8* Over Kansas State/Baylor (2:30 ET): Last night couldn’t have gone better for Kansas State as they routed TCU 71-50 in 1st round Big 12 Tournament action. The Wildcats were 3.5-point underdogs going into that contest, so the margin of victory was definitely surprising. They used two big second half runs - 16-0 and 21-2 - to break the game open. What shouldn’t have been all that surprising is that the game stayed Under. It was the fifth time in their last six games that KSU held its opponent under 60 points and seventh straight Under for them. But the task is about to get a lot more difficult.

Considering how many points Baylor scored against Kansas State in the two regular season matchups, the odds of the Wildcats’ Under streak continuing here seem slim. Both times Baylor scored 100+ as they won those games by an average of 39.5 PPG. The Bears are the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, having lost only one game all year and that was to Kansas in the second game back from a long COVID-19 layoff. In the three games since, the Bears have averaged 87.7 PPG and topped 80 in every contest. 

Baylor is 8-1 Over its last 9 games overall and the Over is also 8-1 in the last nine head to head meetings between these two teams. Both of this year’s regular season games obviously flew Over and while the Bears may not score 100 again today, we probably won’t need them to. They average 85.3 PPG for the year, so all we’re looking at from Kansas State is about 60, which seems rather doable. 8* Over Kansas State/Baylor

8* West Virginia (11:30 AM ET): WVU gets an immediate shot at redemption in the first quarterfinal matchup of the day in the Big 12 Tournament. They face Oklahoma State, who just beat them 85-80 in the regular season finale. The game was in Morgantown with the Mountaineers favored by 10 as OSU was missing its leading scorer, freshman Cade Cunningham. The Cowboys have really been surging of late as they’ve won six of their last seven games (6-0 ATS L6) and are ranked #12 in the country. 

But even with the probability that Cunningham will return to the lineup today, I feel this is a great “sell high” opportunity on OSU, who I now view as one of the more “overrated” teams in the country. Not only do I not believe they are a top 12 team in the country, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 30! Some of the teams they’ve been recently, WVU included (also Texas Tech and Oklahoma twice), make for quality wins. But with that run and the fact they’ve covered six straight, you gotta figure they’re due to “drop one” sooner rather than later. They shot almost 58% on Saturday in Morgantown with Avery Anderson III scoring a career-high 31 points. That’s not happening again today. 

With a win here, West Virginia HC Bob Huggins would join just four other coaches with 900 for his career. After being denied the honor Saturday, you can bet he’ll have his team motivated today. Consider that the Mountaineers have not lost a game by more than five points since before X-Mas and two of their last three losses came in OT. They are 4-1 ATS off a conference loss this season. 8* West Virginia 

8* Notre Dame (9:00 ET): The Fighting Irish needed a buzzer-beater to get by Wake Forest last night, so most won’t be giving them a chance here as they face 6-seed North Carolina in the second round of the ACC Tournament. But falling into a big early hole is what really hurt the Irish yesterday. Wake Forest opened the game on a 21-9 run, but ND quickly moved to cut into that margin and ended the game on a 17-2 scoring run of their own. They shot 51.7% from the field, including 12 of 26 from 3-point range. 

I certainly didn’t like the Irish as favorites yesterday. That non-cover dropped them to 1-5 ATS their L6 games overall. But let’s not forget what they did the last time they were an underdog. It was last Saturday when they stunned Florida State in South Bend. The Irish have scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games, so - to me - they are a pretty dangerous dog. In this season’s only meeting with UNC, they lost by only one (66-65) as a 9.5-point dog in Chapel Hill. That game was decided in the closing seconds. 

The Tar Heels probably feel pretty good about themselves heading into this Tournament. They just clobbered rival Duke 91-73 last Saturday. But they lost the last time they were on the road (72-70 at Syracuse) and are just 6-8 SU away from Chapel Hill this season. Five of their last six games were at home. It’s been almost two months since they won B2B ACC games. The underdog has covered five of the last seven head to head meetings between these two. This is one where you’ll want to take the points as “the world” figures to be on UNC. 8* Notre Dame

10* Arizona State (4:00 ET): While the injury news seems to be in Washington State’s favor heading into this 1st round matchup in the Pac 12 Tournament, I’m still siding with ASU. The Sun Devils last win came against the Cougars and while they did not cover the 5-point spread, all we’re going to need this time is a SU win. That previous meeting went to overtime, but Arizona State led virtually the entire game. They did so despite Wazzu shooting a higher percentage from three. The Sun Devils have been a bit snakebit in that they are just 5-22-1 ATS their L28 games overall. Eventually, that record HAS to turn around.

Now Washington State did not have its leading scorer (Isaac Bonton) for that last meeting w/ ASU. Reportedly, he is set to return Wednesday. But I question just how effective Bonton and his teammates will be here considering they haven’t taken the floor since losing to ASU on 2/27. That’s an 11-day gap between games. The Cougars are just 6-12 SU since the New Year with three of the wins coming vs. Washington or Cal. They also took advantage of Oregon when the Ducks were depleted.

Arizona State may be without its two standout freshmen, but I trust Bobby Hurley’s team will still be able to get the job done here. The regular season finale at Utah was obviously a disaster, but the Sun Devils did play Colorado tough on the road before that, at least until faltering late. I refuse to believe a team can be so inept when it comes to covering the spread and this looks to be a tremendous value. Remy Martin is due for a big game after struggling in last weekend’s pair of road games. He averages a team-high 19.9 PPG and had eight straight of 20+ before the nose diving against Colorado and Utah. 10* Arizona State

8* Over San Jose State/Wyoming (2:00 ET): This is pretty much the opposite of my three successful Under wagers the past two days. We’ve got two BAD defensive teams, one of which (San Jose State) stayed Under in each of its final six regular season contests. But let’s not sugarcoat things. The Spartans are an absolutely awful basketball team. They are giving up 82.2 PPG away from home for the season. Not to be outdone, Wyoming allows 76.7 PPG away from home. Expect this 1st round tournament game in the Mountain West to go Over the total.

San Jose State somehow did not finish last in the MWC this year. They did go 3-13 SU in conference play, but both Air Force and New Mexico each found ways to be worse. In my opinion (and according to my power ratings), San Jose State was the worst team in the MWC this season. Regardless, all you need to know is that the bottom of the MWC is really bad. There is a significant gap between those bottom three teams and everyone else, so Wyoming has every right to be a sizable favorite here. Still, I’d never lay double digits with the Cowboys due to the fact they are not good defensively. Opponents shot better than 50% against them for the SEASON in conference play!

Wyoming did close the regular season on a 4-0 ATS run, but two of those wins were against New Mexico. Seeing as the Cowboys average 75.6 PPG for the year, they should have no issue scoring today and even better is the fact they average 83.1 PPG when favored. These teams did not play in the regular season, but I think SJSU is capable of delivering one of its highest scoring games to date. Due to three cancellations, they haven’t played since February 21st. They’ll have to score as they rank 338th nationally in PPG allowed. Wyoming shot 55.1% on Saturday in its win over UNLV. 8* Over San Jose St/Wyoming

10* Drexel (7:00 ET): We’ve got a 6-seed (Drexel) and an 8-seed (Elon) competing in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Final on Tuesday. Obviously, this league is nowhere near the heights it achieved 10-15 years ago with the likes of VCU and George Mason (both of whom have since bailed for the “greener pastures” of the A-10). It’s really been “wide open” ever since those teams left and the fact we’ve got a 6 and an 8 seed playing in the Tournament Final speaks to that. However, I think Drexel was actually one of the better CAA teams this year and is quite likely to move on to the “Big Dance” next weekend. 

Other than regular season champ James Madison (who got bounced by Elon in the quarterfinals), Drexel had the highest rating among CAA teams over at KenPom. My own power ratings actually call them the BEST team in the CAA this season! So I’m not at all surprised to see the Dragons here. They were favored against 3-seed Charleston and 2-seed Northeastern in their first two tournament matchups. If you’re wondering how they ended up being the 6-seed, well that’s because they’ve played only five games since the beginning of February! That includes their two tourney games. 

Meanwhile, Elon is playing its fourth game in as many as days in what has been an improbable run. I did not expect to see them here. The Phoenix are a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS their L7 games and were the underdog in five of them. Three of those seven wins came against either Towson or William & Mary, the bottom two in the CAA. Elon did upset top-seed James Madison, but that was a 1-point win where they were down 10 at the half. Even with the high stakes here, you’ve got to think the tank is “near empty.” Drexel is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this season, so I won’t hesitate to lay the short number. 10* Drexel

8* Under Boston College/Duke (4:30 ET): So the ACC Tournament gets underway on Tuesday and in a rare sight we’ve got Duke playing in the Opening Round. This was most definitely a “down year” in Durham as the Blue Devils went just 11-11 SU and ended their regular season on a three-game losing streak. They most definitely need to win this tourney, or at least get to the final, to have any chance of making the “Big Dance” this weekend. One would think they would prevail today, but Boston College did upset Notre Dame not that long ago. 

Because of the “must-win” belief and the fact Duke is still one of the most “public” sides in all of College Hoops, the line is a little bit inflated here. Still, I really have zero interest in endorsing a BC side that has won just two games since X-Mas. Some of the losses have been close, like Friday’s 80-76 loss at Miami. But Miami is depleted and then you have losses like the one the Eagles were handed last Wednesday by Florida State (94-63). This is a matchup where I’m focused on the total. 

Duke has gone Over in six straight. But before UNC routed them on Saturday, the previous two losses both came in OT. They allowed just 64 and 65 points in regulation in those two contests. In many ways, handicapping this matchup reminds me of yday’s two successful Under wagers. You’ve got a team on a long Over run, but some of that is due to multiple OT games. When these teams met in the regular season, the score ended up 83-82 (Duke won), but BC shot the ball extremely well (56% overall including 9 of 16 from three), a performance they won’t be repeating today. The Eagles have lost two of their top three scorers since that loss to Duke. This will likely end up closing as the highest O/U line for either team all season. Duke is 20-8 Under in neutral site games when the total is 150 to 154.5. 8* Under Boston College/Duke

10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime (one of which, Cleveland State-IPFW, went to TRIPLE OT!) and the one that did end in regulation was decided by a single point.  After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. 

Northern Kentucky was the lone Horizon League team to win its quarter final game in regulation. It did so by beating Detroit 70-69 as a 1.5-point dog. The Norse seem to be peaking at the right time as that win was their 9th in the last 11 games and they are 4-0 ATS L4. It was impressive that they held Detroit to only 69 points considering the Titans shot 51% from the field, including 13 of 31 from behind the arc. The game stayed Under. 

Oakland’s 87-83 OT win over Youngstown State in the quarterfinals obviously went Over. That’s now eight straight Overs for the Golden Grizzlies, who are 21-6 Over on the year. But this is not a great shooting team (40.4 FG% away from home). These teams did NOT meet in the regular season and while both meetings LY did go Over those O/U lines were significantly lower than the one we’ve got here. I think the value is on the Under tonight. 10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland

8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State (6:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime with one (Cleveland State-IPFW) going to TRIPLE OT. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. The first semi features two of the most fortunate teams in all of America, Cleveland State and Milwaukee. 

 Cleveland State is the regular season champion of the Horizon League, but perhaps THE luckiest team in the country. Their luck rating is #1 at KenPom. The Vikings have six wins by four points or less this season. During a 17-4 SU, very few of their wins HAVEN’T been close. In that same vein, Milwaukee is now 3-0 SU in OT games this season. One of those OT wins was against Cleveland State on 1/23, a game they trailed by 13 with 1:59 remaining. The quarterfinal win against #2 seed Wright State was perhaps even more improbable seeing as the Panthers were down 24 with 6:26 left. 

Obviously, both teams’ quarterfinal games ended up high-scoring due to overtime. Milwaukee has now seen its last nine games all go Over and Cleveland State is 7-2-1 Under its L10. But I think the total for tonight is too high, especially when you compare it to the O/U lines from the two regular season matchups (131.5, 135). The first game ended up 64-53 in CSU’s favor. Milwaukee shot very poorly in both games and hasn’t been above 50% in any game since early January. 8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State

8* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET): In my view, Appalachian State is clearly the weakest of the four semifinalists in this Sun Belt Tournament. That's hardly a “hot take” considering the Mountaineers are the only team of the four left standing that did NOT finish in the top two of either Sun Belt division. They got here first with a 67-60 win over Little Rock, then a 76-73 win against Texas State. The latter was an upset (ASU was +5) and a game that went to OT after the Mountaineers pulled off a second-half rally. I think their run ends here. 

Coastal Carolina has only had to play one tourney game to this point and it was rout as they beat Troy 86-68 yesterday. Interestingly enough, the Chanticleers’ last three wins have all come against Troy as have five of their last seven wins overall. They enter tonight’s semi final on a 4-game win streak. Even though Texas State (who App State beat yday) was technically the 1-seed in this tournament, I have Coastal Carolina rated higher in my own power ratings. The Chanticleers scored 53 pts in the 2H yesterday.

The only edge App State has in this matchup is they take better care of the basketball. Do not expect them to match yday’s 12 of 27 shooting from 3-point range. They are only 10th in the Sun Belt in three-point shooting. Defensively, no team in the conference has given up a higher effective FG% from 2 and 3 point range. Coastal Carolina is #1 in the SBC in both categories and is also #1 in offensive rebounding. This is a big break for them getting ASU in the semis and they’ll take advantage. 8* Coastal Carolina

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps suffered a terrible loss their last time out, They were beaten at Northwestern, 60-55 as 4.5-point chalk, a result that did their NCAA Tournament hopes no favors. Now they are still projected as a 9-seed, but were they to lose B2B games to Big 10 also-rans, that wouldn’t be good. This conference is filled with good teams, but N’western isn’t one of them and neither is Penn State, who comes calling to College Park Sunday evening. I expect Maryland to bounce back here.

Penn State recorded a blowout victory in its last game, 84-65 against Minnesota, which was the Nittany Lions’ home finale. But wins have been few and far between for this team as it was just the second for PSU in the L7 games. The other came against last place Nebraska. Now the “elephant in the room” here is that the Nittany Lions did beat Maryland 55-50 back on Feb 5th. But since that time, the teams have trended in opposite directions. The 2-5 slide for PSU began right after while Maryland is 5-2 since. 

Maryland allowed N’western to score the game’s final six points Wednesday, which ended a five-game win streak. It was a dreadful shooting night the first time they faced Penn State, but I do not anticipate that happening again as the Terrapins score 74.3 PPG here at home where they generally shoot well. Penn State has the worst 2-pt FG% in the conference and typically relies on offensive rebounding to increase production. But Maryland is a solid defensive rebounding team. They shoot the three well and teams are making 54.2% of their 2PA against PSU in Big 10 play. The Nittany Lions are just 2-8 SU on the road and will not match their 3-pt shooting from the last game. 10* Maryland

9* Furman (8:00 ET): Despite finishing third in the regular season, I think an argument can be made that Furman is the strongest team in the SoCon entering the Tournament. But before they can concentrate on the likes of UNC Greensboro and Wofford (the top two seeds), there’s a matter of revenge to take care of here in the quarter finals. They play VMI, who upset them back on January 11th. That 74-73 loss (as 11-pt favorites) did not specifically cost the Paladins a top two seed, but it definitely hurt. When you couple it with another 74-73 loss (to Wofford) last Saturday, you realize Furman was basically two points away from being the top seed in this tournament.

VMI also happens to be off a one-point loss, 75-74 at The Citadel. But that was TWO Saturdays ago. They finished 6th in the conference, but there’s a pretty substantial dropoff after the top five. Now give credit where credit is due. The Keydets did beat Furman. But that was at home and it was a cold-shooting night for the Paladins. They made only 37% of their FG attempts while VMI sank 44% from three-point range. Despite those disparate numbers, it was still only a one-point game. 

The number here is several points shorter than it was when Furman travelled to face VMI. So I’m seeing some value right off the bat. Furman had won four in a row, all by nine points or more, before losing at Wofford last Saturday. Like I said earlier, I still consider them the favorites to win this tournament and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are favored in every game. I think the two-week layoff hurts VMI here. 9* Furman

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): Twice I faded St. John’s last month and both times it ended up being a winning bet. The first time was against Butler (2/9) when the Red Storm entered in on an 8-game ATS win streak. They lost 76-73 as a 2.5-point underdog. That was close. But things were much more comfortable when I took DePaul +11.5 here in NYC on Feb 20th. The Blue Demons, who are having a terrible season, came in and upset the Johnnies 88-83. As I said in the analysis for both picks, this team has some real issues defensively. They are allowing 77.0 PPG for the season. 

