its overall record (16-7) and certainly what they’ve done so far in the Big 10 (6-6). In fact, along with the KenPom ratings, I consider the Hawkeyes a top 20 team in the country. Out of the Big 10, only Purdue and Illinois rate higher in my own personal power ratings. This afternoon, before the Super Bowl, they’ve got a chance to shine in a spot they typically perform well in (16-4 ATS as home favorites of -12.5 or higher) and it comes against the conference’s worst team. 

Nebraska is the opponent in question here. As I just said, the Cornhuskers are off a win, their first this year in Big 10 play. The win came Wednesday, in Lincoln, 78-65 over Minnesota. That ended a 14-game regular season losing streak in conference play. But the ‘Huskers have still lost 11 in a row on the road. Yes, they have been covering spreads more often than not this year. But Iowa has just two home losses all season (Purdue, Illinois) and is outscoring visitors by 19.4 points per game. 

It was on the road that the Hawkeyes turned in their highest scoring game in Big 10 play since 1995. The game took place on Thursday when they went to Maryland and waxed the Terrapins 110-87. Iowa is a top five team in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 83.4 PPG for the year. I really sense that this game will quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Iowa

10* Tulsa (8:00 ET): It has been about as unfortunate a season as it can be for Tulsa, who carries the unfortunate distinction of having a bottom five luck rating over at KenPom. They’ve been much more competitive than their 7-15 SU record would suggest. In games decided by five points or less, they are somehow 1-9. This after losing, as seven-point favorites, to East Carolina here at home earlier in the week. The final score there was 73-71, really unfortunate as the Golden Hurricane had the halftime lead. 

But I think today is the day for Tulsa to break through. They are hosting a Cincinnati team that just isn’t as good as its been in recent years. That was evident when the Bearcats went down 80-58 at the hands of Houston last Sunday and that was at home. They did bounce back against South Florida, winning 70-59 on the road Wednesday. But Tulsa actually beat that same USF team by an even larger margin, 76-45, albeit it was at home. The Bearcats really benefited from some lousy USF three-point shooting (1 for 9) while sinking 10 of their own 21 attempts. 

This is also a revenge spot for Tulsa, who was blown out at Cincy, 90-69 back on Jan 20th. That was the Bearcats’ highest scoring game all season as they sank 55% of their 3PA. That won’t be repeated on the road where they are just 4-3 SU this season and shooting a paltry 38% overall. Meanwhile, Tulsa has covered seven consecutive times as a home dog of three points or less. Take the points here. 10* Tulsa

9* Eastern Kentucky (5:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this season, mainly due to a 1-6 SU record in games decided by five points or less. The one win in that scenario took triple overtime and that was a little over a week ago against Kennesaw State. Since that 3OT victory, the Colonels have lost to Liberty and Jacksonville, leaving them fourth in the Atlantic Sun’s West Division. But today they’ve got a wonderful opportunity to get on track against a team they are tied with in the standings. 

Lipscomb has lost three in a row and 8 of its last 10. Earlier in the week, they fell at Liberty 78-69, but did cover as 14-point underdogs. The Bisons really never had a shot at winning outright though. They were down 15 at the half and never seriously threatened, even though Liberty’s second leading scorer was just 2 of 11 from the field. Something else to consider with Lipscomb is that they only have seven wins over D-I teams and four of them have been by five points or less. 

So, in what’s projected to be yet another close game, I’m calling for a reversal of fortune for the road team. Both these teams do struggle to defend, but Lipscomb is worse when it comes to three-point percentage, allowing its opponents to hit 37.6%. The Bisons are just 2-8 ATS this season vs. teams that have losing records. While EKY is just 11-14 SU overall, they are the better team here and already beat Lipscomb by 14 points (86-72) last month. Look for them to make it a season sweep here. 9* Eastern Kentucky

8* Rutgers (2:00 ET): Rutgers will be looking to pull its third consecutive upset here, having previously beaten Ohio State and Michigan State. They face a Wisconsin team that I believe is overrated at #14 in the country and the Badgers are coming off a big revenge game (that they won) over Michigan State. While this game does not take place at the RAC, the Scarlet Knights should be more than “up” for a trip to Madison, a place where they’ve never won since joining the Big 10. Take the points.

Against Ohio State on Wednesday, Rutgers scored the game’s final 10 points to pull off a seemingly improbable 66-64 win. But they were dominant against Michigan State, winning that one 84-63 as a 2.5-point dog. Six of the Scarlet Knights’ last seven games have been decided by eight points or fewer, the exception being that win over Michigan State. So they don’t get blown out very often. In fact, five of Rutgers’ nine losses this season have come by three points or fewer. 

My own personal power ratings have been much lower on Wisconsin this season than the pollsters are. At 19-4, it’s the best start for the program in five years. But my power rankings still say they are a fringe Top 25 team at best. They have a very high “luck rating” (3rd in the country) over at KenPom. Though tied for the Big 10 lead, the Badgers are only the SEVENTH best team in the conference according to my power rankings! They have gone an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU this season in games decided by six points or less. This is a potential outright upset. 8* Rutgers

8* Alabama (12:00 ET): The Crimson Tide handled their business Wednesday in Oxford, beating Ole Miss by a score of 97-83 and easily covering the 5.5-point spread. Make no mistake about it, despite the Tide having a losing record in conference play, I believe this is a Top 25 team. Joe Lunardi has them as a 5-seed in his latest edition of “Bracketology.” The reason that Bama is just 15-9 SU overall - and 5-6 vs. the SEC - is they have played the toughest schedule in the country. Note that before the win over Ole Miss, the Tide had faced Baylor, Auburn and Kentucky, all top five teams at the time. That’s also after facing (and defeating) both Houston and Gonzaga earlier in the year. 

Holding wins over three of last year’s Final Four is very impressive. But now the Tide must defeat a team that’s won nine in a row and just beat #1 Auburn, 80-76. That would be Arkansas, a team that also ought to be ranked. The Razorbacks hadn’t defeated a top ranked team since 1984 and needed overtime to do it on Tuesday. The game was in Fayetteville as well. As hot as the Hogs have been, this looks like a classic “letdown” spot for them. Four of their five losses, including the last two, have come on the road. 

Arkansas did lose to Hofstra earlier this year, remember. They’ve shot poorly in B2B games, making less than 38% overall and 25% from three-point range. I just trust Alabama to make more shots here, even though they’ve struggled from behind the arc themselves. But they shot a blistering 60% overall against Ole Miss, including 12 of 28 on threes. Other than a visit to Kentucky, I can see Nate Oats’ team running the table from now until the end of the regular season. Like I said, this is a very good team (they are #20 in my power ratings) and I think they show it on Saturday. 8* Alabama

10* Fresno State (9:30 ET): This is a huge game for Fresno State, who I believe to be better than Colorado State, but the Bulldogs currently sit 1.5 games back of the Rams in the Mountain West standings. FSU is also three games off the conference lead (currently shared by Boise State and Wyoming). At this point, it’s highly unlikely that they can make a run at finishing first, but all that matters is getting into the NCAA Tournament. Right now, FSU is considered on the “outside looking in” in that department, so a win tonight would do wonders for their resume. 

Colorado State comes in at 18-3 SU on the season. Their first loss didn’t occur until January 8th, but it was by 30 to San Diego State (I had the Aztecs there). The Rams entered last Friday’s rematch with SDSU off B2B losses, but took a huge lead only to see it wither away. In the end, they prevailed 58-57. That was followed by a commanding 82-72 win over Nevada on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Fresno State has been idle since Saturday’s narrow home defeat (61-59) to Wyoming. I’d say the situation/schedule favors the underdog tonight.

FSU has the best player in the Mountain West, Orlando Robinson, a seven-footer that averages 19 points and eight rebounds per game. But I think the real key for the Bulldogs in this matchup is on the defensive end as they rank just inside the top 25 (24th) nationally in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Colorado State is only 122nd, easily the lowest ranking of the top six MWC teams. The added rest leading into this game, plus the revenge factor (FSU is 0-6 SU/ATS L6 meetings) have me taking the points here. 10* Fresno State

8* St. Bonaventure (9:00 ET): The A-10 does not have a dominant team this season. For a brief time (one week), Davidson was ranked in the Top 25. But with six consecutive wins, Saint Louis is certainly staking its claim as the conference’s best. The Billikens have covered the number in each of the last four wins, the most recent being a 75-57 beatdown of LaSalle on Tuesday. But tonight shapes up as a much tougher game than that as St. Bonaventure comes calling, desperate to get back in the race for one of the top spots in next month’s conference tournament. 

The Bonnies have certainly underperformed for much of 2021-22. Coming into the season, they were expected to contend for the A-10 title. Currently, they are just 5-4 SU in conference play and stuck in the middle of the pack. But a 76-51 blowout win over lowly Fordham on Tuesday was a step in the right direction. The team shot very well (50% from three-point range) and also got a season-high 21 points from Dominick Webb (to go along with 10 rebounds).

I think this is a buy low spot on the Bonnies and conversely a good time to sell high on Saint Louis. While the Billikens have been racking up wins lately, most of them have come at the expense of the bottom tier of the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure is probably the fourth best team in the conference, at least that’s what my own power ratings say. I expect a tight battle throughout and believe an outright upset is more likely than a blowout loss for the underdog. Take the points. 8* St. Bonaventure

8* Pacific (9:00 ET): For the second time in three nights, Pacific takes on a Top 25 team. They covered against USC on Tuesday, only losing by six as 19-point road underdogs. The Tigers won’t have a more challenging matchup than this one tonight as they travel up to Spokane to face Gonzaga, who is probably the best team in the country. But fortunately, Pacific doesn’t need to win here for us to cash, or really even come close to winning. All they need to do is stay within 30(ish) points.

Now it’s been a bad season at the betting window for Pacific as their 5-16 ATS mark is the third worst cover rate in the country (ahead of only Morgan State and Marshall). But, as I just said, they covered the last game against a Top 25 opponent. They’ve actually now covered three of the last five games, including a shocking outright victory over BYU. This is an insane amount of points for a team that’s losing by less than 10 PPG this season.

Now Gonzaga is obviously great and should have no problem winning here. But with a game against St. Mary’s on deck, will the Zags’ full attention really be on Pacific? Probably not. On Saturday, the Bulldogs did turn in an incredible performance, destroying BYU 90-57 in Provo. But off that game and with the #2 WCC team coming in this weekend, tonight has all the makings of a classic “letdown” spot. Gonzaga’s average margin of victory this season is around 25 PPG, but Pacific is far from the worst team they have faced. Too many points to pass up here as Gonzaga is 2-5 ATS this season laying more than 30. 8* Pacific

10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): The preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, Georgia State has really languished this season. They are just 3-5 SU in conference play, which has them third from the bottom in a league with no real clear-cut favorite at this point. Those who follow the SBC may recall that it was around this time last year the Panthers had a similar conference record, then went on an eight-game win streak, taking them to the Tournament Final. Do not rule out history repeating itself here in 2022! 

The Panthers are off a win, 69-62 over South Alabama, last weekend. That was their third win in the last four games. What needs to be noted with GSU is how unlucky they have been for much of this season. They’ve lost a couple overtime games and also a one-point game to Appalachian State, the team currently in first place. One of those two OT losses was to Coastal Carolina, who the Panthers face again tonight. I smell a big win in this revenge spot as Georgia State was an atrocious 3 of 28 from three-point range in that first meeting, a performance that will certainly be improved upon here. Second leading scorer Kane Williams was 1 of 13 overall from the field in that first meeting. 

Georgia State’s shooting has been a bit of an issue all season, but like I said, you get the sense it will improve. Also, opponents cannot continue making almost 40% from three-point range against them. In this particular situation, look for a massive turnaround from the first game when Coastal Carolina shot 45.5% from behind the arc. By the way, the Chanticleers have dropped two straight coming into tonight, 69-64 at Texas State on Saturday and 73-66 to Arkansas State here at home. 10* Georgia State

8* Louisville (7:00 ET): The Cardinals were a real “dud” play for me on Saturday as they got waxed up in Syracuse 92-69. They never really were in it, as the game was 43-26 at halftime and Syracuse shot the lights out, including making 9 of its first 10 field goal attempts. What was so disappointing about that (lack of) effort from the Louisville side is that the two previous games had seen them “hang tough” with Duke and North Carolina. I know it’s been “tough times” for this program of late, with a coaching change and five straight losses. But leading scorer Malik Williams is set to return (from suspension) tonight. 

Meanwhile, Notre Dame cannot possibly play any better than it did Saturday at NC State. The Fighting Irish not only shot 53% from the floor themselves, but also held the Wolfpack under 30%. It wound up being a 12-point win in Raleigh, which was ND’s second straight road win after also upsetting Miami in Coral Gables earlier last week. But this team can certainly “run hot and cold.” In their last home game, the Irish only made 27.9% from the field and lost 57-43 to Duke. That’s their only loss in the past seven games, but also make note that three of the wins were by four points or less (one of them against Howard!). 

Williams being back is huge for L’ville as not only is he the team’s leading scorer, but he is also the leading rebounder. Even without him, the Cardinals took North Carolina to overtime last week. The game vs. Duke was even with seven minutes to go. Looking at each team’s most recent game, in my view, there’s no way Louisville’s defensive numbers won’t improve while at the same time ND’s will certainly regress. Take the points here. 8* Louisville

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): The Atlantic 10 is an interesting league as there’s no dominant team and I think as many as six teams could win the Conference Tournament next month. One of those six is Richmond, who until recently was looking pretty “dead in the water.” But the Spiders have rattled off six wins in their last seven games. If not for a buzzer beater by Davidson and a couple of last minute shots by VCU, then Richmond would be entering tonight’s game vs. George Mason on a nine-game win streak. 

These teams just met Monday with Richmond prevailing 62-59 at home. They did so despite shooting below 40% for the game. I’m a little surprised how subpar the Spiders’ shooting has been for much of this season, particularly from three-point range, but there were certainly signs of “heating up” in previous wins over St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Opponents have also shot much better than expected for much of the A-10 campaign. My view is that we’re going to see these numbers start to move in Richmond’s favor down the stretch. 

The Spiders did not cover the spread on Monday as 7.5-point favorites, but led most of the second half (were up by 10 at one point). It was a deserved win after losing five of its previous seven games decided by six points. All we need is a win here over a George Mason team that may be “mentally beaten” after three straight losses by five points or less (one in double overtime). GMU didn’t have its leading scorer (Josh Oduro) Monday because of a concussion and he is questionable here. Regardless, I like Richmond to get the cash. 10* Richmond

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): I took UNC Asheville last Wednesday, in a big spot, as they were a short home dog facing the #1 team in the Big South. Unfortunately, that play didn’t go as planned as the Bulldogs lost 56-48 to Longwood. Then they lost again Saturday, this time in a high-scoring game, 91-83 to High Point. That went to overtime. Most of this team’s decisions have come down to the wire in conference play. They’ve played three overtime games and lost two of them, plus there have been two other losses by a combined three points. The eight-point defeat to Longwood last week actually represents Asheville’s worst margin of defeat in conference play, for a game ending in regulation. 

Now they’ve also won a few close ones too. Their last win, which was on 1/29, came by a single point over Presbyterian. So all but ONE of the Bulldogs’ 10 conference games have been decided by eight points or less. The exception was an 82-59 win over Charleston Southern, back on Jan 8th. I expect tonight’s game, against a weak Hampton team, to go like that one did. Hampton, who has yet to be favored in a single Big South game this year, is off an upset win over Presbyterian on Monday. 

That win over Presbyterian came at home. Now on the road, playing for the second time in three days, it’s tough to see Hampton competing tonight. The Pirates are 1-4 SU/ATS with just one day of rest between games this season, while being outscored by double digits. They also haven’t won B2B games since early December and have just two road wins all year. Averaging only 58.4 PPG away from home this year isn’t an encouraging sign either. Hampton is a horrible three-point shooting team (28% for the year!) and UNC Asheville holds teams to 27.6% (for the year!) from behind the arc. This is a classic “get well game” for the home team. 8* UNC Asheville

8* UNLV (10:00 ET): The Runnin’ Rebels are off an ugly 90-75 road loss where they let Utah State shoot 64% from the field. But this is a MUCH different team at home where they are 11-4 SU on the season. Their only two home losses in conference play came to a couple of the Mountain West’s “big boys” - San Diego State and Fresno State. It’s a much weaker opponent coming to the Thomas & Mack Center on Tuesday and the Rebels actually have revenge for a 69-62 loss in Colorado Springs earlier this year. 

