10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Let’s head to the West Coast for tonight’s 10* offering. This game between St. Mary’s and San Diego State is being played in Phoenix, AZ as part of the Jerry Colangelo Classic. I like the spot for SDSU; not just because they’re getting points, but also because they come in well-rested. The last time they took the court was 12/8 when they defeated CS-Fullerton by a score of 66-56. 

These are two defensive-minded teams. St. Mary’s gives up only 57.6 PPG while SDSU isn’t too far behind that, allowing only 59.2 PPG. The Aztecs have lost only three times this season -  to BYU, USC and Michigan. All three of those teams have spent time in the Top 25 this year. I just don’t see St. Mary’s as being quite at that level. Something to keep in mind is that the defensive numbers would be even more even if you exclude the Gaels holding Stanislaus State, a non-board team, to 39 points on Tuesday. 

St. Mary’s has actually played two games since SDSU last took the court. Besides beating up on a “little guy” earlier this week, the Gaels also crushed UCSB 80-59 last weekend. But that was at home. Note the previous two games, both on the road, saw SMU struggle. They barely got by Utah State (won by 2) and then lost by 16 to Colorado State. Notable is that both of those teams hail from the Mountain West. I look for the Aztecs to win a low-scoring game on Friday. 10* San Diego State

8* NC State (6:30 ET): This is a neutral site game, being played in Charlotte, NC. Taking a look at NC State, whose three losses have been to Oklahoma State, Louisville and Purdue, I’m not sure they should be the underdog here. I realize they are just 2-8 ATS, but the Wolfpack have gone off as the favorite for most of those games. They are 1-6 ATS as a favorite so far this season, including 0-6 when laying seven or more. But this time, we don’t have to worry about laying any points, do we? 

Richmond is on a three-game win streak, having beaten Wofford, Northern Iowa and Toledo. Prior to that though, the Spiders had lost four of six. It was a narrow win on Sunday at home over Toledo, 72-69, where the Spiders did not cover the 9.5-point spread. In fact, they scored a season-low 24 points in the 1st half and found themselves trailing by 17! Honestly, I have no idea how Richmond was able to come back and win that game.

As for NC State, they took Purdue to OT on Sunday. It was a crushing defeat considering the Wolfpack never trailed in regulation to a team that was ranked #1 in the country at the time. NC State’s only other two losses were both by six points or less, so they’ve really yet to play a “bad game” all season. This despite not shooting the ball all that well. But the Wolfpack are top five in the country in FT attempts (23.9 per game) and are an excellent offensive rebounding team. Considering that NC State probably should have won its last game while Richmond should have probably lost theirs, I’ll call for things to “even out” here on Friday. Take the points. 8* NC State

8* Tulsa (8:00 ET): What a strange season it’s been so far for Alcorn State. The Braves are 1-8 straight up but 8-1 against the spread. So while they're losing, it’s almost never by as much as the oddsmakers anticipate. I think that interesting dichotomy ends tonight with a visit to Tulsa. Note that there have been only two spreads shorter than this one in Alcorn State games this season. One of those was the lone game they failed to cover, an 85-64 loss at Tulane as 13-point underdogs. By the way, this will also be the 10th consecutive “true” road game for Alcorn State and they aren’t even close to being done with their “travels.” 

Alcorn State’s last three games have resulted in losses by 21, 32 and 19 points. So they’re losing by an average of 24 PPG. The alma mater of the late, great Steve “Air” McNair averages only 60 PPG and they haven’t topped 64 in any of their last eight contests. In terms of efficiency, they are in the bottom 30 in the country at the offensive end. Earlier, I mentioned the cacophony of road games that the Braves have been playing this season. They’ve still got SIX more to go after this one, including a visit to #1 Baylor next Monday, which may have the player’s attention more so than this game does. 

Tulsa isn’t going to pass up this opportunity to beat up on a road-weary opponent. The Golden Hurricane just ended a three-game losing streak last Saturday, beating Southern Illinois 69-65 as a three-point favorite. I know there have been some disappointing showings as a favorite previously, but Tulsa also has pulled upset wins over Oregon State and Rhode Island. They hold teams to a very respectable average (63.3 PPG) here at home and with Alcorn State shooting just 38.0% on the year, I feel that this is going to be one of the Golden Hurricane’s better defensive efforts all season. Thus, lay the points. 8* Tulsa

10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss (8:30 ET): Though the last six Ole Miss games have all stayed Under the total, I like this one to go Over. The Rebels are coming off back to back horrendous shooting efforts. Despite beating Memphis 67-63 on December 4th, the Rebels shot just 35.3% in that game. Then, in Atlanta over the weekend, it was a disastrous performance with 27.4% shooting in a 71-48 loss to Western Kentucky. But now Ole Miss is back in Oxford (where they are 5-0 and averaging 78.0 PPG). Expect the scoring to increase in this one. 

The Rebels better be scoring tonight. Because they are facing a Middle Tennessee team that comes in averaging 80.1 PPG. The Blue Raiders are 8-2 straight up and there’s been just one game all season where they failed to score at least 71 points. In the last game, MTSU went to Tenn-Martin and came out on top 84-75. That was actually the second win over the Skyhawks this month. They won 73-61 in Murfreesboro back on the 1st. In between, there was a loss at Murray State where the Blue Raiders surrendered 93 points (no overtime!). 

Neither of these teams are all that efficient on offense, but Middle Tennessee likes to “play fast” and thus there should be plenty of possessions in tonight’s contest. Again, the real key is that I expect Ole Miss to shoot MUCH better than they have in their last two games. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Middle Tennessee has been an underdog, four of those games coming on the road. A huge key to the Blue Raiders’ success is that they get to the free throw line 22 times per game, more than any other Conference USA squad. 10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss

8* Houston (8:00 ET): The 14th ranked Cougars are coming off a one-point loss at Alabama (who is now the #6 ranked team in the country), but I still believe Kelvin Sampson’s team to be one of the finest in the entire country. Remember that this was a Final Four team last season. My power ratings still consider them to be a top four team right now. Houston’s only two losses have been by a combined three points and it could certainly be argued they were the victim of a bad call in Tuscaloosa Saturday night. On the final possession, it looked as if Alabama got away with goaltending. 

So now the Cougars return home to face Louisiana. Expect them to take no mercy on their visitors. The Ragin Cajuns enter this game with a 5-4 SU record and are also off a loss, 78-69 to Louisiana Tech. That loss came despite a career game from Jordan Brown (30 points) and La Tech shooting just 19% from three-point range. I think it also bears mentioning that Louisiana lost outright (as a 14.5-point favorite) earlier in the year to Jackson State. They’ve been outscored by an average of 18.3 points in the L3 road games and none of those three opponents were as strong as this one is. 

Look for Houston to feast off turnovers in this game. The defense forces a TO on 25.2% of all possessions, which is top 25 in the country. Meanwhile, Louisiana is among the sloppiest teams in the country, turning it over on 22 percent of all offensive possessions. The Cougars are 6-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 33.5 PPG. Off the loss to Alabama, where they shot poorly, Houston will have a “take no prisoners” approach to this game. Lay the points. 8* Houston

8* LA Monroe (7:30 ET): Kind of “scratching my head” here as to why LA Monroe is getting double digits here. I’m assuming that the blowout losses the Warhawks suffered early in the season are still on the oddsmakers’ mind. But those were to the likes of LSU and Auburn, two of the best teams in the entire country. Here they are facing a SF Austin team that has fallen off a bit from the years (2014-18) where they were an NCAA Tournament regular. Even though they are 7-2 SU, the Lumberjacks shouldn’t be laying this many points tonight. 

This is a significant season in Nacogdoches as SFA (along with three other Texas schools) moved from the Southland Conference to the WAC. The move came on the heels of the program having to vacate some 100+ wins from its “heyday” due to eligibility errors. As the season moves on, it will be interesting to see how the Lumberjacks perform in their new conference. They’ve yet to play a single WAC game and the majority of their opponents have been “also-rans” (including three non-DI opponents). SFA did just beat Liberty 61-53, as 2.5-point dog, over the weekend. 

But I think that minor upset should result in a bit of a letdown tonight. SFA was able to defeat Liberty thanks to much better shooting from three-point range (53.3% to 22.2%) and a significant edge in FT attempts. They can’t count on that happening again. LA Monroe has built up some confidence with three consecutive wins and the Warhawks now average 81.3 PPG, tied for 32nd most in the country! My power ratings indicate this number should be a LOT lower and I’ll trust those numbers by taking the points. 8* LA Monroe

10* Yale (7:00 ET): The big “story” coming into this game is that Monmouth is a perfect 10-0 against the spread to start the season. What makes that start all the more remarkable is that all but two of the contests have been “true” road games. Only twice have the Hawks lost straight up  - by two at Charlotte and by five at St. John’s. So, no matter what way you slice it, it’s been an incredible start by the MAAC contingent. But you know that eventually they are going to fail to cover a spread. I believe tonight is that night. This will be Monmouth’s sixth straight game on the road (second in three days) and they are facing a team that was the preseason favorite to win its conference. Take the points here. 

Now, with a 6-6 SU record, Yale has failed to live up to its advanced billing. The Bulldogs have dropped a couple close ones, losing by three to Southern Utah and by four to Stony Brook, but in their five games as underdogs they’ve lost four times. Now some of those were against Top 25 teams, like Seton Hall and Auburn. Yale also had to travel to face a good Vermont team. In the most recent game, the Bulldogs faced Iona (another MAAC team) and lost 91-77. Nevertheless, I still think this team is better than its record and will show why they were the preseason choice to win the Ivy League. 

With Monmouth, there has to be a concern about them “running out of gas” at some point. Again, tonight marks their sixth straight game on the road, a stretch which goes all the way back to the end of November. They outlasted Pitt on Sunday, winning 56-52, thanks to a huge first half. Pitt missed all seven of its three point attempts in the 1H and finished the game with a 34.0 overall FG%. Yale will shoot better than that as they are 46.6% for the season at home, including 38.5% from three. The Bulldogs, who are 7-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points in their last game, also average 82.6 PPG on their own court. They’ve lost B2B games just one time this year. 10* Yale

10* Oklahoma State (8:00 ET): After a 6-1 start to their season, Oklahoma State has dropped two straight games, both as home favorites. They lost 60-51 to Wichita State and 77-71 to Xavier. In both instances, the Cowboys inability to make shots doomed them. They missed their final nine FG attempts vs. Wichita State, ending up at just 37.5% for the game. Against Xavier, the Pokes ran into a 2-3 matchup zone and that really slowed them down. The L2 games have seen OSU go a combined 13 of 47 (27.6%) from three-point range. Having had more than a week off, look for them to shoot better tonight against Cleveland State here in Stillwater. Lay the points. 

Now I know it may seem risky to lay double digits to a Cleveland State team that has won its last six games. But the Vikings, co-regular season champs in the Horizon League last season, haven’t had to leave campus in quite a while. They’ve played just one “true” road game all season and that was the opener, a 69-59 loss to BYU. CSU then lost its next game, 67-56 to Ohio U, giving them an 0-2 start to the year. They’ve since managed to beat up on some lesser competition, but this will easily be their toughest opponent to date. 

In four of the last five games, Cleveland State has managed to shoot 50% or better from the field. Don’t look for that to happen tonight. OSU has held opponents to 37.3% for the year so far and is 13th in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. Both teams have big upcoming games (CSU plays Duke next, OSU plays Houston). But the home team, coming off B2B losses, should be more focused tonight and will shoot the basketball a lot better than they have of late. Look for a “statement game” from the Cowboys. 10* Oklahoma State

8* UMKC (3:00 ET): It would seem as if the oddsmakers are underrating UMKC right now. I had them on Friday, as my *10* Game of the Week, when they held off Green Bay for a 64-55 win and cover as 8.5-point favorites. I definitely had to sweat the cover, but let it be known that the Roos were up by as many as 17 points in the second half. The fact that the game ended up being closer “than it should have been” actually works in our favor here as we can again grab UMKC at a discounted price. 

Here, the Roos are facing a SIU-Edwardsville team that is 3-6 SU and has not won B2B games at any point this season. The fact SIU-Edwardsville is off a win here makes them an attractive fade on Sunday. The Cougars played arguably their best game on Wednesday, beating IPFW 80-59 as a 2-point home underdog. They jumped on the Mastodons from the start, taking a 46-29 lead. But SIU Edwardsville has yet to play two good games in a row. After their previous two wins, they’ve gone out and lost by double digits both times. 

One of those losses was to St. Thomas, a non-DI school! The other was a 25-point loss at Bradley last Saturday. This issue of not being able to follow up on a win has persisted for a while now with SIU-Edwardsville as they are 0-7 ATS off their previous seven SU win! As for UMKC, they are now a perfect 5-0 ATS their L5 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS their last six games vs. teams that have losing records. A reminder that the Roos have already gone to Missouri and won this year. 8* UMKC

10* Mississippi State (2:00 ET):  There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of the “lesser knowns” would be Colorado State, who is 9-0. The Rams are not ranked and other than Iowa State, I’d consider them the “weakest” of those teams that still don’t have a loss. Expect CSU to lose for the first time on Saturday as they face a Mississippi State team that’s angry after losing to Minnesota (as 11.5-pt favorites) in Starkville last weekend. MSU is 6-2 SU on the year and this is the first time they’ve been underdogs in any game. Take the points. 

This game takes place in Fort Worth, TX as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. It certainly looks to be Colorado State’s toughest test so far, although they did just beat St. Mary’s by 16 last weekend. But that game was in Fort Collins where the Rams “shot the lights out,” making 52.8% of their total field goal attempts, including 9 of 16 from three-point range. Also helpful was the fact St. Mary’s missed 17 of its 21 three-point attempts.

Miss State has done an excellent job defensively, holding teams to 39.4% shooting for the year. It should be noted that this is their second straight game against an unbeaten team. The Bulldogs were tied with Minnesota with 17 seconds left on Sunday before giving up the game’s final five points (Minnesota has since lost to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten). I don’t think that MSU is going to blow a second chance to ruin a team’s unbeaten start. Colorado State can’t continue to shoot 53.6% from the floor (season average!) and Miss State has the size advantage here. 10* Mississippi State

8* Oklahoma (1:30 ET): There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of them is #12 Arkansas, who is 9-0. You can’t take away from the fact they are unbeaten, but I’m not nearly as high on the Hogs as the pollsters are. They sit just outside the Top 25 in my own personal power ratings, which is just a little lower than they are in the KenPom ratings (where they are #23). This afternoon marks the Razorbacks’ first “true” road game of the season and I think it will be their first SU loss as well. 

Oklahoma is hosting Arkansas on Saturday. The Sooners are 7-2 SU, but coming off a bad loss to Butler here in Norman. It wasn’t “bad” in the sense that they were blown out. But rather, OU was an 11-point favorite in the 66-62 overtime loss. The Sooners blew a 10-point halftime advantage and saw their 26-game home win streak against non-conference teams come to an end. Both of their losses this year have been close; the other was by three to Utah State in Myrtle Beach. 

Oklahoma already holds a win over a Top 25 team this season. Ironically, it was over a SEC team. They beat Florida 74-67 (in Norman) back on Dec 1. OU will soon be headed to the SEC, but they’re not there yet, so the 26-1 SU run vs non-conference teams at home is still in play for this matchup with Arkansas, a team the Sooners are 5-0 SU/ATS when hosting, going back to ‘97. This game is being played in Oklahoma City, not Norman, but I’d still consider it a “home game” for the Sooners, who should hand Arkansas its first loss of the season. 8* Oklahoma

10* UMKC (8:00 ET): UMKC has fared extremely well at home thus far, although both times they faced non-DI opposition. Still, giving up an average of just 34 PPG at home is quite the accomplishment. Tonight the Roos host a Green Bay squad that is 0-4 on the road with the four losses coming by an average of 13.7 PPG. It’s the first time this season that UMKC has been favored, but according to my own power ratings, the number isn’t nearly high enough. So I’ll lay the points. 

UMKC opened its season with three road games against teams from “power conferences.” After predictably losing the first two (at Minnesota and Iowa), the Roos stunned the College Basketball world by going to Missouri and winning 80-66 as an 11-point dog. That win obviously carries a lot of weight in the power rating. But it should be noted the Roos have another road win as well, 74-58 at Idaho State, where they were a two-point dog. All four of the teams wins this season have been by double digits. 