Seton Hall is St. John’s opponent Saturday. This is an “old school” Big East rivalry and the Pirates have had the upper hand recently, winning the last three meetings. That includes 77-68 earlier this season. Now the Pirates come into this rematch with some “egg on their face” after dropping three in a row, all as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 games overall. But I view this as an excellent “buy low” opportunity and judging from the early line movement, so too do a lot of sharp bettors. 

Seton Hall has scored 60 points or less in four of its last five games. Those offensive woes should come to an end today. Prior to beating Providence Wednesday, St. John’s had allowed 76 or more points in five consecutive contests. There could also be a key absence here for the Red Storm as PG Posh Alexander (second leading scorer) is dealing with a thumb injury. According to Joe Lunardi, Seton Hall is currently the first team OUT on the NCAA Tournament bubble. That makes this a “must-win.” After falling apart in the 2H at home vs. UConn on Weds, motivation will be at an all-time high. St. John’s did beat Providence by 14 on Weds, but also trailed by as many as 11 early on. 10* Seton Hall

8* Indiana (2:00 ET): Already seeing their NCAA Tournament hopes dwindle, the Hoosiers could be without two starters today against #23 Purdue. They lost for a fourth straight time Tuesday, 64-58 at Michigan State and seemed to fade down the stretch. Race Thompson, who leads the team in FG%, exited with a facial injury and is questionable to play here. Second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin is almost certain to miss a third straight game due to a foot injury. But despite all the attrition, I expect IU to “show up” on Saturday. Take the points with what should be a VERY motivated underdog. 

While Indiana has been languishing, in-state rival Purdue has been surging. The Boilermakers have won four in a row with the latest victory coming against Wisconsin, 73-69 (as 2-pt favorites) on Tuesday. However, this feels like a golden opportunity to “sell high.” Much of Purdue’s recent success has come against teams in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. With Indiana’s injury woes and the fact Purdue has won eight in a row in this rivalry, don’t be surprised if the favorite comes in overconfident. 

I don’t blame the injuries for IU’s loss Tuesday. The team shot 2 of 20 from three-point range and leading scorer Jackson-Davis (19.4 PPG) finished with only nine points. Still, the team lost by only six points. A lot of Purdue’s recent wins have been against Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska. In an 8-3 SU stretch, those bottom four teams in the Big 10 account for six of the Boilermakers’ wins. The seniors on Indiana, having NEVER beaten Purdue, are gonna give everything they have here and I expect a close game Saturday afternoon. 8* Indiana

8* Wake Forest (8:00 ET): These are certainly two teams trending in opposite directions with Georgia Tech coming in on a 5-game SU win streak (also 6-0 ATS L6) and Wake Forest now 0-6 ATS its last six games and 0-5 SU its L5. Furthermore, the Yellow Jackets already own a 70-54 win (at home) against the Demon Deacons. That game took place back on January 3rd. You may recall I used GT two weeks ago when they travelled to Va Tech and won 69-53. They’ve since prevailed against Duke and Syracuse, both of those wins coming in Atlanta. The key here is the Yellow Jackets aren’t this big of a favorite very often. 

This point spread is a clear byproduct of recent form as Wake Forest is off five consecutive double digit defeats. It’s admittedly been a BRUTAL stretch as both Clemson and Va Tech held them under 50 points, then came a loss to a bad Pitt team (on Tuesday) that had one of its best players just recently transfer. But I don’t think the Demon Deacons are as bad as some of these scores show. They’d actually covered seven of eight before the 6-game ATS slide, showing how volatile the point spread can be. That 7-1 ATS stretch included them taking Florida State into overtime. 

Georgia Tech is now firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble after snapping a 14-game losing streak to Duke. The Yellow Jackets won that game 81-77 in overtime after blowing a seven-point lead in the final 30 seconds of regulation. They’ve now clinched a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, which is huge. But this just REEKS of a letdown game and the only time they’ve been favored by this many points in ACC play is when they HOSTED Wake in early January. The fact the line is basically the same on the road means there’s value on the home dog and I’m going to take it. Ga Tech is just 3-5 SU on the road this season. 8* Wake Forest

10* Hawaii (7:00 ET): I’ve got Hawaii rated as the better team here and I don’t think whatever “home court advantage” exists in 2021 is enough to justify UC Davis being a slight favorite in this Big West matchup Friday night. UC Davis is on a five-game win streak, but three of the last four victories have been by two points with two of them coming in overtime. Hawaii has also been successful in close games recently as their last three victories have been by a total of six points. But they are 0-6 ATS L6 and I think they’re due to end that unusual streak. 

Hawaii swept its two games with Long Beach State last weekend, winning 78-76 and 79-76. Those games took place out in Honolulu and both times the Warriors had to rally from halftime deficits. This will be just the second trip to the mainland since the end of January. The other one resulted in a split of two games with CS Northridge. Having been favored in each of its last four games, I see some value on Hawaii here against a UC Davis team that often struggles to defend. 

The host Aggies are allowing opponents to shoot 49.3% for the year when they are at home. Now the defense has gotten a bit better during the five-game win streak as they’ve allowed more than 66 just once. At the same time though, they’re not shooting the ball that well, which has been an issue throughout conference play (40.9 FG%). Hawaii has taken 7 of the last 10 meetings, including all four the previous two seasons. A case of the better team getting points here tonight. 10* Hawaii

10* Arizona State (9:00 ET): FYI - this game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Arizona State and Colorado both come into tonight on three-game winning streaks. However, that’s where the similarities end as the season has gone MUCH better for the Buffaloes. I’ve previously stated that I think CU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. However, if there is a “bone to pick” in Boulder, it’s that the Buffs oftentimes “play down” to their competition. Coming off wins over USC and UCLA, I think that might be the case here. 

Arizona State has had a dreadful season at the betting window as they are 4-16 ATS. But the Sun Devils have not only won three straight, but also six of their last nine games. The last three were all in Tempe and they were favored against Washington twice and Washington State last Saturday. They failed to cover the last two, so they’re now 0-9 ATS the L9 times they’ve been favored. But it’s a pretty big number they’re GETTING here tonight and I like it as the Sun Devils have suffered only three double digit losses since 2021 began. 

This is also Colorado’s final regular season game (ASU has one more, at Utah) and they’ve already clinched a 1st round bye in the Pac 12 Tournament. So the tendency for a “let down” is even more prevalent. It’s not like Senior Night means what it normally does. The Buffaloes have already lost to Cal and Washington as a big favorite and while those came on the road, they are still just 1-7 ATS when facing a team with a losing record past the 15-game mark in the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona State

8* Bradley (6:00 ET): I think we’ve got ourselves a “false favorite” here in the 1st round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, meaning the WRONG team is favored. Now I’d obviously be even MORE “all in” on Bradley were they not dealing with several suspensions. But my own power ratings say the Braves should be the ones favored here over 9-seed Southern Illinois, who I think was the worst team in the entire MVC during the regular season. About a month ago, these teams split a pair of meetings in Peoria, but SIU’s win came by just a single point. 

Now those two meetings did come before the suspensions that were handed down to four Bradley players. To address the “elephant in the room,” those suspensions came about due to an ongoing police report. But the suspensions also didn’t stop the Braves from stunning Drake this past weekend, 67-61 as an 8.5-point home dog. Drake is probably a NCAA Tournament team, whether or not they win this Tournament. The previous four games had not been good for Bradley, but Saturday’s upset tells me they can still beat the worst team in the Missouri Valley. 

Southern Illinois lost a couple close ones to Loyola Chicago last weekend. One of the games even went to overtime. But this is a team that has just ONE win by greater than three points going back to the start of the 2021 calendar year! The Salukis are on a 3-0 ATS win streak right now, but were obviously huge dogs in both games against Loyola. They’ve been favored away from home (this game is in St. Louis) only one other time this season and that was the very first game (vs. SE Missouri State). Since opening 7-0 SU, they are just 4-13 SU overall. 8* Bradley

8* Idaho State (9:05 ET): While not a lot of people are going to be playing this matchup tonight, it already feels like the sharp money is on Idaho State. The Bengals are certainly not going to attract a lot of attention from the public, but this is a great spot to take them. They did just lose two in a row at home, both to Montana. But the games were close (decided by a total of seven points) and ISU hasn’t been this big of an underdog since it covered the spread at Utah back on December 8th. 

Now there’s a reason the spread is so large for tonight. Eastern Washington leads the Big Sky with an 11-2 SU conference record and has won its last nine games. They’ve covered the spread in the last five and are 7-2 ATS L9. But a two-week layoff probably came at the wrong time. The Eagles haven’t played since winning at Montana on February 22nd and could very well be “out of rhythm” for tonight. That’s a concern when laying such a big number at the betting window. 

Idaho State is 6-2 ATS on the road this season. For all their dominance, Eastern Washington has been asked to lay 12.5 or more points only one time at home. That was against last place Idaho, who is 1-20 SU. Idaho State is better than they are being given credit for. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS coming off a conference loss. They are tied for 4th in the Big Sky and while there’s a big gap between the top three and everyone else, it’s a respectable place to be. Take the points. 8* Idaho State

10* UNLV (9:00 ET): This is a golden opportunity for UNLV to possibly spring an upset. That may seem like a shocking statement considering how well San Diego State has played recently. But the Rebels almost always seem to give the Aztecs fits as the last four meetings have all been decided by single digits with three of those final margins being four points or less. The last time the teams met was just over a year ago and UNLV won that one (on the road) 66-63 as 14.5-point underdogs. 

The Aztecs have swept their last five opponents, winning 10 in a row overall with nine of the wins coming by 12 or more. They are ranked #19 in the latest AP Poll (#21 in Coaches). However, they’ve really been feasting on the bottom of the Mountain West with eight of those 10 victories coming against teams in the lower half of the standings. They had a lot more trouble last weekend with a good Boise State team as those wins came by just 4 and 12 points. The 12-point victory is completely misleading as that game went to OT.

SDSU’s regular season was supposed to end Saturday, but this is a make-up game. UNLV has another make-up game coming Saturday at Wyoming. So it is their final home game before the MWC Tournament (played here in Vegas). The Rebels have won three of four, including a big comeback against Fresno State on Friday. Over its last eight games, UNLV has been beaten by more than three points only one time. They are 8-3 SU at home and averaging 12.6 more PPG than they allow. Take the points. 10* UNLV

8* Utah (7:00 ET): Oregon State has been one of the best bets in the country over the last two months as they are 12-1-1 ATS their L14 games including six straight covers. This is actually the Beavers’ second six-game ATS win streak during that time. The first ended with a push against Washington State (they won that game by two) then they were annihilated 79-48 at Colorado. Since then, yes they are 6-0 ATS, but only 3-3 SU. OSU has won two straight, both on the road, but I feel their “mojo” runs out here as they play a third straight road game against a revenge-minded Utah squad. Lay the short number in this one. 

On Saturday, Utah showed what it is capable of as they beat USC 71-61 right here in Salt Lake City. The Utes were 4.5-point underdogs in that one, as you figured they might be considering they were up against the team many feel is the best in the Pac 12 this year. But the Utes played an almost flawless second half and went on to record its first win of the season against a Top 25 opponent. However, that’s a little misleading as they've also beaten Colorado (before the Buffaloes were ranked). 

Utah is far better than its 10-11 SU record as there have been a few losses this year where they blew large halftime leads. They’ve beaten USC, Colorado and Arizona, which is no small achievement. One team they did not beat was Oregon State as two weeks ago it was an 18-point loss in Corvallis. Interestingly enough, the Utes were favored (by two) to win that day. I think we’re getting a real “discount” on them at home tonight as the Beavers average only 62.1 PPG away from home while the Utes allow just 64.1 PPG at home. Prior to winning its last two games, OSU was just 1-6 SU in road games. 8* Utah 

10* Illinois (7:00 ET): You’ve gotta hand it to Michigan. Since returning to action (season paused for 3 weeks due to COVID), the Wolverines have faced Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana. They not only beat all four, they covered the spread in every game. They also beat Rutgers on 2/18, but were denied a cover on the final shot of the game. The end result of this is that the Wolverines are now ranked #2 in the country (thanks to Baylor losing Saturday). They’ll faced their fourth Top 25 opponent in the L16 days here and that opponent is #4 Illinois.

The Fighting Illini could again be short-handed Tuesday as leading scorer Ayo Dosunmo is still dealing with a broken nose. But they didn’t have him Saturday when they went to Madison and beat Wisconsin 74-69 as a 4.5-point dog. Nor did they have him in a 16-point win at Nebraska. They actually led wire to wire against Wisconsin, despite it being their third game in five days and not having their leading scorer. This is a team with just one loss in its last 10 games. Even before that, they always deserved to be considered among the very best teams in the country.

This number is clearly inflated in light of Dosunmu’s uncertain status. To be clear, I’m taking the points regardless. Four of the Illini’s six losses this season have been by six points or less. My own personal power rankings put this number at +4. Illinois has been an underdog only three times all season and won two of the three outright. Michigan has undoubtedly been excellent, but they are also “due” for a slip-up. Illinois is a better team than Ohio State and better defensively than Iowa. Kofi Cockburn has really stepped up in Dosunmo’s absence and if the latter can play here, consider it a bonus. 10* Illinois

8* South Carolina (6:30 ET): So, here’s the thing. For much of this season, I’ve been saying Arkansas was a whole heck of a lot better than people think. Wouldn’t you know, the Razorbacks are now on a 9-game SEC win streak and have climbed to #12 (in the country!) in the polls? Now I think they’re being slightly overrated! It’s time to “sell high” on the Hogs, at least temporarily, as they travel to Columbia Tuesday night to face a South Carolina team that’s off a 21-point win at Georgia. 

That 21-point win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Gamecocks as they are near the bottom of the SEC standings. But you wouldn’t have known that by watching them Saturday as they raced out to a double digit halftime lead and were up by as many as 25 in the 2H. There’s something about playing Georgia that brings out the best in South Carolina as they’ve now beaten the Bulldogs 10 straight times, including 83-59 earlier in the year. Now they’ll try and win B2B SEC games for the first time this season. 

I’m not convinced the home team can win outright tonight, but I do like them plus the points. Arkansas is just 4-4 SU away from Fayetteville with the two most recent wins coming by a total of six points.  The Razorbacks actually trailed LSU by 10 in the first half Saturday (this was at home) so the 8-point win was a little misleading. Keep your eyes on South Carolina’s Jermain Couisnard, who had a season-high 23 points over the weekend. Arkansas hasn’t been great defending the 3-point line on the road (allowing 40%), which is why they give up an average of 82.4 PPG away from home. This is the Gamecocks’ home finale, so they’ll be motivated. 8* South Carolina

8* Oregon (9:00 ET): Oregon has taken 9 of the last 11 meetings from Arizona, including six straight. Each of the last three have been really close, however don’t look for that to be the case tonight. It all boils down to motivation as Arizona is playing its final game due to a postseason ban. Oregon is rolling right now (won 7 of 8) and trying to lock down the top seed for the Pac 12 Tournament. Tonight should be a much easier win for the Ducks than it was in Tucson a few weeks ago. Lay the points. 

Oregon just completed a three-game road trip on Saturday with a 74-63 win over Cal as nine-point chalk. They led wire to wire. The team’s only loss in its last eight games came at the start of the road trip, exactly one week ago at USC. There’s no shame in that loss. Ever since putting the COVID issues behind them, the Ducks have really looked great and I consider them to be the third best team in the league, behind Colorado and USC. They are 9-2 here at home where they allow only 62.8 PPG. 

Arizona is 5th in the Pac 12, which is an accurate representation of where they are at in the conference pecking order. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak, which includes a win at USC, but the other two victories were against Washington State and Washington. They only won by one (75-74) on Saturday and that was against perhaps the worst team in the conference. The game-winner came with just 5.2 seconds remaining. While the Wildcats usually dominate the glass, that wasn’t the case in the 1st game with the Ducks. 8* Oregon

10* Over UMass/Saint Louis (6:00 ET): It’s been a really challenging regular season for both of these teams, even by 2020-21 standards. For UMass, the season did not even get underway until December 11th and they’ve only gotten 12 games in. Still, the Minutemen are set to finish with a winning record for the first time in six years. Saint Louis was once considered a Top 25 team, but a LONG pause in its season (played only one game in January) really seems to have set them back. No longer are the Billikens a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and they need a strong finish, not just here, but in the A-10 Tourney as well. 