Air Force is coming off TWO straight games where they didn't play any defense. They too let Utah State shoot north of 60% and then on Saturday, at home, they let New Mexico score 91 points on 58.9% shooting. Such a lack of defense is a real problem when you only average 60 PPG like the Flyboys do. The first game vs. UNLV, where they finished with 69 points, was the AFA’s highest scoring game of the conference slate. They shot 50% at home and it also helped that the Rebels were only 4 of 15 from three-point range. 

I don’t see those kinds of percentages existing again in tonight’s rematch, so expect a big UNLV win. Defensively, the Rebels are only allowing 62.5 PPG at home. This is a team that recently went to Colorado State and won 88-74 as a 15-point dog. Leading scorer Bryce Hamilton has been on a real roll of late, scoring 30+ points in four of the last six games. Air Force simply lacks the firepower to come into Vegas and compete. They’ve lost 28 of the L30 games here. Lay the points. 8* UNLV

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This is the biggest regular season game in the MAC for 2021-22. Ohio is 10-1 in conference play while Toledo is 10-2. The conference leading Bobcats’ only loss to a MAC team this season came on January 21st, at home, and it was 87-69 to Toledo. The Rockets shot a blistering 59% that day in Athens. It is Ohio’s only home loss of the season and only loss period since Dec 1. Now they get a chance at revenge and can hand Toledo’s its first home loss. I’m taking the points in this one. 

Other than Toledo, the only other teams to defeat Ohio this season are LSU and Kentucky. So this is a very talented team. Since the loss to Toledo, the Bobcats have won five in a row, all by double digits. I love the idea of the better team, playing with revenge, getting points. A win here obviously gives the Bobcats a two-game cushion, but a loss would all but hand Toledo the regular season championship. So, like I said, this is a huge game for both teams. Ohio is 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss.

While Ohio is coming off three home wins in a five-day span, Toledo was upset on Friday, losing 93-83 at Ball State as nine-point favorites. That ended the Rockets’ nine-game SU and ATS win streak. They trailed by as many as 20 in the 1H. For this game, not only do I NOT think Toledo will be able to match its torrid shooting from the previous meeting, but you should look for Ohio to shoot a lot better from three-point range. In that first meeting, the Bobcats were just 8 of 29 (27.6%) on threes and for the season teams are shooting just 30.3% from behind the arc against Toledo. That’s pretty preposterous. 10* Ohio

8* Miami OH (7:00 ET): While the MAC will see its top two teams (Ohio and Toledo) battle on Tuesday, we’ve also got this matchup of the two bottom teams in the conference standings. There’s really no sugarcoating how miserable this season has been for both Western Michigan and Miami Ohio. The former is 4-19 straight up and has not won a game since 12/17 against Aquinas (non-board team). That’s 13 straight losses for the Broncos, who have only two wins against D-I opponents all season.

Meanwhile, despite losing five a row, Miami has been a bit better than WMU. They have three MAC wins. But the RedHawks’ problem has been the betting window where they have not covered a single game since the conference opener, 12/29 vs. Buffalo! It’s a 10-game ATS losing streak entering Tuesday. I can’t remember the last time I saw a drought longer than that. You might be wondering, given Miami’s ATS skid, how I could possibly consider laying this many points. Well, Western Michigan is just that bad. 

Miami won the first meeting 70-62, but (obviously) did not cover. They were 10-point favorites on the road. But we’re actually getting a GREAT number with them here at home as the line is basically unchanged (from the first meeting) despite the change in venue. Western Michigan has not won a single road game all season, losing all 11 by an average of 20.6 PPG. Miami was only 5 of 21 from three-point range in the first meeting. After B2B rough shooting games vs. Akron, the RedHawks will find their touch here against a downtrodden opponent whose L5 losses have all been by double digits. 8* Miami OH

10* Navy (7:00 ET): I think that we’re getting a pretty good value here on the Midshipmen, who defeated Lafayette earlier this season, 69-55 as an eight-point road favorite. Having to lay an only slightly larger number with them at home, against the same opponent, seems like a steal. Now the Middies are just 2-6 ATS since beating Lafayette with four games decided by two points or less. But this is where they start to “set sail” again. They have the most conference wins (8) of any team in the Patriot League currently. 

Last week saw Lafayette win twice, but both games were at home. The Leopards were just 5-14 SU overall and 2-6 in conference play before picking up those two wins. Saturday’s victory over Bucknell went to OT and was decided on a layup with two seconds to go. Should be noted that Bucknell, who is in last place in the Patriot League, went just 8 of 19 from the free throw line in that game. Since November, Lafayette has just one road win and it came against American U, who is 6-16 SU this season. 

After suffering a shocking one-point loss to Lehigh last Wednesday, Navy bounced back with a one-point win over Loyola MD on Saturday. The team’s last three games have all been decided in the final 15 seconds and come down to the final possession. But I’m laying the points here because I expect a strong effort at the defensive end, as per usual from Navy, who allows just 60.3 PPG. Lafayette is shooting below 40% away from home this year and averaging just 61.8 points. 10* Navy

8* Virginia (7:00 ET): Duke is coming off a huge win, 87-67 over North Carolina, which was Coach K’s final trip to Chapel Hill. We know the Blue Devils are good, but by the time this game tips off (and the new rankings are out), I suspect they’ll be ranked a little higher than where I have them. The ACC is not particularly strong this year, as no other team in the conference is even ranked. But look out for Virginia in this spot as the Hoos have posted B2B wins and held three of their last four opponents under 60 points. 

This is clearly a “flat” spot for Duke, who just waxed its rival by 20 points on national television. Something to take note of with the Blue Devils is how poorly teams have shot against them. Opponents are hitting just 30% from three-point range and while some of the credit has to go to their length on the perimeter, a lot of these missed shots have been open looks. On the flip side, Duke just shot almost 58% against UNC. I just think these ridiculous shooting numbers are due for a “correction.” 

Virginia just shot 60% in an impressive double digit victory over Miami on Saturday. They won 71-58 despite allowing the ‘Canes to shoot 54%. As per usual, Tony Bennett’s team is playing very slow. They are dead last in the country in adjusted tempo, which is a great way to keep favored Duke in check here and limit the offensive damage. Five of the last seven Virginia-Duke games have been decided by two points or less. The underdog is on a 23-8-1 ATS run in this ACC rivalry. 8* Virginia

8* Hofstra (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington has been one of the most surprising - and luckiest - teams in all of College Basketball this season. The Seahawks, despite recently taking their first conference loss, still lead the CAA with a 10-1 record. But they’ve gotten to the summit with a lot of “smoke and mirrors.” Prior to shooting almost 62% from the field against hapless William & Mary on Saturday, the Seahawks’ previous 12 wins over D-I competition had all been by eight points or fewer. Two of the wins required overtime while two others were by a combined three points. 

It’s not like UNC Wilmington is racing out to big leads and holding on either. Incredibly, they have trailed by double digits in NINE of their 14 wins over D-I opponents this year! That is preposterous. One of those nine occasions came against tonight’s opponent, Hofstra, who built a 15-point first half lead (on the road!) back on 1/29, only to lose 78-72 as a four-point favorite. The Pride only made 3 of 18 three-point attempts that day while UNCW was 10 of 27.

Hofstra is one of FIVE CAA teams rated higher than UNCW over at KenPom. Incredibly, neither the KenPom ratings nor my own consider the Seahawks a top 200 team in the country right now! The performance they turned in Saturday vs. W&M was NOT the norm. Last Thursday, they were beaten by 13 at Elon. Another area where UNCW has been extremely fortunate is free throws. Opponents are shooting just 68.8% from the charity stripe this season! Well, Hofstra is 80.7% there. The home team has had this one circled for two weeks. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra

10* Fresno State (7:00 ET): The Mountain West is a fairly strong league this season as you’ve got six quality teams, four of which are currently projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. Fresno State is currently on the WRONG side of the “bubble,” despite having the fourth best record in the conference. The Bulldogs are playing well right now as they’re off B2B blowout victories (by 30 and 17) and getting this key matchup vs. second place Wyoming at home is pretty huge. I’m laying the short number. 

When analyzing the top six in the MWC, what separates some from the herd is defense. Three of these teams are 24th or better in adjusted defensive efficiency and FSU is one of those three. (San Diego State and Boise State are actually both in the top seven with SDSU #1!). The Bulldogs are giving up only 57.5 PPG on the season and 54.5 at home (where they are 11-1 SU). In terms of scoring defense, FSU is top five NATIONALLY. They just don’t give up many points and I think that trend will continue tonight. 

Wyoming is only 108th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Right now, the Cowboys are running neck and neck with Boise State for first place (two back in the win column), but KenPom actually has Fresno State rated higher. The Pokes are coming off two huge wins, both at home, over Colorado State and Boise State. This feels like a letdown spot for them and the “glacial” pace at which Fresno plays at (third slowest in the country!) will give the road team problems in this one. Wyoming could easily be 0-4 in conference road games as both SU wins were by two points each. 10* Fresno State

8* Maryland (1:00 ET): There was a time, earlier this season, that the Terrapins found themselves in the Top 25. I didn’t necessarily agree with that, so it’s not shocking (to me) that they’ve been a bit of a “middling” team. But they should be better than 3-8 SU in the Big 10. The Terps have lost a few close ones, most recently 65-63 to Michigan State on Tuesday, that have cost them. I like this spot for them as they are getting a lot of points and Ohio State could be rusty after a week-long layoff. Take the points. 

Ohio State hasn’t played since last Sunday when they lost 81-78 at Purdue. The reason for this latest layoff was actually inclement weather, not COVID, as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. Iowa had to be postponed. Don’t be fooled by the fact the Buckeyes only lost by three at Purdue last week as they actually trailed by as many as 20 points in that one. The team is a perfect 9-0 SU here in Columbus, but their last two conference games here were both decided by single digits. I expect a slow start from OSU this afternoon. 

More often than not, Maryland is competitive. Their two losses to ranked teams have been by a total of three points. They also beat Illinois (by 16!) a couple weeks ago. I like the fact that the Terrapins lead the conference in free throws made and are second in attempts. The team has actually been better on the road than at home, at least in Big 10 play, so far. "I'm excited. We've been playing well on the road," Terrapins guard Eric Ayala said. "I'm looking forward to going out there and competing at a high level."  8* Maryland

10* McNeese (5:00 ET): Gonna try again with McNeese (State), who let me down Thursday when they lost 83-78 to SE Louisiana. That was the Cowboys’ third straight loss, all of them coming at home, leaving them with a 8-15 SU record and way off the pace in the Southland. But this afternoon they’ll face a Northwestern State team that is due for a “nosedive” after winning its last three games, including a shocking performance Thursday where they shot 61.1% on the road. Lay the points in this one. 

There’s usually a lot of points when Northwestern State takes the floor. The Demons are off B2B 90+ point efforts, but what was so shocking about the last one wasn’t just the ridiculous shooting, it’s that they were previously 1-14 SU away from home. Therefore, it’s very difficult for me to envision them winning two road games in a three-day span. Defensively, the Demons are a disaster as they give up 80.7 PPG for the year and 85.9 when playing away from home. Thursday was actually their first “true” road win of the year; previously their only SU win away from home was a neutral site game vs. Incarnate Word.

McNeese has allowed 80+ points in each of the L3 games, but I expect them to score a lot tonight against this soft Northwestern State defense that is 347th nationally (out of 358 teams) in efficiency. Northwestern State made a season-high 17 three-pointers in their last game, so look for regression there, especially with McNeese likely to defend the arc better than they did vs. SE Louisiana. With the next four games all on the road, this is a MUST win for McNeese. 10* McNeese

8* Michigan (2:30 ET): The Wolverines, who were once ranked as high as #4 in the country, are in dire need of a big win to bolster their resume. Juwan Howard’s team is currently 11-8 SU and 7th in the Big 10. The Big 10 is a loaded conference mind you, and I still consider the Maize and Blue among the top 30 in the country. Beating Purdue, the current #4 ranked team in the country, is precisely the win that Michigan needs right now. Not sure they can pull off the outright upset Saturday, but I’m definitely taking the points.

Purdue has won four in a row and will be facing Illinois (probably the Big 10’s second best team) on Tuesday. So they may not be taking their opponents all that seriously. If there is a “hole” in the Boilermakers’ resume, it is the fact they rank 91st in the country in defensive efficiency. Among teams in the KenPom Top 25, that’s easily the worst, with the exception of Iowa, who you’ll note is not in the “actual” Top 25 (AP/Coaches). I’m also not convinced the Boilermakers can continue their recent hot shooting. They made 55.6% against Minnesota and 61.2% at Iowa. 

Michigan has a top 20 offense in terms of efficiency and has some proverbial “momentum” after scoring the last six points of the game to defeat Nebraska 85-79 on Tuesday. That was a game where the Wolverines were down seven points at halftime and their season was very much “on the brink.” Note they have won in West Lafayette each of the last two seasons and are 8-0-1 ATS the L9 meetings overall. Purdue has not beaten Michigan since 2018! This is just the fourth time this season that Michigan has been a dog. 8* Michigan

8* Louisville (2:00 ET): It’s obviously been a very frustrating season for Louisville, who has already made a coaching change (fired Chris Mack) and continues to come up short in heart-breaking fashion. The last two games have seen the Cardinals go 0-2 ATS, despite being tied with Duke with seven minutes left in regulation and going to overtime against North Carolina. That leaves them an awful 1-10-1 ATS their L12 games, but the improved effort we’ve seen (since the coaching change) should continue here. 

Syracuse has put together a couple of high-scoring wins over the last week, beating Wake Forest and NC State. But it is highly unlikely that the Orange can continue shooting as well as they did in those two victories. They made 57.1% from the field against Wake Forest, then topped that with 59.3% against NC State. In the two games prior, the Orange averaged just 55 points in losses to Duke and Pitt. Now those losses were both on the road, but even at the Carrier Dome, the ‘Cuse won’t be able to match the three-point shooting of the last two games. 

Jim Boeheim’s team has made 21 of its last 38 3PA, which is pretty insane and simply not sustainable. Factoring in the likely offensive regression, and the fact the Orange simply aren’t that good defensively, this is a great spot to take the points. Syracuse ranks 237th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), which is just horrible, and they give up 75.5 PPG. Look for the shots to start falling for L’ville, who has three players that shoot 36% or better from three-point range. 8* Louisville

8* Tulsa (2:00 ET): It’s been a tough season for Frank Haith and Tulsa, who are just 7-13 SU overall and 1-8 in conference play, leaving them last in the American. But the Golden Hurricane have been really unlucky, losing eight of their nine games that were decided by five points or less and opponents seemingly can’t miss from three-point range against them (37.7%!) But I like them here, getting points in a revenge spot, against a Temple team that’s had a lot of luck go its way. Time for a reversal of fortune. 

Temple has won five of six coming into Saturday, however four of those wins were by five points or less. The largest margin of victory during this run came last time out when the Owls beat East Carolina 71-63. This is a rare time that the Owls are favored; the last time they were chalk was against ECU on Jan 8 and they failed to cover the four point spread (won by three). Tulsa went off as a 3.5-point favorite in the first meeting, a game where Temple got a career-high 24 points from Nick Jourdain. My feeling is that this is a rare opportunity to fade a lucky team laying points. 

Since losing to Temple, Tulsa has lost by two to Houston (a very good team) and by two to Memphis (blew a 15-point lead). The Golden Hurricane are certainly better than their record and should shoot better here than they did at. Wichita State on Tuesday. There, they scored a season-low 18 points in the second half. They made only 6 of 23 from behind the arc in the first meeting with Temple, yet led by five in the second half. This team is due! Take the points. 8* Tulsa

8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga (12:00 ET): Chattanooga’s 80-72 loss to Samford earlier in the week (as 7-point favorites) dropped the Mocs out of first place in the SoCon, leaving them a half game back of Furman. They look to bounce back Saturday, at home, against third place Mercer. We’ve seen six straight games from Chattanooga with 71-78 points. That’s very consistent. They also come into Saturday averaging 80.0 PPG at home for the year. Leading scorer Malachi Smith struggled in the last game, but should bounce back here. 