Green Bay had a two-game win streak snapped last Saturday as they were housed 82-58 by Youngstown State, at home. That was a pick em game according to the oddsmakers, however, the Phoenix were outscored 50-28 over the final 22 minutes. Their only two wins this year came against a non-DI team (WI-Superior) and Robert Morris (who is still winless). I can’t see GB going on the road and pulling an upset here. For UMKC, this is the final home game before X-Mas, so they’re going to want to win big. 10* UMKC

8* St. John’s (8:30 ET): I think it’s a secretly “juicy” card tonight in College Hoops. Not only are two of the remaining nine unbeatens playing, but you have the nation’s worst ATS team (who I’m taking) as well as the nation’s best ATS team (who I’ll be fading) both in action. I already talked about how 0-9 SU/ATS William & Mary is “due” for a win & cover Thursday. Now let’s turn to Monmounth, who is 8-0 ATS and certainly due to drop a game at the betting window. There are only two perfect ATS teams left (7-0 MD-East Shore is the other). I think “tonight is the night” for the Hawks to fall from those ranks as they are clear underdogs at St. John’s. Lay the points in this one. 

St. John’s unveiled a new starting lineup on Sunday and the end result was an 83-69 win against Fordham. Replacing 6-2 G Stef Smith and 6-11 center Joel Soriano were Dylan Addae-Wusu and Esahia Nyiwe. Addae-Wusu had a career-day (11 points and 11 assists) while Nyiwe scored seven points. Addae-Wusu was high school teammates with the Johnnies’ second-leading scorer, Posh Alexander, who also had a career-day against Fordham with 23 points. Julian Champagnie led the Big East in scoring last season and is averaging 21.0 PPG so far this year. I think Red Storm HC Mike Anderson has found himself a solid starting five.

St. John’s is 6-2 SU coming into this game. Their only losses were to Kansas and Indiana. While they got blown out by the Jayhawks, the Red Storm only lost by two at Indiana. Against the spread, they are 0-5 L5 games, but they were big double digit faves in four of those games (all wins) and then there was the game vs. Kansas. I know that Monmouth is not only perfect ATS, but also on a 7-game SU win streak after losing the season opener (by just two) to Charlotte. But tonight marks the Hawks’ seventh road game of the season and fourth in the last 12 days. They’ve got to be running on empty. 8* St. John’s

8* William & Mary (7:00 ET): Tonight “has” to be the night for William & Mary, right? The Tribe comes into Thursday at 0-9 - both straight up and against the spread! There are just four winless teams in the country, straight up. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. There are also just four winless teams in the country, against the spread. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. This is quite the dubious distinction for one of the last remaining “major” College Basketball programs to never make a NCAA Tournament. But hosting an “added board team” tonight, we like the Tribe to “get off the schneid.” 

Hampton comes in with a 3-6 SU record, but is off its first win in nearly a month. After opening 2-0 SU (both wins against non-DI opposition), the Pirates promptly lost their next six games. Four of those six losses came by double digits and all were by at least six points (significant when looking at tonight’s pointspread). But Saturday saw the Pirates finally take down a D-I opponent as they snuck by Norfolk State 58-57. They won on a buzzer-beater as Russell Dean hit a miraculous three-pointer as time expired. That was a nice win as a three-point home dog, but Hampton is still 0-3 SU on the road this season. 

Hampton is still on a “high” off their thrilling win, but William & Mary is desperate and knows this is their best shot at a win yet. The only other time that the Tribe have been favored was the second game of the season when they were -2 here at home vs. American U and lost 72-64. I know that an 0-9 SU/ATS record inspires little confidence here, but every team is eventually “due” and in the case of W&M they are facing their weakest opponent yet, one that is 5-16 ATS its L21 non-conference games. Hampton is 0-5 ATS the L5 times it has been off an ATS win and 0-4 SU vs. W&M the L4 seasons. 8* William & Mary

10* Seton Hall (6:30 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this Big 12 vs. Big East matchup Thursday night. This isn’t the first time I’ve taken Seton Hall, nor will it be the last. It was almost a month ago that I called the Pirates one of the more underrated teams in the country as they went into Michigan and pulled a 67-65 upset. That win earned them the respect they deserved. While the Pirates did lose their next game, 79-76 to Ohio State, they have since rattled off four consecutive victories and come into tonight ranked #23 in the country. 

Texas is ranked #7 in the country and like Seton Hall has just one loss on the season. The Longhorns were beaten as a 7.5-point dog by Gonzaga, 86-74 back on November 13th. That loss is still the only time UT has had to venture off campus thus far. They’ve won five straight by an average of 23 PPG, but that’s all against lesser competition. This will be, by far, the ‘Horns toughest test since losing to the ‘Zags. 

While Texas is the higher ranked team, factoring in the home court edge, I believe Seton Hall should be the favorite here. The Pirates are 5-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 32.4 PPG. Again, Texas has played only one “true” road game while Seton Hall not only went to Michigan, but also played a Holiday Tournament in Florida. Myles Cale returned to Seton Hall’s lineup over the weekend, after missing the previous three games. That’s a big boost for tonight. Also, Texas is 0 for its last 7 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest and 2-14 ATS when facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG. 10* Seton Hall

8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): Going back to my “old friends” in Utah Valley. The last time I played the Wolverines, they turned in an outright upset for me, defeating #12 BYU 72-65 in overtime as 13-point underdogs. Quite obviously, that was the Wolverines’ most impressive win to date as they’ve started the season 7-1. That they were able to defeat BYU despite shooting just 31.3% from the field (including 5 of 19 on 3PA) speaks to what kind of team we’ve got here. They did have a substantial edge at the FT line over BYU, but even if that’s not the case tonight, UVU should get by Southern Utah. Take the points. 

Southern Utah enters tonight on a four-game win streak. Two of those wins, 88-85 over Yale and 81-75 over Idaho, were close. In fact, the win over Yale required OT. This will actually be just the second home game for the Thunderbirds, so it may seem surprising that they are 5-3 SU overall. But they’ve only been a dog three times and did lose outright at Dixie State (as a 10.5-point favorite) in the second game of the season. 

I know that one has to be careful about taking a team coming off a big upset win, but in the case of Utah Valley State, they’ve had plenty of time off. The win over BYU was last Wednesday. They were to play Yellowstone Christian (a non-board team) on Friday, but that game was canceled. I’ve got the Wolverines rated as the better team on a neutral floor, so even with the home court advantage tonight, Southern Utah should not be favored by this many. This is a triple revenge game for UVU as they have not beaten their in-state rivals since 2014 (lost in both ‘19 and ‘20). 8* Utah Valley State

10* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Normally, when a ranked and unranked team meet, I see value in the latter. But here, you’ve got a UConn team whose #15 ranking I am totally in line with, taking on a West Virginia team that simply isn’t on their level. I understand that this game is in Morgantown and UConn is without two starters. But my power ratings say the Huskies should still be the favorites tonight, so taking the points in this one looks to be a “no-brainer.” 

At 8-1, UConn is off to its best start since 2013-14. This is a team with tremendous depth, which is why I am not overly concerned about the absences of Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin. Without those two, the Huskies still scored 88 points in their last game. Granted, it was at home vs. Grambling, but positive contributions from the likes of R.J. Cole, Isaiah Whatley and Jordan Hawkins have me confident in this team heading into tonight. Nine different players scored and logged at least 12 minutes on the court against Grambling. I also like the fact that UConn is 16th nationally in FG% defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 37.2 percent for the season. 

West Virginia (7-1) also has just one loss. It came against Marquette, back on 11/19, 82-71 as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. The Mountaineers have since rattled off four straight wins, including 67-51 over Radford on Saturday. But only two players finished that game in double figures. With second-leading scorer Sean McNeil out, WVU leans heavily on Taz Sherman, who went for 27 against Radford. I think that UConn, the superior defensive team in this matchup, can contain Sherman. The Huskies’ only loss this year was by four to Michigan State on Thanksgiving, which came a day after a 2OT win over Auburn in a holiday tournament. Look for them to win their first “true” road game of 2021-22. 10* Connecticut

8* DePaul (8:30 ET): After suffering their first loss of the season, I see DePaul bouncing back in a major way Tuesday night at home. The Blue Demons lost 68-64 on Saturday, to Loyola Chicago, but covered the spread as 4.5-point home underdogs. They’re now 6-1 ATS and while there have been some close wins mixed in (won by three over Rutgers and four over W Illinois), this should be more of a blowout as Duquesne comes in at 3-6 SU and off a very tough loss at Marshall. Lay the points.

On Saturday, Duquesne went to Marshall and took a seven-point lead into halftime. But it was not meant to be. The Dukes lost 72-71 on a last-second three-pointer. While they left with the cash (as eight-point dogs), it’s going to be a difficult loss to get over and thus I believe the Dukes are ripe to be blown out here. This is the first time this season that Duquesne has had to play B2B “true” road games. They’ve actually dropped two in a row as last week also saw them lose at home to Bowling Green, 78-70 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

DePaul also led at the half in their last game. They took a 37-31 lead into the break and seemed primed to win their seventh straight game. But they only scored 27 points in the second half. Leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty was held to only 10 points and six rebounds. He averages 21.1 PPG, so expect a bounce back effort here. My power ratings say that this should be a double digit spread, so I’ll put faith in that and lay the number. 8* DePaul

10* Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas enters the day ranked #8 in the country. I’ve got them a bit higher in my own power ratings. The Jayhawks’ lone defeat came by a single point, in Florida, to Dayton on a buzzer-beater. That was a game they led by 10 at the half. Since suffering that loss, KU has bounced back with convincing wins over Iona (also in Florida) and at St. John’s. Tonight they face a UTEP team that is going to be severely outclassed. The game takes place in Kansas City, not Lawrence, but you’re still going to want to lay the points as the favorite should roll here.

UTEP has a 4-3 SU record after a loss to New Mexico State last week. That’s the only game the Miners have played since Thanksgiving. I  made the mistake of taking the Under in that last game and what killed me was UTEP allowing 56.5% shooting, including 40% from three-point range. I don’t see the Miners defending any better here against one of the elite offensive teams in the country (Kansas is 3rd in Off Efficiency per KenPom). Another issue is that UTEP fouls way too much. They also don’t shoot well from behind the arc (just 31.7%), so it’s going to be difficult to “keep pace” against a vastly superior opponent. 

These teams met last season and the game was actually close (Kansas won 67-62 as a 17-point favorite). It was not a great shooting night for the Jayhawks, who made only five three-pointers and 41.8% of their total FG attempts. I expect a much better effort at the offensive end tonight. Covering the spread has been a bit of an issue thus far for Bill Self’s team (3-3-1 ATS), but UTEP is just 2-6 ATS its last eight games vs. teams with winning records and hasn’t faced any team near this caliber all season. 10* Kansas

8* South Dakota (8:00 ET): I wouldn’t want to lay points with a Northern Colorado team that has seen four of its five wins come by three points or less. The Bears opened their season by beating Pacific 67-65 and then Hawaii 81-78. Then they proceeded to lose five of their next six contests, the lone win coming against Colorado College (non-DI team). That 93-53 final is the only time Northern Colorado has won a game by more than three points all season. They are coming off a two-point win (in OT) over Montana State in the Big Sky opener, then a three-point win over Montana on Saturday (a game they trailed by eight at the half). 

Now South Dakota is hardly some dominant force. But the Coyotes should be able to stay inside this generous number tonight. They’ll come in with some confidence after picking up their own non-DI victory on Friday, 93-37 over Waldorf College. South Dakota is now 5-3 SU overall and aside from a horrible second game of the season (at Drake), they’ve been competitive throughout. They were favored in three of their early wins. 

This is a non-conference game, so it is unlikely to have the favorite’s full attention. In fact, Northern Colorado heads to Arizona next week and that may be the game the coaching staff and players are thinking about right now. The Bears have not been favored by this many points in any game this season and I can’t see them shooting 53.5% again from the floor, like they did their last time out. The last five games have seen them allow 77.8 PPG on 48.3% shooting. 8* South Dakota

10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico (9:00 ET): I’m going to try with the Under for a second time here with New Mexico State. Back on Friday, I was unsuccessful as the Aggies and UTEP combined for 141 points, six more than what the oddsmakers projected. Notable though is that the number of combined points was lower than the O/U line for tonight’s game against New Mexico. Now that’s understandable given these two teams went to a 101-94 final last week. But the average number of total points in NMSU games this season is still only 148.4 PPG. 

For more than half the game, NMSU and UTEP looked to be headed for an Under. I was feeling good when the game was 34-34 with just over 15 minutes remaining. But those final 15 minutes saw both teams more than double their scoring. The Aggies finished the game by shooting an unreal 56.6% from the field. They also hit 40% from three-point range for the second straight game. I just can’t see them matching those numbers again tonight.

New Mexico has not played since the first meeting with NMSU. Aside from a 73-58 loss to Towson, virtually every Lobos’ game has been high-scoring. You can also say the same for NMSU as their last six games have all gone Over the total. But this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for either team this season. The number was 143.0 last week, so it’s a substantial increase from that. The Under is a combined 20-6 in these teams last 26 Monday games. 10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico

10* Canisius (1:00 ET): Going with the short home dog in this one as Canisius should be highly motivated facing a team that’s unbeaten, ATS that is. Monmouth is 7-0 vs. the number thus far, one of only four teams in the country to be 6-0 ATS or better. The Hawks are also 6-1 SU with the only loss coming at Charlotte in the season opener. Since then, they’ve gone on quite the run, which includes an outright upset at Cincinnati two weeks ago. But you’ve got to think they are due to “slip up.”

Another motivating factor for Canisius is that they’ve lost five straight to their MAAC rivals (also 0-5 ATS in those games). Furthermore, the Golden Griffins have lost two straight at home - 89-75 to Cornell and 74-68 to Fairfield. They went off as the favorite in both games. After losing the conference opener, Canisius is now 2-6 SU on the year, so this is pretty close to a “must-win” for them. It’s just tough for me to see this team losing three in a row at home. Plus, Monmouth is due to drop a game, at least at the betting window.

Sure enough, Canisius is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three times as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. They were blistered by hot shooting in the L2 games as Cornell shot 61.8% and Fairfield shot 53.6%. Monmouth has averaged just 59 points the L2 games and will be playing its third straight away game and second in three days. They benefited from the opponent (Niagara) shooting just 28.6% on Friday. That’s quite the difference from Canisius’ last two opponents. Look for the shooting to “even out” in this early Sunday start. Take the points. 10* Canisius

10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP (8:00 ET): New Mexico State has gone Over in each of its last five lined games, including a wild 101-94 home loss to rival New Mexico (that did NOT go to overtime) earlier in the week. The Aggies will rematch the Lobos in Albuquerque on Monday. There’s a chance they might be looking ahead to that rematch, but regardless I expect tonight’s game in El Paso to be a lot lower-scoring than recent NMSU contests. This is primarily due to the fact the home team (UTEP) is allowing just 59.3 PPG this season. Take the Under. 

At home, UTEP is allowing just 53.7 PPG. They’ve played four games here so far and none of the opponents have been able to score more than 57 points. Now, none of those opponents were all that formidable (two were non-DI teams), but it’s not as if New Mexico State is some kind of juggernaut either. This will be the Aggies’ first “true” road game of the season. They’ve played three neutral site games so far and one of them (against Utah State) saw them held to just 58 points 

UTEP is just 236th in points per possession, so I wouldn’t count on them scoring very many points Friday night. It was just two games ago, here at home, they finished with 40 points in a loss to UC Riverside (where the Miners were 4.5-point favorites!). Throw in the fact that NMSU doesn’t exactly play at the fastest tempo (276th) and you’ve got the perfect recipe here for their Over streak to be halted. The Under is 35-17 in UTEP’s last 52 home games, including 6-2 the L8 when they were a dog. 10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP

10* Sacramento State (10:00 ET): Both Montana and Sacramento State head into the Big Sky opener off humbling defeats. Stepping up in class to face a team from the Pac 12 did not go well for either side as Sacramento State lost 105-59 at Arizona on Saturday while Montana was an 87-47 loser in Oregon on Monday. While Montana had won three in a row prior to that blowout loss, they are at a disadvantage here, playing their third game in seven days and second straight time on the road. 

The loss to Arizona is the only game Sacramento State has played in the last nine days. The Hornets have had two more days to prepare for this conference opener than Montana has. That’s pretty key in a matchup where I don’t see much of an edge for the favorite, even if the amount of time between games was equal. Also, Sacramento State happens to be 5-0 ATS off its previous five SU losses. 