Something else these teams have in common is lots of Unders. Saint Louis has gone Under in its last seven games while UMass is 5-0 Under its last five. The Minutemen are off a 75-69 loss at Richmond where they never led and shot just 25.9% from three-point range. It was only their second loss in the last seven games though. Saint Louis won on Friday, ironically against Richmond, 72-67 as they not only shot exceptionally well (54.5% from 3-pt range), but also played great defense (held Richmond to 24 first half points). 

Despite the recent rash of Unders from both teams, I see this one sneaking Over the total. UMass has five double digit scorers and is averaging 76.8 points per game. Saint Louis averages 78.9 PPG at home. The Billikens may not shoot the ball as well here as they did in their last game, but the Minutemen should see improved shooting from their performance against Richmond. Saint Louis is also a beast on the boards and should get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight. The Over is 6-0 in UMass’ last six Monday games. 10* Over UMass/Saint Louis

10* Florida International (3:00 ET): It’s been a REALLY rough stretch for FIU as they’ve not only lost 12 in a row straight up to D-I opposition, but they’re also just 1-11 ATS in those games! The Panthers’ only win since January 8th came against Florida Memorial. What’s so odd about all of this is that they got off to a decent start to the season as they stood at 8-3 SU after the first 11 games. The bottom has completely dropped out, but for several reasons (see below) I think they’re catching today’s opponent at a most opportune time.

Western Kentucky stepped out of conference play earlier this week and that did not go well for them. They were thumped 81-57 at Houston. Now the Hilltoppers are 6-0 L6 C-USA games and Houston is a top 10 team in the country. So you’d think that WKU has nothing to “hang their heads” over and, really, they don’t. However, don’t be surprised if this turns into a bit of a “letdown” scenario. Certainly they were expecting to do better against Houston and it’ll be easy to overlook FIU.

Bottom line: it’s a boatload of points we’re getting here. I do not expect an outright upset by any means. But FIU is only being outscored by 1.1 PPG on the year. WKU is only +4.1 PPG on the year and even at home that number only jumps to +9.6. I know the Panthers’ best player just left the program, but I see the team competing on Sunday. WKU is just 5-9 ATS as a favorite, including 0-3 when laying 12.5 or more at home. 10* Florida International

8* San Francisco (10:00 ET): San Francisco is a better team than what they’ve shown recently. The Dons come into this regular season finale on a five-game losing streak, although they at least covered the spread (+9.5) Thursday night at BYU. Before that, they’d failed to cover four in a row and three of those were outright losses as favorites. But most of these losses, save for when they have to face Gonzaga, have been close. I think they go into the WCC Tournament on a “high note” as it should be an easy win tonight at Pacific. 

Pacific also hasn’t had much to cheer about lately. They’ve dropped 7 of their last 10 and two of those three wins came against an atrocious Portland team that is the worst in the whole WCC. The other was against San Diego, who is in second to last place. Thursday saw the Tigers lose an ugly one, 56-48 at St. Mary’s as they were held to just 32.8% shooting including 2 of 9 from three-point range. It was also the sixth time in the last 11 Pacific games they were kept under 60 points. 

Incredibly, USF has been held to just 38.2% shooting while allowing 56.0% shooting during its five game losing streak. That can’t continue. As I just mentioned, Pacific is not a great offensive team (below 30% for the year from 3-point range!) and the Dons are still only allowing 30.7% shooting from behind the arc on the road this season. I just can’t see them losing for a sixth straight time. The road team has covered seven of the last eight meetings. 8* San Francisco

10* Under Florida State/North Carolina (4:00 ET): Florida State’s reputation precedes itself here as the total is very high for this matchup with North Carolina. That’s due in large part to the Seminoles’ incredible run of Overs, which now stands at 11 straight games, a streak which dates all the way back to late December. Not to be outdone, UNC has been a “boon” for Over bettors as well. The Over is 3-0 their L3 and 8-3 their L11. When these teams met last month in Tallahassee, the ‘Noles won 82-75. 

However, it is notable that the O/U line in that first meeting was “only” 143.5. That’s a double digit difference compared to today’s O/U line. Obviously, an increase had to be expected. But I think the oddsmakers have gone a bit “overboard” on this one, possibly trying to “suck the public in.” This will be the highest O/U line for any FSU game this season while North Carolina has had only one higher and that was back in early December vs. Iowa, one of the highest scoring teams in the country that also isn’t great defensively.

Florida State’s scoring average predictably dips on the road, so I don’t see them matching some of their recent point totals. They’ve only played five road games all season! Two of them marked their lowest scoring games of the year, a 77-67 loss at Clemson and a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech. North Carolina just got torched by Marquette, but that was after holding its three previous opponents all to 62 points or less. The Tar Heels are 12-5 Under following a game where they allowed 80+ points. 10* Under Florida State/North Carolina

8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): My own personal power ratings say the oddsmakers are still underrating Tarleton State. Now the Texans are by no means a great team, or even a good one, but I think they deserve far more respect than what they are getting here at home vs. New Mexico State tonight. It was exactly one week ago that I backed Tarleton State and they ended up winning at Dixie State by a score of 77-59. While they lost the follow-up (Saturday), I still believe they’re underrated here. 

New Mexico State is coming off a split of its own last weekend as they won one and lost one at home vs. Utah Valley State. The key is they won the second game. It has been almost three months since the Aggies won B2B games and when they did it was the first two games of the season, both of which were against non-DI opponents. COVID-19 really wreaked havoc on NMSU’s early season schedule, but they’ve played six games in February and gone 3-3 SU. They are 1-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite this season. 

Last Friday I said it was hard to justify Dixie State being a favorite against anyone. This week I’m saying it’s just as difficult to justify NMSU being a road favorite, especially one of this size. Tarleton State is 4-2 SU at home and while most of those wins were against non-DI teams, they’ve averaged 88.7 PPG. New Mexico State shoots just 27.2% from three-point range on the road while Tarleton State shoots at 40% for the year from there. Not only can the home team cover this one, they can win the game outright. 8* Tarleton State

8* Little Rock (7:30 ET): Little Rock has really hit the skids of late by losing its last six games. They were favored to win in each of the last four, so it’s REALLY been a disappointing stretch. The Trojans got swept by Texas State, Arkansas State and LA Monroe. However, key to understanding this streak is the fact that only one game was played here at home and that was only a two-point loss to Arkansas State. The team is back in Little Rock tonight and I like their chances against Louisiana, who is not sound defensively. 

These Sun Belt teams have already met twice this year, both times in Lafayette, and they split the pair. Both games were decided by just two points and interesting enough the Trojans were favored both times. So it certainly seems as if we’re getting a “discount” on them for tonight’s “rubber match” and the obvious explanation for that has been their poor recent form. Now their win in Lafayette earlier this season did see the Trojans come back from 10 down at the half to win in OT. But the loss was even crazier as the lights in the Cajun Dome briefly turned red on the final possession, clearly screwing with Little Rock’s final possession. It was absurd that the refs did nothing. 

While Little Rock continues to struggle from three-point range, they do lead the Sun Belt in 2-point FG% and free throw rate. So I believe they are going to be able to score plenty tonight against the team with the worst defensive efficiency rating in the conference. Louisiana gives up 77.8 PPG on the road and is just 1-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. The time is right for Little Rock to snap its long (and somewhat shocking) losing streak. 8* Little Rock

8* Bradley (7:00 ET): So there is a bit of a risk involved here as Bradley continues to be without three suspended players, including their two top leading scorers. (The suspensions are a part of an ongoing police investigation). The three games they’ve played since the suspensions have NOT gone well for the Braves as they’re 0-3 SU/ATS. However, the Braves get a break tonight in that Drake will be without its leading scorer (Shanquan Hemphill) and I don’t think that’s been properly accounted for in this line. Take the points. 

Bradley has been a massive underachiever this year in the Missouri Valley as they were projected to finish third and even got one first place vote in the preseason poll. Instead, they are 5-11 SU in conference play, which is tied for second worst. Despite the suspensions, the Braves still found themselves favored last Thursday here at home vs. Illinois State. They haven’t played since, so that’s a full week off to prepare for one of the toughest teams in the MVC. It should do the home dog some good. 

Drake’s absurd ATS run seems to be never ending as the Bulldogs are now 55-30 ATS their L85 games, including 18-4 this season. They’ve now won four straight since getting blown out at home by Loyola Chicago two weeks ago, which was a game I faded the Bulldogs. This is the first meeting of the year with Bradley and obviously a game Drake “can’t” lose, given that they are currently tied w/ Loyola a top the MVC standings. But playing w/o their leading scorer, the spread is just too high. 8* Bradley

10* Colorado (9:00 ET): Colorado has beaten USC five straight times, covering all but once and that was last year here in Boulder when they won 70-66 as a 9.5-point favorite. They’ve already beaten the Trojans once this season and that was on New Year’s Eve, 72-62 as a 4-point underdog. I’ve been quite vocal for months now that CU is a Top 25 caliber team and tonight is their chance to prove it. It speaks volumes that they are favored here against the #19 team in the country. I know it’s a home game, but I’m betting big on the Buffs tonight in a game they desperately need to have. 

Colorado is currently 4th in the Pac 12 standings, though I think it’s them and USC that are the two best teams. They trail the Trojans by 2.5 games with three more to play, but sweeping the season series would go a long way in keeping their chances alive to win the conference. A loss tonight and they’d be officially eliminated. Saturday saw the Buffaloes snap their first losing streak of this season (just two games) by beating Oregon State 61-57. They did not cover, dropping them to 2-6 ATS L8 games, but it’s only a small number we’re having to lay in this one. 

USC responded from its own loss by beating Oregon last time out. It was a very impressive effort against what had been a red hot Ducks team, however that game took place on Monday, which puts the Trojans at a bit of a disadvantage here. They’ve had just two days off between games while CU has had four. The Buffs have been very impressive at home this season, winning by an average of almost 19 PPG. USC’s third leading scorer (Isaiah Mobley) missed the Oregon game w/ a calf injury and is questionable to play here. I don’t think the Trojans will be getting off to the same kind of start we saw Monday (led by 21 at the break). 10* Colorado

8* Iowa (7:00 ET): It’s a top 10 battle in Ann Arbor Thursday night as #3 Michigan faces #9 Iowa. This is the second straight Top 10 opponent for the Wolverines as they just outlasted Ohio State 92-87 on Sunday as a 2-point road favorite. That made it three straight wins for the Maize and Blue since they got back on the court following a three-week absence. While it’s tough to “poke holes” in a team that’s 16-1 SU on the season, it should be pointed out that those last three wins have all been by eight points or less. 

Iowa has won four straight, three of them by double digits. Two were on the road, at Michigan State and at Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes won those games by a combined 45 points! The one close one came Sunday as they beat Penn State by only six, 74-68 as a 10-point favorite. The Hawkeyes actually trailed at the half in that one, though there was plenty of cause for celebration as Luke Garza became the program’s all-time leading scorer. Also, Iowa’s defense has gotten much better over the L5 games as they’re holding opponents to just 36% shooting.

Something about Iowa being an underdog is that three of their six losses this year have been by five points or less. I’m going to take the points here as the teams are rated almost even in my own power ratings. Yes, I’ve got Iowa rated better than the team Michigan just beat, Ohio State. The Wolverines also had to rally back from their own halftime deficit against Wisconsin. The fact they are playing two straight top 10 opponents is tough while the third time should be the charm for Iowa against top five teams (lost to Gonzaga & Illinois). 8* Iowa

10* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I’m going all in on the Vols Wednesday as they visit in-state rival Vandy. Tennessee is off a loss here (to Kentucky) and is just 3-3 SU in its last six games. This slide has dropped them to #25 in the rankings, but I’m not that worried as they remain much higher in my own power ratings and are a top five team in defensive efficiency. It would certainly appear as if we’re getting a real “discount” on UT tonight considering they were 21.5-point favorites the first time they faced Vandy, a game they won comfortably, 81-61. I’ll gladly lay the number on the road here.

Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 2-10 SU conference record. After recording that second win on February 13th, 72-51 at Mississippi State, the Commodores have subsequently dropped B2B games by the same 82-78 score. They were against Kentucky and Alabama. But note they actually trailed UK by as much as 17 and while they were more competitive vs. Bama, they were also down double digits in the 2H there. The fact the Commies come in having not suffered an ATS loss in their L7 games (6-0-1) has obviously played a significant role in this line being shorter than it should. I’d pump the brakes on calling Vandy “competitive.”

Tennessee shot poorly vs. Kentucky (35.3 FG%) with leading scorer Springer finishing with only four points. They also were outworked on the glass with Josiah-Jordan James sitting for a second straight game. Whether or not James returns, I expect the Volunteers to improve in all areas tonight. Not only did they shoot well in the first game vs. Vandy, they scored 93 against South Carolina (with James sitting) last Wednesday. Meanwhile, I can’t see Vandy shooting 10 of 23 from 3-point range again, like they did vs. Bama. I know this game is in Nashville, but the line shouldn’t be 15 points off from where it was when the teams played in Knoxville. 10* Tennessee

8* Texas (9:00 ET): This is a critical game for #14 Texas. While there’s no doubt that they’re heading to the NCAA Tournament, the Longhorns are off a loss here at home (84-82 to West Virginia) and only 2-4 SU their last six games overall. They’re also just 1-7 ATS L8 and now they welcome in #17 Kansas, who just made a big move up the latest rankings. The Jayhawks are on a 5-0 SU/ATS run and coming off a wire to wire victory over Texas Tech. But seeing as what happened the last time these teams played (Texas won by 25 in Lawrence), I’ve got no hesitation about laying the short number here. 

While they led wire to wire Saturday, KU did allow a Texas Tech team that hadn’t played in 10 days to cut the lead down to three in the final minute. Looking at the 5-game win streak, it’s not all that impressive when you consider three of the wins were at the expense of Iowa State and Kansas State, the bottom two teams in the Big 12. Certainly nothing was impressive when the Jayhawks hosted Texas on January 2nd as they were handed their worst home loss ever under HC Bill Self. Don’t forget this team had fallen out of the rankings prior to this winning run. 

Texas led WVU by as many as 19 early in the second half, so that’s a game they clearly should have won. They wilted late and the end result was their fourth loss in Austin in the last eight games. All four were against ranked teams, but the Longhorns need to be better at home. They should certainly be confident here after what they did to Kansas the last time and a win would give the program’s 1st ever season-sweep of the Jayhawks. I think Shaka Smart’s team delivers. 8* Texas

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): While I may not think that #7 Oklahoma is as good as its ranking, they shouldn’t have much trouble with Kansas State Tuesday night. I say that based on a number of factors, the most obvious being a 76-50 win over the Wildcats last month. That thrashing in Norman actually snapped an 0-5 ATS run against K-State, but let’s not sugarcoat how UGLY things have been in Manhattan this season. The Wildcats are just 6-18 SU, including 2-13 in Big 12 play.

Now Kansas State did defeat TCU on the road Saturday, 62-54 as a seven-point underdog. But that was their first win in 2021, snapping a 13-game losing streak. They trailed by five late, but a rare strong closing effort got them the ‘W’. But don’t expect any kind of “carryover” effect to tonight. The Wildcats have yet to win a single Big 12 home game this season and they are 3-11 ATS overall in the “Little Apple.” They are 0-2 ATS this season when trying to avenge a 20+ point loss. 

Oklahoma won at Iowa State on Saturday, it’s eight victory in the last nine games. While it was a 66-56 final in Ames, the Sooners could not cover as 12-point favorites. But they led at one point by 21, so I’d call it a dominant effort. So too was the first meeting with Kansas State as OU allowed just 36.1% shooting, including 3 of 15 from three-point range. Look for more of the same this go around as the Sooners make it B2B double digit victories. 8* Oklahoma

10* Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): Similar to what I predicted would happen with Missouri, #17 Virginia Tech is a team that should start to tumble down the rankings. It’s been 17 days since the Hokies last played a game. Back on Feb 6th, they were able to squeak by a very undermanned Miami team 80-76 in overtime, but did not cover the spread. It will be interesting to see how they now respond from such a long layoff. Georgia Tech is no slouch and just won by 27 at Miami, obviously a margin far greater than what Va Tech won by there. 

While Va Tech has been on hiatus, Georgia Tech has played four games. They’ve covered the last three, beating Pitt and losing by only two at Clemson. The Yellow Jackets also hold a win over Florida State, who is arguably the best team in the entire ACC this season. The 87-60 win at Miami was the program’s largest road win ever in ACC play and they led 48-18 at halftime. This is an experienced team for HC Josh Pastner with four players that have 1,000+ career points. Only one other team in the country can claim that. GT is desperate to end a decade long NCAA Tourney drought. 