Mercer has been far less consistent this year, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. The Bears are third worst in the SoCon in terms of defensive efficiency, ranking 276th nationally. That’s not good. I expect the Bears to really struggle to defend here against a team that’s making 39% of its three-point attempts at home. I realize that the last seven Mercer games have all stayed Under the total, but 12 of the previous 14 meetings with Chattanooga have gone Over. 

Smith is averaging 20.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. Off a loss, he averages 26.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. In the loss to Samford, Smith only attempted ONE free throw and was 4 of 12 from the field. So, as I said earlier, look for a bounce back game from him this afternoon. Mercer has size issues and going against a Mocs team that has an excellent offensive rebounding percentage likely means trouble. I do think Mercer will put up a surprising number of points here as well. 8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga

10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth (7:00 ET): These teams met two weeks ago and it was a low-scoring game. Monmouth won 61-58, just barely covering the 2.5-point spread. Examining the Hawks’ results this season, one thing that jumps out to me is they score a lot more at home. They are averaging 76.6 PPG in their own gym, as opposed to just 67.3 elsewhere. The disparity became even more pronounced in January when they failed to top 62 (points) in any of their three road games. But they scored 85, 78, 72 and 69 in the four at home. 

With this being a home game, I expect Monmouth to put up a lot more points than they did the first time against Fairfield. The team’s last three games, all here at home, have been remarkably consistent with 140, 139 and 139 total points scored. This is among the lowest O/U lines set for one of their games all season. Only the last one, a 70-69 loss to Niagara (as 8-point chalk) was lower. That game went Over despite the Hawks only shooting 30% from the field. They’ll certainly shoot better than that tonight. 

Fairfield’s home vs. road splits are pretty consistent. Their games average almost 140 PPG, no matter where they’re at. The Stags’ two games since the loss to Monmouth both went Over as they beat Marist 69-66 and Rider 76-65 on the road. Of their last five games, the only one that would NOT have gone Over the current O/U line for this game was the one against Monmouth. The total for that game closed at 139.5, so I see value here. 10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth

10* McNeese (8:30 ET): So McNeese is in dire need of a win here after two straight losses, both here at home. The Cowboys had the halftime advantage Saturday against New Orleans, the team that leads the Southland Conference. But they couldn’t hold on, surrendering 46 points in the second half. That was a tough loss as McNeese allowed UNO to hit three three-pointers the entire game. But the Privateers were 25 of 28 from the free throw line. I can’t see McNeese dropping a third straight game at home. 

Especially not with the revenge angle in play here. The Cowboys lost to SE Louisiana 83-78, back on January 7th. That was a unique situation as both teams were in the midst of playing three days in a row and it was a neutral site game. SE Louisiana shot 50% overall and 13 of 23 from three-point range, a performance I can’t see them duplicating tonight as the Lions are just 2-8 SU in “true” road games. Then there is the matter that they are allowing nearly 80 PPG away from home this season. 

SE Louisiana enters this rematch off a 78-68 home win over Incarnate Word. That’s the worst team in the conference. They were down a point at halftime and needed a career-day (29 points) from Keon Clergeot to pull out the victory. Also, playing at home, the Lions enjoyed a massive edge in free throw attempts (+24). I really like how the situation sets up here for McNeese, who should be extremely motivated tonight. 10* McNeese

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): The Big South currently belongs to Longwood, who are 7-0 SU in conference play. The Lancers just beat the other division leader, Winthrop, on Saturday by a score of 92-88. They got a career-high 29 points from leading scorer Justin Hill, but still only covered the spread by half a point. There aren’t too many teams left with unbeaten conference records, in all of College Basketball, and this is one I expect to lose sooner rather than later. Longwood’s unbeaten run likely ends here. 

UNC Asheville looks to be the team to knock Longwood off its perch. The Bulldogs are coming off a one-point win over Presbyterian on Saturday, which got them back to .500 (4-4 SU) in conference play. It’s been a series of close calls for UNC Asheville, whose last six games have all been decided by six points or less. They are just 2-4 SU in those games. But getting the Big South’s top team, at home, should lead to some massive motivation, especially with the Bulldogs having lost three straight at home - all as favorites. 

With the exception of a blowout win over Hampton, all of Longwood’s conference wins have been close. They allowed 61 points in the second half against Winthrop, a scary sign. Also, the Lancers have a losing road record this year. Scoring drops to 71.7 PPG (on 42.7% shooting) away from home. UNC Asheville is putting up 81.9 PPG at home and we should be getting their best effort here. Defensively, they are holding teams below 40% shooting at home this year. Take the points as the Bulldogs are already 6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. 8* UNC Asheville

10* Abilene Christian (6:00 ET): Abilene Christian is “middle of the pack” in the WAC this year with a 5-5 conference record. But while they have won each of their last three games straight up, the Wildcats continue to struggle at the betting window as they are just 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Prior to the current three-game win streak, the team had dropped five a row. But the wins have come against the bottom three teams in the WAC and now they face Chicago State, who also is very bad. It seems like a big number, but I’m laying it. 

While Chicago State may be ahead of two teams (UTRGV and Lamar) in the WAC standings and tied with Cal Baptist, I've got them rated as the worst team in the conference. The Cougars did beat Cal Baptist by two at home and then upset Lamar on the road a couple weeks ago. But that’s it for wins in conference play. The fact they were 7.5-point underdogs to Lamar should tell you what the oddsmakers think of them. Each of the Cougars’ last two games were 14-point losses and they surrendered 101 points to Utah Valley State. 

Abilene Christian has been putting up some nice point totals of late. They’ve averaged 83 PPG during the win streak and 80.9 PPG at home for the season. They only give up 59.5 PPG at home. Now some of that is skewed due to facing non-DI teams, but Chicago State is close to the bottom of the barrel when it comes to D-I.  The Wildcats have been favored in most of their WAC games and when you analyze the numbers, all signs point to a big blowout here. 10* Abilene Christian

10* St. John’s (9:00 ET): This line speaks volumes. Providence is the #15 ranked team in the country right now, but getting points from an 11-8 St. John’s team that has a losing record in Big East play. But, as has been well-documented in the past, the Friars are vastly overrated. Yes, they have an 18-2 SU record. But KenPom calls them the luckiest team in America this season (7-0 SU in games decided by five points or less) and my own power ratings don’t even consider them a top 45 team in the country!

St. John’s has already faced Providence once this year. It was when Providence was on the heels of an 88-56 loss to Marquette. The Johnnies started strong, taking a three-point lead into the break. But it was not to be as Providence rallied in the 2H for an 83-73 win and cover. A big difference in that game was that St. John’s was just 8 of 17 from the free throw line while Providence was 26 of 30. Don’t expect that discrepancy to repeat itself now that the Johnnies are the home team.

Providence’s last two wins have been by a total of five points, over Xavier and Marquette, the latter being a big revenge spot for them. It was a buzzer-beater that lifted them over Xavier and against Marquette they rallied from a six-point halftime deficit. Now it’s St. John’s that’s playing with revenge and the Red Storm are a much different team at home where they’ve gone 10-2 SU this season and averaged 83.1 PPG. Expect a much better effort at the offensive end here, than what we saw Saturday at Villanova where the Red Storm went just 4 of 21 from three-point range. Leading scorer Julian Champagne is the key and will play better here, compared to the first meeting with Providence when he finished with only 11 points on 5 of 19 shooting. 10* St. John’s

8* Kansas (7:00 ET): I have not been a believer in Iowa State this season. The Cyclones started the year a perfect 12-0, which was a remarkable turnaround from a 2020-21 season that saw them finish 2-22 SU. But after opening the year with 12 straight wins, ISU has since dropped five of their last nine games. Big 12 play continues to be a “bugaboo.” They’ve lost 23 of their last 26 conference games, even though two of the three wins have come in the last two games. It’s time to fade them on Tuesday. 

Kansas is the benchmark in the Big 12. But stepping outside of conference play resulted in the Jayhawks getting “smacked in the mouth” Saturday as they were beaten soundly, 80-62 by Kentucky, at Allen Fieldhouse. KU had been “living dangerously” prior to that with four of their last five wins coming by three points or less. One of those close calls was against Iowa State, 62-61. Interestingly, the Jayhawks were 13-point favorites for that game. I know this one is in Ames, but it looks like we’re getting some decent value on the chalk. 

Kentucky is simply a much better team than Iowa State, so I’m not overly concerned about what happened on Saturday. Yes, the Jayhawks have just one win by more than three points going back to January 4th. But I still consider them a Top 10 team in the country. Iowa State is not even in my Top 25, or even Top 40, so consider them overrated by the pollsters. One of the Cyclones’ Big 12 wins was in OT and another by just four over Texas Tech. They simply aren’t in Kansas’ class. 8* Kansas

8* Connecticut (6:30 ET): This looks to be a good spot to lay the points with UConn, who is on a five-game win streak and up to #17 in the latest polls. This “resurgence” by the Huskies really isn’t all that surprising; I’ve had them in the Top 20 of my own power rankings for a while now, plus it’s St. John’s, Georgetown, Butler (twice) and DePaul that they’ve beaten during this win streak. Creighton isn’t very good either though and this should be yet another UConn blowout. 

It’s a triple revenge spot for UConn here as they lost three times to the Bluejays last season, the final meeting coming in the Big East Tournament. But they’re catching “the birds” wounded here as Creighton just blew a 17-point halftime lead and lost to Xavier over the weekend. The Bluejays ended up losing by 10, so that was a 27-point swing in the second half - at home. Not good. The previous game saw them lose by 17 at Butler, also a less than inspiring result. Over its L3 games, Creighton has averaged just under 60 PPG.

That’s not good when facing a UConn team that is putting up 83.9 PPG at home this season. The Huskies have been a dominant home team, outscoring their visitors by an average of 24.5 PPG this season. My own power rankings say they should be a much larger favorite here and an early line move seems to concur with that assessment. Connecticut is on a 19-8 ATS run when off a conference win and a Creighton team that shoots just 30% from three-point range isn’t going to be able to keep up here. 8* Connecticut

8* Portland State (10:30 ET): Portland State, a five-win team out of the Big Sky, is probably NOT an outfit you’ve had your eye on lately. But I think the Vikings have been somewhat undervalued. They went 2-0 ATS last week, covering the spread in a three-point loss to Southern Utah and then going to Northern Arizona and winning 97-76 as a two-point dog. That win snapped a five-game losing streak and was probably PSU’s most impressive performance to date. Let it also be known that three of the four games the Vikings had lost before that were by five points or less. 

It’s been more than two months since Portland State last won a home game, which is truly incredible when you think about it. Back in early November, at the start of the year, they picked up a pair of wins over non-board teams. Since then, they’ve lost seven in a row at the Peter W. Stott Center. I think they’ve got a GREAT chance at breaking that streak here tonight. The Vikings are hosting a Northern Colorado team that’s been a bit more “lucky” than “good” this season and is coming off an 86-75 loss to Weber State. 

While Northern Colorado last played on Thursday and Portland State’s win over Northern Arizona was Saturday, I’m still taking the points here as the visitors are giving up 78.8 PPG away from home this year, which is just not good when laying points. I was a little surprised to see that the Bears have been road favorites four times previous to this, but they lost one of the four outright and two of the three SU wins were by a combined seven points. Take the points. 8* Portland State

10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): The last time I went with San Diego State, things turned out rather well. Not only did the Aztecs (-2) hand Colorado State its first defeat of the season, they did so in emphatic fashion, winning 79-49 here at home. Since that time, however, the Aztecs have stumbled. They turned in a woeful 37-point performance against Boise State (but still only lost by five). Then, last week, they went out to Utah State and lost 71-57 as a 1-point favorite. The Aztecs are now fourth in the Mountain West and really lagging behind the top three teams (Boise, Wyoming, Colorado State). 

But it should be an easy win Monday as SDSU hosts New Mexico. Other than the 28% shooting night against Boise, the Aztecs have not lost at home all season. They are a perfect 4-0 straight up this year following a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Defensively, SDSU remains one of the top teams in the country (4th in defensive efficiency per KenPom). As long as they can get the shots to fall tonight, it will be a blowout.

The fact that New Mexico gives up 84.6 PPG away from home is a positive sign. The Lobos were 86-70 winners Friday night, but that was at home against San Jose State, the last place team in the conference. Prior to that win, the Lobos had lost seven in a row. San Diego State has had more time to prepare for this game as they last played on Wednesday. The last time the Aztecs were at home, they won by 25 over UNLV. Look for this to be a rout. 10* San Diego State

8* Over Colorado/Washington State (10:00 ET): Wazzu started out the season by going Over the total in each of the first five games. Since then, the Under is 11-2 their last 13 games. They’ve gone Over in just one game during the month of January, but that was against tonight’s opponent, Colorado. That game ended up as an 83-79 final, in favor of the Buffaloes. It was the first game for CU in nearly three weeks because of COVID-19. Washington State had been off for two weeks for the same reason. 

The Cougars didn’t even have Noah Williams in that first meeting and he is the team’s second leading scorer. Shooting was not particularly outrageous from either side. So, yes, I think the teams are capable of going Over another low total on Sunday night. Eventually, Washington State’s shooting in conference play is bound to improve. They are making only 39% of their FG attempts against Pac 12 opposition, which is really bad. The shots have to start falling, sooner or later, and at least they’re at home tonight where they scored 71 points last time out (despite shooting only 36.9%) in a win over Utah.

Wazzu won that last game, rather handily, as it also held the Utes to 54 points on 39.1% shooting. Defense has not been a problem for the Cougs, but when they last faced CU, they allowed 51% shooting. Colorado shot a dreadful 34% overall in Thursday’s 60-58 loss to Washington. They were rather lucky the game ended up so close as UW was just 4 of 17 from three-point range and 8 of 17 from the free throw line. I think we’ll be getting some points tonight! 8* Over Colorado/Washington State

10* Illinois (4:30 ET): The Fighting Illini survived a scare on Tuesday, holding off #10 Michigan State for a 56-55 win. It was a game they led by double digits at the half, despite being without two of their top players. Kofi Cockburn could be back today while Andre Curbelo (COVID) is less likely to return. Both players are officially listed as questionable as of this writing. What I do know is that the Illini, in order to preserve their Top 25 ranking, can not afford a slip up here against Northwestern. 

I’ve got Illinois rated as the second best team in the Big 10 this year, only behind Purdue. The Illini are currently tied with Wisconsin for first place with a 7-2 SU conference record. They haven’t covered any of the last three games, but one of those was an OT loss to Purdue. This is a short number we’re dealing with here, and while I usually stay away from road favorites, the fact is Northwestern (Illinois’ opponent) is coming off a slew of disappointing setback and may have little left “in the tank” on Saturday. 

Six of N’western’s seven Big 10 losses have come by eight points or fewer, including 72-70 at Michigan on Wednesday. That was a game that saw the Wildcats only lead briefly after a late run in the second half. As many close calls as they’ve had, N’western is just 2-6 ATS vs. Big 10 teams thus far. They have struggled defensively, giving up an average of 78.0 points the L5 games. Even a possibly undermanned Illinois team can come into Evanston and win. They are 17-5 ATS L22 trips here. 10* Illinois

8* Alabama (4:00 ET): This is a spot I couldn’t wait to jump on. Most will see Baylor, the defending National Champion, laying a short number on the road and want to lay the points. But give me Alabama, an underrated team that’s off a bad loss. The Crimson Tide still rank in the Top 20 of my power ratings, even after losing to Georgia (as a 15.5-point favorite) on Tuesday. They’ve beaten both Houston and Gonzaga this year and only lost by four to Auburn. I love the Tide getting points in Tuscaloosa. 

Bama is on a six-game ATS losing streak coming into this game, after the bad loss to UGA earlier this week. That’s not the first time a loss to the Bulldogs has angered the Alabama fan base this month. But this was the basketball team’s worst defeat of the season. It came about as a result of going just 9 of 34 from three-point range and a big disparity at the free throw line (-11 in makes). But now the Tide is back home, where they are 9-1 SU this year, the only loss coming against #1 Auburn.