Then you’ve got to take into account the fact Montana is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road so far. While two of those games were against teams from “power conferences” (Miss State and Oregon), both went VERY badly (Montana lost by a combined 77 points) and the Golden Grizzlies also lost outright (as seven-point favorites) at North Dakota. An 89-83 home win last year, in overtime, marked the first time Sacramento State beat Montana since 2017. You have to figure they’ll be hungry for their first regulation win in the rivalry in nearly five years. At home, the Hornets are absolutely capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points. 10* Sacramento State

8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): So BYU is 6-0 and ranked #12 in the country right now. But despite that record, which includes an impressive beatdown of Oregon (in Portland), I’m not convinced the Cougars are even one of the top 25 teams in America. Yes, they proved me wrong when they went to Salt Lake City on Saturday and beat rival Utah 75-64 as one-point favorites. But they are much bigger favorites tonight at Utah Valley State and covering this spread is going to be a lot more problematic for them. 

Utah Valley State is no slouch as they bring a 6-1 SU record into this contest. Their lone loss came in the season opener, by 20 at Boise State. Since then, it’s been six straight wins, all of which have seen the Wolverines score 74 or more points. They are averaging 79.5 PPG here at home. So unless it’s some kind of unforeseen poor effort at the defensive end of the floor tonight, I see the Wolverines covering this spread pretty easily. My own power ratings say this spread should be single digits.

Coming off a win over Utah, this has the makings of a “letdown” game for BYU. Meanwhile, Utah Valley State should be incredibly fired up to be facing a “bigger” in-state foe. (The respective campuses are just five miles apart). Utah Valley already has pulled a couple upsets, one over Long Beach State and another against CBI Champion Pepperdine. An outright win here would be quite the achievement. I can’t say it’s going to happen, but the underdog will cover the generous number. 8* Utah Valley State

10* Over S Illinois/Evansville (7:00 ET): We’re gonna try with the Over here on a Southern Illinois team that has seen the Under hit in all six of its games this season. The reason being this is a new “low watermark” for an SIU O/U. The previous low was 125.0. Now that game saw them score only 47 points against Northeastern, but I have to imagine the Salukis are going to shoot better than 29.6%, which is what they did vs. Northeastern. Most of the O/U lines for SIU games this season have been north of 130.0. I see some value here. 

Similarly, Evansville has had just one O/U line lower than tonight. They went Over (119.5) in that game, which ended up being a 69-60 loss to Akron. The Purple Aces followed that up by defeating Eastern Illinois on Sunday, 70-54 as 6.5-point road favorites. Five of their last six games would have gone Over tonight’s total, the exception being a game vs. Vermont when they shot just 32.7%. Let the record show that Evansville is 5-1 to the Over the L6 times they’ve been a home dog, a role they are in tonight. 

The last time these MVC teams played was December 28th of last year and that ended up being a very high scoring game, 84-72, with Evansville (+8) getting the surprise win in Carbondale. They shot 55.3% from the floor, including 17 of 29 from three-point range. While I don’t think the Purple Aces are going to shoot the ball that well again here, look for them to make enough shots that this game does go Over the total, which will be a first for SIU this year. Evansville is shooting the ball much better at home so far. 10* Over Southern Illinois/Evansville

8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): It is my view that Nevada should not be laying double digits here. While Pepperdine (losers of four in a row) is definitely struggling right now, the favored Wolf Pack are just 3-4 SU themselves and highly unlikely to replicate the efforts we saw from them in the L2 games, wins over George Mason and Washington in the Crossover Classic at Sioux Falls, SD. It’s been a long journey back to Reno (last 5 games all away from home) and the last time the Wolf Pack played here, they lost outright to another WCC team (San Diego) 75-68 as 13.5-point chalk. Take the points here.

Plus, while Pepperdine has been losing, most of the games have been close. The last three games were all decided by single digits, including a 59-56 game against Grand Canyon (who I just won with last night) on Saturday. The Waves never trailed by more than six in that one and were ahead with less than two minutes to go. Prior to that, they gave Fresno State and TCU tough games at the SoCal Challenge. 

Nevada is actually 0-2 against the WCC this season. Not only did they lose that home game to San Diego that I already mentioned, but they also gave up 96 points in a horrible loss at Santa Clara. They’ve also been torched for 102 points by South Dakota State! This is a bad team defensively, so Pepperdine is basically a lock to shoot better here than they did against Grand Canyon (35.1%) in the last game. The Waves are a (slightly) better three-point shooting team than Nevada and they are 6-1 ATS when on a three-game losing streak the L3 seasons. 8* Pepperdine

10* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): While I do not expect The Beach to win this game, it’s a generous number that they are taking from San Diego State and this should end up being closer than what the oddsmakers think. Just last Wednesday, LBSU did pull an outright upset, beating Wright State 85-76 as 10-point underdogs to earn their only win in the Naples Invitational. Coming off a humbling 80-43 loss to Murray State, it was somewhat of a shocking effort from LBSU, who basically led from start to finish. 

San Diego State is 4-2 SU on the year, but does not have a win by greater than 17 points and they just lost 58-43 to USC on Friday. That loss, which took place in Anaheim as part of the Wooden Classic, saw the Aztecs have a dreadful shooting effort as they made only 32.1% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 17 from three-point range. At halftime, they had just 15 points, their lowest scoring 1H since a game vs. Air Force back in January of 2019. Now I’m not going to make the case that The Beach can play defense like USC does. The Trojans are a Top 25 team. But take note that SDSU also barely survived games against inferior sides Arizona State and UT Arlington, winning those by a combined eight points. 

The key to this game will be LBSU speeding up the tempo. They play at one of the quickest paces in the country, averaging 76 possessions per game. Junior Joel Murray leads The Beach in scoring and has averaged 16.6 points over the L5 games. Three seniors have combined to average 43% of the team’s points this year. San Diego State, who plays at a very slow pace, has seen its leading scorer (Matt Bradley) go just 3 for 14 from three-point range in the L3 games. Take the points. 10* Long Beach State

8* Grand Canyon (10:00 ET): The Antelopes of Grand Canyon University face their second West Coast Conference opponent in three days here. Back on Saturday, they edged Pepperdine 59-56 but did not cover the number as 3.5 point favorites. This time GCU is an underdog as it heads to Loyola Marymount. It will be the first time this season that GCU is an underdog. They have a 5-1 SU record with the lone loss coming by seven (at home) to Wyoming. I think they’re the better team here, so take the points. 

Loyola Marymount is 4-2 SU. They lost the opener 75-64 (as seven-point favorites) to UT Chattanooga. The other loss was less surprising, as it came against Florida State, but it was a humbling defeat as the Lions went down 73-45 as 6.5-point dogs. Since that loss to FSU, LMU has defeated SMU (as a 3.5-point dog) and Prairie View A&M. The game vs. PV A&M was closer than expected (as in decided by three points) as LMU came in as 13.5-point chalk for that game. So they are just 1-2 ATS as favorites thus far and have just one win by greater than seven points.

Loyola Marymount actually trailed Prairie View A&M, a winless team, at the half on Saturday. They were very fortunate to get to the charity stripe 36 times as they converted 32 of those FT attempts. Without that, they probably would have lost the game. That Grand Canyon was able to win its last game, despite going 5 of 19 from three-point range, is a positive sign as I anticipate they’ll shoot a lot better tonight. When the Antelopes faced PV A&M earlier in the season, they won by 27. GCU has also held four of its six opponents below 60 points. 8* Grand Canyon

8* Illinois (9:00 ET): It might seem like an ideal time to fade the Fighting Illini, as they are coming off a very narrow win over UT Rio Grande Valley and have multiple players either injured or sick. But they still have Kofi Cockburn, who carried them against UTRGV with a career-high 38 points. Sometimes all you need is that one great player and Cockburn is definitely one of the best in the entire country this season. Despite their uneven start to the year, I think the Illini are going to take care of business here vs. Notre Dame in the opening day of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. 

Notre Dame just played in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year. The Fighting Irish lost two of their three games in the desert, the one win coming against D-II Chaminade. They are now 0-4 ATS on the season as the final game of the tournament saw them blow a 10-point halftime lead against Texas A&M and lose 73-67 as 3.5-point favorites. That was a tough stretch of three games in three days for the Irish and while they’ve had the last four days off, I don’t think they’re ready for their first Top 25 opponent of the young season. 

Illinois is 0-4 ATS its last four games, including two outright losses, but I like the short number here in what is a favorable matchup. Cockburn and teammate Alfonso Plummer both went for 30+ against UTRGV, marking the first time since 1990 Illinois had two players go for 30+ in the same game. Notre Dame doesn’t defend well as opponents are making 42.7% from three-point range against them. And with Cockburn, the Illini should also be able to dominate down low. Lay the points. 8* Illinois

10* Utah (9:30 ET): Two 5-0 teams meet in Salt Lake City tonight with Utah hosting rival BYU. Brigham Young is ranked (#18), but that’s basically based on one win - an admittedly impressive 81-49 thrashing of Oregon. But I told you to fade this team earlier in the week and sure enough they failed to cover the spread against Texas Southern. Here, the Cougars won’t enjoy the same kind of size advantage they had in their last game. I look for Utah to hand them their first loss of the year.

The Utes don’t have a marquee win like BYU does, but four of their five wins have been by double digits. In addition to having the home court advantage, the schedule sets up nicely for Utah, who has not played since Sunday when they beat Tulsa 72-58 in Daytona Beach. That was a game they controlled start to finish. 

This is BYU’s first “true” road game of the season. Utah is 23-7 SU its last 30 home games and is looking to avenge an 18-point loss in Provo from last season. These teams have a very similar statistical profile with Utah having slight edges in both PPG allowed and FG% defense. In the end, it boils down to the home court edge, more rest and revenge. 10* Utah

8* Cincinnati (2:00 ET): Cincinnati returns home after playing two tough opponents in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. One of the games went well as the Bearcats upset #14 Illinois, rallying back from a 15-point deficit to win by 20 (as 9.5-point underdogs). But the next day saw them “run out of gas” in a 73-67 loss (as 5-point underdogs) to #13 Arkansas. The Bearcats are hosting Monmouth on Saturday, an opponent they should blowout. Cincy has won its first four home games by an average of 21 points. 

Monmouth is 5-0 ATS with its only SU loss coming by two in the opener against Charlotte. Since that opening loss, the Hawks have beaten Towson, Lehigh, St. Joe’s and Princeton. So this will be a big step up in class and the first of six consecutive road games over the next 2+ weeks. The Hawks should be no stranger to the road at this point; three of their first five games were played away from home. But this one will be - by far - the toughest. Monmouth lost roughly half of its offensive production from last season. 

I know that there’s the risk of this being a “flat spot” for the favorite, who is coming off B2B games against Top 15 opponents. But being off a loss, their first of the 2021-22 season, should have Cincinnati properly motivated in this one. The Bearcats are playing outstanding defense thus far, holding teams to just 33.9% shooting overall and 24% from three-point range. Monmouth isn’t going to cover every game and this feels like the spot where their ATS win streak comes to crashing halt. 8* Cincinnati

10* Penn State (7:00 ET): LSU has shot up the power rankings, thanks to an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS start where they are outscoring the opposition by 34.4 points per game. To put things in perspective, that’s a wider average margin of victory than #1 Gonzaga. But the Tigers have also yet to play anybody from a “power conference.” They’ve faced LA Monroe, Texas State, Liberty, McNeese State and Belmont so far. Of those five teams, only Belmont would rank in the top 150 nationally. So don’t be surprised to see the Tigers tested on Friday. I look for this to be their first ATS loss of the young season. Take the points. 

Penn State is 3-1, but at the opposite end of the spectrum (from LSU) when it comes to the point spread as their ATS record is 0-4. Early in the season, the Nittany Lions suffered a rather shocking 81-56 defeat at the hands of UMass, which obviously has affected their own power rating. But since that loss (where they were four-point road favorites), PSU has won B2B games, beating both St. Francis NY and Cornell by double digits. Now those aren’t exactly the most impressive of opponents either, but the Nittany Lions did tie a program-record with 15 made three-pointers against Cornell on Monday. 

This game is being played in Florida as part of a Holiday Tournament. It’s the first time Penn State is an underdog this season. Obviously, I’m not shocked by that. But with the Nittany Lions at 0-4 ATS and LSU at 5-0 ATS, I believe we’re getting a solid value on the dog here. PSU has three double digit scorers, two of which (Lundy and Sessoms) combined to make 11 of those 15 threes in the last game. With LSU yet to play a “real opponent” and this also being their first game away from Baton Rouge, it will be interesting to see how they respond to what figures to be a close game. 10* Penn State

10* Towson (9:30 ET): This game is part of the Las Vegas Invitational, which is a four-team tournament involving UAB, New Mexico, San Francisco and Towson. Not exactly the most compelling field, but we do have an undefeated San Francisco team that’s 6-0 SU. The Dons have been quite active thus far, but despite their perfect SU record, they are just 2-4 ATS with two wins coming by five points or less. This will be the first time they’ve left home this season and I’m going to take the points in what should be a challenging game for them. 

Towson comes in with a 3-2 SU record, but they are 4-1 ATS. Both SU losses were by single digits. One was to Monmouth, which was a surprise as the Tigers were 3.5 point home favorites for that game. The other was at Pittsburgh, a more impressive showing as they covered as six-point underdogs. After losing to Pitt 63-59, Towson quickly rebounded by shooting 51% in a 76-61 win over Penn two nights ago. That loss to Pitt is the only game where the Tigers didn’t top 70 points. 

These teams met last year on Thanksgiving Day with USF emerging victorious 79-68 at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. I’m looking for a closer battle this year. Both teams have done an exceptionally good job at defending the three-point line thus far. The thing is, I expect Towson to shoot better from distance in this game. That may sound strange considering they are just 27.5% from behind the arc through five games. But that percentage is bound to improve. They were just 4 of 17 vs. Penn (on 3PA) and still scored 76 points. 10* Towson

8* North Texas (2:30 ET): 4th ranked Kansas should be considered the favorite here in the ESPN Invitational, which takes place in Kissimmee, FL. The only other ranked team in the field is #10 Alabama. But don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks struggle a bit in this first round matchup with stingy North Texas. The Jayhawks have not played in a week, so there may be some rust. There are also changes to the rotation with Jalen Wilson set to return from a suspension and two players injured. Bottom line: I’m taking the points in this Thanksgiving Day matchup. 

North Texas is actually 7th in the country in points allowed (52.7 per game). The Mean Green really whipped TX-Arlington in its last game, winning 64-36. It was 26-3 out of the gate and they allowed just 12 points in the first half. Now, an earlier loss to Buffalo and B2B games with 35% shooting is a bit of concern when facing Kansas. But I expect the Mean Green to shoot a little bit better in this one. This is a team that’s gone 6-1 ATS its L7 neutral site games. 

But it’ll be the North Texas defense that’s the key to this one. I don’t see Kansas scoring 87 points here as they have in each of their first three games. While the margins of victory continue to grow for Bill Self’s team and they are off a 29-point win over Stony Brook, the Jayhawks are just 5-14 ATS their L19 games coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. They were actually trailing Stony Brook with seven minutes to go in the first half. This is Kansas’ toughest opponent since the opener. 8* North Texas

10* Texas Southern (9:00 ET): BYU is ranked #18, basically on the strength of one win - a shocking 81-49 demolition of then-#12 Oregon. Now that’s an impressive win (especially considering it came in Portland). But the Ducks were overrated going into that game according to my power ratings. Now BYU is too. The Cougars are not #18 in my power ratings, nor are they even in the Top 25. In fact, they barely crack the Top 35. With them laying a big number Wednesday night, it seems like an opportune time to fade.

Texas Southern is the opponent. While winless at 0-5 SU, the Tigers are 4-1 against the spread. All five games have been on the road, just like this one and next seven they’ll play! That is an insane start to the season. But so far the Tigers have been game. Four of the losses have been by single digits and they’ve played at multiple big-time schools, including NC State, Washington & St. Mary’s. Critics will point to a 17-point loss at Oregon just because BYU schooled the Ducks, but I think that’s unfair. 

TX Southern had to go to Eugene to face Oregon, rather than get them at the “neutral setting” of Portland. Remember that this is a team that was in the NCAA Tournament a year ago and won a “First Four” game. They led NC State at halftime on Sunday. This is a program on a 44-23 ATS run when facing teams with a winning record. BYU heads to Utah this weekend, so this very much has the makings of a “lookahead” spot for them. Prior to beating Oregon, the Cougars first two wins were both by 10 points or less. My number say this spread should be several points lower. 10* Texas Southern 

8* UCLA (10:00 ET): Who could forget the game these teams played last April in Indianapolis? Jalen Suggs’ 37-foot buzzer beater in overtime gave Gonzaga a 93-90 victory and sent them to the National Championship Game against Baylor. Of course, things did not end well for the Zags. They lost to Baylor, ending what had been a perfect season to that point. Now UCLA gets its chance for revenge. The Bruins were not just an 11-seed in last season’s tournament, but also relegated to the “First Four.” Now they are ranked as the #2 team in the entire country. 