Even before the three straight postponements, Va Tech had been without second leading scorer Tyrece Radford. So that’s something else they’ve got to overcome. This is a team that would barely make my Top 40, let alone Top 25. They’ve had good fortune in going 6-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less. One game that was NOT close was LY’s visit down to Atlanta, which the Hokies lost 76-57. It’s telling that the #16 team in the country is such a short favorite at home vs. an unranked foe. Take the points. 10* Georgia Tech

10* Elon (7:00 ET): Elon is near the bottom of the CAA standings, however, they’ll enter tonight’s game with William & Mary pretty confident. It was just 48 hours ago that they blew out the Tribe, 75-54 as a 2.5-point dog. That was on the road as well. Led by Darius Buford’s career-high 27 points, the Phoenix jumped out to a massive 44-23 halftime advantage and never looked back. W&M leading scorer Luke Loewe finished with only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. 

While I do not think it will be THAT easy for Elon this time around, expect them to get the job done at home tonight. Saturday was their second win in a row as they won at College of Charleston (as an eight-point dog) 66-55 on Valentine’s Day. Tonight will be just the SECOND home game for the Phoenix since the New Year! They have not won at home since December 16th against Campbell, but that’s a little misleading as they’ve played only two home games since then. I am expecting them to be VERY motivated tonight as they now close out the regular season with three consecutive home games. 

William & Mary is 8-2 ATS on the road this season, including three outright upsets in their last three tries. But with four of the Tribe’s six victories this year coming by five points or less, they easily could have a worse record. Two of their wins have come by exactly one point. This team was projected to finish last in the Colonial back in the preseason poll and I haven’t even mentioned yet that Saturday was their first time on the court in nearly a month. It showed and I don’t think they can turn things around in 48 hours against the same opponent. 10* Elon

8* SIU Edwardsville (6:00 ET): SIU Edwardsville hasn’t had much to cheer about this season, but the Cougars actually have some reasons for optimism Monday despite being a double digit dog at home. First off, they’ve had Morehead State’s number of late, at least at the betting window where they’ve covered seven of the last eight head to head meetings. They won outright the first time they played this season, 69-65 (as a 5-pt road dog) back on December 18th. Looking at the line for this rematch, it just doesn’t make sense when compared to the number (and result!) of that first encounter. 

Now things quickly went downhill for SIU Edwardsville after that upset win three months ago. Their season was essentially paused for the next month with eight straight postponements. Since returning to the court, they are just 5-10 and the last four games, all double digit losses, have been ugly. But three of those came on the road. The first meeting with Morehead State was as good as the Cougars have looked all season. I think that’s significant. 

Also significant is the fact this is Morehead State’s fourth consecutive road game. They are coming off a 10-point win at Tenn-Martin, which is the Eagles’ 10th win in the last 11 games overall. Morehead State shot 56% Saturday, but only 35% in the first game vs. SIU Edwardsville.  Make no mistake about it, recent form has “jacked up” this line. But I just can’t see why a team would be getting only five on the road, win outright, then be getting double digits at home. It’s a great value on the home dog here, so “hold your nose” and take the points. 8* SIU Edwardsville

10* Over Valparaiso/So Illinois (5:00 ET): Valpo came through for me in a big way earlier in the week, easily covering a massive 20.5-point spread against a very good Loyola Chicago team. The ATS result was never in doubt as the Crusaders allowed just 54 points in the game and held the Ramblers to 38.5% shooting. They actually led outright at the half. Still though, this is a team that hasn’t had much reason to celebrate recently as they’ve lost six of their last eight games to fall way off the pace in the Missouri Valley. 

Southern Illinois isn’t doing any better than Valpo this season. While the Salukis did manage to go 6-0 against the non-conference schedule, they didn’t really have any quality wins (Butler?) and are just 4-10 SU in conference play. They’ve failed to score even 60 points in any of the last four games, one of which they did manage to win (against last place Illinois State). It was another ugly shooting night earlier this week when SIU lost here in Carbondale to Missouri State by a score of 68-53.

Despite all the low point totals posted by these two teams recently, I’m “holding my nose” and taking the Over in this one. When the total is 133 points or lower, Southern Illinois is 5-1 Over this season. The 53 points scored on Wednesday matched a season-low, set in the first game vs. Missouri State. For the year, the Salukis are averaging 68.5 PPG at home. The last time Valparaiso was held to 52 points and faced a different opponent the next time out, they went for 70 and that too was on the road (at N Iowa). 10* Over Valparaiso/Southern Illinois

9* St. Bonaventure (3:30 ET): After turning in a perfect 7-0 record in the month of January, the Bonnies have dropped two of three games here in February. You might recall that their 70-59 loss to Saint Louis on 2/6 was a 10* Game of the Week winner for me. After quickly bouncing back w/ an 86-73 win over LaSalle, the Bonnies lost again - by only three points - at VCU two Fridays ago. They haven’t taken the court in nine days as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. George Mason was postponed due to weather.

This will be Davidson’s first “real’ game since January 24th vs. UMass. The Wildcats have been dealing with COVID-19 and as a result have played just one time in February. It was 48 hours ago against Southern Virginia, a non D-I team, and you can guess how that one went (Davidson won 101-51). While it was the Wildcats’ fifth straight victory, look at the teams they beat. In addition to a non D-I team, they’ve faced UMass, Fordham, LaSalle and St. Joe’s. That’s the three worst teams (UMass excluded) in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure certainly won’t be lacking for motivation on Sunday as they are 1-7 SU/ATS the L8 meetings (0-4 L4) with Davidson and haven’t beaten them in regulation since 2016. I know Davidson is perfect (3-0) ATS as an underdog in 2020-21, but the Bonnies are 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 15.7 PPG. They also haven’t dropped B2B games this season. The long layoff between conference games definitely hurts Davidson here. 9* St. Bonaventure

8* DePaul (7:30 ET): So DePaul is REALLY having a rough go of it lately. The Blue Demons have been without the services of their two top scorers and as a result have won just once over the last month. They’ve lost five straight, none of those coming by fewer than seven points. But they did compete hard against Seton Hall on Wednesday, easily covering the 14-point spread. They actually led outright, 46-42, in the second half before wilting late. They may be getting back one, or both, of the two leading scorers today. Regardless, I am taking the points in this one. 

St. John’s is a hot team right now as they’ve won seven of eight, the lone defeat coming by three points at Butler. However, it is notable that I faded the Red Storm in their lone defeat. In the analysis, I pointed out that this is not a good team defensively. They are giving up 76.7 PPG and that makes it difficult to cover the spread when you’re favored by this many points. Interestingly enough, this game marks the first time all year that the Johnnies are being asked to lay more than three points to a Big East opponent! 

They were only one-point favorites when they visited DePaul late last month. Now they did win that game 81-68, thanks to a big 1st half and some dreadful DePaul shooting. I think it’s worth mentioning that the Red Storm are just 8-19 ATS their L27 games when favored by 9 to 12.5 points at home. I’d obviously love it if DePaul could get back either Moore or Freeman-Liberty, but I think their defense can keep them in this one. The Blue Demons have held eight of their last nine opponents under 70 points (St. John’s the exception) and this will be their best offensive game in awhile. 8* DePaul

10* South Dakota (4:00 ET): South Dakota has hit a recent downturn, losing three straight including two when favored at North Dakota last weekend. The losing streak has taken the Coyotes out of first place in the Summit League. They were previously 9-0 SU in conference play. They’re still tied for the most conference wins, but are now one-half game back of surging rival South Dakota State, who is 7-2 SU. I think it’s important to note that all three losses for the Coyotes came on the road. They’re back in Vermillion Saturday, hosting Oral Roberts in a key set of games. I’ll lay the short number here. 

Oral Roberts split with South Dakota State last weekend. They scored 103 in the win, but gave up 95 in the loss. Expect a high-scoring game today as the last 14 meetings between these teams have all gone Over! However, South Dakota does have a big edge defensively as they’re giving up just 63.7 PPG at home, a big reason they are 5-1 SU here. Oral Roberts is giving up more than 80 PPG on the road. They allowed an average of 90.5 PPG in the two games last week vs. South Dakota State. This is a problem facing a South Dakota team that topped 90 in each of its last two home games. 

South Dakota has played 8 of its last 10 games on the road. They’ll close out the regular season with four straight at home, so I like their chances of winning the conference. When favored at home this season, the Coyotes are winning by an average of more than 25 PPG! So this looks to be a really discounted price here. They scored 57 points in the second half of their last game and I say they “score at will” here. 10* South Dakota

8* Syracuse (2:00 ET): Notre Dame comes in red hot here, as they’re 5-0 ATS L5 games. They’ve won four of those five games straight up w/ the only loss coming by two at Georgia Tech. But the ACC isn’t really all that strong this season and the teams that the Fighting Irish have been beating generally reside near the bottom of the standings. In fact, other than Duke (who is widely overrated), the Irish’s three other recent victories have come against teams in the bottom five in the conference. 

Syracuse has also won two straight vs. bottom tier ACC teams, beating NC State 77-68 and Boston College 75-67 last week. But the Orange’s 12-6 SU record is a lot better than Notre Dame’s 9-10 SU and I’m a little perplexed as to why this number would be so low at home. I’ve got the ‘Cuse rated as the better team and they’ve gone an impressive 10-1 SU this season at the Carrier Dome, including a dominant win over Top 25 Virginia Tech. They’re outscoring visitors by an average of 12.7 points per game. 

Syracuse is currently just one game back of the top four in the ACC, which would give them a double bye for the conference tournament. So it’s a big game for them today. Looking at the remaining schedule, they absolutely can win out. The Orange do an excellent job at defending the three-point line, especially at home where they allow opponents to shoot just 28% from behind the arc. That’s critical when facing Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank only 142nd nationally in defensive efficiency, which is a problem. 8* Syracuse

10* Tarleton State (9:00 ET): This is a battle of squads wrapping up their first regular season in Division I. The WAC, a real “rogue’s gallery” of a conference, welcomed both schools for 2020-21 and as you might have guessed, it hasn’t gone great for either Tarleton State or Dixie State. The former is 6-8 SU while the latter has gone 7-10 SU after an upset of Utah Valley State (as 11-point underdogs) last Saturday. Tarleton State has played only two games in February (because of COVID) and both were against non-DI opponents that they easily defeated by a combined score of 209-80. 

Prior to manhandling overmatched McMurry and SW Adventist, Tarleton State did the same thing that Dixie State just did. That being split with Utah Valley State. It was the same thing with an outright win in the second game preceded by a DD loss in the first. So the Texans actually come into this game riding a three-game win streak. Now all but one of their victories this year have been versus non-DI teams. But, believe it or not, my power ratings say they should be about a 5-point road favorite here. That’s a major difference from the actual spread. 

History could be made here if Dixie State closes as a favorite. It would be the Trailblazers’ first time ever being favored vs. a D-I opponent. Now similarly, Tarleton State has never been favored in such a game. But they’ve had more time to prepare for this game (10 days) and should be more than ready. I know it seems “risky” taking a “bad” team, but Tarleton State is the much better side here and the oddsmakers aren’t accounting for that. 10* Tarleton State

8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee (6:00 ET): You would be correct for saying it feels like “we’ve been here before” with Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies started their season with a rash of Overs before we took them (and cashed) Under in a game against Detroit on December 26th. That game stayed Under despite going to OT. Oakland has largely remained an “Over team” this season and is now on its longest Over streak (5 straight games) since I played that Under two months ago. It’s time to go Under again on Friday. 

Milwaukee will also be entering this game on a 5-game Over streak. The last four have all been losses. The Panthers had the tough assignment of facing Wright State on the road last weekend and gave up 92 points in both games. The final scores were nearly identical as Milwaukee scored 81 and 82 in the two games. Two things killed the Panthers in the second game with Wright State. They sent the Raiders to the FT line 26 times (WSU went 24-26) and allowed them to hit 10 of 19 3PA. Truthfully, things were not much better in either department in the first game of the weekend. 

But Milwaukee isn’t facing Wright State tonight, they’re facing Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies don’t shoot the ball very well (41.3% overall) despite going Over all the time. The issue (for both teams) all year has been poor defense. But this looks like it will certainly close as the highest O/U line all year for Milwaukee and it’ll be right up there with the highest for Oakland, who is only 4-4 Over when the number is 150.0 or higher. 8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee

8* Rutgers (9:00 ET): After a three-week hiatus, #3 Michigan was successful in its return to the court Sunday. They downed #21 Wisconsin 67-59, however you shouldn’t be fooled by that score as the Wolverines trailed by 12 at halftime. Given the long layoff, I suppose a slow start by the Maize and Blue shouldn’t have been all that surprising. And their performance in the second half was definitely impressive. But I simply want no part of them laying this many points to a “sneaky” Rutgers team that could use a “signature” win to strengthen its own NCAA Tournament resume. Take the points here. 

Rutgers’ only loss in its last six games was at Iowa last Wednesday. They shot very poorly from the 3-point range (6 of 28) and attempted only six free throws in the game. Obviously, 66 points will almost never “cut it” in Iowa City. However, the Scarlet Knights did bounce back over the weekend with a 64-50 win against Northwestern. That kind of effort at the defensive end will almost ALWAYS “get it done.” Rutgers comes into tonight ranked #14 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game so far this season. Given they were “only” +6.5 at Iowa (who I think is a little better than Michigan), I’m surprised this line opened so high. 

Rutgers has NEVER beaten Michigan in 13 all-time tries. But they’ve played them tough in each of the L3 seasons. This is the only time they’re scheduled to meet in 2021. The Wolverines have obviously been impressive and can make a claim to be the best team in the country, besides Gonzaga and Baylor. But they’ve still only played one game in three weeks and it saw them start slow. Rutgers has held its last five opponents to a field goal percentage of 37.5. 8* Rutgers

10* UCLA (9:00 ET): Because they’ve failed to cover in seven straight contests, we are getting a discounted price on the Bruins tonight. I’ll bite. Mick Cronin’s team was able to win Saturday, 64-61 over Washington, thanks to a career-high 32 points from Johnny Juzang. With the number being so short here, the pointspread is basically a non-factor against an Arizona team that has lost four of its last six games and at this point should be considered a “long-shot” to make the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is a perfect 9-0 SU at home this season, not to mention 4-0 SU/ATS the L3 seasons vs. the Wildcats, so I’m on the favorites. 

You’ve got to remember that UCLA got off to a 8-0 start in Pac 12 play. Two of their five losses this year were to Ohio State and San Diego State (both ranked) and another by just a single point (at Stanford). They’ve already beaten Arizona once, 81-76 as four-point underdogs on Tucson back on January 9th. Because of the win over Washington on Saturday, the Bruins are probably the only team in the Pac 12 that can catch USC and they host the Trojans in the regular season finale. 

Arizona lost at home to Oregon on Saturday, 63-61 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’ve also lost their last two road games. HC Sean Miller called his team’s defense “horrible” after the 1st loss to UCLA and I’d have to concur as they’ve allowed 80+ points five times in conference play. This is a team that gets most of its offensive production from freshman and at the free throw line, not exactly a winning combination on the road. UCLA has won its nine home games by an average of 14.1 PPG. This looks like a bargain. 10* UCLA

8* Boise State (9:00 ET): I can’t see the Broncos losing again here, especially at home. They come into tonight’s important Mountain West clash with Utah State having gone just 3-3 SU their last six games. This after starting the season 12-1 SU with the only loss coming to Houston, a legit top ten team, in the season opener. BSU swept a pair of home games with UNLV last weekend and it’s developing into a VERY tight four team race atop the MWC. All of Boise’s losses this year have been on the road. 

These teams are basically tied for first in the Mountain West, though technically Utah State is ahead by percentage points with an 11-2 SU conference record while Boise State is 12-3. Lurking right behind is Colorado State (who BSU split with in Fort Collins) at 11-3. But then you’ve got perhaps the best team, San Diego State, who is ranked #25 in the country despite being in fourth place in the conference! Utah State swept San Diego State and split with Colorado State, but the key is all four of those games were at home. 