The same night ‘Bama got upset, Baylor dominated Kansas State for a 74-49 home win. But now they step into unfamiliar territory as this is part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge and the Bears should expect a hostile environment. The Bears are certainly capable of winning on the road (they are 8-0 SU outside of Waco this season), but remember they did lose at home to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. I think Alabama is pretty comparable to Texas Tech. The respect shown here to the home team is not a surprise. They were favorites at home vs. Auburn! 8* Alabama

8* Winthrop (3:00 ET): The number of teams with an unbeaten conference record is rapidly dwindling across College Basketball. But we’ve got one of the few remaining here with Longwood out of the Big South. The Lancers have won all six league games so far. But other than a 73-49 thrashing of last place Hampton earlier this week, all of the wins have come by single digits. This afternoon, Longwood gets its stiffest Big South test to date with a visit from the other division leader, Winthrop. 

Now Winthrop has been a disaster for bettors so far this season. The Eagles are 3-13 ATS overall and haven’t covered a spread since December 7th! But they have also been favored in almost every game during this ATS slide. The lone exception was a blowout loss at Mississippi State. In fact, the last time Winthrop covered a game, came as a home underdog to Furman (they won that game outright). It is rather incredible to see a team with an 0-11-1 ATS record as favorites, but we don’t need to worry about laying points here. 

This is the third game in six days for both teams. Winthrop lost at High Point on Monday, but then bounced back with a four-point win at USC Upstate in overtime. Longwood had the win at Hampton on Monday, then beat North Carolina A&T by eight on Wednesday, at home. Winthrop has certainly had Longwood’s number the last couple years, winning all five meetings, four of those by double digits. Longwood trailed at the half on Wednesday. Take the points here. 8* Winthrop

10* Akron (7:00 ET): Toledo is on quite the run currently. They’ve won and covered seven straight, putting them squarely in first place in the MAC. The Rockets’ lone conference defeat this year came by just three points at Kent State back on New Year’s Day. This run hasn’t seen too many close calls, although there have been a couple upsets, like winning at Ohio last Friday. On Tuesday, they won here at home over Buffalo, 86-75. Note, however, that was a close game until the stretch run. I think now is the right time to take the points against Toledo as they are facing a pretty strong Akron team. 

Akron is 6-2 SU in MAC games as they too lost in Kent, but were also beaten at home by Ohio. The Zips have won four in a row coming into tonight, three of those by four points or less. So it’s not been as dominant of a win streak as Toledo’s, but the Zips have allowed an average of just 55.3 points the last three games. Strong defensive numbers are a big reason why this team is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year. They are 13-5 ATS L18 times getting points.

Toledo is the better offensive team here, but look for them to get stymied by Akron’s slow pace of play. The Zips play at the 15th slowest pace in the country, so by limiting possessions, they can limit the potential damage Toledo can do at the offensive end. It boils down to the visitors making shots and I think they can. Three times in conference play, Akron has scored at least 84 points. Toledo is allowing 72.8 points over its L5 games. 10* Akron

8* Northeastern (7:00 ET): These teams just met on Monday. UNC Wilmington won 74-68 as a 2.5-point underdog. What’s remarkable about that spread is UNC Wilmington entered the game with a perfect conference record. Northeastern is still winless in the CAA this season! It was also UNC Wilmington’s eighth consecutive victory against the spread and ninth win in a row overall (straight up). But all but ONE of those lined victories came as an underdog. Tonight the Seahawks are favored for just the second time since December 1st!

Pulling off four consecutive upsets, not to mention seven in your last eight games, is a remarkable achievement and that is what UNC Wilmington has done. Clearly, they have made the oddsmakers look a little foolish. But all good things must end, and now as a favorite, they are ready to be faded. Northeastern actually shot much better in the game Monday night (46.3% to 40.0%). The key was that UNCW made eight threes to N’eastern’s four and they were also +8 in FT makes. 

N’eastern actually led at the break Monday. It is telling that despite being 0-8 SU in conference play that the Huskies are only a slight dog to the first place team, on the road. UNC Wilmington’s average margin of victory in conference play is less than five points per game. They’ve yet to win by double digits and three of the wins have come by four points or less. Four of Northeastern’s conference losses have been by six points or less. This is simply a case of regression/progression to the mean. 8* Northeastern

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): JMU is off one of the worst “beats” in recent memory as they, as a three-point favorite, fell “victim” to a last second three. The Dukes still won the game 95-94, but if you bet them (like I did), that was some “tough luck.” 

That one-point win (over College of Charleston) took place Saturday night. It was the fourth straight ATS loss for JMU, although they have won two of the games straight up. Three have been decided by four points or less. The oddsmakers are expecting another close tonight vs. Drexel, but I do think the Dukes break through and cover the spread in this one. They have been a strong home team all year, winning 8 of 10 games here and averaging 82.1 PPG. Each of the last two games have seen a three-pointer hit at the buzzer. The last one, as I already mentioned, cost them a cover. The previous one was even more heartbreaking as they lost 71-70 to UNC Wilmington. 

While it is a little concerning how JMU has given up 90+ points in three of its last four games, don’t look for Drexel to do anywhere close to that kind of damage at the offensive end tonight. The Dragons are off a horrible loss, as 15-point favorites, to the worst team in the league (that being William & Mary). That came at home. JMU, while shooting over 50% themselves at home this season, is limiting the opposition to 40.3% here. This is the Dukes’ fourth straight game at home and they’ve only been an underdog one time since conference play began. Drexel has only been favored once. So I see the home side covering the short number, this time. 10* James Madison

8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska (5:00 ET): Well, taking the Under the last time Wisconsin took the floor turned out to be the incorrect play. But, if at first you don’t succeed, then try again. Tonight’s matchup seems far more conducive to an Under, even though the opponent (Nebraska) is not so hot defensively. I think the big key is that Nebraska - unlike Michigan State - is simply incapable of scoring 86 points. That’s how many Michigan State put up on the Badgers last Friday. 

This will be Nebraska’s first game in 10 days due to COVID. This matchup was originally set to take place on Tuesday, but the Cornhuskers were dealing with health and safety protocol. Last Saturday’s game vs. Ohio State also had to be postponed. So I would not be surprised if it’s a “sluggish” start from the home team in this one. It’s also unlikely that the Cornhuskers will EVER get hot from three-point range tonight; they are sinking only 29.8% of their 3PA for the season! It’s been a tough season in Lincoln. 

The key here is Nebraska keeping Wisconsin’s offense in check. Fortunately, the Badgers are second in the country at turning the ball over. I don’t think that’s going to lead to an abundance of points for Nebraska, but it will lead to plenty of empty possessions by the road team. The Cornhuskers are second in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin played without its third leading scorer in the last game and got just seven bench points. Their Over streak, now at eight games, is due to end. 8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska

10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): The current leaders in the WAC have won seven in a row and now stand at 15-4 SU on the year. They’ve yet to drop a conference game and have covered the spread against five of their six WAC opponents thus far. I’ll look for the trend to continue tonight when Seattle hosts Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks, in their maiden season in the conference, currently stand at only 12-7 SU after suffering a 14-point loss at home to New Mexico State on Saturday. They are now just 1-5 ATS in their L6 games. 

Seattle is coming off a 76-68 win at Tarleton State where they were actually 1.5-point underdogs. It was the second straight outright win as a dog for the Redhawks, who also beat Abilene Christian 72-62 on the road two days earlier, as a six-point dog. As to why the team is performing so well of late, you can probably credit the defense, which is holding the opposition to below 40% shooting in conference play. That’s a problem for SF Austin St, which has been below 40% in three of its last four games. 

The Redhawks are the better team here and with the home court advantage, they should clearly be bigger favorites. They’ve gone 11-1 SU at home and averaged 80.7 PPG. So it’s not just the defense. Last time SF Austin St ventured on the road, they shot a hideous 26.2% from the floor in a 49-41 loss to Sam Houston State. This isn’t the Southland anymore and these road trips are about to get more daunting for the Lumberjacks, who are set to hit the West Coast for the first time as a WAC member. This number is way too short. 10* Seattle U

8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): Taking a flier on Seton Hall here as they have revenge and are off their worst loss of the season. The revenge angle stems from a controversial 73-72 loss to Marquette 11 days ago, a game that was decided on a late foul (which really could have gone either way). The bad loss came Saturday, 84-63 to St. John’s, a team the Pirates had just beaten at MSG two days prior. The loss occurred in historic Walsh Gymnasium and saw SH play without Bryce Aiken, who has been in concussion protocol ever since the loss to Marquette. Even if Aiken does not return here, I still believe in the Pirates and think this is an opportune time to “sell high” on Marquette. 

It was back on Jan 4 that I took Marquette in what ended up being an 88-56 romp over Providence. I took them again in their next game and they crushed Georgetown 92-64. A third straight double digit win (87-76 over DePaul) followed. Since then, the Golden Eagles have rattled off three consecutive upsets, all over ranked teams, to make it a six-game win streak. Now they come in ranked (#22) and are seemingly one of the hottest teams in the country. But two of those wins, the one over Seton Hall and then later a three-point win at Villanova, easily could have gone the other way. 

Seton Hall had a huge rebounding edge (47-26) in the first meeting, but could not overcome 20 turnovers. The other thing that hurt them was Marquette shooting much better from three-point range. With the rematch set to take place at home, the Pirates should take better care of the basketball and shoot better from behind the arc. Leading scorer Jared Rhoden, who was 6 of 28 on FG attempts in the L2 games, should be far more efficient and PG Richmond is a lock to improve after his disastrous showing Saturday (0 for 8 from the field). Aiken returning would be the “cherry on top,” but not necessary for SH to pull off a much-needed win. 8* Seton Hall

8* Missouri (8:30 ET): Auburn is now ranked #1 for the first time in program history. This puts a big target on their back every game. I know that it’s been a great run of form for Bruce Pearl’s team as they have covered the spread in each of their last eight games. But Tuesday is a total letdown spot as the Tigers are coming off a home win against Kentucky and have Oklahoma (SEC/Big 12 Challenge) and rival Alabama on deck. Laying double digits on the road, they are ready to be faded here. 

Missouri has been a bit schizophrenic of late. But they have covered the number in each of the last three games. They’ve not been favored in a single SEC game so far. So the fact they are 2-4 SU in conference play isn’t that bad. They beat Alabama, as a 14-point underdog, here in Columbia. They also won by 25 at Ole Miss last week, a game where the Tigers were +7.5. Over the weekend, they fell in a rematch with Alabama, but easily covered the 18-point spread. They actually led by as many as 14 in that game. 

Three-point shooting has been pretty lousy for Mizzou all year. But there were signs of a turnaround in their last game, as they made 11 of 24 from behind the arc against Bama. Auburn will not shoot 56.8% again like they did vs. UK on Saturday. They trailed at halftime in that game, but scored 51 points over the final 20 minutes. Auburn’s last four road games have brought three single digit wins. We don’t even need that tonight. Look for the home dog to stay within the number here. Take the points. 8* Missouri

9* TX Southern (8:30 ET): The last time I took Texas Southern, things went VERY well as the Tigers annihilated Mississippi Valley State 95-58. What followed (for them) were two close, painful losses - by one at Alcorn State and by three at Jackson State. But home court appears to be a “panacea” as they returned to Houston on Saturday and crushed Alabama A&M. The Tigers have only played three home games this season. But they are 3-0 and have won by 19, 37 and 34 points! 

So I’ll lay the number here. Can’t guarantee it will get as ugly as the last time I took them, or even Saturday. But Texas Southern is clearly a “different team” at home and shouldn’t have much difficulty thrashing Alabama State, who is 1-11 SU on the road so far. The Hornets just lost at Prairie View A&M, who is very bad, 70-67 on Saturday. They covered, but the fact they were underdogs speaks volumes. This is a bad basketball team. 

Consider that when Alabama State hosted Alabama A&M, they won by just four points. That’s the same opponent that TX Southern just beat by 34. For each of the last three games, Alabama State has been below 38 percent shooting. This is a team that’s been beaten by double digits on nine separate occasions this year. 9* TX Southern

8* Binghamton (7:30 ET): Both of these teams come into Monday riding three-game ATS win streaks. But I’m not sure a 3-11 Hartford team deserves to be favored on the road, against anyone. The Hawks had nearly a month off (due to cancellations/postponements) when they beat New Hampshire 69-57 last week. They returned to their “losing ways” over the weekend, falling at Vermont 82-72. There’s really no shame in that loss (Hartford was +15.5), but again … a road favorite? 

Binghamton is 4-2 in conference play, so they’ve gotten in a lot more games than Hartford. Playing regularly keeps you in rhythm and thus I expect the Bearcats to be in better form this evening. They are off a 68-57 win over New Jersey Tech on Saturday, which was a revenge spot. With the next two games both coming against Hartford, there’s a real shot for Binghamton to put some distance between themselves and the middle of the pack in the America East. The only two teams ahead of them right now are Vermont and Stony Brook. 

Last time at home, Binghamton lost by three to Stony Brook in a game that could have gone either way. It was their second straight home loss, so motivation should be high coming into tonight. After not playing a single game for nearly a month, Hartford is now playing for a third time in less than a week. The Hawks are just 2-7 in “true” road games this year and after shooting 50%+ in the last two games, I see a downturn tonight. Take the points. 8* Binghamton

10* Under Towson/Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware finds itself on a five-game Over streak. They’ve shot 50% or better and scored 80+ points in four of the games. But they probably can’t keep that up. Those numbers aren’t demonstrably higher than what the Blue Hens are doing at the offensive end for the balance of the year. But it’s really hard to keep up an offensive stretch like that for a long period of time. Plus, Delaware surprisingly shoots WORSE at home (where they are tonight), making only 44.9% of their total FG attempts. 

Tonight, the Blue Hens run into a Towson team that can play some defense. The visiting Tigers are holding the opposition to 40.4% shooting for the year and 65.4 PPG. They did just give up 81 in a loss to UNC Wilmington over the weekend, but that game went to overtime and was tied 65-65 at the end of regulation. In their previous game, Towson had held Charleston to just 32.9% shooting. None of the Tigers’ previous nine opponents have scored 70 in regulation. 

Delaware can play some defense too; they are allowing just 40.3% shooting at home this year. Neither of these two teams play incredibly fast. Both are outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo. Towson is actually 320th in adjusted tempo, which means their preferred pace is VERY slow. With both teams playing their second game in three days, I look for the Under to cash in this Monday CAA matchup. This is a high O/U line for Towson, who is 6-2 Under when the total is 140 to 149.5. 10* Under Towson/Delaware

8* St. Louis (2:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from a game played on Thursday, which UMass (surprisingly) won 91-88. The Minutemen were three-point underdogs for that one, at home, but now must head to St. Louis where they’ve won just once in their last 10 tries. The Minutemen are also 1-7 SU away from home this season, including 0-4 in “true” road games. The likelihood of them matching their shooting from Thursday’s game is not likely here. St. Louis is holding visiting teams to 38.2% shooting this year. 

From the Billikens’ perspective, what made Thursday’s loss so disappointing is that they got a season-high 23 points from Gibson Jimerson as well as a career-best 20 points from Fred Thatch Jr. Of the two teams, St. Louis is far more likely to match Thursday’s offensive effort. I say that because UMass has been just dreadful at the defensive end all season. The Minutemen are allowing over 80 PPG on 50.2% shooting in conference play. All five A-10 opponents have scored at least 77 against them. 

My power ratings suggest a double digit spread here, so there’s value on the home team. UMass had lost six of seven, including all four conference games, prior to the upset on Thursday. St. Louis has covered the spread off each of its last three losses, all those games coming at home. While just 11-6 SU on the year, the Billikens could have a much better record. Five of their six losses have been by six points or less. Look for them to get their revenge with an emphatic win on Sunday. Lay the points. 8* St. Louis

8* UMKC (8:00 ET): The Roos proved to be a “bad take” the last time I had them (Monday vs. Denver) vs. they quickly bounced back with an 80-77 win over North Dakota State on Thursday. That win came as a two-point home underdog as they put together an excellent second half, rallying from a seven-point deficit at the break. I don’t know what happened on Monday when they lost outright to Denver, a team that had lost 10 in a row on the road, 63-55 as an 8.5-point favorite. This should be UMKC’s best performance in awhile. 