Gonzaga is #1, but is not as strong as the team that won its first 31 games last year. Suggs is gone as are two other starters from the 31-1 team. Mark Few has reloaded in Spokane, but this is a tricky early season matchup. I know that the Zags had no problem winning last night as they crushed Central Michigan 107-54 as 34-point favorites. That was their fifth straight double digit win to open the season and four of those have come by 27 or more points. The one exception was when Zags defeated Texas (who is currently #8 in the poll) by 12. Still, I think this is too many points to lay in such a high-profile encounter that’s taking place in a neutral setting (Las Vegas). 

As this is a tournament, UCLA also played yesterday. They defeated Bellarmine 75-62, but did not cover the 22.5-point spread. While that obviously wasn’t as impressive as the Zags’ win, the Bruins got to play their game earlier in the day, so they have had a few extra hours of rest compared to Gonzaga. All but one of UCLA’s wins this season (a 9-point win over Villanova) have been by double digits so far. As the revenge-minded squad, they come in more motivated and with them also having more returning experience from last season, I’ll gladly take the points. 8* UCLA

10* Kansas State (9:30 ET): Arkansas is yet another team that my own personal power ratings do not believe should be in the Top 25. The Razorbacks are 3-0, so give them credit for that, but they are 1-2 ATS with the lone cover coming last time out in a 93-80 win over Northern Iowa. Even that game, which took place last Wednesday, was close as the teams exchanged the lead 18 times and the Hogs were only up one (79-78) with under three minutes remaining. I think it’s a good idea to take the points here. 

A major area of concern right now for Arkansas is that they are one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three-point line. They let Northern Iowa sink 17 of 37 attempts, so the first three opponents are hitting 43.4% from behind the arc. Kansas State happens to be shooting a very similar percentage from three-point range as the Wildcats are 2-0, having beaten Florida A&M and Nebraska-Omaha. Despite winning those games by a combined 25 points, KSU is 0-2 ATS. But here, we obviously don’t need to worry about laying points. 

Though this is technically a neutral site game in Kansas City, part of the Hall of Fame Classic, I think there’s a bit of an edge towards Kansas State in terms of the venue. There is also a lot of turnover on the Arkansas roster compared to last season. I don’t think they can count on Miami FL transfer Chris Lykes scoring 26 points (a career-high) again, like he did vs. Northern Iowa. Kansas State is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as a neutral site underdog. 10* Kansas State

8* Seton Hall (6:00 ET): Seton Hall has a shot at knocking off the Big 10’s two “blueblood” programs in consecutive games. I really like their chances of accomplishing this feat. Going into last Tuesday’s game at Michigan, I made it pretty clear that I consider the Pirates to be one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. I had them plus the points (+8) on the road against the Wolverines and sure enough, they delivered the outright upset, winning 67-65. My power rankings say Seton Hall is a Top 10 team in the country right now, so I will again take them here (laying a short number) vs. Ohio State.

Those same power rankings are NOT as bullish on Ohio State. Therefore, it was NOT a shock to see the Buckeyes go down 71-65 at Xavier last Thursday. Currently ranked #19 in the polls, OSU is likely to drop out when the new rankings are released. Again, my power ratings didn’t even consider them a Top 25 team in the first place. This is now a team that’s 1-3 ATS on the year and barely escaped Akron in the season opener, winning by just one point. Don’t forget that the Buckeyes were eliminated in the Opening Round of the NCAA Tournament last March, by 15-seed Oral Roberts. 

Due to the pandemic, OSU had not played a “true” road game in front of fans since the 2019-2020 season. It was not a good sign that they never led against Xavier. This game is being played in Fort Meyers, FL, part of a tournament, and I think it’s clear who the better team is at this point. Seton Hall is deep (plays 10 guys) and believes it is one of the best teams in the country. With them holding their first three opponents to 31.4% shooting, including 13.3% (!) from three-point range, I strongly believe in them as well. 8* Seton Hall

10* Arizona (9:30 ET): While Arizona turned out NOT to be a winning bet Friday night (they won, but failed to cover), my point that they are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now still stands. They are now 4-0 after beating Wichita State in overtime on Friday. In the second half of that game, it seemed like they were headed for a fourth straight cover (up double digits) but wilted down the stretch and allowed the Shockers to tie them and force OT. The Wildcats then scored the first nine points of the extra session before again allowing their opponents to get close.

Michigan rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season, beating UNLV late Saturday night 74-61 as 12-point favorites. But remember I successfully faded the Wolverines earlier in the week, when they lost outright (as eight-point favorites) to Seton Hall. Right now, I’d say Seton Hall and Arizona are my two most underrated teams in the country, so it’s some tough early scheduling for the Maize and Blue. I think that the #4 team in the country is about to suffer its second loss of the season. 

Arizona came into the Wichita State game ranked #1 in the country in effective field goal % defense and two-point FG% allowed. Sure enough, the Shockers did not shoot the ball well at all (33.8% overall, including 15 of 41 on 2-pt attempts!). But the problem is the Wildcats struggled from three-point range, sinking only 5 of 27 attempts from beyond the arc. I look for a team that’s scored 82 or more in every game to be better from distance tonight and upset the favored Wolverines. Take the points. 10* Arizona

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): A pair of 3-0 teams meet tonight in Vegas with Wichita State taking on Arizona. The underdog Shockers have done a good job defensively in the early going, giving up just 55.3 points per contest. However, two of their wins (Jacksonville State, South Alabama) have been by six points or less, so they’re struggling to score. Even in their biggest win to date, 65-51 over Tarleton State on Tuesday, they weren’t exactly “efficient” on offense. That’s a problem when facing Arizona.

The Wildcats come in averaging 94 PPG and have scored 81 or more in every game. Their wins have come against Northern Arizona, UTRGV and North Dakota State. The closest any of those three opponents came was within 29 points. So it’s been a very impressive start in Tucson and my power ratings are INCREDIBLY high on them. And that’s for good reason. Right now, they rank 1st in the entire NCAA in effective field goal percentage allowed and two-point FG% allowed. 

I know that Wichita State is likely to get back Tyson Etienne, one of its best players, who missed the Tarleton State game. But with Etienne in the lineup the team struggled somewhat in the first two games. I just don’t see Wichita State having the requisite amount of offense to “hang” here with Arizona, who has been just incredible at the defensive end as well. I know that earlier in the week I said that Seton Hall might be the most underrated team in the country right now, but Arizona might be even more underrated! 8* Arizona

10* Georgia (9:00 ET): We’ve got a matchup of 2-1 teams from the Peach State on Friday with Georgia hosting Georgia Tech. Of the two records, Georgia Tech’s is more disappointing as the Yellow Jackets have been favored in every game. They lost their season opener, 72-69 to Miami (OH), after missing their last six shots of the game. Being upset early in the season is nothing new for Ga Tech as they’ve previously gone down to the likes of Grambling, Wofford and Gardner-Webb in recent years. 

Since then, it’s been a pair of blowout victories for the Yellow Jackets, 77-52 over Stetson and 75-66 over Lamar. But take note it was a four-point game with Lamar in the 2H on Monday. Though it’s not a long trip to Athens, this will be Ga Tech’s first “true” road game of the season. Georgia’s loss came at Cincinnati, so they’re 2-0 SU at home with the wins coming against Florida International and South Carolina State. It was a 16-point win over SC State on Tuesday, though that wasn’t enough to cover the spread (-21.5). 

I think that Georgia Tech is still getting too much “residual credit” for winning the ACC Tournament last season. Multiple players from that team departed and this group is simply not as strong, especially with two players listed as questionable for tonight. Georgia has captured each of the L5 meetings between the teams (did not play last season) and I like them as a home dog here as my power ratings give the Yellow Jackets no real edge after factoring in the home court advantage. Take the points. 10* Georgia

10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): I’m a bit shocked by this pointspread as Missouri is coming off a terrible 80-66 loss (as 11-point favorites) to UMKC. The Tigers trailed by as many as 22 points in that game and only briefly led at the outset. They shot a woeful 4 for 14 from “downtown” (three-point range), missed 10 of 24 free throws and turned the ball over 18 times. Obviously, that loss should have Mizzou motivated coming into tonight, but covering the double digit spread is something I just do not see happening. 

Northern Illinois has already pulled one upset this season. In their season opener, they went across the country to Washington and won 71-64 as a 20-point underdog. Predictably, NIU came back “down to Earth” in the next game when it visited Indiana and lost 85-49. The Huskies couldn’t “hit water from a boat” in that one, making just 30.4% of their field goal attempts, including just 2 of 11 from three-point range. So they too should be in line for an improved effort tonight. 

Missouri wasn’t all that impressive in its opening game when it defeated Central Michigan 78-68 as a 16-point favorite. Having already failed twice as DD chalk, it’s difficult for me to understand why the oddsmakers have the Tigers laying so many points yet again. Especially with two players potentially out, one of them Jarron Coleman, who is a double digit scorer. Northern Illinois has done a solid job at getting to the free throw line thus far, averaging 26 attempts per game. Mizzou has now failed to cover six straight games, going back to last season. 10* Northern Illinois

8* Boise State (2:00 ET): The analysis for this matchup, which is a neutral site game in Charleston, SC, should sound “eerily familiar” to last night’s play on George Mason against Maryland. Once again, we’ve got a ranked team that has been less than stellar in the opening week of the season and my power ratings aren’t as high on them as the pollsters are. Yesterday, I talked about how Maryland had been “playing with fire” in its first few games, falling behind early only to pull out the win in the second half. Well, they lost. Don’t be surprised if the same thing happens to St. Bonaventure on Thursday. 

The 22nd ranked Bonnies are 2-0, but haven’t been all that impressive in either game. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that opening game with Siena. St. Bonaventure trailed for most of the first half and was only up by four going into the break. Things were even “scarier” Sunday against Canisius as the Bonnies were down nine with just 14 minutes left. Down the stretch, they turned things on defensively and were able to pull off a 69-60 win. But they did not come close to covering as they were 20.5-point favorites. Heading into their first game away from home, the Bonnies are outside the top 35 in my power ratings (same as Maryland yday). 

Boise State is coming off a 58-50 loss at UC Irvine. As you can tell from that score, the Broncos really struggled to make shots in that one, finishing at just 32.2% overall including a dreadful 3 of 22 from three-point range. At the same time, they allowed the Anteaters to make six of their nine 3PA. I anticipate the Broncos will shoot much better in this game, perhaps similar to the 51.6 FG% we saw in the opener vs. Utah Valley State. St. Bonaventure could be without A-10 Defensive POY Osun Osunniyi, who injured his back against Canisius. Take the points. 8* Boise State

8* Little Rock (10:00 ET): Little Rock will be looking for a perfect 4-0 start to the season tonight when they hit the West Coast to face Loyola Marymount. Obviously, the oddsmakers don’t like the Trojans’ chances here. But this seems like an awfully high number given the respective starts to the season by the two teams involved. Loyola Marymount is only 1-1 SU and lost outright (as 7-point favorites) in their only game against a D-I opponent (the opener vs. Chattanooga). Seems like an opportune time to grab the points. 

Little Rock’s season began with an outright upset as they went to Carbondale and beat Southern Illinois 69-66 as a 6.5-point dog. Since that time, the Trojans have faced a couple of non-board teams (Champion Christian College and Arkansas Baptist) and blew both opponents out, winning 115-51 and 91-60. Obviously, not a ton can be ascertained from those victories, but the fact Little Rock has already gone on the road and won as an underdog definitely sticks out to me. They should enter tonight’s game as a confident bunch. 

Not only did Loyola Marymount lose its opener to Chattanooga, but they could barely get by a non-board team (Arizona Christian) on Saturday, winning only 74-67. So you’ve got a Little Rock team that’s already recorded one upset on the road and then blown out two non-board teams taking on a LMU team that has already lost once outright as a home favorite and could barely get by a non-board team. Plus we’re getting double digits here. Thank you very much! 8* Little Rock

10* Mississippi State (8:00 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be a “step slow” in accounting for the respective starts of the two teams here. Mississippi State is 2-0 SU/ATS with blowout wins over North Alabama (75-49) and Montana (86-49). The Bulldogs were DD favorites in both games and obviously had little difficulty covering the spread. Per my own power ratings, this number should be north of -20 as MSU welcomes a struggling Detroit side to Starkville. Lay the points. 

Detroit’s early season schedule is nothing short of insane. They will play their first nine games on the road and this trip takes them all over the country and to the Bahamas. So far the Titans have lost at Wyoming (85-47) and Toledo (81-73). Their best player is Antoine Davis, the coach’s son, but despite a combined 37 points in the first two games he’s only shooting 35.9% overall including 3 of 14 from three-point range. Defensively, this team obviously has its issues having given up an average of 83 PPG so far. 

Making matters worse for the Titans here is that it’s looking probable that Miss State will have Rocket Watts in the lineup tonight. A transfer from Michigan State, Watts had hip surgery in June and has missed the first two games. The Bulldogs certainly didn’t need him as they won by a combined 63 points and this figures to be a third straight blowout win for them as they’ve got six players averaging at least nine points per game. They are 15th in the country in 3-point shooting (46.3%) and led 42-16 at halftime in their last game. 10* Mississippi State

8* George Mason (7:00 ET): I “learned my lesson” with Maryland last week when I made the mistake of laying the points with them against George Washington. They couldn’t come close to covering the 17-point spread and actually trailed at the half. Falling behind seems to be a problem for the Terrapins as they also trailed Vermont at halftime over the weekend. So while they’re now 3-0 SU and ranked #20 in the country, the Terps sure seem like an overrated side to me. I’ll fade them as DD favorites here on Wednesday. 

George Mason also comes into this game at 3-0 SU. While they’ve faced lesser competition, the Patriots haven’t had nearly the kind of close calls Maryland has. All three GMU victories thus far have been by at least 21 points and the average margin of victory is 26.7 PPG. They are 3-0 ATS. On Sunday, they held Morgan State to 34% shooting (7 of 24 from 3-pt range) in a dominant 90-53 effort, their biggest win to date. George Mason’s best player is Josh Oduro, who is averaging 19.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game so far. As a team, the Patriots are shooting 40.5% from three-point range. 

After trailing at the half in B2B games, Maryland seems ripe to be upset. They’ve yet to win a game by more than 14 points and against Vermont they were down seven in the second half. James Graham III remains suspended for this game. I know GMU is 0-9 SU all-time vs. Maryland, but this year’s team is averaging 83.7 PPG so far (2nd most among A-10 teams) and seems primed for a breakout under 1st year HC Kim English. My own power ratings don’t have Maryland in the Top 35. Take the points. 8* George Mason

8* Seton Hall (9:00 ET): So my own power rankings very much agree that Michigan is a top four team in the country. But those same rankings also LOVE Seton Hall, calling them a Top 10 team as well. So I’m going to go ahead and grab the points here in what is a rematch of the 1989 NCAA Title Game. They’ve only met one time since - eight months later - which was before current Wolverines HC Juwan Howard even showed up to play at his alma mater. Expect a great game here as Michigan should be on “upset alert.” 

Beating Yale may not seem like a big deal, but the way Seton Hall did it on Sunday was quite impressive. The Pirates crushed the Ivy League favorites, winning 80-44 as 11.5-point chalk. No one played more than 22 minutes as the Pirates dominated the glass (53-37 rebounding edge) and held Yale to 24.2% shooting. In both games this season, Seton Hall has held the opponent below 50 points and 30% shooting. This is a deep team that believes in itself. Jared Rhoden said they are “one of the best teams in the country” and I agree! 

Michigan had a closer than expected win over Buffalo in the season opener, 88-76, just barely missing out on covering the number. Then they routed Prairie View A&M (as expected) 77-49 as 23.5-point favorites. That game was played in D.C. over the weekend. While I respect the Wolverines, this is just too many points to be laying against an underrated Seton Hall team that I expect to make a lot of “noise” nationally. The Pirates are 36-16 ATS L52 as a road underdog. 8* Seton Hall

10* Charleston (8:30 ET): While the pollsters have North Carolina in the Top 20, I do not. The Tar Heels are off to a 2-0 SU start, but they’ve hardly been impressive in doing so, failing to cover the spread against both Loyola MD and Brown. Hubert Davis’ team is not playing good defense as they allowed Brown to score 87 points, including 50 in the first half! That game very much came down to the wire as UNC only led by three points in the final two minutes. Laying this many points with the Tar Heels in the first road game of the season seems like a bad idea. 