Tonight marks the fourth consecutive road game for USU. They’ll also play here Friday. However, the big key is the Aggies haven’t played in 13 days due to COVID. Three straight games were postponed. So they are out of “rhythm” heading into this critical clash. Boise State is not only 8-0 SU at home, they are allowing just 58.5 PPG and winning by more than 17 points per game. I think it’s a steal that we are able to get them at such a cheap price Wednesday night. 8* Boise State 

8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has gone Under in 10 straight games. The most recent was their lowest scoring yet, a 57-47 home loss to Providence. The Blue Demons are really struggling to shoot the ball right now as they have a field goal percentage well below 40% the L4 games. That number has GOT to improve. Tonight they are at Seton Hall, a team they scored 68 against earlier in the season while shooting 41.7%. That game was actually early in DePaul’s Under streak, but it’s certainly worth noting that the total for the rematch is 10 points lower.

Meanwhile, Seton Hall will be going for a fourth straight win tonight. They beat Marquette 57-51 here at home on Sunday, So both teams are coming off REALLY low-scoring games. Seton Hall shot just 37% vs. Marquette, but was at 52% when they beat DePaul last month. The Pirates have an excellent shot at winning out, which would greatly improve their NCAA Tournament chances, presuming they don’t “flame out” in the Big East Tourney. 

I know there’s not much recent evidence to support it, but I do see this game going Over the total. DePaul could be missing two of its top scorers, but this is a REALLY low total and Seton Hall scored 80 points two games ago. DePaul gives up 76.5 PPG on the road, which is key, and if Seton Hall can get to 80 tonight (very doable), then we’re in good shape. The first meeting would have gone Over this total. A 10-point shift in the O/U line is A LOT. 8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall

8* Valparaiso (8:00 ET): #23 Loyola Chicago was a big winner for me on Saturday as they rode a huge second half to an 81-54 blowout of Drake. But the Ramblers weren’t able to sweep the weekend series, losing Sunday in overtime by a score of 51-50. While they now have to be more concerned with keeping Drake (1 GB) “at arms’ length” in the race for the regular season Missouri Valley crown, this is a classic letdown spot for Loyola and they are laying a HUGE number against Valparaiso. I’m taking the points. 

Now the fact Loyola only allowed 105 points in two games over the weekend, one of which went to overtime, has to be a bit scary for Valpo here. Especially since they could only score 39 in the first meeting with the Ramblers, which was at home last month. As you could probably ascertain, it was a dreadful shooting game for Valpo, who was held to 30.6% overall and 3 of 20 from 3-pt range. You’ve gotta figure they’re going to shoot better tonight. Their FG% is at 44.6 L5 games. 

The Crusaders are off a loss here, 74-60 at Northern Iowa Sunday. While I don’t think for a second that they are likely to pull the outright upset tonight, this is a ton of points they’re getting and there’s been only one other time besides the first Loyola game that Valpo lost by more than 20 points. Last year’s three meetings with Loyola were decided by a total of SIX points. The Ramblers are 1-5 ATS their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points, including 0-2 this season. 8* Valparaiso

10* Loyola Marymount (9:00 ET): This is the second meeting of the season for these WCC rivals. Santa Clara pulled the upset the first time, winning 72-69 as 4.5-point road underdogs. That game took place on January 23rd and the Broncos haven’t played since. Their last six games have been postponed due to COVID and two of those were going to be against #1 Gonzaga. Loyola Marymount has also had some postponements, but they’ve gotten in two games since the loss to Santa Clara. They won both, by 25 at Portland and then by four at home against Pacific over the weekend. I’m taking them in the rematch. 

LMU closed Saturday’s game vs. Pacific on a massive 31-13 run, enabling them to pick up the victory. They shot a blistering 55.3% from the field, including 11 of 21 from three-point range. The Lions were also able to “double up” the Tigers in FT attempts for the game. Maybe they won’t shoot that well again tonight, but they probably don’t have to when you consider Santa Clara is averaging only 65.6 PPG and that number actually DROPS here at home. LMU is averaging 69.8 PPG on the season. 

There has been only one time all year that Loyola Marymount has lost as a favorite and it was the first meeting with Santa Clara. The Lions didn’t shoot well that night, but this time it figures to be Santa Clara that struggles offensively due to the long layoff. Loyola Marymount could easily be on a 5-game win streak right now as both losses they’ve suffered during that stretch were by four points or less. They are 5-1 ATS their L6 as a road favorite. The road team has covered seven straight times in this WCC rivalry. 10* Loyola Marymount

8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): There’s been a big change in the pointspread since the last time these teams met. Back on January 8th, MSU hosted Purdue and was a six-point favorite. They lost 55-54, but I don’t think that singular result, or even the fact it’s been a very trying season in East Lansing, justifies the massive swing we’ve got for this rematch. Purdue is off a loss as well, 71-68 at Minnesota, and has only managed to go 2-3 SU its last five games. I’m taking the points here. 

Now Sparty did just get clobbered at home over the weekend, losing by 30 to Iowa (88-58). That leaves them at 4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS in conference play. (Like I said earlier, it’s been a trying season). However, before that ugly loss, Tom Izzo’s team had won two in a row. Let’s be clear here that Purdue is NOT Iowa. While the Boilermakers were ranked as recently as last week, they’ve been involved in a lot of close games recently. Six of their last 11 games have been decided by five points or less, including four of the last six and each of the last three. 

The first meeting saw Michigan State own a 15-point halftime advantage, but they missed 11 of their last 13 field goal attempts and that’s why they lost by one point. You have to figure Izzo will have his team ready to play after being embarrassed by Iowa on Saturday. Purdue didn’t play over the weekend. The fact the Boilermakers have just one win by more than five points in their last six games looms large in my handicapping of this game. This should be a close, low-scoring battle and I give the underdogs a very good shot at winning outright. 8* Michigan State

8* Washington (8:00 ET): Washington is pretty bad (they are 3-16 SU!), but I actually don’t think Washington State is all that much better. When the Apple Cup rivals met two weeks ago, the Huskies were actually slight favorites. Now they lost that game by 15 points and now they’re on the road, but still I think the line is too high for this rematch. The Huskies played UCLA tough over the weekend, losing by just three (at home) while Wazzu was beaten by 11 (also at home) by USC. Take the points here.

Washington never actually led against UCLA on Saturday, but did show a lot of resolve by battling back from an early double-digit deficit to tie the game in the final minutes. They did so despite not even shooting the ball that well (36.2% overall) while UCLA made not only 47.1% overall, but 50% from three-point range. I know that the Huskies are winless on the road this season (0-10!), but this might be the best chance to pick up a road win all season. My power ratings say the spread should be no higher than +5. 

Washington State actually upset UCLA here in Pullman last Thursday. But they could not match the hot shooting from that game in the loss to USC. The Cougars have lost 8 of 11 overall and while all three wins have come in the last five games, tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been favored in over a month. Leading scorer Isaac Bonton had to be helped off the floor at the end of the game Saturday (ankle) and he’s not the only player questionable for this game (Jakimovski). 8* Washington

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps have been a bad matchup for Minnesota in the past, going 9-2 SU the L11 meetings including a perfect 4-0 the L4 here in College Park. They won 63-49 last month in Minneapolis, a result that was owed to an edge in rebounding and poor Minnesota shooting. The Golden Gophers connected on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts for the game and were 5 of 23 from three-point range. I’m a little surprised that this number opened so short. I’ll lay the points.

Now Minnesota is off a 71-68 win over #24 Purdue. Despite the Boilermakers being ranked, oddsmakers did NOT consider that to be an upset as the Golden Gophers came in as 2.5-point favorites. Still, the Gophers did need to rally in the final two minutes as they were down five. They outscored Purdue 12-4 over the final 2:10 with leading scorer Marcus Carr providing the difference with eight (points) of his own. While 3-0 ATS its last 3 games, it must be mentioned that Minnesota is 0-6 SU on the road this season.

The individual results have been every bit as ugly as the record for Minnesota on the road. They’ve lost the six games by an average of 17.3 PPG, allowing opponents to shoot 52.8% from the floor while they are shooting just 34.1% themselves. They’ve covered just one spread on the road this season and that was at Rutgers when they were getting 5.5 in a 76-72 loss. Maryland shoots the ball better than Minnesota and has a higher defensive efficiency rating. They also hold victories over Illinois and Wisconsin (both on the road!) 10* Maryland

8* Central Florida (1:00 ET): Cincinnati’s season was halted for nearly a month. Since returning to the court (on 2/4), the Bearcats are 3-0. However, those three wins have come by a COMBINED eight points and none were by more than three. As you probably guessed, all three games were not decided until the final minute. The most recent escape came on Friday against Temple as a few late free throws ensured a 71-69 victory (but not a cover). I think the Bearcats are due to lose and will take the points here.

Central Florida  is also off a narrow win on Friday as they beat Tulane 53-49. The Golden Knights held the Green Wave to just 19 points after halftime, which was the key to victory. There haven’t been too many victories this season in Orlando as UCF is just 3-9 SU its L12 games. But they’ve won two of the last three and the lone loss was by one point (61-60) to Wichita State. The Golden Knights have allowed an average of just 56 PPG during this three-game stretch, something I like to see from an underdog. 

Cincinnati has not been at .500 at any point this season. They come into Sunday at 6-7 SU on the year. They had really been struggling prior to the season being put on pause and three consecutive razor-thin victories are not enough to convince me this team is anything but mediocre. The Bearcats really struggle from three-point range (28.7%) and in what promises to be a very low-scoring game, you’re going to want to take the points. UCF won the first meeting 75-70 as a 2-point dog. 8* Central Florida

10* UT Arlington (3:00 ET): These teams just met Thursday. It was Texas State coming away with a 63-56 victory as 1.5-point road favorites. Now they’re favored by more at home, which is not a surprise at all, but it certainly opens up an opportunity to take the points with a revenge-minded dog. I certainly would have expected better shooting from UT Arlington at home than the 36.8% they delivered 48 hours ago. They also missed 19 of 25 three-point attempts. It’s been a bit of a rough shooting stretch recently for the Mavericks and as a result, they’ve gone 0-5 ATS L5 games. But they’ve won three of them straight up and I’m taking the points here.

UT Arlington has typically done a good job at the defensive end in league play, holding the opposition to 68 points or less in seven of the last eight games. While they’ve been an underdog prior to this, it’s never been by more than two points, at least to any Sun Belt opposition. This feels like a “buy low” spot.  You’ve got to think they are about to start heating up at the offensive end as they are averaging a solid 73.9 PPG for the year.

Texas State leads the Sun Belt West with an 8-3 SU record, but UT Arlington is just one back in the win column (7-6). The Bobcats have won and covered three straight despite scoring 63 or less in two of the games, so they’re playing excellent defense. But I don’t think the win Thursday necessitates a spread this high, even with the change in home court “advantage.” Texas State is just 5-3 SU at home including a couple loss to Louisiana in late January. With so many of the recent head to head meetings being close (five straight by 8 pts or less), taking the points here is a must. 10* UT Arlington

9* Over Western Carolina/Furman (2:00 ET): Both of these sides have gone Under in six straight games. Those respective six-game streaks include one head to head matchup, which Furman won 75-69 back on January 30th. Since then, the Paladins have actually dropped two of three and Wednesday saw them score a season-low 58 points in a loss to UNC Greensboro where they shot just 31.6% from the field. Look for them to rediscover the “shooting touch” though as today they are back at home where they are averaging 86.1 PPG! 

Western Carolina is at the bottom of the SoCon standings, but ironically the Catamounts are off a win here. They defeated VMI 74-72 in what was the team’s best single-game defensive effort in awhile. Still though, they’ve allowed 70 or more points in 15 of the last 16 games and are giving up 77.7 PPG for the season. On the road, that number jumps to 81.8 PPG. On the bright side, Western Carolina is averaging MORE points per game on the road (77.2) than at home.

In the first meeting, the total closed at 154. It’s several points lower here, opening up some real value. This looks like it will end up as the lowest O/U line for a Western Carolina game in some time, perhaps as far back as December 30th. Their games are averaging 153.9 PPG this season while Furman games average 148.3. The Paladins shoot a blistering 52.3% from the field at home as well. I fully expect them to score 80+ today and if that happens, it should make for an easy Over. 9* Over Western Carolina/Furman

8* Loyola Chicago (12:00 ET): Here’s a matchup I’ve been DYING to see all season in the Missouri Valley. Drake has just one loss this year and it came last weekend, 74-57 at Valparaiso. The Bulldogs have since bounced back with a convincing 80-59 triumph at the expense of Northern Iowa. That improved their record to not only 19-1 SU, but also 15-3 ATS. Both marks are obviously among the very best in the country. But make no mistake about it. Drake is NOT the best team in the MVC this season. That would be their opponents on Saturday.

Loyola Chicago, a name you probably recall from an epic Final Four run three years ago, leads the MVC with a 12-1 SU record. They are 17-3 SU overall and no slouch in the ATS department either at 12-5-1. The Ramblers were even more profitable prior to going 0-2 ATS vs. Evansville last week, though both games were still double digit wins at home. This is very much a Top 25 team (in the country) in my eyes and I expect them to show it Saturday. It speaks volumes that they are favored here.

Loyola sports a top eight defensive efficiency rating. They are allowing only 56.2 PPG on the year, which is #1 in the entire country! Yes, this is probably the best “mid-major” in America (assuming you’ve upgraded Gonzaga from that distinction at this point). They have won 10 straight, nine of those coming by double digits. Drake had numerous close calls prior to its blowout loss at Valpo last week. This is the first time all year that they will be an underdog, but again the oddsmakers have taken a definite “position” on this matchup and so am I. 8* Loyola Chicago

10* Detroit Mercy (9:00 ET): If you’ve been regularly betting Cleveland State this season, then “my hats off to you.” The Vikings are 14-3 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the country among teams that have played at least 13 games. They lead the Horizon League, which is a shocker as they were tabbed for 7th in the preseason poll. Per KenPom they’ve had the best “luck” in the entire country as five of their wins have been by three points or less. One of them was last Saturday vs. Oakland, 80-78. 

The Horizon League schedule calls for B2B games every weekend against the same opponent. Cleveland State has not lost the first game of any of these “doubleheaders” all season. But what is truly remarkable about the Vikings is how they have a negative scoring differential over the course of the season, despite being 14-5 SU! That’s largely owed to a pair of blowout losses: 85-49 at Wright State on Jan 16th and 101-46 at Ohio on Dec 6th. In that loss to Ohio, CSU was on the wrong end of a historic40-0 scoring run, spanning halftime, to set a NCAA record. They missed 17 consecutive shots at one point and went nearly 15 mins in the 2nd half w/o making a single basket! 

Detroit is the opponent Friday (and Saturday) and the Titans come in on their own 5-game ATS win streak. They’ve also won all five straight up. While only 8-8 SU on the year, the Titans can claim something Cleveland State can’t and that’s a positive YTD scoring differential. They are 6-1 ATS in road games and are coming off a 27-point win (over Purdue-Fort Wayne). This is a double revenge game. Bottom line is Cleveland State is “due” to lose. Take the points. 10* Detroit Mercy

10* UCLA (11:00 ET): UCLA just suffered its second loss in the last three games and it came in humiliating fashion at the hands of rival USC, 66-48 as 5-point dogs. It was also the fifth consecutive game the Bruins failed to cover. They also lost 73-72 at Stanford. Prior to that, they’d been 8-0 vs. the rest of the Pac 12. Reeling a bit (for the first time all season), I expect UCLA to come out strong Thursday night in Pullman. It was a 30-point win the first time they faced Washington State this year and that was less than a month ago. This number certainly appears to be a bit short.

Wazzu is off four straight road games. They went 2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS and lost the last one 68-66 at Oregon State. Very different from UCLA, the Cougars’ run in Pac 12 play did NOT get off to a good start as they went just 2-7 SU the L9. I wonder just how they’ll do here after playing 8 of their last 10 games on the road. The Cougars are not a particularly good shooting team and were held below 40% in Corvallis on Saturday. Other than a win over short-handed Oregon, the Cougs have not beaten any of the top teams in the Pac 12.

UCLA simply blitzed Wazzu in the first meeting, taking a 16-point halftime lead and shooting 54.1% for the game. I know Mick Cronin’s team has been playing a bit short-handed of late, but I see this as a great “buy low” opportunity. This may not be as lopsided as it ended up being in Westwood last month, but it doesn’t have to be with this short number. The Bruins are 8-1 ATS after a game where they scored 50 points or fewer. Their overall shooting is certainly set to improve. 10* UCLA 

8* Eastern Kentucky (9:00 ET): I was a little shocked by this line. Now, if you’ve been following along, then you know I’ve been targeting Belmont for awhile. At 14-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, the Bruins are the ONLY team in the country (besides Gonzaga and Baylor) to be 9-0 or better in conference play. But with a poor defensive efficiency rating (171st in the country), I’ve got my doubts. They’re coming off a four-game road trip here and easily could have lost two of the games (Austin Peay, Murray State). 