They host North Dakota, a team that also surprised me this week when it hung with Summit League power Oral Roberts. The line was +20.5 for the Fighting Hawks and they easily covered, only losing the game by a four-point margin. But it was still their seventh loss in a row and 10th in the last 11 games. North Dakota’s only win since November came against a non-board team. They are 4-15 SU overall and two of those wins came in the first three games of the season. 

The Fighting Hawks are 0-9 SU in “true” road games, losing by an average of 18.4 PPG. Going back further, they are 10-29 ATS L39 road games. As an underdog, they are 5-11 ATS and losing by an average of 13.1 PPG. I really see them struggling to keep up with Kansas City here, especially with them allowing 50% shooting in conference play. UMKC is holding teams to 38.1% shooting here at home. My power rankings say this line should be much higher and I won’t disagree! 8* UMKC

9* North Alabama (4:30 ET): I love dabbling in these smaller conferences as that’s often where the most value is. Such is the case today in the Atlantic Sun where North Alabama hosts Stetson. Now both of these teams have been struggling in 2022. North Alabama has dropped six of seven with the one win coming by a single point. Stetson has dropped three in a row and four of its last five. But the key is home court advantage. Having it, North Alabama should be a much bigger favorite in this spot. 

The Lions have won six of seven at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 28.6 PPG! Now that’s a little skewed by them posting three blowout wins over non-DI teams. However, their last win came here in Florence as they upended Eastern Kentucky as 5.5-point underdogs. That’s an EKU team I just won with earlier this week. Since that win, the Lions have dropped two straight on the road, but one of them was in overtime. North Alabama has the distinction of having faced Gonzaga & Auburn this year (#1 and #2), so they won’t be intimidated by anyone from the A-Sun. 

Stetson is a team that’s only been favored in two games all year. Both times they were favored by two points or less. The Hatters are underdogs here, but it’s a short number. My point is this is typically not a team that the oddsmakers expect to win. They are 2-6 SU on the road. Earlier in the week, Stetson lost in OT to Florida Gulf Coast, which was extra painful as they battled back from a 15-point halftime deficit at home. The two games prior saw them average just 49.5 points. 9* North Alabama

10* James Madison (4:00 ET): Both of these Colonial teams got off to respectable starts to the season, but after dealing with multiple cancellations because of COVID-19, conference play has been a surprising struggle. James Madison is a team I’ve won with before; I took them as a slight favorite when they crushed Northeastern 89-66 earlier this month. But since that win, the Dukes are 0-3 ATS including an ugly loss on the road to Elon and a loss at the buzzer to UNC Wilmington on Thursday. Between them and Charleston, I think JMU is the more likely team to bounce back on Saturday. 

Charleston is 0-4 ATS in CAA play, winning only one game straight up. That win was over the Elon team that blew JMU out. But the difference is Charleston got Elon at home. On Thursday, Charleston lost 74-67 to Towson as they could only score 24 points in the first half, a season-low for the team. Now 1-6 ATS in the L7 games overall, the Cougars are playing their second road game in three days, a scenario they’ve yet to face this season. On the road, this team is shooting just 40.4%.

The loss suffered by James Madison on Thursday was just their second at home all season. This is a team my power ratings have felt has been underrated for awhile; they beat Virginia here at home! For the year, JMU is averaging 80.7 PPG at home while giving up only 61.6. They are shooting 50.5% from the field here (38.5% from three) while allowing just 39.3% overall shooting (27.9% from three). At the end of the day, I just can’t see the Dukes dropping a three straight game as chalk. 10* James Madison

8* Nevada (11:00 ET): It’s been a tough run for the Wolf Pack as of late, particularly at the betting window. This team hasn’t covered a spread since November, although that’s a little misleading as they only played three games in December. One of those was not lined (against MN-Duluth), but it’s still an 0-6 ATS run heading into Friday. Nevada is 3-3 straight up in those six games, alternating wins and losses along the way. They are off a loss here, 77-67 to Wyoming, so if the pattern holds that means they are set to get back in the win column. A win would almost certainly mean a cover. That’s what I’m banking on here. 

Now Fresno State comes into Reno on a bit of a run. The Bulldogs have won and covered three straight, beating San Jose State, UNLV and Utah State, all as a favorite. FSU is 12-4 ATS on the year, which is one of the best cover rates in the country, but Nevada is an opponent that has given them all sorts of trouble through the years. The last eight head to head meetings have all been won by the Wolf Pack, including two double digit decisions here in Reno last season. 

Now it was a home loss for Nevada last time out. It was close most of the way vs. Wyoming, but things got away from the Wolf Pack down the stretch. The final margin was the most they trailed by the entire game. I see this team being eager to not lose two in a row at home. They’ve got the oddsmakers’ respect being favored against Wyoming and Fresno State, two of the four Mountain West teams that are 13-4 SU or better. That’s probably because all four of FSU’s losses this season have come on the road where they are averaging only 62.9 PPG. 8* Nevada

8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin (9:00 ET): I happen to think both of these teams are slightly overrated. Do they belong in the Top 25? Yes. But not top 15 and in the case of Wisconsin, definitely not top 10. Despite losing last night, Purdue remains the favorite in the Big 10. As for who is the second best team in the conference, I’d point to another team that is in action tonight, that being Illinois. 

But now to the game that’s taking place tonight. Wisconsin is on two separate seven-game streaks right now. Not only have they won seven in a row, all seven wins have gone Over the total. (They’ve also covered the spread in five straight). I think the O/U streak is the one more likely to be snapped tonight. While this O/U is in line with most recent games, the Badgers probably won’t shoot as well here as they did Tuesday at Northwestern (51.9%). They scored 41 points in each half. 

Michigan State hasn’t played since Saturday when they saw their nine-game win streak come to an end, 64-62 at the hands of Northwestern. The Spartans lost despite holding N’western to 34.8% shooting. It was the second straight game decided by two points for Sparty. Previously, they’d beaten Minnesota 71-69. They hold teams to just 65.6 PPG and 29% from behind the three-point arc. Wisconsin doesn’t turn the ball over much (fewest in the country!), but has also been LIVING at the free throw line, which may not continue. 8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin

10* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Oral Roberts is looking to keep pace with South Dakota State (who handed them their lone conference loss) in the Summit League. The Eagles are flying high with a 6-1 SU conference record and have won five straight since going down 82-76 at SDSU back on December 22nd (did cover as 9-point underdogs). It’s a fairly easy matchup on the docket for Thursday, one that I believe ORU is going to win in blowout fashion. 

North Dakota is at the opposite end of the Summit League spectrum right now. The Fighting Hawks are 0-5 SU in conference play and 4-14 SU overall this season. Things have been pretty ugly for some time now as they’ve dropped 13 of the last 15 games and both wins were against non-DI opponents. The last time ND won a game was December 14th. Their eight road games have all resulted in defeat, by an average of almost 20 PPG. They’ve covered the spread in just one of them. This promises to be one of the toughest road trips of the season. 

Oral Roberts has covered seven of its last eight games. They have dominated at home this season, averaging 90.7 PPG while allowing only 59.4. I expect the margin of victory tonight to approach 30 points. The Eagles are shooting above 44% from three at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 27.1%. North Dakota is getting torched on the defensive end with the first five conference opponents shooting better than 50%.. The Fighting Hawks are 24-47 ATS their L71 games, including 9-29 on the road. 10* Oral Roberts

8* Georgetown (5:00 ET): Things have gone rather poorly for the Hoyas of late. They’ve lost four in a row, including three straight by double digits to open Big East play. COVID-19 has certainly played a significant role with even HC Patrick Ewing having to miss games. Ewing is expected back on the bench tonight though and I’m expecting a bit of an inspired effort. It also helps that G’town is facing an opponent that’s also been in a battle with COVID, causing them to be inactive for nearly two weeks. 

That would be Providence, a team who I already felt was overrated and not worthy of being ranked in the Top 25. The Friars have the #1 “luck rating” (per KenPom) in the country this season. Their record is 14-2 and they are ranked #21 in the country coming into this game. However, my power ratings don’t even think of them as a top 45 team. After a 12-day layoff, expect the Friars to struggle a bit here, especially at the outset. 

Earlier this month, before their COVID pause, I played against Providence twice. The first play went even better than expected as the Friars got destroyed by Marquette, 88-56, thus proving my point about them being overrated. Two days later, they bounced back with an 83-73 win over St. John’s (at home), but note they were down at halftime in that one. Georgetown is desperate and with Providence coming off such an extended (unplanned) layoff, I’m taking the points. 8* Georgetown

8* Villanova (8:00 ET): This pains me a bit as Marquette treated me so nicely in convincing victories over Providence (88-56) and Georgetown (92-64) earlier this month. The Golden Eagles have now won four in a row after home wins over DePaul and Seton Hall in the L10 days. But they’re running into an even hotter - and better - squad this evening. Villanova is currently ranked #11 in the country and probably ought to be even higher. Both KenPom and my own power ratings have the Wildcats as a top five team. 

‘Nova certainly looked like a Top 5 team on Sunday when they blasted Butler for a 40-point win. That was the Wildcats’ sixth consecutive victory, four of those coming by 15 points or greater. The 82-42 beatdown of Butler tied their largest MOV for the season, matching what they did all the way back in the very first game (beat Mount St. Mary’s 91-51). Jay Wright’s team shot almost 60% overall from the floor on Sunday and was 12 of 19 from three-point range. 

 Now you may be thinking it will be difficult to repeat that kind of performance. That’s true, but we also don’t need a 40-point win here. Villanova is 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 29.1 PPG though! Marquette had some shooting issues in the 2H vs. Seton Hall on Saturday, a game they won by a single point on a late free throw. The ultra-slow tempo that Nova likes to play at will bother the Golden Eagles here. As good as they’ve looked recently, Marquette is still not a Top 40 team in the country. 8* Villanova

10* Navy (7:00 ET): Navy will look to continue its mastery of Lehigh as it looks to stay atop the Patriot League standings after tonight. The Midshipmen come in sporting a 5-1 SU conference record, tied with Loyola MD for first place. All the Patriot League teams are in action Wednesday, including Loyola, who is also at home against Boston U. Of the co-leaders, the Middies have the easier matchup. They are 4-0 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against Lehigh, who comes in at just 6-12 SU overall on the year. 

Now Lehigh has been a bit pesky as an underdog this season, covering all four times the oddsmakers have given them 12.5 or more points. But the Mountain Hawks also lost all four of those games - to Rutgers, Virginia, Maryland and Yale - three of them by double digits. There was a 4-1 run to open conference play, including a rather shocking 97-64 win at Bucknell (as 3.5-point underdog), however Lehigh then “came back down to Earth” on Sunday, losing at Loyola MD by 12 as a two-point home dog. 

Navy is only 4-3 SU at home in 2021-22, which is somewhat surprising. Their lone conference loss did occur here in Annapolis, 69-50 to Colgate, just last Thursday. But the Midshipmen quickly responded by sinking Boston U on the road, 72-65, on Sunday. I can’t see them dropping B2B home games in league play. This Navy team plays solid defense as it gives up only 59.9 PPG. They are 9-2 ATS when favored this season and 27-10 ATS in the chalk role the L3 seasons. This number should be closer to -20. 10* Navy

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): While I don’t think UNC Asheville is going to win the Big South this year, the Bulldogs can certainly still be a “player” in the mix. But first they’ll need to get back on track after suffering a couple of close defeats. The previous seven days brought heartbreak against both Winthrop and USC Upstate as Asheville lost those respective games in overtime and in the closing seconds. They were 8.5 point favorites here at home against USC Upstate on Saturday. I can’t see B2B losses as home chalk. 

Against Winthrop, the Bulldogs had a decided edge in three-point shooting, but couldn’t stop the Eagles from inside the arc. Winthrop went a somewhat insane 31 of 49 on 2PA in that game. Then against USC Upstate, it was three-point shooting that killed Asheville. They let the opponents hit 60% from behind the arc while only hitting 15% themselves. I’m definitely sensing there will be a “reversal” in shooting percentage tonight as the Bulldogs face a team that’s shooting just 42.5% overall for the season, including 31.3% from three. 

North Carolina A&T had won four straight before running into High Point on Saturday. That 78-71 loss was the Aggies’ first setback in league play thus far. But this team is just 2-8 SU in “true” road games as well as 2-8 SU as an underdog. This line looks a bit “short,” doesn’t it? UNC Asheville is allowing only 59.4 PPG and 26.7% shooting from three this season at home, where it is 7-2 SU. The gap between these teams is bigger than what this number reflects. 8* UNC Asheville

8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston, who was in the Final Four last season, is a team I believe should have been in the Top 10 long ago. They’re finally there after seven straight wins, most of which have been by double digits. But the Cougars did survive a close one Saturday at Tulsa, holding on for a two-point win as 11-point favorites. Injuries continue to mount for Kelvin Sampson’s team, but note they were up 17 at the half on Tulsa. Here they face a team that just beat by 17 on the road earlier this month. 

Including the one vs. Houston, South Florida had lost its first three conference games by an average of just over 14 PPG. But the Bulls then pulled off a somewhat shocking result on Saturday, beating UCF 75-51 as an eight-point dog. But that was at home and the opponent had an absolutely miserable shooting night, making only 33.3% for the game including 2 of 20 from three-point range. That led to USF’s biggest margin of victory over UCF in seven years. The other key was a near 2:1 rebounding edge (53-26). 

All of the Bulls’ victories this season have come when they have an edge on the boards. That is unlikely to happen tonight as Houston typically controls the glass and will be using a larger lineup due to the injuries in the backcourt. The Cougars are 9-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of almost 30 PPG. USF is shooting just 38.4% for the season and can’t count on UH shooting the ball as poorly as UCF did. The Cougars have won all five meetings the L3 seasons, four of them by 17+ points. 8* Houston

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): UConn has (finally) cracked the Top 25 this week, but this is a team I’ve considered “worthy of being ranked” for some time now. The Huskies are actually 15th in my own personal power ratings. Were they a bit fortunate to get by St. John’s, in overtime, last Wednesday? Yes, they were. They tied the game on a foul shot with just 1.3 seconds left in regulation. But it was also a much-deserved result following close losses to Providence and Seton Hall. 

UConn has already played four OT games this season. After some postponements around the holiday, each of the L2 games have required “extra time.” But this one won’t as the Huskies host a Butler team that’s coming off a 40-point loss at Villanova on Sunday. UConn has been excellent in Storrs this season, going 7-1 and outscoring teams by almost 26 PPG. Their overall scoring margin for the season (+15.1 PPG) ranks 17th nationally and they are averaging 80.3 PPG, which is 24th. 

UConn had another postponement on Saturday as they were set to face Providence. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here. They’ve been off for five days while Butler is playing its third road game in five days and second in the last 72 hours. While Sunday was their worst loss of the season, the Bulldogs have been getting blown out regularly. Six times they’ve been beaten by at least 15 points. Tonight figures to add to that list. Rebounding has been a major concern thus far for Butler and UConn is strong on the boards. 8* Connecticut

10* Eastern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky’s maiden season in the Atlantic Sun Conference (they were formerly in the Ohio Valley Conference) has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start. The Colonels are 0-4 SU/ATS in league play and what’s shocking about that is the fact they were favored in all four games! Almost every game has been close and tonight is a spot where I figure EKU is set to get back on track. They are hosting a Lipscomb team that’s lost three in a row and is just 8-11 SU on the season. 

Now EKU is only 8-10 SU, but this number set by the oddsmakers really “speaks volumes” doesn’t it? The Colonels’ record really should be a whole lot better as they are 0-5 SU in games decided by five points or less. The first season in a new conference can be tough, but what is killing EKU right now is that they are shooting just 37.4% vs. A-Sun opponents. You’ve got to figure that number will improve, while at the same time they won’t be letting teams shoot 50.9% against them. At home, the Colonels are averaging 86.1 PPG while allowing only 67.7.