Charleston is 3-0. They too have a win over Loyola MD, theirs coming this past weekend by a score of 79-72. While the Cougars did not cover the spread (they were -9.5), they led the entire game and by as many as 17 points in the first half. This is a veteran team with four seniors accounting for 46% of the offensive production thus far. Through three games, the Cougars are averaging 90.3 PPG (2nd most among CAA teams) and that seems like a problem for a North Carolina team that isn’t playing good defense at the start of the season. 

The thing is, Charleston hasn’t even shot that well and they are still scoring a lot of points. Each of the last two games, the Cougars have shot worse than 40% from the field. North Carolina has shot better than 50% in each of its two games, yet still is 0-2 ATS. Both teams have first year head coaches. It remains to be seen how the unproven Davis can fill the shoes of the legendary Roy Williams in Chapel Hill. Meanwhile, Charleston hired Pat Kelsey away from Winthrop and he brings an up-tempo attack that should keep the road favorite on its heels. Take the points. 10* Charleston

10* Penn State (7:00 ET): I was a little surprised to see this line open up so low. I know that Penn State is not exactly the most formidable Big 10 team, but they are certainly a lot better than UMass at this stage of the game. While the Nittany Lions failed to cover the spread in their opener, they still won by 16 (as a 17-point favorite). UMass won by a similar score in its season opener (77-60 over MD-Balt County) as a 10-point favorite, but then went to Yale and got crushed by 20 in a game they were favored to win. 

PSU has a new head coach for 2021-22. His name is Micah Shrewsberry, who was previously an assistant under Brad Stevens at both Butler and with the Celtics in the NBA. Shrewsberry inherits a fairly experienced squad, one that underperformed last year under an interim coach. (Former HC Pat Chambers was forced to resign last October due to conduct. I think the Nittany Lions are going to be an improved squad this year. They shot 51.7% against Youngstown State last Wednesday. 

UMass lost its leading scorer from LY to the transfer portal. So they figure to take a step back. COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the Minutemen’s schedule in 2020-21, so playing three games in a week is something they haven’t done in quite some time. They were shredded by Yale, giving up 91 points. It won’t be any easier here against an opponent that shot well in its first game and comes in with more rest. Lay the points. 10* Penn State

8* Texas (10:30 ET): We’ve got ourselves a top five matchup in College Basketball in the very first week of the season. Gonzaga, whose only loss since the start of last year came in the National Championship Game (to Baylor), will host Texas. The Zags - not surprisingly - entered 2021-22 as the top ranked team in the country yet again. They’ve brought in some exciting newcomers to help fill the void left by a lot of departing talent. But this Texas team is very much “for real” as 1st year HC Chris Beard brought in a ridiculous amount of talent to Austin. I’m taking the points in this one. 

Texas won its season opener 92-48 over Houston Baptist. That the Longhorns won was obviously not a surprise, but it is impressive that they covered the huge 37.5 point spread. Beard has SEVEN transfers with D-I experience and most came from “name” schools. Beard was obviously very successful at Texas Tech and I expect similar results here at his alma mater. Texas shot 62% from the field in its opening game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. This figures to be one of the few times they are underdogs in a game this season. 

Gonzaga led the country in scoring last year and will probably be one of the most prolific scoring teams again in 2021-22. But, it may take time for this team to get on the same page. HC Mark Few missed the opener as he was serving a one-game suspension for DUI. The Zags still won comfortably without their coach - 97-63 over Dixie State - but did not cover the 39.5 point spread. I think there’s a real shot the Bulldogs may LOSE this game (outright!) so taking the points is a “no brainer” to me. Texas is 20-8 ATS its L28 games as a road underdog. 8* Texas

8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): The spread has jumped the fence for this matchup. Louisiana now finds itself favored, on the road, after beating West Florida (non-board team) 81-47 on Tuesday. Southern Miss won in similar fashion against a lackluster opponent (William Carey), 81-67. It’s interesting that the line has flipped, which may have something to do with the fact the Ragin Cajuns are looking to end a four-game losing streak to Southern Miss. I think the line move is justified and will back the visitors in this one. 

Louisiana never trailed against West Florida as they jumped out to a 17-4 lead after six minutes. The lead grew to as large as 42 in the second half. While it was not a formidable opponent that they were up against, the Ragin Cajuns winning in blowout fashion seems a little more impressive when you consider they made only 8 of 29 three-point attempts and went 5 of 11 from the free throw line. I expect those numbers to go way up tonight. Eight players scored at least seven points, so this is a deep team. 

Southern Miss also had a big second half lead on Tuesday, but the difference between them and Louisiana is that they could not maintain it. The Golden Eagles are not that deep as five players combined to score all but five of their points in the opener. It was a 30-point night from Tae Hardy, which probably can’t be counted on here. My power rankings call Louisiana the better team here, so this looks to be a simple case of the oddsmakers setting a bad line. Let’s take advantage of that mistake. 8* UL Lafayette

10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana (7:00 ET): Both teams started their respective 2021-22 seasons with an Under. Now, the fact Northern Illinois’ first game stayed Under was NOT the biggest takeaway, as the Huskies pulled a HUGE upset over Washington, winning 71-64 as 20-point underdogs. Indiana won much closer than expected against Eastern Michigan, 68-62 as 24.5-point favorites. 

The Hoosiers were up by 20 in the second half, but quickly let that lead slip away and found themselves ahead by just one point with 2:46 to go. I know there are some concerns about “offensive consistency” under new HC Mike Woodson, but you’ve got to expect IU will shoot better from three-point range tonight compared to the 4 of 24 effort we saw in the opener. It’s the defense that I think is likely to regress on Friday. The Hoosiers held Eastern Michigan to a 31.3 FG% and without a field goal for the first 7 ½ minutes of the game. 

Tonight’s MAC opponent shot a blistering 52.3% from behind the arc in its upset win in Seattle. Now, will they match that number tonight in Bloomington? Probably not. But they also aren’t going to watch their opponent go 3 for 18 from behind the arc like Washington did. This is a lower O/U than either team faced in its respective opener. Indiana had previously been 8-1 to the Over against MAC teams. They’ve gone Under their last five games overall, dating back to the end of last season. That streak ends here. 10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana

analysis soon

8* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Terrapins are ranked #21 in the country at the start of the new College Basketball season. They opened the season with a fairly comfortable 83-69 win over Quinnipiac on Tuesday. Though they did not cover the large 23.5-point spread in that game, they were up big most of the way. It was 41-25 at halftime and the lead grew to as big as 25 points in the second half. Quinnipiac went on a 9-2 run over the final four minutes to steal the cover though. While that’s always a concern when laying a big number, expect the Terps to leave with the cash tonight against George Washington. 

GW has a LOT of new faces entering the 2021-22 season. There are NINE new transfers on the squad, more than any other team in the country. Only ONE player is left from last season, the first under HC Jamion Christian. So I expect there to be lots of “growing pains” for the Colonials early on. They barely snuck by St. Francis (PA) on Tuesday, winning only 75-72 as seven-point chalk. That’s despite the fact St. Francis shot only 1 of 9 from three-point range in the game. It’s obviously a big step up in class for GW here tonight and I don’t think they’re ready for it.

Maryland has plenty of size, which should give GW all sorts of problems in this one. The Terrapins also have plenty of depth. “We have seven starters,” said HC Mark Turgeon after Tuesday’s season opening win. GW was the worst defensive team in the Atlantic 10 a season ago and figures to struggle at that end of the floor yet again as all the new pieces try and come together. The Colonials have covered just one of their last five games as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. That trend continues in this one. 8* Maryland

8* Idaho (9:00 ET): So this spread appears to be WAY off as my own power ratings say the home team should be slightly favored. Long Beach State isn’t even a top 300 team, so the idea of them laying the points (especially this many) on the road seems dicey at best. The Beach were a 6-12 SU team last season and missed a ton of action due to COVID-19. Once a proud program, LBSU has now had five consecutive losing seasons under HC Dan Monson. 

Now I’m well aware that Idaho went 1-21 SU last year. That’s obviously really bad. The top two scorers from LY are gone, but it’s not like they made much of a difference. I understand that people are going to look at the Vandals’ 2020-21 record and give them no shot here. But this team is going to be better this season. HC Zac Claus knows that this is one the more winnable games for his team. 

Again, I’m going to put faith in my power rankings, which basically call this a ‘pick em type game. LBSU may be looking forward to a game with UCLA over the weekend. For Idaho, this game will have their full attention. The Vandals did end last season on a 3-0 ATS run. They had five losses by six points or less. Expect them to be competitive in this first game of the season. 8* Idaho

10* Portland State (10:30 ET): Oregon State was an Elite Eight team last March. The Beavers, as a 12-seed, shockingly made it to the end of the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend before bowing out at the hands of Houston. They were also one of the country’s best ATS teams, finishing the year 23-8-1 at the betting window. That’s one of the reasons I’ll be looking to fade them in the 2021-22 season opener. Another is that they have seven first-year scholarship players and nine newcomers overall. 

Portland State was not really a “player” in the Big Sky Conference last year, finishing eighth in the 11-team league and making a first round exit in the Conference Tournament. The Vikings have a new head coach entering this year in Jase Coburn. While he brought in seven transfers, Coburn also has the benefit of lots of returning experience. There are eight players back from last season, four of whom started 10 or more games. I expect PSU to be much improved. 

Though Oregon State would go on to win the Pac 12 Tournament last season, they are pegged for just a fourth place finish here in 2021-22. Had they not made the run in the Conf Tourney, the Beavers would not have even made the Big Dance. Their Elite Eight appearance makes them an early season target. Portland State played the Beavers tough last season, only losing by five here in Corvallis as a 13-point underdog. OSU closing LY on a 14-1 ATS run (underdog in most games) was pretty ridiculous and I just have to fade them here. 10* Portland State

8* Under Kentucky/Duke (9:30 ET): Kentucky and Duke are each off disappointing seasons. The Wildcats were just plain bad in 2020-21, going 9-16 straight up, while the Blue Devils weren’t much better at 13-11. Neither made the NCAA Tournament.  Yet the pollsters didn’t hesitate putting both of them in the preseason top 10. That’s a little high from where I sit, but not all that egregious. I’m taking the Under on Opening Night as these two College Basketball “bluebloods” open the season in NYC as part of the State Farm Champions Classic. 

When I think Duke-Kentucky, I always think back to the all-time great game in 1991 where Christian Laettner hit his famous buzzer beater to send the Blue Devils to the Final Four. I’m a little surprised that the programs have only met three times since 2012. All were early season matchups like this one. The most recent came in 2018 with Duke winning in blowout fashion, 118-84. Needless to say, you shouldn’t expect anywhere close to that many points scored here tonight. 

Both squads have a lot of new faces. For Kentucky, that’s nothing new. Although this time Coach Cal has leaned heavily on the transfer portal. Coach K recruits just as well (if not better) than Coach Cal and four starters on this team will be freshmen. With all the new faces, I can’t see this being a high-scoring game. Kentucky averaged just 66.6 PPG vs. non-conf teams last year while giving up only 64.9. Duke isn’t going to score 70 points in this game. 8* Under Kentucky/Duke

10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga (9:20 ET): Baylor and Gonzaga were widely considered the two best teams in College Basketball all season long. So I’m glad we’ve got them matched up in Monday’s National Title Game. Unbeaten Gonzaga is the one who very nearly failed to “hold up their end of the bargain” as they needed overtime to defeat 11-seed UCLA in a game for the ages. Baylor had a much easier time Saturday as they blew out Houston 78-59, a game I’d rather not hear about again. 

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Baylor will be willing to play at Gonzaga’s preferred tempo. The Zags are 7th in the country in adjusted tempo and they lead the country in scoring at 91.6 PPG. However, they haven’t been able to hit that number in regulation in any of the L4 games. They shot 59.6% against Creighton and 58.7% against UCLA, percentages they won’t be able to match here against a longer and more athletic opponent. Baylor has held four of its five Tournament opponents to 63 points or less. That’s a very unrealistic number for this matchup, but they did hold Arkansas (who also likes to play fast) to 72 in the Elite Eight. 

This is a high total, even for Gonzaga, and certainly for a National Title Game. It should also be noted that Gonzaga held its first four Tournament opponents to 71 points or less. They are actually quite underrated defensively (8th in the country in efficiency). Baylor won’t shoot 52.7% from the field in this game like they did against Houston. This game may not stay Under by a lot, but I don’t see both teams scoring 80+ and that is likely what would be needed for an Over. 10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga

10* Houston (5:14 ET): The National Semifinal that will have more intrigue (regarding the outcome) is an all-Texas affair between Baylor (1-seed from the South Region) and Houston (2-seed from the Midwest Region). I had both teams getting here, so this matchup is not a surprise. Much will be made of the fact that Houston did not have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th in any of the first four rounds. But it would be quite foolish to undersell this squad. They have won 11 consecutive games with seven of those victories coming by a margin of 16 points or more. This will be just the second time all season the Cougars are underdogs. The first was all the way back on 11/29 vs. Texas Tech and they won that game 64-53 as three-point pups. 

Houston’s calling card remains their defense. They are #2 in the country in points per game allowed (57.6). None of the other teams in the Final Four rank higher than 62nd in PPG allowed. The Cougars are also #1 in the country in field goal percentage defense. Opponents have shot just 37.3% against them this season. In the four tournament wins, they’ve allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. There have been only two times during the 11-game win streak that they allowed more than 61 points. Both were against Memphis. Simply put, when you’re not giving up many points, more often than not you will win. In this case, Houston is GETTING points. 

The key here (for me) is that Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU/9-0-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss. They probably “should” have covered for us vs. Oregon State in the Elite 8 as they led 34-17 at halftime. But they let the lead shrink in the 2H, then allowed a “meaningless” three-pointer in the closing seconds to blow the cover. I told you to take the Cougars the last time they were off an ATS loss (this was in the Sweet 16 vs. Syracuse) and they won that game by 16 points. Coming off an ATS loss this year, UH has won all ten times by an average of 28.1 PPG! Absolutely take the points here. 10* Houston

8* Under Houston/Baylor (5:14 ET): We had the Over in Baylor’s 81-72 win over Arkansas in the Elite 8. That play cashed as it ended up being - rather easily - the Bears’ highest scoring game of the Tournament. That shouldn’t be a surprise, not because I had the Over, but rather due to the pace Arkansas plays at. The Razorbacks were a top 20 team nationally in adjusted tempo, a far cry from Baylor’s previous two opponents. Like the dispatched Wisconsin and Villanova, Houston plays at one of the slowest adjusted tempos in the country. Thus I’m pivoting to the Under for this Final Four matchup. 

It’s not just Houston’s tempo that has me on the Under here. The Cougars are #2 in the country in scoring defense (57.6 PPG allowed) and #1 in opposing FG% (37.3). The fact they’ve advanced despite not scoring more than 67 points in any of the L3 games should tell you all you need to know about their defense. In four Tournament games, the Cougars have allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. The most points they’ve given up in any of the four games is 61. The Under is 3-0 the L3 games.

Baylor is 7-2 Over its L9 games, however they allowed just 55, 63 and 51 points in the three games prior to facing Arkansas. They scored 46 points in the 1H of the Arkansas game, which is a lot, and also shot 53.3% for the game from three-point range. Don’t see them matching those kinds of numbers on Saturday, even if they are #1 in the country from three-point range. Houston is allowing just 28.3% shooting from behind the arc this season. Baylor can take solace in the fact Houston shot just 32.3% against Oregon State. Three of the Bears’ four Tourney opponents have shot worse than 28% from distance. 8* Under Houston/Baylor

10* Under UCLA/Michigan (9:57 ET): UCLA is now the lone double-digit seed (they are an 11) in the Tournament. They’ve had to win FOUR games just to get here as they were in the “First Four.” The Bruins are the first “First Four” team to reach the Elite 8 since the famous 2011 VCU team that made it all the way to the Final Four for Shaka Smart. Give them their due, but two of UCLA’s wins have come in overtime, one of those the “First Four” game (vs. Michigan State) where they trailed most of the way. They got a weak 6-seed (BYU) and then a 14-seed (Abilene Christian) in the Round of 32.

However, there was nothing “phony” at all about the way Mick Cronin’s team defeated 2-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. Yes, the game went to OT, but the Bruins did lead most of the way. I think what is interesting is the fact the game would have stayed Under if not for OT. There were only 130 total points scored in regulation before a very high scoring extra five minutes. None of UCLA’s last three games have eclipsed the 135-point mark in regulation. Michigan, a top 10 team nationally in defensive efficiency, holds teams to 65.6 PPG on 39.3% shooting for the season. 