Eastern Kentucky probably isn’t the second best team in the OVC, but they are close. The Colonels are 15-4 SU overall and 9-3 in conference play. Two of those three conference losses occurred earlier in the month (Austin Peay, Murray State) and both were at home, But they’ve since bounced back with a 78-74 win at SIU Edwardsville on Monday. It was a double-digit advantage in the second half and they withstood some hot SIU Edwardsville shooting (50% from 3-pt range). Unlike most of the OVC, Eastern Kentucky has the capability to “trade points” with Belmont. 

In fact, the Colonels play at the fourth fastest tempo in the entire country and average 82.6 PPG. They are 3-1 ATS as a dog this season. This is their first time facing Belmont this season. The Bruins have won 17 in a row overall and have beaten Eastern Kentucky 10 straight times. But I don’t think they’re going to win out. Might they lose outright here? Not that confident, but I will take the points as EKU is 22-8-2 ATS its L32 games overall. 8* Eastern Kentucky

10* Mississippi (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes that Missouri, ranked #10 in the country, would be an underdog here. Of course, if you’ve been following my commentary this season, you’d already know that I feel Mizzou is among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. They barely crack my top 30 and according to KenPom, they have a top 11 “luck” rating. While the Tigers did produce arguably their most impressive win of the season, 68-65 over Alabama, I think all that does is produce an opportune time to fade. That’s what I’m doing here. 

Ole Miss is a top 20 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency, so they are no slouch. In their last two games, the Rebels have upset both Tennessee and Auburn, two teams that have already beaten Missouri this year. Ole Miss has actually beaten all three teams Mizzou has lost to. On January 19th, they went to Starkville and beat Miss State 64-46. Now Ole Miss did have to overcome a 14-point second half deficit to defeat Auburn in overtime. Devontae Shuler hit the GW basket with 0.2 seconds remaining. But color me impressed that the Rebels were able to win such a high-scoring game on the road. 

Both teams have had plenty of close calls recently with Ole Miss’ last two wins both coming by two points each and Missouri’s last three games all by five points or less, including an OT win of their own. But I once again point to the home team’s defensive capabilities as they are allowing just 59.7 PPG here in Oxford. Missouri missed 17 of its 20 three-point attempts vs. Alabama and nearly blew a 20+ point lead. The Tigers are just not an efficient team offensively (9th in the SEC) and they make just 29% of their 3PA on the road. Starter Javon Pickett may be out again as well. This is NOT an upset (though it will be considered one). 10* Mississippi

analysis soon

8* Furman (5:00 ET): These teams just met Monday and I had Furman, who went out and delivered a convincing 68-49 win as 4-point favorites. In light of that result, I’m a little surprised the Paladins are getting points in this immediate rematch, even with the game taking place in Greensboro. As discussed in my previous analysis, UNC Greensboro had really been beating up on the “lesser” SoCon (Southern Conference) teams in building up a seven-game win streak. Meanwhile, Furman had been underachieving. This will be the first time since Dec 15th (at Alabama) that they are getting points! 

There was no underachieving Monday as the Paladins went out and built a double-digit halftime lead and rolled from there. What was most impressive (to me) is that they were able to win convincingly, despite not being at their offensive best. This is a team that averages an impressive 81.2 PPG for the year and they weren’t close to that Monday. They did however “tighten the screws” defensively, holding UNC Greensboro to just 29.0% shooting for the game, including 2 of 18 on three-point attempts. 

While you should expect UNC Greensboro to shoot better tonight at home, they are not a particularly great shooting team. In fact, the Spartans are making only 28.9% of their 3PA for the season and less than 42% of their shots overall. That was a major factor in me taking Furman in the last game and I see no reason to expect differently this evening. UNC Greensboro is only 5-4 SU at home this season, including outright losses to East Tennessee State and Wofford. Furman has four double digit scorers and is simply the better team here. 8* Furman

8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech (9:00 ET): When these teams met on January 25th, they combined for 175 total points in an 88-87 WVU win. When I say “that’s a little bit shocking,” I’m definitely not referring to the fact the Mountaineers were able to pull out a win in Morgantown. No, it was shocking that they combined for that many points. Texas Tech is always considered one of the premier defensive teams in the entire country and this season has been no different as they are allowing just 61.7 points per game. Here at home, that number drops down to 56.5. So I expect this sequel to feature a lot less scoring than the “original.” 

In that first meeting, WVU shot a blistering 57.7% overall from the field, including 12 of 19 on three-pointers. Again, that just doesn’t happen when you’re facing Texas Tech. It’s not like WVU is a great shooting team. They make only 42.9% for the year. The 12 made threes were way more than their season average of 7.3 per game. With the change in home court advantage, expect different results this time as TT is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.9% from behind the arc in Lubbock.

West Virginia had another hot shooting game Saturday as they beat Kansas 91-79. That was their fourth straight game to go Over the total, a streak which began with the win over Texas Tech. But I remain adamant that the Mountaineers were cool off here. The Red Raiders also shot 50% from three-point range in their last game, but that was against a lousy Kansas State squad. They’ve had a couple sub-36.0% shooting efforts recently. It takes some “chutzpah” to expect 40 less points this time around, but I’ll do it. 8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech

10* Butler (9:00 ET): St. John’s has won six straight. They’ve covered eight in a row. Those streaks include outright wins over UConn and Villanova, who were ranked #23 and #3 respectively at the time of the upsets. The Red Storm have now won four straight on the road after prevailing at Providence Saturday. The 92-81 win was their third consecutive as a dog and the third time they went over 80 points in this win streak, although the other two occasions were against DePaul and Utah Valley State.

Butler is not having its best season. The Bulldogs are just 6-10 SU on the year, although they did just snap a three-game losing skid on Saturday with a 68-58 win and cover (were -5.5) over DePaul. It was the second consecutive game that they covered as they closed +4.5 in a 70-67 loss at Marquette exactly one week ago. I took them there, noting this was now a deeper team with East Tennessee State transfer Bo Hodges being granted eligibility. Christian David also made his debut two weeks ago vs. Xavier and starter Aaron Thompson missed five games earlier in the year. 

Butler has a win over Creighton, so it’s not as if they are incapable of beating quality teams. They have certainly made a habit of beating St. John’s here at Hinkle Fieldhouse. They are 6-0 SU/ATS the L6 times hosting the Johnnies. Last year was a 22-point win here. This is a revenge game after Butler lost by 12 (69-57) in MSG last month. The Red Storm don’t defend as well on the road, giving up 79.9 PPG. They are due for a “slip-up.” 10* Butler

10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): San Jose State has improbably won three in a row, all as underdogs. For much of this season, the Spartans have been one of the absolute worst teams in the country. I should point out that the three wins came against New Mexico and Air Force, who are a combined 3-22 SU in conference play. There is no doubt that the SJSU win streak is going to come to an end tonight at San Diego State, but is this massive pointspread justified? I think so! 

San Diego State has won four in a row, all by at least 27 points. They swept Air Force and Wyoming and are now 13-4 SU on the season. They are trying to track down the top three teams in the MWC (Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State) and have a few games in hand. There’s a good chance the Aztecs will be on an eight-game win streak by the time they head to Boise to conclude the regular season. They’ve been off for more than a week as last week’s games vs. New Mexico were postponed, so they should be itching to get back on the court here.

Making the task tougher for San Jose State here is the possibility that leading scorer Richard Washington may miss the game. Washington isn’t just the team’s leading scorer, he leads the entire MWC at 20.7 PPG. The Spartans did win without him against Air Force, but this is obviously a much taller order. Since January 22nd, San Diego State is 1st in the country in both points per game (93.5) and scoring differential (+31.5 per game). They’ve scored 87 or more in four straight games for the first time since 1971. San Jose State is among the very worst teams in the country defensively (335th in efficiency), not to mention last in the MWC in both PPG allowed and rebounding margin. 10* San Diego State

8* Furman (5:00 ET): UNC Greensboro has won 7 straight and now leads the SoCon (Southern Conference) by percentage points over preseason favorite Wofford. Any time a team can put together a win streak of this length, you’ve got to “tip your cap.” However, in this instance, it’s hard to look past the fact the Spartans have really been beating up on the bottom of the conference. All seven victories have been at the expense of the bottom six with four of them coming against the bottom three. 

Now Furman has been trending in the opposite direction of late as they’ve lost three of their four games. They are 0-4 ATS as well. Two of the three losses were on the road though and the one at home was against Wofford. That was on Saturday and the Paladins really faltered down the stretch in their first home loss of the season. Leading scorer Mike Bothwell had just two points in the game and was 0 for 4 from three-point range. Furman led at the half and by 9 with just over 10 minutes to go. But Wofford outscored them 20-13 over the final six minutes to “steal” the win. 

Furman averages 81.9 PPG with a 49.1 FG%, so the kind of shooting we saw Saturday was uncharacteristic to say the least. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro was only tied at the half with The Citadel their last time out (Wednesday) and actually got outrebounded for the game. The Spartans also shot much better in that game than they do normally. Their season-long FG% is only 42.6% and they really struggle from three-point range (29.3%). I think this is a great spot to step in and take Furman laying a short number at home. 8* Furman

10* Boise State (4:00 ET): Boise State fell 74-72 Thursday night in Reno. They’ve now dropped two of three after winning 13 straight and now trail Utah State by a half-game in the race for 1st in the Mountain West. The Broncos certainly had their chances to win Thursday. They missed the potential game-winning three in the closing seconds after giving up the go-ahead basket with just seconds left. Then there’s the fact they also led at halftime. They’ve now lost five straight times at Nevada. But they get an immediate shot at revenge and I’m laying the points in this one. 

Both teams have been quite successful at the betting window this season. Boise State is 10-5-1 ATS. Nevada is 14-5 ATS, among the most profitable teams in the entire country. The Wolf Pack are now 4-0 ATS taking points after winning outright as 5-points dogs the other night. Boise State has been favored in every conference game so far, so a 7-4-1 ATS record there is pretty impressive. Six of their first seven MWC wins were by double digits.

Then there is a fact that the Broncos are 13-3 ATS coming off a loss the last few seasons. When they were blown out at Colorado State 78-56 last Wednesday, they bounced back two days later with a dominant win of their own, 85-77. Their only other loss this season was the opener at Houston, a legit Top 10 team. From that, the Broncos responded with 31-point victory their next time out. It won’t be that easy here, but I expect them to come through with a win that’s larger than the spread. This is a team that’s allowing only 42.1% shooting for the season. Nevada won’t shoot 52.6% again. 10* Boise State

10* Saint Louis (2:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the entire COUNTRY has been more adversely affected by COVID-19 than the Saint Louis Billikens. The preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10 were in the top 25 of my own power ratings when their season was paused around Christmas time. Unfortunately, the Billikens have gone 0-2 SU since returning to the court, losing outright to Dayton and La Salle over the L10 days. They’ve gotten only 10 games in all season and now must face arguably the hottest team in the A-10, St. Bonaventure, who has won seven in a row.

I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on Saint Louis. While adjustments obviously needed to be made by the linesmakers in the wake of the B2B upsets, this looks like a classic “overadjustment” to me. The Billikens had just four days of practice after not playing for 33 days when they took on Dayton. Then they had a game vs. Richmond postponed just minutes before the scheduled tipoff. Wednesday’s loss at La Salle was a genuine shocker (the Billikens were favored by 12) as they struggled again from three-point range. That’s been the problem in the two games as they are shooting a woeful 7 of 32 from behind the arc.

With more practice time and two games under their belt, you have to figure St. Louis’ shooting is destined to improve. They actually shot 51.8% overall against Dayton; it was just the three-point line that was the problem. Prior to the pause, this has been an excellent three-point shooting team (still 37.4% for the season). At the same time, the Bonnies aren’t going to shoot 61.4% again like they did vs George Mason (at home) last week. The A-10 leaders have been beating up on the bottom of the league while St. Louis has been out of the picture. The Bonnies’ road record could easily be 1-3 SU. 10* Saint Louis

analysis soon

8* Cal Baptist (9:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned to see this line so high. My own power ratings suggest a much tighter spread is appropriate. The game will take place in Las Cruces, the first time NMSU has gotten to play on their home floor since COVID restrictions were lifted in the state. But home court advantage is still not enough to justify the Aggies laying so many points. They have just six games under their belt this season and only three since the New Year. They were swept last weekend at Grand Canyon.

Cal Baptist is coming off a disheartening home loss to Dixie State their last time out. The Lancers were 9.5-point favorites for that one, but fell 79-75 as 9.5-point chalk. That loss snapped a 5-game win streak. The Lancers led by as many as 7 points in the second half, so it’s a game they could have won. While they’ve yet to win on the road this season (0-3), two of three losses have come by single digits. One was against USC in the season opener. Another was by only four points at Utah Valley State. They are 15-7 ATS L22 as an underdog.

New Mexico State has not beaten a single D-I foe this season, so I have no unearthly idea why they’d be favored by so many points here. Their three wins have come against Western New Mexico, Benedictine (AZ) and Arizona Christian. They are 0-3 otherwise, though all those games were on the road. Still, the Aggies scored just 53 points in their last game and can’t possibly be trusted to cover a spread like this. They shot just 36.5% from the field on Saturday and were down by as many as 17. This spread simply looks to be way off. 8* Cal Baptist

8* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): Yes, I’m going to fade Belmont again. This will be the third straight time as the Bruins’ unbeaten run through the OVC has come very close to ending each of their last two times out. I cashed both Austin Peay and Murray State in the last week vs. Belmont, games the Bruins easily could have lost outright. They beat Austin Peay by five and Murray State by one. Now they are laying big points to Tony Romo’s alma mater in what is their third straight road game. 

While you should take the points, this third OVC play in this report has the potential to be a major upset. Remember that I’ve already cashed Miami over Duke and East Carolina over Houston this week, both were double digit dogs that took the game outright. Belmont (12-0 vs OVC) has the most conference wins without a loss in the country and is certainly “due” to drop a game after the narrow escapes we’ve seen recently. They trailed at the half in each of those L2 games. 

Eastern Illinois ended a LONG losing streak (8 games) with a 70-61 win over SIU Edwardsville on Tuesday. Five of those eight losses came as a favorite, so the Panthers have definitely underachieved this year. They were actually 0-8 ATS in those eight SU losses! But this is the most points they’ll get all season (in conference play) and it’s at home. Talk about motivation - they’ve lost eight straight times to Belmont. But six of those were on the road. This is a team that doesn’t get blown out often. 8* Eastern Illinois

8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Like I said in the Murray State writeup, I’m in love with this OVC card tonight! In addition to cashing Murray State against Belmont as my 10* Game of the Month on Saturday, Austin Peay also cashed a winning ticket (for me) at Belmont’s expense recently. They too played the Bruins right down to the wire, only to come up just short of ending Belmont’s unbeaten OVC run. That game, which was on Thursday, saw the Governors lose by only five points. They’ve since beaten Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville both by 15. 

Tonight, the Governors are at Eastern Kentucky, who is the second place team in the OVC. EKU is 14-2 overall and won nine straight. They’re also a perfect 8-0 SU at home. But shades of Morehead State (who I’m also fading tonight), the Colonials have really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. Another similarity to that Morehead State fade is that this is a revenge game. Austin Peay lost the first time, by five at home, as a 4.5-point favorite. 

Eastern Kentucky was actually a dog at Jacksonville State over the weekend, which should tell you what the oddsmakers really think of them. They won, but by only four points, their third win by five or less in the past six games. Based on the early line movement, it certainly appears as if Austin Peay is getting some love from sharp bettors and they’ll get my love as well considering they are 3-1 ATS as a dog. EKU is due to lose. 8* Austin Peay

8* Murray State (7:00 ET): I’m in LOVE with the Ohio Valley Conference slate tonight! All three plays in this report come from the OVC, which I’ve been paying close attention to in recent weeks. Just last Saturday, Murray State was my 10* NCAAB Game of the Month as they covered the spread vs. unbeaten (in conference play) Belmont. Just 48 hours later, the Racers shook off that one-point loss by downing SE Missouri State 77-60 on the road. While this is now their third game in less than a week, we are getting a TON of value considering Murray State was a 13-point favorite when they hosted Morehead State earlier this season.

Now that first meeting is something Murray State would like to forget as they lost outright as 13-point chalk, 61-56. It was a dreadful shooting night for both teams, but what was truly remarkable is the Racers shooting just 13 of 31 on two-point attempts! Since that loss, the offense has gotten back on track. They’ve scored at least 71 in six straight games and are now 3-0 ATS in the last three. 