Lipscomb has shot 52.8% so far in conference play, yet is only 1-3 SU in those four games, which should tell you something about how poorly they play defense. The Bisons are giving up over 80 PPG for the year and the last four road games have seen them allow 88, 93, 95 and 97! This is the first ever trip to Richmond, KY for Lipscomb and it doesn’t figure to go well. Look for the home team to record its first ever A-Sun victory! 10* Eastern Kentucky

10* UMKC (8:00 ET): Kansas City (UMKC) is a Summit League side that I feel has been underrated by the oddsmakers most of this season. This isn’t the first time I’ve backed the Roos. Back in December, they came through as a 10* play for me, beating Green Bay 64-55. They’ve gone just 3-3 SU in six games since that win and lost 84-72 as a 4.5-point home dog to Oral Roberts over the weekend. But this shapes up as the easiest matchup since that win over Green Bay over a month ago. I’m laying the number. 

Denver will be playing its third road game in five days here. That’s a tough spot, especially for a team that’s a hideous 1-11 SU away from home this season. They are 0-10 SU in “true” road games, including losses to South Dakota and South Dakota State last week. The Pioneers gave up 80 points in both games and never really threatened either time. They’ve now lost three in a row overall and their last four defeats have all been by nine points or more. 

UMKC has been a rather dominant home team thus far. They are 5-1 SU here and have outscored opponents by 27.6 points per game! They are scoring 81.8 PPG and allowing just 54.2. I expect solid shooting in this game from the Roos as Denver is giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play. Certainly, the home team is due for an uptick in shooting after making only 39.7% in their first four Summit League games.They are shooting 48.7% from the floor at home. The Roos captured both meetings last season by a 12 point margin. 10* UMKC

8* Portland (7:00 ET): Portland has been a hot team at the betting window, covering the spread in each of its last four contests. Last time out, the Pilots evened their SU conference record at 1-1 with a rather dominating 82-63 win at Pepperdine. What was impressive about that showing wasn’t just the fact that Portland was a 6.5-point road underdog, but that they were also coming off a narrow OT loss just 48 hours prior. This team easily could be 4-0 SU (as well as 4-0 ATS) its last four games as the two losses have been by a total of seven points. I’m definitely taking the points here. 

Meanwhile, Loyola Marymount is reeling a bit as they’ve dropped B2B games to open the WCC schedule, both on the road. After getting waxed 97-73 by San Francisco (2nd best team in the league), the Lions were upset (as three-point favorites) at San Diego on Saturday. LMU has now dropped four of five overall with three of the losses coming by exactly five points. Their lone win in that stretch came at Bellarmine. 

Loyola Marymount will be thrilled to be back home after, like Portland, playing its last four games on the road. But home court advantage alone does not justify a double digit spread here. The Lions have actually lost two straight at home, losing to New Mexico State and Grand Canyon, both times as a short favorite. I’m a little shocked at how big this number is, considering that Portland has held the L4 opponents to an average of 61 PPG in regulation. In both losses, they had a halftime lead. An outright upset would not surprise me here. 8* Portland

8* St. John’s (4:30 ET): The Red Storm suffered another tough loss on Wednesday, falling 86-78 at UConn in overtime. It was a game they thought they had won when Julian Champagnie hit a three-pointer with 4.8 seconds left in regulation, giving the Johnnies a 71-70 lead. But a late foul call, on a putback attempt, allowed for UConn to tie the game by making one of two free throw attempts. For St. John’s, that loss comes on the heels of blowing a halftime lead at Providence (and losing 83-73) last Saturday. 

On Sunday afternoon, the Johnnies are catching the right team. Georgetown has lost three in a row, all at home, as COVID has played a role. Two double digit scorers and coach Patrick Ewing were out for Thursday’s 72-58 loss to Butler. That came after a game I played against the Hoyas. They were three-point underdogs at Marquette on 1/7 and ended up losing 92-64. Ewing really ripped the team after that one, but as of yet, his words have had zero effect. G’town is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and this will be just their second “true” road game. 

All nine St. John’s wins this season have been at home where they are averaging 84.9 PPG. A possibly depleted G’town squad isn’t going to be able to stay within that kind of number. Even if they were at full strength, I wouldn’t like the Hoyas’ chances here. The Red Storm have three double-digit scorers, led by Champagnie’s 21.2 PPG. This is a team that’s better than its record. The oddsmakers seem to know that and I’ll lay the number. 8* St. John’s

10* Texas (2:00 ET): Still not sold on Iowa State’s #15 rating as they are outside the top 40 in my own power ratings. The Cyclones have won just ONE of their last 22 Big XII games and that was by four points over Texas Tech last week. They are coming off B2B road losses here, the first of which was at Oklahoma last Saturday. ISU was a six-point dog to an unranked team there, which should tell you all you need to know. They were double digit dogs at Kansas on Wednesday and lost by one, 62-61. 

Texas just beat Oklahoma, though in Austin, 66-52 and comes into this game ranked #22. I’ve got them higher at #15 in my own power ratings, so it’s not at all surprising to see the Longhorns favored here in Ames. What I really like about this team is the fact they lead in the country in scoring defense at 53.0 PPG allowed. Against Oklahoma, they allowed just 40% shooting, including 1 of 13 from three-point range. Only Gonzaga, all the way back in the second game of the season, has been able to crack 64 against UT. 

Iowa State trailed Kansas by nine late in the game Wednesday. They shot just 40.7%. That was after shooting 55% against Oklahoma, an effort negated by them allowing 61.7% shooting in the same game. It was a poor shooting effort in the victory over Texas Tech at 30%. I’m just going to stick with what I said last Saturday when taking OU minus the points. The Cyclones are due to tumble out of the Top 25. Their recent offensive showings tell me it could be an ugly day at that end here. 10* Texas

10* Richmond (9:00 ET): This is a critical home game for Richmond, who already has two conference losses. They welcome in a Davidson team that is 13-2 SU overall and 3-0 in A-10 play. I say the Spiders should still be the favorites here; they are 7-1 SU at home and have had Davidson’s number the last few years. Head to head, Richmond has won seven of the last nine head to head matchups while also going 8-1 ATS. The circumstances dictate that they’ll be the more “desperate” (and aggressive) team tonight. 

Richmond did pick up its first league win last time out, beating UMass 80-72. They failed to cover the spread, but it was 10.5 points. Just a win is all we need here and the schedule certainly sets up well for the Spiders. That win against UMass took place on January 5th, nine days ago. They’ve had two games postponed since. Davidson was in action this past Tuesday, also against UMass (won 77-67). The Wildcats have actually played two games in the time since Richmond last took the court. 

The other was a 72-68 win over Rhode Island. Like the game vs. UMass, that was at home. Davidson is 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in “true” road games thus far, but save for the cross-country trip to face San Francisco (which they lost), this is the toughest one. The Wildcats didn’t cover in either of those last two victories and Richmond is a place where they’ve lost AND failed to cover three straight times. Note that Richmond was up 19 at the half over UMass and won comfortably despite the Minutemen shooting 55% from three. This spot sets us quite well for the home team. 10* Richmond

10* Arizona (11:00 ET): There are two other Pac 12 teams (#3 UCLA, #5 USC) ranked higher in the polls than #6 Arizona coming into tonight. But I believe the Wildcats are the best team in this conference. Assuming they handle their business the rest of this week, they will pass USC, who just suffered its first loss of the season. Tonight, ‘Zona faces a Colorado team that’s won five straight, but really isn’t a threat. The game is in Tucson where the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 this season, winning by an average margin of nearly 35 points per game! 

Now Arizona has failed to cover each of its last four games. But three of those saw them favored by more than 24 points. Those three games saw them win by double digits each time, every win coming by 16 pts or greater. Mixed in was a four-point loss to a good Tennessee team (#22) on the road, their only defeat all season. So far the Wildcats have played two conference games and they defeated Oregon State by 25 and Washington by 16. This is one of just eight teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Not only do they lead the country in scoring at 89.9 PPG, but they play VERY fast (third in adjusted tempo). 

There’s a pretty sizable gap between the top three and everyone else in the Pac 12. Colorado is about to find out that Arizona isn’t just one of the best in the conference, but in the entire country. The Buffaloes prefer to slow the game down, but for the reasons listed above, it’s going to be difficult to play that kind of game here. CU is 0-9 SU in Tucson since joining the Pac 12 a decade ago. While the Buffs may be on a five-game win streak, all those victories came in Boulder. Alarming is how they’ve shot just 22% from three-point range away from home this season. Their only “true” road game came at UCLA and they lost there by 12. This one promises to be even uglier. Lay the points. 10* Arizona

8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): Michigan State comes into this game ranked #10 in the country, which seems too high. My power rankings obviously still consider Sparty to be a Top 25 team, but Top 10 seems a “bit rich.” I was set to fade them on Saturday when they were scheduled to hit the road to face unranked Michigan, who was a slight favorite to win. But that game had to be postponed due to COVID. Might that interruption have an adverse effect on the Spartans tonight? I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

This is also a revenge game for underdog Minnesota, who was 7-0 SU back when they hosted MSU in the Big 10 opener back on 12/8. The Golden Gophers ended up losing that game 75-67, on what was a poor shooting night for them (just 26.1% from three), and falling into a 13-point halftime hole was the key. Even though they’re now on the road, and off back to back losses, look for a better start from the Gophers tonight. This is a critical game for them as they are off to a 1-3 start in Big 10 play. 

Back to the cancellation from Saturday, Michigan State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has played with five or six days rest. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially considering the Spartans’ issues turning the ball over. They did not cover a similar spread vs. Nebraska last week. While 13-2 SU looks nice, MSU hasn’t exactly played a “murderers row” in the Big 10 thus far. Minnesota has had to face Illinois and Indiana and shot just 20% from three-point range in those two losses. Expect more shots to fall for them tonight and they’ll stay within the number as a result. Take the points. 8* Minnesota

10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For those that even bother to dig “this deep” into the College Basketball card, there may be some sense of surprise that a 9-7 team is favored by so many points against an 11-4 team. But, with this number, oddsmakers are basically telling you what they think of Wofford and Samford and I agree that the disparity is wide. Wofford will be going for their ninth straight head to head win in this SoCon rivalry. The previous eight have been by an average of 10 points, which is what the line is currently (as of this writing). 

Safe to say that Samford won’t be able to match the performance they turned in for the last game. Facing one of the weaker teams in the league (Western Carolina), the Bulldogs shot 50% from the field while allowing just 33.9% en route to an 85-60 blowout. It was their largest MOV all season, even more than the two times they faced a non-DI foe. BUT, this is a team that has an incredible FIVE wins by two points or less. Two of those were against “power conference” teams (Ole Miss, Oregon St), but I believe tonight’s game will more closely resemble the Bulldogs’ recent trip to Furman, where they lost by 32 points. 

Wofford probably feels like they “let one get away” as on Monday they lost 58-54 to UNC Greensboro. The Terriers had a 10-point halftime lead (on the road) after holding UNCG to just 18 points! But the 2H was completely different as they were outscored 40-24. It was a game Wofford led most of the way. They are now just 1-3 SU in conference play (despite being favored all four times), so look for tonight to be a “statement” game of sorts. At home, the Terriers are averaging 81.7 PPG, but perhaps more telling is that they shoot 51.0% from the field. Samford is shooting just 40.7% on the road. Lay the points. 10* Wofford

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): This is going to be the first time in at least six years that JMU is favored to beat Northeastern. The Dukes did take the last meeting, 79-72 back on January 24th of last year, but did so as 5.5-point dogs. Consider them being favored here as a “changing of the guard” in this rivalry, not to mention a “sign o’ the times” as N’eastern has lost four in a row to fall to 6-8 SU on the year while JMU, despite also being off a loss, is 9-3 SU. I’m laying the short number here. 

For both teams, this will be the second game in three days. As I already mentioned, N’eastern has lost four in a row. The last two defeats have been by a total of four points. They fell 70-67 at Towson on Sunday. While that game ended up being close, N’eastern only led briefly in the first half and never had the advantage after halftime. James Madison lost for the first time at home on Sunday, 87-80 to Hofstra, a game the Dukes led by one at halftime. For most of the second half, it was a one-possession game. 

JMU was on a four-game win streak prior to losing to Hofstra. I think having them having the home court edge for this one is a big deal as their record in Harrisonburg is still 6-1 SU and they are averaging 81.0 PPG while allowing only 59.6 PPG. Meanwhile, this will be Northeastern’s fourth straight road game, a stretch which goes back to before the New Year. The Huskies are only 2-7 SU away from home so far this season and 1-5 ATS in “true” road games. After dropping a couple of close calls, the tank could be "running on empty" for N'eastern. JMU has covered both times this year when it has been a favorite of 3.5 or more points. Last month, they defeated VIRGINIA here at home! 10* James Madison

8* Akron (7:00 ET): The MAC - as per usual - seems pretty wide open this season. Toledo, Ohio & Buffalo should be considered the favorites right now, but not far behind is Akron, who I believe will win 20+ games by the end of the year. The Zips are just 7-4 SU right now, so they’ve got a lot of work to do to “live up” to my projection. A 69-63 home loss last week to Ohio didn’t help matters, but having a full seven days to prepare for this game, a drop in class vs. Ball State, a bounce back should be in order. 

Now Ball State does come in on a four-game ATS win streak and they won on the road Saturday, 78-72 at Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals entered that game as one-point underdogs, but were able to pull the minor upset due to an edge at the FT line (+11 in makes, +18 in attempts) and hitting a much higher percentage of 3PA (50% to 25% for EMU). They also held EMU’s second leading scorer to only seven points on 3 of 10 shooting. It was a solid effort, but also just the second road win of the season for Ball State, whose four previous “true” road games all resulted in double digit defeats. 

Akron hadn’t lost at home before facing Ohio last Tuesday. They were also on a six-game win streak overall. Having had several extra days to prepare is obviously a huge edge for the Zips coming into tonight’s contest. This will be the first time this season that BSU is playing two “true” road games in a span of four days or less. Note the reason for Akron having been off for a week was COVID, which cancelled Saturday’s game vs. Miami and had them short-handed vs. Ohio. But it looks like they’ll have the full complement of players tonight. Ball State is giving up a ton of points per game (84.0 on the road!) while the Zips average 82.2 at home. 8* Akron

8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Mississippi Valley State, who is the worst team in all of College Basketball, actually won a game on Saturday. They beat Prairie View A&M 84-82 in overtime, as a 17-point underdog, for their first win of 2021-22. But make no mistake about it, the Delta Devils have a LONG way to go in order to escape the basement of my power ratings. There’s only ONE team in the country that they’d be favored against at home (Delaware State) and that’s not who they are facing tonight. And it’s also a road game. On the road, MVSU is getting outscored by more than 30 points per game this season! 

So this should be the easiest win of the year for a Texas Southern team that’s gotten to play just ONE game at home prior to this. That lone home game was on Saturday and the Tigers ran past Arkansas-Pine Bluff 90-71. Opening the season with 11 consecutive road games is a BRUTAL ask, so look past Texas Southern’s record for this one. My power ratings have them closer to a 30-point favorite over MVSU! 

I think that the “thrill” of picking up their first victory will cause an inevitable “letdown” here for Miss Valley State, whose numbers this season are absolutely hideous. They shoot only 28.8% from three-point range and 36.1% overall. They’re being outscored by 25.6 PPG as they let opponents score 88 PPG on 53.1% shooting. Texas Southern was a 16-point favorite against Ark-Pine Bluff, so they certainly should be a larger favorite here. Look for this to be a complete blowout. 8* Texas Southern

10* Niagara (1:00 ET): These teams met nine days ago and haven’t played since. Quinnipiac took the first meeting, 77-68 as a 1.5-point home dog, for their fourth consecutive win and cover. The Bobcats shot 53.8% from the floor in that victory, which is well above their season average of 45.2%. They raced out to a big halftime lead and also got a season-high 20 points from Dezi Jones. Now on the road for Sunday’s rematch, I can’t see a repeat performance from Quinnipiac, so look for Niagara to get some revenge here. 

The Purple Eagles have yet to record a conference win this season (0-3 in the MAAC) so they come into today pretty desperate. The switch in home court advantage should prove to be significant for this rematch as Niagara is holding teams to just 63.3 PPG on 39% shooting here in their own gym. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac’s defense gets significantly worse on their travels; they allow 77.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting away from home. 