After struggling some against LSU in the Round of 32, Michigan looked very impressive in a blowout win (76-58) over Florida State in the Sweet 16. They are 8-1 Under this season following a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Under has also gone 6-1 in their games with a total of 130 to 139.5 and is 8-2 the L10 times they’ve played with one or zero days’ rest. With UCLA playing at a bottom 20 pace (# of possessions per game) in the country, I see this ending up being a relatively low-scoring game. The Wolverines are without their second leading scorer and made only three 3-pointers vs. FSU. 10* Under UCLA/Michigan

8* USC (7:15 ET): Southern Cal promises to be the toughest test for Gonzaga (29-0 SU) this season. While the Zags do hold early season victories over the likes of Iowa and Kansas, neither of those teams play defense the way the Trojans do. Ironically, USC could have faced both Iowa and Kansas on their path to the Elite 8. But the Hawkeyes got bounced early. Kansas was USC’s 2nd round opponent and was no match as the Trojans won that game “going away” 85-51 (as 1-pt favorites) in what may have been the most impressive single-game effort I’ve seen in the Tournament thus far. 

In addition to destroying Kansas, USC has beaten 11th seeded Drake and 7-seed Oregon to get here. As I alluded to above, it has been their defense that has led the way. After watching them hold both Drake and Kansas below 30% shooting, I had no choice but to roll with the Trojans in the Sweet 16. Same as their regular season matchup against the Ducks, they rolled to a big first half lead and coasted from there. Not only did USC hold Oregon to 37.7% shooting (including 5 of 21 from 3-pt range), but they shot 57.4% themselves (10 of 14 from three). They’ve now shot better than 50% from the floor each of their L4 games.

Gonzaga is obviously the best offensive/overall team in the country, but they’ve failed to hit their season average in PPG in six of the last seven contests. The Bulldogs actually generate a very high percentage of their offense from two-pointers, which could be a problem here as USC has held opponents to 41.5% on 2PA this season, which is #1 in the country! USC has been an underdog only five times this season and never by more than +3.5. This is a lot of points for the #4 ranked defensive team in the country to be getting. The fact this is Gonzaga’s first single digit spread since December is significant. 8* USC

8* Over Arkansas/Baylor (9:57 ET): Both of these teams average more than 80 points per game and are off poor shooting efforts from three-point range. For Baylor, that’s quite atypical. The Bears lead the country in making 40.8% of their attempts from behind the arc. They were just 3 of 19 in the 62-51 win over Villanova. That was their lowest scoring game of the year (by total points) and the second fewest points scored by them in any game. When they scored a season-low 58 at Kansas on 2/27, they came back the next game and scored 94. 

It’s a similar deal with Arkansas, who averages 81.7 PPG but is off a game where they were just 1 of 9 from three-point range. The 72-70 win over Oral Roberts marked the fourth time in five games the Razorbacks were held below their season average in points per game. So they are due for a breakout effort at the offensive end of the floor. This is a pretty low total by Arkansas’ standards and Baylor is 6-2 Over its L8 games.

A team that leads the country in three-point shooting coming off a game where they shot 3 of 19 is a classic bounce back opportunity. Further improving the likelihood of Baylor scoring plenty of points tonight is the fact Arkansas was lucky to hold Oral Roberts to 8 of 31 shooting from 3-point range on Saturday. For the season, the Razorbacks have let their opponents hit 39.1% from behind the arc when away from Fayetteville. Also of note is the fact Arkansas plays at a MUCH faster tempo (17th) than either of Baylor’s previous two opponents (329 and 336). Baylor held Villanova to 3 of 17 shooting from 3-point range, a percentage the Razorbacks should easily eclipse. 8* Over Arkansas/Baylor

8* Arkansas (9:57 ET): The Razorbacks have certainly been “living dangerously” in this Tournament as they’ve won their last two games by two points each. They also trailed Colgate early in the first round. But this Elite Eight matchup with Baylor marks the first time in Tourney that the Hogs have been underdogs and I’m grabbing the points as this line has been bet up. Arkansas has a higher defensive efficiency rating compared to Baylor and I believe is due to “break out” offensively tonight. 

Arkansas averages 81.7 PPG, but they’ve gone Under in five straight while being held below that season average four times. The only time in the Tournament they exceeded their season average in points per game was against Colgate. But it will be a shock to Baylor’s system to face a team that likes to play at such a fast tempo. Per KenPom, the Razorbacks play at the 17th fastest pace in the country. Baylor’s last two opponents - Wisconsin and Villanova - were 329th and 336rd in adjusted tempo, which is as slow as it gets. 

Arkansas made just one three-pointer in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts. They average seven makes from behind the arc per game, for the season. That’s not a ton, but it’s more than one. They only attempted nine three-pointers vs. Oral Roberts, a really low number. Baylor kept Villanova to 3 of 19 in three-point shooting Saturday, a very low number. So at the same time Arkansas’ 3-point shooting is set to improve, Baylor’s three-point defense is set to regress. Expect this to be a close game. 8* Arkansas

10* Houston (7:15 ET): This “madness” (pun intended!) with Oregon State MUST come to an end. The Beavers, picked to finish LAST in their conference (Pac 12) this season, are somehow one of the final eight teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Had it not been for winning the Pac 12 Tournament, OSU wouldn’t have even qualified for the Big Dance and they are now just the second-ever 12 seed to make the Elite 8. They’ve been a covering machine as well: 6-0 ATS L6, 13-1 ATS L14 and 19-2-1 ATS L22. But I feel it all comes to an end here against a vastly superior Houston side. 

The Cougars are on the verge of their first Final Four since the Phi Slamma Jamma days of the early 80s. Incredibly, they won’t have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th to get there. Having benefited from some upsets, Kelvin Sampson’s team has beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here. I had them in the Sweet 16 as they locked in defensively and beat the Orange 62-46. They allowed a shooting percentage of just 28.0% for the game, including 21.7 from three-point range. 

Fourth in the country in defensive efficiency, those are the kind of defensive numbers I’m looking for here from the Cougars. Oregon State has been incredibly fortunate from three-point range during their six-game win streak, going 50 of 120 (41.7%) themselves while the opponents have shot just 30 for 142 (21.1%). Houston is #2 in the country in points allowed (57.5 PPG) and teams have shot just 28.0% from 3-point range against them for the season. As I said in the writeup vs. Syracuse (another team that was on a 6-0 ATS run), Houston is a team that’s been winning big. Seven of their last 10 victories have been by 16 or more points. 10* Houston

8* USC (9:45 ET): So we’ve got a matchup of conference rivals in the Sweet 16 as USC takes on Oregon. It’s been a great Tournament thus far for the Pac 12 as they placed four teams in the Sweet 16. USC is the only one favored to make it to the Elite 8, however. As you may have guessed, these teams did meet in the regular season (just once). The Trojans prevailed 72-58 and really it wasn’t even that close as they led 43-22 at the half. I think USC is the much better team here and will gladly lay the short number in the rematch. 

Oregon caught quite the break as they didn’t even have to play a 1st round game. Their scheduled opponent, VCU, was forced to withdraw due to COVID-19. The Ducks took full advantage of that “bye” by then going out and blitzing 2-seed Iowa 95-80 in an upset as 5-point underdogs. For the fourth time in the last five games, the Ducks shot better than 55% from the field (55.9%), which is remarkable. But I don’t think they’ll have that kind of “touch” here against a USC team that has held its first two Tournament opponents below 30% from the field. 

It has been two dominant efforts on the defensive end from the Trojans. They held Drake to 56 points and then Kansas to 51. For the year, their opposing FG% is 38.7, which is just fantastic. The Trojans also tend to dominate on the glass, something Oregon knows all too well as it was outrebounded 39-25 in the first meeting. Annihilating Kansas by 34 should garner more respect in the marketplace than it has as USC is very much a team that “deserves” to be in the Elite 8 as I consider them to be a top 10 team in the country. They were underseeded. 8* USC

8* Under Oregon/USC (9:45 ET): The last time an Oregon game went Under was February 22nd. The opponent was USC. The Ducks again run into their Pac 12 rival here in the Sweet 16 after going Over in eight consecutive contests. They caught a huge break last weekend as their 1st round opponent (VCU) had to withdraw due to COVID-19 protocols. Taking full advantage of the “bye,” the Ducks blitzed Iowa 95-80 in a dominant second round victory. But as we’ve seen before, scoring on USC won’t be as easy. 

The Trojans put the clamps down defensively on both Drake and Kansas last weekend. They held them both to ridiculously low shooting percentages (29.4 and 29.0 respectively) and allowed only 107 points total. Dominating efforts at the defensive end are something we’ve seen throughout the year from Andy Enfield’s team. USC opponents have shot just 38.7% for the season and Oregon was held 40.4% overall despite going 7 of 17 from three-point range. The Ducks scored only 22 first half points in that game.

Now Oregon has lost only once since that time and they’ve shot better than 55% from the field in four of their last five games, which is somewhat preposterous. Given USC’s defensive resume, I’m expecting the Ducks to “cool off” considerably on Sunday night. Nor do I expect USC to match its ridiculously hot shooting from the last game as they made an incredible 57.1% against Kansas. These teams know each other well and that familiarity should lead to a relatively low-scoring contest. Oregon’s Over streak is “due” to end and USC is 8-3 Under following a win by 20+ points. 8* Under Oregon/USC

10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga (2:15 ET): Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. They are #1 in the country in scoring at 92.1 PPG and what’s scary is that they still scored 87 on OU despite shooting below 50% (49.1) for the first time in nearly two months. 

Creighton had a close call in Round 1 (beat UCSB 63-62) before easily ousting Ohio in Round 2 (72-58). I saw Clark Kellogg on CBS say that the Bluejays were “due” to break out of their scoring slump and I concurred, a big reason why I took them against Ohio. Ironically, it was their defense that led the way in that win as the Bobcats shot just 31.8% overall and couldn’t make any outside shots. While Creighton is allowing just 60 PPG in the Tourney thus far, that’s not really indicative of “who they are” and I do expect them to struggle defensively in this matchup. 

Assuming Gonzaga can come close to its season average of 92.1 PPG, we would only need around 70 points from Creighton to send this one Over the total. Considering the Bluejays come in averaging 76.3 PPG on the year, I think they can do it. Kellogg was right; this is a team that typically shoots better than what we’ve seen so far in the Tourney. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as Gonzaga is 39-16 Over its L55 games. 10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga

8* Creighton (2:10 ET): I’m gonna “take the bait” (i.e. the points) here against #1 Gonzaga. Full disclosure - this did NOT work well when I took Norfolk State in the first round of the Tournament. But at least now we’ve got a team that has a chance to win. Not that I think Creighton will win, but I see the Bluejays keeping this one within single digits. I used them in the last round when they blew past Ohio 72-58 and really it shouldn’t have even been that close. Creighton is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, by the way. The most points they were getting in any game was +5.5 at Villanova.

Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. But, according to my current power ratings, Creighton will be the best team that the Zags have faced all season besides Iowa, whom they defeated by “only” 11 points.

My power ratings say this spread should be several points lower. The key is that Creighton can score. The Bluejays average 76.3 PPG. They really haven’t shot the ball well - so far - in the Tournament. But that can change. They have lost only two games by double digits all season. Six of the eight losses were by eight points or less, half of those by five or less. Creighton is 12-4 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for this to be “closer than the experts think” on Sunday. 8* Creighton

8* Houston (9:55 ET): One quarter of this year’s Sweet 16 are double digit seeds and two of those four teams reside in the Midwest Region. Both are from P5 conferences, so these aren’t “Cinderellas” in the true sense of the term. That said, I certainly did not expect to see Syracuse still standing at this juncture of the Tournament. The Orange have upset 6-seed San Diego State and 3-seed West Virginia to get here and are on a 6-0 ATS run, the lone SU loss in that stretch coming by three points to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. 

Houston was my pick to come out of this region, so I’m not at all surprised to see them still playing. With the top seed in the Midwest (Illinois) out, I think you’ve got to make the Cougars the favorites to move on to the Final Four. They certainly made it look easy in the first round when they absolutely buried Cleveland State 87-56 (were 20.5-pt favorites), but it was a lot tougher against Rutgers in the second round. They ended up winning 63-60 (were -7), but had to rally to do so. 

The Cougars have lost only three games this season and the last one was over a month ago at Wichita State. They come into the Sweet 16 on a nine-game win streak and the good news is they often follow a close win with a blowout. Of the nine consecutive victories, three have been by exactly three points each. But the other six wins were all by 24 points or more! Houston is 8-0 ATS this season off an ATS loss, winning those games by an average of nearly 30 PPG! This is a really good team. Most don’t know it yet, but they will after Saturday as Syracuse’s 76.1 PPG allowed when away from home remains a concern. The Orange have shot above 53% overall in the Tournament thus far, but I don’t see that happening here against a team that gives up only 57.9 PPG (#2 in the country). 8* Houston

10* Arkansas (7:25 ET): For just the second time in the NCAA Tournament’s history, a 15-seed has made it to the Sweet 16. The other was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, a run which ended in this round with a double digit loss to Florida. Oral Roberts looks to avoid that same fate on Saturday as they take on 3-seed Arkansas. The Eagles have upset both Ohio State and Florida (ironic!) to get here, which you have to give them credit for doing. But while on a 7-game SU win streak (6-0 ATS L6), five of those wins have come by four points or less and the last four have been by a total of 11 pts (one went to OT). 

This is a regular season rematch as the teams met all the way back on December 20th in Fayetteville. Arkansas won 87-76, but did not cover as 19.5-point favorites. Obviously, this game is not taking place on the Razorbacks’ campus. However, looking at the line for the regular season matchup and comparing it to this one, you can see some value. Personally, I do not believe the loss of “home court advantage” is worth some eight points to the spread. Since the start of February, Arkansas is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. They covered both NCAA Tournament games, beating Colgate 85-68 and Texas Tech 68-66. 

Look for Oral Roberts’ “Cinderella” run to end Saturday. I’ve been high on this Arkansas team for much of the season and now they are playing up to their potential. They are top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency whereas Oral Roberts is 238th. The Hogs already come in averaging 82.0 PPG (#7 in the country), so they should score a ton here. ORU allowed Florida to shoot 55.2% in the last round and somehow won despite being down 11 in the second half. Ohio State was very much overrated. This team finished 4th in the Summit League! They are not in the Razorbacks’ class. 10* Arkansas

10* Western Kentucky (10:00 ET): These Conference USA rivals met twice in the regular season, both times in Bowling Green (that’s WKU) and they split the pair. WKU won the first one, 66-64, but then was a 63-58 loser the following day. LA Tech covered both spreads as they were eight-point underdogs in the first meeting and then obviously an outright winner the second time around. But using those first two lines as “barometers,” it would certainly appear as if we’re getting some decent value on WKU for the “rubber match” as they are now a pick ‘em here in Frisco, TX for the NIT Quarterfinals. 

These were the two division winners in C-USA in the regular season. Both were ousted by eventual winner North Texas in the C-USA Tourney. LA Tech went down first (in the semis) then WKU lost in the final. That tourney final went to OT and was the Hilltoppers’ fourth game in as many days, so I thought it was pretty impressive that they were able to bounce back and defeat a good St. Mary’s team 69-67 in the opening round of the NIT. Though it ended up as a two-point game, WKU took the lead for good with eight minutes to go in the first half. 

Louisiana Tech upset Ole Miss in its first NIT game. They had a full week off between the C-USA Tournament and NIT while WKU had just three days in between their loss to North Texas and the win over St. Mary’s. Now it’s WKU that comes in with more rest for this game as they last played eight days ago while La Tech last played Saturday. The Hilltoppers did not shoot the ball well in either regular season matchup (35% overall), but I look for that to change here as they earn an 11th win away from home this season. 10* Western Kentucky

8* Under Colorado/Florida State (7:45 ET): So we’ve got two teams coming off very efficient wins where they were red-hot from the field. Colorado and Florida State very much won in “different ways,” but I don’t think there’s any denying that neither will be able to match the respective shooting we saw in those first round victories. Colorado made 16 three-pointers as they absolutely annihilated Georgetown 96-73. Florida State didn’t make a single three (0 for 9) in its 64-54 win over UNC Greensboro, but was 64% from inside the arc. 

Colorado was up 24 at halftime vs. Georgetown and saw that lead balloon to 32 in the second half. They shot 60.7% overall from the field, including a ridiculous 16 of 25 from 3-point range. No way they are matching those kinds of numbers here as FSU opponents are shooting less than 40% from the field for the season. The Buffaloes are 6-2 Under this season following a game where they scored 80+ and they are also 21-8 Under the L29 games with just one day of rest. They are 17-5 Under L22 as underdogs. 