Morehead State has been a covering machine with seven straight ATS victories. They’ve also won nine in a row straight up. The OVC is shaping up to be a three-team race with them and Eastern Kentucky trying to track down Belmont. But, as is evident by this spread, the standings aren’t really representative of the power rankings. Other than the win over Murray State, Morehead has really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. If Murray State was a 13-point favorite the first time around, they should be favored by a lot more in the rematch. Oddsmakers have overadjusted. 8* Murray State

8* LSU (7:00 ET): This is a giant revenge game for the Bayou Bengals, who lost by 30 (at home!) to Alabama last month. As you can guess from the score (105-75), nothing went right for them that night in Baton Rouge. The tailspin began right away with Alabama opening the game on a 23-4 run. The margin grew to 31 before halftime and never dropped below 26 in the 2H. The Crimson Tide set a SEC record in that game with 23 made three-pointers. Quite obviously, it can’t possibly be THAT ugly for LSU tonight.

Despite what happened to them in the first meeting, LSU is a good team. They come in at 11-5 SU and could have beaten #13 Texas Tech on Saturday. They lost that game by only five points and had a seven-point lead with just over a minute to go. It was the Tigers’ third loss in four games, which goes back to the debacle vs. Bama, so it’s getting to be “desperation time” for Will Wade’s team. Considering they’ve only been beaten twice by more than five points this year, I’ll be taking the points. 

Alabama is also off a loss in the Big 12-SEC Challenge, theirs coming here in Tuscaloosa against an Oklahoma team that was playing without two starters, one of which was Austin Reaves (leading scorer). That snapped a 10-game win streak for the Tide, who are still unbeaten in SEC games (9-0 SU). Only two other teams in the country (Baylor, Belmont) are 9-0 or better in conference play and I can’t see the Tide running the table in the SEC. LSU’s top four scorers were all held below their season averages (in points) the first time around. This time they make a game of it. 8* LSU

8* Kentucky (7:00 ET): UK missed its opportunity to face #6 Texas over the weekend, which may have been for the best seeing as how I don’t think that’s a game they would have won. COVID-19 not only cancelled the Texas game, but pushed this one vs. Missouri back a day. This has obviously not been a typical season in Lexington as the Wildcats are just 5-10 SU and barring some unforeseen run in the SEC Tournament, they will NOT be a participant in March Madness. However, I do see them playing “spoiler” in this spot. 

Missouri is the team that my power rankings differ from the pollsters the most on. The Tigers come into this game ranked #16 in the country, but my power ratings have them just inside the Top 40. The KenPom ratings, which I think are very useful, agree with me. Cuonzo Martin’s team really pulled a “rabbit out of the hat” on Saturday, coming back from a late 12-point deficit to beat TCU in overtime, 102-98. They never came close to covering the 10-point spread though. 

This is the first of two big games in Columbia this week as Mizzou will also host Alabama on Saturday. Might they actually look past UK then? Bottom line is I expect the Tigers to start dropping some games. They are 2-6 ATS after allowing 80+ points and 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Kentucky is 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The last time we saw Coach Cal, his team was leading at Alabama with less than five minutes remaining. They imploded down the stretch and failed to cover the 7-point spread, but I think they get the money here. Take the points. 8* Kentucky

8* East Carolina (6:00 ET): #5 Houston has undoubtedly been red hot as of late. They went 8-0 in January with the last six wins all coming by 17 points or greater. They’ve covered four straight times. Sunday saw them decimate SMU, 70-48, as a 9.5-point home favorite. You’ll notice that 17-point benchmark is basically what the oddsmakers are looking for tonight as the Cougars, now ranked #5 in the country, travel to face East Carolina. As good a team as this is, it’s obviously not easy to keep winning games by such a large margin. So I’ll be taking the points in this one. 

East Carolina’s January went a lot differently than Houston’s. The Pirates were 0-5 SU/ATS last month while having to deal with a two-week pause due to COVID. Their last win came all the way back on December 22nd against Tulane. Conference play has gone much differently than non-conference play did for ECU. While they’ve beaten all six non-conf opponents this year, they are just 1-6 SU vs. the rest of the American. However, it should be pointed out that four of the five losses in January were by single digits. They were tied 65-65 with Tulsa (only team to beat Houston this year) here on Saturday, only to get caught on the wrong end of a 12-3 run to end the game. 

It’s not as if I expect East Carolina to win this game. But I do think they’ll keep it closer than what the oddsmakers are thinking. The Pirates are a solid 6-3 SU at home this season with just one bad loss (to Memphis). Houston doesn’t play for another week after this game, so they may be looking forward to the break and not be fully focused. They are probably due for an “off-game” anyway. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they allowed less than 50 points. East Carolina has covered five straight home games vs. teams with a winning road record. 8* East Carolina

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): Illinois is back where it “belongs,” ranked #12 in the country. Truthfully, my power ratings say they should be ranked even higher. But tonight they happen to be facing a team that I feel is also underrated by the pollsters, that being Indiana. With a 9-7 SU record, IU isn’t “wowing” anyone right now. But consider that they will come into this game well-rested (haven’t played in over a week!) and also won by 12 at Iowa last month. That’s more impressive than the Fighting Illini beating the Hawkeyes by just five points at home last Friday. 

You can probably guess the reason for Indiana’s sabbatical from the court. They were supposed to face #4 Michigan on Saturday, but the Wolverines had COVID issues. Avoiding a trip to face a top four opponent before playing this game is a big break for the Hoosiers. Now they’ve actually lost their last two games here in Bloomington (both as favorites), but tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been a home dog all season. They’ve gone 4-1 ATS when getting points on the road, so you’ve gotta like their chances of pulling this one out, even if Galloway and Franklin can’t go. 

This is a revenge game as well. The Hoosiers lost in Champaign-Urbana back on December 26th by a score of 69-60. That was actually the one time they failed to cover when getting points (were +6.5). They shot poorly and were outrebounded 40-28. Generally, neither shooting nor rebounding have been problems for the Hoosiers. That win over Iowa on Friday was Illinois’ first over a team currently in the Top 25. Indiana may not be ranked, but my power ratings call them a top 25 team in the country. Take the points. 10* Indiana

8* Texas (7:00 ET): If there ever was a time for #2 Baylor (16-0 SU) to drop a game, it would be here in Austin. The Bears just played a tough opponent (Auburn) Saturday night while Texas had the weekend off. The Longhorns were going to face Kentucky, but COVID took care of that matchup (issue was obviously on the UK side). So now the Longhorns come in well-rested for their biggest game of the season and you know motivation will be through the roof. They are 4-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. 

Texas is just seven points away from being unbeaten itself. That’s the total number of points their three losses have been by with none of the margins being greater than four. The last time they took the court was exactly one week ago and they fell 80-79 to red-hot Oklahoma here in Austin. That they were able to almost win despite not having HC Shaka Smart, two starters and one key reserve (all out due to COVID) was pretty impressive. For the final possession, the Longhorns had just five scholarship players available as three more guys fouled out during the course of the game! Everyone, including Smart, is expected to be back tonight. 

Yes, I’m fully aware of how good Baylor is. But Texas is a top 10 team playing at home. Not only were there extenuating factors working against them in the loss to OU, but in a 79-77 loss to Texas Tech on 1/13, they blew a 10-point halftime lead. They led that game most of the way. It’s pretty shocking that all three of the Longhorns losses have occurred at home, but again those were all by razor thin margins and to teams ranked in the Top 15. Tonight is the most points they’ll get in any game all season. It’s a good value. They are rested. They easily could be undefeated. They can beat Baylor. Take the points. 8* Texas

8* Butler (5:00 ET): Both Butler and Marquette have been pretty cold of late. Butler has lost its last two games and four of its last six. Marquette has lost three in a row and seven of 10 . Even worse is that the Golden Eagles are 1-9 ATS in those 10 games and 0-4 the L4. So laying points with them right now seems like a BAD idea. They are just 3-7 ATS as chalk this season.

Butler couldn’t hit water from a boat in their last game as they shot just 34.3% against Xavier, 68-55 loss as two-point favorites. The Bulldogs REALLY struggled from behind the three-point arc where they missed 20 of 25 attempts. That’s well below their season average, obviously. Three things to keep in mind here, however. One is they’re going to shoot better tonight. Two, they own a win over Creighton. Three, Christian David and Bo Hodges are now both playing. Each made their season debut vs. Xavier and while it didn’t help there, there’s no denying the Bulldogs are now a better and deeper team. Hodgers is a transfer from East Tennessee State. 

Marquette is down a player, Justin Lewis, as he injured his ankle in practice Saturday. While “just” a reserve, Lewis is a key frontcourt contributor. Without Lewis, the Golden Eagles lost by two to St. John’s on Sunday. But the game was really not that close as they trailed by 15 at halftime. Butler has had one extra day off (compared to Marquette) between games and will certainly be motivated to end an 0-4 ATS run in this rivalry. Take the points. 8* Butler

10* Central Florida (8:00 ET): Memphis seems to have gone from “underachieving” to “a little bit overrated” in a hurry. That’s due to a 4-game ATS win streak, but I think it’s important to remember what preceded that, a 7-game ATS LOSING streak. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had a LOT of close calls this season, the most recent coming last week at SMU where they lost 67-65 (but did cover as 4-point dogs). This is the most points the Tigers have had to lay in over a month and I think the spread is too high. 

UCF is off its own narrow defeat, theirs coming Saturday at Wichita State by a score of 93-88. As you may have guessed from the final score, that game went to overtime. It was the sixth loss in the last seven games for the Golden Knights, who certainly didn’t help themselves by turning it over 22 times against the Shockers. It was a game they led at halftime and just the second time all year they lost when scoring at least 61 points. The last two games have seen dramatic improvement on the offensive end for UCF and I’m expecting a better showing than the oddsmakers are for tonight’s game. 

A couple weeks ago, I laid a short number with Memphis here at home and they blew out Wichita State 72-52. But I’ve seen too many close games from the Tigers to want to lay this many points. Seven of their last nine games have been decided by seven points or less. Four of those have been SU losses. I know UCF is a bit “offensively challenged,” but they’ve topped 70 in regulation each of the L2 games. They led Wichita State by eight with less than four minutes to go on Saturday. Meanwhile, Memphis trailed SMU by as many as 16 on Thursday. 10* Central Florida

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): It has NOT been a good run for Miami of late as they’ve dropped four in a row - both SU and ATS. Short-handed, they lost 66-54 at Wake Forest on Saturday, which was the second time in the last three games they lost as a favorite. Things will not be any easier tonight when they host a suddenly surging Duke team that’s won B2B games. But because the Blue Devils are among the most “public sides” in the sport, we’re able to get a good number in this nationally televised contest and I’m taking the points as this number has simply grown too large. 

Duke’s B2B wins have come against Georgia Tech and Clemson. Against the former, they were tied with just 2:33 remaining before pulling away via the charity stripe. The Clemson win on Saturday may have been the best the Blue Devils have looked all season. They won 79-53 after jumping out to a big lead and never looking back. But both of these recent wins were in Durham. The Blue Devils still have zero wins this season against the Top 25 and are 1-3 SU on the road. I think the idea of them being ranked is somewhat ludicrous. 

Yes, Miami is really short-handed right now and has had horrible luck against Duke in recent years. But I expect Jim Larranaga’s team to be “up” for this one. I mentioned earlier that the Hurricanes have lost four straight. Well, three of those losses were on the road. Duke is still a young team and I’ve been on the record calling them “overrated” even before the loss to Michigan State back in November. I just don’t think this should be a double digit spread. 8* Miami FL

8* Georgia Tech (2:00 ET): Louisville is ranked #25 in the country as of this writing, but the Cardinals are likely to drop out of the new poll (when it comes out later today) due to losing 54-50 at Clemson last week. That was the third loss they’ve suffered over the course of the previous four games, a stretch which includes their lone home loss of 2020-21, 78-65 at the hands of Florida State. They did defeat Duke here last Saturday, but by just five points. That’s one of three Cardinals’ wins by five points or less since Christmas, the difference between a 6-3 record in their L9 games and a much more mediocre mark. 

Georgia Tech just beat Florida State, albeit in Atlanta, 76-65 on Saturday. That was the Yellow Jackets’ sixth win in the last eight games and something to keep in mind is that both losses are games they easily could have won. GT led Virginia by as many as 11 points on 1/23 before losing 64-62 in overtime. The next game saw them in front of Duke late, but they lost that one (also on the road), 75-68. Had the Jackets held on in either game, we might be talking about them replacing L’ville in the Top 25 today. Beating a team like Florida State is not easy and GT did it by holding the Seminoles to their lowest point total of the season. 

The Yellow Jackets also come in averaging 77.7 PPG themselves. They shot 50% from the field in the second half Saturday. Alongside FSU, Georgia Tech is top two in the ACC in both three-point shooting and overall field goal percentage. Considering that L’ville only made 31.6% of its shot attempts against Clemson, you’ve got to like the Yellow Jackets’ chances defensively in this one, especially considering they just held the ACC’s #1 scoring team to almost 15 pts below its season average. Georgia Tech is 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, so I’ll gladly take the points here. 8* Ga Tech

10* Illinois State (3:00 ET): There are three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. You’re more than likely well aware of two of them, Gonzaga and Baylor, as those are the top two ranked teams in the country. But the other is Drake, a team whose season was interrupted for a full three weeks because of COVID-19. The Bulldogs are 15-0 after returning to the court earlier this week and winning a couple close games at Missouri State. Perhaps most impressive of all is that they are also 13-0 ATS this season!

However, I personally don’t think Drake is even the best team in the Missouri Valley. (That would be Loyola IL, who they will face in a couple of weeks). When they returned to the court Tuesday (following a 22-day layoff), the Bulldogs looked a little shaky as they trailed Missouri State by 15 at halftime and it certainly appeared their unbeaten run was headed for its demise. But they rallied to win there (outscored Missouri State 42-20 in 2H) and then won again by five the following night. Today marks the largest spread for any Drake game this season, with the exception of Chicago State, who was arguably the worst team in all of College Basketball before cancelling its season. 

Illinois State should be getting a lot more respect from the oddsmakers than this. While only 5-10 SU on the year, most of the Redbirds’ losses have been close, the exceptions being the pair against Loyola. They just lost two at home to Valparaiso, both of which saw them come in as the slight favorite. The second of those two games saw them ahead late, but they were outscored 7-2 in the final 99 seconds and lost 70-66. It certainly didn’t help that their second leading scorer (Josiah Strong) scored only two points the entire game. While Drake is likely to win this game straight up and thus remain unbeaten, their ATS win streak is certainly long overdue to end. 10* Illinois State

10* Murray State (8:30 ET): With Winthrop’s loss last night, there is now only one team in College Basketball that is 10-0 or better in conference play. That would be Belmont. The Bruins are 11-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, but had a very close call Thursday at Austin Peay, whom they defeated only by an 81-76 margin. In a game with 26 lead changes and 12 ties, I shouldn’t have had to sweat the cover with Austin Peay, but that’s what ended up happening. Still, I did get the ATS win and I’m thinking tonight will be an outright win on Murray State, who is MUCH better than their 7-7 overall record. 

This will be only the third time Belmont has had to play B2B road games. They did not cover in either of the first two instances. Those games were against Jacksonville State (won by 7) and Evansville (won by 9). While it’s a much shorter number here, that’s because Murray State is 6-2 at home this season and averaging 88.6 PPG. They are one of the few teams in the OVC that I feel can “trade buckets” with the Bruins. Murray State’s two home losses are by a combined eight points. The Racers come into this evening off a very strong effort, a 73-53 blowout of Tennessee Tech, which was here in Murray. 

This is a revenge game for Murray State as they lost down in Nashville 68-55 back on December 30th. They only trailed by one at halftime, holding Belmont to a season-low 26 first half points. The difference in that game was second chance points and turnovers. I expect Murray State to play a “cleaner” game now that they’re at home. They shoot a blistering 54.3% here and also defend the 3-point line very well (opponents hitting just 27.4% for the year). Take the points, but I’m expecting the outright upset. 10* Murray State

8* Utah (2:30 ET): I certainly respect Colorado. In fact, my own power ratings say this should be a Top 25 team. I took them the first time they faced Utah and while that ended up being a 65-58 victory on January 11th, it was not easy for the Buffaloes. They trailed by 10 at the half before storming back for their first win in Salt Lake City since the 2011-12 season. Six made free throws in the final minute ensured they’d cover that day (as short 2.5-pt favorites), but covering this larger spread at home may prove more problematic.