Three times during this four-game win streak, Quinnipiac has been the underdog. I can’t see a fourth upset taking place over a five-game stretch. Again, Niagara was the slight favorite to win on the road, so we’re getting a good value on them for the rematch. The Purple Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS their L17 home games. The home team has won and covered four of the previous five meetings between these two teams, including a 75-59 Niagara win the lone time they got to play host during that stretch. 10* Niagara

8* Oklahoma (6:00 ET): In all due respect, Iowa State could be the most overrated team in the country right now. The Cyclones are ranked #11 in the country by the pollsters, but my own personal power ratings don’t have them in the Top 50 and they are underdogs here in Norman to an unranked Oklahoma squad. The Sooners have already knocked off a pair of Top 25 opponents this year, Florida and Arkansas. Let’s make it three on Saturday. Lay the points. 

What is most remarkable about Iowa State’s 13-1 SU start is that this team finished 2-22 SU last season, including 0-18 in Big 12 play! Yes, COVID-19 was a major reason for that, but this kind of improvement, in terms of the record, is almost unprecedented. They lost their top five scorers from last season and returned only three rotational players. While the Cyclones lone loss was to #1 Baylor (in a New Year’s showdown of unbeatens), I remain unsold. It was a VERY ugly four-point home win over Texas Tech on Wednesday, 51-47. The last two games have seen the Cyclones shoot just 8 of 39 from three-point range. They were 3 of 19 overall from the field in the 2H vs. TT. The last time ISU won a Big 12 road game was Feb ‘19. It’s a 21-game losing streak since. 

Oklahoma is also a program that’s surprising under a first year head coach. Porter Moser inherited just four scholarship players, but has made it work as the Sooners are 11-3 this year. They are coming off a loss at Baylor, but there’s no shame there as it was on the road. In Norman, the team is 8-1 SU and holding opponents to 56.6 PPG. Wednesday wasn’t even Iowa State’s lowest scoring game this year. They also beat Jackson State with just 47 points. This spread “really tells a story,” and I expect OU, the better team, to win convincingly. 8* Oklahoma 

8* Under Cornell/Princeton (6:00 ET): This is a high total for both teams and really you won’t find many higher across the entire College Basketball card today. The high O/U line isn’t without justification. Princeton has gone Over in each of its last seven lined games, including last night, which was a 84-69 win over Columbia. Cornell is 8-3 to the Over this season, but last night’s game, a 75-69 loss to Penn, did stay Under. I think this number is too high and will play accordingly. 

For those who are unfamiliar, the Ivy League schedule has its members play both Friday and Saturday night, almost every week, during conference play. With conference play just getting underway, this will be the first time this season for both Cornell and Princeton that they are playing without rest. Expect that to have an effect. First and foremost, I do not expect Princeton to continue the kind of torrid shooting we’ve seen from them most of the year. Last night, they “only” shot 46.8% in what was their first game in over two weeks. 

Cornell was much worse, shooting only 33.3% last night. The Big Red have now failed to score 70 points in three of their last four games. Princeton should keep them in check as they are holding visitors to 43% from the field at home this season. But I think the big key is that the Tigers’ offensive numbers have to start curtailing. Prior to last night, they’d shot 51% in six of their previous seven games. I just do not think that’s sustainable. This number, the highest for any Princeton game this season, is dropping quickly. So get your bet in quickly! 8* Under Cornell/Princeton

10* San Diego State (4:00 ET): Colorado State is one of the three unbeatens left in College Basketball. Baylor (#1) and USC (#7) are the others. I think this is it for the Rams, who I successfully faded earlier in the week (as 19-point favorites) against Air Force. While CSU (obviously) won the game straight up, they never came close to covering as the game was actually tied with just over 10 minutes remaining. This despite Air Force being without six players due to COVID, three of them starters and one their leading scorer. It was Colorado State’s first game in over three weeks due to cancellations and postponements as well. 

It’s a much tougher test than Air Force on Saturday as CSU heads west to visit San Diego State, who is a perfect 7-0 SU on its home floor this season. The Aztecs, along with Boise State, figure to be the Rams’ top challengers in the Mountain West this season. The hosts come into Saturday on a four-game win streak, including a 62-55 victory at UNLV last Saturday to open the MWC slate. They held the Runnin’ Rebels to just 29.7% shooting for the game, representing the lowest FG% by any SDSU opponent this season. 

I think the few extra days to prepare (compared to CSU) is a nice edge for San Diego State coming into this important conference clash. The Aztecs’ only losses this year came to BYU, USC and Michigan. They have a 15-game win streak in conference play and remember blowing a 26-point (and losing) to CSU when they hosted them last season. Third-leading scorer Lamont Butler could return from a wrist injury here. This is Colorado State’s first “true” road game of the season and it’s only being played Saturday because both teams had to reschedule this week’s original opponent. Look for the Rams to lose their first game. 10* San Diego State

8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): As I predicted, #16 Providence went down on Tuesday. But the Friars didn’t just go down, they went down HARD. It was their worst game of the season - an 88-56 loss at Marquette - which pretty much backed up my assessment that they are NOT a legit Top 25 team. In case you missed that 10* offering from me (on Marquette), allow me to reiterate that Providence isn’t even a Top 40 team in my own personal power ratings. I’m playing against them on Saturday. 

In fading Providence Tuesday night, I pegged that they were “due” for a poor effort at the defensive end and sure enough, it ended up being their worst defense effort so far this season. Marquette shot 52.5% from the field, which was the first time any opponent shot better than 50% against the Friars. Defending St. John’s won’t be easy either. The Red Storm, led by Julian Champagnie, average 83.2 PPG. That’s the 12th highest figure in the entire country. For the sake of comparison, Providence is averaging only 68.9 PPG, which is 211th in the nation.

Champagnie had a career-high 34 points and 16 rebounds in an 89-84 win over DePaul on Wednesday. His teammate, Dylan Addae-Wusu, also had career-high in that game with 17 points. Posh Alexander, another double-digit scorer, added 16. So the Red Storm have plenty of options to attack this Providence defense. The Friars have massively overachieved thus far (10-5 ATS) and G AJ Reeves is still questionable with a finger injury. This is only the third time St. John’s has been an underdog this season. Take the points, but an outright upset is likely. 8* St. John’s

10* Marquette (6:30 ET): The Golden Eagles treated me so nicely in their last game (an 88-56 demolishing of #16 Providence) that I’ll come right back with them again for Friday, this time as an even stronger play. Actually, this play has more to do with what preceded that impressive win over Providence Tuesday night. Marquette had lost four in a row, mostly close games. As I said in the analysis for Providence-Marquette, the Golden Eagles are a team you’ll want to “buy low” on right now as they are better than their overall record.

The opponent here is Georgetown, who has yet to play a conference game. The Hoyas last took the court on 12/18, so it’s basically been three weeks off for them due to COVID. "We've been shut down because we had a lot of guys with COVID," coach Patrick Ewing said. "There wasn't too much we could do.” Wednesday was the team’s first full practice in more than two weeks. The Hoyas’ record this season is 6-5 SU and they did lose their last game, 80-73 here at home to TCU. 

While it is highly unlikely that Marquette will be able to match its performance from Tuesday, they won’t have to, as all we are basically in need of is a straight up victory tonight. I like the Golden Eagles’ chances as they’ll have revenge on the mind from LY’s Big East Tournament. G’town has shot relatively well from three-point range this year, but so had Providence and Marquette held them to 26.3% from behind the arc. The “renaissance” continues here for Shaka Smart’s team. 10* Marquette

8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): Tarleton State is off an embarrassing 22-point loss to Utah Valley on New Year’s Day, but prior to that, the Texans had been playing rather well. They’d won five of six overall as well as covered six of their last eight lined games. Defensively, the last game was their worst effort since an early season meeting with Kansas. It should be noted that the loss to Utah Valley came on the road. For the season, Tarleton State only allows 56.3 PPG at home. So I look for them to bounce back. 

Sam Houston State arrives on a three-game win streak, but the road has been a challenge for the Bearkats this season. In “true” road games, they are 0-5 SU and all five losses have been by nine points or more. SHSU hasn’t played a road game since 12/14 when they lost at North Texas. Three of the five road losses have seen them fail to score 60 points. The most points scored in any road game is 66. 

So it shouldn’t take a big scoring effort for Tarleton State to win this one. Their scoring average at home is 70.5 PPG, which is way up from what they average on the road. After shooting a dreadful 29% from the floor against Utah Valley, the Texans should see dramatic improvement at the offensive end tonight. They shot 58% in their most recent home game, which was a 22-point win over Air Force. Not only had Tarleton State won three in a row prior to the loss on 1/1, all three wins were by double digits. 8* Tarleton State

8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State (7:00 ET): Nebraska is obviously one of the weaker teams in the Big 10, but they did just take Ohio State to overtime on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, they lost that game 87-79 and now must turn around to head to East Lansing and face top 10 Michigan State. The Spartans are off to a 3-0 start in conference play after defeating Northwestern 73-67 on the road Sunday. That was their fifth straight game to go Over, but this O/U line is very high and I’m going Under. 

In fact, it’s looking like this could close as the highest O/U line in any game for Sparty this season. The previous high was 149 against Toledo and that pushed with MSU winning 81-68. What’s remarkable about the last game going Over the total is Sparty shot just 38.5% from the field while holding N’western to 32.3%. Tonight’s game may not feature such poor shooting, but the O/U line being so high means that’s okay. Only two MSU games this season have seen more than 150 total points scored: the opener vs Kansas (161) and a game with Oakland (168). 

It is incredibly unlikely that Nebraska will win this game. They are 1-24 SU their L25 road games and are just 6-45 SU their L51 games as an underdog. They’ve lost 70 of the last 73 times they’ve been a road dog of at least 12.5 points including 0 for the last 15. Because the Cornhuskers are shooting just 27.9% from three-point range, Michigan State should easily keep them in check. Assuming this one isn’t close at the end, there won’t be much fouling and the home team can just shorten the game with long possessions. Note that Nebraska’s game with Ohio State was tied at 72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State

10* Dayton (7:00 ET): So the A-10 seems to be a bit “down” this year. There’s no team worthy of the Top 25 nor is there a clear-cut favorite to win the league. Here we have two of the stalwarts, VCU and Dayton, ready to open their conference schedule. VCU has won four in a row to get to 7-4 SU on the season. While two of the Rams’ losses are to Baylor and UConn, the others were to Wagner and Chattanooga. They should be respected for their defense (3rd in efficiency), but VCU’s problem is that it can’t score consistently (just 60.5 PPG). I think that costs them here on the road. 

Dayton has only managed a 2-2 split in its last four games, however both losses (SMU, Ole Miss) did come on the road. The Flyers come in at 8-5 SU on the year. Their most impressive win of the season obviously was the one against Kansas, which took place the day after Thanksgiving, on a neutral floor. Since then, the Flyers have been a bit inconsistent, although they’ve won all four home games, one of them against Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point dog. 

VCU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog so far this season, but this is a short number and Dayton is playing with big-time revenge after losing all three head to head matchups last season. The Flyers can also defend (just 61.2 PPG allowed at home) and they are more consistent than VCU at the offensive end. They’re shooting 48% on the season and averaging 70.4 PPG. Tonight is also VCU’s first game in three weeks, so they are likely to come out quite rusty. 10* Dayton

8* Air Force (9:00 ET): There are still three undefeated teams in College Basketball. One is #1 Baylor. The second is #7 USC, who I’d say is slightly overrated (but still a Top 20 team). The third is Colorado State. Because they are 10-0, the Rams are obviously ranked. But my power ratings consider them to be just barely one of the top 35 teams in America. While it’s unlikely that CSU’s first loss comes tonight, I do think that this is a lot of points to lay in what will be their first time taking the court in over three weeks. 

Air Force is 8-4 SU. They just pulled a massive upset in their game, beating Utah State 49-47 as 13-point dogs. That was actually the fourth straight game where the Flyboys did not score 50 points. The previous three were all double digit losses on the road. Let the record show that Utah State is one of the better Mountain West teams, so the AFA isn’t going to be intimidated heading into Fort Collins tonight. If anything, they should be supremely motivated facing an undefeated (and ranked) opponent. 

COVID is obviously the reason for Colorado State’s long layoff. They had three postponements in December and don’t be surprised if the conference’s best shooting team comes out a little “cold” tonight. Air Force has held six different opponents below 40% shooting this season, including Utah State last week. That the Falcons were able to win that game, while shooting just 1 of 19 from three-point range, was pretty remarkable. They’ll shoot better from deep tonight and because they play at such a slow tempo, should easily stay within the number. They’ve had fewer cancellations, thus will be in better “game shape.” 8* Air Force

10* Marquette (9:00 ET): Providence comes into this game ranked #16 in the country. But despite the Friars being on an eight-game win streak, my own personal power ratings are unimpressed, saying that not only does this team NOT deserve to be in the Top 25, but they are not even a Top 40 team in the country right now! The defensive numbers have been solid, but let’s see how the Friars perform here when they are playing a second straight “true” road game, a first for them this season. 

Marquette is going to be desperate here as they have not won a home game since 11/30. Coming off a double overtime loss to Creighton on New Year’s Day, a game where they were down by as many as 17, Shaka Smart’s team is certainly due to turn things around. The Golden Eagles have now dropped their last three at home, shooting less than 40 percent in those losses. Again, you’ve got to figure that number will improve here, even if they are facing a team that has posted a very strong defensive FG% on the year. 

One thing I do not see happening for Providence tonight is them shooting 8 of 15 (53.3%) from three-point range again, like they did in Saturday’s win at DePaul. Incredibly, the Friars have held their three previous Big East opponents to 33.3% shooting, which is astronomically low. You almost have to figure that number is going to go up and with Marquette’s own shooting due to IMPROVE, tonight seems like a “perfect storm” of sorts for the home team to pull an “upset.” Providence is only averaging 61.4 PPG on 38.9% shooting away from home. 10* Marquette

8* Michigan (7:05 ET): So both these teams are 7-5 straight up. That’s definitely surprising on the Michigan side as the Wolverines were once ranked as high as #4 in the country in the early part of the season. Juwan Howard’s team comes into Tuesday’s game off a pretty shocking 85-71 loss at UCF, a game they led at the half. But the Maize and Blue simply could not get stops in the second half of that game as their opponents shot a preposterous 72 percent, including 8 for 8 from three-point range. 

It’s highly unlikely that Rutgers - or any future Michigan opponent for that matter - is going to shoot the ball that well again this season. The Scarlet Knights do have an impressive win on their resume, beating then #1 Purdue at the buzzer back on December 9th. They’ve subsequently wrapped up non-conference play with easy wins over Maine and Central Conn State. While the Scarlet Knights are 7-1 at home so far (0-4 on the road), this is going to be a tough game for them. They have never beaten Michigan since joining the Big 10. 

I believe the Wolverines are set to turn things around now that conference play is in full effect. My power ratings still consider them to be among the Top 25 teams in the nation, despite their disappointing record. Note that they’ve won by double digits off each of their previous four losses. Rutgers isn’t even the top 100 in my power ratings and they have a lower efficiency rating both offensively and defensively compared to Michigan. Lay the points. 8* Michigan

8* Under Maryland/Iowa (9:00 ET): It’s tough competition in the Big 10 this year as you’ve got seven teams from this conference currently ranked in my Top 30. I think we can all agree who the best team is (Purdue), but after that you’ve got six teams pretty closely congested. Iowa is among that group and the Hawkeyes will take a three-game win streak into tonight’s clash with Maryland. The Hawkeyes, who do have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, topped 90 points in all three of their recent wins. But those were also all non-conference games. Maryland should prove to be a lot stingier. 

The Terrapins were a team that opened the year ranked in the Top 25, but I was not a real believer in what was going on in College Park. I played against them in an outright loss to George Mason and since that time the Terps are 5-3 including a 67-61 loss to Northwestern in their only conference outing thus far. This team struggles to shoot the three (30.2% for the year). Friday’s win over Brown (81-67) was their highest scoring game in awhile, but still wouldn’t have gone Over this total, nor would have any game but one since the season opener. 

Iowa’s two previous conference games were rough as they lost both of them. Now they played Purdue and Illinois, who I think are the top two teams in the league. There was also a dreadful 53-point effort in a blowout loss to Iowa State. The Hawkeyes have followed those three straight losses with the three-game win streak I mentioned earlier, but scoring against Maryland will be a lot tougher than it was against the likes of SE Louisiana and W Illinois. The Terps are holding teams below 40% shooting for the year. Good for Iowa then that they allow only 40.2% shooting at home. 8* Under Maryland/Iowa

10* Drake (8:00 ET): Both Drake and Missouri State are off to winning starts this season. Drake is 10-4 while Missouri State is 9-5. But Drake is 1-0 in conference play, having picked up a win over Valparaiso back on December 2nd, while Missouri State lost its only Missouri Valley game, as a 6.5-point favorite at Illinois State on December 1st. Now, after both teams won big against non-DI teams earlier in the week, it’s a permanent return to conference play. I like the road team to at least cover here.

Drake has struggled to cover games this season (just 3-9 ATS overall), especially on the road (0-5 ATS), but they have been an underdog to just two teams this season: Alabama and Clemson. Despite the ATS struggles, the Bulldogs are on a four-game SU win streak. The last five seasons have seen them really own Missouri State with an 8-2 SU head to head edge, including a 3-0 season sweep in 2020-21. 

Missouri State has a shorter turnaround between games as they last played on Thursday while Drake’s last game was on Tuesday. While the Bears “couldn’t miss” in their last game, consider the opposition and they are also 0-4 ATS the last four times they’ve been off a game where they scored 90 or more points. That includes two straight up losses this season. Drake is 7-3 ATS following a win by 20 or more points and I think they are a lot better than their ATS record. Grab the points. 10* Drake

10* Dixie State (9:00 ET): Abilene Christian won its final 10 games of 2021. They covered the spread in all seven that were lined. But it was a close call 48 hours ago when they won at Utah Valley State, 80-76 as 1.5-point favorites, in the WAC opener. Tonight marks the first time since opening the season with three straight road games that the Wildcats are playing consecutive games away from home. Given how many points they are laying here, I think it’s an appropriate time to fade.

Dixie State will be looking to rebound from consecutive losses tonight. The Trail Blazers had previously won six in a row before this losing skid. After getting blown out at Southern Utah on 12/22, Dixie State suffered just its second home loss of the year on 12/30, 83-69 to Tarleton State. They were three-point dogs for that game. The fact Tarleton State shot 50% for the game from three-point range did not help. Also, Dixie State attempted only 11 free throws compared to 22 for TSU. 

Dixie State had been 6-1 SU at home, prior to losing Thursday. They average 89.1 PPG for the year here. I see them putting enough points on the board tonight to easily cover this number. Abilene Christian’s success at the betting window has had an obvious influence on this line for tonight and it’s too high. It was shocking that they were able to win their last games, despite allowing 58% shooting. The favorite is due for an “off night” while the home team is going to be desperate to avoid a third straight loss. Take the points. 10* Dixie State

8* Marquette (12:00 ET): Creighton is obviously the hotter team heading into this Saturday Big East matchup, but I think it’s a great spot to jump on Marquette. 

The Golden Eagles (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) have lost their last three games and four of the last five. The lone win in that stretch was by a single point, 64-63, over Kansas State. Furthermore, Marquette has not won at home since November 30th. After a 5-0 start to the season at home, they lost two games here last month, both to strong teams - UCLA and UConn. The most recent loss was 78-71 to UConn on Dec 21 and the Eagles were without Darryl Morsell, their second leading scorer. Morsell is expected to be back in the lineup this afternoon. Regardless, I like the home team as essentially a “pick ‘em” in this matchup. Not only is Marquette desperate for a win, but Creighton is in a major “letdown spot.” 

Creighton is coming off a shocking performance, a 79-59 upset of Villanova where they were seven-point home underdogs. While the upset took place all the way back on December 17th, it will certainly be a near impossibility for the Blue Jays to match their performance and intensity from that day. Following a 7-1 start, Creighton alternated wins and losses in a 2-2 December. They’ve also played only one “true” road game all season. Marquette beat a very good Illinois team here earlier this year, so they are more than capable of winning this game. We’re getting a really solid value on the home side here. 8* Marquette

10* William & Mary (2:00 ET): William & Mary is one of four College Basketball programs that’s been eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never gotten in. That’s pretty embarrassing. But I’m not sure it’s more embarrassing than how the Tribe started their 2021-22 season. Not only did they lose their first 12 games, they were also 0-12 ATS. But W&M finally picked up a win on Wednesday, stunning Hofstra 63-62 as 17.5-point home underdogs. I think they’re in line to cover another game here on New Year’s Eve. 

Northeastern enters this game off back to back losses. Those two defeats were sandwiched around a pair of cancellations as the Huskies fell 79-69 to Davidson and 79-62 at Elon. The loss to Elon was particularly embarrassing as N’eastern came into that game favored by three points. They are now 0-4 SU in “true” road games this season with three of the four losses coming by 17 points or more. Williamsburg is not a place where the Huskies have performed well in the past; they’ve lost 10 of their last 13 trips here.

I know that William & Mary has endured a brutal start to the season, but given how untrustworthy Northeastern has been away from home thus far, you’ve got to take the points in this one. William & Mary’s ATS record is so poor that you have to think a turnaround is coming at the betting window. It’s the law of averages. The win on Wednesday, where the Tribe held Hofstra to 30.2% shooting, should inspire some much-needed confidence. Northeastern has only three wins by more than six points, so this game should come down to the wire. Take the points. 10* William & Mary

10* Oregon State (9:00 ET): This line will most definitely be viewed as “curious” by most as you’ve got a 2-10 Oregon State team as a short home dog, facing Utah. The Beavers’ only two wins came in their first - and most recent - games. The most recent win was nine days ago against Nicholls State, 83-61 as a nine-point favorite. I think it would be rather foolish to write this team off as it was only nine months ago that OSU made its incredible run to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also beaten Utah four straight times. 

Utah concluded the non-conference portion of its schedule with a 55-50 win over Fresno State nine days ago. The Utes are now 8-4 straight up, but only 4-7-1 ATS. They’ve played just two “true” road games so far and lost them both, 93-73 at USC and 83-75 at Missouri. While Oregon State may not be as formidable as either of those two teams, it is notable that Utah has suffered three double digits on the season. In the two previous conference games, the Utes shot just 38.0% from the field. They’ve been short-handed of late, though leading scorer Branden Carlson could return here. 

Oregon State has three losses by three points or less this season, so factor that in when looking at their overall record. The Beavers should be “pumped up” for this game in Corvallis as conference play certainly affords them a “fresh start” to the season. Utah is only 6-18 ATS its L24 games away from home and they’ve lost by an average of 18.5 PPG their previous two trips here. The Utes are 4-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 points or less the previous game, including 1-3 ATS this season alone. 10* Oregon State

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): I think that it’s fair to say I was “ahead of the curve” on Seton Hall, whom I took early in the season in an upset win over Michigan. In my analysis for that play, I called the Pirates “one of the better teams in the country.” They’ve spent the bulk of the season ranked in the Top 25, though like a lot of squads, it’s been awhile since they took the court. Three straight cancellations, including their first two scheduled Big East games, have resulted in a 17-day gap between games for Seton Hall. 

Providence is a team I’m less sold on right now. Though also ranked in the Top 25, the Friars rate a lot lower than Seton Hall in my own personal power rankings. I do not even consider them to be a Top 45 team, let alone Top 25. But the Friars are 11-1, their only loss coming by 18 to Virginia back on Nov 23. They have gotten a Big East game in, a 57-53 win at UConn where the Friars were 7.5 point dogs and held their opponents to 31.1% shooting. What I would consider to be a second straight upset is unlikely, however. 

Seton Hall (9-1) is just plain better, in my eyes. Their only loss was by three points, on a neutral floor, to Ohio State back in November. In addition to the win over Michigan, the Pirates have beaten Texas. Providence’s best win - by far - was the one over UConn on Dec 18th. Obviously, both teams have had extended time off here, but I am simply going to trust my power rankings, which say Seton Hall is decidedly the better team here. 10* Seton Hall

8* Georgia (7:00 ET): Georgia is having a tough season. They’ve already lost two starters to season-ending injuries. The end result is a 5-6 SU record coming into Wednesday. But the Bulldogs did win earlier in the week, beating Western Carolina 85-79 on Monday. They failed to cover though as 11.5 point chalk. The pointspread has certainly been unkind to UGA so far this season as they are just 4-7 at the betting window and that includes a 2-0 start to the year. But it's a small number at home tonight and I’m laying it. 

East Tennessee State comes into Athens with a 7-5 overall record (straight up). But they are coming off a loss, 79-64 at UNC Asheville on Saturday. That was actually the second straight loss for the Buccaneers as they went down at the hands of North Carolina A&T (as 12-point favorites!) last week. And Saturday’s result also dropped them to 0-4 SU this year in “true” road games. It would certainly appear as if ETSU is getting a bit too much credit from oddsmakers here, probably due to the Georgia injuries. 

Again, those injuries didn’t prevent the Bulldogs from winning on Monday and they also put up 85 points in the process. East Tennessee State likes to play slow, so if Georgia can push the tempo, they should be in good shape tonight. There are still four players on the team averaging in double figures. The key here for Georgia will be improving their three-point shooting. They’re at just 30.7% for the season, which is bad enough that you have to figure they almost HAVE to improve. 8* Georgia

10* Lehigh (7:00 ET): It’s not been a positive start to the season for Lehigh as the Mountain Hawks have just one win, which came back on Nov 23 against Colombia. Yet they are still the favorites here, which should tell you all you “need to know” about Albany. Now Lehigh has failed each of their last four tries as chalk, losing three of those games outright. But I look for this one to “be the charm” as they’ve been off for 17 days while Albany just played on Saturday. Lay the points. 

Albany has not exactly been a “cash-cow” by any means. They are just 3-8 ATS, not to mention 3-8 straight up as well. The Great Danes just lost 66-58 to Niagara as 5.5 point dogs. That followed two wins, both of which were by four points or less. In fact, the team’s three wins this year have been by a total of just seven points! So this could pretty easily be an 0-11 team coming into tonight. They have just one road win all year.

When breaking this matchup down, I simply *have* to come back to the massive edge in rest that Lehigh has. Since the Mountain Hawks last played, Albany has been on the court four different times, three of those coming over the previous 10 days. Scoring has been a real problem all season for the Great Danes, even more so than for Lehigh, as the visitors come in averaging a paltry 57.8 PPG on the season and even fewer than that over the L5 games. 10* Lehigh

8* Notre Dame (8:00 ET): The Fighting Irish have not had much luck at the betting window this season (just 1-7 ATS), but a recent upset of Kentucky (lone ATS win) shows what they are capable of doing. The Irish gave a rude welcome to UK here in South Bend, winning 66-62 as a 4.5-point underdog. Sadly, they couldn’t follow up, losing 64-56 to Indiana (in Indianapolis) in the Crossroads Classic. But that was a close game most of the way and the final score wasn’t really indicative of how ND played. A much easier opponent here should result in a big win on Monday. Lay the points. 

Western Michigan has the same number of wins (4) as Notre Dame, but two of their wins have been against non-DI opponents, including the last game - a 67-56 win over Aquinas. The other two were against teams ranked outside the top 250 in my power ratings. Seemingly even more pertinent is the fact that all six of the Broncos’ losses have been by double digits and by an average of 25 PPG. They were absolutely hammered in losses to Michigan State (90-46) and Iowa (109-61), which isn’t all that surprising. But even the likes of Detroit (83-64) and Saginaw Valley (80-63) were able to hammer them. Saginaw Valley isn’t even a D-I school! 

Notre Dame has struggled to make shots this season, but that should change here against a WMU team that is one of the worst in the country defensively. The Broncos are 343rd in the country (out of 358 teams) in defensive efficiency. With ACC play looming, the Fighting Irish could really use a big win here and then Wednesday over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. I think they’ll take care of business tonight as the three-pointers will start to fall against a team that struggles to defend from behind the arc. ND only allows 58.3 PPG at home. WMU allows 86.8 PPG on the road. 8* Notre Dame

10* Colgate (2:00 ET): Here we go back to the well, playing against Monmouth. The Hawks are a positively stunning 11-0 ATS this season. They are obviously the top spread team in the country. Perhaps most impressive of all is that Monmouth is coming off a six-game stretch on the road where they went 5-1 straight up. They are 9-2 SU on the year, despite playing only two home games. But I view Sunday as a “tricky” spot for the favorites, who have been underdogs in most of their games this season. Take the points! 

Colgate has not been nearly as successful as Monmouth at the betting window. The Raiders are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games and coming off an 82-64 loss at St. John’s last Sunday. A full week to prepare for this game should help, however. When comparing these two teams’ ATS records, something to be aware of is the fact Colgate has been favored in more games this season. This will be only the 4th time that Colgate has been taking points. They covered the first two times, including an outright win (as 11.5-pt dogs) at Syracuse. Last Sunday’s loss to St. John’s was the only time the Raiders didn’t cover as pups.

Monmouth has played a lot of close games. Eventually, one of them has to not go their way, at least at the pay window. Having played six straight road games over the L3 weeks is something that you have to figure “catches up with them” at some point. The Hawks have failed to score 70 points in four of their last six games. As an underdog, that’s not a problem. But this will be just the third time that Monmouth is favored by more than three points. 10* Colgate

10* Canisius (5:00 ET): Canisius is just 2-9 straight up entering this game, but it’s notable that they are getting double digits here. The reason that’s notable is because the only two games the Golden Griffins have covered this season came as DD dogs. Those covers came at Miami (FL) and St. Bonaventure. This evening marks the first time all season that Canisius is a DD dog at home. They are 0-7 ATS L7 lined games and 0-8 ATS overall this season when NOT getting double digits. But due to the poor ATS record, the oddsmakers are being too generous here. Take the points. 

The team Canisius is hosting, Buffalo, is 6-1 ATS and has just one loss by more than three points (and that was to Michigan). But off a 10-day layoff, the Bulls could be prone for a letdown Saturday afternoon. Prior to the extended time off, UB pulled a minor upset, going to Western Kentucky and winning 77-67 as a three-point dog. Tonight marks the first time that the Bulls are laying points in a “true” road game. Previously, they were favored at neutral sites against SF Austin St (and lost outright) and Illinois State (covered, but also allowed 90 points). 

I realize that, on paper, Buffalo looks to have a rather sizable edge in this matchup. But again, don’t discount the fact that this is a large spread for the Bulls to be laying after such an extended layoff. They are just 3-3 SU away from home this season. This is a local rivalry, which likely means more to Canisius, who has beaten Buffalo just one time since 2014. But none of the previous six meetings were decided by more than 15 points and two of the games went into overtime. 10* Canisius

8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): The Johnnies snapped a six-game ATS losing streak last Sunday, beating Colgate 82-64 as 7.5-point home chalk. They allowed just 29 points in the 2H, which was Colgate’s season-low for a half. But it’s the offense that usually makes the headlines for the Red Storm. Led by Julian Champagnie, the team comes in averaging 85.2 PPG and that number is way too much for an offensively inept Pitt team to compete here. I’m laying the points in this matchup of former conference rivals. 

These programs have not met since 2012-13, when Pitt left the Big East for the ACC. St. John’s probably wishes they could face Pitt more often, at least in recent times. Going back to last year, the Panthers are just 5-15 SU their L20 games. That includes a 3-7 start to this season as they’ve suffered double digit losses to the likes of The Citadel and UMBC. Last time out, the Panthers fell at home to Monmouth, 56-52 as a 1-point home dog. They trailed in that game by as many as 17 points. 

With the start of conference play looming, normally I might be a bit “gun-shy” about laying so many points. But St. John’s full focus will be on this game after it was announced Monday’s Big East opener (vs. Seton Hall) has been cancelled due to COVID (outbreak is with SH) and the Red Storm will be awarded a win via forfeit! The Red Storm are simply too strong at the offensive end for a team like Pitt that is last in the ACC in both scoring (60.5 PPG) and FG% (41.7). St. John’s likes to play fast (9th in adjusted tempo), which is also a problem for Pitt. 8* St. John’s