Florida State is still 16-7 Over in all games this season, even though the first round win stayed Under. But here they are up against a team that gives up just 63.6 PPG and ranks top 25 in the country in defensive efficiency. I’m sure the Seminoles will make a three (or several!) tonight, but they won’t be matching that shooting from 2-point range they had on Saturday. 8* Under Colorado/Florida State

9* Colorado (7:45 ET): I feel that the wrong team is favored in this #4 vs. #5 (seed) matchup in the East Region. Colorado very much looked like a Final Four team as they completely dismantled Big East Tournament Champion Georgetown 96-73 in the first round. The Buffaloes came out red hot and took a 24-point lead into halftime. They wound up hitting 16 three-pointers for the game and led by as many as 32 at one point. Leading scorer McKinley Wright IV only had 12 points and that didn’t even matter. 

FSU had a bit of a tougher time with UNC Greensboro on Saturday. Though the Seminoles pretty much led wire to wire, they saw a double digit lead cut down to just one in the final five minutes. It wound up being a 10-point victory as the ‘Noles were very efficient from inside the arc, making 25 of 39 two-point attempts. They were 0 for 9 from three-point range, however, and that could be a major problem here as they face a team that just made 16 3PA in its first round game. FSU is just 1-4-1 ATS its L6 games, losing three of them outright despite being a favorite in all six. 

While I don’t think Colorado can possibly shoot as well from 3-point range here as they did vs. G’town, I also am predicting Florida State to have a downturn in its own shooting as well. I’ve been relatively high on this Buffs team all season and very much believe they have Final Four potential. Wright may have only had 12 points, but he had 13 assists and got help from freshman Jabari Walker, who had 24. Colorado is a perfect 8-0 SU this season (and 7-1 ATS) following a game where they scored more than 80 points. 9* Colorado

10* Creighton (6:10 ET): Creighton, a popular pick to get upset in the first round, was able to hold on for a 63-62 win over UCSB on Saturday. They obviously did not cover the spread (-7.5), but HC Greg McDermott will take it as his team got to move on. It’s been a bit of a “trying month” here with McDermott getting himself suspended for poor phrasing and the Bluejays getting clobbered in the Big East Final by Georgetown. But I still believe this is a Sweet 16 worthy club and they get a great break in playing 13-seed Ohio in the Round of 32. 

Ohio caught a massive break with its first round draw against Virginia. Due to COVID protocol, the Hoos weren’t able to practice together and didn’t even arrive in Indianapolis until Friday. This put them at a severe disadvantage and they played like it, shooting only 35% from the field, including 8 of 31 from three-point range. The Bobcats are hardly noted as a great defensive team as they rank 152nd nationally in efficiency, which is easily the worst among the 24 remaining teams in the Tournament (only one other is lower than #86 and that’s LSU). 

Creighton is an elite offensive team that should take advantage of Ohio’s defensive shortcomings. This matchup is similar to Villanova-North Texas, which I cashed in on yesterday. My power ratings suggest that the Bluejays are being significantly undervalued and this line should be double digits. Remember what I said about 13 seeds in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament yday? They remain “0-fer” the L5 Tourneys in the 2nd round, losing by an average of more than 20 PPG. 10* Creighton

9* Villanova (8:45 ET): ‘Nova treated me well on Friday as they were my top Round 1 selection. A popular pick to be upset, the Wildcats instead won and covered, 73-63 as six-point chalk. With so much talk about the injury to PG Colin Gillespie, I think it’s fair to say the Wildcats are being underrated by the oddsmakers right now. I felt it should have been a double digit spread against Winthrop and think the same here as they face 13-seed North Texas. Lay the points here as Jay Wright’s team catches a very favorable second round matchup. 

Tip your cap to North Texas for pulling a 78-69 upset over Purdue in Round 1. The Mean Green were 7.5 point underdogs going into that game and are now 5-0 SU/ATS their L5 overall. But remember the Purdue game did go to overtime as UNT was unable to hold on to its early lead. I thought the Mean Green really caught a big break in that the Boilermakers started out very slow and shot poorly throughout. For the game, Purdue shot 36.2% overall and 30% from 3-pt range. 

Betting against teams seeded 13 or lower in Round 2 is typically the way to go as they struggle to maintain their “momentum” (hate that word) from the first round upsets. In particular, 13 seeds are “0-fer” in the previous four NCAA Tournaments, losing by an average of 18.8 PPG. Again I see some substantial value here on a Villanova team that just won by 10 despite not shooting the ball particularly well. North Texas’ last four victories have all come by fewer than seven points or in overtime. 9* Villanova

10* Florida (7:45 ET): Although they shot a blistering 56.5% from the field, Florida needed OT to get by Va Tech 75-70 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Gators actually trailed by as many as 10 in the first half and were down 44-36 with just 15 minutes to go in regulation. But despite playing short-handed, they found a way to win and that was mostly by dominating the Hokies on the glass (36-22 rebounding edge). Really, had it not been for turnovers and some poor FT shooting, the Gators should have taken the game in regulation.

Meanwhile, 15-seed Oral Roberts became the big surprise of the 1st day of Tourney action by stunning Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs, another game that went to OT. The Eagles, who finished fourth in the Summit League and have the worst defensive efficiency of any team in the NCAA Tournament, pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history despite shooting only 35.7% from the floor. Not to throw “cold water” on the situation, but it’s a game I thought Ohio State really “threw away” in the closing moments of regulation. Turning it over only six times was huge for Oral Roberts.

This matchup reminds me a lot of my top first round selection - Villanova over Winthrop. The line is just way too low. It’s because of injuries on the Florida side (remember ‘Nova was missing its starting PG and still won), but they’ve still got Tre Mann, who has averaged 21.6 points the L5 games and Colin Castleton (who went for 19-14 vs. Va Tech). Oral Roberts really got dominated on the glass by Ohio State (-17) and considering what Florida did to Va Tech, I expect that to happen again here. Only one 15-seed (Fla Gulf Coast) has ever made the Sweet 16 and I don’t like Oral Roberts’ chances of becoming the second. Six straight wins for them sounds nice, but four have been by four points or less. 10* Florida

8* Wisconsin (2:40 ET): The Badgers probably couldn’t have played any better than they did in their 85-62 thrashing of North Carolina on Friday. I was happy to see it. Remember that I said the “wrong team was favored” in that matchup and was on the Badgers. In turning in their fourth largest margin of victory this season, Wisconsin turned it over only seven times vs, UNC while shooting 51% overall and 57% in the second half. Maybe it was the fact the game was played in “familiar territory,” that being Mackey Arena, home of Big 10 rival Pudue. 

Or maybe it’s that the Badgers are simply far better than their seed indicates. Something else I brought up in my analysis of their first round matchup is the fact that their last four losses all came to ranked teams and were by five points or less. While I don’t think they’ll be able to duplicate the 13 of 27 shooting from three-point range we saw vs. UNC, remember that Wisconsin is a top 15 team in defensive efficiency. In the KenPom ratings, they are in the top 12 overall! 

Though they had an easy time in Round 1 vs. Hartford, winning 79-55, Baylor really hasn’t looked the same since its season was paused for three weeks in February. They are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Even against a 16-seed, they struggled to shoot the ball Friday, making only 41.3% of their FG attempts including 11 of 33 from behind the arc. It will get much harder to make shots today. I just think Wisconsin was really underrated coming into this Tournament. They are 11-3 ATS vs. Big 12 teams. 8* Wisconsin

8* Abilene Christian (9:50 ET): There seem to be a lot of trendy underdogs in this Tournament, but I’m not seeing the name Abilene Christian mentioned among them. Maybe that’s because few people follow the Southland Conference. Or maybe it’s because they draw a tough 3-seed in Texas. But the Wildcats know how to defend as they are top 30 nationally in efficiency. They will be a tough out here. Among teams seeded 11th or lower, only Utah State has a higher defensive efficiency rating than Abilene Christian.

No 14-seed has won outright in the L3 NCAA Tournaments. You’d have to go back almost 20 years to find the last time there was a four-year stretch w/o a 14-seed winning. Abilene Christian comes in hot as they’ve won 12 of their last 13 games and steamrolled regular season champ Nicholls 79-45 in the Southland Tournament Final. That defense I mentioned earlier was on full display as they held the Colonels to 29.7% shooting. It was the team’s third consecutive win by 20 or more points.

While Texas (5-0 SU/ATS L5 games) has played very well of late for HC Shaka Smart, four of their last six wins have come by four points or fewer. The past three #3 seeds to lose in the first round were all Big 12 teams. Now I’m not saying the Longhorns lose straight up here, but after winning the Big 12 Tournament they feel a bit overvalued. They are just 1-6 ATS vs. teams averaging 77 or more points per game and Abilene Christian averages 77.6 PPG. Take the points with a dog more people should be talking about. 8* Abilene Christian

8* Norfolk State (9:20 ET): Obviously, I’m not predicting an upset here. But this is a ton of points, the largest spread we’ve seen in the NCAA Tournament thus far and I’m grabbing the points. Norfolk State was a 54-53 winner in the “First Four” Thursday, holding off a comeback attempt by Appalachian State, whom they led by as many as 19 points. I think the close call works in our favor here. Had the Spartans won in blowout fashion, my feeling is this line wouldn’t be nearly as high. For the record, my own power ratings suggest this number should be +30.

Gonzaga is seeking to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to run the table and go undefeated for a full season. There is no doubt that the Zags were the best team in America during the regular season. I agree that they should be the favorite to cut down the nets in three weeks. But covering a spread this large can be problematic. There were several times this year where the Bulldogs got “backdoored.” In the seven games this season where they were favored by at least 30 points, they went just 2-5 ATS.

Norfolk State has covered its last six lined contests. They’ve won seven in a row overall SU. Their leading scorer Devante Carter scored just four points against App State on 1 of 10 shooting. Expect him to play better here. Defensively, the Spartans allowed just 25.8% shooting in the “First Four” game. Obviously, they won’t get that lucky again, but there’s a lot of pressure on Gonzaga this season and I don’t see them winning this game by 30+ points. For the record, their average margin of victory this season is 23.0 PPG. 8* Norfolk State

8* Creighton (3:30 ET): It seems as if the public has turned on Creighton, whether it be due to HC Greg McDermott’s poor choice of words or the team’s hideous showing against Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. Whatever the reason, I’m seeing a great “buy low” opportunity on the Bluejays here in the 1st round vs. UCSB, who did not play a single team from a major conference during the regular season. I expect the underdog Gauchos to really struggle to defend an elite offensive team like Creighton. Lay the points.

UCSB is 18-1 SU its last 19 games, but the lack of quality competition certainly helps explain that record. They rolled in the Big West Tournament, but it is worth mentioning that in their four losses this season, the Gauchos let the opponents shoot 44% from downtown. Creighton is a very good three-point shooting team as they make 36.7% of their attempts from behind the arc. I really don’t know how to explain what happened vs. G’town, other than to say it was “one of those days.” I certainly don’t see that happening again. There have been only two times this season when the Bluejays lost B2B games.

It was basically dreadful shooting in the first half that sunk Creighton in its last game. Look for them to come out hot here. UCSB has not made the Tournament since 2011. My power rankings say this spread should be double digits and that doesn’t even take into account the fact that UCSB’s third leading scorer (Ajare Sanni) has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest. 8* Creighton

10* St. Bonaventure (1:45 ET): LSU is precisely the kind of team I look to play against in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. While the Tigers may be an elite team offensively, their defensive efficiency rating (125th in the country!) really sticks out like a “sore thumb” (in my eyes) and holds them back. They also aren’t a very good rebounding team. The fact that the Bayou Bengals just made it all the way to the SEC Tournament Final cast an even greater public spotlight and this is a great matchup to fade them, IMO. 

St. Bonaventure, rather quietly, won the regular season and tournament championship in the A-10. The Bonnies are 16-4 SU on the season and won/covered all four neutral court games during the regular season. In the A-10 Tourney, they got by both Saint Louis and VCU, two very good teams. Key here is the fact the Bonnies are 16th in the country in defensive efficiency, a huge edge over LSU. In fact, KenPom rates them as the better overall team in this matchup. I like the fact that teams are shooting less than 39% against them for the season. 

Remember that I did take LSU (plus the points) in the SEC Tourney Final vs. Alabama. But the Crimson Tide were also coming off a spirited come from behind win over Tennessee less than 24 hours prior. That was also the third meeting of the season between the teams. St. Bonaventure, a team with five double-digit scorers, is less familiar. LSU, for all its scoring prowess, has just four players averaging more than 4.2 PPG. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS L3 NCAA Tournament games. In a battle of two hot teams, the Bonnies are better. 10* St. Bonaventure

10* Villanova (9:57 ET): It’s the one time of year when I’m looking to FADE underdogs. Bettors are craving upsets during the first round of the NCAA Tournament, which results in many “unfamiliar” sides becoming public darlings. I believe we’ve got one such team here in Winthrop. The fact this is a 12-5 matchup will be sure to attract the public’s eye even more, but the bottom line is that my own personal power ratings suggest this line is substantially off - double the discrepancy of any other first round line vs. my own power ratings. I’ll happily lay the number here. 

Yes, I’m well aware of the fact Villanova lost it starting PG (Collin Gillespie) to a season-ending injury. But they still finished off Creighton without him and should be well-rested coming into Friday after an early exit from the Big East Tournament. (They lost in the closing seconds to Georgetown). That early exit actually marked the second straight loss for the Wildcats and third in the last four games. But the last two were by a combined three points and games they could have easily won. This is the 1st time all year Nova has been off B2B losses. 

Winthrop has just one loss this season and it came by two points to UNC Asheville. They dominated the Big South this year, but that’s a pretty weak conference. The key to this game will be tempo as Winthrop likes to play fast while Villanova doesn’t. I think a massive overadjustment has been made here by the oddsmakers in light of Nova’s B2B losses and the Gillespie injury. I’m going to trust my power ratings here. Winthrop turns the ball over at a fairly high rate and I wonder about their interior defense going against the likes of co-Big East Player of the Year Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. 10* Villanova

analysis soon

analysis soon

8* Liberty (6:25 ET): Here’s an upset bid I do like. Oklahoma State is overvalued right now following a run to the Big 12 Tournament Final. The Cowboys had covered eight in a row before losing to Texas 91-86 (as three-point underdogs) on Saturday. They are 8-2 SU L10 games, the only other loss coming to then-undefeated Baylor. However, a number of those wins were close. Five of them were by five points or less. KenPom has them rated only 30th, very low for a 4-seed, and they aren’t in my Top 25 either. Take the points in this one.

Speaking of win streaks, Liberty hasn’t lost since January 15th. The champions of the Atlantic Sun Conference have won 12 straight, not a surprise as they were double digit favorites for most of the games, but they also covered the spread in the majority of them. The fact that the Flames play at a very slow tempo, which will minimize the number of possessions in this game, should increase variance and improve their upset chances. Their lone double digit loss this year was the opener against Purdue. 

OSU has the likely next #1 overall draft pick in the NBA, Cade Cunningham. But that probably over-values them in the marketplace. This team is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Liberty is 4-1 ATS as a dog. Believe it or not, Oklahoma State has not been favored in any game since they faced an Iowa State team that went winless in Big 12 play, back on February 16th. The only time all year that the Pokes were favored by more than three points against a NCAA Tournament team was the second game of the season vs. Texas Southern (who is in the “First Four.”) 8* Liberty

8* Loyola Chicago (4:00 ET): The Ramblers, everyone’s favorite from the 2018 Tournament (when they made a run to the Final Four) is back and they are DANGEROUS. While seeded only 8th, they led the country in defensive efficiency and are considered a Top 10 team (overall!) at KenPom. This is a team no #1 seed wanted to see in the second round, so Illinois better be prepared. But of course, Loyola must first take care of business in the Round of 64 against Georgia Tech. I think they will. 

Georgia Tech came out of nowhere to win the ACC Tournament. Keep in mind that they got a free pass into the Tournament Final when Virginia had to bow out due to COVID-19. That was after a narrow escape against fledgling Miami, who led them at the half despite playing its third game in as many days. Then, once again playing with a rest advantage, the Yellow Jackets somehow beat Florida State by five in the Final despite the Seminoles shooting 56% from the field and 53.3% from three-point range. The key to that game was FSU turning the ball over an astounding 25 times, leading to 31 Ga Tech points. 

Yes, it’s now an 8-game win streak for the Yellow Jackets, but I believe it’s a great time to “sell high” on them. As I stated earlier, Loyola is no joke. They are 24-4 SU on the year with the only loss in the last two months coming by a single point at Drake (in the second game of a back to back). They allow just 55.5 PPG (also #1 in the country) and are 22-2 SU/16-7-1 ATS when favored. They also shoot 50% themselves. Georgia Tech has very little depth and already has had a player test positive for COVID before arrival in the Tournament bubble. Before the current win streak, the Jackets were only 9-8 SU. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* Utah State (1:45 ET): The Aggies of Utah State finished second in the Mountain West this season and were the runners up in the conference tournament. They are a top 10 team in the country in defensive efficiency. So I like ‘em getting points in this first round matchup with inconsistent Texas Tech. The Aggies have tremendous size in the frontcourt with 7-footer Neemias Queta averaging a double double (15.1 points, 10.0 rebounds) and forward Justin Bean right behind him in both departments (11.3, 7.7). Teams that have size have given Texas Tech problems all season. There’s always an upset or two on the first full day of the Tournament and this may very well be one of them. Take the points.

Texas Tech has gone far in both of its previous NCAA Tournament appearances under HC Chris Beard. You may recall that I was quite high on them during their run to the Championship Game in the last Tournament (2019) where they ultimately fell to Virginia (in overtime). They were an Elite Eight team in 2018. Perhaps it’s this resume why most bettors seem to think the Red Raiders will be fine here. But this particular group is NOT as strong as those previous two Tourney teams. 

This year, Texas Tech ranks “just” 24th in defensive efficiency. That’s obviously still pretty good, but not as good as Utah State and not as good as the 2019 Red Raiders team that was #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech is 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 3-5 SU in its last eight games overall. Utah State is 4-0 ATS after a game where it was held to 60 pts or less. They are 20-6 SU overall L26 games with three of the losses by four points or less. 8* Utah State

10* UCLA (9:57 ET): So UCLA’s regular season did not end well. They come into the NCAA Tourney having lost four in a row, those losses coming to: Colorado, Oregon, USC and Oregon State. Those would be the three teams I considered the best in the Pac 12 and also the team that won the conference tourney. Furthermore, it’s not like the Bruins played poorly in these games. Against USC, they led the whole way - until 1.3 seconds were left and the Trojans hit the GW three-pointer. Their exit at the hands of Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarterfinals may have been even more painful as they blew a 16 pt lead. 

You will probably hear numerous times about how Michigan State has wins over Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan in the last month. While that is rather impressive, Sparty was a clear underachiever this season. That’s evident by their 9-18 ATS record, which includes 3-11 when favored. They had those three impressive wins, but they also lost by 30 to Iowa and Rutgers. In three of their last five games, MSU failed to score 60 points, including a 68-57 exit against Maryland in the Big 10 Tournament. 

The fact UCLA has shot better than 50% its L5 games, but gone 1-4 SU, is a bit mystifying. They led the Pac 12 in three-point shooting this year at 39%. I think the Bruins are going to be a handful for a MIchigan State team that has just THREE wins outside of East Lansing this season while averaging just 63.5 PPG. UCLA has five double digit scorers, led by Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang’s 14.0 PPG. They’ve led at the half in each of the L4 games, but are 0-4 SU! That’s insane! They are the better team here and should be favored. 10* UCLA

9* LSU (1:00 ET): I thought for sure that we “had” Alabama yesterday as Tennessee, a 4.5-point underdog, was up 48-33 early in the second half. But not only could the Vols not hold the lead, they failed to cover, losing 73-68. Thus the Crimson Tide, the regular season champs of the SEC, can now win their first conference tournament since 1991. LSU’s drought is even longer (1980) and they are the opposition after upsetting #2 seed Arkansas (who I have a lot of respect for) 78-71 on Saturday. The Tigers were 3.5-pt dogs yday, which is what my power ratings say the line should be here. Grab the points. 

LSU is #6 in the country in offensive efficiency and comes in averaging 82.4 PPG. So it typically takes a lot of points to defeat them. This is a double revenge game for the Tigers as they were blown out in both regular season matchups by Alabama. One of those was an awful 105-75 loss in Tuscaloosa while the other (in Baton Rouge) saw them lose by 18. So I guess I’m not surprised that this number has been bet up this morning. But I don’t think those regular season encounters are really indicative of the discrepancy between these two squads. 

While Alabama is certainly deserving of their Top 10 ranking and a team you should pay careful attention to when filling out your bracket this week, LSU is in my Top 25 as well. I see the underdog keeping this one closer than expected on Sunday. It’s the third game in three days for both teams and an outright upset seems more likely than a blowout. Alabama easily could have lost yesterday. They are without freshman guard Joshua Primo. While LSU is a bit suspect at the defensive end, they do defend the three-point line well as you saw yday vs. Arkansas. I think they’ll shoot better from distance here than they did in either regular season matchup with Bama. 9* LSU

10* Colgate (12:00 ET): A rare visit to the Patriot League for myself. This tournament has been spread out over the course of the last week with all the games played at campus sites, hosted by the higher seed. With top-seed Navy bounced in the quarterfinals (by Loyola MD), Colgate became the favorite and will host the Tournament Final. The Raiders have been big favorites in both of their tourney games so far. After not covering against Boston U in the quarters (won by 8 as 12-pt chalk), they annihilated Bucknell 105-75 (were -11) in the semis.

Loyola MD, the 9-seed, caught a break in that they were supposed to play in the first round of the tournament but Holy Cross forfeited due to COVID. Then came B2B upsets, first over top seed Navy, then over 4-seed Army. The Greyhounds are only 6-10 SU on the year, including the two upsets in this tournament. They did not face Colgate in the regular season. But they are 0-7 SU their L7 visits here. I’d be absolutely stunned if Loyola pulled a third consecutive upset here.

The Greyhounds’ good fortune continued beyond the Holy Cross forfeit as Navy was without two starters, so that helps explain that upset. The only loss for Colgate (13-1 SU) this season was by two points to Army. They are second in the country in scoring (86.4 PPG), trailing only Gonzaga, and have outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 PPG. A win here would give the program its first NCAA Tournament appearance in a quarter century (the Adonal Foyle days!). They were probably the best team in the Patriot League this season  and I expect them to dominate this game. 10* Colgate

10* North Texas (9:00 ET): This is the C-USA Tournament Final. The winner goes to the NCAA Tournament, the loser will not. North Texas and Western Kentucky did not meet in the regular season. The last time they played was just over a year ago when North Texas won in overtime 78-72. Now they’ll try and do something they have not done since 2015 and that’s cover the spread against the Hilltoppers. The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS L8 head to head matchups, but are favored here and that’s telling. 

North Texas has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2010. They’ve won three games in three days this weekend, holding their opponents to an average of 53.5 PPG. That’s obviously very impressive, but probably should be expected seeing as the team is 10th in the country in scoring defense at 61.4 PPG. After crushing Middle Tennessee by 20 in their first tourney game, it’s been B2B six-point wins over Old Dominion and La Tech. The Mean Green are 8-1 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less and they gave up just 48 on Friday. 

WKU is also strong at the defensive end. Over its last six games, they’ve allowed just 62 PPG on 39% shooting. Over the last two months, only one team has scored more than 71 points against them and that was Top 10 Houston. But those defensive numbers aren’t as good as what North Texas has produced. The Hilltoppers trailed UAB at the half yday despite shooting 50% from 3-point range. The player to watch here is UNT’s Javion Hamlet, who has averaged 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists in this tournament. 10* North Texas

8* Iowa (3:30 ET): I’ve got Iowa rated as the better team, so I’m taking the points here. Now there is no denying that Illinois is rolling. A couple months ago when they were underachieving a bit, I said to watch out for the Fighting Illini. They come into Saturday on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak including an impressive 90-68 thrashing of Rutgers last night. But just like the Illini, I feel Iowa is one of the five best teams in the country. It speaks to the strength of the Big 10 that such a matchup would take place in the tournament semifinals. 

Iowa won 62-57 yesterday, their second close win over Wisconsin in the last week. That they were able to win in such low-scoring fashion really impressed me. The Hawkeyes are typically known for out-scoring their opposition as they rank #2 in the country in offensive efficiency and #4 in points per game (84.2). That they held Wisconsin to just 57 points was a real nice “change of pace.” Uncharacteristically, they shot just 2 of 20 from three-point range. Look for that to turn around in a major way here. 

Presumed Player of the Year Luke Garza still scored 24 yday. This will be just the fifth time all season that Iowa is an underdog. The last time saw them go to Ohio State and win big. While Illinois has won 12 of 13, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 SU their L9 games (only loss at Michigan). The Illini did take the lone regular season meeting, but by only five points and that was in Champaign-Urbana. Illinois is only 1-4 ATS when coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. Iowa is undervalued here. 8* Iowa

8* Ohio State (1:00 ET): Friday marked the second day in a row that Ohio State failed to protect a big lead, yet managed to survive and advance. They were up 18 at the half on Purdue yday, but saw that entire lead slip away over the course of the last 20 minutes of regulation and overtime was needed to decide things. As you know, the Buckeyes were my 10* Game of the Week. I couldn’t watch any longer, so I actually turned the game off. I was quite pleased several minutes later when I checked my phone and saw that they won 87-78, easily covering the 1-point spread.

Because their last two games have ended up being close, we’re getting another good value on Ohio State today. I brought up a 5-game ATS losing skid they were on going into yesterday. That’s over now. They also led Minnesota by 14 with 3 ½ minutes to go on Thursday. So the Buckeyes have played pretty well in this tournament. They’ve just struggled to protect leads. That’s less of an issue now that they come in as the underdog, a role they have been in just twice since the start of February. 

The last time OSU was an underdog was against Michigan, a game they lost 92-87. That’s one of three losses by 5 points or less that they’ve suffered since Feb 21. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year since before X-Mas. Michigan’s game yesterday was just the opposite of Ohio State’s. The Wolverines trailed by 12 early before storming back. I expect this one to be close as my power ratings say the number should be closer to +3. Ohio State has five outright wins as a dog this season and is 4-1 ATS the L5 times catching points. 8* Ohio State

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Both teams won their quarterfinal games in blowout fashion yesterday. Alabama hammered Mississippi State 85-48 as 7.5-point chalk. As impressive a win as that was, Tennessee beating a good Florida team by double digits may have impressed me more. The Volunteers never trailed in the contest and were up by as many as 17 in the second half. Now it’s looking likely that they’ll be without senior John Fulkerson for this game. But that’s caused the number to balloon and the Vols are a really good value here getting points. 

I have these teams rated pretty evenly. Fulkerson does lead Tennessee in field goal percentage, but they also have three double digit scorers to pick up the slack. Then you’ve got Yves Pons, who nearly had a triple double yesterday with 11 points, eight rebounds and nine blocks. Alabama could also be missing one of its standouts, starting guard Josh Primo, as he left yday’s game with an apparent knee injury. If Primo were to be out, that would certainly “cancel out” the Fulkerson injury. 

Alabama probably could not have played any better than they did yesterday. They were up huge most of the game, forced MSU to turn it over 18 times and held them to 1 of 19 from three-point range. But Tennessee will be tougher. To me, the Vols are a Top 25 team (even though they are not ranked). They’ve got revenge from a loss in the regular season. The Crimson Tide are just 1-4 ATS following a win by 20+ points and I feel are being overvalued off the big blowout win. Take the points. 8* Tennessee

8* Under Oregon State/Oregon (8:30 ET): Oregon State’s impressive ATS run continued yesterday as they knocked out UCLA 83-79 in Pac 12 quarterfinal action. It was the Beavers’ 14th cover in the last 17 games. Here they’ll face one of the teams they failed to cover against, top-seed Oregon, who beat them 80-67 in the regular season finale at Corvallis. Note that OSU did take the season’s first meeting, 75-64 in Eugene, but that came at a time when the Ducks were playing very short-handed. 

Oregon had no problems yesterday as they blew out Arizona State 91-73 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Sun Devils were playing their second game in as many as days (I won w/ them on Weds). Oregon was insanely hot from the field in the second half, scoring 56 points while not missing consecutive shots for almost a 15-minute stretch! The Ducks wound up shooting 59% for the game, including 10 of 18 from three-point range, the type of clip that will be awfully hard to duplicate here against their rivals. That said, the Ducks did shoot 57.4% overall and 65.2% in the regular season finale. 

You’ve got to think Oregon’s shooting HAS to cool down though as they are above 58% the L3 games and the Over is 6-0 L6 games. Couple that with the fact Oregon State’s final score yday was a byproduct of OT and I think you’ve got a great situation to play the Under here. The Beavers were down 16 in the 2H against UCLA before storming back with a shocking rally. Both teams are now playing w/o rest, so that’s a perfect time for them to “cool off” from the field. OSU was only averaging 63.4 PPG away from home this season going into yesterday. 8* Under Oregon State/Oregon

10* Ohio State (2:30 ET): It speaks to the overall strength of the Big 10 that this, a matchup of Top 20 teams, would be a quarterfinal matchup in the conference tournament. Ohio State had to win yesterday just to get here. They beat Minnesota 79-75, however they failed to cover the 11-point spot. It was the Buckeyes fifth consecutive ATS loss, a streak which also happens to include four STRAIGHT UP losses. Conversely, Purdue SURGED at the end of the regular season, winning and covering its last five games.

I think those respective ATS streaks set us up with a nice value on Ohio State today. It certainly is telling that the lower seed is favored, albeit slightly, against a rested opponent. The Buckeyes’ losing streak featured numerous “close calls” as losses to Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan were all by 5 points or less. While I do have serious questions about the Buckeyes’ defense come NCAA Tournament time, they did a decent enough job at that end in two regular season meetings vs. Purdue (allowed 67 pts both games).

Now the Boilermakers won both (regular season matchups), one by two points and the other by seven (back in December). So in addition to being a “buy low” spot on OSU, it’s also a matter of double revenge. I also think this is a good time to “sell high” on Purdue, who came from the middle of the pack to “steal” a double bye from the Buckeyes. Ohio State got off to a 13-0 start in yday’s game and was up 14 with 3 ½ minutes remaining. So the fact they did not cover was disappointing. Purdue’s schedule over the last month was relatively weak by Big 10 standards. 10* Ohio State

9* Montana State (4:00 ET): Montana State is a putrid 0-8 ATS its last eight games, but they are still favored to win this quarterfinal matchup in the Big Sky Tournament against Idaho State. I think that’s telling, especially considering the Bobcats are the lower seed. Admittedly, we’re talking about a 5-seed over a 4-seed, but I think this is a great “buy low” spot. Regulars may recall that I took Idaho State last week as a big underdog against Eastern Washington. They shocked even me by winning that game outright. Almost immediately though, they reverted back to prior form, losing the rematch 75-62. 

So Idaho State has dropped three of four coming into this tournament. Granted, that’s not as bad as Montana State dropping six of eight. But save for the shocker over Eastern Washington that I was on, the Bengals don’t have a lot of impressive wins on their resume. The bottom four teams in the Big Sky are all quite bad and that’s who six of the seven wins in January/February were against. The other was against a non-DI team.

In case you’re wondering, no, these teams did not play in the regular season. They were supposed to in early February, but those games were cancelled. The favorite is 11-2 ATS the L13 head to head matchups. Montana State had to play Eastern Washington and Weber State a total of four times down the stretch, which helps explain the swoon. (Those are the two best teams in the league). The Bobcats are coming off a 1-point loss and should be highly motivated to win today. 9* Montana State

10* Seton Hall (3:00 ET): IMMEDIATE REVENGE! Seton Hall lost to St. John’s in the regular season finale 81-71 as a 2.5-point favorite. Full disclosure - I had the Pirates in that game. Things definitely looked good early as the Pirates scored the game’s first 18 points! At halftime, they led 38-28. But things fell apart after that as the Johnnies scored a season-high 53 in the 2H and thus earned the 4-seed for this Big East Tournament. Ultimately, the seeding designation meant nothing as here we are with the teams playing yet again. 

Seton Hall has lost four straight times as a favorite and is 0-6 ATS its L6 overall. But I’m going to “double down” here on them. The fact they were up 18-0 and lost Saturday is pretty ridiculous. They did beat St. John’s in the first meeting of the season, 77-68 as 6-point chalk. This late season swoon may very well end up costing the Pirates a NCAA Tournament berth. Right now, they are in the “Next Four Out” category according to Joe Lunardi. But there’s still time to change that. As I anticipated, the offense did get back on track a little bit Saturday. It was their second highest scoring game since Valentine’s Day. St. John’s is terrible defensively as they allow almost 80 PPG away from home. 

There were two times I faded the Red Storm in February and both bets were successful. One was when they faced DePaul as 11.5-point chalk and they lost that game outright. PG Posh Alexander (thumb) may return Thursday, but I still have the Johnnies as the lower-rated side here. Their lack of defense is a huge liability and has cost them games in the past. Seton Hall is much better than the recent results show and they are 17-5-1 ATS their L23 neutral site games. 10* Seton Hall