The Buffaloes have now won six of their last seven to get to 13-4 SU overall, including 7-3 in Pac 12 play. I look at this league as a four-team race with them, UCLA, USC and Oregon. But as much as I admire what’s going on in Boulder right now, the team has been “playing with fire” a bit. The earlier game vs. Utah isn’t the only time they’ve come from behind after being down big at halftime. In last week’s 70-59 win at Washington State, they trailed by as many as 18 points. Another win over Wazzu (on Wednesday) saw them catch a break as the Cougars were playing without their leading scorer. 

Colorado’s only loss in the L7 games came as a sizable favorite (-14.5) against (arguably) the worst team in the Pac 12, Washington. So it would be foolish to say Utah doesn’t have a chance to win this game straight up. After all, they led Colorado by double digits in the first meeting. That was actually the second consecutive game where the Utes blew a DD halftime lead and lost. Overall, they’ve dropped six of eight, but have had the halftime lead in four of those six losses, three times by double digits! They only lost by two at UCLA as well. I see the Utes being VERY motivated by the revenge factor here. 8* Utah

10* Hawaii (11:59 PM ET): UC Irvine has been hot of late, winning six straight to get to 7-4 SU on the season. Playing in the Big West, those wins have hardly been against “world-beaters.” The last two wins were against last place Cal Poly and while the defensive numbers from those games look great (just 93 total points allowed on less than 33% shooting), the Mustangs are one of the most offensively challenged teams in the entire country. UC Irvine hasn’t been reliable on the road (1-4 SU) and Honolulu is arguably the toughest trip to make in the conference. I’m taking the points here. 

Hawaii is off a solid 76-53 win at Cal State Fullerton last Saturday. That was revenge for an 83-67 loss the night prior. The Warriors have solid rebounding and play good defense, a combination I certainly like to see when taking a team. They just held CS Fullerton to 4 of 19 shooting from three-point range. That they were able to win so convincingly on the road, despite making just four foul shots, is pretty impressive, The Warriors’ schedule has certainly been impacted by COVID, but they’ve now played six games the last three weeks, so they should be in better “rhythm.” 

Hawaii did lose its last two home games, both to Cal State Bakersfield, so they should be really motivated for a home win tonight. As I mentioned earlier, Cal Irvine has been shaky on the road. This will be just the second away game since X-Mas for them. They’ve averaged just 62.6 points in those five previous road games. Also, tonight marks just the third time in 12 games that the Anteaters have been favored. They’ve definitely overachieved. Hawaii was actually favored in each of its last four games. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs this season. 10* Hawaii

8* Florida International (6:00 ET): FIU started the season 8-3, but all of a sudden has lost five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’ve been without their second leading scorer, Radshad Davis (13.3 PPG), for the last three games. That partially explains the recent slide, but the real culprit has been the Panthers’ complete lack of defense as they’ve allowed 79 or more points in each of the L4 games. The Charlotte team they’ll face tonight is offensively challenged, a good sign, and I’m hopeful Davis will return. Even if he doesn’t, still take the points as this number is way too high. 

Charlotte is a team I’ve played against previously. In fact, it was exactly two weeks ago when they hosted UAB. The 49ers ended up losing that game in humiliating fashion, 61-37, as 2-point home underdogs. They’ve won two of three since then, avenging the UAB defeat and beating FAU last Saturday 74-71. However, this is a team that should feel pretty lucky to be .500 (7-7 SU) on the season. Four of its wins have been by four points or less. They’ve lost to a non-DI opponent (Belmont Abbey) and have played three overtime games this month. 

I understand that FIU has been struggling of late, but this line should not be so high. These teams’ play at vastly different tempos with FIU ranking 20th in number of possessions per game while Charlotte is 328th. That’s something to watch as this game unfolds. If FIU can push the tempo, then things will go in their favor. I don’t think they are as bad as they’ve looked these L5 games and with Charlotte owning just three wins by more than four points this year, who would want to lay points with them? They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS as chalk this season. Take the points. 8* Florida International

8* New Mexico (11:00 ET): Fresno State is a team I’ve targeted previously and as a favorite, they become a really attractive fade. The last time they took the court was eight days ago vs. Boise State. I took Boise State -14.5 and that was a winning bet despite the fact Fresno State had the halftime lead. (The game ended up 73-51). They were supposed to play Boise State again on Friday, but that game got postponed. While the Bulldogs have been better at home this year, there’s a reason for that (weak opponents). I don’t think you can trust this team laying this many points (unless they’re playing San Jose State). 

Four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They swept two home games against San Jose State, covering as 14-point favorites both times. Since then, they’ve lost three in a row, all on the road. Given a 3-6 ATS record in conference play, I just don’t know why you’d want to lay points with this team right now. 

Now truthfully New Mexico hasn’t been very good either as they are actually tied for last in the Mountain West after splitting with San Jose State last weekend. They lost the second game as 9.5-point favorites, a result they will desperately want to atone for here. Remember that the Lobos haven’t been allowed to play any actual home games this season. Being on the road again won’t bother them. Take the points. 8* New Mexico

10* Austin Peay (9:00 ET): There are only two teams in the country that are 10-0 or better in conference play and one of them is Belmont in the Ohio Valley (the other is Winthrop in the Big South). Belmont has won 13 in a row overall since tasting its lone defeat this season, which was a bit of a shocker as they were 17.5-point favorites at home over Samford when they fell 96-83 on December 5th. Coming off a dominating win over SIU Edwardsville, the Bruins now head to Austin Peay for what will be one of their toughest games during the entire OVC slate.

Austin Peay may have been caught “looking ahead” to this one as they were upset by Jacksonville State on Saturday, 76-70 as a four-point favorite. They ended the game on the wrong end of a 9-0 run. Though they shot the ball well (52.9%), for a second straight game their defense was shockingly poor. They allowed Jacksonville State to shoot 63.3% from the field, an even higher percentage than what Tennessee Tech (56.1%) last Thursday. The Governors better shore that defense up quickly as they are now facing a team that just scored 114 points in its last game.

My view is that Austin Peay is ready for this one and will be much better defensively. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were in the last two games. Austin Peay’s last seven games have all been decided by nine points or less with the three losses all coming by six points or less. So this is a team that doesn’t get blown out very often. They are 7-1 straight up when playing with three or more days rest and a perfect 4-0 SU off a loss. Belmont has been really impressive, but this is their toughest test to date. Take the points. 10* Austin Peay

10* Notre Dame (7:00 ET): Virginia Tech already was a team I felt didn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25, now they’ve had to suspend arguably their best player for the foreseeable future. So the Hokies are a very logical fade Wednesday night when they travel to South Bend and face Notre Dame. They just lost by 18 in Syracuse Saturday and that was with starting guard Tyrece Radford (the suspended player in question) in the lineup. This will be their third straight game on the road as well. 

Notre Dame got me on Sunday by going to Coral Gables and beating Miami 73-59. They played a somewhat “sloppy” game (16 turnovers), but shot the ball very well and dominated the Hurricanes on the glass. The Fighting Irish finished the game at 53.8% from the field, including 10 of 18 on three-pointers. They also held a 37-28 rebounding advantage. That was a pretty impressive ACC road win and the Irish’s second win in a row overall. They defeated Boston College 80-70 here at home in their previous game.

It can’t be understated what losing Radford means to Va Tech. He is second on the team in both scoring and rebounding and was the “best player on the court” (Coach K’s words) when the Hokies beat Duke earlier this month. My power ratings are quite bearish on Va Tech, still having them outside the Top 40. They’ve lost two of their three “true” road games thus far. This is a revenge game for ND who lost by 14 down in Blacksburg 17 days ago on a bad shooting night. At home, things will be different. 10* Notre Dame

8* Rhode Island (5:00 ET): After suffering a disappointing loss at Duquesne last Wednesday, Rhode Island came up with a less than inspiring effort Saturday against lowly Fordham. They managed to win, 52-42, but never came close to covering the 17-point spread. That performance was especially disappointing me as I laid the point. When you give up only 42 points at home, that should be an ATS win, no matter how large the spread. 

La Salle is off a shocking win at Richmond Saturday where they came in as 16.5-point underdogs. The Explorers pulled the upset in large part because they shot 57.1% from the field. That was the second game in a row they shot that exact percentage from the field. One would figure they are due to “cool off.” Facing an opponent that just allowed only 42 points in its last game seems like the “right time.”

While LaSalle certainly isn’t as inept as Fordham offensively, URI can certainly turn in another top-notch defensive effort here. The Rams have held two of their last three opponents under 33% shooting. Something to keep in mind is that earlier this month La Salle shot just 28.1% from the floor in an ugly loss to George Mason. So they can be wildly inconsistent. Rhode Island is 11-4 SU, 11-3-1 ATS their L15 visits here. 8* Rhode Island

10* Missouri (9:00 ET): A little surprised my power rankings are now saying Mizzou is a bit underrated here after earlier in the year, they (the power rankings) seemed to be lower on the Tigers than the market was. Do I think they are the #12 ranked team in the country (as they are in the latest AP/Coaches Polls)? No. But they are better than Tuesday’s opponent, Auburn, a team that has come on strong of late (5-0 ATS L5) but still doesn’t even crack the top 65 of my power rankings. Take the points here. 

Missouri has won and covered three straight, the latest win being very impressive as they went to Knoxville and beat Tennessee 73-64 as a 6.5-point underdog. That’s why they moved up to #12 in the polls. The Tigers have lost just twice all season, one of those being to Tennessee, so that’s now been avenged. The last three wins have been by a total of 36 points. Missouri shot very well in the 1H against Tennessee and played excellent defense throughout, holding the Vols to 35 percent in the 2H and forcing 18 turnovers. 

Auburn just hung 109 points on South Carolina Saturday, which is probably the reason they come in favored over a ranked team. Admittedly, the Tigers have looked much better since #1 recruit Sharife Cooper became eligible. Him playing coincides with the team’s 5-0 ATS run, but they are just 3-2 straight up in those games. They were actually the underdogs in Columbia on Saturday. This will be just the third time they’ve been favored in SEC play (if the line holds). Missouri has won four of the six games they’ve been an underdog. 10* Missouri

8* Western Michigan (6:00 ET): Western Michigan isn’t very good, but this number has grown far too high vs. Ohio Tuesday night. The last time the Bobcats were favored by double digits was against the worst team in the MAC (Northern Illinois) and they didn’t come close to covering as they won by just three points. While a solid 4-2 this month, the Bobcats have won just once by more than 10 points and I don’t think they’ll do that here as the team is only 8-6 SU on the year and 1-4 ATS off a SU win.

WMU has lost five in a row, four of them at home. While it sounds bad, be aware that the Broncos’ last four opponents are who I’d rate the top four teams in the conference. During the five-game losing skid, WMU has led or been tied at the half in three of them. That includes Saturday vs, Akron, whom they led 38-31 at the break. Eventually, this team is going to have a breakthrough. They are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season. 

Ohio was dreadful from three-point range Saturday vs. Ball State, making only 5 of 22, but they compensated for it by taking 35 free throw attempts, which was a lot more than the 19 Ball State took. That advantage at the charity stripe is how the Bobcats won by eight. The game before, OU scored a season-low 26 pts in the 1H (at home) in a game they basically trailed wire-to-wire vs. Kent State. Just not convinced that this is a squad that belongs in this price range. In two of the last four games, the Bobcats have allowed 57% (or higher!) shooting. 8* Western Michigan

10* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Both teams could very well be short-handed coming into this one. Well, we know Iowa State will. The Cyclones have been hit hard by COVID-19 with their last four games, three of which were to be against Top 25 opponents, all postponed. They haven’t played since Jan 9th when they got their doors blown off by Texas Tech, 91-64, which left them at 2-7 overall and 0-5 vs. the Big 12. I faded ISU in that Texas Tech game and will do so again now as they’re in even worse shape. 

All Iowa State team activities have been paused for the L10 days, creating quite the challenging situation for HC Steve Prohm. Prohm has said the Cyclones will be without several players for tonight and that all four of his walk-ons will need to be “ready to play.” That doesn’t sound promising. This was already looking like a rough season in Ames and now the team has gone 10 days without a full practice. Because of protocols, no more than two players have been able to practice together at a time and players aren’t even allowed to see one another, unless they are roommates. 

Oklahoma State had a key absence Saturday as the Big 12’s leading scorer and presumed #1 NBA Draft pick Cade Cunningham did not suit up. But despite missing their best player, the Cowboys actually led #1 Baylor at the half! Cunningham was cleared for Saturday (COVID), but was not ready to play according to the coaching staff. His status for tonight remains unknown, but the bottom line here is that the Pokes are the much better team here. They’ve not only hung tough with the likes of Baylor, Texas & West Virginia, but also beaten Texas Tech and Kansas. If Cunningham does play, it’ll be a bonus as I don’t think this game will be close at all. 10* Oklahoma State

10* Miami FL (6:00 ET): The Hurricanes are off a terrible 83-57 loss at Syracuse from earlier in the week. Even though that was their 7th loss in 10 games, “The U” is certainly due for better results as it has fallen by five points or less in five of those seven defeats. Look for them to get back on track Sunday vs. the Fighting Irish, who are off a rare win, just their second in the last eight games. The Irish have just one road win all year and it was by a single point over struggling Kentucky. Lay the points here. 

Notre Dame has played only four games in January and three of them were on the road. They lost at Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Then came an 80-70 win over Boston College last Saturday where they were 4.5-point favorites to win. It was a strong first half that propelled them to victory there, but the issue has been that the Irish are just not good defensively. They allow 75.7 PPG on the road. Being an underdog hasn’t been good at all for them as they are 5-33 SU L38 (1-8 this year) and 3-6 ATS this year.

Miami is solid defensively as they allow 64.2 PPG here in Coral Gables and a 39.5 FG%. I’d say what happened Tuesday in Syracuse was an atypical performance, not indicative of what the Canes are all about. As I alluded to earlier, this team has been rather unlucky in close games this season. They have three losses by two points or less. I say they bounce back in a big way here as ND is 0-4 ATS its L4 times playing with 7 or more days rest and dead last in the country at forcing turnovers. 10* Miami FL

8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): I have faded Fordham before, successfully I might add. It was in home games vs. St. Bonaventure and UMass, back to back, that I stepped in and won. Sunday is another good time to fade. While Rams did cover the spread their last time out, staying within a 18.5-point spot against Davidson (lost 73-58), they still have yet to score 60 points in a game all season and that’s a problem when facing a Rhode Island squad that’s more than capable of hanging a big number here.

URI has had its own issues with the pointspread recently, losing games they were favored to win against UMass and Duquesne. It should be pointed out though that those outright losses came on the road. In fact, they’ve played just one home game since January 3rd. It was a 20-point win over George Mason last Saturday. The Rams come into this game sporting a 4-1 SU home record and I really like the fact they are holding the opposition to just 40.5% shooting for the season. 

Fordham has just one win this season and it came by a single point (55-54) in a shocking upset of Dayton (they were 12-point underdogs). Averaging only 51.0 points per game is really horrendous when you think about it and Rhode Island will not be in a giving mood Sunday having lost two of their last three games outright. URI is 3-0 ATS off a conference loss so far and this just might be the easiest game they’ve got left on the schedule. Note their last two losses were both by just two points, one in overtime and the other they blew a DD lead. 8* Rhode Island

9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss (3:30 ET): I think we’ve hit a tipping point here where these teams are set to go Over the total. To be clear, the Aggies and Rebels have combined to go 21-4 Under this season while consistently producing low-scoring games. But this is the lowest O/U line to date (for either side) as oddsmakers were forced to react. It will be just the second game for A&M with a total lower than 130 points and the first for Ole Miss. Look for this one to “sneak Over” a very low total. 

While A&M comes into this game Saturday on a 9-game Under streak, several of those would have actually gone Over this O/U line. Four to be exact and it’s worth noting that only one of them has seen fewer than 122 total points scored, so that’s close. After losing 68-52 to Missouri last Saturday, the Aggies had their game vs. Vanderbilt postponed Tuesday. So they may not be as sharp defensively here.

Ole Miss held rival Miss State to just 46 points Tuesday, but before that they’d allowed over 70 in three consecutive contests. Their own scoring has dipped in SEC play, however, they are still averaging 71.2 PPG on the year and getting to that number today would almost ensure this game going Over. As I said earlier, this is the lowest O/U line either team has seen this season and in the case of the Rebels, only the last one was close. 9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss